Market Signal Briefing

Velan Inc. (TSX:VLN:CA) Q2 2026 Earnings Call October 10, 2025 8:00 AM EDT

Company Participants

Rishi Sharma - Chief Financial & Administrative Officer
James Mannebach - CEO & Chairman

Conference Call Participants

Alessandro Ciarnelli

Presentation

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Velan Inc. Q2 Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] This call is being recorded on Friday, October 10, 2025.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Rishi Sharma, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

Rishi Sharma
Chief Financial & Administrative Officer

Thank you, operator. Good morning. Thank you for joining us on our conference call. Let's start by discussing the disclaimer from our related Investor Relations presentation, which is available on our website in the Investor Relations section.

As usual, the first paragraph mentions that the presentation provides an analysis of our consolidated results for the second quarter ended August 31, 2025. The Board of Directors approved these results yesterday, October 9, 2025. The second paragraph refers to non-IFRS and supplementary financial measures, which are defined and reconciled at the end of the presentation.

The last paragraph addresses forward-looking information, which is subject to risks and uncertainties that are not guaranteed to occur. Forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified by this cautionary statement. Finally, unless indicated otherwise, all amounts are expressed in U.S. dollars, and all financial metrics discussed are from continuing operations.

I will now turn the call over to Jim Mannebach, Chairman of the Board and CEO of Velan.

James Mannebach
CEO & Chairman

Thank you, Rishi, and good morning, good afternoon, good evening, everyone. Please turn to Slide 4 for a general overview of the second quarter of fiscal 2026. Velan reported adjusted EBITDA of $3.4 million and operating income of $400,000 on sales of $67.6 million during the period. Our performance in the quarter, which fell

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Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in HRTG, over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

The author is not an investment advisor and offers no advice here. He shares his own analysis solely for the interest of readers.

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Shares of Applied Digital Corp (NASDAQ:APLD) are 31.9% higher to trade at $38.62 this morning, after the cloud infrastructure company posted a fiscal first-quarter revenue beat and a quarterly loss of 3 cents per share, narrower than analyst expectations of -13 cents per share. AI-driven leasing activities -- including a massive 150-megawatt AI data center expansion -- were the catalyst behind the upbeat report.

In response, Needham hiked its price target on the security to $41 from $21 and maintained its "buy" rating, while Northland Capital hiked its target to $40 from $30. But with an average 12-month price target of $36.11 a 3.6% deficit to current levels, there is plenty of room for more price-target hikes in the coming weeks.

APLD has more than quadrupled in value in 2025 alone, this morning tapping a 21-year high of $39.96 out of the gate, and now on track for its best daily pop since June 2. The breakout has the shares' 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) all the way up in "overbought" territory at 87. In the event of a breather though, there's the ascending 50-day moving average that aided the stock's summer surge, capturing several pullbacks between May and September. 

Short interest has been surging of late, up 21.4% during the past two reporting periods. This accounts for a whopping 30.6% of the stock's total available float.

Options traders are buzzing today, with 202,000 calls exchanged already today, volume that's six times the average intraday amount. Most of this attention is at the weekly 10/10 40-strike call, while that 40-strike is also popular in the standard October series.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of QQQI, JEPQ, NVDA, META, AMZN, GOOG, AAPL either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when Huntington Bancshares (HBAN - Free Report) reports results for the quarter ended September 2025. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.

The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on October 17. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis regional bank holding company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.38 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +15.2%.

Revenues are expected to be $2.06 billion, up 8.9% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 1.01% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Huntington Bancshares?For Huntington Bancshares, the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +0.17%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.

So, this combination indicates that Huntington Bancshares will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Huntington Bancshares would post earnings of $0.38 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.38, delivering no surprise.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Huntington Bancshares appears a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

Expected Results of an Industry PlayerAmong the stocks in the Zacks Banks - Midwest industry, Commerce Bancshares (CBSH - Free Report) , is soon expected to post earnings of $1.09 per share for the quarter ended September 2025. This estimate indicates a year-over-year change of +1.9%. This quarter's revenue is expected to be $438.41 million, up 4% from the year-ago quarter.

The consensus EPS estimate for Commerce has been revised 0.7% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. However, a higher Most Accurate Estimate has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +0.86%.

When combined with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), this Earnings ESP indicates that Commerce will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate. The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

State Street Corporation (STT - Free Report) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended September 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.

The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on October 17. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $2.61 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +15.5%.

Revenues are expected to be $3.46 billion, up 3.7% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 1.89% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for State Street?For State Street, the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +0.45%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #1.

So, this combination indicates that State Street will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that State Street would post earnings of $2.36 per share when it actually produced earnings of $2.53, delivering a surprise of +7.20%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

State Street appears a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

An Industry Player's Expected ResultsAmong the stocks in the Zacks Banks - Major Regional industry, KeyCorp (KEY - Free Report) , is soon expected to post earnings of $0.38 per share for the quarter ended September 2025. This estimate indicates a year-over-year change of +26.7%. This quarter's revenue is expected to be $1.88 billion, up 17.5% from the year-ago quarter.

The consensus EPS estimate for KeyCorp has been revised 1.2% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. However, a higher Most Accurate Estimate has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +2.37%.

When combined with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), this Earnings ESP indicates that KeyCorp will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate. The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when Truist Financial Corporation (TFC - Free Report) reports results for the quarter ended September 2025. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.

The earnings report, which is expected to be released on October 17, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.98 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +1%.

Revenues are expected to be $5.15 billion, up 1.2% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Truist Financial?For Truist Financial, the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +0.68%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.

So, this combination indicates that Truist Financial will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Truist Financial would post earnings of $0.92 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.91, delivering a surprise of -1.09%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Truist Financial appears a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

An Industry Player's Expected ResultsU.S. Bancorp (USB - Free Report) , another stock in the Zacks Banks - Major Regional industry, is expected to report earnings per share of $1.11 for the quarter ended September 2025. This estimate points to a year-over-year change of +7.8%. Revenues for the quarter are expected to be $7.16 billion, up 4.7% from the year-ago quarter.

