Market Signal Briefing

TLDR:

BNB maintains its $115.3 billion market cap despite a 2.55% drop in the last 24 hours.
Resistance at $870 consolidates as the primary obstacle to reclaiming the bullish trend.
Network fundamentals show solid growth, with a 35% increase in daily transactions.

Amidst a day of uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market, the BNB price analysis has become a focal point for investors. Currently, the BNB Chain token is trading near $837, successfully defending its position as the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, just ahead of XRP.

Despite the selling pressure that recently reduced its value, the asset demonstrates significant technical resilience in a generalized pullback environment.

Recent chart behavior shows that the BNB price analysis is marked by failed attempts to overcome the $870 zone. This psychological and technical barrier has rejected multiple buyer attacks, forcing the price to seek liquidity at lower levels. Until a convincing close above this resistance is achieved, upward momentum will remain limited, leaving traders in anticipation of a greater consolidation.

On-chain Fundamentals vs. Price Action
While exchanges are experiencing intense volatility, internal network data suggests a much more constructive outlook. During the third quarter, daily transactions on BNB Chain grew by more than 35%, while active addresses skyrocketed by 47%.

In November alone, the network processed over 444 million transactions—a figure that proves real adoption continues to expand. However, the BNB price analysis indicates that this fundamental metric and market value are currently out of sync.

Key factors to watch in the coming days include the $830 support level, which serves as the immediate line of defense; a break below this point could expose the asset toward $709.

On the upside, any significant rebound requires first reclaiming $845 to attempt a new assault on local highs.

Investors must remain attentive to overall market sentiment, as the current $1.8 billion trading volume reflects a reactive attitude rather than long-term confident positioning.

Bitcoin is hovering just above $85,000, barely batting an eyelash at the softer-than-expected, highly scrutinized U.S. inflation numbers.

Summary

Bitcoin remains around $85,000 with little reaction to softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data, as $504M in liquidations hit the market in the past 24 hours.
Notable analysts on X are weighing in on Bitcoin’s ongoing price struggles.
Traders brace for volatility with the Bank of Japan’s upcoming decision and Bitcoin facing key resistance at $88K while support holds near $85.4K.

Trader insights
Crypto chart guru Ali Martinez notes that Bitcoin is still stuck in a box on lower timeframes, facing resistance just under $90,000 and finding support near $85,400. A breakout could kick-start some bullish vibes, while a breakdown could mean more pain ahead.

Daan Crypto Trades also provided an interesting take.

Bitcoin is likely to see a larger price move before the end of the month, citing historical patterns in monthly trading ranges.

So far, Bitcoin’s distance between its monthly low and high is about 12%, which is smaller than usual, as monthly candles typically show wider price swings more than 90% of the time. It is statistically unlikely, therefore, that both the monthly high and low were set early in the month.

This suggests one of those levels is still likely to be breached. While the data does not indicate direction, it implies heightened volatility ahead, with Bitcoin positioned near the middle of its monthly range and at least a 5% move needed to test either extreme.

$BTC The current monthly low to high is still relatively small (~12%).

Monthly candle generally see a bigger disclacement than that. This happens in 92.3% of months.

With that, the current second pivot (P2) is set on the 9th of December, when the current high was set. It would… pic.twitter.com/vruBkRfQSZ

— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) December 14, 2025

Michael van de Poppe, another analyst, said Bitcoin’s recent price action highlights the market’s sensitivity to macro events, even in the face of positive economic data.

Despite encouraging U.S. inflation numbers and a brief push higher, Bitcoin quickly reversed, underscoring the importance of the $88,000 level as a key resistance that must be cleared to restore upward momentum.

The analyst pointed to the Bank of Japan’s policy decision as the most critical catalyst of the week, noting that while equities such as the Nasdaq are rallying and gold remains stable, cryptocurrencies are lagging as traders brace for the possibility of a rate hike.

An update on the $BTC chart.

Great CPI news, some upwards momentum, and then, again, a harsh correction.

It's clear that the $88K level is the ultimate one, and that's what the markets need to break up in order to be getting some momentum.

It's also quite clear that the BoJ… pic.twitter.com/vYpA2MwYLe

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) December 18, 2025

Journalist

Posted: December 19, 2025

The broader market sentiment has shrunk into “extreme fear” ahead of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision on the 19th of December. 

This was similar to “fear levels” seen in mid-November when Bitcoin broke below $100K and during Trump tariff wars in Q1 2025.

Source: CryptoQuant

Historically, such past extreme fear readings also marked bottoms, providing exceptional buying opportunities. But will the BoJ rate hike drag BTC lower, or is it already priced in? 

Is the BoJ fear overblown?
According to Polymarket, the market consensus leaned towards a 25 basis point (bps) rate hike for the December meeting. However, for the January decision, the rate pause was more likely.  

Source: Polymarket

Given that the Japanese yen is a major global funding currency, such a rate hike led to a carry trade unwind last August, triggering a BTC sell-off.

The rate hike makes it expensive to borrow in yen and forces institutions to reduce yen-based exposure, triggering broader liquidation. 

In fact, historical data showed that BTC dropped 20%-30% every time the BoJ hiked rates. Hence, the current fears were justified. 

Market positioning leans bearish
On market positioning, Nick Forster, Co-Founder of crypto options platform Derive, stated that traders were positioning for a dip below $85k. 

“On the downside, bears have accumulated substantial put exposure at the $85K strike, pointing to expectations of BTC sliding below $85K in the near term.”

The market caution extended into early Q1 2026, Forster added. 

“BTC positioning remains decisively bearish. 30-day BTC volatility has climbed back toward 45%, while skew hovers around -5%. Longer-dated skew is also anchored around -5%, signalling that traders are pricing continued downside risk through Q1 and Q2.”

At press time, just hours before the release of the U.S inflation print, BTC traded at $87K. The asset saw a liquidity grab that briefly pushed it to $90K before retracing the gains. 

Source: CoinAnk

Still, there were upside liquidity pools at $90.8K and $94.5K-$95K and a lower-side pool at $83K (brighter shades). These were key levels that could be tagged ahead of expected volatility.  

On ETF demand, the appetite was mixed with over $600 million outflows earlier in the week, followed by a $457 million inflow on the 17th of December, underscoring mixed signals. 

If it faces rejection at $90K again, shorting would make sense, even for non-BTC traders. Especially if BTC dominance spikes higher, as seen during the recent price decline. 

Source: BTC Dominance (TradingView)

Even so, Grayscale expects a strong rebound and a new ATH in H1 2026, which would make current levels a discount buy for long-term holders if validated. 

Final Thoughts 

BTC flashed mixed signals ahead of the Bank of Japan rate hike decision.
Experts projected a potential dip below $85K, which could present a shorting opportunity for traders.  

Bitcoin has been under intense selling pressure in recent sessions, leaving market participants increasingly cautious about near-term direction. On Wednesday, BTC briefly surged from the $86,000 area toward $90,000, offering short-term investors a moment of relief after weeks of downside volatility.

That rebound, however, proved short-lived. Price quickly retraced back to the $86,000 level, once again stalling bullish momentum and reinforcing the perception that sellers remain firmly in control.

This failed recovery attempt has weighed heavily on sentiment, particularly among short-term holders who entered positions at higher levels during the previous consolidation range. According to a report by Axel Adler, on-chain data reveals that this cohort has entered a clear stress regime. Bitcoin’s price has fallen below the average purchase price of short-term holders, a condition that historically increases the probability of reactive selling behavior.

The stress is further reflected in the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR, 30-day), which has declined to 0.98. This reading indicates that short-term holders are, on average, realizing losses when they sell. Such environments often coincide with deteriorating confidence and heightened sensitivity to further downside moves.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR | Source: CryptoQuant
With BTC unable to hold recent relief rallies and short-term participants increasingly underwater, the market enters a fragile phase. The coming days will be critical in determining whether this pressure evolves into deeper capitulation or stabilizes into a base-building process.

Short-Term Holders Under Stress as Loss-Taking Accelerates
Adler explains that the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR 30D) is a critical gauge of short-term market stress, as it measures whether recent coin sales are occurring at a profit or a loss. Values above one indicate that short-term holders are selling profitably, while readings below one signal loss realization.

Historically, sustained periods below one reflect deteriorating confidence and raise the risk of further downside, as loss-taking behavior can cascade into additional sell pressure. A continued decline in SOPR would likely intensify this dynamic and open the door to new local lows.

By contrast, a meaningful recovery would require the metric to reclaim and hold above the one level, signaling that selling pressure is being absorbed and losses are no longer dominant.

This stress is reinforced by the Short-Term Holders Positive vs Negative Sentiment chart. The indicator classifies holders based on whether they are in profit or at a loss. Over the past five weeks, sentiment has shifted decisively toward the orange and purple zones, representing negative positioning.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Positive vs Negative Sentiment | Source: CryptoQuant
The growing dominance of underwater holders increases the probability of panic-driven selling. Together, both charts deliver a consistent message: short-term participants are under pressure, and the current environment remains fragile until clear signs of relief emerge.

Bitcoin Tests Critical Support as Bears Persist
Bitcoin continues to trade under pressure, with the chart showing price consolidating around the $87,000 area after a sharp corrective move from the October highs near $125,000. The rejection from the upper range marked a clear shift in market structure, as BTC lost the 50-day and 100-day moving averages and failed to reclaim them on subsequent rebounds. The blue moving average has now turned downward, reinforcing the short- to medium-term bearish bias.

BTC facing critical support | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Price is currently hovering just above the 200-day moving average, plotted in red, which sits near the $86,000–$88,000 zone. This level represents a critical area of long-term demand and structural support. Historically, sustained closes below the 200-day average tend to coincide with deeper corrective phases or prolonged consolidation.

Volume dynamics add to the cautious outlook. Selling pressure expanded significantly during the breakdown in October and November, while recent rebound attempts have occurred on relatively muted volume. This suggests that short-covering and tactical buying, rather than strong spot demand, are driving price stabilization.

Structurally, Bitcoin is forming lower highs since the peak, keeping the broader trend vulnerable. A recovery scenario would require BTC to reclaim the $95,000–$100,000 region and hold above the declining moving averages. Until then, the chart favors continued consolidation or further downside risk around the long-term support zone.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price attempted to start a fresh increase but failed at $89,500. BTC is now struggling below $86,500 and might continue to move down.

Bitcoin started a fresh decline below the $86,500 zone.
The price is trading below $86,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $87,250 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
The pair might continue to move down if it settles below the $85,000 zone.

