Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

According to Butler’s monitoring, Papertrade was exploited by an address to earn around $1.28 million in profits just roughly 8 hours after its launch. The same trader has accumulated over $13 million in historical profits on Hyperliquid, with a trading volume of $14 billion. Since Papertrade prices its trades based on Hyperliquid’s real-time ETH price, the attacker repeatedly opened large long and short positions on Papertrade while trading ETH on Hyperliquid, briefly pushing prices up or down before closing positions for gains. Data shows the trader executed a total of 305 trades, 296 of which were profitable, giving a win rate of approximately 97%. The average holding time was just 98 seconds, with cumulative trading profits peaking at $1.73 million. However, the attacker later opened 30 short positions on Papertrade at $2507.35, with a notional value of around $297 million, and sold roughly 6,600 ETH on Hyperliquid to drive the price down to $2504.4, but this attempt to close the positions failed. Afterward, ETH’s price rose to $2509.95, triggering full liquidation of the 30 short positions, resulting in a loss of roughly $450,000. The attacker ultimately netted approximately $1.28 million in profits. The Papertrade team may have curbed the attack by blocking the attacker’s position closures, but this is only speculation and has not been confirmed. Analysts noted that if the platform continues to directly use Hyperliquid’s BBO (Best Bid Offer) as its pricing basis, underlying manipulation risks will remain. They recommend adopting Hyperliquid’s official oracle price, which aggregates quotes from multiple trading platforms, to reduce risks from manipulation of a single order book.

Relevant content

STRK's 24-hour price gain has widened to 55%, briefly surging past $0.12.

According to HTX market data, STRK (Starknet) has extended its 24-hour gain to 55%, briefly breaking above $0.12 and currently trading at $0.11, leading the altcoin market rally. On the news front, StarkWare CEO Eli Ben-Sasson stated at Token2049 and in subsequent remarks that blockchains need post-quantum readiness and cryptographic agility to counter threats from quantum computing and AI acceleration. He clarified that Starknet is actively considering multiple options, including separating from Ethereum to become an independent Layer 1 (L1) chain, so as to independently control the pace of security migration, with the goal of achieving full quantum resistance by 2027 — earlier than Ethereum’s planned timeline. This "shift to L1 + quantum resistance" narrative quickly became a market focus, driving STRK’s consecutive sharp rally. On the technical and ecosystem front, the v0.14.4 mainnet launched on October 5, expanding SNIP-36 single-proof capacity to approximately 1.1 billion L2 gas, enabling proof verification for larger-scale off-chain computations; the strkBTC incentive program went live on October 2 (with the first 100 bridged BTC covering bridging fees and receiving weekly airdrops), further strengthening the Bitcoin-related narrative.

28 minutes ago

Ledger-linked attackers deposited 2,990 ETH into Tornado Cash, then bridged the funds to ZEC via NEAR Intents.

On-chain detective Specter revealed in his personal channel that an attacker address, implanted via unauthorized hardware into a Ledger hardware wallet linked to CryptoBilis, deposited 2,990 ETH (valued at approximately $7.45 million) to Tornado Cash between October 9 and 10. Monitoring data shows the attacker had earlier dispersed the funds to 14 addresses, then cross-chain converted the funds to the ZEC network via NEAR Intents for further privacy processing. Signs of address correlation were observed during the fund transfers: some withdrawal transactions reused the wallet addresses used for prior deposits, while other withdrawals were initiated by wallets linked to the wallet that paid gas fees during the theft, enabling researchers to trace the fund flow.

28 minutes ago

List of High-Risk Ledger Resellers Disclosed, Regional Supply Chain Risks Draw Attention After CryptoBilis Incident

After hardware wallet manufacturer Ledger confirmed that devices sold by its Southeast Asian distributor CryptoBilis contained unauthorized hardware implants, analyst Darkfost has compiled a "Ledger Dealers to Watch" list, identifying nearby merchants whose supply chains may also be impacted, including Lazada, Shopee, Tokopedia, Bhinnekon, and Metapod. The list marks CryptoBilis as suspended, while the risk exposure of other dealers remains unknown. Darkfost stressed this is speculative, not confirmed, but advised users who purchased Ledger devices from these dealers in the past six months to transfer their assets to secure locations before the issue is resolved. Ledger previously stated the incident appears limited to this single distributor and its local market, adding its own infrastructure, systems, and services were not breached, and investigations are ongoing. Darkfost also recommended users willing to inspect their devices themselves refer to disassembly guides to verify if the hardware has been tampered with.

28 minutes ago

Ledger Confirms Over $86 Million in Crypto Assets Lost in Hardware Supply Chain Attack Incident

Hardware wallet manufacturer Ledger confirmed today that unauthorized hardware implant attacks may have caused affected users to lose more than $86 million in crypto assets. Earlier, Ledger verified that affected user devices contained unauthorized hardware implants, prompting distributor CryptoBilis to suspend sales of its inventory.

28 minutes ago

Next Week's Macro Outlook: CPI Data Tests Fed’s Stance on Pausing Rate Hikes, IMF’s Walsh Speech Takes Center Stage

Next week, global markets will focus on the U.S. September CPI data to assess whether the Federal Reserve maintains its "discontinuous rate hike" stance. While most Fed officials believe another rate hike may be possible this year, recent comments indicate no urgency to act at consecutive meetings. Market pricing for a rate hike on October 28 has fallen to around 19%, while a December rate hike is fully priced in. Geopolitically, the stalemate between the U.S. and Iran and escalating tensions in Yemen continue to support oil risk premiums, with the U.S.-Russia diesel supply deal having limited short-term impact. Below is a key event calendar: Tuesday: Speech by Cleveland Fed President Patrick Harker; Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks at the India Bloomberg New Economy Forum; U.S. September NFIB Small Business Confidence Index, ADP employment change for the week ending September 26, September existing home sales annualized total; OPEC releases its monthly oil market report. Wednesday: U.S. September CPI and core CPI; Fed officials’ pre-Brown Book comments; Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman deliver speeches; IEA releases its monthly oil market report. Thursday: U.S. API crude oil inventories for the week ending October 9; U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending October 10, September retail sales, September PPI and core PPI, October New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing indexes; G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting. Friday: Fed Chair Jerome Powell attends the IMF Annual Meeting in Bangkok and holds a fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva; Cleveland Fed President Patrick Harker speaks again; U.S. September Import Price Index, industrial production; U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending October 9.

28 minutes ago

A crypto whale takes a long position on BTC, with unrealized profit exceeding $10 million.

According to TradingBeats monitoring, Hyperliquid whale address 0x8ea8…edbc holds 1,000 BTC long positions, with the position valued at approximately $83.04 million. The address uses 3x full leverage, with an average entry price of around $72,771, current unrealized profit of roughly $10.27 million, and a position return rate of about 37.1%. The address already held around 800 BTC long positions as early as May 11, with an unrealized profit of approximately $5.3 million at that time, before increasing the position size to 1,000 BTC. As of press time, the BTC contract mark price is approximately $83,037, some 14.1% higher than the address’s average entry price. The estimated liquidation price for the position is around $50,382, roughly 39.3% lower than the mark price.

28 minutes ago

7h00 ▪ 4 min read ▪ by Fenelon L.

Summarize this article with:

Strive’s SATA program reportedly generated about 55 million dollars this week, enough to buy nearly 638 bitcoins. But this financing capacity depends directly on the preferred stock price. From Wednesday, the stock fell below 100 dollars, preventing the company from continuing its issuances. A limit that recalls the risks of the Strategy-inspired model.

In brief The SATA program reportedly brought in 55 million dollars, the equivalent of 638 bitcoins, according to trackers. The stock closed below its nominal value of 100 dollars for three sessions out of five, slowing new issuances. As of October 2, Strive held 29,462 bitcoins, according to its latest official filing, which also reports 1,304,902 additional preferred shares. Financing stopped below 100 dollars The mechanism relies on a simple logic. Strive, which held 27,462 bitcoins at the end of September, gradually sells SATA preferred shares as part of an “at-the-market” (ATM) program. The company then uses the funds raised to strengthen its bitcoin reserve.

However, this device imposes a condition: the stock must remain above its nominal value of 100 dollars. Yet, this week, SATA only exceeded this threshold on Monday and Tuesday. From Wednesday onward, the price dropped below, thus cutting the main source of financing for purchases.

According to trackers, Strive still raised about 55 million dollars over the week, enough to acquire nearly 638 bitcoins. This estimate is based on trades executed above par and on a ratio calculated from previous company statements. With bitcoin around 82,800 dollars Friday, this amount matches the announced magnitude.

Strive takes the lead over Strategy Michael Saylor popularized this strategy at Strategy thanks to STRC, its perpetual preferred variable rate share. Strive adopts the same principle with SATA, but on a smaller scale.

In its October 5 filing with the SEC, Strive indicates having issued 1,304,902 additional preferred shares between September 25 and October 2. Their nominal value thus exceeds 130 million dollars. 

Over the same period, Strategy sold no STRC shares and financed the purchase of 334 bitcoins with common shares, bringing its reserve to 848,000 units. However, Saylor sees Strive as an ally rather than a rival.

Dividends to finance over time This strategy nevertheless has a cost. Each SATA issuance brings immediate funds but also increases the dividends that Strive will have to pay in the future. As of September 30, the company estimated its annualized obligations at 168.2 million dollars, for 1.294 billion dollars of shares issued at par.

Moreover, its portfolio remains exposed to bitcoin fluctuations. As of September 30, Strive held 28,000 BTC purchased at an average price of 90,170 dollars, while their market value reached about 2.34 billion dollars. Bitcoin was then trading below this acquisition cost. The 2,000 bitcoins bought the following week were acquired at about 84,422 dollars each.

The next official filing will be awaited to know the exact balance of the week. Meanwhile, the 638 bitcoins remain an estimate. One thing is certain: Strive’s model works as long as investors accept to buy SATA above its nominal value.

Maximize your Cointribune experience with our "Read to Earn" program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.

Join the program

A

A

Lien copié

Fenelon L.

Passionné par le Bitcoin, j'aime explorer les méandres de la blockchain et des cryptos et je partage mes découvertes avec la communauté. Mon rêve est de vivre dans un monde où la vie privée et la liberté financière sont garanties pour tous, et je crois fermement que Bitcoin est l'outil qui peut rendre cela possible.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.

BNY Mellon has explicitly listed XRP as part of its global payments strategy in a recent stablecoin publication, drawing significant attention from digital asset researchers and the wider crypto community.

BNY Mellon’s approach to corporate paymentsIn a section titled “Ripple and BNY: Speeding Up Cross-Border Payments With Stablecoins,” the publication outlines collaborations between BNY Mellon and Ripple focused on digital assets. The document states that the goal is to support corporate treasuries in moving funds around the clock and in real time using both stablecoins and digital assets such as XRP.

Crypto researcher SMQKE highlighted the relevance of XRP’s mention in the report, emphasizing its role in BNY Mellon’s global payments framework and bringing the reference to the attention of X (formerly Twitter) users. He cited the text, noting how it connects XRP to BNY Mellon’s broader payments ambitions.

