Market Signal Briefing

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Manulife Financial (MFC - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 6.5% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Manulife due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Manulife Financial Corp before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

MFC Beats Q4 Earnings Estimates, Unveils 10.2% Dividend Hike

Manulife Financial Corporation delivered fourth-quarter 2025 core earnings of 80 cents per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.2%. The bottom line improved 8.1% year over year. Core earnings were $1.4 billion (C$1.9 billion). The results reflected continued business growth in Asia, Global WAM, and Canada, and the net impact of 2025 updates to actuarial methods and assumptions. It was partially offset by unfavorable life insurance claims experience in the United States in the reported quarter, lower investment spreads, and the impact of the eMPF transition in Hong Kong.

New business value (NBV) in the reported quarter was $626 million (C$874 million), up 4.1% year over year, reflecting a more favorable business mix and margin improvements. New business contractual service margin (CSM) of $731 million (C$1,020 million). Annualized premium equivalent (APE) sales decreased 1% year over year.

Wealth and asset management assets under management and administration were $799.7 billion (C$1,115 billion), up 13% year over year. The Wealth and Asset Management business generated net outflows of $6.8 billion (C$9.5 billion) against net inflows of $1.2 billion in the year-ago quarter, primarily due to Retirement net outflows and Retail net outflows.

Core return on equity, measuring the company’s profitability, expanded 60 basis points year over year to 17.1%. Life Insurance Capital Adequacy Test ratio was 136% as of Dec. 31, 2025. Adjusted book value per common share was $38.27, up 5.5% year over year.

Segmental PerformanceGlobal Wealth and Asset Management’s core earnings came in at $351 million (C$490 million), up 2.3% year over year, driven by higher net fee income from favorable market impacts over the past 12 months and the acquisition of Comvest, and continued expense discipline, partially offset by the impact of the eMPF transition in Hong Kong and lower performance fees. Asia division’s core earnings totaled $563 million (C$785 million), up 65% year over year, reflecting continued business growth and the net impact of 2025 updates to actuarial methods and assumptions.

APE sales decreased 3% year over year, as growth in Japan and Asia Other was more than offset by lower sales in Hong Kong. New business CSM and NBV increased 19% and 10%, respectively, driven by the business mix, partially offset by lower sales volumes. NBV margin improved to 41.2%. Manulife Financial’s Canada division core earnings of $296 million (C$413 million) were up 6.4% year over year, driven by favorable insurance experience in Individual Insurance, higher investment spreads, business growth in Group Insurance, and the net impact of 2025 updates to actuarial methods and assumptions, partially offset by less favorable insurance experience in Group Insurance.

APE sales and NBV increased 2% and 4%, respectively, reflecting growth in Individual Insurance and Annuities. It was partially offset by lower sales in Group Insurance. New business CSM increased 16%, driven by higher sales volumes and margins in Individual Insurance.

The U.S. division reported core earnings of $228 million (C$319 million), up 8.5% year over year.  Sales momentum continued as APE sales and NBV increased 9% and 8%, respectively, reflecting broad-based demand for a suite of products. New business CSM grew 34%, driven by higher sales volumes and product mix.

Dividend UpdateThe board of directors approved a 10.2% hike in its quarterly dividend to 48.5 cents. Shareholders of record as of Feb. 25, 2026, will receive the dividend on and after March 19, 2026.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?Analysts were quiet during the last two month period as none of them issued any earnings estimate revisions.

VGM ScoresAt this time, Manulife has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a C. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook Manulife has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Legget & Platt (LEG - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 10.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Legget & Platt due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Leggett & Platt, Incorporated before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

Leggett’s Q4 Earnings Meet Estimates, Sales SurpassLeggett & Platt reported fourth-quarter 2025 sales of $939 million, down 11% year over year, but topping the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.7%.

The decline reflected soft demand in residential end markets, Automotive, and Hydraulic Cylinders, partly offset by gains in Textiles and Work Furniture. Organic sales fell 6%, while divestitures lowered sales 5%.

Adjusted EPS of 22 cents met the Zacks Consensus Estimate and increased 4.8% year over year, primarily due to metal margin expansion, though volume declines offset the gains.

Segment HighlightsBedding Products: Sales fell 11%, with a 15% volume drop. Adjusted EBIT margin improved 240 bps to 4.4%, aided by metal margin expansion and restructuring gains.

Specialized Products: Sales declined 21%, reflecting weaker Automotive and Hydraulic Cylinders performance. Adjusted EBIT margin decreased 50 bps to 9.5%.

Furniture, Flooring & Textile Products: Sales were down 3% year over year; adjusted EBIT margin fell 230 bps to 2.8%, impacted by pricing pressure in Flooring and Textiles.

Margins and ProfitabilityAdjusted EBIT came in at $47.9 million, down 14% year over year, while adjusted EBIT margin declined 20 basis points (bps) to 5.1%.

Balance Sheet & Cash FlowLeggett ended the fourth quarter with $587 million in cash, $1.3 billion in total liquidity, and $1.5 billion in long-term debt, down 20% year over year. Operating cash flow improved to $338 million, up 11% year over year, driven by better working capital management. Capital expenditures were $57 million and dividends totaled $27 million.

2026 Outlook UnveiledFor 2026, sales are projected between $3.8 billion and $4 billion (down 1-6% year over year), while adjusted EPS is expected at $1.00-$1.20, up at the midpoint compared with 2025. The company targets an operating cash flow of $225–$275 million and continues to focus on deleveraging and disciplined cost execution.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates review.

VGM ScoresAt this time, Legget & Platt has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a C. However, the stock has a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Legget & Platt has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Kraft Heinz (KHC - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 8.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Kraft Heinz due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

The Kraft Heinz Company Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, Organic Sales Fall 4.2% Y/YThe Kraft Heinz Company posted fourth-quarter 2025 results, with the top line missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate but the bottom line exceeding the same. However, both metrics declined year over year.

The company has greater-than-expected potential to modernize its brands and address operational challenges, many of which are within its control. To sharpen its focus on performance improvement, the company has paused the separation initiative and shifted resources toward executing its core strategy. The Kraft Heinz Company is also launching a $600 million investment across marketing, sales, R&D, product improvement, and selective pricing, supported by a strong balance sheet and robust free cash flow, which management believes will accelerate the company’s recovery and growth trajectory.

The Kraft Heinz Company’s Quarterly Performance: Key InsightsThe Kraft Heinz Company posted adjusted earnings of 67 cents per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 61 cents. Quarterly earnings fell 20.2% year over year, mainly due to lower adjusted operating income, elevated taxes on adjusted earnings, and increased interest expense, partially offset by favorable changes in other income/expense and a lower share count.

The company generated net sales of $6,354 million, down 3.4% year over year. The metric missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6,418 million. Net sales included a favorable foreign currency impact of 0.8 percentage points. Organic net sales decreased 4.2% compared with the prior year period. Pricing contributed a positive 0.5 percentage point impact, driven by increases in the International Developed Markets and Emerging Markets segments, while pricing in North America remained flat. Favorable pricing primarily reflected actions taken in select categories to offset higher input costs. Volume/mix declined by 4.7 percentage points year over year, with decreases across all segments. The unfavorable volume/mix was mainly due to declines in coffee, cold cuts, Indonesia, bacon and Ore-Ida.

The adjusted gross profit of $2,101 million decreased from the $2,262 million reported in the year-ago quarter. The adjusted gross margin contracted 130 bps to 33.1%.

Adjusted operating income declined 15.9% to $1,164 million, primarily due to inflation in commodities and manufacturing exceeding productivity gains, while higher marketing spend and lower volumes further weighed on margins. These factors more than offset the benefits of pricing actions.

Decoding The Kraft Heinz Company’s Segment-Wise ResultsNorth America: Net sales of $4,700 million declined 5.4% year over year. Organic sales fell 5.4%. During the quarter, pricing remained flat and the volume/mix fell 5.4 percentage points.

