Market Signal Briefing

Nvidia stock is up 750% over the past three years, while this non-tech AI stock is "only" up around 55%.

Nvidia (NVDA +0.94%), a maker of high-power computer chips, is the poster child of the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution. Wall Street has pushed the stock sharply higher, as the AI opportunity currently seems unlimited. That enthusiasm probably won't last, if Wall Street history is any guide. Which is why you may be better off buying Digital Realty (DLR 0.69%) as your long-term AI play.

What does Digital Realty do? Digital Realty is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns data centers. The business model is more complex than that of a traditional property-owning REIT, but the basic premise is the same. Digital Realty leases out space in its properties to tenants. That said, what gets housed in a data center is really just a lot of computers.

Image source: Getty Images.

This is important for artificial intelligence because AI is really just algotithms running on lots of compute power. Nvidia's chips run AI, but those chips have to live somewhere. That somewhere is usually a data center of some type. Digital Realty is increasingly leaning in to this developing niche, adopting technology that will make it easier for companies to house their AI tech in its properties.

There's more opportunity than you may think While there's no telling what company will eventually lead the AI race, it is pretty clear that AI will have to live somewhere. Right now, investors think the winner is Nvidia, which is why the stock is up 750% over the last three years. By contrast, Digital Realty is "only" up about 55%. That's impressive, but it clearly isn't seeing the same enthusiasm as more direct AI plays.

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Only, there's a longer-term picture here to consider. AI will always need to live somewhere, and each new AI-related customer increases cash flow, supporting Digital Realty's 2.7% yield and expanding its dividend-paying ability. That's step one.

However, many of the AI industry's leaders are building their own data centers. Digital Realty is a logical acquirer of those data centers if, perhaps when, the companies that built them look to sell. That's step two. And it means that, even if Wall Street sours on the AI trade, Digital Realty could still see years of growth ahead for its pick-and-shovel AI business.

To be fair, Digital Realty's stock price has handily outperformed the average REIT. So there's some AI hype built into the shares. However, if you look at the risk-versus-reward profile of AI stocks, it will likely appeal to more conservative investors who want to add some exposure to this odd sector.

These overvalued tech stocks have attracted many baby boomer investors who may be in for an unpleasant surprise.

Value is in the eye of the beholder, and some people are still loading up on overvalued tech stocks that face challenging headwinds.

Despite the seemingly low odds of meaningful long-term growth, older investors are still piling into these big-name stocks. They usually gravitate toward household names that have been around for decades, but that doesn't ensure positive long-term returns. While you never know what can happen in the stock market, some stocks have a lower probability of success than others, including these picks.

Image source: Getty Images.

Tesla's EV business is losing ground Tesla (TSLA 0.01%) makes most of its money from selling EVs, which is a declining business. The company still has a $1 trillion market cap because Elon Musk is the CEO, and it is working on a pivot to physical artificial intelligence (AI). Musk's business acumen, Tesla's innovation, and the fact that it's been lumped with household tech companies through the "Magnificent Seven" moniker are some of the reasons baby boomers may gravitate toward Tesla.

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The bullish scenario is that Tesla's Cybercabs become a high-margin ride-hailing service, and Optimus robots are in most households. That can happen, but there aren't any meaningful, tangible sales results for that part of the business. There needs to be more than hype to justify a $1 trillion market cap.

Tesla vehicle sales accounted for 77% of total results, and that part of the business was down 11% year over year. The expiration of EV tax credits, Musk's waning popularity among liberal-leaning customers, and intense EV competition in China are three major headwinds that can push the stock lower.

SpaceX and xAI are separate entities from Tesla. Justifying the valuation comes down to how well Optimus robots and Cybercabs perform, but it's not like Tesla is the only company competing for these opportunities. The opportunity is exciting, but a 204 forward P/E ratio should concern investors.

Intel still faces a long road ahead Intel (INTC 1.22%) is a speculative turnaround story, but it's also a legacy blue chip tech company that has an appeal with boomers. The U.S. government recently took a 10% stake in the company, suggesting it will receive plenty of capital to help it catch up in the AI race. It doesn't hurt to get government support, and that's the main reason Intel stock has almost doubled since mid-September.

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However, government backing does not guarantee a transformation, even for a company that has become a household name for many boomers. Even if Intel brings more manufacturing back to the U.S., the stock could stay flat or even recede to where it was before the government's 10% stake was announced.

Intel told investors when announcing the news that it had invested $108 billion in capital and $79 billion in research and development over the past five years to "[expand] U.S.-based manufacturing capacity and process technology."

The government's 10% stake is a small percentage compared to the amount of money Intel has already invested. For all of those investments, Intel ended up with a stock that has dropped by more than 25% over that five-year stretch.

Revenue growth has come to a crawl in recent quarters, with some quarters featuring year-over-year revenue declines. It's a bit too early to call Intel a winner, and that may warrant a correction later.

Bitcoin sometimes sells off hard on days with no crypto headlines. A recurring driver sits outside crypto: a yen-funded carry unwind that forces cross-asset deleveraging, then transmits into BTC through thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and fast position reduction in derivatives.

Here's the core mechanism in one line: if USD/JPY moves fast enough to trigger margin and VAR cuts, BTC can sell off like it got bad news even when crypto headlines stay quiet.

Japan’s FX officials have started speaking in a way that markets treat as a constraint. On Feb. 12, 2026, Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, said Tokyo “has not lowered its guard” against FX volatility after a sharp move in the yen, and he said authorities are watching markets with “high urgency” while staying in close contact with US counterparts.

When messaging shifts toward urgency, carry positioning often becomes more sensitive to speed and to levels that traders associate with intervention risk. That turns USD/JPY into a “don’t get caught” market where traders cut carry exposure earlier and faster.

BIS data helps frame the stakes: yen-denominated loans to non-banks resident outside Japan rose to about ¥40 trillion by March 2024, roughly $250 billion using BIS’ conversion at the time. A channel with that scale can influence global risk conditions, and crypto trades inside those conditions.

The effect on crypto is mechanical. A carry unwind can start in FX, spread into equities and credit via higher volatility and tighter risk limits, then reach Bitcoin as a risk reduction flow. Bitcoin’s price action can look idiosyncratic in the moment, then line up cleanly with global deleveraging once you track what happened to funding conditions and cross-asset volatility.

Yen carry trade, in plain EnglishA carry trade borrows in a low-rate currency and invests in assets with a higher expected return, collecting the rate differential as long as the funding leg stays stable. The yen served as a funding currency for years because Japan ran very low policy rates, and a large domestic savings base supported cheap funding.

Carry thrives when volatility stays contained. Low FX volatility reduces the probability of a fast mark-to-market move against the funding leg that holds the trade together. That lets market participants run more leverage for essentially the same risk budget.

The risk sits in the same place as it does for every carry trade: the funding currency can strengthen quickly, or FX volatility can jump, raising the cost of holding leveraged exposure. At that point, carry income becomes secondary to managing margin requirements and risk limits.

BIS Bulletin No. 90 describes the transmission clearly in its review of the August 2024 turbulence. A spike in volatility tightened margin constraints, and that pressure forced deleveraging in positions associated with carry trades. This is the bridge into crypto: a volatility shock that forces deleveraging across portfolios often turns into correlated selling of liquid risk assets, including bitcoin.

