Market Signal Briefing

Stańczak came aboard in 2025 after the exit of longtime chief Aya Miyaguchi amid criticism the foundation wasn't doing enough to push the Ethereum ecosystem.

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Strong BLS jobs data reduces near-term Fed rate-cut oddsA stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has tempered expectations for near‑term federal reserve rate cuts. Robust payroll gains signal ongoing labor‑market resilience, which tends to reduce urgency for early easing.

Historically, upside surprises in employment cool the case for immediate policy accommodation because they imply steady demand and potential persistence in underlying price pressures. That dynamic leaves policymakers seeking more evidence of disinflation and wage moderation before signaling a pivot.

What ‘rate-cut space’ means for Federal Reserve decisions“Rate‑cut space” is the policy room to lower the federal funds rate while still fulfilling the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. It reflects the interplay of payroll momentum, unemployment, wage growth, and inflation.

In practice, stronger labor data narrows that space because it suggests demand remains firm and inflation risks could linger. “The surprisingly robust payrolls reading … lessens the urgency for the Fed to cut rates,” said Anna Wong, chief U.S. economist at Bloomberg Economics.

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When jobs data surprise to the upside, treasury yields and the U.S. dollar often firm as markets extend a higher‑for‑longer policy path. Equity benchmarks can wobble as discount‑rate expectations reset and valuation headwinds re‑price.

Gold prices eased after the strong U.S. jobs print dimmed hopes for near‑term cuts, as reported by Kitco. At the time of this writing, Bitcoin traded near $67,880 and crypto markets softened after the labor surprise, according to Investing.com.

CME FedWatch odds and upcoming data checkpointsFutures‑implied probabilities from CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicated slimmer odds of near‑term cuts following the BLS release. Upcoming inflation prints and wage data will be key checkpoints for confirming a durable disinflation trend.

How resilient payrolls, unemployment, and wages shape policy pathResilient hiring and contained unemployment reduce perceived downside risk in the real economy, limiting the need for rapid easing. Fitch Ratings noted that recent employment strength has diminished those downside risks, reinforcing a patient policy stance.

Wage growth remains pivotal: slower gains would support disinflation, while re‑acceleration could complicate progress toward the 2% objective. Policymakers will consider both headline and core inflation alongside labor slack indicators.

Why CME FedWatch gauges market-implied cut probabilitiesThe FedWatch tool translates fed funds futures pricing into probabilities for upcoming policy meetings. As traders adjust contracts to new data, the gauge updates in near real time, offering a concise snapshot of market‑implied policy paths.

These readings are not commitments by the Federal Reserve; they reflect traders’ aggregated expectations. Shifts after labor or inflation surprises often signal how quickly markets think conditions could justify a change in the policy rate.

FAQ about U.S. jobs reportHow did CME FedWatch odds change after the latest employment data?The FedWatch tool showed slimmer near‑term cut odds following the stronger BLS report.

When is the next plausible window for rate cuts if the labor market stays firm?Mid‑2026, possibly July, remains more plausible if strength persists, as reported by ainvest.com.

DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.

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Tomasz Stanczak will step down at the end of February, with Bastian Aue taking over alongside Hsiao-Wei Wang.

Coinbase just posted the kind of earnings report that makes two groups of people sweat at the same time.

The first group is obvious, COIN shareholders who saw the company swing into a loss while crypto prices and activity cooled. Coinbase reported about revenue of roughly $1.78B for the quarter and a loss of -$2.49 per share, when analysts were looking for a profit.

Inside Coinbase’s own materials, the story looks like a business still producing cash, but taking a real hit on the bottom line, with a quarterly net loss of $667M and adjusted EBITDA of $566M.

The second group is less obvious: people who do not own COIN at all but still rely on Coinbase’s plumbing.

If you bought spot Bitcoin ETFs through a brokerage app because you wanted exposure without the headache of wallets and keys, most of that Bitcoin ultimately sits with Coinbase.

When these ETFs launched, Coinbase became custodian for the majority of the category, including major products like BlackRock’s IBIT, where Coinbase is referenced in the fund’s materials via Coinbase Prime relationships.

Over time, the market has piled into ETF wrappers hard enough that Bitcoin ETPs have been reported holding about 7% of Bitcoin’s maximum supply, around 1.5 million BTC in that snapshot.

So when Coinbase “misses,” the emotional question people ask is simple, is the custodian in trouble?

That question is understandable, the framing is messy, and the numbers that fly around on social media can get silly fast. The real way to look at it is practical. Custody is meant to be boring. Trading is meant to be cyclical. Earnings are where those two truths collide.

Coinbase missed, and the miss landed on the most sensitive nerveCoinbase’s quarter fell short because the part of the business that looks like a casino during bull markets stopped acting like one.

Coinbase’s transaction revenue dropped to about $983M, with consumer transaction revenue down sharply. That tracks with what a lot of regular people have felt over the last few months, fewer “everyone is trading” moments, fewer viral coins, less late-night adrenaline.

This is also where Coinbase has been trying to change its identity. Subscription and services revenue came in around $727M in the quarter, and stablecoin revenue growth was highlighted as a tailwind in the same reporting.

In Coinbase’s own shareholder letter, the company also dropped a near-real-time datapoint, about $420M of transaction revenue through Feb 10, paired with a warning not to extrapolate too aggressively.

That is the push and pull. The market wants Coinbase to become steadier. The market also punishes Coinbase when the quarter shows how dependent crypto activity still is on mood.

Even the conversation around Coinbase’s business model has split into tribes.

On X, MilkRoad leaned hard into the “financial infrastructure” narrative and pointed to a growing lineup of products and more stable revenue streams.

On the other side, skeptics framed the quarter as a sign that institutions are pulling back and that regulation could crimp stablecoin-related revenue.

Both groups are reacting to the same fact, crypto has entered a phase where flows and policy can matter more than vibes, and Coinbase sits close to both.

The custody question, what happens if Coinbase has a bad yearWhen people hear “Coinbase is the custodian,” they often picture Coinbase taking directional risk on Bitcoin itself. That is not how custody is supposed to work.

ETF Bitcoin is held on behalf of the funds. The fund shareholders own shares in the ETF, the ETF owns the Bitcoin, the custodian safeguards it under a regulated framework. The bigger operational risks in custody are things like controls, compliance, operational resiliency, and the ability to meet the obligations of a qualified custodian, not whether Coinbase has a weak trading quarter.

That said, the reason this is such a charged topic is trust. Custody is the foundation that lets a retirement account holder say, “I’m fine owning Bitcoin exposure, someone serious is holding the coins.”

So the real question for 2026 is less dramatic and more specific, does anything in this earnings report change the probability of custody failures, disruptions, or a strategic retreat from the custody business.

The short answer is no; nothing in the public earnings materials suggests a retreat.

If anything, Coinbase has spent years trying to expand into the parts of crypto that behave more like traditional market infrastructure. The company is still presenting itself as a platform that wants to handle more institutional activity, more payments, more prime services, and more global derivatives.

That derivatives point matters. Last year, Coinbase announced the acquisition of Deribit, which is a very direct bet on the part of crypto markets where professionals spend most of their time.

Derivatives also tend to keep humming when spot volumes cool, because hedging and positioning never fully stop. Custody becomes one spoke in a wheel, and earnings become less hostage to retail mood swings.

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A quieter signal, US institutions have been acting risk offIf you want to understand why Coinbase’s quarter felt heavy, look at where the marginal buyer has been.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $4.57 billion in outflows across Nov and Dec, and around $1.8 billion has already left since the start of 2026. That kind of flow regime changes the entire feel of the market.

This is where the custody angle connects to the earnings angle.

When ETFs are in steady inflow, the whole ecosystem feels like it is being institutionalized in real time.

When ETFs leak for weeks, it feels like the grown ups have left the room, even if the long term story stays intact.

Coinbase sits in the middle of that emotional swing because it is both a trading venue and a major piece of custody infrastructure.

The policy subplot, stablecoin rewards are becoming the bargaining chipCoinbase’s CEO is also telling you, in plain language, where a lot of the real risk sits.

In an X post, Brian Armstrong said Coinbase is focused on a market structure “win-win,” and highlighted that GENIUS passed six months ago and is being re-litigated, with direct impact on customers. He also described ongoing engagement with the White House and banks.

Separately, our coverage has framed the current market structure negotiations around a trade-off, progress on a broader bill, in exchange for restrictions on stablecoin rewards.

This matters for the earnings conversation because stablecoin-related revenue is one of the cleaner, steadier ways for Coinbase to grow without relying on retail trading frenzy. If reward-like features get boxed in, Coinbase can still build a stablecoin business, but the packaging changes, the growth curve changes, and the investor narrative changes.

That is why some commentators are treating this quarter as a policy story as much as an earnings story.

So is Coinbase “in trouble,” and what should ETF holders watch nextCoinbase is not a fragile startup anymore. It is a public company with a diversified set of businesses, and with a strategic position in the parts of crypto that institutions actually use. A weak quarter is still a weak quarter, and the market is allowed to be disappointed, but disappointment is different from structural breakdown.

For the person who holds a spot Bitcoin ETF and just wants to know if the custodian risk went up, here is a grounded checklist that tells you more than the EPS headline.

