Market Signal Briefing

Compounding dividends can lead to life-changing returns.

It can be fun to bet on small, speculative growth stocks to make quick bucks in the market. But if you want to sleep easier at night, look for well-established, dividend-paying companies that can give you a reliable income for years or even decades into the future.

Let's explore some reasons why Realty Income Corporation (O +0.59%) and Phillip Morris International (PM 0.99%) could make excellent long-term buys.

Image source: Getty Images.

Income Realty Corporation
It is often said that real estate is one of the most reliable investments because everyone needs a place to live and do business, and the world isn't making any new land -- unless, of course, the Arctic melts or something. That said, betting on this industry can be challenging because of issues like property taxes, repairs, and bad tenants. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) like Realty Income Corp allow investors to bypass these challenges while getting exposure to the upside.

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The company holds a diversified portfolio of commercial real estate assets, boasting a significant allocation to relatively safe industries like grocery stores, dollars stores, and auto repair shops, which can maintain demand even in a bad economy. This characteristic can make the company's operations somewhat recession-resistant, which is a crucial advantage in this increasingly uncertain economy.

Realty Income further boosts its safety through triple-net leases where the tenant is responsible for property-level operating costs like property taxes, insurance, and maintenance. This strategy helps protect Realty Income from inflation while making its revenue streams more predictable long term.

With a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 37, Realty Income trades at a sharp premium to the S&P 500 average of 22. But you get what you pay for, and the company's size and track record make it stand out from smaller, less established alternatives. Realty Income sweetens the deal with a market-trouncing dividend yield of 5.5%, which it has managed to increase 131 times since its initial public offering (IPO) in 1994.

Phillip Morris International
It may seem hard to believe now, but during the mid-20th century, the tobacco industry generated explosive cumulative growth, akin to big tech today. While those days of heady expansion are over (mainly because of regulation and increasing health consciousness), the industry is still a cash cow because of its relatively low costs, brand stickiness, and addictive nature. Phillip Morris aims to future-proof its business through an aggressive pivot to alternative forms of nicotine.

As of the third quarter, smoke-free products accounted for a whopping 41% ($4.4 billion) of Phillip Morris's net revenue. And this side of the business enjoys encouraging growth drivers from Iqos, its proprietary heated tobacco platform. The recent acquisition of Swedish Match further strengthens Phillip Morris's position in the smoke-free segment and has expanded its global distribution network, especially in the U.S. market.

With a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 18.8, Phillip Morris shares trade at a reasonable valuation, which is a big plus for fundamentals-focused investors because it leaves room for future growth. And when it comes to dividends, the company also stands out with a dividend yield of 4.01% compared to the S&P 500 average of just 1.13%.

Don't underestimate compounding returns
It can be tempting to hunt for the next explosive stock that promises to make you a millionaire overnight. But volatility is usually a two-way street. And over the long term, the stock market has averaged a yearly return of 10% despite all the ups and downs. With that in mind, investors can benefit from buy-and-forget stocks built to stand the test of time.

With dividend yields of 5.6% and 4% annually, Realty Income Corporation and Phillip Morris International take you halfway to the market's average return, while also offering significant potential for capital appreciation because of their stable, recession-resistant business models.

The problem with bubbles is you never know when they will pop or how long the fallout will linger.

Investment bubbles have distinct phases, with the last one being the most painful. Indeed, the excitement can get so fevered that a bubble's collapse can be deep and even take the entire market down along with it. It looks like artificial intelligence (AI) may be a building bubble, with Nvidia (NVDA 0.20%) the poster child for the technology.

Will Nvidia be a safe bet even if the AI bubble deflates?

What does a bubble look like?
Broadly speaking, there are five different phases to an investment bubble. Using artificial intelligence as the example here, displacement was when the new technology came on the scene. The boom has been taking place, as investors rush in to buy AI-related stocks, bidding up their prices. Euphoria is the next stage, which is when investors start to make irrational decisions in the belief that AI-related stocks can only go up.

Image source: Getty Images.

It's worthwhile to take a quick pause here, because there are very clear signs that AI is in this stage. An example is Opendoor Technologies (OPEN +5.86%), which had fallen into penny stock land not too long ago. It was even forced to plan a reverse stock split to regain compliance with exchange listing rules. At least, until the company brought in a new CEO who just so happened to talk about using AI to turn the house-flipping company's fortunes around.

Despite nothing at all having actually been changed at the company when he talked about using AI, the stock skyrocketed just on the incoming CEO's comments. That's the type of thing that happens when a bubble is in the euphoria stage.

The fourth stage of a bubble is the peak. It is hard to know when this comes along, but it sounds like what it is. Stock prices reach a point where investors start to question whether the good times can continue, and a few start to take profits. That is often, sometimes quickly, followed by the final stage of collapse. This is when the rest of the market follows the early money out the door, and stock prices plunge.

At this point, AI hasn't reached stages four and five, with stage four being more of a point in time than an actual lengthened period of time.

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Will Nvidia avoid the pain?
Nvidia is at the core of the AI revolution with its high-tech computer chips in high demand. They are the "brains" that power AI. AI will always need high-powered chips, so it may seem reasonable to think that Nvidia can weather the AI bubble popping. That's not likely.

The problem with bubbles is that investors get so excited that they are willing to buy just about anything and pay just about any price. Still, you could easily argue that Nvidia's valuation isn't outlandish right now, perhaps highlighting that the stock's price-to-earnings ratio is actually below its five-year average. That fact probably won't matter when the peak is reached and the bubble collapses. That's because in the collapse, investors will sell anything related to AI just to get out of the investment theme.

Greed pumps the bubble up and fear deflates it. But as is so often true on Wall Street, these emotions swing the pendulum to the extreme. And even good businesses lose massive amounts of value that can take decades to rebuild.

Take Cisco Systems (CSCO +0.27%) as an example. The dot.com bubble burst at the turn of the century. Some 25 years later, the stock still hasn't regained its peak valuation. Even if Nvidia avoids that outcome, it is highly unlikely it will be able to sidestep the AI collapse that will happen when the bubble finally deflates. In fact, given the increasing importance of AI-related stocks to the performance of the broader market, Wall Street will be lucky if it avoids a deep and painful bear market.

To put a number on that, Nvidia, Apple (AAPL 0.31%), and Microsoft (MSFT 1.51%) make up 21% of the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC). That's just three of the 500 or so stocks in the index, and they all have an AI component to them. Technology, meanwhile, accounts for nearly 35% of assets. If AI goes south, it is unlikely that Nvidia will avoid the pain, and it is highly likely that there will be a bear market, too.

There's no way to know when the bubble bursts
The big problem here is that there's no way to know when the AI bubble will burst. Bubbles have a habit of lasting longer than you believe possible. If you own Nvidia and have large profits in the stock, the best course of action may be to simply take some money off the table by selling a portion of your position. That way, you lock in some gains but still allow yourself the opportunity to participate if the stock keeps rising.

Just prepare yourself for the bubble bursting, which could come at any time and happen very, very quickly.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

The semiconductor bellwether's latest quarterly report points toward a bright future and the potential for more upside in the coming year.

ASML Holding (ASML 1.49%) is one of the most important companies in the global semiconductor supply chain. It makes the machines that help chipmakers and foundries print advanced chips that power several artificial intelligence (AI)-focused applications, ranging from data centers to smartphones to computers to cars, among other things.

The Dutch company has clocked respectable gains of 49% on the stock market in the past year, though it is worth noting that almost all of those gains have arrived in the past three months. ASML stock struggled for traction last year owing to various factors such as the ban on the sale of its machines to China, followed by the tariff-fueled trade war and the slower-than-expected recovery in certain semiconductor niches.

However, the stock has picked up impressive momentum of late thanks to its improving 2026 outlook. But will it be able to sustain this trajectory over the next year?

