Market Signal Briefing

Cardano (ADA) has reclaimed its spot among the top ten largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.

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Bulls are not strong enough to seize the initiative as the prices of most of the coins keep trading in the red zone, according to CoinStats.

XRP chart by CoinStatsXRP/USDThe rate of XRP has declined by 2.24% over the last day.

Image by TradingViewOn the hourly chart, the price of XRP has made a false breakout of the local support at $1.5428. If the daily bar closes far from that mark, traders can expect an ongoing upward move to the $1.60 range.

Image by TradingViewOn the longer time frame, the rate of XRP has not bounced back after a false breakout of the $1.5307 level. If the candle closes near that mark or below it, the accumulated energy might be enough for a further drop to the $1.50 zone.

Image by TradingViewFrom the midterm point of view, there are no reversal signals yet.

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If the weekly bar closes below the interim level of $1.50, traders may witness a test of the $1.30-$1.40 area by the end of the month.

XRP is trading at $1.55 at press time.

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Posted: February 4, 2026

Bitcoin’s [BTC] price action continues to reflect sustained weakness. Late Tuesday, the asset fell to a session low of $72,945 as selling pressure intensified across the market.

The move followed a clear shift in trader behavior. Whales scaled back their bullish bets, while retail traders largely held their ground, maintaining elevated optimism.

AMBCrypto assesses which side may be better positioned and outlines the conditions that could shape a potential Bitcoin reset.

Whales pull back as retail presses on Recent data points to a changing dynamic in Bitcoin’s Perpetual Futures market, highlighting a widening gap between whale and retail trader behavior.

Whales—typically addresses with deep liquidity—tend to trade with greater flexibility than retail participants, who often rely on shorter time frames and more limited capital.

According to Whales vs. Retail data, whales reduced their long exposure over the past day, closing existing positions while opening new shorts.

Source: CryptoQuant

João Wedson, founder of Alphractal, described the shift as part of whales’ opportunistic trading approach.

“They hunt volatility, open longs and shorts aggressively, and later reduce exposure,” Wedson said.

Such repositioning often precedes one of two outcomes.

Bitcoin may enter a consolidation phase before committing to a clearer direction, or selling pressure could accelerate, dragging prices below the lower $70,000 range—similar to Tuesday’s move.

Historically, comparable whale-driven unwinds have preceded sharp declines. In a previous instance, Bitcoin experienced a steep drop that ultimately carried the price toward the $80,000 region at the time.

For now, however, derivatives data suggests longs still retain marginal control.

Bitcoin’s Funding Rate—used to determine whether long or short traders are paying to hold positions—remains slightly positive at roughly 0.0040%, according to CoinGlass.

Bearish pressure remains intact Despite the positive Funding Rate, bearish forces remain active. A renewed push from sellers could set the stage for a bull trap, exposing late long positions to abrupt reversals.

Trading volume trends in Bitcoin’s perpetual market show a growing dominance of short volume over longs.

This shift indicates that cumulative activity continues to favor short contracts, with taker sell orders maintaining a strong presence.

Beyond derivatives, spot market indicators paint a less supportive picture.

The Coinbase Premium Index—which compares Bitcoin prices on Coinbase and Binance to gauge U.S.-based demand—signals a clear deterioration in buying interest.

Source: CryptoQuant

The index has trended lower over the past day, pointing to weakening demand from U.S. investors, even as long exposure in derivatives markets improves.

A similar signal emerges from the Fund Market Premium, which tracks the price difference between crypto investment products such as ETFs, trusts, and funds relative to spot Bitcoin.

The metric has slipped into negative territory, printing around -0.2. This suggests subdued institutional demand and reinforces the broader risk-off tone across the market.

Collapsing volume weighs on the outlook Across the wider market, spot trading activity has declined sharply. Data indicates that hundreds of billions of dollars in volume have exited the market since October 2025, reflecting sustained caution among participants.

Demand that might otherwise support price stability has faded, as fewer spot investors remain active and available capital continues to thin.

The recent $10 billion contraction in stablecoin market capitalization has further deepened this demand shortfall.

Reduced stablecoin liquidity signals investor reluctance to deploy capital into digital assets. Given Bitcoin’s tendency to absorb returning liquidity first, this contraction could significantly influence its near-term price behavior.

Until spot demand and trading volume recover meaningfully, Bitcoin may struggle to deliver sustained gains capable of supporting a stronger upside trajectory.

Final Thoughts Whales are cutting back long exposure at a time when retail participation continues to rise, a divergence that could have material consequences for price direction. Retail investor positioning remains notably optimistic, even as broader market indicators point to declining U.S. participation and a pullback in overall trading volume.

Bitcoin traders predicted that 200-week moving average trendlines would produce a long-term BTC price bottom in the event of another dip.

Bitcoin (BTC) traders see its ultimate support trendline coming into play as part of a new macro BTC price bottom.

Key points:

Bitcoin is nearing a long-term trendline retest for the first time since late 2023.

Weekly moving averages are on the radar as a BTC price safety net should the market fall again.

Market outlooks place emphasis on trader resilience despite a 40% drawdown.

BTC 200-week trend line “should be the bottom”The latest analysis increasingly expects Bitcoin to test its 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $68,400.

After four straight red monthly candles, BTC price is fielding fresh downside targets, which include sub-$50,000 levels.

Despite dropping to its lowest levels since late 2024 this week, BTC/USD may be rescued by classic support trend lines in the end.

“We're currently trading at Strategy's cost basis & are close [to] the April lows at $74.4k. If we break below, the next key level is $70k which is just above the previous ATH of $69k,” Nic Puckrin, CEO of crypto education resource Coin Bureau, wrote in an X post Wednesday.

“Breaking below that means we head to a bear market low target. The area to watch here $55.7k - $58.2k. That's just between the average realised price of all coins & the 200w MA. That should be the bottom.” BTC/USD one-week chart with 50, 100, 200SMA. Source: Nic Puckrin/X
Puckrin referenced the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), which forms a $10,000-wide support band with the EMA equivalent, data from TradingView shows.

