Market Signal Briefing

Cardano has struggled to build sustained upside in recent weeks. The asset is down roughly 4% over the past 24 hours and nearly 9% over the last 30 days, reflecting the broader weakness across the crypto market. Yet the timing of the latest metrics is notable.

As the market enters a weekend trading window, a period typically marked by thinner liquidity and faster reactions to technical signals, selling pressure across the Cardano network has dropped sharply. At the same time, a momentum shift is appearing on the chart. Together, these developments raise a key question: could Cardano attempt a weekend rebound?

Bullish Divergence Suggests a Weekend Reaction Could Come QuicklyOn the 12-hour chart, Cardano shows bullish divergence between price action and the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator.

Between February 13 and March 6, the Cardano price formed a lower low, while the RSI produced a slightly higher low. This structure often appears toward the end of declining phases when selling momentum begins to weaken.

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Cardano Divergence: TradingViewFrom a buyer–seller perspective, this pattern suggests that although prices continued falling, sellers were losing control of momentum while buyers slowly absorbed supply at lower levels. These types of divergences typically play out quickly once they appear, especially in low-liquidity periods such as weekend trading sessions.

In other words, if buyers react to the signal, the rebound tends to occur relatively fast rather than develop slowly.

But momentum signals alone rarely drive price movements. On-chain metrics now show another shift that may support the rebound thesis.

Profitability Bottom and 50% Drop in Selling Pressure Strengthen the Bounce CaseOn-chain data reveals that the percentage of Cardano’s circulating supply currently in profit has recently reached another local bottom. This metric measures how many coins are held above their purchase price. When profitability drops, fewer investors remain in profit, which typically reduces the incentive to sell.

A similar situation appeared on March 4, when the metric dropped near 9.43% while Cardano traded around $0.26. Within a day, the price climbed toward $0.28, marking a rebound of roughly 8%.

Profitability Dips: SantimentNow the metric has fallen again, declining from 11.3% on March 5 to around 7.03% at press time, forming another local low that could again support a rebound attempt. At the same time, selling pressure across the network has dropped sharply. Data from the Spent Coins Age Band metric — which tracks coins moving on-chain across all age groups and often reflects distribution activity — shows a dramatic slowdown.

The indicator peaked near 171.42 million coins on February 27 but has now dropped to roughly 89.97 million (a monthly low). That represents a decline of nearly 50% in selling pressure.

Coin Activity Linked To Selling Dips: SantimentWhen fewer coins move on-chain for potential distribution, it often suggests that holders are becoming less willing to sell at current price levels. This, in turn, could reduce immediate supply pressure in the market.

With both profitability and spending activity pointing toward declining selling pressure, attention now turns to the price levels that could determine whether Cardano manages a weekend rebound.

Cardano Price Levels That Could Decide the Weekend MoveFrom a technical perspective, trend-based Fibonacci extension levels drawn from the February 11 rally to the February 25 peak and the March 6 pullback highlight several key zones. ADA is currently trading around $0.258, just above the $0.255 support level.

If buyers defend this level, the next rebound target sits near $0.270, representing roughly 5% upside from current prices. This level has repeatedly acted as resistance throughout early March.

A move above $0.270 could push the ADA price toward $0.279, a level that has rejected several recent rallies.

Stronger bullish momentum would only emerge if Cardano manages to reclaim the $0.287–$0.294 range, where previous recoveries stalled.

Cardano Price Analysis: TradingViewHowever, the rebound scenario would weaken if the ADA price falls below $0.255. A breakdown there could push the price toward $0.250, invalidating the short-term bounce setup.

For now, the combination of a bullish divergence, a profitability bottom, and a 50% drop in selling pressure suggests Cardano may attempt a weekend rebound. However, the move could remain weak unless buyers push the price above nearby resistance levels.

Friday was the worst day in terms of daily outflows for the XRP ETFs in over a month.

Although the week began on a more positive note for the spot Ripple (XRP) ETFs in the US, it ended with more significant outflows, making it a red one – the first since late January.

At the same time, the underlying asset’s attempted breakout was short-lived, as it was stopped at $1.45 and now sits below a crucial support level.

XRP ETFs Bleed The financial products tracking the performance of the fifth-largest cryptocurrency have not fared well in the past few weeks. Recall that they even had some days of minimal activity, where SoSoValue saw no measurable inflows worth reporting. Nevertheless, they managed to end all four weeks of February in the green, albeit in a more modest manner at the end of the month.

March also started more favorably. It began with a $7 million net inflow on Monday, followed by $7.53 million on Tuesday, and a more modest $4.19 million on Wednesday. However, investors broke their streak on Thursday, with $6.15 million in net outflows.

Friday was the worst day in this manner, as $16.62 million left the funds. This was the highest single-day net outflow since January 29, when investors pulled out a whopping $92.92 million.

Consequently, the first trading week of March ended with a $4.09 loss for the XRP exchange-traded funds. The total net inflows have declined to $1.24 billion from the $1.26 billion mid-week peak.

Meanwhile, Canary Capital’s XRPC remains the largest XRP-focused ETF, but Bitwise’s XRP has narrowed the gap to under $1 million – $266.11 million against $265.42 million, respectively.

You may also like: Analyst Tells XRP Holders to Tune Out War Talk and Watch Key Price Levels XRP Funding Rates on Binance Turn Deeply Negative, Buy Signal? Analyst: XRP Must Clear This Key Level to Invalidate Bearish Structure XRP Price Progress Halted Perhaps driven by the positive inflows at the start of the week and the overall market-wide resurgence, XRP jumped from its Saturday low at $1.27 to $1.47 by Wednesday. However, as the tides turned, BTC was rejected at $74,000, and the ETF flows turned negative, Ripple’s cross-border token slipped to under $1.40 as of now.

Popular analyst CryptoWZRD noted that the asset closed indecisively, but believes the XRP/BTC trading pair “should play a major role soon.” Ripple’s asset needs to hold above the $1.3820 resistance to remain long, but it’s currently trading just below that level.

XRP Daily Technical Outlook:$XRP closed indecisively. XRPBTC should play a major role soon. My focus will remain on the lower time frame. Holding above the $1.3820 resistance for a while could trigger a long. Below we’ll see more sideways movement 😈 pic.twitter.com/4b0uZndh2m

— CRYPTOWZRD (@cryptoWZRD_) March 7, 2026

In the meantime, some of the most vocal XRP bulls on X continue to outline highly speculative and big price predictions. Cobb, for example, said a $4.00 price target for XRP doesn’t sound crazy.

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Replying to the public pressure, PancakeSwap accepted that it has so far started private talks to settle the dispute. In the near future, the market will be able to witness if both decentralised giants manage to formalise an official licensing agreement or a technical alliance.  The stablecoin-focused decentralised exchange, Curve Finance, has accused PancakeSwap of using its proprietary code to back the StableSwap function without having permission. 

The accusation was made on March 6 on X, where the Curve team highlighted that this action shows a direct breach of the StableSwap licence, alerting to the legal and technical risks associated with replicating financial software without the proper regulatory framework. 

