Market Signal Briefing

Ripple Labs released a major update in Feb. regarding its XRP Ledger (XRPL). But will that be enough to save XRP's price from Bitcoin's stiff correction?

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Trump-backed American Bitcoin has seen its Bitcoin reserves move above 6,000 BTC, now valued at $425.82 million. The purchase activity follows Bitcoin’s climb back above $70,000, despite wider market fears over a possible Bitcoin dip. The company built its BTC stack through both mining and direct buying.

American Bitcoin Holdings Climb Past 6,000 BTC Mark According to Arkham Intelligence, American Bitcoin has accumulated 6,049 BTC after buying 196 BTC over the past 18 days. The firm now ranks among the top 20 largest public Bitcoin holders globally. It also is in the same group as Nakamoto Inc., Anthony Pompliano’s ProCap, and GameStop.

There have been multiple transfers from Foundry Digital into American Bitcoin. Two hours ago, Foundry Digital transferred 10.878 BTC to the company. One day ago, another transfer delivered 10.877 BTC, from a prior 10.873 BTC two days ago.

This steady stream of inflows strengthened American Bitcoin’s reserve position during a market rebound. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s move above $70,000 followed a softer-than-expected U.S. inflation report.

ABTC Stock Moves Higher After Fresh Bitcoin Purchases Following the latest Bitcoin purchases, ABTC stock moved higher in after-hours trading. At press time, ABTC traded at $1.14, up 0.87%, or $0.0098, as per Yahoo Finance data. However, the stock remained down year-to-date despite the after-hours gain.

Source: Yahoo Finance

The previous close stood at $1.15, while the stock’s daily range is between $1.12 and $1.19. Over the past year, ABTC traded between $0.63 and $14.65. The company’s market cap currently is at $1.05 billion, with average volume near 12.39 million shares.

This small rebound in ABTC stock is not isolated. Today, Bitcoin price is at $70,286, up by 0.19% in the past 24 hours. Over the last 24 hours, the overall crypto market increased by 0.5%, to reach 2.41 trillion.

Hut 8 Mining Partnership Drives Daily BTC Production American Bitcoin has also pointed to its mining expansion through Hut 8 Corp. In a company update, Hut 8 CEO Asher Genoot said the operation mines about 8 to 10 Bitcoin per day. He also explained Bitcoin’s fixed supply, noting only 21 million Bitcoin will ever exist.

Genoot, who serves as chairman of American Bitcoin, said Bitcoin issuance drops every four years due to halving cycles. He added that this schedule leads to the final supply being reached around the year 2140. He also described the firm’s new mining site as spanning roughly five football fields.

Eric Trump said he visited the facility for the first time and called it new for the company. Genoot said Hut 8 and American Bitcoin expanded after meeting in southern Florida. He explained that Hut 8’s infrastructure supported American Bitcoin’s mining and holding strategy.

SBI Holdings CEO Yoshitaka Kitao has clarified recent reports that suggested the Japanese financial giant holds $10 billion worth of XRP tokens. In a direct response to the inaccurate claims, Kitao confirmed that SBI's position is not in XRP tokens but in Ripple Labs, the company behind the XRP ledger. SBI owns a significant 9% equity stake in Ripple Labs, which allows the firm to benefit from the company’s growth, rather than directly holding XRP itself.

SBI Holdings Investment in Ripple LabsSBI CEO Kitao took to X to correct the financial misunderstanding after a user, @strivex_, claimed that SBI was a major XRP holder. The user had referred to SBI’s recent expansion into Singapore and suggested that SBI held $10 billion worth of XRP tokens. 

In a quoted response, Kitao emphasized that holding $10 billion in XRP would expose SBI to significant volatility, whereas owning equity in Ripple Labs gives the company a solid stake in Ripple's overall ecosystem without the risks associated with holding the token.

SBI's stake in Ripple Labs means that the firm has a significant portion of the company’s equity, as Ripple continues to develop its blockchain technology and grow its network of institutional partnerships. This is a notable distinction, as it aligns SBI with Ripple's long-term business prospects rather than the daily price fluctuations of XRP itself.

Ripple’s Ecosystem and ValuationRipple’s ecosystem is seen as a key enabler of cross-border payments and decentralized finance (DeFi). Recent private market reports have suggested that Ripple’s valuation could exceed $50 billion, given the company’s growth potential and the increasing institutional adoption of XRP and its ledger. 

According to these valuations, SBI's 9% stake in Ripple Labs would be worth approximately $4.5 billion today.

SBI Holdings CEO Yoshitaka Kitao also referred to Ripple’s overall ecosystem as a "hidden asset" that is not fully reflected in the current book value of SBI. He suggested that the full value of Ripple's ecosystem, which includes its extensive partnerships and technology, would significantly boost Ripple's valuation in the future. The growth of Ripple as a fintech powerhouse positions SBI to benefit from any appreciation in Ripple's overall value.

SBI's Strategic Role in Ripple’s SuccessSBI has been a staunch ally of Ripple since 2016, and this partnership continues to evolve as both companies push forward in the cryptocurrency and blockchain sectors. Beyond holding an equity stake, SBI has been actively involved in advancing Ripple’s objectives globally. 

Recently, SBI announced its acquisition of a majority stake in Coinhako, a regulated cryptocurrency exchange based in Singapore. This acquisition is part of SBI’s broader strategy to create a digital asset corridor between Japan and Southeast Asia. SBI's deepening commitment to Ripple Labs is seen as part of the company's strategy to foster institutional adoption of XRP. 

The ongoing partnership with Ripple provides SBI with a front-row seat to the development of new use cases for XRP, including cross-border payments and real-time settlement solutions. Moreover, as the Coinpaper earlier reported, as part of its continued support for XRP, SBI has also participated in Ripple’s $1 billion treasury initiative through a partnership with Evernorth Holdings, a company that is focused on driving XRP's institutional adoption. 

Amid these clarifications, the Ripple token has seen a brief recovery after the recent crypto market crash. At press time, the XRP price was trading at $1.56, a 6.12% surge from the 24-hour low.

With the price of Bitcoin on the decline, crypto mining companies are making the pivot into AI.

Crypto mining stocks are hot right now, but not for the reason you might think. With the price of Bitcoin (BTC 0.54%) taking a nosedive below the $100,000 price level, crypto mining companies are now making a pivot from Bitcoin into artificial intelligence (AI).

Smaller Bitcoin mining companies have the edge here, given their ability to turn on a dime, and one of the companies on my radar right now is TeraWulf (WULF +2.04%), an AI-focused Bitcoin miner with a market cap of $7 billion. The company's stock is up 52% year to date, and more than 240% over the past year.

The AI pivot Long story short, much of the massive computing power used to mine Bitcoin can now be used to power AI projects. And that's starting to excite a lot of Wall Street investment firms. Morgan Stanley, for example, recently initiated coverage of the Bitcoin mining sector, with a focus on finding undervalued AI infrastructure plays.

Image source: Getty Images.

Not surprisingly, TeraWulf was one of those potential AI infrastructure plays. Morgan Stanley emphasized TeraWulf's ability to execute on large-scale power infrastructure projects. Think: lots and lots of high-end data centers, all powering the latest AI innovations.

Plans call for TeraWulf continuing to grow its AI infrastructure footprint through 2030. As long as the demand for AI compute remains high, TeraWulf should continue to soar.

How much higher can WULF go? Until late 2024, any growth estimates for TeraWulf would have been primarily tied to its ability to scale its Bitcoin mining operations. At the end of the day, TeraWulf would have been valued based on how much Bitcoin it held on its balance sheet, as well as how much higher the price of Bitcoin might soar in the future.

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But TeraWulf has been shedding Bitcoin to help finance its AI compute operations. It's simply more profitable to be in the AI business right now than in the Bitcoin business. That's raising an interesting question for investors: Should the company be valued as a Bitcoin miner, or as an AI infrastructure play?

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If the answer is "Bitcoin miner," then the upside of TeraWulf may be significantly capped, given that it owns a minimal amount of Bitcoin right now. But if the answer is "AI infrastructure play," then the sky's the limit. Morgan Stanley, for example, thinks TeraWulf could hit a price target of $37. That's more than double its current price of $17.

