Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Jim Cramer and Michael Burry rarely agree on anything, but their clash over Micron has turned into a very public, very high-stakes argument about whether the AI bubble pops before June 2027.

This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.

Two of the most-watched names in retail investing are on opposite sides of Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU | MU Price Prediction) this week. Michael Burry told readers on September 28, 2026 that put options had replaced his short positions. His Micron puts expire in June 2027 at a strike of roughly $500. Jim Cramer took the other side on two straight nights. He said anyone shorting Micron ahead of an aggressive December buyback is “digging their own grave.” Cramer did not name Burry.

What Burry Needs From Here A put gains value when a stock falls below its strike price. Micron trades near $1,097.20, so Burry’s position needs the stock to lose about half its value by expiration. Burry wrote that “the bubble in AI may burst sooner than later” and added, “I am moving timelines up. As such, I want more leverage.” Options traders are leaning his way on that expiry. The put/call ratio for the June 17, 2027 contracts stands at 4.21, compared with 0.63 across the full chain.

Cramer’s Lunch With Micron’s CEO On CNBC on October 2, Cramer described a lunch where he told CEO Sanjay Mehrotra that Micron is “no longer a cyclical company” and is now “a secular growth company.” According to Cramer, Mehrotra said that “with the six multiple, it doesn’t make sense.” Micron trades at about 7 times forward earnings, with an analyst target of $1,533.80.

Results That Make Shorting Expensive Micron’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings release showed revenue of $54.23 billion against estimates of $50.97 billion. Non-GAAP EPS of $33.42 beat the $31.35 estimate and was up 1,002% year over year. Gross margin reached 87.0%, compared with 45.7% a year earlier. For fiscal Q1, management guided to $61.5 billion ± $1.5 billion in revenue and $38.15 ± $1.00 in EPS.

The secular argument rests on contracts. Micron now has 26 strategic customer agreements, up from 16 in August. More than 75% of 2027 output is already committed, and remaining performance obligations total about $150 billion. CFO Mark Murphy said, “Even at floor prices, we expect margins meaningfully above any prior cycle peak margins.” Mehrotra added, “We do not have line of sight to when supply and demand will return to balance.”

December Buyback Cramer Calls the Trap Door Micron plans to step up capital returns starting December 9, 2026, the second anniversary of its CHIPS agreements. The company intends to return 100% of excess cash over time, mainly through buybacks. It ended the quarter with $68.3 billion in net cash, while the current authorization is only $2.2 billion, so management expects to seek more soon. Fiscal 2026 buybacks totaled $650 million. Filings and updates are posted on Micron’s investor relations site.

Why Cramer Points to Nucor Cramer said Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE) is the only company he has seen make a similar shift, moving from cyclical steel to diversified brands and gaining a higher valuation. Nucor is up 80.07% over the past year and down 4.11% over the past month. It shipped a record 7.1 million tons from its steel mills in Q2, and management named data centers as a multi-year source of demand.

What Investors Should Track Micron is up 503.34% over the past year and 284.67% year to date, the kind of run that gets dissected in our free playbook on spotting the next Nvidia-scale winner early. Even so, the stock’s reaction to the report was muted, as headlines focused on chip cycle and margin worries. The fiscal Q1 gross margin guide of approximately 86.25% is slightly below Q4, though management called Q1 the floor for fiscal 2027. Keep an eye on the size of the new buyback authorization and on HBM pricing for 2027. Burry’s case depends on that pricing breaking down before June.

Data Sources CNBC, October 2, 2026: Cramer’s lunch with Mehrotra, his secular growth framing and the Nucor comparison. Same source: the December buyback date Cramer cited. Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

SummaryMicron Technology, Inc. has realized outsized gains driven by an unprecedented memory price boom, but I maintain a sell rating due to rising volatility and cyclical risks.MU’s recent results beat expectations with 379% YoY revenue growth, yet the majority of gains stem from memory price increases, not sustainable volume expansion.I see clear signals of memory price deceleration into 2027, with consensus expecting a peak followed by a sharp decline, challenging MU’s forward growth and margin trajectory.Despite attractive PEG and scale advantages, I prefer to rotate out of MU stock, as its risk/reward skews negative amid maturing cycle dynamics and looming guidance headwinds. ismagilov/iStock via Getty Images

I am still out of Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) after a Sell rating at the end of June, when I wanted to explain the replaceable role of the company's key product: memory. Since then, the stock first

242 Followers

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Micron Technology (MU +3.03%) is making cash much faster than it's spending it. The memory chipmaker's non-GAAP (adjusted) free cash flow was $62.3 billion for its fiscal year that ended Sept. 3 -- up from $3.7 billion in fiscal 2025. But the company spent just $650 million of it buying back its own shares.

Alongside its fiscal fourth-quarter results on Wednesday, Sept. 30, Micron said it plans to increase capital return starting Dec. 9. Over time, it intends to give all its excess cash back to shareholders.

Shares trade near $1,065 as I write, giving the company a market cap of about $1.2 trillion. How much of Micron could a buyback that large retire?

Image source: Micron.

A cash pile that keeps growingShowing how fast the cash is coming in, Micron's adjusted free cash flow (cash from operations minus net capital spending) was $33.2 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter, the final three months of the year. This compares to $18.3 billion in fiscal Q3 and just $803 million in the year-ago quarter. Revenue climbed 379% year over year to $54.2 billion, and net income surged almost 12-fold to $37.7 billion. In other words, the fourth quarter alone brought in over half of the year's free cash flow -- an impressive acceleration even for this memory boom.

Most of the cash still sits on the balance sheet. Micron finished the year with $73.5 billion in cash and investments against $5.2 billion in debt, leaving net cash of $68.3 billion.

Capital return, meanwhile, hardly registered. The $650 million buyback came to around 1% of the year's free cash flow.

And Micron spent more (about $1.1 billion) withholding shares from employees' stock awards to pay their taxes. Even with both, the diluted share count climbed around 1.4% year over year in the fourth quarter. And as of May 28, just $2.16 billion was left on the company's current repurchase authorization.

Why wait until December?The timing seems linked to Micron's federal CHIPS Act funding. The company's latest quarterly filing says its buyback authorization is subject to restrictions under its CHIPS Act direct funding agreements. And chief financial officer Mark Murphy pegged the bigger return to Dec. 9, 2026, the second anniversary of the signing of those agreements.

"Over time, we expect to return 100% of our excess cash to shareholders," Murphy said in his prepared remarks for the earnings call.

Later in the call, Murphy said Micron expects to be near its target cash level by the end of this fiscal quarter. He added that the excess would go back to shareholders mainly through buybacks, and that the company expects to seek a bigger authorization soon.

Notably, management hasn't said what that target cash level is.

The cash could retire around 5% of the stock a yearBecause management hasn't defined "excess cash," I'll use fiscal 2026's adjusted free cash flow as a stand-in, assuming Micron's cash already sits near the level it wants to hold.

At around $1,065 a share, $62.3 billion would buy back about 58 million shares in one year. That comes to around 5% of the roughly 1.13 billion shares Micron had outstanding in June.

Premium Feature

Moneyball Superscore

91/100

Today's Change

(

3.03

%) $

32.28

Current Price

$

1,097.39

I'd be more careful adding the $68.3 billion of net cash on top of that. Around $12.7 billion of Micron's cash is customer deposits linked to its long-term supply agreements, and the company expects to return that money to customers over time.

Free cash flow also faces a bigger spending plan. Micron expects around $25 billion of capital expenditures in just the first half of fiscal 2027, near the $27.4 billion of net capital spending in all of fiscal 2026. Still, Murphy said fiscal Q1 free cash flow should be much higher than the fourth quarter's $33.2 billion.

Of course, the price Micron pays matters, too. With the stock at about 14 times earnings, based on fiscal 2026 results, every dollar spent on shares buys about 7 cents of last year's profit. That price is arguably appealing if memory prices hold, but it might look expensive if fiscal 2026 ends up being a peak.

In the end, retiring roughly 5% of the share count a year would probably give earnings per share a steady boost. But that depends on memory prices staying near today's levels, and the higher spending doesn't begin until December. For now, I'd count the buyback as another point in Micron's favor and wait to see the share count drop.

Key Takeaways Micron expects DRAM and NAND markets to remain supply constrained through calendar 2028. MU plans higher fiscal 2027 CapEx, with more spending aimed at construction and cleanroom capacity. Micron has 26 strategic customer agreements covering more than 35% of estimated revenues through 2030. Micron Technology, Inc. (MU - Free Report) used its fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 earnings call to emphasize a tighter memory supply backdrop, stronger customer commitments and heavier investment to expand capacity.

Management also framed fiscal 2027 as another record year, with sequential revenue growth expected each quarter and supply constraints projected through calendar 2028.

MU Sees Supply Tightness Extending Through 2028Sanjay Mehrotra, chairman and CEO, said memory and storage supply-demand conditions should be much tighter in calendar 2027 and 2028 than in 2026.

He expects industry DRAM bit shipments to grow in the low-20% range in both years, while NAND bit shipments grow in the mid-20% range. Micron expects both markets to remain supply constrained.

Mehrotra added that the company does not have line of sight to when supply and demand will return to balance, citing robust demand and the time required to add cleanroom capacity.

Micron Raises Fiscal 2027 Investment PlansMehrotra said Micron plans to increase fiscal 2027 capital expenditures versus prior plans, with most of the increase directed to construction and faster cleanroom availability in late calendar 2028 and beyond.

