Market Signal Briefing

The stock has been surging to start 2026.

Semiconductor equipment company ASML Holding (ASML 2.19%) saw its order momentum continue in the fourth quarter. While the stock didn't gain much traction from its earnings report, it is still up more than 30% in January and has more than doubled over the past year, as of this writing.

Given the stock's strong performance to start the year, let's take a closer look at its latest results and prospects to determine whether or not it's too late to buy shares of ASML.

Image source: Getty Images.

Strong order outlook ASML is one of the most important companies in the semiconductor value chain. It has a monopoly on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology, which is the manufacturing process used to make advanced chips, such as graphics processing units (GPUs) and high bandwidth memory (HBM). As foundries and memory makers rush to increase capacity due to the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure boom, the company is seeing strong order growth.

For the quarter, its revenue rose 5% higher to 9.7 billion euros ($11.6 billion) and came in toward the high end of the company's guidance range of 9.2 billion to 9.8 billion euros ($11 billion to $11.7 billion). Its equipment sales rose 7% year over year to 7.6 billion euros ($9.1 billion), while its service revenue slipped 1% to 2.1 billion euros ($2.5 billion).

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During the quarter, the company sold 94 new lithography systems and eight used systems compared to 119 new and 13 used systems a year earlier. Approximately 48% of its sales came from higher-priced EUV technology versus 42% a year ago, while 36% of its sales were to China versus 27% year ago.

The biggest news out of the quarter, though, was ASML's orders. Its net bookings soared from 5.4 billion euros ($6.4 billion) in Q3 to $13.2 billion euros ($15.8 billion). That was way ahead of the 6.2 billion euros ($7.4 billion) in net bookings that analysts were expecting, according to Visible Alpha.

Looking ahead, the company forecast Q1 revenue to be between 8.2 billion euros ($9.8 billion) and 8.9 billion euros ($10.6 billion) and 2026 revenue of between 34 billion euros ($40.6 billion) and 39 billion euros ($46.5 billion), representing growth of 4% to 19%.

Is the stock a buy? As a monopoly on the technology needed to make advanced chips and memory, ASML is in a good position. However, its revenue growth, while solid, has not been as strong as you might think it should be, given the huge demand for data center infrastructure. This is largely due to a slowdown in its China revenue. It's not allowed to sell its EUV technology into the country, and there had been a pull-forward in demand for even its older machines.

While I like the stock over the long term, given the stock's recent surge and moderate revenue growth, I'd stay on the sidelines for now.

Glowing light bulb with dollar sign inside on dark blue background. Money making idea and Growth of dollar exchange rate Concept. 3D Render.

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My prediction for 2026? Strange as it may sound, given the wild headlines we’re seeing pretty much daily, I’m calling for more of the same.

As I said a couple weeks ago, I expect around 12% returns from the S&P 500 this year.

That’s why we’ve been adding to the equity CEFs in the portfolio of our CEF Insider service. Today I want to talk about one of our holdings, in particular: a 9%-payer called the Liberty All-Star Growth Fund (ASG).

We’re zeroing in on this one because its discount to net asset value (NAV, or the value of its underlying portfolio) is the biggest it’s been in three years. As a result, we can buy ASG, and its portfolio of US blue chips, for around 90 cents on the dollar. That markdown helps reduce any worries around valuation as the market keeps rising higher.

Bubble Worries Are a Plus for Us (and This 9%-Paying CEF)Remember that recession we were told had a 100% chance of happening back in 2022? Well, we’re still waiting for it.

Meantime, US GDP rose 4.4% at the last reading for the third quarter, and our most up-to-date estimate, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow indicator is showing over 5% growth for Q4. These are strong numbers, especially with average annual growth around 3%.

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Then there’s AI, which continues to spread through the economy, boosting productivity as it does. When you account for the AI effect, the 13.4% return the S&P 500 has put up over the last 12 months (versus its long-term average of 10.6% annualized) makes sense. The market is simply telling us that it’s pricing in a bit of extra juice from this new tech.

So we’re going to go ahead and let the mainstream crowd fret. The truth is, the numbers don’t support the idea of a bubble right now.

That’s one reason for the 9.8% discount on ASG, which sports a high-quality portfolio of US blue chips like NVIDIA (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL), as well as domestic-focused midcaps like property manager FirstService (FSV) and Pennsylvania retailer Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI).

ASG Discount NAV

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That 9.8% discount makes ASG particularly compelling when you consider that its NAV has gained 11.5% annualized over the last decade.

Something else many CEF investors don’t realize is that a discount like this helps keep a fund’s dividend stable. That’s because, when you calculate ASG’s yearly payout based on NAV, not the discounted market price, you get 8.1%. This is significantly below ASG’s yield on market price and an easier figure for management to cover.

That said, the point is pretty much moot when you consider that the fund’s 11.5% annualized NAV return over the last 10 years means it has been out-earning that payout for a long time.

Now, we do need to bear in mind that ASG’s management ties its dividend to NAV, with the stated goal of paying 8% of NAV as dividends a year, so the payout does float around some. But given ASG’s strong NAV performance, the dividend has been pretty stable for the last three years.

ASG Dividend History

Income Calendar

But all that said, there is a question we need to ask: After three years of the discount getting steeper, should we worry it will never go back to where it used to be?

To answer that, we need to look at where ASG’s total NAV return has gone in that three-year span. And it’s been nowhere but up:

ASG Total Returns

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Over the last three years, ASG has delivered about a 12% total NAV return, a bit above the 11.5% it’s posted over the last decade. Over the long haul, discounts like this tend to narrow in the face of such persistent strong gains.

That makes this discount a sign that ASG is ripe for buying: The market will eventually reward this strong performance (and dividend). But if we buy today, we’ll get in at a discount before that happens.

Michael Foster is the Lead Research Analyst for Contrarian Outlook. For more great retirement income ideas, click here for our latest report “Indestructible Income: 5 Bargain Funds with Steady 9.1% Dividends.”

These companies pay high-yielding and steadily rising dividends.

I think I have an addiction to buying dividend stocks. I love collecting the passive income they provide, which I often reinvest into buying additional dividend-paying stocks. As my passive income grows, I become more financially independent.

I recently bought even more shares of PepsiCo (PEP +3.32%), Main Street Capital (MAIN 1.21%), and Verizon (VZ +11.81%). Here's why I can't stop buying these high-quality, high-yielding dividend stocks.

Image source: Getty Images.

Treating its investors like royalty PepsiCo likely needs no introduction. The global snacking and beverage company's portfolio includes iconic brands such as Pepsi, Gatorade, and Doritos. These brands generate durable cash flow to cover the company's 3.8%-yielding dividend, which is three times higher than the S&P 500's yield of 1.1%.

The company has a remarkable record of increasing its dividend. It raised its payment by another 5% last year, extending its growth streak to 53 consecutive years. That qualifies PepsiCo as a Dividend King as a company with 50 or more years of annual dividend increases.

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PepsiCo's long-term target is to deliver 4% to 6% annual organic revenue growth and high-single-digit earnings per share growth. The company aims to enhance its growth rate through strategic investments. It bought Poppi for $1.7 billion last year and strengthened its long-term strategic partnership with Celsius, which included increasing its stake to 11%. These growth drivers should enable the company to continue increasing its dividend payment.

Dual income streams Main Street Capital is a business development company (BDC). It provides debt and equity capital to lower middle market companies ($10 million to $150 million in annual revenue). It also makes secured debt investments in middle market companies ($25 million to $500 million in revenue) owned by private equity funds. These investments generate interest and dividend income to support the company's dividend payments.

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The BDC has a unique dividend policy. It pays a monthly dividend set at a level it can easily sustain. Main Street Capital has never reduced or suspended its monthly dividend. Instead, it has steadily raised its payment, including by 4% over the past year and by 136% since its IPO in 2007. This payment currently yields 4.8% based on the company's recent share price.

Additionally, Main Street Capital periodically pays a supplemental quarterly dividend. It has paid the same quarterly rate for the past couple of years. When added to its monthly dividend, the BDC has a 6.7% dividend yield based on its annualized payout and share price. With two passive income streams, Main Street Capital is an ideal investment for my strategy.

A big-time yield Verizon also likely needs no introduction. The company provides mobile and broadband services to over 146 million customers. Verizon generates lots of recurring revenue as customers pay their cellphone and internet bills, which supports its 6.9%-yielding dividend.

