Market Signal Briefing

The cryptocurrency market is standing at a critical turning point where geopolitical fear and institutional optimism are colliding head-on. After weeks of uncertainty, investor sentiment appears to have reached exhaustion—not because of a lack of conviction, but due to months of global volatility wearing down market participants.

In his latest analysis, crypto strategist Lark Davis raises a question echoing across the industry: has the market finally reached its bottom, or is Bitcoin simply catching its breath before another correction? The answer may depend less on Bitcoin itself and more on the complex macroeconomic environment unfolding throughout 2026.

Geopolitics and oil: the Strait of uncertainty Global markets have dramatically shifted their focus. What only months ago revolved around artificial intelligence and Federal Reserve interest rate policy is now centered on a narrow maritime chokepoint in the Middle East: the Strait of Hormuz.

Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through this waterway each day, making it one of the most sensitive pressure points in the global energy system. Rising tensions between United States and Iran have fueled fears of supply disruptions and a potential resurgence in global inflation.

Yet market data tells a far less dramatic story than the narratives circulating on social media. Brent crude oil remains in the $84–$86 per barrel range, still far from the triple-digit levels that typically accompany true energy shocks.

This suggests that so-called “smart money” is not yet positioning for a systemic crisis. In this environment, Bitcoin once again behaves like a hybrid asset—sensitive to macroeconomic risk, but surprisingly resilient when market fear becomes excessive.

The institutional paradox: the silence of giants While retail investors appear increasingly nervous, institutional infrastructure around cryptocurrencies continues expanding quietly.

One of the most significant developments comes from Kraken, whose banking division has secured approval to access a Federal Reserve master account. This allows the firm to settle transactions directly through the Fedwire payment system without relying on intermediary banks. After a regulatory process lasting five years, it marks the first time a digital-asset institution has obtained such access.

The move reflects a broader trend unfolding on Wall Street. Financial giant Morgan Stanley recently filed documents with the SEC to launch a Bitcoin ETF that would use BNY Mellon and Coinbase as custodians.

The choice is significant. BNY Mellon safeguards more than $59 trillion in assets, dramatically reducing one of the largest barriers to institutional adoption: custody risk. For pension funds and large asset managers, this level of infrastructure represents a crucial bridge between the traditional financial system and the digital asset ecosystem.

In other words, while the market obsesses over short-term price movements, the foundations of long-term institutional adoption continue to strengthen.

Technical analysis: the short sellers’ trap From a derivatives perspective, the market structure is even more intriguing.

Throughout February and early March, negative funding rates in Bitcoin perpetual futures signaled heavy bearish positioning. In simple terms, traders betting against the price were paying long traders to maintain their positions.

Historically, such imbalances often precede sharp upside moves.

On March 5, exactly that scenario unfolded. Bitcoin briefly surged past $71,000, triggering the liquidation of more than $110 million in short positions within 24 hours. The cascade of forced closures created a classic short squeeze, confirming that extreme pessimism in the market may have been overstretched.

At the same time, sentiment indicators such as the Fear & Greed Index remain near 19, a level historically associated with capitulation phases that frequently precede significant rebounds.

The 14-month cycle: Bitcoin versus gold One of the more intriguing arguments in Davis’s analysis comes from the relationship between Bitcoin and gold.

Market studies examining the BTC/Gold ratio show a repeating pattern across multiple cycles: the market tends to reach a bottom approximately 14 months after its relative peak against gold.

This behavior appeared in 2014, 2018, and 2022—each time preceding major bull markets.

If the pattern repeats once again, the ratio’s peak recorded in late 2024 would place the potential market bottom around the current 2026 window. Under this framework, the next 6 to 18 months could represent the beginning of another expansion phase for Bitcoin.

Humanizing trading: surviving the market Beyond charts and metrics, Davis also offers a reminder that even experienced investors make costly mistakes.

He recalls how many traders were caught in the rise and fall of SPAC-era companies, including Virgin Galactic, where he personally experienced losses approaching 90% of his investment.

The lesson is simple yet critical: success in financial markets does not depend on being right all the time, but on managing risk and preserving capital.

Conclusion: patience amid the noise The current environment combines geopolitical tensions, energy uncertainty, and structural shifts in financial regulation.

Yet beneath the surface of market noise, a deeper transformation is taking place—the gradual institutionalization of Bitcoin.

While Middle East conflicts dominate headlines, banks, custodians, and asset managers continue building the infrastructure that could support the next bull cycle.

The final takeaway is clear: avoid FOMO, prioritize risk management, and maintain a long-term perspective. Geopolitical crises may be temporary, but the transformation of the global financial system could prove far more permanent.

Disclaimer: This article has been written for informational purposes only. It should not be taken as investment advice under any circumstances. Before making any investment in the crypto market, do your own research.

On 6 March 2026, the U.S. federal court allowed the Tether, Bitfinex Crypto Case to move forward as a class action. However, the investor’s case claims that both companies manipulated Bitcoin and Ethereum prices during the 2017 crypto boom using newly issued USDT tokens.

Tether, Bitfinex Crypto Case Moves ForwardA federal judge in New York approved class action status in an ongoing lawsuit against Tether and Bitfinex. The decision made by U.S. District Court Judge Katherine Polk Failla allowed thousands of investors to join the lawsuit instead of filing individual claims.

The judge divided the plaintiffs into two groups to manage the case more efficiently. One group represents investors who bought cryptocurrencies directly in the spot market, while the second group includes traders who used futures contracts.

Meanwhile, the judgment of this case does not determine whether the companies broke the law. However, it allows the case to move forward toward further legal proceedings.

Lawsuit Claims USDT Were Issued To Manipulate BTC & ETH PriceInvestors claim that large amounts of Tether (USDT) were issued between 2017 and 2019 without proper backing. According to the complaint, these tokens were allegedly used to buy Bitcoin and Ethereum, pushing prices higher & creating a market bubble.

The plaintiffs argue that the manipulation caused artificial price inflation during the historic 2017 bull run.

When the market later corrected, many investors suffered heavy losses. Some estimates suggest the alleged manipulation may have caused billions of dollars in damages across the crypto market.

Both Tether and Bitfinex have strongly denied the accusations. The companies say the lawsuit is based on incorrect assumptions and misunderstand how USDT issuance and trading activity work.

What’s Next in the Tether and Bitfinex Lawsuit?Now that the class action status is approved, the case will move to the next stage, where both sides will present evidence.

For now, the court is reviewing parts of the judge’s sealed opinion. Lawyers from both sides must submit their proposals by March 9. 

Meanwhile, any major ruling could affect future rules on stablecoin transparency and market practices.

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TLDR: Cango operated at 34.55 EH/s in February, running 30% below its 50 EH/s installed capacity Bitcoin hashprice dropped to the low-$30 range, squeezing miners with costs near $40/PH/s daily Cango sold 4,616 BTC in February — over ten times its monthly production — to cut loan exposure The asset-light Bitmain colocation model enabled fast scaling but left Cango exposed to high hosting fees Cango ran its Bitcoin mining fleet at 30% below installed capacity in February. The company’s average operating hashrate reached 34.55 EH/s against 50 EH/s of deployed capacity.

Industry hashprice has fallen below $40/PH/s per day and stayed largely in the low-$30 range. The firm attributed the output gap to fleet optimization and ongoing equipment relocation efforts.

Cango is renegotiating hosting agreements and migrating to lower-cost power regions to manage expenses.

