Market Signal Briefing

Pi Network’s native token extended last weekend’s volatile stretch on Monday, albeit not in the direction that investors had expected. After a brief rally that took the token on a 25% run, Pi coin fell about 15% over 24 hours, before reversing some of the losses to minimize the drop. 

Over the weekend, the Pi token touched $0.1985, its highest price since January 20, when it struggled to maintain its upward momentum amid the market-wide correction. Pi was among the weakest performers during that period, repeatedly setting new lows, including a decline to $0.1312 on February 11.

Pi coin Sunday rally comes to a halt, profits shedding continues Looking at the intraday price chart, the Pi Coin Sunday rally occurred amid a mandatory Mainnet node upgrade deadline. After the upgrade window passed, an en masse selling session saw holders lock in profits they had gained from “buying the news.” 

Sunday trading had seen Pi jump more than 30% in a single day and over 55% from its recent all-time low, creating conditions for a pullback once the catalyst faded.

PiScan wallet activity for centralized exchanges shows investors are dropping more coins into exchanges, which could mean the selling pressure has not yet settled. An uptick in exchange balances signals short-term selling pressure, as tokens moved onto trading platforms are readily available for liquidation. 

Seychelles-based trading platform OKX recorded the highest inflows of about 4.33 million PI, against outflows of 1.48 million PI, for a positive netflow of 2.84 million PI. Bitget had the opposite pattern, logging 861,134 PI token entries and 2.37 million PI withdrawals, resulting in a net outflow of 1.51 million PI. 

MEXC posted modest net inflows of around 442,961 PI, while Gate.io registered a stronger positive balance change exceeding 1.09 million PI. 

All CEXs tracked by PiScan recorded total inflows of approximately 7.86 million PI, compared with 4.97 million PI in outflows. The aggregate net flow stood near 2.89 million PI entering exchanges.

Pi Network starts node upgrade timeline This update is a part of a planned roadmap that aims to increase the number of validators and enhance the distributed ledger technology on which the Pi ecosystem is embedded.

The Pi Core development team explained that nodes are integral in validating transactions in the blockchain. Their function is to ensure all participants reach consensus on transaction order while preserving the integrity of the ledger.

Pi uses a consensus mechanism derived from the Stellar Consensus Protocol, in which nodes form trusted clusters known as quorum slices and approve transactions only when those trusted peers agree.

Network operators are required to wait for confirmation of system-wide completion at each stage before proceeding, to reduce any chances of fragmentation during the rollout.

According to Pi Coin community member amrOnChain, the February 15 upgrade deadline covered version 19.6. Upcoming deadlines include February 27 and March 12, while other upgrades will be revealed after the earlier phases are finalized. The development team has advised participants not to attempt installing any future updates before an official announcement.

🧵PI NODE PROTOCOL UPGRADE GUIDE: THE COMPLETE BREAKDOWN! 🧵

The path from v19 to v23 is set. Every node operator needs to understand this. Let's dive in. 👇#PiNetwork #NodeUpgrade #Protocolv23 #Mainnet pic.twitter.com/P65yGmQUr0

— amrOnChain (@amr_nannaware) February 13, 2026

Pi token holders will be hoping that the $0.15-$0.16 technical support range holds, as the token risks dropping further to $0.12 if selling pressure persists. Some market watchers predict the token to fluctuate between $0.16 and $0.20 after the market digests the 24-hour downward-bound volatility. 

Prospera, a Zone for Employment and Economic Development (ZEDE) in Honduras that uses bitcoin as legal tender, faces uncertainty about its future after the highest court declared the framework that created it unconstitutional.

Onchain analyst and early Bitcoin adopter Willy Woo is warning that growing attention to quantum computing risks is starting to weigh on Bitcoin’s long-term valuation case against gold.

Woo argued in a Monday X post that markets had begun to price in the risk of a future “Q‑Day” breakthrough — shorthand for the moment when a powerful enough quantum computer exists to break today’s public key cryptography.

Roughly 4 million “lost” Bitcoin (BTC) — coins whose private keys are presumed gone — could be dragged back into play, Woo argued, if a powerful quantum computer could derive private keys from exposed public keys, undermining part of Bitcoin’s core scarcity narratives.

He estimated only about a 25% chance that the network would agree to freeze those coins via a hard fork, one of the most contentious issues in Bitcoin governance today.

Q‑day risk and “lost” coinsAccording to blockchain researchers, the 4 million exposed coins represent around 25%-30% of the Bitcoin supply and are held in addresses whose public keys are already visible onchain, making them among the first at risk in a quantum attack scenario.

