Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

The United States (US) midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, could trigger a major repricing of the US Dollar (USD), Treasury yields, and Gold, but the outcome is not predetermined. With all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats up for grabs, the vote will serve as a referendum on Donald Trump's presidency, and prediction markets currently price in a roughly 60% chance of a Democratic sweep, about 30% for a divided Congress, and have almost priced out a Republican sweep. Because Congress shapes taxes, spending, government borrowing, and scrutiny of Federal Reserve (Fed) appointments, the result could push long-term yields, and Gold along with them, decisively in either direction. The key Gold levels to watch sit around $4,000 on the downside and $4,500 on the upside.

What the midterms can (and cannot) changeThe US midterm elections take place on November 3. With all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats up for grabs, the US midterms will serve as a referendum on Donald Trump's presidency, with control of Congress, the cost of living, and the ongoing Iran war dominating voters' concerns. Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both chambers. Democrats need to gain seats in both chambers to secure control of Congress.

Why does this matter to financial markets? Because Congress has a major role in shaping taxes, spending, healthcare policy, government borrowing, and the legislative agenda. A change in congressional control could make it harder for the White House to pass new legislation. It could also increase scrutiny of the administration's policies and appointments.

But traders need to understand one important distinction: a midterm election changes the balance of political power, not the presidency itself. Even if Democrats gain control of Congress, existing policies would not automatically disappear. A divided government could limit new legislation while leaving the administration with considerable influence over trade, sanctions, and foreign policy.

That means the market reaction may depend less on who wins and more on what investors believe the result means for economic growth, inflation, government debt and the Federal Reserve. The election result alone won't tell us how financial markets would react — what matters is how markets are pricing the three possible outcomes.

Scenario one: The Democratic sweep, the market's base caseCurrently, prediction-market pricing gives a Democratic sweep a probability of approximately 60%, although these odds can change before election day. At first glance, investors might expect this outcome to weaken the US Dollar because it would constrain Trump's legislative agenda. A Democratic-controlled Congress could restrain additional tax cuts and spending without necessarily reversing the administration's existing policies. A Democratic Senate could also increase scrutiny of Fed appointments, potentially limiting the administration's influence over the central bank and easing concerns about its independence.

If markets interpret the outcome as a more restrained fiscal path, Treasury yields could face some downward pressure. That could support Gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. However, one important factor remains. If the administration responds by relying more heavily on tariffs, sanctions, or other executive measures, uncertainty could remain elevated. Depending on the reaction across major currencies and bond markets, the USD could still strengthen against some peers. So don't automatically buy Gold just because Democrats win. Watch the US Dollar and Treasury yields after the result.

Scenario two: Democratic House, Republican SenatePrediction-market pricing puts the probability of Democrats winning the House while Republicans retain the Senate at roughly 30%. This would create divided government and make major legislative changes more difficult. The White House could face greater congressional scrutiny, but Congress would not automatically reverse its existing policies. This scenario could broadly be neutral for the USD and US Treasury markets.

For Gold, that suggests the election result alone may not generate a sustained trend. Instead, traders may return their attention to the Federal Reserve, inflation, energy prices, government debt, and geopolitical developments. In other words, political headlines could create short-term volatility, but the broader macroeconomic backdrop would still determine whether Gold can establish a lasting move.

With a divided Congress, the election may deliver less of a clear fiscal signal. A Republican sweep, by contrast, could change expectations for spending, borrowing and inflation.

Scenario three: The Republican sweep, the biggest repricing riskThis outcome could produce the biggest market repricing, as markets have largely priced it out. A Republican sweep could give the administration greater room to pursue its legislative agenda, including additional fiscal stimulus. If investors anticipate stronger growth, higher government borrowing or more inflationary pressure, they could demand higher yields on longer-dated US Treasuries. That could support the USD if markets interpret the yield rise as a sign of stronger growth or tighter monetary policy. For Gold, this could create a significant headwind.

Are higher yields confidence, or fiscal concern?Another factor could matter more than the election headline itself: the cost of financing US government debt. When Treasury yields rise, the government pays more to borrow as it issues new debt or refinances maturing obligations. Higher yields can also feed through to borrowing costs across the wider economy, including mortgage rates.

A month before the vote, the US average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 7.49%, its highest level since November 2023, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. The rise came as Treasury yields increased amid inflation concerns, geopolitical uncertainty, and the government's substantial financing needs.

Why should Gold traders care? Because higher long-term borrowing costs can tighten financial conditions across the economy. More expensive mortgages can weigh on housing demand. Higher financing costs can also pressure businesses and government budgets. If investors believe a Republican sweep will lead to more borrowing and fiscal stimulus, long-term yields could rise further. Initially, that could support the US Dollar and pressure Gold.

But a second possibility exists: If yields rise because investors grow increasingly concerned about government debt, fiscal sustainability, or the credibility of US economic policy, the USD may not strengthen as expected. Gold could benefit if investors turn to it as a store of value or a hedge against broader financial uncertainty.

This is the central question traders should ask: Are higher yields reflecting confidence in the US economy or growing concern about the US fiscal outlook? The answer could determine whether Gold falls or proves unexpectedly resilient.

Gold's technical picture: The burden of proof is on the bulls

Gold weekly chartGold's weekly chart shows that the medium-term recovery remains unconfirmed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below the neutral 50 level. This suggests momentum remains weak, though the market is not necessarily oversold. More importantly, Gold is trading below two major weekly moving averages. This alignment puts the burden of proof on the bulls.

The first major support is at the psychological $4,000 area. A hotly contested election, a Republican sweep that lifts expectations for fiscal expansion, or a stronger USD could add pressure, but the bearish scenario would need confirmation from price action. A break below $4,000 would be a more significant deterioration in the technical picture. Traders would then target the 100-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $3,850, followed by $3,800.

On the other hand, in a Democratic sweep, investors would expect more fiscal restraint, lower long-term yields and reduced uncertainty around the Fed's independence. Then, the yellow metal could attempt a recovery. Gold first needs to reclaim the $4,215-$4,250 area. That's the confluence zone of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from $4,700 and the 21-week SMA. Above that, the next hurdle is the $4,400 zone, where the 50% Fibonacci resistance and the psychological level intersect. A sustained move above the resistance zone would improve the recovery case and open the door to the $4,460 region, where the 61.8% Fibonacci hurdle and 50-week Simple Moving Average align. The next resistance comes in at $4,500.

Recapturing those levels would provide stronger evidence that the recovery is gaining traction. 

If the election produces political gridlock and neither party can materially change the fiscal outlook, Gold could remain range-bound between $3,850 and $4,400. Investors could then refocus on inflation, the Fed's policy path, energy prices and economic growth.

Beyond the ballot: three risks for Gold tradersThe chart gives us the key levels: $4,000 and $3,850 below, and $4,400 and $4,460 above. However, Gold traders must watch three risks.

First, the Federal Reserve. If inflation stays elevated and policymakers signal further tightening, Gold could struggle even if election-related uncertainty increases.Second, geopolitical developments. A possible escalation involving Iran is an upside risk for the US Dollar. Depending on the nature of the shock, Gold could also attract safe-haven demand.Third, the US debt ceiling. Difficult negotiations in 2027 could create volatility in short-dated Treasury bills and broader financial markets.These risks show why it is dangerous to assume that one election result will dictate Gold's direction for months. Markets respond to the full policy and economic consequences, not just the political headline.

The bottom lineThe US midterm elections could trigger a major repricing of the US Dollar, Treasury yields, and Gold, but the outcome is not predetermined. A Republican sweep could raise fiscal-expansion concerns and pressure Gold if yields and the US Dollar rise. Democratic gains could limit new legislation and support Gold if yields ease. A divided Congress could leave markets focused on the Federal Reserve and the wider economic outlook.

Technically, watch $4,000 and $3,850 on the downside, and $4,400 and $4,460 on the upside. Don't trade the election headline. Trade the confirmed reaction.

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Gold (XAU/USD) rebounds slightly after dropping to a fresh three-month low, below the $4,000 psychological mark during the Asian session on Friday, though the upside seems limited. The Federal Reserve (Fed) recently signaled that there is no urgency to raise interest rates. Traders, however, are still pricing in around an 80% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again at its December policy meeting. Moreover, oil-driven inflation fears underpin prospects for further Fed tightening, which turns out to be a key factor driving flows away from the non-yielding bullion.

In fact, crude oil prices sit near a one-month peak, touched on Tuesday, due to supply concerns stemming from escalating conflict in the Middle East. The fighting between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi movement has escalated sharply, leading to Houthi drone and missile strikes on the kingdom's airports and critical energy infrastructure. In further developments, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that renewed US attacks could prompt Tehran to invade neighbouring countries and hit bases used in US military operations as part of its new offensive strategy.

This comes on top of a report that the US and Israel have drawn up plans for a short but intense military campaign against Iran after the US midterm elections and keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play. Moreover, hawkish Fed expectations help the safe-haven USD to recover slightly from a three-week low, which exerts additional downward pressure on the Gold price. Traders, however, might refrain from placing fresh directional bets and opt to wait for more cues about the Fed's policy path. Hence, the focus will remain on next week's highly anticipated two-day FOMC meeting.

