Market Signal Briefing

TLDR: Bitcoin is trading near $70,746.80 and pressing against a major resistance block around $70,200. Analyst Lennaert Snyder outlines a bullish breakout or bearish fakeout scenario at the current resistance level. Whale vs Retail Delta dropped from -15 to -4.9, marking a 65% reduction in net selling over one week. The last similar delta recovery within a week occurred during Bitcoin’s $90,000 to $97,000 price rally. Bitcoin is at a critical price point as market participants watch closely. The leading cryptocurrency is trading near $70,746.80, pressing against a major resistance block around $70,200.

Analysts are split between two possible outcomes at this level. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows a notable shift in behavior among large wallet holders.

Together, these technical and structural signals are setting the stage for a potentially decisive move in Bitcoin’s short-term price direction.

Bitcoin Tests Key Resistance With Two Clear Scenarios on the Table Bitcoin is approaching the $70,200 resistance zone, a level that traders have been monitoring. Crypto analyst Lennaert Snyder outlined two possible outcomes for the current price action.

The bullish case involves Bitcoin breaking above the resistance with strong momentum, then consolidating. After that consolidation, Snyder is watching for a higher-low to form before entering a long position.

$BTC it's decision time.

Bitcoin is heading towards the big ~$70,200 resistance block.

For trades today, I want to see what happens after we grab liquidity above those highs.

The bullish scenario is that we break with strength, consolidate above, and long the higher-low after… pic.twitter.com/tcyJEidc5q

— Lennaert Snyder (@LennaertSnyder) March 4, 2026

On the other hand, a rejection at this level tells a different story. If Bitcoin sweeps the highs and then reverses, Snyder sees that as a potential fakeout.

In that scenario, he would look to short after a bearish market structure break. The setup gives traders a clear framework to work with heading into the end of the week.

Both scenarios hinge on how Bitcoin reacts after reaching liquidity above the highs. A clean breakout with sustained buying would favor the bulls.

However, a sharp rejection after the sweep would favor the bears. Price action in that zone will likely determine the near-term trend.

This kind of binary setup is common at major resistance levels. Traders often wait for confirmation rather than entering prematurely. Snyder’s approach reflects a disciplined, reactive strategy based on what Bitcoin actually does at the level.

Whale Selling Pressure Drops 65% in One Week, Shifting Market Dynamics On-chain analyst Ardi shared data showing a major change in institutional selling behavior. The Whale vs Retail Delta moved from -15 to -4.9 over the past week.

That represents roughly a 65% reduction in net selling pressure from large wallet holders. For several weeks prior, these participants had been consistently selling into every rally.

$BTC

Whale vs Retail Delta slowly shifting back to neutral. Down from -15 to -4.9; nearly a ~65% reduction in net selling pressure over the last week.

For context, these institutional-sized wallets have been consistently net selling for the last month. Every rally higher was… pic.twitter.com/GygYWAvDeM

— Ardi (@ArdiNSC) March 4, 2026

Ardi noted that every price increase over the past month was met with distribution from institutional-sized wallets. That pattern kept Bitcoin from sustaining any meaningful upside.

Now, however, those same wallets have moved from heavy selling to near-neutral territory. They have not flipped to net buying yet, but the trend is clearly changing.

The last time this kind of delta recovery happened within a week was during the $90,000 to $97,000 rally. That comparison caught attention across the trading community.

Still, Ardi was careful not to suggest the same outcome is guaranteed. The data points to a shift, not a confirmed reversal.

When the largest market participants ease their selling at a key resistance level, it changes the supply dynamic. Combined with the technical setup Snyder described, Bitcoin now sits at a point where both structure and sentiment are shifting together. Market participants will be watching closely for the next confirmed move.

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig wants to bring perpetual futures home, and it could happen as early as next month, according to his latest statement.

In January remarks titled “Limitless: Onshoring True Perpetual Derivatives,” he laid out a vision for pulling crypto's most widely used leverage tool into US regulatory territory.

Selig framed perps as instruments for “risk management and price discovery” that deserve “transparent and workable frameworks.”

Now, the CFTC chair suggested that the approval comes within the next month, during an appearance at the Milken Institute’s Future of Finance 2026.

This wouldn't invent crypto perps in America, as companies such as Coinbase already run “perp-style” products. Still, it could rewire where crypto leverage concentrates, how price discovery works, and whether markets have the plumbing when conviction returns.

The question is whether it fixes the market structure that broke when liquidity fled.

What's actually changingThe US already has crypto perpetual-adjacent products.

Coinbase Derivatives lists “US Perpetual-Style Futures,” which are long-dated contracts designed to track spot without offshore perps' no-expiry structure.

Recent snapshots show roughly $137 million in Bitcoin contracts' open interest and daily volume around $1.35 billion.

Global Bitcoin derivatives volume runs $85 billion per 24 hours with $43.6 billion in open interest, meaning US-regulated slices capture 1.6% of daily flow and 0.3% of outstanding leverage.

US Bitcoin perpetual futures capture $1.4 billion daily volume and $137 million open interest compared to $85 billion and $43.6 billion globally.Selig's push for “true perpetuals” aims to close that gap. True perps have no fixed maturity and use funding-rate mechanisms to anchor prices to spot, a classic offshore architecture that dominates Binance, OKX, and Deribit.

Regulatory clarity would allow multiple US venues to list them under standardized rules, creating competition rather than a single implementation.

The CFTC chair explicitly pointed to the need to build a pathway “prior leadership failed to create.”

The difference between “perp-style” and “true perps” isn't semantic. One is a workaround, the other is actual plumbing offshore markets run on, now eligible for onshore clearing, broker distribution, and US collateral rules.

FeatureU.S. “Perpetual-Style” (long-dated)“True Perps” (no-expiry + funding)Expiry / maturityFixed maturity, often long-dated (e.g., multi-year futures) designed to behave like a perp without being oneNo expiry (perpetual swap); position can be held indefinitelyFunding-rate mechanism (spot anchoring)No classic perp funding loop. Anchoring to spot comes from contract design + arbitrage, but it’s still an expiring futureYes. Periodic funding payments between longs/shorts push perp price back toward spotPrimary venues todayPrimarily U.S.-regulated venues (e.g., Coinbase Derivatives as the flagship example)Dominated by offshore crypto venues (Binance/OKX/Deribit-style markets)Clearing modelU.S.-cleared futures stack: regulated DCM + clearinghouse framework (risk controls, margin rules, reporting)Usually exchange-cleared inside the offshore venue (often vertically integrated); rulebooks vary by jurisdictionCollateral eligibilityTypically cash USD and/or Treasuries (depending on venue/clearing); tokenized collateral/stablecoin margin is being explored but not universalOften crypto + stablecoins as margin (USDT/USDC, BTC/ETH), plus cross-margin across products (venue-specific)Typical access railsBrokers/FCMs and institutional risk systems; more “tradfi-style” onboarding and compliance; retail access depends on broker/venueDirect exchange accounts with global retail access; fast onboarding; fewer intermediated distribution railsLiquidity outcome (basis, spreads, depth)Can improve regulated price discovery, but liquidity may start thinner; basis/track vs spot depends on arbitrage depth and margin efficiencyHistorically deepest liquidity in crypto;The plumbing that mattersLiquidity arrives when the entire stack, consisting of clearing, collateral, distribution, and arbitrage, functions efficiently.

April's potential approval matters across four channels.

The first is the product pathway, as perps need clarity on contract specs, funding mechanics, surveillance, and risk controls to scale beyond a single venue.

Selig's remarks address this directly. Clearer standards mean more venues can compete, compressing spreads and deepening books.

The second channel is collateral and margin: Selig prioritized expanding eligible tokenized collateral. Market makers scale when they can quickly post efficient collateral across venues.

Coinbase Derivatives and Nodal Clear explored USDC as margin collateral, turning stablecoins into market infrastructure. Lower collateral friction increases order-book depth and reduces volatility “air pockets.”

If cash, Treasuries, and tokenized assets are all eligible for margin, it is possible to support larger balances, faster capital rotation, and continuous market-making. This technical plumbing determines whether $1 billion in margin supports $10 billion or $50 billion in position capacity.

Distribution is the third channel, as offshore perps dominate through one-click global access.

Onshore scale requires broker rails. Interactive Brokers already offers Coinbase's nano Bitcoin futures, demonstrating that distribution pipes are forming. Easier access boosts liquidity but also mainstreams leverage.

Arbitrage is the fourth channel affected. Deeper onshore perps tighten linkages between derivatives, spot, and ETFs. Market makers can hedge spot or ETF inventory with US-cleared perps, improving price discovery and compressing dislocations.

Basis and funding arbitrage become smoother under consistent rules, which can dampen volatility but also transmit leverage shocks faster during stress. The trade-off is efficiency versus fragility.

How much liquidity movesTo calculate how much liquidity this change could move, Coinbase's current baseline, consisting of $1.35 billion daily volume and $137 million open interest, is a decent starting point.

In a narrow scenario, April enables professional-only true perps. This mostly triggers migration: a shift in flow from offshore venues to US clearing.

US BTC perp open interest could rise from $137 million to $500 million, then to $1 billion, over the next few quarters. Daily volume might expand from $1.35 billion to $2–$4 billion as more venues and expanded collateral reduce friction.

The primary change isn't raw size, but US price discovery credibility and reduced offshore counterparty concentration. When stress arrives, having leverage distributed across US-cleared venues rather than concentrated offshore matters for systemic stability.

On the other hand, a broad scenario consists of true perps becoming scalable across multiple US venues.

If the US share of global BTC derivatives volume rises toward 10-15%, which is reasonable if plumbing works, that implies $8.5 billion to $12.8 billion per day onshore at current activity levels.

Much would be re-homing existing leverage, but a location shift changes regulatory risk, liquidation dynamics, and how US macro news translates into crypto.

The numbers matter for scale, but the honest read is that perps don't create demand. They create the capacity to express conviction with leverage, in either direction.

The bull case isn't that perps force prices up, but that better plumbing makes demand catalysts translate into sustained moves when they arrive.

Onshore crypto perp liquidity scenarios show narrow approval boosting daily volume to $2-4 billion, while broad multi-venue scalability could reach $8.5-12.8 billion.Q3 rebound connectionMultiple forecasts point to the third quarter as a potential inflection.

CryptoQuant's Julio Moreno has been cited as expecting the bearish phase to end around the third quarter.

