Market Signal Briefing

Tesla remained a strong contender in Beijing's competitive electric vehicle scene, as the company's China-produced EV sales grew modestly in January from the year before, amid a broader industry slowdown.

According to data published by the China Passenger Car Association on Wednesday, January deliveries from Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory rose by 9% to 69,129 units, from 63,238 in January 2025.

The latest January deliveries places Tesla in third place against other Chinese EV manufacturers. BYD was in the lead at 205,518 shipments, while Geely came in second with 124,252 units, according to the CPCA.

Despite the rise in deliveries, there is little indication of an actual growth in demand for Tesla's offerings in China — the world's largest EV market.

The company's January delivery figures reflect the total number of shipments from Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory, which produces the Model 3 and Model Y for domestic and foreign markets in Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and elsewhere.

New registrations in January for Tesla passenger vehicles — a proxy for sales — rose slightly in Europe, according to Reuters.

Domestic price warTesla has faced stiff competition from a number of Chinese EV brands with more affordable offerings. In a separate report, the CPCA noted that the total sales of Tesla's China-produced EVs fell by 4.8% in 2025 — one of only two manufacturers in Beijing that reported declining annual sales from the year before.

At around 235,500 yuan ($33,943), Tesla's base Model 3 sedan costs nearly three times the price of the base model for BYD's Seal, at around 79,800 yuan.

Like other automakers, Tesla has sought to maintain its competitiveness in China through aggressive price cuts. According to its Chinese website, Tesla has begun offering five-year 0% interest loans, or seven-year "ultra-low" interest rate loans for orders placed before Feb. 28.

"We have [had] really intense price wars that have gone on, although the government and industry have called on automakers to not engage with aggressive pricing strategies," Abbie Tu, principal research analyst from S&P Global Mobility, tells CNBC.

Despite these involutive price wars, China's EV market has slowed considerably.

According to CPCA data, new energy vehicle sales, which include hybrid and battery-powered cars, grew by only 1% year on year in January - a fourth-straight month of slowing growth.

The slowdown is projected to continue, as Beijing has slashed support for new EV sales. From Jan. 1, a 5% tax on new energy vehicle purchases was reinstated, after previously being exempted from the full 10% tax for more than a decade. New energy vehicles include battery and hybrid-powered cars.

New regulationsTesla's challenges are further compounded by a recent announcement from Beijing which will effectively ban concealed door handles.

On Monday, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that from Jan. 1, 2027, all door handles on cars sold in the country must have interior and exterior mechanical releases.

The announcement follows a spate of high-profile incidents in the U.S. and China, where EV occupants involved in road accidents could not be freed after their vehicles caught fire, as a result of power failures in the door-locking mechanisms.

While automakers in China have a decent runway to ensure compliance with the new regulations, it remains to be seen how Tesla will adapt, given that flush door handles were first popularized as a signature design feature on Tesla's minimalist vehicles.

Some analysts, like Tu Le, founder and managing director of consulting firm Sino Auto Insights, see China's new car door handle restrictions as likely to pose a "decent sized headache" for Tesla.

However, Tu said, China's new regulations will likely have little impact on most automakers.

"I think for lots of Chinese brands, this new regulation [will not] take them by surprise, because when regulators were drafting the new regulations, they consulted OEMs and industry experts intensively," Tu says.

CNBC's Evelyn Cheng contributed to this report.

Digital Realty Trust, Inc. (DLR) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Q4: 2026-02-05 Earnings SummaryEPS of $0.71 beats by $0.06

 |

Revenue of

$628.48M

(36.21% Y/Y)

beats by $80.54M

TPG Inc. (TPG) Q4 2025 Earnings Call February 5, 2026 12:00 PM EST

Company Participants

Gary Stein - Head of Investor Relations
Jon Winkelried - CEO & Director
Jack Weingart - Chief Financial Officer
James Coulter - Founder & Executive Chairman
Nehal Raj

Conference Call Participants

Glenn Schorr - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities, Research Division
Benjamin Budish - Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division
Kenneth Worthington - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division
Alexander Blostein - Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division
Craig Siegenthaler - BofA Securities, Research Division
Michael Brown - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division
Brennan Hawken - BMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Arnaud Giblat - BNP Paribas, Research Division
Brian Bedell - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division
Michael Cyprys - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Presentation

Operator

Good afternoon, and welcome to the TPG's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call.

[Operator Instructions]

Please be advised that today's call is being recorded. Please go to TPG's IR website to obtain the earnings materials.

I will now turn the call over to Gary Stein, Head of Investor Relations at TPG. Thank you. You may begin.

Gary Stein
Head of Investor Relations

Great. Thanks, operator, and welcome, everyone. Joining me today are Jon Winkelried, Chief Executive Officer; and Jack Weingart, Chief Financial Officer. In addition, our Executive Chairman and Co-Founder, Jim Coulter and our President, Todd Sisitsky, are here with us for the Q&A portion of this call. Nehal Raj is also joining us today for the Q&A session, given his role leading the Software Sector at TPG and as Co-Managing Partner of TPG Capital.

I'd like to remind you this call may include forward-looking statements that do not guarantee future events or performance. Please refer to TPG's earnings release and SEC filings for factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements. TPG undertakes no obligation to revise

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, /PRNewswire/ -- Robbins LLP reminds stockholders that a class action was filed on behalf of all investors who purchased or otherwise acquired Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) common stock between June 12, 2025 and December 16, 2025. Oracle is a technology company that provides, among other things, infrastructure for operating artificial intelligence ("AI") programs.

For more information, submit a form, email attorney Aaron Dumas, Jr., or give us a call at (800) 350-6003.

The Allegations: Robbins LLP is Investigating Allegations that Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Misled Investors Regarding its Data Center Capabilities for AI Infrastructure

According to the complaint, during the class period, defendants touted its contracts to develop data center capabilities for AI infrastructure and falsely assured investors that the Company's significant capital expenditures ("CapEx") would quickly result in accelerated revenue growth. The Company simultaneously failed to disclose that its AI infrastructure strategy would result in massive increases in CapEx without equivalent, near-term growth in revenue, and that the Company's substantially increased spending created serious risks involving Oracle's debt and credit rating, free cash flow, and ability to fund its projects, among other concerns.

Plaintiff alleges a series of disclosures between September 2025 and December 2025 that caused Oracle's stock declined significantly. Finally, on December 17, 2025, Financial Times reported that Blue Owl Capital—"the primary [financial] backer for Oracle's largest data center projects in the US"—had backed out of funding a $10 billion Oracle data center intended to serve OpenAI. According to the report, Blue Owl pulled out of the deal as a result of concerns about Oracle's spending commitments and rising debt levels. On this news, the price of Oracle common stock declined $10.19 per share, or approximately 5.4%, from a close of $188.65 per share on December 16, 2025, to close at $178.46 per share on December 17, 2025.