The consensus EPS estimate for U.S. Bancorp has remained unchanged over the last 30 days. However, a higher Most Accurate Estimate has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +1.3%.

This Earnings ESP, combined with its Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), suggests that U.S. Bancorp will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate. The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

The market expects Schlumberger (SLB - Free Report) to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended September 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.

The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on October 17. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis world's largest oilfield services company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.67 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -24.7%.

Revenues are expected to be $8.94 billion, down 2.4% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.28% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Schlumberger?For Schlumberger, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -2.82%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #4.

So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Schlumberger will beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Schlumberger would post earnings of $0.73 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.74, delivering a surprise of +1.37%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Schlumberger doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

Expected Results of an Industry PlayerAmong the stocks in the Zacks Oil and Gas - Field Services industry, Schlumberger (SLB - Free Report) , is soon expected to post earnings of $0.67 per share for the quarter ended September 2025. This estimate indicates a year-over-year change of -24.7%. This quarter's revenue is expected to be $8.94 billion, down 2.4% from the year-ago quarter.

Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for Schlumberger has been revised 0.3% down to the current level. Nevertheless, the company now has an Earnings ESP of -2.82%, reflecting a lower Most Accurate Estimate.

This Earnings ESP, combined with its Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Schlumberger will beat the consensus EPS estimate. Over the last four quarters, the company surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

The market expects American Express (AXP - Free Report) to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended September 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.

The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on October 17. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis credit card issuer and global payments company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $3.96 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +13.5%.

Revenues are expected to be $17.99 billion, up 8.2% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 1.04% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for American Express?For American Express, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -0.77%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.

So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that American Express will beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that American Express would post earnings of $3.86 per share when it actually produced earnings of $4.08, delivering a surprise of +5.70%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

American Express doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

An Industry Player's Expected ResultsAmong the stocks in the Zacks Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, Synchrony (SYF - Free Report) , is soon expected to post earnings of $2.2 per share for the quarter ended September 2025. This estimate indicates a year-over-year change of +13.4%. This quarter's revenue is expected to be $4.69 billion, up 1.8% from the year-ago quarter.

Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for Synchrony has remained unchanged. Nevertheless, the company now has an Earnings ESP of +2.58%, reflecting a higher Most Accurate Estimate.

When combined with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), this Earnings ESP indicates that Synchrony will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate. The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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Key Takeaways Fastenal's Q3 EPS estimate stands at $0.30, up 15.4% y/y, with sales expected to rise 11.4% to $2.13B.August 2025 daily sales grew 11.8%, led by strength in manufacturing and non-residential construction.FAST's margins are expected to improve, with operating expenses down 100 bps and gross margin up 20 bps y/y.
Fastenal Company (FAST - Free Report) is scheduled to report its third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 13, before the opening bell.

In the last reported quarter, its earnings per share (EPS) and net sales topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.6% and 0.9%, respectively. On a year-over-year basis, both metrics grew 12.7% and 8.6%, respectively.

Fastenal’s earnings topped the consensus mark in one of the last four quarters, missed on one occasion and met on the other two occasions, with the average negative surprise being 0.2%.

Trend in FAST’s Estimate RevisionFor the third quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS has remained unchanged over the past 60 days at 30 cents per share. The estimated figure indicates 15.4% year-over-year growth.

The consensus mark for net sales is pegged at $2.13 billion, indicating a 11.4% increase from the year-ago reported figure of $1.91 billion.

Factors Likely to Shape Fastenal's Q3 PerformanceSales

The top line of the company is expected to have gained from robust customer contract signing momentum and increased unit sales. The elevated trends are likely to have been fueled by its focus on improving its digital footprint and increased investments in sales resources despite a sluggish industrial environment. Moreover, a balanced mix of onsite and offsite services and market share gains across various product categories are expected to have added to the uptick.

If we go by the latest monthly sales report, August’s daily sales grew 11.8% to $33.2 million, with the same increasing 2.1% from July 2025.

In terms of end markets in August 2025, Heavy Manufacturing and Other Manufacturing daily sales increased 11.7% and 12.5%, respectively, with Non-residential Construction growing 11.5%. In terms of product line, daily sales for Fasteners and Safety grew 13.3% and 10.2%, respectively. Products under the Other category improved 11.5% in August 2025. During the same month, the daily sales growth of contract and non-contract customers was 14% and 6%, respectively, with daily sales through eBusiness growing 9%.

Our model predicts Fastenal’s average daily sales to be $32.9 million for the third quarter, indicating an increase of 10.4% from a year ago.

Margins

The bottom line of FAST is expected to have improved during the third quarter on the back of a favorable price-cost mix, the ongoing fastener expansion project and other supplier-focused initiatives. Moreover, the company’s cost control efforts, including automating warehouses, increasing delivery efficiency through its trucking network and selling more private-label products with higher margins, are likely to have aided the margins.

The company is likely to have faced an unfavorable customer mix, higher import duties and rising transportation costs, given the broader macro uncertainties spanning the economy. However, the increased leverage from top-line growth and margin expansion initiatives is expected to more than offset these headwinds.

We expect total operating expenses (as a percentage of net sales) to contract 100 basis points (bps) to 23.6% for the to-be-reported quarter. Our model also predicts gross margin to expand year over year by 20 bps to 45.1% in the third quarter.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for FastenalOur proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Fastenal this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, it is not the case this time for the stock.

Earnings ESP: The company has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Currently, FAST carries a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks With the Favorable CombinationHere are some companies from the Industrial Products sector, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their respective quarters to be reported.

 Crane Company (CR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.93% and a Zacks Rank of 2.

 Crane Company’s earnings topped the consensus mark in each of the last four quarters, with the average surprise being 7.5%. Earnings for the company’s third quarter of 2025 are expected to grow 5.8% year over year.

 Hubbell Incorporated (HUBB - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.17% and a Zacks Rank of 2.

