Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) heads into its Q2 2026 earnings report tomorrow as the undisputed laggard of the Magnificent 7. Shares are down 17.82% year to date, badly trailing every other name in the cohort. Our proprietary model says the setup is more constructive than the tape suggests.

Our 24/7 Wall St. Price Target for Tesla The 24/7 Wall St. price target for Tesla is $428.08, implying 15.83% upside from the current $369.57 quote. Our recommendation is buy.

The rating reflects a re-rating pathway from expanding automotive margins, an accelerating Services and Other line, and imminent product catalysts in Cybercab, Semi, and Optimus. Q2 is the near-term trigger; the multi-year AI thesis is the structural driver.

Metric Value Current Price $369.57 24/7 Wall St. Price Target $428.08 Upside 15.83% Recommendation BUY Confidence Level 90% Why Tesla Has Been the Mag 7 Anchor in 2026 Tesla has slid 6.38% in the past week and 7.72% in the past month, sitting well below the 52-week high of $498.83 hit late last year.

In Q1 2026, Tesla reported revenue of $22.387 billion, up 15.78% YoY, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.41 versus a $0.3481 estimate, a 17.78% beat. Automotive gross margin snapped back to 21.1% from 16.2% from a year earlier, and Services and Other revenue jumped 42% to $3.745 billion on 1.28 million FSD subscriptions. Q2 reports July 22 after the close.

The Case for the Bull Scenario Our bull scenario gets Tesla to $487.11 within twelve months, a 31.81% total return. Cybercab volume production at Giga Texas, Tesla Semi volume production, Megapack 3, and the Optimus Fremont line all hit in 2026. FSD subscriptions rose 51% YoY, and Netherlands approval opens the EU.

Prediction markets on Polymarket price a 77.5% probability of a Q2 EPS beat. On 7investing’s AI Investor Podcast, Simon Erickson framed a robotaxi-success DCF at $700 per share, arguing Tesla “can probably double again” if regulators cooperate.

What Could Go Wrong The bear scenario lands at $375.64, barely above today’s price. TSLA trades at 346 trailing earnings and 167 forward. Q1 flagged real headwinds: energy revenue fell 12% YoY, inventory rose to 27 days of supply from 22, regulatory credits are declining, and digital asset losses hit $222 million. Opex is up 37% YoY.

Bulls counter that opex growth reflects deliberate AI R&D and the CEO award SBC, and that $1.95 billion in quarterly R&D is the price of buying Optimus and Robotaxi optionality. Polymarket assigns just a 16% chance of an Optimus release by year-end, so expectations there are already reset lower.

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How Tesla Stacks Up Against GM and Rivian General Motors (NYSE:GM) is the traditional-auto counterpoint. GM trades at a P/E near 25 on $185 billion in 2025 revenue, with Q1 2026 EPS of $3.70 beating the $2.62 consensus. GM prints real cash today; Tesla is priced on cash it will earn a decade out. That contrast is why our 24/7 Wall St. price target applies a mega-cap dampener rather than pure growth multiples.

Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) is the pure-play EV comp on the other extreme. Rivian’s Q1 2026 revenue was $1.381 billion on 10,365 deliveries, with negative adjusted EBITDA of -$472 million. Rivian has no P/E because it lacks earnings.

Between GM’s 25 P/E and Rivian’s negative one, Tesla’s 167 forward P/E reflects the market pricing a hybrid auto-plus-AI outcome. That framing makes our 24/7 Wall St. price target of $428.08 look reasonable.

The Setup Ahead of Q2 Earnings The 24/7 Wall St. price target is $428.08, the call is buy, and our confidence is 90%. The tipping factor is margin recovery: automotive gross margin snapping back to 21.1% resets the earnings math.

The bullish case strengthens if Q2 confirms the margin trajectory and FSD subscription growth holds above 40% YoY. The bearish case gains ground if energy revenue slips again and inventory days climb further.

Tesla Price Projection 2026 to 2030 Our base case implies a 9.94% annualized return to $593.66 by 2031.

Year 24/7 Wall St. Price Target 2026 $428 2027 $470 2028 $515 2029 $555 2030 $590 These projections assume Tesla executes on Cybercab, Semi, and Optimus ramps while sustaining FSD adoption. Meaningful upside or downside could emerge from Robotaxi geographic expansion or delayed Optimus commercialization.

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A Tesla robotaxi drives on the street along South Congress Avenue in Austin, Texas, U.S., June 22, 2025. REUTERS/Joel Angel Juarez/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

CompaniesJuly 21 (Reuters) - Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab on Tuesday expanded its robotaxi service to Orlando and Tampa, as the electric-vehicle ​maker races to prove that it can ‌scale its autonomous ride-hailing business beyond its initial launch markets.

The move comes a day before Tesla reports second-quarter ​earnings, with Wall Street closely watching the ​progress on robotaxis, which underpin much of ⁠the company's valuation as CEO Elon Musk shifts ​focus toward artificial intelligence, autonomous driving and humanoid ​robots.

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Tesla launched its robotaxi service in Austin in June last year and expanded to Dallas and Houston earlier this ​year and Miami this month. The company ​has also been conducting supervised testing in California's San Francisco ‌Bay ⁠Area.

Investors have questioned the pace of the rollout after Tesla missed several expansion targets. In response, Musk has said the company was deliberately taking ​a cautious ​approach, and ⁠that rigorous safety testing was the main constraint to faster deployment of ​the service.

Unlike rivals such as Alphabet-owned (GOOGL.O), opens new tab Waymo, ​which ⁠relies on lidar sensors, Tesla's robotaxi system uses cameras and AI-based software to navigate. Tesla plans ⁠to ​eventually deploy its purpose-built Cybercab ​vehicle, which does not have pedals or a steering wheel.

Reporting by ​Akash Sriram in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

Item 1 of 2 A Tesla Cybercab is displayed at the Los Angeles Auto Show, in Los Angeles, California, U.S., November 21, 2024. REUTERS/Daniel Cole

[1/2]A Tesla Cybercab is displayed at the Los Angeles Auto Show, in Los Angeles, California, U.S., November 21, 2024. REUTERS/Daniel Cole Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

SummaryCompaniesHeavy outlays target AI infrastructure, robotaxis and OptimusBarclays says stronger vehicle operations can help finance AI-related expendituresQuarterly update may show first cash burn in over two yearsJuly 21 (Reuters) - Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab is expected to report its first quarterly cash burn in over two ​years on Wednesday, as its spending on AI and robotics soars, intensifying investor scrutiny over when those bets will pay ‌off.

CEO Elon Musk has pivoted the electric-vehicle maker's focus from manufacturing cars to building so-called physical AI businesses such as self-driving taxis and humanoid robots. Much of Tesla's valuation hangs on that promise.

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However, investors are growing increasingly uneasy as spending on AI infrastructure, including data centers, and manufacturing capacity is projected to climb to $25 ​billion this year, outstripping quarterly cash generated by Tesla's core automotive and energy operations.

"As capex more than doubles and free cash ​flow turns negative, investors are increasingly focused on evidence that Tesla's spending is strengthening its physical AI moat," ⁠Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note.

Investors have been betting that Tesla's autonomous-driving technology and robotics ambitions could eventually unlock new, high-margin revenue ​streams. But progress has been slower than many analysts expected, and Musk has missed some self-imposed deadlines.

Soon after launching its robotaxi service in Austin, ​Texas, in April last year, Musk predicted Tesla robotaxis would serve half the U.S. population by the end of 2025. In January, Tesla said the service would expand to seven new cities in the first half of 2026. But its robotaxi network remains confined to Austin, Dallas, Houston in Texas, and Miami in Florida.

Ahead ​of Wednesday's earnings call, the most-voted question on Tesla's investor-relations site, submitted by a retail investor, was: "What is keeping Tesla back from accomplishing ​these short-term goals that they've set for themselves?"

Nine of the top 10 most-voted questions center around Tesla's AI-driven bets - robotaxis, Optimus humanoid robots and its Full ‌Self-Driving technology.

"Why ⁠has growth of robotaxi vehicles stalled? When will we see Cybercab start customer rides?" asked another retail investor.

Tesla has said that it has started manufacturing its Cybercab vehicle, a tailor-made robotaxi without a steering wheel and pedals. However, the vehicles have not been deployed into a robotaxi network, with Musk saying that the production ramp would be "agonizingly slow."

AUTO BUSINESS REBOUNDSTesla delivered a record number of vehicles for the April-to-June period, far exceeding ​market estimates, as higher oil prices ​helped drive sales of EVs, ⁠especially in Europe.

Analysts expect Tesla to deliver 1.7 million vehicles in 2026, up 3.9% from last year, which would snap a two-year skid of declining annual deliveries.

