Market Signal Briefing

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Some of the market’s most volatile stocks have seen significant insider selling recently. This includes notable names across rare earth metals, nuclear energy, and aerospace industries. While insider selling is often labeled a bearish signal, each trade must be examined to determine its true meaning. Let’s dive into MP Materials NYSE: MP, Oklo NYSE: OKLO, and Redwire NYSE: RDW and assess their recent insider activity. 

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MP Insiders Drop +$40 Million Worth of Shares in 2 Months First up is MP Materials, the rare earth metals heavyweight that soared 224% in 2025. However, since the beginning of December 2025, the firm has seen nearly $46 million worth of insider selling.

MP Materials Today

MP

MP Materials

$68.96 +2.26 (+3.39%)

As of 01/16/2026 03:59 PM Eastern

52-Week Range$18.64▼

$100.25Price Target$78.91

This selling stands out, representing more than 40% of the stock’s total insider selling since the beginning of 2025.

It also comes from two of the most important people at the company, CEO James H. Litinsky and CFO Ryan Corbett.

Still, around $19 million in sales occurred under predetermined 10b5-1 plans. This greatly limits their near-term bearish implications, as insiders must set up these sales well in advance of their execution.

The remaining $26 million in sales is more concerning. Corbett and Litinsky made these sales between $60 and $63 per share. With MP Materials now trading close to $69 per share, the stock’s recent insider selling provides a moderately bearish signal.

Insider Selling Soars at OKLO as the Year Turns Next up is aspiring nuclear energy provider Oklo. After rising more than 100% in 2024, the stock surged 238% in 2025. Since the beginning of December 2025, the stock has seen a whopping $136 million worth of insider selling.

Redwire Today

$11.68 +0.82 (+7.55%)

As of 01/16/2026 03:59 PM Eastern

52-Week Range$4.87▼

$26.66Price Target$13.13

Almost all of these sales came from the firm’s top leader, CEO Jacob Dewitte, with CFO Richard Craig Bealmear also making some notable sales. 

Despite Dewitte’s position, his sales are actually the least worrisome of the bunch. All of them came under a 10b5-1 plan. As Dewitte is an owner of more than 10% of Oklo, he is likely seeking liquidity from his long-time investment.

Overall, just $6.3 million of these recent sales were not made under a 10b5-1 plan.

Notably, insiders made these sales between $77 and $88, significantly below the stock’s current price of $95. While these sales are still a bearish signal for Oklo, it's far less so than the numbers would initially imply.

RDW Insider Cashes in After Monstrous 2025 Last up is Redwire. The aerospace company absolutely skyrocketed in 2025, delivering a total return of more than 470%. While Redwire did not see any insider selling in December 2025, sales have climbed massively in January 2026.

Redwire Today

$11.68 +0.82 (+7.55%)

As of 01/16/2026 03:59 PM Eastern

52-Week Range$4.87▼

$26.66Price Target$13.13

Overall, the company has seen $252 million worth of sales in the first several weeks of the year. These sales represent over 72% of the stock’s total insider selling since the beginning of 2025. Furthermore, no sales occurred under a predetermined 10b5-1 plan, which gives them significant bearish implications.

The seller in question is AE Red Holdings, a holding company operated by AE Industrial Partners. AE manages private equity funds that specialize in national security, aerospace, and industrial services investing.

Seeing a large and presumably high-insight investor dump Redwire shares is not a great sign. AE made these sales between $10 and $11 per share, solidly below the stock’s current price near $12. Still, AE remains a more than 10% owner in Redwire, providing some evidence of continued conviction in the name.

Redwire’s Red Flag: Insider Selling The insider sales from Redwire are clearly the most worrisome in this group. While MP and Oklo are flashing meaningful bearish signals, those signals on their own are not cause for alarm.

Investors should note that signals given by insider trading data are just that: signals. They should not be taken in isolation and are most valuable when used in concert with other indicators.

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The cryptocurrency market is reeling this Monday, January 19, 2026, as a geopolitical "blackmail" row between the United States and the European Union triggers a flight to safety. While the entire sector is in the red, Cardano ($ADA) has emerged as one of the hardest hit, losing over 6% of its value in the last 24 hours.

The Greenland Crisis: Why Is Crypto Crashing?The sudden downturn follows President Trump’s announcement of a 10% tariff on eight European nations—including Germany, France, and the UK—effective February 1. The administration has explicitly linked these levies to a demand for the "purchase of Greenland," threatening to hike tariffs to 25% by June if a deal is not reached.

In response, the EU is mulling a "trade bazooka" involving €93 billion in retaliatory tariffs. This escalation has caused a massive global risk-off sentiment, sending traditional stocks and "risk-on" assets like Bitcoin and Cardano into a tailspin.

Cardano Price Analysis: ADA Breaks Critical SupportCardano’s technical outlook has turned bearish following the broader market contagion. After starting 2026 with a rally toward $0.43, the recent dump has pushed ADA back below its 50-day Moving Average (MA).

ADA/USD 2H - TradingView

Key Support Levels: Traders are now closely watching the $0.345 mark, which served as a local bottom during Monday's early trading session. A failure to hold this level could see ADA retesting the $0.32 range, its multi-year floor.Futures Volatility: Despite the price drop, Cardano derivatives volume exploded by over 1,200,000% on Bitmex as traders aggressively deleveraged and repositioned amidst the chaos.The "Megaphone" Pattern: Long-term analysts note that ADA is currently at a "make-or-break" point within a massive megaphone pattern on the weekly chart. If it holds current levels, a recovery toward $1.32 remains a distant possibility, but a breakdown could signal a 45% crash toward $0.21.ADA Price Prediction 2026: Consolidation or Crash?The immediate future of Cardano depends heavily on the de-escalation of the US-EU trade war. While the network continues to mature with the "Voltaire" governance era, institutional appetite is being dampened by macro uncertainty.

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

Dogecoin fell to a low of $0.121 on the Coinbase crypto exchange in Monday's trading session. The dog coin fell more than 7% from $0.131 to $0.121 as the broader crypto market saw a sell-off. Major cryptocurrencies fell on Monday as fears of new U.S. tariffs on European goods triggered a broader sell-off across global markets.

Liquidations rose in the last 24 hours following the sell-off, with nearly $878 million in crypto positions wiped out, according to CoinGlass data, with long positions accounting for the majority.

Digital assets had seen a promising start to the year, after ending 2025 in a malaise following the inability to sustain a recovery from the massive sell-off last October.

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Dogecoin market metric hints at hopeThe Dogecoin price drops to $0.12 following multiple rejections near $0.137-$0.138. However, volume rose significantly amid the price drop. In the derivatives market, volume rose 169% in the last 24 hours to $4 billion, with $35.38 million wiped out in liquidations.

This scenario presents a high volume liquidation flush, which might precede a price reversal. It suggests leverage being removed from the market, with stabilization now awaited for Dogecoin's next move.

DOGE/USD Daily Chart, Courtesy: TradingViewIn the spot markets, Dogecoin's trading volume has risen 227% in the last 24 hours to $1.99 billion, suggesting increased activity despite the market sell-off.

What's next?The hourly RSI indicator has dropped below 30, hinting at oversold conditions. This setup hints at a potential relief rally in the short term.

On the daily chart, Dogecoin is poised to mark its sixth day of drop since Jan. 13. This trend was also seen in the week before, when Dogecoin fell all through Jan. 6 to 12, closing all days in red.

With speculative leverage being flushed from the markets, Dogecoin might seek to build a base for its next price move.

If a price bottom is confirmed at $0.121 and Dogecoin can recover once again above the daily MA 50 at $0.136, the next targets will be $0.154 and $0.192.

Key NotesParadex, a decentralized perpetuals exchange, erroneously priced Bitcoin at $0.The glitch caused mass liquidations and forced a rollback of its appchain to block 1,604,710.The issue originated from a faulty database migration, leading to an eight-hour platform downtime. Paradex, a decentralized perpetuals exchange operating on Starknet STRK $0.0814 24h volatility: 5.0% Market cap: $423.64 M Vol. 24h: $75.31 M , briefly priced Bitcoin BTC $92 969 24h volatility: 2.2% Market cap: $1.86 T Vol. 24h: $43.37 B at $0 on January 19.

The error triggered widespread liquidations and forced an unprecedented blockchain rollback to block 1,604,710.

The incident stemmed from a faulty database migration and exposed critical vulnerabilities in the platform’s infrastructure.

The exchange confirmed the issue and initiated the rollback to a state before the database maintenance, aiming to restore all user accounts and positions to their pre-maintenance status. Paradex stated, “All open orders will be forced cancelled except TPSL orders.”

Operations on the platform ceased for approximately eight hours, resuming trading at 12:10 UTC.

Paradex assured users that “all user funds are SAFU.” Starknet’s native STRK token reacted to the news, dropping 3.6% to trade at $0.081. Bitcoin trades at $92,958.36, down 2.17% over the past 24 hours.

Why the Rollback Raises Institutional Red Flags A blockchain rollback, particularly on a supposedly decentralized platform, undermines the core tenet of immutability.

While intended to correct a critical error and protect user funds, this action sets a troubling precedent for DeFi derivatives platforms.

Traders on these venues rely on transparent, immutable transaction histories.

Any capacity for a central entity to rewrite that history introduces counterparty risk akin to traditional finance, directly contradicting the trustless promise of decentralized exchanges.