Yet any move to freeze these coins would upend long‑standing norms around fungibility, immutability and property rights.

Freezing the coins could provoke deep splits between those prioritizing backward‑compatible fixes (upgrades that preserve existing rules and coins without invalidating past transactions or requiring a contentious hard fork), and those willing to rewrite rules to protect early balances.

With a 75% likelihood of the coins remaining untouched, investors should assume, Woo said, a non‑trivial probability that an amount of BTC equivalent to roughly “8 years of enterprise accumulation” becomes spendable again.

It’s a prospect that is already being priced in as a structural discount on BTC’s valuation versus gold for the next five to 15 years, Woo argued, meaning that Bitcoin’s long‑term tendency to gain purchasing power when measured in ounces of gold is no longer in play.

BTC vs Gold Chart Price and Ratio. Source: BitboBitcoin’s post‑quantum migration pathMany core developers and cryptographers stress that Bitcoin does not face an imminent “doomsday” situation and has time to adapt.

The emerging roadmap for a post‑quantum migration is not a single emergency hard fork, they argue, but a phased process, eventually steering the network toward new address formats and key management practices over a multi‑year transition. 

Even if quantum did arrive sooner than expected and the coins were recirculated, other Bitcoiners, such as Human Rights Foundation chief strategy officer Alex Gladstein, argue that it is unlikely they would be dumped onto the market. 

Gladstein sees a more likely scenario where the coins are accumulated by a nation-state rather than immediately sold.

Quantum risk goes mainstream in macroStill, Woo’s warning lands in a market where Bitcoin is trading almost 50% off its all-time high, and quantum has already moved from a niche concern to a mainstream risk factor in institutional portfolios.

In January, Jefferies’ longtime “Greed & Fear” strategist Christopher Wood cut Bitcoin from his flagship model portfolio and rotated the position into gold, explicitly citing the possibility that “cryptographically relevant” quantum machines could weaken Bitcoin’s store of value case for pension‑style investors. 

Magazine: Kevin O’Leary says quantum attacking Bitcoin would be a waste of time

​

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XRP Ledger Draws Interest from Mastercard, BlackRock & Franklin TempletonRising interest in the XRP Ledger from major financial institutions is spotlighting its expanding role in digital assets. 

A senior XRPL Commons executive recently indicated that large institutions are actively evaluating the technology, highlighting a deepening link between traditional finance and blockchain infrastructure.

Speaking in a recent interview at the Digital Assets Forum, Odelia Torteman, Director of Corporate Adoption at XRPL Commons, confirmed that global institutions are evaluating the XRP Ledger for real-world financial applications. 

When asked directly whether firms such as Mastercard, BlackRock, and Franklin Templeton had expressed interest, her response was clear: “Absolutely.”

This endorsement is timely as banks, asset managers, and payment firms face mounting pressure to upgrade cross-border payments, settlement rails, and asset issuance. Blockchain solutions offer faster speeds, lower costs, and greater transparency than many legacy systems—where even marginal efficiency gains can mean major savings at global scale.

Meanwhile, Ripple has reportedly removed a key barrier for banks on the XRP Ledger, a development seen as bullish for unlocking billions in potential institutional flows.

Why XRP Ledger Is Emerging as a Serious Contender for Global Financial InfrastructureTorteman emphasized that the XRP Ledger was purpose-built for financial services, not retrofitted later, focusing on cross-asset payments, transparent flows, real-world asset tokenization, and institutional-grade settlement. 

That design positions it as potential core infrastructure for digital finance, not just a speculative network. Recent payment volumes climbing to 1.88 million further underscore its accelerating real-world adoption.

Central to XRP’s vision is its role as a bridge currency, enabling fast, efficient transfers between different currencies and tokenized assets. For institutions, this could minimize the need to pre-fund accounts globally. With the White House Digital Assets Advisor forecasting mainstream tokenization within 1–3 years, the XRP Ledger stands to benefit significantly.

Well, Expressions of interest may not guarantee adoption, but they often spark pilots, partnerships, and integration. If major institutions act, blockchain-based settlement rails could see rapid mainstream uptake. 

Therefore, Torteman’s remarks underscore a clear trend that traditional finance is actively exploring, not just observing, how networks like the XRP Ledger could shape the future of global finance.

ConclusionMastercard, BlackRock, and Franklin Templeton’s growing interest signals that the XRP Ledger is shifting from speculation to enterprise-grade adoption. 

