Market Signal Briefing

Will BTC fill another CME gap on the way down?

The past few days have been nothing short of violent rollercoasters that brought bitcoin and most altcoins down to multi-month lows.

Analysts are now split on whether the largest cryptocurrency has bottomed at $94,000 after dumping by $13,000 in just three days.

Final Shakeout Ahead?
BTC is notorious for its volatility, especially in the TradFi ecosystem, where double-digit price moves in either direction are almost never seen. Bitcoin has definitely matured lately compared to its previous massive crashes of 20-30% in a day. However, it still endures some vivid fluctuations, which seem more violent now, given the higher price. Percentage-wise, though, even yesterday’s big crash pales in comparison to countless others in the past.

Some analysts called the Friday crash a breeze, while others believe the real bottom is not in, and the asset could drop to as low as $74,000. Merlijn The Trader also noted that there could be another leg down in BTC’s cards, due to the existence of a CME gap at around $92,000. Such gaps are often filled, even weeks or months later, and Merlijn suggested that the final shakeout might be around the corner.

BITCOIN LOVES TO FILL THE GAPS.

$97K: DONE.

$92K: NEXT?

Final shakeouts are brutal.

But once they’re done…

Bitcoin takes off when everyone least expects it. https://t.co/wAoRkGFRn2 pic.twitter.com/9q7dYV3Z6C

— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) November 15, 2025

The Bull Case
After predicting another retracement to $92,000, the analyst outlined that it could be the exact push the cryptocurrency needs to stage another rally to fresh peaks. In a separate post, Merlijn noted that Phase E was confirmed as the Wyckoff blueprint “played out to perfection.” He doubled down that this is the final zone of shakeouts and added:

“This is where smart money quietly reloads…

While retail screams for lower prices.

The cycle always repeats.

The question is are you ready this time?”

Additionally, Merlijn outlined the declining BTC reserves on exchanges, which just hit a new all-time low. He commented that such supply drops are rarely combined with price pullbacks, and described it as the “perfect storm is brewing.”

You may also like:

Bitcoin Faces More Downside as Model Points to $74K Bear-Market Floor

How Liquidity Stress and Tax Moves Are Dragging Bitcoin Down

Bitcoin (BTC) Crash Is ‘Breezy’ Compared to 2022 Carnage, Claims Dragonfly’s Qureshi

BULLISH SIGNAL:

BITCOIN EXCHANGE RESERVES JUST HIT

THE LOWEST LEVEL IN HISTORY.

SUPPLY IS DISAPPEARING.

PRICE IS PULLING BACK.

THIS COMBO IS EXTREMELY RARE.

WHEN PRICE DROPS WHILE SUPPLY HITS RECORD LOWS…

THE PERFECT STORM IS BREWING. pic.twitter.com/laymsrqK9v

— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) November 15, 2025

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Pi Network price remained in a tight range this week as the crypto market accelerated.

Summary

Pi Network’s price was largely flat this week as the crypto market crashed.
The biggest Pi whale bought over 5 million tokens this week.
The daily timeframe chart points to a strong bullish breakout to $0.50.

Pi Coin (PI) token was trading at $0.2175 on Saturday, Nov. 15, a few points below its highest level this week. It remains much higher than last month’s low of $0.1510. 

Top Pi Coin whale is accumulating the token
Pi Network price did better than most altcoins this week as its biggest whale continued his buying spree. Data on PiScan shows that he acquired over 5 million tokens in the last seen days. These tokens are currently worth over $1 million.

The whale now holds over 376 million Pi coins, currently valued at over $82 million. He is the biggest holder of the tokens after the Pi Foundation. Most importantly, he is one of the few whales actively accumulating the tokens.

His accumulation is important because it is unclear who he is. His conviction means that he could be part of the Pi Network or an external organization with material information. For example, he could be part of a major exchange that plans to list the token. 

Alternatively, this whale could be an ordinary crypto investor who believes that the token is cheap and that it will ultimately bounce back in the longer term.

Meanwhile, the team launched a new key update on the Pi App Studio, which developers use to build their applications. They launched a code download and upload feature, which will bridge the creator and developer experiences. 

The feature also allows for hybrid development workflows, where creators can use its built-in tools to create apps and then work in other development environments to revise them.

The recent developments on the App Studio are part of Pi Network’s efforts to create an ecosystem that will generate more utility to the platform and shed the ghost chain name.

Pi Network price technical analysis 
Pi Coin price chart | Source: crypto.news
The daily timeframe chart shows that the Pi Coin price has remained in a tight range in the past few days. This consolidation is part of its formation of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, a common bullish reversal sign. 

The token is attempting to move above the 50-day and 25-day Exponential Moving Averages. A move above these averages, which align with the neckline of the inverse H&S pattern, will point to more upside. 

Crossing these averages will point to more gains, potentially to the psychological point at $0.50, which is up by 130% above the current level. A move below the right shoulder point at $0.20 will invalidate the bullish outlook.

TLDR:

Continuous Clearing Auctions create transparent token sales using onchain pricing and block-level clearing.
Bids spread across blocks to reduce volatility and support gradual price discovery during distribution.
Auctions automatically seed Uniswap v4 liquidity at the final clearing price for immediate trading.
Aztec will be the first project to launch with CCA using an optional privacy-focused ZK Passport tool.

Uniswap introduced a new mechanism for onchain token sales as it rolled out Continuous Clearing Auctions. The protocol aims to improve price discovery for early-stage assets and strengthen liquidity formation. 

The launch follows growing interest in transparent market tools that reduce information gaps during token distribution. The announcement outlined how teams can use the system to set fair market prices before tokens reach broader trading.

Continuous Clearing Auctions Strengthen Onchain Price Discovery
Uniswap described Continuous Clearing Auctions as a permissionless method to help projects sell tokens directly onchain. The protocol shared that its system runs pricing, bidding, and settlement onchain to ensure full transparency. 

The announcement explained that teams define token amounts, a starting price, and auction duration before launching a sale. It also noted that projects can add advanced features such as tranches or verification modules.

CCA introduces a gradual process that clears bids block by block. Uniswap stated that each bid includes a maximum price and total spend, which then spreads across remaining blocks. 

Users can place multiple bids and withdraw only when out of range, creating orderly participation. The clearing price adjusts as new bids arrive, giving early bidders a chance at lower average prices.

The protocol highlighted its collaboration with Aztec, which will be the first project to launch with CCA. The optional ZK Passport module offers a way to add private, verifiable participation to the auction process. 

CCA’s structure limits sniping by distributing tokens through continuous clearing instead of a single event. The approach keeps markets stable as supply remains fixed per block.

Automatic v4 Liquidity Formation as Auctions Conclude
Uniswap emphasized that block-level pricing converges as bids accumulate. Each block sets a single market-clearing price, and higher bids fill first before moving lower. 

This method uses pro-rata filling when multiple bids meet the clearing price in the same block. The process supports steady market movement without sudden volatility.

A key feature of CCA is its automatic liquidity seeding on Uniswap v4. The protocol stated that auction proceeds create a v4 pool at the final discovered price. 

This transition places the asset into active markets immediately after the auction ends. The added liquidity positions new tokens for early trading without delays.

The contract is now live for any project that wants to use it. Uniswap shared that additional modules will roll out in the coming months. The development marks the first in a series of tools designed to strengthen token launches on its platform. 

The focus remains on transparent price discovery and stable early-stage trading conditions.

Streaming giant Netflix is the latest company to split its stock, and it has ambitious growth plans following a stupendous 2025.