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The company generates about $20 billion in free cash flow each year after covering the capital expenditures required to maintain and expand its 5G and fiber networks. That easily covers its annual dividend payments, which total about $11.5 billion. The company uses the remaining cash to maintain its financial flexibility.

Verizon recently used some of its financial flexibility to acquire Frontier Communications in a $20 billion deal to bolster its fiber network. This deal should enhance its ability to cross-sell mobile and internet services to more customers, increasing its revenue and margins. Verizon's growth drivers should enable it to continue increasing its dividend, which it has done for the last 19 years in a row.

Padding my passive income I recently bought even more shares of PepsiCo, Main Street Capital, and Verizon because they all pay high-yielding dividends. Even better, all three companies have strong records of increasing their payouts, which should continue. As a result, I should collect even more passive dividend income from them in the future, enabling me to reach financial independence even sooner.

HomeStock IdeasQuick Picks & Lists

SummaryBarrick Mining Corporation’s solid liquidity supports its commitment to shareholder returns, reflected in increased share repurchases and a raise in its quarterly dividend.Johnson & Johnson's performance was augmented by key growth products like Carvykti, promising new data for Rybrevant and more favorable erosion trends for legacy franchises.Fiserv’s scale, integrated solutions and deep client relationships create high switching costs and durable recurring revenue—hallmarks of a wide-moat business. tadamichi/iStock via Getty Images

The following segment was excerpted from the Ariel Focus Fund Q4 2025 Commentary.

Shares of gold mining company, Barrick Mining Corporation (B) jumped on strong quarterly results, aided by higher gold production, lower costs and favorable commodity

It's built to flourish with or without current AI hype.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is far from a new technology. People have been using it for quite some time, whether knowingly or not. However, the current AI boom is a technological turning point that many would argue we haven't seen since the introduction of the internet.

As with any new industry trend, there's been a lot of investor optimism, but at some point, this turns into speculation. We've seen this story plenty of times in the market. This isn't to say AI's a bubble (the technology is here to stay), but current valuations rightfully bring on skepticism.

Fortunately, there's one company that's a key piece to the AI supply chain that you can count on regardless: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 2.66%).

Image source: Getty Images.

TSMC's role in the AI world A good way to understand TSMC's AI role is by working backward from the AI applications and tools people use daily. For those AI tools to be effective, they need to be trained on more data than you can fathom. This data is stored, and AI models are trained inside data centers that contain hardware like graphics processing units (GPUs), AI accelerators, and central processing units (CPUs).

Different companies design these hardware pieces, but they have one thing in common: They rely on TSMC to manufacture their chips and bring them to life. It has a virtual monopoly on manufacturing advanced AI chips because it's the one company tech companies trust the most to be efficient and handle the necessary scale.

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Thriving with or without AI If the current AI boom slows or turns out to be a bubble, many companies will fail or find themselves in trouble, scrambling to pivot their businesses. TSMC isn't one of them. Companies like Apple rely on TSMC to make its smartphone chips; Nvidia relies on it for its GPUs; Tesla relies on it for its self-driving chips; Broadcom relies on it for its networking hardware; and there are plenty more companies you can plug in there.

AI-related revenue has undoubtedly contributed to TSMC's growing earnings and demand in recent years. It had its best year ever in 2025, bringing in $122 billion in revenue (up nearly 36% year over year).

TSM Revenue (Annual) data by YCharts

Without AI, TSMC's growth would take a hit, sure. However, it would be far from detrimental to TSMC's overall long-term business.

Tech hardware will continue to need chips, and most tech companies will continue to rely on TSMC. With chip manufacturing having such a high barrier to entry, as long as TSMC continues to invest in improving its technology and expanding its capabilities, it should remain the world's most important chip manufacturer for some time.

Stefon Walters has positions in Apple and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple, Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Chevron Corporation NYSE: CVX delivered mixed results in its fourth-quarter earnings report. The integrated oil giant had a slight miss on revenue, but earnings came in above expectations.

Top 3 U.S. Marijuana Stocks to Watch in February 2026 The U.S. cannabis sector enters February 2026 at a critical inflection point. Market sentiment has improved, yet investors remain selective. After several years of consolidation, attention is shifting toward operators with scale and execution. As a result, established multi-state operators continue drawing interest.

Although price volatility remains, long-term demand continues growing. State-level legalization continues to expand, while medical programs remain stable. Meanwhile, federal reform discussions still influence sentiment, even without firm timelines. Therefore, investors are focusing on companies positioned to survive uncertainty.

Profitability now matters more than rapid expansion. Companies are tightening operations and protecting margins. In addition, retail scale and brand strength provide stability during downturns. These factors help separate leaders from weaker competitors.

This article highlights three U.S. marijuana stocks worth watching in February 2026. Each company operates at scale and maintains a strong retail footprint. Together, they represent key players shaping the future of U.S. cannabis.

[Read More] Best Ancillary Cannabis Stocks to Watch in February 2026

Top U.S. Cannabis Operators to Watch as 2026 Momentum Builds Trulieve Cannabis Corp. (OTC: TCNNF) Curaleaf Holdings, Inc. (OTC: CURLF) Verano Holdings Corp. (OTC: VRNOF) Trulieve Cannabis Corp. (TCNNF) Trulieve Cannabis Corp. remains one of the most dominant cannabis operators in the United States. The company operates a vertically integrated business model. It focuses on cultivation, processing, distribution, and retail sales. As a result, Trulieve maintains control across the entire value chain.

Trulieve’s largest presence remains in Florida. The state continues serving as the company’s core revenue engine. However, Trulieve has expanded aggressively beyond Florida. It now operates in states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, Maryland, Ohio, and Connecticut. These markets provide exposure to both medical and adult-use demand.

As of early 2026, Trulieve operates more than 230 dispensaries nationwide. This large footprint gives the company strong brand visibility. Additionally, its loyalty program continues driving repeat customer visits. Trulieve also offers a wide product portfolio across flower, edibles, concentrates, and vapes.

Importantly, the company has focused on disciplined expansion. Instead of chasing growth at any cost, Trulieve targets profitable markets. This approach has helped it remain competitive during industry slowdowns. Consequently, Trulieve continues ranking among the largest U.S. cannabis companies by revenue.

From a financial perspective, Trulieve has emphasized cash flow and balance sheet strength. Recent quarterly results showed stable revenue despite pricing pressure. Gross margins remained healthy compared to industry peers. This reflects efficient cultivation and strong retail execution.

Operating cash flow continues to support day-to-day operations. Meanwhile, management has taken steps to address near-term debt obligations. Strategic refinancing actions have extended maturities and improved liquidity. These efforts reduce financial risk during uncertain conditions.

Although net income remains pressured, Trulieve’s core operations remain resilient. The company continues generating meaningful EBITDA. Capital expenditures are now more targeted, which supports margin protection. Additionally, Trulieve maintains sufficient cash reserves to fund selective growth.

Looking ahead, Trulieve remains well-positioned. Its dominant retail presence and operational discipline provide stability. As regulatory clarity improves, the company could benefit significantly from its scale and infrastructure.

[Read More] Here Are 3 Marijuana Stocks For Investors 2026

Curaleaf Holdings, Inc. (CURLF) Curaleaf Holdings stands as the largest cannabis company in the United States by revenue. The company operates across numerous states and markets. Its scale provides diversification and risk mitigation. As a result, Curaleaf remains a cornerstone of the U.S. cannabis industry.

Curaleaf operates more than 160 dispensaries nationwide. Its largest retail presence is in Florida. The state continues to account for a significant share of total sales. Additionally, Curaleaf maintains strong positions in New Jersey, New York, Arizona, and Illinois. These states offer exposure to high-population markets.

The company also operates extensive cultivation and processing facilities. This vertical integration supports a consistent product supply. Curaleaf’s brand portfolio includes Select, Grassroots, and Curaleaf-branded products. These brands remain well recognized among consumers.

Importantly, Curaleaf continues focusing on operational efficiency. Rather than aggressive expansion, the company prioritizes optimizing existing assets. This strategy helps preserve margins and improve cash flow. Consequently, Curaleaf remains one of the most resilient operators during market volatility.

Financially, Curaleaf continues generating over a billion dollars in annual revenue. Recent quarterly trends showed stabilization after prior declines. Sequential improvements reflected stronger retail performance and cost controls. Gross margins improved modestly, despite competitive pricing pressures.

