Market Signal Briefing

The Senate Banking Committee released a draft bill Tuesday that would treat XRP (CRYPTO: XRP), Solana (CRYPTO: SOL), Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE), and more the same way regulators currently treat Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC)—as commodities, not securities.

How Tokens Get Bitcoin-Like TreatmentThe draft specifies that tokens qualify as “non-ancillary assets” if served as the principal asset of an ETF listed on a national securities exchange as of January 1.

That means it escapes SEC securities rules and doesn’t need to file the same disclosures other crypto projects do.

This matters because every altcoin ETF that launched before New Year’s Day just gave those tokens a regulatory hall pass. 

XRP, SOL, DOGE, Litecoin (CRYPTO: LTC), Hedera (CRYPTO: HBAR), and Chainlink (CRYPTO: LINK) all qualify based on ETFs already trading on major exchanges.

What “Non-Ancillary” Actually MeansBitcoin has always been treated as a commodity like gold, regulated by the CFTC.

Most altcoins have lived in regulatory limbo, with the SEC suggesting they might be securities requiring registration.

The bill creates a formal definition of “network tokens”—digital assets tied to blockchain networks that don’t give holders ownership rights, profit shares, or voting control over a company. 

If a token fits that definition and powers a sufficiently decentralized network, it’s a commodity.

The SEC would set standards for measuring decentralization. Once a network passes that test, secondary market trading no longer triggers securities laws, even if the original token sale looked like an investment contract.

Why ETF Sponsors Have Been Waiting For ThisAsset managers have filed applications for XRP ETFs, Solana ETFs, and other altcoin products but couldn’t get approval because regulators wouldn’t confirm whether those tokens are commodities or securities. 

This bill solves that problem by making ETF eligibility itself the proof that a token deserves commodity treatment. 

The bill also protects exchanges and market makers from inheriting regulatory risk just because they handle tokens.

Buying XRP on Coinbase wouldn’t be treated as a securities transaction, even if Ripple’s original XRP sales decades ago were.

Bill Protects DeFi Developers, Bans Stablecoin YieldThe draft includes two ethics provisions: felony conviction rules and insider trading language. 

Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett noted these are the only ethics provisions Banking Committee can include—other ethics rules fall under different committees.

Section 601 protects software developers who build DeFi protocols.

This came after DeFi companies and traditional banks reached a compromise this week following heated negotiations as Banks were worried crypto protocols could be used as loopholes to avoid financial regulations.

The bill also bans crypto companies from paying interest on stablecoins.

This is a major win for traditional banks, who didn’t want stablecoin issuers like Tether or Circle competing by offering yield on dollar deposits.

Thursday Vote Could Open Altcoin ETF FloodgatesThe Senate Banking Committee marks up the bill Thursday, meaning senators can propose changes before voting. 

If it passes as written, the regulatory barrier blocking altcoin ETFs disappears.

That doesn’t guarantee instant approvals, but asset managers who shelved applications for Solana ETFs or XRP ETFs would have a clear legal path to resubmit.

Jordan Jefferson, Founder of DogeOS, said the immediate impact would be less about prices and more about compliance, as a clearer statutory path widens the set of institutions allowed to engage with these tokens.

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Strive Inc. (ASST) and Semler scientific (SMLR) were affected in the stock market. Their share prices declined following the acceptance to sell Semler Scientific to Strive. The acquisition broadens the Bitcoin-specific treasury of Strive but also coincided with the current selling pressure on both shares.

Are Bitcoin Treasury Strategy Hurting Stocks? Strive Inc. has affirmed in the official statement that it will purchase Semler Scientific in a 100% stock buy. Strive will acquire the 5,048.1 Bitcoin held by Semler, as part of the deal.

The corporation also declared that it has added a fresh 123 BTC to its corporate treasury. After the announcement, the ASST and SMLR stock prices dropped throughout the trading session.

Data by TradingView revealed that ASST dropped by more than 12% and SMLR dropped by close to 10%. The price response implies that the investors are concerned with risks associated with dilution and short-term uncertainty and not the long-term Bitcoin exposure.

Strive (ASST) shares fell as investors reacted to dilution risks This development reflects recent halts in corporate Bitcoin strategies. A recent example was when a David Beckham-backed company halted its Bitcoin treasury following the pressure of the investors.

The combined business will have 12,797.9 Bitcoin after the acquisition completion. This positions Strive as the eleventh largest corporate holder of Bitcoin in the world. The cumulative Bitcoin holdings would surpass the holdings of Tesla and Trump Media.

Strive Bets on Bitcoin Treasury Model Strive said the acquisition aligns with its goal of increasing Bitcoin per share over time. The firm describes itself as a Bitcoin treasury company rather than a traditional asset manager.

Management believes Bitcoin-based balance sheets can outperform conventional corporate strategies over long periods. That view has found recent market support, as Bitcoin accumulation lifts stock prices of firms reporting rapid balance sheet expansion

Semler Scientific was among the first U.S. public firms to adopt Bitcoin as a primary treasury asset. The company acquired Bitcoin through equity, debt and operating cash flows. Its business segment is focused on medical devices and diagnostics of chronic diseases.

Strive will monetize the operating business of Semler upon the deal closing. It will also redeem the $100 million convertible note by Semler and a Coinbase loan of $20 million.

These measures are dependent on market requirements and schedule of implementation. The company indicated that it will ensure that its capital structure remain simplified.

Bitcoin and altcoins rallied today, January 13, as market participants reflected on the encouraging U.S. consumer inflation data and the progress of the CLARITY Act.

Summary

Bitcoin and most altcoins were in the green today, January 13. The U.S. published an encouraging consumer inflation report. The Senate Banking Committee published the text of the CLARITY Act. Bitcoin (BTC) rose for the third consecutive day, reaching an intraday high of $93,500. Dash (DASH) jumped by 55%, while Monero (XMR) rose by 20%. Other top gainers included tokens like Story, Internet Computer, Pump, and World Liberty Financial.

Bitcoin and altcoins rally triggered by US inflation data  One main reason Bitcoin and altcoins rose was that the Bureau of Labor Statistics published an encouraging US inflation report.

Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained at 2.7% in December as the core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy products, dropped from 2.7% to 2.6%.

Monthly US CPI inflation came in as expected at 0.3% for both core and headline measures.
Annual headline inflation is 2.7% (as expected) and core 2.6% (somewhat lower than expected).
This data release will not change rate expectations in any significant manner — that is to say,… https://t.co/ZkeoPoaie6

— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) January 13, 2026 These numbers indicate that Trump’s tariffs have not had a significant impact on inflation. Also, there are signs that inflation will continue moving downwards as gasoline prices and mortgage rates drop. 

Mortgage rates dropped to 6.2%, and the drop will continue falling as Fannie Mae starts buying as part of President Trump’s directive to buy mortgage securities worth $200 billion.

Inflation may also drop, albeit slightly, if the U.S. Supreme Court rules that Trump’s tariffs were illegal on Wednesday, January 14.

Falling inflation and a softening labor market suggest the Federal Reserve may deliver additional interest rate cuts this year. The bank’s dot plot suggested it would cut interest rates this year.

