Trader otevřel na platformě Hyperliquid dlouhou pozici na bitcoin v hodnotě 97,87 milionu USD s pákou 40×. Marže ve výši 2,85 milionu USD by čelila likvidaci při poklesu ceny na 79 828 USD.
A trader engaged nearly 98 million dollars on a rise in bitcoin with a 40x leverage on Hyperliquid. At the time of the report published on October 18, a decrease of only 1.6% threatened to trigger the liquidation of this particularly risky position.
In brief
A trader bets nearly 98 million dollars on the rise of Bitcoin with a 40x leverage on Hyperliquid.
This position rests on only 2.85 million dollars of margin.
A 1.6% drop in bitcoin could trigger its liquidation, estimated at 79,828 dollars.
The high leverage exposes the trader to quick losses despite small market fluctuations.
The account already shows nearly 9.8 million dollars in cumulative losses over seven days.
A $98 million position supported by $2.85 million
The observed account controlled 1205.31 BTC through a perpetual contract. Its long position showed a notional value of 97.87 million dollars, with an average entry price of 81,913.80 dollars. The trader was therefore betting on a rise of bitcoin above this threshold.
The use of a 40x leverage explains the gap between the size of the bet and the capital actually mobilized. Here are the main data recorded on the account :
An exposure of 97.87 million dollars ;
About 2.85 million dollars deposited as margin ;
An effective leverage of 34.33 ;
An estimated liquidation price at 79,828 dollars ;
An unrealized loss of 866,467 dollars ;
Nearly 86,952 dollars already paid in financing fees.
The figure of 98 million therefore does not correspond to the personal amount the trader risks losing. It designates the total value of his exposure after applying leverage. The direct loss mainly rests on the margin employed, even if previous account operations can weigh on the overall balance.
At the time of observation, bitcoin was trading around 81,117 dollars on Bitstamp. Only 1,289 dollars separated its price from the liquidation level, about a 1.59% gap. However, the market has moved since this snapshot, and the position might have been reduced, reinforced, or closed.
40x leverage leaves almost no margin for error
A perpetual contract allows speculation on the price of an asset without an expiration date. With a long position, the trader gains if the BTC rises and loses if it declines. Leverage multiplies these variations relative to the capital engaged.
At 40 times the stake, a few points of adverse variation are enough to absorb most of the margin. The unrealized loss of 866,467 dollars already represented a negative return of 30.4% on the funds engaged. The account had no additional available margin at the time of the report.
The position used isolated margin mode. In this system, the collateral allocated to the bet remains separate from the rest of the portfolio. Liquidation therefore mainly threatens the amount reserved for this operation, rather than all assets potentially held on the account.
However, Hyperliquid does not rely solely on the last price shown by a spot platform. Its mechanism takes into account a reference price, margin level, and protocol-specific rules. The 79,828 dollar threshold was thus an estimate liable to change if the trader added collateral or reduced exposure.
The account had already lost $9.8 million in one week
Statistics published by Hyperbot show that the difficulties extended beyond this single position. Over seven days, the account showed a cumulative loss close to 9.78 million dollars and a maximum drawdown of 78.77% from its previous peak.
Its history counted 3,763 operations, but only 16.67% of them ended with a gain. The portfolio remained 100% exposed to the rise of bitcoin, without a short position to cushion a new fall. These figures describe an aggressive strategy but do not identify its real owner.
A forced closure of such a position could briefly increase selling pressure. The system would have to sell part or all of the exposure to cover losses. Its effect on the market would depend on the order book depth, liquidation speed, and available buyers.
This bet mostly illustrates the risk of extreme leverage. An exposure close to 100 million dollars can rest on less than 3 million margin, but a usual variation of the bitcoin price can then quickly erase the engaged capital. The 79,828 dollar level remains the main threshold to watch as long as the position remains open and unchanged.
Maximize your Cointribune experience with our "Read to Earn" program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.
Join the program
A
A
Lien copié
Luc Jose A.
Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019.
Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
Peněženka 13Coop, která byla zahrnuta do žaloby Noah Doe, po více než 13 letech převedla 411,45 BTC v hodnotě 33,4 milionu USD na novou neoznačenou adresu.
In brief An address first funded in September 2013 moved 411.45 BTC, worth about $33.4 million, to a new wallet on Sunday, its first outgoing transfer ever. The coins cost about $54,000 when Bitcoin traded near $130, and the transfer went to an unlabeled address, not an exchange. Galaxy tagged the address as one of 39,069 named in a New York lawsuit by “Noah Doe” seeking ownership of dormant wallets as abandoned property. Another long-sleeping Bitcoin whale has stirred, and this one is named in a lawsuit claiming its coins were abandoned.
An address beginning with "13Coop" that had never sent a single coin since it was first funded on Sept. 11, 2013, moved 411.45 BTC, worth roughly $33.4 million, on Sunday, according to Galaxy Research. Arkham data shows the coins landed in a single new address, where they remain.
Myriad: How high will Bitcoin go? Click to make your prediction.When the wallet was funded, Bitcoin traded around $130, according to Arkham, meaning the stash cost about $54,000. Galaxy put the holder’s average cost basis near $127 and the paper gain at more than 64,000%. It’s unclear whether the owner plans to sell, since the transfer went to an unlabeled address, not an exchange.
Galaxy tagged the sending address as “Noah Doe #970,” marking it as one of 39,069 dormant addresses named in a New York lawsuit filed this year by a pseudonymous plaintiff called Noah Doe and two Wyoming companies.
🏚️ 💤 Address awakened — dormant 13+ years — 411.45 BTC sent
This address had never sent coins (first funded 2013-09-11, 13.1y ago); it just spent 411.45 BTC ($33.44M) in block 972,036
Address: 13Coop8xFbYj9JR9WyF5EqzGa9GiZmxs7C
Coins moved: 411.45 BTC in 2 UTXOs — all held…
— Galaxy Research (@glxyresearch) October 18, 2026
The plaintiffs argue that the wallets, which hold about 3.8 million BTC, qualify as abandoned property under the state’s lost-and-found law, even though they hold none of the private keys.
Galaxy also flagged the address as one of those “dusted” in a 2025 campaign that sent tiny amounts of Bitcoin carrying embedded messages to dormant wallets, which Galaxy has described as groundwork for the abandonment claim. Arkham’s data shows a string of those dust deposits, some labeled as phishing.
Each move chips away at the lawsuit’s premise. Spending coins requires the private keys, which suggests at least some of the targeted wallets are anything but abandoned. Galaxy head of research Alex Thorn has said the pace of dormant “Noah Doe” coins moving onchain has been accelerating month over month.
The wallet joins a growing list of old coins on the move. Bitcoin’s oldest coins have been waking up at an unusual clip in 2026, according to Galaxy Research data.
Just a little over a week ago, a Satoshi-era wallet mined in 2010 moved for the first time in 16 years. In late September, about $161 million in decade-old Bitcoin was transferred over the course of roughly two weeks. And just last week, a whale moved a whopping $377 million after holding through every major market crash since 2020.
Daily Debrief NewsletterStart every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.
Join 72,000+ readers
Create an account to save your articles.
Add on Google
Add Decrypt as your preferred source to see more of our stories on Google.
Bitcoin se obchoduje kolem 82 700 USD; podle partnera společnosti ARP Digital Yusufa Fakhra jeho další oživení podporují nižší páka a slábnoucí prodejní tlak.
Bitcoin’s recent decline has not undermined its broader recovery prospects, as reduced leverage and easing selling pressure suggest the market remains structurally healthy, according to Yusuf Fakhro, partner at ARP Digital.
Bitcoin is trading near $82,700 after recovering from a recent drop below $80,500, outperforming Ethereum and the broader altcoin market despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.
The leading crypto asset fell from approximately $86,000 before stabilizing in the low $80,000 range, as weakness in technology stocks and elevated Treasury yields weighed on investor appetite for risk assets.
Fakhro attributed the decline primarily to broader macroeconomic pressures rather than crypto specific factors in commentary shared with Crypto Briefing, noting that Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq has climbed to its highest level since June.
Despite the downturn, Bitcoin outperformed Ethereum and the wider altcoin market, finding support near the average acquisition price of spot Bitcoin exchange traded fund investors.
Lower leverage supports Bitcoin’s recovery
Fakhro said derivatives market conditions suggest Bitcoin has absorbed recent selling without experiencing a major liquidation cascade.
Funding rates have fallen to their lowest levels since June, while open interest has declined to five month lows, indicating traders had already reduced leveraged exposure before the latest decline.
The analyst argued that reduced leverage leaves the market in a healthier position, lowering the risk of forced selling during another period of volatility.
He also pointed to changes in Bitcoin’s ownership structure, suggesting that substantial amounts of older supply have moved into the hands of investors who accumulated near current prices and remained invested through the recent market downturn.
With fewer persistent sellers, Fakhro believes a recovery in demand could support further gains once broader market sentiment improves.
He maintained his bullish outlook after previously identifying accumulation opportunities when Bitcoin was trading in the mid $60,000 range.
Inflation and rising oil prices complicate Fed outlook
Bitcoin’s next major test could come from the Federal Reserve’s October 27 and 28 policy meeting, as persistent inflation and elevated energy prices complicate the outlook for interest rates.
US consumer prices increased 3.7% annually in September, accelerating from 3.4% in August and exceeding economists’ expectations of 3.6%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, reached 2.6%, reflecting continued price pressures across the economy.
Meanwhile, oil prices have remained elevated amid disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Brent crude surged to approximately $110 per barrel last week before retreating toward $108 on Monday, as traders assessed potential additional Russian oil supplies following changes to US sanctions.
Higher energy costs have reinforced inflation concerns, raising questions about whether the Fed will need to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer.
According to CME FedWatch probabilities reported Monday, traders assigned approximately an 85% chance that the central bank would keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75% to 4.00% this month, with roughly 15% odds of a quarter point increase.
Despite expectations for an October pause, markets continue to price in the possibility of additional tightening before year end, with December rate hike probabilities approaching 92%.
Elevated borrowing costs and persistent inflation could continue weighing on risk assets, including Bitcoin, particularly if energy prices resume their upward trajectory.
For Fakhro, however, the recent decline has not undermined Bitcoin’s broader recovery prospects.
The analyst considers weakness toward the low $80,000 range a potential accumulation opportunity, supported by reduced leverage, diminishing selling pressure and stronger demand than the rest of the crypto market.
He cautioned that a decisive break below that support area would warrant a more defensive outlook, while the upcoming Fed decision could determine whether Bitcoin extends its recovery or faces another period of macroeconomic volatility.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Strategy continues its financial strategy by combining bitcoin purchases and preferred stock buybacks. Between October 12 and 18, Michael Saylor’s company acquired 267 BTC for 22.1 million dollars. At the same time, it dedicated 193.1 million dollars to repurchasing STRC securities. This operation comes as Strategy maintains a significant bitcoin reserve, and its leader anticipates a market return to a bullish phase.
In brief
Strategy acquires 267 bitcoins for 22.1 million dollars, bringing its reserves to 848,517 BTC.
Michael Saylor’s company repurchases 1.94 million preferred STRC shares for 193.1 million dollars.
Strategy increases its authorization to repurchase digital credit securities from 2 to 3 billion dollars.
Michael Saylor anticipates a return of the bull market, despite macroeconomic obstacles weighing on bitcoin.
Strategy buys 267 bitcoins and strengthens its reserves
Michael Saylor’s company Strategy purchased 267 bitcoins between October 12 and 18, at an average price of 82,900 dollars per unit. The company thus invested an additional 22.1 million dollars in the leading cryptocurrency. According to a document submitted Monday to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), its reserves now total 848,517 BTC. This new move confirms the continuation of its acquisitions despite larger expenditures dedicated to preferred stocks.
To finance this purchase, Strategy primarily used the 22 million dollars obtained from the sale of 140,872 MSTR common shares. This operation allowed it to fund its acquisition without mobilizing a significant portion of its existing cash reserves. Meanwhile, the company reserved its available funds for repurchasing STRC securities. This allocation shows that the company pursues two distinct financial objectives.
However, the amounts involved illustrate a notable gap between the two operations. Strategy dedicated 193.1 million dollars to the repurchase of 1.94 million preferred STRC shares. This amount is nearly nine times the investment in new bitcoins. The company also raised its authorization to repurchase digital credit securities from 2 to 3 billion dollars.
STRC buybacks exceed bitcoin purchases
Since the start of the fourth quarter, Strategy has spent 459.2 million dollars repurchasing STRC shares. Over the same period, it invested 72.3 million dollars, acquiring 851 bitcoins. Buybacks therefore represent more than six times the spending on cryptocurrency. This difference confirms the growing role of preferred stock transactions in the company’s recent financial decisions.
STRC is a variable-rate preferred stock designed to pay regular dividends. Strategy aims to repurchase shares trading below their par value of 100 dollars to support their price. This policy partly explains the emphasis on these transactions. It also allows the company to influence the value of its shares while maintaining its bitcoin reserves.
To cover its financial commitments, Strategy states it holds 4.83 billion dollars designated for preferred stock dividends and debt interest. It also has 447.3 million dollars in separate cash reserves. These reserves provide a margin to honor its payments. However, the evolving spending between cryptocurrency purchases and stock buybacks will remain an important element to monitor.
Saylor anticipates a return of a bull market
Despite these larger buybacks, Michael Saylor remains optimistic about bitcoin’s outlook. During a discussion held Saturday during ParaFi’s investor day, he stated, “We are entering a bull market again.” He notably mentioned the price returning above its 200-day simple moving average. This indicator is often used to observe long-term price trends.
Saylor also cited several factors that could restrain the market. According to him, restrictive trade, foreign, and monetary policies are obstacles for BTC. Conversely, growing adoption by banks and the tokenization of traditional financial assets could support its development. These elements fuel his expectations, without guaranteeing a sustained price increase.
In the markets, MSTR stock was up more than 2.5% in premarket Monday, according to Yahoo Finance data, after losing about 9.6% Friday, closing at 138.83 dollars. STRC shares gained nearly 0.8%, at 98.45 dollars, after a 1.8% decline in the previous session.
In the short term, Strategy is therefore expected to continue its trades between bitcoin accumulation and preferred stock management. The pace of STRC buybacks, the evolution of its reserves, and market conditions will determine the continuation of this policy. The sustained return of bitcoin above its technical benchmarks could also influence the company’s upcoming decisions.
Maximize your Cointribune experience with our "Read to Earn" program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.
Join the program
A
A
Lien copié
Ghiles A.
Journaliste et rédacteur web passionné par l’univers des cryptomonnaies et des technologies Web3. J’y traite les dernières tendances et actualités afin de proposer un contenu de haute qualité à un large public du secteur.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
Bitwise očekává, že Bitcoin může do konce roku 2026 překonat 100 000 USD díky institucionální poptávce a ETF fondům, zatímco LO odhaduje cenu na 85 000 až 95 000 USD.
Can bitcoin reach 100000 dollars before the end of 2026? Bitwise considers this scenario still possible thanks to institutional demand, while LO forecasts a price between 85000 and 95000 dollars in the face of the return of inflation and rate hike risks.
In brief Bitwise believes that bitcoin could exceed 100000 dollars before the end of 2026. Institutional purchases and ETFs support the upside prospects for Bitcoin. LO forecasts a price between 85000 and 95000 dollars by the end of December. US inflation and the risk of new Fed rate hikes are slowing the market. Sustained crossing of 90000 dollars could accelerate the rebound towards 100000 dollars. Arguments supporting bitcoin at 100000 dollars Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise, maintains a positive view despite the pullback of bitcoin around 82000 dollars. He believes that several underlying factors can support the market in the last weeks of 2026.
The analyst summarizes his scenario in a cautious statement :
We believe bitcoin will end the year higher, potentially above 100000 dollars.
This projection is based on several drivers :
Purchases made by institutional investors via ETF ; Accumulation of bitcoins by some companies ; Search for rare assets in the face of inflation ; Increase in public debt ; Progressive improvement of the US regulatory framework. Cryptocurrency investment products have recorded about 11.1 billion dollars in inflows since mid-July, according to James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares. US spot bitcoin ETFs would have received nearly 6 billion dollars in the third quarter, including about 3.5 billion dollars in August.
This demand can reduce the amount of bitcoin available on the market. However, it does not guarantee an immediate rise. Butterfill points out that purchases have slowed and a real rebound will require regular institutional inflows.
A move from 82000 to 100000 dollars would represent an increase of close to 22%. Such a move remains possible in a volatile market, but it requires a significant improvement in the financial climate before December 31.
US inflation weakens the bullish scenario LO takes a more reserved view. Adam Morgan McCarthy, head of research at the company, rather expects bitcoin to evolve between 85000 and 95000 dollars until the end of the year.
This caution is mainly explained by the latest US data. The consumer price index rose by 0.6% in September compared to August and by 3.7% year on year. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 0.3% over one month and by 2.6% year on year.
The rise in gasoline played a major role. This component jumped 9.1% in September and accounted for more than half of the monthly increase in prices. These figures reinforced fears of a new tightening of US monetary policy.
The Federal Reserve had already raised its key rate by 25 basis points in September, to a range of 3.75% to 4%. A new hike would make risk-free investments more remunerative and reduce the liquidity available for volatile assets like bitcoin.
According to McCarthy, a return of BTC towards 100000 dollars would require a drop in oil prices, a slowdown in inflation, and a change in expectations regarding the Fed. The market would notably have to abandon the hypothesis of a rate hike in December in favor of a pause.
The 90000 dollar threshold could revive the market Derivatives offer a third scenario. Luca Invernizzi, trader at Laser Digital, a Nomura subsidiary, believes that the recent retreat removed some of the most fragile leveraged positions. This purge could make the market more stable if buyers return.
The 90000 dollar level now constitutes an important technical zone. Sustained crossing could force traders betting on a decline to buy back bitcoin to close their positions. These forced purchases could accelerate the rebound towards 100000 dollars.
Conversely, the absence of new flows into ETFs and persistent inflation would limit this potential. Investors will therefore watch the next Fed decisions, energy prices, and institutional inflows.
The forecasts of Bitwise and LO are not certainties. They describe two trajectories that depend primarily on the macroeconomic context. Before aiming for 100000 dollars, bitcoin must first retake 90000 dollars and maintain this level despite rate pressure.
Maximize your Cointribune experience with our "Read to Earn" program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.
Join the program
A
A
Lien copié
Luc Jose A.
Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
Strive has expanded its Bitcoin reserves, securing 4,045 BTC worth about $335 million last week as the leading cryptocurrency traded just below $81,000. The latest move brings Strive’s total Bitcoin purchases over the last two months to 15,462 BTC, valued at $1.27 billion.
Broader accumulation continues despite price uncertaintyBlockchain analytics firm Lookonchain reported that Strive acquired 4,045 BTC at an average price of $82,803 during the most recent week. Over the previous two months, Strive bought 15,462 BTC at a cumulative average of $82,417 per coin.
The company’s ongoing accumulation comes as the Bitcoin market faces significant uncertainty. Market watchers have noted that while corporate purchases like this can signal institutional confidence in using Bitcoin as a treasury asset, they do not necessarily lead to immediate price gains. Factors such as liquidity shifts, broader investor sentiment, and activity in both spot and derivatives markets also continue to influence Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory.
Strive, an investment management firm, has become increasingly active in the digital asset sector, drawing attention for its sizable and steady Bitcoin acquisitions.
Mini dictionary: Lookonchain, a blockchain analytics and monitoring platform, tracks and analyzes flows of digital assets across major chains, providing real-time insights and transparency for institutional and retail investors.
Traders are closely watching whether Bitcoin can maintain support at $80,400 or recover above $82,500 to signal renewed strength.
Technical structure and price levels in focusAt present, Bitcoin is trading near $81,000. Technical analysis by Bitcoin Meraklisi, a widely followed cryptocurrency analyst, highlights a critical support level at $80,400 and resistance at $82,500. If Bitcoin’s price drops below the $80,400 threshold, the next downside target becomes $78,500. Conversely, a move above $82,500 could create space for upward momentum, with $84,400 regarded as the level where the current bearish price pattern would no longer hold.
The 2618 pattern, based on Fibonacci retracement and extension levels, remains valid according to the analyst, with $80,400 already tested as an initial support. Traders are waiting for confirmation of a breakout or breakdown to determine Bitcoin’s near-term direction.
LevelSignificance$80,400Key support$82,500Immediate resistance$84,400Bearish pattern invalidation$78,500Next downside targetDespite Strive’s aggressive buying, there is no clear indication that these corporate purchases provide a floor for Bitcoin’s price. Analysts caution that the current costs and strategies of large-scale buyers like Strive are only one factor in a complex market structure.
“The costs associated with institutional accumulation may not translate directly into price stability or new support levels, as market direction is influenced by several intertwined factors.”
Short-term outlook and market dynamicsStrive’s acquisitions illustrate the interest among institutions to build Bitcoin positions, even while prices remain volatile and technical signals appear mixed. Whether this trend continues among other investment managers is yet to be determined, as comprehensive data on industry-wide institutional inflows remains limited.
Traders are focused on watching daily closing prices, key technical levels, and any shifts in volumes or on-chain flows, which could provide further clues to market sentiment and trend durability.
The next decisive movement in Bitcoin’s price will likely provide stronger signals about whether current support holds or a new leg down is forthcoming. Both bulls and bears are closely tracking the $80,400 and $82,500 marks for actionable signs.
As institutional accumulation continues and technical volatility persists, Bitcoin’s market direction remains highly dynamic heading into the new week.
Akcionáři Super League schválili investici Metaplanet v hodnotě 2 100 BTC a 2,5 milionu USD. Po dokončení se společnost přejmenuje na Superplanet a bude se na Nasdaqu obchodovat pod tickerem SUPA.
Super League stockholders have approved all proposals tied to Metaplanet‘s 2,100 BTC investment, clearing the way for the Nasdaq-listed company to be renamed Superplanet and become the Japanese firm’s U.S. Bitcoin treasury vehicle.
The proposals passed at Super League Enterprise, Inc.’s 2026 annual meeting of stockholders, held Friday and were disclosed Monday morning. The transaction itself was first announced in August.
Under the definitive agreement, Metaplanet, Inc. will contribute 2,100 Bitcoin and $2.5 million in cash through its wholly owned U.S. subsidiary, Metaplanet Holdings, Inc.
JUST IN: 🇯🇵 Japan's Metaplanet to buy Super League for 2,100 BTC and $2.5 million 👀
This will give the 2nd-largest corporate BTC holder a U.S. listed Bitcoin treasury platform! 🚀 pic.twitter.com/0gucAALjAX
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) October 19, 2026
In exchange, Metaplanet receives 44,859,400 shares of common stock at $3.00 per share, along with preferred stock and warrants.