A recent BNY Mellon report specifies that the bank aims to help corporate treasuries move money “24/7/365, in real time, through stablecoins and digital assets like XRP.”

BNY Mellon, founded in 1784, is one of the world’s oldest and largest financial institutions, specializing in investment services and asset management. Its foray into digital assets signals the increasing role of blockchain technology in traditional banking operations.

Details on the Ripple partnership and RLUSD stablecoinThe publication confirms that BNY Mellon became the primary reserve custodian for Ripple USD (RLUSD), a stablecoin launched in July 2025 and designed primarily for corporate and institutional payments. RLUSD aims to offer greater speed, lower costs, and improved efficiency for cross-border transactions.

In October 2025, Ripple reportedly acquired a treasury management system from GTreasury to further streamline corporate money movement across digital assets, including RLUSD and XRP. Ripple’s Senior Vice President of Stablecoins, Jack McDonald, underlined the intent to strengthen, rather than replace, the connection between corporations and banks, highlighting BNY Mellon’s central role.

The report stresses the importance of interoperability between tokenized deposits and stablecoins, viewing it as crucial for deploying these solutions at scale.

Mini dictionary: RLUSD — Ripple USD is a Ripple-issued stablecoin primarily designed for corporate treasury and large-scale financial transactions, aiming to facilitate faster and more efficient cross-border settlements.

XRP’s position in BNY Mellon’s payments planWhile XRP is directly referenced as part of BNY Mellon’s payments infrastructure, the publication does not specify that the bank currently uses XRP for all payment transactions. Community members such as Zoid pointed out that necessary infrastructure might already be in place, but activation could depend on future developments or evolving demand.

Some observers highlight that although BNY Mellon includes XRP in its ecosystem, whether XRP will be actively used for direct transactions or exist alongside stablecoins remains uncertain.

David Arnal, another industry commentator, noted that XRP’s explicit mention by BNY Mellon is notable but does not guarantee that the bank will conduct payments directly with XRP rather than listing it as an available option.

Despite these uncertainties, XRP’s placement within the document has sparked renewed interest regarding its potential role in the future of institutional payments.

Vitalik Buterin thinks artificial intelligence just bought Ethereum a couple of decades. Speaking at the Network State Conference 2026 in Singapore, the Ethereum co-founder said AI is speeding up work on the network’s protocol upgrades by a dramatic margin.

Without it, he suggested, some of the roadmap’s goals could have taken until 2040 or even 2050 to reach.

What Buterin actually said The interview took place on October 9, 2026, and was reported the following day. Buterin’s focus was the Lean Roadmap, Ethereum’s plan to overhaul its core protocol.

His central claim: AI is now handling a substantial share of the research and coding that the roadmap requires. That includes some of the hardest work on the list.

The standout example is formal verification written in Lean 4. Lean 4 is a programming language and proof assistant used to write mathematical proofs that a computer can check line by line.

According to the research summary, AI’s contribution in Lean 4 reduces the need for people to manually audit huge volumes of code.

Advertisement

The architecture AI is helping build The roadmap Buterin described is not a minor tune-up. Ethereum is moving toward an architecture built around recursive STARKs, automated formal verification and stronger quantum resistance.

A quick translation of those terms. STARKs are cryptographic proofs that let one party prove a computation was done correctly without everyone redoing it, and recursive STARKs are proofs that can verify other proofs. Quantum resistance refers to protecting the network against future quantum computers that could break today’s cryptography.

That is where AI comes in, according to Buterin. The research summary describes AI as becoming a crucial enabler as Ethereum heads toward this more sophisticated design.

Hegota and the end of “normal” forks The next milestone on the calendar is the Hegota upgrade, which is expected around 2027. It is described as the last “normal” fork in Ethereum’s history.

After that, the focus is expected to tilt toward advanced cryptographic methods and formal verification, with AI integration playing a central role.

There is already some evidence that AI can do meaningful protocol work. In early 2026, experiments produced a prototype Ethereum client covering approximately 65 roadmap items. That prototype also synchronized with the Ethereum mainnet.

Buterin’s mixed feelings about AI This is not the first time Buterin has weighed in on AI this year. Earlier in 2026, he discussed what the research summary calls AI’s dual role in crypto development.

On one side, AI can accelerate technical work. On the other, it raises security concerns about vulnerabilities, including the possibility that the same tools could help attackers find weaknesses faster.

That tension makes the formal verification angle especially interesting. If AI can generate code quickly, mathematically proving that code is correct becomes a natural safeguard against the risks AI itself introduces.

What this means for Ethereum and its stakeholders For developers, the clearest implication is a changing job description. If AI handles more of the proof-writing and code auditing, core researchers may spend more time on design decisions and less on manual verification.

Buterin’s 2040 to 2050 framing suggests he sees AI as the difference between someday and this decade.

The security question also has not gone away. Leaning on AI for critical infrastructure code raises the stakes on getting verification right, since a subtle error in a widely used blockchain can be expensive.

What to watch next: progress on Hegota, further results from AI-built client experiments, and how much of the Lean Roadmap’s formal verification ends up being machine-generated.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

Dogecoin (DOGE) had a sharp drop in spot flows this past week as the broader crypto market pulled back.

Dogecoin registered a 7-day spot net flow percentage of -599.50%, with spot outflows exceeding inflows, data from CoinGlass showed. The last seven days' spot inflows were $480.96 million and spot outflows were $538.16 million.

A drop in spot flow, especially for exchanges, could indicate a dearth of coins being deposited on trading venues. On the other hand, an increase in spot outflows might suggest investors are withdrawing their coins into cold storage, a bullish signal.

HOT Stories

Owing to a weeklong drop in crypto prices, this might be the case as whales or large holders seek to buy at a discount.

You Might Also Like

Dogecoin fell for four days at a stretch amid a forced unwind following a leverage buildup in the broader market. Altcoins had a strong run into late September with significant leverage building up along the way.

Dogecoin sharply fell to a low of $0.081 on October 8 as investors weighed macroeconomic concerns before rebounding.

Expectations for Q4 recovery remainOn the one-year anniversary of the 10/10 flash crash, which resulted in the largest liquidation event in crypto history, Dogecoin is currently trading in the green at $0.086.

You Might Also Like

After registering a death cross on the three-hour chart, Dogecoin price returned to the green on the daily chart and brought its short-term price action back into focus.

Dogecoin was relatively flat during Q3 2026 with a small rally in August, and traders are now looking toward Q4 2026 for a possible turnaround.

Headwinds for DOGE included Bitwise's decision in September to sunset its Dogecoin ETF (BWOW) less than a year after launch, citing sub-scale institutional demand. Trading for the fund concludes in October 2026.

Dogecoin's poor performance in Q3 was further compounded by Hyperliquid overtaking DOGE in late Q2 and the wider crypto industry's tokenomics moving toward revenue-driven models.

DOGE is the world's 11th largest cryptocurrency with a market cap of $14.8 billion, just ahead of Zcash.

Altcoins

11 October 2026 | 11:32 Most perpetuals trades end with a simple result: the trader wins or loses. Papertrade adds a second outcome by issuing PAPER after eligible losses, tying its token model directly to the way its market settles trades.

Key Takeaways Eligible trading losses may trigger PAPER issuance under the protocol’s emission rules. PAPER does not replace the USDC that was lost on the trade. The same loss-funded pool is responsible for paying traders who win. The model needs both reliable winner payouts and a sustainable reason to hold PAPER. A perpetuals market built around one shared pool Papertrade is a perpetuals venue built on Hyperliquid infrastructure. Traders take leveraged positions on crypto prices without buying the underlying asset, while the platform’s settlement model relies on a shared USDC reserve called the Martingaler LP.

Like other leveraged perpetuals, the product can magnify a small price move, accumulate funding costs and liquidate an underfunded position. These are the mechanics involved in trading crypto with leverage. Papertrade adds a separate token outcome: an eligible loss may trigger the issuance of PAPER.

The USDC loss remains real. PAPER gives the trader a separate asset whose eventual value depends on the protocol’s activity, token supply, demand and the terms available to holders.

What a $100 loss leaves behind

If a trader loses $100, the USDC loss can help replenish the shared Martingaler LP. PAPER may then be issued according to the protocol’s live emission rules. The token does not restore the $100; it gives the trader a separate asset with an uncertain future value.

What PAPER leaves behind after a loss That difference is important because a token reward can be mistaken for compensation. It is better understood as a new position created after the trade has already closed. Its price may rise, fall or remain illiquid, and a trader who sells it immediately could receive far less than the USDC lost.

Papertrade’s materials describe PAPER staking as a route through which holders may participate in protocol revenue. Whether that creates durable value depends on activity, fees, token issuance, market demand and the live terms of the staking system. Traders should check the current documentation and contracts for reward formulas, transferability and restrictions before relying on any promotional description.

The model therefore places two questions in front of a losing trader. First, how much USDC could be lost through leverage? Second, does holding the PAPER received afterward make economic sense once dilution, liquidity and the protocol’s revenue are considered?

The same pool must pay the traders who win PAPER’s story cannot be separated from the pool behind the market. The USDC that enters after losses helps support the liquidity needed to settle winning positions, connecting the token mechanism to the platform’s ability to pay traders.

Papertrade’s whitepaper describes a queue for situations in which the pool does not have enough immediately available USDC to cover every profitable withdrawal. In that scenario, a winning trader may need to wait for the pool to receive further liquidity. Bankless described the same mechanism at launch as a first-in, first-out payout process.

Such a queue is a disclosed part of the proposed design, not proof that payouts will fail. It does mean that the market should be judged by its settlement record as well as its trading interface. A perpetuals venue is only as useful as its ability to deliver gains when traders are entitled to withdraw them.

A loss token can influence risk-taking The token may change how some traders approach a risky position. A person considering a highly leveraged trade could view PAPER as a possible residual benefit after a loss, particularly if they expect the protocol to grow and the token to gain demand.

That expectation can be dangerous if it becomes a reason to take a position that would otherwise be too large. PAPER is not a hedge with a defined payout, and it cannot reduce the USDC loss at the moment a liquidation or losing close occurs. Its future value must be weighed against the immediate, known cost of the trade.

There is also a supply question. Issuing more tokens after more losses may broaden participation, yet it can also dilute existing holders if protocol revenue and demand do not expand at a comparable pace. The model needs a credible connection between trading activity, settlement liquidity and value for PAPER holders; issuing tokens alone cannot create that connection.

Four places where Papertrade has to deliver First test

Can winners withdraw USDC?

The shared pool needs enough liquidity to meet profitable traders’ withdrawal claims without a prolonged queue.

Second test

Does PAPER have a reason to be held?

Its supply needs to stay connected to real demand, staking participation and protocol revenue rather than issuance alone.

Third test

How does the pool behave under pressure?

A market with more winning positions than losses could expose whether the payout mechanism works during an unfavourable trading period.

Fourth test

What do losing traders do with PAPER?

Consistent holding or staking would show a different kind of demand from immediate selling after each loss.

These measures offer a more useful view of Papertrade than token price alone. A rising PAPER price would not prove that the payout mechanism is robust, while a short period of smooth withdrawals would not settle the longer-term question of token supply and demand.

