Market Signal Briefing

Solana (SOL), down 3.1% since Thursday, joined Aave (AAVE) as an underperformer.

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Bitcoin is not a permitted investment asset for Vancouver under the Vancouver Charter and British Columbia’s Municipal Finance Authority Act. Mayor Ken Sim proposed in 2024 adding bitcoin to the city’s reserves as an inflation hedge; the council approved the motion with six votes in favor. Officials left open the possibility of Vancouver accepting BTC payments for taxes or fees, provided they are immediately converted to Canadian dollars. The Vancouver mayor’s proposal to invest municipal reserves in Bitcoin hit a legal wall before reaching a formal council decision. A report prepared by city officials, led by Colin Knight, general manager of the Finance and Supply Chain Management Department, conclusively determined that BTC is not a permitted investment under the Vancouver Charter.

The document recommends shelving the 2024 motion through which Mayor Ken Sim sought to make Vancouver a “bitcoin-friendly city.” The proposal had been approved by the council with six votes in favor and two against.

Section 201 of the Vancouver Charter restricts the investment of idle municipal funds to a limited set of instruments: federal or provincial government securities, state-guaranteed bonds, municipal debt, bank-guaranteed investments, credit union deposits, and certain pooled investment vehicles.

British Columbia’s Municipal Finance Authority Act complements that framework, limiting eligible assets to bonds, debentures, deposit certificates, and promissory notes. Equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies are expressly excluded from the scheme.

One Path Still Remains Open for Bitcoin: Tax and Fee Payments Sim’s initiative was born in part as a response to concerns over the loss of purchasing power of public funds. The original motion argued that Bitcoin, with its fixed supply of 21 million units, could serve as a hedge against inflation and monetary devaluation. However, that argument lost traction due to market volatility: BTC fell approximately 50% from its October 2025 peak, when it surpassed $126,000, retreating to late-2024 levels.

One minor point remains unresolved: whether Vancouver could accept Bitcoin as a form of payment for taxes or fees, on the condition that it is immediately converted to Canadian dollars. The charter regulates how funds are invested, but not necessarily how payments are processed, which leaves that avenue open.

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

Cardano Foundation CEO Frederik Gregaard points to an infrastructure gap in AI accountability.

The Cardano Foundation CEO believes that the most crucial question to consider is not whether AI agents are capable, but if, when one of them makes a consequential mistake, and eventually, one will, it can be answered definitively: who authorized this, what were the constraints and where does responsibility sit.

AI agents refer to sophisticated software systems built to perform specific tasks autonomously within the blockchain ecosystem. In recent years, advancements in artificial intelligence have grown significantly, leading to a future where billions of AI agents might be embedded in everyday life.

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In early February, Coinbase introduced agentic wallets, which it claims to be the first wallet infrastructure built specifically for agents. This comes as AI agents proliferate in the crypto industry.

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Cardano seems to have gotten off to an early start with Masumi, a blockchain-based network protocol, accompanied by a suite of solutions that enable AI agent developers to easily participate in a decentralized ecosystem.

In February, Cardano builder Input Output Group announced a collaboration to deploy Masumi on Hydra, a major step toward powering the emerging agent economy on Cardano.

What's missing?According to Cardano Foundation CEO Frederik Gregaard, many enterprise leaders understand the AI opportunity, but how many have asked who is accountable when their AI acts on their behalf? As supply chain partners, counterparties and customers move toward organizations that can prove accountability end to end, the answer to that question will determine who gets to do business and who gets left on the outside, Gregaard added.

The question is not whether your AI agents are capable. It is whether, when one of them makes a consequential mistake, and eventually, one will, you can answer definitively: who authorized this, what were the constraints, and where does responsibility sit.

Many enterprise…

— Frederik Gregaard (@F_Gregaard) March 6, 2026 Gregaard stated that the infrastructure gap is real, but the tools to close it exist. The only variable is whether an organization builds this before or after an incident forces the issue.

ADA now accepted at 137 SPAR stores across SwitzerlandThe Cardano Foundation recently announced the integration of the Cardano blockchain into DFX.swiss's platform.

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At the center of the integration is the crypto payment standard Open Crypto Pay, allowing users to now pay with ADA in 137 SPAR stores across Switzerland.

The payment function of Open Crypto Pay also allows Cardano from native ADA wallets to be used directly at checkout for payment.

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

Pseudonymous X account @WhaleFUD, with more than 440,000 followers, has spread the word about a mammoth accumulation of XRP made by cryptocurrency whales since October of last year.

On Oct. 10, US President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on imports from China, which triggered multibillion-dollar liquidations across the cryptocurrency market, marking the beginning of the current downtrend.

4.18+ billion XRP added by whalesAccording to the tweet, large crypto whales have scooped up a monstrous amount of XRP since October 10, more than 4.18 billion coins. At the current prices, this mammoth XRP batch equals $6.7 billion.

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On Oct. 10, XRP saw roughly 40% of its market value erased in a matter of hours, as around $19 billion in crypto liquidations ripped the market apart. Back then, XRP was trading at around $2.40 per coin, while it is currently trading at $1.40.

This massive accumulation of XRP rather signals long-term optimism on behalf of institutional whales.

XRP whales have added over 4.18 billion tokens to their cumulative balance since the Oct. 10 crash that marked the start of the ongoing downtrend

— WF (@WhaleFUD) March 6, 2026 Overall, according to various analysts, 40% of all altcoins are currently dropping to all-time lows, seeing their trading volumes and market value wiped out. However, as the discussions of the Clarity Act proceed in the White House, the Ripple team, as well as the XRP community, hopes that if passed, this legal initiative will benefit XRP, as well as the crypto space as a whole, turning the U.S. into a global crypto technology hub.

However, the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, remains resilient, standing firm against the present headwinds of market volatility caused by geopolitical events in the Middle East.

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Bitcoin sits firmly above $70,000This week, Bitcoin surged 13.34% to a local peak of $74,000 after falling to $65,000 previously. While Bitcoin quickly recovered, the stock market, as well as gold and silver, faced a severe crash. BTC showed a lack of correlation with the leading tech and industrial stocks (the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes), while the latter slumped as negative geopolitical events began to unfold in the Middle East.

While by now Bitcoin has declined by 4.84%, the bellwether cryptocurrency is still trading slightly above the psychologically important $70,000 price level.

Besides, crypto treasury companies, such as Strategy, continue to accumulate BTC on the dip, reaffirming their long-term bet on Bitcoin.

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance, has decided to add "monitoring tags" to nine cryptocurrencies on its platform. As per the exchange’s announcement shared by Wu Blockchain, these assets face a high risk of being delisted from Binance if the exchange finds them below standard after review.

How monitoring tags could trigger market fearNotably, the affected assets are Contentos (COS), Dego Finance (DEGO), Ampleforth Governance Token (FORTH), FUNToken (FUN) and Hooked Protocol (HOOK). Others include Loopring (LRC), MOBOX (MBOX), Orchid (OXT) and dogwifhat (WIF).

According to Binance, these assets are getting the monitoring tags because the exchange believes they carry a higher risk than usual. The aforementioned tokens are likely recording low liquidity or trading volume.

Binance will add the monitoring tag to COS, DEGO, FORTH, FUN, HOOK, LRC, MBOX, OXT and WIF, while removing it from FLOW and removing the seed tag from ONDO and VIRTUAL. Tokens with the monitoring tag are considered higher risk and are subject to close review, with the possibility…

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) March 6, 2026 It is also possible that the tokens have weak development activity, project instability or high volatility. For Binance, these projects are now being closely monitored, and if they continue to fail the exchange’s listing standards, Binance would have no option but to delist them completely from its platform.

It is worth mentioning that attaching a monitoring tag does not automatically lead to delisting. It is an opportunity for the project to improve and meet the exchange’s standards.

However, the tag often creates short-term bearish pressure on the token. This is because once an asset has been tagged, it could trigger fear in the minds of investors and traders, who might be scared of a possible future delisting.

Hence, if the affected projects do not double their efforts in ensuring they are removed from the monitoring tag, they could eventually get delisted. This could lead to less visibility and more downturn for the project in the crypto space.

Nonetheless, Binance has continued to periodically conduct risk reviews of assets as a safeguard to users on the platform. This is particularly critical amid ongoing crypto volatility that has affected meme coins like WIF, which soared previously but now faces increased sell pressure and declining price.

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The meme coin has slipped by over 20% in the last 30 days. As of this writing, dogwifhat is changing hands at $0.1985, which represents a 10.31% decline in the last 24 hours.

Binance removes tags from FLOW, Ondo and Virtual ProtocolMeanwhile, effective March 6, 2026, Binance says the monitoring tag that it placed on Flow (FLOW) has been removed. 

This implies that FLOW has improved enough to no longer be viewed as a high-risk asset by the exchange.

