Market Signal Briefing

The Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD) is set to report its fourth quarter results on Wednesday, and analysts at Wedbush say the company is likely to post continued growth while facing mounting competitive pressures.

The firm maintained a ‘Neutral’ rating on the stock and lowered its 12-month price target to $23 from $40, reflecting concerns about competitors consolidating ad spend into closed ecosystems. Shares traded hands at about $24 on Tuesday.

Wedbush expects Q4 revenue of $841 million, up 14% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA of $376 million, in line with the consensus.

The analysts believe that The Trade Desk “should continue to see topline growth for the foreseeable future, driven by linear advertisers’ ongoing migration to connected TV (CTV) and other digital platforms, including audio; deep integration across the media and digital landscape, particularly outside of walled gardens, with expanding partnerships; and its content-agnostic approach.”

At the same time, Wedbush highlighted challenges from rival platforms that combine content, data, and commerce. “Competitor platforms that integrate content, data, and commerce into a single environment incentivize ad buyers to remain within that ecosystem rather than routing it through The Trade Desk,” the analysts wrote, noting Amazon’s partnerships with Disney, Roku, and Netflix as key competitive pressures.

Margins are expected to contract 250 basis points to 44.7% due to higher hosting costs and staffing pressures.

Wedbush added that while The Trade Desk benefits from the broader shift of advertising budgets online, “artificial intelligence is accelerating ad-spend consolidation into closed online ecosystems, where the platform owns identity, purchase data, and full-funnel attribution.”

The analysts noted that operating on the open internet “is structurally disadvantageous, where identity is fragmented, measurement is probabilistic, and conversion data is limited.”

Have you been searching for a stock that might be well-positioned to maintain its earnings-beat streak in its upcoming report? It is worth considering TopBuild (BLD - Free Report) , which belongs to the Zacks Building Products - Miscellaneous industry.

When looking at the last two reports, this insulation products company has recorded a strong streak of surpassing earnings estimates. The company has topped estimates by 3.71%, on average, in the last two quarters.

For the last reported quarter, TopBuild came out with earnings of $5.36 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.22 per share, representing a surprise of 2.68%. For the previous quarter, the company was expected to post earnings of $5.07 per share and it actually produced earnings of $5.31 per share, delivering a surprise of 4.73%.

Price and EPS Surprise

For TopBuild, estimates have been trending higher, thanks in part to this earnings surprise history. And when you look at the stock's positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction), it's a great indicator of a future earnings beat, especially when combined with its solid Zacks Rank.

Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

TopBuild has an Earnings ESP of +0.19% at the moment, suggesting that analysts have grown bullish on its near-term earnings potential. When you combine this positive Earnings ESP with the stock's Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), it shows that another beat is possibly around the corner. The company's next earnings report is expected to be released on February 26, 2026.

When the Earnings ESP comes up negative, investors should note that this will reduce the predictive power of the metric. But, a negative value is not indicative of a stock's earnings miss.

Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, but that may not be the sole basis for their stocks moving higher. On the other hand, some stocks may hold their ground even if they end up missing the consensus estimate.

Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Key Takeaways AXSM reported a Q4 loss of 71 cents, missing estimates even as revenues rose 65% to $196M.Auvelity sales climbed 68% Y/Y to $155.1M, with prescriptions up 42% year over year in Q425.Axsome's Sunosi sales rose 40% Y/Y, while newly launched Symbravo generated $4.1M in Q4. Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM - Free Report) incurred a loss of 71 cents per share in the fourth quarter of 2025, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 70 cents. The company had incurred a loss of 96 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.

Axsome’s total revenues surged 65% year over year to $196 million in the fourth quarter, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $193 million. The year-over-year increase in revenues can be primarily attributed to strong sales of Auvelity, which is approved for treating major depressive disorder (MDD) as well as other marketed drugs.

In the past six months, shares of Axsome have soared 50.3% compared with the industry’s rise of 22.8%.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

AXSM’s Q4 Earnings in DetailTotal revenues in the fourth quarter consisted of product revenues from Auvelity, Sunosi (solriamfetol) and Axsome’s newest drug, Symbravo (meloxicam and rizatriptan), as well as royalty and milestone revenues.

Net product revenues were $194.7 million in the quarter, reflecting an increase of 66% year over year. Royalty revenues totaled $1.3 million in the quarter, reflecting royalties on Sunosi’s sales in out-licensed territories.

Product revenues in the fourth quarter benefited from the strong sales uptake of lead marketed product, Auvelity and Sunosi, the latter being approved for treating narcolepsy.

Auvelity recorded sales of $155.1 million, up 68% from the year-ago quarter’s level. Sales of the drug beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $151 million.

Per Axsome, around 225,000 prescriptions were recorded for Auvelity in the fourth quarter, reflecting a sequential increase of 8% and a year-over-year increase of 42%.

Sunosi’s net product sales were $36.7 million in the fourth quarter, up 40% from the year-ago quarter’s level. Total prescriptions for Sunosi in the United States grew 11% year over year to 54,000. Sunosi's total prescriptions increased 3% on a sequential basis.

Axsome acquired U.S. rights to Sunosi from Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ - Free Report) in 2022.

Jazz had received approval for Sunosi as a treatment for narcolepsy in 2019.

Axsome out-licensed its ex-U.S. marketing rights of Sunosi to Pharmanovia in February 2023. JAZZ is entitled to receive a high single-digit royalty from AXSM on net sales of Sunosi in the United States.

Axsome’s newest drug, Symbravo, was launched in June in the United States. The drug recorded sales worth $4.1 million in the fourth quarter, up from $2.1 million recorded in the third quarter of 2025. The FDA approved Symbravo in January 2025 for the acute treatment of migraine with or without aura in adults.

Research and development expenses (including stock-based compensation) were $48.8 million, down 11.3% from the year-ago quarter’s level. The decrease was due to the completion of the label expansion studies of Sunosi and AXS-05 in Alzheimer’s disease agitation.

Selling, general and administrative expenses (including stock-based compensation) totaled $169.3 million, up 49.4% year over year. The increase was due to higher commercial activities for Auvelity and the ongoing launch activities for Symbravo and other costs.

As of Dec. 31, 2025, Axsome had cash and cash equivalents worth $322.9 million compared with $325.3 million as of Sept. 30, 2025. Management believes that its cash balance as of December-end is enough to fund future operations into cash flow positivity.

AXSM's Full-Year ResultsIn 2025, Axsome generated revenues of $638.5 million, which reflected 66% growth year over year.

For the same period, the company reported an adjusted loss of $3.68 per share, narrower than a loss of $5.99 in the year-ago period.

AXSM's Recent Pipeline UpdatesAxsome is evaluating Auvelity in several label expansion studies for other central nervous system (CNS) disorders.

The FDA recently accepted Axsome’s supplemental new drug application (“sNDA”) seeking approval for AXS-05 for the treatment of patients with Alzheimer’s disease agitation. With the FDA granting a priority review to the sNDA, a decision from the regulatory body is expected on April 30, 2026.

Axsome also plans to start a pivotal phase II/III study of AXS-05 for treating smoking cessation in the second quarter of 2026.

Other pipeline candidates include AXS-12 and AXS-14, which target multiple CNS indications.

AXS-12 is currently being evaluated in late-stage studies for the treatment of narcolepsy. Axsome recently announced that it has received formal pre-NDA meeting minutes from the FDA supporting a potential NDA submission for AXS-12 in narcolepsy. The company remains on track to submit the application later in the first quarter.

