Market Signal Briefing

Key Takeaways MMS shares have risen 11.3% over the past month, outperforming the industry's 8.6% gain on strong momentum.MMS has seen upward fiscal 2026 earnings estimate revisions, reflecting growing analyst confidence.MMS revenue growth is driven by government health programs, AI investments and performance-based contracts. Maximus, Inc. (MMS - Free Report) , a leading provider of government health and human services programs globally, has delivered an impressive performance over the past month and shows potential to sustain its momentum in the near term. Consequently, if you haven’t taken advantage of the share price appreciation yet, you should add the stock to your portfolio.

What Makes MMS an Attractive Pick?An Outperformer: A glimpse at the company’s price trend reveals that the stock has had an excellent run over the past month. Shares of Maximus have gained 11.3% compared with the 8.6% rally of the industry it belongs to.

Solid Rank & VGM Score: MMS currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and has a VGM Score of A at present. Our research shows that stocks with a VGM Score of A or B, when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 or 2 (Buy), offer the best investment opportunities for investors. Thus, the company appears to be a compelling investment proposition now. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Northward Estimate Revisions: Over the past 60 days, two estimates for fiscal 2026 have moved northward, reflecting analysts’ confidence in the company. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings has increased 15.8% during this period.

Positive Earnings Surprise History: MMS has an impressive earnings surprise history. The company outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters and missed once, delivering an earnings surprise of 29.3% on average.

Strong Growth Prospects: The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Maximus’s first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings is pegged at $1.84 per share, indicating 14.3% year-over-year growth. For fiscal 2026, the consensus estimate is pegged at $8.19 per share, implying 11.3% year-over-year growth.

Growth Factors: MMS’ revenue growth is primarily driven by its government health and human services programs globally. The company’s business process management expertise and ability to deliver cost-effective, efficient and high-scale solutions position it as a lucrative partner to governments. The rising need for social benefits and safety-net programs for increased longevity and more complex health issues is driving demand for MMS’ services across government and private sectors.

The company relies on its expert workforce in the critical aspects of the design, implementation, and operation of government health and human services programs. The capabilities of its workforce have enabled MMS to deliver performance-based, tech-modernized contracts and gain customers’ trust.

MMS’ innovative and AI investments further differentiate it as a leader in the civilian sector, enhancing customer experience. Its total experience management solution, a FedRAMP (Federal Risk and Authorization Management Program)-secured, modular, flexible, scalable and configurable platform, enables federal agencies to deliver smarter citizen-centric services. AI-driven cloud-based services are also becoming the preferred procurement method for government agencies. The acquisition of Veterans Valuation Services, a provider of Medical Disability Examinations to the U.S. Department, in 2021 has maximized opportunities for new customers.

MMS had a current ratio (a measure of liquidity) of 1.64 at the end of the fiscal fourth quarter of 2025, higher than the industry’s 1.61. A current ratio of more than 1 indicates that the company is well equipped to meet its short-term obligations.

Other Stocks to ConsiderA couple of other top-ranked stocks in the broader Business Services sector are Information Services Group (III - Free Report)  and Charles River Associates (CRAI - Free Report) .

Information Services holds a Zacks Rank #2, at present. III has a long-term earnings growth expectation of 18.5%. The company delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 15.9% on average.

Charles River also has a Zacks Rank of 2, at present, with a long-term earnings growth expectation of 16%. CRAI delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 15% on average.

Jan 14 (Reuters) - Northern Graphite (NGC.V), opens new tab said on Wednesday it signed a preliminary agreement with Saudi Arabian investment firm Al Obeikan Group to jointly develop ​and operate a large-scale battery anode material facility in ‌the kingdom.

The Canadian miner said the roughly $200 million facility would have an initial annual capacity of 25,000 tonnes, with debt financing sourced from Saudi government finance agencies and global commercial banks.

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Northern Graphite shares surged about 30% ‌to C$0.32 in morning trade.

WHY IT'S IMPORTANTThe demand for graphite ​anodes has soared as companies race to secure supplies of battery materials used in electric vehicles amid a global push towards cleaner ‍transportation and fuel.

Northern Graphite said the facility would be scalable over time to meet the rapidly growing global demand for graphite anode materials sourced outside of ⁠China.

CONTEXTCountries, including the United States, are ramping up efforts to reduce ‍dependence on China, which is the top producer of graphite.

Saudi Arabia is also looking ‌to ‌diversify its economy away from oil dependence by expanding into new industries, and positioning the country as a global investment and tourism hub.

BY THE NUMBERSAl Obeikan would own 51% of the joint venture company ⁠while Northern would ⁠hold the rest.

The ​Canadian miner said it expects to start construction of the facility this year with first-phase production beginning in 2028.

Northern added it was in advanced discussions ‍with global battery manufacturers for a long-term offtake agreement for the initial 25,000 tonnes of production.

The company also said the JV project would buy up to 50,000 ​tonnes per annum of graphite from Northern's ‍Namibia project and would fast-track the restart and expansion of the Okanjande mine in ​the African nation.

Reporting by Varun Sahay in Bengaluru; Editing by Vijay Kishore

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi breaks down the latest market news. Google's parent company, Alphabet, has seen its market cap top $4 trillion.

Key Takeaways VST stock rose 2% in a month, beating its industry's 4.8% drop, fueled by key strategic developments.A $4B deal to buy Cogentrix adds 5,500 MW of gas-fired capacity, expanding VST's clean energy footprint.A 20-year 2,600 MW power supply deal with Meta will boost VST's cash flow and earnings visibility. Shares of Vistra Corp. (VST - Free Report) have gained 2% in the past month against the Zacks Utility- Electric Power industry’s decline of 4.8% and the Zacks Utilities sector’s drop of 3%.

Vistra’s shares have gained on the back of two positive developments. The company signed a definitive agreement to acquire Cogentrix Energy, which includes 10 modern natural gas-fired power plants with a combined capacity of about 5,500 MW, for a net purchase price of roughly $4 billion.

Vistra also signed a 20-year power purchase agreement to supply more than 2,600 megawatts (“MW”) of zero-carbon electricity from three of its nuclear facilities to support Meta’s regional operations.

Price Performance (One Month)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Another utility, Duke Energy (DUK - Free Report) , also produces a substantial volume of clean energy from its nuclear generation assets. Duke Energy’s shares have gained 0.6% in the past month.

Should you consider adding VST to your portfolio only based on positive price movements? Let’s delve deeper and find out the factors that can help investors decide whether it is a good entry point to add VST stock to their portfolio.

Factors Contributing Toward VST Stock’s PerformanceVistra’s long-term 2,600 MW power supply agreement with Meta enhances earnings visibility by locking in stable, contracted revenues from a high-quality customer. The company will supply electricity from its nuclear power units. The long-term agreement supports consistent cash flows and highlights Vistra’s capability to reliably serve fast-growing data-center demand, improving asset utilization and returns while positioning it to capture sustained load growth fueled by AI and cloud expansion.

Vistra has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Cogentrix Energy, comprising 10 modern natural gas-fired power plants with nearly 5,500 MW of total capacity, for a net purchase price of about $4 billion. The acquisition represents Vistra’s second opportunistic expansion of the clean energy generation portfolio, enhancing its capacity to serve growing customer demand across key markets.

Rising demand for clean power across Vistra’s service territories is being driven by the rapid growth of AI-powered data centers and increasing electrification of oilfield operations in the Permian Basin. With 41,000 MW of diversified generation capacity across gas, nuclear, coal, solar and storage, Vistra is well positioned to meet rising commercial and industrial power demand. Its strong asset base and footprint in high-growth markets enable the company to capture long-term growth while playing a leading role in the clean energy transition.

Vistra also plays a key role in the U.S. energy transition by deploying advanced energy storage solutions that enhance grid reliability and support higher renewable penetration. Strategic investments in large-scale battery projects position the company to capture accelerating market demand.

VST’s Estimates Moving UpThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for VST’s 2026 earnings per share indicates year-over-year growth of 64.07% on 34.58% increase in total revenues.