First, watch custody concentration and market structure, because concentration cuts both ways. It gives ETFs a clean operational backbone, and it creates a single point of reputational failure for the category.Second, watch policy headlines around stablecoins and rewards, because the growth mix shift at Coinbase depends on it. The White House, banks, and crypto industry triangle that Armstrong described in public is not theater, it is the business environment.Third, watch flows and the US premium, because they telegraph whether institutions are leaning back in. The premium gap coverage and ETF outflow reporting are signals that the tape has been in a risk off mood, and Coinbase’s next few quarters are going to reflect that.Finally, watch whether Coinbase can keep executing on its “everything app” ambition, because the long term path out of cyclical earnings is to own more of the stack. Coinbase is pushing into stock trading and prediction markets in its broader expansion story, and that is part of the same effort to widen what Coinbase is.The simplest way to say it is this.

Coinbase missing earnings looks scary because it reminds everyone how cyclical crypto can be. Coinbase holding a large share of ETF custody looks scary because it concentrates trust. Put those together and you get a perfect social media storm.

The reality is less cinematic and more important.

Coinbase is trying to become the kind of company whose worst quarters look survivable, because the business is built on rails and services that people keep using when trading slows.

That is the bet investors are pricing, and that is the bet ETF holders should care about, because boring custody only stays boring when the operator stays stable, compliant, and committed to the job.

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Bitcoin price is consolidating near $68,000 after recent volatility and a 30% drop over the past month. With $2.5 billion in BTC options expiring today and Brazil reintroducing a bold bill to acquire up to 1 million BTC, markets are showing both caution and long-term interest.

Data from Glassnode shows that Bitcoin is trading within a $65,000 to $73,000 range, with open interest in options markets rising. Despite the sideways price action, derivatives activity suggests traders are preparing for larger price swings.

Open Interest and Volatility Climb Ahead of Options ExpiryGlassnode reports that BTC options open interest has climbed back to 452,000 BTC, nearing its late Q4 2025 high. This comes after the December 26 expiry caused a sharp drop in positions. The recent increase suggests that traders are once again positioning for movement.

Source: Glassnode

At the same time, volatility expectations are rising. One-month and three-month at-the-money implied volatility have gained around 10 points. This trend shows traders are pricing in larger forward moves despite the current market calm.

Skew, a measure of option pricing between puts and calls, moved from 6% to 18% in just a month. According to Glassnode, this indicates strong demand for downside protection. Rather than betting on gains, traders are hedging against further declines.

Brazil Reintroduces Strategic Bitcoin Reserve ProposalOn February 13, 2026, Brazil’s Congress reintroduced Bill 4501/2024, which proposes the creation of a Strategic Sovereign Bitcoin Reserve (RESBit). If passed, it would authorize Brazil to acquire up to 1 million BTC over five years. This move would make Brazil the world’s largest state Bitcoin holder.

Federal Deputy Luiz Gastão confirmed that the proposal includes a $68 billion expenditure plan. The reserve would support economic resilience and monetary sovereignty. The bill suggests Bitcoin should also serve as collateral for Drex, Brazil’s central bank digital currency.

The bill expands on earlier versions, now including legal guarantees for self-custody, free asset transfer, and transaction privacy. If passed, it would also prevent any restrictions on transfers to user-controlled wallets.

Brazil’s Bitcoin Plan Includes Tax Payments and ETF HoldingsThe proposed law goes beyond direct Bitcoin purchases. It allows public institutions to accumulate BTC through taxes paid in Bitcoin, hold BTC-backed spot ETFs during emergencies, and authorize government companies to acquire and store Bitcoin.

Bill 4501/2024 states that the Brazilian central bank and Ministry of Finance will manage these assets. Semi-annual reports to Congress would provide updates on Bitcoin custody, performance, and usage. The Internal Revenue Service would have 12 months to build the infrastructure for this system.

Deputy Gastão said these actions are necessary to protect citizens’ purchasing power and prepare the economy for digital transformation. Congressman Eros Biondini, the bill’s original author, previously described RESBit as a move to reduce inflation risk and promote economic innovation.

Global Reserve Trends and BTC Price ReactionBrazil’s move aligns with a growing global trend. Other countries exploring Bitcoin reserves include Germany, France, and the Philippines. Germany’s AfD party, France’s lawmakers, and the Philippine Congress have all proposed national BTC strategies to counter inflation and strengthen sovereignty.

As Brazil’s proposal advances, Bitcoin traders are watching for how institutional demand could influence price recovery. While BTC remains below its $74,000 max pain level for options expiry, long-term holders may see renewed confidence if such national-level buying becomes law.

BTC’s current price near $68,000 keeps bulls cautious. Yet with Brazil potentially entering the market as a buyer of up to 1 million BTC, traders are positioning for possible upside. Combined with rising open interest, higher implied volatility, and sovereign demand, Bitcoin’s next move could break out of its current range.

The US economy is starting 2026 with an uncomfortable split-screen scenario that is complicating the outlook for Bitcoin's recovery towards $100,000.

While Wall Street credit pricing still looks calm, the “real economy” stress gauges are flashing late-cycle warning lights.

This disconnect matters for Bitcoin because its path to $100,000 is no longer just about crypto-native catalysts. It is increasingly about whether the next macro downdraft forces a liquidation phase that consumes the calendar year.

So, investors hoping for a straight line to six figures are facing a formidable obstacle: a consumer and corporate credit squeeze that threatens to drain liquidity from risk assets before the Federal Reserve can pivot to a rescue.

The consumer debt wallThe clearest red flag facing the market is the deteriorating state of the American consumer.

The New York Fed’s latest Household Debt and Credit report paints a grim picture of a populace leveraging up to maintain living standards. Total household debt rose to $18.8 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2025.

US Household Debt (Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York)This represents an increase of $191 billion in a single quarter, leaving aggregate balances about $4.6 trillion above the pre-pandemic level.

The sheer volume of debt is concerning, but the quality of that debt is where the real alarm bells are ringing.

The report shows that 12.7% of credit-card balances were 90 or more days delinquent in the fourth quarter of 2025.

This marks a stark return to the elevated stress levels seen in the early 2010s, suggesting that the post-pandemic savings buffer has been fully eroded for a significant portion of the population.

When drilling down into the demographics, the signal becomes even harder to ignore.

In New York Fed charts tracking transitions into serious delinquency (defined as 90 or more days late) for credit cards, younger cohorts are performing notably worse than older ones.

The 18–29 and 30–39 age groups are running materially higher delinquency rates than households aged 40 and above.

This is not just a sobering credit statistic. It serves as a forward indicator for discretionary spending and employment sensitivity.

Younger borrowers are more exposed to rent inflation, rely on revolving credit to bridge gaps, and experience higher income volatility.

These are the exact demographics that drive retail crypto adoption, and their financial distress could accelerate a market downturn as layoffs spread.

Corporate distress acceleratingWhile households are feeling the pinch, corporate distress is also rising.

Official bankruptcy filings in the US rose 11% in the 12-month period ending December 31, 2025, according to data from the Administrative Office of the US Courts.

However, the more market-moving development is the accelerating pace of large corporate cases.

Bloomberg has reported that at least six major companies sought court protection each week over a three-week period beginning Jan. 10.

This represents an intensity of corporate failure not seen since the early pandemic months, suggesting that the “higher for longer” rate environment is finally breaking zombie companies that survived on cheap capital.

Distressed-market commentary has highlighted even more alarming figures. Some observers have noted that 18 companies with liabilities exceeding $50 million filed for bankruptcy over a three-week period.

While this tally is best treated as an unofficial tracker metric rather than a standardized government series, it aligns with the broader trend of deteriorating corporate health.

The liquidity trapIn light of these events, the question for crypto investors is why these traditional finance problems would stop Bitcoin from tagging $100,000 in 2026.

The answer lies in the mechanics of a crisis. The “deepening crisis” phase typically first hits Bitcoin in the least flattering way: as a high-beta liquidity asset.

When credit tightens and defaults rise, investors usually prioritize cash. They shorten duration and sell liquid, volatile positions to cover margin calls or build defensive buffers.

For crypto, that liquidation impulse now runs through a very specific, highly reactive funnel: Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and other institutional products.

This dynamic is already visible in fund flows. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows of more than $600 million within the last two days alone, according to SoSo Value data.

Meanwhile, the selling pressure is not limited to a few days, as the 12 Bitcoin ETF products have recorded only two weeks of net inflows since the beginning of this year.

US Bitcoin ETFs Weekly Flows Since the Beginning of 2026 (Source: SoSo Value)In a benign macro backdrop, that kind of persistent outflow can still be absorbed by the market.

However, that kind of consistent selling could become reflexive in a deteriorating macro backdrop.

In this case, redemptions pressure the price, price weakness triggers further de-risking models, and volatility itself becomes a reason for risk managers to reduce exposure further.

Policy paralysisMeanwhile, Bitcoin bulls counter that crises eventually attract policy support, and the flagship digital asset has historically responded explosively when liquidity conditions turn favorable.

However, the timing for 2026 is complicated by the Federal Reserve not yet being in “panic mode.”

