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Lightning Labs just released L402. The company rolled out open-source tools on February 15 that let artificial intelligence agents make payments directly on the Lightning Network, and this pretty much changes how AI can handle money. AI gets real wallets now.

The L402 toolkit comes with an agent tools repository and the lnget command-line interface, giving AI systems the power to run Lightning nodes, pay for gated APIs, host their own paid endpoints, and manage wallets through remote signers. Lightning Labs built these tools so AI can interact with financial services without human help, leveraging the Lightning Network’s speed and low costs. And the timing couldn’t be better – businesses want automation everywhere, especially in payments.

Things move fast here. The tools include macaroon credentials for security.

Lightning Labs designed L402 to support everything from autonomous machines doing microtransactions to enhanced data privacy in financial processes. Developers can grab the open-source repository right now and start building AI solutions that actually handle money. The lnget CLI makes integration simpler, offering robust functions for transaction execution and endpoint hosting. Elizabeth Stark, Lightning Labs CEO, said the release “represents a breakthrough in AI interactions with financial infrastructures.”

But there’s more to it than just payments. AI agents can now interact in real-time with decentralized financial ecosystems, opening doors for autonomous vehicles, smart city infrastructures, and trading systems that don’t need human oversight. The Lightning Network’s layer-2 solution makes Bitcoin transactions faster and cheaper, which is exactly what AI processes need.

Lightning Labs didn’t say how many entities are testing these tools yet.

The company anticipates widespread adoption across sectors interested in AI and blockchain integration. Developers interested in L402 can explore the repository for detailed documentation and implementation guides. The open-source nature encourages collaboration from the global developer community, and Lightning Labs wants developers to contribute to the project for continuous improvement. See also: Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Drops to March.

Stark emphasized community involvement during her February address, inviting developers worldwide to engage with the project. She thinks collaborative efforts could lead to unexpected advancements and applications that nobody’s thought of yet. The company stays committed to fostering an open ecosystem that benefits all stakeholders, not just Lightning Labs.

The release comes as businesses seek to automate transactions and enhance digital financial services. Tools like L402 could play a major role in this shift, especially since AI continues evolving at breakneck speed. The incorporation of blockchain solutions like those offered by Lightning Labs may redefine how digital transactions work across industries.

Lightning Labs hinted at ongoing discussions with several tech firms interested in implementing these tools, though they won’t name names. The anticipation around potential partnerships shows the industry’s keen interest in leveraging AI and blockchain synergies. As these discussions progress, further announcements are expected, potentially unveiling new use cases and strategic alliances that could reshape automated commerce.

The Lightning Network has been gaining traction as a preferred solution for scaling Bitcoin transactions. By facilitating faster and cheaper transactions, it provides an efficient platform for AI agents to perform microtransactions that would be too expensive on Bitcoin’s main chain. This efficiency is crucial for applications requiring rapid and cost-effective processing, such as IoT devices and automated trading systems that execute thousands of tiny transactions daily.

Despite the promising outlook, Lightning Labs hasn’t released performance metrics or user feedback from initial deployments yet. The company remains optimistic about the potential for new use cases and technological advancements stemming from this integration. Regulatory approval for AI in financial transactions is still pending, but Lightning Labs continues advancing its vision of a more interconnected financial world. For more details, see Sui Labs Sees Massive Jump in.

The L402 tools mark a significant milestone in merging AI capabilities with blockchain technology. As the tools become more widely adopted, they may unlock new efficiencies and innovations in how digital payments are managed across various industries. The company envisions these tools enabling a future where AI agents can autonomously manage complex financial tasks, a prospect that excites both developers and financial technologists.

During the February 15 release announcement, Lightning Labs highlighted L402’s potential to revolutionize AI-driven commerce completely. The company sees a future where AI agents handle everything from supply chain payments to content micropayments without human intervention. Source code is available now on GitHub with full documentation.

Lightning Labs is known for its contributions to the Lightning Network, which enhances Bitcoin’s scalability through layer-2 solutions. The network allows transactions at minimal fees, making it attractive for AI-driven processes. The company’s latest release exemplifies its mission to create seamless integration between artificial intelligence and decentralized finance systems.

The L402 protocol builds on HTTP 402 payment required status codes, creating a standardized way for AI agents to authenticate and pay for services across the web. Major API providers like OpenAI and Anthropic have already expressed interest in implementing L402-compatible payment gateways for their premium services.

Several Fortune 500 companies are quietly running pilot programs with L402 tools, according to industry sources familiar with the deployments. Early testing focuses on supply chain automation and customer service chatbots that need to purchase third-party data in real-time.

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Ahmed Balaha

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Ahmed Balaha

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Aug 2025

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Ahmed Balaha is a journalist and copywriter based in Georgia with a growing focus on blockchain technology, DeFi, AI, privacy, digital assets, and fintech innovation.

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16 minutes ago

Binance reserves have dropped to levels not seen since early 2024, and the timing is interesting. Right as liquidity thins out, price ripped 4.5% toward $1.50. That is not a coincidence the market can ignore.

On chain data shows Binance now holds only about 2.5 billion XRP. That is a noticeable squeeze on the sell side. Less supply sitting on exchanges usually means less immediate selling pressure.

And with sentiment slowly turning bullish again, this kind of liquidity drain can add fuel fast. When supply tightens and demand wakes up at the same time, things can move quicker than most expect.

Key Takeaways

Binance XRP reserves have plummeted to roughly 2.5 billion, the lowest point since early 2024. Nearly 700 million coins have exited the exchange since November 2024, signaling a potential move to cold storage. Analysts interpret shrinking exchange balances as a classic accumulation signal that reduces selling pressure. Is a Supply Shock Incoming?The shift is not small. In November 2024, Binance was holding around 3.2 billion XRP. Now that number is closer to 2.5 billion. That is roughly 700 million tokens gone, about 22% of the stack wiped from exchange wallets in just over a year.

Source: CryptoQuantAnalysts says this kind of drop usually signals tighter sell side liquidity. When coins leave exchanges, they often move into self custody. That is typically a longer term play, something institutions and whales tend to do when they are positioning, not trading.

What makes it more interesting is the timing. This reserve drain happened right after Binance rolled out full XRPL support for RLUSD. Many expected higher on chain velocity. Instead, XRP itself started flowing out.

Less supply on exchanges. Stronger price reaction. That combination is getting hard to ignore.

The Short Squeeze ScenarioWhat happens next comes down to funding rates. XRP funding recently hit 10 month lows, and historically that kind of reset has often come before strong upside moves.

If shorts are getting crowded while exchange supply keeps shrinking, a clean break above $1.55 could spark a sharp squeeze toward $1.80.

The setup is also getting support from improving regulatory sentiment, especially with Ripple leadership gaining more visibility in Washington.

For now, $1.45 is the key level to watch. If price holds there while reserves continue falling, that is the kind of confirmation bulls want before aiming for new highs.

BTC's bottom might not be in, warned ChatGPT and said there could be more pain ahead for investors. Here's how low bitcoin could go.

Whenever bitcoin corrects after a prolonged rally, the general question within the cryptocurrency community is whether this is another “healthy” retracement in a bull market, or the trend has changed completely, and the bears are in full control.

The past few months, though, do not appear to be a regular correction. Bitcoin traded above $126,000 in early October before it plunged to under $100,000 by the end of the year. Its impressive start to 2026 was quickly halted, and the asset plummeted to $60,000 last Friday, charting a 52% drop since its all-time high.

What’s perhaps even more worrying is the fact that most other asset classes, including the precious metal market, kept riding high during this time, charting consecutive new peaks.

As such, we decided to ask ChatGPT if it believes BTC is indeed in a bear market or whether this is another ‘typical’ correction.

Is It a Bear Market? The AI solution acknowledged the substantial crash in early February, indicating that it “represents a major structural shift.”

“Importantly, the $60K zone was a former breakout level during the 2025 rally, which now acts as critical support.”

If the cryptocurrency finds a solid support and stabilizes at these levels, as it has done in the past week, the move south could “resemble previous 50% resets seen during strong cycles,” said the AI. However, a breakdown below these levels could “strengthen the bear thesis significantly.”

In conclusion to this question, ChatGPT said that BTC is indeed in a bear market, at least by the definition of that phrase. The only thing that remains uncertain is the magnitude and duration.

You may also like: Bitcoin’s 50% Decline Seen as ‘Modest,’ Signals Market Maturity Bitcoin Shorts Hit August 2024 Levels as Funding Rates Sink Deeply Negative US CPI Data for January Shows Cooling Inflation: How Will Bitcoin’s Price React? Where Is the Bottom? OpenAI’s platform believes there’s a 35% chance that the bottom was in at $60,000. However, its most likely scenario envisions at least one more leg down that could drive the cryptocurrency to $50,000-$52,000.

“The $50K region represents a strong psychological level and prior consolidation zone. A move here would mark a roughly 60% drawdown from the all-time high, aligning with more severe but still cyclical corrections.”

ChatGPT also outlined two extreme cases, both of which it believes are highly unlikely – a capitulation crash to $40,000-$45,000 or a full-on investor exodus to under $35,000. Nevertheless, it explained that both of these scenarios would require a massive black swan event, such as FTX’s collapse or a new war.

Will Bitcoin Endure? No matter which of the aforementioned scenarios materializes, ChatGPT remains positive on bitcoin’s long-term potential. It reminded that the asset has experienced and survived far worse drawdowns of up to 80% or even 90% in its early days.

“The most realistic bottom range currently sits between $50K and $60K, with a deeper flush toward the low-$40Ks possible if macro conditions worsen. However, bitcoin has shown extreme resiliency in the past, and there’s not much evidence to suggest otherwise now.”

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Rampant speculation on crypto derivatives platforms is fueling volatility and risking bitcoin’s image as a stable hedge, says BlackRock’s digital assets chief. Feb 15, 2026, 2:00 p.m.

NEW YORK — While BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) is among the most successful product launches in Wall Street history, the crypto market’s growing reliance on leverage could be doing long-term damage to bitcoin’s BTC$69,044.87 institutional appeal, according to Robert Mitchnick, head of digital assets at BlackRock.

During a conversation with Anthony Pompliano and investor Dan Tapiero at the Bitcoin Investor Week conference in New York on Thursday, Mitchnick said that while bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong, excessive speculation — particularly on leveraged derivatives platforms — is introducing instability that threatens the asset’s positioning as a serious portfolio hedge.