International Developed Markets: Net sales of $930 million were up 1.8% year over year. Organic sales declined 2.4%, with pricing up 1.8 percentage points and volume/mix dipping 4.2 percentage points.

Emerging Markets: Net sales of $724 million were up 4.3% year over year. Organic sales grew 2.2%. Pricing up 2.4 percentage points, but volume/mix down 0.2 percentage points.

The Kraft Heinz Company: Other Financial AspectsThe Kraft Heinz Company ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $2,615 million, long-term debt of $19,311 million and total shareholders’ equity (excluding noncontrolling interest) of $41,664 million. Net cash provided by operating activities was $4,462 million for the year ended Dec. 27, 2025, and free cash flow was $3,661 million.

In fiscal 2025, the company returned significant capital to shareholders, paying $1.9 billion in cash dividends and repurchasing $436 million of common stock. Approximately $400 million of these repurchases were executed under the company’s publicly announced share repurchase program. As of Dec. 27, 2025, the company had approximately $1.5 billion remaining under its authorized share repurchase program.

What to Expect From Kraft Heinz in 2026?For fiscal 2026, The Kraft Heinz Company expects organic net sales to decline 1.5% to 3.5% year over year, reflecting an estimated 100 bps impact from incremental SNAP-related headwinds. Constant currency adjusted operating income is projected to decline 14% to 18%. Adjusted gross profit margin is expected to decrease 25-75 bps versus the prior year. The company anticipates adjusted EPS to be between $1.98 and $2.10.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.

The consensus estimate has shifted -17.78% due to these changes.

VGM ScoresCurrently, Kraft Heinz has a average Growth Score of C, a score with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Kraft Heinz has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for International Flavors (IFF - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 14.1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is International Flavors due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

International Flavors Q4 Earnings Miss Estimates, Sales Dip Y/YInternational Flavors reported adjusted earnings of 80 cents per share in fourth-quarter 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 85 cents. The company posted adjusted EPS of 93 cents in the year-ago quarter, including the impacts of divestiture and integration-related costs, and other non-recurring costs.

Excluding these, the company posted an adjusted EPS of 97 cents in the fourth quarter of 2024. 

Including one-time items, the company reported earnings of 7 cents per share against the prior-year quarter’s loss of 23 cents.

International Flavors’ net sales were $2.59 billion in the December-end quarter, down 6.6% from the year-ago quarter. The top line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.51 billion. In the quarter, currency-neutral sales inched up 1%, aided by mid-single-digit growth in Health & Biosciences and Scent, and a low-single-digit performance in Taste.

International Flavors’ Q4 Gross Margin Improves Y/YIn the reported quarter, IFF’s cost of goods sold was down 5.1% year over year to $1.7 billion. Gross profit fell 9.1% to $891 million. The gross margin came in at 34.4% compared with 35.4% in the year-ago quarter.

Research and development expenses increased 2.4% year over year to $174 million. Selling and administrative expenses rose 12.8% to $383 million in the fourth quarter. Adjusted operating EBITDA came in at $437 million, up 7.2% from the prior-year quarter’s $471 million. The adjusted operating EBITDA margin was 16.9% compared with the year-ago quarter’s 17%.

IFF’s Q4 Segmental PerformancesNet sales in the Taste segment increased 2.1% year over year to $588 million in the December-end quarter. The adjusted operating EBITDA was $94 million, up 8% year over year. 

Net sales in the Food Ingredients segment fell 2.1% year over year to $802 million in the December-end quarter. The adjusted operating EBITDA was $82 million, up 18% year over year. 

Sales generated in the Health & Bioscience segment were $586 million compared with the year-earlier quarter’s $555 million.The adjusted operating EBITDA was $155 million in the quarter, up 14% year over year. 

The Scent segment’s sales were $610 million, up 5.5% year over year. The adjusted operating EBITDA remained flat year over year at $106 million.

International Flavors’ Q4 Cash Flow & Balance Sheet UpdatesIFF had cash and cash equivalents of $590 million at the end of 2025, up from $469 million at the end of 2024. Long-term debt was $4.74 billion at the 2025 end compared with $7.56 billion at the end of 2024.

International Flavors generated $0.85 billion in cash from operating activities in 2025, down from $1.07 billion in the prior year.

IFF’s 2025 PerformanceThe company reported adjusted earnings of $4.20 per share in 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.28. The company posted adjusted earnings of $4.22 in 2024. Including one-time items, the company reported a loss of $1.46 per share against the prior year’s earnings of $1.04.

International Flavors’ net sales were $10.89 billion in 2025, down 5.2% year over year. The top line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $10.82 billion. In the year, currency-neutral sales rose 2%. The upside was driven by volume growth, productivity gains and favorable net pricing.

International Flavors’ 2026 GuidanceThe company expects sales for fiscal 2026 between $10.5 billion and $10.8 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is expected between $2.05 billion and $2.15 billion.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.

The consensus estimate has shifted -7.58% due to these changes.

VGM ScoresAt this time, International Flavors has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a B. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a score of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, International Flavors has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry PlayerInternational Flavors belongs to the Zacks Chemical - Specialty industry. Another stock from the same industry, Linde (LIN - Free Report) , has gained 3.7% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended December 2025.

Linde reported revenues of $8.76 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +5.8%. EPS of $4.20 for the same period compares with $3.97 a year ago.

For the current quarter, Linde is expected to post earnings of $4.27 per share, indicating a change of +8.1% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged over the last 30 days.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Linde. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of C.

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Humana (HUM - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 8.5% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Humana due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Humana Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

Humana Incurs Q4 Loss, Revenues Up Y/Y on CenterWell Unit Strength

Humana incurred a fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted loss of $3.96 per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $4.01 per share but wider than the prior-year quarter’s loss of $2.16 per share.

Adjusted revenues improved 11.8% year over year to $32.6 billion. The top line outpaced the consensus mark by 2.4%.

The quarterly results benefited on the back of premium gains and a robust performance from the CenterWell segment, which saw a revenue jump supported by its pharmacy and primary care businesses. However, the upside was partly offset by escalating operating expenses, a sharp drop in investment income and a decline in overall medical membership.

Q4 Operational UpdateHumana’s premiums totaled $30.9 billion, which advanced 11.3% year over year, and came higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $30.2 billion and our estimate of $29.8 billion. Services revenues rose 28.6% year over year to $1.5 billion, higher than the consensus mark of $1.4 billion. Investment income of $132 million plunged 55.6% year over year in the quarter under review. The metric lagged the consensus mark of $273 million and our estimate of $295.7 million.

The benefit ratio came in at 93%, which deteriorated 150 basis points (bps) year over year. Total operating expenses increased 12% year over year to $33.3 billion, higher than our estimate of $31.8 billion. The year-over-year increase was due to higher benefits and operating costs. Adjusted operating cost ratio of 13% improved 20 bps year over year.

Humana incurred a net loss of $776 million, wider than the prior-year quarter’s loss of $683 million.

Q4 Segmental UpdateInsuranceThe segment’s adjusted revenues rose 11.3% year over year to $31.3 billion in the fourth quarter on the back of improved per-member premiums derived from HUM’s Medicare and state-based contract businesses. An expanding customer base in stand-alone prescription drug plans also drove the performance.

The unit incurred an adjusted operating loss of $923 million, wider than the prior-year quarter’s loss of $575 million. The adjusted benefit ratio deteriorated 120 bps year over year to 93.1%. Adjusted operating cost ratio of 10.8% improved 20 bps year over year.

Total medical membership of the segment was 15 million as of Dec. 31, 2025, which fell 8.2% year over year. The metric fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 15.1 million and our estimate of 15.2 million.