As a bridge currency on a decentralized network, XRP could streamline cross-border payments, tokenization, and institutional settlements. While still early, major institutional attention highlights XRPL’s potential as a foundational infrastructure for global finance.

If Bitcoin is not able to go beyond the $69,500 resistance zone, it could witness another decline.  The major support is at $66,500, and if the price goes below this, then BTC might struggle to recover in the near term.  The price of Bitcoin hasn’t been successful in being stable over the $70,000 mark. It started declining and traded below the $69,200 support zone. Also, at the time of writing, it is exchanging hands at $68,296.87. 

The price went below the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward shift from the $65,072 swing low to the $70,935 high.  At the same time, there was a break below the bullish trend line having support at $69,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. 

With the price being at $68,296.87, the price remains stable above the $68,000 level and gives hope for another attempt at a fresh increase. The immediate resistance resides around the $68,800 level.

The Resistance and Support Zones  Talking about the first key resistance, it is at $69,500, and a close above the $69,500 resistance might push the price higher. In the given situation, the price could move further to test the $70,000 resistance. 

Any further gains will send the price towards the $70,500 level. The other obstacle for the bulls could be either $72,000 or $72,500. If Bitcoin is not able to go beyond the $69,500 resistance zone, it could witness another decline, and the first support is around the $68,200 level. 

After which, the other and the major support is at the $68,000 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $65,072 swing low to the $70,935 high. The third support level is now around the $67,350 zone, and any further losses than this can take the price to the $67,350 support in the near future. 

The major support is at $66,500, and if the price goes below this, then BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. 

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Tokenized US Treasuries are close to $11 billion, but the chain war is shifting from issuance to distribution and utility. Where yield tokens actually sit, how often they move, and whether they plug into stablecoin settlement and collateral workflows are what matters.

Last week, XRP Ledger (XRPL) got two signals that it's trying to matter in that “venue” fight.

First, Aviva Investors said it's partnering with Ripple to tokenize traditional fund structures on the XRP Ledger, framing tokenization as moving from experiments to “large-scale production” over the next decade.

Second, OpenEden's TBILL token supply is skewed toward XRPL: more of the supply resides there than on Ethereum.

Yet the early activity data raises a harder question: is XRPL becoming a real RWA venue, or just another issuance endpoint while trading and collateral gravity remain on Ethereum and layer 2s?

Tokenized T-bills here mean tokenized fund shares or vault tokens backed by short-dated US Treasuries, held and transferred on-chain.

Stablecoins matter because they're the cash leg for subscriptions and redemptions and the settlement rail that makes “24/7 treasury liquidity” plausible.

This story tests three credibility checks to decide whether XRPL is seeing a real venue shift or a narrative spike: issuance, distribution and usage, and financial utility.

Three credibility testsCredibility concerns whether regulated issuers and asset managers are actually choosing XRPL over crypto-native firms.

Distribution and usage ponder whether meaningful balances and transfers live on XRPL, instead of just “launched on XRPL” headlines.

Financial utility assesses whether these assets are used for settlement and collateral flows or are mostly parked.

Collateral is where “venue” becomes durable.

Aviva and OpenEdenAviva Investors and Ripple announced a partnership to tokenize traditional fund structures on XRPL.

The companies explicitly position it as multi-year work “over 2026 and beyond.” Aviva describes “tokenized funds” and “traditional fund structures,” not “T-bills only.” This matters because it's an institutional distribution narrative as much as a specific product narrative.

What success would look like: a named tokenized fund product goes live with prospectus, terms, and eligible investors. Additionally, a growing holder base on XRPL beyond single-digit wallets, and repeated transfer volume consistent with settlement, not just mint-and-sit.

Right now, Aviva's commitment is a partnership intention and a multi-year build, not a launched fund on XRPL today.

OpenEden's TBILL vault token is explicitly a T-bill-backed vault token, consisting of short-dated US Treasuries with 1:1 backing, tracked on RWA.xyz.

TBILL's circulating supply is 54.41 million on XRPL, 32.02 million on Ethereum, and smaller amounts on Solana and Arbitrum. That's roughly 62.6% of TBILL supply sitting on XRPL.

However, usage is the tell. In the same dataset, TBILL's monthly transfer volume is $200 on XRPL, $3.09 million on Ethereum, and $3.62 million on Arbitrum. That's roughly 0.003% of TBILL's monthly transfer volume happening on XRPL.

