Market Signal Briefing

Ocean Power Technologies Inc (NYSE-A:OPTT) earlier this week reported third-quarter results highlighting a record backlog, which the company said underpins near-term revenue growth and validates market demand for its solutions.

Chief executive Philipp Stratmann told Proactive that the backlog consists of contracted purchase orders already secured, which are expected to convert into revenue as performance obligations are met. He emphasised that this is not indicative demand but firm commitments from customers.

A significant portion of the backlog is tied to a multi-system order from the US Department of Homeland Security, supporting Coast Guard deployment. Stratmann noted that fulfilment is already underway, with systems expected to ship within days and installations to begin within weeks, signalling rapid revenue conversion.

The company has also taken steps to improve execution timelines by building inventory ahead of demand. Stratmann said Ocean Power Technologies Inc had begun preparing buoy systems months before receiving the formal purchase order, enabling faster delivery once contracts were finalised. He added that maintaining ready inventory is critical to meeting customer requirements, particularly for short-notice deployments.

Looking ahead, the company is advancing its international expansion strategy by pre-staging inventory in key regions. This approach is designed to reduce logistical delays and better serve customers in high-demand markets.

The Middle East remains an area of focus, with personnel and assets already deployed in the UAE. Stratmann said the company is engaged in ongoing discussions حول applications such as port security, shipping lane monitoring and maritime inspections. The established regional presence positions the company to respond quickly to operational needs and support continuity in critical infrastructure.

Stratmann highlighted that the company’s broader strategy is delivering measurable outcomes, with pipeline opportunities converting into backlog and subsequently into revenue. He stated that this trend is expected to continue, supported by demand across both defence and commercial sectors.

The company’s ability to secure contracts, execute quickly and expand geographically is likely to act as a catalyst for further growth, particularly as governments and industries increase investment in maritime security and autonomous systems.

Silhouette of business people negotiating at meeting table

getty

Boaz Weinstein is a name many CEF investors know. He’s an activist investor who’s targeted CEFs in the past, particularly those he sees as underperforming.

Now, another closed-end fund (CEF) investor is adopting Weinstein’s tactics—and turning them on two of the activist’s own funds. This investor’s goal? Wipe out the discounts to net asset value (NAV, or the value of their underlying portfolios) on these two funds, and in doing so drive their prices higher.

It’s a fascinating story, and one that shows how, in the small world of CEFs, skilled activists sometimes turn their attention to each other.

Let’s back up for a moment.

In case you’ve missed it, Weinstein’s firm, Saba Capital Management, has been in the news because, as I wrote a week ago, they’ve taken a break from CEFs to target private-credit funds. And as we discussed in that article, the criticism of private credit lately has been highlighting the value of our CEFs as a source of high, stable dividends.

Weinstein has rightly been pointing out that private-credit funds are underdelivering and a source of rising risk. His target has been a cluster of funds managed by Blue Owl Capital, which also runs Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC), a business development company (BDC) that leans toward private credit.

If we compare Blue Owl’s performance (in blue below) with index funds tracking the S&P 500 (in purple) and the BDC market—in the form of the VanEck BDC Income ETF (BIZD), in orange—you can see what Weinstein means:

MORE FOR YOU

OBDC Lags

Ycharts

Saba’s ApproachThe strategy Saba is taking toward these funds fits the culture I’ve observed from talking to people who work for the firm: adversarial, tough and results-driven. But it’s also worth noting that Saba’s own funds have underperformed, opening the door for other investors to take aim at them.

Saba manages two CEFs, both of which trade at discounts far bigger than the 7.7% average discount among all CEFs tracked by my CEF Insider service. Let’s start with the 15.7%-yielding Saba Capital Income & Opportunities Fund (BRW), in blue below:

BRW Lags

Ycharts

Here we see that, since Saba took over BRW, the fund (in blue) has outperformed the BDC benchmark VanEck BDC Income ETF (BIZD), in orange. But it’s still delivered less than half of the S&P 500’s return (in purple). This is why BRW trades at a 15.5% discount as of this writing, and that discount has been widening.

It’s a similar story at the 8.6%-yielding Saba Capital Income & Opportunities Fund II (SABA):

SABA Lags

Ycharts

For a while, SABA (in blue above) was outrunning the S&P 500, but its aggressive investments in crypto (Grayscale Ethereum Classic Trust is its second-largest holding as of this writing) mean its short-term gains have been fizzling lately.

We should also note that about 20% of SABA was in private funds as of the end of October 2025, and the fund warns shareholders that they may be at risk of owning private credit if they own SABA.

That partly explains why SABA’s discount has also widened in recent months:

SABA Discount

Ycharts

To be fair, comparing either of these funds to the S&P 500 and BIZD is a little “apples to oranges,” but for investors looking for returns and dividends, that may not matter.

The Gabelli ResponseHere’s where our “other” activist comes in.

That would be GAMCO Investors, run by well-known value investor Mario Gabelli. GAMCO is what I’d call a more traditional CEF firm, and it’s spotted an opportunity to target Saba’s funds in a similar way that Saba has targeted CEFs in the past.

And one of Gabelli’s funds stands out now, for the opposite reason as SABA and BRW do: This one trades at a massive premium to NAV:

GUT Premium

Ycharts

Here we see the 77% premium on the Gabelli Utility Trust (GUT). The fund, which holds major US utility stocks like NextEra Energy (NEE), Duke Energy (DUK) and ONEOK (OKE), has surged to that big premium in recent years.

That’s great for anyone who bought in back in the mid-2010s, when GUT traded at much smaller premiums (in the 7% to 10% range), as they can now sell at this premium.

In short, GAMCO has done for GUT what Saba aims to do for other funds: boost their valuations, thereby delivering strong returns for investors.

GAMCO aims to do this for SABA and BRW by nominating David Schachter, vice-president of GUT, to the boards of both funds. In other words, Gabelli is taking a page out of Saba’s activist playbook to influence the performance of Saba’s own CEFs.

Will it work? Tough to say, but it’s not impossible, especially if Schachter brings Gabelli’s value-investing approach to Saba (which could, among other things, curtail some of Saba’s crypto and private-credit investments).

That, of course, would be good for shareholders in the long term (again, if Schachter’s appointment comes to pass). But now is not the time to pounce in hopes that this happens, since it’s still a long time until this story plays out. No matter what transpires, at least between now and the time the nomination is decided, both BRW and SABA continue to entail above-average risk.

Michael Foster is the Lead Research Analyst for Contrarian Outlook. For more great retirement income ideas, click here for our latest report “Indestructible Income: 5 Bargain Funds with Steady 9.1% Dividends.”

Did you buy SMR Class A common stock between May 13, 2025, and November 6, 2025?

Affected NuScale Power Corporation Investor Summary

Who: NuScale Power Corporation (NYSE: SMR) What: Securities fraud class action lawsuit filed Class Period: May 13, 2025, through November 6, 2025 Deadline to Seek Lead Plaintiff Status: April 20, 2026 Key Lawsuit Allegations: Material misstatements and/or omissions concerning the company's commercialization strategy for its nuclear power generation projects and development. Investor Action: Contact Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP (www.ktmc.com) for recovery options at no cost to investor , /PRNewswire/ -- Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP (www.ktmc.com), a nationally recognized securities litigation law firm, informs investors that a securities fraud class action lawsuit has been filed against NuScale Power Corporation (NuScale) (NYSE: SMR) on behalf of those who purchased or acquired NuScale Class A common stock between May 13, 2025, and November 6, 2025, inclusive. The lawsuit is filed in the United States District Court for the District of Oregon and is captioned Truedson v. NuScale Power Corporation, et al, Case No. 3:26-cv-00328 (D. Or.).  Investors have until April 20, 2026, to file for lead plaintiff status. 

CONTACT KTMC TO DISCUSS YOUR LEGAL RIGHTS:    
If you purchased or acquired NuScale Class A common stock and have lost money on your investment, you are encouraged to contact KTMC attorney Jonathan Naji, Esq. at:

📞 (484) 270-1453
📧 [email protected]
🌐 https://www.ktmc.com/smr-nuscale-power-corporation-class-action-lawsuit?utm_source=PR_Newswire&utm_medium=pressrelease&utm_campaign=smr&mktm=PR

There is no cost or obligation to speak with an attorney.

