Market Signal Briefing

17h05 ▪ 4 min read ▪ by James G.

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Bitcoin’s short-term risk metrics have slipped into extreme territory, reviving debate over whether the market is nearing another major bottom. A widely followed measure, the short-term Sharpe Ratio, has dropped to around -38.38—a level seen only a handful of times in Bitcoin’s history. Analysts tracking on-chain and statistical data say similar readings have previously aligned with long-term buying opportunities.

In brief Bitcoin’s short-term Sharpe Ratio plunges to -38.38, a historically rare extreme reading. Similar risk signals appeared near the major cycle bottoms of 2015, 2019 and 2022. BTC is down roughly 50% from its $126,200 peak, trading near $65,700. Analysts warn macro risks could delay recovery despite signs of market stress. Sharpe Ratio Hits an Unusual Low According to CryptoQuant-verified author Moreno, comparable extremes appeared near the cycle lows of 2015, 2019, and late 2022. Each period was marked by deep pessimism, heavy losses, and sharp volatility before prices staged sizable recoveries.

The Sharpe Ratio tracks returns relative to volatility. When the metric falls far below zero over a short window, it signals that investors are absorbing steep losses relative to the volatility of prices.

A reading near -38.38 ranks among the most extreme on record. Reports suggest Bitcoin has entered similar territory only four times. Each instance followed intense market stress, with weakening sentiment and forced selling weighing on prices. History shows that such conditions can coincide with seller exhaustion, even when technical indicators remain fragile.

Past cycles offer context:

Capitulation dominated trading activity, with many short-term holders exiting at a loss. Liquidity thinned as volumes declined and participation narrowed. Volatility spiked, creating sharp intraday swings and emotional reactions. Long-term investors gradually accumulated as risk-reward profiles improved. These dynamics appeared around $287 in 2015, near $4,100 in early 2019, and roughly $15,000 in late 2022. Multi-month rallies followed in each case, reversing a large portion of the prior declines.

Bitcoin Price Action Remains Fragile Recent trading has been highly sensitive to headlines and macro tensions. Bitcoin slipped below key psychological levels as broader risk assets weakened. Thin liquidity amplified reactions to geopolitical developments and policy uncertainty, producing uneven price swings.

At times, BTC managed to absorb risk-off flows and stabilize. In other sessions, renewed selling pressure pushed prices lower, particularly when market depth faded. Short-term traders remain cautious, while longer-term holders are watching for signs that downside momentum is slowing.

Extreme Risk Signal Emerges, But Bitcoin’s Bottom Remains Unconfirmed A deeply negative Sharpe Ratio does not guarantee an immediate rebound. External pressures—including tighter liquidity conditions or unexpected macro shocks—can prolong weakness beyond historical averages.

Bitcoin’s roughly 50% retreat from its October 2025 peak near $126,200 to about $65,700 suggests that much of the damage has already occurred. Still, further volatility cannot be ruled out. Careful position sizing and disciplined entry strategies remain essential for participants considering exposure at current levels.

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James G.

James Godstime is a crypto journalist and market analyst with over three years of experience in crypto, Web3, and finance. He simplifies complex and technical ideas to engage readers. Outside of work, he enjoys football and tennis, which he follows passionately.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.

TLDR: Ethereum NUPL on Binance has fallen to -0.1689, marking its lowest recorded value in approximately nine months. A negative NUPL reading shows most Binance ETH reserves are currently sitting in unrealized loss territory near $1,973. The last comparable NUPL dip on Binance occurred around May 2024, during a sharp digital asset market correction. Historically, deep negative NUPL levels on Binance have been associated with reduced selling pressure and potential accumulation zones. Ethereum NUPL on Binance has fallen to its lowest point in about nine months. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss indicator is currently sitting near a value of -0.1689 on the exchange.

This places a considerable portion of Binance’s Ethereum reserves in unrealized loss territory. Ethereum is trading at approximately $1,973 at the time of writing.

The reading is drawing attention from market participants monitoring sentiment on the world’s most liquid crypto exchange.

What the Negative NUPL Reading Signals for Ethereum Holders on Binance The Ethereum NUPL on Binance measures whether coins held in the exchange’s reserves sit in unrealized profit or loss.

It does not track the broader Ethereum network as a whole. Rather, it focuses solely on Binance’s reserve activity, offering exchange-specific sentiment data.

A negative reading like -0.1689 shows that most Ethereum held on Binance is currently at a loss. Historically, this type of reading tends to slow selling pressure on the market. Traders holding unrealized losses are less inclined to sell and lock those losses in.

Source: Cryptoquant

This shift matters because Binance is the world’s most liquid cryptocurrency exchange by volume. Activity on its platform carries outsized influence over broader market dynamics.

Binance processes billions in daily trading volume, making its reserve data particularly relevant. When its holders move into loss territory, the behavioral response often differs from what broader network data shows.

The NUPL chart therefore gives analysts a sharper picture of exchange-level positioning. It complements other on-chain tools by narrowing the focus to one key venue.

Analysts tracking exchange-specific data often prioritize this reading when assessing short-term market dynamics. For those watching selling pressure, the current negative reading is a notable development worth tracking.

How This Reading Compares to Historical Levels and What It Could Mean The last time Ethereum NUPL on Binance registered similarly low values was around May 2024. That period coincided with a sharp market correction and widespread weakness in digital asset prices.

Since that point, the indicator largely recovered and traded near zero or above.

The return to negative territory today stands out against that backdrop. Over the past nine months, this represents one of the more pronounced dips recorded by the indicator.

That context adds weight to the current reading beyond just the number itself.

Some market participants historically associate these levels with potential accumulation zones. However, a negative NUPL reading alone does not confirm a price bottom has formed. It reflects current unrealized loss conditions within Binance reserves, nothing more and nothing less.

Traders and analysts continue to watch this metric as one data point among many. The current reading shows holders on Binance are underwater on their positions.

Whether that leads to accumulation or further pressure remains to be seen in the days ahead.

Bitcoin’s short term Sharpe ratio sank to near minus 38, a level CryptoQuant data linked to past cycle stress zones. Meanwhile, BTC hovered near $67,987 as chart watchers focused on a weekend micro support band between $66,190 and $66,946.

Bitcoin short-term Sharpe ratio revisits historical stress zoneBitcoin’s short-term Sharpe ratio has fallen to an extreme negative level that CryptoQuant data and an analyst post on X linked to past cycle lows. The reading on the chart sits near –38, a zone the post described as historically rare and previously seen during periods when Bitcoin traded under heavy stress.

Bitcoin Short Term Sharpe Ratio. Source: CryptoQuant

The chart overlays Bitcoin’s price with the short-term Sharpe ratio and highlights similar extremes around 2015, 2019, and 2022. In each instance, the indicator dipped far below zero as short-horizon returns weakened and volatility rose. Then, price later recovered and eventually pushed to higher levels, which the analyst framed as a repeat pattern in risk-adjusted terms.

This move lower in the Sharpe ratio follows a run-up into late 2024 and a cooling phase afterward. As price action slowed, volatility stayed elevated, so the risk-adjusted measure compressed quickly. Therefore, the metric slipped into the same band that earlier marked capitulation-style conditions on shorter time frames.

The historical examples in the chart show the Sharpe ratio improving after those deep negatives, alongside a steadier price structure. However, the indicator tracks short-term risk-adjusted performance rather than confirming a full trend shift. As a result, the current signal shows stress in the short window, while the next direction still depends on how price and volatility develop from here.

Micro support at $66,190–$66,946 frames short term BTC setupBitcoin traded near $67,987 on a 15 minute BTCUSD index chart as analyst group More Crypto Online said price may be forming a B wave inside what they labeled white wave 2. The update framed the current move as a bounce phase after the recent drop, while the chart kept a downward sloping trendline overhead that price has started to challenge.

Bitcoin 15 Minute BTCUSD Index Chart. Source: More Crypto Online

More Crypto Online marked a micro support zone between $66,190 and $66,946 and said the white scenario remains the lead case as long as $66,190 holds. Because that band sits just below current price, it acts as the nearest buffer if BTC retraces during the weekend session.

On the upside, the analyst set $68,304 as the first resistance level. The chart also showed a higher resistance box above, with Fibonacci references labeled around $68,304, $68,945, and $69,867, which clustered into a near term ceiling if price continues higher.

Solana faced new skepticism on its monthly chart as analysts pointed to heavy overhead supply and repeat cycle signals. Two separate posts framed the setup around whether demand can hold through the current pullback without repeating past drawdowns

SOL monthly chart shows supply zone under $300, while price slides into a major gap areaGreenytrades argued that Solana could struggle to reclaim and hold levels above $300. He tied that view to SOL’s token inflation, which can create steady sell pressure, and he said demand has looked mostly cyclical. In his framing, SOL would need “permanent buyers,” not just bull cycle flows, to sustain prices above $300.