It's a clean example of “issued and held here” versus “moved and used there.” This is an early indicator, not “XRPL wins.” It can signal controlled distribution, custody preferences, or just low on-chain velocity.

Chart showing XRPL holds 62.6% of TBILL token supply but accounts for only 0.003% of monthly transfer volume, while Ethereum and Arbitrum dominate actual usage.XRPL scoreboardThe tokenized Treasuries market size across all chains is $10.7 billion, per RWA.xyz.

XRPL's share of tokenized treasury value is most clearly reflected in TBILL: XRPL holds 54.41 million of the 86.90 million circulating tokens, representing about 62.6% of the TBILL supply.

Ondo's footprint on XRPL also appears as a meaningful platform line item on the XRPL network table and is up sharply over 30 days, but that's venue momentum, not category dominance.

Stablecoin settlement rails on XRPL show a stablecoin market cap of roughly $424.9 million, up 6.65% over 30 days, and a monthly stablecoin transfer volume of over $1 billion in January, up 34.3%.

Secondary activity for treasury tokens is the venue test. TBILL's total monthly transfer volume is $6.76 million, and the chain split is extremely uneven.

The question is whether these tokens are actually moving, not just where they're minted.

MetricLatest30D changeWhy it mattersSourceTokenized U.S. Treasuries total value (category size)$10.00B (as of 01/28/2026)N/A (public view shows 7D: +2.53%)Sets the TAM for the “venue war”: a large enough category that custody/settlement venues start to matter.RWA.xyz “Tokenized U.S. Treasuries.” (RWA.xyz)XRPL distributed RWA value$422.95M (as of 02/12/2026)+54.76%Measures whether XRPL is becoming a real home for non-stablecoin RWAs (inventory living on-chain).RWA.xyz XRPL network page. (RWA.xyz)XRPL stablecoin market cap$424.87M (as of 02/12/2026)+6.65%Stablecoins are the cash leg—without them, tokenized T-bills can’t be a settlement venue at scale.RWA.xyz XRPL network page. (RWA.xyz)XRPL stablecoin 30D transfer volume$1.19B (as of 02/12/2026)+57.52%“Venue” requires flow, not just balances—this is the best quick proxy for settlement activity on XRPL.RWA.xyz XRPL network page. (RWA.xyz)TBILL supply share on XRPL54.41M / 86.90M ≈ 62.6%—Shows where treasury-token inventory sits (distribution/custody footprint).RWA.xyz TBILL token table (XRPL + total circulating supply). (RWA.xyz)TBILL activity share on XRPL$200 / $6,759,808 ≈ 0.003%—The cleanest “utility” test: if it doesn’t move, XRPL is an issuance/parking venue, not a trading/settlement venue.RWA.xyz TBILL monthly transfer volume (XRPL + total). (RWA.xyz)Issuer credibility signalAviva Investors + Ripple intend to tokenize traditional fund structures on XRPL (announced Feb 11, 2026)—Answers the first credibility test: a major asset manager is signaling XRPL as a target venue (even if product launch is still future-tense).Aviva Investors press release. (avivainvestors.com)XRPL vs. Ethereum layer 2s countercaseXRPL's distribution-first posture shows up in how Aviva and Ripple pitch the ledger: “built-in compliance tools” and near-instant settlement, language that reads like regulated distribution more than DeFi composability.

That framing matters if institutions prioritize operational simplicity and predictable execution over deep liquidity pools.

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XRPL already centers on payments, and the natural bundle is stablecoins as the cash leg and treasury tokens as the yield leg.

If institutions prefer “boring rails” first, a venue can win by minimizing moving parts, such as custody, compliance, predictable execution, even if DeFi depth is thinner early on.

However, liquidity gravity is real. Tokenized treasuries become “venues” when they can be swapped against stablecoins and routed through institutional market makers at scale.

Uniswap Labs and Securitize's Feb. 11 integration to make BlackRock's BUIDL tradable on UniswapX is the Ethereum and layer-2 thesis in one announcement.

Ethereum's advantage is that it already has the most mature on-chain liquidity infrastructure, and layer 2s are inheriting that depth while reducing costs.

The collateral loop is the moat. Tokenized treasuries are increasingly discussed as collateral in the broader financial system.

Reuters reported that the Bank of England is exploring broader acceptance of tokenized assets as collateral, and that the European Central Bank is planning around the timing of tokenized collateral.

Ethereum's advantage is that it already has the most mature collateral plumbing, and institutions building settlement and lending flows are defaulting to where the infrastructure already exists.

