Market Signal Briefing

Solana Price Prediction: What To Expect From SOL In March 2026 Prefer us on Google

Solana’s head-and-shoulders pattern targets $59; March enters with the move only half completeDEX volume crashed 62% while ETF inflows tripled as March inherits a divided marketHolder conviction dropped 92% into late February, not a pretty sight heading into March 2026Solana enters March under heavy pressure. SOL is down over 31% month on month, with February alone delivering a 17% loss. But the Solana price decline is only part of the problem. Underneath the chart, the economic engine that powered Solana through late 2025 — its memecoin ecosystem — has broken down. And the on-chain data tracking holders, exchange flows, and DEX activity all confirm the same thing: the selling is structural, not seasonal.

The question for March is no longer whether Solana can bounce. It is whether anything can stop the pattern already in motion from reaching its target.

Bearish Pattern Meets A Broken EngineThe 3-day chart reveals a confirmed head-and-shoulders pattern, with the neckline near $107 breaking around January 31. The measured move from that breakdown, roughly 44% from the neckline, places the technical target near $59.

SOL currently trades around $87, meaning the pattern is only partially fulfilled. From here, approximately 30% of additional downside remains if the move completes.

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Solana Broke Down As February Started: TradingViewWhat makes this setup more convincing is that the neckline break coincided with the collapse of the very ecosystem driving Solana’s on-chain economy — its memecoin sector.

In the week ending February 2, Solana’s total DEX volume stood at $118.2 billion, with Pump.fun accounting for $61.4 billion and Meteora contributing $20.1 billion. By the week ending February 23, total volume had crashed to $44.5 billion — a 62% decline, per exclusive Dune data pulled by BeInCrypto analysts. Pump.fun dropped to $30.5 billion. Meteora collapsed 83% to just $3.4 billion.

Solana DEX Volume: DuneThe chart breakdown and the memecoin collapse are not separate events. The pattern started forming as confidence was already cracking. And without its primary revenue driver, Solana now faces the rest of the measured move with weakened fundamentals underneath it.

History And SOL Holders Offer No ReliefIn past cycles, seasonal data would offer some hope here. March carries a median gain of 22.8% for Solana, and February’s historical average sits near positive 28.9%. But February 2026 returned -17%, and January delivered a 15% loss, as opposed to a +47% average.

Two consecutive red months already break the seasonal playbook. The “red month, green month” narrative no longer holds when the pattern has failed twice in a row — and the drivers behind those losses are structural, not cyclical.

Solana Price History: CryptoRankThe holder data reinforces this. In early February, when DEX volume was peaking at $118.2 billion, the Exchange Net Position change metric, showing netflows, was deeply negative — tokens were flowing off exchanges, a classic accumulation signal. That behavior matched the on-chain optimism at the time.

By February 26, the picture had fully inverted. Exchange net inflows surged to 1,561,859 SOL on a 30-day rolling basis — up roughly 40% from the 1,106,796 level seen just three days earlier on February 23. As the memecoin economy collapsed and DEX volumes cratered, holders possibly responded by moving tokens to exchanges for liquidation.

Exchange Flows: GlassnodeLong-term conviction holders tell the same story from the other side. The Hodler net position change metric — a measure of accumulation by longer-term wallets — peaked in late January (near the pattern breakdown) around 3.47 million SOL on a 30-day rolling basis. By February 26, it had collapsed to just 266,744 SOL — a 92% decline and the monthly low.

Holders Buying Less: GlassnodeThe buyers who would typically support a recovery are stepping back, not stepping in.

ETF Flows Remain The Lone SupportAgainst all of this, one data point stands in contrast. Solana spot ETFs maintained positive weekly inflows throughout February, even as Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs collectively bled. In the week ending February 20, SOL ETFs absorbed $14.31 million. By the week ending February 26, that figure had tripled to $43.13 million — the highest weekly inflow of the month.

ETFs Holding Strong: SoSo ValueCumulative SOL ETF inflows have now surpassed $900 million since launch, with 12+ consecutive days of net inflows recorded in February.

The ETF bid is real. It suggests a floor will form at some point, and intermittent bounces should be expected. But it has not been enough. SOL dropped 17% in February despite almost uninterrupted institutional buying. The scale of on-chain selling, even on the sentimental side, currently outweighs ETF demand.

Key Solana Price Levels For MarchThe $80 zone has absorbed the most price action during this sell-off — multiple tests have occurred, making it the most significant near-term support. However, repeated retests tend to weaken a level, not strengthen it. A decisive break below $80 opens continuation toward $64, and then the head and shoulders target near $59.

On the upside, strength does not return unless SOL reclaims $96, followed by $116 — the January fail-safe that now serves as the gateway to structural recovery. If $59 breaks, the next significant level on the 3-day chart sits near $41.

One catalyst could interrupt the bearish path. The Alpenglow upgrade — Solana’s most ambitious consensus overhaul targeting sub-second finality — is aiming for Q1 2026 mainnet deployment.

If details come in March, it could shift the narrative from memecoin chain to institutional-grade infrastructure.

Solana Price Analysis: TradingViewMarch will likely be defined by whether $80 holds. Above it, expect choppy consolidation with ETF-driven bounces. Below it, the measured move toward $59–64 becomes the base case. Until holder behavior reverses, DEX activity stabilizes, and Alpenglow delivers, the path of least resistance stays down.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.

TL;DR:

MARA Holdings recorded a net loss of $1.71 billion in Q4 2025, driven by a $1.5 billion decline in the fair value of its digital assets. Bitcoin production fell to 2,011 BTC during the quarter. MARA announced a partnership with Starwood Digital Ventures to develop AI data centers with an initial capacity exceeding 1 gigawatt. MARA, the largest Bitcoin miner in the United States, reported a net loss of $1.71 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, equivalent to $4.52 per diluted share, compared to a gain of $528.3 million in the same period of the prior year.

The result, detailed in a letter to shareholders filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), was driven by a negative adjustment of $1.5 billion in the fair value of its digital assets, stemming from Bitcoin’s price decline from approximately $114,300 on September 30 to $88,800 on December 31, according to CoinGecko data.

Quarterly revenue fell 6% to $202.3 million, down from $214.4 million in Q4 2024, as the lower average Bitcoin price offset the increase in hashrate. For the full year, MARA recorded a net loss of $1.31 billion, even as revenue grew from $656.4 million in 2024 to $907.1 million in 2025.

On the production side, the company mined 2,011 BTC during the fourth quarter, 6% less than the 2,144 of the prior quarter and below the 2,492 recorded in the same period of the previous year. At year-end, MARA Holdings held 53,822 BTC on its balance sheet, valued at approximately $4.7 billion at a reference price of $87,498 per unit.

MARA Bets on AI Alongside the results, the company announced a strategic partnership with Starwood Digital Ventures to develop artificial intelligence and high-performance computing data centers at its own power generation facilities. The first phase contemplates developing more than 1 gigawatt of IT capacity.

Its roadmap points to a potential expansion beyond 2.5 gigawatts, allowing MARA to participate with up to 50% in individual projects. Additionally, the company acquired in February a 64% stake in Exaion, focused on sovereign and enterprise-level AI deployments in France.

MARA’s strategy stands in clear contrast to that of its competitors. Hut 8 reported a net loss of $279.7 million in the same quarter and is working to close a $7 billion AI data center lease agreement, while American Bitcoin, backed by the Trump family, posted a loss of $59.5 million while sustaining its BTC accumulation model. MARA’s shares have fallen 46% over the past six months.

Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) has fallen roughly 35% over the past month, yet strong on-chain activity and high-profile holders speak to some bullish sentiment remaining.. Cryptocurrency Ticker Price Market Cap 7-Day Trend Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) $1,960.50 $236.7 billion +0.9% Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) $66,115.02 $1.32 trillion -1.5% XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) $1.37 $84 billion -1.6% Trader Notes: Altcoin Sherpa said Ethereum could be forming a bottom if selling pressure continues to ease and network activity remains firm.

Bitcoin ETFs recorded a third consecutive day of inflows, adding $254 million and pushing the three-day total above $1 billion. Ether, XRP, and solana ETFs also closed in positive territory, extending the all-green streak. Crypto ETFs Mark Third Straight All-Green Session The buying didn't slow down on Thursday, Feb. 26.

Bitcoin (BTC) slid further into Friday’s Wall Street open as US inflation data overshot expectations.

Key points:

Bitcoin price downside strengthens as US inflation data comes in hot.