ASML is now confident of achieving growth in 2026
ASML stock took a big hit a year ago after the company's guidance for 2025 disappointed investors. The chip bellwether said its revenue for this year would land between 30 billion euros and 35 billion euros, which was the lower half of its original guidance range of 30 billion euros to 40 billion euros.

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Again, investors were spooked earlier this year when ASML said it couldn't "confirm" if it would report growth in 2026. Management's cautiousness was driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns, which can be attributed to tariff-related concerns. However, ASML changed its tone when it released its third-quarter results recently.

The company stated in its press release that it "does not expect 2026 total net sales to be below 2025." That's not surprising, as ASML has witnessed a nice pickup in the value of orders it received last quarter. Its net bookings, which refer to system sales orders for which the company has received written authorizations, came in at 5.4 billion euros last quarter. That was a major improvement over the year-ago period's bookings of 2.6 billion euros.

It is worth noting that two-thirds of ASML's bookings were for its extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems last quarter, coming in at 3.6 billion euros. That's a massive leap from the year-ago period, when ASML received 1.4 billion euros worth of orders for its EUV machines.

It is easy to see why the demand for the company's EUV systems has shot up remarkably. These machines enable chipmakers and foundries to manufacture advanced chips using small process nodes below 7 nanometers (nm). The chips that are being used in AI data centers, smartphones, and computers are all manufactured on process nodes measuring 3nm to 5nm in size.

That's the reason why foundry giant TSMC, which is one of ASML's customers, got 60% of its Q3 revenue from fabricating 3nm and 5nm chips for its customers. Another point worth noting is that 87% of TSMC's revenue last quarter came from selling chips for high-performance computing and smartphone applications.

The good part is that both of these markets are on track to grow nicely in 2026. Market research firm Gartner forecasts an increase of 51% in shipments of generative AI smartphones next year. Meanwhile, Citigroup is now expecting AI infrastructure capital spending by big tech companies to hit $490 billion in 2026, compared to its prior estimate of $420 billion.

That would be a big increase over 2025's estimated big tech capital expenditures of $364 billion. This heavy spending is going to be a tailwind for ASML as it is likely to receive more orders for advanced chipmaking equipment. In fact, TSMC pointed out on its latest earnings call that 70% of its $41 billion capital spending for 2025 will be directed at advanced process nodes.

As such, it won't be surprising to see ASML eventually upgrading its guidance for 2026 in the coming months.

Investors can expect the stock to head higher in the coming year
ASML's median 12-month price target is $1,140, as per 40 analysts who cover the stock. That points toward a potential jump of 7% from current levels. Consensus estimates are projecting an increase of just 5% in ASML's earnings in 2026, which would be a step down from its estimated 2025 earnings growth of 28%.

But then, investors should note that 17 analysts have raised their earnings expectations for 2026 in the past month. The company's improving order inflow and the solid spending that's expected on AI chips used in data centers and other devices next year should allow ASML to continue building its momentum and clock stronger growth than what analysts are expecting.

So, don't be surprised to see ASML exceeding its 12-month price target in the next year, which is why it would be a good idea to continue holding this AI stock in anticipation of more upside.

GM's EV sales could take a hit in Q4, but a cheap stock price and decent dividend should keep GM stock safe.

In case you hadn't heard, General Motors (GM +0.61%) had a fabulous third quarter.

Non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings came in well above expectations, and sales, while down 0.3% year over year, also topped forecasts from Wall Street analysts. GM scored $48.6 billion in total sales for the quarter, and then raised guidance for the rest of this year.

GM sold 710,000 vehicles in the U.S. in Q3 -- the best result of any automaker. Year to date, sales are up 20% year over year at 2.2 million vehicles. All things considered, "no one is in a stronger position for a changing U.S. market than GM," according to GM North American President Duncan Aldred.

And part of the reason for that is the Chevrolet Equinox electric SUV.

Introducing GM's most successful EV
Excluding only models from Tesla, GM's Chevy Equinox has become "the best-selling EV in the U.S.," says electric cars news site Electrek. The Equinox EV has real sales momentum, scoring more than 25,000 sales in Q3 alone -- nearly as many as it sold in Q1 and Q2 combined.

Partly, this was a function of EV shoppers rushing to place their orders before the federal government shut down its EV income tax credit at the end of the quarter. But it's also a function of the vehicle's quality. As Electrek points out, the Equinox EV boasts a 319-mile range fully charged (that's roughly equivalent to the range of Tesla's Model Y electric SUV), but has a starting MSRP under $35,000 -- $5,000 less than the cheapest Model Y available.

Even without much help from "incentives," says Electrek, the Equinox EV "has been GM's biggest hit," moving 25,085 units in Q3 alone, thanks largely to its average sales price beating those of most other top-selling EVs.

But for GM, this good news is about to turn into some bad news.

Taxes and credits and recalls (oh my!)
GM's most obvious problem with the Equinox is also one of the biggest reasons the SUV sold so well in Q3. The $7,500 government tax credit that encouraged car shoppers to bite the bullet and buy a new Equinox EV before the credit expired at the end of Q3... has now expired. Removing this government incentive is almost certain to diminish demand for the Equinox EV -- indeed, for all EVs -- in Q4 and beyond.

But it turns out Chevrolet has a second problem with the Equinox EV, above and beyond rebate quirks and U.S. tax law: Just last week, the U.S. National Highway Transport Safety Administration announced a recall on the Equinox EV.

In a notice dated Oct. 16, NHTSA announced the recall of 22,914 Cadillac Optic and Chevrolet Equinox EV vehicles from the 2025-2026 model years. (Also built by GM, but at the luxury Cadillac division, the electric Optic SUV is essentially an upgraded, premium version of the Equinox EV, sharing the same platform and the same battery technology.)

GM sold 4,886 Optiqs in Q3, by the way. Add these to the 25,085 Equinoxes sold in the quarter, then divide the total into the 22,914 Optiqs and Equinox EVs recalled... and effectively 76% of GM's Q3 sales of these two models just got recalled.

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What it means for General Motors stock
Now the good news is that this isn't necessarily GM's fault. According to NHTSA, it's recalling only Optiq and Equinox EVs "equipped with 21-inch Continental all-season tires," because "one or more of these tires may experience partial or full tread detachment." That makes it sound like this is a problem caused by the tires' manufacturer, Germany's Continental AG, and not by GM.

It also doesn't sound like a particularly difficult problem to fix, as NHTSA says all a car owner needs to do is bring the affected EV into a GM dealership to have the tires examined and replaced if necessary -- free of charge. So not much more complicated or time consuming than a tire rotation.

Still, getting tagged with a recall notice may take some wind out of GM's sales and depress sales of the Equinox temporarily -- at a time, right after the expiration of the government tax credits, when sales were already bound to be slow.

So what does this mean for GM, and for GM stock investors? Up until the recall announcement, analysts polled by S&P Global Market Intelligence were expecting GM to book $185.8 billion in sales this year, and earn $8.77 per share on those sales. A sharper-than-expected slowdown in EV sales on GM's most popular EV could blunt those numbers a bit.

All this said, with GM stock selling for less than 8 times earnings, expected to grow earnings 8.5% annually over the next five years, and paying a modest 0.9% dividend yield, the stock looks cheap to me. Even in the face of this recall announcement, I think it's probably safe to continue to own GM stock.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be taken as a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. Before buying or selling any stock, you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion or consult a financial advisor. Investing includes risks, including loss of principal.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

The company has a daring plan to produce critical metals from the seafloor, but it might not be worth the wait.

After jumping more than 50% in the first two weeks of October, shares of prospective deep-sea minerals company The Metals Company (TMC 0.70%) have tumbled 36.1% over the last two weeks:

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The stock is still up more than 500% this year. Is it likely to climb even higher, or will it continue to sink like a rock to the bottom of the ocean? Here's what investors need to know.