What Now: You may be eligible to participate in the class action against Oracle Corporation. Shareholders who wish to serve as lead plaintiff for the class should contact Robbins LLP. The lead plaintiff is a representative party who acts on behalf of other class members in directing the litigation. You do not have to participate in the case to be eligible for a recovery. If you choose to take no action, you can remain an absent class member. For more information, click here.

All representation is on a contingency fee basis. Shareholders pay no fees or expenses. 

About Robbins LLP: A recognized leader in shareholder rights litigation, the attorneys and staff of Robbins LLP have been dedicated to helping shareholders recover losses, improve corporate governance structures, and hold company executives accountable for their wrongdoing since 2002. 

To be notified if a class action against Oracle Corporation settles or to receive free alerts when corporate executives engage in wrongdoing, sign up for Stock Watch today.

Attorney Advertising. Past results do not guarantee a similar outcome.

SOURCE Robbins LLP

Q2: 2026-02-05 Earnings SummaryEPS of $1.13 beats by $0.10

 |

Revenue of

$1.33B

(-0.58% Y/Y)

beats by $39.33M

Open Text Corporation (OTEX) Q2 2026 Earnings Call February 5, 2026 5:00 PM EST

Company Participants

Greg Secord - Vice-President of Investor Relations
Christopher McGourlay - Interim Chief Executive Officer
Steve Rai - Executive VP & CFO
Paul Jenkins - Executive Chair & Chief Strategy Officer

Conference Call Participants

Richard Tse - National Bank Financial, Inc., Research Division
Raimo Lenschow - Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division
Kevin Krishnaratne - Scotiabank Global Banking and Markets, Research Division
Stephanie Price - CIBC Capital Markets, Research Division
Thanos Moschopoulos - BMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Paul Treiber - RBC Capital Markets, Research Division
George Michael Kurosawa - Citigroup Inc., Research Division
David Kwan - TD Cowen, Research Division
Seth Gilbert - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Presentation

Operator

Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the OpenText Corporation Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] The conference is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Greg Secord, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Greg Secord
Vice-President of Investor Relations

Thank you, operator, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to OpenText's Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Call. With me on the call today are OpenText's Executive Chair and Chief Strategy Officer, Tom Jenkins; together with James McGourlay, our Interim Chief Executive Officer; and Steve Rai, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

Today's call is being webcast live and recorded with a replay available shortly thereafter. Just look on the OpenText Investor Relations website at investors.opentext.com. Earlier today, we posted our press release and investor presentation online. These materials will supplement our prepared remarks and can also be accessed on the OpenText Investor Relations website.

Now turning to some upcoming investor events. OpenText will be participating in the Scotiabank Technology Media Telecommunications Conference in Toronto. It's on March 4. We look

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SPGI either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Item 1 of 2 The New York Stock Exchange with a Hims & Hers Health, Inc banner is pictured as a person runs past in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., January 21, 2021. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri

[1/2]The New York Stock Exchange with a Hims & Hers Health, Inc banner is pictured as a person runs past in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., January 21, 2021. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

SummaryCompaniesHims & Hers shares surged 14% on news of cheap pill but ended 4% lower$49 price is for first month, will cost $99 afterwards for those who purchase a five-month planHims & Hers shares have been highly volatile, attracted short-sellersNEW YORK, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Hims & Hers (HIMS.N), opens new tab sent a shockwave through the pharmaceutical industry on Thursday with its announcement of a weight-loss pill with a $49-a-month introductory price. Its shares ended down anyway.

That pattern is nothing new for investors in the compounding company, an upstart competitor to established drugmakers that became a momentum-stock darling before entering into a downtrend that has seen it shed 60% of its value since mid-October.

Keep up with the latest medical breakthroughs and healthcare trends with the Reuters Health Rounds newsletter. Sign up here.

Hims announced plans to offer a discounted compounded version of Novo Nordisk's (NOVOb.CO), opens new tab Wegovy weight-loss pill, which has itself been losing ground to Eli Lilly's (LLY.N), opens new tab offerings in the thriving market for weight-loss drugs. Hims shares rallied sharply before a pullback that turned into a selloff once Novo threatened legal action.

"Wall Street's reaction is often based on perception, and the (initial) perception is, $49 is a lot cheaper than what they can get elsewhere," said Rajiv Leventhal, senior analyst, digital health at eMarketer.

But he noted $49 is for the first month, and it would cost $99 afterwards for those who purchase a five-month plan.

The stock surged 14% at the open of trading but ended down 4%. Shares fell a further 4% in after-hours trading after U.S. Food and Drug Administration head Marty Makary said on X that his agency would take "swift action against companies mass-marketing illegal copycat drugs, claiming they are similar to FDA-approved products."

He did not name any drugs.

Hims & Hers Health shares have been volatile, and are currently in a downward spiral.VOLATILE STOCKFor investors with a strong stomach - or no interest in watching the market - hanging onto Hims stock has paid off, as it has nearly tripled over the past two years. But that stretch includes whiplash-inducing moves like its 170% surge in January 2025 that was followed by a 63% selloff - and then another 145% rally.

Roughly 69 million shares of Hims traded on Thursday, its busiest day since October.

"It is a bit disappointing that the stock really couldn't rally on good news; that's usually not a good sign," said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers in Greenwich, Conn.

Its ups and downs have made it a favorite of short-sellers. While institutions BlackRock, Vanguard, and JP Morgan Asset Management are among the largest holders, nearly one-third of the shares have been loaned out for short bets, according to LSEG data. By contrast, less than 1% of Eli Lilly's stock is being borrowed for short bets.

Those institutions did not respond to requests for comment. The stock went through a notably volatile period over the summer after it entered into a partnership with Novo that the Danish drugmaker ended only a few months later.

“This stock has gotten hammered - it’s done nothing but go down,” said Paul Cerro, founder and chief investment officer at hedge fund Cedar Grove Capital, who used to short the stock but no longer has a position.

Since the summer, daily trading volume has declined sharply, so a busy day like Thursday was an opportunity for fund managers to sell, Cerro said. "The longs found the liquidity to get out of that position."

Options market data shows investors expect more volatility. The stock's 30-day implied volatility hit a three-month peak on Thursday, according to Trade Alert, and pricing indicates traders anticipate a potential 20% move in either direction by next week's close. That would mark the largest weekly swing since June, according to LSEG data.