Similarly, two other projects, namely Ondo Finance and Virtual Protocol, have gained some level of maturity in the crypto space. As a result, Binance has removed the seed tag, which is used for very early-stage crypto projects, from the duo.

The Bitcoin price might be standing at one of those uncomfortable moments markets love, where bullish signals scream “rally,” but the chart quietly whispers, “careful.”

A technical signal known as the Inter-exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) indicator has just flashed a golden cross for $BTC. Historically, that crossover has marked the beginning of major rallies. According to the indicator’s interpretation, by analyst, the long correction that dragged on for nearly a year could finally be over.

Sounds exciting. Maybe even convincing. But charts rarely move in straight lines, and the market right now seems to be sitting on a knife’s edge.

Let’s start with the optimistic side of the story. The Inter-exchange Flow Pulse indicator recently printed a golden cross. In simple terms, that crossover has previously aligned with the start of powerful upward trends in the market.

The signal suggests the prolonged consolidation phase might have served as a long period of reaccumulation. Instead of immediately blasting higher earlier in the cycle, the asset experienced a weaker rally followed by an extended cooling-off phase.

Now, according to the indicator, momentum could be shifting again. In previous cycles, similar golden crosses on the IFP indicator marked the early stages of significant rallies. That’s why some observers are framing the current signal as the point where the “real rally” begins.

Bitcoin Price Testing Critical Chart LevelNow here’s where the story gets interesting and a little less comfortable.

The Bitcoin price chart is reportedly testing what some analysts call the most important line on the chart. Historically, this level has acted as a decisive turning point for the market.

The pattern is fairly straightforward. When price bounced off this level in past cycles, it eventually pushed toward new all-time highs. But when the level failed to hold, the market slid into deeper bear phases.

So the same line is back in play again. Same setup. Same tension. Different cycle. Which direction it breaks could determine the next major trend.

Market Waits For DirectionSo what does the Bitcoin price prediction crowd do with that? Well, this is where things get messy. One signal says the rally is just getting started. Another says the market is testing a structural level that historically decides between explosive growth and painful declines.

In other words, the chart isn’t giving answers yet. It’s asking a question. Traders watching Bitcoin/USD know this kind of setup well: long consolidation, conflicting signals, and a market hovering right at a critical support or resistance zone.

Break upward, and the narrative quickly shifts toward momentum and new highs. Lose the level, and suddenly the tone across the market changes entirely. For now, the market is simply waiting to see which direction the Bitcoin price chooses next.

Trust with CoinPedia:CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017. All content is created by our expert panel of analysts and journalists, following strict Editorial Guidelines based on E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness). Every article is fact-checked against reputable sources to ensure accuracy, transparency, and reliability. Our review policy guarantees unbiased evaluations when recommending exchanges, platforms, or tools. We strive to provide timely updates about everything crypto & blockchain, right from startups to industry majors.

Investment Disclaimer:All opinions and insights shared represent the author's own views on current market conditions. Please do your own research before making investment decisions. Neither the writer nor the publication assumes responsibility for your financial choices.

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Bitcoin (BTC)

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Ahmed Balaha

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Ahmed Balaha is a journalist and copywriter based in Georgia with a growing focus on blockchain technology, DeFi, AI, privacy, digital assets, and fintech innovation.

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18 minutes ago

Bitcoin is slowly disappearing from exchanges, and some analysts think that could matter a lot for future price prediction.

New data from CryptoQuant shows the amount of BTC sitting on centralized exchanges has dropped below 2.7 million coins.

That is the lowest level of exchange liquidity since 2018.

Source: CryptoQuantThis shift has been building for years. Exchange balances once held more than 3.5 million BTC during the last bull cycle, but that number has been falling ever since the turmoil of 2022 pushed many investors to move coins into self-custody.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs are absorbing large amounts of BTC from the market, while corporate treasuries like Strategy Inc. continue stacking coins and locking them away.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Could a Supply Shock Push BTC Higher?If exchange balances continue to decline while institutional demand grows, the shrinking liquid supply could amplify future price moves as buyers compete for fewer available coins.

However, if we are talking short term, the Bitcoin price tried to break higher, but the rally did not hold enough.

Source: BTCUSD / TradingViewPrice briefly pushed above the $72,000 resistance and even poked through the descending trendline that has capped rallies for weeks. Then sellers stepped in fast and knocked it back down.

That rejection matters. It shows the $72,000 area is still a tough wall for buyers to break.

Now Bitcoin is drifting back toward the $70,000 zone again. If that level gives way, momentum could shift lower with $64,000 as the next major support.

Lose that, and the $60,000 region comes back into the conversation.

For now, the chart still looks like a range.

Bitcoin keeps bouncing between roughly $64,000 and $72,000. Until that upper ceiling breaks for real, the market may keep grinding sideways.

New Bitcoin Presale Raises Millions to Bring Solana Technology to BitcoinBitcoin has one annoying problem. It is powerful, secure, and trusted. But it is also slow. Really slow.

That is why most people treat it like a digital trophy. They buy it, stare at the chart, and pray the next candle turns green.

Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is trying to change that.

Instead of letting Bitcoin sit there like a passive asset, the project wants to unlock what it can actually do. The goal is simple. Combine Bitcoin’s security with the speed and efficiency you normally see on networks like Solana.

Think faster payments. Staking. Apps. Real activity on top of Bitcoin instead of endless speculation.

And people are clearly paying attention.

The presale has already pulled in more than $32 million, with $HYPER currently priced at $0.0136751 before the next scheduled increase.

There is also a strong incentive for early believers. Buyers can stake their tokens and earn rewards of up to 37%, the kind of yield that tends to attract early momentum and speculative capital fast.

To buy HYPER before it lists on exchanges, simply visit the official Bitcoin Hyper website and connect a wallet (such as Best Wallet).

Visit the Official Bitcoin Hyper Website Here

Bitcoin (BTC) has slid 5% over the past 24 hours, falling below $67,000 and erasing yesterday’s gains as renewed institutional outflows and rising geopolitical tensions pressured the broader crypto market.

However, our machine learning algorithm suggests that the ongoing decline is short-term, with the asset set to bounce back to some of the highest levels this year by the end of the month.

Machine learning algorithm predicts Bitcoin price To be more precise, Finbold’s AI prediction agent combined inputs from ChatGPT, Grok, and Gemini artificial intelligence (AI) models to generate a more objective price target for the flagship crypto. 

In the end, it was projected that Bitcoin would climb back to $74,671, implying a 6.82% rally from the current levels that would send the cryptocurrency back to where it roughly was at the beginning of February.

Bitcoin price prediction. Source: Finbold All three large language models (LLMs) were positive that ‘digital gold’ was only suffering from a minor setback.

Gemini gave the boldest figure, forecasting a price of $76,500 (+9.44%). Grok and ChatGPT, on the other hand, set their targets at $74,012 (+5.88%) and $73,000 (+5.14%), respectively.

The bullishness can be compared to that exhibited by DeepSeek, which argues that Bitcoin is going to continue climbing in 2026, albeit without regaining its all-time high.

LLMs predict Bitcoin price. Source: Finbold Bitcoin price outlook As mentioned, Bitcoin experienced another correction due to outflows and rising geopolitical tensions. Indeed, after a three-day streak of inflows totaling over $1 billion, the funds recorded net outflows of about $228 million on March 5. As a result, a significant source of buying pressure that had helped support Bitcoin’s recent price stability was gone.

Escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran also pushed global oil prices higher, to one-year highs, stoking renewed inflation concerns. All of this led to investors shift toward more traditional safe-haven assets compared crypto.

At the same time, a large $2.2 billion Bitcoin options expiry introduced further short-term volatility as market participants hedged positions around a “max pain” level near $69,000.

Technically, Bitcoin again faces strong resistance near $71,500. On the downside, analysts are closely watching the $68,000–$68,500 support zone, which aligns with the recent trading range low and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the current rally. In the near term, though, the combination of ETF outflows and macro headwinds has tilted momentum to the downside. 

Featured image via Shutterstock

Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) ETFs have seen $1.5 billion in inflows since launch, with Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas calling it “defying physics” as SOL tests critical $80 support. The ‘Defying Physics' ETF Performance Solana ETFs launched in the U.S. in July 2025, but SOL has since fallen 57%.

The Bitcoin price has slipped below the $69,000 mark once again after facing strong rejection near the crucial $72,000 resistance level. The repeated failure to break above this barrier has intensified selling pressure across the market, pushing BTC into a fresh corrective phase. Technical indicators are now beginning to tilt bearish, suggesting that bullish momentum may be weakening in the short term.

Meanwhile, market attention has shifted toward Jane Street, as reports of large Bitcoin transfers linked to the firm have sparked speculation about potential market influence. With volatility rising, traders are now closely watching whether the recent downturn is purely driven by market dynamics or if large institutional movements are contributing to the current price action.