Bitcoin Price Dips Again
Bitcoin price attempted a fresh recovery wave above $88,000 and $88,500. BTC tested the $89,500 resistance zone and reacted to the downside. There was a sharp decline below $88,000.

There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $87,250 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The price even spiked below the $85,000 support. However, the bulls were active near the $84,500 zone. A low was formed at $84,421 and the price is now consolidating losses below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $89,437 swing high to the $84,421 low.

Bitcoin is now trading below $87,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If the bulls remain in action, the price could attempt more gains. Immediate resistance is near the $86,600 level. The first key resistance is near the $87,000 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $89,437 swing high to the $84,421 low.

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
The next resistance could be $88,000. A close above the $88,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $88,800 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $89,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $90,000 and $90,500.

More Losses In BTC?
If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $87,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $85,000 level. The first major support is near the $84,500 level.

The next support is now near the $83,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $82,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $80,500, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $85,000, followed by $84,500.

Major Resistance Levels – $87,000 and $88,000.

Since mid-week, analysts and investors alike have been bearish on the company's recent performance.

Dividend King ABM Industries (ABM 9.93%) wasn't looking so regal on Thursday. Following two bearish post-earnings analyst moves, investors aggressively sold the stock, resulting in a nearly 10% decline in value.

Fourth-quarter flop
Baird's Andrew Wittmann downgraded his recommendation on ABM. He now feels the industrial services company is a neutral, rather than a buy. He also reduced his price target to $51 per share from $55.

Image source: Getty Images.

Compounding that, his peer Joshua Chan from UBS sliced his fair value assessment, trimming it from $54 per share to $52. However, he maintained his neutral recommendation.

Neither adjustment should have come as a surprise to the market. Wednesday morning, ABM published its fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 results, and they weren't particularly encouraging.

This, despite the company setting a new record for revenue of $2.3 billion, an increase of more than 5% year-over-year. Net income not in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) came in at just under $55 million ($0.88 per share), down slightly from the year-ago quarter.

With those numbers, ABM slightly exceeded the consensus analyst estimate of $2.28 billion. However, it whiffed badly on the bottom line, as those pundits were collectively modeling a non-GAAP (adjusted) net profit of $1.09.

Management also proffered guidance for the entirely of its new fiscal year. It believes its revenue growth will range from 3% to 4% over the 2025 result, and adjusted net income is expected to be between $3.85 and $4.15, representing an improvement over the $3.44 of fiscal 2025.

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Over-reaction
While that gap between expected and actual earnings is wide, I feel investors are punishing ABM unnecessarily. The company remains habitually profitable, and at this stage in its existence, it isn't easy to achieve revenue growth.

On top of that, as a Dividend King (i.e., a company that has declared dividend raises at least once annually for a minimum of 50 years running), its quarterly dividend is always on the rise, to the point where it yields a respectable 2.4%. I'd consider this dip in the share price to be a bargain-buying opportunity, then.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Financial realities could soon pour water on one of this year's hottest IPO stocks.

Throughout history, technological innovations have often coincided with investor enthusiasm that can occasionally reach euphoric levels. Today's craze for artificial intelligence (AI) is likely to create some bubbles within the industry, even if AI as a whole is a genuinely revolutionary technology and investment opportunity.

There are some similarities between today's market and the late 1990s, when the internet helped inflate the dot-com bubble.

One of those is a hot initial public offering (IPO). CoreWeave (CRWV +4.94%) has already skyrocketed more than 70% since going public earlier this year, making it arguably AI's hottest IPO of 2025.

Yet, the red-hot AI stock could be in for a painful 2026. Here is why investors may want to approach CoreWeave cautiously.

Image source: Getty Images.

CoreWeave's explosive growth is impressive at first glance
As promising as AI's potential is, laying the groundwork for global AI adoption has required a monumental level of investment and effort. Companies known as hyperscalers are investing hundreds of billions of dollars into chips and data centers to supply the computing power necessary for training and operating increasingly advanced AI models.

CoreWeave is cashing in on this gold rush. In a nutshell, it is building data centers equipped with graphics processing units (GPUs), then selling their computing capacity to companies like Microsoft and Meta Platforms. Broadly speaking, hyperscalers have maintained that AI demand continues to outpace available data center capacity.

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So CoreWeave represents a way for these companies to increase their computing capacity faster, and without having to own all the hardware themselves. Its business is exploding, and revenue has increased by over 230% since late last year and now stands at $4.3 billion for the past four quarters. The company has a $55.6 billion revenue backlog.

However, the underlying financials are hideous
That's a nice story at the surface level, but there are some serious concerns when you start peeling back the layers. To start, CoreWeave is incinerating cash as it spends on GPUs and other hardware to support its growth. Its free cash flow is minus $8 billion over the past four quarters. In other words, cash losses are almost twice its revenue.

The company is borrowing aggressively to fund its hardware purchases. Long-term debt has surged from virtually nothing to over $18.4 billion since just last summer. CoreWeave seems stuck in a chicken-and-egg situation, where it must grow to eventually turn a profit, but it must spend and borrow to achieve this growth.

That $55.6 billion revenue backlog appears impressive, but the reality is that accommodating it will likely come at a steep cost.

Why the stock seems destined to fall over the coming months
With cash flow nowhere near positive territory, CoreWeave will probably continue to borrow and issue stock to fund its growth efforts. Continuously issuing shares causes share dilution, which hurts a stock's performance over time because revenue and profits are spread more thinly across a broader shareholder base.

Moving to the balance sheet, investors can look to Oracle to see an example of what excessive borrowing can do to a stock's share price. CoreWeave's $18.4 billion debt load is already roughly a third of its enterprise value.

The initial buzz of the AI boom appears to be wearing off, and investors are beginning to examine how companies will generate a decent return on all this spending and borrowing. Unless CoreWeave can quickly demonstrate a path to profitability, the stock risks crumbling under the weight of the company's swelling financial burden. It's a difficult situation for the stock heading into 2026, one that investors might be better off avoiding.

Justin Pope has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Oracle. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

NEW YORK, Dec. 18, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- We are advised by Blue Gold Limited that journalists and other readers should disregard the news release, Nasdaq-Listed Blue Gold Limited (BGL) Announces Updated Analyst Price Target of Up to $22, issued Dec. 18, 2025, over GlobeNewswire.

Harris Associates, the fifth largest shareholder in Warner Bros Discovery , said on Thursday it would be "very open" to a revised offer from Paramount Skydance if the company presents a superior bid and addresses issues with deal terms.

Broadcom disappointed investors with its forecast of decreasing gross profit margin.

Broadcom (AVGO +1.16%) stock is down over 16% over the previous five trading days.

*Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of Dec. 16, 2025. The video was published on Dec. 18, 2025.

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Parkev Tatevosian is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through his link, he will earn some extra money that supports his channel. His opinions remain his own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.

The company is capturing increasing market share from cost-conscious shoppers.

There are a few reasons why folks are discussing Costco (COST 0.59%) stock, which I detail in this video.

*Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of Dec. 16, 2025. The video was published on Dec. 18, 2025.

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Costco Wholesale. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Parkev Tatevosian is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through his link, he will earn some extra money that supports his channel. His opinions remain his own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.

Oil edges lower in early Asian trade amid headwinds. “The broader pressure continues to come from surplus signals and weak spot demand,” Sucden Financial said.

, /PRNewswire/ -- Kodiak Sciences Inc. (Nasdaq: KOD), a precommercial retina focused biotechnology company committed to researching, developing and commercializing transformative therapeutics, today announced the closing of its previously announced underwritten public offering of 8,000,000 shares of its common stock, which includes 1,043,478 shares sold pursuant to the underwriters' exercise in full of their option to purchase additional shares, at a price to the public of $23.00 per share. The gross proceeds to Kodiak Sciences from the offering were approximately $184 million, before deducting the underwriting discounts and commissions and estimated offering expenses payable by Kodiak Sciences.

J.P. Morgan, Jefferies, Evercore ISI and UBS Investment Bank acted as joint book-running managers for the offering.

Dr. Victor Perlroth, M.D., Chairman and CEO of Kodiak commented, "we are pleased to have successfully completed this public offering, which strengthens our financial position as we execute through important Phase 3 topline readouts for all three of our late-stage clinical assets of KSI-101, KSI-501 and tarcocimab. The transaction was thoughtfully structured, reflecting our disciplined approach to capital formation and our continued focus on long-term shareholder value."

The shares described above were offered by Kodiak Sciences pursuant to a shelf registration statement on Form S-3, including a base prospectus, that was previously filed by Kodiak Sciences with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") and that was declared effective by the SEC on June 2, 2023. A final prospectus supplement and accompanying prospectus relating to the offering has been filed with the SEC and is available for free on the SEC's website located at http://www.sec.gov. Copies of the final prospectus supplement and the accompanying prospectus relating to the offering may be obtained from: J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, Attention: Broadridge Financial Solutions, 1155 Long Island Avenue, Edgewood, NY 11717, by email at [email protected] and [email protected]; Jefferies LLC, Attention: Equity Syndicate Prospectus Department, 520 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10022, telephone: (877) 821-7388, or by emailing [email protected]; Evercore Group L.L.C., Attention: Equity Capital Markets, 55 East 52nd Street, 35th Floor, New York, NY 10055, or by telephone at 888-474-0200, or by email at [email protected]; or UBS Securities LLC, Attention: Prospectus Department, UBS Investment Bank, 11 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10010 or by email at [email protected].

This press release shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.

About Kodiak Sciences Inc.
Kodiak Sciences (Nasdaq: KOD) is a precommercial retina focused biotechnology company committed to researching, developing and commercializing transformative therapeutics. We are focused on bringing new science to the design and manufacture of next generation retinal medicines to prevent and treat the leading causes of blindness globally. Our ABC® Platform uses molecular engineering to merge the fields of protein-based and chemistry-based therapies and has been at the core of Kodiak's discovery engine. We are developing a portfolio of three late-stage clinical programs. Tarcocimab and KSI-501 are being explored in two BLA-facing Phase 3 studies in the retinal vascular diseases. KSI-101 is a bispecific protein being explored in two Phase 3 studies in Macular Edema Secondary to Inflammation (MESI).

Kodiak®, Kodiak Sciences®, ABC™, ABC Platform™ and the Kodiak logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of Kodiak Sciences Inc. in various global jurisdictions.

SOURCE Kodiak Sciences Inc.

Toyota Motor said on Friday that it aims to begin selling its U.S.-made Camry sedan, Highlander SUV and Tundra pickup truck in Japan starting next year as it hopes to help improve Japan―U.S. trade relations.

rgbspace/iStock via Getty Images

Listen here or on the go via Apple Podcasts or Spotify

Josh Rosen and Jerry Derevyanny discuss the current state of cannabis investing, focusing on federal regulations, investment strategies, and the challenges of valuation in the cannabis sector. We explore the expected consolidation in the industry and offer insights for retail investors navigating this complex landscape.

