Market Signal Briefing

US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Post Largest Cycle Drawdown, Balances Fall by 100,300 BTC Prefer us on Google

US spot Bitcoin ETF balances fell by 100,300 BTC since October.The total holdings dropped to 1.26 million BTC amid outflows.ETF investors face average unrealized losses near 20%.According to data from Glassnode, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded their largest balance drawdown of the current market cycle following the early October all-time high.

Nonetheless, despite the recent outflows, the broader ETF picture still remains constructive.

Bitcoin ETFs See Deepest Cycle Pullback as Balances Fall to 1.26 Million BTC Glassnode data shows that since October, US spot Bitcoin ETF balances have declined by roughly 100,300 BTC. At press time, total holdings stood at approximately 1.26 million BTC.

The contraction reflects sustained net outflows, as investors have withdrawn capital from spot ETFs, leading funds to reduce holdings. According to SoSoValue, $1.6 billion was pulled from these products in January alone, extending a streak of monthly outflows that began in November 2025.

US Spot ETF Balances Show Largest Drawdown of Cycle. Source: GlassnodeThe decline in ETF balances has unfolded alongside a broader market downturn. Bitcoin has trended lower since reaching its record high of $126,000 in October. The weakness has spilled into 2026, fueling elevated fear and uncertainty across the market.

Although spot ETFs were widely seen as a structural catalyst during Bitcoin’s rally, experts suggest the same mechanism may have intensified downside pressure during periods of redemptions. In early February, Arthur Hayes argued that institutional dealer hedging activity is amplifying downward pressure on BTC prices.

“Institutional de-risking has added structural weight to the ongoing weakness, reinforcing the broader risk-off environment,” Glassnode added.

The strain extends beyond ETF outflows and into mounting unrealized losses. According to Glassnode, the average entry price for US spot Bitcoin ETF investors stands at approximately $83,980 per BTC. 

With Bitcoin trading at $67,349 at the time of writing, this cohort is currently sitting on paper losses of roughly 20%.

Bitcoin Average Cost Basis of US Spot ETF Deposits. Source: GlassnodeMeanwhile, the outflows are not isolated to Bitcoin. BeInCrypto reported $173 million exited digital asset funds last week. This marked the fourth consecutive week of redemptions, totaling $3.7 billion for the period.

Bitcoin ETF Net Inflows Still at $53 Billion Despite Recent Outflows Despite the pessimism, some analysts continue to emphasize the longer-term picture. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that cumulative net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs still stand at roughly $53 billion, down from a peak of over $63 billion in October 2025, even after recent outflows.

“Our (more bullish than most of our peers) prediction was $5-15b in first year. This is imp context to consider when looking/writing about the $8b in outflows since 45% decline and/or the relationship bt btc and Wall street, which has been overwhelmingly positive,” he added.

Bitcoin ETF Cumulative Net Flows Peaked at $63 Billion Before Falling to $53 Billion. Source: X/Eric BalchunasTaken together, the data suggest the current retracement reflects cyclical risk reduction rather than a structural reversal. ETF flows have amplified both upside and downside moves, embedding Bitcoin more deeply into traditional capital markets dynamics.

While short-term pressure may persist amid broader macro uncertainty, the scale and speed of institutional adoption since launch indicate that Bitcoin’s integration into Wall Street portfolios remains intact.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.

3 mins mins

Status as of Feb 20, 2026 (KST): no official Upbit AZTEC listingAs of Feb 20, 2026 (KST), there is no official Upbit announcement confirming an AZTEC spot listing. Rumor headlines have not been corroborated by Upbit’s own public notices.

Third‑party listing posts for AZTEC do not constitute an Upbit confirmation. Absent an exchange‑signed notice, the status remains unannounced and therefore unconfirmed for Upbit’s spot market.

What an Upbit AZTEC spot listing would meanIf announced, an Upbit listing could expand KRW‑denominated liquidity, improve local price discovery, and broaden retail access under south korea’s compliance standards. Any impact would depend on pair selection, fee tiers, and initial liquidity.

Faster listing cadence elsewhere does not guarantee eligibility for privacy‑enhancing technologies in Korea. As reported by BeInCrypto, Upbit has increased the frequency of listing communications, but screening outcomes still vary by asset class and risk profile.

Upbit has emphasized that listings are handled internally without external fee arrangements; AInvest reported the exchange denied “listing fee” allegations under regulatory scrutiny. Such disclosures suggest process discipline rather than timeline guidance for any single token.

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Outside Korea’s largest exchange, activity is clearer. According to Bybit, the exchange has announced a spot listing for AZTEC. Gate.com has communicated plans to add AZTEC to its spot market, while Phemex shows an AZTEC/USDT spot pair among supported markets.

On derivatives, an OKX Help Center notice stated it would “list pre‑market perpetual futures for AZTEC,” underscoring broader market interest beyond spot venues. Derivatives activity is distinct from spot and follows separate risk parameters.

At the time of this writing, AZTEC is quoted at $0.02947. This figure is presented for context only and should not be interpreted as guidance or a view on valuation.

How to verify any future official Upbit AZTEC announcementsOfficial Upbit channels to monitor for AZTEC updatesRely on Upbit’s formal investor notices published on its website and in‑app bulletin, alongside its verified corporate communications. Exchange‑signed updates will reference trading pairs, schedules, and deposit/withdrawal timelines.

Rumor-vs-fact verification checklist for listingsCross‑check any headline against an exchange‑signed notice naming the token, ticker, base currency, and go‑live time. Validate consistency across the exchange’s newsroom, help center, and in‑app alerts before treating third‑party posts as factual.

FAQ about Upbit AZTEC listingHas Upbit made an official announcement about AZTEC?No. As of Feb 20, 2026 (KST), there is no official Upbit AZTEC spot notice.

Where can I trade AZTEC right now on spot markets?Phemex lists AZTEC/USDT. Bybit and Gate.com have communicated spot plans; timing may differ.

DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.

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The crypto industry and traditional banking lobbies appear to be inching toward a historic compromise following weeks of gridlock that threatens the passage of the key U.S. digital asset legislation.

4 mins mins

Basel crypto capital rules’ 1,250% risk weight deters bank participation in BitcoinUnder the Basel crypto capital rules, Bitcoin generally falls into Group 2b with a 1,250% risk weight, effectively requiring near dollar‑for‑dollar capital, according to Skadden. That calibration raises balance‑sheet costs to a level that makes direct, on‑balance‑sheet Bitcoin exposure hard to justify for most regulated banks.

Trade associations have also criticized Group 2 exposure caps near 1% of Tier 1 capital, as reported by Decrypt. For large institutions, that ceiling constrains meaningful market‑making, principal trading, or inventory management, even if a bank could absorb the headline risk weight.