The central bank held the policy rate at a range of 3.5%–3.75% at its January meeting. While this is lower than the peak rates of previous years, it remains restrictive enough to pressure borrowers.

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At the same time, the New York Fed has been conducting “reserve management” purchases. They are buying about $40 billion per month in Treasury bills and short-dated government bonds through mid-April.

These purchases are explicitly framed as technical operations rather than crisis-era quantitative easing.

If financial stress worsens materially, that technical line can blur quickly in markets’ minds. Still, the key for Bitcoin is timing.

The market often sells first and only rallies later when easing is unmistakable. If the Fed waits for credit spreads to blow out before cutting aggressively, Bitcoin could suffer a significant drawdown before the liquidity rescue arrives.

Downside targets and revised expectationsThat timing risk is exactly why some major bank analysts are urging caution.

Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick has warned that crypto could see “one final wave” of selling pressure first. He flagged downside risks toward $50,000 for BTC, while arguing that this level represents “buy zones” for a later recovery.

Notably, data from CryptoQuant indicate that Bitcoin’s ultimate bear-market bottom is around $55,000.

Bitcoin Realized Price (Source: CryptoQuant)Meanwhile, Kendrick also cut his end-of-year BTC target to $100,000 (down from $150,000).

According to him, the message is not “perma-bearish,” but rather a recognition that the path to higher prices likely runs through a significant drawdown first.

Essentially, the narrative that BTC could reach $100,000 this year is weakened by a deepening US financial squeeze that is compressing the runway.

If Bitcoin spends the next few months digesting a macro-driven deleveraging phase, then the “reflation rally” window shifts later into 2026.

In this case, hitting $100,000 becomes less about whether BTC can rally and more about whether there is enough time left in the year to do so after the washout.

Three paths for Bitcoin’s $100,000 questionA clean way to frame the year ahead is a three-case scenario model that keeps the focus on timing.

ScenarioMacro setupFlow and positioning signalTypical BTC pathWhat it implies for $100,000 in 2026Base case (soft landing, messy credit)Delinquencies rise, but do not cascade into a jobs shock, corporate stress stays containedETF outflows stabilize after recent net negatives (ETF daily prints of -$276.3M on Feb. 11 and -$410.2M on Feb. 12 are not repeated)Wide range trading with sharper rallies and pullbacksLate-year coin flip rather than a base expectationHard landing (defaults → jobs → spreads)Corporate failures and consumer strain feed into unemployment, spreads widen from ~2.84%Forced selling dominates, CoinShares-style outflows remain heavy (recently $1.7B weekly)Downside first, BTC can plausibly test $50,000Unlikely to hit $100,000 in-calendar-year because the washout consumes timeFast pivot (stress forces easing)Data deteriorates quickly enough to trigger faster cuts from 3.5%–3.75% and more visible liquidity supportOutflows slow materially and then flip, ETF wrapper turns from a drag into support“Dump first, then rip,” often requires a capitulation lowPossible, but still timing-dependent, a rally may arrive later after a low is setThe base case is a soft landing with messy credit in which delinquencies rise but do not cascade into a jobs shock.

Here, corporate distress remains meaningful but contained and ETF flows stabilize after a period of outflows.

In that world, Bitcoin can trade in a wide range, and $100,000 becomes a late-year coin flip rather than a base expectation. The upside is possible, but it depends on the market regaining confidence before the calendar runs out.

The “hard landing” scenario involves corporate failures and consumer strain feeding into unemployment. Spreads would widen, and forced selling would dominate.

In that case, Bitcoin can plausibly reach the downside zone Kendrick flagged before any durable rally begins. A later recovery may still occur, but $100,000 in calendar year looks unlikely because the washout phase consumes the period when momentum would normally build.

The third scenario is a “fast pivot,” where data deteriorates quickly enough to trigger faster cuts and more visible liquidity support. That can produce a 2020-style sequence of a dump first, followed by a rip, but it still may require a capitulation low before the upside.

The bottom line is that macro stress can cut both ways. It can eventually justify easier policy and better liquidity conditions, which have historically supported Bitcoin.

However, that same stress can prevent Bitcoin from reaching $100,000 on schedule, as the first phase of a deepening squeeze is often the least favorable for crypto.

Unless policy support arrives early enough, and ETF flows flip back to sustained inflows, the path of least resistance in early 2026 looks more like downside and turbulence first.

So, a $100,000 print becomes less about whether Bitcoin can rally, and more about whether the market gets through the washout fast enough for the rally to fit inside the year.

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In brief U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of $410 million Thursday, with six of the past 10 days seeing negative flows Outflows were led by BlackRock's IBIT, which shed $157.6 million. Capital is rotating into CME derivatives rather than exiting crypto entirely, analysts noted, while warning of "head-fake rallies" through mid-2026 until credit markets reprice risk. Spot Bitcoin ETFs bled $410.4 million on Thursday, extending a volatile stretch of outflows as institutional investors reposition against a murky macro backdrop.

BlackRock's IBIT led the exodus with $157.6 million in outflows, followed by Fidelity's FBTC at $104.1 million and Grayscale's GBTC at $59.1 million, per data from SoSoValue. The selling brings the number of negative days in the past two weeks up to six for the products, which have now shed nearly $1.5 billion over that span.

The erratic flow pattern suggests that institutional conviction is wavering, analysts told Decrypt, with retail traders left to navigate a market that appears directionless despite significant daily volume.

"On one side, Kevin's Fed nomination has lowered near-term rate cut expectations, sparking rapid repricing in equities, bonds, and crypto," Christophe Diserens, chief wealth officer at SwissBorg, told Decrypt. "Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed index hit extreme fear levels unseen since 2023, with negative momentum fueled by ongoing bear market narratives on social media."

A structural tug-of-warOn the other side, the long-term outlook remains positive, according to Diserens, who added that “adoption keeps expanding,” with JPMorgan projecting a $266,000 Bitcoin target.

This tension between “short-term panic and long-term optimism” is driving the volatility in daily ETF flows, according to the SwissBorg analyst.

The wild swings are not random—they reflect a structural tug-of-war beneath the surface, Nick Motz, CEO of ORQO Group and CIO of Soil, told Decrypt. "You've got institutions that got in late 2025 now taking profits, and on the other side, there's a messy short-covering cycle playing out in real time,” he said.

Motz explained that as Bitcoin hovers around the $75,000 range—roughly where mining production costs sit—institutional algos are kicking off automated liquidations tied to hawkish Federal Reserve expectations. The result is large outflows from certain ETFs, but the analyst noted that much of that capital isn't leaving crypto entirely.

Instead, he argued, "it's shifting into more compliant derivatives channels like the CME." That results in, "a choppy, directionless tape that honestly looks broken to most retail traders.” Motz referred to the situation as a “liquidity mirage,” in which, “there's activity everywhere but no real direction, and it's messing with sentiment badly."

Volatility set to continueMotz expects the volatility to persist through at least the first half of 2026, especially with the recent drop burning out 2025's euphoria. “But the structural reflation trade everyone's waiting on probably doesn't kick in until the second half of 2026," he said.

The "reflation trade" refers to a widespread, consensus-driven investment strategy that bets on a sustained period of economic growth and rising prices, driven by policy shifts rather than just temporary recovery.

However, the macro backdrop offers little relief at the current stage, the Soil analyst added, explaining that the global M2 money supply growth has flatlined, and high-yield credit spreads are starting to creep wider, which is a textbook liquidity drain for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Instead, Motz warned to watch out for “head-fake rallies,” which are “sharp moves up that look convincing but are really just trapping late buyers before the next leg down.”

"The market probably doesn't find a real floor until credit markets finish repricing risk, which honestly could take us into summer,” he said. “So if you're expecting resolution anytime soon... I wouldn't hold my breath. Choppy, volatile, sideways action is the base case for a while."

Users on prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, remain predominantly bearish on Bitcoin’s outlook, placing a 61% chance on its next move taking it to $55,000 rather than $84,000—up more than 10% from the start of the week.

Bitcoin has been stuck trading between the $62,000 and $71,000 range since early February, with no signs of a breakout. Over the past 24 hours, it is down 0.6%, and is trading at around $67,365, according to CoinGecko data.

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TL;DR

TokenEscrow Upgrade: XRPL’s XLS‑85 amendment expands escrow beyond XRP, enabling issued tokens like RLUSD, IOUs, and tokenized assets to be locked under protocol‑level conditions. Institutional DeFi Shift: XRP contributor Vet says the upgrade transforms XRPL into an opportunity market, supporting institutional‑grade workflows without external smart contracts or custodians. TradFi Impact: The new functionality enables automated OTC deals, vesting schedules, and compliance‑ready structures, offering traditional finance players a native mechanism for secure asset coordination.
XRPL has entered what XRP contributor Vet calls an opportunity market, driven by the activation of the XLS‑85 TokenEscrow amendment. The upgrade marks a structural shift for the network, expanding escrow functionality beyond XRP and enabling issued assets such as stablecoins, IOUs, and tokenized instruments to operate under verifiable on‑chain conditions. For developers and institutions, this change introduces a more flexible environment for building financial tools that rely on predictable, protocol‑level asset controls.

It never was so easy to be optimistic.