Bitcoin miner Cango has temporarily taken about 30% of its mining capacity offline, reducing its average operating hashrate to 34.55 EH/s versus 50 EH/s deployed, as declining mining profitability pressures operations. The company said the move is part of efforts to optimize…

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) March 6, 2026

Fleet Restructuring Weighs on February Hashrate The shortfall between the company’s deployed and operating hashrate stems from temporary downtime during restructuring.

The firm is upgrading equipment and divesting certain rigs while renegotiating hosting contracts. These steps aim to reduce the cost exposure that has widened as hashprice falls. Moving to regions with lower electricity costs remains a core element of the plan.

Cango built its 50 EH/s capacity through an asset-light colocation model at Bitmain-operated sites. The setup involved purchasing large volumes of on-rack Antminer S19 XP machines from Bitmain.

That model allowed rapid scaling without constructing proprietary data centers. However, it exposed the company to hosting costs that are difficult to justify near breakeven revenue levels.

The fleet hashcost has historically hovered around $40/PH/s per day. With hashprice largely in the low-$30 range, that margin is now razor-thin. Addressing hosting fees through renegotiation and relocation has become a top operational priority.

The miner produced 454.83 BTC in February despite running well under its installed capacity. Fleet repositioning is expected to reduce operating costs and improve margins going forward.

Completing the renegotiation and relocation work will be critical to longer-term operational stability.

Cango Liquidates Over 4,600 BTC to Reduce Loan Exposure Cango moved aggressively to strengthen its balance sheet as market conditions deteriorated in February. The company sold a total of 4,616 BTC during the month, far exceeding its monthly production.

That figure is over ten times what the firm produced during the same period. The selling pressure was driven primarily by the need to reduce outstanding loan obligations.

During a market selloff in early February, the company force-liquidated reserves over a single weekend. The firm sold 4,451 BTC in those two days to reduce debt, per prior disclosures. That sale represented roughly 60% of its holdings at the time, as Bitcoin prices fell.

As of February 28, the company held 3,313.4 BTC on its balance sheet following the sales. The remaining reserves reflect what was left after the weekend liquidation and monthly production. Sustained margin pressure could lead to further reserve management decisions in the months ahead.

The broader mining sector continues to face strain as hashprice remains below $40/PH/s. The firm’s hosting cost exposure and forced reserve sales reflect the severity of current conditions.

Addressing fleet economics through relocation and contract renegotiation will determine the path to recovery.

Bitcoin (BTC) may be facing a significant correction after a key bearish technical signal emerged on the three-day chart, raising the possibility of a move toward the $36,000 level.

According to insights from TradingShot in a TradingView post on March 6, this outlook stems from the fact that the cryptocurrency has formed a death cross on the three-day timeframe.

Bitcoin price analysis. Source: TradingView Notably, the pattern occurs when the 50-period moving average (MA50) falls below the 200-period moving average (MA200). The signal historically appears during major bear cycles and has often preceded extended declines in the cryptocurrency’s price.

Based on historical data, each time this pattern has appeared since 2014 during a bear market phase, Bitcoin has continued to fall sharply after the crossover. 

During the 2022 market downturn and the 2018 crypto winter, the asset declined by slightly more than 52% after the signal formed. In the earlier 2014 cycle, the drop was even steeper, reaching approximately 57%.

The current setup shows the MA50 turning lower and crossing below the MA200, confirming the bearish crossover. Bitcoin is also trading beneath both trend lines after losing momentum near $70,000, a structure that historically signals weakening market strength.

Bitcoin next low target  If the pattern follows previous cycles, Bitcoin could see a similar decline. A roughly 52% drop from the crossover area would place the price near $36,000, aligning with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension that marked bottoms during the 2018 and 2022 bear markets.

Based on this historical behavior, analysts view the $40,000 to $36,000 range as a potential accumulation zone, with $40,000 aligning with the Fibonacci extension and $36,000 reflecting the typical post–death cross decline seen in prior cycles.

This bearish outlook comes after the cryptocurrency climbed to nearly $74,000 between March 4 and March 5, marking a one-month high and briefly boosting trader optimism. 

The move was driven by short squeezes, renewed inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, and perceived resilience amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. 

During the rally, Bitcoin also moved alongside a strengthening U.S. dollar, an unusual correlation that has emerged since late 2024.

However, the momentum quickly faded, with a pullback wiping out much of the week’s gains.

Bitcoin price analysis  At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was priced at $67,955, well below its 50-day SMA of $75,548 and significantly under the 200-day SMA at $96,080.

Bitcoin seven-day price chart. Source: Finbold Trading beneath both moving averages typically signals bearish market conditions and indicates that the broader trend remains under pressure.

Momentum indicators, however, paint a more balanced picture. Bitcoin’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 45.93, placing it firmly in neutral territory. The RSI measures the speed and magnitude of price movements on a scale from 0 to 100.

Bitcoin’s rebound on March 4 looked odd if you only watched it through the usual “risk assets are breaking” lens. Oil was jumping, shipping insurers were repricing war risk, and traders were treating the Strait of Hormuz like a live wire. All of the headlines had the cadence of a full-blown crisis.

However, Bitcoin climbed back into the same $70,000 zone it has been orbiting for weeks, despite seeing a notable drop the weekend before.

Two factors explain that move.

The first is a pretty straightforward macro influence. Whenever the Middle East starts seeing oil shocks, markets quickly price in higher energy costs, messier supply chains, and a whole other range of negative outcomes. Joint US and Israeli strikes on Iran and retaliatory attacks across the Gulf caused disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and led to a severe energy shock.

As threats around the Strait intensified, war risk insurance and freight rates spiked, leading to a quick surge in oil and gas prices.

The second factor is derivatives. While it's not the only cause of the recovery, it explains why BTC can drop on shock and then rebound into a familiar price band even while the market remains nervous. The biggest effect comes from options, where hedging flows can pull the price toward crowded strike zones.

The macro shock supplied the match, but the options market supplied the dry timber already stacked around $70,000.

The shock that hit everything first: oil, Hormuz, and the cost of moving fuelThe Strait of Hormuz is a critical transit chokepoint in the global oil and gas trade. Data from 2024 showed around 20 million barrels passed through the Strait each day, equal to about 20% of the entire global consumption of petroleum liquids. (eia.gov)

When conditions in that narrow channel deteriorate, the market quickly reprices logistics, insurance, and the practical ability to export.

Between Feb. 28 and March 4, the Iran war threw the oil market into one of its biggest shocks in decades. The strikes and retaliation that followed threatened exports from the world's most important oil-producing region.

As traffic through the strait collapsed, shipping costs soared, and insurers were pulling cover and widening risk zones, with some shipping companies even diverting around the Cape of Good Hope.

Oil is the lifeblood of the global economy, and oil prices bleed into everything else. It affects everything from transport costs and airline economics to heating costs, food logistics, and inflation expectations.

So, when oil prices spike because the world's most important transit route is threatened, investors ask the same questions across markets: where does the risk go now?

Why Bitcoin sold first, then bounced while nerves stayed highBitcoin’s first move in a macro shock often looks like a simple set of liquidations. Blaming it on liquidations isn't surprising, given that Bitcoin trades 24/7, in size, and with fewer friction points than many other instruments. So when traders want to cut exposure quickly, they sell what they can sell quickly.

And part of that is certainly true. Bitcoin dropped after the weekend strikes and saw just under $1 billion liquidated between Feb. 28 and March 1.

That's the macro narrative: when shock hits, BTC sells quickly and in size.

But the missing piece of the puzzle is why it rebounded faster than everything else and kept pulling toward the same zone that has mattered for weeks. That is where the options market steps in.