BTC/USD one-week chart with 200SMA, 200EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Trader Altcoin Sherpa, meanwhile, said that it would “make sense” for the price to drop to at least the 200-week EMA.

on 1 hand it makes sense for $BTC to tap the 200W EMA, an indicator that hasn't been touched since 2023. This would be around 68k.

On the other, this is still an interesting level as the 2025 low.

Either way, the bottom is closer than we think imo pic.twitter.com/93DO4s4qlu

— Altcoin Sherpa (@AltcoinSherpa) February 4, 2026 “Every time Bitcoin has lost 100W EMA, it has retested the 200W EMA,” trader BitBull continued on the topic. 

“Right now, 200W EMA is at $68,000 and this will most likely be retested. Once the retest happens, you could start accumulating for the long-term.” BTC/USD one-week chart with 100, 200EMA. Source: BitBull/X
Bitcoin investors resist full capitulationOther market synopses are also offering hope to panicking BTC investors.

Fresh analysis released Tuesday by Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of crypto asset manager Bitwise, predicted that the current “crypto winter” would soon be over.

“Retail crypto has been in a brutal winter since January 2025. Institutions just papered over that truth for certain assets for a while,” he argued, noting that the average “winter” lasted around 14 months.

Cointelegraph further reported on strong conviction among Bitcoin derivatives traders after enduring a drawdown of more than 40%.

The US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen net outflows of $3.2 billion since mid-January — just 3% of their total assets under management.

Bitcoin US spot ETF balances. Source: GlassnodeThis article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

Uniswap (UNI) was also among the underperformers, declining 3.6% from Tuesday.

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➡️ Aave has retired the Avara brand and shuttered the Family Wallet to refocus on its core lending protocol and Lens ecosystem. ➡️ The market trend is shifting away from generalist “super-apps” toward specialized platforms that solve specific industry pain points. ➡️ SUBBD Token is capitalizing on this shift by using AI and Web3 to disrupt the high-fee structures of the $85B creator economy. ➡️ Early data shows strong demand for SUBBD’s model, with over $4.5 million raised during its presale phase. The ‘crypto super-app’ dream took a hit this week. Aave, one of decentralized finance’s largest lending protocols, announced a strategic retreat from its consumer-facing wallet ambitions.

Stani Kulechov, Aave’s founder, confirmed the organization is retiring the ‘Avara’ parent brand and shutting down the Family Wallet, a product acquired just last year to bridge the gap between DeFi and everyday users.

It’s a sharp pivot back to basics. For the past two years, the narrative was all about expansion—building social graphs (Lens Protocol), stablecoins (GHO), and wallets under one massive umbrella. But that era appears over.

The reversal suggests the market frankly no longer rewards broad, open-ended ecosystems that lack immediate stickiness. Instead, liquidity is flowing toward purpose-built protocols that solve specific, high-friction problems rather than general utility.

This restructuring comes as the broader crypto market hunts for the next major narrative beyond simple asset speculation. While infrastructure giants like Aave consolidate to defend their moats, capital is rotating into sectors offering tangible utility for non-crypto natives.

Specifically, the intersection of AI and the creator economy is seeing aggressive growth. It’s within this vacuum of consumer utility that projects like SUBBD Token ($SUBBD) are finding traction, using the exact kind of specialized focus that the ‘Family’ wallet missed.

Buy your $SUBBD here.

AI Tools Replace Generic Interfaces The failure of the Family Wallet highlights a brutal truth in crypto: users don’t need another place to store private keys; they need a reason to use them.

While Aave retreats to infrastructure, SUBBD Token ($SUBBD) is capitalizing on the $85 billion content creation industry by attacking the inefficiencies of Web2 incumbents. The current landscape for creators is defined by exploitation, platforms routinely extract up to 70% of earnings in fees, while arbitrary bans restrict audience reach.

SUBBD addresses this not by building a generic wallet, but by deploying an EVM-compatible ecosystem designed specifically for creator sovereignty. By merging Web3 payments with proprietary AI models, the platform offers tools that were previously fragmented across a dozen subscriptions.

Features like the AI Personal Assistant allow creators to automate interactions, while AI Voice Cloning and AI Influencer Creation open new revenue streams that don’t require the creator to be physically present 24/7.

This utility-first approach differs fundamentally from the strategy Aave just abandoned. Where Avara attempted to capture users through a generalist interface, SUBBD captures them through essential service provision. The platform’s decentralized architecture ensures creators maintain ownership of their content and earnings, removing the middleman risk that plagues platforms like OnlyFans or Patreon.

For the market, this represents a shift from ‘crypto as a wallet’ to ‘crypto as a business backend.’

Check out the SUBBD ecosystem.

SUBBD Presale Draws Capital Seeking Utility The market’s appetite for this specific utility is quantifiable. While legacy DeFi tokens struggle with governance restructuring, SUBBD Token has maintained steady inflows during its presale phase.

According to current data, the project has successfully raised $1.4M, signaling strong confidence from early adopters who view the convergence of AI and content monetization as the next logical step for retail crypto adoption.

Investors are currently entering at a price point of $0.05749, positioning themselves before the platform’s full public rollout. Beyond the speculative aspect, the protocol’s staking mechanics are designed to encourage long-term ecosystem stability.

The project offers a fixed 20% APY for the first year to participants who lock their tokens. This incentive structure does two things: it reduces circulating supply volatility during the critical early growth phase, and it aligns incentives between the platform’s developers and its community.

Smart money monitors these metrics closely because they suggest a departure from ‘vaporware.’ The token serves a dual purpose: governance rights over platform features, such as voting on AI creator curation, and utility within the ecosystem for tipping, subscriptions, and accessing token-gated content.

As Aave refocuses on the backend of DeFi, projects like SUBBD are building the front-end utility that actually drives mass adoption.

You can buy $SUBBD here.