There are other Bitcoin mining companies making the same pivot to AI, but TeraWulf is among the best. It's hard to argue with a stock that's up more than 240% in 12 months.

Journalist

Posted: February 15, 2026

Shiba Inu [SHIB] has rallied 10.35% in 24 hours, following an altcoin market resurgence in the past three days. In this period, the Bitcoin [BTC] dominance has dropped.

Meanwhile, the altcoin market cap expanded by 7.59%, from $683.58 billion to $735.46 billion.

The memecoin market’s gains were led not by Dogecoin [DOGE] but by Pepe [PEPE]. The latter has shown surprising short-term strength against the rest of the market with a 27.7% move in a day.

A week ago, AMBCrypto had warned traders to expect a Shiba Inu price bounce. This was because of the imbalances, or fair value gaps, that the SHIB price action left behind on the 1-day timeframe.

This bounce appeared to be playing out, and some more gains can be expected in the coming days. Analysis of on-chain metrics showed that there was some network-wide accumulation underway.

Evidence for SHIB accumulation In December, the age consumed metric saw a sizeable spike. This indicated a flurry of movement of Shiba Inu coins that had been dormant for a long while. At the same time, the mean coin age fell rapidly.

Together, they showed that both long-term and short-term SHIB holders were exiting the market in a panic. Since then, though the price has fallen lower, the mean coin age metric has been trending higher.

The age consumed metric has a few small spikes, but nothing as alarming as the surge in December. This was a sign of SHIB accumulation.

The average 3-month holder of the memecoin was still at a significant loss, according to the MVRV ratio. Contrary to appearance, this was a sign of short-term health for the rally.

The threat from profit-taking activity or break-even sellers was not imminent yet.

The 7-day moving average of the dormancy metric agreed with these findings. Dormancy calculation is based on the coin days destroyed, which indicates distribution trends.

Low dormancy values reflect upon longer-term dormant SHIB not being transacted—holders did not exhibit a hurry to sell.

While the on-chain metrics showed that a selling wave was not in progress, that does not mean that a SHIB recovery is underway.

Final Summary The Shiba Inu price bounce came alongside a lack of long-term holder selling and network-wide accumulation. While these trends signal short-term price appreciation is possible, the longer-term price action remains bearish.

Bitcoin derivative traders are increasingly positioning for further downside rather than a clean bounce as the leading cryptocurrency continues to trade in a tight range below $70,000.

According to CryptoSlate's data, BTC price bottomed at $65,092 during the last 24 hours but has since recovered to $66,947 as of press time. This continues a weeklong tight trading that has failed to yield any momentum for the bellwether crypto.

That fragility is showing up most clearly in derivatives, where traders are increasingly leaning into short positions designed to profit from further weakness rather than a clean rebound.

This setup creates a familiar tension in crypto markets. Crowded shorts can become fuel for sudden upside, but a market shaped by recent liquidation trauma and shaky spot demand can also stay pinned in defensive mode for longer than contrarian traders expect

Funding shows a crowded downside tradeSantiment’s funding-rate metric, which aggregates major exchanges, has dropped into negative territory, indicating that shorts are paying longs to keep their positions open.

The crypto analytics firm described the drop as the most extreme wave of short positioning since August 2024, a period that coincided with a major bottom and a sharp multi-month recovery.

Bitcoin Shorting Spikes (Source: Santiment)Funding rates exist because perpetual futures do not expire. Exchanges use periodic funding payments to keep perpetual prices aligned with spot prices.

When funding is positive, leveraged longs pay shorts. When it is negative, shorts pay longs. Deeply negative funding usually signals a one-sided trade; the crowd is paying up to stay short, often with leverage.

That creates squeeze risk even in an otherwise weak tape. If spot prices lift, even modestly, losses on leveraged shorts can force buybacks. Those buybacks can push prices higher, thereby triggering additional forced covering.

However, the negative funding is not a guarantee of a rally. It is a measure of how positioning is leaning, not a measure of how much spot demand is waiting on the sidelines.

In early 2026, several signals still read as defensive, which helps explain why bearish funding can persist.

October’s “10/10” crash still shapes risk appetiteThe reason the short trade has traction is rooted in the trauma of October 2025’s historic deleveraging, an event traders shorthand as “10/10.”

CryptoSlate previously reported that more than $19 billion in crypto leverage was liquidated in roughly 24 hours on that day.

The episode was triggered by a macro shock (trade-war tariff headlines) that hit already-crowded positioning and then collided with vanishing order-book depth.

That context matters because it helps explain why extreme negative funding can persist longer than contrarians expect.

After repeated liquidation cascades, many traders treat rallies as opportunities to hedge, reduce exposure, or press shorts into resistance.

In that environment, bearish positioning can become a default posture, rather than a tactical trade that quickly flips.

Glassnode’s latest weekly framing captures the push-and-pull. The firm described Bitcoin as being absorbed within a $60,000 to $72,000 “demand corridor,” a range in which buyers have repeatedly stepped in.

However, it also flagged overhead supply likely to cap relief rallies, pointing to large supply clusters in unrealized loss around $82,000 to $97,000 and $100,000 to $117,000.

Together, those levels sketch a map for traders: there is room for a squeeze inside the corridor, but there are also clear zones where previous buyers may look to sell into strength.

Options pricing shows fear is being paid forDerivatives markets beyond funding are reinforcing caution.

Deribit’s Weekly market report showed that BTC funding fell to its most negative level since April 2024 and that short-dated futures traded at strong discounts to spot, a pattern consistent with bearish demand for leverage.

The same report said downside hedging demand surged, with 7-day BTC volatility exceeding 100%.

Bitcoin's 30-Day Volatility (Source: Alphractal)Moreover, BTC Options pricing showed fear being priced for, not just discussed.

The report said volatility smiles priced their largest premium for puts since November 2022, indicating that traders were willing to pay a premium for crash protection even after a bounce.

When puts become that expensive, it usually reflects two things at once: anxiety about sharp downside moves, and skepticism that dips will be orderly.

Spot ETF flows offer a second, less technical window into sentiment, and they look mixed rather than convincingly supportive.

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The SoSo Value daily spot Bitcoin ETF table showed outflows returning on key sessions this week, including net outflows of about $276.3 million on Feb. 11 and roughly $410.2 million on Feb. 12, with multiple funds reporting negative returns.

Those numbers matter because the ETF wrapper has become a central transmission mechanism between traditional portfolios and Bitcoin exposure. When it bleeds, it can weaken the spot bid, even if offshore markets are trading actively.

Essentially, the message is clear that BTC's selling pressure is not easing, and a stable bid for the top crypto has not reasserted itself.

In that gap, bearish derivatives positioning can remain dominant, and short squeezes can occur without turning into sustained uptrends.

Three paths from here: squeeze, grind, or breakdownIn light of the above, BTC's next move may hinge less on any single funding print and more on whether the market shifts from liquidation-driven repositioning into stabilization.

Against that backdrop, traders are framing the next phase in three broad scenarios.

The first is a squeeze rally that runs into overhead resistance.

In this scenario, positioning is too one-sided, and deeply negative funding becomes fuel. If spot demand improves, Bitcoin could retest the upper end of the $60,000-$72,000 corridor and approach $79,200, the True Market Mean identified by Glassnode.

After that, the key test would come above that, where Glassnode’s overhead supply clusters fall within the $82,000 to $97,000 range. The story in that case is not a clean return to a new bull market; it is a reflexive rally into a region packed with potential sellers.

The second is a range grind that is consistent with the view that risk sentiment has not fully recovered.

In this situation, the funding rate remains volatile but drifts toward neutrality as open interest and leverage remain subdued following repeated washouts.

In that world, short crowding can still spark bursts higher, but inconsistent spot flows and persistent hedging demand keep rallies from turning into trends.

The third is a structural breakdown from BTC's current levels.

If the $60,000 to $72,000 corridor fails decisively, valuation gravity shifts toward the roughly $55,000 realized price anchor flagged by Glassnode, especially if macro risk-off flares again while options continue to price elevated downside.

Meanwhile, macro remains the lid on all three paths. With the Federal Reserve holding rates at 3.5% to 3.75% and explicitly flagging elevated uncertainty, crypto’s sensitivity to broader risk conditions remains high.

