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Stifel analyst Tore Svanberg raised the price target for ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ:ON) from $75 to $80. With the inventory correction largely complete but demand recovery still developing, the analyst maintained the Hold rating on the stock.

• ON Semiconductor shares are consolidating. What’s the outlook for ON shares?

Cautious About Demand Recovery PaceThe analyst cites the need for greater visibility into the recovery across its Industrial and Automotive businesses following the recent inventory correction.

At the same time, ON Semi’s growing design-win pipeline across AI/data centers, electric vehicles and energy infrastructure could support stronger margins and provide exposure to a $213 billion total addressable market by 2030, notes the analyst.

The analyst expects the company to report third-quarter revenue slightly above its $1.70 billion estimate, with non-GAAP EPS of 87 cents (versus consensus of 88 cents).

For the fourth quarter, Svanberg forecasts revenue of $1.73 billion, in line with Street consensus, along with non-GAAP EPS of 97 cents versus the 95 cents consensus. The projected December-quarter revenue growth is also above the five-year seasonal average decline of 1.8%.

Estimates Double-Digit Long-Term GrowthThe analyst expects the company to eventually deliver its 12%-14% long-term revenue CAGR target, aided by its diversified customer base and presence across multiple end markets.

Svanberg also believes On Semi’s business transformation and leaner cost structure have improved its margin floor during downturns.

Despite the improving backdrop, the analyst remains cautious about the timing and strength of further gross-margin expansion following the 80-basis-point sequential improvement.

Higher costs could weigh on margins in the near to medium term, while management has yet to see a meaningful Automotive inventory replenishment cycle, adds the analyst.

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ON Stock Price Activity: ON Semiconductor shares were up 1% at $85.76 at the time of publication on Monday.

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Jefferies initiated coverage of connected-operations platform Samsara (NYSE: IOT) with a 'buy' rating and a $50 price target, saying the company is well positioned to gain share in a large, underpenetrated market for physical operations technology.

Samsara’s platform combines software, proprietary hardware, artificial intelligence, analytics and automation to help businesses reduce liability and improve productivity across physical operations.

Jefferies estimates Samsara can deliver a 22% revenue compound annual growth rate through fiscal 2029, reaching nearly $3 billion of revenue while maintaining a Rule of 40 margin profile.

The analyst said Samsara’s platform processes more than 30 trillion data points annually, creating a proprietary data asset that supports increasingly valuable AI insights, automation and new product development.

Jefferies also sees limited risk from AI-related employee displacement because Samsara’s pricing is primarily linked to physical assets rather than users or employees.

Samsara has captured about 1% of its self-defined $175 billion global addressable market, while penetration of its core product opportunity remains below 5%, leaving room for new customer wins, enterprise share gains and international expansion.

Jefferies highlighted Samsara’s 115% or higher core customer net revenue retention, supported by customers adding products beyond telematics and video safety to include equipment monitoring, asset tracking, routing, maintenance and workflow automation.

The analyst said 96% of large customers use at least two Samsara products, while 72% use three or more, with emerging products contributing more than 20% of new annual contract value.

Jefferies expects upward revisions to Samsara’s conservative fiscal 2027 guidance, supported by improving cRPO and billings coverage, strong customer retention and multi-product adoption.

The shares trade at 10 times calendar 2028 enterprise value to gross profit, according to Jefferies, which sees its $50 target, equivalent to 12.7 times, as justified by comparable growth and profitability.

Key Takeaways Quanta raised its 2026 free cash flow outlook to $2-$2.5 billion after a strong first half.Record backlog of $53.4 billion supports Quanta's revenue visibility and cash-generation outlook.Quanta's cash flow could fluctuate with project timing, working capital, capex and acquisitions. Quanta Services (PWR - Free Report) is entering the second half of 2026 with strengthening cash-generation momentum, supported by robust operating performance, favorable working-capital trends and strong demand across its critical-infrastructure markets.

During the second quarter, Quanta generated operating cash flow of $1.10 billion and free cash flow (FCF) of $886 million. First-half FCF reached $1.07 billion, sharply higher than $288 million in the comparable 2025 period. Management attributed the second-quarter strength partly to favorable working-capital dynamics, particularly from large-load and renewable projects, while days sales outstanding improved to 57 days.

Strong Operations Support Higher Cash OutlookFollowing the strong first half, Quanta raised its full-year 2026 FCF outlook to $2-$2.5 billion, alongside operating cash flow expectations of $2.9-$3.4 billion. The outlook is underpinned by record backlog, expanding project activity and rising investment in electric grids, power generation, data centers and other mission-critical infrastructure.

Quanta's record $53.4 billion backlog also provides substantial revenue visibility, while its self-perform model, broader project scope and efficient resource utilization could help sustain profitability and cash conversion.

Can the Momentum Continue?Cash generation nevertheless could fluctuate with project timing and working-capital requirements. Quanta also expects roughly $900 million of net capital expenditures in 2026, while acquisitions continue to absorb capital. Weather, permitting, supply-chain issues, inflation and project execution remain additional risks.

Still, strong backlog, healthy end-market demand and improving collections suggest Quanta remains well positioned to sustain solid cash momentum through 2026.

Quanta Faces Competition From MasTec and EMCORQuanta Services faces competition from MasTec, Inc. (MTZ - Free Report) and EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME - Free Report) across power, electrical and mission-critical infrastructure markets. MasTec continues to strengthen its position through rising activity in power delivery, clean energy and data-center infrastructure. Its record $21.4 billion backlog supports future growth, while management expects more than $1 billion of operating cash flow in 2026. However, MasTec generated negative $59 million of free cash flow in the second quarter, highlighting comparatively greater working-capital and investment requirements.

EMCOR, meanwhile, is benefiting from strong demand across electrical and mechanical construction, particularly network and communications, manufacturing and other mission-critical markets. Record RPOs of $17.14 billion provide solid revenue visibility, while EMCOR’s operating discipline and strong revenue-to-cash-flow conversion reinforce its financial flexibility. Overall, both competitors have healthy pipelines, but Quanta’s stronger current free-cash-flow momentum remains an important competitive advantage.

PWR Stock’s Price Performance & Valuation TrendPWR stock has gained 58.1% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Engineering - R and D Services industry, the Zacks Construction sector and the S&P 500 Index.

Quanta's 1-Year Price Performance

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

PWR stock is currently trading at a premium compared with the industry peers, with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 36.07, as evidenced by the chart below.

Quanta Stock's Valuation (P/E F12M)

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Earnings Estimate Revision of PWRPWR’s earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 are pinned at $16.70 and $19.41 per share, respectively, reflecting an upward trend over the past 30 days. The revised estimates for 2026 and 2027 imply year-over-year growth of 55.4% and 16.2%, respectively.
 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Quanta currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Key Takeaways Ultragenyx's MPS IIIA gene therapy gained EMA validation, advancing its application toward formal review.Clinical data showed a durable efficacy nearly 8 years after treatment with an acceptable safety profile.Gene therapy-treated patients showed a 23.5-point greater mean Bayley-III Cognitive score change. Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE - Free Report) announced that the European Medicines Agency (EMA) has validated its Marketing Authorization Application (MAA) for the investigational gene therapy rebisufligene etisparvovec (also known as UX111) to treat mucopolysaccharidosis type IIIA (MPS IIIA), also known as Sanfilippo syndrome Type A. The validation marks a key regulatory milestone as the therapy advances toward formal review in Europe.

EMA validation confirms that the application is sufficiently complete for the agency to begin its scientific assessment. However, the validation does not indicate the therapy’s safety or efficacy, nor does it guarantee that the MAA will ultimately be approved. As an investigational advanced therapy, the MAA will undergo the EU’s Joint Clinical Assessment, which supports a coordinated clinical evaluation across EU member states as part of the broader pathway to patient access.

Last month, Ultragenyx received standard full FDA approval for rebisufligene etisparvovec to be marketed in the United States as Fayuvi for treating the neurologic manifestations of MPS IIIA in pediatric patients with preserved neurodevelopmental function. The approval made Fayuvi the first FDA-approved treatment for the rare and fatal neurodegenerative disorder. The approval marked Ultragenyx’s second gene therapy approval and sixth FDA approval overall.

Ultragenyx in-licensed the drug from Abeona Therapeutics in 2022 under an exclusive agreement for ABO-102, which RARE later developed as UX111. Under the deal, Ultragenyx assumed responsibility for the program and obtained exclusive rights to develop, manufacture and commercialize the therapy worldwide. In return, Abeona is eligible for tiered royalties ranging from mid-single-digit percentages to 8% of net sales, along with up to $30 million in commercial milestone payments following regulatory approval.

Clinical Data Backs the FDA Approval of RARE’s MPS IIIA DrugThe EMA validation of the MAA for rebisufligene etisparvovec in MPS IIIA is supported by data from the pivotal Transpher A study and long-term follow-up studies. According to Ultragenyx, clinical data now extend to nearly eight years and show a durable treatment effect across multiple clinical assessments and biomarkers, while maintaining an acceptable safety profile. Biochemical efficacy was demonstrated through reductions in accumulated cerebrospinal fluid heparan sulfate levels, reflecting replacement of the deficient enzyme responsible for the disease throughout the study and across all age groups.

Year to date, Ultragenyx shares have plunged 33.8% against the industry’s 4% growth.

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The key efficacy analysis compared 17 rebisufligene etisparvovec-treated patients in the modified intention-to-treat population with 27 untreated patients from an external natural-history cohort. Between 24 and 60 months of age, rebisufligene etisparvovec-treated patients demonstrated a 23.5-point greater mean change in Bayley-III Cognitive raw score compared with the natural-history group. The difference was statistically significant and provided the efficacy basis for the FDA’s standard full approval.

MPS IIIA is an ultra-rare lysosomal storage disorder caused by mutations that result in a deficiency of the sulfamidase enzyme. The resulting accumulation of heparan sulfate primarily damages the central nervous system, leading to progressive developmental delay and eventual loss of cognitive, language and motor abilities. Ultragenyx estimates that the disease affects approximately 3,000 to 5,000 patients across commercially accessible geographies, with a median life expectancy of about 15 years.

Ultragenyx’s rebisufligene etisparvovec is designed as a single-dose intravenous AAV9 gene therapy that delivers a functional copy of the SGSH gene. This enables production of the sulfamidase enzyme that is deficient in patients with MPS IIIA and is intended to address the underlying cause of the disease.

Treatment options for children affected by MPS IIIA remain limited outside the United States, underscoring the significant unmet medical need in this patient population. Rebisufligene etisparvovec has received Priority Medicines (PRIME) and Orphan Drug designations from the EMA, reflecting the rarity and severity of MPS IIIA and the need for new treatment options. These designations support the development and regulatory evaluation of medicines for serious and rare conditions and do not imply that marketing authorization will ultimately be granted.

Ultragenyx is also engaging with health authorities across multiple regions, including initiating discussions with the regulatory bodies in the United Kingdom and Saudi Arabia, as it works toward potential geographic expansion.

RARE’s Zacks Rank & Stocks to ConsiderUltragenyx currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Some better-ranked stocks in the biotech sector are Precigen (PGEN - Free Report) , currently sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), and AC Immune (ACIU - Free Report) and Aldeyra Therapeutics (ALDX - Free Report) , each carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Over the past 60 days, estimates for Precigen’s 2026 bottom line have improved from a loss of 2 cents to earnings per share of 24 cents. Over the same period, earnings estimates for 2027 have risen from 25 cents to 73 cents. PGEN shares have increased 104.3% year to date.

Precigen’s earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in the remaining one, with the average surprise being 108.96%.

Over the past 60 days, estimates for AC Immune’s 2026 loss per share have narrowed from 84 cents to 60 cents. Over the same period, earnings estimates for 2027 remained unchanged at 17 cents. ACIU shares have lost 13.2% year to date.

AC Immune’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 33.25%.

Over the past 60 days, loss per share estimates for Aldeyra Therapeutics have narrowed from 43 cents to 39 cents for 2026. Over the same period, estimates for 2027 loss per share have narrowed from 22 cents to 16 cents. ALDX shares have plunged 77.4% year to date.

Aldeyra Therapeutics’ earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 29.25%.

Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. (NASDAQ:CRDO – Get Free Report) fell 4.8% on Monday after an insider sold shares in the company. The stock traded as low as $206.35 and last traded at $208.1210. 1,404,463 shares changed hands during trading, a decline of 81% from the average daily volume of 7,497,591 shares. The stock had previously closed at $218.64.

Specifically, COO Yat Lam sold 50,000 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction dated Thursday, October 1st. The stock was sold at an average price of $205.22, for a total value of $10,261,000.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the chief operating officer owned 2,254,169 shares in the company, valued at $462,600,562.18. This trade represents a 2.17% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a document filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available through this hyperlink. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. The sale was made to cover tax withholding obligations related to the vesting of equity awards. Also, CTO Chi Cheng sold 27,500 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Tuesday, September 29th. The shares were sold at an average price of $193.93, for a total transaction of $5,333,075.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the chief technology officer owned 5,662,397 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $1,098,108,650.21. This trade represents a 0.48% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. In related news, COO Yat Lam sold 50,000 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Friday, September 25th. The shares were sold at an average price of $206.30, for a total transaction of $10,315,000.00. Following the sale, the chief operating officer owned 2,479,169 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $511,452,564.70. This represents a 1.98% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which is accessible through this hyperlink. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan.

Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades CRDO has been the topic of several research analyst reports. Wall Street Zen cut shares of Credo Technology Group from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Saturday, August 1st. Rosenblatt Securities upped their target price on Credo Technology Group from $215.00 to $235.00 and gave the stock a “neutral” rating in a research note on Wednesday, September 2nd. Barclays raised their price target on Credo Technology Group from $260.00 to $300.00 and gave the company an “overweight” rating in a report on Monday, July 20th. Stifel Nicolaus lowered their target price on shares of Credo Technology Group from $350.00 to $310.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a research note on Monday. Finally, Weiss Ratings raised shares of Credo Technology Group from a “hold (c)” rating to a “hold (c+)” rating in a research note on Friday, September 18th. One investment analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, fourteen have issued a Buy rating and three have assigned a Hold rating to the company’s stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, Credo Technology Group currently has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of $262.67.

View Our Latest Stock Report on Credo Technology Group Credo Technology Group Trading Down 3.6% The business’s fifty day simple moving average is $207.21 and its 200-day simple moving average is $198.59. The firm has a market cap of $39.62 billion, a P/E ratio of 74.42, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 0.87 and a beta of 3.25.

Credo Technology Group (NASDAQ:CRDO – Get Free Report) last posted its earnings results on Tuesday, September 1st. The company reported $1.20 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $1.17 by $0.03. Credo Technology Group had a return on equity of 28.77% and a net margin of 33.83%.The company had revenue of $479.00 million for the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $473.30 million. During the same period last year, the firm earned $0.52 earnings per share. Credo Technology Group’s quarterly revenue was up 114.7% on a year-over-year basis. Analysts anticipate that Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. will post 5.02 earnings per share for the current year.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Credo Technology Group A number of hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in CRDO. Polaris Financial Partners purchased a new stake in Credo Technology Group in the third quarter worth $681,000. GoalVest Advisory LLC increased its position in Credo Technology Group by 49,226.5% during the 3rd quarter. GoalVest Advisory LLC now owns 24,170 shares of the company’s stock valued at $4,708,000 after purchasing an additional 24,121 shares during the period. Burkett Financial Services LLC bought a new position in Credo Technology Group in the 3rd quarter worth $33,000. QRG Capital Management Inc. raised its holdings in Credo Technology Group by 20.8% in the 2nd quarter. QRG Capital Management Inc. now owns 6,527 shares of the company’s stock worth $1,774,000 after purchasing an additional 1,125 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Envestnet Portfolio Solutions Inc. purchased a new stake in shares of Credo Technology Group in the 2nd quarter worth about $548,000. Institutional investors own 80.46% of the company’s stock.

Credo Technology Group Company Profile (Get Free Report)

Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. develops high-speed connectivity solutions for data infrastructure. Its technologies are designed to improve the performance, power efficiency and reliability of connections used in cloud computing, artificial intelligence, high-performance computing, telecommunications and enterprise networks.

The company’s product portfolio includes serializer/deserializer (SerDes) intellectual property, integrated circuits, active electrical cables and optical connectivity products.

Read More Five stocks we like better than Credo Technology Group First Citizens BancShares vs MP Materials: A Tale of 2 Regulation Bets These 3 Short-Squeeze Candidates Have Catalysts, But Their Risks Are Just as Large 3 High-Yield Dividend Stocks That May Be Safer Than They Seem Insider Trades: Dell Sees Over $1 Billion in Sales, Berkshire Buys a Top Homebuilder Receive News & Ratings for Credo Technology Group Daily - Enter your email address below to receive a concise daily summary of the latest news and analysts' ratings for Credo Technology Group and related companies with MarketBeat.com's FREE daily email newsletter.

Key Takeaways Oceaneering secured a five-year follow-on award from the Navy for Dry Deck Shelter program support.Oceaneering has supported the Dry Deck Shelter program since 2002, building specialized mission expertise.The contract adds potential recurring work while broadening Oceaneering's exposure to defense markets. Oceaneering International, Inc. (OII - Free Report) announced that its Aerospace and Defense Technologies (“ADTech”) segment has secured a follow-on contract from the U.S. Navy to support the Dry Deck Shelter program. The five-year award, which includes one base year and four option years, carries a potential value of $154 million.

The agreement covers maintenance, overhaul, engineering and field change services for Dry Deck Shelters, specialized systems that help enable the deployment of special operations forces and undersea vehicles. For Oceaneering, the award reinforces its position in the U.S. defense market while creating the potential for recurring work over the five-year contract period within its ADTech business.

New Contract Expands Revenue VisibilityThe structure of the contract is important from an investor perspective. While the full $154 million value depends on the exercise of the four option years, the initial base-year award provides a foundation for continued engagement with the Navy. Multi-year contracts can improve revenue visibility and help contractors plan staffing, equipment and resources around established program requirements.

The follow-on nature of the award also distinguishes it from a new customer win. Oceaneering has supported the Navy’s Dry Deck Shelter program since 2002, giving the company a long operating history with the mission. That experience can be valuable in programs where reliability, technical proficiency and familiarity with demanding operating conditions are critical.

Longstanding Expertise Supports Competitive PositionDry Deck Shelter operations involve mission-sensitive activities in which system performance and safety are essential. Oceaneering’s ADTech Marine Services Division has built specialized expertise around sustaining these systems, including maintenance, overhaul and engineering support.

The company’s long relationship with the Navy may strengthen its competitive standing as it continues to pursue work in the undersea defense market. Customers operating specialized military systems often place significant emphasis on technical knowledge, execution discipline and the ability to perform work under strict schedules. Oceaneering’s experience in this program positions the company to address those requirements.

The award also highlights the broader capabilities of ADTech. Oceaneering said the segment provides engineered solutions for U.S. Navy undersea programs and draws on decades of experience in building and sustaining both manned and unmanned subsea systems. This technical foundation gives the company exposure to defense applications that require specialized engineering rather than commoditized services.

Defense Exposure Could Broaden Business MixFor investors, the contract underscores the role that defense and government-related work can play in diversifying Oceaneering’s business. The company is widely associated with subsea technologies and services, but its ADTech operations provide exposure to aerospace and defense applications where long-duration programs can generate more predictable opportunities.

A larger contribution from defense contracts could also help Oceaneering balance fluctuations across other areas of its portfolio. Demand in energy-related markets can vary with commodity prices, offshore activity and customer capital spending. The defense business can provide exposure to programs tied to long-term operational requirements, potentially complementing demand across Oceaneering’s offshore energy businesses. While contract awards do not eliminate business volatility, they can add another source of demand.

Specialized Workforce Remains an AssetThe award also places a spotlight on Oceaneering’s specialized workforce. Management noted that the Dry Deck Shelter program operates on tight schedules and requires personnel with a high level of proficiency in mission-critical work. Maintaining such expertise can create an important barrier to entry in technically demanding defense programs. Oceaneering’s ability to retain knowledge from more than two decades of supporting the Navy could help it execute the latest contract efficiently and compete for related assignments.

Management’s comments also indicate that safety and reliability remain central to the company’s role in the program. That focus is particularly relevant for undersea systems supporting special operations, where equipment availability and dependable performance are essential. Sustained execution in these areas can enhance customer confidence and reinforce Oceaneering’s credentials across the broader undersea market.

Execution Will Remain KeyThe $154 million potential value is meaningful, but investors should focus on execution as the program progresses. Since the award includes four option years, actual revenues and profitability will depend on contract performance, customer requirements and the exercise of those options.

Oceaneering’s established relationship with the Navy is a positive factor because the company has a track record on the program. Continued execution could strengthen its position for future opportunities within the undersea enterprise and help extend its role across other specialized defense programs.

The latest award therefore represents more than an incremental contract win. It reinforces Oceaneering’s longstanding relationship with the U.S. Navy, adds potential revenue visibility and highlights the technical capabilities of its ADTech segment. With demand for reliable undersea systems remaining strategically important, the contract could support Oceaneering’s efforts to expand its presence in specialized defense markets while complementing its broader subsea business.

OII's Zacks Rank & Other Key PicksCurrently, OII has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Investors interested in the energy sector might consider some better-ranked stocks, such as Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) and Delek US Holdings (DK - Free Report) , each sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), and Chevron Corporation (CVX - Free Report) , carrying a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Marathon Petroleum is valued at $123.29 billion. Marathon Petroleum is a leading U.S. independent refiner, marketer and transporter of petroleum products, with a strong refining footprint and an extensive midstream business. The company benefits from its integrated operations, strategic refining assets and diversified earnings streams across the energy value chain.

Delek US Holdings is valued at $4.54 billion. It is a diversified downstream energy company engaged in petroleum refining, renewable fuels, asphalt production and logistics operations. Delek US Holdings operates multiple refineries in the United States and is committed to delivering safe, reliable energy while investing in cleaner energy initiatives.

Chevron is valued at $408.37 billion. Chevron is a leading integrated energy company engaged in exploring, producing, refining and marketing oil and natural gas. The company’s diversified operations, strong production base and focus on capital discipline support long-term growth and shareholder returns.

Key Takeaways Magnolia expects $100M in annual WildFire synergies, with one-third realized by year-end 2026.Q4 production is forecast at 159-161 Mboe/d as Magnolia enters its first full pro forma quarter.MGY plans dividends, quarterly share repurchases and excess cash flow toward lower leverage. Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY - Free Report) is moving quickly to integrate WildFire Energy while laying out a more ambitious production and capital framework for the newly combined business. The company provided an interim update that highlighted early portfolio actions, stronger-than-expected deleveraging and a larger production base following the acquisition.

WildFire Adds Scale and Operating EfficiencyMagnolia said the WildFire transaction is progressing smoothly and should strengthen its position across the Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk. The combined portfolio is expected to deliver 4% to 5% annual organic growth in both oil and total production, while keeping drilling and completion (D&C) capital reinvestment well below 55% of adjusted EBITDAX.

Management also expects more than $100 million of annual run-rate synergies from the deal, with at least one-third expected to be realized by year-end 2026. The larger, contiguous South Texas position is expected to improve operating efficiency and free cash flow.

Magnolia has already completed several portfolio actions. It sold non-core properties in Dimmit and Zavala counties for $47.5 million and received 616 net acres in Gonzales County. The added acreage lifted its average operated working interest in the contiguous Karnes position to 98%. The divested properties had about 1.4 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboe/d) of next-12-month production, roughly 84% of which was oil.

Balance Sheet Progress Supports Capital ReturnsPer the company’s press release, MGY ended the third quarter with approximately $1.9 billion of net debt. At current strip prices, leverage was below 1.0x net debt to 2027E EBITDA, putting the company more than a year ahead of the deleveraging timetable initially expected when WildFire was announced.

The improved balance sheet gives Magnolia room to pursue shareholder returns while reducing debt. The company plans to maintain a safe and growing dividend, repurchase at least 1% of outstanding shares each quarter and direct excess free cash flow toward a target of 0.5x net debt to EBITDA or lower. During the third quarter, Magnolia repurchased about 2.3 million shares, leaving roughly 267 million shares outstanding at the end of the quarter.

Production and Capital Spending OutlookFor the third quarter of 2026, Magnolia expects production of 116 to 118 Mboe/d, with oil accounting for about 42% of output. D&C capital spending is expected at $155 million to $165 million.

The fourth quarter will be the first full pro forma quarter following the WildFire acquisition. Production is expected at 159 to 161 Mboe/d, with oil comprising 49% to 50% of total volumes. D&C capital spending is forecast at about $235 million. For 2027, Magnolia expects oil and total production to increase 4% to 5% from the second-quarter 2026 pro forma base of roughly 78 Mbod of oil and 158 Mboe/d of total production. D&C capital spending is projected at $900 million to $950 million, including a modest allowance for oilfield service inflation.

The company also issued detailed fourth-quarter guidance. Lease operating expense is expected at $5.80 to $6.20 per barrel of oil equivalent (BOE), while gathering, processing and transportation costs are projected at $1.80 to $2.10 per Boe. Depreciation, depletion and amortization is guided at $14 to $15 per BOE. Production and ad valorem taxes are expected at 5.5% to 6.5%, interest expense at $35 million to $40 million and the effective tax rate at approximately 21%. Cash taxes are projected at 0% to 2%, and pre-hedge oil realization to MEH is expected at negative $2 per barrel. Magnolia also allows for opportunistic short-term hedging based on oil-price volatility.

Hedging and Free Cash Flow ProtectionMagnolia strengthened oil-price protection by adding costless collars to hedges inherited through the WildFire acquisition. More than half of oil production is now hedged through the second quarter of 2027, supporting debt reduction while retaining upside exposure to higher prices.

The newly added collars cover 3.68 million barrels in fourth-quarter 2026 at a weighted average floor of $73.75 per barrel and ceiling of $90.97. For the first and second quarters of 2027, the added volumes total 2.7 million and 2.275 million barrels, respectively, with floors of $70.83 and $70 and ceilings of $88.68 and $82.31. Another 920,000 barrels are hedged for the third quarter of 2027 with a $70 floor and $80.08 ceiling. Magnolia also retains inherited WildFire swaps with weighted average prices ranging from $63.46 to $67.37 per barrel across the first three quarters of 2027.