Practically, these mechanics steer banks toward minimal or agency‑only roles. The combination of high risk weights and tight exposure limits curbs principal activity and discourages building spot inventories or extending secured financing against permissionless cryptoassets.

The framework’s distinction between permissionless tokens and other digital assets further narrows options. Tokenized or permissioned‑ledger instruments may fit lighter categories, but flagship assets like Bitcoin face the strictest treatment under current standards.

Why U.S. reassessment of Basel III crypto rules mattersU.S. policymakers have signaled a reassessment to ensure capital requirements align with observed risks and do not push activity outside the supervisory perimeter. A recalibration could also reduce the risk of cross‑border inconsistencies that fragment liquidity.

In the ongoing Basel III Endgame deliberations, the federal reserve has acknowledged widespread criticism and the likelihood of revisions. “Broad and material changes” are expected before finalization, said Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Separately, the U.S. Treasury has called for a broader “reset” of capital requirements that are misaligned with actual risk, noting that outdated calibrations can impose unnecessary burdens on financial institutions. Any changes would still aim to preserve resilience standards while reducing unintended side effects.

A U.S. reset matters because it could reshape banks’ cost of capital for crypto activities. Lower risk weights or higher caps, if adopted, would expand viable use‑cases while staying within prudential guardrails.

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Banks have already tilted away from spot holdings and toward indirect or off‑balance‑sheet exposure. Institutions have migrated toward exchange‑traded products and derivatives rather than maintaining spot inventories, according to CoinDesk.

Custody remains strategically important but capital‑intensive once operational, counterparty, and potential indemnity risks are considered. Many banks therefore confine offerings to limited‑scope mandates, delaying broader rollouts until there is clarity on final capital treatment.

Exposure limits further constrain market‑making and secured lending. The caps restrict warehouse capacity, intraday inventory swings, and the ability to intermediate client flows at scale without breaching prudential thresholds.

At the time of this writing, Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $67,709 amid very high short‑term volatility of about 11.75% and bearish sentiment. That backdrop underscores why capital calibration and exposure governance directly shape banks’ risk‑appetite in crypto.

What a recalibration could look like for U.S. banksPolicy options: risk-weight changes and higher Group 2 exposure capsA pragmatic reset would start by differentiating assets and infrastructures. Stablecoins with strong reserves, tokenized government securities, and permissioned‑ledger exposures could receive lower, data‑driven risk weights than permissionless tokens.

Raising Group 2 caps above low single‑digits, with robust concentration and stress‑testing controls, could restore some intermediation capacity. Calibrations tied to liquidity, volatility, and market depth would better connect capital to measured risk.

Supervisors could phase changes with monitoring and Pillar 2 overlays. That approach would let banks re‑enter cautiously while preserving safeguards for tail‑risk events and operational resilience.

Industry lens: Strategy CEO’s Bitcoin-banking vision under lighter capitalIndustry advocates argue that lighter, risk‑sensitive capital could unlock safer bank‑led innovation. As reported by Cointelegraph, michael saylor has outlined regulated digital banking structures partly backed by Bitcoin, alongside tokenized credit and fiat components with over‑collateralization.

His argument presumes prudential capital that reflects observed market risk rather than blanket punitive weights. Under such a regime, banks might design compliant Bitcoin‑linked products without shifting activity to less regulated venues.

FAQ about Basel crypto capital rulesWill the U.S. modify Basel III Endgame to ease crypto capital requirements, and on what timeline?Officials have signaled reassessment, with revisions expected before finalization. Specific timelines remain uncertain and subject to ongoing rulemaking.

Can regulated banks economically offer Bitcoin custody or spot trading under current Basel crypto capital rules?Economics are challenging today. The 1,250% risk weight and tight Group 2 caps constrain principal exposure, pushing banks toward limited custody and indirect instruments.

DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.

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Transocean (RIG - Free Report) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.02 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.09 per share. This compares to a loss of $0.09 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -76.47%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this offshore oil and gas drilling contractor would post earnings of $0.04 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.06, delivering a surprise of +50%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times.

Transocean, which belongs to the Zacks Oil and Gas - Drilling industry, posted revenues of $1.04 billion for the quarter ended December 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.44%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $952 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates four times over the last four quarters.

The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.

Transocean shares have added about 50.6% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 0.5%.

What's Next for Transocean?While Transocean has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?

There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.

Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.

Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Transocean was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $0.05 on $980.89 million in revenues for the coming quarter and $0.19 on $3.84 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.

Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Oil and Gas - Drilling is currently in the bottom 27% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

One other stock from the broader Zacks Oils-Energy sector, Gevo, Inc. (GEVO - Free Report) , is yet to report results for the quarter ended December 2025. The results are expected to be released on March 5.

This company is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.03 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +66.7%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.

Gevo, Inc.'s revenues are expected to be $43.52 million, up 663.5% from the year-ago quarter.

NEW YORK, Feb. 19, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) --

WHY: Rosen Law Firm, a global investor rights law firm, reminds purchasers of securities of PomDoctor Ltd. (NASDAQ: POM) between October 9, 2025 and December 11, 2025, inclusive (the “Class Period”), of the important April 7, 2026 lead plaintiff deadline.

SO WHAT: If you purchased PomDoctor securities during the Class Period you may be entitled to compensation without payment of any out of pocket fees or costs through a contingency fee arrangement.

WHAT TO DO NEXT: To join the PomDoctor class action, go to https://rosenlegal.com/submit-form/?case_id=52621 or call Phillip Kim, Esq. toll-free at 866-767-3653 or email [email protected] for information on the class action. A class action lawsuit has already been filed. If you wish to serve as lead plaintiff, you must move the Court no later than April 7, 2026. A lead plaintiff is a representative party acting on behalf of other class members in directing the litigation.

WHY ROSEN LAW: We encourage investors to select qualified counsel with a track record of success in leadership roles. Often, firms issuing notices do not have comparable experience, resources, or any meaningful peer recognition. Many of these firms do not actually litigate securities class actions, but are merely middlemen that refer clients or partner with law firms that actually litigate the cases. Be wise in selecting counsel. The Rosen Law Firm represents investors throughout the globe, concentrating its practice in securities class actions and shareholder derivative litigation. Rosen Law Firm has achieved, at that time, the largest ever securities class action settlement against a Chinese Company. Rosen Law Firm was Ranked No. 1 by ISS Securities Class Action Services for number of securities class action settlements in 2017. The firm has been ranked in the top 4 each year since 2013 and has recovered hundreds of millions of dollars for investors. In 2019 alone the firm secured over $438 million for investors. In 2020, founding partner Laurence Rosen was named by law360 as a Titan of Plaintiffs’ Bar. Many of the firm’s attorneys have been recognized by Lawdragon and Super Lawyers.