The Fed will announce its decision on Wednesday and is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. In the absence of updated economic projections, investors will scrutinize the accompanying policy statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comments during the post-meeting press conference. This will be followed by the release of the Advance US Q3 GDP report and the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index – the Fed's preferred inflation gauge – next Thursday, which will play a key role in influencing the USD and provide a fresh impetus to the Gold price.

XAU/USD daily chart

Technical AnalysisThe overnight breakdown below a short-term trading range support and a sustained close below the $4,100 mark was seen as a key trigger for XAU/USD bears. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index at 34.34 hovers just above oversold territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at -6.51 stays in negative territory, hinting that downside pressure persists despite some early signs of stabilization. The precious metal, however, shows some resilience below the $4,000 psychological mark, warranting some caution before positioning for further losses.

Meanwhile, any attempted recovery is more likely to attract fresh sellers and fizzle out near the trading range support breakpoint, now turned resistance, near the $4,065-$4,070 region. This is followed by the $4,100 round figure, which, if conquered, could trigger a short-covering rally and lift the XAU/USD pair to the $4,170 intermediate hurdle en route to the $4,200 mark. Sustained strength and acceptance above the latter is needed to back the case for a sustained near-term recovery.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Fed FAQs

Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

There’s not a lot of bullishness in the silver market right now.

After surging to just over $120 per ounce in January, silver corrected and has lost more than half its value.

Given the metal's trajectory over the last 10 months, bearishness is understandable. But as technical analyst Jesse Colombo pointed out in a recent Substack article, many investors delivering silver’s last rites today only started paying attention as silver neared that $120 peak.

“They piled in near the very top, just weeks or even days before silver peaked at $121, only to lose interest when it corrected, as all overheated assets eventually do. Then they simply moved on to what they believe is the latest and greatest hot asset, whether it’s an overvalued and overhyped AI stock, a new cryptocurrency, or whatever else the lemmings are currently piling into.”

Colombo believes these investors have completely missed the big picture.

“Naturally, most of those same investors had practically no interest in silver when I foresaw the bull market beginning in early 2024, when it was still trading in the $20s. Now that silver has cooled off, they are once again nowhere to be found.”

And Colombo thinks they are about to miss out on “the next powerful leg of this bull market.”

“This is the time to be paying close attention and accumulating while it is still quite cheap. The next move is going to take most investors by surprise, and they will only want to pile back in once silver is overheated again and all over the news.”

A cup of SilverColombo said he has been following a “silver bull market roadmap” for the past couple of years. That roadmap is a massive cup-and-handle pattern that's been forming since the 1960s.

A cup-and-handle pattern is an extremely bullish technical indicator.

As Colombo noted, this decades-in-the-making pattern “projects the metal reaching hundreds of dollars per ounce following a breakout.”

That breakout occurred when silver finally surged through $50 last October.

That $50 level served as a firm resistance level for decades. Silver hit that level twice: the first time in the 1980s, and then again nearly two years after the Great Recession. Colombo said that now that silver broke this resistance, history tells us silver is poised for a massive run higher.

“Although silver has since cooled off, the breakout remains very much valid and in play, and I see the next powerful leg higher beginning soon once this necessary cooling-off period is complete.”

After the breakout, Colombo warned that silver was due for a “healthy cooling-off period,” but it would not mark the end of the bull market.

“I continue to stand by that view today.”

Colombo noted that the “relative strength index (RSI)” tracks sentiment in the silver market. The RSI clearly shows that silver became extremely overheated and overbought in late 2025 and early 2026.

Today, the RSI has moderated, revealing that silver is closer to oversold. Colombo said this indicates, “the worst of the correction is behind us and that anyone calling for a sharp crash from here has the odds stacked against them.”

Colombo noted that silver has held the $50 support level throughout the correction.

“This means silver’s breakout remains fully intact and in play as long as it continues to hold above $50, which has now become a key support level.”

Colombo pointed out that silver appears to be forming a “double bottom.” We might see a final flush that pushes silver below $50 before it ultimately bottoms and then off on the next leg higher. But he said this isn’t his “base-case expectation.”

“There is no hard-and-fast rule that says silver must precisely touch the $50 support level before its correction can come to an end.”

The gold-silver ratio is another key technical indicator for silver. This ratio tells you how many ounces of silver it takes to buy an ounce of gold at the current spot price. For instance, a ratio of 70-1 means it takes 70 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold.

In the modern era, the gold-silver ratio has averaged between 40-1 and 60-1. When it rises far above that level, it tends to snap back to the mean as silver prices rise and close the gap.

Colombo notes that the gold-silver ratio is currently in a triangle pattern, a common occurrence when asset prices pause and consolidate.

“In technical analysis, triangle patterns often act as continuation patterns, meaning that once the necessary consolidation or cooling-off period has run its course, the original trend resumes in the same direction, setting the stage for a repeat of the prior move.”

Colombo said that when this pattern breaks down, he expects it will kick off the next phase of the bull market. At that point, silver will likely surge back to its record high of $121 and beyond.

Finally, Colombo said that the fact we never saw true silver mania grip the market supports his belief that this is a short-term correction, not a top and a pending multi-year bear market. He noted that iShares Silver Trust reported a “lukewarm” 30 million ounce increase in silver holdings even as the price increased sixfold.

“That kind of lukewarm interest from American investors is simply not what you would expect to see during a true bubble mania immediately before a violent collapse and years of declining prices. My bet, however, is that the real mania still lies ahead of us and will begin to unfold once silver surpasses its January peak of $121, ultimately taking the metal into the hundreds of dollars per ounce.”

Colombo also noted that American Silver Eagle sales “fell off a cliff” during those years.

“To me, this is further confirmation that silver’s long-term bull market did not end in January 2026. There simply was not enough mainstream investor participation to mark a true secular peak.”

Colombo concludes, asserting that “mainstream investors are notoriously fickle, and that seems to be especially true when it comes to silver.”

“They tend to take an interest only after silver is already posting explosive gains, pile in too late just before a correction, and then blame silver when they lose money, claiming that it is a bad investment. The reality is that the problem is not silver or silver miners, but their own poor timing and investing behavior.”

Colombo said that this correction presents a buying opportunity.

“The time to pay close attention and accumulate is when silver seems boring, and investors are giving up on it, because that is when it is setting up for its next leg higher. I sincerely believe that is where we are today. The 2026 correction has tested investors’ patience, but those who stayed the course will be richly rewarded when silver’s next powerful leg higher begins.”

Societe Generale analysts observe that Gold has formed an interim low near $4,065 and is consolidating in a narrow range. They flag resistance at $4,200/4,225 and warn that failure to break higher could trigger a deeper correction toward the June low at $3,960/3,940 and projections near $3,830, with $4,065 acting as initial support.

Consolidation with downside potential "Gold carved out an interim low near $4,065 earlier this month and has since evolved within a narrow consolidation."

"The upper boundary of this range at $4,200/4,225 represents a short-term resistance zone."

"Failure to overcome this hurdle could denote the risk of a deeper pullback."

"The lower boundary of the consolidation near $4,065 serves as the first support."

"A break below this may extend the decline towards the June low at $3,960/3,940 and projections near $3,830."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Gold fell more than 1% on ‌Thursday as rising oil prices stoked inflation concerns and reinforced expectations that interest rates could stay higher for longer, while investors awaited next week's Federal Reserve meeting for clues on the policy ​outlook.

Spot gold slid 1.3% to $4,085.29 per ounce by 0530 GMT, hitting its ​lowest since October 14. US gold futures for December delivery dropped 1.2% ⁠to $4,100.90.

If oil prices continue to rise, inflation expectations could increase, raising the likelihood ​of higher interest rates over the longer term and weighing on gold, said Kelvin ​Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA.

Oil prices rose on Thursday as more attacks by the Houthis in Saudi Arabia prompted the US to order some diplomats and family members to leave its missions ​in the Kingdom.

Though stubborn inflation, largely driven by high energy prices, has bolstered the ​case for tighter monetary policy, Fed policymakers are expected to remain patient for now.

Traders see just a ‌15% ⁠chance of a rate hike at the Fed's October 27-28 policy meeting next week, but are pricing in a 91% likelihood of an increase in December, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

Markets await next week's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, a key gauge closely ​watched by the central ​bank as it ⁠targets a 2% inflation rate.

Investors anticipate elevated interest rates at both the short and long ends of the curve, reducing gold's ​appeal by increasing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding ​asset, Wong ⁠said.

Spot gold still targets the October 14 low of $4,073 per ounce, as suggested by a wedge. Resistance is at $4,135, a break above which could lead to a gain into ⁠the $4,150-$4,169 range, ​according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.

Among other metals, ​spot silver dropped 3.3% to $56.05, platinum slid 2.2% to $1,593.05 and palladium fell 2.7% to $1,057.32.

India's festival Gold buying peaks with Dhanteras on November 6 and Diwali on November 8, 2026. Last year's season already showed buyers shifting from jewelry to bullion as prices climbed, and this year's opens with a 15 percent import duty and a weaker rupee.

India's jewelry demand fell 24 percent in 2025 to 430.5 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council (WGC), while bar and coin demand climbed 17 percent to 280.4 tonnes. Gold had gained about 73 percent in rupee terms by late December, so the same budget bought far less metal in jewelry form.

