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Micron Technology (MU 10.13%) is a candidate for stock of the year halfway through 2026. Its shares are trading up about 309% so far in 2026, making it the second-best performing stock in the S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.22%), trailing only Sandisk, another memory chipmaker. Its newfound success has also allowed it to join the $1 trillion valuation club.

But after the stock has quadrupled to start the year, there are obvious questions about how much upside is left. Let's take a look at Micron's business to see if its stock is one to buy now or one to avoid.

Image source: Getty Images.

Memory chip demand isn't slowing down Micron is caught in the middle of the biggest demand wave memory chip companies have ever seen. The data center build-out has required an immense amount of memory, and companies like Micron do not have nearly the capacity to meet demand. When there is a huge demand and low supply, prices skyrocket, and that's exactly what's driving Micron's stock price higher.

This increased demand isn't expected to resolve anytime soon, as Micron believes the memory chip supply crunch will persist beyond calendar year 2027. That means these elevated prices are here to stay, and even with Micron opening new production facilities in 2027, it still may not be enough to drive prices down.

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That creates a bullish environment for Micron's stock, and its finances back it up. During Q3 of fiscal year 2026 (ending May 28), Micron's revenue rose a jaw-dropping 346% year over year to $41.5 billion. For reference, Micron provided guidance for $33.5 billion. That's a huge guidance beat, but it's far from done. Next quarter, Micron expects $50 billion in revenue. Growth is clearly driving Micron's stock, and it's the major reason the stock was up so much following the announcement, but is there still room to run?

Since the quarter underway is Micron's Q4, I think it's best to start valuing the stock on fiscal year (FY) 2027 earnings, which would start in September. From that perspective, Micron's stock trades for a cheap 7.6 times forward earnings.

Data by YCharts.

The S&P 500 trades for 21.5 times forward earnings, and many big tech stocks can trade for far higher. That suggests Micron's stock could still have a long way to run, especially if the memory chip crunch persists beyond 2027.

As a result, I think investors can purchase Micron's stock now and still have solid gains over the next few years.

The Micron Technology logo is displayed on a smartphone screen with the company's website in the background, in Creteil, France, on May 27, 2026. The American semiconductor company officially crosses the symbolic threshold of $1 trillion in market capitalization on Wall Street the previous day. (Photo by Samuel Boivin/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

NurPhoto via Getty Images

This article was written by Doug Nathman, with research by his team at Trefis.

The memory industry is in the midst of an unprecedented boom.

AI servers are driving unprecedented demand for high-bandwidth memory; supply remains tight, and DRAM prices have surged, forcing PC and smartphone makers to look beyond their traditional suppliers. That search is increasingly leading them to China. Apple has reportedly sought approval to source DRAM chips from blacklisted ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), while Dell Technologies, HP Inc., Acer, and ASUS are reportedly considering similar moves.

For companies like Micron (MU), which recently posted gross margins above 84%, the real question is whether today’s extraordinary profitability can survive China’s entry into the market.

And if history is any guide, investors should start paying close attention.

China has followed this playbook before. Solar panels, batteries, EVs, and shipbuilding all went through the same cycle: state-backed investment, reverse-engineered technology, and relentless manufacturing scale, until established global players could no longer compete on cost. Until now, memory chips seemed immune. For nearly three decades, the DRAM market has been dominated by Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron, whose technological lead and manufacturing expertise kept challengers at bay.

But the current shortage may be creating the opening China has been waiting for. If this shortage gives Chinese memory makers their first meaningful foothold with global OEMs, it could mark the biggest competitive shift the DRAM industry has seen in 30 years.

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The Squeeze That Created An OpeningThe proximate cause is the AI memory supercycle. Conventional DRAM contract prices surged between 93% and 98% QoQ over the first quarter of this year.

Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are shifting wafer capacity toward high-bandwidth memory, the premium high-speed memory that sits alongside Nvidia (NVDA) AI accelerators, because that is where the margin is. This is having a major side effect: commodity DRAM, the kind that goes into laptops and phones, is getting squeezed out. Apple just raised MacBook and iPad prices by between $100 and $300, citing component costs, while simultaneously shopping for a cheaper Chinese alternative. Both moves point to the same conclusion: management sees this as structural, not a passing cycle.

That is the opening companies like China’s CXMT could step into. And the speed of its rise is notable. The company began volume DRAM production in 2020. By 2026, its global revenue share had reached 8%, up from 3% a year earlier, making it the fourth-largest DRAM maker. CXMT currently has two 12-inch DRAM fabrication plants with a combined capacity of about 300,000 wafers per month. There are reports that, with a new Shanghai facility as well as other new capacity, CXMT will double its DRAM wafer output to approximately 600,000 wafers per month, according to Reuters. This compares to Micron’s own 385,000 capacity. Revenue is on pace for roughly 700% year-over-year growth in early 2026, with the company posting its first-ever profitable quarter. Its DDR5 chips are already inside Lenovo laptops shipping today.

Investors are betting that Micron will see a multi-year upcycle, driven by long-term contracts for memory. But there could be a catch.

There Are Still ChallengesStill, China’s memory push has a problem that its other sectors, such as solar and EVs, did not. Those industries were won mostly by building factories faster and cheaper than anyone else, using technology that was largely available to whoever could afford it. Memory is different because of a single piece of equipment: extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, made only by the Dutch company ASML, which are not essential for DRAM production but are critical for manufacturing the most advanced chips efficiently. Washington has blocked ASML from selling these machines to Chinese firms, so CXMT is stuck building chips with older tools, no matter how much capital Beijing throws at it.

That shows up clearly in the numbers. CXMT’s DDR5 die is roughly 40% larger than Samsung’s equivalent, which means fewer usable chips per wafer and a structurally worse cost base, not a better one. The larger die size is itself a byproduct of working without EUV: older lithography tools cannot pack circuits as densely, so CXMT needs more silicon to do the same job. Its cost per bit remains more than 30% above the three leading suppliers, suggesting its current profitability is a function of unusually strong pricing across the whole market, not genuine product superiority.

The gap is starker in HBM, the high-bandwidth memory used in AI accelerators and the segment driving SK Hynix’s and Samsung’s surge. CXMT has only sampled HBM2 and HBM3 chips with customers like Huawei; commercial-volume production keeps slipping, even as rivals are already shipping HBM4. Unlike DDR5, catching up in HBM requires far more than manufacturing scale and capital investment.

What It Means For Micron, Samsung And SK HynixFor the likes of Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix, China’s rise is a challenge, but not an existential one. CXMT is emerging as a credible competitor in commodity DRAM, where it could pressure pricing in PCs and smartphones. But the real investment story has shifted to HBM, where demand from AI accelerators remains strong and technological barriers are much higher. As long as China lacks access to EUV lithography and advanced HBM manufacturing, the incumbents are likely to maintain their lead in the industry’s fastest-growing and most profitable market.

That said, the industry’s trajectory will depend not just on technology, but also on regulation. Export controls, licensing decisions, and trade policy could determine how quickly Chinese suppliers expand globally and how much of the memory market ultimately becomes contestable.

A disciplined portfolio approach helps smooth these risks while still participating in long-term growth themes. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has consistently outperformed its market benchmark since inception, delivering cumulative returns of over 105%.

Micron Technology (MU +1.12%) stock has surged more than 800% during the past 12 months on soaring demand for the company's high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for data centers, which has become a key component in the artificial intelligence (AI) hardware stack.

Despite its incredible gains, Micron stock is still technically cheap when valued against its future potential earnings. However, that paints an incomplete picture, especially with some cracks forming in the AI demand landscape. Here's why I won't buy Micron stock for anywhere near its closing price of $1,145 on June 29.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Micron is playing a critical role in the AI boom Graphics processing units (GPUs), such as those Nvidia supplies, are the primary data center chips used for AI training and inference. HBM stores data in a ready state for when GPUs are ready to process it, which speeds up AI workloads. A low memory capacity would cause bottlenecks, as GPUs would have to pause while waiting to receive more information.

Micron recently started shipping its HBM4 chips, which offer 60% more capacity than its previous HBM3E solution, with a 20% improvement in energy efficiency. Nvidia will use this product in its new Vera Rubin GPU systems, which are expected to lead the industry in terms of AI processing power when they ship to customers in the second half of 2026.

But Micron also has a big opportunity in the personal computing and smartphone segments. AI models are gradually becoming more efficient, so many devices can now run them independently of external data centers, as long as they have a sufficiently high memory capacity. This development is driving a surge in demand for Micron's direct random access memory.

Moreover, Micron says the average vehicle with even basic autonomous capabilities requires more than five times the memory capacity of a traditional vehicle. But it gets better, because the company says humanoid robots need a whopping 10 times more memory than the average autonomous vehicle. As AI seeps into the physical world, these industrial segments could become the next major growth areas for Micron.

Micron's revenue and earnings are skyrocketing Micron generated a record $41.4 billion in revenue during its fiscal 2026 third quarter (ended May 28), a staggering 346% increase from the year-ago period. AI-related memory sales were responsible for the majority of that incredible momentum, across all four of the company's revenue categories:

Segment

Q3 Revenue

Revenue Growth (Year Over Year)

Cloud memory

$13.7 billion

307%

Core data center

$11.5 billion

653%

Mobile and client

$11.5 billion

254%

Automotive and embedded

$4.6 billion

311%

Data source: Micron Technology.