Last month, Axsome announced the initiation of the phase III FORWARD study with the dosing of the first patient, evaluating AXS-14 (esreboxetine) for the management of fibromyalgia.

AXSM's Label Expansion Studies on SolriamfetolAxsome is evaluating solriamfetol in separate phase III studies for treating attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and MDD.

The company plans to initiate separate phase III studies on solriamfetol for treating ADHD in children and adolescents in the first half of 2026.

In a separate press release, Axsome announced that it has initiated the phase III CLARITY study evaluating solriamfetol for the treatment of MDD patients with EDS symptoms.

The company is also evaluating solriamfetol in separate phase III studies for treating binge eating disorder (BED) and excessive sleepiness associated with shift work disorder (SWD).

Top-line data from the ENGAGE study evaluating solriamfetol for treating BED is expected in the second half of 2026. Top-line data from the SUSTAIN study evaluating solriamfetol for treating SWD in adults is expected in 2027.

AXSM's Zacks Rank & Stocks to ConsiderAxsome currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Some better-ranked stocks in the biotech sector are Harmony Biosciences (HRMY - Free Report) and Castle Biosciences (CSTL - Free Report) , each currently sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Over the past 60 days, estimates for Harmony Biosciences’ 2026 earnings per share have increased from $3.72 to $4.00. HRMY shares have fallen 28.5% in the past six months.

Harmony Biosciences’ earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed in the remaining two quarters, with the average earnings surprise being 7.20%.

Over the past 60 days, Castle Biosciences’ 2026 loss per share estimates have narrowed from $1.06 to 96 cents. CSTL shares have rallied 40.8% over the past six months.

Castle Biosciences’ earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in the remaining one, with the average surprise being 66.11%.

Key Takeaways ET gained 14.1% in three months, lagging its industry and sector despite a vast U.S. pipeline network.Energy Transfer gets nearly 90% of revenues from fees and expanded Transwestern capacity to 2.3 Bcf/d.ET trades at 10.1x EV/EBITDA, below industry, while ROE of 10.17% trails peers. Units of Energy Transfer LP (ET - Free Report) have rallied 14.1% in the past three months compared with the Zacks Oil and Gas - Production Pipeline - MLB industry’s growth of 16% and the Zacks Oil-Energy sector’s rally of 19.2%.

The oil and gas midstream firm owns a wide network of pipelines across the United States and is pursuing opportunities to serve increasing power loads from new demand centers across its network. However, an increase in operating costs and a decline in commodity prices have adversely impacted its earnings per unit in the past two reported quarters.

Price Performance (Three months)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Another firm with extensive midstream operations in the United States is Plains All American Pipeline (PAA - Free Report) . This firm also earns a major share of its revenues from fee-based contracts with customers. In the past three months, the firm has gained 21.2%, outperforming its industry and sector.

Given the current weakness in ET’s share price, will it be a correct choice to add this oil-energy stock to your portfolio? Let us delve deeper and find out the factors that can help investors decide whether it is a good entry point to add ET stock to their portfolio.

Tailwinds That Support ET’s OperationEnergy Transfer operates more than 140,000 miles of pipelines and related infrastructure spanning 44 U.S. states. Its diversified, well-balanced asset base supports consistent earnings, with oil and gas pipelines, gathering and processing systems, and storage facilities strategically located across major U.S. basins and fast-growing demand centers.

Energy Transfer has assets strategically located in key U.S. production basins and high-demand markets, supporting a resilient earnings base. Its diversified mix of oil and gas pipelines, gathering, and processing operations and storage facilities enables efficient service across a wide range of end markets.

Most of Energy Transfer’s revenues come from fee-based contracts backed by a strong customer base. Nearly 90% of its revenues are generated through fees for transportation and storage services, which significantly reduces the company’s exposure to commodity price volatility.

In December 2025, Energy Transfer expanded the transportation capacity of Transwestern Pipeline’s proposed Desert Southwest expansion to address rising customer demand. The mainline diameter will be increased from 42 inches to 48 inches, lifting capacity to as much as 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) and raising the project cost to nearly $5.6 billion. Backed by long-term contracts, the project is designed to support ongoing population growth and economic expansion across Arizona and New Mexico. Natural gas supplies will be sourced from Energy Transfer’s core assets in the Permian Basin.

Headwinds for Energy TransferEnergy Transfer relies on a number of major producers for its natural gas supply. If these or other producers reduce the volumes they deliver, the loss of one or more key suppliers could negatively affect the company’s financial performance.

ET’s Earnings Estimates Moving NorthThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for Energy Transfer’s 2026 and 20227 earnings per unit indicates an increase of 1.3% and 4.4% in the past 60 days.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Another firm, operating in the space with strong operations, is Delek Logistics Partners (DKL - Free Report) . The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Delek Logistics Partners’ 2026 and 2027 earnings per unit indicates a year-over-year decline of 0.27% and 1.78%, respectively, over the past 60 days.

Insiders Are Purchasing More ET UnitsET’s management and insiders own a sizeable chunk of its units. Management members and independent board members continue to purchase units of the firm.

Energy Transfer’s insiders and board members have regularly added to their holdings, signaling strong confidence in its future performance and steady growth trajectory. The firm’s insider ownership is estimated at about 10%, a level that surpasses many of its industry counterparts.

Insiders’ transactions are often considered a yardstick for judging the long-term financial health of the firm.

ET’s Cash Distribution RatesET’s current quarterly cash distribution rate is 33.5 cents per Energy Transfer common unit. Management has raised distribution rates 17 times in the past five years, and the current payout ratio is 110%.

Delek Logistics Partners raised distribution rates 20 times in the past five years, and the current payout ratio is 144%.

ET’s Units Are Trading at a DiscountEnergy Transfer units trade at a discount relative to the industry. The company’s trailing 12-month Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA ratio stands at 10.1x, below the industry average of 11.48x, indicating that it is currently undervalued compared with peers.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Plains All Pipeline is currently trading at an EV/EBITDA of 11.26x, a discount to its industry valuation.

ET Stock’s ROE is Lower Than the IndustryEnergy Transfer’s trailing 12-month return on equity is 10.17%, lower than the industry average of 13.28%. Return on equity, a profitability measure, reflects how effectively a company utilizes its shareholders’ funds to generate income.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Rounding UpEnergy Transfer, operating more than 140,000 miles of pipelines and related infrastructure, is well positioned to capitalize on growing U.S. oil, natural gas and NGL production. Backed by predominantly fee-based earnings and targeted acquisitions, the company is poised to deliver durable, long-term value to unitholders.

Those who have this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock in their portfolio can stay invested and enjoy the regular cash distribution. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

However, since the firm’s return on equity (ROE) lags behind the industry average, investors may want to wait for a more attractive entry point before considering a position.

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

The Dogecoin (DOGE) price has extended its sell-off in what might become a straight ride toward "max pain" for the top meme coin. The negative drawdown in the DOGE ecosystem is further validated with the crash in the futures market, as well as daily trading volume.

Dogecoin open interest fallsAccording to data from CoinGlass, Dogecoin open interest is down by over 7% in the past 24 hours. Per the data, a total of 11,110,000,000 Dogecoin has been committed to the futures market with a combined value of over $1.02 billion.

