Market Signal Briefing

TLDR:

U.S. taxpayers may soon pay federal taxes directly in Bitcoin, no capital gains tax applied.
Bitcoin payments will flow into a national strategic reserve, creating consistent demand.
IRS could become the largest Bitcoin buyer, driving systematic, sovereign-scale accumulation.
Even 5–10% adoption could inject hundreds of billions of dollars into Bitcoin annually.

Bitcoin is poised for a historic shift after the U.S. Congress introduced the Bitcoin for America Act. 

The proposed legislation allows Americans to pay federal taxes using Bitcoin, with all payments directed to a national strategic reserve. Notably, these transactions would incur zero capital gains tax, creating a unique demand mechanism for the cryptocurrency.

The move could establish Bitcoin as a major component in U.S. federal financial operations. Analysts note that even a modest adoption rate by taxpayers could lead to unprecedented Bitcoin accumulation. 

This development marks a clear step toward integrating Bitcoin into national economic structures.

Federal Tax Payments as a Bitcoin Demand Driver
The Bitcoin for America Act enables U.S. taxpayers to use Bitcoin to settle federal obligations directly.

 According to Merlijn The Trader, the IRS currently collects $5.2 trillion annually. Even a five percent adoption would generate $260 billion in yearly Bitcoin inflows. If ten percent of taxpayers participate, the inflows could reach $520 billion.

BREAKING:

THE U.S. JUST UNLOCKED THE BIGGEST BITCOIN DEMAND DRIVER IN HISTORY.

Congress just introduced the Bitcoin for America Act.

Americans will be able to pay federal taxes in Bitcoin
with zero capital gains tax
and every BTC going straight into a national strategic… pic.twitter.com/iFa78CsEWJ

— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) December 14, 2025

The legislation channels Bitcoin purchases into a national strategic reserve, creating a stable accumulation pattern. 

This setup eliminates speculative elements that often drive extreme volatility. Bitcoin, in this framework, would serve as a government-controlled reserve asset.

Merlijn The Trader described the initiative as “monetary engineering at planetary scale,” emphasizing the systematic nature of taxpayer-driven accumulation. The act positions the IRS as potentially the world’s largest Bitcoin buyer, providing a consistent source of demand.

Bitcoin’s Role in Sovereign Financial Structures
The act transforms Bitcoin into state-backed collateral supporting the U.S. financial system. 

By directing federal tax payments in Bitcoin to a national reserve, the government absorbs price volatility at a sovereign scale. This mechanism ensures gradual integration without destabilizing markets.

As adoption normalizes, Bitcoin’s scarcity intensifies, reinforcing its position in financial networks. 

The reserve could operate without relying on ETFs, mining incentives, or speculative trading. Every Bitcoin added strengthens the structure of a national crypto reserve.

Merlijn The Trader’s tweet notes, “One law turns the IRS into the world’s largest Bitcoin buyer. Bitcoin won’t replace the dollar. It’s about to start backing it.” 

This perspective underscores the strategic accumulation and the potential stabilization role of Bitcoin in federal finances. The legislation may redefine how digital assets interact with traditional state systems.

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According to Itaú Asset Management, Brazil’s largest private bank, investors should consider holding 1%–3% of their portfolios in Bitcoin starting in 2026. The recommendation came in a research outlook released this week and frames Bitcoin as a small, complementary holding rather than a main bet.

Itaú Backs Small Bitcoin Positions
The bank’s note points to Bitcoin’s low correlation with many traditional assets and to currency risks that hit local investors hard this year. Itaú also moved to build the infrastructure behind that view: in September 2025 it created a dedicated crypto division and named former Hashdex executive João Marco Braga da Cunha to lead the team. That new unit sits alongside the bank’s existing products and is meant to help clients access regulated crypto tools.

Access Through Local Products
Brazilian savers can already reach Bitcoin via products tied to Itaú. The bank is part of the team that launched the IT Now Bloomberg Galaxy Bitcoin ETF, known by its ticker BITI11, which began trading on November 10, 2022. The ETF gives investors a spot-like route to Bitcoin inside the local market, and it sits alongside unit trusts and pension products that offer crypto exposure.

A correlation matrix showing how BITI11, a Bitcoin ETF, moves in relation to major Brazilian and global market indices, according to data from Itaú.
Small But Existing Crypto Footprint
Itaú says its regulated crypto suite manages roughly R$850 million across several funds and ETFs, a modest amount compared with its wider business but still a clear signal of product readiness. The bank’s asset arm is large: it manages more than 1 trillion reais for clients, which helps explain why its guidance on allocations draws wide attention.

BTCUSD currently trading at $89,003. Chart: TradingView
Market Context And Timing
Itaú’s move arrives after a year in which currency swings amplified losses for some Brazilian holders of foreign assets. That reality appears to be part of the math behind recommending a 1%–3% position — a small buffer for those worried about local-currency shocks, not a bet meant to replace stocks or bonds. The bank frames the position as a disciplined, long-term allocation, not a short-term trade.

What This Means For Investors
For ordinary investors the guidance is simple to read: keep exposure small and controlled. A 1% position will hardly change a diversified portfolio on its own, while 3% is still within what many institutions have called a “satellite” slot. Based on reports, Itaú expects to offer more choices — from low-volatility wrappers to riskier strategies — through the new unit as demand grows.

Featured image from La Nación, chart from TradingView

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Christian, a journalist and editor with leadership roles in Philippine and Canadian media, is fueled by his love for writing and cryptocurrency. Off-screen, he's a cook and cinephile who's constantly intrigued by the size of the universe.

The UAE is cementing its status as a global crypto capital as Coinbase and Ripple align publicly on its regulatory clarity, innovation-first mindset and growing influence over the future of digital assets.

New rules aim to improve transparency, boost investor protections and curb scams in the growing digital assets sector.

Photo: Chris Lawton

Key Takeaways

The UK Treasury is set to implement crypto regulations by 2027, bringing digital assets under the oversight of the Financial Conduct Authority.
New rules aim to increase transparency, consumer protection, and accountability in the crypto industry.