Netflix (NFLX 3.64%) has been one of the biggest growth stories in recent years. Netflix launched its website in 1998 and began its first subscription services in 1999, renting out DVDs. The company went public via an initial public offering (IPO) in May 2002, but the real turning point didn't come until 2007 when it began offering streaming services. In 2016, Netflix launched its streaming service in 130 countries, and there's been no looking back since for the entertainment giant.

Between its IPO and international launch, Netflix split its stock twice -- once in 2004 and then in 2015 -- after significant run-ups in its share price. Ten years later, Netflix is doing it yet again. It has announced a 10-for-1 forward stock split, with a record date of Nov. 10. So, every shareholder owning shares of Netflix as of the close of trading on Nov. 10 will get nine additional shares for every share held after the close of trading on Nov. 14.

Image source: Netflix.

Everything you need to know about the Netflix stock split
Netflix's stock price has risen by over 900% in the past decade and is currently trading above $1,100 per share. A stock split makes the shares more "affordable" but only in absolute price terms.

That's because in a stock split, the company increases its outstanding share count by issuing new shares to existing shareholders in the stated ratio (for Netflix, it's 10-for-1). At the same time, the price of the stock adjusts according to the ratio.

That means Netflix's share price will decrease by one-tenth from Nov. 17 when the stock will begin to trade on a split-adjusted basis. In effect, the market capitalization (share price multiplied by the number of shares outstanding) of the company will remain the same and so will the value of your investment.

It's more of a cosmetic change -- there's no change in Netflix's fundamentals. Why did Netflix decide to go for a stock split then? By lowering its stock price by one-tenth after the split, Netflix's shares will become more "accessible" to its employees who participate in stock options.

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Investors generally view stock splits positively, as they often reflect management's confidence that the stock price will continue to rise, driven by the company's growth. That holds true for Netflix. The company has delivered some massive hits in 2025, has plenty of content lined up for 2026 and beyond, and is monetizing its advertising business to add another layer of revenue to an already booming streaming service.

2025: A monster year for Netflix
Netflix is a leading entertainment company that offers TV series, films, and games in multiple genres and languages, available in 190 countries. With the appetite for digital content booming worldwide, Netflix's paid subscriber base has grown exponentially over the years, reaching 300 million.

Netflix's revenue is growing steadily, and so are profits and cash flows. In its latest quarter, the streaming giant posted a 17% increase in revenue and 8% growth in net income. Its free cash flow surged 21% year over year.

Netflix's quarterly view share reached its highest level since the fourth quarter of 2022 in the U.S. and the U.K. Management sees plenty of opportunities ahead to expand Netflix's share of TV engagement in these two markets.

Netflix, in fact, is coming off an exceptional quarter:

KPop Demon Hunters became its most popular film ever, with 325 million views.
The boxing match between Terence Crawford and Canelo Álvarez became the most-viewed men's championship fight of the century, clocking over 41 million views.
Q3 was the best ad sales quarter, putting Netflix on track to double ad revenue in 2025.

For the full year, Netflix projects revenue to grow by 16% to $45 billion and operating margin to increase to 29% from 27% in 2024.

Should you buy Netflix after its stock split?
Since a stock split doesn't change the fundamentals of a company, it shouldn't be a reason to buy or sell a stock. Netflix stock is a solid buy either way.

Because original titles are a major business driver, Netflix can stand on its own even if opportunities to license content from other parties drop as the industry consolidates. KPop Demon Hunters, an original feature animation, is a fine example of innovation at work within original titles.

Netflix is also building out live offerings and games to grow its business. Some of the major live events that Netflix has signed up for include the 2026 World Baseball Classic in Japan, and the 2027 and 2031 editions of the FIFA Women's World Cup.

In the upcoming holiday season, Netflix will introduce party games playable on TV using phones as controllers. This could also be a big opportunity to monetize ads. Ads should contribute a larger share to Netflix's future revenue growth.

Netflix's share price has risen 95,000% since its IPO, as of this writing. With the consensus projecting earnings to grow by 25% in 2026 and 27% in 2026, Netflix stock could have a lot more upside. A majority of analysts are bullish as well, with Pivotal Research analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak assigning Netflix stock the highest price target of $1,600 per share. That represents a more-than 40% upside in the stock from its current price.

Spotify's returns might not be as strong in 2026 as they were in 2025.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.05%) has climbed by 16% so far in 2025, but investors who bought shares of music streaming giant Spotify (SPOT 1.49%) at the start of the year would have earned an eye-popping 40% return instead.

Investors have rewarded the company's strong revenue growth and soaring earnings, and all signs suggest its momentum will continue into 2026. However, there is one big reason to be cautious about piling into Spotify stock as we head into the new year. Read on.

Image source: Getty Images,

The global leader in music streaming
Spotify is the world's largest music streaming platform by a wide margin. According to Statista, it has a global market share of 31.7%, with Tencent Music in a distant second place with a market share of 14.4%. Most music streaming services offer a similar content catalog, so Spotify competes by offering users the most advanced technology to enhance their listening experience, and by delivering other content formats like podcasts and audiobooks.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a huge part of Spotify's tech strategy right now. It's embedded in the platform's recommendation engine, where it learns what music each user likes so it can feed them more of it. AI is also at the foundation of new features like AI Playlist, which can create an entire playlist of music based on a simple prompt from the user.

Spotify also announced an integration with OpenAI's ChatGPT in October. Users can now ask the chatbot to find an artist, song, or playlist in their Spotify app, or request a recommendation.

On the content side, Spotify is already a top destination for podcasts, but the company is specifically focusing on building its video podcast library right now because this format drives more engagement. For example, during the third quarter of 2025 (ended Sept. 30), the amount of time users spent watching video content on Spotify more than doubled year over year. The majority of the platform's active users are monetized through advertising, so the more time they spend online, the more ads they see, and the more money the company makes.

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Solid revenue growth and a surging bottom line
At the end of the third quarter, Spotify had 281 million users paying for a Premium subscription, and 446 million free users who were monetized through advertising. The Premium subscriber base grew by 12% year over year, which was slightly faster than the growth in its free users. That was good news, because paying members represent around 90% of the company's total revenue.

Speaking of which, Spotify generated $4.9 billion in total revenue during the third quarter, which was up 7% year over year (or 12% after adjusting for global currency headwinds). With 2025 drawing to a close, Wall Street thinks the company is on track to deliver a record $19.9 billion in revenue for the year (according to Yahoo! Finance), representing growth of 9.5% compared to 2024.

However, the Street is forecasting accelerated growth of 14.5% in 2026, suggesting Spotify's business could gain momentum in the new year.

Turning to the bottom line, Spotify is carefully managing costs to boost its profitability. The company's operating expenses declined by 2% year over year during the third quarter, which contributed to a whopping 200% jump in its net income, to $1.04 billion.

On an adjusted basis, which strips out one-off and noncash expenses, Spotify has now generated a record $3.4 billion in free cash flow over the last four quarters.

The big reason investors should be cautious heading into 2026
Spotify's business is unquestionably strong right now, but investors need to carefully consider its valuation before buying its stock, especially if they are looking for gains in the next 12 months. It's trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 7.1 as I write this, which is a whopping 69% premium to its average of 4.2 since the stock went public in 2018:

SPOT PS Ratio data by YCharts

Moreover, based on Spotify's trailing-12-month earnings per share, its stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 99.2, which is almost four times higher than the 25.7 P/E ratio of the S&P 500. In other words, Spotify is substantially more expensive than the rest of the market.

Even if we value Spotify stock based on Wall Street's consensus earnings estimate for 2026, its stock is still trading at a forward P/E ratio of 45.3. Therefore, if investors buy Spotify stock today and its financial results come in exactly as Wall Street expects, it will still be significantly more expensive than the S&P 500 in a year from now. That doesn't leave much room for upside.