Solana SOLUSD Monthly Chart. Source: TradingView / greenytrades on X

On the monthly SOLUSD chart (Binance), price trades near the mid $80s after a long decline from the 2024–2025 highs. The chart also highlights a wide gray supply band below the prior peak zone, where candles previously rejected and turned lower. Because that band sits well under $300, it marks a visible overhead area that sellers defended before the latest downtrend accelerated.

Meanwhile, price now approaches a lower gray region labeled as a monthly fair value gap, with an additional “3M FVG” zone beneath it. That placement matters because gaps like these often act as magnets during retracements, and they can also become decision areas once price trades inside them. Therefore, this chart read centers on whether SOL stabilizes in that gap region or continues to bleed into the deeper zone below.

Ali Charts flags repeat sell signals on SOL monthly chart as price revisits prior cycle structureAli Charts questioned whether this cycle is different for Solana. His post points to a familiar pattern on the monthly SOL chart, where prior cycle peaks triggered sell signals before a deep drawdown. In the earlier cycle, the chart marked a sell near the top, followed by a prolonged decline that erased most of the prior gains. That history frames the current setup, where a new sell marker appears near the recent highs.

Solana SOL Monthly Chart. Source: Ali Charts on X

On the chart, the recent structure mirrors the earlier cycle rhythm. First, price pushed into a high zone and printed a sell signal. Next, candles rolled over and began a sustained pullback. Because the prior cycle followed the same sequence, the comparison focuses on structure rather than timing. Therefore, the question centers on whether this pullback remains a standard cycle reset or develops into a deeper trend shift.

The visual also shows a long base that formed after the prior collapse, followed by a strong recovery phase. That sequence matters because the current structure now sits at a similar point in the cycle path. As a result, Ali Charts frames the setup as a repeat test of cycle behavior. The chart does not confirm outcomes. Instead, it highlights that the same signals and structure have appeared again, which puts the focus on how price behaves as this phase unfolds.

Bank of America's latest market call reads less like a typical bear forecast and more like a structural warning about what happens when markets stop paying premium multiples, even if profits keep growing.

The firm argues that the S&P 500 remains “statistically expensive” on 18 of 20 valuation metrics, with four near-record highs, and expects P/E compression despite forecasting robust 14% earnings growth.

That setup of strong fundamentals meeting falling multiples creates a textbook risk-off problem for Bitcoin, which has increasingly traded as a high-volatility equity beta rather than the diversifier narrative that dominated crypto's early institutional pitch.

The mechanics matter because BofA isn't predicting an earnings collapse.

The firm's year-end S&P 500 target of 7,100 implies significant multiple compression even with profits on the high end of consensus, driven by five specific pressure points: earnings downgrades following price drops, a surge in IPO supply expanding the equity base, rising asset intensity and leverage in corporate balance sheets, and what BofA calls “index risk from private hiccups.”

Software stands out as the stress epicenter, down roughly 20% year-to-date, with valuations near decade lows amid AI concerns, a sector BofA explicitly flags as unlikely to snap back quickly.

For Bitcoin, that matters because crypto's relationship with traditional equities has fundamentally shifted since 2020.

CME research documents correlations between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq reaching 0.35 to 0.6 during 2025 and early 2026, with crypto consistently amplifying equity moves on down days.

The “digital gold” diversification thesis has given way to a reality where Bitcoin functions as liquid beta in multi-asset portfolios, a high-volatility extension of US tech exposure that gets sold first when risk appetite contracts.

Bitcoin's 20-day rolling correlation with major equity indices shows near-zero correlation with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq as of late October 2025, while maintaining strong positive correlation above 0.90 with Ethereum, XRP, and Solana.Duration math meets cashflow-free assetsWhen markets demand higher risk premiums or real yields rise, long-duration assets reprice lower.

Bitcoin has no earnings stream, no dividends, and no terminal value calculation. Yet, it behaves empirically like an asset with extreme duration sensitivity.

The mechanism runs through discount rates: if equities with actual cash flows see multiples compress because investors pay less for future growth, an asset with purely speculative cash flows tends to get hit harder.

The tell will show up in real yields and equity volatility rising together.

If the March FOMC signals a slower pace of rate cuts, particularly after the February CPI print on Mar. 11, Bitcoin's implied “duration” gets repriced alongside growth stocks.

BlackRock explicitly framed 2026's crypto trajectory as being driven “in large part” by liquidity conditions and the pace of cuts, positioning monetary policy as a first-order driver rather than a secondary consideration.

Cross-asset deleveraging and the liquidity problemFeb. 5 delivered a stress test of how quickly crypto can get caught in broader portfolio deleveraging.
Bitcoin liquidations exceeded $1 billion that day, coinciding with a tech selloff and deteriorating risk sentiment linked to institutional crypto ETF outflows.

The episode wasn't an idiosyncratic crypto event, it was a reflection of Bitcoin's position in the liquidity hierarchy.

When multi-asset portfolios reduce gross exposure during drawdowns, managers sell what's liquid and what moves. Bitcoin qualifies on both counts.

IMF research has documented increasing spillovers and interdependence between crypto and traditional financial assets, particularly during turbulence.

The structural setup means Bitcoin doesn't decouple during stress. It amplifies the initial risk-off impulse because it's easier to exit than locked-up private positions or illiquid alternatives.

Reuters highlighted AI-driven borrowing sprees lifting corporate leverage and pressuring coverage ratios, exactly the kind of macro feedback loop that worsens risk-off cascades.

More leverage in the system means more fragility, and Bitcoin sits at the intersection of maximum liquidity and maximum volatility when those cascades trigger.

ETF mechanics turn sentiment into daily tape signalsThe introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs changed how risk-off translates into price action.

What used to show up as generalized “sentiment” now appears mechanically as slower inflows or outright redemptions, turning institutional positioning into a daily observable signal.

CoinShares reported $1.7 billion in weekly outflows as of early February, with Bitcoin alone accounting for $1.32 billion, a sharp reversal that flipped year-to-date flows into net negative territory.

The ETF structure creates a tight feedback loop: equity weakness triggers outflows, which pressure Bitcoin prices, which can trigger stop-losses and forced selling in leveraged positions, which in turn feed back into more outflows.

That's fundamentally different from the pre-ETF era, when institutional exposure was harder to track and slower to adjust. Now the plumbing exists for equity-market stress to be transmitted to crypto markets within the same trading session.

Failed rallies become easier to diagnose. If Bitcoin bounces on lighter volume but ETF flows remain negative or neutral, the rally lacks institutional conviction.

Multi-day redemption patterns coinciding with range-bound or declining prices suggest the bid won't return until either equity conditions stabilize or macro catalysts shift.

AI narrative contagion and the beta-selling reflexBofA's specific call-out of software as 2026's worst-performing sector carries weight beyond traditional equity analysis.

Software's roughly 20% year-to-date decline, with valuations at decade lows, reflects growing skepticism about AI capex returns and the sustainability of winner-takes-all narratives.

If the market shifts from “AI transforms everything” to “AI capex may be mispriced,” the instinct isn't to carefully separate winners from losers, but to sell broad beta exposures.

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Bitcoin gets bucketed into that beta pile despite having no direct AI exposure.

The mechanism runs through narrative contagion: when high-growth, high-multiple sectors crack, risk managers reduce exposure to anything perceived as speculative or momentum-driven.

Reports tied the software selloff directly to Bitcoin and Ethereum weakness on Feb. 5, noting the software index decline “accelerated the slide” in crypto markets.

Nvidia's earnings call on Feb. 25 functions as the immediate test.

If guidance disappoints or raises questions about capex ROI sustainability, the software weakness is likely to deepen, and Bitcoin faces renewed selling pressure as managers exit what they perceive as correlated risk.

If Nvidia calms concerns and stabilizes the AI tape, Bitcoin gets a reprieve, but only if flows turn positive and macro conditions cooperate.

Three scenarios, one catalyst windowThe base case assumes orderly de-rating: mixed earnings, acceptable CPI data, and a cautious Fed in March.

Equities grind sideways or lower as valuations compress gradually. Bitcoin trades choppy with a downside bias, rallies fade when ETF flows stay weak, and correlation with equity risk-on/risk-off remains positive but manageable.

Volatility compresses, liquidations stay contained, and the market waits for the next macro catalyst.

The tail risk centers on an AI air pocket: Nvidia's guidance spooks the capex narrative, software follow-through accelerates lower, and equity volatility spikes.