Expect heightened scrutiny on appchain governance and emergency protocols following this event, as market participants re-evaluate the true decentralization of such offerings.

Against this backdrop, traders are increasingly concentrating risk on Hyperliquid HYPE $23.72 24h volatility: 8.3% Market cap: $5.65 B Vol. 24h: $238.97 M , which now leads the perp DEX market in both volume and open interest.

Its scale highlights a growing preference for platforms perceived as operationally robust, even as broader market volatility weighs on token prices.

Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article aims to deliver accurate and timely information but should not be taken as financial or investment advice. Since market conditions can change rapidly, we encourage you to verify information on your own and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content.

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Hamza is an experienced crypto editor/writer with a deep understanding of blockchain technology, cryptocurrency markets, and digital finance. He is passionate about making complex topics accessible and helping readers navigate the fast-evolving world of crypto.

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The Ethereum (ETH) 4-hour chart is flashing warning signs as price hovers around a critical support zone. After months of sideways trading, ETH remains trapped in a consolidation, signaling weakening momentum amid uncertain broader market conditions. According to a crypto analyst, ETH’s 4-hour chart suggests that the cryptocurrency could be heading for a major price dump if buyers fail to regain control. 

Ethereum Price Chart Signals Major Crash Ahead A new market analysis by crypto expert Tyrex draws attention to a 4-hour chart, warning that ETH may be preparing for another price crash. Tyrex noted that Ethereum recently bottomed inside the purple rectangle on the lower timeframe, where price dipped below a key support around $3,260, briefly triggering a liquidity sweep. The move, however, was quickly reversed, indicating it was a fakeout rather than a true bearish breakdown.

Even after the rejection, the analyst revealed that Ethereum’s broader 4-hour pattern remains largely unchanged. He stated that ETH has also repeatedly returned to the same support area, raising concerns that demand may be weakening. Notably, when price keeps revisiting the same lows, it often signals growing pressure, not strength. 

On the chart, Ethereum is now consolidating just above the highlighted support zone. Momentum has slowed compared to the earlier impulsive rally, and the price is still struggling to gain upward traction. Instead of continuation, the market appears to be hesitating at a critical area.

Source: Chart from Tyrex on X  According to Tyrex, this hesitation could be a major risk. Repeatedly retesting the same lows makes the market more vulnerable, increasing the likelihood of a deeper price dump. Notably, each retest makes it easier for sellers to break through support as buyers gradually lose control. 

The analyst’s chart also outlines a potential path lower if support gives way. A drop beneath the purple zone would put Ethereum at risk of sliding toward the next downside area between $3,209 and $3,221. At the time of Tyrex’s analysis, ETH was trading around $3,312, which means a move to this range would have represented a roughly 3% decline.

However, as of writing, Ethereum has dropped to $3,200–which is already below the analyst’s initial breakdown target. This suggests that upward momentum has weakened further, and the recent price drop could signal an even larger decline, according to Tyrex’s analysis. 

Analyst Recommends A “Wait And See” Approach While the Ethereum price navigates bearish trends, Tyrex has advised investors and targets to adopt a wait-and-see approach. He indicated that ETH’s outlook is not entirely bearish. According to him, if Ethereum can hold above $3,230, it would shift his bearish bias to a cautiously bullish one. 

Maintaining that level suggests buyers are defending the range and preventing further downside. In that scenario, ETH could stabilize and potentially climb toward $3,420, as highlighted by the green zone on the chart.

ETH trading at $3,210 on the 1D chart | Source: DOGEUSDT on Tradingview.com Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out every weekday.

Happy Monday! It's been a fairly quiet one with U.S. markets closed for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, but we're still here to get you up to speed with the latest.

In today's newsletter, crypto markets drop on fears of a potential trade war between the U.S. and the EU over Greenland, the New York Stock Exchange develops a tokenized trading platform to support 24/7 trading, Paradex's bitcoin pricing glitch triggers mass liquidations, and more.

Meanwhile, global crypto investment products logged nearly $2.2 billion in net weekly inflows, even as geopolitical jitters dented the late-week mood, according to CoinShares.

P.S. Don't forget to check out The Funding, a biweekly rundown of crypto VC trends. It's a great read — and just like The Daily, it's free to subscribe!

Bitcoin slips as US-EU tariff war fears mount Bitcoin slid back toward $92,000 in a sharp Sunday night into Monday morning sell-off as renewed U.S.-EU tariff war fears over Greenland rattled already fragile crypto market sentiment.

The drop triggered more than $750 million in long liquidations within hours, as major cryptocurrencies, including ETH, XRP, and SOL, also tracked BTC lower. Presto Research analyst Min Jung noted crypto continues to underperform other risk assets, even as equities in markets like South Korea trade flat to higher, suggesting that crypto-specific weakness persists. Meanwhile, BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas said geopolitical headlines amplified weakness that had already been building after delays to the U.S. crypto market structure bill markup process. Lucas added that bitcoin's recent break below its 50-week moving average had accelerated algorithmic selling amid falling futures open interest. While further downside toward the $67,000 to $74,000 range remains possible, Lucas said the pullback does not yet resemble past crypto winters. NYSE develops 24/7 tokenized securities trading platform The New York Stock Exchange is developing a platform for trading and onchain settlement of tokenized U.S. equities and ETFs, pending regulatory approval.

The system aims to support 24/7 trading, fractional shares, dollar-denominated orders, and instant settlement using tokenized capital and stablecoin funding. The platform combines the NYSE's Pillar matching engine with blockchain-based post-trade infrastructure and will support multiple blockchains for settlement and custody, the firm said. The initiative fits into parent company ICE's broader push toward always-on markets, including efforts with major banks to enable tokenized deposits across clearinghouses. Paradex's 'free bitcoin' pricing glitch triggers mass liquidations, forces rollback A pricing glitch on Starknet-based DEX Paradex briefly sent bitcoin to $0 on the platform, triggering widespread liquidations before prices rapidly recovered, users reported.

The exchange said a database migration error caused the incident and confirmed plans to roll back the appchain to restore its last known correct state. Paradex did not disclose how many traders were affected, but restricted parts of the platform while engineers worked through recovery. The episode has reignited debate over blockchain rollbacks, an extreme and controversial response that challenges expectations of transaction finality. Vitalik Buterin calls for 'different and better' DAOs beyond token-holder voting Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin called on the crypto industry to build "different and better" DAOs that move beyond token-holder voting.

He said current DAO designs are inefficient and vulnerable to capture and manipulation, fueling growing cynicism around decentralized governance. Buterin highlighted privacy and decision fatigue as core obstacles and pointed to zero-knowledge proofs and selective AI use as potential solutions. He urged builders to prioritize stronger oracle designs, communication layers, and long-term governance infrastructure from the start. Ethereum daily transactions surge to all-time high as gas fees fall to record lows Ethereum daily transactions climbed to a seven-day moving average all-time high, nearing 2.5 million over the weekend as network usage nearly doubled compared to a year ago.

Meanwhile, average gas fees have fallen to record lows around $0.15, easing long-standing historical concerns over high and unpredictable transaction costs during periods of congestion. The metrics follow Ethereum's recent Fusaka upgrade, expanded blob capacity, and rising stablecoin activity that is now driving up to 40% of network transactions. In the next 24 hours It's quiet on the economic calendar front. Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey will speak at 9:45 a.m. ET on Tuesday. World Economic Forum annual meetings get underway. LayerZero and Kaito are among the crypto projects set for token unlocks. Web3 Hub Davos 2026 continues. Never miss a beat with The Block's daily digest of the most influential events happening across the digital asset ecosystem.

Disclaimer: This article was produced with the assistance of OpenAI’s ChatGPT and reviewed and edited by our editorial team.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

© 2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

TL;DR

According to attorney Bill Morgan, the SEC v. Ripple litigation is legally closed on its core points. In July 2023, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that XRP does not constitute an investment contract, which removed the basis for claims related to programmatic sales and secondary market transactions. The SEC only retains limited room to pursue claims over sales made after 2020, but any future action is constrained by the final ruling and cannot redefine the nature of the token. The litigation between the SEC and Ripple is legally closed on its central issues and cannot be reopened under the same arguments, according to attorney Bill Morgan, one of the legal analysts who followed the case consistently. The key factor is the application of the principle of res judicata, which prevents parties from relitigating matters already resolved through a final judgment.

According to Morgan, claim preclusion blocks any new attempt by the SEC to argue that XRP is a security and also invalidates claims related to Ripple’s historical XRP sales conducted between 2013 and 2020. Those issues were already examined and decided by the U.S. federal courts and cannot be reintroduced in a new proceeding.

Rulings on the Definition of XRP The origin of this situation lies in the strategy adopted by the SEC during the trial. The agency divided Ripple’s activity into several categories: institutional sales, programmatic sales on secondary markets, and other forms of distribution. At the same time, it argued that XRP, as an asset, constituted an investment contract.

That approach required the court to first rule on the legal nature of XRP itself. In July 2023, Judge Analisa Torres determined that XRP, on its own, is not an investment contract. Based on that definition, the court then evaluated each type of sale separately and issued different conclusions depending on the context of the transaction.

As a result, the SEC lost its claims related to programmatic sales and secondary market transactions. It only secured an adverse ruling for Ripple in the case of certain institutional sales. Morgan emphasized that the SEC did not appeal the central finding that XRP is not a security, which ultimately fixed that standard for future litigation.

