Market Signal Briefing

It is Friday, Feb. 13, and in today’s top stories XRP gains stronger exchange depth with a new Binance listing, Bitcoin Cash extends its dominance among the top 10 tokens amid a revived “Bitcoin without Saylor” narrative and Charles Hoskinson outlines values-based criteria as Cardano’s privacy chain, Midnight, enters the final launch stage.

TL;DR

Binance opens XRP/U spot trading, adding the United Stables liquidity layer.Bitcoin Cash holds a $10.55 billion market cap and sustains its top 10 ranking.Hoskinson calls for ethics-driven blockchain development as Cardano ecosystem prepares Midnight launch.Binance expands stablecoin options for XRP with XRP/U pair listingAccording to a new X post, Binance launched a new XRP/U trading pair, introducing United Stables (U) as a new liquidity layer for XRP. 

HOT Stories

Binance remains one of the largest spot markets for XRP, according to CoinMarketCap data, with the XRP/USDT pair generating $154,548,191 in recent 24-hour volume. Even the USDC pair there worth $52,776,085 in daily volume is more than most other exchanges have in main USDT or USD pairs. 

It is an interesting detail that Korean crypto exchanges like Upbit and Bithumb have the equivalent of $185,369,440 and $154,892,350, respectively, for XRP/KRW pairs." 

United Stables (U), listed on Binance in January 2026, is a meta-stablecoin backed by a reserve model accepting USDT, USDC and USD1. As the first native stablecoin on BNB Chain using a multiasset reserve structure, it aims to standardize settlement and liquidity flows across DeFi, CEXes and payments rails. 

XRP’s integration into the U trading pair lineup reflects increasing focus on stablecoin-agnostic trading and cross-reserve fungibility.

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Bitcoin Cash solidifies top 10 status as "Bitcoin without Saylor" narrative gains steamWhile Binance continues to expand the market share for XRP and U, Bitcoin Cash, in its own lane, is holding a position in the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on CoinMarketCap, with a figure of $10,553,475,202 at the time of writing. After a breakthrough earlier this year and dethroning Cardano (ADA), BCH’s presence in the top 10 has drawn renewed attention to this once-forgotten Bitcoin fork. 

Now that its top 10 status appears sustainable, public figures like “thedefivillain” have labeled it “Bitcoin without Saylor” in an attempt to frame its relative strength within a broader narrative.

Source: CoinMarketCapIf that is an expression of the opinion that Saylor and the Bitcoin Standard he implemented at Strategy are toxic to Bitcoin, or an attempt to explain why Bitcoin Cash may be superior to its original counterpart is open for debate. One could say that both of these explanations have a right to life. The fact is, the crypto community seems open to finding an idea within the digital assets space that will not have such a heavy entity tied to it. 

It is no surprise really, considering that Bitcoin's success was mostly attributed to the disappearance of its creator, known as Satoshi Nakamoto, and with Saylor absorbing 3.4% supply of the cryptocurrency and being the main topic of almost all discussions around BTC, this may spoil the appeal for some. 

All things considered, some may attribute the resilience of Bitcoin Cash to its wide presence in the online casino and gaming sectors. Others may argue that its strength comes from mining being more profitable than Bitcoin. Another group of people may call it "Bitcoin without Saylor." The truth, one may argue, lies in the price chart, while narratives and news tend to be constructed afterward.

Hoskinson defines "anti-cynicism" criteria as Cardano's Midnight prepares March launchXRP and BCH stories aside, Charles Hoskinson used social media this Friday to talk about a values-driven framework for development as the Cardano creator seems to be tired of "pay to play." For him, meaningful work should not rely on such structures and should focus on building fundamentally good and hopeful systems. These thoughts of Hoskinson's appear to be a reaction to a "lot of cynicism" and a lack of empathy in the crypto industry.

Beyond all the talk, there are real steps being taken to make that happen. Previously this week, Hoskinson confirmed that Midnight, a blockchain focused on privacy and built on Cardano, will launch in the last week of March 2026.

NIGHT/USD by TradingViewMidnight's architecture is all about making sure transactions are private by default, and it only discloses the information it needs to through something called zero-knowledge proofs. The goal is to find a middle ground between privacy and compliance, avoiding the simple choice of privacy vs. compliance.

So, the "anti-cynicism" approach lines up with real-world action, like privacy infrastructure, simulation tools, cross-chain expansion and ecosystem integration. Whether this approach will lead to capital inflows depends on how well it is adopted after launch, not just on the overall Cardano ecosystem's position on the matter.

Crypto market outlook: Key levels to watch for BTC, ADA, XRPThis week’s price action was driven mostly by macro data, with NFP and CPI releases setting the tone across risk assets, and digital ones especially. Crypto responded with brutal sell-offs, random pumps, extreme fear and more uncertainty. 

Though the infrastructure and environment around the digital assets market continues to evolve, with new CFTC assembling 35 key figures of the market for a new advisory panel.

Key levels to watch:

Bitcoin (BTC): BTC is trading near $67,069 after rebounding from a washout to $60,000. Immediate resistance now sits around $72,000. On the downside, $64,000 acts as short-term support, while a loss of that level would reopen downside risk toward the $60,000 liquidity pocket. 

XRP: XRP is currently trading near $1.365 on the daily time frame. After the early February capitulation wick toward the $1.10-$1.15 zone, the price rebounded but remained structurally below prior consolidation ranges. Immediate resistance is now located at $1.50. On the downside, $1.30-$1.32 serves as short-term support. A loss of that area reopens risk toward the February low near $1.10.

Cardano (ADA): ADA is currently trading near $0.2627 after prolonged downside pressure. Immediate resistance is located at $0.30, followed by a broader supply zone near $0.35. On the downside, $0.25 is the key structural support. A decisive reclamation of $0.30 would signal short-term recovery potential ahead of the late-March Midnight launch, while continued compression below that threshold keeps momentum neutral to weak.

Overall, Bitcoin remains the directional anchor. As long as BTC holds above $64,000, altcoin stabilization remains possible. A breakdown below that level would likely pressure the ADA and XRP support zones in tandem.

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As most of the crypto market retests crucial levels, Ethereum (ETH) is attempting to reclaim a major horizontal area. Some market observers have warned that cryptocurrency could fall to new lows if the price doesn’t bounce soon.

Ethereum Weekly Close On Sight On Thursday, Ethereum dropped 1.4% to retest a key area for the second consecutive day. After hitting a 10-month low of $1,747, the King of Altcoins bounced more than 15% to trade between $2,000 and $2,150 over the past few days.

However, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap failed to hold the crucial $2,000 horizontal barrier on Wednesday and tested the $1,900 mark for the first time in a week.

After attempting to reclaim the key psychological level in the early hours of Thursday, Ethereum was rejected toward the recent lows, briefly falling below it. Analyst Ted Pillows highlighted the importance of ETH’s current zone, as it has previously triggered major moves.

To him, if the altcoin fails to reclaim the $2,000 area in the coming days, a full retrace toward the recent lows should be expected soon. Similarly, market observer Crypto Busy noted that the cryptocurrency is currently trading above a major long-term support.

According to the post, the recent correction has sent Ethereum toward a three-year rising support line, which “will decide the next big move.” The analyst warned that “If the trendline breaks with strong weekly closes below $1,900, the structure weakens.”

Therefore, ETH must hold its current levels in the coming days to avoid a weekly close below this level. Otherwise, its price could drop “into the next liquidity pockets around $1,600 and possibly $1,300, where the next historical support zones exist.”

Is ETH’s ‘Real’ Bull Market Two Years Away? Trader AlejandroXBT shared a potential macro-outlook for Ethereum that suggests the cryptocurrency could still see another major shakeout:

My thesis is that the major bullish move that began around 2019–2020 has transitioned into a large and prolonged macro correction, and that Ethereum has been consolidating within this broader corrective structure ever since.

He outlined four phases for the macro structure: the pump, the correction, the shakeout, and the moon. The initial phase, which occurred between 2019 and 2021, marked “the true impulsive bullish move,” with strong trend expansion and increasing momentum.

ETH macro structure breakdown. Source: AlejandroXBT on X According to the market observer, the strong rally that followed the 2022 bear market appears to be a “counter-trend move within a broader corrective range” rather than a renewed bull market and the start of a new long-term cycle.

As he explained, ETH’s range-bound behavior signals distribution and consolidation instead of continuation. “From this perspective, the apparent bull market that developed within the correction can be interpreted as a dead cat bounce, a technically strong bounce occurring inside a larger corrective structure,” he affirmed.

Therefore, the current macro structure would suggest that a final shakeout phase could “still be required to fully reset sentiment and liquidity before Ethereum can transition into a new impulsive bullish cycle.”

Based on this, the trader anticipated a final liquidity-driven move to the downside in the coming months, followed by “the moon” phase, potentially next year, when “the structure suggests the conditions for a true long-term bullish continuation, with price discovery and expansion well beyond previous highs.”

Ethereum’s performance in the one-week chart. Source: ETHUSDT on TradingView Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

Shiba Inu price remains under pressure inside a descending channel, with resistance at $0.0000062 and support near $0.0000057.

Newton Gitonga2 min read

13 February 2026, 02:02 PM

Shiba Inu remains under pressure as a consistent pattern of lower highs continues to dictate its short-term price action. The token recently bounced above the $0.000006 level but failed to sustain momentum. Analysts warn that SHIB’s structure remains bearish, with further downside likely unless key resistance levels are reclaimed. Broader financial market declines have added to selling pressure, limiting the cryptocurrency’s recovery potential.

SHIB Descending Channel Restrains Price ActionVeteran trader GainMuse highlighted that Shiba Inu is trading inside a descending channel, reinforcing the bearish trend. “The repeated formation of lower highs reflects the market’s inability to sustain upside momentum,” the analyst said. SHIB recently rallied from $0.0000055 to around $0.0000064, but the rebound stalled at local resistance. GainMuse warned that if momentum fades, SHIB could drop toward the lower boundary of the channel, with immediate support near $0.0000057.

Resistance remains critical at $0.0000062. GainMuse noted that as long as SHIB trades below this level, downside risks persist. A breakdown below support could accelerate losses, potentially pushing the token toward $0.000005, which it touched during last week’s market sell-off. Analysts observe that the current pattern demonstrates persistent selling pressure and a lack of bullish control.

Market Sell-Off Adds PressureShiba Inu’s recent struggles coincided with broader financial market declines. The global markets lost approximately $3.6 trillion in two hours, with the cryptocurrency sector shedding around $70 billion. Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, absorbed much of the losses, yet SHIB also declined to $0.000005939 before rebounding slightly above $0.000006.

Analysts suggest that the bearish trend will remain until SHIB breaks above the descending trendline. Sustained momentum above $0.0000062 could signal a short-term trend shift and reduce downside risk. For now, Shiba Inu continues to face technical pressure, with its price confined by resistance and channel boundaries that define the current market structure.

