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This move comes in conjunction with broader market gains, as S&P 500 futures are up 0.4%, indicating a positive sentiment across the market.

• Oracle stock is showing exceptional strength. What’s behind ORCL gains?

Partners With IMSA Labs On Cloud Innovation StudioOracle disclosed its partnership with the International Motor Sports Association (IMSA) as the founding partner of IMSA Labs, launching the Oracle Cloud Innovation Studio.

This initiative aims to assist startups in developing solutions using Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, leveraging real-time data from live race operations.

The solutions developed through Oracle Cloud Innovation Studio target challenges such as high-volume data processing, real-time decision-making, edge computing and distributed systems.

ORCL Technical Outlook: Momentum Weak Below Key AveragesThe stock’s current price of $141.30 is significantly below its moving averages, with the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at $163.34, indicating a 9.7% gap. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is currently below its signal line, suggesting that momentum is fading, which could signal a potential reversal unless the stock can reclaim that baseline.

Oracle Earnings Preview and Analyst Price TargetsOracle is slated to provide its next financial update on Sept. 8 (estimated).

EPS Estimate: $1.67 (Up from $1.47) Revenue Estimate: $19.12 billion (Up from $14.93 billion) Valuation: P/E of 24.1x (Indicates fair valuation) Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy rating with a consensus price target of $268.79. Recent analyst moves include:

Bernstein: Outperform (Raises target to $325 on June 11) RBC Capital: Sector Perform (Maintains target to $190 on June 11) TD Cowen: Buy (Maintains target to $300 on June 11) How Oracle Ranks On Value, Growth and MomentumBelow is the Benzinga Edge scorecard for Oracle, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses compared to the broader market:

Value: 20.51 — Trading at a steep premium relative to peers. Growth: 81.73 — Strong growth potential indicated. Momentum: 7.54 — Stock is underperforming the broader market. The Verdict: Oracle’s Benzinga Edge signal reveals a growth-heavy profile, but with weak momentum indicators suggesting potential challenges ahead. Investors may want to consider these factors as they evaluate Oracle’s future performance.

Top ETFs Holding Oracle Stock (ORCL)Significance: Because Oracle carries such a heavy weight in these funds, any significant inflows or outflows for these ETFs will likely force automatic buying or selling of the stock.

ORCL Stock Trades Higher As Markets RiseORCL Stock Price Activity: Oracle shares were up 3.46% at $145.38 at the time of publication on Thursday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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Key Takeaways Molson Coors is advancing Horizon 2030 by expanding premium beer and beyond-beer categories.TAP is benefiting from premium brands, pricing actions and a $450 million cost-savings program.TAP is investing in innovation, marketing and acquisitions to support long-term profitable growth. Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP - Free Report) is one of the leading brewers, having a strong portfolio of well-established brands. The company is focused on strengthening its core beer business while expanding into faster-growing beverage categories under its Horizon 2030 strategy. It is focused on premiumization and innovation to strengthen its core beer portfolio.

The company is benefiting from stronger performance in premium brands and using targeted pricing and improved mix to aid revenue growth despite volume pressures. Management highlighted solid momentum in above-premium offerings such as Peroni, Blue Moon and Coors Banquet, while value brands like Miller High Life and Keystone are being supported through targeted innovation and localized execution.

Molson Coors’ Horizon 2030 strategy to drive sustainable top-line growth bodes well. The plan focuses on strengthening its core brands, expanding in above-premium beer and accelerating its presence in faster-growing beyond beer categories. The company continues to invest in commercial capabilities, technology and marketing, while leveraging acquisitions such as Fever-Tree and Monaco Cocktails to broaden its portfolio and enhance growth.

TAP’s cost savings to support long-term value creation appear encouraging. The company is executing a three-year $450 million cost savings program, including restructuring and supply-chain optimization initiatives, to offset inflation and fund strategic investments. Such actions, combined with Molson Coors’ disciplined capital allocation, position it to improve profitability and create long-term shareholder value.

Overall, Molson Coors is positioned to improve long-term growth through its Horizon 2030 strategy, continued premiumization, portfolio diversification beyond beer and disciplined cost-management initiatives. While sluggishness in the Americas business and macroeconomic pressures with a soft beer industry remain near-term challenges, the company's focus on operational efficiency, innovation and higher-margin brands should support sustainable growth.

TAP’s Price Performance, Valuation and EstimatesShares of Molson Coors have lost 13.9% in the past three months compared with the industry’s drop of 1.2%.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation standpoint, TAP trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 7.91X compared with the industry’s average of 14.99X.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TAP’s 2026 earnings per share (EPS) shows a decline of 11.4% while that of 2027 indicates year-over-year growth of 4.2%. The company’s EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been stable in the past 30 days.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Molson Coors stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Stocks to Consider in the Consumer Staples Space United Natural Foods (UNFI - Free Report) , which is a major distributor of natural, organic and specialty food and non-food products, currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for United Natural Foods’ current financial-year sales indicates a drop of 2.1% from the prior-year level. UNFI delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 29.9%, on average.

Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD - Free Report) , which manufactures and distributes frozen foods, currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

The consensus estimate for Nomad Foods’ current financial-year sales is expected to rise 0.5% from the year-ago reported figure. NOMD delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.6%, on average.

Medifast, Inc. (MED - Free Report) , which is a leading manufacturer and distributor of clinically-proven healthy living products and programs, currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2. MED delivered an average earnings surprise of 65.5% in the last reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Medifast’s current financial-year sales indicates a decline of 26% from the year-ago number.

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The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLV) is the default healthcare allocation for millions of investors, and for good reason. XLV owns the entire S&P 500 healthcare complex in one ticker: insurers, device makers, biotech, and Big Pharma. It has returned 21.61% over the past year and 159.84% over ten years. If the reason for holding XLV is simply broad sector exposure, it does that job well. The reason to look past it is narrower: investors who bought XLV specifically to participate in the GLP-1 obesity boom are getting a heavily diluted version of that trade, and a small thematic fund, the LeaderShares Dr. Bill Grace Global Obesity ETF (NYSEARCA:OZEM) offers a more direct route.

Why XLV Waters Down the Obesity Trade The GLP-1 franchise is concentrated in two companies: Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY | LLY Price Prediction) and Novo Nordisk. Lilly’s Q1 2026 results underline the scale. Revenue reached $19.8 billion, up 55.5% year over year, with Mounjaro at $8.66 billion (+125%) and Zepbound at $4.16 billion (+80%). Non-GAAP EPS came in at $8.55. CEO David Ricks said, “2026 is off to a strong start, we delivered 56% revenue growth… raised full-year revenue guidance by $2 billion.” The FDA has since approved Foundayo (orforglipron), the first oral GLP-1 pill with no food or water restrictions.

Lilly’s stock reflects this: shares are up 54.8% over the past year and 433.36% over five years, with a market cap of roughly $1.07 trillion. Yet within XLV, Lilly is the largest single position, accounting for roughly 16% of the fund. While that provides significant exposure, the remaining 84% of the fund is spread across insurers, device makers, and legacy pharma. For investors whose core thesis is specifically the metabolic-disease franchise, the heavy allocation to non-obesity segments can dampen the impact of Lilly’s specific trajectory.”

What OZEM Actually Owns If you’re looking at the obesity and GLP-1 supply chain, OZEM is the fund that comes up most often. According to its March 31, 2026, NPORT filing, Lilly is its largest holding at 16.10% of net assets, with Novo Nordisk right behind at 13.13%. Put those two together, and the two drugmakers that dominate the category represent 29.23% of the fund. For context, that is a materially higher single-theme weighting than either name individually delivers in XLV.

The remainder is a mix of GLP-1 developers and adjacencies: Viking Therapeutics at 5.29%, Zealand Pharma at 3.60%, Structure Therapeutics at 2.38%, plus Chinese biotech exposure through Innovent, Ascletis, and CSPC. Broader pharma names such as Pfizer (7.56%) and Amgen (3.94%) round out the book. The fund also carried a 12.89% cash position at the March filing, which can dampen performance during rapid market rallies, though it provides the manager with the liquidity needed to navigate the extreme volatility typical of small-cap biotech stocks.

The Tradeoffs Are Real The swap involves real tradeoffs. OZEM returned 32.8% over the past year, better than XLV’s 21.61%, but well behind Lilly’s 54.8%. Novo Nordisk shares fell 25.53% over the same period, and that weighting, combined with the cash drag and small-cap biotech volatility, explains the gap. Year-to-date, OZEM is actually down 1.18% while XLV is up 5.51%.

Other considerations: OZEM’s total net assets sit at just $51.4 million, which means wider bid-ask spreads and closure risk if inflows stall. Thematic ETFs also carry higher expense ratios than sector SPDRs, and Lilly itself faces pricing pressure, with realized prices down and Mounjaro added to China’s national reimbursement list. A prospectus review is warranted before committing capital.

How to Think About the Swap PineBridge’s 2026 equity outlook notes that “In 2026, we will see the expansion of obesity treatments to the broader population as lower-cost, easier-to-administer oral pill versions of the current injectable GLP-1s are introduced to the market.” That backdrop supports thematic exposure, but the vehicle matters.

For an investor whose XLV position is designed to capture the obesity story, three paths are available. Owning Lilly directly has delivered the cleanest exposure by a wide margin. A partial OZEM sleeve alongside XLV preserves diversification while raising the weighting to GLP-1 developers globally. Keeping XLV as-is remains defensible for anyone who wants the whole sector rather than one theme within it. In a taxable account, trimming XLV to fund the switch would realize gains that should be weighed against the incremental exposure, since XLV itself already owns Lilly. The decision hinges on how narrow the reader wants the bet to be.

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Palo Alto Networks CEO Nikesh Arora warned that token costs need to drop as much as 90% to promote large-scale artificial intelligence adoption.

"I think 54% is a good start," Arora told CNBC's Seema Mody on "Squawk on the Street" Thursday, after OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told CNBC that the frontier lab's latest model is 54% more token-efficient for agentic coding. "I think we probably need another turn at it."

Arora said token efficiency needs to drop to as much as 20% over the next twelve months, and 90% by the following year.

Rising token costs have emerged as a major pain point for businesses and put a strain on AI budgets. The current pricing, he said, makes AI tools increasingly difficult for businesses to implement.

"We need to see the pricing for AI come down," Arora said.

Arora is among a growing group of executives pushing for a decline in token pricing. The worry is that high token costs create a major barrier to widespread adoption, preventing many enterprises from using the tools.

Read more CNBC tech newsChinese lidar maker with Nvidia ties accused of being cyber risk for U.S.China's Alibaba bans Anthropic AI for employees after 'distillation attack' accusationSpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell to donate stock to Trump AccountsMicrosoft cuts 4,800 jobs, as Xbox unit downsizes and plans to spin off four gaming studiosLast week, Palantir CEO Alex Karp blasted the token model used by Anthropic and OpenAI, and called open-weight models a potential solution.

"I'm not throwing shade at them, but something has gone completely wrong," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box." "The basic view among enterprises in this country is I'm going to chillax and waste my time with tokens."

The token problem is leading many businesses to implement cheaper open-weight tools, including Chinese models that are quickly closing the gap with American labs.

At the same time, AI spending is accelerating to new highs to power the massive infrastructure buildout. Tech giants are also looking for new ways to fund these AI investments, with SpaceX raising $25 billion last month in a bond sale. Amazon raised $25 billion in debt this week.

Arora said the market will start to come to terms with the spending, or businesses will adjust to the market. Budgets will also decline as the technology becomes more efficient.

"It's important to understand the demand continues to be infinite, and as long as you have an infinite demand curve that you're facing, I think all these things will rationalize over time," he said.

