Market Signal Briefing

HomeMarketsU.S. & CanadaMarket ExtraMarket ExtraTraffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped off amid warnings from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. What happens next could have major implications for the global economy.Published: March 1, 2026 at 1:18 p.m. ET

As investors wait for global futures markets to reopen on Sunday, all eyes are on the global market for crude oil.

The big question: Will this weekend’s attack on Iran — which the U.S. military has called Operation Epic Fury — result in an increase in oil prices that is only temporary and relatively measured? Or will energy prices surge, revitalizing inflation and spreading economic misery around the world?

Duolingo (DUOL 14.01%) built its business on a simple yet powerful idea: Give the product away, then convert a small percentage of engaged users into paying subscribers. For years, that formula worked.

Now, at scale, it faces another test. The question in 2026 isn't whether Duolingo can attract users. It's whether it can deepen subscriber economics without weakening engagement.

Image source: Getty Images.

Conversion matters more than downloads With more than 50 million daily active users, Duolingo no longer struggles for attention. The platform's global brand and habit-forming mechanics continue driving strong engagement across markets.

But raw user growth is no longer the key metric. At this size, incremental downloads don't automatically translate into durable revenue. What matters now is whether paid subscribers grow faster than total users. That signals improving monetization efficiency and a strengthening conversion engine.

If paid subscribers stop outpacing total user growth, revenue expansion will eventually compress, regardless of how impressive headline engagement appears. Scale without improving conversion ultimately limits earnings power. In 2025, paid subscriber penetration improved -- for instance, it grew from 8.5% to 9% in the third quarter. This trend needs to continue.

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ARPU and retention must move together Duolingo has introduced higher-priced subscription tiers offering advanced AI-powered features and enhanced learning tools. That supports average revenue per user (ARPU). But pricing power only strengthens the business model if retention holds steady. As such, investors should monitor these metrics in 2026 and beyond:

ARPU growth trends Churn rates across premium tiers Subscriber growth relative to free users If ARPU rises while churn remains stable, lifetime value expands. That improves customer acquisition economics and supports higher long-term margins. If churn rises alongside pricing, the math deteriorates. Short-term revenue gains can undermine long-term value if subscriber quality weakens.

The long-term math driving the multiple The most durable subscription platforms expand lifetime value (LTV) faster than acquisition costs. That dynamic supports premium valuation multiples. When LTV grows predictably, investors reward the business with patience. When churn creeps higher or conversion slows, that premium can disappear quickly.

And that's what Duolingo must demonstrate in 2026: that premium tiers enhance value rather than extract short-term revenue. If it does, it will translate into stronger, more durable earnings power, which, in turn, justifies high valuation metrics.

What does it mean for investors? Duolingo has already proven that the freemium model works. Now it must prove the economics strengthen at scale. If subscriber growth remains healthy, ARPU continues to expand responsibly, and churn stays under control, the long-term compounding story remains intact in 2026. If conversion slows or retention weakens, investors may reassess the model's durability.

In short, the most important number isn't the number of downloads. It's the durability of its paid subscriptions.

James P. Zallie, President and CEO of Ingredion (INGR +0.33%), reported the sale of 9,958 shares of common stock in an open-market transaction on Feb. 18, 2026, according to a SEC Form 4 filing.

Transaction summaryMetricValueShares sold (direct)9,958Transaction value$1.16 millionPost-transaction shares (direct)33,010Post-transaction value (direct ownership)$3.84 millionTransaction value based on SEC Form 4 reported price ($116.55); post-transaction value based on Feb. 18, 2026 market close ($116.42).

Key questionsWhat is the impact on Zallie's direct ownership and broader insider exposure?
Zallie's direct holdings were reduced from 42,968 to 33,010 shares, representing 0.0520% of the company's outstanding shares as of the latest report, and he maintains no indirect or derivative positions reported in this filing.Is there any indication this transaction reflects a change in sentiment or is out of pattern?
The sale was executed pursuant to a pre-established Rule 10b5-1 plan and falls within the typical cadence and capacity-driven reduction observed in Zallie's recent trading history.Company overviewMetricValueRevenue (TTM)$7.22BNet income (TTM)$729MDividend yield2.79%1-year price change (as of Feb. 28, 2026)-10.04%

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Company snapshotIngredion is a global ingredient solutions provider that produces and sells starches, sweeteners, corn oil, protein feeds, and specialty food ingredients derived from corn and other starch-based materials. It serves food and beverage manufacturers, animal nutrition producers, and industrial clients globally across North America, South America, Asia-Pacific, and EMEA regions.

What this transaction means for investorsIn addition to serving as President and CEO, Zallie was appointed Chairman of the Board of Ingredion on Feb. 11, 2026. He was unanimously elected as Chair after former Chair Gregory Kenny announced his decision to step down.

This move and Zallie’s sale of shares shouldn’t concern investors. Board member reshuffling is common among businesses, and Zallie’s transaction was part of a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan, which allows insiders to plan the purchase or sale of shares in advance. Last week, 33k of his direct shares were sold as part of the plan.

What may be of concern to investors though is that the company had a rather lackluster Q4 earnings report for its fiscal year 2025.

While net income and earnings per share (EPS) grew year-over-year, revenue declined during that period. In addition, the company posted its third consecutive quarter of decline in net income and EPS after starting the fiscal year strongly. The company is still recovering from global impacts on its production, so that is something investors may want to monitor.

Adé Hennis has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Ingredion. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Devon Energy (DVN +2.04%) shareholders will end up owning 54% of the overall company after its merger with Coterra Energy (CTRA +1.93%) is completed. While this is being billed as a merger, it is really more of an acquisition, with Coterra shareholders receiving 0.7 Devon shares for every Coterra share they own. That said, this pairing looks like a very attractive growth opportunity for Devon.

The quickest way to grow Devon Energy doesn't actually need to buy another company to grow its business. The U.S. onshore energy company can simply drill more wells. That, however, is a slow and tedious process, and it has to be juxtaposed against depletion. Every barrel of oil Devon pulls from the ground is one less barrel it has to produce in the future. A quicker way to grow is to buy another company, which also adds more developable land to support future growth.

Image source: Getty Images.

As a stand-alone business, Devon expects to produce around 850 million barrels of oil a day in 2026. The merger with Coterra will bump that figure up to around 1.6 million, effectively doubling the company's production capacity. This is clearly a very big deal for Devon Energy.

It's about more than just production In addition, bringing Devon and Coterra together will strengthen Devon's business in two regions, enabling material cost synergies. In total, Devon believes it has $1 billion in synergies to realize. But Coterra also brings with it exposure to the Marcellus shale region, which will expand Devon's reach from five key operating markets to six. So Devon is growing its scale in other ways, too.

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The tie-up also keeps Devon humming along. Following the merger, it will have over a decade of inventory to develop as it continues to grow its oil production the slow and steady way. Basically, buying Coterra is a quick way for Devon to get both bigger and better.

Keep your expectations in check Devon has a strong history of acquiring other energy companies, so this is likely to be a solid deal that proceeds quickly and efficiently. What it doesn't change is the nature of the company's oil and natural gas business. Volatile commodity prices will still play the biggest role in the company's performance. So while the merger is exciting and positive news, Devon is still appropriate only for more aggressive investors willing to take on the stock swings that usually accompany fast-changing oil and natural gas prices.

Reuben Gregg Brewer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Like many people, I'm becoming increasingly anxious about the impact AI will have on my income. That's hastening my desire to achieve financial freedom. Doing so would ease the burden if my income from working took a big hit.

A key aspect of my strategy is to invest in high-quality, high-yielding dividend stocks. They supply me with growing streams of passive income, inching me closer to achieving financial freedom. Three high-yield dividend stocks I'm eager to buy this month are Enterprise Products Partners (EPD +0.45%), Invitation Homes (INVH +0.04%), and W.P. Carey (WPC +0.54%). Here's why I can't wait to add to my positions this March.