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Newton Gitonga covers cryptocurrencies, blockchain, and digital finance. He specializes in breaking down complex trends with clear, data-driven reporting. His work focuses on market analysis, technical insights, and the evolving role of altcoins in shaping global markets.

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Latest Shiba Inu News Today (SHIB)

TLDR XRP ETFs saw a daily outflow of $6.42 million, with cumulative inflows at $1.22 billion. XRPC ETF reported a $1.44M net inflow, but its market price declined by 2.25%. XRP ETF experienced a daily drop of 2.20% and a $303.92K net inflow. XRPZ ETF saw a 2.00% drop in market price, with $737.47K in daily inflows. The GXRP ETF recorded an $8.91M outflow, with a 2.24% drop in market price. As of February 12, the daily total net inflow for XRP ETFs recorded a loss of $6.42 million. According to SoSoValue, the cumulative total net inflow remains positive at $1.22 billion. The total value traded stands at $12.52 million, showing a relatively low trading volume for the day. Total net assets for the XRP ETFs are valued at $970.66 million, representing 1.18% of the XRP market cap.

XRPC, XRPZ, and XRP ETFs Record Inflows Among individual XRP ETFs, the XRPC ETF, listed on NASDAQ and sponsored by Canary, saw a slight 0.61% decline. It reported a 1-day net inflow of $1.44 million and a cumulative net inflow of $412.60 million. The ETF’s net assets stand at $259.50 million, with an XRP share of 0.32%. Its market price is $14.36, showing a 2.25% daily decline.

Source: SoSoValue (XRP ETFs) The XRP ETF, listed on the NYSE and sponsored by Bitwise, experienced a daily decrease of 2.20%. It saw a daily net inflow of $303.92 thousand and has a cumulative net inflow of $359.29 million. Its net assets stand at $247.85 million, representing 0.30% of XRP’s market share. The market price dropped to $15.13.

The XRPZ ETF, listed on the NYSE and sponsored by Franklin, experienced a 0.40% drop in value. It reported a daily inflow of $737.47 thousand with a cumulative net inflow of $326.80 million. Its net assets stand at $221.98 million, accounting for 0.27% of XRP’s market share. The ETF’s market price fell by 2.00% to $14.69.

GXRP Losses $8.91 as TOXR ETF Holds Stable The TOXR ETF, listed on the CBOE and sponsored by 21Shares, saw a daily decline of 2.23%, with no changes in its flow for the day. It has net assets totaling $166.91 million, holding 0.20% of XRP’s market share.

Lastly, the GXRP ETF, listed on the NYSE and sponsored by Grayscale, recorded a 2.24% drop, with a daily net outflow of $8.91 million. This XRP ETF has net assets of $74.43 million, representing 0.09% of the XRP market. Its market price decreased to $26.18.

In a recent tweet, XRP Ledger developer Wietse Wind shared a peculiar incident about an XRPL user with $200,000 XRP who was locked out of his account after unknowingly creating a "nested Multi Sign" setup.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH), up 5.3% from Thursday, joined Uniswap (UNI) as a top performer.

Pi price climbed double‑digits on Friday as the network’s long‑running experiment in “mobile‑first” crypto collides with hard mainnet deadlines and bruised holders looking for a bottom.

Summary

Pi price trades near $0.152 on TradingView’s PI3USD pair, up roughly 12% on the day but still more than 60% below six‑month levels and about 50% under its $2.99 peak.​ The Pi Core Team set a Feb. 15 deadline for mandatory node upgrades, with CoinMarketCal and Coinpedia framing the push as a key attempt to stabilize the ecosystem after last year’s collapse.​ Analysts remain divided, with some calling Pi’s latest move a short‑covering bounce in a clear downtrend and others seeing post‑capitulation consolidation that could signal a potential bottom.​ Pi (PI) price has jumped around 12% from recent lows as the Feb. 15 mainnet node upgrade deadline approaches, with traders debating whether this is short‑covering or a real bottom.

Pi price action and network stress Pi price changed hands near $0.152 on TradingView’s CRYPTO:PI3USD pair at midday in Europe, up about 12.15% on the session after a brutal drawdown that has left the token more than 60% lower over six months and roughly 50% below its all‑time high near $2.99. The move comes as the Pi Core Team pushes a Feb. 15 cut‑off for mandatory node upgrades, with CoinMarketCal flagging the deadline as a key on‑chain event for operators. Coinpedia framed the rush bluntly, saying the core team has “set Feb 15 deadline for mainnet node upgrade” as part of efforts to stabilize the ecosystem after last year’s collapse.

Today was a bit unusual, a sudden surge in Pi coin price 💹. For me, whether Pi is rising or falling now 📉 or 📈, I'm always adding to my position because I believe that in the next few years, it will dazzle many people 👀 and skyrocket in price, with enormous potential… pic.twitter.com/uDadbNOp0z

— PiNetwork DEX⚡️阿龙 (@fen_leng) February 13, 2026 Traders remain split on whether the latest Pi price bounce is anything more than short‑covering into a crowded downtrend. One recent TradingView idea described PI3USD as “in a clear multi‑day downtrend, with successive lower highs and lower lows,” warning that “until $0.535 is reclaimed convincingly, short setups dominate.” Another analyst argued that after a 95% peak‑to‑trough collapse, Pi “has experienced…steady sideways consolidation” typical of post‑capitulation accumulation phases, with a “potential bottom…forming” as exhausted sellers step aside.

Macro backdrop and majors The backdrop for Pi price is a softer but still elevated digital asset complex. Bitcoin (BTC) trades around $66,306, with a 24‑hour range roughly between $65,243 and $68,309 and turnover near $48.4B as traders digest the expiry of about $2.5B in BTC options highlighted by crypto.news market coverage. Ethereum (ETH) changes hands close to $1,949, with 24‑hour lows near $1,902 and highs just under $1,997 on volumes of about $16.9B, leaving the asset down less than 1% on the day. Solana (SOL) trades near $78.24, roughly 1.3% lower over the last 24 hours and down about 60% versus a year ago, according to YCharts data sourced from CoinGecko and CryptoCompare.

For now, Pi price is attempting a fragile recovery in a market still dominated by Bitcoin’s options calendar and macro risk appetite. Whether the node‑upgrade deadline turns into a genuine inflection or just another sell‑the‑news event will be decided on‑chain over the coming sessions.

Aave Labs plans to route 100% of product revenue to the DAO. The move links Aave’s future growth to the V4 upgrade and institutional expansion. Aave Labs has introduced the new governance proposal called “Aave Will Win,” which would send 100% of revenue generated through Aave-branded products directly to the community treasury, which is controlled by the Aave DAO. If approved, then any income generated by the Aave Labs through Aave products will no longer stay in the company and will flow to the DAO, where the token holders will decide how the funds can be used. 

What does this new governance proposal bring? Currently, Aave primarily earns from borrowing and lending on the protocol; however, under the new proposal, the product’s profits would benefit token holders. Stani Kulechov, founder of Aave, says this structure makes Aave more competitive as financial institutions enter DeFi increasingly. This move strengthens DAO control and ties growth directly to the token holders, which also reduces concerns about centralization.

This proposal comes after the huge internal debate in the community during late 2025 on who should control the branding rights, websites, trademarks, and social media. Some of the members felt that too much power remained with the Aave Labs. The new plan attempts to resolve this issue by hard-coding the revenue alignment. 

Aave V4 role  Aave V4 is one of the upcoming major software updates, which is designed to launch new financial markets and support institutional products, which allows specialized risk models. This makes Aave more flexible while keeping security strong. This proposal allows Aave to create different polls and different risk levels with different revenue setups, which enables the independent market without impacting retail users. 

Basically, DAOs cannot legally own intellectual property, so the plan suggests forming a separate foundation to hold trademarks and to manage legal responsibilities. After this announcement of the new proposal, the Aave token price rose slightly, even during the weaker market. If the community approves, more votes will define the V4 activation and funding structures.

Highlighted Crypto News:

Buck Raises Core Token Yield to 10% with Automatic Wallet Payouts     

The broader cryptocurrency market is having a mixed performance on Friday, with most leading cryptocurrencies currently in the red.

However, POL, the native coin of the Polygon blockchain, is one of the best performers in the market.

It has added 3.5% to its value over the last 24 hours and could be set for a breakout above the $0.10 psychological level in the near term.

The technical indicators suggest that POL could be getting ready for a rally amid improved sentiment in the market. 

Polygon Foundation proposes the Agentic Commerce Gas Program Copy link to section

POL is one of the best performers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap and is now approaching the $0.10 mark. 

The bullish performance comes as the Polygon Foundation continues to roll out proposals to boost Polygon’s position as a leading agentic blockchain. 

On Thursday, the Polygon Foundation informed its community that it had submitted the PIP-82: Agentic Commerce Gas Program proposal. 

PIP-82: Agentic Commerce Gas Program This proposal calls for recycling up to $1M in gas base fees to promote Agentic Commerce transactions (using PIP-65). All non-recycled POL will be burned. See the PIP: forum.polygon.technology/t/pip-82-agent…

This proposal calls for recycling up to $1M in gas-based fees to promote Agentic Commerce transactions (using PIP-65). All non-recycled POL will be burned.

According to the team, this program will operate until the $1M is fully recycled or December 31, 2026, whichever comes first. 

The program may also be edited or terminated by this PIP being superseded by another PIP approved by Polygon Governance.

POL will be valued at the prevailing market rate at the time of the recycling transaction, and that amount will be subtracted from the $1M allowance.

POL eyes recovery above its 20-day EMA Copy link to section

The POL/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and inefficient, with the efficiency level around $0.1041. The token is currently down nearly 50% from its yearly peak of $0.184 on January 11.

Despite POL’s bearish performance, Polygon’s TVL has held steady above $1 billion over the last 30 days. This suggests that capital isn’t leading the blockchain. 

According to Santiment data, loss realization also surged over the past week, hitting $40 million.

If the recovery continues, POL could rally towards the 20-day EMA at $0.1041, allowing it to gain efficiency in the 4-hour chart. This would ensure that the short-term trend remains bullish.

The RSI is at 55, above the neutral level, indicating that the bulls are regaining control. For POL to surpass the $0.1041 resistance level, the RSI will need to head into the overbought region. 

The MACD lines are also converging above the neutral zone, adding further bullish confluence. Immediate resistance aligns at at $0.168 if the bullish trend continues. 

A break above the $0.168 resistance level could pave the way toward the next barrier at $0.212.

However, if the bullish recovery fails, POL could decline towards the last major support level at $0.088.

After a sharp sell-off that forced the price into an obviously bearish structure, XRP is still attempting to find stable ground. According to the chart, XRP is still trading inside a larger declining channel and is below important moving averages that are sloping downward.