Dogecoin is highly connected to volatile conditions, accounting for the visible impact on the wide liquidity crunch it often experiences. The derivatives market around DOGE recorded a significant, but widely varied, shift on Binance and Bybit exchanges.

While Binance saw a dip in open interest, with 2 billion of the 11 billion committed by traders, Bybit saw a 4% jump. However, this uptick was not enough to offset the overall outlook, as Bybit controls only about 8% of the market.

DOGE open interest remains a widely watched metric on the market, as a boost might signal current trader sentiment. As it stands, the digital currency is trading at its lowest level year to date, with no signs of easing up.

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Dogecoin ETF makes no differenceIn actual terms, the meme coin’s price was changing hands at $0.0922, down by 4.17% in 24 hours. The performance on multiple time frames does not hint at a near-term positive outlook, as 30-day growth has fallen by over 24%.

Amid the push to find a price bottom, the impact of the Dogecoin ETF products in circulation comes into view. Despite the hype the products generated at launch, it has raised less than $10 million in institutional capital since inception.

Other notable fundamentals that can help Dogecoin recover are lacking. By implication, the DOGE price is now entirely reliant on its correlation with Bitcoin. That is, if the projected Bitcoin rebound is achieved, Dogecoin may see a corresponding positive ripple effect.

Is HYPE at risk of falling to $0?

HYPE, the native token of the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, has performed quite poorly lately, coinciding with the red wave sweeping through the entire crypto sector.

The token has been the subject of numerous price predictions, with some analysts envisioning additional declines in the short term.

Where is the Bottom? Currently, HYPE is worth roughly $26, representing an 11% weekly loss and a 56% collapse from its all-time high of almost $60 registered in mid-September last year.

The popular market observer Ali Martinez analyzed the asset’s recent performance and concluded that it is breaking out of a certain triangle formation, risking a further plunge to as low as $20. Sjuul | AltCryptoGems also envisioned a deeper pullback ahead.

“As you can see, price action started to slow down and is locally breaking down. Since we have a big cap below, I would not be surprised to see a bigger correction coming,” he added.

Nebraskangooner appears to be the biggest pessimist. He claimed HYPE has been rejected at a key resistance level, forecasting the eventual collapse to zero.

HYPE’s recent exchange netflow reinforces the bearish scenario. Over the last few days, inflows have slightly surpassed outflows, suggesting that some investors have moved away from self-custody and shifted their holdings to centralized platforms. This doesn’t necessarily mean they intend to cash out, but in many cases, such transfers do precede selling activity.

HYPE Exchange Netflow, Source: CoinGlass How About a Rebound? The optimists, who forecast that Hyperliquid’s native token could rally substantially in the near future, are just as vocal. X user HYPEconimst suggested that the possible path ahead is a sweep to $27.5, a reclaim of the $30.5 zone, and a pump to $45.5.

You may also like: Hyperliquid Records $2.6T Volume, Leaving Coinbase Behind: Artemis Ripple Announces Institutional Support for Hyperliquid These Popular Altcoins Lost the Most in the Last 24 Hours: What You Need to Know The analyst, who goes by the name ryandcrypto on the social media platform, argued that the asset’s price will not plunge below $20 “easily” and “would probably take BTC going well below $60K.”

For their part, TraderSZ envisioned significant volatility ahead and an eventual ascent above $36 in the coming months.

HYPE’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) also hints that a resurgence might be on the way. The technical analysis tool shows whether the asset is overbought or oversold by measuring the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. It runs from 0 to 100, where ratios around and below 30 indicate a rally could be incoming, while anything above 70 is considered bearish territory. As of this writing, the RSI stands just north of the bullish zone.

HYPE RSI, Source: TradingView Tags:

Ethereum is getting two headline signals at once, and they point in different directions.

On-chain trackers have flagged a burst of ETH sales linked to Vitalik Buterin, the network’s most recognizable figure.

At nearly the same time, the Ethereum Foundation began staking part of its treasury, positioning the move as a long-term shift in how it funds itself and supports the chain.

In a stronger market, both developments might register as routine. In today’s thin, risk-off tape, the contrast is the story. One headline looks like selling. The other looks like commitment.

As a result, ETH investors are left to decide which message matters more: one that could help return the digital asset above $2000, or one that could further pressure it towards $1000.

Buterin's ETH selling pace has turned into a market storyThe most useful way to frame Buterin-linked activity is cadence, not totals.

Buterin-linked wallets have been associated with roughly 3,765 ETH sold over about 2.5 days, and around 10,723 ETH sold since Feb. 2.

In dollar terms, that activity has been reported at about $7.1 million in the recent burst and roughly $21.7 million month-to-date, at an average sale price near $2,027.

Vitalik Buterin's February Ethereum Sales (Source: Onchain Lens)That acceleration is what traders react to. A few million dollars in sales is not, in itself, a destabilizing event for ETH.

However, a rising pace of selling can be, because it raises the risk of an ongoing overhang during a period when demand is already uncertain.

It also plays into a familiar crypto pattern. Crypto investors watch known wallets not just to estimate supply, but to infer confidence.

The inference is often shaky because wallets can move for reasons unrelated to market views, yet it still influences positioning. In risk-off conditions, that influence can be outsized.

There is also a scaling reality check that keeps the Buterin story in its lane.

The US spot ETH ETF has seen net outflows of nearly $3 billion in the last four months, according to SoSo Value data.

Ethereum ETF Outflows (Source: SoSo Value)These billions in outflows can translate into an ETH-equivalent number that is multiple times Buterin’s entire recent sale total.

When ETFs are net sellers, the ETF wrapper can dominate price action in a way that wallet-watching cannot.

That does not remove the effect of visible selling. It reframes it. In today’s market, the Buterin headline is more likely a sentiment catalyst than a supply shock.

The Foundation's staking move tries to change the funding opticsThe Ethereum Foundation’s staking rollout is a counter-signal that speaks to one of Ethereum’s most persistent internal controversies.

On Feb. 24, the Foundation stated:

“The Ethereum Foundation has begun staking a portion of its treasury, in line with its Treasury Policy announced last year. Today, the EF made a 2016 ETH deposit. Approximately 70,000 ETH will be staked with rewards directed back to the EF treasury.”

For years, a common criticism has been simple, “EF sells ETH to fund operations.” The framing turns treasury activity into a referendum on stewardship.

It also invites traders to treat every treasury movement as a market event, even when the amounts are small relative to liquidity.

Staking shifts the frame toward “EF earns protocol-native yield to fund operations.” That is closer to an endowment model than a periodic liquidation model.

It does not eliminate sales, because many costs are denominated in fiat. It can reduce the need for forced selling at the margin and offer a more systematic approach to treasury management.

The near-term math is modest. Against a staking base of roughly 37 million ETH (about 30% of supply), 70,000 ETH is not enough to change the staking market meaningfully.

But symbolically, it is a notable pivot.

At roughly 2.8% to 3.0% network staking yield, 70,000 ETH could generate about 2,000 ETH per year (in ETH terms) under normal conditions.

That yield is not a substitute for a budget, but it is a recurring stream that can make funding feel less ad hoc.

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The Foundation has also positioned the effort as a demonstration of best practices, emphasizing distributed signers, a multi-client approach, and resilience and client diversity.

That is partly technical and partly reputational. It is staking, and it also conveys the EF's desire to be seen as a steward.