A March note from 21Shares argued that leverage and positioning have reset, as open interest and leverage fell, reducing cascade risk and setting up stabilization once macro uncertainty fades.

Glassnode's February analysis described impaired liquidity and conviction consistent with “wait for conviction” accumulation.

These are data-driven arguments about market structure.

Onshore perps don't create that conviction. However, they could improve the specific conditions on which those outlooks depend. Better hedging tools mean large holders, such as ETFs, market makers, and corporates, can manage downside without dumping spot into thin markets.

When hedging is cheap and reliable, pressure to liquidate during drawdowns decreases.

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More arbitrage capacity narrows dislocations between spot, futures, and ETFs, improving “liquidity feel” for institutional re-risking.

A US regime likely implies stricter risk controls and lower maximum leverage than offshore norms (often 50x to 100x), thereby reducing the optics of an extreme liquidation cascade.

The caveat: deeper perps also make it easier to lever short. They accelerate price action, not determine direction.

The bullish link runs through smoother market functioning, tighter spreads, better hedging, and fewer forced liquidations, but it's not a guaranteed upside.

If macro conditions improve and conviction returns, onshore perps become rails that facilitate efficient capital flow. If conditions stay weak, those rails transmit selling pressure just as fast.

Retail experience shiftsAdditional impacts involve regulatory risk migration.

Leveraging moving onshore reduces systemic dependence on offshore venues during stress, which matters when those venues face regulatory crackdowns or operational failures.

Besides, stablecoin plumbing becomes infrastructure. If USDC and tokenized assets become standard margin collateral in regulated futures, they transition from trading instruments to market utilities. This is a narrative shift with compliance and adoption implications.

Another consequence is that traditional venues are normalizing 24/7 crypto. CME launches round-the-clock crypto futures and options on May 29, pending review. Always-on, regulated crypto derivatives are becoming mainstream plumbing rather than niche products.

This reinforces the broader story: crypto is being pulled into traditional market infrastructure rather than existing in parallel to it.

All of these result in a shift in retail experience. If onshore perps become widely accessible through brokers, average investors see tighter spreads and more hedging tools, but also greater temptation to use leverage.

The democratization of sophisticated derivatives cuts both ways: better tools for sophisticated users, more risk for inexperienced ones.

April windowReports suggest approval within the month, though it doesn't appear in Selig's official remarks from January 29.

CME's May 29 launch creates deadline pressure: if the CFTC wants US venues competing with offshore platforms, April allows time to build distribution before summer.

Selig framed perps as tools for “limitless” market expansion under responsible oversight, explicitly contrasting with prior leadership's failure to create workable frameworks. That's policy intent, not rhetoric.

If the CFTC delivers in April, the immediate impact will be structural, with more venues listing products, more brokers integrating access, and more collateral types becoming eligible, rather than a sudden liquidity explosion.

The 10-Qs from major crypto companies regarding the first quarter, due in May, provide the first hard data on onshore perp adoption: whether institutional participants are migrating leverage onshore or treating US perps as a compliance checkbox while keeping real flow offshore.

That's the clarity window that matters.

Why this mattersThe US already permits crypto perpetual-style trading.

April is about whether the CFTC makes true, scalable perps possible onshore, and whether that rewires where crypto leverage concentrates.

For four years, perpetual futures lived almost entirely offshore, beyond US clearing and collateral standards.

That created concentration risk, regulatory arbitrage, and a persistent liquidity drain, with the biggest leverage pools sitting outside US market surveillance and investor protections.

Selig's push reverses that trajectory, pulling the offshore product that dominates crypto leverage into the same regulatory framework governing traditional futures.

If it works, the US becomes credible for crypto price discovery and risk management, not just a secondary market. If rules are too restrictive, collateral requirements are too burdensome, or distribution is too narrow, offshore dominance persists, and regulatory efforts become symbolic rather than structural.

For markets anticipating a third-quarter rebound, the stakes are clear.

Better plumbing doesn't create demand, but determines how efficiently demand translates into price action when it arrives.

Onshore perps won't make a conviction return. They'll decide what happens when it does.

Mentioned in this articlePosted in

Bitcoin (BTC) has entered one of its most oversold weekly levels on record following months of persistent selling pressure, according to research and brokerage firm K33.

"If you want to be wrong, follow the masses," Head of Research Vetle Lunde wrote in the firm's latest report, pointing to widespread pessimism and defensive positioning across crypto derivatives markets.

After enduring six consecutive weekly declines and five straight down months — one of the longest losing streaks in the asset's history — bitcoin's weekly relative strength index recently fell to 26.84 — the third-lowest reading on record, Lunde noted.

Per the report, much of the recent decline has been driven by selling from long-term holders and institutional investors. Throughout the fourth quarter of 2025, supply aged six months or more declined sharply, while exchange-traded investors reduced exposure by nearly 100,000 BTC, and CME futures open interest dropped to two-year lows, Lunde said. However, these outflows have recently begun to ease.

Derivatives markets show extreme bearish positioning K33 highlighted derivatives markets as one of the clearest indicators of current sentiment. The 30-day average funding rate in bitcoin perpetual futures recently turned negative, marking only the tenth time such a condition has occurred since 2018.

Negative funding rates indicate persistent demand to reduce long exposure or establish short positions, pushing perpetual futures to trade at discounts relative to spot markets.

Options markets show similar sentiment. Traders have been paying heavily for downside protection — "in other words, [they have] been willing to pay a chunky premium for bearish bets," Lunde said.

Previous periods of such negative funding have often been followed by stronger bitcoin returns, particularly over longer time horizons. Based on historical data, average 30-day returns after similar regimes have been about 13% with a 56% win rate, improving to a 78% win rate over 90 and 180 days, with average gains of 62% and 101%, respectively, Lunde noted.

Despite the defensive derivatives positioning, bitcoin has shown relative stability during escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Following U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran and subsequent retaliation — including strikes on oil refineries and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — oil and gas prices surged and equity markets declined, while bitcoin posted modest gains over the same period.

Lunde said bitcoin's resilience partly reflects the significant de-risking over recent months. Institutional exposure on CME has fallen roughly 35%, while ETF investors reduced holdings by about 90,000 BTC over the past five months. Meanwhile, selling pressure from long-term holders appears to be easing, with supply aged six months or more beginning to increase again, he added. Bitcoin is also consolidating near its 200-week moving average — a level that has historically coincided with market bottoms.

"The worst is behind us; now we wait," Lunde wrote.

Bitcoin is currently trading just below $71,000, according to The Block's BTC price page, up 4.7% over the past 24 hours and 8.7% in the last week.

"We see no compelling reason to sell BTC at current levels," the analyst concluded, arguing that the market's current risk-reward profile favors accumulation even though bottoming phases in bitcoin historically take time to develop.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

© 2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed back toward the low-$70,000s on Wednesday, even as traders have continued to price geopolitical disruption across the Middle East and push out expectations for near-term rate cuts.

According to The Block’s price page, bitcoin is up over 7% in the last 24 hours and was leading crypto market gains at press time. Ethereum (ETH) similarly surged in price, along with the broader market, as bitcoin rallied.

ETF flows cushion upside move The move has coincided with a renewed bid for U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds after weeks of chop that left crypto markets struggling to sustain upside momentum.

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded about $225 million of net inflows on March 3, following roughly $458 million of inflows the day before, with no funds posting net outflows in the March 2 session, SoSoValue data shows.

Ether’s ETF complex has been steadier but less decisive. U.S.-listed spot ether ETFs saw about $38.7 million of net inflows on March 2 before flipping back to roughly $10.9 million of net outflows on March 3.

Multiple analysts have pointed to a market that has absorbed the latest geopolitical headlines more cleanly than many had expected, allowing risk appetite to reassert itself as U.S. trading reopened.

Derivatives spike Still, derivatives positioning suggests that the rebound has not been purely spot-led. On Tuesday, Glassnode said perpetual open interest posted its largest daily percentage increase since July 2025, with leverage expanding as bitcoin tested about $69,400 — a level it said has repeatedly acted as a rejection zone when profit-taking flares.

The bounce has also landed just days after CoinShares data showed $1 billion of net weekly inflows into digital asset investment products, snapping a five-week outflow streak. James Butterfill, CoinShares’ head of research, read the shift as investors moving from de-risking into "where’s the entry?" mode, even with macro uncertainty still unresolved.

Yet, some experts have also cautioned against treating ETF flow prints as a one-to-one proxy for immediate spot buying. Bitfinex analysts, in a report published March 3, argued that regulated institutional products on Wall Street can create timing gaps between ETF share activity and underlying bitcoin purchases, potentially muting the near-term price response even when demand looks healthy.

Others have stressed that geopolitics remains the swing factor for cross-asset volatility, especially if energy supply constraints deepen. In a March 4 market note, QCP Capital said bitcoin’s relative strength has stood out as the conflict has tightened conditions for risk assets, while warning that further turbulence could follow if disruption persists around the Strait of Hormuz.

Bitcoin was last trading near $71,400, while ether was also higher on the session above $2,050, The Block's prices page shows.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

© 2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Journalist

Posted: March 4, 2026

Sharplink is making waves in the market with its latest Ethereum [ETH] bet that one can’t unsee. The company recently reported a major milestone, earning about $28.1 million in staking rewards, equal to 14,516 ETH.

By staking almost 100% of its Ethereum treasury, Sharplink is using its holdings to generate yield.

Yet, despite this move, data from CoinGecko indicates that Sharplink’s treasury is sitting on roughly $1.39 billion in unrealized losses due to Ethereum’s price decline.

Source: CoinGecko

The company currently controls about 0.717% of Ethereum’s total supply, and by earning staking rewards daily, it slowly increases its ETH holdings.

Sharplink vs. Bitmine The situation becomes more interesting when Sharplink is compared with other large institutional players in the Ethereum market.

One of the most notable players is Bitmine Immersion Technologies, which has been aggressively increasing its Ethereum holdings.

According to its latest update, the company announced that its treasury had grown to 4.47 million ETH, representing about 3.71% of Ethereum’s circulating supply.

When compared with Bitmine, Sharplink’s holdings of about 864,840 ETH appear much smaller. Bitmine currently holds almost four times more Ethereum than Sharplink.

However, the two companies are following slightly different strategies. Bitmine is focused on large-scale accumulation and market influence, similar to how a market maker operates.