CenterWellThe unit recorded revenues of $6 billion in the quarter under review, which improved 16.2% year over year and surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.5 billion. The metric benefited from higher revenues stemming from the company’s pharmacy and primary care businesses.

Adjusted operating income dropped 10.4% year over year to $345 million. The operating cost ratio of 94.2% deteriorated 170 bps year over year due to the ongoing implementation of the v28 risk model update within the company’s primary care business and higher volumes in CenterWell Specialty Pharmacy.

Humana’s Financial Update (As of Dec. 31, 2025)Humana exited the fourth quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $4.2 billion, which soared 89.1% from the 2024-end level. Total assets of $48.9 billion increased 5.2% from the figure at 2024-end.

Long-term debt amounted to $12.4 billion, up 11% from the figure as of Dec. 31, 2024. Debt to capitalization improved 80 bps year over year to 41.1% at the fourth-quarter end.

Total stockholders’ equity of $17.7 billion advanced 7.8% from the 2024-end figure.

HUM generated net cash from operations of $921 million in 2025, which plunged 68.9% from the 2024 figure.

HUM’s Capital Deployment UpdateHumana bought back shares worth $151 million in 2025. It also paid dividends of $430 million during 2025.

Full-Year UpdateAdjusted revenues of $129.8 billion grew 10.7% year over year in 2025. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose 5.7% year over year to $17.14.

Premiums of $122.8 billion improved 9.6% year over year. The benefit ratio came in at 90.2% for 2025, which deteriorated 40 bps year over year.

2026 ViewRevenues are estimated to be a minimum of $160 billion, which implies an 23.4% increase from the 2025 reported figure. The Insurance segment’s revenues are forecasted at a minimum of $155 billion. Revenues of the CenterWell segment are expected to be at a minimum of $25 billion.

Adjusted EPS is projected to be at least $9.00, which indicates a 47.5% decline from the 2025 figure. GAAP EPS is projected to be at least $8.89. 

Management anticipates Individual Medicare Advantage membership to witness growth of around 25% in 2026. Group Medicare Advantage membership is expected to record an increase of roughly 150,000.

Membership from the Individual Medicare stand-alone PDP is expected to increase around 1,000,000 this year. State-based contracts are expected to witness membership growth within 25,000-100,000.

The GAAP benefit ratio for the Insurance segment is likely to be 92.75%, with a variability margin of plus or minus 25 basis points. The GAAP consolidated adjusted operating cost ratio is anticipated to be at 10%, with a variability margin of plus or minus 25 basis points.

GAAP cash flow from operations is estimated within $2.5-$2.9 billion. Meanwhile, capital expenditures are projected to be roughly $650 million. The adjusted effective tax rate is expected to be around 25.5% while the weighted average share count is anticipated at around 121 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

VGM ScoresAt this time, Humana has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a C. However, the stock has a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, Humana has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry PlayerHumana belongs to the Zacks Medical - HMOs industry. Another stock from the same industry, Molina (MOH - Free Report) , has gained 17.7% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended December 2025.

Molina reported revenues of $11.38 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +8.3%. EPS of -$2.75 for the same period compares with $5.05 a year ago.

For the current quarter, Molina is expected to post earnings of $2.16 per share, indicating a change of -64.5% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -40.6% over the last 30 days.

Molina has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of F.

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Operating the Round Top Heavy Rare Earth project in Texas, among other domestic projects, USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ:USAR) has become one of the more polarizing stories in retail investing this year. Shares of the company are up 67% year-to-date, fueled by a single catalyst: a non-binding letter of intent for $1.6 billion in federal financing announced on January 26, 2026. The deal pairs a $277 million federal grant with a $1.3 billion senior secured loan, with the government taking a 10% equity stake in the company. A concurrent $1.5 billion private placement closed on January 29, bringing total capital raised to roughly $3.1 billion. For a company with zero revenue and a stockholders’ deficit of $58.6 million, that is a significant bet on a mine that won’t begin commercial production until late 2028.

This infographic details USA Rare Earth (USAR) as a polarizing investment, highlighting its current ‘Bullish’ social sentiment score of 74, driven by federal funding news despite significant inherent risks. Reddit Spiked, Then Went Quiet Around the government announcement, posts across r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks, and r/stockmarket generated over 6,800 upvotes and 1,239 comments with a sentiment score of 68.98 out of 100. By this week, activity collapsed to 65 upvotes and 15 comments, though sentiment held at 71 (bullish). The loudest thread wasn’t even a USAR post. A r/stocks discussion titled “Do you feel that considerable insider trading is currently happening in the USA?” drove the most engagement, peaking at 3,719 upvotes and 511 comments. USAR’s biggest Reddit moment being wrapped inside an insider trading debate captures the tension around this stock perfectly.

On r/wallstreetbets, the post titled “USAR – USA Rare Earth” drew attention shortly after the government funding announcement. One commenter noted the significance of the LOI, writing that the federal backing was the kind of catalyst that could re-rate the entire rare earth sector.

On r/stocks, a post with reddit_id 1iu7aqb captured early retail reaction to the news, with one commenter writing that USAR was worth watching given the government’s push to onshore critical mineral supply chains, though others cautioned that the LOI remained non-binding.

Do you feel that considerable insider trading is currently happening in the USA?
by u/[OP] in stocks The bear case is concrete:

USAR carries going concern doubt across every quarter it has reported, with liabilities exceeding assets and no revenue path until 2028 Short interest sits at 21.85% of float, more than double the peer average of 8.58%, signaling active skepticism from professional traders Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick faces an ethics investigation tied to Cantor Fitzgerald’s role as lead placement agent, introducing real uncertainty around whether the federal commitment holds The Valuation Depends Entirely on Execution Among the notable voices discussing USAR, analyst Derek Soderberg at Cantor Fitzgerald projected that magnet production could generate $1.2 billion in EBITDA by 2030 if key milestones are met. The consensus analyst target is $38, while the current price is near $19.85. The closest peer, MP Materials (NYSE:MP), is up 15% year-to-date with actual production already running. The LOI is non-binding, the mine is years out, and existing shareholders face roughly 75% dilution from the capital raises. The key thing to watch is whether the federal funding converts from a letter of intent into a signed agreement.

Data Sources

A Look At USA Rare Earth (USAR) Valuation After Recent Share Price Moves: Used for analyst fair value estimate, EBITDA projection, and production milestone context Alpha Vantage News Sentiment: Used for federal funding deal structure, short interest data, ethics investigation details, and dilution estimates Fuse API Stock Data: Used for Reddit sentiment scores, activity levels, financial metrics, and going concern disclosures Fuse API Price Performance: Used for USAR and MP Materials year-to-date price performance figures

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Still one of the biggest names in the computing world, IBM (NYSE:IBM) shed over 16% year to date heading into mid-March, a jarring reversal for a stock that closed Q4 earnings at $314.84 with momentum. What was driving this result? Well, on February 23, Anthropic announced its Claude Code tool could automate the COBOL modernization work at the heart of IBM’s consulting business, sending shares down nearly 13% in a single session. Reddit lit up overnight, and the debate captures exactly where IBM stands: a company with strong fundamentals trying to convince the market that AI is a tailwind, not an existential threat.

The Anthropic Shock That Moved IBM’s Sentiment Floor Social sentiment swung violently after February 23. Activity scores spiked to 59, with 224 comments, flooding r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks, and r/stockmarket simultaneously. Sentiment whipsawed from 88 (very bullish) to 32 (bearish) within 48 hours, reflecting a community split on whether the selloff was rational or overdone.

IBM crashed 13% because the market found out LLMs can write code — see the original post: IBM crashed 13% because the market found out LLMs can write code, bought $190k by u/unknown in r/wallstreetbets.

IBM crashed 13% because the market found out LLMs can write code, bought $190k
by u/unknown in wallstreetbets The post linked above captures the market’s immediate reaction to the Anthropic announcement, with the author framing the selloff as a direct consequence of LLMs encroaching on IBM’s core consulting work.

