Market Signal Briefing

Ethereum price is rejecting near $3,400 as daily bearish divergence forms and volume fades, increasing the probability of a corrective move toward $2,800 high-time-frame support.

Summary

ETH rejected at $3,400 resistance with VAH + 0.618 confluence Daily bearish RSI divergence signals momentum weakness at the highs Fading volume increases pullback odds toward $2,800 support Ethereum’s (ETH) price recent rally is showing early signs of exhaustion as price fails to hold above the key $3,400 high-time-frame resistance zone. While ETH has remained strong overall, the market is now flashing technical warning signals that often appear near local tops, particularly when resistance aligns with weakening momentum.

Ethereum price key technical points Ethereum rejected from $3,400 resistance, a high-confluence technical zone ETH is printing daily bearish divergence as RSI weakens despite higher price highs Declining volume strengthens the case for a pullback toward $2,800 support ETHUSDT (4H) Chart, Source: TradingView The $3,400 region remains one of Ethereum’s most important structural resistance levels. Price pushed into this zone with strong momentum, but the market has now shown signs of rejection, indicating that sellers are actively defending the level.

This zone is reinforced by multiple technical factors. The value area high represents the upper boundary of accepted value within the current range structure, meaning price is trading into a premium area where distribution is more likely to occur. At the same time, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement adds a critical decision level that often separates continuation from reversal.

When Ethereum rejects from this type of high-confluence region, it typically signals one of two outcomes: either a deeper consolidation before attempting another breakout, or the start of a corrective move back into lower range value.

Daily bearish divergence signals weakening momentum The most notable signal on the chart is the daily bearish divergence. This divergence occurs when price prints a new high while momentum indicators like RSI print a lower high. In simple terms, Ethereum is pushing higher in price, but the momentum behind the move is fading.

This matters because daily divergences carry greater weight than intraday signals. Higher-time-frame divergences reflect broader market participation and often reveal when demand is weakening across multiple sessions, not just a temporary intraday pause.

Bearish divergence at resistance is often associated with topping behavior because it signals that buyers are struggling to maintain the same strength as the price rises. While price may still attempt additional upside briefly, the divergence suggests the market is increasingly vulnerable to a reversal if sellers begin to press the downside.

Volume decline adds another layer of risk Volume behavior supports the topping narrative. Ethereum’s push higher has shown signs of waning participation, a common characteristic of weakening rallies. Strong breakout conditions typically require expanding volume, as buyers step in aggressively to push the price through resistance with conviction.

When volume fades during a rally, it often suggests that the move is being driven by reduced sell pressure rather than strong demand. This creates an unstable structure, where price becomes more sensitive to rejection once resistance is reached.

In Ethereum’s current setup, the combination of rejection near $3,400, bearish divergence on the daily chart, and weakening volume creates a technical environment where reversal risk becomes increasingly difficult to ignore.

Downside target: $2,800 high-time-frame support If Ethereum continues to reject at $3,400 and the bearish divergence plays out, the next major technical target is $2,800, the high-time-frame support. This zone represents the next significant demand region where buyers are likely to defend the price.

A move toward $2,800 would also align with typical price-range behavior, where price rotates from value-area highs back toward lower support levels to rebalance and capture liquidity. In this sense, the correction would not necessarily imply a full macro bearish trend; it would instead represent a healthy reset within a broader structure, especially if $2,800 holds as support.

However, if Ethereum fails to hold $2,800 on a closing basis, the market could enter a deeper corrective phase. This makes the level a critical pivot for determining whether the pullback is temporary or more structural.

What to expect in the coming price action Ethereum is likely to remain sensitive around the $3,400 resistance zone in the near term. If price continues to reject and bearish divergence remains active, the probability favors a pullback toward $2,800 support, especially if volume continues to fade.

A bullish continuation scenario would require Ethereum to reclaim $3,400 with strong volume and multiple closes above the resistance level, neutralizing the divergence signal. Until that occurs, however, the technical evidence supports increased reversal risk.

Shiba Inu volumes have dropped nearly 50% on the derivatives market over the last 24 hours, as a fresh market twist emerges.

Bitcoin Cryptocurrency

Ad Disclosure

Ad Disclosure

We believe in full transparency with our readers. Some of our content includes affiliate links, and we may earn a commission through these partnerships. However, this potential compensation never influences our analysis, opinions, or reviews. Our editorial content is created independently of our marketing partnerships, and our ratings are based solely on our established evaluation criteria. Read More

Ad Disclosure

Ad Disclosure

We believe in full transparency with our readers. Some of our content includes affiliate links, and we may earn a commission through these partnerships. However, this potential compensation never influences our analysis, opinions, or reviews. Our editorial content is created independently of our marketing partnerships, and our ratings are based solely on our established evaluation criteria. Read More

Arslan Butt

Crypto Writer

Arslan Butt

Part of the Team Since

Sep 2022

About Author

Arslan Butt is an experienced webinar speaker, market analyst, and content writer specializing in crypto, forex, and commodities. He provides expert insights, trading strategies, and in-depth analysis...

Has Also Written

Ad Disclosure

Ad Disclosure

We believe in full transparency with our readers. Some of our content includes affiliate links, and we may earn a commission through these partnerships. However, this potential compensation never influences our analysis, opinions, or reviews. Our editorial content is created independently of our marketing partnerships, and our ratings are based solely on our established evaluation criteria. Read More

Last updated: 

9 minutes ago

Bitcoin’s long‑term valuation debate has taken a decisive turn after Ark Invest reaffirmed its 2030 price targets, projecting a range between $300,000 and $1.5 million. The firm argues that Bitcoin is entering a new phase defined not by speculation, but by institutional allocation, structured investment tools, and declining volatility.

With spot Bitcoin ETFs accelerating adoption and corporate treasuries steadily increasing exposure, Ark believes its forecast may ultimately prove conservative.

📰 Pulse News

Yesterday's $843M ETF inflow day lifted Bitcoin to $97K after six months near $88K range, with weekly flows now at $1B and YTD at $1.5B. pic.twitter.com/Xzarygux0w

— CertiK Skynet (@CertiKCommunity) January 15, 2026 Institutional Demand Reshapes BitcoinArk Invest’s latest outlook follows new data showing that spot Bitcoin ETFs and digital asset treasury programs now hold roughly 12% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply. This level of absorption—far above early expectations, has become a defining force behind 2025 and early‑2026 price behavior.

David Puell, Ark’s analyst and portfolio manager, emphasized that Bitcoin’s next chapter will be shaped by allocation decisions, not belief. Investors now have regulated, liquid, and institution‑friendly vehicles to gain exposure, reducing barriers that once limited participation. As a result, Ark’s valuation model continues to project:

$300,000 in a bear‑case scenario $710,000 as the baseline $1.5 million in a high‑adoption cycle Puell added that Bitcoin’s volatility profile is steadily compressing. Narrower retracements and more stable price structures could make the asset increasingly appealing to investors with lower risk tolerance.

Regulatory Delays Add Short‑Term UncertaintyThe U.S. Senate Banking Committee’s decision to delay the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act has introduced fresh uncertainty. Late revisions, particularly those affecting tokenization frameworks and stablecoin reward structures, triggered industry backlash.

The unbridled optimism that permeated the crypto industry during Trump’s first year back in power is giving way to angst, after a much-awaited digital-asset bill was delayed in the Senate https://t.co/nojRvtkOTe

— Bloomberg (@business) January 15, 2026 Coinbase’s withdrawal of support intensified tensions, though firms such as Ripple, Circle, Kraken, and a16z continue to push for a workable regulatory path. The delay has already affected markets.

Coinbase stock fell more than 3%, and several crypto‑exposed companies saw similar declines. Stablecoins remain at the center of the debate, with proposed reward caps raising concerns about user adoption.

NEW: 🇺🇸 US Senate Banking Committee postpones Bitcoin and crypto market structure legislation markup after Coinbase and others withdrew their support for the bill 👀 pic.twitter.com/XEQT7p2geR

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) January 15, 2026 Yet Bitcoin remains comparatively insulated. As a decentralized asset with no issuer, it is less vulnerable to regulatory shifts targeting intermediaries. Prolonged delays may even strengthen Bitcoin’s appeal as a politically neutral store of value.

ETF Inflows Surge as BTC Breaks Above $97KDespite regulatory noise, institutional appetite is rising. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.7 billion in inflows over three trading days, marking the strongest surge of 2026. BlackRock’s IBIT led with $648 million, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC at $125 million. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has returned to “greed” territory for the first time since October, reflecting renewed confidence

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Flag Breakout Signals Bullish Continuation Toward $100KBitcoin price prediction remains bullish as BTC’s 4‑hour chart now shows a bullish flag formation following a rally from the $90,000 region. Price is retesting the $95,150 support zone, aligning with the flag’s lower boundary.

A spinning‑top candle and RSI cooling to 64 indicate consolidation rather than weakness. The 21‑EMA crossing above the 50‑EMA reinforces upward momentum.

Bitcoin Price Chart – Source: TradingviewA breakout above $95,524 could trigger a measured move toward $101,000, with interim resistance at $97,700 and $99,000. Ethereum and Solana are also showing constructive setups, hinting at broader market strength.

As Bitcoin stabilizes and institutional demand accelerates, the long‑term trajectory remains firmly upward, setting the stage for investors exploring presale opportunities ahead of the next expansion phase.

Bitcoin Hyper: The Next Evolution of BTC on Solana?Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is bringing a new phase to the Bitcoin ecosystem. While BTC remains the gold standard for security, Bitcoin Hyper adds what it always lacked: Solana-level speed. The result: lightning-fast, low-cost smart contracts, decentralized apps, and even meme coin creation, all secured by Bitcoin.

Audited by Consult, the project emphasizes trust and scalability as adoption builds. And momentum is already strong. The presale has surpassed $30.7 million, with tokens priced at just $0.013585 before the next increase.

As Bitcoin activity climbs and demand for efficient BTC-based apps rises, Bitcoin Hyper stands out as the bridge uniting two of crypto’s biggest ecosystems. If Bitcoin built the foundation, Bitcoin Hyper could make it fast, flexible, and fun again.

Click Here to Participate in the Presale

As things stand right now, if there is no situation with Iran, then I actually favor fading this market. You are starting to see that a little bit on the hourly chart, as we may try to drop from here. But heading into what is, for the most part, a 3-day weekend, you really don’t want to be exposed to oil, in my honest opinion.

Bitcoin Another market that I’m watching very closely is Bitcoin because it is starting to show signs of life again. The day so far on Friday has been a little bit negative, and it’s worth noting that Thursday was as well, but we shot straight up in the air on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

I look at this as a market that is at a point of inflection. We have broken above a significant barrier in the form of $95,000, and I do think the longer we stay above $95,000, the more likely it is we grind higher. Anything above the 50-day EMA looks pretty good to me, which is all the way down at $92,161.