Barclays analysts said investors remained focused on Tesla's AI ​ambitions, but a stronger automotive business would help generate the cash needed to finance those investments.

For the ​second quarter, however, the ⁠vehicle-sales rebound may not be enough to offset heavy spending. Tesla is expected to report negative free cash flow of $3.3 billion, according to LSEG data.

Analysts expect Tesla's second-quarter profit to come in at 50 cents per share, compared with 40 cents per share in the same period a year earlier.

However, ⁠Deutsche Bank ​analysts expect the elimination of upfront Full Self-Driving software purchases earlier this year and ​low interest-rate financing in May to hit profitability.

Wall Street expects automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits of 18.1% in the second quarter, lower than 19.2% in the prior three-month ​period, according to Visible Alpha data.

Reporting by Akash Sriram in Bengaluru and Abhirup Roy in San Francisco; Editing by Mike Colias and Anil D'Silva

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

Akash reports on technology companies in the United States, electric vehicle companies, and the space industry. His reporting usually appears in the Autos & Transportation and Technology sections. He has a postgraduate degree in Conflict, Development, and Security from the University of Leeds. Akash's interests include music, football (soccer), and Formula 1.

Abhirup Roy is a U.S. autos correspondent based in San Francisco, covering Tesla and the wider electric and autonomous vehicle industry. He previously reported from India on global corporations, capital markets regulation, white-collar crime, and corporate litigation. Contact him at (415) 941-8665 or connect securely via Signal on abhiruproy.10

On CNBC’s Fast Money segment titled “A Big Tech Pullback… And Time to Sell Tesla? 7/17/26,” the panel spent much of the block picking apart why the Elon Musk premium built into Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) stock is thinning out just days before the company reports Q2 results on July 22.

The Panel’s Case: Fundamentals Unclear, Technicals Weakening The host framed the setup by saying “the fundamental marginal catalyst is still very unknown” and that “the technicals are frankly the more interesting way to look at the stock right here.”

One trader argued Tesla had been trading as a cheaper listed proxy for SpaceX, a trade that is now unwinding: “people are thinking maybe I just buy SpaceX… they’re not buying a proxy.” Another panelist added that “the magic of Elon too is starting to dissipate” as robotaxi and humanoid robot milestones keep slipping.

The financials give that view something to lean on.

Tesla’s full-year 2025 net income fell nearly 47% to $3.79 billion, while vehicle deliveries declined 9% year over year. Fourth-quarter deliveries dropped 16% from a year earlier to 418,227 units.

Jim Cramer highlighted the deteriorating earnings trend, noting that Tesla’s EPS peaked at $4.07 in 2022 before declining 23% in 2023, 22% in 2024, and another 31% in 2025. The first quarter of 2026 provided some relief, with revenue rising 15.8% year over year to $22.39 billion and automotive gross margin recovering to 21.1%, helped in part by one-time warranty and tariff benefits disclosed in the company’s 8-K.

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Options Desks Are Bearish CNBC options analyst Mike Khouw estimated that the day’s options activity translated into roughly $550 million of net short delta exposure in Tesla shares. The options market was pricing in an implied move of about 7% in either direction through earnings, with call and put positioning roughly balanced overall—a setup Khouw described as “slightly more bearish than usual.”

One notable trade was the September 400/300 put spread, which traded roughly 6,000 contracts at about $35 per spread. The options chain also reflected a defensive tilt. For the September 18 expiry, put volume totaled 61,128 versus 19,591calls, producing a 3.12 put/call volume ratio.

Enter Rivian’s R2 as a Direct Model Y Rival The panel also flagged a competitive wrinkle Tesla has largely avoided: a credible mass-market EV competitor. Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) is beginning external R2 deliveries of a mid-size SUV positioned squarely against the Model 3 and Model Y.

Q1 revenue rose to $1.381 billion, up 11% YoY, with deliveries of 10,365 vehicles, up 20%. Rivian reaffirmed 2026 delivery guidance of 62,000–67,000 vehicles and ended the quarter with $4.83 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments. The company also has access to a DOE loan of up to $4.5 billion for its Georgia plant and an Uber partnership that includes up to $1.25 billion of investment through 2031, supporting deployment of up to 50,000 autonomous R2 robotaxis.

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Focus will move beyond autos to AI. (0:17) Comi-Con starts Thursday. (1:52) U.S. strikes Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. (2:24)

The following is an abridged transcript:

With earnings season in full swing and Tesla (TSLA) is lined up to report Wednesday.

Analysts expect Tesla to report revenue of $26.4B, EPS of $0.54 and automotive gross margin excluding credits slightly above 18%.

Tesla already disclosed that it delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2 and produced 451,758. Beyond the core numbers, investor attention will once again center on the updates on autonomy, software, the robotaxi rollout, and AI4-AI5 chips, as well as the capex needed for the company to be a leader in physical AI.

SA Analyst Yiannis Zourmpanos says Tesla enters earnings with momentum on its side.

“The improvement in demand, rising analyst expectations, and strong execution show that the market could be undervaluing the stock’s potential earnings performance,” he added.

But Agar Capital warns a great company does not necessarily mean a great stock.

They argue its market cap of $1.5T is overvalued by $1T for “businesses that still lack commercial scale, complete authorizations, verifiable unit economics, and significant FCF.”

Here's how the rest of the earnings calendar shapes up:

Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) and AMC Entertainment (AMC) report Monday.

Novartis (NVSEF), 3M (MMM), GM (GM) and Halliburton (HAL) are due Tuesday.

Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), Texas Instruments (TXN), IBM (IBM), AT&T (T), ServiceNow (NOW), Philip Morris (PM) and Kinder Morgan (KMI) join Tesla on Wednesday.

Thursday brings reports from Intel (INTC), T-Mobile (TMUS), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Union Pacific (UNP) and Comcast (CMCSA).

American Express (AXP), Verizon (VZ) and Charter Communications (CHTR) close out the week on Friday.

The economic calendar is very light, but this week also brings, AMD's (AMD) Advancing AI event in San Francisco on Wednesday, where CEO Lisa Su is expected to outline the chipmaker's latest AI strategy.

The biennial Farnborough International Airshow begins Monday, with Boeing (BA), Airbus (EADSF), Embraer (EMBJ) and other industry leaders expected to announce aircraft orders and showcase new technologies.

And San Diego Comic-Con kicks off Thursday, with Disney (DIS), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), and Apple (AAPL) among the media companies expected to showcase upcoming films and streaming content.

In the news this weekend, the U.S. military launched airstrikes targeting Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Sunday in retaliation for an attack in Jordan that killed two American service members and wounded four others, further escalating the conflict between Washington and Tehran.

Walmart (WMT) announced that it has removed four bagged iceberg lettuce salad products after receiving a notice from its supplier, Taylor Farms, as recalls tied to a cyclosporiasis outbreak that causes explosive diarrhea widen.

Taylor Farms is one of the largest suppliers of fresh vegetables and packaged salads in North America, serving retailers including not just Walmart (WMT), but Costco (COST) and Whole Foods Market (AMZN) as well as McDonald's (MCD) and Taco Bell (YUM).

And for income investors, Caterpillar (CAT) and Colgate-Palmolive (CL) go ex-dividend on Monday.

Caterpillar pays on August 19 and Colgate-Palmolive on August 14.

Dell (DELL) goes ex-dividend Tuesday, with a July 31 payout date.

Pfizer (PFE) goes ex-dividend on Friday, paying out Sept. 1.

Tesla (TSLA 2.47%) investors already know the headline numbers for the second quarter. The electric vehicle and energy company said earlier this month that it delivered 480,126 vehicles during the period, up about 25% year over year and more than it has delivered in any second quarter in its history. It also deployed 13.5 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of energy storage products, up about 41% from the year-ago period.

What investors don't know yet is what those record deliveries did to Tesla's profitability. That answer arrives on Wednesday, July 22, when the company posts its second-quarter results after market close, followed by a live management webcast at 5:30 p.m. ET.

With the stock closing Wednesday at $394.46, down about 12% year to date, Tesla commands a market capitalization of about $1.5 trillion and trades at about 360 times earnings. Investors paying that kind of premium aren't buying delivery counts. They need evidence that Tesla can turn all this volume into profit.

That's why I think one line in next week's report matters more than any other: automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credit sales.

Tesla Cybercab. Image source: Tesla.

A four-quarter streak Tesla's core profitability has quietly improved for a full year now. The company's automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits was 12.5% in the first quarter of 2025. It climbed to 15% in the second quarter, 15.4% in the third, 17.9% in the fourth, and 19.2% in the first quarter of 2026.

That's four consecutive quarters of expansion.