That post pulled 3,729 upvotes and 561 comments at peak, with r/wallstreetbets users treating the dip as a buying opportunity. On r/stocks, the tone was colder. A thread titled “IBM just had its worst drop in decades” gathered 454 upvotes and 104 comments, focused on structural risk.

IBM just had its worst drop in decades
by u/unknown in stocks The r/stocks thread above focused on whether IBM’s consulting segment faces a structural, not cyclical, threat from AI code generation tools.

A third thread, “IBM sinks as Anthropic positions Claude Code as the ideal tool for code modernization,” drew 868 upvotes and framed the threat plainly: Anthropic is targeting IBM’s most defensible revenue stream.

IBM sinks as Anthropic positions Claude Code as the ideal tool for code modernization
by u/unknown in stocks The thread above highlighted how Anthropic’s explicit targeting of COBOL modernization — IBM’s highest-margin consulting work — rattled investors who had viewed that segment as insulated from software disruption.

The bearish case rests on three concerns:

IBM’s consulting segment accounts for roughly a third of revenue, and was down 2% in Q4, and contracted again in Q1 2025 Claude Code directly targets COBOL modernization, high-margin work that IBM has historically owned, without serious software competition Total debt climbed to $55 billion billion, down $1.6 billion YoY, limiting flexibility to respond to competitive shifts By mid-March, sentiment stabilized to neutral, scores in the 42 to 58 range, with activity returning to low levels.

This infographic details IBM’s current social sentiment score of 42 (Neutral) as of March 13, 2026, and traces its recent volatility influenced by the Anthropic Claude code announcement. The Fundamentals Behind the Noise Looking at IBM’s Q4 results, they were mostly strong, with revenue hitting $17.6 billion, up 1% year over year, beating estimates by $493 million. Full-year free cash flow reached $12.7 billion, the highest in over a decade. Additionally, the IBM Z mainframe surged 67% in Q4, and the generative AI book of business crossed $5 billion, which, as CEO Arvind Krishna noted on the earnings call that “Gen AI now represents over a third of consulting bookings,” a figure that shows IBM is capturing AI demand inside the same consulting business the market fears is being disrupted.

IBM’s quantum announcement added another layer, unveiling a quantum-centric supercomputing reference architecture with a demonstrated capability to simulate a 303-atom protein. The company says it remains on track for a fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029. Analysts hold an average price target of $318, compared with a current price near $247.

The Confluent acquisition, expected to close midyear 2026, will test whether IBM can accelerate its data platform strategy fast enough to offset consulting headwinds. Institutional buyers remain: Franklin Resources (NYSE:BEN) added 849,500 shares recently, and Invesco (NYSE:IVZ) increased its stake by 2.2%. The stock carries a 2.7% dividend yield, backed by consecutive quarterly payments since 1916, and an analyst average price target of $318, compared with a current price near $247.

Investors interested in stocks from the Business - Services sector have probably already heard of Concentrix Corporation (CNXC) and UL Solutions Inc. (ULS). But which of these two stocks presents investors with the better value opportunity right now?

Investors looking for stocks in the Financial - Investment Bank sector might want to consider either Goldman Sachs (GS) or MarketAxess (MKTX). But which of these two companies is the best option for those looking for undervalued stocks?

Investors looking for stocks in the Financial - Investment Management sector might want to consider either Patria Investments (PAX - Free Report) or Carlyle Group (CG - Free Report) . But which of these two stocks is more attractive to value investors? We'll need to take a closer look to find out.

There are plenty of strategies for discovering value stocks, but we have found that pairing a strong Zacks Rank with an impressive grade in the Value category of our Style Scores system produces the best returns. The Zacks Rank is a proven strategy that targets companies with positive earnings estimate revision trends, while our Style Scores work to grade companies based on specific traits.

Currently, Patria Investments has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy), while Carlyle Group has a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold). This means that PAX's earnings estimate revision activity has been more impressive, so investors should feel comfortable with its improving analyst outlook. But this is just one factor that value investors are interested in.

Value investors also tend to look at a number of traditional, tried-and-true figures to help them find stocks that they believe are undervalued at their current share price levels.

Our Value category highlights undervalued companies by looking at a variety of key metrics, including the popular P/E ratio, as well as the P/S ratio, earnings yield, cash flow per share, and a variety of other fundamentals that have been used by value investors for years.

PAX currently has a forward P/E ratio of 7.29, while CG has a forward P/E of 9.79. We also note that PAX has a PEG ratio of 0.46. This popular metric is similar to the widely-known P/E ratio, with the difference being that the PEG ratio also takes into account the company's expected earnings growth rate. CG currently has a PEG ratio of 0.87.

Another notable valuation metric for PAX is its P/B ratio of 1.2. The P/B ratio pits a stock's market value against its book value, which is defined as total assets minus total liabilities. For comparison, CG has a P/B of 2.31.

Based on these metrics and many more, PAX holds a Value grade of A, while CG has a Value grade of C.

PAX has seen stronger estimate revision activity and sports more attractive valuation metrics than CG, so it seems like value investors will conclude that PAX is the superior option right now.

Investors with an interest in Electronics - Miscellaneous Products stocks have likely encountered both Flex (FLEX) and Rockwell Automation (ROK). But which of these two stocks offers value investors a better bang for their buck right now?

Key Takeaways FUTU reported Q4 2025 EPS of $3.07, up 79% YoY, as revenues climbed 45% to $827.2M.FUTU saw brokerage income rise 34.6% and interest income increase 50.2%, with other income jumping 78.7%.FUTU's trading volume hit a record HK$3.98T as funded accounts rose 39.6% and client assets surged 65.9%. Futu Holdings (FUTU - Free Report) reported fourth-quarter 2025 net income of HK$23.92 ($3.07) per American Depositary Share, rising 79.2% year over year.

 Revenues rose 45.3% year over year to US$827.2 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.97%, driven by broad-based strength across brokerage commissions, interest income and other service revenue streams.

FUTU's Q4 2025 in DetailBrokerage commission and handling charge income rose 34.6% year over year to $355.9 million, supported by higher overall trading volumes, partially offset by a mild decline in the blended commission rate.

Interest income climbed 50.2% year over year to $390.3 million, reflecting increased contributions from the securities borrowing and lending business, bank deposits and margin financing activity.

Other income advanced 78.7% year over year to US$81.0 million, driven by growth in fund distribution service income and IPO subscription service charge income.

Key Metrics for FUTUTotal funded accounts reached 3,365,414 as of Dec. 31, 2025, rising 39.6% year over year. FUTU added 234,000 net new funded accounts during the fourth quarter, an increase of 9% year over year.

Total brokerage accounts rose 29.8% year over year to 5,948,093, while the total registered user base grew 16% year over year to 29.2 million.

Total client assets reached HK$1.23 trillion as of Dec. 31, 2025, up 65.9% year over year, as robust net asset inflows were offset by depreciation in clients' Hong Kong stock holdings.

Total trading volume reached a record HK$3.98 trillion (US$511.3 billion) in the fourth quarter of 2025, rising 37.8% year over year, with U.S. stock trading volume accounting for HK$3.04 trillion (US$390.6 billion) and Hong Kong stock turnover contributing HK$821.1 billion (US$105.5 billion) to the total.

Margin financing and securities lending balance rose 33.1% year over year to HK$67.7 billion (US$8.7 billion), driven primarily by higher U.S. stock margin trading activity and short-term financing demand from Hong Kong IPO activity during the quarter.

Wealth management client assets grew 62% year over year to HK$179.6 billion (US$23.1 billion). Futu expanded product offerings across markets, including funds focused on high dividends in Hong Kong, domestic equity-focused funds in Singapore and Shariah-compliant gold tracker funds in Malaysia. The number of IPO distribution and investor relations clients stood at 600 as of quarter end, up 24.5% year over year.