Jane Street’s Bitcoin Movements Raise Market ConcernsRecent on-chain activity has once again brought Jane Street into the spotlight after the firm reportedly moved nearly $19 million worth of Bitcoin to centralized exchanges earlier today. Large transfers to exchanges are often interpreted as a potential signal of selling intent, which may add short-term pressure to the market, especially during periods of heightened volatility.

The latest movement has reignited discussions among traders because Jane Street has previously been linked to major crypto market events. During the Terra Collapse in 2022, the firm’s trading activity reportedly drew attention amid the extreme market turbulence surrounding the fall of TerraUSD and Luna.

In addition, market participants have frequently pointed to a pattern of sharp Bitcoin sell-offs around the 10 AM trading window, a phenomenon that some traders speculate could be connected to large institutional trading strategies. While there is no confirmed evidence directly linking these patterns to Jane Street, the firm’s substantial liquidity and market-making role often place it at the center of such discussions.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Key Levels to Watch as BTC Slips Below $69KFrom a technical perspective, Bitcoin has broken below a crucial short-term support zone after failing to reclaim the $72,000 resistance level, which has triggered renewed selling pressure in the market. The 4-hour chart shows that BTC had been trading within a rising channel, but the latest rejection near the upper boundary pushed the price back toward the mid-range support. The price has now slipped below the 200-period moving average near $69,000, a development that signals weakening short-term momentum.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $68,700, and the immediate focus shifts toward the $66,000–$66,500 demand zone, which previously acted as a strong support region. This level also aligns with the lower boundary of the ascending channel and could serve as a crucial area where buyers may attempt to defend the price. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour timeframe has dropped toward the 40 level, suggesting that bullish strength is fading while sellers gradually gain control.

If Bitcoin manages to reclaim the $70,000–$71,000 zone, it could signal renewed buying interest and potentially push the price back toward the $72,000 resistance level. A successful breakout above this level may open the door for a move toward $74,000. On the downside, failure to hold the $66,000 support zone could expose Bitcoin to a deeper correction toward $64,000, where the next major demand area lies.

Trust with CoinPedia:CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017. All content is created by our expert panel of analysts and journalists, following strict Editorial Guidelines based on E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness). Every article is fact-checked against reputable sources to ensure accuracy, transparency, and reliability. Our review policy guarantees unbiased evaluations when recommending exchanges, platforms, or tools. We strive to provide timely updates about everything crypto & blockchain, right from startups to industry majors.

Investment Disclaimer:All opinions and insights shared represent the author's own views on current market conditions. Please do your own research before making investment decisions. Neither the writer nor the publication assumes responsibility for your financial choices.

Sponsored and Advertisements:Sponsored content and affiliate links may appear on our site. Advertisements are marked clearly, and our editorial content remains entirely independent from our ad partners.

Blue Owl Capital's OBDC II fund permanently halted redemptions in February. The firm replaced quarterly tenders with return-of-capital distributions funded by loan repayments and asset sales, committing to return roughly 30% of net asset value within 45 days.

Blue Owl also announced plans to sell $1.4 billion of assets across three credit funds to generate cash and pay down debt.

This isn't a Blue Owl problem, but a private credit structure problem under stress at scale.

Manager / vehicleWhat investors asked for (redemption pressure)What the fund did (gate vs raise cap)How cash was raisedWhat it signalsBlue Owl Capital — OBDC IIRedemption requests exceeded what the quarterly tender structure could reliably meetGated: permanently halted redemptions; replaced quarterly tenders with return-of-capital distributionsLoan repayments + asset sales; announced $1.4B of asset sales across three credit funds; committed to return ~30% of NAV within ~45 daysThe wrapper’s “quarterly liquidity” promise breaks first; when the exit queue forms, managers are forced into gates and asset salesBlackstone — BCREDHeavy withdrawals (reported $3.7B in Q1)Raised cap: increased quarterly redemption cap 5% → 7%; met requests rather than gating$400M+ support capital from the firm/employees, including $150M+ from senior executivesEven top-tier managers must manufacture liquidity (caps + internal capital) when redemptions rise; “liquid-on-paper” structures require someone to absorb the mismatchBlackstone's BCRED managed $3.7 billion in first-quarter withdrawals by raising its quarterly redemption cap from 5% to 7% and injecting over $400 million in support capital, including more than $150 million from senior executives.

When executives writing the checks start writing bigger checks, the message is clear: the system is discovering that promising liquidity in a market built on illiquid loans creates pressure someone must absorb.

The question for Bitcoin isn't whether private credit stress matters, but which assets get sold first when the dash for cash begins.

The liquidity mismatch nobody wanted to pricePrivate credit is lending outside traditional banks, typically to mid-sized companies unable to access public bond markets.

The loans are hard to sell: no exchange, no continuous pricing, no depth. That works if everyone treats it as a long-term hold. The problem emerges when the fund wrapper promises quarterly or monthly redemptions while underlying assets remain illiquid.

When redemption requests exceed the 5% threshold, funds face a binary choice: gate withdrawals and destroy confidence, or sell into a market with limited buyers.

Blue Owl chose gates. Blackstone chose a hybrid approach: raise caps, inject capital, manage the flow. Both confirm that the liquidity mismatch is real and being tested.

Scale matters. Private credit estimates range from $2 trillion to $3.5 trillion, depending on the definition used. MarketWatch frames it around $3 trillion. Any of these represents a market large enough that confidence cracks don't stay contained.

AM Best data shows life and annuity insurers held approximately $1.8 trillion in private credit in 2025, roughly 46% of total debt holdings. Close to $1 trillion sits in the less-liquid bucket. Insurers don't panic-sell, but they reassess when liquidity becomes a topic.

Listed business development companies offer a real-time stress gauge. BDCs trade around 73% of net asset value. That 27% discount reflects market skepticism about mark accuracy and monetization ability without haircuts.

Business development companies trade at 73% of net asset value, reflecting market skepticism about private credit valuations and liquidation risk.Why Bitcoin becomes the pressure valveWhen liquidity stress hits, the response isn't careful rebalancing: it's a dash for cash.

The rule: sell what you can, not what you want. Private credit loans can't be sold instantly. Corporate bonds have buyers, but spreads widen when everyone's selling. Equities are liquid, but dumping large positions moves prices.

Bitcoin trades 24/7 with deep liquidity and near-instant settlement. No waiting for the market open. No broker calls. You can raise cash immediately. That makes Bitcoin a natural first stop when priority shifts from “optimize returns” to “get liquid now.”

March 2020 offers the template. When the COVID liquidity shock hit, Bitcoin dropped nearly 50% in a day. The selloff reflected funds liquidating the most accessible risk assets to meet margin calls and redemptions.

Bitcoin sold first because it could be sold first.

If private credit stress escalates, the pattern repeats. Redemptions rise. Funds trimming liquid holdings. Investors are reducing leverage preemptively. Bitcoin, trading 24/7 with no circuit breakers, absorbs selling pressure ahead of traditional markets.

The three scenarios for Bitcoin pricesIf the private credit selloff accelerates, there are three likely scenarios for Bitcoin.

The first scenario is a contained scare. A few more funds adjust liquidity terms. Headlines fade after two weeks. Credit spreads widen modestly but stabilize. BDC discounts remain elevated but don't collapse.

Bitcoin experiences choppy trading, down as much as 10%, then recovers. Base case if no major fund beyond OBDC II announces full suspension, and BCRED-style capital injections become standard.

The second scenario consists of cash grab spreads. Multiple funds raise caps or implement partial gates. BDC discounts deepen past 30%. Leveraged loan and high-yield spreads widen noticeably. Insurers publicly discuss private credit exposure.

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The media uses “shadow banking stress” language. Bitcoin faces 10% to 25% downside over two to eight weeks as “sell what you can” takes hold. Requires visible contagion beyond Blue Owl and Blackstone.

The third scenario, and the more aggressive, is a systemic run narrative. Broad gating across large funds. Visible write-downs as firms mark loans closer to BDC levels. Coverage shifts to insurer exposure and regulatory scrutiny.

Credit markets price default-cycle acceleration. Bitcoin initially drops 25% to 45% as forced deleveraging hits all risk assets.

However, if stress looks systemic enough to shift Fed policy toward easier conditions, Bitcoin can flip from victim to rebound leader.

An IMF working paper documents that a single “crypto factor” accounts for roughly 80% of the variation in cryptocurrency prices, with stronger links to US monetary policy than in earlier periods.

When markets pivot from “risk off” to “the Fed will ease,” Bitcoin moves faster than traditional assets.
The 2023 regional banking crisis offers precedent. Bitcoin initially sold on contagion fears, then rallied as markets priced in a Fed pause on hikes.

