Market Signal Briefing

How Much Longer Until We Consider the Bitcoin Power Law Model Invalid?As the gap between spot bitcoin price and the power law widens, investors are left questioning whether mean reversion is coming or if another cornerstone model is approaching its end. Dec 6, 2025, 3:00 p.m.

Over a long enough time frame, every long term valuation model for bitcoin has eventually been broken, yet the one that has maintained the strongest narrative this cycle has been the power law model.

Historically, in previous cycles, bitcoin has tended to overshoot this model during bull markets and fall below it during bear markets, but in the current cycle the price has largely remained close to the model's trajectory.

STORY CONTINUES BELOW

The bitcoin power law framework provides a mathematical viewpoint of long term price trends, revealing that bitcoin’s historical performance follows a power law distribution on a log scale. This implies a relationship between time and price. However, the model relies on historical observations.

In theory it is a backward looking model that does not guarantee future predictive accuracy, particularly given the unpredictable nature of financial markets. The model is useful for understanding long term structural trends.

Below $90,000, bitcoin currently trades at a steep discount to the model. The power law value sits near $118,000 which places the spot price roughly 32% beneath the model. This is the largest deviation since the yen carry trade unwind back in august 2024, which produced a 35% deviation from the trend line and took three months to recover.

From a broader perspective, bitcoin has spent most of this cycle tracking close to the model, whereas in previous cycles it deviated far more aggressively both above and below it.

In the last cycle, the most prominent model was the stock to flow framework created by the anonymous analyst Plan B, which assumes that scarcity directly drives value. The model has been invalid since January 2021, and according to current Glassnode data it would imply a price of roughly $1.3 million per bitcoin today.

The key question now is whether bitcoin mean reverts back toward the power law trend or breaks lower and challenges the validity of yet another long standing model.

Stock To Flow (Glassnode)

AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.

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Shares in the company fell more than 50% this week as the merger approval went forward.

What to know:

Anthony Pompliano-led ProCap BTC closed its SPAC merger on Friday.This year's crop of quickly-formed bitcoin treasury companies have plunged in value, and BRR fell more than 50% this week as its merger went forward.Pompliano attempted to address investor concerns over management and board compensation.Read full story

Ethereum shows relative strength as market dynamics shift.

Cover image via U.Today

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

The weekend has started with a market correction, according to CoinMarketCap.

Top coins by CoinMarketCapDOGE/USDThe rate of DOGE has declined by 3.35% over the last 24 hours.

Image by TradingViewOn the hourly chart, the price of DOGE is in the middle of the local channel between the support of $0.1383 and the resistance of $0.1403. As neither side is dominating, there are low chances to see sharp moves by tomorrow.

Image by TradingViewOn the bigger time frame, the situation is more bearish. The rate of the meme coin is closer to the support than to the resistance.

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If sellers' pressure continues, one can expect a test of the $0.1332 level by the end of the week.

Image by TradingViewFrom the midterm point of view, the picture is similar. If the weekly candle closes near its bar low, the accumulated energy might be enough for a further downward move to the $0.10-$0.12 range.

DOGE is trading at $0.1395 at press time.

On Friday, as bitcoin slipped beneath the $90,000 threshold, a long-dormant 2012 wallet stirred back to life, dispatching 1,000 BTC valued at $89.4 million at today's rates — its first activity in 13 years and 49 days.

Company: Barrick Mining (B)Business: Barrick Mining, formerly Barrick Gold Corporation, is a gold and copper producer, which is engaged in the production and sale of gold and copper, as well as related activities, such as exploration and mine development. It has ownership interests in producing gold mines in Argentina, Canada, Cote d'Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Dominican Republic, Papua New Guinea, Tanzania and the United States. Its copper mines are in Zambia, Chile and Saudi Arabia. Its operations include Nevada Gold Mines, Bulyanhulu, Hemlo, Jabal Sayid, Kibali, Loulo-Gounkoto, Lumwana, North Mara, Porgera, Pueblo Viejo, Tongon, Veladero and Zaldivar. Its Bulyanhulu operation is located in northwest Tanzania, over 55 kilometers south of Lake Victoria and 150 km southwest of the city of Mwanza. The Jabal Sayid copper operation is located 350 km northeast of Jeddah in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The Lumwana copper mine is a conventional open pit operation.

Stock Market Value: $69.16 billion ($40.38 per share)

Stock Chart IconStock chart icon

Barrick Mining shares year to date

Activist: Elliott Investment ManagementOwnership: n/a

Average Cost: n/a

Activist Commentary: Elliott is a multistrategy investment firm that manages about $76.1 billion in assets (as of June 30, 2025) and is one of the oldest firms of its type under continuous management. Known for its extensive due diligence and resources, Elliott regularly follows companies for years before making an investment. Elliott is the most active of activist investors, engaging with companies across industries and multiple geographies.

What's happeningOn Nov. 18, Elliott announced a position in Barrick Mining and expressed its interest in seeing a potential separation of North American assets from its mines in riskier regions across Asia and Africa. Most recently, on Dec. 1, Barrick announced that the board has authorized the company to explore a potential separation of the North American assets.

Behind the scenesBarrick Mining is a Toronto-based global mining company focused predominantly on gold, operating 14 gold mines, as well as three additional cooper mines. The core of this business is its North America Gold assets, which consists of some of the highest quality deposits in the world, specifically Nevada Gold Mines, a joint venture with Newmont in which Barrick owns 61.5% and serves as its operator. The company also operates gold mines in Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and Asia. Its copper portfolio is centered around Africa and the Middle East, including Reko Diq, a new copper development project in Pakistan.

With the recent bull market for gold, Barrick's stock has more than doubled over the past six months. Despite this, Barrick continues to trade at 0.9 times its price to net asset value ratio, a significant discount to North American peers, who trade well above 1x, with best-in-class peers like Agnico Eagle trading at approximately 1.5x.

Investors buy gold companies primarily for gold price exposure, and from there prefer the companies with the best management teams that operate the companies most efficiently to best isolate the value of the commodity. Barrick has not been a top operator amongst its peers and, as a result, they abruptly parted ways with their CEO in September and replaced him with Mark Hill, the former COO, as interim CEO.

An interim CEO creates two very valuable opportunities for an activist in a company like Barrick. First and most importantly, they get to have a voice in who the new CEO will be regardless of whether they settle with the company for a board seat or just remain an outspoken shareholder. While they may not always be in the room when the discussions are had or the decision is made, we know of no CEO who would take a job at a company with an activist like Elliott engaging unless they knew that Elliott approved of the hiring.

Second, when a company has an interim CEO, it is an advantageous time to explore strategic alternatives, and a breakup of this company has always been the elephant in the room.

Barrick's North American operations have been sullied by the company's exposure to higher-risk regions and separating the two would go a long way to close the valuation gap between Barrick and Agnico Eagle.