 Hubbell’s earnings topped the consensus mark in three of the last four quarters and missed on the remaining occasion, with the average surprise being 2.3%. Earnings for the company’s third quarter of 2025 are expected to grow 11.4% year over year.

 Otis Worldwide Corporation (OTIS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.30% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

 Otis Worldwide’s earnings topped the consensus mark in two of the last four quarters and missed on the other two occasions, with the average surprise being 0.2%. Earnings for the company’s third quarter of 2025 are expected to increase 4.2% year over year.

Type “dog longevity podcast” into any app and you’ll find comedians, YouTubers and tech billionaires musing about miracle drugs that could help dogs live longer.

Loyal, the Silicon Valley biotech, has become the poster child for the idea that man’s best friend might one day grow old more gracefully. Yet one name rarely makes it into these conversations: Genflow Biosciences PLC (LSE:GENF, OTCQB:GENFF).

While the chatter swirls around American start-ups, this small London-listed company has been quietly advancing a gene therapy programme that could place it years ahead of the pack.

Its SIRT6 treatment, adapted from a gene found in human centenarians, is being trialled in ageing beagles to test whether it can slow physical decline.

Futurustic 
The science may sound futuristic, but the stakes are firmly commercial. The animal health market is expected to expand rapidly over the next decade, and Genflow’s work could give Britain an unlikely foothold in the booming business of longevity.

The shares are up 170% in the past week, ostensibly after it rejigged a fundraiser to be less dilutive to existing investors. However, on Friday, there was also a positive update on its dog longevity trial.

Specifically, it has administered its SIRT6 therapy for a second time to elderly beagles with no side effects.

Turning to the wider small-cap market, the AIM All-Share ended its three-week winning streak with a six-point loss to 790.57. The performance mirrored that of its larger sibling, the FTSE 100, which marked time.

Sticking with the week’s winners and the life sciences arena, Genflow’s stellar performance overshadowed that of genedrive PLC (AIM:GDR), which jumped 75%.

Stake building
Stake building by David Nugent, who has criticised the company’s funding plans, appears to have lit the blue touch paper under this one. He has taken his stake to over 12% of the shares despite being critical of management.

There were reasons to be cheerful for beleaguered long-term backers of Petro Matad Limited (AIM:MATD, OTC:PRTDF), who have seen the stock collapse 55% over the past year.

A renaissance of sorts has been prompted by the success of the Gazelle-1 well in Mongolia, which exceeded expectations during testing, flowing up to 460 barrels of oil per day without artificial lift.

It is now being prepared for production, with completion and installation of surface facilities under way. The shares ended the week 44% higher.

Casualty list
Now onto the week’s list of casualties, which has an all-too-familiar ring to it.

Futura Medical, ANGLE, Tissue Regenix and Litigation Capital — down 26%, 20%, 16% and 11% respectively — are all feeling the after-effects of historic missteps or bad news. Who says the market has a short memory?

Sareum Holdings PLC's (AIM:SAR) bad news was of a more recent vintage. In an update earlier on Friday, the Cambridge-based biotech told the market it had halted a key toxicology study for its lead autoimmune treatment, SDC-1801, following unexpected safety findings.

The 16-week preclinical study, conducted by a third-party contractor, was terminated after animals in the control group, which received an inactive solution, exhibited a higher rate of adverse effects compared with those treated with the drug itself.

Sareum said this made it “highly unlikely” that the issues were linked to SDC-1801. If we accept this, then the knee-jerk 39% share price fall makes no sense at all — unless investors are fretting that this may destabilise the business.

Silver Linings Playbook
And finally, Tertiary Minerals PLC (AIM:TYM, OTC:TTIRF) is catching eyes in the mining sector after unveiling silver hits that have lit a spark under its share price, up 8% this week and 28% over the past month.

At its Mushima North project in Zambia, drilling has returned 58 metres grading 49 grams per tonne silver, 0.26% copper and 0.16% zinc from just 8 metres down; strong numbers for a shallow polymetallic system. The mineralisation stretches to 84 metres and remains open in several directions, hinting at scale.

Managing director Richard Belcher said the results stack up well against other open-pit silver deposits globally, calling it “a significant discovery for the company”.

With Mushima lying just 20 kilometres from Moxico Resources’ Kalengwa mine, the proximity could pay off if toll milling comes into play later. For now, Tertiary looks to be carving out a serious foothold in Zambia’s Copperbelt.

CoinDesk Indices presents its daily market update, highlighting the performance of leaders and laggards in the CoinDesk 20 Index.

Junk bond and banking ETFs hint risk aversion. Oct 10, 2025, 1:19 p.m.

This is an analysis post by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.

Bitcoin BTC$122,026.12 bounced back to around $121,500 after dipping below $120,000 late Thursday. Further gains may be difficult to achieve or could prove short-lived for two reasons.

STORY CONTINUES BELOW

First, momentum indicators on short-term charts have turned bearish. On the hourly chart, the 50-, 100-, and 200-candle simple moving averages (SMAs) have aligned bearishly, now stacked one below the other – a classic bearish configuration. Additionally, the pattern of consecutive lower highs points to weakening buying pressure.

BTC's hourly candlestick chart. (TradingView)

Second, key ETFs are signaling a risk-off sentiment.

The iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) has broken below its bullish trendline from May lows and slipped beneath its 50-day SMA for the first time in six months.

As HYG holds high-yield ("junk") corporate bonds, a downtrend here typically reflects rising investor aversion to risk, with investors moving away from riskier, lower-rated bonds.

HYG ETF. (TradingView)

While BTC is often called digital gold, it has historically correlated with stocks, reflecting broader market risk sentiment.

Meanwhile, in the financial sector, the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF), which tracks major banking stocks, has lost momentum since late August and appears to be forming a rounding-top pattern suggestive of a bear market. Similarly, the regional banking ETF (KRE) has also broken below its bullish trendline established since April.