SPOT PE Ratio data by YCharts

Simply put, Spotify stock doesn't look like a great buy right now for investors who are looking for gains in 2026. However, longer-term investors can still do quite well, because outgoing CEO Daniel Ek previously issued a forecast suggesting the company's revenue could reach $100 billion by 2032. That would be a fivefold increase from its expected 2025 result, leaving plenty of room for upside in Spotify stock over the next seven or eight years.

SoftBank divested entirely from Nvidia to make room for other AI investments.

SoftBank Group (SFTBF +1.06%) this week revealed it sold its entire Nvidia (NVDA +1.68%) stake in October, some 32.1 million shares for a total of $5.83 billion.

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SoftBank is a Japanese holding company that focuses on investment management. It invests in public and private businesses through its venture capital funds. The company's Vision Fund is the world's largest venture capital fund focused on technology. And as of the end of September, Nvidia accounted for 19.3% of SoftBank's portfolio.

SoftBank CFO Yoshimitsu Goto said the October sale had nothing to do with Nvidia itself. Instead, the company made several large divestments in the quarter, including the sale of $9.2 billion in shares of T-Mobile US, to raise money for other artificial intelligence (AI)-related investments.

Image source: Getty Images.

SoftBank has new AI investment needs
SoftBank began acquiring its stake in Nvidia back in 2020, before the rollout of OpenAI's ChatGPT started the price rally in shares of Nvidia and other AI-related companies. Share prices of Nvidia are up 1,339% over the past five years.

And now SoftBank is apparently moving on. SoftBank's financial filing said the company entered an agreement with OpenAI in March to invest an additional $30 billion in the company.

"This year our investment in OpenAI is large -- more than $30 billion needs to be made -- so for that we do need to divest our existing portfolios," said Goto. OpenAI is looking to develop human-level AI, also known as artificial general intelligence. The company owns ChatGPT, which has over 800 million weekly active users.

SoftBank is all in on AI
SoftBank founder, chairman, and CEO Masayoshi Son is going all in on AI. He says in a message on the company website that SoftBank's ultimate mission is "the evolution of humanity," and that the mission "will be accomplished through the realization of artificial super intelligence (ASI) -- AI that is ten thousand times more intelligent than human wisdom."

To that end, the holding company is heavily invested in AI companies. In addition to OpenAI, it owns stakes in China's ByteDance, another leader in AI technologies, and Perplexity AI, a rival to OpenAI, plus many other AI-related investments. Son's investments in AI have paid off in a big way. His net worth soared more than 240% this year, to $55 billion, which makes him Japan's wealthiest person.

Despite Goto's reassurance that the large divestment had nothing to do with Nvidia itself, shares of the AI chipmaker fell 3% during the day of the SoftBank announcement.

SoftBank's share price climbed about 3.6% the day of the announcement regarding its Nvidia shares. The stock price is up 129% so far in 2025.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in BWA over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

The AI boom is slated to reach new highs during 2026.

As we approach 2026, investors need to start thinking about what the biggest investing trends will be. I think that nothing has changed over the past three years and that artificial intelligence (AI) investing will still be the dominant theme, even though it started in 2023.

The reality is the AI buildout is far from over, and AI hyperscalers are planning to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on AI computing infrastructure in 2026, breaking records they just set in 2025. Several companies benefit from these massive capital expenditures, but only one is a guaranteed winner.

That company is my top AI stock pick for 2026, and it may come as a slight surprise.

Image source: Getty Images.

The computing unit suppliers are deadlocked in a fierce competition
The easy answer to which company is benefiting from the AI boom the most is Nvidia (NVDA +1.77%). Nvidia has been one of the best-performing stocks in the market since the AI megatrend kicked off in 2023 and has propelled the company to become the largest in the world by market cap. I think Nvidia will continue its dominance, but clearly, competition is rising.

AMD (AMD 0.46%) is stepping up its game by improving its software in collaboration with OpenAI. Broadcom (AVGO +0.58%) continues to announce partnerships with AI hypercalers to develop their own custom AI chips that can outperform GPUs at a cheaper price point. While Nvidia is still the leader in this realm, the competition is heating up.

It's impossible to know which company will do the best over the next few years, but there is a way to invest in all three without worrying about which one will be the ultimate winner: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM +0.90%).

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Taiwan Semiconductor is the world's leading chip foundry, and a significant portion of the high-end chips used in devices from all three of these suppliers originates from TSMC's factories. Taiwan Semiconductor has risen to this level thanks to continuously launching cutting-edge technologies and being able to manufacture them at impressive yields.

One new technology that Taiwan Semiconductor is launching is its new 2nm (nanometer) chip node. This offers massive improvements over the previous 3nm generation. When configured to run at the same speed, the 2nm chip consumes 25% to 30% less power. That's a big deal because energy consumption is a huge focus in the AI buildout right now. If companies can use a lot less power and be able to retain their computing power plans, Taiwan Semiconductor will be able to charge a nice premium on these chips that AI hyperscalers will be happy to pay.

Those chips are entering production right now, so it may be a few quarters before we see technology launched with 2nm chips from AMD, Nvidia, or Broadcom, but their benefits are real and they're coming quickly. Even without this advanced chip node, TSMC is still doing incredibly well and has growth rates that rival the best in the AI revolution.

Taiwan Semiconductor is growing rapidly
During Q3, TSMC's revenue rose 41% year over year. That's faster than Broadcom and AMD's growth rates, and only trails Nvidia's most recent quarter (Nvidia grew at a 56% pace during that quarter).

Taiwan Semiconductor is also squeezing more profitability out of its business, despite massive expansion plans that include building several facilities in the U.S. and around the world.

Despite all of these impressive factors, Taiwan Semiconductor trades for a far lower price tag than any of the computing unit trio it supplies chips to.

TSM PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts

With Taiwan Semiconductor growing faster than most of its competition and trading at a far lower price tag, I think it's a no-brainer buy to take advantage of the AI buildout. Taiwan Semiconductor is an integral part of the AI arms race and deserves the same premium that the computing suppliers get. Because it isn't valued at the same premium as its peers, I think it's an excellent stock to buy now and should be a top performer during 2026.

Keithen Drury has positions in Broadcom, Nvidia, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Nvidia, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Growth stocks provide ballast for this venerable Vanguard ETF, which is home to an array of beloved megacap names.

Sometimes, the best thing an investor can do is not to fight trends, particularly the really obvious ones. A prime example is the competition between growth stocks and their value counterparts.

For the six years spanning 2019 to 2024, the Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF (VOOG +0.08%) trailed comparable value-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on just two occasions: 2019 and 2022. In 2019, value's "win" over growth, as measured by this ETF, was negligible. In 2022, all value did was perform less poorly amid bear market conditions.

With just seven weeks left, 2025 will go down as another year in which growth trounced value. The Vanguard Growth ETF is beating S&P 500 value-tracking funds by a margin of nearly 2-to-1, meaning value stocks will need a late-year rally of miraculous proportions to close the gap. And with an eye toward 2026, there's still a lot to like with this growth ETF.

Image source: Getty Images.

The ETF's winning recipe
The Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF is home to 217 stocks with a median market capitalization of $1.43 trillion, The $21.7 billion ETF is a de facto megacap fund, and that's quite all right because megacap growth stocks, particularly the "Magnificent Seven," have been the primary sources of U.S. equity market leadership for an extended period of time.

Speaking of the Magnificent Seven, this Vanguard ETF is ideal for investors who are cash-constrained and those who don't want to select individual stocks, because all seven of those stocks are among the fund's top 10 holdings. They combine for 47.8% of its holdings, making this ETF a one-stop shop for market participants who want to tap all seven of those popular names.