Pi coin price climbed double‑digits on Friday as the network’s long‑running experiment in “mobile‑first” crypto collides with hard mainnet deadlines and bruised holders looking for a bottom.

Summary

Pi price trades near $0.152 on TradingView’s PI3USD pair, up roughly 12% on the day but still more than 60% below six‑month levels and about 50% under its $2.99 peak.​ The Pi Core Team set a Feb. 15 deadline for mandatory node upgrades, with CoinMarketCal and Coinpedia framing the push as a key attempt to stabilize the ecosystem after last year’s collapse.​ Analysts remain divided, with some calling Pi’s latest move a short‑covering bounce in a clear downtrend and others seeing post‑capitulation consolidation that could signal a potential bottom.​ Pi coin (PI) price has jumped around 12% from recent lows as the Feb. 15 mainnet node upgrade deadline approaches, with traders debating whether this is short‑covering or a real bottom.

Pi coin price action and network stress Pi price changed hands near $0.152 on TradingView’s CRYPTO:PI3USD pair at midday in Europe, up about 12.15% on the session after a brutal drawdown that has left the token more than 60% lower over six months and roughly 50% below its all‑time high near $2.99. The move comes as the Pi Core Team pushes a Feb. 15 cut‑off for mandatory node upgrades, with CoinMarketCal flagging the deadline as a key on‑chain event for operators. Coinpedia framed the rush bluntly, saying the core team has “set Feb 15 deadline for mainnet node upgrade” as part of efforts to stabilize the ecosystem after last year’s collapse.

Today was a bit unusual, a sudden surge in Pi coin price 💹. For me, whether Pi is rising or falling now 📉 or 📈, I'm always adding to my position because I believe that in the next few years, it will dazzle many people 👀 and skyrocket in price, with enormous potential… pic.twitter.com/uDadbNOp0z

— PiNetwork DEX⚡️阿龙 (@fen_leng) February 13, 2026 Traders remain split on whether the latest Pi price bounce is anything more than short‑covering into a crowded downtrend. One recent TradingView idea described PI3USD as “in a clear multi‑day downtrend, with successive lower highs and lower lows,” warning that “until $0.535 is reclaimed convincingly, short setups dominate.” Another analyst argued that after a 95% peak‑to‑trough collapse, Pi “has experienced…steady sideways consolidation” typical of post‑capitulation accumulation phases, with a “potential bottom…forming” as exhausted sellers step aside.

Macro backdrop and majors The backdrop for Pi price is a softer but still elevated digital asset complex. Bitcoin (BTC) trades around $66,306, with a 24‑hour range roughly between $65,243 and $68,309 and turnover near $48.4B as traders digest the expiry of about $2.5B in BTC options highlighted by crypto.news market coverage. Ethereum (ETH) changes hands close to $1,949, with 24‑hour lows near $1,902 and highs just under $1,997 on volumes of about $16.9B, leaving the asset down less than 1% on the day. Solana (SOL) trades near $78.24, roughly 1.3% lower over the last 24 hours and down about 60% versus a year ago, according to YCharts data sourced from CoinGecko and CryptoCompare.

For now, Pi price is attempting a fragile recovery in a market still dominated by Bitcoin’s options calendar and macro risk appetite. Whether the node‑upgrade deadline turns into a genuine inflection or just another sell‑the‑news event will be decided on‑chain over the coming sessions.

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Bitcoin price has fallen 1.41% to $66,946 over the past 24 hours, following a bearish market trend. The larger cryptocurrency market also declined by 1.59%, with the market value at 2.29 trillion. This fall is largely influenced by macroeconomic factors that affect selling pressure.

Bitcoin is nearing an important support of about $65,000. In the meantime, gold and silver have had minor losses following a recent correction.  As the market adjusts, the Bitcoin price remains corrective, moving within a larger rising channel.

Market Panic: Gold and Silver Lose Over $3.6 Trillion Over $3.6 trillion was wiped off the market in just 90 minutes, as gold and silver saw declines. Gold fell 3.76, wiping almost 1.34 trillion off its market cap, and silver declined 8.5%, losing $400 billion. S&P 500 was not left behind, falling by 1%, to $620 billion.

The sell-off highlights an increased lack of confidence in various segments, including metals, stocks, crypto, and real estate. Critical risks are fueling the turmoil; the major issue is the impending government shutdown. 

The U.S. Congress is at a standoff with time-sensitive funding expiries looming, causing fears of freeze in spending, postponing economic data, and increasing uncertainty among investors.

🚨MASSIVE CRASH IN THE MARKET.

Over $3.6 Trillion wiped out in 90 MINUTES.

Gold is down 3.76% and has wiped out nearly $1.34 trillion from its market cap.

Silver has dumped 8.5% and erased $400 billion from its market cap.

The S&P 500 has fallen 1% and erased $620 billion.… pic.twitter.com/yeqoLbAuNT

— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) February 12, 2026

Even inflation is proving stable, with rate cuts being continually postponed, and the market lacking a definite Federal Reserve backstop. All these factors are contributing to panic.

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs Face Outflows Amid Market Volatility On February 12, Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced a significant outflow, totaling $410 million. No inflows occurred on the 12 Bitcoin ETFs in the day. Likewise, Ethereum spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of $113 million, with no inflows in all nine Ethereum ETFs.

On February 12 (ET), Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a total net outflow of $410 million, with none of the 12 ETFs posting a net inflow. Ethereum spot ETFs had a total net outflow of $113 million, with all nine ETFs showing no net inflows. https://t.co/Hj2Gs49bWa pic.twitter.com/OWYeaSv3Hn

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) February 13, 2026

The recent statistics also indicated that the total assets of Bitcoin ETFs were 82.86 billion. This trend implies that investors remain cautious, which is a risk-averse mood in the wider cryptocurrency market in spite of high asset ratings.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: How Low Can BTC Go? The BTC price dropped to $66,953 after a significant pullback earlier in February. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is 44, indicating BTC is not overbought or oversold.

Nevertheless, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) stays negative, which means that the bearish momentum is stronger at the point.

The first target to watch is the immediate resistance at $68,000. If the future Bitcoin outlook manages to break above this level, it could signal a potential upward move toward the short-term target of $70,000.

Source: BTC/USDT 4-hour chart: Tradingview On the negative side, there is an estimated support of about $65,000. In case of falling below this price, Bitcoin can also test the long-term support of about $60,000. A shift towards $60,000 would mean that the market will have even more pressure on the bear side.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) A combination of fears surrounding a government shutdown, inflation, and ongoing economic uncertainty led to massive sell-offs.

Bitcoin ETFs faced a $410 million outflow, reflecting caution among investors amid market volatility and broader economic concerns.

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Bitcoin’s quantum-security discussion just gained a concrete new artifact in the code-and-spec pipeline: an updated draft of BIP-360 has been merged into the official Bitcoin Improvement Proposals repository, proposing a Taproot-adjacent output type designed to limit exposure to future quantum key-recovery attacks.

The change matters less because it “solves” quantum risk today, and more because it formalizes a specific, opt-in path that preserves Taproot’s script-tree functionality while removing the spending route considered most problematic under a quantum-threat model.

Bitcoin Devs Make First Formal Quantum-Resistance Move Anduro, a research-focused platform incubated by Marathon Digital (MARA), said on X that the merged update “introduces Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR), a proposed new output type that omits Taproot’s quantum-vulnerable key-path spend while preserving compatibility with Tapscript and script trees.”

In BIP terms, the proposal is scoped as “Consensus (soft fork)” and defines P2MR as a new SegWit v2 output that commits directly to the Merkle root of a script tree, rather than to a tweaked public key as in Pay-to-Taproot (P2TR). The practical implication is straightforward: P2MR outputs can only be spent via script-path logic; the key-path spend is removed entirely.

The BIP’s abstract frames the goal in terms of minimizing changes while providing an option set for users who want additional protection:

“This document proposes a new output type: Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR), via a soft fork. P2MR outputs operate with nearly the same functionality as P2TR (Pay-to-Taproot) outputs, but with the key path spend removed.”
It adds that the intended protection is against “long exposure attacks by Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computers (CRQCs),” as well as “future cryptanalytic approaches that may compromise the elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) used by Bitcoin.”

A key element of the BIP is definitional discipline: it distinguishes “long exposure” attacks (where public keys are available on-chain for extended periods) from “short exposure” attacks, which would target public keys revealed briefly in the mempool during an unconfirmed spend.

The document is explicit that P2MR is not a complete quantum shield. “It is worth noting that proposed P2MR outputs are only resistant to ‘long exposure attacks’ on elliptic curve cryptography; that is, attacks on keys exposed for time periods longer than needed to confirm a spending transaction,” the BIP states.

“Protection against more sophisticated quantum attacks, including protection against private key recovery from public keys exposed in the mempool while a transaction is waiting to be confirmed (a.k.a. ‘short exposure attacks’), may require the introduction of post-quantum signatures in Bitcoin.” The authors add they “intend to offer a separate proposal for this purpose upon further research.”

That split is also why the proposal emphasizes tapscript compatibility. It positions P2MR as a script-tree output type that could, if Bitcoin ever adopts post-quantum signature opcodes, provide a cleaner upgrade runway than older script mechanisms that don’t support tapscript’s evolution path.

Anduro highlighted that the change is designed as a soft fork and “does not affect existing Taproot outputs.” P2MR would be a new output type (with bech32m addresses starting with bc1z) rather than a retrofit of existing bc1p Taproot UTXOs.

The proposal also doesn’t pretend the swap is free. By removing key-path spends, P2MR gives up Taproot’s most compact witness path (a single Schnorr signature). The BIP estimates that a minimal P2MR spend witness is 37 bytes larger than a Taproot key-path spend, though it can be smaller than an equivalent Taproot script-path spend because P2MR’s control block omits an internal public key.

Privacy shifts too. Because every spend is script-path, P2MR users necessarily reveal they are spending from a script tree—something Taproot key-path spends can avoid signaling.

Anduro said the update also “addresses criticism about Bitcoin devs not taking the quantum threat seriously,” and noted the addition of Isabel Foxen Duke as co-author to make the BIP clearer “to the general public, not just the Bitcoin developer community.”

BIP-360 remains in “Draft” status. But its merge into the canonical repository is still a meaningful process marker: it moves the quantum-safety conversation from abstract worry and mailing-list hypotheticals toward a specific consensus change proposal that wallets, libraries, and reviewers can now analyze line-by-line.

If the debate has a next phase, it’s likely to center on whether “prepared not scared” opt-ins like P2MR are sufficient groundwork or whether Bitcoin will eventually need to grapple directly with post-quantum signatures and the operational realities of migrating value at scale.

At press time, BTC traded at $66,558.

Bitcoin must reclaim the 200-week EMA, 1-week chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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The official Dogecoin X account shared a fun fact about the biggest dog cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Dogecoin (DOGE).