The X post of Curve Finance mentioned that, “Dear PancakeSwap. Looks like you copied out code without permission. It is a violation of its licence. Not only is it illegal, but historically it has shown to be unwise for those who did it this way in other regards. 

It further added that in any case. If you want to enjoy using StableSwap without legal problems and to borrow some of our expertise to keep users SAFU, you still can contact us for licensing and collaboration.”

The post was made in reply to the X post made by PancakeSwap on March 2 mentioning, “Introducing better prices for swapping stablecoins and tightly pegged assets, and Stableswap is now live on PancakeSwap Infinity.”

Settlement or Collaboration: What Will The Market Witness  Quickly after the complaint, the DeFi ecosystem witnessed a brief shock, as PancakeSwap had just executed said technology on its “Infinity” platform to provide stablecoin swaps having ultra-low slippage. 

Replying to the public pressure, PancakeSwap accepted that it has so far started private talks to settle the dispute, while Curve softened its primary stance by recommending a possible strategic collaboration under the motto “build together”.

In the near future, the market will be able to witness if both decentralised giants manage to formalise an official licensing agreement or a technical alliance. The settlement of this conflict will set a prominent precedent concerning the safeguarding of intellectual property in open source, while users hope that this amalgamation does not compromise the security of the liquidity pools of the network. 

Highlighted Crypto News Today: 

KuCoin Introduces KCS PulseDrop to Turn User Activity Into Crypto Rewards

A passionate journalist with a strong foundation in content writing and an experience in the crypto industry. With a commitment to self-growth, Sharmistha aims to make a meaningful impact in the media and communications landscape.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC 3.60%) is down more than 40% from its all-time high. Meanwhile, gold is trading near record highs. This is an important dichotomy as geopolitical events lead to increased market volatility. Far from being a hedge against market risk, as some market watchers had hoped, Bitcoin has turned out to be a volatility risk all on its own at exactly the point when investors probably hoped it would serve as a bulwark.

Where is Bitcoin going? Prediction markets are a relatively new tool for monitoring sentiment across a wide range of topics, from the outcome of a political race to the weather. There's also a prediction market around Bitcoin. The numbers are interesting. It appears that prediction markets suggest an 11% chance for Bitcoin to hit $150,000 by the end of 2026. That would push the cryptocurrency to a new high, well above the roughly $126,000 it reached in October.

Image source: Getty Images.

What's more interesting is that the chance of revisiting just $120,000 is only about 21%, which isn't much better. If you bought at the recent highs, prediction markets aren't looking pretty for you right now. And that's an important factor to keep in mind as you consider why you bought Bitcoin in the first place.

Bitcoin hasn't proven itself yet Cryptocurrencies are a speculative asset. The huge price swings are a sign that emotions drive price movements. Still, one of the big argument in favors of owning Bitcoin is that it could serve as a store of wealth, making it analogous to gold. However, as geopolitical tensions have risen, gold has soared while Bitcoin has plunged. And if prediction markets are any indication, Bitcoin isn't likely to regain the ground it has lost during the past few months.

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If you bought Bitcoin expecting it to be a hedge against market risk, it hasn't lived up to its billing as digital gold. Quite the contrary, it has exacerbated the financial risks you face. It may be time to rethink your Bitcoin exposure if you are worried about the global economy and the stock market amid intensifying geopolitical tensions.

Be careful with Bitcoin The cryptocurrency concept is interesting. However, the market for these securities is still very new and largely untested. That's true even of Bitcoin, the granddaddy of the crypto sector. At this point, it's still unclear what makes cryptocurrencies valuable. The notion that they are a store of wealth in turbulent times, however, is one theory that doesn't seem to be panning out as well as expected.

Reuben Gregg Brewer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

The cryptocurrency market is standing at a critical turning point where geopolitical fear and institutional optimism are colliding head-on. After weeks of uncertainty, investor sentiment appears to have reached exhaustion—not because of a lack of conviction, but due to months of global volatility wearing down market participants.

In his latest analysis, crypto strategist Lark Davis raises a question echoing across the industry: has the market finally reached its bottom, or is Bitcoin simply catching its breath before another correction? The answer may depend less on Bitcoin itself and more on the complex macroeconomic environment unfolding throughout 2026.

Geopolitics and oil: the Strait of uncertainty Global markets have dramatically shifted their focus. What only months ago revolved around artificial intelligence and Federal Reserve interest rate policy is now centered on a narrow maritime chokepoint in the Middle East: the Strait of Hormuz.

Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through this waterway each day, making it one of the most sensitive pressure points in the global energy system. Rising tensions between United States and Iran have fueled fears of supply disruptions and a potential resurgence in global inflation.

Yet market data tells a far less dramatic story than the narratives circulating on social media. Brent crude oil remains in the $84–$86 per barrel range, still far from the triple-digit levels that typically accompany true energy shocks.

This suggests that so-called “smart money” is not yet positioning for a systemic crisis. In this environment, Bitcoin once again behaves like a hybrid asset—sensitive to macroeconomic risk, but surprisingly resilient when market fear becomes excessive.

The institutional paradox: the silence of giants While retail investors appear increasingly nervous, institutional infrastructure around cryptocurrencies continues expanding quietly.

One of the most significant developments comes from Kraken, whose banking division has secured approval to access a Federal Reserve master account. This allows the firm to settle transactions directly through the Fedwire payment system without relying on intermediary banks. After a regulatory process lasting five years, it marks the first time a digital-asset institution has obtained such access.

The move reflects a broader trend unfolding on Wall Street. Financial giant Morgan Stanley recently filed documents with the SEC to launch a Bitcoin ETF that would use BNY Mellon and Coinbase as custodians.

The choice is significant. BNY Mellon safeguards more than $59 trillion in assets, dramatically reducing one of the largest barriers to institutional adoption: custody risk. For pension funds and large asset managers, this level of infrastructure represents a crucial bridge between the traditional financial system and the digital asset ecosystem.

In other words, while the market obsesses over short-term price movements, the foundations of long-term institutional adoption continue to strengthen.

Technical analysis: the short sellers’ trap From a derivatives perspective, the market structure is even more intriguing.

Throughout February and early March, negative funding rates in Bitcoin perpetual futures signaled heavy bearish positioning. In simple terms, traders betting against the price were paying long traders to maintain their positions.

Historically, such imbalances often precede sharp upside moves.

On March 5, exactly that scenario unfolded. Bitcoin briefly surged past $71,000, triggering the liquidation of more than $110 million in short positions within 24 hours. The cascade of forced closures created a classic short squeeze, confirming that extreme pessimism in the market may have been overstretched.

At the same time, sentiment indicators such as the Fear & Greed Index remain near 19, a level historically associated with capitulation phases that frequently precede significant rebounds.

The 14-month cycle: Bitcoin versus gold One of the more intriguing arguments in Davis’s analysis comes from the relationship between Bitcoin and gold.

Market studies examining the BTC/Gold ratio show a repeating pattern across multiple cycles: the market tends to reach a bottom approximately 14 months after its relative peak against gold.

This behavior appeared in 2014, 2018, and 2022—each time preceding major bull markets.