Past performance and convenience are nice, but smart investors are a "what comes next" lot. No one has a crystal ball, but this Vanguard ETF may offer some clues about future upside. Taking a look at sector-level forward earnings-per-share (EPS) trends, the top two sectors for bullish revisions over the past 30 and 90 days are technology and communication services -- two groups that combine for 58% of this ETF's portfolio.

NYSEMKT: VOOGVanguard Admiral Funds - Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF

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Another reason I'm enthusiastic about the Vanguard growth fund is that a strong case can be made that talk of an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble has been blown out of proportion. That argument is often rooted in a comparison to the internet bubble of 2000.

But the S&P 500 Technology index, a benchmark that's home to basically all of the tech stocks in the Vanguard ETF, trades at 42 times earnings today. That's not cheap, but it's well below the 67 multiple seen in early 2000. Something else the bubble crowd neglects to mention: The tech sector's return on equity is around 30% today, or well ahead of the 25-year average of 20%.

Keep it simple with this Vanguard ETF
Another smart move for investors is to keep things simple, and that's another reason to be excited about the Vanguard Growth ETF. It's a cap-weighted fund that delivers the megacap tech exposure many investors crave. No frills, no gimmicks. Just efficient access to fundamentally sound, high-flying stocks with the potential to build on recent gains in 2026.

All of that comes with a low cost of admission: The Vanguard ETF charges just 0.07% annually, or $7 on a $10,000 investment. That says this fund is ideal for buy-and-hold investors who want growth exposure without having to deal with stock-picking.

Buffett is stepping down as CEO at year-end.

At the end of 2025, Warren Buffett will step down as chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A 0.82%)(BRK.B 0.81%). Buffett has been the leader of Berkshire for more than 50 years, and his departure could have important long-term consequences for the business.

For now, Buffett remains in charge, meaning this quarter's earnings release occurred under his direct supervision. The results were largely as expected, but there were two surprises investors should be aware of.

1. Warren Buffett isn't excited about the U.S. stock market
For decades, Buffett has warned investors against trying to time the market. In general, the U.S. stock market has headed higher for more than a century.

Of course, any given day, week, month, or even year could be negative. But over time, U.S. stocks have shown an undeniable upward trend. By trying to time the market -- that is, by taking your money in and out of the market periodically -- you slowly stack the odds against you.

None of this means, however, that you can't become more or less defensive over time. If you're approaching retirement and already have enough capital saved, it could make sense to cycle your investments toward less risky assets like bonds.

If you're a stock picker like Buffett, you may also run into the problem of having too few ideas to fill a portfolio. From here, you have two choices: Invest the money anyway into assets you're not too wild about, or maintain a rising cash position despite your wish to remain fully invested. This challenge seems to be exactly what Buffett is dealing with at the moment.

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This quarter, Berkshire reported a record cash position of $381.6 billion. The previous high was set earlier this year, with a first-quarter cash balance of of $347.7 billion.

Since Buffett is against market timing, this likely means only one thing: He can't find anything worth buying more of. This is further evidenced by Berkshire selling more stock than it purchased last quarter.

Put together, Berkshire's rising cash balance and net selling activity should make investors nervous about overextending themselves in current market conditions. But there's one other reason to worry that we will discuss next.

Image source: The Motley Fool

2. Even Berkshire Hathaway stock is no longer a safe investment
Buffett is clearly hesitant to invest in the stock market. But surprisingly, he's also nervous about investing in Berkshire Hathaway via share repurchases. During the past six years, he has repurchased nearly $80 billion worth of the stock, making it one of his biggest investments during that time period. But this past quarter, Berkshire made no share repurchases.

Buffett is a big fan of buying companies that you understand. "Never invest in a business you cannot understand," he is fond of saying. He also urges investors to take advantage of opportunities when they arise. "Don't pass up something that's attractive today because you think you will find something better tomorrow," he has said.

Putting these two statements together creates a concerning picture for investors. Buffett likely understands Berkshire better than any other business. Yet he refuses to direct any of its mounting cash pile back into the business.

Only one conclusion can be drawn: Buffett doesn't think Berkshire stock is undervalued. In fact, he likely doesn't even think Berkshire shares are fairly valued.

"Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn't," he has also said in the past. "They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value."

Buffett clearly isn't a fan of holding cash. Yet he's holding a record amount of it, and he refuses to put more into the stock market. He even refuses to put it back into Berkshire company through stock buybacks.

No one knows where markets are headed next, but Berkshire's latest quarterly results should send shock waves of caution and concern throughout the investing universe.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of MRTN either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Nvidia is bracing for what could be the most consequential earnings reveal of the season. On November 19, the chip giant will unveil its third-quarter fiscal 2026 results, and the Street is watching closely.

Investors may want to take a closer look at this AI growth stock, as its price has fallen 20% in one month.

Oracle (ORCL +2.43%) is expected to report its second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on Dec. 8. It's a tough encore to the tech giant's last earnings report, which resulted in Oracle's largest single-day market cap gain in company history when Oracle surged from $686.3 billion in market cap to $933 billion on Sept. 10.

But Oracle has since given up all of those gains (and then some), even as the broader market has continued to rally.

Here's why the pressure is on Oracle to deliver on its promises to investors, and whether the red-hot artificial intelligence (AI) growth stock is a buy now.

Image source: Getty Images.

The rise of a cloud giant
Oracle's stock price surged in September because the company forecast an ambitious plan to grow Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) revenue over 14-fold, from around $10 billion in fiscal 2025 to $144 billion in fiscal 2030 -- which would be calendar year 2031. If that forecast comes true, Oracle could become the top cloud provider for AI workflows.

To understand why investors are so excited about Oracle, it's helpful to know about the company's history.

Oracle's success stemmed from its database and enterprise software. But Oracle was an advocate of on-premises software and initially resisted the transition to cloud. That all changed in the early 2010s as Oracle began rolling out infrastructure-as-a-service, platform-as-a-service, and software-as-a-service solutions. But it wasn't until 2016 that Oracle announced OCI.

Still, Oracle was a stodgy, relatively low-growth legacy tech giant -- like IBM and Cisco Systems, it was seen more as a dividend-paying value play in the sector. And it certainly wasn't top of mind for investors looking to invest in cloud computing stocks.

In December 2023, Oracle released its second-quarter fiscal 2024 results, which included plans to expand 66 of its existing data centers and build 100 new cloud data centers. Oracle said that it would be able to build these data centers rapidly and inexpensively, thanks to automation, consistent hardware, and remote direct memory access (RDMA) data transfer. And it didn't disappoint.

In its June 2025 quarter, Oracle said it had built 23 multicloud data centers and planned to build 47 more in the next 12 months. In September, Oracle said it had built 34 multicloud data centers, with only 37 coming online in less than a year.

Oracle's forecast through fiscal 2030 hits an inflection point in fiscal 2027 when the bulk of its multicloud data centers begin operations.

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Big ticket AI contracts
Oracle has set lofty expectations for investors over the next few years. But the targets aren't made out of thin air. Rather, Oracle is landing legitimate cloud bookings. In recent months, it has announced mega deals with OpenAI and Meta Platforms.

The multicloud data centers buildout is a response to surging demand from cloud giants Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Alphabet-owned Google Cloud. Oracle competes with these companies but also works with them by embedding its database products in data centers, reducing latency and costs.

Oracle's data centers are ideally suited for high-performance computing due to their AI-first structure -- making them a good fit for high-volume enterprise clients. OCI is especially cost-effective for clients who already use other Oracle services.