Learn more about NuScale Power Corporation on YouTube:

 NuScale Power Corporation  Securities Class Action Lawsuit (long video)  NuScale Power Corporation Securities Class Action Lawsuit (short video) NUSCALE POWER CORPORATION CLASS ACTION LAWSUIT - COMPLAINT ALLEGATION SUMMARY:
The complaint alleges that, throughout the Class Period, Defendants made false and/or misleading statements and/or failed to disclose that: (1) ENTRA1 Energy LLC ("ENTRA1") had never built, financed, or operated any significant projects– let alone projects in the highly technical and complicated field of nuclear power generation during its entire operating history; (2) NuScale had entrusted its commercialization, distribution, and deployment of its NuScale Power Module and hundreds of millions of dollars of NuScale capital to an entity that lacked any significant prior experience owning, financing, or operating nuclear energy generation facilities; (3) the purported experience and qualifications attributed to ENTRA1 by Defendants during the Class Period in fact referred to the purported experience and qualifications of the principals of the Habboush Group, a distinct entity without significant experience in the field of nuclear power generation; and (4) as a result, NuScale's commercialization strategy was exposed to material, undisclosed risks of failure, delays, regulatory challenges, or other negative setbacks.

Why did NuScale's Stock Drop?
On November 6, 2025, NuScale surprised investors by revealing that the company's general and administrative expenses had ballooned more than 3,000% to $519 million during its third fiscal quarter, up from $17 million in the prior year period, due largely to NuScale's payment of $495 million to ENTRA1 for its TVA agreement. As a result, NuScale's quarterly net loss skyrocketed to $532 million, up from $46 million in the prior year period. On this news, the price of NuScale Class A common stock declined by $5.45 per share, or approximately 14.4%, from a close of $37.91 per share on November 5, 2025, to close at $32.46 on November 6, 2025.

WHAT SMR INVESTORS CAN DO NOW:

File to be lead plaintiff by April 20, 2026. Contact KTMC for a free case evaluation. All representation is on a contingency fee basis, there is no cost to you. Retain counsel of choice or take no action. THE LEAD PLAINTIFF PROCESS FOR NUSCALE POWER CORPORATION INVESTORS:
NuScale investors may, no later than April 20, 2026, seek to be appointed as a lead plaintiff representative of the class through Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP or other counsel, or may choose to do nothing and remain an absent class member. A lead plaintiff is a representative party who acts on behalf of all class members in directing the litigation.  The lead plaintiff is usually the investor or small group of investors who have the largest financial interest and who are also adequate and typical of the proposed class of investors. The lead plaintiff selects counsel to represent the lead plaintiff and the class and these attorneys, if approved by the court, are lead or class counsel. Your ability to share in any recovery is not affected by the decision of whether or not to serve as a lead plaintiff.

Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP encourages NuScale investors to contact the firm for more information.

ABOUT KESSLER TOPAZ MELTZER & CHECK, LLP (KTMC):    
Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP (KTMC) is a leading U.S. plaintiff-side law firm focused on securities-fraud class actions and global investor protection. The firm represents individual investors as well as institutions, such as major pension funds, asset managers, and international investors. KTMC has led some of the largest recoveries in securities litigation and has been recognized by peers and the legal media with numerous accolades, including The National Law Journal's Plaintiff's Hot List and Trailblazers in Plaintiffs' Law, BTI Consulting Group's Honor Roll of Most Feared Law Firms, The Legal Intelligencer's Class Action Firm of the Year, Lawdragon's Leading Plaintiff Financial Lawyers, and Law360's Titans of the Plaintiffs Bar.  The firm operates globally with offices in Pennsylvania and California.  KTMC has recovered over $25 billion for our clients and the classes they represent.  For more information about Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP, please visit www.ktmc.com.  The complaint in this matter was not filed by KTMC.

CONTACT:
Jonathan Naji, Esq.
(484) 270-1453
280 King of Prussia Road
Radnor, PA 19087
[email protected]

May be considered attorney advertising in certain jurisdictions.  Past results do not guarantee future outcomes.

SOURCE Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP

Ethereum is showing stronger network activity as active addresses surged 121% in three days. At the same time, price is pressing against a key triangle resistance, with $2,221 now acting as the level that could decide the next short term move.

Ethereum active addresses jump 121%Ethereum active addresses rose from 381,202 to 841,404 between the 16th and 19th, based on the chart shared by Ali Charts using Santiment data. That sharp increase points to a strong rise in onchain activity over a short period.

Ethereum Active Addresses. Source: Santiment via Ali Charts

Moreover, the move suggests more wallets interacted with the network through transfers, trading, DeFi activity, or other transactions. When active addresses rise this fast, it usually shows broader user participation rather than price action alone.

At the same time, this metric does not confirm whether the activity came from new users, returning users, or larger holders moving funds across wallets. Still, the scale of the increase shows Ethereum saw much heavier network usage during that stretch, which can signal stronger short term demand and rising market attention.

Ethereum triangle keeps $2,221 in focusEthereum is moving inside a tight triangle on the 15 minute chart, which shows price compression after a sharp drop. The setup places immediate resistance near $2,221, while support sits around the lower edge of the pattern near the $2,130 area.

Ethereum Triangle Breakout Setup: Source: More Crypto Online

Moreover, the chart shows that a break above $2,221 could open the way toward higher resistance levels near $2,156, $2,192, and then $2,221 again as the upper target zone. However, if Ethereum fails to break out and instead loses triangle support, the chart points to downside levels near $2,078 and $2,001.

For now, the structure shows indecision rather than confirmation. Therefore, $2,221 remains the key trigger level, because a clean move above it would strengthen the case for a short term recovery, while rejection would keep downside risk in place.

What would Morgan Stanley's involvement in Bitcoin mean for the market? Well, some are saying it's a massive bet.

International investment bank Morgan Stanley has taken yet another step toward launching its very own spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). The institution filed a second amendment for the proposed product, signaling its growing commitment to digital assets. It could also mark a shift in how major financial institutions participate in the crypto market.

Comments from Strategy’s CEO Phong Le indicate that the move could be indicative of $160 billion in capital flowing into the market – approximately three times the current size of BlackRock’s IBIT ETF.

From Distributor to Issuer Morgan Stanley has historically served as a distribution channel for third-party Bitcoin ETFs, offering its clients access to products launched by other firms (such as BlackRock’s IBIT). The new filings, however, indicate a strategic shift toward becoming a direct issuer of crypto investment vehicles, starting with BTC.

This transition could provide for greater control over the product’s design, client exposure, fees, and more, while also positioning it a lot more competitively against other major asset managers who have entered the space.

It reflects a broader trend among traditional financial institutions, which seek a deeper involvement in digital asset markets rather than simply facilitating access to them.

Implications for the Bitcoin Market Commenting on the most recent filing was Phong Le, CEO of Bitcoin-oriented Strategy (the world’s largest BTC corporate holder), who said that it represents a “massive Bitcoin bet.”

He outlined that Morgan Stanley currently manages roughly $8 trillion in wealth. The institution also recommends 0-4% bitcoin allocation.

He speculated that a modest 2% allocation would represent $160 billion of inflows, which is roughly three times the size of the current holdings behind BlackRock’s IBIT ETF.

Morgan Stanley Wealth Management oversees about $8 trillion in AUM and recommends 0–4% bitcoin allocation. A 2% allocation would represent $160 billion, ~3X the size of IBIT. $MSBT: Monster Bitcoin. https://t.co/TNYLYRXPiz

— Phong Le (@phongle) March 20, 2026

Following the recent market trend, the XRP price has maintained its hold on an important trendline over the years. This trendline leans bullish, and as long as the cryptocurrency holds above it, the likelihood of a recovery remains high. However, a break below this multi-year trendline could signal doom, with crypto analyst CrypFlow forecasting how low the digital asset could go before eventually finding a bottom.

Bears Threaten XRP’s Multi-Year Trendline According to crypto analyst CrypFlow, the XRP multi-year trendline that began back in the year 2017 is currently still in play. In fact, with the price trading well above the $1.2 level, it continues to hold up well. So far, this has suggested that bulls still have some strength left, and this trendline has been a beacon.

From here on out, the XRP price would only need to actually complete a breakout to maintain its uptrend. This breakout would not only need to happen, but it would need to do so with momentum. As CrypFlow explains, for momentum to follow, the XRP price needs to do two things.

The first of these is that the XRP price needs to break out of the descending resistance. This descending resistance had begun back in 2025, continuing on into 2026. As long as this resistance remains, the price remains bearish. But a break towards $2 invalidates it.