The UK Treasury is drafting new rules to regulate cryptocurrencies under legislation set to come into force in 2027, The Guardian reported Sunday.

The move would place digital asset firms under the supervision of the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), subjecting them to the same standards as other traditional financial products such as stocks and shares.

Regulators are seeking to address gaps in consumer protection as the market has expanded rapidly, especially with rising losses from crypto-related investment scams. The push is also part of the government’s effort to enhance industry transparency by providing clear compliance guidelines for crypto businesses.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves said incorporating crypto into the regulatory perimeter would provide certainty for firms while offering stronger protections for millions of consumers.

The Treasury stated that the changes would make the sector more transparent and support enforcement against fraud, sanctions breaches, and other financial crimes.

Separately, ministers are moving to ban crypto political donations, warning that their origin and ownership are difficult to verify.

Disclaimer

Vivopower struck a joint venture to gain indirect exposure to Ripple and XRP by sourcing up to $300 million in Ripple Labs shares, tapping strong South Korean investor demand while avoiding balance-sheet risk.

In December 2025, XRP, the cryptocurrency linked to Ripple Labs, is showing signs of potential recovery after enduring significant market struggles. Despite losing billions in value over recent months, recent positive developments from Ripple could halt this downturn. Analysts are eyeing these changes closely, as they could signify the beginning of a bullish trend for XRP.

Ripple’s recent announcements have sparked renewed interest among investors and market analysts. The company has been actively working on expanding its financial infrastructure to facilitate cross-border payments, which remains one of its core objectives. Ripple’s strategic partnerships and technological advancements aim to enhance its network’s efficiency and scalability, positioning it as a leader in the digital payment space.

The decline in XRP’s value has been a point of concern for many investors. The cryptocurrency, once a top performer, saw its market cap shrink as regulatory challenges and market volatility took their toll. However, the tide may be turning. Ripple’s commitment to overcoming these challenges has been evident in their efforts to resolve regulatory issues and expand their global reach.

One of the key factors contributing to XRP’s potential resurgence is Ripple’s legal victories that have brought a sense of optimism. In an ongoing battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Ripple has managed to secure several favorable rulings. The SEC’s lawsuit, initiated in December 2020, alleged that Ripple conducted an unregistered securities offering by selling XRP. This legal saga has been a significant headwind for the cryptocurrency, casting uncertainty over its future. However, the recent legal wins have lifted some of this cloud, providing a clearer path forward.

Moreover, Ripple has been proactive in securing partnerships with significant financial institutions worldwide. These collaborations aim to leverage Ripple’s blockchain technology for seamless international transactions, which could enhance XRP’s utility and demand. By focusing on real-world use cases, Ripple plans to drive broader adoption of its cryptocurrency and establish a foothold in the global financial system.

The bullish sentiment around XRP is further supported by technical indicators suggesting a potential upward trend. Chart analysts have identified patterns such as support levels and resistance breakouts, which could indicate a reversal in the downward trajectory. These patterns often serve as key signals for traders looking to capitalize on market movements.

However, it’s crucial to note the inherent risks and counterpoints to this optimism. Cryptocurrency markets remain highly volatile, with prices subject to rapid and unpredictable changes. The ongoing regulatory scrutiny of digital currencies adds another layer of uncertainty. Global financial watchdogs continue to debate and implement new policies, which could impact XRP’s value and Ripple’s operations. Additionally, the overall market sentiment towards cryptocurrencies can shift suddenly due to macroeconomic events or technological advancements.

Compared to other cryptocurrencies, XRP’s focus on being a bridge currency for cross-border transactions sets it apart. While Bitcoin is often viewed as digital gold and Ethereum as a platform for decentralized applications, XRP’s primary use case in facilitating quick and cost-effective international payments highlights its unique position in the crypto space. This focus aligns with the growing demand for efficient financial solutions in an increasingly interconnected global economy.

Historically, Ripple’s strategy has revolved around building a robust network of partners and clients. By collaborating with banks and financial institutions, Ripple aims to replace outdated systems with faster, cheaper, and more reliable solutions. This approach has garnered attention and support from industry leaders, potentially paving the way for XRP’s integration into mainstream financial systems.

In recent years, the cryptocurrency market has seen substantial growth, with the global market cap exceeding $2 trillion at its peak. This rapid expansion has attracted both retail and institutional investors, eager to capitalize on the potential returns offered by digital assets. Within this dynamic environment, Ripple’s efforts to address market challenges and secure its position could prove advantageous for XRP’s future.

While the current developments paint a promising picture for XRP, investors must remain vigilant. The cryptocurrency market is notoriously unpredictable, and potential regulatory changes or market disruptions could pose challenges. Nevertheless, Ripple’s ongoing efforts to innovate and expand its network, combined with favorable legal outcomes, provide a solid foundation for optimism.

In conclusion, XRP’s current trajectory suggests the possibility of a turnaround after a prolonged period of decline. Ripple’s strategic initiatives, legal successes, and technological advancements have positioned XRP for potential growth. However, investors should weigh these positive signals against the inherent risks associated with the volatile cryptocurrency landscape. As Ripple continues to advance its mission of transforming cross-border payments, the coming months could be pivotal in determining XRP’s long-term prospects.

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Leading cryptocurrencies fell on Sunday, while stock futures edged up, as investors brace for a barrage of key macroeconomic data this week.

CryptocurrencyGains +/-Price (Recorded at 8:20 p.m. ET)Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC)-2.02%$88,589.06Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH)
               -1.61%$3,073.08XRP (CRYPTO: XRP)                         -2.19%$1.98Solana (CRYPTO: SOL)                         -2.56%$130.07Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE)                         -2.70%$0.1352‘Extreme Fear’ ReturnsBitcoin dipped below $88,000 late evening but partially recovered, reversing much of its gains from the prior week.

Ethereum also dipped below $3,100, while trading volume surged 64% in the last 24 hours. XRP and Dogecoin were both down more than 2%.