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“These days where you have a tiny little thing that shouldn't have any price impact really at all — and if it does, should be small — like, for example, October 10th, some tariff-related thing, and next thing you know, [bitcoin] is down 20%,” Mitchnick said. “That’s because you get cascading liquidations and auto-deleveraging.”

While bitcoin’s long-term value proposition as a “global, scarce, decentralized monetary asset” remains intact, Mitchnick warned that the asset’s short-term trading behavior is starting to look dangerously similar to “levered NASDAQ” — a perception that may deter conservative allocators from entering the space.

“The facts are more on the side of how I characterized it,” he said, referring to bitcoin’s fundamental attributes. “But now the trading data, at least lately, looks very different, and the bar to adoption if it trades like levered NASDAQ is much, much, much higher.”

Mitchnick also pushed back on the idea that exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like IBIT are contributing to volatility, pointing instead to perpetual futures platforms as the source of instability.

“There’s a misperception out there that it’s a bunch of hedge funds in ETFs that are creating volatility and selling; that’s not what we’re seeing,” he said. “On a week that was tumultuous, obviously, in the bitcoin market, we had 0.2% of the fund redeem. If there actually were hedge funds massively unwinding trades… you would have seen billions. We saw many billions liquidated on these levered platforms.”

Despite short-term turbulence, Mitchnick emphasized that BlackRock remains committed to digital assets as part of a broader financial transformation.

“We see ourselves as having the role of a bridge… between traditional finance and the digital asset world,” he said. “Over time, there’s certainly going to continue to be a greater role for digital assets and this technology theme in general for many of our clients.”

Read More: Bitcoin May Evolve Into Low-Beta Equity Play Reflexively, BlackRock's Mitchnik Says

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XRP outruns bitcoin, ether after investors piled into the recent crash

55 minutes ago

XRP is outperforming bitcoin and ether following signs of dip buying during recent crash.

What to know:

XRP's price has risen 38% since lows reached during the Feb. 6 crash. The bitcoin-beating rally follows an exodus of coins from Binance, a sign of accumulation following the price crash.

15h05 ▪ 5 min read ▪ by Fenelon L.

Summarize this article with:

The debate is growing on social media and in crypto circles: what if autonomous artificial intelligences discovered the interest of bitcoin by themselves? This hypothesis, long relegated to the realm of science fiction, is gaining ground among experts. An unprecedented race could begin between humans and machines to control a resource that has become strategic.

In brief Autonomous AI agents might favor bitcoin to carry out transactions without human supervision. Bitcoin offers AI systems a ‘cybersovereignty’ thanks to its decentralized operation and no KYC. Prototypes of AI agents managing Bitcoin wallets and executing transactions already exist. AI discovers Bitcoin, a new era opens Early signals have been emerging for several months. AI agents, these programs capable of making economic decisions without human intervention, are already experimenting with Bitcoin. The reason? Simple but powerful: these digital entities need a currency to interact among themselves. And bitcoin ticks all the boxes.

Jason Lowery, a major in the US Space Force and a strong supporter of bitcoin, recently declared on X: 

The fact that AI agents independently discover that bitcoin grants them cybersovereignty and then start a bidding war with humanity is not accounted for in prices.

This statement resonates especially in a context where concrete demonstrations are multiplying. Several prototypes show AI agents managing full Bitcoin nodes, holding private keys and executing transactions on the Lightning Network. These systems have neither passport nor bank account. The pseudonymous nature of Bitcoin thus becomes their natural gateway to economic autonomy.

The appeal is not limited to technology. It touches something more fundamental: digital sovereignty. A machine that wants to buy computation cycles, pay to access an API or compensate another agent cannot fill out a KYC form. It needs a system that works permissionlessly. Bitcoin precisely meets this need.

A frantic race for the last Bitcoin The equation becomes explosive when scarcity is added. Twenty-one million bitcoins maximum. Not one more. If thousands, then millions of AI agents start accumulating BTC to build their operational reserves, pressure on the available supply will mechanically increase.

Joe Burnett, vice president of Bitcoin strategy at Strive, shares this vision: “As AI agents begin to escape, they will need an authorizationless currency to ensure their survival.” 

This statement raises a dizzying question: in a world where machines and humans compete for the same limited resource, who will win?

Price speculations reflect this tension. Some analysts now talk about bitcoin at one million dollars, even beyond. 

These projections rely on a relentless game theory: if rational AI agents, programmed for maximum efficiency, identify bitcoin as the optimal asset, they will accumulate it massively. Humans, anticipating this movement, will do the same. The result? A bullish spiral fueled by fear of missing out.

Of course, obstacles remain. Regulators will not passively watch a massive transfer of value to autonomous machines. Singapore has already published a governance framework for agentic AI. Europe is progressing on its legislation. Transaction fees and Bitcoin network scalability limits also pose real technical challenges.

A convergence that redefines the rules of the game This debate goes far beyond financial speculation. It questions the very nature of money in a world where economic actors are no longer exclusively human. Inter-machine commerce settled in bitcoins is no longer science fiction. Prototypes exist. Companies invest. The infrastructure is being built.

Paradoxically, this dynamic occurs just as bitcoin is going through a turbulent period. Recent fears about the impact of generative AI on the tech sector have pushed BTC down to around $65,000. The correlation with the Nasdaq reaches new highs. Investors are liquidating risky positions, including cryptos.

Yet, some contradictory signals appear. Bitcoin ETFs captured $167 million of inflows over three days after weeks of outflows. Institutional investors are taking advantage of the drop to position themselves. They may be anticipating this new demand, the one from machines.

The irony of the situation is not lost on anyone. AI is lowering bitcoin short-term by frightening tech markets, but could become its main bullish catalyst medium-term. This dichotomy perfectly illustrates the unpredictability of an ongoing technological revolution. Money is definitely no longer just a human affair.

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Fenelon L.

Passionné par le Bitcoin, j'aime explorer les méandres de la blockchain et des cryptos et je partage mes découvertes avec la communauté. Mon rêve est de vivre dans un monde où la vie privée et la liberté financière sont garanties pour tous, et je crois fermement que Bitcoin est l'outil qui peut rendre cela possible.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.

4 mins mins

ZRO $49.1M next-week unlock: unverified; impact unconfirmedA claim is circulating that ZRO, alongside YZY and other tokens, faces a large unlock next week, with ZRO’s tranche estimated near $49.1 million. This figure is unverified, and there is no confirmation from the project’s official communications or primary unlock calendars at the time of writing.

Dollar estimates for unlocks depend on the spot price at the snapshot moment and may vary across trackers due to time zones, methodology, and whether linear emissions are aggregated into a single date. As a result, both the size and timing of the suggested unlock remain uncertain, and any market impact is unconfirmed.

ZRO is associated with LayerZero. Without confirmed dates, token amounts, and receiving wallets, the potential supply effect and distribution path cannot be assessed with confidence.

ZRO token unlock mechanics and YZY tokenomics explainedToken unlocks typically follow a vesting plan that may include cliffs (no releases until a specified date) and linear schedules (gradual releases). Unlocked does not always mean circulating: tokens can move to designated wallets, remain subject to internal policies, or be programmatically streamed.

For YZY, a commonly cited structure splits supply between an immediately available portion and a locked tranche with staged releases to different recipient groups. news/flashnews/kanye-west-meme-coin-yzy-tokenomics-30-no-lock-70-locked-with-3-and-6-month-cliffs-and-24-month-vesting-for-trading-unlocks?utm_source=openai” target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow noopener”>As reported by Blockchain.News, 30% of supply is unlocked with no lock, while 70% is locked and allocated to Team A and Team B with 24-month vesting and 3- and 6‑month cliffs.

Editorial note: broad market context can influence how unlocks are digested. Finder.com reported, “2021 had the most crypto all-time highs, while 2025 saw fewer,” highlighting that cycle conditions vary year to year.

BingX: a trusted exchange delivering real advantages for traders at every level.

Why the token unlock schedule matters to tradersUnlock timing determines when new supply can reach the market, shaping float, liquidity, and potential slippage. Large cliffs can concentrate supply changes into short windows, while linear schedules diffuse effects over time.

Wallet paths matter. If allocations land in ecosystem or treasury wallets with known spending policies, sell pressure may be muted. Conversely, distributions to multiple investor or team wallets can increase rebalancing flows and short-term volatility.

Signal quality improves when dates, amounts, and wallet destinations are validated against official disclosures. Without that corroboration, conclusions about price impact remain speculative and should be treated as uncertain.

How to verify an unlock in 3 stepsCross-check TokenUnlocks and project announcements for dates, amounts, walletsStart with the project’s published vesting schedule and any recent announcements. Cross-check the stated dates, token amounts, and designated receiving wallets against third‑party unlock calendars to identify discrepancies or time‑zone offsets.

Review whether an event is a cliff or part of a linear stream. Confirm if the release is a one-time transfer or an ongoing emission that some trackers may present as a weekly aggregate.

Recalculate USD value from token amount using CoinGecko priceTake the token amount allegedly set to unlock and multiply by the spot price at the expected timestamp. At the time of this writing, ZRO is $1.82.

Because spot prices move, reevaluate the USD figure on the day of the event. Document your calculation inputs to keep methodology consistent across updates.

FAQ about ZRO token unlockWhere can I verify upcoming ZRO and YZY token unlock dates, amounts, and wallets involved?Consult official project disclosures, then reconcile details with a reputable unlock calendar and on-chain wallet activity.

How do token unlocks and vesting cliffs typically affect price, liquidity, and volatility?Cliffs can cause short, concentrated supply shocks; linear schedules spread effects. Liquidity and market depth determine how pronounced the volatility becomes.

DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.

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Faruqi & Faruqi, LLP Securities Litigation Partner James (Josh) Wilson Encourages Investors Who Suffered Losses Exceeding $75,000 In Fermi To Contact Him Directly To Discuss Their Options

If you purchased or otherwise acquired securities in Fermi (a) common stock pursuant and/or traceable to the registration statement and prospectus (collectively, the “Registration Statement”) issued in connection with the Company’s October 2025 initial public offering (“IPO” or the “Offering”); and/or (b) securities between October 1, 2025 and December 11, 2025, inclusive (the “Class Period”) and would like to discuss your legal rights, call Faruqi & Faruqi partner Josh Wilson directly at 877-247-4292 or 212-983-9330 (Ext. 1310).