Next on the list is that the XRP RSI downtrend needs to be broken as well. A breakout above $2 will complete this, ensuring that there is enough momentum for the cryptocurrency to follow. Such a move, the crypto analyst believes, would send the XRP price toward its 2018 highs of $3.8.

Source: X However, in the case that the bulls are unable to complete a breakout within moments, then the bears could take control once again. Such a scenario would see the price lose its multi-year trend and eventually fall below $1.

Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Price Is Showing Dangerous Weakness, Here’s Why

Once this happens, then there is little cushion left for the cryptocurrency. As the price falls, the analyst highlights what they call the ‘discount zone,’ where XRP would be seemingly cheap to buy, and this lies around the $0.6-$0.8 level. Nevertheless, once the decline is over, the price is expected to rebound again.

Price struggles amid market downturn | Source: XRPUSDT on TradingView.com Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

A long-dormant Bitcoin wallet dating back to 2012 has resumed activity after more than 14 years, drawing attention during a period of weakening market demand. On-chain data shows the address holds 2,100 BTC valued at approximately $148 million. The wallet executed a small transaction of about $55, marking its first activity since receiving the funds when Bitcoin traded near $6.6. At that time, the total value of the holdings was roughly $14,000.

The reactivation comes as early Bitcoin holders increase selling activity. Blockchain data indicates that over 1,650 BTC, worth more than $117 million, was recently offloaded by long-term holders. These transactions followed a shift in market sentiment after the Federal Reserve signaled a slower pace of rate cuts, which contributed to a pullback in Bitcoin’s price from recent highs.

Bitcoin is currently trading near $70,000 after falling below $69,000 earlier in the week and recovering modestly. The asset had reached a local high near $76,000 before the decline. The rebound has provided short-term stability, but broader conditions continue to show limited demand strength.

Bitcoin On-Chain Metrics Show Profit-Taking PressureRecent on-chain indicators suggest that upward momentum has been met with consistent selling. The 24-hour moving average of net realized profit and loss rose to approximately $17 million per hour before price momentum weakened. This pattern has appeared across multiple attempts to move higher, indicating that profit-taking continues to absorb buying pressure at elevated levels.

Source: Glassnode

Transaction activity has also increased during price declines, reflecting repositioning among market participants. Higher coin movement typically signals adjustments in positioning rather than sustained accumulation. Combined with ongoing macro uncertainty, this has reduced the market’s ability to maintain upward trends.

Sentiment indicators reflect the same trend. The crypto Fear and Greed Index remains in the “fear” zone, showing that participants remain cautious despite recent attempts to stabilize price above key support levels.

BTC Derivatives Data Reflects Defensive PositioningOptions market data provides further insight into current positioning. At-the-money implied volatility has declined, with one-week contracts falling from 70% to 53%, while longer-term volatility has also decreased. This suggests reduced expectations for large short-term BTC price swings even as uncertainty remains in the broader market.

At the same time, the 25 delta skew has shifted back into the 15% to 20% range, indicating stronger demand for downside protection. The shift followed Bitcoin’s rejection near the $75,000 level and reflects increased caution among traders. Flow data shows that put options accounted for approximately 30.7% of activity, compared to about 10% for calls, confirming a preference for hedging against further declines.

Source: X

The put-to-call ratio also indicated limited momentum above $72,000, where options flows were dominated by protective positioning. As price pulled back, short-lived call buying appeared but did not alter the broader defensive stance.

Gamma Unwind Signals Reduced SupportAdditional derivatives data shows a decline in gamma exposure near key levels. Short gamma around the $75,000 strike dropped from $3.9 billion to $2.4 billion within two days, representing a $1.5 billion reduction. This change indicates that positions were closed as price moved away from the strike, reducing the need for dealer hedging activity.

Source: Glassnode

Lower gamma exposure can lead to weaker support during price moves, as fewer hedging flows are present to stabilize volatility. This dynamic has coincided with Bitcoin’s recent pullback and reduced ability to sustain BTC upward momentum after failed breakout attempts.

Bitcoin has since returned to its previous trading range after failing to hold above $75,000. With demand conditions showing signs of exhaustion and derivatives positioning turning defensive, attention remains on support levels near current prices. If these levels weaken, the next area of interest is around $65,000.

1 mins mins

DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.

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Blockchain Journalist    Web3 Content Strategist    DeFi Writer    Content Strategist Sophia Panel is a cryptocurrency journalist with 10+ years of experience. She reports on token listings, stablecoins, exchanges, and market trends, in plain, clear language. At Coincu.com, she helps readers spot what is moving and why, turning complex trading data into simple insights. Her work often features lessons from top fintech firms and rising crypto startups.

"Telling powerful stories that move the crypto world. I bridge the gap between blockchain innovation and public understanding through sharp, engaging content."

Gender: Female

Date of Birth: July 2, 1990

Place of Birth: Mumbai, India

Company: Coincu

Website: Coincu.com

Email: [email protected]

Experience 10+ years in digital marketing and blockchain journalism

Former strategist at Polygon and journalist at WazirX Insights

Now a proud content contributor at Coincu.com

Specializes in crypto content strategy, SEO, and web3 storytelling

Education Background Master’s in Digital Marketing – Indian Institute of Management (IIM)

Google SEO Specialist – Certificate Program

Work Experience 2020–2024: Blockchain Content Strategist, Polygon

2018–2020: Blockchain Journalist, WazirX Insights

2015–2018: Digital Marketing Specialist, Local SEO India

Achievements Led SEO campaigns that boosted traffic by 300% for major Web3 platforms Published over 500 blockchain-focused articles across media and protocol blogs Recognized for bridging Web2 audiences into the Web3 world through accessible writing Work Style Creative and data-driven Strategic thinker with strong storytelling instincts Collaborative and goal-oriented Focused on user engagement and education Skills Blockchain Content Strategy

SEO & Web Analytics

Public Relations & Community Growth

Longform & Thought Leadership Writing

Additional Information She has been invited as a speaker at Indian Web3 Summits and global blockchain forums Sophia is passionate about educating underserved communities about blockchain potential Books "How to Read the Market Like a Pro" - Published on Google Books Reference Links:

Website: coincu.com Author's profile: Sophia Panel - coincu.com Sophia Panel 's Social Media Platforms

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XRP (XRP) failed to mount a decisive rally despite Ripple’s expanded push into Brazil, with the token largely consolidating in the $1.40–$1.45 range as thinning volume signaled muted follow-through from traders.

As of March 21 (UTC), XRP changed hands at around $1.4486, up roughly 0.13% over the prior day. However, 24-hour trading volume fell to about $1.67 billion—down 28.8%—suggesting that the market’s attention has cooled even as Ripple highlighted new infrastructure initiatives. XRP’s market capitalization stood near $88.86 billion, keeping it in fourth place among major cryptocurrencies, but the broader trend remains heavy: the token is down 25.63% over the past 60 days and 24.55% over the past 90 days. Shorter windows show a modest bounce—up 3.98% over seven days and 1.74% over 30 days—yet price action continues to look indecisive.

The muted reaction comes as Ripple rolls out what it calls a full financial stack in Brazil. The company said it launched services spanning payments, custody, stablecoins, prime brokerage, and treasury management on March 17 (UTC). Ripple characterized the initiative as its largest single-market service deployment to date, noting collaboration with six partners and an ongoing application process for a VASP (virtual asset service provider) license.

On-chain activity cited in the report points to XRP’s role inside the XRPL DEX, where an automatic bridging mechanism facilitated an estimated 92% of total trades. Over a 24-hour period, there were 477 bridging events, including 67 tied to swaps between Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin and a Brazilian real-pegged stablecoin, BBRL, associated with Braza Bank. Ripple’s custody offering is also being positioned as a pillar of the Brazil buildout, with partners including CRX and Justoken collectively managing more than $100 million in tokenized assets, according to the figures referenced.

Still, observers say Ripple’s messaging continues to emphasize enterprise tooling and infrastructure rather than explicitly linking these developments to the token’s value capture. That gap—between ecosystem growth and XRP’s price response—has long been a focal point for market participants trying to assess whether adoption of XRPL services translates into sustained demand for XRP beyond speculative cycles.

From a technical perspective, XRP is trading above its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA20) near $1.43 and remains within an upward channel, but the immediate battleground is resistance around $1.4468. Analysts following the pattern highlighted in the report suggest that a confirmed breakout could open a path toward $1.85 via a symmetric triangle setup. On the downside, support is identified near $1.4256 and then $1.3218; a breakdown through those levels—particularly if bearish signals strengthen on trend indicators such as Supertrend—could increase the risk of a deeper move toward $0.76. The relative strength index (RSI) remains near neutral, offering little directional clarity.