The official Dogecoin X account brings attention to the fact that five billion DOGE are minted every year, which keeps Dogecoin's inflation rate declining. It highlights the implication of this: "More DOGE means less hoarding and more spending. Money is for moving, not collecting like rare Pokemon cards."

Fun fact: 5 billion DOGE are minted every year which keeps the inflation rate declining. More DOGE means less hoarding and more spending. Money is for moving, not collecting like rare Pokemon cards.

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— Dogecoin (@dogecoin) February 12, 2026 Dogecoin has a diminished inflation rate as it has a fixed yearly issuance of five billion coins. This annual issuance is needed to pay miners and keep the network secure. The implication of this is that each year, the rate of inflation drops compared to the total supply. Developers say this feature makes Dogecoin the perfect candidate to be used as a currency.

Dogecoin is not meant to be hoarded, as hoarding is a major barrier to a cryptocurrency being used as an actual currency. This set path implies that there is no need for Dogecoin burning, unlike other cryptocurrencies.

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Dogecoin’s supply is also not unlimited, as it has an absolute limit of issuance per block, per day, per year. The only difference between Dogecoin’s issuance and other coins is that it does not have an end date. Therefore, Dogecoin is only "infinite" over "infinite time." Over a finite time, its issuance remains finite. Developers believe that putting a cap on Dogecoin would render the network insecure and vulnerable to attacks.

Dogecoin priceDogecoin reversed a five-day drop after reaching a low of $0.087 on Feb. 11.  However, the rebound has failed to reach $0.10, with Dogecoin remaining in the $0.09 range.

At the time of writing, Dogecoin was up 0.87% in the last 24 hours to $0.093 and up 3.37% weekly.

If Dogecoin returns above $0.10 from which it turned down on Feb. 6, it might suggest that the bearish momentum is weakening. Dogecoin may then jump toward the barrier at $0.122, which coincides with the daily MA 50.

Alternatively, if the price continues lower, it might drop to the $0.08 level, which is likely to attract buyers. If Dogecoin breaks below $0.08, it might signal the start of fresh selling, and it might fall to $0.06 next.

Bitcoin’s latest bout of selling has a different feel.

Instead of the usual crypto stress signals, panic from small investors, a wave of forced liquidations, or miners dumping coins to pay bills, this time the pressure looks more like portfolio housekeeping by institutions.

As US rate expectations swing and cross‑asset volatility climbs, professional allocators are cutting risk broadly.

In this scenario, Bitcoin is being treated less like a stand‑alone “crypto story” and more like a macro trade that gets trimmed when markets turn defensive.

Institutional de-risking, not retail panic Copy link to section

Several analysts argue that the “unexpected source” of selling is institutional de‑risking.

Markus Thielen of 10x Research has repeatedly pointed to the same setup: higher real yields and sticky inflation reduce the appeal of non‑yielding assets like Bitcoin.

He added that when funds need to lower risk, they sell what they can sell quickly.

In that framework, Bitcoin isn’t being rejected, it’s being managed: cut as part of a broader risk budget when bonds suddenly look more attractive or when equities wobble.

You can see echoes of that in flows data.

CoinShares’ weekly report for Feb. 2 showed digital asset products suffered $1.7 billion of outflows, with sentiment “broadly negative” and outflows led by Bitcoin and Ethereum.

CoinShares’ report described the move as a deterioration in investor sentiment that flipped year-to-date flows negative and reduced assets under management sharply from prior highs.

That matters because the selling from ETFs and institutional vehicles can be mechanical: redemptions force a fund to sell, regardless of whether “crypto Twitter” feels bullish or bearish that day.​

This is also why the pressure can feel persistent.

Retail capitulation often burns hot and fast. Institutional risk-control selling tends to come in waves as managers rebalance, reduce leverage, and meet internal limits.

Read More: Bitcoin stuck near $66K, XRP below $1.40: analysts expect more pain ahead

Why macro signals now matter more than Bitcoin headlines Copy link to section

Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick has been explicit that Bitcoin’s macro sensitivity is back.

In a note cited by multiple outlets, Kendrick warned Bitcoin could test $50,000 before stabilizing, and the bank cut its year‑end 2026 forecast to $100,000 from $150,000.

The bank linked the downgrade to worsening macro conditions, weaker risk appetite, ETF outflows, and fading hopes for near‑term Fed cuts.

Bloomberg also framed the move as an “orderly” decline that looks more like cross‑asset repositioning than a disorderly leverage blow‑up.

CoinShares’ James Butterfill has likewise tied outflows to macro expectations.

In a widely cited CoinShares-based write‑up, Butterfill described large weekly redemptions as being fueled by diminishing hopes for interest rate reductions, adverse price trends, and frustration that digital assets have not benefited from the broader “debasement trade.”

That’s the macro feedback loop in plain terms: if investors think rates stay higher for longer, they cut exposure to assets that rely on liquidity and risk appetite, which include Bitcoin.

BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, looks set to offload more Bitcoin and Ethereum, following the outflows from its crypto ETFs yesterday. This move comes ahead of another potential partial U.S. government shutdown that could begin tomorrow as today's deadline looms.

Journalist

Posted: February 13, 2026

The Ethereum [ETH] exchange balance continued to dwindle, showing smart market participants were accumulating the altcoin. Since the 11th of February, 100k ETH has been removed from exchanges, AMBCrypto reported.

Crypto analyst and trader Ali Martinez showed that 330,000k ETH, worth over $660 million, were withdrawn from exchanges. This reinforced the holder accumulation idea.

The Ethereum validator entry queue has a 71-day waiting period. Nearly 4.1 million ETH was in the deposit waiting queue, an all-time high.

Together, these data points showed long-term conviction from holders. This conviction is not enough to prop Ethereum prices up. Long-term investors can look to buy at these price levels, but the selling pressure might not be exhausted yet.

Ethereum capitulation is not over In a post on X, the crypto intelligence platform Glassnode observed that the 30-day moving average of spot ETF netflows for both Bitcoin [BTC] and Ethereum has been negative for the past three months. The Open Interest has also fallen significantly.

This was an extended period of negative average flows and highlighted the bearish pressure in the market. Demand has not yet come in, a warning for those looking to buy what feels like a bear market bottom.

There could be more pain ahead.

The ETH Funding Rate has been deeply negative for much of the past two weeks. Santiment pointed out in a post on X that this wave of short positioning was the most extreme it has been since August 2024.

The deeply negative Funding Rate shows that most of the market is positioned bearishly. While this reflects strong conviction on the downside, it also raises the chances of a sharp short squeeze if sentiment shifts.

Digital asset treasuries continued to hold on to the ETH, but only one company was aggressively adding more. Bitmine Immersion Technologies [BMNR] has bought 820k ETH since mid-November.

The adverse market conditions in recent weeks did not halt their buying. AMBCrypto reported that the company added 180k ETH to its holdings in the past 30 days.

This does not guarantee that a market bottom is close. Buyers should beware that bear market bottoms take months to form. Generally, a sharp price drop followed by a V-recovery is not how bear markets end.

Final Thoughts The ETH exodus from exchanges and the long validator deposit queue reflected long-term holder conviction. BMNR was the only DAT to continue buying ETH, while falling funding rates and OI reflected a deep bearish market bias.

14h05 ▪ 5 min read ▪ by James G.

Summarize this article with:

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market posted modest gains over the past 24 hours, even as fresh U.S. labor data complicated expectations for near-term rate cuts. January’s jobs report showed that hiring remained firm, but growth across several sectors appeared restrained. Markets had hoped for weaker data to strengthen the case for monetary easing. Instead, traders were left facing mixed signals.

In brief Realized losses hit $3.2B, marking one of Bitcoin’s largest capitulation events. Futures open interest dropped sharply as traders reduced leverage exposure. Selling pressure came mainly from newer holders, not long-term investors. Rate-cut odds fell to 7% as markets now await key U.S. CPI data. Market Reset? Bitcoin’s Vertical Drop Triggers Historic On-Chain Flush Bitcoin (BTC) rose 1.25% on the day after last week’s sell-offs dragged BTC close to $60,000. Moreover, the fall triggered one of the largest loss events in the asset’s history. On-chain data shows realized losses reached $3.2 billion during the drop, surpassing the losses recorded during the 2022 Terra collapse, according to Glassnode. 

Data platform Checkonchain described the move as a “textbook capitulation event,” marked by rapid selling, heavy volume, and forced exits by low-conviction holders.

Net Realized Profit/Loss (7-day EMA) plunged toward negative $1.5 billion per day, producing one of the deepest downside prints ever recorded for Bitcoin. The move was both sudden and vertical, resembling structural washouts such as June 2022, though larger in nominal dollar terms. 

Coin age data indicate that most of the losses originated from recent buyers, particularly the 2024–2026 cohorts. That pattern suggests newer participants bore the brunt of the selloff.

Historically, loss spikes of this scale have been associated with rapid balance-sheet resets rather than long-term structural breakdowns. Similar events in March 2020 and June 2022 occurred after heavy deleveraging and were later accompanied by relief rallies or extended consolidations. Current market behavior carries similar traits, including forced unwinds and weakened speculative positioning.

Capitulation Confirmed as Derivatives Positioning Unwinds Several structural factors shaped the recent decline:

Net realized losses exceeded $1.5 billion per day at the peak of the move. Selling pressure came mainly from newer holders rather than long-term investors. Leverage across derivatives markets was aggressively reduced. Volumes across spot, futures, options, and ETF markets surged to extreme levels. Derivatives data further support the capitulation narrative. According to CoinGlass, total Bitcoin futures open interest dropped sharply alongside price. After peaking near $100 billion during the rally toward six-figure prices, aggregate open interest rolled over as BTC declined. Both forced liquidations and voluntary long unwinds contributed to the contraction.

Price (tracked in yellow on the chart) and open interest (green) fell together, signaling broad deleveraging rather than fresh short positioning. When open interest rises into weakness, it often points to new bearish bets. 

Instead, traders reduced exposure across the board, clearing excess leverage from the system. Comparable contractions in past cycles marked high-volatility resets before markets found a new equilibrium.

Extreme Fear Returns to Crypto as Bitcoin Attempts Recovery Despite fading hopes for immediate rate cuts, remaining market participants appear reluctant to sell further. Prediction market data shows that the odds of a 25-basis-point cut next month have dropped sharply. 

On Polymarket, expectations fell to 7% from 18%. Kalshi shows a similar decline, from 20% to 7%. Reduced rate-cut expectations typically weigh on risk assets, as higher yields make fixed-income products more attractive.

Still, Bitcoin’s positive reaction suggests that selling pressure may be exhausting itself. Crypto Fear & Greed Index readings recently reached levels not seen since the collapse of FTX in 2022, indicating extreme pessimism.

Attention now turns to the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index report. Inflation data could provide clearer guidance on the Federal Reserve’s next steps. For now, markets appear to have completed a rapid reset, leaving traders watching closely for signs of stabilization or renewed volatility.

