Market Signal Briefing

Bitcoin and WW3: 5 Key Indicators as BTC Eyes Global Liquidity Surge

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Bitcoin (BTC) acts as a barometer for global fear, but the latest geopolitical flare-up, which has many fearing for WW3, has failed to break the asset’s bullish prospects.

While headlines scream conflict, Bitcoin is holding the $60,000 line, eyeing a liquidity-driven breakout rather than a capitulation event.

Traders are now pricing in resilience, looking past the initial volatility to the underlying supply mechanics that favor the bulls.

The market climaxed with a sharp dip near $63,000 over the weekend before buyers stepped in, rejecting lower lows.

This price action suggests the market is desensitizing to headline risk, shifting focus back to the monetary drivers that typically fuel Q4 rallies. It is a clash of narratives: geopolitical uncertainty versus undeniable on-chain strength.

Key Takeaways:

Bitcoin Exchange Reserves have dropped to levels not seen since 2018, creating a significant supply shock as demand creates a floor. Spot BTC ETF Inflows are absorbing retail panic selling, with institutional players treating dips as accumulation opportunities. Global Liquidity M2 is expanding again, historically a primary driver for crypto asset repricing regardless of news cycles. Indicator 1: Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Signal Supply ShockThe most critical on-chain metric currently is the rapid depletion of Bitcoin Exchange Reserves. According to data from CryptoQuant, reserves have fallen to approximately 2.6 million BTC, the lowest level since 2018. This is a structural supply squeeze that cannot be ignored.

Source: CryptoQuantWhen coins leave exchanges, they move to cold storage or custody solutions, effectively removing them from the immediate sellable supply.

The implication is straightforward: fewer coins available for sale means it takes less buy volume to push prices higher. In previous cycles, sharp declines in exchange balances often preceded supply shock rallies.

This drain on liquidity suggests that while weak hands are selling into headline fear, long-term holders are moving assets off the ledger. We are witnessing a transfer of wealth from impatient retail traders to high-conviction entities who understand the scarcity mechanics of the halving year.

Discover: The best crypto to diversify your portfolio with

Indicator 2: Bitcoin (BTC) ETF Inflows vs. Spot SellingInstitutional demand continues to act as a massive buffer against spot market volatility. Despite the bearish sentiment on social media, Spot BTC ETF Inflows tell a different story.

Recent weeks have seen net inflows effectively neutralizing the selling pressure from short-term holders, with the last week generated net inflows of $787.3 million, according to data by SoSoValue.

So, funds like BlackRock’s IBIT continue to attract capital even as price action chops sideways. This divergence of falling price against rising inflows is a classic accumulation signal. Institutional accumulation is not slowing down; it is accelerating during dips.

Adding to this institutional bedrock, major financial players are deepening their infrastructure. Morgan Stanley has moved to hold client crypto directly, signaling that the smart money thesis remains focused on long-term adoption rather than short-term geopolitical noise.

Indicator 3: How Bitcoin is Breaking the Downtrend Despite WW3 FearsTechnically, Bitcoin is respecting critical levels. The weekend dip found support before reaching the psychological $60,000 barrier, a level many traders had eyed for aggressive longs.

Trader CrypNuevo noted on X that a trip to anywhere between $60,000 and $61,000 would be a prime long entry, but the market front-ran that level, showing eagerness to buy.

So my strategy for this week is:

Wait for Monday stock market opening reaction:

• If it's a bloodbath (unlikely imo), then I'll long Bitcoin around $61k-$60k ahead of de-escalation talk news.

• If it's a slight decline, sideways or pump, I won't long until later in the week.

— CrypNuevo 🔨 (@CrypNuevo) March 1, 2026 A clean break above $70,000 would invalidate the downtrending structure that has plagued the chart since March.

Support at $60,000 is the line in the sand; lose that, and the conversation shifts to $55,000 or lower. If Bitcoin can hold the line, the path back to six figures by Summer remains open.

Indicator 4: Global Liquidity and Central Bank EasingBitcoin is, above all else, a liquidity sponge. The current expansion of Global Liquidity M2, a measure of global liquidity that takes into account cash, checking and savings deposits, money market securities, and other near-cash assets, is the macro tailwind that bearish traders are overlooking.

As central banks from the ECB to the Fed signal or enact rate cuts, the cost of capital decreases, forcing money out of risk-free assets and into growth vehicles.

Historically, Bitcoin’s parabolic runs align perfectly with cycles of M2 expansion. We are currently in the early stages of a global easing cycle. While inflation data may cause temporary pauses in the Fed’s roadmap, the broader trend is clear: money printers are warming up.

Source: Fidelity Digital AssetsGiven the historic lag between M2 liquidity expansion cycles and Bitcoin bull markets, the injections hitting the system now will likely reflect in asset prices in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025.

Traders betting on a crash are effectively betting against the central bank liquidity cycle, a wager that rarely pays off in the crypto markets.

Discover: The best crypto to buy now

Indicator 5: Bitcoin Sees Geopolitical Resilience Despite WW3 FearsThe market’s reaction to recent Middle East tensions reinforces the “digital gold” narrative, albeit with high beta volatility.

While the initial reaction was a sell-off, Bitcoin rebounded swiftly after the shock, erasing nearly all losses within 48 hours. This V-shaped recovery is a hallmark of a resilient bull market structure.

Analyst consensus is shifting away from “World War Three” scenarios toward a contained conflict narrative, limiting the downside risk for risk assets.

However, the connection between energy prices and crypto remains tight. As oil prices react to Iran tensions, inflation expectations could tick up, complicating the Fed’s pivot. Yet, Bitcoin has shrugged off this correlation for now, trading more on idiosyncratic crypto flows than petrodollar dynamics.

Data from CoinGlass shows that the initial dip flushed out over-leveraged longs, resetting open interest to healthier levels. The market is now lighter, cleaner, and ready for organic price discovery without the weight of excessive leverage.

Ultimately, with institutional accumulation quietly putting a floor under price and Bitcoin Exchange Reserves draining, the path of least resistance appears to be upwards despite WW3 fears. The Bitcoin market has already priced in the conflict shock. Now it waits for the liquidity surge.

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.

GM!

Today’s top news:

Crypto majors dip then rebound amidst Iran War; BTC at $66k HYPE wins the weekend, rallying 20%+ to $30 while HIP-3 sees record OI Bitcoin ETFs saw $787M in net inflows last week US declares Anthropic as supply chain risk after negotiations on how the US could use Claud fell through Paradigm announced a new $1.5B fund focused on AI & Robotics 🪖 Bitcoin Crashes, Rebounds During Early Hours of Iran WarBitcoin was the only large liquid asset that anyone could sell when the bombs started dropping. And it only dropped 3%.

📌 What Happened

Early Saturday, US and Israeli forces launched coordinated missile strikes on Iran targeting nuclear, missile, and naval infrastructure.

President Trump confirmed “major combat operations” and urged Iranians to overthrow the regime.

Iran retaliated with missiles targeting Israel, Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, and US bases in Iraq. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz declared a nationwide state of emergency.

Iranian state media later confirmed that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the strikes, along with 40 senior officials.

Crypto markets absorbed it all in real time.

BTC dropped from roughly $65,500 to $63,000 within hours. The total crypto market cap fell by $128B with $449M in longs liquidated.

Then, as Iranian state media confirmed Khamenei’s death, BTC shot back to $68,196 in a major recovery rally.

As of this morning, it’s back to $66,300.

Meanwhile, Hyperliquid was the surprising crypto winner of the weekend. Its HIP-3 markets set a new record in open interest, and Hyperliquid was featured in Bloomberg as the primary marketplace for those looking to trade the war.

The HYPE token rallied from $26 to $32 through weekend trading.

🗣️ What They’re Saying

“Bitcoin is the only large liquid asset trading 24/7, so it absorbed all the selling pressure that would normally spread across equities, bonds, and commodities. The real price discovery happens Monday when US equity markets and Bitcoin ETFs reopen.” - Hayden Hughes, Tokenize Capital

“With a lot of the leverage already cleared out and exhausted sellers, there’s only so much impact macro events can have.” - Justin d’Anethan, Arctic Digital

“Where price discovery happens when TradExchanges sleep.” - Arthur Hayes, responding to Hyperliquid’s weekend volume surge

🧠 Why It Matters

Fear and Greed was sitting at 14. ETF flows had flipped to net sellers in February.

And then the biggest geopolitical shock in years hits on a Saturday.

BTC dropped less than 4%. That was the signal.

Heading into April 2024, when Iran first fired missiles at Israel, BTC dropped about 6%. Then over subsequent months it broke to new all-time highs. The June 2025 strike on Iranian nuclear sites pushed BTC below $100K briefly before it ripped.

The pattern is consistent: war shocks trigger sell-offs, then the macro digestion reverses them. The question this time is whether the 50%-off ATHs and bear market make it different.

Two things to monitor: the Strait of Hormuz and the ETF bid.

If Iran’s IRGC retaliates by threatening the strait, through which about 20% of global oil passes daily, you get an inflation shock that would keep the Fed on hold indefinitely and crush risk assets broadly, crypto included. Goldman Sachs is already predicting Oil will hit $100/barrel if this war goes on for 4 weeks as Trump said it might on Sunday.

On the other hand, if Khamenei’s death accelerates regime destabilization and traders read it as shortening the conflict, the relief bid continues.

Monday’s ETF flows will be the first signal.

The Hyperliquid story is the other one to watch longer term.

Its HIP-3 open interest (where TradFi assets can be trading around the clock) hit an all-time high above $1.1B. Hyperliquid infrastructure is becoming the 24/7 layer for all asset classes, not just tokens.

And it was the big winner of the weekend.

Now we wait for what’s in store this week…

🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets Crypto majors fell and then rebounded on the initial Iran strike and have levelled off; BTC even at $66.3k; ETH -2% at $1,950; SOL -1% at $84 Morpho (+5%), NEAR (+5%) and JUP (+3%) led top movers Oil is up 8% premarket this morning with the Straight of Hormuz closure Gold (+3%) and Silver (+2%) are both rallying amist the war HYPE rallied 13% over the weekend to $31 as Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest set an all-time high above $1.1B and was featured in a Bloomberg headline about weekend markets The Department of War labeled Anthropic a “supply chain risk” and directed federal agencies to stop using its AI tools after negoations to use Claude for the Iran war fell through Iran’s crypto mining network is being monitored, as the regime operated between 2-5% of global Bitcoin hashrate using subsidized electricity Trump Media is weighing spinning off Truth Social into a separate public entity called SpinCo, which would merge with Texas Ventures III South Korea’s National Tax Service accidentally published unredacted Ledger seed phrases in a press release Minnesota lawmakers are considering a full statewide ban on crypto ATMs via HF 3642, which would make it the first US state to do so. Ripple introduced new funding routes for XRP Ledger development, including a new FinTech Builder Programme and university partnerships Corporate Treasuries & ETFs

The Bitcoin ETFs saw $787M in net inflows last week, while the ETH ETFs put up $80.5M in net inflows Trump Media's 2,000 BTC transfer, originally reported as a sale, was actually BTC pledged as collateral in a hedge structure with rehypothecation rights Meme Coin Tracker

Meme majors were mostly red; DOGE -2%, SHIB -3%, PEPE -2%, TRUMP -1%, PENGU -1%, SPX -4%, FARTCOIN -2% WAR (+150%), Jellybean (+50%), PysopAnime (+30%) and HODL (+50%) led notable movers 💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker One Polymarket trader banked $385K betting on a US-Israel Iran strike date every day since February 8, losing repeatedly until Saturday morning Meanwhile, Kalshi caught heat for not resolving its Khamenei market, leading to several comments on the matter from founder Tarek Mansour Crypto VC Paradigm announced a new $1.5B fund foducsed on AI, robotics and other frontier tech Backpack exchange explained the legal engineering behind its token-to-equity program, stating that the conversion right won’t attach to the token itself, it’ll attach to a VIP program requiring one year of staking and active trading 🚚 What is happening in NFTs? NFT leaders were mostly flat over the weekend; Punks even at 29.9 ETH, Pudgy +1% at 4.5 ETH, BAYC -1% at 6 ETH; Hypurr’s -2% at 460 HYPE CyberKongz (+36%) led top movers Daily Debrief NewsletterStart every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.