Mark Murphy, executive vice president and CFO, said first-half fiscal 2027 CapEx is expected to be about $25 billion, including roughly $11.5 billion in the first quarter. Second-half spending is projected to be higher.

Murphy said construction CapEx should grow meaningfully faster than equipment spending as Micron builds capacity while retaining flexibility on equipment timing.

MU Builds More Revenue Visibility Through SCAsMehrotra said Micron has signed 26 strategic customer agreements, or SCAs, representing more than 35% of estimated revenue through 2030.

Financial commitments tied to the agreements have increased to $32 billion, mostly in cash deposits. Murphy said remaining performance obligations are about $150 billion for agreements with determined pricing frameworks.

During Q&A, Mehrotra clarified that more than 75% of Micron's 2027 output is already committed across SCA and non-SCA customers, while discussions increasingly center on 2028 demand.

Micron's HBM and Data Center Mix Stay CentralMehrotra said the vast majority of Micron's calendar 2027 HBM bit supply is covered by agreements with significant year-over-year price increases, helping narrow the gross-margin gap with conventional DRAM.

He also highlighted continued execution on HBM4 and Micron's work with NVIDIA on a custom HBM4E implementation for next-generation platforms.

In NAND, data center SSD revenues reached nearly $10 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter and represented more than two-thirds of the company’s NAND revenues, reflecting AI-related storage demand.

MU Guides to Another Record QuarterMurphy guided fiscal first-quarter 2027 revenues of $61.5 billion, plus or minus $1.5 billion, with non-GAAP gross margin of about 86.25% and non-GAAP EPS of $38.15, plus or minus $1.

He said the fiscal first quarter should mark the gross-margin floor for fiscal 2027, with higher margins expected afterward as pricing improves and temporary cost pressures ease.

For fiscal fourth-quarter 2026, Micron reported non-GAAP EPS of $33.42, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $31.61. Revenues of $54.23 billion also topped the $51 billion consensus estimate.

Micron Faces Questions on Cash Returns and MarginsA UBS analyst pressed management on capital returns and target cash levels. Murphy said Micron expects to be around its target cash level by the end of the fiscal first quarter and plans stronger capital returns beginning Dec. 9.

A Cantor Fitzgerald analyst asked about the first-quarter margin decline. Murphy said roughly $1 billion of higher costs, including incentive compensation and startup expenses, are affecting the quarter.

A Bank of America analyst questioned whether tighter supply could persist into 2028. Mehrotra reiterated that customer demand remains strong and new capacity will take time to ramp.

Micron Keeps Capacity Discipline at the CenterManagement's message centered on expanding capacity without abandoning discipline. Mehrotra tied the investment program to long-term customer commitments and sustained demand across AI-driven markets.

Murphy reinforced that Micron intends to match equipment deployment to demand conditions while maintaining strong free cash flow and increasing capital returns over time.

MU's Zacks Rank and Style Score SignalsMicron currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Its Growth Score, Momentum Score and VGM Score are all A, while its Value Score is C.

The Style Score framework favors A and B grades, especially when paired with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or #2 (Buy). A Zacks Rank #3 can still be held within that framework, but the current Rank does not carry the same estimate-revision signal as the top two ranks. The Zacks Rank can change as analysts revise estimates after the just-reported results. 

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) has reached a point where the value of memory its customers have already committed to buy is larger than everything the company sold in its entire latest financial year.

The chipmaker said Sept. 30 that it now has about $150 billion in remaining performance obligations tied to 26 long-term customer agreements.

Micron generated $133.2 billion in total revenue in fiscal 2026, meaning its contract book is already about 13% larger than a full year of revenue.

That Doesn’t Mean Micron has $150B in the BankThe figure represents revenue Micron expects to recognize in the future as it supplies memory under those agreements. In other words, it is a measure of committed future business rather than cash already collected.

But these are more than loose customer forecasts.

Micron said all 26 agreements include take-or-pay volume commitments, requiring customers to buy agreed amounts or face contractual consequences. The agreements now cover more than 35% of Micron’s estimated revenue through 2030.

For a memory business long known for violent boom-and-bust cycles, that is a remarkable amount of future demand already under contract.

Read Next

Another Important WrinkleMicron calculates the $150 billion figure using minimum pricing where pricing frameworks are already set. The company said actual revenue generated over the life of the agreements is expected to be higher.

That means the $150 billion should not necessarily be viewed as a ceiling on the revenue associated with these contracts.

The agreements also give Micron something that memory companies have historically lacked: greater visibility into future demand. Instead of relying entirely on spot-market conditions and customers’ changing purchasing plans, a significant portion of Micron’s future memory sales is now tied to contractual commitments.

Memory Market in High-Demand, AI EraAI infrastructure requires enormous amounts of memory, and customers are increasingly securing supply in advance. Micron’s long-term agreements suggest that some of that demand is moving from forecasts into contractual commitments.

For investors, the bigger takeaway is not that Micron has suddenly booked $150 billion in revenue. It is that future memory demand is becoming visible on Micron’s books at a scale larger than the company’s entire fiscal 2026 revenue base.

The next question is how much of that contracted demand ultimately translates into revenue, and at what pricing and margins. But for a memory business accustomed to sharp cycles, having more than $150 billion in future obligations already on the books changes investors’ visibility into the cycle ahead.

Read Next

Image via Shutterstock

© 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

SanDisk’s $1,800 Breakout Turns Memory Hardware Into a Profit StoryMicron Technology NASDAQ: MU executives said demand tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure is strengthening into 2027 and 2028, while industry supply remains constrained by cleanroom capacity, increasingly complex high-bandwidth memory products and diminishing returns from technology transitions.

During the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter analyst call, President and Chief Operating Officer Manish Bhatia said Micron has committed more than 75% of its planned shipments for fiscal 2027. That visibility has allowed the company to begin allocation discussions with customers for 2028, he said.

Get Micron Technology alerts:

3 Retail Stocks Getting Crushed and the Long-Dated Options Trade on Each One“We really do not have line of sight to when supply and demand balances,” Bhatia said, citing the combination of stronger demand and structural constraints on supply growth.

AI Demand Expands Beyond Accelerators Bhatia pointed to continued server-unit growth and the spread of agentic AI workloads as major demand drivers. He said agentic AI is creating a CPU-driven source of demand in addition to the memory needs associated with AI accelerators.

NVIDIA Just Named AI's Next Bottleneck—And These 3 Stocks Sit Right In ItAccording to Bhatia, agentic workloads require significant attachments of LP memory, DDR memory and solid-state drives. He said server units are growing in the high teens, while customers are currently seeking to maximize the amount of compute silicon they can ship with available memory supply.

That situation has created latent demand for additional memory, executives said. If more memory became available, customers could add more memory to AI systems and improve system performance.

Bhatia also said the company sees DRAM as the principal constraint on data-center expansion rather than logic or power. He cited the rapid adoption of enterprise and consumer agentic software as evidence of the demand environment.

HBM Remains a Key Growth Product Micron expects high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, shipments to grow faster than conventional DRAM through 2028. Bhatia said the product category will therefore represent a growing share of industry capacity.

The company said it significantly increased HBM pricing for calendar 2027, with the change intended to narrow the profitability gap with conventional DRAM. Micron did not provide an updated estimate for the HBM total addressable market, nor did it provide a specific HBM market-share target.

Bhatia said Micron expects its HBM share to remain around its broader DRAM market share, though he noted that the result may vary based on several factors. He said the company had reached its prior goal of bringing HBM share to its broader DRAM share about a year earlier.

Scott DeBoer, Micron’s President and Chief Technology and Products Officer, said the company has worked with NVIDIA for more than a year on HBM4E, referred to as NVHBM. He characterized it as the first major custom HBM product expected in the market and said the co-designed product could provide value beyond standard HBM4E.

DeBoer clarified that the HBM4E co-design uses a foundry process for both customized and JEDEC-specified products, rather than Micron’s in-house optimized base die approach used with HBM4. He said Micron seeks differentiation through power efficiency, speed performance, product margin and product quality.

Supply Agreements and Capacity Investments Micron said its supply-chain agreements, or SCAs, cover both DRAM and NAND. The company has discussed a goal of SCAs covering 35% of sales by 2030, though Bhatia said Micron was not breaking out the agreements by product category.

He said DRAM bit volume covered by the agreements is somewhat below approximately 35%, while NAND bit volume is somewhat above that level. The company has SCAs across all business units, including mobile and client markets, and said it signed 10 new customers during the quarter.

Most pricing frameworks in the agreements use floors and ceilings, Bhatia said, while approximately one-quarter of SCA revenue has pricing subject to periodic negotiations tied to market conditions. Newer agreements reflect higher current market pricing and Micron’s outlook for future tightness, he added.

Micron is increasing construction capital expenditures primarily to accelerate cleanroom availability beginning in late 2028 and beyond. Bhatia said these investments will not immediately translate into bit production, as fabs must still be equipped and qualified before meaningful shipments begin.

Chief Financial Officer Mark Murphy said most of the planned capital-expenditure increase is directed toward construction rather than equipment. Micron plans to equip cleanrooms and add production capacity based on demand trends, executives said.

Technology, China Exposure and Near-Term Modeling Items DeBoer said Micron’s technology lead over Chinese competitors is currently at least two DRAM nodes. He said Micron’s 1-gamma DRAM technology has become the majority of its bit output and is on track to become the largest node in company history. The company’s next-generation 1-delta node is under development, with a ramp targeted for the second half of next year.

Micron expects China exposure to fall into the single-digit percentage range in fiscal 2027, Bhatia said.