The cloud memory business is where Micron reports sales of its HBM for the data center, while the core data center segment is where it accounts for sales of storage solutions. Together, they accounted for the bulk of the company's total revenue, which isn't surprising given most AI workloads are still processed using centralized infrastructure. However, its results in the mobile and automotive businesses also highlight the impact of AI outside the data center.

Since there is currently a severe shortage of memory worldwide, Micron can dictate prices, and that is significantly boosting its profit margins. As a result, the company's earnings exploded by 1,368% to $24.67 per share in the third quarter.

Management's forecast for the current fourth quarter suggests further momentum lies ahead. The company is expected to generate $50 billion in revenue and earnings of $30.73 per share, representing year-over-year increases of 342% and 985%, respectively.

Micron stock is cheap, but there's a catch Based on Micron's trailing-12-month earnings of $44.23 per share, its stock is trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25.6. That means it's cheaper than the Nasdaq-100 technology index, which has a P/E ratio of 34.1.

According to Wall Street's average forecast (from Yahoo! Finance), Micron's earnings could soar to $148.03 per share in fiscal 2027, placing its stock at a forward P/E ratio of just 7.6. A company growing as fast as Micron would normally command a premium valuation, so why is it so cheap? Simply put, I think many investors feel the memory boom will be relatively short-lived.

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Most memory suppliers are frantically building more manufacturing capacity, which will eventually cause chip prices to crash. When supply eventually catches up to demand, it will be very hard for Micron to increase its earnings from the current level, so its stock might be more expensive today than its forward P/E suggests.

Micron Chief Executive Officer Sanjay Mehrotra doesn't think the memory shortage will ease until around 2028, but that assumes demand remains as robust as it is now -- which brings me to my next point. A recent survey from investment bank UBS Group found that 60% of companies are starting to curb their AI spending by routing tasks to cheaper models, which use less computing power. That isn't good news for chip suppliers.

The survey follows recent comments by Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai, who said he was fielding complaints from many of Google's enterprise customers about the rising cost of using AI. In addition, Uber Technologies' chief operating officer recently said AI spending is getting harder to justify, as companies such as Anthropic and even Microsoft implement passive price increases to offset soaring infrastructure costs.

As a result, despite Micron's seemingly attractive valuation, I wouldn't feel comfortable buying it here. Any sign of a slowdown in data center spending during the next few quarters could spark a severe decline in the stock, and I think that is an increasingly likely outcome.

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Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said Tuesday that memory chipmakers aren't the only ones to blame for the current supply-and-demand imbalance, which has recently led to price hikes for smartphones, computers and other consumer electronics.

Customers who drove a hard bargain in pricing in recent years also contributed to the squeeze, Mehrotra argued, suggesting that left the industry underinvested for the artificial intelligence boom.

"Certain customers drove pricing significantly down in our industry," Mehrotra told Jim Cramer on CNBC's "Mad Money" on Tuesday. "In 2023, our prices came down to one-third of what they were."

The collapse in pricing, Mehrotra said, pushed Micron and other memory suppliers into negative gross margins, leaving much of the industry without the financial flexibility to invest in new manufacturing capacity just as artificial intelligence-driven demand began accelerating. Micron's gross margin fell to negative 7.3% in its fiscal 2023, which ended in August of that year, according to FactSet.

"Companies were losing money. They couldn't afford it," he said. "That really impacted the investment capability of the industry."

Micron continued investing through the downturn, the CEO said. "Of course, those investments were significantly cut back from the year prior." Micron's capital expenditures fell to $7.7 billion in fiscal 2023, down from $12.1 billion in the prior year.

AI-driven demand for memory chips has steadily increased since that 2023 downturn in pricing. The acceleration became more apparent last year, boosting Micron's financial performance. But it has gone to another level in 2026, propelling Micron into one of the stock market's biggest winners. The stock climbed more than 240% in the second quarter and added more than $920 billion in market value, putting Micron's market capitalization at roughly $1.3 trillion.

Mehrotra said that the supply crunch is likely to persist well beyond 2027 because new semiconductor fabrication plants take years to build and next-generation memory has become significantly more complex to manufacture. To help close the gap, Mehrotra said Micron is investing roughly $200 billion in manufacturing and R&D, including new memory fabs in Boise, Idaho and Syracuse, New York. The Boise project is furthest along, the CEO said, with the first chips due out "in the middle of next year" and increasing from there. The Boise site is slated to eventually include two fabs.

The shortage is already being felt beyond the semiconductor industry. Last week, Apple raised prices on several Mac and iPad models after CEO Tim Cook said soaring memory and storage costs had become "unavoidable," underscoring how AI-driven demand is pushing higher component costs into consumer electronics.

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© baranozdemir / Getty Images

A recent This Week in Tech (TWiT) episode titled “Flock of SQLs,” explored an unintended consequence of the AI boom that feels meaningful for semiconductor and consumer hardware stocks. A global RAM shortage driven by AI data center demand is forcing device makers to raise prices. The three dominant memory suppliers, SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung, have little incentive to relieve the squeeze, and meaningful relief may not arrive until 2028. The panel pinned the trouble on hyperscalers’ demand for DRAM and high-bandwidth memory for AI training and inference, and their ability to outspend PC and console OEMs.

Why Consumer Electronics Are Getting More Expensive Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL | AAPL Price Prediction) recently raised its prices by as much as $200 across its lineup. Daniel Rubino characterized this as Apple’s second price hike, with the first coming in March. Jennifer Pattison Tuohy flagged price increases on older devices like the Apple TV and HomePods. The panel said the Apple iPhone, Apple Watch, and AirPods appear exempt for now, likely because Apple secured supply in advance, though panelists still expect expensive new iPhones in September.

On the Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) side, the panel cited the Xbox climbing from $499 toward $799, a hardware reset for Microsoft attributed to memory cost pressure. Valve, makers of the Steam Machine, reportedly told the panel that RAM suppliers gave them a quoted price “or they wouldn’t talk to us again.” Leo Laporte separately suggested, as his own speculation, that Apple may be lobbying the federal government to lift restrictions on a Chinese chipmaker as part of an effort to find more supply.

Why the Memory Shortage Could Last for Years Dan Patterson described a textbook supply squeeze on the episode. The three dominant memory suppliers, SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung, are locking buyers into multi-year deals, with Micron pushing 16 companies into five-year contracts. New fabs cost upward of $10 billion and take five-plus years to build, so the incumbents have no commercial reason to flood the market.

The financials at Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) line up with that thesis. In fiscal Q3 2026, the company reported revenue of $41.46 billion, a year-over-year jump of 345.7%, with non-GAAP EPS of $25.11 and GAAP gross margin of 84.6%. The Cloud Memory segment alone delivered $13.77 billion. Guidance for Q4 calls for revenue of $50.0 billion ± $1.0 billion and EPS of $31.00 ± $1.00. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra told investors that “Micron’s record fiscal Q3 financial results and even stronger outlook for Q4 reflect the strategic value of memory in the AI era.”

On the earnings call, Mehrotra warned that “we continue to expect supply and demand for both DRAM and NAND to remain tight beyond calendar 2026,” and noted Micron can fulfill only “50% to two-thirds” of some key customers’ demand. New U.S. and Singapore capacity is not slated to ship meaningful volume until mid-calendar 2027 and 2028.

What It Means for Investors The key question is how long the memory shortage lasts. The TWiT panel believes relief is unlikely before 2028, while Micron management has already warned that DRAM and NAND markets should remain tight beyond 2026. If AI infrastructure spending continues at its current pace, memory makers could maintain strong pricing power for years to come. If hyperscalers find ways to reduce memory demand or new manufacturing capacity ramps faster than expected, those tailwinds could begin to fade.

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Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU | MU Price Prediction) and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) just reported earnings that expose who holds the AI era’s supply chain leverage. Micron posted a record fiscal Q3 with an 84.9% non-GAAP gross margin. Apple delivered its best March quarter ever at $111.184 billion while flagging reliance on third parties for components as a core risk.

HBM Inhales Wafers. iPhone 17 Carries Cupertino. Micron’s quarter was a memory squeeze made visible. Revenue hit $41.456 billion, up 345.72% year over year, with DRAM prices up in the low-60s% range. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra told investors “DRAM and NAND industry demand continues to significantly exceed industry supply” and that tightness extends beyond calendar 2027. HBM4 is already in volume, with over $1 billion in HBM4 revenue shipped.

Apple leaned on the consumer franchise. iPhone revenue reached $56.994 billion, Services hit an all-time high at $30.976 billion, and Tim Cook credited “extraordinary demand for the iPhone 17 lineup“. Gross margin landed at 46.9%, healthy for hardware but a fraction of Micron’s number.

Floor Pricing vs. Sticker Shock The real story sits in Micron’s contracts. Mehrotra disclosed 16 Strategic Customer Agreements covering roughly 20% of DRAM volume and one-third of NAND volume, with RPO of approximately $100 billion. Crucially, “gross margins at the floor will be well beyond the peaks we experienced in prior cycles.” That is a polite way of saying customers signed away the downside.