XLF and KRE daily charts. (TradingView)

Key levelsBTC's bearish technical setup on short duration charts, coupled with caution in key bond and banking ETFs, indicate a market environment leaning towards risk aversion.

The immediate support for BTC is seen at $120,000 followed by $118,000. A move above $124,000 would weaken the case for a deeper pullback.

AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.

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Total Crypto Trading Volume Hits Yearly High of $9.72T

Sep 9, 2025

Combined spot and derivatives trading on centralized exchanges surged 7.58% to $9.72 trillion in August, marking the highest monthly volume of 2025

What to know:

Combined spot and derivatives trading on centralized exchanges surged 7.58% to $9.72 trillion in August, marking the highest monthly volume of 2025Gate exchange emerged as major player with 98.9% volume surge to $746 billion, overtaking Bitget to become fourth-largest platformOpen interest across centralized derivatives exchanges rose 4.92% to $187 billionView Full Report

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Metaplanet Pauses Share Sales to Fund Bitcoin Purchases

33 minutes ago

The Bitcoin-focused firm paused stock acquisition rights for 20 trading days as its stock's multiple to net asset value hit a cycle low.

What to know:

Metaplanet announced a suspension of the 20th to 22nd series of Moving Strike Warrants that will run from October 20 to November 17.Shares have fallen 70% from June highs, with valuation now at 1.05x NAV, the lowest since launching its bitcoin strategy.Read full story

TL;DR

New DeFi Product: Pudgy Penguins launched PenguSOL, a new Pudgy Penguins Solana liquid staking token, to generate yield.
Increased Utility: The launch aims to boost the utility of the PENGU token by allowing holders to earn rewards without locking up their funds.
Multichain Strategy: The project confirms its multichain strategy, keeping its NFTs on Ethereum while using the Solana infrastructure for its DeFi solutions.

One of the most influential NFT projects in the market, Pudgy Penguins, has taken a giant leap to solidify its position within the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem. They have officially launched their Pudgy Penguins Solana liquid staking solution.

This strategy is designed to reward their community and stimulate the utility of the PENGU token within Solana’s ultra-fast network.

The launch of this staking product allows holders of the project’s native token (PENGU) to deposit their assets to generate yield while simultaneously receiving a receipt token (or Liquid Staking Token, LST).

This innovation, tailored for the DeFi sector, solves the problem of liquidity. That is, users will get staking rewards without their funds being locked up, as the LST can be used in other decentralized financial activities.

We are witnessing a strategic multichain move by Pudgy Penguins. They are keeping their original NFTs on Ethereum but have chosen the Solana blockchain for the issuance of their PENGU token.

The decision is based on Solana’s low latency and competitive fees, factors that aim to offer a smoother user experience when interacting with DeFi.

Impact on the Community and the NFT Market
The introduction of Pudgy Penguins Solana liquid staking not only generates a new source of yield for holders but also increases the demand and utility of the PENGU token. PENGU has consistently proven to be a volatile but high-interest asset, with capitalization and trading volume spikes driven by the strong support of its community.

By offering an institutional-grade yield tool on one of the most scalable blockchains, Pudgy Penguins seeks to transcend the label of a simple NFT collection and become a digital intellectual property project with its own financial infrastructure.

Market experts have already commented, noting that this integration of Pudgy Penguins Solana liquid staking is a prime example of how leading NFT projects are actively seeking real-world utility within the DeFi sector.

This approach, which combines brand value (branding) with robust financial functionality, is becoming a blueprint for the next generation of Web3 projects.

The success of this initiative will depend on continued community adoption and the integration of this new LST into Solana’s broader DeFi ecosystem.

Two of the biggest players in the U.S. crypto exchange-traded fund (ETF) market, Bitwise and 21Shares, have unveiled major updates to their offerings — introducing staking features and cutting fees to attract investors. The move, announced this week, highlights the next stage in the evolution of crypto investment products, moving beyond simple price exposure toward yield-generating opportunities.

Ivan Chebeskov, Deputy Finance Minister of Russia, estimated that around 20 million citizens used cryptocurrency for different purposes. Even with the various options available, Bitcoin was the most widely used cryptocurrency, accounting for 62.1% of all funds held in exchange wallets.

Why Trust CoinGape

CoinGape has covered the cryptocurrency industry since 2017, aiming to provide informative insights to our readers. Our journal analysts bring years of experience in market analysis and blockchain technology to ensure factual accuracy and balanced reporting. By following our Editorial Policy, our writers verify every source, fact-check each story, rely on reputable sources, and attribute quotes and media correctly. We also follow a rigorous Review Methodology when evaluating exchanges and tools. From emerging blockchain projects and coin launches to industry events and technical developments, we cover all facets of the digital asset space with unwavering commitment to timely, relevant information.

Bitget has launched the fourth phase of its Early Hunter Airdrop, featuring BinanceLife (币安人生) and PALU tokens. The exchange said the program rewards users who traded these tokens before their wider market debut. This move marks another step in its effort to bridge centralized and decentralized trading.

Bitget Expands Universal Exchange Model to Reward Early On-Chain Participation
According to a press release, the new phase continues Bitget’s vision of expanding its Universal Exchange (UEX) model. This merges the stability of centralized exchanges with the flexibility of on-chain systems. Hence, it offers users more ways to participate in the evolving on-chain economy.

Bitget aims for the UEX to become the unified platform for trading all assets. These include crypto, stocks, ETFs and RWAs. Through the Early Hunter initiative, Bitget gives users a chance to earn exclusive rewards for identifying promising projects early. Traders who interacted with BinanceLife before 18:30 (UTC+8) and PALU before 12:30 (UTC+8) on October 7, 2025, have qualified for airdrop rewards.

The crypto firm added that eligible users will receive their tokens directly into their accounts within three days of the announcement. The program is part of Bitget’s broader plan to reward participation in its growing on-chain ecosystem.

