Market Signal Briefing

XRPUSD – Daily Chart – 040126 – US Government Shutdown
XRP-Spot ETF Issuers Signal Breakout Year
The US XRP-spot ETF market has seen total net inflows of $1.18 billion since launching, outperforming the BTC-spot and ETH-spot ETF markets. Significantly, there are only five XRP-spot ETFs compared with 11 BTC-spot ETFs and nine ETH-spot ETFs.

For context, XRP-spot ETFs saw net inflows of $499.91 million in December, while BTC-spot and ETH-spot ETFs reported net outflows of $1.09 billion and $616.82 million, respectively.

Crucially, diverging flow trends signal a potential decoupling of XRP from BTC and the broader crypto market. Canary Funds CEO Steven McClurg recently discussed a potential decoupling, stating:

“XRP, I believe, is going to be a divergent asset, actually. […] Altcoins typically follow Bitcoin, but there are a handful of assets that I do believe will diverge in this manner and just watching XRP perform as everything’s going straight down and we continue to get inflows everyday and continue to hold up, I believe that it could look like another peak in XRP in 2026, when most of other crypto assets are going to be down.”

McClurg’s outlook underscored the significance of inflows into XRP-spot ETFs and the divergence from BTC-spot and ETH-spot ETFs.

Increased inflows into XRP-spot ETFs and the progress toward crypto-friendly legislation reinforce the constructive short- to medium-term bias.

For context, XRP surged 14.69% on July 17 after the US House of Representatives passed the Market Structure Bill. By contrast, BTC and ETH gained 0.39% and 3.10%, respectively.

XRPUSD – Daily Chart – 040126 – Market Structure Bill
The price action underscored XRP’s sensitivity to crypto-related regulatory developments on Capitol Hill, driven by the resolution of the SEC vs. Ripple case.

The US Court of Appeals approved Ripple and the SEC’s appeal withdrawal motions on August 22. The court ruling legitimized XRP as a non-security, paving the way to the US XRP-spot ETF market.

XRP Bullish Outlook Intact
XRP-spot ETF flow trends and crypto-related legislative developments reaffirmed the bullish short-term (1-4 weeks) outlook, with a $2.5 price target. Meanwhile, increased utility, expectations of Fed rate cuts, and the Senate passing the Market Structure Bill reinforce the positive longer-term price trajectories:

Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $3.0.
Longer-term (8-12 weeks) $3.66.

Key Risks Challenge Bullish Outlook
Several scenarios could unravel the positive outlook. These include:

The Bank of Japan declares a neutral interest rate of between 1.5% and 2.5%, signaling aggressive rate hikes. A higher neutral rate may trigger a yen carry trade unwind, which would weigh on risk assets.
US economic data and the Fed are cooling expectations of a March rate cut.
The MSCI delists digital asset treasury companies (DATs). Delistings are likely to temper interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
Partisan opposition to the Market Structure Bill.
XRP-spot ETFs report outflows.

These scenarios would likely push the token toward $1.75, indicating a bearish trend reversal.

Technical Indicators Continue to Signal Caution
XRP gained 0.60% on Saturday, January 3, consolidating the previous day’s 6.76% rally, closing at $2.0184. The token mirrored the broader crypto market cap, which advanced 0.71%.

Despite heading for a four-day winning streak, XRP traded below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), suggesting a bearish bias. While technicals remained bearish, bullish fundamentals are building, countering the technical structure.

Key technical levels to watch include:

Support levels: $2.0, $1.75, and then $1.50.
50-day EMA resistance: $2.0404.
200-day EMA resistance: $2.3472.
Resistance levels: $2.5, $3.0, and $3.66.

Looking at the daily chart, a breakout above the 50-day EMA would indicate a near-term bullish trend reversal. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA would bring the 200-day EMA and the $2.5 resistance level into play.

A breakout above the EMAs would reinforce the bullish medium-term outlook and the longer-term (8-12 weeks) $3.66 price target.

Dogecoin pops 4% amid memecoin rally as a short-term golden cross flashesTechnical indicators suggest Dogecoin's rally is supported by strong volume, but it must maintain key support levels to continue upward momentum.Updated Jan 4, 2026, 5:18 a.m. Published Jan 4, 2026, 5:18 a.m.

Dogecoin rose to $0.1516 as buyers pushed the token back through a key technical band on volume running well above its 30-day norm — a move that signals renewed speculative appetite in meme coins even as the broader market remains range-bound.

News backgroundDogecoin and Pepe helped drive a sharp meme coin bounce as traders leaned back into “meme season” positioning to start 2026. DOGE rose about 11% on the day in the broader rally, while PEPE gained roughly 17%, with other dog-themed names also advancing — Shiba Inu up about 8%, Bonk up nearly 11%, and Floki up close to 10%.

STORY CONTINUES BELOW

The move extended beyond large caps. Mog Coin climbed about 14% on the day and around 37% over seven days, while Popcat gained nearly 9% and is up more than 17% on the week — a pattern traders often interpret as speculative flows spilling from larger tokens into smaller, higher-beta names once liquidity returns.

CoinGecko’s GMCI Meme Index category showed a market value of roughly $33.8 billion with about $5.9 billion in 24-hour trading volume, suggesting the surge wasn’t confined to a single token. The backdrop remains familiar: bitcoin has been range-bound, liquidity uneven after the holidays, and traders are looking for a fast-moving place to express risk-on views without waiting for a clean macro catalyst.

That doesn’t necessarily signal a durable meme cycle. These bursts can be self-reinforcing in the short term but fragile when positioning becomes crowded or bitcoin slips, given leverage tends to amplify both upside and downside moves in the meme complex.

Technical analysisDOGE climbed 4.36% to $0.1516 over the 24-hour period ending Jan. 4, decisively outperforming the broader crypto market. The rally came with volume running stronger than trend — the 24-hour volume moving average is elevated relative to the 30-day average (+40.10%), a key confirmation signal traders watch when assessing whether a breakout is being supported by real participation.

Price action flipped structure late in the session as DOGE broke out of the $0.1422–$0.1431 consolidation pocket and built a new base above $0.1463, with sellers now identified around $0.1520–$0.1530. That zone is the next supply cluster, and it’s where momentum trades often face their first serious test after a clean rebound.

Short-term trend signals also improved. An hourly “golden cross” appeared — the 9-period SMA crossing above the 26-period SMA — which is not a classic long-timeframe golden cross, but it’s still meaningful in fast markets when paired with rising volume and a clean break through prior resistance. In other words: this wasn’t a quiet drift higher; it was a move that drew activity.

