Market Signal Briefing

Key Takeaways BOOT ended Q3 with 514 stores after a record 25 openings, reaffirming its 1,200 store goal.BOOT expects new stores to generate $3.2M in first-year sales with payback in under two years.BOOT plans 70 openings in FY26 and targets 12%-15% annual unit growth in FY27. Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT - Free Report) continues to generate strong results from its new store engine, consistently surpassing expectations for sales, earnings, and payback across all U.S. regions. This momentum has carried through stores opened over the past 12 months. The company ended the fiscal third quarter with 514 locations, including a record 25 openings during the quarter, while reaffirming its long-term goal of reaching 1,200 stores nationwide.

The expansion strategy is supported by attractive unit economics. New stores are projected to deliver roughly $3.2 million in annual sales in their first full year. Management expects these locations to recover their initial investment in under two years, highlighting strong early productivity and compelling returns on new units.

Growth in non-legacy markets such as Florida, Jersey City, and the Northeast has been especially encouraging. Management noted that the sales mix and customer profile in these regions closely resemble legacy markets like California, Arizona and Texas, demonstrating the brand’s nationwide resonance and competitive positioning.

Overall, Boot Barn’s store expansion pipeline remains strong. The company plans to open 15 stores in the fiscal fourth quarter, bringing fiscal 2026 openings to 70 stores. Looking ahead, for fiscal 2027, about 20 openings are planned for the first quarter beginning in April, with annual new unit growth targeted in the range of 12% to 15%, reinforcing sustained expansion and earnings growth potential.

The Zacks Rundown for BOOTBOOT’s shares have gained 5.4% year to date compared with the industry’s rise of 3.9%. BOOT sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation standpoint, BOOT trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 22.17, higher than the industry’s average of 18.38.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BOOT’s current and next fiscal year earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 26% and 16.1%, respectively.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Other Stocks to ConsiderFive Below, Inc. (FIVE - Free Report) operates as a specialty value retailer in the United States. At present, Five Below currently sports a Zacks Rank of 1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FIVE’s current fiscal-year sales and earnings implies growth of 22.4% and 25.8%, respectively, from the year-ago figures. FIVE delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 62.1%, on average.

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO - Free Report) operates as a specialty beauty retailer in the United States, Mexico and Kuwait. At present, AEO flaunts a Zacks Rank of 1.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AEO’s current fiscal-year sales implies growth of 2.6%, and the same for earnings indicates a decline of 20.7% from the year-ago figures. American Eagle delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 35.1%, on average.

Deckers Outdoors Corporation (DECK - Free Report) , together with its subsidiaries, designs, markets and distributes footwear, apparel, and accessories for casual lifestyle use and high-performance activities in the United States and internationally.  At present, Deckers sports a Zacks Rank of 1.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DECK’s current fiscal-year sales and earnings indicates growth of 8.5% and 7.9%, respectively, from the year-ago figures. DECK delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 36.9%, on average.

Key Takeaways ALNY beat Q4 EPS estimates but missed on revenues despite 85% Y/Y growth, sending shares down 4.1%.Amvuttra sales surged 189% on strong demand and label expansion, though slightly below estimates.ALNY guided 2026 net product revenues of $4.9B-$5.3B, implying 64-77% Y/Y growth at CER. Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY - Free Report) reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $1.25 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.16. The company had reported adjusted earnings of 6 cents in the year-ago quarter.

Alnylam recorded total revenues of $1.10 billion in the quarter, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.14 billion. In the year-ago quarter, total revenues were $593.2 million. The top line rose 85% year over year on a reported basis and 83% at a constant exchange rate (CER), mainly driven by increased sales of its lead drug, Amvuttra (vutrisiran), following label expansion.

Net product revenues were $994.7 million, up 121% year over year on a reported basis and 119% at CER, driven by strong growth in patient demand for Amvuttra, as well as for its other marketed drugs, Givlaari (givosiran) and Oxlumo (lumasiran).

Following the mixed nature of Alnylam’s fourth-quarter results, the stock was down 4.1% on Thursday.

Net revenues from collaborators were $40.9 million, down 62% from the year-ago quarter on a reported basis and at CER. The drop was mainly due to revenues recognized under a license agreement with Novartis (NVS - Free Report) tied to the achievement of a specific Leqvio (inclisiran) commercialization milestone during the year-ago quarter. In the reported quarter, the company did not recognize any revenues from Novartis. In the fourth quarter, ALNY recognized revenues under its ongoing collaborations with Regeneron and Roche (RHHBY - Free Report) .

Alnylam has granted Novartis exclusive global rights to manufacture and commercialize RNAi therapeutics targeting PCSK9, including Leqvio, for the treatment of hypercholesterolemia and other diseases. The FDA has approved Leqvio for several heart disease indications, alongside diet and statins. As of December 2025, Leqvio is approved in more than 108 countries.

Alnylam also recognized royalty revenues of $61.4 million in the reported quarter, up 73% year over year on a reported basis and at CER.

ALNY’s Q4 Results in DetailOnpattro (patisiran) is approved for the treatment of polyneuropathy of hereditary transthyretin-mediated (hATTR) amyloidosis. The injection recorded sales of $31.7 million in the reported quarter, down 44% on a reported basis. Onpattro sales missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $39.8 million.

Amvuttra is FDA-approved for the treatment of adult patients with polyneuropathy of hATTR amyloidosis (hATTR-PN). The European Commission also approved Amvuttra for treating hATTR amyloidosis in adult patients with stage 1 or 2 polyneuropathy. A label expansion for the drug has also been approved in the United States and the EU for treating cardiomyopathy of wild-type or hereditary transthyretin-mediated amyloidosis (ATTR-CM) in adults to reduce cardiovascular mortality, cardiovascular hospitalizations and urgent heart failure visits.

Amvuttra generated sales worth $826.6 million in the fourth quarter, up 189% on a reported basis, driven by increased patient demand, mainly in ATTR-CM patients in the United States, as well as several patients switching from Onpattro. However, Amvuttra sales missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $837.2 million.

Givlaari, approved for the treatment of acute hepatic porphyria, recorded sales of $86.8 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 34% on a reported basis. Givlaari sales beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $79.7 million. Oxlumo recorded global net product revenues of $49.6 million in the reported quarter, up 14% year over year on a reported basis. Oxlumo sales missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $55.2 million.

In the past six months, Alnylam stock has plunged 30.3% against the industry’s 22% growth.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Adjusted research and development (R&D) expenses rose 31% year over year to $340.9 million. R&D expenses accounted for increased clinical study costs associated with the ZENITH phase III cardiovascular outcomes study, which will evaluate zilebesiran to treat patients with hypertension at high cardiovascular risk, in partnership with Roche. Increased expenses associated with the phase III TRITON-CM and TRITON-PN studies, evaluating nucresiran in patients with ATTR-CM and hATTR-PN, respectively, also contributed to higher R&D costs.

Adjusted selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses increased 17% year over year to $285.1 million, primarily due to higher employee compensation costs, as a result of higher headcount and increased marketing investment associated with the Amvuttra launch in ATTR-CM.

Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities as of Dec. 31, 2025, amounted to $2.91 billion compared with $2.7 billion recorded as of Sept. 30, 2025.

Alnylam, in collaboration with Roche, is developing zilebesiran in a late-stage study (ZENITH) to evaluate the potential of zilebesiran to reduce the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with uncontrolled hypertension. ALNY entered a strategic collaboration with RHHBY to co-develop and co-commercialize zilebesiran for the treatment of hypertension in 2023.

ALNY’s Full-Year 2025 ResultsFor 2025, Alnylam generated total revenues of $3.71 billion, up 65% year over year on a reported basis and 64% at CER. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.75 billion.

For 2025, the company reported adjusted earnings of $5.08 per share, in contrast to the loss of 2 cents per share recorded in 2024, on the back of significantly higher revenues generated. The reported figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of earnings of $4.56 per share.

ALNY’s 2026 Financial GuidanceAlnylam expects net product revenues for Onpattro, Amvuttra, Givlaari and Oxlumo in the range of $4.9-$5.3 billion for 2026, suggesting year-over-year growth of 64-77% at CER.

Net revenues from collaborations and royalties are expected in the range of $400-$500 million. Adjusted R&D and SG&A expenses are anticipated in the band of $2.7-$2.8 billion.

Our TakeAlnylam delivered mixed fourth-quarter 2025 results, surpassing earnings estimates but falling short on revenues despite year-over-year growth. The revenue miss likely reflects elevated Wall Street expectations for the company’s commercial trajectory rather than a deterioration in underlying demand, so investors may not need to read too much into the shortfall.

The year-over-year revenue growth was primarily driven by strong Amvuttra sales, supported by rising patient demand. Recent label expansions for the ATTR-CM indication in both the United States and the EU have broadened the eligible patient population, further accelerating uptake — a trend we expect to persist in the coming quarters. Meanwhile, contributions from Givlaari and Oxlumo continue to provide additional support to the top line.

ALNY’s Zacks Rank and Stock to ConsiderAlnylam currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

A better-ranked stock in the biotech sector is Alkermes (ALKS - Free Report) , sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Over the past 60 days, estimates for Alkermes’ 2026 EPS have increased from $1.54 to $1.91. ALKS shares have risen 17.8% over the past six months.

Alkermes’ earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in the remaining one, with the average earnings surprise being 4.58%.