Bitget Enhances On-Chain Experience With AI Signals and Cross-Chain Expansion
By linking spot and on-chain traders through structured reward programs, the exchange aims to create a unified trading community. This community get rewarded for early identification of new assets.

Bitget stated that the initiative is a step towards creating an inclusive and opportunity-rich space. Here, traders would have access to assets sooner than any other platform. This is the latest launch after Bitget recently upgraded its network. This allowed the addition of four major blockchains and the introduction of AI-based on-chain signals.

The update represents the interest of Bitget in integrating trading access with intelligent analytics. The exchange claimed that its innovations are assisting traders to make more informed trading decisions faster over various blockchain networks.

Bitget Gains Broader Reach through New Partnerships
Bitget has reported constant increase in trading activity and liquidity growth in the last year. The platform has also improved its position as a leading copy trading feature. Millions of traders around the world are now using this feature. It currently has more than 120 million users in 150 nations.

The exchange continues to grow through major partnerships, including collaborations with LaLiga and MotoGP. Bitget advanced its Web3 adoption efforts by sponsoring the Smarter Speed Challenge during the recent Catalunya MotoGP event. It is also working with UNICEF to support blockchain education programs for over one million people by 2027.

The exchange further stated that subsequent stages of the Early Hunter Airdrop will feature additional listings of tokens, exclusive partners, and the introduction of new incentives.

This expansion, it said, will deepen user engagement while encouraging wider participation in decentralized ecosystems.

Investment disclaimer: The content reflects the author’s personal views and current market conditions. Please conduct your own research before investing in cryptocurrencies, as neither the author nor the publication is responsible for any financial losses.

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Miners’ secured grid capacity and high-density sites offer hyperscalers a faster, cheaper path to expand AI data centers as interconnection delays mount. Oct 10, 2025, 1:37 p.m.

A tightening U.S. power grid is driving bitcoin BTC$122,206.04 miners and AI developers into closer alignment, according to Wall Street broker Bernstein.

Soaring demand from AI and digital workloads has made grid access one of the biggest constraints on new data center growth, with interconnection timelines stretching to seven years in some regions, the broker said in a report on Friday.

STORY CONTINUES BELOW

Miners, who secured large renewable power contracts years ago, now control more than 14 gigawatts (GW) of capacity and offer AI providers a shortcut to scale, analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote.

Sites owned by IREN (IREN) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) can cut deployment time by up to 75% compared with greenfield projects, the analysts wrote.

The sector is riding broader momentum. Bloomberg reported that Microsoft expects data center shortages to persist through 2026 as cloud and AI demand outpaces its infrastructure buildout. The surge in demand for high-performance computing is fueling optimism that bitcoin miners can capitalize by expanding into AI and data center operations.

Because bitcoin facilities already run at high power densities and have advanced cooling systems, they can be retrofitted for high-performance AI workloads far faster and cheaper than new builds, Bernstein said.

The broker called miners “strategic enablers” of the AI buildout and named IREN its top pick, with an outperform rating and a $75 price target.

IREN was 5.7% higher in early trading Friday, around $67.50.

Read more: Bitcoin Miners Rally in Pre-Market as Sector Nears $90B Market Cap

AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.

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Total Crypto Trading Volume Hits Yearly High of $9.72T

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What to know:

Combined spot and derivatives trading on centralized exchanges surged 7.58% to $9.72 trillion in August, marking the highest monthly volume of 2025Gate exchange emerged as major player with 98.9% volume surge to $746 billion, overtaking Bitget to become fourth-largest platformOpen interest across centralized derivatives exchanges rose 4.92% to $187 billionView Full Report

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Bitcoin Price Bounce Meets Bearish MA Configuration, Risk-Off Hints From Key ETFs

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Junk bond and banking ETFs hint risk aversion.

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BTC's short-duration price charts paint a bearish picture.Junk bond and banking ETFs hint risk aversion.Read full story

According to PeckShield, the theft stemmed from a private key compromise, allowing an attacker to drain the victim’s funds in a single swift move.Updated Oct 10, 2025, 1:40 p.m. Published Oct 10, 2025, 1:38 p.m.

Blockchain security firm PeckShield reported Friday that a wallet suffered a devastating loss of roughly $21 million worth of crypto assets on Hyperliquid, a decentralized trading platform.

According to PeckShield, the theft stemmed from a private key compromise, allowing an attacker to drain the victim’s funds in a single swift move.

STORY CONTINUES BELOW

The hack was isolated and was targeted towards the victim's wallet, not HyperLiquid itself.

The stolen assets PeckShield claims included approximately 17.75 million DAI and 3.11 million MSYRUPUSDP, both of which the hacker has since bridged to Ethereum.

Onchain data shows that the attacker’s wallet executed a series of transactions to move the funds through multiple addresses, a tactic commonly used to obscure traces and complicate recovery efforts.

This incident highlights the persistent risk of private key exposure in decentralized systems — even as smart contract security improves, user-side vulnerabilities continue to be a major attack vector. T

he Hyperliquid case serves as yet another reminder that operational security and hardware wallet protection are critical to safeguarding digital assets in the self-custody era.

AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.

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Kalshi Raises $300M at $5B Valuation, Expands Prediction Markets to 140 Countries: NYT

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The funding round was led by major investors including Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Paradigm, CapitalG and Coinbase Ventures.

What to know:

Kalshi has raised $300 million at a $5 billion valuation, according to a report by the New York Times.The online prediction market has expanded access to users in more than 140 countries.Growth in sports betting has drawn investor backing but also new state-level regulatory challenges, the article said.Read full story

Fri, 10/10/2025 - 13:47

Bloomberg expert predicts 50% loss for Bitcoin versus gold, here's why and when

Cover image via U.Today

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

According to Bloomberg’s top strategist Mike McGlone, Bitcoin could lose half of its value against gold. He warns that the Bitcoin/gold ratio, which is currently around 30 ounces of precious metal for 1 BTC, could fall back to the mid-teens once market volatility returns.

Such a drop would erase years of relative gains and leave the digital gold comparison looking far weaker than the story traders have been telling since institutions first entered the market.