At closing, Super League will be renamed “Superplanet, Inc.” and trade on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol “SUPA.” Its advertising and media activation business will continue as a distinct operating segment, and Matt Edelman will remain chief executive officer.
Among the measures stockholders approved were the issuance of common stock and warrants to Metaplanet and the corporate name change. The proposals also included an increase in authorized preferred shares from 10 million to 100 million, according to a summary of the meeting posted on X.
“Super League stockholders have voted to approve the proposed Metaplanet transaction, an important step in our transformation from a Bitcoin treasury company into a global Bitcoin-native financial platform,” Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich wrote on X.
“Upon close, Superplanet will be our U.S.-listed Bitcoin treasury platform, providing direct access to U.S. capital markets and greater flexibility to opportunistically raise capital.”
Edelman framed the vote similarly in the company’s announcement: “Their approval brings us one step closer to redefining what this company can become.”
Closing is anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2026, subject to customary closing conditions, including required filings with the Nasdaq Capital Market. The shareholder approvals represent a required step but not the final one.
Super League said the arrangement is intended to establish conditions governing Metaplanet’s ability to dispose of its equity holdings following the transaction. The company did not provide details of exceptions to those restrictions in its announcement.
Metaplanet held 43,000 BTC as of August 18, describing itself as the third-largest corporate Bitcoin treasury among publicly traded companies. The combined structure is intended to give the group two listed Bitcoin treasury platforms — one on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, one on Nasdaq — each with its own investor base and reporting currency.
Super League connects brands with what it describes as a 3.3 billion-person global gaming population through advertising and branded content programs across gaming and digital media platforms. Metaplanet is a Tokyo-listed company building Bitcoin-based financial products and infrastructure.
Shares of Super League moved higher on the news.
Mathew Di Salvo
Mathew is a reporter who's covered the space since 2019, reporting on everything from Salvadoran president Nayib Bukele's Bitcoin bet to crypto exchange FTX's bankruptcy.
Německá síť Sparkassen prostřednictvím aplikace DekaBank spustila obchodování s BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL a POL; výběry do soukromých peněženek nejsou povoleny.
Germany’s Sparkassen savings bank network launched cryptocurrency trading on Monday, allowing customers to buy Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Polygon. The service is being rolled out through DekaBank and will be launched slowly in the participating savings banks, albeit with restrictions on transfers to personal wallets.
Sparkassen Launches Five Cryptocurrencies Through Banking App Under certain conditions, the Sparkassen customers of DekaBank can trade five cryptocurrencies directly via the existing banking application. The offering is named “Krypto – powered by Deka,” and it enables trading in BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, and POL.
The service can be used in the investment part of the Sparkasse app without the need for a separate securities account. Each transaction costs €0.99, although additional costs arise from the difference between buying and selling prices.
The launch comes after a series of initiatives by German banks to bring on-board cryptocurrency trading to existing customer accounts. DekaBank has created the Sparkassen service, and DZ Bank has backed up a separate rollout amongst Germany’s cooperative banks.
DekaBank is custodian of cryptocurrencies on its own wallet infrastructure and participates in trading arrangements with Börse Stuttgart. Users will have the ability to see their cryptocurrency assets in addition to various other monetary products and services in the current application.
DekaBank Restricts Crypto Withdrawals to Approved Providers While it is possible to buy cryptocurrencies at Sparkassen, they cannot be transferred directly to private hardware wallets. DekaBank maintains the private keys, and only specific cryptocurrency service providers are allowed to make transfers.
The agreement involves customers having to trust that DekaBank will keep their digital assets safe and handle their permitted withdrawals. However, the restrictions do not prevent users from selling their cryptocurrencies through the banking application.
The service is aimed at adult customers who make it on their own, and Sparkassen will not give investment advice on cryptocurrencies. DekaBank also cautions investors that the value of digital assets could be volatile with a potential loss of investment.
The custody is part of a broader trend across German financial institutions, including Deutsche Bank’s cryptocurrency custody plans. These services are regulated under EU laws, such as the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation.
Sparkassen Plans Wider Crypto Trading Rollout Into 2027 More than 230 Sparkassen institutions have expressed interest in introducing cryptocurrency trading, according to German banking representatives. Each savings bank, however, will determine on its own if and when it will provide the service.
Around 30 to 40 institutions can join monthly, said Joachim Schmalzl, an executive board member of the German Savings Banks Association. The group is targeting the first half of 2027 for the largest number of interested banks to be connected.
The first phase is limited to the participating institutions and not nationwide through Germany’s savings banking network. Before opening a cryptocurrency account, customers should therefore inquire whether their local Sparkasse has switched on the service.
The expansion comes after the banking group’s earlier stance on digital assets. Sparkassen had previously been against the retail trading of cryptocurrencies due to concerns about price volatility and losses by investors.
The group is still pushing traditional securities and savings products as a way to build up long-term wealth, even with the introduction of cryptocurrency trading.
Mt. Gox se souhlasem soudu prodloužil lhůtu pro splátky věřitelům z 31. října 2026 na 31. října 2027 kvůli nevyřízeným postupům a problémům se zpracováním plateb.
Mt. Gox has moved its creditor repayment deadline from Oct. 31, 2026, to Oct. 31, 2027, after receiving court approval.
Trustee Nobuaki Kobayashi said many creditors remain unpaid due to incomplete procedures or problems during processing.
Base, Early Lump-Sum and Intermediate Repayments are largely complete for creditors who met all requirements.
The notice did not share how many creditors are unpaid or how much Bitcoin is left to distribute.
Mt. Gox held more than 34,500 BTC in June 2026, after moving 10,422 BTC worth about $739 million.
Mt. Gox has moved its creditor repayment deadline back by one year. The new deadline is Oct. 31, 2027, after a court approved the change.
The deadline had been set for Oct. 31, 2026. The extension gives creditors more time to finish the steps needed to receive their funds.
The change was announced in an Oct. 16 notice from rehabilitation trustee Nobuaki Kobayashi. He said many creditors still have not been paid.
Why Mt. Gox Extended the Bitcoin Repayment Deadline
Kobayashi said some creditors have not completed the required procedures. Others finished the steps but ran into problems while their payments were being processed.
According to the trustee, Base Repayment, Early Lump-Sum Repayment and Intermediate Repayment are largely complete. This applies to creditors who submitted the right information and had no issues.
The court-approved extension gives the trustee 12 more months to keep making payments. Distributions will continue where repayment remains reasonably practicable.
The notice did not add a new repayment category. It also did not change the amounts creditors are entitled to receive.
The announcement did not give an updated count of unpaid creditors. It also did not say how much Bitcoin or other assets are left, or give a timetable for individual payments.
A Long History of Delays
The original repayment target was October 2023. Since then, the deadline has been pushed back several times.
In October 2024, the trustee moved the deadline to October 2025. In October 2025, it was moved again to Oct. 31, 2026. At that time, about 19,500 creditors had received payments.
Mt. Gox was a Tokyo-based exchange that once handled about 70% of global Bitcoin trading. It filed for bankruptcy in 2014 after losing about 850,000 BTC.
The exchange later entered civil rehabilitation. Repayments in Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash began in July 2024 through exchanges including Kraken and Bitstamp. Custodian BitGo also received Bitcoin as part of the process.
Kraken confirmed it received creditor funds on July 16, 2024. It then began crediting eligible users, some of whom had waited more than a decade.
Mt. Gox still held large Bitcoin reserves this year. On June 2, it moved 10,422 BTC worth about $739 million, according to blockchain data cited by Arkham Intelligence.
At the time of that June report, Mt. Gox held more than 34,500 BTC. Those figures are historical and do not show the current balance.
The Oct. 16 notice did not disclose a new wallet balance or confirm further transfers. It also did not name any exchange set to receive another distribution.
Creditors can also use a separate inquiry form without logging in. However, the trustee said identity verification may be harder in those cases.
Creditors can send questions through the online rehabilitation claims system. The trustee warned that responses may be delayed because of the high volume of inquiries.
Bitcoin v pondělí vystoupal nad 82 000 USD, přestože americké spotové ETF zaznamenaly za týden končící 16. října čistý odliv ve výši 228,6 milionu USD.
The bounce follows a week of hot U.S. inflation data and $228.6 million in spot bitcoin ETF outflows.
Bitcoin returns above $82K
Posted October 19, 2026 at 6:45 am ET.
A pullback in oil and a firmer start for U.S. stock futures are giving bitcoin room to climb past $82,000 on Monday.
BTC changed hands near $83,007 as of 09:38 UTC, up about 1.1% over 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data. Over that 24-hour window it traded between $80,672 and $83,035, while ether rose about 0.8% and Solana about 1.7%, CoinGecko data showed.
Get Unchained’s crypto news in your inbox with the free Unchained Daily newsletter.
Levels Analysts Flagged Monday’s price leaves bitcoin above the average price U.S. spot ETFs paid for their coins, which onchain analytics firm Glassnode put at about $81,500 in its Oct. 14 weekly report. Glassnode’s Frederik Theissen wrote in that report that “a return to steady ETF inflows would be the clearest sign that demand is back.”
Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev set out a similar test in the firm’s Oct. 16 market note, written before Monday’s bounce: “For Bitcoin, a move back above $84,000 and a second day of ETF inflows are the signs buyers are returning, with the $80,000 area, defended three times in a week, the level to hold.”
ETF Flows and Oil Fund flows haven’t turned yet. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs shed $681 million in the week ended Oct. 9 and another $228.6 million in the week ended Oct. 16, according to SoSoValue.
Front-month Brent futures were at $108.47 a barrel as of 09:29 UTC, down 1.3% from Friday’s $109.86 close, according to Yahoo Finance data. Friday’s close was the highest since May 19. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.1% and S&P 500 futures gained 0.5% as of 09:29 UTC, according to Yahoo Finance data.
A Rough Week Behind It Bitcoin ended last week about 2% lower, CoinGecko data show, after hotter-than-expected September inflation data on Oct. 14 pushed it toward $80,500 the next day.
James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, wrote in an Oct. 16 market update that the slide was “a reminder of how sensitive Bitcoin remains to monetary policy over short horizons.”
Related Listen: Bitcoin Reclaims Its Bear-Market Ceiling. Is the Rally Real?
AI-assisted content: This article was produced with the assistance of AI tools and was reviewed, edited, and fact-checked by a member of the Unchained editorial team before publication.
Standard Chartered umožnila profesionálním investorům ve Spojených arabských emirátech obchodovat s bitcoinem a etherem přímo z bankovních účtů bez nutnosti vlastnit vlastní kryptoměnovou peněženku.
Standard Chartered has enabled eligible wealthy clients in the United Arab Emirates to buy and sell Bitcoin and Ethereum directly through their existing bank accounts.
Standard Chartered has begun offering direct cryptocurrency trading to its wealthy clients classified as professional investors in the United Arab Emirates. Under the new service, eligible clients will be able to buy and sell Bitcoin and Ethereum using their existing bank accounts.
According to the bank’s statement, custody and settlement operations will be conducted within the Standard Chartered ecosystem via a closed-loop model. Therefore, customers will not need to create a separate cryptocurrency wallet, store private keys, or open an account on a third-party exchange.
The service combines Standard Chartered’s asset and retail banking units with its corporate and investment banking activities. Transactions are conducted through the Zodia Markets platform, which is backed by the bank’s venture capital arm, SC Ventures.
Standard Chartered announced that it has received the necessary license approval from the Dubai Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority for the service. The bank states that this product is the first of its kind offered by an international bank in the United Arab Emirates. This also marks Standard Chartered’s first foray into offering cryptocurrency trading directly to wealthy individual clients in any country.
The bank had previously launched institutional Bitcoin and Ethereum spot trading through its UK arm, later expanding its institutional service to the UAE. It also offers crypto ETFs, structured products, and over-the-counter derivatives to eligible clients.
It shouldn’t be assumed that the service is open to all individual customers. Users need to meet professional investor requirements, and initially, only Bitcoin and Ethereum are supported. While Standard Chartered has stated its intention to expand the system to other markets, it has not announced any new countries or implementation schedule.
*This is not investment advice.
Follow our Telegram and X account now for exclusive news, analytics and on-chain data!
Bitcoin mining company MARA Holdings has transferred 1,000 BTC worth approximately $82.8 million to cryptocurrency exchanges Binance and Gate over the past five days, raising questions about another possible sale from its Bitcoin reserves.
Summary
MARA linked wallets transferred 1,000 BTC worth approximately $82.8 million to Binance and Gate over the past five days, according to Lookonchain. The latest deposits follow an earlier transfer of 996 BTC worth roughly $81 million to a wallet linked to Galaxy Digital on Oct. 8. MARA sold approximately 23,093 BTC for $1.63 billion during the first half of 2026 as the company reduced debt and funded operations. The latest exchange transfers have raised questions about further Bitcoin sales, although no completed sale has been confirmed. Blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain reported on Oct. 19 that wallets associated with MARA had deposited the Bitcoin into the two exchanges, suggesting the company may be preparing to sell some of its holdings.
The transactions involved wallets identified through blockchain tracking data, including addresses associated with MARA’s mining operations.
According to the wallet activity referenced by Lookonchain, the funds moved through multiple addresses before reaching their reported exchange destinations.
However, the transfers alone do not confirm that MARA has sold the Bitcoin. The company has not publicly established the purpose of the transactions, and the available records do not show whether the funds were converted into cash, used for trading, or transferred for another purpose.
The reported activity follows a series of Bitcoin sales and treasury transactions by MARA during 2026, when the company began using more of its cryptocurrency reserves to fund operations, repay debt, and support investments in digital infrastructure.
MARA Bitcoin transfers follow another $81 million transaction MARA’s latest exchange deposits were reported less than two weeks after another substantial movement of Bitcoin linked to the company.
On Oct. 9, crypto.news reported a transfer of 996.105 BTC worth approximately $81.13 million from a MARA-associated wallet to an address identified as belonging to Galaxy Digital.
Lookonchain flagged the earlier transaction after identifying the movement through blockchain records.
The transfer took place on Oct. 8 and involved Bitcoin moving from a wallet labeled as belonging to a MARA miner.
Although the transaction raised questions about a possible sale, the blockchain activity did not establish whether Galaxy Digital had purchased the assets or received them for another financial arrangement.
The latest deposits involve different reported destinations, with funds moving to Binance and Gate instead of Galaxy Digital.
Lookonchain’s findings identify the exchange transfers but do not establish whether the coins involved were newly mined Bitcoin or assets previously held in MARA’s treasury.
The two reported movements total approximately 1,996 BTC, valued at roughly $164 million using the dollar estimates published for each transaction. However, the available evidence does not establish whether the movements involved distinct coins or whether any assets were subsequently transferred between the identified destinations.
MARA has previously acknowledged that movements involving its Bitcoin reserves can result from activities other than outright sales.
In its third-quarter 2025 shareholder letter, the company disclosed that it had begun actively managing a portion of its Bitcoin holdings through trading activities, which could cause wallet balances to fluctuate.
The company said most of the Bitcoin allocated to its active management strategy remained in lending arrangements.
MARA sold more than $1.6 billion in Bitcoin during the first half MARA’s reported exchange activity comes after the company substantially reduced its Bitcoin reserves during the first six months of 2026.
The miner sold approximately 23,093 BTC for roughly $1.63 billion during the first half of the year, according to its financial disclosures.
Sales were concentrated in the first quarter, when MARA disposed of 20,880 BTC at an average price of approximately $70,137 per coin.
The transactions generated nearly $1.5 billion as the company sought additional liquidity and reduced outstanding debt.
In March, MARA announced that it had sold 15,133 BTC between March 4 and March 25 for approximately $1.1 billion.
According to the company’s official announcement, the proceeds were intended to support the repurchase of convertible senior notes due in 2030 and 2031.
The repurchase transactions were expected to reduce outstanding convertible debt by approximately 30% and generate around $88.1 million in savings before transaction costs.
MARA continued selling Bitcoin during the second quarter, disposing of another 2,213 BTC at an average price of $73,078.
The company produced 2,422 BTC during the same quarter, leaving its total holdings slightly higher than at the end of March.
By June 30, MARA held 35,577 BTC, compared with 53,822 BTC at the end of December 2025.
Its remaining Bitcoin holdings were valued at approximately $2.1 billion at the end of June, based on a reference price of $58,524 per coin.
MARA’s second-quarter financial results showed revenue falling 27% year over year to $174.9 million, while the company recorded a net loss of $611.3 million.
The company attributed part of its financial performance to changes in the fair value of its digital assets, which resulted in approximately $343 million in losses associated with Bitcoin and related receivables.
Despite the weaker financial results, Bitcoin production rose 3% year over year, while energized hashrate reached 70.3 exahashes per second.
MARA’s second-quarter shareholder letter said the company expected to continue monetizing Bitcoin when market conditions and capital requirements supported doing so.
The policy permits sales to fund operations, provide liquidity, and finance capital projects.
Bitcoin reserves are supporting MARA’s financing plans MARA has increasingly used its Bitcoin holdings for financing arrangements alongside direct sales.
In August, the company pledged 18,750 BTC as initial collateral for two credit facilities that provided $600 million in new borrowing.
The arrangements involved Coinbase Credit and Two Prime Lending, with each providing $300 million in additional financing.
Coinbase’s facility included the refinancing of an existing $150 million credit line, bringing its total principal to $450 million.
Two Prime separately provided a $300 million loan carrying a fixed annual interest rate of 7.65%.
The facilities were structured with a weighted average borrowing cost of approximately 7.56% on the incremental financing.
MARA said the proceeds could support general corporate purposes, including part of the cash consideration for its planned acquisition of Long Ridge Energy & Power.
At the end of June, the company had already allocated 9,270 BTC to its digital asset management strategy.
Of that amount, 4,742 BTC had been loaned to counterparties, while another 4,528 BTC had been pledged as collateral.
The remaining 26,307 BTC were classified as unrestricted holdings at the reporting date.
The company generated approximately $4.3 million in interest income from Bitcoin lending arrangements during the second quarter.
MARA’s filings distinguish between unrestricted Bitcoin, assets loaned to counterparties, and Bitcoin pledged to secure borrowing.
The company has not disclosed whether the latest 1,000 BTC exchange deposits relate to any of those existing financing arrangements.
MARA continues investing in AI and energy infrastructure MARA’s Bitcoin treasury strategy has developed alongside its investments in artificial intelligence, power generation, and high-performance computing infrastructure.
The company has been expanding beyond conventional Bitcoin mining operations by acquiring energy assets and developing facilities that can support computing workloads.
Its planned acquisition of Long Ridge Energy & Power involves a 505-megawatt natural gas power plant in Ohio and a site that could eventually support more than one gigawatt of computing capacity.
The proposed transaction, valued at approximately $1.5 billion, forms part of MARA’s effort to control energy infrastructure used by its mining and computing operations.
The company has identified Bitcoin-backed borrowing as one source of financing for the acquisition.
MARA has pursued another large development in Texas, where it acquired a 1,200-acre powered site with potential access to as much as two gigawatts of grid capacity over time.
The Texas project is intended to support additional digital infrastructure development as the company expands its computing business.
Management has said its potential power portfolio could reach approximately 4.8 gigawatts when its existing assets and planned developments are considered.
The company previously disclosed that it was evaluating the conversion of some Bitcoin mining capacity to artificial intelligence and other computing applications.
MARA’s strategy has included reviewing up to 90% of its non-hosted mining capacity for possible conversion, although the company has not committed to converting that entire amount.
Its second-quarter shareholder letter identified access to electricity, land, and computing infrastructure as priorities for future investment.
The company reported purchased energy costs of approximately $38,690 per Bitcoin at its owned facilities during the quarter.
MARA mined 2,422 BTC during the period and reported that no Bitcoin was purchased in the second quarter.
Its financial disclosures stated that Bitcoin would remain part of the company’s capital management strategy, with holdings available for lending, collateral arrangements, and sales depending on business requirements.
The company has said its Bitcoin monetization decisions remain subject to market conditions and capital allocation priorities.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has proposed a new framework that could allow U.S. cryptocurrency exchanges to opt for federal oversight. This proposed structure aims to create a new registration category known as the “crypto asset market,” which would fall under the CFTC’s jurisdiction. This framework is designed to cover exchanges offering leveraged, margined, or financed retail activity, incorporating requirements like market surveillance, anti-manipulation, customer protection, and proof-of-reserves controls. Basic spot exchanges may continue to operate primarily under state money-transmitter licenses, as the CFTC currently lacks the authority to enforce universal federal registration.
Key Takeaways
The CFTC’s proposal appears to indicate a move towards more structured federal oversight for certain crypto exchanges.
Market pricing suggests that the proposal could be supportive of a YES outcome for Bitcoin price increases in the short term.
The proposal is consistent with efforts to improve regulatory clarity and consumer protection in the cryptocurrency space.
What to Watch
Observers will be keen to see how major exchanges like Coinbase and Binance respond to the CFTC’s proposal. Any indication of support or resistance from key players could impact market sentiment. Additionally, the response from lawmakers and regulators, including any steps towards formal adoption or amendments to the proposal, will be critical in determining its future impact on the market. Markets will be monitoring these developments closely, as they could significantly influence Bitcoin’s price trajectory in the near term.
Bitcoin has long carried a reputation for extreme price swings that set it apart from conventional investments. A recent analysis from Grayscale, however, places those movements in a more familiar context by measuring them against individual stocks in the S&P 500.
According to the firm’s research note published on October 14, 2026, Bitcoin’s realized volatility over the past year stood at 43 percent.
That figure sits below the asset’s 10-year average of 64 percent and well under the 81 percent level recorded five years earlier.
Realized volatility tracks actual historical price movements rather than market expectations of future moves.
The one-year reading now falls inside the distribution of volatility observed among S&P 500 constituents.
More specifically, Bitcoin’s recent volatility was lower than that of 19 percent of the companies in the index, meaning a meaningful share of large-cap equities experienced larger price fluctuations over the same period.
The decline is not limited to the most recent twelve months.
Over the past decade, Bitcoin’s price swings have narrowed considerably as the market has matured.
Grayscale attributes the change to several structural developments: deeper market liquidity, broader institutional participation, and the expansion of regulated access points, including the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products approved in the United States in 2024.
These factors have reduced the extremes that characterized the asset’s earlier years, when thin order books and limited institutional involvement amplified moves in both directions.
Even with the reduction, Bitcoin’s volatility remains higher than that of most individual S&P 500 stocks in the comparison sample.
The firm’s researchers note, however, that it no longer occupies a distinctly separate risk category.