The festival quarter widened the gap. Jewelry volumes fell 23 percent to 145.3 tonnes in Q4 even with wedding demand, and bar and coin demand rose 26 percent to 96 tonnes. Jewelry sales still rose 26 percent in rupee terms, so value and volume moved in opposite directions.

Retailers adapted. A bullion dealer cited in Commerzbank's note said jewelers had stocked small coins and bars ahead of Dhanteras and Diwali, and dealer premiums on Gold reached $25 an ounce, up from $15 a week earlier.

What changed in 2026In mid-May, India raised its import duty on Gold from 6 percent to 15 percent, which one analysis called the largest increase on record, to narrow a trade deficit that was weighing on the rupee. Prime Minister Narendra Modi also urged citizens to pause Gold purchases for a year.

Jewelry demand fell 15 percent year on year to 75.1 tonnes in April to June, while bar and coin demand rose 9 percent to 50.3 tonnes. First-half bar and coin buying reached about 113 tonnes, the highest in 13 years.

Source: Gold.orgReuters reported that dealers moved from discounts of up to $6 an ounce to premiums of up to $7 in mid-October, the first premium in more than three months, as the price pullback lifted jewelry purchases. A WGC and Kantar survey of 1,963 consumers (May 22 to June 3) found stronger purchase intent for investment Gold than for jewelry, yet one bullion merchant told Reuters that investors were still holding back as prices fall.

Supply data are mixed. India's September Gold imports fell to $1.8 billion from $9.6 billion a year earlier, trade ministry data showed, and a Mumbai dealer told Reuters the shortfall is tightening domestic supply, while the WGC's second-quarter report called supply adequate.

Why it matters for XAU/USD and the RupeeIndia accounted for 27 percent of global jewelry demand and 16 percent of global bar and coin demand in the second quarter, according to the WGC, so festival buying is a visible input to the physical market behind XAU/USD. Spot Gold trades near $4,170 an ounce, about a quarter below its January record.

The rupee is the other channel. Importers sell rupees to buy the dollars that pay for Gold, and Gold and silver made up about 11 percent of India's imports against 22 percent for oil, according to Money Metals Exchange analysis. In the second quarter, the LBMA Gold price was 37 percent higher than a year earlier while the domestic price was 59 percent higher, a gap the WGC tied to the duty hike and rupee depreciation.

What to watch through November 8Dealer premiums are the first reading. Commerzbank expected last year's premium spike to fade after the holidays, so a premium that holds after Diwali would say more than one during the festival.

October import data will show whether restocking came before the festivals or after. Several large Indian mutual funds also suspended bulk subscriptions to Gold ETFs in mid-October at the market regulator's nudge, Reuters reported, so ETF access is worth tracking too.

A weaker rupee lifts domestic prices even when spot Gold is flat, and the WGC noted that both price dips and price stability have supported purchases. Metals Focus has observed that Indian consumers tend to delay purchases after sharp price increases and then adjust, which would make the winter wedding season a second test of this year's demand. No single reading above predicts the festival total.

Daily iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
The long-term view of the iShares Silver Trust ETF shows a downtrend based on the market’s relationship with both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages at $57.50 and $65.27, respectively.

From a value perspective, the market has been sitting inside a key long-term retracement zone at $54.92 to $41.96. The three bottoms at $49.61, $51.12 and $50.01 may be early signs of accumulation. However, until new money can cross to the strong side of this zone and create enough upside momentum to overcome the moving averages, the iShares Silver Trust ETF is likely to continue to sit inside the long-term retracement zone.

What to Watch
The Fed has not given silver a fresh trade. Oil is keeping inflation on the screen, December rate expectations are still there, and the dollar and yields are firming. That keeps the pressure on the top side of the market. PCE next week is the next major U.S. number.

The primary driver of my downside bias on the weekly chart is the market’s relative position to the 52-week moving average. The trading action since July, however, is showing signs that some investors are recognizing the importance of the $60.835 to $46.48 retracement zone. Overcoming $60.835 will weaken my bearish outlook.

The main swing chart trend and trading below the 50-day moving average are giving me my downside bias. My outlook will strengthen if $55.40 fails as support. It will weaken if buyers can overcome $58.43 with conviction.

In my opinion, SLV ETF is more of an investment vehicle than a trading vehicle like XAGUSD so my bias is more neutral than bearish. From the all-time high at $109.83, a decline of 50% to 61.8% in just 10 months fits the definition of a value area for long-term investors.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

Gold Price Holds Above $4,100 as HSBC Defends Its Longer-Term Role HSBC sees lasting support for gold from reserve diversification, but forced selling can overwhelm that demand while higher interest rates weigh. The gold price in US dollars held around $4,134 an ounce at 15:19 BST on Tuesday, leaving bullion roughly 5.4% lower over the past month despite continuing demand for protection against fiscal and geopolitical risks.

HSBC Asset Management remains positive about gold's longer-term role, but cautions that the metal may offer little protection during an abrupt equity sell-off.

Bank of America's forecasts allow for that difficult near-term period: it projects $4,000 an ounce for the fourth quarter of 2026 before $5,000 in the second and third quarters of 2027.

Why gold can fall when investors seek safety HSBC writes: “But recent market action has shown gold failing to hedge against equity drawdowns. With leveraged capital crowded into gold, tumbling stocks trigger margin calls that force investors to unwind positions to raise cash.”

Gold can therefore be sold to meet losses in other markets, rather than because its owners have abandoned concerns about government debt or the purchasing power of currencies.

Evidence from September shows how different groups of buyers and sellers can pull prices in opposing directions.

The World Gold Council recorded $10bn of global gold ETF inflows during the month, yet managed-money net futures positions contracted by $12bn.

The council said: “This futures liquidation likely contributed to September’s price decline, highlighting the divergence between ETF and derivatives market flows.”

The council also identified rising Treasury yields and a stronger Dollar as pressures on bullion.

The figures do not measure the same transactions and should not be netted against one another, but they show why evidence of buying alone cannot establish that prices have found a floor.

HSBC cautions: "So although gold looks to be a robust hedge against systemic risks in a “multi-polar” world, it’s not guaranteed to work as a short-term volatility dampener."

The buyers behind the longer-term case HSBC says “there is still a compelling strategic rationale for the metal in portfolios as geopolitical fragmentation and central bank reserve diversification keep demand supported.”

It adds: "The “debasement trade” of shifting capital into “hard assets” such as gold can continue as concerns over debt and inflation linger."

That argument concerns demand to reduce exposure to currencies and government liabilities over time.

The World Gold Council's latest central-bank figures provide some support: reported net purchases reached 39 tonnes in August, with established buyers continuing their accumulation programmes.

Those purchases predate the latest market turbulence, so they cannot demonstrate how official buyers have responded to October's decline.

HSBC offers no numerical gold target in this assessment.

BofA continues to project an uneven path towards $5,000, with weakness before the stronger part of 2027.

Its metals team identifies the immediate obstacles: “The Iran war, higher oil prices, rising rates and a stronger USD are near-term headwinds.”

Higher interest rates increase the income forgone by holding bullion, while expensive energy can delay relief by sustaining inflation and pressure for further tightening.

BofA nevertheless says: “The wider macro environment, including the US’ unorthodox economic policies are ultimately supportive.”

The bank adds: “The hawkish Fed tilt will likely cap prices near-term”.

Gold Price FAQ Does HSBC have a gold price target?

Its assessment makes a positive longer-term case for gold without setting a numerical target.

When does BofA expect gold at $5,000?

BofA projects $5,000 an ounce for the second and third quarters of 2027, following a weaker fourth quarter of 2026.

Why can gold fall despite demand for safe assets?

Leveraged investors may sell gold to meet demands for cash elsewhere, while higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding it.

Gold traded at a premium in India last week for the first time in three months. This reflects the combined effect of tightening supply and improving demand.

Dealers reported premiums as high as $7 an ounce over domestic spot prices. That compares with discounts in the $5-to-$6 range the previous week.

Indian gold demand has improved as prices fell even as the festive buying season kicked off.

During the first week of October, Indian gold prices fell to ₹145,538 per 10 grams, the lowest level in nearly two months. According to the Times of India, “The correction brought more buyers into the market compared with the previous week and also resulted in sellers offering smaller discounts.”

The falling price coincided with the beginning of the festive season in September. This is considered an auspicious time to buy gold. The festival season starts in September, building into Navratri (Oct. 11), and peaking around Dhanteras (Nov. 6) and Diwali (Nov. 8). Buying typically continues into the winter wedding season.

On the supply side, Indian gold imports plunged by 45 percent in August and slumped again in September, falling from $2.3 ​billion to $1.8 billion according to preliminary data.

Imports typically pick up in late summer as dealers stock up on metal for the fall buying season. However, the government has aggressively tried to curb imports.

The Indian government announced the 9 percent duty increase in May. The change pushed the import tax on gold and silver from 6 to 15 percent. The move came as India struggled with a surging trade deficit that is pressuring its currency.