01:01 Backgrounds and Roles in Cannabis Investing 07:11 Federal Landscape and Regulatory Changes 19:10 Investment Strategies and Market Dynamics 26:24 First Mover Advantage in Cannabis Industry 29:56 Understanding 280E and Its Impact on Cannabis Quality 32:25 Insights on Glass House (GLASF) 38:29 Valuation Challenges in the Cannabis Industry 45:03 Retail Investor Insights: Navigating the Market 50:20 Public vs. Private: The Future of Cannabis Investments Transcript

Rena Sherbill: Here we are December 18th, 2025, Jerry Derevyanny back on the show, Josh Rosen for the first time much talked about never appeared directly on the cannabis investing podcast. Welcome both of you to the show. Thanks for coming on.

Jerry Derevyanny: Thanks for having me again.

Josh Rosen: Great to be here.

Rena Sherbill: It's great to have you guys. Talk to us. What are you thinking about? Twitter's a buzz and a lot of interest given Trump's executive order that we have yet to read, I guess, but we've seen it being signed. Not much excitement, I think, from this crew on that news, but certainly more interest will be coming to the sector.

Rena Sherbill: Let's start at the very beginning in terms of bringing you both on the show. Josh, I'll start with you, because you haven't been on before. If you want to introduce yourself and say your roles and where you've come from and where you are now and how you and Jerry fit together, that'd be awesome.

Josh Rosen: Yeah, certainly. So I go current to backward. Right now I like Jerry, managing partner at Bengal Capital. Unlike Jerry, I also have an operating role with one of our portfolio companies, is Grown Rogue, where I'm chief strategy officer.

Spent my time going back on the investing side, actually my formative years, where I was an equity analyst primarily at the investment bank Credit Suisse, covered the business services sector there, kind of mid 90s through the mid 2000s, transitioned into the money management world, had a small alternative asset manager, and then ultimately came to work for a family office, moved from Chicago in 2009 to Scottsdale, Arizona, where I reside now worked for the family office of John Sperling, who was the founder of the University of Phoenix.

And that was really the catalyst for me to enter the cannabis scene as he was also one of the principal drug reform philanthropists. He was an instrumental funder of the 1996 medical marijuana shoot in California, for instance, so going way back.

So it was a topic that I knew he cared about. That was my introduction was medical marijuana was on the ballot in Arizona in 2010, began to take a look at the business side of things then with Chris Crane, formed Forefront Advisors in early 2011, ultimately transitioned from being a passive capital allocator investor in the space to active when we acquired Forefront from the family office in late 2013 into 2014. And that's gonna dovetail into when I met Mr. Jerry Dereviani.

While at 4Front (FFNTF), we ended up pivoting what was an advisory business model over to being, I guess, the precursor to what became the MSOs. In 2018, I believe it was when I first met Jerry, we were looking at partnering with strong production cultivator operators and was introduced to Northwest Cannabis Solutions and the PubCo version of that being Cannex. And Jerry was...Jerry, what was your formal title at that point?

Jerry Derevyanny: Corporate development.

Josh Rosen: Because I know as much as you are an attorney, you always want to make sure you shy away from being a general counsel. And so I met Jerry in 2018. We merged Forefront and CanX in 2019. And I stepped back from that. was CEO. I stepped back from that in March of 2020, just as COVID was beginning to ramp up.

Joined the Bengal Capital formally in 2021. And we started, we looked at a handful of deals with Bengal Capital prior to joining. Started a very friends and family based equity fund in mid 2021. I think June was our formation of the fund, Jerry, if I'm remembering correctly. Great time to become a public equity cannabis investor in June of 2021.

I don't think we quite called the peak. I think it peaked a little bit before we started, but not much. And I think we can get into the specifics, but through that I've also, the other role that I've played real actively in the industry more recently, I was on the board at Vireo (VREOF), or what was Goodness Growth when I joined the board and subsequently was part of the process of originally selling to Verano (VRNO).

That transaction didn't happen and then was asked to step in as interim president, interim CEO at Vireo, which I did for better part of two years, before coming back to Bengal. So covered a lot of ground there, but still, I mean, think the overarching theme for me is I've always been a bottoms up fundamental equity analyst at core. Like I still suffer that affliction. That has kind of been a blessing and a curse throughout the history of cannabis investing.

Rena Sherbill: A lot of ground, but pertinent ground to cover, I think, very relevant to your journey and where we're at right now. Jerry, have I been mispronouncing it the whole time? Is it Yanni? Is it Derevyani? I feel like I've always been saying Derevyani.

Jerry Derevyanny: I mean, you're pretty close. That's pretty close. That's probably a little bit more accurate to the Russian pronunciation, so, yeah.

Josh Rosen: At Bengal, we just go casual and try to take him back to his roots in Kalanyaro.

Jerry Derevyanny: That's my Russian given name. Yaroslav.

Rena Sherbill: Oh, I love that. Every conversation is something new. I love that. Edifying. Long-term partnership. Jerry, talk to us. You've been on before. I think our audience knows you. But briefly update us on what you're doing and what you do.

Jerry Derevyanny: Sure. Yeah, so partners with Josh at Bengal Capital and we're, you we manage the fund. We, I'm not in an operational role, but you sometimes I definitely try to, try to help out where I can in terms of just little things with the companies that we, that we invest in. I think we're in the MSO skeptic camp generally. And I think that's been kind of the through line with us for years.

And so that's why we kind of focus on the smaller, the more undiscovered of the undiscovered. And right now lot of that has been focusing on grown rogue and focusing on how we can help grown rogue, opportunities for grown rogue and stuff like that. But we're always kind of keeping an eye out on the market and trying to figure out what is going on in this wild and crazy world of cannabis.

Rena Sherbill: would you say for those wanting your takes on the federal picture and what it does and what it doesn't do, the rescheduling and what it may or may not portend and on a scale of one to 10, how much you care on a scale of one to 10, how much the average retail investor should care? Would love to hear your thoughts.

Josh Rosen: The 10,000 foot view, I'll offer the 10,000 foot view first, which is from the early days of actually being educated on the advocacy side by both the family office I worked for, but really Chris Crane when we formed Forefront back in 2011, Chris had been the executive director for student for sensible drug policy.

And I remember early on him articulating and he actually did a very good job of articulating which states were going to come, how they were, you know, how they were going to pass their initiatives, which states might actually happen legislatively.

And right from the get-go, he was incredibly skeptical of anything happening on the federal level and what that time, timeline looked like. And I actually think he, like many in our camp, gained probably some false sense of optimism as time went on that the federal side would start to move more quickly as he became more in tune with the business side of the industry. And I think we all wanted that to happen more quickly than it's happened. And I think that creates a little bit of self-fulfilling optimism.

But at its core, the federal side is just really hard to move. And I've always anchored on that probably more than others, that things just take a long time on the federal side. And so when we think about, I'll call it the advocacy hat versus the investing hat, the advocacy hat is anything that's migrating us from this march toward better decriminalization, toward a better environment for cannabis legalization, I'm a big fan of.

On the investing side, just have always focused on not treating regulatory as a catalyst outside of some of the state-specific catalysts you can get your arms around and feel better about predicting the outcomes of. And so that's kind of the 10,000-foot view is with the business lens we tend to focus on is, yeah, there might be a nice catalyst that's supportive on the federal side and is conducive. And we obviously have to be cognizant.

For instance, people will speculate about interstate commerce with various forms of legalization. We're pretty cognizant of what business risks are being contemplated, but really focus on building business with respect to the regulatory environment that we're in. And that's kind of the way we operate on the investing side, at least the way I've always operated on the investing side.

Jerry Derevyanny: Yeah, think so. So I think one of the questions is right is, is what should retail, how should retail look at federal and especially what happened today. And for those that are listening to this podcast, like what happened today is that president Trump signed an executive order, which was rumored, where rumors were swirling for the past, at least the last week. more than that, the, and what that executive order does is effectively two things. And the text of it actually was released. and I took it.

I took a look at it. Number one, it tells the attorney general, Bondi, with all speed, all deliberate speed, expeditiously as possible, to proceed with rescheduling and to issue a final rule, et cetera. So some of the rumors that I saw were that Trump was going to reschedule by executive order. Now, President Trump has certainly made other executive orders that have then been overturned as going too far in court, but

The law from experts like Shane Pennington and stuff, the law seemed pretty clear that you cannot reschedule something by executive order. the process is ongoing. So the realistic expectation there should have been that it was going to be some kind of pushing the process along.

The other thing that it does is that it directs the, you know, certain members of the executive to work with Congress to draft a proposed statutory definition of Hemp that would allow CBD products and there are some specifics around that that I don't know if they're terribly relevant to this part of the conversation. But the point is that, okay, well, as Josh was saying, the lens that we take is, okay, well, what difference does it make in the business? Right? Well, let's look at the big companies. Almost every single big company out there right now already acts as if 280E doesn't apply. Right? They're already taking these positions that they're not paying these taxes. Right? So does it actually increase cash flows?

No, not really. Normally, like in the old days, if 280 went away, EBITDA would stay the same, but cash flows would increase. But in this case, EBITDA stays the same and cash flows stay the same too, for all except GTI (GTBIF).

And so, you know, many people kind of accuse specifically me of being a little bit of a Debbie Downer, but I think a lot of what I'm seeing in retail, if Twitter's any indication, is people drawing these conclusions and thinking that a lot changes and then being really surprised when other people disagree with them, when not a lot is actually changing in the business, right?

So 280E is not going away, not yet. Like, yes, clearly they're on some path to schedule three. We learned something very useful today, which is that Trump is not interested in schedule two, which was a rumor that was out there. And apparently, Dr. Oz, who's in the administration was arguing for schedule two. That's positive. But, you know, people are acting as if they're pulling forward what's going to happen in the future with like certainty. And that's just not the case. And I think especially retail investors need to be really, really careful doing that, because or else, you know, they're going to think that it's so obvious as it seemed like a lot of people on Twitter seem to think that, my goodness.

And then when they see the price action today, which is to drop the price below the price that the (MSOS) was at when the initial rumor that Trump was just going to potentially sign an order on Monday was, right? They're kind of surprised. And so I think that's kind of the danger of the sector. You really can get burned playing the trade that kind of everybody agrees is the good trade. You really can get burned playing that.