The practical implication for portfolio construction is a shift in the central question investors face.
Rather than debating whether to hold an asset perceived as uniquely volatile, the focus moves to determining an appropriate position size that aligns with an investor’s overall risk tolerance and the way the holding interacts with the rest of a portfolio.
The same position-sizing and diversification tools already applied to high-volatility equities can be used for Bitcoin.
A single year of data does not fully capture Bitcoin’s behavior across complete market cycles, and realized volatility is inherently backward-looking. Still, the comparison supplies a concrete reference point against widely owned equities.
For investors who already allocate to volatile stocks—particularly growth-oriented names—the magnitude of Bitcoin’s recent price fluctuations may appear less exceptional than its long-standing reputation suggests.
The research emphasizes that any potential allocation still warrants the same disciplined evaluation of risk and opportunity applied to other holdings.
Grayscale’s analysis draws on data from Artemis as of October 14, 2026.
The findings align with broader observations that 2025 ranked among the least volatile years on record for the asset, according to separate research from K33. Together, the numbers illustrate how market infrastructure and participant mix have altered Bitcoin’s day-to-day behavior, even as larger drawdowns remain possible during periods of stress.
Cyklusově upravený percentil ukazatele MVRV Bitcoinu klesl po opakovaném odmítnutí na úrovni 87 000 USD na 25,7 %, což historicky odpovídá akumulačnímu pásmu.
Bitcoin keeps knocking on the door at $87,000. The door keeps not opening.
After repeated rejections near that level, a key on-chain valuation gauge has slipped below its 30th percentile. Crypto analyst Darkfost reported on October 18, 2026 that Bitcoin’s cycle-adjusted MVRV percentile had fallen to 25.7%, a reading tied to what has historically been accumulation territory.
What the MVRV reading actually says For Bitcoin, MVRV compares market value, the current price applied to all coins, against realized value, which prices each coin at the moment it last moved on-chain. When the gap is wide, holders are sitting on fat paper gains. When it narrows, the market is closer to its collective cost basis.
Darkfost’s version adds a twist. Rather than relying on the raw MVRV ratio, the analysis uses a percentile adjusted for current market conditions across cycles, asking how today’s valuation ranks against Bitcoin’s own history.
At 25.7%, Bitcoin is back in a band it has occupied only about 25% of the time. Historically, that region has been associated with accumulation rather than euphoria.
There is a nuance worth noting. The current reading sits in accumulation territory, but it has not entered the extreme undervaluation band that has historically lined up with major market lows.
The $87,000 problem Bitcoin faced at least three price rejections near or above $87,000 between late September and early October 2026.
When Darkfost’s observation landed, Bitcoin’s spot price was sitting between $81,700 and $81,900. That marks a clear pullback from the $87,000 resistance level that buyers have repeatedly failed to clear.
The research describes the recent selling as appearing capitulation-style, and the analysis suggests it may set up a transitional accumulation phase.
Lookonchain, KuCoin, Odaily and Cointelegraph all picked up Darkfost’s findings on the same day.
Long-term holders and ETFs: the supply side The research indicates that long-term Bitcoin holders are currently distributing more coins than they are acquiring.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have been one candidate to absorb that supply. Net inflows to those products were mildly positive in September 2026. Flows have since flattened or tipped into slight outflows in October.
Why cycle-adjusted metrics are getting attention Raw on-chain metrics have a known weakness. As Bitcoin matures and its market structure changes, thresholds that worked in earlier cycles can drift out of usefulness. A cycle-adjusted percentile tries to correct for that by ranking current conditions against a moving historical backdrop.
What this means for traders and investors The research frames a potential strategic entry as dependent on the market holding around the $81,700 range and showing signs of a bullish reversal.
Long-term holders are net distributing, and ETF demand has cooled from September’s modest gains. If outflows begin to outpace inflows in a meaningful way, the accumulation thesis loses one of its supporting legs.
The current reading has exited the extreme undervaluation band most closely tied to historical market lows, leaving room for the metric to fall further before conditions match past cycle floors.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Stacks ve 4. čtvrtletí zavede měsíční bonding BTC a začátkem prosince nasadí upgrade Epoch 4.1, který nastaví Clarity 7 jako výchozí verzi pro nové smart kontrakty.
Stacks has laid out its fourth-quarter game plan, and it centers on getting more Bitcoin locked into its system.
The Bitcoin layer 2 protocol says Q4 will focus on growing BTC bonds, putting that BTC to work in ecosystem apps, and shipping the Epoch 4.1 network upgrade in early December.
The priorities arrived alongside the protocol’s Q3 Ecosystem Report, released on October 15, 2026.
Monthly bonds and a December upgrade Stacks plans to run Bitcoin Staking bonding periods on a monthly schedule. The first of these monthly windows, Bond 3, is slated to open around November 10, 2026.
Bitcoin Staking has drawn 735 BTC in total across its first two phases. That figure splits into 250 BTC from the inaugural Genesis Bond and 505 BTC from Period 2.
The other big Q4 item is Epoch 4.1, the next network upgrade, which Stacks is targeting for early December. Epoch 4.1 will make Clarity 7 the default for new smart contracts on the network.
Stacks says the exact activation block height will be announced 30 days ahead of time.
Staking growth and a leadership shift The Q3 report also pointed to a jump in STX staking. After the PoX-5 upgrade, the amount of staked STX climbed from 392 million to 493 million, an increase of more than 25%.
STX rose approximately 50% over the four weeks leading to October 13, 2026, outperforming Bitcoin across that stretch. The research findings tie that outperformance to increased institutional participation in liquid staking.
The report landed alongside a leadership change. Stacks founder Muneeb Ali transitioned to CEO of Stacks Labs as the report was released.
With the new role came a long-range strategic vision branded the “Satoshi Upgrades.” The plan aims to expand Bitcoin’s capabilities in three areas: capital markets, privacy, and post-quantum security, with a timeline running through 2030.
What this means for Stacks and BTC holders For developers, Epoch 4.1 is the item to circle on the calendar. Clarity 7 becoming the default for new contracts means teams building in December and beyond should plan around the updated version. The 30-day notice on the activation block height gives node operators, app teams, and anyone running infrastructure a month of notice before the switch flips.
Stacks is juggling a new bonding cadence, an app-integration push, a December upgrade, and a CEO transition, all in a single quarter.
The near-term scorecard is simple: watch Bond 3 intake around November 10, watch for the Epoch 4.1 block height announcement, and watch whether the BTC flowing into Stacks starts showing up inside actual apps.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Oživení bitcoinu zůstává nerovnoměrné: 30denní spotová poptávka klesla do záporných hodnot, zatímco rezervy na burzách vzrostly z 2,67 milionu na 2,68 milionu BTC.
Exchange reserves rose from about 2.67 million BTC to 2.68 million BTC but remain low versus January.
Spot demand neared zero before turning negative, while perpetual futures demand stayed positive.
Holders of 100–1,000 BTC remain net accumulators, while the over-10,000 BTC cohort is still negative.
A durable recovery needs positive spot demand, buyers absorbing exchange inflows, and wider accumulation.
Bitcoin recovery remains uneven, according to updated CryptoQuant charts reviewed in a new XWIN Japan column. Exchange reserves, spot demand, and whale behavior show mixed signals as the U.S. midterms approach.
Low reserves, whale accumulation, and improving estimated demand still support a possible base. However, the latest data shows that buying strength is not yet consistent across the market. The column examines three charts that explain where support holds and where it weakens.
Exchange Reserves Edge Higher
Exchange reserves measure the amount of BTC held on trading platforms. They have risen from roughly 2.67 million BTC in early October to around 2.68 million BTC. Despite the increase, reserves remain low compared with January. Low reserves do not mean supply keeps shrinking.
Source: Cryptoquant
Transfers may reflect custody changes rather than selling. Therefore, rising reserves alone do not prove that holders are selling.
The increase is modest, and it comes from a low base. The supports from the earlier column remain, yet the Bitcoin recovery is uneven.
The earlier column, published six days ago, listed low reserves among the signs of base building. That earlier analysis centered on Bitcoin base building ahead of the U.S. midterms.
A durable Bitcoin recovery now requires buyers to absorb BTC that returns to exchanges. Reserves are rising, so that condition matters more.
Spot Demand Loses Momentum
The 30-day demand chart shows spot demand approaching zero before turning negative again. Spot demand reflects direct BTC purchases, while perpetual futures involve derivatives.
Meanwhile, positive perpetual futures demand supports total demand. Spot buying therefore remains weaker than futures activity.
Source: Cryptoquant
The earlier column cited improving estimated demand. This new breakdown differs from the Apparent Demand metric discussed previously. Their values are not directly comparable, so the readings should be viewed separately.
Sustained positive spot demand is one of three conditions for a durable Bitcoin recovery. Without it, futures demand carries the total figure. Positive spot readings would show buyers acting directly in the market.
Whale Cohorts Show Mixed Behavior
Holders of 100–1,000 BTC remain net accumulators over 60 days. Their buying sits below the late-September peak despite a modest rebound. The cohort has kept buying through the past two months.
Net holding declines among the 1,000–10,000 BTC cohort have narrowed toward zero. Meanwhile, the cohort above 10,000 BTC remains negative.
Source: Cryptoquant
Accumulation is therefore not broad-based across holder groups. A durable recovery also needs accumulation to spread more widely.
These rolling figures include pre-October activity and can reflect transfers between cohorts. Conditions that could support a base still exist. Expectations around the midterms and monetary policy must translate into actual buying.
The key is whether rallies gain a growing, lasting base of buyers. Until then, the Bitcoin recovery depends on whether buying broadens beyond a single holder group.
Strategy drží 848 250 BTC poté, co v týdnu končícím 11. října nakoupila dalších 250 BTC za 21,5 milionu USD. Michael Saylor naznačil další akumulaci, transakce však zatím nebyla potvrzena.
Michael Saylor has hinted at another Bitcoin purchase for Strategy after the company reported holdings of 848,250 BTC, acquired for approximately $64 billion, in its latest weekly disclosure.
Summary
Michael Saylor hinted at further Bitcoin accumulation, although Strategy has not confirmed another purchase this weekend. Strategy’s latest filing shows holdings of 848,250 BTC, acquired for approximately $64 billion including transaction costs. The company bought 250 Bitcoin for $21.5 million during the week ending October 11, its latest disclosure. Strategy spent $192.4 million buying back STRC shares, nearly nine times its weekly Bitcoin purchase expenditure. Bitcoin traded near $81,000 on October 18, keeping Strategy’s holdings above their reported average acquisition cost. In an October 18 post on X, the Strategy co-founder wrote, “We found room for more orange,” alongside a chart showing the company’s Bitcoin buying history. The message suggested further accumulation but did not disclose a transaction amount, purchase date or confirmation of an executed trade.
Strategy’s latest official report, released October 12, showed that the company had purchased 250 BTC for 21.5millionduringtheweekendingOctober11.Ithadspentconsiderablymore—192.4 million—buying back its STRC preferred shares during the same period.
Bitcoin was trading near $81,000 on October 18, according to CoinGecko, placing the market price above Strategy’s reported average Bitcoin acquisition cost of $75,444.
Saylor hints at another Bitcoin purchase without confirming a deal Saylor’s Sunday post continued his practice of publishing charts showing Strategy’s Bitcoin transactions, with purchases represented by orange markers.
His message did not say how many coins the company might acquire or whether an additional transaction had already taken place.
The latest confirmed ownership figure remains 848,250 BTC, according to the company’s October 12 regulatory disclosure, covering activity through October 11.
Strategy’s purchases can be funded through several sources, including sales of common shares, preferred stock offerings and available company cash.
A new chart or social media message, however, does not establish that a transaction has been completed. Confirmation normally comes through the company’s financial disclosures, which identify the number of Bitcoin acquired, total spending and the resulting balance. Earlier this month, Saylor shared a similar message before the company announced its next weekly transactions.
On October 4, he posted another accumulation chart with the words “More orange than ever,” while Strategy’s latest disclosed Bitcoin holdings stood at 847,666 BTC. Crypto.news previously covered the October teaser, which followed a confirmed purchase of 1,665 BTC during the preceding reporting period. The October 18 post comes after Strategy released another set of figures showing a smaller weekly Bitcoin acquisition and substantial preferred-share repurchases.
A new filing covering purchases after October 11 would be needed to determine whether the latest message preceded an actual transaction.
In its October 12 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Strategy reported purchasing 250 BTC between October 5 and October 11.
The company spent approximately $21.5 million on those coins, paying an average of $86,194 per Bitcoin, including fees and expenses. Following that purchase, total holdings reached 848,250 BTC. Strategy reported aggregate acquisition costs of approximately $64 billion and an average purchase price of $75,444 per coin.
The holding represents roughly 4.04% of Bitcoin’s maximum supply of 21 million coins. That comparison uses Bitcoin’s fixed maximum issuance, not the number of coins currently circulating or available on exchanges. Strategy funded $21 million of the latest purchase using proceeds from sales of its Class A common stock, MSTR. Another $500,000 came from existing company cash.
The company sold 125,183 MSTR shares during the week, generating approximately $21 million in net proceeds. Its filing showed that approximately $18.81 billion of MSTR shares remained available for future issuance and sale under its existing at-the-market program as of October 11.
The availability of that issuance capacity does not mean the company has already sold those shares or committed the proceeds to Bitcoin purchases. Strategy’s reported average cost of $75,444 remains below Bitcoin’s October 18 market price. CoinGecko placed BTC at approximately $81,059 during the market check, with its 24-hour trading range running from $80,823 to $82,178.
At that price, multiplying 848,250 BTC by $81,059 gives an indicative portfolio value of approximately $68.76 billion. Compared with its reported $64 billion acquisition cost, the difference is around $4.76 billion before accounting for other company financial obligations, taxes or valuation adjustments. Those estimates depend on the market price used for the calculation and are not equivalent to Strategy’s company-level net profit.
STRC buybacks exceed latest Bitcoin spending Although Strategy continued buying Bitcoin during the week ending October 11, most of the spending disclosed across its Bitcoin acquisitions and preferred-share repurchases went toward STRC.
The company bought back 1,932,145 shares of its Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock for approximately $192.4 million. That compares with the $21.5 million spent purchasing Bitcoin during the same seven-day reporting period.
Dividing the two amounts shows that the STRC repurchase was approximately 8.95 times the value of the Bitcoin purchase. The comparison covers two disclosed transactions, not all of Strategy’s corporate spending. STRC is one of several preferred-stock instruments issued by Strategy to raise capital and finance its operations. The security pays variable dividends, creating ongoing financial obligations for the company.
Repurchasing preferred shares can reduce the number of outstanding securities on which Strategy must make future dividend payments.
However, the October 12 filing does not establish that management chose to repurchase STRC specifically because its yield had reached 12.31%, as asserted in the supplied report. Strategy’s previous weekly capital allocation report covered the same $192.4 million buyback alongside the acquisition of 250 BTC.
A subsequent analysis of its share repurchases examined the distinction between funds used to buy cryptocurrency and those used to manage the company’s preferred-stock obligations.
According to the company’s official filing, approximately $354.8 million remained authorized under its digital credit securities repurchase program after the latest transactions. An additional $1 billion authorization remained available under its separate MSTR common-stock repurchase program. Neither authorization represents a completed transaction. The amounts establish the remaining capacity under the announced programs.
Strategy retains $5.52 billion in dollar assets Alongside its cryptocurrency holdings and preferred-share repurchases, Strategy reported substantial dollar-denominated assets. As of October 11, its designated USD Reserve totaled $4.88 billion, while other USD Cash stood at $640.5 million.
Combined, those balances equaled approximately $5.52 billion. The company’s filings describe the USD Reserve as money maintained to support preferred-stock dividends and interest payments on outstanding debt. Its separate USD Cash balance serves a different purpose, supporting general Bitcoin treasury activities, possible Bitcoin acquisitions, reserve additions and other capital-management uses.
During the October 5–11 period, Strategy used $500,000 of USD Cash to supplement the proceeds from common-stock sales used to purchase Bitcoin. The filing does not indicate that the entire combined $5.52 billion is intended for new Bitcoin acquisitions. The company had previously reported using part of its available cash to repurchase preferred shares, making its capital position dependent on more than the size of its Bitcoin holdings.
In related corporate treasury activity, an October 14 comparison of share buybacks examined how Strategy and Japanese Bitcoin holder Metaplanet were managing purchases of their own securities alongside cryptocurrency exposure. Strategy’s October 12 filing specified that $17.51 billion of STRC shares remained available for issuance and sale under its at-the-market offering program.
It reported no STRC shares sold during the latest week, while its common-stock sales supplied nearly all the funding for the newly acquired 250 BTC. The company ended that reporting period with $640.5 million in general-purpose USD Cash and $4.88 billion in its designated reserve.
Babylon Labs navrhuje integraci, která by držitelům BTC umožnila půjčovat si stablecoiny prostřednictvím Aave V4, aniž by museli používat zabalené tokeny nebo přesouvat BTC z bitcoinové sítě.
Babylon Labs has introduced a governance proposal that would allow Bitcoin holders to borrow stablecoins through Aave without moving their BTC off the Bitcoin blockchain. If advanced, this initiative could expand Aave, a leading decentralized finance (DeFi) lending platform, by offering direct Bitcoin-backed lending without the need for wrapped tokens.
Taproot Vaults to Enable Native Bitcoin CollateralThe proposal, published on October 14, details an integration using Babylon’s Trustless Bitcoin Vaults (TBVs) to link native Bitcoin with Aave V4’s Ethereum-based system. Instead of relying on wrapped Bitcoin, users would lock their BTC in Taproot-enabled outputs directly on the Bitcoin network.
Once locked, a corresponding record would be reflected within Aave V4, permitting users to access stablecoin liquidity without bridging assets to Ethereum. The system employs two core elements: the Babylon Spoke, which manages borrowing against BTC, and the BTC Vault Swap Spoke, responsible for liquidations and settlements.
Because Aave’s lending pools require ERC-20 tokens as collateral, the integration generates a restricted accounting token to represent users’ Bitcoin vaults in Aave. However, this token cannot be traded or freely transferred like standard wrapped BTC assets.
Mini dictionary: Babylon Labs is a blockchain research and development company focused on expanding the utility of Bitcoin through innovations such as trustless staking vaults and decentralized finance integrations.
Babylon has promoted on-chain BTC utility before, notably with its staking infrastructure—since August 2024, it reports over 100,000 Bitcoin cumulatively staked in its vaults, signaling demand for advanced Bitcoin-based financial products.
Babylon Foundation, in its governance documents, indicated that its TBV system allows users to gain liquidity from Aave without forfeiting custody or relying on wrapped assets, offering a way to participate in DeFi while retaining native BTC ownership.
Governance and Security MechanismsAs the proposal moves past an initial community review, governance concerns have emerged over how emergency mechanisms will affect user access. On October 16, an Aave governance member questioned whether Babylon’s emergency settings could delay or prevent collateral withdrawals, despite the Bitcoin itself remaining secure in its Taproot vault.
Babylon engineer Aleksa Opacic clarified that these emergency stops would not move or release any BTC from vaults, but could temporarily suspend withdrawals, repayments, and liquidations to maintain platform stability during critical situations.
The system would rely on a four-of-seven multisignature governance group plus a separate three-of-five emergency guardian team. Contract upgrades would be subject to a five-day grace period, while emergency pauses could take effect immediately.
A Babylon engineer emphasized that while the native BTC collateral remains secure, emergency protocols might temporarily restrict access to borrowers during periods of volatility or risk assessment.
Security measures of this kind have drawn scrutiny within the DeFi space, as real-world incidents involving liquidations and collateral control underscore the importance of robust on-chain governance and transparency.
Revenue Sharing and Competitive LandscapeThe proposal also lays out a revenue-sharing model between Aave DAO and the Babylon Foundation. Under the plan, Aave would receive the first $500,000 in qualifying annual revenue from the Bitcoin-backed lending feature. Earnings above that threshold would be divided among Aave, Babylon, and token-purchase pools based on a sliding scale.
Annual RevenueAave ShareBabylon ShareToken Purchase AllocationUp to $500,000100%0%0%$500,000–$1,000,00060%30%10%Above $1,000,00050%25%25%As revenue grows, portions of these funds would be used to purchase AAVE and BABY tokens from the market. Still, the framework does not guarantee minimum demand for the product or required token acquisitions.
This development aligns with Aave’s ongoing expansion of version 4 of its lending protocol, as well as increased institutional and platform interest in direct Bitcoin-backed lending.
Competitor platforms like Strike also offer Bitcoin-secured loans, highlighting how different providers are balancing the need for liquidity with the risks tied to collateral liquidation. The outcome of Aave’s governance process will determine whether this integration proceeds to implementation.
Zloději vyprázdnili tři adresy podvodníka využívajícího Ledger a odcizili více než 60 BTC v hodnotě přibližně 4,8 milionu USD získaných prostřednictvím podvodu s úkoly.
Thieves are draining nearly $5 million in Bitcoin (BTC) from a crypto scammer who profited from deceiving victims through a task scam.
Chainalysis says one of the biggest victims in the Ledger thefts was the scammer themselves.
“One of the biggest victims of the Ledger theft was a scammer themselves. They lost more than 60BTC, about $4.8M. The funds were from a task scam.”
The firm details how the scam operated by paying people to fake sales and reviews of real items before creating a negative balance that tricked victims into adding their own money.
“In this task scam, people were paid to fake sales and reviews of real items. Then a ‘negative balance’ appeared, and they were told to add their own money in order to get paid.”
On September 22nd, the scammer moved the proceeds into three separate Ledger addresses that thieves emptied on October 9th with one transfer each into the same wallet reported as containing stolen funds.
Criminals stole approximately $90 million in digital assets from cryptocurrency wallets last week by tampering with hardware wallets, small USB-like devices designed to securely store the keys used to access crypto holdings, reports the Financial Times.
Ledger said Thursday that organized criminals spent several months buying genuine Ledger devices, opening them and installing concealed components designed to capture users’ recovery phrases during setup. The tampered devices were then returned to circulation through resellers in Southeast Asia.
The attackers also built their own technical and logistical infrastructure, including servers to collect recovery phrases and systems to drain and launder stolen funds.
“They were patient, they spent millions and they struck in one coordinated operation, draining wallets.”
All affected devices were sold by CryptoBilis, a Malaysia-based reseller.
Zástupce ředitele CIA Michael Ellis uvedl, že bitcoin je pseudonymní, nikoli anonymní, a že americké zpravodajské služby využívají jeho transakce ke sledování protivníků USA.
Bitcoin was sold to many early adopters as digital cash that nobody could trace. The CIA’s second-in-command would like a word.
