Market Signal Briefing

Upstart shares present investors with a high-risk, high-reward opportunity.

Upstart (UPST 2.74%) shares once looked as if they were ready to go to the moon. From the company's initial public offering in December 2020 to its peak in October 2021, this fintech stock skyrocketed 1,850%. The market was in love with Upstart's phenomenal growth trajectory. But it's been a precipitous fall since that record was reached more than four years ago.

Investors are looking at this innovative business with a fresh perspective. Could buying Upstart today on the dip set you up for life?

Image source: Getty Images.

This business is now in a favorable position
Upstart seems to be hitting its stride these days. It reported 71% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3, which was driven by a 128% rise in transaction volume. Upstart is finding remarkable early success with its new products. Auto loan and HELOC (home equity lines of credit) originations surged fivefold and fourfold, respectively, compared to the third quarter of 2024.

It's hard to believe that the business is now generating positive earnings based on generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), operating in the black in the past two quarters. The company's leaders expect this to continue. They forecast $50 million in net income for all of 2025.

Upstart's ability to successfully leverage artificial intelligence (AI) in its business is driving efficiency gains, which could help the bottom line. It's worth mentioning that 91% of loans approved in Q3 were completely automated. This is up dramatically from a 69% share in the fourth quarter of 2019.

Investors must be mindful of the bear case
Upstart appears to be trending in the right direction. However, investors still should be aware of some notable red flags. This will help round out a thorough analysis of the company.

The first negative factor to think about is the cyclical nature of the business model. Upstart's revenue dipped 1% in 2022 and 39% in 2023, as the Federal Reserve rapidly increased interest rates to cool down piping hot inflation. Demand from borrowers to take out loans plunged, which isn't surprising. Transaction volumes plummeted, and Upstart was losing lots of money.

The business is on much better footing now. But investors can't ignore the persistent risk that if macroeconomic conditions weaken, as they occasionally do, then at some point in the future Upstart will once again be in financial trouble. This could also include difficulty selling its loans to institutional investors, which adds more credit risk to the equation. Indeed, Upstart had more than $1.2 billion in loans on its balance sheet as of Sept. 30, up 21% in three months.

Upstart facilitates personal, auto, and HELOC loans. Combined, these lending verticals present a total addressable market measured in the trillions of dollars on an annual basis. In theory, the business has a gigantic opportunity. But it's easy to argue that Upstart's true potential is significantly smaller. That's because there are enormous banking entities, like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, that have a much more powerful position when it comes to these lending products. And they have deep pockets to invest in their own AI capabilities, putting a cap on Upstart's long-term growth potential.

Today's Change

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43.73

Upstart is a high-risk, high-reward stock
Upstart's leadership team expects the business to generate more than $1 billion in revenue this year, which would be a record. And the average forecast by sell-side analysts is that the top line will grow 45% between 2025 and 2027. The optimistic view is that Upstart has significant upside as it increases originations, further penetrates its markets, improves its AI model, and expands the bottom line.

Upstart could end up becoming a wildly successful investment during the next decade and beyond. However, there is a lot of doubts about how things will ultimately play out. Nothing is guaranteed.

And this doesn't take away from the fact that it's never a smart idea to bank on any individual stock setting you up for life. It's not always about hitting home runs. Instead, the best approach is to build a diversified portfolio that can generate adequate returns over the long term based on your individual goals.

Tesla new car registrations fell by two thirds in France and Sweden in December, but surged in Norway confirming a trend of record sales in Europe's EV trailblazer while the U.S. automaker's market share crumbles across the rest of the region.

Here are three stocks added to the Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) List today:

BCB Bancorp NJ (BCBP - Free Report) is a state chartered commercial bank that provides banking products and services to businesses and individuals in the United States. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has been revised almost 33.3% downward over the last 60 days.

Arkema (ARKAY - Free Report) is engaged in the manufacturing and marketing of vinyl products, industrial chemicals, and performance products. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has been revised 8% downward over the last 60 days.

Gibson Energy (GBNXF - Free Report) is an oil infrastructure company with its principal businesses consisting of the storage, optimization, processing and gathering of crude oil and refined products. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has been revised almost 5.2% downward over the last 60 days.

View the entire Zacks Rank #5 List.

2026 will be a year of changes for Berkshire Hathaway.

This new year will mark the end of an era for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A 0.08%)(BRK.B 0.21%). Long-time CEO Warren Buffett retired from that position on Dec. 31, 2025, turning over the reins to Greg Abel. While Buffett plans to continue working for Berkshire, Abel will run the day-to-day operations.

I think 2026 could be a busy year for Buffett's successor. Here are two things I predict he'll do in his first year running Berkshire Hathaway.

Image source: Getty Images.

Berkshire Hathaway will initiate a dividend
Berkshire Hathaway has only paid one dividend during Buffett's tenure. Buffett joked that the board must have made the decision to pay that dividend in 1967 while he was in the bathroom. His preference has always been to retain the company's profits to reinvest them back into the business rather than pay dividends to shareholders.

That strategy has worked over the years. Buffett and his team have consistently identified attractive opportunities to invest capital. They've routinely acquired great operating businesses to expand Berkshire's platform, including Precision Castparts, BNSF, and Alleghany. Additionally, Berkshire Hathaway frequently purchases shares of high-quality, publicly traded companies. The company's investment portfolio is currently valued at nearly $310 billion and features notable names such as Apple, American Express, and Coca-Cola.

However, Berkshire Hathaway has found fewer opportunities to put capital to work in recent years. While the company agreed to buy Occidental Petroleum's chemicals subsidiary, OxyChem, for $9.7 billion in October, that was its first major deal since buying Alleghany Corporation for $11.6 billion in 2022. Meanwhile, Berkshire has been a net seller of stocks for the past 12 straight quarters. The company also hasn't repurchased any of its stock in the past five quarters.

Today's Change

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754800.00

As a result, Berkshire Hathaway has amassed a substantial cash position. It reached a record $381.7 billion by the end of the third quarter. Berkshire is currently generating interest income on this cash by investing it in T-bills (it currently holds more T-bills than the Federal Reserve).

However, with interest rates falling and Berkshire's cash position rising, investors will eventually demand that the company start returning some of this money to them. That drives my prediction that Berkshire Hathaway will initiate a dividend payment by the end of 2026.

Berkshire makes a bigger bet on tech
Warren Buffett has largely avoided investing in technology stocks throughout his career. He preferred to invest in companies that didn't change much. However, Buffett has softened his stance over the years. One of the company's more successful investments has been in Apple. Berkshire also recently purchased $4.9 billion worth of shares in Google's parent company, Alphabet.

I predict that Berkshire will buy more shares of tech companies in 2026. The industry is vital to the economy, especially in the AI age. The technology sector currently comprises about 35% of the S&P 500. Meanwhile, eight of the 10 largest companies by market cap are in the technology sector. Berkshire's decision to avoid the sector over the years has cost investors potential returns.

I expect Berkshire Hathaway to remain disciplined when investing in tech. For example, when Buffett's company bought shares of Alphabet, it traded at about 25 times forward earnings, a lower valuation multiple than Microsoft and Nvidia, which traded at 29 times and 30 times earnings, respectively, at the time. The company will likely seek opportunities to invest in a high-quality technology company when it trades at a more compelling valuation. While Alphabet's stock is no longer as cheap as it was when Berkshire first bought shares (it's currently over 29 times forward earnings), there are other potential opportunities these days. Meta Platforms is currently one of the cheapest large technology companies, with a valuation of about 26 times forward earnings, and may be an appealing option for Berkshire.

The dawn of a new era
I believe 2026 will be a year of change for Berkshire Hathaway under new CEO Greg Abel. I think that he will initiate a dividend and start investing more of the company's capital into the technology sector. These moves would put Berkshire in an even better position to produce market-beating total returns for its shareholders in the future.

American Express is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Matt DiLallo has positions in Alphabet, Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, Coca-Cola, and Meta Platforms and has the following options: short January 2026 $265 calls on Apple. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends Occidental Petroleum and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

BYD sharply declined in December from a year before, as it closed the curtains on a volatile year for China electric vehicles amid an aggressive price war and weak domestic demand.

The company recorded 414,784 deliveries in December, down from 474,921 in November, according to a Friday filing.