XRP price continues to trade under sustained pressure on the daily timeframe, with price action firmly locked inside a descending channel that has guided the broader correction since last year’s peak near $3.50.

At the time of writing, XRP is hovering around the $1.34 region, sitting just above a critical psychological and structural support zone near $1.00–$1.10. The key question for March: Is XRP price stabilizing, or is the $1 level becoming vulnerable?

Daily Structure Remains Bearish While Momentum Signals Weak RecoveryPrice has consistently printed lower highs and lower lows within a well-defined descending channel. Each attempt to rally toward the upper boundary has been rejected, reinforcing the dominant bearish structure. Recent price action shows XRP breaking toward the lower half of the channel again after failing to sustain a recovery above $2.00 earlier this year.

Until the upper channel resistance is reclaimed, momentum remains tilted to the downside.

The daily RSI is hovering below the neutral 50 level, currently sitting in the high-30s to low-40s range. This suggests bearish momentum still dominates, although the market is not deeply oversold. There was a recent RSI dip toward oversold territory, followed by a mild bounce. However, that recovery has lacked follow-through.

OBV (On-Balance Volume) continues to trend lower, indicating that buying pressure has not meaningfully reversed the broader distribution phase. Sustained accumulation is not yet visible on volume. In simple terms, buyers are present but not aggressive.

Why is the $1 Level Technically Important for the XRP Price Rally?The $1 zone carries both psychological and structural significance. Historically, round-number levels often act as magnets for liquidity. On this chart, $1 aligns closely with the lower boundary of the descending channel projected forward. If XRP continues drifting lower within the channel, a test of $1 becomes increasingly likely in March.

However, a clean breakdown below $1 would require increased selling volume and a decisive daily close beneath that support, which has not occurred. Only a break above the descending channel resistance or a daily close back above the $1.6 to $1.7 region to establish a higher high could stabilize the price.   

Conclusion—What To Expect in March 2026?XRP’s daily chart remains technically bearish heading into March 2026. The descending channel structure is intact, and momentum indicators do not yet show confirmed accumulation. The most probable short-term scenario is continued movement within the descending channel, with $1 acting as the next major test zone. If $1 holds, XRP could attempt another relief bounce toward the mid-channel region near $1.60. If it fails, the breakdown could trigger a deeper liquidity sweep.

 Whether XRP stabilizes above it or loses it will likely define the tone for the coming weeks.

Until the channel breaks, caution remains warranted.

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Shiba Inu (CRYPTO: SHIB) has slipped to the 27th spot by market cap after falling 22% over the past month, but recent on-chain signals suggest bulls may be stepping in near key support. Cryptocurrency Ticker Price Market Cap 7-Day Trend Shiba Inu (CRYPTO: SHIB) $0.055467 $3.2 billion -12.2% Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) $0.09142 $15.4 billion -6.2% Pepe (CRYPTO: PEPE) $0.053453 $1.4 billion -17.6% Trader Notes: Crypto chart analyst Ali Martinez said SHIB appears to be building momentum and could be entering an acceleration phase.

DeepSeek, China’s most famous artificial intelligence (AI) platform, appears almost as bullish for Bitcoin (BTC) in 2026 as some of the top U.S. and British financial institutions.

Specifically, BTC’s late 2025 and early 2026 performance has led many traders and analysts to suspect a new ‘winter’ for cryptocurrencies is imminent. 

Despite this and despite the massive drop from Bitcoin’s October highs above $125,000 to its press time price of $66,013, the digital asset has remained resilient above approximately $65,000.

Bitcoin price one-month chart. Source: Finbold Such a state of affairs has, arguably, lent additional credence to the relatively bullish forecasts issued by institutions like Bernstein and Standard Chartered and compelled Finbold to ask DeepSeek about where BTC might find itself by the end of 2026.

DeepSeek’s 2026 Bitcoin price forecast for the end of the year After swiftly assessing the recent happenings in the cryptocurrency market, the AI opined that early 2026 is ‘one of its most challenging periods in recent history.’ 

To back such a statement, DeepSeek reflected on Bitcoin’s performance but also noted the deluge of potentially adverse developments, such as the escalating geopolitical instability.

DeepSeek analyzes Bitcoin’s situation at start of March 2026. Source: Finbold & DeepSeek Furthermore, after claiming to have done technical analysis (TA), the AI forecasted that the prevailing early 2026 setup could lead to a sharp plunge, setting the likely bottom close to $41,000.

Still, DeepSeek added that following such a downturn, the cryptocurrency market is very likely to enter an accumulation phase, which, paired with the ‘historically reflationary Q4 period,’ will likely lead to an end-of-the-year price of $100,000 for Bitcoin.

DeepSeek’s late 2026 Bitcoin price forecast. Source: Finbold & DeepSeek Thus, the AI estimated that the BTC could hit its 2026 bottom sometime in the second or third (Q3) quarter, but then enjoy strong accumulation and, arguably, an explosive rally given the relatively short timeframes, ultimately landing at about $100,000.

Featured image via Shutterstock

Solana Price Sets Up for a 5% Bounce — Here Is How It Could Turn Into a Rally Prefer us on Google

Solana nears $87 barrier that could either stop bounce or ignite rallyTraders heavily short Solana; but this imbalance could fuel upside insteadSpeculators are quietly returning — just like before Solana’s last sudden reboundSolana price is trading near $83 after falling about 4% in the past 24 hours. That makes it weaker than the broader crypto market during the same period. But the bigger picture tells a different story. Solana is still up nearly 8% over the past seven days. That makes it stronger than many major cryptocurrencies.

This strength is not without reason. It comes as multiple bounce signals begin flashing together. These signals suggest Solana’s price may be preparing for a short-term recovery. The setup now points toward a possible 5% bounce. More importantly, if one key level breaks, this bounce could grow into a larger rally.

Solana Price Structure Shows Bounce Setup While RSI Lends SupportThe first signal comes from Solana’s 12-hour price chart. The chart shows an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. This pattern forms when a downtrend begins losing strength. It often appears before rebounds.

Solana already reacted once to this structure. After forming the right shoulder on February 28, the price bounced nearly 15%. This confirmed that buyers are active at lower levels. But the recovery slowed again near a familiar barrier.

That barrier is the 20-period EMA. This line tracks short-term trend direction. Solana has failed multiple times at this level since late January. Each rejection pushed the price lower again. Only once, on February 25, Solana broke above it cleanly. That move triggered an immediate 11% rally. Now the same setup is forming again.

SOL Price Structure: TradingViewWant more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

At the same time, momentum is quietly improving. The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, a momentum indicator, is showing bullish divergence. This happens when price makes lower lows, but RSI makes higher lows. It signals that selling pressure is weakening.

Between January 31 and March 1, the Solana price made a lower low. But RSI made a higher low. This suggests sellers are losing control.

SOL Price Divergence: TradingViewFor this signal to stay valid, Solana must hold above the recent swing low of $81. If that level holds, the immediate bounce structure remains intact.

But price patterns alone do not create rallies. For this bounce to actually play out, market positioning must support the move. That support is now visible in liquidation data.

Short Liquidation Cluster Near $85 Could Accelerate the BounceThe liquidation data shows traders are heavily betting against Solana, with about 63% of total leverage (one-day) on Binance positioned on the bearish side. Short liquidation leverage is now around $66 million. Long liquidation leverage is only about $39 million. This means most leveraged traders expect the price to fall. This imbalance creates squeeze risk.

If the Solana price rises instead, given global concerns and the resulting volatility, short sellers will be forced to close their positions. These forced exits create additional buying pressure. The largest liquidation cluster sits near $85.

Liquidation Map: CoinglassSolana is currently trading at $83. That means the price is very close to this trigger zone. If Solana reaches $85 ( a level also present on the technical chart, highlighted later), liquidations could accelerate the move. This increases the probability of a bounce toward the next resistance.

But liquidation squeezes alone rarely sustain recoveries. For the bounce to hold, actual buyers must also step in. On-chain data now shows that this process may already be starting.

Short-Term Holders Are Returning — A Pattern Often Seen Before BouncesShort-term holders have started increasing their positions again, as seen via the HODL Waves metric. This metric segregates SOL cohorts by time held.

The 1-week to 1-month cohort increased its supply share from 6.60% to 7.22% since February 26. At the same time, the 1-day to 1-week cohort increased from 5.19% to 6.22%.

SOL Holders: GlassnodeThese groups are important because they often enter near local bottoms. They typically position themselves before rebounds.

The same behavior appeared on February 24. At that time, their accumulation was followed by a rally from $79 to $88, an 11% rally within one day. Their return now suggests traders are again preparing for a bounce.

Short-Term Holders Have A History: GlassnodeBut even when buyers return, every recovery still faces a final test. For Solana, that test now sits at one specific resistance level.

The $87 Level Now Decides Whether Solana Price Bounces or RalliesThe most important resistance level now sits near $87. This level is critical for two reasons.

First, it aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. This level often acts as major technical resistance during recoveries. Second, on-chain cost basis data shows a large supply cluster here. Over 11.7 million SOL was accumulated in the $86 to $87 range. This means many holders may sell here to break even.

Cost Basis Cluster: GlassnodeIf Solana gets rejected at $87, the bounce may stop near 5%. That alone would validate the current bounce setup. But if Solana breaks above $87, it would signal something more important.

It would show that sellers at this key level are no longer in control. That could open the path toward $90, $93, and potentially higher levels later. Beyond $99, which aligns with the neckline of the bullish pattern, the SOL price could even push for $120.

Solana Price Analysis: TradingViewHowever, a drop under $80 could weaken the immediate bullishness. Moreover, the entire bounce-to-rally theory fails if the SOL price dips under $75.

For now, Solana does not need a rally to confirm strength. A bounce toward $87 alone would confirm it. But if that barrier breaks, this small bounce could become the beginning of a larger rally.

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Around 46% of BTC, or 9.09m coins, sit at a loss in early 2025, nearing 2022 bear‑market loss concentrations after the 2024–2025 rally unwound.

Summary

About 9.09m BTC, roughly 46% of the 19.8m circulating supply, are below their last on‑chain transaction price, the second‑highest loss reading since mid‑2022’s ~10m‑coin peak. Previous cycle lows saw 50–60% of BTC supply in loss; current levels mirror late‑2022 conditions but at much higher absolute prices, as many 2024–2025 entrants are now underwater. CryptoQuant data show net realized profits flipping to net losses since late 2025, with holders realizing up to 69k BTC in aggregate losses, resembling the 2021–2022 bull‑to‑bear transition
Approximately 9.09 million Bitcoin (BTC), representing roughly 46% of the cryptocurrency’s circulating supply, is currently held at a loss as of early 2025, according to data from CryptoQuant.