Ethereum’s market dominance edged up to 12.3%, while Bitcoin held steady at 58.5% of the total.

Cryptocurrency liquidations hit $270 million over the last 24 hours, according to Coinglass, with $234 million in bullish long positions wiped out.

Curiously, Bitcoin's open interest increased 3.88% over the last 24 hours. A drop in price, coming alongside a rise in Open Interest, typically indicates new short positions are being opened.

The market sentiment shifted back to "Extreme Fear," according to the Crypto Fear and Greed Index.

Top Gainers (24 Hours) 

Cryptocurrency (Market Cap>$100 M)Gains +/-Price (Recorded at 8:20 p.m. ET)Midnight (NIGHT )   +38.92%    $0.06861Humanity Protocol (H)                   +10.23%      $0.06759Movement (MOVE )          +10.03%      $0.04251The global cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at $3.02 trillion, following a decrease of 1.80% in the last 24 hours.

Stock Futures RiseStock futures edged higher Sunday evening. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures rose 116 points, or 0.24%, as of 7:41 p.m. EDT.  Futures tied to the S&P 500 climbed 0.13%, while Nasdaq 100 Futures were unchanged at 25,470.50.

The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50–3.75% last week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also downplayed the prospect of a rate hike in the near future.

A slew of macroeconomic data is set to release this week, including the November consumer price index on Thursday and the November nonfarm payrolls data on Tuesday.

Bitcoin Needs To Defend This Support Or…Ali Martinez, a widely followed cryptocurrency analyst and trader, spotted a bearish flag pattern on Bitcoin's 4-hour chart, with $86,000 as key "line to defend."

"Lose it, and $70,000 comes into play," the analyst stated.

Michaël van de Poppe, another popular cryptocurrency commentator, expected Bitcoin's rebound on Monday following Sunday's dip.

"No guarantee, of course, however, I don’t think we’ll have a bearish week if this is just a sweep," Van De Poppe projected. "On the other hand, it needs to bounce fast to avoid a potential double bottom test at $80,000 with a slight support in between at $86,000."

Photo Courtesy: Marc Bruxelle on Shutterstock.com

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FlowDesk sees fading post-Fed demand and low leverage, while Glassnode data show digital asset treasuries quietly resuming bitcoin accumulation in a range-bound market.
Updated Dec 15, 2025, 2:31 a.m. Published Dec 15, 2025, 2:28 a.m.

Good Morning, Asia. Here's what's making news in the markets:Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk's Crypto Daybook Americas.

Bitcoin traded near $89,000 as Hong Kong started another work week after giving back last week’s post-Fed rally, with FlowDesk saying in a recent note that demand faded quickly once the 25 bps cut landed and liquidity thinned into year-end.

STORY CONTINUES BELOW

BTC and ETH retraced midweek highs while altcoins remained under pressure, reinforcing a market defined by macro caution and a lack of follow-through rather than outright risk aversion.

That hesitation at the surface contrasts with steadier positioning beneath it. In a Telegram note, FlowDesk said leverage remains low, volatility muted, and capital is shifting toward short-dated yield as counterparties lock in longer-term funding at compressed rates, signaling a focus on balance sheet optimization rather than directional bets.

Meanwhile, Glassnode observes that the range-bound BTC price means digital asset treasury companies are once again buying bitcoin. A pause in DATs making purchases is often cited as a reason why bitcoin remained stagnant throughout the fall.

For now, that mix of cautious trading and quiet balance sheet accumulation leaves bitcoin stuck in a broad range, with rallies fading but downside also proving limited.

Until leverage returns or macro conditions force treasury buyers to accelerate, price action is likely to remain subdued even as ownership continues to shift toward longer-term holders.

Market MovementBTC: Bitcoin hovered near $89,000 after giving back its post-Fed gains, with weak follow-through and low liquidity keeping price action range-bound.

ETH: Ether showed relative resilience, holding recent gains better than bitcoin as selective demand and lower selling pressure supported prices despite broader market caution.

Gold: Gold is holding near record highs around $4,300 per ounce as rate cuts, heavy global debt loads, and sustained central bank demand continue to underpin prices heading into year-end.

Nikkei 225: Asian markets opened lower as investors digested Wall Street’s pullback and adopted a cautious tone toward risk, with attention turning to China’s November activity data and Japan’s Tankan survey, which showed business sentiment among large manufacturers rising to a four-year high.

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Bitcoin price corrected gains and traded below the $90,000 support zone. BTC is now rising and might struggle to clear the $90,500 zone.

Bitcoin started a downside correction from the $92,500 zone.
The price is trading below $90,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $90,650 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
The pair might continue to move up if it settles above the $90,500 zone.

Bitcoin Price Aims Fresh Increase
Bitcoin price failed to gain strength for a move above the $92,000 and $92,500 levels. BTC started a downside correction and traded below the $90,500 support.

The price even spiked below the $88,000 support. However, the bulls were active near the $87,500 zone. A low was formed at $87,582 and the price is moving higher. There was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $93,561 swing high to the $87,582 low.

Bitcoin is now trading below $90,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If the bulls remain in action, the price could attempt another increase. Immediate resistance is near the $90,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $90,500 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $90,650 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
The next resistance could be $92,000. A close above the $92,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $92,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $93,200 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $94,000 and $94,500.

Another Decline In BTC?
If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $90,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $88,550 level. The first major support is near the $88,000 level.

The next support is now near the $87,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $86,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $85,000, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $88,550, followed by $88,000.

Major Resistance Levels – $90,000 and $90,500.

Italy’s Agnelli family, the owners of the popular Juventus Football Club, turned down a purchase offer from stablecoin issuer Tether (CRYPTO: USDT) on Saturday.

Juventus Owners Decline Purchase OfferJohn Elkann, CEO of the family’s holding company Exor NV (OTC:EXXRF), asserted in a video address, “Juventus, our history and our values are not for sale.” 

“Juventus has been part of my family for 102 years,” Elkann emphasized. “Over the course of a century, four generations have helped it grow.”