The $70,000 area is a crowded intersection in optionsOptions come with a lot of Greek letters and dense terminology, so they tend to fall down the ladder of importance in times of macroeconomic shocks. But crypto options, and Bitcoin options in particular, have become so large that they have their own gravitational pull.

Large institutions now carry options exposure so large that even the slightest daily price movements force them to hedge.

Gamma measures how quickly an option’s sensitivity changes as the price moves. When gamma is high, small moves in Bitcoin can force larger hedge adjustments. That kind of trading can add speed and amplify short-term swings.

The peak gamma area for options expiring on March 5 and March 6 was around $71,000, with an elevated band from about $70,500 to $73,000. That's the zone where hedging sensitivity peaks.

Inside it, the market can feel spring-loaded, and dips and rallies tend to travel faster because the hedging response scales up.

The strike data backs up the same point. CoinGlass data shows dense exposure between $70,000 and $75,000, so these two strikes are doing most of the work.

Chart showing the open interest for Bitcoin options on Deribit by strike price on Mar. 5, 2026 (Source: CoinGlass)At $70,000, open interest sits around 9.3k puts and 9.25k calls, roughly $1.32 billion in notional exposure. At $75,000, open interest sits around 17.36k calls and 9.41k puts, roughly $1.9 billion in notional. Those figures create a corridor where a lot of risk is anchored to a narrow set of prices.

You can think of it like traffic. A city has roads everywhere, but the congestion happens at chokepoints because many routes intersect there. The chokepoint exists because the map funnels activity through it, and strike clusters do the same thing: they funnel hedging flow through a small band of prices.

March 27 matters because deadlines concentrate behaviorLooking at expiries shows one date dwarfing the rest: March 27.

That expiry carries about 111.7k calls and 74.97k puts, around $13.27 billion in notional exposure.

Chart showing the open interest for Bitcoin options on Deribit by expiry on Mar. 5, 2026 (Source: CoinGlass)Total BTC options open interest also rose from about $32 billion in late February to about $36 to $37 billion in early March, which raises the influence of options-related flows during a volatile period.

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Large expiries concentrate behavior because time compresses and traders roll positions forward, forcing dealers manage risk more tightly. Hedging can intensify as the calendar moves closer to a large expiry.

That's why the magnetic effect of certain price points has often strengthened into expiry windows.

The closer the calendar gets to March 27, the more the strike corridor around $70,000 and $75,000 can act like a rail. Price still moves and headlines still matter, and the market also keeps bumping into the same concentrations of risk.

How oil ties to optionsThe oil shock supplied the volatility, and the options market shaped where the price traveled as the rebound took hold.

A clean sequence fits the window from Feb. 28 through March 4.

First, oil and shipping markets repriced risk quickly as Hormuz conditions worsened and export logistics tightened.

Second, Bitcoin sold in the first wave because it's liquid and always open, and because investors reduce exposure broadly when volatility rises. (fortune.com)

Third, as the selling faded and price began recovering, Bitcoin ran into a corridor where options exposure is dense between $70,000 and $75,000, with peak gamma around $71,000, where hedging sensitivity is highest. A rebound that reaches into that band can become more reactive because hedgers are forced to adjust more often.

Fourth, funding adds torque. CoinGlass data showed repeated negative funding spikes from late February into early March, each followed by rallies. That fits a market leaning short, because when price goes up, short covering adds buying pressure. That buying can push price into the strike corridor faster, and the high gamma band can amplify the move once price gets there.

Why the $70,000 corridor can keep showing up into late MarchA $13.27 billion expiry acts like an anchor. Big expiries pull trading activity toward strikes with heavy open interest, because that's where rolling and hedging are most concentrated. Strike data points to $70,000 and $75,000 as major nodes in that corridor.

At the same time, the macro backdrop stayed tense. Ongoing volatility keeps Bitcoin acting like a liquid release valve. It sells early in the shock and then rebounds into the places where derivatives positioning concentrates flows.

That's why $70,000 can keep showing up as a destination even when the headlines have nothing to do with crypto. The market keeps returning to the same area because that's where the risk sits today.

Three things to watch nextYou don't need to read an options chain to track whether the $70,000 corridor story still fits.

Watch where the biggest strike concentrations sit. If open interest goes higher, the corridor moves with it, and if it shifts lower, the corridor will follow.

Watch the calendar. March 27 is the biggest expiry we've seen in a while, and large expiries often reshape positioning when they pass because traders roll or close risk.

Watch the macro volatility tied to oil and shipping. The Hormuz situation pushed crude and shipping costs higher. (reuters.com) If that persists, Bitcoin is likely to keep trading as a fast, liquid asset that sells early and then rebounds into the derivatives zones that concentrate hedging.

An oil shock rattled markets, and Bitcoin dropped first and dropped fast because it's liquid. The rebound then flowed into a $70,000 to $75,000 corridor where options positioning, hedging sensitivity, and a large late-March expiry make price action more reactive around the same set of levels.

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Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai's new comp package comes with equity tied to Waymo's and Wing's performance Justin Sullivan/Getty Images 2026-03-07T05:03:38.099Z

Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai will get a new performance-based equity pay package worth up to $692M. The new package ties Pichai's compensation partly to the financial performance of Waymo and Wing. Waymo has expanded to 10 markets, marking significant growth for Alphabet's autonomous service. Alphabet's chief executive just got a new equity pay package that, for the first time, ties a chunk of his payout to Waymo, the company's robotaxi service.

In an SEC filing posted on Friday, the company awarded CEO Sundar Pichai a three-year equity cycle that could be worth up to $692 million if the CEO meets the board's performance targets.

Much of the package remains unchanged from the CEO's 2022 award, according to the filing. The new incentives revolve around the value of two of Alphabet's "Other Bets": Waymo and Wing Aviation, a drone delivery service.

According to the filing, Pichai could be awarded up to $260 million depending on the increase in Waymo's per-unit value over a three-year period, as determined by the compensation committee — essentially, the board's estimate of what a single Waymo equity unit is worth.

The company doesn't list specific operational milestones Pichai will have to reach. A spokesperson for Alphabet declined to comment.

In addition, the company granted the CEO Wing-linked equity units that could be worth up to $90 million, contingent on the company's per-unit value over the next three years.

Tying Pichai's compensation to Waymo and Wing is a signal that Alphabet no longer views the two entities as moonshot experiments but rather as assets representing valuable, scalable businesses

The board said in the filing that "incentivizing Mr. Pichai to focus his efforts on developing and scaling Alphabet's later stage Other Bets, such as Waymo and Wing," is in the best interests of Alphabet and its stakeholders.

Waymo, which began as a project inside Google's moonshot factory in 2009, has driven over 200 million autonomous miles to date. This year, the company expanded its commercial service to 10 markets, serving riders in Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Orlando.

Wing is another moonshot factory venture that began in 2012. The company, which provides last-mile drone delivery services, became an independent Alphabet subsidiary in 2018. Wing announced in January that it would expand to more than 270 Walmart stores by 2027.

Pichai maintains a base salary of $2 million, unchanged since 2020, and will be awarded performance stock units (PSUs) tied to Alphabet's total shareholder returns relative to the S&P 100. The max value of the PSUs could be worth up to $252 million.

There's also a time-based equity package that will award Pichai $84 million, provided he stays with the company for the next three years.

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Postal Realty is consolidating a fragmented market of USPS landlords, giving it a long runway for acquisitions. Recent acquisitions have been accretive because property yields remain above Postal Realty's blended cost of capital. The main risk is USPS network restructuring, which could eventually pressure renewals for some specialized properties.

