Market Signal Briefing

HONG KONG, CHINA - 2025/04/06: People walk past an advertisement feature Donald Trump with Bitcoin in Hong Kong. U.S. reciprocal tariffs sent shockwaves to global financial markets, with cryptocurrencies also experiencing declines. Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency by market value, fell more than 5% to $78,892.92 at 1855 GMT on Sunday. (Photo by May James/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Google Trends data show that worldwide searches for "buy bitcoin" have surged to their highest level in five years this week, a signal the crypto market has historically struggled to ignore.

The last time the query spiked this sharply was in August 2025, when bitcoin was retreating from its then-record high of around $123,000 according to CoinGecko data. Before that, the previous comparable peak was in February 2021, when bitcoin had just crossed $50,000 for the first time and retail mania was at its loudest. In both prior instances, the surge in search interest corresponded with significant price moves in the months that followed.

Today's backdrop is different, but the underlying psychology is similar. Bitcoin has shed roughly 47% since its October 2025 peak, recently touching a more-than-one-year low near $63,000,. The drop has rattled retail investors and institutions alike, pulling more than $2 trillion off the digital asset market's total capitalization.

Yet the surge in Google searches signals that the crowd could be leaning in.

Some Possible Reasons For The “Buy Bitcoin” SurgePrediction platform Kalshi flagged the search surge on X. The data could be an evidence that retail appetite is quietly rebuilding. On-chain data also supports the read.

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According to Glassnode’s Unspent Transaction Output Realized Price Distribution metric, more than 400,000 BTC were accumulated between $60,000 and $70,000 since the start of the year, lifting the share of non-exchange circulating supply with a cost basis in that range to over 8%. Separately, Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score shows whales holding at least 1,000 BTC have grown from 1,207 entities in October to 1,303 — large players absorbing supply as smaller retail holders exit. This could also imply a contrarian signal: price declines drawing in new demand rather than driving out existing holders.

President Donald Trump could impulse the renewed interest. Trump used his State of the Union address on February 25 to call for a ban on congressional stock trading, a move that drew rare bipartisan applause and, according to traders cited by Cointelegraph, helped pull overhead sell liquidity from the bitcoin order book just before prices spiked roughly $2,000 in hours, liquidating over $120 million in short positions.

Eric Trump, speaking days earlier at the World Liberty Financial forum at Mar-a-Lago, doubled down on his $1 million bitcoin price target, arguing the asset’s 70% average annual return over the past decade makes it the best-performing asset class in history, as CoinDesk reported.

“I’m a huge proponent because I do think it hits $1 million dollars. Go back two years. Bitcoin was at $16,000. Where is it at right now, $70,000? You’re going to have volatility with something that has tremendous upside. But I’ve never been more bullish on Bitcoin in my life. I’ve never been more bullish on cryptocurrency in my life," Trump said.

The Jane Street factor added another layer of intrigue. Terraform Labs' bankruptcy administrator Todd Snyder filed suit against the quantitative trading firm on Feb. 23 in Manhattan federal court, alleging Jane Street used non-public information obtained from a former Terraform insider to front-run trades during the 2022 Terra-Luna collapse — helping accelerate a $40 billion wipeout, according to The Wall Street Journal. Jane Street called the claims an "opportunistic lawsuit without merit" that it would contest "forcefully," per Bloomberg.

When the lawsuit became public on Feb. 25, traders on X speculated that Jane Street may have also been behind a pattern of daily bitcoin selling pressure that had weighed on prices for months — an allegation the firm has not directly addressed. Whether or not that theory holds, the familiar selling pattern did not materialize that day, and bitcoin surged again.

Macro forces are adding long-term fuel to the bullish case. A widely circulated report by Citrini Research and Lotus Technology Management CIO Alap Shah argues that accelerating artificial intelligence adoption will devastate white-collar employment, ultimately forcing central banks into another round of aggressive monetary expansion.

As Kaiko research analyst Laurens Fraussen told DL News, "When the economy is in the gutter, the Fed often ramps up money printing. Bitcoin goes up in response to the increased money supply and concerns about currency debasement." BitMEX cofounder Arthur Hayes made a similar argument in a February blog post, calling AI-driven deflation "ultimately good for fiat credit-sensitive assets like bitcoin."

The search data alone does not buy a bottom. But when retail curiosity, political tailwinds, a potential halt to algorithmic selling pressure and a credible macro thesis for monetary expansion all converge, the crowd typing "buy bitcoin" into Google may not be as early as the price chart suggests.

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Ripple CTO Emeritus David “JoelKatz” Schwartz pushed back against claims that the XRP Ledger (XRPL) is effectively centralized, after founder and CIO of Cyber Capital Justin Bons argued that XRPL’s Unique Node List (UNL) structure makes validators “permissioned” and gives Ripple-aligned entities “absolute power & control over the chain.”

The exchange, sparked by Bons’ broader thread calling for the industry to “reject all centralized ‘blockchains’,” quickly narrowed into a technical dispute over what XRPL validators can and cannot do in practice and what “control” means in a system that relies on curated validator lists rather than Proof-of-Work or Proof-of-Stake.

The XRP Ledger Centralization Allegation In his thread, Bons lumped Ripple alongside Canton, Stellar, Hedera, and Algorand as networks with permissioned or semi-permissioned elements. His XRPL-specific charge was straightforward: because XRPL nodes typically rely on a published UNL, “any divergence from this centrally published list would cause a fork,” which in his view concentrates power in the hands of whoever publishes that list.

Bons framed it as a binary question: “either fully permissionless or it is not” and argued that even partial permissioning is a deal breaker. He also extended the critique into a broader institutional-adoption thesis: banks and incumbents may prefer controlled environments, but “those institutions will be left behind,” while “crypto natives” win by building and using fully permissionless systems.

Schwartz’s opening rebuttal attacked the logic of Bons’ “absolute power” framing. “‘…effectively giving the Ripple Foundation & company absolute power & control over the chain…’” Schwartz wrote, calling it “as objectively nonsensical as claiming someone with a majority of mining power can create a billion bitcoins.”

Bons responded that he wasn’t alleging supply manipulation or fund theft, but insisted majority influence can still matter. “They can not steal funds, either, but they could potentially double-spend & censor,” Bons said. “Which, again, is exactly the same if someone controlled the majority of mining power in BTC.” He then suggested they debate live on a podcast.

Schwartz rejected the equivalence on mechanics, emphasizing that XRPL nodes do not accept censorship or double-spend behavior simply because a validator says so. “That’s not true. XRPL and BTC don’t work the same,” Schwartz wrote. “You count the number of validators that agree with your node and your node will not agree to double spend or censor unless you, for some reason, want it to.”

He continued the point across multiple posts, leaning on a simple intuition: a dishonest validator is not an oracle; it’s just one vote. “If a validator tried to double spend or censor, an honest node would just count it as one validator that it did not agree with.”

What Schwartz Says The Real Attack Looks Like Schwartz acknowledged there is still a failure mode, but described it as a liveness problem rather than a theft or double-spend scenario. “Validators could conspire to halt the chain from the point of view of honest nodes,” he said. “But that’s the XRPL equivalent of a dishonest majority attack except they never get to double spend. The cure is to pick a new UNL just as with BTC you’d need to pick a new mining algorithm.”

He also argued the empirical record matters, contrasting XRPL with other major networks. “The practical evidence tells this story,” Schwartz wrote. “Transactions are discriminated against all the time in BTC. Transactions are maliciously re-ordered or censored all the time on ETH. Nothing like this has ever happened to an XRPL transaction and it’s hard to imagine how it could.”

