Market Signal Briefing

As the market remains in abundant turbulence mode, Solana’s on-chain activity delivers some rare good news.

Market Sentiment:

Bullish Bearish Neutral

Published: February 19, 2026 │ 6:50 PM GMT

Created by Kornelija Poderskytė from DailyCoin

Solana’s SOL pushed back through the $80 mark as network usage hit what participants described as a fresh high-water mark for transaction activity, a combination that traders often read as a sign of renewed demand rather than a purely speculative bounce.

The move comes amid a broader market that has been selective: capital has flowed toward assets showing clear, measurable traction on-chain, while many smaller tokens have struggled to break out of tight ranges.

SOL Network Activity Provides The Catalyst Data circulated in the crypto press pointed to record transaction throughput on Solana over the latest stretch, with rising user activity and application traffic cited as key drivers.

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While “record” claims can vary depending on which metric is used—raw transactions, successful transactions, or transactions adjusted for vote activity—the direction of travel has been difficult to miss.

For SOL, the timing mattered. Price reclaiming a round number like $80 can act as a sentiment reset after weeks of choppy trading, and higher activity tends to reinforce the narrative that demand is coming from actual usage rather than only leverage.

Still, traders cautioned that transaction spikes can be noisy, especially when incentive programs or short-lived app trends temporarily inflate counts. The more durable signal will be whether elevated activity persists without corresponding stress on fees, latency, or reliability.

Why the $80 Reclaim Matters In This Tape Elsewhere in the market, attention has been split between institutional positioning in bitcoin-linked products and signs of uneven liquidity across risk assets. That backdrop has made “proof of usage” stories more potent: investors are looking for ecosystems that can demonstrate real engagement during a cautious macro tape.

Solana’s recovery above $80 also puts focus back on the chain’s consumer and trading-oriented applications—areas where it has often shown bursts of rapid adoption. If usage remains elevated, it can support fee generation and validator economics, and it can strengthen the case for developers deciding where to build next.

📊Solana Data Insights – @Solana Commands 49% of x402 Market Share as Micropayment Competition Intensifies

✍️ @ario_57_

Key takeaways from this report:

• Solana currently holds 49.7% of x402 transaction share, down from a peak above 88% earlier this month as competition from… pic.twitter.com/sB40eGrZdG

— SolanaFloor (@SolanaFloor) February 16, 2026 The risk is that a price-led narrative outruns fundamentals. If activity cools quickly or market liquidity tightens, SOL could give back gains just as fast as it reclaimed them.

For crypto investors, our takeaway is straightforward: in a market still sensitive to liquidity and confidence, coins backed by visible network demand tend to attract the next wave of bids first—and Solana is trying to make that case again above $80.

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Market Sentiment

100% Bullish

This article is for information purposes only and should not be considered trading or investment advice. Nothing herein shall be construed as financial, legal, or tax advice. Trading forex, cryptocurrencies, and CFDs pose a considerable risk of loss.

Public Bitcoin miners are planning about 30 gigawatts of new power capacity aimed at artificial intelligence workloads, nearly three times the 11 GW they currently have online, as they race to offset shrinking mining margins and reposition for the next growth cycle.

The buildout, compiled by TheEnergyMag across 14 publicly traded Bitcoin (BTC) miners, underscores how aggressively the industry is pivoting away from traditional hashpower amid persistently weak hashprice conditions.

On paper, the planned expansion amounts to what TheEnergyMag described as “a small country’s worth of power infrastructure.” In reality, much of the 30 GW sits in development pipelines, interconnection queues or early-stage plans, rather than operational facilities.

Current and proposed power capacities of public Bitcoin miners. Source: TheEnergyMagThe widening gap suggests competition is shifting from ASIC efficiency to securing power, financing and delivering data centers on time.

“This is the megawatt arms race of the AI boom,” TheEnergyMag said, adding that monetization ultimately depends on whether AI demand remains strong enough to justify the scale of investment.

AI pivot delivers early revenue gains for some minersThe shift toward artificial intelligence infrastructure reflects an increasingly hybrid strategy among established Bitcoin miners, with some companies already reporting meaningful revenue contributions from AI and high-performance computing (HPC) workloads.

One example is HIVE Digital, which recently posted record quarterly revenue driven in part by its AI and HPC business lines. The company reported fourth-quarter sales of $93.1 million, up 219% year on year, even as Bitcoin prices declined during the period.

Investors, too, are attuned to the shift. Earlier this week, Starboard Value went public with its suggestion to Riot Platforms management that they accelerate the miner’s expansion into HPC and AI data centers.

The push to diversify comes as mining profits have taken a hit since the 2024 Bitcoin halving, which cut block rewards and squeezed margins across the industry.

Conditions have gotten even tougher since the fourth quarter, when heavy selling pressure sent Bitcoin tumbling from its record high above $126,000. Prices eventually stabilized in February, after briefly falling to below $60,000.

Despite these headwinds, US-based miners showed resilience at the start of the year, with output rebounding after a severe winter storm temporarily disrupted operations.

Source: Julien MorenoCointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy

Journalist

Posted: February 19, 2026

In the current market environment, any asset that diverges from the broader sell-off can quickly spark a momentum-driven frenzy, pulling in capital while also raising the risk of a short-lived speculative cycle.

From this standpoint, Hyperliquid [HYPE] stands out. With roughly 14% upside so far in 2026, it remains one of the few altcoins printing a green quarterly candle, clearly moving against the broader market trend.

That said, $30 is proving to be a tough ceiling. HYPE’s made two failed attempts to break through, putting it in a classic volatility loop that could swing into either a bull or bear trap depending on the next move.

Source: Coinglass

Looking deeper, whale activity paints an interesting picture. 

The largest cohort seems to be expecting another rejection at resistance, viewing HYPE’s 14% rally so far as a short-term spike rather than the start of a sustained trend, with speculative bets still skewed to the downside.

From a strategic perspective, after two failed breakout attempts, their positioning makes perfect sense. The question is whether smart money is seeing something the broader market hasn’t priced in yet, or if it’s just cautious positioning. 

Either way, HYPE could be gearing up for its next big directional move.

HYPE’s fine line between confidence and FOMO Hyperliquid’s technicals are leaning in favor of the whales’ bearish bets. 

After a near 12% drop over the past two weeks, HYPE has pulled back to the $28 level following a brief run past $38, reflecting a classic profit-taking wave as FOMO cooled across both spot and derivatives markets.

That said, analysts see this more as a short-term reset than a breakdown in fundamentals. On-chain activity remains strong, and RWA exposure is solid, with 31% of protocol volume coming from stocks and commodities.

Source: TradingView (HYPE/USDT)

In short, the altcoin is walking the line between FOMO and conviction. 

Big moves from whales underline this: Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder, just added another 1 million HYPE, taking his total to 6.4 million tokens and adding to the growing institutional accumulation behind the token.

Given this context, calling Hyperliquid’s recent pullback a sustained breakdown seems premature. On-chain metrics remain strong, fundamentals are solid, and investor confidence hasn’t wavered.

All of these point to a textbook short squeeze in the making, setting HYPE up to challenge the $30 level as bulls and bears battle for control. On-chain data, however, is screaming a classic “bear trap.”

Final Summary HYPE is bucking the market trend with whales positioning for another test of $30, but previous failed breakouts hint at volatility and potential traps. On-chain activity and fundamentals remain strong, suggesting a short squeeze setup.

How Will Bitcoin React if the US Military Strikes Iran This Weekend? Prefer us on Google

Bitcoin held near $66,000 as US strike fears on Iran grew, increasing market uncertainty and volatility.Short-term holders are selling at a loss, showing fear, while risk-adjusted metrics suggest Bitcoin is already heavily stressed.A strike could trigger a short-term drop, but oversold conditions may limit downside and support recovery afterward.Bitcoin traded near $66,400 on February 19, holding steady after days of volatility. However, growing fears of a potential US military strike on Iran are adding fresh uncertainty to global markets, including crypto.

According to confirmed reports from multiple American media, US military officials have told President Donald Trump that strike options against Iran are ready and could be executed as early as this weekend. 

BREAKING: Axios reports that there is evidence that US war with Iran is "imminent" and Israel is preparing for a scenario of "war within days," which is expected to include:

1. Weeks-long "full-fledged" war unlike the Venezuela operation, sources say

2. Joint US-Israeli…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 18, 2026 US-Iran on the Brink of War as Bitcoin Holds Fragile SupportThe Pentagon has already deployed additional aircraft and moved a second carrier strike group toward the Middle East. At the same time, Iran has conducted military exercises and warned it would retaliate if attacked.