In mobile and client products, Micron reported sequential bit declines but revenue growth driven by higher pricing and favorable mix. Bhatia said premium PCs and flagship smartphones continue to show robust demand for higher-content, higher-performance memory, even as unit volumes decline.

For the fiscal first quarter, Murphy said Micron’s guidance assumes single-digit sequential bit growth and double-digit cost growth for both DRAM and NAND. He also said that, excluding incentive-compensation effects, the company expects its year-over-year research-and-development spending increase to exceed $1 billion in fiscal 2027 as it expands R&D activities.

About Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU)Micron Technology, Inc is a semiconductor company that develops and manufactures memory and storage solutions. Its product portfolio includes dynamic random-access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, three-dimensional XPoint-related technologies, solid-state drives, and high-bandwidth memory products designed for demanding computing applications.

The company serves customers across the data center, artificial intelligence, networking, automotive, industrial, mobile, consumer electronics, and embedded markets.

This instant news alert was generated by narrative science technology and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest reporting and unbiased coverage. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].

Should You Invest $1,000 in Micron Technology Right Now?Before you consider Micron Technology, you'll want to hear this.

MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Micron Technology wasn't on the list.

While Micron Technology currently has a Moderate Buy rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.

View The Five Stocks Here

The AI wave will soon hit public markets with Anthropic and OpenAI set to go public later this year. However, you don't have to wait to invest. This report shows seven AI stocks that you can buy today while the big model providers get ready to go public.

Get This Free Report

Continue following MarketBeat

Add MarketBeat as your preferred source on Google to see our latest stories in your feed.

JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images

Download this episode on Apple Podcasts/Spotify or listen below:

Transcript

Rena Sherbill: Welcome back, everybody, today I am happy to have on Steve Cress, as I'm sure you are all happy to hear from him.

The market is about to close. Micron (MU) is about to report.

It's a company that Steve has talked about. It's been an Alpha Pick for quite some time, as we discuss on YouTube's very own Wall Street Breakfast with Steve Cress.

Steve, what are you looking at when you're looking at earnings?

Steve Cress: Well, first thanks for having me today. Appreciate it.

And absolutely Micron is amongst one of the largest stocks that investors are focusing on. And today they report results, should be roughly within an hour. It's almost 3:30 Eastern Standard Time and just outside of New York. So Micron will be reporting shortly.

We have a really great tool at Seeking Alpha, an earnings calendar. And you simply find that by if you're on the main dashboard, you go to the market data page. And then within market data, you can click on earnings calendar. We have a bunch of other tables that are under market data from sectors, heat maps, growth versus value, market cap, commodities, bonds.

But one of the key ones is the earnings calendar. And you can bring it up by a monthly view or weekly view. And as you can see today, Wednesday, September 30th, Micron is reporting and if you scroll down below, you'll see there's Micron, Jabil (JBL), FactSet Research (FDS), Conagra (CAG).

But we're most interested in Micron because that is a big name. It is a quant name. We've had a strong buy on it for a long time. And the market is expecting good things out of it.

Fortunately, Micron had a really good beat last time on both a normalized and GAAP basis. There were eight beats and zero misses. So for the upcoming quarter on a normalized EPS basis, we're looking for $31.82. That's consensus. And consensus gap is $31.94. Literally a thousand percent growth.

In the last 90 days coming into this quarter, 12 analysts revised their estimates up, and two revised it down. For the full year, for the fiscal year, 13 analysts revised their estimates up. And only one revised it down. That's a C plus grade. So you would think 13 up one down is better than a C plus. It actually shows you what the sector median is. So 86% are analysts are expecting that the sector has good beats.

Where you can see for Micron, it's 92%. So that number is higher by about 7.84%. So that to me is pretty positive. Overall, that's only beause there are other companies where you have 20 analysts that have revised their estimates up and zero have revised it down.

But 13 to 1 is still really good in my book. Annual EPS estimates for August 2026 and August 2027, as well as revenue. And you could just take a look at the quarters too and look how many times they've beaten. They've beaten every time since the third quarter of 2023. So their business is just doing fantastic.

You can see how much of every time the beat gets a little bit better. And recently it's just been blown out of the water. I mean third quarter a year ago they came in at 32 cents. Then you could see if you look at the second quarter from a year ago, it came in at $1.56. The beat was by 14 cents.

So looking at the second quarter of this year, it went from a dollar fifty-six to twelve dollars and twenty cents. So this is just extreme in terms of how fast their EPS it's growing.

So what would I expect today? Well, let's go to our stock page. And you can see we have the quant with a strong buy. You can see all the key investment characteristics that we look at, valuation growth, profitability and momentum, all A pluses.

The only one that's a little bit lower is the analyst revisions. But as I said, that's 13 up, one down. I'll take that any day. The stock still looks really great from a fundamental perspective. I will say it is still significantly off its 52-week high.

So currently trading at $1,069. We could see that back in June, the stock was trading at around it looks like it's closer to about twelve hundred dollars. So that 52 week range is very wide at a low 165 and a high of 1255.

So it's still closer to the high side, but still significantly off its June highs. And for all intents and purposes, they're gonna have another quarter of record revenue and record earnings.

Rena Sherbill: Care to weigh in on what you imagine the market to look like after hours and then or maybe you know, pre-market and then maybe at open tomorrow. Just kind of your sense of like what the how the sector may move in conjunction with Micron.

Again, nobody has a crystal ball, even you, but based on your rich history in the markets.

Steve Cress: What we're looking at right now is we can see crude oil is up a little bit. And if we're really just looking one day out, Micron (MU) reports today, they could have record revenue and record earnings, and it's quite possible the stock can still come down.

Case in point when NVIDIA (NVDA) reported they had record revenue, record earnings, beat expectations, and the stock still came down that day.

So we're clearly in a market where sentiment gets a heavier weight than fundamentals and if sentiment is negative or anxiety is high, even on a day because of perhaps geopolitical events or movements in interest rates, the 10-year treasury or the 30-year treasury or economic data points that can come out.

All of it could impact and there'll probably be economic data points tomorrow that could impact the market.

But right now we're looking at gold a little bit higher.

And if we look at treasuries, we could see the 10-year treasury is a little bit higher too. So the market may not feel comfortable with that going into tomorrow.

It will look to Micron Technology to see what earnings are like.

My guess is with the 10-year treasury up a little bit now, and with Brent up 2% now, the market is actually up slightly on the day.

But what I'd like to do is actually show you the market data. And if we jump into sectors. So I've moved from the earnings calendar to sectors, and I'm just going to look at today and sort of by today's performance. You can actually see technology is the best performing sector with communication services right behind it.

Then the underperformers are consumer staples and healthcare, which traditionally are really safe haven sectors.

So the safe haven sectors aren't trading well today. A little bit more focused on the risk-on sectors. With having said that, within the risk-on sectors, it could be a little bit granular.

So, what I'm to do is look at themes and subsectors. And I'm going to go down to technology so I could see how technology is playing out today. So, overall, technology is the best performing sector. And within it, we see cybersecurity and semiconductors are outperforming within technology. The underperformers are blockchain, smartphones, and social media. Now that's just on the day.

So I'd say the market is fairly positive right now on the semiconductors. So perhaps if we do have a good number and we don't have an economic data point tomorrow that scares everybody, we could be in good shape if Micron beats today.

And going into the closing hours with less than a half hour to go, we can see Micron's up slightly. I think most people are expecting a beat. So it's gonna have to be a pretty good beat, I think, in order to move the needle.

Micron (MU +1.05%) is set to report earnings after hours on Wednesday, and all of Wall Street will be watching.

As one of the three major memory chipmakers, along with Samsung and SK Hynix, Micron has been one of the best-performing stocks over the last year, benefiting from a memory shortage that has led to prices skyrocketing.

In its June earnings report, revenue jumped 346% to $41.5 billion, and it reported a net profit margin of 80.4%, a level virtually unheard of for any company, underscoring how high memory prices have gotten. Net income in the quarter jumped from $1.89 billion to $28.2 billion.

Looking ahead to the fourth-quarter report due out Wednesday, analysts expect revenue to jump 354% to $51.4 billion, and for adjusted earnings per share to jump from $3.03 to $31.71.

Based on that forecast, Micron now trades at less than 9 times run-rate earnings per share. Its forward P/E based on expected fiscal 2027 earnings is less than 7. The surging profits make Micron a good candidate for accelerated share buybacks, but the CHIPS Act restricts its buybacks until Dec. 9

Micron now trades above $1,000 a share, and the jump in price and profits makes the memory chip giant a natural fit for a stock split, which it has not done since 2000.

Images

Why Micron is a good bet to do a stock splitWith Micron now trading at $1,067 per share as of this writing, it has one of the highest share prices in the S&P 500.

Most companies don't have share prices above $1,000 because they split their stocks when the share price gets that high. Nvidia, for example, did a 10-for-1 split in 2024 when its share price was around $1,200.

With Micron stock now trading around that level and the stock experiencing a similar earnings boom, a stock split makes sense.

Enacting a stock split doesn't change the fundamentals of the stock. It just cuts the shareholder pie into more pieces. However, it does have some real impacts. First, it makes individual shares easier to buy, which could encourage retail investors or employees to make small-dollar purchases of the stock. Similarly, it makes it easier to trade options on the stock, since options contracts are based on 100 shares, thereby increasing liquidity.