What changed in Japan: urgency, intervention sensitivity, and faster position reductionJapan’s FX messaging matters because it can alter how traders model the distribution of outcomes. When officials emphasize “high urgency” and keep intervention risk in the conversation, positioning tends to become more reactive to fast moves.

On Feb. 12, the yen strengthened to around 153.02 per dollar after rebounding from nearly 160, a level widely treated as a potential intervention line. The move stirred speculation around rate checks, which markets often interpret as a precursor signal around intervention optics.

A fast swing like that matters even when the macro story looks unchanged. A large share of leveraged risk books operate with speed-based limits and VAR-style controls that tighten when volatility picks up. When USD/JPY moves several figures quickly, it can compress risk budgets across multi-asset portfolios, and that compression leads to broad exposure cuts.

On Feb. 13, the yen was on track for its strongest weekly gain in about 15 months, up close to 3% for the week. A weekly move of that magnitude in a funding currency can influence the behavior of carry participants, especially those running leverage through derivatives, where margin requirements are the quickest to reprice. Reuters also noted close coordination of language with US counterparts on FX policy, which can raise the perceived cost of holding large short-yen positions during volatility.

The plumbing that links yen funding to BTCThis is a leverage-to-liquidity chain reaction.

The transmission from yen funding to bitcoin usually runs through portfolios and market structure, rather than through a simple yen-Bitcoin carry trade.

1) Multi-asset funds and macro pods
Many large books run equities, rates, FX, and credit as a single risk system, and some hold BTC exposure through futures, options, or listed products. When FX volatility rises and funding conditions tighten, the risk system often requires gross exposure reduction. Bitcoin frequently sits in the same high beta bucket as growth equities and tighter-spread credit.

2) Prime brokerage and synthetic funding
A large share of leverage runs through instruments that synthesize funding across currencies. FX swaps and forwards can embed yen funding in strategies that never present themselves as carry trades in a simple way. Prime brokers and margin systems then translate higher volatility into higher required collateral. When collateral needs rise, exposure cuts happen quickly.

3) Offshore non-bank channels
BIS research provides scale anchors that help quantify how large the yen-linked channel has become outside Japan. BIS Global Liquidity Indicators show that yen-denominated loans to non-banks resident outside Japan rose to about ¥40 trillion by March 2024, roughly $250 billion using BIS’ conversion at the time. The same BIS bulletin notes that cross-border yen bank claims on certain offshore non-bank segments exceeded ¥80 trillion before the August 2024 episode.

Those numbers matter because they frame capacity. A large yen-funded channel can influence global risk conditions even when a specific asset is not directly financed in yen. When that channel tightens, the tightening can reach Bitcoin through cross-asset deleveraging and liquidity conditions.

BIS also noted that cryptoassets sold off sharply during that August 2024 turbulence, with Bitcoin and Ethereum posting losses of up to 20% during the episode. The value of that reference in February 2026 sits in the mechanism: a volatility shock can force margin-driven selling across assets, and crypto can be part of that selling even when crypto-specific news stays quiet.

What a carry-driven deleveraging wave looks like inside cryptoWhen carry exposure unwinds through a margin channel, crypto markets often show a familiar set of internal moves. Treat them as recurring symptoms that tend to cluster when leverage exits quickly.

Perpetual funding and basis reprice quickly.
Funding rates can swing as leveraged longs cut exposure and hedges become more expensive. Basis compresses when leverage exits, and cash-and-carry positioning gets reduced.

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Open interest compresses as positions close.
A rapid open interest decline often appears during forced exposure reduction. This can happen across exchanges at the same time because the underlying driver sits in risk limits, rather than in an exchange-specific event.

Spreads widen and depth thins.
Liquidity providers often reduce quoted size during volatility spikes. Depth at the top of the book can thin significantly, and execution quality deteriorates. In that environment, smaller market orders can produce larger price movements.

Cross-asset correlation tightens.
Bitcoin can trade closely with equity index futures during the highest-stress window. This behavior often follows a broad risk reduction wave where the marginal seller is cutting exposures across multiple lines.

ETF flow sensitivity increases.
When order books thin out, steady ETF inflows can absorb supply more effectively. When flows turn negative, the market loses a stabilizing buyer during a period when liquidity is already constrained.

The BIS framing is useful because it ties these symptoms back to the same root driver: volatility spikes tighten margins and force synchronized deleveraging across assets.

The 5-signal checklist for a yen-driven deleveraging windowThis checklist helps recognize the regime early and treat Bitcoin price action as a margin event when multiple signals align.

1) USD/JPY speed plus official language
Watch for fast multi-figure moves over one to two sessions, paired with language about vigilance and urgency. Tripwire: a 2 to 3% USD/JPY move in 24 to 48 hours, plus official “vigilance” or “urgency” language. The Feb. 12 Reuters report provides a concrete example of both: a move from near 160 to around 153 and a public emphasis on high urgency.

2) Cross-asset volatility shock
Track equity volatility and short-dated implied volatility behavior. A jump in volatility often travels with higher margins and tighter risk limits.

3) Credit and funding stress proxy
Watch for widening credit spreads, repo frictions, or collateral signals. These often travel with broad deleveraging.

4) Crypto internals: funding, basis, open interest, spreads
Track simultaneous moves: funding reprices, basis compresses, open interest declines, and spreads widen. This combination often accompanies rapid leverage reduction.

5) ETF flow trend as cushion strength
Track the 7-day average of net flows for the major US spot Bitcoin ETFs. A steady inflow pattern can help absorb supply when liquidity thins. A run of outflows can remove that support during a deleveraging window.

A practical way to apply this framework is to treat it as a hierarchy. Start with FX speed and official language, because that is where yen carry stress often shows first. Then check whether cross-asset volatility reprices at the same time. Add a credit or funding proxy to confirm that the stress is systemic rather than localized. Then use crypto internals to identify whether leverage is leaving. When all four layers align, the microstructure outcome tends to be similar: thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and more price movement per unit of flow.

TakeawayA fast USD/JPY move plus a cross-asset volatility jump often creates a margin regime that reaches Bitcoin through deleveraging and liquidity conditions. The scale of the yen-linked channel is large enough to move markets that look far removed from the currency. Bitcoin trades inside that global funding system.

Start with USD/JPY speed plus official language.
Confirm with cross-asset volatility and margin stress.
Validate with crypto internals: funding, open interest, and depth.

That sequence captures the mechanism that links yen carry conditions to BTC price action.

Posted in

Journalist

Posted: February 22, 2026

Chainlink bulls have defended the $8 support level valiantly over the past two weeks. The Chainlink reserve climbed to 2 million tokens, valued at around $17 million.

The positive Spot ETF inflows to LINK also showed steady demand for the altcoin.

AMBCrypto had reported that the token was trading within a long-term symmetrical triangle pattern. The weekly RSI dropped to 32 for the first time in LINK’s history.

A lower-timeframe bullish flag pattern developed in recent weeks, contrasting with the higher-timeframe momentum. This has increased the expectations of a short-term bullish breakout.

Rising accumulation trends reflect long-term holder conviction The Holder Accumulation Ratio metric on Glassnode measures the portion of active holders who are buying or accumulating. It is calculated as the ratio of holders who increased their positions to all holders who saw a change in their balance.