DETAILS OF THE CASE: According to the lawsuit, defendants throughout the Class Period made false and/or misleading statements and/or failed to disclose that: (1) PomDoctor was the subject of a fraudulent stock promotion scheme involving social media-based misinformation and impersonated financial professionals; (2) insiders and/or affiliates used offshore or nominee accounts to facilitate the coordinated dumping of shares during a price inflation campaign; (3) PomDoctor’s public statements and risk disclosures omitted any mention of the false rumors and artificial trading activity driving the stock price; and (4) as a result of the foregoing, defendants’ positive statements about PomDoctor’s business, operations, and prospects were materially misleading and/or lacked a reasonable basis.

To join the PomDoctor class action, go to https://rosenlegal.com/submit-form/?case_id=52621 or call Phillip Kim, Esq. toll-free at 866-767-3653 or email [email protected] for information on the class action.

No Class Has Been Certified. Until a class is certified, you are not represented by counsel unless you retain one. You may select counsel of your choice. You may also remain an absent class member and do nothing at this point. An investor’s ability to share in any potential future recovery is not dependent upon serving as lead plaintiff.

Follow us for updates on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-rosen-law-firm, on Twitter: https://twitter.com/rosen_firm or on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/rosenlawfirm/.

Attorney Advertising. Prior results do not guarantee a similar outcome.

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Contact Information:

        Laurence Rosen, Esq.
        Phillip Kim, Esq.
        The Rosen Law Firm, P.A.
        275 Madison Avenue, 40th Floor
        New York, NY 10016
        Tel: (212) 686-1060
        Toll Free: (866) 767-3653
        Fax: (212) 202-3827
        [email protected]
        www.rosenlegal.com

The company's logo is seen at a building of Swiss drugmaker Novartis in Rotkreuz, Switzerland, January 29, 2020. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

Feb 20 (Reuters) - Swiss drugmaker Novartis (NOVN.S), opens new tab said on Friday it would sell its entire 70.68% stake in its listed Indian unit for 14.46 billion rupees ($159 million).

The stake will be acquired by a consortium of WaveRise Investments, ChrysCapital and Two Infinity Partners.

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The companies have also made an offer to purchase an additional 26% stake from Novartis India's public shareholders, under takeover regulations that mandate such an exercise on purchase of a shareholding of over 25%.

The consortium will offer Novartis India's public shareholders 860.64 rupees per share, an exchange filing showed, representing a 3.6% premium to its closing price on Thursday.

($1 = 91.0290 Indian rupees)

Reporting by Nandan Mandayam in Bengaluru; Editing by Sonia Cheema

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

Chief Executive Officer Novartis Vas Narasimhan attends the 55th annual World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Davos, Switzerland, January 22, 2025. REUTERS/Yves Herman Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

ROME, Georgia, Feb 19 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said he met Vas Narasimhan, the chief executive officer of Swiss drugmaker Novartis (NOVN.S), opens new tab, at the White House on Wednesday.

Trump, addressing workers at a steel plant in Rome, Georgia on Thursday, said Narasimhan told him during the meeting that his company was building 11 U.S. plants as a result of the president's tariff policies.

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"We appreciate the opportunity to update the U.S. government on our progress, including recent groundbreakings for manufacturing and research facilities in North Carolina and California and plans to expand our radioligand therapy manufacturing network with a new site in Florida," a spokesperson for Novartis told Reuters in an emailed statement.

The statement did not add any details on the number of facilities planned in the U.S.

Last year, the Swiss drugmaker said it planned to spend $23 billion to build and expand 10 facilities in the U.S. after the Trump administration threatened to impose drug import duties.

Reporting by Trevor Hunnicutt and Sneha SK, Additional reporting by Abu Sultan in Bengaluru; Writing by Andrea Shalal, Editing by Bhargav Acharya and Kate Mayberry

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

Firan Technology Group Corporation (FTG:CA) Q4 2025 Earnings Call February 19, 2026 8:30 AM EST

Company Participants

Bradley Bourne - President, CEO & Director
R. Knight - CFO, VP & Secretary

Conference Call Participants

Steven Hansen - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division
Russell Stanley - Beacon Securities Limited, Research Division
Nick Corcoran - Acumen Capital Finance Partners Limited, Research Division

Presentation

Operator

I would like to welcome everyone to the FTG Fourth Quarter 2025 Analyst Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Brad Bourne, President and Chief Executive Officer of FTG. Mr. Bourne, you may proceed.

Bradley Bourne
President, CEO & Director

Thank you. Good morning. I'm Brad Bourne, President and CEO of Firan Technology Group Corporation, or FTG. Also on the call today is Drew Knight, our Chief Financial Officer.

Before we go any further, I must caution you that this call may contain forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on the current expectations of management of the company and inherently involve numerous risks and uncertainties, known and unknown, including economic factors in the company's industry generally. The preceding list is not exhaustive of all possible factors. Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, and actual events and results could differ materially from those expressed or implied by forward-looking statements made by the company. The listener is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully when making decisions with respect to the company and not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. The company does not undertake and has no specific intention to update any forward-looking statements written or oral that may be made from time to time by or on its behalf, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

New York, New York--(Newsfile Corp. - February 19, 2026) - WHY: Rosen Law Firm, a global investor rights law firm, reminds purchasers of securities of agilon health, inc. (NYSE: AGL) between February 26, 2025 and August 4, 2025, both dates inclusive (the "Class Period"), of the important March 2, 2026 lead plaintiff deadline in the securities class action first filed by the Firm.

SO WHAT: If you purchased agilon securities during the Class Period you may be entitled to compensation without payment of any out of pocket fees or costs through a contingency fee arrangement.

WHAT TO DO NEXT: To join the agilon class action, go to https://rosenlegal.com/submit-form/?case_id=46039 or call Phillip Kim, Esq. toll-free at 866-767-3653 or email [email protected] for information on the class action. A class action lawsuit has already been filed. If you wish to serve as lead plaintiff, you must move the Court no later than March 2, 2026. A lead plaintiff is a representative party acting on behalf of other class members in directing the litigation.

WHY ROSEN LAW: We encourage investors to select qualified counsel with a track record of success in leadership roles. Often, firms issuing notices do not have comparable experience, resources, or any meaningful peer recognition. Many of these firms do not actually handle securities class actions, but are merely middlemen that refer clients or partner with law firms that actually litigate the cases. Be wise in selecting counsel. The Rosen Law Firm represents investors throughout the globe, concentrating its practice in securities class actions and shareholder derivative litigation. Rosen Law Firm has achieved, at that time, the largest ever securities class action settlement against a Chinese Company. Rosen Law Firm was Ranked No. 1 by ISS Securities Class Action Services for number of securities class action settlements in 2017. The firm has been ranked in the top 4 each year since 2013 and has recovered hundreds of millions of dollars for investors. In 2019 alone the firm secured over $438 million for investors. In 2020, founding partner Laurence Rosen was named by law360 as a Titan of Plaintiffs' Bar. Many of the firm's attorneys have been recognized by Lawdragon and Super Lawyers.