Amarin (AMRN 0.78%) is a drug company that is in a particularly precarious position. This fact is highlighted by the company's recent move to restructure its operations in an effort to cut costs. And Vascepa, the one drug it has to sell, is already facing generic competition in the United States. Most investors would be better off with a larger drug company.

Amarin has some positives to offer Perhaps the most positive thing about Amarin is its balance sheet. The company is carrying no long-term debt, has a cash balance of nearly $135 million, and owns short-term investments worth just under $168 million. In short, it is in a very strong financial position and can likely sustain its business for years to come.

Image source: Getty Images.

Meanwhile, despite the headwinds Vascepa faces in the U.S. market, it is a revenue-generating product. In 2025, Amarin had product sales of nearly $183 million. And a restructuring effort in 2025 has helped the company reduce costs. Management believes the restructuring will help it to generate positive free cash flow in 2026. A pharmaceutical company with no debt and positive free cash flow would normally be hard to complain about.

I still wouldn't touch Amarin with a 10-foot pole For the most part, the good news ends there. The big risk is that the company's sales stood at $285 million two years ago. So there's been a material decline on the top line. The fact that its only drug has faced generic competition in the U.S. market has a lot to do with the revenue decline. With no other product to lean on, Amarin has little choice but to pull back on spending or its strong financial situation could quickly start to deteriorate.

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Essentially, the company is doing the right thing by trying to milk every dollar out of the only drug it has to sell. But it isn't working from a position of operational strength. The big risk is that the company's revenue declines continue, with the company simply shrinking its business along the way to sustain itself. That's not likely to lead to a good outcome for shareholders.

Go with a bigger drug company To be fair, the drug cycle that Amarin is dealing with is completely normal in the pharma sector. The problem is that the company has just one drug to sell. If it were a larger company with a broader drug portfolio, it would have a stronger foundation from which to work. If you are willing to take on the risk associated with Amarin, you'd likely be better off buying an out-of-favor drug maker like Pfizer (PFE +1.71%) instead.

Pfizer has patent expirations coming up and had a material GLP-1 drug setback. However, it has a broad portfolio of drugs, and management was able to quickly pivot and acquire a new GLP-1 drug candidate. Pfizer has proven, once again, that it can pivot as needed. Essentially, unlike Amarin, Pfizer is working from a position of strength.

Rocket Lab remains a speculative buy, with fair valuation and upside potential tied to long-term growth beyond 2030. Neutron rocket delays are manageable, with manufacturing fixes in place and R&D costs peaking in Q1 2026. Q4 2025 saw 16% sequential sales growth and margin expansion, with backlog at $1.85 billion and 65% from government customers.

International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference 2026 March 3, 2026 11:30 AM EST

Company Participants

Robert Thomas - Senior VP of IBM Software & Chief Commercial Officer

Conference Call Participants

Erik Woodring - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Presentation

Erik Woodring
Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Well, let's get started, guys. Thank you very much for joining us. Welcome to day 2 of the flagship TMT Conference. My name is Erik Woodring. I lead the U.S. IT hardware coverage here. I am delighted to be joined by Rob Thomas, IBM's Head of Software and Chief Commercial Officer. But before we get started, I just need to read this disclosure statement. I need to mention that important disclosures can be found at the Morgan Stanley research disclosure website at www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures. If you have any questions, please reach out to your Morgan Stanley sales representative.

So Rob, thank you very much for joining us today.

Robert Thomas
Senior VP of IBM Software & Chief Commercial Officer

Thanks for having me. Great to be with you.

Question-and-Answer Session

Erik Woodring
Morgan Stanley, Research Division

So I think the best place to start maybe is just better understand how to think about the key drivers of growth for IBM. So exiting 2025, 3 of your 4 software subsegments were growing double digits. Mainframe had a record year, helping to offset maybe more tepid growth in services. So taking a step back as we think over kind of the medium term and beyond, what are the key growth drivers as we think about the IBM model? And let's start from there.

Robert Thomas
Senior VP of IBM Software & Chief Commercial Officer

So maybe go back to 2020 when Arvind Krishna took over. He had the insight that we can be uniquely

Goldman Sachs is downgraded to a hold, reflecting technical chart patterns and market risks despite other strong fundamentals. GS maintains robust capital ratios, investment-grade ratings, and impressive dividend growth, supporting long-term resilience. Recent acquisitions drive growth potential, but integration risks and market volatility temper bullishness.

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SummaryBerkshire Hathaway portfolio shifts post-Buffett, with Greg Abel now overseeing equity holdings and notable Q4 trades in Chevron, Chubb, Domino's, and Amazon.Dividend dog analysis highlights Kraft Heinz and Sirius XM as top-yielding but riskier holdings due to negative one-year total returns.Analyst targets project 21.97% to 123.02% net gains for top Berkshire dividend stocks by March 2027, led by Diageo and Jefferies.Five of thirty-two BRK dividend dogs show negative free cash-flow margins, flagging caution for investors seeking sustainable payouts.This Berkshire/Buffett holdings list first appeared 2/17/26 on BKH’s SEC Form 13F. Kiplinger, YCharts, Investopedia, and Dogs of The Dow all track this BRK batch. Here is your update from 3/4/25 YCharts data.Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of The Dividend Dog Catcher get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios. Learn More »Galdric/iStock via Getty Images

Foreword Dan Burrows says in Kiplinger Investing:

"The Berkshire Hathaway portfolio is a diverse set of blue chips and, increasingly, lesser-known growth bets. Here's a look at every stock picked by Warren Buffett and his lieutenants.

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HomeEarnings AnalysisConsumer 

SummaryThe Gap remains a buy, with a compelling valuation, robust cash flow, and a strong balance sheet supporting its turnaround potential.GAP is executing a high-CapEx strategy in 2026 ($650M), investing in store formats, AI, tech, and supply chain, while maintaining healthy free cash flow.Shareholder returns were also lifted: a 6% dividend increase, new $1B buyback authorization, and ample liquidity with $2.62B in cash.Risks persist from macro headwinds and consumer weakness, but GAP’s valuation, financial resilience, and tariff mitigation strategies provide a solid margin of safety. JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images

Introduction The last time I covered The Gap (GAP), I highlighted their strong financials, attractive valuation, and resilient cash flow despite the ongoing macro headwinds, rating them a Buy.

With the stock falling following

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in GAP over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

The technology industry is currently investing massive amounts of capital into new data centers to support the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence and cloud-based services. Hyperscalers are spending $700 billion on capital expenditures this year to build out these data centers, creating a generational investment cycle in power generation and grid modernization.

For companies like Quanta Services (PWR 1.64%), Vertiv (VRT 3.13%), and Eaton (ETN 1.79%), this massive spending could be the beginning of a supercycle for their respective industries. These companies benefit from strong positions across infrastructure, power, and cooling solutions, with these trends providing a powerful tailwind going forward.

Image source: Getty Images.

Quanta Services has made strategic acquisitions to capitalize on the infrastructure boom Quanta Services provides turnkey infrastructure solutions that span the entire power delivery process, from constructing power generation facilities and high-voltage grid interconnections to the critical-path electrical systems inside the data centers. The company has positioned itself as a key partner for technology giants to help support this buildout.

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Quanta has made strategic investments to strengthen its position in this growing market. In 2024, it acquired Cupertino Electric for approximately $2 billion, adding specialized low-voltage electrical engineering and modularization services tailored to the technology sector. It followed this up last year by acquiring Dynamic Systems for approximately $1.5 billion, providing it with mechanical, plumbing, and process infrastructure for large-load facilities, including data centers and industrial facilities.