I do recognize that the 200-day EMA is at $99,500, and it will probably be a little bit of a technical barrier, but I still have Bitcoin going to $107,000. It’s just not going to be overnight. But it does look like a market that is breaking out of a massive consolidation and accumulation area.

Swedish Krona The next thing I’m watching is the Swedish Krona. This is a currency that, despite the fact that it’s in the US Dollar Index, a lot of traders don’t pay attention to it. But right now, it is the 2nd best performing G10 currency at the moment, with the exception of the Australian dollar being stronger than it.

The primary driver is the Swedish Central Bank’s hawkish hold. In other words, they are holding at 1.75%, and while that’s not considered to be a huge amount of interest, it is a different look than many other central banks. They are still out there assuming that the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, will cut rates, and that has driven the dollar down to 9.23 Krona.

I do think that this is a pair that could drop down to the 9 handle, an area that’s been important multiple times in the past, so I don’t think it shocks anybody, especially if there’s a little bit more of a dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve. Short-term rallies should end up being selling opportunities. The 50-day EMA is at the 9.3 level, and I think it probably continues to be a bit stubborn. I’m not looking for big moves here. This is not a pair that moves rapidly, but it does tend to grind in one direction for long periods of time.

To further drive the point home, you can see the Swedish Krona trading very strongly against the Euro, its biggest trading partner, as it had recently made a fresh new low. The stagnant Eurozone is having issues with growth, while Sweden continues to post positive growth data early this year, and that fuels a rotation out of Europe and into Sweden.

Natural Gas Finally, Natural Gas. I think we are in the process of bottoming out at the moment, and there are cold temperatures coming to the US fairly soon. The $3 level in the futures contract seems to be holding. Furthermore, you have to keep in mind that Monday is a shortened day. It is Martin Luther King Jr. Day in the United States, which is why I’m not bringing indices to your attention; they will be closed on Monday. Natural Gas will be closed for a huge portion of the day

But I do think we are looking at a market that has offered enough deep value that people are starting to push back. The $3.50 level is a major barrier; if we can overcome that, we would have very strong momentum, I suspect. But right now, I look at $3 as a short-term floor. So, I’m willing to buy pullbacks in small positions to take advantage of what I think will be a consolidation and then eventually an accumulation phase over the next couple of weeks.

A fresh rally may be underway in the cryptocurrency market, according to a senior analyst at blockchain data firm Santiment, who says investor sentiment is setting up a classic bullish signal for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP.

Brian Quinlivan, marketing director at Santiment, said in a recent interview that crypto prices are rising at a time when traders remain skeptical, a pattern that has historically supported further gains.

Why low excitement can be bullishSantiment tracks millions of social media posts to measure how bullish or bearish traders feel. Historically, crypto markets tend to rise when sentiment drops back to neutral or slightly negative.

Earlier this week, sentiment briefly showed signs of FOMO, but that quickly faded. Prices began climbing only after enthusiasm cooled, a pattern that often signals healthier rallies.

Despite Bitcoin moving close to recent highs, traders remain skeptical, suggesting many are still waiting for stronger confirmation before turning bullish.

Bitcoin breaks away from stocksBitcoin’s recent strength stands out because it came while U.S. stocks were under pressure. The S&P 500 slipped during the session, while crypto prices moved higher.

This divergence matters because Bitcoin has closely followed U.S. equities for much of the past few years. Santiment data shows Bitcoin lagged behind both stocks and gold since mid-December, creating room for a catch-up move.

That gap, analysts say, supports the case for a push toward the $100,000 level if sentiment stays under control.

Traders still worry after past failuresMany traders remain hesitant after several failed rallies late last year. Previous moves toward the $95,000 level ended quickly, leaving investors wary of another false breakout.

This lingering doubt may now be helping prices, as markets often move higher when the majority remains unconvinced.

Ethereum shows early signs of heatEthereum has also risen, but sentiment around the token is warming faster than Bitcoin’s. Santiment’s MVRV metric shows both short-term and long-term holders sitting in profit, a condition that has previously preceded short-term pullbacks.

While Ethereum can still climb if Bitcoin continues higher, the data suggests Bitcoin currently offers a slightly better short-term setup.

XRP hype rises, long-term picture steadierXRP has seen one of the sharpest jumps in online optimism, with bullish posts clearly outnumbering bearish ones. Past data shows such spikes are often followed by brief corrections, making short-term trading riskier.

However, longer-term indicators are more balanced. XRP remains well below its mid-2024 highs, and long-term holders are still underwater, which reduces downside risk for investors with a longer time horizon.

Trust with CoinPedia:CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017. All content is created by our expert panel of analysts and journalists, following strict Editorial Guidelines based on E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness). Every article is fact-checked against reputable sources to ensure accuracy, transparency, and reliability. Our review policy guarantees unbiased evaluations when recommending exchanges, platforms, or tools. We strive to provide timely updates about everything crypto & blockchain, right from startups to industry majors.

Investment Disclaimer:All opinions and insights shared represent the author's own views on current market conditions. Please do your own research before making investment decisions. Neither the writer nor the publication assumes responsibility for your financial choices.

Sponsored and Advertisements:Sponsored content and affiliate links may appear on our site. Advertisements are marked clearly, and our editorial content remains entirely independent from our ad partners.

The ICP price has returned to focus as new data reveals that Internet Computer emerged as the most used blockchain of 2025. Even while price momentum remained constrained for most of the year, adoption metrics, on-chain activity, and recent technical signals suggest a shifting landscape for ICP crypto.

ICP Price Supported by Unmatched Network Usage in 2025One of the strongest fundamental arguments behind the ICP price narrative comes from transaction data. It processed roughly $262 billion in total transactions during 2025, making it the most-used blockchain by volume. Notably, this figure surpasses several major networks and stands at more than three times Solana’s reported activity.

This data challenges the perception that ICP crypto lacks adoption. Instead, it highlights that Internet Computer’s architecture is facilitating large-scale usage, even while price action remained muted for extended periods. 

Long-Term Adoption Expands Despite ICP Price VolatilityBeyond transaction counts, ecosystem growth offers additional insight. A key adoption metric on Internet Computer is the number of registered canister smart contracts. Since January 2024, this figure has climbed from roughly 372,000 to over 1 million, representing approximately 2.5x growth.

This sustained expansion suggests developers continue to build regardless of short-term market conditions. While the ICP price USD struggled to generate consistent momentum in Q4 2025, development activity did not stall. Historically, such divergence between usage and valuation has often preceded repricing phases, although timing remains uncertain.

Vision of Onchain Cloud Shapes ICP Crypto NarrativeAt the protocol level, Internet Computer continues to push a long-term thesis centered on onchain cloud infrastructure. The project’s design aims to host full-scale applications directly onchain, moving beyond traditional smart contract limitations.

By 2015, work began to build a functioning world computer, that can truly host sophisticated apps onchain, by reimagining network design from first principles. After years of R&D it emerged. It's called the Internet Computer. In 2026, onchain cloud will go mass market. https://t.co/STMGjB57Ou

— dom williams.icp ∞ (@dominic_w) January 14, 2026 This vision positions ICP crypto differently from many competitors. Rather than focusing solely on transactions or DeFi metrics, Internet Computer frames itself as a base layer for decentralized compute. 

ICP Price Chart Shows Momentum Shift After BreakoutFrom a technical standpoint, the ICP price chart recently signaled a notable shift. Price surged more than 50% from the $3 region to nearly $4.80, breaking above both the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages. In addition, a short-term golden cross between these EMAs is forming, while price has already tested the 200-day EMA during the rally.

If momentum persists, technical projections suggest potential continuation toward the $7 zone, with higher resistance levels coming into focus should broader sentiment improve. These developments have reshaped near-term ICP price prediction scenarios after months of compression.

Trust with CoinPedia:CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017. All content is created by our expert panel of analysts and journalists, following strict Editorial Guidelines based on E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness). Every article is fact-checked against reputable sources to ensure accuracy, transparency, and reliability. Our review policy guarantees unbiased evaluations when recommending exchanges, platforms, or tools. We strive to provide timely updates about everything crypto & blockchain, right from startups to industry majors.

Investment Disclaimer:All opinions and insights shared represent the author's own views on current market conditions. Please do your own research before making investment decisions. Neither the writer nor the publication assumes responsibility for your financial choices.

Sponsored and Advertisements:Sponsored content and affiliate links may appear on our site. Advertisements are marked clearly, and our editorial content remains entirely independent from our ad partners.

Bitcoin price has broken above range-high resistance, but weak follow-through volume is raising failed auction risk and increasing the probability of rejection back toward range support.

Summary

BTC broke out above range-high resistance, but momentum stalled Weak volume follow-through signals failed auction / rejection risk Breakdown back below support targets $80,000 range-low support Bitcoin (BTC) price’s latest breakout attempt is starting to show early warning signs as price struggles to sustain momentum above the range-high resistance zone. While BTC technically pushed above a major structural level, the market is now stalling near the breakout area, and the lack of strong volume expansion is raising concerns that this move may be a failed auction rather than the start of a sustained uptrend.

Bitcoin price key technical points Bitcoin broke above range-high resistance, confirming a technical breakout Breakout follow-through is weak as volume fails to expand A breakdown back below resistance could trigger a rotation toward $80,000 range-low support BTCUSDT (4H) Chart, Source: TradingView From a pure price action perspective, Bitcoin’s breakout above resistance is meaningful. The range high acted as a key ceiling in the broader trading structure, and price briefly moved above it, signaling a potential shift in short-term bias.

However, breakouts require confirmation. The strongest breakouts are typically backed by expanding volume and strong continuation candles that show buyers are actively pushing price higher and sustaining acceptance above resistance. In Bitcoin’s case, that follow-through has not been evident. Instead, price has stalled and begun consolidating around the breakout level.

This creates a structural issue: a breakout without volume-backed continuation is vulnerable to failure, especially when the broader market context remains range-bound. Without strong demand stepping in above resistance, the market becomes increasingly susceptible to rejection.

Failed auction behavior and what it signals A failed auction occurs when price trades above a key level but cannot maintain higher value. Instead of finding new acceptance above resistance, the market quickly slows down or reverses, signaling that supply has entered aggressively and demand is not strong enough to sustain continuation.

Bitcoin’s current behavior fits this profile. Price moved above range-high resistance, but the stall suggests that buyers are not committing at higher prices. If demand were dominant, price would typically continue expanding upward rather than pausing immediately above the breakout zone.

This stalling behavior often indicates that sellers are absorbing liquidity at the highs. In other words, supply may be greater than demand at current levels, which increases the probability that price falls back below the breakout point.