Gold and silver benefit from a risk-off response to January PPI data.

Bitcoin price expectations face the prospect of a rocky monthly candle close.

Bitcoin under pressure after hot US PPI printData from TradingView showed daily BTC price downside nearing 2.5% on Bitstamp, while gold eyed its highest levels since late January.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The January print of the Producer Price Index (PPI) came in markedly above expectations at 0.5% month over month versus an anticipated 0.3%, per data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Core PPI fared even worse at 0.8% month over month instead of 0.3%.

US PPI one-month % change. Source: BLS
“The January increase in prices for final demand can be traced to a 0.8-percent advance in the index for final demand services. In contrast, prices for final demand goods declined 0.3 percent,” an official statement added.

With US inflation creeping higher more quickly than markets assumed, risk-asset pressure increased, while safe havens outperformed.

Gold passed $5,200 per ounce, while silver revisited $92 to hit its highest levels since Jan. 30.

XAU/USD one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Expectations for interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve at its March meeting fell below 4%, according to the latest readings from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Fed target rate probabilities for March FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME GroupBTC price fears over “massive collapse”With the monthly close in focus, Bitcoin market participants remained on edge.

Crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe warned of a possible rerun of events from early February, where BTC/USD put in 15-month lows near $59,000.

“Pretty crucial area for me to hold on to. I'd highly favor that $BTC finds a higher low at $65k,” he wrote in his latest analysis on X. 

“However, last day of the month; remember last month? A massive collapse on the markets. Let's see what it brings: holding $65K opens up the scenario to run up from here.” BTC/USDT 12-hour chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X
Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on key resistance levels for bulls to reclaim, notably the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) and old all-time highs around $69,000.

At the time of writing, BTC/USD roughly matched February 2025 in terms of performance, with losses nearing 17% month-to-date.

The pair prepared its fifth consecutive month of losses, a phenomenon absent from the charts since 2018, data from CoinGlass confirms.

BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlassThis article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

Ethereum (ETH), down 3.7% from Thursday, joined Solana (SOL) as an underperformer.

MARA Reports $1.7 Billion Q4 Loss After $1.5 Billion Bitcoin Write-Down Prefer us on Google

MARA posts $1.7 billion Q4 loss after Bitcoin write-down.Revenue dips 6% as Bitcoin slump hits mining margins.Company pivots toward AI, data centers, diversified infrastructure revenue.MARA Holdings Inc. posted a $1.7 billion net loss in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025, a sharp reversal from the $528 million profit it recorded a year earlier.

This report comes only hours after the Bitcoin miner entered a strategic partnership with Barry Sternlicht’s Starwood Capital Group.

MARA’s $1.7 Billion Loss Underscores Bitcoin Volatility — But AI Pivot Signals a New PlaybookMARA’s $1.7 billion Q4 loss came against the backdrop of a roughly 30% decline in Bitcoin’s price during the period. This forced the company to take a $1.5 billion non-cash fair value write-down on its digital asset holdings.

Revenue for the quarter slipped 6% year-over-year (YoY) to $202.3 million, down from $214.4 million in Q4 2024. Adjusted EBITDA swung dramatically to negative $1.49 billion, compared with positive $796 million in the same period last year. For the full year, MARA reported a net loss of $1.3 billion, compared with net income of $541 million in 2024. This shows how mark-to-market accounting can amplify volatility for large Bitcoin treasuries. Despite the earnings hit, MARA ended 2025 with 53,822 BTC on its balance sheet, up 20% YoY.

Mara Holdings BTC and Q4 2025 Report. Source: Mara Q4 2025 ReportAt a year-end valuation of approximately $87,498 per Bitcoin, those holdings were worth roughly $4.7 billion. Of the total:

38,507 BTC were unrestricted, 9,377 were loaned, and 5,938 were pledged as collateral. This means about 28% of its Bitcoin stack is encumbered. The company generated $32.1 million in interest income from lending activities during the year.

Liquidity remained substantial. MARA reported about $5.3 billion in combined unrestricted cash and Bitcoin holdings, including loaned and pledged assets.

It also raised $568.6 million in 2025 through its at-the-market (ATM) program but suspended usage in Q4, marking the first quarter since 2022 without tapping the facility.

Operationally, the miner continued to expand. Energized hashrate reached a record 66.4 exahash per second (EH/s) in Q4, up 25% from a year earlier. However, this was below its previously stated 75 EH/s target as management emphasized capital discipline.

AI Infrastructure Pivot Reshapes MARA’s Growth StrategyBitcoin production totaled 2,011 BTC in the quarter, down 6% YoY, reflecting higher network difficulty and seasonal energy pressures.

Purchased energy cost per Bitcoin rose to $48,611 in Q4, while cost per petahash per day improved 4% to $30.5. It points to efficiency gains from the deployment of newer equipment.

Beyond mining, MARA is accelerating a strategic pivot toward energy and digital infrastructure, particularly AI and high-performance computing (HPC).

The company announced a joint venture with Starwood Digital Ventures to develop hyperscale, enterprise, and AI-capable data centers.

MARA announces a strategic partnership with Starwood Digital Ventures to accelerate delivery of cutting-edge hyperscale, enterprise, and AI capable digital infrastructure.

The joint platform is expected to deliver approximately 1 GW of near-term IT Capacity, with a pathway to… pic.twitter.com/9rE8orvUnG

— MARA (@MARA) February 26, 2026 The partnership aims to deliver approximately 1 gigawatt (GW) of near-term IT capacity, with a roadmap exceeding 2.5 GW over time.

MARA can invest up to 50% in the projects, positioning itself for recurring infrastructure revenue and reduced exposure to Bitcoin price swings.

The company also highlighted its 64% stake in Exaion and the acquisition of a 42-megawatt data center in Nebraska as part of its AI/HPC expansion strategy.

Adding to market intrigue, MARA recently updated its executive compensation metrics in an 8-K filing. The company tied stock awards to megawatt capacity and contracted recurring revenue rather than solely to mining output.

The filing also introduced a change-of-control provision under which performance targets would automatically be treated as achieved if the company is sold. This move has fueled takeover speculation among investors.

After the close yesterday MARA filed an 8-K updating exec comp: stock awards now tied to overall MW capacity + contracted recurring revenue (not just mining output), and importantly, there is a new change of control provision: if the company gets sold those performance targets… https://t.co/F7GChY5ZTW pic.twitter.com/usoZkxlgfW

— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) February 26, 2026 Taken together, MARA appears to be balancing a massive Bitcoin treasury with an ambitious infrastructure buildout.

If this is true, then its transformation from a pure-play miner to a diversified energy and AI platform may determine whether it can smooth earnings volatility in the next crypto cycle.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.

Bitcoin slipped back toward $66,000 even as ETF inflows remained robust, with broader sentiment stuck in the extreme fear zone at 16; liquidations stand at $258.85 million over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin ETFs saw $254.5 million in net inflows on Thursday, while Ethereum ETFs reported $6.57 million in net inflows.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

A new report shows that 58% of Ethereum’s top-holder capital sits outside ETH, reshaping how dominance, concentration, and systemic risk are understood.

Summary

Aggregated rankings reveal $426b in top-address holdings versus $189b under ETH-only measurement, with nearly half of the Top-1,000 addresses changing once tokens are counted. Smart contracts now control nearly 40% of top-holder capital, signaling a structural shift from individual holders to protocol-driven mechanisms. The newly introduced Printing-Press Index (PPI) shows DeFi balances cluster around ~50% self-issued tokens, highlighting rising wrong-way risk and potential systemic fragility in a token-heavy market. Ethereum’s largest balances look dramatically smaller through an ETH-only lens. When address holdings are evaluated by total on-chain assets, ETH plus ERC-20 tokens and stablecoins valued in USD, the apparent capital at the top expands by more than 2x. This isn’t just a valuation tweak: once tokens and stablecoins are included, smart contracts and protocol-controlled entities represent over 40% of top-holder capital, fundamentally altering the visible structure of Ethereum’s market.

