Market Signal Briefing

Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss transferred $130 million in bitcoin to hot wallets associated with their Gemini crypto exchange over the past week, a move that may signal potential sell-side positioning as their estimated bitcoin profit totals about $1.8 billion, blockchain analytics platform Arkham flagged on Tuesday.

The $130 million move to Gemini's hot wallets was "presumably to sell," Arkham said. The twins continue to hold $764 million in bitcoin following the transfers. Notably, the duo once owned 1% of bitcoin's circulating supply, per Arkham. 

The Winklevoss brothers originally acquired their bitcoin in April 2013, purchasing $11 million worth of the cryptocurrency at $120 per BTC using proceeds from a $65 million settlement in cash and Facebook stock awarded after their legal dispute with Mark Zuckerberg, according to a CNBC report. Their initial investment grew significantly over the following years, surpassing $1 billion in value by December 2017, when bitcoin traded toward $20,000 per coin.

The New York Times reported in 2017 that the duo had sold a portion of their holdings to launch Gemini, the cryptocurrency exchange that raised $425 million in its initial public offering in September 2025, pricing Class A shares at $28 each, above the anticipated range of $24 to $26.

Beyond their commercial ventures, the Winklevoss twins have also directed parts of their bitcoin holdings toward political contributions. In August 2025, Tyler and Cameron donated 188 BTC, valued at approximately $21 million at the time, to the Digital Freedom Fund PAC, a pro-Trump political action committee intended to support the midterm elections.

Other bitcoin movements  The Winklevoss activity coincides with a broader uptick in sovereign and institutional wallet movements over the last 24 hours. On Monday, Bhutan transferred 175 BTC, worth $11.85 million, marking the country’s largest move since a $6.8 million transfer last month. Arkham data shows Bhutan has moved roughly $42.5 million of bitcoin so far in 2026, with the government currently holding about 5,400 BTC, valued at $374 million.

Separately, South Korea's Gwangju Prosecutors' Office sold 320 bitcoin initially seized from a raid on a gambling platform, the office announced Tuesday. Prosecutors had lost the seized bitcoin last year in a phishing attack, but the hacker recently returned the assets to their wallet. 

According to The Block’s BTC price page, bitcoin reclaimed the $70,000 level during Tuesday’s Asia session. The rally follows four consecutive sessions of depreciation driven by a strengthening U.S. dollar and heightened geopolitical risk. 

The price action comes as the network recently surpassed the 20 million BTC mined milestone, leaving fewer than 1 million coins to be issued over the next 114 years.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

© 2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

NYDIG argued that Bitcoin’s latest move alongside U.S. software stocks does not prove the asset has turned into a software equity proxy. In its March 6 weekly research note, the firm said Bitcoin’s rising 90 day correlations are not limited to software shares. Instead, they also extend to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, which points to broader macro and liquidity conditions rather than a direct tie to one sector.

Bitcoin Correlation Rise Looks Broader Than Software StocksThe chart shared by NYDIG shows Bitcoin’s 90 day rolling correlation with the S&P North American Software Index, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and NYSE Semiconductor Index mostly moving in a similar range from June 2025 into early February 2026.

Around late August, all four correlations dropped sharply, then recovered through the fourth quarter. By early February, Bitcoin’s correlation with software stocks stood near the top of the group, but the broader equity links also remained elevated. Source: Bloomberg, NYDIG. The visual suggests Bitcoin moved with risk assets more broadly, not with software names alone.

BTC 90 Day Correlation With Equity Indices. Source: Bloomberg,NYD

The firm said Bitcoin’s correlation with software equities increased after the early October all time high, but so did its correlation with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. At the same time, NYDIG noted that Bitcoin’s link to semiconductor stocks weakened in 2026 even as correlations with broader equities and software moved higher. According to the note, that pattern weakens the claim that Bitcoin is trading on software specific themes such as AI or quantum risk alone.

NYDIG said the cleaner explanation is that Bitcoin is trading like a high beta, liquidity sensitive growth asset in the current macro environment. The note added that Bitcoin is not behaving like a macro hedge, inflation hedge, or gold substitute right now. Even so, NYDIG also argued that equities still explain only part of Bitcoin’s moves. It said a 0.5 correlation implies an R squared near 0.25, meaning about one quarter of price movement would be explained by a single equity factor, while the rest still comes from Bitcoin specific drivers such as fund flows, network activity, positioning, and policy developments.

So, the main takeaway is narrower than the recent social media claim. Bitcoin has been moving more closely with equities, and the chart supports that. However, NYDIG’s data and commentary suggest the relationship is broad based across major stock benchmarks, not proof that Bitcoin has become a software stock in disguise. 

Bitcoin Tests Two Year High Volume Trading ZoneMeanwhile, the chart shared by Daan Crypto Trades shows Bitcoin trading inside the largest volume area formed over the past two years. The volume profile on the right highlights where the most trading activity occurred. The thickest cluster sits around the current level marked by the horizontal green line.

Bitcoin Two Year Volume Profile Support. Source: Daan Crypto Trades on X

This zone stands out because more Bitcoin changed hands here than at any other price during the period shown. When price returns to such areas, markets often slow because many previous positions exist there. As a result, the region can act as a balance point where buyers and sellers interact more actively.

The broader chart structure shows Bitcoin rising to higher levels before moving back toward this heavy volume node. After the previous rally, price declined and returned to the area where the market previously spent the most time trading. That historical activity now makes the level an important structural zone on the chart.

The volume profile also shows thinner trading areas above the current range. Those sections represent price zones where less historical volume accumulated. When price moves into these areas, the path can become smoother because fewer previous positions exist to slow movement.

According to DaanCryptoTrades, the current zone may allow Bitcoin to stabilize and form a range. The recent candles near the high volume node show smaller movements, which often appear when markets pause after a strong trend.

However, the chart also highlights a nearby resistance level. If Bitcoin moves above the upper boundary of the volume cluster near the $72,000 area and holds it, the structure shows lighter historical volume toward the low $80,000 range. That configuration means price could move more freely once it exits the current high volume zone.

Starknet is developing a new privacy capability designed to allow teams to launch shielded stablecoins and other assets while maintaining regulatory compliance.

The capability, known as the STRK20 framework, is being developed by StarkWare and is expected to deploy on Starknet later this year.

The framework is designed to enable token-level privacy for assets issued on Starknet, an Ethereum Layer 2 network, allowing transactions and balances to remain confidential while preserving compatibility with decentralized finance applications. According to the team, Starknet's solution is expected to work across ERC-20 tokens — the standard used for most fungible assets on Ethereum.

"This will enable Ethereum and ERC20s to leverage this privacy capability, including for private DeFi," StarkWare said in a statement shared with The Block, adding that the system aims to support use cases that require confidentiality without sacrificing speed, cost efficiency, or compliance features.

The framework requires no additional infrastructure because the privacy capability is embedded directly at the token level, the team said. Transactions using the system are expected to settle in under five seconds and cost less than $0.20, performance targets the developers say are intended to make privacy features practical for financial applications.

Eli Ben-Sasson, CEO of StarkWare and co-founder of Zcash, said the capability could help accelerate institutional adoption of stablecoins "up about five gears" by providing privacy for transfers, swapping, staking, and other DeFi activity.

Token-level shielding aims to balance DeFi privacy with regulatory compliance STRK20 embeds confidentiality directly into token contracts rather than relying on external tools such as mixers. Under the framework, transaction data is shielded by default, hiding sender, receiver, token type, and transfer amount from public view while preserving composability across decentralized finance applications, according to StarkWare.

"Privacy shouldn't be an afterthought or a compromise to functionality," Ben-Sasson said, adding that the solution provides token teams with "a turnkey framework that turns privacy into a token-level attribute." The approach avoids fragmenting liquidity because privacy features operate within the token itself rather than separating assets into isolated pools, he said. "This, rather, is the DeFi we know, but anonymous."

The framework also includes viewing keys designed to support compliance requirements. These keys enable authorized parties, including regulators and law enforcement, to access transaction data when legally required, while keeping the activity private from the public.

Potential use cases include privacy-enabled stablecoins that protect users from front-running while remaining auditable, corporate payments that shield balances and salary information, and institutional DeFi activity where firms may want to prevent strategies from being publicly visible on blockchain ledgers, the firm said.

The technology is also expected to underpin strkBTC, a bitcoin-based asset Starknet announced last month that aims to enable shielded balances and confidential transfers while maintaining composability across decentralized finance applications. Starknet said the asset forms part of its broader effort to expand bitcoin's role in decentralized finance by allowing holders to participate in financial activity while protecting transaction details from public view.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

© 2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Although Bitcoin is currently back above $71,000 after resuming its rally earlier today, its derivatives market is flashing an unusual bearish signal.

Despite the ongoing price surge, broader market sentiment still remains widely bearish as the market has continued to see frequent short-term rallies since the market cycle flipped bearish late last year. 

While the market volatility had pushed Bitcoin to extremely low levels, hitting prices below half of its all-time high, none of the rallies have been strong enough to help Bitcoin even reclaim the crucial $100,000 level.

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Bitcoin’s funding rate 30-day percentile drops to 6%According to a recent analysis from crypto analytics platform Cryptoquant, Bitcoin's funding rate 30-day percentile has dropped to just 6%, its lowest level since early 2023.

It is important to note that funding rates are a key metric on perpetual futures markets, which determines whether long traders pay short traders or vice versa.

Usually, when the rate turns negative, it means short sellers are paying longs, indicating that traders are increasingly betting on further downside.

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Cryptoquant showcased data from major crypto exchanges like Binance and others, revealing that the 30-day funding rate percentile, which compares today’s funding level against the previous month’s readings, has fallen to an extremely low level. 

Simply put, at 6%, only about 6% of the past 30 days recorded funding rates lower than the current level, meaning 94% of the month saw higher funding than today.

Bitcoin derivatives see sudden bearish shift While the recent market volatility has lasted for months, recent trends show that this bearish positioning on the Bitcoin derivatives market has become persistent. 

Over the past month, 25 out of the last 30 days recorded negative funding rates. This suggests that the derivatives market has been leaning heavily toward short positions for weeks.

This marks a sharp reversal from the conditions seen earlier this year. In January, average daily funding hovered around +0.005%, with the funding percentile remaining above 80% for much of the month. This means that long traders were largely paying shorts at the time as bullish sentiment dominated.

However, this changed in February when the market dynamics flipped bearish as average funding dropped to around -0.003%, and the bearish pressure intensified into March, where the average has fallen further to about -0.004%. 

Roman Storm, a Tornado Cash co-founder and developer, has criticized proceedings against him as an attempt “to make writing code a crime.” Mar 10, 2026, 12:17 p.m.

U.S. prosecutors asked a federal judge to set an October date for the retrial of Tornado Cash developer Roman Storm on two unresolved criminal counts after a jury failed to reach unanimous verdicts during the original hearing, according to a letter filed Monday in the Southern District of New York.

In a letter to U.S. District Judge Katherine Polk Failla, U.S. attorney Jay Clayton, a former chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC, asked for a date now to "to avoid further unnecessary delays," even though Storm, who is currently free on bail, has a pending motion for a judgment of acquittal. Oral arguments on that motion are scheduled for April 9.

Storm is a co-founder of Tornado Cash, a crypto mixer designed to obscure the origin and destination of blockchain transactions. In August, a jury convicted Storm on one count tied to operating an unlicensed money-transmitting business, and failed to agree on verdicts for two other charges, leaving alleged violations of money laundering sanctions law unresolved. He is currently free on bail while awaiting further proceedings.

Storm criticized the planned retrial in an X post on Tuesday, saying the jury’s split decision reflected uncertainty about the government’s case.

“A jury of 12 Americans heard four weeks of evidence and deadlocked: no verdict on money laundering, and no verdict on sanctions violations,” Storm wrote. “The government’s response? Try again to make writing code a crime.”

Storm also referred to a U.S. Treasury report acknowledging that mixing services like Tornado Cash can serve lawful purposes on public blockchains. The report came after years of opposition to crypto mixers.

Defense lawyers told prosecutors that setting a trial date before the April motion is resolved would be premature.

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The capital will be used to expand development of the Zcash (ZEC) protocol and its privacy-focused self-custodial mobile wallet, Zodl.

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Zcash Open Development Lab (ZODL), a new group formed by the former core team of the Electric Coin Company (ECC), has raised over $25 million in seed funding.The lab emerged after the entire ECC engineering and product team resigned in January 2026 following a governance dispute with Bootstrap, the nonprofit board that oversees ECC.The funding will be used to expand development of the Zcash protocol and its privacy-focused self-custodial mobile wallet, Zodl (formerly Zashi).

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart revealed Monday that the top 30 institutional holders of US spot Solana ETFs scooped up over $540 million in Q4 — signaling serious institutional appetite for SOL.

Silicon Valley powerhouse Electric Capital Partners and financial giant Goldman Sachs led the charge, snapping up the largest stakes in US spot Solana ETFs — which only hit the market last October.

Notably, Electric Capital and Goldman Sachs grabbed the top two spots, buying $137.8M and $107.4M in Solana ETFs, while Elequin Capital, SIG Holding, and Multicoin Capital completed the elite top five.