That is part of why this has become a high-convexity regime where crowded shorts can ignite sudden upside volatility, while defensive hedging and fragile liquidity can still pull prices lower in bursts.

For now, the dominant theme is straightforward: traders are increasingly positioned to profit from downside movements, and the market is volatile enough that it can punish them or reward them with speed.

Mentioned in this articlePosted in

Bitcoin price stands at $69,397, commanding a market capitalization of $1.40 trillion, with $42.58 billion in 24-hour trading volume. Over the past day, bitcoin has traded within a tight intraday range of $69,286 to $70,897, pointing to a market that is active, liquid, and carefully positioning itself.

Robinhood's crypto revenue continues to sink, and its platform also lost monthly active users during the recent quarter.

I wrote articles in August 2025 and last month predicting a collapse in Robinhood Markets (HOOD +6.82%) stock of 50% or more. The stock peaked last October. But it was recently down by as much as 53%, with the downside accelerating in the early stages of this year.

I certainly don't have a crystal ball, but I did examine Robinhood's history very closely, and determined that its remarkable increase in value during 2025 was fueled by many of the unsustainable tailwinds that drove its 2021 rally: Highly speculative investing activity by its retail clients, particularly in the cryptocurrency markets.

Robinhood's investing platform is very popular with young, often first-time investors who trade very actively when the financial markets are strong, but who also have a tendency to retreat when gloom sets in. With that in mind, here's where I think Robinhood stock will go from here.

Image source: Getty Images.

Robinhood's crypto revenue is plummeting (again) Robinhood's clients are very active in the stock, futures, options, cryptocurrency, and even prediction markets. The platform entered the prediction segment last year in partnership with Kalshi, expanding its reach into betting markets for sports and even politics. However, while this shift generated a lot of hype, Robinhood's prediction business was generating annualized revenue of $435 million as of Dec. 31, representing less than 10% of the company's total 2025 revenue of $4.47 billion.

Therefore, I want to focus on Robinhood's cryptocurrency business, which I believe is the main source of the recent plunge in its stock. First, let's rewind the clock back to 2021 -- during that year's second quarter, Robinhood's crypto transaction revenue soared by 4,560% year over year and accounted for more than half of the company's total transaction revenue, as investors piled into highly speculative tokens like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu, which were surging in value at the time.

When those rallies faded, so did client trading activity, which dented Robinhood's crypto business. In fact, by the 2022 second quarter, just one year later, the company's crypto transaction revenue was down by a whopping 75%. By that point, Robinhood stock had plummeted by more than 90%.

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Pivoting back to the present day, a similar trend seems to be underway. Robinhood's crypto transaction revenue soared to $358 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, and once again accounted for more than half of the company's total transaction revenue. Donald Trump's presidential election win triggered a fresh buying frenzy in the crypto markets, because he campaigned on a policy agenda that was expected to benefit the industry.

However, Robinhood's crypto transaction revenue was down 38% in the 2025 fourth quarter, coming in at just $221 million. Speculative tokens like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu plummeted last year, but as I write this, even top crypto coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum have lost between 45% and 60% of their peak value. Therefore, I think a repeat of 2022 might be on the table, so Robinhood's crypto struggles could get worse.

Image source: Robinhood Markets.

Robinhood stock is still expensive, which could lead to more downside Despite the weakness in Robinhood's crypto business, its transaction revenue continues to climb thanks to elevated client trading activity in the stock and options markets. In fact, options trading is now the company's single largest source of transaction revenue -- but this hasn't always worked out so well in the past, because retail investors tend to stop buying risky financial derivatives when the stock market suffers a prolonged sell-off (as was the case in 2022).

That brings me to Robinhood's valuation. Its stock recently traded at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 15.9, which is well above its average of 11.5 since the company went public in 2021.

HOOD PS Ratio data by YCharts

Robinhood's relatively high valuation doesn't make sense with its crypto transaction revenue collapsing, especially considering it's being offset by heightened options trading activity that's almost equally as risky for the platform's clients. Plus, Robinhood had an average of 13 million monthly active users during the fourth quarter of 2025, which was down 13% from the year-ago period, and also down sequentially. If this trend continues, it will almost certainly become a headwind for transaction revenue in the coming quarters.

As a result, I think Robinhood stock is poised for even more downside from here. It would have to decline by a further 27% just to trade in line with its long-term average P/S ratio of 11.5, so that might be a realistic near-term target.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Nvidia's stock is historically cheap despite all the positive indicators.

Feb. 25 is set to be an incredible day for Nvidia (NVDA 2.21%). That's when the company reports fourth-quarter fiscal year 2026 (ended January 2026) earnings, and I expect a blowout quarter.

However, what investors are really looking forward to is guidance. If recent indications from some of its largest clients have any bearing on that (hint: they do), then Nvidia's stock could be set to soar following its earnings.

I think right now is the perfect time to scoop up Nvidia shares, as the move may be dramatic following its earnings report. I've got a handful of reasons why Nvidia is set to soar, although there are likely many others.

Image source: Getty Images.

1. China sales will likely return to guidance After the Trump administration shut down Nvidia chip exports to China in April 2025, there was a sizable hole left in Nvidia's business. Now, it looks like Nvidia is in the clear to start exporting chips again.

We've already seen guidance from rival AMD, including chip sales to China, so I'd expect Nvidia to offer the same. Nvidia's revenue expectations for China for second-quarter FY 2026 was $8 billion, and if that amount returns to guidance for the first quarter, it could result in a massive growth step-up that the market isn't expecting.

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However, even if chip sales to China aren't as large as I expect, there is still plenty of domestic demand.

2. The AI hyperscalers are spending record amounts in 2026 Investors have also learned about AI hyperscalers' capital expenditure plans over the past few weeks. Some of Nvidia's biggest clients, including Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta Platforms, have informed investors of their 2026 capital expenditure plans. Alphabet is expected to spend between $175 billion and $185 billion, Amazon plans to spend $200 billion, and Meta gave guidance for $115 billion to $135 billion. Those are massive numbers and represent huge growth from the past 12 months.

AMZN Capital Expenditures (TTM) data by YCharts.

AI spending is going to reach record levels in 2026, and with Nvidia a primary chip provider, it's well positioned to take advantage.

3. Nvidia's new architecture will drive more growth Nvidia is also launching its new Rubin chip architecture, which provides huge efficiency improvements over the previous Blackwell generation. If tasking a graphics processing unit (GPU) on training an AI model, it takes one Rubin GPU for every four Blackwell chips it used to take to deliver similar performance. On the inference side, it takes one Rubin GPU for every 10 Blackwell GPUs. That's an impressive gain, and may drive companies to upgrade their GPUs because of the cost-effectiveness of doing so.

This new technology should allow Nvidia to continue delivering stellar growth, but the market isn't respecting Nvidia's potential.

4. Nvidia's stock price is historically cheap Many have argued that Nvidia's stock is incredibly expensive. If you're using a trailing earnings metric, then that might be true. However, trailing earnings metrics don't do a stock justice when it's expecting massive growth like Nvidia is. Using a more appropriate forward earnings measure, it's clear that Nvidia's stock really isn't all that expensive.

NVDA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts. PE = price-to-earnings.

At less than 25 times forward earnings, it's near the lowest price it has been at over the past three years. Furthermore, it's barely more expensive than the S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.05%), which trades for 21.8 times forward earnings.

I think a 20% pop could be coming for the stock, as that would increase the price to around 30 times forward earnings, a more appropriate level for Nvidia to trade. That makes it a top-notch stock to buy now, and anyone waiting until after Feb. 25 to buy will have to pay a much higher price.

Keithen Drury has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

A closely watched retail earnings report and some inflation data will highlight a holiday shortened trading wek.

Markets are closed Monday for Presidents Day. Once trading resumes, investors will be getting data delayed by last year’s shutdown, including Friday’s release of the the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report for December, updated housing starts and home sales data, and the U.S. trade deficit.

Retail giant Walmart will be in the spotlight Thursday when it releases its quarterly earnings report. Traders are also expecting financial updates from John Deere, Analog Devices, Palo Alto Networks, Carvana, and DoorDash.

Read to the bottom for our calendar of key events—and one more thing.