CIA Deputy Director Michael Ellis said in a May 1, 2025 podcast interview that Bitcoin is not truly anonymous, and that US intelligence uses it to collect information on adversaries. For anyone still treating the network as a privacy cloak, that is an awkward thing to hear from a spy agency.
What Ellis actually said Ellis described Bitcoin as “pseudonymous” rather than anonymous. The difference matters more than it sounds.
On Bitcoin, activity is tied to addresses rather than legal names. Ellis’s point is that the gap between an address and a real person can be closed, and authorities are working to close it.
According to Ellis, that gap is what lets US authorities follow illicit activity connected to adversaries. He named drug cartels and terrorist organizations as examples of the groups whose crypto use can be tracked.
“We can disrupt our adversaries’ use of it and we can use these technologies to collect more intelligence.”
That one sentence covers two separate jobs. One is defensive: interfering with how hostile groups move money. The other is offensive: treating the transactions themselves as a source of intelligence.
Ellis also placed Bitcoin inside a broader technology competition with countries like China. In his framing, crypto is one more front in a contest over which nations master emerging tech.
He also pointed to growing institutional adoption and offered a blunt assessment: “Bitcoin is here to stay.”
How we got here Ellis was sworn in as CIA Deputy Director on February 10, 2025. His podcast remarks came less than three months into the job.
The views are not new inside the intelligence community. Former Acting CIA Director Michael Morell praised blockchain analytics tools like Chainalysis in a 2021 analysis, crediting them with helping efforts against illicit finance.
The CIA also works with law enforcement to trace illicit payments made with digital assets. Ellis’s comments put a more public face on that cooperation.
Blockchain analytics firms essentially do pattern recognition at scale. They cluster addresses, map flows between them, and flag links to known entities, turning a stream of pseudonymous transactions into something closer to a readable map.
What this means for Bitcoin holders and the market The most direct implication is for privacy expectations. Anyone who assumed Bitcoin transactions were invisible to governments now has a CIA official stating plainly that they are not.
For bad actors, the message is sharper. A senior official is publicly signaling that the agency treats their transactions as an intelligence feed.
The CIA’s framing of Bitcoin as a national security tool may lift institutional confidence and potentially strengthen its standing with the public and regulators. An asset the intelligence community expects to persist, and is actively building capabilities around, is harder to dismiss as a passing fad.
The China framing deserves attention too. Once a technology gets folded into great-power competition, policy around it tends to be shaped by security priorities as much as by financial regulators.
The practical takeaway for market participants is to separate two questions that often get blurred. Whether Bitcoin is here to stay, as Ellis put it, is one question, and whether using it is private is another, and the CIA’s answer to the second is clearly no.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Flash Mixer přidal server MCP, který AI agentům umožňuje vytvářet a sledovat objednávky míchání bitcoinů. Odeslání BTC i získání přístupového klíče však stále vyžaduje zásah člověka.
AI agents can now order a Bitcoin mix. Flash Mixer, launched this year, has added an MCP server, the plug-in standard that AI apps such as Claude Desktop use to call outside tools.
In an October 15 report, blockchain analytics firm Elliptic said it is the first mixer it has found doing so.
Read Flash Mixer’s own setup guide, though, and the agent turns out to need a human at both ends. The access key is issued only after its owner places a manual order on the website and pays for it. Even with the key, the guide’s sample workflow hands the decisive step back to a person: “user sends BTC.”
AT A GLANCE
What it is: A Bitcoin mixing service launched in 2026, reachable by website, Telegram bot, Tor, and now MCP.
What’s new: Five tools that let an AI agent check fees, create mixing orders and track payouts.
What still needs a person: Getting the access key, and sending the bitcoin.
What nobody knows yet: How much, if anything, agents have mixed through it.
What can an agent actually do with it?
Flash Mixer’s integration guide on GitHub lists five tools. One returns the current pool limits, fee ranges and payout delays. A second works out how much bitcoin to send to receive a given amount. A third creates the order: the agent chooses the standard or premium pool, a fee percentage, and one or two payout addresses, each with its own delay of up to 72 hours. The last two check whether the deposit has arrived and how the payouts are progressing.
The guide includes ready-made configuration for Claude Desktop and PyCharm’s AI Assistant. Every order comes back with its own deposit address and an order ID. There are no customer accounts, so that ID is the only handle anyone has on the order.
1Check limits and fees. The agent reads the current pool settings and BTC/USD rate.
2Calculate the amount to send. Fees are added on top of what the payout addresses should receive.
3Create the order. Flash Mixer returns a fresh deposit address and an order ID.
4Someone sends the bitcoin. None of the five tools can do this. The guide leaves it to the user.
5Track the payouts. The agent polls the order until both payouts complete.
Why can’t the agent just pay?
Nothing in the toolset can sign a Bitcoin transaction. The server never touches a wallet. It hands back an address and waits for coins to arrive.
Getting connected in the first place also takes a human. According to the guide, the MCP key appears once on the status page of a paid manual order, after the deposit reaches three confirmations, and isn’t shown again. So the first mix through Flash Mixer is done by a person, not a model. The documentation is rough in places: its closing notes describe ordering and status checks as “no-key capabilities,” contradicting the authentication section a few screens earlier.
The footprint is small so far. When we checked the GitHub repository on October 17, it had 18 stars and four forks. There is no public data on how many orders have come through the MCP route.
So where is the gap?
In the agent’s wallet. Flash Mixer doesn’t need a payment integration of its own. An agent that has the Flash Mixer tools and a wallet that will pay any address already has everything it needs: step three produces an address, and the wallet pays it.
That deposit address is new for every order. A wallet that blocks known mixer addresses won’t recognise it, because nobody has seen it before. The rule that does stop the payment works the other way round: the agent may only pay addresses on an approved list, and anything new goes to a person.
Spending caps alone don’t close the gap. MoonPay’s PayBox for ChatGPT and Claude lets users approve each payment or let an agent spend on its own within set limits, according to its launch announcement. A limit decides how much an agent can spend. A small payment to a brand-new mixer address fits under almost any cap.
If you’ve given an agent a wallet
Let it pay only addresses you’ve approved. A new address should need your sign-off every time.
Treat MCP servers like browser extensions. Install only ones you’ve read, and note which can create orders or move money.
Log which tool call produced each payment address, so you can trace where a destination came from.
Keep the wallet balance to what the agent needs for its current task, not everything you hold.
Is there a legitimate reason for an agent to mix coins?
Yes, and Elliptic makes the case itself. An agent pays for what it needs as it works, far more often than a person would, and on a public blockchain every one of those payments is visible. Picture an agent buying specialist datasets for a research team. Once its wallet is tied to the company, anyone watching can see the suppliers, the budget and what the team is working on.
Elliptic’s answer is privacy that can be proven on request. Privacy Pools, run by 0xbow, screens deposits before admitting them and lets users later prove their withdrawal came from an approved set without revealing which deposit was theirs. The Ethereum Foundation’s Kohaku wallet includes privacy pool functionality. Flash Mixer’s guide offers nothing of the kind.
Treating every mixer as the same risk gets it wrong in both directions. Tornado Cash came off the US sanctions list in 2025, yet Elliptic’s research found that over the past six months, a third of deposits into its 100 ETH pool drew more than half their funds from illicit sources.
Why does Elliptic think agents change laundering?
Scripted laundering repeats itself: the same hops in the same order, a pattern monitoring rules learn to spot. An agent given a goal picks its own route, choosing which services to use, how to split the funds and when to move them, and does it differently each run. Elliptic says that makes agents harder to monitor than conventional automation, and warns they could break funds into many small, fast “micromixes.”
Volume is the other concern. Elliptic said in September that agentic crypto payments had risen 500% in three months, and argues that human review alone can’t keep up. That view comes from a company that sells blockchain analytics and uses the report to promote its own agent-based compliance tools. The report cites no instance of an agent laundering money through Flash Mixer.
Quick answers
Can an AI agent mix bitcoin on its own?
Not with Flash Mixer’s documented tools alone. They can price and create an order, but sending the bitcoin needs a wallet the agent has separately been allowed to use, and the access key itself requires a paid manual order first.
What is an MCP server?
A connection point that lets AI apps such as Claude Desktop find and call outside tools. The MCP specification recommends that apps show tool activity and let users refuse calls, but leaves the details to each app.
This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial or investment advice.
Author
Alexander Zdravkov is a market analyst and crypto journalist with interests in economics, broader financial markets and digital assets.
His journey into crypto began more than four years ago, driven by a fascination with the rapid evolution of blockchain technology and the transformative potential of decentralized finance. He began analyzing market cycles and identifying emerging trends before they reach the mainstream.
He holds a degree in International Relations - a background that helped shape his broader perspective on global economics, geopolitics, and the interconnected nature of modern financial markets.
Whether covering the latest developments in the crypto sector or exploring broader macroeconomic themes, Alexander focuses on giving readers context rather than simply repeating headlines.
During his career, he has authored more than 5,000 articles covering cryptocurrencies, traditional finance, and global market developments. His work spans everything from Bitcoin and altcoins to macroeconomic trends influencing risk assets worldwide.
TD Cowen zvýšila cílovou cenu společnosti Strive (ASST) o 27 % na 56 USD poté, co firma navýšila své držby na 35 595 BTC, což je více, než původně očekávala za celé čtvrtletí.
TD Cowen increased its price target on Strive, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASST) by about 27 percent, from $44 to $56, while retaining a Buy rating. Analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete cited the firm’s bitcoin buying activity, which has already surpassed their projected total for the full fourth quarter after only a brief period of acquisitions.
Strive’s bitcoin holdings advanced to 35,595 BTC, valued at roughly $2.9 billion at prevailing prices, from 28,000 BTC at the end of September. The nearly 7,600-coin increase exceeded the prior estimate of 4,750 BTC for the entire quarter.
Reported purchases included 3,311 BTC acquired at an average price near $84,500 (inclusive of fees) and a follow-on buy of 2,822 BTC at approximately $83,266 per coin.
These steps moved Strive into fourth place among publicly traded companies ranked by bitcoin treasury size, just ahead of MARA Holdings’ reported holdings of about 35,577 BTC.
The quicker pace of accumulation continues a strategy in which Strive finances purchases primarily through preferred equity instruments rather than conventional debt.
The company has maintained a debt-free balance sheet for an extended period, using preferred share sales and related capital markets tools to grow its bitcoin position while seeking to improve bitcoin ownership on a per-share basis.
Concurrently, Strive priced an expanded preferred share offering.
It issued 7 million shares of its 15.00 percent Series A Perpetual SATS Preferred Stock at $90 per share, two million shares more than initially planned.
Gross proceeds are projected at approximately $630 million before underwriting discounts and expenses, with settlement expected on October 20 subject to standard conditions.
The shares accrue a cumulative 15 percent annual dividend based on a $100 stated amount and are payable daily when declared by the board, with regular payments set to begin in early November.
At the $90 offering price, the effective yield stands near 16.7 percent.
The security ranks junior to Strive’s existing variable-rate SATA preferred shares.
Upon closing, the company intends to place the equivalent of 18 months of dividend payments—roughly $22.50 per share—into a reserve funded by cash and securities.
Net proceeds are allocated to general corporate purposes, including additional bitcoin and bitcoin-related product purchases, working capital needs, income-generating assets, and potential repurchases of common or preferred shares.
The preferred structure allows further bitcoin accumulation without issuing additional common stock, thereby limiting dilution for current shareholders while the reserve supports near-term dividend coverage.
Rapid treasury expansion paired with this form of non-common financing has strengthened the outlook for bitcoin-per-share growth, a central factor in how analysts value public treasury companies.
With bitcoin trading in the low-to-mid $80,000 range during mid-October 2026, Strive’s larger holdings and new capital access support continued competition in the public-company ranking, where Strategy holds the leading position by a substantial margin.
Observers will track the October 20 settlement of the SATS offering and subsequent bitcoin purchases to assess whether the accelerated buying continues for the remainder of the quarter.
The TD Cowen revision demonstrates how stronger-than-expected treasury execution can prompt higher analyst targets even amid relatively steady broader bitcoin market conditions.
Have a crowdfunding offering you'd like to share? Submit an offering for consideration using our Submit a Tip form and we may share it on our site!
Coinbase, která spravuje zhruba 5 % celkové nabídky bitcoinů, představila technické priority pro víceletý postupný přechod na postkvantové podpisy a flexibilní formáty bitcoinových výstupů.
Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) has released a detailed set of technical priorities aimed at guiding Bitcoin’s shift toward quantum-resistant security.
In a blog post dated October 13, 2026, the digital assets focused firm emphasized the need for proactive steps on signature scheme upgrades and the gradual relocation of funds, noting that both consensus changes and ecosystem-wide migrations can require multiple years of coordinated effort.
As a custodian holding roughly 5 percent of the total bitcoin supply, Coinbase stated that it is already adapting its own infrastructure while engaging with Bitcoin developers and researchers.
It also contributes engineering resources and participates in the Bitcoin Security Consortium to support related open-source work.
The post is framed as input for community discussion rather than a finalized company position or an announced upgrade path.
The exchange has also stressed that defending the network against future cryptographically relevant quantum computers (CRQCs) extends well beyond simply selecting a new digital signature algorithm.
A workable plan, it argued, must safeguard both funds whose public keys are already visible on-chain and newly created outputs, operate within Bitcoin’s constrained block space, allow full nodes to validate transactions independently, remain compatible with institutional custody systems and ordinary wallets, and offer a realistic route for coins whose owners cannot or will not move them.
Central to Coinbase’s recommendations is the idea of decoupling the output “container” that holds funds from the specific signature scheme used to authorize spending.
Such separation would let post-quantum algorithms be added, swapped, or combined later without redesigning the underlying structure.
The company pointed to constructions such as P2MR (associated with BIP-360) and P2TRv2 as designs that appear to provide this flexibility by keeping public keys hidden until they are needed and leaving room for future signature options.
For the transition period itself, Coinbase favors staged protection.
Active wallets could begin using post-quantum-capable or hybrid formats before any final rules governing older signature types are settled.
One example discussed is a 1-of-2 arrangement in which the same funds support two alternative spending paths—one authorized by a classical ECDSA or Schnorr key and another by a post-quantum key—allowing users to retain familiar methods in the near term while gaining quantum resistance when required.
On the choice of signature algorithms, the post called for a reproducible evaluation process tailored specifically to Bitcoin’s constraints.
General-purpose cryptographic comparisons developed for internet protocols do not map directly, because Bitcoin signatures are stored permanently and verified by every full node.
Suggested candidates include finalized standards such as ML-DSA and SLH-DSA, FN-DSA once standardized, and more compact alternatives such as SHRINCS.
Coinbase also warned that stateful schemes, while potentially smaller or faster, carry the risk that improper state management could enable forgery; therefore any support for them should include reliable stateless fallbacks, along with clear security requirements for wallets and custody providers.
Additional practical considerations include consensus-level limits on signature and script sizes to keep transaction costs manageable, low-friction formats that ordinary users and hardware wallets can adopt, and compatibility with multi-party computation techniques used in institutional custody.
Questions surrounding abandoned or inaccessible coins—those whose private keys are lost or whose owners do not migrate—were described as important but separate.
Coinbase suggested these governance and engineering issues can be debated in parallel so they do not delay the core technical work of adding post-quantum signature support.
Overall, the priorities underscore that preparation must begin well before any announcement of a functional CRQC, because the combination of protocol upgrades, wallet software changes, and user migration across a decentralized network cannot be completed on short notice.
By focusing on flexible designs, staged adoption, rigorous Bitcoin-specific testing, and separation of the abandoned-coin debate, Coinbase aims to contribute to an orderly, multi-year transition that protects both existing and future funds while preserving the network’s ability to operate and validate independently.
Podíl převodů BTC na burzy ze strany držitelů, kteří je drželi 6 až 12 měsíců, klesl ze 40,4 % na 4,4 %. Dvě transakce velryb přesunuly 3 766 BTC v hodnotě přibližně 307,1 mil. USD.
Bitcoin old holders who purchased their coins six to twelve months ago have now considerably reduced their exchange-bound transfers. In fact, according to CryptoQuant insights, the holders’ share of exchange-bound transfers fell from 40.4% on 17th June to 4.4% on 15th October.
On the contrary, broader BTC movement increased despite a reduction in exchange-bound activity among these holders. To be specific, the latest 30-day transfer volume hit 205,400 BTC, compared to the 157,700 BTC in June.
The figures might allude to a shift in how older investors move their holdings.
Additionally, a fall in exchange participation could mean weaker immediate selling pressure from this particular investor group.
Source: CryptoQuant
Beyond declining exchange activity, two major Bitcoin whale transactions introduced another development to the supply outlook of the market.
Whale Alert on X reported a transfer of 2,878 BTC, valued at nearly $234.28 million, between two unknown wallets. Separately, another whale withdrew 888 BTC, worth roughly $72.82 million, from crypto exchange Kraken.
Combined, these two transactions totalled 3,766 BTC, carrying a value of approximately $307.1 million.
Here, it is also worth noting that unlike the transfer between unknown wallets, the Kraken withdrawal minimized the exchange’s BTC holdings directly.
The transactions were in alignment with the wider decline in exchange-bound activity among older Bitcoin holders.
Spot netflows reveal contrasting story
Bitcoin’s broader spot exchange activity, however, presented a different picture from the latest whale withdrawal.
According to CoinGlass, BTC was recording a positive spot netflow of $18.65 million at press time. These figures suggested that the exchange inflows exceeded the withdrawals during the reporting period.
The aggregate figure pointed towards a net increase in exchange-held BTC, unlike the Kraken transaction. Usually, such movements can increase the available selling supply, especially when market participants transfer tokens onto the trading platforms.
The positive netflows, however, alone cannot establish whether holders intended to sell their tokens or not.
Furthermore, the recent reading also contrasted with the falling exchange-bound share among six-to-twelve-month BTC holders.
Therefore, these conflicting values could expose Bitcoin’s immediate supply conditions to a mixed state ahead of its next price direction.
Source: BTC Spot Netflows on CoinGlass
Can Bitcoin hold above $80K support?
At the time of writing, Bitcoin [BTC] was valued at around $81,542 after struggling to sustain its recovery towards $87,333. In fact, the subsequent correction pushed BTC closer to the psychological $80,000-support, even though the token had not yet tested that level.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator stood at -0.14, hinting at persistent capital outflows and prevailing selling pressure. The RSI indicator, on the hand, stood at 46.42, below its moving average of 52.95, validating the weakening price strength.
Simply put, BTC might be vulnerable to further declines towards $80,000, with both indicators favoring sellers
Finally, Binance’s Liquidation Heatmap revealed clusters around that support zone, alluding to a potential target before a price recovery.
Ultimately, Bitcoin could likely grab these liquidity concentrations before rebounding towards the $83,895 resistance before a move to $87,333.
Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView
Final Summary
Bitcoin’s older holders reduced exchange transfers as recent whale accumulation transactions exceeded $307 million.
BTC could likely sweep liquidations clusters around the $80K support before attempting a recovery.
Michael Saylor na akci ParaFi Investor Day označil Bitcoin za „digitální kapitál“ a spojil strategii společnosti Strategy s úpravou preferenční akcie STRC a plánem denních dividend, který podléhá souhlasu akcionářů.
Michael Saylor, co-founder of Strategy Inc., presented Bitcoin as “digital capital” to investors at ParaFi Investor Day, focusing on the recovery of Strategy’s STRC preferred stock and the shift to daily dividends. Saylor highlighted the potential for Bitcoin to underpin a credit model, leveraging STRC’s dividend structure and buybacks. The presentation aimed to position STRC securities within a broader Bitcoin-backed financial strategy, although the transition to daily dividends remains contingent on shareholder approval.
Key Takeaways
Michael Saylor’s presentation appears consistent with supporting a YES outcome for STRC hitting $100, emphasizing Bitcoin’s role as digital capital.
Market pricing suggests increased confidence, with the December 31 sub-market showing 80.7% support for STRC reaching $100.
The move to daily dividends and STRC’s recovery to par value are central to Strategy’s financial strategy, though contingent on shareholder approval.
What to Watch
Markets will closely monitor any announcements from Strategy regarding shareholder approval for daily dividends, which could further support the YES scenario for STRC reaching $100. Additionally, any strategic Bitcoin acquisitions by Strategy could serve as key indicators of confidence in the underlying asset. Watch for updates on STRC’s dividend plans, as these may influence market perceptions and pricing dynamics.
Arthur Hayes, CIO of crypto-focused Maelstrom Fund, believes the AI bubble will eventually burst, and it will be uber bullish for Bitcoin.
In a recent interview with Luke Martin, Hayes said,
AI is a waste of money. The bigger the AI bubble grows, the bigger the bailout will be, and the higher Bitcoin goes.
According to him, Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX are all backed by the U.S government, but none of them makes money. Hayes foresees a “perfect time for crypto” if the AI bubble bursts.
Put simply, the bailout will mean more government money printing, higher inflation, and investors fleeing to stores of value (SoV) such as gold and Bitcoin. This is popularly known as the debasement trade.
Interestingly, BTC showed resilience this week and defended $80K despite a 2x-5x broader sell-off across AI/chipmakers and tech stocks.
Source: Google Finance (as of market close on October 16th)
AI bubble: Bitcoin upside meets quantum risk
Delphi Research and Fidelity echoed a similar bullish outlook. For his part, Ceteris Paribus, the pseudonymous Head of Research at Delphi, noted,
Getting quite bullish internet monies. Debasement from current debt situation + AI Ponzi bailout equal BTC flows.
An AI bailout will likely add to U.S fiscal debt and growing investors’ concerns. For perspective, U.S fiscal debt currently stands at $40.3T and is growing regardless of which party is in office.
This has since triggered rising bond yields. According to Fidelity, this could worsen the U.S debt situation and further make the case for BTC.
The asset manager also said that the correlation between BTC and 10-year bond yields hit a record high of 0.6 in 2026. The yields rose by 10% in the past two months, and BTC surged by +30% over the same period.
In other words, rising bond yields will likely send BTC higher if the correlation extends.
If current debt and rate trends persist, it may not be long before the interest expense becomes the largest line item in the federal budget, further elevating focus on alternative stores of value
Source: Fidelity
Still, Bitcoin’s quantum threat is intensifying with AI advancement and Google’s breakthroughs in quantum computers. For Ceteris, this could cap the expected BTC upside from the debasement trade.
I think BTC will do quite well, but it won’t be the only SoV in the arena like it was a few years ago. Debasement bullish, but quantum will keep a cap on upside.
In the meantime, U.S Spot BTC ETFs bled another $228M this week, marking the second week of outflows in October. Still, this week’s capitulation showed cooling profits that may mark another bottom at $80K, as per Glassnode.