Novo and Hims have been tussling since 2023, when Hims was allowed by the FDA to sell versions of Novo's GLP-1 injectable drugs while the branded medicines were in short supply.

To Sosnick, Thursday's fizzle shows the mo-mo crowd's love affair with the stock is over.

"It was a big favorite of momentum traders on the way up, and like so many of these stocks, it's much less popular on the way down," he said.

Reporting by David Gaffen; Additional reporting by Saqib Ahmed; Editing by Jamie Freed

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

David Gaffen has been with Reuters since 2009. As of 2023 he serves as the breaking news editor for companies news, overseeing breaking events around the largest North American companies. He also writes the Power Up energy newsletter that goes out to subscribers by email on Mondays and Thursdays. In 2015 he was nominated with a team of reporters for a Daniel Loeb award for the series "The Cannibalized Company" about share buybacks; he was part of a team that won a Reuters journalism award for energy coverage in 2021. David previously worked at The Wall Street Journal and TheStreet.com.

By Reuters

February 6, 20265:11 AM UTCUpdated 18 mins ago

Item 1 of 2 The Toyota logo is shown on a Land Cruiser vehicle at the LA Auto show "AutoMobility LA" in Los Angeles, California, U.S. November 20, 2025. REUTERS/Mike Blake

[1/2]The Toyota logo is shown on a Land Cruiser vehicle at the LA Auto show "AutoMobility LA" in Los Angeles, California, U.S. November 20, 2025. REUTERS/Mike Blake Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

CompaniesFeb 6 (Reuters) - Toyota Motor (7203.T), opens new tab raised its full-year operating profit forecast on Friday, as it expects a weak yen and cost reduction efforts to lift its results.

The world's biggest automaker now expects operating profit of 3.8 trillion yen ($24.26 billion) for the year to the end of March, up 11.8% from its previous outlook of 3.4 trillion yen.

Stay up to date with the latest news, trends and innovations that are driving the global automotive industry with the Reuters Auto File newsletter. Sign up here.

($1 = 156.6300 yen)

Reporting by Daniel Leussink; Editing by Christopher Cushing

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

Qualys, Inc. (QLYS) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Musk is expecting a lot of growth in Tesla's robotaxi business this year.

Tesla (TSLA 2.23%) is a stock that, when it catches fire, can quickly become one of the best buys out there. It has a strong following of retail investors who are incredibly bullish about the company's long-term future. All it may take is one strong catalyst to ramp up that bullishness and squeeze short-sellers out, leaving a clear path for the stock to rally.

CEO Elon Musk is optimistic about the company's long-term future and often gives investors no shortage of reasons to be hopeful about the business. From electric vehicles to robotaxis to robots, Tesla's business looks full of long-term growth opportunities. And when there's a shorter-term catalyst to watch out for, that can be particularly noteworthy. Musk just gave investors a huge one to keep an eye out for.

Image source: Getty Images.

Robotaxi business to take off in 2026? One of the big reasons investors have been excited about Tesla's stock is the potential for it to dominate the robotaxi industry. While it's far behind Alphabet's Waymo, the company is looking to drastically pick up the pace. Tesla launched its first robotaxis in Austin, Texas, last year, and 2026 could be the year they reach many more markets.

Musk recently stated, "Tesla's rolled out robotaxi service in a few cities, and will be very, very widespread by the end of this year within the U.S." It's a significant prediction because it's based on the current year; it's not a forecast for the distant future. If Tesla does indeed roll out robotaxis on a large scale this year, that could offer much-needed proof to investors that the company can seriously compete with Waymo, which is currently averaging 450,000 paid rides per week.

Today's Change

(

-2.23

%) $

-9.04

Current Price

$

396.97

Investors should always tread carefully with Tesla and Musk's predictions Tesla's stock trades at a grossly inflated valuation -- 390 times its trailing earnings. That's incredibly steep when you consider that the average stock on the S&P 500 trades at an earnings multiple of just 26. For that kind of egregious valuation, you truly have to believe that the company is a leader in tech and that it will dominate the robotaxi market. But even then, the valuation still looks high.

Musk has made rosy projections in the past only for them to fall short or for Musk to alter them. This could be the same kind of situation. That's why, when it comes to Tesla's stock, it's important to be extra careful, given both its high valuation and Musk setting an incredibly high bar for the business to meet, which may not be realistic.

Widespread growth of its robotaxi business could be a catalyst for Tesla's stock this year, but investors would be wise to take a wait-and-see approach, rather than buying on those expectations.

StepStone Group Inc. (STEP) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Q1: 2026-02-05 Earnings SummaryEPS of $0.22 beats by $0.59

 |

Revenue of

$264.03M

(10,461.32% Y/Y)

beats by $33.19M

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARWR) Q1 2026 Earnings Call February 5, 2026 4:30 PM EST

Company Participants

Vincent Anzalone - Head of Investor Relations & VP
Dr. Christopher Anzalone - Chairman, CEO & President
Andy Davis - SVP of Cardiovascular & Head of Metabolic Franchise
James Hamilton - Chief Medical Officer and Head of R&D
Daniel Apel - Chief Financial Officer

Conference Call Participants

Michael Ulz - Morgan Stanley, Research Division
Maurice Raycroft - Jefferies LLC, Research Division
Andrea Tan - Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division
Prakhar Agrawal - Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., Research Division
Jason Gerberry - BofA Securities, Research Division
Patrick Trucchio - H.C. Wainwright & Co, LLC, Research Division
Edward Tenthoff - Piper Sandler & Co., Research Division
Joseph Thome - TD Cowen, Research Division
Mani Foroohar - Leerink Partners LLC, Research Division
Madison Wynne El-Saadi - B. Riley Securities, Inc., Research Division

Presentation

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the conference over to Vince Anzalone, Vice President of Investor Relations for Arrowhead. Please go ahead, Vince.

Vincent Anzalone
Head of Investor Relations & VP

Thank you, Victor. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today to discuss Arrowhead's results for its fiscal 2026 first quarter ended December 31, 2025.

With us today from management are President and CEO, Dr. Chris Anzalone, who will provide an overview; Andy Davis, Senior Vice President and Head of the Global Cardiometabolic Franchise, who will provide an update on commercialization activities; Dr. James Hamilton, Chief Medical Officer and Head of R&D, who will discuss our development programs; and Dan Apel, Chief Financial Officer, who will give a review of the financials. Following management's prepared remarks, we will open the call to questions.

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that comments made during today's call contain certain forward-looking statements

A senior Bloomberg Intelligence strategist has warned that Bitcoin could face a severe collapse toward $10,000 as global markets show signs of stress similar to past financial crises.