Adjusted EBITDA remains a key focus for management. The company continues to reduce expenses and streamline operations. Debt management also remains a priority heading into 2026. Curaleaf has worked to extend maturities and improve capital structure flexibility.

While net profitability remains elusive, losses have narrowed compared to prior years. This improvement reflects disciplined spending and operational focus. Additionally, Curaleaf continues investing selectively in adult-use markets with high returns.

Looking forward, Curaleaf’s size offers unique advantages. Its nationwide footprint positions the company well for federal reform. If regulatory changes occur, Curaleaf could scale rapidly due to its infrastructure.

[Read More] February 2026 Watchlist: Leading Canadian Cannabis Stocks

Verano Holdings Corp. (VRNOF) Verano Holdings is a vertically integrated cannabis operator headquartered in Chicago. The company operates across multiple U.S. states. Its footprint includes Illinois, Florida, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. These states represent key cannabis markets.

Verano operates dozens of retail dispensaries under brands like Zen Leaf and MÜV. While smaller than some peers, its retail network remains strategically placed. The company also maintains cultivation and processing facilities to support wholesale operations.

Product quality remains central to Verano’s strategy. The company emphasizes premium offerings and consistent branding. This focus helps attract loyal customers across competitive markets. Additionally, Verano continues expanding selectively where regulations allow.

Although Verano operates fewer dispensaries than its larger peers, its footprint remains meaningful. The company balances retail growth with operational discipline. As a result, Verano has remained relevant in a challenging market.

Financially, Verano has faced revenue pressure over the past year. Industry pricing compression and competition impacted top-line results. However, management has focused heavily on cost control. This approach has helped protect margins relative to peers.

Adjusted EBITDA margins remain competitive despite revenue challenges. Verano has also taken steps to improve liquidity. Amendments to credit facilities have provided flexibility. These actions reduce near-term financial strain.

Net losses remain significant, reflecting ongoing investments and restructuring costs. However, leadership continues to prioritize operational efficiency. Capital spending has slowed, which supports cash preservation.

Looking ahead, Verano remains a higher-risk, higher-reward operator. If market conditions improve, operating leverage could drive meaningful upside. For investors seeking exposure beyond the largest operators, Verano remains worth watching in February 2026.

MAPH Enterprises, LLC | (305) 414-0128 | 1501 Venera Ave, Coral Gables, FL 33146 | [email protected]

In a global investor survey from Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode, 1 in 4 institutions agreed that crypto has now entered a bear market. Yet the majority of institutions still said Bitcoin was undervalued, and most said they had held or increased exposure since October.

That discrepancy matters because it captures how institutions are positioning right now: caution about the regime, a willingness to stay allocated, and a preference for concentrating risk in Bitcoin rather than in smaller, more volatile tokens that can unwind quickly when leverage comes out.

A bear market label, a value bidThe report’s market framing explains why the paradox exists.

October’s deleveraging did real damage to altcoin price action, but Bitcoin dominance barely moved, edging from 58% to 59% in the fourth quarter of 2025.

That stability matters because it shows the selling wasn’t evenly distributed. It was a washout in the long tail more than a broad rejection of crypto, with Bitcoin acting like the asset you keep when you’re cutting risk but not exiting the category.

David Duong, Coinbase Institutional’s global head of research, offered a clean way to reconcile the “bear market” language with “undervalued” conviction in an interview for CryptoSlate.

His point was that institutions often use cycle labels to describe regime and positioning, while “value” is a longer-horizon assessment tied to adoption, scarcity, structure, and the policy backdrop.

“When institutions assess Bitcoin’s value, they look beyond near-term price action to factors such as adoption, scarcity, improving market structure, and clearer regulatory frameworks.

Historically, bear markets often signal periods of tighter liquidity and weaker sentiment that ultimately lay the foundation for renewed institutional participation and future growth.

In other words, when an investor calls this a bear market (and that’s not our view, by the way), they’re describing the phase of the cycle and prevailing risk appetite.

Positioning may be defensive, liquidity is selective, and price action might either be trending lower or chopping with a negative skew.

They’re talking about the regime we’re trading in right now, not where they think Bitcoin should ultimately settle.”

The report’s own data lines up with that interpretation. It shows a market that has stopped rewarding indiscriminate risk-taking but hasn’t lost the bid for the largest assets.

Coinbase and Glassnode say perpetual futures were hit hardest, with their systematic leverage ratio falling to 3% of the total crypto market cap (excluding stablecoins).

At the same time, options open interest spiked as traders rushed to defend against further price weakness.

As an institution, if your instinct is that it’s a bear market, you buy insurance, reduce liquidation risk, and keep the exposure you still want through vehicles that won’t force you out at the worst possible time.

From perps to protectionThe easiest mistake to make here is to treat “undervalued” as a single valuation model that everyone shares.

In practice, both the report and Duong describe a bundle of assumptions that looks more like market structure than a neat discounted cash flow argument.

Start with what changed in derivatives.

The report says BTC options OI has overtaken perpetual futures OI, with the 25-delta put-call skew in positive territory across 30-day, 90-day, and 180-day expiries, and that doesn’t happen in a market that’s trying to maximize upside through leverage.

It happens in a market that’s willing to stay long, but determined to define risk.

Duong described the same migration to options when asked what institutions did after October’s liquidation reset:

“Institutional interest in expanding on-chain remained after the October reset, but in a measured, multi-venue way.

Moreover, institutions increasingly expressed views via options and basis trades, which give convexity or carry without the same liquidation risk that drove the October move.”

That last line is the key, and it shows that institutions changed how they take exposure.

Options and basis trades aren’t headline-making strategies, but they are how a professional book stays in the game when the regime punishes overextension.

On-chain data is telling the same story.

Coinbase and Glassnode say sentiment, as measured by entity-adjusted NUPL, deteriorated from Belief to Anxiety in October and stayed there through the quarter. While that’s certainly not euphoric, it isn’t capitulation either.

Graph showing Bitcoin's entity-adjusted NUPL ratio from Jan. 2020 to Jan. 2026 (Source: Coinbase Institutional)The drop in entity-adjusted NUPL shows the market stopped paying you for optimism, but is still hanging around. This interpretation fits a world where investors can be wary about the current phase while still seeing the asset as cheap relative to where they think the equilibrium sits.

The report also notes that, in the fourth quarter of 2025, BTC that moved within three months rose by 37%, while BTC that remained unmoved for more than a year fell by 2%, which the authors interpret as a distribution phase late in 2025.

Graph comparing Bitcoin's dormant and active supplies from 2016 to 2026 (Source: Coinbase Institutional)If you want to take the institutional viewpoint seriously, distribution doesn’t have to be a death sentence. It can mean large holders de-risked into strength, and the market is now trying to find the next set of hands that will own supply without needing a constant liquidity drip.

This is where the claim about Bitcoin being “undervalued” stops being about a single fair-value number and starts being about the belief that Bitcoin has become the only asset in crypto that can absorb capital in size without needing a retail bid to hold the structure together.

Duong explicitly separated Bitcoin’s underwriting framework from the rest of the crypto market:

“Unlike retail participants, who often focus on short-term price movements and market cycles, institutions place less emphasis on timing and more on Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition.

In this context, Bitcoin is increasingly treated as a strategic, store-of-value asset and macro hedge, rather than a speculative token within the broader crypto universe.”

That maps onto what the report says about large-caps versus small-caps.

Their topline view for the first quarter of 2026 favors larger-cap tokens, with smaller caps still dealing with October’s aftermath.

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Given this, seeing Bitcoin as “undervalued” may be less about it being cheap in isolation and more about it being the only crypto asset that institutions can treat as a durable allocation when the regime is unfriendly.

Liquidity is the real cycleThe second pillar of the paradox is the time horizon.

Calling something a bear market is usually a shorter-window judgment, while calling something undervalued is often a longer-window judgment. The bridge between them is whether institutions still believe the market is ruled by a four-year clock, or whether they have moved toward a macro framework where liquidity, rates, and policy do most of the work.

Duong’s view is that the four-year cycle still exists as a behavioral reference point, but institutions don’t treat it as a hard model.

He argued that the halving has less power for institutions once you control for the macro variables that drive all risk assets:

“In our conversations with these entities, the four-year cycle is still a reference point, but mostly as a behavioral template rather than a hard model.