Bitcoin struggles to hold the line as the warning lands. The coin tried to break past $124,000 before U.S. markets opened, but in less than two hours, the rally failed and the price dropped to under $121,000.

HOT Stories

Bitcoin Could Halve vs. Gold - Model vs. Volatility
It's hardly profound to expect stock-market volatility to recover from multiyear lows, which might guide the potential for some mean reversion in the ounces of gold equal to a Bitcoin.
Full report on the Bloomberg here:… pic.twitter.com/eNG08TxyRz

— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) October 10, 2025 This partly happened as a mysterious ancient Bitcoin whale opened a $600 million short position on the main cryptocurrency via Hyperliquid's derivatives market.

No Bitcoin, no partyNevertheless, Bitcoin dominance has climbed to its highest level in almost two months, which signals that capital inside crypto is rotating back to the main coin. However, gold could soon regain the upper hand.

Other assets added to market noise, not direction. Gold fell 1% to $4,035; silver broke above $50 for the first time before falling back down to $48.55, while altcoins extended losses. Ethereum fell to near $4,300, and BNB and Dogecoin lost about 4%.

In this context, the spotlight is firmly on Bitcoin. If McGlone's chart is right, a new all-time high may not be the biggest story ahead, as Bitcoin may lose half its value compared to the metal it was supposed to leave behind.

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The move marks the first Nasdaq-listed company to hold its treasury in tokenized gold, backed by LBMA-standard bullion stored in Switzerland.

Solana (SOL) treasury companies are following the trend set by Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), whose adoption by public companies has boosted stock prices and graced media headlines.

Digital asset treasuries (DATs) list on public markets, buy crypto, then work to grow tokens per share. The pitch is simple for traders who want to gain crypto exposure through a brokerage account, offering upside that can outpace spot prices.

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also provide crypto exposure for investors nowadays, but DATs can hit the market faster. Additionally, premiums and discounts to net asset value (NAV) create embedded leverage without liquidation concerns, which allows these vehicles to trade away from the value of the tokens they hold.

Solana treasuries have lower liquidity than Bitcoin and Ether. But with institutions already familiar with the name and willing to hold for longer, the bet is that Solana treasuries can dampen sell pressure, pull in more conservative capital and show that crypto’s next distribution war will be fought on public markets.

Over the past 30 days, Solana treasury companies have accumulated close to 6.3 million SOL, representing more than 1.6% of the token’s circulating supply and over half of all SOL held in corporate treasuries.

A growing number of public companies are adding Solana to their corporate treasuries. Source: CoinGeckoWhy Solana DATs look promisingSOL is the world’s sixth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, and its blockchain network is often seen as a challenger to Ethereum’s dominance in smart contracts and decentralized finance (DeFi), known for its high throughput and low transaction costs. But as a treasury asset, Solana’s digital asset treasuries remain less mature than those built around Bitcoin and Ether.

Collectively, Solana treasury companies hold about 2.46% of SOL’s supply, worth nearly $3 billion, according to CoinGecko. Only four companies hold more than 0.01%, led by Forward Industries with 1.249%, followed by DeFi Development Corp (DFDV), Upexi and Sharps Technology, each with over 0.35%.

DFDV, formerly real estate platform Janover, has been among the best-performing stocks this year following a Solana treasuries rebrand. Source: Google Finance“We looked at a lot of layer 1s, and it became pretty clear that Solana is winning the technology race among them,” Joseph Onorati, CEO of DFDV, told Cointelegraph.

“Ethereum still has the mindshare, but if you look at the actual usage and efficiency, Solana is ahead on almost every metric. Yet it trades at about a fifth of Ethereum’s market cap,” he added, hinting at his belief in Solana’s growth potential.

Solana treasuries allow investors to gain exposure to the asset through traditional means, such as established brokerage accounts. Unlike Bitcoin and Ether, there are no spot Solana ETFs on the market yet, though analysts expect approval once the Securities and Exchange Commission resumes normal operations after the ongoing US government shutdown.

A Bloomberg analyst sees 0% chance that Solana ETFs don’t get approved. Source: Eric BalchunasUnlike ETFs, which passively mirror an asset’s price, Solana DATs can actively deploy their holdings. DFDV, for instance, stakes its Solana, runs its own validator and participates in DeFi strategies to generate yield and expand token holdings even in a flat market. Though ETF applicants are starting to add staking features to their filings, DATs still have greater flexibility to grow their token base.

“Digital asset treasuries are a superior vehicle. Eventually, they’ll completely displace ETFs,” Onorati said.

Solana also has an edge in familiarity and exposure among altcoins. Many institutional investors already understand its ecosystem and are willing to hold for longer periods.

“The association with FTX definitely hurt Solana’s price and perception in the beginning,” said Thomas Chen, CEO of Bitcoin infrastructure company Function. “But even though the attention back then was mostly negative, that kind of exposure also gave Solana a lot of visibility among investors. It helped raise awareness that the ecosystem still had real activity, real staking and real products.”

In March 2024, the estate of bankrupt FTX announced that it would sell 41 million SOL to institutional investors at a 68% discount. The sale gave institutions billions of dollars’ worth of SOL locked under a four-year vesting schedule, effectively turning a market overhang into a long-term institutional bet on Solana.

Constraints in Solana DAT modelsFor all their promise, Solana treasury companies still face structural challenges that make the model difficult to scale. Liquidity remains thin compared with Bitcoin or Ether counterparts, and Solana DATs are competing for the same pool of investors.

“Liquidity comparison matters,” said Tim Chen, global head of strategy at Mantle and brother of Thomas Chen. “[Strategy] trades tens of millions of shares daily, and Ethereum proxies are growing. Solana DATs trade far less.”

Concentration risk also remains a concern. While current Solana DATs collectively hold only a few percent of the total supply, the model would face scrutiny if a single company began accumulating a large share.