This metric is worth attention because it strips out regulatory credits, the emissions credits Tesla sells to other automakers. That revenue is nearly pure profit, but it says nothing about the economics of building cars. And its contribution is shrinking anyway -- credits added 3.7 percentage points to Tesla's automotive gross margin in the first quarter of 2025, but just 1.9 points a year later.

However, there is a caveat in the streak. Tesla said its first-quarter results included one-time benefits related to warranty adjustments and tariffs, which helped both its automotive margin and its 4.2% operating margin.

So the July 22 report has to do two things at once. It has to show that the margin held up near 19% on record volume, and it has to show that Tesla managed this without one-time help.

If the margin excluding credits holds in the high teens, the bull case gets simpler. It would mean Tesla just posted its best second quarter of deliveries ever while preserving the pricing gains and cost work of the past year.

If the number steps back toward the mid-teens, the record quarter looks bought (volume achieved through discounts), and the profit story supporting a $1.5 trillion valuation arguably gets much harder to tell.

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What about robotaxi and energy? Plenty of investors will listen for other things on the call, and reasonably so.

Tesla's energy business deployed 13.5 GWh of storage in the quarter, its second-biggest quarter ever behind the 14.2 GWh it deployed in the fourth quarter of 2025. The segment carried a gross margin of nearly 40% in the first quarter, making it a meaningful profit contributor. Still, energy revenue actually declined 12% year over year in Q1, so deployments alone don't guarantee segment growth.

Then there's autonomy. Tesla ended the first quarter with 1.28 million active Full Self-Driving (Supervised) subscriptions, up 51% year over year, and it launched unsupervised robotaxi rides in Dallas and Houston in April. A subscription base growing that fast is exactly the kind of high-margin revenue the valuation needs more of, so any update on robotaxi expansion or software take rates could move the stock, too.

But those initiatives are still mostly about 2027 and beyond. The margin line shows whether today's business, the one funding all of those bets, is getting more profitable or less as it scales. At 360 times earnings, Tesla doesn't have the luxury of letting profitability drift while investors wait for autonomy.

So when the report lands on July 22, the delivery recap won't be the news -- investors already have it. The number worth finding is the automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits. If the streak extends to five quarters without one-time help, record deliveries and improving profitability would make a powerful combination. If it doesn't, investors may opt to treat the record quarter far less kindly.

Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) is heading into its second-quarter earnings report with robotaxis doing most of the talking.

Bank of America reiterated its Buy rating on the stock and $460 price objective, pointing to the service's rapid expansion, a delivery number that blew past Wall Street estimates, and looming production milestones for the company's Optimus humanoid robot.

The bank said investor focus will center on the pace of robotaxi fleet scaling and new market launches. Tesla now operates in five markets following its July 3 launch in Miami, though its San Francisco service still requires a safety driver. Four additional markets are in preparation, compared with the company's original target of nine cities by the first half of 2026.

Tesla's Texas fleet has scaled quickly, adding more than 100 vehicles over the past month to reach 175, the fastest growth among the robotaxi operators Bank of America tracks. Safety data has remained compelling, with 22 incidents recorded through mid-June since the service's inception and no serious injuries or fatalities. A San Francisco pricing study the bank conducted in June found Tesla was 21% cheaper on average than Waymo, Uber and Lyft, though wait times ran three to four times higher, suggesting demand is outpacing supply.

On the core auto business, Tesla reported second-quarter deliveries of approximately 480,000 vehicles, above consensus estimates of about 406,000 and up 25% year-over-year. That compares with S&P forecasts for global battery electric vehicle sales growth of 15% year-over-year, suggesting Tesla gained roughly 95 basis points of BEV market share. U.S. share rose 50 basis points year-over-year to 46.1% in the quarter.

Bank of America also flagged upcoming updates on Optimus. Tesla is targeting initial production at Fremont for late July or August, around the same time as a possible Gen 3 reveal, with Giga Texas production expected around summer 2027. The bank expects a slow ramp but sees long-term opportunity, forecasting global humanoid shipments of 1.2 million units by 2030 and 10 million by 2035.

Beyond Optimus, the bank expects focus on energy storage following Tesla's agreement with NatPower for 25 GWh using its Megapack system. Tesla remains the leading battery energy storage systems company in the U.S., an area now drawing entrants including Ford, General Motors and BorgWarner.

Bank of America said Tesla is in the early stages of monetizing its autonomy capabilities, which it views as the most significant change agent in the shift toward autonomous, electric transportation.

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares are in the spotlight as earnings, analyst activity and interesting technicals converge.

Tesla stock is showing weakness. Why is TSLA stock retreating? Earnings History & What To ExpectTesla is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings on July 22. Tesla is expected to post earnings per share of 44 cents and revenue of $25.24 billion. In the most recent quarter, Tesla reported earnings per share of $0.41, beating estimates of $0.30 by 0.37%. Revenue came in at $22.39 billion, exceeding the estimate of $22.17 billion by 0.01%.

Over the last 4 quarters, Tesla has averaged an EPS surprise of 0.19% and a revenue surprise of 0.02%.

Investors should watch automotive gross margin excluding credits, along with operating margin, for evidence that revenue growth is translating into real operating leverage — recent earnings beats have leaned more on profitability improvements than outsized revenue surprises.

FSD and software-related revenue signals, including deferred revenue movement, services growth, and any commentary on take-rate, will also be closely watched, since much of Tesla’s valuation still hinges on a broader software ramp. Delivery volumes and pricing commentary should also offer clues on demand elasticity, since volume growth without pricing power could keep EPS capped even if revenue reaches the $25.24 billion target.

Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions The stock carries a Buy Rating with an average price target of $405.70. Notable recent moves include:

Morgan Stanley: Equal-Weight (Raised Target from $415.00 to $417.00) (July 14) Barclays: Equal-Weight (Raised Target from $360.00 to $370.00) (July 14) Wells Fargo: Underweight (Raised Target from $125.00 to $130.00) (July 14) A Bearish Tilt, But Not A BreakdownTesla is trading below all of its major trend gauges, sitting 3.6% under the 20-day SMA ($398.63), 6.2% below the 50-day SMA ($409.97), and 7.9% below the 200-day SMA ($417.36). That alignment keeps the intermediate trend tilted bearish, especially with the 20-day SMA below the 50-day SMA and the death cross (50-day below 200-day) that formed in April still in place.

Momentum is best framed through RSI, which is at 46.28—neutral, but leaning soft and consistent with a market that’s not showing strong upside pressure. RSI measures how "stretched" a move is, and a mid-40s reading typically signals choppy, two-sided trade rather than a clean trend day.

Key Resistance: $433.00 — a round-number area that can act as an overhead pivot where rebounds may stall Key Support: $380.00 — a nearby round-number level close to current trade where buyers may try to defend the pullback From a longer-term perspective, the stock is still up 22.43% over the past 12 months, but the more recent structure has been weaker after a swing low in April and a swing high in May. Traders will be watching whether price can hold the $380.00 area; losing it cleanly would keep the focus on downside follow-through, while reclaiming the 20-day/100-day area would be an early sign the tape is stabilizing.

Tesla Shares Edge LowerTSLA Price Action: At the time of publication, Tesla shares are trading 1.63% lower at $384.68, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

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The logo of Tesla is seen on a Tesla Model Y during Tesla Inc.'s official launch in Bogota, Colombia, November 20, 2025. REUTERS/Luisa Gonzalez/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

CompaniesWASHINGTON, July 16 (Reuters) - The National ​Highway Traffic Safety Administration on Thursday said it was denying ‌a 2024 petition filed by Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab to avoid a recall fix for nearly 20,000 vehicles with headlights that may exceed maximum lighting levels.

Tesla argued the issue ​was inconsequential to motor vehicle safety and did not require ​a recall or notification to consumers. NHTSA said it disagreed ⁠with Tesla’s conclusion that there is no increased risk of ​glare for surrounding traffic or the driver of the vehicle. The recall ​covers about 19,900 2017-2023 model year Tesla Model 3 and Tesla Model Y vehicles, NHTSA said.

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Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The agency noted ​in 2022 it rejected a similar petition from GM (GM.N), opens new tab to avoid ​fixing 820,000 vehicles over a lighting issue.

Tesla added it is unaware of ‌any ⁠complaints or reports of accidents or injuries related to this issue and believes it is inconsequential to safety.

NHTSA said weather conditions such as rain, snow, and fog "could result in light from the noncompliant lamps ​causing veiling glare ​to the driver ⁠or other road users driving" near those Tesla vehicles.

A survey released by the American Automobile Association ​in March said 6 in 10 drivers say glare ​is ⁠a problem after dark, and nearly three-quarters of those believe it has worsened over the past decade.

NHTSA in 2022 rejected a petition to ⁠require ​a recall for vehicles using LED headlights ​including some Tesla Model 3, Ford Bronco, and Rivian R1T motor vehicles. The petition had ​argued they caused excessive glare.