The fork to name explicitly: Is XRPL choosing “regulated distribution” over “composable finance,” and can that win meaningfully in tokenized treasuries?

If the answer is yes, XRPL becomes a custody and compliance venue where assets sit but don't move much on-chain. If the answer is no, XRPL needs to build liquidity and collateral depth fast, which means competing directly with Ethereum's existing infrastructure.

Scatter plot showing Ethereum dominates both stablecoin infrastructure and RWA distribution, while XRPL has low stablecoin adoption and modest RWA positioning compared to competing chains.Hype or shift potential? The 30-to-90-day watchlistA glimpse of a potential venue shift could emerge over the next 30 to 90 days if XRPL's treasury-token transfer volumes rise materially and chain-level activity starts to match the balances.

TBILL is the stress test. Stablecoin settlement on XRPL continues to scale, with transfer volume growth tracking supply growth, supporting “cash leg plus yield leg” behavior.

A second regulated issuer follows Aviva, or Aviva progresses from “intention” to a live tokenized fund product with measurable holders.

However, it becomes hype if balances are static, holder counts remain small, and activity remains elsewhere. For example, if TBILL moves on Ethereum and layer 2s while remaining on XRPL.

The watchlist is printable: TBILL chain transfer share, XRPL stablecoin 30-day transfer volume, XRPL “distributed asset value” trend, and any Aviva follow-through disclosures.

Right now, the signals are mixed. XRPL has supply skew and stablecoin momentum, but usage is overwhelmingly elsewhere. Aviva is a credible institutional partner, but the commitment is multi-year intent, not a live product.

The next 90 days will show whether XRPL is building a real venue or just hosting another issuance narrative, while the actual settlement and collateral flows occur on Ethereum and layer 2s.

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Ramil Ventura Palafox got slammed with 20 years behind bars. The 61-year-old dual US-Philippines citizen ran Praetorian Group International like his personal piggy bank, stealing over $200 million from roughly 90,000 people who thought they were getting rich off Bitcoin trades.

Palafox basically told everyone PGI was some kind of Bitcoin trading wizard that could deliver daily returns between 0.5% and 3%. Pretty wild promises, right? He set up the whole thing as a multi-level marketing deal, which should’ve been the first red flag for anyone paying attention. But people kept throwing money at him from December 2019 through October 2021. We’re talking $30.3 million in regular cash plus around 8,198 Bitcoin worth $171.5 million back then.

The math didn’t work. Never did.

Turns out PGI wasn’t trading Bitcoin at all – just moving money from new victims to pay off older ones. Classic Ponzi scheme stuff. Palafox created this fake online portal that showed investors their accounts were growing like crazy. People saw these bogus numbers and figured they were making bank, so they kept investing more. The portal ran from 2020 to 2021, and it fooled pretty much everyone who used it.

Meanwhile, Palafox was living it up. Guy dropped $3 million on fancy cars – Porsches, Lamborghinis, the whole deal. Then he bought penthouses and houses in Las Vegas and Los Angeles for over $6 million. And that’s not even counting the $3 million he blew on designer clothes and watches from places like Gucci and Rolex.

He also moved $800,000 and 100 Bitcoin to a family member. Smart move, except investigators caught that too.

The damage was huge. Investors lost more than $62 million when everything collapsed. The Justice Department said victims might get some money back through restitution, but that process isn’t done yet. Nobody knows how much people will actually recover.

The UK stepped in back in 2022 and shut down PGI Global’s British operation. Then in April 2025, the SEC charged Palafox with running the Ponzi scheme. More legal trouble keeps piling up for the guy.

Court records show Palafox’s network stretched across multiple continents. He had victims in North America, Europe, and Asia – basically anywhere people had Bitcoin and wanted more of it. The FBI spent months unraveling all his fake trading records and manipulated financial statements. Pretty sophisticated operation for a scam. Related coverage: SafeMoon Ex-CEO Gets Eight Years Behind.

Assistant Attorney General Kenneth Polite Jr. said schemes like this exploit people’s trust and cause serious damage beyond just the money. He’s right – lots of victims are dealing with stress and anxiety about their financial futures. Some people invested their life savings.

Sarah Thompson, one of the victims, went public with her story about losing everything she’d saved up. The Justice Department knows these psychological impacts matter too, and they’re factoring that into restitution talks.

Civil lawsuits are starting to pop up against Palafox and PGI. Law firms representing groups of investors filed cases in multiple states, trying to get compensation for their clients. These cases could change how much money victims eventually see.