The hyperscaler data center boom is a massive tailwind, as seen in its project backlog (the total value of work contracted but not yet completed). By the end of last year, Quanta's backlog surged to $44 billion, a 27.5% increase in the past year. Goldman Sachs analyst Ati Modak sees these trends driving strong earnings per share (EPS) growth of 17% to 18% compounded annually over the next five years.

Vertiv's prefab data center solutions to speed up time to market Vertiv also provides data center infrastructure, including power management, cooling systems, integrated rack solutions, and related services such as maintenance. The robust investment from hyperscalers has led to unprecedented demand for Vertiv's products. In the fourth quarter, the company saw a staggering 252% year-over-year growth in organic orders. As a result, its total backlog more than doubled in one year, to a record $15.0 billion.

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Hyperscalers are prioritizing speed to market to bring AI capacity online while managing power needs. To meet this need, Vertiv provides prefabricated infrastructure, such as Vertiv OneCore and SmartRun. These modular solutions allow hyperscalers to deploy 12.5-megawatt building blocks that can scale up to massive 2-gigawatt sites, reducing on-site construction time and complexity.

Vertiv is scaling its operational capacity to meet this robust demand, and announced it would increase its capital expenditures from a historical average of 2 to 3% of sales to 3 to 4% of sales this year to support anticipated revenue growth. Looking forward, Vertiv projects its total organic sales will grow by roughly 28% in 2026, generating approximately $13.5 billion in revenue.

Mega projects are driving strong growth for Eaton Eaton is another supplier of power management and electrical components for data centers and industrial operators. The company is leaning into the robust demand for data centers, and last year it spent $9.5 billion to acquire Boyd Thermal, which specializes in liquid cooling systems needed to keep next-generation AI chips from overheating.

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The acquisition is part of Eaton's broader "chip-to-grid" strategy, an end-to-end framework for managing extreme power and thermal demands in next-generation data centers. The company has noted a massive surge in "mega projects" (those valued at over $1 billion) and a $3 billion pipeline in North America. Eaton management notes the company has an impressive win rate of about 40% on its megaproject bids.

In the fourth quarter, Eaton's data center orders in the Electrical Americas segment surged by approximately 200% year-over-year. Data center revenue grew by 40% in the quarter, helping push the Electrical Americas segment's total backlog to an all-time record of $13.2 billion (a 31% increase).

Looking ahead, Eaton expects some margin pressure as it front-loads costs to ramp up capacity. In the longer term, analysts project Eaton's earnings per share to grow at double-digit rates annually over the next several years.

Kodal Minerals PLC (AIM:KOD) CEO, Bernard Aylward, talked with Proactive about the company’s latest operational progress at the Bougouni Lithium Project in Mali, ongoing shipments to China, and the newly announced arbitration process relating to a $15 million payment connected to a 2024 agreement with the Mali government.

Aylward explained that Kodal Minerals PLC has entered arbitration following discussions with joint venture partner Hainan Mining Co. Ltd regarding an indemnity claim under the existing financing agreement. He stated that the parties hold “diametrically opposed views” and said the company is comfortable allowing a third party to reach a decision while discussions continue during the arbitration process.

Despite the dispute, Aylward emphasised that the underlying partnership remains strong, with both parties committed to advancing Bougouni, including planning for stage two development and a significant 2026 work programme involving drilling and engineering studies.

Operationally, Bougouni is performing well. The company recently completed its second shipment, receiving an initial 95% payment of just under US$24 million for nearly 20,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate. A third shipment is anticipated in late March or early April. Aylward stressed, “we’re selling into a very high price, lithium market, and our product is in strong demand,” noting that Hainan Mining is keen to secure as much product as possible.

He added that mining, processing, and logistics are progressing smoothly, with product being transported to port, shipped to China, and generating revenue.

Proactive: Bernard, very good to speak with you. You've announced you've entered arbitration over the $15 million payment to the government of Mali. This dates back to 2024. Can you tell us the latest?

Bernard Aylward: Good morning, Stephen. The announcement went out today clarifying that we have had several discussions between ourselves and Hainan Mining Co. Ltd relating to this indemnity claim from Hainan, relating to the MoU signed with the Mali government for the transfer of the mining licence to our mining company in Mali. Hainan has claimed an indemnity under our financing agreement.

Our position was that the indemnity did not apply in this situation. Our discussions haven't led to a resolution, and we are happy to see it go to a third party for a decision. We know the arbitration process can take a lengthy period, and we expect during this process to continue discussions with Hainan Mining regarding the indemnity claim.

Proactive: Kodal Mining UK (KMUK) is 51% owned by Hainan and 49% by Kodal. How has this dispute affected the relationship with your joint venture partner, and is the underlying partnership still strong?

Bernard Aylward: You see this in lots of situations where there are disputes within a joint venture, but the underlying partnership remains strong. Both parties are dedicated to the advancement of the Bougouni Lithium Project. We are working very hard to make sure the project operates at its best capacity.

At our recent board meeting, we discussed at length the project plan for the stage two development and the significant work programme for 2026, where we intend to continue drilling, engineering studies and planning. The partnership for the development and operation at Bougouni remains very strong. The arbitration reflects that we have two parties with diametrically opposed views, and we need a third party to help resolve that.

Proactive: Give us an update on what's happening on the ground at the Bougouni Lithium Project at the moment. Are shipments still continuing?

Bernard Aylward: On site, we are continuing with mining and processing. We are reaching nameplate production, although we were slightly short in January and February. The operation has been going very well. Blasting and mining has improved, and we are building up the ROM stockpile to stay ahead of the wet season.

We are trucking product to port. Our second shipment left in early February. We received the initial 95% payment of just under US$24 million for just under 20,000 tonnes loaded onto that vessel. It is expected in Singapore within the next week and then on to Hainan shortly after. That side of the business is going very well, and we anticipate a third shipment in late March or early April.

We are selling into a very high-price lithium market, and our product is in strong demand. Our partner Hainan Mining is very keen to take all the product it can get. At Bougouni, it is running well. We are transporting to port, shipping to China, receiving income and operating well.

Proactive: Bernard, I hope you'll continue to keep us updated with your progress. Thank you very much for taking the time today.

HomeStock IdeasLong IdeasTech 

SummarynLIGHT, Inc. has completed its pivot to aerospace and defense, with A&D now comprising 67% of FY25 revenue.LASR’s gross and operating margins have rebounded to five-year highs, driven by more profitable, stickier A&D contracts.The stock’s current 12x sales multiple prices in aggressive defense-tech growth, but guidance and sector tailwinds support further upside.I reiterate a Buy rating, though the margin of safety is reduced after a 600% rally and ongoing execution risks remain. Michele Ursi/iStock via Getty Images

The last time I covered nLIGHT, Inc. (LASR) was 12 months ago, and the stock is up nearly 600% in the period since then. I called it a tentative Buy, at the

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

TLDR: Fidelity data shows Bitcoin volatility hitting record lows even months after the 2025 price peak near $126,000. Public companies and ETFs now hold nearly 12% of Bitcoin supply, signaling major institutional accumulation. Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio has stayed near 2x realized value this cycle, far below peaks seen in past bull markets. Fidelity’s profit-to-volatility ratio has remained above 0.015 since 2023, marking the longest stability period. Bitcoin’s market behavior may be entering a new phase, according to recent research from Fidelity Digital Assets. 

The firm argues that long-standing boom-and-bust cycles could weaken as institutional demand reshapes the market. Data shows volatility hitting record lows even months after Bitcoin reached new price highs. 