The latest reading brings BYD to hit its 2025 sales target, which it lowered by 16% to 4.6 million, amid increasingly weakening domestic demand.

The EV behemoth also remained the clear market leader, delivering more than 4.54 million passenger vehicles for 2025 – a 6.94% increase from its 2024 deliveries.

That overshadows Tesla's recorded wholesale deliveries of 735,274 from Model Y and Model 3 vehicles in China, between January and November, based on CNBC's calculation of data from the China Passenger Car Association. December numbers have yet to be released.

Affordable models offer edge EV startups posted strong growth in 2025, as mass-market models and aggressive pricing increasingly outperformed premium-focused strategies.

Leapmotor emerged as one of the fastest-growing brands, making 596,555 deliveries in 2025, surpassing its target for the year. The automaker, which marked its 10th anniversary last year, nearly doubled its sales volume from 2024 and aims to deliver 1 million EVs in 2026.

Xpeng also posted a sharp increase, delivering 429,445 sales for the year – a 126% jump from 2024, the company said Thursday. The automaker's deliveries peaked in September and October following the launch of its Mona series in September.

Nio posted 326,028 car deliveries in 2025, recording a 46.9% year-on-year increase, the company said in a Thursday release. About half of its deliveries were attributed to Nio's premium namesake brand. The company also said in the release that it had set a record in China for the fastest delivery among EVs priced above 400,000 yuan ($57,172), with its flagship SUV ES8.

Without specifying its annual delivery numbers, Xiaomi recorded more than 50,000 sales in December, marking a new record. According to CNBC calculations of its monthly data, the smartphone maker made more than 380,000 car deliveries in 2025.

Li Auto bucks trendBy contrast, Li Auto delivered 406,343 vehicles for the whole of 2025, marking a sharp decline from its record performance in 2024.

The company delivered 44,246 vehicles in December, its first monthly total above 40,000 since May. The latest reading marks a recovery in growth since its sales were hit by a marketing misstep in September, around the launch of its competitively priced Li i8.

Meanwhile, Huawei-backed Harmony Intelligent Mobility Alliance – which includes brands such as Aito, Chery, and Maextro – recorded strong momentum, with about 589,107 vehicles delivered for 2025, a 32% year-on-year increase.

It clocked 89,611 deliveries in December, marking the third straight month of monthly delivery records, the company said.

The company did not specify Aito's delivery figures.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD 2.04%) operates an investment platform where its clients can buy and sell stocks, options contracts, futures contracts, cryptocurrencies, and more. It's particularly popular with young, first-time investors because it offers commission-free trading, and a user-friendly interface.

Robinhood stock had quite a year in 2025. Not only did it soar by a whopping 200%, it was also added to the prestigious S&P 500 index, where it sits alongside some of the highest-quality names listed on American stock exchanges.

Unfortunately, the stock is now extremely expensive, which could limit further upside in the near term. Moreover, if history is any guide, the areas of Robinhood's business that fueled most of its revenue growth last year could soon run out of steam, which could even trigger a sharp correction in the stock during 2026.

Image source: Getty Images.

Unsustainable growth drivers
Robinhood has two main sources of revenue: Transaction revenue, which comes from processing trades for clients, and net interest revenue, which is the money the company earns on margin loans, and on its cash balances. Transaction revenue is usually the bigger piece, and its composition is increasingly concerning.

During the third quarter of 2025 (ended Sept. 30), Robinhood's transaction revenue totaled $730 million, which was up by a whopping 129% year over year. However, a significant portion of that growth came from its cryptocurrency segment, where revenue surged by 339% to $268 million.

Robinhood's crypto business is notoriously volatile. In fact, during the six-month period between the fourth quarter of 2024 and the second quarter of 2025, its revenue actually plummeted by more than 50%.

Today's Change

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Current Price

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In the last cryptocurrency boom four years ago, Robinhood's crypto transaction revenue rocketed higher by 4,560% during Q2 2021. But popular coins and tokens like Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and even Bitcoin eventually turned south, and Robinhood's crypto revenue was down 75% by Q2 2022 just one year later.

Most of those cryptocurrencies have been sinking for the last few months, so I won't be surprised if Robinhood's crypto business took another hit during the final quarter of 2025. Unfortunately, the company is lapping a very strong transaction revenue number from Q4 2024, which will be hard to beat.

Therefore, I don't predict much (if any) growth, which won't be well received by Wall Street considering Robinhood's elevated valuation (more on that later).

Image source: Robinhood Markets.

Excitement about prediction markets might be overblown
In August, Robinhood signed a deal with Kalshi to bring prediction markets to its platform. That means that Robinhood's clients can now "bet" on football, basketball, hockey, and soccer games, in addition to elections, and even economic events like interest rate moves. This creates an entirely new revenue stream for the company, which is a key reason its stock rocketed higher in 2025.

But the hype might be a little excessive, because during Q3, Robinhood's prediction business was generating just $115 million in annualized revenue. Wall Street's consensus estimate (provided by Yahoo! Finance) suggests that the company's total revenue likely came in at around $4.5 billion in 2025 (the official results will be reported in late January), so the prediction business would be a paltry 2.5% of that figure.

Plus, Kalshi was valued at just $11 billion during its latest private funding round. So it's hard to believe that this partnership will have a game-changing effect on Robinhood, which is a $105 billion company. With that said, the U.S. sports betting industry is worth $20 billion annually (according to Grand View Research), so there is certainly room for prediction markets to grow.

Why Robinhood stock could move lower in 2026
Robinhood stock is trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 25.5 as I write this, which is more than twice its average of 11.2 since it went public in 2021.

HOOD PS Ratio data by YCharts.

Robinhood would have to generate significantly more revenue in a very short period of time to justify its current valuation. Failing that, there is a risk that investors will decide to revalue its stock. It would have to decline by a whopping 55% from here just for its P/S ratio to align with its long-term average of 11.2.

When we combine Robinhood's volatile crypto revenue and its hyped-up prediction markets business with its expensive stock, we could have a recipe for a significant correction in 2026. That is the outcome I'm predicting as the year progresses.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Here are three stocks with buy ranks and strong growth characteristics for investors to consider today January 2nd:

RenaissanceRe (RNR - Free Report) : This company, which provides property-catastrophe reinsurance to insurers and reinsurers globally on the basis of excess of loss (coverage of losses over a specified limit), carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), and has witnessed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 12.9% over the last 60 days.

RenaissanceRe has a PEG ratio of 1.67 compared with 1.82 for the industry. The company possesses a Growth Score of A.

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD - Free Report) : This company, which is the largest provider of dredging services in the US conducting business to maintain and deepen shipping channels, reclaim land from the ocean, and renourish storm damaged coastline, carries a Zacks Rank #1, and has witnessed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 6.9% over the last 60 days.

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock has a PEG ratio of 1.01 compared with 3.03 for the industry. The company possesses a Growth Score of A.

Phibro Animal Health (PAHC - Free Report) : This leading global diversified animal health and mineral nutrition company, which provides a broad range of products for food animals including poultry, swine, beef and dairy cattle and aquaculture, carries a Zacks Rank #1, and has witnessed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 9.1% over the last 60 days.

Phibro Animal Health has a PEG ratio of 1.06 compared with 2.44 for the industry. The company possesses a Growth Score of B.

See the full list of top ranked stocks here.

Learn more about the Growth score and how it is calculated here.

LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aeromexico maintained a 90.02% on-time performance to claim the world's most on-time global airline title for the second consecutive year, according to Cirium's 2025 On-Time Performance Review released today.

The Mexican carrier becomes only the second airline to achieve consecutive global wins since Cirium launched the program in 2009, operating 188,859 flights across 23 countries while maintaining industry-leading schedule reliability.

Aeromexico Holds Global Lead; Regional Champions Crowned

Aeromexico secured the global airline title with 90.02% on-time performance, holding off strong competition from Saudia in second place with 86.53% and SAS with 86.09% in third. The margin between first and third place was 3.93 percentage points, reflecting the strong performance of Aeromexico in 2025.