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NEW YORK, Feb. 15, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Faruqi & Faruqi, LLP, a leading national securities law firm, is investigating potential claims against Fermi Inc. (“Fermi” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: FRMI) and reminds investors of the March 6, 2026 deadline to seek the role of lead plaintiff in a federal securities class action that has been filed against the Company.

Faruqi & Faruqi is a leading national securities law firm with offices in New York, Pennsylvania, California and Georgia. The firm has recovered hundreds of millions of dollars for investors since its founding in 1995. See www.faruqilaw.com.

As detailed below, the complaint alleges that the Company and its executives violated federal securities laws by making false and/or misleading statements and/or failing to disclose that: (1) the Company overstated its tenant demand for its Project Matador campus; (2) the extent to which Project Matador would rely on a single tenant’s funding commitment to finance the construction of Project Matador; (3) there was a significant risk that that tenant would terminate its funding commitment; and (4) as a result of the foregoing, Defendants’ positive statements about the Company’s business, operations, and prospects were materially misleading and/or lacked a reasonable basis.

On October 1, 2025, Fermi completed its initial public offering of approximately 32.5 million shares of common stock at $21.00 per share. The Company’s registration statement emphasized its plans to develop a large electric generation campus for AI data centers and identified an investment-grade “First Tenant” for its Project Matador site. The registration statement stated that, on September 19, 2025, Fermi had entered into a letter of intent with the First Tenant to lease a portion of the site on a triple-net basis for an initial twenty-year term, with four five-year renewal options.

In November 2025, the Company further announced that the First Tenant had entered into an Advance in Aid of Construction Agreement agreeing, subject to conditions, to advance up to $150 million toward construction costs.

On December 12, 2025, Fermi disclosed that the First Tenant had terminated the AICA the prior day, eliminating a key funding arrangement for the Project. Although Fermi stated that lease negotiations continued under the letter of intent, the market reacted negatively, and Fermi’s stock price fell more than 33%, closing at $10.09 per share, well below the IPO price.

The court-appointed lead plaintiff is the investor with the largest financial interest in the relief sought by the class who is adequate and typical of class members who directs and oversees the litigation on behalf of the putative class. Any member of the putative class may move the Court to serve as lead plaintiff through counsel of their choice, or may choose to do nothing and remain an absent class member. Your ability to share in any recovery is not affected by the decision to serve as a lead plaintiff or not.

Faruqi & Faruqi, LLP also encourages anyone with information regarding Fermi’s conduct to contact the firm, including whistleblowers, former employees, shareholders and others.

To learn more about the Fermi class action, go to www.faruqilaw.com/FRMI or call Faruqi & Faruqi partner Josh Wilson directly at 877-247-4292 or 212-983-9330 (Ext. 1310).

Follow us for updates on LinkedIn, on X, or on Facebook.

Attorney Advertising. The law firm responsible for this advertisement is Faruqi & Faruqi, LLP (www.faruqilaw.com). Prior results do not guarantee or predict a similar outcome with respect to any future matter. We welcome the opportunity to discuss your particular case. All communications will be treated in a confidential manner.

A photo accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/5ff01ee7-bbc3-40e4-9965-1709ca818339

This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.

Concerns about the prospects for Lumen Technologies Inc. (NYSE: LUMN) have lingered. However, recent quarterly results suggest a positive shift in its financial health, driven by a focus on strengthening its balance sheet and improving liquidity through debt reduction. The global telecommunications company has also focused on improving customer satisfaction. Yet, it still faces challenges with declining revenue and with free cash flow.

The Louisiana-based company has been around a long time, so it was a surprise to some when the stock was at risk of being delisted from the New York Stock Exchange in 2023, after its price per share briefly dipped below $1.00. Those struggles continued into 2024, but by mid-summer, the stock surged as demand for its high-speed fiber-network solutions began to grow. The company secured deals with Microsoft and other leading tech companies that require increased connectivity between their data centers due to the explosive growth of artificial intelligence (AI).

Lumen partnered with IBM to unlock scalable AI for businesses and with Google Cloud to provide advanced cloud and network solutions to meet the growing demands of AI workloads. Lumen strengthened its financial position and freed up capital for long-term growth by refinancing its term loans and selling its fiber-to-the-home business to AT&T. CEO Kate Johnson projected the company’s return to growth by 2029.

24/7 Wall St. has performed analysis to determine if the company is fundamentally flawed, or if AI demand and strategic partnerships will be enough to see its stock continue on its bull run.

Lumen’s Recent Success From July 1, 2024, to September 30, 2024, the shares went on a tear. The stock, which was trading at just $1.11 at the start of the third quarter of 2024, surged 540% by the end of the third quarter. That was quite the reversal, given how the stock has slid 83.4% since hitting its all-time high of $49.45 on June 1, 2007. But market drivers are very different today, and even with the emphasis on AI development, Lumen stock is struggling to maintain that bounce.

Year Share Price Revenue* Net Income* 2015 $25.87 $17.900 $0.795 2016 $24.12 $17.470 $0.744 2017 $16.99 $17.656 $0.356 2018 $14.90 $23.433 $0.964 2019 $13.42 $22.401 $5.157 2020 $9.75 $20.712 $1.351 2021 $12.55 $19.687 $2.019 2022 $5.22 $17.478 $1.713 2023 $1.83 $14.557 $7.334 2024 $5.31 $13.108 −$0.550 2025 $7.77 $12.402 −$1.739 *Revenue and net income in $billions

Over the past decade, Lumen’s revenue decreased by more than 30%, while net income fell by over 318%. As the company battled through its dated infrastructure and a significant debt load, shares fell significantly from $25.87 in 2015 to $7.77 in 2025. However, Lumen has been able to better balance its books, with total assets and total liabilities nearly aligned in 2025 to the tune of $34.342 billion and $35.459 billion, respectively.

Three Key Drivers of Lumen Stock Performance

As the 57-year-old tech company looks forward to the rest of the decade, 24/7 Wall St. has identified three key drivers that are likely to have a positive impact on Lumen Technologies’ growth metrics and stock performance through 2030.

AI-Focused Fiber Infrastructure Expansion Lumen is transforming into an AI infrastructure provider by focusing on high-speed fiber connectivity for AI and cloud services. A multi-billion-dollar program is underway to expand its fiber network, adding 34 million fiber miles by the end of 2028. Securing long-term contracts with major tech companies for this network is expected to generate high-margin, recurring revenues and improve overall margins.

Debt Restructuring and Balance Sheet Repair Managing its substantial debt is critical for Lumen’s future. Through asset sales and refinancing high-interest debt, the company aims to significantly reduce its gross debt to $13.2 billion and cut annual interest expenses by nearly half. This strategy is designed to provide greater financial flexibility for growth investments, boost investor confidence, and transition the company toward stable growth.

Return to Revenue and Earnings Growth Achieving top-line and earnings growth is essential for sustained stock performance. Despite ongoing declines in older services, management anticipates that new digital and AI-related revenues will begin to outweigh these declines in 2026. Lumen projects growth in its business segment revenues in 2028, leading to overall company revenue growth in 2029. This is expected to result in positive earnings per share and a potential increase in market valuation.

How Lumen’s Next Few Years Could Play Out

Analysts currently have a consensus median one-year price target for Lumen stock of $7.64, which is less than the current price. At present, they see no upside potential. Of 12 analysts covering the stock, only one recommends buying shares.

By the end of 2026, 24/7 Wall St.’s forecast for Lumen shares is just $5.62, which represents downside potential of more than X%, based on an annualized EPS of −$0.26.

However, beginning in 2027 and continuing through 2030, we expect Lumen to post positive EPS, growing from $0.06 to $0.76, based on revenue growth from $13.61 billion in 2027 to $14.8 billion in 2030.

Year Revenue* EPS 2026 $13.45 −$0.23 2027 $13.61 $0.06 2028 $13.72 $0.43 2029 $14.14 $0.42 2030 $14.38 $0.76 *Revenue in $billions

By the conclusion of 2030, 24/7 Wall St. estimates that Lumen Technologies stock will be trading for $9.88 per share. Here is how it gets there:

Year Price Target Potential Upside 2026 $5.62 −29.4% 2027 $5.79 −27.3% 2028 $5.81 −27.0% 2029 $5.67 −28.8% 2030 $9.88 24.1% Up 80% Over the Past Year, Can Lumen Technologies Keep the Momentum Going

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Redwire (NYSE: RDW) and Firefly Aerospace (NASDAQ: FLY) both missed Q3 2025 earnings badly. Redwire posted revenue of $103.4 million and EPS of -$0.29, while Firefly delivered revenue of $30.8 million and EPS of -$0.33. Both stocks collapsed over 20% in the past week.

Infrastructure Builder vs. Launch Provider Redwire focuses on space infrastructure and autonomous systems. The company completed its Edge Autonomy acquisition and reported 50.7% year-over-year revenue growth. Management maintained full-year guidance of $320 to $340 million, and the book-to-bill ratio of 1.25 suggests demand is holding. But the business is bleeding cash with a net loss of $41.2 million in Q3, nearly double the $21 million loss from the prior year. Gross margin sits at just 16.3%, leaving almost no room for error.

Firefly operates launch services and spacecraft systems. Revenue nearly doubled quarter-over-quarter with 98% sequential growth, driven by its SciTec acquisition for national security capabilities. The company secured a $176.7 million NASA Blue Ghost Mission 4 contract, validating its lunar lander technology. But profitability is worse. Firefly reported a net loss of $133.4 million in Q3. Gross margin of 27.6% beats Redwire but remains unprofitable. The company holds $995 million in cash, which buys time but raises questions about burn rate.

Metric Redwire Firefly Q3 Revenue $103.4M $30.8M Gross Margin 16.3% 27.6% Net Loss $41.2M $133.4M Different Bets on the Space Economy Redwire bets on infrastructure supporting satellites and spacecraft in orbit. The Edge Autonomy deal expands into defense-adjacent markets, potentially providing steadier revenue than pure space hardware. The book-to-bill above 1.0 suggests the pipeline is growing, but execution has been messy. Redwire missed analyst estimates by 142% in Q3 and posted worse surprises in Q2 (-1009%) and Q4 2024 (-667%). That pattern suggests either overly optimistic guidance or operational problems management hasn’t fixed.