Risks worth monitoring
There's a lot of pressure on Oracle heading into its December earnings release. For starters, investors will want more details on the profitability of these AI megadeals. OCI's five-year targets are on revenue, not operating income. Oracle's pricing structure includes generous freebies and rewards that it claims achieve 50% lower costs for compute, 70% lower costs for block storage, and 80% less for networking. Part of those savings is due to the inherent structure of the data centers. But Oracle is undercutting its competitors on pricing, too. These deals aren't a bad idea, as Oracle can attract clients and get them more involved in its ecosystem. But they could also reduce margins and cash flow, which could hurt Oracle's profitability and delay its debt paydown.

Arguably, the biggest risk to Oracle's investment thesis is its highly leveraged balance sheet. Oracle closed out its latest quarter with over $100 billion in total net long-term debt. By comparison, Amazon,Alphabet, and Microsoft all have more cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities than debt on their balance sheets.

Out of all the "Ten Titans," which is a group of 10 leading growth stocks that make up 40% of the S&P 500, Oracle is by far the most leveraged, sporting a debt-to-capital (D/C) ratio over 80%.

Data by YCharts.

The higher the D/C ratio, the more a company relies on debt to finance its operations. But there's some nuance to this. Apple takes on a lot of debt, but it manages it responsibly thanks to its consistently high free cash flow (FCF) and stockpile of cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities. By contrast, Oracle's trailing 12-month FCF turned negative due to surging capital expenditures.

Investors will tolerate leverage if it results in earnings growth. But if one or two key customers pull back on spending, Oracle may not be able to deliver on its promises.

The pressure is on
The faster OCI grows and the more Oracle can monetize AI cloud infrastructure, the more expensive the stock will probably become. Conversely, if Oracle stumbles, investors may be able to buy the stock at a much lower price.

Oracle remains a high-risk, high-potential-reward bet at the crossroads of software, cloud computing, and AI. With the stock having given up all of its post-first-quarter gains, investors are basically getting the five-year OCI revenue forecast for free -- which could be a compelling entry point for those who believe Oracle can make good on its targets.

Daniel Foelber has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Cisco Systems, International Business Machines, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, Oracle, and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of HNST either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

DISCLAIMER: This article is purely for informational and educational purposes. This is NOT investment advice. You should not treat any opinion expressed by SMR Finance as specific investment advice to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of opinion. SMR Finance is not under any obligation to update or correct any information provided in this article. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment discussed in this article. Investment involves risks. This article is not to be relied upon as a substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Investors should obtain their own independent financial advice and understand the risks associated with investment products/ services before making investment decisions.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

The privacy-coin market is heating up again, and the timing is interesting. While crypto traders usually don’t care about grocery aisles or banana import duties, the broader macro story does matter. President Trump’s move to reduce some tariffs on goods not produced in the US hints at a slow easing of price pressure. Economists in the text make it clear that this won’t magically reset inflation, but it does soften the edges: a little less imported inflation, a little less strain on consumers, and a slightly friendlier environment for risk assets.

In a setup like this, the market doesn’t reward everything equally. Assets that already show strength tend to run further, while charts with structural damage usually lag. And when you put Zcash and Dash side by side, the difference is obvious on the daily charts you shared.

Zcash vs Dash: Why This Macro Story Matters for ZEC and DASHTariff relief works slowly. Prices do not fall overnight, supply chains adjust at their own pace, and retailers pass on benefits only when they feel comfortable. Economists quoted in the text even warn that some of the savings may never reach consumers at all. So we are not talking about a dramatic inflation reversal. What we have instead is a small shift in tone: policy moves away from intentional inflation pressure and toward easing. Markets pick up on that.

Crypto usually reacts first at the narrative level. A slightly less hostile inflation environment means traders have fewer excuses to stay defensive. It does not lift the entire market, but it clears the runway for coins that already have momentum. And that is where the Zcash versus Dash comparison becomes meaningful.

Zcash: A Powerful Uptrend With Real Structure Behind ItZEC/USD Daily chart- TradingViewThe Zcash chart shows a market that isn’t just pumping; it’s building a trend. From late September onward, ZEC has walked up its moving averages, hugged the middle Bollinger Band, and then broken out with real conviction. Volatility expanded through November, but even after the run toward the 700 range, the pullback looked controlled rather than desperate.

The important detail is how quickly buyers stepped back in. ZEC dipped into the 530–580 region, found support near its rising trend structure, and immediately produced strong green Heikin Ashi candles again. That kind of behavior is typical of a leader. You can see higher lows forming cleanly, the uptrend staying intact, and the recovery candles erasing the fear of a deeper breakdown.

ZEC sits comfortably above its middle Bollinger Band, and the latest push back toward the 650–700 zone shows the market still respects the trend. In an environment where risk appetite increases slowly rather than explosively, this kind of chart usually benefits the most. Traders want strength they can lean on, and Zcash is offering exactly that.

Dash: A Classic Blow-Off Followed by a Nervous RecoveryDASH/USD Daily Chart- TradingViewDash’s chart tells a very different story. Instead of a steady trend, you see months of flat trading followed by a sharp vertical spike. That move into the 135–145 region was textbook parabolic, blasting far above the upper Bollinger Band. When those candles lose momentum, gravity does the rest.

The selloff that followed didn’t just cool things down; it wiped out a large portion of the breakout. Price fell back into the 60s, struggling to hold the middle Bollinger Band and printing a series of heavy red candles. Only recently has Dash managed a meaningful bounce, reclaiming the 80s and trying to build a higher low.

It’s encouraging, but it’s not convincing yet. A strong asset makes buyers feel comfortable stepping in at multiple levels. A damaged structure creates overhead supply, and you can almost see those trapped buyers waiting to exit somewhere between 95 and 120. That is the challenge Dash faces: it must fight through a lot of prior selling pressure before the chart starts to look healthy again.

Zcash vs Dash: How Tariff Relief Impacts the ZEC vs DASH BattleIf tariff cuts help cool inflation at the margins, the market’s reaction will not be broad or dramatic. People will not suddenly pour risk capital into every altcoin just because bananas might get cheaper. What actually happens is far simpler: traders gain slightly more confidence, and the assets that already show strength benefit from that shift.

Zcash fits that mold perfectly. It has momentum, structure, and steady higher lows. Dash, on the other hand, needs more time. Its rebound is promising, but it is still overshadowed by a heavy correction and multiple resistance layers stacked above current price.

The macro environment favors coins that look strong on their own. ZEC qualifies. DASH, for now, does not.

Price Outlook for Zcash: A Trend That Still Has RoomAs long as $ZEC holds above the 580–600 region, the trend remains firmly intact. A clean daily close above 700–715 would confirm that the recent consolidation is simply a pause before continuation. In that scenario, traders would likely target the 760–800 region next, with room for volatility overshoots if momentum accelerates.

The risk level sits deeper, around 520. A break below that would signal that the trend needs a larger reset. But with the trend behaving as it is, that does not look like the base case.

Price Outlook for Dash: Recovery Possible, But Confidence Is ThinDash needs to reclaim 95–100 convincingly before momentum traders start taking it seriously again. That is the first real test of whether the market is ready to forgive the blow-off. Above 100, a push toward 115–120 becomes possible, but that path is filled with resistance from earlier trapped buyers.

If the asset slips back under the 65–70 region, it risks retesting the entire lower range. In a slow-improving macro setup, that makes $DASH a more speculative pick, not a trend asset.

Conclusion: Zcash Clearly Leads This RoundIf you frame Zcash vs Dash in the context of slow tariff relief, marginally softer inflation expectations, and a market that wants strength rather than hope, the conclusion is straightforward.