At the same time, it is staking around 68% of its ETH holdings, about 3 million ETH, to generate yield, which currently produces an estimated $172 million in annual staking revenue.

Sharplink, on the other hand, staking nearly 100% of its Ethereum treasury to generate rewards, is using the yield to gradually reduce its high average purchase price of $3,588 per ETH.

Border market dynamics surrounding Ethereum At the same time, the broader market is showing mixed signals. Despite these large institutional investments, both crypto-related stocks and the Ethereum market have recently experienced some weakness.

Stock of SBET fell 1.76% to $7.26, while BMNR dropped 4.16% to $19.57. Meanwhile, Ethereum itself was trading around $1,981, reflecting a 0.73% decline over the past 24 hours.

Data from Farside Investors also showed that Ethereum ETFs recorded $10.8 million in outflows on the 3rd of March. 

Source: Farside Investors

This highlights a clear contrast in the market. While retail traders and ETF investors remain cautious as Ethereum struggles near $2,000, corporate treasuries are steadily accumulating ETH.

Sharplink in 2025 was different To conclude, it is important to address the biggest contradiction in Sharplink’s strategy. While the company is staking nearly all of its Ethereum treasury, last year’s on-chain activity shows a more practical reality.

According to Onchain Lens, Sharplink in November 2025 had sold 10,975 ETH worth about $33.54 million through an OTC transaction with Galaxy Digital.

This suggests that even though the company says most of its ETH remains staked, the pressure from unrealized loss and an average purchase price may be forcing it to make adjustments.

Final Summary While ETF investors show caution, corporate treasuries appear more comfortable accumulating Ethereum at current levels. SharpLink’s strategy will succeed only if Ethereum’s price recovers enough to cover staking rewards and accumulation. 

MARA Holdings may be poised to test the current BTC treasury meta. Major miners have been accumulating BTC as a strategic treasury rather than treating it as working capital. A shift could have implications that extend well beyond a single company.

The company's March 2 filing authorizes balance-sheet sales of its entire 53,822 BTC treasury, representing a complete reversal of its 2024 “retain all mined and purchased Bitcoin for the foreseeable future” policy.

Bitcoin trades around $68,000, down nearly 46% from late-2025 highs, while market depth has thinned to levels where modest selling creates an outsized impact.

The timing raises a question: what happens when one of the industry's largest holders treats Bitcoin as working capital rather than as a matter of conviction?

MARA Holdings timeline shows the company's shift from a 2024 HODL policy to authorizing balance-sheet Bitcoin sales by March 2026.The policy that wasn't supposed to changeMARA's 2024 10-K positioned it alongside Strategy as a Bitcoin maximalist.

The pivot began in late 2025, when MARA sold roughly 4,076 BTC for $413.1 million, at an implied average of $101,000 per BTC. The 2026 filing permits balance sheet sales, making Bitcoin “a readily convertible source of liquidity.”

Three factors sharpen the stakes.

First, 15,315 BTC are loaned or pledged as collateral, representing 28% of holdings. That leaves 38,507 BTC unrestricted: $2.6 billion or 60 days of post-halving issuance.

Second, MARA recorded a $422.2 million fair-value decline in 2025 and a $69.1 million trading loss.

Third, MARA partnered with Starwood Capital to develop AI data centers targeting 1 GW, with a path beyond 2.5 GW, a capital-intensive infrastructure that pulls liquidity needs forward.

The logic: fund operations and AI by selling BTC instead of diluting shareholders. The trade-off transforms MARA from a Bitcoin ETF into a capital allocator holding volatile assets.

MARA's 53,822 BTC treasury breaks down to 38,507 unrestricted coins worth $2.6 billion and 15,315 encumbered through loans or collateral.The timing isn't randomRegarding “why now?”, three drivers converge.

First, balance sheet pressure. Post-halving, rewards were cut to 3.125 BTC, while difficulty and energy costs squeezed margins.

Output fell 7% to 8,799 BTC despite growing hashrate to 66.4 EH/s. When Bitcoin drops from the $76,000 to $126,000 range to $60,000, liquidity becomes urgent.

The company faces $350 million in convertible notes maturing in 2027.

Second, AI capex. MARA's Starwood partnership targets sites toggling between Bitcoin mining and AI compute. Starwood leads design and construction; MARA contributes sites and retains up to 50% ownership.

This bets power-to-compute monetization beats post-halving mining returns.

Third, market microstructure. Liquidity has deteriorated since late 2025, with spot volumes running 25% to 30% below year-ago levels. MARA, as a discretionary seller, doesn't need to crash markets. Instead, it creates an overhang narrative when sentiment is fragile.

MARA formalized this not despite weak conditions, but because weak conditions make BTC sales credible versus costlier funding.

The overhang isn't just MARAPublic miners collectively hold 116,697 BTC, down 4.42% month over month.

MARA's 53,822 BTC represents nearly half of the total. The broader pool includes Riot Platforms (18,005 BTC), CleanSpark (13,513 BTC), Hut 8 (10,278 BTC), and Core Scientific (2,537 BTC).

Core Scientific expects to monetize “substantially all” holdings in 2026. In January, it sold 1,900 BTC for $175 million at $92,000 per coin. Bitdeer liquidated its entire treasury in late February.

Miners now treat Bitcoin as inventory to monetize when AI infrastructure economics beat hash-rate expansion.

The question is how quickly and at what scale others will follow, and three scenarios frame the range.

In the conservative scenario, miners sell production, but keep treasuries intact. A 10% non-MARA drawdown equals 6,287 BTC or 14 days of issuance.

In a moderate case, miners fund AI capex by selling 5% to 10% of their holdings. For MARA, that's 2,700 BTC to 5,400 BTC, or 6 to 12 days of issuance. This is equivalent to $180 million to $361 million.

A 25% collective drawdown releases 29,174 BTC, or 65 days of issuance.

In the aggressive scenario, a 50% drawdown would put 58,349 BTC into markets, equivalent to 130 days of new supply. The risk is narrative, not volume.

Bitcoin's 24-hour volume exceeds $50 billion, but when multiple miners become known sellers during macro stress, impact runs through sentiment and derivatives positioning rather than spot prints.

MARA's filing permits others to follow without appearing distressed.

ScenarioWho sellsBTC amountEst. notional value (at ~$68k)“Days of new issuance” equivalent (at ~450 BTC/day)ConservativeNon-MARA miners (10% drawdown)6,287 BTC~$428M~14 daysModerate (MARA)MARA sells 5–10% of holdings2,700–5,400 BTC~$184M–$367M~6–12 daysModerate (industry)Public miners collective (25% drawdown)29,174 BTC~$2.0B~65 daysAggressivePublic miners collective (50% drawdown)58,349 BTC~$4.0B~130 daysWhat the shift revealsOn top of the three scenarios, three competing narratives emerge.

The first is the AI pivot: miners repurpose power infrastructure into data centers, using Bitcoin as fuel to fund them.

MARA's Starwood partnership targets AI-capable infrastructure with toggle economics. This is a strategic reallocation, consisting of power certainty to capacity certainty.

The second narrative is the tactical risk management: after $422.2 million in fair-value declines and $69.1 million in trading losses, MARA treats Bitcoin as a managed position.

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Thin depth and macro sensitivity increase the value of discretionary liquidity tools.

The last narrative is a structural regime shift: the end of miner HODL. The contrast between 2024's “retain all BTC” and 2026's “may buy or sell from time to time” signals that miners behave like capital allocators, optimizing returns across mining, grid services, and AI leases.

Each narrative carries different supply implications.

If an AI pivot happens, the BTC sales fund transitions. In this case, supply pressure is front-loaded but finite.

In case the risk management narrative is the one moving forward, sales track volatility, making miners countercyclical sellers.

Lastly, a regime shift would mean that the approximately 117,000 BTC miner treasury becomes subject to active management, changing baseline assumptions about supply absorption.

The clock that mattersThe next clarity window is MARA's 10-Q form for the first quarter, projected mid-May.

Investors will scrutinize how much BTC was monetized post-policy change, whether AI milestones tie to treasury drawdowns, and what guidance on minimum reserves or sell cadence is provided.

The gap until May creates a narrative vacuum that macro conditions will fill.

Bitcoin trades in risk-off shape, driven by energy shocks and inflation fears, exactly when “who might be forced to sell” dominates.

MARA's filing doesn't say it will sell a majority. Still, authorization alone creates price-sensitive reference when liquidity is thin enough that the execution method determines whether a $1 billion sale is absorbed quietly or amplifies downside.

Starwood's timeline adds urgency. The partnership targets 1 GW near-term, with a path to 2.5 GW, but “near-term” is undefined.

If MARA accelerates construction to capture AI demand, funding needs compress. If slower buildouts, BTC sales may stretch over years. That determines whether MARA's treasury becomes a multi-year drag or a one-time recapitalization.

If the first-quarter earnings reveal multiple miners expanding sale authorizations or linking BTC monetization to AI capex, markets will reprice the entire miner treasury base as supply overhang rather than strategic reserve.

That repricing doesn't require actual selling, it just means investors stop treating miner holdings as locked supply.

What's actually at stakeMARA's shift matters less for what it permits than what it signals.

For four years, miners positioned treasuries as differentiators by aligning equity performance with BTC appreciation. That worked when Bitcoin rallied, capital was cheap, and post-halving economics were theoretical.

Now Bitcoin trades nearly 50% off highs, capital markets favor AI over crypto, and post-halving margins are tighter than modeled.

If MARA executes AI pivots successfully and uses BTC sales as one-time funding, the treasury drawdown story ends cleanly. If AI projects drag on or Bitcoin recovers faster than expected, miners may have sold reserves at cyclical lows to fund underperforming projects.

For crypto markets, stakes are clear.

Miner treasuries were among the last bastions of non-speculative Bitcoin demand, representing entities that accumulated Bitcoin for operational purposes.

If that cohort shifts to active management, Bitcoin loses a structural bid and gains a structural seller. When the world's largest Bitcoin miner by holdings formalizes its ability to sell its entire stack, it's a signal that even believers are hedging.

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On early March 4, 2026, bitcoin surged past $71,000, gaining nearly 8% in a single hour as it decoupled from crashing global equity markets. Broad Rally Across the Digital Asset Landscape In another striking display of decoupling, bitcoin aggressively breached the $71,000 threshold during the morning session on March 4, 2026.