We are literally upgrading TradFi with XRP DeFi and best in class payment infrastructure.

Its the opportunity market.

— Vet (@Vet_X0) February 12, 2026

TokenEscrow Expands XRPL Beyond Single‑Asset Escrow Before XLS‑85, only XRP could be locked in escrow. With the amendment now live at ledger #102204929, XRPL allows any IOU or Multi‑Purpose Token to be time‑locked, condition‑locked, or coordinated across multiple parties. Vet describes this as a foundational moment, transforming XRPL from a single‑asset system into a multitoken infrastructure capable of supporting stablecoins like RLUSD, meme coins, and tokenized financial instruments. The shift is technical, but its implications are immediately practical for builders seeking predictable settlement behavior.

A New Foundation for Institutional‑Grade DeFi The amendment enables workflows that previously required external smart contracts or custodial intermediaries. By embedding escrow logic directly into the protocol, XRPL now supports decentralized alternatives to traditional settlement flows. Vet emphasizes that optimism in this environment comes from protocol upgrades rather than speculation, positioning XRPL as a market where real financial resources can be deployed with confidence. This aligns with the growing interest in institutional‑grade DeFi tools that prioritize reliability and compliance.

Unlocking Automated Financial Structures Escrow on XRPL allows assets to be locked until a specific time or until a cryptographic condition is met. With XLS‑85, this applies to issued tokens like RLUSD, meme coins, and tokenized physical assets. These capabilities open the door to automated OTC deals, vesting schedules, and compliance‑embedded structures without centralized escrow agents. The amendment is not designed as a flashy feature; instead, it serves as core infrastructure for more advanced financial coordination.

TradFi Implications and Market Context For traditional finance participants experimenting with stablecoins or tokenized treasuries, XLS‑85 removes a key barrier to smart custodial workflows. It offers a native mechanism for secure asset handling without smart contracts. Meanwhile, XRP trades at $1.36, down more than 2%, reflecting broader market movement rather than the long‑term significance of the upgrade.

The Brazilian Congress has reintroduced bill 4501of 2024, proposing the acquisition of up to 1 million BTC for Brazil’s strategic Bitcoin reserve. The bill significantly expands the scope of the previous document, establishing that RESbit (Strategic Sovereign Bitcoin Reserve) will accumulate the BTC over 5 years.

Initially, the bill proposed spending up to 5% of Brazil’s foreign reserves to diversify the national treasury’s assets with an asset immune to inflation. The asset should also be immune from third-party confiscation, which the country’s central bank will manage as part of the national treasury. 

Additionally, the bill proposes a range of changes, including incentivizing company Bitcoin holdings and mining, accepting Bitcoin payments for federal taxes, and banning the sale of Bitcoin seized by judicial authorities.

It also establishes that the reserve should serve as an asset diversification mechanism, reducing reliance on traditional assets. 

Federal Deputy says bill proposes $68B expenditure for 1M BTC Luiz Gastão, a Federal Deputy for the state of Ceará, emphasizes that the bill will include spending at least $68 billion for the 1 million BTC acquisition plan if approved by the necessary commissions and passed by the Brazilian Congress. The BTC stash would exceed the reserves of nations like the U.S. and China. 

Deputy Gastão also stresses that the bill guarantees fundamental rights related to the use and custody of digital assets. These include the right to self-custody, the free transfer of assets, and the confidentiality of transactions, except when express authorization or a specific court order is issued.

However, it faces conflict with current central bank regulations, which do not yet recognize BTC as a reserve asset. Any administrative action restricting transfers to user-controlled wallets shall also be declared null and void.  

According to Gastão, these guarantees are essential to stimulate investment, consolidate an innovative economic ecosystem, and create legal certainty. The text also argues that protecting individual autonomy in the digital environment is compatible with the goals of preserving public funds and strengthening the population’s purchasing power. 

Meanwhile, in addition to direct BTC purchases, the bill authorizes other forms of accumulation, such as collecting taxes paid in Bitcoin, temporarily holding shares of BTC-backed spot ETFs in emergencies, and even hoarding by public companies. 

On the other hand, the management of these assets would be divided between Brazil’s central bank and the Ministry of Finance. The Internal Revenue Service would have 12 months after the law is enacted to create the necessary technological infrastructure.

The next steps include analysis by the Finance and Taxation Committee, the Constitution and Justice Committee, and the Science, Technology, and Innovation Committee.

Bill proposes using Bitcoin as Drex collateral Bill 4501/2024 further proposes that Bitcoin serve as collateral for the digital real (Drex), the Brazilian central bank’s digital currency. The law, if enacted, positions Bitcoin as both an investment and a tool for monetary sovereignty. 

Meanwhile, the author of the bill, Congressman Eros Biondini (PL-MG), who has also been advocating for the crypto market in Congress, recognizes the scarcity and security properties of the Bitcoin network. He considers these characteristics superior or complementary to traditional gold and dollar reserves.

Additionally, the Brazilian central bank would be required to publish semi-annual reports about the project to the National Congress. The documents will detail the state-owned portfolio’s custody, transactions, and performance. 

There are also plans to partner with international organizations to exchange best-practice experiences. Article 6 addresses the accountability of RESBit managers, providing for administrative and criminal sanctions for mismanagement or non-compliance with the law’s regulations, including the obligation to reimburse public funds.

The Executive Branch must carry out the regulation of the future law within 180 days of its publication.

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Bitcoin’s key indicators went bearish. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost dropped a warning on February 13 that pretty much every major on-chain metric for Bitcoin is flashing red signals right now.

The data comes from a heatmap tracking ten different network measurements, and it’s not looking good for bulls. MVRV Z-Score measures how profitable investors are overall, while Trader Realized Price and Trader On-chain Profit Margin focus on short-term traders’ wins and losses. All of them show red. Darkfrost said this makes new Bitcoin highs unlikely anytime soon. The bearish readings cover various network dimensions, from investor profitability to trading momentum. Each metric tells part of the story about where Bitcoin stands right now.

Things got worse fast.

The red signals got stronger when Bitcoin’s price started falling, but some indicators already turned bearish before the drop hit. Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse and CryptoQuant Network Activity Index went red early in 2025. The Flow Pulse tracks transactions between spot and derivatives exchanges, and it shows there’s basically no speculative momentum happening. Network Activity Index measures transaction volume on Bitcoin’s blockchain, and it’s been mostly bearish since late 2024.

Most other indicators flipped red after November 2025’s price drop. Trader On-Chain Profit Margin held out the longest, staying positive through January’s brief recovery before finally turning bearish during the latest fall.

Short-term Bitcoin holders are selling at losses now. CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn highlighted this trend in another X post, showing that investors who bought within the last 155 days are moving tokens to exchanges. That’s usually what happens when people want to sell. The increase in loss deposits to exchanges suggests these investors are giving up, which analysts call capitulation.

Bitcoin trades around $65,300 right now. That’s down more than 2% over the past week.

CryptoQuant’s data shows the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse stayed red since the first half of 2025, and that’s a big deal. Without speculative interest flowing between exchanges, it’s hard to see how momentum shifts. The metric tracks Bitcoin movement between spot and derivatives platforms, so when it stays bearish, traders aren’t really betting on big moves up or down.

The Network Activity Index hasn’t shown much bullish activity since leaving high levels in late 2024. Sure, there are occasional spikes, but transaction volumes on Bitcoin’s blockchain didn’t return to previous highs. Network activity staying flat shows the broader market’s hesitation, according to analysts watching these numbers. See also: Monero Slides Below Key Support as.

Maartunn’s observations about short-term holders fit with what everyone else sees. These investors bought Bitcoin within 155 days and now they’re selling at losses. Capitulation behavior like this often signals market bottoms, but it also means more selling pressure as holders move assets to exchanges.

Bitcoin’s current price of roughly $65,300 reflects cautious market sentiment. Traders and analysts keep watching these on-chain indicators, but the lack of bullish signals continues weighing on everyone’s mood. The market seems stuck in waiting mode.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju noted on February 13 that shifts in on-chain metrics can serve as early warning signs. He said traders need careful analysis of these indicators to navigate ongoing market uncertainty. The CEO didn’t specify exactly what traders should look for next.

Market participants stay cautious while Bitcoin hovers around $65,300. The sustained red signals across key metrics suggest traders won’t commit to bullish positions yet. Trading volumes on major exchanges remain subdued, reflecting this hesitant sentiment.

But there’s more context here. Glassnode reported on February 12 that Bitcoin’s on-chain activity shows declining new addresses. New Bitcoin addresses dropped about 15% compared to the previous month, suggesting waning interest among new investors at current price levels.

Binance saw Bitcoin futures trading volume fall 20% month-over-month as of February 10. That decline in trading activity on one of the largest crypto exchanges highlights the broader market’s reluctance to engage in significant speculative trading right now. Related coverage: Bitcoin ETF Inflows Reverse with 6.

JP Morgan analysts pointed out in a February 11 client note that Bitcoin’s recent price movements came from macroeconomic factors rather than internal crypto market dynamics. They said Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional financial markets remains strong, particularly given recent economic data releases. The bank didn’t provide specific correlation numbers.

Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest published a contrasting view on February 9. ARK’s report said short-term indicators are bearish, but the long-term outlook for Bitcoin stays positive. ARK’s analysis suggests that despite current volatility, Bitcoin’s fundamentals like network security and institutional adoption continue strengthening. The firm acknowledged challenges from current on-chain metrics but didn’t back down from its bullish long-term stance.

The lack of speculative activity could persist unless market dynamics change significantly. With Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse and Network Activity Index staying bearish, the market seems stuck in a holding pattern. Traders are waiting for something to alter the current trajectory, but that catalyst isn’t clear yet.

Historical precedent shows similar metric clusters preceded major Bitcoin corrections in 2022 and 2018. During those periods, recovery took 3-6 months after all ten indicators simultaneously flashed red signals.

Coinbase reported a 35% drop in retail trading activity during the first week of February, while institutional Bitcoin purchases through Grayscale and BlackRock ETFs declined 40% compared to January levels. Meanwhile, Bitcoin mining difficulty adjusted downward by 2.1% on February 8, the first negative adjustment since December 2024.

Post Views: 1

Published: Feb 13, 2026 at 13:58

While the broader market is paralyzed by the "Warsh Shock" and a strengthening U.S. Dollar, Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) has effectively become the "buyer of last resort" for the entire corporate world.

According to a landmark report released on February 12, 2026, Michael Saylor’s firm accounted for a staggering 97.5% of all corporate Bitcoin acquisitions over the past month. This dominance comes as the company continues to execute its massive $21 billion "ATM" (At-The-Market) equity offering to fund its aggressive "Orange" treasury strategy.

The "NAV discount" trap Despite this relentless accumulation, the market is signaling a warning. For the first time in the current cycle, Strategy Inc.’s stock is trading at a significant discount (approx. 0.87x) to its Net Asset Value (NAV). Traditionally, the stock traded at a premium, allowing the company to issue shares and buy Bitcoin "accretively."

Now, with the stock trading below the value of its BTC holdings, the "perpetual growth machine" is under immense pressure. Analysts are watching the $77,000 price level—identified by JPMorgan this morning as a critical support zone—to see if the company can maintain its leverage without triggering a broader institutional panic.

The $6 billion government shadow Adding to the tension is the news that the U.S. government’s own "de facto" reserve — the 127,271 BTC seized from the Prince Group — has lost $6 billion in potential value since its peak.

This loss is fueling a heated debate in Washington over the Clarity Act, as victims of crypto scams demand the government liquidate the assets rather than holding them in a Strategic Reserve while prices slide. For Strategy Inc., the goal is to outlast this volatility, betting that their 713,502 BTC war chest will eventually become the "pristine collateral" of a new global financial system, regardless of the short-term bloodbath.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics just released the January 2026 Consumer Price Index, and inflation came in lower than expected. Consumer prices rose 2.4% on an annual basis, below the 2.5% that economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast. The monthly increase was 0.2%, again below the expected 0.3%.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, came in at 2.5% year-over-year, matching forecasts. This is a clear improvement from December’s numbers, where headline inflation sat at 2.7% and core at 2.6%.

The report was delayed due to the brief government shutdown earlier this month.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $67,210, up 0.26% in the past hour. Ethereum is at $1,968, up 0.48%. The full price impact remains to be seen.

What This Means for the Fed and Crypto MarketsBitcoin has been reacting sharply to inflation data in recent months. The reason is straightforward. CPI shapes expectations around Federal Reserve rate cuts, and rate expectations directly affect liquidity in markets.

When December’s hotter CPI print came in, Bitcoin dropped between 5% and 8%. A softer reading in November supported a 2% to 3% rebound in BTC. This pattern shows how closely crypto tracks these reports now.

Before today’s release, CME FedWatch showed a 90.3% chance that the Fed would hold rates steady at its next meeting. A cooler print like this one could push rate cut expectations forward, but the Fed does not meet again until March.

Worth noting, the US has now gone six straight years with inflation above the Fed’s 2% target. One better month does not change that.

Food Prices and Jobs Data Add to the PictureNot everything is improving. Food prices rose 2.9% year-over-year in January, with coffee and beef driving much of that increase.

On the jobs side, data released earlier this week showed the US added just 181,000 jobs across 2025.

Nicole Bachaud, an economist, said, “The 181,000 jobs that were added across 2025 really starkly show how challenging the labor market was and how little movement on either side there really has been.”

The softer CPI gives the Fed more room, but with sticky food prices and a slow labor market, the bigger picture is still mixed. Bitcoin traders will be watching closely over the next few hours.

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It is Friday, Feb. 13, and in today’s top stories XRP gains stronger exchange depth with a new Binance listing, Bitcoin Cash extends its dominance among the top 10 tokens amid a revived “Bitcoin without Saylor” narrative and Charles Hoskinson outlines values-based criteria as Cardano’s privacy chain, Midnight, enters the final launch stage.

TL;DR

Binance opens XRP/U spot trading, adding the United Stables liquidity layer.Bitcoin Cash holds a $10.55 billion market cap and sustains its top 10 ranking.Hoskinson calls for ethics-driven blockchain development as Cardano ecosystem prepares Midnight launch.Binance expands stablecoin options for XRP with XRP/U pair listingAccording to a new X post, Binance launched a new XRP/U trading pair, introducing United Stables (U) as a new liquidity layer for XRP. 

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Binance remains one of the largest spot markets for XRP, according to CoinMarketCap data, with the XRP/USDT pair generating $154,548,191 in recent 24-hour volume. Even the USDC pair there worth $52,776,085 in daily volume is more than most other exchanges have in main USDT or USD pairs. 

It is an interesting detail that Korean crypto exchanges like Upbit and Bithumb have the equivalent of $185,369,440 and $154,892,350, respectively, for XRP/KRW pairs." 

United Stables (U), listed on Binance in January 2026, is a meta-stablecoin backed by a reserve model accepting USDT, USDC and USD1. As the first native stablecoin on BNB Chain using a multiasset reserve structure, it aims to standardize settlement and liquidity flows across DeFi, CEXes and payments rails. 

XRP’s integration into the U trading pair lineup reflects increasing focus on stablecoin-agnostic trading and cross-reserve fungibility.

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Bitcoin Cash solidifies top 10 status as "Bitcoin without Saylor" narrative gains steamWhile Binance continues to expand the market share for XRP and U, Bitcoin Cash, in its own lane, is holding a position in the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on CoinMarketCap, with a figure of $10,553,475,202 at the time of writing. After a breakthrough earlier this year and dethroning Cardano (ADA), BCH’s presence in the top 10 has drawn renewed attention to this once-forgotten Bitcoin fork. 

Now that its top 10 status appears sustainable, public figures like “thedefivillain” have labeled it “Bitcoin without Saylor” in an attempt to frame its relative strength within a broader narrative.

Source: CoinMarketCapIf that is an expression of the opinion that Saylor and the Bitcoin Standard he implemented at Strategy are toxic to Bitcoin, or an attempt to explain why Bitcoin Cash may be superior to its original counterpart is open for debate. One could say that both of these explanations have a right to life. The fact is, the crypto community seems open to finding an idea within the digital assets space that will not have such a heavy entity tied to it. 

It is no surprise really, considering that Bitcoin's success was mostly attributed to the disappearance of its creator, known as Satoshi Nakamoto, and with Saylor absorbing 3.4% supply of the cryptocurrency and being the main topic of almost all discussions around BTC, this may spoil the appeal for some. 

All things considered, some may attribute the resilience of Bitcoin Cash to its wide presence in the online casino and gaming sectors. Others may argue that its strength comes from mining being more profitable than Bitcoin. Another group of people may call it "Bitcoin without Saylor." The truth, one may argue, lies in the price chart, while narratives and news tend to be constructed afterward.

Hoskinson defines "anti-cynicism" criteria as Cardano's Midnight prepares March launchXRP and BCH stories aside, Charles Hoskinson used social media this Friday to talk about a values-driven framework for development as the Cardano creator seems to be tired of "pay to play." For him, meaningful work should not rely on such structures and should focus on building fundamentally good and hopeful systems. These thoughts of Hoskinson's appear to be a reaction to a "lot of cynicism" and a lack of empathy in the crypto industry.

Beyond all the talk, there are real steps being taken to make that happen. Previously this week, Hoskinson confirmed that Midnight, a blockchain focused on privacy and built on Cardano, will launch in the last week of March 2026.

NIGHT/USD by TradingViewMidnight's architecture is all about making sure transactions are private by default, and it only discloses the information it needs to through something called zero-knowledge proofs. The goal is to find a middle ground between privacy and compliance, avoiding the simple choice of privacy vs. compliance.

So, the "anti-cynicism" approach lines up with real-world action, like privacy infrastructure, simulation tools, cross-chain expansion and ecosystem integration. Whether this approach will lead to capital inflows depends on how well it is adopted after launch, not just on the overall Cardano ecosystem's position on the matter.

Crypto market outlook: Key levels to watch for BTC, ADA, XRPThis week’s price action was driven mostly by macro data, with NFP and CPI releases setting the tone across risk assets, and digital ones especially. Crypto responded with brutal sell-offs, random pumps, extreme fear and more uncertainty. 