Summary

A Bloomberg analyst warned bitcoin price could fall toward $10,000. The call is linked to market stress and reduced liquidity. Bitcoin is trading near $63,000 after recent losses. In recent social media posts in early Feb. 2026, Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone shared the outlook, comparing current conditions to the 2008 financial crisis and the 2000–2001 dot-com downturn.

At press time, Bitcoin was trading near $63,000 after falling to around $60,000 on Feb. 5. Since its 2025 peak of over $126,000, the asset has dropped by almost 50%. Pressure on the cryptocurrency market has increased due to large liquidations, exchange-traded fund withdrawals, and low risk appetite.

McGlone links Bitcoin risk to macro stress According to McGlone, 2026 will be challenging for traders due to reduced liquidity, slower growth, and fading speculative excess. 

In his recent commentary, he pointed to what he described as “post-inflation deflation,” reduced central bank support, and years of aggressive risk-taking that are now being unwound. He also cited potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy, including hawkish appointments and slower rate cuts, as factors limiting liquidity.

According to McGlone, these conditions resemble periods that preceded major asset crashes in the past. In that context, he said Bitcoin could revisit levels near $10,000, which would represent an additional drop of more than 85% from current prices.

He has made similar warnings before. In late 2025, McGlone raised concerns about bubble-like behavior in crypto and warned of deep corrections. While those earlier calls did not play out in full, his latest comments link the risk more directly to wider market weakness.

McGlone has also highlighted persistent ETF outflows, lower speculative activity, and what he calls a “great reversion” after years of easy money and rising asset prices.

Signs of capitulation raise short-term uncertainty Other analysts see growing evidence that the market is entering a capitulation phase, even if they do not share McGlone’s extreme downside target.

In a Feb. 6 post on X, Jamie Coutts, a crypto market analyst at Real Vision, said pressure in derivatives and spot markets is intensifying. He noted that Bitcoin’s Implied Volatility Index has reached 88.55, close to the level of 105 recorded during the FTX collapse.

Capitulation Watch: Three Signs the Washout Is Getting Real

1. Bitcoin implied volatility (BVIV) at 88.55, closing in on the FTX-collapse peak of 105 (h/t @volmexfinance)

2. 8th largest Coinbase trading day ever by USD value ($3.34B). At ~$62K, that's roughly 54,000 BTC… pic.twitter.com/rWt979a4SS

— Jamie Coutts CMT (@Jamie1Coutts) February 6, 2026 Coutts also pointed to Coinbase’s eighth-largest daily trading volume on record at $3.34 billion, or roughly 54,000 BTC, as traders rushed to re-position. At the same time, daily relative strength index fell to 15.64, below levels seen during the March 2020 pandemic crash.

“The current margin calls and forced liquidations are typical of a capitulation phase,” Coutts wrote, adding that market bottoms often form over days or weeks rather than in a single session.

Based on past averages and actual price levels, some analysts argue that Bitcoin may find support in the $50,000 to $60,000 range. Some believe that the current decline is not the beginning of a complete collapse, but rather a reset following sharp gains in 2024 and 2025.

However, the risks are still high. If prices decline once more, large corporate holders, mining companies, and highly leveraged traders may experience additional strain. As the market looks for stability, traders are bracing themselves for more volatility in the coming weeks due to limited liquidity and fading confidence.

Bitwise Files S-1 With SEC to Launch Uniswap-Focused ETF, UNI Token Slumps 16%

Sujha Sundararajan

Author

Sujha Sundararajan

Part of the Team Since

Jun 2023

About Author

Sujha has been recognised as 🟣 Women In Crypto 2024 🟣 by BeInCrypto for her leadership in crypto journalism.

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Last updated: 

53 minutes ago

Crypto asset manager Bitwise has become the first to file with the US regulator to launch an exchange-traded fund (ETF) dedicated to Uniswap.

The fund targets exposure to Uniswap (UNI), the governance token of the leading decentralized exchange protocol. The ETF filing marks one of the pivotal moments for DeFi.

“The Trust’s investment objective is to seek to provide exposure to the value of Uniswap held by the Trust, less the expenses of the Trust’s operations and other liabilities,” the Thursday filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) read.

Uniswap is a decentralized exchange (DEX) built on Ethereum that offers token swaps without an intermediary. The regulatory authorities are currently reviewing the Bitwise application.

Bitwise Forms Delaware Statutory Trust for Uniswap ETFThe asset manager initially registered a Delaware statutory trust for a potential Uniswap fund on January 27, as a routine legal step that usually precedes an SEC filing.

The move positioned Bitwise to pursue a decentralized finance protocol-tied ETF to later advance to a federal filing.

The registration follows after the SEC backed off its investigation into Uniswap Labs, the Brooklyn-based company, in February 2025. The SEC charged Uniswap for operating as an unregistered securities exchange and issuing an unregistered security.

If approved by the regulator, the Coinbase Custody Trust Company would act as the custodian for the Bitwise Uniswap ETF.

Wider Crypto Market Slump Pulls UNI Token Down by Over 16%UNI, the native token of Uniswap, has plummeted 16.59% to $3.15 in the past 24 hours, underperforming a broader market sell-off.

The drop is part of a severe crypto-wide correction. The total market cap fell 9.84% in 24 hours, with the Fear & Greed Index hitting “Extreme Fear” at 5.

Besides, a key driver was a massive $1.03 billion in Bitcoin long liquidations, which forced leveraged positions to unwind across the board. UNI is trading at $3.15 at press time, per CoinMarketCap data.

Data shows social media users are still optimistic about XRP even as sentiment around Bitcoin and Ethereum has declined alongside the market downturn.

XRP Positive/Negative Sentiment Is Still At A Notable Level In a new post on X, analytics firm Santiment has talked about how social media sentiment has compared across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP during the latest market decline. The indicator of relevance here is the “Positive/Negative Sentiment,” which tells us about how positive comments related to a given asset stack up against the negative ones on the major social media platforms.

The metric works by assembling posts/comments/messages containing mentions of the asset and feeding them into a machine-learning model to classify them as bearish or bullish. It then counts up the number of posts in each category and finds their ratio.

When the value of this ratio is greater than 1, it means positive comments related to the cryptocurrency outweigh the negative ones. On the other hand, the indicator being under this threshold suggests the dominance of bearish sentiment.

Now, here is the chart shared by Santiment that shows the trend in the Positive/Negative Sentiment for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP over the past month:

The value of the metric seems to have varied between the assets | Source: Santiment on X As is visible in the above graph, the Positive/Negative Sentiment plunged across the three cryptocurrencies at the end of January as prices crashed. The indicator’s value slipped below 1 for each of them during this drop, indicating traders became bearish on the market as a whole.