The figure marks the second-highest loss concentration recorded in CryptoQuant’s dataset spanning from July 2020 through early 2026, falling just below the peak reached during the 2022 bear market.

The BTC Supply in Profit/Loss chart from CryptoQuant displays coins held at a loss as a negative figure, with the current reading of negative 9.09 million coins approaching the deepest loss concentration visible on the chart. That record was set in mid-2022, when approximately 10 million coins were underwater as Bitcoin fell following the Luna and FTX contagion events.

The circulating supply of Bitcoin totals approximately 19.8 million coins, meaning nearly half of all Bitcoin that has moved on-chain is currently held below its last transaction price.

A key distinction separates the current period from the 2022 bear market. While a comparable number of coins were held at a loss during both periods, Bitcoin’s absolute price level remains significantly higher now than in 2022. The current loss concentration reflects holders who entered the market during the 2024-2025 rally and are now underwater, according to the data.

High supply-in-loss readings create specific market dynamics, according to market analysts. Holders facing losses experience pressure to either sell or maintain positions through corrections. Those with the highest cost basis relative to current prices typically exhibit lower conviction in long-term recovery.

The 2022 period provides a historical reference point. The supply-in-loss figure peaked near 10 million coins in late 2022 before declining as the market bottomed and new buying brought coins back into profit. That decline from peak loss concentration preceded the sustained price recovery that extended through 2023 and 2024.

Whether the current 9.09 million coin reading represents a peak depends on price stabilization at current levels or further decline, according to analysts tracking the metric.

Bitcoin held near the $66,000 level despite persistent extreme fear sentiment and rising geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran; liquidations stand at $316.95 million over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin ETFs saw $27.6 million in net outflows on Friday, while Ethereum ETFs reported $43 million in net outflows.

U.S. M2 hit a record $22.4T in January, why Bitcoin hasn’t followed, and what could change nextU.S. broad money supply (M2) reached a record $22.442 trillion in January 2026.

That put M2 up $922.4 billion (+4.29%) from January 2025, setting a new high for a metric that often anchors “liquidity up, risk up” narratives.

Unlike during the bull market, Bitcoin has not delivered a clean “M2 = up” response since August 2025.

Either liquidity transmission is delayed, it is being diverted through new plumbing (spot ETFs and stablecoins), or it is being dominated by other forces, including real yields, the dollar, and geopolitical risk, at least for now.

Many macro-crypto frameworks implicitly assume the marginal dollar created in the banking system eventually leaks into high-beta assets.

Price action since late 2025 has been a reminder that the path from “more money” to “higher BTC” is not linear.

The latest M2 supply milestone sits alongside a shifting market structure. The historical liquidity-Bitcoin relationship has also competed with six months of flow-driven trading, and several paths could close the mismatch in 2026.

Nominal M2 supply is at a record, but “record liquidity” is not the same as record purchasing powerThe nominal record is clear. The seasonally adjusted U.S. M2 series printed $22,442 billion in January 2026, up from $22,366 billion in December 2025 and $21,519 billion in January 2025.

The reference point for the prior peak also affects comparisons. On the same seasonally adjusted series, the prior nominal high occurred in April 2022 at $21,780 billion.

The distinction keeps the benchmark precise rather than relying on an imprecise version circulating online.

SeriesPointValueWhy it mattersM2 (SA)Jan 2026$22.442TNominal record highM2 (SA)Apr 2022$21.780TTrue prior peak on this seriesReal M2Sep 20217,668.4Inflation-adjusted peak (1982–84 $bn)Real M2Jan 20266,871.7~10.4% below real peakM2 VelocityQ4 20251.409Low “turnover” can blunt risk-asset impulseInflation-adjusted real M2 supply peaked in September 2021 at 7,668 (billions of 1982–84 dollars).

January 2026 printed 6,871, still about 10.4% below that peak.

In plain terms, the nominal pile of money is bigger than ever, but its purchasing power has not returned to the high-water mark of the 2021 impulse.

M2 velocity was 1.409 in Q4 2025, a level that remains historically low relative to pre-2020 norms.

Low velocity is a simple reason the “money printing = instant pump” shortcut can fail.

Money can sit in deposits, money market funds, or other cash-like wrappers instead of chasing duration risk. Liquidity exists, but it may not circulate into the assets crypto traders watch.

One definitional detail also helps. The Federal Reserve defines M2 as M1 plus “near money” components such as small time deposits and retail money market funds, with a definition change implemented in 2020.

The composition matters because a large share of incremental M2 growth can reflect shifts in cash management behavior rather than immediate risk-taking, according to the Fed’s H.6 release.

Historically, liquidity often leads Bitcoin, but the relationship is global, lagged, and regime-dependentBitcoin has repeatedly traded as a high-beta expression of liquidity conditions, but the relationship is not a law of nature.

It is a tendency that strengthens in some regimes and weakens, or flips, when other variables dominate.

Two ideas show up across serious macro-crypto work. First, Bitcoin responds more reliably to global liquidity than U.S.-only aggregates.

Second, even when liquidity “works,” it often works with a lag of around 90 days.

In research published in September 2024, Lyn Alden framed Bitcoin as a barometer of global liquidity direction and reported that Bitcoin moved with global liquidity direction 83% of the time over 12-month periods in her dataset.

Coinbase Institutional has made a similar point through a more explicitly timing lens, arguing that a global M2-style liquidity index can lead Bitcoin by about 110 days in their construct.

My own analysis showed that Bitcoin’s relationship with global M2 money supply is real but conditional and time-varying rather than a simple “money printing = number go up” rule.

In level terms, Bitcoin has shown a strong positive correlation with M2 when the liquidity series is shifted by roughly 84 days (12 weeks), particularly during the 2024–2025 bull advance, but that relationship weakens or even flips negative during drawdowns.

On a day-to-day basis, correlations are near zero, with the strongest statistical links appearing only after multi-week lags (around six weeks for M2 and about one month for the dollar).

M2 acts as a slow, multi-month trend driver when the dollar is stable or weakening, while dollar strength can override or compress the liquidity effect, making the correlation regime-dependent rather than fixed.

The blue line on the chart above represents dollar strength, magenta is the M2 money supply with a 12-week lag, and orange is the Bitcoin price. You can clearly see Bitcoin diverging from M2 supply growth after a sustained period of dollar weakness.

Thus, today’s record U.S. M2 print does not need to translate into a same-month BTC move.

It could show up later, if other conditions such as the dollar, yields, and flows stop leaning the other way.

“Global liquidity” also means something broader than money supply charts.

The BIS frames global liquidity in terms of the ease of financing, often measured through credit to non-bank borrowers, cross-border bank claims, and other indicators of funding conditions.

That framing helps explain why a single-country monetary aggregate can climb while global funding conditions tighten, and why BTC can trade heavy even when U.S. money measures look supportive.

Liquidity correlation also expands and contracts.

It can look tight in a bull phase and noisy or negative in a drawdown, especially when the market is repricing real yields, a surging dollar, or an exogenous shock that changes what investors want to hold in the moment, according to research tracking correlation over time.

For 2026, M2 can be a supportive backdrop, but it still needs a transmission mechanism.

For Bitcoin, that mechanism has increasingly run through market structure, including who the marginal buyer is, which rails they use, and what prompts them to add or reduce exposure.

The last six months showed the new plumbing: ETF flows and geopolitics outweighed the M2 narrativeOver the last six months, market structure and flow channels played a larger role than broad aggregates.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs and the daily reality of allocation flows have become an outsized driver of short-run price discovery.

Bitcoin’s early-2026 weakness has repeatedly pointed to ETF demand swings as a core explanation alongside broader macro volatility.

That flow-regime shift is significant because it changes how “liquidity” manifests.

In prior cycles, crypto-native leverage and offshore exchange dynamics could dominate marginal demand.

In 2025–2026, an increasing share of marginal exposure is intermediated through regulated wrappers that respond to a different set of signals, including risk budgets, portfolio rebalancing rules, and macro hedging costs.

When those flows turn negative for weeks, they can offset, or at least delay, whatever support a rising money aggregate suggests.

Geopolitics has also acted as a stress test for Bitcoin’s “hedge” narrative.

During volatility spikes tied to geopolitical tension, gold has tended to strengthen while Bitcoin lagged, reinforcing the idea that many allocators still treat BTC as a risk asset in the short run.

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That does not settle the long-run debate about Bitcoin’s monetary role, but it can shape near-term positioning and how quickly liquidity tailwinds translate into buying.

Trade policy developments have added another layer. Tariff escalation can push investors toward a stagflationary branch where inflation expectations rise while growth expectations fall.

That mix can keep real yields sticky, which tends to pressure long-duration and high-beta assets.

A separate path is one to watch for later. If growth slows enough, rate-cut expectations can rise, and financial conditions can loosen, potentially reopening the liquidity channel that Bitcoin bulls want to see.

The sequencing can make the same macro shock bearish first and supportive later.

Meanwhile, crypto has developed a parallel liquidity gauge that sits outside traditional money aggregates, stablecoins.

The circulating stablecoin market has grown into a pool of on-chain “cash” that can move into spot, perps, and DeFi without touching the banking system in the same way.

DeFiLlama puts total stablecoin market capitalization around $309 billion, a number large enough to influence marginal crypto demand even if it is small relative to U.S. M2.

Circle’s USDC supply has also been rising sharply, with a market cap of around $75 billion.

Taken together, the last six months look less like a breakdown in M2 and more like M2 competing with stronger forces.

When ETF flows de-risk, and geopolitical fear pushes investors toward gold, Bitcoin can drift or fall even while nominal money aggregates climb.

The open question for 2026 is what happens when those forces stop leaning in the same direction.

Scenarios for 2026: a lagged catch-up rally, a clogged transmission, or a risk-off resetWith M2 at record highs, the key question is whether liquidity will transmit into Bitcoin, and under what conditions.

One way to frame the setup is through scenarios tied to measurable inputs, including the dollar, real yields, ETF flows, stablecoin supply, and the pace of M2 growth and velocity.

ScenarioWhat has to happenMechanismWhat to monitorA: Liquidity catch-up rallyM2 stays firm; USD weakens; real yields drift lower; ETF flows turn persistently positiveLagged liquidity impulse reaches BTC via improved financial conditions and renewed allocation demand (often framed as ~10–16 weeks)ETF flow trend; DXY/real yields; global-liquidity proxiesB: Liquidity up, BTC range-boundM2 rises but velocity stays low; cash parks in MMFs/deposits; ETF flows remain mixedNominal money grows without a risk-taking impulse; marginal BTC buyer does not appearM2 velocity; real M2 trend; weekly ETF demand swingsC: Stagflation/risk-off shockTariffs/energy shocks lift inflation risk; policy stays restrictive; risk premia rise; ETFs see more de-riskingBTC trades as a levered risk proxy; gold outperforms as “hedge” in the short runInflation expectations; real yields; gold vs BTC behavior during stressScenario A is the clean “liquidity finally transmits” setup.

It is also the scenario most consistent with lag-based liquidity models that argue Bitcoin tends to respond after weeks or months, not instantly. Coinbase explicitly leans on that lag logic.