Josh Rosen: Can I jump in real quick, Rena? Just one little context here I think is interesting is investing versus trading. Because I think there's a dynamic here that is in play, which we, and I referenced kind of the affliction of being a fundamental equity analyst at core. We're focused on business building value creation.

I do think there's a large part of this that is the speculative positive regulatory, positive stock, positive environment. And that trade dynamic is one that I think the retail investors often can get caught up on the wrong side of with respect to, you we're focused on the fundamentals. Jerry very rightfully is skeptical about the impact on the fundamentals of the business. It doesn't mean that these trades don't work at times and or people aren't going to make or lose money because of how the speculation side of this industry works.

And what is the lack of liquidity in a lot of the smaller, maybe fundamentally better companies in the space. And so, from our vantage point, to tell is always if news happens and it's good for the fundamentals, you might not see it the day that it happens.

If news happens and Tilray (TLRY) is the stock that moves the most, or Canopy Growth (CGC) is the stock that moves the most and it's US regulatory oriented, you can get a pretty good feel that what you're seeing is some type of whether institutional retail, whatever it is, it's very trading dynamic oriented. It's not truly investing oriented. And it's folks either trying to get in front.

So when you see a sell off like today, it's like, okay, well people ran out in front of us and they're not, what was it that they were looking for? Because what came down, it was right down the middle of the plate as far as I could tell from an EO standpoint. mean, it could have been better. You could have had safe, like people were talking about safer or other elements coming kind of coming into this executive order, but I'm not convinced that even if that were in this that you'd have seen any less of a sell-off.

Jerry Derevyanny: I think I was actually surprised to learn, I went back and double checked that I didn't follow this too closely because people think that by following it closely, actually, they know more, but they just don't. They're just getting yanked around by their nose every single day and then you can just ignore the news for a week and come back and be pretty much as well informed as anybody else.

It was interesting to see that CNBC reported that one source said that banking would likely be addressed in the EO. I'm very interested in the sourcing on this. I don't want to be tinfoil hatty about it, but I have a theory that the cannabis industry in their push for the EO did make the push for safe, that there was some, you know, like, okay, yeah, we'll consider it. And then there was considerate pushback from the SAMs of the world, Smart approaches to marijuana is kind of a neo-prohibitionist organization under Kevin Sabbath the and recall that there was pretty good sourcing on the fact that the speaker of the house was not a fan of rescheduling any the way the executive order would have been written is that he can't direct congress to do something but he can't you know he can't officially but he can say hey congress i want the president wants this law I direct you to please pass this law.

Well, can you imagine if Mike Johnson is not a big fan of rescheduling, I imagine he would have said, let's not try to put political pressure on me to pass safer. You don't need it. Let's yank it out of this one. It's a bridge too far. And so that's not to say it's never going to happen, but I do suspect that people forget that there are puts and takes and I also think that people forget that what they were so certain of a month ago, that didn't happen.

And now they are so certain that the next thing is gonna happen. they just, like people have, it's like memento. They have like investment amnesia from what they thought just like two days ago.

Rena Sherbill: Well, yeah, I mean, and that's how social media works. That's how Twitter works. That's how this game has been played since you guys got together, you know, at least 2019, probably before that. That's what's been going on these past few years, right? This is like the narrative and the reaction and the reaction to the reaction.

Jerry Derevyanny: There's this really useful concept when investing and just generally called the Keynesian beauty contest, which is I think named after the famous economist, John Keynes, where it's the kind of game where it's not about trying to guess what the best is, you know, trying to figure out what the best is of something. It's trying to figure out what everyone else thinks is the best.

So it's like if it's guessing what other people's opinions are rather than what the actual truth of the matter is. And right now, I always think about this with respect to cannabis investing because it just seems like a lot of people are, I mean, they'll tell you privately, you know, tiller is crap, what are you talking about?

But everyone else thinks it's good. And so that's what I'm gonna trade. And sure, the trade could work, but that is also, but that's not really investing and that's not really what we do. So, you know, we'll miss the gravy train on that.

Rena Sherbill: So what are you guys doing? What are you focused on? What companies would you bring to the front of the line or what kinds of metrics are you looking at these days?

Josh Rosen: With the chief strategy officer role at Grown Rogue (GRUSF), I'm pretty outspoken on this, albeit with a really small platform. I view best in class cultivation as the engine of the industry throughout the supply chain. And it's one of the reasons that we decided to lean in so much with Grown Rogue because we're a very capable cultivation team. We're referring to ourselves as flower forward. And I think that dynamic flows through.

And so what we're spending a decent amount of time with, and I'm going to kind of bring it back to the investing side, because I think it dovetails into what's going on, probably on the private side as much as the public side, are the companies that are customer centric.

This goes for retail as well. The customers that are truly customer centric, and while they're focused on their bottom line, they're not focused on this quarter's bottom line. They're focused on the next three to five years bottom line.

And I think the environment, you know, fortunately or unfortunately, and I don't begrudge, I'll call it the standard MSO that is kind of heavily benefiting from being vertically integrated in a market right now, from trying to continue to push product through their own distribution path because it's the greatest source of profits and they are sitting with a pretty healthy debt load. They're sitting with a potentially the tax liability as Jerry was referencing. You know, that.

That is a very fairly pervasive practice these days. And controlling more shelf space, you're seeing a lot of folks kind of augment and try to expand their retail networks this way. And so what that causes us long term oriented investors to do is just look back and think, okay, long term in this space, customer centric, providing value and quality to customers wins. And where are those opportunities to invest with management teams, invest in operations that provide quality and value consistently?

And we tend to anchor, and I think this goes back to even the history of Forefront, the good and the bad. The good being we very quickly migrated. The reason that Jerry and I know each other was my preference to go and find operational best in class operators in battle tested arenas, the state of Washington being a battle tested arena at that point on particularly relative metric and applying those talents elsewhere.

And in many ways, I'm still stuck on that same blueprint with Grown Row, best in class operator and trying to take that in a very prudent fashion and scale it. And I think the public markets, know, fortunately or unfortunately, but for retail investors, unfortunately, don't offer a lot of alternatives in cannabis right now that map to this.

There are some good operators that are out there. I think they're a little bit beholden to their cap structures. And it's what makes me so excited about what we can do at Grown Rogue over the next three to five years that there aren't a lot of others like us that can stay prudent with balance sheet risk while just stamping out what I think will be some really compelling returns on capital over the coming years with flexibility.

I think the last thing I'll say, and I think this ties into the hopes and dreams attached to regulatory reform is if we had enough regulatory reform where capital flows were materially back into the space, they do tend to flow to the big companies first. And if the big companies could de-lever their balance sheets with a meaningful amount of equity at some point in the next 18, 24 months or six to 12 months, more acutely for some of them.

It does start to change the landscape. do think that there is some competitive advantage to access to capital and to leaning into those balance sheets and the cash that they generate today. Albeit, we don't see them as best in class operators in very many of the markets we operate in.

Rena Sherbill: What would you say to your point about forefront and still concentrating on essentially the same things, but obviously, you know, learning some lessons, what would you say have been the most lasting lessons and what you're really taking with you?

Josh Rosen: Jerry, you left shortly after I did. You're 2020 as well, right? Yeah. I mean, I think 4Front is similar in some ways to some of the other insolvent companies in the space at this point in that they over levered with sale, backs, and debt. I actually think they're dissimilar from some of the companies in the space in that still kind of knowing the operate the operating side of the business.

They've continued to run relatively tight operations in Massachusetts and in Illinois from a profitability standpoint. I mean, almost everyone's profitable in Illinois to a degree. So that's not all that remarkable, but Massachusetts is a market that got particularly competitive. and 4Front operations held up reasonable, know, really well on relative basis in Massachusetts until, they lost their, their complete mojo from a balance sheet standpoint.

So I think that, that kind of the, one of the lessons was the operating integrity did matter when the markets got competitive, having better operating capabilities was instrumental and important, but you just, can't make up for poor capital allocation and discipline and 4Front's heavy foray into California and the delays they experienced in building out a really massive facility in Illinois on the balance sheet side just really doomed them.

I don't think that capital allocation balance sheet side of the equation in an industry where equity capital has only been available in small windows to many of the companies is just a recipe for doom for a number.

And we're seeing a lot of insolvencies the last 18, 24 months, our 4Front being but one of them. And then, yeah, there are personal lessons that are wrapped into these things all the time from a leadership governance standpoint. And so it was definitely a learning experience on the personal side in terms of stepping back, how aggressive to be, how passive to be at various times, window-lean into things. I took a lot of good lessons. We refer to it as scar tissue frequently. Kind of lean into that scar tissue. And it was really instrumental in, think, helping save and preserve value at Vireo. The experience I had at 4Front was in part the blueprint for bringing operational integrity into Vireo's operations.

Rena Sherbill: Would you say, Jerry, I want to hear your thoughts, but would you say, Josh, that there is such thing as first mover advantage in the cannabis space or maybe at all, like in any industry?

Josh Rosen: I could take both sides of this argument. It's a great question. mean, think the simple answer is from a market penetration and access to customer early on.

I do think there are some advantages to being early, particularly to building your footprint. You know, we recently wrote a, our last quarterly update covered our, we refer to as three buckets of profits and it kind of addresses this to a degree.

But I think it's situational. One of the things that I would say with respect to cultivation facilities, a lot of them are overbuilt. A lot of them are unproductive. And I had someone reference the, and I have no personal experience with golf course investing or golf course ownership. But it was basically the concept that the second or third owner of the golf course is the one that actually makes money, not the first owner.

And I'm beginning to think that that might be true of a large number of cultivation facilities that, yeah, there's not much of a first mover advantage outside of pricing's really high when you start, but you get drunk on that pricing. And typically, when you don't come with the of the battle tested approach of what it takes to be an efficient quality producer, you get eaten for lunch as the markets get competitive.

I think that first mover advantage to a degree in a lot of the markets, each of the Mississippi in particular, ultimately has been a big disadvantage to the players as opposed to an advantage, even though they got to attract capital because they were making a lot of money in the early days.

Jerry Derevyanny: I was talking to somebody a couple months ago and he was relaying that when he was looking at pro forma, know, kind of like projections of what operations were going to do a couple of years back that in, you know, in states, especially East coast, they just didn't project out prices falling to below like $2,000 a pound at wholesale. She didn't think it was going to happen. Even though they would always kind of like hand wave and say, well,

Washington's different, it's really competitive. Oregon's different, it's really competitive. California's different, it's really competitive. And, you know, yeah, of course, they're less, more competitive, less competitive states. But I think there really was this underlying idea that it can't happen here in any kind of meaningful timeframe. And the equity is going to work, so we'll be able to refine it and all these things. And I think ultimately, you know, we try to think about what does not change.