Morgan Stanley and Citadel Advisors joined the rush, snapping up spot Solana ETFs following Bitwise’s launch of the first SEC-approved spot SOL ETF on October 28, which was one of the hottest ETF launches of 2025.

Seyffart’s insights are drawn from mid-February 13F filings with the SEC, where institutions managing $100M+ must reveal their Q4 holdings — offering a clear look at who’s betting big on the seventh-largest cryptocurrency.

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Investment advisors dominated spot Solana ETF ownership with over $270M, followed by hedge funds at $186.4M. Holding companies and brokerages added $59.5M and $20.3M, while banks trailed with just $4.5M — showing who’s really driving the SOL frenzy.

Spot Solana ETFs now hold a total of $814.3 million in assets under management. It now represents roughly 1.66% of Solana’s total $49.7 billion market cap.

4.3M SOL tokens underpinning the $540M in ETF holdings have lost roughly 30% of their value since Q4, tumbling from $124.95 to $86.53 — marking a rollercoaster ride for crypto investors.

Meanwhile, major cryptos rebounded on Monday as hopes for a ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict triggered a risk‑on rally — with Solana leading the charge higher. SOL gained 4.1% to $86.49, according to CoinGecko.

Solana has plunged 57% since US ETFs launched, yet the funds have still amassed $1.5B in flows — and have not “really given any of it up,” Seyffart’s colleague, Eric Balchunas, recently noted. Half of those inflows come from institutional investors, which Balchunas hailed as a “serious investor base” and a bullish signal for SOL’s future.

Bitcoin (BTC) dominance has consolidated in a tight range of 60% and 58.8% between January 1, and March 10, 2026, thus further delaying altseason 2026.

In the weekly timeframe, the BTC dominance has, however, signaled its reversal after breaking down from a bearish pennant pattern, according to renowned crypto trader TATrader_Allan. 

The cryptocurrency analyst believes that Bitcoin dominance, in the weekly chart, has already formed a lower low, thus predicting a fresh capitulation in the coming weeks.

BTC dominance 1W chart. Source: TradingView As such, the odds of altseason 2026 materializing in the coming months, akin to the 2021 crypto summer, have surged significantly. Moreover, the Altcoin Season Index has risen to 37/100 at press time from 22/100 at the beginning of February, based on data from CoinMarketCap.

Altcoin Season Index 90-day. Source: CoinMarketCap How big will altseason 2026 be as BTC dominance reverses  From a technical analysis standpoint, the 2026 altseason is expected to mirror its 2021 performance, as per crypto trader Matthew Hyland. He argued that an incoming monthly death cross of Bitcoin dominance will trigger its next major crash below 40%.

BTC dominance monthly chart. Source: TradingView However, with the help of institutional funds and mainstream retail adoption, the altseason 2026 could outshine its 2021 performance to mirror the 2017 bull market. 

What’s the ultimate trigger for an altcoin bull rally in 2026?  The ultimate trigger for an altcoin bull rally in 2026 will be the passage and enactment of the Clarity Act in the United States. Furthermore, Cardano (ADA) founder Charles Hoskinson has argued in the past that the delay of passing the Clarity Act in 2025 caused the bull market’s misfire.

With President Donald Trump advocating for the passage of the digital assets market structure bill before the end of this year, an altcoin’s bull rally is well-positioned to kickstart before the end of this year.

US prosecutors are seeking a retrial for Tornado Cash co-founder Roman Storm on two charges where a jury failed to reach a unanimous verdict last year.

Manhattan U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton filed a notice to Federal Judge Katherine Polk Failla requesting that the court set a potential retrial window between October 5 and October 12. According to the filing, the parties estimate the trial would last about three weeks.

Prosecutors initially indicated they were ready to begin the trial earlier in the year, between March and May. However, Storm’s legal team told the court that their schedule remains fully occupied with other matters until the end of 2026.

The retrial request follows a previous verdict in August when jurors found Storm guilty of conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money transmission business. However, the jury was unable to reach a decision on two other counts, leaving prosecutors the option to pursue another trial.

Charges against Roman Storm remain unresolvedThe potential retrial focuses on two accusations: conspiracy to commit money laundering and conspiracy to violate sanctions.

Storm has consistently denied the allegations. In October 2025, he filed a motion asking the court to acquit him of the conviction related to operating an unlicensed money transmission business. His lawyers argued that prosecutors failed to demonstrate that he intended to assist illicit activity conducted through Tornado Cash.

In the filing requesting a retrial date, Clayton acknowledged that Storm’s legal team believes scheduling a new trial is premature because the court has not yet ruled on the pending motion for acquittal. That hearing is scheduled for early April.

Storm warns charges could mean decades in prisonStorm has also publicly addressed the case on the social media platform X. He said the remaining charges could expose him to up to 40 years in federal prison.

He added that the previous jury was unable to agree on whether a crime occurred, but prosecutors are attempting another trial in hopes of a different outcome.

Amanda Tuminelli, chief legal officer at the crypto advocacy group DeFi Education Fund, criticized the Justice Department’s decision to seek a retrial. She described the move as “extremely disappointing,” arguing that prosecutors failed to persuade the jury during the first trial.

Storm has also pointed to what he sees as a contradiction within the Justice Department. In April 2025, Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche issued a memorandum stating that the department “is not a regulator of digital assets” and would no longer pursue prosecutions that effectively impose regulatory frameworks on the industry.

The case is unfolding amid broader policy debates about crypto privacy tools. In the same month as Blanche’s memo, the U.S. Treasury Department released a report to Congress acknowledging that crypto mixers can have legitimate uses, including protecting consumer transaction privacy.

Why the case could affect the entire crypto industryLegal experts say the outcome of Storm’s case could have far-reaching implications for software developers working on decentralized protocols.

Historically, there have been few cases where an open-source developer faced criminal liability for how third parties used software they created. The Tornado Cash case therefore raises a fundamental legal question about where the line lies between building a tool and being responsible for its misuse.

The court’s answer could influence how regulators and prosecutors approach developers of decentralized financial tools and privacy technologies in the future.

With prosecutors pushing forward and key motions still pending, the case is likely to remain a focal point in the ongoing debate over crypto regulation, privacy, and developer responsibility in the United States.

The circular nature of funding for artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure has weighed on technology stocks. However, Microsoft's NASDAQ: MSFT recent announcement that it would continue to integrate Anthropic into its products, despite objections from the Trump administration, shows why its investments are paying off for users and shareholders.

Here’s the background. On March 5, the U.S. Department of Defense informed AI company Anthropic that it would label the company a supply-chain risk and would discontinue the use of its products within six months. President Trump went one step further and called for all federal agencies to discontinue their use of Anthropic.

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Microsoft was the first company to announce it would continue to make Anthropic products, including Claude, available to its federal government customers, excluding the U.S. Department of Defense.

This isn’t just a symbolic gesture of defiance. In November 2025, Microsoft committed to invest up to $5 billion in Anthropic, which in turn committed to purchase $30 billion of Azure compute capacity and to contract additional capacity up to one gigawatt.

It’s been a profitable partnership. Microsoft spends approximately $500 million per year to use Anthropic AI in its suite of products. Furthermore, Microsoft allows its Azure sales team to count sales of Anthropic AI models as part of their sales quotas.

The benefit to shareholders goes beyond the company’s relationship with Anthropic. There’s also a bullish story for Microsoft related to its ongoing partnership with OpenAI.

GPT-5.4 Launch Expands Microsoft’s AI Ecosystem On the same day Microsoft announced it was standing by Anthropic, OpenAI also launched ChatGPT-5.4. OpenAI is framing GPT-5.4 as its “most capable and efficient frontier model for professional work.” It’s available as a standard model, a reasoning model (GPT-5.4 Thinking), and a high-performance variant labeled GPT-5.4 Pro.

Here’s where the story becomes more interesting. By providing the computational horsepower for both Anthropic’s Claude and OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Microsoft has positioned Azure as the critical close ecosystem for much of the AI environment.

Allowing its customers to have access to both models creates a “best model for the job” scenario. Microsoft can route tasks to whichever model performs the best. That means Microsoft wins no matter which model customers prefer.

Azure’s Explosive Growth Is Being Fueled by AI Workloads That model-agnostic position only holds its value if the underlying infrastructure keeps scaling. But that’s exactly what Azure is doing. In Microsoft’s most recent earnings report, Azure surpassed $75 billion in annual revenue in fiscal 2025, growing 34% for the full year and 39% year-over-year (YOY) for the quarter.

That growth is getting a significant boost from AI-related workloads embedded across the product stack as Copilot adoption spreads across Office, GitHub, and enterprise software suites. That’s the flywheel effect that investors should focus on. With roughly 25% global cloud market share and 85% of Fortune 500 companies now using Azure, Microsoft has become the default cloud infrastructure layer for enterprise AI adoption.

Copilot and Azure Are Creating a Powerful Enterprise Flywheel The relationship between Microsoft's AI products and its cloud business can't be understated. Every Copilot seat sold drives more Azure consumption. Every Azure contract creates a natural on-ramp for Copilot adoption. The two businesses are accelerating each other in ways that are increasingly visible in Microsoft's financial results.

Microsoft chief executive officer (CEO) Satya Nadella has noted that more than 90% of the Fortune 500 now use Microsoft 365 Copilot, and the product is increasingly being treated less like a chatbot add-on and more like a core enterprise platform.

That said, Copilot adoption is still in its early stages, which is arguably more bullish than bearish. Most organizations are running pilots and phased rollouts rather than full enterprise-wide deployments.

MSFT Stock Shows Signs of a Potential Bullish Reversal Of course, all this good news won’t matter much to shareholders if the outlook for Microsoft’s stock price doesn’t improve. MSFT stock is down over 15% in 2026, mostly due to a steep gap down after its earnings report, triggered by AI bubble fears that were amplified by the selloff in software stocks. 

But that may also change. The chart shows signs of a bottoming. The question for investors is what the upside for the stock looks like. For now, that looks limited. However, the stock has managed to climb above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). If it can hold that level and build on a recent pattern of higher highs and higher lows, there could be confirmation of a bullish reversal.

Analysts remain bullish on MSFT stock. The Microsoft analyst forecasts on MarketBeat give the stock a consensus price target of $591.95, which would be a nearly 45% gain. It’s worth noting that several recent price targets are much higher than the consensus price. Those targets are supported by institutional buying, which was up strongly in the last quarter.

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Tuesday, 10 March 2026 07:15 AM

Topic: 

Earnings FY25 EPS of $0.08; FY25 Adjusted EPS growth of 5% to $0.83

YoY Increase in Cash Flow from Operations of $148 million; Free Cash Flow more than doubled to $187 million

FY25 YoY Revenue Growth of 2%; FY25 YoY Net Revenue Growth of 6%

FY25 YoY Net Revenue Growth excluding Advocacy of 9%, Digital Transformation Net Revenue Growth of 13%, Marketing Services Net Revenue Growth of 6%

The Marketing Cloud delivered YoY Net Revenue Growth of 230%

FY25 Net Income Attributable to Stagwell Inc. Common Shareholders of $29 million; FY25 Adjusted EBITDA of $422 million; FY25 Adjusted EBITDA ex. Advocacy YoY Growth of 16% to $377 million

Net New Business of $106 million in Q4; LTM Net New Business of $476 million

Company Announces $350 Million Increase in Stock Repurchase Program; $400 Million Now Available Under the Program

Guidance for 2026 of Total Net Revenue Growth of 8% to 12%; Adjusted EBITDA of $475 million to $525 million; Free Cash Flow Conversion of 50% to 60%

NEW YORK CITY, NY / ACCESS Newswire / March 10, 2026 / (NASDAQ:STGW) - Stagwell Inc. ("Stagwell") today announced financial results for the year ended December 31, 2025.

FOURTH QUARTER AND FULL YEAR RESULTS:

Q4 Revenue of $807 million, an increase of 2% versus the prior year period; FY25 Revenue of $2,909 million, an increase of 2% versus the prior year period;

Q4 Revenue ex. Advocacy of $742 million, an increase of 12% versus the prior year period; FY25 Revenue ex. Advocacy of $2,689 million, an increase of 9% versus the prior year period;

Q4 Net Revenue of $651 million, an increase of 3% versus the prior year period; FY25 Net Revenue of $2,428 million, an increase of 6% versus the prior year period;

Q4 Net Revenue ex. Advocacy of $609 million, an increase of 8% versus the prior year period; FY25 Net Revenue ex. Advocacy of $2,282 million, an increase of 9% versus the prior year period;

Q4 Net Income attributable to Stagwell Inc. Common Shareholders of $13 million versus $3 million in the prior year period; FY25 Net Income attributable to Stagwell Inc. Common Shareholders of $29 million versus $2 million in the prior year period;

Q4 Adjusted EBITDA of $129 million, an increase of 3% versus the prior year period; FY25 Adjusted EBITDA of $422 million, an increase of 1% versus the prior year period;

Q4 Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 20% on net revenue; FY25 Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 17% on net revenue;

Q4 Earnings Per Share Attributable to Stagwell Inc. Common Shareholders of $0.05 versus $0.03 in the prior year period; FY25 Earnings Per Share Attributable to Stagwell Inc. Common Shareholders of $0.08 versus $0.02 in the prior year period;

Q4 Adjusted Earnings Per Share attributable to Stagwell Inc. Common Shareholders of $0.30 versus $0.25 in the prior year period; FY25 Adjusted Earnings Per Share attributable to Stagwell Inc. Common Shareholders of $0.83 versus $0.79 in the prior year period;

YTD Net Cash provided by Operating Activities of $291 million versus $143 million in the prior year period;

Net new business of $106 million in the fourth quarter, last twelve-month net new business of $476 million

See "Non-GAAP Financial Measures" below for explanations and reconciliations of the Company's non-GAAP financial measures.