Ethereum’s deeper tension, usage still matters, monetization looks softerThe Buterin-selling narrative lands harder because Ethereum is in a strange fundamental position.

Ethereum continues to dominate key settlement rails, especially stablecoins and tokenized assets. It remains central to how value moves across crypto markets.

Yet the L1 is capturing less direct fee revenue, which means the most visible monetization channel, fee burn, is less supportive.

Ethereum's Weekly Transactions (Source: Token Terminal)Ultra-low gas is good for users. However, it is less supportive for the “burn as value capture” story, because base-fee burn falls with fees.

When burn is weak, ETH’s supply story looks more like a conventional issuance asset, and attention shifts to alternative support beams, ETF flows, macro risk appetite, and staking yield.

Staking itself remains an important piece of the picture. Validator dashboards show a long entry queue, measured in millions of ETH and weeks of waiting time.

Ethereum Validator Queue (Source: ValidatorQueue)That points to continued interest in ETH as a yield-bearing asset, even as price sentiment wobbles.

There is a paradox here. Higher staking participation can tighten liquid float. A tighter float can amplify volatility during stress, because a smaller share of supply is freely circulating.

In a fear-driven market, narratives can become more self-reinforcing. A negative headline can prompt selling, selling can pressure price, and the price move can make the headline feel more important than it was on the way in.

Three scenarios traders are implicitly pricingThe cleanest way to frame what comes next is with scenarios that combine flows, fees, and optics.

Scenario 1: flow regime stabilizes (base case)If ETF outflows slow and macro conditions become more supportive, the market’s sensitivity to individual seller headlines tends to fade. In that environment, the EF staking shift helps by signaling long-run treasury discipline. Price can re-anchor around broader ETH themes, scaling, Layer 2 growth, and institutional access through ETFs.

Scenario 2: risk-off persists (bear case)If macro uncertainty and fund outflows continue, thin liquidity magnifies headlines. In that tape, the market is less concerned with whether Buterin’s sales are “big” and more concerned with whether the selling becomes a convenient proxy for broader doubt. Low-fee conditions keep burn weak, which gives bears a simple narrative hook, softer monetization plus bad optics.

Scenario 3: monetization returns (bull case)If fee pressure rebounds, whether from increased L1 usage, changes in value capture, or new demand drivers, ETH’s supply narrative improves. In that environment, staking yield becomes part of a stronger total-return story.

Notably, 21Shares has sketched longer-run ETH ranges from the high-$1,000s in bearish conditions to about $4,000 in bullish conditions, with flows and monetization doing much of the work in the spread.

None of these scenarios is determined by one person’s selling. But in a market that is already jumpy, the person attached to the wallet can still matter.

Mentioned in this articlePosted in

The crypto community has continued to face severe price corrections as bearish sentiment appears to be reaching peak levels. At such a sensitive time as this, large crypto transactions moving across blockchains have continued to catch the attention of market participants.

On Tuesday, Feb. 24, popular blockchain monitoring platform Whale Alert, which tracks down large cryptocurrency transfers, spotted a massive crypto transaction involving the fourth largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, XRP.

The data provided by the source revealed that the transfer, which has stirred discussions across the crypto market, saw a total of 95,935,471 XRP worth over $127 million move among two unknown wallets.

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XRP whale pulls off mystery move It is important to note that the nature of the transfer could not be confirmed as the sender and receiver of the large XRP transaction was not disclosed.

As such, speculation around the transaction has only sparked a selling narrative, with commentators suggesting that it could be Ripple selling or a major institution focused on XRP.

While investors have expressed resilience amid prolonged market volatility, the timing of the transfer has sparked more doubts and fears than hopes in the minds of investors, slowing optimism for a potential price resurgence.

The move was made while XRP was trading in deep red territory, showing a massive price decline of 5.36% over the last day. Notably, the asset is trading at $1.33 as of writing time, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Considering the prolonged downturn in the price of XRP, it appears that the large transfer spotted earlier has not in any way impacted the asset’s price movement positively, suggesting that it was a sell attempt.

TL;DR:

Canton completed the first cross-border intraday repo with tokenized gilts; the operation involved DTCC, Euroclear, and other major firms. The operation included the first exchange of tokenized gilts for deposits in a currency other than the pound sterling; terms were embedded in smart contracts. Digital Asset estimates only 10% of $300 trillion in global liquid assets is used as collateral today, and tokenization could change that. A consortium of global financial institutions executed the first cross-border intraday repurchase agreement using tokenized British government bonds on the Canton network, a blockchain designed exclusively for institutional operations. The operation represents the fourth transaction cycle completed by the working group driving this infrastructure.

The gilts market amounts to approximately $2 trillion. The incorporation of these instruments into the network represents the first time digital versions of these bonds have been used in a cross-border intraday repo. In addition, the round included the first cross-currency exchange, in which tokenized gilts were swapped against tokenized deposits denominated in a currency other than the pound sterling. Economic and risk terms, including interest rates and valuation haircuts, were embedded directly into Canton’s smart contracts, according to TreasurySpring, the firm that participated in designing the contractual logic.

Canton Delivers the Efficiency Traditional Markets Cannot Provide Members of this round include LSEG, Euroclear, DTCC, Tradeweb, Citadel Securities, Societe Generale, Cumberland DRW, Archax, Virtu Financial, IntellectEU, and TreasurySpring. Digital Asset, the company behind the Canton Network, structured the technical and operational framework of the initiative.

Kelly Mathieson, Chief Business Development Officer at Digital Asset, explained that there are approximately $300 trillion in high-quality liquid assets distributed globally, yet only between 10% and 11% of that total is used as collateral at any given time. The reason, according to Mathieson, is structural: traditional markets require planning days in advance to move assets across borders, constrained by batch settlement cycles and highly restrictive time windows.

Canton enables real-time and continuous ownership transfer, without relying on those windows. This allows financial firms to operate with greater efficiency in the use of their balance sheets. Brian Steele, Managing Director at DTCC, emphasized that collaboration between institutions is critical to establish industry standards and accelerate the adoption of digital assets without sacrificing the levels of security and scalability that characterize traditional markets. The working group plans to continue with new on-chain financing initiatives throughout 2026.

Ether (ETH) dipped below $1,900 during Asian trading hours on Tuesday, extending 30-day losses to 38% as President Donald Trump's tariffs soured investor sentiment.

Several market and technical indicators show that the ETH price may fall further before any recovery attempts by the bulls.

Key takeaways:

Ether trades below its realized price, which has historically marked bearish continuation phases. 

ETH price may not find a bottom until its 50-week moving average crosses below the 100-week average.

The Coinbase Premium at a 3.5-year low and persistent ETF outflows reflect strong selling by US traders.

Ether falls below its realized priceEther’s 38% drop over the last month has seen it fall below key support levels, including its realized price.

This is an onchain metric that recalculates the market value based on the price at which ETH was last moved.

Ether’s current market price of $1,830 is also below the average cost basis currently at $2,380, which is historically a bearish sign. 

When the realized price is above the spot price, it usually acts as resistance, leaving a significant portion of holders underwater.

Under these conditions, panic selling becomes more likely given the current tariff-driven fear and uncertainty gripping the cryptocurrency market.

Additionally, drops below the realized price have historically marked full capitulation phases, where investors lose all confidence and begin selling in large numbers. 

