Market Signal Briefing

Zach Anderson
Dec 18, 2025 09:32

APT price prediction shows potential 25-45% upside from current $1.50 levels as RSI at 27.34 signals extreme oversold conditions, targeting $1.85-$2.20 range.

APT Price Prediction: Technical Recovery Expected as Oversold Conditions Peak
Aptos (APT) has reached a critical juncture at $1.50, sitting at its 52-week low with technical indicators flashing extreme oversold signals. Our comprehensive APT price prediction analysis suggests a potential recovery bounce is imminent, supported by multiple technical confluences and analyst forecasts pointing toward upside targets.

APT Price Prediction Summary
• APT short-term target (1-2 weeks): $1.85 (+23% from current levels)
• Aptos medium-term forecast (1 month): $2.20-$2.60 range (+47-73% potential)
• Key level to break for bullish continuation: $1.77 (SMA 20 resistance)
• Critical support if bearish: $1.44 (Bollinger Band lower support)

Recent Aptos Price Predictions from Analysts
The latest APT price prediction landscape reveals mixed but increasingly optimistic sentiment. MEXC News presents the most bullish Aptos forecast, targeting $1.85-$1.95 in the short term and $2.20-$2.60 for medium-term recovery. This contrasts with CoinCodex's more conservative $1.43 APT price target, though their bearish outlook appears increasingly outdated given current oversold conditions.

Hexn.io's $1.59 prediction sits in the middle ground, acknowledging both the extreme fear sentiment (Fear & Greed Index at 16) while recognizing bullish market undercurrents at 70%. The consensus among recent predictions suggests an APT price target range between $1.43-$2.60, with the technical setup increasingly favoring the higher end of this spectrum.

APT Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Oversold Bounce
Current Aptos technical analysis reveals compelling evidence for a potential reversal. The RSI at 27.34 has reached deeply oversold territory, historically a strong predictor of short-term bounces in APT. The MACD histogram turning positive at 0.0131 provides the first sign of bullish momentum building beneath the surface.

APT's position relative to Bollinger Bands at 0.0957 indicates the price is hugging the lower band at $1.44, often a precursor to mean reversion moves. The current price of $1.50 sits just above this critical support, creating a low-risk, high-reward setup for long positions.

Volume analysis shows $14.3 million in 24-hour Binance spot trading, indicating sustained interest despite the price decline. The Average True Range (ATR) of $0.15 suggests potential for significant intraday moves, supporting our APT price prediction for volatility-driven recovery.

Aptos Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish Case for APT
The primary bullish APT price target sequence begins with a break above the immediate resistance at $1.64 (24-hour high), followed by a test of the SMA 20 at $1.77. Success here opens the path to $1.85, aligning with MEXC's short-term forecast.

Extended bullish momentum could drive APT toward the $2.16 immediate resistance level, with the ultimate medium-term target reaching $2.20-$2.60. This Aptos forecast requires sustained buying pressure and broader crypto market support, but the oversold setup provides the foundation for such a move.

Bearish Risk for Aptos
The bearish scenario for our APT price prediction hinges on a breakdown below the $1.44 Bollinger Band support. This would target the next major support at $1.31, representing additional downside risk of approximately 13% from current levels.

Failure to hold the $1.46 immediate support could trigger algorithmic selling, potentially driving APT toward its strong support level. However, the extreme oversold conditions make this scenario less probable in the near term.

Should You Buy APT Now? Entry Strategy
Based on our Aptos technical analysis, a staged entry approach offers the best risk-reward profile. Initial positions can be established at current levels around $1.50, with additional buying on any dip toward $1.46 support.

A conservative stop-loss below $1.42 (roughly 5% below the Bollinger Band support) provides protection while allowing room for normal volatility. Position sizing should account for APT's high volatility, with many traders limiting exposure to 2-3% of portfolio value.

The question of whether to buy or sell APT favors accumulation at these oversold levels, particularly for traders with a 2-4 week time horizon matching our price prediction timeline.

APT Price Prediction Conclusion
Our comprehensive analysis supports a MEDIUM-HIGH confidence APT price prediction for recovery to $1.85-$2.20 over the next 2-4 weeks. The confluence of extreme oversold RSI conditions, bullish MACD divergence, and analyst targets creates a compelling technical setup.

Key indicators to monitor for confirmation include RSI movement above 35 (exit from oversold territory) and sustained trading above the $1.77 SMA 20 level. Invalidation of this bullish Aptos forecast would require a decisive break below $1.42 support.

The timeline for this prediction centers on the next 2-4 weeks, with initial moves toward $1.85 potentially occurring within 7-10 trading days if current oversold conditions continue to unwind as expected.

Image source: Shutterstock

apt price analysis
apt price prediction

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin is advocating for a strategic shift in how the Ethereum protocol evolves, arguing that simplicity is essential to achieving genuine trustlessness—a fundamental ideal of blockchain technology.

In a series of recent statements on X, Buterin underscored that while Ethereum operates without centralized control, its growing architectural complexity risks placing implicit trust in a small circle of experts rather than in the protocol itself. “An important and underrated form of trustlessness is increasing the number of people who can actually understand the whole protocol from top to bottom,” he wrote.

Traditionally, blockchain trustlessness means that users don’t have to place faith in intermediaries — such as servers or developers — because the rules are enforced by open-source code and decentralized consensus. However, Buterin warns that if only a handful of developers can genuinely grasp the full stack, users still end up trusting that inner circle.

To address this, developers are also exploring technologically “stateless clients” and node-lightening schemes, allowing participants to engage without storing any portion of the entire blockchain state, thereby reducing the hardware barrier to participation and centralization. 

Buterin advocates for radical simplification and trustless design
Buterin is calling for radical simplification and trustless design, which can be strengthened by reducing its dependency on specialized mechanisms and standardized key protocol features that can be audited and modified by new entrants. Just last year, Buterin and the Ethereum Foundation published an on-chain “Trustless Manifesto” that explicitly asserts a reluctance for developers to sacrifice decentralization for the sake of convenience.

The manifesto also issues a warning that benevolent shortcuts, such as default reliance on hosted nodes or centralized relayers, will, over time, gradually erode the integrity of a permissionless network. It calls on builders to create systems in which everyone can verify protocol rules, and no one holds crucial secrets or assumes the role of an irreplaceable intermediary. 

The conversations in the industry are not limited to Layer‑2 designs either. Buterin suggests that developers optimize Layer-2 protocols by heavily relying on Ethereum’s base layer for security and decentralization, without reusing complex logic from one chain to another. By minimizing their efforts in this way, much of the system’s complexity is simplified, and the performance overhead falls dramatically.

Ethereum roadmap boosts usability and simplifies the network
Ethereum’s official roadmap supports these simplification goals with scaling and usability evolution. That said, evolving smart contract wallets that hide gas fees and key management are helping the network connections more closely resemble what a web-based app looks like. 

The players in the market have also been focusing on similar upgrades, such as enhancing blob throughput and implementing Peer-to-Peer Data Availability Sampling (PeerDAS), which increases the throughput of transactions for nodes, thereby improving the transaction throughput performance over a node. From a usability perspective, “stateless” client structures and lightweight protocol components could lower the costs associated with running nodes (which are an essential aspect of decentralization). 

While pure statelessness remains a foreseeable project, milestones such as Verkle Trees and data compression techniques are already being tested and implemented. They could eventually lighten some of the load on node operators, allowing more participants to verify the blockchain autonomously. 

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The latest CPI projections aren’t doing crypto any favors. With U.S. inflation expected to hit 3.1% year-over-year in November, the highest since May 2024, market sentiment is turning cautious. Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have filtered through supply chains, driving up costs and dampening risk appetite. For meme coins like Shiba Inu (SHIB), which thrive on liquidity and speculative flows, rising inflation tends to act as a brake. Investors move toward safer assets, waiting for clarity on when the Federal Reserve might finally ease rates.

Inflation Rises Again: Here’s Why It Matters for Shiba Inu Price Prediction

Inflation is back in the spotlight, and this time, it’s hitting risk assets right where it hurts. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a 3.1% annual rise in November, the highest since May 2024, confirming that price pressures aren’t cooling as quickly as investors hoped. The culprit? Tariffs. New import taxes have quietly reignited inflation, offsetting cooling housing costs and keeping the Federal Reserve trapped between fighting inflation and supporting a slowing job market.

For cryptocurrencies like Shiba Inu (SHIB), these numbers matter. Every uptick in inflation chips away at investor appetite for speculative assets. The more stubborn inflation gets, the longer the Fed keeps rates elevated—and that means liquidity remains tight. In plain terms, cheap money that once fueled meme coin rallies is no longer around. Instead, traders are choosing to sit on the sidelines, waiting for clarity from Washington before diving back into high-risk tokens.

With inflation holding above the Fed’s 2% target and policy debates heating up, SHIB’s price action mirrors broader market anxiety. It’s not just a chart story—it’s macro meets meme.

Shiba Inu Price Prediction: Bears Still in ControlSHIB/USD Daily Chart- TradingViewLooking at the daily SHIB price chart, the token is trading near $0.00000749, breaking below the middle Bollinger Band and hovering around the lower band support. This signals continued bearish pressure. The downtrend that began in early November hasn’t reversed—each attempt at recovery near $0.0000083–$0.0000090 has been rejected.

If the current weakness continues, SHIB could revisit the next support zone around $0.0000072, with a deeper correction possibly testing $0.0000065. The narrowing Bollinger Bands hint at upcoming volatility, but direction remains skewed to the downside until the price breaks above the 20-day moving average near $0.0000083.

Market Sentiment: Inflation Adds More WeightMacroeconomic factors are playing a larger role in shaping short-term crypto trends. Rising inflation keeps the Fed on guard, reducing the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts. When borrowing costs stay high, risk assets like SHIB price struggle to attract new capital. Meanwhile, the lack of a BLS October CPI report has injected additional uncertainty—something markets hate.