If the pattern repeats once again, the ratio’s peak recorded in late 2024 would place the potential market bottom around the current 2026 window. Under this framework, the next 6 to 18 months could represent the beginning of another expansion phase for Bitcoin.

Humanizing trading: surviving the market Beyond charts and metrics, Davis also offers a reminder that even experienced investors make costly mistakes.

He recalls how many traders were caught in the rise and fall of SPAC-era companies, including Virgin Galactic, where he personally experienced losses approaching 90% of his investment.

The lesson is simple yet critical: success in financial markets does not depend on being right all the time, but on managing risk and preserving capital.

Conclusion: patience amid the noise The current environment combines geopolitical tensions, energy uncertainty, and structural shifts in financial regulation.

Yet beneath the surface of market noise, a deeper transformation is taking place—the gradual institutionalization of Bitcoin.

While Middle East conflicts dominate headlines, banks, custodians, and asset managers continue building the infrastructure that could support the next bull cycle.

The final takeaway is clear: avoid FOMO, prioritize risk management, and maintain a long-term perspective. Geopolitical crises may be temporary, but the transformation of the global financial system could prove far more permanent.

Disclaimer: This article has been written for informational purposes only. It should not be taken as investment advice under any circumstances. Before making any investment in the crypto market, do your own research.

On 6 March 2026, the U.S. federal court allowed the Tether, Bitfinex Crypto Case to move forward as a class action. However, the investor’s case claims that both companies manipulated Bitcoin and Ethereum prices during the 2017 crypto boom using newly issued USDT tokens.

Tether, Bitfinex Crypto Case Moves ForwardA federal judge in New York approved class action status in an ongoing lawsuit against Tether and Bitfinex. The decision made by U.S. District Court Judge Katherine Polk Failla allowed thousands of investors to join the lawsuit instead of filing individual claims.

The judge divided the plaintiffs into two groups to manage the case more efficiently. One group represents investors who bought cryptocurrencies directly in the spot market, while the second group includes traders who used futures contracts.

Meanwhile, the judgment of this case does not determine whether the companies broke the law. However, it allows the case to move forward toward further legal proceedings.

Lawsuit Claims USDT Were Issued To Manipulate BTC & ETH PriceInvestors claim that large amounts of Tether (USDT) were issued between 2017 and 2019 without proper backing. According to the complaint, these tokens were allegedly used to buy Bitcoin and Ethereum, pushing prices higher & creating a market bubble.

The plaintiffs argue that the manipulation caused artificial price inflation during the historic 2017 bull run.

When the market later corrected, many investors suffered heavy losses. Some estimates suggest the alleged manipulation may have caused billions of dollars in damages across the crypto market.

Both Tether and Bitfinex have strongly denied the accusations. The companies say the lawsuit is based on incorrect assumptions and misunderstand how USDT issuance and trading activity work.

What’s Next in the Tether and Bitfinex Lawsuit?Now that the class action status is approved, the case will move to the next stage, where both sides will present evidence.

For now, the court is reviewing parts of the judge’s sealed opinion. Lawyers from both sides must submit their proposals by March 9. 

Meanwhile, any major ruling could affect future rules on stablecoin transparency and market practices.

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TLDR: Cango operated at 34.55 EH/s in February, running 30% below its 50 EH/s installed capacity Bitcoin hashprice dropped to the low-$30 range, squeezing miners with costs near $40/PH/s daily Cango sold 4,616 BTC in February — over ten times its monthly production — to cut loan exposure The asset-light Bitmain colocation model enabled fast scaling but left Cango exposed to high hosting fees Cango ran its Bitcoin mining fleet at 30% below installed capacity in February. The company’s average operating hashrate reached 34.55 EH/s against 50 EH/s of deployed capacity.

Industry hashprice has fallen below $40/PH/s per day and stayed largely in the low-$30 range. The firm attributed the output gap to fleet optimization and ongoing equipment relocation efforts.

Cango is renegotiating hosting agreements and migrating to lower-cost power regions to manage expenses.

Bitcoin miner Cango has temporarily taken about 30% of its mining capacity offline, reducing its average operating hashrate to 34.55 EH/s versus 50 EH/s deployed, as declining mining profitability pressures operations. The company said the move is part of efforts to optimize…

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) March 6, 2026

Fleet Restructuring Weighs on February Hashrate The shortfall between the company’s deployed and operating hashrate stems from temporary downtime during restructuring.

The firm is upgrading equipment and divesting certain rigs while renegotiating hosting contracts. These steps aim to reduce the cost exposure that has widened as hashprice falls. Moving to regions with lower electricity costs remains a core element of the plan.

Cango built its 50 EH/s capacity through an asset-light colocation model at Bitmain-operated sites. The setup involved purchasing large volumes of on-rack Antminer S19 XP machines from Bitmain.

That model allowed rapid scaling without constructing proprietary data centers. However, it exposed the company to hosting costs that are difficult to justify near breakeven revenue levels.

The fleet hashcost has historically hovered around $40/PH/s per day. With hashprice largely in the low-$30 range, that margin is now razor-thin. Addressing hosting fees through renegotiation and relocation has become a top operational priority.

The miner produced 454.83 BTC in February despite running well under its installed capacity. Fleet repositioning is expected to reduce operating costs and improve margins going forward.

Completing the renegotiation and relocation work will be critical to longer-term operational stability.

Cango Liquidates Over 4,600 BTC to Reduce Loan Exposure Cango moved aggressively to strengthen its balance sheet as market conditions deteriorated in February. The company sold a total of 4,616 BTC during the month, far exceeding its monthly production.

That figure is over ten times what the firm produced during the same period. The selling pressure was driven primarily by the need to reduce outstanding loan obligations.

During a market selloff in early February, the company force-liquidated reserves over a single weekend. The firm sold 4,451 BTC in those two days to reduce debt, per prior disclosures. That sale represented roughly 60% of its holdings at the time, as Bitcoin prices fell.

As of February 28, the company held 3,313.4 BTC on its balance sheet following the sales. The remaining reserves reflect what was left after the weekend liquidation and monthly production. Sustained margin pressure could lead to further reserve management decisions in the months ahead.

The broader mining sector continues to face strain as hashprice remains below $40/PH/s. The firm’s hosting cost exposure and forced reserve sales reflect the severity of current conditions.

Addressing fleet economics through relocation and contract renegotiation will determine the path to recovery.

Bitcoin (BTC) may be facing a significant correction after a key bearish technical signal emerged on the three-day chart, raising the possibility of a move toward the $36,000 level.

According to insights from TradingShot in a TradingView post on March 6, this outlook stems from the fact that the cryptocurrency has formed a death cross on the three-day timeframe.

Bitcoin price analysis. Source: TradingView Notably, the pattern occurs when the 50-period moving average (MA50) falls below the 200-period moving average (MA200). The signal historically appears during major bear cycles and has often preceded extended declines in the cryptocurrency’s price.

Based on historical data, each time this pattern has appeared since 2014 during a bear market phase, Bitcoin has continued to fall sharply after the crossover. 

During the 2022 market downturn and the 2018 crypto winter, the asset declined by slightly more than 52% after the signal formed. In the earlier 2014 cycle, the drop was even steeper, reaching approximately 57%.