Lucid Group stock is moving in positive territory. What’s driving LCID shares up? What Is Driving Lucid Group’s Recent Performance?Lucid produced 4,774 vehicles and delivered 3,953 in the quarter ended June 30, and it paired that update with a leadership overhaul aimed at simplifying the org chart and tightening accountability under CEO Silvio Napoli. The shakeup is designed to halve the number of direct reports to the CEO, with Alexander De Bock set to replace Taoufiq Boussaid after a handover.

Lucid also named Raja Ramana Macha as CTO, Billy Hayes as Chief Customer Officer and Kay Stepper as President of Lucid Technologies and Chief Digital Officer. Hayes’ remit spans sales, service, marketing and regional P&L across the U.S., Middle East and Europe, effective immediately.

Critical Technical Levels for LCID StockAt $5.89, LCID is back above its shorter-term trend gauges—trading 5.6% above the 20-day SMA ($5.64) and 1.5% above the 50-day SMA ($5.86)—but it’s still in a longer-term downtrend, sitting 21.5% below the 100-day SMA ($7.58) and 47.3% below the 200-day SMA ($11.28). That "short-term bounce inside a bigger downtrend" look is reinforced by bearish crossovers (the 20-day SMA below the 50-day, and the 50-day below the 200-day).

Momentum is best framed through RSI, which is neutral at 51.90—basically saying the stock isn’t stretched and is still trading more like a range than a runaway trend. For non-technicians, RSI is a quick way to gauge whether recent buying or selling has become overheated; near-50 readings often line up with choppy, two-sided trade.

Key levels are tight enough to matter for swing traders watching follow-through from the June low and the July rebound attempt.

Key Resistance: $7.00 — a round-number ceiling that also lines up with the area the stock would need to reclaim to start repairing the gap to the 100-day averages Key Support: $5.50 — a nearby floor close to the 20-day SMA zone where buyers have recently shown up What Is Lucid Group and Its Business Model?Lucid Group is a technology and automotive company focused on developing next-generation EV technologies, with a direct-to-consumer model that includes geographically distributed retail and service locations. Its approach leans on in-house hardware and software innovation, vertical integration and clean-sheet engineering—work that underpins the Lucid Air luxury sedan.

That backdrop matters for Thursday’s trade because the market is weighing execution: production/delivery cadence on one hand, and organizational focus on the other. The new structure (including a distinct Lucid Technologies business unit focused on strategic partnerships and advanced technologies like autonomy, ADAS, AI and robotaxis) is a clear attempt to sharpen accountability while keeping longer-dated tech optionality in the story.

Current Price Action for LCID Stock on ThursdayLCID Stock Price Activity: Lucid Group shares were up 1.55% at $5.91 at the time of publication on Thursday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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The move strengthens Toyota’s North American manufacturing footprint at a time when supply-chain resilience and domestic production have become increasingly important for global automakers.

Yet despite that aggressive investment, Toyota continues to be viewed as a value stock.

The automaker currently ranks among Benzinga Edge’s Top Value Stocks, reflecting its inexpensive valuation metrics and strong profitability. That creates an interesting disconnect: Toyota is spending like a company preparing for its next phase of growth, while Wall Street continues to value it like a mature automaker.

Toyota Still Trades Like A Value StockToyota’s valuation helps explain why it continues to earn a place among the market’s top value names.

According to Benzinga Pro data, the stock trades at just 9.7 times trailing earnings and 10.8 times forward earnings. It also carries an earnings yield of 10.3% and an EV-to-EBITDA multiple of 8.0—metrics typically associated with value stocks rather than companies making multibillion-dollar expansion bets.

Rather than conserving cash, Toyota is investing heavily to localize production, strengthen its U.S. manufacturing footprint and reinforce its position in the profitable North American truck market. The company has also continued leaning on its hybrid strategy, which has helped it outperform many rivals as EV demand has moderated.

For investors, the question is whether Wall Street is fully recognizing what Toyota is becoming—or still valuing what it has historically been.

TM Stock Chart Suggests Sentiment May Be ImprovingToyota’s technical picture suggests investors may already be warming to that idea.

Although the shares remain down 18.7% year to date, they’ve gained 5.5% over the past five trading sessions and are up nearly 4% over the past year, indicating buying interest has started to return after months of weakness.

Chart created using Benzinga Pro

The stock has also reclaimed its short-term moving averages, while the MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) indicator is recovering from the negative territory, signaling that bullish momentum is building. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near the neutral 50 level, suggesting the shares are neither overbought nor oversold and could have room to build on their recent rebound.

The next technical level investors may be watching is the 50-day moving average, which could act as the next test for a sustained breakout.

Investment TakeawayToyota’s $3.6 billion Texas expansion isn’t simply another factory announcement.

It’s a strategic investment in manufacturing flexibility, localized production and one of the world’s most profitable pickup markets. Yet even as the company commits billions to future growth, the stock continues to trade at the kind of valuation typically reserved for mature value companies—a view reinforced by its place among Benzinga Edge’s Top Value Stocks.

If Toyota’s manufacturing investment begins translating into stronger earnings growth and improving investor sentiment, Wall Street may eventually have to decide whether the company still belongs in the bargain bin—or whether its valuation deserves a second look.

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Key Takeaways Carvana lowered non-GAAP SG&A expense by $170 per retail unit as retail unit sales rose 40% in Q1 2026.CVNA expects more SG&A leverage from efficiency gains and fixed-cost leverage as retail volumes increase. Carvana plans to keep investing in advertising while funding technology and AI initiatives for growth. Carvana Co. (CVNA - Free Report) delivered another strong quarter of SG&A expense leverage in the first quarter of 2026. The company’s 40% increase in retail units sold reduced non-GAAP SG&A expense by $170 per retail unit sold, including a $36 decline in operations expenses and a $226 decline in overhead expenses per unit. Carvana expects significant SG&A leverage opportunities as the business continues to scale, driven by both operational efficiencies and leverage from the fixed components of its cost structure.

Operations expenses include costs associated with executing transactions, providing customer service, fulfilling orders through the logistics network and completing last-mile deliveries. These expenses are relatively variable in nature. During the quarter, operations expenses declined slightly year over year, reflecting continued efficiency improvements. The company expects further reductions in operations expense per retail unit over the long term, although quarterly results can be affected by factors such as fuel prices because logistics costs are included in this category.

Overhead expenses represent the more fixed portion of the cost structure. While these costs can increase when the company makes strategic investments, such as its current investments in additional technology and AI-related initiatives, Carvana expects substantial leverage in this category as retail volumes continue to grow. The first quarter demonstrated strong progress in spreading these fixed costs across a larger sales base.

Advertising remains the third major SG&A category. Carvana has been increasing advertising spending to further build consumer awareness, understanding and trust in its platform. As a result, the company expects advertising investment to remain an important component of its growth strategy even as it continues to pursue efficiency gains in operations and overhead expenses. CVNA currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

What Are the SG&A Prospects for Other Auto Retailers?AutoNation, Inc.’s (AN - Free Report) operating efficiency remains a concern as SG&A has moved above the company’s long-term target range. In the first quarter of 2026, AutoNation’s adjusted SG&A was 69.8% of gross profit versus the 66% to 67% target range, reflecting higher marketing spend, strategic customer experience investments and unfavorable self-insurance experience related to weather events. AutoNation expects SG&A to moderate in subsequent quarters but remain above the targeted range, which can restrain operating income growth if revenues remain under pressure.

Penske Automotive Group, Inc.’s (PAG - Free Report) expense base is proving sticky even as gross profit softens, which reduces operating leverage in a slower volume environment. In the first quarter of 2026, Penske’s SG&A rose modestly year over year while gross profit declined, and the company attributed the gap to higher employee benefit costs, higher U.K. payroll taxes and social programs, and higher rent and real estate taxes. Penske highlighted that rent increases tend to recur, and benefit costs have not been moving lower, which can keep earnings improvement uneven if unit volumes remain pressured.

Carvana’s Price Performance, Valuation and EstimatesCarvana has underperformed the Zacks Internet – Commerce industry in the last six months. CVNA shares have plunged 28.6% compared with the industry’s decline of 7.3%.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

 
From a valuation perspective, Carvana appears overvalued. Going by its price/sales ratio, the company is trading at a forward sales multiple of 2.28, higher than its industry’s 1.91.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

 
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Carvana’s 2026 and 2027 EPS has moved up 5 cents and 4 cents, respectively, in the past 60 days. 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Keysight Delivers New High-Performance 4x100GE Network Cybersecurity Test Platform Keysight Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: KEYS) today announced the APS-ONE-400, a modular network cybersecurity test platform. This new 4x100GE platform significantly boosts performance for Layer 4-7 traffic, encrypted traffic, and Elephant Flow traffic all within a 1 rack unit (RU) system. It enables network equipment manufacturers (NEMs), service providers, and data center operators to validate demanding scenarios while lowering overall infrastructure requirements.

This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260709611791/en/

The Keysight APS-ONE-400 4x100GE modular network cybersecurity test platform delivers hyperscale L4-7 traffic, encrypted TLS traffic, security strikes, and Elephant Flows via a 1RU footprint that minimizes rack space usage, power consumption, and cooling demands.

The growing complexity and volume of network loads — including legitimate and malicious traffic, post-quantum cryptography (PQC)-encrypted traffic, Zero Trust Network Access (ZTNA), and the Elephant Flow transmissions common in AI and large language model (LLM) workloads — require network equipment manufacturers (NEMs), service providers, and data center operators to validate that their solutions can withstand these demands prior to deployment. However, this often requires multiple specialized test tools that can drive up costs and consume limited lab resources.

To address this challenge, Keysight developed the APS-ONE-400 appliance, an addition to its APS-100/400GE hardware family. The new modular, scalable 4x100GE network application and cybersecurity test platform generates hyperscale Layer 4-7 traffic, PQC-encrypted Transport Layer Security (TLS) throughput, security strikes, and ZTNA test capabilities — all within a compact 1RU footprint that improves lab efficiency.

The APS-ONE-400 4x100GE test platform offers the following benefits:

Increased performance and efficiency: Delivers 400 gigabits per second (Gbps) Layer 4-7 throughput, 380 Gbps of hardware-accelerated encrypted TLS throughput, 95 Gbps Elephant Flow throughput, and the latest security strikes in a compact 1RU platform that minimizes rack space, cooling, and power consumption. Compatibility and flexibility: Deploy as a stand-alone appliance or seamlessly integrate with existing deployments of Keysight’s APS-100/400GE series, including APS-M8400, APS-M1010, and APS-ONE-100. With APS-ONE-400’s fanout support for 100/25/10GE, the platform accommodates a range of critical network speeds. Hyperscale performance: When paired with the APS-M8400 appliance or APS-M1010 management controller, the APS-ONE-400 enables hyperscale testbeds that emulate the rigorous demands of data center and service provider environments. The platform can generate up to 16 terabits per second (Tbps) of Layer 4-7 traffic, 20 billion concurrent connections, 15 Tbps of TLS traffic, and 25 million TLS connections per second. Modular, scalable solution: Designed as a “pay-as-you-grow” solution, the APS-ONE-400 lets users support current test needs while retaining the flexibility to scale up capacity as requirements evolve. Ram Periakaruppan, Vice President and General Manager, Keysight's Network Test and Security Solutions, said: “The exponential growth of data transfers and bandwidth demands generated by AI and machine learning workloads is putting unprecedented strain on data center, service provider, and enterprise network infrastructures. Continuously validating that networks can handle these challenges without compromising security requires realistic, hyperscale, traffic emulation capabilities. Keysight's modular APS-ONE-400 compute node delivers new heights in realism, emulating the traffic flows associated with generative AI models and agentic applications at hyperscale, including the huge Elephant Flow datasets common to LLM training use cases and PQC-encrypted traffic flows, all in a compact form factor that conserves critical lab resources.”