What to know Once addresses are ranked by total USD holdings (ETH plus ERC-20 tokens and stablecoins), the leaderboard captures far more capital than ETH-only rankings. In the Aggregated Top-10,000, total balances amount to $426B, compared with $189B when measured by ETH alone, a 2.2x difference in the capital visible at the top. The composition also shifts: in the Top-1,000, only 537 addresses overlap between the ETH-only and aggregated rankings. This view also changes who appears to control Ethereum’s largest balances. In the Aggregated Top-1,000, smart contracts account for nearly 40% of the capital. The shift implies that a large share of Ethereum’s economic weight sits in automated, protocol-controlled structures rather than externally owned accounts, altering how concentration, liquidity, and counterparty exposure should be interpreted.   A Printing-Press Index (PPI) helps separate externally sourced value from self-minted balance-sheet mass. In DeFi-related balances, self-issued components cluster around 50%, a level that moves from “detail” to systemic fragility because even modest selling pressure can trigger wrong-way dynamics and accelerate a death-spiral-style unwind. A practical risk threshold often begins around ~20%. About Ethplorer.io report  This report uses an aggregated ranking of Ethereum addresses based on totalBalanceUsd, which includes ETH, ERC-20 tokens and stablecoins valued in USD.

The Beacon deposit contract is excluded because it is a technical registry, not a wallet. It only logs staking deposits, meaning the ETH shown there is not withdrawable capital. While traditional rankings often display about 77.8M ETH (~$258B) at this address, the economically relevant staking balance is closer to ~36M ETH (~$118B) – roughly 2.2x lower. 

Token contracts are also excluded to focus on economically meaningful holders. 

Altseason already happened: Just not on the price charts Crypto markets have moved beyond price discovery and into a phase of power discovery. Prices, market caps and TVL are transparent, but it remains unclear who actually controls liquidity, issuance and systemic risk across Ethereum’s on-chain economy.

In earlier cycles, this distinction mattered less. Through most of 2017–2021, ETH represented the majority of Ethereum’s economic value, while tokens and stablecoins played secondary roles. ETH price and market cap were often sufficient proxies for economic influence.

That structure has since changed. By 2022–2023, token-denominated balances reached ETH in economic weight.

In Ethereum’s aggregated rating, ETH no longer dominates portfolios According to the Ethplorer.io report, the top addresses hold about $426.3B in total value. Of this amount, $177.5B is held in ETH, roughly 42%, while the remaining ~58% is denominated in tokens. Stablecoins alone account for around 26% of the average large-address balance.

Importantly, this is not just a matter of composition. When ranked by Aggregated value, only 537 addresses overlap with the ETH-based Top-1,000, meaning nearly half of the largest holders emerge only once tokens are counted. 

In that sense, a form of “alt-season” may have already occurred, just not in the way markets traditionally expect. Dominance did not arrive through broad price appreciation or new all-time highs, but quietly, through balance-sheet accumulation.

This disconnect helps explain why the shift went largely unnoticed. Market participants were watching charts, while structural dominance was changing on-chain. 

What this reveals is not a failed altseason, but a transformed one. Capital did not rotate into altcoins through explosive price appreciation. Instead, it expanded laterally, across a growing number of protocols, tokens and smart contracts, while prices remained largely range-bound.

When size stops signaling strength Over the past year, Top-100 addresses did not preserve capital better than the broader Top-1,000. Despite expectations of superior information or positioning at the very top, concentration did not translate into structural outperformance.

By calculating the Median balance (~$122M), the Maximum balance ($35.2B), and their ratio (Max / Median ~290×) for the Aggregated Top-1000, a clear conclusion emerges. Taken together, these metrics point to a shift from market risk to system risk. A nearly 290× gap between the largest and median balances reflects structural concentration rather than distributed exposure. In such an environment, losses are driven less by adverse price movements and more by the liquidity conditions and mechanics of leading protocols.

For investors, the implication is practical rather than theoretical.

In a token-heavy, sideways market, strategies centered on capital preservation and yield capture, staking, liquid staking, restaking, and stablecoin-based returns appear more consistent with how large holders are actually positioning on-chain than speculative bets on illiquid tokens or leveraged exposure.

In other words, structural change is already reflected in balances, while expectations continue to follow charts.

If tokens now represent the majority of Ethereum’s economic weight, the more important question is no longer whether this shift exists, but what risks it introduces. Especially when a growing share of that capital is self-issued.

The Printing-Press Index: Measuring self-minted wealth To separate externally sourced capital from value inflated by self-issuance, the Printing-Press Index (PPI) is calculated by Ethplorer as the share of a project’s own tokens within its total token-denominated portfolio:
PPI = Own tokens (USD) / Total tokens (USD).

*Only liquid assets are included. Spam tokens are filtered using Ethplorer.

At a group level, the results are uneven:

DeFi protocols cluster around ~50% self-issued tokens (e.g. UNI, AAVE, MNT). Centralized exchanges average ~7% (BNB, CRO, LEO), but with notable outliers: Within the Bitget-linked address group, 31 related addresses hold roughly $11B in total assets, of which ~$3.25B is denominated in BGB, implying a group-level PPI of ~30%. As Ethereum’s economy shifts toward tokens, balance size becomes a weaker indicator of risk. High PPI introduces a well-documented structural risk known as wrong-way risk, where a system’s stability depends on the value of its own token.

At low levels (roughly 10-20%), self-issued tokens function as a design feature. Beyond ~40-50%, the system enters a fragile regime: modest external pressure can impair confidence, compress liquidity, and trigger reflexive sell-offs characteristic of a death-spiral dynamic. At this point, PPI shifts from a descriptive metric to a signal of systemic vulnerability.

The UST-LUNA collapse represents the extreme case, with a PPI near 100%, where self-referential backing led to a reflexive unwind once confidence broke.

The FTX-FTT case shows that even ~40% self-issued exposure can destabilize a system when liquidity thins.

In both cases, balance-sheet size masked fragility rooted in token self-dependence.

In short In a token-heavy market, what matters is no longer how big a balance is, but what it consists of. PPI provides a practical filter for assessing balance-sheet quality, separating externally sourced capital from value amplified through self-issuance. In a market where structural dominance has already shifted and prices remain range-bound, attention naturally moves from chasing expansion to managing exposure. For analysts and investors, monitoring how capital is composed, not just how much exists, becomes central to evaluating resilience, concentration and risk in a post-ETH-dominance landscape.

Smart contracts vs. HODLers: When risk moves from holders to mechanisms When Ethereum was conceived in 2013, Vitalik Buterin framed it in his White Paper not as a currency system, but as a platform for self-executing smart contracts and decentralized applications. Aggregated on-chain data now shows that Ethereum’s largest holders increasingly reflect this architecture:

When viewed through an ETH-only lens, smart contracts appeared as a minority participant in Ethereum’s wealth distribution. Aggregated balances change that picture materially.

In the Aggregated Top, smart contracts control nearly 40% of total capital, roughly three times their share in ETH-only rankings.

This is not just a classification shift, it is a risk transfer. 

When capital sits in externally owned accounts, risk is tied to individual behavior. When capital moves into smart contracts, risk becomes embedded in mechanisms: code logic, collateral design, liquidity assumptions and token economics.

For analysts and investors, this changes how exposure should be evaluated.

A large balance no longer implies resilience. What matters is whether that balance is externally sourced, or recursively backed by its own issuance. In a contract-dominated landscape, headline TVL or balance size can mask fragility rather than signal strength.

Operationally, this shifts analysis from protocol narratives to address-level balance inspection.

Evaluating a protocol increasingly means identifying its associated on-chain entities, aggregating their balances, and measuring how much of that capital is represented by the project’s own token. This process relies on address attribution and tagging rather than price charts alone.

This is where PPI becomes operational rather than theoretical.

Using tagged project addresses, available across modern blockchain explorers, analysts can quantify self-issued exposure directly. A PPI above roughly 20-30% signals rising wrong-way risk, where protocol stability increasingly depends on the market value of its own token rather than external capital.

Final insight: What the new structure of Ethereum actually means Ethereum’s on-chain data no longer supports analysis based on ETH balances alone. Once capital is viewed in aggregated USD terms, a different market structure emerges, one that materially changes how exposure, dominance and risk should be interpreted:

Smart contracts are no longer marginal holders, they are core economic actors.
With nearly 40% of top-holder capital controlled by contracts, risk increasingly resides in protocol mechanics rather than individual decision-making. The altseason did not disappear, it changed form. Capital expanded across protocols and balance sheets rather than through price appreciation, explaining why structural dominance shifted without new All-Time Highs. Balance size is no longer a proxy for resilience. High PPI levels show that large balances can be internally reinforced by self-issued tokens, introducing wrong-way risk even in systems that appear well-capitalized. Exposure analysis must shift from narratives to balance composition. Evaluating protocols now requires inspecting aggregated balances, address attribution, and self-issued exposure, not just TVL, token price or brand perception. Disclosure: This content is provided by a third party. Neither crypto.news nor the author of this article endorses any product mentioned on this page. Users should conduct their own research before taking any action related to the company.

