Market Signal Briefing

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PennantPark Floating Rate Capital (PFLT) PennantPark Floating Rate Capital (NYSE:PFLT) invests in middle-market floating rate senior secured loans, operating as a business development company. The stock currently trades at $9.51, offering a 13.2% dividend yield. That’s an eye-catching number for income investors. But can they actually afford it?

Metric Value Annual Dividend $1.23 per share Dividend Yield 13.2% Payment Frequency Monthly ($0.1025/month) Consecutive Years of Payments 14+ years Most Recent Payment February 2, 2026 The Coverage Math Looks Tight This is where things get concerning. PFLT reported diluted EPS of $0.72 over the trailing twelve months. Against the $1.23 annual dividend, that gives an earnings payout ratio of 171%. The company is paying out significantly more than it earns.

Metric TTM Value Assessment Earnings Payout Ratio 171% Concerning Net Income (FY2025) $66.4M Net Investment Income (Q4 2025) $27.5M The recent earnings trend makes this worse. Net income fell 27.8% year-over-year from $91.8M to $66.4M in fiscal 2025. Even more alarming, Q1 2025 saw net income collapse to just $1.2M. That kind of volatility is dangerous for dividend sustainability.

The company did report net investment income of $27.5M in Q4 2025, up from $18.0M the prior year. That’s a positive. But realized losses of $14.3M and unrealized depreciation of $46.1M show portfolio stress.

Leverage Is Climbing Fast The balance sheet adds another layer of risk. Total debt jumped to $1.78B in fiscal 2025, up 50.9% from the prior year. Meanwhile, shareholder equity grew only 22.5% to $1.07B.

Metric Value Assessment Debt-to-Equity 1.65x Elevated Total Debt $1.78B Aggressive Cash on Hand $122.7M Thin Buffer That 1.65x debt-to-equity ratio is aggressive for a BDC, especially with earnings under pressure. Cash of $122.7M doesn’t provide much cushion against $184.6M in short-term debt.

Management Stays Committed CEO Art Penn struck a cautiously optimistic tone, noting “NII remains stable given interest rate environment” and “targeting growth in NII as we ramp the new joint venture.” The company launched a new joint venture with Hamilton Lane to expand middle-market lending, which could support future income.

The dividend has been paid consistently for 14+ years without cuts. That track record matters. But the current rate of $0.1025 per month has been unchanged since June 2023.

This Dividend Carries Elevated Risk Dividend Safety Rating: Elevated Risk

The 171% earnings payout ratio is the core problem. PFLT is paying out more than it earns, relying on net investment income to bridge the gap. With earnings down 28% year-over-year and quarterly volatility spiking, that’s not a sustainable model. The rising debt load and thin cash position add further pressure.

The dividend sustainability depends on whether net investment income can stabilize above $100M annually and whether the new joint venture delivers meaningful growth. Further deterioration in earnings or additional debt raises to fund operations would increase dividend risk. Investors should carefully weigh the 13% yield against these fundamental concerns.

12h30 ▪ 4 min read ▪ by Luc Jose A.

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While the crypto market wavers and investors hold their breath, every statement from a sector leader becomes a decisive signal. Michael Saylor, co-founder and executive chairman of Strategy, reappears at the center of the game at a critical moment. As rumors of bitcoin sales spread, he answers frankly. Between prolonged price drops, loss-making results, and stock market tension, his statement sounds like an act of faith, or a risky bet, to defend a strategy that has become emblematic.

In brief Michael Saylor states that rumors of Strategy selling bitcoins are unfounded. The company would have sufficient liquidity to last 2.5 years without selling its BTC. Even if bitcoin falls to $8,000, Strategy would prefer refinancing over selling. Saylor reaffirms that Strategy will continue to buy bitcoin each quarter, without exception. Saylor reaffirms his absolute commitment to Bitcoin In a series of statements, Michael Saylor dispelled fears of an imminent sale of Strategy’s bitcoin holdings, as the market plunges into extreme fear.

“Concerns that Strategy will sell its bitcoins are unfounded,” he stated. To strengthen this position, he indicated that the company has enough liquidity to cover operating expenses, including dividend payments and debt service, for up to two and a half years. He even specified that in case the price falls to $8,000, Strategy plans to “refinance the debt” rather than sell its cryptos.

Saylor also recalled that the company will continue its accumulation strategy regardless of market conditions. “We will buy bitcoin every quarter, forever,” he declared. This statement fits into a long-term vision based on a deep conviction, as bitcoin is considered, according to him, a superior store of value.

To support his position, Saylor presents several operational and financial arguments :

Strategy would have enough cash to avoid any short or medium-term BTC sales ; The company believes it can cover its debt and dividend obligations without liquidating its cryptos ; In case of extreme market downturn, refinancing is preferred over selling, even with BTC at $8,000 ; The quarterly bitcoin buying policy remains unchanged, regardless of market conditions. Through this statement, Michael Saylor aims to reaffirm the stability of the strategy deployed over several years, while countering concerns expressed by some analysts regarding persistent downward pressure on the market.

Massive losses and growing market skepticism Beyond principle statements, Strategy’s financial reality is more delicate. The latest quarterly report shows a net loss of $12.4 billion in Q4 2025, a figure directly linked to the price drop, which is far below the company’s average crypto acquisition cost.

With over 714,000 BTC in its portfolio, purchased on average around $76,000 each, the company currently shows significant latent losses on paper. Strategy’s (MSTR) stock has dropped more than 70% from its highs while short sellers’ interest on the stock has surged, reflecting a loss of market confidence in the company’s ability to maintain this strategy smoothly.

This situation makes external financing prospects more complex. The heavy discount of the stock relative to the theoretical value of bitcoins held reduces the company’s maneuvering room, especially if it wishes to issue new shares or raise funds without significantly diluting existing shareholders.

Saylor’s displayed enthusiasm thus contrasts with signals sent by the market, which seems to anticipate possible difficulties if the Bitcoin price does not rebound sustainably. Strategy is currently going through a period where its accumulation policy could be seen as a risky bet.

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Luc Jose A.

Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.

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The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.

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Three Cardano ecosystem announcements landed onstage at Consensus Hong Kong yesterday, spanning cross-chain rails, a new stablecoin rollout timeline, and a privacy-focused network’s march to mainnet.

#1 Cardano Taps LayerZero Intersect said via X its Critical Cardano Integrations workstream has approved bringing LayerZero into the Cardano ecosystem, positioning the move as the network’s largest interoperability expansion to date. In its post, Intersect framed the integration as a step-change in access to cross-chain assets and infrastructure:

“LayerZero is one of the most widely adopted omnichain messaging protocols in Web3, connecting 150+ blockchains and enabling access to 400+ tokens and $80B+ in omnichain assets. This integration unlocks the largest cross-chain connectivity expansion in Cardano’s history, opening pathways to stablecoin liquidity, Bitcoin-backed assets, tokenized real-world assets, and shared DeFi infrastructure across the broader crypto ecosystem.”

A companion write-up describes the effort in similar terms, saying the protocol “connects over 160 blockchains” and “has facilitated over $200 billion in cross-chain volume,” with Cardano gaining technical access to “over 400 tokens” and “$80 billion in omnichain assets” once the LayerZero endpoint is deployed.

The post argues that LayerZero’s messaging-layer approach is chain-agnostic “regardless of the underlying execution model,” explicitly flagging Cardano’s extended UTXO design as a historical friction point for tooling built around account-based chains.

Intersect said delivery work now moves into deployment, with “further milestones and timelines to be shared as progress continues.”

#2 USDCx Gets A Launch Date Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson used the event to put a calendar marker on USDCx, saying the product now has a target launch window at the end of February. “We’ve announced not long ago that we will have USDCx. Now we have a launch date for USDCx, end of February. We’ve done some amazing engineering to have a beautiful UX. You can go straight from any wallet to Coinbase, or Binance, and back, and there’s instant convertibility to USDC,” Hoskinson said.

He also claimed feature advantages versus standard USDC in circulation, saying USDCx has “privacy, and it’s also immutable and irreversible, so it’s actually better [than USDC].”

#3 Midnight Targets Mainnet Before End Of March Midnight, the privacy-oriented network tied to the broader Cardano ecosystem, said its mainnet is now imminent. “On the ConsensusHK stage, we shared that Midnight mainnet will officially go live before the end of March,” the team posted via X, calling it “a major milestone and the beginning of a live, production network designed to support early applications built around selective disclosure and real-world privacy.”

Midnight added that mainnet is “foundational,” describing it as the stable base for teams to “launch, test, and iterate,” while setting expectations for “rapid protocol and tooling expansion ahead.”

At press time, Cardano traded at $0.261.

ADA hovers above key support, 1-week chart | Source: ADAUSDT on TradingView.com Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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Grayscale has submitted an amendment to its Sui ETF application with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). SUI price increased by 7%, as investors see the development as a major progress towards the first spot SUI ETF launch.