Right? And for me, what's been, I'm not a huge smoker, but what's been interesting for me to learn is that it seems like cannabis shares certain characteristics with alcohol.

And one of those things is that there is a subset of people that, and there are a good number of them, that will pay for quality. That will pay, you know, they enjoy the quality enough and they like that, that they will pay a very decent price for it.

A price that allows a business to make a very nice return on capital by giving those customers a lot of value. Like, they could not grow themselves, right? And it's high quality and everybody wins. And that's kind of the thing that I go back to is that, you know, and retail too, obviously, like I personally know some retail operators that are incredibly customer focused and really good at what they do. And this is kind of a version of same story.

And so that's what I think we try to focus on is just going back to just blocking, tackling basics of, okay, 280E, not 280E. 280E going away does not make bad weed, good weed. It does not make suddenly the customer go, 280E is going away, okay, I guess I'll buy this shwag for some ridiculous price. Like it doesn't do that, right?

So to me, that's kind of where I think we part ways from a lot of these kind from a lot of the other people that look at the space.

Rena Sherbill: What do you guys each think of Glass House (GLASF)?

Josh Rosen: I mean, I've always had from very early on from some of the industry network diligence, a great deal of respect for Graham. And, you know, we like great operators and I had heard that he was a good team builder and that he had folks that were real loyal to how he executed and that side of the equation. So I've always been impressed.

On the face of it with what they were potentially capable of accomplishing. But I think from a just within the facilities they're in, what they've accomplished from a cultivation standpoint is really remarkable. From an investing standpoint, and Jerry's heard me preach this before, I've always struggled with both the concept of interstate commerce and when you make that bet, as well as what an individual operation is capable of from either a brand standpoint or kind of where growth gets capped.

So how do you actually take advantage of what I still think is a growth environment in the industry, the blue sky of the industry, which ultimately should manifest in brands and typical, more typical CPG and or even the commodities on the industry in leaning into your capabilities, but being able to grow around them.

And so I've always felt two things with GlassHouse that prevented us from, at least prevented me from wanting to be an investor. One was it felt like there was always this risk that they would get clipped not for what they got clipped for, but for interstate commerce access. And even if you've got a really, really tiny risk that's existential, existential risks are pretty unusual for publicly traded companies. And it just kept me on the sidelines of, okay, I think that this probably works, but not a place that I'm comfortable from risk management standpoint.

And then the other side was just being kind of tapped within a single facility, large facility, but single facility and how much market they could penetrate, et cetera. And to their credit, they've done better than I would have ever expected with respect to that.

Given the appreciation we have for operating chops, it's a pretty impressive story along those lines. But kind of where they go and how they get there, I've always, I've always struggled with what the ultimate upside is in that in that business, knowing that there are other great outdoor cultivators in California.

There are other solid greenhouse operators in California. They're not alone. And that's one of the kind of one of the underlying dynamics in play. There are great greenhouse operations in Canada, obviously not with the same climate, but there are some in Arizona that are in fantastic climates for greenhouses. And so where the competitive advantage really lives and how it gets exercised, I've always been kind of held us back, at least held me back from being an investor.

Jerry Derevyanny: Aaron Edelheit, who we are friends with and also an investor in Grown Rogue is a big fan of Glass House. So there are smart people, that are, that are invested in Glass House that take the other side from us. Should just be clear about that.

I kind of dovetail a lot with what Josh said, obviously, like it was a decision that we made not to invest in Glass House. A lot of it was valuation based because, know, the kind of broadly speaking, right, it's a, it's a very nice greenhouse and, the channel checks came back that Graham really knows what he's doing, runs a good facility, but it's still, you know, it's, it's, it's greenhouse. It's not indoor. It's not quite the same quality. It's not perfect. And, you know, Santa Barbara is a great climate to grow cannabis in, but it is not the only perfect place, the only great place to grow cannabis in the United States.

Like Josh said, there are places in Arizona that have a really nice climate and actually are not that hot. There are places in Texas that are relatively high altitude and get plenty of sunlight, but are, again, don't get hot and potentially have better water access over the long term than California does in addition to lower power costs.

One of the underlying risks with Glass House is a lot of the upside of Glass House people talk about in interstate commerce scenario. Number one, we have no idea when that is coming. My personal guess is that the day you get federal legalization, it will be a minimum of two years before you see actual interstate commerce in any material amount as states figure out how they're gonna interact.

and how shipments are gonna work, how they're gonna harmonize regulations, stuff like that. A, B, people just assume that like this stuff sells itself. It does not. They need to get on the shelf. They need to get relationships on the shelf with retailers that are across the country. Like that is a process that takes much more time. We've learned this with Grown Rogue even great quality, it takes a while to sell it.

And it takes a while for people to understand it and for buyers to know it. There's a process. So people just kind of assume that the day federal legalization hits, they're like 80% EBITDA margins because they're selling across the country. just not realistic.

The other thing that I think people are missing is I think it's kind of an open secret and I don't blame Glass House for this because it's not their fault. They should not have to diligence all of their customers other than the fact that their customers are properly licensed and they can find them online or whatever database California maintains.

But I think it's kind of an open secret. Even the CEO has found his own product properly labeled in New York in illicit shops in New York. So some portion of what they are putting out is already going out to interstate commerce. And so you're already seeing the benefit of the, like the financial benefit of that interstate commerce at higher prices. You're already seeing that to some extent in their financial results.

So people that are expecting this like huge boost, I don't know if that's realistic either. And then fundamentally, they have this great greenhouse and everything. How much would it cost? Like the technology is getting better. We're understanding how to build these things better. It isn't the only place in the world where you can put a cannabis greenhouse.

If they spent a billion dollars on that greenhouse and they have a decent size cost advantage, you're telling me that to be the cost leader in a $50 billion industry, I can spend $1 billion. That's not a huge, that's not a huge moat, right? In the grand scheme of things in the future, it's just not.

And then they didn't even spend a billion dollars. And so it's, and then you get to like relative value of, think I've used the example before of, of village farms where you go, okay, village farms, they maintain not as big a greenhouse as, as glass house, but they do pretty well out of their greenhouse in Canada. And they sell branded product mostly rather than B2B.

Right in the Canadian market and they've gotten some traction there. have international and when interstate commerce comes, could conceivably, you know, they have access to greenhouses in Texas and they could conceivably start to take their playbook from Canada and input it here.

I'm not saying that they're going to win. I'm not saying this, but if you look at the difference in value and I haven't checked recently, but we're talking like glass houses is multiples worth multiples of what Village Farms (VFF) is worth.

And when you kind of put a two and two together, go, okay, well, I mean, Glass House, you can trade it on Robinhood, so there's something that's working out for you. But, those are my collection of broad reasons why we're not, why the valuation is kind of the main stopping point for me.

Rena Sherbill: I appreciate that. I wanted to ask about valuation and then I wanted to spend like a few minutes asking you maybe like some quick hit topics if you guys would give like a minute on each.

But I think valuation is a worthy topic and maybe timelines and valuations and what you both are looking at when it comes to the valuation conversation and any other context you feel like is useful for investors.

Josh Rosen: I'll start just so I would when I was at Credit Suisse and then when I transitioned away from Credit Suisse into the into the money management industry, would one of my mentors I worked for at a small little boutique money management shop called Crystal Rock in Metro Chicago. And Jay Friedman is said mentor and is just frankly one of the valuation gurus in the country in that world. And

So I've spent a lot of time on this kind of cashflow analysis and reverse engineering, kind of the embedded expectations within publicly traded companies in terms of what the growth expectations, the capital efficiency of the business is. And my holistic view on the industry, and I think this is one of the challenges and one of the places, we've got a number of places we struggle with the MSO business models from a pubco standpoint.

But one of the core ones is just trying to figure out what the long-term growth rate of any of these businesses is, what a real growth trajectory that looks out three, four, five, six years actually looks like.

And it's particularly challenging because these companies have like a map with eight or 10 states and each state is operating at a different wavelength with respect to its growth curve and or its negative growth curve, how profitable it is, what its profit margins are.

And then there's some exciting growth markets that people think will great that now I've got growth because Virginia, Minnesota, and these states are coming online. So now I'm a growth vehicle again, because these states are activating and they will get growth.

But when you look at what really goes into kind of an underlying discounted cashflow analysis, a lot of it is the value in perpetuity. A lot of it is the value of your sustainable growth. And the industry through that lens is really challenging.

It's almost a disservice to being a publicly traded company that you're gonna be maximum profitable in year three or year four of a state because your pricing is still reasonably high and you've got more critical mass, then you will be in year eight, nine, 10 when pricing's normalized and you're fighting that with everyone else and you still might have a very good business, but you've shrunk profits during that time period, which is really hard to do as a pump go.

And so that dynamic is, that mixed dynamic is happening inside every one of these MSOs. It's one of the reasons when we even with Grown Rogue, when we underwrite our move to Minnesota, I kind of come back to, okay, yeah, we're gonna look better than normal for the first couple of years.

Let's make sure we articulate that we're looking better than normal these first couple of years. You shouldn't pay eight times EBITDA for a business that's at peak EBITDA. And that dynamic and EBITDA is a shorthand quick and dirty way to get to what's kind of an estimated version of a discounted cashflow analysis. It's very, very crude.

We can get into the kind of the esoteric sides of that, but even just using that crude version, I think these arguments that CPG companies might trade at 12 to 18 times EBITDA, therefore cannabis companies should trade at 12 to 18 times EBITDA.

I just chuckle at those because these businesses look nothing like a mature CPG company that's growing at 5 to 8 % annually or 3 % if it's super mature. Like those dynamics just aren't present in this industry yet in part because you've got these inflated profit streams, these surplus profit streams in states that are still, pricing's too high relative to where it will be in the future.

And I mean, I just think those dynamics make public company investing really hard in the industry and the evaluation particularly challenging because it's a moving target. It's hard to understand all the dynamics to go into that. And if you think about

And I think Jerry articulated this well in one of our mental bites. If you think about what goes into valuation, what goes into this multiple is both that combination of growth, but also the certainty attached to it. Right? Like you'll, pay more for a bond in part because you know, you're getting 5 % every year. So you pay it to get to that. Like I'm getting that 5 % and there's just loads of uncertainty as to what the growth trajectory actually looks like for a lot of these companies.

Jerry Derevyanny: I don't want to add on like too long of an answer, but I would just say this, like when you look at even a company like GTI, you don't have a ton of information, you need to make a lot of guesses to, if I were to tell you, let's say Minnesota comes online, you know, full on, they got a full functioning recreational system, know, one of, GTI is one of the two main licensees in Minnesota with Vireo being the other one.