Poly what nodu-who?
The Metals Company is aptly named. It's focused on collecting, processing, and refining metals from the Pacific Ocean seafloor.

Specifically, The Metals Company is focused on "polymetallic nodules." Tons of these potato-sized rocks are just laying around on the Pacific Ocean seafloor. They may look unremarkable, but they're rich in the metals manganese, cobalt, nickel, and copper. While none of these metals are "rare earth" elements, they have plenty of industrial uses -- particularly in electric vehicle (EV) batteries.

The nodules are particularly prevalent in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ), which stretches from just south of Hawaii to just southeast of the Baja California peninsula on the west coast of Mexico. The Metals Company is proposing to collect, refine, and sell the metals from nodules in this area.

Waiting for the green light
You'll notice I said, "proposing to collect, refine, and sell." That's because The Metals Company hasn't actually launched any commercial operations yet.

The CCZ is located in international waters, and is regulated by the International Seabed Authority (ISA), a United Nations affiliate. Currently, The Metals Company has exploration contracts from the ISA for two areas of the CCZ, but it doesn't have any contracts to actually collect the nodules. Nor does it have any permits to build processing facilities for the nodules on land. In other words, the company is highly speculative, and it hasn't released any recent news that suggests it's anywhere near turning this idea into a viable business.

So why has its stock soared?

A Chinese counterweight
Remember, the four important metals in polymetallic nodules are copper, cobalt, nickel, and manganese. Copper, cobalt, and nickel are all considered critical metals by the U.S. and other major world economies. China is the world's leading producer of refined manganese, cobalt, and copper, and the second-largest producer of refined nickel after Indonesia.

So when China announced on Oct. 9 that it was tightening export controls on rare earth elements like neodymium -- a critical component in industrial magnets -- the world got spooked. Manufacturers that rely on Chinese metals, including big tech companies and defense contractors, became concerned about possible global supply chain disruptions. This caused stocks of mining companies to jump in anticipation of potential higher demand from non-Chinese sources.

The Metals Company saw a particularly big jump, likely due to speculation that competition with China would speed up the permitting process for a potential non-Chinese source of critical minerals. However, in the subsequent weeks, the White House has made conciliatory comments and expressed optimism about cutting a trade deal with China, and The Metals Company's stock has declined 36.1%.

Will the stock go higher?
There are reasons to believe that China's recent threats to withhold rare earth elements has made the world -- including U.S. and ISA regulators -- more sympathetic to approving new sources of critical metals.

The problem for The Metals Company is that even if it acquires all the necessary permits, it doesn't own a fleet of ships, seafloor excavation equipment, or processing facilities to smelt the various metal ores from those rocks. It currently has an agreement with contractor Allseas for use of a single ship through the end of 2026, and a similar agreement with Japanese smelter PAMCO to process nodules in exchange for 1.3 million tons of the first 3 million tons of nodules collected. But even The Metals Company estimates commercial production won't even begin until Q4 2027, and won't fully scale until 2043. That's a long time to wait to see if this investment will pay off.

So, no, unless the U.S.-China trade talks that are set to be held later this week go really badly, resulting in a sudden global shortage of a metal TMC does plan to mine (like copper or manganese), a rebound seems unlikely in the short term. And even if a short-term rebound happens, long-term success is far from guaranteed.

A seasonally potent earnings report along with a likely theatrical blockbuster and a new theme park attraction will keep Disney moving this month.

Walt Disney (DIS +0.77%) has a lot on its plate as we head into Thanksgiving later this month. The iconic media stock finds itself trading only marginally higher in 2025. It enters November negotiating with YouTube TV to gets ESPN, ABC, and other of media networks back on the live TV streaming service.

Unlike last year -- when Disney put out the year's three highest grossing films worldwide -- it has just one of the nine top draws in 2025. It's still the world's most prolific theme park operator, but its closest rival just reported a big jump for its gated attractions business last week on the strength of a new bar-raising destination.

Can a new Disney World experience, encouraging financial results, and a fresh theatrical release get it back on track? Let's take a closer look at some of the dates that Disney investors will want to circle in November.

Image source: Disney.

1. Nov. 7
Theme parks may stir up nostalgia, but they are never supposed to be time capsules. The experience needs to evolve to exceed rising price tags and expectations, and that brings us to the official opening of "Zootopia: Better Zoogether" at Disney's Animal Kingdom in Florida next weekend.

Based on Disney's popular Zootopia animated franchise, the animated 3D show has in-theater effects replicating confetti launches, stampedes, and spitting animals. It replaces "It's Tough To Be a Bug," one of the few remaining attractions from when Disney World's fourth theme park opened 27 years ago.

There are much bigger changes coming to Disney World's gated attractions in the years to come. However, as the world's most-visited theme park resort starts to gear up for the popular holiday season, it's always good to have something new for guests to experience.

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Zootopia-related events will serve as bookends this month. The meaty center in this sandwich will be Disney's fresh financial results. There's a lot riding on the fiscal fourth-quarter results that the House of Mouse will be reporting on the morning of Nov. 13.

Wall Street pros aren't holding out for much. Analysts are modeling $27.8 billion in revenue, a less than 1% year-over-year increase. The bottom-line outlook isn't better. The $1.03 a share profit that the market is expecting is a 10% decline. A silver lining here is that Disney has come through with double-digit percentage earnings beats in each of the three previous quarters.

What was holding Disney back this summer? It fared better on the theatrical front last year with Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine. On the theme park front, rival Comcast (CMCSA +1.88%) opened the Epic Universe theme park at its Universal Orlando resort in May -- minutes away from Disney World. Comcast announced financial results on Thursday, turning heads with a 19% increase in revenue for its theme parks business for the first full quarter for Epic Universe operations. Will those gains come at the expense of Disney World's tourist magnets or did an uptick in tourist counts benefit the leader?

There are also some big questions to answer with Disney's streaming business. Did Disney+ hold up under the threat of cancellations over the short-lived Jimmy Kimmel suspension? Are subscribers on board with the full-featured ESPN streaming service that launched in August? One thing that happened after the quarter came to a close was subscription prices going up again. Will Disney offer any color on potential churn following the Oct. 21 price hike?

Disney is a bellwether of entertainment stocks. In less than two weeks, its own earnings season appearance will be required reading or hearing for all industry investors.

3. Nov. 26
A weak year at the multiplex should get a boost in the final few weeks of the year. Zootopia 2 hits theaters on Thanksgiving Eve. Avatar: Fire and Ash will premiere in December, a lock to be the biggest film among this year's theatrical releases.

Zootopia 2 should draw well. The original animated feature came out in 2016, one of just four movies to top $1 billion in ticket sales worldwide that year. It's also probably worth mentioning that three of the four biggest movies of 2024 -- from any studio -- happened to be animated sequels. It's the right film at the right time to boost Disney in a year that hasn't gone right as often as investors would like.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

The gold (XAU) market continues to respond to shifts in the United States’ macroeconomic and policy environment. The price briefly dropped below the $4,000 per ounce mark but quickly recovered to close the week above that level. The decline from the record high of $4,380 appears to reflect profit-taking at year-end rather than a shift in fundamentals.

Broader economic signals continue to support the long-term bullish case for gold. These include trends in labour markets, consumer confidence, liquidity conditions, and geopolitical risks. This article examines recent market developments and their likely impact on gold prices.

Fed Cuts Rates but Signals Pause
The Federal Reserve reduced the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%. However, Chair Jerome Powell quickly dampened hopes of another cut in December. He stated, “A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion,” adding that there is “a growing chorus among officials to at least wait a cycle,” signalling a deliberate pause.

This cautious stance is not unwarranted. Labour market data indicate slowing momentum. It is found that the ADP’s new four-week average showed only 14,250 private-sector job gains as of October 11, 2025. At the same time, the Chicago Fed projects that the unemployment rate will rise to 4.35% in October, signalling a slow but steady deterioration in labour conditions. Slower job growth supports lower interest rates, which serve as a tailwind for gold.