Zcash looks like a leader. It trends well, holds support, and recovers fast after dips. Dash looks like it already had its moment and is still working through the aftermath.

In an environment where macro improves gradually and traders remain selective, ZEC is naturally better positioned than DASH. The charts make it obvious, and the narrative fits perfectly.

Bitcoin slipped below its 365-day moving average, raising the risk of a deeper correction.On-chain cost-basis bands show mounting stress, with many recent buyers now underwater.Analysts see likely support at $85,000–$90,000, with worst-case dips toward $75,000–$82,000.Bitcoin fell to $94,000 on Friday, driving concerns of further liquidation and heading towards a yearly low of $76,000. BTC faces growing downside pressure after dropping under its 365-day moving average, a level that has defined the current bull cycle’s support. 

The breakdown has revived concerns of a larger correction, especially as key on-chain cost-basis levels show early signs of stress.

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Will Bitcoin Price Drop Below $90,000?The 365-day moving average, now near $102,000, has acted as Bitcoin’s primary structural floor since late 2023. 

Bitcoin’s failure to reclaim it this week echoes the pattern seen in December 2021, when repeated rejections at this level marked the beginning of the 2022 bear market.

However, the broader market context suggests a mid-cycle reset rather than a full macro top. Liquidity conditions remain unstable, ETF flows turned negative, and long-term holders have been distributing at the fastest pace since early 2024.

Even so, the loss of the 365-day average remains significant. 

Good day to remember this.
Once Bitcoin breaks below the 365-day MA, its pretty difficult to recover. Judging by the data of how previous bear markets started, I would say we are in one.

It would take a complete turnaround of demand, sentiment, capital flows to revert the… https://t.co/IsUlwqAbq0

— Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) November 14, 2025
Historically, remaining below this line for several weekly closes triggers deeper retracements. A sustained breakdown increases the probability of a move toward sub-$90,000.

On-chain data reinforces this risk. The realized price for Bitcoin holders who entered between 6 and 12 months ago is near $94,600. 

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This group accumulated heavily during the ETF-driven rally, and their cost basis often acts as a first capitulation zone in bull markets. 

On Friday, Bitcoin briefly traded below this threshold, pushing many of these holders into unrealized losses.

Those who entered Bitcoin 6 to 12 months ago have a cost basis near 94K.

Personally, I do not think the bear cycle is confirmed unless we lose that level. I would rather wait than jump to conclusions. pic.twitter.com/i9a5M0xnMW

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) November 14, 2025
Similar breaks occurred in both 2017–2018 and 2021–2022. Each period saw prolonged declines after price slipped below the 6–12 month cost-basis band. 

This trend suggests rising pressure on recent buyers and increases the chance of a deeper reset.

Long-range cycle data provides additional context. Bitcoin’s bull cycles show recurring mid-cycle corrections of 25% to 40%. 

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Using the 2025 peak near $125,000, a typical pullback would place Bitcoin between $75,000 and $93,000. These drawdown levels align closely with current technical and on-chain floors.

I see stories about "old whales dumping bitcoin", but the data does not support those stories.

Almost 7 million BTC transacted onchain in 2025. Most BTC came from 2024 transactions. One big 84k BTC 2011 whale. And some 2017-2023 sellers. But that's it, business as usual. pic.twitter.com/w2aHjJ3XmD

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) November 12, 2025
As a result, analysts see three major zones forming. 

Key Bitcoin Price Levels To WatchThe first support sits at $92,000 to $95,000, matching the 6–12 month cost basis and recent ETF inflow levels. This area is likely the first reaction point. 

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However, a stronger correction could push Bitcoin into the $85,000 to $90,000 band, which aligns with a standard 25%–30% mid-cycle decline.

The bearish scenario extends deeper. If ETF outflows accelerate and macro conditions worsen, Bitcoin could retest the $75,000 to $82,000 zone. 

This would represent a 35%–40% drawdown from the cycle high and match previous mid-cycle resets. Drops below $70,000 remain unlikely without a major liquidity shock.

Despite the recent weakness, Bitcoin has not shown a blow-off top or a structural exhaustion pattern. This suggests that current moves form part of a broader consolidation within the bull market, not the start of a new multi-year downtrend.

For now, Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim the 365-day moving average will determine the depth of the correction. 

A quick recovery would ease selling pressure and reduce the likelihood of a move under $90,000. 

Continued rejection, however, raises the probability of a deeper test of the mid-cycle support zones.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.

Harvard, one of the world’s most prestigious universities, has just made one of the boldest crypto moves of the year. The university quietly increased its stake in the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) to $442.8 million, marking a massive 257% jump from last quarter.

Now the big question shaking Wall Street is this: Why is the world’s most elite endowment suddenly loading up on Bitcoin?

Harvard 13F Filing Reveal Massive Bitcoin HoldingAccording to a new SEC filing, Harvard now holds 6.8 million shares of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), worth $442.8 million as of September 30. This is a massive jump, up 257% from the previous quarter. 

This is a rare moment in traditional finance. For decades, big endowments like Harvard and Yale avoided ETFs completely, especially anything as new or volatile as Bitcoin.

Crypto ETF analyst Eric Balchunas says this move is “as strong a validation an ETF can get,” especially coming from one of the most cautious and traditional investors in the world.

Even though the position is only about 1% of Harvard’s total endowment, it’s still big enough to place the university among the top 20 largest IBIT holders. That alone sends a clear message to other institutions that have been waiting on the sidelines.

Bitcoin Takes the Top Spot in Harvard’s PortfolioThe chart in the filing makes one thing very clear, IBIT is now Harvard’s No. 1 position, ahead of Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, and even the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD). The filing shows IBIT making up 20.97% of Harvard’s reported portfolio, far above any other holding.

Along with its Bitcoin bet, Harvard doubled down on gold as well. The university now holds 661,391 shares of GLD, worth $235 million, a 99% increase from June.

The message is clear, Harvard is positioning itself defensively while also preparing for long-term technological and monetary shifts.

What Does Harvard See Coming?Eric Balchunas calls this filing “hugely important,” and he’s right. Endowments move slowly, but once they pivot, others follow. Combined with growing sovereign wealth participation, this may be one of the strongest long-term signals for Bitcoin, even as prices fluctuate in the short term.

Harvard’s move hints at one thing, the smartest money in the world is quietly preparing for a different financial future.

Never Miss a Beat in the Crypto World!Stay ahead with breaking news, expert analysis, and real-time updates on the latest trends in Bitcoin, altcoins, DeFi, NFTs, and more.

FAQsWhy did Harvard significantly increase its Bitcoin ETF holdings?

Harvard boosted its IBIT position as part of a defensive strategy and long-term bet on Bitcoin’s role in future financial markets.

How large is Harvard’s Bitcoin investment now?

Harvard holds 6.8 million IBIT shares worth about $442.8M, marking a major 257% increase from the previous quarter.

What does Harvard’s portfolio shift reveal about its outlook?

With Bitcoin now its top reported holding and gold rising too, Harvard appears to be preparing for economic uncertainty and long-term change.

Could Harvard’s move influence other institutions?

Yes. Endowments move slowly, but once they shift, others often follow, making Harvard’s Bitcoin allocation a strong institutional signal.

Trust with CoinPedia:CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017. All content is created by our expert panel of analysts and journalists, following strict Editorial Guidelines based on E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness). Every article is fact-checked against reputable sources to ensure accuracy, transparency, and reliability. Our review policy guarantees unbiased evaluations when recommending exchanges, platforms, or tools. We strive to provide timely updates about everything crypto & blockchain, right from startups to industry majors.

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Bitcoin just fell to its lowest point since May, but it is too early to talk about crypto winters.

