USD/CAD klesl pod 1,4100 na zhruba 1,4080, protože rostoucí ceny ropy a slabší dolar podpořily kanadský dolar. Nová americká 50% cla na vybrané kanadské zboží ale dál drží pár pod tlakem.
Rising crude oil prices and a weakening greenback pushed USD/CAD back below 1.4100, threatening a return to its July downward channel Central bank divergence remains a risk, as a cautious Bank of Canada (BoC) and hawkish Federal Reserve could limit further loonie gains The Bank of Canada’s steady policy rate keeps interest rate differentials tilted in favor of greenback dip-buyers on deeper pullbacks The US dollar briefly halted the Canadian dollar’s recent climb earlier this week. But it started falling again yesterday and still looks weak today. Now trading below 1.4100, around 1.4080, investors wonder if USD/CAD will return to the steady decline it had between late June and mid-July.
What Broke the Downtrend The brief pause in the downtrend had a clear cause. On Monday, the US administration announced new 50% tariffs on various Canadian goods, including wine, dairy, and cement. This action was stated as a response to what the US described as discriminatory practices against American products in Canada.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called this the latest in a series of unilateral US trade actions. He said Canada had “merely matched” prior US measures. Headlines like that usually hit the loonie first and hardest, which explains why the dollar strengthened Monday and Tuesday.
What Is Driving the Loonie’s Rebound? A significant increase in global crude oil prices is the primary driver behind the Canadian dollar’s resurgence. As a major exporter of commodities, Canada benefits directly from rising crude prices. Oil prices have reached new multi-week highs, which has helped to offset recent domestic challenges and provide strong fundamental support for the Canadian dollar.
Potential Risks Beneath the Surface Despite the current trend, a return to a consistent downtrend is not guaranteed. The tariffs announced on Monday will take effect in 30 days. If trade tensions escalate further before then, sentiment towards Canadian assets could shift negatively, irrespective of oil prices or interest rate movements.
While the current trend favors a stronger Canadian dollar, underlying risks require careful assessment. Uncertainties surrounding the USMCA trade agreement renewal and potential tariff discussions remain significant factors that could strengthen the US dollar if tensions increase.
Market expectations indicate that the Bank of Canada (BoC) might maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, influenced by recent lower domestic consumer price index (CPI) figures. In contrast, persistent US inflation data suggests the Federal Reserve is likely to continue its restrictive monetary policy for a longer period.
Investors should consider USD/CAD with a balanced view. Those expecting further gains in the Canadian dollar might explore strategies that leverage CAD strength, such as hedging US dollar exposure or investing in Canadian assets sensitive to commodity prices.
Effective risk management remains crucial. Diversification and close attention to central bank statements, oil market developments, and trade news will be essential for navigating market fluctuations. Adopting a flexible approach that adapts to evolving data, rather than making large directional bets, is likely to better serve long-term investment goals.
Is USD/CAD returning to its prior downward channel?
The recent weakness in the US dollar suggests a potential return to the late June to mid-July downtrend if current momentum continues.
What risks could impact USD/CAD trajectory?
Trade tensions related to the USMCA, geopolitical shocks in the energy sector, and differing monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada present notable risks of upward movement for the pair.
How do central bank interest rate expectations affect the USD/CAD outlook?
A potentially cautious Bank of Canada alongside a hawkish Federal Reserve could limit severe downside losses for USD/CAD.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extends losses for the third consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with the NZD/USD pair dipping below 0.5800, after being rejected at the 0.5875 area earlier in the week. The Kiwi Dollar is giving away previous gains as higher Oil prices and concerns about the escalation of the Middle East conflict have offset the positive impact of the hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) monetary policy stance.
The dismal market mood is finally taking a toll on the risk-sensitive Kiwi, as tensions in the Middle East remain high and reports of attacks on vessels sailing through the Red Sea raise concerns that the conflict might extend through the region, boosting fears of disruptions in Oil supply.
Against this background, the barrel of Brent Oil has crossed the $90 line for the first time in the last six weeks. This has prompted investors to shift their focus from inflation to the negative impact on economic growth of another energy shock, which will, ultimately, limit the central bank’s margin to tighten its monetary policy.
Technical Analysis: Key support is at the 0.5750 area
NZD/USD trades just below 0.5800, with bears gathering pace as intraday momentum indicators tread further within negative territory. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) has retreated to 35, approaching oversold levels, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly negative, altogether hinting at waning downside momentum but not yet at a clear reversal.
The pair might find some support at previous resistance around 0.5790 (July 10, 13 highs), although the key support area lies at the confluence of the immediate trendline support and the July 13 low, in the area of 0.5750. A confirmation below here would put bears in control, and bring the July 6 and 8 lows, around 0.5675, into focus.
Upside attempts, on the contrary, have been contained below 0.5825 on Thursday, while the key resistance area is in the area between the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the June selloff, at 0.5855, and Tuesday's high, at the mentioned 0.5875, which has capped bulls several times during the current month.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.08%0.02%0.11%-0.13%-0.08%0.26%0.05%EUR0.08%0.11%0.21%-0.05%0.00%0.36%0.13%GBP-0.02%-0.11%0.11%-0.17%-0.11%0.25%0.02%JPY-0.11%-0.21%-0.11%-0.25%-0.20%0.13%-0.08%CAD0.13%0.05%0.17%0.25%0.04%0.39%0.16%AUD0.08%-0.00%0.11%0.20%-0.04%0.36%0.16%NZD-0.26%-0.36%-0.25%-0.13%-0.39%-0.36%-0.24%CHF-0.05%-0.13%-0.02%0.08%-0.16%-0.16%0.24% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
EUR/CHF tento týden prorazil nad 0,9278, protože růst cen ropy znovu zvýšil inflační obavy a posílil sázky na jestřábější ECB. Trh čeká, zda Christine Lagarde tato očekávání potvrdí, nebo utlumí.