Resources

Product Page: APS-100/400 network security test platformData Sheet: APS-100/400 network security test platformAbout Keysight Technologies

At Keysight (NYSE: KEYS), we inspire and empower innovators to bring world-changing technologies to life. As an S&P 500 company, we’re delivering market-leading design, emulation, and test solutions to help engineers develop and deploy faster, with less risk, throughout the entire product lifecycle. We’re a global innovation partner enabling customers in communications, industrial automation, aerospace and defense, automotive, semiconductor, and general electronics markets to accelerate innovation to connect and secure the world. Learn more at Keysight Newsroom and www.keysight.com.

The Keysight APS-ONE-400 4x100GE modular network cybersecurity test platform delivers hyperscale L4-7 traffic, encrypted TLS traffic, security strikes, and Elephant Flows via a 1RU footprint that minimizes rack space usage, power consumption, and cooling demands.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260709611791/en/

Disclosures I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to buy any new positions in the stocks mentioned within the next 72 hours.

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Since the final days of June, the Canadian dollar has been unable to build relevant strength against the U.S. dollar. Now, average USD/CAD movements remain close to 0.2% in the short term, showing a neutral bias that has become evident again in the behavior of both currencies.

For now, CAD has not managed to regain confidence ahead of the employment data release. An additional slowdown in this indicator could keep the Bank of Canada on a neutral policy path, limiting the support from higher rates and making it harder for the Canadian dollar to regain appeal in the short term.

In addition, new updates around the conflict in the Middle East could be key for USD strength. Together, these events could continue to highlight a phase of indecision, or even relevant buying pressure, around USD/CAD over the next few sessions.

What to expect from employment in Canada? Tomorrow’s session is expected to bring the release of Canada’s employment change data. So far, expectations point to a significant decline from the previous reading, with the creation of around 11.2 thousand jobs in June. This figure would come in well below the May reading, which stood near 87.8 thousand jobs created.

Looking at the broader behavior of employment in Canada over the last few months, the data shows a mixed dynamic, with consistent signs of weakness. May was the only month that managed to post a solid figure, but overall, employment data has shown fragility. This trend could be confirmed with tomorrow’s release, especially if the result comes in below expectations, as it would reaffirm a relevant labor market problem in Canada compared to other countries where the slowdown is not as significant.

Source: TradingEconomics

This outlook could be relevant for the Bank of Canada, as weaker employment, or even a reading below expectations, could reduce the need to raise the interest rate, which currently remains around 2.25%. This could lead the central bank to maintain a wait-and-see stance before considering meaningful changes to monetary policy.

In fact, so far, the probability table shows an 88% chance that the interest rate will remain unchanged at the July 15 decision. For the September decision, a probability above 70% has also started to emerge that this dynamic will persist.

Source: Bankofcanadaodds

The employment data release is key. If the report confirms a sharper-than-expected slowdown, expectations for a neutral monetary policy stance from the Bank of Canada could be reinforced over the coming months.

This would limit the appeal of rates in Canada, especially compared to a Federal Reserve that is still approaching scenarios of potential rate hikes. In this context, the differential against the 3.75% rate in the United States could continue to favor USD-denominated investments over those denominated in CAD.

For this reason, a significant decline in employment change could maintain a phase of indecision or even relevant buying pressure in USD/CAD over the next few sessions.

Does the Middle East matter? Another important event to consider is the situation in the Middle East. The latest updates have shown that the United States would be willing to sit down for negotiations, while Trump’s comments continue to point toward maintaining a diplomatic path.

However, an environment of confusion has developed, as during the last 2 sessions a new escalation of the conflict seemed inevitable amid fresh attacks. This has increased doubts over whether a potential peace agreement can take place in the short term.

In this scenario, the behavior of the U.S. dollar is key. The DXY index, which measures the dollar’s strength, showed a relevant increase above the 101-point area in previous sessions as new attacks returned. During the latest session, however, it weakened again amid the relative calm generated by additional comments from the United States.

Source: TradingEconomics

This point is important because, for months, the dollar has been considered a liquidity safe-haven currency during repeated escalations of the conflict. This could become relevant again if no concrete negotiations are seen in the short term.

In that scenario, additional safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar could appear, making it harder for the Canadian dollar to recover ground in the short term. This could also open the door to relevant buying pressure around USD/CAD over the next few sessions.

Technical outlook for USD/CAD

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

Bullish trend continues to dominate: Since the first days of May, USD/CAD has maintained a relevant bullish trend line. This structure has marked an important buying bias, also reinforced by the bullish crossover of the 50-period moving average above the 200-period moving average, signaling a shift from a bearish structure to a more relevant bullish structure. For now, there is no bearish correction strong enough to put this technical pattern at risk, which is why it remains the most important structure to watch and could continue to dominate movements over the next few sessions.
  RSI: The RSI remains above the 50 level, suggesting that buying momentum has remained relevant over the last 14 sessions. If the indicator continues to hold above the neutral area, this could continue to reflect an important buying bias over the next few sessions.
  TRIX: The TRIX line maintains a bullish slope above its neutral zone, reinforcing the presence of buying strength in long-term exponential moving averages and highlighting the importance of a broad buying bias. However, the curve has also started to flatten steadily, which may be signaling exhaustion in buying strength. This could reflect a relevant phase of indecision over the next few sessions or a possible pause in the buying bias seen in previous weeks.
  Key levels:

1.42604 – Relevant resistance: This important high has not been seen consistently since April 2025 and represents the main short-term bullish barrier. Moves toward this zone would reinforce the current buying bias and could open room for an extension of the bullish trend line over the next few sessions.
  1.41982 – Near-term barrier: This is the most relevant neutral and retracement zone from recent trading sessions. Price movements too close to this level could highlight consistent neutrality and even open room for a possible short-term sideways range.
  1.40813 – Crucial support: This bearish barrier coincides with the area marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci level. Price movements that begin to approach this level could end the bullish trend line and open room for a more dominant selling bias over the coming trading weeks.
  Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25

Key Takeaways RLI has raised its regular dividend for 51 straight years and hiked quarterly payout by 12.5% in May 2026. RLI declared a $2.00-per-share special dividend and approved a new $250 million share repurchase program. Strong underwriting, operating cash flow and disciplined capital management aid shareholder returns. RLI Corp. (RLI - Free Report) has a disciplined and shareholder-friendly capital deployment strategy that balances investments in business growth with consistent capital returns. The company generates strong underwriting profits and operating cash flow, enabling it to return excess capital while maintaining a conservatively capitalized balance sheet.

RLI has increased its regular dividend for 51 consecutive years, demonstrating a long-standing commitment to returning cash to shareholders. In May 2026, the board increased the quarterly dividend by 12.5% to 18 cents per share. When capital exceeds business needs, RLI distributes excess cash through special dividends. The company declared a $2.00-per-share special dividend in May 2026, totaling approximately $184 million, continuing its history of periodic special dividend payments.

RLI's board of directors authorized a new share repurchase program to return more value to investors. With the latest authorization, the board approved the issuance of up to $250 million of the company’s outstanding common stock in May 2026.

Management emphasizes maintaining financial flexibility and capital adequacy before distributing excess capital, ensuring the company can support underwriting growth and withstand catastrophe losses. Strong underwriting profitability, recurring operating cash flow, investment income, a conservatively capitalized balance sheet and disciplined risk management provide RLI with the financial strength and flexibility to deploy capital efficiently while creating long-term shareholder value.

RLI's capital allocation strategy is a key investment strength. The combination of regular dividend increases, periodic special dividends, opportunistic share repurchases and continued investment in the business reflects disciplined capital management that has consistently enhanced long-term shareholder value.

What About Its Peers?First American Financial Corporation (FAF - Free Report) follows a balanced capital-return strategy that combines a steadily growing dividend with opportunistic share repurchases. FAF generally uses a combination of regular dividend increases and selective share repurchases to distribute excess capital. FAF has increased its dividend for more than 15 consecutive years, reflecting management's commitment to returning capital through various housing market environments.

American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG - Free Report) has one of the most shareholder-friendly capital allocation policies in the U.S. insurance sector. AFG regularly generates capital that is needed to support underwriting operations. Returning excess capital to shareholders in the form of regular and special cash dividends and through opportunistic share repurchases is an important and effective component of American Financial’s capital management strategy. The combination of growing regular dividends, frequent special dividends, opportunistic buybacks and strong underwriting profitability has enabled the company to deliver substantial cash returns to investors over time.

RLI’s Price PerformanceShares of RLI have lost 14.2% in the past year against the industry.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

RLI’s Expensive ValuationThe stock is overvalued compared with its industry. It is currently trading at a price-to-book ratio of 3.11, above the industry average of 1.49.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Estimate Movement for RLIThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for RLI’s third-quarter 2026 has moved down 1.8% in the past 60 days. The same for the full-year 2026 and 2027 EPS has moved up 1.8% and 2.6%, respectively, in the past 60 days.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Key Takeaways Coherent stock has soared 247% in a year but pulled back 11% over the past month.AI demand drove Datacenter & Communications to 75% of third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues.COHR's backlog extends into 2028, while long-term supply agreements stretch through 2030. Coherent Corp. (COHR - Free Report) has been one of the standout performers in the technology hardware space over the past year. The stock has surged an impressive 247%, significantly outperforming the industry's 8% growth and the Zacks S&P 500 Composite's 24% advance. More recently, however, COHR has pulled back 11% over the past month, suggesting the stock may be entering a healthy correction after its remarkable run.

                                                              Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The recent weakness raises an important question for investors: Is this a buying opportunity, a signal to hold existing positions, or a reason to stay on the sidelines? While the valuation remains elevated, Coherent's strengthening fundamentals indicate that the company's long-term growth story remains intact.

AI Infrastructure Demand Is Reshaping COHR’s BusinessCoherent's transformation has been fueled by booming demand for AI infrastructure. The company's Datacenter & Communications segment has become its primary growth engine, accounting for 75% of third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues while delivering 41% year-over-year growth.

This shift is significant because it changes the company's revenue profile. Historically, hardware manufacturers have been exposed to short product cycles and volatile demand. Today, Coherent is increasingly tied to long-duration AI infrastructure spending, providing investors with greater confidence in future earnings.

Unlike traditional semiconductor hardware cycles, AI-related investments are supported by large-scale cloud deployments and multi-year capital spending plans, making demand considerably more predictable.

Long-Term Orders Improve COHR’s Revenue VisibilityOne of the biggest positives for Coherent is the dramatic improvement in order visibility.

Rather than experiencing the typical cyclical increase in hardware demand, the company is witnessing a step-change in customer commitments. Record backlog levels now extend into calendar 2028, while long-term supply agreements stretch through 2030.

This level of visibility substantially lowers the risk that new manufacturing investments become underutilized during an economic slowdown.

To support this unprecedented demand, Coherent invested approximately $290 million in capital expenditures during the third quarter of fiscal 2026, more than doubling spending from the prior-year period.

Importantly, this aggressive capacity expansion is backed by contractual customer commitments rather than speculative demand forecasts.

Operating Leverage is Beginning to Pay OffThe surge in AI-related demand is translating directly into stronger profitability.

Higher factory utilization and improved supply chain efficiencies contributed to a 163-basis-point expansion in the adjusted operating margin during the third quarter. Meanwhile, adjusted net income climbed nearly 56% year over year, highlighting the operating leverage created by rising production volumes.

As manufacturing assets become increasingly utilized, incremental revenues are flowing through to earnings at a faster pace, improving the overall quality of Coherent's financial performance.

This combination of expanding margins and stronger earnings suggests the company is benefiting not only from higher sales but also from greater operational efficiency.

Strategic Partnerships Strengthen Financial FlexibilityCoherent has also significantly strengthened its balance sheet.

A major catalyst came from NVIDIA's (NVDA - Free Report) $2 billion equity investment, which increased Coherent's cash balance to roughly $3 billion during the third quarter of fiscal 2026 from approximately $1.5 billion in the previous quarter.