Schwartz later laid out a more detailed explanation of XRPL’s consensus model, emphasizing fast “live consensus” rounds—“every five seconds”—where validators vote on whether a transaction is included now or deferred to the next round. In that framing, the system’s key requirement is not blind trust in validators, but agreement on whether a transaction was seen before a cutoff.

He argued XRPL needs a UNL for two reasons: to prevent an attacker from spawning unlimited validators that force excessive work, and to prevent validators from simply not participating in a way that makes consensus impossible to measure. “That’s it. There’s no control or governance here other than coordinating activation of new features,” Schwartz wrote, adding that validators cannot force a node to enforce rules it does not have code for.

Schwartz closed with a longer, unusually candid rationale: that XRPL’s architecture was intentionally built to reduce Ripple’s ability to comply with demands to censor, even if Ripple itself wanted to be trusted.

“We carefully and intentionally designed XRPL so that we could not control it,” he wrote. “Ripple, for example, has to honor US court orders. It cannot say no… We absolutely and clearly decided that we DID NOT WANT control and that it would be to our own benefit to not have that control.”

He added a blunt incentive argument: even if Ripple could censor or double-spend, using that power would destroy trust in XRPL and therefore destroy the network’s utility. “And the best way to be able to say ‘no’ is to have to say ‘no’ because you cannot do the thing asked,” Schwartz wrote.

At press time, XRP traded at $1.3766.

XRP trades below the 200-week EMA, 1-week chart | Source: XRPUSDT on TradingView.com Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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Aerodrome Finance [AERO] has surged nearly 15% in 24 hours, at press time, as trading volume jumps over 109%, signaling renewed speculative interest across markets.  

This expansion develops as derivatives activity accelerates alongside price appreciation. However, the broader structure still reflects a corrective framework that has governed price action for months. 

Buyers have stepped in aggressively, yet macro confirmation has not materialized. Therefore, traders now evaluate whether this rally represents structural stabilization or another reactive bounce within a declining channel.

Descending channel keeps AERO constrained AERO continues to trade inside a long-term descending regression channel while reacting between clearly defined horizontal levels at $0.27407, $0.35893, and $0.50000. 

At the time of writing, the price hovered near $0.3280 after rebounding from the $0.27407 support zone, which has served as the immediate structural floor. However, the rebound met resistance at $0.35893, where the prior breakdown structure and recent rejection candles cluster. 

Unless buyers reclaim $0.35 with sustained strength, upside remains technically capped. Above this level, $0.50 stands as the broader structural resistance, aligned with the upper half of the regression channel. Continuation, therefore, requires acceptance above $0.35 first, followed by expansion toward $0.50.

Conversely, failure to defend $0.27407 would expose the lower boundary of the descending channel and reinforce the prevailing bearish structure.

Directional indicators now show internal pressure beginning to rebalance. The +DI line rose toward a potential crossover above the -DI line, signaling strengthening buyer activity. 

At the same time, ADX read 31.55 while trending lower, indicating that the prior bearish trend has started losing strength. 

Meanwhile, -DI held near 19.75 as +DI tracks around 18.81 and gradually closes the gap. This convergence suggests weakening downside dominance rather than expansion of directional strength. 

However, ADX remains above 25, which means trend structure technically persists. Therefore, bulls must complete the crossover to confirm a more durable shift in directional control.

Source: TradingView

Spot buyers regain dominance aggressively Spot Taker CVD over the 90 days has flipped into buy dominance, confirming that aggressive participants lift offers instead of placing passive bids. 

This shift indicates real spot demand supporting the recent rally. As a result, the surge in trading volume aligns with genuine buying pressure rather than thin liquidity reactions. 

However, the price still trades within a descending channel, which limits immediate breakout confirmation. 

Therefore, sustained CVD expansion would need to accompany a reclaim of $0.35893 to validate broader structural recovery.

AERO Open Interest expansion raises leverage stakes At press time, Open Interest (OI) jumped 24.69% to $19.54 million, signaling that fresh capital actively enters derivatives markets alongside price appreciation. 

This rise suggests traders build new exposure rather than merely closing shorts. 

However, increasing leverage introduces higher liquidation sensitivity if the price stalls beneath $0.35893 resistance. 

When OI expands while structure remains capped, volatility often intensifies. Therefore, continuation requires spot demand to absorb leveraged positioning effectively. 

If buyers maintain control and reclaim higher resistance, derivatives expansion could amplify upside. Otherwise, crowded longs could face forced unwinds near structural barriers.

Breakout brewing or leverage trap? AERO currently stabilizes above $0.27407 while challenging resistance at $0.35893 inside a broader descending channel. Spot demand strengthens, and OI expands decisively. 

However, structural confirmation depends on reclaiming $0.35893 and eventually $0.50000. If buyers secure those levels, recovery would gain technical credibility. 

If rejection persists, rising leverage could accelerate another volatility flush toward lower channel support.

Final Summary AERO holds critical support, but structural confirmation depends on reclaiming overhead resistance with conviction. Rising leverage increases upside potential, yet it also raises the probability of sharp volatility swings.

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After several attempts, the Bitcoin price finally reclaimed the $65,000 mark, but ongoing volatility and uncertainty across the cryptocurrency market still linger. With BTC falling below this support level, pressure on investors appears to have increased significantly, as evidenced by the number of BTC supply now in loss.

Record Levels of Bitcoin Now Sitting At A Loss The pressure on the market and investors has increased following the recent pullback in Bitcoin’s price. Given the price pullback, the BTC supply that is positioned at a loss has spiked sharply, indicating a bearish outlook for the market and the flagship asset.

A recent data reading is showing that Bitcoin is coming into a critical stress point, with the percentage of supply held at a loss rising to one of the highest levels ever seen. This dramatic increase, which reflects the severity of the recent price downturn, indicates that an increasing proportion of owners are now underwater.

As seen in the chart shared by James Van Straten, an advisor and senior analyst at the popular CoinDesk news outlet, the number of BTC supply now caught in the loss side just rose to 10 million BTC. It is worth noting that this figure marks the fourth-highest reading ever since its existence.

Source: Chart from James Van Straten on X According to the reading, an additional 70,000 BTC from those purchased between February 6 and 24 are in loss. As a result of this, the circulating supply is believed to hit 20 million BTC next week, which represents a 50% in loss. Given the massive supply loss, the potential of a market bottom already taking place is high. This is because history suggests that it would be sufficient capital destruction for a bear market bottom.

BTC’s Investors’ Action In The Current Market State Darkfost highlighted that it is crucial to continue examining the actions of the various investor cohorts in the market as long as the BTC situation does not improve. BTC Long-Term Holders are the primary investors in the framework, known to be less sensitive to short-term price fluctuations.

The average profit of the long-term holders is currently positioned at 74%, but this is steadily dropping as prices move closer to the LTH cost basis estimated at around $38,900. However, this cost base is static and continues to increase over time as STHs that purchased Bitcoin at higher prices move into the LTH category. 

Historic data reveal that a final capitulation phase defined by realized losses of about 20% has been triggered by price breaching below this cost basis in every bear market. Meanwhile, the market tends to rebuild the necessary foundations for a trend reversal after this phase has concluded.

Darfost noted that this should be viewed as an observation based on a small number of instances rather than a rule. However, it remains a scenario worth considering and preparing for. Given how this cycle has evolved, with the arrival of institutions, corporate entities, and even sovereign actors, the possibility of these structural changes being sufficient to shift the outcome becomes high. 

Darkfost has warned against following those claiming uncertainty on this matter. “Nothing is predictable, and the market ultimately dictates the outcome,” the expert added.