However, Powell’s reluctance to promise more cuts undermines some of that support in the near term. The gold price continues to consolidate around $4,000 key level, following this shift in sentiment, as traders begin to reassess how far the Fed is willing to ease.

Confidence Falls While Inflation Expectations Increase
Consumer confidence metrics present a troubling outlook. The chart below shows that the Conference Board’s headline index dropped to 94.6 in October. This level is the lowest reading since the onset of the pandemic.

On the other hand, the expectations index dropped to 71.5. Historically, readings below 80 have preceded recessions. This index has remained below that threshold since February, indicating persistent pessimism about the economy’s trajectory.

Moreover, inflation expectations remain elevated. The chart below shows that the University of Michigan’s one-year and five-year inflation expectations held at 4.6% and 3.9%, respectively. This aligns with the University of Michigan’s earlier report and supports gold’s inflation-hedge narrative. When consumers expect higher inflation while also losing confidence in economic growth, gold prices tend to benefit.

These indicators suggest that despite short-term volatility in the gold market, the price is adjusting rather than reversing.

Liquidity Cracks Begin to Surface
The market liquidity metrics present a mixed picture. The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index dropped to -0.549, indicating loose financial conditions. This environment would support equities over gold. However, the deeper indicators show a different picture.

Chair Jerome Powell confirmed that the Federal Reserve will end its quantitative tightening program on December 1. The decision aims to ease growing pressure on liquidity. The drop in bank reserves has started to strain short-term funding markets. Over the past three years, the Fed has reduced its balance sheet by $2.4 trillion. However, the impact on liquidity is only now becoming visible.

The chart below shows that a $29 billion injection into the banking system last week signals mounting pressure.

The headline liquidity indicators suggest an easy environment, but the gold market is beginning to price in what lies beneath. The Fed’s urgent decision to end QT and inject $29 billion into the system reveals a liquidity fragility in the banking sector. This fragility is not yet visible in broad indexes but is reflected in the behaviour of central banks.

When central liquidity weakens and policy pivots begin to form behind the scenes, gold gains strategic appeal. Investors recognise that even with loose financial conditions on paper, the system is shifting toward intervention. This pre-emptive support signals deeper risk and reinforces gold’s role as a hedge against structural cracks, not just inflation or rate cuts.

Recession Risks Grow Across Key Economic Indicators
Economic growth is slowing beyond just the Fed and financial markets. The chart below shows that the Philadelphia Fed’s coincident economic activity index is approaching recessionary territory. Declines below 2.5% typically occur just before a recession begins. These signals indicate growing downside risks, given the weak labour growth and consumer sentiment.

On the other hand, recent developments in international trade have also contributed to short-term fluctuations in gold prices. A temporary agreement between the US and China led to reduced trade restrictions and improved commodity flows.

This included lower tariffs and delays in specific export controls. While the announcement helped ease market tensions, the limited scope and duration of the deal raised questions about its long-term impact. As a result, gold prices reacted to the initial optimism and the underlying uncertainty.

Some analysts suggest that the recent trade agreement provides short-term stability rather than a lasting solution. Ongoing uncertainties in global trade continue to weigh on market sentiment. In these environments, gold attracts increased interest as a safe-haven asset.

The easing of trade restrictions in the technology sector has provided short-term relief to the market. However, broader uncertainties persist regarding global supply chains and long-term competitiveness. In this environment of unresolved uncertainty, gold remains a preferred store of value.

Gold and Silver Price Patterns Signal Long-Term Breakout Potential
Gold Holds Ascending Channel as October Correction Finds Support
The gold chart below shows that the price has been trading within a long-term ascending channel since the first quarter of 2023. Gold held this structure for several months before breaking above the channel’s resistance in September 2025. It then reached the extension zone near the $4,400 level, peaking at $4,380 in October.

October is a seasonal period for corrections in gold, and the price pulled back sharply from this resistance zone. It declined toward the ascending channel support near the $3,890 level.

After hitting support, gold formed a candle wick, signalling strong buying interest around that zone. The consolidation in October suggests that gold is forming a bullish base between October and November. This could prepare the market for a strong rally into the new year.

As long as the price holds above the $3,700 region, the bullish structure remains intact. However, a breakdown below $3,700 may open the door for a deeper correction. The next support zone lies between $3,400 and $3,500, before the uptrend is likely to resume in the months ahead.

Gold-to-Silver Ratio Weakens: Silver Poised to Outperform
The gold-to-silver ratio chart shows a long-term upward trend within two ascending channels. The ratio dropped in 2020 during extreme volatility, and price action shifted into a steeper second channel.

The sharp corrections followed each spike toward the upper boundary. The latest peak near 105 was rejected at resistance, and now the ratio is falling back toward the lower boundary. This pattern suggests the recent move may form a bear flag, indicating a possible breakdown. If the ratio falls decisively below 75, it may signal that silver (XAG) is set to outperform gold in the coming cycle.

A falling gold-to-silver ratio usually favours silver over gold. It means silver prices may rise faster than gold, or gold may stall while silver catches up. Historically, these shifts occur during periods of reflation, industrial expansion, or increasing inflation hedges. If the ratio breaks the lower channel, targets could extend toward 64 or even 30 in the long run.

Silver Approaches Historic Breakout After Decades-Long Formation
The above discussion is also confirmed by the silver chart below. It shows a powerful long-term bullish setup, forming a massive cup-and-handle pattern that spans decades. The price is now testing the upper resistance zone near $50, which has capped major rallies since 1980 and 2011.

The rounded base and repeated retests of this resistance indicate substantial accumulation and structural strength. A confirmed breakout above the $50 level would mark a historic shift, potentially unlocking a rapid move toward much higher levels.

This breakout could mark the beginning of a multi-year silver bull run, based on the pattern formation. This move would likely be supported by rising industrial demand, inflation hedging, and silver’s growing strength relative to gold.

Bottom Line
Gold continues to reflect a balance between monetary caution and underlying economic fragility. The Fed’s measured policy stance, along with a slowing labour market and fading consumer confidence, signals a shift in the economic outlook. These factors suggest the U.S. economy is entering a period of soft growth and mild liquidity stress.

While short-term volatility persists, the end of QT and early signs of intervention in the banking system suggest that the Fed may soon lean toward a more accommodative stance. This environment strengthens gold’s long-term position as a hedge against policy uncertainty and weakening real yields.

At the same time, silver’s technical strength adds a new dimension to the precious metals outlook. The gold-to-silver ratio is trending lower, and silver’s decades-long cup-and-handle formation points to a potential historic breakout. If silver clears the $50 resistance zone in 2025, the metal could enter a multi-year bull cycle driven by industrial demand, inflation resilience, and its relative undervaluation.

Overall, gold and silver remain well-positioned for the next phase of the commodities uptrend. Gold offers stability and protection, while silver provides growth and performance. Therefore, a correction in both metals during October and November should be viewed as a buying opportunity for the next phase of growth.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

SummaryThe Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 2X Shares ETF aims to deliver twice the daily return of the S&P 500 Index.SPUU and other leveraged ETFs experience "drift" or decay, especially in volatile or sideways markets, eroding long-term returns.Historical data shows SPUU outperforms in bull markets but suffers significant capital erosion during choppy periods due to negative drift.SPUU is best suited for active traders and tactical strategies, not for long-term buy-and-hold investors. georgeclerk/iStock via Getty Images

Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 2X Shares ETF (SPUU) is a lesser known competitor of ProShares Ultra S&P500 (SSO): both aim to provide twice the daily return of the S&P 500 Index

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of TLT either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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According to macro analyst Jordi Visser, dormant bitcoin is moving again and new buyers are stepping in. Visser spoke on Anthony Pompliano’s podcast and wrote about the trend on Substack, saying old holders are slowly selling while fresh investors pick up coins on dips. He compared what’s happening to an IPO (initial public offering), where early backers cash out and ownership spreads to a wider group.