EUR/CHF may already be telling investors what to expect from today’s European Central Bank meeting. The cross broke decisively above 0.9278 this week, extending its recent rally as surging oil prices revived inflation concerns across Europe. The move suggests markets have begun positioning for a relatively more hawkish ECB even though policymakers are almost universally expected to leave the deposit rate unchanged at 2.25%. With the decision itself largely priced in, attention will instead turn to whether President Christine Lagarde validates—or pushes back against—the hawkish repricing already underway.
The backdrop confronting the Governing Council has changed dramatically since it last met in June. At that meeting, Brent crude was also trading around $95 a barrel, but the trend pointed firmly lower as markets anticipated a breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations. Optimism was soon rewarded with a 60-day ceasefire announced on June 17, sending Brent to around $70 by early July and reinforcing expectations that energy-driven inflation would continue to ease. That narrative has since been turned on its head. The ceasefire has collapsed, military conflict has resumed, shipping risks around the Strait of Hormuz have intensified, and Brent has climbed back above $95. The crucial difference is that oil is now surging rather than falling, fundamentally changing the inflation outlook facing European policymakers.
Financial markets appear to have recognized that shift before the ECB has had a chance to respond. This week’s move in EUR/CHF suggests investors are increasingly pricing a policy outlook that is more hawkish than it appeared only a few weeks ago. While markets are not yet fully convinced another rate hike will follow, they have become less willing to assume June’s increase marked the end of the tightening cycle. The renewed rise in energy prices has reopened the possibility that inflation could prove more persistent than previously expected.
That leaves Lagarde’s press conference carrying far greater significance than the policy announcement itself. Given the speed at which geopolitical developments are evolving, the ECB is unlikely to provide firm forward guidance. The most likely message is that inflation risks have shifted to the upside, uncertainty surrounding the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz remains exceptionally high, and policy decisions will continue to depend on incoming data. Preserving flexibility is likely to take precedence over signalling a specific policy path.
The key question is whether Lagarde chooses to resist growing market expectations for another rate hike as early as September. Such a question is certain to surface during the press conference. If she explicitly dismisses those expectations, recent Euro gains could fade as markets pare back hawkish bets. On the other hand, if she simply acknowledges heightened inflation risks without challenging current pricing, investors may interpret that as tacit acceptance that another hike remains a live possibility should the energy shock persist.
Meanwhile, EUR/CHF could emerge as the cleaner expression of today’s outcome than EUR/USD. Any hawkish shift from the ECB is likely to be offset by similar expectations that higher oil prices will also keep the Federal Reserve on a tighter path. By contrast, the Swiss National Bank is still widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 0.00% through the remainder of the year, leaving EUR/CHF more directly exposed to changes in ECB expectations.
Technically for EUR/CHF, Wednesday’s break above 0.9278 resumed the rally from March’s 0.8979 low and keeps the pair on course for 100% projection of 0.8979 to 0.9264 from 0.9094 at 0.9379. Just beyond lies the key structural resistance at 0.9394. A sustained break above that level would strengthen the case for a medium-term bullish reversal, reinforcing the view that investors are pricing a widening policy divergence between Frankfurt and Zurich rather than simply reacting to day-to-day geopolitical headlines.
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
Zlato XAU/USD klesá z dvoutýdenních maxim 4 166 USD, protože rostoucí napětí na Blízkém východě a vyšší ceny ropy znovu podporují očekávání dřívějšího zvyšování sazeb Fedu.
Gold is snapping its recent recovery, struggling above $4,100 early Thursday, as both fundamental and technical factors warrant caution for buyers.
Gold reverses from two-week highsGold is extending its pullback from two-week highs of $4,166 reached on Wednesday, even as the US Dollar (USD) remains on the backfoot.
Looming Japanese intervention risks keep Greenback traders cautious amid potential downside risk to the USD/JPY pair, which could have a ‘rub-off’ effect on the buck.
Additionally, the earnings reports from the American tech titans, Alphabet and Tesla, showed robust spending plans for Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure, lifting chipmakers and major Asian indices. The cautious optimism is also rendering negative for the safe-haven US Dollar.
However, expectations of sooner (than later) interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) are back on the table, courtesy of the widening Middle East conflict-led surging Oil prices and increasing inflation fears, which continue to limit the USD downside and reinforce bearish pressure on non-yielding assets such as Gold.
Therefore, the latest leg down is sponsored by that narrative, especially after the US launched a new wave of strikes on Iran and Yemen's Houthis targeted oil tankers in the Red Sea, widening the scope of a conflict that has once again rattled global markets.
Late Wednesday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that Tehran would respond in kind to any attack on its infrastructure after US President Donald Trump threatened to bomb a bridge or power plant for every ship targeted in the Strait of Hormuz.
Looking ahead, Gold remains in the eye of the storm amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy decision.
Although the ECB is widely anticipated to hold key rates this Thursday, any signs of a possibility of a September rate hike could ramp up hawkish sentiment around the central bank. This could further contribute to the retracement in Gold.
Meanwhile, Gold’s daily technical setup continues to caution buyers as they keenly await confirmation of the impending Bear Cross while momentum stays neutral.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,117.19, holding below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,242.58 and well under the 100-day and 200-day SMAs clustered around $4,491, which keeps the near-term bias bearish despite the latest rebound. The metal remains above the 21-day SMA at $4,071.54, suggesting some short-term demand, while the Relative Strength Index (14) near 49 points to neutral momentum rather than a decisive recovery.