CLARITY Act tailwinds  The crypto rally is also happening as market participants react to the new Market Structure Bill, which is commonly known as CLARITY Act. 

This bill will simplify U.S. crypto regulations by clarifying the respective roles of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. 

The CFTC, which is seen as more friendly, will regulate most coins, while the SEC will regulate issuers and the issuance of digital assets sold as part of an investment contract.

Looking ahead, the bill will go through the markup process in the committee on Thursday, followed by a full Senate vote at a later date  

Bitcoin and altcoins are up as futures open interest rose to over $138 billion and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index moved to 45. The index is showing signs of moving into the greed zone soon, which would be positive for the crypto market.

Key Takeaways AT&T launched IoT Network Intelligence to improve enterprise visibility across distributed connected devices.The platform tracks signal strength, throughput and latency to speed troubleshooting and cut downtime.AT&T is expanding its IoT portfolio to capture growth as rivals like Verizon and T-Mobile invest heavily. AT&T, Inc. (T - Free Report) recently introduced the AT&T IoT Network Intelligence, a leading-edge solution designed to enhance enterprise visibility across its connected devices ecosystem. Businesses across sectors are rapidly incorporating IoT devices to streamline workflow and improve organizational efficiency. However, new problems are arising with these growing digital transformation efforts.

Companies often lack the visibility of how IoT devices are performing on the network. When a device fails to function properly, organizations are often not able to understand the root cause of the issue. This leads to slow and costly troubleshooting and increases downtime, ultimately leading to dissatisfaction from end users.

AT&T IoT Network Intelligence brings leading-edge features to ensure comprehensive visibility into the distributed IoT network of the organization. It efficiently ensures visibility into several critical components such as signal strength, data throughput, and latency. Access to such key performance indicators allow organization to swiftly take action and ensure faster troubleshooting. The solution’s insightful analytics provide greater opportunities for improvement, and also showcase how IoT devices perform in different geographic areas. Such innovative features can effectively bolster IoT visibility, intelligence and security, streamline operations across multiple sectors such as healthcare, transportation, logistics and more.

Per a report from Fortune Business Insights, the global IoT market was valued at $864.32 billion in 2025. It is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 24.3% from 2025 to 2030. AT&T is expanding its portfolio offering to capitalize on this market trend.

How are Competitors Faring?AT&T faces competition from Verizon Communications, Inc. (VZ - Free Report) and T-Mobile, US, Inc. (TMUS - Free Report) in the IoT connectivity space. T-Mobile offers a comprehensive portfolio of IoT network technologies that include Narrowband IoT, LTE-M, LTE and 5G. The technologies support a wide range of use cases such as smart meters, industrial sensors, fleet management, asset tracking and many other applications. T-Mobile is collaborating with Deutsche Telekom drive advancement in IoT technology.

Verizon has developed a platform like ThingSpace that supports businesses at various stages of IoT development, from prototyping to enterprise-ready. It also offers a wide range of network technologies to support the different requirements of IoT devices. Verizon is also expanding collaboration with various IoT OEMs to ensure their device compatibility with the Verizon network.

T’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesAT&T has gained 8.9% over the past year against the industry’s decline of 0.3%.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation standpoint, AT&T trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.5, below the industry tally of 11.49.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Earnings estimates for 2025 have increased 0.49% to $2.06 over the past 60 days, while those for 2026 have remained unchanged.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

AT&T currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

HomeETFs and Funds AnalysisETF Analysis

SummaryState Street SPDR Global Dow ETF (DGT) is rated 'Buy' for global diversification, while SPGM is rated 'Hold' due to valuation and concentration risks.DGT offers superior valuation metrics, less concentration risk, and a more diversified sector and geographic allocation compared to SPGM.Both funds outperformed the S&P 500 in 2025, but underperformed over 3- and 5-year periods; both are currently overbought on technicals.I recommend waiting for a pullback to the 50-week SMA before initiating a position in DGT, given elevated RSI levels. imaginima/iStock via Getty Images

2025 saw record inflows into international ETFs. As mentioned in my previous article on the iShares MSCI Intl Quality Factor ETF, Morningstar reports that the dollar weakness seen in 2025 could provide an opportunity for investors looking to

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Delta Air Lines Inc (NYSE:DAL) stock fell almost 3% as the airline reported mixed earnings for the fourth quarter, driven in part by a government shutdown, which impacted travel by 2 points.

For the December quarter, earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.55, slightly above the Wall Street consensus of $1.53.

However, adjusted revenue of $14.61 billion fell short of the expected $14.72 billion, and passenger revenue totaled $12.92 billion, underperforming the $13.07 billion forecast.

Delta reported operating revenue of $16 billion and operating income of $1.5 billion, yielding an operating margin of 9.2%.

For the full year, Delta posted record revenue and achieved a double-digit return on invested capital.

“The Delta team delivered a strong close to our Centennial year, demonstrating the differentiation and durability we’ve built,” Delta CEO Ed Bastian said in a statement. “Our industry-leading performance delivered for our customers and our employees, while creating value for our owners, consistent with our long-term financial framework.”

Looking ahead, Delta expects 2026 earnings to grow about 20% year-over-year. For the March quarter, the airline projects revenue growth of 5% to 7% compared with the same period in 2025.

Looking for a stock that has been consistently beating earnings estimates and might be well positioned to keep the streak alive in its next quarterly report? Ameriprise Financial Services (AMP - Free Report) , which belongs to the Zacks Financial - Investment Management industry, could be a great candidate to consider.

This financial services company has an established record of topping earnings estimates, especially when looking at the previous two reports. The company boasts an average surprise for the past two quarters of 2.28%.

For the most recent quarter, Ameriprise was expected to post earnings of $9.6 per share, but it reported $9.92 per share instead, representing a surprise of 3.33%. For the previous quarter, the consensus estimate was $9 per share, while it actually produced $9.11 per share, a surprise of 1.22%.

Price and EPS Surprise

Thanks in part to this history, there has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for Ameriprise lately. In fact, the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) for the stock is positive, which is a great indicator of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with its solid Zacks Rank.

Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Ameriprise currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.92%, which suggests that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This positive Earnings ESP when combined with the stock's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) indicates that another beat is possibly around the corner.

When the Earnings ESP comes up negative, investors should note that this will reduce the predictive power of the metric. But, a negative value is not indicative of a stock's earnings miss.

Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, but that may not be the sole basis for their stocks moving higher. On the other hand, some stocks may hold their ground even if they end up missing the consensus estimate.

Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Have you been searching for a stock that might be well-positioned to maintain its earnings-beat streak in its upcoming report? It is worth considering Ameren (AEE - Free Report) , which belongs to the Zacks Utility - Electric Power industry.

When looking at the last two reports, this utility has recorded a strong streak of surpassing earnings estimates. The company has topped estimates by 2.17%, on average, in the last two quarters.