Regional winners included:

North America: Delta Air Lines won for the fifth consecutive year with 80.90% on-time performance

Europe: Iberia Express (International Airlines Group) defended its title for the third consecutive year with 88.94% on-time performance

Asia-Pacific: Philippine Airlines claimed the regional title for the first time with 83.12% on-time performance

Latin America: Copa Airlines achieved its 11th win, the most of any airline since Cirium's program launched in 2009 with 90.75% on-time performance

Middle East and Africa: Safair topped the regional rankings with 91.06% on-time performance

Qatar Airways Wins Airline Platinum Award

Qatar Airways captured Cirium's Platinum Award, recognizing the Doha-based carrier's operational excellence across its global hub network. The airline achieved 84.42% on-time performance across more than 198,303 flights spanning six continents.

Virgin Atlantic Claims Inaugural 'Most Improved' Award

Virgin Atlantic won Cirium's new 'Most Improved' award, demonstrating the largest year-over-year operational performance gain among global carriers. The UK-based airline improved its on-time performance from 74.01% in 2024 to 83.45% in 2025—a 9.44 percentage point increase year-over-year.

The new award recognizes airlines that have achieved meaningful operational scale (minimum 70% baseline performance) while delivering substantial improvements, ensuring the honor reflects genuine operational excellence rather than recovery from poor prior performance.

Strong Global Airport Performance in 2025

Santiago Arturo Merino Benitez International Airport wins the Large Airport category, with 87.04% of flights departing on time.

Panama's Tocumen International Airport won the Medium Airport category with 93.34% of flights departing on time. Ecuador's Guayaquil José Joaquín de Olmedo International Airport claimed the Small Airport title for the second year in a row with 91.47% of flights departing on time.

Istanbul Airport won Cirium's Airport Platinum Award, which evaluates operational complexity, passenger impact during disruptions, and growth trajectory. Last year's Airport Platinum winner was El Dorado International Airport in Bogotá, Colombia.

Industry Context and Analysis

Jeremy Bowen, Cirium CEO, said: "Maintaining consistent on-time performance requires sophisticated network planning, operational coordination, and the ability to recover quickly when irregularities occur. These results reflect the operational discipline that defines aviation's top performers."

"Qatar Airways' Platinum win is particularly significant because it demonstrates how a network carrier can maintain on-time performance across six continents while operating one of the industry's most complex hub structures. Their 84.42% on-time rate over 198,303 flights sets a new benchmark for network carriers. Similarly, Copa's 11th win for the Latin American category and Delta's fifth consecutive North American win, reflects sustained operational focus that separates industry leaders from competitors."

About the On-Time Performance Review

Now in its 17th year, the Cirium On-Time Performance Review analyzes flight data from over 600 real-time sources including airlines, airports, global distribution systems, and civil aviation authorities. An independent advisory board of aviation industry veterans provides oversight and guidance.

An on-time flight arrives within 14:59 minutes of scheduled gate arrival time. Airport punctuality measures flights departing within 14:59 minutes of scheduled departure time. The Platinum Awards for both airlines and airports consider operational complexity, network scale, passenger impact during disruptions, and consistency throughout the year.

The Most Improved award, introduced in 2025, requires carriers to demonstrate at least 70% baseline on-time performance in the prior year to ensure recognition reflects operational excellence rather than recovery from poor performance.