Additionally, keeping buyers defensive, the 100-day SMA has crossed the 200-day SMA from above, but a confirmation on a daily candlestick closing basis is awaited to confirm a Bear Cross.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 50-day SMA at $4,242.58, followed by the 100-day SMA at $4,491.02 and the 200-day SMA at $4,495.96, where a dense supply zone could cap further gains. On the downside, immediate support emerges at the 21-day SMA at $4,071.54; a daily close below this floor would likely expose the bearish trend to renewed pressure toward lower levels not yet defined by the current moving-average structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold upside capped as energy and Fed expectations stay in focusAnalysts at ING highlight that gold is "likely to remain sensitive to developments in energy markets and expectations for US monetary policy," keeping the metal vulnerable to shifts in both oil prices and the Fed outlook. They add that silver "could continue to outperform if strength in industrial metals persists alongside safe-haven demand," suggesting the white metal may benefit from both industrial and defensive flows.
Echoing the cautious tone, OCBC notes that "near term, price action may remain two-way," but stresses that "a more sustained recovery likely requires oil prices to back off, some easing in real yields and Fed tightening expectations." Until those conditions materialise, OCBC warns that "upside may remain capped" for gold.
Ropa roste k šestiměsíčnímu maximu kvůli eskalaci napětí na Blízkém východě a obavám z narušení dodávek. USD/JPY zároveň vystoupal nad 163, což zvyšuje riziko zásahu japonských úřadů.
Oil rises towards a 6-week high as Middle East tensions escalate Oil prices are extending gains towards a six-week high amid fears of further supply disruption after the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire for an 11th consecutive night. Meanwhile, oil tankers made U-turns in the Red Sea following warnings of disruption from Iran-backed Houthi forces.
The continued exchange of strikes between the U.S. and Iran has heightened concerns over further disruption to energy supplies. Despite talk of mediation earlier in the week, hostilities appear to be escalating rather than easing.
Adding to those concerns, the Iran-backed Houthis have opened a new front by threatening to target vessels carrying Saudi crude through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. They have also announced a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia.
The Bab el-Mandeb has become an increasingly important route for Saudi crude exports as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has declined sharply since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire collapsed. Three Saudi oil tankers reportedly made U-turns in the Red Sea yesterday.
Should the Bab el-Mandeb Strait also become inaccessible, tankers would be forced to reroute via the Suez Canal, adding both time and cost to shipments to Asia.
Oil forecast – technical analysis
Oil broke above the symmetrical triangle pattern before running into resistance around $87. The price continues to trade above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, as well as the rising trendline support. Combined with the RSI holding above 50, this keeps the near-term outlook constructive.
Buyers will look to break above $88, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the $55–$120 move. A rise above here brings $95, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, into focus, ahead of the $100 psychological level.
Initial support can be seen at $84.50, ahead of the rising trendline, the 50-day EMA at $81.85, and $80, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Below there, support is seen around $78, where the 200-day EMA sits. A break below this level could see sellers gain traction towards $70.67, the July low.
USD/JPY on intervention watch above 163 USD/JPY has climbed to a fresh 40-year high above 163 as rising oil prices and higher U.S. Treasury yields continue to support the dollar, leaving investors increasingly nervous about the risk of Japanese intervention.
The dollar is finding support from safe-haven demand as the conflict in the Middle East continues.
At the same time, rising oil prices are adding to inflation concerns, helping push the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield to its highest level since May earlier this week.
However, the Japanese yen is failing to benefit from safe-haven demand given Japan's reliance on imported energy, making it particularly vulnerable when oil prices rise.
With the yen at its weakest level since 1986, markets remain on intervention watch after Japanese authorities stepped in during both April and May once USD/JPY moved above 160.
Previous intervention only slowed the move temporarily, with the underlying uptrend quickly reasserting itself.
With USD/JPY now trading above 163, the risk of another intervention is rising. However, while intervention can slow momentum, it rarely changes the broader trend unless it is backed by a more hawkish Bank of Japan and a less hawkish Federal Reserve.
For now, the wide interest rate differential continues to favour the dollar, making yen rallies attractive selling opportunities.
While the U.S. economic calendar is relatively quiet this week, attention will be on Friday's PMI data. In Japan, focus will turn to inflation figures released early Friday morning.
USD/JPY forecast – technical analysis
USD/JPY continues to extend its bullish run, trading above its rising trendline and both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs after climbing to 163.25.
However, momentum is beginning to slow, and the bearish RSI divergence suggests buyers should be a little more cautious.
Even so, buyers will look to extend gains towards 164.00, the next key psychological level.
On the downside, initial support can be be seen around 162.50. A break below here brings the 50-day SMA around 161.00 into focus before attention turns to the 160.00 support zone.
USD/CAD se drží poblíž 1,4100, protože poptávka po bezpečném dolaru převažuje nad podporou kanadského dolaru z vyšších cen ropy. Trh sleduje rezistenci 1,4115.
USD/CAD held near 1.4100 after extending its recovery, with traders watching the key 1.4115 resistance level. Safe-haven demand for the US dollar continues to outweigh support for the Canadian dollar from higher crude oil prices. A break above 1.4115 could strengthen bullish momentum, while oil prices and US economic data remain the next major catalysts. The USD/CAD exchange rate traded around 1.4101 on Tuesday after recovering steadily over the past several sessions, as renewed demand for the US dollar continued to offset the Canadian dollar’s traditional support from rising crude oil prices.
The pair has advanced despite Brent crude remaining above $90 per barrel, highlighting how geopolitical uncertainty and expectations for higher US interest rates have become the dominant drivers of currency markets.
Investors are now watching whether USD/CAD can break above 1.4115, a level that could determine whether the pair resumes its broader uptrend.
Why Is USD/CAD Rising Today? The US dollar has regained strength as investors continue to favour safe-haven assets amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran.
The conflict has pushed oil prices sharply higher, raising concerns that inflation could remain elevated and encouraging expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates restrictive for longer.
Those expectations have supported US Treasury yields and increased demand for the dollar across the forex market.
