Market Signal Briefing

XRP was the most traded asset on Uphold in 2025, according to the firm's Monday announcement. 

A long-time XRP supporter The most recent development is not surprising, given that Uphold is a long-time supporter of the Uphold token. Unlike many other US exchanges that delisted XRP during the SEC lawsuit years, Uphold kept it listed. This built immense loyalty. In 2025, that loyalty converted into volume once again. 

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Uphold expanded XRP utility in 2025, exploring yield options and staking integrations (e.g., via Flare Network). 

On top of that, it organized some high-value promotional campaigns involving the XRP token earlier this year. 

Other key highlights Uphold listed 74 new tokens this year, including Telcoin (TEL) and Stronghold (SHX). 

 It has also secured some key collaborations. The partnership with tZERO is the most significant "real-world" development here.

The bitcoin price hovered below $90,000 near $80,000 today as traders made another late push to recover year-end losses during thin holiday trading, but the market again lacked the conviction needed for a sustained breakout.

The bitcoin price stood at $88,063 at the time of writing, up about 1% over the past 24 hours, according to market data. Trading volume totaled roughly $40 billion, reflecting muted participation as December draws to a close. 

Bitcoin is now about 1% below its seven-day high of $89,201 and roughly 1% above its seven-day low of $86,855.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency has a circulating supply of 19,969,296 BTC, with a hard cap of 21 million coins. Bitcoin’s total market capitalization is approximately $1.76 trillion, up 1% from a day earlier.

Bitcoin pushed toward the $90,000 level yesterday for a second straight session before the rally stalled once again. Price action remains confined to a broad range between roughly $85,000 and $95,000, a structure that has defined the market since a sharp October sell-off. 

That drawdown followed Bitcoin’s all-time high in early October, when prices were up nearly 30% on the year.

Since then, sentiment has shifted. The bitcoin price is now down about 5% from last December, putting it on track for its first annual loss in three years.

“I’d continue to expect exaggerated moves on light flow through New Year’s,” Jasper De Maere, desk strategist at Wintermute, said in a note to Bloomberg.. He cautioned traders against relying too heavily on short-term signals until liquidity returns to normal levels.

The recent price stagnation contrasts with the broader recovery in traditional risk assets. Bitcoin began the year with a strong rally fueled by optimism around crypto-friendly policies under the second Trump administration. 

That enthusiasm faded as uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda rattled global markets.

Bitcoin price battling with leveraged traders
While U.S. equities have largely rebounded from those shocks, Bitcoin has struggled to regain momentum. The October downturn was compounded by a wave of liquidations after leveraged positions reached record levels. On Oct. 10, a sharp sell-off flushed out long exposure and reset market positioning.

Demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds has also weakened. According to data by Bloomberg, ETF outflows have reached roughly $6 billion in the fourth quarter, adding steady pressure as Bitcoin failed to reclaim the $90,000 threshold.

Holiday trading conditions have further distorted price action. Earlier this week, the bitcoin price swung sharply around $90,000 during low-liquidity sessions, posting fast gains and losses that lacked follow-through.

Prices briefly rose about 2.6% during thin trading and held above $86,000 over the week, but again failed to sustain levels above $90,000 during Asian hours.

QCP Capital said recent moves reflect a market short on participation. In a note, the firm pointed to a steep decline in derivatives activity following last Friday’s record options expiry. Open interest dropped by nearly 50%, signaling that many traders moved to the sidelines.

That options expiry also altered short-term market dynamics. According to QCP, dealers who were long gamma ahead of the event are now short gamma on the upside. In such conditions, rising prices can force hedging activity that amplifies short-term moves, particularly when liquidity is thin.

A similar setup emerged earlier this month when the bitcoin price briefly approached $90,000. Funding rates climbed quickly as traders crowded into bullish positions, creating short-lived upward pressure. 

Deribit’s perpetual funding rate surged above 30% following the latest expiry, up from near-flat levels beforehand. Elevated funding rates often indicate overheated positioning and raise the cost of maintaining long exposure.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin Magazine analysts said the market continues to reject lower levels within a broadening wedge pattern, suggesting downside momentum is weakening. Key resistance sits at $91,400 and $94,000. A weekly close above $94,000 could open a path toward $101,000 and $108,000, though resistance remains heavy.

On the downside, $84,000 remains critical support. A break below that level could send the bitcoin price toward the $72,000 to $68,000 range.

Micah Zimmerman

Micah first discovered Bitcoin in 2018 but remained a skeptic on the sidelines for too long. Since 2021, he has covered crypto and business and now works as a news reporter for Bitcoin Magazine, based in North Carolina.

XRP is struggling to regain bullish momentum as persistent selling pressure continues to dominate market conditions. Price action remains weak, and recent attempts at recovery have failed to attract meaningful demand. With bulls largely absent, sentiment across the XRP market has turned defensive, and an increasing number of analysts are warning that the token could face further downside in the coming weeks if current conditions persist.

Despite the bearish tone reflected in price, on-chain data reveals an important structural shift. Data from Binance shows that XRP reserves on the exchange have declined to approximately 2.64 billion XRP, marking their lowest level since 2024.

XRP Ledger Exchange Reserve | Source: CryptoQuant
This drop indicates that a significant amount of XRP has been withdrawn from the platform, reducing the supply readily available for immediate sale. In on-chain analysis, falling exchange reserves are typically interpreted as a sign that holders are moving assets into self-custody rather than positioning to sell aggressively.

The divergence between weakening price action and declining exchange reserves adds complexity to the outlook. While the market remains under clear pressure and momentum continues to fade, the absence of rising reserves suggests that the recent price decline has not been driven by large-scale exchange selling. Instead, the data points toward weak demand rather than an influx of sell orders.

Falling Exchange Reserves Suggest Selling Pressure Is Easing
A recent CryptoQuant report highlights a sharp decline in XRP reserves on Binance, pointing to a continued outflow of coins from the exchange. This reduction means fewer tokens are readily available for immediate sale, a dynamic that on-chain analysts typically associate with easing sell-side pressure.

Instead of positioning to exit, investors appear to be moving XRP into private wallets, signaling a preference for holding or using assets outside of active trading venues.

Arab Chain adds important context to this development. XRP’s price has fallen to around $1.80 after failing to sustain levels above $3, a zone that previously defined the bullish peak of the move. Crucially, this price decline has not been accompanied by an increase in exchange reserves.

In past market cycles, sharp bearish reversals were often driven by rising reserves, as large inflows to exchanges reflected aggressive selling. That pattern is notably absent this time.

The current setup suggests that XRP’s weakness is more a function of fading demand than heavy distribution. Sellers do not appear to be flooding exchanges, even as price trends lower. This distinction matters for assessing downside risk.

With XRP reserves now at their lowest level since 2024, the market may be building a more supportive base. If buying momentum returns, reduced exchange supply will amplify price reactions, triggering faster and more pronounced moves than periods of high reserves.

XRP Tests Long-Term Support As Bearish Structure Persists
XRP price continues to trade in a clearly weakened structure, with the chart highlighting a prolonged corrective phase following the sharp rejection from the $3.60–$3.70 highs. After peaking in late summer, XRP entered a steady downtrend marked by lower highs and persistent selling pressure, eventually breaking below the $2.00 psychological level. This breakdown shifted market structure decisively in favor of bears and accelerated the move toward the current $1.85–$1.90 zone.

XRP consolidates around key demand | Source: XRPUSDT chart on TradingView
From a technical perspective, XRP is trading below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, both of which have rolled over and are now acting as dynamic resistance. The 200-day moving average, currently rising near the $1.75–$1.80 region, has become the most critical level to monitor.