Will Shiba Inu Recover If Inflation Cools in 2026?Economists at Wells Fargo expect inflation to gradually ease toward 2% by mid-2026, as tariff pressures fade and productivity improves. If that timeline holds, risk appetite could return to altcoins by late 2025, setting the stage for a broader rebound. For SHIB price, that means the current accumulation phase below $0.0000080 might turn into a launchpad once macro conditions stabilize.

In the short term, Shiba Inu price remains under pressure, shadowed by inflation data and a risk-off environment. Traders should watch the $0.0000074 level closely—holding this support could trigger a minor bounce toward $0.0000083. But a clean breakout above $0.0000090 is needed to confirm trend reversal. Until then, SHIB price is likely to consolidate or slide further before any meaningful recovery begins.

A few Wall Street analysts expect Bitcoin to rocket to new highs in 2026, but history offers a more sobering outlook.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC 1.16%) has advanced 15% year to date, while Bitcoin (BTC +0.85%) has declined 5%. If that pattern holds, it will mark the first year since 2014 where the S&P 500 has risen while Bitcoin has declined, according to Bloomberg.

What happened last time? Bitcoin outperformed by a wide margin during the following year. Specifically, while the S&P 500 traded sideways in 2015, Bitcoin soared 38%. Certain Wall Street analysts expect Bitcoin to rebound in a similar fashion next year.

Geoff Kendrick at Standard Chartered and Gautam Chhugani at Bernstein expect Bitcoin to hit $150,000 in 2026. Both forecasts are downward revisions from their previous estimates, reflecting a more difficult market environment, but they still imply 74% upside from the current price of $86,000.

However, Standard Chartered and Bernstein see more robust gains in the future. Kendrick estimates Bitcoin will hit $500,000 by 2030 (implying 480% upside), and Chhugani expects the coin to hit $1 million by 2033 (implying 1,060% upside).

Here's what investors should know.

Image source: Getty Images.

The investment thesis for Bitcoin
The investment thesis for Bitcoin centers on the idea that demand will increase in the coming years as institutional investors diversify their portfolios and corporations integrate digital assets into their treasury strategies. Driving forces behind that demand include simplified adoption through spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and greater regulatory clarity, especially in the United States.

To elaborate, spot Bitcoin ETFs eliminate barriers (e.g., managing multiple accounts, high fees) associated with cryptocurrency exchanges, letting investors buy Bitcoin through their existing brokerage accounts. In turn, the number of large asset managers with positions in the iShares Bitcoin Trust -- the largest spot Bitcoin ETF -- increased 150% in the past year. And the amount of Bitcoin held by public and private companies rose 60%.

Meanwhile, the U.S. House of Representatives approved the Clarity Act in July, which clarifies digital asset jurisdiction. Senate approval is expected in 2026. Congress also passed the GENIUS Act in July, creating a regulatory framework for stablecoins. While not explicitly related to Bitcoin, it shows digital assets are becoming more mainstream, which should incentivize institutional and corporate adoption.

Indeed, State Street Investment Management recently wrote, "Institutions are embracing Bitcoin for its diversification, long-term growth, and improving regulatory clarity."

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History says Bitcoin could have another difficult year in 2026
Bitcoin has historically peaked 12 to 18 months following each halving event. Afterward, its price has typically fallen over the next 12 to 18 months, then gradually recovered until the next halving event. The current cycle is following that pattern.

The last Bitcoin halving occurred in April 2024. Nearly 18 months later, in October 2025, its price peaked at around $125,000. If the pattern holds, Bitcoin will decline into late 2026 or early 2027, then its price will gradually rebound as the fifth halving event nears in mid-2028.

There is another reason to think 2026 will be challenging for Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency closed in bear market territory (i.e., down 20% from its bull market high) in November 2025, something that has now happened seven times since 2021. Following the last six incidents, Bitcoin returned an average of 0% over the next 12 months.

Here's the big picture: A few Wall Street analysts have issued optimistic target prices for Bitcoin in 2026, and their reasoning largely centers on spot Bitcoin ETFs driving adoption among institutional investors. However, history says Bitcoin could deliver lackluster returns next year, so investors uncomfortable with holding it for several (potentially volatile) years should never buy it in the first place.

Journalist

Posted: December 18, 2025

Heading into 2026, the market looks to be setting up a clear divergence.

On one side, the tone is still risk-off. Bitcoin [BTC] hasn’t reclaimed levels since the October crash, dropping the share of supply in profit from 98% before the sell-off to around 63% now. That’s a real squeeze on margins.

The result? BTC’s NUPL is deep into net-loss territory. From a technical standpoint, this looks like a classic capitulation setup. However, a key market divergence suggests this phase may not be bearish after all.

Mining shutdown and LTH sales explain Bitcoin’s weakness
Bitcoin’s supply dynamics are seeing a quiet but significant shakeout. 

Notably, most of the pressure is coming from China, which has once again tightened mining restrictions. Specifically, the Xinjiang crackdown has shut down roughly 1.3 GW of mining capacity, taking 400,000 rigs offline.

Simply put, BTC miners are at risk as a large chunk of Bitcoin mining in China has been forced offline. The result? Bitcoin’s hashrate has dropped about 8%, making the network temporarily less secure against attacks.

Source: Blockchain.com

As the chart shows, Bitcoin’s hashrate fell from 1.12 billion TH/s to 1.07 billion TH/s in less than a week. With China controlling around 14% of total hashpower, this highlights how regional moves are adding selling pressure.

On-chain data supports this trend. Asian exchanges have shown consistent net spot selling throughout Q4. At the same time, long‑term holders (LTHs) are also reducing positions, with selling activity rising over the past month or two.

In short, Bitcoin is facing Asia‑driven pressure. Meanwhile, U.S. BTC spot ETFs just recorded their largest single-day inflow in over a month. This divergence could play a decisive role in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory as 2026 approaches.

Forced, not panic selling, could shape BTC’s 2026 move
Bitcoin’s outlook for 2026 is being defined by a subtle shift in supply dynamics.

As macro volatility picks up and renewed China mining pressure builds, different BTC cohorts are being pushed into selling just to manage losses. Miners are a clear part of this, with miner net position change flipping red.

In other words, with hashrate down around 8%, miner margins are getting squeezed, making continued selling more likely. That keeps Bitcoin’s short-term momentum capped, limiting its Q4 tailwind.

Source: Glassnode

That said, this looks more like forced selling than panic. 

BTC ETFs just pulled in $457 million in a single day, showing institutions are still buying. Big players haven’t tapped out yet, which makes the pullback feel more like a healthy reset than a fear-driven capitulation.

Notably, this divergence could define Bitcoin’s setup heading into 2026.

Final Thoughts

Asia-led forced selling is weighing on BTC short-term, driven by China’s mining shutdowns, falling hashrate, and long-term holder distribution.
Institutional demand remains intact, with strong U.S. spot ETF inflows creating a divergence that could shape Bitcoin’s setup heading into 2026.

Ritika Gupta is a Financial Journalist and Geopolitical Analyst at AMBCrypto, specializing in the critical intersection of world politics, economic policy, and the cryptocurrency markets. Her analysis is informed by her distinguished background, which includes professional experience at major news network.
She holds a Bachelor's degree in Political Science and Psychology from Gargi College, University of Delhi. This academic training provides her with a sophisticated framework for dissecting complex issues such as international regulations, government fiscal policies, and the geopolitical forces that directly influence asset valuations.
At AMBCrypto, Ritika applies this expert lens to synthesize macroeconomic data and political developments, offering readers a deeper context for market movements. She excels at explaining not just what is happening in the market, but why it is happening. Her work is dedicated to providing strategic insights that empower readers to understand the complex relationship between global events and their digital assets.

Bitwise forecasts new highs for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana as ETFs absorb more than new supply, stablecoins surge, and tokenization reshapes institutional portfolios by 2026.​

Summary

Bitwise projects Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana will hit new all-time highs as traditional four-year cycles give way to ETF-driven flows and macro factors by 2026.​
The firm expects ETFs to buy more than 100% of new BTC, ETH, and SOL issuance, while stablecoin growth and tokenization funnel institutional capital on-chain.​
Bitwise sees crypto equities outperforming tech stocks, forecasts 100+ US crypto ETFs, and predicts Ivy League endowments and on-chain vaults will deepen adoption.​

Asset manager and exchange-traded fund issuer Bitwise released a 2026 outlook for the cryptocurrency market, projecting new all-time highs for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, according to the firm’s latest report.

Bitwise grows
The report states that Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to break from its traditional four-year price cycle. Bitwise cited several factors supporting this projection, including reduced impact from Bitcoin Halving dynamics, interest rate fluctuations, and leverage-driven market cycles in coming years.

The entry of major financial institutions including Citi, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch into the cryptocurrency sector is expected to accelerate institutional allocations toward spot ETFs and enhance on-chain developments by 2026, according to the report. Bitwise projects Bitcoin will become less volatile, noting the cryptocurrency demonstrated lower volatility than some major technology stocks throughout 2025.

The firm expressed positive projections for Ethereum and Solana, particularly contingent upon passage of the CLARITY Act. Bitwise identified stablecoin growth and tokenization as significant trends, with Ethereum and Solana positioned as primary beneficiaries.

Institutional demand is forecast to increase substantially, with ETFs expected to acquire more than 100% of new supply for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, according to the report. Bitwise estimates that by 2026, most institutional investors will have access to cryptocurrency ETFs. The firm projects approximately 166,000 Bitcoin, 960,000 Ethereum, and 23 million Solana coins entering the market, with ETF purchases anticipated to exceed these figures.