Bitcoin suffers a drawdown larger than that of equities because it's the most liquid, high-beta asset available. ETF outflows accelerate, liquidations surge, credit spreads widen, and forced selling dominates.

The tell would be unmistakable: sharp, correlated moves across risk assets with crypto leading the decline.

The upside scenario requires macro relief: CPI cools, the Fed signals cuts sooner, and Nvidia reassures markets on AI fundamentals. Equities bounce, and Bitcoin can outperform on reflexive risk-on flows plus improving ETF demand.

Correlations rise as inflows return and volatility falls. That outcome depends on multiple conditions aligning, which is possible, but not the path of least resistance, given the current positioning.

ScenarioNVDA outcome (Feb 25)CPI outcome (Mar 11)FOMC signal (Mar 17–18)Equity regime (vol + multiples)BTC impact (direction + volatility)Base: Orderly de-ratingBeats/inline; guidance steady, but not “blowout” (capex ROI questions linger)In-line / slightly cooler; no inflation re-accelerationCautious hold; reinforces “data-dependent,” cuts not imminentValuation leak: gradual P/E compression, rotation, moderately higher vol but containedChoppy, downside bias; rallies fade on weak risk appetite; vol moderateDownside: AI air-pocket / risk-off cascadeMiss or shaky guidance; capex intensity questioned; “AI trade” de-rates hardHot print / sticky services; pushes out cutsMore hawkish hold; slower/less cutting pathSharp multiple compression + vol spike; “sell beta” tape, tightening financial conditionsDown hard, amplified vs equities (liquid beta); ETF outflows/liq. risk increases; vol highUpside: Macro relief + AI reassuranceStrong beat; guidance de-risks AI demand + capex ROICooler-than-expected; disinflation narrative strengthensDovish hold / signals earlier cuts (or faster pace)Risk-on rebound; vol falls; multiples stabilize or re-rate modestlyUp, can outperform on reflexive risk-on + improving flows; vol falls but remains elevated vs equitiesThe immediate test arrives within weeksFeb. 25 brings Nvidia's earnings call. Mar. 11 delivers the February CPI print. March 17-18 frames the next FOMC decision.

Those three events determine whether BofA's P/E compression thesis plays out quickly or gets delayed by better-than-feared data.

For Bitcoin, the stakes are straightforward: if equities reprice from “priced for perfection” to “pay less for risk,” crypto gets sold as liquid beta through deleveraging, tighter liquidity, and ETF mechanics before any serious decoupling debate begins.

BofA maintains its 7,100 year-end S&P 500 target and warns a quick rebound looks unlikely.

If that view proves accurate, Bitcoin faces a structural headwind that has little to do with crypto-specific fundamentals and everything to do with its position as a high-volatility equity beta in an environment where markets stop paying premium multiples.

The catalyst window is immediate, the transmission channels are well established, and the ETF infrastructure ensures feedback loops run faster than in previous cycles.

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TLDR: Nakamoto Inc. purchased 5,398 BTC near Bitcoin’s $118K peak, now sitting on $270M in unrealized losses. The $23.6B market cap wipeout marks one of the steepest corporate Bitcoin treasury collapses in crypto history. A reverse takeover structure helped launch $NAKA’s Bitcoin strategy but accelerated losses as sentiment shifted fast. The 99% drop in 280 days is pushing institutional investors to reconsider single large Bitcoin purchases near cycle tops. $23.6 billion in market value has been wiped from Nakamoto Inc. ($NAKA) in just 280 days. The company purchased 5,398 Bitcoin near the asset’s all-time high of $118,000.

That single decision now carries $270 million in unrealized losses. The market capitalization collapse of 99% has stunned both retail and institutional observers.

This ranks among the most damaging corporate Bitcoin treasury bets on record.

How a Bold Bitcoin Bet Became a $23.6B Collapse The scale of the $23.6 billion market cap erasure did not happen overnight. Nakamoto Inc. built its Bitcoin reserve strategy through a reverse takeover structure.

That approach generated early momentum and brief investor enthusiasm around the stock. As Bitcoin retreated from peak levels, however, the company’s valuation followed in dramatic fashion.

Buying 5,398 BTC at approximately $118,000 per coin left the company extremely vulnerable to any price correction. There was no phased entry, no cost-averaging approach, and no visible downside buffer in place.

When prices moved against the position, the losses compounded quickly across 280 days. The result was a near-total destruction of shareholder value.

Analyst @wiseadvicesumit captured the situation plainly, writing that “conviction is powerful” but “timing is brutal.”

The post described this as what happens when “number go up forever” meets reality. That framing resonated widely across crypto communities and financial circles. Many observers pointed to the entry price as the single most critical failure in the entire strategy.

🚨 BITCOIN TREASURY NIGHTMARE$NAKA went all-in on Bitcoin near the highs.

280 days later? Down 99%.
$23.6B market cap erased.
5,398 BTC bought near $118K.
$270M sitting in unrealized losses.

Conviction is powerful.
Timing is brutal.

This is what happens when “number go up… pic.twitter.com/7XFXKle7jo

— Wise Advice (@wiseadvicesumit) February 22, 2026

The $270M Loss That Is Reshaping Corporate Crypto Strategy The $270 million sitting in unrealized losses represents more than a balance sheet problem for Nakamoto Inc. It signals a broader warning for any corporate treasury considering large, concentrated Bitcoin positions.

Crypto commentator @nice_investment described the collapse as “one of the most expensive timing errors in crypto history.” That assessment is difficult to argue against, given the numbers involved.

The use of a reverse takeover to establish the Bitcoin reserve drew significant attention at launch. It positioned Nakamoto Inc. as an aggressive, conviction-driven institutional player in the crypto space.

Yet the same structure that amplified early excitement also accelerated the downside when sentiment shifted. The $23.6 billion erasure now follows that story wherever it is told.

Corporate treasury teams across the industry are watching this outcome carefully. Single large purchases near market cycle peaks have historically produced poor returns across multiple Bitcoin cycles.

This case adds a striking new data point to that pattern. Going forward, phased entry strategies and defined risk thresholds are likely to gain more favor among institutions entering the Bitcoin market.

Shiba Inu forms inverse head-and-shoulders on 4-hour chart, with analysts eyeing $0.0000090 if $0.0000072 resistance breaks.

Newton Gitonga2 min read

22 February 2026, 02:22 PM

Edited 22 February 2026, 02:36 PM

Shiba Inu price action shows signs of a potential bullish reversal after weeks of sustained weakness across the crypto market. Analysts report that an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is forming on the 4-hour chart, raising expectations of a breakout. SHIB has dropped over 20% in the past 30 days, reflecting broader volatility and price uncertainty. However, recent technical structure suggests selling pressure may be fading if bulls reclaim key resistance levels.

Neckline Breakout Holds the Key for Shiba InuTechnical analyst Crypto Sat stated on X that SHIB has formed a clean inverse head-and-shoulders pattern in its late-stage formation. He noted that the left shoulder formed near $0.00000616, while the head appeared around the multi-year low of roughly $0.00000510 on February 6. The right shoulder developed close to $0.00000614, completing the structure. According to him, the inverted formation signals that bearish momentum may be nearing exhaustion.

He explained that the neckline sits between $0.0000070 and $0.0000072. A strong close above $0.0000072 with increased volume would confirm the breakout. That level stands about 15% above the current price. If SHIB clears it, he expects a quick push toward $0.0000078. He then projected a measured move to $0.0000085, followed by a potential advance to $0.0000090.

Crypto Sat cautioned that failure to break resistance could extend downside risks. He identified $0.0000060 as immediate support if selling resumes. A decline below $0.0000058 would invalidate the bullish setup. In that scenario, SHIB could revisit $0.0000051, the level that formed the head.

Broader Market Structure Points to Possible Trend ShiftSwallowAcademy also highlighted shift in Shiba Inu market structure during the same timeframe. He reported that SHIB broke its previous lower high during a rally to $0.00000725 on February 14. That move signaled a break in the bearish market structure.

He added that SHIB is now retesting the breakout level. If buyers defend that zone, price could climb toward $0.0000085, aligning with Crypto Sat’s target. Despite these bullish signals, analysts acknowledge that bears still control broader market momentum. Renewed selling pressure could therefore push Shiba Inu to lower levels if support fails.

As of the writing, Shiba Inu was trading at $0.00000618, down by 5.25% in the past 24 hours.

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TLDR: SBI will issue Security Token bonds through blockchain instead of traditional depository systems used in Japanese capital markets. Retail investors can trade the bonds on a digital exchange platform starting in March 2026. Eligible bondholders will receive XRP benefits tied to their subscription and interest payment dates. The project supports Japan’s push to merge regulated finance with token-based settlement systems. SBI Holdings has unveiled plans to issue its first Security Token bonds aimed at individual investors in Japan. The offering marks a shift from traditional bond management toward blockchain-based issuance and settlement. 