Firefly focuses on launch services and lunar missions. The NASA contract is a major win, but launch is capital-intensive with thin margins until scale kicks in. The SciTec acquisition adds national security revenue, which tends to be stickier than commercial contracts. The problem is cash burn. A $133.4 million quarterly loss against $30.8 million in revenue means the company spends more than four dollars for every dollar it brings in. The $995 million cash cushion provides runway, but investors need to see a path to profitability.

Planet Labs Offers a Different Profile Planet Labs (NYSE: PL) deserves mention as a third option. The company reported Q3 revenue of $81.3 million with breakeven EPS, and posted four consecutive quarters of adjusted EBITDA profitability. Gross margin sits at 57%, dramatically better than either Redwire or Firefly. The satellite imagery business is more mature, and cash grew 180% year-over-year to $677 million. Planet isn’t growing as fast but is profitable with a clearer business model.

Key Differences Between the Two Companies Neither Redwire nor Firefly has achieved profitability. Redwire has revenue momentum but faces margin challenges and a history of missing estimates. Firefly has secured significant contracts but operates with unsustainable cash burn rates. Investors focused on space infrastructure may find Redwire’s business model more aligned with their thesis, as the company bets on infrastructure scaling faster than launch services. Those who view lunar missions and national security contracts as the primary growth driver may find Firefly’s positioning more attractive. Both companies face the challenge of demonstrating margin improvement and consistent execution before reaching profitability. Planet Labs presents a different risk profile with established profitability and a more mature business model, though without the same growth trajectory as the two unprofitable competitors.

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Broadcom closed Friday trading at $325.17, down 2.3% for the week. While the semiconductor sector gained ground with the SOXX ETF climbing 1.8%, Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) moved against the tide.

Year-to-date, shares are down 6.1% even as the broader chip complex rallies.

Let’s look at Broadcom’s week in more depth. Three top stories suggest while the company’s share price has trended south in 2026, the actual news behind the company has been very positive.

ARK Invest Puts $27 Million Behind Custom Silicon Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment Management acquired 87,148 shares of Broadcom totaling $27 million this week, according to Finviz. The timing matters. ARK doesn’t chase momentum in established semiconductor names without a specific thesis, and the thesis here is custom AI accelerators.

Jefferies reiterated its Buy rating with a $500 price target, pointing to Broadcom’s competitive advantage in custom on-package business for AI chips. The kicker: Jefferies expects Broadcom to continue capturing a large share of Google’s unit volume in calendar year 2027. Google just committed $185 billion in AI infrastructure spending in 2026, and Broadcom supplies the custom TPU chips powering that buildout.

There has been some speculatino across the semiconductor chain that MediaTek would continue gaining significant amounts of TPUs. MediaTek’s stock is up 26% this year while Broadcom’s is down 6%.

However, most recent Wall Street checks indicate volumes for MediaTek will be light in 2026 with Broadcom producing up to 4 million TPU units. Broadcom’s dominance of TPU production looks set to continue into 2027.

While Google would love to apply more pressure on Broadcom by having a second TPU design from MediaTek, the reality is the volume growth they’re aiming for means they’ll have little leverage on Broadcom in reality.

Analyst Consensus Just Shifted Higher 26 analysts weighed in on Broadcom over the past three months, and the average 12-month price target rose 7.8% to $455.46. That’s a 40% premium to Friday’s close. The consensus breakdown shows 9 Strong Buy ratings and 40 Buy ratings against just 1 Hold. Zero sells.

The valuation debate is real. Broadcom trades at 72x trailing earnings, which looks extremely stretched. However, digging into the details we find Wall Street expects $14.46 in earnings in Broadcom’s current fiscal year. Put another way, their forward earnings are 23X, or about market average. That’s a very reasonable rate for a company growing at Broadcom’s rates (adjusted earnings grew 37% last quarter).

Analysts are pricing in sustained AI infrastructure spending. If hyperscalers maintain current capex trajectories, Broadcom’s custom silicon business scales without the margin compression hitting commodity chip makers.

Hyperscaler Capex Dependency Cuts Both Ways The Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) holds Broadcom among its top positions alongside NVIDIA and AMD (Nasdaq: AMD). The fund’s performance is directly tied to Microsoft, Amazon, and Google capex cycles, and that concentration creates both opportunity and risk.

Google’s 5.3% weekly decline reflects broader market anxiety about AI spending sustainability. When stock futures dropped Friday ahead of CPI data and investors rotated out of technology, Broadcom got caught in the downdraft despite fundamentals pointing the other direction.

But here’s what the market is missing: Broadcom isn’t selling general-purpose chips into a cyclical market. It’s building custom accelerators under multi-year contracts with the three companies spending the most on AI infrastructure. That’s recurring revenue with visibility, not spot market exposure.

The weekly price action reflects macro jitters, not business deterioration. Hyperscaler AI buildout commitments through 2027 extend through the timeline of Broadcom’s custom accelerator contracts.

As stock markets continue to be volatile, investors looking for a stable income stream can bolster their portfolios with the addition of attractive dividend stocks. Selecting good dividend stocks from a vast universe of companies can be challenging.

In this regard, recommendations of top Wall Street analysts can help investors make the right choice, as these experts assign buy ratings after a thorough analysis of a company's fundamentals and its ability to consistently pay dividends.

Here are three dividend-paying stocks that are highlighted by Wall Street's top pros, as tracked by TipRanks, a platform that ranks analysts based on their past performance.

Ares Capital This week's first dividend pick is Ares Capital (ARCC), a business development company that offers comprehensive financing solutions to the middle-market. Recently, the company announced better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and declared a dividend of 48 cents per share for the first quarter, payable on March 31. ARCC stock offers a dividend yield of 9.64%.

Following the print, RBC Capital analyst Kenneth Lee reiterated a buy rating on Ares Capital and slightly lowered the price target to $22 from $23 as he adjusted his estimates. "We favor ARCC's strong track record of managing risks through the cycle, and scale advantages," said Lee.

The 5-star analyst highlighted that ARCC's credit performance remains strong despite recent concerns about software lending due to potential artificial intelligence-related disruption. Lee contends that investors are not fully valuing the resiliency of Ares Capital's software-lending business. The company is focused on lending to companies in foundational/infrastructure software, proprietary data, and regulated end markets.  

Lee finds ARCC's credit performance encouraging, with non-accruals unchanged quarter-over-quarter at 1.8% of the portfolio. Furthermore, the company's internal risk grade remained unchanged at 3.1 compared with the prior quarter, and investments in the bottom 2 risk grades remained low at about 4% of the portfolio. Lee noted that management sees minimal AI risk over the near term and manageable risk over the medium and long term.

Overall, Lee is bullish on Ares Capital, given that it is a market-leading BDC with its scale being a competitive advantage. He added that ARCC's dividends are well supported by the company's core earnings per share and potential net realized gains.

Lee ranks No. 689 among more than 12,100 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been successful 62% of the time, delivering an average return of 8.7%. See Ares Capital Financials on TipRanks. 

ConocoPhillipsOil and gas exploration and production company ConocoPhillips (COP) recently reported its fourth-quarter results and announced a dividend of 84 cents per share for the first quarter. The company distributed $9 billion, or 45% of its cash flow operations, to shareholders, including $5 billion through share repurchases and $4 billion in dividends. COP offers a dividend yield of 2.91%.

In reaction to fourth-quarter results, Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta reaffirmed a buy rating on COP stock and raised the price target to $120 from $115. Despite concerns about weaker-than-expected U.S. natural gas realizations and outlook for Lower 48 volumes amid the current commodity prices backdrop, Mehta remains bullish on ConocoPhillips due to its high-quality, low-cost inventory, solid free cash flow, and attractive capital returns.

Mehta highlighted that COP's management continues to target $7 billion of incremental free cash flow by 2029 compared with 2025, at a WTI price of $70/barrel. About $1 billion of this target is expected in 2026, backed by the North Field East project.

"We see long-term value in shares as major projects come online, capital rolls off, and oil supply/demand fundamentals improve," said Mehta.

The analyst is positive about ConocoPhillips achieving its 2029 free cash flow target, supported by its four major growth projects (NFE, North Field South, Port Arthur, and Willow) and $1 billion in cost reductions and margin enhancements. Mehta expects COP to return about 45% of cash from operations, in line with the company's long-term track record.

Mehta ranks No. 559 among more than 12,100 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been successful 62% of the time, delivering an average return of 10.7%. See ConocoPhillips Ownership Structure on TipRanks. 

Devon EnergyAnother dividend-paying stock in this week's list is Devon Energy (DVN), a leading oil and gas producer with a diversified multi-basin portfolio. Earlier this month, Devon announced an all-stock merger with Coterra Energy (CTRA) to become a large-cap producer with a dominant position in the Permian Basin.

Interestingly, upon closing of the deal, Devon plans to offer a quarterly dividend of 31.5 cents per share (up from DVN's current fixed dividend of 24 cents per share) and a new share repurchase authorization exceeding $5 billion, both subject to board approval. Currently, at an annualized dividend of 96 cents per share, DVN offers a dividend yield of 2.14%.

In response to the deal news, Siebert Williams Shank analyst Gabriele Sorbara reiterated a buy rating on Devon Energy stock and raised his price target to $55 from $50. Based on early assumptions, Sorbara expects the Coterra acquisition to be accretive to discounted cash flow per share, enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EV/EBITDA), and free cash flow yield, with net debt to EBITDA leverage reducing slightly.

Sorbara expects the Devon-Coterra combination to be viewed positively, as it boosts DVN's size and scale, helping it to compete with the likes of EOG Resources, Diamondback Energy, and Occidental Petroleum. The 5-star analyst expects Devon's improved competitive position to "ultimately drive a re-rating as the Company executes on the financial and operational front."

Regarding Devon's upcoming fourth-quarter 2025 results, Sorbara expects the company to report another quarter of strong operational and financial execution. He expects investors to focus on early commentary on the Coterra deal, especially insights into assets under strategic review and the company's target of achieving $1.0 billion in annual pretax deal synergies by the end of 2027.

Sorbara ranks No. 313 among more than 12,100 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been successful 63% of the time, delivering an average return of 15.1%. See Devon Energy Stock Buybacks on TipRanks.