Bitcoin has staged a stunning V-shaped recovery, surging back above $71,000 for the first time since the Iran conflict erupted, as traders bet on de-escalation following reports that U.S.-led strikes have significantly weakened Tehran's command structure.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Chart. Source: CoinCodexBTC climbed as high as $71,450 intraday before settling around $71,120, marking a roughly 6.5% gain from Wednesday lows near $66,800 and reversing nearly all of the war-driven selloff from earlier in the week. The rebound coincides with Brent crude pulling back from $84 peaks toward $81 after initial panic over the Strait of Hormuz eased slightly, reducing some of the macro risk-off pressure on crypto.

Short Squeeze Fuels Bitcoin's $5K Rally in HoursThe move triggered a massive short squeeze, with over $320 million in leveraged short positions liquidated across major exchanges in the past 24 hours, more than 85% of total crypto liquidations.

Bitcoin-specific shorts accounted for roughly $280 million of that carnage, acting as forced buy orders that accelerated the rally once BTC decisively broke back above the critical $69,000-$70,000 resistance zone.

Ethereum followed suit, jumping 7% to around $2,074, while altcoins like Solana (+9%) and XRP (+6%) posted sharper gains as risk appetite returned. Total crypto market cap rebounded above $2.1 trillion, with spot volumes spiking 45% to $98 billion as dip-buyers piled in.

Iran De-Escalation Bets Drive Risk-On ReversalMarkets are repricing the Iran narrative from "prolonged regional war" to "contained regime decapitation." Confirmation of Supreme Leader Khamenei's death and reports of internal power struggles in Tehran have shifted sentiment toward hopes that successor infighting and U.S. naval dominance in the Gulf could shorten the conflict window.

President Trump's comments that "the hard part is done" and offers of reconstruction aid further fueled optimism that Hormuz tanker traffic might resume within days, capping oil's war premium below $90 per barrel. That reduces the tail risk of sustained $4.50+ U.S. gas prices and global inflation spikes, allowing high-beta assets like Bitcoin to snap back.

Outlook: $75K Next if Oil Holds Below $85?Key support now sits at $69,500-$70,000, with resistance at $72,500 and the $74,000 cycle high from late February. Derivatives data show open interest rebuilding rapidly, but funding rates remain mildly positive, suggesting fresh longs rather than excessive euphoria.

If Brent stabilizes below $85 and Iran headlines stay constructive, analysts eye a push toward $75,000 by week's end; renewed Hormuz blockades or Iranian counterstrikes could easily retest $68,000.

For now, Bitcoin's reclaiming of $71K signals the war shock may have been fully absorbed, positioning BTC as a twisted "digital gold" that thrives on both chaos and its resolution.

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

Whale Alert, a popular cryptocurrency tracker that keeps an eye on large crypto transactions, has spotted a massive Ethereum withdrawal from the world’s largest exchange, Binance.

The transaction occurred as the crypto market turned green again after spending a long period in the red zone, and the second-largest crypto, Ethereum, has regained the $2,000 price zone.

77,000 ETH leaves Binance for unknown walletThe aforementioned data source has revealed that approximately nine hours ago, an anonymous cryptocurrency investor withdrew an enormous amount of Ethereum from the largest crypto trading venue in the world, Binance.

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While it may look like a purchase and a withdrawal to a cold wallet for long-term storage, in reality, there are also other options — exchange maintenance, staking or even a whale rearranging his crypto holdings.

Still, the amount of ETH in question is impressive: 77,000 ETH valued at $152,621,215 at the time of the transfer.

In the meantime, another on-chain data source on X, @OnchainLens, spread the word about a bullish whale who bought 4,900 ETH for nearly $10 million, also on Binance. The data source believes that the whale’s behavior shows he is “likely to buy more.”

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Stock markets nosedive, while crypto holds strongBitcoin and top altcoins are, for once, acting as a safe haven, as multiple influencers on the X social media app have pointed out, while the main stock market indexes and the traditional inflation hedge, gold, are taking a deep plunge.

Among those are the JAN3 boss, Samson Mow, and the founder and CEO of Crypto Bureau, Nic Puckrin. Both have pointed at the plummeting Nasdaq, S&P 500 and South Korea's KOSPI index. Gold has shown negative market dynamics as well. Mow believes that “something has shifted” around Bitcoin, assuming that BTC has been decoupling from stocks.

In the last few days the S&P, gold, and KOSPI all tanked but Bitcoin didn’t even flinch.

Something has shifted.

Decouple.

— Samson Mow (@Excellion) March 4, 2026 The stock markets are reacting heavily to the unfolding geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which is having a great impact on oil prices and, therefore, the energy market in general. Hence, there was a big drop in the major stock market indexes.

Meanwhile, the crypto market is back in the green zone, with Bitcoin having rebounded to $71,720, staging a nearly 8% surge over the past 24 hours.

Seventeen of the top 25 largest Bitcoin ETF holders added to their positions while ordinary investors were selling. That split tells a story that goes beyond a single month of on-chain data.

Smart Money Moves Against The Crowd Bitcoin exchange-traded funds pulled in $1.5 billion over five trading sessions, capping the stretch with a single-day inflow of $458 million — one of the strongest readings this quarter.

Retail is leaving crypto at the fastest pace since October.

During the same time, 17 of the top 25 largest Bitcoin ETF holders added more to their positions.

Institutions now control roughly 12% of the total supply.

This divergence shows they are here for a different reason… pic.twitter.com/ZiUFoG2WQZ

— Zac Townsend (@ztownsend) March 3, 2026

That buying came as Bitcoin traded in the mid-$60,000 range, well off the October peak of $126,200 that triggered a broad retail exit.

Data from analyst Zac Townsend shows retail traders have been dumping BTC at a fast clip since that high. Yet the biggest institutional players went the other direction, quietly stacking more.

The gap between those two groups is stark. It reflects a split in confidence that analysts say often appears before major price moves — though the direction of any move is never guaranteed.

🧐 Over the past month, Long Term Holders added 212,000 BTC. pic.twitter.com/lr9Zfe4TtI

— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) March 3, 2026

Long-Term Holders Accumulate $14B Worth Of Bitcoin On-chain data tracked by CryptoQuant tells a similar story from a different angle. Bitcoin’s long-term holders — wallets that have sat on their coins for at least 150 days — added 212,000 BTC over the past 30 days. At current prices, that haul is worth more than $14 billion.

CryptoQuant verified author J.A. Maartunn flagged the trend in a post Tuesday, pointing to the platform’s Long-Term Holder Net Position Change metric. The tool measures whether this class of holders is buying or selling over any given 30-day window. A reading above zero signals accumulation. Below zero means they’re distributing.

BTCUSD trading at $71,383 on the 24-hour chart: TradingView For most of 2025, that metric sat in negative territory. Long-term holders were selling — heavily. Reports indicate the shift began as Bitcoin retested multi-year price lows and selling pressure started to ease. That’s when buyers in this category came back in force.

What Comes Next Bitcoin dipped to around $60,000 on February 6, extending a roughly 15% pullback that shook out weaker hands and rattled short-term traders. The drop appears to have worked as a magnet for buyers with longer time horizons.

Accumulation by large holders has historically been read as a bullish signal. When sustained buying from this group builds up, it tends to tighten available supply, which can set the stage for upward price pressure.

Whether that dynamic plays out here depends on broader market conditions — macro sentiment, regulatory developments, and demand from new buyers all factor in.

Featured image from Bitpanda, chart from TradingView

TLDR Table of Contents

TLDRUnderstanding STRC’s StructurePre-Market Performance for MSTRGet 3 Free Stock Ebooks STRC preferred stock recorded $198.7M in trading volume Tuesday, marking the highest single-session activity in 2026 Volume analysis suggests Strategy accumulated approximately 1,000 BTC Tuesday—the largest one-day buy since STRC’s July 2025 debut Monday’s STRC trading indicates roughly 763 BTC was acquired, pushing the two-session total to approximately 1,762 BTC The company increased STRC’s dividend rate to 11.5% recently, marking the seventh adjustment since inception MSTR shares jumped over 7% during pre-market hours as bitcoin surpassed $71,000 for the first time in four weeks Strategy appears to have executed a substantial bitcoin accumulation push this week.

Volume data from its perpetual preferred instrument, Stretch (STRC), suggests the firm acquired approximately 1,000 BTC during Tuesday’s session—representing the most significant single-day purchase connected to this security since trading commenced in July 2025.

Strategy Inc, MSTR

STRC volume reached $198.7 million on Tuesday, significantly exceeding the 30-day average of $123.3 million.

Approximately $177 million of Tuesday’s activity occurred above STRC’s $100 par value—the critical price point enabling Strategy to deploy its at-the-market (ATM) issuance mechanism for capital raising.

These figures derive from a calculation framework provided by STRC.live. The methodology assumes 40% of trading volume above the $100 threshold represents ATM issuance, with a 2.5% brokerage fee subtracted before computing estimated bitcoin acquisitions.

Monday’s trading activity pointed to roughly 763 BTC purchased through STRC operations. The two-session accumulation totals around 1,762 BTC based on these estimates.

Understanding STRC’s Structure Strategy has characterized STRC as functioning similarly to a short-term, high-yield savings instrument.

The security distributes monthly cash payments, with the dividend rate modified monthly to maintain trading near the $100 par value while minimizing volatility.

Strategy elevated STRC’s dividend rate to 11.5% in its most recent adjustment—the seventh rate increase since the product’s introduction.

Capital generated from STRC issuances flows directly into Strategy’s bitcoin acquisition strategy, which draws funding from various sources including equity sales, convertible debt, and preferred securities.

Pre-Market Performance for MSTR Strategy’s common shares, MSTR, advanced more than 7% during Tuesday’s pre-market session, trading near $142 per share.

The upward movement coincided with bitcoin pushing past $71,000—a price level not seen in more than 30 days.

Strategy maintains its position as the world’s largest publicly traded corporate bitcoin holder, building its holdings through successive capital raises utilizing various financial instruments.

Tuesday’s $198.7 million STRC trading volume represents the peak level recorded for this security throughout 2026.

With bitcoin trading around $71,000, a 1,000 BTC acquisition would require approximately $71 million—comfortably within the range suggested by Tuesday’s STRC trading patterns.

MSTR common shares were changing hands around $142 during pre-market trading on Tuesday, March 4, 2026.