FUTU's Operating DetailsTotal costs declined 6.1% year over year to US$93.6 million. Gross profit rose 56.2% year over year to US$733.6 million. Gross margin expanded to 88.7% from 82.5% in the fourth quarter of 2024, reflecting operating leverage on strong top-line growth alongside lower interest expenses tied to the securities borrowing and lending business.

Total operating expenses increased 8.6% year over year to $200.8 million. Research and development expenses rose 26.8% year over year to $65.1 million, reflecting increased headcount to support crypto and artificial intelligence initiatives. Selling and marketing expenses grew 9.2% year over year to $65.1 million, largely in line with growth in net new funded accounts, while customer acquisition costs remained flat year over year. General and administrative expenses declined 4.6% year over year to $70.6 million, primarily due to lower professional service expenses.

Income from operations increased 87% year over year to $532.8 million. Operating margin expanded to 64.4% from 50% in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Net income rose 80.2% year over year to $432.9 million. Net income margin expanded to 52.3% from 42.2% in the year-ago quarter. Non-GAAP adjusted net income, which excludes share-based compensation expenses, rose 77.0% year over year to $444million.

Balance Sheet of FUTUAs of Dec. 31, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were HK$10.47 billion (US$1.34 billion) compared to HK$10.72 billion as of Sept. 30, 2025. Cash held on behalf of clients declined to HK$113.4 billion from HK$127.6 billion in the prior quarter, reflecting lower client payables tied to a moderation in Hong Kong equity market activity.

Borrowings rose modestly to HK$12.14 billion (US$1.56 billion) as of Dec. 31, 2025, from HK$11.82 billion as of Sept. 30, 2025, reflecting continued financing activity to support platform operations and margin lending growth.

FUTU’s Zacks Ranks & Other Stocks to ConsiderFUTU currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Some other top-ranked stocks in the broader Zacks Finance sector are Nelnet (NNI - Free Report) , PhenixFIN (PFX - Free Report) and ProAssurance (PRA - Free Report) .

Nelnet, PhenixFIN and ProAssurance each sport a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Nelnet’s 2026 EPS is pegged at $9.2 per share, down 23.21% year over year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PhenixFin’s 2026 EPS is pegged at $2.5 per share, down 1.96% year over year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ProAssurance’s 2026 EPS is pegged at $1.7 per share, down 33.95% year over year.

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Bitcoin jumped hard. The cryptocurrency hit $73,800 on March 13, marking its highest price in a month as geopolitical chaos in Iran sent investors scrambling for alternatives to traditional assets.

The surge comes after Bitcoin faced some pretty brutal sentiment earlier this year. Traders were basically expecting more pain, but the Iran conflict changed everything fast. Oil prices fell at the same time, which helped ease some economic pressure globally, though analysts say that’s not really the main driver here. Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against political mess seems to be the bigger story.

Just weeks ago, things looked grim.

Bitcoin’s recent momentum stands in sharp contrast to its earlier struggles this year. Market participants had braced for further declines, with sentiment hitting historically low levels. But the current geopolitical climate shifted dynamics abruptly, catching many off guard. Institutional investors are increasingly viewing Bitcoin as a haven amid political instability, and that perception has bolstered its price even as traditional markets remain volatile.

JPMorgan analysts noted that the cryptocurrency’s resilience in volatile times is attracting renewed interest from both retail and institutional investors. They see the shift as a response to broader economic uncertainties made worse by the conflict. Meanwhile, Binance reported a 25% increase in Bitcoin trading volume over the past week, showing growing demand as traders navigate the market’s unpredictable nature.

The broader crypto market didn’t follow Bitcoin’s lead. Ethereum and other altcoins showed modest gains, lacking the momentum seen with the leading cryptocurrency. That highlights the unique circumstances affecting Bitcoin right now.

Traditional financial markets showed mixed reactions on March 13. The S&P 500 saw a slight decline, reflecting investor caution amid ongoing international events. The contrast underscores Bitcoin’s distinct position as an alternative asset during times of crisis. As tensions in Iran continue, Bitcoin’s role as a financial refuge is becoming more pronounced, leading to increased trading volumes across major exchanges. More on this topic: Bitcoin Whales Drive Massive Buying Spree.

Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy and prominent Bitcoin advocate, reiterated his bullish stance on the cryptocurrency. Saylor said on social media that Bitcoin’s current trajectory reinforces its status as a robust store of value, particularly during periods of geopolitical instability. His comments continue to influence market perceptions and investor sentiment, adding fuel to the rally.

Coinbase reported an influx of new account registrations, with a 15% increase over the past week. The surge in new users suggests retail investors are re-entering the market, drawn by Bitcoin’s recent performance and the allure of potential gains amid economic uncertainty. But volatility persists, and price swings remain a characteristic feature with potential for rapid changes as new developments unfold.

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz highlighted that Bitcoin’s current price level reflects its growing acceptance as a “digital gold” alternative. Novogratz emphasized that the cryptocurrency’s resilience in the face of geopolitical tensions is attracting both seasoned investors and newcomers looking for a stable asset. He thinks the Iran situation is pretty much proving Bitcoin’s worth as a crisis hedge.

Kraken saw a 30% boost in Bitcoin trading activity. CEO Jesse Powell attributed the increase to heightened market volatility driven by the Iran conflict. Powell noted that such geopolitical events often drive investors to seek refuge in decentralized assets like Bitcoin, reinforcing its status as a safe haven. Trading volumes across exchanges are reporting higher activity levels, underscoring Bitcoin’s evolving role in the global financial landscape.

And regulatory concerns linger. Despite Bitcoin’s surge, regulatory scrutiny continues to loom over the crypto market. Authorities worldwide are observing developments closely, with potential policy changes that could influence future performance. No official statement has been released by major exchanges or regulatory bodies regarding potential impacts or policy shifts. Related coverage: Bitcoin Futures Hit Five Times Spot.

Grayscale Investments announced on March 13 that its Bitcoin Trust reached a record $4 billion in assets under management. CEO Michael Sonnenshein said the trust’s growth is a testament to Bitcoin’s expanding role in diversified portfolios. The milestone reflects growing institutional interest in Bitcoin as a strategic asset, even as market watchers keep a close eye on Bitcoin’s next moves.

Market participants maintain a watchful stance as they assess the unfolding geopolitical and market conditions. Bitcoin’s behavior in the coming weeks will be pivotal as it navigates an intricate mix of factors influencing its trajectory. The cryptocurrency’s recent performance doesn’t eliminate the inherent risks associated with crypto investments, but it’s clearly carved out a unique position during this crisis.

Gold prices simultaneously dropped 2.1% to $2,018 per ounce as investors rotated into Bitcoin, marking an unusual divergence between the two traditional safe-haven assets. Central banks in Switzerland and Singapore increased their Bitcoin allocations by 8% and 12% respectively during the same period.

Fidelity’s Bitcoin ETF recorded $340 million in net inflows on March 13 alone, the largest single-day influx since its January launch. BlackRock’s competing Bitcoin fund saw similar momentum with $280 million in new investments, suggesting institutional appetite remains robust despite regulatory uncertainties surrounding digital assets.

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In brief Token2049 and The Open Network conferences scheduled in Dubai have been canceled or postponed amid the Iran conflict. Conference organizers noted the importance of safety for their attendees and sponsors. Token2049 will still host its event in Singapore later this year. A pair of upcoming crypto conferences scheduled in Dubai have been canceled or postponed for the safety of attendees and organizers amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and the Iran war conflict. 

Following the Thursday cancelation of The Open Network’s (TON) scheduled Gateway event in Dubai, Token2049 announced Friday that it too would forgo hosting an event in Dubai this year, opting to postpone its planned April event until 2027 instead.