VST’s Sales Estimates
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The long-term (three to five years) earnings growth for Vistra is pegged at 11.67%.

VST’s EPS Estimates
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Another utility, NextEra Energy (NEE - Free Report) , has the capability to produce a large volume of clean electricity and is working to increase the clean generation capacity further from current levels. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NEE’s 2026 earnings per share implies year-over-year growth of 8.25% on 15.82% increase in total revenues.

VST Stock’s ROE Higher Than Its IndustryVST’s trailing 12-month return on equity (“ROE”) is 64.04%, way ahead of its industry average of 10.47%. ROE, a profitability measure, reflects how effectively a company is utilizing its shareholders’ funds in its operations to generate income.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Vistra’s Capital Return ProgramVistra continues to increase its shareholders' value through the share repurchase program and dividend payments. The long-term power supply agreement with Meta will further strengthen its earnings.

VST’s board of directors has also approved a quarterly dividend of 22.7 cents for the fourth quarter of 2025. Management is targeting a dividend payment of $300 million annually. VST has raised dividends 17 times in the past five years. For more details on the VST dividend, click here.

Vistra’s board of directors has approved an additional $1 billion for share repurchases. As of Oct. 31, 2025, $2.2 billion remained under the current authorization, which the company expects to fully utilize by the end of 2027.

VST Stock Is Trading at a PremiumVistra is currently trading at a premium valuation compared with the industry. Its forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 20.18X compared with the industry average of 15.36X.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Summing UpVistra’s strong nuclear fleet allows it cater to the rising demand for 24x7 reliable clean energy from the data centers. Management’s decision to acquire Cogentrix Energy will further boost its clean energy generation capacity and cater to the rising demand in the service areas. Vistra’s multi-fuel-based electricity production and focus on clean energy production allow it to benefit from the changing energy landscape.

VST’s sales and earnings per share estimates for 2026 reflect year-over-year growth and its ROE is better than the industry, which makes the stock attractive. It will be a good choice for the existing investors to hold their positions in the Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock.

Key Takeaways New business, stable in-force earnings and favorable longevity trends support RGA's outlook. RGA sees growth from global protection demand and rising retirement and savings needs. Strong cash flow, tech adoption and active capital deployment bolster RGA's long-term path. Reinsurance Group of America (RGA - Free Report) shares are trading at a discount to the Zacks Life Insurance industry. Its forward price-to-book value of 1X is lower than the industry average of 2X, the Finance sector’s 4.36X and the Zacks S&P 500 Composite’s 8.69X. The life insurer has a Value Score of A.

The insurer has a market capitalization of $13.08 billion. The average volume of shares traded in the last three months was 0.4 million.

Shares of Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC - Free Report) and Sun Life Financial Inc. (SLF - Free Report) are trading at a discount, while Primerica, Inc. (PRI - Free Report) is trading at a multiple higher than the industry average.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

RGA’s Price PerformanceShares of this life insurer have gained 2.9% in the last six-month period compared with the industry’s growth of 10.8%.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

RGA Trading Above 50-Day and 200-Day Moving AveragesShares of Reinsurance Group closed at $197.93 on Tuesday and are trading above the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) of $195.19 and $193.72, respectively, indicating solid upward momentum. SMA is a widely used technical analysis tool to predict future price trends by analyzing historical price data.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

RGA’s Growth Projection EncouragesThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for Reinsurance Group’s 2026 earnings per share and revenues indicates an increase of 22.8% and 8.7%, respectively, from the corresponding 2025 estimates.

Earnings have grown 15.3% in the past five years, better than the industry average of 7.8%.

Average Target Price for RGA Suggests UpsideBased on short-term price targets offered by nine analysts, the Zacks average price target is $240.00 per share. The average suggests a potential 18.74% upside from the last closing price.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Reinsurance Group’s Return on Invested CapitalIts return on invested capital (ROIC) has increased every year, reflecting RGA’s efficiency in utilizing funds to generate income. ROIC in the trailing 12 months was 5.52%, higher than the industry average of 0.6%.

Key Points to Note for RGAReinsurance Group is a leader in the traditional U.S. and Latin American markets. It has successfully expanded its product line with market-leading services, capabilities, expertise and innovation. Individual mortality has matured, providing a base for stable earnings and capital generation. Significant value embedded in the in-force business is anticipated to generate predictable long-term earnings. Product-line expansion contributes to risk diversification.

In Canada, Reinsurance Group is a market leader with solid growth and profitability. It has a sizable block of in-force business, which is a significant source of future earnings. Reinsurance Group expects longevity insurance, projected to witness steady demand, to experience long-term growth in the Canadian market. While longevity insurance provides a diversified income source, it also acts as a hedge against a large mortality position.

Demand for protection products among the emerging global middle class and increasing demand for retirement, senior protection and savings products among aging populations create opportunities for growth in new business.

RGA is well-capitalized and has access to multiple forms of capital. RGA expects to remain active in deploying capital in attractive growth opportunities while balancing returning excess capital to shareholders over time.

Reinsurance Group continues to ramp up technological inclusion with its product. This insurer is a global biometric liability reinsurance leader. Biometrics experience, which includes mortality, morbidity and longevity, over the last five quarters was favorable.

The company’s free cash flow conversion has remained more than 85% over the last few quarters, reflecting its solid earnings.

Wealth DistributionThis global reinsurer has also been managing capital effectively via share buybacks, dividend payments and prudent investments. RGA expects to remain active in deploying capital into attractive growth opportunities in organic flow and in-force block transactions and returning excess capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

End NotesNew business volumes, favorable longevity experience, a diversified business and effective capital deployment should continue to favor RGA over the long term.

The stock also has a VGM Score of A. VGM Score helps identify stocks with the most attractive value, best growth and the most promising momentum.

Coupled with solid growth projections, as well as attractive valuations and favorable ROIC of the stock, it is, therefore, wise to hold on to this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory, Inc. (RMCF) Q3 2026 Earnings Call January 14, 2026 9:00 AM EST

Company Participants

Jeffrey Geygan - Interim CEO & Director
Carrie Cass - Corporate Secretary & CFO

Conference Call Participants

Doug Garber
Peter Sidoti - Sidoti & Company, Inc.

Presentation

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to today's conference call to discuss Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory's financial results for the third quarter of 2026. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

Joining us on the call today is the company's interim Chairman, Jeff Geygan and CFO, Carrie Cass. Please be advised that this conference will contain statements that are considered forward-looking statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are subject to certain known and unknown risks and uncertainties as well as assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in these forward-looking statements.

These forward-looking statements are also subject to other risks and uncertainties that are described from time to time in the company's filings with the SEC. Do not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements, which are being made only as of the date of this call. Except as required by law, the company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements.

And now, I'll turn the call over to the company's interim CEO, Jeff Geygan. Jeff, please go ahead.

Jeffrey Geygan
Interim CEO & Director

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. During the third quarter, we continued to execute our margin first transformation strategy, making deliberate decisions to prioritize profitability and long-term value creation over lower quality revenue. While these actions resulted in a near-term revenue pressure and a modest net loss for the quarter, they're foundational to restoring long-term sustainable growth and shareholder

Visa cards are seen in this illustration photo taken in Krakow, Poland on March 29, 2024. (Photo by Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

NurPhoto via Getty Images

Visa (V) stock is experiencing a 5-day losing streak, with overall losses during this timeframe totaling -8.3%. The company's market capitalization has plummeted by approximately $56 Billion in the past 5 days, leaving it at $627 Billion currently.

The stock boasts a year-to-date (YTD) return of -6.5%, compared to 1.7% for the S&P 500. This situation warrants a reassessment of the stock's valuation to determine whether it represents an opportunity or a potential trap.

What Caused The Decline?

[1] Suggested 10% Limit on Credit Card Interest Rates

Statement from President Trump on January 9, 2026, regarding the intention to impose rate capsRenewed backing for the Credit Card Competition Act aimed at Visa's fee structureConsequences: Significant institutional selling, Major technical breakdown beneath critical support levelsOpportunity or Trap?

Here is our perspective on valuation.