Key Takeaways U.S.-Taiwan pact cuts tariffs to 15%, boosting Taiwan's tech and export outlook. Taiwan Semiconductor stands to gain as exports and AI demand fuel margin expansion. ETFs like EWT offer heavy TSM exposure after strong one-year gains. The landmark trade agreement signed between the United States and Taiwan on Feb. 12, 2026, has ignited a new wave of optimism for the island’s industrial powerhouses. By reducing reciprocal tariffs from 20% to 15%, the deal directly lowers the cost of entry for Taiwanese high-tech exports — particularly semiconductors, generic pharmaceuticals and aircraft parts — into the world’s largest economy.

This reduction effectively places Taiwan on a "fair footing" with other Asian allies like Japan and South Korea, removing the competitive disadvantage previously caused by "Trump-era" reciprocal duties. 

For investors, this pivotal deal creates a significant tailwind for Taiwanese giants like Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM - Free Report) and, by extension, Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) that hold heavy concentrations of them, as these companies remain poised for margin expansion and increased shipment volumes in the days ahead.

By holding a diversified basket of these firms, ETFs offer a direct route to capitalize on this improved competitive landscape without the risk of picking individual stocks.

Before suggesting these ETFs for your portfolio, let us delve a little deeper into the specifics of this trade deal and the prospects for Taiwanese companies, so you can make a more informed investment decision.

US-Taiwan: The Evolving Geopolitics of a Strategic PartnershipThe U.S.-Taiwan relationship is far from simple, operating within a complex geopolitical framework. 

As the United States steadily pushes for a “Silicon Shield” by reshoring 40% of the semiconductor supply chain to its shores, Taiwan leverages its dominance in AI hardware to secure more favorable trade terms. 

Against this backdrop, the agreement effectively codifies the mutual dependency between the two nations, with the United States lowering trade barriers in exchange for Taiwan deepening its critical technology investments in America.

The deal includes an $84 billion commitment from Taiwan to purchase U.S. goods — including LNG, crude oil and aircraft — between 2025 and 2029, along with a $250 billion investment pledge by Taiwanese firms into U.S. manufacturing. Taiwan has also pledged to remove or reduce 99% of tariff barriers on U.S. goods, as well as provide “preferential market access” for U.S. exports, including autos, beef products and minerals (as per a CNBC press release). 

This "reciprocal trade" framework, while aimed at narrowing the U.S. trade deficit, will add impetus to the booming Taiwanese economy by fueling the insatiable global demand for AI.

ETFs to GainBolstered by this deal, Taiwan’s economy, which grew 8.6% in 2025, is expected to maintain its momentum despite global "AI bubble" fears. According to Fortune, this growth was largely fueled by a 78% surge in exports to the United States, backed by ballooning AI demand.

Now that the tariff is reduced, more export volumes are expected to be registered this year, which should help Taiwanese "enablers" capture efficiency gains in the coming days. 

Against this backdrop, for those looking to capitalize on this transformation, the following ETFs offer the most direct exposure:

iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (EWT - Free Report)

This fund, with net assets worth $8.15 billion, offers exposure to 88 large and mid-sized companies in Taiwan. Its top three holdings include TSM (24.66%), Mediatek (4.72%) and Hon Hai Precision Industry (HNHPF - Free Report) (4.56%). 

EWT has surged 37.5% over the past year. The fund charges 59 basis points (bps) as fees. It traded at a good volume of 6.98 million shares in the last trading session. 

Franklin FTSE Taiwan ETF (FLTW - Free Report)

This fund, with net assets worth $706.3 million, offers exposure to 130 Taiwan large and mid-capitalization stocks. Its top three holdings include TSM (22.09%), HNHPF (6.35%) and Mediatek (6.25%). 

FLTW has soared 46.2% over the past year. The fund charges 19 bps as fees. It traded at a volume of 0.49 million shares in the last trading session. 

Fidelity Emerging Markets Multifactor ETF (FDEM - Free Report)

This fund, with net assets worth $448.1 million, offers exposure to 250 stocks of large and mid-capitalization emerging markets companies that have attractive valuations, high quality profiles, positive momentum signals, lower volatility than the broader emerging markets equity market, and lower correlation to the U.S. equity market. TSM holds the first position in this fund, with 10.30% weightage.  

FDEM has gained 30.6% over the past year. The fund charges 28 bps as fees. It traded at a volume of 0.20 million shares in the last trading session.   

RGTI enters 2026 with $600M in liquidity, funds 100+ qubit launches and cuts dilution risk as revenue volatility persists.

Key Takeaways PacBio reported Q4 revenues of $44.6M, up 13.8%, beating estimates.PACB's adjusted gross margin expanded 900 bps to 41%, operating loss narrowed.PACB guides 2026 revenue to $165-$180M, up 3-12% year over year. Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. (PACB - Free Report) , popularly known as PacBio, delivered an adjusted loss per share of 12 cents in fourth-quarter 2025, narrower than the year-ago adjusted loss of 20 cents per share. The adjusted loss per share topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 36.8%.

The company’s GAAP loss per share was 13 cents in the quarter compared with the year-ago period’s loss of 49 cents.

PacBio’s Revenues in DetailPacBio registered total revenues of $44.6 million in the fourth quarter, up 13.8% year over year. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 9.4%.

PACB’s Geographical AnalysisPacBio’s revenues from the Americas were $20.7 million, up 3%year over year.

In the Asia-Pacific region, PacBio recorded revenues of $9.3 million, reflecting a 4% increase year over year.

The Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region registered revenues of $14.6 million, which improved 45% year over year.

PacBio’s Segmental AnalysisTotal Product revenues amounted to $38.9 million, up 14.3% from the year-ago quarter.

Within the Product segment, Instrument revenues were $17.3 million, up 13.1% year over year.Instrument revenues in the fourth quarter of 2025 included 21 Revio sequencing systems and 42 Vega sequencing systems.

PACB ended the quarter with 331 cumulative Revio system shipments.

Consumables revenues for the fourth quarter of 2025 were $21.6 million, up 14.9% from the prior-year quarter. AnnualizedRevio pull-through per system was $242,000 in the quarter.

Service and other revenues totaled $5.7million, up 11.8% year over year. This was driven by an increase in service contract revenues related to Revio.

PACB’s Margin TrendIn the quarter under review, PacBio’s adjusted gross profit increased 44.7% year over year to $17.8 million. The adjusted gross margin expanded 900 basis points to 41%.

Sales, general and administrative expenses declined 18.2% year over year to $34.1 million. Research and development expenses decreased 16.7% year over year to $22.9 million. Adjusted total operating expenses of $56.2 million decreased 18.1% year over year.

Total operating loss was $41.2 million in the reported quarter compared with the prior-year quarter’s $153 million.

PacBio’s Financial PositionPacBio exited the fourth quarter of 2025 with cash and investmentsof $279.5million compared with $298.7million at the end of the third quarter of 2025.

PACB’s 2026 GuidancePacBio has provide its revenue outlook for full year 2026.

Management expects 2026 revenues to grow in the range of 3%-12% year over year to $165-180 million.The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $177.4 million.

Our TakePacBio exited the fourth quarter of 2025 with better-than-expected results, where both earnings and revenues beat their respective Zacks Consensus Estimate. A robust increase in all the segmental revenues was encouraging. The expansion of the adjusted gross margin and reduction in total operating loss also bode well.

During the quarter, PacBio advanced its strategic focus on long-read sequencing through a series of clinical, research, and portfolio actions. The company joined the iHope initiative as the first long-read genomic sequencing partner, integrating HiFi sequencing into one of the world’s largest equitable rare-disease genomic testing networks, while also announcing collaborations with the n-Lorem Foundation and EspeRare to accelerate precision therapies for rare genetic diseases. HiFi sequencing was further validated with its adoption as a first-line approach for investigating sudden unexplained death in childhood.

On the technology front, PacBio expanded its multiomics capabilities with the launch of CiFi, a new long-read 3C method enabling chromosome-scale assemblies from a single SMRT Cell, developed in collaboration with UC Davis researchers. Complementing these operational milestones, the company completed the sale of its short-read sequencing assets for net cash proceeds of approximately $48.1 million, strengthening the balance sheet and extending its cash runway.

PacBio’s Zacks Rank and Stocks to ConsiderPACB currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Some better-ranked stocks in the broader medical space that have announced quarterly results are DaVita Inc. (DVA - Free Report) , Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH - Free Report) and Doximity, Inc. (DOCS - Free Report) .

DaVita reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.40, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.1%. Revenues of $3.62 billion surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.7%. It currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

DaVita has a long-term estimated growth rate of 20.2%. DVA’s earnings surpassed estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 1.2%.

Cardinal Health, carrying a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) at present, reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS of $2.63, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 9.9%. Revenues of $65.63 billion topped the consensus mark by 0.9%.

Cardinal Health has a long-term estimated growth rate of 15%. CAH’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 9.3%.

Doximity reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS of 46 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.6%. Revenues of $185.1 million surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.2%. It currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.

Doximity has a long-term estimated growth rate of 16.1%. DOCS’ earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 19.9%.

Key Takeaways Alliant Energy is set to report Q4 2025 earnings on Feb. 19, with EPS expected to fall 17.14% year over year.LNT may benefit from customer growth, economic development, and new battery storage in Wisconsin.LNT carries a 0.58% Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #3, signaling potential for an earnings beat. Alliant Energy (LNT - Free Report) is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 19, after market close. The company delivered a negative earnings surprise of 4.27% in the last reported quarter.

Let’s discuss the factors that are likely to be reflected in the upcoming quarterly results.

LNT’s Q4 ExpectationsThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 58 cents per share, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 17.14%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pinned at $937.8 million, implying a year-over-year decrease of 3.91%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total electricity delivered is pegged at 8,181.71 megawatt-hours (MWh), up 0.81% year over year.