Apple sits on the receiving end. According to industry context, Cupertino has been pressured to accept higher memory prices to defend hardware margins from the memory tax. The buyback machine is enormous, with a fresh $100 billion buyback authorization, yet the input costs still flow through Boise.

Lens Micron Apple Gross Margin 84.9% 46.9% Core Bet HBM4 and SCA lock-ins iPhone 17 and Services Key Vulnerability Lead-customer concentration Consumer sticker shock The iPhone 18 Cycle Will Test Both Polymarket pegs 96.2% odds on an iPhone 18 launch in 2026, meaning Apple’s next mass build hits during the tightest memory window in years. I will be watching whether Micron’s Q4 revenue guide of $50.0B and EPS of $31.00 holds as hyperscaler order books refresh, and whether Apple’s Services moat can mask hardware margin compression once consumers see the new price tags.

Why the Supplier Looks Structurally Advantaged, With Caveats For exposure to the side dictating terms in this cycle, Micron looks structurally advantaged right now. The $100 billion RPO floor and forward P/E near 7x tell me the cash flow is not fully priced in yet, even after a 296.92% year-to-date move. Apple offers a steadier profile: a $100 billion buyback and Services growth cushion the input shock. Both names carry downside risk if hyperscaler capex blinks. Memory cycles always end. This one just has unusually strong contractual scaffolding.

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SummaryMicron delivered another record-breaking quarter, with Q3 revenue surging to nearly $41.5 billion on exceptional pricing strength.Non-GAAP gross margins soared to nearly 85%, more than doubling year-over-year, driving adjusted EPS to $25.11 versus $1.91 last year.Management guided Q4 revenue to $50 billion, well above consensus, with gross margins expected to rise further to 86% as price increases moderate.MU generated $18.3 billion in adjusted free cash flow, reduced debt by 40%, and plans to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders over time. Tim Robberts/DigitalVision via Getty Images

As companies try to pivot to a future of Artificial Intelligence, there have been a number of clear winners in the market. One of the biggest has been Micron Technology, Inc. (MU), with

38.33K Followers

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Investors are always reminded that before making any investment, you should do your own proper due diligence on any name directly or indirectly mentioned in this article. Investors should also consider seeking advice from a broker or financial adviser before making any investment decisions. Any material in this article should be considered general information, and not relied on as a formal investment recommendation.

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Micron stock NASDAQ:MU is back in focus after South Korea unveiled a massive semiconductor expansion led by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

For now, the plan is less a direct threat to Micron than a validation of the theme behind its rally: AI memory has become scarce, valuable and strategically important.

But the harder question is, if Samsung and SK Hynix spend hundreds of billions of dollars on new DRAM and high-bandwidth memory capacity, could today’s shortage eventually turn into tomorrow’s supply problem?

Micron’s latest results gave strong signals as the company delivered a blowout quarter, helped by AI demand, high-bandwidth memory shortages and strong pricing across the memory market.

More importantly, Micron showed that customers are no longer treating memory as a routine chip input.

They are trying to lock it in.

Micron has signed $22 billion in strategic customer commitments across data centre, consumer and automotive markets.

These agreements include take-or-pay terms, cash deposits and pricing floors.

In plain English, customers are committing ahead of time because they do not want memory supply to become the bottleneck that slows their AI buildouts.

Daniel Newman, CEO of Futurum Group, told Reuters that the scale of the AI buildout has been underestimated, and that memory should keep commanding “premium pricing” while supply remains constrained.

That is the core Micron bull case, as AI demand is running faster than supply, and MU is one of the few companies able to serve that market at scale.

But there is a catch. Analysts say Micron’s bull case still rests heavily on a tight memory market, and if fresh supply starts to return, pricing power could be the first part of the story to come under pressure.

South Korea’s new chip push is not aimed at Micron directly, but it changes the supply conversation.

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are preparing to invest 800 trillion won, or about $518 billion, in new chip fabrication sites as Seoul tries to cement the country’s lead in AI memory.

The wider plan is tied to President Lee Jae Myung’s industrial strategy, which aims to build semiconductor strength beyond existing hubs around Seoul.

For Samsung, the investment is partly a comeback strategy. The company remains one of the world’s biggest memory players, but SK Hynix and Micron have moved faster in high-bandwidth memory, the high-margin chip category used alongside AI processors.

The analysts at KB Securities-Jefferies noted that if Samsung qualifies successfully for next-generation HBM, the supplier structure could shift more toward SK Hynix and Samsung because of Samsung’s manufacturing capacity.

SK Hynix, meanwhile, is trying to defend the AI-memory crown it has built through Nvidia-linked HBM demand.

As per analysts, its customized AI memory has “fundamentally changed” industry economics and helped SK Hynix become the market leader.

For Micron investors, Korea’s $518 billion chip blitz is not an immediate sell signal.

As per experts, the new fabs will take years to build, and HBM qualification is difficult.

Customers do not switch suppliers overnight, and AI demand is still running ahead of available supply, which is why Micron has been able to secure long-term commitments and pricing protections in the first place.

The risk seems to be more about expectations.

Micron’s valuation has expanded because investors believe memory scarcity can last longer than in past cycles.

If Samsung and SK Hynix convince the market that a credible wave of new DRAM and HBM supply is coming after 2027, investors may start discounting weaker pricing power before the capacity actually arrives.

Nvidia (NVDA 1.42%) has become almost synonymous with the words "artificial intelligence" (AI). When people think of AI, they automatically think of this company -- and for good reason. Nvidia has generated quarter after quarter of explosive earnings growth, with revenue and profit reaching record levels, thanks to its AI products.

The company is the world's leading designer of graphics processing units (GPUs), the powerful chips used to fuel AI tasks, and has expanded across other related products, such as networking tools and enterprise software, to build complete AI systems.

Investors recognized Nvidia's strength in AI and raced to get in on this exciting growth story. The result? Nvidia stock soared more than 1,100% over the past three calendar years.

Of course, investors are always on the lookout for another stock that may perform as well. They may not have to look very far. Micron Technology (MU 6.59%) has proven itself to be an AI heavyweight, providing the memory and storage crucial for AI use. Is Micron stock the new Nvidia? Let's find out.

Image source: Getty Images.

Increasing earnings over time Micron isn't new to the technology scene. The company got its start almost 50 years ago and has served computers and other devices with a portfolio of memory and storage options. This helped the company increase earnings over time, but at a much slower pace than what we're seeing today.

MU Net Income (Quarterly) data by YCharts

Though Micron has seen business ebb and flow in the past, as is normal in the cyclical semiconductor industry, the current surge is a whole new ball game. Needs linked to AI have supercharged growth, as we've seen in recent quarters. The latest is the perfect example, with revenue more than quadrupling to reach past $41 billion and net income jumping from $1.8 billion in the year-earlier period to an eye-popping $28 billion.

On top of this, Micron says that demand is surpassing supply, and the company expects this to continue beyond this calendar year. This supply situation is due to strong AI demand as well as general supply constraints that are impacting the entire memory industry. These include various factors, including the time it takes to ramp up manufacturing facilities and obtain permits, and a complex regulatory framework.

While this is a challenge for Micron, it also means that competition isn't a major problem: There is more than enough business for each of the top players to generate growth.

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How Micron resembles Nvidia Now, let's consider how Micron may resemble Nvidia. Like Nvidia, it plays a key role in the AI growth story. The company offers the DRAM, NAND, and HBM memory products that are crucial to the functioning of the technology. And we can imagine that, as the use of AI agents increases, the need for memory power may become even greater. Agentic AI, seen as the next AI growth driver, involves AI taking action, often through several steps, to solve problems.

Also like Nvidia, Micron has been around for decades, perfecting its products, and today, both companies have achieved extremely high profitability on sales. In fact, Micron's gross margin just surpassed that of Nvidia. Micron's reached more than 84% in the recent quarter, while Nvidia's gross margin tops 74%. So not only are these players benefiting from revenue growth in the AI boom, but they are translating that into significant profit.

One area that separates the two is the following: Nvidia is the AI chip leader and has expanded into related products, as mentioned above. Micron remains a memory and storage specialist -- and in AI, though Micron is growing fast and is among the leaders, South Korea's SK Hynix often is seen as the AI memory giant.

This doesn't necessarily mean Micron won't take the path of Nvidia, from an earnings and stock performance perspective. It does mean the company might come with a bit more risk, though.

Now, let's consider stock performance. Micron is already well on its way along an Nvidia-like path. The stock has soared more than 800% over the past year. So I think Micron might already be the next Nvidia -- and the demand and revenue growth Micron has seen in recent months suggest the stock still may have plenty of room to run over the long term.

The AI boom has transformed one of the semiconductor industry’s most cyclical businesses into one of its tightest markets. Memory chips, once plagued by oversupply and collapsing prices, have become one of the biggest bottlenecks for AI infrastructure. 

That shortage has helped lift Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU | MU Price Prediction), Samsung Electronics, and SK hynix to record profitability as demand for premium memory far exceeds supply. It is in this environment that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is reportedly lobbying the Trump administration for permission to buy memory chips from a blacklisted Chinese supplier.