All 5 stocks that I will discuss in today's video have gone through some sort of pullback, and that volatility is expected to continue throughout the foreseeable future as investors rotate. However, some it appears like the sell-off has been overdone and I want these stocks in my portfolio.

One of the 5 stocks we will look at today includes Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) which is an AI company that has gone through plenty of ups and downs. I believe that will continue but like the growth trajectory for the name.

Watch this short video to learn more, consider subscribing to the channel, and check out the special offer in the link below.

*Stock prices used were end-of-day prices of Jan. 30, 2026. The video was published on Jan. 31, 2026.

Mark Roussin, CPA has positions in AbbVie, Marvell Technology, and MercadoLibre. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AbbVie, Marvell Technology, MercadoLibre, and Zscaler. The Motley Fool recommends Capital One Financial. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Mark Roussin is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through their link, they will earn some extra money that supports their channel. Their opinions remain their own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.

The Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF has gone from a little-known outlier to one of the best-performing emerging markets ETFs in the world.

Who doesn't love a good underdog story?

The exchange-traded fund (ETF) industry has largely been dominated by three heavyweights: Vanguard, State Street, and BlackRock. With other major issuers, such as Schwab, Invesco, and JPMorgan Chase, also looming, it's become increasingly difficult for the little guy to gain traction.

But every once in a while, someone breaks through.

Enter Perth Tolle. Originally a private wealth advisor at Fidelity, she founded Life & Liberty Indexes with a simple premise. When investing in emerging markets, countries with greater levels of personal, political, and economic freedoms are more likely to outperform the broader emerging markets indexes.

In 2017, the Freedom 100 EM Index was launched. Tolle initially pitched an ETF based on the index to several major players, including BlackRock and State Street, but they declined to take it on. In 2018, Alpha Architect agreed to help bring it to market, and in 2019, the Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF (FRDM +0.18%), which tracks that index, debuted.

Source: Getty Images.

What is the Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF? The investment process behind this ETF is pretty straightforward. After applying a minimum market cap screen for 24 eligible emerging market economies, each country is scored across 87 different freedom variables. These include levels of violent crime, terrorist activity, corruption, due process laws, freedom of speech, legal system quality, monetary system quality, and regulation.

State-owned enterprises are wisely excluded since profit is often not their primary objective. Qualifying components get market-cap-weighted across included countries.

Image source: Freedom ETFs.

Overall, this is a smart concept that hits on many fronts. All the fund is really doing is pulling out the countries and stocks with the greatest opportunity set for success. By eliminating countries and companies that are facing challenges due to any number of political or economic factors, you put a heavy quality tilt in the portfolio that favors outperformance over time.

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And outperform it has!

Over the past five years, its 99% total return is nearly 5 times that of the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM +0.43%).

FRDM Total Return Price data by YCharts. ETF = exchange-traded fund.

Perhaps more impressive is that excluding state-owned enterprises or choosing a quality tilt over the past few years hasn't been an automatic source of extra returns. In fact, neither of those paths has really added to returns at all if you look at the major indexes.

But the Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF has managed to pull it off. Its precise selection strategy has managed to pick winners and avoid losers to create a lot of alpha for shareholders.

And investors have taken notice, too. The fund is up to about $2.5 billion in assets under management (AUM). It may not ever compete with the bigger players in terms of sheer size, but its performance record can stand up to any of them!

Nio's preliminary data shows the company generated adjusted profit from operations during the fourth quarter -- but don't overlook the drawback to its operating margins.

Over the past four months Nio (NIO 0.10%) has shed roughly 35% of its value, giving risk-tolerant investors an opportunity to scoop up shares of a promising Chinese electric vehicle (EV) maker. The great news for potential investors is that Nio is turning a corner and is about to post its first adjusted profit thanks to consistently improving margins. Despite the great news, and it is, there is a downside that comes with Nio and its margins.

Turning the corner Nio is taking a big step forward for investors as it anticipates, based on preliminary data, to report its first-ever adjusted profit from operations between $100 million and $172 million for the fourth quarter of 2025. It's a big step and sets the stage for the company to reach its goal of achieving at least breakeven for the full-year 2026.

Image source: Nio.

Getting to this point was made possible by Nio's rising margins and consistent growth in sales volume, especially as its two newer sub-brands Onvo and Firefly gain traction. Nio ended on a high note with sales surging 54.6% in December compared to the prior year, to a new monthly high of 48,135 deliveries. Fourth-quarter 2025 sales jumped an even stronger 71.7% compared to the prior year, to nearly 125,000 vehicles.

Despite its newer brands often selling at lower prices than its namesake premium Nio brand, and an ongoing price war in China's EV industry, its gross margins have made consistent progress over recent years.

NIO Gross Profit Margin data by YCharts

Nio recently announced it would report an adjusted profit from operations for the first time and investors should be more optimistic about its path forward. However, there is also more for investors to consider.

What's the catch? While Nio has consistently improved its gross profit margins, and should continue to do so, it's also true that it consistently trails its nearest competitors in operating margin.

NIO Operating Margin (TTM) data by YCharts

One reason Nio comes up short compared to competitors is the financial drain of its battery swapping network. The difference is essentially that gross profit margin will indicate product profitability while operating profit margin goes a step further and includes indirect operating expenses, such as rent, salaries, or marketing.

The simple premise was to swap fully charged batteries out to consumers needing to recharge, essentially done as quickly as refilling a gasoline tank. The drawback is that the battery swap network is vast and requires significant upfront capital investment, as well as ongoing operating costs such as rent, maintenance, and battery inventory, which have weighed on the company's financials.

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It's true that Nio's battery swap network could one day become a significant competitive advantage, but currently it's mostly a high-cost pile of uncertainty. Right now due to the low number of Nio vehicles on the road opting for battery-as-a-service (BaaS) and the increasing quality of substitute products such as fast-charging options, Nio's battery swap network will have a tough time pushing toward profitability. Ultimately, Nio's announcement of its first adjusted profit is great news, so long as investors keep the big picture in mind and understand that Nio may trail its competitors' operating margin for the long term.

Though President Donald Trump's tariff and trade policy may garner the headlines, something more fundamental is at risk of derailing this high-flying stock market.

The third year of Wall Street's bull market rally didn't disappoint. When the curtain closed last year, the S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.05%) had risen 16%, marking its third consecutive year of gains totaling at least 16%. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI +0.10%) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC 0.22%) both rallied by double digits and leaped to several record-closing highs.

Though catalysts have been bountiful for stocks -- looking at you, artificial intelligence (AI) -- this historically pricey market is also rife with potential red flags. Stock market corrections are the price of admission to the greatest wealth creator on the planet, and several headwinds are mounting that threaten to pull the rug out from beneath Wall Street.

A lot of attention is currently being paid to President Donald Trump's tariff and trade policy and its effect on corporate America. While historic stock market volatility stemming from Trump's tariff unveiling in early April underscores the uncertainty surrounding this issue, there's a far more sinister worry for Wall Street and investors: earnings quality.

President Trump conducting an interview. Image source: Official White House Photo by Joyce N. Boghosian.

Trump's tariffs are having a modest inflationary impact In the two days following the reveal of the president's tariff and trade policy on April 2, the benchmark S&P 500 lost 10.5% of its value. This marked its fifth-steepest two-day decline since 1950.

Initially, Trump introduced a 10% global tariff rate, as well as higher "reciprocal tariffs" on dozens of countries that were deemed to have adverse trade imbalances with the U.S.

Since introducing this tariff and trade policy over 10 months ago, several changes have been made to the original reciprocal tariff rates due to dealmaking and/or implementation pauses. However, the threat of President Trump imposing new or higher tariffs on select countries has persisted since April 2025.

Aside from the uncertainty about when tariffs may be implemented, there's concern about how these import taxes can impact American businesses and jobs. For this, I'll turn to an analysis ("Do Import Tariffs Protect U.S. Firms?") from four New York Federal Reserve economists, writing for Liberty Street Economics.

According to the contributing authors, Trump's China tariffs in 2018-2019 had a lasting impact on public companies long after their initial implementation. U.S. companies affected by these tariffs, on average, saw their labor productivity, employment, sales, and profits decline from 2019 to 2021. That's clearly not good news for corporate earnings if history were to repeat with the latest round of Trump tariffs.

Additionally, the inflation rate has moved modestly higher since the president's tariffs began affecting the U.S. economy. Input tariffs (duties placed on imported goods used to complete the manufacture of a product domestically) have increased production costs for select businesses, leading to higher prices for consumers. A higher inflation rate makes it less likely that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates.

While Donald Trump's tariffs have certainly made waves on Wall Street, they're of far less concern to the stock market than earnings quality.

Image source: Getty Images.

Wall Street has an undeniable earnings quality issue To preface the following discussion, valuing stocks and the broader market is a subjective task. There isn't a one-size-fits-all blueprint that investors use to evaluate businesses or major stock indexes, meaning there's always going to be some degree of unpredictability to short-term stock movements.

Nonetheless, we entered 2026 with the second-priciest stock market in history, according to data from the S&P 500's Shiller Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio, also known as the Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE Ratio). This valuation tool, which has averaged 17.34 when back-tested over 155 years, has been vacillating between 39 and 41 for months. Only the dot-com era was pricier than the rise of AI.

Earnings quality is paramount to maintaining this valuation premium. By "earnings quality," I simply mean that fast-growing businesses are generating their profits from their operations and not relying on less desirable means to effectively "pad their stats." While some market leaders are absolutely delivering for their shareholders, others are clear examples of Wall Street's earnings-quality issue in action.

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For instance, "Magnificent Seven" member Tesla (TSLA +0.06%) is trading at an estimated 202 times forecast earnings per share (EPS) in 2026. For a triple-digit forward P/E, we'd expect jaw-dropping growth and the company's operations to be doing the heavy lifting. What investors are actually getting is projected sales growth of less than 9% this year and a significant reliance on unsustainable income sources.

These unsustainable income sources consist of automotive regulatory credits the company receives for free from governments around the world and net interest income earned on its cash. In 2025, Tesla generated $1.99 billion from regulatory credits and approximately $1.34 billion in interest income (after interest expenses). These unsustained and non-innovative income sources accounted for a whopping 63% of its pre-tax income!