The current setup shows the MA50 turning lower and crossing below the MA200, confirming the bearish crossover. Bitcoin is also trading beneath both trend lines after losing momentum near $70,000, a structure that historically signals weakening market strength.

Bitcoin next low target  If the pattern follows previous cycles, Bitcoin could see a similar decline. A roughly 52% drop from the crossover area would place the price near $36,000, aligning with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension that marked bottoms during the 2018 and 2022 bear markets.

Based on this historical behavior, analysts view the $40,000 to $36,000 range as a potential accumulation zone, with $40,000 aligning with the Fibonacci extension and $36,000 reflecting the typical post–death cross decline seen in prior cycles.

This bearish outlook comes after the cryptocurrency climbed to nearly $74,000 between March 4 and March 5, marking a one-month high and briefly boosting trader optimism. 

The move was driven by short squeezes, renewed inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, and perceived resilience amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. 

During the rally, Bitcoin also moved alongside a strengthening U.S. dollar, an unusual correlation that has emerged since late 2024.

However, the momentum quickly faded, with a pullback wiping out much of the week’s gains.

Bitcoin price analysis  At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was priced at $67,955, well below its 50-day SMA of $75,548 and significantly under the 200-day SMA at $96,080.

Bitcoin seven-day price chart. Source: Finbold Trading beneath both moving averages typically signals bearish market conditions and indicates that the broader trend remains under pressure.

Momentum indicators, however, paint a more balanced picture. Bitcoin’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 45.93, placing it firmly in neutral territory. The RSI measures the speed and magnitude of price movements on a scale from 0 to 100.

Bitcoin’s rebound on March 4 looked odd if you only watched it through the usual “risk assets are breaking” lens. Oil was jumping, shipping insurers were repricing war risk, and traders were treating the Strait of Hormuz like a live wire. All of the headlines had the cadence of a full-blown crisis.

However, Bitcoin climbed back into the same $70,000 zone it has been orbiting for weeks, despite seeing a notable drop the weekend before.

Two factors explain that move.

The first is a pretty straightforward macro influence. Whenever the Middle East starts seeing oil shocks, markets quickly price in higher energy costs, messier supply chains, and a whole other range of negative outcomes. Joint US and Israeli strikes on Iran and retaliatory attacks across the Gulf caused disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and led to a severe energy shock.

As threats around the Strait intensified, war risk insurance and freight rates spiked, leading to a quick surge in oil and gas prices.

The second factor is derivatives. While it's not the only cause of the recovery, it explains why BTC can drop on shock and then rebound into a familiar price band even while the market remains nervous. The biggest effect comes from options, where hedging flows can pull the price toward crowded strike zones.

The macro shock supplied the match, but the options market supplied the dry timber already stacked around $70,000.

The shock that hit everything first: oil, Hormuz, and the cost of moving fuelThe Strait of Hormuz is a critical transit chokepoint in the global oil and gas trade. Data from 2024 showed around 20 million barrels passed through the Strait each day, equal to about 20% of the entire global consumption of petroleum liquids. (eia.gov)

When conditions in that narrow channel deteriorate, the market quickly reprices logistics, insurance, and the practical ability to export.

Between Feb. 28 and March 4, the Iran war threw the oil market into one of its biggest shocks in decades. The strikes and retaliation that followed threatened exports from the world's most important oil-producing region.

As traffic through the strait collapsed, shipping costs soared, and insurers were pulling cover and widening risk zones, with some shipping companies even diverting around the Cape of Good Hope.

Oil is the lifeblood of the global economy, and oil prices bleed into everything else. It affects everything from transport costs and airline economics to heating costs, food logistics, and inflation expectations.

So, when oil prices spike because the world's most important transit route is threatened, investors ask the same questions across markets: where does the risk go now?

Why Bitcoin sold first, then bounced while nerves stayed highBitcoin’s first move in a macro shock often looks like a simple set of liquidations. Blaming it on liquidations isn't surprising, given that Bitcoin trades 24/7, in size, and with fewer friction points than many other instruments. So when traders want to cut exposure quickly, they sell what they can sell quickly.

And part of that is certainly true. Bitcoin dropped after the weekend strikes and saw just under $1 billion liquidated between Feb. 28 and March 1.

That's the macro narrative: when shock hits, BTC sells quickly and in size.

But the missing piece of the puzzle is why it rebounded faster than everything else and kept pulling toward the same zone that has mattered for weeks. That is where the options market steps in.

The $70,000 area is a crowded intersection in optionsOptions come with a lot of Greek letters and dense terminology, so they tend to fall down the ladder of importance in times of macroeconomic shocks. But crypto options, and Bitcoin options in particular, have become so large that they have their own gravitational pull.

Large institutions now carry options exposure so large that even the slightest daily price movements force them to hedge.

Gamma measures how quickly an option’s sensitivity changes as the price moves. When gamma is high, small moves in Bitcoin can force larger hedge adjustments. That kind of trading can add speed and amplify short-term swings.

The peak gamma area for options expiring on March 5 and March 6 was around $71,000, with an elevated band from about $70,500 to $73,000. That's the zone where hedging sensitivity peaks.

Inside it, the market can feel spring-loaded, and dips and rallies tend to travel faster because the hedging response scales up.

The strike data backs up the same point. CoinGlass data shows dense exposure between $70,000 and $75,000, so these two strikes are doing most of the work.

Chart showing the open interest for Bitcoin options on Deribit by strike price on Mar. 5, 2026 (Source: CoinGlass)At $70,000, open interest sits around 9.3k puts and 9.25k calls, roughly $1.32 billion in notional exposure. At $75,000, open interest sits around 17.36k calls and 9.41k puts, roughly $1.9 billion in notional. Those figures create a corridor where a lot of risk is anchored to a narrow set of prices.

You can think of it like traffic. A city has roads everywhere, but the congestion happens at chokepoints because many routes intersect there. The chokepoint exists because the map funnels activity through it, and strike clusters do the same thing: they funnel hedging flow through a small band of prices.

March 27 matters because deadlines concentrate behaviorLooking at expiries shows one date dwarfing the rest: March 27.

That expiry carries about 111.7k calls and 74.97k puts, around $13.27 billion in notional exposure.

Chart showing the open interest for Bitcoin options on Deribit by expiry on Mar. 5, 2026 (Source: CoinGlass)Total BTC options open interest also rose from about $32 billion in late February to about $36 to $37 billion in early March, which raises the influence of options-related flows during a volatile period.

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Large expiries concentrate behavior because time compresses and traders roll positions forward, forcing dealers manage risk more tightly. Hedging can intensify as the calendar moves closer to a large expiry.

That's why the magnetic effect of certain price points has often strengthened into expiry windows.

The closer the calendar gets to March 27, the more the strike corridor around $70,000 and $75,000 can act like a rail. Price still moves and headlines still matter, and the market also keeps bumping into the same concentrations of risk.

How oil ties to optionsThe oil shock supplied the volatility, and the options market shaped where the price traveled as the rebound took hold.

A clean sequence fits the window from Feb. 28 through March 4.

First, oil and shipping markets repriced risk quickly as Hormuz conditions worsened and export logistics tightened.