Though the infrastructure and environment around the digital assets market continues to evolve, with new CFTC assembling 35 key figures of the market for a new advisory panel.

Key levels to watch:

Bitcoin (BTC): BTC is trading near $67,069 after rebounding from a washout to $60,000. Immediate resistance now sits around $72,000. On the downside, $64,000 acts as short-term support, while a loss of that level would reopen downside risk toward the $60,000 liquidity pocket. 

XRP: XRP is currently trading near $1.365 on the daily time frame. After the early February capitulation wick toward the $1.10-$1.15 zone, the price rebounded but remained structurally below prior consolidation ranges. Immediate resistance is now located at $1.50. On the downside, $1.30-$1.32 serves as short-term support. A loss of that area reopens risk toward the February low near $1.10.

Cardano (ADA): ADA is currently trading near $0.2627 after prolonged downside pressure. Immediate resistance is located at $0.30, followed by a broader supply zone near $0.35. On the downside, $0.25 is the key structural support. A decisive reclamation of $0.30 would signal short-term recovery potential ahead of the late-March Midnight launch, while continued compression below that threshold keeps momentum neutral to weak.

Overall, Bitcoin remains the directional anchor. As long as BTC holds above $64,000, altcoin stabilization remains possible. A breakdown below that level would likely pressure the ADA and XRP support zones in tandem.

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As most of the crypto market retests crucial levels, Ethereum (ETH) is attempting to reclaim a major horizontal area. Some market observers have warned that cryptocurrency could fall to new lows if the price doesn’t bounce soon.

Ethereum Weekly Close On Sight On Thursday, Ethereum dropped 1.4% to retest a key area for the second consecutive day. After hitting a 10-month low of $1,747, the King of Altcoins bounced more than 15% to trade between $2,000 and $2,150 over the past few days.

However, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap failed to hold the crucial $2,000 horizontal barrier on Wednesday and tested the $1,900 mark for the first time in a week.

After attempting to reclaim the key psychological level in the early hours of Thursday, Ethereum was rejected toward the recent lows, briefly falling below it. Analyst Ted Pillows highlighted the importance of ETH’s current zone, as it has previously triggered major moves.

To him, if the altcoin fails to reclaim the $2,000 area in the coming days, a full retrace toward the recent lows should be expected soon. Similarly, market observer Crypto Busy noted that the cryptocurrency is currently trading above a major long-term support.

According to the post, the recent correction has sent Ethereum toward a three-year rising support line, which “will decide the next big move.” The analyst warned that “If the trendline breaks with strong weekly closes below $1,900, the structure weakens.”

Therefore, ETH must hold its current levels in the coming days to avoid a weekly close below this level. Otherwise, its price could drop “into the next liquidity pockets around $1,600 and possibly $1,300, where the next historical support zones exist.”

Is ETH’s ‘Real’ Bull Market Two Years Away? Trader AlejandroXBT shared a potential macro-outlook for Ethereum that suggests the cryptocurrency could still see another major shakeout:

My thesis is that the major bullish move that began around 2019–2020 has transitioned into a large and prolonged macro correction, and that Ethereum has been consolidating within this broader corrective structure ever since.

He outlined four phases for the macro structure: the pump, the correction, the shakeout, and the moon. The initial phase, which occurred between 2019 and 2021, marked “the true impulsive bullish move,” with strong trend expansion and increasing momentum.

ETH macro structure breakdown. Source: AlejandroXBT on X According to the market observer, the strong rally that followed the 2022 bear market appears to be a “counter-trend move within a broader corrective range” rather than a renewed bull market and the start of a new long-term cycle.

As he explained, ETH’s range-bound behavior signals distribution and consolidation instead of continuation. “From this perspective, the apparent bull market that developed within the correction can be interpreted as a dead cat bounce, a technically strong bounce occurring inside a larger corrective structure,” he affirmed.

Therefore, the current macro structure would suggest that a final shakeout phase could “still be required to fully reset sentiment and liquidity before Ethereum can transition into a new impulsive bullish cycle.”

Based on this, the trader anticipated a final liquidity-driven move to the downside in the coming months, followed by “the moon” phase, potentially next year, when “the structure suggests the conditions for a true long-term bullish continuation, with price discovery and expansion well beyond previous highs.”

Ethereum’s performance in the one-week chart. Source: ETHUSDT on TradingView Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

Shiba Inu price remains under pressure inside a descending channel, with resistance at $0.0000062 and support near $0.0000057.

Newton Gitonga2 min read

13 February 2026, 02:02 PM

Shiba Inu remains under pressure as a consistent pattern of lower highs continues to dictate its short-term price action. The token recently bounced above the $0.000006 level but failed to sustain momentum. Analysts warn that SHIB’s structure remains bearish, with further downside likely unless key resistance levels are reclaimed. Broader financial market declines have added to selling pressure, limiting the cryptocurrency’s recovery potential.

SHIB Descending Channel Restrains Price ActionVeteran trader GainMuse highlighted that Shiba Inu is trading inside a descending channel, reinforcing the bearish trend. “The repeated formation of lower highs reflects the market’s inability to sustain upside momentum,” the analyst said. SHIB recently rallied from $0.0000055 to around $0.0000064, but the rebound stalled at local resistance. GainMuse warned that if momentum fades, SHIB could drop toward the lower boundary of the channel, with immediate support near $0.0000057.

Resistance remains critical at $0.0000062. GainMuse noted that as long as SHIB trades below this level, downside risks persist. A breakdown below support could accelerate losses, potentially pushing the token toward $0.000005, which it touched during last week’s market sell-off. Analysts observe that the current pattern demonstrates persistent selling pressure and a lack of bullish control.

Market Sell-Off Adds PressureShiba Inu’s recent struggles coincided with broader financial market declines. The global markets lost approximately $3.6 trillion in two hours, with the cryptocurrency sector shedding around $70 billion. Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, absorbed much of the losses, yet SHIB also declined to $0.000005939 before rebounding slightly above $0.000006.

Analysts suggest that the bearish trend will remain until SHIB breaks above the descending trendline. Sustained momentum above $0.0000062 could signal a short-term trend shift and reduce downside risk. For now, Shiba Inu continues to face technical pressure, with its price confined by resistance and channel boundaries that define the current market structure.

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Latest Shiba Inu News Today (SHIB)

TLDR XRP ETFs saw a daily outflow of $6.42 million, with cumulative inflows at $1.22 billion. XRPC ETF reported a $1.44M net inflow, but its market price declined by 2.25%. XRP ETF experienced a daily drop of 2.20% and a $303.92K net inflow. XRPZ ETF saw a 2.00% drop in market price, with $737.47K in daily inflows. The GXRP ETF recorded an $8.91M outflow, with a 2.24% drop in market price. As of February 12, the daily total net inflow for XRP ETFs recorded a loss of $6.42 million. According to SoSoValue, the cumulative total net inflow remains positive at $1.22 billion. The total value traded stands at $12.52 million, showing a relatively low trading volume for the day. Total net assets for the XRP ETFs are valued at $970.66 million, representing 1.18% of the XRP market cap.

XRPC, XRPZ, and XRP ETFs Record Inflows Among individual XRP ETFs, the XRPC ETF, listed on NASDAQ and sponsored by Canary, saw a slight 0.61% decline. It reported a 1-day net inflow of $1.44 million and a cumulative net inflow of $412.60 million. The ETF’s net assets stand at $259.50 million, with an XRP share of 0.32%. Its market price is $14.36, showing a 2.25% daily decline.

Source: SoSoValue (XRP ETFs) The XRP ETF, listed on the NYSE and sponsored by Bitwise, experienced a daily decrease of 2.20%. It saw a daily net inflow of $303.92 thousand and has a cumulative net inflow of $359.29 million. Its net assets stand at $247.85 million, representing 0.30% of XRP’s market share. The market price dropped to $15.13.

The XRPZ ETF, listed on the NYSE and sponsored by Franklin, experienced a 0.40% drop in value. It reported a daily inflow of $737.47 thousand with a cumulative net inflow of $326.80 million. Its net assets stand at $221.98 million, accounting for 0.27% of XRP’s market share. The ETF’s market price fell by 2.00% to $14.69.

GXRP Losses $8.91 as TOXR ETF Holds Stable The TOXR ETF, listed on the CBOE and sponsored by 21Shares, saw a daily decline of 2.23%, with no changes in its flow for the day. It has net assets totaling $166.91 million, holding 0.20% of XRP’s market share.

Lastly, the GXRP ETF, listed on the NYSE and sponsored by Grayscale, recorded a 2.24% drop, with a daily net outflow of $8.91 million. This XRP ETF has net assets of $74.43 million, representing 0.09% of the XRP market. Its market price decreased to $26.18.

In a recent tweet, XRP Ledger developer Wietse Wind shared a peculiar incident about an XRPL user with $200,000 XRP who was locked out of his account after unknowingly creating a "nested Multi Sign" setup.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH), up 5.3% from Thursday, joined Uniswap (UNI) as a top performer.

Pi price climbed double‑digits on Friday as the network’s long‑running experiment in “mobile‑first” crypto collides with hard mainnet deadlines and bruised holders looking for a bottom.