Image source: Getty Images.

27 years and counting Enterprise Products Partners is a leading energy midstream company. The master limited partnership (MLP) operates pipelines, processing plants, and export terminals crucial to the energy sector. Long-term, fixed-rate contracts and government-regulated rate structures underpin most of its assets, enabling the MLP to generate very durable cash flows.

The energy infrastructure giant currently has a distribution yield of more than 6%. That's several times higher than the S&P 500 (1.1% yield), enabling me to generate more income from every dollar I invest.

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The MLP's high-yielding payout is on a rock-solid foundation. It generated enough cash to cover its payout by a comfortable 1.7 times last year. Meanwhile, it has the best balance sheet in the energy midstream sector. That gives it ample financial flexibility to fund its continued growth.

Enterprise Products Partners currently has $4.8 billion in major capital projects under construction, which should enter commercial service through the end of next year. They'll give the MLP more fuel to continue increasing its high-yielding distribution, which it has done for 27 consecutive years.

My rental property replacement Investing in rental properties can be a great way to generate passive income. Invitation Homes makes it easy to invest in rental properties without the high upfront costs and hassles of managing tenants. The real estate investment trust (REIT) is a leader in owning and managing single-family rental homes. Its leased homes generate stable rental income while its property management business produces steady management fees. These income streams support its 4.5%-yielding dividend.

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The REIT has a conservative dividend payout ratio and balance sheet. That enables it to steadily expand its rental property portfolio. It will buy homes off the open market, from other investors, and directly from builders. Last year, nearly all of the more than 2,400 homes it bought were through builder relationships. It funded most of those new investments by selling existing homes to families who were purchasing them for their own use.

In addition to its growing rental property portfolio, Invitation Homes benefits from rising rental income as leases expire and it signs new ones at higher rates. Additionally, the company is expanding its property management business and recently bought leading build-to-rent developer ResiBuilt Homes to enhance its in-house development capabilities. The REIT's multiple growth drivers support its ability to increase its dividend. Invitation Homes has raised its payment every year since its IPO in 2017.

A steadily rising income stream W.P. Carey is also a REIT. It owns a diversified portfolio of mission-critical retail, warehouse, industrial, and other properties secured by long-term, net leases with built-in rent escalations. Net leases produce very stable rental income because tenants cover all property operating costs. That supports W.P. Carey's 4.9%-yielding dividend.

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The REIT has a conservative dividend payout ratio and a strong balance sheet. That enables it to expand its portfolio. W.P. Carey invested a record $2.1 billion last year and plans to invest between $1.3 billion and $1.7 billion in 2026.

Rising rental income from existing leases and incremental income from new investments support the REIT's growing dividend. W.P. Carey has increased its dividend every quarter since resetting the payout in late 2023 following its strategic decision to exit the office sector. Before that, it had raised its dividend at least once a year for a quarter century.

Higher income now and even more in the future Enterprise Products Partners, Invitation Homes, and W.P. Carey are great fits for my passive-income investment strategy. They all pay high-yield dividends backed by stable cash flows and strong financial profiles. The trio also grow their payouts, which should continue. Their attractive and steadily rising income streams should help me reach financial freedom faster, which is why I can't wait to buy more shares of each one this March.

New York, New York--(Newsfile Corp. - March 1, 2026) - WHY: Rosen Law Firm, a global investor rights law firm, reminds purchasers of common stock of Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ: RARE) between August 3, 2023 and December 26, 2025, inclusive (the "Class Period"), of the important April 6, 2026 lead plaintiff deadline.

SO WHAT: If you purchased Ultragenyx common stock during the Class Period you may be entitled to compensation without payment of any out of pocket fees or costs through a contingency fee arrangement.

WHAT TO DO NEXT: To join the Ultragenyx class action, go to https://rosenlegal.com/submit-form/?case_id=52472 or call Phillip Kim, Esq. toll-free at 866-767-3653 or email [email protected] for information on the class action. A class action lawsuit has already been filed. If you wish to serve as lead plaintiff, you must move the Court no later than April 6, 2026. A lead plaintiff is a representative party acting on behalf of other class members in directing the litigation.

WHY ROSEN LAW: We encourage investors to select qualified counsel with a track record of success in leadership roles. Often, firms issuing notices do not have comparable experience, resources, or any meaningful peer recognition. Many of these firms do not actually litigate securities class actions, but are merely middlemen that refer clients or partner with law firms that actually litigate the cases. Be wise in selecting counsel. The Rosen Law Firm represents investors throughout the globe, concentrating its practice in securities class actions and shareholder derivative litigation. Rosen Law Firm has achieved, at that time, the largest ever securities class action settlement against a Chinese Company. Rosen Law Firm was Ranked No. 1 by ISS Securities Class Action Services for number of securities class action settlements in 2017. The firm has been ranked in the top 4 each year since 2013 and has recovered hundreds of millions of dollars for investors. In 2019 alone the firm secured over $438 million for investors. In 2020, founding partner Laurence Rosen was named by law360 as a Titan of Plaintiffs' Bar. Many of the firm's attorneys have been recognized by Lawdragon and Super Lawyers.

DETAILS OF THE CASE: According to the lawsuit, defendants provided investors with material information concerning Ultragenyx's expected results for its Phase III Orbit and Cosmic Studies, which tested setrusumab (UX 143) in patients with Osteogenesis Imperfecta ("OI"). Defendants' statements included, among other things, confidence in setrusumab's ability to ultimately trigger a decrease in the OI patients' annualized fracture rate, alongside confidence in the study designs to demonstrate such ability and reduce testing variability that could interfere with such a result.

The lawsuit claims that defendants provided these overwhelmingly positive statements to investors while simultaneously disseminating materially false and misleading statements and/or concealing material adverse facts concerning the true state of setrusumab's potential, as well as the true risk inherent in the study protocols put forth; notably, that while setrusumab does increase material bone density, this increase does not correlate to a decrease in annualized fracture rates or otherwise, that the Phase III Orbit and Cosmic studies were much less likely to be able to demonstrate such a link than management claimed. The lawsuit claims that such statements absent these material facts caused Ultragenyx shareholders to purchase Ultragenyx securities at artificially inflated prices. When the true details entered the market, the lawsuit claims that investors suffered damages.

To join the Ultragenyx class action, go to https://rosenlegal.com/submit-form/?case_id=52472 or call Phillip Kim, Esq. toll-free at 866-767-3653 or email [email protected] for information on the class action.

No Class Has Been Certified. Until a class is certified, you are not represented by counsel unless you retain one. You may select counsel of your choice. You may also remain an absent class member and do nothing at this point. An investor's ability to share in any potential future recovery is not dependent upon serving as lead plaintiff.

Follow us for updates on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-rosen-law-firm, on Twitter: https://twitter.com/rosen_firm or on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/rosenlawfirm/.

Attorney Advertising. Prior results do not guarantee a similar outcome.

-------------------------------

To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/285712

Source: The Rosen Law Firm PA

Ready to Announce with Confidence? Send us a message and a member of our TMX Newsfile team will contact you to discuss your needs.

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Leading commercial real estate service company Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated contributed positively to performance during the fourth quarter. Best-in-class industrial REIT Prologis, Inc. contributed positively to performance during the fourth quarter, aided by the company's strong third quarter financial report, coupled with management's robust multi-year business outlook. Investors appear worried that CoStar's Apartments.com: Apartments and Homes for Rent business may face increased competition from Zillow Rentals due to its lower price point.

Shares of Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA +0.50%) (BRKB +0.45%) have been in focus as the conglomerate clarifies the future of its investment operations following a major leadership transition. For years, investors have wondered exactly how the company's massive equity portfolio would be handled once Warren Buffett stepped down and Greg Abel officially took the reins as chief executive officer. In Berkshire's recent annual update, the market finally got a clear answer.

The update confirmed that Abel will be the primary executive overseeing the Berkshire equity portfolio. For context, Berkshire executive Ted Weschler will manage just 6% of the holdings.