The value proposition for a breakup is clear and even something management has discussed. In a presentation released in May, management demonstrated that applying a peer-like multiple to Barrick's North American assets could unlock as much as 49% of unrealized value. Since then, the price of gold has appreciated by over 70% but the company's stock has appreciated by more than 100%, so much of that gain has been realized but there is still some value to be realized from a breakup.

Elliott has a history of taking board seats at companies not for activist's sake, but only when they feel that the director they are putting on the board could genuinely add value for shareholders. In this case, the breakup of the company is something that is being seriously considered by the board, and Elliott, just by its existence, is likely to have at least negative approval power over the new CEO.

Moreover, Elliott does not act impetuously in its activism. They have likely had a position in Barrick for many months at this point and have already received a great return from the company's 100% appreciation in the past six months. We would not expect them to escalate their activism here unless either the board goes down a path they didn't expect and don't agree with, or it is at the company's invitation to join the board to assist with the tasks ahead.

Ken Squire is the founder and president of 13D Monitor, an institutional research service on shareholder activism, and the founder and portfolio manager of the 13D Activist Fund, a mutual fund that invests in a portfolio of activist investments.

Constellation Energy (NASDAQ: CEG) and Vistra Energy (NYSE: VST) reported Q3 earnings this month, exposing two fundamentally different approaches to power generation.

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SummaryIncyte Corporation's rapid non-Jakafi portfolio growth and strong operating leverage look decent amid still-cheap valuation, supporting attractive risk-reward over the coming quarters ahead.
Q3 revenue beat consensus by 9%, with Jakafi still 58% of sales as rapidly expanding Opzelura, Niktimvo, Monjuvi, and Zynyz materially de-risking concentration on Jakafi.
Management guides for flat OpEx and rising revenues into FY2025, supporting sustained margin expansion and robust EPS growth potential post-2029.
Valuation remains attractive at under 15x forward P/E, with technical and fundamental momentum likely to persist if execution continues.
My calculations show an upside of about 32%. INCY is a "Buy"
Jonathan Kitchen/DigitalVision via Getty Images

My "Buy" Thesis On Incyte Stock Incyte Corporation (INCY) has a market cap of ~$20 billion, although it's not a widely known stock to the general public (or at least I wasn't familiar with it before

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in INCY, over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AAPL, AMZN either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

The retail giant has all the tools needed to be a market-beater over the next half-decade.

Retail has consistently been an industry you can count on long term, but it has always had its ups and downs along the way. And regardless of the state of the retail industry, one company has been a key force in it over the past six decades: Walmart (WMT +0.23%).

Walmart has been on an impressive run over the past five years, up 126% in that span, outperforming the S&P 500's 86% gain. The traditionally low-cost brick-and-mortar giant has been adjusting to new consumer preferences, while also staying true to its core business model.

The combination of the two has worked in its favor and should spark optimism about its future. Nobody can predict how a stock will perform, but Walmart's business is surely headed in the right direction and should be even more thorough five years from now.

Image source: Walmart.

Going beyond brick-and-mortar
There aren't many places in the U.S. where you can't get to a Walmart within a reasonable amount of time. It built its brand on being the low-cost retailer that served even some of the more rural parts of the country.

However, Walmart's business took a major hit with the emergence of Amazon and its e-commerce business. Consumers no longer needed to leave their houses for most items because Amazon would deliver them within two days, hassle-free. Now, Walmart is making a push to grab a slice of the e-commerce pie.

Walmart+, which is similar to Amazon's Prime, is shaping up to be a success. It has many perks, but a key selling point is its fast delivery. Walmart says it can offer same-day delivery in many cases (using its stores as de facto fulfillment centers) and next-day and two-day shipping in virtually every other situation.

Consumers flocked to Amazon for its convenience, and now Walmart is providing that same convenience. And in many cases, Walmart is even more convenient because consumers can pick up orders in a physical store faster or handle in-person returns.

Five years from now, I expect Walmart's e-commerce business to drive a lot of Walmart's retail growth.

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Embracing a fast-growing profit machine
Retail sales aside, Walmart is leaning into what few companies can compete with: its data. Walmart has decades of data at its disposal that it has been using to build an impressive advertising business with Walmart Connect. Walmart Connect enables advertisers to reach consumers when they're searching and making purchases.

With Walmart's scale, reach, and data, it has a great value proposition that most smaller retailers or other digital platforms can't match.

In its fiscal third quarter (ended Oct. 31), Walmart's revenue increased 5.8% to $179.5 billion, but its advertising business grew much faster. Global advertising was up 53% (including VIZIO, which it acquired in December 2024), and Walmart Connect in the U.S. was up 33%. Internationally, advertising increased by 34%.

WMT Revenue (Quarterly) data by YCharts

Digital advertising is a high-margin business, especially compared to retail, because once the platform is built, there's virtually no cost to each additional ad placed. Over the next five years, I expect advertising to be a significant portion of Walmart's operating income (profit from core operations).

Is Walmart a buy right now?
The very short answer to whether or not Walmart is a buy right now is "yes." It has a reliable dividend (52 years of consecutive increases, making it a Dividend King); it caters to customers of all budgets, helping it sustain through economic ups and downs; it is adjusting its business to adapt to the times; and it has high-growth areas that are in their earliest stages.

One thing potential investors should keep in mind, though, is Walmart's current valuation. Trading at 43 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, Walmart's stock is far from cheap. It's definitely more expensive than almost all of its direct competitors.

WMT PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts

A high valuation doesn't take away from Walmart's standing as a buy in my eyes; it just means investors should know that Walmart is now seemingly being priced as a retail/technology hybrid and not just your regular ol' retail store. That said, if I had to bet, I would think Walmart continues to outperform the market over the next five years.

This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.

The S&P 500 large-cap stock index undergoes quarterly rebalances to reflect evolving market conditions. Managed by S&P Dow Jones Indices, the process involves evaluating companies based on criteria like market capitalization, liquidity, profitability, and sector representation. Additions and deletions ensure the index captures the top 500 performers, with changes announced after market close and effective before trading opens on the specified date. 

This week, the committee revealed its latest adjustments that will take effect on Dec. 22. Among the moves, Carvana (NYSE:CVNA) will be one of three companies joining the index, an inclusion that caps a stunning turnaround: its shares have nearly doubled in 2025 and surged more than 5,000% over the past three years, pushing its market cap to nearly $87 billion. 

This transformation positions the online used car dealer as a mainstream heavyweight, a remarkable shift from its roots as a niche disruptor.

From Penny Stock Peril to Index Darling
Carvana’s trajectory has been wild. In late 2022, amid a post-pandemic inventory glut and rising interest rates, the online used-car retailer teetered on bankruptcy. Shares plummeted below $4 — penny stock territory — erasing billions in market value and prompting debt restructuring talks. Three years later, Carvana has overhauled its operations and showcases a leaner model.