Summary

Pi price trades near $0.152 on TradingView’s PI3USD pair, up roughly 12% on the day but still more than 60% below six‑month levels and about 50% under its $2.99 peak.​ The Pi Core Team set a Feb. 15 deadline for mandatory node upgrades, with CoinMarketCal and Coinpedia framing the push as a key attempt to stabilize the ecosystem after last year’s collapse.​ Analysts remain divided, with some calling Pi’s latest move a short‑covering bounce in a clear downtrend and others seeing post‑capitulation consolidation that could signal a potential bottom.​ Pi (PI) price has jumped around 12% from recent lows as the Feb. 15 mainnet node upgrade deadline approaches, with traders debating whether this is short‑covering or a real bottom.

Pi price action and network stress Pi price changed hands near $0.152 on TradingView’s CRYPTO:PI3USD pair at midday in Europe, up about 12.15% on the session after a brutal drawdown that has left the token more than 60% lower over six months and roughly 50% below its all‑time high near $2.99. The move comes as the Pi Core Team pushes a Feb. 15 cut‑off for mandatory node upgrades, with CoinMarketCal flagging the deadline as a key on‑chain event for operators. Coinpedia framed the rush bluntly, saying the core team has “set Feb 15 deadline for mainnet node upgrade” as part of efforts to stabilize the ecosystem after last year’s collapse.

Today was a bit unusual, a sudden surge in Pi coin price 💹. For me, whether Pi is rising or falling now 📉 or 📈, I'm always adding to my position because I believe that in the next few years, it will dazzle many people 👀 and skyrocket in price, with enormous potential… pic.twitter.com/uDadbNOp0z

— PiNetwork DEX⚡️阿龙 (@fen_leng) February 13, 2026 Traders remain split on whether the latest Pi price bounce is anything more than short‑covering into a crowded downtrend. One recent TradingView idea described PI3USD as “in a clear multi‑day downtrend, with successive lower highs and lower lows,” warning that “until $0.535 is reclaimed convincingly, short setups dominate.” Another analyst argued that after a 95% peak‑to‑trough collapse, Pi “has experienced…steady sideways consolidation” typical of post‑capitulation accumulation phases, with a “potential bottom…forming” as exhausted sellers step aside.

Macro backdrop and majors The backdrop for Pi price is a softer but still elevated digital asset complex. Bitcoin (BTC) trades around $66,306, with a 24‑hour range roughly between $65,243 and $68,309 and turnover near $48.4B as traders digest the expiry of about $2.5B in BTC options highlighted by crypto.news market coverage. Ethereum (ETH) changes hands close to $1,949, with 24‑hour lows near $1,902 and highs just under $1,997 on volumes of about $16.9B, leaving the asset down less than 1% on the day. Solana (SOL) trades near $78.24, roughly 1.3% lower over the last 24 hours and down about 60% versus a year ago, according to YCharts data sourced from CoinGecko and CryptoCompare.

For now, Pi price is attempting a fragile recovery in a market still dominated by Bitcoin’s options calendar and macro risk appetite. Whether the node‑upgrade deadline turns into a genuine inflection or just another sell‑the‑news event will be decided on‑chain over the coming sessions.

Aave Labs plans to route 100% of product revenue to the DAO. The move links Aave’s future growth to the V4 upgrade and institutional expansion. Aave Labs has introduced the new governance proposal called “Aave Will Win,” which would send 100% of revenue generated through Aave-branded products directly to the community treasury, which is controlled by the Aave DAO. If approved, then any income generated by the Aave Labs through Aave products will no longer stay in the company and will flow to the DAO, where the token holders will decide how the funds can be used. 

What does this new governance proposal bring? Currently, Aave primarily earns from borrowing and lending on the protocol; however, under the new proposal, the product’s profits would benefit token holders. Stani Kulechov, founder of Aave, says this structure makes Aave more competitive as financial institutions enter DeFi increasingly. This move strengthens DAO control and ties growth directly to the token holders, which also reduces concerns about centralization.

This proposal comes after the huge internal debate in the community during late 2025 on who should control the branding rights, websites, trademarks, and social media. Some of the members felt that too much power remained with the Aave Labs. The new plan attempts to resolve this issue by hard-coding the revenue alignment. 

Aave V4 role  Aave V4 is one of the upcoming major software updates, which is designed to launch new financial markets and support institutional products, which allows specialized risk models. This makes Aave more flexible while keeping security strong. This proposal allows Aave to create different polls and different risk levels with different revenue setups, which enables the independent market without impacting retail users. 

Basically, DAOs cannot legally own intellectual property, so the plan suggests forming a separate foundation to hold trademarks and to manage legal responsibilities. After this announcement of the new proposal, the Aave token price rose slightly, even during the weaker market. If the community approves, more votes will define the V4 activation and funding structures.

Highlighted Crypto News:

Buck Raises Core Token Yield to 10% with Automatic Wallet Payouts     

The broader cryptocurrency market is having a mixed performance on Friday, with most leading cryptocurrencies currently in the red.

However, POL, the native coin of the Polygon blockchain, is one of the best performers in the market.

It has added 3.5% to its value over the last 24 hours and could be set for a breakout above the $0.10 psychological level in the near term.

The technical indicators suggest that POL could be getting ready for a rally amid improved sentiment in the market. 

Polygon Foundation proposes the Agentic Commerce Gas Program Copy link to section

POL is one of the best performers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap and is now approaching the $0.10 mark. 

The bullish performance comes as the Polygon Foundation continues to roll out proposals to boost Polygon’s position as a leading agentic blockchain. 

On Thursday, the Polygon Foundation informed its community that it had submitted the PIP-82: Agentic Commerce Gas Program proposal. 

PIP-82: Agentic Commerce Gas Program This proposal calls for recycling up to $1M in gas base fees to promote Agentic Commerce transactions (using PIP-65). All non-recycled POL will be burned. See the PIP: forum.polygon.technology/t/pip-82-agent…

This proposal calls for recycling up to $1M in gas-based fees to promote Agentic Commerce transactions (using PIP-65). All non-recycled POL will be burned.

According to the team, this program will operate until the $1M is fully recycled or December 31, 2026, whichever comes first. 

The program may also be edited or terminated by this PIP being superseded by another PIP approved by Polygon Governance.

POL will be valued at the prevailing market rate at the time of the recycling transaction, and that amount will be subtracted from the $1M allowance.

POL eyes recovery above its 20-day EMA Copy link to section

The POL/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and inefficient, with the efficiency level around $0.1041. The token is currently down nearly 50% from its yearly peak of $0.184 on January 11.

Despite POL’s bearish performance, Polygon’s TVL has held steady above $1 billion over the last 30 days. This suggests that capital isn’t leading the blockchain. 

According to Santiment data, loss realization also surged over the past week, hitting $40 million.

If the recovery continues, POL could rally towards the 20-day EMA at $0.1041, allowing it to gain efficiency in the 4-hour chart. This would ensure that the short-term trend remains bullish.

The RSI is at 55, above the neutral level, indicating that the bulls are regaining control. For POL to surpass the $0.1041 resistance level, the RSI will need to head into the overbought region. 

The MACD lines are also converging above the neutral zone, adding further bullish confluence. Immediate resistance aligns at at $0.168 if the bullish trend continues. 

A break above the $0.168 resistance level could pave the way toward the next barrier at $0.212.

However, if the bullish recovery fails, POL could decline towards the last major support level at $0.088.

After a sharp sell-off that forced the price into an obviously bearish structure, XRP is still attempting to find stable ground. According to the chart, XRP is still trading inside a larger declining channel and is below important moving averages that are sloping downward.

Pi coin price climbed double‑digits on Friday as the network’s long‑running experiment in “mobile‑first” crypto collides with hard mainnet deadlines and bruised holders looking for a bottom.

Summary

Pi price trades near $0.152 on TradingView’s PI3USD pair, up roughly 12% on the day but still more than 60% below six‑month levels and about 50% under its $2.99 peak.​ The Pi Core Team set a Feb. 15 deadline for mandatory node upgrades, with CoinMarketCal and Coinpedia framing the push as a key attempt to stabilize the ecosystem after last year’s collapse.​ Analysts remain divided, with some calling Pi’s latest move a short‑covering bounce in a clear downtrend and others seeing post‑capitulation consolidation that could signal a potential bottom.​ Pi coin (PI) price has jumped around 12% from recent lows as the Feb. 15 mainnet node upgrade deadline approaches, with traders debating whether this is short‑covering or a real bottom.

Pi coin price action and network stress Pi price changed hands near $0.152 on TradingView’s CRYPTO:PI3USD pair at midday in Europe, up about 12.15% on the session after a brutal drawdown that has left the token more than 60% lower over six months and roughly 50% below its all‑time high near $2.99. The move comes as the Pi Core Team pushes a Feb. 15 cut‑off for mandatory node upgrades, with CoinMarketCal flagging the deadline as a key on‑chain event for operators. Coinpedia framed the rush bluntly, saying the core team has “set Feb 15 deadline for mainnet node upgrade” as part of efforts to stabilize the ecosystem after last year’s collapse.