Finally, a stock split shows confidence from management that the share price can keep going higher. They tend to act as milestones, resetting the stock price so that it can rise again. There's also evidence that stocks tend to outperform over the 12 months after a stock split, according to research from Bank of America. That may reflect the timing of the move, as management decides when to split its stock, and it's likely to do so when it's confident the stock can keep going up. Stock splits also tend to be received well by shareholders.

Premium Feature

Moneyball Superscore

91/100

Today's Change

(

1.05

%) $

11.10

Current Price

$

1,065.08

Investors are due for a rewardWith the stock up more than 1,000% over the last year and a half, investors are due for an increase in capital returns or a stock split.

Management is likely to accelerate share buybacks after the Dec. 9 rule change, but a dividend hike would also make sense as well, as its yield has fallen to just 0.05%. Nvidia, facing a similar situation, recently raised its dividend by 25x, and it just announced a $150 billion share buyback program.

Still, with Micron shares now above $1,000 and profits soaring, a stock split makes the most sense. Doing so would reward investors, reset the stock price, and make it more accessible. There's a good chance Micron splits its stock before the end of the year, and the stock could soar if it does.

Micron reports tomorrow, and a guidance miss could spark a selloff that has nothing to do with the company's actual earnings power. Here is what to watch before reacting.

This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.

Micron (NASDAQ:MU | MU Price Prediction) reports fiscal fourth-quarter results tomorrow after the close. Shares are up 273.63% year to date, so the fiscal Q1 outlook will move the stock more than the quarter itself.

Record Numbers Meet a Restless Stock Last quarter, revenue reached $41.46 billion, up 345.7% year over year. Non-GAAP EPS of $25.11 beat the $20.28 consensus, which made seven consecutive EPS beats. Gross margin hit a record 84.9%.

Management guided fiscal Q4 to $50.0 billion in revenue (plus or minus $1.0 billion), EPS of $31.00 and gross margin near 86%. Management also said the outlook reflects “a meaningful moderation in the rate of price increases.”

The stock’s reaction shows how high the bar sits. Shares jumped 15.74% on report day in June, then fell 32.39% over the next 30 days. They have climbed 14.24% over the past month to $1,065.71.

Consensus Calls for Another Record Quarter Metric Consensus Year-Ago YoY Growth FQ4 Normalized EPS $31.3542 $3.03 934.8% FQ4 Revenue $50.97 billion $11.32 billion 350.5% FY2026 EPS $73.4591 $8.29 786.1% FY2026 Revenue $129.86 billion $37.38 billion 247.4% Check the Calendar Before Judging the Guide Fiscal Q4 has 14 weeks instead of the normal 13. Fiscal Q1 goes back to 13, so the sequential guide can look softer even if the weekly revenue run rate stays strong. On a 13-week basis, the $50 billion midpoint works out to roughly $46.43 billion.

Analysts already model fiscal Q1 revenue of $56.85 billion and EPS of $34.9476. If the guide comes in below those numbers, I’d account for the missing week before responding.

Beyond the calendar, I’m watching three things:

New SCAs: Micron has signed 16 Strategic Customer Agreements. Fourteen of them carry about $100 billion of revenue at floor prices, and management expected about $10 billion in customer deposits this quarter. Each new deal adds visibility. HBM4 share: Share holding around 20% would show Micron keeping pace in AI accelerators. Management targets HBM share close to its DRAM share, and HBM4 12-high is ramping twice as fast as HBM3E 12-high. Supply timing: Management expects tightness beyond 2027 and only gradual supply improvement in 2028. Idaho’s ID2 fab targets first wafer output in late-calendar 2028. The longer meaningful new supply stays pushed into 2028, the longer pricing power holds up. A Softer Guide Could Mask Stronger Earnings Power Micron trades at 24x trailing earnings and 7x forward earnings. It has 44 buy ratings and an average target of $1,520.76. Polymarket traders put the odds of an EPS beat at 0.96.

A beat rarely ensures a rally. Micron topped estimates in each of its last 8 reports, but on average the stock fell 3.44% in the week that followed.

If SCAs keep adding up and supply stays tight into 2028, a lower Q1 guide caused by the shorter quarter tells you little about where earnings are headed.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Computer-memory company Netlist (NLST.PK) said on Tuesday that it has filed ​a new complaint at a U.S. trade tribunal ‌seeking to block imports of Micron (MU.O) memory chips used in Google (GOOGL.O), Nvidia (NVDA.O) and Broadcom (AVGO.O) products for AI computing.

Netlist said in the complaint, first ​filed under seal at the U.S. International Trade ​Commission on Friday, that Micron's chips and the tech ⁠giants' products infringe two of its patents covering "high bandwidth ​memory" technology

The company asked the tribunal to bar imports of ​Micron dynamic random access memory (DRAM) devices and Google, Nvidia and Broadcom graphics processing units, servers and other products that incorporate Micron's infringing ​technology

Micron declined to comment on the complaint

Spokespeople for Google, ​Nvidia and Broadcom did not immediately respond to requests for comment on ‌Tuesday

"Netlist ⁠has spent decades developing advanced memory technologies now used in rapidly expanding AI infrastructure," Netlist CEO C.K. Hong said in a statement. "This action reflects our continued commitment to protecting ​our foundational technologies ​from unauthorized ⁠use."

Netlist won a $445 million patent infringement verdict against Micron in Marshall, Texas federal court in ​2024

Netlist filed another ITC complaint against Micron in ​August ⁠over memory chips used in Super Micro Computer, Hewlett Packard Enterprise and Lenovo products

Netlist settled a separate memory-patent dispute with Samsung ⁠in ​August after winning $421 million in patent ​verdicts against the Korean tech giant in the same Texas court

Micron Technology (MU -2.62%) has a major event coming up that could shift market sentiment toward its stock. On Sept. 30, it will deliver its fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results, and what it says could create a new paradigm for the stock.

The market has long recognized that Micron was a cyclical company. The state of the memory chip business fluctuates significantly as demand rises and falls, and as producers' moves to add capacity during tighter markets lead to oversupply conditions later. However, there has never been a demand wave as large as the one currently underway -- thanks to the AI build-out, all the available production capacity for every chipmaker involved in the memory space has been presold.

As Wednesday's announcement will be Micron's fiscal 2026 Q4, it may issue guidance for fiscal 2027 that could shock the market and send the stock price soaring. 

Image source: The Motley Fool.

The AI build-out is expected to last for many years Historically, waves of elevated memory chip demand come along every so often, and they usually only last for a few years. The one being driven by the AI build-out is different.

What we're experiencing right now is the greatest demand for computing power humanity has ever seen, and the types of processors being deployed require an incredible amount of memory to operate efficiently -- particularly high-bandwidth memory (HBM). Currently, the available supply isn't even close to meeting demand, although all three major providers, including Micron, are building new foundries to boost production capacity.

Premium Feature

Moneyball Superscore

91/100

Today's Change

(

-2.62

%) $

-28.30

Current Price

$

1,053.98

While some of these projects are slated to finish over the next few years, there will be questions about whether this is enough, as data center build-outs are only expected to continue to ramp up for at least the next four years.

Nvidia (NVDA +1.68%) estimates that this year, the big five AI hyperscalers will spend nearly $800 billion on data center build-outs. In 2027, they estimate that figure will rise to $1.3 trillion. Ultimately, Nvidia predicts that global data center capital expenditures will rise to between $3 trillion and $4 trillion in 2030. That means demand will remain elevated for memory chips too, as Micron's chips go into Nvidia's GPUs, among other computing units.

The problem is that the market isn't pricing Micron stock as if it expects this spending trend to last. Right now, Micron trades for a mere 6.8 times fiscal 2027 earnings projections.

MU PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts.

If this demand wave lasts beyond next year, Micron stock could deliver incredible returns. And considering that one of the most well-connected businesses in the AI build-out has consistently told investors that there are still several more strong years ahead, I think Micron is a no-brainer buy at these prices. Investors may want to get into the stock before Sept. 30, because come Oct. 1, the market could start to find a new paradigm for valuing Micron.

The technology sector has a relatively light earnings calendar this week, but several closely watched companies are set to report, led by memory chip leader Micron Technology (MU - Free Report) ).

Investors will also be watching results from electronics manufacturer Jabil (JBL - Free Report) ) and consulting and technology-services giant Accenture (ACN - Free Report) ), particularly for updates on AI-related demand and enterprise technology spending.

Micron Technology – MUZacks Rank #3 (Hold)Micron will report results for its fiscal fourth-quarter after the market closes on Wednesday, Sept. 30, with surging demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used in AI infrastructure remaining the central story.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate calls for Q4 earnings of $31.45 per share, representing a staggering 938% increase from EPS of $3.03 in the prior-year quarter. This comes as Q4 sales are projected to soar nearly 350% to $50.86 billion, compared with $11.32 billion a year ago.

Along with the headline results, investors will closely watch Micron's outlook for DRAM and NAND pricing, HBM demand, and gross margins.

Jabil – JBLZacks Rank #3 (Hold)As one of the world’s largest electronics manufacturing services providers, Jabil is scheduled to report results for its fiscal fourth-quarter before Wednesday's opening bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate calls for Q4 EPS of $4.05, up 23% from the prior-year period, on revenue of $9.61 billion, which would represent more than 16% growth.

Investors will likely focus on Jabil's exposure to cloud and data-center infrastructure as AI-related hardware demand continues to expand.

Accenture – ACNZacks Rank #3 (Hold)Rounding out the week's notable tech reports, Accenture will announce its fiscal Q4 results before the market opens Thursday, Oct. 1.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate calls for Q4 earnings of $3.19 per share, up 5% YoY, while quarterly revenue is projected to rise more than 2% to $18.01 billion.