XRP Ledger’s (XRPL) tokenized real-world asset (RWA) value has reportedly hit a new record, with Ripple-backed company Ctrl Alt wrapping up a major tokenization deal on the network.

To be specific, the tokenization infrastructure provider has completed a $280 million (AED 1 billion) diamond tokenization deal with Dubai-based Billiton Diamond, marking one of the largest initiatives of its kind.

Ripple executive Reece Merrick, managing director for the Middle East and Africa, confirmed on Friday, February 27, that the assets are now live on the Ledger, whose tokenized asset value has now reached approximately $1.96 billion.

“The tokenization of 1 Billion+ AED in diamonds by CtrlAltCo and Billiton Diamond isn’t just a win for the UAE, it’s a masterclass in how the XRP Ledger handles high-value RWA at scale. As part of the Ripple team, I’m particularly proud of how we’re solving the “Trust Gap” in digital commodities,” Merrick wrote on X.

Diamonds are forever and now, they’re on-chain 💎

The tokenization of 1 Billion+ AED in diamonds by @CtrlAltCo and Billiton Diamond isn't just a win for the UAE, it’s a masterclass in how the XRP Ledger handles high-value RWA at scale.

As part of the @Ripple team, I’m… https://t.co/rM3ewDnZXs

— Reece Merrick (@reece_merrick) February 27, 2026 $280 million in tokenized diamonds now XRPL As mentioned, the deal has brought more than $280 million worth of certified polished diamonds to XRPL. As such, the initiative connects physical commodities with blockchain infrastructure, using Ripple’s enterprise-grade custody solutions to secure the assets.

Merrick further emphasized that Ripple’s infrastructure also provides bank-grade vaulting and compliant token issuance. This effectively transforms traditionally illiquid luxury goods such as diamonds into blockchain-based tradable assets.

Likewise, he highlighted collaboration within the regulatory and innovation ecosystem in the United Arab Emirates, including engagement with Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC) and Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA). This way, he said, the project helps set new global benchmarks for regulated asset tokenization.

Naturally, the deal could also help promote a wider trend of luxury and physical assets migrating on-chain. This, in turn, could enhance XRPL’s utility and strengthen demand within the ecosystem, perhaps even for XRP.  For now, though, the cryprocurrency has shown no meaningful reaction to the news.

Featured image via Shutterstock

Minnesota lawmakers want every Bitcoin ATM in the state gone.

DFL Rep. Erin Koegel introduced House File 3642, a bill that would ban all crypto kiosks statewide and repeal the entire regulatory framework built just two years ago.

The Minnesota Department of Commerce is backing the move, with government relations director Sam Smith confirming the agency “strongly supports HF 3642” and plans to roll out even broader consumer protections in the coming days.

About 350 licensed Bitcoin ATMs from 8-10 companies currently operate across Minnesota. If this bill passes, every single one gets shut down.

Why Minnesota’s 2024 Crypto ATM Laws Weren’t EnoughMinnesota already tried regulating its way out of this problem. A 2024 law set $2,000 daily transaction limits for new customers and required fraud refunds. It didn’t work.

Woodbury Detective Lynn Lawrence told the House Commerce Committee that scammers simply adapted.

“These machines remain one of the most effective tools that scammers are continuing to use to steal money,” she said.

Worse, some victims are now being instructed by scammers to drive to Wisconsin to bypass Minnesota’s limits entirely.

Police Sgt. Jake Lanz described a case where a 78-year-old woman on a fixed income was coerced into sending roughly $80,000 over six months, leaving her facing housing instability.

“These cases, for us to investigate, are incredibly difficult based off how the money moves from the ATM and then transactions that typically lead overseas,” Lanz said.

Bitcoin ATM Scams: A National Problem Growing FastThe FBI recorded over 12,000 crypto kiosk fraud complaints and $333 million in losses through November 2025 alone, up from $250 million the year before. Adults over 60 accounted for 86% of those losses.

Minnesota is far from alone. Indiana lawmakers voted 7-0 to convert a regulation bill into an outright Bitcoin ATM ban. Iowa’s Attorney General sued both Bitcoin Depot and CoinFlip after finding at least 95% of kiosk transactions in the state were fraudulent. Vermont extended its moratorium on new machines until July 2026.

What Happens NextThe bill only targets physical kiosks. Online crypto transactions remain legal. CoinFlip, which operates 50 kiosks in Minnesota, pushed back, arguing the state should tighten regulations rather than impose a blanket ban.

HF 3642 remains in committee with no vote scheduled yet. But the direction is unmistakable: states are not waiting for Washington to act.

Also Read: SEC ETF Deadline, CLARITY Act, New Fed Chair: 5 Events That Will Define Crypto in 2026

Trust with CoinPedia:CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017. All content is created by our expert panel of analysts and journalists, following strict Editorial Guidelines based on E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness). Every article is fact-checked against reputable sources to ensure accuracy, transparency, and reliability. Our review policy guarantees unbiased evaluations when recommending exchanges, platforms, or tools. We strive to provide timely updates about everything crypto & blockchain, right from startups to industry majors.

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Both market and on-chain metrics indicate a weakening recovery structure, and Cardano's recent market behavior reveals a dramatic loss of momentum. The most obvious indicator is found in trading activity: the data provided indicates that spot volume on major exchanges has decreased by approximately 45% to 55%, indicating a sharp drop in participation during what had appeared to be an early stabilization phase.

Cardano remains in downtrendFrom the standpoint of price structure, ADA is still stuck in a protracted downward trend. The assets trading below the 26 EMA, 50 EMA and 200 EMA on the daily chart confirm the bearish alignment of short-, medium- and long-term trend indicators. The recent price action around $0.29 lacks strong expansion candles and follow-through volume, indicating that buyers are not committing in sufficient size. 

ADA/USDT Chart by TradingViewAttempts to regain higher moving averages have also failed time and time again. Considering that earlier recovery efforts depended on short bursts of participation, the volume decline is especially significant. Price rebounds often fade quickly in the absence of sustained liquidity. This dynamic is confirmed by the chart's volume bars, which show isolated spikes followed by decreased activity, indicating fatigue rather than accumulation.

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Longs exposureData on derivatives add an additional layer. Exchange-wide long/short ratios continue to favor long exposure, but liquidations are still comparatively low. This shows that there is leverage, but it is not causing a breakout. While the four-hour and larger windows show negative net flows, futures flows highlight fragmented sentiment rather than coordinated positioning.

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The lack of cohesiveness is reinforced by spot flow metrics. Larger time frame readings shift negatively, suggesting that transient buying interest is not sustained even though short-interval inflows occasionally turn positive.

Additionally, exchange volume heatmaps show that overall participation is decreasing rather than increasing, with concentrated activity on a small number of venues. Market capitalization and on-chain metrics are still comparatively stable, but this stability does not equate to strength. 

Rather, it represents stagnation: capital is neither expanding nor leaving the market aggressively. The steep decline in trading volume indicates that instead of actively influencing price direction, participants are simply waiting.

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Ripple has published a new whitepaper arguing that institutional crypto market structure still lacks the settlement, credit and risk infrastructure needed to support large-scale participation. In the paper, Ripple says digital assets need a Digital Prime Brokerage model built around centralized credit intermediation, aggregated liquidity and T+1 net settlement if the market is to mature beyond its exchange-centric architecture.

Ripple’s Managing Director for Middle East & Africa Reece Merrick announced the whitepaper via X: “Traditional finance meets digital assets, but the bridge can still be a little shaky. Managing a matrix of exchanges and bilateral risks isn’t just a headache, it’s an inefficiency tax on your capital. The new Ripple whitepaper introduces the Digital Prime Broker (DPB) model, transforming complex risk into a streamlined 1:1 relationship.”

Ripple Targets Crypto Market Fragmentation The whitepaper, titled The Blueprint for Institutional Digital Assets Trading, frames today’s OTC crypto market as structurally inefficient compared with foreign exchange. Ripple argues that institutions are still forced to operate across fragmented venues where execution, custody and credit are bundled together, collateral is siloed, and firms must maintain multiple bilateral relationships. The paper identifies three main frictions: multiplied credit risk, trapped capital and fragmented asset risk.