The content provided in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry inherent risks, including high volatility and potential loss of capital. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing.

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Despite the brief pause in the prolonged crypto market downturn seen early yesterday, Dogecoin (DOGE) has resumed its price correction, and this negative market condition has extended to its derivatives market.

As of Wednesday, Feb. 4, data from CoinGlass shows that the largest meme asset by market capitalization, Dogecoin, has seen its futures open interest decline by 8.7% over the past day.

Dogecoin futures traders withdraw their positionsThe massive decline in Dogecoin open interest shows that futures traders are increasingly withdrawing their positions amid the growing uncertainties seen across the broad crypto market.

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Nonetheless, the data further shows that the total number of active futures contracts involving Dogecoin that have not been settled has dropped significantly to 10.84 billion DOGE worth about $1.16 billion.

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With this massive decrease in the number of DOGE tokens committed over the last day coinciding with a massive increase of over 43% in its trading volume, it appears that Dogecoin traders are not entirely dormant, but they are actively repositioning in major attempts to close leveraged positions rather than open new ones.

Furthermore, the broad market sell-off has seen Dogecoin decline notably in its price, retesting its multimonth low of $0.10. As such, the declining open interest metric shows that Dogecoin traders are being cautious amid the heavy price pull back.

Dogecoin options open interest rises 6%While the Dogecoin overall open interest volume has plunged significantly amid prolonged crypto market volatility, its options open interest has moved in the opposite direction during the same period.

The data shows that options open interest has surged by nearly 6%; meanwhile, the options volume has plunged massively by 52.69%. This signals a mix of resilience and caution as it appears that traders across all exchanges, including Binance, may be holding firm to existing hedges but are reluctant to open new positions amid the looming uncertainties.

Pi Coin has remained on crypto investors’ radar since March 14, 2019 (Pi Day), drawing both support and criticism due to its unconventional mining setup and gradual mainnet launch. Now that the project is hitting another important stage, attention is ramping up again.

Table of Contents

Current market scenarioNetwork updates and supply dynamicsTechnical outlook and downside risksPotential recovery scenariosPi Coin price prediction based on current levelsFinal thoughts This Pi Coin price prediction reviews the latest developments and how they might shape price movement in the near term.

Summary

Pi Coin is trading around $0.16 as of February 4, down 9% for the week, with price largely stuck in a tight range due to short-term trading and long-term uncertainty. Recent updates have unblocked 2.5 million users in KYC and mainnet migration, while 700,000+ users can now submit KYC applications, adding supply pressure to the market. Pi Coin’s price is expected to stay in the $0.14–$0.18 range short-term, with significant upside dependent on real ecosystem growth rather than technical momentum. Current market scenario Pi Coin (PI) sits around $0.16 as of February 4, down 9% for the week and 1.3% in the last 24 hours.

PI 1-day chart, February 2026 | Source: crypto.news Pi Coin price has been stuck in a tight range, reflecting both short-term trading and longer-term uncertainty. Its moves seem more about what’s happening within the project than the wider crypto market.

Network updates and supply dynamics At the end of January, the Pi Network team finally addressed a big user pain point. Roughly 2.5 million users who were blocked during KYC or mainnet migration due to tighter compliance checks should now be able to move forward. Since the issues vary by region, fixes are being rolled out gradually.

The update also allows 700,000+ users to submit KYC applications for the first time. While this is a big step forward, migration will continue in batches, meaning progress may still feel slow.

Meanwhile, supply pressure is mounting. Millions of PI tokens are unlocking daily over the next month, including a 24 million token release on February 13, which continues to shape the broader Pi Coin forecast.

Technical outlook and downside risks PI is at a key $0.15–$0.16 level. A push from buyers could spark a bounce, especially with upcoming token unlocks. Clearing $0.18 might take price up to $0.20, but it’d probably be just a temporary lift rather than a trend change.

If $0.15 breaks, the price could fall to $0.145–$0.14, keeping bears in charge and fueling doubts about the project’s utility.

Potential recovery scenarios Even with ongoing pressure, incremental KYC and mainnet migration improvements could help confidence grow over time.

Successfully onboarding millions of users could set a foundation for future apps and token activity.

However, without noticeable growth in the ecosystem, any bounce in Pi Coin price will probably be fragile.

Pi Coin price prediction based on current levels Over the next little while, PI will probably stay trapped between $0.14 and $0.18, with bigger moves happening around unlock dates. To push past $0.20, the network would need more than bullish charts — it needs real growth in the ecosystem.

Final thoughts Looking at the Pi Coin outlook, things feel a bit stuck in neutral. Major problems have been addressed, but the growing supply and limited ecosystem activity are holding Pi Coin back. As a result, the Pi Coin price prediction remains cautious, with sideways action expected until fundamentals improve.

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Large Bitcoin (BTC) holders are up to something good amid the ongoing price dip. Despite Bitcoin’s 42% drop from its all-time high of $126,000, whales are increasing their accumulation of the coin. As highlighted by Bitfinex, a leading digital trading platform, the number of addresses with over 1,000 BTC has spiked.

Whale wallets expand despite Bitcoin’s market declineNotably, the Bitcoin large-holder asset chart indicates that the number of addresses holding over 1,000 BTC rose to 2,047. This signals that more wallets now hold at least 1,000 BTC each, worth millions of dollars per wallet.

It is a clear indication that these whales are buying the dip and holding more Bitcoin in their portfolio. This increased accumulation at a time when Bitcoin is nosediving suggests that BTC whales are anticipating a rebound in price.

These large investors, instead of dumping the asset, have decided to buy up whatever retail investors are selling. It is likely that if these whales continue to accumulate, Bitcoin could stop further declines on the crypto market.

BTC hit a new yearly low at $73,060 yesterday, representing a 42% drawdown from ATH.

Whale accumulation continues as the number of addresses holding +1,000 BTC rose to 2,047.