The immediate technical question is whether DOGE can hold $0.1463 on any pullback. If that level stays intact, it increases the odds that $0.1520–$0.1530 becomes a near-term target rather than a hard ceiling.

Price action summaryDOGE rose 4.36% to $0.1516, outperforming the broader marketVolume confirmation was strong: 24h volume trend is ~40% higher than the 30-day baselineDOGE flipped $0.1463 into support after clearing the $0.1422–$0.1431 rangeNext resistance sits at $0.1520–$0.1530, where prior supply is likely to reappearWhat traders should knowThis is a volume-confirmed momentum move inside a broader meme coin rebound — and that matters, because memes tend to act as a temperature check on risk appetite.

The setup is straightforward:

Bull case: If DOGE holds $0.1463 and consolidates above $0.1500, traders will likely keep pressing toward $0.1520–$0.1530. A clean push through that supply pocket opens room toward the next resistance band above.Bear case: If DOGE slips back below $0.1463, it would signal the breakout is losing sponsorship, with the prior range around $0.1432 becoming the next level to watch.Context: The meme complex can stay bid even when bitcoin is range-bound — but it’s also where positioning can unwind quickly if liquidity thins or broader markets wobble. That makes the support retest as important as the initial rally.In short: the volume backdrop is constructive, but DOGE now needs to prove it can convert $0.1463 into a durable floor before traders treat $0.1520–$0.1530 as a level to build above rather than sell into.

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KuCoin Hits Record Market Share as 2025 Volumes Outpace Crypto Market

Dec 22, 2025

KuCoin captured a record share of centralised exchange volume in 2025, with more than $1.25tn traded as its volumes grew faster than the wider crypto market.

What to know:

KuCoin recorded over $1.25 trillion in total trading volume in 2025, equivalent to an average of roughly $114 billion per month, marking its strongest year on record.This performance translated into an all-time high share of centralised exchange volume, as KuCoin’s activity expanded faster than aggregate CEX volumes, which slowed during periods of lower market volatility.Spot and derivatives volumes were evenly split, each exceeding $500 billion for the year, signalling broad-based usage rather than reliance on a single product line.Altcoins accounted for the majority of trading activity, reinforcing KuCoin’s role as a primary liquidity venue beyond BTC and ETH at a time when majors saw more muted turnover.Even as overall crypto volumes softened mid-year, KuCoin maintained elevated baseline activity, indicating structurally higher user engagement rather than short-lived volume spikes.View Full Report

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Bitcoin tops $91,000 with ether, dogecoin higher amid U.S. action on Venezuela

18 minutes ago

Political changes in Venezuela, including U.S. plans for involvement, influenced market volatility and trading dynamics.

What to know:

Bitcoin surged above $91,000 as traders extended a 2026 rebound amid geopolitical developments in Venezuela.Major cryptocurrencies like ether, solana, and cardano also posted gains, driven by a liquidation flush and increased risk appetite.Political changes in Venezuela, including U.S. plans for involvement, influenced market volatility and trading dynamics.Read full story

Journalist

Posted: January 4, 2026

The Solana-based DeFi super-app, Jupiter, is considering sunsetting the JUP token buyback. 

In a social media post on the 2nd of January, Siong Ong, Co-Founder and CTO of Jupiter, said they haven’t seen much impact from the program and felt it was a “waste” of resources. 

“We spent more than $70m on buyback last year, and the price obviously didn’t move much. We can use the $70m to give out for growth incentives for existing and new users.”

Ong was following the footsteps of Helium Founder Amir Haleem, who said they’ll “stop wasting money on HNT buybacks”, because the market isn’t concerned about the effort.

JUP community split  
Jupiter initiated the JUP buyback program in mid-February 2025 and has reportedly spent approximately $70 million. Moreover, Jupiter [JUP] rallied about 300% in the first month after the buyback launch.  

However, the token has printed new yearly lows in 2025, despite the aggressive buybacks that were previously viewed as bullish. At press time, it traded at $0.2, down from its peak of $1.8 –An 88% price crash. 

Source: JUP/USDT, TradingView 

However, the community was divided on whether to drop the buyback program. One user proposed sharing the revenue with stakers to increase staking yield and drive price. 

“With 753 million JUP staked, that’s almost $0.09 per JUP. For me personally, that would a really nice passive income.  That’s a 43% dividend yield. Of course the price would pump on such a news.”

But Ong wondered how the product would grow if everything were allocated to staking rewards.

For his part, analyst Fabiano stated there is currently no reason to hold the token because it is not tied to the protocol’s success (not equity). 

According to him, a short-term solution would be sharing revenue with stakers to reduce their quarterly dumping pressure. 

“What if we redirected those $10M toward staking rewards, instead of buying JUP for the Litterbox? At current prices, this could result in roughly 25% APY? -which is insanely attractive.”

Source: X

What’s next for JUP?
Other critics pointed out Pump.fun [PUMP] muted performance despite a massive buyback, adding that not all protocols should jump on the trend. 

However, the buyback programs have been successful for Hyperliquid [HYPE] and Aave [AAVE], particularly during periods of positive market sentiment. 

As of writing, it was unclear which proposal and direction the team would lean on following several pieces of feedback on the proposal. 

Jupiter has evolved from a DEX aggregator to a super-app spanning lending, prediction markets, and even perpetual trading. The ongoing development has also seen it scale cumulative revenue to $369 million. 

Source: DeFiLlama

Final Thoughts 

The Jupiter team appeared disappointed with the limited impact of its buyback program despite committing $70 million. 
But the community was split on the plan to stop the token buyback program.

BTC tapped a new multi-week peak after the attacks.

Following the first shock retracement after the initial explosion in Venezuela’s capital Caracas, bitcoin’s price actually rebounded immediately and surged to almost $91,800 to mark its highest price level since December 12.

Thus, the cryptocurrency added almost three grand since the attacks began from bottom to top before it retraced slightly to around $91,300 as of press time.

BREAKING: Bitcoin surges above $91,000 as over $60 million worth of levered shorts are liquidated in 1 hour.

Bitcoin is now up +$3,000 since the lows seen after the US began strikes on Venezuela last night. pic.twitter.com/ahNdYesrrD

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 4, 2026

In fact, most of the digital asset market is in the green now, which is the only one open during the weekends. Two of the tokens linked to the US President, WLFI and TRUMP, are among the biggest gainers, with the former skyrocketing by 14%, while the latter is up by nearly 7%.