The model has two promises to meet Papertrade is trying to turn a familiar frustration in leveraged trading into part of its economic design. Instead of leaving every losing trader with only a reduced balance, it gives eligible participants a token that may have value if the venue builds lasting activity and revenue.

The approach can only prove itself if two outcomes hold together over time: profitable traders can access their USDC when due, and PAPER develops an economic role that does not rely on an ever-expanding flow of new losing trades. Until that evidence exists, PAPER should be treated as a speculative token received after a loss, rather than a recovery guarantee.

This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Perpetual futures and leveraged trading carry a high risk of loss. Product terms, token mechanics and eligibility rules may change.

Author

Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem. To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem. His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.

Shares of membership-based retailer Costco Wholesale (COST -0.10%) closed at a record $1,094.32 on May 19. As I write, they trade near $942, about 14% below that peak.

Drops like this aren't new to Costco, and they've usually worked out for buyers. Counting from 2010 and using closing prices adjusted for dividends, Costco shares had fallen at least 14% from a record close nine times before this latest slide. A year after each drop first hit 14%, the stock was higher in seven of those.

Costco's latest sales update might give buyers a new reason to look, too. On Wednesday, Oct. 7, the retailer said that its comparable sales excluding gas and currency climbed 7.6% in September, up from 5.4% in August. And this eases the main worry I had about the business a week ago.

Image source: The Motley Fool. Image source: The Motley Fool.

Past dips have mostly paid offFor all nine drops, the median return a year after the stock first stood 14% below its record was around 21%, and the best, in 2021, was about 58%.

The two exceptions both came in 2022. A year after the stock's January and May drops, shares were down around 1% and 3%, respectively.

And it wasn't because the company stumbled. In fiscal 2022, which ended Aug. 28, 2022, Costco's comparable sales excluding gas and currency climbed around 11%, and its earnings per share grew about 17%. The stock fell anyway. In other words, its price-to-earnings ratio shrank.

It's worth noting that the record before 2010 is weaker. From 2000 through 2009, seven drops this big left the stock higher a year later just twice, in a stretch that included the dot-com bust and the 2008 financial crisis.

Did September stop the slowdown?Costco's September report covered the five weeks ending Oct. 4, 2026, which started its fiscal 2027. Net sales climbed 13% year over year to around $30 billion.

But the number I follow most closely is comparable sales excluding gas and currency. It covers sales at warehouses and online businesses operating for over a year and removes swings in fuel prices and exchange rates, giving a clearer idea of how much more members are buying. That measure rose 7.6% in September, its fastest rate since May's 8% gain. In between, it slowed every month, slipping to 5.4% in August after 7% in June and 6.6% in July.

Some of the pickup comes from Labor Day, which was a week later than in 2025. Costco said the timing added a bit over 0.5 percentage points to September's comparable sales, after costing August a little less than 0.75 points. But even with both months adjusted for the holiday, the underlying rate rose from around 6% to about 7%.

The U.S. business did even better, with adjusted comparable sales up 8% in September against 5.6% in August. And the U.S. rise came on top of 5% adjusted growth in September 2025, so this wasn't just an easy comparison.

In my Oct. 4 piece, I wrote a September result around 7% might mean the slowdown had leveled off. It beat that.

Today's price looks more like 2022Costco's earnings per share grew 14% in fiscal 2026 (ended Aug. 30, 2026) to $20.76. At roughly $942, shares cost about 45 times those earnings.

The starting valuation differed a lot among those nine past drops, and it seems to have mattered. Based on the previous fiscal year's earnings per share, the six drops that began under 40 times earnings were all followed by gains a year later, running from about 19% to 58%. The three that started over 40 times earnings (the two in 2022 and one in 2025) saw one gain of about 14% and two small losses.

Premium Feature

Moneyball Superscore

83/100

Today's Change

(

-0.10

%) $

-1.00

Current Price

$

946.92

Sure, nine drops is a small sample, so I wouldn't read too much into that split. But today's price-to-earnings ratio of around 45 looks far more like the 2022 starting points, at about 43 and 46 times earnings, than the cheaper ones before them.

The sales slowdown I worried about a week ago reversed in September, which makes the case for the business stronger. The stock's valuation, though, is around where it was.

In the end, I think Costco's track record after big drops and its improving sales trend make the stock worth a look today. But because shares still cost around 45 times earnings, I'd buy gradually over the coming months rather than all at once. And I wouldn't count on a gain as big as the ones that followed the cheaper drops.

Uniswap has drawn attention as its decentralized exchange has reportedly processed more tokenized stock trading volume in the past 30 days than all other decentralized exchanges combined, underlining its position in the rapidly developing tokenization sector.

Uniswap Strengthens Position in Tokenized StocksUniswap is a decentralized exchange protocol that allows users to trade a wide range of cryptocurrencies and tokenized assets directly on-chain. Recent data show Uniswap’s share of tokenized stock trading volume surpasses competitors by 55% over the last month.

This trend signifies the growing role of decentralized exchanges in bringing traditional assets, like equities, onto blockchain platforms. Tokenized stocks offer a blockchain-based way for users to gain exposure to traditional equities, though rights and conditions can differ depending on the issuer and platform.

The significant trading volume confirms Uniswap’s rising influence as financial institutions and crypto projects increasingly explore blockchain-based versions of traditional assets.

However, analysts caution that higher network activity does not necessarily generate direct benefits for UNI, the exchange’s native governance token. Impact on token value depends on fee models, liquidity, governance frameworks, and sustained user demand.

Key Levels and Technical Outlook for UNIAs Uniswap cements its lead in tokenized asset trading, market participants are closely watching the price of UNI for signs of further recovery. Crypto analyst Giannis Andreou identifies $6.14 as a major support level, citing technical reasons for its significance.

Andreou connects $6.14 with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from UNI’s move between $3.20 and $10.90, and notes this area aligns with previous trading ranges.

If UNI holds this level and consolidates, Andreou anticipates a potential recovery towards $7.05 and then $7.96. Major resistance comes between $8.50 and $9.30. Only a breakout through these levels would bring the previous high of $10.90 back into play. The analyst estimates this would mark a 77.5% increase from the $6.14 support zone.

LevelSignificance$6.14Key support, aligns with 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and prior range$7.05, $7.96Potential recovery targets$8.50 – $9.30Major resistance area$10.90Previous cycle high$5.50Support loss invalidates bullish scenarioShould the price fall below $5.50, the recovery outlook would be negated. Andreou emphasizes that any stronger upward move relies on support holding and resistance levels being overcome.

Tokenization Fuels Uniswap’s Market NarrativeUniswap’s lead in tokenized stock trading underscores the competition among decentralized exchanges for new segments. Attracting both traders and liquidity providers can strengthen the platform’s ecosystem, but does not always translate into immediate price appreciation for UNI.

Within Uniswap, UNI functions as a governance token, enabling holders to help shape the platform’s evolution. Increasing platform usage must be considered alongside protocol incentives, on-chain economics, and governance risk.

Investors and traders will be watching the key $6.14 level and potential breakout zones, as Uniswap’s activity in tokenized stocks continues to influence sentiment.

“The future direction of UNI hinges on the defense of $6.14 and the platform’s ability to maintain leadership in tokenized stock trading. However, volume growth alone is not a guarantee of price appreciation,” Andreou explains.

As Uniswap’s tokenization efforts gain attention, the distinction between broader platform adoption and direct value creation for UNI holders remains crucial for market participants.

Mini dictionary: Tokenized stocks are blockchain-based representations of traditional corporate shares, allowing the trading of equity exposure on crypto platforms. While these assets give investors price exposure similar to equity shares, their legal status, transferability, and rights depend on how each token is structured by the issuer and regulatory requirements in each jurisdiction.

SummaryIBM remains a Buy despite a pullback and ongoing deal delays, with Q3 results on Oct. 21 as the next key catalyst.Delayed mainframe and software deals are expected to close mostly by year-end, with at least half needing closure by Q3 to support guidance.IBM maintains its 100 bps operating margin expansion target, leveraging productivity gains even as revenue growth slows and Confluent acquisition weighs on margins.Free cash flow guidance of $10.9B for H2 is ambitious, hinging on strong Q4 execution; dividend appears secure even if targets are missed. Getty Images

International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) has slipped about 5% since I last wrote about it on Aug. 28, from around $239 to $220.51 as of Oct. 10. What's interesting is that no earnings report came out in between, so the stock fell

5.08K Followers

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Merck (NYSE: MRK), known as MSD outside of the United States and Canada, today announced the first presentation of one-year results from the pivotal Phase 2b/3 BRUNELLO trial evaluating remigromig (MK-3000, formerly EYE103), an investigational, potentially first-in-class tetravalent, tri-specific antibody designed to activate the Wingless-related integration site (Wnt) pathway, for the treatment of diabetic macular edema (DME). Results were presented today at the American Academy of Ophthalmology (AAO) 2026 Annual Meeting in New Orleans: BRUNELLO - 1-Year Pivotal Trial Results of Remigromig (MK-3000, formerly EYE103) for the Treatment of Diabetic Macular Edema; D. D'Amico.

In the BRUNELLO study, both remigromig dose arms met the primary endpoint independently, demonstrating non-inferiority in mean change from baseline in best corrected visual acuity (BCVA) at one year compared with monthly 0.5mg ranibizumab. Mean BCVA gains at Year 1 were +9.1 letters (95% CI, 8.1-10.1; p=0.0129, multiplicity-adjusted) with remigromig 0.5 mg and +8.7 letters (95% CI, 7.7-9.8; p=0.0222, multiplicity-adjusted) with remigromig 0.8 mg, compared with +11.8 letters with ranibizumab (95% CI, 10.7-12.8). Differences between treatment groups were within the prespecified non-inferiority margin and were not considered clinically meaningful. No secondary endpoints demonstrated superiority to ranibizumab.

While both doses of remigromig were generally well tolerated, adverse events related to proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) occurred more frequently with remigromig than with ranibizumab (6.7% and 6.1% with remigromig 0.5 mg and 0.8 mg, respectively, versus 0.9%), inclusive of new-onset PDR.1 In addition, higher rates of treatment discontinuations due to adverse events were observed in the remigromig treatment arms compared with ranibizumab (4.9% and 4.5% with remigromig 0.5 mg and 0.8 mg, respectively, versus 0.9%). Additional analyses are underway to further characterize these findings. PDR rates may reflect natural disease progression in DME patients since remigromig focuses on repair and maintenance of the blood-retinal barrier rather than directly suppressing new vessel growth. PDR cases were generally manageable with standard-of-care treatment.

“Although anti-VEGF therapies remain the foundation of treatment for diabetic macular edema, up to two thirds of patients fail to achieve clinically meaningful vision gains after one year, underscoring the need to explore new biological pathways,” said Donald J. D’Amico, M.D., chair of Ophthalmology at Weill Cornell Medicine, Ophthalmologist-in-Chief, New York-Presbyterian Hospital and presenting author of the BRUNELLO study. “These findings ‒ which demonstrate for the first time that a biologic targeting the Wnt pathway can achieve visual acuity comparable to an established anti-VEGF therapy ‒ support continued evaluation of this novel approach as we look forward to additional Phase 3 results from the BAROLO study.”