For the most recent quarter, Ameren was expected to post earnings of $2.1 per share, but it reported $2.17 per share instead, representing a surprise of 3.33%. For the previous quarter, the consensus estimate was $1 per share, while it actually produced $1.01 per share, a surprise of 1.00%.

Price and EPS Surprise

Thanks in part to this history, there has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for Ameren lately. In fact, the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) for the stock is positive, which is a great indicator of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with its solid Zacks Rank.

Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Ameren has an Earnings ESP of +0.22% at the moment, suggesting that analysts have grown bullish on its near-term earnings potential. When you combine this positive Earnings ESP with the stock's Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), it shows that another beat is possibly around the corner.

When the Earnings ESP comes up negative, investors should note that this will reduce the predictive power of the metric. But, a negative value is not indicative of a stock's earnings miss.

Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, but that may not be the sole basis for their stocks moving higher. On the other hand, some stocks may hold their ground even if they end up missing the consensus estimate.

Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Looking for a stock that has been consistently beating earnings estimates and might be well positioned to keep the streak alive in its next quarterly report? S&P Global (SPGI - Free Report) , which belongs to the Zacks Securities and Exchanges industry, could be a great candidate to consider.

This independent ratings and analytics provider has seen a nice streak of beating earnings estimates, especially when looking at the previous two reports. The average surprise for the last two quarters was 5.87%.

For the most recent quarter, S&P Global was expected to post earnings of $4.4 per share, but it reported $4.73 per share instead, representing a surprise of 7.50%. For the previous quarter, the consensus estimate was $4.25 per share, while it actually produced $4.43 per share, a surprise of 4.24%.

Price and EPS Surprise

For S&P Global, estimates have been trending higher, thanks in part to this earnings surprise history. And when you look at the stock's positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction), it's a great indicator of a future earnings beat, especially when combined with its solid Zacks Rank.

Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

S&P Global has an Earnings ESP of +1.70% at the moment, suggesting that analysts have grown bullish on its near-term earnings potential. When you combine this positive Earnings ESP with the stock's Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), it shows that another beat is possibly around the corner. The company's next earnings report is expected to be released on February 10, 2026.

Investors should note, however, that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss, but a negative value does reduce the predictive power of this metric.

Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, but that may not be the sole basis for their stocks moving higher. On the other hand, some stocks may hold their ground even if they end up missing the consensus estimate.

Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

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The S&P 500 has been so incredibly resilient in 2026. It’s been less than two weeks since we rang in the new year, but the broad market has already been rocked with a number of macro events, which I would have thought would pave the way for greater volatility and perhaps downside to kick off 2026.

Either way, the S&P is in the green year to date, and markets were quite quick to shrug off initial concerns surrounding the investigation of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Is the market ignoring the growing slate of risks? Or is the market’s resilience a sign that it’s time to stick with the proven winners for 2026, as the AI revolution makes its next big move?

Time will tell, but either way, there are potentially sizeable catalysts that might be able to take the following growth titans higher well into the year’s end. Even as macro uncertainties rise, long-term investors might wish to stick with the following trio of plays:

Apple Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is looking like dead money to start the year, with shares now down just over 3% year to date despite the looming catalyst that is the big Siri update. With the rumored Apple-Google AI deal officially inked this week, it’s a mystery to me as to why Apple shares weren’t gaining more ground on the news.

Undoubtedly, it’s not a shocking news event by any stretch. A deal with Google has already been on the radar of investors for months now. Either way, I think it’s about time that skeptics had stopped giving the iPhone maker a hard time about being behind in AI.

With the latest Google Gemini deal, Apple may have bought its way to the front of the pack, even ahead of other big frontier AI firms that have been spending heavily to secure their spot. If you’re worried about AI overspending risks, I think Apple stock is the way to go. With the latest Google deal, I view Apple as a company positioned to get an AI boost with far less spend.

Perhaps Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities put it best: 2026 is a “monumental year for Apple and Cook to finally bring Cupertino into the AI revolution era.” He’s right. And with a lack of action to start the year, Apple stock might be positioned to overdeliver against some pretty modest expectations ahead of the big Siri update.

Amazon Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is another Magnificent Seven firm that has lagged the market over the past year. Though shares have heated up in 2026, spiking close to 9% to date, I think there’s a good shot that the recent bout of strength is the start of something more significant.

Whether we’re talking about the pickup in AWS momentum, further advances in warehouse robots (it’s supposed to be the year of physical AI, after all), the grocery retail push, the potential behind its LLMs in Alexa+ and Rufus, the rise of its agentic AI solutions, or its underrated robotaxi service Zoox, there’s no shortage of catalysts to look forward to in 2026. Arguably, Amazon might have the most unappreciated growth drivers of all the Mag Seven names.

With so many bullish analysts pounding the table on the stock to start the year, it’s hard not to view the e-commerce titan as a standout value pick while shares go for less than 35 times trailing price-to-earnings (P/E). Of course, it’s been difficult to stick with the lagging Mag Seven stock in recent years, but with one of the strongest slates of AI products, I do think Amazon is poised to rise out of the AI revolution as one of the biggest monetizers of the technology.

Perhaps it won’t take long before investors view Amazon’s lofty AI expenditures as money well spent rather than a high-risk move with a high risk of ending in tears.

Looking for a stock that has been consistently beating earnings estimates and might be well positioned to keep the streak alive in its next quarterly report? Boot Barn (BOOT - Free Report) , which belongs to the Zacks Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, could be a great candidate to consider.

This Western apparel and footwear retailer has seen a nice streak of beating earnings estimates, especially when looking at the previous two reports. The average surprise for the last two quarters was 10.49%.

For the last reported quarter, Boot Barn came out with earnings of $1.37 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.26 per share, representing a surprise of 8.73%. For the previous quarter, the company was expected to post earnings of $1.55 per share and it actually produced earnings of $1.74 per share, delivering a surprise of 12.26%.

Price and EPS Surprise

With this earnings history in mind, recent estimates have been moving higher for Boot Barn. In fact, the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) for the company is positive, which is a great sign of an earnings beat, especially when you combine this metric with its nice Zacks Rank.

Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Boot Barn has an Earnings ESP of +3.98% at the moment, suggesting that analysts have grown bullish on its near-term earnings potential. When you combine this positive Earnings ESP with the stock's Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), it shows that another beat is possibly around the corner. The company's next earnings report is expected to be released on February 4, 2026.

With the Earnings ESP metric, it's important to note that a negative value reduces its predictive power; however, a negative Earnings ESP does not indicate an earnings miss.

Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, though this is not the only reason why their shares gain. Additionally, some stocks may remain stable even if they end up missing the consensus estimate.

Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Looking for a stock that has been consistently beating earnings estimates and might be well positioned to keep the streak alive in its next quarterly report? Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL - Free Report) , which belongs to the Zacks Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, could be a great candidate to consider.

This company has an established record of topping earnings estimates, especially when looking at the previous two reports. The company boasts an average surprise for the past two quarters of 8.58%.

For the most recent quarter, Kinsale Capital Group was expected to post earnings of $4.79 per share, but it reported $5.21 per share instead, representing a surprise of 8.77%. For the previous quarter, the consensus estimate was $4.41 per share, while it actually produced $4.78 per share, a surprise of 8.39%.