Beyond the financial benefits, NVIDIA's investment serves as an important strategic validation of Coherent's technology and its role within the rapidly expanding AI infrastructure ecosystem.

Management has simultaneously accelerated debt reduction. During the quarter, Coherent repaid $162 million of debt, reducing its leverage ratio to 0.5X from 1.7X in the previous quarter.

Lower leverage, higher liquidity and declining interest costs collectively provide the company with considerably greater financial flexibility as it continues investing in future growth.

Premium Valuation Appears Supported by Improving FundamentalsCoherent currently trades at approximately 37.56 times forward earnings, nearly double the industry's 21.49 times forward earnings multiple.

                                                                    Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

At first glance, that premium valuation may appear demanding. However, investors are paying for a business that is becoming fundamentally different from the cyclical hardware manufacturer it once was. Multi-year customer commitments, record backlog, expanding margins, stronger cash generation and a healthier balance sheet are all contributing to a more predictable earnings profile.

While short-term volatility is always possible following such a strong rally, Coherent's growing exposure to AI infrastructure spending and long-term customer agreements provides a solid foundation for sustained growth over the coming years.

Coherent's Top and Bottom Line Expectations Remain RobustCoherent's growth prospects remain compelling, supported by strong demand across AI-driven datacenter infrastructure and improving operating leverage. The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects fiscal 2026 revenues of $7.1 billion, indicating 21.5% year-over-year growth. Momentum is expected to accelerate further in fiscal 2027, with revenues forecast to increase 37.7% from the prior year.

The earnings outlook is equally impressive. The consensus estimate indicates fiscal 2026 EPS of $5.47, suggesting 55% year-over-year growth. Looking ahead, analysts expect EPS to climb another 52.5% in fiscal 2027, indicating confidence that Coherent's expanding AI-related business, improving margins and higher manufacturing utilization will continue to drive profitability.

Such robust top- and bottom-line projections reinforce the investment case that Coherent's transition toward AI infrastructure is creating a stronger, more predictable earnings profile despite the stock's premium valuation.

Peers to Watch: Lumentum and IPG PhotonicsAmong U.S.-listed peers, Lumentum Holdings (LITE - Free Report) and IPG Photonics (IPGP - Free Report) offer useful comparisons for investors evaluating Coherent. Like Coherent, both LITE and IPGP operate in optical components and photonics markets that benefit from increasing demand for high-speed data communications and advanced laser technologies. However, Coherent currently stands apart because of its unusually strong AI infrastructure exposure, record backlog extending into 2028, long-term supply agreements through 2030, and a significantly strengthened balance sheet following NVIDIA's strategic investment. These factors have helped improve earnings visibility and differentiate Coherent's growth profile within the photonics industry.

COHR Remains a Buy for Long-Term AI InvestorsCoherent’s remarkable rally reflects meaningful improvements in its business rather than market enthusiasm alone. The company has strengthened its revenue visibility through long-term customer commitments, expanded profitability as AI-driven demand boosts operating leverage, and reinforced its balance sheet with greater financial flexibility. Although the stock trades at a premium and could experience periodic volatility after its strong advance, its transformation into a critical supplier for AI infrastructure supports a more durable growth outlook. With robust revenue and earnings expectations, improving execution and favorable industry trends, Coherent remains an attractive buy for investors seeking long-term exposure to the expanding AI ecosystem.

COHR currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Shares of Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL | MRVL Price Prediction) are up 7% to $247 and change in midday trading Thursday, riding a broad semiconductor rebound that’s lifted the entire AI chip complex. Marvell stock came into the session bruised after a sharp multi-week pullback, setting up an oversold bounce.

The move stems from broad sector catalysts. Traders are responding to blowout preliminary Q2 results from Samsung, continued strength at SK Hynix, and Fundstrat’s Tom Lee framing the recent selloff as a buying opportunity in AI infrastructure names.

Some of Marvell’s peers are participating in the rally while others are lagging behind. Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) stock is up 3%, but NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) shares are down 1% today.

A Broad Sector Rebound Powers the Move Marvell stock had faded after its June 22, 2026 S&P 500 inclusion, unwinding some of the technical buying that drove a strong run into the event. Insider selling and valuation concerns amplified the July drawdown.

The supportive fundamental backdrop hasn’t changed. Marvell has an expanded NVIDIA partnership via NVLink Fusion, a reported $2 billion strategic investment tie-up, a wave of analyst target hikes, and the recent Teralynx T100 switch launch with 102.4 Tbps of silicon aimed at AI clusters.

Marvell’s AI-Driven Growth Story Marvell’s Q1 FY2027 results reported May 27, 2026 showed revenue of $2.418 billion, up 27.6% year over year (YoY), with data center revenue of $1.833 billion (76% of total). Management guided Q2 FY2027 revenue to $2.7 billion, implying 35% YoY growth.

The company’s valuation is a pressure point, though. Marvell stock trades at a trailing P/E of 85x per Yahoo Finance, the richest of the three names. That reflects both depressed trailing earnings and a stock that has run 191% year to date (YTD).

CEO Matt Murphy told investors that the company sees “exceptional AI-related bookings” and significantly raised its FY2027 and FY2028 outlook. That growth is real, but the average analyst target price of $252.26 sits near MRVL stock’s current quote, which suggests that the implied upside is limited.

Broadcom Trades at a Growth-Justified Premium Broadcom stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 66x, above the sector average but below that of Marvell. AVGO stock is up 15% YTD, well behind Marvell’s move but still ahead of the market.

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Broadcom’s Q2 FY2026 results, reported June 3, 2026, showed revenue of $22.19 billion, up 47.9% YoY, with AI semiconductor revenue of $10.8 billion, up 143% YoY. The company’s Q3 FY2026 guidance calls for AI semiconductor revenue of $16 billion, over 200% YoY growth. That scale gives Broadcom’s premium some cover.

NVIDIA Screens as the Cheapest of the Trio NVIDIA stock trades at a trailing P/E of 31x with a forward P/E of 22x. NVDA stock is up 8% YTD, lagging both peers despite $81.62 billion in Q1 FY2027 revenue (up 85.2% YoY) and Q2 guidance of $91 billion. On growth-adjusted multiples, NVIDIA stock screens as the most reasonably valued of the three AI chip leaders.

The apparent contradiction is that NVIDIA stock carries the largest market cap at $4.77 trillion but also the lowest multiple. Evidently, the earnings scale has finally caught up to the share price.

SOXX Confirms the Sector Move The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) is up 5% today, confirming a sector-wide rally rather than a single-name story. The ETF holds Marvell, Broadcom, and NVIDIA and carries a 0.34% expense ratio.

The concentration risk is worth noting with the SOXX ETF. The fund’s top holdings dominate the returns, so this ETF behaves as an amplified play on the same AI-infrastructure trade lifting its largest components today.

What to Watch Now Investors can watch for whether Marvell stock holds today’s 7% gain into the close, given the stock’s beta of 2.2 and recent volatility. A close at session highs would suggest that the oversold bounce has legs.

Discipline is crucial here, and investors should consider keeping their position sizes modest in high-beta AI names. Marvell’s next fundamental catalyst is the company’s Q2 FY2027 earnings, which will test whether the AI-infrastructure thesis can grow into the multiple.

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Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Zillow (NASDAQ: ZG | ZG Price Prediction) posted $46 million in net income last quarter while Opendoor Technologies (NASDAQ: OPEN) lost $173 million. Zillow runs a digital tollbooth on home search traffic. Opendoor buys houses with cash, holds them, and hopes to resell fast.

Ad Dollars Flow In. Inventory Sits on the Books. Zillow’s $708 million in Q1 revenue grew 18.4% year over year, powered by three engines that never touch a deed. Rentals climbed 42% as multifamily listings scaled to 76,000 properties. Mortgage revenue jumped 56%, with purchase loan originations up 96% to $1.5 billion. CEO Jeremy Wacksman told investors the platform is “embedding AI throughout the real estate experience in ways that make Zillow increasingly indispensable.” Believable, given 220 million monthly unique users keep showing up.

Opendoor’s story hinges on operations. Revenue fell 38% to $720 million as homes sold dropped to 1,921 units. Yet new CEO Kaz Nejatian argues the machine is finally tuned: aged inventory over 120 days collapsed from 51% to 10%, and acquisition contracts topped 5,000, the highest since 2022. Gross margin nudged up to 10.0%. Progress, but the operating cash burn hit negative $246 million.

A Tollbooth Versus a Warehouse Lens Zillow Opendoor Core Bet SaaS agent tools, rentals, mortgage leads Buying and reselling homes for cash Balance Sheet Exposure Minimal; ad marketplace Heavy inventory plus $193M current convertibles Q1 Profitability $182M adjusted EBITDA $49M adjusted net loss Zillow’s 73.3% gross margin lets management repurchase stock aggressively: 13.5 million shares bought for $626 million in the quarter. Opendoor, meanwhile, took a $105 million RSU charge tied to Nejatian’s arrival. Different worlds.

What Decides the Second Half Housing itself remains soft. Existing home sales sit at 4.17 million annualized, and housing starts just fell 15.4% month over month. I will be watching whether Zillow’s Enhanced Markets, now 49% of connections, keep pushing agent monetization higher. For Opendoor, the tell is whether Q2 hits adjusted EBITDA breakeven and whether the 5% to 7% contribution margin range holds when cohorts mature.

Why I Lean Toward Zillow, With Eyes Open Personally, I favor Zillow here. A capital-light platform compounding mid-teens revenue growth with real cash generation is easier to underwrite than a house-flipper still burning cash. The stock is down 54.2% over the past year, which stings, yet the FTC trial and legal headwinds feel priced in at a 14 forward P/E. Opendoor is a genuine turnaround story, and its 795.68% one-year rally shows what happens when a busted stock finds a pulse. But I want more quarters of proof before betting on the warehouse over the tollbooth. If you like variance and believe Nejatian’s cohort math, Opendoor fits. If you prefer durable margins, Zillow is the cleaner read.

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Key Takeaways HII is expanding its UUV presence through its REMUS family of autonomous underwater systems.REMUS vehicles support surveillance, reconnaissance and mine countermeasure missions.REMUS 130 adds flexibility, endurance and custom payload options powered by Odyssey software. Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII - Free Report) continues to strengthen its position in the unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) market through its advanced REMUS family of autonomous underwater systems. The company is expanding its presence in next-generation maritime autonomy by developing highly capable UUVs that support naval, commercial and scientific missions while enhancing underwater surveillance, reconnaissance and mine countermeasure capabilities.

A key example is HII's continued expansion of its REMUS portfolio. The company's REMUS family of UUVs is designed to collect critical underwater data across a wide range of missions. These autonomous systems are known for their durability, long service life and modular architecture, allowing customers to upgrade capabilities as mission requirements evolve. REMUS vehicles can operate independently or alongside crewed platforms, including submarines, helping extend operational reach while reducing risk to personnel.

The latest REMUS 130 further strengthens HII's underwater autonomy capabilities. Built on the proven REMUS 300 technology, the platform offers enhanced operational flexibility, improved endurance and a modular design that allows users to customize payloads for different missions. Powered by HII's Odyssey software suite, the vehicle supports advanced mission planning, autonomous navigation and multi-platform coordination, improving mission effectiveness across complex underwater environments.

Growing geopolitical tensions, rising maritime security concerns and increasing investments in naval modernization are driving demand for autonomous underwater systems worldwide. HII's broad REMUS portfolio, continued investment in autonomous technologies and strong relationships with defense customers position the company well to benefit from this expanding market.