The rejection comes after Tether submitted a binding all-cash proposal to Exor to purchase its entire 65.4% stake in the historic soccer club. The offer, valued at $1.17 billion, was intended to be funded by Tether’s own capital.

Paolo Ardoino, Tether’s CEO of Italian descent and a passionate Juventus fan, said earlier that the club played a major role in shaping his early childhood.

The El Salvador-based cryptocurrency firm is known for USDT, the world’s most valuable stablecoin, with a market capitalization exceeding $186 billion as of this writing.

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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of Benzinga Neuro and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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Ethereum price started a fresh decline below $3,120. ETH is now consolidating and might soon aim to start a recovery wave above $3,200.

Ethereum started a downside correction from the $3,250 zone.
The price is trading below $3,200 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $3,175 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
The pair could continue to move down if it settles below the $3,050 zone.

Ethereum Price Dips Toward Support
Ethereum price failed to stay above $3,180 and started a fresh decline, like Bitcoin. ETH price dipped below $3,150 and $3,120 to enter a short-term bearish zone.

The bears even pushed the price toward $3,000. A low was formed at $3,026 and the price is now attempting to recover some losses. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3,273 swing high to the $3,026 low.

Ethereum price is now trading below $3,200 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. Besides, there is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $3,175 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD.

If there is another upward move, the price could face resistance near the $3,150 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3,273 swing high to the $3,026 low. The next key resistance is near the $3,180 level and the trend line.

Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com
The first major resistance is near the $3,200 level. A clear move above the $3,200 resistance might send the price toward the $3,250 resistance. An upside break above the $3,250 region might call for more gains in the coming days. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $3,320 resistance zone or even $3,400 in the near term.

Another Decline In ETH?
If Ethereum fails to clear the $3,200 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $3,080 level. The first major support sits near the $3,050 zone.

A clear move below the $3,050 support might push the price toward the $3,020 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $3,000 region. The next key support sits at $2,940.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now above the 50 zone.

Major Support Level – $3,080

Major Resistance Level – $3,200

The sell-off in artificial intelligence stocks continued unabated Friday stateside. Broadcom shares tumbled more than 11% as investors grew concerned over lower margins and uncertain deals. Names such as Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices and Oracle fell in sympathy, which caused major U.S. indexes to close lower.

It was a motif patterning the week. Even though the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.1% week on week on the back of outperformance by financial stocks, tech names dragged down the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite, which fell 0.6% and 1.6% respectively for the week.

That said, investors could have just been jittery amid the narrative of an apparent AI bubble, and were spooked by any sign of bad news. After all, Broadcom's earnings — as well as its guidance for the current quarter — breezed past expectations.

"Frankly we aren't sure what else one could desire as the company's AI story continues to not only overdeliver but is doing it at an accelerating rate," Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon, who has a "buy" rating on Broadcom, wrote in a Friday note.

Future prospects also look rosy, according to UBS. "We expect high profitability and the accelerating impact of the AI, power and resources, and longevity themes to drive 2026 performance," said strategist Sagar Khandelwal.

But in the near term, investors may still be flighty, unless something concretely reassuring, such as Oracle achieving positive cash flow, reassures them the snapping sound is just a twig in the forest.

What you need to know todayU.S. stocks dragged down by AI names. Major indexes fell Friday, a day after they hit record highs. The pan-European Stoxx 600 retreated almost 0.5%. Separately, the U.K. economy unexpectedly shrank 0.1% in the three months to October.

Oracle will finish data centers on time. The company issued its response to a Bloomberg report, which cited unnamed people, that Oracle will complete data centers for OpenAI in 2028 rather than 2027. "There have been no delays," Oracle said.

Coinbase to have an in-house prediction market. It will be powered be Kalshi, a source close to the matter told CNBC, and is a play to expand asset classes available on the cryptocurrency exchange.

The end of the 'Berkshire way'? Several aspects of Berkshire Hathaway's leadership transition are signaling that the conglomerate is drifting away from the famously decentralized "Berkshire way," CNBC's Alex Crippen writes.

[PRO] China's food security strategy. The spate between Beijing and Washington over soybean purchases has highlighted the evolution of China's domestic agriculture industry. Goldman Sachs thinks this is the best way to play the sector.

And finally...Global week ahead: Europe under fire

U.S. President Donald Trump's verdict on Europe: a "decaying" group of nations led by "weak" people. His criticism in a recent Politico interview adds to a tough period for the bloc, with challenges on multiple fronts testing European leaders in the final weeks of the year.

This week looks set to be critical, with a high-stakes summit in Brussels and the European Central Bank's final policy meeting of the year. Key topics for this week include defrosting frozen Russian assets for Ukraine aid; EU vs. U.S. in trade and tech, and updated economic figures at the ECB meeting.

— Leonie Kidd

This company's market value has swelled to trillions of dollars. Yet there could be more gains ahead.

If you want to see how the world changes over the years, just follow the companies that soar to the top of the stock market.

The Motley Fool listed the world's largest companies by market cap. As you can see, technology and communication services have a significant presence, which is probably not a surprise in an increasingly digital and connected world.

Over the past few years, Nvidia (NVDA 3.30%) has surged to the top of the list. The company has dominated the artificial intelligence (AI) industry as the leader in graphics processing units (GPUs), the chips used to train and operate AI models in data centers.

But is the tech company still a buy, despite its whopping $4.5 trillion market cap today? Here is what you need to know.

Image source: Nvidia.

Robust AI growth despite increased competition
Nvidia has enjoyed a generational investment cycle with AI. A relatively small handful of companies, known as AI hyperscalers, are investing billions of dollars in data centers to establish the infrastructure and computing capacity necessary to support the global rise of AI technology.

So far, Nvidia has enjoyed dominance as the gold standard for the chips used in these data centers. Some experts have pegged Nvidia's market share in this space as high as 92%. Naturally, such success attracts competition. Alphabet, one of Nvidia's customers, has developed its own chips and could potentially sell them to other companies, such as Meta Platforms, another one of Nvidia's clients.