ETH realized price. Source: GlassnodeIn June 2022, Ether’s spot price fell below its realized price, preceding a 45% drop in the ETH price following the Terra Luna market crash. A similar scenario was witnessed in August 2018 before Ether dropped 77%.

The current setup also resembles previous setups, putting the ETH price at risk of a deeper correction. 

ETH price charts still favor the bearsHistory shows that ETH did not find a bottom until the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) crossed below the 100-week EMA. This type of cross has marked the end of every major bear market, including in 2022 and 2018, as shown in the chart below.

Currently at $3,017, the 50-week EMA is just above the 100-week EMA ($2,920), suggesting that the ETH/USD pair may fall further until these trendlines signal a potential bottom.

ETH/USD weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewTraders also spotted a bear flag pattern on the daily price chart after key support levels were lost.

Ether’s “bear flag is playing out right now,” said trader BitBull in a Monday X post, adding:

“The final target is $1,400-$1,500.” ETH/USD daily chart. Source: BitBullAs Cointelegraph reported, the ETH/USD pair could drop to as low as $1,100, driven by declining network activity and waning institutional demand. 

Ether’s Coinbase Premium returns to 2022 levels The Ethereum Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price difference between ETH on Coinbase and Binance, dropped to -0.11 on Feb. 6 before recovering to the current value of -0.09.

A deeply negative premium suggests that much of the selling is coming from the US, particularly retail traders. The last time the 30-day SMA was this negative was during the depths of the 2022 bear market.

Historically, extreme negative premiums often coincided with capitulation phases, as seen in 2022. The downside momentum will remain in place as long as US investors sell at a discount.

Ethereum Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuantAdditionally, institutional demand has also declined sharply, with US-based spot Ethereum ETFs recording outflows for five straight weeks, the longest streak since April 2025. 

Investors have withdrawn nearly $1.3 billion from these investment products over this period, with $123 million exiting the funds last week, according to data from SoSoValue.

Spot Ethereum ETFs flows chart. Source: SoSoValueTherefore, institutions are also sellers under current conditions, with more than $36.5 million in outflows from global Ethereum investment products last week, adding to Ether’s headwinds.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

As the crypto market navigates a volatile February 2026, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has not been immune to the "bloodbath" affecting risk assets. With the Ethereum price sliding below psychological support levels at $2,000 and currently hovering around $1,830, investors are understandably anxious.

The question "Can Ethereum price crash to $0?" has transitioned from a cynical troll to a genuine concern for those watching their portfolios shrink. However, to answer this, one must look beyond the candles on a chart and into the structural foundation of the world’s most active programmable blockchain.

Can ETH Price Really Hit Zero?Technically, any asset can go to zero if demand completely evaporates or the underlying protocol suffers a catastrophic, unrecoverable failure. For Ethereum, a "zero" scenario would require the total dissolution of its network of over 1.1 million active validators and the abandonment of the thousands of decentralized applications (dApps) that rely on its infrastructure. While market cycles can be brutal, the probability of a $0 valuation for a network securing billions in value remains statistically near-impossible under current conditions.

What Makes Ethereum Different?Ethereum is often confused with being "just another coin," but it is fundamentally a global, decentralized computer. Unlike Bitcoin, which serves primarily as digital gold or a store of value, Ethereum is a Layer 1 smart contract platform.

The Ethereum blockchain acts as the base layer for a massive economy. Ether (ETH) is the "gas" required to execute operations on this computer. As long as there is a single developer wanting to run a piece of code or a user wanting to transfer a stablecoin on-chain, ETH maintains a functional utility value that prevents it from reaching zero.

The Power of the Ethereum EcosystemThe true resilience of Ethereum lies in its dependency network. Countless multi-billion dollar projects are built directly on top of its architecture. If Ethereum were to fail, it would trigger a systemic collapse of the entire decentralized finance (DeFi) sector.

Successful Projects Dependent on Ethereum:Stablecoins: Major assets like USDC and USDT have the majority of their liquid supply on Ethereum.Layer 2 Solutions: Networks like Optimism, Arbitrum, and Starknet rely on Ethereum for settlement and security.Chainlink ($LINK): The industry-standard oracle network that provides data to smart contracts.Uniswap: The largest decentralized exchange that facilitates billions in monthly volume.Metamask: The leading crypto wallet, which recently integrated its own $mUSD stablecoin, continues to drive record development activity.According to data from Bloomberg, institutional interest in Ethereum ETFs, despite recent outflows, remains a significant backstop, with billions in assets under management (AUM) held by firms like BlackRock and Fidelity.

What Would a $0 Scenario Actually Entail?For Ethereum to hit $0, we would need to witness a "Black Swan" event far beyond a simple market crash. Such a scenario would likely involve:

A Critical Protocol Bug: A flaw in the "Fusaka" or "Glamsterdam" upgrades that permanently freezes all funds or allows for infinite minting.Global Regulatory Ban: A coordinated effort by G20 nations to make the possession or operation of Ethereum nodes a criminal offense.Total Network Centralization: If a single entity gained control over 51% of the staked $ETH, allowing them to censor or reverse transactions, destroying trust in the "decentralized" nature of the chain.Conclusion: Value Beyond the Price TagWhile the crypto market is currently suffering from macro-economic pressures and shifting liquidity, Ethereum's intrinsic value is tied to its role as the "settlement layer of the internet." With over 34 million ETH currently staked—representing roughly 28% of the supply—the network has never been more secure from a technical standpoint.

A dip to $1,300 is a technical possibility if bearish momentum continues, but a move to $0 ignores the reality of thousands of businesses and millions of users who now treat Ethereum as essential financial infrastructure.

TL;DR

Crypto ETFs saw $253 million exit on Feb. 23, as investors kept trimming Bitcoin and Ethereum exposure amid fragile sentiment overall today. Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $203.8 million led by IBIT ($116.4 million), while BITB ($43.6 million), FBTC ($27.9 million), ARKB and GBTC also saw withdrawals. Spot Ethereum ETFs shed $49.5 million, mostly from ETHA ($45.4 million), while Solana ETFs gained $8 million and XRP products recorded zero net flows. U.S.-listed crypto exchange-traded funds extended their withdrawal streak, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum products posting net redemptions. The key read is defensive positioning across the two largest ETF complexes. Combined exits totaled $253 million, signaling that investors are still trimming core exposure as digital-asset sentiment remains fragile. The day’s tape also showed a notable split: capital left BTC and ETH while smaller vehicles attracted selective demand. For allocators, the message is not panic, but disciplined de-risking and risk budgets until momentum and confidence improve. That keeps liquidity cautious and flows the signal.

Flow breakdown and positioning signals Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $203.8 million in net outflows on Feb. 23, one of the larger daily withdrawals this month. Redemptions were concentrated in the largest issuers, led by BlackRock’s IBIT. The fund saw $116.4 million exit, while Bitwise’s BITB lost $43.6 million and Fidelity’s FBTC shed $27.9 million. ARK’s ARKB posted $9.2 million in withdrawals and Grayscale’s GBTC saw $13.1 million leave. Other issuers were largely flat, leaving little offsetting demand to blunt the move. The flow profile points to continued institutional caution amid heightened volatility and risk-off positioning across digital assets this week.