Resistance flip to support must hold If Bitcoin wants to turn this breakout into a sustained move, the former range-high resistance must now act as support. This is one of the most important concepts in breakout trading: resistance must flip into support and hold on a closing basis.

At the moment, the market is testing that flip. Price is hovering around the breakout zone, which is normal after a breakout. The issue is that the support hold needs confirmation through bullish participation, and volume remains weak.

Without strong bullish volume, the probability increases that the support flip fails. A breakdown below the former resistance would confirm that the breakout lacked acceptance and would strengthen the failed auction thesis.

Range structure still dominates bitcoin Bitcoin is still trading within a broader range. The market has a clear range high and range low, and price has rotated between these boundaries for a sustained period. In this environment, false breakouts and failed expansions are common unless the market produces a decisive break backed by volume and higher-time-frame acceptance.

The current breakout attempt is occurring within that same range. This means the market is still vulnerable to a rotation lower if the breakout fails, especially since breakout volume has not expanded in a convincing way.

If the failed auction confirms, Bitcoin would likely return to the center of the range first before continuing lower toward deeper liquidity zones.

What to expect in the coming price action Bitcoin is now at a critical decision point. The breakout above range-high resistance is technically confirmed, but weak volume and stalled price action raise the probability of a failed auction and rejection back into the range. If Bitcoin cannot hold above the former resistance level as support, the likelihood of downside continuation increases.

A confirmed breakdown back below the range high would shift bias bearish in the short term and open the door for a rotational move toward $80,000 range-low support. On the other hand, if BTC holds support and volume expands, the breakout may still develop into a sustained continuation move.

contributor

Posted: January 16, 2026

Whales are known to sell at market tops and bottoms, but it’s how markets react that truly shapes price action.

On the 16th of January, Ethereum [ETH] faced selling pressure from large whales, with the price testing key resistance levels around $3,450. 

Whale activity created turbulence, and the market awaited whether ETH could break through resistance or retreat toward support.

OG whale dumps 13,083 ETH  On‑chain tracker Lookonchain reported that Ethereum OG 0xB3E8 deposited 13,083 ETH (worth $43.35 million) into Gemini over the past two days, signaling a potential market shift.

Source: X

Despite the large withdrawal, he still holds 34,616 ETH ($115M), showing confidence in Ethereum’s long-term prospects.

This move was seen by some as a classic profit-taking strategy, suggesting no intention of abandoning Ethereum for the long run.

Analyzing an 18,261 ETH short position Another whale took a highly leveraged short position, betting against Ethereum. This whale deposited 3 million USDC into Hyperliquid and shorted 18,261 ETH ($60.32M). 

Source: X

If ETH had climbed to $3,380, the position could have been completely wiped out. This high‑risk move added significant pressure around the $3,400 level.

Liquidity clusters build around $3.4K Ethereum’s price action was also influenced by liquidity clusters forming around the $3,400 mark.

These liquidity zones act as magnets during reversals, with traders closely watching to see if Ethereum could break the $3,450 resistance or retreat to lower support levels.

Source: CoinGlass

 Any movement past this point could trigger large liquidations, shifting the market significantly.

What’s next for ETH? Ethereum was testing the crucial $3,450 resistance. The next few hours were critical in determining whether ETH could break through or fall back toward support at $3,200.

Whale activity and liquidity pressure would heavily influence the outcome.

Final Thoughts Whale activity created significant selling pressure near Ethereum’s $3,450 resistance, influencing key market reactions. The market’s response to liquidity clusters and leveraged positions determined whether ETH could break through or retreat to support.

Polygon Reportedly Slashes 30% of Staff After Massive $250M Payments Bet

Hassan Shittu

Journalist

Hassan Shittu

Part of the Team Since

Jun 2023

About Author

Hassan, a Cryptonews.com journalist with 6+ years of experience in Web3 journalism, brings deep knowledge across Crypto, Web3 Gaming, NFTs, and Play-to-Earn sectors. His work has appeared in...

Has Also Written

Last updated: 

12 minutes ago

Polygon Labs has been reported to have already laid off a significant number of its employees as the company continues to explore more on the payments-first strategy, following days they announced acquisitions of up to $250 million.

Although the company has not officially verified the extent of the layoffs, various sources and posts on social media by employees indicate that up to 30% of employees might have been impacted by the changes and were more related to post-acquisition integration and not financial distress.

Polygon Aligns Teams Around Payments Vision After Coinme, Sequence BuyoutsThe reported layoffs follow Polygon’s announcement that it had agreed to acquire U.S. crypto payments firm Coinme and wallet and developer platform Sequence.

The two deals, together valued at more than $250 million, are intended to form the backbone of what Polygon calls its “Open Money Stack,” a vertically integrated system designed to move money onchain using stablecoins.

The strategy marks a clear narrowing of Polygon Labs’ focus, shifting away from broad ecosystem expansion toward regulated payments infrastructure, wallets, and settlement rails.

Polygon CEO Marc Boiron framed the restructuring as part of a deliberate effort to sharpen the company’s mission.

In a post on X, Boiron said Polygon had spent recent months aligning around a single goal of moving all money onchain, and that the acquisitions brought in teams with deep expertise.

Over the past few months, we’ve sharpened Polygon Labs’ focus around one mission: moving all money onchain.

As part of that journey, we are acquiring Coinme and Sequence. These teams bring deep expertise across regulated payments, wallets, and interop. As we begin integrating…

— Marc | Polygon Labs (💜,⚔️, ※) (@0xMarcB) January 15, 2026 As those teams were folded into Polygon, overlapping roles were consolidated, leading to difficult staffing decisions.

Boiron stressed that the changes were structural rather than performance-based and said total headcount would remain similar after the integration, though with a heavier emphasis on payments and wallet expertise.

Coinme brings a nationwide compliance footprint that is difficult for crypto companies to build organically.

The company operates in 48 U.S. states and runs more than 50,000 retail crypto ATMs and kiosks, giving Polygon access to licensed fiat on- and off-ramps at scale.

Sequence, meanwhile, provides embedded wallets and cross-chain tooling that abstracts away complexity like gas management, bridging, and token swaps.

Departing Polygon Employees Voice Mixed Emotions After Job CutsAlthough Polygon did not disclose how many employees were let go, former staff members began confirming exits shortly after the news broke.

Several described the layoffs as painful but expressed optimism about Polygon’s direction.

One former senior ecosystem figure said they were proud of what the team had built and remained confident about the future of the protocol.

My friends, I’m also part of the layoffs, but can honestly say I’m wildly a) proud and b) optimistic about what’s next for Polygon, for those affected, and for me. There has never been a better time to be a builder, and that is even more true today.

If any folks need a reconnect… https://t.co/hqIQKNf3KK

— Mattie Fairchild (@Scav) January 15, 2026 Others publicly began searching for new roles across operations, business development, and ecosystem management, showing the breadth of functions affected by the restructuring.

The cuts are not Polygon’s first attempt to streamline operations.

Over the past two years, the company has gone through multiple restructurings, including a roughly 19% workforce reduction and the spin-off of Polygon Ventures and Polygon ID in early 2024.

Executives at the time said those moves were designed to reduce complexity and focus resources.

Polygon maintains that its financial position remains solid, as since the beginning of January 2026, Polygon’s protocol fee revenue has exceeded $1.7 million, suggesting the layoffs were driven by strategic reprioritization rather than a lack of capital.

Polygon’s move comes amid a broader wave of restructuring across the crypto industry as companies reassess costs and focus areas after years of rapid expansion.

This week, Mantra announced job cuts and a shift to a leaner operating model following a steep collapse in its OM token and prolonged market pressure.

In July 2025, Consensys, the Ethereum software firm behind MetaMask, reportedly laid off about 7% of its workforce as part of a realignment following an acquisition.

Ripple says trading and payment activity for its U.S. dollar stablecoin RLUSD is likely to move increasingly toward the XRP Ledger over time, as institutions look for faster and cheaper blockchain rails.

Speaking in a recent interview, Ripple executive Reece Merrick said most RLUSD activity currently sits on Ethereum, but that balance could change as users see the benefits of the XRP Ledger.

RLUSD adoption grows under Middle East regulationRipple said demand for RLUSD accelerated after the company secured regulatory approvals in the Middle East.

Earlier this year, Ripple received approval from the Abu Dhabi Global Market regulator to use RLUSD as a recognized U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin within its licensed zone. Similar approval was also granted by Dubai’s financial regulator.

Ripple said it has now processed more than $90 billion in payments globally and released RLUSD in late 2025 after clients asked for stablecoin-based U.S. dollar payouts. The stablecoin’s market value currently stands at around $1.3 billion.

“These approvals give institutions confidence that they can use stablecoins from this region with regulatory clarity,” he said.

Majority of RLUSD still on Ethereum, for nowRipple said over 70% of global stablecoin activity currently takes place on Ethereum, which is why RLUSD launched on both Ethereum and the XRP Ledger.

At present, roughly 30% to 35% of RLUSD supply sits on the XRP Ledger, with the remainder on Ethereum. Ripple expects that share to grow.

Merrick said users are beginning to shift activity as they recognize that transactions on the XRP Ledger settle in seconds and cost a fraction of a cent.

“Over time we expect a lot of that volume to move over and eventually eclipse what sits on Ethereum,” he said.

Institutions driving XRP Ledger usageRipple said the strongest demand for XRP Ledger-based stablecoin payments is coming from institutions rather than retail traders.

The company recently acquired treasury management firm GTreasury, which works with global businesses moving trillions of dollars between entities. Ripple said interest surged after the deal, with large enterprises exploring RLUSD to manage global funding more efficiently.

Ripple said that businesses can move funds 24 hours a day, including weekends, instead of relying on traditional banking cut-off times.

“That’s where we unlock growth,” he added, pointing to real-time settlement as a major advantage.

XRP Ledger built for payments, Ripple saysRipple reiterated that the XRP Ledger was designed specifically for payments and cross-border value transfer.

Payments on the network typically settle in two to three seconds, making it attractive for banks, companies and institutions moving funds globally.

Ripple said it remains positive that RLUSD growth will strengthen the XRP Ledger ecosystem and increase long-term utility for XRP, as demand shifts toward faster, lower-cost blockchain infrastructure.

Trust with CoinPedia:CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017. All content is created by our expert panel of analysts and journalists, following strict Editorial Guidelines based on E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness). Every article is fact-checked against reputable sources to ensure accuracy, transparency, and reliability. Our review policy guarantees unbiased evaluations when recommending exchanges, platforms, or tools. We strive to provide timely updates about everything crypto & blockchain, right from startups to industry majors.