Grayscale Updates Sui ETF Filing with the US SEC Crypto asset manager Grayscale Investments has submitted Amendment No. 2 to its spot Sui ETF filing with the U.S. SEC. The issuer seeks to convert its existing trust into a spot ETF focused on SUI, the native token of the Sui network.

In the latest filing, Grayscale amended details on the structure, operations, and proposed transition to spot Sui ETF upon SEC effectiveness. It includes the second amended and restated declaration of the trust and trust agreement, form of participant agreement, and opinions of special Delaware counsel and tax counsel of the trust.

Grayscale Sui Staking ETF S-1 Amendment. Source: US SEC It will list on NYSE Arca under the same GSUI ticker. The issuer has yet to reveal the management fees, the staking provider, and any fee waiver. The issuer intends to rename the trust as Grayscale Sui Staking ETF.

The Bank of New York Mellon will serve as the transfer agent and the administrator of the Grayscale Sui Staking ETF. Meanwhile, Coinbase is named as the prime broker and Coinbase Custody Trust Company as the custodian of the trust.

SUI Price Soars Over 7% SUI price jumped more than 7% to trade near $0.95. The 24-hour low and high are $0.877 and $0.956, respectively. Furthermore, trading volume has increased by almost 45% over the last 24 hours, indicating a significant rebound in trading interest despite US jobs data that has faded Fed rate-cut odds.

The derivatives market saw significant buying activity over the last few hours, according to CoinGlass data. The total SUI futures open interest jumped 5% to $524 million in the past 24 hours. At the time of writing, 4-hour SUI futures OI climbed almost 2%, up nearly 1.50% on Binance, 3% on OKX, and 1.33% on Bybit.

Stock Futures rise after 130K jobs added. Bitcoin at $67,200.

Bitcoin rose after the U.S. jobs report indicated employment growth in many sectors of the economy was restrained even as the headline number surged. Feb 12, 2026, 11:43 a.m.

UNI rose after BlackRock's purchase of the token (appshunter.io/Unsplash modified by CoinDesk)

What to know: Bitcoin rose to near $67,800 even as a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report pushed back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.Derivatives data show stabilizing bearish momentum and rising demand for short-term downside protection, with options traders paying a "panic premium" for puts.UNI rose after BlackRock decided to list its $2.2 billion tokenized U.S. Treasury fund BUIDL on Uniswap and took a strategic stake in the exchange and the governance token.Bitcoin BTC$68,017.87 is hovering near $67,800, up on the day, as crypto markets took in January’s stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report without an initial selloff.

The resilience is feeding a shift in sentiment, with the muted reaction possibly a signal of seller exhaustion and growing appetite for risk, despite a tough macro backdrop. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) has gained 1.5% since midnight UTC with all but one token, BCH$514.17, advancing.

STORY CONTINUES BELOW

The U.S. added 130,000 jobs in January, nearly double the expected 70,000. That data sharply reduced the odds of an early interest rate-cut by the Federal Reserve, pushing expectations out to July.

Typically, lowering rate-cut odds would hurt risk assets like cryptocurrencies. The report, however, also showed job growth remained concentrated in health care-related sectors while others remained mostly little changed. That suggests the red-hot headline number is masking underlying cooling across the broader economy.

Bitcoin’s resilience suggests seller exhaustion even as sentiment remains low. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is now at 5, its lowest level since the collapse of FTX in 2022.

Derivatives PositioningBearish momentum is stabilizing, with open interest holding steady near $15.8 billion while perpetual funding rates have swung back to neutral or positive territory. Sentiment is notably bullish on Bybit (+9.5%) and Binance (+3.4%), though Hyperliquid remains a bearish outlier at -4.5%. The three-month basis remains stagnant at around 2%, suggesting that institutional conviction has yet to follow this retail-driven shift in funding.In the bitcoin options market, defensive caution is intensifying, and the one-week 25-delta skew dropped to 19%, with puts now accounting for 54% of 24-hour volume. The implied volatility (IV) term structure has shifted into short-term backwardation, reflecting a "panic premium" as traders pay for immediate downside protection.Coinglass data shows $342 million in 24-hour liquidations, with a 49-51 split between longs and shorts. BTC ($145 million), ETH ($84 million) and others ($18 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations. The Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $68,800 as a core liquidation level to monitor, in case of a price rise.Token TalkBlackRock (BLK) is bringing its $2.2 billion tokenized U.S. Treasury fund, BUIDL, to Uniswap, giving decentralized finance (DeFi) users access to Treasury yields through the platform.This marks the first time the world’s largest asset manager is listing a tokenized product on a decentralized exchange. BlackRock also disclosed a strategic investment in Uniswap and bought an undisclosed amount of UNI, the exchange’s governance token. UNI surged 25% on the news, climbing to $4.11. It has since dropped back to $3.35. This appears to be the first time a major financial institution has directly invested in a decentralized finance project's governance token.To enable the move, BlackRock worked with Uniswap Labs and compliance firm Securitize. BUIDL trades will route through UniswapX, an offchain quote system that sources prices from approved market makers and settles trades onchain.Investors must be qualified through Securitize, which ensures compliance with U.S. securities regulations.More For You

Ark Invest buys Bullish stock for 9th straight day in $11.6 million purchase

1 hour ago

Ark bought around 2.1 million BLSH shares in the past nine trading days, valued about $58.8 million based on the stock's closing price each day.

What to know:

Ark Invest bought $11.6 million worth of shares in cryptocurrency exchange Bullish on Wednesday, the ninth consecutive day the investment manager has bought the stock.The investment company has bought around 2.1 million BLSH shares over the period, worth about $58.75 million based on the stock's closing price each day.The Cathie Wood-led company also bought $33.8 million of crypto-friendly investment platform Robinhood (HOOD) shares and $4.37 million worth of stock in stablecoin developer Circle Internet (CRCL) on Wednesday.Top Stories

JPMorgan is positive that cryptocurrencies will rebound in 2026. Bitcoin production cost has dropped to around $77,000. BTC has gained 0.08% over the last 24 hours. JPMorgan has cited its optimism for cryptocurrencies after the BTC production cost declined. The bank is bullish for the segment in 2026 despite tokens recording lows since the recent days. It has also addressed a connection between BTC and Gold to reiterate its stance towards the flagship crypto.

JPMorgan on Cryptocurrencies JPMorgan has noted a decline in Bitcoin’s production cost to around $77,000 and is anticipating a new equilibrium for the token. Most importantly, the bank has estimated that cryptocurrencies could recover in the remaining months of the year, given there is a renewed institutional inflow and the possibility for clarity on US crypto legislation.

Notably, a prolonged trading below the production cost could pressurize miners, but JPMorgan expects the trend to self-correct as the aggregate production cost could lower further.

JPMorgan has further laid out its expectation by saying that the shift in the crypto market could be led primarily by institutional investors instead of retail traders or DATs, that is, digital asset treasuries.

The BTC and Gold Connection JPMorgan has also noted a connection between Gold and BTC. The bank has underlined that even though the precious metal has outperformed the flagship token since October 2025, it has also gained higher volatility. This, in the long-term, makes Bitcoin tokens more attractive even though their prices are significantly down.

BTC was last seen trading at $67,160.83, up by 0.08% over the last 24 hours, and down by 5.61% in a week. It is forecasted to grow by 30.40% in the next 3 months to exchange hands at around $88,242, amid a high volatility of 11.72%. A decline after brief consolidation has triggered bearish sentiments, but the 14-Day RSI remains neutral at 32.07 points.

Crypto Market in General Overall sentiments across the crypto market are bearish, as reflected in the FGI of 8 points. The collective market cap has recovered slightly by 0.69% to $2.3 trillion; however, it remains massively down from a high of over $3 trillion.

A common belief is that the crypto market would eventually rebound if further regulatory clarifications underline the progressive space. This includes the much-talked-about Clarity Act. Also, the US Jan 2026 Employment data has signalled a low chance of a Fed rate cut in March 2026.

Highlighted Crypto News Today:

CertiK Tightens KYC and Strengthens Oversight After Huione Backlash, CEO Denies IPO Plans

Curious by nature, Ankur's core topic is Web3, but he's a versatile writer who can cover many more subjects. If you catch up with him in his free time, you'll find discussions often center around different movies and TV series. He's an easy person to talk to—you can literally chat with him about anything.

Ethereum (ETH) traded lower on Thursday and remained under pressure into Wednesday, following a turbulent week marked by a broad cryptocurrency market downturn.

Notably, over the past week, the crypto asset has declined nearly 13%, reflecting a wave of investor caution and renewed fears that the recent rally may be running out of steam.

However, despite this weakness, large investors appear to be making moves as the price consolidates following a brief flash drop over a few weeks.

According to blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain, on Monday, a wallet associated with Tom Lee’s Fundstrat Bitmine made a bold move during the market drop, acquiring 20,000 ETH, worth approximately $41.98 million. 