Trading will begin on a digital marketplace designed for retail participation. The move signals a broader push to integrate tokenized assets into regulated capital markets.

Security Token bonds enter Japan’s retail market SBI Holdings filed an amended shelf registration with the Kanto Local Finance Bureau to prepare the bond sale. The bonds will carry the nickname SBI START Bonds and operate under a digital transfer registration system.

Unlike conventional bonds recorded through Japan Securities Depository Center, the issuance will rely on blockchain infrastructure. SBI will use the ibet for Fin platform developed by BOOSTRY to manage the full lifecycle.

The digital system will handle issuance, administration, and redemption electronically. SBI said this approach removes paper-based processing and reduces reliance on legacy settlement workflows.

Retail trading will start on March 25, 2026, through the proprietary trading system START. The platform is operated by Osaka Digital Exchange and will allow individual investors to buy and sell the bonds in an open market.

XRP rewards and blockchain settlement model Investors who purchase the Security Token bonds will receive XRP benefits linked to their subscription amounts. SBI confirmed that only domestic residents and corporations qualify for the incentive.

To receive the XRP, bondholders must open an account with SBI VC Trade and complete required procedures by the stated deadline. Distribution will occur on each interest payment date through 2029.

The company framed the reward structure as part of its broader digital asset strategy. SBI has expanded its blockchain operations through partnerships, investments, and proof-of-concept trials across Japan.

The group said tokenized bonds support its vision of an economy where transactions and settlements occur directly on blockchain networks. Officials also stated that growth in the Security Token bond market could help modernize Japan’s capital markets.

According to the company’s disclosure, the issuance will not materially affect consolidated financial results. SBI positioned the project as an infrastructure experiment rather than a revenue driver.

The bond launch follows a wider trend among Japanese financial firms to test tokenized securities under existing regulatory frameworks. 

SBI described the initiative as a step toward linking traditional finance with on-chain settlement systems while keeping investor protections intact.

TLDR: Bitdeer’s weekly update confirmed zero corporate Bitcoin holdings after selling both new output and reserves. The company mined 189.8 BTC and sold 1,132.9 BTC total during the reporting period ending February 20. Bitdeer now leads public miners in self-managed hashrate, surpassing Marathon Digital’s internal capacity. A $325 million convertible notes deal supported debt refinancing and data center expansion for mining and AI services. Bitdeer disclosed that it now holds zero Bitcoin after selling its entire treasury position. The move followed a week in which the company mined Bitcoin and liquidated both new output and reserves. 

The update placed Bitdeer at the top of publicly traded miners by self-managed hashrate. The announcement triggered a market reaction and renewed focus on miners’ balance sheet strategies.

Bitdeer Bitcoin holdings fall to zero after full liquidation Bitdeer reported that its pure Bitcoin holdings dropped to zero as of February 20, 2026. The company clarified that the figure excludes customer deposits and reflects only corporate reserves.

Data shared through its weekly update showed Bitcoin output of 189.8 BTC during the period. Bitdeer sold the same 189.8 BTC and an additional 943.1 BTC from existing reserves.

The company posted the figures on its official X account, accompanied by a line chart. The chart tracked output, sales, net additions, and holdings from late January through February 20.

The update followed a $325 million convertible notes offering earlier this month. The funding aimed to refinance debt and support expansion of mining and AI cloud infrastructure.

Bitdeer linked the decision to higher operating costs and reduced reliance on volatile Bitcoin reserves. The firm has increased focus on liquidity management while scaling its data center footprint.

Self-managed hashrate surpasses Marathon as market reacts Bitdeer’s self-managed Bitcoin hashrate has now surpassed that of Marathon Digital, also known as Mara. This milestone makes Bitdeer the publicly traded miner with the largest internally operated hashrate.

The company emphasized that self-managed capacity excludes hosted or customer-owned mining machines. This metric reflects only infrastructure controlled directly by Bitdeer.

The mining firm is owned by Jihan Wu, a long-time figure in the mining sector. His company has shifted toward vertical integration of mining and computing services.

Following the disclosure, Bitdeer shares fell about 2 percent to roughly $7.78. The decline reflected investor concern over dilution tied to the recent convertible debt issuance.

Company updates described the Bitcoin sales as part of a broader liquidity strategy. The approach prioritizes funding for energy costs and capital-intensive expansion projects.

Bitdeer continues to report weekly figures on production and asset movements. The firm has positioned transparency as a way to track operational performance in a competitive mining market.

Analysts speculated that a large issuer like Circle might be moving reserve assets en masse into the ETF, but data show otherwise. Feb 22, 2026, 3:00 p.m.

ProShares’ new ETF built for the fast-growing, $300 billion world of stablecoins had a massive launch, fueling speculation that one major stablecoin issuer may be involved.

The fund, called the ProShares GENIUS Money Market ETF (IQMM), is designed to hold short-term U.S. Treasuries and meet the reserve requirements laid out in the GENIUS Act, a federal law regulating stablecoin issuers in the U.S. It’s the first ETF structured specifically to fit those rules, and that positioning may have caught the attention of some of the largest players in crypto.

STORY CONTINUES BELOW

The ETF logged a whopping $17 billion in trading volume on its first day, suggesting that some large players were allocating to the fund. For context, BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF — one of the most anticipated launches in many years— saw $1 billion in first-day volume.

Circle moving funds or internal shuffle?The massive volume has left analysts speculating about the source of the inflows.

Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, said in an X post that the heavy flows might signal a deal with a major U.S.-based stablecoin issuer. "Looking at assets, believe that would only leave Circle," he said, referring to the company behind the $74 billion USDC token.

However, Circle’s main reserve fund for USDC, managed by BlackRock, hasn’t shown any major changes so far. It held nearly $64 billion in assets as of Friday, up from $59 billion at the end of January, data shows.

What's more likely is that the initial volume came from ProShares’ own funds moving assets for cash management purposes.

Ben Johnson, head of client solutions for asset management at Morningstar, noted that one of ProShares’ leveraged ETFs, QTTT, moved $6 billion into IQMM on launch day. That kind of internal allocation would explain a large portion of the day-one activity.

Playbook for stablecoin reservesStill, demand from stablecoin issuers is a real possibility. With over $300 billion in U.S. dollar stablecoins in circulation, a significant portion of those reserves could eventually be allocated to ETFs like IQMM.

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, wrote in a Friday report that IQMM is "currently the only purpose-built tool" that meets the GENIUS Act rules while providing high-speed liquidity.

That could make it a go-to choice for U.S.-based issuers like Circle, Paxos and BitGo — and even for banks looking to issue their own tokenized deposits under the new law. Tether, which runs the largest stablecoin in the world with the $184 billion USDT token, has also rolled out a stablecoin with federal bank Anchorage Digital in the U.S. market.

As stablecoins become increasingly regulated with new tokens launching, tens of billions in additional assets could eventually flow into funds like IQMM, Thielen said.

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‘Bitcoin to zero’ searches spike in the U.S., but the bottom signal is mixed

19 hours ago

Google Trends data shows the term hit a record high in the U.S. this month, though global interest has fallen since peaking in August.

What to know:

U.S. searches for “bitcoin zero” on Google hit a record high in February as BTC slid toward $60,000 after hitting a peak in October.In the rest of the world, searches for the term peaked in August, suggesting fear is concentrated in the U.S. rather than worldwide.Similar U.S. search spikes in 2021 and 2022 coincided with local bottoms.Because Google Trends measures relative interest on a 0-to-100 scale amid a much larger bitcoin user base today, the latest U.S. spike signals elevated retail anxiety, but does not reliably guarantee a clean contrarian reversal.

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Bitcoin held its ground over the weekend as US President Donald Trump said late Saturday that he was increasing a recently announced global tariff from 10% to 15% and that the new rate would take effect immediately.

The move came after the US Supreme Court ruled to limit the legal authority previously used to impose broad import levies.

Bitcoin Unmoved Cryptocurrencies barely budged on the news. Bitcoin hovered around the $68,000 mark while Ether showed little change, and smaller tokens lost under 1% in aggregate according to market trackers. Reports note that traders only saw a brief wobble before prices steadied, suggesting the shock was short lived.

BTCUSD now trading at $68,028. Chart: TradingView Legal Limits And What They Mean Based on reports, the shift to alternative trade laws limits how far a president can go with such tariffs. The statutes cited allow a temporary tariff capped at 15% and typically apply to countries where the US runs a trade deficit for a defined period of up to 150 days.

Legal experts say those constraints could keep the measure from becoming a permanent tax rise on imports.