These developments follow stalled nuclear talks and rising tensions over Iran’s uranium enrichment and missile programs. 

The White House said diplomacy remains the preferred path, but officials also acknowledged that military action is under active consideration. This escalation has increased risk across global markets.

Satellite Images Show Iran Building Concrete Shields Over Military Sites, Potentially Preparing for US Strikes. Source: ReutersBitcoin’s recent price action reflects this uncertainty. The asset has fallen sharply from its cycle highs above $100,000 and now trades in the mid-$60,000 range. 

Short-term investors are selling at a loss, according to the Short-Term Holder SOPR indicator, which currently sits below 1. This means many recent buyers are exiting their positions under pressure.

At the same time, Bitcoin’s short-term Sharpe ratio has dropped to extremely negative levels. This shows that recent returns have been poor relative to volatility. Historically, such conditions appear during periods of market stress and fear.

Bitcoin Short-Term Investors are Selling at a Loss, According to SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) Chart. Source: CryptoQuantIf the US launches a strike this weekend, Bitcoin will likely react in two phases.

Bitcoin’s On-Chain Signals Suggest Panic May Trigger VolatilityFirst, markets may see an immediate sell-off. During sudden geopolitical shocks, investors often move into cash and safer assets. Bitcoin has historically behaved like a risk asset in the early phase of global crises. The SOPR data confirms that short-term holders are already weak and sensitive to fear.

However, the second phase could look different.

The Sharpe ratio suggests Bitcoin is already deeply oversold in the short term. Many weak hands have exited. This reduces the amount of forced selling that can still occur. 

As a result, any sharp drop could be short-lived if buyers step in at lower levels.

Bitcoin’s Short-Term Sharpe Ratio Hit a Level Historically Reserved For Generational Buying Zones

“The arrows in the chart illustrate this clearly: each prior extreme negative reading was followed by violent recoveries to new highs.” – By @MorenoDV_ pic.twitter.com/nxFBUgHxi9

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 19, 2026 In addition, geopolitical uncertainty can eventually strengthen Bitcoin’s appeal. Investors often turn to assets outside traditional financial systems when global tensions rise. This shift does not happen instantly, but it tends to develop over time.

For now, Bitcoin sits at a critical point. Fear remains high, and geopolitical risks are rising. But on-chain data suggests much of the damage from the recent correction has already occurred.

The next move will depend heavily on whether tensions escalate into actual military conflict—or ease through diplomacy.

Disclaimer

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The headline may look like ragebait but at the current outflow rate its an objective truth. Since Bitcoin hit its all-time high last October, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows on 55 days out of 89. If this doesn't turn around before the next halving there will be a lot less BTC inside ETF wrappers on that day.

Before we look at how quickly ETFs could trend toward zero, let's look at the “glass half full” perspective of the current situation (skip to here if you're only here for the bearish take).

Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst Eric Balchunas today pointed to the number he believes matters more than most, cumulative net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs.

He highlighted the total peaked around $63 billion in October, and sits around $53 billion today, with roughly $8 billion in outflows during a steep drawdown.

Bitcoin ETF cumulative inflows (Source: Bloomberg)The point he was making was simple; a lot of money has come in, and a lot of it has stayed.

That matters because the story around Bitcoin’s relationship with Wall Street has started to change tone.

The easy version goes like this, ETFs arrived, institutions showed up, Bitcoin became “grown up.” Then the market rolled over, and the same institutions headed for the exits. Reality looks messier, and more human.

Zoom out and the ETF era still reads like a shockingly large success by sheer net intake.

Cumulative net inflows for US spot Bitcoin ETFs sit at about $54.31 billion, even after recent bleeding, which is an enormous number for a product category that is still only a couple years old.

Zoom in and the last few months feel like a different movie.

Since the October crash, $8.66 billion has flowed out of US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, and Bitcoin has fallen more than 40% from its October peak near $126,000.

Those two truths can sit together and still describe the same world. People buy for different reasons, and people sell for different reasons. A shiny wrapper turns Bitcoin into something you can click in a brokerage account while you are eating lunch, and that single change brings a wider mix of motives into the trade.

That resonates with those outside Wall Street lives inside that mix. “Institutional adoption” looks like a thousand committees, advisors, platforms, and individuals making small choices that add up to a giant, visible tape.

The tape invites storytelling, and it also invites mistakes, because a number that updates every day can feel like a verdict.

To understand the underlying trade happening on Wall Street, however, we need to pair ETF outflows with another signal, futures exposure on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. This is because Authorized Participants (and other institutions) use futures to arbitrage risk and profit from their role in providing BTC for ETF baskets of shares.

CME exposure fell by about two-thirds from a late-2024 peak to roughly $8 billion, and that lines up with the sense that the biggest, cleanest institutional venues are carrying less risk than they did at the top.

Wall Street’s footprints keep showing upCME itself publishes dashboards for Bitcoin futures volume and activity, and the broader message is easy to follow, participation expands, participation contracts, and when it contracts across multiple venues at once, every rally attempt feels different.

Coinbase, the venue many US institutions prefer, has traded at a discount to offshore exchange Binance, a sign of sustained US selling. If you are trying to understand why Bitcoin feels heavy even when other risk assets find buyers, that detail matters.

The flow story has texture too, and the texture is where the people are. In mid-January, the spot Bitcoin ETF cohort took in roughly $760 million in a single day, the biggest one-day haul since October, with Fidelity’s FBTC making up a large chunk of that. It's not been a total washout but those good days have been far outnumbered by the bad days.

Still, a lot of the institutional story lives in these overlapping signals, steady lifetime accumulation alongside jagged bursts of selling, and sudden days where buyers look organized again.

The tricky part is deciding which signal speaks for the next month, and which signal speaks for the last month.

Macro still sets the temperatureSometimes the simplest driver sits outside the room.

In February, Reuters reported US equity funds saw net outflows of about $1.42 billion in the week to Feb. 11, tied to rate-cut uncertainty after a strong jobs report, plus anxiety around heavy corporate spending linked to AI. Bond funds, by contrast, pulled in money. That is a classic risk sorting moment, and Bitcoin tends to feel those moments more than it likes to admit.

Rates staying restrictive keeps portfolios picky, and it pushes investors toward cleaner stories. Bitcoin has fallen more than 40% from its October peak near $126,000 while stocks and precious metals found buyers, which tells you the market is treating Bitcoin like a liquidity-sensitive asset in this stretch.

Balchunas’ flow chart lands inside that backdrop. The cumulative number remains massive, and it arrived faster than most predictions, and the near-term tape shows how quickly conviction shifts when price slides.

Bitcoin ETFs impending slow deathThe latest AUM snapshot puts the combined total at $98.33B.

The centre of gravity is obvious, IBIT sits at $57.01 billion on its own, with FBTC at $13.94 billion and GBTC at $12.58 billion forming the next tier, then a cluster behind them with BITB at $5.79 billion and ARKB at $5.36 billion.

After that you can see the long tail where the numbers still matter, just in a different way, HODL is $1.37 billion, EZBC is $728.57 million, BTCO is $696.58 million, BTCW is $462.49 million, and BRRR is $398.00 million.

Bitcoin ETF AUMs (Source: NewHedge)That spread tells a human story as much as a market one, because it shows how quickly liquidity and trust concentrate when institutions decide a product is “the” default choice, and how everyone else has to fight for attention even while the whole category keeps growing.

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Given that since 10 October 2025, $8.66 billion has exited the ETFs, spread over the 89 trading days in that window, that works out at about $90 million leaving per trading day.

If you keep that pace constant and treat the current $98 billion AUM as the starting point, you get roughly 1,011 trading days until the wrappers are effectively drained.

Put in real terms, that’s about four years of weekday-sized bleeding before the ETF complex hits the wall in early January 2030, assuming nothing changes.

In reality, few would expect Bitcoin to avoid any sort of rally at all in the next four years. However, we could see sustained pressure throughout the bear market. So, let's look at where we could be if the bear market does not end before the next halving.

The next Bitcoin halving is estimated to be around 11 April 2028, which is about 558 trading days away from here, and that gives a useful horizon for stress-testing what “sticky” demand really looks like.

Using the same run-rate assumption, the maths leaves about $44 billion of AUM by the next halving.

Converting that into BTC depends on price, but at around a mid-$60k spot level for Bitcoin, it works out in the region of 662k BTC still sitting inside the wrappers.