PCE Inflation, Q4 GDP Lead Data Releases Investors will get another look at December inflation with Friday’s release of the PCE report. Inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index remained unchanged in December, ad the PCE report is closely followed by the Federal Reserve, meaning its pricing data could influence how officials view the path of interest rates. The minutes for the January meeting of the Federal Reserve are also likely to provide insight into officials’ views on the state of the economy.

Investors will get their first look at economic growth measurements for the fourth quarter with the Thursday release of GDP. It comes after the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported strong economic growth in the third quarter, with its final revisions coming in at 4.4%. 

New home sales and housing starts data for both November and December are scheduled for release this week, and pending home sales for January will provide a forward-looking indicator for the housing market. Two reports on U.S. international trade are also due this week, while durable-goods orders for December can offer insight into the health of the manufacturing sector. 

Walmart Earnings First Under New CEO; 13F Watch Starts Walmart is set to issue its first earnings report under new CEO John Furner. The retailer recently hit $1 trillion in market capitalization, making it the first big box store to reach that size. In its last report, Walmart posted a 4.2% increase in comparable sales and raised its full-year sales forecast.

Farm equipment maker John Deere's report follows a warning that its annual net income would come in lower than expectations as it faced difficult market conditions. Deere’s results can serve as a market indicator for the agricultural and industrial sectors. Tech firms on the reporting calendar include including chipmaker Analog Devices, cybersecurity firm Palo Alto Networks, and chip design software maker Cadence Design. 

Meanwhile, the quarterly 13F fillings that detail the holdings and transactions of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) and other big investors are expected to start showing up this week, illustrating fourth-quarter porfolio changes. Big moves by Berkshire would be considered some of the last under Warren Buffett.

Quick Links: Recap Last Week’s Trading | Read Investopedia’s Latest News

This Week’s Calendar Monday, Feb. 16

Markets closed for Presidents Day holidayFederal Reserve Officials Speaking: Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman Tuesday, Feb. 17

Empire State manufacturing (February) Federal Reserve Officials Speaking: Fed Governor Michael Barr, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly Key Earnings: Medtronics (MDT), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Cadence Design (CDNS), Kenvue (KVUE)
Wednesday, Feb. 18

Housing starts (December, November) More Data to Watch: Durable-goods orders (December), January Federal Reserve meeting minutes  Federal Reserve Officials Speaking: Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman Key Earnings: Analog Devices (ADI), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Carvana (CVNA), Moody’s (MCO), DoorDash (DASH), Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
Thursday, Feb. 19

U.S. trade deficit (December) More Data to Watch: Initial jobless claims (Week ending Feb. 14), U.S. trade balance (December), Retail inventories (December), Wholesale inventories (December), Philadelphia Fed manufacturing (February), Pending home sales (January) Federal Reserve Officials Speaking: Federal Reserve Officials Speaking: Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari Key Earnings: Walmart (WMT), Deere & Co (DE), Newmont (NEM), Southern (SO)
Friday, Feb. 20

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index (December)More Data to Watch: Gross Domestic Product - first reading (Q4), S&P flash Purchasing Manager Index (February), New home sales (December, November), Consumer sentiment - final (February)Federal Reserve Officials Speaking: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic One More Thing If you’re in your 50s, do you need to start buying bonds? Not necessarily, writes Investopedia’s Trina Paul, who has more here on how your investing strategy can shift with age. 

Do you have a news tip for Investopedia reporters? Please email us at

[email protected]

NEW YORK, Feb. 15, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Leading securities law firm Bleichmar Fonti & Auld LLP announces that it has filed a class action lawsuit against BellRing Brands, Inc. (NYSE: BRBR) and certain of the Company’s senior executives for securities fraud after a significant stock drop resulting from potential violations of the federal securities laws.

If you invested in BellRing, you are encouraged to obtain additional information by visiting: https://www.bfalaw.com/cases-investigations/bellring-brands-inc-class-action-lawsuit.

Investors have until March 23, 2026, to ask the Court to be appointed to lead the case. The complaint asserts claims under Sections 10(b) and 20(a) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 on behalf of investors in BellRing securities. The class action is pending in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. It is captioned Denha v. BellRing Brands, Inc., No. 1:26-cv-00575.

Why is BellRing Being Sued for Securities Fraud?

BellRing develops, markets, and sells “convenient nutrition” products such as ready-to-drink (“RTD”) protein shakes primarily under the brand name Premier Protein. During the relevant period, Defendants represented that sales growth reflected increased end-consumer demand, attributing results to “organic growth,” “distribution gains,” “incremental promotional activity,” and “[s]trong macro tailwinds around protein” among other factors. At the same time, Defendants downplayed the impact of competition on demand, insisting BellRing was not experiencing any significant changes in competition, and that in the RTD category particularly, BellRing possessed a “competitive moat,” given that “the ready-to-drink category is just highly complex” and the products are “hard to formulate.”

As alleged, in truth, BellRing’s reported sales during the Class Period were driven by its key customers stockpiling inventory and did not reflect increased end-consumer demand or brand momentum. Following the destocking, BellRing admitted that competitive pressures were materially weakening demand.

Why did BellRing’s Stock Drop?

On May 6, 2025, BellRing’s CFO revealed “several key retailers lowered their weeks of supply on hand, which is expected to be a mid-single-digit headwind to our third quarter growth,” adding “[w]e now expect Q3 sales growth of low single digits.” BellRing’s CEO further revealed that retailers had been “hoarding inventory to make sure they didn’t run out of stock on shelf” and “protecting themselves coming out of capacity constraints,” but since there had been “several quarters of high in-stock rates,” customers “felt comfortable about bringing [inventory] down. We thought this could happen.”

This news caused the price of BellRing stock to drop $14.88 per share, or 19%, from a closing price of $78.43 per share on May 5, 2025, to $63.55 per share on May 6, 2025.

On August 4, 2025, after market hours, BellRing reported its 3Q 2025 financial results and “narrowed its fiscal year 2025 outlook for net sales.” Then, during the Company’s August 5, 2025 earnings call, BellRing’s CEO attributed the narrowed guidance to “several other competitors” gaining space to sell their products with a large retailer and that “it is not surprising to see new protein RTDs enter[ed]” the convenient nutrition market.

This news caused the price of BellRing stock to drop $17.46 per share, or nearly 33%, from a closing price of $53.64 per share on August 4, 2025, to $36.18 per share on August 5, 2025.

Click here for more information: https://www.bfalaw.com/cases-investigations/bellring-brands-inc-class-action-lawsuit.

What Can You Do?

If you invested in BellRing, you may have legal options and are encouraged to submit your information to the firm.

All representation is on a contingency fee basis; there is no cost to you. Shareholders are not responsible for any court costs or expenses of litigation. The firm will seek court approval for any potential fees and expenses.

Submit your information by visiting:

https://www.bfalaw.com/cases-investigations/bellring-brands-inc-class-action-lawsuit

Or contact:
Adam McCall
[email protected]
212.789.3619

Why Bleichmar Fonti & Auld LLP?

BFA is a leading international law firm representing plaintiffs in securities class actions and shareholder litigation. It has been named a top plaintiff law firm by Chambers USA, The Legal 500, and ISS SCAS, and its attorneys have been named “Elite Trial Lawyers” by the National Law Journal, “Litigation Stars” by Benchmark Litigation, among the top “500 Leading Plaintiff Financial Lawyers” by Lawdragon, “Titans of the Plaintiffs’ Bar” by Law360 and “SuperLawyers” by Thomson Reuters. Among its recent notable successes, BFA recovered over $900 million in value from Tesla, Inc.’s Board of Directors, as well as $420 million from Teva Pharmaceutical Ind. Ltd.

For more information about BFA and its attorneys, please visit https://www.bfalaw.com.

https://www.bfalaw.com/cases-investigations/bellring-brands-inc-class-action-lawsuit

Attorney advertising. Past results do not guarantee future outcomes.

NEW YORK, Feb. 15, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Leading securities law firm Bleichmar Fonti & Auld LLP announces that a class action lawsuit has been filed against Kyndryl Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:KD) and certain of the Company’s senior executives for securities fraud after significant stock drops resulting from the potential violations of the federal securities laws.