Trump said on his Truth Social platform:

“As President of the United States of America, I will be, effective immediately, raising the 10% worldwide tariff on countries, many of which have been ‘ripping’ the US off for decades, without retribution, until I came along, to the fully allowed, and legally tested, 15% level.” How Traders Might Be Thinking Some investors appear to have treated the announcement as a headline event rather than the start of a lasting economic shock.

Volume patterns showed no sustained sell pressure, and risk appetite in crypto markets returned quickly. Reports say the earlier court ruling, which narrowed the executive branch’s emergency powers for tariffs, may have removed some uncertainty — at least for now.

Market sentinels will watch closely in the days ahead. If the White House tries to stretch the temporary authority or expand the list of targeted countries, that could change the tone in both crypto and equity markets.

Bigger Picture For The Economy Raising an across-the-board tariff, even temporarily, raises questions about costs for businesses and consumers.

Import duties are often passed down the chain in the form of higher prices or tightened margins, and global trading partners are likely to push back diplomatically and legally.

Some foreign leaders and industry groups quickly criticized the move, warning it could slow growth and raise consumer bills.

Far from a market-draining shock, this episode so far reads like a high-profile policy stunt with limited immediate market effect.

That could change if the measure is stretched beyond the legal limits that lawmakers and courts have pointed to. For now, crypto traders seem to have chosen to watch and wait while prices remain near recent highs.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

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Christian, a journalist and editor with leadership roles in Philippine and Canadian media, is fueled by his love for writing and cryptocurrency. Off-screen, he's a cook and cinephile who's constantly intrigued by the size of the universe.

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Susbarium Shibarium Trustwatch, a Shiba Inu-focused X account dedicated to uncovering scams, has issued a security notice regarding the newly-launched SOU NFT.

In the week just concluded, the Shiba Inu team announced the launch of the much-awaited SOU (Shib Owes You), a good faith effort by the Shiba Inu ecosystem to assist impacted users of last September's Shibarium hack.

Susbarium stated that it was aware of multiple scam attempts involving the SOU NFT. This comes as bad actors seek to leverage the opportunities presented by the SOU and steal user funds.

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Shiba Inu SOU marks part of efforts to restore users impacted by the Shibarium hack incident last September. The initiative will support impacted Shibarium users with payouts, donations and occasional rewards.

Given the nature of the SOU, it is not unusual for bad actors to seek to scam unsuspecting users, hence Susbarium has issued a security notice.

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Susbarium reminds the SHIB community that the SOU NFT will never be airdropped to users' wallets. Those eligible to claim, they can only do so through the official SHIB website.

Fake SOU portals flaggedThis advisory comes as Shiba Inu team member Lucie alerted the Shiba Inu community that scammers are already running fake SOU portals, with phishing links already mirroring the official sites.

Lucie highlighted these scams to drain user wallets, warning users to only use the official portal.

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In light of this, Susbarium urges the Shiba Inu community not to interact with shared, shortened or copied links and not to click on them. This is because scammers often create fake websites that look identical to the real one in order to steal funds.

In another point, the Shiba Inu community is urged to always type the official SHIB address directly in their browser and verify they are on the correct domain before connecting their wallets. In a final and most important measure, they should never disclose their private keys or seed phrase to anyone under any circumstances.

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CryptoQuant just dropped some wild data. Bitcoin whale activity hit levels not seen since 2015, with the exchange whale ratio climbing to 0.64 amid brutal market conditions. These big players are moving fast.

The numbers paint a pretty grim picture for crypto right now. Bitcoin’s been getting hammered, trading around $23,500 as of February 24 – that’s a nasty 30% drop since January started. Meanwhile, whales are flooding exchanges with deposits, and that’s got traders spooked. The whale ratio basically measures how much of the total exchange deposits come from these massive accounts. When it spikes like this, things usually get interesting fast.

Not looking good out there.

Market analyst Alex Krüger jumped on Twitter to warn smaller investors about what’s coming. “These whale movements often precede significant price shifts,” he said, adding that retail traders better pay attention because these big fish can move markets in ways most people can’t even imagine. And he’s probably right – when you’re talking about accounts holding 1,000+ BTC, that’s serious firepower.

Chainalysis dropped their own bombshell report on February 23. They tracked nearly $500 million worth of bitcoin transfers by whales in just one week. That’s not normal market activity – that’s coordinated movement by people who know something the rest of us don’t. Or maybe they’re just cutting losses before things get worse.

But here’s the thing – nobody’s talking. CryptoQuant won’t say which exchanges are getting hit hardest, and they’re not naming names when it comes to the whales involved. Binance saw a surge in bitcoin deposits on February 18, mostly from large accounts. Kraken reported unusual withdrawal spikes on February 22. The pattern’s clear, but the details are murky.

So what’s really happening here? Some analysts think it’s basic profit-taking. Others see risk management during a brutal downturn. The truth is probably somewhere in between, but without more transparency from the exchanges and analytics firms, we’re all just guessing.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju tried to shed some light on the situation. “Such actions often precede market volatility and can serve as early warnings for traders,” he said. Thanks for the heads up, but that doesn’t really help when the warning comes after the whales have already started moving. For more details, see Ripple Teams Up with Deutsche Bank.

The regulatory angle makes everything more complicated. Authorities worldwide are tightening crypto rules, and that’s got everyone nervous. The SEC hasn’t said a word about these whale activities, which leaves market participants wondering if there’s something bigger brewing. When regulators stay quiet, that usually means they’re watching closely.

Glassnode spotted similar patterns back in January – they called it “strategic positioning by high-net-worth individuals.” Santiment jumped in on February 19, reporting increased social media chatter about whale movements. When the Twitter crypto crowd starts buzzing, you know volatility’s coming.

Crypto analyst Lark Davis broke it down in his recent podcast. He basically said traders need to watch these whale transactions like hawks because they’re the canary in the coal mine for market sentiment shifts. “These movements often indicate shifts in market sentiment and can lead to rapid price changes,” Davis explained.

The broader crypto market cap sits below $1 trillion right now, which tells you everything about current conditions. Bear market’s been grinding on for months, and these whale movements might be the final shoe dropping. Or maybe they’re positioning for a bounce – hard to tell when everyone’s keeping their cards close.

What’s clear is that retail investors are getting squeezed. When whales start moving this much bitcoin around, smaller players usually get caught in the crossfire. The February 20 CoinDesk report showed bitcoin hovering around $25,000, but it’s dropped even further since then. Related coverage: Pepeto Rockets Higher as Solana Stumbles.

Market sentiment’s pretty much shot at this point. Most investors are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for clearer signals before jumping back in. But whales don’t wait – they act. And right now, they’re acting in ways that suggest either panic selling or strategic repositioning for whatever comes next.

The timing’s interesting too. All this whale activity coincides with the broader market selloff, which could mean they’re either causing it or reacting to it. Without more data from exchanges and analytics firms, it’s impossible to know which way the causation runs.

February 24’s price drop to $23,500 sealed the deal for many traders who were still holding out hope.

The Federal Reserve’s recent hawkish stance on interest rates has created additional pressure on risk assets like bitcoin. Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments about maintaining aggressive monetary policy through 2023 spooked institutional investors, many of whom represent the whale accounts now flooding exchanges.

Meanwhile, major mining operations like Marathon Digital and Riot Blockchain reported increased bitcoin sales in their February earnings calls. These companies hold substantial bitcoin reserves and their selling pressure adds to the whale activity CryptoQuant documented, creating a perfect storm of large-scale liquidations hitting the market simultaneously.

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Shiba Inu Price hovered near $0.0000061 on Sunday as the token moved through a brief consolidation period. The market shows SHIB approaching a critical level that may determine whether a recovery can begin after a prolonged decline. 

Recently, the meme coin has been showing a significant technical indicator, which indicates a possibility of a changing condition despite the persistent downward play. The price of Shiba Inu is hovering below a significant resistance area. A confirmed breakout above this barrier may open the door for fresh upward movement in the sessions ahead over the coming days.

Factors That Could Trigger a Bullish Surge in Shiba Inu Price A recovery across the crypto market could provide a strong tailwind. Bitcoin price continues to hold above the $67,000 level, while Ethereum price trades firmly above $1,900. Historically, the gains in the major cryptocurrencies tend to be transferred to meme tokens.

Holders are also much concerned with supply dynamics. The circulating supply of Shiba Inu remains high in comparison to some of its counterparts. The recent data indicates that the burn rate decreased by 49% in the last 24 hours.

The circulation of SHIB tokens was reduced by approximately 3.45 million. The number is small, but the number of sustained and severe burns may change the mood. The decreased supply can reinforce the stories of scarcity and stimulate the demand toward speculation.