Volume remains the key variable. The analysis referenced estimates a roughly 65% probability that the uptrend persists if turnover returns, but it also flags XRP’s historically high correlation with Bitcoin (BTC) and sensitivity to macro catalysts—including Federal Reserve policy expectations and oil-price moves—as constraints on any clean technical breakout.

Institutional flow data adds another layer of uncertainty. Since November 2025, cumulative inflows into spot XRP ETFs have totaled roughly $1.44 billion, but weekly inflows have slowed to under $2 million, suggesting that the initial surge of demand has faded. At the same time, the report notes incremental signs of traditional-finance engagement with XRPL, including filings related to a merger involving a vehicle identified as “Armada M&A 2” and a broader rise in XRPL usage stories among major financial institutions, including Deutsche Bank. In February, XRPL began compliant DEX trading frameworks aimed at supporting regulated activity and, by extension, a more robust foundation for stablecoin issuance.

The central question for markets is whether increased institutional adoption of XRPL will translate into sustained demand for XRP as a ‘bridge asset’—or whether the token continues to trade largely as a proxy for broader crypto risk appetite. For now, price remains notably detached from the positive operational headlines. Analysts cited in the report argue that a clean move above the $1.44 resistance level—paired with improving volume—could strengthen short-term rebound momentum, while failure to break higher could leave XRP vulnerable to a renewed drawdown if market conditions deteriorate.

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Bitcoin traded at $70,646 on Saturday morning at 8:30 a.m., holding within a narrow intraday range as technical indicators reflected a broadly neutral stance across key timeframes. Market participants continue to monitor consolidation near the $70,000 level as momentum signals diverge and volatility compresses.

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The Bitcoin exchange reserve has recorded its lowest-ever value, which should represent a bullish development. However, recent stablecoin reserve activity highlights a point of concern.

Exchanges Now Hold Only 13% Of BTC Supply – Details  In a QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, APTRekt reports that only 2.72 million BTC is now available on crypto exchanges. This recorded figure represents 13.60% of the circulating BTC supply and is the lowest ever value of Bitcoin exchange reserves. APTRekt states Bitcoin reached this new all-time low of exchange reserves despite a dominant selling pressure between Wednesday and Thursday, triggered by a failed price breakout at the $75,000 region.

Typically, an increase in exchange deposits indicates a rise in investors’ readiness to offload their assets on the market. Conversely, a fall in exchange reserves is regarded as a positive development, which indicates that investors are opting to move their holdings into private wallets, showing long-term confidence and anticipation of price appreciation.

Source: CryptoQuant Therefore, the new low in Bitcoin exchange reserve is to be regarded as a bullish event. However, coinciding developments in the stablecoin market paint a negative alternative scenario. Notably, Stablecoin exchange reserves were valued at $68.8 billion on March 18. However, present figures are reported to be around $68.2 billion, highlighting a withdrawal of approximately $600 million within 48 hours. 

A similar flash transaction last occurred between January 18 and January 21, preceding a massive liquidity withdrawal from the cryptocurrency market. According to APTRekt, Bitcoin usually undergoes a massive downturn during such pullouts, putting the premier cryptocurrency in danger of another price downswing if the historical pattern plays out.

Bitcoin Whale Wallets Rise By 753 Despite Price Struggles  In other news, data from Santiment reveals that market whales, i.e., wallets holding 100 BTC or more, have increased by over 753 in the past three months. Notably, this bullish development comes amid a prolonged corrective phase during which the flagship cryptocurrency has traded as low as $60,000 with a net market loss of 20.2%.

Santiment explains that this accumulation trend is one of many bullish divergences amid the present short-term price volatility, which also reflects a sustained confidence among Bitcoin major investors.  At press time, Bitcoin is valued at $70,600 after losses of 0.05% and 0.5% on the daily and weekly charts, respectively. Meanwhile, the digital asset reports a net gain of 5.95% in the past 30 days, suggesting that market action has been largely positive in recent weeks.

BTC trading at $70,619 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT chart on Tradingview.com Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.

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Semilore Faleti works as a crypto-journalist at Bitconist, providing the latest updates on blockchain developments, crypto regulations, and the DeFi ecosystem. He is a strong crypto enthusiast passionate about covering the growing footprint of blockchain technology in the financial world.

15h05 ▪ 3 min read ▪ by Eddy S.

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In March 2026, a number shook the markets: American debt exceeded $39 trillion. A dizzying acceleration that raises an urgent question: is the traditional financial system running out of steam? In this context, bitcoin resurfaces as an alternative solution.

In Brief American debt has crossed $39 trillion, creating major risks for savers’ economic stability. Bitcoin becomes a credible alternative to guard against inflation and monetary devaluation. Investing in bitcoin in 2026 requires an adapted strategy to profit while limiting risks. American debt has crossed a historic threshold, rising from $37 trillion to $39 trillion in less than a year. This rapid growth is not insignificant. Indeed, it reflects a structural dependence on borrowing, with direct consequences on interest rates, inflation, and dollar stability. According to the Government Accountability Office, such high debt could lead to:

An increase in borrowing costs; A decrease in wages; An increase in basic goods prices. The projections are alarming. Interest payments on the debt are expected to exceed $1 trillion per year, further deepening deficits. This vicious cycle—debt, interest, new borrowing—risks limiting the government’s ability to respond in a crisis. In this regard, markets once indifferent are beginning to worry because this trajectory is no longer cyclical but structural.

Bitcoin: The answer to the collapse of the American economy? As American debt reaches new heights, bitcoin emerges as a credible alternative. Unlike fiat currencies, bitcoin is limited to 21 million units, making it a natural hedge against inflation and monetary devaluation. Without a central bank to control issuance, it offers rare independence in a world where states print ever more money.

Furthermore, institutions are beginning to recognize it. Morgan Stanley, for example, has integrated bitcoin into its investment strategies, while Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, highlights its role in value preservation. Compared to gold or the dollar, BTC presents unique advantages: liquidity, accessibility, and growth potential.

However, some economists believe that American debt, although high, remains manageable thanks to the strength of the dollar and market confidence. Others, on the other hand, see bitcoin as a necessity to guard against a collapse of the traditional financial system. One thing is certain, this debate is far from over.

The $39 trillion American debt marks a turning point in global economic history. Faced with this reality, bitcoin imposes itself as an alternative solution, offering protection against inflation and devaluation. What do you think, will BTC manage to establish itself as a universal safe haven?

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Eddy S.

The world is evolving and adaptation is the best weapon to survive in this undulating universe. Originally a crypto community manager, I am interested in anything that is directly or indirectly related to blockchain and its derivatives. To share my experience and promote a field that I am passionate about, nothing is better than writing informative and relaxed articles.

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The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.

12h20 ▪ 4 min read ▪ by Luc Jose A.

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The weekly RSI of bitcoin returns to an area that the market watches closely. This signal recalls a configuration that appeared at the end of the 2022 bear market, without yet providing proof of a reversal. In a still fragile context, this technical reading reignites the debate on bitcoin’s trajectory and the market’s ability to turn an early signal into a lasting recovery.

In brief The weekly RSI of bitcoin returns to a technical zone closely watched by several analysts. This signal recalls a configuration observed at the end of the 2022 bear market, before a prolonged bullish phase. Trader Jelle believes that a higher low on the RSI could indicate the approach of a long-term bottom. This reading remains cautious, as the market has not yet confirmed a clear price recovery. Bitcoin RSI revives a long-watched signal Bitcoin sends a technical signal that could mark a long-term bottom, as its weekly RSI returns to an area deemed sensitive by several analysts. Trader Jelle sees the possible formation of a higher low on the indicator. This element draws attention because it suggests a potential bullish divergence between price and momentum, in a market that has not yet validated a clear recovery.

The interest of this signal also lies in its historical precedent. A comparable configuration appeared at the end of the 2022 bear market, before a bullish phase that lasted more than a year. This parallel does not confirm an identical scenario. However, it provides a useful benchmark to read the current situation and strengthens the attention paid to the evolution of the weekly RSI.