SEC Chair Gary Gensler keeps saying the agency won’t tolerate fraud in the crypto space. The SEC’s involvement here sends a message to anyone thinking about pulling similar stunts. They’re watching.

Asset recovery is the big focus now. Authorities are tracking down money and property linked to Palafox’s scheme. It’s complicated work that involves agencies from different countries, since the fraud crossed borders. How well they do with recovery will determine how much victims actually get back.

The restitution process remains murky. The Justice Department didn’t give specifics about timing or amounts. Victims are stuck waiting to see what happens next. Some might get a decent chunk of their money back, others probably won’t see much. That’s how these things usually go. Related coverage: Young Crypto Fraudster Gets 375-Year Prison.

Palafox’s sentencing wraps up one part of this mess, but the fallout continues. The FBI investigation revealed just how deep the deception went – fake records, manipulated statements, the whole nine yards. He didn’t just steal money; he built an entire fake business to do it.

The 20-year sentence sends a clear message about crypto fraud. Federal prosecutors are taking these cases seriously, especially when they involve this much money and this many victims. Palafox won’t be getting out anytime soon.

Asset forfeiture proceedings are still moving forward. Authorities want to grab everything they can that’s connected to the fraud. Properties, bank accounts, whatever’s left. The more they recover, the better chance victims have of getting something back.

The case shows how easy it is for scammers to exploit people’s excitement about cryptocurrency. High returns sound great until you realize they’re impossible. Palafox counted on that greed, and it worked for almost two years before everything fell apart.

The Ponzi scheme landscape has shifted dramatically since cryptocurrency entered the picture. Federal prosecutors have charged over 150 crypto-related fraud cases since 2019, with total losses exceeding $3.8 billion according to Justice Department data. Bitcoin’s price volatility creates perfect cover for these scams – when legitimate crypto investments swing wildly, fake returns don’t look suspicious.

Palafox’s operation mirrors other major crypto frauds like BitConnect and OneCoin, which collectively bilked investors out of billions. The FBI’s Cyber Division now dedicates entire task forces to tracking cryptocurrency fraud, working with international partners to freeze assets before scammers can move them offshore. Recovery rates remain low though – most victims in similar cases get back less than 30 cents per dollar lost.

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Solana price is catching its breath after a ferocious multi‑month rally, slipping back toward the mid‑$80s as traders reassess how much upside is left in one of this cycle’s most aggressive beta plays. The pullback is sharp, but it is not disorderly; it looks like a market that simply ran too far, too fast.

Summary

Solana price slips toward the mid-$80s after an aggressive multi-month run, with YCharts showing a near 56% drawdown from a year ago. Polymarket contracts still price meaningful odds of SOL above $160 and even new all-time highs by end-2026, highlighting a wide distribution of outcomes. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices frame Solana inside a broader macro risk-on tape, with high Solana volumes keeping liquidity conditions supportive. Solana price cools, prediction markets stay bold As of early U.S. trading, Solana (SOL) changes hands around $86.07, down 4.4% on the session, after trading near $90.03 24 hours ago. Perplexity Finance data show a 24‑hour range between roughly $84.41 and $86.57, with spot market cap hovering near $48.55B and volumes around $57.32M. YCharts puts Solana’s daily reference price at $85.94 for February 16, down from $88.16 yesterday and dramatically below roughly $194.43 a year ago, a drawdown of about 55.8%.

Despite that drawdown, prediction markets have not written Solana off. A Polymarket market asking whether Solana will hit a fresh all‑time high by December 31, 2026, prices that probability near 16%, while a separate contract on “What price will Solana hit in 2026?” shows traders assigning roughly 32% odds to SOL trading above $160 before year‑end 2026. In that market, downside brackets such as “↓ 60” and “↓ 40” still command substantial probability, underscoring that “the path to new highs is anything but linear.”

Macro risk lens and wider crypto tape This recalibration comes as digital assets continue to trade as the purest expression of macro risk appetite. Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering around $68,000–$69,000, with 24‑hour highs just above $69,000 and lows near $68,150, on roughly $37.8B in trading volume across major BTC/USD venues. Ethereum (ETH) changes hands close to $1,970–$1,975, after printing a 24‑hour high near $2,095.87 and a low around $1,933.97, with market cap near $237B. Solana (SOL) itself trades in the mid‑$80s, with Metamask data putting spot near $85.43 and 24‑hour volumes approaching $9.75B, a sign that “high 24h volume… improves liquidity and reduces slippage for traders.