Toward the end of January, the metric fell to a low of 66.06%. This month, the ratio has soared to 74.8%. The ratio has been below the 67%-69% area for most of the past two years.

The rising accumulation trends coincided with sideways price movement and some selling pressure from short-term holders.

Santiment data captured how the 3-month LINK holder cohort was facing sizeable losses. The 90-day MVRV ratio of 24.29% meant that the average LINK buyer in the past three months was facing a 24% loss.

At the same time, the 90-day Mean Coin Age has plunged considerably.

Together, it showed that the 3-month-old Chainlink [LINK] holder cohort, who fell into the short-term holder category, were aggressively selling Chainlink tokens over the past three weeks.

Meanwhile, the 180-day Dormant Circulation remained quiet.

The 180-day Mean Coin Age continued its steady uptrend as well. These metrics suggested that the longer-term holders remained sidelined or were adding to their holdings.

There was no spike in this age group’s dormant circulation, which would have indicated a wave of selling pressure.

Overall, it remained possible that Chainlink bulls can recover from the setbacks in recent months.

However, there was a more pessimistic view that investors should consider, too.

The final capitulation from the long-term holders has not yet taken place. Therefore, there is no rush to buy- it is also possible that LINK prices have to undergo one more bearish impulse wave.

Final Summary The Chainlink accumulation ratio rose in recent weeks alongside evidence that longer-term holders refused to sell their holdings. This could be a sign that the final LINK holder capitulation has not taken place yet, a sobering thought for underwater investors.

Nevertheless, improving sentiment toward the US Senate passing crypto-friendly legislation continued to support a cautiously bullish medium-term outlook.

Below, I consider the key drivers behind recent price trends, the short-term outlook, the medium-term trajectory, and the key technical levels traders should watch.

US BTC-Spot ETF Market Extends Outflow Streak The US BTC-spot ETF market saw net outflows of $315.9 million in the reporting week ending February 20. Significantly, the spot ETF market extended its outflow streak to five weeks, weighing on the supply-demand balance and buying interest in BTC.

According to Farside Investors, key flows for the reporting week ending February 20 included:

iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw net outflows of $303.5 million. Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net outflows of $19.6 million. In total, six ETF issuers reported weekly net outflows, compared to one ETF with weekly net inflows. The five-week outflow streak has weighed heavily on BTC demand. BTC has tumbled 22.44% year-to-date as BTC-spot ETFs have seen YTD outflows of $2.6 billion. Significantly, the spot ETF flow trends continue to support a bearish short-term outlook.

Fading bets on a June Fed rate cut have affected BTC-spot ETF market flow trends. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a June Fed rate cut dropped from 68.6% on February 13 to 53.5% on February 20, following the release of US economic data.

Crucially, elevated borrowing rates would affect liquidity, potentially leading traders to unwind leveraged positions in BTC and delay speculative trades.

Bitcoin and the US Economic Calendar: Labor Market Data and the Fed in Focus Looking at the week ahead, US labor market and consumer confidence data will influence sentiment following last week’s market reaction to key US data.

On Tuesday, February 24, US consumer confidence figures will provide insights into the domestic demand outlook. Economists expect the CB Consumer Confidence Index to rise from 84.5 in January to 86.0 in February. A sharper upswing would signal a pickup in consumer spending, given the tighter labor market. Increased spending would fuel demand-driven inflation, supporting a more hawkish Fed rate path.

On Thursday, February 26, US initial jobless claims will also influence sentiment after last week’s larger-than-expected fall to 206k. Economists forecast initial jobless claims will rise from 206k (week ending February 14) to 211k (week ending February 21). A higher jobless claims reading, nearer 250k, would revive Fed rate cut bets and boost demand for BTC.

Beyond the data, traders should closely monitor FOMC members’ reactions to the recent US economic reports. Their views on inflation, the labor market, and the timing of rate cuts will be crucial for BTC’s near-term price trajectory.

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Signals Bearish Sentiment Despite rebounding from February’s low of $60,000, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index languishes within the Extreme Fear zone. The Fear & Greed Index rose from 8 to 9 on Sunday, February 22, reflecting extreme bearish sentiment. Typically, these conditions suggest a price recovery, reinforcing the bullish medium-term outlook.

BTC Fear & Greed Index – 220226 Downside Risks to Medium-Term Outlook: Central Banks, US Data, and ETF Flows While positive fundamentals support a constructive medium-term bias, downside risks include:

The BoJ indicates a higher neutral interest rate (potentially 1.5%-2%), signaling multiple rate hikes. BoJ rate hikes and Fed rate cuts would narrow US-Japan rate differentials in favor of the yen. A markedly narrower rate differential could trigger a yen carry trade unwind as seen in mid-2024. US economic indicators dampen Fed rate cut bets. Lawmakers delay crypto-friendly legislation. US-Iran tensions intensify. BTC-spot ETFs report extended periods of outflows. These scenarios would likely push BTC toward $60,000, exposing the August 2024 low of $49,351 (the yen carry trade unwind low).

In summary, the short-term outlook remains bearish as fundamentals align with technicals. However, the medium- to longer-term outlook is cautiously bullish, hinged on favorable fundamentals developing. These fundamentals include the progress of the Market Structure Bill, easing geopolitical tensions, and expectations of Fed rate cuts.

Technical Analysis This week’s losses leave BTC trading well below its 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling a bearish bias. However, oversold conditions and evolving fundamentals suggest a rebound from the current levels, countering the negative technicals.

A breakout above $70,000 would bring the 50-day EMA into play. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA would indicate a near-term bullish trend reversal, paving the way toward the 200-day EMA. A sustained move above the 200-day EMA would affirm a bullish trend reversal, opening the door to testing the $100,000 psychological level.

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Bitcoin supply structure is undergoing a notable transformation as the Network Distribution Factor (NDF) declines rapidly. While price action often dominates headlines, shifts in distribution metrics can reveal structural changes. A falling NDF suggests that the balance of BTC holdings across different wallet cohorts is evolving, and potentially signaling a redistribution of market participants.

What The Network Distribution Factor Actually Measures An advanced on-chain data analytics firm, Alphractal, noted on X that the NDF of Bitcoin is declining sharply, and revealing an important structural shift in how the asset supply is distributed across the market. The NDF measures the proportion of the total BTC supply held by larger holders controlling at least 0.01% of the entire circulating supply.

When the metric declines, it indicates that the BTC supply concentration among large holders is decreasing. In practical terms, this shift represents a reduced relative dominance of large holders over the total supply and broader redistribution of BTC among smaller participants and new market entrants.

A declining extreme concentration is often seen during early accumulation phases, and a natural redistribution process follows the periods of strong accumulation by large entities. Historically, extended declines in the NDF tend to occur during phases when the market is mature, and the asset becomes more widely distributed. 

BTC market is undergoing a key shift | Source: Chart from Alphractal on X This often occurs after major bull cycles, when large players accumulate supply and are gradually absorbed by the broader market. Rather than signaling weakness, this dynamic can strengthen BTC economic decentralization and reduce structural risk tied to excessive concentration.

At the same time, it reflects a transition phase where supply is being redistributed globally, reinforcing BTC’s evolution from a relatively concentrated asset into a widely distributed global financial network. However, this does not signal structural weakness, but rather signals maturation and the expansion of BTC’s ownership base.