If you invested in Kyndryl, you are encouraged to obtain additional information by visiting: https://www.bfalaw.com/cases/kyndryl-holdings-class-action-lawsuit.

Investors have until April 13, 2026, to ask the Court to be appointed to lead the case. The complaint asserts claims under Sections 10(b) and 20(a) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 on behalf of investors in Kyndryl securities. The case is pending in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of New York and is captioned Brander v. Kyndryl Holdings, Inc., et al., No. 1:26-cv-00782.

Why is Kyndryl Being Sued for Securities Fraud?

Kyndryl is a provider of enterprise technology services offering advisory, implementation, and managed service capabilities to customers in more than 60 countries. Kyndryl is the world’s largest IT infrastructure services provider.

As alleged, Kyndryl misrepresented its cash management practices, including the drivers of its adjusted free cash flow metric, and the efficacy of Kyndryl’s internal controls over financial reporting, for FY2025 and the first three quarters of FY2026.

Why did Kyndryl’s Stock Drop?

On February 9, 2026, Kyndryl announced that it would delay the release of its fiscal Q3 2026 financial statement pending an accounting review into its cash management practices and related disclosures, including regarding the drivers of the Company’s adjusted free cash flow metric, and certain other matters following document requests from the SEC. Kyndryl also announced the immediate departures of its CFO and General Counsel.

On this news, the price of Kyndryl stock dropped over 52% during the course of trading on February 9, 2026.

Click here for more information: https://www.bfalaw.com/cases/kyndryl-holdings-class-action-lawsuit.

What Can You Do?

If you invested in Kyndryl, you may have legal options and are encouraged to submit your information to the firm.

All representation is on a contingency fee basis, there is no cost to you. Shareholders are not responsible for any court costs or expenses of litigation. The firm will seek court approval for any potential fees and expenses.

Submit your information for the Kyndryl ($KD) Class Action by visiting:

https://www.bfalaw.com/cases/kyndryl-holdings-class-action-lawsuit

Or contact:
Adam McCall
[email protected]
212.789.3619

Why Bleichmar Fonti & Auld LLP?

BFA is a leading international law firm representing plaintiffs in securities class actions and shareholder litigation. It has been named a top plaintiff law firm by Chambers USA, The Legal 500, and ISS SCAS, and its attorneys have been named “Elite Trial Lawyers” by the National Law Journal, “Litigation Stars” by Benchmark Litigation, among the top “500 Leading Plaintiff Financial Lawyers” by Lawdragon, “Titans of the Plaintiffs’ Bar” by Law360 and “SuperLawyers” by Thomson Reuters. Among its recent notable successes, BFA recovered over $900 million in value from Tesla, Inc.’s Board of Directors, as well as $420 million from Teva Pharmaceutical Ind. Ltd.

For more information about BFA and its attorneys, please visit https://www.bfalaw.com.

https://www.bfalaw.com/cases/kyndryl-holdings-class-action-lawsuit

Attorney advertising. Past results do not guarantee future outcomes.

More than 50% off their highs, shares of this gaming stock are getting snapped up by big names.

Gaming stocks have had it rough over the past six months. Whether it's mainstays like Nintendo, down 43%, or newer players like Sea Limited, down 27%, the industry has been hammered since October.

However, there's one gaming company that takes the cake: Roblox (RBLX 0.15%), the popular platform for pre-teens and teens, has seen its shares fall 52% over the past six months:

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However, that may be about to change. A number of Wall Street insiders have been snapping up shares of Roblox in recent days and weeks. Could they be onto something?

Who's buying The most recent buyer of Roblox shares was billionaire investor Cathie Wood. Her ARK Invest ETFs have on a Roblox-buying spree in recent days. On Feb. 9, three different ARK funds -- the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW +2.02%), the ARK Blockchain & Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF +1.65%), and the flagship ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK +2.63%) -- purchased a combined $10.3 million in Roblox stock, with the bulk of it ($7.4 million) going to the ARK Innovation ETF.

But she didn't stop there: The very next day, Feb. 10, those same three funds picked up an additional $7.2 million in Roblox stock, for a total buy of $17.5 million over two days.

Image source: Roblox.

The ARK Invest funds join a who's who of prominent investment firms that have recently bought shares of Roblox. In its latest quarterly filing, major investment firm Blackrock disclosed a total purchase of more than 2 million Roblox shares. Other big investment companies like State Street and Vanguard Group each added more than a million total Roblox shares to their respective portfolios.

Of course, this doesn't guarantee a speedy turnaround for Roblox, but it shows that the stock is attractive enough to major Wall Street insiders at this point for them to quietly start buying.

John Bromels has positions in Sea Limited. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Roblox and Sea Limited. The Motley Fool recommends BlackRock and Nintendo. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

NEW YORK, Feb. 15, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Leading securities law firm Bleichmar Fonti & Auld LLP announces that it has filed a class action lawsuit against Ardent Health, Inc. (NYSE:ARDT) and certain of the Company’s senior executives for securities fraud after a significant stock drop resulting from potential violations of the federal securities laws.

If you invested in Ardent Health, you are encouraged to obtain additional information by visiting: https://www.bfalaw.com/cases/ardent-health-inc-class-action-lawsuit.

Investors have until March 9, 2026, to ask the Court to be appointed to lead the case. The complaint asserts claims under Sections 10(b) and 20(a) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 on behalf of investors in Ardent Health securities. The class action is pending in the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Tennessee. It is captioned Postiwala v. Ardent Health, Inc., et al., No. 3:26-cv-00022.

Why is Ardent Health Being Sued for Securities Fraud?

Ardent Health and its affiliates operate acute care hospitals and other healthcare facilities. A critical aspect of Ardent Health’s operations is the collection of accounts receivable and the framework by which Ardent Health determines the collectability of such accounts. According to the lawsuit, Ardent Health stated that it employed an active monitoring process to determine the collectability of its accounts receivable, and that this process included “detailed reviews of historical collections” as a “primary source of information.”

As alleged, in truth, Ardent Health did not primarily rely on “detailed reviews of historical collections” in determining collectability of accounts receivable, but instead “utilized a 180-day cliff at which time an account became fully reserved.” This allowed Ardent Health to report higher amounts of accounts receivable during the Class Period, and delay recognizing losses on uncollectable accounts. The lawsuit alleges that Ardent Health’s purported misrepresentations are a violation of the federal securities laws.

Why did Ardent Health’s Stock Drop?

On November 12, 2025, after market hours, Ardent Health revealed it had completed “hindsight evaluations of historical collection trends” that resulted in a $43 million decrease in revenue for the quarter. Ardent Health also revealed that it increased its professional liability reserves by $54 million because of “adverse prior period claim developments” resulting from a set of claims between 2019 and 2022 “as well as consideration of broader industry trends.”

This news caused the price of Ardent Health stock to drop $4.75 per share, or more than 33%, from a closing price of $14.05 per share on November 12, 2025, to $9.30 per share on November 13, 2025.

Click here for more information: https://www.bfalaw.com/cases/ardent-health-inc-class-action-lawsuit.

What Can You Do?

If you invested in Ardent Health, you may have legal options and are encouraged to submit your information to the firm.

All representation is on a contingency fee basis; there is no cost to you. Shareholders are not responsible for any court costs or expenses of litigation. The firm will seek court approval for any potential fees and expenses.

Submit your information by visiting:

https://www.bfalaw.com/cases/ardent-health-inc-class-action-lawsuit

Or contact:
Adam McCall
[email protected]
212.789.3619

Why Bleichmar Fonti & Auld LLP?

BFA is a leading international law firm representing plaintiffs in securities class actions and shareholder litigation. It has been named a top plaintiff law firm by Chambers USA, The Legal 500, and ISS SCAS, and its attorneys have been named “Elite Trial Lawyers” by the National Law Journal, “Litigation Stars” by Benchmark Litigation, among the top “500 Leading Plaintiff Financial Lawyers” by Lawdragon, “Titans of the Plaintiffs’ Bar” by Law360 and “SuperLawyers” by Thomson Reuters. Among its recent notable successes, BFA recovered over $900 million in value from Tesla, Inc.’s Board of Directors, as well as $420 million from Teva Pharmaceutical Ind. Ltd.