They’ll look at where we are relative to prior cycle lows/highs, halving dates, and typical drawdown/recovery patterns, because those levels matter for positioning and sentiment.

That said, the evidence that halvings causally drive each cycle is weak: we only have four observations, and they’re heavily confounded by big macro and policy shifts (QE, COVID stimulus, etc.).

In our 2026 Outlook, we explicitly argue the economic relevance of the halving is somewhat specious once you control for liquidity, rates, and dollar dynamics.”

The report points to December CPI holding at 2.7%, and cites the Atlanta Fed GDPNow projecting 5.3% real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2025. It outlines a base case where the Fed delivers the two rate cuts (50 bps total) priced into fed funds futures, which the authors view as a tailwind for risk assets.

They also flag a cooling jobs market, with 584,000 jobs added in 2025 versus 2 million in 2024, and they name AI adoption as one driver of that moderation.

You don’t need to buy every macro inference to see what’s happening: the institutional view of Bitcoin being “undervalued” is built on a macro-and-liquidity scaffold rather than a pure crypto-cycle scaffold.

The report’s liquidity section makes that explicit with a custom Global M2 index that Coinbase says leads Bitcoin by 110 days and shows a 0.9 correlation with BTC’s moves across many look-back windows. If you accept that framing, the paradox becomes easier to understand.

Graph comparing Bitcoin to Coinbase's custom M2 money supply from September 2024 to January 2026 (Source: Coinbase Institutional)You can look at the regime, see the scars from October, see a market that still wants downside protection, and still conclude that Bitcoin sits in a favorable long-duration setup if policy and liquidity do what you expect them to do.

Only then does “bear market” become a description of how the market behaves today, and “undervalued” becomes a statement about how that market reprices once the macro inputs turn more supportive.

So what would break this thesis?

Duong rejected the idea that a routine pullback would be enough and instead pointed to a cluster of macro and on-chain conditions that would have to fail together:

“Institutions aren’t anchoring on price alone, they’re anchoring on macro liquidity conditions and onchain market structure.

The clearest signal that they might be wrong wouldn’t be a routine pullback, but a breakdown in the fundamental drivers of that thesis.

In other words, it wouldn’t be one signal alone, but it would have to be a cluster of signals.

For example, if macro liquidity conditions were to turn decisively against risk assets, if onchain accumulation metrics were to reverse, if long-term holders were distributing into weakness, and if institutional demand indicators were to trend persistently negative, that combination might meaningfully challenge the view that Bitcoin is undervalued or structurally supported at present.”

The survey numbers suggest institutions are split on what phase the market is in, but aligned on Bitcoin’s relative appeal.

The report’s charts show how that belief expresses itself in real positioning: less reliance on fragile leverage, more use of options for defined risk, and a market that has cooled without fully breaking.

Duong’s answers add connective tissue to this thesis that shows “undervalued” is a framework anchored to liquidity, structure, and time horizon, not a vibe check of the market.

Whether institutions end up right depends less on winning a short-term argument about cycle labels and more on whether that framework holds together when the next macro test arrives.

Mentioned in this articlePosted in

Rebeca Moen Feb 01, 2026 14:41

MATIC shows bearish momentum at $0.38 with RSI at 38. Technical analysis suggests potential recovery to $0.45-$0.52 range within 4-6 weeks if key resistance breaks.

MATIC Price Prediction Summary • Short-term target (1 week): $0.40-$0.42
• Medium-term forecast (1 month): $0.45-$0.52 range
• Bullish breakout level: $0.56 (Upper Bollinger Band) • Critical support: $0.31 (Lower Bollinger Band)

What Crypto Analysts Are Saying About Polygon While specific analyst predictions from major crypto KOLs are limited in recent days, available market analysis provides some insight into MATIC's trajectory. According to Felix Pinkston's January 6th assessment, "MATIC price prediction targets $0.45-$0.52 recovery within 4-6 weeks, contingent on breaking key $0.58 resistance."

This Polygon forecast aligns with technical resistance levels identified through on-chain data analysis. According to current market metrics, MATIC remains in a consolidation phase below key moving averages, suggesting cautious optimism among market participants.

MATIC Technical Analysis Breakdown Polygon's current technical picture presents a mixed but potentially recovering scenario. At $0.38, MATIC is trading significantly below its key moving averages, with the 20-day SMA at $0.43 and the 50-day SMA at $0.45 acting as immediate resistance levels.

The RSI reading of 38.00 places MATIC in neutral territory, avoiding oversold conditions that could trigger panic selling. However, the MACD histogram at -0.0000 indicates bearish momentum is still present, though weakening.

Polygon's position within the Bollinger Bands is particularly telling. With a %B position of 0.29, MATIC is trading in the lower portion of the bands but hasn't touched the lower band at $0.31, suggesting some underlying support remains intact. The middle band at $0.43 represents the first major hurdle for any recovery attempt.

The Stochastic oscillator shows %K at 25.19 and %D at 20.15, indicating MATIC may be approaching oversold territory where buying interest could emerge.

Polygon Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case Bullish Scenario If MATIC can reclaim the 20-day SMA at $0.43, the path opens toward the 50-day SMA at $0.45. A successful break above this level could trigger the recovery scenario outlined in recent analysis, targeting the $0.45-$0.52 range.

The ultimate bullish target sits at the Upper Bollinger Band near $0.56, which coincides with the resistance level mentioned in analyst predictions. For this MATIC price prediction to materialize, Polygon would need to see increased trading volume above the current $1.07 million daily average and positive momentum confirmation through MACD crossover.

Bearish Scenario Failure to hold current levels could see MATIC test the Lower Bollinger Band at $0.31. This represents approximately 18% downside risk from current prices. A break below this critical support level could trigger further selling pressure, potentially targeting the psychological $0.30 level.

The bearish case is reinforced by MATIC trading below all major moving averages, with the 200-day SMA at $0.69 showing the longer-term downtrend remains intact.

Should You Buy MATIC? Entry Strategy Current technical conditions suggest a cautious approach to MATIC accumulation. The optimal entry strategy involves:

Primary Entry Zone: $0.38-$0.40 (current levels to slight resistance) Stop-Loss Level: $0.30 (below Lower Bollinger Band) Target 1: $0.43 (20-day SMA reclaim) Target 2: $0.45-$0.52 (medium-term recovery zone)

Risk management remains crucial given the bearish MACD momentum. Position sizing should account for the potential 20% downside to the $0.31 support level.

For more aggressive traders, a breakout strategy above $0.43 with volume confirmation could offer better risk-reward ratios, though this requires waiting for technical confirmation.

Conclusion This MATIC price prediction suggests cautious optimism for Polygon's recovery potential over the next 4-6 weeks. While current momentum remains bearish, the technical setup doesn't indicate severe oversold conditions, leaving room for the projected $0.45-$0.52 Polygon forecast to materialize.

The key catalyst will be MATIC's ability to reclaim the $0.43 resistance level with sustained volume. Until this occurs, traders should expect continued consolidation around current levels.

Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency price predictions are inherently speculative and subject to high volatility. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and risk assessment before making investment decisions.

Image source: Shutterstock

matic price analysis matic price prediction

Convicted pedophile Jeffrey Epstein claimed he talked to the actual people behind Bitcoin, and now we’ve got the receipts.

A 2016 email from Epstein was found in the Department of Justice’s giant 3 million-file release, and he straight-up said he had conversations with “some of the founders of Bitcoin.”

That email was sent to two Saudi contacts from his Gmail account, and the disgraced so-called “financier” was pitching an entire Middle Eastern fiat system; one religious, one digital.

The email laid out his plan to build a Sharia-based currency, with Epstein wanting one version to be physical, stamped with “In God We Trust,” and the other version to be digital, linked to the Bitcoin network. Epstein said the people behind Bitcoin were “very excited” about the idea. He was waiting on the Saudis to respond with dates.

Epstein’s plan mixed religion, crypto, and royal connections In the October 13, 2016, email, Epstein called his ideas “radical.” He said the first would be a fiat currency called ‘the Sharia’, meant for internal use among Muslims in the Middle East. Every bill would carry the phrase “In God We Trust,” like U.S. dollars do, but with a religious stamp tailored to Islamic finance.

Then came the second idea. He suggested building a digital Sharia-compliant currency powered by blockchain. And not just any blockchain. He specifically referenced Bitcoin and said he had already spoken to some of the original creators.