And let's say next year, Minnesota's fully online, fully ramped up, and they go bonkers over there. But the average retail price per unit in Illinois drops 20%. What does that do to GTI's financials? Can you even hazard a guess? And so as these cross currents are happening, that's a very, very difficult thing.

to figure out and you can kinda try to make some guesses but they certainly don't make it easy for you most of these companies and unfortunately i think people have been doing this kind of like common math of a these trade twelve times even though he's trying to twenty five times even though so you know now they trade force another cheap maybe they're not case

Rena Sherbill: I'm going to ask you guys a few things, maybe first I'm going to ask you each if you have the most important thing that you feel like retail investors should have in mind these days and in the days coming.

Josh Rosen: From a retail investor standpoint, and Jerry, you may disagree, and I don't spend a lot of Jerry's done more work than I have and with the Canadian companies. But at least you've got a level, a more level playing field in terms of how you analyze the companies north of north of our border. I think US cannabis on the publicly traded side is just a very challenging environment to do the analysis and to feel to feel conviction around.

I think the Canadian companies offer a better version of kind of at least an ability to roll up your sleeves and do the analytic work and feel good about the analytic work you're doing and make your bets. I think the US side is still unfortunately, there's some interesting companies and some interesting opportunities that exist because of how this market's playing out. But I think it's hard to get.

Until you have maturity in a market and real consumer choice, it's really hard to understand what brands are real, what's really resonating at a kind of a national level, the types of things that go into what would be durable value. And my instinct is that Canada probably offers better opportunities than the U S for that.

Jerry Derevyanny: Yeah, I would just say don't play with fire unless you're really controlling the risk. People should just be honest that if they're trading around this political stuff, this is just trading, it's not really investing, they're playing with fire. And so if it's money you can afford to lose, go for it. But just be honest with yourself about what you're doing. If you want to take the lowest effort, of reptile brain way of

doing this, would just take a position in GTI and not look at it for 10 years. And if you don't want to do a ton of research on the space and all that kind of stuff, if you want to really gamble, maybe options on MSOS or IIPR, just some small portion, it's not investing advice, obviously, but just realize that you're gambling. This is like, you can either wager on the Lions game or you can do this. That's my biggest overall feedback to retail investors.

Rena Sherbill: Here are my quick things, just like 30 to 60 seconds each. Josh, you can go first. First thing, hemp.

Josh Rosen: Hemp is a complicated topic. While at Vireo, we started a hemp beverage line. I spent a decent amount of time. actually think it's a shame because I think the hemp THC product on the beverage side is a really compelling product from a market development standpoint and would be ultimately provide a lot of harm reduction solutions as well.

That said, I think if THCA flower goes away as it looks like it might, that is net good from an investing standpoint, particularly for the companies exposed to Florida. I think Trulia is probably the biggest single beneficiary, maybe, yeah, in large part because I think THCA flowers has been a pretty pervasive influence in the smoke shops and gas stations there, particularly in the Southeast, broadly, Texas, we don't really have, we have a couple of operators in Texas, it's not any real scale for the business yet.

So I don't think the fact that there's so much THC flower there has much impact. Maybe it impacts Oklahoma sales. And so really, yeah, I've got a of thoughts around hemp broadly. But from an investing standpoint, I do think that it should provide a tailwind to Florida in particular over the next 18, 24 months.

Jerry Derevyanny: Yeah, I think it's really interesting. think it is the kind of a nice boost to truly even in some of these states where you know, I think Ohio to some extent to some of these states where you've had significant encroachment from hemp maybe even Arizona a tiny bit I'm interested to see what politically is gonna happen. I think you know these a Lot of people are using the hemp thing as air cover for basically black market activity I think that

It's just tough. What a lot of those people are arguing for is effectively federal legalization. I think that's just almost impossible to get done in a year. One thing, and I just don't think there's political will to do it.

One thing that is interesting and the executive order kind of goes to this is, you know, this whole CBD, we'll see if they give a little bit of leeway there, but the drinks, low dose drinks, I think, are going to be somewhere where you could potentially see some kind of political like you could get enough momentum there that you could get low dose drinks that are treated as alcoholic beverages and basically available anywhere, know, if a state allows anywhere that alcohol is sold.

And I think that probably be a good for society and that would be a good for the hemp beverage companies and be good for alcohol distributors and retailers as well.

Rena Sherbill: ETFs. Jerry, you can take that one first - you just said about options on MSOS but any any further thoughts on ETFs in general?

Jerry Derevyanny: I think first of all, I think there's a lot of like conspiracy theories about what how these work and the swaps and all this stuff. I mean, for me, you know, I don't want to dog on. It's very difficult to put together an ETF portfolio for me. I realizing that I would lose out on some of the beta probably of, of, you know, these stock swings.

I would rather buy just GTI than own the ETF because I think all things considered, other, it's just, it's just an easier, better bet.

Josh Rosen: Not much different. You asked the question earlier, and I took it up to Canada from an analytics standpoint in terms of where you can actually do work in the space.

I don't envy the ETF builders within us cannabis because it's not a great landscape. It's not a target rich environment to build a quality portfolio. And so I think if you have to build a portfolio in us cannabis, you end up with some dogs and.

We actually have this conversation inside Drone Rogue about whether we would want to be a bigger part of any of the ETFs in the space and MSOS in particular, because it's the largest.

And the answer is it's a little scary because you're keeping company while there are some quality companies in there. There are some dogs in there and you're keeping company with a lot of dogs. And, you know, we tend to view ourselves as a small cap growth company agnostic to cannabis. Like we're building a cannabis business, but the blueprint for what we're actually building is just a small cap growth business.

I don't think that's the lens that very many of the companies in MSOS share.

Rena Sherbill: What would you say are your biggest agreements and your biggest disagreements?

Jerry Derevyanny: I've always told Josh that he should start using Rogaine and I think that's probably the... I joke. What are our biggest disagreements? I think our biggest disagreement is it fair to say Josh that I think the IRS is gonna come after these MSOs with every ferocity that you've ever seen and no one else in the industry seems to think that that's the case.

Josh Rosen: I think that is a place we disagree. think the IRS does come after them and collects, but I don't think they come after them with penalties. And so that's probably the place we get the most hung up. think broadly, we disagree on the margin frequently, but we disagree fundamentally very infrequently.

In part because we talk through in very intellectually honest ways that the places we disagree and why, and we will agree to disagree on the margin, but fundamentally we're pretty aligned with how we view the world and where it's going.

Rena Sherbill: Sounds like a beautiful partnership, gentlemen. Love to hear it. What are your thoughts for 2026? Jerry?

Jerry Derevyanny: Trouble ahead, trouble behind.

Josh Rosen: I think we're gonna see a healthier amount of consolidation than we've seen recently. I think a couple of the haves and have nots within the MSO landscape, I think the haves in the MSO landscape are getting more aggressive.

And so I think we're gonna see them be more aggressive. think there are opportunities that are out there for them to be more aggressive. I don't know if that's good nor bad at the end of the day, but I think we are gonna see a lot of the mergers that couldn't close the last few years, I think we're gonna see a lot of stuff close and be a lot less expensive.

Rena Sherbill: Anything to say to that point about like the public versus private or public and private any any kind of final words?

Josh Rosen: I mean, think the private side, I'm seeing there are some quality players on the private side that I think are also capable of getting more aggressive. And I think the one interesting thread to this federal activity, and I'm kind of a little disappointed the market was off as much as it was because I'd love to see a little bit more of a tailwind on the access to equity side in the industry.

Equity capital is just so hard to come by in the industry and everything gets done with real estate and or debt capital and while debt capital costs for the better credits aren't ridiculously high anymore. You GTI runs pretty good credit.

We had Grown Rogue, we're kind 8 % borrowers. It's still debt and it still changes your behavior with in terms of, know, you risk appetite, how you manage the business. This industry should be significantly more equity financed than it is. And I'm kind of hoping that sometime in 2026 that we might see some access to, you know, institutional capital on the equity side.

And I think that hold back that that view that institutional capital is a play in the space. To me, the real tell will be when new capital comes in, not through MSOS or not through buying publicly traded companies, but actually like writing principal dollars into companies either through a pipe or a or an offering where it's the formation of capital through equity.

That would be really useful in a lot of places in the industry. And it's really challenging.

Rena Sherbill: Jerry, any final thoughts?

Jerry Derevyanny: I think the dearly departed, Charlie Munger said, that I think it's like three ways that, that people blow up and that's, ladies, liquor and leverage. And so I think the common thread to echo Josh about the good private and public, better public operators is just the responsible use of leverage. the debt loads have created kind of this unsustainable thing that ultimately I think outside of the trading and all that stuff that people don't realize that a lot of times some of that equity is going to turn out to be worthless or near worthless and people are going to be really surprised by that in the future.

Rena Sherbill: Appreciate you both. you for this conversation. Josh, thanks for joining us. I hope to do this again at some point soon. How can people get in touch with you, both either individually together? Jerry?

Josh Rosen: Go ahead, Jerry. I don't want people in touch with me.

Jerry Derevyanny: I'm Jerry at BengalCap.com and people can go to our Substack at BengalCapital.substack.com. We're trying to be a pretty open book about what we think and we've got investor letters going back a couple years that people can look at. Frankly, we are always happy to get reason to push back.

Frankly, I've gotten some of the best pushback on Glass House from Aaron and at least one other investor is really, really quite smart generalist. And, you know, I don't agree, but it's always good to have your, you know, have your thinking checked. And so, yeah, if people want to get in touch, go for it.

Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

The Japanese conglomerate said two of its subsidiaries, Sony Music Entertainment (Japan) and Sony Pictures Entertainment, will acquire the stake for $457.2 million.

Heico Corporation (HEI - Free Report) reported $1.21 billion in revenue for the quarter ended October 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 19.3%. EPS of $1.33 for the same period compares to $0.99 a year ago.

The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.15 billion, representing a surprise of +4.99%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +10.83%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $1.20.

While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Street expectations to determine their next move, some key metrics always offer a more accurate picture of a company's financial health.

As these metrics influence top- and bottom-line performance, comparing them to the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated helps investors project a stock's price performance more accurately.