"In 2025, Stagwell increased its strategic pivot toward AI applications and services, building a powerful foundation for 2026. With accelerating growth ex-advocacy, record net new business, expanding margins and doubled free cash flow, our FY25 results prove our strategy is working," shared Mark Penn, Stagwell's Chairman and CEO. "We see great opportunity in 2026 to capitalize on an industry distracted by restructurings and mergers, and bolster our position as a winner in the age of AI."

Ryan Greene, Chief Financial Officer, commented: "2025 marked an inflection year for Stagwell, with clear momentum in the underlying business and improving efficiency contributing to strong year-over-year net revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS growth. Proactive cash management meant we more than doubled our free cash flow in 2025. We expect another strong year in 2026, and will be aggressive in our capital allocation to drive shareholder value."

Financial Outlook

2026 financial guidance is as follows:

Total Net Revenue growth of 8% to 12%

Adjusted EBITDA of $475 million to $525 million

Free Cash Flow Conversion of 50% to 60%

Adjusted EPS of $0.98 - $1.12

Guidance includes anticipated impact from acquisitions or dispositions.

* The Company has excluded a quantitative reconciliation with respect to the Company's 2026 guidance under the "unreasonable efforts" exception in Item 10(e)(1)(i)(B) of Regulation S-K. See "Non-GAAP Financial Measures" below for additional information.

Stock Repurchase Program

On March 4, 2026, the Board of Directors authorized an extension and a $350.0 million increase in the size of our previously approved stock repurchase program (the "Repurchase Program"). Under the Repurchase Program, as amended, we may repurchase up to an aggregate of $725.0 million of shares of our outstanding Class A common stock, par value $0.001 per share ("Class A Common Stock"), with any previous purchases under the Repurchase Program continuing to count against that limit. With the increase, we have a total of approximately $400.0 million available for repurchases. The Repurchase Program will expire on March 4, 2029.

Video Webcast

Management will host a video webcast on Tuesday, March 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. (ET) to discuss results for Stagwell Inc. for the year ended December 31, 2025. The video webcast will be accessible at https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/3x58p928/. An investor presentation has been posted on our website at www.stagwellglobal.com and may be referred to during the webcast.

A recording of the webcast will be accessible one hour after the webcast and available for ninety days at www.stagwellglobal.com.

Stagwell Inc.

Stagwell is the challenger network built to transform marketing. We deliver scaled creative performance for the world's most ambitious brands, connecting culture-moving creativity with leading-edge technology to harmonize the art and science of marketing. Led by entrepreneurs, our specialists in 45+ countries are unified under a single purpose: to drive effectiveness and improve business results for their clients. Join us at www.stagwellglobal.com.

Contacts

For Investors:
Ben Allanson
[email protected]

For Press:
Beth Sidhu
[email protected]

Non-GAAP Financial Measures

In addition to its reported results, Stagwell Inc. has included in this earnings release certain financial results that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) defines as "non-GAAP Financial Measures." Management believes that such non-GAAP financial measures, when read in conjunction with the Company's reported results, can provide useful supplemental information for investors analyzing period to period comparisons of the Company's results. Such non-GAAP financial measures include the following:

(1) Organic Net Revenue: "Organic net revenue growth" and "Organic net revenue decline" reflects the year-over-year change in the Company's reported net revenue attributable to the Company's management of the entities it owns. We calculate organic net revenue growth (decline) by subtracting the net impact of acquisitions (divestitures) and the impact of foreign currency exchange fluctuations from the aggregate year-over-year increase or decrease in the Company's reported net revenue. The net impact of acquisitions (divestitures) reflects the year-over-year change in the Company's reported net revenue attributable to the impact of all individual entities that were acquired or divested in the current and prior year. We calculate impact of an acquisition as follows: (a) for an entity acquired during the current year, we present the entity's current period reported revenue as the impact of the acquisition in the current year; and (b) for an entity acquired in the prior year, we present an amount equal to the entity's current year net revenue for the same period during which we didn't own the entity in the prior year as the impact of the acquisition in the current year. We calculate impact of a divestiture as follows: (a) for a divestiture in the current year, we present the entity's prior year net revenue for the same period during which we no longer owned it in the current year as impact of the divestiture in the current year; and (b) for a divestiture in the prior year, we present the entity's prior year net revenue for the period during which we owned it in the prior year as impact of the divestiture in the current year. We calculate the impact of any acquisition or divestiture without adjusting for foreign currency exchange fluctuations. The impact of foreign currency exchange fluctuations reflects the year-over-year change in the Company's reported net revenue attributable to changes in foreign currency exchange rates. We calculate the impact of foreign currency exchange fluctuations for the portion of the reporting period in which we recognized revenue from a foreign entity in both the current year and the prior year. The impact is calculated as the difference between (1) reported prior period net revenue (converted to U.S. dollars at historical foreign currency exchange rates) and (2) prior period net revenue converted to U.S. dollars at current period foreign exchange rates.

(2) Net New Business: Estimate of annualized revenue for new wins less annualized revenue for losses incurred in the period.

(3) Adjusted EBITDA: defined as Net income (loss) attributable to Stagwell Inc. common shareholders excluding non-operating income or expense to achieve operating income (loss), plus depreciation and amortization, stock-based compensation, deferred acquisition consideration adjustments, impairment and other losses, and other items. Other items primarily includes restructuring, certain system implementation, working capital administrative fees and acquisition-related expenses. Adjusted EBITDA for our reportable segments is reconciled to Operating Income (Loss), as Net Income (Loss) is not a relevant reportable segment financial metric.

(4) Adjusted Diluted EPS" is defined as (i) Net income (loss) attributable to Stagwell Inc. common shareholders, plus net income (loss) attributable to Class C shareholders, excluding the impact of amortization expense, impairment and other losses, stock-based compensation, deferred acquisition consideration adjustments, discrete tax items, and other items (as defined above), based on total consolidated amounts, then allocated to Stagwell Inc. common shareholders and Class C shareholders, based on their respective income allocation percentage using a normalized effective income tax rate divided by (ii) the diluted weighted average shares outstanding. The diluted weighted average shares outstanding is calculated as (a) the diluted weighted average number of common shares outstanding plus (b) the shares of Class C Common Stock as if converted to shares of Class A Common Stock if not included because they were anti-dilutive.

(5) Free Cash Flow: defined as Net cash provided from operations less normalized capital expenditures and capitalized software. Free Cash Flow Conversion is the percentage of adjusted EBITDA.

Included in this earnings release are tables reconciling reported Stagwell Inc. results to arrive at certain of these non-GAAP financial measures.

This document contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"). The Company's representatives may also make forward-looking statements orally or in writing from time to time. Statements in this document that are not historical facts, including, statements about the Company's beliefs and expectations, future financial performance, growth, and future prospects, the Company's strategy, business and economic trends and growth, technological leadership and differentiation, potential and completed acquisitions, anticipated and actual operating efficiencies and synergies and estimates of amounts for redeemable noncontrolling interests and deferred acquisition consideration, constitute forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements, which are generally denoted by words such as "ability," "aim," "anticipate," "assume," "believe," "better," "build," "consider," "continue," "could," "develop," "drive," "enhance," "estimate," "expect," "focus," "forecast," "future," "grow," "guidance," "improve," "intend," "likely," "maintain," "may," "ongoing,", "outlook," "plan," "position," "possible," "potential," "probable," "project," "seek," "should," "target," "will," "would" or the negative of such terms or other variations thereof and terms of similar substance used in connection with any discussion of current plans, estimates and projections are subject to change based on a number of factors, including those outlined in this section.

Forward-looking statements in this document are based on certain key expectations and assumptions made by the Company. Although the management of the Company believes that the expectations and assumptions on which such forward-looking statements are based are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on the forward-looking statements because the Company can give no assurance that they will prove to be correct. The material assumptions upon which such forward-looking statements are based include, among others, assumptions with respect to general business, economic and market conditions, the competitive environment, anticipated and unanticipated tax consequences and anticipated and unanticipated costs. These forward-looking statements are based on current plans, estimates and projections, and are subject to change based on a number of factors, including those outlined in this section. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties, many of which are outside the Company's control. Therefore, you should not place undue reliance on such statements. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and the Company undertakes no obligation to update publicly any of them in light of new information or future events, if any.

Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statements. Such risk factors include, but are not limited to, the following:

risks associated with international, national and regional unfavorable economic conditions, including the effect of changing tariff and other trade policies, inflation and other macroeconomic factors that could affect the Company or its clients;

demand for the Company's services, which may precipitate or exacerbate other risks and uncertainties;

inflation and actions taken by central banks to counter inflation;

the Company's ability to attract new clients and retain existing clients;

the impact of a reduction in client spending and changes in client advertising, marketing and corporate communications requirements;

financial failure of the Company's clients;

the Company's ability to retain and attract key employees;

the Company's ability to compete in the markets in which it operates;

the Company's ability to achieve its cost saving initiatives;

the Company's implementation of strategic initiatives;

the Company's ability to remain in compliance with its debt agreements and the Company's ability to finance its contingent payment obligations when due and payable, including but not limited to those relating to redeemable noncontrolling interests, deferred acquisition consideration and profit interests;

the Company's ability to manage its growth effectively;

the Company's ability to identify and complete acquisitions or other strategic transactions that complement and expand the Company's business capabilities and successfully integrate newly acquired businesses into the Company's operations, retain key employees, and realize cost savings, synergies and other related anticipated benefits within the expected time period;

the Company's ability to identify and complete divestitures and to achieve the anticipated benefits therefrom;

the Company's ability to develop products incorporating new technologies, including augmented reality, artificial intelligence, and virtual reality, and realize benefits from such products;

the Company's use of artificial intelligence, including generative artificial intelligence;

adverse tax consequences for the Company, its operations and its stockholders, that may differ from the expectations of the Company, including that recent or future changes in tax laws, potential changes to corporate tax rates in the United States and disagreements with tax authorities on the Company's determinations that may result in increased tax costs;

adverse tax consequences in connection with the business combination that formed the Company in August 2021, including the incurrence of material Canadian federal income tax (including material "emigration tax");

the Company's ability to maintain an effective system of internal control over financial reporting, including the risk that the Company's internal controls will fail to detect misstatements in its financial statements;

the Company's ability to accurately forecast its future financial performance and provide accurate guidance;

the Company's ability to protect client data from security incidents or cyberattacks;

economic disruptions resulting from war and other economic and geopolitical tensions (such as the ongoing military conflicts in Iran and the Middle East, and between Russia and Ukraine), terrorist activities, natural disasters, public health events, and tariff and trade policies;

stock price volatility; and

foreign currency fluctuations.

Investors should carefully consider these risks factors, the additional risk factors outlined under the caption "Risk Factors" in this Form 10-K, and in the Company's other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the"SEC") which are accessible on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov.

SCHEDULE 1
STAGWELL INC.
UNAUDITED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS
(amounts in thousands, except per share amounts)

Three Months Ended December 31,

Year Ended December 31,

2025

2024

2025

2024

Revenue

$

807,444

$

788,708

$

2,909,000

$

2,841,216

Operating Expenses

Cost of services

503,718

502,522

1,845,958

1,842,978

Office and general expenses

203,481

203,887

732,326

711,803

Depreciation and amortization

43,614

38,771

171,249

151,652

Impairment and other losses

-

-

466

1,715

750,813

745,180

2,749,999

2,708,148

Operating Income

56,631

43,528

159,001

133,068

Other income (expenses):

Interest expense, net

(24,431

)

(24,038

)

(96,438

)

(92,317

)

Foreign exchange, net

(1,156

)

645

(1,640

)

(1,656

)

Gain (loss) on sale of business

(2,245

)

-

(2,245

)

-

Bargain purchase gain

9,937

-

9,937

-

Other, net

2,314

(547

)

171

(1,372

)

(15,581

)

(23,940

)

(90,215

)

(95,345

)

Income before income taxes and equity in earnings of non-consolidated affiliates

41,050

19,588

68,786

37,723

Income tax expense

24,321

3,741

38,271

13,182

Income before equity in earnings of non-consolidated affiliates

16,729

15,847

30,515

24,541

Equity in income of non-consolidated affiliates

93

-

111

503

Net income

16,822

15,847

30,626

25,044

Net income attributable to noncontrolling and redeemable noncontrolling interests

(4,162

)

(12,612

)

(1,525

)

(22,785

)

Net income attributable to Stagwell Inc. common shareholders

$

12,660

$

3,235

$

29,101

$

2,259

Earnings Per Common Share:

Basic

$

0.05

$

0.03

$

0.13

$

0.02

Diluted

$

0.05

$

0.03

$

0.08

$

0.02

Weighted Average Number of Common Shares Outstanding:

Basic

251,650

109,266

220,608

110,890

Diluted

258,997

115,147

264,523

115,752

SCHEDULE 2
STAGWELL INC.
UNAUDITED COMPONENTS OF NET REVENUE CHANGE
(amounts in thousands)

Net Revenue - Components of Change

Change

Three Months Ended December 31, 2024

Foreign Currency

Net Acquisitions (Divestitures)

Organic (1)

Total Change

Three Months Ended December 31, 2025

Organic

Total

Marketing Services

$

240,262

$

2,017

$

1,315

$

1,215

$

4,547

$

244,809

0.5

%

1.9

%

Digital Transformation

84,570

(130

)

5,419

2,335

7,624

92,194

2.8

%

9.0

%

Media & Commerce

161,720

1,745

3,154

11,546

16,445

178,165

7.1

%

10.2

%

Communications

131,736

385

-

(23,796

)

(23,411

)

108,325

(18.1

)%

(17.8

)%

The Marketing Cloud

13,122

485

8,706

5,404

14,595

27,717

41.2

%

111.2

%

Corporate, eliminations and other

(1,787

)

-

-

1,410

1,410

(377

)

(78.9

)%

(78.9

)%

$

629,623

$

4,502

$

18,594

$

(1,886

)

$

21,210

$

650,833

(0.3

)%

3.4

%

(1) See Non-GAAP Financial Measures section above for the definition of Organic Net Revenue.