“Despite important advances in care, up to 40% of patients with diabetic macular edema have persistent disease activity after six months of treatment, meaning that they do not respond or only partially respond to therapy, underscoring the need for new therapeutic approaches,” said Dr. David Guyer, founder, chief executive officer and president of EyeBio, a wholly owned subsidiary of Merck. “The BRUNELLO study provides important evidence that activating the Wnt pathway, which is involved in the repair and maintenance of the blood-retinal barrier, may offer a potential new way to help patients with DME and expand treatment options for retinal specialists and their patients.”

“The BRUNELLO results represent an important milestone for people living with diabetic macular edema, a leading cause of vision loss among people living with diabetes, which impacts nearly 1.6 million people in the U.S.,” said Dr. Dean Y. Li, president, Merck Research Laboratories. “As the first new mechanism of action in more than 20 years to demonstrate non-inferior visual acuity compared with standard-of-care anti-VEGF therapy in a pivotal DME study, remigromig has the potential to expand treatment options for retinal specialists and patients. We thank the patients, caregivers and investigators whose participation made this study possible.”

The BRUNELLO trial data further strengthens Merck’s advancing ophthalmology pipeline, which is aimed at promoting retinal recovery by addressing specific retinal diseases associated with vascular leakage and neovascularization, including DME, neovascular (wet) age-related macular degeneration (NVAMD) and macular edema secondary to retinal vein occlusion (RVO).

Results from BRUNELLO will be discussed with regulatory authorities. Remigromig is also being evaluated in the ongoing pivotal Phase 2b/3 BAROLO study (NCT06957080) in patients with DME and in a Phase 2 proof-of-concept study (SUPER TUSCAN) in patients with NVAMD and RVO (NCT07205887).

The company is also developing MK-8748 (also known as Tiespectus, EYE201), a novel investigational bispecific antibody with a dual mechanism that directly activates the Tie2 pathway and inhibits VEGF with the goal of stabilizing retinal and choroidal blood vessels and reducing fluid accumulation in the macula. MK-8748 is currently being studied in two pivotal Phase 2b/3 trials for the treatment of NVAMD, TORRONTES (NCT07496567) and MALBEC (NCT07440225), and in two pivotal Phase 3 studies for the treatment of DME, SANGIOVESE (NCT07705555) and SYRAH (NCT07705607).

About the BRUNELLO trial

BRUNELLO is a randomized, double masked pivotal Phase 2b/3 trial (NCT06571045) evaluating the safety and efficacy of two dose levels (0.5 mg and 0.8 mg) of intravitreal (IVT) remigromig (MK-3000, formerly EYE103) versus active control 0.5mg ranibizumab in adults with DME. The trial enrolled 984 participants who were randomized 1:1:1 to receive low and high dose regimens of remigromig or ranibizumab every four weeks for the first year. In the second year, the frequency of treatment for participants will shift based on a personalized treatment interval (PTI) algorithm. The primary endpoint is mean change in best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) from baseline to week 52 in the study eye of the participants, using standardized Early Treatment of Diabetic Retinopathy Study (ETDRS) vision testing. The key secondary endpoints at week 52 are mean change from baseline in BCVA (superiority of remigromig vs. ranibizumab), and mean change from baseline in Central Subfield Thickness (CST) (superiority of remigromig vs. ranibizumab).

About Remigromig

Remigromig (MK-3000, formerly EYE103) is an investigational, potentially first-in-class tetravalent, tri-specific antibody designed to activate the Wingless-related integration site (Wnt) pathway, which is involved in the repair and maintenance of the blood-retinal-barrier. Remigromig is being studied in patients with certain retinal diseases including diabetic macular edema (DME) and neovascular age-related macular degeneration (NVAMD). Remigromig is administered by intravitreal injection.

About diabetic macular edema

Diabetic macular edema (DME) is a serious retinal condition and a leading cause of vision loss for people with diabetes. An estimated 1.6 million people are living with DME in the United States. DME occurs when damaged blood vessels leak into the retina, resulting in swelling in the macula, the central region of the retina crucial for precise vision necessary for everyday activities. The prevalence of DME is anticipated to rise with the increasing incidence of diabetes. While currently available treatments have helped to improve outcomes, a significant number of patients, up to 40%, do not respond or only partially respond to therapy, underscoring the need for new treatment approaches.

About Merck

At Merck, known as MSD outside of the United States and Canada, we are unified around our purpose: We use the power of leading-edge science to save and improve lives around the world. For more than 130 years, we have brought hope to humanity through the development of important medicines and vaccines. We aspire to be the premier research-intensive biopharmaceutical company in the world – and today, we are at the forefront of research to deliver innovative health solutions that advance the prevention and treatment of diseases in people and animals. We foster a diverse and inclusive global workforce and operate responsibly every day to enable a safe, sustainable and healthy future for all people and communities. For more information, visit www.merck.com and connect with us on X (formerly Twitter), Facebook, Instagram, YouTube and LinkedIn.

Forward-Looking Statement of Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, N.J., USA

This news release of Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, N.J., USA (the “company”) includes “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of the company’s management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. There can be no guarantees with respect to pipeline candidates that the candidates will receive the necessary regulatory approvals or that they will prove to be commercially successful. If underlying assumptions prove inaccurate or risks or uncertainties materialize, actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the forward-looking statements.

Risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, general industry conditions and competition; general economic factors, including interest rate and currency exchange rate fluctuations; the impact of pharmaceutical industry regulation and health care legislation in the United States and internationally; global trends toward health care cost containment; technological advances, new products and patents attained by competitors; challenges inherent in new product development, including obtaining regulatory approval; the company’s ability to accurately predict future market conditions; manufacturing difficulties or delays; financial instability of international economies and sovereign risk; dependence on the effectiveness of the company’s patents and other protections for innovative products; and the exposure to litigation, including patent litigation, and/or regulatory actions.

The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Additional factors that could cause results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements can be found in the company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025 and the company’s other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) available at the SEC’s Internet site (http://www.sec.gov/).

1 PTs indicative of PDR: diabetic retinopathy (if LLT ‘proliferative diabetic retinopathy’), vitreous hemorrhage, iris neovascularization, retinal neovascularization, glaucoma (if LLT ‘neovascular glaucoma’), neovascularization

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261010000066/en/

US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in approximately $3 billion in net inflows between September 17 and September 25, 2026. That stretch ranks among the strongest buying periods since the funds launched in January 2024.

The burst did something months of grinding could not. It pushed the year’s flow tally out of the red.

Hedge funds, often cast as the fast money behind ETF surges, appear to have played only a minor role this time. The buying looks more like a broad institutional return than a trading desk making a short-term bet.

The numbers behind the rally The peak week alone delivered $2.4 billion in net inflows. That was the largest weekly haul since October 2025.

BlackRock’s IBIT led the pack with around $1.2 billion during that peak week. Fidelity’s FBTC added roughly $702 million, while ARK 21Shares’ ARKB brought in about $295 million.

The biggest single day came on September 21, 2026, when inflows hit nearly $999 million.

The rebound matters most against where flows stood earlier in the year. By mid-July, the funds were sitting on a year-to-date deficit of about $5.8 billion.

Advertisement

By late September, that hole had become a modest net positive of about $934 million.

The flows lined up with Bitcoin’s price recovery. During the period, Bitcoin traded between $82,000 and $87,000.

A record quarter, then a cooldown Zoom out and the third quarter looks even stronger. Q3 2026 recorded $6.34 billion in Bitcoin ETF inflows, the highest of any quarter this year.

Cumulative net inflows since launch reached approximately $57-58 billion by early October 2026. Total assets under management sat around $105-110 billion over the same window.

The party did not last. Net outflows resumed in early October 2026, including a $244 million outflow on October 8.

Why the source of the money matters When the spot ETFs debuted in January 2024, they offered something new. Traditional investors could get Bitcoin exposure through a brokerage account, no crypto exchange or private keys required.

Who is buying shapes how durable a rally might be. Hedge fund flows often tie to basis trades, where funds buy ETF shares and short futures to capture a price gap. That kind of buying can unwind quickly once the spread closes.

Broader institutional demand tends to be stickier. If allocators are adding Bitcoin as a portfolio slice rather than a trade, the money is less likely to sprint for the exit at the first wobble.

The late-September data leans toward the second scenario.

What this means for investors For investors, the clearest signal is a shift in sentiment. Wiping out a deficit of about $5.8 billion suggests institutions still see Bitcoin as a legitimate portfolio holding, not just a speculative side bet.

The concentration in BlackRock’s IBIT also stands out. With around $1.2 billion of the peak-week inflows, the largest issuer kept widening its lead over Fidelity and ARK 21Shares.

Still, the October outflows serve as a reminder against reading too much into any single week. A $244 million exit on October 8 shows that sentiment can flip as fast as it arrived.

Bitcoin’s price range also deserves attention. Inflows clustered while Bitcoin recovered into the $82,000 to $87,000 band.

What to watch next is whether early October outflows prove to be a pause or a turn. If the year-to-date total of about $934 million slips back toward negative territory, the September surge will look more like a relief rally than a trend.

If inflows resume and cumulative totals push past the approximately $57-58 billion mark, the case for steady institutional adoption gets stronger.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

Sat 10 Oct 2026 ▪ 7 min read ▪ by Ghiles A.

Summarize this article with:

On October 10, 2025, the cryptocurrency market suffered a brutal crash that led to nearly 19 billion dollars in liquidations. A few days after a historic record above 126,000 dollars, bitcoin quickly lost part of its value. One year later, traders have better tools to monitor risks. Yet, leverage, excessive positions, and the weight of derivatives continue to weaken the market.

In brief The crypto crash of October 10, 2025 caused nearly 19 billion dollars in liquidations. Bitcoin fell from 122,000 to 105,000 dollars in a few minutes. Leverage and excessive long positions amplified market risks. Traders have better tools to monitor open positions and funding rates. One year after the crash, derivatives continue to threaten the stability of the crypto market. Bitcoin faced the memory of the October 2025 crash On October 10, 2025, the market experienced one of its most violent episodes. After exceeding 126,000 dollars, bitcoin saw its price drop from around 122,000 to 105,000 dollars. Most of this decline happened within minutes. This rapid drop surprised many investors who were still anticipating a price increase.

The collapse caused about 19 billion dollars in liquidations on cryptocurrency markets. These liquidations affected traders who had taken large positions using leverage. Their bets were notably based on the continuation of the rise and on historical market cycles. When prices reversed, these positions suffered fast losses.

For Mark Connors of Risk Dimensions, the magnitude of the move surprised market participants. This former head of a hedge fund positioning product at Credit Suisse highlights the weight of trader positioning.

It was a very fast and brutal market peak that we didn’t expect; positioning was significant then, and it still is today.

According to him, investors had accumulated significant long positions before the crash. This concentration of bets increased their exposure when the market abruptly changed direction.

Leverage remains at the heart of market risks Before the crash, open interest approached its highest historical levels. This indicator measures the number of derivative contracts still active in a market. At the same time, many traders anticipated a new bitcoin rally. Some even considered targets between 250,000 and 400,000 dollars, relying on previous cycles.