Price is hovering just above this long-term support, suggesting that selling pressure is slowing but not yet fully exhausted. At the same time, declining volume during recent sessions points to reduced participation rather than clear accumulation.

As long as XRP fails to reclaim the $2.10–$2.20 range, downside risks remain elevated. A decisive breakdown below the 200-day moving average would likely open the door to a deeper correction toward the $1.60 area. On the upside, bulls would need a strong reclaim of $2.00 followed by acceptance above short-term moving averages to signal a meaningful trend reversal.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS stock) jumped roughly 6.5% Tuesday after the company confirmed an accelerated launch cadence for 2026 and disclosed a timely insider purchase. The developments signalled renewed confidence in its ambitious space-based cellular network.

Palo Alto Networks Inc (NASDAQ:PANW) stock is on track to close out 2025 with a modest 2.9% lead, but has been stalling out below the $190 region since it failed to conquer the $200 level earlier this month.

Key Takeaways RYAAY raised its fiscal 2026 traffic outlook to 207M passengers on early Boeing deliveries and solid demand.Ryanair's strong cash, debt repayments and active buybacks support its position amid rising travel demand.RYAAY is hurt by production delays at Boeing, high staff costs and escalated air traffic control fees.
Shares of European carrier, Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY - Free Report) have had a good time on the bourses of late, improving in double digits so far this year. The encouraging price performance resulted in RYAAY outperforming the Zacks Airline industry in the said time frame. Additionally, RYAAY’s price performance is favorable to that of other airline operators like Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK - Free Report) ), while unfavorable with that of Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT - Free Report) in the same timeframe.

RYAAY Stock’s Three-Month Price Comparison Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Given the recent rally, the question that naturally arises is whether RYAAY stock can sustain its bullish price performance or should investors book profits now. Before that, let's delve deep to unearth the reasons behind this northward price movement.

Tailwinds Working in Favor of RYAAY StockWith travel bookings rising across the industry, Ryanair’s passenger revenues are also increasing. Because of this air-travel demand strength, RYAAY's traffic grew 9% to 183.7 million passengers in fiscal 2024. Further, we would like to remind investors that Ryanair carried 200.2 million passengers (traffic up 9% year over year) in its fiscal year ending March 2025, positioning itself as the first European airline to reach 200 million passengers in a single year. As a result, RYAAY is now the world’s leading low-fare airline in terms of passenger traffic, with low fares and reduced costs acting as the main catalyst. During the first half of fiscal 2026, RYAAY’s traffic grew 3% year over year to 119 million passengers.  

Given the aforesaid encouraging backdrops, Ryanair has unveiled its raised traffic outlook for fiscal 2026 (concurrent with its second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release on Nov. 3, 2025). Ryanair now expects its fiscal 2026 traffic to grow by more than 3% to 207 million passengers (prior view: 206 million), owing to earlier than expected Boeing deliveries and solid demand during the first half of fiscal 2026.

Ryanair’s fleet-modernization initiatives to cater to the improvement in travel demand are encouraging. The inclusion of modern planes in its fleet and the retirement of the old ones align with its environmentally-friendly approach. During fiscal 2025, Ryanair took delivery of 30 new Boeing 737-8200 aircraft. The latest inclusions, apart from having all basic amenities, result in improved fuel efficiency. By the end of October 2025, 204 of the 210 Boeing 737-8200 aircraft (to be purchased under the 2014 contract) had been delivered. The remaining six aircraft are expected to be delivered ahead of the summer season of fiscal 2026, which encourages the company to expect 4% traffic growth to 215 million passengers during fiscal 2027. In May 2023, 300 new Boeing 737-MAX-10 aircraft orders were placed for delivery between 2027 and 2033. Ryanair expects these fuel-efficient MAX jets to generate substantial growth.

RYAAY has a solid balance sheet. The low-cost carrier ended second-quarter fiscal 2026 with cash and cash equivalents of $3.58 billion, much higher than the current debt level of $1.40 billion. This implies that the company has sufficient cash to meet its current debt obligations. RYAAY's efforts to repay its debts are encouraging too. As of Sept. 30, 2025, RYAAY made €1.2 billion in debt repayments.

Long-Term Debt to Capitalization Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

RYAAY is also active on the share buyback front. During fiscal 2025, Ryanair purchased and canceled 7% of its issued share capital, comprising more than 77 million shares, and has now retired almost 36% of its issued share capital since 2008. In April 2025, RYAAY repurchased nearly 1 million shares, completing the €800 million share buyback program. In May 2025, RYAAY’s board approved a follow-on €750 million share buyback program. As of Sept. 30, 2025, RYAAY had purchased (and canceled) more than 7 million shares (almost 25% of the programme) for €188 million.

Headwinds Weighing on RYAAY StockProduction delays at Boeing have been hurting the fleet-related plans of most airline companies, and it is no different for RYAAY. The company is actively in talks with Boeing leadership to speed up aircraft deliveries and has also visited Seattle at the beginning of January. Although B737 production is recovering from Boeing’s strike in late 2024, it is still slow to deliver sufficient aircraft ahead of the summer season of fiscal 2026. RYAAY anticipates the remaining six Gamechangers of the 210 orderbook are likely to be delivered before the summer of 2026. Additionally, Boeing expects the MAX-10 to be certified in mid-2026, followed by the delivery of the first 15 MAX-10s in Spring 2027 (with 300 of these fuel-efficient aircraft deliveries due by March 2034).

Escalating operating expenses due to high staff costs and higher air traffic control fees are hurting Ryanair’s bottom line. During the first half of fiscal 2026, staff costs increased 3% year over year due to higher salaries and agreed pay increases. Airport and handling charges rose 4% year over year owing to traffic growth, higher landing, ground air traffic control and handling rates. As a result, total operating expenses grew 4% year over year, owing to higher staff and other costs, which were in part due to Boeing delivery delays. This was partially offset by fuel hedge savings. High costs naturally put pressure on margins.

Given these headwinds surrounding the stock, earnings estimates have been southbound, as shown below.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Wrapping UpIt is understood that RYAAY's top line continues to benefit from the resurgent travel scenario. RYAAY’s raised traffic outlook for fiscal 2026 is an encouraging move that is likely to impress investors. RYAAY’s measures to expand its fleet, to cater to the rising travel demand, look encouraging. A solid balance sheet allows RYAAY to reward its shareholders in the form of share buybacks and dividend payments. Despite these positives, we advise investors not to buy RYAAY shares now due to headwinds like the production delays at Boeing, high staff costs and escalated air traffic control fees.

We advise investors to wait for a better entry point. For those who already own the stock, it will be prudent to stay invested. The company’s current Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) justifies our analysis. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

AGNC Investment has a massive 13% dividend yield, but tread carefully if you are looking for a reliable dividend stock.

AGNC Investment (AGNC +0.14%) is a fairly well-run mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT). If you are looking to add an mREIT to your portfolio, it could be a good option.

However, before you buy AGNC and its huge 13% dividend yield, you need to step back and consider what you are really looking for. If your goals align with management's goals, it could be worth buying. If not, AGNC Investment will likely disappoint you.

What does AGNC Investment do?
A property-owning real estate investment trust (REIT) is fairly easy to understand. These companies do what you would do if you owned a rental property, just on a much larger scale. Essentially, a REIT allows you access to institutional-level properties with the added bonus of the dividends avoiding corporate-level taxation (you have to pay taxes on REIT dividends as if they were earned income).