Factors That Might Have Impacted LNT’s Q4 EarningsThe company’s fourth-quarter earnings are predicted to gain from a diversified and expanding customer base and robust economic development in its service territory, which is creating fresh demand for the utility services.

On Oct. 16, 2025, LNT successfully integrated its new 100 (MW) Battery energy storage system for its 200-MW solar project in Grant County, WI, which started its operation and will further act as a tailwind to quarterly performance.

Alliant Energy is expected to have benefited from an increase in demand from the data center. Its fourth-quarter earnings are likely to have been supported by the proper execution of cost controls and the financing plan.

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for LNTOur proven model predicts an earnings beat for Alliant Energy this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here, as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: The company’s Earnings ESP is +0.58%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our 
Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Currently, Alliant Energy carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Other Stocks to ConsiderInvestors may consider the following players from the same industry, as these also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

IDACORP (IDA - Free Report) is likely to come up with an earnings beat when it reports fourth-quarter results on Feb. 19. It has an Earnings ESP of +1.13% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

IDA’s long-term (three to five years) earnings growth rate is 8.01%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter EPS is pinned at 74 cents per share, which implies a year-over-year increase of 5.71%.

Pinnacle West Capital (PNW - Free Report) is likely to come up with an earnings beat when it reports fourth-quarter results on Feb. 25. It has an Earnings ESP of +7.94% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

PNW’s long-term earnings growth rate is 3.56%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter EPS is pegged at 5 cents per share, which implies a year-over-year increase of 183.33%.

The AES Corporation (AES - Free Report) is likely to come up with an earnings beat when it reports fourth-quarter results on Feb. 27. It has an Earnings ESP of +0.54% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

AES’ long-term earnings growth rate is 11.17%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter EPS is pinned at 62 cents per share, which implies a year-over-year increase of 14.81%.

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

American multinational investment giant BlackRock has doubled down on its Bitcoin and Ethereum sell-off as the broader market is yet to recover fully. In the past 24 hours, market data from Onchain Lens shows the firm has deposited 3,402 Bitcoin to Coinbase.

BlackRock Mixed Buying and SellingBesides the $227.5 million Bitcoin sales, BlackRock also transferred millions in Ethereum, a trend that takes place multiple times weekly. 

Per the shared data, the firm sent 15,108 Ethereum, worth $29.52 million, to the top American trading platform. These transactions, per a screenshot that accompanied the update shows fragmented transfers. 

These transfers include multiple units of 300 BTC, 10,000 ETH and 5,180 ETH, respectively. BlackRock is considered a net seller of both assets, contributing to the intense selling pressure on the crypto market.

As reported earlier by U.Today, BlackRock sold $671 million in Bitcoin and Ethereum on Coinbase, one of the largest dumpoffs in recent times. 

While the company appears to be downsizing its Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF holdings, there are some days it brings in more of the asset. Per Farside Investors data, BlackRock recorded $26.5 million inflows in the iShares Bitcoin Trust as of Feb. 10.

This, however, does not balance out the growing sell-offs recorded in recent times. This move comes as the Bitcoin price is in rebound mode, up 0.8% in 24 hours to $66,916.05.

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Net buyers of Bitcoin and EthereumWhile BlackRock is selling, there are other institutions, like Michael Saylor’s Strategy, that are net buyers of Bitcoin. Earlier this week, the business intelligence and software firm acquired Bitcoin as the price fell toward the $60,000 range.

The company has reiterated that it has no plans to sell its Bitcoin holdings, an affirmation that has restored confidence amid BlackRock’s dumping.

For Ethereum, Bitmine and SharpLink Gaming have continued to make new acquisitions, relying on staking to cushion the negative price impact. While the current sentiment on the crypto market is negative, there are projections that this era may serve as a precursor to a massive rebound.

Crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) extended their losing streak as bitcoin and ether recorded another wave of heavy outflows. XRP also slipped into the red, while solana stood out with modest inflows.

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

A hacker address implicated in the exploit of Mixin network is back to life after two years of inactivity. As flagged by Lookonchain, the hacker’s wallet address appears to be selling the siphoned funds with the aid of popular crypto mixer Tornado Cash.

Ethereum sell-off initiated by Mixin hackerPer the insight from Lookonchain, in the past 15 hours, the hacker has sent 2,005 Ethereum, valued at $3,850,000, to Tornado Cash. This marked the start of other transactions, as three new wallets also received 2,087 ETH.

These fragmented ETH have a value of $4.03 million, and through Tornado Cash, they were sold at a market price of $1,933. As of writing time, the price of Ethereum was changing hands for $1,971.30, implying that the hacker sold at a loss with differences in valuation.

As with many scam alert trends, attackers often lie low after their exploit to stall investigations into their nefarious acts. Mixin network was exploited in 2023, with the hacker siphoning 57,849 Ethereum worth $113.4 million.

At the time, the exploit also led to the loss of 891 BTC, worth $59.7 million, and 23.57 million USDT, which was converted into DAI stablecoin.

More selling pressure for ETHThe market sentiment around Ethereum is growing more negative as different sell-off avenues have emerged in the past 24 hours.

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U.Today previously noted that BlackRock moved millions in Ethereum to Coinbase, extending its dump of the largest altcoin. With less observable Ethereum retail accumulation to shift the trend, the price of ETH is poised to remain in a deep drawdown in the coming weeks.

While Bitmine is helping to cushion the sell-off with purchases and staking of the Ethereum in its treasury, the net sell-off needs to reverse for an ultimate price rebound. As of writing time, the coin was priced at $1,970, down 1.3% in the past 24 hours, per CoinMarketCap data.

The crypto market is still struggling to recover from the prolonged volatility seen over the past few weeks, and Shiba Inu (SHIB) has continued to trade in red territory, showing mild losses over the last day.

Despite negative price movements, Shiba Inu traders have locked in 10.16 trillion SHIB tokens worth $64.05 million as investors begin to place more bets on the Shiba Inu futures market. 

While momentum has been weak, rising interest from Shiba Inu futures traders have seen the asset show a decent increase of 2.56% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinGlass.

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Shiba Inu flips Bitcoin and XRPWhile the mild surge in Shiba Inu’s open interest suggests that investors are gradually regaining interest in the asset, the metric comes as a surprise as other leading cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and XRP⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, have only recorded notable declines in open interest over the same period.

While Bitcoin and XRP futures traders appear to be lagging as they have held back on their bets amid looming uncertainties, they have recorded 4.29% and 2.35% in open interest, respectively.

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Nonetheless, it is quite interesting to note that the open interest surge has also moved its trading price, which has remained steady in red territory for the past few weeks.

Although the Shiba Inu trading price has failed to show any sign of recovery, the brief increase in its open interest has sparked discussion across the crypto community about its potential to regain over the weekend.

While Shiba Inu is currently trading at $0.000006111 with a price decrease of 0.58% over the last 24 hours, the positive futures activity suggests that the price might see a potential resurgence if the momentum persists.

Ethereum may not be making daily headlines, but its long-term story is getting stronger. While short-term price swings continue to test investor patience, the broader foundation beneath ETH appears to be quietly improving.

Beyond speculation and hype cycles, Ethereum is increasingly becoming the infrastructure layer for tokenized finance. At the same time, the weekly chart shows the ETH price retesting a major macro support zone, a level that has historically acted as a launchpad for strong upside moves.

With fundamentals strengthening and technical structure holding, could Ethereum price be setting up for a larger breakout toward $5,000?

Ethereum’s Growing Role in Tokenized FinanceEthereum now hosts more than 60% of all tokenized assets, with nearly $200 billion already settled on the network. That’s not just a DeFi statistic—it reflects real capital moving on-chain.

When institutions explore tokenizing real-world assets such as funds, bonds, or structured products, Ethereum continues to be the preferred base layer. Its established infrastructure, liquidity, and security track record give institutions confidence.

Source: XAs tokenisation gains global traction, Ethereum stands to benefit from increased settlement activity and sustained on-chain demand. Instead of being viewed purely as a speculative asset, ETH is increasingly tied to real financial infrastructure.

ETH Weekly Chart Points to a Possible $7,000 TargetOn the technical side, Ethereum price is currently retesting the lower boundary of a multi-year ascending channel on the weekly chart. In previous cycles, similar pullbacks toward this trendline formed higher lows, followed by significant rallies. The structure remains intact for now, suggesting that the broader uptrend has not been broken.

If ETH holds this macro support and begins climbing back toward the upper boundary of the channel, a breakout could open the door toward the $7,000 region. This target is derived from the projected move of the channel structure. This bullish setup depends on defending the current support. A confirmed breakdown below the channel base would weaken the macro outlook and delay any breakout scenario.

ConclusionEthereum’s leadership in tokenized assets strengthens its long-term narrative, especially as institutions increasingly settle value on-chain. At the same time, the weekly chart shows ETH sitting at a critical structural level within its broader uptrend.

If buyers step in and push the price higher from this zone, the path toward $7,000 becomes technically realistic. But for now, Ethereum must first prove that this macro support can hold. The next move could define whether ETH is simply consolidating or preparing for its next major expansion phase.

Trust with CoinPedia:CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017. All content is created by our expert panel of analysts and journalists, following strict Editorial Guidelines based on E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness). Every article is fact-checked against reputable sources to ensure accuracy, transparency, and reliability. Our review policy guarantees unbiased evaluations when recommending exchanges, platforms, or tools. We strive to provide timely updates about everything crypto & blockchain, right from startups to industry majors.