Investment Disclaimer:All opinions and insights shared represent the author's own views on current market conditions. Please do your own research before making investment decisions. Neither the writer nor the publication assumes responsibility for your financial choices.

Sponsored and Advertisements:Sponsored content and affiliate links may appear on our site. Advertisements are marked clearly, and our editorial content remains entirely independent from our ad partners.

Interactive Brokers has started supporting USDC for funding a brokerage account, which is instantly convertible to USD. Client accounts can be funded 24/7 on Ethereum, Solana, and Base through zerohash. Support for RLUSD and PYUSD will roll out next week, with stablecoins gaining popularity. Interactive Brokers has further bolstered its services related to cryptocurrencies, with the company now allowing its clients to use stablecoins to fund their brokerage accounts, ensuring faster settlements and 24/7 access for account funding. As soon as the stablecoins are received, the transfer will be automatically settled in USD, allowing clients to fund their trading accounts.

Interactive Brokers announced on Thursday that it teamed up with cryptocurrency infrastructure company zerohash in a partnership that aims to enable the funding of stablecoin accounts on the Ethereum, Solana, and Base networks. The new system will enable clients to make their USDC deposits at any hour of the day, and such deposits will be credited in USD when they are received.

This upgrade will improve brokerage funding, especially in cases involving global clients, who often suffer from delays or high fees when transacting via fiat wires.

24/7 funding replaces wire-transfer friction Interactive Brokers positioned stablecoins as a response to a historical bottleneck in access to the global capital markets. In conventional cross-border deposits, funding access is organized through bank processing windows or cut-off times that incur fees charged by third-party institutions.

Stablecoins upset the applecart. With USDC, the transaction settlement happens on-chain, so their customers can transmit their money at any given time with near-instant verification and start trading in minutes, not days.

“Stablecoin funding gives international investors the speed and flexibility necessary to thrive under today’s market conditions,” said CEO Milan Galik. He further added that it gives traders the benefit of being able to transfer their funds as well as trade as soon as possible, thereby lowering transaction costs compared to the usual wire route.

Since Interactive Brokers immediately converts USDC to USD when received, it prevents customers from maintaining balances of stablecoins within the brokerage. This ensures that the funding mechanism remains straightforward and that it is easier to align it with conventional account settlement systems.

More stablecoins incoming next week Interactive Brokers also said it plans to expand beyond USDC shortly. Support for Ripple USD (RLUSD) and PayPal USD (PYUSD) is expected to roll out next week, giving clients more funding options depending on the networks and issuers they prefer.

The brokerage first introduced stablecoin funding for retail investors in December, when it allowed certain account types to deposit USDC. The new expansion broadens the stablecoin rails and strengthens the firm’s infrastructure by adding multi-chain support.

Interactive Brokers has also explored launching its own stablecoin in the past, according to earlier reporting, suggesting long-term interest in tokenized settlement as part of its financial product strategy.

Crypto trading expansion continues Interactive Brokers ventured into cryptocurrency trading in the year 2021 by combining digital assets with its vast platforms. It started by supporting well-known cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Later, it added more cryptocurrencies to the list.

In 2025, the brokerage added other assets such as Solana (SOL) and XRP, reflecting growing client demands for broader exposure. The upgrade to its stablecoin funding now complements those services with better means for clients to get money onto the platform.

Stablecoin growth supports adoption The timing also coincides with the wider trend. Throughout 2025, stablecoins increased sharply as governments, banks, fintech firms, and payment platforms began exploring tokenized dollars for faster settlement and cross-border transfers.

Stablecoin market capitalization surpassed $300 billion in October, driven by strong growth in major issues such as Tether (USDT) and Circle’s USDC, as well as newer products like Ethena’s yield-bearing USDe. As of Friday, the stablecoin sector sits above $310 billion, according to DeFi data aggregator DeFiLlama.

Now that Interactive Brokers offers stablecoin funding, the brokerage industry keeps chugging along toward these blockchain-based settlement rails, with the indication that more and more, stablecoins act as financial infrastructure, not just crypto-native tooling.

Highlighted Crypto News:

Cake Wallet Expands Privacy Stack With Default Zcash Shielding

2 mins mins

Key Points:

Binance postponed AIA USDT contract launch, leaving traders uncertain.Market’s historical responses to crypto postponements remain mixed.Increased trading volume suggests investor interest despite the delay. On January 16, 2026, Binance delayed the launch of the AIA USDT perpetual contract, with a new date to be announced.

The postponement highlights uncertainties surrounding DeAgent AI’s contract, affecting traders’ strategic planning amidst a volatile crypto market, with stakeholders awaiting further updates from Binance.

Binance Delays AIA USDT Launch Indefinitely Binance, the world-renowned cryptocurrency exchange, postponed the launch of its AIA USDT perpetual contract due to undisclosed reasons. This unforeseen delay has left the trading community speculating on the underlying causes. No new launch date has been provided, creating a wait-and-see atmosphere among investors.

This postponement follows previous actions in 2025 involving AIA contracts, including a delisting and a temporary suspension.

Responses from the cryptocurrency community and stakeholders have been relatively muted, with no major statements from key figures or officials at Binance. The exchange’s leadership has yet to comment publicly on the postponed launch, maintaining their typically guarded communication strategy.

“We can summarize the findings as follows: There are no identifiable quotes from Binance leadership or DeAgent AI team members pertaining to the status of the AIA USDT perpetual contract.” AIA Token Experiences Price Surge Despite Delay Did you know? Binance’s previous handling of AIA USDT contract delistings typically involves temporary suspensions, providing a precedent for their current postponement without an immediate alternative.

DeAgentAI, identified by the symbol AIA, currently trades at $0.14. It has a market cap of approximately $20.75 million and a 24-hour trading volume of $15.93 million, marking a significant 585.57% increase. Recent price changes include a 39.74% rise over 24 hours, although the token has dropped 84.07% over 90 days, according to CoinMarketCap.

DeAgentAI(AIA), daily chart, screenshot on CoinMarketCap at 15:08 UTC on January 16, 2026. Source: CoinMarketCap Experts from the Coincu research team highlight the lack of regulatory updates directly affecting this postponement. They emphasize that while the market may see short-term volatility, DeAgentAI discusses future AI trends and implications which might affect the crypto landscape. Long-term technological developments in crypto trading are likely to overshadow current delays.

DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.

Rate this post

We had high hopes for the bitcoin price in 2025. It was supposed to be the crescendo of the four-year cycle, the most bullish setup in recent memory. It was the year after the halving, the ETFs had just been approved, a new president was elected, with the promise of the money printer roaring back to life. Everything looked primed for a Q4 blow-off top, and instead of a new life in Monaco, all you got was this lousy article.

What follows is my interpretation of the events of 2025 and my outlook for 2026. I’m not a trader, not an analyst, and like you, I’ve been outperforming professional funds for years, by simply stacking Sats, of course. I’m more of a “fix the money, fix the world” kinda guy, but like everyone else, it’s hard to ignore Bitcoin’s price movements, which I think of as the game of “Snakes and Ladders”.

The bitcoin price as a game of Snakes and Ladders. In the game of Snakes and Ladders, momentum drives us forward, but it can also provide a false sense of confidence. You can be one roll away from victory, only to land on a snake that sends you sliding back ten places. As much as hopium dictates that we pray for the price to go ‘up and to the right’, markets rarely oblige. Switching from the board to the chart, price action is played on a board of global liquidity and market sentiment. When sentiment is low or liquidity dries up, no amount of good news can sustain momentum. We simply crab sideways or find a snake that slides us down into further despair.

On the other hand, when liquidity floods the system, we often find the ladders that shoot us through resistance levels. For most of 2025, we were stuck playing the former, while dreaming of the “ladder”. So let’s take this time to review 2025 from the perspective of hindsight, as foresight proved to be of little benefit.

What Happened To Our 2025 Bull Run? If there is a phrase that defines the Bitcoin market of 2025, it is exactly that: a Year of Snakes and precious few ladders. Interestingly, and unbeknownst to me, 2025 was indeed the year of the snake according to the 12-year Chinese zodiac cycle, starting January 29, 2025, and ending February 16, 2026.

The bitcoin price in 2025, overlayed with the Chinese Year of the Snake. We began the year with the kind of euphoria that usually marks a cycle top. The halving was behind us, and the political stars had aligned perfectly. Google trends showed search queries were soaring. In fact, the year kicked off with a quiet but massive victory before the political fireworks even started: FASB fair value accounting rules took effect on January 1st, finally allowing companies to report bitcoin profits rather than just losses.

Then came the main event. We witnessed the inauguration of a “Bitcoin President.” Gary Gensler departed, leaving behind a legacy that, in hindsight, was perhaps less villainous than we assumed, and Ross Ulbricht walked free within 48 hours. With the new administration came a few allies: Paul Atkins took over the SEC and Mike Selig the CFTC, securing a pro-crypto cabinet.

The financial plumbing was finally completed. The ETFs were fully operational, options trading on IBIT were unleashed, and it quickly became clear that Michael Saylor was not about to let Larry Fink steal his thunder. MicroStrategy went on a $25 billion buying spree, 100x what they bought in 2020, and the corporate treasury list exploded from 60 companies to nearly 200.

By October, the engines were well and truly revving. We hit the All-Time High on October 6th, ready to punch the accelerator for the glorious Q4 end-of-cycle run. Instead, we shifted the gear into reverse and slid all the way down to $80,000.

First, we got our knickers in a twist over the “Knots vs. Core” drama. Then came the Binance incident, where the snake manifested itself as a “technical issue” at precisely the wrong time, and right as Gold broke out. We essentially got rug-pulled by a glitch. The issue of October 10th likely created added sell pressure through forced liquidations, whilst also triggering the 4-year cycle sellers who have been trained to sell Q4 of the 4th year. Few understood the gravity of it at the time, though I tip my hat to Jesse Olson for calling it early.

Then the FUD machine was turned on. First, it targeted MicroStrategy with threats of MSCI exclusion; it didn’t help sentiment that its mNAV has been dropping all year. Then it pivoted back to Bitcoin with the return of the “quantum attack” narrative.

While the headlines swirled, the bitcoin price became stuck in purgatory, range-bound between $84,000 and $95,000 and trapped by options traders, even though the handcuffs had theoretically been taken off IBIT options earlier in the year. Bitcoin was having an Austin Powers moment, while Peter Schiff enjoyed his first day out in the sun since high school. Bless him.

Is The Tide About to Turn? While some fear 2026 will bring the hangover of a post-cycle bear market, I, like countless other optimists believe otherwise. If 2025 was the year of snakes, 2026 is the year we finally climb a few ladders.