Could the SEC Initiate New Actions Against Ripple? The principle of res judicata includes both the prohibition on reopening claims and the inability to relitigate issues already resolved. This directly limits any future SEC action related to XRP sales carried out before 2020.

According to Morgan, the regulator still retains a narrow margin of action. It could bring claims related to XRP sales or distributions conducted after 2020, but any new case would be constrained by the 2023 ruling and could not challenge the nature of the token again.

The possibility of reopening the case under a different framework would only exist in the event of an explicit legal change, such as the passage of a new law by the U.S. Congress with presidential approval. Until that happens, the core elements of the Ripple case will remain legally closed

Journalist

Posted: January 19, 2026

Crypto markets moved lower as risk sentiment across financial markets softened. This pushed major tokens into the red, triggering leveraged liquidations, according to real-time price data and sentiment indicators.

As of the latest market prices, Bitcoin [BTC] is trading near $92,900. It is down about 1% in the past 24 hours, with volatility evident around key support levels after recent resistance. 

Ethereum [ETH] is quoted around $3,200–$3,220, down by over 2%. Also, Solana [SOL] is in the $130–$145 range, down by over 3%. 

The decline reflects broad weakness across large-cap altcoins, as measured by live price feeds.

The total capitalization of the crypto markets is roughly $3.14 trillion, down over 2% on the day.  Trading volumes remain elevated at over $120 billion.

Crypto markets liquidations rise on price pullback A wave of leveraged liquidations across crypto derivatives markets has accompanied the recent price deterioration. 

Multiple data sources show that hundreds of millions of dollars in long positions were closed out over the past 24 hours.

Data from Coinglass showed over $602 million in long liquidations, with significant activity concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum markets.

Source: Coinglass

These automated liquidations typically occur when leveraged bets on price rises fail to hold support levels, contributing to short-term downward pressure.

Thin liquidity amplifies macro-driven moves The downturn unfolded in a thinner liquidity environment, with U.S. equity markets closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, while crypto markets continued trading uninterrupted. 

Historically, such conditions can exaggerate price moves in crypto, particularly when combined with elevated leverage.

At the same time, renewed tariff rhetoric and geopolitical uncertainty added to risk-off positioning across global markets. 

Recent statements from U.S. President Donald Trump signalling potential tariff action against Europe, alongside broader tensions over Iran and Greenland, weighed on investor sentiment, even in the absence of immediate policy changes.

Traditional markets reacted cautiously, with equity futures under pressure and safe-haven assets such as gold attracting flows. 

Crypto markets, which often act as a high-beta risk asset in the short term, reflected that shift through accelerated liquidations and broad-based declines.

Crypto markets sentiment turns cautious Market sentiment indicators continue to reflect caution. Alternative live sentiment indices show mixed fear and neutral readings across major tokens, with several assets still classified in neutral or fear territory, indicating tepid conviction among traders. 

As of this writing, the Fear and Greed Index, according to CoinMarketCap, was 45, indicating a neutral sentiment. 

Despite the pullback, Bitcoin continues to trade well above key longer-term support zones established earlier in the cycle, leaving the broader structure intact for now.

However, sustained weakness below current support levels could invite further downside if macro uncertainty persists and liquidity remains constrained.

Final Thoughts The latest crypto sell-off reflects a leverage-driven unwind exacerbated by thin liquidity and renewed macro uncertainty rather than a fundamental shift in market structure. With geopolitical headlines and tariff risks back in focus, short-term volatility is likely to remain elevated until clearer signals emerge from broader markets.

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

Monday is mainly controlled by bears, according to CoinStats.

BTC chart by CoinStatsBTC/USDThe price of Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen by 2.17% since yesterday.

Image by TradingViewOn the hourly chart, the rate of BTC is in the middle of the local channel, between the support at $91,917 and the resistance at $93,632. As most of the daily ATR has passed, there are low chances of seeing sharp moves by tomorrow.

Image by TradingViewOn the longer time frame, none of the sides has seized the initiative yet. The volume remains low, confirming the absence of bulls and bears' strength. 

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In this case, sideways trading in the zone of $93,000-$94,000 is the most likely scenario over the next few days.

Image by TradingViewFrom the midterm point of view, traders should pay attention to the nearest level at $95,938. Until the price is below that mark, bears are more powerful than bulls, which means one may expect a further correction of BTC.

Bitcoin is trading at $92,901 at press time.

Mon, 19/01/2026 - 16:19

Peter Schiff's latest Bitcoin crash warning may not be FUD this time, as death cross and a $69,000 magnet signal a potential 27% collapse that could validate his bearish thesis.

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

Peter Schiff is back with another Bitcoin obituary, but this time, the situation might be more than just his usual goldbug ritual. The man known as probably the biggest critic of the cryptocurrency is not just speaking out against BTC on principle; he is pointing to something that actually shows up on the charts.

After Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,000 last year, the world's biggest cryptocurrency has dropped about 30%, while gold surged 65% in the same period. This is now causing a bigger narrative problem. According to Schiff, Bitcoin's inability to keep up with the precious metal's performance calls into question the whole "digital gold" idea. The market is slowly catching on to this mismatch. 

Everyone expects Bitcoin to follow gold’s lead and rally to new highs. But the market has given speculators way too much time to buy. What’s far more likely is that Bitcoin’s failure to match gold’s gains undermines its narrative as digital gold, resulting in a spectacular crash.

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— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) January 19, 2026 Basically, Schiff says the market gave speculators too much time to buy, and the likely outcome is a "spectacular crash." What makes this prediction a bit more concerning than usual is the chart setup. 

Bitcoin is now close to a death cross between its 23-day and 50-day moving averages right at $100,000 price point. No need to say how much importance this level holds for cryptocurrency. The 200-day EMA, which is currently around $69,000, is like a magnet for the current price action around $93,000. If it goes back to that level, which is by the way the all-time high of 2021, it would be a 27% drop.

Strategy did not buy Bitcoin?Adding to the uncertainty: MicroStrategy has not said anything yet. On Mondays, Michael Saylor usually announces another round of corporate Bitcoin purchases. Today, he posted only "Bitcoin never takes holidays." No purchase disclosed.

Of course, Peter Schiff immediately fired back, saying "you can lose money in Bitcoin 365 days a year."

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If the price does not bounce back to $101,000-$102,000 per BTC, where the moving averages meet, the sell-off might speed up. It is possible that Schiff's call is not just trolling this time; the "spectacular crash" might actually come true.

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Bitcoin’s price action in recent days has shifted from controlled upward momentum to rejection in the past 24 hours. After failing to hold above $97,000 last week, Bitcoin has rolled over with expanding downside momentum, printing consecutive indecisive bearish candles on the daily timeframe.

An interesting view was laid out in a recent technical analysis shared on X by a crypto analyst known as Guru, who argued that what many traders mistook for consolidation was, in fact, a late-stage distribution phase for Bitcoin.

Rejection At The Range Top Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s price action on the daily candlestick timeframe chart shows that the leading cryptocurrency has been trading in an ascending channel with a series of higher lows and higher highs since November 2025. An ascending channel is generally bullish, since it suggests buyers are increasingly gaining control.

However, the outlook laid out by Guru projects Bitcoin’s price action resolving into a bearish downturn. Notably, Bitcoin’s price action recently pushed into the upper boundary of the range and was firmly rejected. This rejection is the focal point of his analysis. Instead of a breakout or a clean continuation higher, Bitcoin failed to sustain momentum at resistance, which is a sign that sellers are stepping in.

Source: Chart from Guru on X In Guru’s view, this behavior is inconsistent with accumulation. He describes the structure as a rising range forming after a completed expansion. The rejection at the upper boundary means supply is overwhelming demand, even though the price is trending slightly higher within the range. 

Based on this, the analyst warned that the “party is over” for bulls as a final warning for traders before a projected downturn. “Last call to SELL before the REAL crash hits below 80K. Bulls won’t get another warning,” he said.

Price Target And The Bearish Roadmap Guru’s analysis is very specific when it comes to where he believes Bitcoin is headed if the range continues to hold as resistance. In terms of a price target, the analyst projected a move that sees BTC falling below $80,000 and even extending the crash below $76,000. 

As it stands, Bitcoin is trading at $92,930, having retraced by 2.1% in the past 24 hours. What has added validity to Guru’s prediction is the comparison between his previous analysis in December 2025 and the current price action. A month ago, he shared the same rising channel and outlined a path that he expected the price of Bitcoin to follow within the channel. 

Bitcoin respected the channel throughout December, bounced within its boundaries, and then rejected almost precisely where the projection suggested. The subsequent decline is unfolding along the same path he outlined. This alignment has led Guru to double down on his bearish outlook.

The analyst also challenged the narrative of BTC as a dependable store of value in what he describes as a “chaos economy” in 2026.

BTC trading at $93,086 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

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TL;DR

Lookonchain tracked 7,798 ETH, about $25 million, moving to Binance after two years of staking; the wallet may possibly link to Fenbushi Capital. The deposit landed as ETH fell 4.5% from $3,360 to the $3,220 area after a week of sideways trading. CoinShares data showed $1.55 billion of Bitcoin inflows and $496 million into Ethereum since October, while tariff headlines pushed BTC from $95,460 to $92,490 before rebounding to $93,180. Lookonchain flagged a large Ethereum move: 7,798 ETH, valued near $25 million, landed on Binance from a single wallet. The tracker said the funds had been staked for two years and were withdrawn before the deposit, a pattern commonly associated with preparing to sell. The key point is that a long-dormant, yield-generating position suddenly became exchange-ready liquidity. Lookonchain added the wallet may be linked to Fenbushi Capital, a crypto asset manager founded in 2015, though attribution remains unconfirmed. Either way, desks are watching for immediate sell-through signals.