Image source: Getty Images.

Mortgage REITs use the same business structure, but they have a vastly different business approach. Instead of buying physical assets, mREITs, such as AGNC, purchase mortgages that have been pooled together into bond-like securities. While a property-owning REIT is an operating business, mREITs are often more like mutual funds.

This is because the value of an mREIT's business is, essentially, the value of the portfolio of mortgage securities it owns. Those securities are bought and sold on a regular basis, so their value changes based on market conditions. The same can be said of physical property, of course, but the dynamics are drastically different given that buildings generally change hands infrequently.

This has a very big impact on who should buy an mREIT like AGNC Investment. Property-owning REITs are, generally speaking, a great option for income investors seeking stocks offering reliable income streams. But mREITs have a less impressive history regarding dividend reliability.

AGNC Dividend data by YCharts.

What are you looking to achieve?
The chart above highlights the problem for dividend investors. Federal Realty (FRT 0.24%) is a Dividend King. It is the only Dividend King REIT, boasting over 50 consecutive annual dividend increases. AGNC, by contrast, has seen its dividend fluctuate dramatically since its initial public offering. Property-owning Federal Realty is the epitome of dividend reliability in the REIT sector; AGNC Investment, with its portfolio of mortgage securities, is the opposite.

If you are trying to build a reliable income stream, one that grows over time, you should consider avoiding AGNC Investment. It simply isn't built to provide that kind of income consistency, and its history confirms this. What does AGNC Investment aim to provide? Total return.

In order to fully benefit from an investment in AGNC, you'll need to reinvest all of the dividends you collect. If you spend them, you are likely to be disappointed with the outcome you receive. The chart below highlights the issue.

AGNC data by YCharts.

Despite a falling dividend and stock price, AGNC Investment's total return since its inception has trounced the total return of Federal Realty over that same span. If you spent the dividends you collected from each stock, Federal Realty would have been a much better choice. However, if you reinvested the dividends, AGNC's total return would prevail. AGNC could be a solid buy today, but only if you are looking for total return.

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You need to buy AGNC for the right reason
Whether AGNC is a good investment choice for you will ultimately depend on your goals. You have to identify both what you want to achieve and take the time to understand what AGNC actually provides.

If you only buy because of the huge dividend yield, you could end up disappointed by a dividend cut. However, that won't be AGNC Investment's fault. It is fairly clear about its big-picture goal, and it does a good job of achieving that goal, despite dividend cuts.

Both funds focus on dividend consistency, but their index construction leads to distinct outcomes as market leadership shifts.

Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) stands out for its ultra-low costs, broader sector mix, and higher recent returns, while ProShares - S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) focuses on equal-weighted blue-chip dividend growers with a defensive tilt.

Both funds target companies with robust dividend track records, but VIG and NOBL take different routes: VIG casts a wider net with hundreds of holdings and a tech tilt, while NOBL zeroes in on S&P 500 constituents with at least 25 consecutive years of dividend growth. Here’s how they compare on cost, performance, risk, and portfolio makeup.

Snapshot (cost & size)MetricNOBLVIGIssuerProSharesVanguardExpense ratio0.35%0.05%1-yr return (as of Dec. 12, 2025)3.05%12.73%Dividend yield2.04%1.59%Beta0.770.79AUM$11.3 billion$120.4 billionBeta measures price volatility relative to the S&P 500; beta is calculated from five-year weekly returns. The 1-yr return represents total return over the trailing 12 months.

VIG is meaningfully more affordable, charging just 0.05% in annual fees compared to NOBL’s 0.35%, though NOBL offers a slightly higher dividend payout at 2.0% versus VIG’s 1.6%.

Performance & risk comparisonMetricNOBLVIGMax drawdown (5 y)(17.92%)(20.39%)Growth of $1,000 over 5 years$1,319$1,557What's insideVIG tracks a broad index of large-cap U.S. stocks with a consistent record of growing dividends, resulting in a portfolio of 338 companies. Its largest sector weights are technology (28%), financial services (22%), and healthcare (15%), with top positions in Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL). The fund has a nearly 20-year track record and is managed by Vanguard, emphasizing low costs and full replication. There are no notable quirks or overlays that affect the fund’s mechanics.

NOBL’s 70-stock portfolio is equally weighted, with significant exposure to industrials (23%) and consumer defensive names (22%). Top holdings include Albemarle (NYSE: ALB), Expeditors Intl Wash (NYSE: EXPD), and C.H. Robinson Worldwide (NASDAQ: CHRW). The approach is more concentrated with a defensive tilt, and no single sector exceeds 30% of assets.

What this means for investorsDividend growth ETFs can feel interchangeable in calm markets, but their differences surface quickly when market leadership shifts.VIG casts a wide net across dividend growers and weights them by size, which naturally gives more influence to the market’s largest and most successful companies. NOBL is narrower by design, limiting itself to S&P 500 companies with 25 straight years of dividend increases and then weighting them evenly. That structural choice shapes everything that follows.

VIG’s approach allows strong businesses to grow into larger positions over time, which is why technology and other growth-oriented dividend payers can meaningfully affect results. NOBL’s equal-weight structure keeps redistributing exposure across its smaller lineup, preventing any single company from pulling too far ahead. This can make returns feel steadier when investors favor established names, but it can also hold the fund back when dividend growth is coming from faster-growing companies. Costs add to the difference, since VIG is priced to be held broadly, while NOBL’s higher fee reflects its tighter rules.

For investors, the takeaway is not about yield levels or dividend reliability, but about how dividend growth is sourced. VIG captures dividend growth as it emerges from today’s market leaders. NOBL preserves dividend growth as a historical standard built on endurance rather than change. Over time, that distinction shapes whether a dividend strategy evolves with the market or holds its ground against it.

GlossaryExpense ratio: The annual fee, as a percentage of assets, that a fund charges its investors.
Dividend yield: Annual dividends paid by a fund or stock divided by its current price, expressed as a percentage.
Total return: The investment's price change plus all dividends and distributions, assuming those payouts are reinvested.
Beta: A measure of an investment's volatility compared to the overall market, typically the S&P 500.
Max drawdown: The largest percentage drop from a fund’s peak value to its lowest point over a specific period.
AUM (Assets Under Management): The total market value of all assets managed by a fund.
Equal-weighted: A portfolio strategy where each holding has the same allocation, regardless of company size.
Defensive tilt: A portfolio emphasis on sectors or stocks considered less sensitive to economic downturns.
Full replication: An index fund strategy that holds all securities in the benchmark index in the same proportions.
Dividend growth: The consistent increase of dividend payments by a company over time.
Sector weights: The percentage of a fund’s assets allocated to each industry sector.
Constituents: The individual stocks or securities that make up an index or fund.

For more guidance on ETF investing, check out the full guide at this link.

LOS ANGELES, Dec. 30, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Portnoy Law Firm advises Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Inc. (“Ultragenyx" or the "Company") (NASDAQ: RARE) investors that the firm has initiated an investigation into possible securities fraud, and may file a class action on behalf of investors. 

Investors are encouraged to contact attorney Lesley F. Portnoy, by phone 844-767-8529 or email: [email protected], to discuss their legal rights, or join the case via https://portnoylaw.com/ultragenyx-pharmaceutical-inc. The Portnoy Law Firm can provide a complimentary case evaluation and discuss investors’ options for pursuing claims to recover their losses.