TLDR: The team behind Solana meme SANAE Token publicly admitted to communication failures that misled token holders and related parties. Major changes announced include token holder compensation, a SANAE Token name change, and a full structural review of the project. A wallet snapshot was recorded on March 4, 2026, at 12:00 PM to fairly identify SANAE Token holders eligible for compensation. The Solana meme SANAE Token team confirmed operators collected zero fees or sales revenue throughout the project’s entire operation.
The team behind Solana meme SANAE Token has publicly admitted to critical communication failures that caused widespread confusion.

The Japan is Back project team issued a formal apology directed at Prime Minister Takai’s office, the endorsed support group “Team Sanae Will Change Japan,” and all token holders.

Discussions between both parties were facilitated through neu. The team has since outlined three concrete steps to address the fallout from the incident.

Project Team Takes Full Accountability for Communication Breakdown The Japan is Back team did not deflect blame in their public statement. They acknowledged that their communication methods and the sharing of mutual understanding fell short throughout the process. The team stated clearly that the confusion was entirely due to their own shortcomings.

As a direct result of the breakdown, Prime Minister Takai, all related parties, and token holders experienced significant inconvenience.

The team described this outcome as contrary to the project’s original purpose, which was to deliver citizens’ voices to political leadership. The gap between intention and execution is what the team says led to the current situation.

【SANAE TOKENに関するお詫びと今後の対応について】

Japan is Backプロジェクトチームです。

私たちはこれまで、高市事務所ならびに高市総理公認の後援会である「チームサナエが日本を変える」と、neu社を通じて協議を重ね、連携していく方針について双方のSNS等でご報告してまいりました。…

— NoBorder/ノーボーダー【公式】 (@NoBorder_info) March 4, 2026

To move forward, three major actions were announced. These include compensation for all SANAE Token holders, a name change for the token itself, and a full structural review of the project.

An expert-led verification committee will also be established to create measures that prevent similar incidents in the future.

Serial entrepreneur Yuji Mizoguchi reinforced the team’s position through his social media account. He stated the team has “no intention of denying the statements issued by Prime Minister Takaichi’s side.”

He added that compensation or refunds to non-speculative token holders represent the most the team can currently offer.

A fundamental review or possible suspension of the Japan is Back project is also being explored with expert guidance.

Wallet Snapshot Taken as Token Restructuring Begins To manage the compensation process fairly, the team moved quickly on identifying eligible holders. A snapshot of all holding wallets was taken on March 4, 2026, at 12:00 PM as a reference point.

This step was taken to prevent confusion caused by speculative trading ahead of any compensation announcement.

Compensation details are still being finalized in coordination with specialists. The team confirmed that a formal update will be shared as soon as the terms are confirmed. Token holders are being asked to wait for an official announcement before drawing conclusions.

On the financial side, the team addressed concerns about operator conduct directly. They stated that neither the issuer nor the operators received any fees or sales revenue from the project at any point.

The LP tokens connected to liquidity provided on Raydium remain locked. The Raydium Fee Key NFT, issued at the time of the liquidity lock, has been permanently burned and destroyed.

Because of this, the team says it collected no swap revenue from the decentralized exchange. The team also confirmed it will cooperate fully with any authorities that reach out regarding the matter.

3 mins mins

Key Insights:

Predict.fun integrates Probable to improve technology, execution efficiency, and yield-bearing trading on BNB Chain. Acquisition expands Predict.fun’s user base across Asia, strengthening network effects and market reach. Probable users receive USDT refunds at 2x value and points converted 1:2 to Predict Points. BNB Chain Prediction Market Predict Fun Snaps Up Probable At ptress time, Predict.fun, a fast-growing onchain prediction market on BNB Chain, announced the acquisition of Probable, an onchain platform originally incubated by PancakeSwap and YZi Labs. Since December 2025, Predict.fun has processed $1.5 billion in trading volume, with over 120,000 users and more than 3.3 million transactions.

The acquisition will improve Predict.fun’s technology, market structure, and capital efficiency. The platform aims to strengthen its infrastructure and expand its presence in the BNB ecosystem.

Technology and Market Upgrades The Probable team will join Predict.fun to enhance the platform’s protocol development. The integration will support a multi-source yield engine for trading positions, designed to increase capital efficiency and composability.

“Prediction markets live or die by their liquidity architecture and market design,” said Dingaling, founder of Predict.fun. “This acquisition accelerates our progress toward building the most capital-efficient forecasting infrastructure in the world.”

The combined teams will work on faster execution and improved market structures to support users.

Expanding Asian User Base Probable has a strong user base in key Asian markets. Bringing these users to Predict.fun expands the platform’s geographic reach and strengthens network effects in the region.

“Our vision has always been to push forward market design innovation,” said Probable representatives. “Joining forces with Predict.fun gives us the distribution, liquidity, and execution layer to scale that vision meaningfully.”

Integration With BNB Ecosystem The acquisition brings Predict.fun closer to other BNB ecosystem teams. This will create a more connected infrastructure layer for DeFi and related applications.

Probable users will have a smooth transition. USDT trading fees as of March 3, 2026, will be returned at a 2x value. Probable Points will convert to Predict Points at a 1:2 ratio. No immediate changes to accounts or open positions are expected.

About the Platforms Predict.fun is a decentralized prediction market on BNB Chain that combines yield-bearing positions with optimized market design. Probable is an onchain platform developed under PancakeSwap and YZi Labs, focusing on innovative prediction markets.

DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.

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In brief Bitcoin surged past $71,000, triggering $433M in liquidations. One analyst told Decrypt the rally is driven by positioning resets and lower supply elasticity, not a single catalyst. Geopolitical escalation could reverse gains, while containment could fuel further upside. Bitcoin's weekend rally has extended, allowing the leading crypto to push past $71,000 for the first time in three weeks—but the sustainability of its ascent hinges on the broader liquidity environment and geopolitical risks.

The top crypto reached a local top of $71,806, per data from CoinGecko, before retracing to its current price of $71,060, up 6.1% in the past 24 hours and 8.7% over the past week.

Bitcoin’s move to $71,000 is “largely driven by rising geopolitical tensions and uncertainty,” Alex J., CPO at LetsExchange, told Decrypt.

The sudden uptick triggered $433 million in liquidations across the market, per CoinGlass data, with Bitcoin and Ethereum traders accounting for roughly 68% of that total.

The rally tests whether Bitcoin can decouple from its recent risk-asset behavior and sustain momentum despite fearful sentiment and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Users on prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, put a 39% chance on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire being announced before April.

The move comes as ETF flows show signs of improvement, though sentiment remains deeply pessimistic. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index continues hovering near 10—territory signaling “extreme fear.”

“ETF flows continue to provide a structural bid, but the more immediate drivers look like positioning resets, lower post-halving supply elasticity, and improving liquidity expectations," Ranveer Arora, co-founder and CEO of Altura, told Decrypt. "In crypto markets, once selling pressure is absorbed and positioning begins to rotate, leverage and derivatives flows can accelerate price discovery quickly.”

Bitcoin’s trajectory remains tied to global liquidity, according to Arora, who believes the top crypto behaves “less like a traditional defensive asset and more like a high-beta expression of global liquidity conditions.”

“When expectations shift toward easier financial conditions, reflation, or renewed capital deployment into risk assets, Bitcoin tends to respond disproportionately,” he said.

Illia Otychenko, lead analyst at CEX.IO, noted that Bitcoin's resilience during macro tensions could revive the safe-haven narrative—though he urged caution. “It is still too early to call this a full shift,” he told Decrypt. “Bitcoin can benefit from this perception and partially withstand market pressure, but it continues to trade like a risk asset in many environments.”

“Most likely not,” LetsExchange's Alex J. said, when asked about the sustainability of this rally.

He explained that Bitcoin cannot compete with conservative assets like gold when the global financial system experiences turbulence that significantly affects how liquidity shifts between different assets.

“At the same time, we do not expect a sharp price decline either,” he said, tempering his outlook.

Arora also expects a short-term drop in Bitcoin if the Middle East conflict escalates. If it doesn't, the “path of least resistance remains higher,” he added.

Despite the fearful broader sentiment, users have flipped bullish on Bitcoin’s trajectory, putting a 51% chance on its next move being a rally to $84,000.

Daily Debrief NewsletterStart every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.

Ray Dalio cast fresh doubt on Bitcoin’s claim to safe-haven status on Tuesday, arguing that the asset still falls short of gold on privacy, institutional suitability and market structure. In a March 3 appearance on the All-In podcast, the billionaire hedge fund founder said those weaknesses help explain why Bitcoin has not behaved like gold during the current macro cycle.

Asked why Bitcoin has lagged while gold has surged, Dalio pointed first to surveillance and control. “Bitcoin does not have privacy. Any transactions can be monitored and then indirectly perhaps controlled,” he said. He then drew a line from that feature to state-level adoption. “Central banks are not going to want to buy bitcoin and be able to hold it. So, it’s not just individuals, it’s institutions and so on, but most, you know, and central banks.”

That matters because Dalio’s broader framework in the interview was built around debt stress, monetary debasement and the search for what he sees as politically neutral reserve assets. In that setup, gold remains the benchmark. He described it not as a speculative commodity, but as “the most established money” and “the second largest reserve currency that central banks hold,” arguing that its role is rooted in transferability, scarcity and the fact that it is not someone else’s liability.

Bitcoin, in Dalio’s telling, still looks different. Beyond privacy, he flagged technological uncertainty and the nature of its investor base. “There have been some questions or thoughts of the development of new technologies like quantum computing and so on. Can there be issues regarding that,” he said. “And then there’s who owns it and what are the other exposures that they have in their portfolio? It tends to have a pretty high correlation with the tech stocks.”

That last point goes to Dalio’s bigger criticism: Bitcoin may be treated as an alternative monetary asset in theory, but in practice it still trades like a risk asset. “If somebody gets squeezed in one thing, they sell something, whatever else they have,” he said, arguing that Bitcoin’s supply-demand dynamics are shaped by cross-portfolio stress in a way golds are not. He also called it “a relatively small market” and, for that reason, “a relatively controllable market.”

Ray Dalio SLAMS Bitcoin!!

“Bitcoin does not have privacy.”
“Central banks are not gonna wanna buy Bitcoin.”
“Quantum computing”
“Who owns it?”