Micron investors are worried that if a new supply channel is opened, the memory chipmaker’s pricing power, margins, and ultimately its stock could be pressured. However, they needn’t be concerned.

Apple’s Problem Isn’t Micron’s Problem The Financial Times reported that Apple has been lobbying several federal agencies and officials for approval to purchase memory chips from China’s ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), a company placed on the U.S. Entity List because of its ties to the Chinese government and military. Buying from CXMT is reportedly not outright illegal, but doing so without government approval could expose Apple to political backlash and reputational damage.

Apple’s motivation is easy to understand. The company just announced price hikes of roughly 20% on several MacBook and iPad models after CEO Tim Cook said Apple could no longer absorb rising component costs. Its stock suffered its largest single-day loss in more than a year. Memory has become one of the fastest-growing expenses inside consumer electronics, and Apple has long used its enormous purchasing power to squeeze suppliers for lower prices.

Some investors fear that if Washington grants Apple permission, CXMT could become a new source of supply that weakens Micron’s positioning. 

Here is where their markets actually stand:

Company Primary Memory Focus HBM Production Micron DRAM, NAND, HBM Yes Samsung DRAM, NAND, HBM Yes SK hynix DRAM, NAND, HBM Yes CXMT Commodity DRAM No CXMT manufactures conventional DRAM products, including DDR5 memory for PCs and servers, LPDDR5X and LPDDR4X for smartphones and mobile devices, and enterprise RDIMM and MRDIMM modules. What it does not manufacture is high bandwidth memory (HBM), the premium chips powering Nvidia‘s (NASDAQ:NVDA) AI accelerators and the data centers behind today’s AI spending boom.

That distinction matters because HBM carries much higher margins than commodity DRAM, and it remains the product driving Micron’s earnings growth.

Apple Helped Create Today’s Memory Shortage Surprisingly, it was Apple itself that helped create the pricing environment it now wants relief from.

During the last memory downturn, DRAM prices collapsed so far that suppliers, including Micron, saw gross margins sink into negative territory. Apple used its position as the world’s largest memory buyer to negotiate rock-bottom prices. Micron Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana publicly criticized those negotiations, saying Apple’s purchasing tactics were “not constructive” because they discouraged suppliers from investing in new manufacturing capacity.

Many producers delayed or canceled expansion projects. Then AI arrived.

Exploding demand for AI servers rapidly consumed available DRAM capacity, while HBM production became the industry’s highest priority. Years of underinvestment left the market unable to respond quickly, producing today’s shortage and elevated pricing.

In short, Apple is dealing with consequences that were, at least in part, created by the pricing pressure it once imposed on suppliers.

Congressional Scrutiny Remains a Major Obstacle Granted, Apple could still receive government approval, but the political hurdles remain substantial.

Apple attempted something similar in 2022 when it considered sourcing memory from another blacklisted Chinese manufacturer, YMTC. Members of Congress immediately warned the company that moving forward would invite legislative repercussions. CXMT carries many of the same national security concerns, making any approval likely to receive intense congressional scrutiny.

Regardless, even if Apple succeeds, the competitive impact on Micron appears limited. CXMT competes in mainstream DRAM, while Micron’s investment dollars are increasingly directed toward high-margin HBM products where demand continues to exceed supply.

Key Takeaway Apple’s lobbying effort reflects its desire to reduce memory costs after raising hardware prices, not a shift in the competitive landscape for AI memory. CXMT may eventually become another supplier of commodity DRAM, but it does not produce HBM, the segment generating Micron’s strongest growth and profitability.

Ultimately, investors worried this development threatens Micron’s long-term outlook are focusing on the wrong part of the memory market. Apple’s search for cheaper chips says more about its own cost pressures than it does about Micron’s competitive position.

NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) and Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) both posted blockbuster AI infrastructure quarters, but the market reacted in opposite directions. NVIDIA sells the compute. Micron sells the memory that keeps those GPUs fed.

Comparing them now makes sense because each just told investors something different about where AI hardware spending actually lands in 2026.

Blackwell Carries NVIDIA. HBM Carries Micron. NVIDIA’s Q1 FY27 report on May 20, 2026 showed revenue of $81.615 billion, up 85.23% year over year, with Data Center alone at $75.246 billion. Networking inside that segment grew 199%, a number that says NVLink and Spectrum-X are pulling weight, not just GPUs. Non-GAAP EPS landed at $1.87.

Jensen Huang framed the moment bluntly: “The buildout of AI factories, the largest infrastructure expansion in human history, is accelerating at extraordinary speed.”

Micron’s Q2 FY26 earnings report on March 18, 2026 told a wilder cyclical story. Revenue hit $23.86 billion, up 196.29%, with non-GAAP EPS of $12.20 against a $8.73 estimate. Cloud Memory revenue alone reached $7.75 billion at a 66% operating margin.

CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said memory has become “a strategic asset” for hyperscale customers, and the board approved a 30% dividend hike to back that view.

Platform Moat vs. Capacity Bet NVIDIA leans on CUDA, NVLink Fusion, and the announced Vera Rubin platform to lock customers into a full stack. Roughly half of Data Center revenue still comes from hyperscalers, and management is pushing into sovereign and industrial AI to diversify. The catch is China: zero H20 Data Center shipments this quarter, and forward guidance assumes that stays at zero.

Business Driver NVIDIA Micron Main growth engine Blackwell GPUs, NVLink networking HBM and DRAM for AI accelerators Guidance $91.0B Q2 revenue $33.50B Q3 revenue Gross margin 75.0% non-GAAP 74.4% GAAP, guiding to ~81% Micron’s bet is physical. Capex of $6.39 billion in a single quarter funds HBM capacity that order books reportedly stretch into 2027. Being the only U.S.-based memory manufacturer matters for sovereign AI buyers, and a forward P/E of 11 suggests the market still treats this as cyclical. NVIDIA’s P/E sits near 32, which is hardly cheap but reflects platform durability.

The Market Already Voted Differently Since reporting, NVIDIA shares are down 10.38% to $200.04. Micron is up 127.9% to $1,051.77, although it dropped 13.18% on June 23 ahead of its next earnings report.

Polymarket traders give Micron a 95.2% probability of beating quarterly earnings, while NVDA’s near-term crowd consensus clusters at $195 to $210. I will be watching whether Micron’s gross margin actually reaches the guided 81% and whether NVIDIA’s $119 billion in supply commitments converts cleanly.

NVIDIA for Durability, Micron for Torque For investors researching AI exposure that survives a memory price reset, NVIDIA’s profile stands out. The software moat and networking growth give the platform a second leg the bears keep underrating, even with China at zero.

For investors comfortable with cyclicality, Micron offers more torque, because HBM scarcity is real and the forward multiple still leaves room. The shared risk on both theses is a softening in hyperscaler capex guidance later this year, the one variable that pressures both stories at once.

Shares of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL | AAPL Price Prediction) are down 6% in midday trading on Thursday, sitting near $274 after closing the prior session at $293. The slide is Apple stock’s sharpest single-day move in months and stands out against its 38% one-year gain.

The trigger came straight from the C-suite. Apple announced price increases on MacBooks and iPads, and CEO Tim Cook tied the move squarely to soaring memory and storage costs driven by AI data center buildouts. Notably, Apple left iPhone pricing untouched.

The pain is not evenly spread across the supply chain. Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) stock is up 16% at the same time, riding the opposite side of the same memory crunch after a blowout earnings report.

Cook Calls It a “Hundred-Year Flood” The framing came straight from Apple’s chief executive. “This is a hundred-year flood. I’ve never seen anything like it in any area in over 40 years,” Cook stated, calling the price increases “unavoidable” and noting that Apple had tried to shield customers but “the situation has become unsustainable.”

The dollar impact on Apple’s hardware lineup is notable. The MacBook Neo moves from $599 to $699, the MacBook Air from $1,099 to $1,299, and the 14-inch MacBook Pro from $1,699 to $1,999 (with the 16-inch from $2,699 to $2,999). On tablets, the iPad Air 11-inch jumps from $599 to $749 and the 13-inch iPad Pro from $1,299 to $1,499.

Cook also left the door open to additional hikes on “a number of products,” and indicated Apple is willing to deploy cash reserves to help boost memory supply, though it will not build its own memory facilities. He even suggested U.S. policymakers consider easing restrictions on working with Chinese memory suppliers.

That last point is unusual for Apple. It hints at how acute the company views the supply situation, and how few near-term levers it has to pull on component cost.

Memory Buyers Squeezed, Memory Sellers Cashing In The same shortage hammering Apple is rocket fuel for Micron and its shareholders. Micron just reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $41.46 billion, with GAAP gross margin of 85% versus 37.7% a year earlier, and guided fiscal Q4 revenue to $50 billion plus or minus $1 billion.

Those are the quantitative anchors for Cook’s “flood” framing. Memory suppliers like Micron are extracting pricing power from the AI capex cycle, while memory buyers like Apple are passing some of that cost straight through to consumers. The split is unusually stark in semis today, and it reframes Apple stock and Micron stock as two sides of the same trade.