The report projects cryptocurrency equities will outperform traditional technology stocks. The Bitwise Crypto Innovators Index, which tracks companies providing infrastructure and services for crypto assets, has recorded stronger gains than technology shares over the past three years, according to the firm. Bitwise attributes this momentum to potential revenue growth, mergers and acquisitions, and favorable regulatory conditions.

As stablecoins expand, Bitwise warned they may be blamed for destabilizing emerging market currencies. The market for stablecoins, including tokenized versions of the US dollar, is expected to grow substantially by the end of 2026, according to the report. The firm anticipates one or two countries may attribute financial troubles to stablecoins.

Bitwise forecasts the launch of over 100 crypto-linked ETFs in the United States, following anticipated SEC issuance of new listing standards enabling these funds to enter the market under a unified regulatory framework. The firm refers to this development as “ETF-palooza” in 2026.

The report also predicts half of Ivy League endowments will invest in cryptocurrencies, and that on-chain vault assets under management will double in coming years.

Analyst Kevin Svenson says Monero’s two-year parabolic trend could fuel an 80%+ rally and new all-time highs by mid-2026, backed by strong development activity.

Summary

Kevin Svenson argues Monero has quietly formed a two-year parabolic uptrend that could drive the privacy coin to new all-time highs around July 2026.​
Santiment data places Monero among the most active privacy projects on GitHub, signaling sustained developer commitment to the protocol.​
Svenson’s bullish view stands out against a sluggish wider crypto market, with no broad analyst consensus yet on his upside price target.

Cryptocurrency analyst Kevin Svenson has projected that privacy-focused digital asset Monero could experience significant price appreciation, potentially rising more than 80% from current levels by the second half of 2026, according to statements shared with his followers.

Monero shifts pattern
Svenson stated that Monero has been forming a two-year parabolic trend pattern and is approaching previous all-time high price levels. The analyst indicated that technical chart analysis suggests the cryptocurrency may reach new peak values around July 2026.

“Monero has been quietly building a two-year parabolic trend — now approaching all-time highs,” Svenson stated in his analysis. He characterized the technical setup as favorable for the privacy-focused cryptocurrency.

Monero ranks among the top 10 privacy-focused cryptocurrencies in terms of recent development activity, according to research published by analytics firm Santiment. The firm reported that Monero registered seven notable GitHub events over the past 30 days, placing it sixth among privacy coins based on development activity metrics.

Development activity on cryptocurrency projects typically indicates ongoing technical work and developer engagement with the protocol, according to industry analysts.

The projection comes as broader cryptocurrency markets have experienced periods of reduced momentum, according to market observers. Monero’s technical setup differs from many other digital assets currently, according to Svenson’s analysis.

No confirmation of the price target has been provided by other market analysts at this time.

Ethereum’s active addresses fall as retail retreats while price stabilization and returning demand remain critical for recovery.

Bears have pushed Ethereum’s (ETH) price below $2,850 on Thursday, amid a broader market downturn. Retail absence has also pushed Ethereum into a low-activity regime.

But similar conditions in the past have often appeared near structural bottoms.

Ethereum’s Retail Users Have Gone Quiet
According to CryptoQuant’s latest analysis, Ethereum’s network activity has fallen to a one-year low, showing a clear absence of retail participation. Active sending addresses have dropped toward the 170,000 level. In previous instances, this range indicated that retail traders have either exited the market or are unwilling to transact.

The decline often follows extended periods of volatility and corrective price action, which tend to weaken short-term confidence and engagement among smaller participants. From an on-chain perspective, such low activity levels are commonly associated with seller exhaustion, where selling pressure begins to fade, but fresh demand has yet to emerge.

While this environment limits short-term upside, since retail flows usually help drive momentum during early recoveries, it has also frequently identified phases where larger, long-term participants start accumulating ETH quietly.

CryptoQuant explained that price action alone will not be enough to confirm a recovery. Instead, a meaningful signal would come from a steady increase in active sending addresses alongside price stabilization, which indicates returning demand and improving network usage.

If address activity continues to decline or remains stagnant for an extended period, the risk of Ethereum entering a deeper consolidation or demand-destruction phase increases.

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This Fractal Chart Pattern Could Send ETH Back to $2,500: Analyst 

Market Remains Cautious
Not everyone is bullish on ETH’s recovery. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez, for one, warned in a recent tweet that if ETH closes December below $2,930, the market could face a sharper decline. Failing to hold this crucial level may push the altcoin down to $2,000, and in a worst-case scenario, even as low as $1,100.

On the institutional side as well, spot Ethereum ETFs saw significant outflows this week as investors reduced exposure amid market uncertainty. On Monday, nearly $225 million left these funds, driven by renewed US equity volatility and unclear global monetary policy. Data compiled by SoSoValue found that Tuesday saw similar selling, while Wednesday’s outflow was smaller, at $22.3 million.

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BTC has continued its drawdown, entering oversold territory not seen since the 2023 bear market. The current selling has been ongoing for 73 days since the recent all-time high. 

BTC is still trading with highly fearful sentiment, and has not staged a recovery despite the expectations for a year-end rally. The current market climate puts BTC at the most oversold level since the 2023 bear market. 

BTC is entering deeply oversold territory, after 73 days of sliding since its all-time high. | Source: Bitbo.
As of December 18, BTC traded at $86,948.17, with a dominance of 57.6%. The leading coin is just $10,000 above the yearly lows at around $76,000, raising comments that the market’s bullish momentum was wiped out in the latest crash.

The October 10 crash and liquidations have a lasting effect for over two months. Historically, BTC and crypto have taken at least three months to recover liquidity and speculative open interest. The recent slides below $90,000 further solidify the beliefs that BTC may take longer to recover for a new bull market. 

In the past months, BTC saw a mix of selling and re-accumulation to different wallets. Derivative trading sentiment remains fearful, with low enthusiasm for an imminent rally. BTC is pressured by ETF selling, while some traders are trying to protect their earnings from an eventual prolonged bear cycle. 

Can BTC reverse course? 
BTC has shown indications of becoming an oversold asset for the past two months. However, this was not enough to re-spark the price rally. 

The market is still vulnerable to liquidations, attacking long positions whenever there is more liquidity accumulated. 

There are also indicators of traders protecting from ongoing dips in the $80,000 range. BTC open interest is down to $27.4B, remaining at a six-month low. The drawdown continued since the yearly peak at over $44B as of October 6. 

Spot trading has also been insufficient to stop the slide. Episodes of rapid selling have also shown their ability to stop any attempts at breakout rallies. As Cryptopolitan reported, BTC recovered to $90,000, only to crash to $85,000 in minutes. Additional Glassnode data shows holders are still distributing their BTC holdings.

Based on options market positioning, traders may become more bullish above $90,000. At prices below that, traders opened more put options to protect from further downside.

BTC shows signs of local bottom
Based on the current metrics, BTC is showing signs of reaching a local low for its price. However, the markets are anticipating more dips, with downside protection for a slide under $80,000. 

BTC is setting expectations for ending December in the red, while logging a net yearly loss. 

Only around 64% of the BTC supply is in profit, once again sinking to levels not seen since 2023. For now, whales have realized enough gains, but BTC may see further selling at other capitulation levels. 

The net unrealized profit and loss still shows there are multiple wallets in profit even at thee $86,000 price range. The metric may indicate that there are still confident holders. On the other hand, an ongoing price weakness may mean the BTC capitulation is not over.

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Digital Wealth Partners launched an Arch-powered XRP algo strategy for qualified IRAs, giving wealthy investors tax-advantaged, professionally managed XRP exposure at Anchorage.

Summary

Digital Wealth Partners unveiled an XRP algorithmic trading strategy for qualified retirement accounts, targeting high-net-worth and accredited investors.​
The strategy runs as a separately managed account using Arch Public’s quantitative signals, automating trade execution instead of discretionary decisions.​
Client XRP is custodied at Anchorage Digital, a federally chartered digital asset bank, embedding institutional-grade security into tax-advantaged retirement structures.

Digital Wealth Partners (DWP), a U.S.-based registered investment advisory firm focused on digital assets, has introduced an algorithmic trading strategy for XRP (XRP) that can be deployed inside qualified retirement accounts, including IRAs, the company announced.

Digital Wealth Partners create environment for digital assets
The offering targets high-net-worth individuals and accredited investors seeking professionally managed cryptocurrency exposure within a tax-advantaged structure, according to the firm.

The XRP strategy operates through a separately managed account (SMA) structure and is powered by quantitative trading firm Arch Public, DWP stated. Trades are executed automatically using predefined quantitative signals and technical indicators, removing discretionary decision-making from the process, the company said.

The strategy functions within eligible retirement accounts, allowing investors to pursue active trading strategies without generating immediate taxable events, depending on the specific account type, according to DWP. This structure is typically unavailable to direct cryptocurrency traders operating in standard brokerage or exchange accounts.

All client assets are held at Anchorage Digital, a federally chartered digital asset bank that provides institutional-grade custody, the firm said. DWP stated that custody, security, and regulatory alignment were central considerations in structuring the strategy.

According to the firm, XRP was selected based on operational characteristics including the asset’s liquidity, transaction settlement speed, and volatility profile. DWP described these factors as suitable for systematic algorithmic trading.

The launch represents an expansion of institutional-style cryptocurrency strategies within traditional wealth and retirement frameworks, offering investors structured exposure through professional management and automated execution, the company said.

Joerg Hiller
Dec 18, 2025 08:15

Dogecoin technical analysis points to $0.136 consolidation zone with potential breakout to $0.156 or breakdown to $0.115 within 2 weeks based on RSI oversold conditions.