As prices have continued to slide down since then, however, a shift has occurred in the Positive/Negative Sentiment, with its value separating for the three. The chart shows that the metric’s latest value for XRP is nearly 2.2, indicating that social media users have become more optimistic about the coin. Meanwhile, the indicator continues to be inside the bearish zone for Bitcoin with a value of 0.79.

Ethereum has seen some improvement in the metric to a neutral value of 1, but compared to the normal for January, this level could still be considered to reflect a bearish sentiment among the retail social media crowd.

Historically, digital asset markets have often tended to move in a direction contrary to the expectations of retail traders. This means that an extreme amount of fear can help prices rebound, while overhype can lead to tops.

“There remains a strong argument for a short-term relief rally as long as the small trader crowd continues to show disbelief toward cryptocurrency as a whole,” explained the analytics firm. Given that trader sentiment has diverged for XRP recently, however, it only remains to be seen how the sector will develop in the near future.

XRP Price At the time of writing, XRP is floating around $1.35, down more than 27% over the last seven days.

The trend in the price of the coin over the last five days | Source: XRPUSDT on TradingView Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Strategy’s Q4 2025 report shows a record multi‑billion loss on its Bitcoin bet, even as the company doubled down on BTC and shored up cash to ride out years of volatility.

Bitcoin Bet Sends Earnings Deep Into the RedBitcoin‑focused treasury company Strategy Inc has reported one of the largest quarterly losses ever seen by a U.S. public firm, underscoring both the scale of its crypto exposure and its determination to keep buying BTC through deep drawdowns.

MSTR Stock Chart Post-Q4 CollapseMSTR shares cratered 17% in after-hours trading following the earnings release, hitting multi-month lows as Bitcoin's year-end slide amplified the firm's unrealized losses. The stock has shed over 30% from its late-2025 peak, trading at levels not seen since mid-2025 amid debt and dilution fears, yet remains up massively year-over-year on BTC's long-term grind higher.

In its fourth-quarter 2025 results, Strategy disclosed a net loss of roughly 12.4–12.6 billion USD, as Bitcoin slid more than 20% from its October peak to under 88,500 USD by year-end. The bulk of that hit came from unrealized losses on the company’s massive Bitcoin stack, which flipped back into the red as prices retreated below the firm’s elevated cost basis.

As of Feb 1, 2026, Strategy held 713,502 BTC on its balance sheet, cementing its position as the largest corporate Bitcoin holder in the world. Those coins were acquired for a total of about 54.26 billion USD, implying an average purchase price of roughly 76,052 USD per BTC.

With Bitcoin recently trading only slightly above that level, the firm’s treasury has oscillated around breakeven, generating enormous quarter-to-quarter swings in reported earnings as BTC whipsaws.

War Chest Strategy: 713K BTC and a $2.25B Cash BufferInstead of retrenching, Strategy spent 2025 aggressively tapping capital markets to expand its Bitcoin war chest. The company raised roughly 25.3 billion USD over the year, largely via common stock and preferred share offerings, and added more than 200,000 BTC to its holdings. That made Strategy one of the largest equity issuers in the U.S. market for a second straight year, even as critics warned of heavy dilution and growing sensitivity to BTC volatility.

To address concerns around sustainability of its payout obligations, Strategy has simultaneously built a sizeable cash buffer designed to cover dividends and interest for years without selling Bitcoin. Management says a 2.25 billion USD USD reserve now provides roughly 2.5 years of coverage for dividend and interest payments at the current run‑rate, effectively ring‑fencing cash flows from short‑term BTC price shocks.

The result is a barbell structure: highly volatile reported earnings tied to mark‑to‑market Bitcoin moves, offset by a growing pool of contractual income obligations backed by a dedicated cash reserve. Supporters argue this “digital fortress” model allows long‑term BTC accumulation while insulating creditors and preferred shareholders, whereas skeptics view it as a highly leveraged bet on a single, unpredictable asset.

For Bitcoin investors, Strategy’s latest quarter is a stark reminder of how quickly paper profits can flip into double‑digit‑billion losses when BTC reverses. Yet the company’s continued accumulation, record capital raising and thicker USD reserve suggest its leadership still sees volatility as a feature, not a bug, and is preparing to ride out multiple more Bitcoin cycles without abandoning its core thesis.

Vitalik Buterin warns copy-paste Layer 2s and generic EVM chains are stalling Ethereum’s long-term scaling vision.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has said that many new Layer 2 (L2) networks are repeating shallow design patterns, and warned that generic EVM chains with optimistic bridges are holding back meaningful progress.

His comments extend the public debate over whether today’s L2 ecosystem still aligns with Ethereum’s original scaling goals.

No More “Copypasta” EVM Chains In a February 5 post on X, Buterin argued that comfort and familiarity, not technical necessity, are driving many L2 launches, leading to copy-paste designs that add little beyond surface-level Ethereum compatibility.

The developer drew a comparison between infrastructure choices and governance habits, writing that making yet another EVM chain and adding “an optimistic bridge to Ethereum with a one-week delay” has become routine in the same way forking Compound once dominated DAO governance.

“That’s something we’ve done far too much for far too long, because we got comfortable, and which has sapped our imagination and put us in a dead end,” Buterin wrote.

He was even more direct about alternative designs that drop Ethereum bridges entirely.

“If you make an EVM chain without an optimistic bridge to Ethereum, that’s even worse,” he said, adding, “We don’t friggin need more copypasta EVM chains, and we definitely don’t need even more L1s.”

Buterin insisted that Ethereum’s base layer is already scaling and will continue to add EVM block space through 2026, though not without limits. He noted that some workloads, such as AI-related applications, may still require lower latency or specialized execution environments. In his view, those needs should push developers toward genuinely new architectures rather than lightly modified replicas.

Matching “Vibes” With Real Ethereum Connection Buterin’s criticism builds on comments he made earlier, suggesting many L2s no longer meet the original definition of scaling Ethereum because they fail to fully inherit its security.

You may also like: Why Vitalik Buterin Says L2s Aren’t Scaling Ethereum Anymore Digital Assets Lose $73B Since October 2025 Highs, CoinShares Finds Vitalik Buterin Earns $70,000 Profit on Polymarket Using Anti-Irrationality Strategy He argued that Ethereum no longer needs L2s to act as branded shards, especially considering mainnet fees are falling and gas limits are rising.