BTC trading at $65,055 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

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TLDR Table of Contents

TLDRFranklin Templeton and Ripple Back t54’s Seed FinancingPlatform Targets Identity, Risk, and Credit for Autonomous AgentsGet 3 Free Stock Ebooks t54 Labs raised 5 million dollars in a seed funding round co-led by Franklin Templeton and Ripple. The company builds identity and risk tools for autonomous agents that conduct financial transactions. Anagram and PL Capital joined the round along with several crypto-focused investors. t54 operates on networks including XRP Ledger, Solana, and Base. The startup plans to hire engineers and a developer relations lead to expand its platform. t54 Labs has secured $5 million in seed funding to build a trust layer for agentic finance. Anagram, PL Capital, and Franklin Templeton co-led the round with support from Ripple and others. Founder Chandler Fang confirmed the raise and outlined plans to expand infrastructure and hiring.

The San Francisco-based startup launched in January 2025 and focuses on identity and compliance tools for autonomous agents. Fang said no investor received board or advisory seats in the round. He declined to share the valuation or timeline details.

Franklin Templeton and Ripple Back t54’s Seed Financing Anagram and PL Capital co-led the seed round alongside Franklin Templeton. Ripple, Virtuals Ventures, Blockchain Coinvestors, and ABCDE also participated in the financing. Fang described the raise as the company’s first external funding round.

Fang said t54 employs 12 staff members and plans new hires. The company will add two full-time engineers and one developer relations or business development lead. These hires will support product development and institutional partnerships.

Tony Pecore from Franklin Templeton addressed the investment in a statement. He said, “t54 is building the trust and verification framework that institutional finance will require.” He added that institutions need infrastructure as autonomous agents enter financial markets.

Fang stated that no investor secured governance rights in the company. He confirmed that the round structure remains undisclosed. He also declined to comment on valuation metrics.

Platform Targets Identity, Risk, and Credit for Autonomous Agents t54 builds tools that verify and monitor AI agents conducting financial transactions. Fang said agents lack standardized identity checks and risk controls. He explained that businesses need accountability when autonomous systems move funds.

The platform includes four core components that address these gaps. It offers identity verification under a system called “know your agent.” It also runs a real-time risk engine that flags suspicious activity before settlement.

The company plans to extend credit lines to verified agents. Credit decisions will rely on identity records, risk scores, and transaction history. The system also combines identity, risk controls, and settlement in one interface.

Fang said, “We’re building the full trust stack that lets businesses hand financial operations to autonomous agents.”

He added that blockchain serves as a settlement and accountability layer. The infrastructure operates across multiple payment rails.

t54 currently runs on the XRP Ledger, Solana, and Base networks. The company also created x402-secure for the Coinbase-incubated x402 agent payment protocol. Last month, Evernorth announced plans to integrate t54’s tools into its XRP Ledger treasury operations.

Evernorth aims to raise over $1 billion for institutional XRP holdings. Under the partnership, Evernorth will use t54 infrastructure for autonomous treasury management. Fang said the collaboration expands institutional deployment of the platform.

XRP continued to trade in a narrow range on Wednesday, showing signs of weakness following a turbulent week. 

Notably, over the past seven days, Ripple’s XRP has risen over 3% amid widespread selling across major digital assets, reflecting persistent investor caution and subdued market momentum.

Meanwhile, popular on-chain analytics firm Santiment noted that crypto markets have struggled to maintain upside momentum, adding that there are “far less bullish comments toward Bitcoin and Ethereum compared to last week.” In contrast, Santiment noted that XRP has reached a five-week high in bullish sentiment, a shift it attributes largely to news surrounding recent partnership expansions.

Social sentiment often acts as a leading indicator in crypto markets, particularly during periods of uncertainty. As enthusiasm surrounding Bitcoin and Ethereum cools, XRP’s relative strength in online discussions suggests that traders may be rotating attention and possibly capital toward assets perceived to have fresh catalysts.

Additionally, according to analyst ChartNerd, XRP’s price has remained relatively flat below $1.50 over the past few days. The analyst emphasized that holding and “cleaning” this zone is critical for continuation toward the $1.80 level, warning that a failure to maintain support could see the token retrace to lower Fibonacci levels in the $1.30–$1.20 range. Such observations highlight that, while sentiment is improving, XRP still faces short-term technical hurdles before a sustained rally can take shape.

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The broader implications could be substantial if major financial firms begin utilizing permissioned decentralized liquidity pools. This may enhance network activity, transaction volumes, and ultimately demand for XRP. While it remains early, the narrative of Wall Street integration has historically been a powerful driver of market enthusiasm.

Furthermore, according to analyst Maxi, a move to the 4.236 extension level could theoretically place the asset at $1,300 per coin. While such projections are highly speculative and depend on extreme market conditions, they underscore the optimism circulating in parts of the XRP community.

However, the asset’s ability to hold steady and record gains during a period of weakness in Bitcoin and Ethereum may signal underlying accumulation. For now, XRP’s relative resilience stands out in a market searching for direction.

With social sentiment improving, institutional-focused infrastructure upgrades going live, and analysts outlining ambitious long-term targets, the token appears to be regaining narrative strength at a time when market leaders are struggling to inspire confidence, but as Bitcoin and Ethereum battle waning enthusiasm, XRP’s growing optimism suggests that investors are once again paying close attention to its evolving ecosystem and long-term potential.

At press time, XRP was trading at $1.46, reflecting an 8.19% upsurge in the past 24 hours.

Strategy’s Michael Saylor downplayed fears over a possible quantum computing breakthrough in a discussion on Natalie Brunell’s Coin Stories podcast, noting that cybersecurity experts generally believe any serious quantum risk is still over ten years off.

Saylor Shrugs Off Bitcoin’s Quantum Threat Although the timing of any quantum threat is uncertain, Saylor explained on the podcast that a legitimate breakthrough would trigger synchronized software updates across worldwide banking networks, internet infrastructure, consumer devices, AI systems, and cryptocurrency protocols—Bitcoin included.

The Strategy founder noted that the digital frameworks supporting today’s global infrastructure would transition to post-quantum cryptography if required, emphasizing that such an evolution would be expected rather than unexpected.

“You’ll see it coming. We’ll all see it coming,” he postulated, adding that Bitcoin’s software is built to evolve, allowing nodes, hardware, and wallets to implement upgrades as new risks or challenges arise.

Saylor suggested that a unified response would only take shape if a genuine threat were to arise, emphasizing that governments, tech firms, and financial institutions would all be exposed to the same vulnerabilities across their digital networks.

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He further characterized the crypto industry as the “most sophisticated cybersecurity community,” highlighting the widespread adoption of protections such as multi-factor authentication and hardware-based key security to protect digital assets.

Saylor argued that transferring Bitcoin involves far stricter safeguards than those generally applied to conventional bank transfers or equity trading platforms. He added:

“I think the crypto community will be the first to perceive the threat, and to react to the threat, and they’ll be leading the way.”

Concerns about quantum computing are hardly new to Bitcoin, yet they have resurfaced in recent market discussions as price volatility persists and investors search for deeper, systemic risks to explain the turbulence.

Most Bitcoin proponents regard quantum computing as a far-off concern, maintaining that systems powerful enough to compromise Bitcoin’s cryptography are unlikely to emerge for decades.

Skeptics, however, argue that the core issue isn’t when a quantum threat might emerge, but the absence of clear, proactive safeguards — particularly as governments and leading technology companies move ahead with quantum-resistant security measures.

Bitcoin Bet Rolls On as Strategy Logs 100th Buy Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin treasury firm, revealed on Monday that it added another 592 Bitcoin to its stockpile last week, spending approximately $40 million. The purchase marked the Tysons Corner, Virginia-based company’s 100th Bitcoin acquisition since launching its BTC-focused treasury strategy in August 2020.