Solana RWA tokenization efforts intensify Solana’s RWA tokenization value smashing the 1.66 billion dollar mark reinforces the chain’s narrative as real financial infrastructure, not just a speculative L1, and that matters for SOL’s future pricing power. As more real-world assets settle and trade on Solana, fee revenue, demand for blockspace, and (crucially) the incentive to hold SOL for staking and governance all scale with it, giving fundamentals a chance to catch up with and eventually justify higher valuations in the next risk-on phase.

Crypto investment products failed to attract enough inflows last week to reverse negative sentiment and clocked a fourth consecutive week of outflows.

Crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) recorded $173 million in outflows, following the previous week’s $187 million, according to a CoinShares update on Monday.

Although the last two weeks brought relatively minor losses, total outflows over the past four weeks now amount to about $3.8 billion, while total assets under management (AUM) stand at about $133 billion, the lowest since April 2025.

CoinShares’ head of research, James Butterfill, attributed last week’s outflows to broad market negativity and ongoing price weakness. After starting last week at $70,000, Bitcoin (BTC) briefly dropped as low as $65,000 on Thursday, according to Coinbase data.

Bitcoin leads outflows, while XRP and Solana buck the trendBitcoin ETPs drove last week’s negative sentiment, with outflows totaling $133.3 million and AUM declining to about $106 billion.

US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) painted an even bleaker picture, with outflows approaching $360 million last week, according to SoSoValue data.

Weekly crypto ETP flows by asset as of Friday (in millions of US dollars). Source: CoinSharesEchoing Bitcoin’s trend, Ether (ETH) funds recorded $85 million in outflows, though US spot Ether ETFs saw modest inflows of $10 million.

XRP (XRP) and Solana (SOL) ETPs bucked the trend, emerging as the top performers with inflows of $33.4 million and $31 million, respectively.

US crypto products saw more than $400 million in outflowsButterfill highlighted a significant divergence in sentiment between the US and other regions.

While US crypto investment products saw $403 million in outflows, all other regions recorded sizable inflows totaling $230 million.

Weekly crypto ETP flows by country as of Friday (in millions of US dollars). Source: CoinSharesGermany, Canada and Switzerland saw the largest gains, with inflows of $115 million, $46 million and $37 million, respectively.

The outflows came amid Standard Chartered analysts officially lowering their 2026 Bitcoin target from $150,000 to $100,000 last week, while forecasting the crypto asset to drop to $50,000 before recovering.

Magazine: Did a Hong Kong fund kill Bitcoin? Bithumb’s ‘phantom’ BTC: Asia Express

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy

4 US Economic Signals That Could Move Bitcoin in the President’s Day Holiday Week Prefer us on Google

FOMC minutes may shift rate-cut expectations.Jobless claims signal labor strength or slowdown.GDP and PCE data could spark Bitcoin volatility.Bitcoin is entering a pivotal macro week as it hovers near $68,600 on February 16, 2026. After a volatile start to the year, including a sharp retracement from 2025 highs above $126,000, markets remain highly sensitive to US economic data.

Tariff tensions, sticky inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause rate cuts have kept risk assets on edge. With US markets closed Monday for Presidents’ Day, liquidity is thinner than usual, a factor that could amplify volatility once major data begins midweek.

US Economic Data Crypto Traders Must Watch This WeekTraders are focused on four key releases: the January FOMC minutes on Wednesday, initial jobless claims on Thursday, and Friday’s Q4 GDP revision alongside December PCE inflation.

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US Economic Data to Watch This Week. Source: Market WatchAccording to CME FedWatch data, markets are pricing just 9.8% odds of a March rate cut, reflecting skepticism that easing is imminent.

March Interest Rate Cut Probabilities. Source: CME FedWatch ToolIn this environment, even modest surprises could determine whether Bitcoin tests $70,000 resistance or revisits the $60,000 support zone.

FOMC Minutes The release of the January FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee)minutes will likely set the week’s tone.

The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% during its last meeting, signaling caution amid resilient growth and persistent services inflation.

FOMC minutes on Wednesday will provide deeper insight into policymakers’ internal debates, particularly around inflation risks, labor strength, and tariff-related pressures.

A hawkish tone emphasizing sticky inflation or upside risks could reinforce “higher for longer” expectations. Historically, similar signals have triggered 3–5% Bitcoin pullbacks within 24 hours as Treasury yields rise and liquidity expectations tighten.