SCHEDULE 3
STAGWELL INC.
UNAUDITED COMPONENTS OF NET REVENUE CHANGE
(amounts in thousands)

Net Revenue - Components of Change

Change

Year Ended December 31, 2024

Foreign Currency

Net Acquisitions (Divestitures)

Organic (1)

Total Change

Year Ended December 31, 2025

Organic

Total

Marketing Services

$

905,117

$

3,491

$

9,788

$

41,280

$

54,559

$

959,676

4.6

%

6.0

%

Digital Transformation

324,183

(405

)

13,615

29,779

42,989

367,172

9.2

%

13.3

%

Media & Commerce

601,503

3,396

5,829

(708

)

8,517

610,020

(0.1

)%

1.4

%

Communications

435,626

547

29,002

(71,744

)

(42,195

)

393,431

(16.5

)%

(9.7

)%

The Marketing Cloud

32,265

941

62,229

11,051

74,221

106,486

34.3

%

230.0

%

Corporate, eliminations and other

(2,032

)

-

-

(7,082

)

(7,082

)

(9,114

)

NM

NM

$

2,296,662

$

7,970

$

120,463

$

2,576

$

131,009

$

2,427,671

0.1

%

5.7

%

(1) See Non-GAAP Financial Measures section above for the definition of Organic Net Revenue.

SCHEDULE 4
STAGWELL INC.
UNAUDITED SEGMENT OPERATING RESULTS
(amounts in thousands)

For the Three Months Ended December 31, 2025

Marketing Services

Digital Transformation

Media & Commerce

Communications

The Marketing Cloud

Corporate, Elimination and Other

Total

Net revenue

$

244,809

$

92,194

$

178,165

$

108,325

$

27,717

$

(377

)

$

650,833

Billable costs

50,555

9,117

32,862

64,037

35

5

156,611

Revenue

295,364

101,311

211,027

172,362

27,752

(372

)

807,444

Billable costs

50,555

9,117

32,862

64,037

35

5

156,611

Staff costs

144,258

63,081

93,713

57,083

14,964

17,055

390,154

Administrative costs

20,304

7,668

25,988

13,799

4,243

12,238

84,240

Unbillable and other costs, net

18,103

154

21,000

2,390

5,511

(1

)

47,157

Adjusted EBITDA(1)

62,144

21,291

37,464

35,053

2,999

(29,669

)

129,282

Stock-based compensation

4,647

1,041

1,127

(435

)

87

3,486

9,953

Depreciation and amortization

12,154

5,924

8,637

6,362

6,078

4,459

43,614

Deferred acquisition consideration

-

4,542

68

(2,143

)

(23

)

-

2,444

Impairment and other losses

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Other items, net(1)

5,996

366

7,437

1,362

1,042

437

16,640

Operating income (loss)

$

39,347

$

9,418

$

20,195

$

29,907

$

(4,185

)

$

(38,051

)

$

56,631

(1) See Non-GAAP Financial Measures section above for the definition of Adjusted EBITDA and Other items, net.

SCHEDULE 5
STAGWELL INC.
UNAUDITED SEGMENT OPERATING RESULTS
(amounts in thousands)

For the Year Ended December 31, 2025

Marketing Services

Digital Transformation

Media & Commerce

Communications

The Marketing Cloud

Corporate, Elimination and Other

Total

Net revenue

$

959,676

$

367,172

$

610,020

$

393,431

$

106,486

$

(9,114

)

$

2,427,671

Billable costs

175,145

26,327

80,655

199,146

51

5

481,329

Revenue

1,134,821

393,499

690,675

592,577

106,537

(9,109

)

2,909,000

Billable costs

175,145

26,327

80,655

199,146

51

5

481,329

Staff costs

565,484

247,967

363,031

229,356

68,647

52,411

1,526,896

Administrative costs

105,801

27,267

93,003

50,841

17,613

7,938

302,463

Unbillable and other costs, net

78,333

1,305

64,833

9,300

22,689

(1

)

176,459

Adjusted EBITDA(1)

210,058

90,633

89,153

103,934

(2,463

)

(69,462

)

421,853

Stock-based compensation

19,716

4,122

4,191

6,325

628

19,113

54,095

Depreciation and amortization

52,295

23,174

30,263

25,711

23,514

16,292

171,249

Deferred acquisition consideration

(4,784

)

12,271

3,010

(7,022

)

(10,942

)

-

(7,467

)

Impairment and other losses

-

-

-

222

244

-

466

Other items, net(1)

10,228

1,859

17,549

5,048

3,651

6,174

44,509

Operating income (loss)

$

132,603

$

49,207

$

34,140

$

73,650

$

(19,558

)

$

(111,041

)

$

159,001

(1) See Non-GAAP Financial Measures section above for the definition of Adjusted EBITDA and Other items, net.

SCHEDULE 6
STAGWELL INC.
UNAUDITED SEGMENT OPERATING RESULTS
(amounts in thousands)

For the Three Months Ended December 31, 2024

Marketing Services

Digital Transformation

Media & Commerce

Communications

The Marketing Cloud

Corporate, Elimination and Other

Total

Net revenue

$

240,262

$

84,570

$

161,720

$

131,736

$

13,122

$

(1,787

)

$

629,623

Billable costs

48,294

2,110

11,719

97,372

-

(410

)

159,085

Revenue

288,556

86,680

173,439

229,108

13,122

(2,197

)

788,708

Billable costs

48,294

2,110

11,719

97,372

-

(410

)

159,085

Staff costs

146,876

60,557

91,108

69,381

10,614

11,685

390,221

Administrative costs

25,300

6,102

22,190

13,646

2,725

3,312

73,275

Unbillable and other costs, net

15,458

605

18,944

2,882

2,860

-

40,749

Adjusted EBITDA(1)

52,628

17,306

29,478

45,827

(3,077

)

(16,784

)

125,378

Stock-based compensation

2,093

(1,480

)

1,866

2,254

157

8,345

13,235

Depreciation and amortization

12,680

5,585

7,301

6,556

3,193

3,456

38,771

Deferred acquisition consideration

3,379

4,221

(1,292

)

9,673

(936

)

-

15,045

Other items, net(1)

8,823

201

1,863

1,403

88

2,421

14,799

Operating income (loss)

$

25,653

$

8,779

$

19,740

$

25,941

$

(5,579

)

$

(31,006

)

$

43,528

(1) See Non-GAAP Financial Measures section above for the definition of Adjusted EBITDA and Other items.

SCHEDULE 7
STAGWELL INC.
UNAUDITED SEGMENT OPERATING RESULTS
(amounts in thousands)

For the Year Ended December 31, 2024

Marketing Services

Digital Transformation

Media & Commerce

Communications

The Marketing Cloud

Corporate, Elimination and Other

Total

Net revenue

$

905,117

$

324,183

$

601,503

$

435,626

$

32,265

$

(2,032

)

$

2,296,662

Billable costs

172,490

11,473

93,899

267,439

-

(747

)

544,554

Revenue

1,077,607

335,656

695,402

703,065

32,265

(2,779

)

2,841,216

Billable costs

172,490

11,473

93,899

267,439

-

(747

)

544,554

Staff costs

557,776

227,522

356,684

232,096

28,686

46,942

1,449,706

Administrative costs

101,145

21,809

83,572

47,335

9,777

11,408

275,046

Unbillable and other costs, net

70,924

1,393

65,188

10,840

6,117

-

154,462

Adjusted EBITDA(1)

175,272

73,459

96,059

145,355

(12,315

)

(60,382

)

417,448

Stock-based compensation

17,095

6,622

6,265

7,721

805

13,653

52,161

Depreciation and amortization

53,106

22,398

31,450

20,100

12,502

12,096

151,652

Deferred acquisition consideration

5,379

7,911

(7,745

)

18,770

(1,320

)

-

22,995

Impairment and other losses

1,500

-

-

-

-

215

1,715

Other items, net(1)

20,251

3,090

17,103

4,860

629

9,924

55,857

Operating income (loss)

$

77,941

$

33,438

$

48,986

$

93,904

$

(24,931

)

$

(96,270

)

$

133,068

(1) See Non-GAAP Financial Measures section above for the definition of Adjusted EBITDA and Other items, net.

SCHEDULE 8
STAGWELL INC.
UNAUDITED RECONCILIATION OF ADJUSTED DILUTED EARNINGS PER SHARE (NON-GAAP MEASURE)
(amounts in thousands, except per share amounts)

For the Three Months Ended December 31, 2025

GAAP

Adjustments

Non-GAAP

Net income attributable to Stagwell Inc. common shareholders and adjusted net income

$

12,660

$

64,037

$

76,697

Diluted - Weighted average number of shares outstanding

258,997

-

258,997

Diluted EPS and Adjusted Diluted EPS (1)

$

0.05

$

0.30

Adjustments to Net income

Amortization

$

38,333

Stock-based compensation

9,953

Deferred acquisition consideration

2,444

Other items, net

16,639

67,369

Adjusted tax expense

(3,332

)

$

64,037

(1) See Non-GAAP Financial Measures section above for the definition of Adjusted Diluted EPS.

SCHEDULE 9
STAGWELL INC.
UNAUDITED RECONCILIATION OF ADJUSTED DILUTED EARNINGS PER SHARE (NON-GAAP MEASURE)
(amounts in thousands, except per share amounts)

For the Year Ended December 31, 2025

GAAP

Adjustments

Non-GAAP

Net income attributable to Stagwell Inc. common shareholders

$

29,101

$

198,129

$

227,230

Net loss attributable to Class C shareholders

(6,637

)

-

(6,637

)

Net income attributable to Stagwell Inc. and Class C shareholders and adjusted net income

$

22,464

$

198,129

$

220,593

Diluted - Weighted average number of common shares outstanding

225,468

-

225,468

Weighted average number of shares of Class C Common Stock outstanding

39,055

-

39,055

Diluted - Weighted average number of shares outstanding

264,523

-

264,523

Diluted EPS and Adjusted Diluted EPS (1)

$

0.08

$

0.83

Adjustments to Net Income

Amortization

$

145,506

Impairment and other losses

466

Stock-based compensation

54,095

Deferred acquisition consideration

(7,467

)

Other items, net

46,792

239,392

Adjusted tax expense

(41,263

)

$

198,129

(1) See Non-GAAP Financial Measures section above for the definition of Adjusted Diluted EPS.

SCHEDULE 10
STAGWELL INC.
UNAUDITED RECONCILIATION OF ADJUSTED DILUTED EARNINGS PER SHARE (NON-GAAP MEASURE)
(amounts in thousands, except per share amounts)

For the Three Months Ended December 31, 2024

GAAP

Adjustments

Non-GAAP

Net income attributable to Stagwell Inc. common shareholders

$

3,235

$

22,778

$

26,013

Net income attributable to Class C shareholders

-

41,549

41,549

Net income attributable to Stagwell Inc. and Class C and adjusted net income

$

3,235

$

64,327

$

67,562

Diluted - Weighted average number of common shares outstanding

115,147

-

115,147

Weighted average number of shares of Class C Common Stock outstanding

-

151,649

151,649

Diluted - Weighted average number of shares outstanding

115,147

151,649

266,796

Diluted EPS and Adjusted Diluted EPS (1)

$

0.03

$

0.25

Adjustments to Net income

Amortization

$

30,572

Stock-based compensation

13,235

Deferred acquisition consideration

15,045

Other items, net

14,799

73,651

Adjusted tax expense

(20,618

)

53,033

Net income attributable to Class C shareholders

11,294

$

64,327

Allocation of adjustments to Net income

Net income attributable to Stagwell Inc. common shareholders

$

22,778

Net income attributable to Class C shareholders - add-backs

30,255

Net income attributable to Class C shareholders

11,294

41,549

$

64,327

(1) See Non-GAAP Financial Measures section above for the definition of Adjusted Diluted EPS.