The company now holds an eye-popping 717,722 BTC, accumulated at a combined cost of roughly $54.56 billion, with an average purchase price of $67,286 per Bitcoin. With the benchmark crypto currently trading just below $63,000, the position represents an unrealized loss of over $7.3 billion.

On today's episode of CNBC Crypto World, bitcoin is on pace to break a multi-week losing streak. Also, Trump family-backed crypto platform World Liberty Financial says it was targeted by a 'coordinated attack.

US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw positive inflows on Tuesday as Bitcoin bounced back above the $69,000 mark, ending a streak of daily outflows.

The 11 Bitcoin funds drew $257.7 million in inflows, the biggest single-day total since Feb.6, according to SoSoValue.

Tuesday’s inflows more than made up for Monday’s $203.8 million outflows, bringing weekly flows back into positive territory after five straight weeks of net withdrawals totaling $3.8 billion.

Fidelity Investments’ spot Bitcoin ETF, the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), led Tuesday’s comeback with roughly $82 million in inflows, according to Farside data. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) was close behind, attracting $78 million in fresh investor money.

Since their debut two years ago, spot BTC ETFs have generated $54 billion in total net inflows. These products currently hold aggregate net assets representing 6.31% of the total Bitcoin market capitalization, per SoSoValue.

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Despite Wednesday’s recovery, overall market sentiment remained fragile, as analysts estimated that approximately half of Bitcoin’s circulating supply was still in the red, amid reports of significant institutional selling in the fourth quarter of 2025. Since the start of 2026, assets under management in US spot Bitcoin ETFs have declined by 30.5%, sliding from approximately $117 billion to $81.3 billion.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart reported Tuesday that institutional investors, led by advisers and hedge funds, sold a total of 25,000 Bitcoin in Q4 2025. Valued at roughly $1.6 billion at current prices, the sales represent only a small portion of Bitcoin’s $1.3 trillion market cap. These institutions still hold around 311,700 BTC, according to Seyffart.

Polkadot, Solana Lead Altcoin Rally As BTC Rebounds To $69K Meanwhile, the price of Bitcoin rebounded $69,486 mark on Wednesday, gaining circa 7.9% over the past 24 hours as heavily bearish bets across the crypto market started to reverse.

The leading crypto’s rebound comes after weeks of dread, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index lingering in ‘Extreme Fear’ all February.

Within the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market cap, Polkadot (DOT) led the charge with a 22.9% growth over the past 24 hours, while Solana’s SOL jumped 12.8%.

The total cryptocurrency market cap rose by around 6.5% over the past 24 hours, reaching approximately $2.44 trillion, according to CoinGecko.

The US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could lose nearly 30% of its holdings in a single legal move, even if the government does not sell a single coin.

Last year, President Donald Trump signed an executive order creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The order directed the Treasury Department to consolidate government-held BTC into a reserve account and promised that the United States would not sell those coins.

Yet, the headline number for the reserve may be overstating how much BTC the government can actually treat as a permanent strategic asset.

Data from Bitcoin Treasuries estimates that the US government controls about 328,372 BTC. This makes it the world’s largest known state holder. At today’s bitcoin price of about $65,842, that stash is worth roughly $21.6 billion.

US Bitcoin Treasury (SourceL Bitcoin Treasuries)However, here is the complication. A large chunk of that US holdings figure includes BTC held by the government, but not cleanly government-owned in the strategic sense.

The executive order explicitly allows dispositions pursuant to a court order of a competent jurisdiction. It singles out a specific carve-out for assets that should be returned to identifiable, verifiable victims of crime.

That exception matters because roughly 94,643 BTC, about 30% of the government's holdings, is tied to the 2016 Bitfinex hack.

If those coins are returned as restitution, the reserve number would fall mechanically to about 234,000 BTC.

The reserve number is real, but the ownership question is still openThe Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is often discussed as if it were a clean, sovereign balance sheet. In practice, it is a legal and accounting mix.

Some of the BTC attributed to the government has been fully forfeited and is clearly under US control.

However, some are still entangled in criminal cases, restitution claims, or procedural steps that can take years to resolve.

That gap is now central to the debate over the US reserve.

The 94,643 BTC tied to Bitfinex is the clearest example. Those coins are visible in government-linked custody, and markets count them.

However, if a court determines they should be returned to victims, they were never truly a permanent strategic reserve asset in the first place.

This is why both sides of the public debate can miss the point.

The bullish version overstates the durability of the reserve if it treats every government-controlled coin as permanently strategic. The bearish version overstates the market impact if it treats a restitution transfer as a sovereign sale.

The legal distinction matters for price, for sentiment, and for how investors interpret the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve itself.

Why the Bitfinex coins remain frozenThe Bitfinex theft involved the theft of 119,754 BTC in August 2016, one of the largest BTC thefts in crypto history.

In February 2022, US authorities recovered about 94,643 BTC connected to that hack, a seizure that stood out for both its scale and its timing.

The next question was always restitution.

In January 2025, prosecutors asked a federal court to approve returning the recovered assets to Bitfinex as in-kind restitution, meaning the BTC would be returned as Bitcoin rather than sold first and converted into dollars.

That distinction is important for market structure.

A government sale or auction would create a visible supply event, with timing and size known in advance. An in-kind return pushes the next decision downstream, to the recipients.

That could be Bitfinex, its former users, or both, depending on how the court resolves competing claims.

US forfeiture procedure is designed to slow this stage. Third parties claiming an interest in forfeited property may file petitions in an ancillary proceeding. In the Bitfinex case, that process has become the core battleground.

Some customers argue that the stolen assets were theirs individually. On the other hand, Bitfinex argues it ultimately bore the economic loss after socializing losses and later making users whole through internal mechanisms.

So, the outcome of this matters well beyond this case because it could shape how restitution is handled in future exchange hacks.

Until the court resolves those claims or the parties reach a settlement, the coins remain effectively immobilized.

That is why the reserve can appear stable on-chain while remaining uncertain in legal terms.

LEO is acting like a market proxy for the court outcomeThe legal process remains slow, but traders are attempting to price the outcome through UNUS SED LEO (LEO), the exchange token for Bitfinex and iFinex.

Bitfinex has stated that if it receives the recovered BTC, it intends to use 80% of the net funds to repurchase and burn LEO within 18 months.

The company noted this process could include over-the-counter transactions, such as direct BTC-for-LEO swaps.

This policy effectively turns a federal court decision into a massive buyback pipeline. It gives the market a mechanism to speculate on the timeline well before a legal resolution.

In light of this, Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research, models LEO with two primary value drivers. These include ongoing buybacks funded by Bitfinex trading revenues and the expected future burn tied to the recovered bitcoin.

Using a baseline of roughly 95,000 recovered BTC, Lunde estimates the 80% allocation would equal about 75,000 BTC. At current prices, that pool is worth roughly $5 billion.

Meanwhile, he calculates that the trade-revenue buybacks alone represent a fair value of about $125 million.

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However, trading this catalyst is highly volatile.

Data from CoinMarketCap shows that LEO has a market capitalization of about $8 billion but a 24-hour trading volume of just $7.1 million. That thin liquidity profile can severely magnify price movements.

Meanwhile, the huge market capitalization also shows that LEO is trading at a roughly 60% premium to its implied fair value.

LEO Premium (Source: Vetle Lunde)This marks the highest premium since the extended period of elevated pricing that followed the initial seizure announcement in 2022.

According to Lunde, the current premium remains noisy because LEO is highly illiquid and has concentrated ownership, meaning a small number of participants can heavily skew the market.