Demand Elasticity Meets Margin Protection The bears are focused on demand destruction. A $100 jump on the entry-level MacBook Neo is meaningful for price-sensitive buyers, and broader tech-sector margin pressure from persistent component inflation is a live concern. Retail sentiment on Apple has tilted bearish, with a Reddit gauge showing a sentiment score of 32 on r/WallStreetBets earlier this week.

The measured view is that loyal Apple customers will absorb most of the price increases, and that leaving iPhone pricing alone protects the company’s most important revenue line. The industry context also matters here. Microsoft, other PC makers, and console builders Nintendo and Sony have already raised their prices, so Apple joins them as the latest name to capitulate.

Apple’s recent results give it some cushion to absorb a bumpy news cycle. The company’s fiscal Q2 2026 revenue came in at $111.18 billion with EPS of $2.01, and Apple’s board authorized a fresh $100 billion buyback alongside a 4% dividend bump. Apple stock also trades at a P/E ratio of 38x, leaving little room for execution slips.

What to Watch Next The near-term tell for Apple stock is whether today’s 6% drop steadies into the close or accelerates as more sell-side notes hit. Cook’s “more hikes may come” warning leaves an open question on Apple’s pricing posture into the holiday quarter, and any guidance refresh could shift the narrative quickly.

Investors can watch for early read-throughs on demand for the higher-priced Mac and iPad lineups, plus commentary from peers exposed to the same memory squeeze. With Micron having just reset expectations on memory pricing, the next earnings cycle for hardware OEMs could surface more margin commentary in the same direction.

For now, the “hundred-year flood” line is doing real work. It explains why Apple stock is among the worst performers in mega-cap tech today and why Micron stock is among the best, and it sets the tone for how investors may want to size their exposure to memory-heavy hardware names from here.

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) Q3 2026 Earnings Call June 24, 2026 4:30 PM EDT

Company Participants

Satya Kumar - Corporate VP of Investor Relations & Treasurer
Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Chairman
Mark Murphy - Executive VP & CFO

Conference Call Participants

Timothy Arcuri - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division
Joseph Moore - Morgan Stanley, Research Division
Christopher Muse - Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., Research Division
Vivek Arya - BofA Securities, Research Division
Sreekrishnan Sankarnarayanan - TD Cowen, Research Division

Presentation

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining us, and welcome to Micron Technology's Fiscal Third Quarter 2026 Financial Conference Call. After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question-and-answer session. Webcast viewers, please note that you will be able to advance the slides as you view at your own pace.

I will now hand the conference over to Satya Kumar, Corporate Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasury. Satya, please go ahead.

Satya Kumar
Corporate VP of Investor Relations & Treasurer

Thank you, and welcome to Micron Technology's Fiscal Third Quarter 2026 Financial Conference Call. On the call with me today are Sanjay Mehrotra, our Chairman, President and CEO; and Mark Murphy, our CFO. Today's call is being webcast from our Investor Relations site at investors.micron.com including audio and slides. In addition, the press release detailing our quarterly results has been posted on the website, along with the prepared remarks for this call.

Today's discussion contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. These forward-looking statements include statements regarding our future financial and operating performance and our business model, as well as trends and expectations in our business, customers, market, industry products and regulatory and other matters. These statements are based on our current assumptions, and we assume no obligation to update these statements. Please refer to our most recent financial reports on Form 10-K, Forms 10-Q and

BOISE, Idaho, June 24, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Micron Technology, Inc. (Nasdaq: MU) today announced results for its third quarter of fiscal 2026, which ended May 28, 2026.

Fiscal Q3 2026 highlights

Revenue of $41.46 billion versus $23.86 billion for the prior quarter and $9.30 billion for the same period last yearGAAP net income of $28.24 billion, or $24.67 per diluted shareNon-GAAP net income of $28.86 billion, or $25.11 per diluted shareOperating cash flow of $25.39 billion versus $11.90 billion for the prior quarter and $4.61 billion for the same period last year “Micron’s record fiscal Q3 financial results and even stronger outlook for Q4 reflect the strategic value of memory in the AI era,” said Sanjay Mehrotra, Chairman, President and CEO of Micron Technology. “Micron is investing at record levels in technology, products and supply to address our customers’ rapidly growing demand. We believe our multi-year Strategic Customer Agreements will significantly enhance the durability and predictability of Micron’s strong financial performance.”

Quarterly Financial Results GAAP(1) Non-GAAP(2)(in millions, except per share amounts)FQ3-26FQ2-26FQ3-25 FQ3-26FQ2-26FQ3-25        Revenue$41,456 $23,860 $9,301  $41,456 $23,860 $9,301 Gross margin 35,056  17,755  3,508   35,199  17,876  3,623 Percent of revenue 84.6% 74.4% 37.7%  84.9% 74.9% 39.0%Operating expenses 1,738  1,620  1,339   1,518  1,421  1,133 Operating income 33,318  16,135  2,169   33,681  16,455  2,490 Percent of revenue 80.4% 67.6% 23.3%  81.2% 69.0% 26.8%Net income 28,243  13,785  1,885   28,857  14,021  2,181 Diluted earnings per share (EPS) 24.67  12.07  1.68   25.11  12.20  1.91  For the third quarter of 2026, investments in capital expenditures, net(2) were $7.1 billion and adjusted free cash flow(2) was $18.3 billion. Micron ended the quarter with cash, marketable investments, and restricted cash of $30.2 billion. On June 24, 2026, Micron’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share, payable in cash on July 21, 2026, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on July 6, 2026.

Quarterly Business Unit Financial Results FQ3-26FQ2-26FQ3-25    Cloud Memory Business Unit   Revenue$13,769 $7,749 $3,386 Gross margin 83% 74% 58%Operating margin 78% 66% 46%    Core Data Center Business Unit   Revenue$11,524 $5,687 $1,530 Gross margin 87% 74% 38%Operating margin 83% 67% 20%    Mobile and Client Business Unit   Revenue$11,521 $7,711 $3,255 Gross margin 87% 79% 24%Operating margin 86% 76% 15%    Automotive and Embedded Business Unit   Revenue$4,634 $2,708 $1,127 Gross margin 79% 68% 26%Operating margin 75% 62% 11% Business Outlook

The following table presents Micron’s guidance for the fourth quarter of 2026:

FQ4-26GAAP(1) OutlookNon-GAAP(2) Outlook   Revenue$50.0 billion ± $1.0 billion$50.0 billion ± $1.0 billionGross marginApproximately 86%Approximately 86%Operating expensesApproximately $1.86 billionApproximately $1.65 billionDiluted earnings per share$30.73 ± $1.00$31.00 ± $1.00 Further information regarding Micron’s business outlook is included in the prepared remarks and slides, which have been posted at investors.micron.com.

Product highlights

HBM4, built on 1-beta DRAM technology, is in high-volume shipments for our lead customer's platform, and qualification samples have been shipped to multiple end-customers.Development of HBM4E, built on 1-gamma DRAM technology, is well underway, with volume production expected in calendar 2027.Qualification samples of 256GB DDR5 RDIMMs, built on 1-gamma DRAM technology and advanced 3D die stacking, has shipped to key server ecosystem enablers.Our LP5X SOCAMM2 products are in high-volume production, and we have expanded our LP5X SOCAMM2 offerings across multiple capacity points.G9-based PCIe Gen6 high-performance SSD is now in high-volume production.We commenced shipments of our high-capacity 245TB QLC SSD.Gen5 QLC PC Client SSD with G9 NAND has achieved successful lead customer qualification.1-gamma 16Gb LPDDR5X has begun high-volume ramp at a leading smartphone OEM, and we are currently sampling our 1-gamma 24Gb LP5X product to multiple smartphone customers.1-gamma LPDDR5 reached automotive product readiness, with samples delivered to key customers, and we shipped our first 1-gamma DDR5 samples to a robotaxi customer.G9-based UFS 4.1 automotive NAND solution began first volume shipments. Investor Webcast

Micron will host a conference call on Wednesday, June 24, 2026 at 2:30 p.m. Mountain Time to discuss its third quarter financial results and provide forward-looking guidance for its fourth quarter. A live webcast of the call will be available online at investors.micron.com. A webcast replay will be available for one year after the call.

We encourage you to visit our website at micron.com throughout the quarter for the most current information on the company, including information on financial conferences that we may be attending. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X (@MicronTech) and YouTube (@MicronTechnology).

About Micron Technology, Inc.

Micron Technology, Inc. is an industry leader in innovative memory and storage solutions transforming how the world uses information to enrich life for all. With a relentless focus on our customers, technology leadership, and manufacturing and operational excellence, Micron delivers a rich portfolio of high-performance DRAM, NAND, and NOR memory and storage products. Every day, the innovations that our people create fuel the data economy, enabling advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and compute-intensive applications that unleash opportunities — from the data center to the intelligent edge and across the client and mobile user experience. To learn more about Micron Technology, Inc. (Nasdaq: MU), visit micron.com.