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James G.

James Godstime is a crypto journalist and market analyst with over three years of experience in crypto, Web3, and finance. He simplifies complex and technical ideas to engage readers. Outside of work, he enjoys football and tennis, which he follows passionately.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.

NEW YORK, Feb. 13, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Leading securities law firm Bleichmar Fonti & Auld LLP announces an investigation into PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. (NYSE:PFSI) for potential violations of the federal securities laws.

If you invested in PennyMac, you are encouraged to obtain additional information by visiting: https://www.bfalaw.com/cases/pennymac-class-action-lawsuit.

Why is PennyMac Being Investigated for Violations of the Federal Securities Laws?

PennyMac originates and services home mortgages. Recently, PennyMac increased its capacity to originate loans to better retain borrowers seeking to refinance their mortgages—a process known as “recapture” —as interest rates declined. During the relevant period, PennyMac touted the success of its recapture efforts, representing to investors that its recapture rates were improving.

BFA is investigating whether PennyMac misrepresented its ability to recapture customers refinancing their mortgages as interest rates declined.

Why did PennyMac’s Stock Drop?

On January 29, 2026, PennyMac reported disappointing 4Q 2025 financial results. During PennyMac’s earnings call held the same day, PennyMac senior management revealed that although PennyMac had increased its origination capacity to recapture more refinance business, many competitors had also added capacity, creating a highly competitive origination environment that constrained PennyMac’s ability to take advantage of refinance opportunities. This news caused the price of PennyMac stock to decline more than 37%, from $140.70 per share at the close of trading on January 29, 2026, to as low as $93.50 per share on January 30, 2026.

Click here for more information: https://www.bfalaw.com/cases/pennymac-class-action-lawsuit.

What Can You Do?

If you invested in PennyMac, you may have legal options and are encouraged to submit your information to the firm.

All representation is on a contingency fee basis, there is no cost to you. Shareholders are not responsible for any court costs or expenses of litigation. The firm will seek court approval for any potential fees and expenses.

Submit your information by visiting:

https://www.bfalaw.com/cases/pennymac-class-action-lawsuit

Or contact:
Adam McCall
[email protected]
212.789.3619

Why Bleichmar Fonti & Auld LLP?

BFA is a leading international law firm representing plaintiffs in securities class actions and shareholder litigation. It has been named a top plaintiff law firm by Chambers USA, The Legal 500, and ISS SCAS, and its attorneys have been named “Elite Trial Lawyers” by the National Law Journal, “Litigation Stars” by Benchmark Litigation, among the top “500 Leading Plaintiff Financial Lawyers” by Lawdragon, “Titans of the Plaintiffs’ Bar” by Law360 and “SuperLawyers” by Thomson Reuters. Among its recent notable successes, BFA recovered over $900 million in value from Tesla, Inc.’s Board of Directors, as well as $420 million from Teva Pharmaceutical Ind. Ltd.

For more information about BFA and its attorneys, please visit https://www.bfalaw.com.

https://www.bfalaw.com/cases/pennymac-class-action-lawsuit

Attorney advertising. Past results do not guarantee future outcomes.

NEW YORK, Feb. 13, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Leading securities law firm Bleichmar Fonti & Auld LLP announces an investigation into Wealthfront Corporation (NASDAQ: WLTH) for potential violations of the federal securities laws.

If you invested in Wealthfront, you are encouraged to obtain additional information by visiting: https://www.bfalaw.com/cases/wealthfront-corporation-class-action.

Why is Wealthfront Being Investigated for Violations of the Federal Securities Laws?

Wealthfront is an online financial advisor that uses automated tools to provide investment and financial advice. On or around December 12, 2025, Wealthfront completed an initial public offering (“IPO”) of more than 34 million shares of common stock at a price of $14.00 per share.

BFA is investigating whether Wealthfront violated the federal securities laws by making false and misleading statements to investors, including in the offering materials for its IPO.

Why did Wealthfront’s Stock Drop?

On January 12, 2026, Wealthfront published its first quarterly results as a publicly traded company. The results included net deposit outflows of $208 million, a stark reversal from the $874 million in inflows the company experienced during the same period a year earlier. During the company’s earnings conference call held the same day, CEO David Fortunato attributed the decline to falling interest rates and emphasized the strategic importance of Wealthfront’s new home-lending business which he asserted would protect the company from downside risk should interest rates continue to fall. Also on the call, Fortunato revealed that he personally owns a 95.1% stake in Wealthfront’s home-lending business and that the company may “revisit or revise the ownership structure.” This news caused the price of Wealthfront stock to drop $2.12 per share, nearly 17%, from a closing price of $12.59 per share on January 12, 2026, to $10.47 per share on January 13, 2026.

Click here for more information: https://www.bfalaw.com/cases/wealthfront-corporation-class-action.

What Can You Do?

If you invested in Wealthfront, you may have legal options and are encouraged to submit your information to the firm.

All representation is on a contingency fee basis; there is no cost to you. Shareholders are not responsible for any court costs or expenses of litigation. The firm will seek court approval for any potential fees and expenses.

Submit your information by visiting:

https://www.bfalaw.com/cases/wealthfront-corporation-class-action

Or contact:
Adam McCall
[email protected]
212.789.3619

Why Bleichmar Fonti & Auld LLP?

BFA is a leading international law firm representing plaintiffs in securities class actions and shareholder litigation. It has been named a top plaintiff law firm by Chambers USA, The Legal 500, and ISS SCAS, and its attorneys have been named “Elite Trial Lawyers” by the National Law Journal, “Litigation Stars” by Benchmark Litigation, among the top “500 Leading Plaintiff Financial Lawyers” by Lawdragon, “Titans of the Plaintiffs’ Bar” by Law360 and “SuperLawyers” by Thomson Reuters. Among its recent notable successes, BFA recovered over $900 million in value from Tesla, Inc.’s Board of Directors, as well as $420 million from Teva Pharmaceutical Ind. Ltd.

For more information about BFA and its attorneys, please visit https://www.bfalaw.com.

https://www.bfalaw.com/cases/wealthfront-corporation-class-action

Attorney advertising. Past results do not guarantee future outcomes.

The Microsoft logo is displayed through a magnifying glass in this photo illustration in Ontario, Canada, on February 5, 2026. (Photo by Thomas Fuller/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

NurPhoto via Getty Images

Microsoft stock (NASDAQ: MSFT) is down 15% year-to-date, driven largely by investor anxiety over heavy capital expenditures and a slight deceleration in cloud growth reported in late January.

However, this pullback raises a critical question: Is the stock now a bargain?

Historically, Microsoft has shown a remarkable ability to rebound, posting 30% gains in under two months during pivotal stretches in 2015 and 2023. If these historical patterns hold, upcoming catalysts could once again trigger a period of robust momentum and significant value creation for shareholders.

Specifically, we identify these catalysts:

AI Infrastructure Buildout Unlocking BacklogCopilot Enterprise Penetration Reaching Tipping PointActivision Integration Driving Gaming Margin ExpansionCatalyst 1: AI Infrastructure Buildout Unlocking BacklogDetails: Speeding up the conversion of $625B commercial cloud backlog, resulting in significant margin inflection after the CapEx cycleSegment Affected: Intelligent CloudPotential Timeline: Mid-2026 through 2027Evidence: Commercial RPO soaring 110% YoY to $625 billion; Azure growth remaining steady at 39% due to immense AI demand surpassing current capacityCatalyst 2: Copilot Enterprise Penetration Reaching Tipping PointDetails: Amplifying Microsoft 365 average revenue per user (ARPU), adding billions in high-margin, recurring software revenueSegment Affected: Productivity and Business ProcessesPotential Timeline: Next 2-3 Earnings CallsEvidence: Paid seats increasing 160% YoY to 15 million, representing only 3% of total M365 users; CIO surveys showing 80% plan to deploy within the next yearCatalyst 3: Activision Integration Driving Gaming Margin ExpansionDetails: Transitioning gaming revenue to high-margin, recurring subscriptions; boosting Game Pass subscriber growth with popular titlesSegment Affected: More Personal ComputingPotential Timeline: Throughout 2026Evidence: Xbox content and services revenue surging 61% post-acquisition; record Game Pass subscriber additions on Call of Duty launch dayBut The Stock Is Not Without Its RisksHere are specific risks we identify:

MORE FOR YOU

AI Capital Expenditure Overhang & Uncertain MonetizationMulti-Front Regulatory Siege on Cloud DominanceCloud Margin Compression from Resurgent Hyperscale CompetitionExamining historical drawdowns during market crises provides another perspective on risk.

Microsoft experienced a 65% decline during the Dot-Com crash, 58% during the Global Financial Crisis, and 37% during the Inflation Shock. Smaller drops, such as during Covid and in 2018, still resulted in stock declines of 18-28%.

Reference: Microsoft’s FundamentalsRevenue Growth: 16.7% LTM and 14.4% last 3-year average.Cash Generation: Nearly 25.3% free cash flow margin and 46.7% operating margin LTM.Valuation: Microsoft stock trades at a P/E multiple of 25.0MSFT Fundamentals vs. S&P Medians

Trefis

*LTM: Last Twelve Months

If you want more details, read Buy or Sell MSFT Stock.

Still not convinced about MSFT stock? Consider Portfolio Approach

Don’t Just Pick Stocks, Build A Resilient Wealth StrategyWhen uncertainty drives daily trading, savvy investors focus on the broader picture. Our partner’s wealth strategies assist you in navigating evolving market cycles.

What if you capitalized on the current commodity super cycle? Could a portfolio allocating 10% to commodities, 10% to gold, and 2% to crypto, in addition to equities, yield higher returns in the next 1-3 years? We’ve analyzed the statistics. Our wealth management partner manages precisely these types of intricate multi-asset strategies, merging real assets with high-performance equity segments like the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.

Crocs delivered a strong Q4, beating expectations on both revenue and EPS, and raised full-year guidance. CROX remains undervalued with a new price target of $173, reflecting a 76% upside from current levels. Significant debt repayment and $180M in share repurchases, alongside robust international growth and HEYDUDE stabilization, reinforce the investment case.

Alithya delivers $130.9 M in new Bookings(1) and maintains a strong cash position as the company pursues its shift toward higher‑value, complex transformation projects.