Second, Bitcoin sold in the first wave because it's liquid and always open, and because investors reduce exposure broadly when volatility rises. (fortune.com)

Third, as the selling faded and price began recovering, Bitcoin ran into a corridor where options exposure is dense between $70,000 and $75,000, with peak gamma around $71,000, where hedging sensitivity is highest. A rebound that reaches into that band can become more reactive because hedgers are forced to adjust more often.

Fourth, funding adds torque. CoinGlass data showed repeated negative funding spikes from late February into early March, each followed by rallies. That fits a market leaning short, because when price goes up, short covering adds buying pressure. That buying can push price into the strike corridor faster, and the high gamma band can amplify the move once price gets there.

Why the $70,000 corridor can keep showing up into late MarchA $13.27 billion expiry acts like an anchor. Big expiries pull trading activity toward strikes with heavy open interest, because that's where rolling and hedging are most concentrated. Strike data points to $70,000 and $75,000 as major nodes in that corridor.

At the same time, the macro backdrop stayed tense. Ongoing volatility keeps Bitcoin acting like a liquid release valve. It sells early in the shock and then rebounds into the places where derivatives positioning concentrates flows.

That's why $70,000 can keep showing up as a destination even when the headlines have nothing to do with crypto. The market keeps returning to the same area because that's where the risk sits today.

Three things to watch nextYou don't need to read an options chain to track whether the $70,000 corridor story still fits.

Watch where the biggest strike concentrations sit. If open interest goes higher, the corridor moves with it, and if it shifts lower, the corridor will follow.

Watch the calendar. March 27 is the biggest expiry we've seen in a while, and large expiries often reshape positioning when they pass because traders roll or close risk.

Watch the macro volatility tied to oil and shipping. The Hormuz situation pushed crude and shipping costs higher. (reuters.com) If that persists, Bitcoin is likely to keep trading as a fast, liquid asset that sells early and then rebounds into the derivatives zones that concentrate hedging.

An oil shock rattled markets, and Bitcoin dropped first and dropped fast because it's liquid. The rebound then flowed into a $70,000 to $75,000 corridor where options positioning, hedging sensitivity, and a large late-March expiry make price action more reactive around the same set of levels.

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Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai's new comp package comes with equity tied to Waymo's and Wing's performance Justin Sullivan/Getty Images 2026-03-07T05:03:38.099Z

Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai will get a new performance-based equity pay package worth up to $692M. The new package ties Pichai's compensation partly to the financial performance of Waymo and Wing. Waymo has expanded to 10 markets, marking significant growth for Alphabet's autonomous service. Alphabet's chief executive just got a new equity pay package that, for the first time, ties a chunk of his payout to Waymo, the company's robotaxi service.

In an SEC filing posted on Friday, the company awarded CEO Sundar Pichai a three-year equity cycle that could be worth up to $692 million if the CEO meets the board's performance targets.

Much of the package remains unchanged from the CEO's 2022 award, according to the filing. The new incentives revolve around the value of two of Alphabet's "Other Bets": Waymo and Wing Aviation, a drone delivery service.

According to the filing, Pichai could be awarded up to $260 million depending on the increase in Waymo's per-unit value over a three-year period, as determined by the compensation committee — essentially, the board's estimate of what a single Waymo equity unit is worth.

The company doesn't list specific operational milestones Pichai will have to reach. A spokesperson for Alphabet declined to comment.

In addition, the company granted the CEO Wing-linked equity units that could be worth up to $90 million, contingent on the company's per-unit value over the next three years.

Tying Pichai's compensation to Waymo and Wing is a signal that Alphabet no longer views the two entities as moonshot experiments but rather as assets representing valuable, scalable businesses

The board said in the filing that "incentivizing Mr. Pichai to focus his efforts on developing and scaling Alphabet's later stage Other Bets, such as Waymo and Wing," is in the best interests of Alphabet and its stakeholders.

Waymo, which began as a project inside Google's moonshot factory in 2009, has driven over 200 million autonomous miles to date. This year, the company expanded its commercial service to 10 markets, serving riders in Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Orlando.

Wing is another moonshot factory venture that began in 2012. The company, which provides last-mile drone delivery services, became an independent Alphabet subsidiary in 2018. Wing announced in January that it would expand to more than 270 Walmart stores by 2027.

Pichai maintains a base salary of $2 million, unchanged since 2020, and will be awarded performance stock units (PSUs) tied to Alphabet's total shareholder returns relative to the S&P 100. The max value of the PSUs could be worth up to $252 million.

There's also a time-based equity package that will award Pichai $84 million, provided he stays with the company for the next three years.

Waymo Alphabet

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Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Postal Realty is consolidating a fragmented market of USPS landlords, giving it a long runway for acquisitions. Recent acquisitions have been accretive because property yields remain above Postal Realty's blended cost of capital. The main risk is USPS network restructuring, which could eventually pressure renewals for some specialized properties.

Amarin (AMRN 0.78%) is a drug company that is in a particularly precarious position. This fact is highlighted by the company's recent move to restructure its operations in an effort to cut costs. And Vascepa, the one drug it has to sell, is already facing generic competition in the United States. Most investors would be better off with a larger drug company.

Amarin has some positives to offer Perhaps the most positive thing about Amarin is its balance sheet. The company is carrying no long-term debt, has a cash balance of nearly $135 million, and owns short-term investments worth just under $168 million. In short, it is in a very strong financial position and can likely sustain its business for years to come.

Image source: Getty Images.

Meanwhile, despite the headwinds Vascepa faces in the U.S. market, it is a revenue-generating product. In 2025, Amarin had product sales of nearly $183 million. And a restructuring effort in 2025 has helped the company reduce costs. Management believes the restructuring will help it to generate positive free cash flow in 2026. A pharmaceutical company with no debt and positive free cash flow would normally be hard to complain about.

I still wouldn't touch Amarin with a 10-foot pole For the most part, the good news ends there. The big risk is that the company's sales stood at $285 million two years ago. So there's been a material decline on the top line. The fact that its only drug has faced generic competition in the U.S. market has a lot to do with the revenue decline. With no other product to lean on, Amarin has little choice but to pull back on spending or its strong financial situation could quickly start to deteriorate.

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Essentially, the company is doing the right thing by trying to milk every dollar out of the only drug it has to sell. But it isn't working from a position of operational strength. The big risk is that the company's revenue declines continue, with the company simply shrinking its business along the way to sustain itself. That's not likely to lead to a good outcome for shareholders.

Go with a bigger drug company To be fair, the drug cycle that Amarin is dealing with is completely normal in the pharma sector. The problem is that the company has just one drug to sell. If it were a larger company with a broader drug portfolio, it would have a stronger foundation from which to work. If you are willing to take on the risk associated with Amarin, you'd likely be better off buying an out-of-favor drug maker like Pfizer (PFE +1.71%) instead.

Pfizer has patent expirations coming up and had a material GLP-1 drug setback. However, it has a broad portfolio of drugs, and management was able to quickly pivot and acquire a new GLP-1 drug candidate. Pfizer has proven, once again, that it can pivot as needed. Essentially, unlike Amarin, Pfizer is working from a position of strength.