There is little to worry about with Visa stock considering its overall Strong operational performance and financial standing. In light of the stock's Moderate valuation, we believe it is Attractive (For more information, see Buy or Sell V).

MORE FOR YOU

However, here’s the intriguing point.

You are reviewing this -8.3% movement after it has occurred. The market has already factored in this news. To sidestep the next potential loser before it hits the headlines, you need predictive indicators, not alerts. Our High Quality Portfolio features a risk model aimed at minimizing exposure to underperformers.

Returns Compared to S&P 500

The table below outlines the return for V stock against the S&P 500 index across various timeframes, including the current streak:

V

Trefis

Examine what history indicates regarding whether previous declines like this have presented buying opportunities or traps: V Dip Buyer Analysis.

Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents

Currently, there are 91 S&P constituents with 3 or more consecutive days of gains, and 75 constituents with 3 or more consecutive days of losses.

V

Trefis

Key Financials for Visa (V)

Last 2 Fiscal Years:

V

Trefis

Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:

V

Trefis

The ongoing losing streak for V stock does not instill much confidence in investors. Conversely, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, consisting of 30 stocks, has consistently surpassed its benchmark, encompassing all three—S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. What accounts for this? Collectively, HQ Portfolio stocks delivered superior returns with reduced risk compared to the benchmark index; exhibiting less volatility, as illustrated in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.

Vancouver, British Columbia--(Newsfile Corp. - January 14, 2026) - Silver47 Exploration Corp. (TSXV: AGA) (OTCQX: AAGAF) (the "Silver47" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that it has completed its previously announced and upsized bought deal public offering of 32,857,800 units of the Company (the "Units"), including the full exercise of the over-allotment option, at a price of $1.05 per Unit for aggregate gross proceeds to the Company of $34,500,690 (the "Offering").

The Offering was led by Research Capital Corporation as the lead underwriter and sole bookrunner on behalf of a syndicate of underwriters, including Haywood Securities Inc. (collectively, the "Underwriters").

Each Unit consists of one common share of the Company (a "Common Share") and one-half of one Common Share purchase warrant of the Company (each whole warrant, a "Warrant"). Each Warrant shall entitle the holder thereof to purchase one Common Share at an exercise price of $1.40 per Common Share until January 14, 2029.

The net proceeds from the Offering will be used to accelerate and expand planned drill programs on the Company's silver projects, and for working capital and general corporate purposes.

The Offering was completed pursuant to a prospectus supplement of the Company filed in all of the provinces of Canada and dated January 2, 2026 that supplemented the short form base shelf prospectus of the Company dated November 26, 2025. The Offering remains subject to the final approval of the TSX Venture Exchange (the "TSXV").

In connection with the Offering, the Company paid the Underwriters an aggregate cash commission of $1,965,433.05 and issued to the Underwriters an aggregate of 1,871,841 broker warrants (the "Broker Warrants"). The Underwriters also received an aggregate advisory fee of $29,000 plus tax and an aggregate of 27,619 advisory broker warrants on the same terms as the Broker Warrants. In addition, the Company issued to an eligible arm's length party, 71,427 finder's warrants on the same terms as the Broker Warrants. Each Broker Warrant entitles the holder thereof to acquire one Common Share at a price of $1.05 per Common Share until January 14, 2029.

Eventus Capital Corp. is a special advisor to the Company.

This press release is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy the securities in the United States or in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to qualification or registration under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The securities being offered have not been, nor will they be, registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and such securities may not be offered or sold within the United States or to, or for the account or benefit of, U.S. persons absent registration or an applicable exemption from U.S. registration requirements and applicable U.S. state securities laws.

About Silver47 Exploration Corp.

Silver47 Exploration Corp. is a mineral exploration company, focused on uncovering and developing silver-rich deposits in North America. The Company is creating a leading high-grade US-focused silver developer with a combined resource totaling 236 Moz AgEq at 334 g/t AgEq inferred and 10 Moz at 333 g/t AgEq Indicated. With operations in Alaska, Nevada and New Mexico, Silver47 is anchored in America's most prolific mining jurisdictions. For detailed information regarding the resource estimates, assumptions, and technical reports, please refer to the NI 43-101 Technical Report and other filings available on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca. The Company trades on the TSXV under the ticker symbol AGA and OTCQX under the ticker symbol AAGAF.

For more information about the Company, please visit Silver-47.com and see the Technical Report filed on SEDAR+ (www.sedarplus.ca) and titled "Technical Report on the Red Mountain VMS Property Bonnifield Mining District, Alaska, USA with an effective date January 12, 2024, and prepared by APEX Geoscience Ltd."

Follow us on social media for the latest updates:

X: @Silver47coLinkedIn: Silver47Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS

This news release contains "forward-looking information" within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation. "Forward-looking information" includes, but is not limited to, statements with respect to the activities, events or developments that the Company expects or anticipates will or may occur in the future, including the anticipated use of the net proceeds of the Offering and the anticipated benefits and impacts of the Offering and the exploration and development of the Company. Generally, but not always, forward-looking information and statements can be identified by the use of words such as "plans", "expects", "is expected", "budget", "scheduled", "estimates", "forecasts", "intends", "anticipates", or "believes" or the negative connotation thereof or variations of such words and phrases or state that certain actions, events or results "may", "could", "would", "might" or "will be taken", "occur" or "be achieved" or the negative connation thereof.

Such forward-looking information and statements are based on numerous assumptions, including among others, that the Company will receive all regulatory and Exchange approvals, including final approval of the Offering by the TSXV. Although the assumptions made by the Company in providing forward-looking information or making forward-looking statements are considered reasonable by management at the time, there can be no assurance that such assumptions will prove to be accurate and actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements.

Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the Company's plans or expectations include risks relating to the failure to complete the Offering at all or in the timeframe and on the terms as anticipated by management, market conditions and timeliness of regulatory approvals. Although the Company has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking information or implied by forward-looking information, there may be other factors that cause results not to be as anticipated, estimated or intended. There can be no assurance that forward-looking information and statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated, estimated or intended. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements or information.

NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES

To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/280364

Source: Silver47 Exploration Corp.

Ready to Announce with Confidence? Send us a message and a member of our TMX Newsfile team will contact you to discuss your needs.

Contact Us

NEW YORK CITY, NEW YORK / ACCESS Newswire / January 14, 2026 / SMX (NASDAQ:SMX) continues to expand its footprint in the cybersecurity hardware space through proprietary technology created to protect critical electronic components across global supply chains. The company's approach, aligned with its "AAA" vision of AI Autonomous Arteries, leverages patented sub-molecular markings, micro-GPS tracking, and blockchain encryption to authenticate, trace, and safeguard devices from tampering, fraud, and unauthorized access throughout their lifecycle.

SMX's system creates a tamper-proof digital twin for key parts, including NFC and RFID chips, enabling manufacturers and regulators to verify component origin and compliance in real time. This level of traceability not only strengthens hardware security but also supports sustainability goals by promoting reuse and recycling of electronic materials, advancing circular-economy initiatives.

Although distinct from the traditional cybersecurity concept of AAA (Authentication, Authorization, and Accounting), a framework used to control and log access in network security environments, SMX's AAA vision underscores a broader mission: enabling resilient, secure, and transparent infrastructure for the next generation of AI-driven technologies.

Contact: Jeremy Murphy/ [email protected]

SOURCE: SMX (Security Matters) Public Limited

Key Takeaways Shift from low-bid work to mission-critical projects is boosting margins and return quality.Data centers are the core growth driver of Sterling, with triple-digit revenue growth and repeat customers.STRL's disciplined bidding and risk control are improving cash flow and earnings resilience. Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL - Free Report) has moved away from low-bid, margin-dilutive projects and instead prioritized large, mission-critical developments where its execution capabilities create tangible value. This approach is most visible in the data center market, which has emerged as a core growth engine. In the third quarter of 2025, data center-related revenue grew at a triple-digit rate year over year, supported by strong customer demand and repeat business, highlighting the benefits of focusing on scale, complexity and long-term partnerships.