What do you think? pic.twitter.com/NdleeHR5lB

— Altcoin Daily (@AltcoinDaily) March 3, 2026

Bitcoin Community Reacts The remarks quickly drew pushback from Bitcoin advocates on X, where the debate centered less on Dalio’s macro framing than on whether he was underestimating Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. Investor Vijay Boyapati argued that Dalio “doesn’t fully understand why central banks own gold,” saying those holdings exist partly as protection against the possibility that gold competes with sovereign currencies.

“Once Bitcoin achieves the same scale as gold (it will over time based on its significant comparative advantages over gold) central banks will be forced to own it for the same reason they own golf. Without ownership their national currency becomes vulnerable to a speculative attack from Bitcoin,” he added.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan took a more market-oriented angle: “Some hear criticism; I hear opportunity. These are the reasons bitcoin is 4% of the size of gold. If these critiques did not exist, bitcoin would already be ~$750,000/coin. I invest in bitcoin in part because I am confident these things will change over time.”

Abra CEO Bill Barhydt argued that Bitcoin’s volatility and smaller float are features of a younger monetary asset, not proof of failure, while also disputing the severity of Dalio’s quantum concerns.

I’d like to address this conversation between two people I greatly admire (@friedberg and @RayDalio) as both fellow libertarians and macro experts i try to learn from. The conversation in the video is about bitcoin but I’ve extended it to be about bitcoin vs gold. Note that… https://t.co/atznXiMdTy

— Bill Barhydt (@billbar) March 3, 2026

Zcash founder Zooko Wilcox, meanwhile, responded with a one-line jab: “I’m looking forward to Ray Dalio finding out about Zcash.”

At press time, BTC traded at $69,660.

Bitcoin must close above the 200-week EMA, 1-week chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com

Dogecoin (DOGE) price has found a robust support level around $0.088 since the beginning of February 2026.

After a heavy capitulation since early October 2025, DOGE price has potentially reached its bear market bottom and is ready for a relief rally in the near term. The top meme coin retested its $0.088 support level again on Tuesday and has gained over 3% in the past 24 hours to trade about $0.0921 at press time.

DOGE price 30-day chart. Source: Finbold 

Dogecoin price signals relief rally In the four-hour timeframe, the DOGE/USD pair has been signaling a potential relief rally. As Bitcoin’s (BTC) price crossed $71,000 earlier on Wednesday, Dogecoin’s price gained more bullish momentum.

Moreover, DOGE price has formed a potential double bottom, in the four-hour timeframe, coupled with bullish divergence of its Relative Strength Index (RSI).

DOGE/USD 4hr chart. Source: TradingView.

In the daily timeframe, DOGE price has been retesting its support level established before its 2024 bull rally. Additionally, a bullish reversal pattern characterized by a double bottom and a rising divergence of its RSI has been forming in the past four weeks.

DOGE/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

Why is DOGE price rebounding today?  The main reason why Dogecoin’s price rebounded today was its technical reversal pattern coupled with renewed demand from investors. 

Dogecoin’s 1hr chart and OI. Source: X

Furthermore, Dogecoin’s Open Interest (OI), a measure of its derivatives and futures market per given time, surged by more than 10% to hover about $403.7 million.

Dogecoin’s social volume analysis. Source: X

Meanwhile, Dogecoin price has been rebounding today amid its rising social volume, according to Santiment. Historically, low social volume for Dogecoin has resulted in market rebound and vice versa. As such, Santiment expects Dogecoin price to continue rebounding in the near future until its social volume hits overheated levels.

BTC price upside returned during Wednesday's Asia trading session as Bitcoin attacked a long-term trend line and psychological levels.

Bitcoin (BTC) passed $71,000 on Wednesday as geopolitical tensions fueled ongoing volatility.

Key points:

Bitcoin price action teases a fresh breakout after failing to hold $70,000 since January.

Analysis sees the end of a large “accumulation phase” now in play.

Geopolitical nerves stay focused on oil and the Strait of Hormuz embargo.

Bitcoin suddenly jumps 5% after tense FebruaryData from TradingView confirmed 5% BTC price gains on the day, taking BTC/USD to its highest levels in almost a month.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Strength suddenly entered during the Asia trading session, with price crossing key trend lines including the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) and old 2021 all-time high at $69,000.

BTC/USD one-day chart with 200-week EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Commenting, Lars Kooistra, known as The Composite Trader on YouTube, eyed the culmination of an “extremely extended accumulation schematic.”

“Right now it is decisional time, we have an extremely extended accumulation schematic which usually causes two potential scenarios: Aggressively close above the range high = search for buyside liquidity. Deviate the range high followed by bearish break = full bearish reversal towards the lows,” he told X followers.

BTC/USD perpetual contract two-hour chart. Source: Lars Kooistra/X
Trader Alan Tardigrade, meanwhile, revealed a potential support flip involving a downward-sloping trend line on the daily chart.

$BTC/daily#Bitcoin is holding above the Descending Trendline after yesterday’s breakout 🔥 pic.twitter.com/DWkYGktQzm

— Trader Tardigrade (@TATrader_Alan) March 4, 2026 “The journey to new ATHs for $BTC has begun. Altcoins will outperform,” trader Moustache added, adopting an even more bullish interpretation of recent price action. 

“This is a picture-perfect retest of the 2021 all-time high.” BTC/USD two-week chart. Source: Moustache/XBTC price “strength” on macro radarMacro-based perspectives were cautious amid a lack of certainty over how tensions in the Middle East could play out next.

As Cointelegraph reported, markets were particularly concerned about the fate of oil traffic through the now-closed Strait of Hormuz.

“The world will likely come together to force Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz if this drags on,” trading company QCP Capital predicted in its latest Market Color analysis released on Wednesday.

QCP acknowledged that Bitcoin’s newfound “strength” could signal the return of risk-on sentiment.

“Energy is the input that keeps modern industry, and the AI supply chain, running. When it is disrupted, the impact shows up quickly in inflation expectations, manufacturing confidence, and risk pricing,” it wrote.

“We do expect further turbulence in markets in the week ahead, but we are watching strength in Bitcoin which may prove an early tell for risk appetite turning more broadly.” CFDs on WTI oil three-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThis article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

Bitcoin (BTC +7.27%) has shed more than 45% of its value during the past six months, and that pain is real enough to send crypto investors hunting for a villain. And they've found one, or at least some people think they have: It's Jane Street, a quantitative Wall Street trading company, which is being accused across social media of systematically driving Bitcoin's price lower. The allegations went viral in late February after a federal lawsuit accused the firm of insider trading tied to a major crypto company collapsing in 2022.

Let's untangle what's actually happening and why it probably shouldn't change your investment approach.

Image source: Getty Images.

The case against the scapegoat The core allegation proposed on social media is that Jane Street, acting as a holder and trader of the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT 1.36%) and other spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), has been intentionally dumping its holdings at the U.S. market open around 10 a.m. each day, thereby depressing Bitcoin prices and triggering forced liquidations of leveraged crypto traders.

Proponents of the narrative typically suggest that the purpose of this action is to then buy the coin at a lower price level than what would otherwise be possible, setting the company up for a profit the next day when the process supposedly repeats. Similarly, Jane Street is hypothesized to have had some kind of role in the Oct. 10 crypto flash crash, which is still a sore subject among many crypto investors.

You can probably already tell that there are a few holes in this story, but some circumstantial details still make the theory tempting to endorse.

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Jane Street disclosed having about $790 million in Bitcoin Trust shares in its Q4 2025 filing, adding roughly $276 million during the quarter, so it likely has just enough financial heft to slightly affect Bitcoin's price from time to time. It's also true that Jane Street was sued on Feb. 23 in federal court in Manhattan for alleged insider trading before and during the dramatic collapse of the TerraUSD stablecoin in 2022. And India's securities regulator banned it from local markets in 2025 over alleged index manipulation.

But investment firms like Jane Street make their revenue by trading, which includes selling certain assets whenever they see fit, and that isn't the same as intentional market manipulation. Furthermore, long-term Bitcoin holders sold an estimated 143,000 Bitcoins during the 30-day period ended March 1, pushing the price down, and at the same time, ETF redemptions frequently exerted far more selling pressure than any single company could.

In short, the theory probably isn't something to pay much attention to. The Jane Street narrative is mostly a distraction, and until proven otherwise, it's probably not guilty of what it's being accused of.

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You usually don't need to care who's selling or why So what should investors do with this information? First, take it as a lesson about the importance of not getting shaken out of your investments.

Even granting the worst-case version of the allegation, there's no way for a market manipulator to alter Bitcoin's protocol or damage its core investment thesis. The supply cap of 21 million coins persists, and about 95% of its possible supply has been mined and is in circulation. The next halving in 2028 will make it even scarcer than before, as less Bitcoin will be mined per block, with even less issued with each successive halving roughly every four years. These mechanics are immutable regardless of what any trading business does with its ETF shares, and over the long run, they're major drivers for the asset's price rising because they make it much easier for a broad swath of investors to buy and hold the shares in their investment portfolios.

The current decline, frustrating as it may be, is also fairly common in Bitcoin's history. Past bear markets for the coin brought 70% to 85% declines relative to the all-time highs before recoveries started.

So being patient and buying the dip are better strategies than panic selling or pinning blame on a single trading firm that probably lacks the heft to spin the Bitcoin market. There's simply nothing going on here that would lead someone with a long-term perspective to dump their Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is widely considered a store of value within the broader cryptocurrency landscape. Although it still is highly speculative, XRP could be interesting for those curious about the future of financial systems.

Renewed ETF inflows and surging validator queues signal a shift toward yield-focused, long-term Ethereum strategies.

Market Sentiment:

Bullish Bearish Neutral

Published: March 4, 2026 │ 10:15 AM GMT

Created by Kornelija Poderskytė from DailyCoin

Financial markets are experiencing turbulence following attacks on oil and gas infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, but institutional investors are showing early signs of returning to crypto. 

DailyCoin reported yesterday about renewed capital interest in Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs, which have recorded fresh net inflows since Monday.

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But the new data also points to a growing trend of large investors returning to Ethereum’s validator ecosystem. Instead of selling into the market, major holders are increasingly staking their ETH, signaling a strategic shift toward steady yield generation and long-term positioning.

According to recent data from ValidatorQueue, roughly 3.35 million ETH is currently waiting in the validator entry queue, which one of the largest staking backlogs in recent history.