SCHEDULE 11
STAGWELL INC.
UNAUDITED RECONCILIATION OF ADJUSTED DILUTED EARNINGS PER SHARE (NON-GAAP MEASURE)
(amounts in thousands, except per share amounts)

For the Year Ended December 31, 2024

GAAP

Adjustments

Non-GAAP

Net income attributable to Stagwell Inc. common shareholders

$

2,259

$

82,506

$

84,765

Net income attributable to Class C shareholders

-

126,735

126,735

Net income attributable to Stagwell Inc. and Class C shareholders and adjusted net income

$

2,259

$

209,241

$

211,500

Diluted - Weighted average number of common shares outstanding

115,752

-

115,752

Weighted average number of shares of Class C Common Stock outstanding

-

151,649

151,649

Diluted - Weighted average number of shares outstanding

115,752

151,649

267,401

Diluted EPS and Adjusted Diluted EPS (1)

$

0.02

$

0.79

Adjustments to Net income

Amortization

$

122,442

Impairment and other losses

1,715

Stock-based compensation

52,161

Deferred acquisition consideration

22,995

Other items, net

55,857

255,170

Adjusted tax expense

(63,073

)

192,097

Net income attributable to Class C shareholders

17,144

$

209,241

Allocation of adjustments to Net income

Net income attributable to Stagwell Inc. common shareholders

$

82,506

Net income attributable to Class C shareholders - add-backs

109,591

Net income attributable to Class C shareholders

17,144

126,735

$

209,241

(1) See Non-GAAP Financial Measures section above for the definition of Adjusted Diluted EPS.

SCHEDULE 12
STAGWELL INC.
UNAUDITED CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS
(amounts in thousands)

December 31, 2025

December 31, 2024

ASSETS

Current Assets

Cash and cash equivalents

$

104,537

$

131,339

Accounts receivable, net

735,752

716,415

Expenditures billable to clients

164,694

173,194

Other current assets

157,309

114,200

Total Current Assets

1,162,292

1,135,148

Fixed assets, net

73,081

72,706

Right-of-use assets - operating leases

213,576

219,400

Goodwill

1,595,238

1,554,146

Other intangible assets, net

834,248

836,783

Deferred tax assets

281,057

46,926

Other assets

55,055

43,112

Total Assets

$

4,214,547

$

3,908,221

LIABILITIES, REDEEMABLE NONCONTROLLING INTERESTS ("RNCI"), AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY

Current Liabilities

Accounts payable

$

548,320

$

449,347

Accrued media

239,490

245,883

Accruals and other liabilities

291,554

265,356

Advance billings

329,815

294,609

Current portion of lease liabilities - operating leases

55,386

60,195

Current portion of deferred acquisition consideration

15,446

51,906

Total Current Liabilities

1,480,011

1,367,296

Long-term debt

1,326,013

1,353,624

Long-term portion of deferred acquisition consideration

24,598

50,209

Long-term lease liabilities - operating leases

224,397

245,397

Deferred tax liabilities

54,726

47,239

Long-term tax receivable agreement liability

252,390

25,493

Other liabilities

51,077

33,646

Total Liabilities

3,413,212

3,122,904

Redeemable Noncontrolling Interests

24,968

8,412

Commitments, Contingencies and Guarantees

Shareholders' Equity

Common shares - Class A

252

115

Common shares - Class C

-

2

Paid-in capital

744,463

343,647

Retained earnings

32,930

11,740

Accumulated other comprehensive loss

(19,252

)

(23,773

)

Stagwell Inc. Shareholders' Equity

758,393

331,731

Noncontrolling interests

17,974

445,174

Total Shareholders' Equity

776,367

776,905

Total Liabilities, Redeemable Noncontrolling Interests and Shareholders' Equity

$

4,214,547

$

3,908,221

SCHEDULE 13
STAGWELL INC.
UNAUDITED SUMMARY CASH FLOW DATA
(amounts in thousands)

Years Ended December 31,

2025

2024

Cash flows from operating activities:

Net income

$

30,626

$

25,044

Adjustments to reconcile net income to cash provided by operating activities:

Stock-based compensation

54,095

52,161

Depreciation and amortization

171,249

151,652

Amortization of right-of-use lease assets and lease liability interest

67,495

75,117

Impairment and other (gains) losses

(3,116

)

1,715

Deferred income taxes

10,439

(10,686

)

Adjustment to deferred acquisition consideration

(7,467

)

23,005

Loss (gain) on sale of business

2,245

-

Bargain purchase gain

(9,937

)

-

Other, net

7,519

7,622

Changes in working capital:

Accounts receivable

28,787

8,465

Expenditures billable to clients

12,012

(54,350

)

Other current assets

(51,534

)

(6,200

)

Accounts payable

73,573

24,438

Accrued expenses and other liabilities

(42,244

)

(28,658

)

Advance billings

25,574

(22,651

)

Current portion of lease liabilities - operating leases

(76,465

)

(83,905

)

Deferred acquisition related payments

(1,823

)

(19,910

)

Net cash provided by operating activities

291,028

142,859

Cash flows from investing activities:

Capitalized software

(67,489

)

(35,094

)

Capital expenditures

(43,741

)

(18,912

)

Acquisitions, net of cash acquired

(6,179

)

(103,254

)

Proceeds from sale of business, net

10,850

-

Other

(7,119

)

(5,212

)

Net cash used in investing activities

(113,678

)

(162,472

)

Cash flows from financing activities:

Repayment of borrowings under revolving credit facility

(2,026,000

)

(1,755,000

)

Proceeds from borrowings under revolving credit facility

1,999,326

1,960,000

Shares repurchased and cancelled

(134,261

)

(108,249

)

Distributions to noncontrolling interests

(9,662

)

(26,723

)

Payment of deferred consideration

(33,343

)

(29,774

)

Purchase of noncontrolling interest

-

(3,316

)

Debt financing and other costs

(6,077

)

-

Net cash (used in) provided by financing activities

(210,017

)

36,938

Effect of exchange rate changes on cash and cash equivalents

5,865

(5,723

)

Net increase (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents

(26,802

)

11,602

Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period

131,339

119,737

Cash and cash equivalents at end of period

$

104,537

$

131,339

SOURCE: Stagwell

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Nio (NYSE: NIO | NIO Price Prediction) and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) both just reported Q3 2025 earnings, and the results could not look more different. Nio is accelerating with a multi-brand push driving volume up sharply. Li Auto is shrinking through a deliberate transition away from the extended-range vehicles that made it famous. Same market, opposite trajectories.

Volume Surge Meets Volume Collapse Nio delivered 87,071 vehicles in Q3, up 40.8% year over year, powered by three brands. The premium NIO badge moved 36,928 units, mass-market ONVO contributed 37,656, and the newly launched FIREFLY added 12,487. CEO William Bin Li called out the ONVO L90 as the top-selling large BEV SUV for three consecutive months.

Li Auto delivered 93,211 units, down 39% year over year. A recall on the Li MEGA MPV dragged gross margin down by roughly 4.3 percentage points, turning what would have been a 20%-plus margin quarter into a 16.3% reported gross margin. Revenue fell 36.2% to $3.96 billion. The numbers look bad, but context matters.

Metric Nio Q3 2025 Li Auto Q3 2025 Revenue $3.06B (+16.7% YoY) $3.96B (-36.2% YoY) Deliveries 87,071 (+40.8%) 93,211 (-39.0%) Gross Margin 13.9% 16.3% (adj. 20.4%) Net Loss -$488.9M -$90.3M Cash $5.1B $7.39B One Is Spreading Out. The Other Is Rebuilding From the Core. Nio’s strategy is horizontal expansion: three brands, three price tiers, one battery-swap infrastructure underneath all of it. The risk is execution complexity. Running three brands while burning nearly $489 million in a single quarter demands capital discipline. Nio’s Q4 guidance calls for 120,000 to 125,000 deliveries, up 65% to 72% year over year, which would be a new quarterly record. The ambition is real. So is the cash burn.

Li Auto is going vertical on technology. The VLA Driver autonomous driving model hit a 91% monthly usage rate in October, a strong adoption figure for any in-car AI system. Combined orders for the Li i8 and Li i6 BEV SUVs exceeded 100,000. Li Auto is betting that when this BEV transition completes, it emerges with better technology and stronger margins than rivals who never had the EREV foundation to fund the pivot.

What the Next Two Quarters Will Reveal For Nio, the Q4 delivery ramp is the key story. Can supply chain partners support 120,000-plus units while maintaining the 13.9% gross margin gross margin Nio just achieved, its highest in three years? Any slippage on either front resets the narrative fast.

For Li Auto, BEV order conversion rates are what matter. Orders exceeding 100,000 combined is encouraging, but Q4 guidance still calls for 100,000 to 110,000 deliveries, down 31% to 37% year over year. The transition pain is not over.

Two Very Different Bets Nio at $4.94 per share is a volume story with a liquidity asterisk. Li Auto at $17.83 is a transition story with a stronger cash cushion and a real AI differentiation angle. Li Auto’s $7.39 billion cash position and improving BEV pipeline provide a larger financial buffer as the BEV transition continues through 2026. Both companies face meaningful execution risk in the quarters ahead.

United Natural Foods swung to a second-quarter profit and boosted its fiscal-year profitability guidance, but lowered its sales outlook.

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General Motors (NYSE:GM) is trading at $73.05 on Monday, down 10% year-to-date, and the number driving market mood has nothing to do with truck margins. A post from r/wallstreetbets titled “Just as GM, Ford, and take massive EV write-offs, oil hits $100/barrel” captured the tension. GM just wrote off billions to exit EV capacity right as oil makes EVs look like the obvious long-term play again.

Just as GM, Ford and take massive EV write-offs, oil hits $100/barrel
by u/superPlasticized in wallstreetbets As the post title puts it: “Just as GM, Ford and take massive EV write-offs, oil hits $100/barrel” — a pointed summary of the strategic whipsaw both automakers now face.

Record Truck Margins Are Not Moving the Stock The underlying business is genuinely strong as GM’s Q4 EBIT-adjusted came in at $2.8 billion, up 13.3% year-over-year, with a Q4 EBIT margin expanding to 6.1% from 5.3%. North American plants ran at 113.7% two-shift utilization, and GM holds a 17.2% share of the U.S. truck market. Management raised the dividend 20% to $0.18 per share and authorized a new $6 billion buyback. The 2026 guidance calls for adjusted EPS of $11 to $13.

Retail investors are weighing that against three things harder to dismiss:

GM took more than $7.2 billion in special charges in Q4 alone, tied to EV capacity realignment, producing a net loss of $3.3 billion for the quarter despite the adjusted earnings beat. Full-year 2025 net income fell 55.11% year-over-year to $2.70 billion, even as operating cash flow rose sharply, making reported earnings hard to trust at face value. Fleet sales as a share of total volume climbed to 19.6% from 16.9%, a lower-margin mix shift that quietly pressures the profitability story. Where GM and Ford’s EV Bets Leave Investors Ford (NYSE:F) faces a similar bind, down 8.6% year-to-date at $11.98 after absorbing $10.7 billion in Model e asset impairments in Q4 and projecting another $4 to $4.5 billion in EV losses for 2026. Despite achieving its best U.S. market share in six years, Ford trades at a forward sales multiple of 0.28 versus the industry’s 3.29. Both companies are generating real cash and getting almost no credit for it. With EV incentives gone, the market is still waiting for a coherent answer on what the transition actually costs.

Launched on October 26, 2005, the Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF (PPA - Free Report) is a passively managed exchange traded fund designed to provide a broad exposure to the Industrials - Aerospace & Defense segment of the equity market.

While an excellent vehicle for long term investors, passively managed ETFs are a popular choice among institutional and retail investors due to their low costs, transparency, flexibility, and tax efficiency.

Investor-friendly, sector ETFs provide many options to gain low risk and diversified exposure to a broad group of companies in particular sectors. Industrials - Aerospace & Defense is one of the 16 broad Zacks sectors within the Zacks Industry classification. It is currently ranked 3, placing it in top 19%.

Index DetailsThe fund is sponsored by Invesco. It has amassed assets over $8.29 billion, making it one of the largest ETFs attempting to match the performance of the Industrials - Aerospace & Defense segment of the equity market. PPA seeks to match the performance of the SPADE Defense Index before fees and expenses.

The SPADE Defense Index is comprised of approximately 50 U.S. companies whose shares are listed on a U.S. Exchange. These are companies that are principally engaged in the research, development, manufacture, operation and support of defense, military, homeland security and space operations.

CostsCost is an important factor in selecting the right ETF, and cheaper funds can significantly outperform their more expensive counterparts if all other fundamentals are the same.

Annual operating expenses for this ETF are 0.58%, making it on par with most peer products in the space.

It has a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 0.36%.

Sector Exposure and Top HoldingsETFs offer a diversified exposure and thus minimize single stock risk but it is still important to delve into a fund's holdings before investing. Most ETFs are very transparent products and many disclose their holdings on a daily basis.