The question now is whether the classic four-year Bitcoin cycle still defines the crypto market.

Fidelity Digital Assets just published a research report arguing Bitcoin's classic four-year boom-bust cycle is over.

Their core finding: Bitcoin's market cap hit $2.5 trillion at its October 2025 peak, but one-year realized volatility hit 17 new all-time lows in January 2026.… pic.twitter.com/PcLDPLqXkj

— TFTC (@TFTC21) March 6, 2026

Bitcoin Volatility Trends Challenge the Classic Four-Year Cycle Bitcoin reached a market capitalization near $2.5 trillion during its October 2025 peak. Prices climbed above $126,000 during that rally.

However, volatility moved in the opposite direction. One-year realized volatility recorded 17 new all-time lows in January 2026.

Source: Fidelity Digital Assets According to Fidelity Digital Assets research, this pattern differs sharply from previous cycles. Historically, volatility surged as Bitcoin approached market peaks.

The current trend suggests a shift toward a larger and more liquid market. Fidelity compared Bitcoin’s growth to large-cap technology companies reaching maturity.

The firm notes that Bitcoin’s market size has expanded rapidly across cycles. The asset is now twice as large as its 2021 peak valuation.

It also stands nearly ten times larger than the 2017 cycle peak. Compared with 2013, Bitcoin’s market capitalization has expanded more than 200-fold.

Fidelity’s data shows volatility began declining in late 2023. At the time, Bitcoin traded near $27,000 before starting its latest rally.

Institutional Demand Reshapes Bitcoin Market Structure Demand patterns have changed significantly as institutions enter the market. Public companies and exchange-traded products now hold a growing share of supply.

According to Fidelity Digital Assets, 49 public companies hold more than 1,000 Bitcoin each. Combined holdings exceed one million BTC.

Source: Fidelity Digital Assets That amount represents more than five percent of Bitcoin’s circulating supply. The cohort has steadily increased holdings since early 2020.

Exchange-traded products have accelerated institutional accumulation. Spot Bitcoin ETPs launched in the United States in January 2024.

By January 2026, those vehicles collectively held nearly 1.3 million Bitcoin. This equals roughly 6.4 percent of the circulating supply.

Fidelity reported that the leading Bitcoin ETF surpassed $75 billion in assets within two years. Gold’s GLD ETF required almost seven years to reach that milestone.

On-chain metrics also suggest a calmer market cycle. Bitcoin’s market value to realized value ratio has remained near two throughout the current bull market.

Earlier cycles saw sharper expansions. The ratio reached six during 2013 and four during both the 2017 and 2021 cycles.

Fidelity estimates that reaching a ratio of four again would imply a $4.5 trillion Bitcoin market cap. That level corresponds to roughly $225,000 per coin.

The firm also introduced a “Profit to Volatility Ratio” metric. It compares profitable addresses with realized volatility.

That ratio has remained above 0.015 since late 2023. Fidelity describes this period as the longest stretch of stability in Bitcoin’s history.

Journalist

Posted: March 7, 2026

Bitcoin [BTC] rallied as high as $74,050 on Wednesday, 04 March. However, it fell below the $70k support in the past 24 hours of trading. The move underscored that aggressive selling pressure, which drove BTC to $60k in February, has cooled slightly, but a broader market recovery was not yet in sight.

AMBCrypto reported that the Bull Score Index was near 10, signaling weak market sentiment. The Coinbase Premium Index, which had risen into positive territory in recent days, reverted to negative territory too.

Weak participants and sentiment hinted at limited conviction in the rally. This means that the current Bitcoin retracement could extend further south. Hence, the question is – How much further, and how soon?

Bitcoin under pressure yet again In a post on X, crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr noted that selling pressure from long-term holders might be on the rise once again.

Long-term holders are defined as the cohort of Bitcoin holders who have held their supply without moving it for at least 155 days.

At the same time, long-term holders remained profitable on average despite the 46% price drawdown since October. At the previous cycle’s bottom, long-term holders faced high losses as prices fell below their average cost basis.

At the time of writing, this cost basis was at $39.8k. And, a major price drop towards this level is still likely later in 2026.

The argument for a Bitcoin rally towards $83k Expect the volatility to remain high over the next month or two. The 30-day MVRV ratio reached local highs, showing that 30-day holders were, on average, nearly 8% in profits. Given the news developments recently, profit-taking might be entirely reasonable.

The 90-day and 180-day MVRV ratios were more interesting though. They had many similarities to what happened in December-January.

Back then, the 30-day MVRV kept jumping into small profit margins. The mid-January rally took the 90-day holders into profit (on average) as well. Thereafter, a strong retracement wave commenced as Bitcoin fell to $60k.

In the coming weeks, Bitcoin may surge towards $83k and even $89k to hunt short liquidations and lull the market into bullishness, before falling lower again. Traders can keep an eye on the 90-day MVRV metric and similarities to January.

The short-term Bitcoin outlook Another crypto analyst, Darkfost, pointed out that short-term holders (holders of BTC aged 155 days or younger) had sent a whopping 27.5k BTC to exchanges in profit. This profit-taking selling pressure likely led to the price drop below $70k.

The amount of STH BTC sent to exchanges at a profit was also among the highest seen in recent weeks. It is possible that fear and uncertainty in the coming days could drive prices below $68k.

Final Summary Long-term and short-term holders’ selling pressure saw Bitcoin lose its tenuous grip on the $70k round-number support. Short-term holders’ realized price was at $68k, and a bullish reaction from here might be a possibility over the next few days.

Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Just over 10,000 Bitcoin — out of nearly 20 million in circulation — sits in wallets actually exposed to a quantum attack.

That number comes from CoinShares, a crypto asset management firm, which found in February that only 10,230 coins are both vulnerable to quantum computing and tied to wallet addresses with publicly visible cryptographic keys.

At current prices, that amounts to close to $730 million — a sum the firm described as resembling a routine trade, not a market crisis.

A Steel Frame Takes Shape In Chicago The finding lands at an awkward moment. This week, PsiQuantum co-founder Peter Shadbolt posted a photo to X showing the Chicago construction site where his company is building what it calls the world’s first commercially useful quantum computer.

In six days, workers had erected 500 tons of steel. The structure will house a machine capable of running 1 million qubits — a unit of quantum computing power.

Scientists say that capacity is, in theory, sufficient to crack the type of encryption protecting Bitcoin wallets.

Time to build really big quantum computers. Five hundred tons of steel up in six days. Cryoplant delivery date breathing down our neck. Grateful to the many hundreds of people locked in to this mission pic.twitter.com/eqSwsESusK

— Pete Shadbolt (@PeteShadbolt) March 5, 2026

The company raised $1 billion for the project, announced in September, with chipmaker Nvidia as a key partner.

PsiQuantum says the facility is designed to support fault-tolerant quantum computing and serve as infrastructure for next-generation AI systems.

For context, the largest quantum computer currently operating at the California Institute of Technology runs on 6,100 qubits. A jump to 1 million represents a scale that has no precedent in the field.

What Would Actually Be At Risk Bitcoin’s encryption relies on 256-bit cryptographic keys. A preprint paper published last month put the number of qubits needed to break 2048-bit keys at around 100,000 — suggesting that a 1 million-qubit machine could, mathematically, do the job.

But experts have long noted that raw qubit count is only part of the equation. Error rates and system stability matter just as much.