Investment TakeawayMagnolia enters the post-WildFire period with a larger asset base, clearer production visibility and a stronger balance sheet. The company is pairing 4% to 5% expected annual production growth with disciplined capital spending, meaningful cost synergies and a stated commitment to dividends and share repurchases.

The key issue for investors will be execution. Magnolia must integrate WildFire while delivering the projected synergies, sustaining production growth and continuing to lower leverage. The larger resource base, improving free cash flow and hedging provide a solid framework, but capital discipline and execution remain important as the acquisition flows into results.

MGY's Zacks Rank & Key PicksCurrently, MGY has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Investors interested in the energy sector might consider some better-ranked stocks, such as Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) and Delek US Holdings (DK - Free Report) , each sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), and Oceaneering International (OII - Free Report) , carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present. You can seethe complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Marathon Petroleum is valued at $123.29 billion. Marathon Petroleum is a leading U.S. independent refiner, marketer and transporter of petroleum products, with a strong refining footprint and an extensive midstream business. The company benefits from its integrated operations, strategic refining assets and diversified earnings streams across the energy value chain.

Delek US Holdings is valued at $4.54 billion. It is a diversified downstream energy company engaged in petroleum refining, renewable fuels, asphalt production and logistics operations. Delek US Holdings operates multiple refineries in the United States and is committed to delivering safe, reliable energy while investing in cleaner energy initiatives.

Oceaneering International is valued at $4.41 billion. It is a global technology and engineering company. Oceaneering International provides subsea robotics, offshore services, engineered products and advanced solutions to the energy, defense, aerospace and other industries.  

Saturn Launches sUSDat V2 With Ondo Integration@saturn_credit, a decentralized private credit protocol, has upgraded its flagship product to sUSDat V2 through a new integration with @Ondo Finance. The upgrade introduces 24/7 liquidity, real-time on-chain pricing, and improved composability for institutional debt pools, replacing what the teams describe as inefficient legacy clearing processes.

At the core of the upgrade is the STRCon execution model running on Ondo's network. STRCon is Ondo's tokenized version of Strategy's STRC preferred stock, providing blockchain-based economic exposure to the underlying asset. By routing through STRCon rather than holding STRC directly, Saturn shifts every asset-swapping route on-chain where it can be verified in real time, and no longer needs to operate its own brokerage and custody setup, with Ondo handling that layer instead.

Faster Settlements and Broader DeFi CompatibilityThe practical impact on settlement speed is significant. The upgrade cuts sUSDat redemption time for the USDat underlying asset from the current T+7 to T+1, replacing multi-day waiting periods with on-chain valuation models. This makes structured credit instruments directly compatible with broader DeFi protocols.

USDat is a dollar-pegged asset backed by tokenized U.S. Treasury bills, and users can stake USDat to receive sUSDat, whose reserve is tied to STRC and whose value rises as dividends from the preferred shares accrue. The V2 architecture preserves this dual-token structure while adding the speed and transparency that on-chain settlement enables.

The partnership also carries a financial dimension. Ondo made a strategic investment in Saturn, though financial details were not disclosed. Saturn previously reported deposits exceeding $220 million across USDat and sUSDat within six weeks of earlier launches, illustrating demand for on-chain access to the STRC yield profile.

On the infrastructure side, Ondo Finance has built the Ondo Network as an execution environment tailored for modern financial markets, delivering rapid processing and confidentiality associated with traditional centralized platforms while retaining blockchain-style verifiability. The products are available only to eligible participants outside the US and EEA, with yield described as variable and not guaranteed.

Sources:
crypto.news: Saturn adds Ondo tokenized stocks to STRC products
The Crypto Times: Saturn Partners With Ondo to Bring Tokenized STRC Into DeFi
Crowdfund Insider: Ondo Finance Unveils Execution Network

Eli Lilly (LLY +1.07%) is a top healthcare company, and it has a ton of money it can afford to invest in emerging opportunities. Artificial intelligence (AI) is one of the biggest ones right now, as using AI to accelerate drug discovery could do wonders for its business.

The company has launched Lilly TuneLab, which uses AI and machine learning to potentially speed up drug discovery efforts. Last month, Lilly reached a deal with biotech stock Ginkgo Bioworks (DNA +19.35%), which programs cells. Ginkgo has billions of data points that Lilly can leverage, and these can be made available quickly with the help of AI.

The excitement around this development appears to have created a tremendous amount of bullishness around Ginkgo's stock, which has now doubled in value since that announcement came out on Sept. 15. Its market cap is around $1 billion. Is it too late to buy shares of Ginkgo, or could there still be more gains ahead for investors who invest in the business today?

Image source: Getty Images.

Deals haven't translated into strong financials for Ginkgo in the pastGinkgo has secured deals with many types of companies in the past, but its financial results remain choppy, and profits remain elusive.

In its most recent quarter, which ended on June 30, Ginkgo's revenue totaled $20.2 million, a sharp decline from the $39.1 million it reported in the same period a year ago, as the company has been in the midst of restructuring efforts. And even with lower operating expenses in the most recent quarter, the company's operating loss of $58.5 million was slightly worse compared with the $58.2 million loss it reported a year ago.

While there is significant potential for Ginkgo in the healthcare industry, the problem is that the numbers just aren't there to show that the business is on the right track. And although the stock has been rallying of late, it's still down an incredible 97% in five years.

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Ginkgo's stock remains highly riskyInvestor sentiment around Ginkgo has improved significantly since the company announced its deal with Eli Lilly. Prior to that, it was looking like 2026 would be another down year for the stock.

However, investors should tread carefully here because this is not exactly new territory for Ginkgo. It's been involved in many deals in the past, with seemingly plentiful growth opportunities ahead, only for the results to fail to live up to expectations. The same could happen for investors who invest in the stock today. While its ambitions are high, that doesn't mean there will be a payoff for investors who buy today.

Taking a wait-and-see approach is the safest option for investors today, because until Ginkgo can generate some much stronger results, it'll remain a highly risky investment to own.

Arm just posted a 187% year-to-date run on the back of real AI demand, but a beta of 3.89 turns every market hiccup into a violent swing, and the stock has already priced in a lot of good news. The…

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Arm Holdings (NASDAQ:ARM | ARM Price Prediction) climbed 7.48% in today’s session and now trades near $314.71. Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Arm is $290.01 over the next 12 months, which implies -7.85% downside.

Metric Value Current Price $314.71 24/7 Wall St. Price Target $290.01 Upside/Downside -7.85% Rating HOLD Confidence Level 90% Our model rates Arm a hold with high confidence. Fundamentals look strong. Price is the concern: at a beta of 3.89, Arm moves far more sharply than the broader market in both directions, and the stock has already priced in a lot of good news.

Why We Could Be Wrong Our target sits below the current price, and Arm has real catalysts. Management says demand for its Arm AGI CPU now exceeds $2 billion, and data center royalties more than doubled year over year again.

A faster silicon ramp could prove the model too cautious. Treat the 24/7 Wall St. price target as one datapoint among many. A full bull case follows below.

A 187% Year-to-Date Run Powered by Revenue Growth Arm is up 187.45% year to date, 33.81% over the past month and 2.57% over the past week. The shares remain about 30% below the 52-week high of $452.70 and roughly 215% above the low of $100.02.

In Q1 FY2027, revenue reached $1.289B, up 22.4% and ahead of estimates. GAAP EPS of $0.25 missed expectations, while non-GAAP EPS of 45 cents came in above the high end of guidance. For Q2, management guided to revenue of $1.38 billion, plus or minus $50 million.

Why Bulls See $424 Ahead Our bull case reaches $423.70. Getting there depends on the AGI CPU, Armv9 royalty mix and hyperscaler adoption. NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) Vera and custom CPUs from other major hyperscalers all run on Arm.

Management also sees the CPU market growing beyond $100 billion-plus. Analysts lean bullish: 27 rate the stock a Buy or Strong Buy, against only 2 Sell ratings.

What a 3.89 Beta Means on the Way Down Our bear case falls to $230.01. The consensus analyst target of $288.70 already trails the stock. First-generation AGI CPU gross margins are expected in the high 30% range, maybe low 40s, well below the IP model’s 92.48% gross margin.

Other risks include the Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) litigation trial in Q4 2026, dependence on Arm China and smartphone weakness. As a counterpoint, much of the GAAP margin compression traces to R&D spending of $838M and stock-based compensation of $343M. That spending funds future growth.

Arm Trades at a Steep Premium to NVIDIA and Qualcomm NVIDIA is a key Arm customer through Vera. It trades at 46x trailing earnings while revenue grew 105.85%.

Qualcomm is both a licensing-model peer and Arm’s litigation opponent, and it trades at 35x earnings.

Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) competes for custom AI silicon spending and grew AI revenue 221%.

Company Trailing P/E P/FCF Arm 345x 319x NVIDIA 46x 58x Qualcomm 35x 15x Next to its peers, our target looks reasonable or even generous.

Arm Price Prediction 2026-2030 My view: the 24/7 Wall St. price target of $290.01 and hold rating hold up with 90% confidence. Valuation is the deciding factor.

The case gets stronger if Arm’s Q3 update shows AGI CPU demand turning into revenue above $1 billion. It weakens if royalty growth stalls in the high teens. At 129x forward earnings, the valuation leaves little room for error until earnings catch up.

Year 24/7 Wall St. Price Target 2026 $317.66 2027 $294.10 2028 $265.80 2029 $277.06 2030 $293.50 These projections assume Arm keeps executing its current strategy. The 2030 bull case reaches $595.89 if the silicon business scales.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Walker & Dunlop, Inc. (NYSE:WD – Get Free Report)’s stock price hit a new 52-week low during mid-day trading on Monday. The company traded as low as $33.21 and last traded at $33.3650, with a volume of 9194 shares traded. The stock had previously closed at $33.97.

Analysts Set New Price Targets A number of research analysts have recently commented on the stock. Citigroup reaffirmed a “market outperform” rating on shares of Walker & Dunlop in a research note on Tuesday, August 18th. Weiss Ratings cut shares of Walker & Dunlop from a “hold (c-)” rating to a “sell (d+)” rating in a research report on Tuesday, August 18th. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods lowered their target price on shares of Walker & Dunlop from $63.00 to $57.00 and set an “outperform” rating for the company in a report on Friday, August 7th. Citizens Jmp dropped their price target on shares of Walker & Dunlop from $70.00 to $55.00 and set a “market outperform” rating for the company in a research report on Tuesday, August 18th. Finally, Wall Street Zen raised shares of Walker & Dunlop from a “sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a research report on Saturday, August 29th. Five equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and one has given a Sell rating to the company’s stock. According to data from MarketBeat, the stock presently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $64.00.

Check Out Our Latest Analysis on WD

Walker & Dunlop Stock Performance The business has a fifty day moving average price of $41.74 and a 200 day moving average price of $46.92. The company has a market capitalization of $1.15 billion, a PE ratio of 29.85 and a beta of 1.52. Walker & Dunlop (NYSE:WD – Get Free Report) last issued its earnings results on Thursday, August 6th. The financial services provider reported $1.19 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.90 by $0.29. The business had revenue of $306.69 million during the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $337.37 million. Walker & Dunlop had a return on equity of 7.25% and a net margin of 2.94%.The company’s revenue for the quarter was down 3.9% on a year-over-year basis. During the same quarter in the previous year, the business earned $1.15 EPS.

Walker & Dunlop Announces Dividend The firm also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Thursday, September 3rd. Stockholders of record on Thursday, August 20th were paid a $0.68 dividend. This represents a $2.72 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 8.1%. The ex-dividend date of this dividend was Thursday, August 20th. Walker & Dunlop’s dividend payout ratio (DPR) is currently 242.86%.

Institutional Trading of Walker & Dunlop A number of institutional investors have recently added to or reduced their stakes in WD. BlackRock Inc. purchased a new position in Walker & Dunlop in the second quarter valued at about $289,614,000. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP grew its stake in shares of Walker & Dunlop by 8.2% in the first quarter. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP now owns 1,369,114 shares of the financial services provider’s stock valued at $60,760,000 after buying an additional 104,008 shares in the last quarter. Jupiter Topco LLC purchased a new stake in shares of Walker & Dunlop during the 2nd quarter valued at about $63,434,000. Conversant Capital LLC raised its holdings in shares of Walker & Dunlop by 33.0% during the 1st quarter. Conversant Capital LLC now owns 560,316 shares of the financial services provider’s stock valued at $24,867,000 after buying an additional 138,936 shares during the period. Finally, Alyeska Investment Group L.P. lifted its position in Walker & Dunlop by 3.7% during the 2nd quarter. Alyeska Investment Group L.P. now owns 555,439 shares of the financial services provider’s stock worth $30,383,000 after acquiring an additional 19,988 shares in the last quarter. 80.97% of the stock is owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

About Walker & Dunlop (Get Free Report)

Walker & Dunlop, Inc (NYSE: WD) is a commercial real estate finance and advisory company that provides capital and transaction services to property owners, investors, developers and other real estate participants. The company serves clients across major commercial property sectors, including multifamily, office, retail, industrial, hospitality and healthcare.