Price Action Has Been Flat And Frustrating
Bitcoin traded between $109,000+ and $110,500+ over the last seven days, a range that has left traders impatient. Reports show the Crypto Fear & Greed Index returned “fear” readings since Wednesday and averaged fear during the prior week. Yet every pullback has been met by buyers, which suggests accumulation is taking place even as sentiment reads poorly.

Network Signals Remain Strong
Visser pointed to several industry signals as evidence that this is not a collapse. ETF approvals keep arriving, the bitcoin network hashrate has hit new highs, and stablecoin activity is growing.

It was a busy week with many macro catalysts (Us-China, Fed, Mag7 earnings and Zelle/Stabledoins). Pomp and I go through it all and how the last two months look for assets. https://t.co/1mv6FCNYGF

— Jordi Visser (@jvisserlabs) November 1, 2025

Those facts are being cited by analysts who argue the market is redistributing holdings rather than unraveling. In other words, supply is moving from long-idle wallets into hands that buy on weakness.

What This Means For Volatility
Based on Visser’s view, the current phase could continue for some time. He estimates an IPO-like cycle can last about six to 18 months in traditional markets, and while bitcoin moves faster, the process may still stretch toward the six-month mark on his timeline.

When distribution finishes, one likely result is lower volatility, because ownership will be scattered across more participants instead of concentrated among early believers.

BTCUSD currently trading at $110,786. Chart: TradingView
No Loud Signal Expected To Mark The Shift
Reports have disclosed that the change may not start with a big breakout or collapse. Instead, the market could simply stop grinding and begin a clearer move as distribution completes.

That lack of a single trigger is frustrating for traders who want a clear sign, but it is familiar to anyone who has watched post-IPO stocks settle after lock-up expiries.

A Measured Take On The Market
Visser’s interpretation is cautious rather than bullish hype. He does not promise a rapid rally. He points to steady on-chain activity and institutional interest as the backbone supporting his thesis.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

Rebeca Moen
Nov 02, 2025 08:25

LTC price prediction points to $135-150 target by December 2025, with technical indicators showing bullish MACD momentum and positioning above key moving averages.

LTC Price Prediction Summary
• LTC short-term target (1 week): $106-110 (+5-9% from current levels)
• Litecoin medium-term forecast (1 month): $135-150 range (+34-49% upside potential)
• Key level to break for bullish continuation: $106.98 immediate resistance
• Critical support if bearish: $83.36 must hold to maintain uptrend

Recent Litecoin Price Predictions from Analysts
The recent wave of analyst predictions reveals a cautiously optimistic consensus for Litecoin's near-term prospects. Most short-term LTC price prediction models converge around the $99-102 range for early November, with Changelly targeting $100.85 and CoinCodex projecting $102.00 by October 30th.

However, the most compelling Litecoin forecast comes from Blockchain.News, which stands out with a significantly more bullish medium-term target of $135-150 within 4-6 weeks. This prediction carries high confidence and aligns with the current technical setup showing bullish MACD momentum and neutral RSI with upside potential.

The consensus among analysts suggests modest short-term gains, but the medium-term outlook presents substantial upside potential, with PricePredictions.com even projecting an ambitious LTC price target of $357.96 by November 2025, though this appears overly optimistic given current market conditions.

LTC Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Bullish Breakout
The Litecoin technical analysis reveals a compelling setup for continued upside momentum. At $101.00, LTC is trading near the upper Bollinger Band with a %B position of 0.92, indicating strong bullish pressure but approaching overbought territory in the short term.

The MACD histogram reading of 1.1891 confirms bullish momentum is building, while the RSI at 52.00 remains in neutral territory, providing room for further upside before reaching overbought conditions. Critically, Litecoin is trading above its 200-day SMA ($100.84), confirming the overall bullish trend remains intact.

The moving average configuration shows LTC above both the 7-day SMA ($97.96) and 20-day SMA ($95.57), though it remains below the 50-day SMA ($104.89). Breaking above the 50-day SMA would provide additional confirmation of the bullish thesis and open the path toward the $106.98 immediate resistance level.

Trading volume of $51.8 million on Binance provides adequate liquidity support for the current price action, though increased volume would strengthen conviction in any breakout move.

Litecoin Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish Case for LTC
The primary LTC price target in the bullish scenario targets the $135-150 range within 4-6 weeks, representing a 34-49% upside from current levels. This target is supported by several technical factors:

For the bullish case to unfold, LTC needs to break above the immediate resistance at $106.98, followed by a sustained move above the 50-day SMA at $104.89. The ultimate prize lies in challenging the strong resistance at $135.99, which sits just above the 52-week high of $130.91.

The path higher would likely involve intermediate stops at $110-115 and $125-130 before attempting the final push toward $150. Each level break would need confirmation through increased volume and sustained momentum.

Bearish Risk for Litecoin
The bearish scenario for this Litecoin forecast would trigger if LTC fails to hold the critical support at $83.36. A break below this level could accelerate selling toward the strong support at $52.71, representing a potential 48% decline from current prices.

Early warning signs of bearish reversal would include a break below the 200-day SMA at $100.84, followed by a decline through the 20-day SMA at $95.57. The lower Bollinger Band at $89.08 represents the first major support zone to monitor.

Risk factors include broader crypto market weakness, regulatory concerns, or failure to maintain the current bullish momentum as indicated by the MACD histogram.

Should You Buy LTC Now? Entry Strategy
Based on current technical conditions, the answer to buy or sell LTC leans toward a measured accumulation strategy. The optimal entry zone sits between $98-102, allowing investors to capitalize on any short-term pullbacks while maintaining exposure to the bullish breakout potential.

For risk management, a stop-loss below $95 would limit downside to approximately 6-8% while preserving capital for better entry opportunities. More aggressive traders might consider stops below the 200-day SMA at $100.84.

Position sizing should reflect the medium-term nature of this LTC price prediction, with a 2-4% portfolio allocation appropriate for most investors. The risk-reward ratio favors the bulls, with potential upside of 34-49% against downside risk of 15-20% to major support levels.

LTC Price Prediction Conclusion
This LTC price prediction carries medium-to-high confidence for the $135-150 target within 4-6 weeks, supported by bullish MACD momentum, neutral RSI with upside room, and positioning above key moving averages. The short-term path likely involves consolidation around current levels before the next leg higher.

Key indicators to monitor include the MACD maintaining bullish crossover, RSI staying below 70 to avoid overbought conditions, and volume confirmation on any breakout above $106.98. Failure to hold above the 200-day SMA at $100.84 would invalidate the bullish thesis.

The timeline for this Litecoin forecast suggests initial movement toward $110-115 within 1-2 weeks, followed by the push toward $135-150 by early December 2025. Investors should remain patient for pullbacks to the $98-102 zone for optimal entry opportunities.

Image source: Shutterstock

ltc price analysis
ltc price prediction

Cardano, one of the world's leading proof-of-stake (PoS) blockchains, is preparing for a major transformation that could redefine its network security and performance. The upcoming upgrade, called Ouroboros Phalanx, marks a critical step in Cardano's long-term roadmap, targeting one of the most complex challenges in decentralized systems—how to maintain fairness and randomness in validator selection while boosting efficiency.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has opined that incorruptibility is the blockchain's most important property.

The billionaire prodigy has once again amplified the ZKSync project on social media, which serves as the scaling solution for the Layer-1 network. ZK-rollups help to dramatically reduce gas fees and speed up transactions.

The ZKSync Atlas upgrade, which was launched earlier this October, makes it possible to process up to 30,000 transactions per second (TPS).

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Earlier, Buterin opined that ZKsync had been doing a lot of underrated and valuable work within the ecosystem.