Ordinarily, rising oil prices benefit the Canadian dollar because Canada is one of the world’s largest crude exporters. However, the current geopolitical environment has strengthened the US dollar by an even greater margin, allowing USD/CAD to continue climbing despite favourable conditions for the loonie.
How Do Higher Oil Prices Affect USD/CAD? Crude oil remains one of the most important drivers of the Canadian dollar.
When oil prices rise, Canada’s export revenues typically increase, improving the country’s trade balance and supporting the value of the Canadian dollar.
This week, however, that relationship has weakened.
Brent crude has remained above $90 per barrel after threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns over global energy supplies. Instead of boosting the Canadian dollar, the oil rally has primarily fuelled inflation concerns, strengthening demand for the US dollar and limiting gains for commodity-linked currencies.
As long as geopolitical risks continue driving oil prices higher, the Canadian dollar may struggle to fully benefit from stronger energy markets.
Will USD/CAD Break Above 1.4115? The 1.4115 level has become the key technical hurdle for USD/CAD. ActionForex notes that a decisive move above this resistance would confirm that the recent pullback from 1.4247 has likely ended and increase the probability of another test of that July high.
Conversely, failure to break above 1.4115 could trigger short-term profit-taking after the pair’s recent rally. For now, the broader outlook remains constructive while the pair continues trading comfortably above the 1.3954 support area.
USD/CAD Outlook The short-term USD/CAD outlook remains tilted to the upside while the pair trades just below the key 1.4115 resistance level.
Although elevated oil prices would normally strengthen the Canadian dollar, safe-haven demand for the US dollar and expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer continue to dominate market sentiment.
Whether USD/CAD extends its recovery will likely depend on upcoming US economic data, developments in the Middle East and the direction of crude oil prices. A convincing move above 1.4115 would strengthen the case for another attempt at 1.4247, while renewed strength in the Canadian dollar could limit further gains if oil prices continue climbing.
Why is USD/CAD rising today?
USD/CAD is rising as investors buy the US dollar amid geopolitical uncertainty and expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer. Safe-haven demand has outweighed support for the Canadian dollar from stronger oil prices.
How do oil prices affect USD/CAD?
Higher oil prices usually strengthen the Canadian dollar because Canada is a major oil exporter. A stronger Canadian dollar typically pushes USD/CAD lower. However, during periods of heightened geopolitical risk, the US dollar can outperform despite rising crude prices.
Will USD/CAD break above 1.4115?
The 1.4115 level is the next key resistance for USD/CAD. A sustained break above this level could signal a continuation of the recent recovery and open the door for a retest of the 1.4247 high.
Gold price (XAU/USD) gains ground to around $4,080 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal rebounds as safe-haven demand intensified globally after retreating to the $4,000 psychological level in the previous session.
Renewed military tensions between the United States (US) and Iran have injected high volatility into commodities, prompting traders to rotate capital back into safe-haven yellow metal. Additionally, analysts said that the buying comes with the macro backdrop largely unchanged. “Today’s move looks more like dip-buying than a response to new headlines,” said Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING.
Traders continue to weigh escalations in the US-Iran war. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) has carried out its 11th consecutive night of strikes on Iran since US President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire “over,” while Tehran’s forces have struck US military assets across the Middle East and its Houthi allies have declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia.
Markets will closely monitor Middle East tensions for signs that higher energy costs could stoke inflation, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to tighten policy. Swap traders see low odds of the Fed raising rates at its next meeting in July after softer US inflation data, although traders have fully priced in at least one hike by the end of the year.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Goldman Sachs uvádí, že silné nákupy centrálních bank dávají zlatu podporu cen navzdory tlaku vyšších výnosů amerických dluhopisů. V květnu nakoupily dalších 31 tun.
Gold prices remain under pressure from elevated US bond yields, but Goldman Sachs believes robust central bank demand should prevent any sustained sell-off, providing a solid floor for the precious metal despite near-term headwinds.
The Gold price in US Dollars (XAU/USD) traded around $4,300 on Tuesday after retreating from recent highs, as stronger US economic data and higher Treasury yields weighed on investor demand.
Despite the recent pullback, Goldman Sachs remains constructive on the longer-term outlook, arguing that official sector buying continues to underpin the market.
Image: Gold price in US Dollars - 7 day chart Goldman Sachs notes that central banks purchased another 31 tonnes of gold in May, well above the long-run monthly average and consistent with the steady accumulation seen over the past three years.
"Strong central bank buying in May provides a price floor."
The bank believes official-sector demand has fundamentally changed the gold market by reducing the likelihood of deep and prolonged corrections.
"We continue to expect structurally strong central bank demand."
Goldman Sachs acknowledges that higher real interest rates could continue to generate temporary selling pressure, particularly through exchange-traded funds and speculative positioning.
"Rates pressure is likely to be temporary."
The bank argues that while higher yields have historically weighed on gold, central bank buying is now providing an increasingly important offset.
"Official sector purchases should cushion downside risks."
Image: XAU/USD 1 year chart Near-Term Gold Price Forecast: Goldman Sachs Still Sees Longer-Term Upside Goldman Sachs expects near-term volatility to persist while markets assess the outlook for US interest rates.
However, the bank believes any weakness driven by higher yields should prove temporary because central bank demand remains exceptionally strong.
"We expect continued robust official-sector buying to underpin prices."
For gold investors, Goldman Sachs argues that the current environment differs markedly from previous periods of rising yields, with central bank diversification creating a durable source of demand that should continue to support gold over the medium term.
Gold rose around 1.5% on Tuesday as fresh signals of diplomatic action to de-escalate US-Iran war cooled inflation risks and expected to ease pressure on the US central bank.
Quick change in sentiment made the yellow metal more attractive to investors, with the latest bounce from very significant $4000 support zone (contained several attacks in past one month) has so far retraced 50% of $4203/$3960 bear-leg and eased immediate downside risk.