Oil accounts for around 22 percent of the nation's imports. The sudden spike in oil prices due to the U.S.-Iran war has hit India particularly hard. The country imports nearly 85 percent of its fuel, and about 50 percent of its crude imports flow through the Strait of Hormuz.

With both gold and oil prices spiking, India’s import bill has exploded. The country’s merchandise trade deficit topped $330 billion in the financial year ending March 2026. That was up from over $280 billion a year ago, a 17.9 percent increase.

The trade situation has put significant downward pressure on the rupee.

Gold and silver make up about 11 percent of India’s imports. The government raised import duties, hoping to limit metal flowing into the country. This will theoretically close that massive trade deficit and support the rupee.

So far, the move has proved effective, but it’s starting to create shortages of metal within the country.

More recently, several large Indian mutual funds issued public notices suspending bulk subscriptions to gold ETFs. According to Reuters, “The decision was taken following a nudge from the ​Securities and Exchange Board of India.”

While government intervention can limit imports, it’s unlikely to curb Indian’s appetite for gold.

When the government announced the import duty increase, Metals Focus pointed out that Indian gold and silver demand has historically remained resilient in a higher-tax environment. This reflects Indians' deep cultural connection to precious metals and their value as a store of wealth. As the rupee continues to depreciate, gold will become increasingly attractive.

According to Metals Focus analysts, “Consumers often delay purchases initially following sharp price increases but typically adjust to higher price levels over time. In addition, elevated duties could encourage a recovery in unofficial flows, which had collapsed following the 2024 duty reduction.”

That’s reflected in resilient festival season demand despite higher prices.

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The minor range is $61.74 to $55.56. Its 50% level at $58.65 is the nearest upside target. Trader reaction to this level will set the tone.

A sustained move over $58.65 will indicate the presence of counter-trend buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum, buyers could try to break out over the two main tops at $61.74 and $62.45. Overtaking these tops could drive the market into a short-term retracement zone at $63.81 to $65.75. Inside this zone is the 50-day moving average at $64.41.

A failure to overcome the pivot will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a retest of last week’s low at $55.56.

What to Watch There is no fresh news driving the early move. The trade is coming from the yield pullback and the dollar’s retreat from last week’s high. If the 10-year yield continues to work lower and the Dollar Index breaks last week’s low at 101.58, silver buyers have a chance to test $58.43 with momentum behind them. A recovery in either market would put the focus back on $55.40.

For spot silver, with the main trend down on the swing chart and the market below the 50-day moving average, my bias is to the downside. I will be watching the reaction to the pivot at $58.43 to determine if seller rejection of the level leads to another round of selling or if a breakout over the pivot leads to a counter-trend rally, thereby weakening my bearish outlook.

For December Comex silver futures, my bias is to the downside, but this outlook will weaken if counter-trend buyers overcome the pivot at $58.65.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

Gold and silver find support from falling Treasury yields, but persistent inflation and Fed rate hike risks could limit their recovery.

Gold (XAU) rose towards $4,183 in early Asian trading on Monday as US Treasury yields continue to drop. Concerns about AI funding needs and shipping risk in the Middle East pushed investors towards government bonds.

Oil prices also eased after Trump waived some Russian sanctions, but the policy remains under review. However, Brent oil trades above $108 and leaves the cost of energy elevated. In my view, the drop in Treasury yields could support further gains in both metals. But another surge in oil could revive fears of inflation and weaken the recovery.

The rate hikes by the Fed remain the main threat to the gold and silver outlook. US inflation increased to 3.7% in September from 3.4% in August. Gasoline prices jumped 9.1% during the month. The market expects a pause in October, but expectations for a hike in December still remain at 85%.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave no clear signal about the next move. The high rates could strengthen the US dollar and renew pressure on both metals. Silver (XAG) could face additional pressure if the high cost of borrowing weakens industrial demand. This leaves room for a rebound but a strong recovery needs further relief in yields and the US dollar.

Gold Price Forecast: Recovery Faces Resistance at $4,200–$4,250 The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price is still trading at the support of the triangle pattern that has been forming since May 2025. The price remains below the 50- and 200-day SMAs, and the RSI remains below the midline. This suggests a negative trend and indicates that prices remain under pressure.

The immediate resistance in the gold price remains the $4,200 region. A break above $4,200 will likely push the price towards $4,330. However, the gold price needs to break above the $4,520 area at the 200-day SMA to indicate that the bottom is in and open the way for a strong rally in the gold market.

The weekly chart for spot gold also shows that the price is consolidating below the ascending trend line that stretches from the October 2023 lows. However, the price must break below $3,950 to indicate a strong drop and a deeper correction. However, if the price recovers successfully above the ascending trend line at $4,300, it will likely confirm a positive trend and open the way for further upside towards the $5,000 level.

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The 4-hour chart for spot gold also shows that $4,200 remains the key resistance in the short term. The price must break above the $4,200-$4,250 zone to signal a recovery in the short term. However, a break below the ascending trend line at $4,070 will likely push prices further down towards the $3,900-$4,000 area.

Silver Price Forecast: Break Above $64 Could Open Path to $72 The daily chart for spot silver shows that the price produced a rebound from the $55 support zone. The price must break above the $64 area to open the way for further upside towards the 200-day SMA at $72. A recovery above $72 is required to push prices towards $89.

On the other hand, a break below $55 will open the way for a further drop towards the $45 support area. The RSI also entered oversold territory as the price reached the $55 support. However, a break below $55 will likely push the RSI into oversold territory. If the silver price continues to drop, it will likely mark a long-term bottom at the $45 support zone.

The 4-hour chart for spot silver also shows strong consolidation in prices above the $55 area. The price remains between $55 and $63. A break of either of these levels is required to push prices in the next direction.

A break below $55 may push prices towards the $50 area, as indicated by the lower boundary of the descending wedge pattern. However, a break above $63 is required to push prices up to the $72 region.

What to Watch Next Gold and silver prices could extend their rebound if Treasury yields continue to drop. However, high oil prices and the risk of further rate hikes by the Fed could limit gains by keeping inflation pressures elevated. Gold needs to break above $4,200-$4,250 to strengthen the recovery, while silver needs to clear $63-$64. On the downside, a break below $3,950 in gold or $55 in silver could open the way for deeper losses. Both metals need further relief in yields and the US dollar to build a stronger recovery.

Read more: Falling Yields Fuel Rebound in Gold and Silver Despite Hot PPI

Muhammad Umair is a finance MBA and engineering PhD. As a seasoned financial analyst specializing in currencies and precious metals, he combines his multidisciplinary academic background to deliver a data-driven, contrarian perspective. As founder of Gold Predictors, he leads a team providing advanced market analytics, quantitative research, and refined precious metals trading strategies.

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Spot gold weekly chart shows larger trend structure Weekly Structure Hints at a Trend Reversal The weekly chart provides a perspective that is less apparent on the daily timeframe. This week formed a higher weekly high and higher weekly low, signaling an attempted reversal in the bearish correction. Although the breakout was not confirmed by a daily or weekly close above last week’s high of $4,208, it suggests improving underlying demand and leaves open the possibility of another attempt to break above the two-week consolidation range.

Breakout Triggers Define the Bullish Case A move above the 20-day moving average would provide an initial sign of strength and could attract additional bullish momentum. However, a decisive advance above the recent lower swing high of $4,226 is needed to trigger a bullish reversal signal in the daily trend structure. Another earlier sign of strength would be seen on a rise above this week’s high of $4,217, as a rise above it would signal renewed strength in the weekly advance. A sustained move above the relevant swing high would also reinforce the potential for a new advance from the $4,066 support area, following the initial recovery from the early-August consolidation low.

ABCD Pattern Points Toward $4,821 An upside breakout would open the way toward a measured-move target near $4,821 (D), projected by the rising ABCD pattern on the chart. Price symmetry for the two upswings converges at that level, making it a potential resistance zone. A decisive breakout above this target, however, would signal continued strength and expose the next upside resistance zone. Until gold clears those near-term resistance levels, the ability to hold support above $4,066 remains central to the potential recovery.

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Gold (XAU/USD) reverses a modest Asian session dip on Friday, though any meaningful appreciation seems elusive amid a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick. The energy-driven acceleration in US inflation lifted market bets for an imminent rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Moreover, US bond yields seem to have stabilized following Thursday's steep decline, which, along with escalating tensions in the Middle East, seems to underpin the safe-haven USD. This, in turn, might cap the upside for the precious metal as traders keenly await Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Wednesday reported a broad increase in consumer prices in September as the US-Israeli war with Iran kept oil prices elevated. Adding to this, the US Producer Price Index (PPI), published on Thursday, advanced 1.3% last month, marking the largest gain since March 2022, and the yearly rate soared to 6.3%. Excluding the ​volatile food and energy components, the core PPI climbed 0.7% and 5% on a monthly and yearly basis, respectively, suggesting that inflation is broadening out beyond energy products. Investors, however, seem convinced that the Fed will keep rates unchanged later this month.

Meanwhile, CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates over a 90% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again at its December policy meeting. Hence, Warsh's remarks at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group, in Bangkok, will be scrutinized for more cues about the Fed's future policy path. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the precious metal. In the meantime, persistent geopolitical uncertainties turn out to be another factor acting as a tailwind for the Greenback.