© 2026 Micron Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. Micron, the Micron logo, and all other Micron trademarks are the property of Micron Technology, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

Forward-Looking Statements

This press release contains forward-looking statements regarding our industry, our strategic position, our customers, including customer demand, our products and technology, including expectations on production, and our financial and operating performance, including our guidance for the fourth quarter of 2026, as well as our investments in manufacturing and goals for such investments. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to the documents we file with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-Q. These documents contain and identify important factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those contained in these forward-looking statements. These certain factors can be found at investors.micron.com/risk-factor. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot guarantee future results, levels of activity, performance, or achievements. We are under no duty to update any of the forward-looking statements to conform these statements to actual results.

(1)GAAP represents U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles.(2)Non-GAAP represents GAAP excluding the impact of certain activities, which management excludes in analyzing our operating results and understanding trends in our earnings; adjusted free cash flow; investments in capital expenditures, net; and business outlook. Further information regarding Micron’s use of non-GAAP measures and reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures are included within this press release. MICRON TECHNOLOGY, INC.
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS
(In millions, except per share amounts)
(Unaudited)
  3rd Qtr.2nd Qtr.3rd Qtr.Nine Months Ended May 28,
2026February 26,
2026May 29,
2025May 28,
2026May 29,
2025      Revenue$41,456 $23,860 $9,301 $78,959 $26,063 Cost of goods sold 6,400  6,105  5,793  18,502  16,244 Gross margin 35,056  17,755  3,508  60,457  9,819       Research and development 1,316  1,250  965  3,737  2,751 Selling, general, and administrative 407  344  318  1,088  891 Other operating (income) expense, net 15  26  56  43  61 Operating income 33,318  16,135  2,169  55,589  6,116       Interest income 215  155  135  509  350 Interest expense —  (32) (123) (106) (353)Other non-operating income (expense), net (321) (98) (68) (559) (90)  33,212  16,160  2,113  55,433  6,023       Income tax (provision) benefit (4,978) (2,371) (235) (8,178) (695)Equity in net income (loss) of equity method investees 9  (4) 7  13  10 Net income$28,243 $13,785 $1,885 $47,268 $5,338       Earnings per share     Basic$25.03 $12.25 $1.69 $41.97 $4.79 Diluted 24.67  12.07  1.68  41.40  4.75       Number of shares used in per share calculations     Basic 1,128  1,126  1,118  1,126  1,114 Diluted 1,145  1,142  1,125  1,142  1,123  MICRON TECHNOLOGY, INC.
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS
(In millions)
(Unaudited) As ofMay 28,
2026February 26,
2026August 28,
2025    Assets   Cash and equivalents$24,995 $13,908 $9,642 Short-term investments 1,027  681  665 Receivables 31,025  17,314  9,265 Inventories 8,567  8,267  8,355 Other current assets 1,123  1,243  914 Total current assets 66,737  41,413  28,841 Long-term marketable investments 4,106  2,038  1,629 Property, plant, and equipment 56,426  51,408  46,590 Operating lease right-of-use assets 683  684  736 Intangible assets 473  468  453 Deferred tax assets 700  680  616 Goodwill 1,150  1,150  1,150 Other noncurrent assets 3,837  3,668  2,783 Total assets$134,112 $101,509 $82,798     Liabilities and equity   Accounts payable and accrued expenses$15,521 $10,997 $9,649 Current debt 582  585  560 Other current liabilities 3,385  2,714  1,245 Total current liabilities 19,488  14,296  11,454 Long-term debt 5,140  9,557  14,017 Noncurrent operating lease liabilities 654  656  701 Noncurrent unearned government incentives 1,020  1,002  1,018 Other noncurrent liabilities 7,086  3,539  1,443 Total liabilities 33,388  29,050  28,633     Commitments and contingencies       Shareholders’ equity   Common stock 128  127  127 Additional capital 14,442  14,092  13,339 Retained earnings 94,682  66,824  48,583 Treasury stock (8,502) (8,502) (7,852)Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) (26) (82) (32)Total equity 100,724  72,459  54,165 Total liabilities and equity$134,112 $101,509 $82,798      MICRON TECHNOLOGY, INC.
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS
(In millions)
(Unaudited) Nine Months EndedMay 28,
2026May 29,
2025   Cash flows from operating activities  Net income$47,268 $5,338 Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities:  Depreciation expense and amortization of intangible assets 6,862  6,203 Stock-based compensation 954  722 Change in operating assets and liabilities:  Receivables (19,953) (123)Inventories (212) 148 Accounts payable and accrued expenses 3,329  38 Other current liabilities 2,139  (681)Other noncurrent liabilities 5,203  259 Other 112  (109)Net cash provided by operating activities 45,702  11,795    Cash flows from investing activities  Expenditures for property, plant, and equipment (19,602) (10,199)Purchases of available-for-sale securities (4,072) (1,203)Proceeds from government incentives 2,989  1,294 Proceeds from maturities and sales of available-for-sale securities 1,233  1,249 Other (236) (30)Net cash used for investing activities (19,688) (8,889)   Cash flows from financing activities  Repayments of debt (9,380) (3,604)Repurchases of common stock - withholdings on employee equity awards (762) (290)Repurchases of common stock - repurchase program (650) — Payments of dividends to shareholders (437) (392)Proceeds from issuance of debt —  4,430 Other 583  70 Net cash used for financing activities (10,646) 214    Effect of changes in currency exchange rates on cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash 8  (3)   Net increase in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash 15,376  3,117 Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash at beginning of period 9,646  7,052 Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash at end of period$25,022 $10,169  MICRON TECHNOLOGY, INC.
RECONCILIATION OF GAAP TO NON-GAAP MEASURES
(In millions, except per share amounts)  3rd Qtr.2nd Qtr.3rd Qtr. May 28,
2026February 26,
2026May 29,
2025    GAAP gross margin$35,056 $17,755 $3,508 Stock-based compensation 143  121  115 Non-GAAP gross margin$35,199 $17,876 $3,623     GAAP operating expenses$1,738 $1,620 $1,339 Stock-based compensation (198) (176) (148)Other (22) (23) (58)Non-GAAP operating expenses$1,518 $1,421 $1,133     GAAP operating income$33,318 $16,135 $2,169 Stock-based compensation 341  297  263 Other 22  23  58 Non-GAAP operating income$33,681 $16,455 $2,490     GAAP net income$28,243 $13,785 $1,885 Stock-based compensation 341  297  263 Loss on debt prepayments 325  47  46 Other 23  25  58 Estimated tax effects of above and other tax adjustments (75) (133) (71)Non-GAAP net income$28,857 $14,021 $2,181     GAAP weighted-average common shares outstanding - Diluted 1,145  1,142  1,125 Adjustment for stock-based compensation 4  7  19 Non-GAAP weighted-average common shares outstanding - Diluted 1,149  1,149  1,144     GAAP diluted earnings per share$24.67 $12.07 $1.68 Effects of the above adjustments 0.44  0.13  0.23 Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share$25.11 $12.20 $1.91  RECONCILIATION OF GAAP TO NON-GAAP MEASURES, Continued
  3rd Qtr.2nd Qtr.3rd Qtr. May 28,
2026February 26,
2026May 29,
2025    GAAP net cash provided by operating activities$25,388 $11,903 $4,609     Expenditures for property, plant, and equipment (7,826) (6,387) (2,938)Proceeds from sales of property, plant, and equipment 9  5  12 Proceeds from government incentives 733  1,378  266 Investments in capital expenditures, net (7,084) (5,004) (2,660)Adjusted free cash flow$18,304 $6,899 $1,949  The tables above reconcile GAAP to non-GAAP measures of gross margin, operating expenses, operating income, net income, diluted shares, diluted earnings per share, and adjusted free cash flow. The non-GAAP adjustments above may or may not be infrequent or nonrecurring in nature, but are a result of periodic or non-core operating activities. We believe this non-GAAP information is helpful in understanding trends and in analyzing our operating results and earnings. We are providing this information to investors to assist in performing analysis of our operating results. When evaluating performance and making decisions on how to allocate our resources, management uses this non-GAAP information and believes investors should have access to similar data when making their investment decisions. We believe these non-GAAP financial measures increase transparency by providing investors with useful supplemental information about the financial performance of our business, enabling enhanced comparison of our operating results between periods and with peer companies. The presentation of these adjusted amounts varies from amounts presented in accordance with U.S. GAAP and therefore may not be comparable to amounts reported by other companies. Our management excludes the following items as applicable in analyzing our operating results and understanding trends in our earnings:

Stock-based compensation;Gains and losses from settlements;Gains and losses from debt prepayments;Restructure and asset impairments; andThe estimated tax effects of above, non-cash changes in net deferred income taxes, assessments of tax exposures, certain tax matters related to prior fiscal periods, and significant changes in tax law. The divergence between our GAAP and non-GAAP income tax (provision) benefit relates to the difference in our GAAP and non-GAAP estimated annual effective tax rates, which are computed separately. Non-GAAP diluted shares are adjusted for the impact of additional shares resulting from the exclusion of stock-based compensation from non-GAAP income.