Why Bitcoin Represents A True Financial Revolution The clearest reasons Bitcoin remains the most compelling asset of our generation are its ownership structure and fixed supply. According to Crypto Patel, roughly 63% of the total circulating supply is held by everyday individual participants, not Wall Street, not the government, or even the institutions.

At the core of this thesis, there are only 21 million BTC in existence, and the number is fixed permanently; no central bank can inflate it, no politician can alter the code, and no corporation can dilute holders.

In a world characterized by aggressive money printing and currency debasement, BTC stands alone as mathematically enforced scarcity, and the majority of that asset belongs to ordinary individuals. Crypto Patel frames BTC’s decentralized ownership and fixed supply not just as a technology, but as a structural revolution.

BTC trading at $68,205 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

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Godspower Owie is my name, and I work for the news platforms NewsBTC and Bitcoinist. I sometimes like to think of myself as an explorer since I enjoy exploring new places, learning new things, especially valuable ones, and meeting new people who have an impact on my life, no matter how small. I value my family, friends, career, and time. Really, those are most likely the most significant aspects of every person's existence. Not illusions, but dreams are what I pursue.

A new Bloomberg analysis argues bitcoin is facing a “$1 trillion identity crisis,” as falling prices, exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows, and rising competition from gold, stablecoins, and prediction markets are testing the asset's long-standing narratives, at least according to the authors.

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Bitcoin is once again testing an important resistance zone, and traders are watching closely to see what happens next.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin recently faced rejection near the $68,300 to $69,800 resistance area. This is not the first time price has struggled in this zone. Sellers have stepped in here before, and we are now seeing another pause in momentum.

So what does this mean for Bitcoin’s short-term outlook?

Bullish Scenario Still AliveThe broader view remains slightly bullish.

Bitcoin appears to have formed a potential “wave two” bottom around February 19. If that structure holds, the market could now be building a third wave to the upside. A third wave is typically the strongest move in a trend, but it still needs confirmation through a clear breakout.

Right now, price action looks messy on lower time frames. There is no strong breakout yet, which means the move higher is not fully confirmed.

A Pullback Could Come FirstEven in the bullish setup, a short-term pullback would not be unusual.

A typical pattern would involve a small correction before continuation higher. If Bitcoin pulls back, the key support zone to watch sits between $66,194 and $66,956. As long as price stays above this range, the bullish structure remains intact.

If this support holds, buyers could step back in and push Bitcoin toward new local highs.

What If Support Breaks?If Bitcoin falls below that support area, the outlook becomes more cautious.

In that case, the next major support zone would be between $64,535 and $62,592. A drop into that area would suggest a deeper correction before any strong rally resumes.

Breakout Level to WatchFor bulls, the most important level is still the $68,300 to $69,867 resistance zone. A strong daily close above this range would signal momentum shifting firmly upward and increase the chances of a move toward higher highs.

Final OutlookBitcoin is at a decision point. A small dip would not damage the overall bullish setup, but holding above key support is critical.

If support stays strong and resistance eventually breaks, Bitcoin could begin its next leg higher. If not, a deeper correction may come first before the next major rally.

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High risk could lead to high reward, but there's no guarantee.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD +0.61%) stock had an incredible run-up until October 2025. Over the three years prior to then, it gained about 1,300%. However, it's been falling since then, down almost 50% from the October high.

The trading platform is still reporting double-digit growth, but there could be more volatility ahead. Here's what to watch for.

Image source: Getty Images.

The prototype fintech company Robinhood is known for its trading platform that attracts retail investors. Although equities trading is its main business, it has expanded into more speculative functions like options and cryptocurrency trading, in addition to many traditional financial services.

At this point, it has high exposure to cryptocurrency movements, which is why the stock has been falling. Bitcoin is down 30% over the past three months, leading the decline. Cryptocurrency trading accounts for a large portion of transaction revenue, and since it declined in the fourth quarter, total revenue growth decelerated from 100% in the third quarter to only 27% in the fourth quarter.

Here's what happened. Transaction revenue increased 15% year over year in the fourth quarter. That included a 41% increase in options revenue, a 54% increase in equities revenue, a 300% increase in other transaction revenue, and a 38% decline in cryptocurrency revenue. In the prior year, cryptocurrency revenue gained 700% and accounted for more than half of transaction revenue, which is why the impact was felt so strongly.

Robinhood doesn't usually provide this "other" revenue figure, but it's being fueled today by the fairly new category of prediction markets. That's why the increase was so high, since last year, the other category didn't have this driver, and instead comprised other new products.

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Risk and reward The obvious thing to look for in Robinhood's trajectory is cryptocurrency trends. That's the main impacting feature in the near term. From a broader perspective, in order to envision Robinhood becoming a long-term viable company with growth potential, I'm watching how well it diversifies into more stable financial services. It already has a credit card and offers some banking services through a partner, and CEO Vlad Tenev says that it's building a "financial superapp."

If it's able to achieve that, it will become a much more stable and investable company.

The Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) has enjoyed a resurgence in 2026. The rest of the year looks good, but watch out for this one thing.

Over the past few years, you could simply invest in the S&P 500 and enjoy strong double-digit annual returns. Tilt more heavily toward megacap growth, and you likely did better. There wasn't a big need to figure out what style, factor, or strategy would lead to outperformance. You could invest in the broad U.S. stock market and do well.

But this year has marked a big change. Tech is no longer leading. Most major sectors are beating the S&P 500 year to date. Many styles and strategies that have gone ignored for years are suddenly looking attractive again.

That goes for dividend stocks as well. The Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG +0.20%) is up nearly 4% year to date compared to a flat return for the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. Its tilt toward quality and value has been a tailwind as the market continues rotating away from expensive tech stocks.

Let's break down how this ETF looks for the rest of 2026.

Image source: Getty Images.

Why the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF works in 2026 This ETF invests in more than 300 U.S. stocks that have a 10-year-plus track record of annual dividend growth. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are excluded, as are the top 25% highest yields from the eligible universe. That creates a portfolio of large, durable, cash-rich companies that have mature business models and are able to continue rewarding shareholders over time.

As we've seen over the past several years, there was little desire for the S&P 500's 1% to 2% yield when large-cap tech and growth stocks were returning 15% or more per year. That changed in 2026. Investors have grown more cautious about the U.S. economic outlook and the Federal Reserve's willingness to cut interest rates later this year. Valuations are already high, and without the potential catalysts to keep these stocks pushing higher, investors have transitioned over to more defensive, value-oriented areas of the market.

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That's worked well for dividend ETFs, whose portfolios are usually comprised mostly of non-tech stocks. Will this rotation be sustained through the remainder of this year? Given that so many sectors and styles are outperforming the S&P 500 right now, along with Treasuries, which have only recently gotten going, the backdrop is certainly favorable. Anytime the market expects the economy and jobs market to slow and is less willing to target more expensive stocks, that's a good thing for dividend stocks.

What to watch out for I'm not a fan of the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF's market cap-weighting strategy. It makes the largest qualifying stocks the biggest holdings in the fund regardless of dividend quality or history. The fund's current top three holdings are Broadcom, Microsoft, and Apple -- all stocks with less than a 1% yield.