Key to its rebound have been aggressive cost cuts, including workforce reductions and facility consolidations, which flipped adjusted EBITDA positive by mid-2023. Vehicle sales hit record highs in 2025, up 43% year-over-year, thanks to an enhanced e-commerce platform and next-day delivery in over 300 markets. 

Partnerships, like offloading used rentals from Hertz (NASDAQ:HTZ), bolstered its inventory flow, while analysts credit a “better business model” than peers like CarMax (NYSE:KMX). Wedbush Securities just upgraded Carvana’s stock from neutral to outperform and raised its price target to $400 per share on improved profitability margins.

It’s true Carvana rode the meme stock wave in 2021 — and continues to do so — that at various times has created a retail buying frenzy, but index inclusion demands more substance. S&P criteria emphasize sustained earnings and liquidity; Carvana’s third-quarter net income of $263 million (up 78% from last year) on $5.6 billion in revenue met the bar, proving the meme hype evolved into real growth.

What Happens Next?
S&P 500 inclusion typically triggers the “index effect,” where mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) must buy shares to mirror the benchmark. Funds like Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:VOO) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) alone hold over $1 trillion in assets. This passive influx often spikes prices 5% to 10% after addition.

Historically, though, the tailwind fades fast. Studies show additions average 7.5% gains in the announcement week but deliver modest long-term outperformance — around 2% to 3% excess returns in the first year, according to S&P Dow Jones data from 2010 to 2020. Some, like CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD) in 2024, sustained momentum due to fundamentals, while others reverted to market norms. 

For Carvana, the buying pressure could add $5 billion to $10 billion in liquidity, but sustained gains hinge on execution, not just ETF flows.

Key Takeaway
Inclusion offers Carvana a credibility halo and fresh capital, but it does face risks. Its subprime loan portfolio — key to financing sales — is growing amid record late payments, which hit 6.65% in Q3, according to Fitch Ratings. Delinquencies could spike with economic headwinds, eroding Carvana’s margins. 

Its ties to Cerberus Capital Management and DriveTime Automotive — the private, used-car dealership Carvana’s uses as a loan and warranty processor — remain opaque. Carvana sold $800 million in loans in 2024 to a suspected Cerberus-linked trust, undisclosed as related-party despite director Dan Quayle’s role there. DriveTime is run by CEO Ernie Garcia III’s father, a relationship that has, former insiders allege, inflated Carvana’s revenue through “generous” reimbursements. 

Additional pressure comes from insiders — including Garcia — dumping $18 million in shares in November 2025 alone. There haven’t been any stock purchases in years. 

I’ve been wrong on Carvana’s trajectory for a while as the stock defied my crash predictions and surged past my skepticism. That’s why I avoid shorting: markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, as economist John Maynard Keynes quipped. Yet reckonings do finally come. 

Entry into the S&P 500 might inflate the bubble, but mounting defaults, hidden deals, heavy debt, and  insider sales signal cracks in the foundation. Investors would be wise to tread carefully, using any upside momentum from the index addition as an opportunity to take profits.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SES either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Bragar Eagel & Squire, P.C. Litigation Partner Brandon Walker Encourages Investors Who Suffered Losses In Blue Owl (OWL) To Contact Him Directly To Discuss Their Options

If you purchased or acquired Blue Owl securities between February 6, 2025 and November 16, 2025 and would like to discuss your legal rights, call Bragar Eagel & Squire partner Brandon Walker or Melissa Forunato directly at (212) 355-4648.

Click here to participate in the action.

NEW YORK, Dec. 06, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) --

What’s Happening?

Bragar Eagel & Squire, P.C., a nationally recognized stockholder rights law firm, announces that a class action lawsuit has been filed against Blue Owl Capital, Inc. (“Blue Owl” or the “Company”) (NYSE:OWL) in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York on behalf of all persons and entities who purchased or otherwise acquired Blue Owl securities between February 6, 2025 and November 16, 2025, both dates inclusive (the “Class Period”). Investors have until February 2, 2026 to apply to the Court to be appointed as lead plaintiff in the lawsuit.
What are the Allegation Details?

The Complaint alleges that throughout the Class Period, Defendants made materially false and/or misleading statements, as well as failed to disclose material adverse facts about the Company’s business, operations, and prospects. Specifically, the Complaint alleges that Defendants failed to disclose to investors: (1) that Blue Owl was experiencing a meaningful pressure on its asset base from BDC redemptions; (2) that, as a result, the Company was facing undisclosed liquidity issues; (3) that, as a result, the Company would be likely to limit or halt redemptions of certain BDCs; and (4) that, as a result of the foregoing, Defendants’ positive statements about the Company’s business, operations, and prospects were materially misleading and/or lacked a reasonable basis.
What are the Next Steps?

If you purchased or otherwise acquired Blue Owl shares and suffered a loss, are a long-term stockholder, have information, would like to learn more about these claims, or have any questions concerning this announcement or your rights or interests with respect to these matters, please contact Brandon Walker or Melissa Fortunato by email at [email protected], telephone at (212) 355-4648, or by filling out this contact form. There is no cost or obligation to you.
About Bragar Eagel & Squire, P.C.:

Bragar Eagel & Squire, P.C. is a nationally recognized law firm with offices in New York, South Carolina, and California. The firm represents individual and institutional investors in securities, derivative, and commercial litigation as well as individuals in consumer protection and data privacy litigation. The firm has a nationwide practice and routinely handles cases in both federal and state courts. For more information about the firm, please visit www.bespc.com.  Attorney advertising.  Prior results do not guarantee similar outcomes.
Follow us for updates on LinkedIn, X, and Facebook, and keep up with other news by following Brandon Walker, Esq. on LinkedIn and X.

Contact Information:

Bragar Eagel & Squire, P.C.
Brandon Walker, Esq.
Melissa Fortunato, Esq.
(212) 355-4648
[email protected]
www.bespc.com

OSAKA, Japan & WALTHAM, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Deciphera Pharmaceuticals, a member of Ono Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (Headquarters: Osaka, Japan; President and COO: Toichi Takino; “Ono”), today announced the oral presentation of positive results from the Phase 2a IMPRSSION study of sapablursen in patients with polycythemia vera (PV) at the 67th American Society of Hematology (ASH) Annual Meeting, taking place December 6-9, 2025, in Orlando, FL. The results were presented by Ionis Pharmaceuticals.

As of early December 2025, Bitcoin’s market is experiencing a period of unusual stillness, leaving investors and analysts speculating about the cryptocurrency’s next move. This quiet phase comes at a time when large Bitcoin holders, known as whales, seem to be adopting a wait-and-see approach, potentially signaling significant price shifts in the near future. Historically, the actions of these whales often precede major market trends, thus their current inactivity has become a focal point for market watchers.