As a result, traders may be front-running a court transfer, or simply leaning into momentum in an environment where fair value takes a back seat.

Ultimately, LEO's illiquidity will amplify the final outcome. A confirmed transfer could push valuations even higher in the short term.

Conversely, a modest or delayed supply distribution could rapidly compress the premium.

Why the headline may hit harder than the actual BTC flowsThe broader macro backdrop explains why this story is likely to move sentiment even before the court decides anything.

Bitcoin has been trading through a risk-off regime in early 2026.

For context, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen sharp capital exits of more than $4.5 billion this year, amid a 5-week streak of outflows.

In that environment, traders are already sensitive to supply headlines, especially anything tied to state-owned BTC.

So, a headline saying the US is transferring roughly 95,000 BTC would be built to shock markets.

If the coins leave government custody, the move would be restitution, not a government sale.

And if Bitfinex receives the coins and follows its stated buy-and-burn plan, the resulting BTC flow is likely to be time-sliced rather than dumped into the market at once.

Even on the rougher, rounded version of the math, about 75,000 BTC over 18 months works out to about 139 BTC per day.

That could influence LEO’s price, but it does not represent a significant supply shock compared with the far larger distribution pressure Bitcoin has already absorbed from long-term holders and ETF outflows over the past five months.

So, the real market impact may come from narrative framing rather than coin flow.

This is because the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve represents more than a simple stockpile of BTC. It functions as a political and market signal that traders can read as either bullish or bearish, even while the legal status of those coins remains unresolved.

That is why the “US loses 30% of its bitcoin reserves” framing is likely to trigger volatility. It is emotionally clean. It fits in a headline. It also strips out the legal substance.

However, the legal substance is the story.

The SBR was built to coexist with restitution. If the Bitfinex tranche leaves government custody, the reserve number on trackers will fall, and markets will react.

But the deeper point will be unchanged. The United States would not be backing away from its reserve policy. It would be following the rule of law, which is exactly what the reserve framework said it would do.

Mentioned in this articlePosted in

Polygon Ecosystem shows signs of early rebound: what factors can help the Layer-2 crypto restore $1?

Market Sentiment:

Bullish Bearish Neutral

Published: February 25, 2026 │ 8:22 PM GMT

Created by Kornelija Poderskytė from DailyCoin

Polygon’s native POL token is still stranded around the $0.11 major demand territory, but the latest on-chain stats point to a resurgence in trading activity. As the global crypto markets are enjoying a rebound on Wednesday, Polygon’s POL token (ex. MATIC) scored a 5.5% upswing.

Can Polygon Fly Above $1 On $3.26B Stablecoin Push? That’s coming amidst a yearly high in Polygon’s app revenue, now breaching $1.37 million. Doubtlessly, this positive on-chain activity is heavily boosted by the stablecoin dominance. According to DefiLlama, Polygon Layer-2’s stablecoin market cap has risen 2% in the latest 24-hour period to $3.26 billion.

In contrast, the Polygon chain’s total value locked (TVL) is still in very low figures, portraying a story that could turn into bullish divergence if the demand is met at this Polygon price range. Considering the app revenue, the average rate now exceeds $170K per day, while the garnered fees just surpassed $8 million since the start of the year.

What does the #1 payments chain look like in 2026?

7M daily transactions
500K active addresses per day
$0.024 per transaction
$8M fees generated
100M POL burnt

Polygon pic.twitter.com/qpxYd8WNOs

— Leon Stern (@leonstern) February 23, 2026 The question most Polygon’s (POL) long-term holders are asking: can Polygon price restore the $1 all-time high? This was achieved on September 13, 2024 – Polygon’s price saw a 88.48% pull-back since then. On a brighter note, the 37.31% bounce back from the cycle low hit on February 6, 2026 looks like an escape from a prolonged bearish trend.

Polygon’s Ecosystem Renaissance Wakes Up POL Price Luckily enough, the big-time crypto players, otherwise known as whales, have showcased renewed interest in the popular Layer-2 altcoin.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) now flashes 0.12 as price hits $0.01155, but the big Polygon price test lies at $0.1179 – closing above this range opens the path towards September 2025 levels, replicating the bull run towards$0.28.

If that level doesn’t hold, a pull-back to $0.08 is back on the cards.

However, much depends on the geopolitical implications. Interestingly, with the Supreme Court ruling Donald Trump’s global tariffs unlawful, crypto & stock markets witnessed a relief rally days later, but the adoption pace heavily depends on the Crypto President’s team-initiated Clarity Act.

For stablecoin-rich blockchain like Polygon (ex. MATIC), big decisions like a clear regulatory framework for stablecoins across the United States is pivotal in order to restore the lost massive TVL. Once surpassing $11 billion, Polygon’s DeFi ecosystem now revolves around roughly $1.31 billion, according to latest blockchain data from DefiLlama.

Stay in the loop with DailyCoin’s top crypto scoops:
Stripe Explores PayPal Acquisition, Could Reshape Global Payments
Breaking: Ethereum Foundation Starts Staking 70,000 ETH

People Also Ask: What exactly is Polygon (POL) & why should anyone care?

Polygon is like a turbo-charged upgrade for Ethereum: it makes transactions way faster and cheaper for apps, games, DeFi & payments.

What’s fueling the buzz and potential price bounce today?

The network’s fundamentals are popping: Stablecoin supply hit $3.26 billion (mostly USDC for quick, low-cost transfers), and DeFi app revenue jumped nearly 70% recently

Why is $0.1179 such a hot level to watch?

It’s acting like a short-term ceiling right now. If POL breaks above $0.1179 with solid volume, it could spark more upside (maybe toward $0.12–$0.14 quickly).

DailyCoin's Vibe Check: Which way are you leaning towards after reading this article?

Market Sentiment

100% Bullish

This article is for information purposes only and should not be considered trading or investment advice. Nothing herein shall be construed as financial, legal, or tax advice. Trading forex, cryptocurrencies, and CFDs pose a considerable risk of loss.

It appears another digital asset treasury (DAT) outfit is waving the white flag, as GD Culture Group Limited disclosed on Wednesday that its board authorized the sale of 7,500 BTC. At press time, that stash ranked GD Culture as the 15th largest bitcoin treasury firm by holdings.

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) remains roughly 50% below its all-time high, but adoption across institutions, corporations and governments continues to expand, According to Bitcoin service provider River, this suggests a bear market in price, not necessarily in fundamentals. Institutional Accumulation at Record Levels In 2025, institutions accumulated an estimated 829,000 BTC, distributing exposure to millions of investors through ETFs, retirement accounts and corporate balance sheets.

3 mins mins

LEO token premium signals bets on 2016 Bitfinex BTC recoveryLEO is trading at a steep premium that market observers link to hopes for progress on Bitcoin seized from the 2016 Bitfinex hack. As reported by Bitcoinworld, the premium is around 60%, fueling buyback-and-burn speculation tied to any recovery.

In market structure terms, a premium over “implied fair value” can reflect expectations of future supply contraction. In LEO’s case, that expectation is anchored to a potential use of recovered assets to repurchase and burn tokens if legal hurdles clear.

Why the Bitfinex 2016 hack Bitcoin recovery matters for LEOThe roughly 94,636 BTC linked to the 2016 incident were seized and remain under U.S. legal proceedings; as reported by The Block, the key question is restitution to victims versus government forfeiture. Restitution that routes assets or proceeds to Bitfinex would activate its buyback-and-burn framework for LEO, affecting token supply.