If this accumulation pattern persists we expect a new price range around current levels. pic.twitter.com/hROWPD9Og0

— Bitfinex (@bitfinex) February 4, 2026 Within the last 24 hours, Bitcoin crashed from a daily peak of $78,376.51 to an intraday low of $72,897.14. As of this writing, Bitcoin exchanges hands at $75,977.92, which represents a 2.64% decline within the time frame.

However, trading volume has climbed by 26.8% to $68.02 billion, indicating the ongoing accumulation. With weak hands exiting the market and whales mopping up after them, the current development could prove significant to the leading digital asset.

This $75,000 price range might serve as a new support base for future upward movement. It could also serve as a sell-off trigger during a market correction.

If the current whale accumulation succeeds in stabilizing prices, Bitcoin would need to reclaim the $85,500 level before it reignites confidence of further upside.

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Bitcoin is currently in a zone that contains most of the asset’s market liquidity. The coin’s ability to resist a massive sell-off in line with the current whale accumulation might prove pivotal to its recovery journey. Bitcoin might persist until the coin reclaims the $80,000 level.

Amid the volatility, Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor has dropped two critical rules that should guide holders of the coin. According to Saylor, the first rule is to "buy Bitcoin," and the second is "don’t sell the Bitcoin."

These rules seem to align with the action of whales holding over 1,000 BTC as they steadily increase their accumulation of the asset. It would appear that a section of the market is listening to Saylor.

Crypto ETF flows diverged sharply as bitcoin products faced heavy redemptions, while ether, XRP, and solana managed to attract fresh capital. The split highlighted selective risk-taking as February's early momentum cooled.

SOL price is attempting to stabilize after a prolonged selloff, trading at $94.16 when writing, as short-term technical indicators begin to suggest seller exhaustion. A TD Sequential “9” buy signal on the 4-hour chart, combined with a bullish RSI divergence, has shifted focus toward whether current support can hold.

TD Sequential Buy Signal Flags Potential Selling ExhaustionFrom a technical perspective, the Solana price chart has printed a TD Sequential “9” buy signal on the 4-hour timeframe. This is signaling that downside momentum may be stretched. While it does not guarantee a reversal, historically it often precedes short-term stabilization phases.

Meanwhile, price action has respected the $93–$94 zone during recent sessions, suggesting that sellers may be losing control. Still, confirmation requires sustained holding above this area rather than a brief reaction.

Bullish RSI Divergence Reinforces Short-Term SupportAt the same time, momentum indicators are beginning to diverge from price. While SOL price briefly dipped to $93, the Relative Strength Index formed a higher low. This bullish RSI divergence implies weakening downside pressure even as price printed a marginally lower low.

Such divergences often emerge near inflection points, particularly after extended declines. That said, they tend to work best when paired with structural support levels, which currently places added significance on the $94 region for SOL price today.

Key Levels Define Near-Term Risk and RewardFrom a structural standpoint, $94.16 now acts as a critical support reference. If this level continues to hold on closing bases, attention shifts toward the monthly open near $105, which represents a potential recovery target of roughly 9.4% based on recent Solana price chart behavior.

Still, the path higher is unlikely to be linear. Any failure to defend current levels would delay this scenario and reintroduce lower liquidity zones. For now, the chart suggests that the immediate risk-reward profile has become more balanced than earlier in the decline.

On-Chain Activity Signals Underlying Network StrengthBeyond price, Solana crypto fundamentals present a more constructive backdrop. Development activity has been trending higher, while daily active addresses continue to rise, too. This combination suggests that network usage is expanding even as market sentiment remains cautious.

Historically, divergences between improving on-chain engagement and soft price action often precede trend transitions, although timing remains uncertain. Still, it reduces the likelihood of purely speculative price behavior dominating short-term moves.

Volume Cooling Adds Context to Momentum ShiftAdditionally, CryptoQuant data shows a noticeable cooling in trading volume. Rather than indicating disinterest, declining volume during downtrends often reflects the exhaustion of aggressive sellers. In prior cycles, similar volume compression has aligned with base-building phases.

As a result, SOL price is now balancing between technical exhaustion signals and broader market restraint. Whether this develops into a sustained recovery or extended consolidation will depend on how price reacts around current support over coming sessions.

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Bitcoin's continued sell-off is reviving concerns that the market may be slipping back into a familiar four-year cycle pattern.

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One of the most notable divergences in the current cryptocurrency market is seen on Shiba Inu, where price action is still trying to break free from a wider downtrend, despite massive activity growth in derivatives and spot flows. Will price eventually follow liquidity or is this merely short-term speculation? That is the key question raised by the recent spike in futures and spot inflows, which was shown on the futures market and surge by 7,021.14% (increase in net flow over the hourly time frame).

SHIB's market recoverySHIB's chart still shows a market recovering from strong selling pressure, despite impressive flow numbers. The asset is still in a long-term downward trend, struggling to make higher lows that can be sustained, and trading below important moving averages. The most recent leg down pushed SHIB near multimonth support zones, and while recent candles indicate attempts at stabilization, momentum is still precarious.

SHIB/USDT Chart by TradingViewOn the other hand, flow data presents a more dynamic image. A number of intervals show aggressive inflows, particularly in the one- and four-hour windows, according to short-term metrics. The fact that traders and speculators are returning suggests that they may be trying to catch a local bottom or setting up for a rebound. When traders use short-covering or bounce plays to predict volatility, futures activity frequently increases.

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Do inflows matter? Inflows by themselves, however, do not ensure recovery. Some of these flows may not be the result of long-term accumulation but rather of leveraged positioning. Leveraged long positions could rapidly unwind and produce another round of downside pressure if the price is unable to recover adjacent resistance zones.

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Instead of an instant recovery, investors should now expect increased volatility. For SHIB to demonstrate that inflows are converting into actual buying interest, rather than speculative activity, it must recover short-term moving averages and maintain above recent support.