Scenario B is the one that frustrates traders, the money aggregate rises, but the market stays pinned because the liquidity is effectively idle.

In this regime, “record M2” is a talking point rather than a catalyst.

The supporting evidence would be continued low velocity and real M2 staying below its prior peak, implying that the incremental nominal dollars are not creating an incremental risk bid.

Scenario C is the reminder that macro shocks can override aggregates.

If investors price a persistent inflation problem and policymakers keep conditions restrictive, Bitcoin’s sensitivity to real yields can dominate.

In that world, liquidity is less about money supply levels and more about the cost of capital and the availability of leverage.

Trade and geopolitical developments can push markets into that regime quickly, and gold-versus-Bitcoin performance becomes a real-time diagnostic.

The watchlist is straightforward.The first three items indicate whether the macro backdrop is easing in real terms.

The next two indicate whether the primary flow channels are delivering demand into crypto.

The last item checks whether the liquidity channel is appearing on-chain before it appears in spot ETF data.

IndicatorWhy it’s on the listSourceU.S. M2 level and YoY changeConfirms nominal liquidity trend and whether growth is accelerating or fadingM2Real M2 vs 2021 peakChecks whether purchasing power is expanding back toward prior highsRealM2 velocityMeasures whether liquidity is circulating or sitting in cash-like storesM2VSpot BTC ETF net flowsTracks the dominant marginal flow channel in this market structureFlowsDollar and real-yield complexSets the discount-rate and risk-appetite conditions that can amplify or choke a liquidity impulseMacroStablecoin market capOn-chain “cash” proxy that can show risk-taking before it appears in ETFsDeFiLlamaBitcoin does not need to track M2 closely for the current decoupling to be relevant.

A few more months of record nominal M2 alongside weak BTC would still be consistent with a lagged model if the dollar stays firm, real yields stay elevated, and ETF demand remains choppy.

It would also fit a structural shift, where macro liquidity is necessary but not sufficient, and the trigger is a turn in the primary flow channels.

That could include ETFs turning into steady net buyers, stablecoins expanding, and global funding conditions loosening in tandem.

The next data points arrive on a regular cadence. M2 updates monthly, velocity updates quarterly, and ETF and stablecoin flows update continuously.

If Bitcoin is going to catch up to record nominal liquidity, the market will likely show it first in those flow gauges, then in price.

Mentioned in this articlePosted in

Your day-ahead look for March 2, 2026Updated Mar 2, 2026, 12:18 p.m. Published Mar 2, 2026, 12:13 p.m.

Bitcoin can provide a defense against the debasement of fiat currency brought on by war. (Shutterstock)What to know: If you're not already subscribed to the newsletter email, click here.

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The conflict between U.S., Israel and Iran remains the day's biggest story as the attacks intensify and spread.

Markets reacted as they typically do: by de-risking and sending oil prices higher. Bitcoin BTC$66,005.29 dropped to $66,300, down 0.5% over 24 hours, having hit a high of $68,000 over the weekend. The CoinDesk 20 Index fell over 2%, signaling broader losses in the crypto market and futures tied to the S&P 500 index lost 1%.

Looking past the headlines and panic, the war could only strengthen the "debasement trade," a strategy in which investors rotate into scarce-supply assets like gold and bitcoin in anticipation of a decline in the value of fiat (paper) currencies.

Governments in the U.S. and elsewhere already owe more than they generate in economic growth. Their finances will only worsen the longer the war drags on. In such situations, governments don't collect enough in taxes. Instead, they force central banks to "print money" through bond purchases or quantitive easing (QE) to monetize debt. This floods fiat supply and dilutes purchasing power. Hello debasement.

Traders front-run that process by loading up on store-of-value assets like gold and BTC. The yellow metal has been on a tear for over a year mainly on debasement flows. BTC did not participate back then. But now, having nearly halved to under $67,000 since October, it looks oversold. The possibility of the debasement trade catalyzing a bounce in the largest cryptocurrency cannot be ruled out.

Besides, historically the Fed turns dovish with liquidity easing during geopolitical stress, supporting asset prices, as Maelstrom Fund's CIO Arthur Hayes noted in his blog post.

Let's see how things unfold. In the meantime traders need to watch headline risks and oil upswings. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to WatchFor a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

CryptoMarch 2: SuperRare to release Delirium, a new collection by artist Xer0xMarch 2: Mantra’s OM to change to MANTRA with a 1:4 coin split as the MANTRA Chain upgrades from v6 to v7.MacroMarch 2, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for February est. 52.3 (Prev. 52.6)Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)March 2: Riot Platforms (RIOT), post-market, -$0.32March 2: Core Scientific (CORZ), post-market, -$0.18Token EventsFor a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

Governance votes & callsPoolTogether DAO is voting to manually resubmit and execute the remaining actions for the PTBR-35 Governance Shutdown after a previous execution error. Voting ends March 2.Angle DAO is voting to orderly wind down the EURA and USDA stablecoins, providing users a one-year 1:1 redemption period followed by a final settlement airdrop. Voting ends March 2.GMX DAO is voting to transition to a defined leadership model by hiring a CEO with performance-tied compensation and forming an interim leadership committee to guide the restructuring. Voting ends March 2.UnlocksNo major unlocks.Token LaunchesMarch 2: Dovu (DOVU) to be listed on Kraken.ConferencesFor a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

Day 2 of 2: Crypto Expo Europe (Bucharest, Romania)Market MovementsBTC is up 0.98% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $66,194.78 (24hrs: -0.35%)ETH is up 1.48% at $1,950.67 (24hrs: -1.63%)CoinDesk 20 is up 0.78% at 1,916.46 (24hrs: -1.11%)Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1 bp at 2.85%BTC funding rate is at -0.0011% (-1.2147% annualized) on BinanceDXY is up 0.64% at 98.23Gold futures are up 3.03% at $5,406.80Silver futures are up 2.64% at $95.75Nikkei 225 closed down 1.35% at 58,057.24Hang Seng closed down 2.14% at 26,059.85FTSE is down 0.78% at 10,825.36Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.89% at 6,022.64DJIA closed on Friday down 1.05% at 48,977.92S&P 500 closed down 0.43% at 6,878.88Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.92% at 22,668.21S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.47% at 34,339.99S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.82% at 3,741.78U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 0.4 bps at 3.966%E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 1.04% at 6,817.25E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 1.42% at 24,650.00E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 1.11% at 48,458.00Bitcoin StatsBTC Dominance: 58.63% (0.22%)Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02944 (-0.18%)Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,068 EH/sHashprice (spot): $29.01Total fees: 2.55 BTC / $169,782CME Futures Open Interest: 109,280 BTCBTC priced in gold: 12.2 oz.BTC vs gold market cap: 4.42%Technical AnalysisEther's daily chart. (TradingView)The chart shows ether's daily price swings with Bollinger bands, which are volatility bands placed two standard deviations above and below the 20-day simple moving average of the price. The gap between the bands has shrunk to $226, the narrowest since June 2025. Volatility typically booms when bands narrow, which means the token could soon see big price moves in either direction. Crypto EquitiesCoinbase Global (COIN): closed on Friday at $175.85 (-2.88%), -2.42% at $171.60 in pre-marketCircle Internet (CRCL): closed at $83.44 (-4.32%), -3.46% at $80.55Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.59 (-6.15%), -2.19% at $20.14Bullish (BLSH): closed at $31.39 (-4.09%), -3.73% at $30.22MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.94 (+5.80%), -1.23% at $8.83Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $16.29 (-4.68%), -2.70% at $15.85Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.97 (-5.62%)CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.95 (-4.69%), -2.01% at $9.75CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $39.88 (-5.43%), -3.61% at $38.44Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.20 (-2.39%), -2.25% at $9.97Crypto Treasury Companies

Strategy (MSTR): closed at $129.50 (-2.92%), -0.39% at $129.00Strive (ASST): closed at $7.94 (-3.05%), -2.39% at $7.75SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.82 (-5.41%), +0.44% at $6.85Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.66 (-12.88%)Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.13 (-0.88%)ETF FlowsSpot BTC ETFs

Daily net flows: -$27.5 millionCumulative net flows: $54.78 billionTotal BTC holdings ~1.27 millionSpot ETH ETFs

Daily net flows: -$43 millionCumulative net flows: $11.63 billionTotal ETH holdings ~5.7 millionSource: Farside Investors

While You Were SleepingTrump says Iran war may last ‘four weeks or less’ as strikes escalate (Euronews): Trump says the Iran war could last four weeks or less as U.S. and Israeli forces continue their strikes in Iran, which is responding with hits on Gulf states, Israel and U.S. targets.New Iranian strikes reported across region, including in Saudi Arabia, as US planes crash in Kuwait (BBC): New Iranian strikes were reported across the Middle East, with explosions in Bahrain, Dubai and Saudi Arabia. U.S. equity futures fall in pre-market trading as oil, gold retreat from highs (CoinDesk): U.S. equities fell in pre-market trading. The Invesco QQQ ETF declined 1.5%. A Saudi Arabia oil refinery was hit by Iran, pushing WTI crude oil as high as $75 per barrel. Gold rallied more than 2% to $5,400 per ounce.Hedge funds, insurers rush to gauge exposure as Iran spirals (Bloomberg): Hedge funds, banks and insurers rushed to size up their exposure to the Middle East after weekend attacks on Iran fueled chaos across the region.More For You

The worst may lie ahead. Bitcoin chart revisits historic pattern.

Feb 27, 2026

Your day-ahead look for Feb. 27, 2026

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Gold (XAU/USD) price has benefited extremely from the Middle East conflict. As the conflict in the Middle East escalates, Gold price surged 3.31% in the past 24 hours to reach a local high of about $5,422 per ounce on March 2, 2026, during the early European trading session.

Gold (XAU/USD) daily chart. Source: TradingView

As such, Gold’s market cap surged to around $37.69 trillion, since its amount of above-ground reserves is about 216,265 metric tonnes.

Why is the Gold price surging today amid the U.S. Dollar surge? The main reason why the price of gold is surging today is due to the extreme demand recorded in China in the past few days. Although the U.S. Dollar has gained in value, as shown via 0.7% gain in DXY today, Chinese investors have flocked to the precious metals market.

Furthermore, China’s share of the U.S.  Treasuries has been on a steep decline in recent years.

China’s share of U.S. Treasuries. Source: X

Earlier today, X user Bai Xiaojun reported that extreme retail demand for gold pushed the prices to a high of $5,574/oz. Furthermore, Xiaojun showed that JD.com Inc. (Hong Kong: 9618), China’s largest gold store, experienced login glitches due to extreme retail demand.

Why is Bitcoin price down for 5 consecutive months? Amid the ongoing precious metal bull rally, the Bitcoin (BTC) price has been trapped in a macro bear market. Following its over 15% dump in February 2026, the flagship coin has now closed five consecutive months in the red.

BTC/USD monthly chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin price has been trapped in a macro bear market primarily due to the notable decline in its Open Interest (OI) amid heavy liquidation of long traders. Amid the ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, mainly due to the Middle East crisis, Bitcoin’s OI has dropped from above $62 billion in mid January 2026 to hover about $43 billion at press time.

BTC OI for 2026. Source: CoinGlass

Meanwhile, Bitcoin price has suffered macro bearish outlook catalyzed by low spot demand. According to market data from SoSoValue, the United States Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded a total net outflow of $27.55 million on Friday, February 27, 2026. Interestingly, the U.S. spot BTC ETFs have recorded four consecutive months of outflows of about $6.4 billion.