Its services include commercial real estate lending, debt and equity financing, investment sales, property sales, loan servicing, valuation and advisory services.

Further Reading Five stocks we like better than Walker & Dunlop 5 Oversold Corners of the Market That Could Bounce If Breadth Finally Improves 3 Small-Cap Stocks With Catalysts That Could Put Them in the Spotlight Follow the Money: 5 AI Stocks Buying Back Shares by the Billions First Citizens BancShares vs MP Materials: A Tale of 2 Regulation Bets Receive News & Ratings for Walker & Dunlop Daily - Enter your email address below to receive a concise daily summary of the latest news and analysts' ratings for Walker & Dunlop and related companies with MarketBeat.com's FREE daily email newsletter.

Key Takeaways Reddit shares are down 35.7% YTD as weaker search referrals and digital ad competition pressure the stock. Reddit's daily active uniques rose 18% in Q2, while weekly active uniques climbed 24% year over year. Reddit Max usage rose more than 60% from Q1, while revenues from Max campaigns increased more than 150%. Reddit (RDDT - Free Report) shares have plunged 35.7% in the year-to-date period, underperforming the broader Zacks Computer & Technology sector’s 24.7% increase. The Zacks Internet - Software industry has also increased 10% in the same time frame.

The company’s shares have also underperformed its peers, which include Pinterest (PINS - Free Report) , Meta Platforms (META - Free Report) and Snap (SNAP - Free Report) . These companies are expanding their footprint in the digital advertising market. Shares of Meta Platforms have gained 10.3%, while Pinterest and Snap have lost 25.6% and 30.9%, respectively, in the year-to-date period.

The dip can be explained by irregular and declining search referral traffic, especially toward the end of the second quarter of 2026, causing a slight decrease in the number of daily active users and increasing volatility. The lack of insight into external search trends still poses a problem. Difficult macroeconomic uncertainties and the intense competition in the digital advertising market remain concerns.

RDDT Stock Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Despite these headwinds, Reddit’s expanding advertising portfolio, strong user engagement, including rising daily and weekly active users, gains in Average Revenue Per Unique (ARPU) and the expansion of advertiser tools such as Dynamic Product Ads, Reddit Pixel and CAPI have been key catalysts. These factors are helping Reddit to fend off its competitors like Pinterest, Snap and Meta Platforms.

RDDT Benefits From Expanding PortfolioReddit’s expanding portfolio has been a key catalyst in driving the company’s user engagement. In the second quarter of 2026, Reddit reported 130.3 million daily active uniques, up 18% year over year, and 514.6 million weekly active uniques, up 24% year over year.

RDDT is benefiting from successful product innovation and user engagement strategies. The company’s focus on improving the experience for new users, particularly through updated feed models and easier posting mechanisms, has led to a 50% year-over-year increase in new app user retention in the second quarter of 2026. Features like video in comments and interactive games have expanded engagement opportunities. At the same time, efforts to convert web users to app users have resulted in higher retention and more valuable user cohorts.

The company’s innovation in its ad stack has been a major growth driver. The launch and rapid adoption of Reddit Max, an AI-driven suite for ad automation and optimization, has delivered significant results. Advertiser usage of Max grew more than 60% from the first quarter, and revenues from Max campaigns increased by more than 150%. Features like tailored creatives and dynamic product ads are helping brands achieve better outcomes, such as Lenovo’s 40% higher purchase value with Max campaigns compared to standard campaigns.

Further expanding its portfolio, in September 2026, Reddit made its AI-powered Max campaigns available to all advertisers following a beta launch earlier this year. Max campaigns automate targeting, creative selection, placements, and budget allocation while allowing advertisers to retain strategic control. Reddit said early tests delivered 17% lower cost per acquisition and more than 27% higher conversions versus standard campaigns. The company also added Advertising API support, integration with Smartly and new asset groups, enabling advertisers to manage multiple creative sets within a single campaign and assess performance separately.

RDDT Benefits From Expanding Global FootprintReddit is benefiting from the rapid expansion of its global user and advertiser footprint, which is strengthening its competitive position.

In the second quarter of 2026, Reddit’s international revenues surged 84% year over year to $166.8 million, outpacing 56% growth in U.S. revenues. International daily active uniques (DAUq) increased 28% to 77.1 million, while international weekly active uniques (WAUq) jumped 35% to 317.4 million. The expanding international audience strengthens Reddit’s ability to attract global advertisers.

Improving monetization of this expanding overseas audience is another key catalyst. International average revenue per unique increased 31% year over year to $2.26 from $1.73. Meanwhile, global ARPU rose 36% to $6.18 from $4.53, supported by higher advertising pricing and impressions.

Earnings Estimates for Reddit Show Upward TrendRDDT’s expanding portfolio and rising user engagement are expected to drive the company’s top-line growth.

For the third quarter of 2026, management expects revenues between $860 million and $870 million, representing 47% to 49% year-over-year growth. The midpoint implies about 48% year-over-year growth. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter revenues is pegged at $886.35 million, indicating year-over-year growth of 51.54%.

For the third quarter, the consensus mark for earnings is pegged at $1.30 per share, which has increased 2.25% over the past 30 days. This implies year-over-year growth of 62.50%.

RDDT Stock Is OvervaluedReddit stock is currently trading at a premium, as suggested by the Value Score of D.

In terms of the forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio, RDDT is trading at 6.70X, higher than the broader Zacks Computer & Technology sector’s 6.18X.

RDDT Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

ConclusionReddit’s prospects benefit from an expanding portfolio and rising user engagement. These factors justify the company’s premium valuation.

RDDT stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and has a Growth Score of A, a favorable combination that offers a strong investment opportunity, per the Zacks proprietary methodology. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Hyperliquid is one of the buzziest blockchains in crypto. Known for its perpetual futures trading platform, it has also achieved a rare feat: building a digital asset treasury, or DAT, that has delivered positive returns for its shareholders. DATs are corporate vehicles designed to acquire and hoard a specific cryptocurrency—Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin behemoth Strategy is the most famous example—but in the past year, their share prices have slumped badly, and some DATs have flamed out altogether. The exception is the DAT called Hyperliquid Strategies, ticker symbol PURR, whose shares have climbed 251% since the start of the year. 

Since Hyperliquid Strategies launched 10 months ago—less than two years after the Hyperliquid blockchain went live—its market capitalization has climbed past $3 billion. The DAT now holds more than 35 million HYPE tokens, the blockchain’s native token, worth roughly $3.3 billion. This twin achievement of expanding its treasury and posting outsize shareholder returns puts the Hyperliquid DAT in stark contrast to its peers. As the chart below shows, the year-to-date returns of the leading DATs dedicated to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana have been dismal:

So why has Hyperliquid’s DAT flourished while the others have stumbled? Unlike other DATs, Hyperliquid Strategies does more than accumulate tokens and wait for their value to rise. The company has built an operating model that runs like an active business rather than a passive vault. By earning revenue from its holdings, the company can add to its HYPE reserves, increasing the amount of cryptocurrency tied to each share of stock over time. Whether by design or circumstance, Hyperliquid Strategies may have finally cracked the code on how to make DATs viable. 

The remarkable rise of Hyperliquid In the short time since the Hyperliquid blockchain launched in 2023, its HYPE token has vaulted into the top 10 most valuable cryptocurrencies. A big reason is that, unlike many other crypto projects that seek to build value with hype or vague future promises, Singapore-based Hyperliquid—founded by Harvard grad and physics whiz Jeff Yan—offers a valuable real-world service.

Its decentralized platform offers 24/7 derivatives trading at rapid speed, and is based around perpetual futures, a novel type of option that doesn’t expire. Following its launch, Hyperliquid initially drew crypto speculators, but soon after attracted a new group of customers: traders who use Hyperliquid to trade tokenized versions of oil, gold, and other commodities. 

This new class of traders has carried out huge numbers of transactions on Hyperliquid, which charges small fees in the form of the HYPE token. Hyperliquid uses a portion of those fees to pay the so-called validators who operate the blockchain, but most of the HYPE it collects is “burned”—diminishing the overall supply and increasing the value of the token. All of this has led the price of HYPE to surge more than 2,200%, according to data analytics platform CoinGecko.

Even as Hyperliquid thrived, however, it faced an obstacle to further growth: It was not (and still is not) legally available in the United States, leaving many American investors without an easy way to gain exposure to the platform. Meanwhile, many investors of all sorts who are unfamiliar with crypto find buying HYPE tokens can be cumbersome, typically requiring them to create a crypto wallet and connect it to a decentralized exchange.

Spotting this gap in the market, David Schamis, a founding partner at private equity firm Atlas Merchant Capital and former Barclays executive, launched Hyperliquid Strategies. The publicly traded company was created to stockpile HYPE, allowing traditional investors to buy into the ecosystem through equity shares. It was a new DAT, in other words.

In July 2025, Atlas Merchant Capital and venture firm Paradigm announced an $888 million capital raise for the DAT, and Schamis became its CEO. By December, Hyperliquid Strategies was trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker “PURR.” Buying shares of PURR—named after a cat-themed meme token that was the first to be launched on Hyperliquid’s blockchain—became the only easy path for American investors to gain exposure to HYPE until last May, when asset managers started rolling out Hyperliquid exchange-traded funds.

“That timing explains much of the success Hyperliquid Strategies has experienced since Q4 of last year, accumulating billions of dollars in treasury assets,” Eliezer Ndinga, global head of research at crypto asset manager 21shares, told Fortune. “Given … the success of the Hyperliquid ecosystem, they were well positioned to ride that wave.”

‘Adding some alpha’ Unlike its DAT predecessors, Hyperliquid Strategies did not simply sit on its HYPE stash and wait for the token to rise. That has been the model employed by Strategy and numerous copycat DATs, which have counted on steadily rising asset prices to issue new shares that pay for their operating costs. The flaw in that approach became apparent this year, however, as slumping crypto prices saw the market capitalizations of DATs fall below the value of the crypto assets they held—triggering a potentially existential spiral.

In the case of Hyperliquid Strategies, its New York–based team of four—CEO Schamis, CFO Brett Beldner, COO Jeroen Nieuwkoop, and director of corporate affairs Rob Diamond—drew on their experience in traditional finance to structure an operating model around the company’s token reserve.

Hyperliquid Strategies operates its own network validator, a specialized computer system that helps process transactions and secure the Hyperliquid blockchain. In return, it earns ongoing fees, turning its HYPE holdings into a source of operating revenue rather than a passive reserve.

In addition to validator fees, the company stakes its 35 million HYPE tokens in the network, earning ongoing token rewards. Similar to interest earned on a deposit, those rewards increase the company’s HYPE holdings over time, adding to the amount of cryptocurrency backing each share.

“For the DATs that can do that well, they actually have the ability to outperform the market over the long term because they’re taking the underlying holding and adding some alpha on top of that,” said Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at asset manager Bitwise. 

The model also depends on investors valuing Hyperliquid Strategies’ stock at more than the HYPE and cash behind each share. When PURR trades above that underlying value, its multiple to net asset value, or mNAV, is above one. That premium gives the company an additional way to grow its HYPE holdings.

“When the mNAV is above one, [the company] can issue more shares on the open market to raise cash and then buy more HYPE, and that becomes this … self-fulfilling loop,” Rasmussen told Fortune.

An analyst at crypto research firm Artemis earlier this year published a detailed breakdown of how Hyperliquid Strategies has so far been able to thread this needle.

Avoiding the DAT trap According to Ndinga, Hyperliquid’s most notable contribution was showing investors that cryptocurrency could serve a purpose beyond price speculation by expanding access to global financial markets in response to a real necessity. 

“Crypto has had a marketing problem for a while … [People assume] cryptocurrencies are trying to be like gold or the dollar,” Ndinga said. “But not all cryptocurrencies are currencies. You have crypto equities [and] crypto commodities … Hyperliquid has made the industry more tangible by showing what blockchain technology can do.”

Previous DATs strayed from this approach. Strategy initially gave traditional investors a way to gain Bitcoin exposure before spot ETFs were available. Over time, however, it built its model around passive accumulation and a “hold on for dear life” philosophy. It expanded its Bitcoin reserve through financing such as convertible notes and preferred stock, leaving its returns heavily dependent on Bitcoin’s price appreciation rather than income generated from the holdings.

As share prices dropped below so-called NAV, or net asset value, Strategy and other DATs could no longer issue stock without diluting existing shareholders. With less access to new capital, some also struggled to cover operating costs. Many ended up dying out. 

When Fortune asked Hyperliquid Strategies whether it would go down a similar path in the case of a market downturn, Schamis’s answer was concise: “We’re not religious zealots,” he said in an interview.

“Our primary responsibility is to our shareholders … and if the circumstances ever arose where it was beneficial to our shareholders to be selling our tokens … we certainly would,” Schamis added.

For practical purposes, as Schamis explained on an earnings call, this means Hyperliquid Strategies only issues new shares when its mNAV is 1.1 or higher, and buys back shares when it falls below that.