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JPMorgan is sticking with its long-run bitcoin upside framework, including a $266,000 per-coin target, even as the bank flags near-term stress signals around mining economics and still-chilly risk sentiment heading into 2026.

The bank’s latest read hinges on two pillars: a “soft” floor around bitcoin’s production cost, and a valuation model that maps bitcoin’s potential market cap against private-sector gold investment on a volatility-adjusted basis.
In the near term, JPMorgan frames the current drawdown as a familiar stress test for miners. The bank estimates the cost to produce a bitcoin at roughly $77,000, while bitcoin was trading around the mid-$60,000s in the same analysis window, putting spot below breakeven for less efficient operators.

JP Morgan Remains Bullish On Bitcoin Historically, JPMorgan argues, production cost tends to behave like “soft” support rather than a hard line. The mechanism is reflexive: if prices stay below profitability for long enough, weaker miners shut down, difficulty adjusts lower, and the average cost of production falls, effectively tightening the band that previously sat above spot.

The bank also keeps its broader market tone constructive for 2026, leaning on the idea that institutional capital (not retail or corporate treasuries) is the marginal buyer that can restart flows when the macro backdrop stabilizes. As JPMorgan put it: “We are positive on the outlook for 2026 and expect increased inflows into digital assets, driven by institutional investors.”

JPMorgan’s $266,000 target is not pitched as a 2026 “call,” but as the mathematical end point of a gold-parity thought experiment. In the bank’s model, matching the scale of private gold investment (roughly $8 trillion, excluding central banks) implies a bitcoin price around $266,000, a level the analysts themselves described as “unrealistic” in the near term.

The bridge between “unrealistic now” and “possible later,” in JPMorgan’s framing, is volatility. The bank has pointed to a bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio around 1.5, unusually low by historical standards and argues that gold’s surge since October alongside rising gold volatility has improved bitcoin’s relative appeal over the long run.

“The large outperformance of gold vs. bitcoin since last October coupled with the sharp rise in gold volatility has led to bitcoin looking even more attractive compared to gold over the long term,” the analysts wrote.

JPMorgan’s stance effectively splits the tape into two timeframes: a messy adjustment process if bitcoin remains below mining breakevens, and a longer-duration bet that institutional inflows and regulatory progress in the US can reprice the asset’s role versus gold as 2026 unfolds.

At press time, BTC traded at $66,229.

Bitcoin must reclaim the 200-week EMA, 1-week chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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Uniswap shot up 5.4% Friday. The decentralized exchange token grabbed the top spot on the CoinDesk 20, beating out Bitcoin Cash by just a hair. BCH wasn’t far behind with its own 5.3% jump.

The CoinDesk 20 tracks the most actively traded digital assets, and these two coins basically owned the leaderboard. UNI’s surge put it ahead of the pack, but Bitcoin Cash kept pace with strong momentum of its own. Both coins saw serious volume spikes that caught traders off guard. Trading desks scrambled to figure out what drove the sudden interest. Volume data from February 12 showed Uniswap hit over $1 billion in single-day trading – numbers that haven’t been seen since the DeFi boom last year.

Bitcoin Cash hit $800 million in volume. Pretty impressive for a Friday.

UNI’s performance makes sense when you look at what Uniswap actually does. The protocol lets people trade directly from their wallets without going through centralized exchanges. No middleman, no custody risks. That’s appealing to a lot of traders who got burned by exchange collapses. And the DeFi space is heating up again after months of quiet trading.

Bitcoin Cash took a different path to get here. The coin started as a Bitcoin fork years ago, focusing on fast and cheap transactions. Recent network updates aimed at cutting costs and speeding things up probably helped drive interest. BCH reached $480 on Kraken – a level it hadn’t touched since early January.

Other coins didn’t move much. Bitcoin stayed flat around $45,000. Ethereum barely budged.

Traders are watching these moves closely because they could signal broader shifts in crypto sentiment. Galaxy Digital sees potential for more gains, but they’re not betting the farm on it. The volatility is still there, and nobody wants to get caught holding the bag if sentiment turns.

Market caps tell the story too. UNI hit $5 billion according to CoinMarketCap data from February 13. That puts it firmly in the top tier of DeFi tokens. BCH reached $8 billion, cementing its spot as one of the leading Bitcoin alternatives. These aren’t small numbers – institutional money is clearly flowing in. See also: Bitcoin drops towards ,000 according to.

Grayscale added more BCH to its Digital Large Cap Fund on February 12. When one of the biggest crypto asset managers makes that kind of move, other institutions take notice. It’s basically a stamp of approval from the traditional finance world.

Coinbase reported a 30% jump in trading volumes for both coins compared to last week. The exchange said user engagement spiked as people looked for alternatives to Bitcoin’s steady but boring price action. UNI hit $9.20 on Binance – a 20% monthly gain that caught most analysts by surprise.

But here’s the thing – neither Uniswap Labs nor Bitcoin Cash developers said anything about the price moves. No press releases, no Twitter threads, no explanations. The community is left guessing what’s really driving the action.

Some think it’s just rotation into smaller caps. Others see fundamental improvements in both protocols paying off. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, but without official word from the teams, traders are flying blind.

Binance analysts pointed to increased DeFi attention as a key factor for UNI’s rally. Makes sense – decentralized finance is having a moment again after the centralized exchange disasters of 2022. People want control over their assets, and Uniswap gives them that.

BCH’s bigger block size is attracting users who can’t stomach Bitcoin’s high fees. When the main network gets congested, Bitcoin Cash looks pretty attractive. Transaction costs matter, especially for smaller traders who can’t afford to pay $20 in fees for a $100 trade. Related coverage: Bitcoin Falls Below , 000.

Kraken’s February 13 report noted the surge in BCH activity happened while Bitcoin stayed flat. That’s unusual – typically Bitcoin Cash follows Bitcoin’s lead. The divergence suggests something specific is driving BCH interest beyond just crypto market momentum.

February 14 could bring more action as the weekend trading kicks in. Asian markets often drive weekend crypto moves, and both UNI and BCH have strong followings in that region. Volume typically drops on weekends, but these coins might buck the trend.

No word yet from either development team about what’s next. The market waits for concrete news that could push prices higher or send them tumbling back down.

Institutional adoption patterns show interesting timing with these moves. MicroStrategy disclosed earlier this week they’re exploring DeFi protocols for treasury management. Several pension funds have quietly increased crypto allocations, with decentralized exchanges becoming more attractive after FTX’s collapse exposed centralized platform risks.

Regulatory clarity also plays a role here. The SEC’s recent statements about DeFi protocols operating within existing frameworks gave traders more confidence. Bitcoin Cash benefits from its clear commodity status, while Uniswap’s decentralized nature keeps it in safer regulatory territory than centralized competitors.

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Stańczak came aboard in 2025 after the exit of longtime chief Aya Miyaguchi amid criticism the foundation wasn't doing enough to push the Ethereum ecosystem.

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Strong BLS jobs data reduces near-term Fed rate-cut oddsA stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has tempered expectations for near‑term federal reserve rate cuts. Robust payroll gains signal ongoing labor‑market resilience, which tends to reduce urgency for early easing.

Historically, upside surprises in employment cool the case for immediate policy accommodation because they imply steady demand and potential persistence in underlying price pressures. That dynamic leaves policymakers seeking more evidence of disinflation and wage moderation before signaling a pivot.

What ‘rate-cut space’ means for Federal Reserve decisions“Rate‑cut space” is the policy room to lower the federal funds rate while still fulfilling the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. It reflects the interplay of payroll momentum, unemployment, wage growth, and inflation.

In practice, stronger labor data narrows that space because it suggests demand remains firm and inflation risks could linger. “The surprisingly robust payrolls reading … lessens the urgency for the Fed to cut rates,” said Anna Wong, chief U.S. economist at Bloomberg Economics.

BingX: a trusted exchange delivering real advantages for traders at every level.

When jobs data surprise to the upside, treasury yields and the U.S. dollar often firm as markets extend a higher‑for‑longer policy path. Equity benchmarks can wobble as discount‑rate expectations reset and valuation headwinds re‑price.

Gold prices eased after the strong U.S. jobs print dimmed hopes for near‑term cuts, as reported by Kitco. At the time of this writing, Bitcoin traded near $67,880 and crypto markets softened after the labor surprise, according to Investing.com.

CME FedWatch odds and upcoming data checkpointsFutures‑implied probabilities from CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicated slimmer odds of near‑term cuts following the BLS release. Upcoming inflation prints and wage data will be key checkpoints for confirming a durable disinflation trend.

How resilient payrolls, unemployment, and wages shape policy pathResilient hiring and contained unemployment reduce perceived downside risk in the real economy, limiting the need for rapid easing. Fitch Ratings noted that recent employment strength has diminished those downside risks, reinforcing a patient policy stance.

Wage growth remains pivotal: slower gains would support disinflation, while re‑acceleration could complicate progress toward the 2% objective. Policymakers will consider both headline and core inflation alongside labor slack indicators.

Why CME FedWatch gauges market-implied cut probabilitiesThe FedWatch tool translates fed funds futures pricing into probabilities for upcoming policy meetings. As traders adjust contracts to new data, the gauge updates in near real time, offering a concise snapshot of market‑implied policy paths.

These readings are not commitments by the Federal Reserve; they reflect traders’ aggregated expectations. Shifts after labor or inflation surprises often signal how quickly markets think conditions could justify a change in the policy rate.

FAQ about U.S. jobs reportHow did CME FedWatch odds change after the latest employment data?The FedWatch tool showed slimmer near‑term cut odds following the stronger BLS report.