This leaves the lion's share firmly under Abel's control and continues the company's anti-bureaucratic culture, as it was championed by the famed investor Warren Buffett, enabling Berkshire to be nimble and quick when investment opportunities present themselves.

Image source: Getty Images.

A massive portfolio and plenty of dry powder This is a massive responsibility. Not only does Berkshire's equity portfolio currently sit at close to $320 billion, but the company has a massive war chest of cash that Abel has admitted in the company's 2025 annual update that he'd rather have invested in "productive businesses over U.S. Treasuries."

By keeping the vast majority of these investment decisions concentrated under Abel rather than outsourcing them, the company is signaling continuity. In addition, it shows that Abel recognizes the critical role equity selection plays in Berkshire's long-term value.

For context, Weschler managing 6% of the equity portfolio still represents a huge sum -- roughly $19 billion. But it still leaves the overwhelming majority of the public market investments firmly under Abel's direct supervision.

And Berkshire's cash balance is even bigger. The company's cash and short-term investments closed the year at a staggering $373.3 billion.

Investment decisions will be key The recent volatility in Berkshire's underlying business operations underscores the pressure on the conglomerate to make exceptional investment decisions.

Operating earnings for the fourth quarter fell roughly 30% year over year to $10.2 billion. That pace was a slowdown from the prior quarter, driven largely by the insurance underwriting segment, which generated $1.6 billion in operating earnings -- a decline of more than 54% year over year. But zooming out, full-year operating earnings came in at $44.5 billion. While that represents a 6% decline from 2024, it still sits comfortably above the company's five-year average, demonstrating the conglomerate's business strength and robust profitability.

But while Berkshire's operating performance is important, you could argue that what the company will do with its equity portfolio and its huge pile of cash could move the needle even more.

During the company's annual update, Abel acknowledged this massive cash position, noting that much of it serves as dry powder for future opportunities.

"Many times in Berkshire's history, some observers have suggested that our substantial cash position signals a retreat from investing," Abel wrote in the annual shareholder letter. "It does not. We continue to evaluate many opportunities and will remain patient and disciplined in pursuing the right ones for the benefit of our owners."

The repurchase constraint With all of this said, there is an interesting specific constraint when deploying that capital into Berkshire's own shares.

The latest letter to shareholders suggests that Abel will repurchase stock only after consulting with Berkshire's chairman, Warren Buffett.

Requiring consultation implies that the bar for buying back the stock remains tied to strict, conservative valuation limits that Abel outlined in the letter.

"We will buy back Berkshire shares when they trade below our estimate of intrinsic value, conservatively determined," Abel explained, "ensuring that repurchases enhance per-share value for continuing owners."

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Looking ahead Overall, I believe it's good news to see Abel managing nearly the entire portfolio. It's a good sign that the company's capital-allocation culture will remain similar to when Buffett was CEO.

Trading at about 1.6 times book value today, the market is implicitly pricing in that Abel's stewardship of the equity portfolio and the operating businesses will continue to generate steady, durable returns.

But I believe that's a reasonable expectation.

So, now that investors have a little more insight into how Berkshire will be managed, does the stock look compelling?

I think shares are worth holding onto for the long haul. In fact, I'd argue the valuation is quite attractive given the quality of the company's assets and Abel's potential to deploy more cash into productive assets over time. Additionally, Berkshire offers incredible resilience during a very uncertain time.

HomeStock IdeasQuick Picks & Lists

SummaryWe added to our senior housing investment theme by purchasing shares of Ventas, Inc. Ventas is an operator of senior housing, life science, and medical office buildings.We began acquiring shares of Champion Homes, Inc. during the quarter.During the quarter, we exited the Fund’s position in Vornado Realty Trust, an owner and developer of premier office and street retail properties concentrated in New York City and reallocated the capital to real estate companies that we believe have superior near-term growth.We trimmed the Fund’s positions in American Tower Corporation and Taylor Morrison Home Corporation but maintain ownership positions in both companies. Kathrin Ziegler/DigitalVision via Getty Images

The following segment was excerpted from the Baron Real Estate Fund Q4 2025 Shareholder Letter.

Recent Activity Top net purchases for the quarter

Quarter End Market Cap($B) Net Amount Purchased($M) Ventas, Inc. (

This week, NEAR Intents, the universal liquidity protocol for on-chain markets and tokenized assets, announced the launch of near.com, a new consumer super-app running on crypto rails. This announcement comes alongside the introduction of Confidential Intents, a confidentiality layer for cross-chain execution and the NEAR Intents fee switch, a programmatic revenue-sharing model that shares fees with partners routing transactions through NEAR Intents.

Built on NEAR Intents infrastructure, near.com unifies cross-chain activity into a single account, empowering users to swap assets, execute confidential transactions, and trade peer-to-peer across more than 35 blockchains. Built on infrastructure that has powered more than $13 billion in cross-chain volume for partners including Ledger, SwapKit, and RHEA Finance, near.com simplifies DeFi by eliminating manual gas management and bridging. Through intent-based execution, near.com allows users to define outcomes rather than transaction paths, delivering exchange-grade execution while maintaining user confidentiality and control.

As part of the near.com launch, NEAR Intents is also introducing Confidential Accounts, powered by a NEAR private shard and trusted execution environment (TEE) based architecture. Confidential Accounts provide restricted transaction visibility to help mitigate frontrunning and MEV while enabling compliance-aware execution for institutions.

This practical new confidentiality layer enables institutional players to manage cross-chain positions with control, allowing institutional capital to finally flow on-chain without sacrificing discretion. In addition, new Peer-to-Peer functionality allows users to negotiate and settle custom or large transactions directly with counterparties through smart contract enforcement, eliminating the need for intermediaries or escrow services.

Illia Polosukhin, co-founder of NEAR Protocol said,

“For the first time, you can transact confidentially with any asset, across all chains, with one wallet. near.com removes the complexity and fragmentation from on-chain finance by empowering users to focus on outcomes rather than infrastructure.”

Alex Shevchenko, general manager of NEAR Intents, added,

“The crypto economy today is scattered across dozens of different blockchains, and the user experience is incredibly fragmented and complex. The next phase of on-chain finance requires infrastructure that hides complexity without sacrificing performance, confidentiality, and control.

“With near.com, we are bringing that capability into a unified experience where users can define what they want to achieve while the infrastructure handles execution behind the scenes. This is not just a cross-chain swapping frontend but a super-app on crypto rails that will give users a wide world of features all in a single account.”

Bitcoin and XRP price moved higher after a turbulent weekend marked by U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran and rapid regional retaliation. Bitcoin price gained 3% as the market mood stabilized. The token was also indicating a rapid recovery after the sharp decline caused by the conflict.

XRP price also rose, gaining above $1.40 momentum in the last 24 hours. The wider crypto market also bounced back, and total value increased to $2.31 trillion. Ethereum was holding around the $2,000 mark. Solana, Dogecoin, and Cardano recorded small gains. The markets were still afraid during the entire session due to geopolitical uncertainty.

Joint U.S.–Israel Strike Reportedly Kills Iran’s Supreme Leader Iran’s political landscape shifted sharply on Saturday after reports claimed that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei died during coordinated strikes conducted by U.S. and Israeli forces.

The news was announced by U.S. President Donald Trump in his Truth Social account. He mentioned that Khamenei was a historic enemy and the strike was successful in its goal. His remarks came out soon after satellite pictures indicated visible destruction of a secured compound in the city of Tehran.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated that there were early signs that the Supreme Leader was not able to withstand the impact. Hours of uncertainty in Iran were later ended by Iranian state media confirming his death.

U.S. military authorities in Washington confirmed that three of its military personnel had been killed on the second day of the operation. It was the first U.S. casualty to be reported since the war had commenced.

The Iranian retaliation consisted of a wide-range missile strike that covered local waters and various other states where American bases are located. Initial reports talked about explosions in and around various strategic locations in the Middle East.