Complete 2025 Rankings

Top 10 Global Airlines

Ranking

Airline

On-Time Arrival

Total Flights

1

(AM) Aeromexico

90.02%

188,859

2

(SV) Saudia

86.53%

202,864

3

(SK) SAS

86.09%

249,674

4

(AD) Azul

85.18%

304,625

5

(QR) Qatar Airways

84.42%

198,303

6

(IB) Iberia

83.52%

188,447

7

(LA) LATAM Airlines

82.40%

580,707

8

(AV) Avianca

81.73%

266,921

9

(TK) Turkish Airlines

81.41%

421,090

10

(DL) Delta Air Lines

80.90%

1,800,086

Top 10 North American Airlines

Ranking

Airline

On-Time Arrival

Total Flights

1

(DL) Delta Air Lines

80.90%

1,800,086

2

(AS) Alaska Airlines

79.20%

453,031

3

(NK) Spirit Airlines

78.83%

218,265

4

(UA) United Airlines

78.77%

1,732,450

5

(WN) Southwest Airlines

77.04%

1,422,405

6

(AA) American Airlines

76.43%

2,259,576

7

(B6) JetBlue

74.66%

313,318

8

(WS) WestJet

73.58%

205,501

9

(AC) Air Canada

73.26%

383,819

10

(F9) Frontier Airlines

72.14%

208,987

Top 10 European Airlines

Ranking

Airline

On-Time Arrival

Total Flights

1

(I2) Iberia Express

88.94%

37,119

2

(SK) SAS

86.09%

249,674

3

(OS) Austrian

83.74%

124,457

4

(IB) Iberia

83.52%

188,447

5

(VS) Virgin Atlantic

83.45%

26,359

6

(FI) Icelandair

83.23%

39,425

7

(VY) Vueling

82.20%

228,611

8

(TK) Turkish Airlines

81.41%

421,090

9

(D8, DY) Norwegian

80.96%

150,784

10

(AY) Finnair

79.67%

116,652

Top 10 Latin American Airlines

Ranking

Airline

On-Time Arrival

Total Flights

1

(CM) Copa Airlines

90.75%

133,748

2

(AM) Aeromexico

90.02%

188,859

3

(G3) Gol

87.75%

238,182

4

(AD) Azul

85.18%

304,625

5

(LA) LATAM Airlines

82.40%

580,707

6

(H2) Sky Airline

82.39%

55,116

7

(AV) Avianca

81.73%

266,921

8

(JA) JetSmart Chile

76.91%

90,460

9

(AR) Aerolineas Argentinas

76.54%

107,490

10

Only 9 airlines qualified in the region

Top 10 Asia-Pacific Airlines

Ranking

Airline

On-Time Arrival

Total Flights

1

(PR) Philippine Airlines

83.12%

116,268

2

(NZ) Air New Zealand

79.29%

171,216

3

(NH) ANA

78.88%

309,998

4

(SQ) Singapore Airlines

78.58%

121,293

5

(JL) JAL

78.25%

313,410

6

(6E) IndiGo

78.12%

802,418

7

(CX) Cathay Pacific

76.78%

119,193

8

(VA) Virgin Australia

76.54%

155,038

9

(QF) Qantas

76.51%

276,859

10

(KE) Korean Air

75.34%

133,252

Top 10 Middle East and Africa Airlines

Ranking

Airline

On-Time Arrival

Total Flights

1

(FA) Safair

91.06%

62,805

2

(RJ) Royal Jordanian

90.73%

37,524

3

(F3) Flyadeal

86.54%

69,971

4

(SV) Saudia

86.53%

202,864

5

(4Z) Airlink

84.47%

84,361

6

(QR) Qatar Airways

84.42%

198,303

7

(WY) Oman Air

83.10%

38,828

8

(SA) South African Airways

81.26%

24,461

9

(EY) Etihad Airways

81.06%

100,620

10

(KU) Kuwait Airways

79.50%

29,977

Top 10 Large Airports

Ranking

Airport

On-Time Departure

Total Flights

1

(SCL) Santiago Arturo Merino Benitez Intl Airport

87.04%

153,326

2

(RUH) Riyadh King Khalid International Airport

86.81%

264,614

3

(MEX) Mexico City Benito Juárez International Airport

86.55%

295,737

4

(HNL) Honolulu International Airport

86.51%

156,139

5

(OSL) Oslo Gardermoen Airport

86.00%

204,882

6

(LIM) Lima Jorge Chavez International Airport

85.54%

183,137

7

(SLC) Salt Lake City International Airport

85.04%

243,848

8

(CPH) Copenhagen Airport

84.72%

236,903

9

(DOH) Doha Hamad International Airport

84.70%

251,864

10

(ARN) Stockholm Arlanda Airport

83.59%

181,238

Top 10 Medium Airports

Ranking

Airport

On-Time Departure

Total Flights

1

(PTY) Panama City Tocumen International Airport

93.34%

148,065

2

(BSB) Brasilia International Airport

88.36%

114,481

3

(JNB) Johannesburg O.R. Tambo International Airport

86.22%

189,542

4

(ITM) Osaka Itami International Airport

86.04%

136,489

5

(DMM) Dammam King Fahd International Airport

85.15%

94,768

6

(GIG) Rio de Janeiro Galeão International Airport

85.13%

115,384

7

(PDX) Portland International Airport

85.02%

159,964

8

(VCP) Viracopos-Campinas International Airport

84.55%

111,758

9

(SJC) San Jose Mineta International Airport

83.66%

99,182

10

(CNF) Belo Horizonte International Airport

83.57%

113,857

Top 10 Small Airports

Ranking

Airport

On-Time Departure

Total Flights

1

(GYE) Guayaquil José Joaquín de Olmedo Intl Airport

91.47%

34,068

2

(SAL) El Salvador International Airport

90.28%

47,203

3

(SDU) Rio de Janeiro Santos Dumont Airport

89.67%

58,303

4

(SVG) Stavanger Airport

89.55%

38,894

5

(UIO) Quito Mariscal Sucre International Airport

89.45%

42,911

6

(CPT) Cape Town International Airport

88.72%

82,030

7

(KOA) Ellison Onizuka Kona Intl Airport at Keahole

88.48%

32,702

8

(SSA) Salvador International Airport

87.32%

55,594

9

(TRD) Trondheim Airport

86.95%

47,291

10

(AMM) Amman Queen Alia International Airport

86.82%

76,734

Cirium's full 2025 On-Time Performance Review is available at www.cirium.com/on-time-performance

About Cirium

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Few companies in history have enjoyed stock market success akin to Nvidia’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) remarkable rally that started in late 2022. Despite years of growth – and the late 2025 correction – NVDA shares appear still to be a strong buy at the onset of 2026.

Looking at the Wall Street analyst consensus, it is clear that the bullishness has far from faded. In fact, Nvidia stock is expected to rise by an average of 40.91% over the next 12 months, according to data retrieved by Finbold from TipRanks on January 2.

NVDA stock 12-month price target. Source: TipRanks
The most recent rating revisions – those published between Christmas and New Year’s Day – are likewise uniformly positive, as they all rank NVDA stock as a ‘buy’ and forecast rallies between 26% and 60.86%.

Specifically, the least optimistic of these, the one issued by UBS’ Timothy Arcuri on December 29, forecasts a 26% rise from the latest closing price of $186.50 to $235. The most bullish, provided by C. J. Muse of Cantor Fitzgerald on December 26, sees a rally to $300.

Nvidia’s success on the business side and the favorable political climate all appear to back such optimism.

Nvidia bound to hit the ground running in 2026
Perhaps the first expected upward catalyst is expected already in February as Nvidia is set to resume chip exports to China. 

Though the exact material circumstances of re-entering the market are hard to gauge – the U.S. government is set to take 25% of sales, and China is expected to keep prioritizing domestic production – renewed presence in the world’s second economy in nominal, and first by ‘PPP’, is sure to drive investor confidence.

Similarly, the semiconductor giant’s technological advancements remain impressive, and, as impactful as the Blackwell series of chips has been, 2026 will bring even more cutting-edge Rubin (R100) architecture.

Why Nvidia stock could struggle in 2026
Still, the picture isn’t as rosy upon the second look. The rapid arrival of Rubin highlights a concern many have been voicing since the apparently circular structure of artificial intelligence (AI) investment deals became widely known.

Hardware components have a limited shelf life under the best of circumstances, and between the development of new architecture and data center wear and tear, any large orders are liable to swiftly become obsolete.

Another pressure point can be expected from rising competition. Major technology firms such as Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) are already developing more tailor-made chips for their own use, and both Chinese and American semiconductor firms appear to be catching up.

With Nvidia’s products historically being on the pricier side and NVDA’s market cap exceeding the annual GDP of Germany at one point in 2025, many data center operators and investors may accelerate their migration to cheaper alternatives.

Whatever the future may bring, it is undeniable that Nvidia shares have performed well in the last 12 months. The semiconductor giant started 2025 trading at $138.31 and rose 34.84% to reach the year’s final closing price of $186.50.

NVDA stock 12-month price chart. Source: Google
Not only did NVDA outperform the market as a whole, but it also demonstrated incredible staying power even amidst heightened valuation, as the 34% rise came in the wake of the 1,000% rally between late 2022 and December 31, 2024.

Featured image via Shutterstock

Lululemon and Nike are vying for the same athleisure consumer, but they approach the market from contrasting perspectives. Lululemon stock (NASDAQ: LULU) focuses on premium pricing and maintaining margins, while Nike (NYSE: NKE) seeks global reach and volume.

HomeETFs and Funds AnalysisETF Analysis

SummaryQLC offers investors a diversified portfolio that's similar in structure to the S&P 500 Index but is designed specifically to emphasize the quality, value, and momentum factors.The ETF has $729 million in assets under management—a solid amount, though its coverage on SA is limited, despite outperforming SPY over the last five years.FlexShares US Quality Large Cap Index Fund ETF's longer-term returns aren't as impressive, but its current factor mix is attractive. I was able to verify its solid quality and strong momentum features through fundamental analysis.I also calculated that the fund trades at 24.55x trailing earnings, 3.41 points cheaper than SPY. That makes up for its slightly lower historical earnings growth rate.This slight value lean could be beneficial if SPY's ambitious EPS growth expectations don't materialize in 2026. Therefore, given its low risk relative to SPY, I rate QLC a 'Buy.'Fokusiert/iStock via Getty Images

Investment Thesis Over the last five years, the FlexShares US Quality Large Cap Index Fund (QLC) has quietly outperformed the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by maximizing exposure to the quality, value, and momentum factors. As

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SPY either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Although Dogecoin has kick-started the new year showing mixed price action, speculative activity surrounding the leading meme asset signals growing optimism among small and large traders.

As of Thursday, Jan. 1, Dogecoin has recorded a massive 11.96% increase in its open interest following growing optimism surrounding the new year.

Notably, this on-chain metric represents the sum of unsettled active futures contracts that investors have committed to Dogecoin, which often reflects heightening investors’ confidence.

HOT Stories

Dogecoin open interest surpasses 13.58 billion DOGEData showcased by on-chain analytics firm CoinGlass shows that the amount of Dogecoin committed to its futures market has reached a massive 3.58 million tokens over the last day.

The surge in the asset’s open interest, which has also triggered an increase in its trading price, suggests that holders are anticipating a major price rebound in the new year.

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The surge in Doge’s futures activity suggests that investors are increasingly betting on a potential surge in the price of Dogecoin, which could drive the asset to reclaim previous highs.

As bullish momentum within the Dogecoin ecosystem continues to build, investors are willing to pour in more capital into the leading meme token, propelling it for a big rally in January.

Dogecoin trading volume soars 96%The surge in Dogecoin’s futures activity has triggered a sharp increase in its price, which has soared from a low of $0.1162 to an impressive $0.125 on Jan. 1.

While it appears that momentum has returned to the market, Dogecoin’s trading volume has soared massively by 96.51%, triggering a price increase of 3.31% over the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Source: CoinMarketCap Gate.io and Binance traders have shown the most interest as they account for 28.09% and 20.81% of the total open interest, respectively.

$Bitcoin may have just crossed a historic line. For over a decade, the market followed a familiar rhythm tied closely to its halving schedule. That rhythm now appears disrupted. Instead of accelerating higher after the most recent halving, Bitcoin ended the following year lower — something that had never happened before.

This shift doesn’t necessarily signal weakness. Instead, it may point to a deeper transformation in how Bitcoin moves and what truly drives its price today.

The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle That Defined the PastHistorically, Bitcoin price action followed a remarkably consistent structure. Each halving reduced new supply, triggering a powerful reaction in the years that followed.

In previous cycles:

The halving year often ended positiveThe year after the halving typically delivered the strongest gainsA market peak followed, leading into a prolonged bear marketThis pattern held through multiple cycles, shaping expectations across the entire crypto market.

Why This Cycle Looks DifferentThe most recent halving year ended strongly, aligning with historical behavior. What changed came afterward. Instead of extending the rally, the following year closed in negative territory, breaking a pattern that had remained intact for 14 years.

This doesn’t mean Bitcoin failed. It means the forces influencing price action have evolved. So as you prepare the buy Bitcoin, make sure to understand where to get in.