In fact, the Iran-backed Houthi group carried out a deadly missile attack targeting the presidential palace, the seat of Yemen's Saudi-backed and internationally recognised government in the southern city of Aden. Adding to this, French Foreign Minister Pascal Confavreux confirmed that France has started deploying its military assets in Saudi Arabia. Adding to this, the US military developed strike plans that include 'mother of all bombs' against Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear sites. This raises the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East, which might continue to support the USD and cap the upside for gold.

XAU/USD 4-hour chart

Technical AnalysisThe XAU/USD pair, so far, has been struggling to find acceptance above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and remains below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-August upswing. That said, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is positive and rising, hinting at strengthening upside momentum. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 56 suggests mildly bullish conditions without reaching overbought territory.

However, it will still be prudent to wait for a sustained move beyond the $4,200 mark and the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at $4,238 before positioning for further gains toward the next upside barriers near the 50.0% retracement at $4,325 and the 38.2% level at $4,412. On the downside, immediate support is offered by the 78.6% Fibo. retracement at $4,115, which is followed by the $4,075-$4,065 horizontal support. A convincing break below the latter would make the Gold vulnerable to challenging the Fibonacci structural floor at $3,957.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

Several large Indian mutual funds issued public notices late on Thursday suspending bulk subscriptions to gold exchange-traded funds, just ahead ​of the festive season when investor demand typically rises.

The notices from the ‌fund houses, including Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund, UTI Mutual Fund and HDFC Mutual Fund, did not cite a reason for the move. There is no restriction on redemptions from these funds.

The decision ​was taken following a nudge from the Securities and Exchange Board of India, ​according to a mutual fund executive familiar with the discussions. Two ⁠bullion industry officials confirmed the halt had followed discussions with the market regulator.

The sources ​declined to be identified as they are not permitted to comment on discussions with ​the regulator.

A spokesperson for SEBI did not respond to a Reuters request for comment outside business hours.

The Indian rupee has been under pressure this year due to a surge in global oil prices, which ​have inflated the country's import bill, and heavy selling by foreign investors in Indian ​equities. Strong demand for gold has further weighed on the currency, prompting the government to raise ‌import ⁠duties on gold and silver earlier this year.

India, the world's largest consumer of silver and second-largest consumer of gold, relies on imports to meet most of its demand, a dependence that can sometimes widen its trade deficit.

Gold imports fell to $1.8 billion in September, ​from $2.3 billion in August. ​However, Indians will ⁠celebrate Dussehra in October and Diwali in early November, when buying gold is considered auspicious.

Inflows into gold and silver ETFs surged ​during last year's festive season as investors turned to precious metals ​amid lackluster ⁠stock market returns.

The move is surprising, as gold and silver imports have fallen sharply over the past two months from a year earlier and have not contributed to the ⁠trade deficit, ​said a dealer at a private bank that ​supplies bullion to ETFs.

"It looks more like a precautionary measure to avoid a surge in imports in October," ​the dealer said.

Peru and Mexico both mined less silver than a year earlier, and Mexico was the one expected to grow, so the supply case that silver holders rely on just got a little firmer.

Metals Focus and the Silver Institute forecast world mine supply to slip slightly this year. They expect gains in Mexico and Morocco to be more than offset by declines, mainly in Peru and Argentina. Peru is falling as forecast. Mexico's latest monthly figure, for July, went the other way. Then on October 8 a strike was formally declared at San Dimas, one of Mexico's larger silver mines, where work had already stopped. One month does not overturn a full-year forecast, and the ounces involved are small next to this year's expected shortfall. But the direction favours silver holders over the coming year, even while interest rates drive the price in the short run.

The price has not reflected any of this yet. Silver fell about 6% on October 14. US consumer prices had risen faster than expected, and markets moved toward another Federal Reserve rate rise. Kitco's late-afternoon reading put silver at $55.41 and gold at $4,098.80. That is a gold-silver ratio of about 74. At that reading silver was about 22.7% below its 2025 closing price, on MetalCharts' figures. Silver pays no interest, so it becomes less attractive to hold when bonds pay more after inflation. Real yields, the return on bonds after inflation, and the dollar have been the main near-term influences on the price this year, though the daily link is not one-to-one. At Golden Meadow® I track both sides: the price, which answers to rates in the short run, and the balance of supply and demand, which builds the longer-term case.

A strike at one of Mexico's larger Silver minesWorkers at First Majestic's San Dimas mine in Durango stopped work on September 18. On October 8 about 800 of them, in two sections of Mexico's national miners' union, made it a formal strike. Extraction of gold and silver is halted. The union cites safety conditions, worn equipment, breaches of the labour contract and a productivity bonus. As of October 13, local reports said work remained completely halted, with no agreement and no date set for a return.

The dispute was already showing in the company's numbers. San Dimas produced 41% less silver in the third quarter than a year earlier, according to First Majestic's own release. The company blames 12 operating days lost to the dispute. It also cites lower grades, meaning less silver in each tonne of ore, which it links to the dispute as well. At last year's pace of output, each further month of strike removes roughly half a million ounces.

That quarterly fall needs reading with care. It mixes the strike with lower grades. Ore that is not mined during a strike can be mined later, so the quarter overstates any permanent loss of supply.

Peru and Mexico both mined lessIn August, I looked at what cut silver output in Mexico, Peru and Chile at once. The latest official figures point the same way, and they measure silver directly rather than estimate it.

Peru's mines ministry reported less silver for January to July than in the same months of 2025. The fall was 1.64 million ounces, or 2.4%. Silver output in July on its own rose 0.5%, so the decline came earlier in the year. Much of Peru's silver comes out of zinc and lead ore, and Peru's zinc output fell 22.2% in July. That fits the survey, which expected Peru's decline to come from lower output at its lead and zinc mines.

In Mexico, the statistics agency INEGI put July's mined silver 4.3% below a year earlier. That is a loss of about 0.58 million ounces in one month. Mexico also publishes a series for refined silver, which fell 2.3%. The mined series is the one that measures what came out of the ground.

Chile adds a copper signal, which is not the same as a silver signal. Copper mines are the second-largest source of byproduct silver, the silver recovered as a side product of mining another metal. Chile's copper output fell 12.7% in August, and workers at the Centinela copper mine went on strike on October 7. No Chilean source publishes the silver in that copper, so it is a pointer rather than a measurement.

Sources: Peru mines ministry via REDIMIN | INEGI, mining bulletin, September 2026 | First Majestic Q3 2026 (SEC) | REDIMIN, Peru zinc output | La Jornada, San Dimas strike | Meganoticias, strike status October 13 | El Siglo de Durango, strike declared | Endeavour Silver Q3 2026 (SEC) | PSU Connect, Hindustan Zinc | Cochilco data via CNN Chile | World Silver Survey 2026, Metals Focus and the Silver Institute

The San Dimas fall mixes the strike with lower grades, and ore not mined during a strike can be mined later, so the quarterly figure overstates a permanent supply loss. The Hindustan Zinc figure is saleable refined silver from an integrated miner and smelter, taken from a secondary report; the exchange filing was not seen.

What pulls the other waySupply is rising in some places, and an honest reading has to count them. India's Hindustan Zinc reported 20% more refined silver in the July to September quarter, about 0.93 million ounces. That is saleable metal from a company that both mines and smelts, taken from a secondary report. It measures something different from Mexico's mined output, so it cannot be subtracted from Mexico's decline. It does show supply growing elsewhere.

In Mexico itself, Endeavour Silver's total silver output across its mines rose 19% as its new Terronera mine ramped up. Discovery Silver's Cordero project in Chihuahua received its federal environmental permits on October 6. The bank BMO's model puts first production in the second half of 2029, so it adds no supply for years.

What this means to Silver investorsSilver that is used has to come from somewhere: a mine, recycling or a stockpile. When mines and recyclers supply less than the world uses, stockpiles fill the gap. Metals Focus and the Silver Institute forecast that gap at 46.3 million ounces this year, which would make 2026 the sixth year in a row of shortfall. Other things being equal, less silver mined in Peru, Mexico or at San Dimas widens it.

The size is modest. The measured declines in Peru and Mexico add up to about 2.2 million ounces. They cover different periods, so this is not a global estimate. A strike that lasts through November would add about another million ounces. None of it is large next to the forecast shortfall.

The direction matters more than the size. The survey expected Mexico to grow this year and soften Peru's decline. July went the other way, and one of the country's larger silver mines is now shut. A single month does not overturn a full-year forecast. Mexico's August figures, due around October 21, will show whether July was a blip or the start of a run. Third-quarter results from the larger producers follow from late October.

So this is good news for silver holders on the supply side, at a small scale, and it matters over the coming year rather than the coming week. The price fell on interest rates this week and may keep answering to them for a while. The supply side is what builds the longer-term case, and in the latest data it got firmer.

Silver price (XAG/USD) is up 1.5% to near $56.50 during the European trading session on Thursday. The white metal holds ground near $55.40 as the US Dollar (USD) and United States (US) Treasury Yields are under pressure, with financial markets remaining confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold interest rates steady in the policy meeting later this month.

In the European trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is down 0.4% to near 102.10 even after recovering some of its early losses. Technically, a lower US Dollar makes the Silver price a favorable risk-reward bet for investors.