The lack of substantial movement in Bitcoin’s price is particularly noteworthy in a year that has seen the digital currency reach impressive highs. Earlier in 2025, Bitcoin surged past several psychological price barriers, driven by increasing institutional adoption and regulatory advancements in key economies like the United States and the European Union. These developments were largely seen as legitimizing cryptocurrency investments, attracting both traditional finance institutions and retail investors who were previously skeptical.

Bitcoin’s price has hovered around $84,000 recently, a figure that, while impressive, raises questions about sustainability. Analysts are concerned that this stability might be the calm before a storm, with some predicting a possible correction if Bitcoin fails to break new ground. The critical price point some are watching is $86,500, a level that, if breached, could either propel Bitcoin into a new growth phase or lead to a significant downturn.

This period of calm can be linked to several underlying factors. For one, regulatory developments around the world have introduced both opportunities and uncertainties. While countries like El Salvador continue to embrace Bitcoin, others have implemented rigorous regulatory measures to curb its use, citing concerns over financial stability and the potential for money laundering. For instance, China’s crackdown on cryptocurrency mining and transactions earlier this year caused significant upheavals in the market, which are still reverberating.

Moreover, the macroeconomic environment is contributing to the cautious sentiment among investors. With global inflation rates rising and central banks considering interest rate hikes, the landscape for high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies is becoming more complex. Investors are pondering the impact of potential monetary tightening, which could make digital currencies less attractive compared to interest-bearing securities.

While Bitcoin’s market capitalization remains robust, exceeding $1.5 trillion, the concentration of wealth in the hands of a few large holders continues to pose risks. The top 10% of Bitcoin addresses control a disproportionate share of the total supply, and any significant liquidation from these players could lead to abrupt price fluctuations. This risk underscores the importance of monitoring whale activity, which has historically been a reliable indicator of upcoming market shifts.

Despite the current stagnation, Bitcoin’s underlying technology and its potential for future applications continue to draw interest. Blockchain, the technology behind Bitcoin, has seen increasing adoption across industries, from supply chain management to financial services, offering new efficiencies and security features. This technological promise provides a fundamental value that supports Bitcoin’s market position, even during periods of price uncertainty.

However, it’s important to consider the counterpoint that Bitcoin’s volatility and speculative nature can deter long-term investment. While many see it as a hedge against inflation and a store of value, others caution that its market dynamics are too unpredictable for conservative investors. Additionally, the environmental impact of Bitcoin mining remains a contentious issue, with critics arguing that its energy consumption is unsustainable in an era focused on reducing carbon footprints.

Looking internationally, Bitcoin’s trajectory may also be influenced by developments in other major economies. The European Central Bank’s ongoing efforts to create a digital euro could reshape the competitive landscape for cryptocurrencies in Europe. Similarly, the United States’ exploration of a digital dollar reflects a growing interest in digital currencies as major financial players assess their potential impact on monetary policy and economic stability.

In conclusion, Bitcoin’s current phase of relative calm leaves the market at a crossroads. Whether it will break through the $86,500 level or face a downturn remains uncertain, with whale activity and regulatory developments poised to play critical roles. Investors and analysts alike are keeping a close eye on these factors, aware that even a small catalyst could trigger significant changes in Bitcoin’s price dynamics.

Ultimately, Bitcoin’s future will depend on its ability to navigate regulatory landscapes, respond to macroeconomic pressures, and maintain its appeal in the face of technological and environmental challenges. As the world of cryptocurrencies continues to evolve, the coming months will likely provide crucial insights into Bitcoin’s long-term viability as both an investment vehicle and a transformative technology.

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Bitcoin currently sits at $89,618, with a market capitalization of $1.78 trillion and a 24-hour trading volume of $45.76 billion. Over the past day, its price has oscillated within a narrow band from $88,420 to $91,290—suggesting hesitation among both bulls and bears.

It has been a few weeks since the first XRP ETF debuted in the US - here's how it's going.

After months and months of building anticipation and online speculation, the second-largest altcoin joined the two market leaders in having its own exchange-traded funds tracking its performance on November 13.

Here’s how XRP compares in terms of inflows and price movements in its first weeks against BTC and ETH.

Bitcoin ETF Debut and Price Moves
Following a decade of SEC rejections and delays at best, the US regulator finally greenlighted a bunch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024. The launch date was set on January 10, and, somewhat expectedly, the underlying asset’s price tumbled immediately in a classic sell-the-news event.

BTC had risen to $48,000 at the time, but quickly dipped below $40,000. However, that short-term correction couldn’t keep the asset from rising in the following weeks. In fact, Bitcoin had charted a new all-time high within two months of well over $73,000.

A sizeable portion of those gains came on the heels of the impressive ETF inflow numbers. Aside from Grayscale’s converted trust (GBTC), which was almost always in the red, most other BTC ETFs were gaining traction, especially BlackRock’s IBIT. Just a few days before BTC’s ATH, the cumulative net inflows into all ETFs skyrocketed above $1 billion (on March 12), which undoubtedly benefited the underlying asset.

Overall, the Bitcoin ETFs had a highly successful debut, which has (mostly) continued ever since with over $57 billion in cumulative net inflows in less than two years. BTC also trades nearly 2x its price on the ETF debut day.

ETH’s Disappointment
Needless to say, ETH also dumped after the release of the ETFs tracking its performance. The debut day was July 23, 2024, and Ether went from $3,600 to under $2,200 in about two weeks.

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Ripple (XRP) ETFs Reign Supreme as Total Inflows Surpass Bitcoin, Ethereum Funds

However, this wasn’t just a one-off sell-the-news event as with BTC. The ETFs couldn’t pick up the pace for months, as the Grayscale withdrawals overshadowed the minor net inflows. In fact, the Ethereum ETFs couldn’t stage an impressive inflow streak until the end of the year. ETH’s price reflected that with a massive surge from under $2,500 to over $4,000 in December 2024.

Since then, the ETH ETFs have been mostly stable and positive. However, the largest altcoin’s current price is below its valuation on July 23, 2024.

How Does XRP Compare?
The first XRP-based ETF with 100% exposure to the asset went live on November 13. Canary Capital’s XRPC broke the 2025 record for highest trading volume on day 1. Three more such financial vehicles followed suit in the next few weeks.

The total inflows are close to $900 million. There hasn’t been a single day in which the net outflows have overshadowed the net inflows, and the streak remains intact even though the demand has slowed down a bit.

Yet, XRP’s price has followed the overall trend. It dumped on November 13 from over $2.50 to under $2.30 and has been unable to stage a notable recovery. Even though it rebounded from the multi-month low of $1.83 reached on November 21, it currently trades at $2.03, which is well below the debut day price.

Nevertheless, the XRP ETFs have outperformed the BTC and ETH counterparts since Canary Capital’s product debuted, which should be considered as a bullish sign for the underlying asset if the inflows continue.