He wrote: “I’ve spoken to some of the founders of Bitcoin who are very excited.” He ended the email by saying he hadn’t heard any dates from the Saudi side.

The message included a confidentiality notice at the bottom, warning that it contained privileged information and was not to be shared. Still, it’s now public, sitting in the DOJ dump for anyone to read.

Source: US DOJ These emails also add more fuel to the theory that more than one Satoshi exists. Epstein said “founders,” plural, not one guy. That backs what many in the Bitcoin community have suspected for years: the project wasn’t a solo act.

Other emails tie Epstein to early crypto investors and drama There’s more. A 2013 email sent to Epstein by Boris Nikolic included a long write-up on Bitcoin from Tren Griffin. It had also been sent to Bill Gates, Michael Larson, and other big names in tech.

The message said Bitcoin had exploded in popularity around Silicon Valley and up in Seattle, mostly among libertarian VCs. It said liberal economists hated it because they didn’t want to lose control of money.

Griffin said: “Bitcoins have no intrinsic value. They lay claim to no stream of future earnings.” He also called the whole thing a Keynesian beauty contest where speculators guess what others think is valuable instead of judging real value. He said he wouldn’t touch it himself, but knew others would.

Another email from Austin Hill, dated July 31, 2014, showed drama behind the scenes. He told Epstein and others that his company was upset about investors backing both Ripple and Stellar. He said it was hurting their project and wanted to “reduce or take your allocation away.” Hill said Ripple and Stellar were like betting on two horses in one race and asked for a call to sort things out.

The drop also included opinions from the Winklevoss twins, economist Steve Hanke, and Kurt Eichenwald. They said everything from Bitcoin being a bubble to it being math-based money that cuts out human error. All that info was sent to Epstein by his network, showing just how deep he was in the crypto space early on.

A user on X said, “I told you all 31 Dec 2022 that Gary Gensler was directed through Epstein and Mossad to go after Ripple and XRP. Meanwhile the Bitcoin foundation was backed by Epstein. Now you know it is true. Dear Bitcoiners, you spent a decade calling $XRP the ‘Banker’s coin’ while Jeffrey Epstein was funding the Bitcoin foundation and coordinating with Jamie Dimon and many of the largest banks to position $BTC. Now would be the right time for you to admit how wrong you were.”

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Luisa Crawford Feb 01, 2026 14:59

Chainlink trades at $9.74 with RSI at deeply oversold 23.21 levels. Technical analysis suggests potential bounce to $12-14 range if key resistance breaks.

Chainlink (LINK) has experienced significant selling pressure, trading at $9.74 as of February 1, 2026, down 3.47% in the past 24 hours. Despite the bearish momentum, technical indicators suggest the token may be positioned for a potential recovery as it approaches deeply oversold territory.

LINK Price Prediction Summary • Short-term target (1 week): $10.50-$11.50
• Medium-term forecast (1 month): $12.00-$14.00 range
• Bullish breakout level: $10.84
• Critical support: $8.42

What Crypto Analysts Are Saying About Chainlink Recent analyst commentary has been cautiously optimistic about Chainlink's prospects despite current market weakness. According to Luisa Crawford's analysis from January 28, "Chainlink (LINK) shows potential for 22-27% gains despite current bearish momentum, with analysts targeting $14.50-$15.00 short-term and $15.50-$16.50 medium-term."

Earlier analysis from Crawford on January 26 provided specific LINK price prediction targets: "Short-term target (1 week): $14.50-$15.00; Medium-term forecast (1 month): $15.50-$16.50 range; Bullish breakout level: $14.52; Critical support: $13.20."

MEXC News added to the Chainlink forecast on January 27, noting that "The LINK price prediction for late January 2026 leans cautiously bullish, with technical indicators suggesting potential for a breakout to $15.50 if resistance at $13.61 is cleared with volume."

However, these predictions were made when LINK was trading at higher levels, and the current technical picture requires updated analysis based on recent price action.

LINK Technical Analysis Breakdown The current technical setup for Chainlink presents a mixed but potentially bullish picture for contrarian investors:

RSI Oversold Conditions: At 23.21, Chainlink's RSI has entered deeply oversold territory, historically a level where bounces occur. This represents one of the most oversold readings for LINK in recent months, suggesting selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion.

Moving Average Analysis: LINK is trading significantly below all major moving averages, with the current price of $9.74 sitting well below the SMA 7 ($11.07), SMA 20 ($12.29), and SMA 50 ($12.60). The 200-day SMA at $17.39 remains a distant target, highlighting the extent of the recent decline.

MACD Momentum: The MACD histogram at 0.0000 suggests bearish momentum is potentially stabilizing, though it hasn't turned positive yet. The MACD line at -0.7213 matching the signal line indicates momentum may be at an inflection point.

Bollinger Band Position: With a %B position of -0.0145, LINK is trading just below the lower Bollinger Band at $9.81, indicating oversold conditions. The middle band at $12.29 represents the first major resistance target.

Chainlink Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case Bullish Scenario If LINK can reclaim the immediate resistance at $10.29, the path opens toward stronger resistance at $10.84. A break above this level could trigger a relief rally toward:

First target: $11.50-$12.00 (approaching the SMA 20) Second target: $12.50-$13.00 (testing SMA 50 region) Extended target: $14.00-$15.00 (if broader market conditions improve) Key confirmation signals would include RSI moving above 30, increased trading volume, and a positive MACD crossover.

Bearish Scenario Failure to hold current levels could see LINK test deeper support zones:

Immediate support: $9.08 (daily pivot support) Critical support: $8.42 (strong support level) Extended downside: $7.50-$8.00 if broader crypto market weakness continues A break below $8.42 would signal further technical deterioration and potentially extend the correction.

Should You Buy LINK? Entry Strategy Current oversold conditions present potential opportunities for risk-tolerant investors:

Entry Strategy: Consider dollar-cost averaging between $9.50-$10.50, with the strongest entry opportunity near $9.00-$9.20 if that level is tested.

Stop-Loss: Conservative investors should place stops below $8.40 to limit downside risk.

Risk Management: Given the 24-hour trading range of $8.97-$10.18 and daily ATR of $0.71, position sizing should account for continued volatility.

Conclusion The LINK price prediction suggests a potential recovery opportunity as technical indicators show oversold conditions. While near-term targets of $12-14 appear achievable if resistance levels break, investors should remain cautious given the bearish momentum in recent weeks. The Chainlink forecast depends heavily on broader market conditions and the token's ability to reclaim key technical levels above $10.84.

Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency price predictions are speculative and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and risk assessment before making investment decisions.

Image source: Shutterstock

link price analysis link price prediction

15h05 ▪ 4 min read ▪ by Fenelon L.

Summarize this article with:

A silent revolution is underway on Ethereum. The network has reached a major milestone with 36.6 million ETH staked, representing 30% of the total supply. Giants like Bitmine and BlackRock are accumulating and locking their positions, radically transforming the crypto market structure.

In Brief Ethereum staking hits an all-time high with 36.6 million ETH locked, or 30.13% of the total supply. Institutions like Bitmine are intensifying their positions with 2.58 million ETH staked, worth 7.67 billion dollars. The launch of Lido V3 and its stVaults paves the way for customized staking setups for professional teams. The explosion of institutional staking reshapes the Ethereum landscape Ethereum has just crossed a decisive milestone. According to Validator Queue’s on-chain data released at the end of January, 36.6 million ETH are now staked, marking the first time that the 30% threshold of the total supply has been exceeded.

This spectacular growth has been accelerating for several months, driven by an unprecedented wave of institutional adoption.

Bitmine perfectly illustrates this trend. Tom Lee’s company recently added 250,912 ETH to its staked positions, worth 745 million dollars. Its total now reaches 2.58 million ETH locked, about 61% of its total Ethereum holdings. These figures demonstrate massive confidence in the network’s long-term prospects.

The timing of this explosion is no coincidence. It coincides with the deployment of Lido V3 on the Ethereum mainnet. This new version introduces stVaults, isolated staking environments allowing teams to execute customized validator configurations. Institutions can thus adapt their staking strategy while benefiting from Lido’s liquidity and DeFi integrations.

ETFs also play a major role in this dynamic. BlackRock recently registered its “iShares Staked Ethereum Trust” in Delaware, a regulatory first step before an official filing with the SEC. 