Ripple’s core claim is that crypto should borrow more directly from FX market structure. “This paper explains why digital asset markets require a prime brokerage–style model that features centralized credit intermediation, netted T+1 settlement, and the unbundling of execution, custody, and credit into clearly defined roles,” the paper says. It adds that the Digital Prime Broker, or DPB, should function as “core shared infrastructure” that can be tuned to different client requirements rather than forcing everyone into a single rigid model.

Under that framework, a client would execute one master agreement with a prime broker, while trades done with approved liquidity providers and market makers would be given up to that broker. Ripple argues this replaces a web of bilateral exposures with a single contractual counterparty, simplifying legal, compliance and settlement workflows while reducing failure risk across venues.

The paper leans heavily on capital efficiency. Ripple says the current market still relies on gross settlement or full prefunding, which forces repeated intraday asset transfers and leaves collateral stranded across exchanges. In one example, it says a client buying 100 BTC and selling 80 BTC during the same cycle would only need to settle 20 BTC net under a T+1 model, cutting gross fund movements by roughly 89%.

It also argues that the existing system hides financing costs rather than removing them. Ripple says offshore exchanges and bilateral liquidity providers often apply default swap rates of around 11%, roughly 7% above the risk-free rate, implying a daily funding cost of about 1.92 basis points, or $192 per $1 million per day. In Ripple’s telling, a DPB model would make those costs explicit instead of embedding them in spreads or subsidizing them through interest-free client collateral.

The paper also includes outside support from XTX Markets COO Mike Irwin, who writes: “A Digital Prime Brokerage model will enable institutional participants, including retail aggregators, to reduce operational risk, unlock trapped capital, and scale growth. As clients increasingly favor net-settled, prime-based structures, liquidity providers and venues will have to adapt. Adoption, however, will depend on prime brokers supporting specific client needs and constraints rather than enforcing a rigid, one-size-fits-all model.”

XRP is present, but not as the main story. Ripple says the XRP Ledger could support early settlement through onchain credit lines that fund obligations ahead of the standard T+1 net settlement cycle, with funding costs charged transparently to the party requesting early liquidity. That makes XRP part of the proposed plumbing, but the whitepaper’s main thesis is broader: institutional crypto still needs better market structure before it can look more like mature finance.

At press time, XRP traded at $1.4129.

XRP hovers above the 200-week EMA, 1-week chart | Source: XRPUSDT on TradingView.com Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.

Bitcoin (BTC) options traders are building positions for a potential rebound toward $90,000, according to onchain derivatives platform Derive, pointing to early signals that the market may be attempting to form a base.

Recent derivatives positioning suggests traders are shifting away from aggressive downside hedging while maintaining defined protection, Derive Head of Research Dr. Sean Dawson commented in a note to The Block.

"The crypto market is beginning to show early signs of stabilization after weeks of uncertainty, with derivatives positioning suggesting traders are quietly preparing for a recovery while still maintaining meaningful downside protection," he said.

After a brief uptick at the start of February, bitcoin volatility has settled back into the 50% range — a level historically associated with consolidation rather than panic selling, Dawson noted. At the same time, the 25-delta skew, a key options sentiment gauge, has rebounded sharply from late-February lows, moving from roughly -15% to around -7%. The shift indicates traders are becoming less aggressively defensive and more balanced in their outlook, according to the analyst.

Options flows reinforce that cautious optimism, Dawson added. The March 27 bitcoin expiry, which currently holds the largest open interest in the market, shows significant call accumulation at the $80,000 and $90,000 strikes. Derive said this clustering suggests bullish traders are positioning for a recovery into the $85,000 to $95,000 range over the coming month as liquidity conditions stabilize.

However, downside protection remains firmly in place. Substantial put open interest is concentrated at the $60,000 and $55,000 strikes, indicating bears expect any drawdown to remain within a defined range rather than escalate into a capitulation event, Dawson said.

Bitcoin is currently trading for $66,029, according to The Block's BTC price page, down 3.2% over the past day.

Defensive hedging persists amid macro crosscurrents Ethereum derivatives markets reflect a similar asymmetric setup. Derive highlighted a notable build-up of call exposure around the $3,500 strike, alongside strong put demand at the $1,800 level, underscoring continued hedging against macro risk and delayed capital inflows.

Data from Bybit and Block Scholes also demonstrate caution. After bitcoin briefly fell to $62,000 and rebounded toward the high-$68,000 area, one-week at-the-money implied volatility climbed to about 60%, leaving the front end of the volatility curve mildly inverted. Put skew has eased from extreme levels but remains tilted toward downside protection, while perpetual futures open interest continues to decline, signaling limited appetite for leveraged exposure, the firms said on Friday.

"The $70,000 psychological level has thwarted bitcoin bulls for much of this month, keeping the world's oldest and largest cryptocurrency on course for its fifth consecutive monthly decline," Han Tan, chief market analyst at Bybit, said. "Still, as crypto's fundamentals remain supportive, the current confidence crisis may ultimately create space for a strong bullish narrative to emerge. Flows could reverse once macro clarity improves, particularly around Federal Reserve policy or U.S. trade policy."

Supporting the idea that sentiment may be near a trough, recent research from Binance highlighted that options-market hedging has reached its most extreme level since the FTX collapse, despite the absence of a fundamental negative catalyst. Binance analysts also observed that crypto’s recent price behavior has closely tracked high-beta technology stocks — a dynamic driven by institutional exchange-traded fund ownership that treats bitcoin as a technology proxy rather than a pure monetary asset.

ETF flows show tentative re-engagement Broader market sentiment has also softened. While U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for four consecutive months, they are currently on a three-day net inflow streak topping $1 billion, according to data compiled by The Block.

That includes $254.4 million worth of net inflows on Thursday, led by BlackRock's IBIT and Bitwise's BITB, with $275.8 million and $69 million in creations, respectively, offset by net outflows from other funds.

Meanwhile, Pepperstone Senior Research Strategist Michael Brown said participants remain attentive to geopolitical developments and renewed pressure in the technology sector, with U.S.-Iran talks and tech stock weakness weighing on risk appetite. Treasury yields dipped toward 4.01% on the 10-year before stabilizing, while crude benchmarks experienced intraday swings but ended largely unchanged.

"Taken together, the data points toward a market attempting to form a base," Derive's Dawson said. "Volatility compression, improving sentiment metrics and increasingly structured positioning suggest traders are transitioning away from defensive panic toward conditional optimism, preparing for upside participation while remaining protected against another leg lower."

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

© 2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

14h05 ▪ 5 min read ▪ by Evans S.

Summarize this article with:

The four-year Bitcoin cycle has not disappeared into the noise. According to an analysis shared around CryptoQuant data, the 2026 drop resembles, in its internal mechanics, the corrective phase of the previous cycle. Price and on-chain indicators reconnect, like two pieces of the same puzzle once thought lost.

In brief Bitcoin is going through a correction that strongly resembles the 2020–2022 cycle. On-chain metrics deteriorate along with the price structure. The 4-year cycle seems to hold, without guaranteeing that the bottom has already been set. A Bitcoin Cycle That Repeats… Especially When Looking at the Structure The central idea is simple. After the halving, Bitcoin accelerates strongly, then the momentum cracks. This “expansion then weakening” sequence appears again in the market reference points used by analysts.

During expansion phases, the price often moves above the VWAP anchored at halving, the Volume Weighted Average Price, in other words, the volume-weighted average price. It’s a benchmark. Even a compass. When closes remain near the upper bands, the market frequently enters an overheating zone. And this sequence, Bitcoin plays it again cycle after cycle.

Then the music changes. Crossing below closely monitored technical levels, like the weekly SMA50, often acts as a sign of fatigue. Not a guaranteed “top.” More of a change in pace.

The Turning Point: When Bitcoin’s Price Stops Being Carried “Alone” In the 2020–2022 cycle, one moment often comes up in retrospectives. The market makes a relative low, then fails to make a new high. Bitcoin’s price starts respecting resistances, not just supports.

This pattern is exactly what many are looking for today. Not to guess the next figure, but to characterize the environment. A market that rebounds in a solid trend does not have the same texture as a market that rebounds by reflex.

The important nuance is that these signals do not “prove” a predetermined follow-up. They mainly say that Bitcoin has not entered a totally new regime. The current correction behaves like a cycle correction, with its stages and friction zones.

On-Chain Data Confirms Tension, Not Just Volatility This is where the analysis becomes more interesting. When Bitcoin’s price weakens and on-chain remains robust, it can be called a simple shakeout. When the price weakens and on-chain deteriorates at the same time, it is structural stress.