Bitcoin (BTC 1.28%) dropped below $95,000 on Nov. 14, marking its lowest point since May. The lead crypto has fallen by over 13% in the past month and is struggling to climb back above the $100,000 mark -- an important psychological barrier. Today's dip stoked fears that we could be entering another crypto winter.

According to Coinglass data, there were over $1.1 billion in outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the past two days. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, a common indicator of market sentiment, is registering extreme fear.

Image source: Getty Images.

Let's dive in and look at what exactly makes a crypto winter and what it might mean for crypto investors.

Why is Bitcoin falling?
Unfortunately, the uncertainty created by the government shutdown hasn't gone away, adding to risk-off sentiment. As the government starts to reopen, not only could it inject liquidity into financial markets, but key data will slowly start to flow again. Depending on what the economic data shows, both might help to change the tide for Bitcoin.

There's a bigger -- yet connected -- weight pulling on cryptocurrency prices. The Federal Reserve looks less likely to cut rates again in December. CME Group, which tracks the likelihood of rate changes, now puts the chances of a cut at almost 55%. Rate cuts can have a big impact on cryptocurrency markets because they encourage investors to take more risk.

Zooming out, while Bitcoin has posted huge gains in the past five years, there's a chance that the market has become overheated. The exuberance over the potential impact of a pro-crypto administration and the influx of institutional funds may be cooling.

Are we in a crypto winter?
The phrase "crypto winter" gets bandied about a lot, but it doesn't have a fixed definition. It isn't like the stock market, which is considered to be in a bear market when prices fall more than 20%. As a result, crypto social media starts to feel like a Game of Thrones episode with a barrage of "winter is coming" posts every time prices wobble a little.

Broadly speaking, a crypto winter is a period of prolonged negative sentiment. And given that it's only been six weeks since Bitcoin set a new all-time high, I think talk of a crypto winter is a bit premature.

On that note, it's worth viewing the current price drop in context. Bitcoin's price has dropped significantly in the months following its record highs, and those drops did not always signal the start of a crypto winter. According to CoinGecko data:

April 2021: Bitcoin peaked at over $63,500. In July, it dropped below $30,000 (over 50%).
November 2021: Bitcoin topped $67,000. By January 2022, it fell to almost $35,000 (almost 50%).
December 2024: Bitcoin broke the $100,000 barrier, reaching $106,000. In April 2025, it fell to $76,000 (almost 30%).

Each time, Bitcoin has not only recovered, but gone on to break new ground. There are no guarantees, but it is important to keep short-term price fluctuations in perspective.

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How to protect your portfolio when prices fall
Dramatic downward price shifts can be difficult to stomach, even for long-term cryptocurrency investors. Here are three ways to handle price drops.

1. Don't make panic decisions
Whether you're considering buying the dip or selling your crypto because you're worried prices may fall further, take a beat. You may buy only to find Bitcoin drops another 20% tomorrow. Or you might sell and miss out on a rapid recovery.

Consider whether your original investment thesis still holds. If you still see value in Bitcoin long-term, now is not the time to sell your crypto.

2. Ensure that crypto is part of a balanced portfolio
Diversification can help reduce risk and insulate your investments against dramatic price swings in one sector or asset. For example, if high-risk investments like cryptocurrency only make up a small percentage of your portfolio, a crypto winter won't completely derail your finances. Be clear on how much risk you are willing to take, and how much cash you want to allocate to different industries and investment types.

3. Avoid leverage
Leverage is essentially a way to borrow funds to increase exposure. And in a volatile market, it dramatically amplifies the risks. For example, an investor might use 5x leverage to multiply their position by 5, turning a $1,000 position into a $5,000 one. That's great if it amplifies returns. Less so if the market moves in the other direction, as the investor may lose everything. You need to keep a certain amount of funds in your account to trade with leverage. If your balance falls below this, the broker may liquidate your position.

Every market follows cycles of growth and decline, and cryptocurrency is no different. As a long-term investor, what matters is to understand the risk you're taking on and how to mitigate it.

8h40 ▪
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Luc Jose A.

Summarize this article with:

While ETFs backed by SOL have recorded steady inflows for nearly two weeks, its price is plunging, reaching a five-month low. This striking paradox between institutional enthusiasm and spot market weakness raises the question : why does such a supported asset fall so sharply ? Away from classic patterns, Solana reveals the deep, sometimes contradictory tensions currently affecting the crypto ecosystem.

In brief

The price of Solana (SOL) falls to its lowest level in five months, reaching $142, despite strong institutional interest.
Solana ETFs have recorded thirteen consecutive days of positive inflows, totaling $370M in investments.
This gap between massive inflows and price decline reveals tensions between spot and derivatives markets.
Technical indicators are alarming: major supports broken, RSI dropping, and a real risk of sliding towards $100.

A record inflow on Solana ETFs : interest remains strong
While the price of Solana (SOL) is experiencing a marked drop, institutional investors’ interest in derivative products backed by this asset remains strong.

Indeed, Solana ETFs have recorded thirteen consecutive days of inflows, a signal rarely seen on an asset undergoing a correction. On Thursday, ETFs recorded $1.49 million in inflows, bringing cumulative flows to $370 million, for a total assets under management exceeding $533 million.

Bitwise’s BSOL was the only ETF to record inflows that day, marking nonetheless the weakest day since its launch on October 28, 2025.

Here are the important facts to remember about this dynamic :

13 consecutive days of positive flows on Solana ETFs despite the price drop ;

$1.49 million inflows recorded on November 14, the lowest daily level since the launch of these products ;

$370 million in cumulative flows, for over $533 million in assets under management ;

Bitwise’s BSOL is to date the only ETF to have recorded positive flows on the last observation day.

This contrast is even more striking as other major crypto ETFs saw massive disengagement at the same time. Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $866 million, their second worst daily performance since launch, while Ethereum ETFs witnessed a $259.2 million evaporation of assets.

This differential raises questions. While the overall market seems in retreat, Solana benefits from a form of resilience or strategic anticipation from institutions. However, this dynamic has not prevented the price decline, proving that institutional interest alone is not enough to support an asset under technical pressure.

A technical collapse : the crypto price breaks a two-year uptrend
Despite this institutional momentum, the crypto price plunged to $142, the lowest since June 23, 2025, thus breaking several key technical supports.

The correction broke the 100-week moving average (100 SMA) as well as the multi-year uptrend started in January 2023. Thus, the price could now fall toward the critical $100 level, which corresponds to the 200-week moving average, considered the last major support level. The current area around $140 is described as a “key price zone identified on the daily chart”, a level offering little real support.

Moreover, indicators such as the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) reveal a low density of historical buyers below $140, limiting chances of an immediate technical rebound. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) has fallen to its lowest level since April, confirming a weakening of bullish momentum.

These technical elements reinforce the hypothesis of a further drop towards $126, or even the symbolic $100 threshold. A break below $150 could extend the decline to $126, then towards the strong support at $100.

This technical setup places Solana in a delicate situation. Despite clear institutional support, the current market weakness and the absence of immediate bullish catalysts weaken the asset. In the short term, if the identified support levels do not hold, a capitulation towards $100, while the crypto was targeting $1000, seems increasingly likely. In the medium term, everything will depend on the market’s ability to respond to negative technical signals or to find new momentum thanks to fresh fundamentals.

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Luc Jose A.

Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019.
Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.

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The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.

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Bitcoin has dropped below the $100,000 mark for the first time since May, igniting renewed anxiety across the crypto market. The flagship cryptocurrency is currently trading near $97,000, with traders and investors facing growing uncertainty amid persistent selling pressure and waning momentum. Fear levels have surged as many market participants begin to question whether this breakdown marks the start of a new bear market phase or simply a deeper correction within the ongoing cycle.