Given the consequences of the attack and the fact that Trump said the US will run the Venezuela oil industry for now, analysts expect further volatility on Sunday at 6 PM ET when the oil futures open in some markets.

The Kobeissi Letter explained that Venezuela has over 300 billion barrels of crude oil reserves, which will reportedly be under US control. With oil prices at $57 per barrel, this would put the country’s total reserves at $17.3 trillion.

The analysts added that even if the US sells this oil for half the market rate, the value of $8.7 trillion would be larger than the GDP of all countries except China and the US. Consequently, they noted that “most people do not realize how much the world just changed,” and warned that more volatility is expected once financial markets, especially oil, open for trading.

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This is absolutely insane:

Venezuela currently has 303 billion barrels of crude oil reserves, which Trump says the US now controls.

Oil prices are trading at ~$57/barrel, making Venezuela’s total reserves worth $17.3 TRILLION.

Even if the US sells this oil for HALF of the…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 3, 2026

Tags:

The $crypto market is starting 2026 on a strong footing. Prices across major assets are trending higher, supported by renewed momentum and improving sentiment. The total market capitalization continues to rise, reflecting broad-based participation rather than isolated pumps.

Bitcoin Price Today: Setting the Tone Above $91K$Bitcoin remains the clear market driver. BTC is trading around $91,000–$92,000, recovering steadily from late-2025 volatility. The daily chart shows Bitcoin holding above key support near $85,000, while pushing toward higher resistance levels.

As long as $BTC stays firm above this zone, it continues to act as a confidence anchor for the entire crypto market. Traders usually buy Bitcoin right at support areas, as shown in the chart below.

BTC/USD 1D - TradingView

Crypto Prices Follow With Solid GainsSeveral large-cap altcoins are extending gains alongside Bitcoin:

$Ethereum is holding above $3,100, posting strong weekly performance$XRP remains above $2, up double digits on a weekly basis$Solana trades near $135, continuing its recovery trend$Dogecoin stands out with sharp gains, reflecting strong risk appetiteThis coordinated move suggests capital is rotating beyond Bitcoin into higher-beta assets.

Crypto Market Performance - coinmarketcap

Crypto Prediction 2026: What This Signals for Early 2026The current price action points to a constructive start to the year:

Bitcoin strength is providing stabilityAltcoins are responding with controlled upsideMomentum indicators suggest buyers remain activeWhile short-term pullbacks are always possible, the broader structure remains supportive as long as Bitcoin holds key levels.

Will Crypto Prices Go Up in 2026?Crypto prices continue to rise at the start of 2026, led by Bitcoin’s strength above $91K. With major altcoins following, the market is showing signs of confidence and continuation rather than exhaustion.

Bitcoin surged above the $91,000 level on Sunday, extending an early 2026 rebound across the broader cryptocurrency market as traders embraced renewed risk appetite. The rally lifted major digital assets including ether, solana, XRP, and cardano, with gains supported by short liquidations, improving market structure, and heightened geopolitical headlines linked to Venezuela.

During Asian morning trading hours, bitcoin was changing hands near $91,300, up roughly 1.4% on the day and more than 4% over the past week. Ethereum followed with a near 1% daily rise to around $3,150, bringing its seven-day gain to approximately 7%. Solana climbed about 1.6% on Sunday and has advanced more than 8% over the week, while XRP hovered just above $2, posting close to 10% weekly gains. Cardano also edged higher and is up roughly 8% over the same period.

The latest move came after a sharp liquidation event that flushed out crowded futures positioning and reset short-term leverage across crypto derivatives markets. According to market data, nearly $180 million in crypto futures positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours. Short positions accounted for about $133 million of that total, compared with $47 million from longs, highlighting how traders positioned against the rally were forced to cover as prices pushed higher.

Geopolitical developments also contributed to the improved risk tone. Traders reacted to rapidly evolving news out of Venezuela after U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States plans to “run” Venezuela, with a particular focus on the country’s oil resources. Venezuela’s Supreme Court granted Vice President Delcy Rodríguez acting presidential powers following the detention of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. authorities.

While crypto markets often treat geopolitical headlines as volatility catalysts rather than direct macro drivers, such events can influence sentiment, especially during periods of thinner liquidity. In these conditions, even modest spot buying can push prices through key technical levels, triggering stop-driven moves and accelerating gains through forced short covering.

<Copyright ⓒ TokenPost, unauthorized reproduction and redistribution prohibited>

HomeStock IdeasLong IdeasTech 

SummaryTSM is rapidly gaining foundry market share and now has a credible path to high 40s, or even 50%, 5‑year revenue CAGR, helped by Nvidia's incremental H200 demand for China shipments.TSM's 2026 price hikes and better‑than‑expected 2nm yields support a plausible new gross margin plateau above 60% from Q4 FY25 onward.TSM is accelerating its second Arizona fab, with 3nm production now targeted for 2027 instead of 2028, pulling forward advanced‑node US revenue.However, potential Taiwanese export restrictions could restrict leading‑edge node deployment overseas, slowing the revenue ramp from TSM's faster US fab build‑out.My valuation estimate leads me to 50-85% upside. I think the market is clearly mispricing TSM stock. The technicals also show an ideal buy setup. bo feng/iStock via Getty Images

Performance Assessment Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) (TSMWF), also known as TSMC, has outperformed the broader market index since my last bullish update on the stock:

Thesis After recent developments, my confidence in TSM

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of TSM either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

The Pentagon just awarded Alphabet a major defense contract.

The intersection of artificial intelligence (AI) and defense operations is dominated by one specific player: data mining specialist Palantir Technologies (PLTR 5.56%). While smaller, niche businesses -- such as BigBear.ai and C3.ai -- have made some inroads in defense tech, Palantir tends to be the name that surfaces more often than not when it comes to major public sector awards.

In early December, however, the Pentagon announced the creation of the GenAI.mil platform as part of the White House's AI Action Plan. Interestingly, the Department of Defense (DOD) tapped Alphabet (GOOGL +0.69%) (GOOG +0.48%) to lead this initiative.

Given Palantir's existing inroads with the DOD, it may be a surprise to see another big tech powerhouse win such an important contract. Below, I'll delve into the specifics surrounding this new deal and assess whether Alphabet has just dealt a significant blow to Palantir.

Image source: Getty Images.