The payoff from this selectivity is evident in profitability metrics. Gross margins expanded meaningfully year over year, reflecting better project mix, tighter risk controls and improved pricing discipline. Management emphasized that contracts with clearer scopes and balanced risk allocation have helped limit cost overruns and execution surprises, a chronic issue in the construction sector. This has translated into stronger operating cash flow generation, giving Sterling added financial flexibility for debt reduction, share repurchases and strategic acquisitions.

Importantly, disciplined project selection has not come at the expense of growth. Backlog expanded sharply year over year, driven primarily by the E-Infrastructure segment’s awards and future phase opportunities, providing multiyear revenue visibility. By focusing on quality over volume, Sterling appears to be building a more resilient earnings profile.

Overall, the company’s selective bidding strategy is increasingly reflected in higher margins, stronger cash flows and improved returns on capital, reinforcing the view that project selection is a key pillar behind Sterling’s superior performance.

Sterling’s Competitive PositionBeing exposed to the data center-driven market, Sterling faces notable competition from the key market players, including Quanta Services, Inc. (PWR - Free Report) and EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME - Free Report) .

Quanta is the largest player tied to data center demand through its dominance in power generation, transmission and high-voltage electrical infrastructure. Its growth is leveraged more to grid-scale investments than to the data center site itself. Conversely, EMCOR is more directly involved in data center construction through its mechanical, electrical and specialty contracting services. EMCOR’s exposure is broad and recurring, particularly in electrical and HVAC systems, but data centers represent one of several verticals rather than the core growth engine.

Sterling differentiates itself by combining site development with mission-critical electrical services, allowing it to capture earlier phases of data center projects and benefit from faster revenue conversion. This integrated positioning gives Sterling a more concentrated and higher-growth exposure to data center demand than either Quanta or EMCOR.

STRL Stock’s Price Performance & Valuation TrendShares of this Texas-based infrastructure services provider have gained 34.9% in the past six months, outperforming the Zacks Engineering - R and D Services industry, the broader Construction sector and the S&P 500 Index.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

STRL stock is currently trading at a premium compared with its industry peers, with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 26.65, as shown in the chart below.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Earnings Estimate Revision for STRLSTRL’s earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have remained unchanged over the past 60 days. However, the estimated figures for 2025 and 2026 imply year-over-year growth of 71% and 14.6%, respectively.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Sterling currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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The U.S. November PPI inflation came in hot, well above expectations, signaling that inflation in the U.S. is rising. Bitcoin climbed above the psychological $95,000 level despite the bearish inflation reading.

U.S. PPI Inflation Comes In At 3% Above Expectations Bureau of Labor Statistics data show that the Producer Price Index rose 3% year-over-year (YoY) in November, above expectations of 2.7%, marking the highest level since July 2025. Month-over-month (MoM), the index rose to 0.2%, in line with expectations.

Meanwhile, Core PPI inflation rose to 3.5%, way above expectations of 2.7%, while it increased 0.0%, below estimates of 0.2%. The macro data indicate that inflation in the U.S. is rising, contrary to the CPI reading.

As CoinGape reported, the December CPI inflation data came in at 2.7% YoY in line with expectations, while the core data came in at 2.6%, below expectations of 2.7%. The PPI data is notably bearish for the crypto market, supporting the case for the Fed to hold rates steady as inflation continues to run well above their 2% target.

Bitcoin rose despite this bearish inflation data, climbing above the psychological $95,000 level. At press time, the flagship crypto is trading at around $95,500, according to TradingView data.

Source: TradingView; Bitcoin Daily Chart CoinGape had reported earlier in the day how Bitcoin rose to as high as $96,000, marking a new yearly high for the crypto asset. BTC rose to this level on the back of large inflows into the ETFs and soft CPI data. However, the PPI data threatens to halt this rally as market participants weigh its implications for rate cuts this year.

The December PPI inflation report will be released on January 30, providing a clearer picture of producer prices in the U.S. It is worth noting that Fed officials had warned that inflation could trend higher this year due to the Trump tariffs. However, the recent macro data have so far provided mixed signals on inflation in the U.S.

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Ethereum price held steady close to a crucial resistance level as its network activity soared to a record high ahead of the markup of the CLARITY Act in the US Senate. ETH was trading at $3,300, up modestly from the November low of $2,620.

Ethereum Network Activity Has Soared to a Record High Data compiled by Santiment shows that activity on Ethereum has soared to a record high this year. Its data shows that the number of new wallets created in the network jumped to a record high of 393.k on Sunday. The figure has been averaging 327.1k per day in the past three weeks.

Ethereum Network Growth This observation is supported by Nansen data, which shows that the number of active addresses on the network jumped by 45% in the last 30 days to 12.4 million. Another data shows that the number of transactions has soared by 23% to over 55 million. This makes it the second-fastest-growing chain after Linea. 

Ethereum active addresses More third-party data shows that Ethereum has boosted its dominance against other chains in key areas like DeFi and RWA. It has a 76% and 63% dominance in these industries despite the increasing number of layer-1 and layer-2 chains in the crypto industry. 

The soaring network activity is happening despite the ETH price remaining in a bear market after falling by over 20% from its highest level in 2025. Santiment attributes this growth to the recently launched Fusaka upgrade, soaring stablecoin activity, the January Effect, and the growth of the RWA industry.

Ethereum activity may grow further this year as the network will launch the Glamsterdam and Hegota upgrades that will make it a faster and more secure chain.

The next major catalyst for the ETH price will be the CLARITY Act markup, which will happen on Thursday. This is a key bill that divides the regulatory roles between the SEC and CFTC. 

Ethereum Price Prediction: Technical Analysis  Analysts have a highly bullish long-term ETH price forecast. In a note this week, Standard Chartered predicted that it will jump to $7,500. Tom Lee has also made a similar forecast, which explains why Bitmine has continued to accumulate ETH. 

A look at the weekly chart shows that the coin has moved above the Major S&R pivot point of the Murrey Math Lines tool. At the same time, it has formed a large multi-year inverted head-and-shoulders pattern, a common reversal pattern. It is now moving above the right shoulder.

Ethereum price chart Therefore, the token will likely rebound as bulls target the Ultimate Resistance level at $5,000, which is about 50% above the current level. The bullish outlook will become invalid if it drops below the right shoulder at $2,500.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Ethereum has numerous catalysts that will push it higher in the coming weeks. As such, it may surge to $5000.

Yes, Ethereum is a good crypto to buy because of its strong market share in key industries like decentralized finance and real-world asset tokenization. It also has strong technicals.

Activity in Ethereum is soaring because of the recent Fusaka upgrade and the growing demand for its dApps.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan expects BTC price to go parabolic if ETF demand persists long-term. BTC price has increased by 3.07% over the last 24 hours. Spot Bitcoin ETF recorded net inflow for a second consecutive day on January 13, 2026. Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO, has said that BTC price would go parabolic. He has compared the scenario to that of Gold’s, tracking the pattern back to 2022. Bitcoin tokens are currently teasing a resistance zone of $96k, with ETF noting net inflows for the second consecutive day.

Matt Hougan on BTC Price Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has drawn a comparison between BTC price and Gold to explain how the former could go parabolic in the times to come. He has underlined that their prices primarily depend on demand and supply, adding that purchases could tilt the equation but may not necessarily show up in prices immediately.

Bitcoin's price will go parabolic if ETF demand persists long-term. A lesson from gold's 2025 move…

The price of both gold and bitcoin are set by supply-and-demand. The popular story is that gold prices spiked in 2025 (up 65%) because central bank purchases tilted the… https://t.co/yIzin9D0zs pic.twitter.com/EUAmKRCqxr

— Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) January 13, 2026 In 2022, his post read, Gold rose only by 2%. However, it surged by 13% and 27% in the following two years, respectively. And, it was only in 2025 when Gold prices went parabolic after sellers ran out of ammo and demand persisted.

His post further read that the same thing was happening to BTC and Bitcoin ETF since its debut in January 2024. Prices have not gone parabolic, but could draw the trajectory if demand for the ETF persists long-term.

Earlier Statement by Matt Hougan Bitwise CIO earlier tabled a key point from the 8th annual Bitwise/VettaFi Benchmark Survey. He underlined that almost 99% of financial advisors plan to either increase or maintain crypto exposure in 2026 after making allocations in 2025.