“In collaboration with our partners and stakeholders, and in light of the ongoing uncertainty in the region and its impact on safety, international travel, and logistics, Token2049 Dubai will be postponed to 21–22 April 2027,” the event posted on X. 

The safety and experience of our community always comes first.

In collaboration with our partners and stakeholders, and in light of the ongoing uncertainty in the region and its impact on safety, international travel and logistics, TOKEN2049 Dubai will be postponed to 21–22… pic.twitter.com/Pw4k5nApQ3

— TOKEN2049 (@token2049) March 13, 2026

The message shared similar sentiment with Thursday’s announcement from the Telegram-linked TON, which made the decision to cancel entirely its Dubai event with the hopes of producing a different event format sometime later this year.

Ticket holders for the TON event can expect a refund in the next 14 days, but Token2049 attendees will have the option of using their ticket at the event next year, or transferring their ticket to the conference’s Singapore event later this year. 

It is not immediately clear if attendees or sponsors for Token2049 can seek a refund if they are unwilling to attend next year, or in the case of attendees, unable to transfer their ticket to Singapore. Tickets to the event run from $699 for early bird pricing, to $1,499 for full price tickets. Special access spots, which come with VIP access, a private lounge, and more, sell for $5,999, according to a ticketing portal page that’s still open on the website. 

Event organizers are expected to reach out to sponsors directly, but a representative for the conference did not immediately respond to Decrypt’s request for comment. 

As for those who may have already booked travel plans for the event, originally scheduled for April 29 and 30, Token2049 organizers encouraged would-be attendees to check with their hotels and airlines about modifying their reservations. 

“We know this is disappointing news for many of you who have already made plans, and we don’t take that lightly,” the Token2049 website reads. “Preparations for the event were progressing strongly. However, ensuring the global crypto industry can gather safely, and at the scale and quality that define Token2049, remains our top priority.”

The Dubai event was slated to host notable speakers including Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino, and Circle co-founder Jeremy Allaire.

Daily Debrief NewsletterStart every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.

Crypto is having one of its best days in weeks. Bitcoin has pushed above $73,000, Ethereum has cleared $2,180, and the total crypto market has added $90 billion in value in the past 15 hours alone. Here is what is actually driving it.

The Numbers FirstBitcoin: Up 4.80% to $72,867, adding $60 billion to its market cap in 15 hoursEthereum: Up 6.11% to $2,170, adding $15.2 billion to its market capXRP: Up 4.66% to $1.43, with $3.3 billion in daily volumeSolana: Up 6.94% to $91.61Dogecoin: Up 5.20% to $0.098Total market cap: $2.49 trillion, up 4.82%Short liquidations: Nearly $200 million wiped out in 15 hoursThe Fear and Greed Index sits at 37, still in fear territory, which tells you this rally is happening while most of the market remains cautious. That is often when the sharpest moves occur.

What Actually Triggered the MoveThree macro data prints dropped today and the market liked what it saw, at least partially.

Inflation cooling. The PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, came in at 2.8% against expectations of 2.9%. Lower than expected inflation reduces pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates elevated, which is historically good for risk assets including crypto.

Jobs market holding up. JOLTS Job Openings came in at 6,946,000 against expectations of 6,700,000. A stronger jobs market signals economic resilience, which reduces fears of a hard recession that would drag crypto down alongside everything else.

GDP slowing but not crashing. US Q4 GDP came in at 0.7% against expectations of 1.4%. Growth is slowing, which adds to the case for the Fed to ease monetary conditions sooner rather than later.

Put those three together and the market read a clear message: inflation is easing, the economy is not collapsing, and rate cuts may be back on the table. That combination is fuel for crypto.

The Short Squeeze EffectNearly $200 million in short positions were liquidated as prices moved higher. When traders who bet against the market are forced to close their positions, they have to buy back the assets they shorted, which adds upward pressure on top of the organic buying already happening. This is called a short squeeze and it accelerates moves that are already in motion.

The result was a fast, clean run higher across the entire market rather than a slow grind, which is exactly what short liquidation events look like in practice.

Where Things Stand NowThe Altcoin Season Index sits at 40 out of 100, leaning toward Bitcoin dominance but showing altcoins beginning to participate more actively. The average crypto RSI is at 61.17, approaching overbought territory but not there yet, which shows there is still room to move before the market needs to cool off.

The important level for Bitcoin is holding above $72,000. If it can close the day above that, the path toward $75,000 and beyond opens up.

Trust with CoinPedia:CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017. All content is created by our expert panel of analysts and journalists, following strict Editorial Guidelines based on E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness). Every article is fact-checked against reputable sources to ensure accuracy, transparency, and reliability. Our review policy guarantees unbiased evaluations when recommending exchanges, platforms, or tools. We strive to provide timely updates about everything crypto & blockchain, right from startups to industry majors.

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Bitcoin (BTC) aimed for five-week highs at Thursday’s Wall Street open as US inflation trends stayed on track.

Key points:

US inflation data keeps crypto and stocks higher as BTC price action tests $74,000 again.

Bitcoin traders diverge over the future of the move, with a “bearish retest” risking a new price collapse.

BTC/USD finally recrosses its 50-day moving average trend line.

PCE inflation emboldens Bitcoin bullsData from TradingView confirmed new local BTC price highs near $74,000 following the January print of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Known as the Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation gauge, January PCE matched market expectations, coming in at 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, per data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

PCE Index % change (screenshot). Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
While still at its highest levels since late 2023, the result appeared to soothe risk assets, with US stocks up around 0.5% at the time of writing. 

In doing so, both risk assets and crypto began to diverge from a positive correlation to oil seen over the week. WTI crude was down 2% on the day at around $95 per barrel.

CFDs on WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewBTC price forecast: $79,000 or “bearish retest?”Commenting on Bitcoin, crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe was cautiously upbeat on the outlook.

“Resistance zone for me is between $76-79K for Bitcoin. I don't expect a fast breakout in one-go, but I would assume that we're going to see some extra momentum occur on the altcoin markets in that window,” he wrote in a post on X. 

“In the meantime; if Bitcoin gets there, it provides a monthly engulfing candle and therefore, it erases the entire correction of February.”BTC/USDT 12-hour chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X
Others stayed on edge, with trader Daan Crypto Trades warning of a “large drop” if the current trading zone collapsed.

$BTC If this level breaks, it's time for a large drop. pic.twitter.com/9A6DaICCs3

— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) March 13, 2026 Trader Roman, already bearish, described the ongoing shift higher on BTC/USD as a “bearish retest.”

“RSI bear divs, bear price action (volume down + price up), & complete reset of MACD,” he summarized, referring to the relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) price indicators on daily time frames.

BTC/USD one-day chart with RSI, MACD data. Source: Roman/X
In fresh updates on his Telegram channel on the day, meanwhile, independent analyst Filbfilb focused on open interest (OI).

Market observers, he said, should watch for OI to “ditch” — an event that would precede the end of the push higher.

Exchange Bitcoin OI (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
“No sign yet,” he acknowledged, noting that price was now interacting with its 50-day simple moving average (SMA). 

As Cointelegraph reported, this was a key overhead resistance zone of interest during previous breakout attempts.

BTC/USD one-day chart with 50 SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThis article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

Hyperliquid [HYPE] is seeing a surge in market activity as trading volumes across its ecosystem continue to expand.

Over the past two weeks, real-world asset (RWA) trading on the platform has repeatedly broken records. Open Interest (OI) has climbed above $1.3 billion, while weekend trading volume has exceeded $1.9 billion.

The network activity could have hedged the market hours. Unlike traditional financial markets that operate within fixed hours, Hyperliquid provides 24/7 price discovery for assets such as oil, metals, and indices.

Growing trading activity aids bulls The surge in RWA trading activity strengthens Hyperliquid’s long-term bullish bias. Bringing traditional assets onto decentralized infrastructure expands the platform’s market reach. It also introduces new liquidity sources into the ecosystem.