Ethereum products also stayed in the red, with spot Ether ETFs posting $49.5 million in net outflows. ETHA drove most of the drawdown, showing that selling pressure is concentrated, not broad-based. BlackRock’s ETHA accounted for $45.4 million of redemptions, Fidelity’s FETH recorded $1.4 million in outflows, and VanEck’s ETHV saw $2.7 million exit. Other products were largely unchanged. The withdrawals came despite short-term stabilization in Ether’s price action, suggesting institutional flows have yet to turn decisively constructive. For strategy desks, that keeps the focus on capital preservation, incremental sizing, and waiting for clearer inflow confirmation.

Against the outflows, Solana-linked ETFs attracted $8 million in net inflows, extending a modest streak of positive demand. Selective allocation into smaller vehicles highlights rotation, not a broad risk-on rebound. Bitwise’s BSOL led with $6.3 million in inflows, Fidelity’s FSOL added $0.9 million, and Grayscale’s GSOL posted $0.8 million, while others were flat. Spot XRP ETF products recorded no net flows. The divergence underscores a defensive tilt, with investors withdrawing from BTC and ETH while testing alternative Layer-1 exposure as sentiment remains risk-off. Whether this persists may hinge on price stabilization and a sentiment recovery.

Bitcoin in recession global market crisis stock red price drop arrow down chart fall, Money losing moving economic inflation deflation investment loss crash, 3d rendering

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They say it’s a pathology when your mental health is negatively affected by a fall in your market assets. So I must be mad, because I get a horrible feeling in my gut when the market and my stocks dump. I bet I’m not alone. However, getting that feeling when an asset you don’t hold collapses must require a special ward in the asylum – and I need to get their phone number, because I’m looking at bitcoin. It looks ugly, and I feel it.

I’ve been calling this crash since the bubble hit $100,000, when I bailed – you can read a series of bitcoin articles from me calling it up and down here on Forbes. Now we are approaching the denouement of this cycle’s bitcoin crash.

This is what I see as the outcome. You will notice I won’t include a bull point of view, because in the end I believe that probability is not worth discussing until the next leg down is over. Remember, I posted this here in late January, so you can suspend your disbelief for a bit:

The bitcoin chart - suddenly swinging downwards

Credit: ADVFN

So rather than stretch out the agony, here is the map, if no miracle occurs:

My prediction for where bitcoin could go now

Credit: ADVFN

MORE FOR YOU

That is what I see unfolding. A bottom between $30,000 and $40,000.

However, in true modern internet argot, I can do worse.

Have a look at this. I had to redraw the axis to fit it in.

That’s a 4-leg crash, and I do not expect it. But if we hit a pause between $30,000 and $40,000, that is the precipice buyers will be looking at.

The bitcoin chart: the extreme outcome

Credit: ADVFN

If we get there, I’ll show you how to trade it on the long side – if you still hold the faith.

Personally, I’m over bitcoin as an investment. It was lovely to me, but now it’s just another asset. However, there are way to trade the next cycle, and if I call this leg right, I’ll show you the map of what to do then.

It shouldn’t be long this time before I’m either right or wrong about this next move.

Good luck, everybody.

Solana (SOL) slid back down to its lowest levels since 2023 this week as market sentiment soured, but on-chain activity held up, led by tokenized real-world assets.

Solana (SOL) slid back down to its lowest levels since 2023 this week as market sentiment soured, but on-chain activity held up, led by tokenized real-world assets.

The pullback tracked a broader risk-off tilt tied to renewed tariff uncertainty in the U.S. and mounting anxiety over how quickly artificial intelligence could disrupt legacy business models.

As of Feb. 24, SOL traded near $77, down nearly 9% on the week and about 70% below its 2025 peak, according to CoinMarketCap data.

SOL fell nearly 9% WoW. Source: CoinMarketCap

Core cryptocurrencies faced similar pressure, with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) shedding around 7.6% and 8.8%, respectively.

Solana-linked ecosystem tokens held up better, logging a roughly 5.6% WoW drop, the data shows.

On Friday, President Donald Trump vowed to restore U.S. import tariffs after the Supreme Court ruled his prior tariffs unlawful, setting up another burst of trade-policy noise for markets.

On Feb. 22, a viral Citrini Research report forecasting an AI-driven recession sparked a bout of panic selling, contributing to double-digit declines in legacy technology stocks such as IBM.

Derivatives Traders Brace for BearFunding rates for SOL perpetual futures are negative. Source: Laevitas

The sell-off has triggered a sharp repositioning in derivatives markets, with SOL futures open interest falling to less than a quarter of its September 2025 highs, according to data from Coinalyze.

Traders paid to hold bearish bets. Funding rates for SOL short positions rose above 7% on an annualized basis, with rates briefly spiking to nearly 50% on Feb. 23, per Laevitas data.

Even so, SOL exchange-traded product flows remained positive, signaling selective institutional demand even as investors pulled money from other crypto products.

On Feb. 19, U.S. spot Solana exchange-traded products took in about $2.4 million in net inflows even as crypto ETPs overall logged a fifth straight week of outflows, CoinShares data shows.

“Digital asset investment products remain in the doldrums, with modest outflows totalling US$288m,” CoinShares said.

RWAs Buoy On-Chain MetricsKamino said it surpassed $1B in total market size on Feb. 23. Source: X/Kamino

Institutional RWA activity accelerated, with Solana-based credit protocols posting fresh milestones.

On Feb. 23, Kamino, an RWA lending protocol on Solana, said it surpassed $1 billion in market size.

OnRe, another on-chain credit protocol, crossed $100 million in assets under management, Solana said in a Feb. 22 X post.

Tokenized equities also gained steam.

Seven Solana-based tokenized stocks reached $15 million in AUM on Feb. 19, according to the Solana-linked news account Capital Markets, which identified Tesla, Circle, NVIDIA, Alphabet, and Strategy as among the largest listed xStocks.

Solana also notched a sovereign-state adoption milestone.

On Feb. 24, Bhutan launched a digital nomad visa that costs $2,800 for 12 months and requires a $10,000 deposit into TER, a gold-backed token issued on Solana, according to posts by Timour Koster, a Solana-based founder.

“A sovereign nation is issuing visas backed by tokenized gold on Solana,” Solana said in a Feb. 24 post on X.

On Feb. 23, Solana Company tipped plans to build a low-latency infrastructure network across Asia to support staking, validation, and trading services for institutional clients, with product launches expected within 12–18 months.

By the NumbersTotal Solana Ecosystem Market Cap: $119.10B

Source: CoinMarketCap

Top 5 Solana Coins by Market Cap:

Solana (SOL): $43.77BChainLink (LINK): $5.80BWorld Liberty Financial (WLFI): $2.99BUniswap (UNI): $2.13BAave (AAVE): $1.75BSource: CoinMarketCap

Most Visited Solana Coins:

Solana (SOL)Pippin (PIPPIN)ChainLink (LINK)Official Trump (TRUMP)World Liberty Financial (WLFI)Source: CoinMarketCap

This article contains links to third-party websites or other content for information purposes only (“Third-Party Sites”). The Third-Party Sites are not under the control of CoinMarketCap, and CoinMarketCap is not responsible for the content of any Third-Party Site, including without limitation any link contained in a Third-Party Site, or any changes or updates to a Third-Party Site. CoinMarketCap is providing these links to you only as a convenience, and the inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, approval or recommendation by CoinMarketCap of the site or any association with its operators. This article is intended to be used and must be used for informational purposes only. It is important to do your own research and analysis before making any material decisions related to any of the products or services described. This article is not intended as, and shall not be construed as, financial advice. The views and opinions expressed in this article are the author’s [company’s] own and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinMarketCap.