Improving technical picture (price broke above 10 and 20 DMAs ($4050 and $4062 respectively and 14-d momentum rises into positive territory) supports the action, although recent gains are still insufficient to generate signal of direction change.
The price may extend gains if favorable fundamentals persist, with break through $4110 (Fibo 61.8%) and $4145 (Fibo 76.4%) to further strengthen near-term structure and expose upper breakpoint at $4203 (recovery top / near-term range ceiling) violation of which to generate initial reversal signal.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher on Tuesday as buying interest around the $4,000 psychological level supports prices, while traders assess developments in the Middle East and their potential economic fallout. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,058, up 1.27% on the day.
The United States military carried out a tenth consecutive night of strikes against Iran, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guards targeted US military assets across the region.
Despite the continued military exchanges, diplomatic efforts are underway. The Associated Press reported that Iranian officials began meeting with mediators in Pakistan on Tuesday. Reuters reported on Monday that mediators had offered Tehran a 10-day ceasefire to try to bring last month’s interim agreement back on track.
With the situation still in flux, the US Dollar (USD) remains the preferred safe-haven asset, while Oil prices hold close to their highest level in more than a month. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is hovering just below the 101.00 mark, little changed on the day.
Although Gold is attempting to establish a base above the $4,000 psychological level, its upside remains limited as elevated energy prices stoke inflation concerns and strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep monetary policy tighter for longer or even raise interest rates.
Higher borrowing costs reduce Gold's appeal, prompting investors to rotate toward interest-bearing assets such as government bonds.
Dollar support builds as Gulf tensions weigh on goldAnalysts at ING note that “the FX market is gradually catching up with developments in the Gulf, where tensions still appear to be escalating, and the Dollar has found broad-based support.” They highlight that US President Donald Trump has “pledged retaliation against Iran following the killing of three US service members in Jordan,” while Houthi militants are “threatening a blockade of Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea,” reinforcing the bid for the Dollar as geopolitical risks intensify.
Strategists at OCBC say Gold has "continued to consolidate around recent lows following the sharp pullback earlier this month," adding that "near term, price action may remain two-way, but a more sustained recovery likely requires oil prices to back off, some easing in real yields and Fed tightening expectations. Until then, upside may remain capped."
XAU/USD is testing the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,062. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45 on the daily chart is below the neutral 50 level, indicating weak bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 39 suggests the prevailing trend remains strong despite the near-term stabilization.
On the downside, immediate support lies at the $4,000 psychological level, followed by the lower Bollinger Band at $3,948. A break below this area could expose the horizontal support at $3,800.
On the topside, a sustained move above the Bollinger midline at $4,062 could open the door toward the upper band at $4,175, followed by the $4,200 resistance level. A decisive break above $4,200 would bring the more distant $4,500 barrier into focus.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Kanadský dolar v pondělí oslabil po slabší inflaci a zprávě, že USA uvalí na kanadské produkty nová 50% cla. USD/CAD tak přidal 0,5 % a zaznamenal největší denní zisk za 23 seancí.
The Canadian dollar was the weakest-performing major currency on Monday after softer-than-expected inflation data reduced expectations of further Bank of Canada policy tightening. Cooling headline and core inflation diminished Canada's relative yield advantage, weighing on the Loonie despite the central bank leaving its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%. Separately, reports that the US and Iran had signed a memorandum aimed at ending the conflict weighed on oil prices, adding further pressure to the oil-sensitive Canadian dollar. The loonie then came under renewed selling late in the US session after Reuters reported that Washington would impose new 50% tariffs on Canadian products.
Source: LSEG
Trump's Tariffs Add to Pressure on the Canadian Dollar The proposed 50% tariffs on Canadian products add a fresh headwind for the loonie by threatening Canada's export outlook and economic growth. Slower growth could reinforce expectations that the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates on hold or even consider easing if the economic impact proves material, reducing the Canadian dollar's yield appeal relative to the US dollar. While the full scope and timing of the tariffs remain uncertain, the announcement was enough to fuel another leg higher in USD/CAD.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar USD/CAD posted its largest daily gain in 23 sessions, rising 0.5% after finding support at the 50-day EMA and the 1.40 handle, strongly suggesting a swing low may be in place, at least in the near term. It has been just under a month since USD/CAD peaked, and recent developments suggest the pair could extend its rebound towards the 2025 high at 1.4140.
The 1-hour chart shows support has emerged around the weekly pivot point for now, although the sharp momentum shift below ¥116 suggests bears may look to sell into minor pullbacks. A break below 115.31 would bring the 115.00 handle into focus, followed by a key support zone around 114.60 where the monthly and weekly pivot points converge.
Source: ICE, TradingView
CAD/JPY Technical Analysis: Canadian Dollar vs Japanese Yen While crude oil prices didn’t exactly roll over on Monday, they did form doji’s on the daily chart to show indecision. Given but WTI and brent crude have stalled around their respective resistance levels, it removes another pillar of support for CAD/JPY – which is leaving bearish reversal signals of its own.
CAD/JPY formed a notable bearish engulfing candle on Monday to mark its second worst day of the month. Given it formed around 1.16 after a solid bounce, the case for a pullback was arguably growing anyway.
The 1-hour chart shows support has been found around the weekly pivot point for now, though the sharp momentum shift below 116 suggests bears may be seeking to fade into minor pullbacks, A break below 115.31 brings the 115 handle, and tight support zone around 114.6 into focus comprising of the monthly and weekly pivot points.
Stříbro (XAG/USD) v pondělí stouplo o 1,6 % na 56,90 USD za unci díky poptávce po bezpečných aktivech. Napětí na Blízkém východě převažuje nad očekáváním zvýšení sazeb Fedu v září, přičemž trh nyní přisuzuje zvýšení sazeb 55,3% šanci.