Reporting by David Shepardson; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

Key Takeaways Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2, up 25% year over year and above our model estimate.Energy storage deployments hit 13.5 GWh, up 40% year over year, led by Megapack and Powerwall demand.Tesla's high valuation, $25B capex plan and uncertain AI and robotaxi timelines weigh on its appeal. Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) is slated to release second-quarter 2026 results on July 22, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at 47 cents per share and $24.7 billion, respectively.

The earnings estimate for the to-be-reported quarter has been revised upward by 2 cents over the past 30 days. The bottom-line projection indicates year-over-year growth of 17.5%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 10%.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

For full-year 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for TSLA’s revenues is pegged at $102 billion, implying a rise of 7.6% year over year. The consensus mark for 2026 EPS is pegged at $2.11, suggesting an uptick of around 27% on a year-over-year basis.

In the trailing four quarters, this electric vehicle (EV) and technology giant topped EPS estimates on three occasions and missed once, with the average negative earnings surprise being 5.48%.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Earnings Whispers for TSLA

Our proprietary model predicts an earnings beat for Tesla this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

TSLA has an Earnings ESP of +16.52% and a Zacks Rank #3.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Shaping Tesla’s Q2 ResultsIn the second quarter, Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles (including 467,762 Model 3/Y and 12,364 other models), beating our model estimate of 400,133 units. Deliveries increased 34% sequentially and 25% on a year-over-year basis. It was Tesla’s strongest quarter for EV sales since the third quarter of 2025. Back then, sales got a similar lift when U.S. buyers rushed to purchase before federal EV tax credits expired, prompting Tesla and other automakers to see a temporary surge in demand.

Second-quarter deliveries were largely driven by high gas prices amid the Middle East conflict, which likely pushed consumers toward EVs. Demand trends strengthened across key international markets like Europe and China.Although Tesla doesn’t break down sales by region, Europe was a key catalyst, where sales momentum has been robust in recent months. In China, where Tesla commands a huge presence, retail deliveries rebounded strongly in May, snapping a two-month run of year-over-year sales declines. Despite softer U.S. demand, robust international performance helped offset the weakness.

Tesla’s smaller pure-play EV peers—Rivian Automotive (RIVN - Free Report) and Lucid Group (LCID - Free Report) —came up with contrasting second-quarter delivery reports. While Rivian delivered 12,194 vehicles, topping estimates and its own prior guidance, Lucid fell short of expectations, delivering just 3,953 vehicles. 

Coming back to Tesla, we expect the company’s automotive revenues and gross margins to improve year over year on the back of strong deliveries. We forecast second-quarter total automotive revenues and gross margins at $17 billion (up over 2% year over year) and $3.2 billion (up 11% year over year).

The company’s energy business revenues are also expected to increase as Tesla deployed 13.5 GWh of energy storage in the second quarter, reflecting an uptick of 53% and 40% on a sequential and year-over-year basis, respectively. The number also came ahead of our model projection of 12.66 GWh. The outperformance was driven by stronger-than-expected demand for Megapack and Powerwall.

Tesla Price Performance & ValuationOver the past year, shares of Tesla have risen 23%, outperforming the industry.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Tesla stock is quite overvalued. Going by its price/sales ratio, the company is trading at a forward sales multiple of 13.68, way higher than the industry as well as its own 5-year average.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

How to Play TSLA Stock NowYes, Tesla's delivery trends are improving, but deliveries are no longer the company's central growth story. Its energy storage business is also performing well, though it still accounts for a relatively small portion of overall revenues.

Tesla has aggressively pivoted toward autonomous vehicles (AVs) and artificial intelligence (AI). The problem is these are long-cycle bets with uncertain timelines. The company operates unsupervised robotaxi service in Austin, Dallas, Houston and Miami and supervised service in the San Fransico Bay Area. Still, it has a lot of catching up to do with Alphabet’s (GOOGL - Free Report) Waymo, which is the frontrunner in this space. CEO Elon Musk has already pushed back the robotaxi timeline. The story with Optimus is also not much different. On the first-quarter earnings call, Musk admitted production will be “quite slow” and said it’s “literally impossible to predict” output this year. 

On top of that, Tesla lifted its 2026 capital expenditure forecast from $20 billion to $25 billion. Management has warned that free cash flow could turn negative as it ramps up spending on AI and autonomous-driving initiatives.

Tesla does possess a powerful brand, industry-leading technology capabilities, and multiple long-term growth platforms. Tesla’s next chapter could be transformational, but it is capital-intensive, high-risk, and likely years away from delivering material financial returns. Until then, execution and valuation risks remain concerning. As such, from a broader perspective, this may not be the right entry point for new investors, even if Tesla beats second-quarter earnings expectations.

Tesla stock TSLA fell more than 3% on Monday as investors continued to wait for further progress in the company's artificial intelligence initiatives.

The electric-vehicle maker's stock traded at $393.56 during Monday's session.

The broader market also came under pressure after President Donald Trump announced he was reinstating what he described as a blockade on Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 132 points, or 0.3%.

Trump said in a post on Truth Social: “We are reinstating the THE IRANIAN BLOCKADE, so named because it is only stopping Iran’s ships or customers from entering or leaving.”

Tesla investors have increasingly focused on the company's artificial intelligence strategy, particularly the rollout of its autonomous robotaxi service and the commercialization of its Optimus humanoid robot.

The company launched its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June 2025. While the launch generated significant attention, the expansion has progressed gradually.

The service now operates in several cities but remains substantially smaller than Alphabet's Waymo.

Tesla has yet to begin commercial sales of Optimus, although it is preparing manufacturing capacity for the humanoid robot.

On Friday, the company released a video showing the decommissioning of the Model S and Model X production lines at its Fremont, California, facility.

According to Tesla, the process of removing tooling and infrastructure took less than 50 days, allowing the factory to prepare for Optimus production while continuing to manufacture Model 3 and Model Y vehicles.

Tesla announced in January that it would discontinue production of the Model S and Model X to repurpose manufacturing capacity for robots. Chief Executive Elon Musk has described humanoid robots as a multi-trillion-dollar opportunity.

Despite those plans, investors continue to await updates on the latest version of Optimus as competing robotics companies.

Tesla is expected to provide additional updates on Optimus when it reports second-quarter earnings on July 22.

Jefferies raised its price target on Tesla to $400 from $375 while maintaining a Hold rating, citing the company's stronger-than-expected second-quarter automotive deliveries.

Tesla reported second-quarter deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, including 467,800 Model 3 and Model Y units, exceeding the consensus estimate of around 410,000 vehicles.

Following the delivery results, Jefferies increased its second-quarter earnings before interest and taxes estimate to $1.45 billion, representing a 5.1% margin.

The firm also increased its automotive revenue forecast to $21 billion, including $250 million in zero-emission vehicle credits and $500 million in leasing revenue.

Jefferies expects total group revenue of $28.7 billion and group EBIT of $1.45 billion for the quarter.

Earlier this month, RBC Capital raised its price target on Tesla to $500 from $475, incorporating a premium tied to a potential merger with SpaceX while also updating its standalone valuation for the automaker.

Analyst Tom Narayan said the revised target reflects "a 25-30% premium to current trading levels (and a 15% premium to the stock's intrinsic value) owing to a potential SpaceX acquisition scenario based on unconfirmed media reports."

According to RBC, the most likely transaction structure would involve an all-stock acquisition in which SpaceX acquires Tesla at a 20% to 30% premium.

The firm said the rationale centers on operational collaboration, including proprietary chip manufacturing, Megapacks for data center energy requirements, and joint AI training and fleet management services.

RBC also said Tesla shareholders would likely require a premium because Musk "would control 50%+ of a combined entity, well above the ~20% stake he currently holds in Tesla."

Excluding any potential SpaceX acquisition premium, RBC valued Tesla at $435 per share.

Within that valuation, Narayan increased the firm's robotaxi segment valuation by 20%, citing a higher forecast for the global robotaxi fleet and describing the business as "currently Tesla's most robust opportunity" within a $4.2 trillion total addressable market.

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Leaderboard Quarterly Scorecard Webinar Q&A Summary For Thursday, July 9, 2026 Tesla faces a new bill in New Jersey that could potentially ban its autonomous vehicles because of the method in which they operate. At the same time, on the other side of the world in China, Elon Musk's car company made slight gains in EV market share, despite a year-over-year decline in retail sales. Amid all this news, Tesla (TSLA)…

Copyright ©2026 Investor's Business Daily, LLC. All rights reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

Tesla stock (TSLA) fell on Wednesday as investors continued to look past the electric-vehicle maker's core automotive business and instead focused on the company's long-term artificial intelligence ambitions.