K33 links LEO’s premium to expectations that the seized BTC could ultimately move toward victim restitution, noting those coins represent about 30% of the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Under that scenario, Bitfinex’s LEO clauses would become financially relevant to the market’s supply calculus.

“LEO’s premium could simply reflect low liquidity and concentrated ownership, an ‘ordinary drift’ rather than certainty about legal outcomes,” said Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33.

BingX: a trusted exchange delivering real advantages for traders at every level.

If legal progress becomes visible, LEO’s thin liquidity and concentrated holder base could amplify price reactions. The core risk to the premium’s thesis is procedural delay or rulings that reduce, stagger, or prevent returns that would fund buybacks.

Signals to monitor include court docket developments, U.S. Department of Justice announcements, observable movements from known seized-wallet addresses, and formal communications from Bitfinex. Any such signal would clarify whether, what amount, and on what timeline assets might be available for LEO-related actions.

At the time of this writing, UNUS SED LEO is priced at $8.74 with 5.36% volatility and neutral sentiment. Recent metrics show 14 green days out of 30 (47%), an RSI(14) of 37.36, and SMA50/SMA200 of $8.46/$8.98.

How the 80% LEO buyback-and-burn could workMechanics: 80% of recovered BTC used to buy back and burn LEOAs outlined in the exchange’s 2019 commitment, Bitfinex would allocate 80% of any recovered amounts linked to the 2016 incident to repurchase and burn LEO. Execution would depend on the form of recovery (in-kind BTC or proceeds) and applicable costs.

Illustrative pace and caveats: ~75,000 BTC/18 months (~139 BTC/day), low-liquidity riskscrypto-economy.com/analyst-leo-could-foreshadow-movement-of-btc/?utm_source=openai” target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow noopener”>As reported by Crypto-Economy, one analyst scenario envisions roughly 75,000 BTC deployed over 18 months, about 139 BTC per day, for LEO buybacks if recovery proceeds. Low liquidity and concentrated ownership could challenge orderly execution and widen slippage.

FAQ about LEO token premiumWhat is the latest legal status of the 94,636 BTC seized from the 2016 Bitfinex hack?They remain under U.S. legal proceedings. Restitution versus government forfeiture has not been finally determined, and timelines are uncertain.

How does Bitfinex’s 80% LEO buyback and burn work if the BTC are recovered, and over what timeline?If recovered, 80% funds LEO repurchases for burning. Timelines depend on court outcomes and logistics; recent analysis has illustrated multi‑month pacing scenarios.

DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.

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Posted: February 26, 2026

For many years, Bhutan was known as one of the hardest countries to visit. Travel was tightly controlled, visitors had to book through official guides, and daily fees could go above $250.

This was done deliberately to limit tourism. But in early 2026, Bhutan changed its approach and opened its doors in a very different way, using blockchain technology.

The country has launched its first Digital Nomad Visa, but with a unique rule. Anyone applying must deposit $10,000 into TER, a gold-backed digital token built on the Solana [SOL] network.

Each TER token represents 0.01 grams of physical gold stored securely in vaults and can be refunded when the tourist leaves the country.

As expected, Solana too celebrated this win and noted, 

Source: Solana/X

Solana’s market dynamics worry investors Bhutan’s $10,000 entry requirement for digital residency comes at a difficult time for the Solana ecosystem.

At press time, SOL was trading near $82.57 after a small daily recovery, but it is still down about 32% over the past month.

This shows that the market is still under pressure, even if short-term panic has eased.

Additionally, Glassnode data suggested that in early February, investors sold at huge losses, with realized losses reaching $1.45 billion.

Source: Glassnode

That number has now fallen to about $251.9 million, which means most of the forced selling is over. However, it also suggests that many traders are tired and hesitant, not excited about buying again.

Moving forward, data from Santiment shows that Solana is currently facing three problems at once. First, Open Interest is falling, which means leveraged traders are closing positions and no longer expecting quick gains.

Source: Santiment

Secondly, active addresses are dropping, showing that fewer users are using the network compared to the busy days of memecoins and NFTs in 2025.

Lastly, development activity is also slowing, which raises concerns about long-term innovation and upgrades. Together, these trends point to a cooling network, not growing.

This makes Bhutan’s move more complex than it first appears. By asking digital nomads to lock $10,000 into a Solana-based, gold-backed token, the country is collecting capital at a time when the network is relatively weak.

What’s more? For Bhutan, this is smart; it helps support its digital economy at a lower cost, but for users, however, it is a risky decision.

This followed Bhutan’s Bitcoin [BTC] treasury showing unusual activity. This week, blockchain tracker Arkham flagged large BTC transfers, some of which later moved as USDT to exchanges like Binance and Kraken.

While this is only a small part of Bhutan’s holdings, the timing is important.

In the past, the country sold Bitcoin carefully, but doing so now, when Solana is cooling and Bitcoin is under pressure, suggests a more defensive approach. 

Final Summary Linking visas to a $10,000 gold-backed token shows strong confidence in digital assets, even as crypto markets remain fragile. Falling Open Interest and active addresses indicate that traders and users are stepping back, limiting near-term growth.

TLDR: TRON Academy now partners with 12 top universities, including Oxford, Cambridge, Princeton, and Dartmouth for 2025–2026. Student blockchain organizations across partner campuses range from over 100 to more than 2,500 active members each. TRON DAO provides students with mentorship, technical resources, and rewards to build real-world blockchain solutions. The initiative supports workshops and hybrid events to strengthen blockchain literacy and developer readiness globally.
TRON Academy has added four prominent institutions to its growing global academic network. Dartmouth College, Princeton University, Oxford University, and Cambridge University are the newest partners.

These additions come for the 2025–2026 academic year under TRON DAO’s ongoing education initiative. The program already includes Columbia, Harvard, Yale, MIT, Cornell, Imperial College London, and UC Berkeley.

TRON Academy equips students with blockchain resources, mentorship, and technical tools to advance Web3 development.

New Partnerships Extend TRON Academy’s Global Academic Reach TRON DAO announced the expanded collaborations through its official channels, drawing attention across the blockchain community. The four newly added universities bring fresh geographic and intellectual diversity to the initiative.

Oxford and Cambridge represent two of the most respected academic institutions in the United Kingdom. Princeton and Dartmouth further strengthen the program’s presence across North America.

Each new partner hosts an active student-led blockchain organization with dedicated memberships. These groups range from over 100 to more than 2,500 members per institution.

For the current academic year, TRON Academy has formalized ties with @UniofOxford and @Cambridge_Uni blockchain societies. @Princeton and @Dartmouth College complete the newest wave of additions.

TRON DAO’s Community Spokesperson Sam Elfarra addressed the expansion in an official statement. “University blockchain organizations are playing a critical role in shaping the next generation of Web3 developers and researchers,” Elfarra said.

He added, “Through TRON Academy, we are committed to providing students with access to infrastructure, mentorship, and practical learning opportunities.” These tools are designed to connect academic study directly with real blockchain innovation.

The formalized collaborations will cover workshops, educational events, and career engagement activities. Both in-person and hybrid programming formats are part of the planned structure.

Through these activities, students will build stronger blockchain literacy and developer readiness. The program is structured to create measurable outcomes across all partner campuses.

TRON Academy Connects Emerging Talent to Decentralized System Development The expansion comes as leading universities increasingly integrate blockchain and emerging technologies into academic programs. More students are now pursuing career paths tied to decentralized finance and digital infrastructure.

TRON Academy meets this growing demand by offering structured access to technical resources and mentorship. The program also includes rewards tied to building practical blockchain solutions.

TRON DAO has steadily broadened its academic engagement through builder programs and research partnerships over time.