Price and EPS Surprise

With this earnings history in mind, recent estimates have been moving higher for Kinsale Capital Group. In fact, the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) for the company is positive, which is a great sign of an earnings beat, especially when you combine this metric with its nice Zacks Rank.

Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Kinsale Capital Group currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.71%, which suggests that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This positive Earnings ESP when combined with the stock's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) indicates that another beat is possibly around the corner.

When the Earnings ESP comes up negative, investors should note that this will reduce the predictive power of the metric. But, a negative value is not indicative of a stock's earnings miss.

Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, but that may not be the sole basis for their stocks moving higher. On the other hand, some stocks may hold their ground even if they end up missing the consensus estimate.

Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Have you been searching for a stock that might be well-positioned to maintain its earnings-beat streak in its upcoming report? It is worth considering Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM - Free Report) , which belongs to the Zacks Mining - Gold industry.

This gold mining company has an established record of topping earnings estimates, especially when looking at the previous two reports. The company boasts an average surprise for the past two quarters of 14.37%.

For the most recent quarter, Agnico was expected to post earnings of $1.76 per share, but it reported $2.16 per share instead, representing a surprise of 22.73%. For the previous quarter, the consensus estimate was $1.83 per share, while it actually produced $1.94 per share, a surprise of 6.01%.

Price and EPS Surprise

For Agnico, estimates have been trending higher, thanks in part to this earnings surprise history. And when you look at the stock's positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction), it's a great indicator of a future earnings beat, especially when combined with its solid Zacks Rank.

Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Agnico currently has an Earnings ESP of +26.22%, which suggests that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This positive Earnings ESP when combined with the stock's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) indicates that another beat is possibly around the corner. We expect the company's next earnings report to be released on February 12, 2026.

When the Earnings ESP comes up negative, investors should note that this will reduce the predictive power of the metric. But, a negative value is not indicative of a stock's earnings miss.

Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, but that may not be the sole basis for their stocks moving higher. On the other hand, some stocks may hold their ground even if they end up missing the consensus estimate.

Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

If you are looking for a stock that has a solid history of beating earnings estimates and is in a good position to maintain the trend in its next quarterly report, you should consider Apple (AAPL - Free Report) . This company, which is in the Zacks Computer - Micro Computers industry, shows potential for another earnings beat.

This maker of iPhones, iPads and other products has seen a nice streak of beating earnings estimates, especially when looking at the previous two reports. The average surprise for the last two quarters was 8.75%.

For the last reported quarter, Apple came out with earnings of $1.85 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.73 per share, representing a surprise of 6.94%. For the previous quarter, the company was expected to post earnings of $1.42 per share and it actually produced earnings of $1.57 per share, delivering a surprise of 10.56%.

Price and EPS Surprise

For Apple, estimates have been trending higher, thanks in part to this earnings surprise history. And when you look at the stock's positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction), it's a great indicator of a future earnings beat, especially when combined with its solid Zacks Rank.

Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Apple currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.41%, which suggests that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This positive Earnings ESP when combined with the stock's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) indicates that another beat is possibly around the corner. We expect the company's next earnings report to be released on January 29, 2026.

With the Earnings ESP metric, it's important to note that a negative value reduces its predictive power; however, a negative Earnings ESP does not indicate an earnings miss.

Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, though this is not the only reason why their shares gain. Additionally, some stocks may remain stable even if they end up missing the consensus estimate.

Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation (AP - Free Report) investors have been experiencing some short-term gains from the stock of late. Shares of the Carnegie, PA-based manufacturer of highly-engineered, high-performance specialty metal products and customized industrial equipment have surged 155.8% in the past three months compared with the industry’s 19.2% rise. The stock also outperformed the sector and the S&P 500’s 8.9% and 6.4% gains, respectively, in the same time frame.

A major development of AP in recent months includes the announcement of its promising third-quarter 2025 results in November 2025. In the third quarter, the company reported year-over-year revenue growth and a clear improvement in underlying profitability. Performance benefited from stronger demand and improved margins in the Air and Liquid Processing (ALP) segment, while pricing and shipments of forged engineered products helped offset softer roll volumes.

Management noted steady demand across key end markets, easing supply-chain conditions, and expects recent portfolio rationalization actions to support stronger profitability going forward. However, results were weighed down by exit-related charges associated with the shutdown of underperforming operations.

AP’s Three Months Price Comparison
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Over the past three months, the stock’s performance has remained strong, outperforming that of its peers like Friedman Industries, Incorporated (FRD - Free Report) and TechPrecision Corporation (TPCS - Free Report) . Friedman and TechPrecision’s shares have lost 4.2% and 6.1%, respectively, in the same time frame.

Despite ongoing headwinds such as tariff-related uncertainty, customer inventory adjustments and broader macroeconomic risks impacting industrial demand, the favorable share price movement indicates that the company might be able to maintain its positive market momentum at present.

Ampco-Pittsburgh operates through its Forged and Cast Engineered Products and ALP segments, supplying engineered rolls, forged products, pumps, heat exchangers and custom air-handling systems to a diversified global customer base. Demand is supported by activity across industrial, energy, nuclear and manufacturing end markets. These multiple growth drivers reflect robust growth potential.

AP’s Strong Fundamentals Weigh InOne factor supporting the stock is Ampco-Pittsburgh’s ongoing portfolio rationalization and strategic exits. Management has taken decisive steps to wind down underperforming operations, including the U.K. cast roll facility and a non-core steel distribution business. These actions are expected to remove structural drags on profitability, simplify operations and improve the quality of earnings, reinforcing investor confidence in AP’s long-term strategy.

Ampco-Pittsburgh is also benefiting from strengthening demand across key end markets, particularly within the ALP segment. Management highlighted solid activity in pumps, heat exchangers and custom air-handling systems, supported by nuclear power projects, U.S. Navy programs and industrial and pharmaceutical applications. This diversified demand base provides greater visibility and resilience amid macro and trade-related uncertainty.

Ampco-Pittsburgh continues to make progress through improving operational execution and pricing discipline. The company has leveraged better product mix, pricing actions and cost control initiatives, while largely passing through tariff-related costs to customers. These efforts have supported underlying margin expansion and a more stable financial outlook, contributing to improving sentiment toward the stock.

Challenges Ahead for Ampco-PittsburghAP faces challenges from tariff-related uncertainty and trade policy changes, which can disrupt customer ordering patterns and create short-term demand volatility. In addition, seasonality and operational disruptions — such as scheduled plant shutdowns, particularly within European operations — can temporarily weigh on production levels, shipment volumes and manufacturing efficiency. These factors may lead to quarter-to-quarter variability in performance, even as underlying demand across key end markets remains supportive.

AP Stock’s ValuationAmpco-Pittsburgh’s trailing 12-month EV/Sales of 0.5X is lower than the industry’s average of 1.9X but higher than its five-year median of 0.4X.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Friedman and TechPrecision’s trailing 12-month EV/Sales currently stand at 0.3X and 1.5X, respectively, in the same time frame.