The setup is favourable. We have a Bitcoin-ish president, who’s hungry to fire up the printing press, we’ve a developing multipolar world, where the process of game theory should be heating up, there’s a $7 trillion debt wall to be paid, the old guard are positioned, the regulation stranglehold has been loosened, the cowboys (FTX, Terra-Luna, etc.) are gone, gold and silver have both had their runs, and Bitcoin’s supposed to follow next, or so we hope. 

Source: Sminston With

Not to mention, the tax year is done, and new budgets have been allocated to fund managers and businesses alike. FASB fair value accounting is now live, smoothing the runway for corporate balance sheets. Michael Saylor is still buying with the relentless intensity of a man who understands math better than Archimedes. Even the “MSCI FUD” was defeated early, so credit to George and the Bitcoin for Corporations team for that victory.

At the point in time as the price is beginning to climb higher, the bears are finally showing signs of exhaustion, that’s according to James Check and countless others. By far the most significant headwind Bitcoin faced in 2025 was the relentless onslaught of coins sold by long-term holders. That pressure looks to finally be ending. On November 1st, approximately 67% of the Realised Cap was invested above $95k. The last two months have seen a massive supply redistribution occur, with that metric declining to 47%.

Over the last 30 days, around 80% of the coins which have transacted came from higher prices. This is the definition of capitulation. The weak hands who bought the top have flushed out, and new buyers have stepped in with a lower and stronger cost basis.

Incidentally, the Year of the Snake officially ends on February 16, 2026, to be followed by a horse, which as we all know has the ability to outrun any bull. This coincides almost perfectly with the monthly CME Futures expiry on February 27th. The shedding of a snake’s skin happens right before the growth returns. 

Is the 4-Year Cycle Dead? Really, who can truly say they know? What we do know is that the four-year cycle is no longer connected to the halvings or the presidential cycles in the way we once thought, and the halvings are less likely to have an effect going forward, as the new coins distributed are a lower percentage of supply, and the miners are supported by huge funds which can help them weather any potential death spiral.

We have not seen a Pi Cycle top signal, the 200 week moving average has not crossed the prior cycle top, the MVRV score is just 1.3, the Puell multiple is just .99, we’ve not had a considerable drawdown, and we’re still at the bottom of the range of almost every metric imaginable. For those of you who are old enough to remember the KitKat ad from the 90’s, “the 4 year cycle is not dead, it was just takin’ a break.”

As the 4-year cycle is a purely Liquidity Based Cycle, it can be measured by proxy using the ISM Manufacturing PMI, a qualitative index sourced from purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. I give credit to Raoul Pal for highlighting this metric; he was the first I observed to point out that bitcoin is a “Liquidity” asset rather than a “Halving” asset. Bitcoin, as the highest-beta risk asset in existence, responds to shifts in global risk appetite with greater force and speed than any other asset class. The PMI tracks the business cycle, and it has been in contraction for nearly two years. The current PMI at 47.9 signals ongoing contraction, but ISM projections indicate a 4.4% revenue growth for manufacturing in 2026, crossing 50 in Q2 as Trump’s policies kick in. The bitcoin price should follow. When the ISM PMI is below 50, we’re generally in a bear market, and we’ve been that way for over two years now. The bull markets have historically topped out between 55 and 65. The question remains, when is the business cycle going to see an upturn? TechDev is of the view that it’s happening very soon, as the bullish divergence reversal momentum is decidedly building.

Source: Sminston With

The $9 Trillion Debt Question The US government has to address the $9 trillion debt wall that’s due to mature this year. But the nuance is in how they do it. President Trump has made it clear he intends to build a “Dream Military” for 2027 and is pushing for a budget increase to $1.5 trillion. When you combine that with the $4.1 trillion of debt maturing in 2026 and the standard annual deficit, the US Treasury faces a $9 trillion liquidity gap, and a further $7.4 trillion before 2028. 

Does the US have to print all $9 trillion? No. And through this lens, the recent geopolitical moves make sense. Trump didn’t only capture Maduro for a photo-op; he has likely taken control over 303B barrels of reserves and is enforcing USD oil sales, creating artificial dollar demand and easing the liquidity gap by $2-3T annually. 

Can he cover the gap via a mix of tariffs (that Americans actually pay for!), Petro-Dollar demand, and the inevitable monetization of the rest by the Federal Reserve? I guess he’ll have to. With Jerome Powell expected to leave his chair in May, the path will be cleared to give the printer engines a whir. 

There’s another $5 – $10 tr due globally in 2026, and the same again in 2027. So the fed chair won’t be without company. 

My View: 2026–2027 The four-year cycle OGs may be stepping aside, but the Liquidity Cycle is just gearing up, and Bitcoin, as Raoul Pal has long argued, remains the ultimate liquidity barometer.

Samuel Benner’s famous 19th-century forecasting chart (first published in 1875), maps long-term cycles of panics (“A” years), booms/high prices (“B” years), and depressions/low prices (“C” years). Interestingly, 2026 falls squarely in one of Benner’s “B” years, which is a period of “Good Times, High Prices and the time to sell Stocks and values of all kinds.” The chart places 2026 right alongside previous boom years like 2016, 2007, 1999, and 1989, suggesting we are entering a structurally favorable window for risk assets.

How Long Will The Next Money Printing Last? Prediction: 18–24 months

Why: History shows that once the dam gates open, it takes roughly two years to stabilize and reflate. If the official aggressive printing phase begins in late 2025 (as the liquidity uptick and Benner timeline imply, and as M2 shows), it will likely run strong through mid-2027.

How Much LIquidity Will Be Added? Prediction: ~$9–$10 trillion in the U.S. Treasury debt is maturing in 2026 alone (about one-third of outstanding marketable debt) and a further $5 – $10 tr globally.

Why: As discussed above, the maturity walls for 2026 are nearly double what we faced during the COVID crisis. Yellen extended the pain by leaning on short-term issuance back then, but come hell or high water, that debt has to be paid or refinanced—the money will arrive from somewhere. Because of this, we can expect a new wave of inflation, the 70’s and 80’s have a story to tell about that!

How High Will The Bitcoin Price Go? Prediction: $250,000

Why: During that $5 trillion COVID expansion, BTC rallied roughly 20x from the $3k–$4k lows to $69k. With the potential for double that liquidity entering the system this cycle, the upside is significant even if diminishing returns apply. From our $16k effective low, a conservative 10x to 12x multiple lands us in the $160k to $200k range as a base case. However, models suggest we could push higher. PlanC’s quantile model points toward $300k+ by the end of 2026, and Giovanni Santostasi’s Power Law projects a peak potentially around $210k early on, with room to stretch as high as $600k in outlier scenarios. But hey, I was expecting +$200k last cycle too.

Oh, if the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act moves out of the committee, and if the U.S. Treasury officially starts side-stacking alongside MicroStrategy, all bets are off the table.

When Will The Price Top Out? Prediction: Late 2026 to mid-2027

The Logic: Bitcoin historically tops out 12–18 months after the liquidity expansion enters its “mania” phase. If the ISM Manufacturing PMI crosses back above 50 in early 2026, the perfect storm should unfold throughout 2026, setting up a blow-off top, potentially in the first half of 2027.

Bitcoin is unlikely to go straight up, nothing ever does. We’ll almost certainly encounter a few snakes along the way: sharp corrections, regulatory noise, profit-taking, or some form of shenanigans. But the ladders are built, ready and waiting. The Year of the Snake is coming to an end, just ahead of the February 27 CME futures expiry, our potential ignition point, right before the anticipated PMI uptick in Q2.

2025 was a year of snakes and sideways pain, with long-term holders finally capitulated and weak hands flushed out. Now, with a wall of liquidity heading our way, 2026 looks like the ladder we’ve been waiting for. The horse year is coming, so stack and secure accordingly.

Good luck. 

Bitcoin Faces Possible Collapse in 7 to 11 Years, Warns Cyber Capital FounderJustin Bons predicts Bitcoin could collapse within 7 to 11 years due to falling security budgets and increased 51% attack risk.Bons warns about potential bank run scenarios where congestion could leave transactions stuck.He believes Bitcoin faces an impossible choice between raising supply or risking vulnerability.Cyber Capital founder and chief investment officer Justin Bons has predicted that Bitcoin (BTC) could collapse within 7 to 11 years.

He pointed to declining security budgets, a rising risk of 51% attacks, and what he calls impossible choices for the network. Bons warns that these fundamental vulnerabilities may erode trust and even lead to chain splits.

Sponsored

Sponsored

Bitcoin’s Economic Security Model Under Scrutiny Over the years, experts have raised alarms about several risks to Bitcoin, most notably quantum computing, which may undermine current cryptographic standards.

However, in a detailed post, Bons outlined a different category of concern. He argued that Bitcoin’s long-term threat lies in its economic security model.

“BTC will collapse within 7 to 11 years from now! First, the mining industry will fall, as the security budget shrinks. That is when the attacks begin; censorship & double-spends,” he wrote.

At the center of his argument is Bitcoin’s declining security budget. After each halving, miner rewards drop by half, reducing the incentive to secure the network.

The most recent halving was in April 2024, with more scheduled every four years. Bons contended that to maintain its current level of security, Bitcoin would require either sustained exponential price growth or permanently high transaction fees, both of which he considers unrealistic.

Bitcoin’s Declining Security Budget. Source: X/Justin BonsSponsored

Sponsored

Declining Miner Revenue and Rising Attack RiskAccording to Bons, miner revenue, rather than raw hashrate, is the most meaningful measure of network security. He highlighted that as hardware efficiency improves, hashrate can rise even while the cost of producing hashes falls, making it a misleading indicator of attack resistance.

In his view, declining miner revenue directly lowers the cost of attacking the network. Once the cost of mounting a 51% attack falls below the potential gains from double-spending or disruption, such attacks become economically rational.

“Crypto-economic game theory relies on punishment & reward, carrots & sticks. This is why miner revenue determines the cost of an attack. When it comes to the reward side of the calculation: Double-spending, with 51% attacks targeting exchanges, is a highly realistic attack vector due to the massive potential rewards,” the post read.

Currently, transaction fees account for only a small portion of miner income. As block subsidies approach zero over the coming decades, Bitcoin would need to rely almost entirely on fees to secure the network. However, Bitcoin’s limited block space caps transaction throughput and therefore total fee revenue.

Bons further claimed that sustained high fees are unlikely, as users tend to exit the network during fee spikes, preventing fees from reliably replacing block subsidies over the long term.

Sponsored

Sponsored

Congestion, Bank-Run Dynamics, and a Potential Death SpiralApart from concerns about the security budget, Bons warned of potential “bank-run” scenarios. According to him,

“Even according to the most conservative estimates, if every current BTC user only did one transaction, the queue would be 1.82 months long!”