Source: Glassnode
Final Summary
AI bubble burst, and a likely bailout could trigger a debasement trade-driven BTC rally.
Delphi Research cautioned that BTC’s upside could be capped by quantum risk.
Bitcoin se držel kolem 81 500 USD, zatímco americká spotová ETF na bitcoin během prvních 12 říjnových obchodních seancí zaznamenala čistý odliv 614,7 milionu USD.
Bitcoin enters the final weeks of October near $82,000 after a brief fall below $80,000. The October 28 Federal Reserve decision, uneven demand for U.S. spot funds and November inflation data will help determine whether the recovery survives. A forecast requires conditions for both gains and losses, not a single number detached from the evidence.
Summary
Bitcoin traded near $81,500 on October 17 after briefly dipping below $80,000 this week. September U.S. inflation reached 3.7% annually, up from 3.4% in August. U.S. spot Bitcoin funds lost a net $614.7 million across October’s first 12 trading sessions, based on Farside’s daily totals. The Fed meets October 27 and 28, before U.S. jobs data on November 6 and inflation data on November 10. A move from $82,000 to $90,000 requires a 9.8% gain; a drop to $75,000 would be an 8.5% loss. Bitcoin has traded around $81,500 on October 17, having recovered from a move below $80,000 during the week. CoinGlass market data put the 24 hour change near negative 0.7% when checked for this article. A live price can move before publication, so the scenarios below use $82,000 as a rounded reference point, not a claim about the exact execution price available to a reader.
The Federal Reserve’s calendar places its next policy decision on October 28. Inflation has complicated the choice: the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September CPI release put annual headline inflation at 3.7%. November will bring new employment and consumer price readings, giving investors evidence on whether the October decision was the start of another tightening phase or a single step. The price outlook therefore has two clocks: what markets expect before the meeting, and what the incoming data say afterward.
JUST IN: Bitcoin posts its strongest quarter since 2017 with a 43% Q3 gain
The rally now faces tougher conditions as Treasury yields climb above 5%, although weaker US jobs data has cut the odds of another Fed rate hike in October. pic.twitter.com/St18atn53Y
— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) October 6, 2026 Bitcoin’s October recovery has a weak demand backdrop The starting point is less reassuring than the bounce suggests. Bitcoin slipped below $80,000 and subsequently recovered above $82,000 on October 16. A separate October 16 price assessment at crypto.news placed the market near $81,400 and noted the sequence of lower local highs. Clearing a level intraday is different from sustaining buying through several sessions, especially when the same area has served as both support and resistance.
October’s price movement followed several conflicting signals. U.S. spot Bitcoin funds began the month with two positive sessions, then recorded substantial withdrawals on October 7 and 8. The October 7 fund outflow reached $484.9 million, the largest daily exit since June at the time. October 13 brought $175.7 million back, but October 14 saw $261.4 million leave. Farside Investors’ daily fund table now records an $82.4 million withdrawal for October 16. Daily totals can be revised, and a net flow is not a direct measure of exchange spot purchases on that date.
Price and flow do not have to move together. Bitcoin trades continuously, while the U.S. ETF table reflects the close of an equity trading day. A buyer using an offshore exchange or a derivatives position can move the price while the fund complex loses assets. Authorized participants can acquire or deliver Bitcoin through creation and redemption processes that need not match a single hour of trading. Treating each positive close as proof that ETFs bought the rebound would assign a cause that the available figures cannot establish.
The October 14 CPI report added a macroeconomic complication. Headline consumer prices rose 0.6% during September, while the measure excluding food and energy rose 0.3%. Gasoline accounted for more than half of the monthly increase in the headline index, according to the BLS. Annual core inflation reached 2.6%, below the 3.7% headline reading but above August’s 2.4%. A reader looking only at the headline could miss that the sources of inflation are different; a reader looking only at core could miss the pressure that energy prices put on household spending and market rates.
Bitcoin’s drop after the CPI release left the market near $81,900 on October 14. The report recorded an increase in market-implied odds of an October rate increase after the inflation data, but those odds are a changing price of futures contracts, not a vote by the Fed. They should be checked again near the decision. Positioning against a policy announcement can make an otherwise ordinary price move violent when leveraged traders have crowded into one outcome.
JUST IN: Bitcoin jumps above $85,000 after softer U.S. inflation data
August core PCE rose 3% year-over-year versus 3.3% expected, while markets cut October Fed rate-hike odds, giving $BTC and other risk assets an immediate boost. pic.twitter.com/z1n9vm6GQJ
— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) September 30, 2026 The Fed decision is only the first date on November’s calendar On September 16, the Federal Open Market Committee raised its target by a quarter percentage point to 3.75% to 4%. The vote was unanimous. Its next scheduled meeting ends October 28 at 2 p.m. Eastern time, followed by a press conference at 2:30 p.m. The October meeting is not marked as one of the scheduled quarterly projection meetings on the Fed’s calendar, so investors should not assume it will include a new dot plot.
The September meeting minutes, released October 7, say most participants considered another increase likely to be appropriate by year end, while stressing that later decisions depended on incoming information. Year end leaves two meetings, October and December. The minutes do not commit the committee to October, and individual September projections are conditional judgments, not instructions to a future meeting. The September median projected policy rate at the end of 2026 was 4.1%, according to the Fed’s projection tables.
Bitcoin rallied after the September rate increase despite fund withdrawals during the decision window. An examination of buyers after the September hike found subsequent ETF demand and derivatives adjustment, showing why the rate announcement alone cannot explain the entire move. Traders had been preparing for the decision beforehand; the same announcement can lift or lower an asset depending on what was already priced in and what the chair says about future policy.
On October 28, the rate decision, statement, and press conference, should be read separately. A quarter point increase with language suggesting a pause would not carry the same implication as an increase followed by concern about more persistent inflation. A hold could still weigh on Bitcoin if officials signal another hike in December. Market prices respond to changes in expected policy paths, not simply to the label attached to one decision.
November’s scheduled releases will then test the Fed’s reading of the economy. The BLS calendar for November lists the October employment report for November 6, October CPI for November 10, and October producer prices for November 13. October CPI will arrive after the Fed meeting, meaning the committee cannot use that report to decide on October 28. It can still change expectations for the December 8 and 9 meeting. Figures and release dates should be rechecked at publication because government calendars can change.
The sequence allows a conditional outlook. An October decision followed by softer inflation and moderate employment growth could ease pressure on bond yields. A decision followed by stubborn inflation or a much stronger labor market could support expectations of more tightening. A weak jobs report is not automatically favorable for Bitcoin if it points to a broad economic shock that sends investors toward cash. None of the official releases predicts a Bitcoin price; they influence the rates and risk appetite against which Bitcoin trades.
Twelve ETF sessions show how much buying the recovery needs The distinguishing figure comes from adding the fund flows rather than citing a single large withdrawal. Farside’s U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF table lists daily totals, in millions of dollars, for the first 12 trading sessions of October: plus 102.7, plus 189.9, minus 89.8, plus 118.8, minus 484.9, minus 244.1, plus 21.1, minus 65.4, plus 175.7, minus 261.4, plus 5.1 and minus 82.4. Adding those published entries gives minus $614.7 million through October 16. The calculation uses the displayed one decimal place and may differ slightly if a provider later revises individual funds.
Across the same 12 sessions, positive days total $613.3 million and negative days total $1.228 billion after rounding the entries. Net outflows are therefore the result of several heavy selling days overwhelming the purchases, not the absence of any positive session. October 7 alone accounts for approximately 79% of the net withdrawal figure, a ratio obtained by dividing $484.9 million by $614.7 million. That ratio describes the arithmetic concentration of the monthly total, not an estimate that one day’s redemptions caused 79% of Bitcoin’s price change.
Four of the first 12 sessions show net gains above $100 million, while four show losses above $80 million. A small positive day does not erase a large negative day. For example, the $175.7 million gained on October 13 was smaller than the $261.4 million lost the next day; together they represent an $85.7 million withdrawal. October 15’s $5.1 million intake did little to counter the $82.4 million that left on October 16. These comparisons explain why a chart of alternating green and red bars can look balanced even when the month is firmly negative.
The calculation answers a narrower question than some headlines imply. It does not tell us how much Bitcoin was sold on exchanges, which participants bought any supply offered, or whether a fund’s holdings changed by the same dollar amount as its flow. Net flow is an accounting estimate for money entering or leaving the listed products. Assets under management fluctuate with Bitcoin’s price. Trading volume can surge even when net flow is zero, because shares can change hands between investors without new fund shares being created.
The starting imbalance creates an observable condition for November. A durable recovery supported by fund demand would require multiple positive sessions large enough to offset withdrawals, not merely a return to zero on one day. At the October 16 balance, a single $100 million intake would leave the October running total around $515 million negative if no other dates changed. Restoring the first 12 sessions to flat would require approximately $615 million of net additions in later sessions. The figure is an arithmetic hurdle for the month, not a threshold Bitcoin must clear to rise.
Fund flows could remain negative while direct spot buyers take the other side. Conversely, positive ETF totals could coexist with selling by long held wallets, corporate treasuries or miners. An October assessment of institutional demand quoted Bitget Wallet research lead Lacie Zhang saying institutional buying must absorb profit taking and miner sales for gains to hold. Her argument concerns the balance of buyers and sellers across venues, not an ETF flow target that guarantees a certain price.
BREAKING: Fed raises its benchmark interest rates for the first time since 2023
The Fed has raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4%, while 30-year mortgage rates have climbed to around 7.28%; persistent inflation, higher oil prices and geopolitical tensions are… pic.twitter.com/CXNUmqJqEf
— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) September 16, 2026 The price cases start from one reference point A November scenario needs an explicit starting value. This article uses $82,000, close to the market around the October 16 rebound, as a common reference. At that price, $85,000 is 3.7% higher; $87,500 is 6.7% higher; $90,000 is 9.8% higher; $95,000 is 15.9% higher. On the downside, $80,000 is 2.4% lower; $78,000 is 4.9% lower; and $75,000 is 8.5% lower. Each percentage is the difference from $82,000 divided by $82,000, rounded to one decimal place. They are arithmetic distances, not modeled probabilities or promised targets.
Recovery case: $87,500 to $95,000. Bitcoin would first need to regain the $84,200 area that traders identified as resistance in the October 16 chart analysis, then build on the move through the upper $80,000s. A sustained run of ETF inflows, stronger spot participation and less aggressive rate expectations after October 28 would support that case. The upper end requires a 15.9% rise from the reference, a material move in a month. The case weakens if ETF flows stay negative through a price rally or if the October 28 message and November 10 CPI push yields higher.
Range case: $78,000 to $87,500. Bitcoin could remain between the October downside area and the late September resistance zone if fund buying returns intermittently but cannot sustain itself. A Fed decision that changes little about December expectations, followed by mixed labor and inflation releases, would fit the setting. The breadth of the range is deliberate: from $82,000 it spans a 4.9% decline to a 6.7% gain. Calling this a base case does not mean assigning it a numerical probability. It describes the path when neither the buying evidence nor the policy evidence resolves decisively.
Downside case: $75,000 to $78,000. A break below $80,000 that persists through several daily closes, together with further ETF redemptions and renewed leverage liquidations, would bring lower price areas into view. A Fed message pointing to continued tightening, followed by another strong inflation print, would make the downside scenario more plausible. The range is an analytical boundary, not a claim that a particular exchange has a buy order at $75,000. A fall through the lower end would invalidate this bounded case and require a fresh analysis rather than a wider target invented after the event.
The ranges overlap at $78,000 and $87,500 because price can trade at a boundary without giving a reliable signal about the next month. Daily closes, participation and changes in flow would be more informative than a brief intraday touch. The upper case is invalidated by persistent selling and a failed recovery of the mid $80,000s; the downside case is invalidated by sustained inflows and a decisive move above resistance. New evidence can invalidate either scenario before November begins.
A pause in rates does not guarantee a Bitcoin rally The strongest argument for recovery is not simply that the Fed might hold rates. Inflation’s September jump was driven heavily by gasoline, while core prices rose more slowly over the year. If energy eases and the labor market weakens enough to limit further hikes without signaling recession, investors could reduce their expectations for future rates. Fund flows have turned around rapidly in earlier periods: after withdrawals around the September decision, demand returned in later sessions. The post hike market assessment from BitGo Research associated the recovery with spot fund demand, lower Treasury yields, softer oil and short covering. No single variable carried the whole explanation.
There is a counterweight. The September minutes show most Fed participants expected another increase by year end. September headline inflation at 3.7% was above August’s 3.4%, and core inflation rose to 2.6% from 2.4%. A pause in October might signal patience while officials wait for data, not the end of tightening. November CPI could reopen the debate almost immediately. Bitcoin can rise in anticipation of a pause and still lose ground if the accompanying statement points to a later hike.
Rate expectations have two effects that need separating. Higher Treasury yields can raise the appeal of interest paying assets relative to Bitcoin, which does not pay a coupon. The same yields can weaken demand for speculative risk across markets. Neither channel fixes Bitcoin’s price mechanically. Liquidity, leverage, international buying and crypto specific events can offset or magnify them. A neat historical average of returns around Fed meetings would miss differences in what investors anticipated before each event.
ETF demand presents a similar two sided argument. The products remain a substantial route for U.S. investors, and a few large positive days can reverse a negative running total. Yet the October arithmetic shows how easily one withdrawal can overwhelm multiple gains. Strong fund flows would improve the recovery case, but treating them as a sufficient condition ignores direct exchange sellers and the derivatives market. Weak flows would not prove that no buyer exists elsewhere. The honest disagreement is about the likely marginal buyer in November, not the existence of all other buyers.
Leverage can change the route without deciding the destination CoinGlass displayed roughly $52.4 billion of Bitcoin futures open interest and about $77 million of Bitcoin liquidations over 24 hours when checked on October 17. Those figures decay quickly and should be refreshed before publication. Open interest is the face value of outstanding positions, not the amount of capital that can be liquidated at once. Both a long and a short stand behind each futures contract; a rising total alone cannot tell the reader which side will win.
Funding rates and open interest together offer a better view of crowding, though neither is conclusive. Positive perpetual futures funding indicates longs are generally paying shorts on venues using that mechanism. If price rises alongside open interest and high positive funding, the move may depend more heavily on leveraged longs. If price rises while open interest falls, some of the gain may come from shorts closing. Spot volume and ETF flows would then help determine whether new cash replaced the departing positions.
The October selloff showed how forced unwinds can speed a move. Long liquidations cause exchanges to close positions according to their margin rules, creating market orders in a falling market. Subsequent short covering can make the rebound appear strong even before sustained spot demand returns. Neither event establishes a fair value for Bitcoin. Derivatives data help describe the path and fragility of a move, while the spot market and flows help assess whether it can persist.
A level such as $80,000 attracts attention partly because traders put orders and stops near round figures. No source can certify that every $80,000 touch is meaningful, and liquidation maps estimate potential pressure from displayed positions rather than commitments by every trader. A briefly broken level followed by recovery deserves different treatment from several closes below it. The same applies to a break above $85,000: a single futures driven spike is weaker evidence than several sessions accompanied by fund additions and spot volume.
The Fed release occurs during U.S. market hours, when the ETF shares trade and the underlying Bitcoin market remains open. The first ETF closing figure after the decision will provide one piece of evidence, but reporting time and creation mechanics can blur attribution. November 6 jobs data and November 10 CPI arrive before the U.S. market opens; Bitcoin can react overnight before fund shares resume trading. Comparing same time windows and the same quotation source matters when describing cause and effect.
The scenario boundaries have important limits The outlook is dated October 17. Bitcoin’s spot price, policy expectations, ETF flows and derivative positions can change substantially before October 28, let alone November 30. A scenario built around an $82,000 starting value must be recalculated if Bitcoin enters November at a very different price. The percentage distances are exact arithmetic from the chosen reference, but the chosen bands reflect observed market areas and conditional judgment. They are not statistical confidence intervals.
Neither a Fed decision nor a CPI release provides a stand alone Bitcoin forecast. Monetary policy can affect bond yields and the dollar, yet investors may have anticipated the change in advance. The September episode showed a hike and a subsequent rally; the October selloff showed inflation concerns alongside withdrawals and deleveraging. Assigning all price movement to the nearest macro headline would ignore the trading evidence.
ETF totals have reporting limits. Providers can differ in coverage, fund cutoff times and revisions. Farside’s table provides the 12 U.S. session inputs used here; an alternative tracker may show a slightly different monthly figure. Gross trading volume, net investor flow and changes in Bitcoin held by funds answer separate questions. None directly identifies the end investor, the seller on the other side or the moment the Bitcoin was acquired.
The projected $75,000 to $95,000 envelope deliberately includes different outcomes rather than implying that any one will occur. A new geopolitical shock, fund launch, regulatory decision, exchange disruption or corporate transaction could move the market outside it. Those events cannot be responsibly assigned a probability from the evidence assembled here. The next observable policy marker is the Fed’s October 28 statement; the next scheduled U.S. employment and inflation releases follow on November 6 and 10, according to the BLS calendar.
What to watch October 28 Fed statement and press conference: Compare the rate decision with the committee’s language about future increases at 2 p.m. and 2:30 p.m. Eastern. Daily U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows: Add the November sessions in Farside’s table and distinguish a multi day intake from a single positive close. The $80,000 and $84,200 price areas: Watch daily closes and trading participation around the recent downside and resistance zones, not just intraday touches. November 6 employment and November 10 CPI: Compare the actual releases with expectations and observe the response in yields as well as Bitcoin. Futures open interest and funding: Check whether a move in price is paired with new leveraged positions, short covering or a reduction in crowding. FAQ What is the Bitcoin price outlook for November 2026? From an $82,000 reference on October 17, the conditional recovery range is $87,500 to $95,000, the range case is $78,000 to $87,500, and the downside case is $75,000 to $78,000. None is a guaranteed target or a probability weighted forecast.
When is the next Fed decision? The Federal Open Market Committee meets October 27 and 28, 2026. Its statement is scheduled for 2 p.m. Eastern on October 28, followed by a press conference at 2:30 p.m.
Did the Fed raise rates in September 2026? Yes. On September 16, the Fed raised the target range by a quarter percentage point to 3.75% to 4%. Bitcoin’s subsequent price rise does not establish that the rate increase caused it.
How much did Bitcoin ETFs lose in early October? Adding Farside Investors’ daily U.S. spot fund totals for the 12 trading sessions from October 1 through October 16 gives approximately $614.7 million in net withdrawals. The figure can change if a provider revises its table.
Why does the $80,000 Bitcoin level matter? Bitcoin briefly traded below $80,000 before recovering during the October selloff. Repeated daily closes below the area, especially with withdrawals and long liquidations, would strengthen the downside case more than a brief intraday break.
Could Bitcoin reach $90,000 in November? A move from the article’s $82,000 reference to $90,000 would require a gain of about 9.8%. Sustained spot and fund demand, a recovery through resistance and less pressure from expected interest rates would support the recovery case; none guarantees that price.
What U.S. data arrive after the October Fed meeting? The BLS has scheduled the October employment report for November 6 and October CPI for November 10. October producer prices are scheduled for November 13. The dates should be checked again before those releases.
Does an October Fed pause mean Bitcoin will rise? No. Investors may have priced in a pause, and a hold could still accompany a warning about another rate increase. ETF flows, direct spot trading and leverage affect the outcome as well. This is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Figures reflect regulatory filings and reporting available at the time of writing and change with each disclosure. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or asset. Always do your own research. Information is accurate as of October 17, 2026.
Americké krypto ETF zaznamenaly ve dnech 12.–16. října čistý odliv ve výši 610,7 milionu USD; fondy zaměřené na ethereum odepsaly 320,1 milionu USD, tedy více než bitcoinové fondy, z nichž odteklo 228,4 milionu USD.
U.S. crypto ETFs tracked across five Farside Investors tables have recorded $610.7 million in net outflows during Oct. 12–16, with Ethereum funds losing more money than Bitcoin products.
Summary
$610.7 million left the five tracked ETF categories, down from $1.29 billion the previous week. Ethereum ETFs lost $320.1 million, with BlackRock’s ETHA accounting for $299 million. Bitcoin funds recorded $228.4 million in withdrawals despite two positive trading sessions. Solana, Zcash and Hyperliquid products lost a combined $62.2 million during the five-session period. Farside Investors’ daily figures put Ethereum ETF withdrawals at $320.1 million, followed by $228.4 million from Bitcoin funds, while Solana, Zcash and Hyperliquid products finished the week negative.
Crypto ETF withdrawals fall 52.5% from the previous week Calculated from Farside’s five tables, weekly net withdrawals fell 52.5% from $1.2863 billion during Oct. 5–9. Each tracked category remained negative, although Bitcoin, Ethereum and Zcash recorded smaller losses than in the preceding period.
As crypto.news previously reported, the same five groups lost $1.29 billion during that earlier week. Bitcoin accounted for $678.9 million of those withdrawals, while Ethereum products shed $542.2 million.
The latest daily totals, calculated across Farside’s tables, show that Tuesday was the only session with combined net inflows. Funds attracted $194.3 million that day after losing $155.5 million on Monday.
Wednesday brought $393.4 million in withdrawals, the largest daily loss of the reporting period. Another $90.1 million left on Thursday, followed by $166 million on Friday.
Across the five-session window, Bitcoin and Ethereum accounted for $548.5 million, or approximately 89.8%, of the combined net withdrawal calculated from Farside’s figures.
A separate CoinShares update published Oct. 16 reported $434 million in withdrawals from global digital asset investment products during its reporting week. Its global product coverage and reporting cutoff differ from the five U.S. ETF categories aggregated here.
CoinShares attributed its reported withdrawals to changing interest rate expectations after U.S. inflation and retail sales releases. Its assessment concerned its own dataset; Farside’s tables provide fund flows without assigning a cause to individual transactions.
Ethereum ETF losses reach $320.1 million Ethereum funds recorded four negative sessions and one positive day in Farside’s table. Monday’s $85.4 million withdrawal was followed by $24.8 million in Tuesday inflows, before Wednesday brought the week’s largest exit at $129.5 million.
Thursday and Friday added respective withdrawals of $60.3 million and $69.7 million. Calculated across the table’s daily entries, BlackRock’s ETHA lost $299 million, equivalent to 93.4% of the category’s net weekly outflow.
Fidelity’s FETH attracted $10.5 million over the week, while Grayscale’s Ethereum Mini Trust lost $12.4 million. Grayscale’s ETHE recorded an $18.3 million withdrawal, and Franklin Templeton’s EZET shed $900,000.