XRP is currently trading without a clear bullish sentiment, but a few analysts are of the notion that the token is on the verge of something bigger than a standard bull cycle. 

A recent post on X by crypto commentator 24HRSCRYPTO predicts that what lies ahead for XRP may not resemble the typical 6-12 month surge seen in previous cycles. Instead, he believes a multi-year expansion phase could be unfolding, one based on liquidity and real-world utility.

XRP Is About To Change Forever At the time of writing, XRP is now stuck trading within a consolidation structure between $1.30 and $1.50. However, this hasn’t stopped bullish proponents from projecting bullish price targets for XRP all over social media. This is mostly due to ongoing developments across the XRP Ledger ecosystem and Ripple’s expanding institutional footprint, which are all giving long-term holders reasons to hold on to their bullish predictions.

According to 24HRSCRYPTO, prior XRP bull runs were pushed on by narrative momentum. This is actually visible in the 2017 and 2021 rallies, coinciding with speculative enthusiasm across the crypto sector, sending XRP to highs in a short period of time. Those moves were rapid, emotional, and heavily sentiment-driven by inflows from retail investors and individual whale investors.

The XRP ecosystem’s dynamics have changed since then, and according to 24HRSCRYPTO, the next XRP price cycle will be driven by structural integration. Instead of hype cycles, the focus is on XRP’s core design as a bridge asset for cross-border settlement. 

The expectation is that liquidity will start to flow across institutions that use XRP, and therefore, its price behavior will transition from volatile behavior to valuation tied more directly to usage. As networks scale, liquidity deepens, and real value moves on-chain, assets that fuel the system won’t behave like casino chips anymore. 

Ledger Developments And Institutional Positioning Recent upgrades and ecosystem milestones also support the infrastructure narrative. Developers and validators of the XRP Ledger are introducing features to improve institutional accessibility of XRP. The most recent feature is the launch of permissioned decentralized exchange functionality, which is designed to make on-chain activity more attractive to regulated banks and financial institutions.

Ripple, the company closely associated with XRP’s enterprise adoption strategy, has continued to position itself within the global payments and tokenization landscape. The company has expanded partnerships across financial institutions and has emphasized the tokenization of real-world assets as a key growth avenue. 

Some of these partnerships include a recent strategic partnership with a UAE-based digital bank as part of its effort to break into financial institutions in the Middle East. There are other instances of this, ranging from partnerships to develop tokenized versions of traditional funds on the XRP Ledger to acquisitions of financial companies, all of which are part of Ripple’s plans to expand its global footprint. These are all moves that support an infrastructure-driven outlook for XRP’s future price action.

Price drops with market weakness | Source: XRPUSDT on Tradingview.com Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

18h05 ▪ 4 min read ▪ by Ifeoluwa O.

Summarize this article with:

XRP is once again showing signs of strain as it trades around a key support zone near $1.33. The asset is hovering at this level, which now acts as immediate support, but the overall tone remains fragile. Short-term rebounds continue to face resistance, keeping sellers in control for now.

In brief XRP remains weak with a fragile tone as bearish patterns like a bear pennant and descending triangle suggest further declines. Key support levels lie around $1.22 and a potential drop below $1.00 could follow if selling intensifies. Large XRP holders are moving millions of tokens to exchanges, signaling rising selling pressure. Bearish Setup Persists Across XRP Timeframes On the two-day timeframe, XRP is shaping a structure that resembles a bear pennant. This setup usually follows a sharp drop, with price trading within a tightening channel marked by two sloping trendlines. Such formations often lead to another downward movement similar in size to the initial decline. For XRP, this pattern appeared after the strong fall toward $1.12. If the price slips past the lower edge of the pennant, it could move toward $0.80, representing a decline of nearly 40% from its current level.

The daily chart aligns with this cautious outlook. XRP continues to print lower highs and lower lows, reinforcing the prevailing downward trend. Price action remains beneath the 20-day moving average, while a descending resistance line steadily compresses the range. This setup resembles a descending triangle, a configuration commonly linked to bearish continuation if support fails.

XRP Price Chart Shows Bearish Breakdown Toward $1.00 Momentum indicators also reflect ongoing weakness, which is evident in several key measures:

Bollinger Bands are tightening, showing that volatility is shrinking while price remains near the lower band, pointing to ongoing downward pressure. The Relative Strength Index is hovering around 34, indicating weak momentum and a market approaching oversold conditions. Despite nearing oversold levels, the RSI has not yet signaled a clear reversal, suggesting that sellers still dominate in the short term. Key Levels in Focus Analyst BitGuru acknowledged the broader downtrend and pointed to the $1.22 zone as a strong support level. In his view, maintaining this area could allow for gradual stabilization and possibly open the door to a recovery phase.

From a technical standpoint, however, the immediate focus remains on the current $1.33 support, which sets the stage for possible next moves.

If the price falls below this level, it could move toward $1.22, marking the next significant support area. Should selling intensify further beyond $1.22, XRP could drop to $1.00 or even lower. On the upside, a recovery above $1.45 combined with a break of the descending resistance line would be needed to alter the current bearish outlook.
XRP Whale Transfers Signal Rising Selling Pressure While price action weakens, on-chain activity adds another layer of concern. Darkfost, a contributor at CryptoQuant, reported that more than 31 million XRP were transferred to Binance. Most of these transfers originated from the largest XRP holders. Wallets holding over 1 million XRP accounted for 14.5 million tokens. Those in the 100,000–1 million range moved 14.2 million XRP, while 10,000–100,000 XRP wallets transferred 2.9 million tokens, and smaller groups contributed relatively minor amounts.

XRP Exchange Inflows Spike as Whale Activity Surges on Binance Darkfost explained that these transfers represent potential sell-side pressure worth close to $45 million. Such sizeable inflows to an exchange often signal preparation for liquidation. If this wave of selling persists, XRP may find it difficult to stage a durable rebound in the near term, especially while technical indicators continue to lean bearish.

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Ifeoluwa O.

Ifeoluwa specializes in Web3 writing and marketing, with over 5 years of experience creating insightful and strategic content. Beyond this, he trades crypto and is skilled at conducting technical, fundamental, and on-chain analyses.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) returned to outflows on Monday, Feb. 23, with a $204 million exit, while ether funds shed $49 million. Solana ETFs attracted fresh capital, and XRP ETFs saw no trading activity. Bitcoin, Ether Slide as Solana Attracts $8 Million The new week opened with a sharp shift in tone.

Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when Evolus, Inc. (EOLS - Free Report) reports results for the quarter ended December 2025. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.

The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on March 3. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.06 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +500%.

Revenues are expected to be $89.42 million, up 13.3% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Evolus?For Evolus, the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +8.33%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #4.

So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Evolus will beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Evolus would post a loss of$0.19 per share when it actually produced a loss of -$0.14, delivering a surprise of +26.32%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates just once.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Evolus doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

An Industry Player's Expected ResultsPerrigo (PRGO - Free Report) , another stock in the Zacks Medical - Products industry, is expected to report earnings per share of $0.8 for the quarter ended December 2025. This estimate points to a year-over-year change of -14%. Revenues for the quarter are expected to be $1.1 billion, down 3.2% from the year-ago quarter.