DETAILS OF THE CASE: According to the lawsuit, defendants throughout the Class Period made false and/or misleading statements and/or failed to disclose that: (1) defendants recklessly issued guidance for 2025 that they knew or should have known was not going to be achieved, given material industry headwinds of which they were aware; (2) defendants materially overstated the immediate positive financial impact from "strategic actions" taken by agilon to reduce risk; and (3) as a result, defendants' statements about agilon's business, operations, and prospects were materially false and/or misleading at all times. When the true details entered the market, the lawsuit claims that investors suffered damages.

To join the agilon class action, go to https://rosenlegal.com/submit-form/?case_id=46039 or call Phillip Kim, Esq. toll-free at 866-767-3653 or email [email protected] for information on the class action.

No Class Has Been Certified. Until a class is certified, you are not represented by counsel unless you retain one. You may select counsel of your choice. You may also remain an absent class member and do nothing at this point. An investor's ability to share in any potential future recovery is not dependent upon serving as lead plaintiff.

Follow us for updates on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-rosen-law-firm or on Twitter: https://twitter.com/rosen_firm or on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/rosenlawfirm.

Attorney Advertising. Prior results do not guarantee a similar outcome.

-------------------------------

To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/284591

Source: The Rosen Law Firm PA

Ready to Announce with Confidence? Send us a message and a member of our TMX Newsfile team will contact you to discuss your needs.

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New York, New York--(Newsfile Corp. - February 19, 2026) - WHY: Rosen Law Firm, a global investor rights law firm, announces a class action lawsuit on behalf of purchasers of ordinary shares of uniQure N.V. (NASDAQ: QURE) between September 24, 2025 and October 31, 2025, inclusive (the "Class Period"). A class action lawsuit has already been filed. If you wish to serve as lead plaintiff, you must move the Court no later than April 13, 2026.

SO WHAT: If you purchased uniQure ordinary shares during the Class Period you may be entitled to compensation without payment of any out of pocket fees or costs through a contingency fee arrangement.

WHAT TO DO NEXT: To join the uniQure class action, go to https://rosenlegal.com/submit-form/?case_id=53025 or call Phillip Kim, Esq. toll-free at 866-767-3653 or email [email protected] for information on the class action. A class action lawsuit has already been filed. If you wish to serve as lead plaintiff, you must move the Court no later than April 13, 2026. A lead plaintiff is a representative party acting on behalf of other class members in directing the litigation.

WHY ROSEN LAW: We encourage investors to select qualified counsel with a track record of success in leadership roles. Often, firms issuing notices do not have comparable experience, resources, or any meaningful peer recognition. Be wise in selecting counsel. The Rosen Law Firm represents investors throughout the globe, concentrating its practice in securities class actions and shareholder derivative litigation. Rosen Law Firm has achieved, at that time, the largest ever securities class action settlement against a Chinese Company. Rosen Law Firm was Ranked No. 1 by ISS Securities Class Action Services for number of securities class action settlements in 2017. The firm has been ranked in the top 4 each year since 2013 and has recovered hundreds of millions of dollars for investors. In 2019 alone the firm secured over $438 million for investors. In 2020, founding partner Laurence Rosen was named by law360 as a Titan of Plaintiffs' Bar. Many of the firm's attorneys have been recognized by Lawdragon and Super Lawyers.

DETAILS OF THE CASE: According to the lawsuit, defendants misrepresented and/or failed to disclose that: (1) the design of uniQure's Pivotal Study (a study of uniQure's leading drug candidate in patients with Huntington's Disease) — including comparison of the Pivotal Study results to the ENROLL-HD external historical data set— was not fully approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (the "FDA"); (2) defendants downplayed the likelihood that, despite purportedly highly successful results from the Pivotal Study, uniQure would have to delay its Biologics License Application ("BLA") timeline to perform additional studies to supplement its BLA submission; and (3) as a result, defendants' statements about uniQure's business, operations, and prospects lacked a reasonable basis. When the true details entered the market, the lawsuit claims that investors suffered damages.

To join the uniQure class action, go to https://rosenlegal.com/submit-form/?case_id=53025 or call Phillip Kim, Esq. toll-free at 866-767-3653 or email [email protected] for information on the class action.

No Class Has Been Certified. Until a class is certified, you are not represented by counsel unless you retain one. You may select counsel of your choice. You may also remain an absent class member and do nothing at this point. An investor's ability to share in any potential future recovery is not dependent upon serving as lead plaintiff.

Follow us for updates on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-rosen-law-firm, on Twitter: https://twitter.com/rosen_firm or on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/rosenlawfirm/.

Attorney Advertising. Prior results do not guarantee a similar outcome.

-------------------------------

To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/284638

Source: The Rosen Law Firm PA

Ready to Announce with Confidence? Send us a message and a member of our TMX Newsfile team will contact you to discuss your needs.

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For the quarter ended December 2025, Transocean (RIG - Free Report) reported revenue of $1.04 billion, up 9.6% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $0.02, compared to -$0.09 in the year-ago quarter.

The reported revenue represents a surprise of +0.44% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.04 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being $0.09, the EPS surprise was -76.47%.

While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street expectations to determine their next course of action, some key metrics always provide a better insight into a company's underlying performance.

As these metrics influence top- and bottom-line performance, comparing them to the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated helps investors project a stock's price performance more accurately.

Here is how Transocean performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:

Utilization - Total fleet average rig utilization: 85.8% compared to the 82.2% average estimate based on three analysts.Utilization - Ultra-Deepwater Floaters: 82.1% compared to the 77.5% average estimate based on three analysts.Average Daily Revenue - Harsh Environment Floaters: $449.8 thousand versus $445.6 thousand estimated by three analysts on average.Average Daily Revenue - Total fleet average daily revenue: $461.3 thousand compared to the $460.69 thousand average estimate based on three analysts.Average Daily Revenue - Ultra Deepwater Floaters: $466 thousand versus $467.12 thousand estimated by three analysts on average.Utilization - Harsh Environment Floaters: 96.6% compared to the 97.2% average estimate based on three analysts.Contract drilling revenues- Ultra-Deepwater Floaters: $724 million versus $715.42 million estimated by two analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +7.3% change.Contract drilling revenues- Harsh Environment Floaters: $319 million versus $265.02 million estimated by two analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +15.2% change.View all Key Company Metrics for Transocean here>>>

Shares of Transocean have returned +34.3% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -0.8% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating that it could perform in line with the broader market in the near term.

Shares of membership-based wholesale retailer Costco Wholesale (COST 0.90%) are once again trading at levels near $1,000 after rising about 15% this year, crushing the S&P 500. Is the stock's strong outperformance a sign that shares are undervalued, or does its recent rise make the investment decision to buy even more difficult?