DOGE Price Prediction Summary
• DOGE short-term target (1 week): $0.136 (4.6% upside from current $0.13)
• Dogecoin medium-term forecast (1 month): $0.115-$0.156 range depending on breakout direction
• Key level to break for bullish continuation: $0.15 (Upper Bollinger Band resistance)
• Critical support if bearish: $0.12 (Strong support and Lower Bollinger Band)

Recent Dogecoin Price Predictions from Analysts
The latest DOGE price prediction data from Altpricer shows remarkable consistency, with analysts maintaining a tight consensus around the $0.136 level across five consecutive trading sessions. This Dogecoin forecast convergence suggests institutional confidence in this price zone as a fair value consolidation point.

The prediction cluster between $0.13640 and $0.13672 indicates that technical analysts are identifying similar support and resistance patterns. Unlike typical crypto prediction volatility, this narrow range suggests DOGE is entering a decisive consolidation phase that typically precedes significant directional moves.

What makes this DOGE price prediction particularly noteworthy is the medium confidence level maintained across all forecasts, suggesting analysts see clear technical setups but acknowledge the broader market uncertainty affecting the entire cryptocurrency sector.

DOGE Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Breakout Decision
Current Dogecoin technical analysis reveals a coin at a critical juncture. With DOGE trading at $0.13, exactly at its pivot point, the technical indicators are painting a mixed but increasingly constructive picture.

The RSI reading of 33.58 places Dogecoin in oversold territory, historically a precursor to bounce attempts. This oversold condition hasn't been this pronounced since DOGE tested its 52-week low, making current levels particularly attractive from a contrarian perspective.

The MACD histogram showing -0.0007 indicates bearish momentum is weakening considerably. While still negative, the minimal reading suggests the selling pressure that drove DOGE down 4.35% in the last 24 hours is losing steam. The Bollinger Bands position of 0.0036 confirms DOGE is hugging the lower band, a classic setup for mean reversion trades.

Volume analysis from Binance showing $118.6 million in 24-hour turnover demonstrates healthy liquidity, crucial for any sustainable price movement. The current Average True Range (ATR) of $0.01 suggests normal volatility levels, indicating the market isn't in panic mode.

Dogecoin Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish Case for DOGE
The primary DOGE price target for bulls sits at $0.156, representing the Upper Bollinger Band resistance. This 20% upside move would require breaking through the immediate resistance at $0.15, currently coinciding with the SMA 50 level.

For this bullish Dogecoin forecast to materialize, DOGE needs to reclaim the $0.14 level (SMA 20) first, which would shift the technical structure from bearish to neutral. A sustained move above $0.15 would activate the next resistance cluster around $0.19, offering potential 46% gains for aggressive bulls.

The oversold RSI provides the fundamental catalyst for this bounce, while the weakening MACD histogram suggests momentum could shift positive with modest buying pressure. Trading volume expansion above $150 million would confirm institutional participation in any upward move.

Bearish Risk for Dogecoin
The bear case scenario targets $0.115, representing a 11.5% decline from current levels. This DOGE price target comes into play if the critical $0.12 support level fails to hold, which would trigger stop-loss cascades and accelerate the downtrend.

A break below the 52-week low of $0.13 would be particularly concerning, as it would establish new bearish territory with limited historical support levels to rely upon. The next significant support after $0.12 doesn't appear until the psychological $0.10 level.

Key risk factors include broader cryptocurrency market weakness, regulatory concerns, or a general shift away from meme coins toward more utility-focused cryptocurrencies. The distance of 56.78% from the 52-week high also suggests DOGE remains vulnerable to further selling if market sentiment deteriorates.

Should You Buy DOGE Now? Entry Strategy
Based on the current Dogecoin technical analysis, a scaled entry approach appears most prudent. The optimal strategy involves buying 50% of intended position at current levels around $0.13, with the remaining 50% reserved for potential weakness toward $0.125.

For those asking whether to buy or sell DOGE, the answer leans slightly bullish given the oversold conditions and analyst consensus around fair value. However, position sizing should remain conservative given the broader market uncertainty.

Stop-loss levels should be placed below $0.115 for swing traders, representing roughly 11% downside risk. More aggressive traders might use $0.125 as their stop level, accepting 4% risk for potentially larger reward ratios.

The risk-reward profile currently favors buyers, with potential 20% upside to $0.156 versus 11% downside to the next major support. This 1.8:1 reward-to-risk ratio makes current levels attractive for calculated speculation.

DOGE Price Prediction Conclusion
The DOGE price prediction for the next two weeks centers on a breakout decision from the current $0.136 consolidation zone. With medium confidence, Dogecoin appears positioned for a 15-20% move in either direction, with technical indicators slightly favoring the upside.

The key confirmation signals to monitor include RSI breaking above 40 (bullish) or below 30 (bearish), MACD histogram turning positive, and most importantly, sustained trading volume above $150 million. These indicators will provide early warning of the directional bias.

This Dogecoin forecast carries medium confidence due to the clear technical setup but acknowledges that broader cryptocurrency market sentiment could override individual coin technicals. Traders should prepare for increased volatility as DOGE approaches this critical decision point, with the most likely timeline for resolution being within the next 7-10 trading sessions.

Image source: Shutterstock

doge price analysis
doge price prediction

Thinking about swapping Bitcoin for MARA Holdings after the recent sell-off? Here's what changed for miners and what matters most for investors now.

After peaking at $124,774 per coin on Oct. 7, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC +0.50%) has taken a tumble. As of the market close on Dec. 16, the leading cryptocurrency has dropped 31% to $86,413.

At the same time, Bitcoin mining veteran MARA Holdings (MARA 7.11%) has plunged 53% since mid-October. Assuming you see brighter days ahead for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, should you forget about Bitcoin and invest in MARA's deeper discount today?

Today's Change

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How MARA became a Bitcoin-first business
MARA has been a cryptocurrency mining specialist for a few years now. Then known as Marathon Patent Group, the company had built expertise in encryption technologies for more than a decade. It bought its first $150 million of Bitcoin and some mining equipment in January 2021, changed its name to Marathon Digital Holdings to reflect its newfound cryptocurrency focus, and set off on new adventures.

Marathon Digital Holdings often amplified whatever market moves Bitcoin was making. If the crypto was up, Marathon gained more. On a bearish Bitcoin day, Marathon posted a deeper dive. Generally speaking, the stock was just a more volatile version of owning Bitcoin.

The math changed for MARA
That tight correlation snapped in the spring of 2024:

MARA data by YCharts

Bitcoin had a couple of forces working in its favor.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January that year, fueling an inrush of capital into leading funds such as the iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT 2.01%) and the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB 2.02%).
Three months later, Bitcoin miners started receiving 3.125 Bitcoin instead of 6.25 Bitcoin as a reward for validating the next block of transaction data. The fourth halving in Bitcoin's history lowered its effective inflation rate and disrupted the economic model of Bitcoin mining operations.

As you might imagine, the halving event made Marathon's mining efforts less profitable. The costs of buying number-crunching equipment remained the same, and the electric bills increased. Sure, Bitcoin prices more than doubled over the next year and a half, but the competition for those sweet mining rewards also increased.

On average, Marathon produced about 28.8 Bitcoin per day in March 2024. The production rate fell to 24.5 Bitcoin per day 18 months later. Thanks to the increasing Bitcoin prices, Marathon's quarterly crypto-mining revenue rose 37% over this period. At the same time, the cost of producing the Bitcoin jumped 82% higher.

Image source: Getty Images.

MARA's next new plan: data centers, power sales, and AI
Marathon is no stranger to trying new ideas. The company changed names again in August 2024, and the revamped MARA Holdings company has expanded its business plan to include selling electric energy and data center space to other companies. That's mainly a play on the ongoing artificial intelligence (AI) boom, which shares much of its infrastructure with the crypto-mining community.

So you may see MARA's stock chart continue to loosen its Bitcoin bands over time. The company is still mining Bitcoin and buying more coins on the open market, and it's early days for its installation of AI-computing hardware in the Bitcoin mining centers, but MARA takes this alternative business seriously.

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MARA's discount comes with strings attached
MARA Holdings is a distinctly different company again, and its flexible operating plan could set the company up for Bitcoin-beating success over time. The idea is simple: Lean into AI computing when that's the more lucrative business, and refocus on Bitcoin mining when the AI demand is low, or Bitcoin prices are deeply discounted, or both.

However, MARA is entering another heavily contested market. It's not the only former Bitcoin mining specialist making this switch, and the repurposed miners face off against a plethora of much larger companies. Until further notice, I will continue to see MARA as a Bitcoin mining company, because it doesn't have any AI-related contracts to speak of yet.

I own a few MARA shares, but they are a microscopic part of my diversified portfolio. My direct exposure to Bitcoin is significantly larger, and that won't change anytime soon.

MARA's more sustainable long-term plan may make it a decent investment at today's low prices, but I'm in no hurry to forget about Bitcoin. If anything, I'm more likely to double down on my Bitwise Bitcoin ETF and direct Bitcoin holdings than to grow my MARA position in this dip. MARA's business is still primarily focused on Bitcoin-related activities, and the costs are rising faster than the mining rewards.

Felix Pinkston
Dec 18, 2025 08:33

AVAX trades near 52-week lows at $11.76, testing crucial support. Technical analysis suggests potential bounce to $14.50 (+23%) if support holds, or drop to $10.40 if broken.

Avalanche (AVAX) finds itself at a pivotal technical juncture as it trades near its 52-week low of $11.76, presenting both significant risk and opportunity for traders. This comprehensive AVAX price prediction analyzes the conflicting signals from recent analyst forecasts and technical indicators to project where AVAX might head in the coming weeks.