What is GenAI.mil?
Earlier this year, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced the reinstatement of a framework called the Software Acquisition Pathway (SWP), which serves as a foundation for the Pentagon to more rapidly acquire and implement software tools for specific tasks and initiatives. Considering technological leadership has been a stated goal of the Trump administration, it's not surprising to see the creation of GenAI.mil and its enablement of more software systems across the Pentagon. The backbone of the program is Google's AI system, Gemini.

With the GenAI.mil platform, government workers will have access to a suite of generative AI tools. These include natural language conversation and agentic workflows.

Image source: Getty Images.

Is Alphabet really an interesting choice for this program?
When it comes to technology services in the public sector, Alphabet generally isn't the first name that comes to mind. Instead, awards from the DOD are more commonly granted to companies such as Boeing, Lockheed Martin, RTX, Northrop Grumman, L3Harris, and of course, Palantir.

Alphabet is no stranger to government contracting, though. In 2018, the company was selected to lead Project Maven -- a public-sector initiative to accelerate the adoption of machine learning and data analytics across military operations. However, some of Alphabet's employees took issue with the company's collaboration with the DOD and staged a protest. Subsequently, Alphabet did not renew the contract.

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Project Maven has since been taken over by Palantir. It has collaborated with the likes of Anduril, as well as other leading cloud infrastructure providers Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Microsoft on the deal.

Given the DOD already had some degree of familiarity with Alphabet's technological prowess in combination with Google's emerging presence in the AI realm, I don't find it completely shocking that Gemini was chosen for the GenAI.mil contract.

Should Palantir investors be worried?
Palantir has long been a beneficiary of government deal flow. The company's suite of AI tools -- Foundry, Gotham, and Apollo -- have proven to be backbones for mission-critical services within the defense landscape.

Where things become a little more nuanced is understanding why Google may have been a more optimal solution for GenAI.mil, specifically.

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Palantir specializes in aggregating unstructured data from disparate platforms and creating a unified workflow in the form of an ontology -- an advanced visualization in which decision makers can more easily make sense of messy information and run simulations with real-time data. In other words, Palantir is heavily leveraged for extremely specific, data-heavy applications.

Alphabet's Gemini platform offers a distinct value proposition. Gemini is purpose-built for broader, more generic tasks in which generative AI brings a new level of efficiency to the workforce.

Against this backdrop, Palantir's Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) should be able to coexist alongside Alphabet's Gemini ecosystem at the DOD. Given these dynamics, I don't think Alphabet's win in the GenAI.mil initiative is a blow to Palantir in the slightest.

If anything, I find the mechanics around the deal compelling, as it telegraphs to investors that the government is doubling down on its AI investments and spreading its budget across a body of high-performance players. For these reasons, investors may want to keep Alphabet on their radars, in addition to Palantir, when it comes to defense tech opportunities.

Adam Spatacco has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Boeing, L3Harris Technologies, Microsoft, Palantir Technologies, and RTX. The Motley Fool recommends C3.ai and Lockheed Martin and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Venezuela is unlikely to see any meaningful boost to crude output for years even if U.S. oil majors do invest the billions of dollars in the country that President Donald Trump promised just hours following Nicolás Maduro's capture by U.S. forces.

The provider of employment tech delivered strong third-quarter results.

On November 14, 2025, Onex Canada Asset Management Inc. disclosed a buy of First Advantage (FA 1.93%), increasing its position value by $3,060,597 as of September 30, 2025.

What happenedAccording to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission dated November 14, 2025, Onex Canada Asset Management increased its position in First Advantage by 240,978 shares in the third quarter. The holding was valued at $11.88 million at quarter-end, up from the prior quarter.

What else to knowThe fund’s buy brings First Advantage to 1.5% of its reportable U.S. equity assets, outside the top five positions.

Top holdings after the filing: 

NYSE: AON: $60,539,838 (7.6% of AUM)NYSE: APO: $50,566,434 (6.4% of AUM)NASDAQ: MSFT: $39,914,781 (5.0% of AUM)NASDAQ: NVDA: $34,304,785 (4.3% of AUM)NASDAQ: GOOGL: $33,844,625 (4.3% of AUM)As of November 13, 2025, shares were priced at $13.13, down 27.14% over one year, underperforming the S&P 500 by 41.92 percentage points.

Company overviewMetricValueMarket Capitalization$2.29 billionRevenue (TTM)$1.46 billionNet Income (TTM)($138.66 million)Price (as of market close November 13, 2025)$13.13Company snapshotFirst Advantage offers technology-driven solutions for employment background screening, verifications, compliance, and safety, including criminal background checks, drug screening, identity verification, and post-onboarding monitoring.It serves a global client base comprising large enterprises, mid-sized firms, and small businesses, with a focus on recruiting, human resources, risk, and compliance professionals.The company operates a scalable platform that enables clients to efficiently manage workforce risk and regulatory requirements across multiple industries.First Advantage is a leading provider of human capital screening and compliance solutions, supporting organizations worldwide with technology-enabled background checks and risk mitigation tools.

With a broad suite of services and a scalable platform, the company enables clients to efficiently manage workforce risk and regulatory requirements. Its established market presence and diversified customer base underpin its competitive position in the specialty business services sector.

Foolish takeOnex Canada Asset Management's purchase of First Advantage shares in the third quarter of 2025 could have been prompted by the stock's downward trajectory at the time. Shares eventually hit a 52-week low of $11.95 in November.

Onex Canada's decision to raise its stake from 531,169 in Q2 to 772,147 in Q3 suggests the investment firm has a bullish outlook towards First Advantage. The perspective is warranted given the provider of employment technology's strong Q3 results.

First Advantage delivered Q3 revenue of $409.2 million, an increase over the prior year's $199.1 million thanks to its acquisition of Sterling Check Corp. This contributed to Q3 net income of $2.6 million compared to a net loss of $8.9 million in the prior year.

The company lowered the top end of its 2025 fully year guidance from $1.6 billion to $1.57 billion, which could have contributed to its share price decline. However, the company looks like it's set to deliver solid performance over time, and given its share price drop, now looks like a good time to consider buying the stock.

Glossary13F filing: A quarterly report required by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), disclosing U.S. equity holdings of institutional investment managers.

Assets under management (AUM): The total market value of investments managed on behalf of clients by a fund or firm.

Position value: The total market worth of a specific investment held by a fund at a given time.

Reportable assets: Investments that must be disclosed in regulatory filings, such as those required by the SEC.

Top holdings: The largest investments in a portfolio, typically ranked by market value.