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Sat, 6/12/2025 - 13:35

Dogecoin futures traders have shown less commitment over the last 24 hours with only 9,820,000,000 DOGE currently available in unsettled futures contracts.

Cover image via U.Today

The crypto market is back on the downside and so is the Dogecoin futures market as its open interest volume over the last day shows a notable decline, according to data from CoinGlass.

The data shows that Dogecoin has seen its futures open interest decline by 5.55% over the last day. This decline shows a massive slowdown as traders appear to be taking caution amid the negative market trend.

9,820,000,000 DOGE committed amid market slumpFollowing the plunge in the metric, the total number of active futures contracts involving Dogecoin that have not been settled has dropped significantly to 9.82 billion DOGE worth approximately $1.37 billion per DOGE’s current trading price.

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Although the data shows Dogecoin’s derivatives trend over the last day, the DOGE open interest volume has remained significantly low since the past days compared to levels seen before the huge Oct. 10 market crash.

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The negative trend shows that traders are becoming less willing to commit their holdings to its futures contract amid rising uncertainty spurred by the reoccurring market correction.

Nonetheless, what’s interesting is that the DOGE open interest volume saw a mild increase in the last hour, suggesting a decent shift in sentiment as interest might be returning to the Dogecoin derivatives market.

What's next for DOGE price?It is important to note that the decline in Dogecoin’s open interest has coincided with the unexpected reversal witnessed in the price of Dogecoin.

The downtrend, which is witnessed across the broad crypto market, has seen prices of altcoins and meme tokens mirror the broader market downturn led by Bitcoin and Ethereum.

As such, Dogecoin has declined by 3.14% over the last day, and its price is trading at $0.1395 over the last day.

The decline in its futures activity coinciding with a decline in its trading price suggests that traders are increasingly exiting leveraged positions, providing no positive outlook for the asset in the near term.

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Vanguard has announced the inclusion of Solana (SOL) in its latest exchange-traded fund (ETF), marking a pivotal moment for the cryptocurrency that has faced both triumphs and challenges in recent years. As of early December 2025, Solana is trading at approximately $250, and the crypto community is abuzz with speculation on whether this development could propel its value to $500.

The addition of Solana to Vanguard’s ETF is a testament to its robust blockchain technology and potential for long-term growth. Vanguard, one of the largest asset management firms globally, is renowned for its cautious yet calculated approach to investment. The company’s decision to incorporate Solana into its ETF portfolio suggests confidence in the cryptocurrency’s fundamentals and its ability to withstand market volatility.

Solana has been a standout in the cryptocurrency space, known for its high-speed transactions and lower costs compared to its peers. The blockchain’s architecture enables it to process thousands of transactions per second, a feature that has made it appealing for decentralized finance (DeFi) applications and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). This technical advantage has attracted a range of developers and projects, further solidifying Solana’s position in the market.

Historically, the inclusion of a cryptocurrency in a major ETF can lead to increased investor interest and, subsequently, a rise in price. For instance, the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs in previous years led to substantial inflows and price increases. The potential impact of Vanguard’s SOL ETF could be similar, offering widespread exposure to institutional and retail investors who might have been hesitant to invest in Solana directly.

Moreover, Solana’s ecosystem continues to expand, with numerous projects launching on its platform. The network has seen a surge in activity, with developers drawn by its scalability and efficiency. This expansion is supported by a strong community and a dedicated development team, factors that are critical in sustaining long-term growth and innovation.

However, reaching a price target of $500 is not without challenges. The cryptocurrency market is notoriously volatile, and external factors such as regulatory changes, macroeconomic trends, and competitive pressures could influence Solana’s trajectory. While the ETF inclusion provides a boost, it also raises expectations that Solana must meet to justify its valuation.

Globally, the crypto market has been under scrutiny, with governments and regulatory bodies paying close attention to developments in the space. The ripple effects of regulatory decisions can be significant. For example, tighter regulations in major economies like the United States or the European Union could introduce hurdles that affect Solana’s market performance. Investors should be mindful of these potential risks when considering the long-term prospects of the cryptocurrency.

Additionally, competition from other blockchains remains fierce. Ethereum, with its well-established platform and upcoming upgrades, continues to be a formidable competitor. Newer blockchains are also emerging with innovative solutions, aiming to capture market share. Solana must continuously innovate to maintain its competitive edge and justify its growing valuation.

The success of Solana can be largely attributed to its unique consensus mechanism, Proof-of-History (PoH), which enhances scalability by providing a historical record that proves that an event has occurred at a specific moment in time. This innovation allows Solana to process transactions rapidly, attracting high traffic from various decentralized applications. The adoption of PoH sets Solana apart from other blockchains, which often struggle with speed and efficiency.

The broader acceptance of cryptocurrencies in traditional finance highlights a shift in investment strategies. As digital assets become more mainstream, institutions like Vanguard are increasingly integrating them into diversified portfolios. This trend suggests that blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies are being recognized for their potential to generate returns alongside traditional assets.

Yet, the volatility inherent in the crypto market cannot be ignored. Despite the positive developments, market sentiment can shift quickly, and Solana’s price could be impacted by sudden changes in investor confidence or economic conditions. The recent bear market, which saw significant declines in many digital currencies, serves as a reminder of the unpredictable nature of these assets.

Solana’s journey toward reaching $500 will likely depend on a combination of factors: continued technological advancements, strategic partnerships, and market sentiment. Vanguard’s endorsement through the ETF is a strong vote of confidence, signaling trust in Solana’s capacity to deliver value. However, it is crucial for investors to conduct thorough research and remain vigilant about market dynamics.

In conclusion, while the path to $500 for Solana involves numerous hurdles, the potential rewards could be substantial. Vanguard’s SOL ETF inclusion provides a significant boost, aligning with the broader trend of digital assets gaining traction in traditional financial markets. Solana must leverage this momentum, continue to innovate, and navigate the complex landscape of the cryptocurrency world to achieve its ambitious price targets. As the crypto market evolves, Solana’s ability to adapt and grow will be key to its long-term success.

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XRP trades near $2.02, down about 12.9% in the last 30 days as of writing. Price action shows calm, yet institutional demand tells a louder story. U.S. spot XRP ETFs crossed $1 billion in assets under management, marking one of the fastest ETF growth streaks in the digital asset sector. This surge arrives just weeks after launch, and it now reshapes market expectations for 2025.

A Relentless Wave of Inflows Powers the ETF BoomFive U.S. issuers now run spot XRP ETFs, and every one of them reports consistent inflows. The group has recorded consecutive days of net inflows since mid-November. No outflows appear anywhere in the data. The total now sits between $897 million and $1 billion, depending on the latest update.

Canary Capital leads with the strongest haul. Bitwise, Grayscale, and Franklin Templeton follow with growing demand from family offices and hedge funds. A new entrant, 21Shares, prepares to expand competition. Fresh issuers signal a deeper trend as institutions shift capital toward regulated crypto products.