Beyond the headline numbers, Accenture's results should provide another useful gauge of enterprise technology spending and demand for AI-related consulting and implementation services.

Bottom LineMicron will provide the headline technology report to watch this week, with explosive AI-driven memory demand setting a particularly high bar for its fiscal fourth-quarter results.

That said, Jabil and Accenture should provide additional insight into AI infrastructure spending and broader enterprise technology demand heading into the final months of 2026.

Micron Technology MU stock fell 4% on Thursday as investors weighed rising US Treasury yields and higher crude oil prices ahead of the memory chipmaker’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report on Sept. 30.

Despite the decline, Baird raised its price target on Micron to $1,520 from $1,280 while reiterating its outperform rating. The new target implies about 40% upside from Friday’s close.

Baird analyst Tristan Gerra said the firm was “incrementally positive on Micron near- and medium term” because of rising demand for agentic artificial intelligence, slower expected DRAM supply growth across the industry in 2027 and a higher-margin outlook for high-bandwidth memory next year.

Micron shares have risen sharply in 2026 alongside other memory stocks, supported in part by a shortage of memory chips.

The stock is up 279% this year and reached an intraday record of $1,255 on June 25.

Micron is benefiting from growing demand for high-performance memory as artificial intelligence adoption increases.

AI systems process large amounts of data and require memory with greater capacity and bandwidth, supporting demand for DRAM in AI servers and other high-performance computing systems.

DRAM is expected to be Micron’s biggest growth engine in the fourth quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate puts DRAM revenue at $38.26 billion, representing a 325.8% increase from the year-ago quarter.

The expected growth comes alongside improving conditions in the broader memory market.

The industry had previously faced excess supply, weak pricing, and elevated inventories, but those conditions have improved, resulting in a healthier balance between supply and demand.

The combination of stronger AI demand and improved pricing conditions is expected to support DRAM revenue and profitability in the quarter.

High-bandwidth memory has become another important part of Micron’s AI growth outlook.

AI accelerators use HBM to provide the high memory bandwidth required for increasingly complex workloads.

Micron is mass-producing HBM for NVIDIA’s next-generation AI chips, giving the company exposure to growing demand for AI infrastructure.

HBM supply remains relatively tight, while demand from AI data centres continues to increase.

Micron has also highlighted strong demand for HBM4.

Its HBM4 12-high ramp is progressing faster than the earlier HBM3E 12-high ramp, potentially increasing HBM’s contribution to revenue and profitability over time.

Baird’s Gerra also pointed to a higher margin profile for HBM next year as one of the factors supporting the firm’s positive view of Micron.

Micron’s relationships with major semiconductor companies provide exposure to several AI platforms.

NVIDIA has selected Micron as a major HBM supplier for its Blackwell GPUs and Vera Rubin AI platform.

Micron also supplies HBM3E products for Advanced Micro Devices’ Instinct MI350 AI accelerators.

The company is also working with Marvell Technology on advanced memory solutions for AI applications.

Marvell’s focus on custom AI silicon provides another potential avenue for Micron to participate in the expansion of AI infrastructure.

Micron’s fiscal fourth-quarter results are due Wednesday.

LSEG consensus expects earnings to rise 939% year over year. Analysts remain broadly positive, with 46 of 49 analysts tracked by LSEG rating the stock a buy or strong buy.

The average analyst price target implies about 34% upside.

SummaryMicron (MU) is benefiting from a severe industry supply bottleneck in HBM4 and DRAM, driving exceptional pricing power and margin expansion.MU's gross margin surged to 84% and is guided to 86%, with revenue and EPS growth driven primarily by price, not volume.Fiscal Q4 2026 will be a 14-week quarter; headline growth may mislead, but underlying demand and pricing remain robust.Valuation remains attractive at a forward PE of 14.8x; the bull case hinges on EPS growth, with a fair FY27 price target of $1,280 at 8x EPS.Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at iREIT®+HOYA Capital. Learn More » mesh cube/iStock via Getty Images

Introduction Until a little more than a year ago, the end of September was a dull period for the market. In fact, September was usually a red month, and it didn't spark a lot of enthusiasm as the earnings season was rapidly ending, with no

8.45K Followers

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of MU either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Key Takeaways Micron will report earnings on Wednesday after the market close.Wall Street expects Micron earnings to soar 937.95%!Investors will closely monitor management's commentary on pricing power. Micron Earnings LoomThis week, Micron ((MU - Free Report) ), one of the hottest companies on Wall Street, will report earnings. The Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock will report Q4 fiscal 2026 financial results after the market close on Wednesday, September 30th. Over the past few years, Micron has become one of the world’s leading providers of semiconductor memory solutions. The company is benefiting from AI-driven demand for memory and storage, tighter DRAM and NAND supply, and a richer mix of HBM, data center SSD, and high-capacity products. Micron shares have gained a scorching-hot return of 560% over the past year as the stock has become a favorite among growth-oriented technology investors.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Micron: What Does Wall Street Expect?Micron’s growth trajectory has been nothing short of spectacular. In Q3, Micron reported a $28.24 billion profit, making it one of the most profitable companies on Wall Street. For context, Micron generated just $25 billion in profit in all of 2024.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Believe it or not, Wall Street analysts expect Micron’s growth trajectory to continue this quarter. Zacks Consensus Estimates suggest revenue will grow 349.48% while earnings per share will skyrocket 937.95% year over year.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Micron: A Consistent Earnings WinnerAlthough analyst expectations have risen given the stock’s performance, the company has consistently beaten Wall Street expectations. In fact, Micron has beaten Zacks Consensus Analyst Estimates for 13 consecutive quarters.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Meanwhile, Micron has surpassed Wall Street’s expectations by a healthy 21.06% on average over the past four quarters.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Micron: What to Expect After EarningsThe options market is currently implying a post-EPS announcement move of plus or minus 8-9.9% or $87 to $108 based on the current share price. Meanwhile, although Micron’s stock performance has been incredible, most of the move has come from non-earnings days. Over the past 14 quarters, Micron shares closed higher the day after earnings 6 times and lower 8 times, reflecting a coin-flip-like tendency.

Micron: What to Look ForWall Street investors will be curious whether Micron can maintain its strong pricing power. Investors will also want to hear the latest guidance on AI data center deployments.

Micron Technical ViewMicron shares are currently building the right side of a 3-month technical base. Technicians will watch the 50-day moving average (~$941) on the downside and the previous all-time high of $1,255 on the upside.

Image Source: TradingView

Bottom Line

As Micron prepares to report Q4 earnings, the semiconductor giant is riding high on AI-driven demand and a tight memory supply. Micron will try to extend its remarkable streak of beating Wall Street estimates.

When Micron Technology (MU +0.16%) issued its fiscal fourth-quarter outlook in late June, one number stood out even in a report full of them: a gross margin of about 86%, on revenue of $50 billion, plus or minus $1 billion. Put another way, management expects to spend only about 14 cents of each sales dollar making the chips it sells -- in an industry where margins have always swung violently with memory prices.

The guided quarter is already over. Micron's fiscal fourth quarter of 2026 ended in early September, and the company reports the results on Wednesday, Sept. 30, after the market closes.

How long can a memory maker keep a margin like that? The company's own reported history offers a blunt answer.

Image source: Micron.

The old ceiling was 61%Capturing how quickly this boom has escalated, Micron's fiscal 2026 third quarter (ended May 28) produced a gross margin of 84.6%, up from 74.4% the quarter before and 37.7% a year earlier. The company's latest quarterly filing credits the surge to demand from artificial intelligence data centers, which it says is growing faster than the industry can add supply. The higher prices have lifted profitability across its whole portfolio.

For scale, the fiscal 2018 memory boom (the company called it a record year) topped out at a 61% gross margin in its final quarter. The upcycle after that one peaked at 47.3% in the quarter ended in early September 2021.

In other words, Micron's best quarters across two prior booms never came within 20 percentage points of where the business sits today. After 10 years covering tech stocks, I haven't seen anything like it.

The rest of the industry has the same record. Rival SK Hynix (SKHY +2.79%) closed 2018 with record annual results, including a 52% operating margin. And a year later, its operating profit had fallen 87%.

Every prior peak faded fastThe 61% quarter was fiscal 2018's last. Three quarters later, Micron's gross margin was 38.2%. A quarter after that, it was 28.6% -- less than half the peak, about a year after it was set. And the margin didn't recover once the slide stopped. Two years after the peak, it stood at 34.1%.

The next boom ended even harder. From its 47.3% peak, the margin was still holding at 47.2% two quarters later. And four quarters after that, it was negative 32.7%.

Both times, once the slide began, the margin gave up more than 30 percentage points within about a year. This is the history an 86% guide is up against.

Can contract floors change the pattern?Notably, management isn't calling for prices to keep climbing at the recent pace. The guided margin of about 86% sits little more than a point above fiscal Q3's 84.6% -- and that quarter had jumped 10 points from the one before.

"Our fiscal Q4 gross margin outlook reflects a meaningful moderation in the rate of price increases," chief financial officer Mark Murphy said in his prepared remarks for the company's June earnings call.

What's different this time, Micron argues, is the contracts. The company has signed 16 customer agreements running three to five years. Its quarterly filing describes them as take-or-pay deals, most with either fixed pricing or contractual price floors and ceilings.

Even more, CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said in the same prepared remarks that the floor prices alone enable a gross margin "well above our peak quarterly margins in any past cycle."