Bitcoin and XRP Price Surges as Inflows Grow Across Major ETFs Bitcoin and XRP price momentum strengthened as easing geopolitical tension lifted overall crypto sentiment. The BTC price increased 3.21% to $67,040, driven by a relief rally and sustained demand by U.S. spot ETFs.

The BTC held above the $66,000 support level, which kept buying interest steady. A sustained inflow trend could help the future Bitcoin outlook approach the $70,000 ceiling in the near term.

During the trading week of Feb. 23–27 (ET), spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $787 million, led by BlackRock’s IBIT with $503 million in net inflows. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw $80.46 million in net inflows, while spot SOL ETFs attracted $44.44 million and spot XRP ETFs… pic.twitter.com/l4ZJfsntvd

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) March 1, 2026

Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $787 million in the trading week of Feb. 23 through 27, and the largest gain was made by the BlackRock product.

There was also the XRP funds, which attracted attention and contributed to the addition of $9.55 million within the same period. XRP price gained 4.55% over 24 hours, trading at a range of $1.39 to $1.42.

A move above the $1.40 mark will clear the way to a push to $1.50. The inability to retain $1.30 can be an indicator of the retest of the recent lows.

Source: Tradingview To sum up,  Markets are very vulnerable to geopolitical shocks, and crypto volatility might swiftly resume in case tensions worsen. Despite the current inflows of ETFs and positive technical outcomes supporting the Bitcoin and XRP prices, the uncertainty remains.

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

In February, XRP failed to deliver in any format. Against the U.S. dollar, XRP simply lost more than 16% in price. Another benchmark, namely its ratio against the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, saw XRP finish the month below the middle Bollinger Band level on the monthly time frame, the one represented by the 20-month moving average, as per TradingView.

Bitcoin to take upper hand against XRP, as per Bollinger BandsThe principal importance of this level, as of any Bollinger Band average on any time frame, is that it effectively separates trends for the token. If an asset falls below the midline band, the prevailing trend can be considered bearish, and the lower Bollinger Band becomes the primary price benchmark.

For XRP against Bitcoin, that lower band stands at 0.00009775 BTC per XRP, which is currently 52.91% below the present valuation of the ratio between the two cryptocurrencies.

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XRP/USD Monthly Chart with Bollinger Bands, Source: TradingViewFor comparison, more than a year ago, in January 2025, the XRP against Bitcoin ratio, after a three-month 380% rally, reached and even exceeded the upper Bollinger Band on the monthly time frame, peaking at 0.00003419 BTC per XRP.

Since then, XRP has not only declined by 40% from that level against its flagship counterpart, but, as stated at the beginning, has also fallen into the lower corridor drawn by the Bollinger Bands.

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This hardly means that XRP will fall to the lower boundary in the near term, but until there is a confident close above the middle band, expectations of XRP outperforming Bitcoin, as it did over the previous two years, should remain limited.

In recent XRP news, Ripple has released another 1 billion XRP from its escrow system in three tranches. Whale Alert reported transactions of 200 million, 300 million, and 500 million XRP. The total value exceeded $1.37 billion at current market prices. The company carries out these releases each month as part of its long-running liquidity and supply plan.

Data from XRPL Services showed that Ripple now holds around 32.91 billion XRP. This amount equals about 32% of the total token supply and is valued above $45 billion at present market rates. These holdings remain one of the largest single positions in the ecosystem, and they continue to draw market attention during each scheduled unlock.

Although the release was large, XRP showed almost no price reaction. The token saw a slight move of 0.9% from the day’s opening, which kept it in a narrow range through the morning session. At press time, the XRP price was trading at $1.36, a 3.56% surge from the 24 hour. 

XRP Market Performance and ETF ActivityFebruary closed with a notable downward move for XRP. The token ended the month down 16.45%. During the deepest point of the decline, XRP had fallen about 33% from earlier levels. The month’s weakness placed the asset among the laggards in the larger market.

During the trading week of February 23–27, spot XRP ETFs recorded net inflows of $9.55 million. These flows were small compared with spot Bitcoin ETFs that reported $787 million in inflows and with Ethereum and Solana ETFs that drew $80.46 million and $44.44 million. However, the XRP figures still signaled steady interest.

Concurrent with XRP's increased attention, Ripple’s leadership also continued to address regulatory matters. As we reported, a call from the company’s chief executive, Brad Garlinghouse, urged that banks work in good faith to pass the CLARITY Act, which he says would play out well for XRP.

Analyst Maintains Long-Term View on XRPCrypto analyst Javon Marks shared a long-range forecast that remains positive despite the drop below $1.3. He wrote that the measured move target for XRP “remains intact” and pointed to a structure forming across several past cycles. His chart covered more than ten years of price movement and included past wedge patterns that ended with sharp rallies.

Marks argued that XRP has followed a repeated setup in past cycles. He pointed to formations in 2017 and in the period leading into 2021. In both cases, XRP dropped below a support area and later moved sharply upward. He called these events “false breakdowns” and said they often came before new all-time highs.

He compared the rise from about $0.55 to above $2.2 in late 2024 with the pattern seen in 2017. He said this move may act as an early stage for a larger advance. His projection showed a possible range between $15 and $18, based on long-term measurements of trend structures.

Source: X

Marks also shared a chart of XRP priced against Bitcoin. He wrote that the pair “looks to be setting up for an over 680% run” and said that such a move could lift XRP above $10 in the broader cycle.

Bitcoin broke below an adjusted realized price level tied to newer supply, signaling fresh stress across the current cycle’s holder base. Meanwhile, traders still point to 72,000 as the pivot that could flip the market from range trading into a renewed push higher.

Bitcoin Falls Below Adjusted Realized Price as Geopolitical Tensions EscalateBitcoin traded below its adjusted realized price for the first time in the current cycle, according to data shared by market commentator That Martini Guy on X. The metric, which excludes coins held for more than seven years, tracks the average acquisition cost of more recently active supply. Historically, when Bitcoin falls under this level, it signals that a large share of holders sit at an unrealized loss.

Data from CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin’s market price slipping under the adjusted realized price line near the $72,000 area. The chart indicates that throughout 2023, 2024, and most of 2025, Bitcoin remained above this cost basis. However, the latest decline pushed price beneath the orange realized price curve, marking a technical shift in market structure.

Bitcoin Adjusted Realized Price Falls Below Market Price. Source: CryptoQuant

The move comes as geopolitical tensions intensified between the United States, Israel, and Iran. In recent days, officials from Washington and Tehran exchanged warnings following Israeli military operations linked to Iranian-backed groups. The situation added pressure to global markets as investors reacted to the risk of broader regional escalation. Oil prices moved higher, while equities showed volatility, reflecting uncertainty around potential supply disruptions and military developments.

As tensions rose, risk assets faced renewed selling. Bitcoin, which often trades in line with broader macro sentiment during periods of stress, declined sharply from recent highs. The pullback coincided with increased demand for traditional safe-haven assets, including the U.S. dollar and government bonds. Market participants adjusted positions amid concerns about possible direct confrontation or expanded military engagement.

The adjusted realized price level now acts as a reference point for traders assessing whether the drop represents temporary stress or a deeper trend change. Previous cycles showed that extended trading below realized price can coincide with heightened volatility. At the same time, rebounds above the metric have historically signaled renewed upward momentum.

For now, Bitcoin remains under that threshold as geopolitical developments continue to unfold. Financial markets are tracking diplomatic statements, military movements, and energy market reactions, all of which could influence risk appetite in the days ahead.

Bitcoin Chart Flags 72,000 Resistance as Traders Watch for BreakoutMeanwhile , Bitcoin’s 4 hour chart on Binance shows price trading inside a wide consolidation zone after a steep selloff and a sharp rebound, according to an analysis shared by Captain Faibik on X. His chart marks a defined range with repeated reactions at both boundaries, suggesting the market has shifted from trend movement into a back and forth structure.