Other UUV Stocks to Keep on the WatchlistOther aerospace and defense companies strengthening their presence in the UUV market are discussed below:

General Dynamics (GD - Free Report) : Through its Mission Systems business, General Dynamics develops advanced autonomous underwater vehicles, including the Knifefish and Bluefin Robotics platforms. The company's UUV portfolio supports mine countermeasure, underwater surveillance and maritime security missions for the U.S. Navy and allied defense customers.

BAE Systems plc (BAESY - Free Report) : BAE Systems continues to expand its underwater autonomy capabilities through its Riptide family of UUVs. These systems combine autonomous underwater platforms with advanced sensors, navigation and electronic payloads, supporting intelligence gathering, surveillance, reconnaissance and other complex maritime operations.

The Zacks Rundown for HIIShares of HII have surged 12.1% in the past year compared with the industry’s 4.5% growth.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The company shares are trading at a discount on a relative basis, with its forward 12-month Price/Sales being 0.85X compared with its industry’s average of 2.62X.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HII’s 2026 earnings has moved south over the past 60 days.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Key Takeaways Boot Barn is using stores, exclusive brands and digital growth to support a balanced expansion model.Fiscal 2026 comps rose 7.2%, with retail stores up 6.2% and e-commerce sales increasing 15.3%.BOOT plans 70 store openings in fiscal 2027, supporting expected sales growth of 14-16%. Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT - Free Report) is leaning on a balanced growth model that combines store expansion, category depth, exclusive brands and digital execution.

For investors, the question is whether those strengths can keep driving sales while near-term margin pressure from occupancy, freight and expansion costs remains part of the story.

Boot Barn Demand Drivers Still Look BroadBoot Barn’s demand base is not tied to a single trend. The company serves western lifestyle and workwear customers across footwear, apparel, hats, accessories and related categories, giving it a broader retail position than a narrow fashion concept.

Fiscal 2026 same-store sales increased 7.2%, with retail stores up 6.2% and e-commerce up 15.3%. Fourth-quarter comps rose 6.1%, helped by higher transaction count and average unit retail, with strength across men’s western boots, ladies’ western boots, apparel and denim.

The durability signal is also meaningful. Many of Boot Barn’s top-selling styles have been in the assortment for more than five years, which lowers fashion-cycle risk and supports a steadier core merchandise base.

For comparison, Tractor Supply Company (TSCO - Free Report) gives investors another rural and work-related retail reference point. Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK - Free Report) is a relevant footwear and lifestyle-brand peer when assessing how branded product identity can shape consumer demand.

BOOT Store Expansion Is Still the Main EngineStores remain central to Boot Barn’s long-term thesis. The company ended fiscal 2026 with 539 stores across 49 states, while management believes the United States can support about 1,200 locations over time.

New-store economics remain attractive. Boot Barn targets roughly $3.2 million in first-year sales on about $1.7 million of total net investment, with a payback period of about 1.8 years.

The store base has already reshaped the company. Boot Barn opened 267 stores over the past five years, effectively doubling its chain, and those locations contributed more than $750 million of fiscal 2026 revenues.

The company opened 80 stores in fiscal 2026 and plans 70 openings in fiscal 2027. That expansion is expected to help support fiscal 2027 sales growth of 14-16%.

Boot Barn Brands Add Margin and IdentityExclusive brands are becoming a larger part of the Boot Barn model. Their penetration rose 220 basis points in fiscal 2026 to 40.8% of sales.

That shift matters because in-house labels do more than broaden product choice. Brands such as Cody James, Shyanne, Hawx and Cleo + Wolf help Boot Barn address specific customer needs while differentiating its assortment from retailers that rely more heavily on third-party labels.

Exclusive brands also support the margin story. Merchandise margin expanded 80 basis points in fiscal 2026, helped by buying scale, supply-chain efficiencies and higher exclusive brand penetration.

Management expects exclusive brand penetration to reach 41.3% in fiscal 2027 and continues to target 50% over time. That provides a longer-term path to product differentiation and profitability support.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

BOOT Digital Strategy Expands ReachBoot Barn’s digital strategy is designed to reinforce the physical fleet, not replace it. Stores still generated about 90% of fiscal 2026 sales, while e-commerce represented about 10%.

Website visits exceeded 164 million in fiscal 2026, up from more than 114 million in fiscal 2025. In the fourth quarter, e-commerce same-store sales increased 14.1%, faster than the retail store comp gain.

Omnichannel services add convenience across channels. Boot Barn supports buy online, pick up in store, curbside pickup, ship-from-store and in-store returns, tying digital traffic back to the store base.

The company is also investing in dedicated brand sites and artificial intelligence tools, including Range Finder and a piloted in-store consumer AI solution. Fiscal 2027 guidance calls for e-commerce same-store sales growth of 11-13%.

Boot Barn Signals Point to Growth With CautionThe bottom line is that Boot Barn still has several credible growth levers, led by stores, resilient categories, exclusive brands and digital reach. The caution is that faster expansion is also adding near-term cost pressure.

Gross margin declined 80 basis points in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026. For the first quarter of fiscal 2027, management expects gross margin of 37.1-37.3%, down from 39.1% a year earlier, reflecting freight and occupancy headwinds.

BOOT currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). That rank suggests a more balanced near-term setup rather than a clear positive or negative earnings-revision signal. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

The stock also has a VGM Score of A, with a Growth Score of A and Momentum Score of A, but a Value Score of C. That mix supports the view that operating momentum remains visible, while investors should stay alert to valuation and margin pressure.

Robinhood’s week-old Earn product has a clear favorite, and it’s not even close. Ethena’s USDe synthetic dollar has emerged as the dominant collateral asset in the lending vault powering Robinhood’s new yield offering, with users overwhelmingly routing their deposits through the protocol.

The Earn product, which launched July 1 alongside Robinhood Chain itself, lets users lend USDG, a stablecoin issued by Robinhood, into a Morpho-powered vault curated by Steakhouse Financial. The estimated return: 7% APY from borrower interest.

How the vault actually works Users deposit USDG into the vault, which then lends those funds to borrowers who post collateral. That collateral comes from three sources: Ethena’s USDe, Spark’s spUSDG, and Maple’s SyrupUSDG.

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As of July 8, Ethena accounts for approximately $100 million of the stablecoin supply on Robinhood Chain. The total supply has surpassed $200 million, meaning Ethena represents roughly 50% of all stablecoins circulating on the chain. That’s a commanding position for a protocol that only listed its ENA governance token on Robinhood back in November 2025.

Insurance coverage for the vault has been arranged through Lloyd’s of London and RELM, covering risks associated with smart contracts and cyber threats.

Why Ethena keeps winning distribution battles USDe works differently from traditional stablecoins like USDC or USDT. Rather than holding dollar reserves in bank accounts, Ethena maintains its peg through a delta-neutral hedging strategy, essentially holding crypto assets while shorting equivalent positions in perpetual futures. The yield comes from funding rates that perpetual futures traders pay.

What this means for investors Robinhood had roughly 24 million funded accounts the last time it reported figures. For ENA token holders, more USDe demand generally means more protocol revenue. The token has been trading on Robinhood since November 2025, giving retail users a direct way to express a thesis on the protocol’s growth.

Ethena’s roughly 50% share of on-chain stablecoin supply suggests users and capital allocators are expressing a strong preference over the two other collateral providers, Spark and Maple. The exact asset allocation percentages among the collateral providers have not been disclosed.

The product is progressively rolling out to U.S. users. Smart contract vulnerabilities, funding rate compression, and regulatory scrutiny of yield products remain live concerns.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

July 9 (Reuters) - India's Apollo Micro Systems (APLL.NS), opens new tab will acquire a 41.33% stake in defence ​equipment maker Premier Explosives (PRMR.NS), opens new tab for 15.5 ‌billion rupees ($162.50 million), the companies said on Thursday.

Here are the details:

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Per India's takeover regulations, ​Apollo Micro Systems will also offer ​to buy up to an additional ⁠26% stake in Premier Explosives from ​public shareholders at 698 rupees per ​share.

Consolidations have risen in India's fast-growing defence manufacturing sector, which has benefited from increased government spending ​and a push for local production.

The ​deal, expected to complete within five months, is ‌subject ⁠to regulatory approvals, including clearance from the Competition Commission of India.

Premier Explosives, which manufactures high-energy materials, rocket motors, countermeasures ​and munitions ​for the ⁠defence and aerospace sectors, will continue to operate under its ​existing brand after the acquisition.

Apollo ​Micro ⁠said the acquisition combines the companies' defence systems and energetic materials capabilities, helping ⁠expand ​their participation in defence ​and space programmes.

($1 = 95.3875 Indian rupees)

Reporting by Surbhi ​Misra in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Casey's General Stores (CASY - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 7.9% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Casey's due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

CASY Q4 Earnings Beat on Inside Sales & Fuel Margin StrengthCasey's reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results, with both the top and bottom lines beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate and increased year over year.

The company posted quarterly earnings of $4.37 per share, beating the consensus mark of $3.36 by 30.1%. Earnings rose 66.2% from $2.63 in the prior-year quarter. Revenues of $4.57 billion surpassed the consensus estimate of $4.40 billion by 4% and advanced 14.5% year over year. Inside same-store sales rose year over year, while fuel margins expanded sharply.

CASY’s Quarterly Performance: Key DetailsCasey’s delivered net income of $162.7 million in the fourth quarter, up 65.5% from $98.3 million in the year-ago period. EBITDA increased 33.2% year over year to $350.3 million, driven by higher inside and fuel gross profit.

The company benefited from strength inside the store and at the pump. Total inside sales rose 7.4% from the prior year to $1.52 billion, while total inside gross profit increased 10.5% to $643.4 million.

Casey’s Inside Sales Show Broad MomentumInside same-store sales increased 5.5% compared with 1.7% growth in the prior-year quarter. On a two-year stack basis, inside same-store sales increased 7.4%.

The upside was led by strong demand for whole pizzas, appetizers and sides in the prepared food and dispensed beverage category. Non-alcoholic beverages supported growth in grocery and general merchandise.

CASY’s Margin Profile StrengthensInside margin expanded to 42.4% from 41.2% in the year-ago quarter. Cost of goods management, improved waste and mix shift were the primary drivers of the 120-basis-point margin expansion.

Prepared food and dispensed beverage margin improved to 59.5% from 57.8%. Grocery and general merchandise margin increased to 35.7% from 34.8%, aided by favorable category mix and cost discipline.

Casey’s Segmental Sales TrendsPrepared food and dispensed beverage sales increased 9.2% year over year to $427.6 million. Same-store sales for the category advanced 6.6%, supported by whole pizzas, appetizers and sides.

Grocery and general merchandise sales rose 6.7% to $1.09 billion. Same-store sales in the category increased 5.1%, with notable strength in non-alcoholic beverages, particularly energy drinks.

CASY’s Fuel Business Delivers Strong GainsFuel gallons sold increased 3.6% year over year to 848.3 million, driven by a large store base and same-store gallon growth. Same-store fuel gallons were up 1.5% compared with 0.1% growth in the prior-year quarter.

Fuel gross profit jumped 29.1% to $397.4 million. Fuel margin improved to 46.9 cents per gallon from 37.6 cents a year earlier. Casey’s also generated $15.2 million in renewable fuel credits in the quarter, up $10.8 million from the prior-year period.

Casey’s Expense Trends and Cash PositionTotal operating expenses rose 10.1% year over year to $730 million. Operating 40 more stores accounted for roughly 2% of the increase, while same-store employee expense contributed about 1.5%, mainly due to higher labor rates.

The company ended the quarter with $1.4 billion in available liquidity, including $523 million in cash and cash equivalents and $900 million in available borrowing capacity. Casey’s repurchased about $63 million of shares during the quarter and its board expanded the repurchase authorization to $1 billion.

CASY’s Fiscal 2026 Finish & 2027 ViewFor fiscal 2026, Casey’s reported diluted earnings of $19.16 per share, up 30.9% year over year. Net income increased 30.7% to $714.4 million, while EBITDA rose 23.6% to nearly $1.5 billion.