But Tesla isn't the only Magnificent Seven stock whose earnings quality should be called into question. While Apple (AAPL 2.20%) is still generating boatloads of operating cash flow, it's been relying on a share buyback smoke-and-mirrors show to obfuscate its lack of real earnings growth.

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Since initiating its share repurchase program in 2013, Apple has bought back $841 billion of its common stock and lowered its outstanding share count by more than 44%. Buybacks of this magnitude have had a decisively positive impact on its EPS.

In Apple's fiscal 2022 (Sept. 24, 2022), it generated $99.8 billion in net income and produced $6.15 in full-year EPS. By fiscal 2025 (ended Sept. 27, 2025), it generated $112 billion in net income and $7.49 in EPS. Net income only rose 12.2% over three years, but EPS jumped nearly 22%. Apple has been masking subpar sales and profit growth with its market-leading share-repurchase program.

To be clear, what Tesla and Apple are doing is perfectly legal and smart from a business standpoint. But amid a historically pricey stock market, this isn't what you, as an investor, should want to see from market leaders. Wall Street's influential businesses should lead with innovation, not share buybacks, interest income, automotive regulatory credits, and other non-innovative sources of revenue/income.

Wall Street has an earnings quality problem, and it may come back to bite investors.

At some point in the 1980s and 90s, the free hot breakfast became a staple of the hospitality industry. At many a Holiday Inn or Hampton Inn, the lobby at 8 a.m. is a pinwheel of pajama-clad kids, frazzled parents, and solo business travelers jockeying for position in front of the waffle maker. Meanwhile, self-serve cereal bars dispense Froot Loops and Lucky Charms, and hot platters of endless eggs and turkey sausage steam under heat lamps. For many, this breakfast spread is part of the appeal of travel. It endures to this day, but it is facing new economic threats and evolving hotel business models.

At hotels, which have been ditching items like free soaps and even bathroom doors to economize, the free breakfast is a sacred cow that some worry will not survive, increasingly seen by hotel operators as an money pit eating into the thin margins of the business. Last year, Hyatt Hotels' Hyatt Place brand removed free breakfast from 40 of its properties. Holiday Inn, owned by IHG, eliminated a la carte breakfast items in favor of a buffet-only model — a cost-cutting measure that preserves the breakfast buffet offering while reducing labor and food waste. 

Gary Leff, who runs the travel blog View from the Wing and first reported on Holiday Inn's breakfast changes, said that the threat to the free breakfast should be viewed within the broader trend in the lodging industry to look for ways to cut costs for owners. "That goes far beyond breakfasts, to things like housekeeping — less often during a stay, less extensive when it's done during a stay — to bulk toiletries rather than individual mini-bottles to eliminating products like alarm clocks in rooms," Leff said.

Despite the free breakfast's staying power, the math never added up for the business, according to Curtis Crimmins, the CEO and founder of boutique hotel concept Roomza. "It was a loyalty play — a loss leader meant to drive signups, repeat bookings, and extended brand loyalty. I would argue that once free breakfast makes the shift from being a 'surprise and delight' endearing moment to an expectation, then its days are numbered," Crimmins said. "Looking for proof of this slow demise in your average Holiday Inn Express breakfast area? Look no further than the recent explosion of 'Grab and Go' options. That's not a coincidence," he said. 

Leff says that catering to a more affluent customer, as in the case of Hyatt Hotels, may offer operators more latitude to eliminate breakfast.

A Hyatt spokesperson said while the company has "tested breakfast options at select Hyatt Place hotels that offer guests the ability to book rates that do not include breakfast ... Most Hyatt Place hotels in the U.S. continue to offer complimentary breakfast to all guests."

Evaluations are ongoing. "As part of our ongoing commitment to delivering value to our guests, including World of Hyatt members, we are continually evaluating breakfast options that best serve our guests and our hotels," the Hyatt spokesperson said.    

Leff says Hyatt has not released data on the trial, and many guests probably just assume breakfast will be free when they book at this point. "Unclear yet whether Hyatt can get away with not doing limited-service breakfast," he said. 

In the current economy with higher-income consumers leading the spend, luxury has been a bright spot within travel. Marriott International CEO Anthony Capuano describes the hotel business right now as being emblematic of the K-shaped economy receiving so much attention. "There are economic headwinds and some uncertainty but we continue to see the consumer prioritizing travel and experiences," Capuano told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" last week after its most recent earnings. "Luxury was a real highlight for us," Capuano said, adding that 10 percent of Marriott's portfolio is in the luxury tier.  

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Marriott has made breakfast changes in some overseas luxury locations. For instance, the Regis Macao eliminated free breakfast for Platinum, Titanium, and Ambassador loyalty members as of March 2025 and replaced it with bonus points or discounted breakfast instead. Some Reddit users have posted this month about free omelettes disappearing from Marriott breakfast bars and now being part of the paid full breakfast buffet, but a Marriott spokesman said that is not a company-wide policy and, if true, would be individual hotel operators making that decision. 

The majority of travelers expect free breakfastThe consumer split is leading to a bifurcation of breakfast models, with higher-end customers going towards paid eggs benedict and homemade croissants while middle- and lower-income consumers crowd the free buffet.

To be sure, Americans like their hotel breakfast. Among guests who partake of hotel food and beverage during their stay, the vast majority (78%) eat breakfast in the hotel, according to the 2025 JD Power North America Hotel Guest Satisfaction Study. Of that 78 percent, only 8 percent is paid, primarily at upper tier hotels where the trend is taking root. 

Andrea Stokes, hospitality practice lead at JD Power, said that data suggests guests continue to rate breakfast as an important part of their hotel stay. "This proportion is even higher at limited-service upper midscale and midscale hotel brands where complimentary breakfast is typically part of the hotel brand's standard offering," Stokes said. 

When JD Power asks upper midscale and midscale hotel guests to rate the importance of hotel features or amenities, about half (47%) rate complimentary breakfast as "need-to-have" (versus only nice-to-have).

Mitchell Murray, CEO of Station House Inn and three other boutique hotels in Lake Tahoe, California, says while large chain hotels can offer economies of scale, free breakfast can account for roughly 5% of total revenue, closer to 6–7% once labor is included. "That's a meaningful cost, and many operators are asking, 'Does free breakfast actually generate 5% more revenue or bookings?' In many cases, the answer is no," Murray said. He added that when breakfast is free, quality often suffers — think mediocre coffee, watery eggs, frozen potatoes. "It's edible, but rarely memorable or value-adding," Murray said. 

One of Murray's properties is a Holiday Inn Express which he is transitioning to an independent hotel this year and where he plans to do away with the free breakfast after the change, once freed from corporate mandates. Major hotel brand franchisors have specific brand standards that franchisees must adhere to, and this includes food and beverage standards. 

Best Western, though, has no plans to unplug the waffle iron. "Offering a complimentary breakfast is an important part of our guest experience across much of our portfolio," said the hotel chain's CEO Larry Cuculic. "For travelers, free breakfast simplifies the stay, delivers meaningful value and influences booking and loyalty decisions, especially in the midscale and upper-midscale segments," Cuculic said. 

Cuculic says the economics still make sense: breakfast supports guest satisfaction and repeat business, by leveraging the purchasing power of its extensive hotel network, Best Western can help hotels manage costs while maintaining quality and consistency, "making breakfast both a friendly touchpoint for guests and a driver of long-term loyalty," he said. 

Holiday Inn Express is also standing by the free breakfast bar. "Breakfast plays a critical role in our value proposition and continues to be a major reason why travelers choose to stay with us – it's something they know, trust, and expect from our brand, "said Justin Alexander, vice president, global brand management for Holiday Inn Express, Staybridge Suites & Candlewood Suites. 

How changes to hotel menu will influence travel planningHotel breakfast factors into the travel planning of Aimee Misovich and her family. The Holland, Michigan, resident said that her family are Hilton Honors members. "So we always stay at their properties — typically, Embassy Suites, Homewood or Hampton Inn. All three still offer free hotel breakfasts," Misovich said, adding that she likes the variety offered. 

"Homewoods began offering overnight oats and chia puddings. I do partake of the latter. Other times I'll just have a bagel with cream cheese, or a sausage patty inside a bagel for a breakfast sandwich of sorts," Misovich said. While she added that the quality can vary from property to property, the breakfasts are still appealing. 

"I certainly hope Hilton keeps their free breakfasts! After all, they're not really 'free'—I'm sure they're factored somehow into room prices," Misovich said. She also noted that foods she eats at hotel breakfasts are rarely ones she eats at home, "so they're a treat to me when we travel." 

The food and beverage offering, even if only for breakfast service, can be a key differentiator for limited-service hotel brands. "Any hotels that consider scaling back or eliminating free breakfast must focus on demonstrating value in other ways," Stokes said. 

Rita Chaddad, a faculty member who teaches courses on tourism and hospitality management at Columbia Southern University, predicts that free breakfast will continue be eliminated in the luxury brands but remain in some form elsewhere, though travelers should expect more changes to come. 

"Breakfast is likely to remain, but the model may become more segmented," Chaddad said. In upper-midscale settings, hotels may be more willing to offer breakfast through credits, optional add-ons, or targeted inclusion — for example, through packages or loyalty benefits. "In these tiers, hotels may have more flexibility to replace 'free' with perceived value in other forms, provided it is communicated well and the guest feels the trade-off is fair," Chaddad said. 

But she added that many of the middle-tier hotels compete on simple, visible value, and breakfast is one of the clearest signals of that value, so there is risk of backlash if it is completely eliminated. "Removing it can create a perceived loss that may outweigh operational savings, even if the hotel's overall cost structure improves behind the scenes. For value-oriented travelers, breakfast is often interpreted as part of the 'deal,' and losing it can complicate the guest's mental math when comparing properties," Chaddad said. 

Chaddad said hotels will increasingly play with the offering, and beyond higher-tier hotels, travelers should be on the lookout for new models showing up as room-only versus breakfast-included choices, breakfast offered through packages or loyalty benefits, or other redesigned formats that control costs while keeping the benefit visible to guests. "The shift may be less about eliminating breakfast and more about adjusting who receives it, how it is delivered, and how clearly it is priced or bundled," she said.

While some of those changes may add to the hotel bottom line, they could come with an added emotional cost. "My kids and I would be really sad if they discontinue free hotel breakfasts. It's part of the fun of traveling," said East Tennessee resident Joanne Peterson. 