However, the crash showed the limits of these expectations. Connors estimates that “the movement mainly came from derivatives rather than blockchain data.” In other words, price variations can result from financial positions taken on the asset, without directly reflecting actual demand. This distinction remains essential to understand rapid market moves.

Perpetual futures contracts illustrate this dynamic. They allow traders to speculate on price changes without directly holding the cryptocurrencies involved. These instruments still hold an important place in trading, while platforms have financial reasons to continue offering leveraged products. Consequently, the same mechanisms that can amplify an uptrend can also accelerate a downturn.

More precise monitoring tools for traders Since October 2025, market participants have had additional information to assess their exposure. Connors notably highlights progress in the analysis of order books and positioning. These data help traders better understand market structure. However, they do not allow predicting with certainty the next price movement.

Chris Sullivan, co-founder of Hyperion Decimus, recommends first limiting leverage use. He also advises monitoring open positions, funding rates, and general market sentiment. These indicators can reveal an excessive accumulation of bets in one direction. Their combination thus allows spotting certain situations where the market becomes more vulnerable.

Funding rates deserve particular attention on perpetual contract markets. They reflect the cost associated with maintaining certain positions and provide indications about trading conditions. Meanwhile, open interest informs on the extent of still active commitments. When these measures reach extreme levels, Sullivan recommends patience rather than hasty decisions, whether traders anticipate a rise or a fall.

Bitcoin holders must also protect their assets The lessons from the crash also concern investors who wish to hold their assets for a long time. Sullivan recommends that they buy their bitcoins, then transfer them off exchange platforms to a secure place of custody. This approach limits their direct exposure to risks linked to keeping funds on a trading platform. It also distinguishes holding the asset from speculating on its short-term price changes.

This caution does not mean investors can eliminate all risks. Rapid price moves remain possible, even when traders monitor their positions more closely. Connors reminds that leveraged products are still present in the market. A new episode comparable to that of October 10, 2025, thus remains possible, despite progress made in data analysis.

Increased visibility nevertheless constitutes a notable change since the previous crash. Traders can better spot certain imbalances and measure their exposure before making decisions. However, having better tools does not guarantee a sufficiently swift reaction or complete protection from losses. Risk management thus remains a central issue for investors active in derivatives markets.

The four-year cycle questioned after the fall The crash also challenged another market belief: the ability of the four-year cycle to guide price expectations. This cycle is notably based on the periodic reduction of rewards given to miners. Before October 2025, some investors believed this mechanism could herald new peaks. However, the severity of the drop showed this reference was not enough to explain market movements.

Connors considers that the four-year cycle has not disappeared but that it has evolved:

The four-year cycle is not dead; it has changed, and we can no longer rely on it as much as before.

According to him, investors can no longer base their confidence on this model as before. Economic and political factors may now play a larger role in bitcoin’s fluctuations. This evolution complicates forecasts based solely on historical trends.

Moreover, the development of institutional investment products has not eliminated the influence of derivatives on short-term prices. The arrival of new actors does not prevent speculative positions from causing rapid moves. One year after the crash, Connors nevertheless believes investors pay more attention to market structure. This awareness represents one of the main lessons of the episode.

As the first anniversary of the October 10, 2025 crash approaches, the market thus retains a better understanding of its mechanisms, without having removed its main sources of fragility. Future developments will notably depend on trader positioning, leverage use, and the weight of derivatives. For BTC, investors’ ability to manage these risks will remain decisive. The market survived this drop, but nothing guarantees that the next shock will produce the same consequences.

Maximize your Cointribune experience with our "Read to Earn" program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.

Join the program

A

A

Lien copié

Ghiles A.

Journaliste et rédacteur web passionné par l’univers des cryptomonnaies et des technologies Web3. J’y traite les dernières tendances et actualités afin de proposer un contenu de haute qualité à un large public du secteur.

Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed

The highest standards in reporting and publishing

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

Geneva, Switzerland, October 10, 2026 — TRON DAO, the community-governed DAO dedicated to accelerating the decentralization of the internet through blockchain technology and decentralized applications (dApps), participated in TOKEN2049 Singapore as Title Sponsor and in Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) Asia 2026 at the Marina Bay Sands. TRON Founder Justin Sun joined fireside discussions at both conferences, sharing his views on stablecoins, institutional adoption, AI-driven commerce, machine-to-machine payments and the need for quantum-resilient blockchain infrastructure.

On October 7, Sun joined Michael Ippolito, Co-Founder of Blockworks, on the main stage at DAS Asia 2026 for a fireside titled “In Conversation with Justin Sun.” Organized by Blockworks, DAS Asia is an institution-focused digital asset conference examining the intersection of traditional finance and the digital asset economy. The conversation covered the evolution of stablecoins, institutional adoption, agentic AI payments and TRON’s role in the global digital asset economy.

Sun highlighted the growing role of tokenized assets and stablecoins as practical financial infrastructure, particularly for cross-border payments and access to digital dollars and U.S.-based assets. He also discussed the emerging role of AI agents in the economy, predicting that within the near future, AI agents will increasingly make payments, purchase digital services and manage financial activity on behalf of users.

On October 8, Sun joined Kevin Follonier, Founder of When Shift Happens, for “Fireside Chat with Justin Sun” on the TOKEN2049 main stage. The discussion explored the future of blockchain, stablecoins, AI agents and the broader evolution of global finance. Sun also discussed the need to prepare blockchain networks for quantum computing, noting that TRON has already made meaningful progress toward post-quantum readiness, with end-to-end post-quantum signature support deployed on the Nile testnet.

Furthermore, pointing to the mathematics behind the cryptography that secures blockchain networks, Sun turned to the Justin Sun Prize, which he describes as the “Nobel Prize of the AI Era.” Structured as a zero-trust, decentralized academic bounty mechanism built around a “problem list,” the prize recognizes breakthroughs in fundamental disciplines verified through machine formal verification. It seeks to accelerate fundamental research through collaboration between humans and AI.

“AI agents using crypto will become the industry’s biggest use case within the next five years,” said Sun. “As AI agents begin to transact, pay and operate autonomously, blockchain will become the financial infrastructure behind them. TRON’s focus is to provide the fast, efficient and accessible settlement layer that can support this next generation of global finance.”

TRON DAO also hosted a dedicated booth at the conference, giving attendees the opportunity to connect with the broader TRON community and learn about the ecosystem’s work across stablecoin payments, decentralized applications and AI-driven financial infrastructure. Beyond the conference floor, TRON DAO also hosted a Creators and Media Networking Happy Hour, welcoming industry leaders for an evening of light bites and conversation.

Across both events, the discussions underscored TRON’s focus on building blockchain infrastructure for a rapidly evolving financial system being shaped by stablecoins, tokenized assets, AI agents and increasingly resilient digital-asset networks.

About TRON DAO

TRON DAO is a community-governed DAO dedicated to accelerating the decentralization of the internet via blockchain technology and dApps.

Founded in September 2017, the TRON blockchain has experienced significant growth since its MainNet launch in May 2018. Today, TRON hosts the largest circulating supply of USD Tether (USDT) stablecoin, which currently exceeds $94 billion. As of October 2026, the TRON blockchain has recorded over 407 million in total user accounts, more than 15 billion in total transactions, and over $28 billion in total value locked (TVL), based on TRONSCAN. Recognized as the global settlement layer for stablecoin transactions and everyday purchases with proven success, TRON is “Moving Trillions, Empowering Billions.”

TRONNetwork | TRONDAO | X | YouTube | Telegram | Discord | Reddit | GitHub | Medium | Forum

Media Contact

Yeweon Park

[email protected] 

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

Shiba Inu's layer-2 network, Shibarium, saw a sudden spike in activity as the daily number of transactions rose in the last 24 hours. Shibariumscan data shows the number of transactions jumped from 970 on Oct. 8 to 2,440 on Oct. 9, a 151% growth.

This jump comes after a huge decline in the number of transactions, which was 5,710 on October 6. Activity on Shibarium has been on the rise gradually, with the number of transactions steadily climbing since the start of October.

This steady increase went on for six days, after which a sharp drop ensued. This inconsistency in transaction activity raises questions about the recent increase and whether it marks the start of a sustained recovery in Shibarium usage.

HOT Stories

You Might Also Like

According to a notice on ShibariumScan, there is ongoing reindexing which may account for the haphazard nature of the data, although this is not certain. The notice stated that 56% of blocks have been indexed so far.

Regardless of the exact reason, the 151% surge puts Shibarium's transaction activity back in focus as the Shiba Inu ecosystem continues to pursue greater utility.

Shiba Inu priceOn the first anniversary of the 10/10 flash crash, which resulted in the largest liquidation event in crypto history, Shiba Inu is currently trading in the green, up 1.24% in the last 24 hours to $0.00000546 and down 4.05% weekly.

You Might Also Like

Shiba Inu price returned to the green on a daily basis after completing a three-hour death cross, putting the dog-themed cryptocurrency's short-term price action back in focus.

A death cross occurs when a shorter-term moving average falls below a longer-term moving average; in this case, the 50 MA on the 3-hour chart has fallen well below the 200 MA, completing the bearish signal.

Shiba Inu marked four days of decline from a high of $0.000006 on October 5 before rebounding on Friday. The price drop saw Shiba Inu trade below its 50-day moving average and briefly fall below the daily MA 200 before recovering above it.

Bulls made an attempt to recover the 50 DMA early Saturday, with the SHIB price reaching $0.000005519 before a retreat. A successful attempt in this regard will be watched for a continuation of Shiba Inu's rebound in the upcoming sessions.

$XDC Now Live on Robinhood@XDCNetwork's native token $XDC is now available for trading on @RobinhoodApp, opening up one of the crypto market's more niche enterprise-grade assets to a broad audience of everyday investors.

The move is a meaningful step for XDC Network's visibility.

What the Listing Could Mean for $XDCRobinhood's retail reach makes this listing particularly notable. The platform has tens of millions of funded accounts in the United States, and new additions to its crypto lineup tend to attract attention from investors who may not be active on dedicated crypto exchanges. For $XDC, broader retail exposure could accelerate awareness of XDC Network's real-world use cases in trade finance and cross-border payments.

a segment that has attracted growing institutional interest as tokenisation of real-world assets gains traction. A listing on one of America's most widely used retail investing apps puts $XDC in front of an audience that was previously harder to reach through traditional crypto exchange channels.

It is also worth noting that Robinhood's broader relationship with the XDC ecosystem is not entirely new. suggesting a degree of strategic alignment between the Robinhood group and the XDC ecosystem.

Sources:
TokenPost: Robinhood Crypto Adds XDC Network Support for U.S. Retail Traders
Robinhood: Buy and Sell XDC Network (XDC)
CoinGecko: XDC Network Price and Market Data

Bitcoin whales poured over a billion dollars into the market right after a sharp decline, while one of the biggest mining companies quietly cashed out. Their opposing moves point to very different views on where Bitcoin goes from here.

This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.

In the days after the October 7 decline, Bitcoin whales—those with medium and large wallets—bought about 15,000 Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC), worth around $1.24 billion at current prices, according to analyst Ali Martinez. In contrast, on October 9, MARA Holdings (NASDAQ:MARA | MARA Price Prediction), one of the largest publicly traded Bitcoin mining companies, sold 996 BTC, valued at about $81 million, during the same period.