10-year US Treasury Yields have slid to near 5.09%, the lowest level seen in three weeks. Theoretically, a decline in US bond yields results in an improvement in the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

Why Fed prospects for October matters now?On Wednesday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September showed that price pressures grew at a faster-than-expected pace; however, they failed to uplift hawkish Fed expectations for the October meeting.

The CME FedWatch tool shows that the odds of the Fed hiking interest rates in the policy meeting later this meeting have increased marginally to 27% from 22% seen before the data release.

Hawkish Fed prospects for the October meeting were already lower as several policymakers had indicated no urgency for interest rate hikes. However, financial markets were awaiting the US inflation report, assuming that it might influence interest rate expectations.

US PPI data in focusMeanwhile, investors shift their focus to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for September, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The US PPI will likely show that the headline inflation at the producer level dropped to 5.3% YoY from the previous reading of 5.4%.

Silver Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $56.63, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as price holds firmly below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $60.73. The EMA’s position overhead suggests that recent rebounds are being capped by prevailing supply, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 34.75 hovers just above oversold territory, hinting that downside momentum is still dominant but starting to look stretched.

On the topside, the 20-day EMA at $60.73 is the immediate resistance to beat before any more meaningful recovery can develop. On the downside, the July 17 low at $54.77 appears to be the crucial support level.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Market context and the 7th-order institutional demand defenseOn the 4-hour execution continuum, XAU/USD (Gold vs US Dollar) has transitioned into a tight structural compression, with spot price stabilizing near the 4,135.84 mark. Following a prolonged liquidation phase from the 4,700+macro highs, sellers have encountered a formidable institutional liquidity threshold. Downside probes have repeatedly failed to generate continuation, stalling against the monolithic bid foundation established across the 4,040–$4,090 pricing corridor.

This inability of sellers to force follow-through represents textbook Sell Volume Absorption. Rather than accelerating downward, price action has locked into a horizontal base. The market is physically coiling against an immovable wall of limit buy orders, signaling that the directional momentum of the preceding decline has reached terminal exhaustion.

Cluster density analysis (Sidebar architecture)Data aggregation via the SMAS Sidebar 3D exposes the dense structural friction defending the current consolidation:

The underlying titanium foundation: Directly anchoring current price action lies a 7th-Order Institutional Demand Super-Cluster (7TF: M5-M15-M30-H1-H2-H4-W1) spanning $4,040 – $4,090. Seven independent temporal horizons—from the 5-minute microstructure pulse to the macro Weekly baseline—have synchronized their confirmed demand footprints at this exact coordinate, creating a powerful multi-timeframe floor.Overhead resistance echelons: Any relief rotation will face layered supply barriers:An immediate 7th-Order Tactical Supply Cluster (7TF: M5-M15-M30-H1-H2-H3-H4) concentrated across $4,195 – $4,245.An intermediate ceiling at the 8th-Order Institutional Massif (8TF: M5-M15-M30-H1-H2-H3-H4-D1) spanning $4,340 – $4,430.Macro supply slabs positioned higher up across the $4,500 – $4,680 zone.Multi-timeframe phase telemetry (Structure balance 3D)The SMAS Structure Balance 3D module captures an inflection state of structural equilibrium, flashing an official BALANCED [7 vs 6] status:

Residual Intraday Drag: Intermediate frames still carry historical downside bias: M30 (-38°), H1 (-28°), H2 (-31°), H3 (-18°), and H4 (-8°). However, the visible deceleration from -38° down to just -8° on H4 confirms that selling velocity is rapidly drying up.Micro-Impulse Turnaround: Rapid tactical horizons have already initiated positive phase inversion: M3 (+16°), M5 (+3°), M10 (+7°), and M15 (+8°) have flipped green, confirming active limit accumulation.Macro Baseline Anchor: The senior macro horizon W1 remains firmly bullish at +26°, acting as a steady structural anchor.Telemetry Synthesis: This divergence between fading intraday selling and micro-buying against the weekly foundation confirms a classic Spring Compression Pattern, setting the stage for a mean-reversion rebound.Vector geometry and channel trajectory (Structure engine 3D)The SMAS Structure Engine confirms clear trend exhaustion on the active dynamic channel:

The channel's invariant slope angle currently reads at -18.2°, reflecting significant downward deceleration compared to earlier impulse phases.Price action is pressing directly into the channel's lower dynamic boundary. Having absorbed the downward move at these outer structural rails, directional sellers lack the momentum for an expansion breakdown, indicating a high-probability rotation back toward the channel's central equilibrium axis.Execution protocol and quantitative trade parametersWith sellers failing to breach the 7th-order demand foundation and phase balance stabilizing at the weekly anchor, an asymmetric Long Mean-Reversion Scenario is activated:

Order type: Long Accumulation / Buy Limit.Execution coordinate range: $4,110 – $4,138 (Current price: 4,135.84).Structural invalidation (Stop Loss): $4,025 (Placed safely below the 7TF titanium demand floor and the W1 base; calculated risk: ~85–110 points).Target objective 1 (Take Profit 1): $4,235 (+100 to +125 points; Retest of the 7TF supply cluster perimeter. Protocol: Liquidate 50% volume and systematically move Stop Loss to Breakeven +0.1H).Target objective 2 (Take Profit 2, Final): $4,360 (+225 to +250 points; Lower boundary of the 8th-Order Institutional Supply Massif 8TF).Risk / Reward Ratio: 1 : 2.45.

XAU/USD Forecast: Goldman's $5,235 Outlook Faces Fresh Inflation Test Goldman Sachs expects gold prices to recover over twelve months, but stronger US inflation puts renewed pressure on its case for limited Fed tightening. Goldman Sachs's forecast for gold to reach $5,235 an ounce in twelve months faces a more difficult near-term rates outlook after US underlying inflation proved stronger than expected on Wednesday.

Spot bullion traded near $4,090 an ounce, down around 1.6% against its previous close, leaving the bank's projection roughly 28% above the latest price.

Image: Gold price vs USD reaction to US inflation release on Wednesday. Goldman's optimism rests heavily on central-bank purchases, while its strategists acknowledge that tighter monetary policy can discourage investment demand well before those longer-term buyers lift prices.

The bank had already lowered its end-2026 gold target to $4,650 an ounce, explaining that "a more hawkish Fed might weigh on ETF demand in the near term."

Inflation leaves gold competing with interest income The September US inflation release showed core prices rising 0.3% on the month, above Goldman's pre-release estimate of 0.24%.

Higher expected interest rates raise the income investors give up by holding gold, which pays none.

Goldman's strategists had identified that pressure before Wednesday's figures: "Commodities remain volatile given Middle East tensions, while more hawkish central banks and rising real rates have also weighed on Gold."

The latest pressure followed a respite earlier in the year, when energy prices and market inflation expectations fell together.

Goldman writes: "Market-based inflation momentum fell sharply in Q2, ahead of the macro data, as energy prices and breakeven inflation declined, unlocking rate relief and supporting risky assets."

"Since Q3, however, it has risen again amid higher energy prices and ongoing Middle East tensions."

Its economists still expect that renewed inflation pressure to fade.

"The global bond sell-off accelerated owing to sticky inflation and Middle East tensions combined with resilient growth, fiscal concerns, hawkish central banks and intensifying capital competition from the AI capex boom."

"The rise has been led by front-end and real yields, leaving market pricing considerably more hawkish than our economists' baseline, which assumes limited core inflationary pressures will constrain central bank tightening."

"Given our baseline of normalising inflation, peaking energy prices and more dovish central banks, 10-year bonds should gradually move from headwind to hedge in portfolios."

Wednesday's core reading complicates that argument because the rise cannot be attributed entirely to food and energy.

It does not establish a new twelve-month inflation trend, but it supplies less reassurance for a quick retreat in rate expectations.

Goldman also identifies a route to lower yields through weaker growth rather than an immediate improvement in inflation.

Its strategists write: "The clearest route to a near-term peak in global yields would be tighter financial conditions weakening growth sentiment; recent pressure in corporate and sovereign credit suggests the sell-off may already be approaching a speed limit."

Reserve buying supports the longer view Goldman describes continued central-bank diversification as "the main structural driver of their constructive gold view", distinguishing reserve managers' purchases from the exchange-traded fund demand most exposed to changes in the Fed outlook.

The split between longer-term buyers and rate-sensitive investors also featured in Exchange Rates UK's coverage of BofA's uneven gold recovery outlook.

Goldman's analysis gives European investors another reason to hold bullion, beyond anticipating lower US interest rates.

"We also see more value in Gold for European investors that try to reduce EUR exposure and hedge further increases in EU sovereign risk premia."

Gold can therefore attract demand as protection against European fiscal instability while still suffering from higher US borrowing costs.

Goldman's caution on the timing of rate relief is explicit: "Although front-end rates are increasingly skewed to the downside, energy-price volatility and monetary policy uncertainty remain elevated."

Gold prices FAQ What is Goldman Sachs's twelve-month gold forecast?

Goldman forecasts $5,235 per troy ounce in twelve months, roughly 28% above the Wednesday price used in this article.

Has Goldman become more cautious about gold?