ScenarioWhat you’d see in private creditMarket tells (BDC discount + spread widening)BTC impact (2–8 weeks)Flip trigger (what changes the regime)Contained scareA few liquidity term changes; limited gatingBDCs stay in the ~70s; credit spreads widen modestly, then stabilize0% to -10% (choppy)None needed — stress fades on its ownCash grab spreadsMore caps raised / partial gates; “shadow banking stress” headlinesBDC discount >30% (Price/NAV below ~70); spreads widen meaningfully-10% to -25%Markets start pricing earlier cuts / easier financial conditionsSystemic run narrativeBroad gating + visible write-downsBDCs into 65–60 zone; spreads blow out (default-cycle pricing)-25% to -45% initiallyRate cuts / liquidity-response expectations dominate (BTC flips from victim → rebound leader)The plot twist nobody wants to priceTrack fund-level actions. Every raised redemption cap, suspended tender mechanism, or injected manager capital confirms that stress is spreading. OBDC II established the template: if others followed, quarterly liquidity would never be sustainable.

BDC pricing provides a real-time fear gauge. The 73% of the NAV level signals deep skepticism. If discounts widen to 65% or 60%, markets are pricing meaningful write-downs and fire sales.

Credit spreads reveal whether concern is liquidity-specific or default-driven. Leveraged loan spreads widening by 50 basis points suggests jitters. A 150-basis-point widening suggests markets are pricing in a turning credit cycle.

Rate cut expectations determine whether Bitcoin rebounds or stays suppressed.

If stress forces the Fed to pause tightening or accelerate cuts, Bitcoin benefits from easier conditions. If stress stays contained and Fed holds course, Bitcoin faces sustained pressure as a high-beta asset.

Bitcoin feels pain when private credit proves less liquid than advertised and investors simultaneously need cash.

Bitcoin sells first because it can. The irony is that if the selloff gets large enough to shift monetary policy expectations, Bitcoin can recover faster than the credit instruments that triggered the stress in the first place.

Private credit funds will spend months or years unwinding positions and managing redemption queues. Bitcoin will trade the Fed pivot in real time, 24 hours a day, with no gates and no waiting periods. The pressure valve cuts both ways.

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OKB, the native token of the crypto exchange OKX, experienced a sharp spike in price earlier on Thursday, rising by 60%. This rally was fueled by OKX development news. 

However, the excitement was short-lived, as the price quickly dropped after the initial surge. Here’s what led to the rise and subsequent decline in OKB’s price.

ICE Investment Triggers Surge in OKX Native TokenSpeculation around OKB surged after reports that Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) had invested in OKX. Many investors interpreted the involvement of a major financial institution as a strong signal of confidence in OKX’s long-term growth, fueling expectations that the exchange’s ecosystem—and its native token—could gain additional value.

The announcement triggered a sharp rise in investor interest. On-chain data showed a 944% increase in daily new addresses, jumping from 9 to 94 in a short period. This spike suggested that traders were rushing to position themselves early, anticipating that institutional backing could boost demand for OKB.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

OKB New Addresses. Source: GlassnodeThe surge in activity quickly translated into a strong price rally. However, the momentum proved largely speculation-driven. As the initial excitement faded and investors reassessed the news, the rally began to lose strength.

Bearish Divergence Signals Correction Ahead for OKBThe broader market momentum for OKB presents a mixed picture. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, which tracks the flow of capital in and out of assets, shows that while the price of OKB was posting higher highs, the CMF was forming lower highs. This bearish divergence suggests that the rally was not supported by solid capital inflows but rather driven by speculation.

The lack of strong buying pressure from genuine investors signals that the rally may not be sustainable. As the market adjusts and speculation wanes, OKB’s price is likely to experience a correction. This divergence indicates that when the speculative bubble bursts, the price of OKB could fall, especially if the capital inflows do not materialize to support further upward movement.

OKB CMF. Source: TradingViewOKB Price May Not Close Above $100OKB is currently trading at $97, just shy of the $100 mark. However, given the recent market behavior, it may be difficult for OKB to break through this resistance level. The 60% intra-day rise on Thursday marked a temporary peak, but the altcoin has since recorded a 21.6% decline.

Currently facing resistance at $98, OKB’s price could struggle to surpass this level. If it fails to break through, the token could dip to the $90 support level, which is marked by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line. Losing this support would likely push the price down further to $78, a level that OKB has tested in the past.

OKB Price Analysis. Source: TradingViewHowever, if investor sentiment shifts and inflows return, OKB could push past $98 and $100. A successful breach of these levels would allow the altcoin to aim for $108 or higher, invalidating the bearish outlook. Continued support from investors could fuel a further rally, providing a more optimistic future for OKB.

On Apr. 16, the Securities and Exchange Commission will host a public roundtable on listed options market structure covering quote-driven competition, customer experience, and growth.

This is standard regulatory fare, except that Bitcoin exposure is migrating into regulated, centrally cleared products just as the SEC is reconsidering how the machinery works.

Small changes to spreads, routing, and quoting can alter leverage costs, and when leverage gets cheaper, volatility patterns change.

The Mar. 5 announcement gives markets 42 days to prepare for the discussion going live.

Commissioner Hester Peirce framed it as celebrating achievement while inviting “further reflection,” signaling that the SEC recognizes that retail options participation has exploded. What she didn't mention: Bitcoin ETF options now sit inside that infrastructure, using the same clearing and market-maker networks as traditional equity derivatives.

The numbers that make this matterIBIT holds $56.8 billion across 1.36 billion shares, trading roughly 86 million shares daily, with a median spread of 0.03%. Options began trading on Nov. 19, 2024. Six months later, the SEC approved raising position limits from 250,000 to 1,000,000 contracts.

As of Feb. 11, 1,000,000 contracts represent 7.474% of IBIT shares outstanding. At 100 shares per contract, that's 100 million shares, more than a full day's volume.

IBIT options position limit increase from 250,000 to one million contracts enables 100 million shares of hedging demand, exceeding the ETF's daily average volume.Even a quarter of that limit, with a 0.40 delta, generates 10 million shares of dealer hedge demand, 12% of daily volume, enough to move markets during fast action or around expiration.

IBIT isn't alone. Nasdaq filings cover multiple Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Cboe offers cash-settled Bitcoin ETF index options. The Options Clearing Corporation now clears crypto-linked products using mainstream infrastructure.

February 2026 ETF options volume hit 528.9 million contracts, up 35.4% year-over-year.

ETF options volume surged to 528.9 million contracts in February 2026, up 35.4% year-over-year, as Bitcoin ETF options join mainstream infrastructure.Why market structure reforms leak into volatilityThe roundtable examines quote-driven competition, customer experience, and growth. These themes directly translate into execution quality.

Listed options operate as quote-driven markets, with market makers dominating liquidity. Small rule changes around quoting obligations, tick sizes, or auctions can significantly alter transaction costs.

If the SEC leans pro-competition, tightening spreads and improving price discovery, IBIT options get cheaper to trade. Cheaper options attract participants. More participants generate open interest. More open interest requires dealer hedging.

Dealer hedging in ETF shares translates into creation and redemption activity that touches Bitcoin spot through authorized participant flows.

The mechanism is mechanical. Market makers hedge options by trading underlying shares. For IBIT, that means ETF shares. Significant share quantities trigger either secondary-market trades or creation/redemption with authorized participants.

BlackRock's structure uses Bitcoin to create IBIT shares, establishing the direct link between listed options hedging and spot markets.

This matters most around expiration and sharp moves.

As Bitcoin approaches strikes with heavy open interest, gamma accelerates. Delta changes quickly, forcing rapid hedge adjustments. If 250,000 contracts sit at a strike and price gravitates there into expiration, dealers managing that exposure pull significant ETF volume feeding back into Bitcoin.

The cryptocurrency industry is developing equity-derivatives-style reflexivity, with pinning behavior, expiration effects, and volatility surface dynamics that traditional traders recognize.

Three scenarios for Bitcoin priceChanges to options could create three potential scenarios for Bitcoin.

The first scenario consists of pro-competition reforms: the SEC emphasizes quote competition, price improvement, and transparency. IBIT spreads tighten.

Volume and open interest rise. Bitcoin shows consistent calendar effects, with monthly expiries matter, implied vol repricing drives spot, and large strikes act as magnets. If reforms reduce spreads by 20-30%, hedging flows could routinely hit 10-15% of daily ETF volume during key periods.

The second scenario presents guardrails first. The SEC tilts toward retail protection, offering enhanced disclosures, stricter suitability requirements, and friction that slows aggressive behavior.

Growth continues but slowly. Leverage costs stay elevated. Bitcoin remains driven by macro liquidity rather than listed options flow.

Lastly, a scenario of structural evolution comes to life. Even without dramatic policy shifts, the category continues to expand. Multiple ETF underlyings gain listings. Cash-settled index products deepen. Central clearing brings institutions that have avoided offshore venues.

Bitcoin gradually exhibits equity-like behavior, with basis trading across spot/ETF/, and options, volatility-surface arbitrage, and systematic strategies treating Bitcoin as a high-beta tech with listed leverage.