Ultimately, the investing question with Costco stock is not whether the company is executing. That's arguably its specialty -- consistently strong execution month in and month out. The bigger question for investors is whether the fundamentals are strong enough to justify the price investors are still paying for the stock.

And at today's valuation, I do not think they are.

Image source: Getty Images.

Sales trends remain solid Costco's latest monthly update showed the business is still growing at an enviable pace. In the four-week retail month of January (ended Feb. 1, 2026), net sales rose 9.3% year over year to $21.3 billion. And for the first 22 weeks of the fiscal year, net sales increased 8.5% to $123.2 billion.

Looking at the retailer's comparable sales trends, or its sales trends at stores open for more than a year, the key metric shows that the company continues to find ways to get more out of its stores. Costco reported total company comparable sales of 7.1% in January. But when you strip out changes in gasoline prices and foreign exchange, total company comparable sales were 6.4% for the month.

Worth noting: Costco's digitally enabled comparable sales were especially strong in January, rising 34.4% as reported, or 33.1% when adjusted for gas and foreign exchange. This compares to 18.3% adjusted growth in digitally enabled sales during Costco's retail month of December.

Costco's fiscal first-quarter results (ended Nov. 23, 2025) tell a similar story: steady, high-quality growth.

Net sales during the period rose 8.2% year over year to $66.0 billion. And membership fees rose even faster, growing at a rate of 14% year over year. And the company's adjusted comparable sales for the quarter -- excluding gasoline and foreign exchange -- were 6.4% for total company comparable sales and 20.5% for digitally enabled comparable sales.

In short, the business is executing.

Costco continues to grow comparable sales in the mid-6% range, and its e-commerce growth is running much faster than its core warehouse base, showing that the company is well-positioned to succeed in a world where e-commerce continues to gain momentum. This is a good sign for investors worried about Amazon as a potential long-term threat to Costco.

Today's Change

(

-0.90

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-8.99

Current Price

$

987.09

The problem is what the stock already assumes Steady growth like this, derived from a business built on durability with a loyal customer base and a recurring, high-margin revenue stream from membership fees, demands a premium valuation from investors. But this doesn't mean investors should pay just any price to get into this growth story.

As of this writing, Costco trades at about 53 times earnings.

A multiple like this prices in exceptional growth without any slowdown -- years of mid-single-digit (or better) comparable store sales, continued membership fee growth, and meaningful profit margin expansion. Of course, this is exactly what Costco is delivering right now. But what if sales growth unexpectedly slows? Or what if competition from Amazon or Walmart's Sam's Club starts to chip away at Costco's growth prospects?

The problem isn't necessarily that Costco stock is grossly overvalued. It's not. But there's no room for error in its current valuation. Investors may want to demand at least some margin of safety when buying. For this reason, I think a price around $830 per share, or better, is probably a better entry point than $1,000.

The Return Stacked Bonds & Managed Futures ETF has delivered a 12.25% year-over-year price return after shedding value during 2022/23's inflation de-anchoring – the vehicle remains cyclical and macro-linked. RSBT splits capital between AGG ETF and managed futures, relying on leading trend-following strategies. However, I think relative value or discretionary would've provided better diversification. Despite showing soft intra-asset correlations, covariance can spike during extreme market environments. Moreover, true portfolio convexity or downside protection has yet to surface.

Meanwhile, Japanese inflation cooled sharply in January, dampening bets on a Bank of Japan rate hike, bolstering demand for US equity futures.

While markets are likely to remain exposed to rising geopolitical risks, expectations of an H1 2026 Fed rate cut continue to support a bullish medium-term outlook for US stock futures. Later on Friday, key US data will influence sentiment toward the Fed’s policy stance and risk appetite.

Below, I’ll outline the key market drivers, the medium-term outlook, and the technical levels traders should watch.

US-Iran Developments Test Risk Sentiment Overnight, US President Trump reportedly set an ultimatum for Iran to reach a deal over its nuclear program or face the consequences. Regarding the timeline to reach a deal, the US President stated:

“You’ll be finding out over the next probably 10 days. I would think that would be enough time, 10, 15 days, pretty much maximum.”

The threat of a full-blown US-Iran conflict sent WTI crude oil to $66.8, its highest level since August 2025. In June 2025, WTI crude soared from $63 levels to a high of $75.8 in response to Israel’s military strikes against Iran.

USDJPY – Hourly Chart – 200226 US Economic Calendar to Spotlight the Fed US futures posted modest gains during the Asian session on February 20. The Dow Jones E-mini advanced 44 points, while the Nasdaq 100 E-mini and the S&P 500 E-mini climbed 42 points and 11 points, respectively.

Later in Friday’s session, Services PMI and the Personal Income and Outlays report will affect market bets on a June Fed rate cut. A pickup in service sector activity and an upswing in the Core PCE Price Index would temper expectations of a June Fed rate cut. However, traders should consider the personal income and spending figures. Lower income and weaker spending would signal a softer inflation outlook.

While markets are typically sensitive to the Personal Income and Outlays report, the figures are for December, which may limit market volatility. However, the Services PMI will be key, with traders also needing to consider output price trends, a key contributor to US inflation.

Beyond the data, traders should closely monitor FOMC members’ reactions to the US economic data. Support for a June rate cut after softer US inflation would lift demand for US stock futures.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a June Fed cut fell from 62.3% on February 12 to 58.0% on February 20. Nevertheless, markets still expect two Fed rate cuts in 2026, with a year-end target rate of 3.00%-3.25%, key to the bullish medium- to longer-term outlook for US stock futures.

Key Technical Levels for Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500 Despite the morning gains, the Nasdaq 100 E-mini and the S&P 500 E-mini remained below their 50-day EMAs, while holding above their 200-day EMAs. The EMA positions indicated a bearish near-term but bullish longer-term outlook. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones E-mini held above its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, signaling a bullish bias that aligns with favorable fundamentals.

Near-term trends will hinge on the upcoming US economic indicators, central bank chatter, and Middle East developments. Key levels to monitor include:

Dow Jones

Resistance: 50,000, the February 10 record high of 50,611, and then 51,000. Support: the 50-day EMA (49,068), and then 48,500.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in IIPR.PR.A over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Altus Group Limited (AIF:CA) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Few cryptocurrencies spark as much debate as XRP. Critics across the crypto and decentralized finance (DeFi) space argue that XRP lacks real utility and functions primarily as a speculative digital asset. Meanwhile, its passionate community, often referred to as the “XRP Army,” believes XRP will play a central role in the future of global financial infrastructure. The reality lies somewhere in between. XRP does provide real-world utility, but its applications are more specialized than many assume.