Sony Bank said it has signed a memorandum of understanding with stablecoin issuer JPYC Inc. to study whether the Japanese yen-pegged stablecoin JPYC can be connected more directly to the bank’s deposit rails.

In a statement on Monday, the companies said they will study real-time account transfers that would allow users to purchase JPYC instantly from their Sony Bank accounts through the JPYC EX platform, eliminating the need for manual bank transfers. 

Sony Bank said its Web3-focused subsidiary, BlockBloom, will play a central role in designing how the bank link, stablecoin rails and potential consumer services would work in practice.

The agreement comes as Japan formalizes stablecoin issuance under its revised Payment Services Act, with regulated financial institutions beginning to test integration at the deposit layer rather than limiting access to crypto exchanges.

Real-time conversion under Japan’s stablecoin rulesJPYC began issuing its yen-backed stablecoin on Oct. 27, 2025, under Japan’s revised Payment Services Act, which recognizes stablecoins as electronic payment instruments. 

According to the company, the token is backed 1:1 by bank deposits and Japanese government bonds and is issued and redeemed through the JPYC EX platform, which requires identity verification.

The companies said the agreement is exploratory and does not introduce a new stablecoin. They did not give a timetable for when any real-time transfer feature might be launched.

The companies said the feature would be designed under a neutral framework, not limited to a single financial institution, to preserve the scalability of JPYC EX. 

Last week, JPYC announced plans to raise 1.78 billion yen (about $12 million) in the first close of its Series B round, led by Asteria Corporation, to expand system development and ecosystem partnerships.

Exploring links to entertainmentBeyond payments, Sony Bank and JPYC said they will explore linking the stablecoin to entertainment intellectual property, including music and gaming services. Potential use cases include digital content purchases and the distribution of rewards. 

The companies said future efforts will also examine streamlining the issuance and redemption of JPYC using Sony Bank services to reduce user steps. 

The announcement stated all initiatives will be developed in compliance with applicable laws and regulatory guidelines.

Magazine: Bitdeer sells all Bitcoin, Metaplanet rejects misconduct claims: Asia Express

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy

Ethereum is monitoring SHIB as Binance's top users split 50/50 in long and short positions, reflecting cautious sentiment ahead of March.

Shiba Inu is entering March with an unusual balance among top Binance traders. Data from the exchange shows the top 20 users split almost evenly between long and short positions. This comes after February’s turbulent close, marked by double-digit losses across many cryptocurrencies. The token’s current stance among elite traders reflects indecision rather than a clear directional bias.

Top Binance Users Split on SHIB’s Next MoveAccording to Binance, the top 20 traders with the highest margin balances show near parity in their SHIB positions. Around 48.92% hold shorts, while 51.08% hold long positions, yielding a long-short ratio of 1.04. When measured by position size, shorts slightly edge out longs at 50.05% versus 49.95%. Binance notes that this indicates the platform’s most significant accounts do not share a unified view on SHIB’s immediate price movement.

This equilibrium contrasts with SHIB's historical trends in March. In 2024, the token recorded a notable rally, closing the month up 145%. Such performance is rarely repeated, and top traders may be cautious, splitting their positions in anticipation of volatile market behavior.

Historical Context Influences Trader CautionFebruary's disappointing monthly closes influenced current positioning. Many cryptocurrencies suffered double-digit losses, prompting traders to hedge their exposure. Binance reports that this strategy is common among elite accounts to balance risk while remaining positioned for potential gains.

The current balance among top Binance users could affect SHIB’s short-term price stability. Some traders expect volatility as March begins, while others anticipate a potential rally. Binance emphasizes that the near-even long and short split signals indecision rather than consensus.

As March unfolds, SHIB’s performance will be closely watched by retail and institutional investors. Binance data shows that top-margin holders are adopting a cautious approach. The past rallies do not guarantee future gains, and the split positioning may influence market sentiment in the coming weeks.

At the time of writing, Shiba Inu trades at around $0.00000550, down 3.09% in the last 24 hours.

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An important long-term technical signal is still flashing bullish as Bitcoin approaches an important point on the higher timeframe charts. According to CMT-certified analyst Tony Severino, the monthly SuperTrend indicator for BTCUSD has held support and is yet to display an active sell signal, even with recent market dynamics leading to contention as to whether the cycle has flipped bearish. His chart highlighted an interesting development on the one-month timeframe, where the structure has not yet transitioned into a confirmed sell.

Monthly SuperTrend Still In Buy Mode In his post on X, Severino focused on the Bitcoin BTCUSD 1M chart and noted that the SuperTrend indicator has held support and kept its active buy signal. The monthly timeframe is particularly significant because it filters out short-term noise and shows a clear view of the broader cycle.

The accompanying chart shows Bitcoin trading around $66,300, with the SuperTrend level sitting just above $66,400. However, the indicator is still printing green on the monthly timeframe, which means that the macro trend has not flipped bearish. A monthly close below the SuperTrend line is what has always confirmed a sell signal, and that has not happened.

The visual structure in the chart also shows how previous bear markets were characterized by a clear transition from green to red on the SuperTrend. At present, that transition has not occurred. Instead, the Bitcoin price is consolidating around the SuperTrend support.

Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @TonySeverinoCMT On X

Is The Bottom Close Or Is More Patience Needed? Severino added an important caveat. According to him, almost all bear markets initially hold at support for a month or three before eventually turning into a sell signal. That observation points out that simply holding support does not automatically invalidate bearish risk. Although the analyst acknowledged that bear markets can linger at support before failing, he noted that the bottom is usually close after such behavior. 

Bitcoin ended February 14.8% below its monthly open, but it has managed to hold above the SuperTrend. That said, a confirmed monthly breakdown below the SuperTrend would materially change the outlook. Until that happens, the indicator is demonstrating that Bitcoin is still in a bullish structure.

Severino later shared another post discussing a separate analysis based on the quarterly Ichimoku indicator. In that analysis, he stated that historical evidence and data suggest Bitcoin could fall another 38% to 66% from current levels. A decline of that magnitude would imply a Bitcoin bear market bottom anywhere from $40,000 to $25,000.

Severino followed up in another post with a comment saying, “Sell, says the SuperTrend.” At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $66,000, down by 1.6% in the past 24 hours. The monthly structure has not fully broken, but the warnings indicate that the cryptocurrency may not be out of danger just yet.

BTC price creates support at $66,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Fears of World War III are rising as the U.S., Israel, and Iran conflict grows and more countries take sides. The UK, France, and Germany back the U.S., while Russia and China criticize the strikes. As tensions increase, the Bitcoin price has impacted hard, as investor shifts for a safer haven.

Are we on the verge of World War III?

On February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel carried out large airstrikes across Iran. The attacks targeted military sites, key leaders, and major facilities. One strike reportedly hit the office of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed.

Iran quickly responded with missile and drone attacks on Israel and U.S. military bases in the Gulf region. Strikes were also reported in Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Oman, the UAE, & other nations, where U.S. forces are present.

Iran has also threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, a key route that carries about 20–30% of the world’s oil supply.

The rapid rise in attacks has increased fears of a bigger war, with some worrying about World War III.

Rising Global Tensions Raise Fears of Wider WarBecause this fight is no longer just between two sides. Hezbollah, a group backed by Iran, fired rockets at northern Israel, and Israel struck back in Lebanon.

France, Germany, and the United Kingdom support the United States. They criticized Iran’s response and asked for talks to stop the conflict from growing.

Meanwhile, China and Russia strongly criticized the U.S. and Israeli attacks. They said the strikes were not justified and warned that they could make the Middle East conflict much worse.

The United Nations and many countries have called for restraint and a return to diplomacy to avoid further violence.

Bitcoin Price To Hit HardBitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, dropped sharply to $63,000 during that time. At the same time, major altcoins like ETH, XRP, SOL, ADA, and Dogecoin also fell around 10%.

Bitcoin closed February down 15%, marking its fifth straight month in the red. According to a CryptoQuant analyst, about 9.09 million BTC, nearly 46% of the total supply, is now sitting at a loss.

Looking at the current price trend, the $58,000 level stands out as a strong historical buying zone. In past cycles, this level has often acted as solid support for Bitcoin.

My target for Bitcoin.

First level: 65k. That's the previous all-time high. We're already there. If you buy the thesis, it's already time.

Second level: 58k. The 200-week simple moving average.

In 2020, the 200W SMA caught the COVID crash. In 2018, it marked the absolute… pic.twitter.com/gyUdYnLv3M

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Mon, 2/03/2026 - 12:36

Chun Wang, founder of F2Pools, one of the earliest Bitcoin mining pools, may be preparing a $250 million Ethereum acquisition, as alleged by Arkham, with tokenization and the "digital oil" narrative seen as key reasons.

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

As reported by Arkham, Chun Wang, founder of F2Pool, one of the earliest Bitcoin mining pools, has allegedly withdrawn $67.5 million worth of ETH tokens from Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, over the past two weeks. Moreover, this address, which likely — only likely — belongs to Wang, is currently holding $150 million in Ether on Aave.

Interestingly, according to Arkham, over the past month and a half, Chun Wang has deposited around $240 million in stablecoins on Binance. And the question that follows from all this information is whether Chun Wang is accumulating Ethereum at the moment, considering the ETH price at $1,948 is below the critical $2,000 level. 

Chun Wang Wallet Receiving Multi-Million Dollar ETH Inflows, Source: ArkhamAdding to that, over the past six months, since Sept. 1, the leading altcoin has already lost more than 60% from its high of $4,955 to current levels — a figure that may be appealing for this sort of big capital.

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Why F2Pool founder may be absorbing millions of EthereumIf we assume this is indeed true and Arkham is not mistaken, a more interesting question is what Wang’s pain threshold is and whether he would be ready to buy more Ethereum if the leading altcoin were to fall, for example, to June 2022 levels, where its lowest value of the past five years stands at $880, or to April 2025 levels, when ETH dropped to $1,385.

ETH/USD Monthly Chart, Source: TradingViewIs Wang ready to tolerate another 20-30% downside on a multimillion position in Ethereum? Or perhaps he does not consider such a scenario likely and, in his view, a move back above $2,000 is more probable.

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It is interesting that the Ethereum accumulation trend continues, which means this is not random. The most likely reason is growing interest in tokenization in the real world assets and stablecoin sector, which is now on the verge of a regulatory breakthrough with the Clarity Act being considered in the United States.

As someone compared Ethereum in 2025 to digital oil, this now seems less like an exaggeration and increasingly aligned with reality, given all of the above. 

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Pi momentum is heating up again. With foundational systems in place, the network’s growth will depend on the applications, services, and real-world utilities developed on top of that infrastructure. After previously touching 74,000 Pi staked, the BNPi community is now pushing toward a new milestone: 100,000 Pi. 

In just 12 days, over 60,289 Pi have already been locked, sparking renewed excitement across the ecosystem and raising one big question: 

Can the community hit six figures before Pi Day? Let’s find out!

The latest update from BNPi confirms that 60,289.207523 Pi is currently staked, a sharp climb that highlights growing engagement within the network. The pace has surprised even longtime supporters. With staking accelerating daily, optimism is building that the 74,000 milestone could soon be left behind.

BNPi’s team is leaning heavily into community energy. In a recent post, they reminded followers of the last 74,000 milestone and asked whether 100,000 is achievable this time. The message was simple but powerful: progress happens step by step, and collective effort drives results.