Notably, such large-scale accumulation during periods of heavy selling often draws the attention of traders, as it can signal confidence from deep-pocketed investors betting on a price rebound.

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That said, while some interpret this purchase as a show of conviction in Ethereum’s long-term value, others caution that even whales can misjudge timing, particularly in a market that remains sentiment-driven and highly correlated to macroeconomic uncertainty. Nevertheless, amid the price slump, market analysts are divided about whether ETH’s recent dip could mark a turning point.

According to popular analyst Benjamin Cowen, ETH appears to have found a “home” near the $2,000 level and could consolidate there in the near term. However, the analyst warned that ETH may still see one final dip toward the $1,500 area later this year, a move he described as a potential last shakeout before a broader bullish cycle and a push toward a new all-time high.

Elsewhere, Ali Charts noted that the Ethereum price has fallen below a key historical metric, the 0.80 Pricing Band, a zone that previously aligned with market bottoms.

“The last three times Ethereum dipped below the 0.80 Pricing Band, it marked a market bottom. With the price dropping below $1,959, that signal is flashing again,” he noted.

Moreover, if historical patterns repeat, Ethereum’s current zone could represent a potential accumulation range for long-term investors. 

However, others remain wary, emphasizing that technical signals must align with broader sentiment and liquidity trends before confirming a sustainable recovery.

Analyst Ted warned that Ethereum’s failure to sustain levels above $2,100 raises the risk of further decline. 

“ETH failed to hold above the $2,100 level. Now, Ethereum needs to hold the $2,000 level, otherwise the entire pump could be retraced,” he stated.

Additionally, analyst Brave New Coin highlighted that the $2,100 level has repeatedly acted as a pivotal threshold influencing short-term trend direction.

“Ethereum is hovering near a pivotal $2,100 level that has repeatedly dictated trend direction, leaving traders watching closely to see whether this zone sparks recovery or another rejection,” he said.

At press time, ETH was trading at $1,991, reflecting a 4.01% decline in the past 72 hours.

The network transitioned to proof-of-stake and coincides with the rollout of the ESP token, which is used for staking, securing the network and protocol participation. Feb 12, 2026, 12:00 p.m.

The Espresso Network has officially transitioned to a permissionless proof-of-stake blockchain with the launch of its ESP token, opening participation in securing the network and distributing a community airdrop representing 10% of total supply.

STORY CONTINUES BELOW

The transition coincides with the rollout of the ESP token, which is used for staking, securing the network and protocol participation. The Espresso Foundation said the total supply is 3.59 billion ESP, with 10% allocated to a fully unlocked community airdrop aimed at early ecosystem participants and users of Espresso-integrated rollups.

“There were various ways of determining who was eligible,” Espresso Systems CEO and co-founder Ben Fisch told CoinDesk in an interview. “The idea here is to get the token circulating among members of our extended community, but also to reward early participation and adoption of the Espresso network.”

The foundation said additional token supply has been allocated to contributors, investors, future ecosystem incentives and long-term network sustainability, with most allocations subject to vesting.

Espresso acts as a coordination and finality layer for rollups, which operate as independent execution environments. Fisch said the network is designed specifically to serve layer-2 blockchains rather than compete with them at the execution layer.

“Layer-2s need only one thing from a layer-1, which is finality,” Fisch said. “How well a layer-1 provides services to a layer-2 is measured in two things, how secure that blockchain and how fast it can provide finality.”

“Unlike Ethereum, or any other existing layer-1s, it is designed for layer-2s,” he added. “It doesn’t compete with L2s. It’s designed for L2s.”

Espresso currently finalizes rollup blocks in about six seconds on average, compared with Ethereum’s 12-minute-plus finality window (finalizing blocks means that they become immutable). That gap, Fisch argued, has become a structural bottleneck as applications and liquidity spread across multiple rollups rather than remaining concentrated on a single chain.

“Fast finality isn’t a nice-to-have for rollups,” Fisch said. “It’s the missing piece that transforms isolated chains into a unified, composable ecosystem.”

The launch comes as the Ethereum ecosystem debates the future role of layer-2 networks, following recent comments from Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin suggesting the network may eventually pivot away from an L2-centric roadmap as improvements to Ethereum’s base layer reduce the need for rollups as a scaling solution.

That debate has raised broader questions about whether layer-2 networks are extensions of Ethereum or independent blockchains in their own right, and whether infrastructure designed primarily to scale Ethereum will remain relevant as the base layer becomes faster and cheaper.

As Ethereum’s long-term scaling strategy comes under renewed scrutiny, Espresso is betting that demand for application-specific rollups, particularly from institutions and consumer platforms, will continue to grow regardless of Ethereum’s roadmap.

Read more: Espresso, project for composability between blockchains, pushes main product live

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Binance converts its $1 billion safety net into 15,000 BTC

1 hour ago

The crypto exchange finalized a 30-day plan to convert its stablecoin-backed user protection fund into 15,000 BTC, reinforcing bitcoin as its long-term reserve asset.

What to know:

Binance purchased a final 4,545 bitcoin, bringing SAFU holdings to 15,000 BTC worth about $1 billion at completion.The move comes after a January 30 announcement that the exchange would convert $1 billion worth of stablecoins into bitcoin.SAFU, created to protect users from hacks and unforeseen losses, is now fully backed by bitcoin, with a pledge to replenish funds if value falls below $800 million.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) has slipped below its consolidation zone and is facing sustained bearish pressure. Currently testing the $0.0000060 support at $0.00000604, market analyst HolderStat notes a break could accelerate a drop toward $0.0000055.

Shiba Inu enters a bear trap phase during accumulation, hinting at a possible 22x surge as analysts watch for a major breakout.

Newton Gitonga2 min read

12 February 2026, 12:08 PM

Shiba Inu price is currently navigating a pullback that analysts say often precedes breakouts and parabolic rallies. Market observers describe this stage as the “bear trap,” occurring during accumulation periods. While testing investor patience, the phase could set the stage for unprecedented price growth. Experts caution, however, that the exact bottom or timeframe for this phase remains uncertain.

SHIB Bear Trap Phase Signals Potential UpsideAccording to analyst Vuori Trading, the bear trap phase aims to confuse bearish investors before a potential bullish expansion. He referred to the current market phase as “pure manipulation” on X, emphasizing that SHIB could surge once accumulation concludes. Historically, bear traps mark the final stage of a broader accumulation cycle. This cycle follows the crash and retrace periods, which show distinct price behaviors.

The crash phase occurred after SHIB’s all-time high of $0.0000885 in 2021, sending the token down over 90% to $0.0000079 by June 2022. The retrace phase that followed provided temporary rebounds, with SHIB touching $0.0000456 in March 2024 and $0.0000334 in December 2024. The current accumulation began after SHIB slowly corrected to around $0.0000060, marking a steady loss of over 80% from prior highs. Analysts suggest the corrective phase may now be nearing its end.

Three Market Phases and a Potential 22x RallyThe accumulation phase is part of the three market stages that include crash, retrace, and expansion. Vuori Trading highlighted that once accumulation ends, SHIB could experience a massive price surge. He predicts the token could rise to $0.00014, representing a 2,233% gain from current levels. The forecast implies removing two zeroes from SHIB’s market price. At the time of writing, Shiba Inu trades at $0.000006145, suggesting a 5.78% increase in the last 24 hours.

Despite these projections, the analyst warned investors that market uncertainty could affect outcomes. He clarified that this is not financial advice and that failures in capital reallocation to meme coins could limit momentum. Nonetheless, the current bear trap and ongoing accumulation phase have drawn attention, as traders and analysts watch closely for signals of the next major upward move.

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Newton Gitonga covers cryptocurrencies, blockchain, and digital finance. He specializes in breaking down complex trends with clear, data-driven reporting. His work focuses on market analysis, technical insights, and the evolving role of altcoins in shaping global markets.

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Latest Shiba Inu News Today (SHIB)

Bitcoin opened the month with a sharp sell-off, continuing where it left off in January. The largest cryptocurrency briefly slid toward the $60,000 level a few days after changing hands at $90,000. The drop impacted the broader crypto market valuation and led to a wave of liquidations across leveraged positions.

At first glance, the weakness appeared to be a typical macro-driven move. Some pointed to cautious risk sentiment, while others noted selling from spot ETF holders. However, market makers may have played an equally important role in the recent price adjustment.

How Market Makers Added Pressure to the Bitcoin Crash Market makers are the participants who constantly place buy and sell orders on exchanges. Their job is to keep liquidity flowing so market users can enter and exit positions without significant delays or sharp price gaps. They usually capture the small difference between the bid and ask price rather than trying to predict the market’s direction.

To stay neutral, they hedge their exposure by buying or selling Bitcoin or related derivatives. But during periods of high volatility, those hedges can unintentionally amplify price swings.