For fiscal 2027, management expects inside same-store sales to increase 2-5%, with an inside margin above 42%. Same-store fuel gallons sold are expected to range between a 1% decline and a 1% increase. Total operating expenses are projected to rise 5-7%, while EBITDA is expected to grow 8-10%.

Casey’s Store Growth & Shareholder ReturnsCasey’s operated 2,944 stores as of Apr. 30, 2026. During fiscal 2026, the company added 40 new stores through construction, acquired 40 stores and opened one prior acquisition, while closing 41 stores.

The company expects to open at least 120 stores in fiscal 2027 through a mix of mergers and acquisitions and new store construction. Casey’s also raised its quarterly dividend by 14% to 65 cents per share, marking the 27th consecutive annual dividend increase.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in fresh estimates.

VGM ScoresAt this time, Casey's has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. Following the exact same course, the stock has a score of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

OutlookEstimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Casey's has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, the man who built the world’s largest crypto exchange and then went to prison for its compliance failures, has some thoughts about Hyperliquid. Speaking on the Galaxy Brains podcast on June 10, CZ called Hyperliquid’s high-performance Layer-1 blockchain and no-KYC perpetual futures trading model “awesome.” In the same breath, he made it clear he would never touch that approach himself. “I would never do what they do,” he said, pointing to the very personal consequences he faced when Binance’s own compliance infrastructure fell short.

Binance was hit with a $4.3 billion fine in 2023 for KYC and anti-money laundering violations. CZ personally served a four-month prison sentence as part of the settlement. He acknowledged that Binance, as a centralized exchange with identifiable leadership and corporate structure, simply cannot operate the way Hyperliquid does. Hyperliquid, by contrast, positions itself as a decentralized protocol, which at least theoretically puts it in a different regulatory category.

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Inside Hyperliquid’s model Hyperliquid launched its Layer-1 blockchain in 2023 and has since grown into one of the most active decentralized trading venues in crypto. Users connect their wallets and start trading perpetual futures instantly. No identity verification, no waiting period, no compliance friction. By 2025, it was handling hundreds of billions monthly in transaction volume.

Hyperliquid’s decentralization claims deserve some scrutiny. The network runs on just 24 validators. The Hyper Foundation controls approximately 60% of the governance stake. CZ himself pointed to this dynamic, noting that Hyperliquid is controlled by a small team. If regulators ever decide to come after the platform, that concentrated control structure could make it easier to identify responsible parties than a truly distributed protocol would.

HYPE token rides the wave The HYPE token, native to the Hyperliquid ecosystem, is trading near its all-time high around $76 to $77, with a market capitalization exceeding $15 billion. CZ’s remarks appear to have contributed to renewed enthusiasm around the token. The price surge came without any immediate regulatory repercussions.

What this means for investors The investment case for HYPE comes down to a single bet: can a no-KYC trading platform continue operating at scale without facing the kind of enforcement action that nearly destroyed Binance? Hyperliquid’s concentrated governance structure, with 24 validators and a foundation controlling roughly 60% of stake, means there are identifiable entities that regulators could target. A protocol where a single foundation holds supermajority governance power is, functionally, more like a company than a truly decentralized network, meaning decision-making could change rapidly and tokenomics could be altered based on the preferences of a small group.

Investors should watch for two signals above all else. First, any regulatory action or formal investigation targeting Hyperliquid or similar no-KYC platforms, particularly from US authorities, would immediately reprice the risk. Second, any moves by the Hyper Foundation to distribute governance stake more broadly would strengthen the decentralization argument and potentially reduce regulatory exposure.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

Phantom Technologies and the Hyperliquid Policy Center filed a joint comment with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission asking the agency to update its rules for onchain market infrastructure.

The comment responds to the CFTC’s request for information on regulations that may limit fintech firms from partnering with financial infrastructure and intermediaries regulated by the Commission.

Phantom and HPC said current rules generally assume a custodial market structure where intermediaries handle customer orders and funds, while onchain markets can allow users to trade directly and retain control of their assets.

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The groups asked the CFTC to confirm that developing or contributing to onchain protocol software does not, by itself, trigger registration with the Commission. They said registration should apply to firms that actually handle customer orders or funds, or enter into transactions with customers, rather than to software protocols or developers standing alone.

Phantom and HPC also asked the CFTC to give registered exchanges, clearing organizations and intermediaries a path to use onchain infrastructure for regulated functions.

The comment said designated contract markets should be able to use onchain protocols for matching and execution, while derivatives clearing organizations should be able to use them for margining, settlement, clearing and default management.

The filing also calls on the CFTC to turn its recent Phantom no action letter into a formal rule. That letter granted relief to Phantom as a non custodial wallet provider whose role is limited to providing technical access to regulated markets. Phantom and HPC said a rulemaking would give similar wallet and front end providers broader certainty.

Phantom said it does not hold user funds, control private keys, execute trades between users or intermediate transactions. HPC described itself as an advocacy group focused on creating a regulated path for Americans to access onchain markets, including those available on Hyperliquid.

Phantom integrates Hyperliquid through its interface, though the functionality is not available to US users. The groups said they are working together to support regulations that would allow Americans to access onchain derivatives markets under CFTC oversight.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

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Our AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) 24/7 Wall St. price target is $91.65 over the next 12 months, implying 13.66% upside from the current price of $80.64. Our recommendation is buy with moderate confidence (0.5).

The 10-bagger question is fair given ASTS has already returned 542.04% over five years, but our base case does not see a near-term 10x. The path there requires flawless satellite deployment and MNO contract conversion over a multi-year window.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary Metric Value Current Price $80.64 24/7 Wall St. Price Target $91.65 Upside 13.66% Recommendation BUY Confidence Level 50% A Volatile Path Into July, With Real Catalysts Underneath ASTS is down 7.06% over the past week and 13.85% over the past month, yet still up 76.84% over one year and 11.03% year to date. The stock sits 39% from its 52-week high of $133.86, well off the $36.08 low.

Q1 2026 revenue of $14.73 million missed the $36.58 million consensus, and EPS of -$0.66 came in well below the -$0.20 estimate, dragged by an $88.65 million induced conversion expense.

Underneath the noise, BlueBirds 8-10 are now operational in orbit per late-June updates, a Vodafone Spain direct-to-device agreement targets commercial availability by 2027, and Reddit chatter has cycled from a widely-shared “Down $240k in less than a month” loss post to renewed enthusiasm around a Rakuten contract. Cash and equivalents stood at $3.03 billion.

The Case for $108 and Beyond Bulls have a clean story. AST SpaceMobile has nearly 60 MNO partners covering 3 billion+ subscribers, over $1.20 billion in contracted partner commitments, and definitive agreements with Verizon and stc Group. Management is targeting 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by year-end 2026 and FY2026 revenue of $150 million to $200 million.

CEO Abel Avellan called the setup a “fortress balance sheet” paired with the “industry’s largest global commercial ecosystem.” Our model’s bull case one-year price is $108.33, a 34.34% return, and the five-year bull case reaches $163.27.

Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and AST SpaceMobile didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.

The Risks Worth Watching The bear case starts with dilution and losses. Q1 2026’s $191.01 million net loss included $55.35 million in stock-based comp, and insiders have been active sellers. The CFO sold 45,809 shares at roughly $93.81, while the President sold 25,904 shares at $126.64. CEO Avellan entered a variable prepaid forward on 2.5 million shares for roughly $146.7 million, with a floor of $59.58.

Analyst sentiment is mixed with 2 buys, 7 holds, and 2 strong sells. A bear-case one-year price of $69.05 is realistic if launches slip. Bulls would counter that heavy capex and non-cash conversion charges reflect a company scaling a global constellation.

Hold With a Buyer’s Bias Our 24/7 Wall St. price target of $91.65, a buy rating, and moderate 50% confidence reflect a stock priced for execution. The key factor tipping the scale is the growing revenue backlog against a still pre-commercial income statement.

The bull thesis strengthens if BlueBirds 11-13 launch cleanly and FY2026 revenue tracks toward the upper end of guidance. The setup weakens if satellite cadence slips or if further convertible issuance compounds dilution before commercial ramp.

Looking ahead, here is where our model projects ASTS could trade over the next 12 months, assuming current growth trajectories and satellite deployment milestones hold.

Year 24/7 Wall St. Price Target 2026 $91.65 This projection assumes ASTS executes its constellation buildout and converts MOU partners into recurring service revenue. Meaningful upside or downside could come from FCC decisions on spectrum, MNO churn, or a faster than expected European commercial launch.

Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and AST SpaceMobile didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

The platform whose homepage promises no presales and no team allocations is about to release roughly $130 million of presale and team tokens into a market that trades half that much in a day. The July 12 PUMP unlock, landing one year to the day after its record-breaking ICO, is the sharpest test yet of whether the fair-launch economy’s own house token can survive the mechanics it imposes on everyone else.

Summary

Pump.fun’s July 12 unlock releases 82.5 billion PUMP, worth roughly $130 million, into a thin daily trading market. The unlock tests the contradiction between Pump.fun’s fair-launch branding and its own allocated ICO and insider vesting schedule. PUMP’s buybacks and burns have been unusually aggressive, but they have not stopped the token’s steep drawdown. The key question is whether insiders and investors hold, hedge, or sell newly liquid tokens after the cliff. Saturday’s outcome will set a precedent for revenue-backed tokens facing large vesting overhangs. There is a sentence on Pump.fun’s homepage that reads like a manifesto: coins are instantly tradable on a transparent bonding curve, no liquidity to seed, no presales, no team allocations. It is the creed of the fair-launch economy the platform built, the promise that made it the center of Solana’s on-chain trading culture and, by Grayscale’s recent accounting, one of the three applications driving the entire network’s growth, with roughly 1.3 million monthly active users and daily revenue around $690,000.

On Saturday, July 12, the platform’s own token will supply the exception. An 82.5 billion PUMP cliff unlock, worth roughly $130 million depending on the day’s price, vests to precisely the categories the homepage disavows: about 50 billion tokens to the team and 32.5 billion to existing investors, together equal to 29.23% of the circulating supply. Recent daily trading volume in PUMP has run between $55 million and $70 million, meaning the unlock is roughly twice the size of everything the market currently trades in a day. And the calendar adds its own cruelty: the cliff expires one year to the day after the July 12, 2025 initial coin offering in which Pump.fun sold 150 billion tokens at $0.004, raising $600 million in twelve minutes, part of $1.32 billion in total token-sale proceeds. The token trades near $0.0015 today, down more than 60% from that ICO price and over 80% from its 2025 peak.

This piece treats the unlock as what it is: the clearest stress test yet staged of the fair-launch era’s central contradiction, a platform that industrialized instant, allocation-free token launches while financing itself through the largest allocated sale in memecoin history. It walks through the mechanics of Saturday’s cliff and why cliff unlocks are uniquely violent, the platform’s extraordinary and so far losing battle to defend its token with burned revenue, the bull and bear cases for absorption, the Ansem airdrop debate over what the platform owes its users, and what the outcome will signal for every token with a vesting schedule, which is to say nearly all of them.

The mechanics: what actually happens Saturday Token unlocks are scheduled supply events, and this one is a cliff, the harshest shape a vesting schedule can take. Rather than dripping tokens to insiders over months, a cliff holds everything back and releases a block at once; Saturday’s block is 82.5 billion tokens against a circulating base of roughly 400 billion, which is why the same event can be described as 29% of circulating supply and just under 10% of the eventual trillion-token total. Tokenomist’s vesting data attributes the tranche to existing investors and the team, with the investor slice worth about $48 million and the team slice about $74 million at recent prices.