Launched in 2012, XRP is the native cryptocurrency of the XRP Ledger, a blockchain built specifically for fast, low-cost cross-border payments. Unlike Bitcoin, which is primarily viewed as a store of value, or Ethereum, which powers smart contracts and decentralized applications, XRP was designed to facilitate efficient international money transfers. Transactions on the XRP Ledger typically settle within three to five seconds and cost a fraction of a cent, making it one of the fastest and most cost-effective blockchain networks available.

One of XRP’s core use cases is serving as a bridge currency. Financial institutions and payment providers can use XRP to instantly convert one fiat currency into another without maintaining large pre-funded foreign accounts. This liquidity solution is central to Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) service, which is used by companies such as SBI Remit in Japan and Tranglo in Southeast Asia for international remittances.

As of early 2026, the XRP Ledger has approximately 6 to 7 million funded accounts. After accounting for exchange wallets and multiple holdings, analysts estimate that 2 to 3 million individuals worldwide hold XRP. Crypto exchanges including Binance, Kraken, Bitstamp, and Uphold also rely on XRP for liquidity management and rapid fund transfers.

While major banks like Santander, Standard Chartered, and Bank of America have integrated Ripple’s payment technology, most do not directly use XRP itself. Instead, XRP adoption is concentrated among select payment providers and liquidity partners.

Beyond payments, XRP plays a critical technical role within its ecosystem. Every account on the XRP Ledger must hold XRP, and all transactions require XRP for network fees. The token also supports decentralized trading, token issuance, and asset transfers.

XRP is neither universally adopted nor without purpose. Its utility is focused, particularly in cross-border payments, liquidity provisioning, and blockchain-based settlement infrastructure. Understanding who actually uses XRP provides a clearer, more balanced perspective on its real-world role in the evolving crypto economy.

<Copyright ⓒ TokenPost, unauthorized reproduction and redistribution prohibited>

TL;DR:

Ether consolidates in a technical triangle pattern following a severe market correction. Analysts identify an “Expanding Diagonal” structure with long-term price targets. Support at $1,800 remains firm while the RSI shows early signs of recovery. The behavior of Ethereum’s price toward $2,000 is capturing market attention as it consolidates in a zone of high technical relevance. Following a significant pullback, the cryptocurrency has formed a compression triangle on the daily chart, suggesting an imminent move.

Currently, the token’s price is struggling to overcome immediate resistance while selling momentum stalls. Investors are acting with caution, as the valuation remains below old support levels, which now appear to be a psychological barrier that is difficult to breach.

Despite short-term uncertainty, higher-timeframe analysis offers a much more optimistic outlook for Ether holders. Expert Gert van Lagen points out that the asset is following a textbook pattern known as an “Expanding Diagonal” that began in 2018.

Macro Projections: Toward a Historic Breakout Zone? This technical structure suggests that once the current consolidation phase is complete, Ethereum could enter its final bullish stage. Projections place the ultimate target for this cycle in a zone between $9,000 and $18,000 per unit.

For this scenario to materialize, it is crucial for Ethereum’s price to establish a solid support base. For now, filling the fair value gaps between $1,800 and $2,300 seems to have provided the necessary liquidity to halt the bleeding.

In summary, although the RSI shows a recovery from oversold levels, the definitive direction will be resolved at the apex of the current triangle. The market awaits clear macroeconomic signals to validate this ambitious technical count and resume the growth path toward new all-time highs.

Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

A staggering $117 million worth of XRP has just shifted hands on the Ripple blockchain in a transaction that has left even seasoned crypto watchers wondering about the wallets involved. According to data publicly shared by crypto analyst Ripple Bull Winkle, on-chain records include timestamps, exact amounts, hashes, and transaction fees, but nothing about the identities of the sender or receiver.  

Analyst Reveals Under-The-Radar XRP Transfer A massive 81 million XRP, valued at roughly $117 million, was transferred on the Ripple network, and the identities behind it remain unknown. Ripple Bull Winkle revealed the move in a post on X, sharing screenshots of on-chain data from Whale Alert showing millions of the token shifting between two crypto wallets with no labels, no exchange involvement, and no public trace. 

Notably, the large-scale transfer took place on Tuesday, February 17, drawing the crypto community’s attention for its sheer scale and anonymity. According to Ripple Bull Winkle, transactions of this size never happen by accident. He suggested that the movement was deliberate, hinting at strategic positioning rather than a routine transfer. 

Source: Chart from Ripple Bull Winkle on X The analyst also noted that the lack of identifiable wallets also fuels speculation that a whale may be accumulating XRP ahead of an event or market shift, though nothing is certain yet. He further remarked that “someone knows something,” implying that insiders or large holders may be acting on information not yet visible to the broader crypto market. 

Interestingly, Ripple’s blockchain logs confirm the transfer and provide the wallet addresses involved, but reveal nothing about who orchestrated the substantial transfer. The timing of the transaction amid the broader decline in the XRP price adds another layer of intrigue. Notably, the altcoin has been in a pronounced downtrend for months, dropping from 2025 highs above $3 to under $1.5 at the time of writing. This steep decline has been driven by a combination of market factors, including sell-side pressure. 

Commenters on Ripple Bull Winkle’s post have speculated that the 81 million XRP transfer could signal upcoming selling. At the same time, they also caution that the move may have no deeper significance and could simply be a wallet-to-wallet transfer for security or operational purposes.

The Trend Remains Largely Bearish In a more price-focused analysis, market analyst Crypto Tony stated that XRP’s current trend is “most certainly bearish.” This assessment comes as the cryptocurrency continues to break key support zones and trade below former resistance levels. 

Crypto Tony indicated that the altcoin’s price could continue its downtrend, potentially declining further toward $1.38. At its current price of 1.42, this would represent a significant correction of approximately 2.8%. Notably, the analyst has highlighted a resistance level above $1.5 on his accompanying chart, suggesting XRP could revisit this area if it regains bullish momentum. 

XRP trading at $1.41 on the 1D chart | Source: XRPUSDT on Tradingview.com Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

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Scott Matherson is a leading crypto writer at Bitcoinist, who possesses a sharp analytical mind and a deep understanding of the digital currency landscape. Scott has earned a reputation for delivering thought-provoking and well-researched articles that resonate with both newcomers and seasoned crypto enthusiasts. Outside of his writing, Scott is passionate about promoting crypto literacy and often works to educate the public on the potential of blockchain.

Nevertheless, expectations that the US Senate will eventually pass the Market Structure Bill, increased XRP utility, and resilient demand for US-XRP-spot ETFs continue to support a bullish medium-term (4-8 weeks) outlook for XRP, with a price target of $2.5.

Below, I will explore the key drivers behind recent price trends, the medium-term outlook, and the technical levels traders should watch.

US Jobless Claims Temper Fed Rate Cut Bets On February 19, US labor market data dented hopes for a June Fed rate cut, weighing on risk assets. Initial jobless claims fell from 229k (week ending February 7) to 206k (week ending February 14), signaling tighter labor market conditions.