As of October 10, Bitcoin is trading at $82,801, down 2.1% over the week and 34.3% below its all-time high of $126,080. This creates a clear dichotomy: one group bought the dip, while a major miner decided to sell. So which perspective is more accurate for Bitcoin’s future, and is MARA truly making a statement about its price?

Bitcoin Whales Bought 15,000 BTC, but the Wallet Data Has Limits

Martinez’s findings indicate that medium and large wallets accumulated about 15,000 BTC, along with adding over 166,000 Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) and around 45 million XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) during the same three days, while smaller wallets continued to sell. Based on today’s prices, these purchases amount to about $1.24 billion in Bitcoin, $414 million in Ether at $2,495, and $63 million in XRP at $1.40.

However, wallet data categorizes blockchain addresses by the amount of cryptocurrency they hold without revealing their owners. This means a single individual or company can control multiple wallets, and an exchange moving coins between its accounts can look like a large buyer accumulating coins. Additionally, Martinez did not specify the data provider or clarify the thresholds for categorizing wallets as “medium” or “large,” making it difficult for readers to verify whether exchange wallets were excluded from the analysis.

Nonetheless, the trend is clear: large wallets added coins while smaller wallets shed them during the market drop.

Data also show that spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a notable shift. Investors withdrew $487 million on October 7 and $244 million on October 8, then saw a modest $21 million inflow on October 9, according to SoSoValue. This small inflow coincided with whales’ buying activity but remains minor compared with the heavier outflows seen earlier.

Why MARA Keeps Selling Bitcoin While Cutting Its Debt

Bitcoin miners run specialized computers to secure the Bitcoin network and earn new coins as a reward. MARA’s October 9 sale of 996 BTC represented 2.8% of its total holdings, which currently stand at 35,303 BTC valued at about $2.92 billion. MARA’s holdings have decreased by 34.4% since it held 53,822 BTC on December 31, 2025.

In the first half of 2026, MARA sold around 23,093 BTC for about $1.63 billion, averaging approximately $70,631 per coin. This total includes selling 20,880 coins for about $1.5 billion in the first quarter and 2,213 coins at an average price of $73,078 in the second quarter. The company has stated its intention to “continue to monetize bitcoin opportunistically to fund operations and capital projects,” using the cash for operating expenses, acquisitions, and debt repayment.

This selling strategy has reduced MARA’s total debt from $3.6 billion to about $2.4 billion, including partial repayment of $912.8 million in convertible notes, a $350 million credit line, and the buyback of nearly $1 billion in 0% convertible notes. Convertible notes are loans that can be converted into shares later, so eliminating them reduces both debt and potential future stock issuance.

Shareholders have welcomed this approach. For instance, on March 26, MARA’s stock surged 10% after a $1.1 billion Bitcoin sale funded a debt buyback, successfully retiring some of the company’s borrowings early. Bitcoin is currently trading about 13.3% above MARA’s average sale price from the second quarter and 17.2% above the first-half average, suggesting a selling strategy tied more to financing schedules than to price predictions.

Are Bitcoin Whales or MARA Right About Bitcoin? It appears that only the whales are making a prediction about Bitcoin’s price. MARA seems more focused on repairing its financial position, and the 996 BTC sale aligns with its debt obligations. While accumulation data from larger wallets suggests a positive move, the unnamed wallets used in the analysis and the single day of fund inflows do not definitively prove the whales’ outlook is correct. The information merely supports a narrower conclusion: larger holders acquired the Bitcoin that smaller holders sold after the October 7 drop.

MARA’s upcoming holdings update could provide more clarity. If the company’s stack shrinks further while total debt stays around $2.4 billion, it would suggest sales are no longer aimed at paying down debt, warranting a reevaluation of whether MARA is making a price prediction. Until more data comes in, MARA’s selling appears to be a strategic move aligned with financial responsibilities, while Bitcoin’s direction will largely depend on continued whale buying and ETF inflows.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Here in Florida, dollar weeds can overrun a lawn in a single rainy month. Credo Technology Group Holding (CRDO +2.21%) has been growing at a similar clip in the data center networking space. Revenue more than tripled in fiscal 2026, and management expects another jump of more than 85% this year.

That's what happens when you sell picks and shovels in the biggest gold rush in tech. Actually, scratch that metaphor: Credo sells the extension cords.

Nvidia and its AI accelerators get the market-moving glory, but somebody has to wire tens of thousands of GPUs together and keep those connections from glitching. That's Credo's job. Its active electrical cables (AECs) handle short hops inside server racks, and a growing optical lineup covers longer distances.

Three years from now, Credo's position will hinge on two factors: the pace of AI infrastructure spending and the success of a crowded product pipeline.

Premium Feature

Moneyball Superscore

90/100

Today's Change

(

2.21

%) $

4.69

Current Price

$

216.55

A check-engine light for AI clusters Credo's real specialty is reliability. AI clusters suffer from "link flaps," which are network connections that blink off and on without fully failing. A single flap can force operators to reset an entire cluster, losing hours of valuable computing work. In last month's Q1 2027 earnings call, Credo CEO Bill Brennan said that some customers have lost 10% to 20% of their GPU utilization to this problem.

So Credo adds smart software to its high-performance hardware. The PILOT platform monitors every link in real time. Brennan compares it to adding a yellow check-engine light to networks that used to show only green or red. One customer cut the computing cluster bring-up time from approximately seven weeks to five days. When a month of idle AI hardware can cost hundreds of millions of dollars in lost revenue, that kind of speed sells itself.

Three years of new toys Today, Credo is mostly a copper-cable company with a fast-growing optical side business. By fiscal 2028, it plans to add microLED cables that reach 30 meters, gearbox chips that help AI processors tap more memory, and dense optics for in-rack networks. Brennan describes Credo as "agnostic to the medium." It doesn't care whether your bits travel by copper or by light, as long as they ride on Credo gear.

Meanwhile, the hyperscalers keep shoveling cash into the furnace. Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms expect to spend about $745 billion on capital expenditures in 2026, up from $413 billion last year. Following that trend, analysts see Credo's revenue climbing from about $1.3 billion in fiscal 2026 to $3.9 billion in fiscal 2028.

What could go wrong Customer concentration is the largest risk. The two biggest customers accounted for 61% of first-quarter revenue. Chip giants Broadcom (AVGO +0.39%) and Marvell Technology (MRVL +0.25%) compete for many of the same contracts. And co-packaged optics could shrink the pluggable-component market where Credo earns most of its money.

Credo's growth doesn't come cheap, either. Shares trade at 77 times trailing earnings and 25 times sales on Oct. 9. Growth-friendly metrics look kinder: the PEG ratio sits around 0.4, and the stock trades at about 22 times fiscal 2028 earnings estimates.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

The verdict So where will Credo be in 2029?

Probably a much bigger business, with a broader product menu and a less lopsided customer list. The stock is a separate question. At this price, investors are betting the AI data center boom keeps rolling for years. If it does, Credo should keep spreading like a weed. If it doesn't, the share price could wilt.

Anders Bylund has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Broadcom, Marvell Technology, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

SpaceX (SPCX +1.25%) went public at $135 per share on June 12, reached a record high of $211.39 four days later, but now trades at about $160. The aerospace and AI company initially attracted significant attention from growth-oriented investors. Still, concerns about its capital-intensive expansion plans, steep losses, and sky-high valuation weighed on its stock.

Image source: Getty Images.

Why haven't I bought SpaceX yet? SpaceX has plenty of irons in the fire. Its Starlink satellite internet service is growing rapidly, and its recent acquisition of T-Mobile's 800 MHz spectrum could turn it into a mobile powerhouse. Its namesake spacecraft business could expand significantly as it ramps up Starship launches, the largest rocket ever built. Its fragmented AI business (which includes X, Grok, and Cursor) could also flourish as it launches new products and services.

Today's Change

(

1.25

%) $

2.00

Current Price

$

162.57

However, I wouldn't touch SpaceX's stock until its AI business stabilizes. In the first half of 2026, the AI segment's operating loss widened year over year from $2.46 billion to $3.73 billion, wiping out Starlink's operating profit of $2.84 billion. It expects the AI segment's losses to widen further as it ramps up its infrastructure investments. Those capital-intensive bets might eventually pay off, but they'll cast a dark cloud over its stock if interest rates keep rising.

With a market cap of $2.2 trillion, SpaceX trades at 49 times this year's sales. I wouldn't pay that premium unless it can prove its AI business isn't just a money pit.

Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends T-Mobile US. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Abbott (ABT +1.13%) currently trades for less than $100 a share. A conservative base-case model suggests the healthcare stock could be worth around $210 per share a decade from now. The best part is that doubling doesn't require anything close to optimistic assumptions; it's grounded in Abbott's recent history.

This high upside potential from a low-risk, high-quality dividend stock is why I just added Abbott to my portfolio this week.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

A history lessonIn 2016, Abbott generated nearly $21 billion in sales and $2.20 per share of adjusted earnings. This year, the healthcare company expects to report about $47 billion in sales and $5.53 of earnings at the mid-point of its current guidance range. That's a 9.7% compound annual earnings-per-share growth rate over the past decade.

Acquisitions helped Abbott deliver a nearly double-digit compound annual earnings growth rate over the past decade. In 2017, it bought both St. Jude Medical and Alere for $25 billion and $5.8 billion, respectively. These deals enhanced its operations and earnings (both were accretive in the first full year). The company also bought Exact Sciences earlier this year for $21 billion, a move that is boosting its 2026 results.

Premium Feature

Moneyball Superscore

74/100

Today's Change

(

1.13

%) $

1.11

Current Price

$

99.60

Abbot's share price has followed its revenue and earnings higher. It's up 130% over the last 10 years (8.7% annualized total return). That doesn't include dividends. Add in Abbott's steadily rising dividend, and the total return with dividends reinvested is more than 175% (10.7% annualized). Abbott has increased its dividend for 54 consecutive years, qualifying it as a Dividend King (a company with 50 or more years of annual dividend increase).

The math to $210 (or more) by 2036I considered several scenarios when evaluating Abbott for my portfolio. I settled on a base case in which Abbott Labs grows its earnings at a 8% compound annual rate over the next decade. I chose that more conservative rate because acquisitions played a meaningful role in driving growth over the past 10 years. Under this conservative scenario, Abbott's earnings would grow to about $11.93 per share by 2036. Assuming a 17.5x valuation multiple (Abbott currently trades at about 18x forward earnings), that would put its share price at around $210.

That doesn't include Abbott's dividend, which currently yields 2.5%, more than double the S&P 500's level of around 1%. The company would likely continue to grow that payout at a mid-to-high single-digit annual rate (it hiked its dividend by 6.8% this year and has grown it by 70% since 2020).

Abbott fits perfectly with my current financial plan. I'm seeking more resilient, income-focused holdings to set me up for an early retirement if AI ever disrupts my job. Abbott checks every box. It provides durable, steadily rising dividend income backed by a diversified portfolio of healthcare technologies, including diagnostics, medical devices, nutritionals, and branded generic medicines. It's the exact type of defensive holding I'm seeking to provide more ballast.