Its end-2026 target was reduced to $4,650, reflecting the risk that a more hawkish Fed restrains ETF demand.

Why does Goldman still expect a gold recovery?

It identifies central-bank diversification as the main structural support, alongside a broader expectation that inflation and rate pressure will ease.

The Chinese government has tried to internationalize the yuan and raise its stature as a global currency for decades. Hong Kong's ascension as a prominent yuan-denominated gold trading hub is giving that effort a big boost.

S&P Global Ratings managing director Charles Chang told CNBC that Hong Kong's evolution as a gold trading center and the ensuing elevation of the yuan's status could ultimately undercut the dollar.

“As those trading volumes grow, there would be a growing volume of the physical gold trade that is denominated in RMB and not linked in USD.”

Chang said the biggest challenge to internationalizing the yuan is finding places to use it. Hong Kong’s rapidly developing gold-trading platform coupled with Beijing’s aggressive gold buying creates such an avenue.

“In terms of gold particularly, if the RMB that the buyer receives can be converted to gold, then it gives more channels for the spending to be done.”

Hong Kong's quest to become a global gold hub

Earlier this summer, Hong Kong launched trial operations of a gold clearing and settlement system, putting the region in a position to challenge Western dominance of the global gold market.

The government-owned clearing system reportedly “mirrors” the financial infrastructure used by the LBMA in London.

When unveiling the system, Hong Kong Precious Metals Central Clearing Company CEO John Lee Ka-chiue said the company will offer “a comprehensive suite of services ranging from gold deposits and withdrawals to transaction settlements in the over-the-counter market in Hong Kong,” adding that a new gold price ticker – HAU – would be introduced to “ensure that Hong Kong gold prices are fully accessible to global market participants.”

To facilitate the clearing system, the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) opened its first offshore gold delivery vault in Hong Kong.

At the time, Secretary for Financial Services & the Treasury Christopher Hui said that the SGE's decision to establish its first International Board certified vault in the special administrative region “offers international investors an option for delivering gold offshore, marking a key stride in the internationalization of the country's gold market, extending the global footprint of renminbi-denominated gold trading, and further strengthening Hong Kong's role in the regional market.”

Over the next three years, Hong Kong plans to expand its gold vaulting capacity from 150 to over 2,000 tonnes.

“If Hong Kong can complete this transaction, then it would become one of the largest gold trading centers in the world,” Chang said.

Last month, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) announced plans to launch a yuan-denominated gold futures contract early next year.

According to the South China Morning Post, the move aims to advance two priorities outlined in the city’s five-year plan announced last week:

Promoting yuan internationalizationDeveloping Hong Kong’s gold marketChinese central bank Gold buying also boosts YuanMeanwhile, the People’s Bank of China continues the aggressive expansion of its gold reserves.

The Chinese central bank has reported an increase in its official gold reserves for 23 straight months, including a 23-tonne addition to its official holdings in September. This followed 20-tonne purchases in July and August.

Year-to-date, the People’s Bank of China has reported 80 additional tonnes added to its gold holdings.

And the Chinese have bought a lot more gold than that. According to data parsed by the renowned Money Metals researcher, the Chinese central bank currently sits on more than 5,000 tonnes of monetary gold in Beijing – more than TWICE what Chinese officials publicly admit.

Guotai Junan International chief economist Hau Zhou said this consistent gold buying “reinforces the credibility of the renminbi’s internationalization drive.”

“By steadily increasing gold reserves, Beijing is strengthening the long-term backing of its financial system and reducing reliance on dollar-denominated reserve assets. While gold alone will not determine the RMB’s global role, it enhances confidence in the currency and supports broader efforts to expand its use in trade, investment and official reserves.”

Nanhua Futures head of precious metals and new energy research Xia Yingying said gold accumulation by China and other central banks will “reduce global reliance” on U.S. Treasuries and dollar reserves.

“In the medium to long term, it will gradually weaken the U.S. dollar’s monopolistic position in the global reserve system.”

A problem for the U.S.While the dollar won’t likely fall from its perch as a global reserve currency, even modest de-dollarization is problematic for the United States.

The U.S. depends on global demand for dollars.

The greenback’s role as the world's reserve currency is the only reason the U.S. can borrow, spend, and run massive budget deficits to the extent it does. It creates a built-in global demand for dollars and dollar-denominated assets. This absorbs the Federal Reserve’s money creation and helps maintain dollar strength despite the Federal Reserve’s inflationary policies.

A de-dollarization of the world economy could cause a dollar glut. The U.S. currency could further depreciate. At the extreme, global de-dollarization could spark a currency crisis. You and I would feel the impact through higher price inflation, eating away at the dollar's purchasing power. In the worst-case scenario, it could lead to hyperinflation.

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades in a tight range at around $60.30 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The white metal consolidates as investors shift their focus to the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, which will be released on Wednesday.

The inflation data is expected to have a significant impact of Federal Reserve (Fed’s) interest rate expectations.

Strategists at OCBC note that markets “currently expect the Fed to remain on hold in October before delivering a fully priced 25bp rate hike in December.” They argue that the “key question is whether upcoming CPI data can alter that sequencing by bringing forward expectations for further tightening.”

OCBC added that while consensus forecasts point to “firmer headline inflation due to higher energy costs, core inflation is expected to remain relatively contained.”

In their view, “if core inflation moderates as expected, markets could further trim expectations for additional Fed tightening.” OCBC adds that “it would likely take a core CPI print of 0.4% m/m or higher to materially shift market pricing and strengthen the case for earlier Fed action.”

According to FXs Economic Calendar, the US headline inflation rose to 3.7% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 3.4% in August. The core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy items – is seen arriving at 2.5% YoY, higher than the previous reading of 2.4%.

During the European trade, the 10-year US Treasury Yields are down almost 1% to near 5.19%. Technically, lower US bond yields improve the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

Silver Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, XAG/USD has been in a limited range of $58.50-$62.09 for over weeks, keeping a bearish near-term tone as price holds beneath the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $61.85. The metal has retreated from recent highs and now trades under this short-term trend gauge, suggesting upside attempts remain capped, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41.94 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting at persistent but not extreme selling pressure.

On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the 20-period EMA at $61.85, and a sustained break above this barrier would be needed to ease immediate downside risks and allow a recovery toward higher levels. On the downside, momentum support is implied by the RSI hovering near 42, as a deeper slide in price would likely push the oscillator closer to oversold territory and could pave the way for a corrective bounce if bears overextend the move.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second consecutive day, trading around $60.00 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Tuesday. Silver is struggling as rising oil prices fuel inflation concerns, bolstering expectations of further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes. Higher interest rates typically weigh on precious metals like Silver, as they increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Geopolitical tensions also remain at the forefront for investors. Markets are closely monitoring reports that the US is considering joining Saudi Arabia in its campaign against Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen. Meanwhile, sentiment remains fragile following news that the recently announced Russia-Ukraine "energy ceasefire" has already been violated.

Adding to the pressure, the US Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 18-month highs ahead of critical economic releases. Investors are awaiting key inflation reports, including Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index and Thursday’s Producer Price Index, to gauge the Fed's policy path. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in roughly an 80% chance of the Fed keeping rates unchanged this month, alongside an 88% probability of a rate hike in December.

Fed Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack underscored a stronger-than-usual bias toward tighter policy. The emphasis on the need for higher interest rates, a restrictive stance to re-anchor inflation at 2%, and concern that an inflationary mindset is becoming ingrained—amid neutral financial conditions and AI-driven demand pressures—signals a preference for swift, smaller rate tweaks to keep policy tight and responsive. Hammack’s focus on broad-based inflation, firm pricing power, and the duty to clarify the reaction function reinforces a message that the Fed should not assume inflation expectations are safely anchored and that the economy can withstand more tightening.

Fed expectations seen steady as US CPI loomsAnalysts at Societe Generale highlight Wednesday’s US CPI release as the key event for markets, arguing that a move in core inflation to “2.5% (the market consensus)” is unlikely to alter the prevailing policy outlook. In their view, such a print would leave “little chance of any shift in market expectations: no rate hike this month, but a very strong chance of one in December and another in Q1.”

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Interest Rates and the Middle East
That being said, interest rates are moving on noise coming out of the Middle East and concerns about energy inflation. I think the other big situation here will be interest rates. We see interest rates fall, and then generally speaking, that does help gold. That has been the situation here as of late, and continues to be the main mover of markets.

It is not really a situation where it has anything to do with much beyond that, other than a few examples out there that are a little bit different, such as France, which is more of a fiscal problem. This is a completely different situation than most countries.

As long as rates remain high, it does work against non-yielding assets such as gold, and therefore it looks like we are essentially stuck at the moment. We do have a massive amount of demand underneath, though, and that should continue to keep this market somewhat buoyant.

Gold: Inflation Data Takes Center Stage as Energy Pressure Eases Gold got a minor tailwind Monday due to a dip in the energy markets and a softening in some inflation fears. This move came after President Trump announced what he called a temporary energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Details of the arrangement remain unclear, and neither Moscow nor Kyiv had fully confirmed it. Lower energy costs should help ease headline inflation and should provide the Federal Reserve some flexiblility to pause their rate hikes.