Rocket Lab remains a speculative buy, with fair valuation and upside potential tied to long-term growth beyond 2030. Neutron rocket delays are manageable, with manufacturing fixes in place and R&D costs peaking in Q1 2026. Q4 2025 saw 16% sequential sales growth and margin expansion, with backlog at $1.85 billion and 65% from government customers.

International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference 2026 March 3, 2026 11:30 AM EST

Company Participants

Robert Thomas - Senior VP of IBM Software & Chief Commercial Officer

Conference Call Participants

Erik Woodring - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Presentation

Erik Woodring
Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Well, let's get started, guys. Thank you very much for joining us. Welcome to day 2 of the flagship TMT Conference. My name is Erik Woodring. I lead the U.S. IT hardware coverage here. I am delighted to be joined by Rob Thomas, IBM's Head of Software and Chief Commercial Officer. But before we get started, I just need to read this disclosure statement. I need to mention that important disclosures can be found at the Morgan Stanley research disclosure website at www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures. If you have any questions, please reach out to your Morgan Stanley sales representative.

So Rob, thank you very much for joining us today.

Robert Thomas
Senior VP of IBM Software & Chief Commercial Officer

Thanks for having me. Great to be with you.

Question-and-Answer Session

Erik Woodring
Morgan Stanley, Research Division

So I think the best place to start maybe is just better understand how to think about the key drivers of growth for IBM. So exiting 2025, 3 of your 4 software subsegments were growing double digits. Mainframe had a record year, helping to offset maybe more tepid growth in services. So taking a step back as we think over kind of the medium term and beyond, what are the key growth drivers as we think about the IBM model? And let's start from there.

Robert Thomas
Senior VP of IBM Software & Chief Commercial Officer

So maybe go back to 2020 when Arvind Krishna took over. He had the insight that we can be uniquely

Goldman Sachs is downgraded to a hold, reflecting technical chart patterns and market risks despite other strong fundamentals. GS maintains robust capital ratios, investment-grade ratings, and impressive dividend growth, supporting long-term resilience. Recent acquisitions drive growth potential, but integration risks and market volatility temper bullishness.

HomeDividends AnalysisDividend Quick Picks

SummaryBerkshire Hathaway portfolio shifts post-Buffett, with Greg Abel now overseeing equity holdings and notable Q4 trades in Chevron, Chubb, Domino's, and Amazon.Dividend dog analysis highlights Kraft Heinz and Sirius XM as top-yielding but riskier holdings due to negative one-year total returns.Analyst targets project 21.97% to 123.02% net gains for top Berkshire dividend stocks by March 2027, led by Diageo and Jefferies.Five of thirty-two BRK dividend dogs show negative free cash-flow margins, flagging caution for investors seeking sustainable payouts.This Berkshire/Buffett holdings list first appeared 2/17/26 on BKH’s SEC Form 13F. Kiplinger, YCharts, Investopedia, and Dogs of The Dow all track this BRK batch. Here is your update from 3/4/25 YCharts data.Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of The Dividend Dog Catcher get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios. Learn More »Galdric/iStock via Getty Images

Foreword Dan Burrows says in Kiplinger Investing:

"The Berkshire Hathaway portfolio is a diverse set of blue chips and, increasingly, lesser-known growth bets. Here's a look at every stock picked by Warren Buffett and his lieutenants.

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Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

HomeEarnings AnalysisConsumer 

SummaryThe Gap remains a buy, with a compelling valuation, robust cash flow, and a strong balance sheet supporting its turnaround potential.GAP is executing a high-CapEx strategy in 2026 ($650M), investing in store formats, AI, tech, and supply chain, while maintaining healthy free cash flow.Shareholder returns were also lifted: a 6% dividend increase, new $1B buyback authorization, and ample liquidity with $2.62B in cash.Risks persist from macro headwinds and consumer weakness, but GAP’s valuation, financial resilience, and tariff mitigation strategies provide a solid margin of safety. JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images

Introduction The last time I covered The Gap (GAP), I highlighted their strong financials, attractive valuation, and resilient cash flow despite the ongoing macro headwinds, rating them a Buy.

With the stock falling following

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in GAP over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

The technology industry is currently investing massive amounts of capital into new data centers to support the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence and cloud-based services. Hyperscalers are spending $700 billion on capital expenditures this year to build out these data centers, creating a generational investment cycle in power generation and grid modernization.

For companies like Quanta Services (PWR 1.64%), Vertiv (VRT 3.13%), and Eaton (ETN 1.79%), this massive spending could be the beginning of a supercycle for their respective industries. These companies benefit from strong positions across infrastructure, power, and cooling solutions, with these trends providing a powerful tailwind going forward.

Image source: Getty Images.

Quanta Services has made strategic acquisitions to capitalize on the infrastructure boom Quanta Services provides turnkey infrastructure solutions that span the entire power delivery process, from constructing power generation facilities and high-voltage grid interconnections to the critical-path electrical systems inside the data centers. The company has positioned itself as a key partner for technology giants to help support this buildout.

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Quanta has made strategic investments to strengthen its position in this growing market. In 2024, it acquired Cupertino Electric for approximately $2 billion, adding specialized low-voltage electrical engineering and modularization services tailored to the technology sector. It followed this up last year by acquiring Dynamic Systems for approximately $1.5 billion, providing it with mechanical, plumbing, and process infrastructure for large-load facilities, including data centers and industrial facilities.

The hyperscaler data center boom is a massive tailwind, as seen in its project backlog (the total value of work contracted but not yet completed). By the end of last year, Quanta's backlog surged to $44 billion, a 27.5% increase in the past year. Goldman Sachs analyst Ati Modak sees these trends driving strong earnings per share (EPS) growth of 17% to 18% compounded annually over the next five years.

Vertiv's prefab data center solutions to speed up time to market Vertiv also provides data center infrastructure, including power management, cooling systems, integrated rack solutions, and related services such as maintenance. The robust investment from hyperscalers has led to unprecedented demand for Vertiv's products. In the fourth quarter, the company saw a staggering 252% year-over-year growth in organic orders. As a result, its total backlog more than doubled in one year, to a record $15.0 billion.

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Hyperscalers are prioritizing speed to market to bring AI capacity online while managing power needs. To meet this need, Vertiv provides prefabricated infrastructure, such as Vertiv OneCore and SmartRun. These modular solutions allow hyperscalers to deploy 12.5-megawatt building blocks that can scale up to massive 2-gigawatt sites, reducing on-site construction time and complexity.

Vertiv is scaling its operational capacity to meet this robust demand, and announced it would increase its capital expenditures from a historical average of 2 to 3% of sales to 3 to 4% of sales this year to support anticipated revenue growth. Looking forward, Vertiv projects its total organic sales will grow by roughly 28% in 2026, generating approximately $13.5 billion in revenue.

Mega projects are driving strong growth for Eaton Eaton is another supplier of power management and electrical components for data centers and industrial operators. The company is leaning into the robust demand for data centers, and last year it spent $9.5 billion to acquire Boyd Thermal, which specializes in liquid cooling systems needed to keep next-generation AI chips from overheating.