AVAX Price Prediction Summary
• AVAX short-term target (1 week): $14.50 (+23%) if support holds, $10.40 (-12%) if broken
• Avalanche medium-term forecast (1 month): $12.50-$16.00 range with potential breakout to $19.97
• Key level to break for bullish continuation: $15.09 resistance
• Critical support if bearish: $11.65 immediate support, then $10.40

Recent Avalanche Price Predictions from Analysts
The cryptocurrency community shows stark divisions in their Avalanche forecast, creating an intriguing setup for contrarian opportunities. DigitalCoinPrice's algorithmic models project a conservative AVAX price target of $10.40 in the short term, representing a 12% decline from current levels. This bearish outlook aligns with the current technical weakness shown in AVAX's position below all major moving averages.

Conversely, PriceForecastBot's AI-driven analysis presents a dramatically different AVAX price prediction, targeting $41.70 by December 2025 - a staggering 254% increase from current prices. This bullish Avalanche forecast suggests that current weakness represents a significant accumulation opportunity rather than the beginning of a prolonged bear market.

The consensus appears tilted toward caution in the near term, with long-term optimism intact. This divergence creates opportunities for traders who can accurately time the reversal from these oversold levels.

AVAX Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Potential Reversal
The current Avalanche technical analysis reveals a coin under significant selling pressure but approaching oversold conditions that historically precede meaningful bounces. With an RSI of 33.55, AVAX sits in neutral territory but trending toward oversold levels below 30, which could trigger buying interest from value hunters.

The MACD histogram at -0.0766 confirms bearish momentum remains intact, but the relatively small negative reading suggests selling pressure may be waning. More tellingly, AVAX's position at 0.02 on the Bollinger Bands indicates the price is hugging the lower band - a condition that often precedes sharp reversals when combined with oversold momentum indicators.

Volume analysis shows $47.6 million in 24-hour trading on Binance, which represents moderate interest but lacks the capitulation-style selling that typically marks major bottoms. The daily ATR of $0.86 suggests volatility remains elevated, providing opportunities for quick moves in either direction.

Avalanche Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish Case for AVAX
The primary bullish AVAX price prediction centers on a successful defense of the $11.65 support level, which coincides with both the daily low and the lower Bollinger Band. If this level holds, technical factors suggest a rapid move back toward the middle Bollinger Band at $13.35, representing a 13% gain.

A break above the EMA 12 at $12.83 would confirm short-term trend reversal and open the door to test immediate resistance at $15.09. This level represents a crucial AVAX price target, as a break above could trigger momentum buying toward the 50-day SMA at $14.86 and potentially the strong resistance zone at $19.97.

The most optimistic scenario aligns with PriceForecastBot's long-term Avalanche forecast, where sustained buying above $15.09 could initiate a broader recovery targeting the 200-day SMA at $21.32 over the next 2-3 months.

Bearish Risk for Avalanche
The bearish case for this AVAX price prediction hinges on a decisive break below the $11.65 support level, which would likely trigger stop-loss orders and accelerate selling toward DigitalCoinPrice's $10.40 target. This scenario gains credibility given AVAX's position below all major moving averages and the negative MACD reading.

A move below $10.40 would represent a new 52-week low and could trigger additional technical selling, potentially targeting the psychological $10.00 level. The bearish Avalanche forecast would be confirmed by sustained trading below the $11.65 support with increasing volume.

Risk factors supporting the downside include the broader cryptocurrency market's uncertain sentiment and AVAX's significant distance from major resistance levels, which creates substantial overhead supply.

Should You Buy AVAX Now? Entry Strategy
The current setup presents a classic "buy or sell AVAX" decision point that requires careful risk management. For aggressive traders, the optimal entry strategy involves scaling into positions near current levels with tight stop-losses below $11.50.

Conservative investors should wait for confirmation of support at $11.65 with a daily close above $12.50 before initiating positions. This approach reduces risk while still capturing the majority of the potential upside to $14.50-$15.09.

Position sizing should remain modest given the conflicting technical signals. A suggested approach allocates 2-3% of portfolio risk to AVAX with stop-losses at $11.40, representing approximately 3% downside risk for 20%+ upside potential to the first resistance cluster.

The risk-reward profile favors the bulls at current levels, but only with proper position sizing and defined exit strategies.

AVAX Price Prediction Conclusion
This AVAX price prediction carries medium confidence for a short-term bounce to $14.50 (+23%) within the next 2-3 weeks, contingent on successful defense of the $11.65 support level. The technical setup resembles previous oversold conditions that preceded significant rebounds in AVAX's price history.

Key indicators to monitor for confirmation include RSI moving above 40, MACD histogram turning positive, and sustained daily closes above $12.50. Invalidation signals would include breaks below $11.50 with increasing volume and RSI falling below 30.

The timeline for this Avalanche forecast extends through January 2025, with the critical test occurring within the next 5-7 trading days. Traders should prepare for elevated volatility as AVAX approaches this make-or-break technical juncture that will likely determine its trajectory into the new year.

Image source: Shutterstock

avax price analysis
avax price prediction

BNB price hovered near $830 as increased trading activity and falling open interest showed traders cutting risk during the recent pullback.

Summary

BNB trades near lower Bollinger Band after a sharp drop from recent highs.
Volume rose while open interest fell, pointing to position unwinding.
Charts still favor sellers unless price reclaims key resistance levels.

BNB changed hands at $832 at press time, falling roughly 4% over the past 24 hours as the recent pullback extended. Price has moved between $830 and $899 over the last seven days and is now down 4.3% on the week. Losses are deeper on a longer time frame, with BNB down 8.4% over the past 30 days and still 39% below its October peak of $1,369.

Trading activity picked up during the decline. BNB (BNB) recorded $2.51 billion in volume over the last 24 hours, up 33.6% from the previous day. This jump in volume points to active repositioning rather than quiet consolidation as the price moved lower.

Derivatives data adds context to the move. According to CoinGlass data, derivatives volume surged 48% to $2.03 billion, while open interest fell 1.72% to $1.33 billion. This mix suggests traders are closing positions into volatility, with leveraged exposure being reduced.

Fundamentals stay firm despite price weakness
The pullback comes even as BNB’s longer-term fundamentals continue to improve. Abu Dhabi Global Market recently granted Binance full regulatory approval, making it the first cryptocurrency exchange to receive exchange, clearing, and brokerage licenses under the framework. Binance’s reputation among institutions and regulators is enhanced by the approval.

BNB Chain is also seeing increased adoption in real-world applications. BlackRock’s tokenized treasury fund is now supported by the network, which enhances institutional credibility and generates real on-chain demand.

In addition, BNB’s auto-burn mechanism has been reducing the supply in circulation, strengthening its long-term value proposition.

There are also signs of steadier leadership, with Changpeng Zhao becoming more publicly engaged again after closing out legal proceedings. Attention is now turning back to stronger positioning in the U.S. market.

BNB price technical analysis
BNB trades close to the lower Bollinger Band near $830. Price behavior here reflects steady downside pressure rather than a sharp bounce from exhaustion. Volatility expanded during the recent selloff, and the price has struggled each time it moved toward the mid-band around $880.

BNB price daily chart. Credit: crypto.news
The general trend continues to point downward. Price action is still carving out lower highs and lower lows, and what used to be a solid support around $900 has flipped into a clear resistance.

Momentum is still soft. The relative strength index is holding below the 50 mark, and each bounce has faded quickly. Volume tells a similar story. The most aggressive trading showed up during the breakdown, while buying interest since then has been relatively thin.

Still in negative territory, the MACD remains below the signal line, showing that downside momentum has not faded. On the moving average side, price is trading well below every major short- and medium-term average, from the 10-day through the 200-day. 

A move back above $880 could ease pressure and open room toward the $900–$920 range. Failure to hold above $820, however, would keep the downside in play as long as the price stays under key moving averages.

Ethereum price action is sending mixed signals. After correcting over 3% in a day, ETH is flashing early rebound signs, but downside risk has not cleared yet. The chart structure, momentum data, and on-chain cost levels all point to a narrow decision zone.

Right now, Ethereum is stuck between a possible bounce and a deeper breakdown. And the gap between those two outcomes is smaller than it looks. What’s worth noting is that the breakdown zone looms closer!

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Rebound Signal Sits Inside a Tight TriangleEthereum is trading inside a narrowing triangle, a structure that reflects growing buyer-seller indecision. Price has compressed toward the lower trendline, often a zone where selling pressure starts to fade.

Between December 1 and December 17, ETH printed a higher low on price. At the same time, the RSI (Relative Strength Index), a momentum measuring tool, made a lower low. This creates hidden bullish divergence, meaning selling momentum is weakening.

Hidden Bullish Divergence: TradingViewWant more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

This setup does not guarantee a rally. But it does suggest downside pressure may be exhausting as Ethereum approaches structural support, the lower triangle trendline. In simple terms, sellers are losing strength, but buyers have not taken control yet.

That makes the next move highly sensitive to key levels.

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Cost Basis Data Shows Where Ethereum Price Rebound Could StallOn-chain cost basis data helps explain why upside may remain capped.

The strongest near-term resistance sits between $3,154 and $3,179, where roughly 2.8 million ETH were accumulated. This is a heavy supply zone. When price revisits this range, many holders reach break-even and tend to sell.

Key Supply Cluster: GlassnodeThis aligns closely with the chart resistance at $3,149, which marks an 11% upside from current levels. Even if the Ethereum price rebounds, this zone is likely to attract selling unless the price closes cleanly above it. That is why any bounce without a daily close above this area would still be considered corrective, not trend-changing.

The downside picture is more fragile.

The most important support cluster sits between $2,801 and $2,823. This range has acted as a key demand zone. A clean daily close below $2,801 (which also shows up on the price chart) would be a warning signal.

ETH Support Clusters: GlassnodeThat move would represent barely a 1% downside break, but it could open the door toward $2,617, the next major support level on the chart.

Ethereum Price Analysis: TradingViewThis is what makes Ethereum’s current position dangerous. Upside could stall near 11%, but downside risk begins with just a 1% failure.