During Bitcoin’s 2026 drop, several metrics approach levels already seen in the 2022 period. The “Supply in Loss” would hover around 9.5 million BTC. The NUPL would have cooled to about +0.11. Realized losses would approach 6 billion dollars. This trio tells the same story: many recent buyers are trapped.

Another sharp signal. “New whales” would shift into negative territory via UPR, while older large holders would still be in profit, but with a shrinking margin. On the short term side, the NUPL of recent holders would turn negative, which fits with an idea of capitulation.

What This Implies: Not a Cycle End, Rather a Foundation Test Saying “the Bitcoin cycle holds” does not mean “the bottom is made.” The analysis itself remains cautious. The message is mainly that the correction fits a known grammar, instead of being an accident without logic.

Within this framework, two outcomes remain open. Either the pressure worsens and we slide toward a deeper capitulation. Or the market builds a base, with price stabilization and a gradual improvement of latent loss and profit indicators.

One last point deserves to be kept in mind. The “4-year cycle” is a map, not the territory. Macro factors, liquidity, and regulation can accelerate or slow down the scenario. But when Bitcoin’s price and on-chain start telling the same story again, it becomes harder to dismiss the cycle with a wave of the hand.

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Evans S.

Fascinated by Bitcoin since 2017, Evariste has continuously researched the subject. While his initial interest was in trading, he now actively seeks to understand all advances centered on cryptocurrencies. As an editor, he strives to consistently deliver high-quality work that reflects the state of the sector as a whole.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.

Bitcoin could take a hit traders are not pricing. If fighting breaks out between President Donald Trump and Iran, Iran’s mining pipeline can shut down and take $1 billion a year in crypto revenue with it.

Iran can mine Bitcoin for about $1,320 per coin on subsidized electricity and sell near $68,000. That is a 50x gross margin on power cost alone. Power is priced at half a cent per kilowatt hour. About 700,000 mining rigs are said to be draining 2,000 megawatts every day while civilians face rolling blackouts.

95% of those rigs are allegedly illegal, according to the Trump administration. The IRGC is linked to the largest operations and is said to be exempt from electricity bills.

Bitcoin is used for sanctions evasion because it converts state-subsidized energy into dollars that a SWIFT ban cannot touch. Each block mined on that electricity feeds that flow.

Iran is estimated at 2% to 5% of hashrate, or about 1 in every 25 blocks, which are validated by machines said to fund the IRGC, the group described as massing troops at the Iraqi border, operating missile batteries that F-22s were sent to suppress, and running nuclear facilities that B-2s are programmed to destroy.

Strikes on Iran’s power grid can erase the mining On top of that, Iran’s power grid is failing, as the crypto mining load is akin to a mid-sized city’s electricity demand.

Independent market analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera says, “A military campaign targeting critical infrastructure, command nodes, radar installations, and military communications would cascade through the same grid that powers the mining farms.”

An estimate from JPMorgan says a 7-to-10 day air campaign could cut Iranian electricity generation by 30% to 50%.

“The global Bitcoin hashrate drops 2 to 5 percent overnight,” Shanaka predicts.

The market is pricing Iran risk into oil, not into Bitcoin. Every hash produced in Iran is on a countdown timer. When the grid goes, the hashrate goes with it, and the IRGC loses its last unsanctionable revenue stream.

Brent crude futures rose $1.13, or 1.6%, to $71.88 a barrel by 1030 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose $1.10, or 1.7%, to $66.31. For the week, Brent was set to gain 0.2%, while WTI was poised to slip 0.1%.

Trump had said around a week ago that Iran must make a deal over its ⁠nuclear programme within 10 to 15 days or “really bad things” will happen.

Bitcoin’s retail investors run out of cash as headlines rise As of press time, Bitcoin has crashed to $65,000, per data from TradingView. Blockstream CEO Adam Back believes that Bitcoin lacks downside support because retail investors are “all in” and do not have cash left to buy dips. He tied it to a 25% year-to-date decline.

Back said, “Bitcoin tends to be a little weak to the downside because many of the retail investors end up being all in.” He added, “They don’t have a lot of capital to buy Bitcoin.” He compared that to stock investing, where a mutual fund can sell Microsoft and buy Tesla when Tesla looks cheaper.

Iran and the United States held hours of indirect negotiations on Thursday over Tehran’s nuclear program and left without a deal. The U.S. gathered a fleet of aircraft and warships in the region.

Oman’s foreign minister, Badr al-Busaidi, mediated the talks in Geneva. He said there had been “significant progress in the negotiation,” without details.

Just before the talks ended, Iranian state television reported Tehran was determined to keep enriching uranium, rejected proposals to transfer it abroad, and sought the lifting of international sanctions, signaling it was not ready to meet Trump’s demands.

Iran’s foreign minister said talks with the Trump administration were among the country’s “most intense and longest rounds of negotiations.” Abbas Araghchi offered no specifics and said, “what needs to happen has been clearly spelled out from our side.”

Meanwhile, China on Friday advised its citizens to avoid traveling to Iran and urged people there to evacuate as soon as possible.

Iran’s Prime Minister Ali Hosseini Khamenei said during a parliament meeting that:- “Let me clarify something for the leaders of the United States: the phrase ‘Death to America’ means death to Trump and his team, not to the American people.”

Having failed to reclaim $70,000 during the recovery started on February 24, Bitcoin (BTC) abruptly started a crash in the early hours of Friday, February 27, falling about 3.3% within just four hours.

12h05 ▪ 5 min read ▪ by Ghiles A.

Summarize this article with:

The cryptocurrency market is going through a period of high tension, marked by several months of decline. Yet, search data reveals an unexpected signal: despite the negative climate, bitcoin is attracting a discreet but measurable renewed interest. This evolution highlights a clear divide between investors’ fear and the growing curiosity of the public.

In brief Google search trends reveal a clear divide between investor fear and growing public curiosity around bitcoin. Alarmist queries such as “Bitcoin to zero” and “Bitcoin is dead” are surging, a signal historically associated with market bottoms. At the same time, educational searches like “What is Bitcoin?” are hitting record highs, driven by new, novice users. Bitcoin Google Trends illustrate investors’ concern While bitcoin has just surpassed $68,000 again after a marked rebound in the US stock markets, web statistics show an increase in negative queries. Many people are searching for truly alarmist expressions.

Specific terms like “Bitcoin to zero” are breaking records, notably in the United States where it reached a score of 100 on the company’s relative interest scale this February. The phrase “Bitcoin is dead” is also experiencing unprecedented success.

The authors of these queries already have some financial knowledge. However, their experience in this market is still too short. They clearly lack perspective on historical declines. As a result, they do not know how the asset reacts to major crises. Their view is limited to recent chart fluctuations. This virtual panic reflects the general sentiment of economic actors.

Increase in searches for the expressions “Bitcoin to zero” and “Bitcoin is dead”.
An instructive comparison with previous historical market cycles Experienced traders analyze these statistics carefully. They logically compare the current situation with past archives. Often, such extreme pessimism indicates an imminent bottom.

Investor NoName emphasizes in a post on X a significant increase in negative bitcoin queries. These have doubled compared to previous crypto winters. They even exceed levels recorded during the health crisis.

At the same time, the site Bitcoin Deaths, which lists media articles proclaiming bitcoin’s end – numbering 467 to date –, indicates that an investor placing $100 at each of these declarations would today have accumulated a virtual portfolio exceeding $68 million, strikingly illustrating the resilience of the digital currency.

Marked interest from novices in the definition of Bitcoin Meanwhile, a completely different phenomenon is happening online. The exact question “What is Bitcoin?” is exploding on the web. This basic query is now at an all-time historic high. This unprecedented situation reveals an obvious divide in public opinion. On one side, some users fear a total financial collapse.

On the other hand, curious people seek particularly simple information about BTC. These internet users are generally complete beginners in the field. They have no prior investment experience. Yet, these educational queries far surpass pessimistic searches. Faced with the decline, the general public is exploring fundamental concepts. The price drop is visibly attracting a whole new audience. 

The digital asset thus retains a consistently strong intrinsic appeal. It now reaches people distant from traditional finance. The renowned platform Binance confirms this overall trend around bitcoin. The company states that millions of individuals discover this universe daily. This sudden enthusiasm for the technology deserves thorough analysis.

The emergence of a new generation of buyers on the network This intense online activity provides very relevant insight. However, these bitcoin queries have not yet translated into immediate investments. The arrival of new capital logically requires an incompressible delay. Internet users first seek to understand how the system works. 