This ETF has heaviest allocation in the Industrials sector -- about 93.9% of the portfolio.

Looking at individual holdings, Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT) accounts for about 9% of total assets, followed by Boeing Co/the (BA) and Rtx Corp (RTX).

The top 10 holdings account for about 61.39% of total assets under management.

Performance and RiskYear-to-date, the Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF has added about 15.59% so far, and it's up approximately 56.94% over the last 12 months (as of 03/10/2026). PPA has traded between $105.2 and $185.59 in this past 52-week period.

The ETF has a beta of 0.76 and standard deviation of 16.88% for the trailing three-year period, making it a medium risk choice in the space. With about 63 holdings, it effectively diversifies company-specific risk.

AlternativesInvesco Aerospace & Defense ETF carries a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 (Hold), which is based on expected asset class return, expense ratio, and momentum, among other factors. Thus, PPA is a good option for those seeking exposure to the Industrials ETFs area of the market. Investors might also want to consider some other ETF options in the space.

Global X Defense Tech ETF (SHLD) tracks GLOBAL X DEFENSE TECH INDEX and the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) tracks Dow Jones U.S. Select Aerospace & Defense Index. Global X Defense Tech ETF has $8.08 billion in assets, iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF has $16.15 billion. SHLD has an expense ratio of 0.5%, and ITA charges 0.38%.

Bottom LineTo learn more about this product and other ETFs, screen for products that match your investment objectives and read articles on latest developments in the ETF investing universe, please visit Zacks ETF Center.

Looking for broad exposure to the Large Cap Blend segment of the US equity market? You should consider the ProShares S&P 500 Ex-Technology ETF (SPXT - Free Report) , a passively managed exchange traded fund launched on September 22, 2015.

The fund is sponsored by Proshares. It has amassed assets over $268.38 million, making it one of the average sized ETFs attempting to match the Large Cap Blend segment of the US equity market.

Why Large Cap BlendCompanies that fall in the large cap category tend to have a market capitalization above $10 billion. Considered a more stable option, large cap companies boast more predictable cash flows and are less volatile than their mid and small cap counterparts.

Blend ETFs are aptly named, since they tend to hold a mix of growth and value stocks, as well as show characteristics of both kinds of equities.

CostsCost is an important factor in selecting the right ETF, and cheaper funds can significantly outperform their more expensive counterparts if all other fundamentals are the same.

Annual operating expenses for this ETF are 0.09%, making it one of the least expensive products in the space.

It has a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 1.37%.

Sector Exposure and Top HoldingsEven though ETFs offer diversified exposure which minimizes single stock risk, it is still important to look into a fund's holdings before investing. Luckily, most ETFs are very transparent products that disclose their holdings on a daily basis.

This ETF has heaviest allocation to the Financials sector -- about 18.7% of the portfolio. Telecom and Consumer Discretionary round out the top three.

Looking at individual holdings, Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) accounts for about 5.15% of total assets, followed by Alphabet Inc-Cl A (GOOGL) and Alphabet Inc-Cl C (GOOG).

The top 10 holdings account for about 28.44% of total assets under management.

Performance and RiskSPXT seeks to match the performance of the S&P 500 Ex-Information Technology & Telecommunication Services Index before fees and expenses. The S&P 500 Ex-Information Technology Index provide exposure to the companies of the S&P 500 with the exception of those companies included in the information technology sector.

The ETF has added about 1.11% so far this year and is up about 14.85% in the last one year (as of 03/10/2026). In the past 52-week period, it has traded between $81.62 and $107.90.

The ETF has a beta of 0.89 and standard deviation of 12.63% for the trailing three-year period, making it a medium risk choice in the space. With about 433 holdings, it effectively diversifies company-specific risk.

AlternativesProShares S&P 500 Ex-Technology ETF holds a Zacks ETF Rank of 2 (Buy), which is based on expected asset class return, expense ratio, and momentum, among other factors. Because of this, SPXT is an outstanding option for investors seeking exposure to the Style Box - Large Cap Blend segment of the market. There are other additional ETFs in the space that investors could consider as well.

The iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) and the Vanguard 500 Index Fund ETF Shares (VOO) track a similar index. While iShares Core S&P 500 ETF has $737.81 billion in assets, Vanguard 500 Index Fund ETF Shares has $861.52 billion. IVV has an expense ratio of 0.03% and VOO charges 0.03%.

Bottom-LineRetail and institutional investors increasingly turn to passively managed ETFs because they offer low costs, transparency, flexibility, and tax efficiency; these kind of funds are also excellent vehicles for long term investors.

To learn more about this product and other ETFs, screen for products that match your investment objectives and read articles on latest developments in the ETF investing universe, please visit Zacks ETF Center.

Launched on 06/16/2006, the WisdomTree Japan SmallCap Dividend ETF (DFJ - Free Report) is a smart beta exchange traded fund offering broad exposure to the Asia-Pacific (Developed) ETFs category of the market.

What Are Smart Beta ETFs?The ETF industry has long been dominated by products based on market cap weighted indexes, a strategy created to reflect the market or a particular market segment.

Market cap weighted indexes work great for investors who believe in market efficiency. They provide a low-cost, convenient and transparent way of replicating market returns.

On the other hand, some investors who believe that it is possible to beat the market by superior stock selection opt to invest in another class of funds that track non-cap weighted strategies--popularly known as smart beta.

These indexes attempt to select stocks that have better chances of risk-return performance, based on certain fundamental characteristics or a combination of such characteristics.

Even though this space provides many choices to investors--think one of the simplest methodologies like equal-weighting and more complicated ones like fundamental and volatility/momentum based weighting--not all have been able to deliver first-rate results.

Fund Sponsor & IndexThe fund is managed by Wisdomtree. DFJ has been able to amass assets over $427.66 million, making it one of the average sized ETFs in the Asia-Pacific (Developed) ETFs. Before fees and expenses, DFJ seeks to match the performance of the WisdomTree Japan SmallCap Dividend Index.

The WisdomTree Japan SmallCap Dividend Index is comprised of dividend-paying small capitalization companies in Japan.

Cost & Other ExpensesCost is an important factor in selecting the right ETF, and cheaper funds can significantly outperform their more expensive cousins if all other fundamentals are the same.

With on par with most peer products in the space, this ETF has annual operating expenses of 0.58%.

DFJ's 12-month trailing dividend yield is 2.51%.

Sector Exposure and Top HoldingsEven though ETFs offer diversified exposure which minimizes single stock risk, it is still important to look into a fund's holdings before investing. Luckily, most ETFs are very transparent products that disclose their holdings on a daily basis.

When you look at individual holdings, Chugin Financial Group Incaccounts for about 0.68% of the fund's total assets, followed by Daishi Hokuetsu Financial Grp and Nsk Ltd.

The top 10 holdings account for about 5.94% of total assets under management.

Performance and RiskSo far this year, DFJ return is roughly 6.52%, and was up about 31.13% in the last one year (as of 03/10/2026). During this past 52-week period, the fund has traded between $70.93 and $112.88.

The ETF has a beta of 0.40 and standard deviation of 15.09% for the trailing three-year period, making it a medium risk choice in the space. With about 808 holdings, it effectively diversifies company-specific risk .

AlternativesWisdomTree Japan SmallCap Dividend ETF is an excellent option for investors seeking to outperform the Asia-Pacific (Developed) ETFs segment of the market. There are other ETFs in the space which investors could consider as well.

JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan ETF (BBJP) tracks MORNINGSTAR JAPAN TRGT MRKT EXPOSURE ID and the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) tracks MSCI Japan Index. JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan ETF has $15.29 billion in assets, iShares MSCI Japan ETF has $19.16 billion. BBJP has an expense ratio of 0.19% and EWJ changes 0.49%.

Investors looking for cheaper and lower-risk options should consider traditional market cap weighted ETFs that aim to match the returns of the Asia-Pacific (Developed) ETFs

Bottom LineTo learn more about this product and other ETFs, screen for products that match your investment objectives and read articles on latest developments in the ETF investing universe, please visit Zacks ETF Center.

The Invesco S&P International Developed Quality ETF (IDHQ - Free Report) made its debut on 06/13/2007, and is a smart beta exchange traded fund that provides broad exposure to the Foreign Large Growth ETF category of the market.

What Are Smart Beta ETFs?Market cap weighted indexes were created to reflect the market, or a specific segment of the market, and the ETF industry has traditionally been dominated by products based on this strategy.

Market cap weighted indexes work great for investors who believe in market efficiency. They provide a low-cost, convenient and transparent way of replicating market returns.

There are some investors, though, who think it's possible to beat the market with great stock selection; this group likely invests in another class of funds known as smart beta, which track non-cap weighted strategies.

This kind of index follows this same mindset, as it attempts to pick stocks that have better chances of risk-return performance; non-cap weighted strategies base selection on certain fundamental characteristics, or a mix of such characteristics.

Methodologies like equal-weighting, one of the simplest options out there, fundamental weighting, and volatility/momentum based weighting are all choices offered to investors in this space, but not all of them can deliver superior returns.

Fund Sponsor & IndexThe fund is managed by Invesco, and has been able to amass over $661.7 million, which makes it one of the larger ETFs in the Foreign Large Growth ETF. IDHQ, before fees and expenses, seeks to match the performance of the S&P Quality Developed ex US LargeMidCap Index.

The S&P Quality Developed ex US LargeMidCap Index tracks the performance of stocks in the S&P Developed Ex-US LargeMidCap Index that have the highest quality score, which is calculated based on three fundamental measures, return on equity, accruals ratio and financial leverage ratio.

Cost & Other ExpensesWhen considering an ETF's total return, expense ratios are an important factor. And, cheaper funds can significantly outperform their more expensive cousins in the long term if all other factors remain equal.

With the least expensive product in the space, this ETF has annual operating expenses of 0.29%.

It's 12-month trailing dividend yield comes in at 2.33%.

Sector Exposure and Top HoldingsEven though ETFs offer diversified exposure that minimizes single stock risk, investors should also look at the actual holdings inside the fund. Luckily, most ETFs are very transparent products that disclose their holdings on a daily basis.

When you look at individual holdings, Asml Holding Nv (ASML) accounts for about 5.85% of the fund's total assets, followed by Sk Hynix Inc (Y8085F100) and Roche Holding Ag (ROG).

IDHQ's top 10 holdings account for about 36.26% of its total assets under management.

Performance and RiskThe ETF has added roughly 5.43% so far this year and is up roughly 20.35% in the last one year (as of 03/10/2026). In the past 52-week period, it has traded between $27.24 and $39.84

IDHQ has a beta of 0.87 and standard deviation of 14.75% for the trailing three-year period, which makes the fund a low risk choice in the space. With about 208 holdings, it effectively diversifies company-specific risk .

AlternativesInvesco S&P International Developed Quality ETF is a reasonable option for investors seeking to outperform the Foreign Large Growth ETF segment of the market. However, there are other ETFs in the space which investors could consider.

VictoryShares International Free Cash Flow Growth ETF (GRIN) tracks VICTORY INTL GROWTH FREE CASH FLOW INDEX and the Invesco Dorsey Wright Developed Markets Momentum ETF (PIZ) tracks Dorsey Wright Developed Markets Technical Leaders Index. VictoryShares International Free Cash Flow Growth ETF has $241.58 million in assets, Invesco Dorsey Wright Developed Markets Momentum ETF has $689.23 million. GRIN has an expense ratio of 0.56% and PIZ changes 0.80%.

Investors looking for cheaper and lower-risk options should consider traditional market cap weighted ETFs that aim to match the returns of the Foreign Large Growth ETF

Bottom LineTo learn more about this product and other ETFs, screen for products that match your investment objectives and read articles on latest developments in the ETF investing universe, please visit Zacks ETF Center.

The Schwab Fundamental Emerging Markets Equity ETF (FNDE - Free Report) was launched on 08/13/2013, and is a smart beta exchange traded fund designed to offer broad exposure to the Broad Emerging Market ETFs category of the market.

What Are Smart Beta ETFs?Market cap weighted indexes were created to reflect the market, or a specific segment of the market, and the ETF industry has traditionally been dominated by products based on this strategy.

Market cap weighted indexes work great for investors who believe in market efficiency. They provide a low-cost, convenient and transparent way of replicating market returns.

There are some investors, though, who think it's possible to beat the market with great stock selection; this group likely invests in another class of funds known as smart beta, which track non-cap weighted strategies.

Based on specific fundamental characteristics, or a combination of such, these indexes attempt to pick stocks that have a better chance of risk-return performance.

This area offers many different investment choices, such as simplest equal-weighting, fundamental weighting and volatility/momentum based weighting methodologies; however, not all of these strategies can deliver superior results.

Fund Sponsor & IndexThe fund is sponsored by Charles Schwab. It has amassed assets over $8.96 billion, making it one of the largest ETFs in the Broad Emerging Market ETFs. This particular fund seeks to match the performance of the Russell RAFI Emerging Markets Large Co. Index (Net) before fees and expenses.

The RAFI Fundamental High Liquidity Emerging Markets Index measures the performance of large sized companies, based on their fundamental size and weight, in emerging market countries.