Shares were down 2.2% at $393.91 in midday trading after falling 4% on Tuesday.

The S&P 500 declined 0.8%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.5%.

AI remains the primary focus for investorsDespite reporting stronger-than-expected second-quarter deliveries earlier this month, Tesla's shares have remained under pressure.

The company recently reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter deliveries, selling about 480,000 vehicles worldwide, roughly 70,000 more than Wall Street had projected and 25% higher than a year earlier.

Even so, Tesla shares have declined since the delivery report and remain down about 10% for the year.

Investors continue to place greater emphasis on Tesla's long-term AI strategy, particularly the expansion of its robotaxi network and development of its Optimus humanoid robot.

Tesla launched its AI-trained robotaxi service in Austin about a year ago and now operates across three states.

Investors are waiting for the autonomous ride-hailing business to begin generating meaningful revenue and earnings.

The company is also developing the third generation of its Optimus humanoid robot, another project viewed as central to Tesla's long-term growth story.

For many investors, progress in robotaxis and robotics is expected to have a greater impact on Tesla's valuation than incremental improvements in vehicle sales.

Separately, JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta said on Tuesday that a potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX appears "strategically coherent on paper" but would face significant regulatory and governance challenges.

According to Gupta, combining the two Elon Musk-led companies would unify leadership across businesses spanning artificial intelligence, robotics, transportation, energy, and space, while leveraging shared assets such as the Terafab semiconductor facility.

The analyst noted that SpaceX recently completed a record initial public offering that raised approximately $85 billion at $135 per share, valuing the company at around $2 trillion. Tesla's market capitalization is approximately $1.25 trillion.

Gupta said SpaceX's public listing provides valuable acquisition currency but identified several obstacles to any potential transaction.

He cited China as a major regulatory challenge because of SpaceX's US government and defense contracts alongside Tesla's extensive manufacturing operations in the country.

The analyst also highlighted governance concerns, noting that Musk controls roughly 85% of SpaceX's voting power but about 20% of Tesla's, potentially complicating any merger and raising dilution concerns for Tesla shareholders.

Gupta added that the size difference between the two companies could make the transaction resemble a SpaceX acquisition of Tesla rather than a merger of equals.

Even without a formal combination, the analyst said operational ties between the companies are already extensive through shared engineering talent, artificial intelligence infrastructure, and the Terafab facility in Texas.

Tesla stock NASDAQ:TSLA remained under pressure as Wall Street debated whether a future tie-up with SpaceX could reshape the company’s valuation story.

TSLA closed around $402.90, down over 4% on Tuesday and was red in pre-market trading on Wednesday.

The downward push came despite recent delivery data improving sentiment around the electric-vehicle maker.

The new debate is bigger than cars.

After SpaceX’s record $75 billion IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation, investors are asking whether Elon Musk’s companies could eventually be folded into one broader AI, robotics, energy, transport and space platform.

JPMorgan is not dismissing the Tesla-SpaceX merger idea, but the firm is also not treating the possibility as a simple reason to buy Tesla stock.

JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta said a combination would be “strategically coherent on paper.”

The logic is easy to understand as Tesla brings electric vehicles, batteries, autonomy software and robotics.

SpaceX brings launch systems, Starlink, satellite infrastructure, space-based AI ambitions and deep government-linked aerospace capabilities.

Together, they would look less like two separate Musk companies and more like a single industrial technology platform.

The problem comes at execution stage as Gupta flagged substantial regulatory and jurisdictional hurdles, with China standing out as a key complication.

Tesla has major manufacturing and sales exposure in China, while SpaceX operates in sensitive areas such as satellites, defence-linked infrastructure and space communications.

That mix could make approvals politically difficult.

That is why the JPMorgan note reads more like an “interesting thesis” than a clean buy signal.

Gupta kept a Hold rating on Tesla, while Wall Street’s broader view also remains cautious, with a Hold consensus and an average price target of $399.71, slightly below recent trading levels.

The JPMorgan call gives bulls a new story to trade, but it also gives sceptics a fresh reason to worry about governance, regulation and execution risk.

RBC Capital Markets is taking a more constructive view.

RBC analyst Tom Narayan raised his Tesla price target to $500, incorporating a 25%-30% premium to current trading levels based on a potential SpaceX acquisition scenario.

Narayan’s argument is that closer collaboration between the two companies could unlock value across compute hardware, energy storage, AI training and large-scale infrastructure.

That gives investors a clear bull-versus-cautious split. RBC sees a possible valuation unlock, while JPMorgan sees strategic coherence, but also major complexity.

The analyst's logic may support the long-term “Musk ecosystem” bull case, but it clearly does not settle the buy-now debate.

For TSLA to look more compelling in July, investors need confirmation from Q2 earnings that Tesla’s core business, energy segment and AI ambitions are strengthening, not just another speculative merger angle.

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) keeps proving that investors can become fixated on the wrong metric. Every quarterly delivery report sparks debate over electric vehicle demand, price cuts, and market share. Its recent expansion of the Cybercab robotaxi service into Miami only reinforced that narrative, with Morgan Stanley forecasting Tesla could operate a fleet of roughly 30,000 robotaxis by 2030. 

Those developments matter, but they may not be the biggest reason to own the stock. While headlines remain centered on cars, Tesla has been quietly building another business that could benefit from one of the world’s largest investment themes: modernizing the electric grid.

Tesla’s EVs Still Grab the Spotlight Tesla recently delivered more vehicles than many analysts expected, easing concerns that slowing EV demand would pressure growth throughout 2026. The company’s rollout of its Cybercab robotaxi service into Miami also demonstrated that autonomous transportation remains a central part of Elon Musk’s long-term vision.

Yet, autonomous driving still faces regulatory hurdles, technology risks, and competitive pressure from rivals including Alphabet‘s (NASDAQ:GOOG) Waymo and other emerging players.

Investors, though, should look beyond the vehicles themselves. Whether Tesla sells EVs to individual drivers or deploys them in a ridesharing fleet, both businesses ultimately compete in mature transportation markets. The opportunity investors may be underestimating sits elsewhere.

tsla

Energy Storage is Becoming a Second Growth Engine Tesla’s first-quarter shareholder update showed energy storage deployments declined 15% year over year. At first glance, that looked like a warning sign, but management explained the decline reflected the timing of large utility-scale projects rather than weakening demand. Megapack installations are tied to customer construction schedules, permitting timelines, and grid connections. Unlike vehicle sales, these projects do not arrive evenly throughout the year.

That explanation already appears to be playing out. Tesla just announced a Megapack agreement with Esyasoft, an Indian digital platform for utility grid management and electrification. The deal is worth as much as $3 billion to deliver more than 15 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of battery energy storage systems across the U.K., Western Europe, the Gulf Cooperation Council, and India.

According to Tesla Energy & Charging Vice President Mike Snyder, Tesla’s vertically integrated approach allows the company to streamline projects from design through operation while accelerating deployment of modern grid infrastructure.

The deal also fits a much larger trend. According to Tesla observer Sawyer Merritt on X, more than $9 billion worth of new Tesla Megapack projects totaling over 43 GWh have been announced during the past six weeks. The Basenor blog also highlighted a growing list of recent Megapack wins spanning utilities and commercial customers across multiple continents.

Just this year, Tesla energy has:

Secured the first phase of a program with NatPower to build 25 GWh of storage across Italy and Britain, while targeting over 100 GWh over 20 years. Potential revenue could exceed $15 billion. xAI purchased an $269 million of Megapack product, for a total of over $1 billion worth since 2024. Signed an $80 million order with Belgium’s Energy Solutions Group for a 76 MW / 304 MWh system, with an eye toward a 2027 grid connection. That isn’t the pattern of a business losing momentum. It’s the pattern of one whose revenue arrives in waves.

The Grid May Be Tesla’s Largest Addressable Market Battery storage solves one of renewable energy’s biggest problems: balancing electricity supply when the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing. Utilities worldwide are investing billions to strengthen aging grids while supporting AI data centers, electrification, and rising electricity demand. Tesla’s Megapack business sits squarely at that intersection.

Some investors continue to speculate that Tesla could eventually merge with SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX), creating another catalyst for the shares. Unless and until that happens, however, Tesla already has a powerful growth engine operating in plain sight.

Key Takeaway In short, Tesla’s EV business and robotaxi ambitions deserve attention, but they may no longer define the company’s largest long-term opportunity. Delivery numbers will continue moving the stock quarter to quarter, while Cybercab could reshape transportation over time. Yet the energy business is quietly building a multibillion-dollar backlog supported by global grid modernization. 