MICRON TECHNOLOGY, INC.
RECONCILIATION OF GAAP TO NON-GAAP OUTLOOK
 FQ4-26GAAP Outlook Adjustments Non-GAAP Outlook       Revenue$50.0 billion ± $1.0 billion  —   $50.0 billion ± $1.0 billionGross marginApproximately 86%  —%A Approximately 86%Operating expensesApproximately $1.86 billion $205 millionB Approximately $1.65 billionDiluted earnings per share(1)$30.73 ± $1.00  $0.27 A, B, C $31.00 ± $1.00 Non-GAAP Adjustments
(in millions)    AStock-based compensation – cost of goods sold$159 BStock-based compensation – research and development 138 BStock-based compensation – sales, general, and administrative 67 CTax effects of the above items and other tax adjustments (55)  $309  (1)   GAAP earnings per share and non-GAAP earnings per share based on approximately 1.15 billion diluted shares.

The tables above reconcile our GAAP to non-GAAP guidance based on the current outlook. The guidance does not incorporate the impact of any potential business combinations, divestitures, additional restructuring activities, balance sheet valuation adjustments, strategic investments, financing transactions, and other significant transactions. The timing and impact of such items are dependent on future events that may be uncertain or outside of our control.

Shares of Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU | MU Price Prediction) have been the subject of intense debate this week after a roughly 13% sell-off rattled holders ahead of the company’s fiscal Q3 2026 earnings, scheduled for release today, June 24, after the market close. On CNBC’s Morning Call, Kevin Cassidy, Senior Research Analyst at Rosenblatt Securities, made the case that the pullback is due to “investor jitters” rather than a fundamental break in the memory cycle.

Even after the 13% drop on Tuesday, June 23, MU last traded at $1,071.99 as of June 24, 2026, up 40.05% over one month, 268.68% year to date, and 763.64% over the trailing year. Five-year gains sit at 1,238.55%. The selloff is real, but so is the run that preceded it.

The Bull Case: Supply Discipline Is Keeping Memory Profits High According to Cassidy, the selloff was driven in part by weakness in Korean rivals Samsung and SK Hynix, which he characterized as investor jitters rather than evidence of deteriorating fundamentals. He argues that in a supply-constrained memory market with strong AI-driven demand, owning the memory names is the right trade, and profitability, not market-share grabbing, will be the dominant force for value creation.

Cassidy says Micron is comfortable with its roughly 25-30% market share and is prioritizing margin expansion over volume. He pointed to the company’s phased capacity roadmap as evidence: new fab capacity coming online in Idaho in 2027, a second Idaho fab in 2028, and mega fabs in upstate New York in 2030. Each step is deliberate, designed to avoid the overbuild that crushed the industry only a few years ago.

That memory of pain is central to his argument. Cassidy referenced the dramatic recovery from roughly negative 9% gross margin three years ago, which he says taught the industry not to overbuild. The behavioral shift, in his view, is what makes today’s cycle structurally different.

Why Gross Margin Could Decide Micron’s Next Move The single number analysts are watching with Micron’s earnings tonight is gross margin. He expects guidance for about 84%, up from roughly 81% this reporting quarter. That tracks the trajectory Micron set in its fiscal Q2 report on March 18, 2026, when the company posted revenue of $23.86 billion (+196.3% YoY), non-GAAP EPS of $12.20, and a GAAP gross margin of 74.4%. Q3 guidance called for revenue of $33.5 billion plus or minus $750 million, non-GAAP EPS of $19.15 plus or minus $0.40, and gross margin around 81%. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra at the time told investors the company expects “significant records again in fiscal Q3.”

What the Market Is Pricing Prediction markets and Reddit sentiment paint a split picture. Polymarket assigns a 96.1% probability to an earnings beat tonight, yet only a 53.5% probability that MU closes above $1,000 by month-end. Crowd consensus expects an earnings beat but a slower price recovery.

Reddit conviction tells a similar story. Sentiment scores on r/wallstreetbets and r/investing climbed as high as 81 (very bullish) on June 22, even after the selloff began. One widely upvoted post on r/options noted that “MU is pricing in some insanely abnormal panic”, drawing 136 upvotes.

What to Watch with Micron’s Earnings Tonight The biggest number to watch in Micron’s earnings report is gross margin. Cassidy expects guidance to rise toward 84%, up from roughly 81% this quarter. If Micron delivers that level of margin expansion, it would support the argument that supply remains tight and the recent selloff was driven more by investor nerves than weakening fundamentals.

Investors will also be watching for updates on high-bandwidth memory (HBM) demand, progress on the Idaho and New York fab projects, and management’s outlook for capital returns following last quarter’s 30% dividend increase. By the end of tonight’s call, investors should have a much clearer answer as to whether this week’s pullback was a buying opportunity or the start of a more meaningful reset.

Baird Investment Strategist Ross Mayfield recently appeared on CNBC to push back against the prevailing narrative that the memory cycle has been permanently rewired by AI demand, framing the bull case for Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU | MU Price Prediction) as a position-management problem rather than a definite outcome. His warning comes on a charged day, with Micron reporting fiscal Q3 2026 earnings tonight, June 24, after the market closes. The stock fell roughly 13% on Wednesday as traders reset expectations ahead of the report.

Mayfield’s core argument is that memory remains structurally cyclical, and price matters. It is a seller’s market today, but if elevated DRAM and HBM prices are expected to persist deep into 2027 and 2028, the largest buyers have both the capital and the motivation to engineer their way around Micron’s pricing power. He pointed to companies like Google and Broadcom pursuing compression software and custom-built silicon, and Amazon exploring in-house designs, as evidence that hyperscaler capex can be redirected when memory becomes a constraint rather than a commodity.

The Setup Mayfield Is Worried About Mayfield characterized memory names as up roughly “1,000%” in a year on air. Micron closed at $1,051.77 on June 23, 2026, against $121.78 a year earlier, a 763.64% one-year move. Year-to-date, Micron is up 268.68%, and over five years, the stock has returned 1,238.55%. The market cap now sits near $1.37 trillion, with a trailing P/E around 57 and a forward multiple near 11.

In fiscal Q2 2026, Micron reported $23.86 billion in revenue, non-GAAP EPS of $12.20, and a GAAP gross margin of 74.4%, up from 36.8% a year earlier. Management guided Q3 to revenue of $33.5 billion plus or minus $750 million and a gross margin of approximately 81%. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra told investors that “In the AI era, memory has become a strategic asset for our customers” as the board approved a 30% dividend increase.

Why Margins Are Important for the Industry Mayfield’s core point: an 81% gross margin guide is the kind of number that invites competition. Micron’s Cloud Memory segment posted a 74% gross margin and a 66% operating margin in Q2, with $7.75 billion in revenue.

Hyperscalers paying these prices have a strong incentive to fund alternatives. Google’s TPU roadmap, Amazon’s Trainium silicon, and Meta’s MTIA program already lean on architectural tricks that reduce HBM dependency per training run. Broadcom continues to ship custom ASIC programs for the same buyers. Memory demand remains intact, but this dynamic caps how long suppliers can price as if memory were uniquely scarce.

The historical pattern reinforces the caution. Just two fiscal years ago, Micron was reporting negative EPS through the 2023 trough. The recovery has been steep: $1.56 in Q3 FY2025, $4.78 in Q2 FY2026, and $12.20 in Q3 FY2026. Order books are reportedly extending into 2027, but Mayfield’s question is what 2027-2028 capacity and pricing look like once new fabs ramp and customer workarounds mature.

Key Takeaways for Micron Mayfield’s warning is that Micron’s extraordinary profitability today may encourage the world’s largest technology companies to build alternatives. Micron’s earnings report tonight will help determine whether AI-driven demand remains powerful enough to outweigh that risk.

That’s because Micron has become one of the most important suppliers in the artificial intelligence supply chain.

This Isn’t Just A Micron Earnings ReportWall Street will certainly be watching revenue, earnings and guidance. But investors may be paying even closer attention to commentary surrounding high-bandwidth memory, or HBM.

HBM has emerged as one of the most critical components inside modern AI servers. The technology works alongside Nvidia’s AI accelerators, helping process and move enormous amounts of data needed to train and run large language models.

In simple terms, no HBM means no cutting-edge AI system. As demand for AI infrastructure has exploded, Micron has become one of the biggest beneficiaries.

The Real Question Is AI SpendingInvestors aren’t just looking for signs that Micron is executing well.

Strong HBM demand, improving pricing and bullish commentary about future orders would suggest that hyperscale customers continue to invest heavily in AI data centers.

That would be welcome news for Nvidia, whose growth story remains heavily tied to ongoing AI spending.

On the other hand, any signs of slowing demand could raise questions about whether the AI buildout is beginning to moderate.

Why Nvidia Investors Are WatchingNvidia has become the face of the AI revolution, but Micron sits closer to the underlying infrastructure. While Nvidia sells the processors, Micron helps provide the memory required to make those systems work.

That gives Micron’s management team a unique vantage point into one of Wall Street’s most important themes.

As a result, Wednesday’s earnings report could serve as more than just an update on Micron’s business. It may become one of the market’s first real-time checks on the health of the broader AI spending boom.

And for Nvidia investors, that could make Micron’s earnings one of the most important reports of the quarter.