Only 1% of the participants said that they plan to decrease their crypto exposure this year. Several crypto enthusiasts have reacted to this by calling it an incredible stat. Bitwise itself recently filed for 11 altcoin ETFs. Needless to say, it is still recommended to do thorough research and risk assessment before investing in cryptocurrencies.

BTC Price and ETF Performance BTC price is currently up by 3.07% over the last 24 hours, trading at $95,038.37 when the article is being written. The 24-hour trading volume has surged by 59.39% to $59.88 billion. BTC price prediction now estimates the flagship token to soar by almost 7.30% to approximately $102,438 in the next 1 month.

Spot Bitcoin ETF, meanwhile, just recorded net inflow for the second consecutive day. Funds worth around $753.8 million were injected on January 13, 2026, after an inflow of $116.7 million on the previous day.

Highlighted Crypto News Today:

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Curious by nature, Ankur's core topic is Web3, but he's a versatile writer who can cover many more subjects. If you catch up with him in his free time, you'll find discussions often center around different movies and TV series. He's an easy person to talk to—you can literally chat with him about anything.

Bitcoin futures has entered a bullish zone for the first time in three months.

Bitcoin futures positioning has transitioned into a steady bullish zone for the first time in three months, according to analyst Axel Adler Jr.

The Bitcoin Positioning Index rose to 3.5, which is the first breakout above the 3 level since October last year.

BTC Futures Turn Bullish The index, which accounts for open interest dynamics, funding rates, and long/short opening ratios across major cryptocurrency exchanges, suggests that bullish positions in the futures market have been systematically accumulating rather than forming in a single day.

The last time the SMA-30d reached similar levels was October 6, 2025, during a rally that pushed Bitcoin to $125,000. Daily data for the index reached 24, thereby placing it firmly in the bullish zone amid aggressive long positioning, including a 1.89% rise in open interest, a positive taker delta, and funding at 0.0045.

Bitcoin’s price rose nearly 4% to $95,358, while open interest increased to $12.18 billion. Adler explained that the SMA-30d breakout above 3 after three months in the neutral 0 ± 2 range indicates a local regime shift in market positioning. He added that continuation of the bullish trend would depend on the SMA remaining above 2 for at least a week.

At the same time, the Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index reached a peak of 93% before pulling back to 70%. The index remains above the neutral 50% threshold and above its SMA-30d level of 62.9%, which means that bullish sentiment continues despite the pullback. Adler interpreted the 23-percentage-point decline as a release of market overheating rather than a reversal.

For comparison, during December’s correction to $85,000, sentiment fell to extreme lows of 10-15%, which Adler described as a structural breakdown rather than a temporary adjustment. He added that if market sentiment turns negative and BTC’s price falls below $92,000, it would indicate that bullish momentum in the futures market is starting to fade.

You may also like: Bitwise Explains Why Gold Defends and Bitcoin Attacks During Market Cycles Bitcoin Price Reclaims $94K as Trump Lashes Out at Iran, Tariff Haters, Powell, and Others Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Show Early Capitulation Signals Opportunity for Bitcoin QCP Capital also expects further upside in a continued risk-on environment. The firm cited the current US economy, stable inflation, and strong equity and precious metal markets as supporting factors for broader risk appetite, which could extend to digital assets.

While geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Iran, as well as a pending US Supreme Court decision on tariffs, remain potential risks, QCP Capital said these developments appear to be largely priced in, and any escalation could present buy-the-dip opportunities for BTC.

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TL;DR

Market Growth: Tokenized gold added nearly $2.8 billion in 2025, representing about 25% of all RWA net inflows and expanding from $1.6 billion to $4.4 billion. Trading Surge: Annual trading volume hit $178 billion, with Q4 activity above $126 billion, placing tokenized gold as the second‑largest gold investment product by volume. Macro Momentum: Gold’s record highs were fueled by political uncertainty, a weaker US CPI report, and expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, boosting demand for safe‑haven assets and accelerating onchain gold adoption.
Tokenized gold closed 2025 as one of the strongest performers in the real‑world asset landscape, adding billions in new value as trading activity increasingly migrated to blockchain rails. The asset class not only outpaced physical bullion and most gold ETFs but also captured a significant share of overall RWA expansion, signaling a shift in how investors access and trade gold exposure.

Rapid Expansion of Tokenized Gold Markets The market capitalization of tokenized gold climbed 177% over the past year, with more than 115,000 new wallets added, according to data compiled by Cex.io. Total value rose from about $1.6 billion to $4.4 billion, contributing nearly $2.8 billion in net inflows. That figure represented close to 25% of all RWA sector growth and surpassed the combined expansion of tokenized stocks, corporate bonds, and non‑US Treasurys. The surge unfolded during a strong year for gold itself, which saw its market value rise more than 67%.

Trading Volumes Reach Global Scale Tokenized gold recorded approximately $178 billion in trading volume in 2025, with activity peaking above $126 billion in the fourth quarter. At that scale, tokenized gold would rank as the second‑largest gold investment product globally by trading volume, trailing only SPDR Gold Shares. The report noted that such rapid growth reflects a structural shift in liquidity formation, with more trading activity occurring onchain rather than through traditional financial products.

Tether Gold Drives Late‑Year Momentum Much of the year’s acceleration came from Tether Gold, which accounted for 75% of total trading volume in Q4, up sharply from 27% in Q3. XAUT’s website lists a market cap of $2.42 billion backed by roughly 1,329 gold bars, or about 16,239 kilograms of physical gold. Broader tokenized commodities also expanded, with the sector’s market cap surpassing $4.3 billion, led by Tether Gold at $1.9 billion and Paxos Gold at $1.7 billion.

Macro Forces Strengthen Gold’s Appeal Gold’s rally to record highs was supported by rising macro and political uncertainty. Precious metals spiked after reports of a criminal investigation involving Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell raised concerns about central bank independence. A weaker‑than‑expected US Consumer Price Index report further boosted expectations for multiple rate cuts, pressuring real yields and the dollar while enhancing gold’s appeal as a non‑yielding safe‑haven asset.

Journalist

Posted: January 14, 2026

Story [IP] locked in a massive 36% in daily gain on the 13th of January, following a broader market rally after softer inflation data that lifted Bitcoin [BTC]. 

This upswing brought IP’s overall weekly recovery gains to nearly 100%. Since its second leg of recovery began on the 11th of January, the altcoin has doubled in value, rising from $2 to $4.

At press time, however, IP had slightly retreated to $3.89. 

Source: Story IP/USDT, TradingView 

The latest recovery leg began at the 50-day Moving Average (MA, white) dynamic support. The immediate upside target would be the golden ratio (61.8% – 50% Fib levels), which aligned with the 200-day Moving Average (MA). 

In other words, crossing the $5-$6 mark would determine the next stage of the recovery; otherwise, a consolidation or cooling-off period could ensue. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also broke above 87 on the price charts. This suggested strong buying pressure. But the overbought RSI levels also warned of potential reversal, as seen in August and September (orange circles). 

What triggered Story IP’s rally? The explosive recovery was also marked by strong demand from the spot markets, according to CryptoQuant data.

Source: CryptoQuant

It’s worth pointing out that the Bitcoin surge after softer CPI data improved market sentiment from ‘fear’ to a ‘neutral’ level. If the macro landscape positively boosts the sector in the following days, IP could trigger another recovery phase above $6.  

Most importantly, the scheduled protocol network upgrade has renewed the bullish sentiment on the protocol, which aims to enable creators to enjoy their intellectual property (IP) rights on-chain. 

Source: X

Network activity muted despite upgrade support The upgrade is scheduled for the 14th of January, 23:30 UTC, and on-chain transactions will be briefly paused. Several exchanges, including OKX, HTX, and Upbit, among others, will block deposits and withdrawals of IP during the upgrade window to prevent loss of funds. 

The upgrade, also known as Yusanari, seeks to activate the Ethereum Fusaka upgrade features on the protocol. 