Our Final Take on Ampco-PittsburghAmpco-Pittsburgh appears well-positioned, supported by improving operational execution, a more focused business portfolio and exposure to diversified industrial end markets. Management’s actions to streamline operations and strengthen underlying profitability have enhanced the company’s outlook, which may encourage existing investors to continue holding the stock amid improving sentiment. New investors could also be drawn by the recent positive trend in the share price.

From a valuation standpoint, the stock trades below the industry average, suggesting that the market has yet to fully price in AP’s improving fundamentals. While valuation remains modest relative to peers, this could offer upside potential if execution remains on track. Accordingly, existing investors may consider holding the stock at current levels, while prospective investors could watch for favorable entry points.

Joe Terranova, Senior Managing Director for Virtus Investment Partners, joins CNBC's "Halftime Report" to detail his latest buy in the energy sector.

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Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $92,176.63 (+1.62% 24h) on Tuesday, as spot defended the $92,000–$92,300 band that desks have treated as the near-term line in the sand.

CoinMarketCap reported a 24-hour range of $90,055.02 to $92,567.54, which places the current price within ~0.4% of the session high after buyers absorbed the last dip under $91k. Tight range. Tight patience.

Options and Futures SetupMomentum gauges look like a grind, not panic. The more tradeable tell sits in derivatives positioning: Deribit’s BTC options book has recently pushed into the $40B+ open interest zone during heavy expiry cycles, with put-call ratios in reported snapshots finishing below 1.0 on large expiries. That structure matches a market where larger accounts keep upside exposure funded while selling downside vol into support.

On the futures side, leverage capacity remains large enough to force discontinuous moves once spot exits the compression. CoinMarketCap’s derivatives note pegged aggregate BTC futures open interest around $35.8B, a size that historically amplifies liquidation cascades in both directions once price breaks a well-watched level.

For macro desks that benchmark off institutional-grade prints, the CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index (BRTI) recently printed $90,801.89 on its last displayed update, anchoring where systematic execution desks likely marked collateral and intraday risk during the prior leg.

Key Levels and Dealer HedgingA $92k hold with call-heavy options positioning matters because gamma flows start doing the work once spot reclaims the top of the day’s range ($92,567).

If spot clears that level, dealers who are short calls often hedge by buying futures, which tightens liquidity and accelerates the move. If spot loses $90,055 (today’s low), the same leverage stack that kept realized vol muted can flip into forced selling fast when perps unwind.

David Pokima

David is a finance journalist and a contributor to Cryptonews.com with a keen interest in breaking comprehensive, accurate, and reliable blockchain news.

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Bitcoin’s (BTC) 52-week correlation with gold reached zero for the first time since mid-2022 and may turn negative by the end of January.

Key takeaways:

BTC–gold divergence has historically preceded strong Bitcoin rallies.

Liquidity trends and cycle fractals point to BTC leading the way with a $144,000–$150,000 price target.

Past fractals show Bitcoin rallying after goldIn the past four comparable instances, Bitcoin rallied by an average of 56% within roughly two months after its correlation with gold turned negative.

BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingViewBitcoin broke this pattern in May 2021, when it fell roughly 26% instead of rallying.

Back then, Tesla had suspended Bitcoin payments, while China had intensified its crackdown on mining and trading, triggering forced deleveraging across the market and overriding the historical correlation signal.

The current setup looks bullish due to several macro tailwinds, including rising global liquidity (as tracked by the global M2 supply) and the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening.

“Historically, Bitcoin bull markets have aligned with periods of increased global liquidity,” said Matt Hougan, the global head of research at Bitwise Asset Management, in their latest report, adding:

“As a new monetary easing cycle has begun globally and with the Fed’s QT program ending, it is likely that we will see this growth rate continue to the upside throughout 2026, a positive catalyst for Bitcoin’s price.” Global M2 and Bitcoin year-over-year percentage change. Source: FidelityUnder the same macro conditions, gold surged 65% in 2025, while Bitcoin’s returns were almost flat. But, according to Hougan, BTC will take the lead over gold in 2026.

“Although gold and Bitcoin occasionally move in tandem, their long-term correlation is only mildly positive, which we somewhat counterintuitively find attractive,” he wrote, adding:

“This suggests Bitcoin can potentially enhance a portfolio’s risk-adjusted returns without adding a ‘levered gold’ asset.”Analyst Tuur Demeester echoed a similar sentiment, saying that “accelerated money printing remains a major tailwind for Bitcoin” in 2026.

Bitcoin mirroring 2020-2021 bull cycleA 56% rally will push the BTC price into the $144,000-150,000 price range.

A similar bullish case emerged from a long-term fractal shared by crypto analyst Midas, who compared Bitcoin’s current structure with its 2020–2021 cycle.

BTC/USD 2020-2021 vs. 2024-2026 cycle comparison. Source: MidasThe chart showed BTC completing a prolonged downtrend, followed by a multi-month accumulation phase and a steady pre-bull breakout, a sequence that previously preceded a parabolic advance toward $70,000.

In the current 2024–2026 setup, Bitcoin appears to be following the same course, with price already transitioning out of accumulation and into a pre-parabolic phase.

The next leg could resemble the prior bull expansion, placing $150,000 as a primary target if the fractal continues to play out.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

TL;DR (70 words total)

Bitget is marketing bot copy trading as a two-sided workflow, letting users automate strategies while enabling creators to package ideas others can follow. For users, the appeal is consistent execution and fewer real-time decisions, but oversight matters because preset rules can behave differently as market regimes shift. For platforms, governance becomes the differentiator since bots can scale behavior across accounts, making accountability and guardrails central to product credibility. Bitget is pitching bot copy trading as a two-sided product: a way for users to automate strategies and a way for creators to package ideas others can follow. The link describes trading bots as algorithm-driven tools that can execute preset buy instructions under predefined conditions, shifting effort from constant monitoring to setup and review. The headline signal is that automation is being positioned as a mainstream workflow, not a niche experiment. That pitch lands as traders chase repeatability while still worrying about what preset logic might miss when conditions turn abruptly against them.

Copy trading bots move from novelty to product strategy On the user side, the promise is operational clarity: fewer ad hoc decisions, more consistent execution, and a tighter loop between a plan and what actually happens in the market. Once a strategy becomes set and run, oversight becomes the real job, since preset rules can behave differently when volatility, liquidity, or trend regimes shift. The value is convenience, but the hidden cost is that users must translate trust into controls they can explain and enforce. For platforms, product design has to anticipate error paths as much as best cases and communicate limits before losses.

On the creator side, copy trading bots invite a marketplace dynamic: creators can standardize what they do, publish it, and compete on performance and transparency rather than charisma. If more creators participate, users get more choice, and the platform gets a richer catalog that can be discovered and compared over time with clearer benchmarks and faster feedback loops. The strategic bet is that creator supply can compound, turning individual strategies into an ecosystem that keeps users engaged. That only works if creators communicate what a bot is built to do, and what it is not.