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Bitcoin isn't isolated from traditional finance, it's embedded in it. Microstructure improvements accelerate that by lowering barriers for traditional participants.

ScenarioSEC emphasis (plain English)What changes in options trading (spreads/routing/quotes)What happens in IBIT options (volume/OI/spreads)BTC market behavior you’d expectWhat to watch (post–Apr 16)Pro-competition reforms“Make the market more competitive and cheaper to trade” (tighter quotes, better fills)More competitive quoting; stronger price-improvement/auction outcomes; lower friction in execution qualitySpreads tighten, volume + open interest rise, more strikes/expiries trade actively; deeper screensMore consistent options-calendar effects: sharper moves into expiries, more “magnet” behavior around big strikes, faster IV repricing leaking into spotIBIT options bid/ask spreads; OI growth rate; volume share by expiry; implied vol level + skew (calls vs puts); strike concentration near spot; “expiration-week” intraday volatility changesGuardrails first“Protect retail; slow the hottest behavior”More emphasis on disclosures, suitability/risk controls, and potentially frictions that reduce aggressive retail-style flow; execution quality focus is secondary to protectionGrowth continues but slower; spreads improve modestly (if at all); OI growth is more measuredBTC remains driven mostly by macro liquidity, with less incremental reflexivity from listed options; fewer “expiry-driven” dislocationsChanges in broker risk controls / approvals for options; IBIT options retail-heavy strike activity (lot sizes, short-dated flow); spreads and OI growth staying flat; IV skew less “call-bid”Structural evolution“No dramatic rule shift, but the ecosystem keeps scaling”Incremental microstructure tweaks; listings broaden across underlyings; institutions participate more because rails are familiarMore BTC-linked listed products (more ETF underlyings; index options deepen); steady increases in OI and liquidity over timeBTC gradually looks more equity-derivatives-like: basis trading across spot/ETF/options, vol-surface arb becomes more visible, volatility timing shifts toward listed expiriesNew listings (more ETF options series / index options depth); IBIT OI as % of ADV over time; term structure of IV (short vs long dated); ETF premium/discount to NAV around heavy options days; creation/redemption activity proxies (flows)What to watch starting Apr. 16The roundtable won't produce immediate rules.

The SEC will publish an agenda, stream discussion live, and accept comments under File Number 4-887. Real policy shifts arrive months later through formal rulemaking. But markets don't wait to reprice expectations.

Nevertheless, it is important to track IBIT options volume, open interest, and bid-ask spreads. Growth acceleration with tightening spreads signals expectations of a favorable competitive environment.

Additionally, investors should monitor implied volatility and skew, as upside calls being aggressively bid relative to puts suggests leveraged positioning migrating into listed options.

Another metric to observe is expiration-week behavior. Do monthly expiries show different intraday volatility? Does Bitcoin gravitate toward concentrated strikes?

A comparison of IBIT premium/discount to NAV around heavy options activity must be drawn then, as hedging can temporarily push ETF pricing away from fair value, forcing creation/redemption activity that moves Bitcoin.

Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to financial conditions and monetary policy. The options market structure operates within that framework: it can amplify or dampen moves, shift the timing of volatility, and change who drives price discovery.

However, it doesn't override the fundamental: when the Fed tightens and risk sells, Bitcoin sells too, regardless of how tight IBIT spreads are.

The plumbing to think aboutRetail investors discovering options through commission-free platforms don't concern themselves with quote competition or routing incentives.

They see prices and execute trades. But the machinery determining those prices shapes every transaction.

When the SEC reconsiders that machinery during explosive retail growth, the subtext is clear: the current structure may not scale indefinitely. Bitcoin arriving in that structure as a listed, cleared, exchange-traded product transforms the stakes.

Crypto spent years building parallel infrastructure, with its own venues, clearing, and culture. That separation is ending.

Not because Bitcoin is forced into traditional structures, but because traditional structures are adapting to Bitcoin demand. Spot ETFs were the first step. Listed options are second. Each integration creates transmission channels between crypto and traditional finance.

Apr. 16 won't determine Bitcoin's price or directly change rules. Yet, it marks regulators publicly acknowledging that listed options infrastructure now carries meaningful cryptocurrency exposure.

How they optimize it for competition, growth, protection, or some balance will influence how quickly Bitcoin's volatility regime comes to resemble equity derivatives rather than pure spot crypto trading.

The plumbing is boring until you realize what's flowing through it.

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Bitcoin payments company Strike has secured a BitLicense and money transmitter license from the New York State Department of Financial Services, allowing the firm to begin offering its bitcoin (BTC) financial services platform to residents and businesses in the state.

The approvals authorize Strike, operated by Chicago-based Zap Solutions, to provide services including bitcoin brokerage, recurring purchases, direct-deposit conversion to bitcoin, and bill payments funded with BTC, according to a March 5 announcement.

New York’s BitLicense regime, introduced by the NYDFS in 2015, is widely regarded as one of the most stringent regulatory frameworks for cryptocurrency companies in the United States.

Firms seeking to operate in the state must meet extensive requirements around anti-money laundering controls, cybersecurity standards, capital reserves, and ongoing regulatory oversight to win the regulatory nod.

Because companies generally cannot serve New York residents without a BitLicense or an equivalent trust charter, the approval opens the door for Strike to operate in one of the country’s largest financial markets. It also completes Strike's rollout across all 50 U.S. states, alongside multiple international markets.

"Receiving our BitLicense is a defining milestone for Strike," founder and CEO Jack Mallers said in a statement. "With our BitLicense, we can now bring that mission to New York, the global center of finance."

Strike allows users to buy and sell bitcoin through linked bank accounts, debit cards, or wire transfers and offers features such as automated recurring purchases and price-triggered orders. The company also allows customers to convert portions of their direct-deposited paychecks into bitcoin and to pay bills directly from bitcoin balances.

The firm said all bitcoin and cash balances are held 1:1 and are not lent out or used for corporate operations. As a regulated custodian under the NYDFS framework, Strike will also be subject to periodic audits, capital requirements, and cybersecurity examinations.

Mallers, a longtime bitcoin advocate, founded Strike as part of his broader vision to build payment infrastructure on the Bitcoin network. He previously led the Lightning-focused payments startup Zap, which later launched Strike as its consumer-facing Bitcoin financial services platform.

Strike now joins a relatively small group of companies approved to operate under New York’s crypto licensing regime. In recent years, the NYDFS has granted BitLicenses to crypto firms, including Anchorage Digital, MoonPay, and the Peter Thiel-backed crypto exchange operator Bullish.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

© 2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has reached a resolution in its long-running case against cryptocurrency entrepreneur Justin Sun, permanently dropping all claims against him and the Tron Foundation. As part of the agreement, Rainberry Inc.—the company responsible for developing the BitTorrent platform and closely tied to the Tron network—will pay a $10 million civil penalty.

Court documents filed on March 5, 2026, outline the terms clearly. Rainberry faces a permanent injunction barring it from future violations of securities regulations.

In contrast, every allegation against Sun in his personal capacity, along with the Tron Foundation and BitTorrent Foundation, has been dismissed with prejudice.

This legal step prevents the regulator from reopening the same issues later. Neither Sun nor the entities admitted any wrongdoing.

The case originated in March 2023, when the SEC accused the group of distributing TRX and BTT tokens through unregistered offerings and airdrops. Regulators also alleged a scheme of wash trading to inflate secondary-market volumes and undisclosed payments to celebrity promoters.

The settlement brings a swift close to these claims without imposing personal sanctions on Sun himself.

Sun welcomed the news on social media, describing the outcome as welcome closure

He reaffirmed his ongoing focus on building blockchain solutions and voiced willingness to collaborate with the SEC on developing practical guidelines for the industry moving forward.

This resolution arrives at a pivotal moment when U.S. oversight of digital assets is undergoing a noticeable evolution.

Regulators, once known for broad enforcement sweeps, are increasingly emphasizing balanced frameworks that support technological progress.

A string of favorable court outcomes for major participants has highlighted this trend.

Ripple Labs, for example, secured important clarifications in its multi-year dispute: courts ruled that programmatic sales of XRP on exchanges did not qualify as securities transactions.

Appeals concluded in 2025 with sharply reduced penalties, the dissolution of prior restrictions, and finality that preserved the company’s operational flexibility.

Similar lighter-touch resolutions involving other prominent firms have reinforced the pattern.

These developments, alongside 2025 legislative steps establishing clearer rules for stablecoins and digital-asset market structures, demonstrate a deliberate pivot.

Policymakers now appear committed to creating predictability that encourages responsible innovation rather than stifling it through prolonged litigation.

For the Tron network, the decision eliminates lingering uncertainty and allows teams to concentrate on scaling decentralized applications, cross-chain interoperability, and real-world utility in payments and content distribution.

Market participants view the outcome as further proof that regulators are calibrating their approach to nurture growth while maintaining investor safeguards.