He explained that during panic events, the network may be unable to process withdrawals quickly enough, effectively trapping users through congestion and rising fees. This creates conditions similar to a bank run.

Bons also pointed to Bitcoin’s two-week difficulty adjustment mechanism as a compounding risk. In the event of a sharp price decline, unprofitable miners could shut down, slowing block production until the next adjustment.

“As the panic would cause the price to crash, which in turn causes more miners to shut down, which in turn slows the chain down even more, causing even more panic & the price to crash again & even more miners shutting down, etc, etc; ad infinitum…That is known as a vicious cycle in game theory, also referred to as a negative feedback loop or a death spiral,” he remarked.

Sponsored

Sponsored

He further added that such congestion risks make mass self-custody unsafe during periods of stress, warning that users may be unable to exit the network when demand spikes.

An Unavoidable Dilemma for BitcoinBons concluded that Bitcoin faces a fundamental dilemma. One option would be to increase the total supply beyond the 21 million coin limit to preserve miner incentives and network security. However, he noted this would undermine Bitcoin’s core value proposition and likely lead to a chain split.

The alternative, he said, is to tolerate a steadily weakening security model, increasing exposure to attacks and censorship.

“The most likely outcome is that in 7–11 years from now, both of the options I described & more occur simultaneously,” Bons wrote.

He also tied the issue to the legacy of the block size wars, arguing that governance constraints within Bitcoin Core make meaningful protocol changes politically unlikely until a crisis forces action. By that point, he warns, it may already be too late.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

In a recent episode of Ripple's on-chain economy series, Robert Kiuru, COO of  XRPL Labs and Xaman Wallet, explains the next frontier of the XRP Ledger ecosystem: batch transactions.

In episode 8 of the Onchain Economy series, Kiuru explains how batch transactions will allow multiple actions to be executed together on XRP, allowing wallets and infrastructure providers to bundle services, charge fees and operate sustainably.

The XRPL Labs COO stated that, from his own perspective, batch transactions might unlock the new frontier for the XRP Ledger ecosystem.

HOT Stories

If we want the $XRP Ledger to be sustainable, the focus must shift to building and operating proper businesses on the ledger.

Products used in any market, with proper security and support, teams that survive downturns without disappearing.

In other news, I think I thought 🤣 https://t.co/2thfj2yKcH

— Robert @XamanWallet (@robertkiuru) January 15, 2026 This is because the batch transactions feature is expected to make it easier for developers to build apps that can generate revenue directly on-chain.

Kiuru mentioned the current scenario of a fairly fixed function ledger when it comes to the business side of things, that monetizing a product has been almost impossible. He believes that batch transactions would allow everyone to either take a fee or figure out a different angle to monetize their services.

Batch transactionsThe XRP Ledger enables fast and efficient transactions without the need for complex smart contracts at every step. However, a key limitation exists: multiple transactions cannot be executed atomically. This means that if a complex operation requires several transactions, a failure in one can leave the system in an incomplete or unexpected state.

A batch transaction allows multiple transactions to be packaged together and executed as a single unit.

The batch transactions feature is expected to make it even easier for developers to build apps that can generate revenue directly on-chain.

The amendment will make it much easier to offer paid features, automate flows, build apps that generate revenue and prepare XRP Ledger to support serious financial apps.

Batch Transactions (XLS-56), introduced last year through the rippled v2.5.0 release, is still being voted upon, currently at 67.65% consensus, with 23 validators voting in support and 11 against.

For the amendment to enter activation timer, it must attain a majority, with 80% consensus from validators - that is, with 27 out of 34 voting in support. 

Blockchain-based payments firm Ripple is investing $150 million in LMAX Group as part of a multi-year partnership aimed at pushing its US dollar-backed stablecoin, Ripple USD (RLUSD), into institutional trading.

Ripple Pours $150 Million Into LMAX Deal As part of the deal, LMAX Group will integrate RLUSD as a core collateral asset across its global institutional trading infrastructure. According to the Thursday press release, the integration will enable banks, brokers, and buy-side firms to utilize the stablecoin for margin and settlement across spot crypto, perpetual futures, CFDs, and select fiat crosses. 

Therefore, as part of the partnership, Ripple will advance $150 million as financial support for LMAX’s long-term cross-asset expansion strategy. Ripple stated that the financing highlights its strong commitment to boosting the convergence of traditional and digital capital markets.

“This is a strategic partnership,” David Mercer, CEO of LMAX Group, said in a statement. “The backing from Ripple supports our long-term plan to create a unified, regulated marketplace that spans FX and crypto.”

Stablecoins As Tools For Institutional Market Access The alliance positions RLUSD as a bridge between traditional market infrastructure and on-chain settlement, as institutions look into stablecoins as an alternative to fiat for collateral mobility and 24/7 access. 

Advertisement  

According to the announcement, the RLUSD token will also be available via LMAX Custody using segregated wallets and via LMAX Kiosk, allowing round-the-clock collateral utility across FX and crypto products. 

Ripple’s senior vice president of stablecoins, Jack McDonald, said institutional clients are increasingly exploring blockchain-based infrastructure to overhaul financial markets. The exec believes the collaboration would boost the use of RLUSD within one of the industry’s largest institutional trading environments, citing LMAX’s regulated exchange infrastructure, with $8.2 trillion in institutional trading volume last year.

The partnership also includes Ripple Prime’s integration with LMAX’s exchange, giving Ripple Prime customers access to deeper institutional liquidity and unified credit infrastructure.

RLUSD, launched in December 2024, currently has a market capitalization of $1.38 billion, according to crypto data aggregator CoinGecko. 

TL;DR

KBC will let retail clients trade Bitcoin and Ether in Bolero from Feb. 16, with coins held in the bank’s custody. KBC says it filed a crypto asset service provider notification and is aligning the offer with MiCA, pitching a regulated alternative to separate venues. Belgium made MiCA effective on Jan. 3, 2026, yet ESMA’s register shows no licenses; KBC’s early rollout will test EU debates on passporting and oversight. Belgium’s KBC is bringing crypto into the core banking stack, saying retail clients will soon be able to buy and sell Bitcoin and Ether inside Bolero, its self-directed investment platform, with assets held in the bank’s own custody. The rollout is slated for Feb. 16, and KBC markets it as a secure, fully regulated experience it calls a first for Belgium. KBC is betting that mainstream adoption follows when crypto looks, feels, and is serviced like banking. For customers, that means one login, one risk perimeter, familiar controls, and a channel built for everyday investors.

MiCA compliance meets Belgium’s late-start launch window KBC says it has filed a full crypto asset service provider notification and considers the service aligned with the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation, or MiCA. Chief innovation officer Erik Luts framed the move as making innovation “concrete and accessible” within a regulated framework. The bank says trading will run on its custodial architecture and will start with Bitcoin and Ether only, keeping scope tight as onboarding scales. It is pitching this inside a regulated environment, not a separate crypto venue. The operating model is compliance-first distribution, designed to convert rule clarity into retail volume.

The timing is notable because Belgium’s national implementation only recently snapped into place. While MiCA entered into full force across the EU in late 2025, Belgium published its implementing law in December 2025 and made MiCA legally effective on Jan. 3, 2026. The law designates the Financial Services and Markets Authority and the National Bank of Belgium as supervisors for crypto asset markets. For a bank, that translates into governance checklists, custody controls, and disclosures that must map to the new regime. This sequencing matters, because product launches depend on who supervises what, and when.

There is a gap between rulebooks and visible licensing: no MiCA licenses have yet appeared in the register maintained by ESMA. KBC first announced plans to add BTC and ETH trading via Bolero in July 2025, pending regulatory approval expected by year-end, and it has not said which authority it coordinated with ahead of launch. It now positions itself as an early adopter. In an EU debate over passporting and centralized oversight, KBC’s launch will pressure-test how MiCA works in day-to-day banking. France has pushed for stronger ESMA supervision, while Malta has warned about overcentralization.

The apparent shutdown follows years of scrutiny over one of crypto's largest fraud marketplaces.

Bitcoin remained steady around the $95,000 mark as Asian equities experienced a lift, driven by optimism surrounding artificial intelligence advancements. The rise in stock markets follows robust earnings reports from semiconductor companies and the signing of a trade agreement between the United States and Taiwan.

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is often seen as a barometer for investor sentiment in the digital asset space. Its stability at this price level is noteworthy amidst evolving economic contexts and technological developments. This stability in Bitcoin’s price comes at a time when market participants are closely watching for any shifts that could influence cryptocurrency valuations.

Asian stock markets responded positively to developments in the technology sector, particularly with strong earnings announced by key chip manufacturers. These companies have benefited from increasing demand for semiconductors, which are critical components in the development and deployment of artificial intelligence technologies. The enthusiasm around AI has not only driven stock prices up but has also heightened interest in related sectors.

The recent trade agreement between the United States and Taiwan is another factor contributing to market gains. This deal is expected to bolster economic ties and facilitate smoother trade relations between the two regions. For investors, such agreements often signal a reduction in geopolitical tensions and an increase in economic collaboration, which can lead to more stable markets.

Bitcoin’s steadiness is observed as market participants weigh the impact of regulatory developments and broader economic conditions. The cryptocurrency market has been subject to increased scrutiny from regulators globally, focusing on factors such as custody solutions, market integrity, and investor protection. These elements are crucial as the market matures and more institutional investors consider entering the space.

Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) linked to Bitcoin are a topic of significant interest as issuers continue to file for approvals. These financial products offer a regulated way for investors to gain exposure to cryptocurrencies without directly holding them. The approval process for such ETFs typically involves rigorous review by regulators, with emphasis on ensuring market integrity and investor protection.

As the largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin is closely watched by both retail and institutional investors. Its performance often influences the wider cryptocurrency market, which includes other significant digital assets like Ethereum and Solana. Solana, known for its smart contract capabilities, is often compared to Ethereum due to its application potential in decentralized finance (DeFi) and other blockchain-based solutions.

Market risks associated with cryptocurrencies remain a consideration for investors. These include volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and operational risks inherent in digital asset trading. Additionally, tracking error and fees are important aspects for those investing in crypto-related financial products like ETFs.

In the competitive landscape, multiple financial institutions have shown interest in launching similar cryptocurrency-linked products. This competition can influence timelines and lead to amendments in filings as issuers aim to meet regulatory expectations. Such dynamics mean that investors often face uncertainty regarding the approval and launch dates of new crypto products.

Going forward, stakeholders in the cryptocurrency and financial markets are likely to monitor further regulatory developments, economic data releases, and technological advancements. Review periods for regulatory approvals, including potential amendments and requests for public comment, remain critical focus areas. These factors will likely shape the next steps in cryptocurrency market evolution.