When is the next plausible window for rate cuts if the labor market stays firm?Mid‑2026, possibly July, remains more plausible if strength persists, as reported by ainvest.com.

DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.

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Tomasz Stanczak will step down at the end of February, with Bastian Aue taking over alongside Hsiao-Wei Wang.

Coinbase just posted the kind of earnings report that makes two groups of people sweat at the same time.

The first group is obvious, COIN shareholders who saw the company swing into a loss while crypto prices and activity cooled. Coinbase reported about revenue of roughly $1.78B for the quarter and a loss of -$2.49 per share, when analysts were looking for a profit.

Inside Coinbase’s own materials, the story looks like a business still producing cash, but taking a real hit on the bottom line, with a quarterly net loss of $667M and adjusted EBITDA of $566M.

The second group is less obvious: people who do not own COIN at all but still rely on Coinbase’s plumbing.

If you bought spot Bitcoin ETFs through a brokerage app because you wanted exposure without the headache of wallets and keys, most of that Bitcoin ultimately sits with Coinbase.

When these ETFs launched, Coinbase became custodian for the majority of the category, including major products like BlackRock’s IBIT, where Coinbase is referenced in the fund’s materials via Coinbase Prime relationships.

Over time, the market has piled into ETF wrappers hard enough that Bitcoin ETPs have been reported holding about 7% of Bitcoin’s maximum supply, around 1.5 million BTC in that snapshot.

So when Coinbase “misses,” the emotional question people ask is simple, is the custodian in trouble?

That question is understandable, the framing is messy, and the numbers that fly around on social media can get silly fast. The real way to look at it is practical. Custody is meant to be boring. Trading is meant to be cyclical. Earnings are where those two truths collide.

Coinbase missed, and the miss landed on the most sensitive nerveCoinbase’s quarter fell short because the part of the business that looks like a casino during bull markets stopped acting like one.

Coinbase’s transaction revenue dropped to about $983M, with consumer transaction revenue down sharply. That tracks with what a lot of regular people have felt over the last few months, fewer “everyone is trading” moments, fewer viral coins, less late-night adrenaline.

This is also where Coinbase has been trying to change its identity. Subscription and services revenue came in around $727M in the quarter, and stablecoin revenue growth was highlighted as a tailwind in the same reporting.

In Coinbase’s own shareholder letter, the company also dropped a near-real-time datapoint, about $420M of transaction revenue through Feb 10, paired with a warning not to extrapolate too aggressively.

That is the push and pull. The market wants Coinbase to become steadier. The market also punishes Coinbase when the quarter shows how dependent crypto activity still is on mood.

Even the conversation around Coinbase’s business model has split into tribes.

On X, MilkRoad leaned hard into the “financial infrastructure” narrative and pointed to a growing lineup of products and more stable revenue streams.

On the other side, skeptics framed the quarter as a sign that institutions are pulling back and that regulation could crimp stablecoin-related revenue.

Both groups are reacting to the same fact, crypto has entered a phase where flows and policy can matter more than vibes, and Coinbase sits close to both.

The custody question, what happens if Coinbase has a bad yearWhen people hear “Coinbase is the custodian,” they often picture Coinbase taking directional risk on Bitcoin itself. That is not how custody is supposed to work.

ETF Bitcoin is held on behalf of the funds. The fund shareholders own shares in the ETF, the ETF owns the Bitcoin, the custodian safeguards it under a regulated framework. The bigger operational risks in custody are things like controls, compliance, operational resiliency, and the ability to meet the obligations of a qualified custodian, not whether Coinbase has a weak trading quarter.

That said, the reason this is such a charged topic is trust. Custody is the foundation that lets a retirement account holder say, “I’m fine owning Bitcoin exposure, someone serious is holding the coins.”

So the real question for 2026 is less dramatic and more specific, does anything in this earnings report change the probability of custody failures, disruptions, or a strategic retreat from the custody business.

The short answer is no; nothing in the public earnings materials suggests a retreat.

If anything, Coinbase has spent years trying to expand into the parts of crypto that behave more like traditional market infrastructure. The company is still presenting itself as a platform that wants to handle more institutional activity, more payments, more prime services, and more global derivatives.

That derivatives point matters. Last year, Coinbase announced the acquisition of Deribit, which is a very direct bet on the part of crypto markets where professionals spend most of their time.

Derivatives also tend to keep humming when spot volumes cool, because hedging and positioning never fully stop. Custody becomes one spoke in a wheel, and earnings become less hostage to retail mood swings.

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A quieter signal, US institutions have been acting risk offIf you want to understand why Coinbase’s quarter felt heavy, look at where the marginal buyer has been.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $4.57 billion in outflows across Nov and Dec, and around $1.8 billion has already left since the start of 2026. That kind of flow regime changes the entire feel of the market.

This is where the custody angle connects to the earnings angle.

When ETFs are in steady inflow, the whole ecosystem feels like it is being institutionalized in real time.

When ETFs leak for weeks, it feels like the grown ups have left the room, even if the long term story stays intact.

Coinbase sits in the middle of that emotional swing because it is both a trading venue and a major piece of custody infrastructure.

The policy subplot, stablecoin rewards are becoming the bargaining chipCoinbase’s CEO is also telling you, in plain language, where a lot of the real risk sits.

In an X post, Brian Armstrong said Coinbase is focused on a market structure “win-win,” and highlighted that GENIUS passed six months ago and is being re-litigated, with direct impact on customers. He also described ongoing engagement with the White House and banks.

Separately, our coverage has framed the current market structure negotiations around a trade-off, progress on a broader bill, in exchange for restrictions on stablecoin rewards.

This matters for the earnings conversation because stablecoin-related revenue is one of the cleaner, steadier ways for Coinbase to grow without relying on retail trading frenzy. If reward-like features get boxed in, Coinbase can still build a stablecoin business, but the packaging changes, the growth curve changes, and the investor narrative changes.

That is why some commentators are treating this quarter as a policy story as much as an earnings story.

So is Coinbase “in trouble,” and what should ETF holders watch nextCoinbase is not a fragile startup anymore. It is a public company with a diversified set of businesses, and with a strategic position in the parts of crypto that institutions actually use. A weak quarter is still a weak quarter, and the market is allowed to be disappointed, but disappointment is different from structural breakdown.

For the person who holds a spot Bitcoin ETF and just wants to know if the custodian risk went up, here is a grounded checklist that tells you more than the EPS headline.

First, watch custody concentration and market structure, because concentration cuts both ways. It gives ETFs a clean operational backbone, and it creates a single point of reputational failure for the category.Second, watch policy headlines around stablecoins and rewards, because the growth mix shift at Coinbase depends on it. The White House, banks, and crypto industry triangle that Armstrong described in public is not theater, it is the business environment.Third, watch flows and the US premium, because they telegraph whether institutions are leaning back in. The premium gap coverage and ETF outflow reporting are signals that the tape has been in a risk off mood, and Coinbase’s next few quarters are going to reflect that.Finally, watch whether Coinbase can keep executing on its “everything app” ambition, because the long term path out of cyclical earnings is to own more of the stack. Coinbase is pushing into stock trading and prediction markets in its broader expansion story, and that is part of the same effort to widen what Coinbase is.The simplest way to say it is this.

Coinbase missing earnings looks scary because it reminds everyone how cyclical crypto can be. Coinbase holding a large share of ETF custody looks scary because it concentrates trust. Put those together and you get a perfect social media storm.

The reality is less cinematic and more important.

Coinbase is trying to become the kind of company whose worst quarters look survivable, because the business is built on rails and services that people keep using when trading slows.

That is the bet investors are pricing, and that is the bet ETF holders should care about, because boring custody only stays boring when the operator stays stable, compliant, and committed to the job.

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Bitcoin price is consolidating near $68,000 after recent volatility and a 30% drop over the past month. With $2.5 billion in BTC options expiring today and Brazil reintroducing a bold bill to acquire up to 1 million BTC, markets are showing both caution and long-term interest.

Data from Glassnode shows that Bitcoin is trading within a $65,000 to $73,000 range, with open interest in options markets rising. Despite the sideways price action, derivatives activity suggests traders are preparing for larger price swings.

Open Interest and Volatility Climb Ahead of Options ExpiryGlassnode reports that BTC options open interest has climbed back to 452,000 BTC, nearing its late Q4 2025 high. This comes after the December 26 expiry caused a sharp drop in positions. The recent increase suggests that traders are once again positioning for movement.

Source: Glassnode

At the same time, volatility expectations are rising. One-month and three-month at-the-money implied volatility have gained around 10 points. This trend shows traders are pricing in larger forward moves despite the current market calm.

Skew, a measure of option pricing between puts and calls, moved from 6% to 18% in just a month. According to Glassnode, this indicates strong demand for downside protection. Rather than betting on gains, traders are hedging against further declines.

Brazil Reintroduces Strategic Bitcoin Reserve ProposalOn February 13, 2026, Brazil’s Congress reintroduced Bill 4501/2024, which proposes the creation of a Strategic Sovereign Bitcoin Reserve (RESBit). If passed, it would authorize Brazil to acquire up to 1 million BTC over five years. This move would make Brazil the world’s largest state Bitcoin holder.

Federal Deputy Luiz Gastão confirmed that the proposal includes a $68 billion expenditure plan. The reserve would support economic resilience and monetary sovereignty. The bill suggests Bitcoin should also serve as collateral for Drex, Brazil’s central bank digital currency.

The bill expands on earlier versions, now including legal guarantees for self-custody, free asset transfer, and transaction privacy. If passed, it would also prevent any restrictions on transfers to user-controlled wallets.