A cash cushion of roughly $292 million also gives the company a financial buffer during a severe downturn, reducing the likelihood that it will have to dump its HYPE holdings or make desperate trades. 

A narrow monopoly Hyperliquid Strategies is now entering a new chapter as the market structure around it matures. 

That shift was on full display in late August, when Trump said at a White House crypto and technology summit that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission was working to create a legal path for Hyperliquid to operate in the United States.

At the time, Schamis was in Wyoming, attending Anthony Scaramucci’s SALT Conference. After finishing a panel presentation on Hyperliquid, he stepped offstage, checked his phone, and saw PURR shares had suddenly jumped 30%.

“For about 30 seconds, I was incredibly impressed with myself, thinking my panel speech had moved the market,” Schamis recalled with a laugh. “Then I opened the news and realized President Trump had just publicly commented on bringing Hyperliquid to the U.S. at that exact same minute.”

But that mainstream attention also signals stiffer competition ahead. As spot HYPE ETFs continue to roll out in the U.S. and perpetual futures access expands, PURR’s initial monopoly on institutional access will naturally narrow.

That said, not all investment vehicles are created equal, and, according to Rasmussen, Hyperliquid’s business strategy will continue to hold off competition, at least for now. 

“The DATs that perform the best over the long term are those that add some level of operational boost to the underlying holds,” he said. “Investors are willing to pay a premium above HYPE performance to have a company … putting their assets [to work] on their behalf in generating incremental returns.”

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has unveiled its first set of dedicated rules for the crypto market, dubbed Regulation CTX and Regulation CAM. The proposed regulations aim to establish a voluntary federal framework for exchanges dealing in Bitcoin and Ether. This move is part of the CFTC’s efforts to formalize oversight of crypto exchanges and spot markets, which have previously operated with limited regulatory guidance. The proposal remains in the early stages of federal review, and its full details have yet to be disclosed, marking a significant step towards regulatory clarity in the crypto sector.

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Key Takeaways The CFTC’s proposal appears to indicate a move towards regulatory clarity, which is consistent with increased confidence in crypto markets. Market pricing suggests that participants view this regulatory development as supportive of a possible increase in Bitcoin’s market value. The proposal is still under federal review, indicating that the CFTC is taking a proactive stance in the absence of comprehensive congressional legislation. What to Watch Observers will closely monitor the progress of the CFTC’s proposal through the federal review process, which could influence market confidence and pricing dynamics. Key developments to watch include any indications from the U.S. Congress on broader crypto legislation and potential responses from major crypto exchanges. Regulatory actions or announcements by the Federal Reserve could also impact market sentiment and pricing scenarios.

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Term Structure

Contract Odds Δ since publish Volume 24h December 31 1% — — View market → December 31 1.4% — — View market → December 31 2.1% — — View market → December 31 3.1% — — View market → December 31 8.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 35.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 3.6% — — View market → January 1 2027 0.9% — — View market → January 1 2027 1.4% — — View market → January 1 2027 1.6% — — View market → January 1 2027 2.6% — — View market → January 1 2027 4.8% — — View market → January 1 2027 17.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 7.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 2.4% — — View market → January 1 2027 0.7% — — View market → January 1 2027 0.7% — — View market → January 1 2027 5.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 3% — — View market → January 1 2027 1.7% — — View market → January 1 2027 1.2% — — View market → January 1 2027 0.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 0.7% — — View market → January 1 2027 0.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 0.2% — — View market → January 1 2027 55.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 26.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 16.5% — — View market →

Bitcoin has entered October with a stronger performance than its typical seasonal pattern, raising questions about potential market movements as leverage accumulates near important price ranges.

October Defies Expectation as Bitcoin Posts Early GainsCryptoQuant analyst Andrew Kamsky reported that Bitcoin’s first three days of October are historically the month’s weakest, with an average decline of 0.66%. In contrast, this year’s early October performance has exceeded expectations so far.

Bitcoin ended September at $83,574 and closed October 3 at $84,743, representing a 1.4% increase. Between the October 1 and October 3 closes, Bitcoin fell just 0.14%, beating the historical average drop for this period.

As of October 4, CryptoQuant estimated Bitcoin’s price at $85,132, maintaining a gain of 1.86% since the end of September.

September’s results also ran counter to usual patterns. Instead of the typical average 4.02% decline, Bitcoin gained 6.39% in September. Kamsky stated that this resilience has continued into the early days of October.

Despite the historical trend of early October weakness, Bitcoin closed higher in both September and the initial days of October, demonstrating resilience.

Key Liquidation Levels and Volatility PotentialAlthough the start of October has been calm, derivatives market data suggests that volatility may increase quickly if Bitcoin moves outside specific price ranges. Leading analytics firms CoinGlass and Glassnode have highlighted concentrated liquidity and potential for liquidations on both the upside and downside.

CoinGlass pointed to substantial liquidation levels at $87,600 above the current price and at $83,400 below, suggesting a tight trading band with significant potential for both upward and downward moves.

Glassnode’s research indicates the largest concentration of liquidation risk is centered around $90,000, but smaller clusters exist at $83,000 and near $75,000. This creates a relatively narrow trading zone where derivatives traders face meaningful exposure in both directions.

On October 5, Bitcoin traded around $86,000. Analysts warned that a break below $83,400 could expose the market to thinner liquidity, while a move upwards through $87,600 toward $90,000 could trigger a wave of short liquidations, potentially accelerating price action.

Price LevelLiquidation RiskPossible Impact$83,000–$83,400Downside clusterPotential for increased selling$87,600–$90,000Upside clusterPotential for short squeeze$75,000Lower level clusterFurther downside riskThese liquidity zones reflect the growing leverage in the market as traders position around key support and resistance levels.

Analysis from both firms suggests the next decisive move could be accompanied by a spike in volatility, as traders on both sides risk forced liquidations.

Long-Term Valuation and Market Cycle ContextGlassnode lead analyst AntiFragile noted Bitcoin’s price currently sits about 13% below its long-term average valuation, known as the Mean MVRV Price. This metric multiplies Bitcoin’s Realized Price by its long-term average Market Value to Realized Value ratio to estimate fair value based on on-chain investor behavior.

Mini dictionary: Mean MVRV Price, a valuation metric indicating whether Bitcoin is trading above or below its typical historical relationship between market value and realized value, offering insight into potential overvaluation or undervaluation.

According to AntiFragile, in previous market cycles, Bitcoin tended to see its strongest gains after closing above this level, and cycle tops historically followed more than a year later. However, there is no guarantee that historical cycles will repeat.

The combination of a strong start to October and heavy derivatives positioning implies that Bitcoin’s next move could be sharp, depending on whether it maintains upward momentum or falls through an important support area.

While past cycles offer context, current leverage and liquidity levels may create unique volatility risks as October progresses.

As traders and investors weigh the situation, they face a crucial question: whether Bitcoin can sustain its early gains and reclaim higher long-term valuation, or whether a shift in liquidation zones will invite fresh selling pressure.

Bitcoin’s large holders are back in the green. Small wallets, meanwhile, held up through the June low better than they did during the 2022 bear market.

A drawdown that didn’t break anyone Bitcoin’s June 2026 low landed somewhere between $58,500 and $70,000, depending on the measure used. At that point, roughly 51.4% to 55% of the circulating supply was still in profit.

At the trough, around 10.2 million BTC were underwater before prices recovered.

The standout cohort was wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC. These mid-to-large holders kept unrealized profits through the June drawdown. They then accumulated significantly in the months that followed.

Retail-sized wallets also avoided the deeper underwater positions that defined earlier downturns. Small holders did feel unrealized loss pressure. They simply did not capitulate in large numbers.

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The realized price line held Bitcoin’s price did not close below its realized price during the 2026 drawdown, a first in the tracked history of its bear markets.

Realized price works like a giant average receipt. It values each coin at the price it last moved on-chain, then averages the result across the whole supply. If market price falls below it, the typical holder is sitting on a loss.

VanEck’s mid-2026 ChainCheck report noted a transition from early capitulation losses into an accumulation phase among larger players, with coins migrating from weak hands to strong hands.

Profitability returns as prices climb By September and October 2026, Bitcoin had pushed toward the $80,000 to $87,000 range. Profitability metrics improved across every cohort category as a result.

In September, single-day profit realizations hit approximately 25,700 BTC. Even so, small and mid-tier holders reportedly strengthened their positions through the period rather than heading for the exits en masse.

Why 2022 looks so different The 2022 bear market pushed holders much deeper underwater, and retail wallets were hit especially hard. In 2026, small wallets stayed profitable at the June low, large entities recovered quickly, and the realized price floor held.

What this means for investors Large holders appeared less inclined to distribute their coins during the downturn. The accumulation by 100 to 1,000 BTC wallets deserves particular attention, as this cohort continued buying after June, suggesting conviction rather than opportunistic flipping.

The sharp acceleration in profit-taking, highlighted by that roughly 25,700 BTC day in September, could signal caution ahead. Heavy short-term profit realization can trigger corrections, even in an otherwise healthy market.

Market participants will want to watch profit realization volumes, whale accumulation trends, and the distance between market price and realized price as key signals going forward.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

In This Article What Does the Partnership Actually Mean for XRP Ripple SettlementWhat the Seoul Participants’ Disclosed Activity ShowsWhat Would Confirm Bank-Driven XRP Ripple Demand? XRP Ripple is trading at $1.52 on October 5, as four Korean financial institutions appeared alongside Ripple at XRP Seoul. The event put institutional adoption in the spotlight, but a stage appearance and a Ripple relationship do not prove a bank is buying or settling payments in XRP.

Reports named Woori Bank, Kbank and Kyobo Securities, while leaving the fourth participant uncertain between Jeonbuk Bank and Kakao Bank. Ripple also introduced XRP Asia as a regional initiative to promote the XRP Ledger.

The distinction matters for XRP holders because using Ripple’s products does not necessarily create demand for the token. A Ripple Payments partnership with Jeonbuk Bank, for example, signals use of Ripple’s payment infrastructure, not automatically XRP settlement.

Today in Seoul, at $XRP Seoul with Ripple as title sponsor:

Kbank. Kyobo Securities. Woori Bank. JB Bank.

Four Korean financial firms on one stage, talking cross-border payments and tokenized deposits.

→ JB Bank already settles cross-border payments through Ripple Payments.… pic.twitter.com/XMxswi0tbD

— DexDad (@DexDadHQ) October 3, 2026

What Does the Partnership Actually Mean for XRP Ripple Settlement Ripple payment software can help a bank communicate who should be paid, how much they should receive, and in which currency. That arrangement can operate using conventional money such as dollars, won, or yen, without routing the payment through XRP.

A different model uses XRP as a bridge asset: value is converted from the sending currency into XRP, transferred through the XRP Ledger, then converted into the recipient’s currency. In that setup, XRP is part of the settlement path. Whether that creates meaningful token demand depends on transaction activity and other details, not just a bank’s relationship with Ripple.

According to reports, Ripple Payments may settle using local currencies, Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin, or XRP. That is why a claim that a bank uses Ripple Payments does not identify which asset it uses.

Similarly, a custodian holding XRP for clients is safeguarding the token, not necessarily using it to settle payments; growth in Ripple’s stablecoin ecosystem also does not, by itself, establish greater demand for XRP.

What the Seoul Participants’ Disclosed Activity Shows The 24/7 Wall St. report noted that Kbank launched a Ripple remittance pilot in April 2026 for the UAE and Thailand, but did not identify XRP as the settlement asset or specify payment volumes.

Jeonbuk Bank uses Ripple Payments for cross-border settlements, but it’s unclear if it was the fourth participant in the Seoul event. Kyobo Life is working with Ripple to settle tokenized government bonds, while Woori Bank collaborates with BDACS, a custodian managing XRP for institutions; neither confirms XRP use in transactions.

These activities involve different aspects of Ripple’s technology and do not provide evidence of XRP’s use as a settlement asset. The disclosures did not confirm any specific XRP settlement agreements or volumes, despite Ripple President Monica Long’s comments on future growth for the XRP Ledger.

EXCLUSIVE: Earn $50 With EdgeX and Enter $300K Prize Draw

What Would Confirm Bank-Driven XRP Ripple Demand? Listen to what the President of Ripple just said, because she said it calmly and most people will scroll straight past it.

Pools of XRP, loaned into the pool, used as collateral, to fund payments for Ripple's customers.

Her words: payments credit meets the XRP Ledger.

Here is… pic.twitter.com/rAOwzrzi0G

— Jacob Marquez (@JacobMarquez__) October 3, 2026

The event signals public institutional exposure to Ripple-related products, but the XRP Seoul event page cautions that participation alone does not establish a partnership or affiliation. That caveat is particularly relevant to Woori Bank’s BDACS custody connection: the report describes XRP being held for institutional clients, not a Ripple contract or payment route involving the bank.

The report also notes that publicly identified XRP users have largely been payment companies rather than banks, citing Japan’s SBI Remit and its transfers to the Philippines since 2021. That example shows how XRP can be used in payments, but it does not establish that the Korean institutions have adopted the same model.