Smart investors should keep watching vehicle deliveries, but they should pay even closer attention to Megapack orders. The numbers increasingly suggest Tesla is becoming as much an energy infrastructure company as it is an automaker.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Tesla stock TSLA rose on Monday, recovering some of last week's sharp losses after investors sold the stock despite a stronger-than-expected second-quarter delivery report.

The rebound came as the electric-vehicle maker expanded its robotaxi service to Miami, adding another city to its autonomous ride-hailing network.

Shares of Tesla climbed about 3% to $405.11 in early trading.

The move was also supported by broader market optimism, with the S&P 500 up 0.6% and the Nasdaq climbing around 1%.

The stock gained after Tesla announced that its robotaxi service became available in Miami from July 3, extending the company's autonomous ride-hailing footprint beyond Texas.

The expansion makes Florida the third state where Tesla's robotaxi operations are available.

The company launched its robotaxi service in Austin about a year ago and has since expanded to additional Texas cities. Tesla also operates a rideshare service in San Francisco.

The rollout forms part of Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk's broader strategy to position artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, and robotics as Tesla's next major growth engines.

Investors have closely watched the pace of Tesla's robotaxi expansion, although the rollout has remained gradual as the company prioritizes safety.

Tesla has said it does not expect robotaxis to become a meaningful contributor to revenue and earnings until at least 2027.

Sentiment has also improved following Tesla's second-quarter delivery report, which exceeded Wall Street expectations.

Tesla reported 480,126 global vehicle deliveries during the quarter, representing a 25% increase from a year earlier.

The company also reported that energy deployments rose 41%, extending the momentum of a business that has grown rapidly even as vehicle demand has fluctuated.

The second-quarter performance followed a 6.3% year-over-year increase in deliveries during the first quarter.

Gary Black, managing director of The Future Fund, said in a post on X that he expects Tesla shares to recover further as analysts revise their earnings forecasts.

"I expect TSLA stock to rebound this week as the sell-side climbs over one another to increase 2Q and FY'26 earnings ests," Black said, adding that higher earnings projections "could boost TSLA price targets."

Black nevertheless argued that Tesla's valuation remains demanding.

He said the stock trades at a 2026 price-to-earnings multiple of more than 200 times despite expected long-term earnings-per-share growth of roughly 35% between 2027 and 2032.

According to Black, that "continues to suggest TSLA is fully priced."

He also suggested that higher gasoline prices during the quarter may have contributed more to stronger vehicle demand than growing enthusiasm around autonomous driving.

Analysts maintain constructive outlookMorgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco said Tesla's second-quarter deliveries exceeded sell-side consensus estimates by 18% and represented the company's strongest vehicle growth since the third quarter of 2023.

The firm maintained its Equal Weight rating and a $415 price target.

Separately, Baird reiterated its Outperform rating and $522 price target after Tesla's second-quarter results surpassed both the firm's own forecasts and broader consensus expectations.

Baird also highlighted Tesla's energy storage business, noting that deployments reached 13.5 gigawatt-hours during the quarter, up approximately 41% year over year.

While acknowledging that energy deployments can be uneven from quarter to quarter, the firm described the results as a positive development and said its constructive outlook on Tesla remains unchanged.

Tesla is scheduled to report its full second-quarter financial results after the market closes on July 22.

A Tesla Robotaxi vehicle with a safety monitor employee in the passenger seat drives through traffic in Austin, Texas, U.S., February 13, 2026. REUTERS/Evan Garcia/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

CompaniesJuly 3 (Reuters) - Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab said on Friday its robotaxi was available in Miami, as ​the electric vehicle maker looks to ‌expand its autonomous ride-hailing operations.

The expansion highlights Tesla's efforts to increase adoption of its ​self-driving software, a version of which ​it uses in the robotaxis and ⁠a key part of CEO Elon ​Musk's shift from EVs to AI and ​robotics.

Stay up to date with the latest news, trends and innovations that are driving the global automotive industry with the Reuters Auto File newsletter. Sign up here.

"Robotaxi now available in Miami," Tesla's official robotaxi account said in a post on X.

Tesla's ​move comes as the robotaxi sector ​gains momentum, with competitors such as Alphabet's (GOOGL.O), opens new tab Waymo ‌and ⁠Amazon's (AMZN.O), opens new tab Zoox accelerating their expansion efforts.

Tesla launched its unsupervised robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June, after announcing in April ​plans to ​expand the ⁠offering to Dallas and Houston.

Musk said in May he expects fully ​self-driving cars without human safety monitors ​to ⁠become more widespread in the U.S. later this year.

On Thursday, Tesla posted record-setting second-quarter ⁠deliveries ​that beat Wall Street ​estimates, led by a rebound in Europe.

Reporting by ​Koyena Das in Bengaluru Editing by Rod Nickel

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

Key Takeaways Tesla reported substantially more second-quarter deliveries than Wall Street expected, likely a partial reflection of EV demand pushed higher by high U.S. gas prices amid the U.S.-Iran conflict.Rivian also topped its own second-quarter projections, and lifted its full-year guidance.Shares of Tesla tumbled Thursday morning, while Rivian stock jumped more than 10%. Tesla's deliveries delivered today.

Elon Musk's EV company on Thursday morning said second-quarter deliveries came in above 480,000, substantially topping both Visible Alpha's average of Wall Street analysts' expectations and an average compiled by the company.1

That data—along with news that Rivian (RIVN) said its own Q2 deliveries came in higher than it expected, leading it to lift its full-year guidance—may in part reflect an uptick in EV demand driven by gas prices that were pushed higher by the U.S.-Iran conflict.2 Shares of Rivian were recently up 11%, while Tesla (TSLA) was off more than 6% in early Thursday trading.

Why This Matters to Your Money High gas prices can affect consumer behavior in a number of ways, including restraining other types of spending and sending drivers to the fuel pump more frequently for less gas. Data from the second quarter indicated that they may also have driven car buyers to EVs as they sought relief.

The average price of a gallon of regular unleaded, recently a bit above $3.80 according to AAA data, is down from a month ago but well above year-earlier levels.3 (Here's Investopedia's take on what to expect from gas prices over the balance of 2026.)

Some market experts think gas prices might have had little effect on second-quarter buying habits. "Although there is a tremendous amount of economic and policy uncertainty these days, the new-vehicle market seems to be relatively unfazed," Cox Automotive said last month. 4

Tesla shares had an interesting first half to 2026. They rose about 13% in the second quarter, slightly underperforming the S&P 500, but they were down for the year while the benchmark index rose nearly 10%. More broadly, the Magnificent 7 group of stocks, of which Tesla is a member, retreated over the first six months of the year, reflecting some unease about the health of the Big Tech rally.

CEO Elon Musk has sought to retrain investors from thinking of Tesla as an EV company, encouraging focus on emerging lines of business such as autonomous vehicles, artificial intelligence and robots. Some market watchers, meanwhile, believe the company's long-term future is as a division of SpaceX (SPCX), which Musk brought to public markets last month. Both companies are among the world's most valuable.

Shares of SpaceX, meanwhile, were up about 1% Thursday morning at $159. They're holding above the $150 price at which they started trading on IPO day three weeks ago; earlier this week, the company picked up fresh Wall Street analyst coverage, with Wedbush setting a $190 price target on the shares. That's well above recent levels, but below the stock's post-IPO highs.

AUSTIN, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)--In the second quarter, we produced over 450,000 vehicles, delivered over 480,000 vehicles and deployed 13.5 GWh of energy storage products.

Thank you to all of our customers, employees, suppliers, shareholders and supporters who helped us achieve these results.

Q2 2026

Production

Deliveries

Subject to operating lease accounting

Model 3/Y

442,936

467,762

2%

Other Models

8,822

12,364

2%

Total

451,758

480,126

2%

Tesla will post its financial results for the second quarter of 2026 after market close on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory containing a link to the Q2 2026 update, which will be available on Tesla’s Investor Relations website. Tesla management will hold a live question and answer webcast that day at 4:30 p.m. Central Time (5:30 p.m. Eastern Time) to discuss the Company’s financial and business results and outlook.

What: Tesla Q2 2026 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast
When: Wednesday, July 22, 2026
Time: 4:30 p.m. Central Time / 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time
Q2 2026 Update: https://ir.tesla.com
Webcast: https://ir.tesla.com (live and replay)

Approximately two hours after the Q&A session, an archived version of the webcast will be available on the Company’s website.

For additional information, please visit https://ir.tesla.com.

Our net income and cash flow results will be announced along with the rest of our financial performance when we announce Q2 earnings. Tesla vehicle deliveries and storage deployments represent only two measures of the Company’s financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including average selling price, cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and others as to be disclosed in the 10-Q for the quarter ended on June 30, 2026.

Tesla stock TSLA rose on Wednesday as investors positioned ahead of the electric-vehicle maker's closely watched second-quarter delivery report.