Demand may stay strong for a while, too. Mehrotra told analysts he expects industry supply to improve only gradually in 2028. The contracts are new, though. And no downturn has tested the floors yet.

Premium Feature

Moneyball Superscore

91/100

Today's Change

(

0.16

%) $

1.75

Current Price

$

1,082.28

The market seems to have noticed. Analysts' consensus estimates point to about $158 in earnings per share for fiscal 2027, which started in early September.

At about $1,070 per share as of this writing, that comes to about 7 times forward earnings. Arguably, it's the kind of multiple investors reserve for earnings they don't expect to last.

Ultimately, I'd take management at its word in both directions. The price surge that built this margin is slowing, and the floors under the next downturn are stronger than anything Micron has had before. But I'd value the company as if 86% is this cycle's peak, not its new normal. Micron has never held a margin peak for long, and I wouldn't plan on this one being different.

The Wall Street analyst who sparked a breakout rally in Micron (MU +0.81%) stock back in May is back with an update.

UBS's Timothy Arcuri reiterated his buy rating and price target of $1,625 in a note this week, ahead of the memory-chip maker's fourth-quarter earnings report on Sept. 30.

Micron shares have skyrocketed over the last year as the company has been one of the biggest winners in the memory chip shortage sparked by the AI boom. Its revenue is growing by triple digits, and its operating margins have expanded to 80%, a rare feat for any company and a sign of how high memory prices have gone.

However, the stock has been volatile in recent months, as investors are unsure how long the boom will last. Historically, memory is highly cyclical. Micron was losing billions of dollars a year as recently as 2023, and at some point, prices will come down as more supply comes online and demand growth eases, though that is still years away.

Image source: Micron.

The way UBS sees itArcuri clearly sees more upside to Micron. In a recent commentary, he noted that the company's fundamentals continue to improve, with the supply-and-demand gap widening.

That could put Micron in position for another massive beat when it reports earnings next week. The analyst consensus currently calls for fourth-quarter revenue to jump 352% to $51.2 billion, and for adjusted earnings per share to surge from $3.03 to $31.56. In its last three earnings reports, Micron has beaten EPS estimates by 20% or more, a sign that it could easily clear the consensus bar again.

In addition to the favorable supply-demand dynamics, Arcuri sees a tailwind emerging from potential share buybacks since restrictions on buybacks from the CHIPS Act funding the company received are set to expire on Dec. 9.

Buybacks could be an easy way for Micron to generate shareholder value, as the stock is cheap based on forward earnings, currently trading at less than 7 times fiscal 2027 expected EPS. Through the first three quarters of the year, the company has repurchased just $1.4 billion in common stock, even as its cash flow has lagged profits due to the timing of receivables and delays in collecting cash from its customers. Total shares outstanding are up slightly over the last year, reflecting modest share-based compensation.

Arcuri suggested the company could buy back $20 billion in stock each quarter and increase that to $50 billion a quarter a year from now. That target seems reasonable considering the company will bring in more than $30 billion in net income in the fourth quarter.

After paying off $9.4 billion in debt this year, the company has just $5.7 billion in debt. A dividend hike is another possibility to reward shareholders, but increased buybacks make more sense at the current valuation.

Micron just began construction on a $100 billion facility in upstate New York, but that is a 20-year project that will be funded primarily from its balance sheet with some help from grants, tax credits, and state and local incentives.

Finally, Arcuri was sagacious about the peak of the cycle, predicting that memory prices would start to fall in the second half of 2028, but said that profits would still be higher than current levels due to share buybacks and the strategic pricing agreements the company has forged to lock in pricing over the next five years.

Premium Feature

Moneyball Superscore

92/100

Today's Change

(

0.81

%) $

8.65

Current Price

$

1,080.53

Can Micron get to $1,625?When Arcuri first gave his $1,625 price target in May, the stock jumped 19% in a day and climbed more than 40% over the next two weeks.

These days, the $1,625 price target is more pedestrian and closer than the consensus around $1,500.

However, price targets don't make a stock go higher. Micron will have to continue to deliver strong results and show investors that this boom has more durability than just a single cycle. Management commentary on 2028 will be especially important in next Wednesday's earnings report, but Arcuri's thesis seems reasonable. Micron has wisely shifted to longer-term contracts with its customers, and buybacks should help lock in gains from the memory shortage windfall.

If Micron follows through on expectations and the memory market remains tight, $1,625 is within reach over the next year.

Key Takeaways Micron generated $25.4B in operating cash flow and a record $18.3B in adjusted free cash flow in Q3'26.Micron's Q3'26 revenues surged 346% year over year to $41.46B, while non-GAAP EPS climbed to $25.11.In the first three quarters, MU returned about $1.09B to shareholders while investing $19.6B in capex. Micron Technology, Inc. (MU - Free Report) is generating cash at an impressive pace as strong AI-driven memory demand lifts revenues and margins. This growing financial strength gives the company more flexibility to invest in capacity while also returning more capital to shareholders.

In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, Micron generated $25.4 billion in operating cash flow, more than double the $11.9 billion produced in the previous quarter and nearly 5.5 times the $4.6 billion generated in the year-ago quarter. Adjusted free cash flow reached a record $18.3 billion compared with $6.9 billion in the second quarter.

The improvement was supported by strong operating performance. Third-quarter revenues jumped 346% year over year to $41.46 billion, while non-GAAP EPS rose to $25.11 from $1.91 a year earlier. Micron also ended the third quarter with $30.2 billion in cash, marketable investments and restricted cash.

Micron has already increased shareholder returns. In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, the board of directors approved a 30% increase in the quarterly dividend to 15 cents per share. In the first three quarters of fiscal 2026, the company returned approximately $1.09 billion through share buybacks and dividend payments.

Micron is also balancing returns with heavy investment needs. It spent $19.6 billion on capital expenditures in the first three quarters of fiscal 2026, as it expands capacity for AI memory. With cash generation rising sharply, MU has greater financial flexibility. If strong cash flows persist, Micron could have more room for dividends, buybacks and debt reduction while continuing to fund its AI-focused expansion.

SK hynix and Sandisk: Where Do Micron’s Rivals Stand?SK hynix (SKHY - Free Report) and Sandisk Corporation (SNDK - Free Report) are also benefiting from strong AI memory demand and rising cash generation.

SK hynix reported 79.32 trillion won in second-quarter 2026 revenues, up 257% year over year, while operating profit jumped 557% to 60.54 trillion won. Cash and cash equivalents reached 88 trillion won, giving the company greater flexibility. In August, SK hynix announced a 40 trillion won share repurchase and cancellation and raised its shareholder-return target to more than 50% of cumulative free cash flow for 2025-2027.

Sandisk is also building a stronger shareholder-return story. Its fiscal 2026 revenues rose 175% to $20.25 billion, while operating cash flow surged to $11.67 billion from just $84 million a year earlier. The company also added $14 billion to its share repurchase authorization, taking total remaining authorization to $15.5 billion. In fiscal 2026, Sandisk repurchased shares worth $4.52 billion.

Micron’s Price Performance, Valuation and EstimatesShares of Micron have surged around 275.5% year to date compared with the Zacks Computer and Technology sector’s return of 23.4%.

Micron Technology YTD Price Return Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation standpoint, MU trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 6.68, significantly lower than the sector’s average of 21.45.

Micron Technology 12-Month Forward P/E Ratio
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Micron’s fiscal 2026 and 2027 earnings implies a year-over-year increase of 791.6% and 114.4%, respectively. Bottom-line estimates for fiscal 2026 and 2027 have been revised upward over the past seven days.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Micron currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Former hedge fund manager Martin Shkreli says he is short Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MU), just two months after declaring, "I like Micron right now," as the AI-driven memory shortage sent prices and profits soaring.

Micron has surged roughly 280% this year as tight memory supplies have driven prices higher. Shkreli is now betting against the durability of that boom as memory manufacturers add capacity and Chinese producer CXMT ramps advanced DRAM production.

Shkreli Flips on MicronIn July, Shkreli estimated Micron could generate roughly $200 billion in earnings through 2027 and said there was "no reason to not like it."

Even then, he warned that much of Micron’s business remained commodity DRAM and that additional Chinese supply could eventually challenge the shortage.

His position is different now. In his latest livestream, Shkreli said he is short Micron, partly as an offset to a desk that was "long everything."

However, he said a decline in memory prices now would be "extremely surprising," suggesting he does not think the cycle has turned yet.

But he was clear about the risk he is watching.

"If prices drop, it’s all over," Shkreli said. "Price is everything," he added, pointing to CXMT and other memory manufacturers adding capacity.

The rest of Shkreli’s desk is not uniformly bearish on memory. One trader is long roughly $1 million of SanDisk Corp. (NASDAQ:SNDK) against a much smaller Intel short. Shkreli called the SanDisk position a "momentum AI play," while separately saying semiconductor stocks broadly look expensive.

Polymarket traders put about a 32% chance on Micron touching $1,200 before September ends as of Wednesday, though the market has attracted only about $14,300 in trading.

Bulls See Tight Supply Until 2028The real disagreement between Shkreli and the bulls is timing.

Steve Neamtz, CEO of Yorkville America, told Benzinga last week that factories capable of materially easing the shortage may not reach full production until 2028 or 2029.

Producing high-bandwidth memory requires roughly three times the manufacturing capacity per gigabyte of conventional memory, Neamtz said, while major suppliers have already committed their 2026 HBM output.

Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra has similarly said supply should gradually improve in 2028 but that the company has no "line of sight" on when it will catch demand.