BTCUSD trading at $68,470 on the 24-hour chart: TradingView Not all Bitcoin wallets face equal exposure. Coins held in addresses that have never made a transaction — known as unspent transaction outputs, or UTXOs — are considered most at risk, particularly those whose public keys have been exposed on the blockchain. Many of those wallets date back to Bitcoin’s earliest days.

Developers Are Already Working On A Fix Bitcoin developers have been debating how to respond. One option on the table is a hard fork — a fundamental change to the network’s code — to introduce post-quantum cryptography.

A co-author of BIP-360, a proposal aimed at making Bitcoin quantum-resistant, said that the upgrade could take as long as seven years to fully implement.

PsiQuantum, for its part, has said it has no intention of using its technology to attack Bitcoin. Co-founder Terry Rudolph made that point publicly at a Bitcoin quantum summit last July.

Experts in the field say a genuine quantum threat to Bitcoin is still at least a decade away.

For now, construction continues in Chicago — 500 tons of steel and counting.

Featured image from Unsplash+/Alex Shuper, chart from TradingView

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.

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Bitcoin is surging. Capital is fleeing Iran en masse, pushing the cryptocurrency’s price to heights not seen in months. On March 6, Owen Simonin and Alexandre Stachtchenko discussed this on “Les Pros des Cryptos” with Guillaume Sommerer.

Economic sanctions are hitting Iran hard. Iranian investors are moving their funds to Bitcoin to avoid financial restrictions that worsen each week. There’s real panic among capital holders there, who are seeking solutions to protect their money. Economic uncertainty in the country is driving everyone to look for alternatives. Bitcoin is becoming their digital refuge in the face of the plummeting Iranian rial. Exchange platforms are seeing a flood of new Iranian users every day.

No official comment from Iran yet.

Bitcoin has gained nearly 10% in a few days due to this. Demand is soaring from investors fleeing instability. International regulators are closely monitoring these capital movements, especially when they come from sanctioned regions. The impact on the global crypto market remains unclear, but volumes are increasing everywhere. Analysts believe this trend will continue in the coming weeks.

Owen Simonin says the capital outflow will heighten Bitcoin’s volatility. According to him, Iranian fund movements are not new, but their recent scale is alarming. “This could influence market sentiment in the short term,” he said on the show. Traders are watching closely.

Alexandre Stachtchenko discusses the infrastructure used for these transfers. Exchange platforms based in Turkey or the United Arab Emirates play a crucial role, he says. “These platforms facilitate cross-border transactions and allow Iranian investors to convert their assets more easily,” he explains. The system bypasses traditional sanctions.

And volumes are skyrocketing on these platforms. BitOasis in Dubai reports a 25% increase in Bitcoin transactions over two weeks. This shows the direct impact of the Iranian situation on the regional crypto market. The figures speak for themselves. More on this topic: Bitcoin rises amid iranian tensions shaking.

On March 5, Whale Alert reported a massive transaction. A wallet linked to an Iranian institution moved $100 million in Bitcoin to an unknown address. Analysts monitoring capital flows from sanctioned regions were immediately alerted. It’s a huge amount for a single transaction.

Tether is also seeing increased use among Iranian users. Paolo Ardoino, Tether’s CTO, stated: “The company closely monitors these transactions to ensure compliance with international regulations.” Even stablecoins are affected by this movement.

Binance reacted quickly. On March 4, the world’s largest exchange platform temporarily suspended accounts linked to Iranian IP addresses. A Binance spokesperson said, “The platform is taking measures to prevent any violation of international laws.” Major players are moving to avoid problems.

Iran’s Minister of Economy, Ehsan Khandouzi, dodged questions. On March 6, during a press conference, he refused to comment directly on Bitcoin transactions. He merely stated that “the government is working on solutions to stabilize the national economy in the face of current challenges.” Not very convincing.

Chainalysis released a report on March 7 confirming everything. The blockchain analysis company noted a 15% increase in Bitcoin transactions from Iranian addresses in recent weeks. This coincides exactly with the tightening of international economic sanctions. Pressure is mounting on local investors to secure their assets. For more details, see Bitcoin Holders Who Wait Three Years.

The Iranian platform Nobitex is breaking records. CoinDesk reports that Bitcoin trading volume hit a record level on March 5, with over $50 million in transactions in one day. One of Iran’s largest platforms is seeing exploding interest from users wanting to convert their rial into crypto.

On March 8, the United States stepped up. The Treasury Department announced it is closely monitoring crypto transactions linked to Iran. A spokesperson said, “The United States is collaborating with international partners to identify and block illicit financial flows.” Efforts to contain the impact of sanctions through cryptos are intensifying.

Iranian financial institutions remain silent for now. Observers are waiting to see if measures will be taken to contain the capital flight. Bitcoin continues to react to these unexpected movements with volatility that is likely to persist. The market is waiting for an official response that could change the situation. But for now, the flows continue, and Bitcoin is benefiting.

Neighboring countries of Iran are also seeing their crypto volumes explode. Georgia and Armenia report a 40% increase in Bitcoin exchanges since early March, according to CryptoCompare data. Iranian investors are using these countries as gateways to access international markets.

The European Union is preparing its response. On March 9, Christine Lagarde mentioned during a meeting in Frankfurt “the need to strengthen the monitoring of digital assets in the current geopolitical context.” European central banks are coordinating their efforts to track these alternative financial flows that escape traditional sanctions.

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Bitcoin slips below $68,000 heading into the weekend as dollar posts steepest weekly gain in a yearMost majors gave back Friday's gains, with solana down 4%, ether falling 4.4%, and 43% of bitcoin's supply now sitting at a loss according to Glassnode data. Mar 7, 2026, 6:15 a.m.

Bitcoin BTC$67,952.80 fell to $67,960 by Saturday morning, down 3.4% over the past 24 hours and retreating sharply from the past week's high. The move fits what has become a recurring script in recent months, with late-week selling dragging prices toward the lower end of the range heading into Saturday.

Majors took the harder hit again. Ether dropped 4.4% to $1,974, solana fell 4% to $84.31, dogecoin lost 2.9% to $0.09, and BNB slid 2.6% to $627. XRP fell 2.2% to $1.37.

The weekly picture tells a more nuanced story though. Bitcoin is still up 3.6% over seven days. Ether has gained 2.6%. BNB added 2.1%. The mid-week surge absorbed the war shock and then some, even if Friday's pullback took the shine off.

Meanwhile, the dollar posted its steepest weekly gain in a year, strengthening as markets priced in higher energy costs, stickier inflation, and a Fed that has even less room to cut rates. That's a direct headwind for bitcoin and every other asset denominated against the dollar.

"As tensions escalated in the Middle East last week, investors moved quickly to the safety of the U.S. dollar, which strengthened as markets began pricing in higher energy prices and reignited inflation fears, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts," said Björn Schmidtke, CEO of Aurelion, in an email to CoinDesk.

The on-chain data paints a fragile picture beneath the surface. Glassnode data shows 43% of bitcoin's total market supply is now sitting at a loss. That's a significant overhang.

As bitcoin recovers, those underwater holders have an incentive to sell into any rally to break even, creating persistent resistance on the way up. It's one reason the push to $74,000 on Thursday couldn't hold. Every bounce toward higher prices runs into supply from people who've been waiting months to get out.

One bright spot came from stablecoin flows. Messari recorded a 415% jump in net stablecoin inflows to $1.7 billion over the week, with daily transfers up nearly 10%. That's potentially dry powder waiting to be deployed, and it suggests retail isn't entirely absent despite the fear-heavy sentiment. Whether that capital rotates into bitcoin or waits for lower prices is the question.