The remaining Ethereum products showed no net flows during the period in Farside’s table.
Elsewhere in the U.S. Ethereum fund market, VanEck requested withdrawal of its proposed Lido Staked Ethereum ETF registration in an Oct. 14 filing, as reported Oct. 15.
The sponsor’s SEC submission said it “does not intend to proceed with the planned distribution” of the trust’s shares. VanEck confirmed that the registration statement had not become effective and that no securities had been issued or sold under it.
The filing sought the SEC’s consent to withdraw the registration statement under Rule 477. It concerned a proposed offering that had never issued shares, separate from the operating funds in Farside’s weekly flow table.
Bitcoin ETFs lose $228.4 million despite Tuesday buying Bitcoin funds recorded their strongest session on Tuesday, attracting $175.7 million, according to Farside. Wednesday’s $261.4 million withdrawal exceeded that intake, and Friday ended with another $82.4 million exit.
BlackRock’s IBIT lost $165.4 million over the week, calculated from its five daily entries. Fidelity’s FBTC shed $60.2 million, while Morgan Stanley’s MSBT attracted $6.7 million and Bitwise’s BITB added $2.2 million.
Invesco’s BTCO lost $4.1 million, and Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust recorded $7.6 million in withdrawals.
Earlier in October, Bitcoin funds had suffered $484.9 million in withdrawals during the Oct. 7 session. Coverage published Oct. 8 identified that as their largest daily outflow since June 25, when withdrawals reached $691.7 million.
Solana funds record a second week of daily outflows Solana products lost $25.5 million during Oct. 12–16, with every session negative in Farside’s table. The category recorded $25 million in withdrawals across five negative sessions the previous week.
Bitwise’s BSOL accounted for $18.8 million of the latest weekly loss, calculated from its daily entries. Grayscale’s GSOL shed $6 million on Thursday, while VSOL lost $700,000 on Monday.
Friday’s $12.7 million withdrawal, entirely from BSOL, was the category’s largest daily exit of the week.
Zcash’s tracked ZCSH product lost $19.2 million, according to Farside’s daily figures. Wednesday brought $3.7 million in inflows, but Thursday’s $14.8 million withdrawal exceeded that intake.
Hyperliquid products recorded $17.5 million in weekly withdrawals. Farside’s entries show losses of $6.4 million from BHYP, $8.5 million from THYP and $2.6 million from HYPG.
Thursday accounted for $10.3 million of Hyperliquid’s weekly net outflow, including $7.1 million from THYP. Farside recorded zero net flows across all three products on Tuesday and Friday.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin shared a “fun fact of the day” on X, posting two detailed cost tables comparing Bitcoin mining economics to AI inference.
The numbers expose a clear gap: Bitcoin mining costs split roughly 50/50 between compute capex and electricity, while AI inference is dominated almost entirely by hardware capex.
That gap gives power-rich Bitcoin mining operations a structural flexibility advantage that pure AI operators largely cannot replicate.
Vitalik’s Numbers: Bitcoin Mining Is ~46% Electricity, AI Inference Is ~5% Buterin’s tables break down costs per unit of work. For Bitcoin mining, the approximate total cost per BTC mined sits near $93,700.
Compute capex, hardware, cooling, and power gear, accounts for roughly $37,600, or about 40%.
Electricity into the machines adds $40,600, or 43.3%. Other electricity costs lift the total electricity share to about 45.9%.
Labor accounts for $3,200 (3.4%). Facilities rent comes to $2,500 (2.7%). Other expenses, maintenance, insurance, and bandwidth, make up about $7,400 (7.9%).
AI inference per GPU-year tells a very different story. Total costs land near $26,260. Compute capex alone takes up $19,900, or roughly 76% of the total.
Electricity, by contrast, totals just $1,260 across all categories, barely 4.8% of the bill. Labor adds $1,400. Facilities rent comes in at $900. Other overheads make up around $2,800.
Buterin did not frame the comparison as a criticism of either model. He presented it as a factual contrast.
Wu Blockchain highlighted the post as a notable data point for the crypto-AI infrastructure debate, noting that Vitalik has been increasingly vocal on AI and crypto security risks.
He has also built a privacy-focused AI agent that limits identity and data leaks, signaling his deeper engagement with AI infrastructure questions.
Fun fact of the day: Bitcoin mining cost is split about 50/50 between compute capex and electricity. Meanwhile, AI inference is almost completely dominated by compute capex. pic.twitter.com/PCFKZSuNRw
— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) October 17, 2026
Why Bitcoin Miners Are Structurally Positioned to Win in AI Hosting The cost gap carries a direct strategic implication. Because Bitcoin mining electricity costs are large and variable, miners with flexible power contracts can curtail or redirect capacity when hashprice falls.
AI inference operators have no such relief. Once a GPU cluster is financed and deployed, the capex clock ticks whether or not the hardware is fully utilized.
That explains the wave of miner-to-AI pivots already underway. Core Scientific signed an AI data center deal with AMD as it shifted capacity away from mining.
Bitcoin miner MARA is targeting AI growth through a $168M EDF deal. And Anthropic signed a 20-year data center lease with Bitcoin miner TeraWulf, locking in long-term power access through mining infrastructure.
VanEck has also made the case publicly. The asset manager argued that Bitcoin miners’ AI arbitrage could be a game-changer, pointing to the same structural cost gap Buterin’s tables now quantify precisely.
More broadly, Bitcoin miners are diversifying into AI and projecting billions in revenue from hosting and colocation contracts.
Buterin’s post adds a precise, data-backed foundation to a shift the industry has been tracking for months.
Miners that control large, flexible power contracts are not just hedging, they are sitting on a structural asset that AI-only operators cannot easily replicate.
And despite the AI-Bitcoin intersection narrative, Vitalik has rejected claims that AI could crash Bitcoin’s price by 50%, reinforcing his view that the two ecosystems are more complementary than competitive.
Akcie Strategy v pátek klesly o více než 5 % na 136 USD a od zářijového maxima ztratily 20 %, zatímco bitcoinové ETF zaznamenaly tento měsíc odliv 534 milionů USD.
Strategy stock fell over 5% on Friday, closing at $136, which marks a 20% decline from its September high and the lowest level since mid-September. This renewed drop comes as momentum in both the stock and Bitcoin appears to be fading, with ongoing concerns about share dilution among investors.
Bitcoin price decline impacts Strategy stockShares of Strategy, a firm holding one of the world’s largest public Bitcoin positions, have closely tracked the cryptocurrency’s recent downturn. Bitcoin’s price surged to a peak of $87,270 in September but has since fallen to about $80,980 as appetite in both futures and spot ETF markets has weakened.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which saw substantial net inflows in recent months, recorded more than $534 million in outflows this month, reversing September’s inflows of $2.6 billion and August’s $3.52 billion increase. Despite these outflows, total cumulative inflows for Bitcoin ETFs stand at $56.9 billion. Among these, BlackRock’s IBIT leads with $66 billion in assets.
Bitcoin futures open interest has dipped, shrinking to $52 billion from last month’s high of $62 billion, indicating lighter demand from speculative traders. Additionally, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has remained negative since late September, reflecting sustained caution among US-based investors.
Shares of Strategy often mirror Bitcoin’s movements, given the company’s significant exposure. The firm currently holds 848,250 BTC, with a total market value of $68.6 billion.
Strategy has funded much of its Bitcoin acquisition by issuing new shares. Outstanding shares have climbed to 352 million from just 93.2 million in 2022, raising worries about ongoing dilution for shareholders.
Mini dictionary: Strategy is a US-based publicly traded company known for holding significant amounts of Bitcoin on its balance sheet and using equity issuance to expand these holdings.
Key technical levels for Bitcoin and MSTRTechnical analysis indicates Bitcoin has performed poorly over recent weeks, moving from $87,270 at the end of September to around $80,890. After forming a double-top pattern, considered a sign of potential downward reversal, the price dropped below the $82,300 neckline. Bitcoin has also slipped under its 50-day moving average, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to worsen.
Analysts suggest the next key support for Bitcoin may be near $74,933, its lowest level in September. If a further drop occurs, the value of Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings could decrease to $63.4 billion.
MetricSeptember HighCurrentBitcoin Price$87,270$80,980Strategy (MSTR) Share Price$171.40$134–$136Outstanding Shares93.2 million (2022)352 millionBitcoin ETF Inflows (Sept)$2.6 billionOutflows $534 million (Oct)For MSTR shares, the daily chart reveals a decline from $171.40 on September 22 to $134, tracking the Bitcoin sell-off. The price has dropped below the 25-day moving average and the descending trendline connecting recent highs. The MACD indicator has shown a bearish crossover, with both lines pointing downward. This technical setup hints at further weakness, with the psychological $100 level as a probable target.
If the stock rises above $150, the bearish scenario may be invalidated, potentially signaling gains up to $200.
Analyst views and future outlookDespite the recent correction, several analysts remain positive on MSTR’s prospects. Cantor Fitzgerald has set a price target of $208, Citigroup targets $240, and Bernstein offers an optimistic $350. B.Riley projects a more conservative rise to $195.
Analysts from multiple firms have issued price targets ranging from $195 to $350 for Strategy, reflecting continued faith in the firm’s Bitcoin-centric strategy over the longer term despite recent market headwinds.
As both Bitcoin and ETF inflow momentum cool, investors will be closely watching support levels in the weeks ahead as well as further dilution risk stemming from additional share issuance.
Fidelity Digital Assets recently released an analysis noting that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to its highest level since Bitcoin’s inception, while the size of U.S. federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, with interest payments exceeding Medicare to become the second-largest expenditure item in the federal budget. Fidelity pointed out that Bitcoin’s correlation with the 10-year U.S. real interest rate was long low, but has gradually turned positive in recent years, rising above 0.6 in 2026, a record high. Over the past two months, Bitcoin has rallied nearly 30%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has jumped more than 10% in the same period. Fidelity argues that amid rising government debt, higher financing costs and growing concerns over fiscal intervention, Bitcoin’s fixed supply cap of 21 million coins may boost its appeal as a potential hedge against currency devaluation and a portfolio diversification tool. If current debt and interest rate trends persist, government interest payments could even become the largest expenditure item in the federal budget in the future. U.S. Treasury data shows that the U.S. federal budget deficit for fiscal 2026 rose to $1.99 trillion, up from $1.78 trillion in fiscal 2025, the highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the Trump administration’s pledge to cut spending, military spending, Social Security expenditures and Treasury interest payments continue to climb, coupled with a decline in corporate tax revenue, further expanding the fiscal deficit.
BlackRock has sold $71.78 million worth of Bitcoin, according to a widely shared post on X. That number sounds dramatic when you attach the name of the world’s largest asset manager to it.
The reality is more mundane, and arguably more telling. The selling traces back to investors pulling money out of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), not to Larry Fink’s team deciding Bitcoin had a bad vibe.
What actually happened IBIT is the largest US spot Bitcoin ETF, holding tens of billions of dollars in assets. When shareholders redeem, the fund sells some of the Bitcoin backing those shares to pay them out.
BlackRock has made that point itself. The firm maintains its Bitcoin sales are purely reactive, driven by client demand, and no proprietary Bitcoin selling by BlackRock has been documented. Every sale on record ties back to redemptions.
The $71.78 million figure lands amid a run of similar moves. Research covering mid-October 2026 shows IBIT clients sold approximately $65.4 million in Bitcoin on October 13, 2026.
That followed a much rougher session earlier in the month. On October 7, 2026, IBIT saw $207.7 million in outflows in a single day.
IBIT was not alone that day. Net outflows across all US spot Bitcoin ETFs hit $484.9 million on October 7, which means BlackRock’s fund accounted for a sizable slice of the exodus.
Zoom out to the full week, and the picture gets bleaker. Combined outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF products exceeded $1.2 billion, marking the weakest stretch for these funds since late June 2026.
The backdrop: a jittery market Bitcoin has been trading in a range of roughly $80,000 to $83,000 during this period. The redemptions have coincided with price swings around that band.
Higher rates matter here for a simple reason. When safe assets start paying more, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like Bitcoin goes up.
Since launching in January 2024, IBIT has become the default on-ramp for institutions that want Bitcoin exposure without touching a private key.
There is also precedent for large holders trimming positions. Harvard Management reduced its IBIT stake by about $72 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, another case where the selling started with the client, not the issuer.
Why the headline number misleads, and why it still matters Framing these flows as “BlackRock sells Bitcoin” makes for a punchy post. It also implies a strategic call by the firm, which the evidence does not support.
BlackRock is acting as a pass-through here. The Bitcoin it sells belongs, functionally, to IBIT shareholders who decided they wanted dollars instead.
What the data actually shows is a sentiment problem among the fund’s clients. And for anyone tracking Bitcoin’s price, client sentiment may matter more than BlackRock’s corporate opinion anyway.
What this means for Bitcoin investors ETF flows have become one of the clearest real-time windows into institutional appetite for Bitcoin. When money pours in, funds buy. When it pours out, they sell, and that selling hits the spot market.
Still, flow data is noisy. One heavy day, like the $207.7 million IBIT saw on October 7, can be followed by smaller outflows or even inflows once markets settle. The October 13 figure of approximately $65.4 million was meaningfully smaller than that early-month spike.
For BlackRock, the stakes are reputational as much as financial. Its insistence that it only follows client demand is part of what makes IBIT credible to cautious institutions.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Bitcoin tento týden klesl zhruba o 3 % na 80 970 USD; poptávka na spotovém trhu zůstává slabá a bitcoinové ETF do čtvrtka zaznamenaly čistý odliv 146 milionů USD.
Bitcoin turned lower in late morning trade, retesting the $80,000 threshold heading into the weekend. The flagship cryptocurrency is down 1.3% to $80,970 Friday afternoon, according to pricing data from LSEG. The cryptocurrency had rallied along with the stock markets in morning trade, but succumbed to continued weakness seen in tech and AI stocks, following the 2.4% slide seen on the Nasdaq.
Bond yields turned higher in the afternoon, this after the Treasury Department passed on an opportunity to send a strong signal that it is considering reducing the sizes of bond auctions. Higher yields have been a pressure point for cryptocurrencies and general commodities, with investors cautious about engaging with what they perceive as "riskier" assets.
Crypto assets were supported in morning trade by dimming expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh avoided a clearly hawkish or dovish tone during a moderated conversation at the International Monetary Fund meetings in Bangkok. But for bitcoin, lacking demand for tokens on the spot market is a fundamental problem that hasn't gone away.
"The demand picture has not improved," said Colin Basco, a senior quantitative analyst with Coinbase Institutional. Basco attributes the upward movement seen in bitcoin earlier in the week to trading by leveraged long positions, as opposed to spot demand among investors. Net flows in and out of bitcoin ETFs, considered a metric of interest in the cryptocurrency among fund managers, have slid back into being more negative than positive for the week.
Through Thursday, bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $146 million, according to data from Coinglass. At the same time, analysts say that bitcoin's relative strength versus AI stocks this week is reason for optimism. Bitcoin shed roughly 3% this week, while the iShares Semiconductor ETF slipped 9%. Write to Kirk Maltais at [email protected] (END) Dow Jones Newswires 10-16-26 1543ET Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Charles Schwab dokončil spuštění služby Schwab Crypto pro maloobchodní klienty: oprávnění klienti nyní mohou přímo obchodovat Bitcoin a Ether za poplatek 0,75 % za každý obchod.
Charles Schwab’s crypto research team says the asset still has strong fundamentals for the future, and it expects regulatory progress to help the broader market.
What Schwab’s researchers are saying
Analyst Adam Lynch made the bullish case on October 15, 2026. He pointed to nearly $60 billion in ETF inflows since early 2024 as evidence that demand runs deeper than a passing trend.
“Bitcoin is strong. It’s powerful… still has strong fundamentals for the future,” Lynch said.
Jim Ferraioli, Schwab’s Head of Crypto Research, noted that Bitcoin’s volatility now sits at about 40, down from a previous range of 50 to 60. He also put Bitcoin’s market cap at approximately $1.6 trillion and said the tokenization of real-world assets has reached around $50 billion.
On regulation, the team cited progress in the US, including clarity on Bitcoin and Ether as digital commodities.
Schwab Crypto goes fully live
Schwab completed the full retail rollout of Schwab Crypto around October 16, 2026. Eligible clients can now trade Bitcoin and Ether directly inside their Schwab accounts. Each trade carries a fee of 0.75%. Schwab plans to add more tokens to the platform by the end of the year.
The service runs through Schwab’s Premier Bank, with Paxos providing sub-custody support and handling execution.
CEO Rick Wurster has described crypto trading as a new source of revenue for the firm. Schwab’s clients hold approximately 20% of the assets in spot crypto ETFs, within Schwab’s $13 trillion in managed assets.
What this means for investors and the industry
Schwab’s research suggests modest allocations to crypto within diversified portfolios.
The 0.75% fee will be one point of comparison for cost-conscious traders. Watch, too, whether Schwab follows through on its plan to add more tokens by year-end.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Kaye Quema. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Standard Chartered spouští pro majetné klienty v SAE obchodování s bitcoinem a etherem přímo prostřednictvím bankovních účtů, včetně úschovy a vypořádání v rámci banky.
Standard Chartered is introducing a cryptocurrency trading solution that lets its wealthy UAE clients buy and sell Bitcoin and Ethereum directly through their existing bank accounts in a closed-loop system with institutional custody.
The bank says this marks a global first for the institution and the UAE’s first such offering by an international bank, regulated by the Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA).
Eligible affluent clients can execute trades within the bank’s ecosystem where Standard Chartered handles custody and settlement to reduce third-party risks through collaboration with its wealth and corporate businesses plus SC Ventures-backed Zodia Markets.
The service launches first for Professional Investor clients in the UAE with expansion planned to other markets later and builds on the bank’s existing crypto access through ETFs, structured products and OTC derivatives.
Samir Subberwal, Global Head of Wealth Solutions at the bank, highlights growing client interest in digital assets.
“With digital assets moving into mainstream wealth conversations, clients are increasingly looking not only for access, but also for the security, trust and confidence that comes from investing through a regulated and trusted institution.”
Rola Abu Manneh, CEO for UAE, Middle East and Pakistan at Standard Chartered, notes the strategic fit with the region.
“We are proud to be the first international bank in the UAE to launch a cryptocurrency trading offering. The UAE was a natural choice for this launch, given the country’s forward-looking approach to innovation, strong regulatory environment and growing leadership in digital assets. This also reflects the strategic importance of the UAE within our network as one of our four global wealth hubs.”
Deutsche Bank, Germany's top bank, is set to roll out a crypto custody service in the coming weeks, a major step to deepen the company's presence in the world of digital assets.
It plans to start by providing custody services for major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). The company will later expand its digital asset offerings,
Gerald Podobnik, co-head of the corporate banking division at Deutsche Bank, announced the company's plans at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings in Bangkok.
HOT Stories
The new custody service will first be rolled out in Germany. The bank plans to expand its presence in key financial centers across Asia by 2027.
The bank also has plans to offer services that will enable its clients to convert fiat to stablecoins and vice versa.
The custody service is mainly targeted at institutions and corporate entities and not individual crypto investors.
As per the bank's earlier announcement, the company will help manage crypto wallets and private keys on behalf of its clients so they do not have to set up their own custody.
The bank had mentioned some stablecoins like USDC and EURC as part of the assets it plans to offer custody for when the service is launched. The fiat-to-stablecoin conversion services will come later.
Deutsche Bank is doubling down on blockchainDeutsche Bank is also working to roll out tokenized deposits and help corporate clients issue securities such as digital bonds on the blockchain.
Tokenized deposits are simply traditional bank deposits on a blockchain. This could help financial institutions move and settle funds using blockchain technology.
On the other hand, issuing bonds on a blockchain can simplify the process of issuing and settling debt securities.
Podobnik also said the bank believes blockchain-based financial products will be a complement to the bank's existing infrastructure and not a substitute for traditional financial services.
This move is part of Deutsche Bank's corporate banking strategy. They aim to see an 8% compound annual revenue increase until 2028.
Devět kryptofirem založilo Quantum Alliance, která má stanovit standardy ochrany Bitcoinu a Etherea před kvantovými hrozbami. Sporné je zmrazení zranitelných aktiv; odhadem má veřejné klíče 6,4 milionu bitcoinů.
The Quantum Alliance, a consortium of nine crypto firms, was launched today. Publicly disclosed members include security company Hacken, Charles Hoskinson’s Midnight Foundation, quantum-resistant Layer 1 blockchain Quantus, and Postquant Labs; additional members have not yet been individually named. The alliance will develop common security standards for blockchains such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. It is estimated that roughly 6.4 million Bitcoin—representing 30.2% of the total supply—have exposed public keys, including around 1.1 million linked to Satoshi Nakamoto. Existing quantum computers are not yet capable of stealing these assets. However, the Quantum Alliance has significant internal divisions over the quantum threat timeline and response strategies. Bryn Bennett, chief revenue officer at The Vault, stated no one knows the exact date, but estimates of when quantum threats will become actionable are constantly advancing. Richard Carback, CTO of Postquant Labs, believes 2028 is a realistic timeline. The core debate centers on whether to freeze vulnerable assets. Carback advocates for transferring rather than freezing, while Bennett points out that freezing is a governance decision for the Bitcoin network, and any freeze would set a precedent that trades property rights and network neutrality for quantum risk. Previously, CZ suggested freezing Satoshi’s Bitcoin, and developer Jameson Lopp also proposed restricting vulnerable tokens, though critics argue this violates Bitcoin’s fundamental promise of non-seizure. Moving forward, the alliance plans to publish joint security testing and migration guidelines.
Capital B vykázala za první pololetí 2026 čistou ztrátu 69,5 milionu EUR v důsledku nepeněžního snížení hodnoty Bitcoinu o 67,5 milionu EUR; její strategická rezerva přitom vzrostla na 3 139 BTC.
Capital B has reported a €69.5 million ($78 million) net loss for the first half of 2026, largely driven by a €67.5 million ($75.8 million) Bitcoin impairment charge, even as the French company’s cryptocurrency holdings increased 11.2% during the period.
Summary
Capital B reported a €69.5 million first-half net loss, mainly driven by Bitcoin impairment charges. The company’s €67.5 million Bitcoin impairment was noncash and reflected prices recorded on June 30. Capital B increased its strategic Bitcoin holdings from 2,823 BTC in January to 3,139 by June. First-half revenue increased 3.5% to €5.85 million, while group adjusted EBITDA remained in negative territory. By September 30, Capital B held 3,538 Bitcoin acquired at an average cost of €87,805. Capital B confirmed in its October 15 financial report that the charge reflected Bitcoin’s valuation as of June 30 and did not involve a cash payment. The Paris-listed company reported a net loss of €1.9 million during the corresponding period in 2025.