In the short term, traders should keep an eye on whether volume keeps increasing while prices stabilize. SHIB may establish a recovery structure if inflows continue and sell pressure lessens. If not, the asset runs the risk of staying stuck in a gradual decline, even in the face of spikes in activity. Liquidity has temporarily increased, but price confirmation is still lacking.

“Big Short” investor Michael Burry warned that Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has been exposed as purely speculative with “no organic use case reason to slow or stop its descent,” as BTC wiped out all post-election gains. Burry's Cascade Warning Burry argued on Monday that Bitcoin failed to establish itself as a debasement hedge similar to precious metals, contradicting the argument that its fixed supply makes it comparable to gold.

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XRP saw a significant surge in futures volume on major derivatives crypto exchange Bitmex as the crypto market saw volatility in the last 24 hours.

According to CoinGlass data, XRP futures volume rose 5,419% on Bitmex in the last 24 hours to $82.27 million.

The surge in derivatives activity follows as the broader crypto market faces a sell-off, with the XRP price in red. At press time, XRP was down 0.78% in the last 24 hours to $1.59 and down 17.08% weekly.

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The number of outstanding contracts are down for most cryptocurrencies, including XRP, according to data from CoinGlass. XRP's open interest has dropped 3.93% in the last 24 hours to $2.66 billion.

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In XRP news, the permissioned domain amendment, a major building block for institutional adoption, allowing the creation of compliant zones, has just been activated on the XRP Ledger mainnet.

$467.6 billion exits marketLosses increased this week across the crypto market as the release of crucial U.S. economic data was delayed due to a partial government shutdown. Investors have continued to rotate out of risk-on assets, prompting significant declines for major cryptocurrencies, especially on a weekly basis.

Adding to investors' concerns is ongoing uncertainty around lawmakers’ efforts to create legislative guardrails for the cryptocurrency industry, as well as the liquidation overhang on the crypto market.

Almost half a trillion dollars has been wiped off cryptocurrencies in less than a week as the market sell-off deepened.

Total crypto market value has dropped by $467.6 billion since Jan. 29, according to CoinGecko data. Over $704 million in bullish and bearish crypto bets have been liquidated on the futures market over the last 24 hours, bringing total liquidations to over $6.67 billion since Jan. 29, according to CoinGlass data.

Cryptocurrencies have faced persistent downward pressure since the October sell-off that wiped out $19 billion in leveraged token bets, from which the broader market has yet to recover.

Solana tokens reached a 12-month peak in January, with a total of 1.3M new launches. Most of the expansion came from a new wave of memes. 

Solana tokens remained a staple of activity, with new launches picking up again in January. On peak days, over 63,000 new tokens were created, driven by the meme trenches. 

The rush to create more tokens happened despite the overall market slowdown. Token creation also boosted DEX trading, as well as fee generation for launchpads and exchanges. 

Solana token launches recovered in January, with over 1.3M new assets created. | Source: Solscan Despite the market slowdown and loss of trust in altcoins, Solana remains a venue of liquidity, allowing for short-term trading and significant expansion for some of the tokens. 

Small holders are the most relentless Solana traders While the BTC and ETH market is dominated by whales and whale-sized orders, Solana attracts small holders. The current meme season is much less active in terms of trading volumes, mostly due to the fact that few tokens reach outsized valuations. 

Most of the newly launched and traded assets rarely pass a $30М valuation. There are also fewer attempts to create cults or long-term holder projects. 

January’s spike in activity was mostly driven by small-scale traders, with a moderate inflow of medium-sized wallets. Whales were the least influential cohort in the trenches. 

Over time, small holders also retained their levels of Solana token holdings, while medium and whale-sized traders divested their portfolios. 

In January, small-scale traders returned to Solana, but only a few whales joined the meme token trenches. | Source: Dune Analytics More than 135K small-scale wallets hold Solana memes, while only around 35K medium-sized wallets retain a meme portfolio. Whales are even more rare, with only 2,066 large-scale wallets. Those holders may be teams or buyers from previous meme cycles. The overall valuation of Solana memes declined to $4.7B, boosted by legacy memes like TRUMP, BONK, and PENGU. 

Day-to-day activity, however, hinges on the latest hot token, with daily runners gaining over 100%. Those tokens may be short-lived or go through boom and bust cycles, but traders try to avoid the long-term decline from holding. 

Pump.fun activity picked up in January Pump.fun continued to expand its activity, concluding a strong month in January. The app was back in the top 5 of fee producers, with $107.5M for January, the highest fee level since September 2025. 

Graduating tokens also rose in the past four weeks, to over 280 daily on average. Token graduations signaled more attempts to create longer-lived assets, rather than crashing the token during the initial launchpad trading stage.

Despite the higher activity, SOL remained weak. The asset dipped under $100 and continued to slide, recently retreating to $95.22. Briefly, SOL broke below $95 for the first time since February 2024.

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Ark Invest bought Coinbase, Block, Bullish, Circle and Bitmine as Bitcoin and Ether traded below key moving averages, with sentiment weak but long‑term theses intact.

Summary

Ark Invest accumulated shares of Bitmine, crypto exchange Bullish, Circle, Block Inc. and Coinbase as their prices slid with the broader digital asset market.​ The buying coincided with Bitcoin and Ether trading below their 200‑day moving averages and long‑term trend lines, while sentiment gauges flashed heightened caution. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan described an extended bear phase since early 2025, while Cathie Wood highlighted gold’s rally and disinflation data as potential signals for Bitcoin’s next leg.​ Ark Invest has purchased shares of multiple cryptocurrency-focused companies as digital asset markets continue to decline, according to trading data.

The investment firm bought shares in Ethereum treasury company Bitmine on Tuesday, along with positions in crypto exchange Bullish and stablecoin issuer Circle, according to the firm’s trading disclosures. Ark Invest also acquired shares of Block Inc. and Coinbase during the same period.

The purchases occurred as the stocks traded lower on the day, according to market data. The buying activity comes as major cryptocurrencies trade below recent price peaks.