On December 29, 2025, Ultragenyx announced the results from both its Phase III Orbit and Cosmic studies, both focused on the effectiveness of setrusumab (UX143) in Osteogenesis Imperfecta. Both studies failed to achieve their primary endpoint of a reduction in annualized clinical fracture rate compared to placebo (in the Orbit study) and biophosphonates (in the Cosmic). While both studies achieved improvements in their secondary endpoints of improving patients' bone material density, that secondary result failed to correlate to a statistically significant reduction in fractures in either study. Ultragenyx further disclosed that it "will promptly define and implement significant expense reductions”. In direct response to this news, Ultragenyx's stock price fell by $14.87 (43.49%) per share to open at $19.32 per share on December 29, 2025. Ultragenyx's decline has dropped the stock to its new 52-week low, significantly below the prior low of $25.81

The Portnoy Law Firm represents investors in pursuing claims caused by corporate wrongdoing. The Firm’s founding partner has recovered over $5.5 billion for aggrieved investors. Attorney advertising. Prior results do not guarantee similar outcomes.

Lesley F. Portnoy, Esq.
Admitted CA, NY and TX Bar
[email protected]
310-692-8883
www.portnoylaw.com

Attorney Advertising

Key Takeaways PARR is benefiting from strong U.S. refining margins due to refinery outages and higher distillate demand.PARR expects a positive Q4 outlook as tightening supply and geopolitical tensions support refining margins.PARR gains from strong Singapore margins driven by geopolitical disruptions and seasonal distillate demand.
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR - Free Report) is a Houston-based refining player with a combined refining capacity of 219,000 barrels per day and operations spread across Hawaii and the Pacific Northwest. The company also operates 119 retail locations, along with a logistics business segment. Since the company is primarily involved in the refining business, it is worthwhile to assess whether the current refining environment is beneficial for Par Pacific.

Refining players have seen a significant boost in earnings in 2025 compared with the previous year, supported by strong refining margins throughout the year. In the United States, refining margins have significantly risen in 2025, driven by tightened supply due to refinery maintenance and outages, as well as growing demand for distillate fuels. Par Pacific also reported a significant increase in third-quarter 2025 refining earnings to $340.8 million, up from $19 million in the corresponding period of 2024.

Management has stated that the market outlook appears positive for the fourth quarter as well. This implies that the company is expected to benefit from a supportive macro refining environment in Q4, likely due to tightening supply and demand dynamics and geopolitical tensions and sanctions. The company has also highlighted that the strong Singapore margin environment, partially driven by geopolitical disruptions restricting crude flows into Asian countries and higher seasonal distillate demand, is beneficial for its distillate-oriented refineries.

Hence, the current refining environment appears favorable for Par Pacific Holdings, and the company is well-positioned to continue generating strong earnings in the near term.

PSX & VLO Are Two Other Leading RefinersPhillips 66 (PSX - Free Report) and Valero Energy Corporation (VLO - Free Report) are two leading refining players expected to benefit from strong refining margins. Both PSX and VLO sport a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).

Phillips 66 operates 11 refineries across the United States and Europe. The company recorded a 99% crude utilization rate in the third quarter, the highest since 2018. Its refining results benefit from strong margins seen this year. Further, its involvement in other segments, including midstream, renewables, and chemicals, provides earnings stability.

Valero Energy boasts an extensive refinery network, with 15 refineries and a combined throughput capacity of 3.2 million barrels per day. VLO’s diversified refinery base enables it to tap into different markets and cater to a diverse range of customer needs.

PARR’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesShares of PARR have surged 116.1% over the past year compared with the 15.3% improvement of the composite stocks belonging to the industry.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation standpoint, PARR trades at a trailing 12-month enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) of 4.45X. This is above the broader industry average of 4.36X.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PARR’s 2025 earnings has seen downward revisions over the past 30 days.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Par Pacific currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Tesla Inc. published a compilation of analyst estimates for vehicle deliveries to its website that on average shows expectations for the company to deliver 15% fewer cars in the fourth quarter from a year earlier. Craig Trudell reports on Bloomberg Television.

Hatem Dhiab says Nvidia's (NVDA) $20 billion acquisition of Groq shows "the new playbook" in Big Tech. He explains that the company adding arms to its AI reach through mergers and acquisitions is just the tip of the iceberg.

Tesla published a surprisingly weak average estimate of vehicle deliveries on its website for the fourth quarter – putting it on track for its second consecutive decline in annual sales.

The Elon Musk-owned electric vehicle maker said analysts on average expect it to deliver 422,850 cars in the fourth quarter – a 15% drop from the same period last year.

Tesla typically compiles average delivery estimates, but it is unusual for the automaker to broadcast the figure on its investor relations site, especially considering it’s such a dismal number.

Tesla published a surprisingly weak average estimate of vehicle deliveries on its website for the fourth quarter. Christopher Sadowski
Its estimate was even worse than outside compilations like Bloomberg’s, which projected Tesla will deliver 445,061 vehicles in the fourth quarter, down 10% from last year.

According to its own compilation, Tesla is on track to deliver 1.6 million vehicles over the entire year – down more than 8% from 2024 and its second annual decline in a row.

Tesla did not immediately respond to The Post’s request for comment.

It suffered a sales slump earlier this year as the automaker retooled production lines at each of its assembly plants for its Model Y vehicles. 

At the same time, it faced intensified competition from Chinese rivals like BYD – which tripled its sales in July as Tesla plummeted.

According to its own compilation, Tesla is on track to suffer its second consecutive decline in annual sales. ZUMAPRESS.com
Investors grew concerned about the company’s focus on artificial intelligence, robotics and autonomous technologies during earnings calls, instead of present-day opportunities.

Musk’s brand also suffered blowback from his ties to the Trump administration, earlier this year leading the cost-slashing body known as DOGE – leading to massive federal layoffs and cutting billions in foreign aid.

Protesters swarmed Tesla showrooms across the country and demonstrated outside Musk’s retro-futuristic diner in Hollywood. Tesla vehicles around the country have been set ablaze with molotov cocktails or vandalized.

The automaker’s deliveries rebounded to a record in the third quarter as panicked Americans rushed to buy EVs before the federal government’s $7,500 tax credits expired at the end of September.

It also rolled out pared-back versions of its Model Y SUV and Model 3 sedan, each less than $40,000, which helped dull the effect of the tax incentive disappearing.

Despite a rough sales year, shares in Tesla are poised to end 2025 higher. The stock has risen more than 20% so far this year.

The new holding places Flywire outside the fund’s top five positions.

On November 14, 2025, Mangrove Partners IM, LLC disclosed a new position in Flywire Corporation (FLYW 0.59%).

What happenedMangrove Partners established a new equity stake in Flywire, purchasing 2,901,693 shares during the third quarter of 2025. The transaction, reported in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on November 14, 2025 (SEC filing), brought the position’s value to approximately $39.29 million as of September 30, 2025.

What else to knowThis is a new position, representing 2.91% of Mangrove Partners IM, LLC’s 13F reportable assets under management as of September 30, 2025.Top holdings after the filing: 

OTC: ECDAW: $150,764,306 (11.1% of AUM)NASDAQ: INDV: $66,120,084 (4.9% of AUM)NYSE: RIO: $65,921,613 (4.9% of AUM)NYSE: ATMU: $59,994,635 (4.4% of AUM)NYSE: ENVA: $57,195,932 (4.2% of AUM)As of November 13, 2025, shares were priced at $13.84, down 36.01% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500 by 51.43 percentage points.The fund held 178 reportable positions with $1,353,544,954 in 13F assets at quarter end.Company overviewMetricValueMarket CapitalizationN/ARevenue (TTM)$583.03 millionNet Income (TTM)($2.44 million)Price (as of market close 2025-11-13)$13.84Company snapshotProvides a global payment platform and vertical-specific software, enabling cross-border and domestic transactions across multiple currencies and payment methods.Serves education, healthcare, travel, and business-to-business organizations as its primary customer segments.Headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts, with operations in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally.Flywire Corporation operates at scale as a technology-driven payment enablement and software provider, focusing on complex payment flows for international and domestic clients. The company leverages a proprietary platform to streamline payments and collections across diverse industries and geographies. Its competitive edge lies in its integrated network, vertical expertise, and ability to facilitate seamless, multi-currency transactions for institutions and their end customers.