What Drives Bitcoin Today Is No Longer the SameEarlier Bitcoin cycles were largely fueled by two dominant factors: aggressive supply reductions and retail-driven speculation. Those dynamics still exist, but they no longer operate in isolation.

Today, Bitcoin responds far more to:

Global liquidity conditionsInterest rate expectationsInstitutional inflows and outflowsBroader economic and business cyclesAs Bitcoin becomes more integrated into traditional financial systems, its behavior increasingly mirrors macro assets rather than purely speculative instruments.

The Halving Still Matters, Just Less Than BeforeThe halving remains structurally important, but its direct impact has diminished. In early cycles, each halving removed a significant portion of daily new supply. In the most recent event, the reduction was comparatively small.

As Bitcoin’s total supply grows and market depth increases, halving events create less immediate pressure. Instead of triggering explosive moves on their own, they now act as a background factor within a much larger liquidity framework.

From a Fixed Cycle to a Liquidity-Driven MarketRather than following a clean four-year rhythm, Bitcoin appears to be transitioning into a liquidity-driven cycle. Price movements are increasingly shaped by capital availability, monetary policy, and institutional positioning rather than fixed supply shocks.

This shift suggests maturity, not failure. Bitcoin may be evolving from a predictable cyclical asset into one that reacts dynamically to global financial conditions.

Julio Moreno pointed to Bitcoin’s sustained move below its one-year moving average as a key technical confirmation, alongside weakening network activity, profitability, demand, and liquidity metrics. Bitcoin ended 2025 lower than where it began and is trading near $88,500. Meanwhile, data from Polymarket shows restrained upside expectations for BTC, with traders assigning just a 21% probability of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 before 2027. 

Bitcoin Bear Market Signals GrowBitcoin may already be several weeks into a new bear market phase, according to on-chain and technical indicators tracked by CryptoQuant. During a recent episode of the Milk Road show, CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno explained that the majority of metrics used in the firm’s bull score index turned bearish in early November and have not yet shown signs of recovery.

The bull score index ranges from 0 to 100, and aggregates several indicators including network activity, investor profitability, Bitcoin demand, and market liquidity. According to Moreno, the final confirmation for him came when Bitcoin’s price fell below its one-year moving average,which is a long-term technical indicator widely used to assess broader market trends. He described this move as a clear signal that the market shifted into bearish territory, as the one-year moving average often acts as a dividing line between bull and bear cycles.

Bitcoin began 2025 trading close to $93,000 before rallying to a peak of roughly $126,080 in October. However, it ended the year lower than where it started, according to data from CoinCodex. At press time, Bitcoin was trading near $88,500, proving that momentum has weakened despite optimism from analysts who expected 2026 to be a strong growth year for the asset.

BTC’s price action over the past year (Source: CoinCodex)

Moreno believes that if the bear market thesis holds, Bitcoin could eventually bottom between $56,000 and $60,000 in the coming year. This estimate is based on Bitcoin’s realized price, which represents the average price at which current holders acquired their coins. Historically, Bitcoin prices have tended to fall back toward realized price levels during bear markets after deviating above them in bull cycles.

A decline to that range would represent a drawdown of about 55% from Bitcoin’s all-time high. Moreno explained that while this is a big drop, it would still be less severe than previous bear markets, which saw declines of 70% to 80%. In that sense, the current downturn could be viewed as comparatively mild.

He also argued that this bear market seems structurally more stable than past cycles. Unlike 2022, when the collapse of major players like Terra, Celsius Network, and FTX triggered widespread panic, the current market has not experienced similar systemic failures. Moreno also pointed to steady accumulation by institutional investors and ETFs as factors that could help cushion downside pressure and support long-term market stability.

Polymarket Traders Also Skeptical of Bitcoin RallyMeanwhile, prediction market traders on Polymarket are showing relatively cautious expectations for Bitcoin’s price trajectory, and assigned just a 21% probability that the cryptocurrency will reach $150,000 before the end of 2026. The odds prove that there is a sense of hesitation among traders, even as many analysts argue that Bitcoin’s next major bull phase may be delayed rather than canceled.

Bitcoin’s price odds on Polymarket

According to Polymarket’s active market asking what price Bitcoin will hit before 2027, the highest confidence bet currently sits at $100,000, which traders assign an 80% probability. Beyond that level, confidence drops sharply. 

Bitcoin reaching $120,000 is priced at a 45% chance, while the probability falls to 35% at $130,000, 28% at $140,000, and just 21% at $150,000. Even $120,000 would still sit below Bitcoin’s previous all-time high.

Market participants seem to be factoring in structural changes to Bitcoin’s historical price behavior. The four-year cycle tied to halving events, which previously provided a rough framework for forecasting bull and bear markets, appears to be losing its predictive power after Bitcoin closed 2025 in negative territory. With that pattern breaking down, traders may be reassessing how much weight to give long-standing cycle-based models, opening the door for new dynamics to shape price action.

Example of BTC’s 4-year cycle

Despite subdued expectations in prediction markets, macro and regulatory developments also still fuel bullish narratives among analysts. Anticipation around President Donald Trump’s upcoming announcement of a new US Federal Reserve chair increased speculation that interest rate cuts could follow, which is a backdrop that already helped push gold and silver to record highs in late 2025. 

At the same time, proposed US crypto legislation, including the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act, is expected to provide clearer regulatory guardrails that could encourage deeper institutional participation.

Major financial institutions like Standard Chartered, Strategy, and Bernstein forecast Bitcoin reaching $150,000 in 2026, while more aggressive projections from Tom Lee of Fundstrat place long-term targets as high as $200,000 to $250,000.

Journalist

Posted: January 2, 2026

Pepe [PEPE] rallied by 26.9% in the last 24 hours, with a daily trading volume surge of 300%. It was a strong performance towards the end of the week. And, a quiet weekend without a sizeable retracement would be perfect for PEPE bulls.

Whether they will get this remains to be seen though. The hike in trading volume for PEPE was not a consistent trend, but only accompanied the gains made over the previous day.

Bitcoin [BTC] crept back toward the $90k-resistance, where it had faced rejection the previous week. Traders should not expect Bitcoin to break above this key resistance anytime soon and bolster the altcoin market sentiment.

Challenging the overhead supply zone

Source: PEPE/USDT on TradingView

PEPE challenged the 1-day timeframe’s supply zone at the $0.0000044-$0.0000049. The bulls were victorious in this skirmish and seemed to be on the verge of forcing a bullish structure shift.

The OBV, which had been on a steady downtrend in recent weeks, was slowly climbing higher too. This ascent was not explosive though, and does not guarantee a resounding bullish outcome for the memecoin.

The RSI signaled a bullish momentum shift with a reading of 67. A daily trading session close above $0.000005 would shift the structure bullishly, giving swing traders a reason to go long.

Exploring the bullish breakout
In a recent report, AMBCrypto had illustrated that $0.0000042 was a pivotal short-term resistance zone. PEPE bulls achieved a breakout above this local resistance on Monday, 29 December, but it failed to defend their gains.

Another attempt on Thursday, 01 January, had more success. At the time of writing, PEPE had a strong short-term bullish bias.

Traders’ call to action – Divergence could see a minor pullback

Source: PEPE/USDT on TradingView

The 1-hour chart displayed a bearish momentum divergence in recent trading hours. This suggested a price dip was close by, but not guaranteed. In case of a pullback, the $0.000046-$0.0000049 region could give a buying opportunity.

This buying opportunity depends on what happens on Friday. Friday’s trading session close would be key for swing traders to watch. A breach of the $0.000005 swing high would mean they can look to go long, targeting the $0.0000062-resistance next.

Failure to close the day’s trading above the swing high would be a shorting opportunity as it would represent a failed breakout and a warning of subsequent bearish strength.

Final Thoughts

The popular memecoin PEPE shrugged off its stupor and has been making rapid gains in recent hours.
Demand must be sustained over the coming days to keep the rally going past the swing high from earlier in December.

Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion

TLDR:

Yield Token subsidization enables protocols to generate higher APYs with reduced capital expenditure
Rising YT demand pushes Principal Token prices lower, creating superior fixed-rate yields for PT holders
Money market loops allow users to leverage discounted PT positions through lending protocol deposits
PENDLE holds $2.0 support with potential bounce toward $3.0-$3.5 or invalidation below current zone

Pendle has introduced a mechanism that transforms how protocols approach liquidity incentives through yield token subsidization. 

The platform now enables protocols to achieve higher returns with reduced capital requirements compared to traditional incentive models. This development positions the protocol as more than a yield marketplace.

The innovation centers on the relationship between Principal Tokens and Yield Tokens within the protocol’s structure. 

Market observers note this approach creates opportunities for protocols to attract total value locked more efficiently. Meanwhile, the token trades at critical support levels that could determine its near-term trajectory.

Yield Token Subsidization Creates New Arbitrage Opportunities
Crypto analyst Jordi outlined how the subsidization mechanism works in a detailed thread on X. 

Pendle is rewriting the rules of liquidity incentives.

The ability to subsidize Yield Tokens (YT) is a massive game-changer for the ecosystem.

Here is why this matters:

1/ The Yield-Principal Arbitrage:

When you subsidize YT, more people want to buy it. Since the underlying… https://t.co/mIS2yzGT6m pic.twitter.com/dll9hSr04a

— Jordi in Cryptoland (@lordjorx) January 1, 2026

When protocols subsidize yield tokens, demand for these assets increases among traders. Since every position consists of both principal and yield token components, rising YT prices push PT values lower.

This inverse relationship produces higher fixed annual percentage yields for principal token holders. The effect creates competitive fixed-rate offerings that stand out in the current market. 

Protocols spend less capital on incentives while generating substantial yield percentages for participants.

The strategy also enables what traders call the “money market loop” through lending protocols. Users can deposit discounted Principal Tokens as collateral and borrow against these positions. 

They then reinvest borrowed funds into additional PT positions, creating a leverage cycle. This mechanism has the potential to drive significant growth in protocol deposits.

Technical Analysis Points to Critical Support Zone
Market analyst CryptoPulse identified major support for PENDLE at current price levels around $2.0. The token has declined sharply but now sits at horizontal support that held during previous tests. Historical price action shows this level attracted buyers multiple times over recent months.

🚨 $PENDLE at major support

Price has sold off sharply and is now sitting at a long-term horizontal support that has held multiple times in the past 👀📉

As long as this support holds, downside may start to slow here. A clean bounce could open the door for a move back toward… pic.twitter.com/8K3QIkmxov

— CryptoPulse (@CryptoPulse_CRU) January 2, 2026

A sustained bounce from this support could trigger moves toward the $3.0 to $3.5 range. Technical traders watch these levels closely as indicators of market sentiment. The setup presents defined risk parameters for position management.

However, a weekly candle close below the $2.0 threshold would invalidate the bullish scenario. Such a move could open the door to further downside price action. 

Traders consider this level critical for maintaining the current market structure and preventing additional losses.

The combination of protocol innovation and technical positioning creates a notable moment for the asset. Both fundamental developments and price action warrant attention from market participants.

10h05 ▪
5
min read ▪ by
Luc Jose A.

Summarize this article with:

The current stability of bitcoin may conceal a sudden reversal. While the asset opened 2026 at $87,500, rarely combined technical signals, bullish divergence of the RSI, extreme compression of the Bollinger bands, indicate an imminent surge in volatility. Several analysts mention a possible rebound. However, attention also focuses on another breaking point: the announced end of the four-year cycle, a historical pillar of crypto strategies, now challenged by influential market voices.

In brief

Bitcoin begins 2026 at $87,500, in an apparent calm that could mask strong volatility to come.
Several rare technical signals, including a bullish RSI divergence and a historic compression of Bollinger bands, catch analysts’ attention.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle theory is challenged by major figures in the sector.
Influential voices believe Bitcoin is entering a new market phase, less cyclical, more influenced by traditional finance.

Technical signals announce a possible surge in volatility
While some experts anticipate a historic Bull Run in 2026, others observe an unusual alignment of indicators suggesting strong volatility ahead.

On X (formerly Twitter), trader Jelle notably highlighted : “new year, new start. We have a confirmed bullish divergence on the 3-day time frame, right at the level of a key support”. He refers here to a bullish divergence on the RSI (Relative Strength Index) on a three-day timeframe, generally interpreted as an early signal for a rise.

On his side, analyst Quantdata21 draws attention to another phenomenon : an extreme compression of the Bollinger bands. “There is only one other time when daily Bollinger bands were this tight, with a weekly RSI below 40. It was in January 2023, and everyone remembers what happened to bitcoin afterwards”, he writes, recalling the price surge at that time.

The following elements contribute to fueling the hypothesis of an imminent breakou t:

A bullish RSI divergence on three days, detected while BTC tests a key support ;

A weekly RSI below 40, a level rarely reached in a price compression context ;

A record compression of the Bollinger bands, with bandwidth as low as in January 2023, a period that preceded a strong bullish surge ;

A context of the return of traditional markets (TradFi) after the year-end truce, which could catalyze sudden movements.

For experienced technical analysts, the coincidence of these indicators constitutes fertile ground for a phase of increased volatility. Even if the direction of the movement remains to be confirmed, the momentum seems to lean towards the bullish side in the short term, according to several market participants.

Towards the end of the 4-year cycle : a new era for bitcoin ?
Alongside technical analysis, another discussion is gaining intensity within the cryptosphere: the challenge to bitcoin’s famous four-year cycle.

On December 31st, the well-known entrepreneur and maximalist Simon Dixon, founder of Bnk To The Future, declared on X : “goodbye to the 4-year Bitcoin cycle”, stating that 2026 would mark the beginning of a “new era” for BTC.

This statement echoes a reality: for the first time since the implementation of the post-halving model, bitcoin closed an entire year in the red after a halving, a situation that calls into question the robustness of the cyclical model used for over ten years.

This break is partly explained by the structural transformation of the market. The massive arrival of institutional capital, new investment vehicles (ETFs, regulated derivatives), and the growing financialization of the ecosystem seem to dilute the influence of historical events like the halvings.

In this context, some analysts, like Michaël van de Poppe, prefer to bet on more contemporary market dynamics. He believes that the recent growth in bitcoin accessibility could be enough to propel the price towards “$90,000 in the coming weeks”.

While technical signals accumulate and historical landmarks falter, bitcoin’s future seems to open on unprecedented ground. In this uncertain context, Mow predicts a historic bullish decade for bitcoin, a prospect which, if confirmed, would sustainably redefine investment strategies in the crypto ecosystem.

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Luc Jose A.

Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019.
Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.

Summary

Lorentz and Maxwell upgrades enabled parallel execution, cutting block times from ~3s to ~0.75s with a 0.25s target and slashing fees by ~98%.​
Daily active users hit ~4.8m and transactions topped 15m per day, boosted by four.meme and Aster’s perpetuals plus a gasless stablecoin promo.​
BNB broke through four digits while quarterly burns removed ~6.25m BNB, reinforcing CoinMarketCap’s view that growth was structural, not speculative.

BNB Chain’s 2025 upgrades cut fees 98%, push blocks below 1s, lift BNB to new ATH as meme trading and gasless stablecoin payments drive record on-chain activity.

BNB Chain’s performance improvements amid CZ pardon
BNB Chain experienced significant performance improvements and user growth in 2025, according to a year-end recap published by CoinMarketCap.

The blockchain network implemented two major upgrades during the year. The Lorentz upgrade in April and Maxwell upgrade in June introduced parallel execution and enhanced instruction capabilities, designed to support decentralized finance and artificial intelligence workloads more efficiently, according to the report.

Block times decreased from approximately three seconds to about 0.75 seconds, with a longer-term target of 0.25 seconds, the data showed. Transaction fees fell by approximately 98 percent during this period.

BNB Chain reached approximately 4.8 million daily active users in December and processed more than 15 million transactions per day, according to CoinMarketCap. The platform four.meme, launched in October, generated significant activity, briefly surpassing Solana’s Pump.fun in 24-hour revenue and contributing to BNB Chain ranking first among Layer-1 networks by decentralized exchange volume at its peak. More than 100,000 new traders joined the platform in a single week during this period, the report stated.