That sentiment appears to be resonating. The staking surge suggests users are not just watching from the sidelines but actively participating. The psychological impact of nearing a round-number target like 100,000 Pi could further fuel momentum in the coming days.

Analysts Highlight Growing Ecosystem UtilityCommunity voices are amplifying the excitement. Crypto analyst drealFx described the 60K milestone in just 12 days as “crazy,” pointing to undeniable energy around BNPi. He emphasized that the momentum is tied to something deeper than hype, real-world utility.

BNPi positions itself within the Pi real-estate ecosystem, aiming to expand tangible use cases. That narrative appears to be strengthening confidence. Rather than purely speculative interest, supporters are framing staking growth as a reflection of expanding ecosystem value.

Utility Narratives Driving EngagementThe broader theme emerging from these discussions is utility. BNPi continues to promote real-world applications for Pi, particularly in real estate. This gives the staking campaign a more structured foundation compared to short-lived social media trends.

Historically, milestone-driven pushes can create strong bursts of activity. If staking momentum remains steady beyond headline targets, it could indicate deeper ecosystem commitment.

For now, the data shows one clear trend: participation is accelerating. With over 60K Pi already staked and community enthusiasm rising, the race toward 100,000 has officially begun.

Never Miss a Beat in the Crypto World!Stay ahead with breaking news, expert analysis, and real-time updates on the latest trends in Bitcoin, altcoins, DeFi, NFTs, and more.

FAQsWhat is the BNPi 100K Pi staking milestone?

It’s a community goal to lock 100,000 Pi in BNPi staking. Crossing it would signal stronger engagement and growing ecosystem confidence.

How much Pi is currently staked in BNPi?

Over 60,289 Pi has been locked in just 12 days, reflecting accelerating participation and renewed momentum across the network.

Does higher staking mean long-term ecosystem growth?

Sustained staking often signals deeper commitment. If momentum holds beyond milestones, it may reflect stronger long-term adoption.

Trust with CoinPedia:CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017. All content is created by our expert panel of analysts and journalists, following strict Editorial Guidelines based on E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness). Every article is fact-checked against reputable sources to ensure accuracy, transparency, and reliability. Our review policy guarantees unbiased evaluations when recommending exchanges, platforms, or tools. We strive to provide timely updates about everything crypto & blockchain, right from startups to industry majors.

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Aave governance participants have advanced a proposal outlining a structural shift in the protocol’s operating model that would reroute all revenue from the Aave-branded products to the DAO treasury while aligning future development around the upcoming V4 upgrade.

The "Aave Will Win" temp check secured about 622,300 YAE votes, or 52.58%, according to governance results. NAY votes totaled 497,100, or 42%, while 64,200 votes, or 5.42%, abstained. The vote was created on Feb. 25, opened Feb. 26 and concluded early Sunday.

If carried through subsequent stages, the framework would establish four operational pillars: directing 100% of Aave-branded product revenue to the DAO, establishing a formal brand protection mechanism, ratifying Aave V4 as the core technical foundation, and creating a framework for the DAO to fund strategic growth initiatives.

The temp check serves as an initial signal of community support. A formal ARFC submission incorporating feedback is expected as the next step in the governance process.

Revenue capture, technical transition Under the framework, 100% of gross product revenue earned by Aave Labs, net of direct revenue sharing and incentives paid to external partners, would flow to the DAO treasury.

Products listed in the proposal include aave.com and its associated fees, the Aave App mobile application, Aave Card, Aave Pro, Aave Kit for enterprise integrations, Aave Horizon for real-world asset and institutional services, and a proposed AAVE exchange-traded product. 

The DAO would also receive revenue from the swap integration on aave.com, which currently generates approximately $10 million in annualized revenue, with planned expansion to additional chains and functionality, according to the proposal. 

The proposal also seeks to ratify Aave V4 as the protocol's primary technology layer. While Aave V3 currently generates more than $100 million in annualized revenue, the proposal outlines a transition plan where V3 enters "stable maintenance" once V4 is mature. 

This transition is designed to occur in three phases — active development, stable maintenance, and legacy support — ensuring V3 remains open for withdrawals, with parameters gradually adjusted to encourage migration to the V4 architecture.

Brand governance, funding request Aave Labs, the current exclusive legal owner of the Aave trademarks, proposed the creation of a Foundation to assume responsibility for brand governance. Since the DAO is not a legal entity, it cannot directly hold trademarks. The proposed Foundation would instead license the brand to approved entities and address unauthorized use in alignment with DAO parameters. 

This shift accompanies a plan to expand market access for the AAVE token through regulated traditional market products, including futures and a spot exchange-traded product.

Meanwhile, the funding request presented by Aave Labs involves a primary grant of $25 million in stablecoins and 75,000 AAVE. The stablecoin portion consists of $5 million upfront and $20 million streamed over one year, while the 75,000 AAVE will unlock linearly over 24 months.

Additionally, the proposal includes milestone-based growth grants of $5 million each for the launch of the Aave App, Aave Pro, and Aave Card, and $2.5 million for the Aave Kit launch.

The motivation for this structural overhaul, according to the proposal, is the requirement to match the resource allocation of competing fintechs and banks as institutions move onchain. Aave Labs noted that by directing all product revenue to the treasury, the entity can no longer self-fund the product engineering, legal defense, and business development operations it has maintained since 2017.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

© 2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the first week of March 2026 in limbo as fresh geopolitical chaos explodes.

Bitcoin avoids major volatility as a new Middle East conflict breaks out, but traders are hardly bullish.

Long-term BTC price patterns lead to a fresh $45,000 target.

Iran tensions form the week’s macro focus as analysis dismisses the idea of “World War Three.”

Inflation risks could provide a reason for the US to keep the Iran offensive as short as possible.

Bitcoin institutional inflows are finally teasing a major turnaround after months of decline.

Bitcoin survives Iran conflict outbreak — for nowBitcoin price action fought off the urge to sell despite the Iran conflict playing out during low-liquidity weekend trading conditions.

Data from TradingView shows a trip to near $63,000 marked the climax of the initial market reaction before a sustained rebound kicked in.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Now, traders see events continuing to favor crypto market stability.

“If it's a bloodbath (unlikely imo), then I'll long Bitcoin around $61k-$60k ahead of de-escalation talk news,” trader CrypNuevo wrote in a thread on X.

CrypNuevo suggested that de-escalation would form a pivotal trigger for the markets in the coming days and argued that anything else would be counterproductive for the US government.

“The truth is that this war is not convenient for Donald Trump in a midterm election year, here's why: A long conflict would keep the Strait of Hormuz closed for a long time leading oil prices to increase, and consequently, US CPI inflation would spike. And that won't happen,” he wrote.

Trader Crypto Tony, meanwhile, eyed $62,000 as a potential BTC long entry.

— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) March 2, 2026 Others warned of repeat bearish price action with the formation of triangle structures as part of an ongoing downtrend.

“$BTC has been following the same pattern again and again,” trader BitBull summarized. 

“I think there'll be a pump above $74K to trap late buyers before the next big dump.” BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: BitBull/X$45,000 joins bearish BTC price targetsBearish BTC price predictions remain firmly in force across longer time frames.

A lack of momentum among bulls, who have been unable to recapture even nearby support levels, is leading to increasingly bleak market forecasts for 2026.

One trend line now back in focus for independent analyst Filbfilb is calling for a further 50% BTC price dive.

“In every instance since inception, a weekly close below the yellow band has resulted in a c.40-50% correction,” Filbfilb told X followers alongside a chart showing historical price performance. 

“Levels c. $40-45k for the bands at the moment. A bounce off around $50k is not impossible, but ultimately, the price has met the lower band.” BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Filbfilb/X
In subsequent discussions, a rescue level emerged for the weekly close, with this still out of reach on Monday at $72,000.

The $45,000 zone, Cointelegraph reported, is already a popular target for a long-term BTC price floor.

In a post on his Telegram trading channel, Filbfilb added that open interest trends are also mimicking Bitcoin’s last bear market. Open interest is rising while price itself is falling, indicating increasing short activity.

BTC/USD order-book data. Source: FilbfilbAnalysis on Iran: “This is NOT World War Three”With little US inflation data due this week, attention will stay focused on the Middle East and broader geopolitical instability.

Iran events sparked 7% WTI crude oil price rises on Monday, while Asian stock markets traded lower as tensions appeared worldwide.

CFDs on WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Volatility was palpable as markets sought to digest the implications of a military campaign against Iran that US President Donald Trump said could last a month.

“Combat operations continue at this time in full force and they will continue until all our objectives are achieved. We have very strong objectives,” Trump said in a televised address on Sunday.

Crypto markets reined in volatility throughout the weekend, and as TradFi markets returned, Bitcoin preserved $65,000 as support.

“Approximately $300m in long liquidations were triggered as the news broke, a notable but contained figure, particularly relative to the more disorderly deleveraging events observed in early February,” trading company QCP Capital wrote in its latest “Asia Color” market update. 

“The comparatively modest scale of forced selling suggests that positioning had already been materially lightened in recent weeks.” Crypto liquidations (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
QCP noted that the previous Iran upheaval in June 2025 resulted in only brief BTC price divergences before the then-active uptrend continued.

“While the scale of this attack is far greater than last year’s, price action could be hinting at early signs of history repeating itself,” it added.

Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter had similar conclusions about markets’ reactions overall. Oil prices, it argued, were not indicative of panic.

“This is NOT World War 3. Ignore the noise,” it told X followers.

US inflation in focus with oil volatilityAs Cointelegraph reported earlier, however, concerns have surfaced over the Iran conflict’s longer-term impact on US inflation.

Thanks to risks to oil trade routes, notably the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings in particular are now under the microscope. February CPI is due for release on March 11, with over a month remaining until the weekend’s events begin to show up in the numbers.

“A full closure of the Strait of Hormuz would send oil prices above $100 per barrel, according [to] our analysis, which would imply a spike in US CPI inflation to ~5%,” Kobeissi wrote in an X post on the topic.

US CPI 12-month % change. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Recent US inflation prints have overshot expectations, some by a considerable margin, leaving markets sensitive to any surprise catalysts.

“A jump in oil prices could have major implications on the outlook for inflation,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company stressed in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.” 

“Changes in energy prices can drive fluctuations in headline inflation, with a study by the Federal Reserve estimating that every $10 increase in the price of oil adds 0.20% headline inflation.” Brent crude oil vs. headline CPI. Source: Mosaic Asset Company
Mosaic likened the current situation to the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, warning that geopolitics was not the only oil-price tailwind at work.

“Energy prices were a major contributor to an inflation wave that peaked in 2022 at the highest level in over 40 years,” it continued.

“While the conflict in the Middle East will be a major catalyst for movement in energy prices, a prolonged period of underinvestment in various energy and industrial commodities was already setting the stage for a rally.”Kobeissi nonetheless argued that Trump’s own policy to “eliminate inflation” and cut gas prices would see an effort to keep any knock-on effects under control.

“A prolonged war with Iran would work in the opposite direction of these key initiatives, particularly in the short-term during a crucial midterm election year. We think Trump aims for a short and swift operation and markets prevail once again as the dust settles,” it concluded.

Fed target rate probabilities for March FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group
Higher inflation reduces the odds of interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and, in turn, cuts the prospect of liquidity inflows to crypto and risk assets. The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows a mere 4.4% chance of a cut at the Fed’s March meeting.