Millions of XRP Flow Into Vaults as Supply ShrinksThe ETF buying wave locked 473.5 million XRP in regulated vaults, pulling nearly 0.5% of the entire circulating supply out of active markets. Analysts tracked this climb throughout the week as cumulative inflows surged. Grayscale played a major role. The firm added nearly 20 million XRP in a single day, pushing its trust above 103 million XRP and more than $217 million in AUM.

The move helped push combined ETF holdings above 400 million XRP, then above 470 million, and signals firm demand even during a period of weak price action. Traders now watch how supply removal influences future volatility once inflows slow.

ETF Flows Rise While Bitcoin and Ethereum Show Mixed TrendsThe contrast between XRP ETF flows and larger competitors stands out. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs show uneven or negative inflows during the same period. XRP, on the other hand, draws capital every single day. Analysts call this divergence rare. Flow leads price, not the reverse. Institutions build exposure while retail traders sit out. Markets saw similar patterns in other assets before large price swings.

The price of XRP stays near $2 despite the surge in institutional buying. Social sentiment dipped into fear territory this week. Those conditions last appeared in October. The fear index does not match the inflow surge, creating one of the sharpest disconnects in the market.

Ripple’s Stablecoin Strategy Adds Fuel to Institutional InterestRipple’s growing role in the stablecoin ecosystem adds a second tailwind.They project that U.S. dollar-backed stablecoins could reach $2.5 to $3 trillion by 2030. Ripple positions its regulated stablecoin, RLUSD, as a bridge for global settlement flows.

Executives highlight a two-track system. XRP handles liquidity and settlement, while RLUSD manages daily payments and treasury operations for banks and payment firms. Institutional investors watch this model gain traction as tokenization and cross-border clearing gain attention across global finance.

The ETF inflows align with this growing strategic interest. Investors view XRP as infrastructure, not speculation. They accumulate early and reduce liquid supply while the market waits for catalysts in 2025.

The Next Levels Traders Watch CloselyMarket watchers now focus on two milestones. The first is how fast new inflows push past the $1 billion line. The second is whether XRP’s price reacts once that level holds. If flows begin to influence price, traders expect sharp volatility. If the price stays stable, institutions may continue loading quietly.

Either path strengthens the long-term outlook. One fact now stands out across the sector. XRP ETFs attract capital while other crypto funds lose it. Demand does not disappear. It simply moves.

Strategy CEO Phong Le said the company raised a $1.44 billion U.S. dollar reserve to calm investor fears about its ability to pay dividends and ride out a Bitcoin downturn, speaking Friday on CNBC’s “Power Lunch.”

Le said Strategy began raising capital “a couple of weeks ago,” putting dollars on its balance sheet “to get rid of this FUD” around the firm’s financial health as Bitcoin slid from recent highs.

The company announced the reserve on Monday. It said the cash pile, funded through a stock sale, is meant to cover at least 12 months of dividend payments, with a plan to extend that buffer to roughly 24 months over time.

Le told CNBC the raise took about eight and a half days and equates to roughly 21 months of dividend obligations. He said the move was meant both to address concerns about a possible shortfall and to show Strategy can still attract capital “in a Bitcoin downcycle” without selling any of its Bitcoin holdings.

In a post on X summarizing the appearance, Strategy said Le discussed how MSTR’s share price moves with Bitcoin, how the new dollar reserve addresses “recent FUD,” the shifting Overton window for corporate Bitcoin treasuries, key volatility drivers, and “why Bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains strong.”

Le also repeated that Strategy would only consider selling Bitcoin if its stock traded below the value of its holdings and the firm no longer had access to fresh capital, echoing guidance he gave in earlier remarks now restated in today’s coverage.

Analyst Sees Strategy’s 2025 Slump Echoing 2021 Pattern, Flags $100 Target ZoneA trader posting under the name MarketMaestro says Strategy Inc.’s weekly chart mirrors its 2021 topping pattern and could still slide toward a support area near $100 before the downtrend exhausts. The view appears in his community post and in the weekly chart image you shared, created on TradingView on Dec. 5.

In his analysis, MarketMaestro compares two multi-month structures on the weekly MSTR chart: one that formed in 2021 and the current one in 2025. In both cases, he marks an initial peak labeled “A,” followed by a rounded top labeled “1-E-2” under a dotted arc. Beneath each arc he draws a green horizontal band that he calls a “confirmation” zone, where price breaks down and turns the pattern bearish.

The chart shows Strategy already losing that confirmation area in the 2025 leg. Candles sit well below the weekly moving average line, which runs near the prior range. A label “8” appears next to the current decline, while the 2021 section shows a “9” at the end of the previous drop, highlighting what he calls an important exhaustion count.

Strategy Weekly Fractal Comparison. Source: MarketMaestro (TradingView)

MarketMaestro notes in his captioned text that this is the eighth straight week of decline for MSTR and that, in the earlier cycle, the stock reversed in the ninth week. He ties this to the common “9-countdown” idea in technical analysis, where a series of nine bars in one direction can signal that momentum is tiring. In his view, next week could bring either a short-term bounce or the start of a larger reversal if the pattern repeats.

However, his chart also sketches two possible paths lower. One shows MSTR holding around a horizontal line marked “2 (167.71),” which he treats as support. The other, drawn with a dashed curve, continues down to a “Target” icon close to the $100 area on the weekly scale. He adds in the commentary that any sustained reversal would require a move back above roughly $183, which he marks as a resistance level.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt remains cautious about Bitcoin’s outlook. In his latest post on X, he stated that the recent rally might be the only retest of the broadening top pattern that traders will get. 

The formation, often called a megaphone pattern, is widely viewed in technical analysis as a warning sign that an uptrend could be approaching a bearish reversal.

“This week's rally may be all the retesting of the broadening top we will see. Of course, we will see,” the seasoned trader wrote. 

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Bitcoin price to drop below $70,000?According to Brandt, Bitcoin failed to reach the upper boundary of its long-term price channel during this year’s advance. In earlier market cycles, the same kind of behavior often preceded a decline toward the lower boundary of the channel. 

That area begins below $70,000 and stretches into the mid $45,000, which is why Brandt treats that entire region as a realistic target rather than a dramatic scenario.

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Brandt assigned a 30% probability that Bitcoin had already topped in the current cycle. If the top comes in the second half of September, it could even be remembered as the "Brandt Top," he said. The comment was made right at the time when Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at approximately $120,000.

In late November, Peter Brandt revisited the chart with a hand-drawn "dead cat bounce" figure, which usually describes a temporary recovery within a broader bearish trend. The setup sees Bitcoin's two-week drop from above $120,000 to the low $80,000s as a full five-wave correction, with nothing more than a basic rebound on the other side.

Source: Peter Brandt/XThe chart shows the same zone that traders have been stuck in for days: around $88,000 to $92,000. According to Brandt, the $88,000–$92,000 range is the only one that matters right now. 