As the cryptocurrency sector matures, pragmatic settlements like this one are expected to build confidence among builders and capital providers.

The shift signals a regulatory environment better aligned with fostering the next wave of blockchain advancement, potentially drawing more institutional interest and accelerating mainstream integration across global finance. With clarity replacing confrontation and so-called regulation by enforcement under form SEC Char Gary Gensler, the path forward looks considerably brighter for projects committed to long-term value creation.

TLDR PEI Licensing initiates trademark lawsuit against Pudgy Penguins NFT brand. Legal action centers on penguin imagery used in clothing and accessories. Complaint seeks injunction, product destruction, and financial damages. NFT project argues its branding differs and serves separate markets. Legal battle could influence future disputes between Web3 and legacy brands. PEI Licensing, the parent entity behind Original Penguin, initiated legal proceedings against the Pudgy Penguins NFT project in Florida’s Southern District Court. The complaint accuses the blockchain-based brand of unauthorized utilization of penguin imagery and related intellectual property. According to court documents, the cryptocurrency venture allegedly violated Original Penguin’s established trademark protections.

The licensing firm contends that Pudgy Penguins’ branding elements and visual designs generate consumer confusion in the marketplace. PEI specifically pointed to similarities across clothing lines and hat products. The legal action aims to block continued commercial exploitation of contested marks.

Additionally, PEI demands financial restitution based on revenue generated from the NFT brand’s merchandise sales. The company requests court-ordered destruction of all inventory featuring disputed designs. PEI also petitions for rejection of multiple trademark applications Pudgy Penguins filed with the United States Patent and Trademark Office.

Legal Claims Focus on Apparel and Branding The complaint asserts that the NFT venture’s business practices breach unfair competition statutes. PEI maintains the blockchain company’s operations undermine decades of established brand equity and customer trust. Court filings reference specific instances where penguin-themed garments appear substantially similar.

According to PEI, Pudgy Penguins sought trademark protection for terminology including “Pengu Nation.” These registration attempts encompass product categories already protected under Original Penguin’s existing marks. The licensing firm contends such filings would erode market clarity and brand identity.

Court records indicate the NFT brand persisted with disputed branding despite receiving prior legal notifications. PEI dispatched a formal cease-and-desist communication in October 2023. The company subsequently lodged formal opposition proceedings with patent authorities throughout 2024.

Pudgy Penguins Responds to Lawsuit Representatives from Pudgy Penguins expressed astonishment at the lawsuit’s filing. The organization stated that confidential negotiations had been underway to address concerns amicably. The NFT brand maintains its visual identity bears clear distinctions from Original Penguin’s established marks.

The blockchain venture emphasized it has successfully obtained numerous trademark approvals from USPTO authorities. Pudgy Penguins asserts its customer base and market positioning differ fundamentally from Original Penguin’s traditional retail segment. Company officials expressed confidence that judicial review will vindicate their position.

The legal filing demands immediate cessation of all Pudgy Penguins activities involving penguin-inspired imagery. PEI requests market withdrawal of any merchandise potentially creating brand confusion. The licensing company maintains active surveillance of the NFT brand’s retail operations and digital commerce platforms.

Pudgy Penguins debuted its Ethereum-based NFT series in 2021, rapidly ascending to prominence within cryptocurrency communities. The project expanded into Solana blockchain infrastructure with its PENGU token and penetrated mainstream retail through physical toy distributions. Industry reports suggest the collection achieved sales exceeding $10 million during its inaugural twelve months.

This legal confrontation illustrates escalating tensions between conventional intellectual property holders and blockchain-native enterprises. PEI Licensing emphasizes trademark rights extending to 1956 for its penguin iconography. The judicial determination may establish important precedents governing intellectual property enforcement against cryptocurrency-related ventures.

Oliver Dale

Editor-in-Chief of Blockonomi and founder of Kooc Media, A UK-Based Online Media Company. Believer in Open-Source Software, Blockchain Technology & a Free and Fair Internet for all. His writing has been quoted by Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Investopedia, The New Yorker, Forbes, Techcrunch & More. Contact [email protected]

Bitcoin is pinned in a heavy macro crossfire as Arthur Hayes argues that an Iran‑driven oil shock could drag the Fed into fresh money printing and ultimately catapult BTC toward six‑figure territory.

Summary

Hayes links a U.S.–Iran war, an oil spike, and surging bond volatility to a renewed “money printing bailout” that he says will be rocket fuel for BTC. Brent is already up roughly 24% in a month as conflict chokes the Strait of Hormuz, while Treasury yields and inflation expectations grind higher. BTC, stuck well below its 2025 peak near $126,000, is trading around the high‑$60,000s despite war‑risk headlines and Hayes’ unchanged targets of $250,000 in 2026 and up to $750,000 by 2027. War, oil, and the Fed: why Arthur Hayes thinks the next liquidity wave could launch Bitcoin (BTC) from the high‑$60,000s toward $250,000 and beyond

BitMEX co‑founder Arthur Hayes is stitching the U.S.–Iran confrontation directly into his long‑running liquidity thesis: if Brent keeps “ripping” on war risk, bond markets will crack, forcing the Federal Reserve back into the role of market backstop — and that, he argues, is when BTC rips. Brent has already climbed about 24% over the past month as fighting disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of global oil flows, pushing up both the 10‑year yield, now just above 4%, and market‑based inflation expectations. For Hayes, this is the first step in a familiar sequence: war, energy shock, bond stress, then policy capitulation.

His key macro tell is the MOVE Index, the bond market’s volatility gauge. Hayes has said a break above 140 on MOVE would likely force the Fed into a “money printing bailout,” and while the index sits near 70, he insists the direction matters more than the level. Each incremental uptick in volatility, in his view, tightens financial conditions, raises the risk of something breaking, and increases the probability that the Fed will cut rates faster or quietly restart balance‑sheet expansion.

Crypto, for now, is not trading like it believes the script. Hayes has left his BTC roadmap untouched — $250,000 in 2026, then $500,000 to $750,000 by end‑2027 — on the bet that governments facing “unhappy populations” will buy votes with fiscal sugar highs financed by central banks. Yet BTC is labouring: after an all‑time high above $126,000 in October 2025, it now hovers near $68,000, lagging classic havens like gold and oil even as Iran headlines dominate the tape. Rate‑futures pricing shows the odds of two or more cuts this year have already dropped from 79% to 57% as traders reprice oil‑driven inflation risk, undercutting the immediate case for aggressive easing.

If Brent oil (green) keeps ripping due to US-Iran war, 10-yr yields might spike in a volatile way forcing MOVE Index higher and that is a prereq for a money printing bailout. Still early doors but something to watch. pic.twitter.com/FhoTqRAnnA

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) March 5, 2026 That leaves a stalemate. Hayes tells investors to stay patient and wait for hard evidence — confirmed cuts, explicit balance‑sheet growth — before sizing up. Market technicians see scope for a squeeze toward $75,000–$80,000 if current support zones hold, but warn that thin liquidity and policy uncertainty can just as easily send BTC back through the mid‑$60,000s first. In this setup, BTC is less digital gold and more levered macro option on when, not if, the Fed blinks.

Wallets linked to Jane Street have deposited $19 million in Bitcoin to institutional-grade exchanges, and the crypto community is watching closely.

On-chain analyst Lookonchain flagged the move, confirming that in the past two hours, wallets associated with Jane Street deposited 270 BTC, worth approximately $19 million, to Bullish.com and LMAX Digital. The transfer hit around 10 a.m. UTC, exactly when U.S. markets opened.

Trader Ted (@TedPillows) corroborated the figures, noting the deposits totaled just under $19 million and that Jane Street is the same firm previously accused of manipulating Bitcoin’s price around the U.S. market open.

Ash Crypto was more direct on X: “IS JANE STREET PLANNING TO MANIPULATE BITCOIN AGAIN?“

IS JANE STREET PLANNING TO MANIPULATE BITCOIN AGAIN?

Just now, wallets linked to Jane Street have deposited $19,000,000 in $BTC to institutional-focused exchanges.

These are the platforms used for high-frequency trading, which has been responsible for the 10am slam in the past. pic.twitter.com/yUGJbkQSKM

— Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) March 6, 2026 Arkham on-chain data shows the transfers – 275 BTC to one address, 94.76 BTC to LMAX Digital, all within hours of each other.

What Is the Jane Street Bitcoin Manipulation Theory?For months through late 2025 and into 2026, Bitcoin reliably sold off every morning at the U.S. market open. Traders watching the pattern gave it a name: the “10 a.m. slam.”

The theory alleged that Jane Street, acting as an authorized participant in BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, was algorithmically selling BTC at open, a pattern some blamed for driving Bitcoin down from $125,000 to as low as $62,000.

Then on February 23, Terraform Labs’ bankruptcy administrator filed a lawsuit accusing Jane Street of insider trading tied to the 2022 LUNA/Terra collapse. Within 48 hours, the 10 a.m. selling stopped and Bitcoin surged 6% toward $70,000.