In his latest post, the 32-year-old stressed that public positioning should reflect technical reality. “Vibes need to match substance,” he wrote, criticizing projects that market themselves as tightly connected to Ethereum while treating that link as an afterthought.

The blockchain’s co-founder outlined two models he considers reasonable. One is an app chain that depends deeply on Ethereum, such as prediction markets that settle and manage accounts on the L1 while handling execution on a rollup. The other is what he called “institutional L2s,” where systems like government registries publish cryptographic proofs on-chain for transparency, even if they are not trustless or credibly neutral.

“If you’re the first thing, it’s valid and great to call yourself an Ethereum application,” Buterin said. “If you’re the second thing, then you’re not Ethereum… so you should just say those things directly.”

Tags:

The largest transfers went to credit and trading firm Two Prime, which received more than 660 BTC, while additional chunks were sent to a BitGo address and a fresh wallet. Feb 6, 2026, 4:43 a.m.

Bitcoin miner MARA moved 1,318 BTC worth about $86.89 million to a mix of counterparties and custody venues over the past 10 hours, onchain data tracked by Arkham shows.

The biggest slice went to Two Prime. One transfer sent 653.773 BTC, around $42.01 million, to a Two Prime tagged address, alongside a smaller 8.999 BTC top up worth about $578,000 just minutes later.

STORY CONTINUES BELOW

Separate outbound transactions sent 200 BTC and 99.999 BTC to a BitGo tagged address, together about $20.4 million at the time of transfer, while another 305 BTC moved to a fresh address, worth roughly $20.72 million.

(Arkham)

The flow matters mainly because of timing. Crypto markets have been swinging hard since this week’s liquidation driven selloff, and traders are on edge for any sign that miners are turning into forced sellers.

Large miner related transfers can be routine treasury management, custody reshuffling, collateral moves, or preparation for an over the counter sale, but in a thin market they often get read as a supply signal.

The Two Prime leg will draw the most attention because it is a credit and trading counterparty. If the bitcoin is being posted as collateral or rotated into a strategy, it does not necessarily imply spot selling.

The transfers comes amid a tough period for miners, with bitcoin down nearly 50% from peak prices above $126,000 last year.

Bitcoin is now approximately 20% below its estimated average production cost, as CoinDesk reported Thursday, increasing financial pressure across the BTC mining sector.

The average cost to mine one bitcoin is around $87,000, according to data from Checkonchain, while the spot price has fallen toward a weekly low of $60,000 Historically, trading below production cost has been a feature of a bear market.

Strategy has told investors that Bitcoin would have to collapse to around $8,000 before its crypto holdings no longer cover the company’s net debt, even as paper losses continue to deepen.

Summary

Strategy holds more than 713,000 BTC acquired at an average of $76,052. Management says debt coverage fails only near $8,000. Current Bitcoin prices place holdings about $10B below cost. The Michael Saylor-led firm made the disclosure in investor materials released alongside its fourth-quarter results on Feb. 5.

At the time of the filing, Strategy said its Bitcoin (BTC) holdings were worth $59.7 billion at a reference price of $84,000, about 10 times compared with net debt of about $6 billion.

With Bitcoin now trading near $63,800, the value of those holdings has fallen to roughly $45.4 billion, as per Saylor Tracker data, down about $10 billion from the company’s average purchase cost.

Debt coverage and balance sheet position Strategy said its Bitcoin would fail to cover net debt only in what it described as an “extreme scenario” involving a drop to $8,000, a level last seen in early 2020. The company added that its Bitcoin is unencumbered and not pledged as collateral, which limits the risk of forced selling even during sharp market declines.

As of Feb. 1, 2026, Strategy held 713,502 BTC, acquired at a total cost of $54.26 billion, or $76,052 per coin. The firm also reported a 22.8% Bitcoin yield for fiscal year 2025, reflecting gains from capital raising and reinvestment strategies.

During 2025, Strategy raised $25.3 billion in capital, making it the largest U.S. equity issuer for a second straight year. It also completed five preferred stock offerings, raising $5.5 billion, and expanded its digital credit program, STRC, to $3.4 billion.

“We raised $25.3 billion of capital in 2025 to advance our Bitcoin treasury strategy,” said president and CEO Phong Le. “In 2026, we remain focused on expanding STRC to generate amplification and drive growth in Bitcoin Per Share.”

Chief financial officer Andrew Kang said the company’s capital structure is stronger than in previous cycles, citing its $2.25 billion reserve fund, which covers more than two years of dividend and interest payments.

Michael Saylor described Strategy’s balance sheet as a “digital fortress,” built around its Bitcoin holdings and digital credit platform.

Losses, valuation, and sector-wide pressure Strategy’s confidence in its debt coverage comes as losses linked to Bitcoin volatility continue to weigh on financial results.

Due to unrealized losses on digital assets under fair value accounting, the company reported an operating loss of $17.4 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025. Common shareholders incurred a net loss of $12.6 billion, or $42.93 per diluted share.

With Bitcoin trading in the low $60,000 range, Strategy’s holdings are now valued at about $45.4 billion, well below their $54.26 billion acquisition cost. Since late 2025, as prices fell and selling pressure mounted on cryptocurrency markets, that gap has grown. 

At the moment, the company’s diluted multiple to net asset value, or mNAV, is about 0.85x. mNAV measures how the market values a firm’s equity relative to the net value of its assets, mainly its Bitcoin holdings, after accounting for debt. A ratio below 1 means the stock is trading at a discount to the underlying asset value.

Pressure is also building across the wider crypto treasury sector. Data from Artemis shows that unrealized losses among crypto accumulation firms have surpassed $25 billion. None of those firms has generated profits that exceed acquisition costs.

Some analysts view Strategy’s $8,000 threshold as a theoretical floor rather than a realistic risk. Others note that prolonged weakness below $60,000 could test investor confidence, raise re-financing costs, and limit the company’s ability to raise new capital on favorable terms.

Representation of Bitcoin cryptocurrency in this illustration taken September 10, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

SINGAPORE, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Bitcoin made a 16-month low and tested key $60,000 support on Friday, as a global selloff in technology stocks deepened and washed out risky bets across asset classes.

The world's largest cryptocurrency was last up 1.64% at $64,153.24 in volatile trade, swinging between gains and losses after having hit a low of $60,008.52 earlier in the session.

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That marked its weakest since October 2024, a month before Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election, having signalled his intention to support crypto on the campaign trail.

"Bitcoin's been going down since October (2025), maybe you could ask if it was the canary in the coalmine, or a coincidence," said Chris Weston, head of research at brokerage Pepperstone in Melbourne.

"A lot of these big crowded positions are being unwound very, very quickly."