Market presence: The extent of a company's visibility and activity within its industry or sector.

Specialty business services sector: An industry category focused on providing specialized support services to businesses.

Scalable platform: A technology system designed to handle increasing amounts of work or users efficiently.

Human capital screening: The process of evaluating potential or current employees for risk, compliance, and suitability.

Risk mitigation tools: Solutions or processes designed to reduce potential losses or threats to an organization.

Compliance professionals: Individuals responsible for ensuring a company follows laws, regulations, and internal policies.

TTM: The 12-month period ending with the most recent quarterly report.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of VTEX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Zaslav has rejected several offers from Paramount Skydance for the studio.
Getty Images

Inside the Paramount Skydance camp, there’s a running joke about what new “excuse” Warner Bros. Discovery will come up with next to reject PSKY’s latest “sweetened” takeover offer for the media conglomerate.

“This time, I bet they say they don’t like the type of paper we use,” quipped one person on the Paramount team.

There’s also mounting anger at WBD CEO David Zaslav and his board.

It was Zas — as the mercurial mogul is known in media circles — who upended Paramount Skydance’s attempt last September to buy the company for $19 a share by creating a bidding war that is now pushing the sale price into the stratosphere.

Streaming giant Netflix emerged as the winner, at least for now.

But Hollywood producer David Ellison — the CEO of Paramount Skydance who is partnering with RedBird Capital’s Gerry Cardinale and who is financially backed by dad Larry Ellison’s $240 billion fortune — won’t give up the ghost.

More From Charles Gasparino
Thinking of litigation
They’ve launched a hostile bid for the company with ever-sweetened offers that keep getting spurned.

Now, as I was first to report, they’re thinking about litigation — their so-called DEFCON 1 strategy — because they think the process was rigged from the start to give Netflix the upper hand.

They haven’t ruled out increasing their offer, at least as this report goes to press, but the mood internally is that they need to play the long game, try to convince investors their deal is superior to Netflix’s, and maybe even sue Zas & Co. for rigging the bidding process and favoring a less shareholder-friendly combo.

Zas and his people deny the rigging charge, and they’ve provided disclosures explaining the bidding process including multiple meetings with the Ellisons.

But the Paramount Skydance peeps point to the friendship of Zas and Netflix CEO Ted Sarandos hovering over the selection, which IMHO is the least compelling piece of the argument.

The C-suite of the media business was and is a boys club, and what I know about Zas is that he’s an economic animal.

He’s really looking for more money.

More compelling is the Ellisons’ tick-tock of how they keep getting the alleged shaft.

First Zas & Co. wanted $30 a share for the entire company.

After the Ellisons checked that box, they came back with an all-cash offer.

Then Team Zas demanded that Larry Ellison personally guarantee the $78 billion all-cash offer and pay the $2.8 billion breakup fee from the Netflix deal.

The Ellisons say they will, but still believe WBD’s board is likely to tell them to pound sand next week.

How this turns out is anyone’s guess, but if I were to bet, I would lay odds on the following scenario: Zas is already offering an olive branch of sorts, telling media people how much he admires and respects Oracle co-founder Larry and thinks David Ellison is not just an excellent movie producer (“Top Gun: Maverick” is among his credits), but that Zas was impressed with David’s dealmaking skills.

Zaslav also has been saying he’s open to a higher offer, and the words “$34 a share” keep coming out of his mouth and making their way back to the Ellisons and RedBird.

Big egos
I, for one, think the Ellisons and RedBird will go there, but first a few cav­eats.

Lots of big egos are involved: Zaslav, Sarandos, Cardinale, top bankers on both sides, not to mention one of the world’s richest men in Larry Ellison.

So don’t discount DEFCON 1.

Plus, Paramount Skydance truly believes it has a superior offer.

It’s bidding for the entire company, not just studio and streaming that Netflix wants, and there’s little regulatory overlap.

Netflix would have to convince the Trump DOJ Antitrust Division that combining the Nos. 1 and 3 streaming services will be good for consumers.

(Larry Ellison is a longtime Trump supporter.)

The Ellisons also argue the numbers don’t work on the Netflix deal, a $27.75-a-share offer that includes Netflix’s own stock (which has been getting hammered) that goes into coming up with around $80 billion.

WBD shareholders would get screwed even more because its “higher” value is derived from a separate sale of WBD cable properties — a so-called equity stub — for as much as $3 a share.

CNN, TNT and Discovery will be stacked with $15 billion in debt under the arrangement on top of losing subscribers due to cord-cutting, so good luck with that.

“There’s no f–king way they’re paying $34,” is how one person close to the Paramount Skydance team put it.

“They think this bid is simply better.”

And yes, the people at Paramount Skydance are pissed; they believe Zas — a veteran of NBCU and later Discovery Inc. and mentored by the likes of Jack Welch and John Malone in the art of dealmaking — was being too cute by handing over the keys to Sarandos despite PSKY’s superior offer.

Lots of sound and fury still coming out of this deal, now in its fourth month.

But if I were to bet, cooler heads will prevail, the Ellisons sweeten their price and they will make Zas an offer he can’t refuse.

Co-founder Robert Schingler sold 73,782 directly-held shares in the open market for a transaction value of approximately ~$1.4 million on Dec. 26, 2025. The sale represented 5.96% of Mr.

HomeETFs and Funds AnalysisETF Analysis

SummaryBBLU is recently reorganized actively managed blue-chip ETF with a history dating back to July 1997. Returns of its predecessor mutual fund indicate long-term outperformance over S&P 500 Index ETFs.BBLU and SPY have strikingly similar return profiles despite BBLU holding just 36 equities, suggesting its four managers are extremely skilled at identifying the key stocks that drive markets.BBLU features a consistently lower portfolio beta, though its growth and value mix is slightly unfavorable - a reversal from my review from about two years ago.For me, it's not worth swapping into yet, but current BBLU shareholders currently hold a well-thought-out portfolio that is potentially less risky compared to SPY.BBLU earns a solid "hold" rating, with more frequent reviews planned for 2026. zimmytws/iStock via Getty Images

Investment Thesis Today, I will update my "hold" rating from February 25, 2024, on the EA Bridgeway Blue Chip ETF (BBLU). At the time, I found BBLU's portfolio was at least as fundamentally strong

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SPY either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of VZ either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. This post is illustrative and educational and is not a specific offer of products or services or financial advice. Information in this article is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. Expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Sydney TheCMO

January 4, 2026

Bitcoin faced a setback on Saturday morning when its value fell from a multi-week high of approximately $91,000 to below $90,000. This decline followed reports of explosions in Caracas, Venezuela’s capital, which are speculated to be linked to potential U.S. military action. The exact cause of the explosions remains unconfirmed. However, U.S. President Donald Trump has previously issued warnings of possible ground strikes against Venezuela and has deployed a naval task force in the Caribbean.