In summary, Bitcoin’s maintained price level amid rising Asian stocks reflects broader market sentiment influenced by technological advancements and geopolitical developments. The coming months are expected to bring further clarity on regulatory fronts and potential shifts in investor behavior as new products and technologies continue to emerge.

Post Views: 1

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

Samson Mow, a vocal Bitcoin proponent and CEO of JAN3, who is focused on Bitcoin nation-state adoption, has once again drawn the community’s attention to unique BTC features that make it the most decentralized digital currency on the market. Mow is known as one of the believers that BTC is definitely going to surge to $1 million in the near future.

Today, he took to his X account to remind the audience about the thing that makes Bitcoin what it is and drives Wall Street to chase it — the programmed scarcity of this cryptocurrency.

Mow issues important messageSamson Mow reminded the crypto community that there can only exist 21 million Bitcoin. In his tweet, he predicted that this feature of BTC will play a crucial role in the near future and have a huge impact on the world of finance: “The world is about to learn the meaning of absolute scarcity.”

HOT Stories

The world is about to learn the meaning of absolute scarcity.

— Samson Mow (@Excellion) January 16, 2026 It is worth noting that more than 19 million coins have already been mined. Besides, the Bitcoin mining mechanism includes so-called halvings, created to make BTC deflationary. Every four years, miners’ rewards get cut by half, thus less BTC gets injected into circulation every four years.

You Might Also Like

JAN3 boss reveals when Bitcoin may surge to $1 millionEarlier this week, Samson Mow shared the time period when he expects Bitcoin to definitely skyrocket to $1 million, and perhaps even higher. This time frame is 2031-2033. He reckons that it will be possible since Bitcoin is likely to add roughly $150,000 to its price every year before then.

During some of those years, he expects Bitcoin to print Omega candles, while in some years, Bitcoin may trade sideways, letting investors stock up on it.

What's more, Mow believes that if either option hits strong enough, Bitcoin may reach $1 million sooner than 2031.

At press time, Bitcoin is changing hands at $95,250. Over the past three days, the world’s bellwether cryptocurrency has demonstrated a decline of roughly 2.75%, as it rolled down from a local peak of $97,950 — the highest price level seen by BTC over the past couple of months.

Currently, Bitcoin is largely reacting to geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and other countries, including trade tariffs imposed by the U.S. on them.

Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

The XRP price is pulling significant attention on low timeframes, but not for the reason many investors might expect. While exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to the token continue to attract steady inflows, the price of XRP has moved in the opposite direction.

Over the past 24 hours, the asset slipped toward the $2.07 level, extending a short-term pullback that has puzzled traders watching strong institutional demand in the background.

This divergence between ETF activity and price performance reflects a mix of broader market weakness, technical resistance, and profit-taking after XRP’s earlier rally from the $1.80 area. Rather than reacting to negative headlines, the token’s recent decline appears driven by short-term trading dynamics.

XRP's price records some losses after an uptick on the daily chart. Source: XRPUSD on Tradingview ETF Inflows Remain Strong, But XRP Price Lags XRP ETFs have continued to record consistent inflows since their launch. Data shows that these products have accumulated more than $1.26 billion in net inflows, with no recorded outflow days so far. On January 15 alone, XRP ETFs attracted about $17 million, outperforming Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana ETFs.

Institutional interest also appears stable beyond ETFs. Exchange-held XRP balances have fallen below 2 billion tokens, down from over 4 billion in late 2025. This suggests fewer tokens are readily available for selling, a trend often associated with longer-term accumulation.

Despite these supportive factors, XRP’s price has struggled to gain momentum. The token reached $2.39 earlier in January but has since slipped back toward the $2.00–$2.10 range. Over the past week, it is down roughly 3%, even as ETF inflows remain steady.

Key Resistance at $2.13 Caps Upside Short-term technical levels are playing a major role in the XRP price behavior. The $2.13 area has acted as a strong resistance zone, with traders repeatedly selling into rallies near that level.

During the latest session, XRP fell from around $2.15 to $2.07 after being rejected near $2.13 on above-average volume. A brief spike in selling pushed the XRP price to a low near $2.059 before buyers stepped in, leading to a modest rebound.

Market structure shows a series of lower highs and lower lows, a pattern that reflects short-term bearish control. As long as XRP remains below $2.13, rallies are likely to attract selling rather than sustained buying.

Broader Market and Technical Signals Weigh on XRP The wider crypto market has also been under pressure, with the global market cap recently shedding tens of billions of dollars in a single day. In this environment, traders tend to reduce risk, even in assets with strong institutional inflows.

Adding to the cautious tone, some technical indicators have turned less supportive. On the weekly chart, the XRP price has moved below its SuperTrend line, a signal often interpreted as a shift toward bearish conditions. This has contrasted with renewed “super cycle” talk circulating on social media.

While XRP’s long-term outlook may benefit from regulatory progress in Europe and continued ETF demand, short-term price action remains driven by technical resistance and profit-taking. For now, the token appears to be consolidating rather than starting a new upward trend.

Cover image from ChatGPT, XRPUSD chart from Tradingview

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.

2 mins mins

Key Points:

Strive finalizes acquisition of Semler Scientific, enhancing BTC holdings and leadership.Strive now holds 12,797.9 bitcoins, ranks 11th in global public companies.Leadership shifts include Avik Roy’s appointment as Chief Strategy Officer. Strive, Inc. completed its acquisition of Semler Scientific, becoming the 11th largest Bitcoin holder globally with 12,797.9 BTC, appointing new leadership roles announced today.

The move positions Strive prominently in Bitcoin treasury management, potentially impacting its financial strategy and market standing amid volatile cryptocurrency landscapes.

Strive Inc. Climbs to 11th Largest Bitcoin Holder Strive Inc. (Nasdaq: ASST) completed the all-stock acquisition of Semler Scientific, adding 5,048.1 BTC from Semler to its holdings. The combined entity now ranks 11th among public companies in BTC ownership, marking a significant entry in the crypto finance landscape.

The merger introduces notable leadership changes: Avik Roy, former board member, is appointed Chief Strategy Officer. Former Semler Executive Chairman Eric Semler joins as an independent director, and Joe Burnett assumes the role of Vice President of Bitcoin Strategy at Strive.

“If there were any specific statements or quotes made by the individuals mentioned, it might typically be included in a press release or financial disclosure document.” Bitcoin’s Role in Corporate Treasury Decisions Did you know? With the Semler Scientific acquisition, Strive’s Bitcoin holdings experienced a considerable increase, reflecting a growing trend among public companies to adopt BTC as a key treasury asset.

According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently priced at $95,407.12 with a market cap of $1.91 trillion and dominates 59.05% of the market. Recent price fluctuations show a 1.59% decline over 24 hours, though there was a 5.63% increase over the past seven days.

Bitcoin(BTC), daily chart, screenshot on CoinMarketCap at 14:08 UTC on January 16, 2026. Source: CoinMarketCap Coincu’s research team highlights potential financial outcomes reflecting a strengthened position for Strive in the digital asset market. Regulatory responses remain uncertain, with no current institutional policy shifts impacting similar acquisitions. Analysts continue to evaluate market reactions.

DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.

Rate this post

Bitcoin developer, Jameson Lopp, posted a simple observation days after CoinGecko published its 2025 dead coins report.

Ignorant folks claim that Bitcoin isn't scarce because anyone can launch their own cryptocurrency. They fail to recognize that while anyone can copy code, no one can copy a network of users and infrastructure.

The timing crystallized a tension that's shaped crypto since the first Bitcoin fork. Token issuance has always been abundant, as spinning up a new coin takes minutes, not months.

But CoinGecko's latest dataset turned the “anyone can launch” argument into something measurable: 53.2% of tokens tracked on GeckoTerminal between July 2021 and December 2025 are now inactive, representing roughly 13.4 million failures out of 25.2 million listed.

The year 2025 alone accounted for 11.6 million of those deaths, 86.3% of all failures in the dataset.
This wasn't gradual attrition. The fourth quarter of 2025 saw 7.7 million tokens go dark, a pace of roughly 83,700 failures per day. For context, 2024 recorded 1.38 million failures across the entire year.

The acceleration was stark: 2025's death toll ran 8.4 times higher than 2024's, compressing what looked like multi-year churn into twelve months. CoinGecko attributes much of the fourth-quarter spike to the Oct. 10 leverage washout, which wiped out $19 billion in leveraged positions, triggering what the firm describes as a historic drawdown.

Total crypto market cap fell 10.4% year-over-year to roughly $3 trillion, with the fourth quarter alone down 23.7%. Bitcoin declined 6.4% while gold surged 62.6%, a divergence that underscored macro risk-off pressure hitting speculative assets hardest.

Over half of the 25.2 million cryptocurrencies listed on GeckoTerminal since 2021 have failed, with 11.6 million dying in 2025 alone.Scarcity isn't about the codeLopp's framing cuts through a conceptual confusion. Bitcoin's scarcity doesn't rest on the difficulty of writing software, but on the difficulty of coordinating humans around a set of rules they collectively choose not to alter.

Forking Bitcoin's codebase is trivial, while forking the social consensus that gives it credibility as neutral money is not. The dead coins data makes this legible.

Millions of tokens got launched, most piggybacking on low-friction platforms like Pump.fun or launchpad ecosystems that reduced issuance costs to near zero.

GeckoTerminal's tracked project count exploded from 428,383 in 2021 to over 20.2 million by the end of 2025. Yet the survival rate collapsed.

What CoinGecko measures as “dead” is explicitly tied to trading activity: tokens that once recorded at least one trade but no longer see active exchange. This definition narrows the dataset to tokens that crossed a basic threshold of existence, filtering out purely minted tokens that were never traded.

Even with that filter, the failure rate stayed above 50%. The bottleneck wasn't launching, but sustaining liquidity and attention long enough for a token to matter.

This maps directly onto what makes Bitcoin's network scarce.

The asset benefits from a compounding moat: a security budget funded by miners processing over a decade of transactions, a global web of exchanges and custody providers, derivatives markets deep enough to absorb institutional hedging, payment rails integrated into merchant infrastructure, and a developer ecosystem that treats protocol stability as a feature rather than a bug.

Competitors can replicate the code, but they can't replicate the installed base or the credible commitment not to change the rules opportunistically. Network effects scale nonlinearly, a principle formalized in Metcalfe's Law-style models that link network value to the square of active participants.

The implication: top networks capture disproportionate value, and most entrants never achieve escape velocity.

When liquidity meets stressThe 2025 die-off wasn't purely about oversupply.

CoinGecko's annual market recap shows a system under macro pressure. Stablecoins grew 48.9% to top $311 billion in circulation, adding $102.1 billion even as speculative assets bled. Centralized exchange perpetual volumes hit $86.2 trillion, up 47.4%, while decentralized perpetual volumes reached $6.7 trillion, up 346%.