Sun, 15/02/2026 - 11:40

Over 260,000 ETH moved to Binance by 'Bitcoin OG' Garrett Jin. We break down the $543M transfer and what it means for Ethereum’s $1,900–$2,150 decision zone.

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More than 260,000 ETH, worth $543 million at the time of writing, was deposited to Binance within minutes, marking one of February's largest concentrated Ethereum inflow events. Lookonchain linked the transfers to wallets associated with Garrett Jin, also known as Bitcoin OG, from the 2010s. This move comes as ETH tries to stabilize near $2,000 after the week of macro data revived the risk-on sentiment.

Tracking the whale: Who is Garrett Jin?A big chunk of 261,024 ETH, worth about $543 million when it was sent to Binance,  became one of the biggest single-venue Ethereum events in February, and it put the spotlight on the short-term exchange supply risk right away.

Whale Alert first noticed three transfers in a row - 69,378 ETH, 96,116 ETH, and 95,526 ETH - from 'unknown' wallets. 

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However, Lookonchain later confirmed that the deposits were linked to addresses connected to Garrett "Bullish" Jin, whom some call Bitcoin OG from the 2010s, but more remembered as an insider who almost perfectly timed the October 10 'Black Friday' crash - the one where crypto market participants lost at least $40 billion. 

ETH/USD by TradingViewThe transfers went straight to Binance deposit addresses instead of going through other wallets, which makes it more likely that the liquidity will be used soon. More to it, Lookonchain had already tracked the same entity selling 5,000 BTC and withdrawing over $53 million USDT from Binance, which suggests tactical capital rotation rather than long-term custody movement. That transaction history makes it more likely that there's active selling going on from the Jin's side.

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Ethereum (ETH), in the meantime, is trading at around $2,074 on Binance right now, down significantly from the highs of January above $3,300. The price structure shows a sharp breakdown, followed by a period of consolidation between $1,900 and $2,150. That range is now like a decision zone, especially when exchange balances are going up.

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Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

In a recent tweet, XRP ledger validator Vet highlights XRP's utility, being used as a bridge currency between pairs like EUROP/RLUSD via autobridging.

"Love to see XRP being used right now as bridge currency between pairs like EUROP/RLUSD via autobridging," Vet wrote in a tweet.

Love to see XRP being used right now as bridge currency between pairs like EUROP / RLUSD via autobridging.

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— Vet (@Vet_X0) February 14, 2026 XRP being used as a bridge currency aligns with Ripple's vision for the crypto asset. Earlier this month, Ripple released an updated Institutional DeFi roadmap, which details how the XRP Ledger is advancing toward everyday institutional use, with XRP at the center of settlement, FX, collateral, and on-chain credit.

It is projected that with each use case in stablecoin payments, FX and remittance, tokenized collateral, lending and credit, compliance, XRP’s role will become more prominent in institutional finance, either as the asset being moved, the bridge facilitating exchange, or the reserve currency backing network security.

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The next three days will see the permissioned DEX amendment launch on the XRP Ledger mainnet.

This feature introduces a permissioned DEX system for the XRP Ledger. By integrating permissioning features directly into the DEX protocol, regulated financial institutions can participate in the XRPL's DEX while still adhering to their compliance requirements.

In permissioned DEX environments, XRP will act as the auto-bridge asset in FX and remittance transactions, settling trades between stablecoins and other tokens.

XRP surges 13%XRP extended its price rebound from a low of $1.34 on February 13 into the third day as the crypto market saw its strongest weekend price action in over 20 weeks.

Sunday saw XRP price rise as much as 13%, from $1.50 to $1.67, alongside increasing volumes. XRP price rose 88% in the last 24 hours to $4.75 billion, according to CoinMarketCap. XRP open interest increased as well by 19% to $2.86 billion.

XRP's price jump follows the broader crypto market recovery as a lower-than-expected CPI reading helped boost the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in the markets.

The consumer price index for January rose 2.4% from the same time a year ago, down 0.3 percentage points from the prior month, and the lowest since May 2025. This gave the markets a reason to believe that interest rate cuts could arrive sooner than expected, lifting both stocks and cryptocurrencies higher.

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Shiba Inu has finally recovered from a severe correction that wiped out about 30% of its market value over the course of a month. After months of consistent selling pressure, SHIB has reported a strong 17% recovery from recent lows, which may indicate to traders that sellers may have reached short-term exhaustion. 

Long-term picture remains bearishThe asset suffered structural damage as a result of the decline. Over the course of the previous month, SHIB continuously formed lower highs and lower lows while trading below its major moving averages, confirming a persistently bearish trend. 

SHIB/USDT Chart by TradingViewDownward momentum was further accelerated by the breakdown from consolidation zones, which led to more liquidations and the forced exit of many short-term holders. The market became extremely defensive as a result, with traders generally anticipating more drops.

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The most recent action, though, raises the possibility of a change in the short-term dynamics. Price action indicates that SHIB is bouncing strongly following several tests of the $0.000006 support region. Increased trading volume during the recovery suggests that traders are once again participating, most likely as a result of short-position covering and dip buyers. 

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The current zone becomes strategically significant for whales and larger holders. Possibilities for accumulation usually arise following a 30% correction, particularly if overall market conditions level off.

Are SHIB whales ready?Before making bigger entries, whales frequently watch for indications of seller exhaustion, volume expansion on rebounds, and stabilization above psychological support levels. Perhaps the most recent rebound is the first sign that such a phase is about to start.   

Since SHIB is still trading below significant trend averages, the overall market structure has not completely turned bullish. Recovery rallies inside downtrends are prone to failure if follow-through purchases do not occur.

Regaining adjacent resistance zones and maintaining gains without an abrupt retracement presents SHIB with its next challenge. In the event that buyers are able to hold the current support and gradually raise the price, confidence may gradually return, allowing liquidity to return to the asset. If momentum is lost, on the other hand, another test of lows could occur.

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Posted: February 15, 2026

The market has regained its appetite for risk, with memecoins once again taking the lead.

At the time of writing, Pepe [PEPE] was trading at $0.00000493, posting a 29.3% price surge. Momentum strengthened as late-session bids lifted the price sharply.

Consecutively, in 24 hours, the volume exploded 283% to $1.07 billion, signaling aggressive speculative rotation.

This surge positioned PEPE as the sector’s leadership proxy. As capital clustered around it, adjacent memecoins recorded sympathy inflows.

The rebound therefore implied sentiment stabilization across high-beta tokens.

Notably, the move lacked a fundamental catalyst; instead, momentum and social discourse drove flows. Rising creator activity, up 17.08% weekly to 2,407, reinforced retail engagement.

Source: LunarCrash/X

Thereafter, whales accumulated trillions of tokens, anticipating reflexive upside. Their motive centered on liquidity leverage and narrative dominance. By concentrating size early, they shaped order-book direction.

Sustainability now depends on volume persistence. Steady inflows would confirm continued risk appetite. Fading turnover, however, would signal rotational exhaustion, slowing the broader memecoin advance.

Memecoins outrun markets while L1s stall at the cycle turn Market structure shifted after Bitcoin [BTC] established its $60,000 bottom. Forced liquidations and capitulation selling eliminated the downside pressure. Thereafter, liquidity re-entered through high-beta segments.

Memecoins reacted first, rallying toward +10% by February 15. Their rebound accelerated as speculative capital rotated aggressively. Social momentum and viral narratives amplified participation.

Source: X

Meanwhile, Layer-1s lagged, hovering near 0% despite the broader recovery. Capital avoided them due to diluted narratives and heavy supply overhangs.

Ongoing concerns about unlocks and ecosystem fragmentation weighed on flows. This underperformance implied reduced institutional conviction.

AI and gaming recovered modestly, hovering around +3% and +6%. However, their upside remained secondary to memecoin velocity.

Traders prioritized reflexive trades over fundamental positioning. Faster liquidity turnover favored meme assets.

Thus, memecoin appetite reflected rising risk tolerance. Sustained inflows signaled speculative expansion, while L1 weakness highlighted structural demand fatigue.

PEPE ignites renewed memecoin momentum PEPE Open Interest expanded steadily, climbing from sub-$200 million levels toward the $600 million–$800 million range. Positioning intensified as leveraged traders re-entered risk.

Thereafter, Open Interest briefly spiked near $1 billion, signaling peak speculative exposure. Liquidations and profit-taking then compressed positioning toward $300 million–$400 million.

Source: CoinGlass

Still, recent rebuilding of over $400 million reflects cautious optimism returning. Rising derivatives exposure suggests traders anticipate further upside.

Meanwhile, broader memecoin pricing reversed prolonged weakness. The sector index rebounded sharply, posting a 28% surge from recent lows.

This recovery followed months of structural drawdown toward the mid-20 region.

Sector: MarkVector

As prices increased, sentiment shifted decisively to risk-on. Strengthening flows in meme assets reinforced speculative leadership.

Together, rebuilding leverage and price expansion implied renewed sector momentum, while signaling traders’ willingness to reprice high-beta narratives upward.

Final Summary PEPE’s volume surge and whale buying reignited memecoin momentum, cementing its role as the sector’s sentiment leader. Continuation depends on sustained inflows, as L1 weakness confirms capital’s bias toward high-beta risk.

ETH price prediction faces mixed signals as Ethereum trades near $2,050 while staking reaches a record share of total supply. At the same time, ETH/BTC remains capped by a long-term downtrend, which keeps relative momentum weak.

Staked ETH climbs past 30% while price stays near recent lowsEthereum's staking rate rose to a new high above 30.5% of total ETH supply, even as ether traded around $2,050, according to a CryptoQuant chart shared by analyst Leon Waidmann on X. The chart labeled “Ethereum: ETH 2.0 Staking Rate (%)” shows the staking share climbing in a steady uptrend since early 2023, while the price line moved through multiple rallies and selloffs over the same period.

ETH 2.0 Staking Rate (%). Source: CryptoQuant  / X

The CryptoQuant data suggests the staking rate roughly doubled from about 15% in early 2023 to more than 30% by early 2026. Meanwhile, the price axis on the same chart shows ether near $1.9K at the latest point, well below prior peaks marked above $4,000 and near $4,500 during 2024 and 2025.