According to Markus Thielen of 10x Research, this dynamic likely played out between Feb. 4 and Feb. 7, during which Bitcoin dropped from about $77,000 to near $60,000. Many options dealers were “short gamma” in the $60,000 to $75,000 range. In simple terms, they held options positions that required them to sell more BTC as the price fell in order to manage risk.

As Bitcoin slipped below $75,000, these firms had to sell spot or futures contracts to rebalance. That additional selling pressure contributed to the decline and created a technical loop in which falling prices triggered more hedging and subsequent selling.

Options Market Influence Is Growing Thielen estimates there was roughly $1.5 billion in negative gamma exposure across that price band. This cluster may explain why the decline accelerated and then stabilized once the selling pressure was absorbed near $60,000.

This type of behavior is common in traditional markets, but it is becoming more noticeable in crypto as the options market grows. When dealers are short gamma, they tend to move in the same direction as the market, which can intensify both corrections and rallies.

It is also not always bearish. In late 2023, similar positioning above $36,000 led market makers to buy as prices climbed, supporting Bitcoin’s move past $40,000.

For now, the recent episode shows that Bitcoin’s price is no longer driven only by sentiment and headlines. The structure of the derivatives market is increasingly shaping the momentum and range of the asset’s movements.

Where Whales Are Reallocating To While Bitcoin faces these technical hurdles, some large-scale holders are reallocating toward emerging projects. Recent market observations point toward Minotaurus (MTAUR), a project that presents notable growth prospects within its niche.

MTAUR is the native token of Minotaurus, a blockchain-based game in which players explore intricate mazes, battle enemies, and collect treasures. Currently priced at 0.00012663 USDT, Minotaurus offers a specialized entry point for those looking to accumulate tokens based on its projected trajectory.

For instance, an acquisition of approximately 790,000 MTAUR at current rates could see its value reach nearly 10,000 USDT if MTAUR hits the 0.012 USDT mark, reflecting a significant expansion in performance.

This project is drawing attention as a potential addition to diversified portfolios; interested participants can explore MTAUR before the next phase of its distribution begins.

The information presented in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Crypto Economy is not affiliated with the project. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and can involve significant risks. We recommend that you conduct your own analysis.

Binance has finally completed its emergency reserve strategy with the acquisition of another 4,545 Bitcoin, worth $305 million, for its Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU). The latest acquisition thus concludes Binance’s $1 billion transaction from stablecoins to Bitcoin. The crypto exchange confirmed that the fund now has approximately 15,000 BTC.

“With SAFU Fund now fully in Bitcoin, we reinforce our belief in BTC as the premier long-term reserve asset. Thank you for your continued trust and support. We remain committed to transparency and security,” the exchange wrote on X.

According to the crypto exchange’s SAFU explainer, the fund was established to protect customers against unexpected incidents such as hacks, security breaches, or system failures. The reserve has historically been held in stablecoins to preserve its value during market stress, but Binance has swapped the assets to Bitcoin in two instances within the last 3 years.

Binance final tranche of Bitcoin purchases completes $1 billion fund The latest acquisition is the final stage of Binance’s plan to convert the entire SAFU reserve into Bitcoin. Per data compiled by the blockchain tracking service Arkham Intelligence, the crypto trading platform accumulated its holdings through five rounds of large transactions executed since January 30.

As reported by Cryptopolitan earlier this week, Binance added 4,225 BTC at $71,006 per coin, valued at more than $300 million to the fund. Three days earlier, the reserve had acquired 3,663 BTC worth about $237 million.

The buying campaign also included two separate purchases of 1,315 BTC each, worth roughly $100 million per transaction, completed about five and seven days before the final tranche at about $76,045 per coin. The acquisition of 3,600 BTC cost nearly $69,444.

The final buyout of 4,545 BTC was acquired at approximately $66,006, the lowest entry price among the transactions. The average blended purchase price for the entire accumulation sits near $70,000 a pop.

Most of the acquisitions were executed when bitcoin was consolidating between $77,000 and $$70,000. However, the top crypto by market capitalization has declined to around $67,000 at the time of this publication, per CoinGecko.

Binance first announced the conversion plan in an open letter published in late January. The exchange said the Bitcoin buying program was meant to strengthen user protection during market cycles and periods of uncertainty, because it believes the coin has greater long-term resilience than stablecoin reserves.

“If the fund’s market value falls below $800 million due to BTC price fluctuations, Binance will rebalance the fund to restore its value to $1 billion,” the exchange wrote, promising to regularly audit and rebalance the fund’s value.

Bitcoin price stuck on $67,000, investors hope demand will grow  Bitcoin has struggled to sustain an upward momentum after its impressive run from $60,000 to $71,000 seven days ago. Looking at TradingView’s technical indicators, the king coin has attempted to break below the lower boundary of the $67,000 descending trend channel. 

This development could mean bears are exerting persistent downward pressure, though the causality may lead to a short-term rebound to levels above $70,000, as seen last Friday. However, there is currently no clear support level on the price chart, and a 24-hour trading volume uptick of 10% suggests sellers are aware of the flailing prices.

The US non-farm payrolls report released earlier in the week showed 130,000 jobs added, exceeding expectations of 70,000. Despite stronger labor data, the market is still waiting for inflation data before deciding whether to keep or sell its holdings, which has inadvertently stalled BTC prices.

As Bitcoin’s price slump continues to rattle equity-linked crypto firms, Strategy Inc. (previously known as Microstrategy) is pivoting its capital-raising playbook to preferred stock issuance in a bid to secure fresh funding for its Bitcoin accumulation strategy.

Chief Executive Phong Le said the company would increasingly rely on perpetual preferred shares to fund purchases of the top cryptocurrency, reducing dependence on common equity sales that often exacerbate dilution and volatility for existing shareholders. 

“We will start to transition from equity capital to preferred capital,” Le said during a Bloomberg appearance on Feb. 12, adding that the preferred product would be “a big one” for Strategy in 2026.

The instrument in focus is Stretch (STRC), a variable-rate perpetual preferred stock designed to offer income stability while maintaining a close link to the company’s digital asset holdings. 

Currently paying an annualised dividend of 11.25%, Stretch resets its rate monthly and targets a $100 par value, a mechanism engineered to minimise the sharp price swings that have increasingly defined Strategy’s common shares.

STRC, which first launched in July 2025, is now one of several preferred offerings used by Strategy to raise capital without eroding shareholder value through common stock dilution. 

It reclaimed its par value at the close of trading last Wednesday for the first time since mid-January, an outcome Le called “the story of the day.”

Strategy views Stretch and its related offerings, such as STRK, as suitable vehicles for institutions like insurers and pensions, which seek digital exposure without direct price correlation. 

By sitting above common stock and below debt in the capital stack, preferred shares offer priority on dividends while sacrificing voting rights, an appealing tradeoff for stability-focused allocators.

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Strategy’s high-beta exposure to Bitcoin has once again put its balance sheet under pressure, amplifying volatility not just for the company but also for shareholders who often bear the brunt of sharp price swings.

Over the past three weeks, the firm raised $370 million through common stock and another $7 million via preferred issuance, channelling those funds directly into Bitcoin purchases. 

Its total holdings have now surpassed 714,000 BTC, acquired at an average cost of roughly $76,056 per coin.

But the math isn’t working in the company’s favour, for now.

Bitcoin’s sharp drop from its 2025 peak of nearly $120,000 to as low as $60,000 earlier this month has left Strategy sitting on more than $6 billion in unrealised losses. 

Market data compiled by Artemis places the paper loss closer to $9.2 billion, accounting for broader declines since the start of the year.

The ongoing slump has not spared Strategy’s own stock, which fell more than 5% on Feb. 11 and is down over 19% year-to-date.

Yet, Strategy remains confident in the durability of its funding architecture and its strong cash reserves, which continue to serve as a critical buffer against market stress.

As of January, Strategy held $2.25 billion in cash reserves, enough to cover more than 30 months of interest and preferred dividend payments. 

And while the firm’s reliance on leverage has drawn criticism, Le and Executive Chairman Michael Saylor have continued to present Strategy’s balance sheet as resilient, even under duress.

Speaking recently on CNBC, Saylor downplayed concerns about forced liquidation, saying the firm could refinance its debt “even if Bitcoin fell to $8,000.” 

“It’s a feature of a high-volatility asset, not a flaw in the model,” he told investors earlier this month.

On Feb. 11, Uniswap announced that BlackRock's $2.2 billion USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) would trade on UniswapX via a partnership with Securitize.

The integration enables BUIDL holders to swap into USDC via an on-chain request-for-quote system that settles atomically with quotes from allowlisted market makers, including Flowdesk, Tokka Labs, and Wintermute.

Additionally, BlackRock disclosed a strategic investment in the Uniswap ecosystem, while explicitly reserving the right to discontinue it and noting that it doesn't endorse the broader protocol or the UNI token.