Neamtz acknowledged oversupply could eventually emerge if new capacity arrives as AI demand slows.

Micron reports fiscal fourth-quarter results after the close Sept. 30. Wall Street expects adjusted earnings of $31.33 per share, up from $3.03 a year earlier, according to Benzinga Pro.

Image: Shutterstock

Read Next

© 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

CXMT's denser mobile DRAM increases competition without establishing comparable yields, HBM capability or international customer acceptance. Summary

China is advancing in mobile memory before threatening Micron’s entire AI portfolio.

Micron Technology MU, the memory and storage chipmaker, faced a fresh challenge in mobile memory after China's CXMT announced mass production of its fifth-generation DRAM platform. Micron shares fell about 1.4% to $1,080.47 Wednesday morning.

CXMT says two new LPDDR5X chips each hold 24 gigabits, 50% more than its previous comparable products. It also claims the new process produces at least 50% more gross dies per wafer than its prior platform, using an 8-gigabit baseline. More potential output could make CXMT a tougher competitor on cost. But gross dies are a production measure; they do not tell investors how many usable chips leave the factory.

That distinction matters for Micron. CXMT's announcement points to more competition in mobile DRAM, but it does not show the customer volumes or yields needed to measure the threat. It also does not establish a rival to Micron's high-bandwidth memory for AI systems; Micron said it began volume shipments of HBM4 earlier this year. Meanwhile, the picture puts Micron's share price 67.17% above its $646.32 GF Value. That gap leaves investors watching both sides of the story: how well Micron sells premium AI memory, and whether new conventional DRAM supply weighs on pricing.

Disclosures I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to buy any new positions in the stocks mentioned within the next 72 hours.

Click for the complete disclosure

Micron (MU +5.00%) is set to report fourth-quarter earnings after the bell on Sept. 30.

The memory chip giant has been one of the most closely watched stocks in the AI boom after soaring more than 1,000% as AI compute demand has sparked an unprecedented shortage of memory. As a result, revenue and profits for Micron and its peers have skyrocketed.

As one of the three leading memory chip companies in the world, along with Samsung and SK Hynix, Micron, the only U.S. stock in the group, has emerged as a popular choice for investors who want exposure to the bottleneck.

The stock is likely to swing big following its earnings report, as its results have been difficult for Wall Street to predict, and because the stock is historically volatile due to the cyclicality of memory.

Image source: Getty Images.

The 1 number to watch when Micron reports Q4 earningsInvestors will be tracking key numbers from the quarterly report, like revenue, adjusted earnings per share, and gross margin, and Micron's guidance will help determine where the stock goes next.

However, I think the most important factor in the report will be commentary on market dynamics, particularly for 2028. Yes, 2028, not the company's financial figures, will be the most important number to watch.

2028 is key because the company has already said that its high-bandwidth memory, specifically HBM3E and HBM4, are fully booked through calendar 2027. That means the company's results through the next calendar year are more or less predictable. What's still unknown is how supply and demand dynamics impact the company's performance in 2028 and beyond.

On the Q3 call in June, management said that HBM demand had begun to stretch into 2028, and it also expects new capacity to come online, meaning 2028 could be another bumper year if memory prices remain elevated.

The future outweighs the present for Micron Where Micron stock goes from here largely depends on investor perception of how long the AI-driven boom will last. That's what's unknown about the stock. Investors are already well aware that the company will make huge profits in fiscal 2027 and 2028, but the cycle will eventually peak. What matters is whether that's five years away or more, or whether it's just two or three years away.

Management commentary on 2028 will give investors the biggest hint about whether the peak of the cycle is getting pushed further out. If we hear a positive update on 2028 or more commentary on tight market dynamics, I think that will push the stock higher. Without that, a gain is less likely.

Premium Feature

Moneyball Superscore

92/100

Today's Change

(

5.00

%) $

52.20

Current Price

$

1,096.16

Micron is insulating itself from the cyclical downsideMicron has already taken steps to protect itself from the other side of the cycle. It has begun signing strategic customer agreements (SCA), most of which last five years. These agreements lock in a price range and are structured as take-or-pay agreements with minimum purchase commitments, protecting Micron from a potential bust in the cycle. The agreements it signed through the third quarter covered about 20% of DRAM volume and 33% of NAND volume, indicating it's protecting a significant share of its business.

While Micron is taking prudent steps with the current memory windfall, it remains bullish on long-term demand, pouring $100 billion into a new manufacturing facility in upstate New York, which is expected to begin producing chips in 2029 or 2030.

Overall, Micron is on solid footing heading into the report. The stock looks cheap relative to near-term earnings forecasts, and it has risen in recent days from a potential surge in CPU demand, driven by Meta Platforms' breakthrough launch of its Muse AI personal agent.

Given those factors, I think the stock is a buy heading into the report, but its commentary about 2028 could be the biggest determinant in where Micron stock goes after the earnings report and over the coming months.

Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) stock rose more than 6% on Tuesday as investors positioned ahead of its Sept. 30 earnings report and broader technology stocks strengthened.

The Nasdaq gained 0.40%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.16%.

• Micron Technology stock is among today’s top performers. What’s fueling MU momentum?

Micron Heads Into Earnings With Strong AI DemandMicron enters its fiscal fourth-quarter report with strong AI-memory demand supporting growth.

Analysts expect the company to report $50.62 billion in quarterly revenue and adjusted earnings of $31.30 per share on Sept. 30, according to estimates.

CNBC’s Jim Cramer recently said he would hold Micron ahead of earnings, pointing to its valuation and calling the stock "incredibly cheap."

CXMT Emerges As Longer-Term Memory ThreatChina’s CXMT plans to develop NAND technology after capturing 9.5% of global DRAM revenue, potentially adding another competitor for Micron.

However, CXMT’s plans for large-scale NAND production remain uncertain.

The near-term supply environment also remains tight, with TrendForce expecting NAND shortages to ease only in the second half of 2027.

Micron Carries Significant ETF ExposureMicron represents 8.78% of the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX), 8.86% of the Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXQ) and 8.87% of the State Street SPDR NYSE Technology ETF (NYSE:XNTK).

Significant inflows or outflows from these funds can translate into buying or selling of Micron shares.

MU Price ActionMicron Technology shares were trading higher by 6.33% at $1,080.75 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Photo: Shutterstock

Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs

© 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

To add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.

One of the biggest beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence boom has been Micron Technology (MU +1.59%). Among the "big three" global players that can produce advanced DRAM memory, Micron's financial profile has improved significantly, thanks to the insatiable memory appetite of AI systems. And as the AI era moves from the generative to the agentic phase, these demands seem only set to increase.

Of course, that has also been reflected in Micron's stock price, which has delivered a 1,300% total return over the past five years -- that's a fourteen-bagger.

After that big a run, is this high-flying stock still a buy? Micron reports its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on Sept. 30. Here's what to look out for.

Premium Feature

Moneyball Superscore

92/100

Today's Change

(

1.59

%) $

16.11

Current Price

$

1,031.91

Micron still trades at a low P/E Today, Micron currently trades at 22.9 times trailing earnings but just 6.6 times the earnings estimates for the upcoming fiscal year, which ends in August of 2027. The reason for the low forward P/E ratio is that Micron has traditionally been a highly cyclical business, and investors fear that next year's huge earnings estimates will mark a peak in this cycle.

There are a few reasons for this. First, memory cycles typically only last two years or so, and the monster up-cycle for memory really began about a year ago, making next year's earnings the culmination of the past two-year cycle. So, investors scarred by past memory cycles are wary of bidding Micron higher.

Micron and its major competitors have also invested heavily in new memory plants slated to come online in 2028, increasing supply. Micron, for its own part, has six new fab projects in development in addition to expansion plans at its current facilities. Its massive new Idaho fab will come online next year and begin producing DRAM wafers in 2028. Micron's main Korean competitors are also building new memory fabs, which will begin coming online in 2028 and 2029.

That incoming supply is one concern, especially if AI companies figure out a way to use less memory going forward. Already, it appears that Nvidia (NVDA +0.48%) has "down-spec'ed" the memory requirements for its upcoming Rubin systems to 4-hi high-bandwidth memory (HBM), down from the originally planned 8-hi or 12-hi. This is because HBM is becoming very expensive, and higher-stack sizes may become uneconomical for many workloads.

Massive supply, combined with potentially lower training memory requirements, could lead to oversupply.

Image source: Getty Images.

But there is also a bullish scenario Even if new-age AI systems "down-spec" their HBM to only 4-hi from 8-hi, that doesn't necessarily mean that the up-cycle is over. After all, memory is in an absolute shortage right now, with some industry experts believing growing demand is two to three times higher than supply, while others think it may be as much as 10 times higher.

Even 4-hi HBM also takes a lot of capital equipment, at least three times more than traditional DRAM, which in turn detracts from the supply of traditional DRAM bits. Therefore, it may still be hard for supply to catch up with demand, even with the new supply coming on in 2028 and 2029. On the last earnings call in June, Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra admitted that the company had no line of sight to when supply would catch up to demand. Other industry executives have said that shortages will last through 2030.

Many customers have now signed up for long-term, take-or-pay agreements, often lasting up to five years, with obligations to buy a specified amount of bits at price floors from Micron. That is also a big difference between today's environment and past cycles, when memory pricing could soar or crash in any given year.