However, if we take “no more BTC left in ETFs” as “cumulative net inflows grind down to zero,” things look even worse.

Using the post–Oct 10 outflow pace, then $53B / $90M = 590 trading days, which would be just after the halving, around mid-2028 (give or take depending on flows and holiday count).

What to watch nextThought experiment out of the way, start with looking at the daily ETF flow tape.

Outflows cooling into a flatter pattern often brings sentiment with it. Inflows stringing together for multiple sessions can change the headlines just as quickly. For a simple triangulation tool beyond major outlets, CoinGlass tracks ETF flows in one place, and it helps to see the rhythm of the tape.

Then watch CME participation. Open interest and activity stabilizing, then rising, usually means bigger players are putting risk back on in the cleanest US venue. CME’s own pages help you follow the direction of travel over time.

Keep an eye on the US-versus-offshore spread too. Coinbase printing a persistent discount to Binance strengthens the US selling signal. That discount narrowing points to pressure easing on the US side of the market.

Macro volatility remains the backdrop. Fund flow data offers a weekly pulse check on how nervous the biggest pools of capital feel. Rate-cut expectations swinging, equities wobbling, credit tightening, those shifts tend to travel through Bitcoin quickly.

This set of signals guarantees very little, and it offers a map for how the next chapter might read.

The real takeaway from this ETF chapter is that Bitcoin has a public scoreboard for institutional behavior, and that scoreboard has become part of the market itself.

When the number rises, it invites new believers. When the number falls, it invites new doubts. When the number stays positive over years, it rewrites the baseline, and it forces everyone to treat the Wall Street relationship as sticky.

So when we write articles saying ETF flows need to reverse soon, there's short-term relevance for the current bear market.

However, if they don't reverse at all, the entire narrative around Bitcoin will flip and things could get very ugly. Sustaining $53 to $98 billion in selling pressure is not something Bitcoin will handle lightly.

Mentioned in this articlePosted in

Bitcoin (BTC) has four new key support levels to watch as a fresh wave of bearish BTC price action aims to push the market price below $50,000.

Key points:

Bitcoin’s realized prices remain important milestones as the market forms a long-term floor.

Binance users’ deposit cost basis is next up as a safety net, says analysis.

Realized losses reach levels unseen since the end of the 2022 bear market.

BTC price analysis puts focus on Binance tradersNew analysis from Burak Kesmeci, a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, sees $58,700 as Bitcoin bulls’ next line in the sand.

“Which 4 levels am I watching in Bitcoin? 4 key realized price levels — essential for tracking the long-term trend in my view,” he wrote in one of CryptoQuant’s Quicktake blog posts on Wednesday, titled “Bitcoin’s Roadmap to the Bottom.”

Realized price refers to the aggregate cost basis of the BTC supply or a subset of it. When BTC moves onchain, its realized price becomes that at which it was last involved in a transaction.

Realized prices that involve larger groups of coins can often function as market support or resistance zones.

“Bitcoin has been dropping ever since it lost the New Whales' cost basis — a classic bear cycle signal,” Kesmeci noted.

Newer Bitcoin whales’ aggregate buy-in price stands at $88,700, but with the price now far below, three others are on the radar. Older whales’ realized price is the lowest of the selection at $41,600, while Bitcoin’s overall cost basis now sits at $54,700.

Between the current spot price and those two levels, however, lies the realized price for deposit addresses (UDA RP) on major global crypto exchange Binance.

“From here, the 2 key supports I'll be watching in order are Binance UDA RP and Bitcoin RP (58.7K and 54.7K),” Kesmeci added. 

“The reason: once Bitcoin falls below New Whales' cost basis, it historically tends to at least test the Realized Price. And the only support standing between here and there is 58.7K.” Bitcoin realized price data. Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin losses echo 2022 bear market bottomWhile panic selling from exchange users has cooled since BTC/USD rebounded from 15-month lows near $59,000 at the start of February, CryptoQuant data underscores the risk of further capitulation.

The proportion of the BTC supply currently held at an unrealized loss has reached 46%, its highest reading since the end of Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market.

“It is worth noting that the correction has been so severe that the increase in supply held at a loss has occurred very rapidly,” CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost commented on X during the $60,000 swing lows.

Last week, meanwhile, Darkfost reported similarly conspicuous levels of realized losses from Bitcoin investors — coins moving at a lower price than in their previous transaction.

“At its peak, on February 5, realized losses exceeded 30,000 BTC,” he confirmed. 

“This remains well below the extreme levels observed during the last bear market, when realized losses reached 92000 BTC and 80000 BTC on separate occasions. Nevertheless, it is still a clear sign that a capitulation phase has taken place.” Bitcoin realized profit and loss data. Source: Darkfost/XThis article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

Bitcoin price is compressing into a tightening triangle structure, signaling a major decision point as converging support and resistance suggest an imminent volatility expansion in the near term.

Summary

Triangle compression signals imminent breakout, volatility expansion approaching Higher lows indicate growing demand, favoring bullish resolution $76,700 resistance becomes key target, if breakout confirms with volume Bitcoin (BTC) price action has entered a constructive consolidation phase, forming a clear triangle pattern that reflects growing market equilibrium. After recent volatility, the price has entered a period of compression, with dynamic support and resistance continuing to narrow. This behavior often precedes significant directional movement, as markets rarely remain compressed for extended periods.

Triangle formations typically represent a balance between buyers and sellers before a decisive breakout occurs. In Bitcoin’s case, price remains inside the structure, meaning the breakout has not yet been confirmed. However, as the price approaches the apex of the triangle, the probability of a volatility expansion increases substantially.

The market is now nearing a macro decision point where momentum will likely return and determine Bitcoin’s next trend phase.

Bitcoin price key technical points Bitcoin trading inside a clear triangle formation, signaling compression Apex zone approaching, increasing breakout probability $76,700 high-timeframe resistance becomes upside target, if bullish break occurs BTCUSDT (2H) Chart, Source: TradingView The current triangle formation is defined by converging dynamic support and resistance aligned closely with the value area low and value area high. Each rejection from resistance and defense of support has gradually tightened price action, reducing volatility and forming a classic apex structure.

Such formations indicate that neither buyers nor sellers currently dominate the market. Instead, liquidity builds on both sides as participants wait for confirmation of direction. As compression increases, even modest momentum can trigger a sharp expansion once price escapes the pattern.

Importantly, Bitcoin has not yet broken out. Until a confirmed move occurs, price remains in consolidation rather than trend continuation.

Higher Lows Suggest Constructive Momentum One notable feature within the triangle is the development of higher lows forming near the value area low. These higher lows indicate that buyers are stepping in earlier on each pullback, gradually applying upward pressure on price.

While this does not guarantee a bullish breakout, it does suggest constructive underlying demand. Markets forming higher lows during consolidation often lean toward upside resolution, particularly when support continues to hold consistently.

This behavior reflects accumulation rather than distribution, strengthening the possibility of a bullish expansion once the triangle resolves.

Apex zone becomes the market decision point The apex of the triangle represents the most critical area in the current structure. As the price reaches this narrowing zone, the market is forced into a decision. Breakouts from triangle patterns frequently occur near the apex because the price has little room left to consolidate.

However, direction alone is not enough. Volume confirmation will be essential. A breakout accompanied by increasing volume would validate participation returning to the market and significantly improve the probability of sustained follow-through.

Without volume expansion, breakouts risk becoming false moves that quickly reverse back into the range.

Upside scenario targets $76,700 resistance If Bitcoin breaks to the upside with strong volume confirmation, attention shifts toward high-timeframe resistance near $76,700. This level represents a major technical objective and aligns with prior supply areas within the broader trading structure.

A successful breakout would signal the end of the consolidation phase and the beginning of a new expansion leg, potentially attracting momentum traders and renewed market participation.

What to expect in the coming price action From a technical, price-action, and market-structure perspective, Bitcoin is approaching a macro decision point. The triangle formation indicates compression, and compression almost always leads to expansion.

In the immediate short term, traders should expect increasing volatility as price interacts with the apex zone. A confirmed breakout supported by rising volume will likely dictate the next major move.

While higher lows favor a bullish resolution, confirmation remains essential. Until the breakout occurs, Bitcoin remains in consolidation, but the technical evidence suggests that a significant move is approaching rapidly.

The upcoming sessions are likely to define Bitcoin’s next directional trend as the market prepares for an imminent expansion of volatility.