BitcoinUSDT 4 Hour Range Setup. Source: Captain Faibik on X

Faibik said a “big move” could follow and framed the near term risk as a potential bear trap, where price dips below support to trigger exits before reversing higher. On the chart, the lower edge of the range aligns with recent wicks and fast rebounds, which often reflect aggressive buying interest after breakdown attempts.

He also highlighted 72,000 as the key resistance level to reclaim. The chart places that ceiling near the upper part of the marked range, where previous rallies stalled. A clean push above that level would signal that buyers absorbed supply at the top of the structure.

If bulls reclaim 72,000, Faibik said Bitcoin could rally toward the 82,000 to 83,000 zone in March. His projection follows a common sequence in range markets, where a confirmed break above resistance can trigger follow through as traders reposition from defensive setups into momentum trades.

Ethereum's co-founder outlines EIP-7864 and a phased EVM replacement plan targeting proving efficiency and protocol simplicity.

Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) (NASDAQ: MARA), a key player in the digital asset and infrastructure space, recently unveiled its financial performance for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2025, alongside two significant partnerships aimed at diversifying its operations beyond traditional Bitcoin mining. These developments come amid a volatile market for crypto-related firms, where energy costs and asset valuations have pressured profitability.

The company’s moves signal a pivot toward high-growth areas like AI and hyperscale computing, drawing mixed responses from analysts and investors.

In its Q4 and FY 2025 earnings, MARA reported a substantial net loss of approximately $1.7 billion, or -$4.52 per diluted share, a stark contrast to the prior year’s profit of $528.3 million, or $1.24 per share.

This shortfall stemmed largely from a $1.5 billion markdown on Bitcoin holdings, reflecting cryptocurrency price fluctuations.

Quarterly revenue dipped 6% year-over-year to $202.3 million, falling short of expectations around $250-253 million.

For the full year, however, revenue climbed 38% to $907.1 million, highlighting some resilience in core operations.

Bitcoin production metrics showed strain, with mining costs exceeding $48,000 per coin, squeezing margins amid rising energy demands.

Management attributed the results to market cycles but emphasized operational efficiencies, including expanded hash rates and site optimizations.

Analysts reacted with caution to the earnings miss, noting the wide gap between actual EPS and forecasts (which ranged from -$0.23 to -$0.45).

Initial stock price movements reflected disappointment, with shares dropping about 2.1% in after-hours trading to around $8.39, extending a year-to-date decline of roughly 5.9% and a six-month slide of 46.7%.

The stock’s high beta of 5.53 underscores its sensitivity to broader crypto trends, leading some to label it as overvalued per fair value assessments.

However, sentiment shifted positively post-announcement, with shares rallying up to 14-15% in extended trading, fueled by excitement over the strategic updates.

This rebound suggests investors are prioritizing long-term potential over immediate shortfalls.

Perhaps as expected at this point, industry professionals express guarded optimism.

Wall Street maintains a “Buy” consensus, with price targets spanning $8 to $30 and an average around $19-20, implying potential upside of over 100% from current levels.

Forecasts anticipate EPS improvement from -$1.04 in 2025 to -$0.56 in 2026, driven by cost controls and diversification.

Experts like those at BTIG and Piper Sandler reiterate “Buy” or “Overweight” ratings, citing MARA’s energy assets as key to navigating cycles.

Complementing the earnings, MARA announced a strategic alliance with Starwood Capital Group’s Digital Ventures to repurpose power-rich sites into advanced data centers for enterprise, hyperscale, and AI applications.

MARA provides sites with low-cost energy and scalability, while Starwood handles design, construction, tenant acquisition, and operations.

The initiative targets 1 GW of near-term capacity, expandable to 2.5 GW, enabling flexible workloads between Bitcoin mining and AI computing based on demand.

This capital-efficient approach is seen as a hedge against crypto volatility, positioning MARA at the energy-compute nexus.

Additionally, MARA deepened its European footprint through a collaboration with EDF Pulse Ventures and NJJ Holding to bolster Exaion, a high-performance computing and AI infrastructure provider.

MARA secured a 64% stake in Exaion, with NJJ taking a 10% minority interest in MARA’s French arm.

The partnership, now finalized after regulatory approvals, aims to scale Exaion’s secure cloud and HPC offerings, establishing it as a key European player.

Governance includes board representation from all parties, fostering industrial momentum.Industry observers view these partnerships as timely pivots, though challenges remain.

Retrofitting mining sites for AI demands significant expertise, and MARA trails peers like CleanSpark or Iris Energy in execution.

Still, Starwood’s $125 billion in assets and track record could derisk the transition, potentially unlocking new revenue streams.

Analysts project these moves could stabilize earnings and boost valuations if tenant leases materialize swiftly. Overall, while 2025’s results underscore mining’s risks, MARA’s forward strategy has seemingly rekindled investor interest, with expectations for a rebound tied to AI adoption and Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Journalist

Posted: March 1, 2026

Ethereum’s [ETH] derivatives market has entered a clear contraction phase as macroeconomic pressures weigh on risk appetite.

Persistent inflation signals, highlighted by a Core PPI MoM reading of +0.8%, suggest monetary policy may remain restrictive.

At the same time, rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran have further reduced market visibility.

Source: Darkfost/X

Within this environment, leverage across Ethereum derivatives began declining steadily.

Open Interest across exchanges fell from roughly 7.79 million ETH to roughly 5.8 million ETH, signaling broad exposure reduction among traders.

Even so, Binance continues to dominate the market with about 34.9% of total Open Interest, while Gate.io holds 23.26% and Bybit roughly 15.24%, indicating liquidity remains concentrated on major venues.

Source: Darkfost/X

Meanwhile, notional exposure dropped sharply. Binance’s Open Interest declined from $12.6 billion to $4.1 billion, while Bybit fell to around $1.9 billion.

As positions closed, liquidation clusters concentrated near $2,100 and $2,700, reflecting defensive positioning as traders reduced leverage and reassessed market direction.

Whales step in as Ethereum derivatives activity stabilizes Following the sharp contraction in Ethereum’s derivatives exposure, attention now shifts toward underlying accumulation dynamics.

As leverage declined across exchanges, order-flow activity also stabilized. The Taker/Buy Ratio hovered close to 0.49–0.51, signaling a more balanced market after earlier aggressive positioning.

Source: CryptoQuant

Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price continued trending lower, falling from roughly $2,500 toward $1,965 during the broader market retracement.

Despite this decline, on-chain flows reveal a contrasting development. Inflows into Accumulation Addresses increased steadily after May 2025, with noticeable spikes during periods of price weakness.

Source: X

This behavior suggests that large holders are gradually absorbing supply released during the downturn. Similar inflow patterns appeared during previous correction phases.

For example, accumulation intensified before the 2021 rally from around $1,000 to nearly $4,800.

Within the current environment, derivative leverage appears to be cooling while strategic accumulation expands.

This evolving balance indicates that long-term participants may be positioning quietly while speculative exposure continues to normalize.

Spot market demand grows While Ethereum’s derivatives market continues to deleverage, Spot demand is showing early signs of recovery through renewed institutional ETF inflows.

Institutional demand for Ethereum strengthened during the week ending on the 1st of March, as U.S. Spot ETFs recorded $80.5 million in net inflows.

Initially, flows fluctuated across issuers, reflecting active portfolio adjustments rather than broad sentiment shifts.

For instance, BlackRock recorded a $43 million outflow on the 27th of February, which appeared linked to short-term rebalancing activity.

Source: X

Meanwhile, other providers absorbed fresh demand. Fidelity and Grayscale posted notable inflows, helping offset earlier withdrawals across several funds.

Earlier in the week, multiple sessions showed redemptions exceeding $100 million, highlighting ongoing volatility in allocation decisions.

Despite these fluctuations, Ethereum’s price recovered toward $2,003, gaining roughly 8% during the period.

This divergence between derivatives cooling and renewed ETF inflows suggests institutional participants are gradually increasing Spot exposure while leverage-driven positioning continues to normalize.