Further, Abbott provides a strong defense without giving up any offensive upside. With a 2.5% dividend yield and earnings growing conservatively at 8% annually, Abbott could generate double-digit annual returns over the next 10 years. That strong return doesn't require any large acquisitions to boost its results. Meanwhile, faster acquisition-driven growth would position Abbott to generate even higher returns. For example, a 9%+ earnings growth rate with a slightly higher valuation multiple would push the stock price toward $250 by 2036.

I also like that the downside risk is low. The company does have risks, including integrating Exact Sciences and managing the heavier debt load from that all-cash deal. However, even if growth slowed and its valuation multiple continued to fall, Abbott should still be worth more in a decade than it is today while also providing a steadily rising income stream.

Abbott's history says it has a bright futureAbbott has historically grown its earnings at a nearly 10% compound annual rate over the last decade. It doesn't need to grow that fast in the future to deliver a very favorable outcome for shareholders, as 8% annual earnings-per-share growth could double its share price by 2036, with its steadily rising, high-yielding dividend adding to the total return. That's exactly the lower-risk, higher-upside investment I'm seeking to make these days, which is why I just added Abbott to my portfolio. I expect to build this position into a meaningful part of my financial independence plan.

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS -10.48%) is a tough stock to value. The developer of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites has a market cap of $15.3 billion, which is 90.5 times its expected 2026 revenue. It had more than $3.7 billion in total liquidity at the end of June, but it doesn't generate any revenue from its commercial contracts.

So how should investors value AST SpaceMobile? AST SpaceMobile's BlueBird satellites provide broadband cellular connections for government and commercial customers. It's successfully launched 13 of those satellites so far.

Image source: Getty Images.

AST SpaceMobile currently generates all of its revenue from government and defense contracts, as well as prepayments from AT&T, Verizon, and other telecom companies, rather than from its commercial satellite operations.

But next year, AST plans to expand its constellation to 45 satellites, enabling it to provide continuous direct-to-cell broadband coverage for its telecom customers. It's already working with over 60 carriers to reach more than 3 billion wireless subscribers, and it plans to eventually expand its constellation to more than 248 satellites to convert its backlog -- which reached $1.3 billion in its latest quarter -- into actual revenue.

Premium Feature

Moneyball Superscore

69/100

Today's Change

(

-10.48

%) $

-5.97

Current Price

$

50.97

If AST achieves those goals, analysts expect its revenue to surge more than tenfold from $169 million in 2026 to $1.73 billion in 2028. So, rather than valuing AST based on its near-term revenue, investors should value it for the future growth of its satellite constellation.

Leo Sun has positions in Verizon Communications. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AST SpaceMobile. The Motley Fool recommends Verizon Communications. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Analysts expect the Yen to strengthen against the US Dollar, but Japanese investors' continued overseas buying challenges the pace of recovery. Japanese investors are still buying foreign assets heavily, testing Goldman Sachs' expectation that a shift in domestic policy will help the Yen recover against the US Dollar over the next year.

Goldman's latest forecasts put USD/JPY at 158 in three months, around January 2027, and 150 in 12 months, around October 2027.

The pair ended Friday near 158.33, leaving its near-term projection close to the market while the longer forecast requires a meaningful Yen appreciation.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 158.32755 (+0.17%)

Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.120134 (-0.10%)

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.323299 (+0.03%)

An 8 October study of Japanese portfolio flows shows why that recovery may take time: investors with unhedged overseas holdings have yet to change direction decisively, even as banks sell foreign bonds.

Goldman's Karen Reichgott Fishman and colleagues say: "We recently turned structurally bullish Yen as the domestic policies that have weighed on the currency for much of the past 10-15 years appear to be shifting in a more supportive direction. The BoJ has seemingly shifted to a faster pace of hikes and, most importantly, there appears to be a focus within the government on encouraging some reallocation by domestic investors back towards domestic assets."

The latest evidence tests the shift behind Goldman's September reduction in its 12-month Dollar-Yen forecast from 165 to 150.

Higher Japanese rates can improve the return available at home, but a stronger domestic investment proposition still has to persuade savers to change what they buy.

Overseas equity buying remains strong The Goldman analysts say: "We have been of the view that any shift in flows would likely be a slower-moving process, and so far that looks true among mostly unhedged investors."

Their reading of the Finance Ministry's September securities transactions release shows investment trusts, including retail investors and NISA savings-account flows, buying a net $8.7 billion of foreign equities, slightly more than in August.

NISA is Japan's tax-advantaged investment-account system.

MUFG's 9 October assessment reinforces that concern over a longer window.

Derek Halpenny, MUFG's head of research for global markets EMEA and international securities, says: "The buying has picked up and the 3mth sum of foreign equity purchases totalled JPY 3,949bn, a new record over a 3mth period."

Halpenny adds: "This Investment Trust flow captures households buying of foreign securities via NISA accounts and it remains clear that the expanded NISA limits adopted in January 2024 continues to have a notable impact."

Purchases of overseas investments without currency hedges create exposure to foreign currencies, potentially sustaining demand for them even as Japan's interest rates rise.

There is some moderation elsewhere, but slower buying is still different from bringing money home.

Goldman says: "The trust accounts category, which includes the public pension fund, suggests that net purchases of foreign bonds continued in September, but at a slower pace than in August ($7.6bn vs $14.7bn in August) and below the average pace of the prior six months ($8.6bn)."

"More broadly, our preferred estimate of key unhedged investor flows suggests that demand for foreign assets has generally persisted at a similar pace over the past year and shows no obvious signs of rotation. If that were to change, however, these data would be the first place to see it."

Bond sales do not tell the whole currency story Japanese banks' foreign-bond sales accelerated to $15.9 billion in September, according to Goldman, while life insurers also remained net sellers.

Those sales could look like evidence supporting Goldman's recovery forecast, but currency hedges change their significance.

Goldman says: "While less relevant for the Yen, repatriation flows have been evident in the data for typically hedged investors (mainly banks and roughly 40% of flows by Lifers)."

A currency hedge already offsets some or all of an overseas holding's exchange-rate exposure, so selling the asset and unwinding that protection need not generate equivalent fresh demand for Yen.

The question is whether domestic policy can alter the choices of investors who have bought abroad without protection.

MUFG points to discussions about allowing Japanese government bonds within NISA accounts, following Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama's July suggestion that their inclusion should be considered.

That remains a potential policy change, rather than an implemented incentive already redirecting savings.

Halpenny says: "Providing tax-free opportunities to hold JGBs could well have an impact on the flows to foreign equity markets that is so evident today and given the scale of foreign equity purchases currently would be viewed as a clear yen positive."

Jimmy Cayne spent nearly four decades building a fortune tied to one firm, and then watched it collapse faster than almost anyone on Wall Street thought possible. What his story reveals about concentration risk should unsettle every investor who feels…

He had been with the same firm for 38 years. Over that time he built up millions of shares of its stock, including the 5.61 million shares he later sold.

The stock opened 2008 at $88.35. He sold at $10.82. That was a fall of 88%, and it happened in less than three months.

The firm was Bear Stearns. The man was Jimmy Cayne.

From Stockbroker to Wall Street’s Richest Chief Bear Stearns hired Cayne as a stockbroker in 1969. He became chief executive in 1993 and also took the chairmanship in 2001. In 2005, Forbes placed him No. 384 on its list of the 400 richest Americans and estimated his fortune at $900 million. Reporting at the time described him as the first Wall Street chief executive whose stake in his own firm was reportedly worth more than $1 billion. That claim was never independently verified.

A Record High in 2007, Then a Long Decline Bear Stearns hit its all-time closing high of $171.51 on January 12, 2007. The stock declined over the following year.

How March 2008 Unfolded March 10, 2008: Shares closed at $62.30. March 14: The Federal Reserve extended an emergency loan, and shares closed at $30. March 16: JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM | JPM Price Prediction) agreed to buy the firm for $2 a share, which put the value of the whole company at about $236 million. March 24: JPMorgan raised its offer to about $10 a share. Bear Stearns closed that day at $11.25. Employees owned about a third of the company. CNN Money reported that they were angry their stakes would be “virtually wiped out.”

Cayne Sells at $10.82 a Share In March 2008, Cayne sold 5.61 million shares at $10.82. CNN Money put the proceeds at just over $61 million. His partner sold another 45,669 shares. He sold after JPMorgan raised its offer, and his price was above that offer.

Using his holdings at the start of the year, CNN Money estimated his loss against the original $2 offer at $477.8 million.

24/7 Wall St. covered the sale in March 2008 in two pieces: Jimmy Cayne Unloads All Bear Stearns Stock and Bear Stearns (BSC): James Cayne Does Something Right For Once. Our view then was that selling was the right decision.

A Final Trade, Then a Quiet Exit Bear Stearns shares traded for the last time on May 30, 2008, before the acquisition closed. Cayne died on December 28, 2021, at age 87.

A Lesson Every Shareholder Can Use Cayne ran Bear Stearns and knew it better than any outside investor could. He still saw most of his money disappear in a single quarter. Deep knowledge of a company gives no protection against owning too much of it.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

While the AI spotlight stays fixed on megacap darlings, one under-the-radar software company quietly sits at the center of every chip those giants design, and analysts are starting to notice the gap between its valuation and its growth.

Most AI money still flows into the megacaps, but every AI accelerator has to be designed, verified and packaged before it ships. Synopsys (NASDAQ:SNPS | SNPS Price Prediction) sells the software and silicon IP that make that possible.

Shares trade at $509.26. The 24/7 Wall St. price target is $632.92 over the next 12 months, which implies 24.28% upside. The model rates the stock a buy with high confidence.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary Metric Value Current Price $509.26 Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. $632.92 Upside/Downside 24.28% Recommendation BUY Confidence Level 90% Bullish analyst view stands at 92% with zero bearish ratings, and quarterly earnings grew 89.3% year over year. Synopsys leads in electronic design automation (EDA) and added engineering simulation through the Ansys deal.

Every new AI chip adds design complexity, driving more demand for Synopsys tools (we reverse-engineered what the biggest tech winners looked like early in a free playbook you can grab here).

A 29% Monthly Rally Puts Synopsys Back Near Its Highs Shares rose 17.06% over the past week and 29.28% over the past month, up 8.39% year to date. The stock sits about 5.6% below its 52-week high of $539.48 and roughly 40% off its low of $362.55.

The fiscal Q3 report on August 26 showed revenue of $2.48 billion, up 42.4% and ahead of the $2.44 billion estimate. Non-GAAP EPS of $3.91 beat the $3.67 consensus. Management raised full-year guidance to $9.69 billion to $9.74 billion revenue and $15.04 to $15.10 non-GAAP EPS. Shares slipped 10.71% over the following 30 days, setting up the current rebound.

Why Bulls See $730 Ahead Management expects double-digit organic EDA growth in Q4. Multiphysics Fusion, the first joint Synopsys-Ansys product, should add to EDA growth in 2027. Die-to-die IP is on pace to double, and Synopsys won more than 95% of PCIe 7 opportunities. CEO Sassine Ghazi: “These chips will not happen without our interface IP.”

Analysts largely agree, with 23 bullish ratings and just 2 Holds. Our bull case reaches $730.70.