TLDR Bitcoin has lost $1.2 trillion in market value over the past five months. Michael Saylor remains confident in Bitcoin’s future despite the market downturn. Saylor’s firm, Strategy, faces an unrealized loss of $7.2 billion due to Bitcoin’s price drop. Strategy has spent $4.09 billion on Bitcoin purchases this year alone. Despite the decline, Saylor continues to buy Bitcoin, showing his unwavering optimism. Bitcoin has seen substantial losses, shedding $1.2 trillion in market value over the past five months. The downturn has significantly impacted the crypto market, but Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor remains confident about Bitcoin’s future. Saylor continues to buy Bitcoin, despite his company’s unrealized losses from the ongoing market decline.

Bitcoin’s Massive Loss: A $1.2 Trillion Hit Since October 2025, Bitcoin has lost $1.2 trillion, a substantial portion of the crypto market’s total decline. The global cryptocurrency market has seen a total reduction of $2.02 trillion, with Bitcoin responsible for over half of this drop. The cryptocurrency’s market cap has fallen from $2.52 trillion at its peak in October 2025 to $1.32 trillion today.

This steep decline reflects the ongoing struggles Bitcoin faces in the current market. With the price now at $66,000, Bitcoin has seen a 48% drop from its all-time high of $126,000. Despite this, Bitcoin remains the largest digital asset in terms of market capitalization.

Saylor’s Bullish Stance Amid the Decline Despite Bitcoin’s massive losses, Michael Saylor remains unfazed, insisting that he is more bullish than ever. He maintains this positive outlook even as his firm, Strategy, faces an unrealized loss of $7.2 billion due to the price drop. “I’ve never been more bullish on Bitcoin than I am right now,” Saylor declared in a recent comment on X.

Saylor has been consistent in his belief that Bitcoin’s long-term potential remains strong. He has not altered his stance, even as analysts predict further declines in the crypto market. The Strategy Chairman’s continued optimism stands in contrast to the current bearish sentiment that dominates the market.

Strategy’s Continued Bitcoin Purchases Despite Losses Despite the ongoing market downturn, Strategy has been actively purchasing Bitcoin. This year alone, the company has spent $4.09 billion on Bitcoin acquisitions. Strategy has continued its buying spree even as Bitcoin has dropped 24% in value during the same period.

The firm’s most recent purchase was made on February 17, 2026, when it bought 2,486 BTC for $168.33 million. This followed two other Bitcoin purchases earlier in February, totaling 1,997 BTC. Saylor’s firm shows no sign of halting its Bitcoin accumulation strategy, even in the face of a prolonged downturn in the market.

The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.

Happy Thursday! Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at around $66,000, with weakening ETF demand, fragile accumulation, and defensive positioning pointing to a range-bound market between roughly $79,000 and the $54,900 realized price floor, according to analysts at Glassnode.

In today's newsletter, South Korean prosecutors recover $21 million worth of bitcoin stolen from their custody, Robinhood Chain's testnet generates four million transactions in its first week, DBA raises $68 million for its second venture fund, and more.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon revealed he owns a "very little" amount of bitcoin.

P.S. Don't forget to check out The Funding, a biweekly rundown of crypto VC trends. It's a great read — and just like The Daily, it's free to subscribe!

Hacker returns $21 million in stolen bitcoin to South Korean authorities South Korean prosecutors have recovered 320.8 BTC worth about $21.4 million after a hacker returned funds stolen from their custody, local media reported Thursday.

Investigators lost the bitcoin last August after entering recovery seed phrases on a phishing website during a probe into a gambling platform, but only discovered the loss in December. Authorities had blocked transactions to centralized exchanges from the hacker's wallet, limiting the ability to liquidate the stolen assets. Prosecutors have since moved the returned bitcoin to a local exchange for safekeeping and said they will continue efforts to track down the hacker's identity. The incident prompted a nationwide review of investigative agencies' management of seized digital assets after additional police reports revealed further missing bitcoin that was held in custody. Robinhood's Layer 2 testnet sees four million transactions in first week, CEO Vlad Tenev says Robinhood's Ethereum Layer 2 testnet processed four million transactions in the first week following its public launch, according to CEO Vlad Tenev.

The Arbitrum-based Robinhood Chain targets tokenized real-world assets and onchain financial services, including equities and ETFs. The permissionless network previously underwent six months of private testing and has already integrated key infrastructure partners, including Alchemy, LayerZero, and Chainlink. Robinhood plans to launch the mainnet later this year as part of its broader push into tokenization, including plans for round-the-clock trading and near-real-time settlement. Crypto investment firm DBA raises $68 million for its second venture fund DBA has raised $68 million for its second venture fund, expanding its capital base after launching a $50 million debut fund in 2023.

The New York-based firm, led by prominent Ethereum commentator Jon Charbonneau and former Galaxy Digital executive Michael Jordan, invests across early-stage and public crypto markets. DBA, short for "doing business as," has previously backed infrastructure and application projects, including Monad, DoubleZero, Payy, MetaDAO, and bitcoin scaling startup Alpen Labs. The firm said decentralized exchanges, ICO platforms, prediction markets, and impact markets represent key areas shaping the future of finance. Uniswap governance considers activating protocol fees on all v3 pools, expanding to eight additional chains Uniswap governance launched a temp check to expand protocol fees across all v3 pools and eight additional chains, including Arbitrum, Base, Celo, OP Mainnet, Soneium, X Layer, Worldchain, and Zora.

The proposal would introduce a tier-based mechanism to automatically apply fees across all remaining v3 pools, significantly expanding Uniswap's protocol revenue capture. The system would route fees through TokenJar contracts and burn them as UNI on the Ethereum mainnet. The vote marks the first major fee expansion under the new UNIfication governance framework. CME Group to launch 24/7 crypto futures and options trading on May 29 CME Group plans to launch 24/7 bitcoin and ether futures and options trading on May 29, pending regulatory approval.

CME's Tim McCourt said client demand for crypto risk management has reached "an all-time high," with a record $3 trillion in notional volume traded across its cryptocurrency futures and options in 2025. "While not all markets lend themselves to operating 24/7, providing always-on access to our regulated, transparent cryptocurrency products ensures clients can manage their exposure and trade with confidence at any time," he said. In the next 24 hours U.S. GDP and PCE data are due at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. U.S. FOMC member Raphael Bostic will speak at 9:45 a.m. LayerZero, Wormhole, and KAITO are among the crypto projects set for token unlocks. ETHDenver continues in Colorado. Never miss a beat with The Block's daily digest of the most influential events happening across the digital asset ecosystem.

Disclaimer: This article was produced with the assistance of OpenAI’s ChatGPT/xAI’s Grok and reviewed and edited by our editorial team.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

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TLDR Peter Brandt rejects the idea of a gold-to-Bitcoin rotation, questioning its certainty and predictability. Brandt has expressed his skepticism on Bitcoin’s price movements, arguing that they don’t follow historical patterns. He points out that Bitcoin’s downside risk remains active unless it reclaims the $93,000 level. Brandt has identified a broadening top formation and completed bear channel in Bitcoin’s chart. Macro factors such as ETF inflows and Federal Reserve policies complicate Bitcoin’s price outlook. This week, a widely shared chart predicted that capital flows from gold would soon rotate into Bitcoin, based on past cycles. The theory suggests that as gold’s record-high profits consolidate, funds will shift to Bitcoin, boosting its price. Veteran trader Peter Brandt rejected this outlook, expressing skepticism about the certainty behind such projections.

Brandt Critiques Gold-to-Bitcoin Rotation Hypothesis The “gold-to-Bitcoin” rotation theory argues that capital typically shifts from gold to higher-risk assets like Bitcoin after periods of macroeconomic stress. Proponents of the theory point to the historical pattern where gold rallies during uncertainty, followed by Bitcoin capturing inflows as risk appetite returns. Gold is currently trading at a near-record high of $4,983 per ounce, providing a backdrop for this argument.

Despite the bullish narrative, Peter Brandt, a veteran futures trader, dismisses this theory. Brandt, who has traded commodities for over 50 years, expressed his skepticism on X with a simple thumbs-down emoji. His critique stems from the belief that Bitcoin’s price movements do not follow predictable rotations like gold’s, often invalidating widely accepted chart patterns.

Brandt’s Current Stance on Bitcoin’s Price Action Brandt has remained cautious on Bitcoin throughout early 2026, despite its proximity to $66,500. The cryptocurrency has seen a steep decline from its January highs around $92,000. Brandt’s analysis focuses more on Bitcoin’s price structure rather than the narratives surrounding it.