The bigger implication is governance. Once algorithmic tools are widely used, the debate shifts from will this trade work to what assumptions did the rules embed, and who is accountable when conditions change. Because bots can scale behavior across many accounts, a small design flaw can become a big operational event. The practical test is whether automation expands participation responsibly, or whether it accelerates mistakes at scale when presets meet reality. Either way, bot copy trading is being sold as a core capability, not a side feature, and that changes how platforms justify their value.

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Bitmine Immersion Technologies has been making a statement with its assertive accumulation and staking of Ethereum. In just a few months, the company has assembled one of the largest known ETH treasuries held by a publicly traded firm, moving steadily toward its stated ambitious goal of controlling 5% of the total Ethereum supply. 

According to a recent disclosure, Bitmine is now holding about 4.17 million Ethereum (ETH) tokens, which is about 3.45% of the total circulating supply. Furthermore, the company’s total staked ETH tally has now surpassed 1.2 million tokens. 

Heavy Stakes And A Clear Target Bitmine is now the largest fresh money buyer of ETH in the world, and its string of ETH purchases has kept many Ethereum investors on the edge of their seats on how this might affect the price of the altcoin. 

Bitmine Immersion has funneled about $3.9 billion worth of Ethereum into staking under the leadership of Tom Lee, a move that shows conviction in ETH’s long-term prospects and the company’s desire to generate yield for its investors. Notably, the company’s total staked ETH tally has now surpassed 1.2 million tokens, bringing it close to 70 percent of the way toward its self-proclaimed “Alchemy of 5%” target of owning 5% of all Ethereum in circulation.

Bitmine’s approach to staking is starting to be much more than passive yield. The company is preparing to launch its own Made in America Validator Network (MAVAN), which it says will be among the largest ETH staking infrastructures in the ecosystem once live. 

This means Bitmine is now looking to transition from simply holding and staking Ether through third parties to becoming a staking infrastructure provider. If all of Bitmine’s staked ETH were managed through MAVAN and its partners at current rates, Ethereum staking fees could generate about $370 million for the company.

Growing The Balance Sheet To Sustain Ethereum Accumulation Bitmine’s balance sheet extends well past its staking operations. The company now holds a diversified pool of assets spanning Bitcoin, Ethereum, other digital assets, and cash, with total holdings valued at around $14 billion, including its just over 4 million ETH. 

Interestingly, the company has continued to add to its holdings in recent weeks, even as it increases its liquid cash position. The most recent purchase was of 24,266 ETH last week.

At the same time, the company made a corporate decision that it says is critical to sustaining this strategy of steadily accumulating more Ethereum tokens. Notably, Bitmine is now seeking a positive 50.1% shareholder vote to increase its authorized share count at its upcoming annual stockholder meeting scheduled for January 15, 2026. 

According to the company, the current authorization of 500 million shares is close to being fully utilized, and once that limitation is reached, its ability to continue acquiring Ethereum at the current pace would slow down massively.

ETH trading at $3,141 on the 1D chart | Source: ETHUSDT on Tradingview.com Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.

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Scott Matherson is a leading crypto writer at Bitcoinist, who possesses a sharp analytical mind and a deep understanding of the digital currency landscape. Scott has earned a reputation for delivering thought-provoking and well-researched articles that resonate with both newcomers and seasoned crypto enthusiasts. Outside of his writing, Scott is passionate about promoting crypto literacy and often works to educate the public on the potential of blockchain.

Matter Labs CEO Alex Gluchowski shared the ZKsync 2026 roadmap, which aims for real-world infrastructure to support adoption. The roadmap aims to expand its existing products, Prividium, ZK Stack, and Airbender, to support real-world use cases. ZKsync is positioning 2026 around real-world adoption and unveils a roadmap with a goal of expanding its existing products to strengthen its zero-knowledge infrastructure to support enterprise and real-world use cases, with the aim of being a key player in the next phase of blockchain infrastructure.  

Matter Labs CEO and Co-founder Alex Gluchowski, behind the invention of ZKsync, an Ethereum Layer 2 scaling solution, revealed the 2026 roadmap on his X handle, as the main mission is to increase adoption of ZKsync’s products by keeping focus on certain important standards such as privacy by default, deterministic control, verifiable risk management, and native connectivity to global markets.

With that,  Gluchowski wrote, “we recognized early that no one else in crypto was better positioned to do this work. We made a deliberate decision to build for real-world constraints rather than industry shortcuts. That meant rejecting many practices that are popular in this industry but incompatible with a serious, long-term approach.”

ZKsync’s 2026 Roadmap As Gluchowski said that the 2025 existing technologies would unlock new classes of applications. First is Prividium, a private-based blockchain, used to build private applications, expanding this to a tool for banks and other enterprises seeking to incorporate privacy directly into their workflows and systems. 

Second, the blockchain toolkit ZK Stack will develop into a single location for creating particular application blockchains with simple access to shared services, execution, and liquidity across several chains. “The result is that ZK Stack becomes the default choice for building appchains,” he added.

Third, he spoke about Airbender, which is ZKsync’s settlement proving engine, generating zero-knowledge proofs that securely verify and finalize transactions on Ethereum. It aims to work beyond ZKsync, to become the standard zero-knowledge virtual machines across crypto and beyond.

Also, the crypto adoption is being from enterprises due to missing infrastructure, not just regulation. “With Incorruptible Financial Infrastructure in place, ZKsync provides the foundations required for real-world deployment,” he said. With that, he also mentioned, ZKsync’s other major focus is on deepening institutional partnerships rather than wide, speculative adoption. 

Highlighted Crypto News Today: 

Grayscale Expands Watchlist With AI, DeFi, and Consumer Crypto Tokens

Former Binance CEO, Changpeng Zhao (CZ), recently stated that the UAE generates surplus power in order to cover “three days” of high demand each year, making Bitcoin a buyer of last resort for energy that would otherwise go unused.

Stripping away the specifics, the logic holds: mining turns curtailed or stranded electricity into revenue when no other offtaker wants it.

The question for 2026 isn't whether surplus can be mined, but whether that surplus is structural enough to contract, and whether miners can hold their position as AI and high-performance computing push up the clearing price for firm supply.

The economics are straightforward. Electricity accounts for more than 80% of miners' cash operating expenses, according to Cambridge's Digital Mining Industry Report.

The same report cites a median electricity-only cost of around $45 per megawatt-hour and notes that surveyed miners curtailed 888 gigawatt-hours of load in 2023, roughly 101 megawatts of average withheld capacity.

That curtailment figure supports the flexible-load thesis: miners can switch off when grids need relief or when prices spike, making them useful to utilities managing intermittency or congestion.

Geography tells the rest of the story. While imperfect in methodology, the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index Mining Map tracks where hashrate concentrates, though the data carries caveats, such as estimates lagging by one to three months, and VPN or proxy routing can inflate shares in countries like Germany and Ireland.

Country attribution relies on geolocating IP addresses, a method that is sensitive to routing behavior and subject to other inference limitations.

Within those constraints, the map shows mining distributed across jurisdictions with one thing in common: access to power that's either cheap, stranded, or both.