What Could Knock Synopsys Off Course Export controls tied to China, customer concentration and about $10 billion of debt are real risks. Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock over growth-deceleration concerns.

GAAP EPS of $2.84 trailed non-GAAP results, and the trailing P/E stands at 86, partly from roughly $404 million in quarterly non-cash amortization tied to Ansys. Free cash flow guidance of $2.6 billion gives a cleaner read. The bear case of $540.93 still sits above today’s price.

Synopsys Looks Cheaper Than Cadence and Arm Cadence Design Systems (NASDAQ:CDNS) is Synopsys’ closest EDA rival, trading at 32 times forward earnings versus 23 for Synopsys. The valuation gap favors Synopsys.

Arm Holdings (NASDAQ:ARM) competes in licensed silicon IP, trading at 152 times forward earnings with a beta of 3.789. Compared with both peers, our 24/7 Wall St. price target looks reasonable.

Company Forward P/E Quarterly Revenue Growth (YoY) Synopsys 23 42.4% Cadence 32 24.2% Arm 152 22.4% Synopsys Earns Its BUY Rating The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $632.92 carries a buy rating and 90% confidence. Synopsys trades below Cadence despite faster reported growth.

Keep an eye on whether Q4 supports double-digit EDA growth, and on whether export restrictions expand or Design IP stalls. Strong analyst consensus and accelerating earnings back the bullish case.

Year Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. 2026 $632.92 2027 $721.07 2028 $835.76 2029 $919.25 2030 $969.19 These projections assume Synopsys delivers on AI design demand and Ansys integration. Faster royalty adoption could push results higher; trade restrictions could draws them lower.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Ripple’s annual Swell conference, set for October 27–29, 2026 in New York, is expected to highlight growing interest in the use of XRP and the XRP Ledger within institutional finance. A broad lineup of major banks, global asset managers, trading firms, and payment companies are preparing to attend, suggesting Ripple may be broadening its strategy beyond traditional payment services.

Banks and asset managers strengthen XRP’s institutional prospectsCrypto commentator X Finance Bull noted that the invitation list features industry giants, including BNY, Mastercard, Aviva Investors, ZILO, CME, Canary Capital, and Grayscale. BNY, one of the world’s largest custody banks, could facilitate asset custody, enable banking transactions, and assist institutions with collateral management as they access financial markets.

Mastercard, an established player in global payments, is seen as a potential partner to expand payment settlement opportunities, building on its previous work with RLUSD and the XRP Ledger. The commentator identified Aviva Investors and ZILO as key participants in the asset management sector. Aviva Investors, known for managing extensive portfolio assets, may seek to tokenize traditional investment funds on the XRP Ledger, while ZILO provides crucial infrastructure for regulated investment products.

On the trading and investment product front, CME already lists XRP derivatives, while Canary Capital and Grayscale offer investors structured exposure to XRP. The presence of AWS, Mastercard, and Stripe further signals a push toward integrating AI-driven payments, supported by the XRP Ledger’s capabilities for facilitating payment flows involving XRP and RLUSD.

Mini dictionary: RLUSD (Ripple Liquidity USD) is a stablecoin issued by Ripple, designed to provide consistent value and facilitate settlements on the XRP Ledger.

X Finance Bull highlighted that the joint participation of such industry leaders at Swell could strengthen existing relationships and open the way for wider use of XRP and the XRP Ledger in financial markets.

Existing connections signal institutional progressRather than focusing only on new announcements, X Finance Bull emphasized the importance of current partnerships and collaborations. BNY is already an active member in the RLUSD ecosystem. Mastercard has previously explored blockchain settlement processes using the XRP Ledger infrastructure, while Aviva Investors maintains a relationship with Ripple.

CME’s derivatives and established XRP investment products from Canary Capital and Grayscale are examples of how regulated financial instruments are now part of the institutional landscape. Additionally, SBI, a Japanese financial group, has maintained a long-term relationship with Ripple, and RLUSD has already gone live in Japan. The commentator also referenced a recent initiative where BTG Pactual fund shares were issued on the XRP Ledger through CSD BR, showcasing advances in regulated securities workflows, and mentioned the expansion of Ripple Prime’s activities with leading hedge fund Brevan Howard.

Institution/CompanyRole/Focus at Swell 2026BNYCustody, collateral, and banking transactionsMastercardPayment settlements, RLUSD integrationAviva InvestorsAsset tokenization on XRP LedgerZILORegulated investment infrastructureCMEXRP derivatives tradingCanary Capital, GrayscaleXRP investment productsAccording to the commentator, these developments reinforce a bullish view that Swell could be a platform for advancing institutional custody, collateral, lending, and liquidity solutions built on the XRP Ledger.

Swell 2026 to provide direction for Ripple’s institutional roadmapX Finance Bull argued that institutional adoption requires more than investor interest in $XRP. It spans custody solutions, settlement systems, liquidity, regulatory-compliant investment products, and infrastructure enabling large-scale engagement with digital assets.

Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, will be joined by leading industry figures in New York, where expectations are high for new strategic partnerships, technical integrations, or product demonstrations. X Finance Bull cautioned that while the presence of these institutions lays the groundwork for innovation, attendance does not guarantee immediate launches or announcements.

For XRP holders, Swell 2026 presents a unique chance to monitor the evolution of Ripple’s institutional vision and to see if initiatives announced at the event will accelerate adoption and the use of XRP Ledger technology within conventional finance.

Bitcoin için zincir üstü veriler, piyasada toparlanma ihtimalini güçlendiren sinyaller üretmeye başladı. BIT tarafından geliştirilen kurallara dayalı piyasa modeli, iki aydır yüzde 67 net uzun pozisyon seviyesini korurken beş önemli gösterge de tarihsel olarak boğa piyasalarıyla ilişkilendirilen bölgelere geçti. Ancak Bitcoin’in yakın zamanda yaklaşık 7.000 dolar gerilemesi, yükseliş beklentisinin henüz kesinleşmediğini gösteriyor.

BIT Modeli Neden Yeniden Boğa Piyasasına İşaret Ediyor? BIT, 9 Ekim tarihli paylaşımında zincir üstü modelinin son durumunu açıkladı. Model, 1 Ekim 2025’te yüzde 100 net uzun pozisyonla hareket ederken 1 Kasım’da yüzde 33’e geriledi ve 1 Aralık’ta sıfıra indi. Bitcoin’deki düşüş sürecinin büyük bölümünde bu seviyede kalan model, 1 Eylül 2026’da yeniden yüzde 67’ye yükseldi.

Model, böylece aynı pozisyon oranını üst üste iki ay korudu. BIT’e göre beş göstergenin eş zamanlı olarak tarihsel açıdan yükselişle ilişkilendirilen seviyelere ulaşması, en son Ekim 2025’te görülen bir tabloyu yeniden ortaya çıkardı. Bu gelişme, Bitcoin döngüsünde toparlanma ihtimaline işaret etse de bütün göstergelerin olumluya dönmediği özellikle vurgulanıyor.

Bitcoin Maliyet Göstergeleri Ne Söylüyor? İlk gösterge, kısa vadeli gerçekleşen fiyat. Bu ölçüm, yakın zamanda alınan Bitcoin’lerin ortalama maliyetini tahmin ediyor. Bitcoin, Ekim 2025’te 112.300 dolar seviyesindeki bu ölçütün altına gerilerken Ağustos 2026’da 68.800 dolar seviyesinden yeniden üzerine çıktı. Güncel gösterge değeri 74.319 dolar olarak hesaplanıyor.

İkinci gösterge olan True Market Mean, piyasada aktif şekilde kullanılan sermayenin maliyet tabanını izliyor. Bu değer 77.460 dolar seviyesinde bulunurken CoinGecko verilerindeki Bitcoin fiyatı yaklaşık 82.000 dolardı. BIT, fiyatın bu eşiğin üzerinde kalıcı biçimde işlem görmesinin yükseliş senaryosunu daha güçlü hale getirebileceğini belirtiyor.

Bu iki gösterge, yatırımcıların maliyet seviyeleriyle mevcut fiyat arasındaki ilişkiyi değerlendirmeye yardımcı oluyor. Ancak fiyatın bu eşiklerin üzerinde bulunması, tek başına kalıcı bir yükseliş trendini garanti etmiyor.

MVRV, NUPL Ve VDD Göstergeleri Neden Önemli? Üçüncü gösterge olan MVRV, Bitcoin’in piyasa değerini gerçekleşen değeriyle karşılaştırıyor. MVRV okuması 0,20 seviyesinde bulunuyor. Bu ölçüm, piyasanın mevcut değerlemesini zincir üstündeki maliyet verileriyle birlikte değerlendirmek için kullanılıyor.

Dördüncü gösterge NUPL, yatırımcıların gerçekleşmemiş kâr ve zarar durumunu ölçüyor. NUPL yeniden pozitif bölgeye geçerek Ekim 2025’ten bu yana ilk kez bu seviyeye ulaştı. Bu değişim, toplam yatırımcı grubunun kâğıt üzerindeki kâr durumunun iyileştiğine işaret ediyor.

Beşinci gösterge ise Value Days Destroyed (VDD). Bu ölçüm, Bitcoin birimlerinin ne kadar süredir tutulduğunu ve değerlerini dikkate alarak zincir üzerindeki hareketlerini izliyor. VDD de yükselişle ilişkilendirilen bölgeye geçti. Böylece beş göstergenin tamamı aynı anda olumlu sinyal üretmeye başladı.

Bitcoin İçin Yükseliş Senaryosunu Hangi Riskler Bozabilir? Olumlu zincir üstü verilere rağmen Bitcoin’in fiyat performansı baskı altında. CoinGecko verilerine göre Bitcoin yaklaşık 82.000 dolardan işlem görürken son yedi günde yüzde 4,5, son bir yılda ise yüzde 32’den fazla değer kaybetmişti. Fiyat, 87.000 doların üzerine çıkmayı başaramadıktan sonra yaklaşık 7.000 dolar geriledi.

Bu düşüşle aynı dönemde ABD hükümetine ait önemli miktarda BTC’nin Coinbase Prime’a aktarılması, 7 ve 8 Ekim tarihlerinde spot Bitcoin ETF’lerinden toplam 731 milyon dolarlık çıkış yaşanması ve 1 milyar doları aşan gerçekleşmiş kâr satışları öne çıktı.

BIT, modelin henüz tamamen uzun pozisyona geçmediğini belirtiyor. Bazı göstergeler hâlâ yükseliş sinyali vermediği için Bitcoin’in kısa vadeli gerçekleşen fiyatın ve True Market Mean seviyesinin altında kalıcı biçimde gerilemesi erken bir uyarı olabilir.

Bu içerik kesinlikle yatırım tavsiyesi niteliği taşımamaktadır. Piyasalar yüksek risk içermektedir ve yatırım kararlarınızı almadan önce kendi araştırmanızı yapmanız önemlidir.

Son Dakika kripto para haberleri için hemen tıkla.

Konu ile ilgili yorumlarınızı bize yazabilirsiniz. Ayrıca, bu tarz bilgilendirici içeriklerin devamının gelmesini isterseniz, bizleri Telegram, Youtube ve Twitter kanallarımızdan takip edebilirsiniz.