Previously, Brandt identified a broadening top formation and a completed bear channel in Bitcoin’s chart. These patterns indicate a continued downside risk unless Bitcoin reclaims the $93,000 level. According to Brandt, the potential for a bottoming out extends into October 2026, with a price range between $50,000 and $62,000.

Bitcoin’s outlook is further complicated by macroeconomic variables that influence capital flows. ETF inflows, Federal Reserve policies, and global debt refinancing are all critical factors impacting market sentiment. Unlike gold, which has benefited from safe-haven demand, Bitcoin’s appeal as a store of value is still evolving in the current environment.

Brandt’s view underscores the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s future price movements. He warns that consensus-driven interpretations and chart patterns in crypto markets often fail to account for the unpredictable nature of Bitcoin’s price action.

TL;DR

Base will transition off Optimism’s OP Stack to a unified base/base codebase, targeting six hard forks per year and predictable upgrades. OP fell about 23% in 24 hours, hit $0.140, and hovered near $0.143 as traders repriced Optimism’s ecosystem role. Shorts near $7.9 million skewed derivatives bearish, even as whales added 60 million OP worth about $8.43 million; next support is $0.119, reclaiming $0.181 would help materially. Base’s pivot away from Optimism’s OP Stack jolted the market, with OP sliding about 23% in 24 hours after Base confirmed the shift publicly and setting a new all-time low. The market takeaway is that ecosystem reliance is being repriced in real time. OP traded near $0.143 after briefly touching $0.140, extending a fragile downtrend that had already been weighed down by weak liquidity and souring sentiment. For investors, the question is straightforward: how much of Optimism’s narrative was tethered to Base’s growth, and what demand remains without that catalyst?

Base abandons OP Stack, accelerates upgrade cadence now Base said it will move to a unified in-house technology stack, rolling core components like the sequencer and client releases into a single codebase called base/base. The operating goal is faster, more predictable upgrades with fewer dependencies. The team plans six smaller hard forks per year, double the prior pace, and framed the shift as simpler for developers and easier to manage for node operators. Base said it will stay compatible during the transition and expects no immediate disruptions for users, while still working with Optimism via OP Enterprise support.

The selloff also exposed positioning under the hood. Derivatives are leaning bearish, even as whales keep buying. On charts, the token sank nearly 20% after the announcement too. A liquidation map showed OP contracts heavily skewed toward shorts, with short exposure around $7.9 million. At the same time, wallets holding 1 million to 10 million OP added 60 million tokens over the past month, worth about $8.43 million at current prices. Analysts warned that macro uncertainty and reduced risk appetite have limited how much that accumulation can stabilize price action.

With OP down 61% from its 2026 peak, the technical roadmap looks unforgiving. The near-term line is $0.140, with $0.119 next if support fails. A reclaim of $0.181 as support would challenge the immediate bearish thesis, but futures traders appear positioned to defend downside momentum. Base, meanwhile, said it will strengthen decentralization by upgrading its Security Council and adding new signers, with enhanced security, zero-knowledge work, and better data availability planned as node operators prepare to adopt the new client. For Optimism holders, execution risk is as important as vision.

CME Group (NASDAQ:CME) will launch 24/7 cryptocurrency futures and options trading starting May 29, closing the timing gap between regulated derivatives and always-on crypto markets as CME is trading flat after breaking out to new highs. The 24/7 Launch CME will offer continuous trading on Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) futures and options starting May 29 at 4:00 p.m.

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BTC price slipped today after fresh U.S. labor data showed fewer layoffs than expected, shaking rate-cut hopes. Initial jobless claims fell to 206,000 for the week ending February 14, the lowest level this year and far below forecasts of 223,000.

BTC Price Drops After Jobless Claims Drop BTC price dipped lower soon after the jobless claims release. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $66,160, down by 1.80% in the past 24 hours. The decline followed a broader pullback already underway from Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes. 

Source: TradingView; Bitcoin Daily Chart Bitcoin had fallen below the psychological $66,000 level after the FOMC minutes yesterday, with the Fed raising the possibility of a rate hike. That earlier drop set a weaker tone going into Thursday’s session, leaving BTC price vulnerable to another negative catalyst. 

Notably, the labor data added to concerns that inflation risks could keep rates higher for longer. As a result, Bitcoin extended its decline instead of stabilizing. Initial jobless claims fell from last week’s 227,000 reading, a 23,000 drop. 

This comes well below another estimate that placed expectations at 225,000. However, continuing claims rose slightly to 1.869 million, suggesting some workers still faced longer job searches.

What Does Lower Claims Mean for the Crypto Market Lower-than-expected initial jobless claims often point to a labor market with fewer layoffs and stronger employer demand. In this case, the data indicated that the U.S. economy remains resilient. 

As a result, the numbers reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve needs to cut rates quickly, which is bearish for the BTC price. That matters for crypto markets because rate cuts typically support risk assets through cheaper borrowing and stronger liquidity. 

However, a stronger labor report can push bond yields higher and lift the U.S. dollar. Those moves can increase the opportunity cost of holding assets like Bitcoin, which do not generate yield.

Notably, traders often interpret “good” economic news as negative for crypto when it delays easing policy. The jobless claims surprise added to that dynamic, especially as markets were still taking in the FOMC minutes. In addition to these macro data, Bitcoin’s price is also facing downward pressure due to the rising U.S. Iran tensions, with a potential military action on the cards.

Expert Views and Saylor’s Bitcoin Conviction Following the report, analyst Lark Davis pointed to the split between initial and continuing claims. He noted that initial jobless claims came in below expectations. Davis argued that rising continuing claims could indicate workers are struggling to find new jobs.

He added that weaker labor conditions could eventually push the Fed toward rate cuts, which often support risk assets. However, he also raised questions about whether the Fed would move fast enough if conditions deteriorate.

Just minutes after the jobless claims release, MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor continued his Bitcoin support. He wrote, “Never Been More ₿ullish,” despite the market reaction and BTC price weakness.

Why Trust CoinGape

CoinGape has covered the cryptocurrency industry since 2017, aiming to provide informative insights to our readers. Our journal analysts bring years of experience in market analysis and blockchain technology to ensure factual accuracy and balanced reporting. By following our Editorial Policy, our writers verify every source, fact-check each story, rely on reputable sources, and attribute quotes and media correctly. We also follow a rigorous Review Methodology when evaluating exchanges and tools. From emerging blockchain projects and coin launches to industry events and technical developments, we cover all facets of the digital asset space with unwavering commitment to timely, relevant information.

Crypto prices pulled back on Thursday as geopolitical risks rose, with odds that Donald Trump will attack Iran moving higher. Pi Network price erased some of the earlier gains, moving to a low of $0.1810, down from this week’s high of $0.2060. Other tokens like Solana and Bitcoin also retreated. This article provides a prediction for these tokens and what to expect.

Trump’s Odds of Attacking Iran are Soaring  One of the top risks facing the crypto market is the potential for a new war in the Middle East. Data compiled by Polymarket shows that the odds of Trump attacking Iran before March 31st rose to 61%. Similarly, odds of an attack happening before June 30 and December 31 rose to 71% and 78%, respectively.

US Attack Iran Odds These odds have jumped after Trump sent the biggest military deployment since the attack on Iraq to the Middle East. Also, the US and other countries have asked their citizens to leave Iran as soon as possible.

A Trump attack on Iran is bad for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Solana, and Pi Network because their role as safe-haven assets has largely been invalidated in the past few months. Bitcoin has constantly dropped whenever new risks emerged, including last year when Trump announced new global tariffs.

Additionally, an attack on Iran will lead to higher crude oil prices and inflation, making it hard for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Indeed, Fed minutes released on Wednesday showed that some Fed officials expect to hike interest rates if inflation remains at an elevated level.

Pi Network Price Prediction: Technical Analysis  Pi Coin price has done well in the past few weeks and is outperforming Bitcoin and other top coins like XRP and Ethereum. It jumped from a low of $0.1300 on February 6 to a high of $0.2057 on Saturday. 

Pi Network has moved above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and flipped the Supertrend indicator from red to green, which is a common bullish sign.

The two lines of the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) indicator have continued rising, while its histogram has moved above the zero line.

Therefore, the coin will likely remain under pressure in the next few days as investors wait for a potential US strike on Iran. The bearish Pi Coin price forecast will become invalid if it moves above this week’s high of $0.2057.