Foolish takeFlywire is one of many positions opened by Mangrove Partners in the third quarter of 2025. Other than the increase in its position in ECD Automotive Design, Flywire was the largest purchase during Q3.

That purchase made Flywire Mangrove’s 11th largest position. It may also be somewhat unusual in a fund whose largest positions are heavily geared toward industrial stocks. However, with 178 positions, Mangrove has diversified across numerous industries.

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Additionally, Flywire appears geared toward improved profitability. Although one might not see that, given its 328 P/E ratio, the forward P/E of 18 may indicate the stock is a bargain.

Additionally, Flywire may have identified an attractive niche within the fintech industry. Although payment platforms are numerous and largely commoditized in the consumer space, Mangrove may see something in Flywire’s global payments platform reminiscent of specialized platforms such as Toast or Shift4. That could bode well for Flywire and, by extension, Mangrove Partners.

Glossary13F reportable assets: Securities that institutional investment managers must report quarterly to the SEC, showing their holdings.
Assets under management (AUM): The total market value of investments managed on behalf of clients by a fund or firm.
Position: The amount of a particular security or asset held by an investor or fund.
Stake: The ownership interest or share an investor holds in a company.
Trailing twelve months (TTM): The 12-month period ending with the most recent quarterly report.
Top holdings: The largest investments in a fund's portfolio, usually ranked by market value.
Equity stake: Ownership interest in a company, represented by shares of its stock.
Proprietary platform: A technology system developed and owned by a company, not licensed from outside providers.
Vertical-specific software: Software designed to serve the unique needs of a particular industry or sector.
Cross-border transactions: Financial transactions involving parties in different countries, often requiring currency conversion.
Integrated network: A connected system enabling efficient communication and transactions among participants or systems.
Quarter end: The last day of a company's fiscal quarter, used for financial reporting and analysis.

Many investors may still be making end of year investment decisions, whether to reduce tax impacts or to shift fixed income allocations for the new year. More than ever, ETFs offer tools to meet those goals, with an ever-increasing roster of strategies therein. Active and tax and income ETFs, including funds like TAXF and MUSI, stand out from that group and could be worth a look to get a jumpstart in the new year.

See more: This Red Hot International ETF Can Perform in 2026

The American Century Diversified Municipal Bond ETF (TAXF) takes an active approach to muni bonds. For a 27 basis point (bps) fee, the fund looks to boost investor income while also reducing overall tax burden. The tax ETF does so by focusing on tax-exempt municipal bonds, largely issued by the Federal government. 

TAXF looks for a bit more yield via riskier muni bonds, as well. The fund allocates just over a third of its holdings to those riskier munis to meet that goal. Its active approach helps its managers scrutinize bond issuers more closely than passive alternatives can. 

Together, the fund has returned 4.4% YTD according to ETF Database data. It has beaten its ETF Database Category average in that time based on that performance. The fund provided a 3.6% 12-month distribution rate as of November 30, per American Century Investments data.

For those who want to lean more into income ETFs, however, a strategy like MUSI may appeal. The American Century Multisector Income ETF (MUSI) charges a 37 bps fee to actively invest across the fixed income spectrum. 

Specifically, the fund looks for a high level of current income via segments as varied as bank loans, high yield, and emerging markets debt. Its remit is so wide that it also includes other income-producing investments like preferred stock and convertible securities as needed. 

That has helped MUSI return 8.5% YTD, also beating its ETF Database Category average. The fund has provided a 5.8% 12-month distribution rate as of November 30, as well, indicating that it is meeting its goal of providing strong income to investors.

Overall, the duo of tax and income ETFs could provide some solid options in uncertain times. Whether investors want to reduce their tax bills in the near and medium term, or just add some income ballast, TAXF and MUSI may be worth considering.

For more news, information, and strategy, visit the Core Strategies Content Hub.

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Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of ZM either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Metaplanet raised its Bitcoin income outlook after reporting a sharp Q4 revenue jump from its derivatives based strategy. Meanwhile, Bitcoin neared a rare oversold signal as its price lagged a rising global liquidity trend.

Metaplanet Inc. said it expects a sharp jump in revenue from its Bitcoin income generation business in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, citing stronger results than previously forecast.

In a notice dated Dec. 30, the company said it anticipates operating revenue of about 4.24 billion yen for the three months ending Dec. 31, 2025. The figure reflects income generated through Bitcoin derivatives, which Metaplanet uses to produce recurring revenue while continuing to accumulate Bitcoin over the medium to long term.

For the full fiscal year, Metaplanet now expects revenue from the Bitcoin income business to reach 8.58 billion yen. That total significantly exceeds its earlier forecast of 6.3 billion yen. The company said revenue growth accelerated throughout the year, with quarterly revenue expanding more than sixfold compared with the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024.

Metaplanet also reported that the compounded quarterly growth rate from the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 through the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 is expected to be about 57.4%, underscoring the rapid scaling of the business during the period.

According to the disclosure, Bitcoin held within the income generation portfolio is classified as a current asset under Japanese GAAP. Revenue from the segment reflects option premiums received, realized gains and losses, and valuation changes at period end. The company noted that the figures do not include unrealized gains or losses on Bitcoin designated as long term holdings.

Quarterly data showed steady acceleration. Revenue rose from about 692 million yen in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 to 770 million yen in the first quarter of fiscal 2025. It then increased to 1.13 billion yen in the second quarter, jumped to 2.44 billion yen in the third quarter, and reached roughly 4.24 billion yen in the fourth quarter, marking a 74% increase quarter over quarter.

Bitcoin nears rare oversold signal as global liquidity divergesMeanwhile, Bitcoin is flashing an oversold signal that has appeared only a handful of times across its trading history, according to crypto analyst Quinten François, who shared the observation alongside a long term global liquidity chart.

Bitcoin Global Liquidity Model. Source: Binance, Quinten François on X

The chart compares Bitcoin’s price with a global liquidity model and shows the asset pressing toward the lower deviation bands, an area historically associated with stretched downside conditions. François said the signal has triggered only six times before, making the current setup statistically uncommon in Bitcoin’s multi cycle record.

The model highlights a strong historical relationship between Bitcoin and global liquidity, with the liquidity trend explaining most of Bitcoin’s long term price movement. While Bitcoin’s price has recently lagged the liquidity curve, the gap has widened toward levels seen during prior periods of market stress.

Previous instances where Bitcoin reached similar oversold conditions coincided with macro driven drawdowns, including liquidity contractions and risk off phases. In each case, price deviated sharply below the liquidity trend before eventually reverting closer to it as conditions stabilized.

The latest reading shows Bitcoin trading near the lower bound of the model’s historical range, while global liquidity continues to trend higher into late 2025. François noted that the signal does not appear often and reflects extreme positioning rather than short term price noise.

The chart spans data from 2015 through projections into 2026, placing the current setup alongside major turning points from earlier cycles. While the model does not predict timing, it frames the current price level as one of the more compressed relative to liquidity seen across Bitcoin’s history.