Brazil’s Bitcoin Plan Includes Tax Payments and ETF HoldingsThe proposed law goes beyond direct Bitcoin purchases. It allows public institutions to accumulate BTC through taxes paid in Bitcoin, hold BTC-backed spot ETFs during emergencies, and authorize government companies to acquire and store Bitcoin.

Bill 4501/2024 states that the Brazilian central bank and Ministry of Finance will manage these assets. Semi-annual reports to Congress would provide updates on Bitcoin custody, performance, and usage. The Internal Revenue Service would have 12 months to build the infrastructure for this system.

Deputy Gastão said these actions are necessary to protect citizens’ purchasing power and prepare the economy for digital transformation. Congressman Eros Biondini, the bill’s original author, previously described RESBit as a move to reduce inflation risk and promote economic innovation.

Global Reserve Trends and BTC Price ReactionBrazil’s move aligns with a growing global trend. Other countries exploring Bitcoin reserves include Germany, France, and the Philippines. Germany’s AfD party, France’s lawmakers, and the Philippine Congress have all proposed national BTC strategies to counter inflation and strengthen sovereignty.

As Brazil’s proposal advances, Bitcoin traders are watching for how institutional demand could influence price recovery. While BTC remains below its $74,000 max pain level for options expiry, long-term holders may see renewed confidence if such national-level buying becomes law.

BTC’s current price near $68,000 keeps bulls cautious. Yet with Brazil potentially entering the market as a buyer of up to 1 million BTC, traders are positioning for possible upside. Combined with rising open interest, higher implied volatility, and sovereign demand, Bitcoin’s next move could break out of its current range.

The US economy is starting 2026 with an uncomfortable split-screen scenario that is complicating the outlook for Bitcoin's recovery towards $100,000.

While Wall Street credit pricing still looks calm, the “real economy” stress gauges are flashing late-cycle warning lights.

This disconnect matters for Bitcoin because its path to $100,000 is no longer just about crypto-native catalysts. It is increasingly about whether the next macro downdraft forces a liquidation phase that consumes the calendar year.

So, investors hoping for a straight line to six figures are facing a formidable obstacle: a consumer and corporate credit squeeze that threatens to drain liquidity from risk assets before the Federal Reserve can pivot to a rescue.

The consumer debt wallThe clearest red flag facing the market is the deteriorating state of the American consumer.

The New York Fed’s latest Household Debt and Credit report paints a grim picture of a populace leveraging up to maintain living standards. Total household debt rose to $18.8 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2025.

US Household Debt (Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York)This represents an increase of $191 billion in a single quarter, leaving aggregate balances about $4.6 trillion above the pre-pandemic level.

The sheer volume of debt is concerning, but the quality of that debt is where the real alarm bells are ringing.

The report shows that 12.7% of credit-card balances were 90 or more days delinquent in the fourth quarter of 2025.

This marks a stark return to the elevated stress levels seen in the early 2010s, suggesting that the post-pandemic savings buffer has been fully eroded for a significant portion of the population.

When drilling down into the demographics, the signal becomes even harder to ignore.

In New York Fed charts tracking transitions into serious delinquency (defined as 90 or more days late) for credit cards, younger cohorts are performing notably worse than older ones.

The 18–29 and 30–39 age groups are running materially higher delinquency rates than households aged 40 and above.

This is not just a sobering credit statistic. It serves as a forward indicator for discretionary spending and employment sensitivity.

Younger borrowers are more exposed to rent inflation, rely on revolving credit to bridge gaps, and experience higher income volatility.

These are the exact demographics that drive retail crypto adoption, and their financial distress could accelerate a market downturn as layoffs spread.

Corporate distress acceleratingWhile households are feeling the pinch, corporate distress is also rising.

Official bankruptcy filings in the US rose 11% in the 12-month period ending December 31, 2025, according to data from the Administrative Office of the US Courts.

However, the more market-moving development is the accelerating pace of large corporate cases.

Bloomberg has reported that at least six major companies sought court protection each week over a three-week period beginning Jan. 10.

This represents an intensity of corporate failure not seen since the early pandemic months, suggesting that the “higher for longer” rate environment is finally breaking zombie companies that survived on cheap capital.

Distressed-market commentary has highlighted even more alarming figures. Some observers have noted that 18 companies with liabilities exceeding $50 million filed for bankruptcy over a three-week period.

While this tally is best treated as an unofficial tracker metric rather than a standardized government series, it aligns with the broader trend of deteriorating corporate health.

The liquidity trapIn light of these events, the question for crypto investors is why these traditional finance problems would stop Bitcoin from tagging $100,000 in 2026.

The answer lies in the mechanics of a crisis. The “deepening crisis” phase typically first hits Bitcoin in the least flattering way: as a high-beta liquidity asset.

When credit tightens and defaults rise, investors usually prioritize cash. They shorten duration and sell liquid, volatile positions to cover margin calls or build defensive buffers.

For crypto, that liquidation impulse now runs through a very specific, highly reactive funnel: Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and other institutional products.

This dynamic is already visible in fund flows. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows of more than $600 million within the last two days alone, according to SoSo Value data.

Meanwhile, the selling pressure is not limited to a few days, as the 12 Bitcoin ETF products have recorded only two weeks of net inflows since the beginning of this year.

US Bitcoin ETFs Weekly Flows Since the Beginning of 2026 (Source: SoSo Value)In a benign macro backdrop, that kind of persistent outflow can still be absorbed by the market.

However, that kind of consistent selling could become reflexive in a deteriorating macro backdrop.

In this case, redemptions pressure the price, price weakness triggers further de-risking models, and volatility itself becomes a reason for risk managers to reduce exposure further.

Policy paralysisMeanwhile, Bitcoin bulls counter that crises eventually attract policy support, and the flagship digital asset has historically responded explosively when liquidity conditions turn favorable.

However, the timing for 2026 is complicated by the Federal Reserve not yet being in “panic mode.”

The central bank held the policy rate at a range of 3.5%–3.75% at its January meeting. While this is lower than the peak rates of previous years, it remains restrictive enough to pressure borrowers.

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At the same time, the New York Fed has been conducting “reserve management” purchases. They are buying about $40 billion per month in Treasury bills and short-dated government bonds through mid-April.

These purchases are explicitly framed as technical operations rather than crisis-era quantitative easing.

If financial stress worsens materially, that technical line can blur quickly in markets’ minds. Still, the key for Bitcoin is timing.

The market often sells first and only rallies later when easing is unmistakable. If the Fed waits for credit spreads to blow out before cutting aggressively, Bitcoin could suffer a significant drawdown before the liquidity rescue arrives.

Downside targets and revised expectationsThat timing risk is exactly why some major bank analysts are urging caution.

Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick has warned that crypto could see “one final wave” of selling pressure first. He flagged downside risks toward $50,000 for BTC, while arguing that this level represents “buy zones” for a later recovery.

Notably, data from CryptoQuant indicate that Bitcoin’s ultimate bear-market bottom is around $55,000.

Bitcoin Realized Price (Source: CryptoQuant)Meanwhile, Kendrick also cut his end-of-year BTC target to $100,000 (down from $150,000).

According to him, the message is not “perma-bearish,” but rather a recognition that the path to higher prices likely runs through a significant drawdown first.

Essentially, the narrative that BTC could reach $100,000 this year is weakened by a deepening US financial squeeze that is compressing the runway.

If Bitcoin spends the next few months digesting a macro-driven deleveraging phase, then the “reflation rally” window shifts later into 2026.

In this case, hitting $100,000 becomes less about whether BTC can rally and more about whether there is enough time left in the year to do so after the washout.

Three paths for Bitcoin’s $100,000 questionA clean way to frame the year ahead is a three-case scenario model that keeps the focus on timing.

ScenarioMacro setupFlow and positioning signalTypical BTC pathWhat it implies for $100,000 in 2026Base case (soft landing, messy credit)Delinquencies rise, but do not cascade into a jobs shock, corporate stress stays containedETF outflows stabilize after recent net negatives (ETF daily prints of -$276.3M on Feb. 11 and -$410.2M on Feb. 12 are not repeated)Wide range trading with sharper rallies and pullbacksLate-year coin flip rather than a base expectationHard landing (defaults → jobs → spreads)Corporate failures and consumer strain feed into unemployment, spreads widen from ~2.84%Forced selling dominates, CoinShares-style outflows remain heavy (recently $1.7B weekly)Downside first, BTC can plausibly test $50,000Unlikely to hit $100,000 in-calendar-year because the washout consumes timeFast pivot (stress forces easing)Data deteriorates quickly enough to trigger faster cuts from 3.5%–3.75% and more visible liquidity supportOutflows slow materially and then flip, ETF wrapper turns from a drag into support“Dump first, then rip,” often requires a capitulation lowPossible, but still timing-dependent, a rally may arrive later after a low is setThe base case is a soft landing with messy credit in which delinquencies rise but do not cascade into a jobs shock.

Here, corporate distress remains meaningful but contained and ETF flows stabilize after a period of outflows.

In that world, Bitcoin can trade in a wide range, and $100,000 becomes a late-year coin flip rather than a base expectation. The upside is possible, but it depends on the market regaining confidence before the calendar runs out.

The “hard landing” scenario involves corporate failures and consumer strain feeding into unemployment. Spreads would widen, and forced selling would dominate.

In that case, Bitcoin can plausibly reach the downside zone Kendrick flagged before any durable rally begins. A later recovery may still occur, but $100,000 in calendar year looks unlikely because the washout phase consumes the period when momentum would normally build.