Pi Network price Bitcoin Price Prediction: Technical Analysis  The daily timeframe chart shows that the Bitcoin price remains under pressure this week. Like Pi, it has slumped below the Supertrend indicator and all moving averages.

Bitcoin has also formed a bearish pennant pattern, which is made up of a vertical line and a symmetrical triangle sign. With the two lines nearing their confluence, there is a likelihood that the coin will crash, potentially to the key support level at $60,000

Bitcoin price Solana Price Prediction The daily chart shows that the Solana price has been in a steep downward trend this year. It has dropped in the past four consecutive days as geopolitical risks have jumped.

The coin dropped below the key support level at $95, its lowest level in April last year. It has remained below all moving averages and is now forming a bearish pennant pattern.

Solana price Therefore, the most likely Solana price forecast is bearish, with the initial target being the year-to-date low of $67.

A drop below that level will confirm more downside, potentially to the key support level at $50. In the future, however, the token will bounce back and possibly retest the key resistance level at $100.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) The most likely Pi Network price forecast is bearish as geopolitical risks rise, with the possibility of an attack rising.

Bitcoin has formed a bearish pennant pattern, which is made up of a vertical line and a symmetrical triangle. This pattern means that it will likely have a strong bearish breakdown.

There are rising signs that the United States will attack Iran in the coming days or weeks as the military buildup continues.

XRP ETFs have failed to regain momentum amid prolonged crypto market volatility, consistently recording little-to-no capital intake in recent days.

Following slow performances seen across all XRP funds, the U.S. spot XRP ETFs have logged another day of net outflows for the fifth time since they launched in November 2025.

XRP ETFs record lowest outflow everAccording to data from SosoValue, the poor performance seen during the last trading session saw XRP ETFs record a total net outflow of $2.21 million as of Feb. 18.

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Source: SosoValue Notably, this marks the fifth and lowest capital withdrawal ever recorded by the XRP funds. This suggests that institutional investors are yet to regain their confidence in the future outlook of these funds, as the broad market sell-off continues to intensify.

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Although XRP ETFs have seen larger amount of capital exit their funds in the past, this withdrawal has caught the attention of market participants as it positions the price of XRP for more downward pressure despite recent recovery attempts.

XRP dips 5%As usual, the poor performances seen across the XRP funds appear to have been triggered by increased selling pressure faced by XRP and other leading cryptocurrencies.

Amid the prolonged volatility, XRP has continued to show weak price movements, and the asset has plunged by 5.28% over the last day, trading at $1.39 as of writing time.

Source: CoinMarketCap While all XRP funds saw zero activity except for Grayscale — which single-handedly incurred the $2.21 million withdrawal recorded during the last 24-hour trading period — it appears that institutional investors are taking caution as XRP continues to fail every attempt to break past $1.70 and reclaim its position around $2.00.

Ethereum ETFs Break 4-Week Outflow Streak — Can ETH Price Finally Recover? Prefer us on Google

ETF inflows return, but another force is quietly limiting Ethereum’s upsideWhales buy aggressively as Ethereum price tests a decisive breakout zoneA familiar signal hints at a bounce, but history shows a hidden riskEthereum has finally broken a four-week streak of continuous ETF outflows. The week ending February 18 recorded inflows, marking the first sign of returning institutional demand. At the same time, whale wallets have started accumulating again. Yet long-term holders continue selling into every Ethereum price bounce.

This creates a direct conflict that could decide whether Ethereum’s price recovery continues or stalls.

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ETF Outflow Streak Ends as Whale Accumulation BeginsEthereum spent four straight weeks under consistent institutional selling pressure. Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows in the weeks ending January 23, January 30, February 6, and February 13. This sustained selling reflected weak institutional confidence and coincided with Ethereum’s broader price decline.

That trend has now changed. The week ending February 18 saw a net inflow of $6.80 million. This shift suggests institutional selling pressure has paused, at least temporarily. When ETF flows turn positive after extended outflows, it often signals early stages of stabilization. However, the inflow figures are still weak and not at par with the outflow strength, yet.

Ethereum ETFs: SoSo ValueWant more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

At the same time, whale accumulation has returned. Data shows wallets holding large amounts of Ethereum increased their holdings from 113.50 million ETH on February 15 to 113.63 million ETH currently. This represents an increase of 130,000 ETH. At the current price, this equals roughly $253 million worth of Ethereum accumulated in just a few days.

Ethereum Whales: SantimentWhale accumulation during weakness is important because large investors often position early before broader recoveries begin. However, this growing optimism faces resistance from another group of investors.

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Ethereum Price Flashes Bullish Divergence, But Long-Term Holders Continue SellingEthereum’s 8-hour chart shows a key momentum signal that has historically preceded price bounces.

Between February 2 and February 18, Ethereum’s price formed a lower low. This means the price dropped below its previous support level. But during the same period, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed a higher low. The RSI measures buying and selling strength and this pattern is called bullish divergence.

This signal has already proven effective twice earlier this month. The first bullish divergence formed between February 2 and February 11. Ethereum’s price then rallied 11%. The second divergence appeared between February 2 and February 15. This led to another 6% recovery.

Bullish Divergence Spotted: TradingViewBoth these ETH bounces happened while ETF outflows were still ongoing, showing that buyers were already attempting to regain control. Now, ETF inflows have returned, and whales are accumulating. This increases the probability that another bounce attempt could happen.

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However, long-term holders are moving in the opposite direction. The Hodler Net Position Change measures whether long-term holders are accumulating or selling. A negative value means long-term holders are distributing their holdings.

On February 17, long-term holders sold 34,841 ETH over the rolling 30-day period. By February 18, that number increased to 38,877 ETH. This represents a sharp increase in selling pressure in just one day, even as bullish divergence signals appeared.

Holders Keep Selling: GlassnodeThis shows long-term holders are using price strength to exit positions. The same behavior was visible during earlier February rallies. Both previous bounces failed to sustain upward momentum because long-term holder selling capped the recovery.

This creates a clear conflict. Whale accumulation and ETF inflows support recovery, while long-term holder selling limits upside potential, hinting at a clear risk. This conflict is now reflected directly in Ethereum’s price structure.

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Triangle Pattern Reveals Critical LevelsEthereum is currently trading inside a symmetrical triangle pattern on the 8-hour chart. This pattern forms when the price moves between converging support and resistance lines.

A symmetrical triangle represents balance between buyers and sellers. In Ethereum’s case, buyers include whales and institutional investors returning through ETF inflows. Sellers include long-term holders distributing their positions.

This balance explains why Ethereum remains stuck in consolidation.

The first key resistance level sits near $2,030. This level stopped the previous recovery attempt. A successful move above this level would signal strengthening momentum and also confirm the triangle breakout. The next major resistance stands at $2,100, another bounce blocker. Breaking this level would confirm a stronger recovery and could open the path higher.

Ethereum Price Analysis: TradingViewHowever, downside risks remain. Immediate reclaim level sits at $1,960. Failure to hold this level could push Ethereum down to $1,890. A deeper decline could extend toward $1,740 if selling pressure accelerates.

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The Ethereum Foundation’s protocol track leads published a new “Protocol Priorities Update for 2026” on Feb. 18, outlining how core R&D will be organized this year and what the next upgrade cycle is expected to emphasize.

The update looks back at 2025 as a high-throughput year for mainnet changes, anchored by two network upgrades. Pectra shipped in May, Fusaka followed in December with PeerDAS on mainnet. Alongside those upgrades, the community increased the mainnet gas limit from 30 million to 60 million, calling it the first significant jump since 2021.

The main change is organizational. “Now that those milestones are behind us, we have the opportunity to think about how we organize our work at a slightly higher level,” the authors wrote. For 2026, Protocol work is grouped into three tracks: Scale, Improve UX, and Harden the L1, each with named leads.

The Scale track, led by Ansgar Dietrichs, Marius van der Wijden, and Raúl Kripalani, merges last year’s “Scale L1” and “Scale Blobs” initiatives into one effort. The foundation frames this as a pragmatic consolidation, because execution capacity, networking, and consensus changes tend to land in the same client code and influence each other.

On the roadmap, the update highlights continued gas limit increases “toward and beyond 100M,” supported by block-level access lists via EIP-7928 and ongoing client benchmarking. It also flags “the scaling components of Glamsterdam,” including enshrined PBS through EIP-7732, repricings, and further blob parameter increases.

Beyond that, the Scale track includes pushing a zkEVM attester client from prototype toward production readiness, and longer-run state scaling work that spans near-term repricing and history expiry through to binary trees and statelessness.