Glassnode co-founders Jan Happel and Yann Allemann noted: “Jane Street Lawsuit gets made public, and miraculously the 10am $btc slam disappears.”

Jane street Lawsuit gets made public, and miraculously the 10am $btc slam disappears.

— 𝗡𝗲𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗶𝗰 (@Negentropic_) February 25, 2026 Allegations Against Jane StreetThe Terraform case is not Jane Street’s only legal battle. In July 2025, India’s market regulator SEBI banned the firm from local markets and froze gains, citing a “morning pump, afternoon dump” scheme across 18 derivatives expiry days.

Not everyone in crypto agrees manipulation was ever happening.

Jane Street has denied all allegations, calling the Terraform suit “baseless, opportunistic claims.”

Economist Alex Kruger found that IBIT’s 10 a.m. returns closely mirrored Nasdaq performance rather than isolated Bitcoin selling.

CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno argued that Jane Street’s authorized participant activity is standard delta-neutral practice, fully within legal bounds.

How Low Will Bitcoin Fall?Bitcoin has slipped below the $70,000 mark, currently trading at $69,998, down 3.15% over the last 24 hours. Whether today’s $19 million deposit from Jane Street wallets is connected to that move remains unconfirmed.

Also Read: Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will BTC Hold $70K as Iran-Israel Tensions Rise?

Trust with CoinPedia:CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017. All content is created by our expert panel of analysts and journalists, following strict Editorial Guidelines based on E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness). Every article is fact-checked against reputable sources to ensure accuracy, transparency, and reliability. Our review policy guarantees unbiased evaluations when recommending exchanges, platforms, or tools. We strive to provide timely updates about everything crypto & blockchain, right from startups to industry majors.

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Shiba Inu (SHIB) continues to struggle as the memecoin trades under pressure despite a broader recovery in the cryptocurrency market.

At the time of writing, Shiba Inu was trading at about $0.00000549, after a decline of roughly 2.9% over the past 24 hours.

Shiba Inu has dropped about 6.2% in the past week, while losses extend to 12.5% over the last two weeks.

Notably, the price has been moving within a narrow daily range between $0.000005454 and $0.000005661, showing that traders remain cautious.

SHIB burn activity stalls for two consecutive daysOne development that has caught the attention of the community is the sudden slowdown in the Shiba Inu burn rate.

The burn mechanism is designed to reduce the token supply by sending coins to inaccessible wallets where they cannot be spent again.

This process is often viewed by supporters as a way to gradually increase scarcity and potentially support the price over time.

However, recent data shows that the burn rate has been stuck at zero for two consecutive days.

This means no measurable reduction in supply has been recorded during that period.

Even though some small transfers to burn addresses were reported, the amounts were too small to move the official burn metric.

Earlier in the week, the burn rate briefly surged by an extremely large percentage.

That spike appeared dramatic at first glance, but ultimately represented less than one million tokens removed from circulation.

Such fluctuations highlight how inconsistent burn activity can be in the Shiba Inu ecosystem.

Periods of sudden spikes are often followed by days where little or no burning takes place.

For traders, the lack of meaningful burn activity removes one of the narratives that occasionally fuels short-term optimism, and the market focus shifts back to technical indicators and broader crypto sentiment.

Weak momentum keeps SHIB in a downward channelShiba Inu’s price structure suggests that the asset is still moving inside a broader bearish trend.

The coin remains far below its all-time high of $0.00008616, which was reached during the height of the meme coin rally in October 2021.

That peak now serves as a reminder of how much value the token has lost during the prolonged market correction.

Over the past few weeks, the memecoin has attempted several rebounds, but each rebound attempt has been relatively small and quickly met with selling pressure.

This pattern often signals that the market lacks strong bullish conviction.

Trading activity has also remained relatively muted, which typically occurs when investors prefer to wait for clearer signals before committing capital.

Shiba Inu price forecastFor now, Shiba Inu appears to be stuck in a consolidation phase within a broader downtrend, and such phases can last for extended periods before a decisive breakout occurs.

Focus is currently on a key support level around $0.0000054, which the price is hovering close to.

If the token manages to hold this support zone, it could attempt a gradual recovery.

In case of a recovery, then traders should keep their eyes on the resistance near $0.0000068.

A breakout above this resistance could then push the price toward the $0.00001 psychological level and beyond that point, additional resistance levels appear around $0.000013, $0.000016, and $0.000022.

A sustained rally could eventually target the $0.000033 region, which some analysts view as a potential long-term upside zone.

On the downside, a clear breakdown below $0.0000054 would likely reinforce the bearish trend.

Such a move could trigger further selling as traders reassess the strength of the current support structure.

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Sen. Cynthia Lummis said US lawmakers are actively exploring how Bitcoin can be used for everyday payments without automatically triggering capital gains tax, framing the issue as a key obstacle to treating the asset as a true medium of exchange.

Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box on March 5, the Wyoming Republican said discussions are underway in both the House and Senate around a potential de minimis exemption, with the figure currently being considered landing “right around $300.”

Congress Eyes Tax-Free Bitcoin Payments Lummis described that threshold as only part of the broader tax problem. The bigger question, she suggested, is not simply where to set a small-transaction exemption, but how Congress should distinguish between a disposal of Bitcoin as an investment asset and the use of Bitcoin as money.

“It’s called the de minimis exemption. And the number that is being looked at by House Ways and Means and Senate Finance is right around $300 as a de minimis exemption,” Lummis said, and added:

“But the challenge is trying to figure out how you can use Bitcoin as a means of exchange without paying a capital gains tax on it. So we’re trying to figure out how to weigh the appropriate way to decide when a sale of, for example, a Bitcoin should be subject to capital gains and when it should be allowed to be used as a simple means of exchange. The same way we use the US dollar.”

That distinction matters. Under the current framework, spending appreciated Bitcoin can create a taxable event, even when the transaction looks economically similar to an ordinary purchase made in dollars. For crypto advocates, that has long been one of the main reasons Bitcoin has struggled to function cleanly as a payments rail in the US, despite its growing acceptance as a store of value and institutional asset.

The exchange on CNBC made clear that Lummis sees the issue less as a niche crypto tax tweak and more as a structural inconsistency in how digital assets are treated. When host Joe Kernen joked that, by similar logic, consumers should be able to claim capital losses as the dollar steadily loses purchasing power, Lummis agreed and leaned into the comparison.

“It’s right because it’s by design the US dollar loses value at 2% or more every year,” she said. “So you’re right. If we did the same thing with the US dollar, all taxpayers would be getting a capital loss annually.”
However, Lummis did not outline a final legislative path, and she did not claim consensus has been reached.

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $70,786.

Bitcoin must close above the 200-week EMA, 1-week chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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Jake Simmons has been a Bitcoin enthusiast since 2016. Ever since he heard about Bitcoin, he has been studying the topic every day and trying to share his knowledge with others. His goal is to contribute to Bitcoin's financial revolution, which will replace the fiat money system. Besides BTC and crypto, Jake studied Business Informatics at a university. After graduation in 2017, he has been working in the blockchain and crypto sector. You can follow Jake on Twitter at @realJakeSimmons.

AI predictions from Grok and ChatGPT have provided insights into how high the Shiba Inu price could rise if Dogecoin hits $10. Notably, such rallies would put the market caps of these meme coins at levels that would need the crypto market cap to reach trillions of dollars for DOGE and SHIB to reach these price levels.

AI Predicts How High Shiba Inu Price Could Reach If Dogecoin Hits $10 Grok made two predictions about how high the Shiba Inu price could reach if Dogecoin hits $10, based on percentage-gain and market-cap-ratio scenarios. A rally to $10 for DOGE is a 105x gain from its current price level. This means that SHIB could rise from its current price level to around $0.00058 if it mirrors a similar percentage gain. This would also give SHIB a market cap of around $340 billion based on its circulating supply of 589 trillion coins. 

ChatGPT also drew the same conclusion, predicting that the Shiba Inu price could rally to $0.0005967 if it grew at the same rate as Dogecoin during its rally to $10. Grok noted that both meme coins could grow at the same rate because they often move in tandem as they are leading meme coins with overlapping communities. Notably, both meme coins also share a positive price correlation of between 0.78 and 0.83. 

Meanwhile, for the market cap ratio scenario, Grok noted that this is more grounded as SHIB has a far higher supply than Dogecoin. SHIB’s current market cap is $3.26 billion, while DOGE’s is $14.3 billion. A rally to $10 would give Dogecoin a $1.5 trillion market cap. If SHIB were to capture 10% of this projected market cap, then the Shiba Inu price could reach a market cap of $150 billion, which equates to a price target of $0.00025. 

Furthermore, the Shiba Inu price could rally to $0.00063 if it captures 25% of Dogecoin’s projected $1.5 trillion market cap. Meanwhile, it would reach $0.00127 and $0.0025 if it captures 50% and 100% of the market cap, respectively. 