Will Bitcoin recover in 2025?Bitcoin started December near 85,000 dollars but staged a sharp rebound that pushed it up to the 94,000 dollar area. This move revived hopes among traders that a seasonal Christmas rally could still emerge. 

Retail investors have been eyeing 97,000 dollars as an important resistance level and a potential point to take profit, yet the market has not been able to reach that target.

Source: CoinMarketCapDespite the recent volatility, Bitcoin continues to dictate direction for the broader market. Most major altcoins tend to mirror its movements, and sentiment across the sector usually adjusts in response. 

For now, market participants remain cautious but optimistic as they wait for a decisive breakout to set the tone going into 2025.

On the bright side, the “extreme fear” state of the past two months is starting to shift, as the Fear & Greed index moves from the red zone into orange. 

Cover image via U.Today

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

Shiba Inu lead ambassador Shytoshi Kusama remains silent on X, with his last post made Sept. 15.

The silence calls for attention, particularly in light of recent developments in the Shiba Inu ecosystem that tested its strength, including a rebase issue with the LEASH token and a brief exploit of the Shibarium bridge. In the most recent update, which was reported by U.Today, the Shibarium bridge hacker refused the bounty offer, with K9 Finance contributor Shima afterward revealing the hacker's trail to the public for necessary action to be taken by enforcement agents.

While Kusama remains silent, in his last post on X, he made it known that this should not be taken as absence, adding that he remains beside the Shiba Inu team. Kusama disclosed what he had been up to, saying he has continued in his push for AI initiatives to better Shiba Inu ecosystem tokens.

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Kusama started stepping back from X activity in late July after the release of the AI-focused paper. While the Shiba Inu lead ambassador hinted at signals as to what he was up to with his public location and bio changing, however this still remains without comment.

Will Shytoshi Kusama break his silence in December?In previous Decembers, a trend was noticed with Kusama's activity on X seemingly increasing. This is as he caps off the developments in the year while revealing expectations for the incoming year.

At the end of December 2024, Kusama launched a 44-episode podcast series titled "Shy Speaks," which provided in-depth, personal insights into the Shiba Inu project, its technology, philosophy and community.

In December 2023, Kusama ignited buzz on X as he highlighted developments for Shibarium, which launched in the same year, while revealing expectations ahead.

Six days into December 2025, Kusama extends his silence, citing an intense focus on a personal, AI-driven mission he was working on.

What the SHIB lead ambassador has planned for December remains unknown, or maybe he will continue with his silence until 2026.

Prosecutors Push for 12 Years as Do Kwon Faces His Toughest JudgmentU.S. prosecutors seek 12 years for Do Kwon, arguing Terraform’s collapse caused more damage than major crypto fraud cases as the court prepares to decide his fate.

Emir Abyazov2 min read

6 December 2025, 02:20 PM

U.S. prosecutors have recommended a 12-year prison sentence for Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon, arguing that the financial damage linked to the collapse of the Terra ecosystem exceeds the combined losses seen in the cases of Sam Bankman-Fried, Alex Mashinsky, and Carl Sebastian Greenwood.

The request was submitted to the New York District Court four months after Kwon pleaded guilty to two fraud charges. Prosecutors insist that his actions not only accelerated Terraform’s downfall but also contributed to the broader onset of the “crypto winter.”

They also called for full forfeiture of any income tied to his conduct.

Defense Seeks Leniency as Global Legal Pressures MountKwon was indicted in the United States in 2023 on charges that included securities fraud and money laundering. After Terra’s collapse, he went into hiding before being arrested in Montenegro on unrelated offenses and later extradited to the U.S.

Now, the court must determine his final sentence. Judges are not bound by the prosecution’s request — meaning the punishment could be shorter or significantly longer than 12 years.

Defense Cites Harsh Consequences in South KoreaKwon’s legal team is pushing for a sentence of no more than five years, arguing that once his U.S. sentence is served, he will be deported directly to South Korea, where he faces up to 40 years in prison. They emphasize that Kwon will not be eligible for release between the two proceedings.

When determining his punishment, the judge will weigh both sides’ arguments and compare similar cases.

Sam Bankman-Fried: 25 yearsAlex Mashinsky: 12 yearsCarl Sebastian Greenwood: 20 years for OneCoinAs reported earlier, Bankman-Fried has claimed that his own case involved judicial bias and has requested a review.

The final sentencing of Do Kwon is expected to set one of the most significant precedents in crypto-related criminal cases.

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The SEC’s Crypto Task Force scheduled a four-hour roundtable on financial surveillance and privacy for Dec. 15, bringing together zero-knowledge proof developers, civil liberties advocates, and protocol executives to debate whether blockchain privacy tools can coexist with anti-money laundering enforcement.

The timing is deliberate. Two months ago, the co-founders of Samourai Wallet received five- and four-year prison sentences for operating what prosecutors called an unlicensed money transmitter that facilitated $237 million in illegal transactions.

Three months before that, a jury convicted Tornado Cash developer Roman Storm on unlicensed money-transmitting charges but deadlocked on money-laundering conspiracy and acquitted him on sanctions violations.

FinCEN’s proposed Section 311 rule targeting international cryptocurrency mixing as a “class of transactions of primary money laundering concern” remains unfinished, with its comment period closed since January 2024 and its final text expected in 2025.

Commissioner Hester Peirce, who leads the task force, framed the event as a chance to “recalibrate financial surveillance measures to ensure the protection of our nation and the liberties that make America unique.”

The panel list reads like a blueprint for what that recalibration might look like: Zcash founder Zooko Wilcox, Aleo CEO Koh, Espresso Systems CSO Jill Gunter, and SpruceID founder Wayne Chang represent the zero-knowledge and privacy-preserving computation camp.

Summer Mersinger from the Blockchain Association and J.W. Verret from George Mason Law School bring the policy and legal framing.

ACLU senior policy analyst Jay Stanley represents the civil liberties perspective that has historically treated financial surveillance as a Fourth Amendment pressure point.

The three-level squeeze on privacy tools defines the backdrop. Samourai’s sentences show the harshest operational-liability outcome for wallet-linked mixing: co-founders Keonne Rodriguez and William Lonergan Hill pleaded guilty, and Judge Denise Cote sentenced them in November 2025.

The DOJ treated Samourai as a mixer that enabled darknet markets, cyber intrusions, and transactions tied to sanctioned jurisdictions.

The theory is: if a software facilitates financial privacy and someone operates it as a service, they run an unlicensed money-transmitting business.

The Storm verdict draws a narrower line. The jury convicted him on the unlicensed transmitter conspiracy but deadlocked on the more serious money-laundering charge and acquitted him on sanctions-related conspiracy.