The clearest evidence would be a formal agreement that explicitly names XRP as the settlement asset and specifies transaction volumes. Payment or wallet data showing actual XRP routing would further strengthen the case.

Until then, Ripple’s institutional footprint is a meaningful development for its business and ecosystem, but it is not a measured XRP-demand catalyst; if the partnerships rely on software, custody, or stablecoins instead, direct demand for XRP remains unconfirmed.

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Ethereum price reached $2,707 on Monday, rising 0.52% over 24 hours while holding above $2,700. The move keeps a near-term advance toward $3,000 in focus for the week.

The wider cryptocurrency market gained 0.68% during the same period, lifting its capitalization to $2.93 trillion. 

Bitcoin price remained above $85,000, and XRP was trading above $1.50 as the major cryptocurrencies continued their gains. The latest advance follows several weeks of gains across these assets since the middle of September.

Ethereum reportedly recorded its first weekly close above $2,700 in nine months, adding to the positive outlook. 

Bitmine Buys 15,112 ETH as Ethereum Holdings Top 6 Million The Ethereum treasury firm Bitmine acquired 15,112 ETH last week, lifting its holdings to 6,016,414 tokens. Those holdings represent approximately 4.9% of Ethereum’s total supply, bringing the company closer to its 5% ownership target.

🚨BITMINE JUST BOUGHT ANOTHER 15,112 ETH!

Bitmine added 15,112 ethereum:native over the past week, about $41 million at the $2,726 price in the release.

Holdings are now 6,016,414 ethereum:native, 4.9% of supply, and the company says it is 99% of the way to its 5% target.

Total crypto, cash and stakes are $17.4 billion.

— Crypto Banter (@crypto_banter) October 5, 2026

The weekly addition was worth roughly $41 million, based on the release’s quoted Ethereum price of $2,726. Bitmine’s cryptocurrency holdings, cash, securities and investment stakes reached a combined $17.4 billion, according to the company’s latest update.

Analyst Predicts Ethereum Above $3,000 After Strong Weekly Close Crypto analyst Ted Pillows said Ethereum recorded its highest weekly close in more than eight months. He identified $2,800 as the key threshold for a sustained upward move.

$ETH closed its highest weekly candle in 8+ months.

Now, Ethereum needs a weekly close above $2,800 with strong spot demand and it’ll rally towards $3,400-$3,500. https://t.co/ODGEN0lLag

— Ted (@TedPillows) October 5, 2026

The analyst said strong spot demand and a weekly close above that level could support gains toward $3,400–$3,500. His analysis also marked initial support near $2,550 and another around $2,200. The chart showed $1,965 as another support level if downward pressure intensifies.

Ethereum Open Interest Climbs to $34.10 Billion The Ethereum derivatives market recorded higher activity, with trading volume increasing 15.17% to $29.02 billion. Open interest rose 1.14% to $34.10 billion, indicating an increase in the value of outstanding contracts.

Source: Coinglass data The volume of options increased by 33.58% to $1.15 billion, the highest increase of the metrics reported. Options open interest rose 1.62% to $6.25 billion, indicating increased options contract values outstanding.

Ethereum Price Analysis The ETH price rallied about 13% from its September price, which was nearly $2,400, and consolidated at around $2,718 on October 5.

The Relative Strength Index registered 57. This positioning suggests a mild bullish tilt.

The MACD line stood at 7.45, above the signal line at 4.71, with a positive histogram reading of 2.73.

A sustained four-hour close above $2,800 could open the way toward the marked resistance level at $2,900. Further gains could bring $3,000 into focus, representing approximately 10.4% upside from the displayed price. 

Source: TradingView Rejection near $2,800 could further extend consolidation, with $2,600 being a key support to watch. Failure of that support would compromise the recovery and might lead to a reversion of the previous trading range from $2,400.

DOGE has recovered from early September lows but remains below $0.10 as one U.S. fund approaches liquidation. A new application testnet supplies an adoption story, though its test activity is not yet mainnet demand. October’s best case requires spot buyers to carry the token beyond its recent high; the worst case revisits the September floor.

Summary

DOGE traded near $0.0955 on October 5, with around 156.2 billion coins circulating. The network’s 10,000 DOGE block reward implies approximately 14.4 million newly mined DOGE per target day. Bitwise expects to convert its fund’s DOGE holdings to cash October 14 and distribute proceeds around October 22. A $0.11 to $0.12 upside range needs roughly 15% to 26% from a $0.0955 reference price. A $0.075 to $0.085 downside range implies a decline of roughly 11% to 21% from that reference. Dogecoin has entered October near $0.0955 after failing to retain a late September move through $0.10. The CoinGecko market snapshot showed about $14.9 billion in circulating value and roughly 156.2 billion DOGE on October 5. The token traded as low as around $0.0817 early in September before reaching a recent high near $0.1056, according to dated market coverage. Its October path is a test of whether buyers can absorb a pullback while a small U.S. fund completes an orderly closure.

The dates are unusually concrete. Bitwise’s SEC notice says the fund plans to convert its dogecoin to cash October 14 and distribute proceeds around October 22. The DogeOS project opened a public testnet at the end of September. Neither a fund closure nor a testnet launch supplies a reliable month end price on its own, and they affect different markets.

JUST IN: DogeOS launches public testnet for its Dogecoin ZK rollup

The network brings EVM smart contracts to Dogecoin, with $DOGE used for gas fees as the project aims to expand utility across the ecosystem. pic.twitter.com/KYM3RHLgP6

— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) October 1, 2026 The $0.10 line divides a recovery from another failed rally In a September 23 price account, DOGE had regained $0.10 after a 25% weekly advance and traders watched $0.1056 as a nearby high. Earlier September trading data placed the coin near $0.0901 on September 8 and its September 2 low around $0.0817. The October 5 quote lies between those reference points, above the early month low and beneath the later breakout.

At $0.0955, $0.10 is a 4.7% gain. $0.1056 requires a gain of about 10.6%. The first number is a round price marker traders can see; the second was a recent reported high. Neither is a physical barrier. What matters to the upside scenario is whether DOGE holds above them on daily closes with meaningful spot participation, not whether a short lived trade touches them.

The middle case can include violent intraday moves. A coin may cross $0.10 after a bitcoin rally, return below it during an inflation release and still close the month near $0.095. The feature uses October 31 closing ranges so that a fleeting high is not retroactively counted as a successful forecast. Venue and timestamp should be recorded for the final assessment.

CoinGecko showed roughly $502 million in 24 hour trading volume in one October 5 capture and approximately $2.14 billion in perpetual futures open interest. Both are changing snapshots. Gross turnover includes the buyer and seller of each trade; it is not $502 million of net purchases. Open interest measures contracts that remain open, with a long and short side to each. Their relationship is useful for identifying how a move is financed, but neither says who will hold DOGE through the month.

Fixed issuance creates a hurdle, but no daily price target The Dogecoin documentation explains that issuance has no end date but has a finite limit per block and year. A network explainer states the current block reward is 10,000 DOGE and targets one block each minute. Multiplying 10,000 by 60 minutes and 24 hours yields approximately 14.4 million new DOGE per day at the target pace. Thirty days would imply about 432 million DOGE; 31 days about 446.4 million. Actual block timing can differ.

At the $0.0955 reference, a target day’s 14.4 million DOGE has a quoted value near $1.38 million. The 31 day arithmetic gives around $42.6 million of newly issued coins at that unchanged price. These are valuations of issuance, not documented miner sales. Miners can sell, retain, hedge or use the reward, and DOGE price can change during the month. A claim that investors must buy exactly $42.6 million to stop the token falling would invent a one to one flow relationship.

The same arithmetic puts annual target issuance near 5.256 billion DOGE, about 3.4% of the October 5 circulating estimate if that estimate were held constant. The percentage rate declines over time as the existing coin base grows under fixed issuance. It is a measurable supply feature, but it cannot explain an intraday 5% price move without evidence about market orders and depth.

One comparison clarifies scale. Dividing the $1.38 million daily issuance value by CoinGecko’s changing $502 million daily turnover gives roughly 0.27%. Turnover is gross trading and cannot be called new demand, but it shows that trading activity and the dollar value of a target day’s new mining rewards are different magnitudes. A sustained rally still needs buyers to absorb whatever miners and existing holders actually offer; the fixed reward does not predict how many coins either group sells.

The price endpoints make capitalization changes look much larger than the required order flow. At roughly 156.2 billion circulating coins, $0.12 implies around $18.74 billion in quoted circulating value and $0.075 around $11.72 billion. Their $7.02 billion difference is the 4.5 cent price gap multiplied by all outstanding coins. It is not $7.02 billion of cash that must move through exchanges to travel between the prices.

DogeOS has a testnet, not an October usage dividend DogeOS documentation describes an EVM compatible application layer with public testnet access. Its developer pages say the testnet is live while work toward mainnet continues. A late September account of the launch said DOGE is intended as the fee token for the application layer. That is a potential future use case for DOGE, but test tokens and developer deployments cannot be equated to October mainnet fee spending.

The testnet explorer lets readers inspect blocks and transactions. A rising counter there demonstrates testing activity under its rules. It does not disclose the number of production users willing to pay fees with economically valuable DOGE or the amount of native coin they will hold. One developer can produce many test transactions at little or no real economic cost. The project has not supplied an October mainnet activation date in the material reviewed.

The bullish interpretation has a legitimate mechanism. If working applications eventually require DOGE for fees or liquidity, sustained use could add a category of demand beyond payments and speculation. To turn that into an October price claim, a reporter would need evidence of a production launch, a bridge using real DOGE, economically meaningful activity and the number of coins committed. Announcing a testnet establishes none of those conditions for this month.

The bearish interpretation should not erase the technical work. Public tooling, a bridge test and working contracts are development milestones that may reduce execution uncertainty. They do not replace market demand now. A $0.11 October case therefore relies primarily on spot buying and a favorable market rather than counting testnet gas fees as revenue already paid in DOGE.

Bitwise’s liquidation is a dated event with a small known base Bitwise told the SEC on September 10 that it would close BWOW. The company’s filed release sets October 14 for converting the fund’s dogecoin to cash and approximately October 22 for distribution. An earlier crypto.news feature examined why access to listed fund shares had not translated into steady subscriptions. Its September 8 snapshot put BWOW net assets near $722,000 and holdings around 8.2 million DOGE.

At $0.0955, 8.2 million DOGE would be worth about $783,000 if the holding count had remained unchanged. The fund’s actual holdings can change before conversion and the sale price is not known, so $783,000 is only a scale check. Against 156.2 billion circulating DOGE, 8.2 million is roughly 0.0053% of the coin count. Against a $502 million daily trading volume snapshot, its illustrative value is about 0.16%. Neither ratio guarantees that a sale will have no short term price effect; execution venue, timing and order book depth matter.

Equally, the October 14 date is not evidence of a looming market wide liquidation. The fund is one vehicle. Existing shareholders can sell shares before the final trading date, or wait for cash proceeds under its procedures. A fund operator’s conversion of underlying DOGE and secondary trading in its shares are different transactions. Their footprints should not be conflated in a headline.

Other U.S. DOGE products remain, and a closure of BWOW does not ban investors from buying DOGE directly. The editorial distinction is demand, not access. A prior study counted 166 zero flow days among 199 trading days across three DOGE funds as of its dated sample. It showed weak fund subscription activity in that window, not proof that all DOGE holders lost interest or that prices cannot rally without ETFs.

JUST IN: Spot $DOGE ETFs record their strongest week ever

Spot Dogecoin ETF products attracted $2.89 million in net inflows this week, surpassing the previous weekly high of $2.59 million set in January 2026. pic.twitter.com/2RTj3J9R6w

— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) September 27, 2026 October fund flow evidence should come from issuer holdings or a complete, comparable series. A dollar decline in fund assets can be caused by DOGE’s own price falling even with unchanged holdings. A share count or coin holding change is more revealing for incremental fund demand than assets alone. The closure’s exact sale proceeds will be known only after the event and any subsequent reporting.

The upside case needs buyers beyond the fund channel An October closing range of $0.11 to $0.12 requires a durable move above both $0.10 and the September high near $0.1056. From $0.0955, $0.11 is 15.2% higher and $0.12 is 25.7% higher. A broad crypto advance, especially one in which investors take more risk beyond bitcoin, could make such a move possible. Verified spot volume and higher daily closes would provide more direct confirmation than a one day futures squeeze.

The bullish case can draw on recent behavior. DOGE gained roughly 25% in a week during September’s recovery and briefly moved through $0.10. Large, liquid meme tokens can move more quickly than bitcoin when risk appetite improves. That history shows capacity for a double digit move, not a forecast that the same percentage recurs in October. A buyer who entered near $0.1056 may sell into a rebound and create supply in precisely the area an upside case needs to clear.

A change in futures open interest would need careful reading. From CoinGecko’s $2.14 billion snapshot, an increase in dollar OI can result partly from DOGE itself rising. A perpetual long always has a short counterparty. Funding that becomes persistently expensive can make bullish exposure costly and potentially fragile. For a convincing rally, examine spot buys alongside coin denominated contracts and funding, rather than describe all OI growth as new long investment.