For more information about BFA and its attorneys, please visit https://www.bfalaw.com.

https://www.bfalaw.com/cases/ardent-health-inc-class-action-lawsuit

Attorney advertising. Past results do not guarantee future outcomes.

Microsoft’s (NASDAQ: MSFT) rough start to 2026 may be easing as seasonality performance suggests the equity is on the verge of turning around heading into March.

In this context, seasonal trends suggest the coming weeks could offer a favorable window for investors considering Microsoft shares, with historical data indicating strong performance in March and April.

As of press time, MSFT stock was trading at $400, having plunged more than 17% year to date.

MSFT YTD stock price chart. Source: Finbold Now, the 26-year seasonality chart tracking Microsoft’s monthly performance shows that March and April consistently rank among the company’s strongest months.

According to insights from charting platform TrendSpider, March has delivered gains 65% of the time, with an average return of 2.1%, while April has posted an even higher 69% win rate and an average gain of 2.3%. The data places both months well above the 50% threshold that typically separates bullish from neutral seasonality trends.

MSFT seasonality chart. Source: TrendSpider Notably, February tends to be weaker, recording just a 33% positive rate. That softer performance has often been followed by a rebound into March and sustained strength through April, reinforcing the idea of a seasonal shift in momentum as the second quarter approaches.

Beyond the win rates, the mean change line rises into March and remains elevated through April. 

Wall Street bullish on MSFT stock  This outlook is supported by bullish sentiment from a segment of Wall Street analysts. On TipRanks, Microsoft holds a ‘Strong Buy’ consensus based on 36 recent reviews. The 12-month average price target stands at $593.38, implying potential upside of 47.86%. 

Of the 36 analysts, 32 recommend buying, four suggest holding, and none advise selling. The highest target is $678, while the lowest forecast is $392.

MSFT 12-month stock price prediction. Source: TipRanks Overall, Microsoft has faced headwinds in early 2026, with the stock pulling back after reaching all-time highs between $541 and $555 in October 2025. The correction reflects investor concerns over heavy AI-related capital spending and signs of moderating cloud growth.

Still, fiscal second-quarter results released in late January were strong, where revenue rose 17% year over year to $81.3 billion, while adjusted earnings per share came in at $4.14, beating expectations. 

The Microsoft Cloud segment surpassed $50 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time, growing 26%, with Azure up 39% (38% in constant currency). Guidance suggested Azure growth could stabilize at 37%–38% in constant currency, a moderation from prior peaks that contributed to post-earnings volatility.

Despite short-term concerns around AI spending returns, cloud competition, and potential disruption to legacy products such as Office, Microsoft’s entrenched enterprise position and expanding AI integration continue to underpin a bullish long-term outlook for many investors.

Listen on the go! A daily podcast of Wall Street Breakfast will be available by 8:00 a.m.

Worried about AI stock prices being too high? Give Starbucks a look, its latest results show promising signs of a turnaround.

Are you worried about an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble? You're not alone if you are. Fears abound in the media that AI stocks are going through the same cycle internet stocks did during the dot-com boom and crash in the late 90s and early 2000s.

AI stocks have generated incredible returns over the past three years but it's always a good idea to hedge your bets.

And the business I want to talk about today is a consumer discretionary company has absolutely nothing to do with AI, so it ought to make a solid hedge against it and allow you to profit from what seems to be the company's recovery from two years of struggle.

Image source: Getty Images.

Seattle's best If you remember the early 2000s, then I'm certain you recall jokes about new Starbucks (SBUX 2.42%) locations opening everywhere. There's a lot of truth behind the jokes, between 1999 and 2009 Starbucks exploded from 2,498 stores to 16,680. That's roughly 1,400 new locations a year or almost four per day.

But over the past two years, Starbucks has had a rough go of things, with stagnant and declining sales. As the S&P 500 surged over 75% in the last five years, Starbucks is only up about 2% from where it was in 2021. Over the last year, it has tumbled 11.5%.

Things got so bad that the company replaced former CEO Laxman Narasimhan with Brian Niccol in late 2024. Since then, he seems to have started turning the company around.

As of its latest results for Q1 of its fiscal 2026 (reported Jan. 28, 2026), Starbucks has seen genuine sales growth for the first time in eight quarters. Over the past month, the stock has recovered by almost 11% and things are looking up for the Seattle-based company.

I don't think Starbucks requires much explanation. It operates a chain of cafe restaurants across the country. But under Brian Niccol's tenure, the company has reoriented itself back to being a "third place" between work and home rather than the grab-and-go sort of coffee joint it was becoming for years.

Though, admittedly, COVID-19 restrictions forced that shift for Starbucks and most other restaurants and cafes independent of anything company leadership wanted to do. Either way, the company is planning to renovate 10% of its U.S. stores to have comfier chairs, couches, and more power outlets to encourage an extended stay.

The best part is that strategy seems to be starting to pay off and it has seen Starbucks rally in the days since its latest earnings release.

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A return to form? For Q1 of Starbucks' fiscal 2026, it saw a 3% increase in comparable transactions per store which spurred 4% global sales growth, breaking an eight-quarter streak in the doldrums and signaling upward momentum for the first time in two years. And the company was able to open 128 new stores in the quarter bringing its total to 41,118 worldwide with 52% company-operated and 48% franchised.

Consolidated net revenue grew 6% to $9.9 billion in the quarter. However, the company's operating margin fell 640 basis points to 41.3% and earnings per share (EPS) fell 62%.

It was the company's international operations that saw some of the best results with its total net revenue from those locations surging 10.3% and its operating income from them growing 19.2%.

In all, the results were a mixed bag with more good signs than bad. Is it perfect? No. But it is very promising and I think it's reason enough to give Starbucks another look if it fell off your radar in the past couple of years.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Timothy Morano Feb 15, 2026 10:26

AAVE trades at $129.03 with neutral RSI at 48.60. Technical analysis suggests potential upside to $135-140 range within 4-6 weeks, though bearish MACD signals caution for short-term traders.

AAVE Price Prediction Summary • Short-term target (1 week): $132-135 • Medium-term forecast (1 month): $125-140 range
• Bullish breakout level: $135.18 • Critical support: $122.64

What Crypto Analysts Are Saying About Aave While specific analyst predictions are limited for the current period, on-chain data from major platforms suggests mixed sentiment around AAVE's current price action. According to technical data from exchanges, the token is experiencing consolidation after recent volatility, with trading volume remaining steady at approximately $14.9 million over the past 24 hours.

Market data indicates that institutional interest in DeFi protocols like Aave continues to drive longer-term adoption, though short-term price movements remain heavily influenced by broader cryptocurrency market sentiment and technical trading patterns.

AAVE Technical Analysis Breakdown The current AAVE price prediction relies heavily on several key technical indicators showing mixed signals. At $129.03, AAVE sits comfortably above its 7-day and 20-day simple moving averages ($117.26 and $124.88 respectively), indicating short-term bullish momentum despite recent consolidation.

The RSI reading of 48.60 places AAVE in neutral territory, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. This neutral positioning often precedes significant price movements in either direction, making the next few trading sessions critical for determining trend direction.

The MACD histogram at 0.0000 indicates bearish momentum, with the MACD line (-8.9463) matching the signal line exactly. This convergence often signals potential trend changes, though the negative values suggest underlying bearish pressure remains present.

Bollinger Bands analysis shows AAVE trading at 0.57 position between the bands, with the upper band at $156.27 and lower band at $93.48. This positioning suggests room for upward movement before reaching overbought territory.

The Stochastic oscillator presents a more bullish picture, with %K at 92.57 indicating strong upward momentum, though this reading also suggests the token may be approaching overbought levels in the short term.

Aave Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case Bullish Scenario The Aave forecast turns optimistic if AAVE breaks above the immediate resistance at $132.10. A successful break of this level would likely target the strong resistance at $135.18, representing approximately 5% upside from current levels.

Beyond $135.18, the next major target aligns with the Bollinger Band upper limit around $156, though reaching this level would require significant volume and broader market support. The bullish case strengthens if AAVE can maintain above the 20-day SMA of $124.88 while building volume on any upward moves.