Despite the massive recovery, the protocol’s traction has been short of muted. According to DeFiLlama data, the protocol’s monthly revenue fell from $94k in September 2025 to $323 in December.

So far in 2026, it has generated $152, which is significantly less than most protocols, suggesting low network activity.

Source: DeFiLlama 

Final Thoughts Story IP token blasted 36%, extending weekly recovery to 100% thanks to macro and protocol-related catalysts.  However, the network activity didn’t match the explosive price rally, suggesting a mismatch between market and fundamentals. 

Benjamin Cowen, founder and CEO of IntoTheCryptoverse, says the crypto market may be entering a prolonged "ghost town" phase as retail investors continue to exit and show little sign of returning in the near term.

What Happened: Cowen said retail participation was the primary driver of the major bull markets in 2017 and 2021.

While Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) rallied in 2025, he noted that the move was largely powered by institutional ETF inflows rather than broad-based retail demand.

According to Cowen, years of capital misallocation into scams and meme coins have damaged trust in the wider crypto ecosystem, leading to lasting retail disengagement.

Social engagement metrics support this view, with crypto-related activity falling to multi-year lows despite Bitcoin trading near cycle highs.

Crypto-focused YouTube channels now average roughly 500,000 daily views across the sector, down sharply from an estimated 2–3 million during the 2021 bull market.

Cowen also pointed to severe dilution in the altcoin market, noting that more tokens were launched in a single day in 2025 than during the entire period from 2011 to 2021.

Why It Matters: Cowen rejected the idea that Federal Reserve policy is the primary reason for crypto's underperformance.

He noted that both risk and non-risk assets, including the S&P 500, gold, and silver, have reached all-time highs despite elevated interest rates.

The key distinction, he argued, is that equities represent businesses with real revenue and profits, while many altcoins rely on circular token issuance, where "yield" is generated by diluting existing holders rather than creating value.

Cowen compared the current market to the 2019 "apathy top," suggesting the ghost-town conditions could persist into early 2026, characterized by consolidation or gradual downside pressure.

He said a meaningful return of retail participation would likely require a renewed focus on genuine utility and Bitcoin-centric development rather than speculative token launches.

Image: Shutterstock

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Key NotesEthereum price gains attention amid BTC dominance shift, signaling likely altcoin breakout.Rising network transactions and steady ETF inflows point to growing demand beyond short-term trading.Technical patterns and strong DeFi activity keep Ethereum in focus in the coming rally. Ethereum’s ETH $3 354 24h volatility: 6.7% Market cap: $405.43 B Vol. 24h: $37.02 B price is slowly moving back into focus after years of trailing Bitcoin BTC $96 898 24h volatility: 4.8% Market cap: $1.93 T Vol. 24h: $65.86 B .

New market data is showing early signs of a shift as 2026 draws closer. Bitcoin still leads the market, but the gap between both assets is no longer widening at the same pace.

Ethereum’s Price Strength Builds as Bitcoin Dominance Slips Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market peaked at 66% in July and has been declining since then.

This is important because past cycles show that when dominance stalls, funds often move into large altcoins. Ethereum is the first stop for many of those flows.

The ETH to BTC ratio is already up 3.59% this year. This may look small, but it marks a change from years of steady underperformance.

At the same time, Ethereum’s network activity is rising. Total transactions now stand at about 2.05 million, up 6.8% for 2026 and over 30% since mid-December. This is proof that usage is growing, not fading.

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are also playing a role. Spot Ethereum ETFs pulled in over $129 million in one day this week and have crossed $12.5 billion in cumulative inflows.

Assets under management are nearing $20 billion, showing steady demand rather than short bursts of speculation.

Ethereum has formed an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern and is trading at $3,285.91, up 3.6% in the past 24 hours.

Market watchers believe that the structure remains valid as long as the price holds above $2,663.

A break higher puts $4,000 back in view, with the previous high at $4,965 still the longer-term target.

Similarly, Ethereum continues to lead in DeFi activity, stablecoin transfers, and real-world asset tokenization.

In line with current development, Morgan Stanley has filed with the US SEC to launch an Ethereum ETF. This goal is to expand its crypto offerings beyond Bitcoin and Solana SOL $146.9 24h volatility: 3.6% Market cap: $82.79 B Vol. 24h: $7.52 B .

Maxi Doge Presale Surpasses $4.4 Million Dollars in Investor Support Ethereum may be outperforming Bitcoin at the moment, but savvy investors are looking for the next big thing. Enter Maxi Doge (MAXI), a canine-themed crypto that is capturing attention and excitement in the market. This playful yet promising token is making waves as a must-watch project for 2026.

The presale is already at $4.4 million and climbing, showing massive investor confidence. With its fun theme and strong community backing, Maxi Doge is quickly becoming a favorite in crypto presales and proving it can stand alongside some of the biggest names in the industry.

Current Presale Stats of Maxi Doge Current price: $0.000278

Amount raised so far: $4.468 million

Ticker: MAXI

Early supporters are riding the wave of excitement, positioning themselves for what could be one of the most thrilling crypto stories of 2026. Thinking of joining the presale? Check out our guide on how to buy Maxi Doge.

Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article aims to deliver accurate and timely information but should not be taken as financial or investment advice. Since market conditions can change rapidly, we encourage you to verify information on your own and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content.

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Benjamin Godfrey is a blockchain enthusiast and journalist who relishes writing about the real life applications of blockchain technology and innovations to drive general acceptance and worldwide integration of the emerging technology. His desire to educate people about cryptocurrencies inspires his contributions to renowned blockchain media and sites.

Godfrey Benjamin on X

Bitcoin miner targets large scale AI and high performance computing infrastructure in the Houston region.

Aave’s DAO–Labs governance fight erased about $500M in AAVE value, yet Santiment data shows top holders accumulating and deposits, revenues and sentiment all recovering.

Summary

Santiment links a $500M AAVE drawdown to disputes over revenue sharing, IP and brand control between Aave Labs and the DAO, culminating in a failed brand-transfer vote.​ Despite the selloff, Aave deposits climbed roughly 60% year-over-year and weekly revenues are on track for record 2025 levels, underscoring resilient protocol fundamentals.​ Top 100 AAVE addresses grew their share from about 72% to 80% as large wallets and founder Stani Kulechov bought during the dip, signaling a perceived governance “stress test,” not collapse.​ Cryptocurrency analytics firm Santiment has released a comprehensive analysis of decentralized finance protocol Aave and its AAVE token, detailing a governance dispute that led to significant market volatility, according to a report published by the company.

Aave Labs in governance dispute The governance crisis between the decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) and Aave Labs resulted in approximately $500 million in market value losses for AAVE, the report stated. However, on-chain data indicated that large investors accumulated tokens during the decline rather than liquidating positions.

The disputes originated from disagreements between the DAO and Aave Labs regarding revenue sharing, governance structures, and brand rights, according to Santiment. Allegations emerged that the developer company failed to transfer revenue from certain integrations to the DAO treasury, prompting backlash within the community. Social media posts about AAVE increased sharply beginning in mid-December, the report noted.

Despite the price decline in mid-December, the protocol’s fundamentals remained robust, Santiment reported. Deposits on Aave increased approximately 60% year-over-year, with weekly revenues projected to reach record levels by the end of 2025. The disconnect between price performance and fundamental metrics raised concerns that DAO-company tensions were pressuring the token’s valuation, according to the analysis.

On-chain activity shifted significantly around December 22, Santiment data showed. Large AAVE wallet holders initiated buying positions during the price drop. The share of total AAVE supply held by the top 100 addresses increased from approximately 72% to 80%. Balance increases in wallets holding over one million dollars worth of AAVE suggested supply was being withdrawn from exchanges, potentially indicating a supply squeeze, the report stated.

The governance tension reached a critical point with a vote to transfer the Aave brand and intellectual property rights to DAO control. The vote’s rejection demonstrated significant divisions within the community, according to Santiment. Reports that founder Stani Kulechov purchased substantial amounts of AAVE prior to the dispute intensified the controversy. While no evidence suggested these purchases manipulated governance, the concentration of token ownership raised questions about decentralized decision-making processes, the report noted.