While investors shouldn't welcome competition, the pie, thus far, seems big enough to feed multiple companies. Nvidia's revenue growth has surged on, and analysts have had to continually increase their estimates to keep up with Nvidia's business results.

NVDA Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts.

Nvidia is in the middle of its Blackwell chip cycle and plans to launch its successor, Rubin, in the coming months. Management touted that Blackwell and Rubin could combine for roughly $500 billion in potential sales through the end of next year. That represents significant growth still ahead for a company with $187 billion in revenue over the previous four quarters.

Nvidia must evolve beyond data centers
At some point, investors should anticipate that this investment cycle will level off. If the appropriate returns on these AI investments don't materialize soon enough, some of these companies will face enormous pressure to pull back their spending.

The reality is that Nvidia's long-term success may hinge on how well it identifies new AI growth opportunities beyond data centers. Two potential winners are humanoid robotics and autonomous vehicles. Both of these industries are in their early innings, but it seems like a matter of time before they hit their stride.

These technologies could depend on more localized computing. For instance, vehicles and robots may need AI chips onboard each unit in the field to ensure they can process their software and function in real time, with minimal lag.

Nvidia, which had the foresight to prepare for the AI opportunity before it was apparent, also recognizes the opportunities in these emerging industries. Nvidia has business units and ecosystems for developing both robotics and self-driving vehicles.

Today's Change

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-3.30

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-5.97

Current Price

$

174.96

Still, time will tell how well this translates to revenue and profits over the coming years. Nvidia potentially getting caught between the maturing of the data center boom and the acceleration of newer AI opportunities is arguably the most serious risk to the stock moving forward.

Is the stock a buy now?
The stock currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 45, which seems high, but analysts expect Nvidia to grow its earnings per share by an annualized rate of 35% over the next three to five years. That's a PEG ratio of 1.3, an attractive valuation for the growth you could see.

It's hard not to like Nvidia's chances to deliver as expected if the company actually sees Blackwell and Rubin turn in $500 billion in sales as predicted. Additionally, Nvidia's data center business has a floor, even as broader spending peaks. Companies will likely replace and upgrade chips as they age.

While Nvidia must eventually graduate to new AI opportunities outside the data center, investors are justified in buying the stock today, even after its ascension to its place as the world's largest company by market cap.

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SummaryThe VictoryShares Dividend Accelerator ETF earns a solid 'hold' rating due to its strong dividend growth and earnings risk features. This article demonstrates why it's superior to NOBL and SDY.In addition to better total returns, VSDA has excellent from a risk-adjusted returns and drawdowns perspective, with its ten-year net income stability as the likely source.However, VSDA is overweight Consumer Staples (33%) and underweight Technology (3%), which leads to concerns about its underlying holdings' earnings growth and momentum statistics.As a result, VSDA may struggle in this current market, but it's still a good solution for investors seeking a moderate 2.57% dividend yield and double-digit dividend growth.VSDA is a "hold," with a fundamental and performance analysis comparing it with NOBL, SDY, VIG, and SCHD to follow. Fasai Budkaew/iStock via Getty Images

Investment Thesis I last reviewed the VictoryShares Dividend Accelerator ETF (VSDA) on May 20, 2024, when I issued it a "hold" rating after assessing that its strategy and factor mix were superior to the ProShares S&P

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of VIG, SCHD either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG) today announced that Scott Leney has been appointed Regional President, AIG Asia Pacific. Mr. Leney will lead AIG's businesses in Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Vietnam, and the Philippines. Mr. Leney has more than three decades of experience leading global risk teams in the Asia Pacific region. He joins AIG from Everest Insurance, where he served as Head.

iRobot said on Sunday that it has started a pre-packaged Chapter 11 bankruptcy process in the district of Delaware.

By

PYMNTS
 | 
December 14, 2025

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PNC Financial Services has gotten regulatory approval to complete its acquisition of Colorado-based FirstBank.

The $4.1 billion deal has now received the go-ahead from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and the Colorado Division of Banking, PNC said in a Friday (Dec. 12) news release. 

“Final regulatory approval of this acquisition marks an important milestone for PNC as we continue to expand our coast-to-coast franchise and bring our full breadth of capabilities to more customers and communities,” said William S. Demchak, chairman and chief executive officer of PNC. “We look forward to welcoming FirstBank’s employees and clients to PNC.”

PNC said it expects the transaction to close on or about Jan. 5, 2026, pending the satisfaction of customary closing conditions. After closing, PNC will integrate FirstBank into its national platform, including its treasury management, payments, and digital banking capabilities. Full customer conversion is expected to occur in the middle of next year, the release added.

The bank first announced plans to acquire FirstBank, one of the country’s largest privately held lenders, in September. The acquisition “adds meaningful scale to PNC’s presence in the Rocky Mountain region and the Southwest, including Colorado and Arizona,” the release added.

During a quarterly earnings call in October, Demchak said that efforts by federal banking regulators to reduce regulatory burdens and focus on material risks will save banks a lot of full-time equivalents.

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Asked by analysts about the possible tailwind banks could realize from these regulatory changes, Demchak said that PNC had not really calculated the amount of time spent on regulators’ matters requiring attention (MRAs) but that he estimates it comes to “hundreds and hundreds” of full-time equivalents (FTEs) and half of the time he spends with the board.

In other banking regulation news, the OCC said last week it plans to continue its regulatory reforms in 2026, with a focus on liquidity risk management, Bank Secrecy Act/anti-money laundering (BSA/AML) compliance and community bank regulation.

Speaking at a meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council, Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan V. Gould said these planned reforms will mark a continuation of the work undertaken this year by the OCC, the council and others.

“Taken together, these actions represent an initial, but not sufficient, effort to undo discretionary regulatory and supervisory policy choices made after the 2008 crisis that eroded effective supervision and threatened the relevance of the banking system,” Gould said.

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Oil edged higher in early Asian trading amid mixed signals.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be taken as a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. Before buying or selling any stock, you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion or consult a financial advisor. Investing includes risks, including loss of principal.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

The stock market has been doing exceptionally well over the past three years, and a slowdown could be looming. Investors are growing concerned about high valuations due to tech.