Ether was last up 2.4% at $1,891.27, having slid to a 10-month low of $1,751.94 earlier in the session.

The global crypto market has lost some $2 trillion in value since hitting a peak of $4.379 trillion in early October, CoinGecko data showed, with more than $1 trillion wiped out over the past month alone.

Bitcoin was on track to shed 16% for the week, taking its losses for the year so far to 27%. Meanwhile, ether was headed for a weekly decline of 17%, with losses of 36% so far this year.

Sentiment on crypto was affected by the latest selling in precious metals and stocks. Gold and silver, for instance, have become more volatile as a result of leveraged buying and speculative flows.

Bitcoin's fortunes have been tied to the broader tech sector for some time. The price tended to rise, particularly on the back of investor enthusiasm over artificial intelligence.

"Bitcoin drifting back toward $60,000 is not crypto dying, it is the bill coming due for Treasuries and funds that treated bitcoin as a one-way asset without real risk controls, just as we have seen sharp corrections in self-proclaimed safe-haven assets like gold and silver when leverage and narrative ran ahead of reality," said Joshua Chu, co-chair of the Hong Kong Web3 Association.

"Those who bet too big, borrowed too much or assumed prices only go up are now finding out the hard way what real market volatility and risk management look like."

To be sure, cryptocurrencies have struggled for months since a record crash last October sent bitcoin tumbling from a peak.

That has resulted in investor sentiment cooling off on digital assets.

Analysts from Deutsche Bank said in a note that U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs witnessed outflows of more than $3 billion in January, following outflows of about $2 billion and $7 billion in December and November, respectively.

Reporting by Rae Wee and Tom Westbrook; Editing by Jacqueline Wong

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

The meme coin market is roaring back as total cap jumps 3% in just 24 hours to $38.1 billion, sending traders scrambling for the hottest plays. Fartcoin rockets 7% and Peanut the Squirrel surges 9%, proving that even in a volatile market, select coins are igniting furious momentum. Every spike is turning heads, and early movers are positioning for what could be the next explosive wave.

That rush is shining a spotlight on opportunities with massive upside. APEMARS is emerging as one of the best crypto coins, with its presale drawing sharp attention from investors eager to get in before hype hits full force. With meme coins heating up fast, APEMARS offers a prime chance for early entry and strategic positioning ahead of the next major surge.

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Fartcoin Holds $0.3616 as 24-Hour Gains Reach 5.82% Amid Range-Bound Trading Fartcoin trades near $0.3616 after rising 5.82 % in the past 24 hours, consolidating within a narrow range between 0.3619 and 0.4035. With a market capitalization of 211.89 million and 97K coins circulating, the token shows building momentum while awaiting a potential breakout. Traders are watching closely for decisive moves.

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PNUT Holds $0.0658 as Weekly Losses Reach 24.35%  PNUT trades near $0.0658 after posting a slight 0.46 % intraday gain, attempting to find a floor following a 24.35 % weekly decline. With a market capitalization of 53.74 million and 82K coins circulating, the unlocked market cap remains the same. Traders are observing early signs of stabilization as buying interest emerges at key support levels.

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For More Information: Website: Visit the Official APEMARS Website

Telegram: Join the APEMARS Telegram Channel

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Summary APEMARS ($APRZ), Fartcoin, and Peanut the Squirrel are shaping the meme coin market in 2026. APEMARS offers the best crypto coins potential with structured presale stages and utilities, while Fartcoin and Peanut the Squirrel provide entertainment, community engagement, and steady growth. Investors looking for next 100x crypto opportunities should monitor all three for both fun and serious gains.

Disclaimer: The statements, views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the content provider and do not necessarily represent those of Crypto Reporter. Crypto Reporter is not responsible for the trustworthiness, quality, accuracy of any materials in this article. This article is provided for educational purposes only. Crypto Reporter is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article. Do your research and invest at your own risk.

Bhutan Bitcoin sale speculation is growing after on-chain data revealed several large BTC and stablecoin transfers linked to the Royal Government of Bhutan during a steep Bitcoin price decline. While these transactions have raised concerns about possible selling pressure, blockchain records do not yet confirm that Bhutan has sold its Bitcoin holdings.

According to Arkham data, two days ago the Royal Government of Bhutan transferred 184.028 BTC, worth approximately $14.09 million at the time, to a wallet beginning with “bc1q0…”. Because the destination wallet is not clearly tied to a crypto exchange, the transaction alone does not prove an outright sale. Five days earlier, Arkham also flagged another Bhutan-linked transfer of 100.818 BTC, valued at around $8.31 million, sent to a wallet believed to be associated with trading firm QCP Capital. Again, the movement only shows funds leaving the Druk Holding–labeled wallet, not confirmation of liquidation.

Adding to the speculation, Bhutan recently moved stablecoins as well. On-chain data shows a transfer of 1.5 million USDT from the Royal Government of Bhutan to a Binance hot wallet, valued at $1.5 million. This move has fueled theories that Bhutan may be repositioning assets or preparing for market activity amid heightened volatility.

These transfers occurred as Bitcoin experienced a sharp downturn. BTC fell roughly 19% in a single week, sliding from the $90,000–$92,000 range to the mid-$60,000s by early February. Data from Coinglass shows Bitcoin netflows turning increasingly negative in late January and early February, with multiple outflow spikes between $300 million and $450 million. This suggests broader market forces beyond any single entity’s actions.

Market analysts weighed in on the sell-off. Lark Davis described the move as “price insensitive selling,” noting extreme oversold conditions and heavy liquidations. VanEck’s Matthew Sigel highlighted aggressive deleveraging, pointing to a sharp drop in Bitcoin futures open interest and billions in crypto liquidations. Meanwhile, economist Peter Schiff argued the bear market may not be over, suggesting further downside could still unfold.

Together, Bhutan’s Bitcoin transfers and worsening market metrics have intensified uncertainty, but without confirmed exchange sales, speculation remains just that.

<Copyright ⓒ TokenPost, unauthorized reproduction and redistribution prohibited>

In brief Bitcoin has suffered one of its steepest daily declines since 2022, extending losses from its 2025 peak. The selloff triggered more than $1.4 billion in liquidations as leverage continues to unwind across the market. Analysts told Decrypt price action meets bear-market definitions, though some see scope for a short-term technical rebound. Bitcoin’s sharp retreat from its late 2025 peak, capped by its worst single-day drop since the 2022 market crash, has reignited concerns that crypto has already entered a bear market under conventional definitions.

Between February 4 and 5, Bitcoin logged one of its sharpest trading periods in more than three years, posting a roughly 14% single-day decline, the largest since a 14.19% drop on November 9, 2022, according to historical data on CoinGlass.