Typically, a tighter labor market boosts wage growth and consumer spending. An upswing in consumer spending would fuel demand-driven inflation, supporting a more hawkish Fed rate path. The jobless claims figures aligned with January’s jobs report. Unemployment fell from 4.4% in December to 4.3% in January, while average hourly earnings rose 3.7% year-on-year, mirroring December’s trend.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a June Fed rate cut has fallen from 62.3% on February 12 to 58.5% on February 20. Strong US labor market data and hawkish Fed Minutes overshadowed a softer CPI report. Later on Friday, February 20, US economic data will influence buying interest in XRP. Q4 GDP data, the Services PMI, and the Personal Income and Outlays report will be key for XRP and the broader crypto market.

XRP reacted to the Minutes and the jobless claims data, falling from $1.4452 to a February 20 session low of $1.3820.

SoSoValue – Weekly XRP-Spot ETF Flows – 200226 XRP Price Forecast: Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Targets XRP has plunged 13.7% in February, supporting a cautiously bearish short-term outlook (1-4 weeks), with a target price of $1.0.

Nevertheless, resilient since-launch demand for XRP-spot ETFs, expectations that the US Senate will pass the Market Structure Bill, and increased XRP utility affirm the bullish medium- to long-term price projections:

Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $2.5. Longer-term (8-12 weeks): $3.0. Key Downside Risks to the Bullish Medium-Term Outlook Several factors could derail the constructive medium-term bias. These include:

A US-Iran conflict. Strong US economic data dampens bets on an H1 2026 Fed rate cut. Delays and/or partisan opposition to the Market Structure Bill. Extended periods of XRP-spot ETF net outflows. Traders should also consider Bank of Japan chatter, given the impact of the mid-2024 yen carry trade unwind on XRP.

A hawkish Bank of Japan, with a higher neutral interest rate (potentially 1.5%-2.5%), would indicate multiple BoJ rate hikes. Multiple hikes would narrow US-Japan rate differentials in favor of the yen. Narrowing rate differentials could trigger a yen carry trade unwind, drying up market liquidity. For context, the BoJ previously announced a wider neutral rate band of 1%-2.5% but stated it would announce a narrower range at a later date.

These factors would weigh on XRP, push the token toward $1.0, and reinforce the cautiously bearish short-term outlook.

Technical Analysis: Levels to Watch XRP fell 1.08% on February 19, following the previous day’s 3.47% loss, closing at $1.4068. The token bucked the broader market trend, where the crypto market cap climbed 0.42%.

Thursday’s pullback left XRP trading well below its 50-day and 200-day EMAs. The EMA positions signaled a bearish bias. Notably, the 50-day EMA steepened, pulling further back from the 200-day EMA, indicating further near-term selling pressure. Nevertheless, several positive fundamentals continue to counter bearish technicals, supporting the bullish medium-term outlook. Despite these positive fundamentals, short-term technicals remain bearish.

Key technical levels to watch include:

Support levels: $1.0, and then $0.7773. 50-day EMA resistance: $1.6877. 200-day EMA resistance: $2.1156. Resistance levels: $1.5, $2.0, $2.5, and $3.0. On the daily chart, a break above $1.50 would pave the way toward the 50-day EMA. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA would signal a near-term bullish trend reversal. A bullish trend reversal would bring the 200-day EMA into play.

A sustained break above the EMAs would affirm a bullish trend reversal and reinforce the medium- to longer-term price targets.

XRPUSD – Daily Chart – 200226 – Bearish Structure XRP Outlook: Geopolitics, Crypto Legislation, ETF Flows, and the Fed in Focus Looking ahead, several key price catalysts expose XRP to increased volatility. Rising tensions in the Middle East and a US-Iran conflict would likely overshadow crypto-related legislative developments.

Nevertheless, an end to the TradFi-DeFi stalemate on stablecoin yields would boost hopes that the Senate will pass the Market Structure Bill, lifting XRP demand.

However, central bank chatter, US economic indicators, and XRP-spot ETF flows will also influence XRP’s price projection.

A more dovish Fed and a lower BoJ neutral rate (potentially 1%-1.25%) would lift sentiment. Strong demand for US XRP-spot ETFs and crypto-friendly legislative developments would reaffirm the bullish medium- to longer-term outlook.

In summary, these events would support a medium-term (4–8 weeks) move to $2.5. The US Senate passing the Market Structure Bill would reaffirm the longer-term (8-12 weeks) price target of $3.0.

Beyond 12 weeks, these factors may send XRP to its all-time high of $3.66 (Binance). A breakout above $3.66 would reinforce a 6- to 12-month price target of $5.

Bitcoin remains locked in a strengthening bear market as volatility spikes and liquidity weakens, signaling deeper downside risk ahead, according to on-chain analyst Willy Woo. Willy Woo Warns Bitcoin Bear Market Is Strengthening Market analysts are signaling caution in the digital asset sector as volatility accelerates. On Feb.

Journalist

Posted: February 20, 2026

Bitcoin [BTC] price may be steadying right now, but things are shakier than they look.

A lot quieter than it used to be… According to Santiment, network participation has dropped since the last cycle peak in 2021.

Bitcoin addresses making transactions has fallen by around 42% over the past five years. At the same time, new address creation is down by roughly 47%. User growth is at a much slower pace, even though prices reached new highs in recent years.

Source: Santiment

Perhaps demand is not as strong as it appears. For any sustained recovery, real usage (not just price) needs to pick up again.

Losses are piling up This drop is now showing up where it hurts most – investor profits.

A recent report by GugaOnChain revealed that Bitcoin traders are sitting on nearly $27.89 billion in unrealized losses, equal to a 23% drop in value. These losses mostly belong to self-custody holders who bought Bitcoin recently and are now underwater with falling prices.

Source: CryptoQuant

Profits turned into losses as Bitcoin declined, wiping out months of gains. ETF investors are also feeling the pressure, with $8.5 billion already lost since October.

Adding to the caution, Nic Puckrin, co-founder of Coin Bureau and lead market analyst, told AMBCrypto,

“Bitcoin hasn’t reached its bear market bottom yet. Historically, these have aligned with the 200-week moving average or on-chain signals, which… somewhere between $58,000 and $55,000, which is the average acquisition price of all coins.”

Where do we go from here? According to analyst burakkesmeci, Bitcoin recently fell below the New Whales’ realized price of $88.7K. Once this happens, Bitcoin usually tends to move toward lower support zones.

Source: Cryptoquant

The next critical levels are the Binance user deposit address realized price at $58.7K and the overall realized price at $54.7K. These levels represent the average cost basis for many holders. They are also often considered as support.

Greater pressures may also hold the market back. Puckrin noted,

“Right now, the liquidity backdrop isn’t conducive to a meaningful rebound… This simply isn’t the environment for a structural rally.”