Investor focus now shifts to the upcoming U.S. CPI report due out on Wednesday. Market expectations for an October Fed Funds hike have dropped to approximately 17%, while expectations for a December hike have risen to approximately 86%. With the Fed expected to continue hiking through year end, there is still a good chance that there will be some contraction in the non-yielding asset class in the near to intermediate term.

Institutional investor interest in gold remained high. Global gold ETFs added 67 metric tons in September, and brought total holdings to a new record high of 4,256 tonnes. Third quarter global inflows to gold ETFs hit an all time high of $31 billion, according to the World Gold Council.

A forecast cited by Reuters suggests elevated central-bank demand will continue through 2026. Estimates indicate purchases will be around 720 metric tons in 2026, which is about a 15% reduction from 2025, but still above pre-2022 levels.

Silver: Investment Demand Offsets Solar-Sector Weakness Fed policy impacts silver prices, but unlike gold, silver has an active industrial demand component. The Silver Institute expects a sixth successive structural deficit in 2026, with an estimated shortfall of 46.3 million ounces.

Industrial demand for silver in 2026 is expected to drop to 639.6 million ounces due to the continued substitution of silver in Photovoltaic manufacturing. AI Infrastructure and the Automotive and Power Electronics sectors will help absorb some of the silver demand.

Also, bar and coin demand for silver is expected to increase by 18%, indicating a return by investors into the silver markets.

Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Rejected Below $4,227 as $4,175 Support Comes Into Focus

Gold – Chart Gold is sitting at around $4,185.32 on the 2-hour chart and recently failed to break above the $4,200 region. Gold is still under the descending trendline and the longer term moving average. The recent candles are showing a loss of momentum after the bounce from the $4,103 region.

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See all Gold forecasts I am looking for gold to bounce from the $4,175.03 region, but if it does break below this region, I expect further downside to the $4,141.86 region and possibly $4,103.24 and $4,067.42. On the other hand, if we do see a move above the $4,226.82 region, I expect further upside to the $4,271.57 and $4,311.17 regions.

RSI has moved away from overbought region and is now in the middle of the range. I believe that gold is still in a bearish state as long as it is below $4,226.82 and the descending trendline. If gold does break above this region, it would change the bias to bullish. If gold breaks below the $4,175.03 region, this would open up further downside toward the $4,141.86 region.

Silver Technical Analysis: XAG/USD Rejected at Trendline as $59.96 Support Returns to Focus

Silver – Chart Silver has risen to $60.88 on the 2-hour chart after bouncing up from $58.74, but stalled against the falling trendline. I like to sell here because Silver is also still below the larger moving average structure and trendline, which keeps the bigger picture still in a downtrend.

$59.96 is the first support area I want to watch. A clear move below that would bring $58.74 into play and support below that would be $57.64. $61.72 remains the first major resistance area, with $63.06 and $65.09 becoming more relevant resistance areas if we see a strong move by the bulls to breakout.

RSI is moving back toward its average after the recent move higher and tells us momentum is potentially moving back toward the mean. I like to sell in this area. I will look to change my bias if silver moves and closes above $61.72. If silver moves below $59.96, that would further validate a move toward $58.74 next.

XAG/USD Forecast: UBS Recovery View Faces Yield Pressure Silver price rebound faces pressure from speculative selling and higher US real yields, Goldman Sachs warns, as UBS forecasts further gains in 2027. Silver prices rebounded on Friday, but UBS's forecast of $80 an ounce by September 2027 still depends on a substantial recovery from a market that has struggled to turn encouraging industrial indicators into sustained buying.

Spot silver closed near $60.83, up 2.2% on the day.

Robert Quinn, of Goldman Sachs FICC and Equities, writes: "Commitment of Traders encapsulating flows towards the end of September exhibited a large bearish turn in speculative positioning. Specifically, Managed Money, Other, and Non-Reportable net sold a combined $1.6bn from September 22nd - 29th, the largest weekly amount since February. Liquidation ($800mm) and new shorts ($800mm) contributed."

The estimate covers speculative positioning, rather than physical silver sales.

Half the selling closed bullish positions, while half established new bearish bets.

Image: Silver price in US dollars - three month chart Stronger industrial indicators have not overcome financial pressure Quinn's evidence for improving industrial prospects comes from equity-market indicators linked to sectors that use silver.

He writes: "Through early October, barometers for certain structural demand drivers improved. Over September 29th - October 7th, GS's Data Center and Solar equity baskets rose 4.2% and 2.4% respectively. Both maintained positive correlation with Managed Money gross long changes during the past 6 months."

These are equity-market indicators, rather than measurements of silver consumption.

During the same period, the financial conditions facing precious metals moved in the opposite direction.

Quinn writes: "However macroeconomic headwinds also proved formidable. Throughout the same time frame, US real rates edged higher and the Dollar increased (0.8%). Historically, stronger Dollar and real rate environments coincided with Managed Money gross long unwinds."

Higher inflation-adjusted yields increase the attraction of interest-bearing assets relative to silver, while a stronger Dollar raises the metal's cost for buyers using other currencies.

Quinn also identifies weakness in derivatives sentiment: "Thus in the end, the Silver price remained stuck with negative flows arguably persisting. Silver price fell 1.4%. Discretionary sentiment soured; consider normalized 25 delta put-call skew richened to the top 2 year decile. CTA selling also manifested, according to GS Futures Strategists' framework."

The options measure indicates stronger relative demand for downside protection, while Goldman's framework points to selling by systematic futures strategies.

UBS's recovery target faces an investment-demand test UBS's nearer forecast is $70 by December 2026, with further appreciation envisaged during 2027.

UBS has previously argued that higher gold prices and tighter physical conditions could support silver's recovery.

UBS said: "Silver, meanwhile, should benefit from higher gold prices and tighter near-term fundamentals."

More recent CFTC futures data for 6 October show managed-money investors still net long silver, but with that balance edging lower from the preceding week.

These futures-only figures cover a narrower group than Goldman's combined-category estimate.

Goldman sees a possible easing of one obstacle to recovery, rather than confirming that the selling has ended.

Quinn writes: "While acknowledging uncertainty over Middle East developments, note GS FX Research believes one pillar of Silver resistance, namely Dollar upside, could stall. Given stretched positioning on several pairs and recent Fed communication, the team is cautious on near-term Dollar prospects."

Silver price prediction, news FAQ What is UBS's silver forecast?

UBS forecasts $70 an ounce by December 2026 and $80 by September 2027.

Has Goldman Sachs issued an $80 silver target?

No. The $80 forecast belongs to UBS. Goldman's report analyses positioning and market pressures.

Was the $1.6bn selling a prediction?

No. Goldman estimates it occurred across the specified speculative categories during 22-29 September.

Yesterday, I wrote: “Silver follows stocks more closely than gold does, and the reason is industry.”

On Thursday, the link worked to the downside: the Nasdaq fell 1.25 percent, and silver fell while gold rose. Today, it works to the upside: stock futures and copper are higher, and silver is rising faster than gold. I also wrote that silver “amplifies gold’s moves in both directions,” and today it’s repeating Thursday’s move in the other direction.

In my view, silver’s outperformance today says more about stocks and copper than about the precious metals. It’s the industrial half of silver reacting to a better morning for risk assets.

Gold: A Bounce With Clear Drivers On Thursday, oil rose 3.3 percent, but the 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 5.23 percent after a well-received 30-year bond auction, and gold rose $16.30. That’s a modest gain for a day with lower yields and a war headline in the morning.

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Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all Gold forecasts The USD Index is little changed this morning, pausing near its highest levels since April 2025. St. Louis Fed President Musalem said another hike is needed to return inflation to 2 percent, and markets price a 17 percent chance of a hike on October 28 and an 83 percent chance by December.

The Treasury sold $22 billion of 30-year bonds on Thursday at 5.618 percent, the highest yield at a 30-year auction since August 2000, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.54, above the 2.41 average of the previous six auctions. After Wednesday’s 10-year auction at 5.300 percent, that’s two days in a row of investors lining up for yields that gold doesn’t pay, and the lower yields that followed are part of today’s bounce.

Technically, since the consolidation is taking place above the previous 2026 highs, the breakout is fully verified, and the breather’s implications are bullish. The USD Index is simply getting ready for another powerful wave up.

If we are to view the current consolidation as a flag pattern, then the move that follows it is likely to be similar to the one that preceded it. The preceding rally took the USDX from about 99 to about 102, so a repeat of that could take the USDX to about 105 – that would be quite an event for the precious metals market – a very bearish one.

Where This Leaves Us Trump ruled out strikes on Iran before the midterms, oil pulled back, the dollar paused, and gold and silver bounced, with silver outpacing gold as stocks and copper rose. The S&P 500 closed below its August high on Thursday, which invalidated Tuesday’s breakout, and gold remains below the highs of its verification rebound.

Today’s bounce is yesterday’s decline in reverse, driven by the same links. The trend didn’t reverse with it.

Thank you for reading today’s analysis – I appreciate that you took the time to dig deeper and that you read the entire piece. If you’d like to get more (and extra details not available to 99% investors), I invite you to stay updated with our free analyses – sign up for our free gold newsletter now.

Thank you.

Sincerely,

Przemysław K. Radomski, CFA