The announcement arrives as tokenization accelerates, but splits into two incompatible architectures.

According to RWA.xyz data, the tokenized real-world assets (RWA) market reached $24.7 billion in distributed assets, which are tokens that can be transferred wallet-to-wallet and leave issuer platforms.

Represented assets, which cannot move peer-to-peer and remain locked within issuer platforms, total $344.09 billion, up 21.87% in the same window.

The math is blunt: distributed assets account for roughly 7% of the combined tokenized base, meaning the overwhelming majority of tokenization growth is occurring within walled gardens where DeFi composability is structurally impossible.

Distributed tokenized assets total $24.7 billion while non-transferable represented assets dominate at $344.09 billion, comprising 93% of the tokenization market.BUIDL sits in the minority. RWA.xyz classifies it as distributed, with 112 holders, $273.6 million in monthly transfer volume across 72 transfers, and a $5 million minimum for US-qualified purchasers under Regulation D.

Its 3.4% seven-day APY competes directly with the 3.6% yield on three-month Treasuries and operates in a market where total tokenized US Treasuries reached $10.6 billion as of press time.

Ondo holds $1.2 billion, Securitize $2 billion, Circle $1.5 billion. The sector added 1.1% more holders and 2.53% more value in a single week.

The execution layer is the real prizeWhat Uniswap secured isn't BUIDL's entire float. It secured the right to provide the execution and settlement layer for a permissioned asset that institutions already trust.

Securitize Markets facilitates trades, participants are pre-qualified and allowlisted, and counterparties are vetted.

The “market” is closed even as settlement runs on-chain. This is the template: DeFi protocols serve as the plumbing for TradFi tokenization, providing best execution, atomic settlement, and 24/7 availability, while access remains gated by KYC and broker infrastructure.

Hayden Adams framed it as mission acceleration, with cheaper, faster, more accessible value exchange.

Robert Mitchnick, BlackRock's head of digital assets, called it “a notable step in the convergence of tokenized assets with decentralized finance.”

Carlos Domingo at Securitize described it as the unlock: traditional finance's trust and regulatory standards meet DeFi's speed and openness.

The language carefully avoids claiming this is permissionless DeFi.

It's permissioned DeFi infrastructure, and the distinction rewrites what survival looks like for decentralized protocols.

UniswapX's RFQ framework mirrors traditional OTC request-for-quote mechanics while automating quote aggregation across subscribers and settling instantly on-chain.

Uniswap touts over $4 trillion in cumulative volume and the scale to absorb institutional flows without recreating centralized exchange infrastructure.

The implicit pitch: institutions want atomic settlement and self-custody rails without rebuilding clearinghouses, and DeFi already solved that problem.

The catch is that DeFi solved it for open access, and institutions are rebuilding it for closed access on top of DeFi's code.

ItemBUIDL (BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund)AUM$2.2BAsset architectureDistributed (wallet-to-wallet transferable)AccessReg D, US qualified purchasers, $5M minimumHolders112Monthly transfers$273.6M volume / 72 transfersExecution venueUniswapX RFQ via Securitize Markets (allowlisted)Quoted liquidity providersFlowdesk, Tokka Labs, WintermuteSettlementAtomic on-chainAPY3.4% (7-day)Key disclosureBlackRock strategic investment + non-endorsement / right to discontinueTwo tracks, one winnerThe represented-versus-distributed split tells the real story.

Represented tokenization is scaling faster because it requires less regulatory navigation: assets remain on issuer platforms, transfers are internal database updates, and the blockchain serves as an audit trail rather than a settlement rail.

Banks like the efficiency gains without the composability risk. Standard Chartered is forecasting $2 trillion in tokenized assets by 2028 but warns the boom could stall inside bank infrastructure rather than reaching open markets.

Distributed tokenization presents tougher trade-offs but enables higher-value use cases.

BUIDL already functions as off-exchange collateral on Binance and operates across multiple chains, including BNB Chain, demonstrating that institutions value mobility when it enables margin efficiency, cross-venue settlement, and collateral velocity.

DefiLlama shows nearly $15 billion in total on-chain real-world assets but only $1 billion actively deployed in DeFi protocols, a 14-to-1 ratio of parked to productive.

The Uniswap integration is a bet that the parked capital wants to move but needs permissioned on-ramps and off-ramps to do so legally.

If tokenized treasuries grow from $10 billion to $50 billion over two years, which is still a fraction of traditional money markets, and 10% of that supply becomes actively tradable via RFQ-style venues, that implies $5 billion in DEX-addressable float.

At turnover rates of 0.25-1.0 per month, monthly on-chain execution volume from tokenized treasuries alone could range from $1.25 billion to $5 billion.

That volume doesn't show up in open AMM pools. It flows through intent-based systems such as UniswapX, where quotes are aggregated, fillers compete privately, and settlement occurs atomically. Yet, access is restricted.

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Monthly onchain execution volume from tokenized treasuries could reach $1.25 billion to $5 billion if the market grows to $50 billion with 10% tradable float.What composability costsThe scenario in which DeFi thrives as regulated market infrastructure requires accepting that composability survives only within KYC walls.

Open liquidity pools and permissionless market-making are outperformed by closed RFQ systems with allowlisted participants because regulators can enforce compliance on gatekeepers.

In an alternative scenario where tokenization scales primarily with represented assets, DeFi is marginalized, reduced to infrastructure for retail speculation, while institutions optimize tokenized workflows that never touch public rails.

China's recent moves to tighten oversight of offshore tokenized asset-backed securities tied to onshore assets illustrate the regulatory friction building globally.

Governments want visibility into cross-border flows and the ability to halt activity that bypasses capital controls. Distributed tokenization inherently resists that control, while represented tokenization accommodates it.

The question is whether distributed assets can scale quickly within compliant frameworks to make DeFi infrastructure indispensable.

ARK Invest forecasts that tokenized assets could exceed $11 trillion by 2030 as regulation and infrastructure mature. Ripple and BCG model a range of outcomes through 2033, depending on the pace of adoption.

Those projections assume growth tracks both represented and distributed models, but the current data shows represented assets capturing 93% of the expansion.

If that ratio holds, DeFi captures execution fees on the 7% minority. At the same time, the vast majority of tokenized value operates in systems where protocols provide logging and audit trails but not market access.

Visible endgameStablecoins provide the clearest read on where this ends.

RWA.xyz shows $295.4 billion in stablecoin value, roughly flat over 30 days and dwarfing the combined value of distributed and represented tokenization.

Stablecoins function as the on-chain dollar layer, and any tokenized fund that settles directly into USDC or similar rails gains structural liquidity advantages.

BUIDL trading into USDC via UniswapX exploits that base layer, enabling always-on conversions between yield-bearing institutional cash and the largest on-chain dollar pools.

What Uniswap secured is the right to serve as the settlement layer for institutional cash flows between tokenized treasuries and stablecoins.

That's not the DeFi early builders envisioned: open, permissionless, and censorship-resistant. It's DeFi as regulated infrastructure: protocols provide execution efficiency and atomic settlement, while gatekeepers control access.

The composability that made DeFi valuable survives, but only for participants who pass institutional compliance filters.

BlackRock's strategic investment signals confidence that this hybrid model can scale, but the disclaimer about potential discontinuation and the non-endorsement of UNI clarifies the power dynamic.

Institutions will use DeFi rails when convenient and abandon them when not. Protocols that depend on institutional flows accept the terms or lose relevance.

The lifeline is real, but it comes with strings, and those strings determine whether DeFi becomes indispensable infrastructure or just another efficiency layer that institutions can replace when cheaper alternatives emerge.

The question is whether DeFi can survive as the execution and settlement substrate for a tokenized financial system where access remains closed, and whether that survival constitutes rescue or capture.

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From ETFs to stablecoins to AI infrastructure, Solana’s pitch in Hong Kong was clear: less memecoin mania, more internet capital markets. Feb 12, 2026, 10:41 a.m.

Solana wants to position itself as the execution layer for “internet capital markets” in Asia, or venues where users can issue, trade, borrow, lend, and settle assets online, 24/7, without needing a traditional exchange, bank or clearing house.

At least, that was the position attendees and panelists at Solana’s Accelerate APAC event in Hong Kong on Wednesday. Speakers struck a noticeably institutional tone, with panels and keynotes focused less on hype cycles and more on payments, tokenization and the plumbing needed to onboard traditional finance at the conference, held alongside CoinDesk's Consensus Hong Kong

STORY CONTINUES BELOW

The day’s agenda reflected that shift. Discussions ranged from SOL staking exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and digital asset trusts to stablecoin rails, tokenized securities and regulated exchange-traded products.

Asset managers including Mirae Asset and ChinaAMC shared the stage with infrastructure players such as CME Group, Fireblocks and Cumberland, showing how closely the ecosystem is courting traditional financial firms.