Despite the accounting loss, consolidated revenue increased 3.5% from €5.65 million to €5.85 million ($6.5 million). Capital B continued raising funds for Bitcoin purchases, bringing its strategic holdings to 3,139 BTC by June and 3,538 BTC by the end of September.
The results cover the six months ended June 30, while the company’s treasury update includes transactions completed after the reporting period.
Capital B’s $78M loss comes largely from Bitcoin impairment The first-half results were dominated by a €67.5 million impairment charge associated with the company’s Bitcoin holdings. Capital B recognized the charge after assessing the cryptocurrency’s value at the June 30 reporting date.
An impairment charge reduces the recorded value of an asset in a company’s financial statements when accounting rules require it. Capital B explained that the Bitcoin adjustment did not involve selling its holdings or making an equivalent cash payment.
The company’s financial result fell to a loss of €67.5 million, compared with approximately €66,000 during the first half of 2025. Consolidated net income subsequently declined to negative €69.5 million from negative €1.86 million a year earlier.
Operating figures presented a different picture. Capital B reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of €1.07 million, compared with a loss of €815,000 during the corresponding six months in 2025.
EBITDA measures earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. Capital B uses an adjusted measure that incorporates certain accounting items, including France’s research tax credit.
According to the filing, approximately €2.2 million of costs were connected to its Bitcoin treasury operations. Expenses included salaries, financial advisory services, and other activities associated with maintaining and financing the cryptocurrency strategy.
Meanwhile, the company’s established technology businesses reported positive adjusted operating EBITDA of approximately €640,000. The figure represented a 9.8% increase from €580,000 in the comparable period.
Its operating subsidiaries provide data intelligence, artificial intelligence, and technology consulting services. Capital B said the group incurred €3.3 million in purchases and other operating expenses, an increase of 9.9% from the previous year.
Capital B expands Bitcoin treasury to 3,538 BTC Alongside its financial results, Capital B provided updated figures showing continued Bitcoin purchases throughout 2026.
The company’s strategic reserve increased from 2,823 BTC in January to 3,139 BTC by June 30, representing growth of 11.2%. Subsequent acquisitions brought the reserve to 3,538 BTC by September 30, an increase of 25.3% from the beginning of the year.
Capital B reported a total acquisition cost of €310.6 million for the September holdings, equivalent to an average purchase price of €87,805 per Bitcoin. The figure represents the company’s historical acquisition cost, not the cryptocurrency’s current market value.
In its October 15 financial disclosure, the company stated that the strategic reserve remained at 3,538 BTC. It separately held another 61 BTC designated for operational requirements.
The additional 61 BTC are excluded from the company’s reported strategic treasury performance indicators. Including those separately designated assets, Capital B controlled 3,599 BTC as of the announcement date.
Earlier in September, the company completed additional Bitcoin purchases following new fundraising transactions. Its €25.3 million Bitcoin acquisition program followed private placements involving institutional investors and shareholders.
Capital B measures treasury progress partly through a metric called BTC Yield, which tracks changes in Bitcoin holdings per fully diluted share. The company reported a 1.85% BTC Yield for the first half and 2.2% through September.
Its financial report cautions that BTC Yield is not equivalent to a conventional investment yield. The indicator does not measure operating profit, cash generation, or the investment return earned by shareholders.
Capital B raises funds to continue Bitcoin purchases During the first half, Capital B announced financing transactions totaling €27.5 million, or roughly $30 million. The amount included equity placements, share warrants, and financing packages combining shares with warrants.
According to its financial report, approximately €15.2 million came from share-and-warrant transactions, while warrant exercises generated another €8.8 million. Equity financing programs contributed approximately €3.5 million.
The company used its financing strategy to support Bitcoin purchases and increase the amount of cryptocurrency held per fully diluted share.
Among its institutional investors is Blockstream co-founder Adam Back, who participated in earlier funding rounds. A September transaction involving Back raised €7.6 million and expanded his investment in the company.
As detailed in the Capital B financing agreement involving Adam Back, the placement included shares and warrants that could provide further funding if exercised.
Capital B’s latest report showed fundraising activity continued after June. From the start of the second half through October 15, the company announced approximately €31.7 million in additional capital raises.
Most of the second-half funding came from transactions combining equity with warrants, accounting for €28.7 million. Another €3 million was raised through equity financing arrangements.
The company had previously secured shareholder authorization for substantial financing capacity. At its June meeting, investors approved up to €5 billion in capital increases and €100 billion in credit instruments.
The shareholder-approved Bitcoin financing framework provides authority for potential future transactions. The approved limits do not represent funds already raised or debt already issued.
Capital B completes stock split and updates cash position Capital B’s financial report confirmed that its 10-for-1 reverse stock split became effective on September 8, following approval by the board on July 17.
The transaction combined every ten existing shares into one new share, reducing the number of shares outstanding without changing investors’ proportional ownership solely through the consolidation.
Following the adjustment, each share’s nominal value increased to €0.80. Capital B adopted a new International Securities Identification Number, FR0014019Y19, and adjusted the terms of outstanding warrants and convertible instruments.
The company previously described the restructuring as part of its efforts to attract institutional investors. Its shares continue trading on Euronext Growth Paris under the ticker ALCPB, with CPTLF used for its U.S. trading quotation.
Separately, Capital B reported improvements in its available cash after the first-half reporting date. At June 30, the group held €2.3 million in cash and 61 BTC designated for operating requirements.
By September 30, available cash had increased to €4.6 million. The company valued its separately designated 61 BTC at approximately €4.5 million, bringing combined cash and operational Bitcoin resources to €9.1 million.
The group’s total assets stood at €317.1 million at the end of June, compared with €297.2 million at the end of 2025. Shareholders’ equity declined to €86.8 million from €109.4 million, while provisions increased to €124 million.
Capital B said its half-year financial statements had undergone a limited review by statutory auditors and were prepared on a going-concern basis. Based on its internal forecasts, the company stated that available liquidity was consistent with its expected funding requirements for the following 12 months.
On August 17, Blockstream Capital Partners completed the conversion of its remaining 14.2 million OCA B-01 convertible instruments into approximately 28.7 million ordinary shares before the reverse stock split. The conversion was among the post-June transactions included in the company’s October 15 financial disclosure.
Google s procesorem Willow snížil kvantové chyby 40krát oproti předchozímu stavu a dosáhl úspěšnosti 99,99 %, technologie však zatím nedokáže prolomit šifrování Bitcoinu.
Google has demonstrated a 40-fold reduction in quantum computing errors using its Willow processor, advancing a technology that researchers believe could eventually challenge the cryptography protecting Bitcoin.
Summary
Google reduced quantum computing errors approximately 40-fold using magic state cultivation on its Willow processor. Google’s researchers achieved 99.99% logical fidelity while testing purified quantum states on real computing hardware. Glassnode estimated 6.04 million BTC had exposed public keys, representing 30.2% of mined Bitcoin. Google’s earlier research estimated future cryptographic attacks could require fewer than 500,000 physical quantum qubits. Coinbase published Bitcoin security recommendations on October 13, addressing migration challenges and vulnerable legacy coins. Google announced the results on October 15, 2026, following the publication of its research in the scientific journal Science. The experiment used a technique called magic state cultivation to produce quantum states with 99.99% logical fidelity, or accuracy, under the researchers’ testing method.
The achievement addresses a technical problem that has limited efforts to build reliable quantum computers. Although Google’s experiment did not break Bitcoin’s encryption, its findings concern technology that could eventually help future machines perform the calculations needed to attack existing cryptographic systems.
JUST IN: Google’s Willow chip advances quantum computing, raising fresh questions about Bitcoin’s security
A new technique called “magic state cultivation” cuts quantum errors roughly 40x with 99.99% accuracy, but scaling it up remains a challenge before quantum computers could… pic.twitter.com/9gL46tAPJT
— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) October 16, 2026 The research follows Google’s March assessment that a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could break the type of elliptic curve cryptography used by Bitcoin with fewer than 500,000 physical qubits under specified hardware assumptions.
Google cuts quantum computing errors by 40 times Google’s latest experiment focused on reducing errors in special quantum states used to perform certain advanced calculations. Known as magic states, they provide resources needed for operations that ordinary quantum error-correction methods cannot perform on their own.
Creating these states has been one of the expensive parts of quantum computing. According to Google’s researchers, some estimates suggest that producing sufficiently reliable magic states could consume as much as 95% of a quantum computer’s capacity.
The new method begins with a quantum state that contains errors and subjects it to repeated checks. Attempts that fail the tests are discarded, leaving the successful ones with substantially lower error rates.
Using the Willow processor, Google demonstrated that the cultivation process reduced errors by approximately 40 times compared with states created without the method. Its researchers reported a record logical fidelity of 99.99% for the resulting T-states, which are used in important quantum computing operations.
Research scientists Emma Rosenfeld and Craig Gidney described the result as the first experimental demonstration of an efficient method for producing these resources on real quantum hardware.
The team developed the approach from theoretical work conducted in 2024 by Gidney, Noah Shutty, and Cody Jones. Turning the proposal into a working experiment required changes to both the hardware controls and the techniques used to measure errors.
During testing, researchers discovered that electrical drift and temperature variations were interfering with their measurements. They introduced new controls and developed a benchmarking method that allowed the cultivation process to help verify its own accuracy.
Google subsequently demonstrated that purified states could transfer between two quantum error-correction methods, known as color codes and surface codes. The experiment successfully moved a state from a distance-3 color code into a distance-5 surface code.
The company cautioned that the technique still needs testing at larger scales before it can support practical quantum computers.
What Google’s quantum advance means for Bitcoin security Bitcoin uses public-key cryptography to authorize transactions and prove that funds are being spent by their rightful owners. Private keys remain secret, while public keys can be used to verify digital signatures.
A sufficiently powerful quantum computer running Shor’s algorithm could theoretically calculate a private key from an exposed public key. Such an attack would threaten funds protected by existing elliptic curve signature systems.
In March 2026, Google researchers estimated that future machines could break 256-bit elliptic curve cryptography using fewer than 500,000 physical qubits. The research involved hardware assumptions and calculations that have not been demonstrated on a machine capable of attacking Bitcoin.
The estimate represented approximately a 20-fold reduction from earlier resource calculations. Google’s researchers developed optimized quantum circuits intended to perform the mathematical operations required to recover private keys from public keys.
However, the work still requires millions of quantum operations and reliable error correction. Magic states are needed to support some of those operations, making Google’s latest experiment relevant to the technical requirements identified in its earlier research.
The Willow processor contains 105 physical qubits, far below the resources described in Google’s Bitcoin security study. Its latest achievement involved preparing and verifying quantum states, not extracting cryptocurrency private keys.
As previously examined in Google’s accelerated quantum security timeline, the company has urged organizations to prepare for post-quantum cryptography before capable machines become available.
Google has not announced when its cultivation method will work at the scale needed for practical cryptographic attacks. The company acknowledged that technical challenges remain in expanding the experiment to larger systems.
Glassnode identifies 6.04 million BTC with exposed public keys The potential threat to Bitcoin depends partly on whether an attacker’s target has a publicly visible cryptographic key.
Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode estimated in May that approximately 6.04 million BTC, equivalent to 30.2% of the mined supply at the time, had public-key exposure while sitting in unspent transaction outputs.
The research separated exposed holdings into two categories. Approximately 1.92 million BTC were classified as structurally exposed because their address formats revealed public keys by design.
Another 4.12 million BTC were considered operationally exposed through practices such as address reuse and partial spending. In certain transaction structures, spending Bitcoin reveals a public key that was previously hidden behind a cryptographic hash.
The figures measure exposure under Glassnode’s methodology, not coins that quantum computers can currently steal. They do not establish that all 6.04 million BTC would be accessible to an attacker under identical conditions.
The findings were covered in an earlier report on quantum computing risks to blockchain security, which examined European regulatory concerns and the concentration of Bitcoin in potentially vulnerable addresses.
Another challenge involves coins whose owners may no longer possess the private keys needed to move them. Researchers have estimated that millions of BTC could remain in old wallets because their owners lost access, abandoned the accounts, or have not moved the holdings for years.
A June study by Quantus estimated that approximately 2.3 million BTC could be difficult or impossible to migrate using ordinary wallet procedures.
The research, previously examined in warnings about lost Bitcoin and future quantum attacks, described potential risks involving dormant wallets and early Bitcoin holdings.
Those figures remain estimates. Public blockchain data cannot conclusively determine whether an inactive wallet’s owner has lost access or simply chosen not to spend the coins.
Coinbase proposes steps to protect Bitcoin from quantum attacks As researchers continue improving quantum hardware, cryptocurrency companies are examining how Bitcoin could transition to signature systems designed to resist quantum attacks.
On October 13, Coinbase published recommendations addressing Bitcoin’s long-term security, including the treatment of exposed coins, new wallet formats, and the practical challenges of replacing existing cryptographic signatures.
The exchange argued that protecting Bitcoin requires more than selecting a quantum-resistant algorithm. A successful transition would need to consider transaction fees, limited block space, wallet compatibility, custody systems, and the ability of independent nodes to verify transactions.
Coinbase described several possible approaches to coins that cannot move before a future security upgrade. Options included restrictions on spending from vulnerable addresses and recovery mechanisms that could allow legitimate owners to reclaim affected holdings.
The exchange did not present those possibilities as agreed Bitcoin policy. Decisions involving dormant coins and potential restrictions would require discussion and acceptance within Bitcoin’s decentralized development community.
For active wallets, Coinbase supported allowing users to adopt quantum-resistant options through a staged transition. The proposal would give developers and custodians time to test new signature systems before existing protections become vulnerable.
Some Bitcoin developers have already proposed changes through Bitcoin Improvement Proposals, including BIP-360, which introduces a proposed output type intended to reduce public-key exposure in certain circumstances.
Researchers have warned that migrating large numbers of Bitcoin transactions could require several years, depending on the selected signature system, network capacity, and the number of users moving their funds.
A separate June study projected that a migration beginning in 2026 might finish between 2029 and 2031 under its assumptions. The calculation remains conditional, and Bitcoin has not approved a network-wide deadline for switching to post-quantum signatures.
Google’s latest research provides a new experimental result for quantum hardware development, while Coinbase’s October recommendations remain open for discussion among Bitcoin developers, researchers, custodians, and other network participants.
V Thajsku vstoupila v platnost pravidla pro ETF na Bitcoin a Ethereum. Fondy musí pasivně sledovat jediné aktivum a udržovat alespoň 80% průměrnou čistou expozici vůči němu.
16 October 2026 | 12:21 Thailand’s crypto-ETF rules took effect on October 16, allowing local issuers to establish Bitcoin and Ethereum funds under new requirements for fund management, custody and Stock Exchange of Thailand trading.
Key Takeaways Bitcoin and Ethereum are the first assets eligible for Thai crypto ETFs. Funds must use a passive strategy and maintain at least 80% average net exposure. Underlying crypto must be held by an SEC-regulated custodian. Brokers cannot offer margin loans for crypto-ETF purchases. The rules do not announce a fund, ticker or first trading date. Before investors can buy a Thai crypto ETF, an issuer must still publish its prospectus, appoint service providers and complete the listing process.
Thailand’s full crypto-ETF rule package is now in force The Thai Securities and Exchange Commission’s October 8 announcement set out 11 notifications governing the creation and supervision of domestic crypto ETFs. The package covers fund structures, service providers, investor protections and the ability of Thai funds to invest in locally listed crypto ETFs.
It follows the earlier policy move that cleared the way for locally listed Bitcoin and Ether ETFs. The rules now define the route a fund manager must follow, but they do not establish that any issuer has completed it.
What a Thai Bitcoin or Ethereum ETF must look like During the initial phase, Bitcoin and Ethereum are the only eligible crypto assets. The SEC said it will determine any future additions by considering factors including liquidity, broad market acceptance, network security and investor protection.
Fund-design rule: Each crypto ETF must passively track a single eligible crypto asset and maintain average net exposure of at least 80% of its net asset value over each accounting year.
Crypto ETFs must list and trade exclusively on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). Thai mutual funds and private funds may also invest in locally listed crypto ETFs, subject to their existing investment limits. Permission to invest does not require any fund manager to allocate capital.
The SEC has also limited certain foreign alternatives during the initial phase. Thailand will not permit locally issued depositary receipts referencing foreign crypto ETFs, while securities companies may not facilitate foreign crypto-ETF investments for clients who are neither institutional investors nor ultra-high-net-worth investors.
Who manages, safeguards and distributes a future fund? Investors in an ETF hold fund units rather than the underlying Bitcoin or Ethereum themselves. The framework therefore places obligations on the parties responsible for managing the fund, safeguarding its assets and providing trading access.
Participant Role in a crypto ETF Asset manager Establishes and manages the fund, with adequate staff, systems and service-provider arrangements. Digital-asset custodian Safeguards the underlying Bitcoin or Ethereum and must be regulated by the SEC. Mutual fund supervisor Oversees the fund under registration and readiness requirements specific to crypto ETFs. Securities broker Provides SET trading access and must obtain investors’ acknowledgement of product risks. Qualified digital-asset operators may apply to act as mutual fund supervisors, but eligibility to apply is not the same as being registered or appointed to a specific ETF. If a supervisor delegates safekeeping to a sub-custodian, the crypto assets must still be held by a licensed digital-asset custodian.
The SEC may allow qualified foreign custodians in future circumstances, but its October 16 rules do not provide unrestricted permission to use them. Asset managers that outsource digital-asset investment management must use a licensed digital-asset fund manager.
Investor access comes with risk checks and no margin loans Before trading a crypto ETF, investors must receive product-risk education and acknowledge their understanding of the risks. Brokers must also emphasise suitable allocation, concentrated digital-asset exposure and investment decisions that match an investor’s risk tolerance.
Securities companies cannot provide margin loans for crypto-ETF purchases. The restriction is designed to prevent broker-provided leverage from increasing an investor’s exposure to an already volatile asset class.
What must happen before investors can buy one Thailand’s rules enable an ETF launch process; they do not replace it. A prospective issuer must still complete SET’s ETF issuance and listing process and publish product-specific documents.
The first prospectuses and listing notices should identify the fund’s investment method, fee structure, custodian, fund supervisor, market-making arrangements, ETF symbol and trading date. SET’s broader ETF framework also covers disclosures around asset values, tracking information and the participants supporting trading liquidity.
October 16 establishes the legal route to a Thai Bitcoin or Ethereum ETF. A named issuer, published terms and confirmed SET listing will show when investors can actually trade one.
This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment or legal advice. Product availability depends on applicable approvals, offering terms and exchange listings.
Author
Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem. To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem. His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.
The US is hoarding Bitcoin (BTC), turning net importer in 2026 for the first time since 2022, while the rest of the world buys dollar stablecoins, Chainalysis data shows.
The 2026 Geography of Crypto report covers the 12 months to July 1. Chainalysis ties the split to need, since Americans already hold dollars and users elsewhere want them without a US bank account.
Why Is the US Hoarding Bitcoin While Everyone Else Wants Dollars?Chainalysis pooled on-chain service inflows, order book volume, and cross-border position into one Bitcoin index. The US scored 0.96 in 2026 against 0.52 elsewhere, a lead of 0.44 that stood at 0.09 in 2024.
The stablecoin index runs the other way. The rest of the world scored 1.00 and the US 0.56, a deficit that was 0.05 in 2024.
US hoarding Bitcoin while rest of world adopts stablecoins, Chainalysis index finds: Source: ChainanlysisAmericans, meanwhile, treat Bitcoin as a scarce store of value. Will Su, Managing Director and Head of Digital Assets Research at BlackRock, described that demand to Chainalysis.
“Investor interest in bitcoin as a monetary alternative remains strong, particularly as government debt and spending reach new highs globally.”
Will Su, BlackRock, via Chainalysis
Flow data fits the pattern. Transfers below $10,000 left the US on net each period, yet those above $10 million alone brought in 53,200 BTC. Chainalysis describes retail sending Bitcoin out and institutions bringing it in.
Which Trade Lasts Longer?Chainalysis says Bitcoin accumulation depends on institutions’ allocation decisions, which shift with market sentiment. Users who adopt digital dollars, it argues, are unlikely to turn back.
Dollar-pegged tokens account for 99.1% of stablecoin volume on exchange order books. Euro-backed tokens hold 0.45%, despite the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) rules for stablecoin issuers.
The crypto economy of the US and Canada has almost doubled in the past 2 years. Source: ChainanalysisStablecoin reserves sit largely in short-dated US government debt, so overseas demand for digital dollars becomes demand for Treasuries. The pattern repeats in tokenized Treasury demand, where Italy, Portugal, and Singapore each hold more value than US holders.
Singapore and Hong Kong have introduced stablecoin licensing frameworks, yet Chainalysis says rules have moved faster than users.
Threshold připravuje ověřitelné bitcoinové účty (Verifiable Bitcoin Accounts), které mají institucím umožnit využívat tBTC v DeFi, zatímco rezervní BTC zůstanou odděleně v jejich stávající úschově.
Public companies now hold approximately 1.29 million BTC across nearly 200 corporate balance sheets as of October 2026. For much of the past two years, the prevailing treasury strategy focused on accumulating Bitcoin and maintaining holdings in custody. That model is beginning to evolve. New Bitcoin collateral infrastructure, including Sui’s Hashi network, is preparing to launch this month, offering institutional access to Bitcoin collateral markets with more than $500 million in announced capital commitments. Meanwhile, Nasdaq listed Zhibao Technology announced a strategic collaboration with Bedrock on October 12 to explore deploying part of its 2,380 BTC treasury into onchain infrastructure, with institutional custody and compliance considerations forming part of the proposed framework.
Each of these structures has to answer the question a treasury manager will be asked by their board: who controls the Bitcoin once it leaves custody to work onchain. Deploying into DeFi has usually meant transferring it to an intermediary that holds it on the institution's behalf, and that transfer is where most of the counterparty risk in the trade sits.
In short: Institutions can deploy Bitcoin into DeFi without a centralized custodian by separating the Bitcoin from the instrument that moves onchain. The Bitcoin stays reserved in its own UTXO under threshold cryptography, while a 1:1 claim such as tBTC is deployed in its place. Redemption rights stay with an account the institution already controls, and anyone running a Bitcoin node can verify the reserve.Onchain Bitcoin Is Mostly Being Borrowed AgainstA snapshot of the tBTC contract on Ethereum at block 26,141,569 counts 4,152.96 tBTC on the network. Roughly 48% of it sits in Bitcoin-backed lending markets, which makes credit the largest single use of the asset.