Final Summary Ethereum [ETH] derivatives deleveraging reflects declining speculative exposure, while Open Interest contraction signals a broad reduction in leveraged positioning. Ethereum Spot demand is gradually strengthening as $80.5 million in ETF inflows indicate institutional capital absorbing supply during the market reset.

Bitcoin difficulty just reset about 15% higher to roughly 144.40T. While this is neither the first nor the last, it is the largest since around 2021.

Bitcoin Bear Market Could Get Worse Despite the Latest Relief Rally Prefer us on Google

Bitcoin remains capped below $70,000 amid persistent downtrend pressure.Pi Cycle indicator signals mid-cycle bearish consolidation phase.Bitcoin's SOPR below 1 shows investors selling at losses.Bitcoin price continues to trade under sustained pressure, struggling to reclaim the $70,000 level. BTC remains capped by a persistent downtrend that has limited upside attempts for weeks.

Historical cycle data and current on-chain signals suggest that bearish conditions may not be over. While short-term rallies occur, structural indicators imply that Bitcoin could remain constrained below $70,000.

Bitcoin’s Past Says Pressure PersistsThe Pi Cycle Top Indicator provides important context for Bitcoin’s current phase. This metric uses the 111-day moving average and a two-times multiple of the 350-day moving average. When these averages converge, the market is considered overheated.

Conversely, when the moving averages diverge widely, the asset is often viewed as undervalued. In the present cycle, Bitcoin does not exhibit either extreme. Instead, it appears positioned at the midpoint of a broader bearish phase.

Historically, mid-cycle bearish periods within Bitcoin’s four-year cycle have lasted a year or longer. Similar structures in past cycles kept BTC suppressed before the eventual recovery.

Current divergence between the 111 SMA and the 350 SMA x2 suggests continued bearishness rather than recovery.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Indicator. Source: GlassnodeThe Spent Output Profit Ratio further reinforces the cautious outlook. SOPR remains below the critical 1 level, signaling that many investors are selling at a loss. Persistent readings under 1 indicate limited profitability across market participants.

This dynamic suppresses recovery attempts. Bitcoin investors selling at a loss often reflect fear-driven behavior. Until SOPR consistently moves above 1, the Bitcoin price may struggle to build sustainable upside momentum.

Bitcoin SOPR. Source: GlassnodeBTC Price Downtrend ContinuesBitcoin is trading at $66,443 at the time of writing, still confined under a descending resistance line active for nearly a month. Repeated failures to break above this barrier highlight ongoing weakness. Without stronger buying pressure, BTC may remain trapped beneath this trendline.

The Money Flow Index shows active selling pressure. MFI readings indicate capital outflows continue to dominate inflows. Global macro uncertainty and geopolitical tensions are amplifying risk aversion. This environment encourages cautious positioning and limits aggressive accumulation.

Bitcoin MFI. Source: TradingViewGiven these conditions, the Bitcoin price could continue oscillating within a constrained range. A break below $65,000 would likely expose the $62,893 support. That level has already been tested twice this week, increasing vulnerability if selling intensifies.

Bitcoin Price Analysis. Source: TradingViewHowever, a shift in macro sentiment could alter the trajectory. If Bitcoin holds the $66,224 support and attracts fresh inflows, it may challenge $68,830 resistance.

A decisive move above $70,000 would invalidate the current bearish thesis and signal renewed structural strength.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.

A Bitcoin developer embedded a 66-kilobyte image inside a single transaction without using OP_RETURN or Taproot.

The transaction followed consensus rules. Anyone can verify the bytes using standard node software. Martin Habovštiak didn't do this to make art, but to prove that closing one data doorway doesn't remove the capability, it just changes where bytes hide.

The demonstration lands amid Bitcoin's most contentious governance fight in years. One faction wants stricter filters to keep “spam” off the blockchain.

Another argues that harsh restrictions push people into worse behaviors and advantage large miners. Habovštiak's experiment provides evidence for the second position: filtering redirects rather than preventing them.

What actually happenedHabovštiak's write-up includes a transaction ID and verification method.

Users can run bitcoin-cli getrawtransaction, then xxd -r -p to reconstruct the file. The construction avoids the two pathways most cited in data storage debates: the OP_RETURN field that Bitcoin Core recently relaxed, and Taproot's witness structure that enabled many inscriptions.

Bitcoin transactions are bytes. Nodes enforce that bytes follow structural rules, such as valid signatures, proper formatting, and legitimate spending conditions.

They don't enforce that bytes “mean money only.” If someone constructs valid transaction bytes that also form a valid image file, the network stores and relays them.

Bitcoin can discourage certain data patterns through software defaults. It cannot prevent them without directly confronting miners' economic incentives.

The distinction nobody explainsBitcoin operates with two layers of rules. Consensus rules determine what blocks are valid. Policy rules determine what transactions individual nodes relay and what miners typically accept into mempools by default.

Rule layerWhat it controls (plain English)What it can’t guaranteeWhy it matters hereConsensus rulesWhat makes blocks/tx validCan’t enforce “money-only meaning”If it’s valid, it can be minedPolicy / standardnessWhat nodes relay / mempools accept by defaultCan be bypassedFilters add friction, not certaintyMiners’ inclusionWhat gets into blocksIncentives override preferencesFees can “buy” inclusionDirect submission pipelinesBypasses relay networkConcentrates access“Pay-to-play” risk (Slipstream-type routes)Policy can slow behavior, raise friction, and impose costs. It cannot guarantee prevention if a transaction remains consensus-valid and pays sufficient fees.

Miners can include any consensus-valid transaction, especially when it reaches them through paths that bypass regular node relay.

OP_RETURN size limits have always been policy choices, not consensus walls. Bitcoin Core has historically treated these as standardness nudges, with developers arguing that harsh limits push people into worse encodings, such as stuffing data into outputs that appear spendable, bloating the UTXO set that every node must maintain.

Habovštiak's demonstration makes this abstract argument concrete. Cap one method, and engineering effort flows toward another.

The pay-to-play problemEven when many nodes refuse to relay “non-standard” transactions, economic incentives create workarounds. Mining pools accept transactions directly, bypassing the relay network. Services explicitly launched for this already exist.

MARA's Slipstream operates as a direct submission pipeline for “large or non-standard” transactions that nodes often exclude from mempools even when they follow consensus rules. The service routes around defaults rather than breaking rules.

This creates a centralization vector that stricter filters may amplify. When regular nodes won't relay certain transaction types, only miners and specialized services can reliably land them in blocks.

At 10 satoshis per virtual byte, one megabyte of blockspace costs approximately 0.1 BTC. At 50 satoshis per byte, roughly 0.5 BTC. The “ban” question becomes “what will people pay?”

Chart shows the cost to occupy one megabyte of Bitcoin blockspace ranges from 0.10 BTC at 10 sat/vB to 1.00 BTC at 100 sat/vB.BIP-110 and the governance battlefieldThe demonstration arrives as Bitcoin debates BIP-110, a proposal to temporarily restrict data-carrying transaction fields at the consensus level for approximately one year.

Field / areaWhat BIP-110 proposes (plain English)What it’s trying to preventMain tradeoff / riskNew output scriptsNew scriptPubKeys > 34 bytes invalid (except OP_RETURN allowance)Data stuffed into outputsRisk of pushing data elsewhereOP_RETURN exceptionOP_RETURN allowed up to 83 bytesSmall provable notesCritics: still doesn’t “ban data”Payload limitsCaps certain pushed data elements (general 256-byte ceiling with exceptions)Large embedded blobsWorkarounds may emergeWitness stack elementsLimits witness element sizes (general 256 bytes)Inscription-style payloadsMight redirect to worse encodingsDuration framingTemporary (~1 year)Tactical slowdownImplies “no clean permanent fix”Second-order effectIf data shifts into UTXO-like outputsAvoid long-term node burdenBackfire risk: UTXO bloat increasesThe draft would make new output scripts exceeding 34 bytes invalid, except for OP_RETURN outputs, which can be up to 83 bytes. It also proposes limits on payload sizes and witness stack elements, generally capping them at 256 bytes with narrow exceptions.