Prosecutors argued that Tornado Cash enabled over $1 billion in illegal transactions, including flows tied to North Korea-linked actors. Still, the jury showed greater comfort with punishing “money transmission” theories than with affirming the full “developer equals launderer” leap.

FinCEN’s Section 311 proposal is the regulatory overhang that makes the SEC roundtable feel coordinated with a broader federal posture.

The agency issued the notice of proposed rulemaking in October 2023, identifying international cryptocurrency mixing as a money-laundering concern and proposing enhanced recordkeeping and reporting requirements for covered financial institutions when they know, suspect, or have reason to suspect a transaction involves such mixing.

Legal analyses at the time noted how unusual it was for FinCEN to use Section 311 to target an activity class rather than a specific institution or jurisdiction.

The comment period ended in January 2024. A Unified Agenda entry indicated movement toward a final rule stage with a 2025 window.

As of early December 2025, FinCEN’s Special Measures list still shows the cryptocurrency mixing action as anchored to the 2023 finding, without a listed final-rule link, indicating the rule has not been finalized.

The gap between the NPRM and the final rule creates uncertainty about how aggressively FinCEN will institutionalize surveillance expectations for mixer-linked flows.

The privacy-preserving computation betThe panelists represent a technical thesis: that zero-knowledge proofs, homomorphic encryption, and programmable privacy can satisfy compliance requirements without exposing transaction graphs to blanket surveillance.

Aleo, Espresso, Zcash, and similar projects build systems that allow users to prove they meet regulatory thresholds, are non-sanctioned counterparty, have complied with tax reporting requirements, and are accredited investors, without disclosing the full transaction history.

The theory assumes regulators will accept selective disclosure backed by cryptographic proof rather than requiring full ledger visibility as the default.

SpruceID’s Wayne Chang brings a complementary angle: decentralized identity systems that let users control attestations about compliance status without relying on centralized intermediaries.

The counterargument, implicit in the Samourai and Storm prosecutions, is that privacy-by-default architectures obscure enforcement sight lines too much.

Prosecutors argued that Tornado Cash and Samourai enabled bad actors precisely because the tools did not distinguish between legitimate privacy use cases and criminal obfuscation.

The DOJ’s position treats privacy tools as infrastructure that must be designed with law enforcement access built in, not bolted on.

That framing collapses the distinction between “tool” and “service” and treats developers who deploy privacy-preserving code as operators of financial services subject to Bank Secrecy Act obligations.

What the SEC gains from this conversationThe roundtable gives the SEC a public record on whether privacy-preserving technology can meet securities law obligations.

The commission does not regulate mixing directly; that is, FinCEN and DOJ territory. However, it governs the issuance, trading, and custody of digital assets that could be structured with privacy features.

If a tokenized security uses zero-knowledge proofs to hide transaction details, does that violate broker-dealer reporting requirements?

Can an alternative trading system use privacy-preserving computation to match orders without disclosing pre-trade information to competitors while still meeting Regulation ATS transparency rules?

The roundtable panelists will potentially answer those questions live, on the record, with Chairman Paul Atkins and Commissioners Mark Uyeda and Hester Peirce present.

The timing also lets the SEC position itself relative to FinCEN.

If FinCEN finalizes the Section 311 mixer rule with broad restrictions, the SEC can point to its December roundtable as evidence that it explored whether technology could solve the compliance problem before defaulting to prohibition.

On the other hand, if FinCEN softens the rule or delays it further, the SEC’s roundtable becomes a signal that the administration is open to privacy-preserving solutions that meet law enforcement needs.

Either way, the event builds a record that lets the SEC claim it consulted technologists, civil libertarians, and industry before deciding how to treat privacy in digital asset regulation.

The SEC now decides how much weight to give privacy-preserving computation in its own rulemaking.

If the roundtable reaches consensus that zero-knowledge proofs can meet compliance obligations, the commission can incorporate that flexibility into broker-dealer, ATS, and custody rules for digital assets.

If the roundtable fractures into “privacy is a right” versus “privacy enables crime” camps, the SEC defaults to existing surveillance-heavy frameworks and leaves privacy advocates to litigate in court.
The Samourai sentences and the Storm verdict, for now, have already defined the boundaries of criminal liability.

The Dec. 15 roundtable decides whether there is space inside those boundaries for privacy-preserving technology to exist at all.

Mentioned in this article

Anthony Pompliano's Bitcoin Treasury Firm ProCap BTC Closes SPAC Merger DealShares in the company fell more than 50% this week as the merger approval went forward.Updated Dec 6, 2025, 2:32 p.m. Published Dec 6, 2025, 2:29 p.m.

Special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) Columbus Circle Capital (BRR) and ProCap BTC — led by Anthony Pompliano and having raised more than $750 million to build a bitcoin treasury firm — closed their merger late Friday.

The combined company has been renamed ProCap Financial and will begin trading on the Nasdaq under the BRR symbol on Monday.

STORY CONTINUES BELOW

The performance of the hastily-formed bitcoin treasury companies (BTCTCs) this year has been disastrous, with most down 90% or more following their SPAC combinations.

KindlyMD (NAKA) and Strive (ASST) — to name two of the higher-profile ones — each now trade for less than $1.

BRR shares had traded in a very tight range near their offering price of $10 for several months. They even closed at $10.15 on Friday Nov. 28, perhaps as investors held out hope the merger would not be approved and Columbus Circle might look for another merger partner or return capital to shareholders.

As the merger completion became evident this week, BRR plunged more than 50%, closing yesterday at $4.36.

Pomp attempts to address concernsAmong the issues facing this year's crop of BTCTCs are the often sweet compensation deals secured by managements and the boards. After all, why should investors be paying so much money for something they can kind of do themselves — buy and hold bitcoin.

Surely hearing those concerns, Pompliano earlier this week said he will earn a salary of just $1 per year with no guaranteed bonus. Going further, he pledged that any equity compensation will not kick in until the stock hits $15 per share, or more than three times its current trading price.

Pompliano also said the board had agreed not to receive any equity compensation until the share price hits certain price targets. As for the preferred investors in the SPAC deal (the so-called PIPE), they too will need targets to be met.

"CEOs and Boards shouldn't be making millions of dollars unless retail shareholders are also winning," said Pompliano. "Now that I am in charge of a public company, I hope to set the standard for what true shareholder alignment looks like."

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The rally is driven by speculation that a final verdict could bring clarity to the project, as well as technical factors like token burns.

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Terra Classic (LUNC) surged 74% to $0.0000072, up 160% in the past week, on exploding trading volume, ahead of Terraform Labs founder Do Kwon's sentencing on Dec. 11.The rally is driven by speculation that a final verdict could bring clarity to the project, as well as technical factors like token burns, with 849 million LUNC destroyed in the past week.The token's momentum is also fueled by Binance's pause on LUNC withdrawals ahead of the Terra Chain's v2.18 upgrade, which aims to improve network stability, despite the token remaining volatile.Read full story