With an average annual yield of 3.95%, these products combine exposure to the ETH price and passive income generation. Grayscale and REX-Osprey have already received authorization to include staking in their Ethereum ETFs, paving the way for other players.

Between enhanced security and liquidity concerns This rise in staking undeniably strengthens the security of the Ethereum network. The more ETH staked, the higher the cost of a potential attack.

Queue mechanisms regulate validator entries and exits, adding validators progressively every 6.4 minutes. This controlled approach avoids sudden shocks that could destabilize the consensus.

Vitalik Buterin recently emphasized the importance of these withdrawal delays. They act as protection against mass withdrawals that could weaken security. The exit queue processes requests block by block, turning what could look like a “rush to exit” into a controlled flow. About 2.45 million ETH were effectively waiting in the exit queue in early November 2025, with 1.5 million ETH waiting to enter.

However, this growing lock-up raises legitimate questions. With nearly one-third of the total supply locked, the liquidity available in the markets is mechanically reduced. 

Investors favoring native staking accept giving up the flexibility of liquid staking tokens like stETH. They retain full control of their keys but face prolonged withdrawal times and the risk of slashing in case of validator misbehavior.

Yet institutions seem convinced. They view Ethereum as the ideal infrastructure for tokenized finance. Most stablecoins, tokenized assets, and institution-grade smart contracts operate on this blockchain.

In short, crossing the 30% threshold of ETH staked marks a radical transformation of the Ethereum network. Between increased security, passive yields, and massive institutional involvement, this movement redefines market balances. It remains to be seen whether this confidence will translate into the anticipated price rise or if liquidity constraints will eventually weigh on the most exposed actors.

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Fenelon L.

Passionné par le Bitcoin, j'aime explorer les méandres de la blockchain et des cryptos et je partage mes découvertes avec la communauté. Mon rêve est de vivre dans un monde où la vie privée et la liberté financière sont garanties pour tous, et je crois fermement que Bitcoin est l'outil qui peut rendre cela possible.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.

Bitcoin is priced at $78,634 as of Feb. 1, 2026, with a total market capitalization of $1.57 trillion. Over the past 24 hours, trading volume runs high at $83.65 billion, with intraday price swings ranging from $77,082 to $82,733. The market attempts to stitch together a recovery narrative—but for now, it's more bandage than breakthrough.

Tony Kim Feb 01, 2026 15:23

LTC Price Prediction Summary • Short-term target (1 week) : $64-67 • Medium-term forecast (1 month) : $72-75 range • Bullish breakout level : $69.33 (SMA 20) • Critical support : $55...

LTC Price Prediction Summary • Short-term target (1 week): $64-67 • Medium-term forecast (1 month): $72-75 range
• Bullish breakout level: $69.33 (SMA 20) • Critical support: $55.26

What Crypto Analysts Are Saying About Litecoin Recent analyst sentiment remains cautiously optimistic despite the current downturn. James Ding noted on January 30th that "Litecoin shows oversold conditions at $64 with RSI at 29.83. Technical analysis suggests LTC price prediction targets $72-75 range by February 2026 despite current bearish momentum."

Iris Coleman echoed similar sentiment, stating that "Litecoin trades at $67.61 with oversold RSI at 35.42. Technical analysis suggests LTC price prediction points to $72-80 recovery as support holds above $65.38." Her analysis aligns with current technical patterns showing potential for a relief bounce.

Zach Anderson's January 27th analysis reinforced this view: "Litecoin shows oversold conditions at $69.17 with RSI at 38.29. Technical analysis and recent analyst forecasts point to $72-80 recovery target by February 2026 as LTC bounces from support levels."

LTC Technical Analysis Breakdown Litecoin's current technical setup presents a compelling case for oversold conditions. Trading at $58.46, LTC has declined 3.40% in the past 24 hours, with the RSI plummeting to an extreme 23.14 level - well below the traditional oversold threshold of 30.

The MACD indicator sits at -4.0699 with a histogram reading of 0.0000, indicating bearish momentum has potentially reached exhaustion. This stagnant MACD histogram often precedes trend reversals in oversold conditions.

Bollinger Bands analysis reveals LTC trading with a %B position of -0.0604, meaning the price is actually below the lower Bollinger Band at $59.62. This extreme positioning historically presents buying opportunities as assets tend to revert toward the middle band at $69.33.

Key moving averages paint a clear picture of the challenge ahead. LTC trades significantly below its SMA 7 ($65.55), SMA 20 ($69.33), and SMA 50 ($75.09), indicating strong bearish sentiment that must be overcome for sustained recovery.

Litecoin Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case Bullish Scenario The primary bullish target aligns with analyst predictions of $72-75, representing a 23-28% upside from current levels. This target corresponds closely with the SMA 50 at $75.09, a critical resistance level that could trigger further upside momentum.

For this Litecoin forecast to materialize, LTC must first reclaim the immediate resistance at $61.40, followed by a decisive break above $64.34. The most significant hurdle lies at the SMA 20 level of $69.33, which has acted as dynamic resistance.

Technical confirmation would come from RSI climbing above 40 and MACD showing positive divergence. Volume expansion above the current 24-hour average of $67.5 million would provide additional validation.

Bearish Scenario Should the current support at $55.26 fail, LTC faces a potential decline toward the strong support zone at $52.06. This represents an additional 11% downside risk from current levels.

A break below $52 could trigger panic selling, potentially pushing Litecoin toward the psychological $50 level. The bearish case would be confirmed by RSI remaining below 30 and sustained trading below the lower Bollinger Band.

Should You Buy LTC? Entry Strategy Current oversold conditions present an attractive risk-reward opportunity for patient investors. The optimal entry zone lies between $55.26-58.46, with the current price near the upper end of this range.

Conservative buyers should wait for a clear reversal signal, such as RSI climbing above 30 or a daily close above $61.40. More aggressive traders can begin accumulating at current levels with tight stop-losses below $54.

Risk management remains crucial given the volatile nature of cryptocurrency markets. A stop-loss at $52 would limit downside to approximately 11%, while the potential upside to $72-75 offers a favorable 2:1 risk-reward ratio.

Conclusion This LTC price prediction suggests a high probability of recovery to the $72-75 range within the next 4-6 weeks, based on extreme oversold conditions and historical precedent. The current RSI reading of 23.14 represents one of the most oversold conditions Litecoin has experienced in recent months.

However, cryptocurrency markets remain highly unpredictable, and this Litecoin forecast should not be considered financial advice. The 70% confidence level in this prediction reflects strong technical signals while acknowledging inherent market volatility. Investors should conduct their own research and never invest more than they can afford to lose.

This analysis is based on technical indicators and historical patterns. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results.

Image source: Shutterstock

ltc price analysis ltc price prediction

Cover image via www.freepik.com Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

As the meme coin continues to decline to new local lows, Shiba Inu is once again under tremendous selling pressure, indicating that bearish control over the asset is still firmly in place.

Bullish setups invalidatedAccording to the most recent price action, SHIB broke below a consolidation structure that had momentarily provided hope for stability before collapsing due to fresh market pressure, and what appeared to be a possible recovery setup was invalidated on the daily chart when SHIB failed to hold the support zone close to recent January lows.

SHIB/USDT Chart by TradingViewThe asset printed another leg downward, pushing the price below crucial short-term support and strengthening the long-term downtrend that has been in place for months rather than creating a higher low and trying to reverse the trend.

HOT Stories

Technically speaking, SHIB is still trading far below its major moving averages, which include the downward-sloping 50, 100 and 200-day lines, usually this alignment indicates persistent bearish momentum as opposed to a brief correction.

Pressure is risingSellers continue to dominate every bounce, as evidenced by the rejection of every rally attempt over the last few weeks in the vicinity of these dynamic resistance zones, and exchange metrics also indicate that pressure is ongoing.

Current data indicates that supply is still outpacing demand, and rising inflows to exchanges typically indicate that holders are getting ready to sell rather than accumulate, the setup suggests that the recent decline is not an isolated incident but rather part of a larger continuation of the downtrend when combined with declining momentum indicators.

More significantly, this breakdown undermines the bullish narratives that are still in place about SHIB, and the loss of support resets market expectations toward additional downside risk contrary to many traders' expectations that a consolidation phase would precede a recovery attempt.

The Sheikh has pushed to buy high-powered AI chips from the U.S. for a startup that he owns, and secured the chips months after acquiring the stake.