Shares of Power Solutions International have crashed despite its potential to be a long-term winner from the AI megatrend.

Power Solutions International (PSIX 4.17%) caught the artificial intelligence (AI) tailwinds in early 2024 and rode them to stock price gains exceeding 5,950% by mid-September 2025. Since hitting that high, the stock price has fallen 47%, partially on market worries about the power system manufacturer's accounting practices.

Concerns about overstated revenue growth can undoubtedly shift the bullish narrative on the stock, but the company still has potential. For instance, insiders still own roughly 80% of the shares, indicating continued confidence from the people at the top. The company also continues to benefit from the artificial intelligence (AI) trend, and it continues to report outsized revenue growth. Add in that the stock doesn't have the type of lofty valuation that has commonly been a concern for AI stocks. Its price-to-earnings ratio is just 11.3.

Those reasons and more suggest the recent price drop may present a long-term buying opportunity. Let's take a closer look.

Image source: Getty Images.

How Power Solutions International fits into the AI industry
The company develops and produces power systems for industrial, energy, and transportation applications. While Power Solutions International expects demand from the industrial and transportation markets to remain flat, it projects significant growth in data center demand. Basically, as more AI data centers get built, Power Solutions International should experience rising demand for its wares.

In Q3, Power Solutions International's sales rose by 62% year over year to $203.8 million. Power systems sales increased by $85.3 million, while industrial and transportation end market sales decreased by $4.7 million and $2.6 million, respectively.

Management didn't provide exact breakdowns of how much each of these three segments earned in the quarter. However, an $85.3 million increase to existing power systems sales against a total of $203.8 million in revenue suggests that data centers now provide the bulk of Power Solutions International's top line.

Power Solutions will be in a good position to accelerate its revenue growth rates as more data centers are built. Furthermore, AI spending from big tech companies is also expected to rise in 2026, which should result in more demand for Power Solutions International's services.

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PSIX has a solid balance sheet
Power Solutions International has a robust balance sheet that includes $318.9 million in total current assets and $139.9 million in total current liabilities. That comes to a 2.28 quick ratio, which indicates Power Solutions International can easily cover its financial obligations. In general, a quick ratio of 1.0 or higher is considered good.

The company told investors that it has $49 million in cash and cash equivalents and $96.7 million in total debt. It has enough money to fund additional investments while minimizing interest payments.

Power Solutions International has a strong financial profile and is a key beneficiary of the hottest industry right now. AI still has a multiyear tailwind as autonomous vehicles, robots, AI agents, and cloud platforms demand more energy.

Addressing accounting concerns
The main question that has stopped Power Solutions International's stock from rallying further is whether its numbers are real or inflated. The concern isn't without precedent, as the company's former CEO was charged with accounting fraud back in 2019. The company reached a settlement with the SEC in 2020 that resulted in some of Power Solutions International's executives being fired.

The company released its third-quarter report in early November, and management forecasted 45% sales growth for the full year despite reporting sales growth figures of 62% in Q3 and 74% growth in Q4. Some investors are calling for an investigation because the growth figures don't seem to add up. Investors are wondering why sales have suddenly dropped significantly after two quarters of growth acceleration. It should also be noted that Power Solutions International reported 42% revenue growth in Q1, which is more in line with the full-year forecast.

It is a bit shocking that the company forecasted just 45% sales growth without much explanation. It has still achieved strong growth for the year, but investors who are on the fence may want to wait for 2026 guidance. If the company projects much lower growth rates for 2026, especially if AI stocks remain hot due to sizzling sales, the bears will become much louder.

Should investors buy the dip?
Despite the 47% drop from 52-week highs, shares still trade about 114% higher in 2025 and are up by more than 1,770% over the past three years. It has been a hot growth stock. Oddly, its P/E ratio now looks a bit too low given its positioning to benefit from the AI industry. Hyper growth is still on the menu as big tech companies ramp up their spending. The crash looks overdone at current levels.

It should be noted that insiders have sold far more shares than they have bought this year, but that could be a reflection of longtime shareholders finally taking some profits from the two-year-long share price acceleration. Insiders still own roughly 80% of its total shares.

The people who know the most about the company are still holding the majority of their shares. If accounting fraud was rampant, insider selling would likely be much higher, as it wouldn't make sense for people who are in the know to hold 80% of the stock.

Investors who are still wary can wait until the company releases Q4 earnings and offers 2026 guidance before deciding whether to buy in. Power Solution International's long-term growth prospects should become clearer by then. However, the company is in an excellent position to capitalize on rising AI demand and has a healthy balance sheet. If sales start strong in 2026 and guidance is good, investors will forget about the current drama.

Company's secured lender and key supplier, Picea, to acquire iRobot through court-supervised chapter 11 process

Positions iRobot to continue delivering trusted robotics and smart home devices to consumers worldwide

, /PRNewswire/ -- iRobot Corporation (NASDAQ: IRBT) ("iRobot" or the "Company"), a leader in consumer robots, today announced that it entered into a Restructuring Support Agreement (the "RSA") with its secured lender and its primary contract manufacturer, Shenzhen PICEA Robotics Co., Ltd. and Santrum Hong Kong Co., Limited, (collectively "Picea") for Picea to acquire iRobot through a court-supervised process. This agreement represents a critical step toward strengthening iRobot's financial foundation and positioning the Company for long-term growth and innovation.

To efficiently implement this transaction, iRobot and certain of its affiliates voluntarily commenced a pre-packaged chapter 11 process in the District of Delaware (the "Court"). The Company expects to complete the pre-packaged chapter 11 process by February 2026.    

Under the terms of the RSA, Picea will receive 100% of the equity interests in the Company, which will delever the Company's balance sheet and enable iRobot to continue operating in the ordinary course, pursue its product development roadmap, and maintain its global footprint. The transaction contemplated under the RSA provides a path forward to enhance financial stability, reduce debt, and support continued innovation across iRobot's leading portfolio of robotics and smart home devices.