That strategy results in this ETF having a much larger tech allocation (currently 26% of the portfolio) than most other dividend ETFs. That elevated exposure to a sector that's now very much out of favor makes the fund vulnerable to a deeper pullback.

Overall, the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF is filled with companies built to withstand more challenging environments. Its 1.6% yield won't necessarily get income investors excited, but it could beat the S&P 500 this year on total returns.

David Dierking has positions in Apple and Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple, Microsoft, Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF, and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Roblox: Regulatory Fears Will Fade As Bookings Grow

VictoryShares Free Cash Flow ETF earns a reiterated buy rating for its attractive valuation, strong track record, and robust technical setup. VFLO trades at a low 13.5x P/E with a 9.7% EPS growth rate, yielding a compelling PEG ratio below 1.5x. The ETF's portfolio features a barbell approach: overweight Energy, underweight IT versus S&P 500, and significant Health Care exposure.

FMC has reported back to back bad earnings quarters, and seen its stock price cut in half. FMC has a plan for a turnaround -- which includes possibly selling itself.

Universal Health Realty Income Trust: Good For Income Through Cycles

As AI uncertainty weighs on stocks, consider loading up on these dividend-growth blue chips instead.

Uncertainty about corporate spending on generative artificial intelligence (AI) continues to weigh on stocks. As markets remain rocky, long-term investors may want to take advantage of the turbulence by buying blue chip dividend stocks on weakness.

Even with just a small amount of starting capital, you can begin building a portfolio that compounds for decades to come.

Dividend stocks, particularly dividend-growth stocks, can serve as a strong foundation for a long-term portfolio. The steady gains from their respective payouts help to provide a solid baseline for returns.

Right now, three such names that stand out as potential buys are Dover Corp. (DOV +0.34%), NextEra Energy (NEE +0.59%), and Roper Technologies (ROP +1.14%).

Image source: Getty Images.

Dover's on a roll, thanks to its AI data center boom Dover is an industrial conglomerate. Think of it as similar to Danaher or Illinois Tool Works. However, two key factors make Dover stand out. First, it's one of the Dividend Kings, or stocks with at least 50 years of consecutive dividend growth.

Dover Corporation earned this status decades back, as it's nearing its 72nd consecutive annual dividend increase. Yes, as a dividend play, Dover is far from a high-yielder. Currently, shares have a forward yield of just 0.9%. Dividend growth, while steady, has been slow, averaging 1% annually over the past five years.

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Still, this dividend stock could still generate strong returns. Lately, Dover's overall growth has benefited from strong demand for the company's liquid cooling systems, driven by the rise of AI data centers worldwide. With profits surging, further dividend growth and price gains could continue to arrive at a rapid pace.

NextEra Energy is another beneficiary of increased AI spending NextEra Energy, a Florida-based utility company, is yet another "old economy" name with an AI catalyst in its corner. In light of booming energy demand from AI hyperscalers, NextEra has stated that the U.S. is now in "a golden age of power demand."

If NextEra's thesis proves correct, it will bode very well for this longtime dividend growth stock. NextEra Energy has raised its dividend annually for the past 31 years.

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Better yet, dividend growth has averaged 10.1% annually over the past five years. At current prices, the stock has a forward yield of 2.44%. While pricier than peers at 23.5 times forward earnings, this valuation is sustainable if growth trends persist. From there, shares could keep climbing in line with earnings growth.

The recent sell-off creates a unique opportunity to buy Roper Technologies Roper Technologies sells industry-specific enterprise software products, such as DAT Freight and Analytics for trucking and Deltek Costpoint for federal contractors. While previously a strong performer, shares have slumped lately, falling 37% over the past six months. In recent quarters, sales have slowed down.

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AI disruption fears have also placed pressure on the stock. Nevertheless, better times may be just around the corner. Moving forward, Roper's 1.1% dividend yield stands to have a greater impact on total returns. Roper has raised its dividend for 32 years in a row. Dividend growth has averaged 10% annually over the past five years.

More importantly, various catalysts could help drive a rebound, including possible new acquisitions, aggressive share repurchase plans, or even just the potential for Roper to beat walked-back growth expectations.

The Trade Desk has seen its stock collapse from $139 to $25, creating a deep value opportunity. Despite decelerating to 18% annual growth, TTD outpaces the US digital ad sector and improves margins via its AI platform Kokai. TTD trades at a forward PEG of 0.48x, with a pristine balance sheet and 16.8% ROE, signaling strong undervaluation and business efficiency.

Gladstone Investment: Efficient Portfolio Strategy Leads To NAV Growth

Third Coast Bancshares is rated Buy, driven by strong operational metrics, robust loan growth, and strategic expansion in Texas' fastest-growing markets. TCBX's merger with Keystone Bancshares enhances Austin market presence, diversifies the loan portfolio, and is expected to deliver high single-digit EPS accretion by next year. Record 2025 results included $66.3M net income, 17.7% tangible book value growth, and a net interest margin above 4%, with continued efficiency improvements.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of BKNG either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Notably, the US XRP-spot ETF market has outperformed the US BTC-spot ETF market since November. Crypto-friendly legislation and increased XRP utility, combined with spot ETF inflows, suggest a future decoupling from Bitcoin (BTC).

For context, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw $303.5 million in net outflows in the reporting week ending February 20. Since US XRP-spot ETFs began trading in November, the US BTC-spot ETF market has seen $5.33 billion in net outflows, weighing on BTC and the broader crypto market. A decoupling would be a significant outcome for XRP holders seeking the benefits of XRP utility on Main Street.

XRP has dropped 13.27% in February, tracking BTC’s 13.37% loss, underscoring Bitcoin’s heavy influence on broader market sentiment.

US Banks and the Market Structure Bill in the Spotlight This week, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse lifted sentiment, giving a 90% chance that the US Senate will pass the CLARITY Act before the end of spring. Executive Director of the President’s Council of Advisors for Digital Assets, Patrick Witt, gave a similar prognosis, fueling hopes of an agreement on stablecoin yields next week.

White House economics reporter Eleanor Mueller commented on last week’s session on stablecoin yields, stating:

“In today’s meeting between banks and crypto, the White House presented a proposal that would allow exchanges to pay customers for their stablecoins as long as they base it on activities or transactions (not balances), I’m told. Expectation is banks start meeting tomorrow into the weekend to decide whether to sign off.”

An agreement on how to handle stablecoin yields may not directly impact XRP. However, analysts expect crypto-friendly legislation to strengthen Ripple’s position in the TradFi space, key to XRP utility. XRP remains highly sensitive to legislative developments.

XRP rallied from a December 31 low of $1.8103 to a January 6 high of $2.4151 on the US Senate Banking Committee’s announcement of its markup vote on draft text for the Market Structure Bill. However, XRP tumbled to a February low of $1.1227 in response to the Banking Committee’s postponement of its markup vote. The token has reclaimed $1.43 on the recent legislative developments and the improved optimism.

XRPUSD – Daily Chart – 220226 – Market Structure Bill Effect XRP Price Forecast: Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Targets XRP has tumbled 22.63% year-to-date, supporting a cautiously bearish short-term outlook (1-4 weeks), with a target price of $1.0.