Q3-2026 Highlights

Revenues decreased 0.5% to $115.2 million, compared to $115.8 million for the same quarter last year. 82.2% of revenues were generated from clients which we had in the same quarter last year. Gross margin decreased 2.4% to $36.5 million, compared to $37.4 million for the same quarter last year. Gross Margin as a Percentage of Revenues(1) decreased to 31.7%, compared to 32.3% for the same quarter last year. Net earnings increased to $0.7 million, or $0.01 per share, compared to a loss of $3.7 million, or a loss of $0.04 per share, for the same quarter last year. Adjusted Net Earnings(2) decreased by $0.6 million, or 11.6%, to $5.1 million, from $5.7 million for the same quarter last year. This translated into Adjusted Net Earnings per Share(2) of $0.05, compared to $0.06 for the same quarter last year. Adjusted EBITDA(2) decreased by $0.3 million, or 2.9%, to $10.0 million, for an Adjusted EBITDA Margin(2) of 8.7% of revenues, compared to $10.3 million, for an Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 8.9% of revenues, for the same quarter last year. Net cash from operating activities was $25.5 million, representing an increase of $13.8 million, compared to $11.7 million for the same quarter last year. Q3 Bookings reached $130.9 million, which translated into a Book-to-Bill Ratio(1) of 1.14 for the quarter, compared to Bookings of $138.4 million and a Book-to-Bill Ratio of 1.20 for the same quarter last year. Backlog(1) represented approximately 14 months of trailing twelve-month revenues as at December 31, 2025. , /PRNewswire/ - Alithya Group inc. (TSX: ALYA) ("Alithya" or the "Company") reported today its results for the third quarter of fiscal 2026 ended December 31, 2025. All amounts are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise stated.

Summary of the financial results for the third quarter:

Financial Highlights

(in thousands of $, except for margin percentages)

F2026-Q3

F2025-Q3

Revenues

115,162

115,761

Gross Margin

36,514

37,385

Gross Margin as a percentage of revenues (%)(1)

31.7 %

32.3 %

Selling, general and administrative expenses

28,460

28,814

Selling, general and administrative expenses (%)(1)

24.7 %

24.9 %

Net Earnings (Loss)

676

(3,716)

Basic and Diluted Earnings (Loss) per Share

0.01

(0.04)

Adjusted Net Earnings(2)

5,054

5,719

Adjusted Net Earnings per Share(2)

0.05

0.06

Adjusted EBITDA(2)

9,982

10,275

Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)(2)

8.7 %

8.9 %

(1)

These are other financial measures without a standardized definition under IFRS, which may not be comparable to similar measures used by other issuers. See "Non-IFRS and Other Financial Measures" below.

(2)    

These are non-IFRS financial measures without a standardized definition under IFRS, which may not be comparable to similar measures used by other issuers. More information and quantitative reconciliations of Adjusted Net Earnings, Adjusted Net Earnings per share and Adjusted EBITDA to the most directly comparable IFRS measures are presented below under the caption "Non-IFRS and Other Financial Measures". "Adjusted EBITDA Margin" refers to the percentage of total revenue that Adjusted EBITDA represents for a given period.

Quote by Paul Raymond, President and CEO, Alithya:

"I am proud of the team's continued discipline in executing our long-term strategy. While our third quarter was slower compared to the same period last year, we are reporting healthy bookings and building momentum in strategic areas. Also, our strong cash position gives us the flexibility to pursue growth opportunities and allocate capital where it drives value for our shareholders.

In addition, we are announcing the signature of an agreement to spin off our equity interests related to Datum Consulting Group in consideration for a minority interest in a strategic partnership dedicated to investing in entities commercializing AI solutions. With a streamlined structure and greater operational focus, we believe this approach will enable these assets to scale more rapidly and unlock stronger returns.

As we remain focused on our industry‑first model, we are steadily shifting toward higher‑value, specialized transformation work that helps our clients leverage the latest AI‑driven technologies from our partners."

Third Quarter Results

Revenues

Revenues amounted to $115.2 million for the three months ended December 31, 2025, representing a decrease of $0.6 million, or 0.5%, from $115.8 million for the three months ended December 31, 2024.

U.S. revenues increased by $6.2 million, or 12.7%, to $55.0 million for the three months ended December 31, 2025, from $48.8 million for the three months ended December 31, 2024, due primarily to revenues from the acquisition of eVerge Interests, Inc. and its subsidiaries on May 31, 2025 ("eVerge") and organic growth in enterprise transformation services, partially offset by an unfavorable US$ exchange rate impact of $0.2 million between the two periods.

Revenues in Canada decreased by $7.7 million, or 12.5%, to $54.0 million for the three months ended December 31, 2025, from $61.7 million for the three months ended December 31, 2024. The decrease in revenues was due primarily to reduced revenues from government contracts and certain client projects reaching maturity, partially offset by revenues from the acquisition of XRM Vision Inc. and its subsidiaries on December 1, 2024 ("XRM Vision").

International revenues increased by $1.0 million, or 19.2%, to $6.2 million for the three months ended December 31, 2025, from $5.2 million for the three months ended December 31, 2024. The increase in revenues was primarily due to organic growth in enterprise transformation services and a favorable foreign exchange rate impact of $0.5 million between the two periods.

During the quarter, 22 new clients were signed.

Gross Margin

Gross margin decreased by $0.9 million, or 2.4%, to $36.5 million for the three months ended December 31, 2025, from $37.4 million for the three months ended December 31, 2024. Gross margin as a percentage of revenues decreased to 31.7% for the three months ended December 31, 2025, from 32.3% for the three months ended December 31, 2024.

In the U.S., gross margin as a percentage of revenues decreased compared to the same quarter last year, primarily due to decreased utilization rates, partially offset by the increased use of our smart shoring capabilities and a proportionally larger increase in the use of permanent employees compared to subcontractors.

In Canada, gross margin as a percentage of revenues increased compared to the same quarter last year, mainly due to a proportionally larger decrease in the use of subcontractors compared to permanent employees, a positive margin contribution from XRM Vision, and a reduction in revenues from lower gross margin clients in favor of higher-value offerings, partially offset by a slight decrease in utilization rates.

International gross margin as a percentage of revenues decreased compared to the same quarter last year, mainly due to one client project coming to maturity, which historically had a higher gross margin.

Selling, General and Administrative Expenses

Selling, general and administrative expenses totaled $28.5 million for the three months ended December 31, 2025, representing a decrease of $0.3 million, or 1.0%, from $28.8 million for the three months ended December 31, 2024, despite including an increase of $2.6 million of expenses related to XRM Vision and eVerge. Selling, general and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenues amounted to 24.7% for the three months ended December 31, 2025, compared to 24.9% for the same period last year. The decrease in selling, general and administrative expenses was mainly due to decreased employee compensation costs, mainly stemming from variable compensation, and decreased information technology and communications costs, partially offset by expenses from XRM Vision and eVerge, increased occupancy costs, and increased professional fees.

Net Earnings (Loss)

Net earnings for the three months ended December 31, 2025 were $0.7 million, representing an increase of $4.4 million, from a net loss of $3.7 million for the three months ended December 31, 2024. The increase was due primarily to the decreased impairment of goodwill and intangibles, decreased selling, general and administrative expenses, despite additional expenses related to XRM Vision and eVerge, decreased depreciation and amortization of intangibles, and decreased income tax expense, partially offset by decreased gross margin, due to decreased utilization rates, decreased business acquisition, integration and reorganization costs recovery, and increased foreign exchange loss for the three months ended December 31, 2025, compared to the three months ended December 31, 2024. On a per share basis, this translated into basic and diluted earnings per share of $0.01 for the three months ended December 31, 2025, compared to a loss of $0.04 per share for the three months ended December 31, 2024.

Adjusted Net Earnings

Adjusted Net Earnings amounted to $5.1 million for the three months ended December 31, 2025, representing a decrease of $0.6 million, or 11.6%, from $5.7 million for the three months ended December 31, 2024. As explained above, the decrease was primarily due to decreased gross margin, due to decreased utilization rates, and increased foreign exchange loss, partially offset by decreased selling, general and administrative expenses, despite additional expenses related to XRM Vision and eVerge, decreased depreciation, and decreased income tax expense for the three months ended December 31, 2025, compared to the three months ended December 31, 2024. This translated into Adjusted Net Earnings per Share of $0.05 for the three months ended December 31, 2025, compared to $0.06 for the three months ended December 31, 2024.

Adjusted EBITDA

Adjusted EBITDA amounted to $10.0 million for the three months ended December 31, 2025, representing a decrease of $0.3 million, or 2.9%, from $10.3 million for the three months ended December 31, 2024. As explained above, the decrease was due primarily to decreased gross margin, due to decreased utilization rates, partially offset by decreased selling, general and administrative expenses, despite additional expenses related to XRM Vision and eVerge. Adjusted EBITDA Margin was 8.7% for the three months ended December 31, 2025, compared to 8.9% for the three months ended December 31, 2024.

Bookings

Bookings amounted to $130.9 million, which translated into a Book-to-Bill Ratio of 1.14 for the quarter, compared to $138.4 million, which translated into a Book-to-Bill Ratio of 1.20, for the same quarter last year. Bookings for the trailing twelve months amounted to $440.0 million as at December 31, 2025, which translated into a Book-to-Bill ratio of 0.90.

If revenues from the two long-term contracts signed as part of an acquisition in the first quarter of fiscal year 2022 were excluded, the Book-to-Bill ratio would have been 1.26, compared to 1.34 for the same quarter last year. For the trailing twelve months as at December 31, 2025, the Book-to-Bill ratio, excluding revenues from the two long-term contracts, would have been 1.00.

Liquidity and Capital Resources

For the three months ended December 31, 2025, net cash from operating activities was $25.5 million, representing an increase of $13.8 million, from $11.7 million for the three months ended December 31, 2024. The net cash from operating activities for the three months ended December 31, 2025, resulted primarily from $17.4 million in favorable changes in non-cash working capital items and $7.4 million of other non-cash adjustments and of net financial expenses.

Favorable changes in non-cash working capital items of $17.4 million during the three months ended December 31, 2025 were mainly due to the timing of payments, collections, and invoicing and consisted primarily of a $14.7 million decrease in accounts receivable and other receivables, an $8.5 million decrease in tax credits receivable, a $1.1 million decrease in prepaids, a $0.8 million increase in deferred revenues, and a $0.3 million decrease in unbilled revenues, partially offset by an $8.1 million decrease in accounts payable and accrued liabilities.

As at December 31, 2025, drawings on the Credit Facility amounted to $80.6 million, and additional capital resources available to Alithya amounted to $125.1 million, consisting of cash and availability under its credit facilities, including the accordion provision. Management believes that the Company is well positioned to sustain its operations while maintaining adequate levels of liquidity.