Bitcoin’s price fell from around $73,100 to a low near $60,255 by Thursday evening, extending Bitcoin’s drawdown to more than 50% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080, and triggering more than $1.4 billion in liquidations over a 24-hour period, according to data from CoinGlass.

The world's largest crypto has since clawed back losses, trading down more than 10% on the day to $64,400, CoinGecko data shows.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s drawdowns have exceeded thresholds commonly used to define bear markets in equities and other risk assets. The move has unfolded alongside persistent weakness in broader risk sentiment.

A bear market is typically defined as a decline of about 20% or more from a recent peak in a price or a broad market index over a sustained period of time, typically more than a few months.

The downturn has shifted attention toward stress points across the crypto ecosystem, particularly Bitcoin miners and corporate crypto treasuries, as falling prices squeeze margins and weaken balance sheets, raising the risk of capitulation, consolidation, or forced selling.

Some analysts warn the selloff may not be finished. They point to deteriorating momentum, leverage unwinds, and macro pressure as factors that could push Bitcoin toward lower support levels, with $38,000 cited as a potential downside target if selling accelerates.

When asked by Decrypt whether the industry was in the midst of a crypto winter, Vice President of research at GSR, Carlos Guzman, said he wasn't "entirely sure."

“We’ve historically seen a four-year cycle, and it has tended to be fairly consistent, but I don’t think there’s a strong fundamental reason for it," Guzman said. "To some extent, it’s self-fulfilling; investors expect a four-year cycle, and so it plays out that way."

"That said, I see the fundamentals improving," he added. "It’s hard for me to believe we’re heading into an extended winter. It remains to be seen, and markets can always prove me wrong, but in my view the four-year cycle may be coming to an end, and I don’t expect a prolonged downturn.”

Based solely on price action, it is evident that the crypto industry has “entered a bear market,” Siwon Huh, researcher at crypto analytics firm Four Pillars, told Decrypt.

The defining distinction between a bear market and a temporary downturn, Huh explained, “is the duration required for price recovery.”

“Since the broader tech and software sector effectively dictates the direction of global liquidity, the crypto market will inevitably remain tethered to macroeconomic trends as long as this dynamic persists,” he added.

Still, despite the transition to a bear market, market movements over the past two weeks have been “erratic, almost to the point of feeling artificial,” Huh noted.

Huh said the “critical factor defining this bear market” entry is the “high likelihood that liquidity exiting the market will flow back into equities or commodities rather than returning to crypto.”

“Since the primary driver appears to be a decline stemming from psychological risk-off sentiment, I believe there is a strong possibility of a significant short-term technical rebound,” he said, adding that the underlying fundamentals remain unchanged.

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S&P 500 Remains Strong as Bitcoin Slides to a 1-Year LowUS equities advanced toward record highs, driven by strong earnings, AI stocks, and improving market breadth.Bitcoin fell below $65,000, hitting a one-year low as capital rotated away from crypto toward profit-backed assets.The divergence highlights a clear risk split, with investors favoring earnings visibility over liquidity-driven trades.US equities rebounded as the S&P 500 climbed to $6,976, before correcting. Earlier in the week, the benchmark index closed just shy of its prior record before briefly moving higher in subsequent trading, while risk appetite in equities contrasted sharply with continued weakness across crypto markets.

At the same time, Bitcoin continued to underperform, with selling pressure accelerating as broader capital flows favored traditional risk assets. The divergence has become more pronounced in recent sessions, reinforcing the growing split between equity and crypto sentiment.

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AI Stocks and Small Caps Drive Equity MomentumThe latest leg higher in the S&P 500 was led by large-cap technology and semiconductor stocks, as investors rotated back into AI-linked names after a brief pause driven by valuation concerns. 

Alphabet rose to a new record, Amazon advanced ahead of earnings, and chipmakers posted broad-based gains as demand expectations firmed.

Beneath the surface, market breadth also improved. Small-cap stocks outpaced megacaps, with the Russell 2000 gaining around 3% year-to-date. 

That relative strength is often interpreted as a signal of confidence in domestic growth and has added support to broader stock market predictions that point to continued upside as long as earnings momentum holds.

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Earnings, Not Valuations, Now Anchor the RallyCorporate results remain the central driver of the market’s advance. Analysts now expect S&P 500 companies to deliver close to 11% earnings growth for the December quarter, up sharply from estimates earlier in January. 

More than 80% of reporting firms have exceeded expectations so far, according to FactSet data cited by market strategists.

Recent research suggests earnings growth has accounted for roughly 84% of total S&P 500 returns in the current cycle, marking a shift away from multiple expansion as the primary engine of gains. This transition has softened concerns around an AI-driven bubble, as profits and cash flow increasingly justify higher prices.

GS: S&P 500 year/year EPS growth is tracking at +11%, 4ppt above the +7% rate that consensus expected at the start of earnings season. pic.twitter.com/9DC2qkAbgJ

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) January 31, 2026 Macro Backdrop Keeps Risk Appetite IntactThe broader macro environment has so far supported equity risk-taking. US GDP growth remains near 3.3%, inflation trends are relatively contained, and productivity indicators have improved. Even political disruptions, including a federal government shutdown that delayed key data releases, failed to dent market confidence materially.

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Major US indices posted solid gains alongside the S&P 500, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising more than 1% YTD. But the Nasdaq Composite dropped roughly 2.6%. 

Dow Jones Year-To-Date ChartInvestors now look ahead to upcoming economic data and the Federal Reserve’s next policy signals for confirmation that financial conditions will remain supportive.

Bitcoin Weakness Highlights Cross-Market DivergenceWhile equities pushed higher, crypto markets moved in the opposite direction. Bitcoin price dropped below $65,000, marking its lowest level in roughly a year and extending a broader downtrend that has weighed on digital assets. 

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The decline has come amid fading momentum, reduced speculative appetite, and capital rotation toward equities offering visible earnings growth.

The contrasting performance reflects a growing divergence between traditional risk assets and crypto, at least in the near term. 

While both markets can benefit from liquidity-driven rallies, current conditions favor assets tied more directly to corporate profits.

Bitcoin 7-Day Price Chart. Source: CoincodexOutlookThe S&P 500’s move to new highs reflects a rally increasingly grounded in earnings delivery rather than expanding valuations. AI investment, small-cap strength, and resilient macro data continue to support the upside case, even as record levels invite selective caution.

Bitcoin’s slide to a one-year low highlights where risk appetite is thinning, but for now, equity markets remain firmly in control of the broader risk narrative.

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