Chen categorized digital asset treasuries into three buckets: Bitcoin-focused treasuries as pure store-of-value plays; Ethereum and Solana as the middle ground (mature enough for institutions but still evolving); and other altcoins that could design more dynamic models.

Digital asset treasury private investment in public equity raises across altcoins. Source: Tim Chen“Those models are still early,” he added, “but if done right, they could outperform the larger caps in relative impact because they’re designed from the start to return value to the ecosystem, not just to shareholders.”

Solana DATs are going globalSolana DATs are helping the asset mature, and in the process, they may also ease one of Solana’s token inflation challenges. The network’s current 4.24% inflation rate is programmed to decline gradually until it reaches a long-term floor of 1.5%. Staking helps long-term holders offset that dilution, and treasury companies contribute by locking up tokens and signaling institutional confidence.

Mantle’s Chen said Solana DATs can act as a supply sink only if new capital arrives from traditional finance.

“You have to check the filings,” he said. “Are DATs buying new SOL, buying locked SOL or taking contributed SOL from existing holders? Without net new flow, you’re just moving coins between pockets.”

Solana’s inflation drops by 15% each year until it reaches 1.5%. Source: HeliusAs Solana’s corporate adoption grows, DFDV is trying to take the model further. The company launched a “treasury accelerator” to help create localized DATs in other countries, where tax codes, currencies and investor bases differ. DFDV has launched Solana treasury franchises in South Korea and Japan.

The idea follows examples like Japan’s Metaplanet and David Bailey’s Nakamoto model — public companies that turned their listings into crypto exposure vehicles.

Critics often describe such moves as rebrands for struggling companies, but Onorati said it’s about efficiency, not rescue.

“It’s not that these companies are failing,” he said. “It’s just the fastest path to market.” Once the crypto strategy scales, the original business often becomes secondary to the treasury operations that drive shareholder value.

From inflation offsets to international franchising plans, Solana’s treasury movement is merging crypto-native mechanics with corporate finance strategy. What began as a balance-sheet experiment around Bitcoin and Ether is now extending into Solana, a network that’s faster, more volatile and increasingly familiar to institutions. Solana’s DATs mark the next stage where public companies participate directly in the ecosystems they invest in.

Magazine: EU’s privacy-killing Chat Control bill delayed — but fight isn’t over

Key Takeaways
Can Bitcoin’s emotional recovery sustain momentum amid rising valuations?
The sharp rebound in emotional strength and NVT ratio indicates improving sentiment, suggesting early-stage accumulation.

Will sell dominance and liquidation pressure cap Bitcoin’s upside?
Taker Sell Dominance and $123K liquidation clusters could delay the next leg up before a breakout.

Bitcoin’s [BTC] emotional strength index on Binance has rebounded sharply since early October, reflecting a powerful psychological shift from fear to confidence among investors. 

The metric’s press time value of 1.47 marks a notable improvement from September’s negative readings, suggesting that traders are regaining optimism as Bitcoin continues to trade above key moving averages. 

This resurgence highlights growing conviction among institutional participants who had previously stayed on the sidelines. 

Moreover, increasing emotional strength at these levels often indicates renewed accumulation phases, especially when combined with recovering on-chain sentiment and stable market structure.

Is Bitcoin’s network valuation rising too fast?
Bitcoin’s NVT ratio, which compares market capitalization to transaction volume, has surged toward 760, as of writing, its highest level in months. 

This rapid spike reveals that Bitcoin’s valuation is growing faster than its underlying network activity, hinting at potential short-term overvaluation. 

Historically, elevated NVT levels have preceded brief corrections as on-chain volume catches up. However, the current surge also reflects strong speculative interest and robust investor inflows. 

This divergence suggests that while fundamentals remain supportive, the market could face short-term cooling before establishing sustainable upside momentum.

Bitcoin’s scarcity signal cools!
At the time of writing, the Stock-to-Flow ratio has dropped by over 55%, signaling a temporary decline in Bitcoin’s scarcity-driven valuation narrative. 

This metric, which measures the relationship between circulating supply and new issuance, often serves as a long-term confidence barometer. 

The sharp decline indicates that supply-side dynamics are no longer the dominant market driver. Nevertheless, institutional holders continue to accumulate during dips, hinting that long-term conviction remains firm. 

This contrast between immediate scarcity weakness and strategic accumulation points toward a market recalibration rather than a loss of intrinsic value.

Heavy liquidation clusters at $123K highlight…
The Binance BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap shows concentrated clusters between $122K and $124K, suggesting an important resistance barrier. 

These zones represent heavily leveraged trader positions likely to be liquidated during volatile price swings. 

A clean breakout above this area could trigger a cascading short squeeze, propelling Bitcoin toward $126K–$128K. 

Conversely, another rejection may push prices back toward $120K as leveraged traders unwind. The market’s next decisive move will likely emerge from how Bitcoin handles this congestion zone in the coming sessions.

Can emotional recovery overcome sell dominance?
Despite improving sentiment, Spot Taker CVD data reveals persistent sell-side dominance, suggesting that many traders are still exiting positions. 

This imbalance highlights cautious short-term behavior even as long-term confidence strengthens. 

If Taker Sell activity continues to fade, buying pressure could regain control, supporting further upward movement. However, if sell dominance persists, the rally may stall near $123K resistance. 

Overall, Bitcoin’s emotional recovery and improving on-chain metrics provide a solid foundation for growth, but sustained momentum will depend on overcoming short-term selling pressure.

To sum up, Bitcoin’s market structure is entering a psychological recovery phase, marked by improving sentiment and early accumulation. 

Although taker sell pressure and high NVT levels signal caution, emotional strength and long-term conviction suggest resilience. 

If Bitcoin breaks through $123K and sustains confidence-driven momentum, a push toward $130K becomes increasingly likely.