However, XRP-spot ETF flow trends, improving optimism over the US Senate passing the Market Structure Bill, and increased XRP utility support the bullish medium- to long-term price projections:

Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $2.5. Longer-term (8-12 weeks): $3.0. Key Downside Risks to the Bullish Medium-Term Outlook Several scenarios could derail the constructive medium-term bias. These include:

A full-blown US-Iran conflict. US economic indicators dampen expectations of an H1 2026 Fed rate cut. Delays and/or partisan opposition to the Market Structure Bill. Extended periods of XRP-spot ETF net outflows. Additionally, traders should consider Bank of Japan chatter and USD/JPY, given the impact of the mid-2024 yen carry trade unwind on XRP.

A hawkish Bank of Japan, with a higher neutral interest rate (potentially 1.5%-2.5%), would indicate multiple BoJ rate hikes. Multiple hikes would narrow US-Japan rate differentials in favor of the yen. Narrowing rate differentials could trigger a yen carry trade unwind, drying up market liquidity. For context, the BoJ previously announced a wider neutral rate band of 1%-2.5% but stated it would announce a narrower range at a later date.

These factors would weigh on XRP, send the token toward $1.0, and reinforce the cautiously bearish short-term outlook.

Technical Analysis: Levels to Watch XRP rose 0.08% on February 21, following the previous day’s 1.57% gain, closing at $1.4301. The token outperformed the broader crypto market cap, which ended the session flat.

Despite reclaiming $1.43, XRP remained below its 50-day and 200-day EMAs. The EMA positions signaled a bearish bias. However, the 50-day EMA flattened further, suggesting easing near-term selling pressure. Additionally, several positive fundamentals continue to counter bearish technicals, supporting the bullish medium-term outlook. Despite these favorable fundamentals, short-term technicals remain bearish.

Key technical levels to watch include:

Support levels: $1.0, and then $0.7773. 50-day EMA resistance: $1.6684. 200-day EMA resistance: $2.1021. Resistance levels: $1.5, $2.0, $2.5, and $3.0. On the daily chart, a break above $1.50 would bring the 50-day EMA into play. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA would signal a near-term bullish trend reversal. A bullish trend reversal would open the door to testing the 200-day EMA.

A sustained breakout above the EMAs would affirm a bullish trend reversal and reinforce the medium- to longer-term price targets.

France has officially approved the sale of a majority stake in Exaion, a key data center subsidiary of state-owned energy giant Electricité de France (EDF), to U.S.-based bitcoin miner MARA Holdings Inc. The $168 million deal, first announced in August 2025, concludes after months of scrutiny tied to national security and digital sovereignty concerns.

MARA Holdings, headquartered in Florida and recognized as one of the largest publicly traded bitcoin mining companies, will acquire a 64% stake in Exaion. The subsidiary operates high-performance computing (HPC) infrastructure that supports digital workloads, including blockchain and cloud-based services. The transaction initially raised alarms in Paris over potential foreign control of strategic digital infrastructure, particularly assets linked to France’s energy sector.

To address these concerns, French authorities imposed strict conditions before granting approval. NJJ Capital, the investment firm controlled by telecom billionaire Xavier Niel, will acquire a 10% stake in Mara France, the local entity managing the acquisition. This requirement ensures French participation in the ownership structure. EDF will retain a minority stake in Exaion and remain one of its clients, maintaining a degree of operational continuity.

Finance Minister Roland Lescure described the agreement as a balanced approach that reinforces France’s openness to foreign investment while safeguarding national interests. He emphasized that the government remains committed to protecting strategic assets and technological sovereignty. Officials also confirmed that no sensitive EDF data will remain within Exaion following the completion of the sale.

Under the new structure, Exaion’s board of directors will include representatives from MARA Holdings, EDF, and NJJ Capital. The acquisition marks a significant expansion for MARA in Europe’s digital infrastructure and bitcoin mining landscape, while highlighting France’s evolving regulatory stance on foreign investment in critical technology sectors.

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Ethereum’s getting a major overhaul. Vitalik Buterin and his development team want to roll out significant changes this year, and they’re not backing down from the controversy that’s brewing around it.

The upgrade targets censorship resistance, something Buterin called critical during a recent developer conference. “Ethereum is going hard on this,” he said, making it clear the team won’t compromise on the network’s core values. The move comes as governments worldwide ramp up crypto oversight, with some pushing for strict controls that could undermine blockchain independence. Developers see the upgrade as essential protection against future regulatory interference. They’re working on changes to the consensus mechanism and protocol adjustments that would make it nearly impossible for any single entity to control network operations.

Not everyone’s happy about it.

Mining groups pushed back hard on February 20, releasing a joint statement that questioned the upgrade’s impact on their operations. They want a slower rollout, arguing that rapid changes could hurt profitability and destabilize existing infrastructure. Some miners worry the consensus mechanism shifts will basically kill their business model. The tension between innovation and protecting current stakeholders has created pretty messy debates across Ethereum forums and social media.

Tim Beiko, a lead developer, tried to calm fears during a virtual town hall on February 18. Hundreds of Ethereum users and developers joined the session, where Beiko said the team’s running extensive simulations to catch potential problems before they happen. He stressed that community input matters, and developers are listening to feedback from various stakeholders. But he also made it clear the upgrade’s happening regardless of some opposition.

The timeline’s aggressive. Developers want everything implemented by year-end, though the Ethereum Foundation hasn’t locked in specific dates yet. Testing processes are already underway, involving both core team members and independent developers across the crypto space.

And there’s real urgency behind the push.

Global regulatory pressure keeps mounting, with several governments proposing blockchain controls that could compromise network decentralization. The European Union’s considering new crypto regulations, while China continues its crackdown on mining operations. U.S. lawmakers are also eyeing stricter oversight measures. Ethereum developers see their upgrade as a preemptive strike against potential censorship attempts. Related coverage: Tech Startups Hit Major Cross-Border Roadblocks.

The technical details remain murky, though. The Ethereum Foundation won’t reveal specific implementation plans, saying they need more testing and community consensus first. Sources close to the development team suggest the changes will be more radical than initially expected, potentially affecting how transactions get processed and validated across the network. Some insiders think the upgrade could reshape Ethereum’s entire architecture, though official confirmation hasn’t come yet.

Community reactions stay mixed. Crypto enthusiasts generally support stronger censorship resistance, but they’re worried about execution risks. DeFi protocols built on Ethereum could face disruptions during the transition period. Several major projects are already preparing contingency plans in case the upgrade causes unexpected problems.

The Ethereum Foundation plans another community meeting in March to share more details and gather additional feedback. Buterin and his team know the stakes are high – this upgrade could define Ethereum’s future for years to come. They’re betting that short-term pain will lead to long-term gains in network resilience and independence.

Mining operations across the globe are watching closely. Some smaller miners are already considering switching to other cryptocurrencies if Ethereum’s changes make their equipment obsolete. Larger mining pools seem more prepared to adapt, though they’re still pushing for gradual implementation rather than sudden shifts.

The crypto world’s basically holding its breath. Ethereum’s success or failure with the upgrade will likely influence how other blockchain networks approach similar challenges. Bitcoin maximalists are watching to see if Ethereum’s complexity will create vulnerabilities, while competitors hope any stumbles will drive users to their platforms. See also: Ethereum Hits Critical Price Point as.