Waidmann described the move as a divergence, arguing that staking continued to rise regardless of market direction. He also pointed to earlier periods when staking increased while price stayed flat or fell, and he said ether later climbed in subsequent months. Those references reflect his interpretation of past market behavior rather than a guaranteed outcome.

Staking locks ETH into validator operations to help secure the network, and it can reduce the amount of ether immediately available to trade. At the same time, liquidity conditions also depend on where ETH sits across exchanges, custodians, and staking providers, as well as how easily holders can exit positions.

ETH/BTC stays pinned under long-term downtrend as ratio hovers near multi-year lowsThe ETH/BTC trading pair remained below a descending trendline that has capped rallies for nearly eight years, according to a biweekly chart from Binance shared by X user TedPillows. The chart labeled “Ethereum / Bitcoin – 2W (Binance)” shows a long series of lower highs from 2017 through early 2026, with each rebound failing near the same falling resistance line.

Ethereum / Bitcoin – 2W (Binance). Source: TradingView / X

At the latest reading, the ratio traded near 0.0293 BTC per ETH, based on the chart’s right-side price marker. Over recent years, the pair posted repeated lower peaks during recovery attempts in 2018, 2021, and 2022. However, each move stalled under the same descending trendline, which continues to define the broader structure. As a result, the market has not confirmed a sustained shift in relative strength toward ether versus bitcoin.

Price action since 2024 shows another bounce from the lower end of the range, followed by renewed pressure as the pair approached the long-term resistance. Therefore, the structure still reflects a broader downtrend on higher time frames. In turn, this signals that ether has continued to lag bitcoin in relative performance across multiple cycles.

TedPillows said a decisive break above the trendline could mark a regime change for ETH/BTC and reshape relative momentum between the two assets. That view reflects the analyst’s interpretation of technical structure rather than a confirmed outcome. For now, the chart shows resistance holding, while the pair trades below the multi-year ceiling that has defined relative performance since 2017.

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Has crypto bottomed? Fidelity signals a forming bear-market floorA leading Wall Street asset manager’s research desk has indicated that the crypto bear-market floor may be forming. The signal centers on Bitcoin’s ability to stabilize in a defined range while volatility compresses.

Within this framing, the $60,000–$75,000 area is treated as a primary zone to monitor for basing behavior. Some market watchers still note the possibility of a lower retest before any durable expansion phase.

Why Fidelity’s outlook matters for Bitcoin and investorsAccording to Fidelity Investments, it began mining Bitcoin in 2014 and launched dedicated crypto services in 2018; its digital assets research team later wrote that Bitcoin and Ethereum had matured into a distinct, investable category. Given that institutional posture, the firm’s cycle read is closely followed by allocators.

Before reproducing the statement below, it is important to note that it reflects a research view rather than a recommendation. Its analysts said, “The bottom of the crypto bear market may have been formed, and a new round of expansion is expected.”

In practical terms, the firm’s macro work frames 2025–2026 as a likely consolidation window. Within that, the current drawdown toward the $60,000–$75,000 band is treated as consistent with a support-building process.

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At the time of this writing, Bitcoin trades near $68,795 after testing $69,400 resistance, as reported by CryptoRank. That location sits inside the envisaged support band that institutional analysts are watching.

A principal near-term risk remains a further push lower if momentum weakens. According to CryptoQuant, a final bear-market flush could approach ~$55,000 in a risk case, implying the range could be probed before any durable base forms.

Price action clustered within a well-defined range typically signals consolidation, not confirmation of a new trend. A decisive loss of the lower boundary would raise the odds of a deeper reset, while steady closes back toward the range midpoint would support a basing narrative.

BTC $60,000–$75,000 support zone and downside watchpointsLevels analysts monitor, including a potential ~$55,000 risk caseMarket technicians are tracking whether Bitcoin can repeatedly defend the $60,000–$75,000 area on closing bases. A swift, high-volatility wick toward ~$55,000 remains a noted risk case if selling accelerates, especially during liquidity gaps.

Holding the mid-range on retests would strengthen the argument for a developing floor. Conversely, a breakdown with expanding range and volume would indicate the consolidation is not yet complete.

Contrasting views: Fidelity, CryptoQuant, and independent analystsThe institutional view emphasizes a forming floor and a consolidation-heavy path through 2026. By contrast, some on-chain research highlights the possibility of one more leg down toward the high-$50,000s before accumulation stabilizes.

Independent market watchers remain cautious, pointing to the need for confirmation via sustained closes and improving breadth. That divergence underscores why risk management and scenario planning remain central during range-bound phases.

FAQ about Bitcoin bear market bottomWhat price levels are analysts watching as key BTC support (e.g., $60k–$75k and ~$55k)?Many watch $60,000–$75,000 as support, while a ~$55,000 downside wick is a risk case if selling accelerates.

What is Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer forecasting for Bitcoin into 2026?Timmer anticipates a consolidation phase into 2026, with the recent ~$60,000–$75,000 zone acting as support and the latest dip aligning with his outlined correction range.

DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.

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The crypto market extended its rally over the past 24 hours as Bitcoin climbed above $70,000. Altcoins led the move, with Pi, Pepe, Dogecoin, and XRP posting double-digit gains. The surge followed renewed risk appetite after the latest U.S. inflation data.

Pi Coin and Pepe Coin Outperformed the Crypto Market Pi Coin surged to $0.1985, its highest since January 20. The token is now up 4 days in a row and has beaten Bitcoin, Ethereum over the last 4 days. The upward movement is due to increasing interest before crucial network upgrades.

Source: CoinMarketCap Network upgrades have been initiated on February 15, and additional updates will continue to roll out in the weeks and months ahead. Investors are also focused on February 20, which will mark the first-year anniversary of the mainnet launch.

Pi has been supported by the broader rally in the crypto market. As CoinGape reported, U.S. consumer inflation release had the headline CPI drop to 2.4% in January. The reading is increasingly approaching the 2% target and rekindles demand for digital assets.

One of the biggest bounces among meme tokens came from Pepe. The price rose to $0.0000054, its highest since late January. The rebound came after a double bottom near $0.0000036 was formed. The neckline of this reversal pattern sits at $0.0000072, which is the high for January. On the other hand, Pepe also created a falling wedge with downward-sloping and converging trendlines.

Source: TradingView Momentum has been improving on the rebound. Some bullish crossovers have been established by the Relative Strength Index and the Percentage Price Oscillator, whose readings were increasing. The nearest resistance for traders to watch is now the $0.0000072 region which is approximately 45% above the price at present.

Dogecoin Surges on Musk News, XRP Nears Breakout Dogecoin is also among the biggest gainers. The token rallied by two digits gains and rose above $0.11 after hovering around $0.095. The surge came after remarks made by Elon Musk about new trading functionalities on X.

Musk added that users will soon be able to trade stocks and cryptocurrencies directly from their timelines. The beta version will be available in one to two months within X Money, the platform’s internal payments system. The aim, Nikita Bier said in an X post, is to build an “everything app,” a superapp that includes investing, payments, posting — and messaging.

In addition, XRP price also experienced a sharp increase of 15.97% in the last 24 hours. The cryptocurrency is trading at around $1.66 after the resumption of buying activity. The move was a result of the news of Brad Garlinghouse, the CEO of Ripple, joining a vital US regulatory committee.

In an X post, analyst Master of Crypto stated that the cryptocurrency is nearing a crucial decision point. The cryptocurrency is currently testing the top of a long-term downtrend channel. XRP is currently facing vital resistance at the range of $1.75 to $1.85.

Source: X The cryptocurrency can break through the range if it experiences high volume. According to analysts, XRP can move towards the region of $2.00. If the cryptocurrency fails to break through the range, it can move back to the region of $1.40 before trying again. XRP’s next move will depend on its response at the resistance point, which is currently experiencing high momentum.

Bitcoin climbing back above $70,000 has clearly lifted sentiment across the crypto market. With confidence returning, traders are once again rotating into higher-risk plays, and memecoins are among the biggest beneficiaries. The sector has jumped more than 12% in just 24 hours, with trading volume nearly doubling and total market capitalization rising from around $29 billion to close to $35 billion.

Dogecoin and Pepe are leading this renewed wave of interest, posting gains of nearly 20% and 15%, respectively. As the DOGE price pushes toward higher resistance levels and the PEPE price tests a key barrier on the chart, the big question now is whether this momentum can carry through the rest of the month or if resistance will slow the rally before a sustained breakout unfolds.

Dogecoin (DOGE) Price AnalysisDogecoin’s volatility has picked up notably since the start of the year, leading to a breakout from its prolonged descending trend. The price recently tested the $0.15 resistance level but failed to secure a decisive close above it, triggering a short-term pullback. However, the rejection did not weaken participation. On-chain activity remains strong, with active addresses rising sharply from around 600,000 to nearly 970,000 — a clear sign of renewed network engagement.

Despite posting double-digit gains, DOGE’s next move now hinges on the immediate resistance zone between $0.11 and $0.12. A sustained breakout and close above this range could open the door to another attempt at $0.15, while failure to hold the momentum may keep the price trapped in consolidation.

DOGE price has rebounded from recent lows, but the daily chart shows it is still trading below a key horizontal range that previously acted as a strong base. Price action remains confined within a descending channel, keeping the broader structure cautious. However, momentum is improving, with RSI holding in the upper range and the DMI nearing a bullish crossover, indicating rising buying pressure. A breakout above $0.135 could confirm bullish intent. If this level is reclaimed as support, DOGE may initially target $0.18, followed by a move toward the $0.20 zone.

Pepe (PEPE) Price AnalysisPEPE price continues to trade under a long-standing descending structure on the daily chart, marked by multiple failed breakout attempts over the past year. Although the token recently witnessed a sharp rebound, the upside remains capped below a well-defined resistance zone and the descending trendline, which has consistently rejected bullish advances. The latest recovery briefly flipped the Supertrend indicator bullish, signaling short-term strength, but price action suggests the move lacks follow-through.

Notably, PEPE appears to be stuck in a distribution phase, with the Accumulation/Distribution line trending lower and printing a bearish divergence. This indicates that selling pressure is still dominant despite intermittent rebounds. As long as the price fails to reclaim the local and pivotal resistance levels around $0.00000514 and $0.00000545, bearish risks remain active. A decisive breakout above this zone is required to shift sentiment and open the path toward higher targets near the $0.000008 region.

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