Nine-Month Results

Revenues amounted to $363.6 million for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, representing an increase of $15.4 million, or 4.4%, from $348.2 million for the nine months ended December 31, 2024. Gross margin increased by $9.1 million, or 8.3%, to $119.1 million for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, from $110.0 million for the nine months ended December 31, 2024. Gross margin as a percentage of revenues increased to 32.8% for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, from 31.6% for the nine months ended December 31, 2024. Selling, general and administrative expenses totaled $90.3 million for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, representing an increase of $4.0 million, or 4.6%, from $86.3 million for the nine months ended December 31, 2024, due to an increase of $7.0 million of expenses from XRM Vision and eVerge, since its acquisition on May 31, 2025. Selling, general and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenues amounted to 24.8% for the nine months ended December 31, 2025 and 2024. Adjusted EBITDA amounted to $34.4 million for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, representing an increase of $4.8 million, or 16.1%, from $29.6 million for the nine months ended December 31, 2024. Adjusted EBITDA Margin was 9.5% for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, compared to 8.5% for the nine months ended December 31, 2024. Net loss for the nine months ended December 31, 2025 was $30.1 million, due primarily to an impairment charge of $38.0 million in the second quarter of this year, representing an increase of $23.4 million, from $6.7 million for the nine months ended December 31, 2024. On a per share basis, this translated into a basic and diluted loss per share of $0.31 for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, compared to $0.07 per share for the nine months ended December 31, 2024. Adjusted Net Earnings amounted to $21.0 million for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, representing an increase of $5.1 million, or 32.1%, from $15.9 million for the nine months ended December 31, 2024.

Normal Course Issuer Bid Program

On September 9, 2025, the Company's Board of Directors authorized and subsequently the Toronto Stock Exchange ("TSX") approved the implementation of a Normal Course Issuer Bid ("NCIB"). Under the NCIB, the Company is allowed to purchase for cancellation up to 5,939,183 Subordinate Voting Shares, representing 10% of the Company's public float as of the close of markets on September 2, 2025.

The NCIB plan commenced on September 12, 2025 and will end on the earlier of September 11, 2026 and the date on which the Company will have acquired the maximum number of Subordinate Voting Shares allowable under the NCIB or will otherwise have decided not to make any further purchases. All purchases of Subordinate Voting Shares are made by means of open market transactions at their market price at the time of acquisition. Concurrently, the Company entered into an automatic share purchase plan ("ASPP") with a designated broker in connection with its NCIB. The ASPP allows the designated broker to purchase for cancellation Subordinate Voting Shares, on behalf of the Company, subject to certain trading parameters established, from time to time, by the Company.

As at December 31, 2025, 347,160 Subordinate Voting Shares were purchased for cancellation under the NCIB. Shareholders may obtain a copy of the notice of NCIB approved by the TSX, free of charge, by contacting the Company.

Datum Transaction and Share Repurchase Transaction

Alithya entered into a binding agreement with Medivra Holdings LLC (the "Purchaser"), an entity controlled by Amar Bukkasagaram, Senior Vice President, Data Solutions of Alithya, pursuant to which the Purchaser has agreed to acquire Datum Consulting Group, LLC and its affiliates ("Datum", the "Datum Transaction"). Datum, which was acquired by Alithya from Mr. Bukkasagaram in 2022, provides application modernization and data migration services and represents less than 5% of the Company's total revenues and assets. In consideration for the sale of Datum, Alithya will receive a minority equity interest in the capital of Purchaser. The closing of the Datum Transaction is expected to take place in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 and is subject to customary conditions for a transaction of this nature. Mr. Bukkasagaram will step down from his position at Alithya, effective on the closing date of the Datum Transaction, in order to devote his time to the business of Datum and the Purchaser.

In connection with the Datum Transaction, Alithya also announced that it has entered into a private agreement with Mr. Bukkasagaram for the repurchase for cancellation (the "Share Repurchase Transaction") of 2,489,682 Class A subordinate voting shares of Alithya (the "Subordinate Voting Shares") at a price equal to the lower of (i) the volume-weighted average price per Subordinate Voting Share on the Toronto Stock Exchange (the "TSX") for the five (5) trading days ending on and including the day immediately preceding the closing date of the Share Repurchase Transaction and (ii) the simple average of the closing prices of the Subordinate Voting Shares for the twenty (20) trading days immediately preceding the closing date of the Share Repurchase Transaction. The closing of the Share Repurchase Transaction is expected to take place on or about February 17, 2026 and is subject to customary conditions for a transaction of this nature. At closing of the Datum Transaction, Mr. Bukkasagaram will advance the proceeds from the Share Repurchase Transaction to Datum in order to fund the short-term working capital needs of Datum. The Share Repurchase Transaction will be made in connection with the NCIB. Following the Share Repurchase Transaction, the Company will have repurchased a total of 2,934,287 Subordinate Voting Shares and therefore a total of 3,004,896 Subordinate Voting Shares will remain available for repurchase under the current NCIB.

Forward-Looking Statements

This press release contains statements that may constitute "forward-looking information" or "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws and the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and other applicable U.S. safe harbours (collectively "forward-looking statements"). Statements that do not exclusively relate to historical facts, as well as statements relating to management's expectations regarding the future growth, results of operations, performance and business prospects of Alithya, and other information related to Alithya's business strategy and future plans or which refer to the characterizations of future events or circumstances represent forward-looking statements. Such statements often contain the words "anticipates," "expects," "intends," "plans," "predicts," "believes," "seeks," "estimates," "could," "would," "will," "may," "can," "continue," "potential," "should," "project," "target," and similar expressions and variations thereof, although not all forward-looking statements contain these identifying words.

Forward-looking statements in this press release include, among other things, information or statements about: (i) our ability to generate sufficient earnings to support our operations; (ii) our ability to take advantage of business opportunities and meet our goals set in our three-year strategic plan; (iii) our ability to maintain and develop our business, including by broadening the scope of our service offerings, by leveraging artificial intelligence ("AI"), our geographic presence and our smart shore capabilities, our expertise, and our integrated offerings, and by entering into new contracts and penetrating new markets; (iv) our strategy, future operations, and prospects, including our expectations regarding future revenue resulting from bookings and backlog and providing stakeholders with long-term growing return on investment; (v) our ability to service our debt and raise additional capital; (vi) our estimates regarding our financial performance, including our revenues, profitability, costs and expenses, gross margins, liquidity, capital resources, and capital expenditures; (vii) our ability to identify suitable acquisition targets and realize the expected synergies or cost savings relating to the integration of acquired entities, and (viii) our ability to balance, meet and exceed the needs of our stakeholders; (ix) the expected timing and completion of the Datum Transaction and the Share Repurchase Transaction; (x) the satisfaction of the conditions to closing of each transaction, (xi) and the intended use of proceeds from the Share Repurchase Transaction.

Forward-looking statements are presented for the sole purpose of assisting investors and others in understanding Alithya's objectives, strategies and business outlook as well as its anticipated operating environment and may not be appropriate for other purposes. Although management believes the expectations reflected in Alithya's forward-looking statements were reasonable as at the date they were made, forward-looking statements are based on the opinions, assumptions and estimates of management and, as such, are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties and other factors, many of which are beyond Alithya's control, and which could cause actual events or results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Such risks and uncertainties include but are not limited to those discussed in the section titled "Risks and Uncertainties" of Alithya's Management Discussion and Analysis ("MD&A") for the year ended March 31, 2025, as well as in Alithya's other materials made public, including documents filed with Canadian and U.S. securities regulatory authorities from time to time and which are available on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca and EDGAR at www.sec.gov. Additional risks and uncertainties not currently known to Alithya or that Alithya currently deems to be immaterial could also have a material adverse effect on its financial position, financial performance, cash flows, business or reputation.

Forward-looking statements contained in this press release are qualified by these cautionary statements and are made only as of the date of this press release. Alithya expressly disclaims any obligation to update or alter any forward-looking statements, or the factors or assumptions underlying them, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable law. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements since actual results may vary materially from them.

Non-IFRS and Other Financial Measures

This press release includes certain measures which have not been prepared in accordance with IFRS and other financial measures. Adjusted Net Earnings, Adjusted Net Earnings per Share, EBITDA, EBITDA Margin, Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA Margin are non-IFRS measures and Bookings, Book-to-Bill Ratio, Backlog, Gross Margin as a Percentage of Revenues and Selling, General and Administrative Expenses as a Percentage of Revenues are other financial measures used in this press release. These measures are provided as additional information to complement IFRS measures by providing further understanding of Alithya's results of operations from management's perspective. They do not have any standardized meaning prescribed by IFRS and are therefore unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. They should be considered as supplemental in nature and not as a substitute for the related financial information prepared in accordance with IFRS. They are used to provide investors with additional insight into Alithya's operating performance and thus highlight trends in Alithya's business that may not otherwise be apparent when relying solely on IFRS measures. Additional details for these non-IFRS and other financial measures can be found in section 5, "Non-IFRS and Other Financial Measures", of Alithya's MD&A for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, filed on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca and on EDGAR at www.sec.gov, which includes explanations of the composition and usefulness of these non-IFRS financial measures and non-IFRS ratios and is incorporated by reference in this press release.

The following table reconciles net earnings (loss) to Adjusted Net Earnings:

For the three months ended
December 31,

For the nine months ended
December 31,

(in $ thousands)

2025

2024

2025

2024

$

$

$

$

Net earnings (loss)

676

(3,716)

(30,100)

(6,748)

Business acquisition, integration and reorganization costs (recovery)

(372)

(1,244)

(2,210)

88

Amortization of intangibles

4,125

4,810

14,397

14,089

Share-based compensation

1,655

1,704

5,331

4,428

Impairment of goodwill and intangibles

—

5,144

38,028

5,144

Loss on disposal of property and equipment and right-of-use assets and loss on lease termination

273

—

310

—

Severance

—

—

—

1,502

Income tax related to deferred tax asset recognized on purchase price allocation

128

—

(1,820)

—

Effect of income tax related to above items

(1,431)

(979)

(2,895)

(2,580)

Adjusted Net Earnings (1)

5,054

5,719

21,041

15,923

Basic and diluted earnings (loss) per share

0.01

(0.04)

(0.31)

(0.07)

Adjusted Net Earnings per Share (1)

0.05

0.06

0.21

0.17

(1) Non-IFRS measure. See section 5 titled "Non-IFRS and Other Financial Measures" of Alithya's MD&A for the three months ended December 31, 2025, filed on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca and on EDGAR at www.sec.gov.

The following table reconciles net earnings (loss) to EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA:

For the three months ended
December 31,

For the nine months ended
December 31,

(in $ thousands)

2025

2024

2025

2024

$

$

$

$

Revenues

115,162

115,761

363,612

348,150

Net earnings (loss)

676

(3,716)

(30,100)

(6,748)

Net financial expenses

2,339

2,372

7,305

6,246

Income tax expense (recovery)

37

724

(2,651)

1,962

Depreciation

668

1,168

2,711

3,365

Amortization of intangibles

4,125

4,810

14,397

14,089

EBITDA (1)

7,845

5,358

(8,338)

18,914

EBITDA Margin (1)

6.8 %

4.6 %

(2.3) %

5.4 %

Adjusted for:

Foreign exchange loss (gain)

581

(687)

1,278

(445)

Share-based compensation

1,655

1,704

5,331

4,428

Business acquisition, integration and reorganization costs (recovery)

(372)

(1,244)

(2,210)

88

Impairment of goodwill and intangibles

—

5,144

38,028

5,144

Loss on disposal of property and equipment, intangible and lease modification

273

—

310

—

Severance

—

—

—

1,502

Adjusted EBITDA (1)

9,982

10,275

34,399

29,631

Adjusted EBITDA Margin (1)

8.7 %

8.9 %

9.5 %

8.5 %

(1) Non-IFRS measure. See section 5 titled "Non-IFRS and Other Financial Measures" of Alithya's MD&A for the three months ended December 31, 2025, filed on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca and on EDGAR at www.sec.gov.