Source: ValidatorQueueThis represents a sharp rise from approximately 904,000 ETH in early January 2026, highlighting accelerating demand to lock tokens into Ethereum’s proof-of-stake network. 

Under Ethereum’s staking model, validators must deposit 32 ETH to participate and earn rewards, and new validators can only join at a fixed rate, creating a queue that can last weeks or months.

Staking allows corporates and exchanges to earn returns while maintaining full exposure to ETH’s price movements. This approach mirrors traditional capital markets, where yield-bearing assets often take priority over speculative trading, reflecting a more income-focused allocation strategy.

Ethereum Network ActivityEthereum was trading for $2,004 at the time of writing after climbing nearly 0.5% over the past 24 hours, as bulls and bears test the key level, where liquidity, stop orders, and leverage have recently clustered.

The second-largest crypto asset has now gained nearly 10% since Saturday, following a sudden surge on Sunday and Monday morning.

On-chain metrics indicate steady network growth, with over 837,000 active addresses per day, according to Santiment, underscoring steady participation from both new and existing users.

Why This MattersA long ETH validator queue shows that more investors are locking up their tokens, which typically boosts network security. It also limits available supply, which could help support the asset price.

Dig into DailyCoin’s hottest crypto scoops right now:
1.6T SHIB Coins Left Exchanges: What’s Cracking Here?
XRP Analyst Ties ETF Demand and Metal Selloff to Next Leg Higher

People Also Ask:What is Ethereum staking?

Staking is the process of locking up ETH in Ethereum’s proof-of-stake network to support security and validate transactions in exchange for rewards.

How does staking affect the ETH price?

By locking ETH in validators, staking reduces the circulating supply, which can support price stability if demand remains strong.

How does network activity relate to Ethereum’s health?

Metrics like active addresses and new address creation indicate user engagement, adoption trends, and the overall vitality of the Ethereum network.

DailyCoin's Vibe Check: Which way are you leaning towards after reading this article?

Market Sentiment

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This article is for information purposes only and should not be considered trading or investment advice. Nothing herein shall be construed as financial, legal, or tax advice. Trading forex, cryptocurrencies, and CFDs pose a considerable risk of loss.

Bitcoin price pushed back above $71,000 on Wednesday, defying geopolitical jitters tied to escalating Middle East tensions and a spike in global oil prices, as on-chain data suggests selling pressure may be drying up.

Summary

Bitcoin rose above $71,000, gaining over 5% and challenging the upper end of its recent consolidation range. Exchange inflows dropped to 28,235 BTC, a level historically linked to reduced selling pressure and potential accumulation phases. Technical indicators such as Balance of Power turning positive suggest short-term buyer momentum is strengthening. Bitcoin seller exhaustion? Exchange flows fall to near-cycle lows According to analysis from CryptoQuant, the recent military intervention in Iran sent shockwaves through energy markets, with WTI crude jumping above $75 and Brent topping $82 after successive 6% gains. While the broader macro backdrop remains fragile and the bear market structure technically intact, Bitcoin has shown notable relative strength.

At the time of the CryptoQuant assessment, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading near $68,637 and approaching what analysts describe as an accumulation zone. A key metric backing that thesis is Exchange Inflow, the amount of BTC transferred to exchanges, often a precursor to selling.

Historically, readings below 40,000 BTC have coincided with weak selling pressure and market bottoms, while levels above 90,000 BTC have marked cycle tops.

On March 3, 2026, exchange inflows registered just 28,235 BTC, dramatically lower than prior cycle highs that ranged between 97,587 BTC and 134,619 BTC. The subdued inflow suggests sellers may be exhausted, even as global instability persists.

Bitcoin price action and key levels Based on the attached daily chart, Bitcoin is currently trading around $71,795 after posting a strong green daily candle, up more than 5%. The move follows a sharp correction from late January highs near $95,000, with price finding a local bottom in early February around the $63,000–$65,000 region.

Bitcoin price analysis | Source: Crypto.News Since that capitulation-style drop, Bitcoin has been consolidating in a broad range between roughly $65,000 support and $72,000 resistance. The recent breakout attempt above $71,000 puts price back near the upper boundary of this consolidation band.

Immediate resistance now sits around $72,000–$73,000, followed by the heavier supply zone near $78,000–$80,000, where prior breakdown momentum accelerated. On the downside, first support lies at $68,000, with stronger structural support near $65,000.

A loss of that level would reopen the path toward the February low near $63,000.

Volume has picked up modestly on the recent rebound, though it remains below the spike seen during the early February sell-off.

Meanwhile, the Balance of Power indicator has turned positive, currently reading around 0.77, signaling buyers are gaining short-term control after weeks of sideways churn.

While the broader macro picture remains uncertain, Bitcoin’s ability to rally through geopolitical stress, combined with low exchange inflows, suggests the market may be transitioning from distribution to early-stage accumulation.

A decisive daily close above the $72,000–$73,000 zone would strengthen the case for a broader recovery attempt.

Bitcoin altcoinBitcoin looks back into the zone, $70k, the strongest physiological zone has been crossed. Despite the fearful global equity now, falling metal prices like silver, the capital seems to be driven towards the Cryptocurrency Bitcoin. 

As seen yesterday, Bitcoin was already registering positive funding rates, positive inflow of all 12 active Bitcoin spot ETFs, and the signs were clear. Although the USD is strengthening has not been so resilient to the bitcoin price today. 

BTC/USDT in light of returning to $90K At the time of writing, Bitcoin price is at $71,169, trading near the upper range of its consolidation channel, and is now showing signs of a change of Character. 

BTC/USDT in light of returning to $90K
So now, $76,000 is the resistance zone to cross for the bitcoin price; this is where the EMA50 is. This price action will add pressure to its rally towards $90,000.

Invalidation would occur if BTC price behaves bearish in $70,000 to $76,000, causing its rally back to its wartime price figures.

Ethereum Jumps Above $2K, Altcoins follow. Just after bitcoin started behaving bullish since yesterday’s trading sessions, top altcoins followed the trend. 

Ethereum price jumps above $2000 after trading below this level for the whole week. The second-largest cryptocurrency with a market cap of $250 billion has crossed above its 7-day Simple Moving Average (SMA7) of $1,989.48 and 7-day Exponential Moving Average of $1,976.66. 

If the market persists and the Eth price holds this support of $2000, it could test the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance at $2,240.

Altcoin Follow The Boss, Bitcoin With Bitcoin changing momemtum altcoins other than Ethereum registered a positive 24-hour rally. XDC coin skyrocketed to its high in the last 2 weeks, still rebounding after a correction towards $0.0364.  

Morpho coin is now at $1.96, continuing its rally. Soaring to 67% growth in a month, and 3.5% in the last 24 hours. This has come after the increase in network usage, a spike in TVL of 2.97, and ETH tokens from the previous year’s low of 976K ETH. 

BNB passes $650 with strong signs of moving out of its lower consolidation zone. XRP, Solana, Litecoin, Hedera, Uniswap, Polkadot, Matelm Bittensor TAO, and Near protocol.

All the Top 10 cryptocurrencies have registered an average growth of 5% and still hold a bullish sentiment in the short and mid term.

Trust with CoinPedia:CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017. All content is created by our expert panel of analysts and journalists, following strict Editorial Guidelines based on E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness). Every article is fact-checked against reputable sources to ensure accuracy, transparency, and reliability. Our review policy guarantees unbiased evaluations when recommending exchanges, platforms, or tools. We strive to provide timely updates about everything crypto & blockchain, right from startups to industry majors.

Investment Disclaimer:All opinions and insights shared represent the author's own views on current market conditions. Please do your own research before making investment decisions. Neither the writer nor the publication assumes responsibility for your financial choices.

Sponsored and Advertisements:Sponsored content and affiliate links may appear on our site. Advertisements are marked clearly, and our editorial content remains entirely independent from our ad partners.

Stocks are falling. Silver is sliding. Oil is climbing on war fears. And Bitcoin just hit $71,490. That’s not how risk assets are supposed to behave. But here we are.

Since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran, Bitcoin dropped near $63,000. It has since recovered close to 10%. While Asian equities sold off and oil prices pushed higher on supply route fears, Bitcoin seems to be going the other direction.

Van de Poppe Has a TheoryAnalyst Michaël van de Poppe posted what might be the most-watched crypto call this week:

“Constantly higher lows are made on the markets, therefore upside on Bitcoin. The upside on commodities is done. The bear phase for Bitcoin is also done. Good times are ahead.”

That’s a big statement after five straight months of losses, which is the worst streak Bitcoin has seen since the 2018 bear market.

Why Is Bitcoin Going Up?Market maker Enflux told CoinDesk: “The market is pricing in neither a catastrophe nor a solution. As the escalation did not immediately lead to a broader regional war, short-covering began.”

In other words, bearish traders closed their positions when the worst-case scenario didn’t materialize.

Bitcoin spot ETFs had shed $8.9 billion during the correction – the largest drawdown since their launch. In the past five trading days, $1.45 billion has come back. BlackRock’s IBIT, which led the selloff, is now leading the recovery with $882 million in weekly inflows.

Read More: Bitcoin ETF Flows Flip Green After Record $8.9B Drawdown: Why Is the Money Coming Back?

Bloomberg’s ETF analyst Eric Balchunas called it: “Breadth and depth. This after a 50% drawdown and most underwater. Even I’m impressed.”

CryptoQuant’s data adds another layer: exchange deposit volumes are low, which signals that sell-side pressure is exhausting itself.

Key Levels to Watch Bitcoin is pushing toward the $74,373-$76,341 zone, where the EMA50 and SMA50 converge on the daily chart. This band has rejected price repeatedly since October 2025.

If it breaks above it, analysts see a path to $90,000. If it fails here, a return below $60,000 remains on the table.

The RSI has climbed to 54, just above neutral. The overall technical picture now reads Buy. But the SMA50 at $76,341 still signals Sell.

This recovery is gaining structure and hasn’t cleared the wall yet.

Altcoins Are Moving TooEthereum is up 6.77% on the day, Solana 7.88%, XRP 5.26%. The altcoin season index reads 32 out of 100 – deep in Bitcoin Season territory.

Polymarket gives a 74% probability that Bitcoin reaches $75,000 this month, which is the exact resistance zone the technicals are pointing to.