Jelle summarizes : “when bitcoin’s weekly RSI forms a higher low again, it’s time to start paying attention”. This phrase places the weekly RSI at the center of the analysis, much more than the exact shape of the next price move ; The analyst adds : “it doesn’t matter whether bitcoin marks a higher low, an equivalent low or a lower low”, before adding : “when the RSI starts to rise again, the bottom will be very close, or already reached”. This reading is presented as the most constructive technical signal of the moment on the weekly timeframe ; Bitcoin “signals a possible long-term bottom”, while still using cautious wording: it is a signal to watch, not a definitive confirmation of a reversal. The market remains fragile despite this constructive warning Jelle does not consider the current decline to be an already purged episode. He recalls that “previous bear markets all lasted about a year”, and he notes that bitcoin “reached its peak only 23 weeks ago”. His position is clear: “I’m not in a hurry to reposition myself for buying”.

This caution prevents presenting the current decline as a phase already over. Another technical figure remains under watch: a possible bear flag, interpreted as a weakness signal that could open the way to a further support break, in a configuration close to that observed in January.

The 200-week EMA, a moving average, had been reclaimed as support in March 2023, when the market was exiting its previous bearish phase. However, it was lost again last month and an analysis even described it as “unreliable”.

The signal sent by the RSI is not enough at this stage to dispel doubts about the market structure. A long-term indicator becomes interesting again, but the bitcoin price is still evolving amid figures and technical levels that prevent any clear reading of the ongoing movement.

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Luc Jose A.

Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.

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Thomasg.eth just bought big. The early Ethereum investor grabbed $19.5 million worth of ETH this week, making his first major move in months while BitMine’s Tom Lee calls time on the crypto winter.

The purchase caught traders off guard. Thomasg.eth had been pretty much silent since last year, sitting on his massive holdings without making waves. But his sudden $19.5 million buy signals something’s shifting in his strategy. Whale watchers immediately started buzzing about what comes next, especially since moves this size can shake up the whole market. The timing feels deliberate – right as sentiment starts turning positive again.

Market dynamics change fast.

What Tom Lee Sees Coming Lee’s declaration that crypto winter is over sparked heated debates across trading floors. The BitMine analyst, known for his bold calls, thinks we’re done with the prolonged slump that hammered prices and crushed investor confidence for months. His statement came during a recent industry conference where he laid out his case for a potential rebound.

“The patterns we’re seeing now mirror previous recovery phases,” Lee said at the event. He pointed to historical data showing similar setups before major bull runs, though he warned that external factors could still derail any rally. Lee’s track record of market predictions gives his words extra weight among institutional investors who often follow his guidance.

Not everyone buys it yet. Skeptics argue that one whale purchase and an analyst’s optimism don’t make a trend. But the combination has definitely stirred up interest among traders who’ve been waiting for clear signals.

Market Reaction Takes Shape Ethereum’s price jumped slightly after news of thomasg.eth’s purchase broke. The coin hit $1,850 by March 21, 2026, up from around $1,800 where it had been stuck for weeks. That’s not a massive spike, but it shows the market is paying attention to what major holders are doing.

Several exchanges reported higher Ethereum trading volumes this week. The uptick started right around when thomasg.eth made his move, suggesting his purchase might have encouraged other traders to reassess their positions. Coinbase and Binance both saw increased activity, though neither exchange confirmed any direct link to the whale’s transaction. This development aligns with Bitcoin Whale Dumps 2M Holdings as, highlighting broader market trends.

Other big investors are watching closely. Market analysts wonder if thomasg.eth’s buy will trigger copycat moves from other whales who’ve been sitting on the sidelines. So far, no other major purchases have been spotted, but that could change quickly if momentum builds.

The broader crypto community seems split on what it all means. Some see thomasg.eth’s purchase as validation of Lee’s bullish outlook. Others think it’s just one investor making a personal bet that doesn’t reflect wider market conditions. Trading forums are full of speculation about his next moves.

Thomasg.eth hasn’t said anything publicly about his strategy. His wallet activity shows the $19.5 million purchase clear as day, but he’s offered no explanation for the timing or his future plans. That silence is pretty typical for major crypto holders who prefer to let their transactions speak for themselves.

The purchase brings thomasg.eth’s total Ethereum holdings to an estimated $200 million at current prices. He’s been accumulating ETH since the early days when most people didn’t even know what cryptocurrency was. His moves carry weight because of that long track record and massive stake in Ethereum’s success.

BitMine continues pushing its optimistic narrative. Lee and his team have been highlighting technical indicators they think support a sustained recovery. They’re pointing to on-chain metrics, institutional adoption rates, and regulatory clarity as factors that could drive prices higher over the coming months.

But volatility remains the name of the game. Even with recent positive signals, crypto markets can turn on a dime based on news, regulation changes, or major investor moves. Thomasg.eth’s purchase might mark the start of something bigger, or it could end up being an isolated event that fades from memory within weeks. This development aligns with Ether Trading Volume Hits Three-Year Peak, highlighting broader market trends.

Market participants are keeping close tabs on whale wallets and exchange flows for signs of what comes next. The next few weeks will probably show whether thomasg.eth’s confidence is shared by other major holders or if he’s making a solo bet on Ethereum’s future.

Several other prominent Ethereum whales have remained unusually quiet during recent market uncertainty. Wallet addresses linked to early investors like “0x742d35Cc6634C0532925a3b8D0C8” and “vitalik.eth” show minimal trading activity over the past quarter, suggesting many large holders are still adopting a wait-and-see approach despite thomasg.eth’s bold move.

Institutional interest in Ethereum has been growing steadily through traditional finance channels. Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust saw $45 million in weekly inflows last month, while Fidelity’s crypto division reported increased client inquiries about ETH exposure. BlackRock’s recent filing for an Ethereum ETF application also signals growing institutional appetite, potentially providing the foundation Lee believes will support his recovery thesis.

Frequently Asked QuestionsHow much Ethereum did thomasg.eth buy?Thomasg.eth purchased $19.5 million worth of Ethereum this week, marking his first major transaction in months.

What did Tom Lee say about crypto winter?BitMine’s Tom Lee declared that crypto winter is over, citing historical patterns that suggest a potential market rebound.

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The Bitcoin market remains subject to high uncertainty, with bearish sentiments at heightened levels. In the last week, the premier cryptocurrency attempted another failed breakout as prices faced stiff resistance at the $75,000 level. With Bitcoin now back to around $70,000, Glassnode data on the options market shows that traders are pushing for more downside protection alongside expectations of low market volatility.

Bitcoin Open Interest Hits New ATH  – What Does It Mean? In an X post on March 20, Glassnode provides an update on the Bitcoin options market covering developments on positioning, volatility expectations, and market sentiments. In terms of positioning, the analytics platform reported that Bitcoin options Open Interest (OI) reached a new all-time high value ahead of the expected expiry order on Friday. 

Source: @glassnode on X While a rise in OI typically represents an increase in market participation, Glassnode analysts explain that this recent positioning spike may still be indicative of short-term hedging flows. However,  the after-effects of quarterly expiry on March 27 would provide more clarity on the recent positioning spike and the long-term sentiment. 

Meanwhile, the 1-week Implied Volatility (IV) declined from 70% to 53%, while options with longer maturities are also down by ~10 vols. This indicates that options are anticipating less dramatic price swings, despite the unstable macro environment.

Bitcoin Put Options In Demand As Traders Hedge Against Price Fall According to Glassnode, the Bitcoin Options Skew, which measures the demand difference between put options (bearish protection) and call options (bullish bets), has stabilized.  However, Bitcoin’s rejection at $75,000 has pushed the 25 Delta Skew into the 15-20% range, indicating increased put option demand. This development suggests a rise in market caution as options traders are paying a premium to protect against any potential downside.

Source: @glassnode on X This creeping market fear is further confirmed by the 24-hour taker flow chart, which shows that options traders’ positioning has now turned defensive. Puts Bought activity is dominating the flows chart with a 30.7% share, while Calls Bought accounts for around 20.9%. Meanwhile, the Put/Call Ratio had also indicated a potential rejection at $75,000. Put actions dominated flows activity above $72,000, indicating that traders lacked belief in the breakout. Following the pullback, traders attempted to buy the dip with a spike in call options, but it was short-lived.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $70,668 following a minor 0.33% gain in the last day. Meanwhile, daily trading volume has declined by 17.30% and is now valued at $36.67 billion.

BTC trading at $70.639 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT chart on Tradingview.com Featured image from Flickr, chart from Tradingview

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

XRP's price valuation remains the subject of discussion in social media circles, with many predicting what its price could be in the days ahead. An X user had tweeted, "$15 XRP," to which XRP critic "Scams are bad" replied in the negative.