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The acquisition is part of Eaton's broader "chip-to-grid" strategy, an end-to-end framework for managing extreme power and thermal demands in next-generation data centers. The company has noted a massive surge in "mega projects" (those valued at over $1 billion) and a $3 billion pipeline in North America. Eaton management notes the company has an impressive win rate of about 40% on its megaproject bids.

In the fourth quarter, Eaton's data center orders in the Electrical Americas segment surged by approximately 200% year-over-year. Data center revenue grew by 40% in the quarter, helping push the Electrical Americas segment's total backlog to an all-time record of $13.2 billion (a 31% increase).

Looking ahead, Eaton expects some margin pressure as it front-loads costs to ramp up capacity. In the longer term, analysts project Eaton's earnings per share to grow at double-digit rates annually over the next several years.

Kodal Minerals PLC (AIM:KOD) CEO, Bernard Aylward, talked with Proactive about the company’s latest operational progress at the Bougouni Lithium Project in Mali, ongoing shipments to China, and the newly announced arbitration process relating to a $15 million payment connected to a 2024 agreement with the Mali government.

Aylward explained that Kodal Minerals PLC has entered arbitration following discussions with joint venture partner Hainan Mining Co. Ltd regarding an indemnity claim under the existing financing agreement. He stated that the parties hold “diametrically opposed views” and said the company is comfortable allowing a third party to reach a decision while discussions continue during the arbitration process.

Despite the dispute, Aylward emphasised that the underlying partnership remains strong, with both parties committed to advancing Bougouni, including planning for stage two development and a significant 2026 work programme involving drilling and engineering studies.

Operationally, Bougouni is performing well. The company recently completed its second shipment, receiving an initial 95% payment of just under US$24 million for nearly 20,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate. A third shipment is anticipated in late March or early April. Aylward stressed, “we’re selling into a very high price, lithium market, and our product is in strong demand,” noting that Hainan Mining is keen to secure as much product as possible.

He added that mining, processing, and logistics are progressing smoothly, with product being transported to port, shipped to China, and generating revenue.

Proactive: Bernard, very good to speak with you. You've announced you've entered arbitration over the $15 million payment to the government of Mali. This dates back to 2024. Can you tell us the latest?

Bernard Aylward: Good morning, Stephen. The announcement went out today clarifying that we have had several discussions between ourselves and Hainan Mining Co. Ltd relating to this indemnity claim from Hainan, relating to the MoU signed with the Mali government for the transfer of the mining licence to our mining company in Mali. Hainan has claimed an indemnity under our financing agreement.

Our position was that the indemnity did not apply in this situation. Our discussions haven't led to a resolution, and we are happy to see it go to a third party for a decision. We know the arbitration process can take a lengthy period, and we expect during this process to continue discussions with Hainan Mining regarding the indemnity claim.

Proactive: Kodal Mining UK (KMUK) is 51% owned by Hainan and 49% by Kodal. How has this dispute affected the relationship with your joint venture partner, and is the underlying partnership still strong?

Bernard Aylward: You see this in lots of situations where there are disputes within a joint venture, but the underlying partnership remains strong. Both parties are dedicated to the advancement of the Bougouni Lithium Project. We are working very hard to make sure the project operates at its best capacity.

At our recent board meeting, we discussed at length the project plan for the stage two development and the significant work programme for 2026, where we intend to continue drilling, engineering studies and planning. The partnership for the development and operation at Bougouni remains very strong. The arbitration reflects that we have two parties with diametrically opposed views, and we need a third party to help resolve that.

Proactive: Give us an update on what's happening on the ground at the Bougouni Lithium Project at the moment. Are shipments still continuing?

Bernard Aylward: On site, we are continuing with mining and processing. We are reaching nameplate production, although we were slightly short in January and February. The operation has been going very well. Blasting and mining has improved, and we are building up the ROM stockpile to stay ahead of the wet season.

We are trucking product to port. Our second shipment left in early February. We received the initial 95% payment of just under US$24 million for just under 20,000 tonnes loaded onto that vessel. It is expected in Singapore within the next week and then on to Hainan shortly after. That side of the business is going very well, and we anticipate a third shipment in late March or early April.

We are selling into a very high-price lithium market, and our product is in strong demand. Our partner Hainan Mining is very keen to take all the product it can get. At Bougouni, it is running well. We are transporting to port, shipping to China, receiving income and operating well.

Proactive: Bernard, I hope you'll continue to keep us updated with your progress. Thank you very much for taking the time today.

HomeStock IdeasLong IdeasTech 

SummarynLIGHT, Inc. has completed its pivot to aerospace and defense, with A&D now comprising 67% of FY25 revenue.LASR’s gross and operating margins have rebounded to five-year highs, driven by more profitable, stickier A&D contracts.The stock’s current 12x sales multiple prices in aggressive defense-tech growth, but guidance and sector tailwinds support further upside.I reiterate a Buy rating, though the margin of safety is reduced after a 600% rally and ongoing execution risks remain. Michele Ursi/iStock via Getty Images

The last time I covered nLIGHT, Inc. (LASR) was 12 months ago, and the stock is up nearly 600% in the period since then. I called it a tentative Buy, at the

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Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

TLDR: Fidelity data shows Bitcoin volatility hitting record lows even months after the 2025 price peak near $126,000. Public companies and ETFs now hold nearly 12% of Bitcoin supply, signaling major institutional accumulation. Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio has stayed near 2x realized value this cycle, far below peaks seen in past bull markets. Fidelity’s profit-to-volatility ratio has remained above 0.015 since 2023, marking the longest stability period. Bitcoin’s market behavior may be entering a new phase, according to recent research from Fidelity Digital Assets. 

The firm argues that long-standing boom-and-bust cycles could weaken as institutional demand reshapes the market. Data shows volatility hitting record lows even months after Bitcoin reached new price highs. 

The question now is whether the classic four-year Bitcoin cycle still defines the crypto market.

Fidelity Digital Assets just published a research report arguing Bitcoin's classic four-year boom-bust cycle is over.

Their core finding: Bitcoin's market cap hit $2.5 trillion at its October 2025 peak, but one-year realized volatility hit 17 new all-time lows in January 2026.… pic.twitter.com/PcLDPLqXkj

— TFTC (@TFTC21) March 6, 2026

Bitcoin Volatility Trends Challenge the Classic Four-Year Cycle Bitcoin reached a market capitalization near $2.5 trillion during its October 2025 peak. Prices climbed above $126,000 during that rally.

However, volatility moved in the opposite direction. One-year realized volatility recorded 17 new all-time lows in January 2026.

Source: Fidelity Digital Assets According to Fidelity Digital Assets research, this pattern differs sharply from previous cycles. Historically, volatility surged as Bitcoin approached market peaks.

The current trend suggests a shift toward a larger and more liquid market. Fidelity compared Bitcoin’s growth to large-cap technology companies reaching maturity.

The firm notes that Bitcoin’s market size has expanded rapidly across cycles. The asset is now twice as large as its 2021 peak valuation.

It also stands nearly ten times larger than the 2017 cycle peak. Compared with 2013, Bitcoin’s market capitalization has expanded more than 200-fold.