Technical confirmation for the bullish scenario would include RSI breaking above 60, MACD histogram turning positive, and sustained trading above $132 for multiple sessions.

Bearish Scenario The bearish AAVE price prediction scenario activates if support at $125.83 fails to hold. A break below this level would likely test the strong support at $122.64, representing potential downside of approximately 5%.

More concerning would be a break below the 7-day SMA at $117.26, which could signal a return to lower trading ranges and test the psychological $100 level. The current MACD negative reading supports this bearish potential, especially if broader cryptocurrency markets face headwinds.

Risk factors include the significant gap between current price and longer-term moving averages (50-day SMA at $147.52 and 200-day SMA at $220.06), indicating AAVE remains well below its longer-term trend.

Should You Buy AAVE? Entry Strategy Based on current technical levels, the optimal entry strategy for AAVE involves waiting for clear directional confirmation. Conservative buyers should consider entries near the $125.83 support level with stop-losses placed below $122.64.

More aggressive traders might consider buying any dip toward $128.91 (pivot point) with targets at $132.10 and $135.18. However, the mixed technical signals suggest position sizing should remain modest until clearer trends emerge.

Risk management remains crucial given AAVE's daily ATR of $10.69, indicating significant volatility potential. Traders should avoid overleveraging and maintain strict stop-loss discipline given the current technical uncertainty.

Conclusion The AAVE price prediction for the coming weeks suggests cautious optimism with upside potential to the $135-140 range, contingent on breaking immediate resistance levels. While technical indicators show mixed signals, the neutral RSI and consolidation pattern suggest AAVE may be preparing for its next significant move.

Investors should monitor the $132.10 resistance break as a key catalyst for the bullish scenario, while remaining aware that failure to hold $125.83 support could trigger deeper retracement. The Aave forecast remains constructive for patient investors, though short-term traders should exercise caution given current market conditions.

This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before investing.

Image source: Shutterstock

aave price analysis aave price prediction

4 mins mins

Prediction markets should shift to hedging, says Vitalik ButerinPrediction markets are skewed toward short-term bets rather than real risk transfer. vitalik buterin argues their design should prioritize hedging household and business exposures over speculation.

A review of public commentary and coverage indicates his concerns focus on structural incentives. Without mechanisms to preserve yield on posted collateral, hedgers face a persistent cost-of-capital penalty that traders may ignore.

Why it matters: prediction markets hedging needs interest-bearing collateralThe missing feature is interest-bearing collateral that preserves yield while positions are open. According to the Block, Buterin views current designs as unattractive because participants forgo steady yields, around low single-digit APY on dollar assets, to take event exposure.

“Prediction markets are very unappealing for hedging because they fail to offer interest on collateral,” said Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum co-founder.

Treating these markets as risk-transfer infrastructure implies collateral should earn while locked, with transparent accrual and clear segregation of risk. Yale School of Management commentary has also warned that thin liquidity and manipulation risks can distort signals, which matter more when users are hedging rather than gambling.

BingX: a trusted exchange delivering real advantages for traders at every level.

U.S. event contracts face active scrutiny, which shapes what can list and how retail users participate. Stocktwits’ coverage notes rising U.S. regulatory attention, reinforcing the need for products framed as hedges for real-world exposures rather than wagers.

Business Insider has reported growing investor interest in event-risk markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, reflecting demand to hedge discrete outcomes within different U.S. regulatory pathways. The practical takeaway is that market design and compliance positioning will likely determine which platforms facilitate bona fide risk transfer.

At the time of writing, Gnosis (GNO) traded near $134.17 with 8.99% realized volatility, an RSI of 57.49, and 16 green days in the past 30. The 50- and 200-day simple moving averages stood around 132.24 and 129.14, respectively.

Blueprint: AI baskets and fiat-independent settlement for risk-transferButerin’s proposed direction reframes prediction venues as tools for stabilizing everyday costs and balance sheets. Blockonomi reported he outlined AI-driven baskets and fiat-independent mechanisms so end users can transfer risk without being captive to bank rails or local currency frictions.

Interest-bearing collateral and yield preservationA hedging-first design embeds interest-bearing collateral so users don’t surrender baseline yield to obtain coverage. Net cost then reflects only the event premium and basis risk, not the foregone return on cash-like assets.

Yield preservation requires auditable accrual and bankruptcy-remote segregation, so collateral income and event PnL are distinct. This structure improves capital efficiency and lowers the hurdle rate for households and firms to hedge.

AI-personalized baskets for expense hedgingAI can map a user’s expense profile to a diversified set of event contracts representing key risks: inflation, energy, policy, and regulatory outcomes. Blockonomi notes the aim is fiat-independent settlement and automated construction, so consumers receive tailored, composable protection.

Investing.com has highlighted that portfolios struggle with story-driven, discrete event risk, which these baskets directly target. Careful market selection, liquidity checks, and outcome definitions remain essential to avoid fragmented or illiquid exposures.

FAQ about prediction markets hedgingHow would interest-bearing collateral make prediction markets more attractive for hedging real-world risks?It preserves yield on posted collateral, turning the total cost into just the event premium instead of premium plus foregone interest.

Which platforms currently support event-risk hedging and how do they fit within U.S. CFTC regulation?Business Insider notes investors use venues like Kalshi and Polymarket; each aligns differently with U.S. CFTC oversight and permissible event contracts.

DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.

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Journalist

Posted: February 15, 2026

By mid-February 2026, Bitcoin [BTC] has entered a highly unstable phase, with sharp swings in price and mixed signals from the market.

Although Bitcoin has recovered to about $70,318, gaining 2.23% in one day, it is still down by 26% in the past month, showing how severe the recent drop has been.

This fall has pushed the Crypto Fear and Greed Index to 13, a level called “Extreme Fear,” which reflects strong panic among investors.

Despite this fear, Bitcoin is still dominating the crypto market, holding nearly 59% of the total market value.

Mixed Bitcoin dynamics At the same time, large investors are slowly returning.

After big money flowed out earlier in the week, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $15.1 million in new inflows on 13th February, suggesting that institutions may be buying again.

On the technical side, Bitcoin’s network is also changing. For the first time in years, both mining difficulty and hashrate are falling.

Source: Glassnode

This means some miners are shutting down because rising costs and lower prices are making it hard to stay profitable. This phase is often called miner capitulation.

Overall, the market is caught between fear from small investors and quiet buying from big players.

While short-term charts still show uncertainty, major Wall Street banks are now focusing on long-term buying rather than short-term price moves.

J.P. Morgan’s long-term bet Seeing the current market dynamics, J.P. Morgan has lowered Bitcoin’s estimated “price floor” (the cost to produce one Bitcoin) from $90,000 to $77,000.

This change happened mainly because mining difficulty fell by about 15%, many high-cost mining operations shut down, and severe winter storms in the U.S., especially in Texas, disrupted mining activity.

Yet, despite these challenges and adjustments, J.P. Morgan expects Bitcoin to reach $266,000 in 2026.

This confidence is based on hopes that the CLARITY Act will pass, making it easier for large institutions to invest in crypto.

This followed the bank’s building its own crypto systems. Through its Kinexys unit, it is expanding its digital dollar token and preparing to offer crypto custody services for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Additionally, Goldman Sachs, which once criticized Bitcoin, has now also added major digital assets to its portfolio. 

What does this mean for investors? All this is because the banks believe new regulations will make crypto safer and more attractive for large investors.

Interestingly, the Donald Trump administration is strongly supporting the CLARITY Act.

Patrick Witt, who works with the White House on digital assets, said the goal is to pass the law before the November 2026 midterm elections.

However, the bill is moving slowly in the Senate. 

Now, whether the CLARITY Act passes soon or later in 2026, crypto in the U.S. is moving away from a wild west phase and toward a more regulated, bank-supported system.

Final Summary Bitcoin is going through a major test phase, with high volatility and strong fear among small investors. Falling mining difficulty and hashrate point to miner capitulation, which often happens during major market resets.