Async Payjoin is the best hope for strong privacy in Bitcoin. Modeled after HTTPS, which enabled secure payments for the web, the Payjoin foundation has been quietly building up this privacy toolkit, which must be adopted by a large number of Bitcoin wallets, to deliver privacy at scale. 

Modeled after the Bitcoin and Lightning dev kits — which have become quite popular among wallet developers — and built with the same cryptographic primitives already in Bitcoin core, such that it can be easily integrated into the main Bitcoin implementation, Async Payjoin is designed from the bottom up for mass adoption. 

Following in the footsteps of Let’s Encrypt, which in the 2010s led the mass adoption of HTTPS on the web via open source, free software tooling, Async Payjoin looks to solve Bitcoin’s biggest privacy pain points through an open privacy standard. Unlike specific privacy-focused wallets like Samourai Wallet and Wasabi, Async Payjoin is a software library that any bitcoin payments app can integrate, joining an open standard of privacy, similar to HTTPS on the web. 

Async Payjoin is also referred to as Payjoin V2 by the Foundation, as it differs from V1, an older implementation that requires both users to be online while they transact for the Payjoin to work. A growing list of Bitcoin wallets support the Payjoin Foundation’s V1 and V2 standards today, including:  

BTCPay server – V1 Blue Wallet – V1 Bull Bitcoin Mobile – V2 Wasabi Wallet – V1 Cake Wallet – V2 Bitmask – V1 JoinMarket – V1 Sparrow Wallet – V1 Async Payjoin is backwards compatible, such that users with wallets that do not support the standard yet can still send to Payjoin addresses and QR codes without friction to the users. Fans of Bitcoin privacy should ask their favorite wallet providers to integrate this open source standard, which developers can find a technical reference for at Bip 77, alongside their plug-and-play dev kit on GitHub. 

The PayJoin Foundation Team The nonprofit PayJoin Foundation, launched in August 2025 to sustain open-source privacy development, receives funding from OpenSats and Cake Wallet, while Spiral, Human Rights Foundation, Maelstrom, and Brink have supported many of the open-source developers who contributed to the project. Their GitHub shows 37 contributors just on the Rust implementation of Async Payjoin.

Development of the Async Payjoin protocol, also known as Payjoin V2 via Bip 77, is spearheaded by Dan Gould, executive director of the Payjoin Foundation and lead maintainer of the Payjoin DevKit. Dan has pioneered Bitcoin privacy tools since the TumbleBit era, forked Wasabi Wallet for mobile use, and co-authored BIP 77 with Yuval Kogman, advisory board member and Spiral Bitcoin Wizard with over two decades of programming experience. Kogman has done extensive work in the Bitcoin privacy field, such as developing WabiSabi DoS protections and whistleblowing vulnerabilities in various CoinJoin implementations. 

Armin Sabouri has also joined the team as R&D lead with prior roles as CTO at Botanix and engineer at Casa, co-winner of the 2021 MIT Bitcoin Hackathon by getting Bip 78 CoinJoin working on Mac OS via Tor, and is a co-author of BIP 347 (OP_CAT). 

Gould told Bitcoin Magazine that they are always fundraising and that “none of this work is possible without the funders.” He also went into detail about why they decided to start a Payjoin foundation rather than a for-profit entity, saying that “Bitcoin privacy — for-profits have basically been killed.” 

According to Gould, a nonprofit is more sustainable to solve the problem because it aligns the incentives; “I think the for-profits have an incentive to sell something that doesn’t necessarily guarantee privacy because if they make a sale, they earn profit. And we’ve seen on the internet that it was attempted. Phil Zimmerman started a company that developed PGP. But HTTPS was a decentralized nonprofit effort, as was Tor”. Gould says the Payjoin Foundation has applied for 501 (c) (3) status, which is pending approval. Donors can contact him at [email protected]. 

How does Payjoin work? Payjoin provides privacy to Bitcoin by breaking a common pattern of normal transactions, where the sender has one input that gets split up into two to make a payment. Of the resulting outputs, one is likely to be the payment and the other the change back to the sender. 

Users often have multiple UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs), which are like pockets of coins. If a transaction tries to send more than is in one UTXO, it will pull from another, linking two of these pockets of coins, which up until that point might have had no connection to each other on the chain. This reduces the privacy of users in the eyes of blockchain analysts, who can assume the two UTXO packets belong to the same entity. 

(image by Atlas21) Payjoin dissolves the standard input heuristic by facilitating coordination between the sender and the receiver, resulting in transactions that appear to have two inputs and two outputs, where one of the inputs is from the receiver. The receiver gets the same amount he is expecting; both parties simply coordinate on the amounts and co-create the transaction. As a result, what would have been a single-input, two-output transaction now has two inputs and two outputs, confusing on-chain analysts. The more transactions of this type exist, the less reliable the single-input heuristic becomes, resulting in more privacy for all users, as the core assumption of on-chain analysis breaks down.   

This process is entirely non custodial, with full control over amounts signed and sent by both parties, it is atomic, if both parties don’t agree, the transaction is not valid. 

Gould cautioned about how much information is leaked with normal bitcoin transactions today, referring to organizations like Chain Analysis, which can, in some circumstances, get access to exchange user data to try and identify owners of a given UTXO, “if you snoop on that, you can see who you’ve transferred money to in the past. You can see who someone transfers money to in the future. You can see how much money someone has. You can see how much money someone makes.”

Enhancements to Bitcoin privacy of this sort are crucial to the success of Bitcoin as they enforce the fungibility of the asset, an important quality of sound money. Fungibility means that all coins are considered equal and interchangeable; one is not different from the other based on its history. 

Cryptocurrencies that focus on maximizing on-chain privacy, like Zcash or Monero, offer higher default degrees of on-chain privacy by encrypting the amounts transferred among parties. This, however, comes at a high cost; validation of the total supply of coins in these alternative cryptocurrencies is much more complicated. As a result, bugs in the related cryptography could lead to inflation bugs that are undetectable, a risk which undermines scarcity, another critical quality of sound money.

Payjoin in turn provides Bitcoin a higher degree of on-chain privacy without encrypting the amounts transferred between parties, respecting the scarcity of Bitcoin while enhancing fungibility. The main trade-off is that it can not be a protocol-level change; it needs wallet adoption and thus user engagement.

It’s also important to note that fiat-level privacy already protects users from third-party analysis by being a closed private system, or tries to anyway. Government agencies and executives working at banks have much greater visibility into user balances, but organized crime does not. There are also many laws in countries throughout the world defending user financial privacy, which Async Payjoin is looking to elevate Bitcoin to. 

Network privacy and the client-server V2 model, the Async part of the protocol. 
One of the challenges historically with traditional Payjoin is that it required both parties to be online to coordinate the creation of the transaction. To solve this, Payjoin V2 introduces a blinded directory server to provide asynchronous Payjoin coordination among parties, using the well-known Internet standard, Oblivious HTTP.

Gould told Bitcoin Magazine that “the cool thing is the protocol has the directory server blinded. The directory server is only reachable by oblivious HTTP, which is basically a forced proxy. So the IP addresses (of users) are never leaked to the directory server.” Adding that, “the payload (pre-signed transaction) is actually end-to-end encrypted between the sender and the receiver anyway. So the directory just gets an 8-kilobyte uniform encrypted blob. They don’t see anything.”