Bitcoin ETF flows flip bullishAmid lackluster BTC price action and acceptance of a new bear market beginning, institutional inflows are causing a stir for onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant.

Last week, the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw three consecutive days of net inflows totaling more than $1 billion. Friday saw only a modest net outflow of $27.5 million, per data from UK-based investment company Farside Investors.

“Lately, the crypto markets has been showing some very specific on-chain signals that suggest a major shift in how Bitcoin is moving between different types of investors,” CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha commented in a “Quicktake” blog post on Monday.

Taha said that the latest uptick in inflows represented the first “meaningful” accumulation since last October, around the time of Bitcoin’s $126,200 all-time high.

“This marks the first noticeable accumulation wave after months of stagnation or decline,” he added. 

“Historically, rising ETF demand tends to be constructive for price, while declining demand often aligns with price weakness.” Bitcoin ETF flows and liquidity impulse (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on expectations that institutional Bitcoin investor resolve would only strengthen in time, with a new influx of buyers less interested in selling on short-term price moves.

“Every cycle, the weak hands get filtered out. And every cycle, what replaces them is longer-duration capital,” EMJ Capital founder Eric Jackson explained.

“2017: retail sold at $20K. 2021: funds sold at $69K. 2025: ETF allocators are selling at $63K.” US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors
Jackson called the recent exodus of ETF buyers the “purification” of the long-term Bitcoin bull case.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

XRP has fallen behind BNB in cryptocurrency market capitalization rankings following a sharp decline in its value.

As of press time, XRP’s market cap stood at $82.8 billion, down about $7.7 billion from its weekly peak of $90.5 billion on February 26.

Meanwhile, BNB’s market cap at the time of reporting stood at $84.5 billion,  placing the asset fourth in the overall rankings. The shift puts BNB ahead of XRP by roughly $1.7 billion, pushing XRP down one spot. 

Cryptocurrency rankings. Source: CoinMarketCap At the same time, XRP’s price has also weakened, with the token trading at $1.35 as of press time, down 2.6% over the past week.

XRP seven-day price chart. Source: Finbold Why XRP is plunging  Notably, the decline reflects broader cryptocurrency market pressures that intensified in February 2026 and carried into early March. Weakness in Bitcoin (BTC) weighed heavily on the wider altcoin market, dragging sentiment lower across the board.

At the same time, massive leveraged liquidations, in some cases exceeding $2 billion, accelerated the sell-off and amplified downside momentum.

Slowing inflows into XRP-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which had previously provided support, further reduced buying pressure.

From a technical perspective, the token’s breakdown below key support around $1.60 triggered additional selling, while February’s historical tendency to produce weaker performance for XRP added to the cautious tone.

Beyond crypto-specific factors, macroeconomic uncertainty also played a role. Shifts in interest rate expectations tied to the nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair, combined with risk-off sentiment fueled by geopolitical tensions, including developments involving the U.S. and Iran, dampened investor appetite for risk assets.

Meanwhile, a noticeable rotation into stablecoins signaled a defensive market posture, reducing demand for more volatile assets such as XRP.

Featured image via Shutterstock

Magic Eden is narrowing its focus to the Solana blockchain and its Dicey gambling platform while sunsetting various Bitcoin and Ethereum services. CEO Jack Lu announced on X that Magic Eden will streamline its marketplace to focus exclusively on Packs and Solana while doubling down on Dicey, its crypto casino and sportsbetting project.

Five straight weeks of net redemptions from crypto investment products are enough to raise the alarm, as they point to a choice that keeps getting made, with the same logic, on the same cadence, by the same kinds of committees.

CoinShares' Feb. 23 weekly report showed digital asset investment products saw $288 million in outflows for the week, the fifth consecutive weekly decline, bringing the five-week total to $4 billion.

Trading activity cooled as well, with weekly volumes around $17 billion, which CoinShares described as the lowest since last July.

The data also shows the US saw $347 million worth of outflows, while Europe and Canada together posted $59 million of inflows.

With the same price, same chart, same global market, different hands have been doing different things through the most regulated, easiest-to-measure channels. The discrepancy in the regional appetite for Bitcoin leads us to question who's still willing to add when the US is trimming, and what that says about how risk appetite is being routed across borders.

Last week, however, the market saw some relief as net inflows turned positive, breaking the streak and bringing in around $787 million. This was not enough to reverse the net outflow year-to-date, but it was a well-needed break in the pattern.

A map that matters because it repeatsYet when we treat the five-week streak as a pattern first, we can leave the week-to-week noise for later.

A single week of outflows doesn't have to mean anything, as it can be a result of regular housekeeping: tax timing, profit-taking, or even a rebalance that will be reversed.

But five weeks in a row, paired with falling volumes, is enough to warrant caution. It shows a market where fewer participants want to trade the move, while more participants want to reduce exposure and keep cash optionality.

Looking at the regional split shows that the US outflow outweighs the combined Europe-and-Canada inflow, so this isn't a clean pass-the-baton moment where non-US buying fully absorbs US selling inside regulated products.

Still, a positive number outside the US in a low-volume week isn't trivial. It tells us where the marginal buying is still happening, and it does so in a form that is easy to understand for institutions: regulated wrappers, recorded flows, publishable attribution.

The simple interpretation of this data is pretty narrow. We can see that the world's biggest capital market is reducing crypto exposure through products built for quick, compliant positioning. And we can also see a smaller set of markets continue to buy through comparable vehicles.

That difference can persist for reasons that have little to do with price or network specifics, but a lot to do with local politics, local headlines, and local career risk.

Why the US is behaving differently right nowPolicy is now a part of the daily market variable in the US, and the price of uncertainty is what we see get repriced in public.

A Supreme Court ruling struck down key parts of President Donald Trump's tariff program, reopening questions about what tariff rates apply, under what authority, and with what durability. With tariff rates “up in the air,” as some reports put it, we've seen a kind of economic fog drop down on the US, leaving businesses and investors guessing about the rules.

The kind of fog we're seeing now has a specific market consequence. It makes the next move harder to predict because it can arrive as a court decision, an agency notice, or a political statement. It also makes the same risk position harder to defend internally, because the reasons for holding it can be overtaken quickly by a new interpretation of what the rules are. When that's the backdrop you're trading in, portfolios tend to tighten. The trimming starts with exposures that are easy to trim, and crypto wrappers often sit right there.

The tariff episode also puts large numbers on the table. More than $175 billion in tariff collections could be subject to refunds after the Supreme Court ruling, citing estimates from the Penn-Wharton Budget Model. The Financial Times described a wave of lawsuits seeking tariff refunds and put the amount at more than $160 billion, showing just how quickly the ruling translated into real claims.

Put those pieces together, and the outflows we've seen in the US aren't a mystery anymore. It's a market that has become more reactive to regulatory uncertainty, and in that kind of environment, managers make room for liquidity. They do it through actions that are quick, clean, and easy to explain, and selling down crypto exposure through regulated products checks all three boxes.

Why Europe and Canada can keep buying the same dipEurope is not detached from US trade policy. It gets its fair share of hits through exports, currencies, and corporate planning. But the investor who buys crypto exposure through European ETPs often behaves differently from the investor who buys exposure through US-listed products, and the difference is the clearest during weeks when the US political news cycle runs hot.

Part of it is simply the composition of the buyer base.

European crypto ETP flows can be more allocator-driven, less trading-driven, especially in markets where exchange-traded products are a routine way to express global views. So for European crypto ETF investors, the drawdown is just something that hasn't produced a broad rush for exits, even as prices dropped.

Table showing the crypto ETP flows by country (Source: CoinShares)That doesn't mean European investors are fearless, though. They're most likely playing a slow game, where adding on weakness is part of the strategy.

Another piece is informational distance. The legal fight over US tariff authority is global in consequence, but it's domestic in theatre. The argument lives inside US institutions and inside US politics, and that can amplify how loud it feels to US allocators. Outside the US, the same issue can be processed as just one of many risk factors rather than as a daily scoreboard.

European policymakers are also talking about the spillover directly. ECB President Christine Lagarde said trade was challenging for the eurozone in a world shaped by volatile US policy. That matters because it reframes Europe's stance and shows that it's not ignoring the volatility. Both regulators and investors are digesting it as a cross-border constraint, while the US is living it as a domestic dispute that keeps reopening.

Canada's presence in the inflows split strengthens this point. CoinShares grouped Europe and Canada as net buyers while the US posted the bulk of the outflows. While Canada doesn't share Europe's institutions, it shares its low direct exposure to the day-to-day political friction around the tariff fight itself.

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In that light, the buying we've seen from both regions shows that this is a market carried by non-US allocators, not just Europeans.

What the divergence can do to price actionCoinShares' numbers show the US outflow was larger than the combined inflows in Europe and Canada for the same week.

That means the non-US bid for ETPs isn't large enough to cancel out the selling in the US.

Nonetheless, marginal flows can still matter when volumes cool, because the market needs less incremental selling to push price down and more incremental buying to push price up. In quieter weeks, the identity of the marginal buyer starts to matter more than it does in weeks when everyone is active.

A US-led retreat in regulated products can also alter how rallies form. When US wrappers are acting as a steady bid, price gains can look smoother because they are supported by systematic allocation and routine inflows. When that bid weakens, rallies rely more heavily on spot demand outside ETPs, on derivatives, and on discretionary buying that can arrive unevenly. That doesn't make rallies impossible, but it makes them harder to achieve.

At the same time, a consistent non-US bid can soften the edge of a selloff. It can't reverse a global risk-off move by itself, and it certainly can't guarantee stability. What it can do is reduce how quickly selling cascades through one channel, especially when overall trading participation is lower.

The point here isn't that European ETP inflows “set the price,” because they're still too small to move the needle by themselves. The point is that they can keep a bid present even when the US is stepping back.

A short watchlistThis is an allocation story, so the way you understand this situation should be through allocation data.

First, watch the next US weekly print. If inflows continue, or the outflow size shrinks, the pattern is cooling. If it persists, risk aversion is still high.

Second, watch whether Europe and Canada keep posting positive weeks. A single week most likely won't tell you anything, but several weeks in a row are a very good tell of market behavior.

Third, watch volumes. The $17 billion figure was the lowest since July 2025. If volumes recover, participation is returning. But if they stay low, it means that the market is still positioned defensively.

Chart showing the weekly crypto asset flows from May 2025 to February 2026 (Source: CoinShares)Fourth, keep an eye on tariff clarity. The US is now in a rule environment that markets struggle to price. If the situation gets a durable framework, the tape can cool. But if it stays unresolved, it will keep feeding the kind of uncertainty that led to these outflows in the first place.

The marginal buyer is still here, and the map is shiftingCrypto markets like to talk in universal narratives, and Bitcoin's global nature encourages it. But capital still lives inside countries, institutions, politics, and news cycles that shape what feels safe to hold and what feels easier to sell.

A five-week streak of outflows concentrated in the US shows American allocators want more liquidity and fewer exposures that trade as high beta. The tariff ruling and the uncertainty around what rates apply help explain why the US market can feel harder to price right now, with refund math and legal authority pulling markets in and out of different base cases.

Against that backdrop, Europe and Canada posting net inflows might look like a proclamation of confidence. But, as always, the truth is much less dramatic. These inflows are evidence that someone is still allocating through regulated rails, even as the US trims.