The third scenario is a “fast pivot,” where data deteriorates quickly enough to trigger faster cuts and more visible liquidity support. That can produce a 2020-style sequence of a dump first, followed by a rip, but it still may require a capitulation low before the upside.

The bottom line is that macro stress can cut both ways. It can eventually justify easier policy and better liquidity conditions, which have historically supported Bitcoin.

However, that same stress can prevent Bitcoin from reaching $100,000 on schedule, as the first phase of a deepening squeeze is often the least favorable for crypto.

Unless policy support arrives early enough, and ETF flows flip back to sustained inflows, the path of least resistance in early 2026 looks more like downside and turbulence first.

So, a $100,000 print becomes less about whether Bitcoin can rally, and more about whether the market gets through the washout fast enough for the rally to fit inside the year.

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In brief U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of $410 million Thursday, with six of the past 10 days seeing negative flows Outflows were led by BlackRock's IBIT, which shed $157.6 million. Capital is rotating into CME derivatives rather than exiting crypto entirely, analysts noted, while warning of "head-fake rallies" through mid-2026 until credit markets reprice risk. Spot Bitcoin ETFs bled $410.4 million on Thursday, extending a volatile stretch of outflows as institutional investors reposition against a murky macro backdrop.

BlackRock's IBIT led the exodus with $157.6 million in outflows, followed by Fidelity's FBTC at $104.1 million and Grayscale's GBTC at $59.1 million, per data from SoSoValue. The selling brings the number of negative days in the past two weeks up to six for the products, which have now shed nearly $1.5 billion over that span.

The erratic flow pattern suggests that institutional conviction is wavering, analysts told Decrypt, with retail traders left to navigate a market that appears directionless despite significant daily volume.

"On one side, Kevin's Fed nomination has lowered near-term rate cut expectations, sparking rapid repricing in equities, bonds, and crypto," Christophe Diserens, chief wealth officer at SwissBorg, told Decrypt. "Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed index hit extreme fear levels unseen since 2023, with negative momentum fueled by ongoing bear market narratives on social media."

A structural tug-of-warOn the other side, the long-term outlook remains positive, according to Diserens, who added that “adoption keeps expanding,” with JPMorgan projecting a $266,000 Bitcoin target.

This tension between “short-term panic and long-term optimism” is driving the volatility in daily ETF flows, according to the SwissBorg analyst.

The wild swings are not random—they reflect a structural tug-of-war beneath the surface, Nick Motz, CEO of ORQO Group and CIO of Soil, told Decrypt. "You've got institutions that got in late 2025 now taking profits, and on the other side, there's a messy short-covering cycle playing out in real time,” he said.

Motz explained that as Bitcoin hovers around the $75,000 range—roughly where mining production costs sit—institutional algos are kicking off automated liquidations tied to hawkish Federal Reserve expectations. The result is large outflows from certain ETFs, but the analyst noted that much of that capital isn't leaving crypto entirely.

Instead, he argued, "it's shifting into more compliant derivatives channels like the CME." That results in, "a choppy, directionless tape that honestly looks broken to most retail traders.” Motz referred to the situation as a “liquidity mirage,” in which, “there's activity everywhere but no real direction, and it's messing with sentiment badly."

Volatility set to continueMotz expects the volatility to persist through at least the first half of 2026, especially with the recent drop burning out 2025's euphoria. “But the structural reflation trade everyone's waiting on probably doesn't kick in until the second half of 2026," he said.

The "reflation trade" refers to a widespread, consensus-driven investment strategy that bets on a sustained period of economic growth and rising prices, driven by policy shifts rather than just temporary recovery.

However, the macro backdrop offers little relief at the current stage, the Soil analyst added, explaining that the global M2 money supply growth has flatlined, and high-yield credit spreads are starting to creep wider, which is a textbook liquidity drain for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Instead, Motz warned to watch out for “head-fake rallies,” which are “sharp moves up that look convincing but are really just trapping late buyers before the next leg down.”

"The market probably doesn't find a real floor until credit markets finish repricing risk, which honestly could take us into summer,” he said. “So if you're expecting resolution anytime soon... I wouldn't hold my breath. Choppy, volatile, sideways action is the base case for a while."

Users on prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, remain predominantly bearish on Bitcoin’s outlook, placing a 61% chance on its next move taking it to $55,000 rather than $84,000—up more than 10% from the start of the week.

Bitcoin has been stuck trading between the $62,000 and $71,000 range since early February, with no signs of a breakout. Over the past 24 hours, it is down 0.6%, and is trading at around $67,365, according to CoinGecko data.

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TokenEscrow Upgrade: XRPL’s XLS‑85 amendment expands escrow beyond XRP, enabling issued tokens like RLUSD, IOUs, and tokenized assets to be locked under protocol‑level conditions. Institutional DeFi Shift: XRP contributor Vet says the upgrade transforms XRPL into an opportunity market, supporting institutional‑grade workflows without external smart contracts or custodians. TradFi Impact: The new functionality enables automated OTC deals, vesting schedules, and compliance‑ready structures, offering traditional finance players a native mechanism for secure asset coordination.
XRPL has entered what XRP contributor Vet calls an opportunity market, driven by the activation of the XLS‑85 TokenEscrow amendment. The upgrade marks a structural shift for the network, expanding escrow functionality beyond XRP and enabling issued assets such as stablecoins, IOUs, and tokenized instruments to operate under verifiable on‑chain conditions. For developers and institutions, this change introduces a more flexible environment for building financial tools that rely on predictable, protocol‑level asset controls.

It never was so easy to be optimistic.

We are literally upgrading TradFi with XRP DeFi and best in class payment infrastructure.

Its the opportunity market.

— Vet (@Vet_X0) February 12, 2026

TokenEscrow Expands XRPL Beyond Single‑Asset Escrow Before XLS‑85, only XRP could be locked in escrow. With the amendment now live at ledger #102204929, XRPL allows any IOU or Multi‑Purpose Token to be time‑locked, condition‑locked, or coordinated across multiple parties. Vet describes this as a foundational moment, transforming XRPL from a single‑asset system into a multitoken infrastructure capable of supporting stablecoins like RLUSD, meme coins, and tokenized financial instruments. The shift is technical, but its implications are immediately practical for builders seeking predictable settlement behavior.

A New Foundation for Institutional‑Grade DeFi The amendment enables workflows that previously required external smart contracts or custodial intermediaries. By embedding escrow logic directly into the protocol, XRPL now supports decentralized alternatives to traditional settlement flows. Vet emphasizes that optimism in this environment comes from protocol upgrades rather than speculation, positioning XRPL as a market where real financial resources can be deployed with confidence. This aligns with the growing interest in institutional‑grade DeFi tools that prioritize reliability and compliance.

Unlocking Automated Financial Structures Escrow on XRPL allows assets to be locked until a specific time or until a cryptographic condition is met. With XLS‑85, this applies to issued tokens like RLUSD, meme coins, and tokenized physical assets. These capabilities open the door to automated OTC deals, vesting schedules, and compliance‑embedded structures without centralized escrow agents. The amendment is not designed as a flashy feature; instead, it serves as core infrastructure for more advanced financial coordination.

TradFi Implications and Market Context For traditional finance participants experimenting with stablecoins or tokenized treasuries, XLS‑85 removes a key barrier to smart custodial workflows. It offers a native mechanism for secure asset handling without smart contracts. Meanwhile, XRP trades at $1.36, down more than 2%, reflecting broader market movement rather than the long‑term significance of the upgrade.

The Brazilian Congress has reintroduced bill 4501of 2024, proposing the acquisition of up to 1 million BTC for Brazil’s strategic Bitcoin reserve. The bill significantly expands the scope of the previous document, establishing that RESbit (Strategic Sovereign Bitcoin Reserve) will accumulate the BTC over 5 years.

Initially, the bill proposed spending up to 5% of Brazil’s foreign reserves to diversify the national treasury’s assets with an asset immune to inflation. The asset should also be immune from third-party confiscation, which the country’s central bank will manage as part of the national treasury. 

Additionally, the bill proposes a range of changes, including incentivizing company Bitcoin holdings and mining, accepting Bitcoin payments for federal taxes, and banning the sale of Bitcoin seized by judicial authorities.

It also establishes that the reserve should serve as an asset diversification mechanism, reducing reliance on traditional assets. 

Federal Deputy says bill proposes $68B expenditure for 1M BTC Luiz Gastão, a Federal Deputy for the state of Ceará, emphasizes that the bill will include spending at least $68 billion for the 1 million BTC acquisition plan if approved by the necessary commissions and passed by the Brazilian Congress. The BTC stash would exceed the reserves of nations like the U.S. and China. 

Deputy Gastão also stresses that the bill guarantees fundamental rights related to the use and custody of digital assets. These include the right to self-custody, the free transfer of assets, and the confidentiality of transactions, except when express authorization or a specific court order is issued.

However, it faces conflict with current central bank regulations, which do not yet recognize BTC as a reserve asset. Any administrative action restricting transfers to user-controlled wallets shall also be declared null and void.  

According to Gastão, these guarantees are essential to stimulate investment, consolidate an innovative economic ecosystem, and create legal certainty. The text also argues that protecting individual autonomy in the digital environment is compatible with the goals of preserving public funds and strengthening the population’s purchasing power. 

Meanwhile, in addition to direct BTC purchases, the bill authorizes other forms of accumulation, such as collecting taxes paid in Bitcoin, temporarily holding shares of BTC-backed spot ETFs in emergencies, and even hoarding by public companies. 