The consensus EPS estimate for Perrigo has remained unchanged over the last 30 days. However, an equal Most Accurate Estimate has resulted in an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.

When combined with a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy), this Earnings ESP makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Perrigo will beat the consensus EPS estimate. Over the last four quarters, the company surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Capital Group International Core Equity ETF is rated 'Buy' for its strong outperformance versus peers and broad indices since inception. CGIC benefits from a valuation discount to US indices, active management flexibility, and a favorable geographic allocation, notably overweight Europe and underweight China. Key risks include potential US dollar strength and tariff policy clarity, both of which could reverse recent international equity outperformance.

The market expects Esperion Therapeutics (ESPR - Free Report) to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended December 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.

The earnings report might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis biopharmaceutical company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.23 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +330%.

Revenues are expected to be $160.58 million, up 132.4% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 58.82% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Esperion Therapeutics?For Esperion Therapeutics, the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +37.63%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.

So, this combination indicates that Esperion Therapeutics will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Esperion Therapeutics would post a loss of$0.09 per share when it actually produced a loss of -$0.16, delivering a surprise of -77.78%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Esperion Therapeutics appears a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

Expected Results of an Industry PlayerAnother stock from the Zacks Medical - Drugs industry, Harrow (HROW - Free Report) , is soon expected to post earnings of $0.4 per share for the quarter ended December 2025. This estimate indicates a year-over-year change of +60%. Revenues for the quarter are expected to be $88.8 million, up 32.9% from the year-ago quarter.

Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for Harrow has been revised 666.7% down to the current level. Nevertheless, the company now has an Earnings ESP of -0.42%, reflecting a lower Most Accurate Estimate.

When combined with a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell), this Earnings ESP makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Harrow will beat the consensus EPS estimate. Over the last four quarters, the company surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

AeroVironment (AVAV - Free Report) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended January 2026. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.

The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis maker of unmanned aircrafts is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.70 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +133.3%.

Revenues are expected to be $480.05 million, up 186.4% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 3.38% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for AeroVironment?For AeroVironment, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -9.13%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.

So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that AeroVironment will beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that AeroVironment would post earnings of $0.85 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.44, delivering a surprise of -48.24%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates just once.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

AeroVironment doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Fidelity National Information Services (FIS - Free Report) reported $2.81 billion in revenue for the quarter ended December 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 8.2%. EPS of $1.68 for the same period compares to $1.40 a year ago.

The reported revenue represents a surprise of +2.64% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.74 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being $1.69, the EPS surprise was -0.66%.

While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Street expectations to determine their next move, some key metrics always offer a more accurate picture of a company's financial health.

As these metrics influence top- and bottom-line performance, comparing them to the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated helps investors project a stock's price performance more accurately.

Here is how Fidelity National performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:

Revenue- Banking Solutions: $1.87 billion compared to the $1.83 billion average estimate based on seven analysts. The reported number represents a change of +8.7% year over year.Revenue- Capital Market Solutions: $883 million compared to the $874.74 million average estimate based on seven analysts. The reported number represents a change of +7.6% year over year.Revenue- Corporate and Other: $63 million versus $44.78 million estimated by six analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +3.3% change.Revenue- Total Recurring: $2.17 billion versus $2.18 billion estimated by two analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +7.3% change.View all Key Company Metrics for Fidelity National here>>>

Shares of Fidelity National have returned -19.7% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -1% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating that it could perform in line with the broader market in the near term.

Leonardo DRS, Inc. (DRS - Free Report) reported $1.06 billion in revenue for the quarter ended December 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 8.1%. EPS of $0.42 for the same period compares to $0.38 a year ago.

The reported revenue represents a surprise of +6.74% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $993.11 million. With the consensus EPS estimate being $0.37, the EPS surprise was +12.9%.

While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street expectations to determine their next course of action, some key metrics always provide a better insight into a company's underlying performance.

Since these metrics play a crucial role in driving the top- and bottom-line numbers, comparing them with the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated about them helps investors better project a stock's price performance.

Here is how Leonardo DRS, Inc. performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:

Revenue- IMS: $343 million compared to the $359.03 million average estimate based on three analysts. The reported number represents a change of +5.2% year over year.Revenue- ASC: $722 million compared to the $637.43 million average estimate based on three analysts. The reported number represents a change of +9.4% year over year.Adjusted EBITDA- IMS: $6 million versus the three-analyst average estimate of $54.62 million.Adjusted EBITDA- ASC: $152 million versus the three-analyst average estimate of $90.06 million.View all Key Company Metrics for Leonardo DRS, Inc. here>>>

Shares of Leonardo DRS, Inc. have returned -6.1% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -1% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), indicating that it could underperform the broader market in the near term.

A delivery cart loaded with a number of packages from Amazon stands on a sidewalk in New York City, New York, U.S., July 25, 2019. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

SummaryCompaniesAmazon allegedly pressures merchants to inflate pricesCalifornia AG says monitor needed to thwart bullyingTrial set for January 2027 in antitrust caseAmazon has said its practices benefit consumersFeb 24 (Reuters) - California asked a state judge on Tuesday to stop Amazon.com (AMZN.O), opens new tab from inflating prices for consumers through an alleged campaign to bully merchants not to sell goods more cheaply elsewhere.

The state's attorney general, Rob Bonta, sought a preliminary injunction in his 3-1/2-year-old antitrust lawsuit against Amazon, which also seeks to recoup ill-gotten profits.

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"Amazon’s goal is to insulate itself from price competition by preventing lower retail prices in the market," Bonta said in a heavily redacted filing in the California Superior Court in San Francisco. "Amazon tells vendors what prices it wants to see to maintain its own profitability."

Bonta said his office has uncovered "countless" interactions where Amazon, rivals and merchants agreed to fix prices to ensure that Amazon would not be undercut on websites such as eBay (EBAY.O), opens new tab, Target (TGT.N), opens new tab and Walmart (WMT.O), opens new tab.

He said Amazon and rivals, with merchants acting as intermediaries, often agreed to raise prices or make products temporarily unavailable, eliminating any need for price-matching.

Merchants that rejected Amazon's demands would be cut off or denied access to its "Buy Box," where shoppers can click "Add to Cart" or "Buy Now," Bonta said.

The Buy Box accounts for the vast majority of sales on Amazon's website.

"We welcome companies that succeed by offering better prices and better service," Bonta said in a statement. "What we have here is a greedy, behemoth corporation intentionally increasing prices in the marketplace to get richer and richer off the backs of consumers."

The proposed injunction would stop Amazon's alleged anticompetitive conduct while the case is pending, and a monitor would oversee Amazon's compliance.

Amazon has argued in court papers that its "procompetitive" agreements with merchants are legal, commonplace in the industry, and benefit consumers through increased product selection, appropriate product stocking and competitive prices.

A trial is scheduled for January 2027.

Reporting by Jonathan Stempel in New York Editing by Nick Zieminski

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

Despite being an actively managed fund with a "bottom-up" selection process, Principal Active High Yield ETF has consistently trailed passive benchmarks like HYG and JNK over the past year. YLD maintains a high-risk profile with roughly 20% allocation to CCC-rated credits and 40% to single-B names. At a 6.75% SEC yield, investors are not being sufficiently compensated for the underlying credit risk.