DogeOS can contribute sentiment or future demand expectations, while the Bitwise sale can be absorbed if its size remains near the prior holding snapshot. The upside thesis fails if DOGE repeatedly loses $0.10 after attempts to reclaim it, if spot volume contracts on bounces, or if the wider market sells off through October’s inflation and Fed dates. A close below $0.09 would undercut the suggested path toward $0.11 to $0.12 even if development continues.

The worst case revisits $0.0817 and could test lower The downside October closing range is $0.075 to $0.085. At $0.0955, $0.085 is 11.0% lower, and $0.075 is 21.5% lower. Its upper area includes the early September low near $0.0817; its lower edge allows for a break of that prior level. Neither is a guaranteed floor. A sustained loss of $0.09 followed by failure to defend $0.0817 would support this scenario.

A weaker bitcoin market, higher Treasury yields after inflation data, or continued contraction in DOGE spot demand could contribute. The Bitwise conversion date might add temporary supply, but the known prior fund holding was small relative to circulating DOGE. It cannot fairly be named the cause of a large market decline in advance. Proof would require observing the sale and broader market at the same time.

The fixed reward matters over months and years, but 14.4 million target DOGE per day is not a sudden October unlock. It occurs each day under existing rules. An abrupt drop needs an abrupt change in the willingness to buy or hold at prevailing prices, a market shock, concentrated selling or leverage pressure. Treating normal issuance as a surprise catalyst would confuse a continuous mechanism with a dated event.

An earlier summer drawdown documented DOGE below $0.09 after a steep monthly decline. That history argues against assuming $0.08 cannot break. It does not forecast a return to its June lows, because the October market has different holders, liquidity and macro conditions. The proposed $0.075 lower edge is a scenario for a failed September support test, not a claim that June must repeat.

The downside interpretation weakens if DOGE closes and holds above $0.1056 with demonstrable spot buying and a stronger wider market. A temporary wick to $0.0817 that reverses before month end would not meet a downside closing scenario. A closing price and the path to it are separate observations.

The middle case depends on the wider market An $0.085 to $0.11 month end band covers both an unsuccessful return through $0.10 and a limited recovery that stops before $0.11. The band is deliberately wide because DOGE has already moved from about $0.0817 to $0.1056 during the September window. It is not a confidence interval generated by a model.

The Federal Reserve meets October 27 and 28; September consumer inflation is due October 14 and PCE October 29. These dates may change the appetite for speculative exposure across crypto. A DOGE move that occurs alongside similar percentage moves in bitcoin and other large tokens should be read differently from a DOGE specific surge with no comparable market change. A fund liquidation and a testnet launch cannot explain every broad market session.

The middle case would be undermined by repeated closes above $0.11 or below $0.085 with corresponding volume. A short move through either price intraday need not invalidate a month end range. Traders can respond to scheduled information immediately and reverse once liquidity returns. The issue for an October prediction is which participants still hold coins on October 31.

CoinGecko’s roughly $14.9 billion market value at $0.0955 gives a final scale check. At $0.12 and constant circulating supply, it would be near $18.7 billion; at $0.075, around $11.7 billion. Those figures are snapshots of quoted value, not sums of money invested or withdrawn. The same logic applies to fund asset changes and futures notional.

What the evidence cannot settle today The Dogecoin reward schedule is confirmed by the network’s documentation. Bitwise’s liquidation dates are stated in its filing. DogeOS testnet is verifiable through its published tools. CoinGecko’s price and OI are dated, moving aggregates. The $0.11 to $0.12 and $0.075 to $0.085 ranges are this article’s conditional interpretations of market markers, not protocol or issuer forecasts.

The public information does not identify the next large DOGE buyer, quantify what portion of new mining rewards miners intend to sell, or prove that a testnet participant will spend real DOGE on mainnet. An ETF closure proves weak economics for one product at a stated size. It does not prove that a direct DOGE holder is about to sell. Those limits are necessary before assigning a causal story to a fast price move.

The first scheduled fund conversion is October 14, according to Bitwise’s SEC notice. Its planned cash distribution follows around October 22. DOGE trading through those dates, together with published fund holdings, can test whether the closure had a measurable footprint.

JUST IN: Dogecoin announces full corporate restructuring and rebrands as DogeCoin Financial Solutions LLC™, retiring the Shiba Inu logo for a navy blue emblem pic.twitter.com/DDBR1eEYam

— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) April 1, 2026 What to watch The $0.10 and $0.1056 levels: Check for sustained daily closes above both alongside cash market volume.

The $0.0817 September low: A sustained break below it would support the lower October scenario.

Bitwise’s October 14 conversion: Verify actual timing, holdings and sale information before attributing a broader price move to the fund.

Spot and perpetual markets: Compare dated spot volume, open interest in DOGE units and funding when price moves quickly.

DogeOS progress: Distinguish publicly visible testnet use from a production launch that requires economically valuable DOGE.

FAQ What is the Dogecoin price prediction for October 2026? The illustrative upside close is $0.11 to $0.12, the middle range is $0.085 to $0.11, and the downside is $0.075 to $0.085. Each requires the price and demand conditions described above; none has a numerical probability.

What was DOGE worth at the start of this analysis? The October 5 CoinGecko reference was approximately $0.0955. Percentage changes use that rounded quote and should be refreshed at publication if price changes significantly.

Can Dogecoin reach $0.12 in October? From $0.0955, $0.12 needs a rise of about 25.7%. Sustained closes through $0.10 and the recent $0.1056 high with spot participation would support that case.

Could Dogecoin fall below $0.08 again? Yes. A sustained loss of $0.09 and then the September low near $0.0817 would bring the $0.075 to $0.085 downside range into view. A past low is not guaranteed support.

How many new DOGE are mined each day? The 10,000 DOGE reward and one minute target imply roughly 14.4 million DOGE a day. Actual block timing can differ, and newly mined coins are not necessarily sold immediately.

When does Bitwise close its Dogecoin ETF? Bitwise scheduled conversion of BWOW’s DOGE holdings to cash for October 14 and distribution to remaining shareholders around October 22. The fund’s earlier holdings were small compared with circulating DOGE.

Is DogeOS live on Dogecoin mainnet? Its public testnet is live, according to DogeOS’s documentation. Test transactions do not establish fee demand using economically valuable DOGE on a production application layer.

Are the DOGE price scenarios financial advice? No. They are conditional October closing ranges tied to observable price, network and fund events. Each can be invalidated by later trading and disclosures. This is educational analysis, not investment advice.

Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Figures reflect regulatory filings and reporting available at the time of writing and change with each disclosure. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or asset. Always do your own research. Information is accurate as of October 5, 2026.

Cardano (ADA) traded near $0.273 on October 5, reaching an intraday high of $0.2734, while its 24-hour trading volume approached $1 billion. This puts Cardano above the $0.26 mark, a resistance level that had previously limited the cryptocurrency’s recovery in recent weeks.

New partnerships drive Cardano ecosystemThe rally comes after a series of positive developments for the Cardano ecosystem. The Cardano Foundation, the non-profit organization supporting Cardano’s global adoption and development, recently unveiled two new collaborative projects with Petrobras, the major Brazilian energy company. Both initiatives will use Cardano’s blockchain network to verify sustainability data for aviation fuel and renewable diesel, building on an existing relationship between the two entities.

In addition to institutional expansion, Cardano also secured new technical integrations. Fireblocks, a digital asset custody platform widely used by institutional investors, added support for Cardano Native Tokens. The network previously integrated x402 to enable automated payment solutions managed by artificial intelligence agents.

These updates have contributed to improved sentiment among investors and developers, fueling optimism about Cardano’s future prospects.

Mini dictionary: Fireblocks, a secure digital asset custody and transfer platform, allows institutions to safely manage and move cryptocurrencies and tokens across multiple networks.

Technical signals and futures marketsADA’s immediate technical outlook improved as the asset surpassed the $0.263 threshold. Market analysts have pointed to this level as a key pivot area for further gains.

Vishal Dixit from FXStreet observed that Cardano’s futures open interest climbed about 15% in the previous 24 hours. Simultaneously, positive funding rates implied that traders were broadly positioning for continued upside in ADA.

According to Dixit, if the breakout is sustained, ADA could target $0.30 as its next key resistance, with further momentum likely if buyers maintain control above the $0.275 area.

Other technical readings identify the critical continuation point at approximately $0.2679, while resistance stands near $0.275. A daily close above these areas may open the way for a move toward the $0.28–$0.30 zone, though a retracement below $0.258 would call the current rally into question.

Market tracker Coinpaper also highlighted $0.30 as the next significant liquidity level, should ADA successfully hold above the $0.25–$0.27 range.

LevelSupport/ResistanceSignificance$0.258SupportBreakout at risk if breached$0.263PivotKey breakout point$0.2679ContinuationCrucial for sustained rally$0.275ResistanceUpper boundary before $0.30$0.30Liquidity AreaMajor upside targetOn-chain data and network sentimentDespite the increase in ADA’s price and derivatives activity, Cardano’s decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes remain subdued. On October 3, Cardano DEX transactions dropped to roughly $5.72 million, indicating that the price rally has not been matched by heightened on-chain activity.

This divergence between rising prices and weaker DEX volume underscores the importance of futures positioning, with elevated open interest amplifying potential upside but also increasing the risk of rapid reversals if momentum fades.

Since June, Cardano’s network sentiment has gradually improved after an earlier governance setback, strengthening both developer engagement and broader ecosystem confidence despite mixed trading signals.

Key Takeaways Petrobras made a second oil discovery at the Morpho well in Brazil's Foz do Amazonas Basin.The deeper find expands Petrobras' understanding of petroleum systems and resource potential in the basin.Petrobras plans three more wells in FZA-M-59, with drilling expected to begin in early 2027. Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR - Free Report) has made a second oil discovery in the Morpho exploration well in Brazil’s Foz do Amazonas Basin, strengthening the exploration potential of the country’s Equatorial Margin. The discovery was made in block FZA-M-59, where Petrobras is the sole owner.

The Morpho well, also identified as 1-BRSA-1405-APS, is located in ultra-deep waters off Amapá state at a water depth of 2,886 meters. The latest oil-bearing interval was identified as drilling continued into deeper exploratory formations following the initial discovery announced in August 2026.

Deeper Drilling Expands Exploration InsightsThe latest discovery was confirmed through electrical logs, rock evidence and fluid samples collected during drilling. Petrobras said the additional find will help expand its understanding of the petroleum systems and resource potential of the Amazon River Mouth Sedimentary Basin.

The company is continuing to analyze the newly collected material through laboratory studies. The results will be integrated with the broader dataset obtained during the drilling program to support further evaluation of the identified formations. Petrobras also said analyses of the initial August discovery have confirmed the presence of good-quality, light oil.

The Morpho well is particularly significant because it represents the first major exploration well drilled in the most promising portion of Brazil’s Equatorial Margin in more than 15 years. The well is located about 175 kilometers off the coast of Amapá.

Three More Wells Planned in FZA-M-59The second discovery could raise expectations for Petrobras’ upcoming exploration campaign in the block. The company plans to drill three contingent wells in FZA-M-59, with operations expected to begin in early 2027.

Brazil’s environmental regulator, IBAMA, approved permits for the three wells in September. Petrobras plans to use the Constellation-operated Amaralina Star drillship for the campaign, although the rig will need to complete hull cleaning after finishing its current work off Brazil’s southeast coast.

The planned wells include the Morpho extension, located slightly northeast of the initial discovery, along with the Crotalus prospect in the northwest portion of the block and the Manga prospect southwest of the original Morpho well.

Petrobras Targets Equatorial Margin GrowthThe FZA-M-59 campaign forms part of Petrobras’ broader effort to explore Brazil’s Equatorial Margin, considered one of the country’s major remaining offshore oil and gas frontiers. Under its 2026-2030 strategic investment plan, Petrobras has allocated $2.5 billion for 15 exploration wells in the region. The company holds interests in 32 Equatorial Margin blocks spanning several offshore basins.

The region is viewed as having geological similarities to prolific petroleum areas off Guyana, Suriname and the west coast of Africa. Brazil’s Mines and Energy Ministry estimates that the country’s portion of the Equatorial Margin could contain as much as 6.2 billion barrels of recoverable reserves.

New Discovery Supports Long-Term Exploration StrategyThe second Morpho discovery provides Petrobras with additional geological information as it assesses the broader resource potential of the Foz do Amazonas Basin. The company said exploration of block FZA-M-59 is consistent with its long-term strategy of replenishing oil and gas reserves through new frontiers while supporting Brazil’s energy needs.

With drilling activities at Morpho still underway and additional wells planned for 2027, the latest discovery adds momentum to Petrobras’ efforts to unlock the resource potential of Brazil’s Equatorial Margin.

PBR’s Zacks Rank & Key PicksHeadquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Petrobras is the largest integrated energy firm in Brazil and one of the largest in Latin America. Currently, PBR has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Investors interested in the energy sector may consider some top-ranked stocks like Drilling Tools International Corporation (DTI - Free Report) , Forum Energy Technologies, Inc. (FET - Free Report) and Montauk Renewables, Inc. (MNTK - Free Report) , each sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Drilling Tools International is a global oilfield services provider focused on supplying downhole tools used in horizontal and directional drilling. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DTI’s 2026 revenues indicates 1.6% year-over-year growth.