The infrastructure for settlement and leverage kept scaling, but the breadth of tokens participating in that activity narrowed sharply.

This creates a bifurcated picture. Tokens that served settlement functions or captured genuine trading interest survived, while those relying on hype cycles or thin liquidity got crushed when risk appetite pulled back.

October's liquidation event acted as a stress test, revealing which projects had real demand and which existed only as placeholders in speculative portfolios.

The fourth-quarter failure rate suggests that most tokens fell into the latter category: assets launched on the assumption that attention and liquidity would follow, but that failed to build distribution or incentive alignment strong enough to weather a drawdown.

CoinGecko's methodology excludes tokens that never traded and counts only Pump.fun graduates, meaning the actual universe of minted-but-failed tokens is likely larger. The 13.4 million failures represent the subset that reached the point of registering activity before going dormant.

The broader lesson: getting listed is easy, staying relevant is the filter.

Token failures surged from roughly 15,000 to over 83,000 per day following the October 10, 2025 liquidation cascade that triggered mass market stress.What comes nextIf 2025 sets a baseline for token mortality under stress, 2026's trajectory depends on whether issuance patterns shift or whether the same dynamics persist.

Three scenarios map the range.

The first assumes high churn continues. Low-friction launchpads stay dominant, speculative issuance remains cheap, and another liquidity shock produces 8 million to 15 million failures. This path mirrors 2025's structure, with abundant issuance meeting constrained demand, and treats last year's extinction event as a repeatable outcome rather than an anomaly.

The second scenario anticipates consolidation. Market participants demand deeper liquidity and longer track records.

Platforms tighten listing standards, traders concentrate in fewer venues, and failure counts drop to 3 million to 7 million as quality filters take hold. This path assumes that 2025's brutal selection pressure taught the market to price survival risk more accurately, reducing the appetite for tokens without distribution or infrastructure.

The third path combines new issuance with sharper bifurcation. New distribution channels, such as wallet-integrated launches, social trading hooks, and layer-two expansions, drive issuance higher, but only a small subset achieves real network effects.

Failures land in the 6 million to 12 million range, with an even steeper winner-take-most distribution than 2025 produced.

The ranges aren't predictions, but rather plausible bounds given observed quarterly volatility and the 2024 baseline. The 7.7 million failures in last year's fourth quarter represent a stress-quarter ceiling, while 2024's 1.38 million offer a lower bound for non-extreme conditions.

The actual outcome depends on macro conditions, platform incentives, and whether the market internalizes 2025's lesson or repeats it.

Three 2026 scenarios project token failures ranging from 3 million to 15 million, compared to 2025's 11.6 million and 2024's 1.38 million.The network can't be clonedLopp's line about copying code versus copying networks lands harder in light of CoinGecko's data. Bitcoin's scarcity isn't threatened by the existence of millions of alternative tokens; instead, it's reinforced by the failure rate of those alternatives.

Each dead coin represents an attempt to replicate the network effects, credibility, and infrastructure that took Bitcoin over a decade to build. Most couldn't sustain trading for a year.

The 2025 data quantifies something crypto participants understood intuitively: issuance is abundant, but survival is scarce. Macro stress accelerated the sorting, but the underlying dynamic predates October's liquidation cascade.

Tokens that lacked distribution, liquidity depth, or ongoing incentive alignment got filtered out. Meanwhile, the core rails kept scaling, concentrating activity in assets and infrastructure that proved resilient.

Bitcoin's moat isn't its codebase. It's the credible, liquid, infrastructure-rich network that competitors can launch against but can't copy.

The code is free. The network costs everything.

Mentioned in this article

Key NotesPolygon Labs lays off ~30% of staff to accommodate incoming teams from acquisitions.The firm spent >$250M acquiring Coinme (payments) and Sequence (infrastructure).Strategy shifts to Open Money Stack, a regulated, vertically integrated stablecoin platform. Polygon Labs is radically restructuring its operations, slashing approximately 30% of its workforce while simultaneously deploying over $250 million to acquire crypto payments firm Coinme and wallet infrastructure provider Sequence. The move marks a definitive pivot from general-purpose scaling to a vertically integrated, regulated stablecoin payments platform.

POL POL $0.14 24h volatility: 8.1% Market cap: $1.52 B Vol. 24h: $102.61 M is trading at $0.14 (-6.0%) following the disclosure.

Pivot: Open Money Stack In a blog post detailing the acquisitions, CEO Marc Boiron outlined the Open Money Stack strategy. By purchasing Coinme (licensed in 48 US states) and Sequence, Polygon is effectively buying its way into regulated US payment rails and user-friendly wallet infrastructure.

The deal flow:

Coinme: A licensed crypto cash exchange with access to 50,000+ retail locations (e.g., Coinstar kiosks). Boiron called this physical footprint a “Trojan horse” for onboarding. Sequence: Wallet and cross-chain orchestration infrastructure to smooth user friction. The cost: Combined deal value exceeds $250 million. Headcount Shuffle While spending heavily on M&A, the lab is cutting deep internally. Boiron confirmed the 30% reduction in an interview, framing it as a consolidation rather than a contraction. The narrative? Clearing the decks for the incoming teams from the acquisitions.

“Ultimately, we become a regulated payments platform. And our goal here is to offer one fully, vertically integrated stack that can allow anyone to use stablecoins to move money anywhere,” Marc Boiron stated.

This follows a 19% staff cut in early 2024 and the spin-off of Polygon Ventures, continuing a multi-year effort to streamline the sprawling organization.

General Landscape This is a capitulation on the “general purpose L2” narrative. Polygon is effectively conceding that it cannot compete on pure speed or memecoin liquidity against Base and Arbitrum. Instead, they are betting the house on becoming the “Stripe of Web3”.

The Coinme acquisition is the critical differentiator here; while other L2s fight for on-chain natives, Polygon is buying physical distribution and regulatory licenses to capture the remittance and settlement market. Expect near-term sell pressure on POL as the “tech” premium evaporates in favor of a “utility” valuation model.

Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article aims to deliver accurate and timely information but should not be taken as financial or investment advice. Since market conditions can change rapidly, we encourage you to verify information on your own and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content.

Polygon (POL) News, Cryptocurrency News, News

I’m a content writer and editor with extensive experience creating high-quality content across a range of industries. Currently, I serve as the Editor-in-Chief at Coinspeaker, where I lead content strategy, oversee editorial workflows, and ensure that every piece meets the highest standards. In this role, I collaborate closely with writers, researchers, and industry experts to deliver content that not only informs and educates but also sparks meaningful discussion around innovation.

Much of my work focuses on blockchain, cryptocurrencies, artificial intelligence, and software development, where I bring together editorial expertise, subject knowledge, and leadership experience to shape meaningful conversations about technology and its real-world impact. I’m particularly passionate about exploring how emerging technologies intersect with business, society, and everyday life. Whether I’m writing about decentralized finance, AI applications, or the latest in software development, my goal is always to make complex subjects accessible, relevant, and valuable to readers.

My academic background has played an important role in shaping my approach to content. I studied Intercultural Communications, PR, and Translation at Minsk State Linguistic University, and later pursued a Master’s degree in Economics and Management at the Belarusian State Economic University. The combination of linguistic, communication, and business training has given me the ability to translate complex technical and economic concepts into clear, engaging narratives for diverse audiences.

Over the years, my articles have been featured on a variety of platforms. In addition to contributing to company blogs—primarily for software development agencies—my work has appeared in well-regarded outlets such as SwissCognitive, HackerNoon, Tech Company News, and SmallBizClub, among others. 

Julia Sakovich on X

Dogecoin forms a bull flag pattern on the weekly chart with analysts targeting $0.195. Key levels at $0.154 and $0.157 could trigger the next rally phase.

Newton Gitonga2 min read

16 January 2026, 12:30 PM

Edited 16 January 2026, 12:30 PM

Dogecoin has caught the attention of market analysts as technical patterns suggest a potential rally toward the $0.195 price level. The leading meme coin currently trades at $0.1380, down 3.85% in the last 24 hours.

DOGE’s price action over the past 24 hours (Source: CoinCodex)

Trader Tardigrade identified a bull flag formation on the weekly chart, indicating possible upward momentum. This pattern typically signals continuation of a bullish trend following a period of consolidation. A move to $0.195 would position Dogecoin just below the psychologically significant $0.2 threshold. Breaking through this barrier could establish new local highs for the cryptocurrency.

Source: X

Critical Levels Define Next MoveCrypto analyst Crypto Tony highlighted $0.154 as the crucial level that could trigger the next rally phase. His technical analysis indicates that reclaiming this price point would likely propel Dogecoin above $0.16. The analysis suggests this level acts as a gateway for further gains.

Source: X

Kevin Capital pointed to another important technical development. The analyst noted that Dogecoin has successfully retested its key four-hour moving averages after breaking out above them. This behavior mirrors patterns seen in Bitcoin and several altcoins attempting to conclude their corrective phases. A break above $0.157 would confirm a new local high and provide stronger evidence that the correction has ended.

Source: X

The technical picture shows multiple analysts converging on similar price targets. This confluence of opinion stems from various chart patterns and indicators pointing in the same direction. 

ETF Flows Could Drive MomentumDogecoin exchange-traded funds represent a potential catalyst for price appreciation. Data from SoSoValue revealed zero net flows into these products on January 14, despite the price rebound. However, historical patterns suggest this situation could shift rapidly.

The same ETFs experienced significant demand earlier in January when Dogecoin rallied to $0.15. During that period, the meme coin ranked among the top performers in the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. Renewed institutional interest through these investment vehicles could provide additional buying pressure.

The relationship between ETF inflows and price action remains important. Institutional money flowing through regulated products often signals broader market confidence. Any resumption of positive flows could support the technical breakout scenarios outlined by analysts.

Bitcoinsensus offered a more ambitious long-term projection. The analyst suggested Dogecoin could reach $4.5 if the cryptocurrency repeats its macro cycle pattern from previous bull markets. This forecast relies on historical price behavior during similar market phases.

Source: X

The current cycle has seen Dogecoin maintain relatively stable prices while moving sideways. This consolidation differs from the explosive rallies witnessed in past cycles. Whether this pattern will shift to match historical precedents remains uncertain. The analyst acknowledged that replicating previous performance is not guaranteed.

ENRICH your inbox with our best storiesDon’t miss out and join our newsletter to get the latest,
well-curated news from the crypto world!

Newton Gitonga covers cryptocurrencies, blockchain, and digital finance. He specializes in breaking down complex trends with clear, data-driven reporting. His work focuses on market analysis, technical insights, and the evolving role of altcoins in shaping global markets.

Read more about

Dogecoin (DOGE) News