~ Partnership Expands Super League’s Playable Media Solutions for Global Brands Across Proven, High Volume Advertising Channels, Enabling Future Growth and Further Revenue Diversification ~ 

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Oct. 10, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Super League (Nasdaq: SLE), a leader in playable media trusted by global brands to reach and activate gaming audiences through playable ads and gamified content, today announced an exclusive sales partnership with ES3, a leading technology and media solutions company specializing in interactive content experiences for connected TV (CTV) and traditional Pay TV environments.

Super League will serve as the exclusive third-party sales partner for INGAGE, a gamified content module that is activated through ads on CTV devices and platforms, designed to transform how brands and advertisers connect with streaming audiences. ES3’s INGAGE interactive experiential ad platform has produced notable programs with Warner Bros. Discovery’s “Superman”, Game of Thrones, HBO, MGM+ and more. This partnership combines ES3’s advanced CTV media capabilities with Super League’s track record of delivering successful advertising programs that drive results through gameplay. Together, the companies will scale access to interactive, measurable ad experiences that merge entertainment, engagement, and commerce.

CTV ad spend is projected to grow from $33 billion in 2025 to $47 billion by 2028 and surpass traditional TV advertising for the first time according to eMarketer. As viewers become more selective, with studies showing increased ad skipping and creative fatigue across streaming platforms, demand for immersive, attention-driven formats continues to surge. Leveraging the INGAGE interactive advertising platform, Super League and ES3 are redefining campaign effectiveness, helping brands stand out, drive purchase intent, and unlock direct monetization opportunities. Super League’s Native Playables consistently deliver 3–7× higher engagement than traditional mobile video, while INGAGE interactive units average 20 minutes of active interactivity and achieve click-through rates of up to 70%, demonstrating the unmatched effectiveness of play-based advertising.

“Playable media is powerful, full-stop. It commands attention, deepens engagement, and creates emotional connection. With ES3, we’re bringing that power to the heart of the connected TV experience, enabling brand relationships to be built through participation, not interruption,” said Matt Edelman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Super League. “The majority of people aged 6 to 60 play video games as part of their daily content diet. Our partnership enables brands to transform moments of passive viewing into moments of joyful play, and for Super League, it opens an entirely new frontier of growth in one of the fastest-rising sectors of the media landscape.”

“Super League and ES3 have established themselves as leaders in the evolution of interactive and gamified media in their respective target markets and platforms,” said Doug Edwards, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of ES3. “Together, we’re reimagining how storytelling works in a connected environment, bringing together the scale of CTV, the impact of gaming and interactivity with the precision of data-driven media.”

About Super League
Super League (Nasdaq: SLE) is transforming how brands engage with consumers through the power of playable media. The company delivers ads, content, and immersive experiences that go beyond being seen, they’re played, felt, and remembered across mobile games and the world’s largest immersive gaming platforms. Powered by proprietary technology, an award-winning development studio, and a vast network of native creators, Super League offers a unique partnership for brands seeking to stand out culturally, inspire loyalty, and drive meaningful impact. In an attention-driven world, Super League makes brands relevant by making them playable. For more information, visit superleague.com.

About ES3™
ES3 is the leader in interactive TV application experiences for TV. Over the past 23 years, ES3 has delivered leading interactive video products with top customers and brands through the most pivotal times in entertainment history. Over the years, ES3 has established customers relationships with Bell Canada, Bell Media, DIRECTV, AT&T, Comcast, Rogers, Microsoft, Intel, TiVo and many more.

ES3 redefines the way brands connect with relevant audiences through immersive, experiential campaigns–driving discovery and conversion. ES3’s one-of-a-kind interactive experiential ad marketing platform INGAGE, has been used by brands such as Game of Thrones, HBO, HBO Max, Discovery, Crave and more. ES3’s fully programmed holiday events, such as Santa Tracker and Holiday Countdown are world renowned and are delivered to more than 27 million TV households in Canada and the US.

ES3 connects businesses to relevant audiences
 and audiences to relevant brands through its Professional Services practice and its Subscription OnDemand programs. The company is one of the largest aggregators of subscription video on demand to pay television operators in the US and Canada, with over 18 catalogues and thousands of hours of exclusive content for distribution to pay TV under license.

Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

Forward Looking Statements can be identified by words such as “anticipate,” “intend,” "plan," "goal," "seek," "believe," "project," "estimate," "expect," "strategy," "future," "likely," "may," "should," "will" and similar references to future periods. Forward-looking statements include all statements other than statements of historical fact, including, without limitation, all statements regarding the private placement, including expected proceeds, expected use of proceeds and expected closing, expectations regarding the Company’s debt levels upon closing of the private placement, Super League’s ability to regain compliance with the Listing Rules of the Nasdaq Capital Market, expectations and timing with respect to a stockholder meeting, statements regarding expected operating results and financial performance (including the Company’s commitment to and ability to achieve Adjusted EBITDA-positive results in Q4), strategic transactions and partnerships, and capital structure, liquidity, and financing activities. These statements are based on current expectations, estimates, forecasts, and projections about the industry and markets in which the Company operates, management’s current beliefs, and certain assumptions made by the Company, all of which are subject to change.

Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that are difficult to predict and that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Important factors include, but are not limited to: the Company’s ability to satisfy the closing conditions required to consummate the private placement, whether the consummation of the private placement will occur, the Company’s ability to execute on cost reduction initiatives and strategic transactions; customer demand and adoption trends; the timing, outcome, and enforceability of any patent applications; the ability to successfully integrate new technologies and partnerships; platform, regulatory, and legislative developments (including the ultimate scope, timing, and impact of any stablecoin legislation); macroeconomic and market conditions; compliance with Nasdaq Capital Market continued listing standards; access to, and the cost of, capital; and the other risks and uncertainties described in the section entitled “Risk Factors” in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, the Company’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarters ended March 31, 2025 and June 30, 2025, and other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date hereof. Except as required by law, the Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this release or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.

Super League Investor Relations Contact:
Shannon Devine / Mark Schwalenberg
MZ North America
Main: 203-741-8811
[email protected]

ES3 press inquiries should be directed to: ES3 Media Relations
[email protected]