The BNB token reached a new all-time high in October, surpassing the four-digit price level. The 30th through 33rd quarterly token burns removed approximately 6.25 million BNB from circulation, according to CoinMarketCap.

The Aster platform attracted more than two million users for perpetuals trading, the data showed. A zero-fee promotion covering gas fees for stablecoin transactions, extended through January 2026, increased weekly stablecoin volume and more than doubled supply on the network.

CoinMarketCap characterized BNB Chain’s 2025 growth as structural rather than speculative, citing faster transaction execution, meme-token activity serving as an onboarding mechanism, and reduced friction for stablecoin payments as key factors in the network’s expansion.

Cover image via U.Today

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

Early in 2026, Shiba Inu is in a position that appears to be quiet on the outside but is actually quite busy. SHIB is currently trading just below a thin resistance zone that has repeatedly capped price action since late Q4, 2025, following months of consistent decline and compression.

Shiba Inu gets pressuredCompared to earlier unsuccessful rebounds, the current setup is far more beneficial. Selling pressure has significantly declined in the $0.0000075-$0.0000080 range, where the price is currently hovering. Despite the overall downward trend, volatility has declined, volume has stabilized, and downward follow-through has been constrained. Instead of being in complete control, this type of behavior usually manifests when sellers are worn out.

SHIB/USDT Chart by TradingViewThe distribution on the chart no longer appears to be aggressive but rather balanced. Technically speaking, the 26 EMA and 50 EMA continue to function as overhead resistance, and SHIB is still below its major moving averages. That is the reality of the bear market. Crucially, though, there is now much less of a gap between the price and those averages.

HOT Stories

Volume is not there yetThere is not much historical volume to absorb buying pressure should momentum emerge, because the resistance immediately above current levels is thin. Because of this, a breakout in this situation only needs consistency rather than a powerful catalyst. Additionally, since September 2025, this is the cleanest compression structure SHIB has created. Back then, a sharp directional move was preceded by a similar tightening range.

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Context now makes a difference: expectations are low, sentiment is subdued, and prices are lower. Because no one is positioned for them, that is typically when breakouts hurt the most. A clear push above short-term resistance and a recovery of the 26 EMA would constitute a breakout scenario. In that case, SHIB could test higher resistance zones fast and with minimal friction.

However, failure in this case does not necessarily mean collapse. Near present lows, strong demand has already developed, and buyers have consistently defended this area. A decision point is emerging in early 2026.

SHIB has not confirmed a reversal, but it is no longer trending sharply downward. How the price responds to this small resistance band is what matters right now. The next move can happen quickly when there is little liquidity and sellers are less active.

Once it begins, it probably will not wait for late buyers. It is not quite hype time yet. This is positioning territory. Furthermore, SHIB has not appeared to be on the verge of a significant breakout structurally in months.

The community backlash was quite evident after the latest Pi Network post.

The Core Team behind the popular project recently published its own 2025 recap, in which it praised the significant progress it has achieved, perhaps most notably of which was the actual mainnet and token launch.

However, it also failed to provide any actual goals for next year, aside from some vague words, which were quickly criticized by some of its fan base.

The Backlash
In its yearly recap, Pi Network’s team said 2025 was a “defining” one for the project due to the Open Network and PI token launch in February. This opened the door for “Pi’s ecosystem to interact with the broader blockchain world – a milestone achieved after more than six years of building Pi’s infrastructure and community, ensuring real utility was ready at launch.”

It continued by highlighting the subsequent updates, AI introductions, progress on the KYC scene, the release of the Pi App Studio, Pi Network Ventures, and so on. It also outlined several of its community-focused initiatives, such as the Q3/4 Hackathon, the ecosystem directory staking, and the .pi Domains Auction.

When it came to setting 2026 goals, though, the post was rather imprecise and perhaps equivocal. It reads:

“The Pi community’s efforts this year enabled the launch of Open Network and the many apps, utilities, and features that will continue to be worked on. Pi Network in 2026 will be shaped by Pi’s long-term strategies and planning, in addition to Pioneers, developers, and partners building and using the ecosystem together.”

Given the lack of specifics, a significant portion of the comments below the X post turned negative. One user said that “years of hype, delays, vague timelines, and zero accountability have destroyed market confidence.” Another added, “talking to the Pi team is like someone painting in the air! Useless!”

A third one claimed “nothing good comes out of the Pi ecosystem,” while OLOBO had some painful predictions for the project’s native token:

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Bitcoin (BTC) Plunges Before the FOMC Meeting, Pi Network (PI) Soars by 15%: Market Watch

“The slowest project in history. The hypes have faded. By June 2026, Pi would be trading at $0.001.”

PI Misses the Rally
After several days of sideways action, many altcoins have posted impressive gains today. Some of them are even placed around Pi Network’s PI in terms of market cap, such as ENA, which has rocketed by 10%. However, PI’s price action has remained muted as the asset continues to fight to stay above the $0.20 support despite some promising signs.

What could be somewhat worrisome for PI’s short-term performance is the fact that more than 6 million tokens will be unlocked today, which could increase the selling pressure. After the middle of the month, the number will gradually decline to under 4 million at times, which could provide some market stability.

PI Token Unlock Schedule. Source: PiScan

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Spot BTC ETFs registered their sharpest outflows on record through November and December as prices dropped 20%. Jan 2, 2026, 7:45 a.m.

The once-super-hot U.S.-listed spot crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) ran into their worst stretch on record in the final two months of 2025, as investors yanked billions, capping a brutal year-end for a product that has been a key driver of institutional adoption.

The 11 spot ETFs cumulatively registered a net outflow of $1.09 billion in December after a much steeper $3.48 billion in November. That amounts to a combined two-month redemption worth $4.57 billion, the largest since their debut in January 2024, according to data source SoSoValue.

STORY CONTINUES BELOW

The wave of outflows indicates a marked decline in institutional appetite for the leading cryptocurrency and coincided with a 20% slide in bitcoin’s price over the same period. The previous worst two-month stretch came in February and March, when investors pulled a total of $4.32 billion.

The U.S.-listed ether ETFs had a rough year-end, too, as investors withdrew over $2 billion from these funds over November and December.

These outflows seem to paint a grim picture of the market, but some experts disagree.

"ETF outflows and steady liquidations are weighing on sentiment, but the structure does not resemble panic. Instead, this appears to be a market in equilibrium, as weak hands are exiting into year-end and stronger balance sheets are absorbing supply," Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based Giottus exchange, said in an email.

"The price is compressing as both sides wait for liquidity to return in January," Subburaj added.

While bitcoin and ether ETFs lost investor favor, XRP ETFs attracted over $1 billion in inflows in November and December. Meanwhile, Solana's SOL ETFs pulled in more than $500 million.

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KuCoin Hits Record Market Share as 2025 Volumes Outpace Crypto Market

Dec 22, 2025

KuCoin captured a record share of centralised exchange volume in 2025, with more than $1.25tn traded as its volumes grew faster than the wider crypto market.

What to know:

KuCoin recorded over $1.25 trillion in total trading volume in 2025, equivalent to an average of roughly $114 billion per month, marking its strongest year on record.This performance translated into an all-time high share of centralised exchange volume, as KuCoin’s activity expanded faster than aggregate CEX volumes, which slowed during periods of lower market volatility.Spot and derivatives volumes were evenly split, each exceeding $500 billion for the year, signalling broad-based usage rather than reliance on a single product line.Altcoins accounted for the majority of trading activity, reinforcing KuCoin’s role as a primary liquidity venue beyond BTC and ETH at a time when majors saw more muted turnover.Even as overall crypto volumes softened mid-year, KuCoin maintained elevated baseline activity, indicating structurally higher user engagement rather than short-lived volume spikes.View Full Report

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Bitcoin's squeeze sets stage for major price swing

2 hours ago

BTC's volatility bands have compressed to levels that have historically paved the way for a renewed price turbulence.

What to know:

Bitcoin's price has been stable between $85,000 and $90,000 for two weeks, leading to a Bollinger Bands squeeze.The Bollinger Bands squeeze suggests a potential for significant price movement soon.Historical patterns show that such squeezes often precede major price swings.Read full story

TLDR:

Hyperliquid operates without private investors, market maker deals, or protocol fees to companies.
Genesis distribution went entirely to early users, with core contributors excluded from allocation.
Portfolio Margin could generate over $3M annually with 20% capital utilization at 4% yield rates.
The revenue model allocates 90% to users and 10% to platform growth without additional trading fees.