Is Ethereum actually incorruptible?That said, JAN3 CEO Samson Mow, one of the most vocal Bitcoin enthusiasts, argues that the ship had already sailed with Ethereum Classic (ETC), the original chain that did not implement the DAO hard fork back in 2016 following the infamous hack.

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Some Bitcoin proponents also took issue with Ethereum's premine and the lack of a supply cap.

Other critics also took issue with the fact that the blockchain had ditched proof of stake.

One commentator has also noted that Ethereum heavily relies on Layer-2s, which makes it rather vulnerable. "Ethereum L1 is practically incorruptible. But L2s are not there yet. And since Ethereum’s long-term strategy relies on L2s, we cannot call Ethereum fully incorruptible until they mature," one commentator said.

Journalist

Posted: November 2, 2025

Key Takeaways
Why is Bitcoin steady near $110K even as leverage drops?
Because speculative bets are gone, but strong spot demand and rising stablecoin liquidity are holding prices firm.

Why does China’s $47 trillion money supply matter?
Because liquidity from China could fuel Bitcoin’s next major rally.

Bitcoin [BTC] looks like it’s slowing down, but there’s more.

Yes, price is cooling near $110K. But borrowing is going down, liquidity is piling up, and the flow of money around the world is shifting. If the next major capital wave doesn’t come from Wall Street, it may come from the East.

And that shift could define where BTC goes next.

Leverage has been cleared
Bitcoin’s flat price near $110K may have traders worried, but don’t be quick to judge!

Source: CryptoQuant

Since September, Open Interest across major Futures exchanges has dropped. This meant leverage had been flushed out without a major price breakdown.

Now this is important, as it shows that speculative excess has been removed, yet Spot demand has supported the price.

Source: CryptoQuant

On top of that, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) hovered near 1.0, confirming that traders sold near cost basis instead of panic levels. Market participants appear to be holding steady rather than chasing short-term profits.

Meanwhile, the total Stablecoin Supply rose to $158.8 billion, showing that sidelined liquidity is waiting for deployment.

And on that note…

China’s liquidity overtakes the U.S.
China’s M2 Money Supply has crossed $47 trillion, while the U.S. sat near $22 trillion – a $25T gap!

Source: Alphractal

This is a structural difference, and it didn’t happen overnight.

Since the GFC in 2009, China has leaned on aggressive credit expansion to keep growth and exports running. The U.S. slowed expansion after 2021, but China kept pushing liquidity into its system.

That divergence is now visible in the data and in markets.

So far, Bitcoin has trended closer to China’s liquidity curve than America’s. The bigger story here is that the gap has never reversed since 2009!

If liquidity is fuel, is the East set to rise?
Global markets still anchor every narrative to the Fed, but the charts show that China’s liquidity mattered just as much. Stocks and crypto have often reacted more to marginal liquidity from China.

Source: Alphractal

So if the next injection wave comes from Beijing instead of Washington, market leadership could shift. Crypto (especially BTC) is one of the most sensitive global liquidity barometers.

More money moving around in China could give markets a hidden boost. This is one that U.S. analysts aren’t really taking into account.

If capital rotates East, crypto could become one of the first markets to price it in!

Bitcoin price is capped by a massive supply zone between $110,000 and $112,500, stalling the breakout attempt.Whale accumulation is rising again, with the 30-day whale address count turning net positive for the first time since August 31.The bullish setup stays valid above $106,200, but a drop below $103,500 would invalidate the pattern and hand control to sellers.Bitcoin (BTC) started November quietly, holding steady near $110,350 after a flat 24 hours. The Bitcoin price chart still points to a possible reversal as the pattern remains intact — a structure that usually signals a major upward shift.

But despite that, BTC has failed to break out. On-chain data explains what’s keeping the move stuck and what could finally change it.

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Cost Basis Heatmap Shows Why the Breakout Is StuckBitcoin’s cost basis distribution heatmap — a chart showing where investors last bought their coins — highlights why BTC keeps struggling near current levels.

Between $110,000 and $112,500, there’s a heavy supply zone where about 434,000 BTC were last accumulated. These dense clusters often act as resistance, as many traders who bought at these levels look to sell when prices revisit their cost basis.

One Of The Three Key Supply Clusters (Orange Zones): GlassnodeWant more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

The heatmap helps identify where big pockets of holder activity are concentrated, showing which price levels act as support or resistance.

Another Key BTC Cluster: GlassnodeSponsored

This particular supply wall between $110,000 and $112,500 has been capping BTC’s rally attempts for a week. In the price chart — which we’ll come to later — the same level also aligns with an important technical marker, reinforcing the validity of this range.

Until Bitcoin closes firmly above $112,500, the reversal pattern remains valid but paused, waiting for a clear catalyst.

Whales Might Be Preparing to Change ThatWhales may be the ones bringing that catalyst. On-chain data indicates that large wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC are resuming accumulation.

The 30-day whale address count change has turned positive (+6) for the first time since August 31, suggesting accumulation has resumed after months of dormancy.

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Meanwhile, the total number of whale addresses dipped to a three-month low on October 27 but has been climbing since, now sitting around the same level last seen on October 3.

Bitcoin Whales Are Back In Action: GlassnodeThis increase shows renewed confidence from big players, a trend that often appears before price breakouts. The dashboard tracking these wallets also includes exchange, ETF, and custodian addresses, giving a broad view of institutional activity.

If this steady rise continues, it could help BTC absorb the selling pressure around $112,500, setting the stage for a potential breakout.

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BTC Price Chart: Bullish Setup, Waiting for a Trigger?Technically, Bitcoin still trades inside a clear inverse head and shoulders formation. A daily close above $116,400 would confirm the breakout, paving the way for targets at $122,000, $125,900, and $130,800.

Adding to this bullish setup, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) — a tool that measures buying and selling strength — shows a bullish divergence.

Between October 22 and October 30, Bitcoin’s price made lower lows while RSI made higher lows. This move often signals a trend reversal and the start of upward momentum.

Please note that on the BTC price chart, $112,590 is the key resistance level. This level validates the breakout-stalling theory pushed forth by the cost basis heatmap. For BTC, this $112,500-$112,590 zone might be the most crucial one in the near-term.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: TradingViewHowever, if Bitcoin breaks below $106,200, the breakout structure that remains intact may begin to lose shape. A further drop under $103,500 would invalidate the entire bullish pattern, confirming that sellers have regained full control.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.

Nov 02, 2025 at 09:48 // Price

XRP's price retraced and retested the 21-day SMA support level after the recent breakout. XRP price analysis by Coinidol.com.

XRP long-term analysis: bullish

On October 25, the bulls broke through the 21-day SMA barrier but were unable to keep the price above the 50-day SMA barrier. But XRP's price is expected to resume its upward trend after retesting and holding above the 21-day SMA support. On the upside, if the bulls break above the 50-day SMA, the bullish momentum will continue to the high of $3.20. Subsequently, XRP could rise further to a high of $3.64.

However, if buyers are unable to push the price above the 50-day SMA level, the crypto will remain constrained to a narrow range. XRP is currently valued at $2.52.

Technical indicators:  

Resistance Levels – $2.80 and $3.00

Support Levels – $1.80 and $1.60

XRP indicator analysis

Following a breach of the 21-day SMA, the cryptocurrency price bars remain between the moving average lines. The moving average lines have a downward slope, indicating a downtrend. On the 4-hour chart, the moving average lines show that XRP is continuing its sideways movement above the current support. The price bars are represented by Doji candlesticks, causing the altcoin to remain range-bound.

XRP/USD daily chart - November 1, 2025

What is the next direction for XRP?

The XRP price has remained sideways above the $2.20 level but below the resistance at $2.70. The cryptocurrency price has retested the moving average lines after dipping below them. Price movement has been limited by the dominance of Doji candlesticks. XRP's bullish trend will resume if buyers keep the price above the $2.70 barrier.