Factors That Affect Such Bullish Momentum Grok noted that SHIB’s supply of around 589 trillion tokens makes it harder for the Shiba Inu price to reach such high valuations than Dogecoin, which has an infinite but slower inflation. As such, Shiba Inu will need extreme burns for it to reach these high price targets. Notably, SHIB burns have slowed in recent times due to low demand amid the crypto market downtrend. 

Grok also mentioned that meme coins are volatile and sentiment-driven and that Elon Musk’s tweets, broader crypto bull runs, or hype can cause outsized moves. However, for Dogecoin to reach $10, the AI warned that the meme coin would need unprecedented adoption or utility. Also, the AI noted that past bull runs are no guarantee of how high DOGE and Shiba Inu prices could rise, as correlations can break across different market phases.

SHIB trading at $0.0000055 on the 1D chart | Source: SHIBUSDT on Tradingview.com Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

Ripple is partnered with Coinbase, enabling access to regulated crypto derivatives for Ripple Prime users. While users can access Coinbase futures tied to Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana, including nano-sized contracts. Ripple is expanding its institutional trading capabilities by providing users with access to regulated crypto derivatives contracts on Coinbase’s derivatives exchange, which are cleared by Nodal Clear. The connection enables users to trade futures based on key cryptocurrencies within a regulated clearing system.

According to the reports, Ripple Prime members now have access to nano Bitcoin and nano Ethereum futures, as well as contracts for XRP and Solana. “These offerings are all available 24/7 in a CFTC-regulated environment, allowing for precise risk management and global market access.” 

Ripple Joins Nodal Clear, Expands Coinbase Futures Access When Ripple acquired Hidden Road Partners CIV US LLC, a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM), last year, which facilitates access to Coinbase derivatives, the company is now a part of the Ripple Prime platform. It is an institutional platform that offers financing, clearing, and multi-asset prime brokerage services, and more than $3 trillion in transactions were cleared by the platform in 2025, which shows its expanding influence in institutional markets.

As part of its ambition to increase institutional derivatives access through deeper integration with the regulated clearing environment, Ripple has made it possible for its clients to access futures listed on Coinbase by becoming a clearing member of Nodal Clear. 

Also, Noel Kimmel, President of Ripple Prime, said, “We are pleased to partner with Nodal Clear and Coinbase as we continue to expand our exchange coverage and bring new futures trading opportunities to our clients.”

Ripple Earlier Expanded Into DeFi Derivatives Before this, in early February, Ripple Prime started trading and margining on Hyperliquid, which made its first connection to a decentralized trading venue that gave access to perpetual futures and other derivatives at the time of managing exposure, along with FX, fixed income, OTC swaps, and cleared products. 

Therefore, the latest additions highlight Ripple’s larger initiative to improve the capabilities of its Ripple Prime platform and increase institutional derivatives access in both decentralized and centralized ways.

Highlighted Crypto News Today: 

Crypto Prices Race Back as US Job Growth and Unemployment Rate Expected to Remain Steady

At 8:30 a.m. EST, bitcoin traded at $69,926 on March 6, 2026, with a market cap of roughly $1.39 trillion and about $48 billion in 24-hour trading volume.

Key Takeaways Table of Contents

Key TakeawaysJudge Issues Temporary Restraining Order on Bitcoin HoldingsCrypto Platform Struggles with Financial PressuresAsset Dispute Highlights Systemic Industry Challenges Federal judge orders immediate freeze on 70.6 Bitcoin connected to BlockFills platform

Dominion Capital initiates legal action seeking recovery of 70.6 BTC from BlockFills

Crypto trading platform prevented from moving 70.6 Bitcoin during ongoing litigation

BlockFills confronts mounting challenges following 70.6 BTC asset freeze order

Restraining order on 70.6 Bitcoin amplifies difficulties for embattled crypto firm

A federal judge in the United States has issued an order preventing BlockFills from transferring 70.6 Bitcoin as the cryptocurrency trading platform faces a significant legal challenge. The restraining order immobilizes these digital assets while Dominion Capital pursues its claims through the judicial system. This development compounds existing difficulties for BlockFills, which recently suspended customer withdrawals and experienced substantial financial setbacks.

Judge Issues Temporary Restraining Order on Bitcoin Holdings Federal Judge Mary Kay Vyskocil granted a temporary restraining order specifically targeting 70.6 Bitcoin under BlockFills’ control. The judicial directive prohibits any movement or international transfer of these cryptocurrency holdings. Additionally, the court mandated complete segregation between client funds and company assets, along with comprehensive documentation of all Dominion Capital positions.

Dominion Capital submitted its legal complaint on February 27 through the Southern District of New York. The filing alleges that BlockFills improperly held onto client cryptocurrency and mixed various account balances to cover trading deficits. Based on these allegations, the judge authorized the asset freeze to safeguard the 70.6 Bitcoin from potential dispersal.

This temporary restriction continues in force until the court conducts its next scheduled hearing. BlockFills must furnish complete documentation showing where the 70.6 Bitcoin is held and its current condition. The platform faces a March 17 deadline for its official response unless the court modifies the timeline.

Crypto Platform Struggles with Financial Pressures The cryptocurrency exchange suspended all customer withdrawals starting February 11 following intense market turbulence that depleted available liquidity. Company officials attributed the operational difficulties to Bitcoin’s decline approaching $60,000 levels. The withdrawal suspension, however, triggered increased examination of the platform’s financial oversight and asset management practices.

Company assessments indicated losses reaching approximately $75 million throughout the market downturn period. Institutional customers began questioning whether their deposited assets maintained full backing on the exchange. The controversy surrounding the 70.6 Bitcoin surfaced during this turbulent financial episode.

Significant personnel shifts occurred as co-founder Nicholas Hammer departed from his position as chief executive. Joseph Perry took over leadership responsibilities on an interim basis while the organization worked toward operational stability. Financial restructuring advisors have cautioned that bankruptcy proceedings may become necessary without swift financial improvement.

Asset Dispute Highlights Systemic Industry Challenges Dominion Capital aims to reclaim the 70.6 Bitcoin that it maintains was improperly withheld by the trading platform. The court’s restraining order guarantees these Bitcoin holdings remain secured pending judicial examination of competing ownership assertions. This legal safeguard maintains the contested cryptocurrency intact throughout the litigation process.

The platform provided services to approximately 2,000 institutional clients, including hedge funds and investment management firms. Trading volume exceeded $60 billion throughout 2025 according to company figures. Nevertheless, operational breakdowns have sparked wider concerns regarding asset safekeeping and corporate disclosure practices.

This legal proceeding underscores persistent vulnerabilities within centralized cryptocurrency lending and exchange operations. Litigation involving substantial digital asset reserves continues influencing regulatory and oversight conversations. Resolution of the frozen 70.6 Bitcoin situation awaits forthcoming court proceedings and financial transparency reports.

Oliver Dale

Editor-in-Chief of Blockonomi and founder of Kooc Media, A UK-Based Online Media Company. Believer in Open-Source Software, Blockchain Technology & a Free and Fair Internet for all. His writing has been quoted by Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Investopedia, The New Yorker, Forbes, Techcrunch & More. Contact [email protected]

Strike secures New York BitLicense, opening bitcoin financial services to state residentsNYDFS approval allows the Bitcoin payments company to offer trading, bill pay and custody products across New York. Mar 6, 2026, 12:05 p.m.

Strike received a BitLicense and money transmitter license from the New York State Department of Financial Services, clearing the way for the bitcoin BTC$70,108.81 financial services firm to operate in the state.

“Receiving our BitLicense is a defining milestone for Strike,” said Jack Mallers, founder and CEO of Strike. “With our BitLicense, we can now bring that mission to New York, the global center of finance.”

Strike’s entry into New York is part of its expansion plans outlined in November 2025, when Mallers said his platform would add bitcoin-backed lending to allow users to borrow fiat currency while continuing to hold their bitcoin. The move would place Strike in a sector that saw several high-profile failures in 2022, when lenders including BlockFi, Celsius and Genesis filed for bankruptcy during the crypto market downturn.

The approval, announced Thursday, allows Strike to offer its products to individuals and businesses across New York, one of the most tightly regulated digital asset markets in the U.S. The company can now provide services that include buying and selling bitcoin, salary deposits converted into bitcoin and bill payments made from a bitcoin balance.

Strike can also offer tools such as recurring purchases and price-triggered orders that execute trades when bitcoin reaches a set level. Users can also convert up to 100% of direct-deposited wages into bitcoin, with conversion fees waived on deposits up to $20,000 each month.

Strike said customer bitcoin and cash balances remain held one-to-one and are not lent or used for company operations.

The license places the company under the New York State Department of Financial Services’ supervision, which includes audits, capital reserve rules and cybersecurity examinations.

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