"Today's announcement marks a pivotal milestone in securing iRobot's long-term future," said Gary Cohen, Chief Executive Officer, iRobot. "The transaction will strengthen our financial position and will help deliver continuity for our consumers, customers, and partners. Together, we will work to continue advancing the industry-leading Roomba robots and smart home technologies that have defined the iRobot brand for more than three decades. By combining iRobot's innovation, consumer-driven design, and R&D with Picea's history of innovation, manufacturing, and technical expertise, we believe iRobot will be well equipped to shape the next era of smart home robotics."

Continuity of Operations During Pre-Packaged Chapter 11 Process 
During the chapter 11 process, iRobot will continue operating in the ordinary course with no anticipated disruption to its app functionality, customer programs, global partners, supply chain relationships, or ongoing product support. To maintain business continuity, iRobot has filed a series of customary motions with the Court that will allow the Company to operate in the ordinary course, including to meet its commitments to employees and make timely payments to vendors and other creditors in full for amounts owed before, during, and after the court-supervised process.

Emerging Stronger Under New Ownership
Following Court approval of the transaction, iRobot expects to be better positioned to execute on its long-term innovation strategy under Picea's ownership. Upon completion of the transaction, iRobot will be a private company wholly owned by Picea, and its shares of common stock will no longer be listed on The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC or any other national stock exchange. The transaction is designed to deliver a more stable balance sheet and renewed ability to invest in its next generation of robotics, smart home innovations, and customer experience enhancements.

The Company expects that holders of the Company's common stock will not receive any equity of the reorganized Company, and that all issued and outstanding equity interests in the Company will be cancelled and holders of common stock will experience a total loss and not receive recovery on their investment, if the chapter 11 plan is approved by the Court.

As part of iRobot's chapter 11 cases, the Company's claims agent, Stretto, Inc., will distribute standard court notices to parties of interest as required by the Court. These notices are routine and do not require action from customers, partners, or employees. Publicly filed documents will be available free of charge on the claims agent's website at https://cases.stretto.com/iRobot. Stakeholders with questions may contact Stretto at (833) 228-5389 (U.S./Canada), +1 (949) 590-3576 (International), or via email at [email protected].

Advisors
Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP is serving as lead legal counsel, Young Conaway Stargatt & Taylor, LLP is serving as Delaware counsel, Alvarez & Marsal is serving as investment banker and financial advisor, and C Street Advisory Group is serving as strategic communications advisor. White & Case LLP is serving as legal counsel to Picea.

About iRobot
iRobot is a global consumer robot company that designs and builds thoughtful robots and intelligent home innovations that make life better. iRobot introduced the first Roomba robot vacuum in 2002. Today, iRobot is a global enterprise that has sold millions of robots worldwide. iRobot's product portfolio features technologies and advanced concepts in cleaning, mapping and navigation. Working from this portfolio, iRobot engineers are building robots and smart home devices to help consumers make their homes easier to maintain and healthier places to live. For more information about iRobot, please visit www.irobot.com.

About Picea
Picea is a global manufacturer and service provider of robotic vacuum cleaners, with research and development and manufacturing facilities in China and Vietnam. Picea has over 7,000 employees globally and serves a diverse, international customer base. Picea maintains long-term, stable partnerships with many leading global enterprises. To date, Picea holds over 1,300 intellectual property rights worldwide and has manufactured and sold more than 20 million robotic vacuum cleaners.

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
This communication includes "forward-looking statements," within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act and Section 21E of the Exchange Act, including, in particular, any statements about the Company's plans, strategies, objectives, initiatives, roadmap and prospects. The Company generally uses the words "may," "will," "could," "expect," "anticipate," "believe," "estimate," "plan," "intend," "aim" and similar expressions in this communication to identify forward-looking statements. The Company has based these forward-looking statements on its current views with respect to future events and financial performance. Actual results could differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements, include, but are not limited to, statements related to the chapter 11 process ("Chapter 11 Process"), including the Company's ability to complete the process on the terms contemplated by the RSA, on the timeline contemplated or at all, and the Company's ability to realize the intended benefits of the financial reorganization. The Company's actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements as a result of certain risks and other factors. Some of these risks and uncertainties include: risks and uncertainties relating to the Chapter 11 Process, including but not limited to the Company's ability to obtain Court approval with respect to motions in the Chapter 11 Process and approval of requisite stakeholders and confirmation by the Court of the chapter 11 plan, the effects of the Chapter 11 Process on the Company and its various constituents, the impact of Court rulings in the Chapter 11 Process, the ultimate outcome of the Chapter 11 Process in general, the length of time the Company will operate under the Chapter 11 Process, attendant risks associated with restrictions on the Company's ability to pursue its business strategies while the Chapter 11 Process is pending, risks associated with third-party motions in the Chapter 11 Process, the potential adverse effects of the Chapter 11 Process on the Company's liquidity, the likelihood of the cancellation of the Company's common stock in the Chapter 11 Process, uncertainty regarding the Company's ability to retain key personnel and management, whether the Company's vendors, suppliers and customers might lose confidence in the Company's ability to reorganize its capital structure successfully and may seek to establish alternative commercial relationships as a result of the Chapter 11 Process and uncertainty and continuing risks associated with the Company's ability to achieve its goals and continue as a going concern. Additional risks that could cause future results to differ from those expressed by any forward-looking statement are described in the Company's reports filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"), including in the section entitled "Risk Factors" in Part I, Item 1A of the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 28, 2024, the section entitled "Risk Factors" in Part II, Item 1A of the Company's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarters ended March 29, 2025, June 28, 2025 and September 27, 2025 and the Company's Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the SEC on December 1, 2025. You should not put undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. You should understand that many important factors, including those identified herein, could cause the Company's results to differ materially from those expressed or suggested in any forward-looking statement. Except as required by law, the Company does not undertake any obligation to update or revise these forward-looking statements to reflect new information or events or circumstances that occur after the date of this communication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events or otherwise.