XRP/USD 4-hour chart - November 1, 2025

Disclaimer. This analysis and forecast are the personal opinions of the author. The data provided is collected by the author and is not sponsored by any company or token developer. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell cryptocurrency and should not be viewed as an endorsement by Coinidol.com. Readers should do their research before investing in funds. 

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Bitwise’s newly launched Solana ETF (BSOL) recorded $417 million in inflows during its first trading week.The surge highlights a growing institutional shift toward altcoins, even as Bitcoin funds experienced rare outflows.Analysts say the trend reflects investor confidence in Solana’s expanding role in stablecoin transfers and tokenized assets.Bitwise’s newly launched Staking Solana (BSOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) made a powerful market debut in its first trading week. The fund drew unprecedented investor interest and surpassed all other crypto ETFs globally in weekly inflows.

On November 1, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas reported that BSOL attracted roughly $417 million in its first week of trading. That performance placed the fund among the top 20 ETFs across all asset classes by net inflows.

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BSOL Draws Record Inflows but Solana Token Price SlipsFor context, BSOL’s inflows were nearly ten times larger than the NEOS Bitcoin High Income ETF (BTCI), which brought in $56.17 million. Grayscale’s Ethereum fund followed closely, securing $56 million.

What a week for $BSOL, besides the big volume, it led all crypto ETPs by a country mile in weekly flows with +$417m ($IBIT had a rare off week, it'll be back). It also ranked it 16th in overall flows for the week. Big time debut. pic.twitter.com/HpKUTdq1J5

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) November 1, 2025
In contrast, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) — typically the market leader in weekly inflows — faced a rare setback. The fund ended the week with approximately $254 million in outflows, according to data from SosoValue.

The fund’s early success highlights how institutional investors are expanding their exposure beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, seeking regulated access to Solana’s high-performance ecosystem.

Analysts interpret this as a sign of pent-up demand after more than a year of market anticipation for an altcoin-focused ETF.

However, the surge in fund inflows did not translate into immediate price gains for Solana.

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Data from BeInCrypto shows that SOL has fallen by more than 3% over the past week, currently trading at $186.92.

The muted reaction suggests that capital inflows into BSOL may have come from asset rotations — investors reallocating funds from other ETFs rather than injecting fresh capital into Solana itself.

Despite the short-term pullback, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan remains confident in Solana’s trajectory.

He argues that investing in Solana is a bet on the blockchain’s expanding role in powering stablecoin transfers and tokenized assets. This growth, he adds, is driven by Solana’s high-speed infrastructure and its active developer community.

“If I’m right, the combination of a growing market and a growing share of that market will be explosive for Solana,” Hougan concluded.

Indeed, Solana’s on-chain metrics support these strong network fundamentals.

According to Token Terminal, applications built on Solana now host over $40 billion in user assets.

Total Value of Assets on Solana. Source: Token TerminalThe token currently trades at roughly 3.2 times its ecosystem’s total value locked, signaling that long-term fundamentals may be catching up to investor sentiment.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.

The crypto economy closed the last week of October with significant volatility, marked by price swings and liquidations. Bitcoin epitomized this trend, with its weekly price range exceeding $10,000.

XRP Tundra runs on two ledgers — the XRP Ledger (XRPL) for governance and reserves, and Solana for high-throughput execution. To keep both environments in sync, the project integrates Chainlink oracles as the data backbone for price inputs, emissions records, and validator metrics. Oracle delivery to both chains removes manual coordination and keeps staking and governance logic aligned in real-time.

The new oracle layer defines how information moves through Tundra’s dual-token architecture, ensuring that every update, calculation, and reward event references identical verified data on each ledger. It also prepares the infrastructure for Cryo Vault staking and the GlacierChain Layer-2 expansion, where the same feed system will extend to automated reporting and compliance validation across Ripple’s growing DeFi ecosystem.

Chainlink Across Two Ledgers: Single Source, Dual Delivery
Tundra routes identical oracle updates to Solana programs and XRPL smart contracts. Chainlink nodes sign and broadcast data packets that include a timestamp, source set, and aggregation result. On Solana, Cryo Vault and liquidity programs consume the feed for reward math and emission schedules. On XRPL, TUNDRA-X governance contracts store the same packet hash to create a mirrored record.

When a new data point arrives — such as a time-weighted reference price — the Solana side applies it to staking accruals while XRPL records the hash and block height. If either side detects a mismatch (hash or sequence), updates pause until the next consistent packet arrives. That symmetry ensures the two ledgers hold the same facts before any state change proceeds.

Data Flow for Price, Emissions, and Validator Metrics
Three categories of inputs run through Chainlink:

Price references. Reward calculations and threshold checks use oracle-based reference prices to prevent stale or manipulable inputs. The system uses moving-window aggregation to dampen short-term volatility.

Emission checkpoints. Each distribution window references a Chainlink-signed packet that includes the period ID and a digest of accrued rewards. XRPL keeps the digest; Solana executes the distribution. Either ledger can prove the distribution matched the signed parameters by checking the same hash.

Validator and uptime metrics. Governance on XRPL receives periodic summaries of validator performance and relay heartbeat data. These metrics do not grant operational control; they provide a signed, reproducible record that proposals and rotations can reference.

In practice: Solana calculates, XRPL attests, and Chainlink guarantees both sides saw the same data.

Oracle Security Controls and Published Audits
Controls follow a “verify-then-act” pattern. Contracts only accept updates from allow-listed Chainlink node addresses; packets must pass signature, timestamp, and sequence checks. Old or out-of-order packets are rejected. Distribution contracts fail closed if any on-chain check does not reconcile with the latest stored digest.

Independent audits confirm the plumbing:

Cyberscope reviewed Solana-side calls and verified that oracle consumers enforce signature allow-lists and sequence monotonicity.
Solidproof examined XRPL storage and confirmed packet hashing, timestamp windows, and halt conditions on inconsistency.
FreshCoins simulated update races and verified that failed reconciliations do not release emissions.

These findings show the oracle layer is non-custodial and deterministic: Chainlink supplies data; ledgers validate; state changes occur only after both confirmations exist on-chain.

For an accessible overview of oracle-driven DeFi design, HotCuppaCrypto breaks down how signed data governs rewards and risk controls in modern protocols.

Effects on Cryo Vault Staking and Rewards
Cryo Vaults — Tundra’s XRP staking mechanism — use Chainlink inputs to anchor reward math. Target yields (up to 20% APY at launch) rely on oracle-verified periods and reference prices to prevent gaming. When a period closes, Solana computes distributions; XRPL stores the matching digest; funds move only when the digest on both ledgers matches the signed packet.

This structure supports predictable accruals and verifiable payouts:

Predictable timing: distribution windows are defined on-chain and tied to oracle sequence numbers.
Verifiable math: anyone can recompute accruals using the same packet values and compare against Solana’s ledger.
Fail-safe halts: if a packet is missing or stale, rewards do not advance until a valid update arrives.

The result is a staking system that treats data as a shared source of truth instead of a local estimate.

Presale Progress and the Road Ahead
The Phase 9 presale fixes TUNDRA-S at $0.147 with an 11% bonus and uses a $0.0735 reference for TUNDRA-X. The oracle layer underpins both emissions and governance from launch.

Next, GlacierChain — an XRPL Layer-2 coordination module — will consume the same Chainlink packets for automated reporting and proposal checks. With identical data feeding both base layers and Layer-2, proposals can include deterministic assertions (“this emission equals packet n”) and produce audit-ready logs without manual reconciliation.

The completion of Phase 9 will finalize the infrastructure funding required for Cryo Vault activation, ensuring that staking, governance, and Layer-2 automation all launch on a fully synchronized, oracle-verified foundation.