Improving European sales data supported sentiment on Wednesday despite broader weakness across technology stocks.

Shares of Tesla gained in early trading even as much of the technology sector moved lower. The stock was up around 2%.

The broader market was mixed. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 88 points.

Technology stocks were under pressure, with Micron falling 6%, Sandisk dropping 8%, Nvidia losing roughly 2%, and Broadcom declining about 1%. SpaceX shares also fell more than 6%.

Tesla is scheduled to report second-quarter vehicle deliveries on Thursday, a release that could prove pivotal for investor sentiment after several years of slowing growth.

Wall Street estimates vary considerably.

Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect Tesla to deliver approximately 409,000 vehicles during the quarter.

Bloomberg's consensus estimate is closer to 400,000 vehicles, while Tesla's own company-compiled consensus stands at roughly 406,000 units.

The wide range of forecasts highlights uncertainty around demand trends during a quarter shaped by geopolitical tensions, elevated fuel prices, and the continued impact of changes to US electric-vehicle incentives.

A stronger-than-expected result could mark Tesla's second consecutive quarter of year-over-year delivery growth.

The company has not achieved back-to-back quarters of annual delivery growth since 2024.

Growth remains a key challengeTesla's vehicle business has faced a difficult period following years of rapid expansion.

Annual deliveries peaked at approximately 1.8 million vehicles in 2023 before declining in both 2024 and 2025.

Wall Street currently expects Tesla to return to modest growth in 2026, with annual deliveries projected at roughly 1.7 million vehicles.

Several factors have contributed to the slowdown.

Tesla elected not to pursue an all-new lower-priced vehicle platform, instead prioritizing development of its Cybercab robotaxi program.

The company has also faced the impact of the expiration of the $7,500 federal electric-vehicle purchase tax credit, which increased costs for many US consumers.

At the same time, rising gasoline prices provided some support for electric-vehicle demand during the second quarter.

Adding to optimism ahead of the delivery report, new data released Wednesday showed Tesla registrations continued to improve across several European markets during June.

Registrations, which are widely viewed as a proxy for sales, rose 39% in Denmark, 56% in Sweden, and 5.6% in Spain, according to data from bilstatistik.dk, Mobility Sweden, and ANFAC.

In France, registrations more than doubled from a year earlier, according to automotive industry body PFA.

The figures suggest Tesla's European business may be recovering after a challenging period during which the company lost market share amid growing competition from Chinese manufacturers, a relatively limited product lineup, and consumer reactions to Chief Executive Elon Musk's political positions.

Norway was a notable exception. Tesla registrations there fell 43% from a year earlier, according to data from compiler OFV.

Market observers attributed part of the decline to demand being pulled forward ahead of changes to electric-vehicle incentives scheduled for 2026.

Investors have increasingly positioned for a stronger quarter.

Heading into Wednesday's session, Tesla shares had gained 10.8% during the week following consecutive advances on Monday and Tuesday.

The rally suggests investors expect the company to deliver results that support the narrative of stabilizing vehicle demand, even as much of Tesla's long-term valuation remains tied to future opportunities in autonomous driving, robotaxis, and artificial intelligence.

With delivery estimates spread across a wide range and expectations elevated following the recent share-price gains, Thursday's report is likely to be a significant catalyst for the stock.

In its latest autonomous vehicle roadmap, JPMorgan noted that Waymo has 640 autonomous vehicles registered in Texas, compared with just 84 for Tesla, even after Tesla expanded its robotaxi footprint beyond Austin into Dallas and Houston this year. Rather than viewing the gap as a competitive weakness, the firm argues Tesla is intentionally prioritizing software readiness over fleet expansion.

Why Tesla’s Robotaxi Fleet Is SmallerJPMorgan said Tesla has taken a deliberately measured approach to its robotaxi rollout despite investor excitement around the company’s autonomous driving ambitions.

“Our view. Tesla has been cautious in its robotaxi rollout in Austin, and more recently in Dallas and Houston,” the analysts wrote. “On the 1Q call, Tesla management talked about taking a very cautious approach to the rollout of robotaxis.”

According to the note, Tesla believes there are still “many known improvements” that can be made to its Full Self-Driving software before deploying unsupervised vehicles at scale. As a result, the company sees little value in rapidly expanding its commercial fleet while major software upgrades remain in development.

That stands in contrast to Waymo, which has aggressively expanded across Texas after launching in Austin in March 2025 and has since entered Dallas, Houston and San Antonio. Of the company’s 640 Texas autonomous vehicles, JPMorgan estimates about 594 are Jaguar I-PACEs, while 46 are the new sixth-generation Ojai robotaxis.

Tesla’s FSD Progress Could Matter More Than Fleet SizeJPMorgan argues that the robotaxi race is not simply about who has the largest fleet today.

The firm highlighted continued improvements in Tesla’s Full Self-Driving software, noting that FSD version 14.x has surpassed 2,000 miles to critical disengagement, representing roughly a 4.3-fold improvement over the approximately 460 miles achieved by version 13.x.

The analysts also pointed to Tesla’s safety statistics, which show vehicles operating with FSD (Supervised) in North America average 5.5 million miles before a major collision, more than eight times the U.S. average, while traveling about 1.6 million miles before a minor collision, roughly seven times the national average.

Cybercab Could Change The PictureWhile Waymo currently enjoys a sizeable lead in deployed robotaxis, JPMorgan believes Tesla’s strategy is geared toward a much larger rollout once its software reaches the desired level of maturity.

The firm noted that Cybercab has already entered pilot production, with volume production expected later this year, potentially setting the stage for a much faster fleet expansion than investors are seeing today.

For now, the numbers heavily favor Waymo. But JPMorgan’s takeaway is that Tesla’s smaller robotaxi fleet reflects a conscious product strategy rather than an attempt to win the deployment race as quickly as possible.

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Tesla (TSLA +1.38%) is set to report its second-quarter vehicle deliveries in the first days of July -- something that will draw attention away from its more aspirational ventures like robotaxis and humanoid robots. The most important figure from the production and delivery update will likely be the year-over-year growth rate in deliveries.

The update will be timely, as deliveries are the most direct measure of whether demand for Tesla's cars is recovering after a difficult 2025 -- and this quarter is the first meaningful test of whether that recovery has staying power.

In 2025, Tesla delivered 1,636,129 vehicles, down 8.6% from nearly 1.8 million in 2024. The first quarter of 2026 brought a return to growth, with deliveries rising 6.3% year over year to 358,023. But there was a complication: Tesla produced about 50,000 more vehicles than it delivered -- a larger-than-usual gap between supply and demand that likely worried some investors.

So, can Tesla report a strong enough year-over-year growth rate to convince investors that a sustainable rebound in the company's automotive business is underway?

Tesla Cybercab. Image source: Tesla.

Here's the threshold Tesla needs to cross Wall Street's consensus calls for about 406,000 deliveries in the second quarter. Some of the more bullish forecasts run higher, at about 420,000. Either would clear the comparison that matters most: the 384,122 vehicles Tesla delivered in the second quarter of 2025.

Climbing back above that year-ago level would mean Tesla has put together two straight quarters of growth.

So, here's a simple way to frame the report: A number around 406,000 or higher would arguably signal that a meaningful recovery is on track. A figure near or above 420,000 would suggest momentum is building faster than expected. But a result that slips back toward last year's 384,122 would support the bear case, showing that the first-quarter bounce was temporary and that demand still isn't keeping pace with Tesla's production.

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Where the number gets decided While Tesla doesn't break out regional deliveries in its quarterly production and deliveries update, regional performance will be key to the overall figure.

Europe has reportedly recently turned from a weak spot into a source of growth for the company; Tesla's new-car registrations there more than doubled year over year in May, a sharp reversal from the steep declines that weighed on 2025. China, Tesla's second-largest market, has also reportedly held up well, helped by the refreshed Model Y.

The drag, however, may be the United States. With the tax credit having expired at the end of the third quarter of 2025, U.S. demand has cooled, and registrations there have reportedly tracked down by the mid-teens so far this year. So the second-quarter number probably comes down to one question: Is the strength in Europe and China enough to more than offset any domestic softness?

Still, even though the reported year-over-year growth rate for Tesla's deliveries will be an important figure to watch, it's clear that investors buy the stock for far more than its automotive business. After all, that's the only thing that could explain its astronomical valuation. Tesla stock trades at about 345 times earnings -- a multiple that only makes sense if investors are paying for self-driving software and robots rather than for simply electric cars.

But the car business still generates the majority of Tesla's revenue, so a soft delivery number would be a reminder of how far the company is from growing into its wild valuation.