The Improve UX track, led by Barnabé Monnot and Matt Garnett, narrows in on two areas the foundation calls the most leverage for 2026 usability: native account abstraction and interoperability.

On account abstraction, the update positions EIP-7702 as a step toward an endpoint where smart contract wallets become the default without bundlers, relayers, or extra gas overhead. It points to proposals including EIP-7701 and EIP-8141, described as “Frame Transactions,” as work that moves smart account logic deeper into the protocol itself.

That UX roadmap is also tied to security direction. The foundation argues native account abstraction provides a cleaner migration path away from ECDSA-based authentication, and says parallel proposals aim to make quantum-resistant signature verification meaningfully cheaper inside the EVM.

Interoperability work builds on the Open Intents Framework with the stated goal of “seamless, trust-minimized cross-L2 interactions,” supported by faster L1 confirmations and shorter L2 settlement times.

The new Harden the L1 track, led by Fredrik Svantes, Parithosh Jayanthi, and Thomas Thiery, is framed as insurance policy work that preserves Ethereum’s core properties while scaling continues.

The update ties security efforts to Svantes’ Trillion Dollar Security Initiative, including post-quantum readiness and execution-layer safeguards like post-execution transaction assertions and “trustless RPCs.”

On censorship resistance, Thiery’s scope includes FOCIL via EIP-7805 and extensions that touch censorship resistance for blobs, statelessness work labeled VOPS, and the development of measurable censorship-resistance metrics. Jayanthi’s remit covers devnets, testnets, and client interoperability testing, which the foundation says becomes more critical if Ethereum moves into a faster fork cadence.

Looking ahead, the foundation targets Glamsterdam for the first half of 2026, with Hegotá planned later in the year. The stated ambition bundles parallel execution, significantly higher gas limits, enshrined PBS, continued blob scaling, and progress on censorship resistance, native account abstraction, and post-quantum security, with more track-level updates promised as the year unfolds.

At press time, Ethereum traded at $1,968.

Ethereum remains below the 200-week EMA, 1-week chart | Source: ETHUSDT on TradingView.com Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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The price of Bitcoin is on a roller coaster-like ride today, with the price bouncing in the $67,000-$65,000 range, and while cryptocurrency proponents like Michael Saylor say they have "never been more bullish," a long-standing critic of the digital asset, Peter Schiff, reiterated his stance in a new X post. 

What makes Schiff's new statement about Bitcoin surprising is his admission that he underestimated the amount of "dumb" money willing to buy Bitcoin. In his sarcastic manner, he wishes he "were smart enough" to realize how big the greed and fear of missing out (FOMO) would be. 

$126K miscalculation by Peter Schiff and "dumb money" winIt is important to note that the ex-banker did not abandon his view that Bitcoin lacks intrinsic value. On the contrary, he concedes that he misjudged the scale of speculative participation that would drive the cryptocurrency's price from as low as $1, when he first became aware of BTC, to as high as $126,198. 

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It is the early buyers who triggered a rally that compelled even skeptics to reconsider, creating a feedback loop fueled by rising prices and investor psychology, says Schiff.

I wish I were smart enough to have realized how many people would be dumb enough to buy Bitcoin when I first learned about it. Because so many were dumb enough, the price rose so high that others who were also too smart felt dumb and bought it too. Then greed and FOMO kicked in.

— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) February 19, 2026 If one were to argue with Schiff, they would say that despite repeated corrections by 70% and more, the asset is now present in spot exchange-traded funds in the United States, deep derivatives markets — CME for example — and expanding institutional custody infrastructure, elements absent during Bitcoin’s early years when the expert first criticized it.

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Still, as of the middle of February 2026, Bitcoin continues to sideways chop between $71,000 and $60,000 after a sell-off earlier this month. Given the current price action, it is evident that the criticism and "bearish" rhetoric toward Bitcoin right now is more "fashionable," and thus Schiff is too, than during the latest round of price appreciation.

OM, Mantra’s native token, is in the middle of an unlikely rally, rising more than 45% in the last seven days. 

The market-defying rally comes amid potential delisting from the Hyperliquid exchange market, a consequence of the recent rebranding of the protocol, as it moves from an ERC-20-based token to an independent Layer 1 blockchain.

Source: CoinMarketCap The token suffered a massive drop in April 2025 in a matter of minutes, eventually causing top exchanges like KuCoin to delist token pairs. However, the sudden increase suggests that investors are not moved by the turbulence and back the protocol’s position and regulatory compliance.

When will Hyperliquid vote to delist Mantra’s OM token? Hyperliquid validators are scheduled to vote on the delisting of the OM token on February 23, 2026. The voting will make use of the platform’s new on-chain voting system, added earlier this year, allowing permissionless stake-based delisting decisions that kick in immediately when a quorum is reached. 

With the new voting system, once enough validators decide to remove an asset, the asset’s trading contracts are closed using the last average market price before it is removed. 

Once the token is removed, all active trades are automatically settled, and all open orders on the token are canceled. After the decision is finalized, traders will be given an hour to close their positions themselves or leave them to be closed automatically. 

The vote takes place just as Mantra is undergoing major changes in its ecosystem, which has caused other major exchanges like KuCoin to delist the OM token effective on February 20. 

Additionally, Digitalexchange.id also made similar moves in December 2025, informing users to close their positions by January 15. 

Why is Mantra rebranding?  Mantra’s rebrand was inspired by its switch from a multi-chain DeFi platform to an independent Layer 1 blockchain dedicated to real-world asset tokenization. The project is switching from its Ethereum-based ERC-20 OM tokens to its native MANTRA token, introducing a 1:4 token split to ensure no one loses asset value on the transition. 

The move (initially set for January 19) was pushed back to March 2 for exchanges to complete their system integrations and allow the project to complete security checks on its smart contracts. 

This allows users who hold OM as an ERC-20 token to convert it using the Mantra bridge portal. On the other hand, users who already hold the OM token on the Mantra don’t need to bother, as the token will be automatically converted. 

OM rising despite delisting risks  The price movement may be regarded as investors’ belief in Mantra’s future plans and regulatory compliance since securing its VASP license from Dubai’s VARA. Investors on that side of the aisle believe that Mantra’s key value outweighs the short-term risks from being removed from a couple of exchanges. 

For Hyperliquid, the validator vote is a test of how well decentralized governance actually works. The vote allows users who have a stake in the outcome to choose what works best for the system. 

Whatever is decided shows how well community-led platforms deal with controversial assets.

Whichever way the result goes, Mantra’s strong surge while facing possible delisting suggests that certain investors have more faith in its long-term strategy than in the short-term exchange benefits.

Shiba Inu trades at $0.00000617, down 5.34% over the past 24 hours. Price struggles below mid-band resistance as RSI signals weak momentum, and open interest remains subdued.

Prediction markets now price a 28% chance Bitcoin falls to $60,000 before the month ends, with recovery above $80,000 given just a 5% probability.

The numbers are stark. Polymarket betting activity suggests the recovery case has essentially collapsed.

What makes the picture particularly telling are the red arrows on the page: the $80,000 probability has fallen 44% and $75,000 by 38%, suggesting bettors have been aggressively revising down their expectations as Bitcoin has slid.

Investors have rotated into traditional havens, lifting the US dollar and oil prices. That shift has tightened financial conditions and pressured speculative assets, leaving bitcoin vulnerable to further downside.

Reports that Washington has amassed significant air power in the Middle East, with military assets expected to be in place by mid-March, have heightened fears of possible strikes on Iran.

Bitcoin is now on track for a fifth straight weekly loss, its longest run of declines in years, taking it below $67,000.

The token remains nearly 50% below its October 2025 peak above $126,000, with momentum subdued as traders await clearer signals on geopolitics and the broader macro backdrop.

Ethereum developers plan major protocol changes in 2026, combining scaling, security hardening, and UX improvements following last year's network upgrades.

The Ethereum Foundation said it will prioritize post-quantum security and further increases to the gas limit as part of its protocol roadmap for 2026.

The organization is also restructuring its development efforts into three core tracks covering scaling, user experience, and Layer 1 security.

Three-Track Protocol Overhaul On Wednesday, the Foundation said Ethereum’s next phase will focus on expanding network capacity while ensuring long-term security and resilience. Gas limit increases also remain a central objective, following a rise from 30 million to 60 million over the past year. Developers are now targeting a move toward and beyond 100 million gas per block.