Market reactions have been relatively calm so far, with Ethereum’s price staying stable despite the uncertainty. Traders seem confident the development team can pull off the upgrade without major disasters, though volatility could spike once implementation begins.

Buterin remains committed to the original vision. He’s made it clear that Ethereum won’t compromise its decentralized principles, even if that means alienating some current stakeholders. The upgrade represents his team’s biggest bet yet on blockchain independence versus regulatory compliance.

The coming months will determine whether Ethereum can successfully balance innovation with stability while keeping its diverse community together.

Major cryptocurrency exchanges including Coinbase and Binance are quietly preparing infrastructure updates to handle Ethereum’s transition. Internal memos from these platforms suggest they’re allocating additional engineering resources and conducting stress tests on their systems. Meanwhile, institutional investors holding large Ethereum positions have started hedging strategies, with some moving portions of their holdings to stablecoins as a precautionary measure.

The upgrade’s ripple effects extend beyond Ethereum itself. Layer-2 solutions like Polygon and Arbitrum are scrambling to ensure compatibility with the new consensus mechanism. Several DeFi protocols have already announced temporary feature limitations during the transition window, while NFT marketplaces are warning users about potential delays in transaction processing.

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Bitcoin crashed hard. The drop sent shockwaves through derivatives markets where overleveraged traders got completely wiped out in what analysts are calling a massive deleveraging event.

Trader CryptoOnchain spotted the carnage first on Binance, where the Estimated Leverage Ratio plummeted from dangerous highs. The ELR tracks how much leverage sits in the market by comparing open interest against exchange reserves. When it’s high, even small price moves can trigger huge liquidation cascades. Back in January, NewsBTC reported the ELR hit 0.1980 – pretty much a warning sign that things were getting too frothy. After Bitcoin’s recent tumble, that number dropped to around 0.1414.

That’s a 28% decline.

The flush-out was brutal but necessary, according to market watchers. CryptoOnchain said the deleveraging purged excess risk from the system, eliminating what he called the “derivatives bubble” that had been building for weeks. Binance saw the biggest impact since it’s the world’s largest crypto exchange, handling massive derivative volumes daily.

Bitcoin currently trades near $67,950, up 2% in the past 24 hours but still down over 1% for the week. The price action remains choppy as traders figure out the new landscape.

So what happens next?

The reduced leverage means fewer liquidations ahead, but Bitcoin needs real buying pressure from spot markets to sustain any rally. Derivatives alone won’t cut it anymore. The market basically hit reset, and now everyone’s waiting to see who steps up to buy.

CoinGecko data shows trading volumes remain elevated as investors try to position for whatever comes next. But there’s no clear catalyst on the horizon. Michael Saylor from MicroStrategy jumped on a webcast February 22nd, saying the cleanup could create a “healthier foundation” for Bitcoin’s growth. He’s been pushing the organic demand angle for months now.

Glassnode analysts noted February 21st that open interest levels have stabilized at pre-volatility levels. That means derivative contracts got reset to more reasonable amounts. Traders are being way more careful now, which probably sets up more measured trading going forward. Binance reported derivative volumes dropped while spot trading ticked up slightly – a clear shift in how people want to play this market. Related coverage: Bitcoin ETFs Keep Billion Despite.

JP Morgan warned that volatility risks haven’t disappeared completely. Their latest report basically said stay alert because things can change fast in crypto. No kidding. The bank didn’t make any bold predictions but advised investors to watch for sudden shifts.

Changpeng Zhao from Binance addressed the situation on Twitter, calling the leverage reduction a “necessary adjustment” for a more robust trading environment. He didn’t provide specifics on any policy changes but reassured users about platform security and transparency. Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz told CNBC the reset was part of natural market cycles that weed out excessive risk-taking.

The CFTC dropped some interesting data February 22nd showing institutional players actually increased their Bitcoin futures positions during the chaos. Traditional financial entities might be positioning for future moves while retail traders were getting liquidated. The commission didn’t predict any trends but the timing seems pretty strategic.

Arcane Research thinks the deleveraging could attract more institutional money since the environment looks more stable now. Hedge funds and asset managers typically prefer predictable returns over wild speculation. The cleanup of overleveraged positions might actually help Bitcoin’s institutional adoption story.

But uncertainty remains high. Analysts are split on whether this marks a bottom or just a pause before more selling. The derivatives reset eliminated immediate liquidation risks, but Bitcoin still needs fresh capital to break higher. Spot market demand has been lukewarm lately, with most buying coming from existing holders rather than new participants.

Trading volumes on major exchanges show mixed signals. While Binance saw derivative activity cool off, other platforms reported steady spot volumes. The market structure definitely changed, but it’s unclear if that translates to sustained price stability or just a temporary lull before the next big move.

Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional markets also complicates the picture. Recent macro headwinds have kept crypto investors cautious, and the Federal Reserve’s policy stance continues weighing on risk assets. The deleveraging happened against this broader backdrop of uncertainty across financial markets. For more details, see Ripple Teams Up with Deutsche Bank.

The crypto fear and greed index recently hit extreme fear levels, which historically marks good buying opportunities. But this time feels different given how much leverage got flushed out. Previous bottoms often coincided with high leverage readings, not the current deleveraged state.

Whale activity data from several on-chain analytics firms shows large holders have been relatively quiet during the recent volatility. Major Bitcoin addresses haven’t shown significant accumulation or distribution patterns, suggesting institutional players are waiting for clearer signals before making big moves.

The February selloff caught many traders off guard since Bitcoin had been consolidating in a relatively tight range. The sudden break lower triggered stop-losses and margin calls across multiple exchanges simultaneously. Binance handled the volume surge without major technical issues, but smaller platforms reported some congestion during peak liquidation periods.

Market makers pulled back liquidity during the worst of the selling, creating wider bid-ask spreads that amplified price swings. Order book depth remains thinner than normal on most exchanges, which could mean more volatility ahead if large orders hit the market.

Galaxy Digital’s research team identified similar deleveraging patterns during previous Bitcoin corrections in 2021 and 2022. Meanwhile, Coinbase reported a 15% increase in new account registrations following the selloff, suggesting retail interest may be returning at lower price levels.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange saw Bitcoin futures open interest drop by $1.2 billion during the liquidation cascade. Deribit, the largest options exchange, recorded its highest single-day put option volumes since March 2020, indicating traders are hedging against further downside moves.

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Bitcoin just got ~15% harder to mine as hashrate falls—pushing miner revenue back into the $30 stress zoneBitcoin’s mining economy has tightened again, but its undertones could pave the way for a price recovery in the top crypto.

Over the past weeks, the network difficulty jumped, while the hashrate has shown signs of softening. At the same time, BTC miner margins have come under increased pressure as their revenue slipped back toward stress levels.

That combination has repeatedly materialized near major inflection points in previous market cycles.

While market analysts caution that this is not a magic buy signal for investors, the structural setup matters deeply because it has the potential to flip miner behavior from a desperate need to sell in order to survive into a scenario where they sell less of their accumulated holdings.

This subtle shift in behavior can effectively turn what is normally a steady, predictable source of incoming market supply into a significantly lighter headwind for Bitcoin's price.

A lagged difficulty jump landed after the reboundBitcoin’s difficulty adjusts every 2,016 blocks, roughly every two weeks, meaning the metric is always reacting to events that have already occurred on the network.