The existing network, which includes @Columbia, @Harvard, @Yale University, @MIT, @Cornell University, @ImperialCollege London, and @UCBerkeley, continues to grow.

These fields are expected to play a central role in the future of global digital infrastructure. As adoption grows, demand for trained developers in these areas continues to rise.

The initiative works directly with student-led organizations rather than formal university departments. This approach allows the program to reach communities of actively engaged learners on the ground.

Students apply classroom knowledge to real-world blockchain challenges through structured programming. The model encourages both learning and direct contribution to the decentralized ecosystem.

TRON DAO’s academic network now spans institutions across North America, Europe, and beyond. The continued growth of TRON Academy reflects a broader industry commitment to developer education.

Each new university partnership adds to an expanding pipeline of future Web3 talent. The program positions TRON DAO as a consistent supporter of blockchain’s next generation of builders.

Key Takeaways FMS Q4 EPS rose 59% to 83 cents, beating estimates, as adjusted operating margin widened to 13.9%.FMS gross margin expanded 240 bps to 27.4%, driven by efficiency gains under the FME25 program.FMS expects flat 2026 revenues and mid-single-digit operating income change amid divestment impact. Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. (FMS - Free Report) reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 83 cents, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 23.9%. The bottom line surged 59% year over year.

For the full year, the company recorded EPS of $2.47, up 39.3% year over year.

FMS’ Revenue DetailsRevenues of $5.88 billion (EUR 5,070 million) beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.4%. The top line was down 0.3% year over year reportedly, but improved 7.1% at constant currency (cc). Also, revenues were up 8% organically.

Per management, during the fourth quarter, divestitures realized as part of the portfolio optimization plan hurt revenue development by 70 basis points.

For the full year, the company reported revenues of $22.76 billion (EUR 19,628 million), reflecting growth of 1.5% reportedly and 5.4% at cc. Organically, revenues were up 8%. The full-year top-line numbers reflect EUR 244 million or 130 basis points of negative impact due to the portfolio optimization plan.

Shares of FMS gained nearly 0.9% in yesterday’s after-market trading. The stock has declined 10.4% year to date compared with the industry’s 3.7% fall. The S&P 500 Index has increased 8.2% in the same period.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Segmental DetailsCare Delivery

The segment’s revenues were down 1.8% on a year-over-year basis but up 5.7% at cc. Revenues gained 7% on an organic basis.

Revenues in the U.S. markets declined 0.9% reportedly, but gained 7.7% at cc and 8% on an organic basis. Per management, unfavorable exchange rates hurt sales in the country. This was partially offset by positive impacts from TDAPA reimbursement regulations, favorable rate and payor mix effects, and reduced implicit price concessions.

Per management, during the fourth quarter of 2025, U.S. same-market treatment growth declined 0.2% year over year.

International sales declined 6.1% reportedly and 4.4% at cc but gained 3% on an organic basis. The decline was due to divestments realized as part of the portfolio optimization plan and unfavorable exchange rates, partially offset by organic growth. The organic growth was supported by same-market treatment growth of 1.7%.

Care Enablement

The segment’s revenues declined 8.8% year over year, reportedly, and fell 3.2% at cc as well as organically. The decline was led by unfavorable currency and lower volume amid volume-based procurement and other regulatory policies in China. This was partially offset by overall positive pricing momentum.

Value-Based Care

The segment’s revenues surged 31.6% year over year, reportedly, and gained 42.4% at cc as well as organically. Sales were driven by significantly higher number of member months, mainly due to contract expansion, partially offset by unfavorable exchange rate effects.

Margin AnalysisIn the quarter under review, Fresenius Medical’s gross profit improved 9.3% year over year. The gross margin expanded 240 basis points (bps) to 27.4%.

Selling, general & administrative expenses decreased 6.6% on a reported basis. Research and development expenses decreased 22.8% year over year.

Adjusted operating income improved 44.2% from the prior-year quarter’s level. The adjusted operating margin expanded 430 bps to 13.9%.

2026 GuidanceFor 2026, Fresenius Medical Care continues to expect flat revenue growth. The company expects operating income to decline or grow by mid-single-digit percentage points.

Our TakeFMS exited the fourth quarter on a strong note, with its earnings and revenues surpassing their respective consensus estimate. The company’s bottom-line growth continued to be driven by strong efficiency gains from its FME25+ transformation program.

The program delivered EUR 238 million in additional sustainable savings for full-year 2025, taking the cumulative savings under program to EUR 804 million over the last three years. The company plans to further expand the FME25+ program, projecting a total savings of EUR 1.2 billion by the end of 2027.

Although the FME25+ program is boosting the company’s earnings significantly, divestments realized as part of the company’s portfolio optimization hurt sales, which is likely to continue in 2026 as well. Overall pricing momentum, favorable payer mix and reimbursement coverage should support top-line growth going forward. However, the effects of unfavorable currency movements may continue to have a negative impact on sales.

Fresenius Medical started a soft launch of its high-volume hemodiafiltration (HVHDF) capable 5008X CARE system in select U.S. clinics. The company plans to start a large-scale rollout this year, which should support top-line growth. FMS expects to replace approximately 20% of its dialysis machines every year with the 5008X CARE system.

FMS also outlined its long-term growth plans, targeting operating income growth at a CAGR of 3-7% between 2028 and 2030, with the goal of achieving a mid-teens operating income margin. The company expects sales to witness a CAGR of low- to mid-single digit percent rate for Care Delivery and mid-single digit percent rate for Care Enablement.

FMS’ Zacks Rank & Other Stocks to ConsiderFresenius Medical currently sports a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Some other top-ranked stocks from the broader medical space are Intuitive Surgical (ISRG - Free Report) , Veracyte (VCYT - Free Report) and Cardinal Health (CAH - Free Report) .

Intuitive Surgical, sporting a Zacks Rank #1 at present, reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.53, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 12.4%. Revenues of $2.87 billion surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.7%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

ISRG has an estimated long-term earnings growth rate of 15.7% compared with the industry’s 13% rise. The company beat on earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 13.2%.

Veracyte, carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present, reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of 51 cents, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 59.4%. Revenues of $131.8 million beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.5%.

VCYT’s estimated earnings for 2026 implies a decline of 3.3% against the industry’s 16% rise. The company beat on earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 45.1%.

Cardinal Health, currently carrying a Zacks Rank of 2, reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS of $2.63, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10%. Revenues of $65.6 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.9%.

CAH has an estimated long-term earnings growth rate of 15% compared with the industry’s 9.4% rise. The company beat on earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 9.3%.

Brighthouse Financial, Inc. (BHF - Free Report) reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted net income of $3.93 per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 24.3%. The bottom line decreased 33.2% year over year.

Total operating revenues of $2.2 billion decreased 4.5% year over year. The top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.7%

The underperformance can be attributed to lower premiums and policy fees, softer net investment income and higher expenses. Nevertheless, a combined risk-based capital (RBC) ratio of 456%, above the company’s 400-450% target range, provides support for long-term investment.

Brighthouse Financial, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Brighthouse Financial, Inc. Quote

BHF’s Q4 Results in DetailPremiums of $173 million were down 16.4% year over year. This metric missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 13.9%.

Adjusted net investment income was $1.3 billion in the quarter under review, down 3.1% year over year. The decrease was primarily due to reduced institutional spread margin business and the effect of lower short-term interest rates. The adjusted net investment income yield was 4.44%.

Total expenses were $1.5 billion, which surged 314.8% year over year. The year-over-year increase was primarily attributable to unfavorable changes in market risk benefits, along with higher amortization of DAC and VOBA and other expenses.