Pakistan turns overcapacity into policyPakistan made the most explicit bet. The government announced plans to allocate 2,000 megawatts in the first phase of a national initiative split between Bitcoin mining and AI data centers, with CZ named strategic adviser to the Pakistan Crypto Council.

The Finance Ministry framed it as a way to monetize surplus generation in regions with excess energy, turning underutilized capacity into a tradable asset.

Two thousand megawatts running continuously would generate 17.52 terawatt-hours annually. With modern mining fleets operating at 15 to 25 joules per terahash, that power could theoretically support 80 to 133 exahashes per second of hashrate before accounting for curtailment, power usage effectiveness, or downtime.

The scale matters less than the structure.

What type of contracts will miners sign, interruptible or firm baseload? Which regions get selected, and how durable is the policy if tariffs rise or IMF pressure intensifies?

Pakistan's initiative signals that “extra electrons” can become a national export, but execution will determine whether 2,000 megawatts materializes as a hub or just a headline.

Surplus by design, not accidentThe UAE's opportunity isn't perpetual surplus, but it's surplus-by-design.

Peak demand in Dubai reached 10.76 gigawatts in 2024, up 3.4% year-over-year, concentrated in summer months when cooling dominates load.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that cooling and desalination will account for close to 40% of electricity demand growth in the Middle East and North Africa through 2035, with data centers explicitly named as another rising load source.

That creates a specific opening for miners: utilities build systems to handle high summer peaks but need year-round monetization, normalization, and grid stability during off-peak periods.

Miners win where they can offer more flexibility than AI or HPC buyers, such as curtailment-ready loads that absorb power others can't take because of location, congestion, or dispatch constraints.

Bitcoin miners can switch off in an instant, whereas datacenters require continuous operation, making curtailment and grid management much more difficult.

The region's buildout trends favor baseload capacity that outpaces seasonal demand, but the same IEA outlook that flags data centers as a driver of demand means miners face direct competition for the electrons they need.

The hub case depends on whether utilities value dispatchable load enough to price it attractively, or whether firm offtake contracts with AI buyers crowd out mining altogether.

When surplus becomes contestedParaguay illustrates what happens when surplus power attracts miners, only to trigger a backlash.

The country's hydro capacity attracted operators seeking cheap electricity, but tariff changes repriced that advantage. Miners now reportedly pay between $44.34 and $59.76 per megawatt-hour plus taxes, and local industry sources cited 35 companies ceasing operations after the increase.

Law No. 7300 tightened penalties for electricity theft linked to unauthorized crypto mining, raising maximum sentences to 10 years and allowing the confiscation of equipment.

Nevertheless, real capital still flows in. HIVE completed Phase 1 infrastructure at a 100 megawatt facility backed by a fully energized 200 megawatt substation, signaling that some operators see durable economics even after repricing.

The tension is clear: hydro surplus creates the initial draw, but once miners scale, the state re-prices power when it realizes they're a concentrated, taxable offtaker, or local grid constraints and noise externalities build political pressure.

Paraguay's trajectory shows how a hub can flip if social license breaks, making policy durability a first-order variable in any site-selection model.

Cooling and desalination account for 36% of MENA electricity demand growth, while data centers represent under 10% globally through 2030.What actually makes a hubMining hub viability in 2026 comes down to a formula: delivered cost per megawatt-hour times contract flexibility times policy durability, measured against what AI and HPC buyers are willing to pay, grid scarcity, and foreign-exchange or import friction.

Three scenarios play out across those variables.

In the first, curtailment gluts persist: renewables add faster than grids can absorb, curtailment rises, and miners win as flexible offtake. Hydro- or seasonal-surplus jurisdictions with weak transmission, such as Paraguay, or countries explicitly monetizing overcapacity, such as Pakistan, are the likeliest hubs.

In the second, AI outbids miners for firm power. Data centers seek long-term firm supply, pushing miners into interruptible, congestion-prone, or stranded pockets. Hubs emerge where miners can access interruptible pricing or “can't-export” energy rather than prime firm capacity.

In the third, political repricing or backlash reshapes the landscape. Governments raise tariffs once miners scale or when households see shortages or noise. Paraguay becomes the template: a hub flips when the economics that attracted miners get recalibrated by the same state that built them.

Paraguay and lower-tier Dubai industrial rates fall below the Cambridge benchmark, while Pakistan's industrial tariff exceeds $144 per megawatt-hour.The IEA's framing matters here. Global electricity demand is forecast to grow at a roughly 4% annual rate through 2027, driven by industrial output, air conditioning, electrification, and data centers.

Renewable capacity additions are accelerating, but grid integration lags. That lag creates the curtailment and congestion that miners can monetize, but it also means surplus is a moving target.

The hubs that survive 2026 aren't just cheap-power jurisdictions, but also places where curtailment or congestion is likely to persist, regulation tolerates mining as dispatchable load, and miners can compete with or complement AI and HPC for electrons.

The checklistSix variables determine whether a jurisdiction becomes a mining hub or just a headline.

Surplus type is the first. Is it hydro seasonality, stranded gas, flare mitigation, or nuclear baseload off-peak? Each has different persistence and contractability.

The delivered cost and contract structure follow as the second variable. What's the all-in price per megawatt-hour, and is the contract interruptible? Who bears congestion risk, and is there compensation for curtailment?

Then comes the ASIC import and logistics, such as customs duties, shipping lanes, spare parts availability, and capital controls, all of which affect speed-to-market and operational risk.

Policy durability is the fourth variable: tariff repricing risk, licensing requirements, sudden bans, and theft enforcement determine whether a hub stays a hub.

Climate, cooling, and water also play a part. Air-cooling limits, immersion feasibility, and heat or noise externalities constrain where large-scale operations can operate without triggering local opposition.

The last variable is offtake competition: AI and HPC demand growth is now explicitly reflected in electricity demand forecasts. Hubs must assume competition for “good electrons,” not just cheap ones.

Pakistan's 2,000 megawatt plan is the clearest signal that governments see surplus electricity as an exportable asset class, with mining as one monetization path.

Jurisdiction1) Surplus / curtailment type2) Delivered $/MWh + contract structure3) ASIC import/logistics + FX4) Policy durability5) Climate/cooling + water6) Offtake competition (AI/HPC)Pakistan⚠️ Overcapacity framed as policy (“regions with excess energy”), but persistence/seasonality not yet proven⚠️ Price & terms TBD (headline MW ≠ delivered $/MWh; key is interruptible vs firm + curtailment comp)❌ FX/import friction likely (capital controls, shipping/customs uncertainty)⚠️/❌ Execution risk (tariff politics + IMF scrutiny could force repricing or slow rollout)⚠️/❌ Hot climate → higher cooling load/PUE unless sited in cooler regions❌ Direct competition (initiative explicitly includes AI data centers; firm power may get bid up)UAE (Dubai/GCC lens)⚠️ “Surplus-by-design” (systems built for summer peaks → off-peak monetization potential)❌/⚠️ Published tariffs are high; mining needs special contracts/curtailment-ready pricing to work✅ Best-in-class logistics (ports, spares, finance; low friction scaling)✅ Generally stable permitting environment (but energy pricing is the swing variable)❌ Extreme heat makes cooling a first-order constraint; water/heat externalities matter❌ High competition (data centers expanding; miners likely pushed to interruptible/constrained pockets)Paraguay✅ Hydro surplus draw (Itaipú-style abundance is the core “hub” attractor)⚠️ Still competitive but repriced (tariff hikes + taxes; economics depend on contract specifics)⚠️ Landlocked/logistics add time/cost; manageable but not “plug-and-play”❌ Durability risk (tariff repricing + enforcement pressure = hub can “flip”)✅ More forgiving climate than GCC; easier cooling profile✅ Lower AI/HPC bidding pressure vs major metro markets (for now)Whether that path leads to 2026's next major hubs depends on execution, including contract terms, site selection, and whether the political consensus holds as miners start consuming gigawatt-hours at scale.