Whether this is the start of something or just another relief rally before pain, the next two weeks on Bitcoin’s chart will have the answer.

Trust with CoinPedia:CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017. All content is created by our expert panel of analysts and journalists, following strict Editorial Guidelines based on E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness). Every article is fact-checked against reputable sources to ensure accuracy, transparency, and reliability. Our review policy guarantees unbiased evaluations when recommending exchanges, platforms, or tools. We strive to provide timely updates about everything crypto & blockchain, right from startups to industry majors.

Investment Disclaimer:All opinions and insights shared represent the author's own views on current market conditions. Please do your own research before making investment decisions. Neither the writer nor the publication assumes responsibility for your financial choices.

Sponsored and Advertisements:Sponsored content and affiliate links may appear on our site. Advertisements are marked clearly, and our editorial content remains entirely independent from our ad partners.

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Why is crypto up today? Crypto progenitor Bitcoin (BTC) just staged a massive V-shaped recovery, reclaiming $71,000 hours after global headlines screamed war.

The weekend dip to $63,000, triggered by intensifying conflict involving Israel, the U.S., and Iran, looked like the start of a risk-off collapse.

It wasn’t. Instead, the market absorbed the shock, flushed the leverage, and kept buying. While traditional markets panicked over blocked supply lines in the Strait of Hormuz, crypto participants saw a discount. That matters. It signals a shift in market resilience that bears did not account for.

Discover: Crypto’s best pre-launch token sales.

Bitcoin Price Action: Institutional Resilience Meets Geopolitical RiskThe drop was sharp, but the recovery was cleaner. When news of the escalation broke, leverage got flushed immediately.

On-chain analysis indicates supply exhaustion from sellers at the $63,000 mark. Exchange flows remained neutral to negative, suggesting coins were moving to cold storage rather than flooding order books. Regional data supports this. Iranian exchange outflows suggest local capital flight seeking safety in digital assets, while global desks treated the geopolitical risk as a liquidity event to fill bids.

Tagus Capital noted in a recent newsletter that Bitcoin is exhibiting “defensive characteristics” despite its high-beta reputation. Where gold retreated after a brief spike, Bitcoin stabilized and reversed. The smart money absorbed the selling pressure. No capitulation.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: $71,000 Reclaimed, Is $75,000 Next?The chart is painting a clear invalidation of the bear case. Reclaiming $71,000 changes the market structure entirely. The $65,700 level has now flipped from previous resistance to a fortress of support. The V-shape recovery confirms demand at lower levels was stronger than the panic.

Bitcoin is entering a v-shape recovery. Source: TradingViewIf Bitcoin holds above $70,500, the path to $74,000 opens up quickly. Clear that cleanly, and $75,000 is the next logical target. However, if the price loses $69,000, we likely re-test the weekend lows.

The current setup aligns with the VanEck macro bottom thesis, suggesting the $60,000-$63,000 zone was the final shakeout before the next leg up. Momentum indicators on the 4-hour chart have reset, giving bulls room to run.

Discover: The hottest new crypto around.

Market Resilience: Why Crypto Outperformed Gold and OilTraditional safe havens reacted predictably to the conflict. Oil jumped 7% on supply fears. Gold added 2%. Yet, Bitcoin’s 12% bounce from the $63,000 lows outpaced them both. This decouples Bitcoin from the “risk-on only” narrative.

While altcoins like Cardano and Dogecoin are lagging behind Bitcoin, the broader crypto price prediction landscape is turning bullish.

Billionaire Ray Dalio recently dismissed Bitcoin’s safe-haven status, yet the market ignored him. Bitcoin gained despite the war escalating. Institutional desks used the weekend gap, when traditional equity markets were closed, to bid on the asset that never sleeps.

In a notable shift in university investing, the Harvard ethereum allocation is signaling how large institutions may rebalance their digital asset exposure going into 2026.

Summary

Harvard trims Bitcoin ETF, boosts Ethereum exposureInside Harvard’s Q4 2025 crypto portfolio shiftWhat Harvard’s rotation means for institutions and retail investorsWhy Ethereum is gaining institutional momentum into 2026Bitcoin and Ethereum market levels after Q4 swingsHarvard’s role in the evolving crypto endowment landscape Harvard trims Bitcoin ETF, boosts Ethereum exposure Harvard, one of the world’s most prestigious universities, has cut its Bitcoin ETF holdings by roughly $72M and rotated that capital into Ethereum, according to fresh SEC disclosures. The move underscores a growing willingness among major institutions to adjust crypto exposure rather than exit the asset class.

Filings show the university’s $57Bn endowment reduced its stake in BlackRock‘s spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, in Q4 2025, while at the same time initiating a sizeable position in iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA). Moreover, this marks the first time Harvard has reported a dedicated Ethereum ETF position.

“This move plays into the growing sentiment in the market that ETH USD represents a stronger conviction play in 2026, driven by continued network upgrades and consistent institutional adoption from some of the world’s biggest firms,” one market commentary noted. However, the repositioning still leaves Bitcoin as Harvard’s largest single equity holding.

The reshuffle comes as the total crypto market cap climbed 2.6% overnight, returning above $2.4 trillion. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum USD have reclaimed important levels, trading near $69,000 and $2,000, respectively, reinforcing the view that institutional demand remains resilient after Q4 volatility.

Inside Harvard’s Q4 2025 crypto portfolio shift The changes from America’s most prominent university investor were disclosed in an SEC Form 13F filed on February 13, covering the quarter ended December 31, 2025. That filing offers one of the clearest windows into how a top academic endowment is navigating the evolving digital asset landscape.

Harvard Management Company cut its IBIT stake to 5,353,612 shares, valued at $265.8M at year-end prices. That is down from the prior quarter, equating to roughly $72M in net sales based on IBIT’s December 31 close of $49.65. However, even after the trim, the position remains the endowment’s single largest disclosed listed equity holding.

At the same time, the endowment initiated a new 3.87M-share position in ETHA, valued at $86.8M. It is Harvard’s first reported allocation to an Ethereum ETF since US spot ETH products launched in mid-2024, and it suggests growing comfort with regulated vehicles providing exposure to the second-largest crypto asset.

Bitcoin still ranks ahead of large-cap names such as Google, Microsoft, and Amazon within Harvard’s 13F portfolio. That said, the addition of a substantial ETH ETF allocation highlights that the endowment now sees a dual-asset digital strategy, pairing Bitcoin’s macro narrative with Ethereum’s network growth profile.

What Harvard’s rotation means for institutions and retail investors The main takeaway is straightforward: Harvard has reduced its spot Bitcoin ETF exposure and added dedicated Ethereum USD exposure. For many market participants, this confirms that another blue-chip institution is willing to hold and actively manage ETH positions alongside BTC.

Another important angle is diversification within crypto rather than a wholesale move away from one asset. Combined, Harvard’s BTC and ETH ETF exposure now sits at $352.6M, a figure that emphasizes rebalancing instead of risk-off behavior. Moreover, the shift echoes a broader bitcoin ethereum comparison taking place across institutional desks.

The structure of the portfolio also matters. Crypto now represents about 12.8% of Harvard’s reportable US equity holdings, indicating that digital assets have become a material component of the endowment’s strategy. However, the approach remains anchored in regulated, transparent vehicles such as listed ETFs rather than direct spot holdings.

For everyday investors, Harvard’s approach may act as a signal rather than a blueprint. Large endowments typically invest with multi-year horizons, and a rotation of this size suggests confidence in the long-term viability of both assets, even as short-term volatility remains elevated across the market.

Why Ethereum is gaining institutional momentum into 2026 Institutional interest in Ethereum has been building beyond Harvard’s move. Public companies are adding ETH to their treasuries, including firms like BitMine, whose shares recently jumped after the company expanded its Ethereum holdings. That said, many corporates still favor Bitcoin as their first crypto treasury asset.

On-chain data also points to a constructive backdrop. Analysts tracking large addresses report that whale wallets have been accumulating ETH during recent drawdowns, while flows into tokenized real-world assets on Ethereum continue to grow. Moreover, these trends support the narrative of growing eth institutional adoption across traditional finance.

Fidelity, a $5.9 trillion asset manager, recently launched its own stablecoin on the Ethereum network, adding to a growing roster of TradFi products built on the chain. This is one of many examples of traditional firms choosing Ethereum’s infrastructure for payments, tokenization, and settlement use cases.

In the eyes of many strategists, this reflects a broader division of roles: Bitcoin increasingly functions as a macro reserve-style asset, while Ethereum serves as a growth-oriented base layer for decentralized finance and tokenized assets. The Harvard ethereum allocation may therefore be seen as an endorsement of that dual-track thesis.

Bitcoin and Ethereum market levels after Q4 swings The bitcoin price landscape remains volatile but technically defined. Bitcoin is currently trading near $69,300 after a sharp retracement from its $126,000 October 2025 high. The $60,000–$62,000 range continues to act as structural support and has held through recent bouts of selling.

However, a decisive break below that support zone could quickly bring $52,000 into focus for traders. On the upside, the first key resistance sits around $72,000. Reclaiming that level with convincing volume would likely open the door to a push toward $80,000, while failure to do so may keep BTC trading in a broad range.

Ethereum USD is trading just over $2,000 following a roughly 30% correction in Q4. The $1,800 area remains the critical line in the sand for bulls. It has held throughout the recent volatility, and if the market can maintain price action above $2,000, $2,400 becomes a realistic upside target for the next leg higher.

These ethereum price levels are closely watched by institutional and retail investors alike. For allocators, clear support and resistance zones help frame risk-reward decisions as they evaluate products such as ETHA and other spot funds that have seen steady ethereum etf inflows since mid-2024.

Harvard’s role in the evolving crypto endowment landscape Harvard’s latest filing confirms that crypto is not a fringe bet but a core component of a major endowment’s portfolio. With digital assets accounting for 12.8% of reportable US equity holdings and combined BTC and ETH ETF exposure of $352.6M, the university’s actions will likely influence peers evaluating their own harvard endowment crypto strategies.

For now, the key message is measured conviction rather than speculation. Harvard is rebalancing, not exiting, while adding a new layer of exposure to the Ethereum ecosystem. In doing so, the institution is helping define what a mature, diversified crypto allocation can look like for long-term investors.

Alessia Pannone

Graduated in communication sciences, currently student of the master's degree course in publishing and writing. Writer of articles from an SEO perspective, with care for indexing in search engines.