Ark Invest doubles down on Bitcoin Bitcoin (BTC) remained below its 200-day simple moving average in the previous trading session, according to technical indicators. The cryptocurrency has also fallen below the 100-week moving average, a level historically associated with significant price pullbacks. The Fear and Greed Index, a sentiment measure for cryptocurrency markets, indicated elevated caution among market participants.

Ether similarly traded below its 200-day simple moving average and remained well below its all-time high, according to price data.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, characterized Bitcoin as experiencing an extended bear market since early 2025, attributing the decline to high leverage and profit-taking, according to published comments.

Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, stated that gold’s recent price rally could signal a potential future advance for Bitcoin, noting that gold has preceded major Bitcoin gains in previous market cycles despite low long-term correlation between the assets.

Data from Truflation indicated that inflation metrics could turn negative, with consumer price inflation measuring below recent historical levels, according to the firm’s analysis.

XRP is showing signs of a potential bullish turnaround after recently hitting a Golden Pocket. Analysts say this Golden Pocket could trigger a strong relief bounce in the XRP price, potentially propelling it toward $2.50. At the same time, they predict that a price drop to new lows remains possible if the market does not unfold as expected.  

In an X post on Monday, crypto market analyst CasiTrades announced that XRP has hit a Golden Pocket, bringing attention to an upcoming W4 relief bounce that could fuel a rally to $2.5. Sharing a detailed Elliot Wave chart, she noted that XRP experienced an expected flush into the Golden Pocket around the 0.618 Fibonacci level near $1.93. At the same time, the cryptocurrency aligned well with the 1.618 Extension for Wave 3, which CasiTrades describes as a textbook move. 

XRP Golden Pocket Signals Rally To $2.5 According to the analyst, this sets the stage for a full Wave 4 relief to begin. She pointed out that the first resistance to watch is the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement level at $1.78, which also coincides with a previous support breakdown and could serve as a backtest of resistance. 

Related Reading: XRP To $11, And Then $70: The Next Impulse Wave To Watch Out For

CasiTrades noted that XRP experienced a very shallow Wave 2, only retracing to the 0.382 Fibonacci level in the Elliott Wave chart structure. She explained that modest Wave 2 corrections often signal a deeper Wave 4 retracement, indicating the XRP price could experience a stronger pullback during the next corrective phase before potentially resuming its upward trend. 

Source: Chart from CasiTrades on X Based on this pattern, the analyst stated that Wave 4 could push XRP higher, potentially reaching the $1.93 level from its current price of around $1.60. She added that the cryptocurrency could climb further to $2.03, which corresponds to the macro 0.5 retracement level. CasiTrades emphasized that XRP would need to reclaim the $2.03 level and hold it as support before a sustained upward move could begin. This highlights $2.03 as a key turning point that could trigger XRP’s next breakout phase above $2.50. 

The analyst further explained that holding $2.03 as support would eliminate the need for another corrective wave down toward $1.55 or lower. She added that maintaining this level could also prevent  Wave 5 from failing. 

What Happens If Support Fails In her Elliott Wave analysis, CasiTrades admitted that “nothing is confirmed yet,” keeping her bullish outlook for XRP speculative. She noted that XRP’s recent drop to new lows created a Bullish Divergence, but the market could still revisit lows.

CasiTrades said that XRP’s bullish scenario will only be confirmed once it breaks through the key resistance level. The accompanying chart highlights the potential downside of support failing, projecting a roughly 8% decline from $1.60 to $1.47.  

XRP trading at $1.60 on the 1D chart | Source: XRPUSDT on Tradingview.com Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Latin American digital asset platform Mercado Bitcoin said that it had deployed more than $20 million of tokenized private credit on Bitcoin sidechain Rootstock, deepening its push into real-world assets (RWAs) and targeting $100 million in issuances by April. 

According to a release shared with Cointelegraph, several offerings had already reached target capacity since going live.

The move adds Rootstock to Mercado Bitcoin’s multichain tokenization strategy, which includes planned RWA issuances on Stellar (XLM) and the XRP Ledger, giving international investors Bitcoin‑secured exposure to Latin American private debt markets.

Lucas Pinsdorf, business director at Mercado Bitcoin, told Cointelegraph that the newly issued assets included a mix of receivables and corporate debt, backing both Brazilian and foreign borrowers. 

“What is particularly interesting is that these are not limited to Brazilian companies,” he said. “Within the issuances, Mercado Bitcoin also chose to issue debt for an American company.”

RWA demand expanding globallyPinsdorf said the initial $20 million offering sold through quickly, increasing confidence that the $100 million target would be “a sell‑out … very soon.” 

According to RWA.xyz data, Mercado Bitcoin ranks among the world’s top 10 tokenized private credit issuers, with more than $370 million in cumulative loans.

Still, it is far behind the market leaders. The top three issuers tracked by RWA.xyz have issued at least $5.4 billion each.

Private credit platforms. Source: RWA.xyzPinsdorf said that Mercado Bitcoin structured its private credit tokens within Brazil’s regulated framework, drawing on licenses within its group supervised by the country’s Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM) and the Central Bank of Brazil. 

Latin America’s tokenized credit raceMercado Bitcoin’s RWA pipeline follows a broader regional movement to bring yield‑bearing instruments onchain. 

In Argentina, long-standing crypto exchange Ripio recently launched local currency stablecoins and tokenized sovereign exposure as Latin American issuers seek to bridge traditional credit markets and blockchain liquidity.

Pinsdorf said Mercado continued to engage with regulators to shape the roadmap for tokenized finance.

“We hope for clearer and more objective frameworks on how the path to tokenization in the financial market will be paved,” he said.