The Trump administration has been informed of these explosions, according to a report by the BBC, though no official statement has been released. CNN reported power outages in several parts of Caracas following the explosions, and their journalists noted the presence of aircraft sounds over the city. While responsibility for the explosions has not been attributed to the U.S., the news immediately impacted Bitcoin’s price. Known for its volatility during geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin’s value dropped from around $90,500, after reaching $91,000 the previous day, to approximately $89,500 within an hour of the initial reports from BBC and CNN.

Bitcoin’s price movements are often sensitive to global instability and conflict, reflecting wider market uncertainties. As a decentralized asset, Bitcoin has historically reacted to geopolitical events, seeing price fluctuations during periods of international tension. The cryptocurrency remains a prominent fixture in financial markets due to its potential as a hedge against traditional market vulnerabilities.

In recent years, Venezuela has faced significant economic and political challenges, which have occasionally influenced broader financial markets. The country has been the focus of international scrutiny, especially concerning its energy sector and political leadership under President Nicolás Maduro. Tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela have been heightened, with the former often criticizing the Venezuelan government and its policies.

While the current situation in Venezuela unfolds, Bitcoin and other digital assets could experience further volatility. Cryptocurrency traders may remain cautious, keeping an eye on both the geopolitical landscape and market indicators. As events in Venezuela continue to develop, market participants will likely monitor official statements from both U.S. and Venezuelan authorities for clarity.

The cryptocurrency market is subject to rapid changes, and Bitcoin’s future movements will hinge on ongoing developments. As of now, Bitcoin’s price remains below the $90,000 mark, with market observers anticipating possible shifts in response to any new information regarding the situation in Venezuela.

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Sydney TheCMO

Sydney has 20+ years commercial experience and has spent the last 10 years working in the online marketing arena and was the CMO for a large FX brokerage.

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Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin shared on X today that he believes zk-EVMs are going to become the main way Ethereum validates blocks between 2027 and 2030.

“The trilemma has been solved – not on paper, but with live running code, of which one half (data availability sampling) is on mainnet today, and the other half (ZK-EVMs) is production-quality on performance today – safety is what remains,” said Vitalik.

Vitalik compared Ethereum’s situation to peer-to-peer networks that came long before it, like “BitTorrent (2000): huge total bandwidth, highly decentralized, no consensus.”

Ethereum starts large gas limit increases in 2026 through BALs and ePBS
Vitalik then pointed to Bitcoin in 2009, saying:-

“Bitcoin (2009): highly decentralized, consensus, but low bandwidth because it’s not “distributed” in the sense of work being split up, it’s replicated. Now, Ethereum with PeerDAS (2025) and ZK-EVMs (expect small portions of the network using it in 2026), we get: decentralized, consensus and high bandwidth. But now it’s time to talk about what this combination means for Ethereum.”

Vitalik said these upgrades are already running code, not theory. Data availability sampling is active on mainnet today. zk-EVMs already hit production performance levels. Safety checks are the final step, and Vitalik traced that work back ten years, starting with his first data availability research commit and later zk-EVM experiments that began around 2020.

The rollout plan is staged. In 2026, Ethereum expects large gas limit increases that do not depend on zk-EVMs, driven by BALs and ePBS. That same year should also bring the first chances to run a zk-EVM node on parts of the network, according to Vitalik.

From 2027 through 2030, Ethereum plans even larger gas limit jumps as zk-EVMs become the main block validation method. “ZKEVM becomes the primary way to validate blocks on the network,” Vitalik wrote.

Another piece is distributed block building. Vitalik said the long-term goal is a setup where a full block is never built in one place. He said this is not urgent, but worth building toward. In Vitalik’s words:-

“Even before that point, we want the meaningful authority in block building to be as distributed as possible. This can be done either in-protocol (eg. maybe we figure out how to expand FOCIL to make it a primary channel for txs), or out-of-protocol with distributed builder marketplaces. This reduces risk of centralized interference with real-time transaction inclusion.”

Vitalik said that it also improves geographic fairness. The Ethereum Foundation has it stated on its website that higher gas limits on Ethereum are made safe by zk-EVMs increase capacity, cut congestion, and stabilize fees.

The Foundation said:- “Bringing zkEVMs to L1 is a multi-faceted effort. Our work is organized into three core workstreams, with parallel progress on client implementations.”

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Journalist

Posted: January 4, 2026

Macro volatility in 2025 reignited the debate over “safe havens.” 

But looking at year-end closes, the verdict seems clear: Gold (XAU) dominated the narrative, surging nearly 65% to a record $4,500, reminding investors why it has long been the “go-to” asset during turbulent times.

That said, this wasn’t just a lucky streak. The U.S. economy faced multiple shocks, from inflation to the federal shutdown, putting Bitcoin’s [BTC] safe-haven story under pressure, ultimately finishing the year down 6.30%.

Source: TradingView (GOLD/USD)

In essence, capital favored safety over risk as macro pressures built up.

However, 2025 closed with a noticeable shift. November inflation, for instance, dropped to 2.7%, marking a 0.3% MoM decline, while recent readings like core CPI and PCE have dipped below the Fed’s 2% target.

On paper, this sets the stage for capital to rotate back into Bitcoin. Yet, looking at Q4 performance versus tokenized gold [XAUT], the preference for XAUT remains evident. XAUT rallied 13% in Q4, while BTC slid 24%.

Naturally, the question arises: Is this divergence no longer about volatility, but about seeking safe returns? If so, could the growing positioning in XAUT be an early signal of a repeat divergence heading into 2026?

Investors eye XAUT amid shifting capital flows
Looks like China is single-handedly pushing markets toward metals. 

First, it was silver. China’s export ban sparked a parabolic 147% rally in 2025, placing silver at the top of the asset performance leaderboard. Now, with China turning its attention to gold mining, the setup feels familiar.

For context, China’s largest gold producer, Zijin Mining, is ramping up overseas acquisitions. Following gold’s explosive 2025 run, this move doesn’t look random. Instead, it reflects expectations of sustained demand.