The war continues to set the tempo. The U.S.-Iran conflict showed no signs of resolution this week. Oil remains elevated. The Strait of Hormuz is still disrupted. And the macro backdrop of strong dollar, sticky inflation, and delayed rate cuts is the worst combination for risk assets.

Bitcoin's week looked impressive in headlines, touching $74,000 mid-week, but the round trip from $68,000 to $74,000 and back to $68,000 is just another lap of the range.

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Bitcoin could crash by another 30% as four-year cycle gains strength, investment firm says

32 minutes ago

Bitcoin is now firmly in a deep bear market and could fall another 30% in 2026, firm said.

What to know:

Bitcoin is now firmly in a deep bear market and could fall another 30% in 2026, according to CK Zheng of ZX Squared Capital. Zheng argues that predictable investor psychology reinforces bitcoin’s four-year boom-and-bust pattern, keeping it a speculative asset rather than a safe-haven like gold.

Bitcoin (BTC) began the week with a sharp rebound that briefly lifted the world’s largest cryptocurrency back toward the $74,000 mark on Wednesday for the first time in more than a month. However, as the week comes to a close, that momentum has faded, with BTC sliding back to roughly $68,260.

Even with the choppy price action, on-chain analytics firm Amber Data argues that the broader outlook for Bitcoin remains constructive. In its latest market report, the firm suggests that new all-time highs are still possible this year. 

Post-Liquidation Reset Amber Data describes Bitcoin as entering 2026 in an unusual position. The market, it says, has been “de-risked” following October’s liquidation event, which they assert flushed out excessive leverage from the market. 

In the report, they contend that open interest had climbed to “unsustainable levels,” the basis trade had become overcrowded, and funding rates reflected stretched positioning. 

When headlines surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff policies hit the market, the overleveraged structure was unable to withstand the selling pressure. The result was a cascade of liquidations that wiped out weak hands and reset positioning.

While painful, the correction served a purpose. Valuations have since normalized, leverage has been largely cleared from the system, and the Bitcoin market structure appears healthier, Amber Data noted. 

Yet the recovery remains fragile. Liquidity is still impaired, and the carry trade — once a major driver of activity — is no longer especially attractive. In Amber Data’s view, the market is now structurally sound but lacks a clear catalyst to define its next major move.

‘Muddle Through’ Phase  In its base case, which it assigns a 50% probability, Bitcoin trades between $90,000 and $120,000. This outcome envisions extended consolidation until a meaningful macro catalyst emerges. 

Under this “muddle through” scenario, conditions neither worsen dramatically nor improve significantly. Volatility compresses, enthusiasm cools, and both bullish breakout expectations and bearish collapse predictions are repeatedly frustrated. 

Early signs supporting this scenario would include basis annual percentage rates recovering to 8–10%, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows turning consistently positive, order book depth returning toward pre-crash conditions, and funding rates stabilizing in positive territory.

25% Chance Bitcoin Breakout To $180,000 Amber Data assigns a 25% probability to a more optimistic outcome, with Bitcoin climbing between $120,000 and $180,000. In this bull case, institutional participation accelerates alongside sovereign adoption, creating a feedback loop of expanding flows. 

The 1D chart shows BTC’s retracement back toward $68,000 on Friday. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com Early confirmation signals would include weekly Bitcoin ETF inflows exceeding $1 billion, basis rates expanding beyond 15% as leverage demand surges, and new accumulation cohorts appearing in HODL wave data, indicating fresh capital entering at scale.

Bear Case Targets $60,000 On the downside, Amber Data assigns a 20% probability to a bearish scenario in which Bitcoin trades between $60,000 and $80,000. This would occur if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate more sharply than currently expected and global markets shift decisively into risk-off mode. 

Warning signs would include sustained ETF outflows exceeding $1 billion per week, basis yields collapsing below 3%, widespread stablecoin redemptions signaling capital flight, and a potential test of the $80,000 ETF cost basis level. 

Finally, the firm outlines a 5% probability “volatility and chop” scenario, in which Bitcoin trades between $75,000 and $110,000 with no sustained directional trend. 

Indicators would include sharply fluctuating funding rates, repeated spikes and collapses in open interest as positions are liquidated on both sides, and inconsistent ETF flows alternating between inflows and outflows without a clear pattern.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin’s [BTC] retreat from the $126,000 peak in October 2025 triggered a notable shift in miner treasury behavior. As prices cooled down, public mining companies began accelerating transfers of BTC to exchanges.

At the same time, mining profitability tightened sharply as hashprice dropped below $30 per PH/s, compressing margins across the industry. Meanwhile, the post-halving reward remains 3.125 BTC per block, producing roughly 450 BTC of new supply daily. As operational costs rise, miners have been increasingly liquidating reserves to maintain cash flows.

Since October 2025, publicly listed miners have sold more than 15,000 BTC. Major transactions include Cango’s 4,451 BTC disposal, alongside large sales from Bitdeer, Riot Platforms, and Core Scientific. As a result, the total miner balance now stands near 1,780,305 BTC.

This shift carries structural implications. Miners represent the primary source of new Bitcoin supply. When treasury holdings decline, additional coins enter circulation, temporarily expanding sell-side liquidity and reinforcing downward pressure across the market.

CleanSpark signals miner treasury shift The recent wave of miner distribution became clearer when examining CleanSpark’s treasury activity in February. As profitability tightened across the mining sector, the company shifted towards immediate monetization of new production.

Across the sector, Glassnode reported a 30-day net position change of about -490 BTC, indicating miners have been collectively selling more coins than they produce.

Source: Glassnode

Within this environment, CleanSpark’s strategy mirrors the shift towards liquidity, as evidenced by their significant sales of mined BTC to generate cash flow amidst broader market trends.

The company mined 568 BTC in February, yet sold 553 BTC, generating roughly $36.6 million in proceeds. This near-total liquidation was in contrast with January, when CleanSpark sold 159 BTC out of 573 mined – Retaining a larger portion of production.

Source: CleanSpark

At the same time, total holdings declined from 13,513 BTC to 13,363 BTC, signaling a gradual treasury drawdown. Meanwhile, operational capacity expanded to roughly 50 EH/s, raising both production scale and capital requirements.

Together, these signals pointed to miners increasingly converting new issuance into liquidity, reinforcing the broader shift away from long-term accumulation.

Current miner selling echoes past capitulation phases Right now, Bitcoin miner behavior increasingly resembles late-stage capitulation patterns seen in previous cycles. The Miner Position Index (MPI) sat near -0.38 at press time, signaling reduced outflows relative to the yearly average.

In previous bear markets, capitulation appeared far more aggressive. During 2018 and 2022, the Miner Position Index (MPI) surged above 2 and even 3.5 – Reflecting intense miner selling before major recoveries.

Source: CryptoQuant

Meanwhile, structural signals are beginning to shift too.

The Hash Ribbon indicators flashed a buy signal in late February, as the 30-day hash rate moving average crossed above the 60-day. Similar crossovers followed deep drawdowns in 2019 and 2022, both preceding strong market rebounds.

However, the current cycle might just have new dynamics. Corporate miners are increasingly relying on hedging strategies and diversified revenue streams. As a result, the selling pressure is now more controlled, hinting at a gradual transition rather than the violent capitulation seen in previous cycles.

Final Summary Bitcoin [BTC] miner liquidations are increasing sell-side supply as profitability declines, adding pressure during the current market correction. Bitcoin miner behavior increasingly resembles late-cycle capitulation phases, where controlled distribution and structural signals historically precede market stabilization.