A wallet possibly linked to Fenbushi Capital just deposited 7,798 $ETH($25M) into #Binance after staking for 2 years.https://t.co/rkH4MV5aYJ pic.twitter.com/DRvtlHNa0T

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) January 19, 2026

Whale Exit Meets ETH Dip and Institutional Flow Backdrop The timing amplified attention because ETH was already slipping. The report notes a 4.5% intraday drop, with Ethereum falling from $3,360 into the $3,220 zone where it was trading at the time. A week earlier, ETH had climbed almost 8%, from $3,080 to roughly $3,330, then drifted sideways inside that range. In a choppy tape, an exchange deposit this size reads like optional supply that can hit bids quickly. That uncertainty is what makes the transfer noteworthy for short-term positioning. It raises questions about who de-risks first when volatility spikes.

The deposit also arrived as crypto investment products saw their biggest weekly inflow since October, according to a CoinShares report. Bitcoin led with $1.55 billion of inflows, while Ethereum drew $496 million and Solana added $45 million; XRP attracted $69.5 million. That backdrop creates a tension: inflow data suggests accumulation, while one whale action hints at distribution. For portfolio managers, the two signals can coexist, but they change execution and risk timing. The first such surge since October, resetting conversations across desks.

Macro headlines were part of the mood shift. New U.S. trade tariffs against Europe pushed Bitcoin down 3.12%, sliding from $95,460 to $92,490 before rebounding to about $93,180. A CryptoQuant analyst argued the rebound reflected recovery of real spot buying demand rather than a leverage-driven futures rally. Separately, silver hit $94 per ounce, drawing attention. When cross-asset volatility rises, even isolated onchain moves can look like early risk reduction. That is the lens traders applied to this ETH transfer. Risk committees stay on alert.

Donnie plans to leverage sweeping tariffs on Europe in a bid to acquire Greenland as a hidden macro narrative for XRP.

Market Sentiment:

Bullish Bearish Neutral

Published: January 19, 2026 │ 3:45 PM GMT

Created by Gabor Kovacs from DailyCoin

Crypto YouTuber & XRP analyst Levi is tying one of the strangest geopolitical stories of the year to a potential volatility spike in digital assets.

In a recent video, Levi claims President Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on a slate of European countries—with a jump to 25% on June 1 if the U.S. fails to reach a deal to acquire Greenland—and argues this could become a decisive macro shock for XRP over the coming weeks.

Sponsored

The creator frames it starkly: “This is gonna be the most impactful thing that’s gonna happen to the markets over the course of the next couple of weeks” adding that 2026 “is gonna be a roller coaster ride” and this development will “expedite the process.”

The Greenland Tariff Claim Links Back To XRP?According to the video, Trump’s new tariffs target France, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom, covering an estimated $1.2 trillion in annual bilateral trade. The rate, the host says, rises from 10% to 25% on June 1 and “will not be lifted until a deal is reached on Greenland.”

None of this is independently verified in the video, but the analysis proceeds on that premise: tariffs as leverage to secure Greenland for “strategic military purposes and shipping routes with the Arctic opening up.”

From there, the commentator draws a line to XRP. Tariff shocks, the analyst said, tend to trigger “risk-off sentiment” similar to the 2018–2019 U.S.–China trade war, pushing investors out of higher-risk assets like crypto. He notes that past tariff escalations have historically taken “over two years” for XRP to fully recover, especially when they coincided with stalled Ripple partnerships.

At the time of recording, XRP is described as “relatively steady” around $2, with Bollinger Bands tightening—often a precursor to a large move in either direction.

Systemic Political Stress Meets Bi-Folded XRP NarrativeA large part of the video leans on history. The host cites the 1930 Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act, which contributed to a 66% collapse in global trade, as a cautionary reference point. In a modern setting, he suggests similar dynamics—retaliatory tariffs, higher consumer prices, and supply chain frictions—could add roughly $2,600–$3,900 per year to U.S. household costs.

That kind of pressure, Levi argues, has previously coincided with “exponential” XRP rallies as investors look for inflation hedges and alternative rails for cross‑border value transfer. He positions XRP as an eventual beneficiary of a more fragmented global trading system, even if the initial move could be sharply negative.

Much hinges, in his view, on Europe’s response: whether the EU retaliates against U.S. exports like tech and pharma or “backs down and lets Trump acquire Greenland.” The video offers no hard evidence that either is imminent, but treats the EU reaction as the primary trigger for a “cataclysmic event” similar to drawdowns seen in April and October of 2025.

Banking Backlash, Elon’s X Woes &The Big Crypto RailThe Greenland thesis is wrapped into a broader argument about financial control. The host says Trump and his family were “debanked” by JPMorgan and notes Trump is now suing the bank, using this as a case study for why political risk in banking will drive people toward crypto: “You can’t debank people from crypto currency… with crypto you become your own bank.”

You think Elon Musk doesn’t know about $XRP?

He’s building X Money to fix global payments. That means one thing: he’ll need rails.

And the only rails that are fast, scalable, and live today?

XRP LEDGER.

Ripple has built the infrastructure Elon needs, from real-time settlement… https://t.co/A051Sztz8L pic.twitter.com/cfVzFG7pni

— X Finance Bull (@Xfinancebull) November 18, 2025 Levi then plays a clip of Elon Musk describing his vision for X as a global financial platform that could eventually represent “maybe half of the global financial system” and function as “the most efficient database for the thing that is money.” The host asserts that “of course crypto is gonna be a large part of this,” pointing to recent public hints of crypto integration at X, and suggesting blockchain infrastructure will be central if Musk wants real‑time, low‑fraud global payments.

For XRP holders, the through-line is clear but speculative: rising geopolitical and financial friction, more aggressive use of tariffs, and visible de-banking controversies could all accelerate migration toward neutral, cross‑border settlement assets. In Levi’s framing, the next EU move on tariffs—and the June 1 deadline he cites—may be an early stress test of that thesis.

Check out DailyCoin’s latest crypto news now:
Crypto Cards Hit $18B Market, Bringing Stablecoins to Everyday Spending
SWIFT Trials On XRP & HBAR Done: Who Wins The Crown?

People Also AskDoes the video provide independent evidence of the Greenland–tariff linkage?

No. The host presents it as fact but does not cite documents, official statements, or third‑party reporting.

What XRP price level is mentioned?

He cites XRP trading around $2 support with widening Bollinger Bands, implying an impending large move.

How is Elon Musk’s X platform connected to XRP in the video?

XRP is not directly named by Musk. The host infers that X’s global finance ambitions will require crypto rails and sees that as consistent with the long‑term XRP narrative.

What should crypto investors take away from this?

The video treats potential tariff escalation and EU retaliation as near‑term volatility catalysts and argues that, over a longer horizon, growing distrust in banks and payment intermediaries could favor crypto-based cross‑border systems such as those built around XRP.

DailyCoin's Vibe Check: Which way are you leaning towards after reading this article?

Market Sentiment

100% Bullish

This article is for information purposes only and should not be considered trading or investment advice. Nothing herein shall be construed as financial, legal, or tax advice. Trading forex, cryptocurrencies, and CFDs pose a considerable risk of loss.

TLDR Table of Contents

TLDRTreasury Swells Past 687,000 BitcoinStock Performance Lags Bitcoin GainsConversion Window Creates PressureGet 3 Free Stock Ebooks Michael Saylor’s “Bigger Orange” post on X suggests Strategy is preparing another Bitcoin acquisition Strategy purchased 14,910 BTC in January 2026, including a $1.25 billion buy on January 11 The company’s treasury now contains 687,410 Bitcoin with an average cost of $75,353 per coin Bitcoin trades around $92,600, putting Strategy’s holdings in profitable territory MSTR stock fell 52.67% over 12 months while billions in convertible debt matures in 2027-2028 Strategy chairman Michael Saylor is at it again. A Sunday post on X suggests the company is gearing up for another Bitcoin purchase.

Saylor shared a StrategyTracker screenshot displaying Bitcoin’s price history alongside the company’s previous buy dates. His caption contained just two words: “Bigger Orange.”

The cryptic message follows Saylor’s established playbook. He routinely uses social media to telegraph upcoming Bitcoin purchases before formal announcements.

Strategy Inc, MSTR

Strategy has already made moves this month. The company opened 2026 with a $115.97 million acquisition of 1,283 BTC on January 4.

The follow-up was much larger. Strategy purchased 13,627 BTC for $1.25 billion on January 11. Those two transactions brought the month’s total to 14,910 Bitcoin.

Treasury Swells Past 687,000 Bitcoin Strategy’s Bitcoin stash now totals 687,410 BTC. The company paid an average of $75,353 for each coin in its treasury.

Current Bitcoin prices around $92,600 put the holdings in profit. The treasury’s market value exceeds $63 billion based on today’s trading levels.

StrategyTracker confirms every Bitcoin in the company’s possession was acquired below current market rates. The paper gains provide cushion against price volatility.

Recent market turbulence hasn’t deterred buying plans. Bitcoin dropped 2.6% in the last 24 hours amid U.S.-Europe tariff tensions affecting risk assets.