Source: TradingView (XAUT/USDT)

In this context, XAUT’s strong performance isn’t a coincidence.

After closing 2025 with a 65% rally, investors clearly aren’t done. Lookonchain flagged a whale who lost $18.8 million trading Ethereum [ETH], rotating out of ETH into gold and reinforcing the market thesis.

Meanwhile, six wallets scooped up 3,102 XAUT, spending $13.7 million. Taken together, these moves look like early positioning, signaling that investors are strategically shifting capital ahead of macro developments.

For Bitcoin? 2026 may repeat the 2025 divergence.

Final Thoughts

XAUT outperforms as investors rotate toward safety, with whales and linked wallets positioning ahead of macro shifts.
Bitcoin faces pressure as China’s metals push and early XAUT accumulation signal a potential repeat of 2025-style divergence.

Ritika Gupta is a Financial Journalist and Geopolitical Analyst at AMBCrypto, specializing in the critical intersection of world politics, economic policy, and the cryptocurrency markets. Her analysis is informed by her distinguished background, which includes professional experience at major news network.
She holds a Bachelor's degree in Political Science and Psychology from Gargi College, University of Delhi. This academic training provides her with a sophisticated framework for dissecting complex issues such as international regulations, government fiscal policies, and the geopolitical forces that directly influence asset valuations.
At AMBCrypto, Ritika applies this expert lens to synthesize macroeconomic data and political developments, offering readers a deeper context for market movements. She excels at explaining not just what is happening in the market, but why it is happening. Her work is dedicated to providing strategic insights that empower readers to understand the complex relationship between global events and their digital assets.

TLDR:

Daily LINK outflows from Binance’s top 10 transactions tripled from 1,500 to 4,500 tokens recently
Whale accumulation began when LINK traded between $12-$13 following approximately 50% price correction
Historical data shows similar whale behavior typically precedes bottom formation and price recovery
Rising average of top ten outflows suggests institutional investors are positioning for potential upward trend

Large-scale investors have increased their activity around Chainlink’s LINK token following a sharp price correction. Data from Binance reveals notable outflows from the exchange’s top transactions over recent days. 

The token experienced approximately 50% decline before whale movements intensified in the $12 to $13 range. This pattern typically emerges after major corrections when institutional players seek favorable entry points.

Whale Outflows Accelerate During Price Compression
The ten largest transactions on Binance have shown a marked shift in LINK token movement. Daily outflows jumped from a monthly average of 1,500 LINK to peaks reaching 4,500 LINK. 

These transfers occurred while the token traded within a compressed range after its steep decline.

🗞️ Whales step In as LINK price compresses

"Over the past few days, whale activity on Binance around the LINK token from the Chainlink protocol has increased significantly. We can observe that outflows from the 10 largest transactions on Binance have risen sharply."

Full… pic.twitter.com/sx8tFPqVvz

— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) January 3, 2026

Exchange data indicates the timing of these withdrawals coincides with price stabilization. Tokens leaving major exchanges often signal accumulation rather than distribution. 

This behavior suggests sophisticated investors are removing assets from trading platforms for longer-term positioning.

The scale of capital involved means these actors must carefully optimize their entries. Their decisions carry weight due to position sizes that can influence market dynamics. 

Tracking such movements provides insight into potential trend shifts before broader market participants react.

Historical Patterns Point to Potential Bottom Formation
Similar whale activity has appeared consistently after severe corrective phases in previous cycles. Once prices compress substantially, larger holders typically step in to build positions. 

This recurring pattern has historically preceded periods of price stabilization and eventual recovery.

The rising average of top ten outflows reinforces the accumulation thesis. When this metric trends upward following major drawdowns, it often marks transitional phases. Market structure begins shifting from distribution to accumulation during these periods.

Should this accumulation pattern persist, LINK could establish a durable price floor. The token’s ability to maintain current levels while whale activity continues would strengthen the base formation. 

A confirmed bottom would create conditions for renewed upward momentum as selling pressure diminishes and buying interest builds among institutional participants.

The current environment mirrors conditions that preceded previous recoveries across crypto markets. Price compression creates opportunities for patient capital deployment. 

Whether this whale activity translates to sustained price appreciation depends on broader market conditions and continued accumulation trends.

Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

BlackRock pushed into digital assets massively in 2025, with on-chain data revealing just how aggressive the leading asset manager became in accumulating Bitcoin and Ethereum. 

Blockchain tracking data shows that the world’s largest asset manager expanded its cryptocurrency holdings by more than $23 billion in 2025, and this is one of the biggest institutional accumulation phases seen in the year. The figures highlight a sustained commitment to Bitcoin and Ethereum, even as price action turned bearish towards the end of the year.

BlackRock’s Crypto Portfolio Expansion Through 2025
Crypto was at the forefront of BlackRock’s investment strategy in 2025. According to data from on-chain analytics platform Arkham Intelligence, BlackRock’s on-chain cryptocurrency holdings at the start of 2025 were $54.83 billion. By January 1, 2026, that figure had risen to about $78.36 billion, representing a net increase of roughly $23.52 billion over the course of the year. 

These figures mean that by the end of 2025, BlackRock’s crypto portfolio had grown by about 43% compared to the start of the year. Unsurprisingly, the accumulation was concentrated almost entirely in Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two biggest assets leading institutional exposure to the crypto industry.

Bitcoin was the dominant holding by value. BlackRock’s BTC stash grew from around 552,550 BTC worth about $51.16 billion in January 2025 to about 770,290 BTC valued at $68.05 billion in January 2026. This translates to an increase of approximately 217,740 BTC, adding about $16.88 billion to the firm’s portfolio based on year-end valuations. 

Even with Bitcoin’s price down about 5% from January 2025, the increase in BTC units held grew by 39%, which, in turn, pushed the total value higher.

BTCUSD now trading at $89,777. Chart: TradingView
Ethereum, although smaller in absolute terms, saw even faster relative growth. Holdings expanded from 1.07 million ETH valued at $3.59 billion in January 2025 to about 3.47 million ETH worth $10.31 billion in January 2026. That represents an increase of nearly 2.4 million ETH, contributing around $6.71 billion to BlackRock’s crypto holdings in 2025.

These numbers mean that BlackRock’s ETH holdings grew by more than 224% over the year, far outpacing Bitcoin’s 39% increase.

ETFs And Institutional Demand Motivated $23 Billion Accumulation
The bulk of BlackRock’s crypto buying in 2025 was due to persistent inflows into its spot exchange-traded products. Investor demand for regulated exposure to Bitcoin and Ethereum was strong for much of the year, particularly during rallies that pushed both assets toward fresh all-time highs.