Another factor is the development inside the Shibarium ecosystem. Shibarium is the Layer-2 scaling network of Shiba Inu. Further adoption may equate to the expansion of transactions in the ecosystem. 

Increased decentralization application, gaming, and DeFi project presence would support its utility argument. Advanced utility has the potential to slowly rebrand SHIB in ways that are not about its origins of memes.

Whale buying may pull down token supply in exchanges. That movement is sometimes an indicator of confidence by seasoned investors. Such movements are taken by the retail traders as a sign of a bullish market. Positive sentiment can be increased by on-chain information indicating active build-up.

Short-term direction can also be impacted by technical signals. Analysts are also monitoring decisive breaks above the set resistance areas. The increase in trading volumes, together with the positive chart patterns, may validate an upward trend. 

Interest in other top meme tokens, such as Dogecoin, Pepe, and Bonk, can also be inverted. In case that sector sparks, SHIB might receive revitalized speculative flows.

Is SHIB Preparing for a Breakout Above Key Resistance? The SHIB price traded at $0.00000618 as market pressure, with a 4% decrease over the past 24-hours.

The MACD was approaching the zero line and indicated weak momentum. The signal line had moved above the MACD line, indicating a weakening bullish momentum.

The RSI was 35, and this put SHIB near the oversold area. This reading indicated an increasing bearish pressure, and yet also indicated that there was a possibility of a short-term rebound.

A decisive move above $0.00000650 could open the way toward $0.0000070. Strong follow-through may target the next resistance at $0.00000750. A breakout above this level may send the future Shiba Inu outlook toward $0.000011, which remains a major upside target.

Source: SHIB/UIISDT 4-hour chart: Tradingview The inability to support the $0.0000060 could add to bearish momentum. The breakdown would result in a drop to $0.00000550. Additional weakness can challenge the lower band around $0.0000050, and buyers can make an attempt to defend.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) A strong move above resistance with rising volume may confirm bullish momentum.

Burning reduces supply, which can strengthen scarcity and bullish sentiment.

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

Shiba Inu’s (SHIB) retail obsession with "zero-killing" has hit a wall in early 2026: a $3.65 billion market capitalization, as per CoinMarketCap, that remains disconnected from any tangible ecosystem utility for the meme-inspired cryptocurrency.

While SHIB enthusiasts continue to cherish the dream of decimal shifts, the massive multi-billion valuation of the Shiba Inu coin acts as a gravitational anchor, pinning the asset to a top-30 global ranking that it increasingly struggles to justify.

589 trillion token barrier for Shiba Inu (SHIB)With a circulating supply of 589 trillion tokens, a move to even $0.01 would demand a $5.8 trillion market cap — roughly double the entire crypto market's historical peak.

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For serious capital, the price per SHIB is a psychological distraction, and the real story is a tokenomics bottleneck where the sheer mass of existing supply prevents any meaningful price appreciation.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) Market Cap by TradingViewMarket sentiment reflects this exhaustion as SHIB sits stagnant near $0.0000062 as of late February 2026, with the once much-hyped Shibarium failing to gain institutional traction or significant TVL. The network's burn mechanism remains a mathematical rounding error, removing a negligible 172 million tokens per cycle — a drop in an ocean of hundreds of trillions of Shiba Inu.

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Some sophisticated allocators may try to price SHIB based on "cap-to-activity" ratios. However, without a massive supply contraction or a black-swan utility event, the "Dogecoin killer" is essentially a multi-billion dollar legacy meme.

In a mature 2026 market, SHIB is no longer a high-upside bet as it was even two years ago in March 2024. For now, it is a saturated large-cap fighting to prove its valuation is not a rudiment of 2021’s viral fever.

SBI Holdings, one of Japan’s leading financial conglomerates, is introducing its first blockchain-based bond, offering individual investors rewards in XRP, currently the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.

The news has generated significant buzz in the XRP community, representing a notable step forward in the cryptocurrency’s growing acceptance and use in conventional financial systems.

In a Feb. 20 notice, SBI Holdings revealed that it is preparing to issue Security Token (ST) Bonds for individual investors, totaling 10 billion yen (roughly $64.6 million).

Known as SBI START Bonds, these securities are fully managed on-chain via BOOSTRY’s “ibet for Fin” platform, a dedicated enterprise blockchain solution for issuing security tokens.

Bondholders To Reap XRP Rewards According to SBI, investors in these bonds are eligible to earn rewards in XRP tokens.

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Retail investors residing in Japan, as well as companies that invest over 100,000 yen (approximately $650 million) and maintain an account with SBI VC Trade, can receive XRP rewards proportional to the size of their subscription.

The rewards, outlined on the product page as 200 yen of XRP for every 100,000 yen invested, will be distributed at issuance and on each interest payment date through 2029.

Secondary trading of the bonds is slated to begin on March 25 through the Osaka Digital Exchange’s proprietary “START” trading platform. The three-year bonds carry an indicative annual interest rate ranging from 1.85% to 2.45%, with interest paid twice a year.

SBI Holdings has maintained a long-standing relationship with Ripple since forming a partnership in 2016 and has consistently supported XRP. One of its subsidiaries has even distributed XRP directly to shareholders and facilitated XRP-based remittances between Japan and the Philippines.

According to SBI Chairman and CEO Yoshitaka Kitao, the company currently holds approximately 9% of Ripple Labs.

Ripple announced last year that it had signed a memorandum of understanding with SBI that would see the US dollar-backed RLUSD stablecoin distributed in Japan this year via SBI VC Trade, the group’s licensed crypto exchange.

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

A crypto whale has caught attention in the market after reactivating its wallet following months of dormancy.

According to on-chain data provided by Onchain Lens, this crypto wallet, which was earlier dormant for five months, awakened by withdrawing 50,000 SOL worth $4.25 million from major exchanges. The crypto whale withdrew this significant quantity of Solana from major exchanges Binance and Bybit. Withdrawing reveals a desire to buy in the case of this whale, while deposits reveal an intent to sell.

This was followed by another action by the whale, according to Onchain Lens. The whale sent the 50,000 SOL for staking rather than selling it.

"After 5 months of dormancy, a whale withdrew 50,000 $SOL ($4.25M) from Binance and Bybit, then sent it for staking," Onchain Lens reported.

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The action by the whale is in contrast to that seen before the weekend when over 1 million SOL tokens were unstaked.

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As reported, Whale Alert flagged a significant quantity of SOL stake unlocked Feb. 20. Whale Alert reported that 1,511,243 SOL worth $125,662,950 stake was unlocked in an unknown wallet.

Solana price actionAt the time of writing, Solana was down 0.38% in the last 24 hours to $84.90 as the market faced slight profit taking on Sunday.

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Solana rebounded heading into the weekend, recovering from a low of $79.58 on Feb. 19. Buyers attempted to push Solana's price above $86, however, the recent bounce lacked strength.

If the current profit taking continues, this increases the chances of a break below the $80 level. If that happens, Solana may drop to $76 and then to the Feb. 6 low of $67. Buyers are expected to return at the $67 level, as a close below it may cause Solana to drop to $50.

The first sign of strength would be a break and close above $113, which coincides with the daily MA 50. That would indicate bears are losing their grip. After that, Solana may rise toward the daily MA 200 at $160.

SBI Holdings has quietly rolled out a new on-chain bond designed to give ordinary investors direct exposure to XRP while keeping the product inside Japan’s regulated market.

Reports say the issue by the Japan-headquartered financial group totals 10 billion yen and is being recorded, issued and managed on a blockchain system rather than through the usual securities infrastructure.

SBI Starts A New Kind Of Bond Based on reports, the bonds — nicknamed the “SBI Start Bonds” in some coverage — are being tokenized on a platform called ibet for Fin, a system built by BoosTry to register and manage securities onchain.

Investors who buy into the offering receive XRP roughly at the time their purchase clears. The firm has also scheduled additional XRP benefits to be paid on interest dates stretching through 2029.

Source: SBI Group How The Trading Will Work Trading of these security tokens is set to occur on a proprietary system operated by Osaka Digital Exchange, with secondary market activity expected to begin on March 25, 2026.

Reports indicate the bonds carry a modest yield range, with some outlets citing an indicative coupon band in the low single digits — a feature that blends a fixed-income payout with crypto rewards.

Japan’s SBI Holdings has launched a ¥10 billion ($64.5M) on-chain bond issuance that rewards investors with $XRP. https://t.co/X9U0nW3sd2 pic.twitter.com/b7hwHJTiEG

— 𝗕𝗮𝗻𝗸XRP (@BankXRP) February 21, 2026

Who Can Get The XRP Eligibility rules are strict. Reports note that holders must be domestic residents and must hold an account with SBI VC Trade to collect the XRP benefit; there’s a procedural deadline for completing receipt steps by mid-May.