SOURCE iRobot Corporation

Elon Musk says Tesla is now testing driverless robotaxis, without a human safety monitor, on Austin's streets

By

Lakshmi Varanasi

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A Tesla robotaxi drives down a street in Austin.

Joel Angel Juarez/REUTERS

2025-12-15T00:12:21.167Z

Tesla CEO Elon Musk says the company is now testing its robotaxi without human monitors in Austin.
An X user posted a video on Sunday that appeared to show a robotaxi driving with no one inside.
Musk had earlier said Tesla would remove safety monitors by the end of the year.

An X user recorded a Tesla Model Y driving through Austin's streets on Sunday that appears to show no one, not even a safety monitor, inside.

Since Tesla launched its robotaxi in Austin in June, the driverless cars have always included a human in the passenger seat.

The video generated a fair amount of excitement online from Tesla watchers, some of whom immediately went to their app to order a robotaxi to see whether it would include a safety monitor (they did).

What we learned from the Tesla 'company update'

Tesla CEO Elon Musk later said on Sunday that the company is now testing driverless taxis without human safety operators, though it appears not yet on actual paying customers.

"Testing is underway with no occupants in the car," Musk wrote in response to the X user who posted the original video.

Tesla itself responded to the video with "Just saying."

Tesla's AI chief, Ashok Elluswamy, also responded. "And so it begins!" he wrote on X on Sunday.

A driverless Tesla Robotaxi was spotted on the roads of Austin, Texas today.No one in the car. No safety driver.Fully autonomous.This is actually happening. pic.twitter.com/MSmRaeyJwj

— DogeDesigner (@cb_doge) December 14, 2025
According to Robotaxi Tracker — run by Austin-based robotaxi watcher Ethan McKenna — there are 31 active vehicles in Austin, up from 29 in November. Speaking on the "All-In" podcast in October, Musk said that Tesla was aiming to increase its robotaxi fleet to 500 cars in Austin by the end of the year.

Musk said in a video call at an xAI "hackathon" event last week that Tesla would remove human safety monitors from its robotaxi cars by the end of the year, according to Teslarati, a news site focused on Musk-run companies.

"There will be Tesla robotaxis operating in Austin with no one in them, not even anyone in the passenger seat, in about three weeks," Musk said, the outlet reported.

When Business Insider tested a robotaxi in Austin in July, it required multiple interventions from the safety monitor in the passenger seat, including at one point when the car went the wrong way on a one-way street.

Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.

Elon Musk

Tesla

Read next

The cannabis business might soon be a lot more lucrative.

Shares of Tilray Brands (TLRY +44.13%) surged 65% this past week, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence. Investors are hopeful that the Trump administration will move to lessen costly regulations on the beleaguered cannabis industry.

Image source: Getty Images.

A highly anticipated executive order
President Donald Trump is reportedly contemplating a reclassification of marijuana from a Schedule I drug to a Schedule III drug, according to The Washington Post. A decision could come as soon as Monday, Dec. 15.

The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) defines Schedule I drugs as "drugs with no currently accepted medical use and a high potential for abuse." Examples include ecstasy and heroin. Schedule III drugs, in contrast, have "moderate to low potential for physical and psychological dependence." Examples include Tylenol with codeine and testosterone.

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Fewer regulations might mean more profits for pot producers
A rescheduling of marijuana could make it easier for cannabis companies to access banking and other traditional financial services. It could also allow marijuana producers to claim federal tax deductions for a host of conventional business expenses that they currently cannot deduct. All of which would likely help boost after-tax profits for Tilray and other cannabis suppliers.

Joe Tenebruso has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Tilray Brands. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Investors hoping BigBear.ai will go on a Palantir-like run could be better served by keeping it simple.

BigBear.ai (BBAI 5.49%) stock has attracted attention as a potentially explosive play in the defense artificial intelligence (AI) space. With the stock trading at under $7 per share as of this writing, BigBear.ai's low pure-dollar price has also inspired hopes for a potentially massive valuation run.

Bulls have pointed to the incredible success of Palantir (PLTR 2.12%) as a model for how BigBear.ai's stock trajectory could play out. But instead of investing in BigBear.ai in hopes of scoring a Palantir-like run, I think long-term investors will be much better served by simply investing in Palantir.

Image source: Getty Images.

Palantir is risky but still looks like a better buy than BigBear.ai
BigBear.ai is currently valued at approximately 22 times this year's expected sales. Meanwhile, Palantir trades at a whopping 101 times this year's projected forward revenue.

Sporting a highly growth-dependent price-to-sales multiple and trading at 258 times this year's expected adjusted earnings, Palantir is definitely a high-risk stock that carries an extremely growth-dependent valuation. On the other hand, the company has a stellar margin picture -- and its forefront position in artificial intelligence software still leaves the door open for a massive for long-term expansion.

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Despite a very favorable backdrop for defense AI spending, BigBear.ai's sales have collapsed recently. Revenue declined 20% year over year to land at $33.1 million in the third quarter, and the business posted a gross margin of just 22.4% in the period. For a business focused on software and services, BigBear.ai's gross margin is alarmingly low.

For comparison, Palantir's overall revenue surged 63% higher year over year to reach $1.18 billion. Meanwhile, Palantir's sales to U.S. government customers grew 52% year over year to reach $486 million and the company posted a gross margin north of 82% last quarter amid rapid business expansion.

While defense AI spending trends will create favorable backdrops for multiple companies, BigBear.ai is also competing with Palantir. Thus far, there's not much evidence that the smaller defense AI player has been delivering new tech and service capabilities that key military customers view as essential for next-gen defense initiatives.

BigBear.ai hasn't been successful in delivering revenue growth through the signing of new contracts with government customers lately. The company's acquisition of Ask Sage has given some investors hope that the integration will pave the way for more government contract wins and new momentum in the private sector, but it's a risky bet.

Meanwhile, Palantir has been one of the biggest winners in the artificial intelligence market -- and its wins have stemmed from real performance advantages offered by its technologies. In the intensely competitive defense-AI space, Palantir stock continues to look like a better buy than BigBear.