Here is how Heico performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:

Net Sales- Electronic Technologies Group (ETG): $384.78 million versus $362.05 million estimated by four analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +14.4% change.Net Sales- Flight Support Group (FSG): $834.37 million versus $797.43 million estimated by four analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +20.6% change.Net Sales- Intersegment sales: $-9.74 million versus $-13.9 million estimated by three analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a -32.1% change.Operating income- Flight Support Group: $200.97 million versus the three-analyst average estimate of $185.86 million.Operating income- Other, primarily corporate: $-11.57 million compared to the $-14.55 million average estimate based on three analysts.Operating income- Electronic Technologies Group: $89.62 million versus the three-analyst average estimate of $88.98 million.View all Key Company Metrics for Heico here>>>

Shares of Heico have returned -0.2% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.9% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating that it could perform in line with the broader market in the near term.

Refurbishing and commissioning the Lone Tree Plant marks a key milestone ini-80 Gold's phase one growth plan TORONTO, Dec. 18, 2025 /PRNewswire/ - i-80 GOLD CORP. (TSX: IAU) (NYSE American: IAUX) ("i-80 Gold", or the "Company") is pleased to announce the results of an engineering study (the "Study" or the "Engineering Study") for the refurbishment of its Lone Tree Plant ("Lone Tree Plant" or the "Plant") located in Northern Nevada, USA.

A game-changing merger is placing the social media platform on a new fusion-fueled path.

Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT +41.74%) surged on Thursday after the company announced a $6 billion merger with TAE Technologies.

By the close of trading, DJT's stock price was up more than 40%.

Image source: Getty Images.

Trump Media's cash could propel TAE Technologies' scientific advances
The union would combine Trump Media's substantial financial resources with TAE's advanced technology to create one of the world's first publicly traded fusion power companies.

Under the terms of the deal, TMTG will provide up to $300 million in cash to fund TAE's development projects. TAE brings more than 1,600 patents, an experienced scientific team, and respected CEO Michl Binderbauer, who will serve as co-CEO of the combined company along with Trump Media CEO Devin Nunes.

Today's Change

(

41.74

%) $

4.37

Current Price

$

14.84

The potential for limitless energy
The merged enterprise plans to begin construction on the world's first utility-scale fusion plant with a projected 50 Megawatts of electrical power, subject to regulatory approval.

"We're excited to identify our first site and begin deploying this revolutionary technology that we expect to fundamentally transform America's energy supply," Binderbauer said in a press release.

Fusion power has the potential to produce clean, safe, and nearly limitless energy by replicating the atom-merging processes that fuel the Sun. Yet despite decades of scientific studies, the technology remains unproven.

Still, fusion proponents are optimistic that advances will continue to be made in the coming years.

"Fusion power will be the most dramatic energy breakthrough since the onset of commercial nuclear energy in the 1950s -- an innovation that will lower energy prices, boost supply, ensure America's A.I.-supremacy, revive our manufacturing base, and bolster national defense," Nunes said.

Joe Tenebruso has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Completed the acquisition of a 100% interest in the Adelita Copper-Gold-Silver Project in the prolific Sonora-Arizona copper belt.Effective at market opening on or about December 23, 2025, the common shares in the capital of Algo Grande Copper Corp. are expected to commence trading under the symbol "ALGR" on Tier 2 of the TSX Venture Exchange, upon satisfaction of all conditions of the company's reactivation.Strengthened leadership and board, including appointment of Gord Neal, a key executive in the value creation of MAG Silver has joined the board of directors.Project anchored by the high-grade Cerro Grande skarn discovery, which remains open along strike and at depth.Inaugural drilling program underway, targeting depth extensions of high-grade skarn mineralization and refining the Cerro Grande porphyry-skarn system.Fully permitted for exploration, including a 20-year underground mining permit over the Cerro Grande Skarn zone. Modern reprocessing of IP, VTEM and Magnetic data has defined porphyry targets at Mezquital and below the Cerro Grande Skarn, outlining a possible Porphyry-Skarn system.Vancouver, British Columbia--(Newsfile Corp. - December 18, 2025) - Algo Grande Copper Corp. ("Algo Grande"), formerly Kenadyr Metals Corp. (TSXV: ALGR) (OTC: KNDYF), announces the successful acquisition (the "Acquisition") of 100% ownership of the 5,895-hectare Adelita Copper-Gold-Silver Project (the "Project"). Algo Grande acquired an 80% stake in the Project from Infinitum Copper Corp., and the remaining 20% interest from Minaurum Silver Inc. (TSXV: MGG) (OTCQX: MMRGF). The Project is in the Sonora-Arizona Copper Belt, anchored by the high-grade Cu-Au-Ag Cerro Grande skarn discovery, multiple untested skarn targets along a 6 km corridor, and a 4.5 km porphyry anomaly.

To view an enhanced version of this graphic, please visit:
https://images.newsfilecorp.com/files/11660/278651_d8ce447514ae199e_001full.jpg

Enrico Gay, CEO of Algo Grande Copper Corp., commented: "Completing the acquisition of 100% of the Adelita Project and securing our reactivation marks an important milestone for Algo Grande. Over the past months, our team has undertaken a rigorous technical review: reprocessing legacy geophysics, rebuilding the geological model, and integrating new data into a modern exploration framework. With this foundation in place, we are now executing a disciplined, data-driven program designed to delineate the scale of both the high-grade skarn system and the porphyry potential at depth. Supported by strong in-country operational partners, and a growing team we are entering this next phase with confidence and clarity of vision."

Conversion of Subscription Receipts

Algo Grande confirms, further to news releases dated August 18, 2025, September 15, 2025, September 26, 2025, and December 15, 2025, that the escrow release conditions for the conversion of 10,198,402 subscription receipts of Algo Grande (the "Subscription Receipts") offered at a price of $0.375 per Subscription Receipt, have been fulfilled. Each Subscription Receipt has converted into one common share of Algo Grande (each a "Share") in accordance with its terms. The proceeds of the Subscription Receipt financing (the "Financing") were being held in escrow pending satisfaction of the escrow release conditions. The proceeds have now been released from escrow and will be used to fund payment obligations and exploration expenditures relating to the Project and for general working capital purposes.

Acquisition of the Project

Algo Grande completed the Acquisition pursuant to the terms and conditions of (a) a share purchase agreement dated June 13, 2025 (the "Infinitum Agreement") with Infinitum Copper Corp. ("Infinitum), pursuant to which Algo Grande acquired 100% of Exploraciones Margarita S.A. de C.V. ("EM"), a private Mexican company holding an 80% interest in the Project, and (b) an asset purchase agreement dated August 12, 2025 (the "Minaurum Agreement") with Minaurum Silver Inc. and Minera Minaurum Gold, S.A. de C.V. ("Minaurum"), a private Mexican company, pursuant to which Algo Grande acquired the remaining 20% interest in the Project from Minaurum.

Under the terms of the Infinitum Agreement, Algo Grande acquired EM in exchange for:

$100,000 in cash; and1,842,719 Shares, which are subject to voluntary resale restrictions with releases occurring over a period of 18 months.Infinitum will also receive a post-closing payment of an additional 901,600 Shares in connection with the completion of the Financing.

Under the terms of the Minaurum Agreement, Algo Grande acquired the remaining 20% interest in the Project in exchange for:

313,953 Shares; anda 1% net smelter return royalty from the sale of any ores, minerals, mineral substances, metals, or concentrates derived from the Property. All securities issued pursuant to the Acquisition are subject to a statutory hold period of four (4) months plus one (1) day from the date of issuance, in accordance with applicable securities legislation.

Reactivation on the TSX Venture Exchange

The completion of the Acquisition was one of the conditions required by the TSX Venture Exchange (the "TSXV") for Algo Grande's reactivation from the NEX Board of the TSXV onto Tier 2 of the TSXV (the "Reactivation"). Algo Grande expects to receive final approval of the Reactivation upon completion of the remaining filings with the TSXV. The Shares are expected to commence trading on the TSXV on or about December 23, 2025 under the symbol "ALGR" and Algo Grande's classification will change from NEX to Tier 2.

Board and Management Changes

In connection with the Reactivation, Algo Grande wishes to announce changes to its executive leadership team and board of directors (the "Board"). As previously announced, Enrico Gay has been named the Chief Executive Officer of Algo Grande. Additionally, Algo Grande welcomes the appointment of Gord Neal to the Board effective on closing of the Acquisition. Mr. Neal has more than 30 years of management experience in the metals and mining sector, beginning his career as VP of Corporate Development at MAG Silver Corp. and has raised over $750M for various resource companies.

About The Adelita Project

The Adelita Project is anchored by the Cerro Grande Skarn discovery, a high-grade copper-gold-silver system that remains open along strike and to depth. The project benefits from more than US$8 million in historical exploration, including ~7,000 metres of drilling, license-wide VTEM, IP, and magnetic surveys, surface sampling, and detailed geological mapping. Recent reprocessing of these legacy datasets, combined with new modelling, indicates that the skarn system likely continues down-dip beyond 350 metres and extends around a structural fold toward the northwest, outlining a potential 1.2 km mineralized trend from the currently defined 300 m corridor.

Importantly, multiple technical indicators-including potassic feldspar veining, feldspar-porphyry dikes, a high-resistivity magnetic core beneath the skarn, and zoned geochemistry suggest the presence of a porphyry feeder system at depth beneath Cerro Grande. This aligns with classic porphyry-skarn architectures found across northwestern Mexico, including at nearby Piedras Verdes and Alamo Dorado.

To advance this potential, Algo Grande is executing a triangulated Phase 1 program that integrates:

Oriented-core drilling to define structural controls and geometry;A detailed ground magnetic survey to map magnetite-rich horizons and intrusive centers;A 50×50 m soil geochemistry program to refine near-surface targets and identify concealed skarn extensions; andReprocessed 3D geophysical inversions to strengthen porphyry target definition.These datasets will collectively be used to design a Phase 2 drill program planned for Q2 2026, aimed at materially expanding high-grade skarn mineralization along strike and at depth, while also conducting the first deep tests of the interpreted porphyry source. With multi-system potential across a district-scale land package-including skarn, porphyry, and hydrothermal Cu-Zn-Au targets-Adelita represents a rare, underexplored opportunity in the prolific Arizona-Sonora copper belt.

Figure 1. Schematic Block Model of the Skarn-Porphyry Systems.

To view an enhanced version of this graphic, please visit:
https://images.newsfilecorp.com/files/11660/278651_d8ce447514ae199e_002full.jpg

As a result of completion of the Acquisition, Algo Grande is now in the process of making the necessary filings with the Mexico Public Registry of Mines to update the registrations for all of the concessions located on the Project (the "Concessions"), which are currently under the name of Minaurum, or in the case of two of the Concessions are registered in the name of a third party. There are no limitations on Algo Grande accessing or doing work on the Concessions pending the updates to the registrations, and other than the payment of standard mining duties, Algo Grande does not anticipate any issues with updating the registrations.