TL;DR

Market Outlook: AXS shows mixed long‑term projections, ranging from consolidation phases to strong upside scenarios depending on sentiment and liquidity. Technical Models: Forecasts vary widely, with some predicting modest ranges while others outline substantial growth potential through 2032. Key Drivers: Adoption trends, ecosystem updates, and broader crypto cycles will ultimately shape AXS performance over the coming years.
Axie Infinity stands as one of the most recognizable names in blockchain gaming, blending digital ownership with strategic gameplay through its creature‑based battle system. Built on a play‑to‑earn foundation, the project became a landmark example of how Web3 mechanics can reshape user engagement. Its universe revolves around collectible creatures known as Axies, each represented as a unique NFT that players can breed, trade, and use in competitive modes. This structure helped Axie Infinity evolve from a niche experiment into a global gaming economy supported by an active community and a robust marketplace.

The Role of AXS Within the Network At the center of this ecosystem lies AXS, the governance and utility token that powers Axie Infinity’s economic framework. AXS enables players to participate in key decisions, access breeding mechanics, and engage with various in‑game and staking features. Its dual function as both a governance asset and a reward mechanism has positioned it as a critical component of the platform’s long‑term sustainability. As Axie Infinity continues refining its infrastructure and expanding its game modes, AXS remains the primary driver of value exchange, community incentives, and ecosystem growth.

Setting the Stage for Long‑Term Forecasts With ongoing updates, evolving tokenomics, and renewed interest in Web3 gaming, AXS has entered a phase where long‑term valuation models gain relevance. Market sentiment, adoption trends, and broader crypto cycles will all influence its trajectory over the coming years. With this context established, we can now examine how these elements may shape AXS performance across the 2026‑2032 period.

Axie Infinity (AXS) 2026 – 2032 Price Prediction 2026 Axie Infinity: Early‑Cycle Market Outlook Early projections for 2026 from CoinCodex suggest that the token could experience a relatively narrow trading corridor, with estimates placing its movement between $0.9755 and $1.58. This range points to an annual average near $1.25, a level that aligns with a modest recovery phase for the asset. If market conditions remain stable and user activity maintains a steady pace, this scenario could translate into a potential return on investment of 12.40%.

Youtubers Price Prediction for AXS A separate set of technical evaluations paints a more expansive picture, projecting a minimum valuation of around $1.71 and a possible peak of $3.27. Under this model, the average trading cost for the year is expected to hover close to $2.41, suggesting stronger momentum if broader crypto sentiment turns favorable.

Crypto4Light Market shared a video on his YouTube Channel where he analyzes AXS’ price action to determine whether or not the token can break past $40 in 2026.

2027 Axie Infinity: Mid‑Term Growth Expectations

Forecasts derived from prior‑year pricing patterns from Changelly suggest that the token may enter 2027 with a relatively contained valuation range. According to these projections, the asset could maintain a minimum level near $1.40, while potential upside may reach approximately $1.64. Under this scenario, the average trading value would sit close to $1.45, indicating a year shaped by gradual movement rather than aggressive volatility.

A more technical interpretation from market analysts points to a significantly wider performance band for 2027, outlining a minimum expectation of around $3.35 and a possible high of $6.87. With an estimated average trading cost of $4.91, this model suggests a stronger acceleration phase if broader market sentiment turns favorable.

2028 Axie Infinity: Adoption Trends and Price Momentum Early projections from DigitalCoinPrice for 2028 present an unusual setup, with some models suggesting the token could open the year near $0.0837 before stabilizing around $0.36. Although these figures appear disconnected from prior performance, they still represent a notable improvement compared to the previous cycle.

A separate technical outlook offers a far more expansive scenario, estimating a minimum valuation close to $7 and a potential peak reaching $13.59. Under this framework, the average trading level would likely settle near $9.94, pointing to a stronger momentum phase if macro conditions favor risk‑on assets.

2029 Axie Infinity: Evaluating Long‑Range Market Drivers

Forecast models from CoinDataFlow for 2029 indicate that the token could enter a phase of accelerated growth, with experimental projections suggesting a potential increase of 361.76% under favorable conditions. In this scenario, the asset may approach a peak near $6.46, while the lower boundary of expectations sits around $1.42.

A more technically grounded analysis outlines a significantly higher performance band, estimating a minimum valuation close to $13.79 and a possible high reaching $25.55. With an average trading level projected around $19.08, this model suggests a more assertive upward trajectory if macroeconomic conditions support risk‑oriented assets.

2030 Axie Infinity: Strategic Forecast for a Mature Ecosystem Projections for 2030 suggest that the token could face a period of notable contraction, with estimates placing its trading activity between $0.5924 and $0.9472. Under this model, the average annual price would settle near $0.7458, signaling a challenging phase for long‑term holders. A return on investment of ‑33.76% reflects a scenario where market sentiment may lean toward caution.

A more optimistic technical outlook, however, presents a sharply contrasting picture. Analysts project a minimum valuation of around $25.83 and a potential high reaching $45.95, with an average trading level of $34.95. This model implies that 2030 could also evolve into a year of renewed strength if risk‑on conditions return and ecosystem‑driven demand increases.

2031 Axie Infinity: Late‑Cycle Valuation Scenarios

Expectations for 2031 point toward a relatively contained trading range, with early forecasts suggesting the token may fluctuate between $8.89 and $10.18. Under this model, the average cost for the year would hover near $9.19, indicating a period of measured movement rather than aggressive expansion.

A different analytical perspective introduces a much wider performance band, projecting a minimum valuation of around $0.41 and a potential high reaching $11.35. Within this framework, the token is also expected to surpass $5.34, signaling the possibility of renewed upward pressure if market sentiment strengthens.

2032 Axie Infinity: Long‑Horizon Price Projection Overview Outlooks for 2032 suggest that Axie Infinity (AXS) could enter a phase of pronounced upward momentum, with experimental models pointing to a potential rise of 310.47% under the most favorable conditions. In this scenario, the asset may approach a high of $5.86, while the lower boundary of expectations sits around $1.80.

A more technically driven analysis presents a dramatically higher valuation spectrum, estimating a minimum level close to $79.94 and a potential peak reaching $133. With an average trading cost projected at around $104, this model implies a scenario where strong market participation and favorable macro conditions could fuel substantial appreciation.

Conclusion AXS price projections from 2026 to 2032 reveal a landscape shaped by shifting sentiment, evolving tokenomics, and contrasting analytical models. While some scenarios point to consolidation, others highlight strong upside potential. Ultimately, the token’s long‑term trajectory will depend on market conditions, ecosystem progress, and broader crypto cycles.

The Price Predictions published in this article are based on estimates made by industry professionals; they are not investment recommendations, and it should be understood that these predictions may not occur as described.

The content of this article should only be taken as a guide, and you should always carry out your own analysis before making any investment.

Grayscale Investments is moving ahead with its plans to turn its existing Aave-linked closed-end trust into an exchange-traded fund (ETF), filing a Form S-1 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday.

If approved, the fund would trade on the NYSE Arca, giving traditional investors easier access to the AAVE, the native token of the Aave protocol, through a regulated vehicle.

Aave is a decentralized lending platform on the Ethereum blockchain that offers automated cryptocurrency loans secured by other tokens you own as collateral. It also allows users to lend their crypto to earn interest.

Grayscale launched its Aave Trust in October 2024 as part of a broader expansion into altcoin-focused investment products. The fund currently manages just under $896,230 million in assets, with a net asset value per share of 11.52%.

Aave has become a widely used asset in investment products, featured in DeFi-focused index funds and standalone offerings such as the 21Shares Aave ETP and Global X Aave ETP, both traded in Europe.

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The planned Grayscale AAVE ETF would charge a 2.5% sponsor fee on NAV, payable in AAVE. Coinbase would provide the prime brokerage services, including AAVE custody and trade execution. 

The AAVE token hasn’t escaped prevailing market headwinds. The asset trades at $129.62, down 25.6% over the past 30 days and 80.5% off its all-time high of $661.69 in May 2021, CoinGecko data shows.

Grayscale isn’t alone in its push for an AAVE ETF. In December, Bitwise filed with the SEC to introduce 11 crypto strategy ETFs, covering tokens including AAVE.

If the S-1 clears regulatory hurdles, the AAVE ETF would become one of the first U.S.-listed products tracking a smart contract blockchain outside the crypto majors. That could signal a shift in how traditional finance allocates to digital assets, with token-specific infrastructure plays becoming part of diversified crypto investment strategies.