In fact, Gould compared the use of OHTTP to Tor, explaining that “The reason we used it is because it’s a web standard. So it’s gone through the rigorous review process. OHTTP is literally supported in the iOS operating system. It’s used in browsers.” adding that “OHTTP it’s kind of like the minimal viable product of Tor where Tor layers encryption and does multiple hops and this is just the most minimal version where you just have one hop. You just have one layer of encryption.” Similar multi-hop network encryption is used in the Lightning network to protect user privacy. 

The Payjoin V2 servers provide no financial reward to those who run them, similar to Tor exit nodes, which have sustained these privacy networks on a volunteer basis for decades.  

What about compliance? Regulators and, as a result, exchange operators often have concerns about Bitcoin privacy technologies, as they are perceived to be in conflict with topics of compliance. Gould considers this a misconception, saying that “the reality is that a compliance regime is totally independent from the nature of the chain. If an exchange wants to collect your baby’s name, know the place you live, your phone number, and what source of funds, having privacy by default doesn’t stop them from doing that. Doesn’t stop them from asking for it in order to do business with the user.” Adding that “It just doesn’t give them complete insight into your whole wallet, past, present, and future. So it puts the power to consent to reveal the information about your money in your own hands.”

David Beckham-backed Prenetics ditches bitcoin purchaseThe health sciences company, co-founded by English football icon, announcement comes as the crypto’s market capitalization continues to lose ground. Dec 30, 2025, 6:26 p.m.

Prenetics (PRE), a health-sciences company that raised $48 million earlier this year, partially to build a bitcoin treasury, said it decided to stop purchasing BTC amid prolonged weakness in the cryptocurrency market.

The company rolled out its bitcoin accumulation strategy in June, following a model championed by Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc, in which firms raise capital to buy and hold crypto on their balance sheets. The business model gained traction earlier this year as crypto prices rose, but enthusiasm faded after the steep market downturn in October.

STORY CONTINUES BELOW

On Oct. 27, Prenetics CEO and co/founder Danny Yeung announced the funding round, which included investors such as Kraken, Exodus (EXOD), GPTX and American Ventures. He said the funds would help its "IM8" business scale globally while accumulating 1 BTC daily toward a goal of $1 billion in revenue and bitcoin within five years.

However, the firm said in a statement on Tuesday that it stopped purchasing bitcoin on Dec. 4 to focus its resources exclusively on IM8, which it said has generated more than $100 million in annualized recurring revenue (ARR) since it launched 11 months ago.

“The phenomenal success of IM8 has exceeded all expectations and scaled much faster than we originally anticipated,” Yeung said. “Our board and management team unanimously agreed that the most promising path to creating significant, sustainable shareholder value is to devote our undivided attention to this opportunity clearly visible in IM8.”

Prenetics, backed and co-founded by English football icon David Beckham, said it won't allocate any existing or new capital for the purpose of buying additional bitcoin. However, it still plans to hold its existing 510 bitcoin as a reserve asset, worth nearly $45 million as of Tuesday afternoon ET.

Prenetics shares have risen 189% this year, while Michael Saylor's MSTR fell nearly 48% and bitcoin dipped about 5.6%.

Read more: Is the Bitcoin Digital Asset Treasury Model Broken? Architect Partners Says No

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2025 was defined by a stark divergence: structural progress collided with stagnant price action. Institutional milestones were reached and TVL increased across most major ecosystems, yet the majority of large-cap Layer-1 tokens finished the year with negative or flat returns.

This report analyzes the structural decoupling between network usage and token performance. We examine 10 major blockchain ecosystems, exploring protocol versus application revenues, key ecosystem narratives, mechanics driving institutional adoption, and the trends to watch as we head into 2026.

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Grayscale files for first U.S. Bittensor ETP as decentralized AI gains momentum

2 hours ago

The filing marks the first attempt to bring TAO, Bittensor’s native token, to U.S. markets through a regulated investment product.

What to know:

Grayscale has filed an initial S-1 registration with the SEC for the first U.S.-listed ETP offering exposure to Bittensor's TAO token.The proposed Grayscale Bittensor Trust will be trading under the ticker GTAO, and aims to provide regulated access to decentralized AI tokens.The filing highlights the rapid evolution of decentralized AI and growing institutional interest in AI-related crypto assets.Read full story

In the evolving landscape, the narrative around XRP’s real use case is increasingly standing out in a market often driven by speculation. The altcoin is embedded in live financial workflows, particularly in cross-border payments and liquidity management. Its role as a bridge asset allows institutions to move value quickly, cheaply, and at scale, solving real inefficiencies in the global payments system.

Why XRP Functions As A Bridge Asset In Global Payments
This design choice is centered on understanding why its utility will drive price appreciation. An analyst known as SMQKE revealed on X that the core of this model is payment utility. XRP is designed to operate within the global payment infrastructure, and Ripple has integrated with existing financial systems to enhance speed, reduce costs, and improve settlement efficiency.

Through Ripple’s integrations, financial institutions adopt the network, and the altcoin is utilized directly to move value across borders. From a price perspective, this document outlines how institutional settlement activity has created a sustainable demand for XRP, supporting price appreciation through real transaction flow.

Analyst Vet has highlighted the areas where XRP and the XRP Ledger were great in 2025. One is smart contracts, and a significant amount of development went into getting the alpha testnet live, where individuals can currently deploy and play around with it. Community awareness toward this also increased meaningfully.

On the DeFi front, momentum came out strongly from late 2024, especially driven by meme coins. However, the activity dried out over the year. Baseline DEX activity is now higher than it was before the DeFi wave, but this raises the potential for more growth in 2026. 

Furthermore, interoperability has made tangible progress as Wormhole went live, Axelar live became operational, and yield-bearing issued assets were bridged onto the XRPL. Currently, Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZKP) appear to be a key enabler for trust-minimized bridging.

On the application side, existing XRPL projects and wallets doubled down. Apps became more polished, with new feature-rich and better integrations, while no new app took over the community. 

At the same time, tokenization stood out as one of the strongest verticals. RLUSD was a major milestone, complemented by smaller launches of other stablecoins and tokenized funds. The distribution channel of these assets needs a lot of work, which directly ties back to application-layer development. That’s why this year should be viewed as the foundation for 2026.

How Fee Destruction Changes Economic Incentives
Ripple’s XRP is designed to compete in low-fee markets and has built programmable economics. According to Xfinancebull, every transaction fee is destroyed; it is not paid to validators,  no middleman, and there is no inflation loop.

This is because XRPL is designed to scale global payment rails, not enrich toll collectors. That’s why XRP is one of the few chains where volume is value, not congestion. Xfinancebull stated that this isn’t a trading feature, but it’s a monetary policy shift hidden at the protocol layer.

XRP trading at $1.86 on the 1D chart | Source: XRPUSDT on Tradingview.com
Featured image from Pxfuel, chart from Tradingview.com

TL;DR

Ethereum trades in a clear bearish trend, below all key moving averages (EMA 20/50/200).
Key resistance is at $3,050–$3,100; support is at $2,924–$2,950, with $2,800 as critical.
RSI is near oversold but shows no reversal, and MACD confirms downside momentum.

Ethereum (ETH) ends December 30 in a bearish daily trend, despite brief intraday advances. Price trades below the EMA 20/50/200, which maintains a lower-range bias and caps recovery attempts around $3,000–$3,080. Rebounds meet sellers inside that band, a signal of short-term seller control.

The broader crypto market shows weak volume into year-end and muted volatility. Sentiment gauges sit in fear or indecision, a context that often precedes sharp moves when liquidity returns.