Qualified Person and NI 43-101 Disclosure

The scientific and technical information contained in this news release has been reviewed and approved by Mr. Lorne Warner, an independent, Qualified Person for Algo Grande as defined in NI 43-101, and the author of the Technical Report.

Investor Relations Agreements

Algo Grande has entered into consulting agreements with the following entities which will become effective upon completion of the Reactivation.

Euroswiss

Algo Grande has entered into a consulting services agreement (the "Euroswiss Agreement") with Euroswiss, a Switzerland based company. Euroswiss specializes in the fields of business development, financial consulting, and Internet strategy on the European markets.

The Euroswiss Agreement has an initial term of 12 months, with the option for Algo Grande to renew and extend if both parties agree to. Pursuant to the Euroswiss Agreement, Euroswiss has agreed to provide consulting services to Algo Grande, and Algo Grande will pay Euroswiss an total engagement fee of $90,000. The Euroswiss Agreement is subject to approval from the TSXV.

Euroswiss will provide advice, consultation, information, and services to Algo Grande regarding general business development, financial consulting, and Internet strategy, with a focus on increasing Algo Grande's recognition in the European markets.

Euroswiss and Algo Grande are not related parties and operate at arm's length. Neither Euroswiss nor its principals have any interest in Algo Grande's securities, directly or indirectly, or any right or intent to acquire such an interest.

GoldInvest

Algo Grande has entered into a Sponsorship Agreement with GoldInvest (the "GoldInvest Agreement"), a German based company. GoldInvest assists companies in increasing their public awareness and online presence in Germany.

Pursuant to the GoldInvest Agreement, GoldInvest shall provide a sponsorship agreement to publicize Algo Grande throughout its entire publication network, including GOLDINVEST.de, the German portal for precious metals and mining stocks, for increased awareness of Algo Grande in the German speaking financial community. The sponsoring entitles Algo Grande to GoldInvest's expert editorial services, video productions services, European distribution network, and social media channels.

The GoldInvest Agreement has a term of 8 months. Pursuant to the GoldInvest Agreement, Algo Grande shall provide GoldInvest a one-time fee of €28,000 EUR. The GoldInvest Agreement is subject to approval from the TSXV.

GoldInvest and Algo Grande are not related parties and operate at arm's length. Neither GoldInvest nor its principals have any interest in the Algo Grande's securities, directly or indirectly, or any right or intent to acquire such an interest.

Fairfax Partners

Algo Grande has entered into a Services Agreement with Fairfax Partners (the "Fairfax Agreement"), a British Columbia based company. Fairfax specializes in helping companies engage shareholders, improve visibility, and manage their investor communications. Pursuant to the Fairfax Agreement, Fairfax shall provide services to Algo Grande, in the areas of Infrastructure Communications, Investor Relations Management, Digital Marketing, and related services.

The Fairfax Agreement has an initial term of 6 months, following the initial term the Fairfax Agreement shall continue on a month-to-month basis, unless terminated by either party. Pursuant to the Fairfax Agreement, Algo Grande shall pay Fairfax a monthly fee of $5,000, to be paid of the first day of each month, and a budget up to $250,000, to be allocated at the Algo Grande's discretion over 6 months. The Fairfax Agreement is subject to approval from the TSXV.

Fairfax and Algo Grande are not related parties and operate at arm's length. Neither Fairfax nor its principals have any interest in Algo Grande's securities, directly or indirectly, or any right or intent to acquire such an interest.

Option Grants

Effective upon completion of the Acquisiton, Algo Grande granted a total of 2,870,000 stock options ("Options") to certain directors, officers and consultants of Algo Grande under the stock option plan dated February 17, 2022 (the "Plan"). Each Option is exercisable for one Share at an exercise price of $0.375 per Share for a period of two years from the date of grant. 20% of the Options granted will vest immediately and 20% of the Options will vest every six months from the date of grant. All Options are subject to the terms of the Plan, and applicable TSXV hold periods.

A technical report prepared in accordance with National Instrument 43-101 - Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects ("NI 43-101") entitled "NI 43-101 Technical Report on the Adelita Project, Sonora/Sinaloa, Mexico" dated effective August 15, 2025, was filed by Algo Grande on December 15, 2025 (the "Technical Report").

About Algo Grande Copper Corp.

Algo Grande Copper Corp., is a growth-focused mineral exploration company advancing the Adelita Project - a district-scale, multi-system copper-gold-silver opportunity positioned in the prolific Arizona-Sonora copper belt.

The company is dedicated to unlocking the full mineral potential of this under-explored corridor through disciplined data-driven exploration, technical excellence, and a firm commitment to value creation for shareholders. The 5,895-hectare Adelita Project is anchored by the high-grade Cerro Grande Cu-Au-Ag skarn discovery, which exhibits strong continuity along a defined corridor extending over 6 kilometers. Reprocessing of legacy geophysical data and field mapping indicate the presence of a potential porphyry system at depth, suggesting a classic skarn-porphyry mineralization model similar to major deposits found throughout northwestern Mexico.

ON BEHALF OF ALGO GRANDE COPPER CORP.

Enrico Gay
Chief Executive Officer

Cautionary Statement on Forward-Looking Information

NEITHER THE TSX VENTURE EXCHANGE NOR ITS REGULATION SERVICES PROVIDER (AS THAT TERM IS DEFINED IN THE POLICIES OF THE TSX VENTURE EXCHANGE) ACCEPTS RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE ADEQUACY OR ACCURACY OF THIS RELEASE.

This news release contains statements and information that, to the extent that they are not historical fact, constitute "forward-looking information" within the meaning of applicable securities legislation. Forward-looking information is based on the reasonable assumptions, estimates, analysis and opinions of management made in light of its experience and its perception of trends, current conditions and expected developments, as well as other factors that management believes to be relevant and reasonable in the circumstances at the date that such statements are made, but which may prove to be incorrect. Forward-looking information involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the Algo Grande to differ materially from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking information, including, but not limited to, statements relating to the proposed use of proceeds of the Financing, the registration of title to the Concessions, business development, results of operations, and those listed in filings made by Algo Grande with the Canadian securities regulatory authorities (which may be viewed at www.sedarplus.ca). Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on any such forward-looking information. Further, any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made. New factors emerge from time to time, and it is not possible for Algo Grande's management to predict all of such factors and to assess in advance the impact of each such factor on Algo Grande's business or the extent to which any factor, or combination of factors, may cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward- looking statements. Algo Grande does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking information to reflect information, events, results, circumstances or otherwise after the date hereof or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events, except as required by law including securities laws.

To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/278651

Source: Kenadyr Metals Corp.

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Gold was steady in the morning Asian session, supported by prospects of Fed rate cuts that typically enhance the appeal of the non-interest-bearing precious metal.

In the latest close session, Nucor (NUE - Free Report) was down 1.78% at $157.83. The stock's change was less than the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.79%. Elsewhere, the Dow gained 0.14%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq added 1.38%.

Shares of the steel company have appreciated by 8.15% over the course of the past month, underperforming the Basic Materials sector's gain of 8.18%, and outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.87%.

Market participants will be closely following the financial results of Nucor in its upcoming release. The company plans to announce its earnings on January 26, 2026. In that report, analysts expect Nucor to post earnings of $2.07 per share. This would mark year-over-year growth of 69.67%. Meanwhile, our latest consensus estimate is calling for revenue of $7.79 billion, up 10.07% from the prior-year quarter.

For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $8.11 per share and a revenue of $32.6 billion, demonstrating changes of -8.88% and +6.06%, respectively, from the preceding year.

Investors should also take note of any recent adjustments to analyst estimates for Nucor. Such recent modifications usually signify the changing landscape of near-term business trends. As a result, we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the business outlook.

Research indicates that these estimate revisions are directly correlated with near-term share price momentum. To take advantage of this, we've established the Zacks Rank, an exclusive model that considers these estimated changes and delivers an operational rating system.

The Zacks Rank system, which varies between #1 (Strong Buy) and #5 (Strong Sell), carries an impressive track record of exceeding expectations, confirmed by external audits, with stocks at #1 delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 2.84% higher within the past month. Nucor is holding a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) right now.

With respect to valuation, Nucor is currently being traded at a Forward P/E ratio of 19.82. Its industry sports an average Forward P/E of 13.88, so one might conclude that Nucor is trading at a premium comparatively.

It is also worth noting that NUE currently has a PEG ratio of 1.24. The PEG ratio is akin to the commonly utilized P/E ratio, but this measure also incorporates the company's anticipated earnings growth rate. By the end of yesterday's trading, the Steel - Producers industry had an average PEG ratio of 0.77.

The Steel - Producers industry is part of the Basic Materials sector. This industry, currently bearing a Zacks Industry Rank of 147, finds itself in the bottom 41% echelons of all 250+ industries.

The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our individual industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.

To follow NUE in the coming trading sessions, be sure to utilize Zacks.com.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given that any particular security, portfolio, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The author is not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security or other matter. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy, or any product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal and financial situation. Steven Cress is the Head of Quantitative Strategy at Seeking Alpha. Any views or opinions expressed herein may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank.

Scholastic Corporation (SCHL) Q2 2026 Earnings Call December 18, 2025 4:30 PM EST

Company Participants

Jeffrey Mathews - Executive VP, Chief Growth Officer & Interim President of Scholastic Education
Peter Warwick - President, CEO & Director
Haji Glover - CFO & Executive Vice President

Conference Call Participants

Brendan Michael McCarthy - Sidoti & Company, LLC
Andrew Crum - B. Riley Securities, Inc., Research Division

Presentation

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Scholastic reports, Second Quarter, Fiscal Year 2026 Results. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jeffrey Mathews, Executive Vice President and Chief Growth Officer.

Jeffrey Mathews
Executive VP, Chief Growth Officer & Interim President of Scholastic Education

Hello, and welcome, everyone, to Scholastic's Fiscal 2026 Second Quarter Earnings Call. Today on the call, I'm joined by Peter Warwick, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Haji Glover, our Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President. As usual, we posted the accompanying investor presentation on our IR website at investor.scholastic.com, which you may download now if you've not already done so.

We would like to point out that certain statements made today will be forward-looking. These forward-looking statements, by their nature, are subject to various risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially from those currently anticipated.

In addition, we will be discussing some non-GAAP financial measures, as defined in Regulation G. The reconciliations of those measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures may be found in the company's earnings release and accompanying financial tables filed this afternoon on Form 8-K. This earnings release has also been posted to our Investor Relations website. We encourage you to review the disclaimers in the release and investor presentation and to review