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Before Micron Technology’s (NASDAQ:MU | MU Price Prediction)  fiscal Q3 2026 results, Stephanie Link of Hightower told CNBC viewers what most retail traders watching a parabolic chart do not want to hear. The fundamentals are fine. The entry point is the problem. Micron is up 229% year to date after a run from $285.28 at the end of 2025 to $1,051.77 at Monday’s close, and Link wants you to wait.

What Link actually said Her exact framing on the segment was direct. “This stock is up 268% year to date. We’re short memory. ASPs are going to be north of 30 to 35%. I think the guidance is going to be great. I think it’s going to be a great report. Just high expectations. Wait for a pullback. You know I’m thinking like 10, 15%, 20%. I think that’s when you can buy.”

Link’s argument is with the cushion. The cycle itself looks healthy. DRAM supply is tight, hyperscalers are still writing capex checks like the cloud build needs another rerun, and Micron has been raising guidance at a cadence that makes the sell-side look quaint. The question on a day like today is whether a stock that already moved 40.05% in the past month can absorb good news without a digestion period.

The numbers behind the run The Q2 fiscal 2026 report Micron delivered in March set the stage for everything that has happened since. Revenue came in at $23.86 billion, up 196.3% year over year, beating the $19.51 billion consensus by 22.28%. Non-GAAP EPS landed at $12.20 against an $8.73 estimate. GAAP gross margin expanded to 74.4% from 36.8% a year earlier, an operating-leverage profile you usually only see in software businesses pretending to be hardware.

Then management guided fiscal Q3 to $33.5 billion in revenue, $19.15 in non-GAAP EPS, and roughly 81% gross margin. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra framed it succinctly in the Q2 release, saying “In the AI era, memory has become a strategic asset for our customers” while the board pushed through a 30% dividend increase to $0.15 per share. The same filing, documents $650 million in repurchases over the six months ended February 26, 2026.

Why expectations are the real risk Link’s caution has receipts. The Polymarket contract for tonight’s report prices a 96.65% probability that Micron beats the $19.66 non-GAAP EPS estimate. Options markets agree something is coming, with one widely shared r/options post noting implied volatility at the 98th percentile heading into the report.

When the prediction market consensus is functionally certain and the options chain is pricing a panic-grade move, a clean beat may already be in the stock. Reddit sentiment captured the tension, with one popular post observing that “MU is pricing in some insanely abnormal panic” the night before earnings.

The Tom Lee counterpoint Tom Lee of Fundstrat offered the patient man’s rebuttal on the same segment. “Investors have actually benefited from taking a longer time horizon on a lot of these ideas. There’s a lot of visibility and that’s pretty scarce when you look outside of AI.”

His point reframes Link’s tactical concern. If order books really extend into 2027 and HBM remains supply-constrained, then trying to thread a 15% pullback risks underweighting an asset that keeps repricing higher between dips.

What to watch tonight Three things matter when results hit. First, whether the company guides fiscal Q4 above the implicit run rate set by tonight’s $33.5 billion midpoint. Second, whether HBM allocations stretch deeper into calendar 2027, which would validate the supply-tightness thesis Link cited.

Third, the reaction itself. A muted move on a clean beat is exactly the pullback Link is waiting for, and the stock already gave back 1.63% on Tuesday’s session before the report. Patience and conviction are both defensible here. The trade is choosing which one matches your time horizon.

CJ Muse went on CNBC this morning and made the case that the memory cycle most investors are watching does not actually peak where they think it peaks. “The real takeaway for memory is that supply is going to be even tighter in 27 than 26,” the Cantor Fitzgerald semiconductor analyst said, “and because of that you can actually think about earnings growth and not only 27 but also 28.” That is the bullish framing investors will be testing against tonight’s fiscal Q3 numbers from Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU | MU Price Prediction), which the company has confirmed will land after the close on June 24, 2026.

Why Muse is anchoring on 2028 The Cantor argument is essentially a duration trade dressed up as a memory call. If hyperscaler compute demand keeps growing through 2029 and 2030, then DRAM and HBM supply, which takes years and tens of billions of dollars to add, simply cannot catch up in the window analysts currently model. Muse pointed to the gap between compute and memory multiples as the giveaway. “If you look at compute multiples memory multiples there’s still significant upside,” he said, “as long as you underwrite the demand for compute, not peaking in 28, but extending into 2930 and beyond.”

The number doing the heavy work in Muse’s framework is $200. “I think the bulls are thinking about $200 of earnings for micron next calendar year. And if that’s right, you’re talking about a stock trading at five times,” he told CNBC, calling that a multiple he does not believe represents the right peak for the name. Micron closed Monday at $1,051.77. The stock is up 229% year to date and 717% over the past year. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NYSEARCA:SMH), for what it is worth, is on pace for its best first half since inception in 2000.

What the last quarter already told us Last quarter is the reason Muse can talk about this with a straight face. Micron’s fiscal Q2 2026, reported March 18, 2026, delivered revenue of $23.86 billion against an $19.51 billion estimate, with non-GAAP EPS of $12.20 versus $9.31 expected. GAAP gross margin reached 74.4%, up from 36.8% a year earlier, and the company guided fiscal Q3 to $33.5 billion in revenue plus or minus $750 million with non-GAAP gross margin near 81%. You can read the full 8-K press release on the SEC’s site.

CEO Sanjay Mehrotra framed the demand picture more soberly than the numbers might suggest. “In the AI era, memory has become a strategic asset for our customers, and we are investing in our global manufacturing footprint to support their growing demand,” he said in the release. The capex line is what makes Muse’s thesis interesting. New fabs ordered today come online in 2028 at the earliest, which leaves 2027 supply largely fixed.

SanDisk is telling you the same story If you want a second data point, look at SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK), the NAND-focused spinoff trading at $1,930 after a 601% year-to-date move. Its most recent quarter posted revenue of $5.95 billion, up 251% year over year.

Datacenter revenue alone grew 645%. CEO David Goeckeler flagged what he called “a structural memory shortage unlikely to ease before 2028” in earlier commentary, language that lines up almost exactly with Muse’s framing.

What to actually watch tonight Polymarket has the crowd pricing a 96.7% probability that Micron beats on the bottom line tonight, against a consensus EPS estimate of $19.66. The beat itself matters less than whether management’s guide and any commentary about HBM3E allocations through 2027 validate the $200 EPS bull case Muse is using.

Analyst consensus targets sit below the current price, with 39 buys, 4 holds, and 1 sell. Sell side has been chasing the move.

The risk Muse himself flags is whether AI workload growth genuinely extends into 2029 and 2030, or whether new capacity arrives faster than the bulls expect. Tonight will not settle that. The order book commentary on the call might.

Micron stock NASDAQ:MU reports fiscal third-quarter earnings after the US market close on Wednesday, and the options market has already marked the event as a potential shock.

The stock has been one of the biggest AI winners of the year, with gains of more than 800% over the past 12 months and a market value that has pushed above $1 trillion.

That makes tonight’s print a test of whether the AI hardware boom can keep outrunning even the most aggressive expectations.

The options chain was already telling that story before a single number dropped.

Saxo Bank said Micron’s near-term options were pricing in an implied move of about 11% in either direction after earnings.

That does not mean traders are betting the stock will rise 11%. It means the market is attaching a high price to uncertainty.

Based on a reference stock price of $1,172.30, Saxo said the options market was implying a post-earnings range of roughly $1,066 to $1,331.

That is a very wide earnings window, even for a stock that has become central to the AI trade.

The reason is volatility, as Saxo pegged front-week implied volatility at about 155%, compared with roughly 109% for July options.

In plain English, the market is charging a huge premium for options that cover the earnings event.

That creates a risk known as “IV crush”. Once the results are out, that event premium can disappear quickly.

A trader can get the direction right and still lose money if Micron’s actual move is smaller than the move already priced into the option.

For ordinary investors, the message is simpler: the market expects fireworks, but it is not saying which way the blast goes.

The reason traders are willing to price such a large move is that Micron is no longer being treated like a normal memory-cycle stock.

TD Cowen analyst Krish Sankar recently lifted his price target on Micron to $1,500 from $660. The core of his argument was blunt: the role of memory in AI is “structural rather than cyclical”.

That phrase matters as memory stocks have historically moved through boom-and-bust cycles. Prices rise, manufacturers add supply, margins peak, and the cycle eventually rolls over.

Wall Street is now asking whether AI has changed that pattern.

Bank of America’s Vivek Arya also raised his Micron target to $1,500 from $950. The timing was notable because the upgrade came as the stock was selling off.

That made the call less like a momentum chase and more like a statement of conviction.

Other target increases have followed the same direction.

TheStreet cited UBS at $1,625, Needham at $1,550, and several other firms clustered well above the stock’s recent trading range.

The fundamental story is high-bandwidth memory, or HBM. These chips sit alongside advanced AI accelerators and are essential for training and running large models.

Supply remains tight, pricing power has extended, and analysts are increasingly treating Micron as a core AI infrastructure beneficiary rather than a commodity memory maker.

Micron’s own guidance has raised the bar. The company guided for fiscal Q3 revenue of $33.5 billion at the midpoint and gross margin of about 81%.

For a memory chipmaker, that margin level would be extraordinary, but it also leaves little room for disappointment.