Payments also featured heavily. Multiple sessions centered on payment rails, compliant stablecoin infrastructure and cross-border use cases, with a clear emphasis on real-world adoption rather than speculative trading.

Infrastructure and AI were another pillar. Talks from Alibaba Cloud and several crypto-native builders highlighted the growing overlap between blockchain settlement layers and AI-driven applications, reinforcing Solana’s long-standing pitch around speed and scalability.

The overall mood in Hong Kong was simple and almost stubbornly consistent. Build.

Not the “buidl” that shows up in bull markets as a vibe check, but the kind that shows up when prices are down 70% over a year, attention is scant and nobody’s pretending the last few months have been fun. But that wasn’t the frame the event operated in.

Panels kept circling back to the same practical questions: How do stablecoins work at scale, how do you onboard institutions without breaking compliance and what metrics actually matter when you’re selling onchain rails to asset managers and banks. How do you make wallets feel less like science projects and how do you build tokenization infrastructure that survives a regulator’s first serious audit also took center stage

If anything, the downturn seemed to sharpen the messaging, with less talk about narratives and more about settlement, custody, payments, identity and the boring operational details that decide whether “real adoption” is real or just a meme.

A key vibe takeaway was not that Solana is immune to market cycles, but that the people building on it are trying to act like the cycle doesn’t get to decide what matters.

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The Protocol: Robinhood unveils its layer-2 testnet

18 hours ago

Also: Citadel Securities backs LayerZero chain, MegaETH mainnet debut and ENS scraps L2 plans

What to know:

Welcome to The Protocol, CoinDesk's weekly wrap of the most important stories in cryptocurrency tech development. I’m Margaux Nijkerk, a reporter at CoinDesk.

In this issue:

Robinhood starts testing its own blockchain as its push into crypto and tokenization deepens.Citadel Securities backs LayerZero as it unveils ‘Zero’ blockchain for global markets.MegaETH debuts mainnet as Ethereum scaling debate heats up.Ethereum's ENS identity system scraps planned rollup after Vitalik's warning about layer-2 networks.

Trump-backed World Liberty Financial (WLFI) has announced plans to launch a new forex trading platform called World Swap, expanding its presence in the global foreign exchange market. 

The new platform will be built around its dollar-pegged stablecoin, USD1, as the company continues to grow its digital finance ecosystem.

Speaking at Consensus Hong Kong, WLFI co-founder Zak Folkman confirmed that the company will launch a foreign exchange platform called World Swap. The service is designed to make cross-border money movement simpler and cheaper using stablecoin rails.

World Swap will use WLFI’s dollar-pegged stablecoin, USD1, as its main settlement asset. 

By combining traditional forex trading with blockchain infrastructure, the company aims to enable faster and more efficient currency transactions compared to traditional banking systems.

With this move, foreign exchange services become part of WLFI’s growing lineup of crypto-based financial products built around USD1.

Simple Cross-Border Transfers With Lower FeesThe launch of World Swap comes as demand for the USD1 stablecoin continues to rise. Folkman said the goal is to make international transfers simple by removing the technical steps often linked to crypto wallets. 

Users should be able to send and receive digital dollars as easily as using a regular payment app.

World Swap is also being promoted as a cheaper option compared to traditional remittance and forex services, where fees can range from 2% to 10% per transaction. 

By using blockchain and stablecoins, WLFI aims to lower costs and make transfers faster.

More Announcements Expected at Mar-a-Lago EventMore updates are expected at an upcoming company event scheduled later this month. While specific details have not yet been disclosed, the company has hinted at additional developments within its ecosystem.

As of now, WLFI is trading at around $0.107, reflecting a rise of 7.53% in the last 24 hours, with a market cap hitting $2.86 billon.

Trust with CoinPedia:CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017. All content is created by our expert panel of analysts and journalists, following strict Editorial Guidelines based on E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness). Every article is fact-checked against reputable sources to ensure accuracy, transparency, and reliability. Our review policy guarantees unbiased evaluations when recommending exchanges, platforms, or tools. We strive to provide timely updates about everything crypto & blockchain, right from startups to industry majors.

Investment Disclaimer:All opinions and insights shared represent the author's own views on current market conditions. Please do your own research before making investment decisions. Neither the writer nor the publication assumes responsibility for your financial choices.

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Bitcoin’s on-chain loss metrics hit levels comparable to 2022’s Luna collapse, though at higher price points, signaling late-cycle capitulation rather than systemic crash.

Summary

Bitcoin’s Net Realized Profit/Loss metric entered deeply negative territory on Feb. 7, marking the second deepest level in history after June 2022’s Luna/UST collapse The 7-day moving average of realized losses reached one of the highest smoothed levels on record, with Feb. 5 posting the second-largest single-day loss in Bitcoin’s history Unlike 2022’s losses at lower prices, current losses are crystallizing around $67,000, suggesting a flushing out of late cycle entries rather than systemic failure Bitcoin’s (BTC) on-chain loss indicators have reached levels comparable to those observed during the Luna/UST collapse in 2022, though at significantly higher price points, according to analyst Axel Adler Jr.

Bitcoin’s Net Realized Profit/Loss metric has entered deeply negative territory, with the 7-day moving average falling into negative readings on Feb. 7 before improving slightly by Feb. 10, Adler reported. The current reading represents the second deepest negative level in the metric’s recorded history, exceeded only by June 18, 2022, when the indicator reached a record low during the Luna/UST crash and subsequent liquidations.

The metric has remained below a significant negative threshold for five consecutive days, forming what Adler characterized as a sustained cluster of seller pressure. According to the analyst, realized losses are dominating realized profits on moved coins, indicating the market is processing supply from participants selling below their cost basis.

“The depth and duration of the current negative regime point to massive capitulation of participants who bought coins at higher levels,” Adler stated in his analysis. “The key reversal trigger is the return of Net Realized Profit/Loss above zero, which would signal the market’s transition from loss dominance to profit dominance.”

A companion metric, Bitcoin Realized Loss (7DMA), showed realized losses rising around Feb. 7 and maintaining elevated levels through Feb. 10. Adler described this as one of the highest smoothed levels in the metric’s recorded history, comparable to June 2022 readings.

The analyst noted that the 7-day smoothing may understate peak stress in real time. During the 2022 episode, single-day losses reached approximately three times higher than the weekly-smoothed figure, according to Adler. In the current period, he identified a single-day realized loss on Feb. 5 as the second-largest one-day loss in Bitcoin’s history.

A key distinction between the current situation and 2022, according to Adler, is the price level at which losses are being realized. In 2022, similar realized-loss levels occurred with bitcoin trading at substantially lower prices. The current losses are being crystallized at higher price levels following a pullback from recent peaks.

“Back then, Realized Loss at a high weekly level was occurring at a price that was far lower,” Adler stated. “Now, comparable loss volumes are being locked in at a much higher price, which suggests not a systemic crash but rather a flushing out of late bull-cycle entries.”

Adler outlined two key indicators to monitor for potential market recovery. The first is a sustained move of Net Realized Profit/Loss (7DMA) back above zero for multiple weeks, signaling a transition from loss dominance to profit dominance. The second is a decline of Realized Loss (7DMA) below a lower threshold, indicating that forced selling pressure is subsiding.

The analyst cautioned that continued price weakness could extend and deepen the current loss regime, potentially converting a correction into more severe capitulation. Bitcoin was trading around $67,000 at the time of the analysis, according to the report.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent pullback may be less about crypto‑specific weakness and more about macroeconomic fears, according to André Dragosch, Bitwise’s Head of Research for Europe. 

In a social media post published Wednesday, Dragosch argued that the world’s largest cryptocurrency appears to be pricing in a potential deep US recession. If that downturn ultimately fails to materialize, he suggested, Bitcoin could be positioned for a significant rebound.

Is Bitcoin Facing A Quantum Risk Premium? Dragosch described Bitcoin as fundamentally a macro‑driven asset. Historically, he estimates that roughly 90% of its performance can be explained by broad economic forces such as growth expectations, global liquidity conditions and monetary policy trends. 

However, he acknowledged that there are periods when Bitcoin temporarily decouples from these drivers. In his view, the market may currently be in one of those transitional phases.

Part of the recent divergence, he noted, may stem from concerns unrelated to traditional macro factors. Some market participants have pointed to what Dragosch referred to as a “quantum discount.” 

This narrative suggests that long‑term holder selling and speculation about the eventual emergence of quantum‑resistant cryptography could be weighing on Bitcoin’s valuation. 

He observed that Bitcoin’s relative underperformance compared with Bitcoin Cash (BCH), which is perceived to have a clearer near‑term roadmap for quantum resilience, may reflect that line of thinking. 

By his rough estimate, markets could be assigning as much as a 25% probability to quantum‑related risk, whereas he believes a more realistic discount would be closer to 5%, given that any meaningful “Q‑Day” threat likely remains far in the future.