Across the network, the supply splits into four uses:
Lending markets, about 48%. Aave alone holds 41.5% of all tBTC on Ethereum, roughly 1,725 tBTC, and three smaller lending markets add a further 6.1%.Outside the listed protocols, 32.7%. This is tBTC the snapshot does not attribute to any of the integrated venues it tracks.Ethereum layer 2 networks, 10.5%. tBTC bridged onward to networks built on Ethereum.DEX liquidity, 8.1%. tBTC supplied to trading pools.Holders are mostly posting Bitcoin as collateral and borrowing against it. Deploying Bitcoin into DeFi is in practice a financing decision, so the party a treasury has to evaluate is the market it borrows from.In a Lending Market, the Counterparty Is a RulebookA centralized lending desk sets its terms by contract and decides how it treats collateral on its own. When several such desks failed in 2022, one large lender's terms had treated deposited assets as loans to the platform, and its bankruptcy filing showed roughly $4.7 billion owed to users.
An onchain lending market publishes its terms as code instead. The two models differ on the points a risk committee checks first:
Centralized Desk vs Onchain Market | Threshold NetworkThe onchain model takes the discretionary custodian out of the financing trade, though venue risk stays. That risk attaches to whatever asset is posted as collateral, so the structure of the collateral decides how far it travels:
Bitcoin posted directly. Every venue event, from a liquidation to a contract failure, reaches the treasury's reserve.A 1:1 claim posted against reserved Bitcoin. Liquidations and venue failures affecting the claim do not reach the reserved coins.Depth Is the Constraint Institutions Will Hit FirstThe same snapshot shows how concentrated onchain Bitcoin credit is. One market holds about 87% of the tBTC sitting in listed lending venues, so a treasury deploying today would in practice be taking that market's code and governance as its main venue exposure.
Size raises a second question. Public companies hold about 1.29 million BTC, and 1% of that, roughly 12,850 BTC, is more than three times the 4,153 tBTC currently on Ethereum. A treasury deploying a quarter of a 2,380 BTC reserve would add about 595 BTC, around 14% of today's Ethereum tBTC supply.
Those numbers set the diligence questions a treasury manager should ask before choosing a venue:
Capacity. Can the target market's supply caps absorb the position?Share. What portion of the market would the position represent once it is in place?Exit. How long would the position take to unwind through that market's liquidity under stress?Governance. Who can change the market's parameters while the position is open, and with how much notice?Keeping the Reserve Out of the VenueVerifiable Bitcoin Accounts are Threshold's structure for separating the reserve from the venue. The Bitcoin stays in the institution's existing custody arrangement in its own reserved output, and only tBTC minted against it goes to a lending market; the mechanics are set out in the launch post and mapped against a full custody review in Who Controls the Bitcoin?
For the financing decision, the useful property is that venue selection and custody stop being the same choice. A treasury can size its tBTC position to what a market can absorb while the reserve behind it stays where its auditors already expect to find it. That matches how institutions say they want to operate, with 53% of respondents in the 2026 EY-Parthenon and Coinbase survey preferring a traditional finance platform with crypto capabilities that keeps digital assets inside existing portfolio and risk processes.
Where This StandsStatus: pre-deployment. Verifiable Bitcoin Accounts are not live yet, and the first live position depends on steps governed by the protocol. Treasury teams evaluating the model now can review the architecture and legal structure ahead of launch through the diligence pack, which is led by a custody-and-control brief that cites the code behind each claim and is available to qualified institutional participants on request. Request the Diligence Pack
Frequently Asked QuestionsCan an institution use Bitcoin in DeFi while keeping its existing custodian?
Yes. A Verifiable Bitcoin Account is funded with one Bitcoin transaction and operated from an Ethereum account within the institution's current custody stack, so the existing custodian relationship stays in place.
How is tBTC different from custodial wrapped Bitcoin?
Custodial wrapped Bitcoin relies on a single issuer holding a pooled reserve. tBTC is minted against Bitcoin secured by a 51-of-100 threshold signer set. With Verifiable Bitcoin Accounts. the coin sits in segregated accounts within the BTC network.
Is the reserved Bitcoin ever lent or rehypothecated?
With Verifiable Bitcoin Account, the reserved Bitcoin is excluded from lending and pledging by design. The protocol and its signers reject any attempt to combine a position's UTXO with any other funds.
How does a treasury or audit team verify a position?
Each position can be located directly from its Bitcoin outpoint. Every movement is a single-input, single-output transaction, so any Bitcoin node can reconstruct the full lineage back to the original deposit.Are Verifiable Bitcoin Accounts live?
They are pre-deployment, and the first live position depends on protocol governance steps. Qualified institutions can request the diligence pack ahead of launch.Check other Bitcoin Markets available onchain
A hacker operating a widespread “task scam” scheme has lost approximately 60 Bitcoins, valued at around $4.8 million, as a result of the recent Ledger hardware wallet hack. The stolen amount highlights both the scale and reach of the security breach affecting the crypto hardware wallet sector.
Scammer among major victims in hardware wallet exploitChainalysis, a blockchain analytics company, reported that the scam operator initially transferred illicitly acquired Bitcoin into three separate Ledger wallets on September 22. On October 9, these funds were consolidated and sent to a wallet previously linked to stolen assets.
Despite the significant loss to the scammer, there is currently no indication that the original victims of his scheme have recovered their funds.
Task scams often involve building trust with small payouts before pressuring individuals to deposit additional money under false pretenses such as a “negative balance.”
How task scams target individualsThe accused operator organized fake jobs and paid participants to carry out fabricated sales and reviews. After a period of building trust, victims were informed of an alleged negative balance and were persuaded to deposit their own money to receive promised payouts.
In 2024, the US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) described similar fraudulent schemes where small online tasks create the illusion of legitimate employment. The FTC estimated that about 20,000 reports concerning task scams had been filed in the first half of 2024, with overall job scam losses surpassing $220 million.
Tampered Ledger devices and method of attackAccording to a statement from Ledger, the perpetrators purchased genuine hardware wallet devices, implanted malicious components within them, and then reintroduced the tampered products into Southeast Asian distributor channels. These modifications enabled the collection of 24-word recovery phrases during device setup, giving attackers remote access to affected wallets.
Ledger maintains that its systems remain secure and has instructed authorized sellers to cease displaying devices openly, supplying them only at the time of purchase.
Mini dictionary: Ledger is a French company specializing in cryptocurrency hardware wallets, widely used for the self-custody of digital assets.
Damage assessment and expanding industry responseWhile Ledger has not provided an official loss total, Bitquery, a blockchain analytics firm, estimated that around $102 million was stolen from 324 wallets spread across six blockchains: TRON, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, BNB Chain, and Polygon. This figure increased from a prior estimate of $86 million.
Bitquery identified CryptoBilis, a hardware wallet reseller operating in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, as an origin point for the affected devices. Stolen funds showed coordinated movement, including $10 million in USDT that Tether subsequently froze. Further portions of the assets were traced through protocols such as Tornado Cash and THORChain.
BlockchainEstimated Stolen FundsNotable ActionsBitcoin~$60 millionLinked to task scammer lossEthereumn/aFunds moved via mixersTRONn/aIncluded in total loss countSolanan/aPart of affected walletsBNB Chainn/aPart of affected walletsPolygonn/aPart of affected walletsMini dictionary: Tornado Cash and THORChain are decentralized protocols that enable the mixing or swapping of cryptocurrencies, often used to obfuscate the origin and movement of digital assets.
Growing industry concerns and countermeasuresThe Ledger incident has intensified concerns regarding cryptocurrency security and the vulnerability of hardware wallet supply chains. TRM Labs reported 207 crypto attacks during the first half of 2026, with $972 million in losses. Notably, while infrastructure and operational breaches made up 15% of attacks, they accounted for 76% of overall losses.
Although the recent Ledger theft has captured industry attention, researchers have not identified a significant impact on overall cryptocurrency market prices.
Chainalysis observed that despite several high-profile thefts, on-chain economic activity decreased only 1.6% during a period when the broader crypto market capitalization dropped by about half, though these statistics predate the Ledger hack.
In response to ongoing threats, hardware wallet manufacturers and resellers are adjusting their security policies. Trezor, a leading hardware wallet provider, announced the termination of some reseller authorizations effective January 1, 2027. OneKey, another wallet producer, ended its relationship with CryptoBilis. Industry sources indicate that these measures aim to address supply chain weaknesses but restoring full trust in self-custody solutions remains a challenge.
Roční realizovaná volatilita Bitcoinu podle společnosti Grayscale klesla na 43 % z 81 % před pěti lety a nyní se pohybuje v rozmezí volatility akcií z indexu S&P 500.
Bitcoin’s one-year volatility has fallen to 43%, a level that now sits within the range of S&P 500 stocks, according to a new Grayscale report.
The comparison could help ease concerns among traditional investors, as inflation data keeps markets on edge.
What Volatility Means for BitcoinVolatility measures how much an asset’s price moves over time. Realized volatility, the measure Grayscale uses, tracks actual price swings over the past year.
Grayscale’s analysis puts Bitcoin’s current level in context. Its one-year realized volatility stood at 43%, down from 81% five years ago and below the 64% ten-year average.
Bitcoin’s $BTC volatility has declined over the past decade as the asset has matured, with deeper liquidity, institutional participation, and regulation.
Over the past year, Bitcoin’s realized volatility fell to 43%, down from 81% five years ago, placing it within the range of… pic.twitter.com/DYT6eNsTZa
— Grayscale (@Grayscale) October 15, 2026 The report also places that figure alongside stocks. Bitcoin’s volatility over the past year fell within the range of S&P 500 components. It was lower than the volatility of 19% of the index’s stocks. Even so, it remains above most individual names, and Grayscale says it no longer sits in a separate risk category.
The firm links the decline to market maturation. Deeper liquidity, institutional participation, and regulated access through spot ETFs have smoothed out extreme swings.
Perception is the report’s central message: Bitcoin’s reputation for high volatility may deter traditional investors.
Can Bitcoin Be Managed Like a Large-Cap Stock Today?Grayscale says the comparison matters for investors who already handle volatile positions. Position sizing, a standard tool in equity portfolios, can apply to Bitcoin too.
The latest price action shows why the debate matters. Bitcoin briefly fell near $80,000 after September CPI came in at 3.7% year over year, above the 3.6% expected.
Traders feared the Federal Reserve could keep rates high or raise them further. Still, BeInCrypto data shows Bitcoin recovering to about $82,285, up 0.81% over 24 hours and 1% over the week.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: BeInCryptoGrayscale adds a caution, however. One year of data cannot reveal how Bitcoin behaves across full market cycles, so the report invites a measured view.
For investors used to volatile large-cap stocks, Bitcoin’s swings may look less intimidating than history suggests.
Průměrný držitel amerických spotových Bitcoin ETF je poprvé od ledna v zisku: Bitcoin od začátku července do začátku října vzrostl zhruba o 42,9 % na 85 000 USD.
The average US spot Bitcoin ETF holder spent most of 2026 underwater. According to ARK Invest, that is no longer the case.
The firm reports that holders’ investment gained 43% in a single quarter, a move it says indicates the market may be turning positive.
From deep outflows to a record week Rewind to mid-July. Cumulative net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs had reached approximately $5.8 billion, driven by Bitcoin’s choppy price action.
Then the price turned. Bitcoin climbed from about $59,500 in early July to around $85,000 by early October, a gain of roughly 42.9%.
That rally mattered for one specific number: the average holder’s cost basis. Estimates put it between $81,722 and $82,000.
Cost basis is simply the average price investors paid to get in. Once Bitcoin traded above that range, the typical ETF buyer was sitting on a profit for the first time since January.
The flows followed the price. In the week ending September 25, 2026, US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in net inflows of approximately $2.4 billion.
That was the biggest weekly haul since October 2025. It also flipped total 2026 flows back into positive territory, with estimates ranging from $800 million to $934 million.
Who led the charge The single biggest day came on September 21, when inflows hit nearly $999 million.
BlackRock’s IBIT led the category. ARK’s own product, the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, ticker ARKB, pulled in roughly $289 to $295 million during its peak week in September.
Across the funds, ETF holdings grew by approximately 88,000 BTC since July, lining up closely with the price surge.
What this means for investors The most important figure here may be the cost basis range itself. With Bitcoin around $85,000 and the average entry near $81,722 to $82,000, the typical holder’s cushion is only a few thousand dollars.
ARK’s framing describes the market as one that may be turning positive. Note the hedge: may.
The flow data does point to renewed institutional engagement. A $2.4 billion week and a near-$999 million day are not the behavior of a crowd that has given up on the asset.
The approximately $5.8 billion outflow by mid-July happened because holders reacted to losses, and the reversal happened because they reacted to gains.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Glassnode varuje, že likvidace dlouhých pozic při poklesu BTC pod úroveň podpory 80 000 USD, zejména v okolí 75 000 USD, zvyšují riziko prudšího propadu.
Very important data was released in the US yesterday and today. Yesterday’s CPI and today’s PPI data both exceeded expectations. CPI is currently almost double the Fed’s 2% target, while PPI is more than three times that target. PPI inflation was expected to fall in August, but instead it surged to 6.3%, reaching its second highest level in four years.
The fact that both inflation and producer price index (PPI) in the US exceeded expectations strengthened the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates in 2026, while putting pressure on cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin.
The Downside Risk in Bitcoin is Higher!
As Bitcoin fell to the $80,000 level, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode stated that BTC was trading near its support level.
At this point, Glassnode noted that while BTC is trading near the $80,000 support level, there are also liquidation zones in the futures market that could trigger sharp price movements both upwards and downwards.
Citing estimated BTC futures liquidation data based on price ranges over the past two months, Glassnode noted that a large portion of long position liquidations were concentrated below $80,000, with another significant liquidation zone around $75,000.
Glassnode stated that the concentration of long position liquidations below $80,000 poses a significant risk that could accelerate Bitcoin’s decline.
In contrast, Glassnode noted that short liquidations on the upside have accumulated to over $85,000 this week.
Finally, Glassnode added that the downward liquidation zones currently appear more vulnerable than the upper range. In other words, the risk of a sharp downward move being triggered under current market conditions is seen as higher than that of an upward move. Furthermore, crypto analyst Darkfost, using a pseudonym, predicts that the correction in Bitcoin could deepen to $74,600.
According to Elliott Wave theory, the analyst states that the fifth wave of the uptrend has been completed and a correction process may have begun, suggesting that the $74,600 level seems possible. At this point, the analyst said that the decline may continue in the short term, but the uptrend has not yet been broken in the medium term.
*This is not investment advice.
Follow our Telegram and X account now for exclusive news, analytics and on-chain data!
Polymarket přisuzuje 73% pravděpodobnost tomu, že Fed na říjnovém zasedání úrokové sazby nezmění, ale pro prosinec započítává 80% pravděpodobnost zvýšení o 25 bazických bodů.
FOMC Polymarket betting odds show traders pricing a 73% chance that the Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged at its October 27–28 meeting, against 27% for a 25-basis-point hike.
The odds come from Polymarket’s October contract, which has traded more than $41.5 million in volume. They are a market-implied probability, not a poll or an official Fed forecast, and they have moved quickly. An earlier snapshot taken at 07:53 UTC on October 15 showed a 75.5% chance of a hold, and hotter inflation data has arrived since.
The Kobeissi Letter reported that September PPI inflation rose to 6.3% against expectations of 5.3%, with core PPI at 5.0% against 4.4%, and that rate-hike odds were climbing on the news.
For Bitcoin traders, the odds put a number on one near-term macro risk: whether the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision changes borrowing costs.
Rates shape Treasury yields, the dollar and appetite for risk assets, but the contract does not show who is trading it or how BTC will react.
Fed Decision in October Polymarket Have a Gut Feeling? It Pays on Polymarket
What Do the FOMC Polymarket Betting Odds Measure? The contract tracks the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate compared with its level before the October meeting. Besides a hold and a 25-basis-point hike, the listed outcomes include a hike of 50 basis points or more and cuts of 25 or 50 basis points or more, all of which are priced below 1%. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point. If a decision does not match a listed outcome, the market rules round the change up to the nearest 25 basis points.
The market is scheduled to close on October 29, and its resolution is tied to the FOMC statement and Federal Reserve rate information. Because prices respond to every new data release, the odds should always be read with their timestamp.
Understanding the difference between prediction-market prices and conventional rate expectations matters when comparing signals. The distinction is explained in this guide to CME FedWatch and Polymarket rate odds.
Could a Fed Hold Ease Pressure on Bitcoin? JUST IN: Bitcoin falls under $80,000 pic.twitter.com/W98z2SlrdI
— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) October 15, 2026
An October hold could remove an immediate policy-change catalyst, but that is not the same as a bullish Bitcoin signal. A pause might bring near-term relief if it reduces concern about a sudden rate increase. Traders could also read it as tightening delayed rather than abandoned, and the December contract points that way: Polymarket prices an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point hike on December 9, against 19% for no change. A separate Polymarket market prices a 97% chance of zero Fed rate cuts in 2026.
The Federal Reserve’s September minutes describe market pricing and surveys that assigned considerable probability to at least 25 basis points of firming by year-end. They also describe persistent inflation, a resilient economy and uncertainty about the outlook. That is a description of market expectations, not a promise by the committee to raise rates in October or December.
For BTC, the practical distinction is between the immediate decision and the path markets anticipate afterward. A hold with language that keeps further increases in play could leave yields and the dollar sensitive to new inflation or economic data. A clearer pause in the expected path could ease that pressure, though the Polymarket contract itself does not predict Bitcoin’s price.
Bitcoin traders assessing October’s Bitcoin performance and macro risks still need to distinguish a single meeting’s outcome from the rate path beyond it.
DISCOVER: 10+ Next Crypto to 100X In 2026
When Is the Next Fed Decision? The Federal Reserve’s calendar lists the October 27–28 meeting, followed by a December 8–9 meeting. The October contract names the post-meeting FOMC statement as its resolution source, so the published decision, not the odds displayed beforehand, will determine the result.
Until then, the FOMC Polymarket betting odds are a changeable snapshot of market pricing. A hold would mean no adjustment to the target range at this meeting, but it would not tell Bitcoin traders whether the Federal Reserve considers its tightening cycle finished.
DISCOVER: 15+ Upcoming Coinbase Listings to Watch in 2026
Follow 99Bitcoins on X For the Latest Market Updates and Subscribe on YouTube For Daily Expert Market Analysis.
#Bitcoin News Today
Why you can trust 99Bitcoins
10+ Years
Established in 2013, 99Bitcoin’s team members have been crypto experts since Bitcoin’s Early days.
90hr+
Weekly Research
100k+
Monthly readers
50+
Expert contributors
2000+
Crypto Projects Reviewed
Follow 99Bitcoins on your Google News Feed
Get the latest updates, trends, and insights delivered straight to your fingertips. Subscribe now!
Subscribe now
Alan Draper
Free Bitcoin Crash Course Enjoyed by over 100,000 students. One email a day, 7 days in a row. Short and educational, guaranteed!
Bitcoin během dne oslabil až o 2,4 % na 79 720 USD a poprvé za téměř měsíc se dostal pod hranici 80 000 USD v důsledku ústupu investorů od rizikových aktiv.
Bitcoin briefly slid below $80,000 for the first time in almost a month, swept up in a broader retreat from risk assets as an AI-led selloff on Wall Street undercut crypto’s attempt to rebuild a bullish tone.
The largest digital asset weakened as US stocks opened lower, with the Nasdaq 100 dropping as much as 1.8% after signs of slowing revenue growth at Anthropic deepened questions about the artificial-intelligence trade. Treasury yields fell as investors sought safety in bonds, while producer-price data and stronger-than-expected retail sales did little to shake expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer.
Crypto is being pulled between those two forces: bullish sentiment among digital-asset analysts on one side, and a broader defensive turn across speculative markets on the other. Jeff Anderson, head of US at STS Digital, said the inflation data will “really hurt risk appetite” as markets enter the Fed blackout period with rate expectations “on a knife’s edge.”
The original digital asset slumped as much as 2.4% to $79,720, the least since Sept. 18. Bitcoin later pared the decline as stocks swung between gains and losses.
Traders are taking the dip as a warning sign of a broader directional downturn for Bitcoin, and are backing away from previous price targets of $100,000. On the crypto options platform Derive.xyz, the priced-in probability of Bitcoin climbing to $100,000 by Christmas fell by 2.8 percentage points to 9.7% over the past 24 hours, Derive.xyz founder Nick Forster said.
“This immediate pull-back from long-term upside bets alongside aggressive short-term hedging shows a dramatic regime shift, with institutional participants rapidly reassessing their macro risk exposure as the path for interest rates turns murky again,” Forster added.
Bitcoin retested $82,000, and the move cost leveraged short sellers $20 million in liquidations.
What happened at $82,000 A short is a bet that price will fall. Add leverage, and that bet is made with borrowed money that an exchange can pull the moment the trade moves against you.
When Bitcoin pushed back toward $82,000, some of those positions hit their liquidation thresholds. Exchanges closed them automatically, wiping out $20 million in short exposure.
Forced closures of shorts also mean forced buying. Each liquidated short has to be bought back, which can add a little fuel to the move that caused it in the first place.
Total liquidations across crypto derivatives markets topped $1 billion during some stretches of October 2026. CoinGlass data showed long positions making up roughly 80-90% of those totals.
Specific flushes included $771 million in liquidations, mostly from long trades. Separate events wiped out $120 million and $485 million at other points.
Why $82,000 keeps coming up Bitcoin has spent early to mid-October 2026 trading near $82,000. It has retested that level several times and slipped below it more than once.
Rising oil prices, fresh US inflation data, rising Treasury yields and moves in Asian equity markets have all weighed on risk appetite.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have also seen outflows totaling hundreds of millions of dollars in a single week.
Traders have been watching a support zone around $81,000 to $82,000. A second line sits lower, near $80,100.
Leverage is shrinking, but it has not left the building The heavy long liquidations earlier in the month forced a partial clean-out of the derivatives market. Bitcoin futures open interest dropped to around $52.7 billion afterward.
What this means for traders and investors The $20 million short squeeze tells you positioning had shifted. After weeks of punishing longs, enough traders had turned bearish that a bounce to $82,000 could catch some of them offside.
Still, the size of this squeeze is a reminder to keep expectations calibrated. A $20 million flush is a ripple compared to the $771 million long wipeout.
For anyone trading with leverage, the $81,000 to $82,000 zone remains the line to watch. A clean break below it could put the $80,100 level in play.
For longer-term holders, if US spot Bitcoin ETFs stop bleeding capital, that would remove one of the clearer sources of pressure this month.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