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In an interesting turn of events over the weekend, Bitcoin saw an abrupt liquidity cascade, with its price tumbling to as low as $76,000. Barely recovered from their weekday losses, BTC investors must be feeling hard done by, as rare weekend volatility sent them further down.

One of these investors would be Michael Saylor, whose firm, Strategy, was briefly underwater following Bitcoin’s latest price decline. The company’s Bitcoin holdings average cost basis of around $76,000 was tested as record-level liquidations rocked the crypto market.

Strategy’s BTC Holdings On The Verge Of Unrealized Losses  Over the past few months, the price of Bitcoin has struggled to stay above critical levels, including the 360-day moving average and the short-term holders (STH) realized price. Interestingly, the premier cryptocurrency added another cost basis level to this growing list during its latest price decline.

Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, briefly went into the red after BTC price crashed below its holdings’ cost basis at around $76,000. The company, which currently holds more than 712,000 BTC, has had its struggles in recent months, with its stock price (now at $143) tumbling from local highs of $455.

Source: @JA_Maartun on X While the Bitcoin price is now about 2.5% above this Strategy’s average cost basis, there is still a real threat to the premier cryptocurrency. In a case where BTC falls and holds below this level, the Bitcoin treasury company would be sitting on a massive unrealized loss, which could lead to further downturn in market confidence.

Over the past years, there have been no indications that Strategy would offload its Bitcoin holdings should they fall into unrealized losses. Interestingly, Strategy’s chairman and founder, Michael Saylor, posted on the X platform in relation to the downturn, saying the firm is “built for the long run.”

However, there might be a much bigger dynamic at play, especially as sustained trading below their average cost basis could invite scrutiny to the company’s Bitcoin accumulation strategy.

Bitcoin Price Bottom Might Take Months To Form Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, warned investors to stop searching for bottoms after a new leg down. According to the on-chain expert, the latest Bitcoin decline to below $76,000 is not a bull market correction, as the bear phase started as far back as last November.

Moreno wrote in a post on X:

The indicators that help find bottoms in a bull market are of no use currently.

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $78,070, reflecting an over 6% decline in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko data, the premier cryptocurrency is down by about 12% on the weekly timeframe.

The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView Featured image from Michael Saylor/X, chart from TradingView

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This week in the world of cryptocurrency was a mixed bag. While Tesla Inc. reported significant paper losses on its Bitcoin holdings, the U.S. Senate Committee took a step forward in establishing federal regulations for digital assets.

Hint: they didn't blame it on the Fed or the tension in the Middle East.

Although most weekends are typically sluggish, with little to no price actions from the larger caps, there are some exceptions. However, even those are prompted by events that transpire during those non-trading days for the legacy markets, such as Maduro’s capture or some of Trump’s latest tariff threats.

The price shock from yesterday, though, didn’t have such an apparent catalyst to be blamed on. Just the opposite, BTC had already dropped on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve left the interest rates unchanged, and Trump had sent some of the country’s Navy closer to Iran. Moreover, bitcoin and the altcoins even recovered some ground on Friday when the precious metal market crumbled.

So, What’s The Reason? The analysts from the Kobeissi Letter also dismissed the arguments that the Saturday meltdown had anything to do with the situation in Iran or the Fed’s latest actions. Instead, they said, “It’s entirely a liquidity situation.” Their chart shows three well-defined liquidation waves, totaling around $1.3 billion in the span of just 12 hours.

“In a market where liquidity has been choppy at best, sustained levels of extreme leverage are resulting in “air pockets” in price.

Couple this with herd-like sentiment, constantly shifting from extreme bullishness to extreme bearishness, and the swings become even more aggressive,” they explained.

Additionally, the analysts added that this might be a “great time to capitalize [on] polarity in emotion and price.”

10th Largest Liquidation Event The aforementioned $1.3 billion liquidated in just 12 hours was only a portion of the entire amount that was wiped out from over-leveraged investors. CoinGlass data showed at one point that the total value of wrecked positions had skyrocketed to over $2.5 billion.

According to further data from the Kobeissi Letter, this places yesterday’s crash at the 10th spot in terms of daily liquidations.

BREAKING: $2.5 billion worth of levered longs have been liquidated in crypto over the last 24 hours.

This makes today the 10th largest liquidation event in crypto history.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 31, 2026

You may also like: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Tanks Toward $80K as Liquidations Approach $1B Bitcoin Price Holds Steady Despite Partial US Government Shutdown Bitcoin Whale Accumulation Hits Highest Level Since 2024 Amid BTC Price Weakness The undisputed leader here was from October 10, when the entire market tumbled hard. In 24 hours, investors had lost over $19 billion from liquidations.

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One of the most accurate traders in the crypto space, who is known for predicting XRP's multi-month 700% surge back in late 2024, just issued a Bitcoin price outlook. And this time, his tone is anything but euphoric.

A cheap valuation and stunning growth make this AI stock worth buying hand over fist before it soars higher.

Buying and holding a top artificial intelligence (AI) stock for the long run can indeed be a life-changing investment, as is evident from the terrific returns that Nvidia has delivered in the past five years.

An investment of $1,000 in shares of Nvidia made just three years ago is now worth almost $14,000. So, if you'd invested a larger amount in Nvidia stock at the beginning of the AI boom, you would be sitting on remarkable gains presently. The good news is that there is another AI stock that could replicate the stunning gains Nvidia has delivered over the past three years -- Micron Technology (MU 4.80%).

Let's look at the reasons why Micron could be a life-changing investment.

Image source: Micron Technology.

Micron Technology can deliver eye-popping growth for years to come Nvidia's multibagger gains have been powered by its graphics processing units (GPUs). These chips have played, and continue to play, a central role in AI data centers thanks to their ability to process massive workloads in parallel. Micron plays an important role in helping Nvidia's GPUs unlock their full potential with its memory chips.

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Memory is a critical component in AI chips designed by Nvidia and others. It stores massive amounts of data and allows AI chip systems to fetch the data in an instant due to high bandwidth, enabling the chips to function at full capacity. Meanwhile, slower memory could limit the performance of AI accelerators. As a result, demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used in AI data centers is extremely robust, driving outstanding growth in Micron's revenue and earnings.

MU Revenue (Quarterly) data by YCharts.

Notably, HBM is deployed across a wide range of AI accelerators, including both central processing units (CPUs) and custom AI processors. So, it is easy to see why Bloomberg estimates that the size of the HBM market could jump from just $4 billion in 2023 to $130 billion in 2030. Bloomberg predicts that Micron could capture a quarter of this market, suggesting its HBM revenue could increase to $32.5 billion in five years.

Morningstar points out that HBM accounted for 15% of Micron's revenue in fiscal 2025 (which ended in August 2025). Micron generated $37.4 billion in revenue last year, indicating it sold $5.6 billion in HBM chips, according to Morningstar's estimates. So, HBM sales could significantly boost Micron's revenue in the next five years, while additional demand from smartphones, automotive, and personal computers (PCs) could further accelerate its growth.

Investors can expect terrific upside Micron's valuation and growth potential suggest it still has significant room to grow. The stock is trading at just 12.6 times forward earnings, which is well below the Nasdaq-100's forward earnings multiple of 25.8. Analysts are expecting a 300% increase in Micron's earnings in the current fiscal year to $33.17 per share.

Importantly, analysts have become bullish about Micron's prospects for the next year as well, primarily due to the favorable memory pricing environment.

MU EPS Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts.

Assuming Micron generates $42.36 per share in earnings in the next fiscal year and trades in line with the Nasdaq-100's forward earnings multiple, its stock price could jump to $1,093 per share. That's a potential jump of 173% from current levels, indicating that investors can still buy this semiconductor stock, as it can deliver stunning gains even after soaring 277% in the past year.

The post-earnings sell-off seems like an overreaction.

Personal loan leader LendingClub (LC +2.86%) stock pulled back nearly 16% following its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings release on Jan. 28. However, this pullback may be a great chance for investors in the banking sector to capitalize on one of the industry's best growth stories at an incredibly cheap valuation.

Coming into earnings, the stock had more than doubled since the "Liberation Day" bottom in April 2025. So, the market may have been looking for an excuse to take profits on any imperfections.

LendingClub did actually beat revenue and profit estimates in Q4, while also forecasting strong growth for the year ahead. So why did the stock pull back? It appears the forecast for next quarter's earnings per share (EPS) left something to be desired.