Supporters frame BIP-110 as a measure that protects node operators from runaway storage costs.

Critics warn about side effects and implementation risks. The proposal represents an escalation from policy-level filtering to consensus-level restriction, a shift carrying governance implications beyond the immediate technical question.

Habovštiak's experiment feeds directly into this debate. It demonstrates that even consensus restrictions face pressure to adapt. He notes BIP-110 could invalidate his specific construction, but also that he could produce alternatives using different encodings.

The underlying dynamic persists: squeeze one pattern, and incentives plus ingenuity push data elsewhere.

The temporary framing, one year rather than permanent, acknowledges this reality implicitly. A permanent change would require confronting harder questions about the sustainability of enforcement.

A temporary measure admits the problem may lack a clean technical solution, only tactical management with a limited shelf life.

The worst-behavior problemRestricting popular data pathways can backfire by pushing usage toward encodings that impose higher network costs.

When developers create outputs that look spendable to carry arbitrary data, they increase the UTXO set, which is the database of unspent outputs every full node must maintain in accessible storage.

UTXO growth represents a more persistent burden than witness data or OP_RETURN payloads, which can be pruned. An output that encodes an image file remains in the UTXO set until someone spends it, potentially indefinitely.

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The node cost accumulates rather than aging away.

This explains Bitcoin Core's historical reluctance to impose harsh limits on OP_RETURN. The alternative isn't necessarily better. Filters that seem protective can increase long-term operating costs for nodes, undermining the decentralization goal they aim to preserve.

Three paths forwardThe enforcement economics suggest three scenarios.

The first path maintains the status quo: price it, don't ban it. Arbitrary data persists, governed primarily by fee markets. When blockspace becomes scarce, data-heavy transactions are naturally priced out. The lever becomes economic rather than technical.

The second path tightens policy filters while leaving consensus unchanged. Data shifts toward harder-to-filter encodings and direct-to-miner submission. Centralization risk rises because only miners and specialized pipelines can reliably confirm these transactions.

The third path implements consensus restrictions, such as those outlined in BIP-110. Popular patterns may temporarily decline, but adaptation continues as new encodings emerge. Collateral damage increases if limits push data into outputs that bloat the UTXO set.

Governance risk escalates as contentious consensus changes raise coordination challenges and the potential for network splits.

What decides the outcomeThree indicators signal which scenario materializes.

First, miner behavior. Do mining pools continue accepting non-standard transactions through direct channels? Services like Slipstream exist specifically for this, as their sustained operation reveals miner priorities.

Second, governance trajectory. Does BIP-110 gather meaningful adoption beyond debate? The proposal requires coordinated activation across a decentralized network, making political viability as important as technical merit.

Third, second-order effects. Do restrictions push more data into encodings that increase node burden? UTXO growth rates during policy tightening periods would provide empirical evidence.

The uncomfortable realityIf you oppose on-chain data storage beyond financial transactions, Habovštiak's demonstration delivers an uncomfortable message: you probably can't ban it.

You can price it through fee markets. You can discourage it through policy defaults. You can raise friction through implementation complexity.

But full prevention requires either accepting economic constraints you cannot control or implementing consensus restrictions that carry their own risks.

Bitcoin validates transaction structure, not meaning. The protocol doesn't distinguish between “money transactions” and “data transactions” because that distinction requires interpretation that the network cannot perform.

The real debate isn't whether Bitcoin can technically prevent arbitrary data, as the demonstrated answer is “not easily, and perhaps not at all.”

The debate is which tradeoffs the network accepts: centralization toward miners who bypass filters, governance risk from contentious consensus changes, or higher long-term costs from worse encoding choices.

Habovštiak's image proves the filters don't work as advertised. What comes next depends on whether Bitcoin's users and developers accept that reality or continue pursuing technical solutions to what increasingly appears to be an economic and governance problem.

Posted in

WIF's price action is testing a key level at $0.20 as liquidity builds on both sides.

17h05 ▪ 4 min read ▪ by Ifeoluwa O.

Summarize this article with:

It has been 15 years since Mt. Gox suffered a major security breach that resulted in nearly 80,000 Bitcoins being moved, an event that became central to the collapse of the exchange. Now, Mark Karpelès, the company’s former CEO, has urged the Bitcoin community to consider an unusual idea: modifying the network’s rules to potentially recover the lost coins.

In Brief Mark Karpelès has proposed modifying Bitcoin’s network rules to potentially recover the 79,956 BTC linked to the Mt. Gox collapse. The plan would allow the dormant coins to be moved using a recovery address without accessing the original private key. Reclaimed Bitcoin would be overseen by trustee Nobuaki Kobayashi and distributed to verified creditors through the court process. A Targeted Approach to Reclaim Lost Mt. Gox Bitcoin Karpelès has suggested a way to move the unspent Bitcoin linked to Mt. Gox using the recovery address, without accessing the private key that initially controlled them. Through this method, the 79,956 BTC lost in the exchange’s collapse could be returned to creditors under the supervision of the ongoing court-managed rehabilitation process. He pointed out that these coins are among the most closely tracked in Bitcoin’s history, lying dormant for more than 15 years.

The former CEO stressed that the proposal is not intended to circumvent Bitcoin’s normal upgrade process. Instead, it aims to explore whether the Mt. Gox case warrants a rare, one-time intervention. Carrying out the change would require a hard fork, which must be adopted across the network before a specified activation block. Karpelès pointed out that the adjustment is highly focused, applying to just one address, consisting of fewer than 50 lines of code, and leaving general consensus rules and script functionality untouched. He framed the measure as a way to provide fair restitution to creditors.

Should the plan move forward, it would mean the following outcomes:

The recovered Bitcoin would be managed under the supervision of Nobuaki Kobayashi, Mt. Gox’s court-appointed trustee, ensuring that oversight remains in trusted hands. If the coins can be technically recovered, the existing legal framework would allow them to be safely distributed to verified claimants, providing a structured path for restitution. Community Reactions and Controversy The suggestion has sparked mixed reactions. Some critics warned that rewriting the ledger could harm Bitcoin’s reputation and prompt other victims of hacks to pursue comparable interventions. Others expressed concern that linking network rules to court decisions could undermine Bitcoin’s independence from government authorities.

Karpelès accepted these concerns but emphasized that the Mt. Gox case is exceptional. The situation is well-recorded and widely recognized as involving lost coins, unlike cases where ownership is unclear. Meanwhile, a number of individuals claiming to be Mt. Gox creditors expressed support for exploring ways to recover the funds, noting that they have only received limited compensation through the ongoing bankruptcy process. 

Mt. Gox: From Market Leader to Bankruptcy In its early years, Mt. Gox handled most of the world’s Bitcoin trading, establishing itself as the leading exchange in the market. In June 2011, a security breach moved nearly 79,956 BTC to unknown addresses. Over the next few years, internal problems and unnoticed losses continued to accumulate, reaching a breaking point by early 2014. On February 28, 2014, the exchange declared bankruptcy. Since then, legal proceedings have continued, with the trustee gradually returning portions of recovered funds to creditors.

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Ifeoluwa O.

Ifeoluwa specializes in Web3 writing and marketing, with over 5 years of experience creating insightful and strategic content. Beyond this, he trades crypto and is skilled at conducting technical, fundamental, and on-chain analyses.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.

Ripple’s latest funding push for the XRP Ledger is drawing renewed attention to XRP, with traders closely watching whether the ecosystem expansion can translate into sustained price momentum.

Summary

Ripple boosts XRPL funding: New grants and investments aim to accelerate DeFi, tokenization, and enterprise adoption. XRP consolidating near $1.40: Price remains range-bound between $1.35 and $1.50 after February volatility. Breakout level to watch: A move above $1.50–$1.60 could signal bullish continuation, while $1.35 remains key support. While the Ripple token (XRP) remains range-bound near $1.40, the announcement might reinforce bullish long-term sentiment around the network’s growth prospects.