Silver (XAG/USD) advances toward $56.90 per troy ounce on Monday at the time of writing, gaining 1.6% on the day. The precious metal continues to benefit from safe-haven demand as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East keep risk sentiment under pressure.
The United States (US) has carried out a ninth consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets. In response, Tehran considers the ceasefire between the two countries effectively over, raising concerns about further disruptions to key regional energy supply routes. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said that intermediaries have delivered messages to Tehran in recent days aimed at reducing tensions, while stressing that diplomacy remains a tool to pursue the country's national interests.
Concerns intensified further after Yemen's Houthis announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, raising fears of additional disruptions to energy trade. Against this backdrop, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil rebounded from daily lows to near $82.00 per barrel at the time of press, increasing the risk of renewed inflationary pressures.
Higher energy prices are reinforcing expectations of further monetary tightening. Speaking on Friday, Federal Reserve (Fed) of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said inflation remains persistent, strengthening expectations that interest rates could remain higher for longer. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now assign a 55.3% chance to a Fed rate hike in September.
The prospect of higher interest rates is typically a headwind for Silver as the precious metal does not generate yield. However, strong safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical tensions is currently allowing the white metal to maintain a bullish bias despite this unfavorable backdrop.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
USD/CAD klesl na téměř měsíční minimum a míří k důležitému supportu kolem 1,3965. Loonie podporuje slabší USD, vyšší ceny ropy a očekávání jestřábějšího tónu BoC.
By the time the Bank of Canada announces its policy decision today, the Canadian Dollar has already built a powerful foundation for further gains. USD/CAD has fallen to its lowest level in nearly a month, supported not by a single catalyst but by three reinforcing forces: a broad retreat in the US Dollar after softer inflation data, higher oil prices that strengthen Canada’s export outlook, and growing expectations that the Bank of Canada may sound more hawkish than markets anticipated only a week ago.
The first two drivers have already reshaped the currency outlook. June’s weaker-than-expected US CPI prompted investors to scale back Federal Reserve tightening expectations, weighing on the Dollar across major currency pairs. At the same time, Brent crude has surged above $86 as renewed US-Iran hostilities threaten energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. For Canada, rising oil prices are more than just a global inflation story—they improve the country’s terms of trade and typically provide direct support for the Canadian Dollar, helping explain why the Loonie has outperformed most of its peers following the inflation data.
The Bank of Canada now has an opportunity either to reinforce or challenge that momentum. Economists overwhelmingly expect a sixth consecutive hold at 2.25%, making the decision itself unlikely to surprise. The more important question is whether Governor Tiff Macklem adjusts his message in response to oil’s renewed surge. His previous characterization of policy as balancing weaker growth against energy-driven inflation was formed before Brent’s latest rally, meaning the Monetary Policy Report may already understate current inflation risks. Markets will therefore pay closer attention to Macklem’s live assessment than to the published projections.
That leaves the accompanying statement and Macklem’s press conference as the key market events. Investors will focus on whether the Governor continues to describe policy as a balanced dilemma or acknowledges that the renewed energy shock has tilted inflation risks higher. Any discussion of the ongoing CUSMA trade review will also be closely watched, as it remains an important downside risk to Canada’s growth outlook. Even without signaling an imminent rate increase, a modestly more hawkish tone could encourage markets to further increase expectations of tightening in early 2027, where pricing is already becoming increasingly balanced.
Technically, USD/CAD is approaching an important inflection point. While the decline from 1.4247 has accelerated, it is still viewed as a correction within the broader uptrend from 1.3480. Strong support is expected between former resistance at 1.3965 and 38.2% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.4247 at 1.3954. Break of 1.4159 minor resistance will indicae that the correction has completed.
However, a decisive break below 1.3954/65 would suggest the advance from 1.3480 has completed as a three-wave corrective rebound after failing near 61.8% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.4290. Such a development would shift the near-term technical outlook decisively in favour of further Canadian Dollar strength.
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
ING varuje, že EUR/USD zatím drží krátkodobý úrokový diferenciál, ale další růst cen energií by mohl pár stlačit k 1,10. Největší hrozbou je podle banky prudký růst cen plynu a slabší vyhlídky na další zvyšování sazeb ECB.
ING’s Francesco Pesole argues that the EUR/USD short-term rate differential is currently supporting the Euro as Gulf tensions rise, helped by a recovery in EUR front-end rates. However, he doubts this can last if Oil and Gas prices keep climbing, given limited scope for more ECB hikes and worsening eurozone terms of trade. ING warns that EUR/USD could risk a move toward 1.10 under higher energy prices.
Euro buoyed by rates for now"The EUR:USD short-term rate differential is – for now – helping to keep EUR/USD afloat in this Gulf re-escalation. The two-year swap rate gap has re-tightened around 15bp since the start of July, primarily because the rebound in oil prices happened at a time when ECB hike bets were dwindling, leaving more upside room to recover for EUR front-end rates."
"We aren’t convinced this rate gap can offer sustainable support to EUR/USD if energy prices continue to rise though."
"Markets may find it harder to price in more than two ECB hikes by year-end (now, 46bp) considering the less hawkish stance by ECB officials of late, and the medium-term negative implications of an energy crisis – combined with Fed tightening – for the EUR, tend to outweigh the positive of EUR hikes."
"The spike in gas prices is particularly concerning, as it weighs on the eurozone’s terms of trade more than oil."
"In a scenario where Brent returns to $90-100/bl and TTF around €55-60/MWh, a move to 1.10 becomes a tangible risk in EUR/USD."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
GBP/CAD v pondělí klesl, protože růst cen ropy po obnoveném napětí mezi USA a Íránem podpořil kanadský dolar. Ropa na začátku seance vzrostla asi o 4 %.
The Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate slipped on Monday as renewed conflict between the US and Iran lifted oil prices and supported the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar.