Corporate expenses, pretax, totaled $234 million, up 11.4% year over year, reflecting costs incurred in connection with the pending acquisition of the company.

BHF’s Full-Year 2025 UpdateBrighthouse reported full-year adjusted earnings, less notable items, per share of $16.1, down 18.1% year over year.

Total adjusted revenues amounted to $8.66 billion, down 0.7% year over year.

Adjusted net investment income of $5.2 billion was down 0.4% year over year. Total expenses were $6.8 billion, which surged 43.2%.

BHF’s Quarterly Segmental UpdateAnnuities recorded adjusted earnings of $304 million, which rose 9% year over year but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimates by 5.1%. Annuity sales increased 22.1% to $2.7 billion, driven by record sales of Shield Level Annuities.

Life’s adjusted earnings were $18 million, down 65.4% year over year. Life insurance sales increased 9.1% to $36 million, primarily driven by sales of Brighthouse SmartCare.

The Run-off segment posted an adjusted loss of $58 million, wider than the adjusted loss of $27 million in the year-ago quarter. On a year-over-year basis, the adjusted loss, less notable items, reflected lower net investment income and a lower underwriting margin, partially offset by lower expenses.

Corporate & Other recorded an adjusted loss of $50 million compared to breakeven results in the prior-year quarter. The decline was primarily due to higher acquisition-related expenses and lower net investment income.

BHF’s Financial UpdateCash and cash equivalents were $5.4 billion, up 6.8% year over year.

Total stockholders’ equity totaled $6.8 billion as of Dec. 31, 2025, up 36% year over year.

Book value per share, excluding accumulated other comprehensive income, was $153.89 as of Dec. 31, 2025, up 5.7% year over year.

Statutory combined total adjusted capital was $5.3 billion as of Dec. 31, 2025, down 1.9% year over year.

As of Dec. 31, 2025, the combined risk-based capital ratio was 456%, above the 400-450% target range.

Zacks RankBHF currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Performance of Other InsurersVoya Financial, Inc. (VOYA - Free Report) reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted operating earnings of $1.94 per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8%. The bottom line increased 38.5% year over year. Adjusted operating revenues amounted to $2 billion, up 5.7% year over year.

The increase was due to higher earnings across all segments, partially offset by higher accruals in Corporate for performance-based compensation, reflecting strong results in 2025. The fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share also benefited from reduced share count from share repurchases.

Lincoln National Corporation (LNC - Free Report) reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $2.21, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 18.7%. The bottom line rose 15.7% year over year. Adjusted operating revenues grew 5.7% year over year to $4.9 billion. The top line beat the consensus mark by 1%.

LNC’s strong quarterly results were supported by higher insurance premiums, strong annuity deposits and solid Life Insurance performance. Higher net investment income and improved mortality results also contributed to the upside. The positives were partly offset by a decline in the sales of Group Protection and elevated expenses.

American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG - Free Report) reported fourth-quarter 2025 net operating earnings per share of $3.65, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 14.8%. The bottom line increased 17% year over year on underwriting income.

Total revenues of $2 billion decreased 2.7% year over year. The decline was due to lower net investment income. The top line also missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.4%. AFG’s robust fourth-quarter earnings were driven by strong underwriting profit, led primarily by the property and transportation segment.

LOS ANGELES--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The Law Offices of Frank R. Cruz announces an investigation of Tennant Company (“Tennant” or the “Company”) (NYSE: TNC) on behalf of investors concerning the Company's possible violations of federal securities laws. IF YOU ARE AN INVESTOR WHO LOST MONEY ON TENNANT COMPANY (TNC), CLICK HERE TO INQUIRE ABOUT POTENTIALLY PURSUING A CLAIM TO RECOVER YOUR LOSS. What Is the Investigation About? On February 23, 2026, Tennant released its full year 2025 financial results,.

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (INO) Presents at Oppenheimer 36th Annual Healthcare Life Sciences Conference Transcript

Amarin Corporation plc (AMRN) Q4 2025 Earnings Call February 25, 2026 8:00 AM EST

Company Participants

Devin Sullivan
Aaron Berg - CEO, President & Director
Peter Fishman - Senior VP & CFO

Presentation

Operator

Welcome to Amarin Corporation's Conference Call to discuss its Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results. [Operator Instructions]. Please note, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference call over to Devin Sullivan, Investor Relations for Amarin.

Devin Sullivan

Thank you for your time and attention this morning as we discuss Amarin's 2025 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial Results. On the call today are Aaron Berg, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Pete Fishman, Chief Financial Officer. Other members of the senior management team will be available as needed during the Q&A session that will follow these prepared comments.

Turning to today's agenda. Aaron will provide a state of the company, and Pete will walk through the numbers. Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that today's press release is available on the Investor Relations section of the company's website, www.amarincorp.com, as will a replay of this call shortly after its completion. Our annual report on Form 10-K will also be available in the Investor Relations section of the website in the coming days. Please be aware that during this call, we may make certain statements related to our business that are deemed forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are not guarantees of future performance, but rather are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties.

Our actual results could differ materially from expectations reflected in any forward-looking statements. Additionally, we assume no obligation to update these statements as circumstances change. For a discussion of the material risks and important factors that could affect our actual results, please refer to our SEC filings, which

Google is moving further into physical AI by bringing a familiar robotics software platform under its wing.

Alphabet-owned Intrinsic, which builds AI models and software designed to make industrial robots more accessible, is joining Google, the companies announced on Wednesday. Intrinsic will remain a distinct entity within Google but will work closely with Google DeepMind and will tap into Google’s Gemini AI models and cloud services.

Alphabet declined to share information regarding funding or purchase price.

Intrinsic “graduated” into an independent Alphabet-owned company in 2021 after five years of development within Alphabet’s X, the company’s moonshot research division. Other companies that have graduated from X include robotaxi company Waymo and drone delivery company Wing.

Wendy Tan White has served as Intrinsic’s CEO since its spinout in 2021.

The company hit the ground running. A few months after announcing its independence, Intrinsic acquired Vicarious, a fellow robotics software company, in April 2022. While the purchase price wasn’t disclosed, Vicarious had raised about $250 million from VCs and tech big wigs like Jeff Bezos.

A few months later, Intrinsic acquired several for-profit divisions of Open Robotics, a non-profit organization that builds hardware and software platforms for the robotics industry.

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Despite this rapid expansion, Intrinsic laid off 20% of its workforce in January 2023.

The company announced its first product, Flowstate, just a few months later. Flowstate is a software platform for developing robotics workflows aimed at developers that don’t have deep robotics experience — aligning with the company’s mission to make robotics more accessible.

Since then, the company has fine-tuned the technology, improved its simulation capabilities, and released its Intrinsic Vision AI model in late 2025.

Instrinsic announced a joint venture with electronics manufacturer Foxconn in October 2025 that entails the two companies working together on general-purpose intelligent robots to transform how electronics are manufactured, with the goal of full factory automation.

Now, the company is working toward those goals with closer collaboration with Google’s AI prowess.

“Combined with Google’s incredible AI and infrastructure, we’re going to unlock the promise of physical AI for a much broader set of manufacturing businesses and developers. This will fundamentally shift production, from its economics to operations, and enable truly advanced manufacturing,” Tan White wrote in the company’s blog post.

This move makes a lot of sense for Google as many tech leaders, including Nvidia’s Jensen Huang and Qualcomm’s Cristiano Amon, see physical AI as the next natural step in the monetization and advancement of AI models and technology.

Becca is a senior writer at TechCrunch that covers venture capital trends and startups. She previously covered the same beat for Forbes and the Venture Capital Journal.

You can contact or verify outreach from Becca by emailing [email protected].

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