Forum Energy is a global oilfield products company, serving the subsea, drilling, completion, production and infrastructure sectors of the oil and natural gas industry. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FET’s 2026 earnings indicates 536.5% year-over-year growth.

Montauk Renewables is a fully integrated renewable energy company that specializes in the management, recovery and conversion of biogas into renewable energy. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MNTK’s 2026 earnings indicates 1100% year-over-year growth.

Applied Digital just hit a major capacity milestone at its flagship North Dakota campus, yet the stock is bleeding alongside its closest peers while the broader market climbs. Something in the AI infrastructure trade is breaking down, and it matters…

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A fresh capacity mark at Applied Digital (NASDAQ:APLD) is clashing with a pullback across AI data center operators, and the selling pressure is winning out. Applied Digital stock is at $24.31 in midday trading, down 4% despite new progress at the flagship North Dakota campus.

Shares of IREN Limited (NASDAQ:IREN) and Cipher Digital (NASDAQ:CIFR) stock are down 4% as well, rounding out a three-name slide among operators that have shifted toward high-performance computing hosting. Shared roots in crypto mining infrastructure and a common focus on leasing power-dense capacity to AI customers lead the market to trade Applied Digital, IREN and Cipher Digital shares as a group.

Meanwhile, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is up 0.5%, so the wider market remains steady. The Global X Data Center & Digital Infrastructure ETF (NASDAQ:DTCR) is up 0.1%, a small gain that keeps digital infrastructure as a whole in positive territory. That gap places the selling squarely in Applied Digital, IREN and Cipher Digital shares while the fund’s larger holdings stay steady.

Polaris Forge 1 Reaches Another Capacity Milestone In a press release, Applied Digital announced a milestone. The company reached Ready for Service on the second phase of Building 2 at its Polaris Forge 1 campus in Ellendale, North Dakota, bringing an additional 75 megawatts of critical information technology load online, according to Applied Digital Corporation. Ready for Service marks the point when a data hall is energized, commissioned and available for a tenant to start running its equipment, while critical information technology load measures the power reserved for the computing gear itself. The company’s Polaris Forge 1 campus is fully leased, so the new capacity has a tenant in place from the moment it goes live.

Applied Digital chairman and CEO Wes Cummins stated that securing power is only the starting point. Cummins added that the real work is designing, building, commissioning and operating the infrastructure that turns those megawatts into usable capacity for the company’s customers. Polaris Forge 1’s latest phase shows that process at work and supports the bull case that Applied Digital keeps converting contracted power into operating capacity on schedule.

The Global X DTCR fund holds a mix of established data center landlords, tower owners and chipmakers, a profile far steadier than that of faster-growing AI hosting operators such as Applied Digital, IREN and Cipher Digital. Those operators face higher growth expectations. They also carry heavy build-out spending (we covered seven non-chipmaker suppliers to the AI expansion, from power to cooling, in a free report here), so they tend to swing harder in both directions when sentiment toward AI infrastructure shifts. Such a split explains how the fund can edge higher while Applied Digital, IREN and Cipher Digital shares all slide.

What to Watch Next What matters for Applied Digital from here is whether contracted demand keeps pace with the capacity the company continues to deliver. A fully leased Polaris Forge 1 is a strong foundation, and additional contracts beyond that campus would show that the Applied Digital build-out is matched by paying customers. The clearest signal on that front will be new lease announcements from Applied Digital.

Operational progress at Applied Digital is real, but the shares remain tightly tied to a volatile peer group. Keeping your stake in Applied Digital moderate lets shareholders follow the Polaris Forge build-out while limiting the damage if the group selloff extends.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

David Moadel

David Moadel is financial writer specializing in stocks, ETFs, options, precious metals, and Bitcoin. David has written well over 1,000 articles for leading online publications, helping investors understand markets, income strategies, and risk.His work has appeared in The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, U.S. News & World Report, TipRanks, ValueWalk, Benzinga, Market Realist, TalkMarkets, Finmasters, 24/7 Wall St., and others.With a master’s degree in education, David has taught at the elementary, high school, and college levels. That teaching background shapes his writing style: clear, educational, and practical. David has also built a loyal social-media audience by providing trustworthy financial content on YouTube, X/Twitter, and StockTwits.

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Key Takeaways Equinor's production growth from Johan Castberg, Eirin, Symra and Bacalhau boosts its upstream exposure.EQNR's roughly $50-per-barrel breakeven after dividends provides room for cash generation if oil prices fall.Equinor is likely to benefit from Brent averaging around $90 per barrel in the second half of 2026. Brent crude prices remain elevated as Middle East supply disruptions and falling global inventories continue to tighten the oil market. With disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz restricting regional energy exports, the supply backdrop remains supportive of crude prices. Per Oilprice.com, Brent crude prices are trading above $100 per barrel, creating a favorable operating environment for upstream producers. Against this backdrop, Equinor ASA (EQNR - Free Report) , which operates mainly on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, stands to benefit as its expanding production base increases exposure to stronger crude realizations.

EQNR’s upstream portfolio is supported by production growth from assets such as Johan Castberg, Eirin, Symra and Bacalhau. Higher production volumes, combined with elevated Brent prices, are likely to strengthen cash generation and improve returns from the company’s exploration and production operations. Equinor has already demonstrated its ability to capture value from higher prices, with both E&P Norway and E&P International benefiting from a stronger production and pricing environment.

The favorable crude-price environment is expected to persist through the remainder of 2026, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration in its short-term energy outlook forecasting Brent to average around $90 per barrel in the second half of the year. EQNR’s low breakeven after a dividend of about $50 per barrel supports strong cash generation even if Brent eventually retreats from current elevated levels. Thus, a combination of firm near-term Brent crude prices, rising production and disciplined costs is likely to support further upside for EQNR’s upstream operations while strengthening resilience when oil prices normalize.

Elevated Brent Price Boosts SHEL & TTE’s Upstream OutlookTwo other energy majors that stand to benefit from elevated Brent crude prices are Shell plc (SHEL - Free Report) and TotalEnergies SE (TTE - Free Report) .

Shell has a large upstream portfolio spanning regions such as Brazil, the North Sea, Nigeria and the Gulf of America, and its second-quarter 2026 upstream adjusted earnings rose as higher realized prices provided an earnings lift. SHEL’s realized liquids price increased to $89 per barrel in the second quarter from $72 in the first quarter, highlighting the direct benefit of stronger crude pricing on its upstream business.

TotalEnergies has broad upstream exposure outside the United States, with operations across Africa, Europe, the Middle East, South America and Asia. Management noted that higher oil prices more than offset production losses tied to Middle East disruptions, while an $8-per-barrel increase in Brent was enough to offset the expected 2026 cash-flow impact from affected assets in Iraq, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. With Brent remaining elevated, TTE is well-positioned to generate stronger upstream cash flows from its geographically diversified portfolio, particularly from growth projects outside the Middle East.

EQNR’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesEquinor's shares have gained 67.7% over the past year compared with the industry’s 115.7% growth.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation standpoint, EQNR trades at a trailing 12-month enterprise-value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) of 2.2X. This is below the broader industry average of 5.94X.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EQNR's 2026 earnings has seen upward revisions over the past seven days.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

EQNR currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

TLDR TRX traded near $0.335 on October 5 after spending most of September between $0.325 and $0.345. TRON holds about $95.8 billion in stablecoins, while circulating TRX is worth about $31.8 billion. Canary’s TRXS fund had 2.03 million shares outstanding on October 2, the same as on September 15. A move to $0.38–$0.40 would need a 13% to 19% gain, and a drop to $0.29–$0.31 would mean a 7% to 13% fall. September CPI is due October 14, the Fed meets October 27–28, and PCE inflation data comes October 29. TRON’s TRX token traded near $0.335 on October 5. Daily closes spent much of September between about $0.325 and $0.345, which kept the price in a tight range.

Data from CoinGecko put the value of circulating TRX at roughly $31.8 billion. DeFiLlama showed about $95.8 billion in stablecoins on the TRON network.

Those two numbers measure different things. The stablecoin figure counts tokens issued on the chain, not money spent buying TRX.

TRON is a major network for USDT transfers. A second-quarter report put USDT transfer value at $2.1 trillion for that quarter.

Transfer totals count each time a dollar moves, not new money entering the chain. A dollar of USDT moved does not require a dollar of TRX to be bought.

Users can stake TRX to get network resources called Energy and Bandwidth, or they can burn tokens to pay fees. Some wallets now let users pay fees in USDT.

JUST IN: TRON averages 4.41M daily active accounts

The $TRX network has maintained an average of 4.41 million daily active accounts over the past 30 days. pic.twitter.com/uuwJxB3XtS

— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) October 4, 2026

ETF Shares Have Barely Moved The Canary Staked TRX ETF began trading under the ticker TRXS on September 9. The fund aims to track TRX and earn staking rewards.

Shares outstanding stood at 2.01 million at launch and 2.03 million on September 15. The count stayed at 2.03 million on every reported day through October 2.

Net assets were about $50.23 million on October 2, down slightly from $50.26 million on September 16. That equals about 0.158% of TRX’s market value.

TRON DAO marked the launch with a Cboe closing bell event on September 29. A rise in shares outstanding would show new demand for the fund.

TRONSCAN data shows TRX supply grew at an average yearly rate of 0.31% from August 30, 2025, to October 3, 2026. Daily changes depend on how many tokens are created and how many are burned.

On September 9, about 3.91 million TRX were generated and 2.58 million were burned. That left a net increase of about 1.33 million tokens for the day.

Price Levels in Focus A move to $0.38 would need a 13.4% gain from $0.335. Reaching $0.40 would need a 19.4% rise and would value circulating TRX near $38 billion.

Tron Price on CoinGecko A lasting break above $0.35 with higher trading volume would mark a move out of the recent range. A close below $0.32 after a breakout attempt would undo that path.

On the downside, $0.31 sits 7.5% below the current price and $0.29 is 13.4% lower. That case would require a lasting drop below the $0.32 to $0.325 area.

An October close between $0.32 and $0.36 would mean the token keeps trading in a narrow band.

Seven TRON addresses were recently sanctioned in a U.S. action. The designation applies to those addresses, not to the whole network or to TRX trading.

Macro data is also on the calendar. September CPI is due October 14, the Federal Reserve meets October 27 and 28, and PCE inflation data follows on October 29.

Key Takeaways IREN is signing three-year contracts above $20 million per MW, with discussions reaching $25 million.Pricing rose 125% for three-year and 70% for five-year contracts from the November 2025 levels.Customer prepayments, spare power and managed services could improve returns as IREN expands capacity. IREN Limited (IREN - Free Report) is seeing a sharp improvement in the economics of its infrastructure business, with revenue per megawatt (MW) emerging as an important growth driver. Recent three-year contracts were signed at more than $20 million of revenue per IT MW, while discussions around $25 million per MW point to further upside. IREN estimates that contracts above $20 million per MW can generate roughly a two-year payback.

Pricing momentum has strengthened materially. IREN said pricing on three-year contracts increased about 125%, while five-year contract pricing rose roughly 70% from the November 2025 levels. Its expanding platform and stronger market position are helping it negotiate better pricing and terms. With 2026 capacity largely sold out and $4 billion in contracted annualized run-rate revenue, tight supply further supports its negotiating position.

IREN is also improving project economics through customer prepayments and financing. Recent prepayments covered 45%-55% of GPU capex, reducing the capital IREN must fund. Spare power at existing facilities and power management technologies could also allow more GPUs to be deployed within available MW, potentially increasing revenues without equivalent increases in grid capacity.

The company is expanding beyond basic GPU capacity through managed services following its Mirantis acquisition. Shorter-duration contracts could provide additional upside as IREN captures prevailing market prices, while software capabilities may increase revenue per deployment.

However, execution remains critical as IREN commissions new capacity and converts its 2027-2028 pipeline into attractive contracts.

How Are IREN’s Competitors Faring?CoreWeave (CRWV - Free Report) is seeing strong pricing for short-duration AI compute contracts. In September 2026, newly signed three-to-six-month contracts were priced at roughly $40 million of annualized revenue per MW, reflecting tight capacity. Contracted power rose to about 4.2 GW by Aug. 11, while its revenue backlog reached $104 billion.

Nebius Group (NBIS - Free Report) is also benefiting from strong demand and higher pricing. Second-quarter AI-cloud deals averaged more than $20 million per MW, with four major contracts at $20-$25 million. Short-term deals in early third quarter indicated potential pricing of $40-$50 million per MW. About 70% of second-quarter deals included prepayments covering 50%-60% of capex.

IREN’s Price Performance, Valuation and EstimatesShares of IREN have risen 18.8% over the past six months, outperforming the S&P 500 composite and the broader industry. 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

In terms of forward 12-month Price/Sales (P/S), IREN is currently trading at 3.94X, which is at a premium to the industry average of 2.59X.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Estimates for IREN’s fiscal 2027 earnings have been revised downward in the past week.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Currently, IREN carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.