Ripple CTO Emeritus David Schwartz joined the discussion, replying, "Yes if he's buying." This he gave as a jab to the critic while still highlighting the possibility of XRP reaching this price target on immense buying from retail and institutional investors.

Yes if he's buying.

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— David 'JoelKatz' Schwartz (@JoelKatz) March 21, 2026 At a current price of $1.44, XRP might need to rise about 941% to reach a $15 price target.

In prior X discussions about the XRP price, Schwartz used the analogy of his early Ethereum sale, where he sold 40,000 ETH at $1.05 each, a decision that he regrets. Schwartz stated he might not be in the best position to make price predictions, given this, but anything remains likely in the crypto space.

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In one of the X conversations, Schwartz responded that "if anyone thought XRP was going to be $1.50 in 2025, they wouldn't have sold it for a penny in 2017. I sold 40,000 ETH at $1.05 because I thought the rise was over." This he said in response to an XRP user who was wondering if XRP's rise is not over.

XRP price predictionAt the start of 2026, asset manager 21Shares issued a prediction for the year, estimating potential valuation ranges for XRP based on varying adoption, macroeconomic and market-structure outcomes.

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In a base case, XRP is predicted to reach $2.45 in the case that regulatory stability boosts steady ETF flows and utility. In a bull case scenario, XRP might reach $2.69, supported by institutional RWA scaling and supply exhaustion.

In a bear case, which is currently playing out, XRP might reach $1.60 (the current price is below here at present), citing stagnant adoption and capital rotation.

According to 21Shares, XRP’s long-term value might depend on tokenized infrastructure and sustained investor demand. If it can continue to capture these flows and grow, 2026 could be promising for XRP.

On the other hand, Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick lowered XRP's price target by the end of 2026 to $2.8 from a previous $8.

Bitcoin’s mining difficulty fell by around 7.7% at the latest adjustment on March 20 to 133.79 trillion at block 941,472, the sharpest drop since February, according to CoinWarz data.

The latest move takes difficulty down from around 145 trillion in mid-March and roughly 148 trillion at the start of the year. A lower difficulty means it takes less computational work to earn the same block reward, slightly improving revenue per unit of hashrate for firms that stay online.

The adjustment followed slower-than-target block production over the prior 2,016 blocks. CloverPool data showed average block times at about 12 minutes 36 seconds, well above Bitcoin’s 10-minute target, forcing the network to recalibrate lower.

In February, difficulty dropped sharply after weather-related disruptions in the United States temporarily knocked large American mining facilities offline, and it later rebounded by about 15% as hashrate returned to the network once power conditions normalized. 

Bitcoin (BTC) difficulty measures how hard it is for miners to find a valid hash for the next block and is automatically adjusted to keep issuance steady at one block every 10 minutes.

When more computing power, or hashrate, joins the network, difficulty rises to prevent blocks from being mined too quickly, while a decline in hashrate triggers a lower difficulty, making it easier for remaining miners to earn rewards. 

Bitcoin difficulty drops 7.7%. Source: CoinWarzThe next difficulty adjustment is currently estimated for April 3, though that projection changes with each new block.

Miners pivot to AI as power costs biteThe difficulty reset also comes as several listed miners push further into AI and high-performance computing infrastructure in search of steadier returns on power and data-center capacity.

Last week, crypto trader Ran Neuner argued AI had become Bitcoin mining’s biggest competitor as both industries compete for electricity, even going as far as to say that “AI has killed Bitcoin forever.” 

Bitcoin miners such as Core Scientific, MARA Holdings, Hut 8 and Cipher Mining have begun reallocating capacity or pivoting toward AI workloads, while some operators have reduced hashrate or shut down less efficient rigs as profitability tightens.

On Feb 21, Bitdeer liquidated 943 BTC from reserves and sold newly mined coins, cutting corporate holdings to zero. In its latest weekly update on March 21, it confirmed that its BTC holdings remained at zero.

Big questions: Would Bitcoin survive a 10-year power outage?

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy

13h05 ▪ 4 min read ▪ by Fenelon L.

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Bitcoin is going through a turbulent phase. As the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran enters its fourth week, financial markets are wavering and capital is evaporating at an alarming rate. The big question: Can BTC still resist, or is the worst yet to come?

In brief Bitcoin has fallen nearly 5% since the beginning of the week, dropping back below $70,000. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $253 million of outflows in just two days. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 ETFs experienced $64 billion of withdrawals in three months, a historic record. Investors fleeing Bitcoin and stocks amid uncertainty Since February 28, the day hostilities broke out, markets have been moving to the rhythm of the war. This week, bitcoin, the S&P 500, the Dow Jones, the Nasdaq, and gold all fell by about 5%. Only crude oil stands out, rising 7.30% over the week, a sign that investors are repositioning their portfolios towards traditional safe-haven assets.

The scale of the capital flight movement is unprecedented. According to the Kobeissi letter, ETFs on the S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) recorded combined outflows of $64 billion in three months. This is the largest wave of withdrawals ever observed for these instruments. It wipes out and far exceeds the $50 billion inflows recorded last November.

Bitcoin spot ETFs are not immune to this trend. Despite still having a positive monthly balance of $1.48 billion, outflows are accelerating: $253 million left these funds in two days. A worrying signal, especially after the $6.3 billion of cumulative outflows between November and February.

Glassnode, meanwhile, observes that the market is struggling to absorb selling pressure. Profit-taking briefly reached $17 million per hour before falling back, and with it, the price of BTC slipped below $70,000.

The on-chain analyst sums up the situation well: “Increasing geopolitical uncertainty is compressing demand, limiting the market’s ability to absorb even moderate realizations.”

Net realized profits and losses on bitcoin. Source: Glassnode Worrying parallels with the 2022 Russo-Ukrainian war Market observers look for guidance in history. And the parallel with February 2022 stands out. During the Russian invasion of Ukraine, bitcoin first plunged, then rebounded by 24% in four weeks, before collapsing an additional 64% by November 2022.

Today, the pattern repeats. BTC rose nearly 10% at the start of the crisis, but this momentum is quickly fading. Crypto commentator Carlitosway identifies three factors of structural fragility:

Pressure on liquidity, which reduces investors’ buying power. Rising energy costs, weighing on mining and margins. Forced sales, mechanically fueling downward pressure. These elements converge towards a scenario of prolonged stabilization. Crypto analyst Finish believes a floor around $55,000 is probable before any significant rebound.

His conclusion is clear: “As long as the war in Iran is not over, it will be difficult for bitcoin to advance. The current context is marked by risk aversion.“

Bitcoin remains trapped in a hostile geopolitical environment, where fear dictates investment decisions. If the 2022 history repeats, recovery will be possible, but it will take time, and the path may pass through $55,000. Patience and caution are required.

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Fenelon L.

Passionné par le Bitcoin, j'aime explorer les méandres de la blockchain et des cryptos et je partage mes découvertes avec la communauté. Mon rêve est de vivre dans un monde où la vie privée et la liberté financière sont garanties pour tous, et je crois fermement que Bitcoin est l'outil qui peut rendre cela possible.

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Bitwise XRP ETF Filing Signals Rising Confidence and Capital InflowsAccording to market analyst Diana, momentum around XRP is gradually shifting from speculation toward more structured institutional involvement, highlighted by the release of Bitwise’s first 10-K annual report filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. 

The 107-page filing represents a key milestone for an XRP-backed exchange-traded product, providing rare, detailed transparency into the fund’s operations, including how assets are stored, managed, and tracked.

The filing shows that the Bitwise Asset Management XRP ETF is fully backed by XRP alone, underscoring its structure as a single-asset fund aimed at closely tracking spot price movements rather than holding a diversified crypto portfolio. 

To ensure accurate pricing, it references the CME benchmark from CME Group, a widely adopted institutional standard for consistent and reliable valuation.

Custody is managed through Coinbase, a major infrastructure provider in the digital asset space, ensuring the XRP holdings are secured within regulated custody frameworks. 

This structure supports the standards institutional investors expect, clear transparency, verifiable audit trails, and strict asset segregation, making it easier for them to allocate capital to crypto-linked products with confidence.

XRP ETF Momentum Builds as Institutional Inflows Go Through the RoofThe report points to robust early demand, with roughly $267 million in new share creations. This momentum is consistent with broader inflows, as the Bitwise XRP ETF has quickly grown into one of the largest U.S.-listed spot XRP funds, with assets under management nearing $289 million. 

Across all U.S. spot XRP ETFs, total assets now stand at about $1.08 billion, while steady weekly inflows of around $10 million underscore continued investor interest and sustained market participation.