Nonetheless, this educational enthusiasm is a very powerful early indicator. It suggests the emergence of a new cohort of beginner individuals. These novices are currently accumulating knowledge about the Bitcoin network. 

In the long run, they might more easily take the step to purchase. Once the economy stabilizes, their massive arrival will likely support demand. Historically, this learning cycle often precedes a major adoption phase. Current interest thus lays the solid foundations for the next bullish cycle in the crypto market.

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Journaliste et rédacteur web passionné par l’univers des cryptomonnaies et des technologies Web3. J’y traite les dernières tendances et actualités afin de proposer un contenu de haute qualité à un large public du secteur.

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Hedera (HBAR) has moved back into the spotlight after reports revealed that a senior U.S. Department of Transportation official filed a patent outlining a nationwide road-use charging system built on distributed ledger technology. What stands out is the patent’s explicit support for Hashgraph-style systems, directly aligning with Hedera’s architecture.

For investors tracking real-world blockchain adoption, this development reframes the HBAR price outlook from short-term volatility to long-term infrastructure relevance, a narrative that markets tend to price in early.

Government Adoption Narrative: Why It Matters for HBAR PriceUnlike typical crypto headlines, this narrative is not based on partnerships or marketing announcements. It is rooted in a publicly filed patent, describing systems for mileage-based road charges, real-time digital settlement, smart contracts, and privacy-preserving data flows.

These are areas where Hedera’s design stands out: high throughput, fast finality, predictable low fees, and enterprise-grade security. Such features are critical when evaluating technology for national-scale systems, which is why the development has added weight to the broader HBAR price outlook.

Even if adoption unfolds gradually, markets often price in future utility well before execution, especially when the use case involves public infrastructure.

HBAR Price Action Shows Signs of RecoveryOn the technical front, HBAR has printed a Morning Star pattern, a classic bullish reversal signal that typically appears near the end of prolonged downtrends. This formation suggests that downside momentum has faded and buyers are starting to regain control. Following the pattern formation, price has moved higher in a measured and controlled manner, rather than a sharp speculative spike. 

This type of recovery often indicates accumulation rather than short-term trading activity. Importantly, HBAR continues to respect a rising diagonal support, reinforcing the idea that the market structure is stabilizing.

Instead of heavy volatility, HBAR price action shows steady higher lows, signaling that sellers are struggling to push HBAR back into prior demand zones. At present, HBAR appears to be coiling above the key support zone near $0.0900, a behavior commonly seen before trend continuation moves. As long as price holds above this rising base, the technical bias remains constructive.

A clean break above nearby resistance of $0.1100 would likely attract momentum traders, potentially accelerating the move. On the downside, a loss of the ascending support of $0.0900 would delay the bullish scenario, but for now, the structure favors continuation rather than rejection.

This alignment between improving price behavior and strengthening narrative support adds credibility to the current HBAR price outlook.

Final Take: Early Stage of a Bigger Move?This Hedera price analysis suggests HBAR may be transitioning from recovery into early rally formation. The combination of government-linked adoption signals, bullish reversal patterns, and controlled price action places HBAR at a critical inflection point. While confirmation is still required, the market appears to be positioning before momentum fully arrives, rather than reacting after the fact.

If HBAR price continues to respect its rising structure and broader adoption narratives gain traction, the HBAR price outlook could shift decisively toward a sustained upside phase, making the coming sessions particularly important to watch.

Trust with CoinPedia:CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017. All content is created by our expert panel of analysts and journalists, following strict Editorial Guidelines based on E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness). Every article is fact-checked against reputable sources to ensure accuracy, transparency, and reliability. Our review policy guarantees unbiased evaluations when recommending exchanges, platforms, or tools. We strive to provide timely updates about everything crypto & blockchain, right from startups to industry majors.

Investment Disclaimer:All opinions and insights shared represent the author's own views on current market conditions. Please do your own research before making investment decisions. Neither the writer nor the publication assumes responsibility for your financial choices.

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Bitcoin bulls were battling to flip three resistance levels back into support by the end of the week, but history shows they may need to wait another month.

Bitcoin (BTC) is battling three key resistance levels at once, and the end of the bear market may depend on breaking them in March.

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin still faces three resistance levels on the weekly chart after its mid-week gains.

Bitcoin is down 14% in February, the fifth consecutive red month for BTC price.

Bitcoin bulls attempt three support flipsData from TradingView showed the BTC/USD pair hovering around $67,720 after being rejected by the $70,000 psychological level. 

An analysis of the current market structure points to a cluster of barriers that have merged into a resistance area, as shown in the chart below.

The 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $68,330, the old 2021 all-time high at $69,000, and the psychological level at $70,000 are capping the price rebound at the time of writing.

BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewBTC failed to reclaim any of these levels following its climb to $70,040 on Wednesday. Commenting, analyst Captain Faibik said that Bitcoin needs a weekly candlestick close above the 200-week EMA for the bulls to maintain momentum. 

If this happens, “we can then expect a bounce back toward 80k in the coming days,” the analyst said in a recent post on X, adding:

“I think March is going to be a bullish month.” BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Captain Faibik As Cointelegraph reported, the bear market may end if the BTC price breaks above the cost basis of the 18-24-month age band at $74,500.

Bitcoin heads for five straight months of lossesHistorical price data from CoinGlass confirmed Bitcoin is facing its fifth consecutive red month, down 14% in February. The last time this happened was toward the end of 2018 at the depths of the bear market.

“Bitcoin is nearing a rare bearish streak,” Alex said in a recent post on X, adding:

“Last time in 2018 and 2019, the streak was followed by five strong green candles and a 4x rally.” Bitcoin monthly percentage returns. Source: CoinGlassAfter a 57% decline between August 2018 and January 2019, Bitcoin then recorded five consecutive green months, gaining 317% to $13,880 from $3,329.

If history repeats, the reversal could begin in April, particularly as selling pressure nears exhaustion levels.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

TL;DR:

LUNC rallied about 24% to near $0.00004905 as Bitcoin hovered around $67,000 and the broader market stayed flat. Burn metrics showed 32 million tokens burned that day, 224.46 million weekly, and 85.58 billion total, nearly 19% of supply. Volume jumped 466% to about $74.3 million as SEC scrutiny of Jane Street and lawsuit claims tied to TerraUSD’s May 7, 2022 depegging resurfaced. Do Kwon debate returned; LUNC stays far below $117 peak. Terra Luna Classic (LUNC) staged a sharp move, climbing about 24% and printing a session high near $0.00004905, even as the broader crypto market stayed mostly flat. With Bitcoin hovering around $67,000, the rally read less like passive beta and more like a single-name rotation. In that setup, a headline-driven LUNC breakout pulled traders back into a token still shadowed by its 2022 collapse. The move caught attention precisely because the tape was quiet, prompting the obvious question: what, exactly, pushed LUNC higher today, and why it mattered today?

Burns and lawsuit chatter drive the move One of the clearest catalysts was supply reduction. Burn metrics show about 32 million LUNC tokens were burned on the day, pushing the total weekly burn to roughly 224.46 million. It added that around 85.58 billion tokens have been burned so far, described as nearly 19% of total supply. Since the 2022 collapse, community-driven burns have been positioned as a confidence repair tool, and the latest numbers gave that storyline fresh oxygen. For traders, the burn cadence signaled intent and boosted investor optimism. In short, burn momentum reframed the rally as scarcity.

Supply optics were paired with a burst of activity. LUNC’s 24-hour trading volume surged 466% to around $74.3 million, a spike consistent with fast capital rushing into a high-volatility setup. In market structure terms, that kind of volume can validate a move by improving liquidity, but it also raises the odds of sharp reversals if the catalyst fades. With the broader market described as flat, the volume jump stood out as its own signal. It also helped LUNC dominate attention despite muted majors. Put differently, a 466% volume shock confirmed the chase.

Legal headlines added a layer. The SEC has started investigating Jane Street over possible market manipulation in stocks and crypto products. It referenced a lawsuit alleging the firm used insider information to front-run positions and intentionally trigger TerraUSD’s depegging on May 7, 2022, an event described as erasing nearly $40 billion from the crypto market. Some in the LUNC community argue it may have involved an external attack, while online discussion revisited Do Kwon. Even so, lawsuit chatter re-ignited the Terra narrative, with LUNC still far below its historical all-time $117 peak.