Cost & Other ExpensesExpense ratios are an important factor in the return of an ETF and in the long-term, cheaper funds can significantly outperform their more expensive cousins, other things remaining the same.

Annual operating expenses for FNDE are 0.39%, which makes it on par with most peer products in the space.

The fund has a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 3.93%.

Sector Exposure and Top HoldingsMost ETFs are very transparent products, and disclose their holdings on a daily basis. ETFs also offer diversified exposure, which minimizes single stock risk, though it's still important for investors to research a fund's holdings.

When you look at individual holdings, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturingaccounts for about 5.4% of the fund's total assets, followed by Alibaba Group Holding Ltd and Vale Sa (VALE3).

Performance and RiskThe ETF has added roughly 6.52% so far this year and is up about 27.86% in the last one year (as of 03/10/2026). In the past 52-week period, it has traded between $26.66 and $40.88

FNDE has a beta of 0.54 and standard deviation of 15.93% for the trailing three-year period, which makes the fund a medium risk choice in the space. With about 393 holdings, it effectively diversifies company-specific risk .

AlternativesSchwab Fundamental Emerging Markets Equity ETF is a reasonable option for investors seeking to outperform the Broad Emerging Market ETFs segment of the market. However, there are other ETFs in the space which investors could consider.

Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund ETF Shares (VWO) tracks FTSE Emerging Markets All Cap China A Inclusion Index and the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG) tracks MSCI Emerging Markets Investable Market Index. Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund ETF Shares has $112.09 billion in assets, iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF has $139.69 billion. VWO has an expense ratio of 0.06% and IEMG changes 0.09%.

Investors looking for cheaper and lower-risk options should consider traditional market cap weighted ETFs that aim to match the returns of the Broad Emerging Market ETFs

Bottom LineTo learn more about this product and other ETFs, screen for products that match your investment objectives and read articles on latest developments in the ETF investing universe, please visit Zacks ETF Center.

The iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR - Free Report) was launched on May 22, 2000, and is a passively managed exchange traded fund designed to offer broad exposure to the Small Cap Blend segment of the US equity market.

The fund is sponsored by Blackrock. It has amassed assets over $92.81 billion, making it the largest ETF attempting to match the Small Cap Blend segment of the US equity market.

Why Small Cap BlendSitting at a market capitalization below $2 billion, small cap companies tend to be high-potential stocks compared to its large and mid cap counterparts, but come with higher risk.

Typically holding a combination of both growth and value stocks, blend ETFs also demonstrate qualities seen in value and growth investments.

CostsCost is an important factor in selecting the right ETF, and cheaper funds can significantly outperform their more expensive counterparts if all other fundamentals are the same.

Annual operating expenses for this ETF are 0.06%, making it one of the least expensive products in the space.

It has a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 1.38%.

Sector Exposure and Top HoldingsWhile ETFs offer diversified exposure, which minimizes single stock risk, a deep look into a fund's holdings is a valuable exercise. And, most ETFs are very transparent products that disclose their holdings on a daily basis.

This ETF has heaviest allocation to the Industrials sector -- about 16.9% of the portfolio. Financials and Consumer Discretionary round out the top three.

Looking at individual holdings, Blk Csh Fnd Treasury Sl Agency (XTSLA) accounts for about 1.24% of total assets, followed by Solstice Advanced Materials Inc (SOLS) and Interdigital Inc (IDCC).

Performance and RiskIJR seeks to match the performance of the S&P SmallCap 600 Index before fees and expenses. The S&P SmallCap 600 Index measures the performance of the small capitalization sector of the U.S. equity market.

The ETF has added about 4.32% so far this year and was up about 17.89% in the last one year (as of 03/10/2026). In the past 52-week period, it has traded between $90.56 and $132.07.

The ETF has a beta of 1.03 and standard deviation of 20.4% for the trailing three-year period, making it a medium risk choice in the space. With about 659 holdings, it effectively diversifies company-specific risk.

AlternativesiShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF holds a Zacks ETF Rank of 2 (Buy), which is based on expected asset class return, expense ratio, and momentum, among other factors. Because of this, IJR is an excellent option for investors seeking exposure to the Style Box - Small Cap Blend segment of the market. There are other additional ETFs in the space that investors could consider as well.

The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares (VB) track a similar index. While iShares Russell 2000 ETF has $71.56 billion in assets, Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares has $72.04 billion. IWM has an expense ratio of 0.19% and VB charges 0.03%.

Bottom-LineAn increasingly popular option among retail and institutional investors, passively managed ETFs offer low costs, transparency, flexibility, and tax efficiency; they are also excellent vehicles for long term investors.

To learn more about this product and other ETFs, screen for products that match your investment objectives and read articles on latest developments in the ETF investing universe, please visit Zacks ETF Center.

Launched on June 19, 2006, the State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT - Free Report) is a passively managed exchange traded fund designed to provide a broad exposure to the Consumer Discretionary - Retail segment of the equity market.

An increasingly popular option among retail and institutional investors, passively managed ETFs offer low costs, transparency, flexibility, and tax efficiency; they are also excellent vehicles for long term investors.

Sector ETFs also provide investors access to a broad group of companies in particular sectors that offer low risk and diversified exposure. Consumer Discretionary - Retail is one of the 16 broad Zacks sectors within the Zacks Industry classification. It is currently ranked 7, placing it in top 44%.

Index DetailsThe fund is sponsored by State Street Investment Management. It has amassed assets over $633.42 million, making it one of the larger ETFs attempting to match the performance of the Consumer Discretionary - Retail segment of the equity market. XRT seeks to match the performance of the S&P Retail Select Industry Index before fees and expenses.

The S&P Retail Select Industry Index represents the retail sub-industry portion of the S&P TMI. The S&P TMI tracks all the U.S. common stocks listed on the NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ National Market and NASDAQ Small Cap exchanges. The Retail Index is a modified equal weight index.

CostsWhen considering an ETF's total return, expense ratios are an important factor, and cheaper funds can significantly outperform their more expensive counterparts in the long term if all other factors remain equal.

Annual operating expenses for this ETF are 0.35%, making it one of the cheaper products in the space.

It has a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 0.8%.

Sector Exposure and Top HoldingsIt is important to delve into an ETF's holdings before investing despite the many upsides to these kinds of funds like diversified exposure, which minimizes single stock risk. And, most ETFs are very transparent products that disclose their holdings on a daily basis.

This ETF has heaviest allocation in the Consumer Discretionary sector -- about 76.6% of the portfolio, followed by Consumer Staples.

Looking at individual holdings, Camping World Holdings Inc A (CWH) accounts for about 1.79% of total assets, followed by Pricesmart Inc (PSMT) and Casey S General Stores Inc (CASY).

The top 10 holdings account for about 16.85% of total assets under management.

Performance and RiskYear-to-date, the State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF has lost about 2.85% so far, and is up about 16.42% over the last 12 months (as of 03/10/2026). XRT has traded between $62.11 and $90.88 in this past 52-week period.

The ETF has a beta of 1.26 and standard deviation of 22.41% for the trailing three-year period, making it a medium risk choice in the space. With about 75 holdings, it effectively diversifies company-specific risk.

AlternativesState Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF carries a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 (Hold), which is based on expected asset class return, expense ratio, and momentum, among other factors. Thus, XRT is a good option for those seeking exposure to the Consumer Discretionary ETFs area of the market. Investors might also want to consider some other ETF options in the space.

Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY) tracks EQM Online Retail Index and the VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) tracks MVIS US Listed Retail 25 Index. Amplify Online Retail ETF has $127.84 million in assets, VanEck Retail ETF has $263.18 million. IBUY has an expense ratio of 0.65%, and RTH charges 0.35%.

Bottom LineTo learn more about this product and other ETFs, screen for products that match your investment objectives and read articles on latest developments in the ETF investing universe, please visit Zacks ETF Center.

Luisa Crawford Mar 10, 2026 10:10

Polygon (MATIC) trades at $0.38 with neutral RSI signaling potential 18-39% upside to $0.45-$0.52 range, though bearish MACD warns of near-term headwinds for the Layer-2 token.

Polygon (MATIC) finds itself at a critical juncture as the token trades at $0.38 on March 10, 2026. Despite facing bearish momentum indicators, technical analysis suggests significant upside potential if key resistance levels break in the coming weeks. This comprehensive MATIC price prediction examines the latest analyst forecasts and technical data to provide actionable insights for traders.

MATIC Price Prediction Summary • Short-term target (1 week): $0.39-$0.42 • Medium-term forecast (1 month): $0.45-$0.52 range
• Bullish breakout level: $0.43 (SMA 20 resistance) • Critical support: $0.31 (Bollinger lower band)

What Crypto Analysts Are Saying About Polygon Recent analyst coverage has been notably optimistic about Polygon's technical setup despite current market conditions. Zach Anderson provided consistent analysis throughout early March, stating on March 7, 2026: "Polygon (MATIC) trades at $0.38 with neutral RSI signaling potential 18-39% upside to $0.45-$0.52 range if key resistance levels break in coming weeks."

Rebeca Moen echoed similar sentiment on March 8, noting: "Polygon (MATIC) shows neutral RSI at 38.00 with potential upside to $0.45-$0.52 range if key resistance breaks, though bearish MACD signals caution for short-term traders."

The consensus among technical analysts points to a Polygon forecast targeting the $0.45-$0.52 range, representing potential gains of 18-37% from current levels. However, analysts emphasize the importance of breaking key resistance levels for this MATIC price prediction to materialize.

MATIC Technical Analysis Breakdown Polygon's current technical picture presents a mixed but cautiously optimistic outlook. The RSI reading of 38.00 sits in neutral territory, neither overbought nor oversold, providing room for upward movement. This neutral RSI supports the analyst projections for higher prices ahead.

The MACD indicator tells a more cautious story, with the histogram at -0.0000 suggesting bearish momentum in the near term. The MACD line (-0.0246) remains below the signal line (-0.0246), indicating sellers still maintain short-term control.

Bollinger Bands analysis reveals MATIC trading at 0.29 of the band width, closer to the lower band ($0.31) than the upper band ($0.56). This positioning suggests the token has room to move higher within its current volatility range, with the middle band at $0.43 serving as the first major resistance.

Moving averages paint a clear resistance picture above current prices. The 7-day SMA at $0.37 provides immediate support, while the 20-day SMA at $0.43 represents the first significant hurdle for any rally. The 50-day SMA at $0.45 aligns perfectly with analyst targets, while the 200-day SMA at $0.69 remains a distant long-term objective.

Polygon Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case Bullish Scenario In the optimistic case for this MATIC price prediction, Polygon could see a structured rally through multiple resistance levels. The first target sits at the 20-day SMA of $0.43, requiring a 13% move from current levels. Breaking this level would confirm the bullish thesis and open the path to the analyst-predicted $0.45-$0.52 range.

The $0.45 level, coinciding with the 50-day SMA, represents the lower end of the target range and would deliver an 18% gain. Full realization of the Polygon forecast at $0.52 would require breaking through the upper Bollinger Band resistance at $0.56, potentially delivering a 37% return.

Technical confirmation for the bullish case would include RSI breaking above 50, MACD turning positive, and sustained volume above the recent average of $1.07 million on Binance.

Bearish Scenario The bear case for MATIC centers around the current bearish MACD momentum and the token's position below all major moving averages except the 7-day SMA. A break below the immediate support at $0.37 could trigger further selling toward the Bollinger lower band at $0.31, representing an 18% decline.

Extended weakness could see MATIC test psychological support levels around $0.30, with the next significant support zone likely emerging around $0.25-$0.28 based on previous trading ranges.

Risk factors include broader crypto market weakness, Ethereum Layer-2 competition intensifying, and failure to break the crucial $0.43 resistance level that has capped recent rallies.

Should You Buy MATIC? Entry Strategy For traders considering MATIC positions based on this price prediction, a staged approach appears most prudent. Conservative buyers might wait for a break and hold above the $0.43 resistance level before entering, as this would confirm the bullish technical setup.

More aggressive traders could consider accumulating in the current $0.37-$0.39 range, using the 7-day SMA as a dynamic stop-loss level. This strategy offers better risk-reward ratios but requires tolerance for potential near-term volatility.

Position sizing should account for the 18% downside risk to the $0.31 support level. A stop-loss below $0.36 would limit losses to approximately 5% while maintaining exposure to the potential 18-37% upside captured in analyst targets.

Conclusion This MATIC price prediction suggests Polygon remains positioned for potential gains despite current bearish momentum indicators. The convergence of analyst targets around $0.45-$0.52 provides a clear roadmap for the next major move, though breaking the $0.43 resistance remains crucial for validation.

The neutral RSI and proximity to Bollinger Band support suggest favorable risk-reward dynamics for patient investors. However, the bearish MACD warns against aggressive positioning without proper risk management.

Cryptocurrency price predictions involve significant risk and uncertainty. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.

Image source: Shutterstock

matic price analysis matic price prediction

Journalist

Posted: March 10, 2026

U.S. Spot Solana ETFs are close to hitting $1 billion in inflows, or 2% of their market cap, having debuted last October.

That’s only 18 weeks taken to climb to its current levels.  