Market sentiment began shifting as Aave Labs signaled a potential policy reversal, Santiment reported. The company announced that revenue from activities outside the core protocol could be shared with AAVE token holders, a move that received positive reception from the community. Following this development, Santiment’s sentiment analysis detected a significant increase in positive comments and a limited number of negative remarks. As of the previous day, AAVE reached its highest bull-to-bear commentary ratio since before the dispute began, according to the report.

Derivative market data also supported signs of recovery, Santiment stated.

The firm characterized the events at Aave as a real-time stress test for decentralized governance. While discussions between the DAO and Aave Labs continue, the response from long-term investors suggests the crisis is viewed as part of the protocol’s maturation process rather than a catastrophic event, according to the analysis.

President Donald Trump declared on Jan. 12 that the US would impose a 25% tariff on any country conducting business with Iran, “effective immediately,” via Truth Social.

Bitcoin (BTC) dipped briefly below $91,000, then recovered above $92,000 within hours. No liquidation cascade materialized. No systemic unwind. The market absorbed what appeared to be a maximalist geopolitical headline and moved on.

As of press time, BTC was trading near $94,000, up 1.5% over the past 24 hours.

Three months earlier, a similar-sounding announcement, as Trump threatened a 100% tariff on China in October 2025, triggered over $19 billion in forced liquidations and sent Bitcoin down more than 14% in a matter of days.

The contrast raises a straightforward question: why did one tariff headline break the market while the other barely registered?

The answer isn't that traders have grown numb to Trump's pronouncements. It's that markets now price policy announcements through a credibility filter. Specifically, the gap between a social media post and an enforceable policy.

Jan. 12 scored low on both credibility and immediacy, while Oct. 10 scored high on both, and it arrived in a market wired to explode.

Credibility gapThe White House posted no corresponding executive order alongside Trump's Truth Social announcement. No Federal Register notice appeared. No Customs and Border Protection guidance emerged defining what “doing business with Iran” would mean in practice or which transactions would trigger the 25% levy.

Reports noted the absence of formal documentation and flagged the unclear legal basis.

That absence matters because the Supreme Court is currently reviewing whether Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs exceeds presidential authority.

Lower courts already ruled that IEEPA tariffs went too far, and those rulings were stayed pending the high Court's decision.

Odds at Polymarket rule only 27% chance that the Supreme Court will support the tariffs decision, while odds at Kalshi are slightly higher at 31.9%.

Prediction markets show roughly 27-32% odds that the Supreme Court will rule in favor of Trump's tariff authority as of January 2026.Traders were already discounting tariff authority before the Iran announcement hit. Without clear enforcement mechanics or legal certainty, the market treated the headline as conditional guidance rather than immediate policy.

That's the credibility discount in action: a tariff threat can sound sweeping on paper, but trade like an option until paperwork and enforcement timelines emerge.

Why October broke and January bentOct. 10 wasn't just a headline. It was a high-credibility macro shock hitting a structurally fragile market. Trump's 100% tariff announcement targeting China came with clear geographic scope, explicit trade-war framing, and immediate cross-asset repricing.

US-China escalation is a globally recognized risk trigger. Iran-linked trade restrictions, by contrast, operate in a fuzzier policy space where existing sanctions already constrain flows.

More important was what sat underneath the headline. In early October, perpetual futures open interest had climbed to near-record levels, funding rates had turned persistent and positive, and leveraged positions were crowded into a narrow range.

When the tariff news hit, it didn't just reprice risk: it forced liquidations. Bitcoin fell as low as $104,782 before stabilizing after over $19 billion in liquidations. That liquidation wave wasn't new information about crypto's fundamentals, but a mechanical unwind driven by forced selling and evaporating liquidity.

By contrast, the Jan. 12 setup looked different. CoinGlass data shows the current open interest sitting at roughly $62 billion. That's an elevated number, but well below the $90 billion seen before the Oct. 10 washout.

Bitcoin perpetual futures open interest peaked near $90 billion in early October 2025 before declining to around $60 billion by January 2026.Additionally, funding rates hovered in a modest 0.0003–0.0008% range per eight-hour period, well below the crowded-long thresholds that amplify drawdowns.

Deribit has recently noted a jump in seven-day at-the-money implied volatility of roughly 10 vol points, consistent with traders buying hedges and repricing tail risk. Yet, spot held.

Bitcoin ETFs pulled in around $150 million in net inflows in January, according to Farside Investors data. This suggests that institutional flows are offsetting any headline-driven selling pressure, even though by a tight margin.

Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $243.2 million on Jan. 6 and $486.1 million on Jan. 7, 2026, marking consecutive days of investor withdrawals despite positive flows.The result was a dip-and-recover pattern rather than a cascade. Markets that hedge faster and maintain deeper liquidity don't transmit geopolitical noise into systemic breaks.

October's liquidation spiral required both a high-credibility shock and a market structure primed to amplify it. January had neither.

Iran's trade footprint and the real transmission channelIf the tariff threat had an immediate, enforceable scope, it would matter: not because of Iran itself, but because of China.

China is Iran's largest trading partner by a wide margin. Reuters reported that China imported $22 billion in Iranian goods in 2022, of which over half was oil.

In 2025, China bought more than 80% of Iran's exported crude, averaging around 1.38 million barrels per day, roughly 13.4% of China's seaborne imports.

That means any serious attempt to penalize “countries doing business with Iran” would functionally become a China story, with Brazil also exposed through agricultural exports to Iran.

The complexity of enforcement is part of why markets discounted the announcement. There's no clean targeting mechanism, no obvious way to isolate Iranian-linked transactions without disrupting broader trade flows, and no precedent for how such a regime would work in practice.

The transmission channel that does matter is oil. Brent crude was trading around $64 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate near $59.70, with analysts estimating a $3 to $4 per barrel geopolitical risk premium tied to tensions over Iran.

If that premium persists and drives sustained upward pressure on inflation expectations, the real damage to crypto would come through the rates channel: higher oil prices, higher inflation expectations, higher real yields, and weaker risk assets.

Crypto's vulnerability to geopolitics isn't direct, but indirect, mediated through macro repricing.
Framework for pricing policy noise

The pattern that emerges from comparing Jan. 12 and Oct. 10 is straightforward: policy headlines move markets when they combine credibility, immediacy, and fragile positioning.

Break down the reaction function into components:

DimensionKey questionEvidence checklist (what to verify)Market/quant proxies (what to measure)Scoring guide (0–5)If the score is high, expect…CredibilityIs this real policy or just rhetoric?Signed executive order published? Federal Register notice? Agency guidance (e.g., CBP) issued? Clear statutory authority cited (and legally durable)?“Docs present” (yes/no); time from headline → formal action; legal clarity (court status / prediction-market odds)0: social post only, no docs/authority. 3: partial docs or credible leaks, authority contested. 5: signed + published + agency implementation + clear authorityRepricing that sticks (not just a wick); vol bid persistsImmediacyCan this hit flows/cashflows soon?Enforcement date specified? Identifiable counterparties named? Covered transactions clearly defined?Days-to-enforcement; scope breadth; compliance feasibility; cross-asset reaction speed0: no date/scope. 3: date or scope exists, still fuzzy. 5: date + scope + counterparties + enforcement mechanismFaster, cleaner risk move; less dip-buyingLeverage fragilityWill structure turn a headline into forced selling?OI-heavy market? Funding persistently positive? Liquidation levels clustered near spot? IV regime complacent or already stressed?OI / market cap; funding (8h) level & persistence; liquidation heatmaps/clusters; IV level + term structure (7D vs 30D)0: low OI ratio, negative/flat funding, dispersed liq, IV already high. 3: elevated but not extreme. 5: extreme OI ratio + hot funding + tight liq clusters + low-vol complacencyHigher odds of cascade; large liquidation prints; liquidity air pocketsOct. 10 scored high on credibility, with clear China-targeting and trade-war escalation rhetoric. It also scored high on immediacy with direct tariff threat with broad market interpretation, and extreme on leverage fragility driven by record open interest, crowded positioning, and low hedging.