Stock Performance Lags Bitcoin Gains MSTR shares tell a different story than the Bitcoin treasury. The stock has plunged approximately 52.67% over the past year, closing at $173.71 on January 16.

That gap raises questions about the strategy’s effectiveness. Bitcoin holdings show healthy returns while shareholders have watched equity values crater.

Strategy finances purchases through various mechanisms. Convertible notes serve as the primary funding vehicle, allowing capital raises without immediate cash outlays.

These debt instruments carry future obligations. Billions of dollars in notes become convertible between late 2027 and 2028.

Conversion Window Creates Pressure The approaching timeline puts Strategy in a tight spot. The company must ensure sufficient capital when note holders exercise conversion rights.

Management has maintained they possess adequate resources. Leadership statements emphasize confidence in meeting debt obligations as they mature.

An alternative exists if needed. Strategy has acknowledged it could liquidate Bitcoin holdings to generate capital. That fallback option remains available as conversion dates near.

So far, the company hasn’t required that measure. Bitcoin’s price trajectory has kept the treasury comfortably profitable.

Bitcoin traded just above $92,600 during Asian morning trading Monday.

Anas Hassan

Crypto Journalist

Anas Hassan

Part of the Team Since

Jun 2025

About Author

Anas is a crypto native journalist and SEO writer with over five years of writing experience covering blockchain, crypto, DeFi, and emerging tech.

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Last updated: 

10 minutes ago

Privacy-focused cryptocurrencies surged over the past week, even as Bitcoin and most altcoins tumbled, with the sector climbing 13% while nearly $1 billion in positions were liquidated across broader markets following Trump’s tariff threat on Europe over Greenland.

The rally has pushed privacy tokens, including Monero, Dash, and DUSK, into the spotlight amid widespread crypto weakness, indicating what analysts describe as selective capital rotation rather than traditional risk-off behavior.

Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin dropped nearly 3%, while most altcoins fell between 3% and 10%; privacy coins, however, moved in the opposite direction, according to CoinGecko data.

Dash traded at $81.61, up 1.9% on the day and 119% over the week, while Monero, which hit a new all-time high last Thursday, traded around $644, gaining 8.9% in 24 hours.

Source: CoinGeckoDUSK posted the steepest gains, surging 110.5% daily and over 354% weekly, bringing the privacy coin category’s market capitalization to $21.7 billion with $2.4 billion in trading volume.

Structural Demand Replaces Stablecoins as Safe HavenSpeaking with Cryptonews, Ray Youssef, CEO of crypto app NoOnes, explained that the strength in assets like Monero, Dash, and DUSK reflects investors seeking to preserve capital without fully exiting crypto positions.

“Privacy coins’ outperformance during a broad market pullback is an indicator of selective risk-taking by investors who prefer not to fully de-risk or exit their positions in the crypto markets,” Youssef said, adding that while stablecoins traditionally served as the preferred safe haven during volatility, “privacy coins now offer a compelling alternative by aligning with the trend toward censorship resistance.“

The renewed interest comes amid ongoing debates over stablecoin rewards in the U.S. market structure bill and escalating trade tensions, creating conditions where some market participants anticipate continued volatility.

Investors are increasingly seeking assets that can decouple from broader market weakness and show resilience during periods of macro stress.

Youssef pointed to tightening KYC and AML requirements worldwide as key catalysts pushing users toward protocol-embedded financial privacy.

The mass freezing of stablecoins has accelerated this shift, most notably Tether’s freezing of over $182 million in USDT across five addresses on January 11.

From 2023 to early 2026, Tether froze over 7,000 wallets totaling approximately $3.3 billion USDT, primarily citing illegal activity.

“This raises the question of complete centralized control over assets previously considered immutable and decentralized,” Youssef noted, arguing that “privacy coins are taking on a new role, becoming a form of financial independence from corporate and regulatory structures.“

Dubai’s International Financial Centre’s prohibition on privacy tokens trading due to AML and sanctions risks announced last week has failed to interrupt the bullish trend.

Despite these regulatory headwinds, the sector has continued to post gains.

“Remarkably, even the ban on privacy coin trading announced last week by Dubai authorities hasn’t interrupted their bullish trend,” Youssef observed.

Technical Momentum Points to Further UpsidePrivacy coins have outperformed large-cap assets across several recent market downturns, establishing divergence patterns that could cement their role in strategic portfolios.

“Privacy is once again recognized as fundamental to decentralization,” Youssef said, noting that “the core use case and technology of privacy coins remain relevant, especially amid ongoing concerns about peer risk, sovereign surveillance, and the future of digital finance.“

With DUSK posting over 540% growth in 30 days, market participants are watching whether it can sustain momentum and join established privacy leaders.

DUSK Price Chart. | Source: CoinGecko“If privacy coins’ strength endures, we could see XMR at $650, Dash at $90, and DUSK at $0.28 in the coming days,” Youssef projected.

Pavel Nikienkov, founder of Zano, also emphasized last week that privacy represents more than a passing trend.

“Privacy isn’t a passing trend,” Nikienkov stated, pointing to a16z’s 2025 State of Crypto report, which highlights sharp rises in Google search interest for privacy-related terms.

He argued that mainstream blockchains like Ethereum and Solana, by integrating optional privacy layers, indicate the sector’s maturation, though “only systems designed for confidentiality” can meaningfully protect users in an increasingly surveilled digital landscape.

Bitcoin trading is entering Belgium’s mainstream banking system. KBC Bank has announced plans to facilitate the buying and selling of Bitcoin using its Bolero investment platform. Let’s break it down. With this move, Bitcoin trading is no longer limited to crypto exchanges in Belgium.

What KBC Bank Is Launching KBC Bank, one of Belgium’s largest financial institutions, will launch Bitcoin and Ethereum trading for retail customers on February 16. You will get access to this service through Bolero, KBC’s popular online investment platform. KBC is the first bank in Belgium to enable its clients to trade in crypto directly, without breaking European regulations.

LATEST: 🏦 KBC Bank will launch Bitcoin and Ethereum trading on Feb. 16 via its Bolero platform, becoming Belgium’s first bank to offer crypto within a regulated framework. pic.twitter.com/EgmCiR9cWF

— CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) January 16, 2026

How Bitcoin Trading Will Work on Bolero The new Bitcoin trading feature will be easy to use, especially for users who already invest in stocks or ETFs on Bolero.
Customers will be able to:

Buy and sell Bitcoin (BTC). Trade Ethereum (ETH). Transfer with their existing Bolero accounts. There is, however, one limitation to it. Cryptocurrency trading is a closed economy. It means users cannot transfer their Bitcoin and Ethereum to external wallets. Everything remains in Bolero.

Why Regulation Matters Here KBC’s crypto offering operates under the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework. The purpose of this regulation is not only to cover the investors but also to introduce sanity to the crypto market. KBC is treating Bitcoin trading as a regulated financial instrument, rather than a risky investment, by adhering to MiCA regulations. To most users, this provides a sense of trust and security that is not possible with conventional crypto exchanges.

JUST IN: 🇧🇪 Belgium’s second largest bank KBC to become the first bank in the country to offer Bitcoin trading 🙌 pic.twitter.com/0RuvaVkZNG

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) January 15, 2026

This move lowers the barrier to entry for crypto investing. Individuals who were not keen on crypto applications or wallets can now enjoy Bitcoin trading through a bank they feel comfortable with. It is also a sign of a change in banks’ perception of digital assets. KBC is embracing crypto rather than shunning it and making it part of the mainstream finance sector.

Conclusion The introduction of Bitcoin trading at KBC is a significant step to crypto-adoption in Belgium. It merges the familiarity of the banking industry with the increased need of digital assets.

Disclaimer The information provided by Altcoin Buzz is not financial advice. It is intended solely for educational, entertainment, and informational purposes. Any opinions or strategies shared are those of the writer/reviewers, and their risk tolerance may differ from yours. We are not liable for any losses you may incur from investments related to the information given. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are high-risk assets; therefore, conduct thorough due diligence. Copyright Altcoin Buzz Pte Ltd.

Bitcoin’s liquidity levels are at the center of a debate concerning the cryptocurrency’s potential future price movements. The primary discussion revolves around whether current liquidity conditions indicate that Bitcoin has yet to reach its price peak. This conversation gains importance as market participants analyze the cryptocurrency’s trajectory.

Liquidity in financial markets, including Bitcoin, often influences price volatility and can impact investor behavior. High liquidity generally suggests that an asset can be bought or sold with minimal effect on its price, potentially leading to more stable trading conditions. In the context of Bitcoin, this could mean sustained trading activity and further price movements.

Crypto analysts are divided on whether Bitcoin’s current liquidity signals a continuation of its upward trend or if it is approaching a peak. Some analysts believe that the strong liquidity conditions support the idea of continued growth in Bitcoin’s price. They argue that as long as liquidity remains robust, there is potential for further gains.

Conversely, other market observers warn that high liquidity might not necessarily guarantee a continued price increase. They point out that external factors, such as regulatory changes or macroeconomic shifts, could also influence Bitcoin’s future performance, irrespective of liquidity levels.

The discussion surrounding Bitcoin’s liquidity and price potential is crucial for investors who are trying to navigate the volatile cryptocurrency markets. Decisions made in this context can have significant impacts on investment strategies and outcomes.

Regulatory factors could also play a role in shaping Bitcoin’s liquidity and price trajectory. With increased scrutiny from financial authorities worldwide, any new regulations or enforcement actions could affect trading activity and investor sentiment.