In contrast, Brian Rudick, chief strategy officer at Solana treasury firm Upexi, noted that it took U.S. Spot BTC ETFs 55 weeks to reach 2% of their market cap.

In other words, SOL has seen relatively high institutional demand despite a bear market.  

Source: X/Upexi 

Worth pointing out, however, that BTC ETF flows have mixed institutional players, with hedge funds hunting for basis trade (yield) as major drivers of outflows during risk-off sentiment. 

So, how does that apply to SOL ETFs and the altcoin’s price? 

Institutional bet on SOL: Conviction or speculation? According to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart, basis trade hunting or institutional speculation is not particularly prevalent across SOL ETFs. 

Unlike last July, when SOL basis trade was a whopping 23%, the yield shrank after the products debuted in October. In fact, the yield dropped to -6% in early 2026, yet overall ETF inflows rose to nearly $1 billion. 

Source: Bloomberg

Seyffar added, 

“The basis of Solana has been extremely low so far in 2026. This means the Solana basis trade is likely not contributing to the inflows.”

In fact, according to 13F filings with the SEC, institutions controlled 50% of assets under management (AUM), underscoring the massive interest in a young product, Seyffart highlighted. 

Impact on SOL’s price That said, SOL’s price has been in lockstep with broader market sentiment despite the impressive ETF inflows. Even so, Bitwise found that Spot ETF flows now account for 25% of SOL’s price variance. 

Source: Bitwise 

Put differently, a quarter of SOL’s price moves are now directly determined by ETF flows.

In the past three days, SOL ETFs have seen three consecutive days of outflows totalling $16 million. Over the same period, the altcoin’s price dropped from $92 to $80. 

However, it had recovered to $87 at press time, marking an 8% rally as BTC reclaimed $70K while oil prices retraced its recent gains. 

But most importantly, SOL’s Choppiness Index was flashing a potential breakout signal. The index value was above 60, a level that marked bullish or bearish breakouts in the past (yellow lines). 

If the RSI reclaims 50 and advances northwards alongside renewed ETF inflows, SOL could front a bullish breakout and eye $100. 

Conversely, another fakeout and weak institutional flows could drag it below $80. 

Source: SOL/USDT, TradingView 

Final Summary  SOL ETFs reached $1 billion in 18 weeks, or 2% of market cap, compared to BTC ETFs, which took 55 weeks to hit the same milestone.  The choppiness index suggested SOL could be nearing a range breakout, but it was unclear whether $100 or $78 was the next target. 

$50.8B in XRP Now in Unrealized Loss as 36.8B Tokens Sit UnderwaterA large share of the XRP market is now underwater, signaling mounting pressure on investors as the cryptocurrency trades below many holders’ entry prices. 

Recent on-chain data from Glassnode shows that billions of XRP tokens are currently held at a loss, underscoring how recent market volatility has pushed a significant portion of the supply into negative territory.

According to analytics firm Glassnode, roughly 36.8 billion XRP are currently “underwater,” meaning they were bought at prices higher than the token’s current market value. 

In dollar terms, these unrealized losses amount to about $50.8 billion, highlighting the magnitude of the drawdown facing XRP holders.

The pressure reflects a broader weakness across the altcoin market. Nearly 4 in 10 altcoins are trading close to their all-time lows, marking a downturn even deeper than the post-FTX collapse. XRP itself is down around 61.4% from its peak, underscoring the scale of the market correction and the challenges still facing many investors.

Unrealized losses are “paper losses,” meaning investors have not sold their holdings but would realize a loss if they sold at current prices.

While such losses are common during crypto market downturns, the sheer scale suggests a large share of investors bought XRP at significantly higher price levels, leaving many positions currently underwater.

XRP Holders Under Pressure as Massive Supply Remains at a LossPer CoinCodex data, XRP is trading at $1.39, leaving a large portion of previously purchased coins underwater. This indicates many investors bought at higher levels, creating clusters of unrealized losses. 

Source: CoinCodexSuch conditions can reduce immediate selling, as holders await a recovery, but prolonged losses may test confidence and increase the risk of capitulation. 

Historically, crypto markets often face phases where a significant share of supply sits at a loss after sharp rallies and corrections, making long-term holder behavior a key market indicator. The question now: is XRP in a high-stakes distribution battle, or merely repositioning for its next move?

For XRP, the coming weeks could be decisive. A rebound and reclaim of higher prices would gradually move billions of tokens back into profit, boosting market sentiment and restoring confidence among holders who bought at elevated levels.

Until then, on-chain data underscores the immense pressure facing investors: tens of billions of XRP remain underwater, with over $50 billion in unrealized losses. The market stays fragile as traders watch closely for signs of recovery or a deeper decline.

ConclusionXRP faces a pivotal moment as over $50 billion in tokens remain underwater. Historically, such conditions signal consolidation, testing long-term holder conviction. 

A return of buying momentum could push sidelined supply back into profit, boosting market sentiment, but continued weakness risks prolonging pressure on prices. XRP’s next move hinges on whether demand can absorb the massive loss-laden supply.

Jessie A Ellis Mar 10, 2026 10:22

Avalanche (AVAX) trades at $9.53 with analysts targeting $12-15 within 4-6 weeks. Technical indicators show neutral RSI at 53.02 but AVAX faces key resistance at $9.75.

Avalanche (AVAX) has shown modest recovery momentum, trading at $9.53 with a 4.72% gain in the past 24 hours. As crypto markets navigate volatile conditions, technical analysis and recent analyst forecasts provide insights into where AVAX might head next.

AVAX Price Prediction Summary • Short-term target (1 week): $10.50-11.00
• Medium-term forecast (1 month): $12.00-15.00 range
• Bullish breakout level: $9.75 (immediate resistance) • Critical support: $8.80

What Crypto Analysts Are Saying About Avalanche Recent analyst coverage has painted a cautiously optimistic picture for AVAX. Alvin Lang noted on March 3, 2026, that "Avalanche (AVAX) trades at $9.13 with analysts targeting $10.50-$12.00 by March end," suggesting immediate upside potential of 10-26% from current levels.

More bullish is Caroline Bishop, who stated on March 2, 2026: "AVAX trades at $8.88 with neutral RSI and analyst targets of $12-15 within 4-6 weeks. Key resistance at $9.39 must break for bullish momentum to resume." With AVAX already breaking above the $9.39 level Bishop identified, the path toward her $12-15 target range appears more feasible.

According to on-chain data from major analytics platforms, Avalanche's network fundamentals remain solid despite the prolonged bear market, supporting these medium-term bullish forecasts.

AVAX Technical Analysis Breakdown The current technical picture for AVAX presents a mixed but increasingly bullish setup:

RSI Analysis: At 53.02, Avalanche's RSI sits in neutral territory, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. This provides room for further upside movement without immediate reversal risk.

MACD Momentum: The MACD histogram at 0.0000 shows bearish momentum has stalled, though a clear bullish crossover hasn't yet materialized. The MACD line at -0.1333 remains below the signal line, suggesting caution for short-term traders.

Bollinger Bands: AVAX's position at 0.85 within the Bollinger Bands indicates the price is approaching the upper band resistance at $9.72. This proximity to the upper band suggests either a breakout attempt or potential short-term pullback.

Moving Average Structure: AVAX trades above both the 7-day SMA ($9.20) and 20-day SMA ($9.07), confirming the recent bullish momentum. However, the price remains well below the 200-day SMA at $17.14, highlighting the longer-term downtrend that still needs to be reversed.

Avalanche Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case Bullish Scenario If AVAX breaks above the immediate resistance at $9.75, the path opens toward stronger resistance at $9.96. A sustained break above $10.00 would likely trigger the first wave of the Avalanche forecast toward the $10.50-12.00 range identified by analysts.

The ultimate bullish target of $12-15, as projected by Caroline Bishop, would require AVAX to overcome multiple resistance levels and establish a clear uptrend above the 50-day moving average at $9.76. This scenario gains credibility if Bitcoin and broader crypto markets maintain supportive momentum.

Bearish Scenario Should AVAX fail to hold above the pivot point at $9.38, immediate support lies at $9.17. A break below this level could trigger selling pressure toward the strong support zone at $8.80.

The most bearish scenario would see AVAX testing the lower Bollinger Band at $8.42, representing a roughly 12% decline from current levels. This downside risk appears limited given the neutral RSI and recent analyst optimism.

Should You Buy AVAX? Entry Strategy For investors considering AVAX exposure, the current technical setup offers several entry opportunities:

Aggressive Entry: Current levels around $9.53 offer reasonable risk-reward, with stop-loss placement below $9.17 (immediate support).

Conservative Entry: Wait for a pullback to the $9.20-9.30 range (near 7-day SMA support) for better entry positioning.

Breakout Entry: Consider buying on a confirmed break above $9.75 with volume, targeting the $10.50-12.00 range.

Risk management remains crucial, with position sizing appropriate for the 20% daily volatility typical in crypto markets.

Conclusion This AVAX price prediction suggests measured optimism for the coming weeks. With analyst targets ranging from $10.50 to $15.00 and technical indicators showing neutral to slightly bullish momentum, Avalanche appears positioned for potential gains.

The key catalyst will be AVAX's ability to break and hold above the $9.75 resistance level. Success here opens the door to the $12-15 Avalanche forecast provided by recent analyst coverage.

However, crypto markets remain highly volatile and unpredictable. This analysis represents current market conditions and should not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and never invest more than you can afford to lose.

Confidence Level: Moderate bullish (60% probability of reaching $10.50+ within 4 weeks)

Image source: Shutterstock

avax price analysis avax price prediction

TLDR: USSD is backed 1:1 by U.S. Treasury bills held with BlackRock, Superstate, and WisdomTree funds. Sonic’s native stablecoin offers zero minting fees and permissionless access through non-custodial smart contracts. USSD supports cross-chain minting and redemption across more than 10 networks, including Ethereum and Base. Reserve yield from USSD flows back into the Sonic ecosystem, funding buybacks and network-wide incentives.
USSD, the US Sonic Dollar, is now live on Sonic as a network-integrated stablecoin. Sonic Labs announced the launch of this permissionless, zero-fee digital dollar.

The asset is built on Frax Finance’s frxUSD infrastructure. Backed 1:1 by U.S. Treasury bills, it draws reserves from BlackRock, Superstate, and WisdomTree.

Available across more than 10 chains, USSD is designed to anchor stable liquidity across Sonic. It also serves as the network’s core dollar primitive.

Institutional Reserves and Network-Native Design Set USSD Apart Sonic Labs designed USSD to address a persistent problem in decentralized finance. When stable assets originate outside a network, trading, lending, and settlement tend to form elsewhere.

A native stablecoin changes that by giving Sonic a shared dollar base. Every protocol on the network can then build around a single, reliable USD primitive.

The reserve structure behind USSD follows the same framework Frax applies to its stablecoin. Reserves consist of short-duration, tokenized U.S. Treasury products. BlackRock’s BUIDL, Superstate’s USTB, and WisdomTree’s WTGXX form the current reserve set. These assets are held with regulated custodians to maintain redemption confidence.

Sonic Labs shared the announcement on social media, writing: “Introducing USSD, the US Sonic Dollar. A network-native USD stablecoin built to be the stable liquidity layer across the Sonic ecosystem.” The team also confirmed backing from BlackRock, Superstate, and WisdomTree, alongside zero minting fees.

Introducing USSD, the US Sonic Dollar.

A network-native USD stablecoin built to be the stable liquidity layer across the Sonic ecosystem and a core piece of our vertical integration initiative.

Built on @fraxfinance's infrastructure. Backed 1:1 by U.S. Treasury bills from… pic.twitter.com/4S0RZQQanm

— Sonic (@SonicLabs) March 9, 2026

USSD is also designed to be GENIUS-compatible through its Frax frxUSD infrastructure. This alignment positions the stablecoin within a regulatory-compliant category.

It makes engagement more accessible for both institutional participants and everyday users. The structure is intended to support long-term predictability across DeFi applications on Sonic.

Cross-Chain Minting, Zero Fees, and Ecosystem Yield Define the Model USSD is mintable through non-custodial smart contracts directly on Sonic. Users deposit supported USD assets at a 1:1 ratio with no minting fees applied.

Accepted assets include USDC, USDT, PYUSD, USDB, BUIDL, USTB, and WTGXX. Anyone can mint without custodial gatekeeping or added friction.

Cross-chain minting extends access well beyond Sonic itself. A user can deposit USDC on a separate chain and receive USSD directly on Sonic.

The system supports more than 10 chains at launch, including Ethereum, Base, and Arbitrum. This setup simplifies stable liquidity entry into the Sonic ecosystem.

Redemption follows the same flexible approach. Holders can redeem USSD 1:1 into supported USD assets on their preferred chain.

CCTP-supported chains are included in the redemption path, connecting the stablecoin to widely used dollar rails. Future phases will allow eligible users to convert to fiat, subject to KYC and issuer approval.

The yield from USSD’s Treasury-backed reserves flows back into the Sonic ecosystem. This supports buybacks and ecosystem incentives as usage grows over time.

Rather than allowing reserve income to leave the network, value is routed back to participants. USSD is, therefore, a key piece of Sonic’s broader vertical integration strategy.