The technical map offers clear reference points
On resistance, first supply rests at $3,000–$3,050; above it, traders look to $3,100–$3,150 for added confirmation. On support, the $2,924–$2,950 band acts as tactical containment; $2,800 draws focus as psychological and technical support. A firm break below $2,800 can quicken selling toward $2,600–$2,500.

The daily RSI drifts toward the low area near 30. That read signals early oversold conditions and leaves room for short-lived technical bounces. Even so, the oscillator does not confirm a trend reversal. The MACD holds below zero, aligned with seller momentum and with moving averages stacked above price.

On daily time frames, many operators mark a bear flag under construction. The pattern favors bearish continuation if price validates with rising volume on a channel break. Repeated rejection around $3,030–$3,080 reinforces the view of active supply on rallies.

Directional profiles prioritize risk control around the core zones: aggressive longs only trigger on $3,050–$3,100 reclaim with a daily close and expanding volume; on the downside, clean breaks under $2,800 open room toward $2,600–$2,500. Range traders scalp bounces between $2,924–$2,950 and $3,000–$3,050, using tight stops due to thin holiday liquidity.

Total crypto capitalization retakes the $3 trillion mark, yet ETH still lags under key ceilings. Intra-day relative strength improves on select sessions; however, the background bias stays bearish while price fails to retake the EMA 50 and hold above $3,100.

ETH remains in a descending range with seller pressure in charge. The market asks for decisive acceptance above $3,050–$3,100 to improve bias. A break of $2,800 adds risk of extension toward $2,600–$2,500. Until moving averages turn up and momentum shifts, the base case stays defensive, with room for brief relief rallies rather than sustained trends.

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) remains stuck below $90,000 even as gold and silver hit record highs, but a major shift in derivatives positioning could soon help reverse the trend.

What Happened: In his latest podcast, Trader Mayne said on his latest podcast that Bitcoin is in a period of suppressed volatility that is likely to end as 2026 begins.

He pointed to the expiration of a record $27 billion in crypto options on Deribit as a key catalyst.

Heavy options positioning had "gamma-pinned" Bitcoin between $85,000 and $90,000.

With much of that exposure now cleared, Mayne believes the constraint on price has eased, setting the stage for a decisive move.

Whales and Retail

On-chain data shows a growing split between large and small holders.

Whales and firms such as MicroStrategy continue to accumulate, while smaller wallets are selling amid prolonged extreme fear.

Mayne views Bitcoin's underperformance versus gold, silver and equities as a temporary disconnect rather than a structural shift.

Also Read: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Dogecoin Pause Ahead Of FOMC Minutes Release

What's Next: Mayne does not expect a straight-line bull market in 2026. He anticipates a strong start to the year, potentially with Bitcoin reclaiming its yearly open and pushing toward $100,000, followed by a weaker second half.

His strategy is to use any early rally to reduce spot exposure, anticipating a deeper downturn later that could create a longer-term buying opportunity once broad monetary stimulus returns.

He also expects U.S. equities to make one final push higher, with the S&P 500 potentially nearing 7,000, a move that could help pull Bitcoin higher in a final "risk-on" rally.

Read Next:

Bitcoin 2026 Price Predictions: Who’s Bullish, Who’s Bearish, And Why?
Image: Shutterstock

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TL;DR

XRP trades around $1.8 after a July peak, staying below the 14-day and 30-day EMAs as lower highs and lows persist.
Volume rises in a controlled way on declines, pointing to systematic distribution, while the lack of high-volume reversal candles shows buyers remain cautious.
The $1.75 to $1.80 band is pivotal; a daily close below it targets $1.60 to $1.62, while $1.95 to $2.00 and $2.50 cap any meaningful recovery.

XRP is still trading around $1.8 and the tape remains heavy, with sellers dictating pace as price hovers just above a make-or-break support band. Since the July peak, the market has printed a steady sequence of lower highs and lower lows, and every bounce has looked more like relief than recovery. The chart continues to sit below the 14-day and 30-day EMAs, both sloping down and converging, reinforcing supply overhead. The downtrend has become the operating environment, leaving participants focused less on upside catalysts and more on whether support can hold through the next sessions.

Structure, volume, and the levels that matter next
Price structure is confirming ongoing weakness. XRP continues to trade below the EMA 14 and EMA 30, a classic bearish signal across short and medium horizons. Both averages are tilting lower and compressing toward each other, which typically means rallies are meeting supply quickly. Repeated attempts to lift have stalled, and the market has not produced a convincing higher high to challenge the trend. Upside probes are being sold rather than sustained, keeping attention on discipline, position sizing, and the integrity of nearby support. That posture signals buyers are cautious and sellers control the tape.

Volume behavior adds the second layer of confirmation. Down moves have arrived with steady, controlled increases in activity, not a single capitulation spike, which points to distribution executed with intent. At the same time, the market has not printed strong, high-volume bullish reversal candles near recent lows, implying buyers remain hesitant to step in aggressively. This combination keeps the probability of a clean trend reversal low in the near term. Systematic selling is replacing panic, but it is still selling, and that nuance matters for timing entries and risk controls as price tests key zones.

The immediate decision point is the $1.75 to $1.80 support zone, where XRP is currently parked. A daily close below that band would likely accelerate downside pressure toward $1.60 to $1.62, with $1.40 flagged as the final major medium-term support. On the upside, $1.95 to $2.00 is the first meaningful resistance cluster, reinforced by the 30-day EMA, and a decisive close above $2.50 would be needed to invalidate the bearish structure. Until resistance is reclaimed, downside breaks remain the path of least friction, keeping the bias negative. Stabilization is tentative, and rebounds still look corrective.

Michael Novogratz, founder and chief executive of Galaxy Digital, says crypto companies remain tightly tied to Bitcoin’s price and are unlikely to fully break that link for another three to four years.

Speaking about Galaxy’s business model, Novogratz said that even diversified crypto firms cannot escape market cycles yet, because most of their revenues are still directly linked to digital asset prices.

“If Bitcoin falls 30%, your revenue falls 30%,” he said, pointing to asset management, staking, and trading businesses where income is calculated as a percentage of the underlying crypto asset.

Why Price Dependence Still MattersNovogratz explained that even if a crypto firm held no digital assets on its balance sheet, it would still feel the impact of price swings. Staking rewards shrink when token prices drop, trading activity slows, and asset management fees decline alongside valuations.

This strong correlation, he said, makes the crypto industry very different from traditional financial firms that have broader and more stable revenue streams.

Data Centers Offer a Partial BufferGalaxy has started to reduce its exposure to crypto price swings by expanding into data centers and infrastructure. Novogratz said the data center business is now as important, or even more valuable, than Galaxy’s crypto operations from a market capitalization perspective.

Because infrastructure follows a different cycle and has different capital needs, Novogratz said Galaxy could eventually split into two separate businesses. That decision, however, remains under review.

Crypto Could Surprise in 2026Despite crypto’s recent under performance, Novogratz said he is not bearish. He also expects easier monetary policy ahead, with the U.S. Federal Reserve likely to cut rates. A weaker dollar, he said, could support risk assets, including crypto, over time.

Novogratz said crypto has lagged behind assets like gold and silver, which have already seen strong rallies. That gap, he believes, creates the possibility of a sharp move higher once momentum returns.

“The painful trade may actually be crypto going higher, not lower,” he said, adding that a clear break above key levels would change sentiment quickly. Novogratz said the broader setup for 2026 looks constructive, especially as investment in crypto infrastructure continues to grow.

For now, he said, crypto companies remain tied to Bitcoin’s price. But over time, as infrastructure businesses scale and revenue sources diversify, that dependence should gradually weaken.

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