As the debate continues, market participants are keenly watching for any developments that might provide clearer signals on Bitcoin’s future. This includes monitoring liquidity trends, potential regulatory changes, and shifts in macroeconomic conditions that could influence the cryptocurrency’s direction.

No immediate comment was provided by major Bitcoin exchanges or regulatory bodies regarding the current liquidity conditions and their impact on Bitcoin prices.

The ongoing dialogue around Bitcoin’s liquidity and its implications for price movements will likely remain a focal point among investors, analysts, and regulators. As these discussions evolve, the cryptocurrency market waits for the next significant development in Bitcoin’s price journey.

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ASTER Slumps 75% to New Lows as Hyperliquid Pulls Ahead — Is the Perp DEX Race Already Over?

Hassan Shittu

Journalist

Hassan Shittu

Part of the Team Since

Jun 2023

About Author

Hassan, a Cryptonews.com journalist with 6+ years of experience in Web3 journalism, brings deep knowledge across Crypto, Web3 Gaming, NFTs, and Play-to-Earn sectors. His work has appeared in...

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7 minutes ago

A sharp sell-off in Aster’s token is drawing fresh attention to the decentralized perpetuals trading sector, even as overall derivatives activity remains historically high.

ASTER fell roughly 75% from its peak to trade near new lows this week, showing the growing gap between platforms that are capturing durable trading interest and those struggling to hold on once incentives fade.

The decline has unfolded as Hyperliquid extends its lead over rivals, raising questions about whether the race among perp-focused decentralized exchanges is already tilting decisively in one direction.

Hyperliquid Pulls Ahead as ASTER Selloff DeepensAt the time of writing, ASTER was trading around $0.62, down more than 13% over the past 24 hours. The decline follows weeks of sustained weakness, with the token down over 11% in the last seven days and nearly 74% below its all-time high of $2.41.

Source: CoingeckoTrading activity surged during the selloff, with 24-hour volume jumping more than 300% to over $300 million, pointing to heightened short-term positioning rather than a recovery in confidence.

Data from DefiLlama shows that the overall activity in the sector continues to explode, with cumulative perp volume exceeding $803 billion over 30 days.

Total perp trading volume over the past 24 hours stood near $19.9 billion, while open interest reached about $20.6 billion.

Source: DefiLlamaMarket data shows Hyperliquid pulling further ahead in both trading volume and open interest, two metrics that traders tend to treat differently.

Over the past seven days, Hyperliquid processed about $40.7 billion in perpetual futures volume, according to figures compiled from CryptoRank and DefiLlama.

That compared with roughly $31.7 billion on Aster and $25.3 billion on Lighter over the same period.

Hyperliquid reclaims the perps throne

As Lighter’s airdrop is distributed, the platform’s volumes have started to fade – weekly volume has decreased nearly 3x from its peak.@HyperliquidX has captured the lead and is now ranked 1st by volume and open interest.@variational_io… pic.twitter.com/LChbSdaU8a

— CryptoRank.io (@CryptoRank_io) January 18, 2026 The divergence becomes more pronounced when looking at open interest, which reflects where traders are willing to keep leveraged positions open rather than simply rotate trades.

Hyperliquid recorded about $9.57 billion in open interest over the past 24 hours, exceeding the combined $7.34 billion held across rival platforms, including Aster, Lighter, Variational, edgeX, and Paradex.

The widening gap suggests traders are increasingly using Hyperliquid as a primary venue to hold leveraged positions, rather than simply rotating capital in search of short-term incentives.

The shift has become more apparent as reward-driven activity cools across the sector.

Buybacks Roll Out as Unlocks Cloud Perp DEX OutlookLighter, which saw a surge in trading ahead of its airdrop late last year, has experienced a sharp slowdown since the distribution, with weekly volumes falling significantly from their December highs.

Also, the LIT token has dropped to new lows, losing more than a third of its value over the past month as a significant share of airdropped tokens moved into the market.

Source: CoingeckoIn an effort to support its token, Aster recently activated what it calls a Strategic Buyback Reserve.

We're now actively deploying our Strategic Buyback Reserve for $ASTER token repurchases automatically.

Building on our Stage 5 Buyback Program announced last month, this activation allocates 20-40% of daily platform fees into targeted buybacks, responding dynamically to market… https://t.co/cIbles9eHM

— Aster (@Aster_DEX) January 19, 2026 The program builds on a broader buyback framework announced in December, under which up to 80% of daily fees can be directed to automatic and discretionary buybacks, all executed on-chain.

However, the scale of upcoming token unlocks remains a central concern for the market.

Aster has significant token unlocks scheduled through 2026, including quarterly releases of roughly 183 million ASTER in January and April, followed by additional large releases mid-year and ongoing monthly emissions.

Although the team previously delayed unlocks to build utility and reduce near-term pressure, the scale of upcoming supply has become a focal point for traders assessing downside risk.

While incentive-driven activity has cooled across the sector, Hyperliquid has continued to attract capital even as its token, HYPE, has weakened alongside the broader market.

Summary

Louisiana retirement fund reveals $3.2 million Bitcoin-linked equity betLASERS joins other US public funds using MSTR as a Bitcoin proxyMicroStrategy’s 190,000+ BTC stack underpins the investment caseMarket performance, upside hopes, and valuation premiumCriticism of Strategy’s model and leverage-heavy approachPublic funds lean into crypto-linked equitiesInstitutional adoption through regulated structures set to grow Louisiana retirement fund reveals $3.2 million Bitcoin-linked equity bet Louisiana’s main public retirement system has quietly increased its crypto footprint by using microstrategy stock as an indirect way to tap into Bitcoin’s price performance.

The Louisiana State Employees’ Retirement System (LASERS) has disclosed a $3.2 million position in Strategy Inc. (MSTR), highlighting how public funds are turning to equity markets for Bitcoin exposure instead of buying the asset directly.

According to the latest portfolio report, LASERS holds 17,900 MSTR shares in the Bitcoin-focused software company. At the time of the disclosure, the microstrategy stock price was about $179 per share, valuing the stake at roughly $3.2 million.

LASERS joins other US public funds using MSTR as a Bitcoin proxy LASERS oversees approximately $15.6 billion in retirement assets for Louisiana state employees. Its new MSTR allocation signals a broader effort to gain institutional bitcoin proxy exposure via regulated securities. Moreover, the fund is moving in step with other US public pensions exploring Bitcoin through listed companies.

This approach places Louisiana alongside New York’s public fund, which boosted its own MSTR holdings to $50 million in December 2025. While Louisiana’s position is smaller in dollar terms, it reinforces the trend of state-level institutions using corporate balance sheets as a bridge into crypto markets.

In addition to MSTR, the LASERS portfolio features large positions in leading US technology names, including Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet. That said, the MSTR allocation stands out because it is directly linked to Bitcoin reserves rather than traditional software revenues.

MicroStrategy’s 190,000+ BTC stack underpins the investment case Strategy, chaired by Michael Saylor, has transformed from an enterprise software provider into one of the most aggressive corporate buyers of Bitcoin. As of its most recent filing, the company holds more than 190,000 BTC on its balance sheet.

The firm recently purchased 13,627 BTC for $1.25 billion, paying an average of $91,519 per coin. However, this accumulation strategy has also increased the company’s sensitivity to crypto market swings, making its equity behave more like a leveraged Bitcoin instrument than a conventional tech stock.

Bitcoin itself recently surged above $97,000 before sliding back below $93,000, underlining the volatility that funds accept when they use listed vehicles for microstrategy bitcoin exposure. Despite the choppy price action, Strategy’s reported market net asset value (mNAV) stands at 1.07, showing the shares trade at a premium to the underlying Bitcoin value.

Market performance, upside hopes, and valuation premium Many institutional investors treat MSTR as a de facto Bitcoin tracker with corporate leverage. Louisiana’s $3.2 million bet suggests that LASERS expects Bitcoin to recover and potentially push MSTR closer to its 12‑month peak near $450. Moreover, the position comes despite significant recent downside in the share price.

Over the past six months, Strategy shares have fallen by 61%, reflecting both crypto sector weakness and concerns over the company’s debt-fueled expansion. However, the stock gained 4% last week and closed Friday up 1.6% at $173, signaling renewed buyer interest after the steep drawdown.

For long-term allocators, the current stock price microstrategy level may appear attractive relative to previous highs, although the ongoing premium to mNAV highlights that investors are still paying extra for access to the Bitcoin treasury and Saylor’s strategy.

Criticism of Strategy’s model and leverage-heavy approach The company’s heavy reliance on Bitcoin accumulation has drawn scrutiny from parts of Wall Street and the crypto industry. Some observers argue that its dependence on new capital makes the business inherently risky, especially during prolonged bear markets.

Financial analyst Herb Greenberg has gone as far as labeling Strategy a “quasi Ponzi scheme,” pointing to limited operating income from core software products and frequent use of debt and equity offerings to finance Bitcoin purchases. That said, supporters counter that the firm is effectively operating as an alternative asset vehicle rather than a traditional software house.

Michael Saylor has repeatedly defended the playbook. In an interview with CNBC, he compared Strategy’s financing model to property developers in New York, arguing that “just like developers in Manhattan issue more debt when real estate rises, we use similar methods” to expand Bitcoin holdings during bull cycles.