In a recent blog post, Ripple detailed expanded financial backing for developers building on the XRP Ledger (XRPL), including grants and strategic investments targeting compliance-first DeFi, real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, and enterprise-grade blockchain solutions.

The initiative is designed to deepen liquidity, expand institutional participation, and strengthen core infrastructure.

By prioritizing regulated DeFi applications and tokenization frameworks, Ripple is positioning XRPL as a scalable, enterprise-ready network aligned with global financial standards. The move shows Ripple’s strategy of pairing institutional partnerships with grassroots developer growth, a combination that could enhance long-term demand for XRP as a utility asset within the ecosystem.

XRP price analysis XRP is currently trading around $1.40, up modestly on the day, as price action consolidates following a sharp early-February decline that briefly drove the token toward $1.20 before a rebound.

XRP price analysis | Source: Crypto.News Since that capitulation move, XRP has traded within a tight $1.35–$1.50 range, signaling potential accumulation. Immediate resistance stands near $1.50, with a stronger ceiling around $1.60, where prior rejection occurred.

A confirmed breakout above $1.60 could open the door toward $1.80. On the downside, key support remains at $1.35, followed by the psychological $1.20 level.

Meanwhile, the RSI (14) sits near 42, below the neutral 50 mark, indicating subdued bullish momentum but no longer oversold conditions. Meanwhile, the DMI shows the negative trend line still leading, though the gap is narrowing, suggesting bearish pressure may be weakening.

A decisive move above $1.50, particularly on rising volume, would be needed to confirm a bullish shift.

Bitcoin bulls managed to defend the $66K support level as the leading crypto asset reversed part of its strong gains yesterday that was partly fueled by a strong uptick in ETF inflows.

Summary

Bitcoin price rebounded from above $66,000 support as its ETFs resumed an inflow trend. A bearish flag pattern has formed on the daily chart. According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (BTC) price surged nearly 7% to roughly $70,000 on Thursday as investor sentiment for risk assets was boosted following the release of a bullish Nvidia earnings report that triggered a surge in tech stocks.

Rising equity prices often act as a catalyst for a risk-on rotation. As market confidence strengthens, capital flows out of defensive positions and into high-beta sectors like cryptocurrency.

The bellwether’s rally was also supported by a strong demand seen from institutional investors for spot Bitcoin ETFs. Data from SoSoValue shows that the 12 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew in $506 million in net inflows on Feb. 25, nearly double the figure recorded the prior day.

Shortly after its $70K rally, Bitcoin price had retraced nearly 4% to $66,641. This selloff was accompanied by a 2% drop in Nasdaq as investors booked profits after the stock’s notable run higher into the earnings event. The drawdown created a cooling effect across the broader financial landscape.

Bitcoin has since bounced back above $67,500 after bulls lodged another attempt to reclaim the $70K threshold. The momentum was supported by the $254 million inflows recorded by spot BTC ETFs on Thursday.

Despite today’s bounce, some analysts believe Bitcoin could continue its larger downtrend that began in early January before any meaningful trend reversal takes shape.

According to analyst Ted Pillows, Bitcoin price appears to be forming a recurring fractal pattern that has historically preceded downturns.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart | Source: X/TedPillows “Once more people are convinced $60,000 was the bottom, the next dump to a new low will start,” said Pillows in a Feb. 26 X post.

Bitcoin price analysis Bitcoin has formed a bearish flag pattern on the daily chart. This pattern consists of a sharp price decline followed by a period of steady, upward consolidation within two parallel lines.

Bitcoin price has formed a bearish flag pattern on the daily chart — Feb. 27 | Source: crypto.news Historically, Bearish flags have confirmed the continuation of an ongoing downtrend after short periods of consolidation.

At press time, other technical indicators also seem to show bears are currently at an advantage. Notably, the Aroon Down was at 78.55, which is significantly higher than the Aroon Up, suggesting bears were still dominating the market trend.

The Relative Strength Index, which has moved closer toward the neutral thresholds, also indicates that there is potential room for more downside pressure before the asset hits oversold levels.

For now, $65,000 remains the key support level to watch. The level has acted as a psychological defensive line for nearly three weeks and seems to be holding strong for now, as a large cluster of buy orders and long positions was seen accumulating in this range.

A sharp drop under the $65K mark could lead bears to target $60K, a psychological level bears tried to penetrate during the Feb. 6 crash.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

Sonic price remains under heavy selling pressure as an aggressive downtrend continues to dominate market structure. Consecutive lower highs and lower lows now place yearly support at risk of breaking.

Summary

Aggressive downtrend confirmed by lower highs and lower lows Price trades near yearly low below 0.618 Fibonacci extension Lack of bullish volume signals continued downside risk The Sonic (S) token continues to trade within a firmly established bearish trend, with price action showing little evidence of stabilization. Recent market behavior reflects persistent seller control, as rallies into resistance repeatedly fail and lead to further downside continuation.

With momentum weakening and bullish participation absent, the market now approaches a critical inflection point where a new yearly low may soon be confirmed.

Sonic price key technical points: Trend Structure: Clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows confirms strong downtrend. Key Level: Price trading near yearly low below the 0.618 Fibonacci extension. Market Bias: Lack of bullish volume suggests continuation of bearish momentum. SUSDT (4H) Chart, Source: TradingView Sonic’s corrective phase has evolved into a sustained and aggressive downtrend characterized by repeated bearish retests and continuation moves lower. Each attempt at recovery has been met with selling pressure, reinforcing resistance zones and preventing any meaningful trend reversal. This pattern of failing rallies highlights the dominance of sellers and reflects a market environment where confidence remains weak.

From a technical perspective, the sequence of lower highs and lower lows is one of the clearest signals of bearish market structure. Instead of forming consolidation or accumulation patterns, Sonic has continued to trend downward with consistent momentum. Resistance levels that previously acted as support have flipped decisively into supply zones, creating a cascading effect where price struggles to regain higher ground.

Currently, Sonic trades near the absolute yearly low region while remaining positioned below the 0.618 Fibonacci extension, a level often associated with trend continuation during strong directional markets. A confirmed breakdown below this region would establish a new yearly low and validate the ongoing bearish projection.

Such price behavior typically signals continuation rather than exhaustion, particularly when volume does not show signs of aggressive buying interest.

Volume analysis further strengthens the bearish outlook. Throughout the decline, bullish volume has remained muted, suggesting limited demand at current prices. Reversal scenarios generally require expanding buy-side participation and structural reclaim of key resistance levels. At present, neither condition is visible, indicating that the market has yet to enter a recovery phase.

Market participants should also consider the psychological impact of prolonged downtrends. Extended periods of selling often reduce trader confidence, encouraging defensive positioning and short-term selling on rallies. Until Sonic can reclaim a meaningful high timeframe resistance level, upside attempts are likely to remain corrective rather than impulsive.

This comes as Sonic Labs CEO Mitchell Demeter outlines the key steps layer-1 blockchains must take to remain competitive, underscoring the broader strategic challenges facing the sector amid persistent market weakness.

Despite the weakness, markets rarely move in straight lines indefinitely. Short-term relief bounces may occur as oversold conditions develop; however, such moves would likely function as temporary pauses within the broader bearish structure unless accompanied by strong volume expansion and structural shifts.

From a broader market structure standpoint, Sonic remains trapped in a persistent downtrend where liquidity continues to build below price. As long as resistance levels remain intact, the path of least resistance favors further downside exploration.

What to expect in the coming price action Unless Sonic reclaims high timeframe resistance and attracts meaningful bullish volume, the probability favors continuation toward new yearly lows. The prevailing bearish structure suggests downside pressure will persist, with any rallies likely serving as corrective retests rather than a confirmed trend reversal.