Meanwhile, Jan. 12 scored low on credibility due to the lack of formal documentation. It also ranked low on immediacy due to unclear enforcement scope and timing, and moderate on leverage: elevated but not extreme, with active hedging visible in vol markets.

The market's muted response to Jan. 12 wasn't irrational sentiment or desensitization. It was a rational repricing through the lenses of enforceability and positioning.

What could flip the scriptThe current base case is that the Iran tariff threat remains a headline without teeth. It is an optionality that traders monitor but don't need to price aggressively until implementation mechanics appear.

However, several scenarios could change that calculus.

If a formal executive order emerges with clear enforcement scope, naming specific sectors or counterparties and setting definitive start dates, credibility and immediacy both jump.

Markets would need to reprice the tail risk that broad Iran-linked tariffs actually take effect, which would immediately complicate oil flows and diplomatic relations with China.

If the Supreme Court validates Trump's emergency-tariff authority under IEEPA, future tariff announcements regain credibility even without full documentation. Conversely, if the Court strikes down the regime, tariff threats lose their structural bite, though near-term volatility around refund obligations could create cross-asset turbulence.

If oil's geopolitical risk premium persists and inflation expectations rise enough to push real yields higher, crypto faces downside through the rates channel, regardless of whether Iran's tariffs materialize.

The leverage-and-liquidity dynamics that broke October's market can rebuild quickly if positioning turns crowded again and funding rates climb back into elevated territory.

What crypto learnedThe lesson from Jan. 12 isn't that crypto has become immune to geopolitical risk. It's that crypto has become immune to unenforced geopolitics, at least until leverage returns.

Markets that price policy through credibility filters, hedge proactively, and maintain depth can absorb headline volatility without cascading. Markets that don't, can't.

Trump's Iran tariff threat landed in a structure that had adapted. Traders bought volatility instead of selling spot. Open interest stayed elevated but not extreme. Institutional flows offset retail jitters. The result was a dip that recovered within hours rather than a liquidation wave that compounded over days.

The fragility hasn't disappeared. It's conditional. If credibility rises, if immediacy sharpens, if leverage rebuilds to October's extremes, the next tariff headline or the next macro shock could trigger the same cascade.

Until then, crypto will keep treating maximalist announcements as negotiating positions rather than executable policy. The Supreme Court will decide whether that discount is warranted.

Mentioned in this article

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

Solana (SOL) might be up for a bullish rally to the $200 price level. According to historical precedence, Solana has every likelihood to surge past the $200 price mark. Cryptorank data reveals a unique pattern that shows that each time SOL closes negatively in December, it picks up the following January.

Solana and historical January surgeNotably, in January, Solana boasts an average growth rate of 52.3%. The asset has one of the highest growth figures in the month, with January 2021 recording an 181.9% increase. In the last six years, Solana has closed positive in four of those years.

Solana Historical Outlook | Source: CryptorankAs of press time, Solana exchanges hands at $144.52, which represents a 1.87% increase in the last 24 hours. The coin jumped from a low of $141.30 to peak at $147.31 before it settled at the current market price.

If history repeats itself and Solana reaches its historic monthly average of 52.3%, then the asset could surge to $219. The coin is likely to add much more moving forward given increased interest from market participants.

Over the weekend, Solana exploded by $8 billion in open interest as traders positioned for active trading ahead of what might be a bullish week. 

Activity around the asset suggests that despite the technical challenges, with the spike in open interest, SOL could rise to higher levels.

Institutional momentum adds supportIn the broader cryptocurrency space, institutional interest is adding to the bullish potential of Solana. The Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) outperformed both Ethereum and Bitcoin as institutional exposure shifted away from the top two leaders in the industry.

In a related development, a Solana whale recently rose from dormancy by withdrawing 80,000 SOL from Binance exchange into a private wallet. 

The move is considered a bullish bet on the asset. The holder is likely expecting the value of the coin to hit its monthly January average of over 52%, which could yield massive profit.

Meanwhile, CEO of Solana Mert Mumtaz infrastructure service Helius opines that the blockchain’s program model is much safer for artificial intelligence (AI) interactions. Mumtaz compared Solana to Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) and noted that Solana dApp developers have more opportunities to reuse codes.

Bitcoin

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Anas Hassan

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34 minutes ago

November PPI data shows producer price inflation surging to 3.0% year-over-year, significantly above the 2.7% forecast and marking the highest reading since July 2025.

Bitcoin is holding around $95,000 as the upside surprise reinforces concerns about sticky inflation pressuring the Fed’s ability to cut rates aggressively in 2026.

Monthly PPI came in at 0.2% as expected, but the annual acceleration to 3.0% signals producer-level price pressures remain elevated and could eventually pass through to consumer prices.

The PPI surprise matters because producer prices are a leading indicator for consumer inflation—higher wholesale costs typically flow through to retail prices with a lag.

With yesterday’s December CPI already showing headline inflation stuck at 2.7% and core at 2.6%, both well above the Fed’s 2% target, today’s hot PPI reading suggests the inflation pipeline remains clogged.

The combination of elevated producer prices and stubborn consumer inflation creates the exact “higher for longer” scenario Powell warned about, where the Fed keeps rates at 3.50%-3.75% through at least Q1 2026 rather than delivering the aggressive easing crypto markets priced in earlier.

Bitcoin’s technical setup remains under pressure with support at $88,000-$90,000 and resistance at $92,000. As it stands now, traders digest whether the PPI shock forces the Fed to reconsider even its reduced two-cut guidance for 2026.

Source: TradingViewAny break below $90,000 support again could trigger another leg down toward November’s $88,500 low, while a sustained hold above $95,000 suggests the market has fully priced in the Fed’s cautious stance.

PPI Shock: Producer Prices Hit 7-Month High – Bitcoin to Rally Next?

Billy Markus, co-creator of Dogecoin, expresses skepticism about crypto reaching new all-time highs soon. Bitcoin trades at around $95,000, 25% below its October peak of $ 126,000.

Newton Gitonga2 min read

14 January 2026, 01:46 PM

Billy Markus, the co-creator of Dogecoin, has once again taken to social media to share his perspective on the current state of cryptocurrency markets. The developer, who launched the meme coin alongside Jackson Palmer in 2013, expressed skepticism about the prospect of new all-time highs in the immediate future.

Markus posted his thoughts on X, stating that while the cryptocurrency sector appears healthy, he remains unconvinced about imminent record-breaking price levels. His comments come at a time when major digital assets continue to trade well below their previous peaks.

The Dogecoin co-founder wrote that he would rather wait for concrete evidence of new all-time highs before getting excited about current market conditions. His tweet suggested a measured approach to evaluating crypto performance, despite generally positive market sentiment.

Selective Endorsement of Digital AssetsMarkus has been vocal about his preferences within the cryptocurrency space. Based on his public statements, he reserves respect for a limited number of projects. Bitcoin and Ethereum top his list, followed by Dogecoin and a handful of other alternative coins.

This selective stance sets him apart from many crypto enthusiasts who embrace a broader range of digital assets. Markus maintains clear boundaries about which projects he considers legitimate or worthy of attention.

His skepticism extends beyond individual coins to entire categories of crypto activity. The developer has repeatedly compared cryptocurrency trading to gambling. He has even suggested it resembles a compulsive behavior rather than a rational investment strategy.

Markus holds similarly negative views about non-fungible tokens. He has criticized both the NFT market and those who participate in collecting or trading these digital collectibles. His position reflects a cautious approach to newer developments in the blockchain space.

Bitcoin's Recent Price MovementsBitcoin reached its most recent all-time high on October 6, when the cryptocurrency touched $126,198. The milestone marked a significant achievement for the digital asset market.

Since that peak, Bitcoin has experienced substantial volatility. The cryptocurrency currently trades around $95,234, representing a decline of approximately 25% from its record level.

SHIB’s price action over the past 24 hours (Source:CoinCodex)

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Newton Gitonga covers cryptocurrencies, blockchain, and digital finance. He specializes in breaking down complex trends with clear, data-driven reporting. His work focuses on market analysis, technical insights, and the evolving role of altcoins in shaping global markets.

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