Final Summary Bitcoin’s next move could define the yearly trend. Recovery may take longer than expected.

Ethereum’s technical structure has weakened further after slipping decisively below the $2,100 level, reinforcing short-term bearish pressure. However, while the breakdown raises the risk of a deeper downside, a repeating fractal pattern on the higher timeframe offers a potential glimmer of hope, suggesting that a larger breakout could still emerge if history rhymes.

Key $2.3K–$2.1K Support Zone Lost According to Crypto Candy, Ethereum has decisively lost its key daily support zone between $2,300 and $2,100, closing firmly below it and confirming a structural breakdown. This area had previously acted as a strong demand region, repeatedly absorbing selling pressure. Its failure marks an important technical shift, suggesting that the broader market structure has weakened.

With the breakdown confirmed, the former support zone has now flipped into a significant resistance area. ETH has already attempted to reclaim the $2,100–$2,300 range but has failed to regain acceptance above it. This rejection reinforces the idea that sellers are defending the level aggressively, keeping short-term momentum tilted to the downside.

Source: Chart from Crypto Candy on X If bearish momentum continues to build, the next major support region to watch sits between $1,700 and $1,500. A move into this range would align with typical continuation behavior following a failed reclaim of broken support.

For now, the bias remains bearish as long as Ethereum trades below the $2,300–$2,100 zone. Only a strong reclaim followed by sustained consolidation above that range would invalidate the downside scenario. 

Ethereum Fractal Structure Mirrors Pre-Rally Setup Providing a weekly Ethereum update, Trader Tardigrade pointed to a compelling fractal comparison that suggests a familiar structure may be unfolding. The expert’s analysis highlights the formation of a rectangular consolidation box, a setup that closely resembles the price behavior seen before Ethereum’s explosive rally in late 2025.

During that previous cycle, ETH spent weeks compressing within a clearly defined horizontal range, building energy before eventually breaking out with strong momentum. The current chart shows a nearly identical box pattern forming, positioned similarly within the broader ascending channel. The symmetry between the two structures strengthens the case that this may not be random consolidation, but rather a repeat of a larger cyclical pattern.

If the fractal continues to play out as it did before, a decisive breakout above the current range could trigger a powerful upside expansion. Just as in 2025, the longer the price compresses within the box, the more aggressive the eventual move could become. A confirmed break and sustained acceptance above the range would be the key signal that Ethereum is transitioning from accumulation to markup once again.

ETH trading at $1,957 on the 1D chart | Source: ETHUSDT on Tradingview.com Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

Darius Baruo Feb 20, 2026 03:43

Bitcoin trades at $67,382 with RSI at neutral 35.54 suggesting oversold bounce potential. Technical analysis points to $70K test within 2 weeks if key resistance breaks.

Bitcoin is showing signs of technical stabilization at current levels around $67,382, with several indicators suggesting a potential bounce from oversold conditions. This BTC price prediction analyzes the key technical levels and market dynamics that could drive Bitcoin's next major move.

BTC Price Prediction Summary • Short-term target (1 week): $70,000-$72,000 • Medium-term forecast (1 month): $65,000-$75,000 range • Bullish breakout level: $68,691 (strong resistance) • Critical support: $64,978

What Crypto Analysts Are Saying About Bitcoin While specific analyst predictions from the past 24 hours are limited, recent institutional forecasts remain bullish on Bitcoin's long-term trajectory. VanEck's bold projection of Bitcoin reaching $2.9 million by 2050 with a 15% compound annual growth rate demonstrates continued institutional confidence in the asset's potential.

Standard Chartered maintains their $200,000 target, though their original timeline of end-2025 has passed. According to on-chain data from platforms like Glassnode and CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's fundamentals remain strong despite the recent price consolidation below key moving averages.

Technical analyst Rekt Capital noted bullish divergence patterns on daily charts, suggesting the next leg up could target the $98,000 level, though this would require a significant breakout from current resistance zones.

BTC Technical Analysis Breakdown Bitcoin's current technical picture presents a mixed but increasingly constructive outlook. The RSI at 35.54 sits in neutral territory but closer to oversold levels, suggesting selling pressure may be exhausting. This Bitcoin forecast incorporates several key technical factors:

Moving Average Analysis: Bitcoin trades below all major moving averages, with the 7-day SMA at $67,985 providing immediate resistance. The 20-day SMA at $69,741 represents a critical level for any sustained recovery, while the 50-day SMA at $82,259 and 200-day SMA at $99,405 highlight the significant ground Bitcoin needs to recover.

Momentum Indicators: The MACD histogram at exactly 0.0000 suggests momentum may be shifting from bearish to neutral, though confirmation is needed. The Stochastic oscillator shows %K at 31.66 and %D at 25.33, indicating potential for a bounce from oversold levels.

Bollinger Bands: Bitcoin's position at 0.34 within the Bollinger Bands (where 0 = lower band, 1 = upper band) suggests the price is in the lower third of its recent range, with room for mean reversion toward the middle band at $69,741.

Bitcoin Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case Bullish Scenario A break above the immediate resistance at $68,036 could trigger short-covering and momentum buying toward $68,691, the strong resistance level. Successfully clearing this zone opens the path toward the 20-day SMA at $69,741, with potential extension to $72,000-$75,000.

The bullish case requires volume confirmation and RSI moving above 50. A daily close above $68,691 would be the key technical confirmation needed for this BTC price prediction to materialize.

Bearish Scenario Failure to hold current support levels could see Bitcoin test the strong support at $64,978. A breakdown below this level would target the Bollinger Band lower boundary at $62,253, representing a 7-8% downside risk from current levels.

The primary risk factors include broader market weakness, regulatory concerns, and failure to generate buying interest at these levels. The 24-hour trading range of $65,631-$67,488 will be crucial to monitor for directional clues.

Should You Buy BTC? Entry Strategy Current levels around $67,000-$67,500 present a reasonable entry opportunity for medium-term positions, with the RSI reset providing better risk-adjusted entry points than seen in recent weeks.

Primary entry: $66,500-$67,500 range Stop-loss: Below $64,500 (daily close basis) First target: $70,000-$72,000 Risk-reward ratio: Approximately 2:1 Risk Management: Given Bitcoin's daily ATR of $2,799, position sizing should account for potential 4-5% daily moves. This volatility measure suggests careful position management is essential.

Conclusion This Bitcoin forecast suggests a 65% probability of Bitcoin testing $70,000 within the next two weeks, contingent on breaking above the $68,691 resistance level. The technical setup favors a bounce from current oversold conditions, though broader market sentiment will ultimately determine the sustainability of any rally.

The medium-term outlook remains constructive for Bitcoin, with the current consolidation potentially setting the stage for the next major leg higher. However, failure to hold support at $64,978 would shift the near-term bias bearish.

Disclaimer: This BTC price prediction is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before investing.

Image source: Shutterstock

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