Rare Macro Mispricing Opportunity More recently, Dragosch said Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macroeconomic developments has begun to increase again. That shift has coincided with weakness in software equities, adding further downward pressure to the cryptocurrency. 

In his assessment, the latest correction has produced one of the largest macro mispricings in Bitcoin’s history. He pointed to residuals between forward‑looking economic indicators and Bitcoin’s implied growth pricing, noting that the current gap is even more pronounced than during the COVID‑19 recession in 2020.

In practical terms, Dragosch believes Bitcoin’s current valuation reflects expectations of a deep US recession. Should such a downturn fail to occur, he argues that the resulting setup could represent one of the more asymmetric risk‑reward opportunities seen in Bitcoin to date.

He also emphasized that macroeconomic signals are not uniformly negative. Industrial commodity markets are showing early signs of renewed momentum, while US ISM data has returned to expansion territory. 

Leading indicators such as Germany’s Ifo survey and Taiwanese semiconductor export data are trending upward. Additionally, global rate‑cutting cycles have historically preceded stabilization in forward growth expectations. 

Taken together, these factors suggest that global growth prospects may not be deteriorating as sharply as some fear. Such an environment, Dragosch noted, typically supports risk assets like Bitcoin while diminishing relative demand for gold. 

He highlighted that the BTC-to-gold ratio currently sits near levels that historically signal dislocation, which he views as another potential sign of undervaluation.

The daily chart shows BTC’s price resuming its downtrend on Wednesday after failing to recover the $70,000 mark. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $67,591, which is about 46% below the all-time high of $126,000 reached during last year’s rally in October. 

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

3 mins mins

Verdict: No credible evidence of McDonald’s uniform at Consensus Hong KongThere is no credible evidence that Charles Hoskinson appeared at Consensus Hong Kong in a McDonald’s uniform. As of February 12, 2026, a review of contemporaneous coverage finds no substantiation by reputable media or official channels.

According to CoinDesk, reporting around the event centered on Cardano’s technical and institutional developments rather than any costume-related incident, and no uniform reference appears in that coverage. This assessment considers whether official announcements or event photography corroborated the claim; none was identified in the reviewed reporting.

Why this rumor matters for Cardano (ADA) narrative and trustUnverified spectacle can distort perceptions of leadership and dilute the project’s institutional narrative. For ADA, rumor-driven cycles can cloud diligence on actual technical progress and governance roadmaps.

From a market-integrity standpoint, rumor propagation creates headline risk that can outpace fundamentals. Clear separation between memes and material updates is essential for informed interpretation by developers, partners, and risk teams.

What actually happened: LayerZero integration announcement and institutional focusThe substantive development tied to this news cycle was confirmation that LayerZero will integrate with Cardano and has been framed as institutionally focused. Coverage emphasized the institutional expansion angle rather than any on-stage theatrics.

“Charles Hoskinson has confirmed that LayerZero will be integrated into the Cardano blockchain,” said TradingView, citing Coinpedia. This positions the update within Cardano’s ongoing effort to align infrastructure with institutional requirements and cross-ecosystem connectivity.

How to verify crypto rumors and event claimsVerification begins with contemporaneous event coverage, official posts, and primary disclosures. Check whether the claim appears in same-day reporting, stage recaps, or official photo galleries associated with the conference agenda.

Institutional-grade confirmation relies on hierarchy of evidence. Prioritize official channels from Input Output Global and the Cardano Foundation, followed by recognized trade publications and conference organizers’ materials.

Evidence checklist: sources, images, and event coverageStart with official accounts and press rooms for statements and images posted during or immediately after the session. Review event programs and session summaries to confirm attendance and context.

Then examine reputable outlets for independent reporting and photos. Absence of corroboration across these sources is a red flag for satire, misinterpretation, or fabrication.

Avoiding misinformation: confirm with official and reputable outletsTreat viral posts as unverified until matched by official or reputable media confirmation. Prefer primary materials and named publications over screenshots or reposted memes.

Where uncertainty persists, document gaps and avoid repeating uncorroborated claims as fact. This approach minimizes headline risk and maintains evidence-based analysis.

FAQ about Cardano founder McDonald’s uniformIs there any credible photo or reporting that confirms the McDonald’s uniform rumor?No. As of Feb. 12, 2026, reputable coverage and official channels provide no confirmation or imagery.

What did Cardano actually announce at or around Consensus Hong Kong?Coverage highlighted a LayerZero integration for Cardano with an institutional emphasis.

DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.

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Ethereum’s price has dropped nearly a third over the past month, yet more people than ever are choosing to lock up their coins to help run the network. This contrast between falling value and rising commitment from holders points to what might lie ahead for the world’s second-biggest cryptocurrency.

The clearest sign of this trend shows up in the staking numbers. Right now, about 36.7 million ETH sit locked in the system. That works out to 30.3% of all Ether out there.

In other words, close to one in every three coins is helping secure the network through its consensus process.

Things look different from past periods, though. Back then, staked funds stayed tied up for a long time. In the current 2026 setup, holders enjoy much better access to their money. Liquid staking tokens, along with cleared exit lines for validators, let people pull out almost right away when they want.

Ethereum’s staking surge. Source: beaconchain Why are investors still staking when the price keeps falling? A crypto update from Milk Road pointed out on Wednesday that this creates a huge squeeze on available supply. Staking pays roughly 3% per year, something the newsletter described as far from exciting compared with other crypto returns.

Still, participation keeps climbing. Locking away assets worth around $72 billion during a downturn suggests these investors are not chasing fast gains. Instead, they seem convinced Ether holds lasting value worth keeping over years.

A few market watchers think the worst of the drop could be behind us, even with the tough recent picture.

At the Consensus Hong Kong 2026 event on Wednesday, Tom Lee, co-founder and research head at Fundstrat, urged attendees to look for chances to buy rather than rush to sell. He brought up Ethereum’s track record, saying the coin has seen eight separate drops of over 50% since 2018.

“Many people are outraged, but keep in mind that since 2018, Ethereum has fallen more than 50% eight times,” Lee told the crowd.

He added, “Eight out of eight times, Ethereum has had a V-shaped bottom,” meaning it bounced back about as fast as it fell each time. He views the recent slide to $1,740 on Coinbase as matching those earlier low points.

Tom DeMark, who runs DeMark Analytics and advises BitMine as a strategic consultant, suggested $1,890 could mark a true floor. His method looks for prices to test important levels twice on the downside before steadying. Lee backed that view, noting the setup resembles bottoms from late 2018, fall 2022, and April 2025.

Companies are putting real money to work at these levels Some big players are backing up their words with action at these levels. BitMine Immersion Technologies, the company where Lee serves as chairman, now holds the largest corporate stash of Ether anywhere. Its total stands at 4.326 million ETH.

In February’s weak period, it picked up an extra 40,613 ETH. The firm has been moving its main holdings from Bitcoin to Ethereum. BitMine calls these buys part of its “Alchemy of 5%” strategy, with a goal to one day own 5% of all circulating ETH.

Ether still faces selling pressure, but it steadied somewhat today and sits close to $1,970 while trying to push back above the key $2,000 mark.

One clear difference in 2026 comes from stablecoin and real-world asset use on the chain. Stablecoin transfers on Ethereum doubled over the last two quarters and hit a new high of $8 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2025. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe says “price follows narrative.”

Right now, he sees Ethereum taking the lead as the main network for moving more than $180 billion in stablecoins around the world.

The basic role of the Ethereum network stays the same. As Lee explained, trying to nail the precise low point matters less than the bigger picture. Technical signals hint at support building, and ongoing staking adds more pressure on floating supply. That sets up solid groundwork ahead, even if everyday retail buyers have yet to jump back in.

World Liberty Financial announces World Swap, a forex platform built on USD1 stablecoin. The Trump-backed firm aims to challenge traditional remittance services with lower fees and simplified cross-border transactions.

Newton Gitonga2 min read

12 February 2026, 11:08 AM

World Liberty Financial has revealed plans to enter the foreign exchange market with a new trading platform. The Trump-associated crypto firm announced the initiative at the Consensus Hong Kong conference, marking its latest expansion beyond stablecoin operations.

Co-founder Zak Folkman disclosed that the company will launch "World Swap," a forex platform built within the USD1 stablecoin ecosystem. The announcement signals the firm's ambition to establish a comprehensive financial infrastructure centered on its digital dollar token.

Folkman stated that additional details will emerge at an upcoming Mar-a-Lago event scheduled for later this month. The forex platform represents another step in World Liberty's strategy to position itself as a full-stack financial services provider in the cryptocurrency space.

Targeting Traditional Remittance MarketsWorld Liberty Financial aims to disrupt conventional money transfer services through its forex offering. Folkman presented the platform as a direct challenge to traditional remittance operators that charge between 2% and 10% per transaction.

The company plans to simplify cross-border transactions by removing the complexity typically associated with crypto wallets. Users will be able to send and receive digital dollars through an interface similar to mainstream payment applications.