A Bitcoin mining crackdown in China and a sharp decline in hashrate are behind the Bitcoin slump, according to analysts.

Bitcoin miners in China’s Xinjiang province are unplugging following another crackdown by Beijing this week. As many as 400,000 mining machines have already gone offline, causing a slump in hashrates.

Bitcoin is going down because selling pressure is stronger and coming from deeper sources, said analyst Bull Theory on Wednesday.

“One major reason is China’s mining crackdown coming back into focus,” they added.

Network hashrate has dropped by around 8%, which is a large move considering that China still controls roughly 14% of global hash power, they observed.

Asian Whales Selling BTC
The analyst added that Asian OG holders likely began selling weeks ago in anticipation of renewed restrictions, and on-chain data confirms increased long-term holder selling over the past couple of months. There has also been a miner capitulation as closed mining farms must sell BTC reserves and equipment to cover their losses.

Additionally, Asian exchanges such as Binance, Bybit, and OKX show consistent net spot selling through Q4, while US exchanges such as Coinbase show continued net buying, they added.

“This is not panic selling. This is supply changing hands. And price usually stays weak until that pressure is gone.”

WHY IS BITCOIN STILL DUMPING WHILE INSTITUTIONS ARE MAKING BILLION DOLLAR BUYS?

Bitcoin is not going down because fundamentals are weak.

It is going down because selling pressure is stronger and coming from deeper sources.

One major reason is China’s mining crackdown coming… pic.twitter.com/QBAG8PKAKh

— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) December 17, 2025

You may also like:

Bitcoin RSI Nears Oversold Levels That Historically Triggered Major Rallies

Bitcoin (BTC) Has Entered a Bearish Phase, Structural Indicators Confirm

Peter Schiff Warns Bitcoin May Crumble Before the Dollar

Bitcoin’s hashrate has dropped 10% from around 1,160 EH/s in October to ~1,045 EH/s in December, marking three consecutive negative difficulty adjustments, reported Luxor on Wednesday.

They noted that the trend was driven by three factors:

“Declining Bitcoin prices pushing legacy hardware into negative margins, regional enforcement actions removing capacity from major mining regions, and rising winter energy costs triggering seasonal curtailment across North America.”

This decline in hashrate is driven by a convergence of price compression, seasonal energy costs, and targeted regulatory pressure, which are all squeezing marginal miners simultaneously.

Additionally, hashprice, which quantifies the amount a miner can expect to earn from a specific quantity of hashrate, is at an all-time low of $0.036 per terahash per second per day, according to Luxor. Diminishing returns and increasing costs put more pressure on miners to sell.

BTC Continues to Fall
Bitcoin is bearing the brunt of this hashrate slump as it continues to weaken.

Aside from another manipulated pump-and-dump by derivatives degens, the asset is down on the day, having failed to reclaim $87,000.

It was trading at $86,560 at the time of writing, at the lower bounds of its range-bound channel that formed in late November.

Tags:

Key NotesMSTR Stock faces mounting pressure from roughly $720 million in annual preferred dividend obligations.All eyes are on whether MSTR can remain in the MSIC Index, amid talks of removing digital assets treasury (DAT) firms.Despite the sell-off and Schiff’s criticism, Michael Saylor remains confident in Strategy’s plan of long-term dividend payouts.
During the Dec. 17 trading session, the Strategy (MSTR) stock faced another 5.25% drop to $160. Amid the falling Bitcoin

BTC
$86 699

24h volatility:
0.2%

Market cap:
$1.73 T

Vol. 24h:
$49.48 B

price, the largest corporate holder of BTC is facing pressure on its stock. Popular economist Peter Schiff noted that another 50% crash in the MSTR stock price can’t be ruled out. 

MSTR Stock Can Drop to $80, Bitcoin Under $50K, Says Peter Schiff
Economist Peter Schiff has lashed out at the underperformance of the MSTR stock, a popular Bitcoin proxy bet, citing severe technical weakness. He added that the stock price could see a further sharp decline and fall to $80, which means 50% down from the current level.

Adding further, Schiff noted that such a correction in MSTR stock could also lead to a Bitcoin price crash under $50,000. According to the official Strategy website, the mNAV of MSTR is at $1.09. This shows that the company’s market cap is very close to its Bitcoin holdings. As a result, Strategy enjoys almost no to nil premium over BTC.

It’s hard to find a chart that looks worse than $MSTR. At a minimum, the stock should drop to about $80, which is half its current price. It’s hard to imagine MSTR dropping that much without a significant decline in Bitcoin as well. I’d say a minimum target for BTC is about $50K.

— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) December 17, 2025

Michael Saylor’s Strategy faces a tough time and mounting financial pressure as it commits to approximately $720 million in annual preferred dividend payments. According to market estimates, the company’s $1.44 billion capital buffer is sufficient to cover these obligations for roughly 24 months.

At the same time, investors are watching an upcoming decision by MSCI, expected within the next 30 days. If MSTR stock is excluded from relevant MSCI indices, analysts at JPMorgan estimate that the stock could face up to $2.8 billion in passive outflows.

Despite the concerns surrounding Strategy (MSTR), Michael Saylor has continued to buy more Bitcoins, taking his total holdings to 671,268 BTC. 

Why is @Saylor buying more Bitcoin for $MSTR when it’s trading at a discount to the Bitcoin it owns? If he cared about shareholder value he’d sell Bitcoin and buy back stock. That would increase the Bitcoin owned per share. His goal isn't to maximize value but to support Bitcoin.

— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) December 17, 2025

Michael Saylor Remains Absolutely Confident About MSTR Dividends
In his latest interview with Sky News, Saylor noted that if Bitcoin grows 0% for 100 years, they have about 75 years of dividends to pay. Even if BTC price grows marginally by 1.4% a year, Saylor said that his company can pay the dividends forever.

“If Bitcoin goes up more than 10.5% a year, we have escape velocity. The equity MSTR outperforms BTC,” he added.  With the MSTR stock already correcting nearly 65% from the top, some market analysts believe that it is in the oversold territory.

$MSTR looks extremely oversold here.

Once Bitcoin starts to move up we should see some nice price action from Strategy.

Don’t forget, they now hold more than 670,268 Bitcoin! pic.twitter.com/qfrqqKouW4

— Mister Crypto (@misterrcrypto) December 17, 2025

According to the latest information from BitcoinTreasuries, billionaire investor Steve Cohen’s hedge fund, Point72 Asset Management, has disclosed a new stake in Bitcoin-focused treasury firm Strategy (MSTR).

Meanwhile, Point72 purchased 390,666 shares of MSTR, representing an investment valued at approximately $65 million.

Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article aims to deliver accurate and timely information but should not be taken as financial or investment advice. Since market conditions can change rapidly, we encourage you to verify information on your own and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content.

Bitcoin News, Cryptocurrency News, News

Bhushan is a FinTech enthusiast and holds a good flair in understanding financial markets. His interest in economics and finance draw his attention towards the new emerging Blockchain Technology and Cryptocurrency markets. He is continuously in a learning process and keeps himself motivated by sharing his acquired knowledge. In free time he reads thriller fictions novels and sometimes explore his culinary skills.

Bhushan Akolkar on X

Ava Labs’ John Nahas says Avalanche is betting on sovereign, purpose-built blockchains, targeting ~200 institutional and enterprise chains across finance and AI.

Summary

Ava Labs’ John Nahas says Avalanche’s growth comes from purpose-built chains for specific use cases, not chasing three-month crypto Twitter narratives.​
Avalanche is approaching 80 live layer-1 chains with over 100 on testnet and targets about 200 institutional and enterprise networks next year.​
Firms like Toyota, FIFA and SMBC are building separate Avalanche environments as banks, asset managers and enterprises demand dedicated blockchain rails.

Ava Labs is pursuing a long-term strategy focused on purpose-built blockchains as the cryptocurrency market continues to cycle through short-term trends, according to the company’s chief business officer.

John Nahas, chief business officer at Ava Labs, discussed Avalanche’s (AVAX) expansion across traditional finance, global brands, and enterprise operators in an interview with TheStreet Roundtable’s Jackson Hinkle.

Nahas attributed the network’s growth to Avalanche’s underlying architecture and its focus on building blockchains designed for specific use cases rather than following short-term market trends.

Avalanche and the direction of AVA Labs
“If you hyper-focus on the crypto narratives that are on crypto Twitter, or these things that come and go for three or four months, you’re always playing catch-up,” Nahas stated. “Where we’ve been successful is in the medium to long term. Things that are worth doing take time.”

Avalanche, which regularly ranks among the top 15 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, is positioning itself around the thesis that cryptocurrency’s next phase will be built around sovereign, purpose-built layer-1 blockchains rather than a single chain serving all functions.

According to Nahas, much of the industry operates on what he described as a “first-generation business plan” based on the assumption that all activity will eventually settle on one network.

“We don’t need more block space. We don’t need more blockchains,” Nahas said. “But we do need more blockchains that are purpose-built, because that’s how the real world works.”

The company’s enterprise roster reflects this approach. “Banks want their own environment. Asset managers want their own environment. Enterprises want their own environment,” Nahas explained.

Toyota is building four distinct Avalanche chains, each designed for a different workflow, according to Nahas. FIFA and SMBC in Japan are also building independent environments on the platform.

Avalanche supports private permissioned, public permissionless, and hybrid chains that can all interoperate, according to the company.

“Effectively, you are giving people solutions rather than giving them a solution in search of a problem,” Nahas said.

The platform is approaching 80 Avalanche layer-one blockchains with over 100 on testnet, according to Nahas. He projected that around 200 institutional and enterprise chains will be operating across finance, identity, artificial intelligence and government by next year.

9h30 ▪
5
min read ▪ by
Luc Jose A.