It has been a rough stretch for Bitcoin. Prices have been pinned between $60,000 and $70,000 for weeks, and a brief dip below $67,000 on Thursday did little to ease investor nerves.

Now, a handful of analysts are saying the worst of the selling may finally be over — though what comes next is far from exciting.

No Crash, No Boom — Just Patience Crypto analyst Willy Woo put it plainly on X. The wave of bearish selling by investors “seems to have exhausted,” he said, giving Bitcoin some breathing room to trade flat for the next few weeks.

A small bounce toward the mid-$70,000 range is possible. But Woo was clear — that kind of move would almost certainly be pushed back down before it gains any real footing.

His best guess for when the bearish trend actually ends is Q4 2026. A genuine bull run, he said, probably won’t return until Q1 or Q2 of 2027.

This bearish sell down by investors seems to have exhausted, which gives price a repreive to consolidate sideways for maybe a month, even a rebound to mid 70s, which would likely to be rejected.

This is because the broader regime is heavily bearish with both spot and futures… pic.twitter.com/MAUlmBJtbE

— Willy Woo (@willywoo) February 27, 2026

The wait, in other words, is measured in quarters — not weeks. Woo also flagged something that doesn’t show up in Bitcoin’s price chart. Both spot and futures market liquidity are deteriorating at the same time.

That combination, he said, has never historically produced a real Bitcoin rally. Until one or both of those conditions improve, any upward movement is likely to be temporary.

BTCUSD now trading at $67,872. Chart: TradingView Why Did Bitcoin Drop In The First Place? Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan had a straightforward answer to that question. Forget the theories about market manipulation or fears over quantum computing breaking crypto encryption.

According to Hougan, the explanation is simple — people who owned Bitcoin sold it. Some followed the four-year market cycle. Others cashed out to fund investments in AI companies.

Some had no particular reason beyond wanting out. “They are mostly done selling, and we are in the process of bottoming,” he wrote on X.

The conspiracy theories are wild. First it was Binance and then it was Wintermute and then it was an unknown offshore macro hedge fund and then it was paper bitcoin and. today it is Jane Street and next week it will be someone else.

The real reason bitcoin is down is that a…

— Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) February 26, 2026

Spring Will Come New all-time highs will come, he added. “This is a classic crypto winter, and there will be a classic crypto spring.”

For now, Woo’s analysis offers the most grounded take on where things stand. The selling has slowed. The market is catching its breath. But with liquidity still weak and no clear catalyst on the horizon,

Bitcoin’s path forward looks less like a comeback and more like a long, quiet wait — one that, by his own estimate, won’t end until the final months of 2026 at the earliest.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

ZKsync said it will deprecate ZKsync Lite on May 4, freezing the network and shifting focus to Era and ZK Stack.

Flare and Xaman wallet collaborated to enable one-click DeFi access for XRP holders. The integration aims to unlock billions of idle XRP in the Xaman wallet. Flare Network introduced a new one-click DeFi vault in collaboration with Xaman wallet, especially for XRP holders to simplify yield generation while eliminating complicated cross-chain steps, keeping users in full control of their assets.

According to the official update from Flare on February 26, it allows users to deposit XRP into curated DeFi vault strategies directly from their existing Xaman wallet with a single confirmation. 

The Architecture Behind Simplified XRP DeFi The DeFi vault consists of three infrastructure layers. Initially, FAssets, a wrapped version of XRP (FXRP), allows it to interact with DeFi protocols on Flare. Secondly, Flare Smart Accounts enable users to initiate DeFi actions from XRPL wallets while executing via the Flare chain. Lastly, Xaman wallet provides a familiar UI that lets users sign transactions with their existing XRPL keys. 

A new standard for XRP yield.

With Flare Smart Accounts, you can now access fully onchain yield on @upshift_fi — directly from XRPL.

No new wallets.
No new keys.
No gas tokens.
No custody tradeoffs.
No cross-chain complexity.

Now live in @XamanWallet. pic.twitter.com/kQdu2gk9QO

— Flare ☀️ (@FlareNetworks) February 26, 2026 Further, the Flare DeFi vault spans multiple strategies, including lending, liquidity provision, and collateralized borrowing, that reduce reliance on one incentive program and maintain more stable returns, as these strategy is curated and risk-managed by Clearstar, which monitors positions and rebalances funds when necessary.

 As a result, the yield generated is distributed in FXRP and can either be withdrawn or automatically compounded within the vault. Also, more than 60 million FXRP are now being used in structured products and staking programs. The token’s issued supply has exceeded 100 million, which shows that there is at least some willingness to use XRP instead of keeping it dormant.

Unlocking Idle XRP Capital Amid Market Volatility With that, Xaman presently provides access to almost 2 billion XRP, demonstrating how much capital is sitting idle in the economy. Much of the XRP has yet to be used in DeFi, because putting XRP into decentralized finance requires multiple wallets, learning unfamiliar chains, handling gas tokens, and wrapping assets manually. This collaboration intends to remove these hurdles.  

Following this partnership, XRP is trading down in the last 24 hours, slides 2.96% and is trading at $1.40, as it is down more than 26% over a month. Despite continuous market volatility, the cooperation represents a strategic push and could potentially shape the next stage of XRP’s position in decentralized finance.

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Why Dogecoin (DOGE) May Be Approaching Its “Last Dance” Prefer us on Google

Dogecoin shows momentum signals suggesting potential short term rally.Strong Bitcoin correlation supports hopes of renewed upward movement.Analysts predict possible final cycle surge called last dance.Dogecoin (DOGE), the meme coin with the leading market capitalization and liquidity in the crypto market, is showing several potential signs of a new short-term rally.

Analysis from Swissblock and its notable correlation with Bitcoin are raising hopes that DOGE could recover after five consecutive months of decline.

Swissblock Predicts DOGE May Face a “Last Dance”Altcoin Vector, the institutional altcoin research arm of Swissblock, recently pointed out that DOGE’s Impulse index is showing a notable signal. The Impulse index is Swissblock’s proprietary indicator that measures an altcoin’s momentum.

A strong surge in the Impulse indicator could become the final trigger. It could activate a new price rally for DOGE.

DOGE Impulse Performance. Source: Altcoin VectorThe analysis also highlights a notable correlation between Bitcoin and DOGE. The two assets have shown significant alignment over the past several months. Data from DefiLlama shows that the 1-year, 1-month, and 7-day correlation coefficients between BTC and DOGE are 0.79, 0.83, and 0.88, respectively.

In the final week of February, Bitcoin recovered from $62,700 to $67,700. It also showed signs of a return to dip-buying flows. This could be a factor reinforcing Swissblock’s forecast.

Henrik Zeberg, Head of Macroeconomics at Swissblock, presented a bullish scenario for DOGE.

In his latest analysis, he applied Elliott Wave theory. He argued that DOGE is currently in Wave 4 and preparing to enter Wave 5. Wave 5 is the final rally of a major cycle. Therefore, he described the upcoming scenario as a potential “last dance” for DOGE.

Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Structure. Source: SwissblockZeberg compared the structure with historical performance. Wave 1 increased 22x. Wave 3 rose 65x. Wave 5 could still achieve a significant gain of 25x to 53x.

“And if we can start to see Bitcoin bouncing off of this current levels and Ethereum, especially Ethereum doing the same, well then maybe that Dogecoin has one last dance which will take it to a new all-time high despite the fact that this was established on as a joke” – Henrik Zeberg stated.

DOGE’s Recovery Needs More Than Just Technical SignalsFrom a short-term technical perspective, traders also observe a breakout pattern forming. This reinforces the bullish outlook. If the breakout succeeds, DOGE could quickly retest key resistance levels. That would support the argument for a strong final rally within the cycle.

$Doge/4-hour

Contracting Triangle loading 🔥#Dogecoin is squeezing tight between converging trendlines — highs getting lower, lows getting higher. Classic Contracting Triangle pattern building up pressure.

This coil typically resolves with a sharp breakout. Price is… pic.twitter.com/9xscNQzCIe

— Trader Tardigrade (@TATrader_Alan) February 27, 2026 Unlike low-cap meme coins, DOGE has a market capitalization of more than $16 billion and a daily trading volume exceeding $1 billion. Its upward momentum requires strong participation from crowd capital flows.

History shows that this usually happens when DOGE is influenced by major news or by a highly influential figure such as Elon Musk. Therefore, to regain its spotlight, DOGE may need a new narrative. It may need more than technical breakthroughs alone.

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