That's the kind of thing that can matter for price formation, because it tells you the market isn't relying on one country's appetite alone. The buyer is still present, but it's the location that's moving.

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Bitcoin High-Stakes March: $120K Forecasts Meet the $60K–$70K Accumulation Grind

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Bitcoin March outlook is separating the bulls from the bears. After grinding through a sustained high-stakes consolidation phase that bottomed at $62,900 last week, Bitcoin is back trading above $66,000 at the time of writing.

While price action feels heavy following the 22% decline from this time last year, macro analysts are eyeing a violent repricing event that could send the asset vertical before the end of the month.

Key Takeaways:

Macro economist Henrik Zeberg projects a primary scenario where Bitcoin rallies to $110,000–$120,000 in March, fueled by ETF inflows and risk-on sentiment. A volatility flush to $62,920 triggered a massive short squeeze, resetting funding rates and clearing over-leveraged positions. On-chain metrics place the current $60,000–$70K action in a historic accumulation band, despite fear persisting in the market. Bitcoin ETF Inflows Point to $110K–$120K: But Can It Last?Despite the recent chop, the institutional thesis remains aggressively bullish. Macro economist Henrik Zeberg has doubled down on a Bitcoin price prediction that sees the asset nearly doubling within weeks.

Portfolio Target Analysis – March 2026

Fundamental Perspectives to the Outlook and Targets of the Portfolio.

My Core Hypothesis
Bitcoin rallies to $110–120K in the primary scenario – fueled by Risk-On Fever, ETF inflows, and continued institutional adoption. There is a…

— Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) March 1, 2026 On March 1, Zeberg outlined a “primary scenario” targeting $110,000 to $120,000, representing an 80% upside from the recent lows around $66,000.

Bitcoin rallies to $110–120K in the primary scenario – fueled by Risk-On Fever, ETF inflows, and continued institutional adoption.

— Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) March 1, 2026

Zeberg attributes this potential surge to “Risk-On Fever” and relentless ETF demand. He even assigns a 25% probability to an overshoot scenario reaching $140,000 to $150,000.

This aligns with data from Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani, who argue that the market is witnessing the “weakest bear case” in history due to banking adoption and pro-crypto policies under the Trump administration.

Institutional infrastructure is rapidly catching up to these forecasts. For instance, Morgan Stanley applying for a national trust charter to hold clients’ crypto signals that major players are positioning for a long-term hold, reducing the floating supply available on exchanges.

If these inflows sustain their current pace, the supply shock could validate Zeberg’s $120,000 target sooner than the derivatives market expects.

Discover: The best new crypto on the market

Bitcoin $62.9K Short Squeeze, and Why March is CriticalThe path to these highs, however, is being paved with volatility. Bitcoin dropped to $62,920 early last week on Feb 24. The dip punctured the rising support line, trapping late bears who piled in expecting a crash to $50,000.

What followed was a textbook BTC short squeeze. As price reclaimed $65,000, short positions were forced to cover, driving the asset back up above $69,000 the following day.

This flush mirrors the market dynamics seen recently, where Bitcoin rebounded after sudden geopolitical shocks erased $5K in 24 hours, proving the market’s resilience at these levels.

The RSI on the daily chart has reset from overbought territory to a neutral 41, suggesting the market has room to run if buying pressure returns.

Is Bitcoin’s March to $120k Possible?CoinMarketCap’s Fear & Greed Index is currently set to “Extreme Fear” (15/100), a classic contrarian signal that often marks local bottoms.

The divergence is clear: weak hands are selling the dip, while smart money treats the $60K floor as a gift. Key historic patterns suggest that post-halving corrections often end with this type of grinding consolidation before the markup phase resumes.

The market is now coiled between two critical levels. The immediate resistance sits at $72,000. A clean break above this level confirms the end of the correction and opens the door to Zeberg’s $110,000 target.

However, risks remain. If Bitcoin fails to hold the $60,000 support, the structure weakens significantly. Bearish voices like Jimmy Wales have famously argued against the asset’s long-term viability, and warnings that BTC could collapse below $10k should investors panic still circulate during downturns, though they look increasingly disconnected from the current institutional reality.

Still, the odds may yet favor the bulls. The combination of political tailwinds from the expected passing of CLARITY, ETF inflows, and a completed leverage flush sets the stage for a march higher.

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Railgun activity remained elevated in February, despite the overall market downturn. The mixer remains one of the key products in the Ethereum ecosystem that may see growth in the coming years, as privacy remains a concern. 

Railgun holds peak value locked, showing robust activity as one of the most widely used mixers. The rise of Railgun offers an alternative to Tornado Cash for regular activity and has been adopted by DeFi users to disguise positions. 

Total value locked on Railgun expanded to over $113M, with most of the value on the Ethereum network. Polygon, Arbitrum, and BNB Chain make up the small remainder. As Cryptopolitan reported, Ethereum is seeking to upgrade its ecosystem, seeking AI assistance and viable use cases. 

Railgun expanded its value locked in February, still showing robust transaction activity used in DeFi. | Source: Dune Analytics Railgun achieved $269K in fees for February, slightly lower compared to March. However, the size of transfers is also expanding, showing that larger DeFi clients trust the protocol. 

Vitalik Buterin has used Railgun on multiple occasions, though some of his latest transfers are not anonymized. Railgun is also expanding through dedicated wallets and a privacy toolkit, which can be integrated in DeFi apps. 

Railgun grew as crypto mixing returned Railgun claims to offer privacy for legal users. However, threat actors also adapted and expanded their usage of mixers. According to the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance, mixing is back after the end of sanctions against Tornado Cash. 

According to the researchers, sanctions reshaped the mixing ecosystem. While Tornado Cash was the leader in the 2020-2022 period, sanctions led to a diversified mixer market. 

Other protocols had the advantage of not tainting funds, as exchanges may still be reluctant to accept funds linked to Tornado Cash. Railgun emerged as the leading protocol, with a share of 13% in 2022 and over 71% in 2025. 

The main funds moving through Railgun are WETH, USDT, USDC, and DAI, showing the influence of DeFi as the main driver. 

Railgun scans the funds at entry based on a database of tainted wallets. However, this approach has failed to catch funds from recent exploits, as hackers now shift their haul much faster.

Other pools check for the origin of funds when withdrawing assets. For now, Railgun has managed to see acceptance, allowing counterparties to move funds to exchanges without revealing previous transaction details. 

RAIL slides despite Railgun usage RAIL tokens slid to $1.02, erasing over 46% in the past month. RAIL is unraveling from a previous rally that boosted privacy tokens. 

Despite the project’s prominence and promotion, RAIL lacks listings on major exchanges. As the token relies on DeFi liquidity, its price reflects the market sentiment directly. RAIL has also been immune to concentrated pumps from centralized exchanges. 

The mindshare of RAIL is also down by 46% recently, as the token does not offer immediate signs of rallying.

For now, RAIL is pressured in a similar way to other coins and tokens. RAIL has historically outperformed, with significant short-term rallies of up to 40%, but is still pressured by long-term altcoin weakness.

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Magic Eden just cut ties. The NFT marketplace said goodbye to Bitcoin and Ethereum services on March 2, when CEO Jack Lu dropped the news on X that pretty much shocked nobody who’s been watching their moves lately.

Lu’s announcement wasn’t really a surprise for folks tracking Magic Eden’s direction over the past few months. The company decided to go all-in on Solana blockchain operations and their Dicey gambling platform, basically putting all their chips on two bets instead of spreading resources across multiple blockchains. Magic Eden wants to streamline everything, which means Bitcoin and Ethereum users got the boot. Lu said the move comes down to focusing resources where they see the most user engagement and growth potential, though he didn’t share specific numbers about transaction volumes or user activity across different chains.

Not exactly shocking news.

But the timing raises questions about Magic Eden’s long-term strategy in a market where most competitors keep diversifying across multiple blockchains. The company built its reputation as a major NFT marketplace with robust features and tons of digital collectibles, so dropping two of the biggest crypto networks feels like a pretty big gamble. And Magic Eden didn’t specify how existing Bitcoin and Ethereum users will handle their assets during the transition.

Solana makes sense for their focus, though. The blockchain handles thousands of transactions per second at minimal costs, which works great for NFT trading and online gambling. SOL was trading around $22 on March 2, showing decent investor confidence in the network’s adoption. Magic Eden probably sees Solana’s speed and low fees as perfect for both their marketplace and Dicey operations.

Dicey keeps gaining traction as Magic Eden’s crypto casino and sports betting venture. The platform combines traditional casino games with sports betting, all running on cryptocurrency transactions. Lu thinks this aligns with the rising trend of blockchain-powered gambling, offering transparency and security that traditional platforms can’t match.

Still risky business. This follows earlier reporting on Bitcoin Crashes 23% in Worst Quarter.

Magic Eden’s competitors aren’t following the same path. Most NFT marketplaces keep supporting multiple blockchains, hedging their bets across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and others. OpenSea, for example, still operates across several networks, and LooksRare maintains Ethereum support alongside other chains. Magic Eden’s concentrated approach could pay off big if Solana keeps growing, but it’s also a major risk if the network hits problems or loses market share.

The company hasn’t shared details about user asset migration or timeline for shutting down Bitcoin and Ethereum services. Users are waiting for guidance on how to handle their current holdings, and Magic Eden promised more updates soon. Some users already expressed concerns on social media about asset security during the transition period.

Magic Eden plans to explore partnerships with other blockchain gaming companies to expand Dicey’s offerings. Lu wants to attract a broader audience and capitalize on growing interest in cryptocurrency-fueled gaming experiences. The gambling sector has been heating up lately, with several crypto casinos seeing increased activity as traditional sports betting moves online.

The strategic shift reflects Magic Eden’s analysis of user engagement and transaction volumes across their platforms. Lu said focusing on Solana and Dicey allows better resource allocation and enhanced user experience in areas with the most promising growth potential. He didn’t share specific metrics, but the decision suggests their Bitcoin and Ethereum operations weren’t generating enough revenue or user activity to justify continued support.

Market watchers are split on Magic Eden’s strategy. Some analysts think the focused approach makes sense in a competitive market where resources matter. Others worry about putting too much weight on one blockchain, especially when Solana has faced network outages and scalability issues in the past. More on this topic: Bitcoin ETFs Pull 7 Million After.

Magic Eden’s next moves will determine whether this gamble pays off. The company needs to execute a smooth transition for existing users while building momentum on Solana and Dicey. Any major problems during the migration could damage their reputation and drive users to competitors who still support multiple blockchains.

The NFT and crypto sectors keep evolving fast, and strategic decisions like Magic Eden’s could make or break companies in this space. Lu’s bold approach toward specialization shows confidence in Solana’s future, but the market will ultimately decide if concentrating on fewer platforms was the right call.

Magic Eden didn’t respond to requests for additional comment about specific migration timelines or asset protection measures.

Solana’s network has experienced several high-profile outages over the past two years, including a 17-hour downtime in September 2021 and multiple shorter disruptions that affected trading activity. These technical issues have raised concerns among developers and users about the blockchain’s reliability for mission-critical applications like NFT marketplaces.

The broader NFT market has also contracted significantly since its 2021 peak, with total trading volumes dropping over 90% according to DappRadar analytics. Magic Eden’s pivot toward gambling through Dicey represents a diversification strategy as traditional NFT sales continue declining across all major blockchains.

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