Tesla shares are down about 16% so far in 2026, trading well below their December high near $490. So you can bet investors are hoping for some good news. With that said, the more important update will probably come later in July, when the company reports its full second-quarter results, which will include financials like revenue and cash flow, as well as the company's progress on its important Robotaxi operation and its longer-term ambitions, such as humanoid robots.

Tesla logo is seen on the steering wheel of an electric vehicle at a dealership in Durango, northern Spain, October 30, 2023. REUTERS/Vincent West Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

CompaniesJune 27 (Reuters) - U.S. safety regulators said on Saturday they had closed their probe into Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab vehicles over power steering ​loss, in view of a company recall which ‌was carried out last year.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said the investigation, which had the status of an engineering analysis, ​covered about 376,241 Model 3 and Model Y ​vehicles from the 2023 model year.

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NHTSA opened a ⁠preliminary evaluation in July 2023 into loss of steering ​control reports in Tesla Model 3 and Y vehicles after ​some owners reported an inability to turn the steering wheel or an increase in required effort.

In early 2024, the probe was upgraded ​to an engineering analysis to further investigate the alleged ​defect.

Tesla recalled 376,000 of its vehicles in the U.S. in early 2025, due ‌to ⁠a failure of the power steering assist feature that could make the vehicles harder to steer, particularly at low speeds, raising the risk of a crash.

However, it ​said the recall ​was not ⁠in response to NHTSA's investigation, which remained open at the time.

The recall said that ​Tesla had released an over-the-air software update designed ​to ⁠prevent overvoltage breakdown and overstress of motor drive components on the printed circuit board, which had caused an increase ⁠in ​steering effort.

In view of Tesla's recall, ​the NHTSA's Office of Defects Investigation said it was closing its engineering ​analysis.

Reporting by Disha Mishra in Bengaluru; Editing by Alexander Smith

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Key Takeaways Sweden's TRV asked the EU to reject broader FSD deployment over automated speeding concerns.Regulators also flagged winter-road performance and the Full Self-Driving name.TSLA won Dutch approval in April, with rollout reaching several European countries. Tesla, Inc.’s (TSLA - Free Report) Full Self-Driving (FSD) system recently gained access to public roads in the Netherlands, marking its first approval in Europe and fueling expectations of a broader rollout across the continent. However, not all countries support the expansion. Sweden’s Transport Administration (TRV) has urged the European Union to reject the wider deployment of FSD in its current form.

A key concern for Swedish regulators is Tesla’s “Speed Offset” feature, which allows FSD-equipped vehicles to travel above posted speed limits, per Reuters. While similar functionality exists in conventional cruise-control systems, regulators argue that the risks are greater when the feature is integrated into an automated driving system. In a letter to the EU’s Technical Committee on Motor Vehicles (TCMV), the TRV warned that permitting automated systems to exceed legal speed limits routinely could undermine traffic laws and reduce the intended safety benefits of vehicle automation.

Beyond the speed-related issue, European authorities have also raised concerns about FSD’s performance in challenging winter conditions, particularly on snow-covered roads, as well as the potentially misleading nature of the “Full Self-Driving” name. These concerns come as the TCMV prepares to vote on June 30 on whether to extend the Dutch approval across the European Union.

The TRV does not have the authority to determine Sweden’s position in the European committee vote. That role is held by the Swedish Transport Agency (STA), which acts as the nation’s vehicle type-approval authority.

Per Reuters, the STA has been engaged in discussions with both Tesla and the Dutch road authority, RDW, regarding the matter. One reported meeting between Tesla and regulators lasted about two hours on June 4. Per the STA, talks are still ongoing. While the agency has not yet disclosed how Sweden intends to vote, it noted that the concerns highlighted by the Transport Administration continue to be considered as part of its assessment process.

Despite the opposition, Tesla achieved a significant milestone when Dutch regulators approved FSD for use on public roads in April. Since then, the technology has also been introduced in Belgium, Denmark, Lithuania and Estonia, while approval remains under review in Greece. Although Greek officials criticized Tesla for relying on North American data, they acknowledged that FSD could potentially lead to a substantial reduction in traffic accidents.

Tesla maintains that the Speed Offset feature does not compromise safety because drivers remain responsible for the vehicle and can intervene at any moment. Swedish regulators, however, believe this safeguard is insufficient to address the risks associated with automated speeding.

The European version of FSD already differs from the U.S. version. Instead of driving profiles such as “Sloth” and “Mad Max,” European users can adjust settings through “Max Speed” and “Max Speed Offset” options. The system also handles uncertain speed limits differently, displaying an estimated limit accompanied by a question mark when it lacks definitive information. Additionally, the interface labels the system as “FSD (Supervised)” rather than “Full Self-Driving,” likely to reduce the possibility of drivers misunderstanding the technology’s capabilities.

TSLA’s Zacks Rank & Key PicksTesla currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Some better-ranked stocks in the auto space are Geely Automobile Holdings Limited (GELHY - Free Report) , Douglas Dynamics, Inc. (PLOW - Free Report) and Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX - Free Report) , each sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GELHY’s 2026 sales and earnings implies year-over-year growth of 77.1% and 40.3%, respectively. The EPS estimate for 2026 and 2027 has improved 18 cents and 7 cents, respectively, over the past 30 days.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PLOW’s 2026 sales and earnings implies year-over-year growth of 16.7% and 31.4%, respectively. The EPS estimate for 2026 and 2027 has improved 39 cents and 29 cents, respectively, over the past 60 days.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GTX’s 2026 sales and earnings implies year-over-year growth of 5.6% and 20.4%, respectively. The EPS estimate for 2026 has improved 12 cents over the past 60 days, while the EPS estimate for 2027 has improved a penny over the past 30 days.

The Trump administration’s Department of Transportation (DOT) has proposed new changes to federal vehicle regulations that would allow companies to skip including brake pedals in “vehicles designed to be driven exclusively by automated driving systems.”

The proposal, if adopted, would remove a major regulatory barrier for companies like Tesla and Zoox, which are developing vehicles intended to be fully autonomous, without a steering wheel or pedals. The public will now have 30 days to comment on the proposal before the DOT decides whether to approve the changes.

This is the latest of a series of proposed changes to vehicle laws from the Trump DOT. Late last year, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) proposed removing a number of Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS) requirements around windshield wiping and defogging systems, and tire placards.

President Biden was also working in this direction while in office. During his administration, the NHTSA proposed and ultimately finalized a rule that allowed autonomous vehicles to operate without steering wheels.

Currently, any company developing an autonomous vehicle that is missing parts required by the FMVSS has to request an exemption from the federal government. Even if the exemption is granted, regulations restrict how many such exempted vehicles can be on the road.

Removing requirements for parts like brake pedals will theoretically allow companies to get autonomous vehicles on the road quicker, according to the NHTSA.

“We are at the cusp of the greatest technological revolution in vehicle technology since the innovation of the Model T,” NHTSA Administrator Jonathan Morrison said in a statement. “If we want America to lead the way, we have to reimagine our regulatory framework. That’s why under Secretary Sean Duffy’s AV Framework, NHTSA is tearing down pointless barriers to innovative designs while strengthening the fundamental safety requirements that matter and holding AV developers accountable for safe performance.”

Tesla has spent the last few years developing a two-seater car it calls the Cybercab that is intended to operate without a steering wheel or pedals. The company has never applied for an exemption to the FMVSS standards requiring those controls. Instead, CEO Elon Musk has repeatedly said that his company would deploy the vehicles nationwide once regulatory approval was granted.

In the meantime, Tesla has spent the last year operating a small robotaxi service in Austin, Texas. The company began the service with safety drivers in the front seats, but has steadily removed those drivers, leaving the cars to operate “unsupervised.” The company has admitted to the NHTSA that it is using teleoperators to monitor and, in some rare cases, move the vehicles remotely at low speeds after crashes or to avoid obstacles.

Zoox, which is owned by Amazon, applied for and was granted an exemption from FMVSS standards last year so it could demonstrate its purpose-built robotaxi. The company has since applied for, and is waiting on, another exemption to operate that robotaxi commercially.

Companies like Waymo, which use retrofitted or modified versions of regular vehicles (such as the Jaguar I-Pace), have been able to deploy as many robotaxis as they want since they already have manual controls.

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Sean O’Kane is a reporter who has spent a decade covering the rapidly-evolving business and technology of the transportation industry, including Tesla and the many startups chasing Elon Musk. Most recently, he was a reporter at Bloomberg News where he helped break stories about some of the most notorious EV SPAC flops. He previously worked at The Verge, where he also covered consumer technology, hosted many short- and long-form videos, performed product and editorial photography, and once nearly passed out in a Red Bull Air Race plane.

You can contact or verify outreach from Sean by emailing [email protected] or via encrypted message at okane.01 on Signal.