Some analysts warn that the recent loss of key psychological support could trigger further downside if buyers fail to defend lower levels. Historical patterns show that once BTC breaks below major round numbers, volatility tends to accelerate before finding a stable base.

However, others remain cautiously optimistic. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, noted that it is still too early to confirm a full-scale bear market. He argues that on-chain data — including exchange flows, miner behavior, and long-term holder activity — does not yet reflect the kind of structural weakness typically seen during cycle tops. Instead, he suggests that the market may be entering a prolonged consolidation phase, where volatility cools before Bitcoin prepares for its next directional move.

$94K Becomes the Line in the Sand for Bitcoin’s Bull Case
According to Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, the key level that could determine Bitcoin’s next major trend lies around $94,000. On-chain data shows that investors who entered the market between six to twelve months ago have an average cost basis near this level, meaning it represents a crucial psychological and structural support zone.

Bitcoin Realized Price UTXO Age Bands | Source: Ki Young Ju
Ju explains that while Bitcoin’s drop below $100,000 has triggered widespread concern, the market hasn’t yet confirmed a full-blown bear cycle. He notes that price action would need to sustain a breakdown below $94,000 before signaling a significant shift in sentiment and long-term trend structure. “Personally, I do not think the bear cycle is confirmed unless we lose that level,” Ju said, emphasizing the importance of patience amid heightened volatility.

He adds that overreacting to short-term fluctuations often leads to poor decision-making during periods of market stress. For now, the best course of action may be to wait rather than jump to conclusions. If $94,000 holds as support, it could serve as the foundation for a potential recovery. Conversely, a decisive breakdown below that threshold would mark a clear warning sign that the bull phase has likely ended.

Bitcoin Drops Below $100K, Testing Long-Term Support Levels
Bitcoin’s weekly chart paints a concerning picture as the cryptocurrency trades around $96,900, marking its first sustained move below the $100,000 level since May. The breakdown represents a 7.4% decline over the last week, with selling volume increasing significantly — a clear sign that market participants are de-risking amid fear and uncertainty.

BTC testing key demand level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
The most notable feature on the chart is Bitcoin’s test of the 50-week moving average (blue line), which currently sits near $95,000. Historically, this level has acted as a key support zone during mid-cycle corrections, helping to stabilize price before major recoveries. A confirmed weekly close below this moving average, however, could shift momentum firmly in favor of the bears, opening the door for a potential retest of the $88,000–$90,000 region near the 100-week MA (green line).

Despite the bearish tone, there’s also evidence of potential accumulation. Volume spikes during declines often indicate that larger players are stepping in to absorb selling pressure. If Bitcoin can hold above $95,000 and reclaim $100,000 in the coming weeks, it could form a solid base for recovery. Conversely, failure to defend this area would reinforce the narrative that the market is entering a deeper correction phase.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

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Sebastian's journey into the world of crypto began four years ago, driven by a fascination with the potential of blockchain technology to revolutionize financial systems. His initial exploration focused on understanding the intricacies of various crypto projects, particularly those focused on building innovative financial solutions. Through countless hours of research and learning, Sebastian developed a deep understanding of the underlying technologies, market dynamics, and potential applications of cryptocurrencies.
As his knowledge grew, Sebastian felt compelled to share his insights with others. He began actively contributing to online discussions on platforms like X and LinkedIn, focusing on fintech and crypto-related content. His goal was to expose valuable trends and insights to a wider audience, fostering a deeper understanding of the rapidly evolving crypto landscape. Sebastian's contributions quickly gained recognition, and he became a trusted voice in the online crypto community.
To further enhance his expertise, Sebastian pursued a UC Berkeley Fintech: Frameworks, Applications, and Strategies certification. This rigorous program equipped him with valuable skills and knowledge regarding Financial Technology, bridging the gap between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi). The certification deepened his understanding of the broader financial landscape and its intersection with blockchain technology.
Sebastian's passion for finance and writing is evident in his work. He enjoys delving into financial research, analyzing market trends, and exploring the latest developments in the crypto space. In his spare time, Sebastian can often be found immersed in charts, studying 10-K forms, or engaging in thought-provoking discussions about the future of finance.
Sebastian's journey as a crypto analyst and investor has been marked by a relentless pursuit of knowledge and a dedication to sharing his insights. His ability to navigate the complex world of crypto, combined with his passion for financial research and communication, makes him a valuable asset to the industry. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, Sebastian remains at the forefront, providing valuable insights and contributing to the growth of this revolutionary technology.

Journalist

Posted: November 15, 2025

Key takeaways
What triggered the recent decline in JUP’s price and TVL? 
A major investor sell-off led to $128 million in outflows and a sharp drop in total value locked.

Are there signs of a potential recovery for JUP? 
Yes, rising token holder income and liquidity clusters suggest a possible bullish reversal despite current pressure.

Jupiter [JUP] suffered a major setback, similar to other asset classes, as the total crypto market capitalization slipped to $3.2 trillion.

Market analysis suggests the 15% decline in JUP’s price and the growing bearish sentiment are not the only factors in play, as bullish indicators continue to surface.

Here’s a full breakdown.

Massive sell-off pushes JUP lower
JUP’s recent price drop was driven by a major sell-off from long-term investors.

According to DeFiLlama, the token saw outflows of approximately $128 million, causing its Total Value Locked (TVL) to fall to $2.92 billion, as of writing.

This sharp decline in TVL suggests that investors are losing confidence in the token’s long-term value and the benefits of staking assets in its pools.

Source: CoinGlass

The derivatives market faced similar pressure, as the Open Interest Weighted Funding Rate fell into negative territory at -0.0203%, according to available readings.

A sharp decline of this nature implies that sell contracts now dominate buy contracts within the same timeframe.

Sustained funding favoring sellers over buyers implies that JUP will continue to face downward pressure, similar to what would occur if investors unlock more of their assets.

Spot buying supports JUP
Quarterly data shows JUP’s Token Holder Net Income for the third quarter has already outperformed the first and second quarters.

At press time, total income for this group stood at $26.33 million, trailing only the third quarter’s $51.94 million.

The jump in holder income, just 45 days into the fourth quarter, suggests a strong possibility that investors who recently exited, contributing to the TVL decline, may consider re-entering in the long term.

Source: CoinGlass

In the spot market, trading activity shows retail investors taking advantage of the recent price drop.

CoinGlass data reports that roughly $312,000 was spent buying JUP. While minimal and indicative of caution, it also suggests investors may ramp up purchases once they confirm market sentiment has turned positive.

Bullish setup remains in place
The liquidation heatmap suggests a rally could still form in the market.

This expectation stems from the limited clusters of liquidity available, which could attract price movement in their direction, even if not on an extended scale.

Source: CoinGlass

From current levels, JUP may attempt an upward move on the chart, guided by several liquidity clusters.

The largest cluster lies near $0.35, though liquidity remains relatively thin at that level. Still, market structure indicates a strong tendency for JUP to attempt a move to the upside.

Tether is considering a major investment in Germany's Neura Robotics, exploring participation in a funding round worth as much as $1.16 billion.

Bitcoin is showing a bearish trading pattern even as its correlation with the Nasdaq remains exceptionally high, signaling a broader risk-asset shift that is putting pressure on the cryptocurrency market. According to fresh research from Wintermute, Bitcoin now behaves more like a high-beta extension of global equities, falling sharply when stocks decline but failing to rise at the same pace when equities recover.

Sierra Protocol has launched a new liquid yield token on the Avalanche network, designed to provide DeFi users with passive, risk-adjusted returns.