Fidelity’s data shows volatility began declining in late 2023. At the time, Bitcoin traded near $27,000 before starting its latest rally.

Institutional Demand Reshapes Bitcoin Market Structure Demand patterns have changed significantly as institutions enter the market. Public companies and exchange-traded products now hold a growing share of supply.

According to Fidelity Digital Assets, 49 public companies hold more than 1,000 Bitcoin each. Combined holdings exceed one million BTC.

Source: Fidelity Digital Assets That amount represents more than five percent of Bitcoin’s circulating supply. The cohort has steadily increased holdings since early 2020.

Exchange-traded products have accelerated institutional accumulation. Spot Bitcoin ETPs launched in the United States in January 2024.

By January 2026, those vehicles collectively held nearly 1.3 million Bitcoin. This equals roughly 6.4 percent of the circulating supply.

Fidelity reported that the leading Bitcoin ETF surpassed $75 billion in assets within two years. Gold’s GLD ETF required almost seven years to reach that milestone.

On-chain metrics also suggest a calmer market cycle. Bitcoin’s market value to realized value ratio has remained near two throughout the current bull market.

Earlier cycles saw sharper expansions. The ratio reached six during 2013 and four during both the 2017 and 2021 cycles.

Fidelity estimates that reaching a ratio of four again would imply a $4.5 trillion Bitcoin market cap. That level corresponds to roughly $225,000 per coin.

The firm also introduced a “Profit to Volatility Ratio” metric. It compares profitable addresses with realized volatility.

That ratio has remained above 0.015 since late 2023. Fidelity describes this period as the longest stretch of stability in Bitcoin’s history.

Journalist

Posted: March 7, 2026

Bitcoin [BTC] rallied as high as $74,050 on Wednesday, 04 March. However, it fell below the $70k support in the past 24 hours of trading. The move underscored that aggressive selling pressure, which drove BTC to $60k in February, has cooled slightly, but a broader market recovery was not yet in sight.

AMBCrypto reported that the Bull Score Index was near 10, signaling weak market sentiment. The Coinbase Premium Index, which had risen into positive territory in recent days, reverted to negative territory too.

Weak participants and sentiment hinted at limited conviction in the rally. This means that the current Bitcoin retracement could extend further south. Hence, the question is – How much further, and how soon?

Bitcoin under pressure yet again In a post on X, crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr noted that selling pressure from long-term holders might be on the rise once again.

Long-term holders are defined as the cohort of Bitcoin holders who have held their supply without moving it for at least 155 days.

At the same time, long-term holders remained profitable on average despite the 46% price drawdown since October. At the previous cycle’s bottom, long-term holders faced high losses as prices fell below their average cost basis.

At the time of writing, this cost basis was at $39.8k. And, a major price drop towards this level is still likely later in 2026.

The argument for a Bitcoin rally towards $83k Expect the volatility to remain high over the next month or two. The 30-day MVRV ratio reached local highs, showing that 30-day holders were, on average, nearly 8% in profits. Given the news developments recently, profit-taking might be entirely reasonable.

The 90-day and 180-day MVRV ratios were more interesting though. They had many similarities to what happened in December-January.

Back then, the 30-day MVRV kept jumping into small profit margins. The mid-January rally took the 90-day holders into profit (on average) as well. Thereafter, a strong retracement wave commenced as Bitcoin fell to $60k.

In the coming weeks, Bitcoin may surge towards $83k and even $89k to hunt short liquidations and lull the market into bullishness, before falling lower again. Traders can keep an eye on the 90-day MVRV metric and similarities to January.

The short-term Bitcoin outlook Another crypto analyst, Darkfost, pointed out that short-term holders (holders of BTC aged 155 days or younger) had sent a whopping 27.5k BTC to exchanges in profit. This profit-taking selling pressure likely led to the price drop below $70k.

The amount of STH BTC sent to exchanges at a profit was also among the highest seen in recent weeks. It is possible that fear and uncertainty in the coming days could drive prices below $68k.

Final Summary Long-term and short-term holders’ selling pressure saw Bitcoin lose its tenuous grip on the $70k round-number support. Short-term holders’ realized price was at $68k, and a bullish reaction from here might be a possibility over the next few days.

Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Just over 10,000 Bitcoin — out of nearly 20 million in circulation — sits in wallets actually exposed to a quantum attack.

That number comes from CoinShares, a crypto asset management firm, which found in February that only 10,230 coins are both vulnerable to quantum computing and tied to wallet addresses with publicly visible cryptographic keys.

At current prices, that amounts to close to $730 million — a sum the firm described as resembling a routine trade, not a market crisis.

A Steel Frame Takes Shape In Chicago The finding lands at an awkward moment. This week, PsiQuantum co-founder Peter Shadbolt posted a photo to X showing the Chicago construction site where his company is building what it calls the world’s first commercially useful quantum computer.

In six days, workers had erected 500 tons of steel. The structure will house a machine capable of running 1 million qubits — a unit of quantum computing power.

Scientists say that capacity is, in theory, sufficient to crack the type of encryption protecting Bitcoin wallets.

Time to build really big quantum computers. Five hundred tons of steel up in six days. Cryoplant delivery date breathing down our neck. Grateful to the many hundreds of people locked in to this mission pic.twitter.com/eqSwsESusK

— Pete Shadbolt (@PeteShadbolt) March 5, 2026

The company raised $1 billion for the project, announced in September, with chipmaker Nvidia as a key partner.

PsiQuantum says the facility is designed to support fault-tolerant quantum computing and serve as infrastructure for next-generation AI systems.

For context, the largest quantum computer currently operating at the California Institute of Technology runs on 6,100 qubits. A jump to 1 million represents a scale that has no precedent in the field.

What Would Actually Be At Risk Bitcoin’s encryption relies on 256-bit cryptographic keys. A preprint paper published last month put the number of qubits needed to break 2048-bit keys at around 100,000 — suggesting that a 1 million-qubit machine could, mathematically, do the job.

But experts have long noted that raw qubit count is only part of the equation. Error rates and system stability matter just as much.

BTCUSD trading at $68,470 on the 24-hour chart: TradingView Not all Bitcoin wallets face equal exposure. Coins held in addresses that have never made a transaction — known as unspent transaction outputs, or UTXOs — are considered most at risk, particularly those whose public keys have been exposed on the blockchain. Many of those wallets date back to Bitcoin’s earliest days.

Developers Are Already Working On A Fix Bitcoin developers have been debating how to respond. One option on the table is a hard fork — a fundamental change to the network’s code — to introduce post-quantum cryptography.

A co-author of BIP-360, a proposal aimed at making Bitcoin quantum-resistant, said that the upgrade could take as long as seven years to fully implement.

PsiQuantum, for its part, has said it has no intention of using its technology to attack Bitcoin. Co-founder Terry Rudolph made that point publicly at a Bitcoin quantum summit last July.

Experts in the field say a genuine quantum threat to Bitcoin is still at least a decade away.

For now, construction continues in Chicago — 500 tons of steel and counting.

Featured image from Unsplash+/Alex Shuper, chart from TradingView

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