What to watch for On the last earnings call, Micron's management noted that it was targeting locking in 50% of its revenue under these LTAs. As of last call, it had already secured roughly 20% of its DRAM bits and 33% of NAND bits under LTAs. So, investors should look for progress on that front. Similarly, look out for commentary on Nvidia's down-spec'ing to 4-hi HBM for its upcoming Rubin systems, and what Micron management says about how that may affect demand.

Finally, since Micron had taken CHIPS Act funding for its new U.S. fabs, it has been restricted from executing share repurchases. However, Micron will be able to buy back stock beginning on Dec. 9. Investors should look for commentary on any share repurchase plan to be executed on that date.

Micron is a hold, but a buy for those without exposure The memory business has traditionally been highly volatile, making it difficult to assess Micron's earnings growth in any given year. However, the presence of HBM for generative AI systems, as well as these new long-term take-or-pay agreements with customers, could extend this cycle much further. As such, there is a wide range of possibilities for Micron's earnings power over the next few years.

If Micron's earnings power reverts to its pre-2024 level, the stock could retreat significantly. However, there is also a good chance that this new, higher level of earnings power will be sustained for quite some time. If that's the case, then Micron could be significantly undervalued.

Investors already holding a position should continue to hold, and listen for positive or negative comments on the topics above on Sept. 30. However, those without a position should consider taking a small starter position, as the upside could still be substantial, even after the stock's multiear run.

A year ago, a $10,000 investment in Micron Technology (MU +3.92%), bought at the stock's Sept. 15, 2021, closing price of $73.82, was worth about $21,500.

That was a solid four-year result. Not only had the money more than doubled, but it had also outpaced the S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.17%), which rose about 47% over those four years and about 69% over the entire five.

Then came year five. Shares have risen from about $159 in September 2025 to about $975 as I write this, a more than sixfold move that brings the five-year total to about $130,000 -- about 13 times the initial stake. (That reflects price alone. Micron's modest dividend, started in 2021, would add a little more if reinvested.)

Gains that arrive that quickly typically have a particular cause, and Micron's does: the price of memory. I'd say the cause deserves as much focus as the payoff, because memory prices move in cycles -- and this stock went through both halves of one within the five years.

Image source: Micron.

A back-loaded five yearsThe five-year number masks how bumpy the ride was. One year into the holding period, in late September 2022, Micron's stock closed under $49. The $10,000 had dropped to about $6,600.

The business, of course, followed the stock lower. Memory prices were falling, and in fiscal 2023, Micron's revenue fell by about half, to $15.5 billion from fiscal 2022's $30.8 billion. The company lost $5.83 billion that year.

The rebound that followed took the investment back to about $21,500 by this time last year. Zooming out, almost the whole payoff was in the final 12 months.

Memory prices did most of the workWhat shifted was the price of memory, bid up by demand from artificial intelligence (AI) data centers. In its most recent quarterly filing, Micron said AI-driven growth has accelerated demand for memory and storage more quickly than the industry can increase supply.

Micron's quarterly revenue rose across fiscal 2026 -- $13.6 billion in the first quarter, $23.9 billion in the second, and $41.5 billion in the third, the quarter that ended May 28, 2026. The steps kept getting bigger, and the third-quarter figure was up 346% year over year. Net income totaled $28.2 billion for the quarter, which means Micron earned nearly five times as much in three months as it earned in all of fiscal 2021 ($5.9 billion), the fiscal year that ended not long before the $10,000 went in. And its non-GAAP (adjusted) gross margin reached 84.9%. Twelve months before that, it was 39%.

Very little of this came from selling more memory. In the same filing, Micron reported the quarter's DRAM sales increased 343% year over year, with average selling prices rising about 260% while shipment volumes grew a little over 20%. So the company sold a bit more memory at several times the price.

How long can earnings at this level last?Management maintains the boom has staying power. Along with the fiscal third-quarter results, Micron announced a set of multi-year Strategic Customer Agreements, deals under which big customers lock in memory supply for years to come. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said the company thinks the agreements "will significantly enhance the durability and predictability of Micron's strong financial performance."

The market, though, looks less persuaded. The stock currently trades at about 6 times what Micron is expected to earn in the fiscal year that began this month (fiscal 2027). That's the type of earnings multiple investors pay when they expect profits to decline. The September 2021 buyer, by contrast, paid about 9.5 times what Micron would later earn in fiscal 2022.

Notably, the stock itself already shows some of that skepticism, trading about 22% below its 52-week high of $1,255.

Premium Feature

Moneyball Superscore

92/100

Today's Change

(

3.92

%) $

38.30

Current Price

$

1,015.80

In my view, however, Micron's own history argues against forever. The last boom peaked in fiscal 2022, revenue fell by about half within a year, and the $5.83 billion loss came at the bottom.

Granted, the new agreements might make this cycle longer and flatter than the last one. But they have not been tested by falling prices yet.

If I owned the stock, I'd keep holding it. And a business earning at this rate isn't one I'd sell simply because memory is cyclical.

But most of that $130,000 came from a single exceptional year, and a buyer around $975 is, I think, risking overpaying.

Micron just delivered the most jaw-dropping quarter any US semiconductor company has posted this cycle, yet the stock is sliding and analysts are at war over what comes next. Where the smart money lands may surprise you.

This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.

Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU | MU Price Prediction) has become the most extraordinary story in semiconductors this year. Shares are up 512.68% over the past 12 months and 240.59% year to date, riding a memory super-cycle that most bulls did not price in until it was already unfolding.

Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Micron is $949.19, which sits just below the current quote of $971.48. That implies roughly 2.3% of downside, and our model rates the stock a hold with 90% confidence.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary Metric Value Current Price $971.48 24/7 Wall St. Price Target $949.19 Upside/Downside -2.3% Recommendation HOLD Confidence Level 90% Why We Could Be Wrong Before diving in, we should note that our 24/7 Wall St. price target sits just below where Micron trades today. This is one of the most divisive stocks in the market.

Real upside could come from HBM4 share gains at a lead AI accelerator customer, or from the 16 Strategic Customer Agreements pushing realized pricing well above the contractual floors. Consider our target one datapoint among many. A full bull case appears below.

A Memory Super-Cycle in Full Force Fiscal Q3 2026 was arguably the most impressive quarter any US semiconductor company has reported this cycle. Revenue reached $41.456 billion, growing 345.72% year over year and beating estimates by 17.6%. Non-GAAP EPS of $25.11 beat by 23.79%, GAAP gross margin expanded to 84.6%, and free cash flow hit $18.304 billion.

Management guided Q4 revenue to $50 billion and EPS to $31. Still, MU is down 5.48% over the past week as investors debate how much of this cycle is already priced in, a debate Barron’s flagged this week as competitive pressure builds on US memory supremacy.

Bull Case: A Path to $1,340+ Bulls have a very real path here. Micron has already shipped over $1 billion in HBM4 revenue, with the 12-high ramp tracking twice as fast as HBM3E. The 16 SCAs cover roughly 20% of DRAM and a third of NAND volume through 2030, with minimum cumulative revenue of approximately $100 billion and floor prices that generate margins “significantly above prior peak margins.”

Analyst consensus already sits at $1,513.11, and our own bull scenario points to $1,344.37 over 12 months if pricing holds and supply stays tight, a view MarketWatch echoed this week with a 70% upside call.

What Could Go Wrong The bear case is straightforward: memory is cyclical, and Micron just reported an 84.9% non-GAAP gross margin that no sane analyst models as durable. Q4 guidance already flags “a meaningful moderation in the rate of price increases.” Capex is running at approximately $27 billion for fiscal 2026, and any 2028 supply catch-up would compress margins hard.

Our bear scenario pegs downside at $706.12, a 23.79% drop. Bulls would fairly counter that SCA floor pricing and take-or-pay commitments materially blunt the classic memory downcycle for the first time in industry history.

How Micron Compares to Western Digital and Seagate Micron does not have a perfect US-listed pure-play memory peer, but the storage-infrastructure names offer the best available lens on AI-driven cyclical demand.

Western Digital (NASDAQ:WDC) just reported fiscal Q4 revenue of $3.747 billion, up 43.84% year over year, with non-GAAP EPS of $3.56 and gross margin of 54.4%. WDC’s growth is impressive but a fraction of Micron’s, which frames MU’s premium as earned.

Seagate Technology (NASDAQ:STX) posted fiscal Q4 revenue of $3.629 billion, up 48.49% year over year, with EPS of $5.71 and Q1 FY27 EPS guidance of $7.30. STX is riding the same hyperscaler AI storage build-out, but at a much smaller scale of expansion.

Set against peers growing 40% to 50%, Micron’s triple-digit revenue growth and 80%+ margins make our $949 target look reasonable rather than aggressive.

Micron Price Prediction 2026-2030 My verdict on Micron is hold, with 90% confidence in our 24/7 Wall St. price target of $949.19. The tipping factor is valuation math: at $971, the forward P/E anchor is already stretched, and Q4 guidance quietly warns that peak pricing is moderating.

A pullback toward $850, or evidence that HBM4 share is expanding beyond current customers, would materially strengthen the bull case. Conversely, margins normalizing faster than the SCA floor prices can protect would weaken it.

Year 24/7 Wall St. Price Target 2026 $949 2027 $1,023 2028 $1,062 2029 $1,085 2030 $1,117 These projections assume Micron continues executing on HBM roadmap milestones and that SCA floor pricing holds. Meaningful upside or downside could result from AI infrastructure capex trajectory and the timing of any 2028 supply catch-up. Memory is only one slice of that buildout, and we mapped seven other suppliers riding the same wave, from power to cooling to networking, in a free AI infrastructure report.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.