Public funds lean into crypto-linked equities Public retirement funds increasingly favor crypto-linked equities instead of direct token custody, citing regulatory clarity and established market infrastructure. In that context, microstrategy stock offers a familiar brokerage-based route for gaining crypto exposure within existing compliance frameworks.

Strategy has also experimented with preferred share offerings branded under names such as “Strike” and “Stretch”. These instruments promised fixed dividends structured around Bitcoin performance, effectively blending traditional income features with crypto-linked upside. However, they also introduce complexity for risk managers assessing capital structure and payout conditions.

According to Saylor, these products fit into a broader effort to make Strategy function like a high-beta Bitcoin vehicle for equity investors. He has said that while the stock is “not a high-yield bank account,” it can resemble one during strong bull phases when Bitcoin prices surge and balance sheet gains widen.

Institutional adoption through regulated structures set to grow The LASERS move adds Louisiana to a growing list of US states experimenting with digital asset exposure through listed companies and other regulated structures. Moreover, it underscores how pension managers are seeking upside from crypto markets while attempting to avoid direct custody and on-chain operational risks.

As Bitcoin’s market cap expands and more corporates follow Strategy’s playbook, analysts expect additional public retirement fund investment via equities and structured products. For now, Louisiana’s $3.2 million stake may be modest relative to its $15.6 billion in assets, but it marks a clear signal that crypto-linked strategies are entering mainstream institutional portfolios.

In summary, Louisiana’s allocation to MSTR highlights the growing role of regulated, Bitcoin-heavy companies in bridging traditional pensions and digital assets, even as volatility, leverage, and business-model concerns continue to drive debate around the long-term sustainability of this approach.

Alessia Pannone

Graduated in communication sciences, currently student of the master's degree course in publishing and writing. Writer of articles from an SEO perspective, with care for indexing in search engines.

Active Currencies 18941

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AMBCrypto

Hyperliquid leads Solana and Ethereum in fees – What it means for HYPE

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Posted: January 19, 2026

Samyukhtha L KM is a Financial Journalist and Market Analyst at AMBCrypto whose work is defined by one central question: Is the latest trend in blockchain hype, or history in the making? Her expertise is built on a strong academic foundation, with a Master’s in Journalism and Mass Communication from Amity University and a Bachelor’s in Commerce from the University of Madras. This dual qualification equips her with a unique skill set: the financial acumen to dissect market mechanics and the journalistic rigor to investigate and communicate complex subjects with clarity. Samyukhtha specializes in analyzing the socio-economic impact of blockchain adoption and assessing the viability of new market narratives. This includes a focus on high-velocity, community-driven assets such as memecoins, where she evaluates sentiment and fundamentals. She is dedicated to providing readers with insightful, well-researched commentary that looks beyond immediate market moves to understand the long-term implications of decentralized technology.

In a recent social media post, Canadian billionaire Frank Giustra argues that it is easier to confiscate Bitcoin compared to gold. 

The argument that Bitcoin is easier to confiscate than gold cuts directly against one of the asset’s most cherished myths: that it is inherently resistant to state power. 

Is Bitcoin actually more vulnerable to confiscation?  Bitcoin’s design makes ownership transparent in a way gold has never been. Every transaction is permanently recorded on a public ledger. Addresses can be clustered, and different types of behavior can be analyzed.  

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Confiscation does not require physical access, given that it is sufficient to have enough legal authority and leverage over custodians, service providers, or the individual holder. As noted by Giustra, America's national Bitcoin reserve is entirely comprised of confiscated coins. 

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Gold, by contrast, exists largely outside digital systems. Physical possession still matters. It can be stored privately, moved discreetly, and transferred without leaving a global audit trail. 

Confiscating gold is logistically expensive and politically visible. It requires search, seizure, storage, and enforcement at scale. 

Bitcoin requires none of that. A court order, an exchange subpoena, or pressure applied to a custodian can achieve the same outcome with far less friction. This should give investors pause. 

"It can certainly go up" Despite recognizing Bitcoin's flaws, Giustra does not think that the flagship cryptocurrency will disappear overnight. In fact, he does not rule out that it might even go up in price. 

"I never said it would disappear, and I have always said it can certainly go up in price. Never been my point," he said. 

The Canadian tycoon takes issue with the methods, with the help of which the flagship cryptocurrency is being promoted to the general public. He claims that this promotion is mostly based on "greed and FOMO."

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson has publicly criticized Brad Garlinghouse, the chief executive of Ripple. 

Hoskinson’s comments were aimed at Garlinghouse’s support for advancing crypto legislation in the United States, even if the rules are not viewed as perfect by all industry participants.

Dispute Over Crypto Regulation StrategyAt the center of the disagreement is how the crypto industry should engage with lawmakers. Garlinghouse and Ripple have argued that passing clearer rules is better than continued regulatory uncertainty. Several major firms, including exchanges and stablecoin issuers, have backed this approach.

Hoskinson, however, questioned whether supporting such legislation could hand too much power to regulators who previously took enforcement action against crypto companies.

Ripple’s Legal History Shapes Its ViewRipple spent years fighting a high-profile lawsuit brought by U.S. regulators, a legal battle that cost the company hundreds of millions of dollars. Supporters of Ripple say that experience explains why Garlinghouse is pushing for clearer laws to avoid a repeat of what the industry faced in the past.

They also note that Ripple and other large firms have invested heavily in lobbying efforts to shape crypto regulation in Washington.

Industry Not United on the IssueThe dispute shows a broader split within crypto. Some companies believe compromise is necessary to protect digital assets and provide long-term certainty. Others argue that weak or rushed laws could create new risks.

Hoskinson suggested that the debate is being framed too narrowly, saying the issue goes beyond one company or one executive and reflects deeper disagreements about the future of crypto regulation.

A Sign of Growing TensionsWhile the exchange has drawn attention on social media, it also shows rising tensions as governments move closer to setting firm rules for digital assets.

As policymakers weigh new legislation, disagreements among industry leaders like Hoskinson and Garlinghouse show that crypto’s next phase may be shaped as much by internal debate as by regulatory action.

Trust with CoinPedia:CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017. All content is created by our expert panel of analysts and journalists, following strict Editorial Guidelines based on E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness). Every article is fact-checked against reputable sources to ensure accuracy, transparency, and reliability. Our review policy guarantees unbiased evaluations when recommending exchanges, platforms, or tools. We strive to provide timely updates about everything crypto & blockchain, right from startups to industry majors.

Investment Disclaimer:All opinions and insights shared represent the author's own views on current market conditions. Please do your own research before making investment decisions. Neither the writer nor the publication assumes responsibility for your financial choices.

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On Monday morning, the market did that thing it always does when politics stops being background noise and starts grabbing the steering wheel.

Screens went red, chats filled with the same half-jokes about “macro,” and Bitcoin slipped back under the psychological levels traders had just spent the weekend defending. The headline risk had a familiar scent, tariffs, allies, a threat timed for maximum attention, and just enough ambiguity to keep leverage on edge.

This time the spark came from Greenland.

Over the weekend, President Donald Trump escalated his pressure campaign against European allies who oppose U.S. efforts to acquire the territory, floating a 10% tariff that would begin on February 1, with a threat to raise it further later this year.

By Monday, markets were no longer treating it as an offhand remark. U.S. futures slid, European indices fell, and the story mutated from geopolitical theatre into a real trade shock that could spill across risk assets.

For crypto traders, the mood shift felt personal. Plenty of desks still remember October, when tariff headlines helped trigger one of the nastiest liquidation cascades of the cycle, the kind that empties out leverage and leaves even good positions looking stupid for 48 hours.

That memory has been sitting quietly in the background, waiting for the next excuse.

Then the excuse arrived, with a letter.

In Davos, BBC’s coverage and wider reporting circulated that Trump sent a note to Norway’s prime minister linking Greenland to the Nobel Peace Prize, suggesting that, because he had not been awarded the prize, he could justify taking a harder posture.

The text of the message also moved through diplomatic channels, according to reporting attributed to multiple officials.

Dear Jonas: Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace, although it will always be predominant, but can now think about what is good and proper for the United States of America. Denmark cannot protect that land from Russia or China, and why do they have a “right of ownership” anyway? There are no written documents, it’s only that a boat landed there hundreds of years ago, but we had boats landing there, also. I have done more for NATO than any other person since its founding, and now, NATO should do something for the United States. The World is not secure unless we have Complete and Total Control of Greenland. Thank you! President DJT.

It sounded ridiculous, yet it landed with weight because officials verified it was real, and it gave markets something they hate: a narrative that can escalate without warning.

That is the part that matters.

The “tariff cycle” and the Greenland episodeBack in October, a post from The Kobeissi Letter laid out what it called an investor playbook for tariff episodes, a rinse-and-repeat sequence of cryptic threats, panic selling, weekend rhetoric, a Sunday night futures pop, and the slow crawl toward a deal that lets markets breathe again.