As adoption grows, traders and investors are likely to begin speculating on how this expansion could influence the HYPE token’s price performance.

With the network trading volume trailing above $1.7 billion throughout the last four days, most traders are likely to add more positions ahead of a further rally.

Source: CoinGass HYPE rallies after trendline rebound From a technical standpoint, the token has already begun to react. On the daily chart, HYPE has staged a strong recovery since its price action retested a trend line support back on the 26th of February at around $25.64.

In fact, the token has rallied by approximately 48% from the bounce to the current trading price, reflecting renewed bullish momentum.

The price is now testing its most recent high at $38.25, placing the market at a key decision point. With most investors projecting the volatility to skyrocket at this key price level, a further rally is more likely to unfold.

Notably, the token prices are still trading above the 50-day EMA support.

Source: TradingView Funding rate signals undervaluation Notably, derivatives data offers another important signal: at press time, HYPE’s Funding Rate remained negative at –0.0072%. Historically, negative Funding Rates suggest the asset may be undervalued compared to trader positioning. This often attracts investors and institutions to add long positions, anticipating potential upside.

Source: Coinglass Several liquidity clusters at $40 affirm it as a key target Liquidity data highlights significant liquidity clusters sitting around the $40 psychological level. These zones typically attract price movement as markets seek to clear resting orders. If bullish momentum continues and the current structure holds, traders may target this level in the near term.

As it stands, the combination of record RWA trading activity, rising token momentum, and negative Funding Rates suggests that HYPE remains in a strong speculative phase. The next move will likely depend on whether buyers can maintain control as the market approaches its recent highs.

Source: CoinGlass Final Summary Hyperliquid’s RWA trading surges past $1.3 billion in OI, highlighting growing demand for 24/7 tokenized markets.

HYPE has rallied 48% from trend line support, with $40 liquidity clusters emerging as the next major target.

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Bitcoin (BTC) is grinding higher above the $71K–72K zone, shrugging off a stronger dollar, surging oil and Middle East war jitters while global stocks wobble.

A Modest Win For Bitcoin During the London morning, bitcoin held firm near the top of the day’s range while regional equity indices traded mixed and volatility in energy and FX markets remained elevated. European desks saw dip‑buying interest each time BTC approached the $71K handle, suggesting that buyers are willing to defend this area despite the macro noise.

Bitcoin’s resilience stands out as the Iran war has pushed oil sharply higher and raised the risk of a full‑blown energy shock, with some officials warning crude could even test the far higher levels of $200 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz disruption worsens, as seen in a statement issued by Iran on Wednesday. This slight surge supports the idea that BTC has passed the first stress test of the Iran shock and its aftermath.

Historically, such spikes in energy and inflation expectations have been bad news for Bitcoin, as tighter financial conditions sap liquidity from speculative assets. Yet, BTC is now consolidating near the upper end of its recent range instead of revisiting the lows seen on earlier Middle East headlines. This doesn’t come as a surprise for traders closely following the leading cryptocurrency movement around the Iran geopolitical conflict. As reported on an article from yesterday, “Bitcoin tends to respond positively when macro conditions become more supportive of risk assets”.

Caution Continues To Be Wise Despite this positive trend, traders should not (yet) claim victory. As reported yesterday by our sister website NewsBTC, Mike McGlone, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist, warned that bitcoin could still fall back toward and potentially below the $10,000 area. As he argues, BTC remains trapped in a “broader macro unwind tied to deflationary pressure, overstretched risk assets and what he described as excess across the digital-asset complex”.

For now, McGlone believes that bitcoin is still behaving like risk assets in a bear phase, which fuels the narrative that bitcoin is no longer behaving like the “digital gold” it has been claimed to be.

While geopolitical chaos continues to roil both RWAs and digital assets, traders would do well seeing each bitcoin bounce as a rally into volatility, not as hard evidence that the tide has definitively turned in BTC’s favor.

BTC’s price trends to the upside on the daily chart, reaching the highs $72k. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Cover image from Perplexity, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview

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Binance Coin (BNB) has surged in the last 24 hours, climbing past the $666 price level. This comes as a golden cross emerged on the asset’s price chart. The development extends BNB’s weekly gain by 4.9% and the monthly uptick by 12.81%.

Market recovery adds to Binance Coin’s bullish momentumAs per CoinMarketCap data, Binance Coin is exchanging hands at $668.24, which represents a 2.5% increase in the last 24 hours. The asset’s trading volume also looks strong as it jumped by 18.18% to $1.91 billion within the same time frame.

Notably, a golden cross emerges when a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term moving average. Market participants consider this technical signal a bullish indicator, especially when supported by strong trading volume.

Binance Coin Price Chart | Source: TradingView/CoinMarketCapBinance Coin’s volume has shown a huge boost, hence, the BNB price soared from a daily low of $646.49 to hit a peak of $668.30 on the crypto market.

The asset’s bullish performance coincides with a broader market 2.34% gain as crypto assets witness a break from the bearish pressure triggered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

If BNB is able to hold the current momentum and stabilize above the $650 price level amid strong volume, a breakout is possible. The coin could retest the $688-$718 zone.

BNB's continued battle with XRP for market rankBinance Coin’s price performance remains key to the asset retaining fourth place in terms of market cap ranking. 

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XRP poses a huge threat to BNB in the battle for the top four spots. In January 2026, when XRP traded above $2.30, it was closing in on BNB, and the current difference of approximately $5 billion in market cap is due to XRP’s inability to reclaim the $2 zone.

Interestingly, in spite of XRP’s weak performance, the coin flipped Binance Coin around in mid-February 2026. At the time, BNB was trading below the $620 price level. This signals that XRP remains a resilient asset and could potentially displace BNB from the third-ranked cryptocurrency.

PI coin has jumped 10% after a new exchange listing and rising anticipation around the project’s annual Pi Day event. The price movement followed an announcement from the crypto exchange Kraken confirming support for the PI token.

Concurrently, the market attention also increased as the network continues with technical upgrades on its mainnet infrastructure.

The combination of wider exchange access and ecosystem updates has pushed trading activity higher. Market charts show buyers gaining control after months of weaker price movement.

Pi Coin Kraken's Listing Expands Trading AccessKraken confirmed that it will list Pi Network’s PI token, opening the asset to a broader group of traders. The exchange ranks among the larger global crypto platforms and provides access to several regions.

After the listing news circulated, the token price moved higher across multiple exchanges. Market trackers recorded a jump of roughly 10% during early trading hours. At press time, the PI price was trading at $0.2747, an 8.98% surge from the 24-hour low.

PI is already available on several exchanges, including OKX, Gate, and Bitget. The addition of Kraken increases liquidity and visibility for the token in the broader crypto market.

Not all platforms support the project. Bybit chief executive Ben Zhou previously declined to list PI and described the project as a scam. He referred to a 2023 warning issued by Chinese police that raised concerns about the project’s activities.

Mobile-based Mining Model Attracts a Large User BasePi Network uses a mobile-first model that allows users to mine tokens through a smartphone application. Users tap the app daily and form trust circles that support the network’s consensus system.

The project does not rely on traditional proof-of-work mining used by cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. Instead, it uses a trust graph model derived from the Stellar consensus protocol.

The network launched an externally connected mainnet in February 2025. At that time, the team reported around 19 million KYC-verified users and about 10 million migrated accounts on the chain.

The large user base has kept community activity high. Many participants expect updates and product announcements during Pi Day, which takes place on March 14 each year.

Mainnet Upgrade and Pi Fuel Community ActivityPi Network is currently working on a protocol upgrade linked to Step 3 node migration. The upgrade aims to improve network stability and prepare the infrastructure for further ecosystem development.

Developers have been encouraging node operators to migrate during the current phase. The process forms part of the network’s long-term roadmap.

Community interest also increases each year around Pi Day. The event often includes product announcements, ecosystem updates, or development milestones.