On the other hand, the management of these assets would be divided between Brazil’s central bank and the Ministry of Finance. The Internal Revenue Service would have 12 months after the law is enacted to create the necessary technological infrastructure.

The next steps include analysis by the Finance and Taxation Committee, the Constitution and Justice Committee, and the Science, Technology, and Innovation Committee.

Bill proposes using Bitcoin as Drex collateral Bill 4501/2024 further proposes that Bitcoin serve as collateral for the digital real (Drex), the Brazilian central bank’s digital currency. The law, if enacted, positions Bitcoin as both an investment and a tool for monetary sovereignty. 

Meanwhile, the author of the bill, Congressman Eros Biondini (PL-MG), who has also been advocating for the crypto market in Congress, recognizes the scarcity and security properties of the Bitcoin network. He considers these characteristics superior or complementary to traditional gold and dollar reserves.

Additionally, the Brazilian central bank would be required to publish semi-annual reports about the project to the National Congress. The documents will detail the state-owned portfolio’s custody, transactions, and performance. 

There are also plans to partner with international organizations to exchange best-practice experiences. Article 6 addresses the accountability of RESBit managers, providing for administrative and criminal sanctions for mismanagement or non-compliance with the law’s regulations, including the obligation to reimburse public funds.

The Executive Branch must carry out the regulation of the future law within 180 days of its publication.

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Bitcoin’s key indicators went bearish. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost dropped a warning on February 13 that pretty much every major on-chain metric for Bitcoin is flashing red signals right now.

The data comes from a heatmap tracking ten different network measurements, and it’s not looking good for bulls. MVRV Z-Score measures how profitable investors are overall, while Trader Realized Price and Trader On-chain Profit Margin focus on short-term traders’ wins and losses. All of them show red. Darkfrost said this makes new Bitcoin highs unlikely anytime soon. The bearish readings cover various network dimensions, from investor profitability to trading momentum. Each metric tells part of the story about where Bitcoin stands right now.

Things got worse fast.

The red signals got stronger when Bitcoin’s price started falling, but some indicators already turned bearish before the drop hit. Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse and CryptoQuant Network Activity Index went red early in 2025. The Flow Pulse tracks transactions between spot and derivatives exchanges, and it shows there’s basically no speculative momentum happening. Network Activity Index measures transaction volume on Bitcoin’s blockchain, and it’s been mostly bearish since late 2024.

Most other indicators flipped red after November 2025’s price drop. Trader On-Chain Profit Margin held out the longest, staying positive through January’s brief recovery before finally turning bearish during the latest fall.

Short-term Bitcoin holders are selling at losses now. CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn highlighted this trend in another X post, showing that investors who bought within the last 155 days are moving tokens to exchanges. That’s usually what happens when people want to sell. The increase in loss deposits to exchanges suggests these investors are giving up, which analysts call capitulation.

Bitcoin trades around $65,300 right now. That’s down more than 2% over the past week.

CryptoQuant’s data shows the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse stayed red since the first half of 2025, and that’s a big deal. Without speculative interest flowing between exchanges, it’s hard to see how momentum shifts. The metric tracks Bitcoin movement between spot and derivatives platforms, so when it stays bearish, traders aren’t really betting on big moves up or down.

The Network Activity Index hasn’t shown much bullish activity since leaving high levels in late 2024. Sure, there are occasional spikes, but transaction volumes on Bitcoin’s blockchain didn’t return to previous highs. Network activity staying flat shows the broader market’s hesitation, according to analysts watching these numbers. See also: Monero Slides Below Key Support as.

Maartunn’s observations about short-term holders fit with what everyone else sees. These investors bought Bitcoin within 155 days and now they’re selling at losses. Capitulation behavior like this often signals market bottoms, but it also means more selling pressure as holders move assets to exchanges.

Bitcoin’s current price of roughly $65,300 reflects cautious market sentiment. Traders and analysts keep watching these on-chain indicators, but the lack of bullish signals continues weighing on everyone’s mood. The market seems stuck in waiting mode.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju noted on February 13 that shifts in on-chain metrics can serve as early warning signs. He said traders need careful analysis of these indicators to navigate ongoing market uncertainty. The CEO didn’t specify exactly what traders should look for next.

Market participants stay cautious while Bitcoin hovers around $65,300. The sustained red signals across key metrics suggest traders won’t commit to bullish positions yet. Trading volumes on major exchanges remain subdued, reflecting this hesitant sentiment.

But there’s more context here. Glassnode reported on February 12 that Bitcoin’s on-chain activity shows declining new addresses. New Bitcoin addresses dropped about 15% compared to the previous month, suggesting waning interest among new investors at current price levels.

Binance saw Bitcoin futures trading volume fall 20% month-over-month as of February 10. That decline in trading activity on one of the largest crypto exchanges highlights the broader market’s reluctance to engage in significant speculative trading right now. Related coverage: Bitcoin ETF Inflows Reverse with 6.

JP Morgan analysts pointed out in a February 11 client note that Bitcoin’s recent price movements came from macroeconomic factors rather than internal crypto market dynamics. They said Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional financial markets remains strong, particularly given recent economic data releases. The bank didn’t provide specific correlation numbers.

Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest published a contrasting view on February 9. ARK’s report said short-term indicators are bearish, but the long-term outlook for Bitcoin stays positive. ARK’s analysis suggests that despite current volatility, Bitcoin’s fundamentals like network security and institutional adoption continue strengthening. The firm acknowledged challenges from current on-chain metrics but didn’t back down from its bullish long-term stance.

The lack of speculative activity could persist unless market dynamics change significantly. With Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse and Network Activity Index staying bearish, the market seems stuck in a holding pattern. Traders are waiting for something to alter the current trajectory, but that catalyst isn’t clear yet.

Historical precedent shows similar metric clusters preceded major Bitcoin corrections in 2022 and 2018. During those periods, recovery took 3-6 months after all ten indicators simultaneously flashed red signals.

Coinbase reported a 35% drop in retail trading activity during the first week of February, while institutional Bitcoin purchases through Grayscale and BlackRock ETFs declined 40% compared to January levels. Meanwhile, Bitcoin mining difficulty adjusted downward by 2.1% on February 8, the first negative adjustment since December 2024.

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Published: Feb 13, 2026 at 13:58

While the broader market is paralyzed by the "Warsh Shock" and a strengthening U.S. Dollar, Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) has effectively become the "buyer of last resort" for the entire corporate world.

According to a landmark report released on February 12, 2026, Michael Saylor’s firm accounted for a staggering 97.5% of all corporate Bitcoin acquisitions over the past month. This dominance comes as the company continues to execute its massive $21 billion "ATM" (At-The-Market) equity offering to fund its aggressive "Orange" treasury strategy.

The "NAV discount" trap Despite this relentless accumulation, the market is signaling a warning. For the first time in the current cycle, Strategy Inc.’s stock is trading at a significant discount (approx. 0.87x) to its Net Asset Value (NAV). Traditionally, the stock traded at a premium, allowing the company to issue shares and buy Bitcoin "accretively."

Now, with the stock trading below the value of its BTC holdings, the "perpetual growth machine" is under immense pressure. Analysts are watching the $77,000 price level—identified by JPMorgan this morning as a critical support zone—to see if the company can maintain its leverage without triggering a broader institutional panic.

The $6 billion government shadow Adding to the tension is the news that the U.S. government’s own "de facto" reserve — the 127,271 BTC seized from the Prince Group — has lost $6 billion in potential value since its peak.

This loss is fueling a heated debate in Washington over the Clarity Act, as victims of crypto scams demand the government liquidate the assets rather than holding them in a Strategic Reserve while prices slide. For Strategy Inc., the goal is to outlast this volatility, betting that their 713,502 BTC war chest will eventually become the "pristine collateral" of a new global financial system, regardless of the short-term bloodbath.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics just released the January 2026 Consumer Price Index, and inflation came in lower than expected. Consumer prices rose 2.4% on an annual basis, below the 2.5% that economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast. The monthly increase was 0.2%, again below the expected 0.3%.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, came in at 2.5% year-over-year, matching forecasts. This is a clear improvement from December’s numbers, where headline inflation sat at 2.7% and core at 2.6%.

The report was delayed due to the brief government shutdown earlier this month.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $67,210, up 0.26% in the past hour. Ethereum is at $1,968, up 0.48%. The full price impact remains to be seen.

What This Means for the Fed and Crypto MarketsBitcoin has been reacting sharply to inflation data in recent months. The reason is straightforward. CPI shapes expectations around Federal Reserve rate cuts, and rate expectations directly affect liquidity in markets.

When December’s hotter CPI print came in, Bitcoin dropped between 5% and 8%. A softer reading in November supported a 2% to 3% rebound in BTC. This pattern shows how closely crypto tracks these reports now.

Before today’s release, CME FedWatch showed a 90.3% chance that the Fed would hold rates steady at its next meeting. A cooler print like this one could push rate cut expectations forward, but the Fed does not meet again until March.

Worth noting, the US has now gone six straight years with inflation above the Fed’s 2% target. One better month does not change that.

Food Prices and Jobs Data Add to the PictureNot everything is improving. Food prices rose 2.9% year-over-year in January, with coffee and beef driving much of that increase.

On the jobs side, data released earlier this week showed the US added just 181,000 jobs across 2025.

Nicole Bachaud, an economist, said, “The 181,000 jobs that were added across 2025 really starkly show how challenging the labor market was and how little movement on either side there really has been.”

The softer CPI gives the Fed more room, but with sticky food prices and a slow labor market, the bigger picture is still mixed. Bitcoin traders will be watching closely over the next few hours.

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