StepWhat happensWhat to watch for1Trump posts a cryptic tariff warning aimed at a country or sector, markets drift lowerVague language, no numbers yet, risk assets soften, crypto funding starts to cool2Trump announces a large tariff rate, markets sell off hard, weak positions get shaken outA specific percentage, immediate spike in volatility, liquidations increase3Dip buyers step in, a head-fake rally forms, then fresh lows appear, smart money starts buyingBounce on low conviction, then a second leg down with better bid support4After Friday’s close, Trump doubles down on tariffs to apply pressureWeekend escalation, posts or statements timed after market hours5On Saturday, the tariff target responds or commentsOfficial rebuttals, retaliation talk, counter-tariff hints6On Sunday, before futures open, Trump posts that he is working on a solution“Working on it,” “productive talks,” “deal possible,” softening language7Futures open sharply higher Sunday evening, then lose momentum into Monday’s openGap up at 6pm ET, fade into cash open, choppy risk-on attempt8After Monday’s open, Treasury Secretary Bessent appears on live TV and reassures investorsMedia hit from Treasury, tone and phrasing matter, reassurance vs justification9Over the next 2–4 weeks, administration officials tease a trade deal“Framework,” “constructive,” “ongoing talks,” leaks to friendly outlets10Trump announces a new trade deal, stocks hit a record highPhoto-op announcement, relief rally, risk assets re-rate higher11Cycle repeats from Step #1New target, new sector, same sequence of headlines and volatilityThe question today is simple, where are we in that loop now, and does the loop even hold up?

If you strip out the social media bravado and look at the shape of the week, Greenland fits the early part of the Kobeissi framework almost too cleanly.

Friday brought the initial threat, Trump saying he may hike tariffs on countries that refuse to “go along with” the Greenland push.

Over the weekend, the threat hardened into specifics, a 10% tariff beginning February 1, aimed at eight European countries, with a path to a higher rate later in the year if there is no deal.

The target countries pushed back, and the backlash became part of the trade story, not a side note.

In London, Prime Minister Keir Starmer warned that a trade war is in no one’s interest, and defended Greenland’s right, alongside Denmark, to determine its own future. Across Europe, officials discussed retaliation tools and how far they were willing to go if the tariffs moved from threat to policy.

Then, on Monday, the diplomatic curveball was delivered: the Nobel letter, which widened the story from a tariff spat into a question about intent and credibility.

At the same time, the market tape refused to play along with the neatest part of Kobeissi’s “playbook.”

The model assumes that by Sunday evening the White House tends to dangle a solution, and futures jump, only to fade into the Monday open. That pop is the pressure release valve.

We did not get that.

Instead, U.S. futures, and subsequently Bitcoin, sank into Monday on the tariff threat.

That’s why, if you’re forcing this Greenland episode into a numbered step, the cleanest answer is that we are still sitting in the “target responds” phase, the part of the cycle where allies push back, officials posture, and markets trade the uncertainty.

In other words, Step 5 energy.

There is a detail that complicates it further, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did appear on TV, which in Kobeissi’s sequence is the moment the administration reassures investors after the Monday open.

But the reporting around Bessent today is more about justification than reassurance, arguing that Europe is too weak to guarantee Greenland’s security. That kind of message extends the standoff, it does not calm it.

So yes, the “Treasury on TV” moment showed up, the calming function did not.

What crypto traders saw, and why it matteredBitcoin does not need a geopolitical reason to be volatile, it can do that on its own, but it reacts badly when the world shifts into risk-off mode and leverage is leaning the wrong way.

On Monday, Bitcoin slid to around $92,500 in early trading as the tariff threat hit sentiment. The move was a sharp, fast drop that took several thousand dollars off the price in a short window.

Whether you call it fear or positioning, what traders were really responding to was the feeling that the situation had no off-ramp yet.

That is why the October comparison keeps coming back. In October 2025, tariff headlines around China helped trigger a brutal unwind that traders still reference as the moment the market learned, again, how fragile leverage can be.

Today’s selling is smaller in magnitude, and the market structure is different, but the emotional pattern rhymes, traders see a headline that can expand, they remember what liquidation looks like, and they start trimming risk before someone else forces them to.

Does the thesis hold upKobeissi framed the tariff cycle as an “exact playbook.” Greenland is a stress test for that claim.

The thesis holds up as a way to describe how modern markets digest Trump's tariff drama, first the threat, then the panic, then the weekend amplification, then the scramble for a “solution” headline that lets positioning rebuild.

It breaks down when it pretends the de-escalation always arrives on time.

Greenland has not offered that clean de-escalation beat yet, mainly because the subject matter is a country's sovereignty rather than pure macroeconomics.

Instead, the narrative escalated into a diplomatic letter that European leaders are taking seriously, and the administration’s messaging, including via Bessent, has leaned hard into justification.

That matters because markets trade the path, not the punchline. A playbook built around a predictable Sunday-night relief rally depends on someone choosing relief.

Right now, the pressure is the point.

The label for this moment, and the two triggers to watchThe cleanest label for Monday is simple.

Escalation without the Sunday off ramp.

If the cycle is going to snap back into something familiar, the off-ramp has to appear after the fact, because the Sunday futures moment has already come and gone, and it came in the wrong direction. futures

From here, two things matter.

A credible de-escalation signal in the next few days, something specific, not vibes, not “we’re thinking about it,” a real line about talks, delays, scope changes, or conditions that soften the February 1 path. Markets can live with conflict, they struggle with open-ended timelines.The tape has to confirm that the panic has peaked. That looks like a reversal that holds through the U.S. cash session, with risk assets stabilising instead of whipsawing, and crypto cooling off without another forced unwind. You do not need a rally to know leverage is clearing, you need price action that stops behaving like it is one headline away from breaking.If we do get the classic “Sunday night relief” move, it will not be the one we just missed, it will be the next one, the next weekend where a solution headline arrives before futures open and gives traders permission to reprice the risk.

Until then, we are in the phase where headlines do the damage, and the market spends the rest of the day trying to work out whether the damage is temporary.

For anyone who lived through October’s liquidation shock, that decision never feels abstract. It feels like a finger hovering over the close button, and a timeline that might change with one post, one interview, or one letter that sounds like parody and arrives as policy. letter

Mentioned in this article

BNB price is weakening after rejecting the value area high, shifting structure bearish, and increasing the probability of a rotation lower toward the Point of Control and value area low near $800–$840.

Summary

BNB rejected from value area high (VAH), confirming supply overhead Structure weakened as the high-low projection broke down Auction rotation targets POC + VAL + 0.618 Fib near $800–$840 BNB (BNB) price is starting to show clearer signs of weakness after failing to sustain higher prices at the value area high (VAH).

The recent move higher initially appeared impulsive, but rejection from VAH has disrupted the high-low projection and shifted short-term momentum toward a corrective phase.

This type of rejection often signals that buyers are losing control at premium prices, allowing sellers to regain influence over price direction.

From a Market Auction Theory perspective, BNB is beginning to reflect the conditions of a full range rotation. When the price fails to hold above the VAH, the market often rotates back toward fair value, typically defined by the Point of Control (POC), then toward the value area low (VAL).

With the structure now weakening and the price failing to reclaim VAH on a closing basis, downside continuation toward the $800–$840 region is becoming the more probable scenario.

BNB price key technical points BNB rejected from the value area high, confirming premium supply The rejection broke the recent bullish high-low projection, shifting structure weaker Market Auction Theory favors rotation toward POC + VAL near $800–$840 BNBUSDT (4H) Chart, Source: TradingView The value area high represents the upper boundary of accepted value within a trading range. When price trades into this zone, it often encounters selling pressure, especially if demand is not strong enough to sustain acceptance above resistance. In BNB’s case, VAH rejection suggests that market participants were unable to push price into higher value, signaling the presence of supply at premium pricing.

Technically, this matters because VAH rejections commonly mark local tops in range conditions. A market that is truly trending higher would typically reclaim VAH and hold above it with strong continuation volume. Instead, BNB failed to sustain the breakout attempt, confirming that upside continuation is weakening.

Once VAH is rejected, the market tends to rotate back toward balance. That process often begins with price moving back toward the Point of Control, where fair value is established.

Market Auction Theory: Rotation from VAH to VAL becomes the target Market Auction Theory explains price movement as a continuous auction between buyers and sellers. When price reaches a premium area like VAH and fails to attract sufficient demand, the auction typically shifts lower in search of liquidity and value.

This is what appears to be developing in BNB. The failure to sustain above VAH signals that demand is not strong at higher price points. As a result, the market is likely to rotate lower and test the levels where buyers are more willing to transact.

A full rotation often moves through the following phases:

Rejection at VAH (premium zone) Rotation toward the POC (fair value) Continuation toward VAL (discount zone) This is the expected sequence when the market rejects the upper boundary and fails to sustain acceptance at premium pricing.

$800–$840 comes into focus as the key downside region If the rotation continues, the next major area of interest sits around $800–$840, where multiple technical levels converge. This region includes the Point of Control, the value area low, and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. When multiple support factors align, the level becomes a high-probability reaction zone.

This downside target zone is important because it represents discounted pricing within the range, which is where buyers often step in to defend structure and stabilize price. If BNB rotates into this region, the market will likely attempt to pause and rebalance, especially if volume begins to increase.

However, the key factor is how BNB behaves once it enters that zone. A strong reaction and rebound would suggest that the market is still range-bound and finding support at fair value. A breakdown below VAL would signal further bearish continuation and open the door for deeper downside.

What to expect in the coming price action BNB is showing increasing bearish pressure after rejecting from the value area high and losing its bullish high-low structure. As long as price remains below VAH on a closing basis, Market Auction Theory favors a continued rotation lower toward fair value zones.

The next major downside focus remains the $800–$840 region, where the Point of Control, value area low, and 0.618 Fibonacci level form key structural support. A rotation into this zone would confirm that BNB is completing the auction move from premium value into discounted value.