Summarize this article with:

Hyperliquid submits a rare decision to its validators : to recognize as excluded from the supply the 37 million HYPE accumulated in its assistance fund, an address without a private key funded by trading fees. This governance vote, without on-chain action, could remove nearly one billion dollars from the circulating metrics. In a context where readability of economic data becomes central, the protocol plays a strategic card to clarify its tokenomics and strengthen its credibility.

In brief

Hyperliquid proposes a vote aimed at permanently excluding $1 billion in HYPE from its total supply.
The tokens concerned are stored in an assistance fund, automatically funded by trading fees.
This fund is technically inaccessible, as it is linked to an address without a private key or possible control.
The objective is to clarify supply metrics to enhance transparency and governance.

A vote to lock $1 billion of HYPE ?
While many observers wonder if blockchain can avoid disaster, the Hyper Foundation in its latest proposal submitted to validators calls to formally recognize that HYPE tokens stored in the assistance fund are “definitely inaccessible” and should be considered “burned”.

“By voting yes, validators agree to treat HYPE from the assistance fund as burned”, the document reads. This system address, integrated at the core of the protocol, is not associated with any private key or control mechanism, making the funds it holds irreversibly locked, except in case of a hard fork, a scenario the foundation aims to prevent with this vote.

Today, this wallet contains about $1 billion worth of HYPE, derived from an automatic mechanism that converts trading fees generated on the network into tokens sent to this address.

The goal is not to technically reduce the supply through an active burn mechanism but to clarify how these tokens should be accounted for in the protocol’s official metrics, particularly for governance and economic analyses.

This social consensus aims to establish a common position on the permanent exclusion of these tokens from the circulating and total supply. To better understand what the assistance fund represents in Hyperliquid’s architecture, here are the main points to remember :

The assistance fund is a protocol mechanism integrated into the execution layer of the Hyperliquid blockchain ;

It is automatically funded by trading fees: these are converted into HYPE and transferred to a locked system address ;

This address has no private key or administrative access, making the funds technically inaccessible ;

To date, it contains about $1 billion worth of HYPE, a significant portion of the total supply ;

The vote aims to formalize that these tokens can never be recovered or even counted in the token’s economic metrics.

Thus, this first phase of the vote is intended to strengthen the consistency between the technical reality of the protocol and how economic data is interpreted by the community, analysts, and market participants.

Hyperliquid : Between Controlled Supply Strategy and Institutional Attractiveness
Alongside this accounting clarification, the economic implications of the proposal are far from neutral.

According to Native Markets, issuer of the native USDH stablecoin, “50 % of the stablecoin reserve yield is directed towards the assistance fund and converted into HYPE”. If the vote is validated, these amounts will also be formally considered “burned”.

This dynamic mechanically reinforces the impression of a continuous decrease in the effective supply without resorting to an active burn mechanism. A strategy that attracts certain institutions. In an analysis note, Cantor Fitzgerald estimated that 99 % of the protocol’s fees are already redirected to this fund, contributing to “a gradual reduction of the circulating supply” of HYPE.

According to Cantor, two major entities hold significant amounts of HYPE: Hyperion DeFi (HYPD) with about $46 million, and Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR) with nearly $340 million in cash. Meanwhile, DefiLlama ranks Hyperliquid as the third-largest perpetual products DEX, with a volume of $205 billion over the last 30 days. So many on-chain data illustrating the protocol’s rise and the importance of clear governance in the eyes of potential partners.

This vote illustrates how DeFi seeks to reconcile accounting rigor and community governance. By deciding on the nature of these inaccessible funds, Hyperliquid sets a precedent that could inspire other protocols faced with dormant liabilities or opaque mechanisms.

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Luc Jose A.

Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019.
Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.

TLDR:

Bitcoin ETFs recorded $634.8M outflows over two days amid BTC correction.
Fear & Greed Index at 11 shows extreme market fear.
Miners reduce BTC sent to exchanges, easing short-term selling pressure.
Whales accumulated 694K BTC in 60 days, maintaining long-term supply discipline.

Bitcoin is under pressure as short-term selling accelerates, while long-term holders maintain strategic retention. 

Bitcoin traded at $86.9 at the time of publication, posting a slight daily gain of 0.85% but experiencing a weekly decline of 4.01%. Market dynamics show a sharp contrast between institutional outflows and continued accumulation by major holders.

Recent movements indicate that ETF liquidations are weighing on market sentiment. 

While ETFs report large-scale outflows, miners and whales are signaling supply discipline, suggesting the market is navigating immediate stress rather than fundamental weakness.

Bitcoin ETF Outflows Drive Short-Term Market Stress
Bitcoin is under pressure as ETFs recorded withdrawals totaling $634.8 million over two days. 

This level of capital movement emphasizes near-term selling pressure among institutional participants. Exchange-traded funds, often considered key liquidity providers, are currently reducing exposure amid ongoing market volatility.

Additional sentiment indicators reinforce the selling trend. The Coinbase Premium Gap sits at -16.04, reflecting weaker buying demand, while the Fear & Greed Index at 11 points to extreme fear among market participants. 

On-chain data shows SOPR at 0.98, signaling coins are being sold at a loss and short-term holders are capitulating.

Short-term stress also emerges from broader on-chain metrics. Supply in Loss has risen to 35%, while MVRV-STH is at 0.84, confirming that recent entrants are experiencing negative returns. 

Social media commentary from Cryptoquant analyst GugaOnChain notes that this pressure is concentrated among short-term holders rather than long-term participants.

Long-Term Holders Retain BTC, Reducing Available Supply
While ETF selling accelerates, long-term holders continue to tighten supply. The Puell Multiple at 0.85 points to moderate undervaluation, indicating miners may limit BTC sales during this period. 

Reduced distribution from miners suggests that supply pressure is being managed despite market stress.

Miner activity further supports retention trends. The Miner Position Index at -0.81 shows fewer coins moving to exchanges, mitigating selling pressure. 

This indicates miners are holding strategically, maintaining market stability during a correction.

Whale accumulation reinforces the long-term outlook. Addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC accumulated roughly 694,000 BTC over the past 60 days. 

The MVRV-LTH of 1.55 shows long-term holders remain profitable, with continued conviction in Bitcoin’s future. Michael Saylor’s holdings, exceeding 671,000 BTC, exemplify the persistence of major market players despite short-term volatility.

Bitcoin is under pressure from institutional selling, yet long-term holders are reinforcing supply discipline. 

Market trends suggest a divergence between immediate stress and strategic retention, highlighting contrasting behaviors in current trading dynamics.

Crypto prices today dipped due to a pullback in U.S. equities that pushed investors away from risk assets.

Summary

Crypto prices fell, dragging the market down to just over $3T.
Tech stock declines fueled crypto losses and volatility.
Analysts see continued pressure, but BTC may rebound if conditions ease.

The total crypto market value fell about 1% on the day to $3.01 trillion. Bitcoin was trading near $86,816 at press time, down 0.5% over the past 24 hours. Ethereum posted a steeper drop, falling roughly 3% to $2,838.

Losses were heavier across major altcoins. XRP slipped 3.4% to $1.86, while Dogecoin fell 4% to $0.1255. Hyperliquid saw one of the sharpest moves among larger tokens, down about 8% to $24. Market sentiment remained fragile. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose one point to 17, but stayed firmly in “extreme fear” territory.

Derivatives markets pointed to continued pressure. CoinGlass data showed 24-hour liquidations jumping 126% to $536 million. Open interest across the crypto market declined 1.22% to $124 billion, suggesting traders were reducing leverage.

The average crypto market relative strength index hovered around 34, close to neutral but leaning weak.

Tech sell-off and market risk
The latest downturn came alongside a Dec. 17 sell-off in U.S. stocks, led by tech names. The Nasdaq tumbled 1.9% after Nvidia, Broadcom, Oracle, and Alphabet all posted sharp losses on valuation concerns, rising costs, and slower-than-expected AI profitability. Dropping about 1.2%, the S&P 500 also hit a three-week low.

Crypto has increasingly tracked moves in tech stocks this year, and the latest equity pullback spilled into digital assets. As stocks fell, traders rotated out of higher-risk positions, triggering further downside in leveraged crypto markets.

Short-term outlook and analyst views
Bitcoin continues to trade in a wide consolidation range after failing to hold recent highs. Many traders are watching the $85,000–$86,000 zone as near-term support, with resistance seen just below $90,000. A break in either direction could set the tone for year-end, when liquidity typically thins.

Selling pressure appears to have picked up from longer-term holders. Wu Blockchain, citing K33 Research, reported that roughly $300 billion worth of previously dormant Bitcoin has entered the market this year. Over the past month, long-term holder selling has reached its highest level in five years.

K33 Research data shows that in 2025 alone, nearly $300 billion worth of previously dormant Bitcoin re-entered circulation. CryptoQuant reports that the past 30 days have seen one of the heaviest distributions by long-term holders in more than five years. Previously, this selling…

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) December 17, 2025

Earlier in the cycle, inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds helped absorb much of that supply. More recently, ETF demand has cooled, while derivatives activity and retail participation have also eased, leaving the market more exposed to spot selling.

Julio Moreno, head analyst at CryptoQuant, noted that Bitcoin’s current cycle is past its peak. He said the focus should be on demand waves rather than the halving alone. According to Moreno, BTC is now descending toward a low point in the cycle, making the recent volatility part of a broader corrective phase rather than an isolated shock.

Despite the short-term weakness, some analysts maintain a constructive view on Bitcoin over a longer horizon. Bitwise chief investment officer said he expects Bitcoin’s volatility to fall below that of Nvidia next year as institutional participation grows. He also forecasts a new all-time high for BTC, even as near-term price action remains uneven.