What an unlock does to price is not mechanical dilution, a point unlock analysis gets wrong in both directions. The tokens exist already; what changes is that they become sellable, converting locked paper wealth into potential order flow. Whether they become actual order flow depends on the recipients, and that is unknowable in advance: investors from a $0.004 ICO remain underwater at $0.0015 and may prefer to wait; a team sitting on nine figures of newly liquid tokens may sell nothing, or hedge quietly through derivatives, or drip supply out over months. The market’s problem is that it must price the possibility before observing the behavior, which is why unlocks front-run themselves: the fear arrives on schedule even when the selling does not, the same anticipatory arithmetic that governs every large scheduled release in crypto, from Pi’s monthly drip to the industry-wide $776 million calendar this very week, where PUMP’s cliff is the largest single event.

The order-book context is what makes this cliff unusually sharp. Against $55-70 million of daily volume, $130 million of new sellable supply cannot exit through the market quickly without moving it violently; every large sale in a thin book pays an execution cost that compounds as depth runs out, which disciplines rational sellers into patience but also means any impatient seller inflicts disproportionate damage. Derivatives complete the picture: funding on PUMP perps has been mildly positive into the event, and the presence of liquid perp markets means insiders did not need to wait for Saturday to monetize; anyone sophisticated could have shorted against their locked position months ago, converting the cliff from a decision point into a settlement date. If a meaningful share of the tranche is already hedged, Saturday’s visible selling will understate what was economically sold long ago.

The business behind the token Judging the unlock requires separating two things the market constantly conflates: Pump.fun the business and PUMP the token, because the first is among crypto’s genuine success stories and the second has been among its disappointments, and the gap between them is where Saturday’s outcome will be decided.

The business case is not seriously contested. Pump.fun industrialized token creation, launching well over a million coins through a bonding-curve model that requires no code, no seeded liquidity, and no permission, then graduated the survivors to its own PumpSwap venue after cutting external exchanges out of the pipeline in 2025. Grayscale’s recent Solana research named it one of three applications powering the network’s on-chain economy, crediting roughly 1.3 million monthly active users and daily revenue near $690,000; the platform’s own recent prints run around $900,000 in daily fees. Cumulatively, the machine has generated revenue in the high hundreds of millions, a figure almost no crypto-native application outside the major exchanges and Hyperliquid can match. At one point this spring its revenue run rate surpassed Hyperliquid’s, a comparison that flattered both.

The token’s case has been harder from birth, because the token was never required for anything. PUMP launched as an explicitly optional asset, promotions, potential fee rebates, brand alignment, layered onto a protocol that works identically without it, and the market has priced that optionality with brutal literalism: a $600 million market capitalization against a business whose revenue would justify multiples of that under any conventional framework, because no mechanism compels the revenue and the token to meet. The buyback program is the attempted bridge, and the fee overhaul is the attempted engine upgrade, and the unlock is 82.5 billion new claims on a bridge still under construction. That is the actual bet Saturday prices: not whether Pump.fun is a good business, which is settled, but whether PUMP has become the instrument through which the business’s value travels, which is not.

The vesting structure sharpens the question. Of the trillion-token total supply, roughly 400 billion circulates today; behind Saturday’s 82.5 billion sit a further 330 billion locked tokens plus a 240 billion tranche whose disposition is listed simply as to-be-determined, which means the market must price not one cliff but a mountain range, with this weekend’s event as the first serious peak. Every argument about absorption therefore doubles as an argument about precedent: a market that gags on tranche one reprices every tranche behind it, and a market that swallows it cleanly compresses the discount on the whole schedule at once.

The buyback war: $600 million of defense, and a losing scoreboard What makes PUMP the perfect specimen for this test is that no token in crypto has been defended harder. Pump.fun is that rarity, a memecoin-economy business with enormous real revenue, and it has spent that revenue on its token with an aggression that makes traditional buyback programs look timid.The record: as of early January, the platform had spent $233 million buying back 62.2 billion PUMP. In April it went further, executing a $370 million burn that destroyed roughly 36% of the then-circulating supply in a single stroke, and committing half of all platform revenue to automated buybacks and burns for a year. Co-founder Alon Cohen framed the philosophy plainly: every dollar not burned is a dollar being put to work toward the same outcome. Measured as capital returned relative to market capitalization, this is among the most intense buyback regimes any asset has run, crypto or otherwise, the same revenue-recycling architecture that powered Hyperliquid’s token to its structural rally, applied at comparable intensity.

The scoreboard, though, reads differently. HYPE rode its buyback engine toward all-time highs; PUMP burned a third of its supply and remains more than 80% below its peak, with an earlier buyback phase visibly failing against sustained whale selling in late 2025. The divergence is the most instructive data point in the entire buyback debate, because it isolates the variable: Hyperliquid’s buybacks recycle fees from a business whose volumes grew relentlessly, while Pump.fun’s recycle fees from a business whose activity peaked with the memecoin mania and now runs at a fraction of it, roughly $775,000 of daily revenue against days that once cleared multiples of that. Buybacks amplify a trajectory; they do not reverse one. A platform buying its token with shrinking revenue is bailing with a bucket whose size is set by the leak.

That is the machine Saturday’s supply lands on. The bull case for absorption leans on it: half of revenue, roughly $400,000 a day at current run rates, is a standing bid of about $12 million a month, and the April burn proved the treasury will act discretionarily and at scale when it chooses. The bear case does the division: at current revenue, the automated program would need most of a year to absorb the unlock alone, before touching the further 330 billion tokens still locked behind it, and the demand-side evidence, an 80%-plus drawdown through the most aggressive supply destruction in the sector, suggests the bid that matters has been structurally absent since the ICO cohort was formed.

One comparison calibrates the buyback machine’s scale honestly. Publicly listed companies are considered aggressive when they return 5-10% of market capitalization to shareholders annually; Pump.fun’s April burn alone destroyed value equal to roughly 60% of the token’s current market capitalization, and the standing program adds double-digit annualized percentages on top. No equity on earth defends itself at that intensity, and the fact that the defense has coincided with an 80% drawdown is the strongest single piece of evidence in the bear case, not because the buybacks failed at their mechanical job, supply genuinely shrank, but because they revealed how large the other side of the ledger was: the ICO cohort’s exit demand, the airdrop-less community’s indifference, and a broader market repricing the entire launchpad category. Buybacks are a transfer to whoever is selling, and for a year, the sellers have accepted the transfer and kept selling.

Fair launch for thee: the contradiction at the center

The unlock’s symbolism deserves direct treatment, because it is not incidental to the price question; it is entangled with it.Pump.fun’s cultural product was always fairness-as-spectacle: anyone can launch, everyone enters on the same curve, insiders do not exist because there is nothing to be inside of. That proposition trained millions of traders and generated over a million token launches, and it made the platform’s own financing choice, a 33% ICO allocation plus team, investor, community, and ecosystem tranches on vesting schedules, read as a quiet exemption from the house rules. The July 2025 sale was legal, disclosed, and oversubscribed in minutes; it was also, structurally, everything the homepage says does not happen here. Saturday is the day the exemption becomes supply.

The community’s response has crystallized around a demand articulated most loudly by the trader Ansem: that the platform owes its users an airdrop, on the order of $250-300 million, before or alongside the insider unlock, both as restitution to the trenches that generated its revenue and as a demand-side event large enough to meet the supply-side one. The platform has so far chosen destruction over distribution, in Cohen’s framing, burning value for all holders rather than gifting it to some, and critics answer that burns reward the ICO cohort and insiders pro rata while airdrops would reward usage, and that a platform whose moat is community loyalty is choosing the shareholder-style tool precisely when the community-style one is needed. Ansem’s version is nakedly practical: a stimulus to the trenches, timed to a Solana resurgence, would flip sentiment at breakneck speed. Underneath the tactical debate sits the structural one, the same question every fee-generating protocol now faces about who protocol revenue actually belongs to, and Pump.fun’s answer on Saturday, burn, distribute, or hold, will be read as precedent across the launchpad economy.

There is also a fee-system subplot with real stakes: the platform is overhauling its creator economics for 2026, replacing the Dynamic Fees V1 model with market-driven pricing and Creator Fee Sharing that lets a coin’s fees flow to up to ten wallets, with transferable ownership and revocable update authority. It is a genuine product answer to the platform’s deepest criticism, that it monetized an economy in which almost everyone else lost money, and its adoption curve will decide whether the revenue feeding the buyback machine grows again or keeps shrinking. The unlock and the fee overhaul are the same story on two timescales: whether Pump.fun can convert extraction into an economy durable enough to value its token.

The recipients’ own incentive map deserves one more pass, because it is less one-sided than the fear suggests. The team’s 50 billion tokens belong to operators of a business that still prints near a million dollars a day, whose personal wealth is overwhelmingly in the platform’s future, not this tranche, and whose every sale will be watched on-chain by the most forensic community in crypto; dumping into their own unlock would be economically minor for them and reputationally expensive. The investors’ 32.5 billion is the truly unpredictable slice, funds with their own limited partners, their own marks, and, at prices 60% below the ICO, their own awkward conversations. The likeliest split, insiders slow, funds mixed, is precisely the ambiguity the market cannot price in advance and will read obsessively in wallet flows from Saturday onward.

How unlocks actually trade: the front-running problem The empirical literature on token unlocks, and by 2026 there is one, converges on a finding that reframes Saturday: unlock damage is mostly done in advance. Studies of large vesting events across hundreds of tokens find underperformance concentrating in the weeks before the date, as informed holders pre-position, market makers widen, and derivative shorts accumulate against the locked supply, with the event itself frequently marking a local low rather than starting a decline. The mechanism is simple: the date is public, the size is public, and markets do not wait for scheduled news. PUMP’s chart into this week is consistent with the pattern, chopping near all-time-low territory while the broader Solana complex rallied, and its perp funding staying mildly positive suggests the short side is already crowded, which is the configuration in which unlock days produce squeezes instead of collapses, the sell-the-rumor crowd covering into the fact.

The counter-pattern also exists, and honesty requires naming it: cliffs to insiders who genuinely need liquidity, teams meeting obligations, funds returning capital to their own investors, produce sustained post-unlock distribution that no amount of pre-positioning absorbs, visible as weeks of steady exchange inflows from vesting wallets. The 2025-26 unlock calendar is littered with both outcomes, and the differentiating variable, studied across events, is less the unlock’s size than the recipients’ situation: underwater venture positions in a dead market sell relentlessly; profitable insiders at a platform with ongoing revenue tend to drip or hold. PUMP’s recipients occupy an unusual cell in that matrix, underwater relative to the ICO on paper, attached to a business still printing near a million dollars a day, and publicly lobbied by their own community to convert the moment into a distribution event instead. There is no clean precedent for that combination, which is part of what makes Saturday informative.

One more structural note: the unlock lands into a week in which the entire market is digesting more than $776 million of scheduled releases across Aptos, RedStone, and others, the routine weekly weather of an industry whose 2021-24 financing choices are now permanent supply infrastructure. PUMP is the week’s largest single event and its most symbolically loaded, but it is not an anomaly; it is the fair-launch platform taking its turn in the same vesting queue as everyone it was supposed to be different from.

What Saturday will actually reveal Strip away the drama and the unlock resolves into observable outcomes with clean interpretations.The constructive scenario: elevated volume without a lasting price break, little visible flow from vesting wallets to exchanges, the automated buyback continuing through the event, and price reclaiming its pre-unlock level within days. That outcome would say the cliff was pre-hedged, pre-priced, or met by real demand, and it would be the strongest evidence yet that PUMP’s holder base has rotated from ICO exit-seekers to buyers of the fee stream. The destructive scenario: heavy volume with price deterioration that holds, exchange-bound transfers from recipient wallets, and funding flipping decisively negative, which would say the insiders wanted out, the book could not carry them, and the further 330 billion locked tokens behind this tranche should be priced as a standing overhang rather than a formality. And there is a third, likeliest scenario, the muddled one: a spike, a partial recovery, ambiguous wallet flows, and both camps declaring vindication, in which case the tell shifts to the following weeks, whether the buyback’s pace changes, whether the team communicates a lockup extension or distribution plan, and whether revenue, the ultimate arbiter, turns.