However, there were good reasons for the near-term earnings figure. Given that the sell-off seems short sighted, the pullback has created a buying opportunity in this high-growth stock.

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A beat with strong guidance, so what's the problem? In Q4, revenue rose 22.7% to $266.5 million, with EPS rising 338% from last year's near-breakeven mark to $0.35 per share. Both figures actually beat expectations, although not by much. Of note, originations rose 40% to $2.59 billion at the high end of management's original outlook and setting the stage for future growth.

Investors may have taken issue with the current quarter's guidance of flat, quarter-over-quarter originations growth at $2.6 billion and only slight EPS growth in a range of $0.34 to $0.39. On the other hand, investors should also be aware that LendingClub's business is seasonal, with lower first and fourth quarters and higher numbers over the spring and summer.

To that end, management also gave full-year guidance of $11.6 billion to $12.6 billion in originations and a full-year EPS guide of $1.65 to $1.80. While that would mark a deceleration from the outstanding growth of 2025, that guidance would still amount to 26% originations growth and 48% EPS growth at their respective midpoints.

Why investors may have been hoping for even more There's a reason that investors may have been hoping for more. Most significantly, LendingClub is transitioning to a new accounting method for all loans originated beginning in 2026, which should ultimately benefit its bottom line.

Under its prior CECL (current expected credit losses) method, LendingClub had to estimate all future losses for each of its loans held for investment and then deduct most of those losses upfront when it made the loan. So, since LendingClub has been growing over the past two years, that has meant more "upfront" costs, which depress earnings as the company grows.

But with the new Fair Value method -- an accounting method embraced by most of LendingClub's fintech peers -- LendingClub will record positive earnings right away. Although those earnings will grow more slowly over the life of a loan, the method will add earnings right away as loans are added to the loan book.

Given that older loans have already taken their upfront reserves and new loans will be accounted for with higher near-term earnings, investors might have hoped for even more profit growth this year, especially in the current first quarter.

Image source: Getty Images.

But investors should take the pullback as an opportunity While the guide for "only" slightly higher quarter-over-quarter EPS growth might have disappointed some, investors should rest assured there doesn't seem to be any hidden costs here or higher-than-expected credit losses.

Rather, management explained that it is using the accounting change as an opportunity to ramp up marketing investments for future growth, a process that began last year.

After the COVID scare and then the fastest interest rate increases in history in 2022 to 2023, LendingClub pulled back from most marketing channels, except for its most efficient ones. But with interest rates now coming down, loan prices rising, and more big-name financial institutions having signed long-term purchase agreements to buy its loans, LendingClub can now reinvest more aggressively in growth. That process began in 2025, as evidenced by the full-year 33% growth in originations, but LendingClub is also aiming for 20% to 30% annual growth over the next several years.

The thing is, as LendingClub reignites its marketing engine and reenters new channels, the initial ramp is less efficient because the company is testing new content and strategies for these new channels.

I had the pleasure of speaking with CEO Scott Sanborn around the earnings release, and he explained that the company was almost all the way through the tuning of its partner marketing channels, a  process which began in Q2 2025. However, other new channels are a little further behind. To "ballpark" it, Sanborn estimated the company was about 75% of the way to maturity in the direct mail channel and about halfway through paid search optimization. Additionally, Sanborn said the company is beginning an early experimentation with social media and connected TV advertising.

The second and third quarters are higher-volume periods for LendingClub, which can therefore absorb the extra spend and deliver better response rates, which is why LendingClub began its marketing ramp in Q2 of last year. But Sanborn noted on the conference call with analysts that LendingClub is currently seeing such momentum in its business that management is pulling the new social media and connected TV marketing experiments into the seasonally lower Q1.

The company is also investing in technology and personnel behind the new home-improvement lending initiative management announced at last November's Investor Day. LendingClub also announced a new lending initiative with furniture retailers just this month, further ramping its large-purchase consumer finance business. In my interview with Sanborn, he noted that these new verticals won't add much to the growth figures in 2026 but will contribute more heavily in 2027 and especially in 2028 for sustained growth at scale.

Finally, LendingClub is also pursuing a rebranding, as the company has evolved from a peer-to-peer lender in the 2000s to essentially a new-age bank with a more institutional loan-buying base. The research for the rebranding adds an additional near-term cost, but this cost should fade after the rebrand takes place later this year.

The ramp of these growth investments in a seasonally slower quarter likely explains why the Q1 EPS guidance may have disappointed. But it also sets the stage for better earnings growth in 2027 and beyond.

A bargain PEG ratio After LendingClub's post-earnings sell-off, shares trade around $16.50, or just 10 times the lower end of 2026 guidance.

That seems absurdly cheap, given that LendingClub has routinely guided conservatively. Even if one thinks a 48% earnings growth target is unsustainable and only due to this year's accounting change, management still forecasts a 26% originations growth rate. Absent the favorable accounting change, earnings should still grow at least in line with originations going forward.

Meanwhile, by the end of this year, LendingClub's marketing machine should be tuned and ramped for efficiency. That likely means 2027 marketing costs should moderate relative to revenue, so earnings growth should be sustained in 2027 and beyond, even as the accounting change benefit fades.

Going forward, even if LendingClub sustains the low end of its 20% to 30% growth target, a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10 makes for a price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 0.5. Of note, any PEG ratio under 1 is considered quite cheap. And if management hits the high end of 30% EPS growth over the medium term, the PEG ratio would fall to 0.33, which is a ridiculously low valuation, even in the relatively low-priced financial sector.

Archer's share price has soared over the past three years, but there are some significant red flags with this stock.

For the past several years, investors have been excited about the emerging electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) market and its potential to transform transportation. By some estimates, the eVTOL market could be worth $27 billion by 2034.

One company that has received widespread attention and massive share price gains is Archer Aviation (ACHR 3.23%), which makes an eVTOL called Midnight and has been working hard over the past few years to forge partnerships and secure certifications for its planned air taxi services.

All the enthusiasm for Archer and the eVTOL market has pushed the company's share price up 186% over the past three years. So, with its share price hovering around $8, is now a good time to buy Archer stock? I don't think that would be a smart move, and here's why.

Image source: Archer Aviation.

Why many investors are excited about Archer There are a few legitimate reasons why Archer investors are excited about the company. The first is that it has a functioning and impressive aircraft. Its Midnight aircraft has completed many successful test flights and is working on certifications from a handful of countries for its commercial air taxi service.

The company has also forged many partnerships for future air taxi services, including with United Airlines and Southwest Airlines, and received an investment from Stellantis.

What's more, Archer has more than $2 billion in total liquidity, giving the company significant funding to continue investing in its aircraft and technologies. Though, it's worth pointing out that $650 million in recent capital came from a stock sale that diluted shareholder value.

But Archer has a few glaring problems Let's begin with the most obvious problem: Archer generates no revenue. The company has been publicly traded for more than four years and still doesn't have any sales.

Archer's CEO, Adam Goldstein, told Bloomberg in November that the company would begin reporting revenue this year. Those sales, which are likely to be very low initially, could come from the company's expected launch of an air taxi service in Abu Dhabi later this year. While a step in the right direction, Archer's revenue is likely to be minimal for a while, considering the company doesn't expect full-scale passenger flights until 2028.

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Even if we assume that sales begin later this year, there's the bigger issue of Archer's widening losses. The company reported a GAAP net loss of nearly $130 million in the third quarter of 2025, a nearly 13% increase from the year-ago quarter. And costs are rising, with Archer's operating expenses jumping 43% from the year-ago quarter to nearly $175 million in the quarter.

And finally, on top of all of this, it's important to remember that Archer is trying to launch a new service in an unproven market. This means investors have no idea whether its services will actually have enough demand to generate significant sales, how Archer will fend off competition, or if it can reduce its losses and become profitable.

Investing in any stock involves some uncertainty, and there are no guarantees with any investment. But with so many unknowns with Archer right now and the company not having any revenue, buying Archer is a highly speculative move that I believe investors should avoid.

Archer's share price gains over the past few years look far more like investors getting caught up in the "what if" of the eVTOL trend and buying based on the stock's past momentum, rather than on any solid fundamentals of a growing business.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of META, GOOG, AMZN either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

The analysis is provided exclusively for informational purposes and should not be considered professional investment advice. Before investing, please conduct personal in-depth research and utmost due diligence, as there are many risks associated with the trade, including capital loss.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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