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TL;DR

Binance added about 1,315 BTC to its SAFU fund as part of a plan to convert $1 billion of reserves into Bitcoin. The BTC move was an internal reclassification into SAFU, not necessarily open‑market buying, but signals protection emphasis. Increasing Bitcoin in a user protection fund may shape reserve narratives and offer data signals for short‑term market behavior. Binance has increased its allocation to the Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU) by adding approximately 1,315 BTC, a move that reflects the exchange’s ongoing efforts to strengthen investor protection and expand its reserve strategy. This transfer was recorded as an on‑chain movement into a SAFU‑linked wallet, representing a sizeable contribution of Bitcoin worth roughly $100 million at recent prices. Binance has maintained that the SAFU fund exists to protect users in times of market stress, and this additional Bitcoin endowment highlights the company’s commitment to maintaining financial safety buffers for its ecosystem.

#Binance SAFU Fund Asset Conversion progress update.

Binance has completed the second batch of Bitcoin conversion for the SAFU Fund, amounting to 100M USD stablecoins.

Our SAFU BTC address:
1BAuq7Vho2CEkVkUxbfU26LhwQjbCmWQkD

TXID: https://t.co/xm87A7Zd9T

We’re continuing to… pic.twitter.com/i3H2cCYYB2

— Binance (@binance) February 4, 2026

What the SAFU BTC Move Means for Binance and the Market The 1,315 BTC addition aligns with Binance’s broader plan to convert $1 billion of reserve value into Bitcoin. According to plans outlined by the exchange, the SAFU fund may be rebalanced into Bitcoin in stages. Moving this amount into the fund’s designated wallet suggests that Binance is actively executing a strategy tied to dollar‑pegged reserve conversion, not simply conducting an isolated transfer. This could underpin investor confidence by showing that the exchange is willing to hold Bitcoin inside its protection fund rather than in stable assets.

The Bitcoin transfer was an internal treasury reclassification rather than a direct open‑market purchase. On‑chain analysis indicates that the BTC moved into SAFU came from a wallet cluster associated with Binance itself. This suggests the action was part of internal treasury logistics, designed to comply with the exchange’s stated objectives for the fund. Such reclassifications help clarify that the move was protective in nature and not an immediate bid in public markets, which might otherwise be interpreted as direct price support.

Increasing SAFU’s Bitcoin holdings could affect market narratives around reserve strength. By positioning more of its safety fund in Bitcoin, Binance changes how observers interpret its reserve composition. A fund weighted toward Bitcoin may be more price sensitive, and rebalancing language becomes important. The move may also create on‑chain signals that traders watch closely, though analysts caution that internal transfers are not equivalent to new demand from outside buyers.

For users and market participants, Binance’s SAFU top‑up reinforces a narrative of strengthened risk management at a time when broader crypto markets remain sensitive to liquidity and exchange stability. If similar actions continue under the announced conversion plan, they may provide predictable data points for traders assessing Bitcoin’s short‑term demand dynamics.

Ripple-Backed Diamond Tokenization on XRP Ledger Ushers in $280M Dubai InitiativeIn a groundbreaking move for the diamond and digital asset markets, over AED 1 billion ($280 million) in polished diamonds has been tokenized on the XRP Ledger. 

The Billiton Diamond and Ctrl Alt partnership uses Ripple’s enterprise-grade custody technology to securely issue and transfer these assets on-chain, marking a major step toward mainstream commodity tokenization.

Billiton Diamond, famed for its Vickrey auction model in rough diamonds, is now breaking ground with tokenized polished diamond offerings. In partnership with Ctrl Alt, Billiton’s approved inventory has been fully tokenized, with each token carrying real-time verification of grading, certification, and provenance. 

Therefore, this blockchain-based system allows investors to trace every stone’s origin and ownership history, merging transparency, security, and efficiency in diamond trading.

$280M in Diamonds Go DigitalThe initiative places Billiton at the cutting edge of diamond investment and showcases Ctrl Alt’s rising leadership in commodities tokenization. 

By digitizing diamonds, investors gain transparent, streamlined access to both primary and secondary markets, boosting liquidity, efficiency, and auditability throughout the diamond lifecycle, all under the regulatory oversight of the UAE’s VARA.

Reece Merrick, Managing Director, Middle East & Africa at Ripple, welcomed the move, stating, 

“The potential of tokenization relies on enterprise-grade trust and security. As Billiton Diamond and Ctrl Alt move $280 million in diamond inventory onto the XRPL, our custody technology provides the rigorous security required to manage these assets at scale, proving that high-value physical assets can be moved on-chain with absolute confidence.”

Ripple’s XRP Ledger was selected for its fast settlements, low fees, and scalable architecture, key for transferring high-value assets on-chain. Combined with Ripple’s secure custody solution, physical diamonds stay protected while their digital twins move globally in near real-time.

The Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC) has been pivotal in driving the project, connecting stakeholders and building an ecosystem capable of large-scale diamond tokenization. Its role highlights Dubai’s emergence as a global hub for digital assets and commodities innovation.

Future phases will enhance lifecycle functionalities, including secondary market access, custody, and transfer mechanisms, bridging traditional diamond trading with blockchain-enabled financial markets. This initiative sets a new standard for tokenized commodities, showcasing how regulated, blockchain-backed infrastructures can improve transparency, efficiency, and accessibility in luxury assets.

With $280M in diamonds now live on-chain, the combination of XRPL technology, institutional-grade custody, and Dubai’s regulatory framework is redefining the potential of tokenized commodities worldwide.

ConclusionThe $280 million diamond tokenization project on the XRP Ledger represents a landmark shift for both the diamond and digital asset markets. Leveraging Ripple’s secure custody, real-time blockchain verification, and VARA’s regulatory oversight, it showcases how high-value commodities can be digitized with transparency and efficiency. 

Beyond boosting liquidity and accessibility, the initiative paves the way for institutional-grade investment in tokenized assets, bridging physical markets with blockchain innovation. As Dubai emerges as a global hub for digital asset trading, this collaboration sets a blueprint for transforming investment, ownership, and market dynamics worldwide.

Bitcoin's price stands at $76,065 on Feb. 4, 2026 at 8 a.m. EST, capping a dramatic 24-hour range between $72,863 and $79,113. Its market capitalization hovered at $1.51 trillion, with $74.04 billion in trading volume keeping the digital pulse fast and furious.