That timing explains the apparent contradiction in the latest move.

After a storm and curtailment period knocked machines offline, the network saw a difficulty cut of about 11.16% to about 125.86T on Feb. 7.

As miners came back online and block production normalized, the next adjustment moved in the opposite direction. On Feb. 19, difficulty rose about 14.73% to about 144.40T.

Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Adjustments in 2026 (Source: Cloverpool)The key point is simple. The network became harder to mine because earlier hashrate recovered, not because miner economics improved in real time.

That distinction is important for interpreting miner behavior. A rising difficulty print can look bullish on the surface because it signals network strength.

However, it can also be a margin squeeze if that increase arrives after a temporary recovery, when fees are weak, and BTC's price is not doing enough to offset higher mining costs.

A short-term recovery in hashrate is masking a broader declineShort-term measures of BTC network hashrate did indeed show notable improvement heading into the middle of February.

Data compiled from Luxor’s Hashrate Index demonstrated the 7-day SMA rising from ~1,003 EH/s to ~1,054 EH/s during the immediate storm recovery phase.

Bitcoin Network Hashrate in The Last 30 Days (Source: Hashrate Index)However, if one zooms out a bit to view the broader trend, the picture becomes noticeably less comfortable for the industry.

VanEck’s latest ChainCheck report describes a ~14% decline in hashrate over the past 90 days, a metric that is notable because sustained drawdowns of this magnitude are uncommon in the mature phases of the Bitcoin network.

Furthermore, day-to-day estimates consistently show meaningful volatility, a factor that complicates any single-point narrative pushed by market observers.

In light of this, the broader trend shows sustained pressure on hashrate over the last several months. A sharp increase in mining difficulty layered on top of that pressure can intensify margin stress at a particularly fragile point for the industry.

Hashprice is the real pressure point, and it has tightened againDifficulty and hashrate describe the network. Hashprice describes the business.

Miners pay expenses in fiat and fund those costs through BTC production and, in some cases, sales of the flagship digital asset. That is why hash price, typically quoted in dollars per petahash per day, is a more practical measure of stress.

Following the Feb. 19 difficulty increase, BTC hashprice dropped back below about $30/PH/day. That level is widely viewed as a stress zone, depending on machine efficiency, debt obligations, and power costs.

Bitcoin Hashprice in The Last 30 Days (Source: Hashrate Index)This is because some operators can withstand it, while several marginal operators often cannot.

Fees are not offering much relief. Hashrate Index data for the same period showed that transaction fees accounted for only about 0.48% of block rewards, indicating miners rely almost entirely on the subsidy and Bitcoin’s spot price.

The result is a familiar compression. Difficulty moved higher, fee support remained thin, and hash price weakened.

That is the combination that tends to shut off older rigs first and push higher-cost miners closer to forced selling.

In practice, this is how a network that looks technically strong can produce economic stress in the mining sector. The protocol is doing what it is supposed to do. The problem is timing.

Why miner stress can become a bullish setup over 90 daysThe bullish argument surrounding this phenomenon centers on structural shifts within the mining industry and their impact on supply dynamics.

The mechanism at play is structural, rooted in how sustained miner pressure reshapes issuance, balance sheets, and market liquidity.

Difficulty acts as a lagging squeeze on the market. When the network actively hikes difficulty after a brief operational rebound, it can easily overshoot what the miners can actually sustain at the current price and fee levels.

Hashrate then adjusts in real time as operators react to the new economic reality. Marginal rigs are forced to power down almost immediately when their daily profitability drops below the break-even point.

If that persistent weakness carries over into the next epoch, the protocol’s built-in relief valve kicks in, and the difficulty inherently falls.

A decline in difficulty mechanically improves the underlying economics for the surviving miners.

If the difficulty drops 10% to 12% and the price of Bitcoin remains entirely flat, the miner revenue per hash rises by a very similar mathematical magnitude.

While that adjustment does not guarantee a massive market rally, it can significantly reduce the overall probability of aggressive, forced selling from financially stressed miners.

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That mechanism forms the absolute heart of the capitulation-then-recovery thesis popularized by various miner-cycle frameworks (such as traditional Hash Ribbons-style analysis).

VanEck adds a compelling quantitative hook to this theory. In a published table tracking 12 notable hashrate contraction periods, the financial firm notes that extended hashrate declines have often been followed by remarkably strong 90-day forward returns for Bitcoin.

Excluding the very early history of the network, which lacked a defined price, and the current, still-unresolved episode, VanEck’s listed periods skewed highly positive, delivering a median forward return around the high-40% range and a heavily skewed mean.

Bitcoin Network Hashrate Decline and Price Returns in 90 Days (Source: VanEck)The ultimate takeaway for traders centers on the broader signal rather than the specific percentage gain.

Peak miner stress often signals late-stage supply pressure, and once the underlying protocol resets the difficulty or the asset price stabilizes, that supply pressure can fade quickly.

The next catalyst is the next difficulty print, but ETFs and macro still set the toneThe most immediate variable is already on the calendar. Forecasting tools are pointing to another double-digit decrease in difficulty, around 11%, in early March if current block timing holds.

If that estimate is directionally right, the effect is straightforward. Hashprice would improve without requiring BTC to rally first, which could ease sell-to-fund operations pressure across weaker miners.

That is why the current snapshot, difficulty up and hashrate slipping, can sometimes be read as peak tightness rather than a fresh warning. In prior periods, that has been the point just before network conditions loosened.

Still, miner signals do not operate in a vacuum, and the post-ETF market has made that even more obvious.

In early February, US spot BTC ETFs posted wide swings in daily flows, including a net inflow of about $562 million on Feb. 3 and a net outflow of around $545 million on Feb. 5.

Later in the month, daily moves remained choppy, with one day at about $166 million in outflows and another $88 million in inflows.

US Bitcoin ETFs Daily Flows (Source: SoSo Value)When ETF buyers are active, miner sell pressure matters less. When ETF demand weakens or turns negative, miner stress can add to downside momentum.

Meanwhile, macro positioning also remains a major filter for the market.

Reuters reported heavy put interest around the $50,000 to $60,000 strike levels during the same period, a sign of hedging demand and caution toward risk assets.

If risk sentiment worsens or liquidity tightens, Bitcoin can still trade like a high-beta macro asset, even if mining conditions improve.

Three paths for Bitcoin over the next 90 daysThe most constructive scenario is a mining reset with steadier demand. In that path, hashrate stays soft enough to support a meaningful difficulty cut, hashprice improves, and ETF flows stop swinging sharply negative.

Under those conditions, BTC has room for a 10% to 35% move higher over 90 days as miner-related supply pressure eases.

A middle path is what could be called a capitulation-lite outcome. Hashprice stays near breakeven, hashrate continues to bleed gradually, and difficulty adjusts lower in steps, but spot price remains choppy.

That kind of setup could leave BTC in a range of -5% to 20% over 90 days, with miner stress hurting near-term sentiment before the protocol reset starts to help.

The bearish path is a signal failure, where demand and macro dominate. In that case, ETF outflows persist, risk-off positioning deepens, and even a lower level of difficulty is not enough to offset weak demand.

Here, the digital asset could see returns of up to -30% over the next 90 days as BTC revisits major downside zones and miners are forced to sell into a falling market.

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