Post-quantum readiness was identified as a crucial consideration across multiple areas of protocol development, amidst growing attention to cryptographic security as quantum computing capabilities advance. The Foundation said its protocol work in 2026 will be organized into three tracks – Scale, Improve UX, and Harden the L1.

The “Scale” track combines work previously split between Layer 1 execution scaling and blob data availability. This track will oversee continued gas limit increases supported by client benchmarking and block-level access lists, further blob parameter increases following recent upgrades, and delivery of scaling components planned for the Glamsterdam network upgrade. It will also advance state scaling efforts, including near-term repricing and history expiry, and longer-term plans for statelessness and new data structures.

The “Improve UX” track will focus on protocol-level changes that aim to simplify how users interact with Ethereum. Focus will also be on native account abstraction and interoperability. Building on EIP-7702, which allows externally owned accounts to temporarily execute smart contract code, developers are working toward making smart contract wallets the default without relying on additional infrastructure or incurring extra gas overhead.

The Foundation said this work also intersects with post-quantum readiness, as native account abstraction provides a pathway for transitioning away from ECDSA-based authentication. Efforts to improve interoperability will continue through the Open Intents Framework, in addition to progress on faster Layer 1 confirmations and shorter Layer 2 settlement times.

You may also like: Crypto Funds See 4th Week of Outflows, but XRP and SOL Shine: CoinShares Report XRP Leads Altcoin Inflows While Bitcoin Investment Products Struggle Panic Selling Grips Ethereum: ETH Movements Hit Peak Levels Since Last August The “Harden the L1” track introduces a dedicated focus on preserving Ethereum’s core properties as the network scales. This includes security initiatives such as post-quantum readiness and execution-layer safeguards, research into censorship resistance for transactions and blob data, and expanded testing infrastructure to support a faster upgrade cadence. The Foundation said work on devnets, testnets, and client interoperability will remain critical as protocol changes are deployed more frequently.

Looking Ahead Meanwhile, Glamsterdam is targeted for the first half of 2026, according to the update shared by the Ethereum Foundation. Additionally, the Hegotá upgrade is planned for later in the year.

These upgrades are expected to include higher gas limits, continued blob scaling, enshrined proposer-builder separation, and further progress on native account abstraction, censorship resistance, and post-quantum security.

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SG-FORGE deployed its euro stablecoin EUR CoinVertible on the XRP Ledger, expanding its presence beyond Ethereum and Solana. The stablecoin has a circulating supply of approximately €65.8 million and is backed 1 to 1 by cash deposits or high-quality securities. Ripple will provide the custody infrastructure for the launch. Additionally, the stablecoin could be integrated as collateral in trading operations. SG-FORGE, the digital assets unit of Societe Generale, deployed its euro stablecoin EUR CoinVertible on the XRP Ledger, making it the third blockchain in its multichain framework after previously integrating Ethereum and Solana. Ripple’s ledger has become a reference institutional platform for regulated digital assets in Europe.

EUR CoinVertible is issued under French digital asset regulation and backed 1 to 1 by cash deposits or high-quality securities. With a circulating supply of approximately €65.8 million, according to CoinGecko data, it ranks among the highest-volume euro stablecoins on the market, trailing only Circle’s EURC.

SG-FORGE justified its choice of the XRP Ledger based on its low transaction costs and settlement speed. Ripple will provide the custody infrastructure for the launch. According to SG-FORGE’s official statement, the possibility of incorporating EUR CoinVertible into Ripple’s payment products and using it as collateral in trading operations will also be explored.

XRP Ledger Attracts European Banking The XRP Ledger is going through a pivotal moment. The network’s validators are voting on new technical improvements, including the Permissioned DEX, a feature designed to create controlled trading environments where only pre-approved participants can operate. This type of mechanism responds to the compliance requirements that regulated financial firms demand in order to integrate into blockchain infrastructure.

Cassie Craddock, Managing Director for the UK and Europe at Ripple, highlighted in the statement that “Societe Generale-FORGE has long been a pioneer among European institutions in building a market-leading digital asset offering.” Craddock also underscored Ripple’s role as a long-term infrastructure provider for SG-FORGE.

For the crypto ecosystem, this integration is a highly significant signal: XRPL breaks from its traditional model and moves beyond cross-border payments, stepping into the settlement of tokenized assets, digital deposits and regulated on-chain finance.

Sharplink (SBET), the Ethereum (ETH) treasury company backed by Consensys, now holds 867,798 ETH, valued at approximately $1.68 billion, as of Feb. 15.

That total figure includes 225,429 ETH if redeemed from the liquid staking token LsETH and 55,137 ETH if redeemed from ether.fi’s wrapped WeETH, according to a press release on Thursday. The firm has also generated 13,615 ETH in staking rewards in under a year, "all of which have accrued to stockholders."

These staking rewards include 4,560 ETH from staking directly on Ethereum, and 8,906 tokens as-if redeemed LsETH staking rewards and 149 as-if redeemed WeETH staking rewards, the firm notes.

"Sharplink stakes nearly 100% of its ETH holdings and has staked our holdings since the beginning," Joseph Chalom, Sharplink CEO who joined from BlackRock, said on Thursday. "Even during volatile markets, we continue growing our ETH concentration per share. No matter the price of the underlying asset, institutions know they can trust us to keep generating long-term value for our stockholders."

Additionally, the firm notes that institutional ownership of Sharplink’s common stock has grown to 46% as of Dec. 31, according to the latest available Form 13F filings. During the fourth quarter of 2025, Sharplink added approximately 60 new institutional investors, according to the announcement.

"This record level of institutional ownership confirms that sophisticated investors want disciplined execution and institutional-grade risk management," Chalom said.

Sharplink launched amid the boom in so-called digital asset treasuries last year, with backing from prominent Ethereum R&D firm Consensys. The firm is the second-largest Ethereum treasury, according to The Block’s data, though other firms like Galaxy Digital and Bullish, which are not pure-play ETH holders, hold more tokens.

Crypto treasuries have taken a beating, and several Ethereum-focused firms have diversified away from pure token accumulation. ETHZilla, for instance, has leaned into tokenization. Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund fully divested its 7.5% stake in ETHZilla, according to a financial filing this week.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

© 2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

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BitMine acquired 35,000 additional ETH in a single day, bringing its total reserves to 4.37 million ETH valued at approximately $9.6 billion. BMNR shares fell more than 8% since February 13 and broke below the lower support of a bearish pattern that projects a 50% extension. The correlation between BMNR and Ethereum rose from 0.50 to 0.52, turning the asset into a direct proxy for ETH’s performance. BitMine Immersion Technologies continues to expand its Ethereum treasury. The company founded by analyst Tom Lee acquired 35,000 ETH in two batches during a single trading session, raising its total holdings to 4.37 million ETH.

With combined reserves in cash and crypto assets totaling around $9.6 billion, the firm has become one of the largest corporate ETH treasuries in the market. However, its shares (BMNR) responded negatively: they fell nearly 2% in the last 24 hours and have accumulated a decline of more than 8% since February 13. An aggressive purchase of this scale is typically interpreted as a signal of long-term bullish conviction. In this case, the market did not respond as would be expected.

BitMine (BMNR) Breaks Support: What Is Happening? The technical analysis of Bitmine’s shares shows that the price broke below the lower boundary of a pattern known as a bear flag, a formation that develops after a sharp decline followed by a weak recovery. When that support gives way, the technical structure suggests that the pullback may extend further. In this case, the pattern’s projection points to a potential decline of more than 50% if selling pressure continues. The key levels to monitor are the support around $15 and, if that floor gives way, the next zones at $12 and $9. A recovery would require reclaiming $21 as a first step and surpassing $29 to confirm a genuine bullish reversal.

Ethereum Sets the Pace for BMNR Capital flow indicators offer a more nuanced reading. The On-Balance Volume, or OBV, registered higher lows between February 9 and 13 while the price formed lower highs, a signal of silent accumulation by retail investors. The Chaikin Money Flow, for its part, also showed improvement, though it remains below zero, indicating that institutional capital has yet to support a consistent recovery.

The determining factor, however, is external to the company. The correlation between BMNR and Ethereum climbed from 0.50 to 0.52, turning the stock into a high-sensitivity proxy for ETH’s performance. Additionally, the long-short ratio in the ETH futures market fell to extremely low levels, reflecting a predominantly bearish positioning among traders. That pressure on Ethereum translates directly to BitMine, regardless of how much ETH the company accumulates. Unless Ethereum reverses its trend, the expansion of the treasury will hardly be sufficient to sustain the share price.