Ethereum price prediction centers on a decisive test near $2,150 after a sharp weekly selloff. Moreover, chart structure and on-chain valuation bands point to a deeper downside zone below $2,000 if support fails.

Ethereum Weekly Chart Tests $2,150 Support as Cheds Flags $1,500 RiskEthereum slid to the $2,150 area on the weekly chart after a sharp selloff, placing price on a level traders have treated as a long-running pivot. On the TradingView weekly view, ETHUSD printed a large red candle that cut through short-term moving averages and pushed price back into a horizontal support band that has capped and supported multiple swings since 2022. Market commentator Cheds said the $2,150 zone is the most important level on the entire chart history, adding that failure to hold this area opens the door to a deeper move toward the $1,500 range.

Ethereum / U.S. Dollar, 1W (ETHUSD). Source: TradingView / X

Price action shows ETH rolling over from the upper Bollinger Band after repeated rejections near the $4,000–$4,600 region earlier in the cycle. As price fell, ETH slipped below the 8-week and 34-week averages and continued toward the rising long-term trendline that guided the market from the 2022 low. The 50-week average now sits overhead and acts as near-term resistance, while the long-term trendline intersects near the current support band, tightening the decision zone around $2,150.

Momentum signals reflect a breakdown in structure rather than a brief pullback. The weekly sequence shows lower highs since the cycle peak, followed by a fast expansion in range as sellers pressed through prior consolidation shelves. Volume expanded on the selloff, and the candle closed near the lower half of its range, which signals sustained pressure into the weekly close. As a result, the $2,150 area now defines the line between a stabilizing base and continuation toward the next major demand pocket near $1,500, which aligns with the prior range lows from 2023 and the lower Bollinger Band zone on the weekly timeframe.

Ethereum MVRV Bands Flag Sub-$2,000 as Historical Bottom ZoneEthereum’s long-term on-chain valuation model points to a familiar downside region as price trends lower on higher timeframes. Data from Glassnode shows ETH moving within the MVRV pricing bands, with past cycle lows forming when price dipped below the 0.80 band. Ali Charts said Ethereum bottoms have historically formed under this threshold, which now maps to the area just below $2,000 on the model.

Ethereum MVRV Pricing Bands. Source: Glassnode via Ali Charts (X)

The chart plots ETH against multiple MVRV bands that track market value relative to realized value across cycles. In prior drawdowns, price moved beneath the 0.80 band before stabilizing, then later reclaimed higher bands during recoveries. That pattern repeated during major downside phases, including the post-2021 unwind and earlier cycle resets, which marked extended basing periods near the lower valuation envelope.

As the model updates, the lower band continues to rise with network cost basis over time, while upper bands expand during bullish phases and compress during consolidations. The current configuration places the historical bottom zone below the 0.80 MVRV line, which has acted as a long-term valuation floor during stress phases across multiple market cycles.

TLDR: Binance SAFU Fund purchased 1,315 BTC worth $100.42M on February 4, its second buy in two days. Total two-day accumulation reached 2,630 BTC valued at approximately $201.12M at $76,000 per coin. Purchases represent 20% of Binance’s plan to convert $1B in stablecoins to Bitcoin within 30 days. CEO CZ dismissed critics with “Fudders FUD. Binance buys” while providing transparent blockchain data. Binance SAFU Fund acquired 1,315 Bitcoin on February 4, completing its second major purchase within 48 hours.

The transaction, valued at approximately $100.42 million, brings the fund’s two-day accumulation to 2,630 BTC worth around $201.12 million.

These purchases form part of Binance’s broader plan to convert $1 billion in stablecoin reserves to Bitcoin over 30 days.

Rapid Accumulation Over Two Days The SAFU fund executed identical purchases on two consecutive days, acquiring 1,315 BTC in each transaction. On February 2, the fund completed its first purchase at similar pricing levels. Two days later, another 1,315 BTC joined the reserve through a publicly verified blockchain transaction.

Data from Arkham confirmed the February 4 acquisition, showing active movement of funds into the designated SAFU Bitcoin address.

Binance announced the completion through its official social media channels with full transaction transparency. The exchange stated it is “continuing to acquire Bitcoin for the SAFU fund, aiming to complete conversion of the fund within 30 days.”

Each Bitcoin in these transactions cost approximately $76,000, reflecting current market conditions following recent price corrections.

The consistent purchase amounts suggest a systematic approach to reserve conversion rather than opportunistic buying.

This methodical strategy allows the fund to accumulate substantial holdings while maintaining operational consistency.

The combined 2,630 BTC represents a significant portion of the planned $1 billion conversion announced on January 29.

At current prices, the two-day purchases account for roughly 20 percent of the total planned Bitcoin acquisition. This rapid start indicates Binance’s commitment to executing the conversion ahead of schedule.

Building Emergency Reserves Through Bitcoin The Secure Asset Fund for Users serves as Binance’s primary emergency insurance pool since its establishment in 2018.

The fund operates independently from the exchange’s operational capital to protect users against cyberattacks and technical failures. Converting stablecoin holdings to Bitcoin represents a strategic shift in how these emergency reserves are structured.

CEO CZ responded to market observers questioning the timing of these purchases with a direct statement. He posted “Fudders FUD. Binance buys,” dismissing skepticism while reaffirming the exchange’s acquisition strategy. His response came as Bitcoin prices remained below recent highs of $90,000.

The decision to accumulate 2,630 BTC during a period of market uncertainty demonstrates confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition.

Rather than waiting for potential further price declines, Binance executed large-scale purchases at current levels. This approach prioritizes swift reserve conversion over attempting to time market bottoms.

Industry observers noted the purchases as evidence of institutional confidence during volatile trading conditions. The substantial capital deployment strengthens user protection mechanisms while simultaneously supporting Bitcoin demand.

Exchange reserves have become critical components of cryptocurrency market infrastructure as user security expectations continue evolving.