For now, markets are watching for the U.S. CPI data release and the Bank of Japan’s policy decision this week, which are likely to influence risk sentiment in the short-term.

A cryptocurrency analyst has explained where Ethereum could go next based on a long-term Parallel Channel forming in its monthly price chart.

Ethereum Has Been Trading Inside A Parallel Channel For The Last Few Years
In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about a long-term pattern that Ethereum has appeared to have been following for the last few years. The pattern in question is a “Parallel Channel” from technical analysis (TA), which forms whenever an asset’s price trades between two parallel trendlines.

The upper level of a Parallel Channel is likely to facilitate top formations in the asset, while the lower one can act as a support boundary and allow the price to remain above it.

Parallel Channels can be of a few different types depending on how the lines are oriented with respect to the graph axes. If the channel has some slope, it falls into either the Ascending or Descending categories. Naturally, it’s the former when the lines are angled upward and latter when they are downward.

In the context of the current topic, the simplest type of Parallel Channel is of relevance: a channel that has zero slope. That is, a pattern with lines that are parallel to the time-axis. As an asset trades inside such a channel, it experiences consolidation in an exactly sideways manner.

If one of the levels of the pattern break, a sustained continuation of trend may occur in that direction. This means that a surge above the resistance can be a bullish signal, while a fall under support a bearish one.

Now, here is the chart shared by Martinez that shows the Parallel Channel that the monthly price of Ethereum has been trading inside for the last few years:

The price of the coin seems have been trading at the midway point of the channel in recent days | Source: @ali_charts on X
As displayed in the above graph, the recent bearish wave in Ethereum has meant that its 1-month price has retraced to the midway line of the Parallel Channel located at $2,930.

Martinez has noted that if ETH closes December below this level, a decline to lower levels could occur. The next potential support is situated at $2,000, corresponding to the 25% mark of the Parallel Channel. The cryptocurrency found support around this line in the starting months of 2025.

In the scenario that this level also fails, Ethereum may be looking at a fall to the bottom line of the Parallel Channel at $1,090. The asset last retested it back in 2022 and successfully found support.

It now remains to be seen how ETH will close out the month and whether one of the next two levels of the pattern will come into play.

ETH Price
At the time of writing, Ethereum is floating around $2,860, down over 15% in the last seven days.

The trend in the price of the coin over the last five days | Source: ETHUSDT on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

7h05 ▪
3
min read ▪ by
Evans S.

Summarize this article with:

Solana is not collapsing but shows a clear cooling in the crypto market. SOL lost 52% between September 18 and November 21, in a context where altcoins have dropped. The key point is not just the price drop towards a possible 80 dollar scenario, it is the simultaneous decline of on-chain indicators, which suggests a real decrease in usage and engagement on the network.

In brief

Solana falls sharply, with SOL down 52%, and on-chain signals confirm a network cooldown
TVL falls to 8.67 billion dollars, while flows via ETFs are not enough to revive activity
Lower fees, fewer active addresses, and fewer transactions reinforce downward pressure, with 80 dollars as a risk zone.

Solana’s TVL falls, and it’s not just a dashboard number
Solana continues to attract flows via its ETFs, despite its decline. But this movement doesn’t necessarily reflect in on-chain activity. At the same time, the total value locked on Solana fell to 8.67 billion dollars, a six-month low, compared to a peak of 13.22 billion reached on September 14. In other words, more than a third of the locked value has evaporated. This is not a detail. It is a confidence contraction, or at least a tactical disengagement.

What strikes is the duration. The TVL has remained under 10 billion dollars over the last 30 days, a signal that the crypto market cannot ignore. In a network that also lives on its “fast and cheap” narrative, holding a weak TVL for too long ends up weighing on perception. And perception, in market terms, is often the first domino.

The decline also has a face. Liquidity staking via Jito reportedly dropped about 53% since mid-September, and major applications like Jupiter, Raydium, and Sanctum show marked decreases. We can call it a rotation. We can also see it as a drop in risk appetite on the Solana ecosystem.

Less activity, fewer fees, fewer reasons to buy SOL
Next comes a signal often underestimated in the crypto market: fees. Last week, on-chain fees reportedly reached 3.43 million dollars, down about 11% over a week and 23% over a month. It’s not just an indicator; it’s the pulse of the network.

Same dynamic on Solana usage. Active addresses reportedly declined about 7.8% over seven days, and transactions about 6.3%. Taken separately, each of these numbers is debatable. Together, they tell a story of declining on-chain demand. And when demand decreases, price pressure becomes mechanical.

That’s where SOL gets stuck. The token is both a speculative asset and fuel. If the ecosystem consumes less, the fuel interests less. And in this context, every rebound looks more like a breathing than a real regime change.

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Evans S.

Fascinated by Bitcoin since 2017, Evariste has continuously researched the subject. While his initial interest was in trading, he now actively seeks to understand all advances centered on cryptocurrencies. As an editor, he strives to consistently deliver high-quality work that reflects the state of the sector as a whole.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.

Bitcoin’s violent move on December 17 caught traders off guard. In a single day, BTC surged to around $90,500 before reversing hard and sliding toward $85,200. From high to low, that was a swing of more than 5%, or roughly $5,000.

This was not news-driven. It was structure-driven. Three charts explain why the move happened, why it stalled exactly where it did, and why similar volatility remains possible.

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Volume Breakdown Signaled Risk Before the DropBefore the sell-off, the BTC price action already showed stress. Between December 15 and December 17, the Bitcoin price printed a marginal higher low on the daily chart. On the surface, that looked stable. But On-Balance Volume told a different story.

OBV tracks whether volume confirms price moves. During this period, OBV failed to follow the price higher and instead made a lower low. That bearish divergence signaled distribution. In simple terms, price was holding up, but volume was quietly flowing out.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

First Trigger For The Volatile Price Swing: TradingViewWhen Bitcoin pushed toward $90,500, it did so with weak participation. That made the rally fragile. Once selling started, there was no volume support beneath, which turned a pullback into a sharp intraday whiplash.

In markets, whiplash refers to a rapid move up followed immediately by a sharp move down, or vice versa.

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Cost Basis Heatmap Shows Why $90,500 Rejected and $85,200 HeldOn-chain cost basis data explains the exact turning points.

The cost basis heatmap shows a dense supply cluster between $90,168 and $90,591. Around 115,188 BTC were accumulated in this zone. When the price revisited this range, many holders reached break-even.

BTC Supply Cluster: GlassnodeThat could have created immediate sell pressure. Combined with OBV weakness, this cluster acted like a ceiling. The rally stalled, then reversed.

On the downside, the story changes.

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Another strong cluster sits between $84,845 and $85,243. This is the most concentrated near-term support zone on the chart. As the price fell, buyers stepped in aggressively here. That is why the Bitcoin price did not collapse further, even during forced liquidations.

Key Support Cluster: GlassnodeSo the move was boxed in. Sellers defended $90,500. Buyers defended $85,200. The whiplash happened inside those walls.

Bitcoin Price Levels Now Decide If Volatility ReturnsStructurally, Bitcoin is still holding a mild uptrend from the November 21 low. That matters. Yesterday’s volatility event was inside the range.

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For upside continuation, one level stands out. Bitcoin must post a clean daily close above $90,500. That level has not been reclaimed since December 13. Without a close above it, any rally risks another rejection.

Above that, $92,200 to $92,300 becomes critical. On-chain data shows another supply cluster there. Traders should expect friction unless the price clears that zone decisively. Also, traders reading this might want to consider complete daily closes above key levels mentioned on the charts instead of wick-styled breakouts.

Key Upside Clusters: GlassnodeOn the downside, $85,000-$85,200 remains the key zone. As long as this cluster holds, a deeper downside is less likely. A failure there would expose $83,800, but breaching $85,000 would require fresh liquidation pressure.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: TradingViewThe takeaway is simple. Bitcoin’s 5%+ whiplash was not random. It was the result of weak volume, heavy supply at known cost levels, and tight liquidity. Until those structures change, sharp moves like this remain part of the crypto market’s reality.

Crypto markets remain under strain as bitcoin struggles to regain momentum, hovering near the $87,000 level amid growing concerns of a deeper downturn extending into early 2026. The latest price action suggests that the recent rebound is losing strength, with brief rallies quickly followed by renewed selling pressure, reinforcing a cautious outlook across digital asset markets.

Bitcoin briefly pushed toward $90,000 earlier this week but failed to hold gains, underperforming equity markets during a period of heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. According to market data and analyst commentary, traders are increasingly positioning for downside risk, particularly around the Dec. 26 options expiry. Derivatives data highlights a significant concentration of put options at the $85,000 strike, signaling expectations that bitcoin prices could fall below this key level in the near term.

Implied volatility over the past 30 days has climbed toward 45%, while options skew remains firmly negative, reflecting strong demand for downside protection. Longer-dated skew is also negative, indicating bearish sentiment that stretches well into the first half of 2026. Analysts note that defensive positioning has intensified as the year draws to a close, with bitcoin’s late-November uptrend now broken and price behavior resembling prior sell-off phases marked by sharp but unsustainable rebounds.

Ether has shown relatively more balance, with longer-dated options skew closer to neutral. However, traders have still accumulated a notable volume of puts around the $2,500 level for late December, underscoring lingering downside concerns in the broader crypto market.

Beyond short-term trading dynamics, some analysts are warning of a potential long-term cycle shift. Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone cautioned that bitcoin’s rally above $100,000 earlier this year may have set the stage for a much deeper retracement, possibly toward $10,000 by 2026, as periods of extreme gains often precede sharp corrections.

On-chain data adds to the cautious tone, showing short-term holders remaining underwater and long-term holders reducing exposure since mid-year. With leverage still elevated and geopolitical and macro risks looming, market participants appear braced for continued volatility, keeping downside risks firmly in focus as bitcoin heads into 2026.

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