Today was a bit unusual, a sudden surge in Pi coin price 💹. For me, whether Pi is rising or falling now 📉 or 📈, I'm always adding to my position because I believe that in the next few years, it will dazzle many people 👀 and skyrocket in price, with enormous potential… pic.twitter.com/uDadbNOp0z

— PiNetwork DEX⚡️阿龙 (@fen_leng) February 13, 2026 Traders remain split on whether the latest Pi price bounce is anything more than short‑covering into a crowded downtrend. One recent TradingView idea described PI3USD as “in a clear multi‑day downtrend, with successive lower highs and lower lows,” warning that “until $0.535 is reclaimed convincingly, short setups dominate.” Another analyst argued that after a 95% peak‑to‑trough collapse, Pi “has experienced…steady sideways consolidation” typical of post‑capitulation accumulation phases, with a “potential bottom…forming” as exhausted sellers step aside.

Macro backdrop and majors The backdrop for Pi price is a softer but still elevated digital asset complex. Bitcoin (BTC) trades around $66,306, with a 24‑hour range roughly between $65,243 and $68,309 and turnover near $48.4B as traders digest the expiry of about $2.5B in BTC options highlighted by crypto.news market coverage. Ethereum (ETH) changes hands close to $1,949, with 24‑hour lows near $1,902 and highs just under $1,997 on volumes of about $16.9B, leaving the asset down less than 1% on the day. Solana (SOL) trades near $78.24, roughly 1.3% lower over the last 24 hours and down about 60% versus a year ago, according to YCharts data sourced from CoinGecko and CryptoCompare.

For now, Pi price is attempting a fragile recovery in a market still dominated by Bitcoin’s options calendar and macro risk appetite. Whether the node‑upgrade deadline turns into a genuine inflection or just another sell‑the‑news event will be decided on‑chain over the coming sessions.

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Bitcoin price has fallen 1.41% to $66,946 over the past 24 hours, following a bearish market trend. The larger cryptocurrency market also declined by 1.59%, with the market value at 2.29 trillion. This fall is largely influenced by macroeconomic factors that affect selling pressure.

Bitcoin is nearing an important support of about $65,000. In the meantime, gold and silver have had minor losses following a recent correction.  As the market adjusts, the Bitcoin price remains corrective, moving within a larger rising channel.

Market Panic: Gold and Silver Lose Over $3.6 Trillion Over $3.6 trillion was wiped off the market in just 90 minutes, as gold and silver saw declines. Gold fell 3.76, wiping almost 1.34 trillion off its market cap, and silver declined 8.5%, losing $400 billion. S&P 500 was not left behind, falling by 1%, to $620 billion.

The sell-off highlights an increased lack of confidence in various segments, including metals, stocks, crypto, and real estate. Critical risks are fueling the turmoil; the major issue is the impending government shutdown. 

The U.S. Congress is at a standoff with time-sensitive funding expiries looming, causing fears of freeze in spending, postponing economic data, and increasing uncertainty among investors.

🚨MASSIVE CRASH IN THE MARKET.

Over $3.6 Trillion wiped out in 90 MINUTES.

Gold is down 3.76% and has wiped out nearly $1.34 trillion from its market cap.

Silver has dumped 8.5% and erased $400 billion from its market cap.

The S&P 500 has fallen 1% and erased $620 billion.… pic.twitter.com/yeqoLbAuNT

— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) February 12, 2026

Even inflation is proving stable, with rate cuts being continually postponed, and the market lacking a definite Federal Reserve backstop. All these factors are contributing to panic.

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs Face Outflows Amid Market Volatility On February 12, Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced a significant outflow, totaling $410 million. No inflows occurred on the 12 Bitcoin ETFs in the day. Likewise, Ethereum spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of $113 million, with no inflows in all nine Ethereum ETFs.

On February 12 (ET), Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a total net outflow of $410 million, with none of the 12 ETFs posting a net inflow. Ethereum spot ETFs had a total net outflow of $113 million, with all nine ETFs showing no net inflows. https://t.co/Hj2Gs49bWa pic.twitter.com/OWYeaSv3Hn

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) February 13, 2026

The recent statistics also indicated that the total assets of Bitcoin ETFs were 82.86 billion. This trend implies that investors remain cautious, which is a risk-averse mood in the wider cryptocurrency market in spite of high asset ratings.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: How Low Can BTC Go? The BTC price dropped to $66,953 after a significant pullback earlier in February. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is 44, indicating BTC is not overbought or oversold.

Nevertheless, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) stays negative, which means that the bearish momentum is stronger at the point.

The first target to watch is the immediate resistance at $68,000. If the future Bitcoin outlook manages to break above this level, it could signal a potential upward move toward the short-term target of $70,000.

Source: BTC/USDT 4-hour chart: Tradingview On the negative side, there is an estimated support of about $65,000. In case of falling below this price, Bitcoin can also test the long-term support of about $60,000. A shift towards $60,000 would mean that the market will have even more pressure on the bear side.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) A combination of fears surrounding a government shutdown, inflation, and ongoing economic uncertainty led to massive sell-offs.

Bitcoin ETFs faced a $410 million outflow, reflecting caution among investors amid market volatility and broader economic concerns.

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Bitcoin’s quantum-security discussion just gained a concrete new artifact in the code-and-spec pipeline: an updated draft of BIP-360 has been merged into the official Bitcoin Improvement Proposals repository, proposing a Taproot-adjacent output type designed to limit exposure to future quantum key-recovery attacks.

The change matters less because it “solves” quantum risk today, and more because it formalizes a specific, opt-in path that preserves Taproot’s script-tree functionality while removing the spending route considered most problematic under a quantum-threat model.

Bitcoin Devs Make First Formal Quantum-Resistance Move Anduro, a research-focused platform incubated by Marathon Digital (MARA), said on X that the merged update “introduces Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR), a proposed new output type that omits Taproot’s quantum-vulnerable key-path spend while preserving compatibility with Tapscript and script trees.”

In BIP terms, the proposal is scoped as “Consensus (soft fork)” and defines P2MR as a new SegWit v2 output that commits directly to the Merkle root of a script tree, rather than to a tweaked public key as in Pay-to-Taproot (P2TR). The practical implication is straightforward: P2MR outputs can only be spent via script-path logic; the key-path spend is removed entirely.

The BIP’s abstract frames the goal in terms of minimizing changes while providing an option set for users who want additional protection:

“This document proposes a new output type: Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR), via a soft fork. P2MR outputs operate with nearly the same functionality as P2TR (Pay-to-Taproot) outputs, but with the key path spend removed.”
It adds that the intended protection is against “long exposure attacks by Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computers (CRQCs),” as well as “future cryptanalytic approaches that may compromise the elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) used by Bitcoin.”

A key element of the BIP is definitional discipline: it distinguishes “long exposure” attacks (where public keys are available on-chain for extended periods) from “short exposure” attacks, which would target public keys revealed briefly in the mempool during an unconfirmed spend.

The document is explicit that P2MR is not a complete quantum shield. “It is worth noting that proposed P2MR outputs are only resistant to ‘long exposure attacks’ on elliptic curve cryptography; that is, attacks on keys exposed for time periods longer than needed to confirm a spending transaction,” the BIP states.

“Protection against more sophisticated quantum attacks, including protection against private key recovery from public keys exposed in the mempool while a transaction is waiting to be confirmed (a.k.a. ‘short exposure attacks’), may require the introduction of post-quantum signatures in Bitcoin.” The authors add they “intend to offer a separate proposal for this purpose upon further research.”

That split is also why the proposal emphasizes tapscript compatibility. It positions P2MR as a script-tree output type that could, if Bitcoin ever adopts post-quantum signature opcodes, provide a cleaner upgrade runway than older script mechanisms that don’t support tapscript’s evolution path.

Anduro highlighted that the change is designed as a soft fork and “does not affect existing Taproot outputs.” P2MR would be a new output type (with bech32m addresses starting with bc1z) rather than a retrofit of existing bc1p Taproot UTXOs.

The proposal also doesn’t pretend the swap is free. By removing key-path spends, P2MR gives up Taproot’s most compact witness path (a single Schnorr signature). The BIP estimates that a minimal P2MR spend witness is 37 bytes larger than a Taproot key-path spend, though it can be smaller than an equivalent Taproot script-path spend because P2MR’s control block omits an internal public key.

Privacy shifts too. Because every spend is script-path, P2MR users necessarily reveal they are spending from a script tree—something Taproot key-path spends can avoid signaling.

Anduro said the update also “addresses criticism about Bitcoin devs not taking the quantum threat seriously,” and noted the addition of Isabel Foxen Duke as co-author to make the BIP clearer “to the general public, not just the Bitcoin developer community.”

BIP-360 remains in “Draft” status. But its merge into the canonical repository is still a meaningful process marker: it moves the quantum-safety conversation from abstract worry and mailing-list hypotheticals toward a specific consensus change proposal that wallets, libraries, and reviewers can now analyze line-by-line.

If the debate has a next phase, it’s likely to center on whether “prepared not scared” opt-ins like P2MR are sufficient groundwork or whether Bitcoin will eventually need to grapple directly with post-quantum signatures and the operational realities of migrating value at scale.

At press time, BTC traded at $66,558.

Bitcoin must reclaim the 200-week EMA, 1-week chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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