In short, this is not an open global giveaway — the offer is aimed at onshore retail investors inside Japan and tied to local account requirements.

XRPUSD currently trading at $1.40. Chart: TradingView Market Reaction And Possible Effects Based on reports and market commentary, the structure could nudge demand for XRP because the issuer needs to supply the token for distribution and future payouts.

Some market watchers point out that while the initial sum — about $64.5 million by rough conversion — is limited against the size of global crypto markets, the product matters more for what it represents: a mainstream financial group packaging a digital asset into a regulated bond product. That may make other Japanese firms think about similar moves.

Featured image from Trade Brains, chart from TradingView

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Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT | MSFT Price Prediction) has integrated artificial intelligence (AI) into its products more extensively than most of its peers, with tools like Copilot embedded across its software suite and its Azure AI infrastructure sold out in key regions.Bullish analyses often focus on its potential to monetize Copilot through paid upgrades, but current adoption remains low at 3.3% of its user base. 

The market, though, appears skeptical, with Microsoft stock down 17% year-to-date and a drop of about 26% from its 52-week high around $555 per share. Shares now trade at a price-to-earnings ratio under 25, equivalent to where it traded back in 2015 when ratios hovered in the mid-20s. Considering the potential its AI integration holds, does Microsoft deserve this decade-low multiple?

Copilot’s Reach in a Massive User Base Microsoft 365 Copilot is available to over 450 million commercial paid seats — or the number of authorized users or devices allowed to access a software application — providing a built-in platform for AI features like document summarization and data analysis in apps such as Word and Excel. This entrenchment positions Copilot for widespread use, with 15 million paid seats reported in January, reflecting 160% year-over-year growth. Azure, Microsoft’s cloud service, also incorporates Copilot capabilities, enhancing its appeal for enterprise workloads.

Azure’s AI infrastructure is experiencing high demand, with capacity sold out as demand backlog has doubled to $625 billion, partly driven by OpenAI-related commitments. Azure revenue grew 39% in the fourth quarter. 

However, the sold-out status stems more from supply constraints than unlimited demand. These include power shortages, equipment delays, and physical limits on data center expansion, with Microsoft acknowledging that constraints will persist at least through the end of its fiscal year in June. Such limitations could enable competitors like Amazon‘s (NASDAQ:AMZN) AWS and Google Cloud to capture market share by fulfilling orders faster in underserved areas, potentially slowing Microsoft’s ability to convert its backlog into revenue at the desired pace.

Copilot’s Strengths Versus Persistent Challenges Copilot’s strengths include seamless integration with Microsoft’s ecosystem, enabling contextual AI assistance that boosts productivity in enterprise settings. It has tens of millions of active users across platforms, with features like meeting recaps in Teams showing measurable time savings. Paid adoption — while low at 3.3% of the 450 million base — generates revenue at $30 per user monthly (or lower for some business plans), potentially scaling to billions annually if conversion improves.

Yet weaknesses persist, including output inconsistencies and user retention issues. Surveys indicate that while many users initially prefer Copilot due to its accessibility, retention drops significantly after testing alternatives. Branding confusion and intrusive prompts further hinder satisfaction. Copilot monetization potential exists through upgrades, but current figures indicate slow progress, with far more users on free tiers than paid, leading to discounts of 40% to 60% in large deals suggesting pricing pressure to drive volume.

Competition also poses headwinds, with Copilot’s U.S. paid subscriber share dropping 39% from 18.8% last July to 11.5% in January. At the same time, Google Gemini has gained ground, and OpenAI’s ChatGPT holds a dominant position in broader AI usage. These rivals offer stronger performance in creative and research tasks, eroding Copilot’s edge. Capacity constraints in Azure could further limit growth by delaying AI deployments and new feature rollouts that rely on cloud infrastructure.

Key Takeaways If Microsoft can monetize Copilot by increasing paid adoption and resolving its capacity needs through its planned infrastructure investments, today’s stock price appears undervalued considering its growth prospects. Its enterprise entrenchment provides a buffer, granting Microsoft more time to address quality, trust, and agility gaps that would challenge smaller firms. 

However, the market may not be wrong to assign this valuation until Microsoft demonstrates progress in these areas, particularly as competition intensifies and capacity issues constrain near-term execution.

SentinelOne and Sirius XM appear significantly mispriced relative to their long-term growth potential.

Broad market sell-offs often create attractive entry opportunities for retail investors. After the technology sector slump of early 2026, several fundamentally strong companies are trading at far more attractive valuation levels than they were just months ago.

Image source: Getty Images.

For investors who have $1,000 that they are ready to put to work in the market now, opening small positions in SentinelOne (S 4.35%) and Sirius XM (SIRI 0.10%) could be a smart long-term move. Here's why.

SentinelOne With over $1 billion in annual recurring revenue and a recent shift to positive non-GAAP (adjusted) net income and free-cash-flow margins, SentinelOne looks like a strong business. Yet the stock is down by about 43% over the past year, and trades at only 4.7 times sales. That valuation is significantly lower than those of leading cybersecurity peers such as Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike, and Zscaler, which are trading at price-to-sales (P/S) multiples of 12.6, 22.3, and 9.3, respectively.

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While SentinelOne is priced as if its growth story is fading, its revenue visibility suggests otherwise. The company exited the third quarter of fiscal 2025 with a remaining performance obligation (a measure of contracted backlog) of around $1.3 billion. It has also meaningfully expanded its offerings beyond endpoint security (solutions protecting individual devices). Nearly half of its third-quarter bookings came from non-endpoint security products such as Singularity AI SIEM, cloud security, and Purple AI.

Moreover, in the quarter, bookings for SentinelOne's data solutions, which include Singularity AI SIEM, Singularity Data Lake, and AI-driven analytics and automation, grew by a triple-digit percentage year over year. Singularity AI SIEM (software that collects and analyzes security data across an organization to detect threats) is helping customers replace older, more expensive monitoring tools. Purple AI, an AI-powered assistant that automates threat investigation and response using natural language queries, is also helping build a sticky client base for SentinelOne. Purple AI reported an over 40% attach rate in the third quarter, implying that 4 in every 10 customers buying the company's core solutions are also buying PurpleAI.

Considering its improving margins, strong backlog, and broadening AI-driven platform, SentinelOne's fundamentals appear stronger than its valuation would suggest.

Sirius XM The leading subscription-first audio entertainment platform in North America, Sirius XM enjoys a unique distribution advantage. Its satellite radios come preinstalled in the majority of the new vehicles sold in the U.S., offering the company's flagship Sirius XM subscription entertainment service directly at the point of in-car listening. Beyond its core subscription business, Sirius XM also operates Pandora, an ad-supported streaming and podcast network, and is expanding its digital advertising and adtech operations. This multipronged business model supports high recurring revenues and gives it an exceptionally sticky client base. Currently, Sirius XM  has about 33 million subscribers, and reaches a total of about 170 million listeners.

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Sirius XM is also demonstrating impressive free-cash-flow resilience. In 2025, its free cash flow was $1.26 billion, exceeding its guidance by over $100 million. The company expects free cash flow of $1.35 billion in 2026 and $1.5 billion in 2027. That kind of cash durability helps a company weather volatile market environments.

Yet Sirius XM trades at just 0.8 times sales while also paying a dividend that yields 5.1% at the current share price. Hence, this stock appears too attractive to miss in 2026. 

Nvidia could deliver stronger-than-expected growth this year thanks to Meta Platforms' latest commitment.

Meta Platforms (META +1.69%) is on track to spend big on artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure this year, which isn't surprising as the company is reaping the benefits of integrating AI into different areas of its business.

Meta management announced in January that it will increase its capital spending to a range of $115 billion to $135 billion in 2026, up from last year's outlay of $72.2 billion. The tech giant has joined the ranks of other major cloud computing companies poised to spend big on AI hardware this year.

Meta says that its increased capital investment will support its Superintelligence Labs division and core business operations. And now, the latest announcement from the hyperscaler suggests that Nvidia (NVDA +0.94%) will be a big winner from the company's increased outlay.

Let's look at the reasons why.

Image source: Getty Images.

Meta Platforms has expanded its Nvidia partnership On Feb. 17, Meta and Nvidia announced that they are entering into a "multiyear, multigenerational strategic partnership" to build AI infrastructure. Meta will deploy Nvidia's Grace central processing units (CPUs), "millions of Nvidia Blackwell and Rubin GPUs," and Ethernet switches in its hyperscale data centers to support both AI training and inference applications.