The USD1 stablecoin serves as the foundation for this strategy. The token has achieved a market capitalization of over $5 billion in its first year of operation. It currently ranks among the top 25 cryptocurrencies by market value.

Folkman emphasized that USD1's growth has been critical to the firm's market expansion plans. The stablecoin's adoption provides the liquidity and user base needed to launch additional financial products.

Expanding Financial EcosystemWorld Liberty Financial has introduced several products since its launch. Folkman highlighted World Liberty Markets during the Hong Kong conference, describing it as a lending platform that has attracted hundreds of millions in deposits within weeks of going live.

The firm has secured partnerships in the decentralized finance sector to increase USD1 usage. These collaborations aim to integrate the stablecoin across various blockchain protocols and applications.

Last month, World Liberty partnered with Spacecoin to develop a token swap system focused on USD1. Spacecoin deployed three satellites into low-Earth orbit as part of its satellite network infrastructure. The space technology will utilize World Liberty's financial systems for its operations.

The company has announced plans to launch real-world asset products collateralized by USD1. This initiative targets institutional investors seeking exposure to tokenized traditional assets. The RWA offerings will expand the stablecoin's utility beyond peer-to-peer transactions.

World Liberty Financial also disclosed plans for a branded debit card. The WLFI card will allow investors to use their digital assets for everyday purchases. This product aims to bridge the gap between cryptocurrency holdings and traditional commerce.

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Newton Gitonga covers cryptocurrencies, blockchain, and digital finance. He specializes in breaking down complex trends with clear, data-driven reporting. His work focuses on market analysis, technical insights, and the evolving role of altcoins in shaping global markets.

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Alameda Research’s bankruptcy estate has distributed another $15 million worth of Solana to creditors, extending a repayment process that has now been running for nearly two years.

Summary

Alameda Research’s bankruptcy estate distributed roughly $15.6 million in Solana to creditors in its latest monthly payout, extending a repayment process that has run for 21 months. Despite ongoing distributions, Alameda still holds nearly $315 million worth of SOL on-chain, keeping traders alert to potential supply overhang risks. Most of Alameda and FTX’s SOL was previously sold through OTC deals in 2024, with remaining distributions being handled gradually to limit market impact. According to blockchain data highlighted by Arkham, the latest monthly tranche involved the transfer of roughly $15.60 million in Solana (SOL) to 25 separate addresses.

The movement forms part of a structured distribution program that has been ongoing for 21 months following the collapse of FTX and its trading arm, Alameda Research.

Despite the steady outflows, Alameda’s on-chain wallets still hold approximately $314.95 million worth of SOL, keeping the estate among the largest known holders of the token tied to the defunct exchange empire.

Alameda Research crypto holdings | Source: Arkham Market impact questions resurface The renewed transfers have reignited debate over whether these distributions ultimately translate into sell pressure on the open market.

Arkham raised the question directly, asking whether the newly distributed SOL would be “SOLd straight into the market,” a concern that has repeatedly surfaced during prior repayment rounds.

While the latest tranche is relatively modest compared to Alameda’s historical holdings, traders remain sensitive to any supply overhang tied to creditor payouts, particularly during periods of broader market volatility.

Solana’s native token has been volatile in recent months, trading near the low-to-mid $80s to low $90s range after pulling back from higher levels seen in 2025.

Where Alameda’s SOL went Additional context was provided by analyst Emmet Gallic, who traced the fate of the bulk of Alameda and FTX’s Solana holdings.

FTX/Alameda's Solana – where did 43 million $SOL go?

Most of the SOL was sold OTC across 3 tranches in 2024:

– 26M SOL at $64 (Galaxy, Pantera, Jump, Multicoin)
– 14M SOL at $95 (Pantera-led consortium)
– 2M SOL at $102 (Figure Markets, Pantera)

Since then… pic.twitter.com/wpINMLh7Cz

— Emmett Gallic (@emmettgallic) February 11, 2026 According to the analysis, roughly 43 million SOL was largely sold through over-the-counter deals across three major tranches in 2024, limiting direct market disruption.

Those sales included 26 million SOL at $64 to buyers such as Galaxy, Pantera, Jump, and Multicoin; 14 million SOL at $95 through a Pantera-led consortium; and a further 2 million SOL at $102 involving Figure Markets and Pantera.

Since those OTC sales, remaining SOL distributions have been handled gradually, suggesting a continued effort to balance creditor repayments with market stability. Still, with more than $300 million in SOL left on-chain, Alameda-linked movements are likely to remain a point of close scrutiny for Solana traders in the months ahead.

Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump look on before ringing the opening bell to celebrate the closing of ALT5’s $1.5 billion offering and adoption of its $WLFI Treasury Strategy, at the Nasdaq... Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab Read more

HONG KONG, Feb 12 (Reuters) - World Liberty Financial, a crypto venture backed by the family of U.S. President Donald Trump, said on Thursday it plans to roll out a new foreign exchange and remittance platform, offering simplified services with lower fees.

The firm will launch the platform, World Swap, soon, Zak Folkman, co-founder of World Liberty told the audience of the Web 3 event Consensus in Hong Kong.

The Week in Breakingviews newsletter offers insights and ideas from Reuters' global financial commentary team. Sign up here.

"There's over $7 trillion of money moving around the world from currency to currency, and all of this has been taxed very heavily by the incumbent players," he said.

The crypto firm said it wants to connect users directly to debit cards and bank accounts around the world and settle foreign exchange remittances at what it says will be "a fraction of" the fees charged by competitors.

World Liberty Markets - World Liberty's lending platform, which launched four weeks ago as part of a push for greater usage of its USD1 stablecoin - has recorded $320 million in lending and more than $200 million borrowed, Folkman said.

World Liberty fuelled a sharp increase in income for the Trump family business, known as the Trump Organization, including from foreign entities, in the first half of last year, Reuters reported in October.

The growth of the Trump family's crypto initiatives as Trump oversees U.S. crypto policy constitutes a conflict of interest, government ethics experts have said. The White House has denied that any such conflicts exist.

Reporting by Selena Li; Editing by Joe Bavier

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

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Bitcoin bulls failing to hold $70K triggered a slump to $65K again, intensifying bearish sentiment among institutional and retail investors for a steeper crash. Analysts warn BTC price crash to as low as $10K amid on-chain data flashing structural weakness.

Glassnode Highlights Structural Weakness amid Macro Headwinds On-chain analytics platform Glassnode and others flag structural weakness in Bitcoin, with price action defensive between $60K-$72K range. BTC price could crash to the realized price of $55K.

Bitcoin spot volumes are structurally weak and depressed, creating a demand vacuum and accelerating realized losses. Forced deleveraging in futures, lower ETF and crypto treasury inflows, and elevated downside protection by BTC options traders resemble early 2022 and 2018 bear market patterns.

BTC Realized Price & True Market Mean. Source: Glassnode Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index drops to 5 (extreme fear) after Nonfarm payrolls increased by 130K in January, above market estimates of 70K and exceeding December’s 48K. The unemployment rate also declined to 4.3% from 4.4% in December, spoiling hopes of Fed rate cuts.

CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI) metric increasingly supports a bear-market transition toward a deeper BTC price crash, not a simple correction. “From a cycle perspective, true bottom conditions may still be ahead,” said a CryptoQuant analyst.

Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI). Source: CryptoQuant Analysts Predict BTC Price Crash CryptoQuant research head Julio Moreno and analyst Benjamin Cowen raised concerns over Susquehanna-backed crypto lender BlockFills suspending client deposits and withdrawals, citing recent market volatility.

And some say that this bear can't be as in 2022. https://t.co/eZDvaw2AnW

— Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) February 11, 2026

Earlier, Julio Moreno highlighted Bitcoin ETF outflows, negative Coinbase premiums, drying stablecoin liquidity, and absent structural bull drivers, suggesting the market has already entered a bear phase with limited upside catalysts.

Benjamin Cowen claimed Bitcoin goes below both the realized price and the balanced price in bear markets. He predicts BTC price crash below $40K amid bearish sentiment.

Bitcoin Realized and Balanced Price. Source: Benjamin Cowen Peter Schiff Predicts Steeper BTC Price Crash Toward $10K Gold advocate and economist Peter Schiff has reiterated his critical view that BTC faces a catastrophic downside. In recent statements, he noted that long-term charts indicate initial support around $10,000 and cautioned about Bitcoin’s weakness.

Schiff’s comments come amid the current selloff, framing Bitcoin as overvalued and vulnerable to broader macroeconomic pressures. Also, options traders adjusted their positions after the Non-farm payrolls data, with massive call and put volume.

BTC price is trading near $67K after a rebound from a 24-hour low of $65,757. In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin short-term holders moved 28,000 BTC to crypto exchanges at a loss. Traders are now awaiting Friday’s US CPI inflation data and crypto options expiry.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holders P&L in 24H. Source: Maartunn