At the time of writing, GBP/CAD was trading at CA$1.8931, down around 0.2% on the day.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.891014 (-0.36%)
Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.611545 (-0.28%)
Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.41364 (-0.15%)
DAILY RECAP:
The crude-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) firmed on Monday as escalating tensions in the Middle East triggered a rise in global oil prices.
After a lull in the fighting on Friday, hostilities between the US and Iran resumed on Sunday following an Iranian strike on a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz. The US responded by attacking Iranian targets, with Tehran further retaliating by targeting US allies in neighbouring Gulf states.
Markets are growing increasingly concerned that the conflict could intensify further, limiting shipping in the region. As a result, oil prices rose around 4% at the open on Monday. Although crude trimmed some of these gains as the session went on, CAD remained supported.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) was mixed on Monday as a lack of UK economic data left the currency rudderless.
Sterling was able to avoid steep losses against the rising Canadian Dollar thanks to ongoing political optimism in the UK, with GBP investors remaining confident that the political uncertainty that has dogged the Pound over the past year was coming to an end.
Near-Term GBP/CAD Forecast: BoE Comments to Impact the Pound? Looking forward, Tuesday’s session starts with a speech from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey.
Bailey has stuck to a cautious tone in recent weeks, arguing that the bank ought to wait and see how inflation plays out before considering adjusting policy. However, with global energy prices rising amid renewed US-Iran tensions, the Pound could tick higher if the BoE chief strikes a more hawkish chord.
Meanwhile, oil price dynamics are likely to drive the ‘Loonie’. CAD could remain supported if crude continues to climb amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Zlato po pondělním gapu dolů o 20 USD zůstává pod tlakem a trh sleduje klíčovou podporu 4 000 USD. Její proražení by potvrdilo pokračování medvědího trendu.
Gold edged lower after opening with $20 gap lower on Monday, following the latest escalation in the Middle East that fueled inflationary risk and added to expectations that the Fed will keep higher interest rates or possibly opt for rate hikes, providing support to US dollar.
Markets also focus on this week’s key economic data – release of US June inflation report and Fed Chair Warsh’s semiannual testimony on economy, inflation and monetary policy that will add fresh details on overall outlook.
Technical studies on daily chart remain in mainly bearish configuration, following several death-crosses formed during June (20; 30; 55 / 200DMAs), 14-d momentum holding in negative zone and RSI below 50).
Fresh weakness after recent recovery stall, shifts near-term focus to the downside, with initial requirement on weekly close below Fibo support at $4076 (where bears were rejected four times) guarding key supports at $4000/$3950 (psychological / recent spikes below $4K), with firm break here (after a multiple failure) to generate bearish continuation signal of larger downtrend from new historical high.
At the upside, falling 20DMA marks first significant resistance ($4118), ahead of pivotal barrier at $4203 (July 6 recovery peak).
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Zlato zůstává nad 4 000 USD za unci díky očekáváním sazeb v USA a silným nákupům centrálních bank, v čele s Čínou. Peking v červnu zvýšil zlaté rezervy už 20. měsíc v řadě.
ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report that Gold has edged lower after an early advance as traders await the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, but the metal trades in line with evolving US rate expectations and remains supported above $4,000/oz. Ongoing Strait of Hormuz security concerns and persistent official‑sector buying, led by China, underpin the outlook.
Fed path and China buying in focus"Gold edged lower in Tuesday’s afternoon trading after an early advance as investors looked ahead to the release of the June Federal Open Market Committee minutes later this week for further clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path. The metal continues to trade largely in line with shifting US rate expectations. Last week's weaker-than-expected jobs data reduced expectations of additional tightening and helped gold stabilise back above the $4,000/oz level."
"Meanwhile, official-sector demand remains supportive. Data from the People's Bank of China showed it increased its gold reserves for a 20th consecutive month in June. This marks its largest monthly purchase since late 2023."
"The continued accumulation highlights China's ongoing efforts to diversify reserves and reinforces a broader trend of strong central bank buying. It should continue to provide an important source of support for gold prices despite recent volatility."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold (XAU/USD) price retreats by 0.44% on Tuesday as the yellow metal fails to clear $4,200 amid rising US consumer inflation expectations and threats of a resumption of hostilities in the Middle East, following reports of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. The XAU/USD pair trades at $4,146 after peaking at $4,180.
Bullion retreats as yields climb and Hormuz risks returnThe yellow metal seems poised to consolidate after failing to clear a downward-sloping resistance trendline near $4,200, which exacerbated XAU’s drop towards the $4,150 area. Recent data from the NY Fed showed that inflation expectations rose to their highest level since September 2023.
The NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated increasing concern among Americans about the high cost of living, with one-year inflation expectations climbing from 3.5% in May to 3.7% in June. Further data showed that the Goods and Services Trade Balance deficit widened from $-54.6 billion in April to $-77.6 billion in May, below estimates of $-78 billion.
The de-anchoring of inflation expectations could be a reason for Fed officials to raise interest rates. Additionally, reports from the Middle East indicated that two ships were attacked by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as reported by Iran’s Fars agency, which fueled fears that energy prices could reaccelerate ahead of the US-Iran talks resumption.
Oil prices immediately edged higher, underpinning the Greenback due to their positive correlation. At the time of writing, Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude Oil benchmark, is up over 2.70% to $70.48 per barrel. At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck’s performance against a basket of six currencies, trades at 199.97, up 0.12%.
Another reason to consider is that US Treasury yields are rising. The US 10-year Treasury yield has risen by 5.5 basis points to 4.525%. Despite this, money markets are sceptical of a rate hike at the July 29 meeting, but for September, the odds are near 60%, according to Prime Market Terminal.
The World Gold Council reported that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) added further Gold reserves for the 20th consecutive month, with stockpiles hitting 75.44 million fine troy ounces at the end of June, up from 74.96 million a month earlier.