Review how Chainlink’s signed data powers Tundra’s staking and governance:

Check Tundra Now: official XRP Tundra website

How to Grab Tundra: step-by-step guide

Security and Trust: audits — Solidproof audit

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Robert Kiyosaki warns of a “massive crash,” yet Bitcoin holds $110K support. Is this fear-driven caution a setup for BTC's next big move?

Shares of the quantum computing specialist have sold off recently.

Quantum computing stocks have been on a wild ride over the past few weeks, with several days resulting in large gains and losses. One of the most watched stocks in this realm is IonQ (IONQ +3.67%), as it is one of the pure-play quantum computing leaders. Its stock is up about 50% year to date, although that figure was as high as nearly 100% a few weeks ago.

With IonQ's stock sitting well off its all-time high, is it time to buy the dip? After all, if IonQ's technology works out, it could be a massive winner.

Image source: Getty Images.

IonQ's technology gives it a leg up on the competition
There are several ways to approach quantum computing. The most popular technique is to cool a particle to near absolute zero, which slows down the movements enough to utilize its quantum mechanics to perform quantum computing with it.

IonQ doesn't use this technique; instead, it uses the trapped ion approach, which can be done at room temperature. As another benefit, this technique is inherently more accurate than the aforementioned superconducting method. This isn't a free lunch. While IonQ is a leader in accuracy, it sacrifices processing speeds to achieve better accuracy.

However, accuracy is the biggest problem every company in the quantum computing arms race is trying to solve. If IonQ can create an accurate and cheap solution faster than anyone else, it may be able to establish a first-mover advantage where its products become the standard. An advantage like that cannot be understated, and may be enough to push IonQ to victory over its peers.

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There's no guarantee that this pans out, as IonQ is going up against some stiff competition. In addition to other quantum computing pure-play companies, there are also legacy tech players like Alphabet, with which IonQ has to compete. Alphabet has enough cash flow to be able to invest in whatever it pleases, and could easily outspend IonQ to reach quantum computing supremacy first.

On the flip side, Alphabet's stock doesn't have as much upside as quantum computing pure plays do due to its size. Quantum computing will be a nice business builder for Alphabet, but it's the only thing that matters for IonQ. Time will tell if IonQ can succeed in this race, but IonQ is still leading the pack in terms of computing accuracy.

IonQ just set another world record
Because IonQ is the current accuracy leader, it should come as no surprise that it is consistently setting world records for the most accurate quantum computer. Recently, it announced that it had achieved 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity performance, which is the most common measure of accuracy for a quantum computer. This means that the device made one error in 10,000 attempts.

IonQ believes it has now achieved the level of performance necessary to produce a computer with one million qubits that can deliver commercially viable results by 2030. This is a big deal and shows that IonQ is a leader in this race. But is it enough to buy the stock?

It's impossible to estimate what the real value of quantum computing will be years down the road. While 2030 is commonly pointed to as a turning point for the technology, it could be years after that before we see widespread adoption and mass replacement of traditional computing devices. Furthermore, the advantage of these computers may be overstated right now, and this market may never emerge.

Additionally, just because IonQ is leading right now doesn't mean it will maintain that position over the next five years. A roadblock could come up or someone else could have a groundbreaking discovery, and bump IonQ from atop its quantum computing throne.

This makes IonQ a high-risk, high-reward investment as it could easily go to $0 if it doesn't win the quantum computing arms race. There's still a lot of time between now and when quantum computing will become commercially viable. A significant market downturn could occur over that time frame, opening up a better buying opportunity for IonQ. I think investors can be patient, as there is still a ton of hype baked into quantum computing stock prices right now, and there will likely be better opportunities that emerge over the next few years.

Gold is crushing the S&P 500 stock market index this year, but that certainly isn't typical.

Warren Buffett built the Berkshire Hathaway holding company into a trillion-dollar conglomerate, catapulting his personal net worth to $145 billion. Ray Dalio, on the other hand, founded one of the world's most successful hedge funds, Bridgewater Associates, and he retired in 2022 with a net worth of over $15 billion.

In other words, they became two of the world's richest people thanks to their knack for picking winning investments. However, they have entirely opposite views on one of the best-performing assets this year: Gold.

The shiny yellow metal has soared by 48% in 2025, obliterating the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) stock market index, which is up 17%. Dalio thinks it's a must-have asset for investors, whereas Buffett has deliberately avoided it. Who's right?

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Warren Buffett calls gold an "unproductive" asset
Buffett oversees a number of wholly owned subsidiaries at Berkshire, in addition to a $312 billion portfolio of publicly traded stocks and securities. He likes to invest in companies with steady growth, strong earnings, and experienced management teams, but he especially favors those that regularly pay dividends and engage in stock buybacks, because they compound his returns much faster.

That's part of the reason he dislikes gold. In his 2011 letter to Berkshire's shareholders, he explicitly referred to it as an unproductive asset and highlighted two of its main shortcomings:

Gold isn't very useful. It's a staple in the jewelry industry, and it has some applications in the semiconductor space because of its high electrical conductivity, but neither of those sources of demand is strong enough to soak up the new supply pulled out of the ground each year.
Gold isn't procreative. An investor who buys one ounce of gold today will still have exactly one ounce of gold in a century from now, because it doesn't produce revenue or earnings. It doesn't rise in value in isolation; it only rises in value relative to depreciating fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar (more on this later).

In his 2011 letter, Buffett went on to compare the value of gold to various assets investors could buy instead. Following that line of thought, the total value of all above-ground physical gold is currently around $28 trillion, and for the same price, you could acquire the world's three largest companies (Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple), more than twice over.

Those companies produce goods that add real value to the world, and their shareholders reap the benefits in the form of capital growth and cash flow from dividends. Over the last 10 years, the results speak for themselves:

NVDA data by YCharts

Ray Dalio thinks investors should own gold
Dalio is a student of history, so he is very concerned about the potential consequences of reckless government spending in the U.S. and the soaring national debt.

Like many countries around the world, the U.S. used to peg the value of its domestic currency to gold. This was called the gold standard, and it prevented governments from printing money out of thin air, because every dollar had to be backed by physical gold reserves.

However, the U.S. abandoned the gold standard in 1971, and five decades later, the national debt just crossed $38 trillion for the first time ever. The government ran an eye-popping budget deficit of $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2025 (ended Sept. 30), so it's spending significantly more than it's receiving in tax receipts.

Dalio likens the current situation to the 1970s, when soaring inflation, spending, and debt eroded confidence in paper currency. He isn't surprised investors are flocking to gold right now because, unlike Buffett, he doesn't see it as just a metal -- he sees it as the most established form of money. It's hard to argue with that position because gold has been considered a store of value for thousands of years.

Investors are speculating that devaluing the dollar by significantly increasing the money supply is the only way the U.S. will be able to pay down its debt. The chart below shows a crystal-clear correlation between the growing money supply and the value of gold relative to the U.S. dollar.

As a result, while speaking at the Greenwich Economic Forum in October, Dalio said investors should consider parking up to 15% of their portfolios in gold. Of course, buying piles of physical gold isn't practical for most people, but exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like the iShares Gold Trust (GLD 0.54%) are a great alternative.

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What should investors do?
The answer is probably somewhere in the middle. Gold's 48% year-to-date rally in 2025 certainly isn't typical, because it has generated a compound annual return of 7.96% over the last 30 years. From that perspective, it's an inferior investment to the S&P 500, which returned 10.6% per year over the same period. One point for Buffett.

However, if America fails to get its fiscal house in order and it evolves into a full-blown economic crisis, the stock market probably won't be the best place to invest (at least temporarily). In that scenario, gold would probably experience significant inflows, so investors might be thankful they followed Dalio's advice and parked some of their assets in the yellow metal.

Perhaps a portfolio allocation of 15% is a little high since many financial advisors recommend somewhere between 5% and 10%, but it could certainly pay to own some gold. Think of it like holding an insurance policy.