Regulatory acknowledgment through an SEC filing adds a strong layer of credibility, given the strict disclosure and compliance standards ETF issuers must meet. For investors, the 10-K offers a clearer view into the fund’s structure, risk profile, and asset custody practices, insights that were largely limited in earlier-stage crypto ETF products.

More broadly, the filing points to a growing institutional shift toward XRP. Spot ETF inflows of roughly $1.4 billion since launch indicate increasing confidence in XRP as a regulated investment vehicle rather than a purely speculative asset. 

With improved transparency and rising participation from traditional finance, XRP’s positioning is steadily moving closer to mainstream financial integration.

ConclusionTaken together, the filing and ongoing inflow trends suggest a market gradually maturing around XRP, with institutional participants increasingly choosing regulated access points over indirect exposure. 

The detailed disclosures in Bitwise Asset Management’s 10-K add a layer of transparency, reinforcing confidence in the fund’s structure, from its CME Group-linked pricing benchmarks to custody arrangements secured through Coinbase.

As regulatory clarity continues to evolve under the oversight of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, XRP’s narrative appears to be shifting away from a primarily retail-driven dynamic toward one shaped more by institutional participation and ETF-linked capital flows.

Few things in investing feel quite as disorienting as watching an asset lose nearly half its value in five months while the rest of the market hums along. Bitcoin (BTC +0.56%) has dropped 18% since the start of 2026, with its first 50 days marking the worst-ever start to a year on record, and it's also still down about 41% from its all-time high near $126,000 in October.

But Bitcoin's past features many brutal declines that later gave way to recoveries so dramatic they made the prior pain feel like a fever dream. So let's take a look at what history says is likely to come next in April, because it might just switch up the coin's recent narrative completely.

Image source: Getty Images.

The last five months have been very unkind to holders Bitcoin just experienced five consecutive negative months, making for its longest losing run since 2018 through 2019, when the coin declined for six consecutive months. Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) holding Bitcoin saw nearly $4 billion in net outflows across the first five weeks of the year, marking a significant reversal of the inflows that helped fuel the 2024 rally.

The macro backdrop hasn't helped one bit. Since the Oct. 10 flash crash that kicked off this big downtrend, Bitcoin (as well as other cryptocurrencies) has diverged from stocks to the downside. At the same time, gold has surged, absorbing capital that might otherwise flow into riskier investments, like cryptocurrencies. One of the coin's narratives, namely that it's a safe-haven asset akin to digital gold, now appears to be dying or dead.

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What's more, with Bitcoin's next halving scheduled for 2028, there aren't necessarily many native catalysts for investors to look forward to in the near term.

What history says about what comes next The good news is that every year that Bitcoin posted a full-year loss since 2013, the recovery afterward was sharp.

After 2014's decline, the coin rebounded 35%. After 2018, it rallied 95%. After the 2022 bear market, it surged 156%. That's an average bounce of roughly 95%.

Plus, April is historically a strong month for the coin. Of the 13 Aprils since 2013, eight have closed in the green, and on average, Bitcoin gains 13% during the month. Therefore, the worst start to a year on record might, in hindsight, turn out to have been a fine time to keep buying. In fact, I've been banking on it.

The lesson here is that most of the time, the best thing to do for your crypto portfolio is to buy Bitcoin at regular intervals, so you get the benefit of both lower prices and price appreciation on your investment. Don't let the rough start scare you off; there are likely greener pastures ahead.

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Bitcoin got steadier lately. The past month saw way less wild price swings compared to the usual crypto chaos that traders know all too well.

But here’s the weird part – even though Bitcoin’s daily moves got smaller, options traders are still shelling out big money for downside protection. VanEck, the investment firm, spotted something pretty interesting in their latest market report. Put option premiums went up even as volatility metrics dropped. Traders want insurance against price crashes, and they’re willing to pay for it. The firm noted that Bitcoin’s trading range narrowed significantly, yet demand for protective puts actually increased over the same period.

Market sentiment stays cautious. Not really surprising.

VanEck’s analysts dug into the options data and found traders are basically betting on trouble ahead. They’re buying puts like crazy, which gives them the right to sell Bitcoin at specific prices if things go south. The premiums for these protective contracts jumped higher than expected given the recent price stability. “Investors are hedging against possible declines even as volatility metrics show less turbulence,” VanEck’s report said. The disconnect between spot market calm and options market anxiety tells a story about lingering fears.

Options Market Shows Real Fear CME Group data from March 15 showed open interest for Bitcoin options climbing fast. Put options led the charge, with traders piling into contracts that protect against downside moves. CME became a go-to spot for nervous investors looking to hedge their bets.

Coinbase saw similar action on its derivatives platform. March 18 brought record Bitcoin options volume for the month. Traders flocked to protective instruments despite Bitcoin’s steadier price action.

The Federal Reserve meeting on March 22 probably spooked some folks. Interest rate changes could slam Bitcoin hard, so traders got defensive ahead of time. This development aligns with North carolina launches historic state bitcoin, highlighting broader market trends.

Data Tells Different Stories Glassnode, the on-chain analytics outfit, found something interesting. Bitcoin’s price got stable, but new investors didn’t really show up. Existing holders just sat tight, with active wallet counts barely budging. People aren’t convinced the calm will last.

Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest dropped a report March 19 saying Bitcoin’s realized volatility hit lows not seen since November 2023. Trading volumes fell across major exchanges too. ARK called it “cautious optimism” among long-term holders who seem to be waiting for clearer signals before making big moves.

Binance reported futures trading volume up 15% over the past week. Spot markets stayed quiet, but futures action heated up as traders looked for ways to play potential price swings. The exchange saw increased interest in speculative positions even as the underlying asset traded in a tighter range.

JPMorgan Chase weighed in March 17 with their take on macro factors driving Bitcoin’s current dynamics. Their analysts pointed to interest rate expectations and inflation data as key drivers of investor sentiment. Any major shifts in economic indicators could bring back the volatility that made Bitcoin famous, making downside protection look pretty smart for risk-averse players.

The cost of protection basically became a confidence meter. Higher premiums mean less faith in sustained stability. VanEck’s report hammered home that point – traders want insurance against price falls even when things look calm. Analysts have drawn connections to Bitcoin Traders Demand Cost Transparency as amid evolving conditions.

Nobody from Bitcoin’s core development team commented on these market conditions. The ongoing demand for protective options shows traders aren’t comfortable with current price levels yet. Seems like they’re expecting the other shoe to drop sooner rather than later.

Historical precedent backs up trader nervousness. Bitcoin’s longest period of low volatility lasted just 47 days in late 2016, according to CoinMetrics data. After that stretch, the cryptocurrency exploded upward by over 300% within six months. Traders remember those patterns. The current calm feels temporary to veterans who’ve watched Bitcoin cycle through quiet phases followed by massive moves. Galaxy Digital’s research team noted similar volatility compression events in 2019 and 2020, both preceding significant price breakouts in either direction.

Institutional players are driving much of the options demand. Fidelity Digital Assets reported a 40% increase in client inquiries about Bitcoin hedging strategies since March 1. Corporate treasuries holding Bitcoin – companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla – face quarterly earnings pressure that makes downside protection attractive. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust saw $2.1 billion in net inflows during March’s first three weeks, but fund managers simultaneously ramped up derivative positions to manage risk exposure. The institutional adoption that crypto advocates celebrated is now creating sophisticated hedging demand that didn’t exist during Bitcoin’s early wild-west days.

Frequently Asked QuestionsWhy are Bitcoin traders buying expensive downside protection?Traders fear the current stability won’t last and want insurance against potential price crashes, especially with the Fed meeting and economic uncertainty ahead.

What does VanEck’s report show about Bitcoin volatility?VanEck found Bitcoin’s daily price swings decreased significantly over the past month, but options premiums for downside protection actually increased during the same period.

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Ethereum (ETH) is trading near $2,148 on March 21, as sustained large-holder accumulation meets weakening network growth and a key support test.

Whale buying and slowing on-chain momentum have compressed ETH into a tight range. The $1,928 level now defines the next major move.

Ethereum Whale Flash ConvictionSantiment data from March 18 to March 21 shows wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million ETH rising from about 6.38 million to 6.49 million coins. This marks a 110,000 ETH increase, which is currently valued at $235 million, exhibiting confidence.

The divergence is clearest between mid-March and March 19. As the Ethereum price dropped from $2,317 to below $2,150, whale holdings increased. Accumulation during a sell-off points to strong conviction.