For the wider market, the reading is bigger than one token. PUMP is the house token of the venue that created more tokens than any mechanism in history, and its unlock is the fair-launch economy grading its own homework: whether a platform built on the premise that allocations are the original sin can carry an allocated token through its own cliff. A clean absorption validates the buyback-and-burn defense every revenue protocol is now copying. A failure hands the sector a precedent it will not enjoy, that even nine figures of burned revenue cannot outbid a vesting schedule, and sharpens the question hanging over the entire launchpad model in a market where scheduled supply meets scarce demand everywhere at once. Either way, July 12 stops being an anniversary and becomes a data point, and unusually for crypto, everyone agreed in advance what it would measure.

The wider Solana context adds a final layer of stakes. The unlock arrives just as the network’s fortunes have turned visibly upward, ecosystem activity leading the majors, tokenized-stock volumes and new consumer apps drawing institutional commentary, Grayscale spotlighting the chain’s application economy with Pump.fun as a named pillar. A clean absorption would let PUMP participate in a Solana narrative that is, for the first time in months, running without it; a failed one would hand the chain’s critics their counterexample, the flagship application economy unable to support its own flagship token. Platform and network are entangled in both directions, since Pump.fun’s fee machine is itself a meaningful share of Solana’s on-chain activity, and the trenches that Ansem wants airdropped are the same user base every Solana consumer app is competing to retain.

There is also a governance-shaped question waiting past Saturday that deserves a closing note: what a platform of this profitability eventually does with control. Pump.fun has so far kept every meaningful decision, fees, burns, the overhaul, distribution policy, in the founding team’s hands, with PUMP conferring no governance whatsoever, and that concentration is defensible in a young company and increasingly conspicuous in a cash-machine. Every path forward, a fee-sharing token model, a governance handover, continued benevolent centralization, has a live example elsewhere in crypto, and each reprices the token differently. The unlock will settle what the insiders’ tokens are worth this quarter; what the token is actually for remains the platform’s largest open design question, and the community pressure crystallizing around the airdrop demand suggests the answer will not stay deferred forever.

Saturday, then, carries more freight than one token’s chart: a referendum on buyback defenses, a test of the vesting economy’s worst-case shape, a Solana bellwether, and the fair-launch movement grading its own exception. Few scheduled events in this market cycle have been assigned so many meanings in advance, which is itself the final irony for a platform built on tokens that launch with no schedule at all.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset markets are volatile and you can lose your entire investment. Figures are current as of July 9, 2026, and may change. Always do your own research.

Michael Saylor’s company Strategy has launched an interactive credit model, enabling investors to assess the company’s debt resilience in real time. The announcement landed just two days after Strategy confirmed it had sold 3,588 BTC for $216 million to bolster dollar liquidity and cover preferred share payments. Formerly known as MicroStrategy, the company is widely recognized for holding significant amounts of Bitcoin on its balance sheet as part of its enterprise software and treasury operations.

Credit model introduced after Wall Street scrutinyThe new simulator comes as a direct response to renewed risk debates on Wall Street about Strategy’s business model. It is designed to provide analysts with tangible data on how long the company can sustain its debt obligations even if there’s no significant uptrend in Bitcoin’s value.

Strategy emphasizes that converting reserves to cash is not a desperate move but rather part of a broader capital structure it describes as the digital credit capital framework.

The model released by Strategy allows investors to see exactly under what circumstances the company can meet its dividend and coupon commitments, even if Bitcoin growth comes to a standstill.

Cash buffer for 30 years takes the spotlightThe underlying data in the simulator reveals the limits of Strategy’s current capital structure. Even in a scenario where Bitcoin’s value stagnates for decades, the company’s $52.87 billion in crypto reserves and $2.55 billion in USD reserves would allow all dividend payments to be honored for a full 30 years without interruption.

One particularly notable metric is the annual breakeven return. According to the BTC Breakeven ARR, Bitcoin does not have to stage a dramatic rally for Strategy to meet all its coupon and dividend payments without tapping new capital—an average annual increase of just 3.33% would keep the commitments solvent.

IndicatorDataBTC sold3,588 BTCSales proceeds$216 millionCrypto reserves$52.87 billionUSD reserves$2.55 billionPayment buffer30 yearsAnnual breakeven growth3.33%Debt commitments and new financial toolsStrategy is currently managing $6.714 billion in convertible bond debt and an additional $15.464 billion tied to preferred shares. These obligations bring its total debt load to $22.178 billion, while the company’s BTC Rating—a measure of assets to liabilities—stands at 2.7 times.

Michael Saylor’s long-standing approach centered on relentless Bitcoin accumulation. However, the arrival of the STRC debt instrument has altered this dynamic. As of July, the volume-weighted average market price of STRC shares fell below their par value of $100, prompting the company to increase the dividend rate to 12.00% in order to defend market prices.

The company acknowledged that higher dividend rates require consistent fiat cash inflow, so it has utilized up to $1.25 billion worth of BTC-to-cash conversion, as approved by its board of directors.

This shift signals a move away from passive holding towards a more flexible asset management strategy. Strategy’s new interactive model aims to limit the influence of traditional credit agencies and provide investors with a transparent, data-driven view of debt sustainability—even in a non-rallying crypto market environment.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.

Updated July 9, 2026. The seven US spot XRP ETFs now hold roughly $1 billion in assets and about 970 million XRP after an eighth straight week of net inflows — even as the XRP token price has barely moved. Here is the latest on flows, AUM, and which funds are leading.

Key facts

Seven US spot XRP ETFs are trading; combined AUM sits near $1 billion (~$988M) with roughly 970.9 million XRP locked as of July 8, 2026. Cumulative net inflows have held near $1.4 billion since the November 2025 launch. The funds logged their eighth consecutive week of net inflows, including +$6.55 million on July 2 (after a small -$1.86M outflow on July 1). Leaders: Bitwise XRP ETF (1XRP) ~$245.3M AUM; Canary XRP ETF (2XRPC) ~$225.9M; Franklin XRP ETF (3XRPZ) ~$167.9M. Seven spot XRP ETFs now hold about $1 billion The US spot XRP ETF complex has grown to seven funds since the first products launched in November 2025, and their combined assets under management now sit near the $1 billion mark — about $988 million as of July 8, 2026, according to fund-flow trackers. Together the funds have pulled roughly 970.9 million XRP off the open market and into regulated custody, a figure that has kept climbing even through XRP’s price weakness.

That growth answers a question a lot of traders are still searching: yes, spot XRP ETFs are live and trading in the US, and the line-up has expanded from the original five funds to seven, with additional issuers filed. The wrappers give institutions a compliant way to hold XRP without managing keys or custody themselves — the same structural shift that reshaped Bitcoin and Ether demand a cycle earlier.

Eight straight weeks of net inflows The headline for flows is consistency. US spot XRP ETFs have now recorded their eighth consecutive week of net inflows, with a +$6.55 million day on July 2 following a minor -$1.86 million outflow on July 1. Cumulatively, the funds have absorbed close to $1.4 billion since launch, peaking above $1.5 billion earlier in the spring before settling into a steadier accumulation pace.

The pattern matters because it is spot demand, not leverage: an ETF creation removes real XRP from circulation into a custodial wrapper, so a sustained inflow streak shrinks the effective float regardless of short-term price action.

The divergence: institutions keep buying while the price stalls The most striking part of the story is the gap between flows and price. XRP ETFs have logged eight straight weeks of inflows and nearly a billion dollars in assets, yet the XRP token has stayed weak, drifting rather than rallying on the institutional bid. Analysts frame it as a coiled-spring setup — accumulation building under a flat price — but it is equally a caution: inflows alone have not been enough to move spot while the broader crypto market trades cautiously into the Federal Reserve’s July 28–29 meeting.

For a fuller view of the bull and bear scenarios behind the token itself, see our XRP price prediction.

Which XRP ETF is the biggest? Fund Ticker Approx. AUM Bitwise XRP ETF 1XRP ~$245.3M Canary XRP ETF 2XRPC ~$225.9M Franklin XRP ETF 3XRPZ ~$167.9M AUM figures as of early July 2026; the remaining funds make up the balance of the ~$1B complex. Source: XRP ETF flow trackers.

What to watch next Three things decide whether the flows finally translate into price. First, whether the inflow streak extends into a ninth and tenth week — the longer institutions accumulate through weakness, the more constrained the float becomes. Second, the July 28–29 FOMC meeting, the nearest macro catalyst for all of crypto. Third, seasonality: July has historically been XRP’s strongest month, with an average return near +10%, so a break in the current stall would fit the calendar. Watch the daily flow prints and the custody-token count — those are the leading indicators of demand between now and the next catalyst.

FAQ Are there spot XRP ETFs trading in the US in 2026?
Yes. Seven US spot XRP ETFs are live, up from the original five, holding roughly $1 billion in combined assets as of July 2026.

How much have XRP ETFs pulled in?
Cumulative net inflows are near $1.4 billion since the November 2025 launch, with an eighth consecutive week of net inflows through early July 2026.

How much XRP is locked in ETF custody?
About 970.9 million XRP across the seven funds as of July 8, 2026 — a figure that has kept rising even as the token price stayed weak.

Which XRP ETF is the largest?
The Bitwise XRP ETF (1XRP) leads with roughly $245 million in AUM, followed by Canary (2XRPC) and Franklin (3XRPZ).

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. ETF AUM and flow figures are third-party estimates and change daily. Cryptocurrency investments carry risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always do your own research and consult a licensed adviser. Sources: XRP ETF flow trackers, U.Today, TradingNews (July 2026).

AI Agents Enter the Security LabThe @ethereumfndn security team has been running coordinated AI agents directly against Ethereum's core protocol code, and the experiment has produced tangible results. Among the confirmed findings was a flaw at the peer-to-peer (P2P) network layer, which has since been patched and publicly disclosed as a CVE. The Ethereum Foundation published a detailed account of the exercise on its blog on July 9, 2026.

The effort is part of a broader push to harden Ethereum's Layer 1 infrastructure ahead of a busy period of protocol upgrades. The Foundation has also been funding AI-powered protocol security research through its grants program, which aims to move tooling beyond basic static analysis into protocol specification auditing and active vulnerability detection.

The Signal-to-Noise ProblemThe more instructive finding, however, was not the bugs themselves. It was the volume of noise that surrounded them. The AI agents produced a large number of confident-sounding reports, and the majority turned out to be wrong, duplicated, or pointing to code paths that are unreachable in practice.

That dynamic is not unique to Ethereum. Across the broader security industry, AI-assisted discovery is driving a sharp rise in reported vulnerabilities, but the subset that genuinely requires action remains far smaller. The challenge has shifted from finding bugs to sorting them. Triage, validation, and response are now the bottlenecks, and human capacity for that work remains limited.

The lesson from the Ethereum Foundation's exercise reflects that reality. AI can scan a codebase at a scale no manual team could match, but the credibility of any finding still depends on an experienced human reviewer at the end of the pipeline. Getting that balance right will likely define how effective AI-assisted security becomes across the broader blockchain ecosystem.

Separately, the Foundation raised its maximum bug bounty from $250,000 to $1,000,000 for critical protocol vulnerabilities, with reports acknowledged within 48 hours and an initial assessment completed within one week. That expanded program signals how seriously the Foundation is treating protocol security as a strategic priority.

Sources:
Ethereum Foundation Blog: Triage Is the Product
Ethereum Foundation ESP: AI-Powered Protocol Security Research Grant
Ethereum Foundation Bug Bounty Raised to $1 Million