At the same time, corrective phases in the crypto market were accompanied by notable ETF outflows. This trend supports the view that Bitcoin and Ethereum price action is becoming increasingly linked to ETF activity, and BlackRock is the dominant issuer within those flows.

BlackRock has not yet established a presence in the XRP market. The asset manager does not currently offer a Spot XRP ETF, and spokespersons have previously stated that the company has no immediate plans to launch one.

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView

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Scott Matherson is a leading crypto writer at Bitcoinist, who possesses a sharp analytical mind and a deep understanding of the digital currency landscape. Scott has earned a reputation for delivering thought-provoking and well-researched articles that resonate with both newcomers and seasoned crypto enthusiasts.
Outside of his writing, Scott is passionate about promoting crypto literacy and often works to educate the public on the potential of blockchain.

TLDR:

Sustained Bitcoin ETF outflows reflect institutional risk rebalancing rather than short-term market noise

IBIT AUM has declined by 32 percent from peak levels, confirming real spot Bitcoin selling pressure

Broader crypto fund outflows show capital exiting the asset class amid heightened macro uncertainty

Prolonged IBIT consolidation suggests volatility expansion is more likely than near-term trend stability

Bitcoin ETF outflows are drawing renewed attention as institutional positioning shifts. Persistent redemptions from IBIT and broader crypto funds suggest tightening liquidity conditions. 

Analysts have warned that this could increase the probability of heightened Bitcoin price volatility ahead.

Bitcoin ETF Outflows Reveal Institutional Risk Rebalancing
Bitcoin ETF outflows have accelerated, led by BlackRock’s IBIT recording $244 million in net redemptions last week. 

Notably, eight of the past ten weeks have posted outflows, reflecting consistency rather than episodic selling behavior. 

This pattern indicates institutional risk adjustment instead of reactive market noise.IBIT’s assets under management peaked near $100 billion before falling to approximately $67.6 billion. 

The $32 billion reduction represents a 32 percent drawdown from highs. Redemptions at this scale require physical Bitcoin sales, translating directly into reduced spot demand.

Crypto Tice framed these flows as genuine selling pressure. Through a post on X, the analyst emphasized that sustained ETF outflows historically precede volatility, not the end of Bitcoin market cycles. 

🚨 ETF FLOW WARNING:

Bitcoin ETFs just saw historic outflows.$IBIT: -$244M last week
8 outflow weeks in the last 10

AUM down -$32B (-32%) from the peak
Overall crypto funds: -$446M in one week.

This is real selling pressure, not noise.

Flows like this usually precede… pic.twitter.com/jjQIQGwCn2

— Crypto Tice (@CryptoTice_) January 3, 2026

This framing aligns with previous transition phases observed during institutional participation periods. Beyond IBIT, overall crypto investment products recorded $446 million in weekly outflows. 

This confirms that capital withdrawal is not isolated to one issuer. Broad-based fund outflows often reflect macro caution, portfolio rebalancing, or reduced short-term conviction across risk assets.

IBIT Performance Divergence and Compression Signal Volatility
Despite recent Bitcoin ETF outflows, IBIT has still attracted $24.8 billion in net inflows year-to-date. This confirms that long-term institutional adoption has not reversed. 

Large allocators continue using IBIT as a primary vehicle for Bitcoin exposure within regulated markets. 

The combination of positive annual inflows and recent weekly outflows marks a transition phase. 

Early entrants reassess exposure while price consolidates. During such periods, even modest reallocations can drive notable spot market reactions due to IBIT’s scale.

From a technical perspective, IBIT has consolidated for seven consecutive weeks around the $50–51 range. This extended compression follows a sharp drawdown and reflects absorption rather than uncontrolled selling. 

Weak hands tend to exit during these phases. A substantially anchored volume profile shelf sits beneath current price levels, providing structural support. 

Above, the 50-week moving average near $57.65 represents the primary regime threshold. A decisive reclaim attracts momentum-driven flows back into the ETF.

Bitcoin ETF outflows, combined with price compression and defined technical levels, indicate an approaching expansion of volatility. 

Institutional caution remains evident, while structural support suggests the market is positioning for movement rather than prolonged stability.

Throughout 2025, Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki warned that a historic market crash was unfolding, while highlighting bitcoin's rising role as an alternative asset amid debt, debasement, and weakening trust in fiat systems.

Americans reportedly lost more than $333 million in 2025 to scams involving cryptocurrency kiosks, commonly known as Bitcoin ATMs, highlighting a rapidly escalating fraud trend that regulators now consider a systemic financial risk. According to FBI data, more than 12,000 complaints tied to crypto kiosks were recorded between January and November 2025 alone, underscoring the growing scale of Bitcoin ATM scams across the United States.

Data from the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) further reinforces the severity of the issue, showing that reports of Bitcoin ATM-related fraud nearly doubled compared to the previous year. With roughly 31,000 crypto kiosks nationwide—many placed in gas stations, convenience stores, and other high-traffic locations—authorities are increasingly concerned that their accessibility is being exploited by scammers rather than serving legitimate consumer demand.

Bitcoin ATMs are particularly attractive to fraudsters because they allow a seamless conversion of cash into cryptocurrency, which is nearly impossible to recover once transferred. In many cases, scammers contact victims by phone, impersonating government agencies, tech support services, or financial institutions. Victims are then instructed to visit a nearby crypto kiosk, deposit cash, and send the resulting Bitcoin to a wallet controlled by the scammer. Once completed, the transaction bypasses traditional banking safeguards such as chargebacks or fraud reversals.

The financial impact of these scams disproportionately affects older Americans. FBI reports indicate that individuals over the age of 60 account for a significant share of the losses, often falling victim to urgent and emotionally manipulative scam scripts. Recognizing this trend, agencies like the Department of Financial Protection and Innovation (DFPI) have intensified public awareness efforts, recently releasing a “Protect Yourself” framework emphasizing that no legitimate organization will ever request cash deposits via a crypto ATM.

However, policymakers are increasingly concluding that education alone is insufficient. Inspired by measures in countries such as Australia, U.S. regulators are now exploring stricter controls, including transaction limits and tighter oversight of Bitcoin ATM operators. Industry analysts believe these regulatory guardrails could play a crucial role in curbing the rapid rise of cryptocurrency kiosk fraud and protecting vulnerable consumers.

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