CZ's thesis about Bitcoin as a buyer of last resort is correct in principle. The practice is messier, contingent on grids that can't absorb renewables fast enough, states that tolerate flexible loads, and miners who can stay competitive as data centers bid up the price of firm power.

The hubs that emerge will be the ones where those conditions align long enough to build infrastructure and sign contracts that survive the first tariff revision or the first summer blackout.

Mentioned in this article

Posted In: Bitcoin, AI, Mining

The largest cryptocurrency is now facing a key "resistance" zone at $93,500-$95,000, which has capped its price for nearly two months.

Bitcoin was transitioning out of what one outlet described as its “most stressed phase,” according to a developing report from Sherwood News. The report pointed to easing pressure in market plumbing rather than a single headline catalyst, though it did not provide a full set of figures or a precise timestamp for the shift.

The move was framed as a change in conditions that had previously signaled strain, including measures tied to leverage, liquidity, and forced selling. Some details were not disclosed. Several key inputs behind the assessment were not fully itemized in the report.

Core details The Sherwood News report described Bitcoin as moving away from peak stress conditions that had built up during a period of heightened volatility and tighter liquidity. It characterized the change as a transition, not a clean break, and did not claim that stress had disappeared.

The report did not specify which exact indicators it relied on, or whether the assessment was based on exchange data, derivatives positioning, on-chain metrics, or a combination. It also did not name a single event that triggered the shift. That leaves open whether the change was driven by price action, reduced leverage, improved market depth, or a decline in liquidation pressure.

Bitcoin’s spot price at the time of publication was not provided in the source summary, and no intraday move was disclosed. The report also did not state whether the easing was visible across major venues, including US-based exchanges and offshore platforms, or concentrated in a subset of markets.

Market stress in crypto is often discussed in terms of funding rates, basis trades, stablecoin flows, and liquidation cascades. Sherwood News did not confirm which of those measures had improved. The scope of the “most stressed phase” also remained unclear, including when it began and how long it lasted.

Background context Bitcoin stress episodes typically follow sharp price declines, sudden volatility spikes, or rapid shifts in derivatives positioning that force traders to unwind. In those windows, liquidity can thin out, spreads can widen, and leveraged positions can be closed at unfavorable prices. That can create a feedback loop. Fast.

In recent months, crypto markets have repeatedly toggled between risk-on bursts and risk-off pullbacks, often tracking macro catalysts such as interest-rate expectations, dollar strength, and shifts in equity volatility. The Sherwood News framing placed the latest change in the category of internal market healing rather than a macro-driven rally, though it did not rule out external drivers.

Another common source of stress is concentrated positioning in perpetual futures, where funding rates can swing sharply when one side of the trade becomes crowded. When funding turns extreme, it can signal overheating and raise the odds of liquidations if price moves against the dominant side. The report did not say whether funding had normalized.

Stablecoins and exchange reserves can also matter. Traders often use stablecoins as collateral, and rapid redemptions or shifts between venues can tighten liquidity. Sherwood News did not provide details on stablecoin flows, redemption activity, or whether exchange balances changed in a way that supported its conclusion.

Market and technical implications If Bitcoin is moving out of a peak-stress regime, one implication is that forced selling may be less dominant in near-term price formation. In stressed phases, liquidations and margin calls can drive price more than discretionary buying and selling. When that pressure eases, price can trade more in line with spot demand and broader risk sentiment.

Another implication is for derivatives basis and hedging costs. When stress is high, hedging can become expensive, and the spread between spot and futures can behave erratically. A calmer regime can reduce the cost of carrying hedges and can improve execution for large orders. Sherwood News did not quantify any change in basis or spreads.

Liquidity conditions also affect institutional activity. Some asset managers and proprietary trading firms scale exposure based on market depth and slippage. If depth improves, larger trades can clear with less impact. No data was provided on order-book depth, and no major firm was cited as changing its posture.

Regulatory and operational factors can still override technical healing. US policy signals, enforcement actions, and banking access for crypto-linked firms can tighten or loosen liquidity quickly. The Sherwood News item did not tie the easing stress to any regulatory development, and no regulator comment was referenced.

Reactions and competing views The Sherwood News characterization is one lens on market conditions, and other analysts often use different stress dashboards. Some focus on realized volatility and options skews, while others prioritize on-chain measures such as short-term holder profitability or exchange inflows. The report did not cite third-party dashboards or name analysts who agreed with its assessment.

In crypto, “stress” can also mean different things depending on the segment. Spot markets can look stable while derivatives remain stretched, or vice versa. A reduction in liquidation volume can coexist with fragile liquidity if market makers stay cautious. The report did not clarify whether the easing was broad-based across spot, perps, and options.

Another competing view is that stress can migrate rather than disappear, shifting from Bitcoin to other tokens, or from centralized exchanges to decentralized venues. Without venue-level data, it is difficult to confirm whether the improvement was concentrated in Bitcoin markets alone. Sherwood News did not address spillovers to ether or major altcoins.

Some market watchers also treat “transitioning out” language as a sign of stabilization, not a signal of renewed upside. The report did not make a price call. It focused on conditions. That distinction matters.

Next developments Several points remain unconfirmed from the Sherwood News report, including which indicators improved, over what time window, and whether the easing was sustained for more than a brief period. Without those details, the market cannot easily compare the current episode with prior stress events.

Traders and risk managers typically look next to derivatives positioning, funding rates, and options-implied volatility for confirmation that stress is fading. They also watch stablecoin supply changes and exchange inflows for signs of renewed selling pressure. The report did not provide a checklist of confirming signals.

Another open question is whether any large holders, miners, or institutional desks changed behavior in a way that reduced stress, such as slowing sales, rolling hedges, or adding liquidity. No such actors were named, and no disclosures were cited.

Further clarity may depend on additional reporting, updated market data, or commentary from exchanges and analytics firms that track liquidations and leverage in real time. Sherwood News did not say when it would publish more detail, and key inputs behind the “most stressed phase” description were not fully explained.

This article was written with AI assistance and reviewed by the The Currency analytics editorial team. Information presented is sourced from publicly available reports. The Currency analytics strives for accuracy but cannot guarantee completeness. This article does not constitute financial advice.

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