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Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg added that the company will be using Nvidia's upcoming Vera Rubin data center chips to power its personal superintelligence platform. This isn't surprising, as Nvidia claims that its Vera Rubin platform can reduce the cost of AI inference by tenfold and the number of graphics processing units (GPUs) needed to train models by fourfold.

Additionally, the power efficiency of Arm-based Grace CPUs has led Meta to go for the first-ever large-scale Grace-only deployment. All this is great news for Nvidia, which has entered 2026 with a solid order backlog that should lead to stronger growth in its data center business. Meta's announcement that it will purchase "millions" of chips from Nvidia is likely to boost its order book, setting the company up for potentially stronger growth in 2026.

It is worth noting that Nvidia's foundry partner, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, is already on track to significantly boost its manufacturing capacity in 2026. Nvidia, therefore, should be able to fulfill a nice chunk of its huge backlog and the new orders that it is receiving, leading to a stronger-than-anticipated spike in its revenue and earnings this year.

Stronger growth could lead to terrific upside Analysts are forecasting a 53% increase in Nvidia's revenue in fiscal 2027, which has just begun, to $327 billion. What's more, its earnings are estimated to jump by 65% this year to $7.75 per share. Importantly, analysts increased their fiscal 2027 earnings estimate for Nvidia in recent weeks, and it won't be surprising to see this figure heading higher following Meta's announcement.

Data by YCharts.

Assuming Nvidia ends the current fiscal year with a bottom line of $7.80 per share and trades at 32 times earnings (in line with the tech-laden Nasdaq-100 index's earnings multiple), its stock price could jump to $247. That suggests potential gains of 32%, which is why buying this AI stock while it trades at an attractive 24 times forward earnings seems like the smart move, given the potential upside.

Harsh Chauhan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Meta Platforms, Nvidia, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) is flashing major long-term warning signals after a sharp and aggressive selloff pushed the stock into a critical technical zone.

According to insights from TradingShot in a February 20 TradingView post, the recent decline followed a sell signal issued on January 27 when shares were trading at $481.26, with a $410 downside target.

That target was reached almost immediately on the next weekly candle, highlighting the intensity of the selling pressure now gripping the stock.

Notably, Microsoft is trading at $397.29 after falling 7.67% on the latest monthly candle, decisively breaking below the $410 level and now testing a key long-term support zone.

MSFT stock price analysis. Source: TradingView According to the analyst, the focus is on the 50-month moving average (MA), which has acted as Microsoft’s primary structural support since December 2011 and sparked bullish reversals in November 2022 and April 2025. 

MSFT stock key targets  A confirmed monthly close below this level would mark a major technical breakdown. If it fails, the next key support lies at the 100-month moving average near $300. That area also aligns with the 0.618 to 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the entire post-2008 rally and would represent the largest correction within the long-term upward channel established since the financial crisis.

At the same time, MSFT’s monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is testing the crucial 44 support level, which has held since June 2010. A break below would open the path toward the 30 oversold threshold, a move that could coincide with price sliding toward the 100-month moving average around $300.

The outlook compounds matters for Microsoft stock, which has declined roughly 15% year-to-date in 2026, making it the weakest performer among the Magnificent Seven group.

The pullback accelerated after the company’s fiscal Q2 earnings in late January. Despite beating estimates with 17% revenue growth to $81.3 billion and strong cloud performance, a $37.5 billion capital expenditure figure, largely for AI data centers and GPUs, sparked concerns about delayed returns and potential margin pressure.

Analysts note that while demand for Microsoft’s AI and cloud services remains robust, the heavy spending has fueled skepticism. Some investors, including major funds, have trimmed positions amid fears that AI monetization may lag behind buildout costs.

Featured image via Shutterstock

Tesla isn't so much reacting to events in the electric vehicle (EV) market as it is leading them.

It's a misconception that Tesla (TSLA 0.01%) is moving away from electric vehicles (EVs), because all the evidence suggests the company intends to realize the vision once shared by other leading automakers. They are responding to events and a failed strategy, but Tesla is continuing on its long-held aspirations. Here's why.

Tesla doubles down on EVs One bear case for Tesla has it that the company is failing in its core EV market, and CEO Elon Musk is pushing robotaxis, and Optimus robots for that matter, to try and deflect from its declining EV sales, as it shifts away from an EV market it's finding it increasingly difficult to compete with.

Image source: Tesla.

In reality, management has just committed to a mammoth $20 billion capital spending program, which includes investment in its lithium refinery in Corpus Christi, Texas, a lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery factory in Sparks, Nevada, and the Gigafactory in Texas to begin Cybercab production. The lithium refinery will supply EV production, and the LFP factory could be used to supply LFP batteries for Cybercab and other Tesla EVs.

These are massive investments made to support Tesla's vision of where the EV market is heading. But here's the thing: It's a vision that much of the rest of the industry once promised.

Automakers and robotaxis In 2019, Ford's CEO Jim Farley told investors to prepare for a "launch of a commercial self-driving service in 2021," only to back off investing in it in 2022. Meanwhile, General Motors only abandoned its robotaxi development in late 2024.

There's a reason automakers have thrown billions into developing a robotaxi: Simply put, the most cost-effective use of an EV is to leverage its lower per-mile cost advantage by running it more, and that's even more cost-effective if it's a robotaxi.

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It's not so much that Tesla is walking away from EVs, but more like the legacy automakers have been forced to walk away from robotaxis and are refining their EV strategy in response to weak sales performance. The reality is that the slew of EV models that hit the market, and helped cause multibillion-dollar writedowns ($19.5 billion at Ford, $6 billion at GM, and $27 billion at Stellantis) are a demonstration of the legacy automakers' failures in the EV market. Only GM established a foothold in the U.S. EV market (about 13% share compared to Tesla's 46% share). , but that could decline as it resets its EV strategy.

Image source: Tesla.

Where next for Tesla? While legacy automakers are resetting their strategies to produce more targeted, lower-cost EV models, Tesla's focus is fundamentally different. While it's also introducing new, lower-cost variants of its Model Y and Model 3, while discontinuing its luxury Model S and Model X, the company's main aim is to build out its robotaxi business, including Cybercab.

There's no guarantee it will be successful, but the key point here is that Tesla's strategy is consistent with its purpose and belief in the EV market, and also with the aims its peers sought but failed to achieve.

Lee Samaha has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends General Motors and Stellantis. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

One of the nation’s largest wholesale mortgage lenders reported a significant insider sale amid a year of declining share prices.

Mat Ishbia, President and CEO of UWM Holdings Corporation (UWMC 3.85%), reported the indirect sale of 1,898,622 shares of Common Stock across three open-market transactions from Feb. 10 through Feb. 12, 2026, for nearly $9 million as disclosed in the SEC Form 4 filing.

Transaction summaryMetricValueShares sold (indirect)1,898,622Transaction value$8,999,468 millionPost-transaction shares (direct)279,989Post-transaction shares (indirect)1,793,651Post-transaction value (direct ownership)$1.32 millionTransaction value based on SEC Form 4 weighted average purchase price ($4.74); post-transaction value based on Feb. 12, 2026 market close ($4.70).

Key questionsHow does the size of this sale compare to Ishbia's historical transactions?
The sale of 1,898,622 shares is slightly above the recent median insider sale of 1,789,068 shares from September 2025 to Feb. 12, 2026, but the percentage of holdings impacted (47.80%) is substantially higher, reflecting a much smaller remaining capacity.Were these trades discretionary or pre-scheduled?
All shares were sold under a Rule 10b5-1 pre-arranged trading plan by SFS Corp, removing discretionary timing and aligning with routine liquidity management practices.

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Company overviewMetricValueRevenue (TTM)$2.70 billionNet income (TTM)$16.89 millionDividend yield8.66%1-year price change-29.57%* 1-year price change calculated using Feb. 21, 2026 as the reference date.

Company snapshotUWM Holdings Corporation is a leading mortgage lender in the United States, specializing in the origination of residential loans. The company operates through a broker-focused wholesale channel to originate mortgage loans, primarily focusing on conforming and government loans.

What this transaction means for investorsIshbia has been selling thousands of shares throughout the last two months, but all were part of a 10b5-1 trading plan, so they were all sales scheduled ahead of time. Other executives have also been selling shares either through their own trading plan or insider incentive programs. It wouldn’t be surprising if we see the CEO sell more shares within the next few days.

UWMC share prices have been struggling, having fallen nearly 50% over the last five years (as of Feb. 21, 2026). And with the mortgage loan market experiencing low loan volume despite Fed rate cuts lowering loan rates in recent months, that struggle could very well continue for the foreseeable future. Investors may want to keep an eye on how the company does in its Q4 FY 2025 earnings report, which comes out on Feb. 25, 2026, and may help indicate the direction financials are headed for the next fiscal year.

Adé Hennis has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.