Hyperliquid founder Jeff has reinforced the platform’s dedication to maintaining credible neutrality in decentralized finance. 

The protocol operates without private investors, market maker deals, or protocol fees to any company. This approach mirrors Bitcoin’s original permissionless ethos and sets Hyperliquid apart from traditional crypto ventures.

The platform’s genesis distribution went entirely to early users while excluding core contributors from the initial allocation. 

All distribution data remains verifiable on-chain without obfuscation. This commitment to fairness comes as the protocol launches Portfolio Margin, creating a new revenue stream that could generate millions in additional income.

Commitment to Credible Neutrality and Fair Distribution
Jeff emphasized that integrity remains a core value for Hyperliquid’s operations and long-term vision. According to his statement, the house of all finance must maintain credible neutrality. 

This philosophy means rejecting private investor funding and refusing special arrangements with market makers.

Integrity has always been one of Hyperliquid's core values.

The house of all finance must be credibly neutral. This means no private investors, no market maker deals, and no protocol fees to any company.

The initial state of any blockchain is a crucial part of its story that… https://t.co/5Y4hKknJDP

— jeff.hl (@chameleon_jeff) January 1, 2026

The platform’s initial blockchain state reflects this commitment through its transparent genesis distribution. Core contributors voluntarily excluded themselves from the early user allocation. 

The decision follows Bitcoin’s original vision of creating a permissionless network accessible to everyone.

This fairness principle frustrates some users and builders accustomed to preferential treatment in crypto projects. 

Labs maintains zero tolerance for team members showing integrity concerns. The approach requires doing things “the hard way” as a community rather than taking shortcuts.

Portfolio Margin Launch Creates New Revenue Model
The recent Portfolio Margin launch has opened a revenue stream that many market observers initially overlooked. 

Crypto analyst Jordi calculated potential earnings based on Hyperliquid’s current $4 billion total value locked. The projections reveal substantial income generation from previously idle capital sitting on the platform.

Hyperliquid’s New Million-Dollar Business Strategy.

The recent launch of Portfolio Margin has opened a massive new revenue stream that most are still overlooking.

With $4B TVL currently sitting on the platform, I did the math to see how much extra revenue this could actually… pic.twitter.com/kH24Jzsah3

— Jordi in Cryptoland (@lordjorx) January 2, 2026

Lending protocols typically generate “quiet” revenue that compounds at scale through small percentage yields. 

Assuming capital utilization between 5% and 30% with annual percentage yields from 0.5% to 8%, the growth trajectory appears substantial. Conservative estimates using 20% capital utilization and 4% yield project over $3 million in additional annual revenue.

The revenue model allocates 90% of earnings directly to users while retaining 10% for platform growth. This structure allows users to earn returns on capital that was previously parked without generating income. The platform builds sustainable revenue without imposing additional fees on traders or liquidity providers.

The portfolio margin system enables more sophisticated trading strategies beyond simple lending income. 

These advanced strategies will naturally drive higher trading volume and deeper market participation. Increased activity creates a flywheel effect that generates additional protocol revenue while maintaining the fairness principles Jeff outlined.

XRP ended 2025 in the red despite many positive developments but is slightly in the green now.

January 2 has begun on the right foot for most cryptocurrency assets, with BTC challenging $89,000, while ETH has seemingly reclaimed the $3,000 level.

Ripple’s XRP is also in the green daily, which is the first positive sign in a while. Before that, the asset lost its fourth place to BNB after dropping by more than 20% over the past month.

Now, though, data shared by Ali Martinez indicate that there could be even more good news on the horizon for XRP, as the TD Sequential just flashed a buy signal on a more macro scale.

TD Sequential flashed a macro buy signal on $XRP, suggesting a rebound soon. pic.twitter.com/Iz7o8MsmTW

— Ali Charts (@alicharts) January 1, 2026

The TD Sequential is a technical indicator that shows the underlying asset’s exhaustion in either direction and could predict a price reversal. When it comes to XRP, it has had a successful streak in determining its next move, whether upward or not.

Ripple’s cross-border token is now 1.7% up on the day, but it still sits below the crucial $1.90 level, which has turned support into resistance.

CRYPTOWZRD also outlined the daily candle closing higher, but wasn’t convinced entirely about the asset’s future price performance. The analyst noted that the market needs to “see healthier movement from here and a better chart structure.” For now, XRP just remains within a small range-bound area without a clear breakout sign.

You may also like:

Why Ripple (XRP) Downtrend May Deepen Amid Rising Exchange Inflows

XRP Leverage Unwinds as Speculators Exit, Open Interest Hits 2024 Lows

Ripple (XRP) ETFs Continue to Outperform BTC, ETH Funds Despite Cooling Inflows

It’s worth noting that despite the mid-year price surge to a new all-time high, Ripple’s native token ended 2025 in the red. This came despite the successful launch of several spot XRP ETFs in the US, and the highly impressive moves made by the company behind the token.

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About the author

Jordan got into crypto in 2016 by trading and investing. He began writing about blockchain technology in 2017 and now serves as CryptoPotato's Assistant Editor-in-Chief. He has managed numerous crypto-related projects and is passionate about all things blockchain.

The Flow Foundation has announced Phase Two of its recovery efforts following a $3.9 million hack that halted the Flow blockchain in late 2025. According to the foundation, work is ongoing, and the next phase of the restoration is expected to take several days to complete.

The breach has rattled parts of the crypto ecosystem, sparking conversations about safeguarding users, exchanges, and governance when a blockchain faces a security compromise.

Flow notes that developers had “identified a path to restore EVM [Ethereum Virtual Machine] functionality” as it addressed its non-EVM chain, Cadence. Meanwhile, the fix is in progress to clean up the exploit on the EVM environment, and the enquiry has been frozen for recent fixes.

The foundation stated that it would then test the fixes and retest any remaining maintenance tasks, adding that it planned to take most worlds offline before restoring the vast majority of them to full availability as soon as it deemed it safe to do so. The current progress report already shows that accounts are being returned and fake tokens are being reverted daily, with on-chain audits accessible to everyone.

Developers restore EVM as Cadence recovery moves forward
The incident occurred on December 27, 2025, when a variety of NFTs and other assets were transferred off the network – approximately $3.9 million in total – via cross-chain bridges after an attacker exploited vulnerabilities in the execution layer. According to the Flow Foundation, the network was halted after validators intervened to stop further losses.

Initially, Flow considered reverting the blockchain to a point in time before the exploit occurred. Critics warned that a reversal of the blocks could also reverse legitimate transactions, hide the bridges and exchanges used to move stolen money, and undermine investor confidence.

Then, after consulting with seniors, the foundation switched course to a targeted recovery approach. This scheme still maintains most valid transactions on-chain and only processes transactions that fail to act correctly. Under this plan, affected accounts have their assets temporarily frozen as forensic analysis is carried out to identify and fully remediate the illicitly minted tokens.

The foundation stated that the “scalpel” approach can enable them to resolve the issue and protect their principles of decentralization – not only for validators, but also for bridge providers, exchanges, and independent forensic partners.

Security breach disrupts the Flow ecosystem and triggers market volatility
The impact of the exploit has been felt throughout Flow’s ecosystem. The network freeze also temporarily shut down certain services, like the NFT lending service, where “a small percentage” of borrowers were unable to repay their maturing loans due to the transactions that came to a standstill.

Investors have already felt the impact of the incident. The Flow token (FLOW) has dropped sharply across major exchanges as trading resumed. The decline has fueled broader concerns about risk management practices and raised new questions about the strength and credibility of Flow’s network security model.

Flow Foundation said that after the Dec. 27 hack, a lone account had deposited around 150 million of its FLOW tokens — approximately 10% of what has been released so far and about $54 million at time of writing — to a centralized exchange, swapped most of them into other assets like Bitcoin, then cashed out more than $5 million before operations could be ground to a halt. The group attributed this to flaws in the exchange’s AML/KYC controls, which shifted financial risk onto users who may have unknowingly acquired bogus tokens.

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