This year’s event arrives while the project continues expanding exchange listings and technical upgrades. These developments have contributed to renewed trading activity in recent sessions.

PI Coin Technical Indicators Show Strong MomentumMarket charts show a recovery after several months of declining prices. The token formed a rounded base between the $0.13 and $0.15 range earlier in the year.

Since that period, PI has produced higher lows and higher highs on the daily timeframe. A move above the $0.20 level confirmed a shift toward a stronger trend.

Technical indicators also reflect rising momentum. The MACD line remains above the signal line, and both continue to move above the zero level.

Source: TradingView

The relative strength index stands near 76 on the daily chart. This level suggests the token is in overbought territory and may face short-term cooling.

Analysts identify resistance between $0.28 and $0.30. If price closes above that range, the next levels appear near $0.32 and $0.35.

On the downside, the first support zone stands near $0.25. A deeper pullback could test the $0.22 to $0.20 region, which previously served as a breakout level.

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

The cryptocurrency Shiba Inu (SHIB) has every chance to finish the second week of March as one of the beneficiaries of the relief rally that we are currently observing on the market. Since the beginning of the week, the token has already added almost 17% to its price and is trading at $0.00000618. For comparison, its value on Monday stood at $0.00000527.

However, as the current picture on the SHIB price chart by TradingView suggests, the ceiling of growth has not yet been reached. Assessing the price from the perspective of the Bollinger Bands indicator, it can be said that further upside of around 22% still looks realistic for SHIB. 

Why Bollinger Bands signals more gains for Shiba Inu (SHIB)These figures are not out of thin air. Specifically, the 20-day moving average on the weekly time frame, which is fundamental for the Bollinger Bands, is currently located about 22% higher.

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For those unfamiliar with the indicator, it works as a price corridor that allows one not only to determine which bias is currently prevailing for the asset but also to outline strong resistance and support levels based on historical price data. Supporting the idea that SHIB may reach this level, which currently comes in around $0.00000760, is also the prevailing trend.

SHIB/USDT Weekly Chart, Source: TradingViewSince the moment Shiba Inu fell into the lower corridor of the Bollinger Bands on the price chart, which happened in September 2025, the token has tested this line twice. The first time was during the week of Oct. 6, and the second during the week of Jan. 5. 

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Adding fuel to the bullish forecast for SHIB is the fact that the current week is the most "green" for Shiba Inu. The last time the token demonstrated similar growth figures was during a week in December 2025, when the price of SHIB increased by 22.3% over seven days.

Mizuho analysts on Friday said that adjusted volume for Circle's USDC stablecoin has, year-to-date, surpassed that of Tether's USDT, the world's largest USD-pegged token by market supply.

"The data shows USDC vs. USDT volumes at 64% market share. This is a reversal in a long-term trend of USDT volumes surpassing USDC in 2019-2025," Mizuho said in a research note.

Mizuho's analysts qualified "adjusted volume" as a measurement of activity across "addresses that are labeled as entities related to CEXs (Centralized Exchanges), DEXs (Decentralized), or others, or those that have not transacted > 1K transactions or 10M volume in any 30-day period."

Or, as they further contextualized, they are measuring "transfers that look like a real person or institution actually moving money." This could include companies paying suppliers, users betting on Polymarket, or funds moving between a CEX and a DeFi protocol, the analysts said.

Image: USDC vs USDT volume. Source: Mizuho In terms of total supply, Tether's USDT is still the clear leader globally. USDT's total market cap is $184 billion, while USDC comes in at about $79 billion, according to The Block Data Dashboard.

Mizuho's analysts said USDC is the more popular option when it comes to everyday, real-world applications, as Circle's (CRCL) stablecoin is used more for payments.

"We believe that longer term, the stablecoin winner will be the one mostly used in everyday economic activity, rather than just the highest market cap. Looking at transaction volumes, we are encouraged to see USDC taking more share of the total pie," the analysts said.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

© 2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

TLDR Analysts at Luxor Technology’s Hashrate Index said oil shocks linked to the Iran conflict affect miners more through BTC price volatility than energy costs. Brent crude rose above $100 per barrel after tanker disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz before easing near $90. Hashrate Index estimated that about 90% of global hashrate operates in power markets with limited correlation to crude oil prices. The report stated that crude oil use in bitcoin mining is “essentially a rounding error” within overall network energy consumption. Hashprice fell to $27.89 per PH/s/day in February after bitcoin declined 23.8% from $78,000 to $65,000. Bitcoin miners face greater exposure to BTC price swings than rising energy bills after oil market turmoil linked to the Iran conflict. Luxor Technology’s Hashrate Index reported that crude shocks transmit weakly into most mining power markets. The analysis showed that revenue volatility, not electricity costs, poses the main risk.

Oil Market Shock Shows Limited Direct Impact on Mining Costs United States and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets disrupted tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 20% of the global oil supply moves through that corridor each day. Brent crude jumped from about $60 to above $100 per barrel before easing near $90.

Traders also used decentralized venues like Hyperliquid to trade oil derivatives outside regular hours. However, Hashrate Index said crude oil use in mining remains “essentially a rounding error.” Data from the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance and the Bitcoin Mining Council shows that over half the network uses non-fossil energy.

Hashrate Index estimated that about 90% of global hashrate operates in electricity markets with little crude correlation. The United States, Russia, and China hold the largest hashrate shares. Paraguay, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Canada, Ethiopia, and Kazakhstan follow.

Most of these markets rely on natural gas, coal, hydro, or geothermal sources. Therefore, oil price swings do not directly raise mining costs in most regions. Analysts said utility rate cycles also slow any pass-through into industrial electricity prices.

The Gulf states account for about 6% of global hashrate in oil-linked grids. When analysts include Iran, Kuwait, Qatar, and Libya, exposure rises to 8% to 10%. Still, the majority of miners remain outside crude-sensitive markets.

BTC Price Volatility Drives Hashprice Pressure Hashrate Index argued that macro effects from oil shocks weigh more on BTC price than on power costs. Higher crude prices can lift inflation expectations and shape interest rate outlooks. That shift can push capital toward lower-risk assets and pressure bitcoin.

The report linked revenue stress to the metric known as hashprice. Hashprice measures daily revenue earned per petahash of computing power. When BTC price falls, hashprice typically declines.

Data showed that hashprice dropped to $27.89 per PH/s/day in February. During that period, bitcoin slid 23.8% from around $78,000 to $65,000. The revenue decline compressed miner margins despite stable electricity costs.

Over the past year, miners who used rolling USD-denominated hashrate forward contracts outperformed spot mining. The analysis recorded outperformance of up to 8.2%. The data suggested hedging reduced exposure to BTC price swings.

Wenny Cai, chief operating officer at SynFutures, said geopolitical tensions briefly strengthened the U.S. dollar. She stated that a stronger dollar created a short-term macro headwind for risk assets. However, she added that global liquidity and Federal Reserve easing continued to support digital asset demand.

Analysts at Bitunix reported that bitcoin trades within a defined range. They placed resistance between $72,000 and $73,500 and support near $69,000. Bitcoin held above $71,000 as exchange-traded fund inflows tightened exchange supply.

According to the XRP Ledger foundation's official X handle, a new XRPL software version is now available: XRP Ledger Software version 3.1.2. Rippled version 3.1.2, the reference server implementation of the XRP Ledger protocol, fixes an edge case that can cause outages on public facing nodes.

Sneha Agrawal

With over four years of experience in covering and tracking the financial markets, Sneha Agrawal is a dedicated Crypto Journalist and Editor with passion for researching and writing the crypto pieces. She is currently leading the Block of Fame, here at CoinGape. She likes to keep track of political, legal and financial happenings all around the world - without which she deems her day incomplete. Apart from her Journalistic endeavours, she is a solo traveler, museum goer, and a keen reader of books.