Third Quarter Conference Call

Alithya will hold a conference call to discuss these results on February 13, 2026, at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time. Interested parties can join the call by dialing 1-800-990-4777, or via webcast at https://app.webinar.net/e9PVp7yLZMJ. A replay will be made available until February 20, 2026 (conference replay information: 1-888-660-6345, 69704#).

About Alithya

We are trusted advisors who leverage AI and the latest technologies in our strategic consulting and digital transformation services. We help solve business challenges that enable our clients to unlock new opportunities, modernize processes and gain efficiencies. We leverage a world-class team of passionate industry experts, AI-based IP solutions, the latest digital technologies, a solid understanding of mission critical business applications and a partner ecosystem to accelerate results. We've built a foundation of success that includes a specialized global delivery network to provide end-to-end solutions.

We strive to make a difference. We are Alithya.

Note to readers: Management's Discussion and Analysis and the interim condensed consolidated financial statements and notes for the three and nine months ended December 31, 2025 are available on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca, on EDGAR at www.sec.gov and on the Company's website at www.alithya.com. Shareholders may, upon request, receive a hard copy of these documents free of charge.

SOURCE Alithya Group inc.

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Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META | META Price Prediction) became the centerpiece of Bill Ackman’s boldest portfolio moves. Pershing Square exited its entire Chipotle stake and rotated into Meta, betting AI infrastructure will outperform struggling fast-casual dining. Should everyday investors follow his lead?

Why Ackman Walked Away From Chipotle Chipotle’s Q4 2025 results revealed operational strain that likely accelerated Ackman’s exit. Comparable sales dropped 2.5%, driven by a 3.2% decline in transactions, which was only partially offset by a 0.7% increase in the average check. This marked the first same-store sales decline in over two decades. Operating margin compressed to 14.1% from 14.6% year-over-year, while food costs climbed to 30.2% and labor held at 25.5%.

The stock’s performance reflects this pressure. CMG has fallen 37.44% over the past year and sits 3.14% lower year-to-date. Despite opening 132 restaurants in Q4 with 97 Chipotlanes, expansion hasn’t offset weakening consumer demand. Bureau of Economic Analysis data shows food services spending grew just 3.9% from January through November 2025, lagging the 4.6% increase in total personal consumption expenditures.

Insider activity reinforces caution. Curtis Garner, Chief Strategy and Technology Officer, sold over 468,000 shares throughout 2025, including 100,000 shares at $36.05 in mid-December. CEO Scott Boatwright parted with 81,759 shares at $42.91 in August. When executives sell aggressively as the stock declines, it signals limited near-term confidence.

Meta’s AI Infrastructure Bet Looks Different Meta’s Q4 2025 results delivered the growth story Ackman appears to be chasing. Revenue hit $59.89 billion, beating estimates of $59.76 billion, with earnings per share reaching $8.88 versus the $8.39 consensus. Revenue climbed 24% year-over-year, driven by an 18% increase in ad impressions and 6% higher ad pricing. Net income of $22.77 billion reflected 9.3% growth despite heavy AI spending.

Meta plans $115 billion to $135 billion in capex for AI infrastructure, a bet CEO Mark Zuckerberg frames around building “personal superintelligence.” Operating margin of 41% demonstrates profitability even as R&D expenses surged 30.7% to $51.37 billion in fiscal 2025. Meta returned $26.26 billion to shareholders through buybacks in 2025.

Valuation supports the rotation. Meta trades at 28x trailing earnings with a forward P/E of 22x, reflecting expected earnings acceleration. Chipotle’s 33x trailing P/E looks expensive given 4% quarterly earnings growth and 4.9% revenue growth. Meta’s 30.1% net margin dwarfs Chipotle’s 12.9%, and analysts see Meta reaching $860, compared to its current price near $650.

What Ackman’s Move Signals About Both Companies Ackman’s exit from Chipotle reflects concerns that the transaction decline and margin pressure represent structural challenges rather than temporary headwinds. The company’s plan to open 350 to 370 restaurants in 2026 addresses expansion but doesn’t resolve the underlying demand weakness that drove the first same-store sales decline in over two decades. The rotation suggests Ackman views operational recovery stories as less compelling than secular growth opportunities in the current market environment.

The shift into Meta signals conviction that AI infrastructure investment will generate returns that justify near-term margin pressure. Meta’s advertising business continues to show resilience with 24% revenue growth, while the $115 billion to $135 billion capex commitment positions the company for long-term AI monetization. Ackman’s timing reflects a view that AI-driven tech returns will define the next market cycle, making Meta’s 1.28 beta and heavy spending acceptable trade-offs for investors focused on growth over stability. The move highlights a broader portfolio shift from consumer discretionary exposure to digital infrastructure plays.

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After AppLovin Corp.’s (NASDAQ: APP) share price tumbled more than 35% early last year due to a pending class action lawsuit and to short seller reports, the software company’s better-than-expected quarterly reports helped the stock recover. Shares hit a new high of $745.61 a piece in September and took another run at that high in late December. However, they have retreated over 45% year to date, including an almost 10% drop in the past week. AppLovin stock now has underperformed the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq over the past year.

Since the company went public in 2021, its share price is still over 532% higher. This has clearly been a top growth stock that investors have benefited from owning in recent years. AppLovin has been among the top tech stocks seeing a lot of love from the market, but is that still true?

These days, the company focuses on providing software solutions that enhance the marketing and monetization of online advertisers. With AppLovin, there are certainly catalysts worth considering, and we shall get to those shortly. It continues to benefit from the strong secular growth trends that investors are seeking increased exposure to. As investors continue to pile into such stocks, retail investors appear eager to gain outsized exposure in anticipation of a continued boom.

It is worth remembering that AppLovin experienced a drawdown of more than 90% from its post-pandemic high in 2021. So, is this stock headed for further declines, or is its momentum sustainable? Let’s dive into some catalysts and price predictions around where this stock could go for the rest of 2025 through to the end of this decade.

Three Key Drivers for AppLovin

As mentioned, AppLovin investors have to contend with plenty of news. For instance, analysts covering AppLovin have not been as bullish on the company as many may think, having issued warnings about the stock in the past year due to concerns about the company’s fundamentals. Goldman Sachs reiterated its Neutral rating on the shares after the recent earnings report, though other analysts maintained Buy ratings.

Nonetheless, we see these key drivers propelling AppLovin going forward.

1. AI-Powered Advertising Enhancements  AppLovin’s Axon AI engine has been a game-changer, optimizing ad targeting and expanding beyond gaming into new categories like e-commerce, fintech, and automotive advertising. During the Q4 2024 earnings call, CEO Adam Foroughi highlighted that for the first time, AppLovin captured a significant share of holiday shopping ad spend—validating that its AI models are effective outside gaming.

Scaling AI Beyond Gaming: The company initially focused on direct-to-consumer (DTC) brands, but early pilots have shown AI-driven success across multiple verticals. This means that any business in any industry could potentially tap into AppLovin’s advertising platform. Personalized Advertising With Generative AI: The company is developing automated tools and AI-generated ad creatives to improve engagement. AppLovin’s self-service platform (currently in development) will eventually allow businesses to run ads autonomously with AI-optimized targeting, a major step toward scaling its reach. AppLovin’s AI capabilities are proving to be industry-agnostic, opening the door for millions of global advertisers.

2. Expansion Into E-commerce Advertising Foroughi described the fourth quarter of 2024 as a major milestone, marking AppLovin’s first significant penetration into e-commerce advertising. Historically, the company primarily monetized mobile gaming ads, but now retail and consumer brands are joining the platform in large numbers.

Surging Demand From E-commerce Brands: Advertisers saw strong return on investment during the holiday season, prompting continued demand for the platform in 2025. Pilot Program Scaling Up: While AppLovin hasn’t disclosed the number of e-commerce advertisers, industry checks suggest a significant influx of brands seeking access. Self-Service Expansion Is the Next Big Growth Driver: Currently, the company manually onboards advertisers, but the launch of automated tools and a self-serve platform will allow thousands of new businesses to join. E-commerce advertising is set to be a major revenue contributor. Once self-serve tools become operational, adoption could scale exponentially.

3. Strategic Divestment of Mobile Gaming Unit AppLovin is officially exiting game development—a move that frees up resources to focus entirely on advertising technology.

$900 Million Sale of Apps Business: AppLovin announced that it has signed an exclusive term sheet to sell its mobile gaming division, with $500 million in cash and $400 million in equity in a private company. Why This Matters: The company originally acquired gaming studios to train its AI models, but it was never meant to be a core business. Now that AI is self-sufficient, AppLovin no longer needs to develop its own games. Shifting to a Pure Ad-Tech Model: With gaming divested, the company can fully concentrate on expanding its advertising ecosystem, positioning itself as a direct competitor to Google and Meta in the ad tech space. Divesting from mobile games is a significant pivot for the company, as it paves the way for AppLovin to become a pure advertising technology company.

Stock Price Prediction for 2026 There are clearly strong reasons why AppLovin’s stock rose so much this past year. Simply put, investors have been betting on AppLovin as a potential AI winner, as its AI advancements have driven customer success and accelerated the company’s growth. If the company can continue to prioritize generating outsized free cash flow and return capital to shareholders to a greater degree, this multiple could be warranted. Here is where the stock could be headed, assuming the company’s multiple stays the same and earnings grow according to analyst estimates.

Wall Street’s consensus one-year price target for AppLovin has fallen to $666.92, which is still 81.8% higher than the current share price. On average, 28 analysts covering AppLovin recommend buying shares, seven of them with Strong Buy ratings.

24/7 Wall St.’s forecast projects AppLovin’s stock price to be $774.58 by year’s end 2026, which suggests a big rebound in the coming year. We expect the stock to resume its strong growth rate and outperform analysts’ expectations going forward.

AppLovin Price Target for 2030

By the end of the decade, we estimate AppLovin’s stock price will be $856.06 per share, with less than 10% year-over-year revenue growth. Our estimated stock price is over 133% higher than the current stock price. Here’s how it gets there:

Year Price Target Upside Potential 2026 $697.12 90.0% 2027 $731.49 99.4% 2028 $722.74 97.0% 2029 $809.70 120.7% 2030 $856.06 133.3% AppLovin Plunges 18% Despite Blowout Earnings as AI Fears Rule