Investors' eyes shift towards the release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday, followed by Thursday's jobless claims for the week ending July 4.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold remains bearish below $4,200, sellers eye $4,000Gold’s downtrend is set to extend further if XAU fails to break a resistance line at around $4,200-$4,225. Furthermore, the formation of a 'death-cross' on the daily chart indicates that sellers are gaining traction, which could lead to further declines.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bearish despite nearing the neutral 50 level. Over the past two trading sessions, it has indicated potential for additional downside.
Bullion’s path of least resistance is downwards. The first support is the $4,150 figure, followed by the psychological $4,100 mark. A breach of the latter will expose the $4,050 milestone, which lies ahead of the $4,000 figure and the year-to-date low at $3,941.
For a bullish turnaround, Gold must clearly break above $4,250 and then aim for $4,300. Resistance levels include the 50-day SMA at $4,391 and the 200-day SMA at $4,488, with $4,500 also in sight.
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Zlato podporují přílivy do ETF a nákupy centrálních bank, ale růst brzdí očekávání dalšího zvýšení sazeb Fedu. HSBC přesto čeká, že střednědobá poptávka zůstane silná.
The Fed’s rate hike expectations limit gold’s rally potential. Capital inflows into ETFs and central bank purchases are supporting the gold price. The US dollar failed to capitalise on the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Reports of a tanker incident in the Strait of Hormuz are putting US-Iran negotiations at risk. Nevertheless, Brent crude rose only slightly, while the resumption of the S&P 500 rally and the associated improvement in global risk appetite are undermining the greenback’s position.
The futures market is pricing in a 3-in-4 chance of a Fed rate hike in 2026. This is allowing speculators to build up net long positions in the US dollar to their highest levels since 2015, leaving the US currency’s positions vulnerable. No sooner had Kevin Warsh adopted less hawkish rhetoric in Sintra than the markets had anticipated, and the employment figures disappointed, than the EURUSD soared sharply.
Lower chances of a Fed rate hike have allowed gold to find its footing. However, the Sword of Damocles (a potential federal funds rate hike due to persistent inflation) continues to hang over the precious metal. As the risks of an energy shock have receded, the inflationary nature of massive investments in artificial intelligence and weather-related supply chain disruptions remains a reality.
Fears that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy are unlikely to allow gold to return to its record highs in 2026. However, HSBC remains optimistic, expecting that medium-term demand for gold as a means of diversifying investment portfolios, capital inflows into ETFs and increased purchases of bullion by central banks will allow the precious metal to rise.
Indeed, according to the World Gold Council, central banks increased their reserves by 41 tonnes in May, stepping up their bullion purchases. Poland and China were the most active. Since the start of the year, Poland has bought 64 tonnes, Uzbekistan 33 tonnes, China 25 tonnes and Kazakhstan 20 tonnes.
HSBC believes that, in the short term, gold will come under pressure due to the strong US dollar and high yields on US Treasury bonds. In reality, its fate depends on the futures market’s reassessment of the trajectory of the federal funds rate. In this regard, clues from the minutes of the June FOMC meeting are certain to influence gold.
The FxPro Analyst Team
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Stříbro (XAG/USD) klesá o 1,35 % k téměř 61 USD, protože vyšší ceny ropy a obavy z inflace tlačí na neúročená aktiva. Trh čeká na středeční zápis z jednání FOMC.
Silver price (XAG/USD) is down 1.35% to near $61.00 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The white metal extends its correction as oil prices see some buying interest, following headlines that Iran fired at least two missiles at commercial ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint to almost one-fifth of global energy supply.
Iran’s attack on commercial ships has renewed fears of energy supply disruption, whose impact on global inflation has already been witnessed by market participants in the past few months amid the war between the United States (US)-Israel and Iran.
The Silver price underperformed during the Middle East war, as the increase in inflationary pressures due to rising energy prices prompted fears of interest rate hikes by global central banks.
Higher interest rates bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Going forward, the major trigger for the Silver price will be the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the June policy meeting on Wednesday. Investors will pay close attention to FOMC minutes to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.
In the June policy meeting, the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75% and signaled that the central bank will refrain from delivering forward-looking remarks on policy rates at the current policy juncture.
Silver technical analysis
XAG/USD trades lower at around $61.50, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $63.35. The downside tone is reinforced by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 41, which suggests persistent but not extreme selling pressure as rebounds continue to be capped by the nearby EMA barrier.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at $63.35, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish pressure and open the way for a more constructive recovery phase. Looking down, the psychological level of $60.00 will be the key support zone; below that, the Silver price could revisit the seven-month low of $55.63.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
British Pound gains as easing Fed hike bets weigh on US DollarGBP/USD continues its winning streak for the ninth consecutive day, trading around 1.3390 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency pair rises as the US Dollar (USD) faces headwinds as market participants scale back expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes this month and in September. This shift in sentiment followed a cooling employment report that revealed fewer jobs added across April, May, and June than Wall Street had anticipated.
Furthermore, a recent drop in crude oil prices, driven by an OPEC+ production boost and a US-Iran peace deal, has alleviated broader inflationary pressures, softening the urgency for an aggressive Fed policy outlook. Read more...
Pound Sterling rallies into its own coronationGBP/USD has quietly put together eight consecutive higher daily closes, a grind from near 1.3150 that has delivered the pair directly onto its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), with the 50-day EMA just beneath it and the 1.3400 handle immediately overhead. Monday added another modest gain: Cable based near 1.3350 through the London morning, then climbed all afternoon to stall just shy of 1.3400.
The interesting part is what did not stop it. A hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) governor was on the wires mid-afternoon, US services data came in warm enough to keep the hike debate alive, and the pair rallied through all of it, which suggests Monday was less about fresh good news for the Pound and more about a Dollar that has run out of new arguments. Read more...