For the bullish case to hold, these balances must continue rising. A sustained decline would weaken the primary demand driver.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

Ethereum Whale Holdings. Source: SantimentGlassnode data shows declining new address activity. Daily new ETH addresses peaked near 450,000 around January 15, 2026, and have dropped to about 250,000 by March 20.

The 30-day simple moving average has fallen from roughly 355,000 on February 8 to about 255,000. The 365-day simple moving average trends higher near 175,000, indicating short-term momentum has cooled toward its long-term baseline.

Slowing new address growth signals weaker demand from new participants. While whales are absorbing supply, broader market participation is not expanding.

Ethereum New Address Momentum. Source: GlassnodeETH Price May See Some RiseThe daily chart shows Ethereum price near $2,154 after rejecting $2,389 on March 17. The rally measured 415 points, or 21.44 percent, from around $1,940. Price has since retraced 197 points, or 8.41 percent.

Fibonacci retracement levels define the structure. The 0.618 level at $2,244 capped the rally. The 0.786 level at $2,027 held as support. The 200-day exponential moving average is rising near $2,121 and acting as dynamic support.

The key level is $1,928, the last swing low before the rally. A daily close below it would signal a failed recovery and expose $1,838. If ETH reclaims $2,244, the next targets are $2,389 and $2,550.

ETH Price Analysis. Source: TradingViewThe March 27 quarterly options expiry, with over $14 billion in Bitcoin open interest, could increase volatility.

Combined with the Federal Reserve holding rates steady while raising its 2026 inflation outlook, the coming week will test support near $2,121. Whale accumulation provides support, but weakening network growth leaves ETH vulnerable to downside pressure.

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Bitcoin’s mining difficulty took another hit. The network cut difficulty by 7.7% on March 21, marking the second big reduction miners have seen this year after February’s 5.2% drop.

Mining difficulty basically measures how hard it is for miners to solve the cryptographic puzzles that keep Bitcoin running. When difficulty falls, miners can earn more Bitcoin for the same amount of work, which sounds great until you realize why it’s happening. The network adjusts difficulty every two weeks to keep blocks coming roughly every ten minutes, but these back-to-back cuts show miners are struggling to keep up with rising costs and fierce competition from an unexpected rival: AI data centers.

AI Centers Drain Mining Resources The competition is getting pretty intense. AI data centers need massive amounts of computational power and energy, the same resources Bitcoin miners depend on. Companies building AI infrastructure are willing to pay top dollar for electricity and hardware, which pushes costs higher for mining operations that were already dealing with tight margins.

“We’re seeing AI companies outbid miners for energy contracts in key regions,” said crypto analyst Sarah Thompson on March 21. The shift is forcing smaller mining operations to shut down or relocate to cheaper areas. Kazakhstan and Russia have picked up some of this displaced activity – Russia’s Ministry of Energy reported a 15% jump in electricity consumption from crypto mining on March 20.

Not everyone’s hurting though.

Major mining pools like F2Pool and Antpool jumped on the difficulty drop immediately, cranking up their operations to grab more rewards while the getting’s good. These big players control huge chunks of Bitcoin’s hash rate and can pivot fast when conditions change.

Price Cushions the Blow Bitcoin’s price sitting around $45,000 helps miners weather the storm. That’s a solid recovery from earlier lows this year and gives operations some breathing room even with higher energy costs eating into profits. But the math is still tricky – any significant price drop could wipe out the benefits from easier mining difficulty pretty quickly. This development aligns with Cloud Mining Gains Steam as Bitcoin, highlighting broader market trends.

John Myers at Crypto Insights warned on March 19 that miners can’t count on current price levels lasting. “The difficulty adjustment buys them time, but it doesn’t solve the fundamental cost pressures,” Myers said. Smaller independent miners who already struggle to compete with industrial-scale operations might get a brief window to increase their share, but that window could slam shut if market conditions shift.

BitFury announced plans on March 18 to invest in renewable energy projects, trying to cut long-term costs and reduce their carbon footprint. The move shows how mining companies are scrambling to adapt as traditional strategies become less viable.

Energy economist Alex de Vries raised sustainability concerns about the whole situation. He thinks the combined energy demands of Bitcoin mining and AI data centers could strain global resources without major efficiency improvements. The current trajectory doesn’t look sustainable long-term, according to his analysis.

Regulatory uncertainty adds another layer of complexity. No new rules have dropped yet, but governments are watching energy consumption from both crypto and AI operations closely. Industry players are waiting to see if officials will impose restrictions or offer incentives to manage the power demands.

The February difficulty cut of 5.2% followed by March’s 7.7% drop shows the network is still trying to find its balance. Miners keep adapting, but the pressure isn’t letting up anytime soon. Analysts have drawn connections to BitFuFu Cuts Self-Mined Bitcoin Revenue 60% amid evolving conditions.

The difficulty adjustments reflect broader shifts happening across Bitcoin’s mining landscape. China’s mining ban in 2021 initially scattered hash rate globally, but now AI’s explosive growth is creating a second wave of displacement. Marathon Digital Holdings reported spending $879 million on new mining equipment in Q4 2022, yet their latest quarterly results show profit margins shrinking despite expanded capacity. Core Scientific, one of the largest publicly traded miners, filed for bankruptcy protection last year partly due to energy cost pressures that have only intensified with AI competition.

Geographic mining patterns are reshaping rapidly as operators chase cheaper power. Paraguay’s National Electricity Administration logged 300% growth in applications from crypto miners since January, while Iceland’s geothermal-powered facilities are booking up months in advance. Texas remains a hotspot despite grid reliability concerns – ERCOT data shows crypto operations consumed 1.7% of the state’s total electricity in 2023, but that percentage could drop as AI data centers claim priority access to power infrastructure. Some mining companies are hedging by diversifying into AI services themselves, with Hive Digital Technologies allocating 20% of their GPU capacity to machine learning contracts.

Frequently Asked QuestionsWhat caused Bitcoin’s mining difficulty to drop 7.7%?The decrease reflects miners struggling with higher costs and competition from AI data centers for energy and hardware resources.

How does lower mining difficulty help miners?Reduced difficulty makes it easier to mine Bitcoin blocks, allowing miners to earn more rewards for the same computational effort.

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Bitcoin [BTC] was up 5.44% over the past thirty days, but its bullish momentum has stalled over the past week. Recently, the price has been stuck between the $69k-$71k levels. There were signs of BTC accumulation, but there were also metrics that supported the view that holders were selling into short-term strength.

In the short-term, the weakened spot ETF flows likely reflected the dimmed bullish sentiment behind BTC. From the 18th to the 20th of March, Farside Investors’ data revealed a $305.7 million outflow.

AMBCrypto reported on the ETF outflows and observed that this could trigger a pullback to the $65k support. So far, it has not happened, but it was a possibility swing traders should be prepared for.

Source: CryptoQuant Despite the ETF capital outflows, there was a sign of accumulation. Notably, a CryptoQuant analyst observed that Bitcoin netflow (30-day Moving Average) from Binance was dropping below zero.

The negative netflows indicated accumulation, and Bitcoin rallied from $65k to $74k as a result. While the equities market posted losses, exchange outflows reflected demand that has kept prices around the $70k mark.

Examining the potential for an ‘imminent flush’ Source: CryptoQuant Another crypto analyst wrote that the binary CDD was the”deadliest data point“. The metric measures whether long-term holders’ coin movements are higher or lower than average.

Readings clustered around 1 show that holders are preparing to sell. Using the 7SMA to smooth the metric, the analyst observed that the reading of 0 was seen for the third time in four months.

This can set up the conditions for a violent price flush. The zero reading showed veteran holders were not selling, which could give rise to an illiquid environment and pave the way for a price correction.

Source: Glassnode AMBCrypto examined the accumulation trend score metric to understand if larger entities were hoarding or selling BTC. At the time of writing, the trend score was 0.094.

Values closer to zero indicate larger entities were distributing BTC. This meant that it would be harder for momentum to continue to be bullish in the coming weeks.

Overall, the metrics examined have produced mixed signals. In the short-term, a sustained push higher was possible. At the same time, long-term investors should remember that the rally was not the result of aggressive spot demand and position themselves accordingly.

Final Summary The exchange outflows in recent days indicated Bitcoin accumulation and helped explain the rally in March. Other metrics showed that holders were distributing into the short-term BTC strength, raising questions over how long the rally can be sustained.

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