Conversely, any language suggesting balanced risks or growing concern over slowing growth could revive rate-cut speculation.

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In holiday-thinned trading conditions, even subtle dovish cues may be enough to push Bitcoin toward $70,000.

Initial Jobless ClaimsThursday’s jobless claims report offers a real-time snapshot of labor market health, a core pillar of the Fed’s dual mandate.

Consensus expects roughly 220,000 new filings for the week ending February 14, down from 227,000 previously.

BREAKING: Preliminary US Initial Jobless Claims for 1st week of February: 227,000, down 5,000, but above market expectations of 222,000.

The increase could be attributed to business disruptions from winter storms, which prompted households to apply for unemployment benefits.… pic.twitter.com/TvB8olOII0

— Truflation (@truflation) February 12, 2026 A reading below 210,000 would reinforce labor resilience and reduce the likelihood of near-term easing. That outcome could pressure Bitcoin 1–3% lower as markets recalibrate rate-cut expectations.

On the other hand, claims above 230,000 would raise concerns about softening employment conditions. In past cycles, weaker labor prints have boosted risk assets on the assumption that the Fed may pivot sooner. Such a scenario could lift Bitcoin 2–4% as easing bets increase.

With BTC consolidating between $68,000 and $69,000, this release may serve as a bridge between Wednesday’s Fed insight and Friday’s inflation data.

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Q4 2025 GDP (Final Revision)Friday’s final Q4 GDP revision is expected to show +2.5% annualized growth, a significant step down from the initial +4.4% estimate.

A downside surprise below 2.3% would reinforce slowdown narratives and potentially boost Bitcoin 3–6% as markets price in earlier policy relief. Softer consumer spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of GDP, would be closely watched.

However, a print above 2.7% could complicate the outlook. Strong growth may delay easing, reinforcing “higher for longer” expectations and weighing on crypto markets.

Bitcoin remains highly correlated with equities during major macro releases. Strong growth combined with persistent inflation has historically triggered short-term BTC pullbacks.

PCE & Core PCEThe week’s most important catalyst arrives with December’s PCE inflation report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Expectations call for +0.3% month-over-month increases in both headline and core PCE, with year-over-year readings around 2.8–2.9%.

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A cooler-than-expected 0.2% MoM print would signal further disinflation progress. That outcome could meaningfully increase the probability of a rate cut and spark a 4–8% Bitcoin rally, potentially pushing prices decisively above $70,000.

But a hotter print above 0.3% would reinforce sticky inflation concerns, likely triggering 3–5% downside pressure as yields climb and easing hopes fade.

Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, will carry particular weight for policymakers and traders alike.

From Fed messaging to labor resilience, growth revisions, and inflation data, each release feeds directly into expectations for 2026 monetary policy.

With Bitcoin stabilizing near $68,600 but still well below its 2025 highs, the market remains acutely sensitive to liquidity signals.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: BeInCryptoDovish surprises across the board could reignite risk appetite and drive a breakout toward $70,000 and beyond. Hawkish data, however, may deepen the correction toward $60,000–$65,000.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.

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Posted: February 16, 2026

Cardano [ADA], which lost 5% in the past 24 hours, is still struggling a week after falling out of the top 10 most-capped cryptos.

The gap between ADA and Bitcoin Cash [BCH], which is at position ten, was widening as it was more than $1.20 billion.

The altcoin has persistently displayed weakness, yet the recent support level may mark a significant turning point.

Cardano holds above a key support level On the three-day chart, Cardano was trading above a demand zone that bulls had defended since mid-2023. The zone at $0.244 initiated the move that reached $1.186 as 2024 came to a close.

On the 4-hour chart, the $0.537 zone was above where the current downtrend started. Price broke above this descending trendline resistance and was retesting it.

However, the altcoin was trading between the two short-term EMAs. Cardano had broken below the 9 EMA, but the 21 EMA was still holding strong.

Source: TradingView

On the capital flow side, money was moving into ADA, as seen in the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which was at 0.15. This was evident from the data on ADA Futures: longs vs. shorts.

Whales and retail go long  Whales, retail, and smart money had different views. However, in some instances, whales and retail appeared to align, while smart money remained generally bearish.

As per CoinGlass data, the Long/Short Ratio on Binance was bullish, with retail at 2.48, whale accounts at 2.77, and whale positions at 1.58. Smart money sentiment was extremely bearish even on Bybit.

Source: CoinGlass

OKX and Bybit had the same sentiment, but whale positions on both were bearish, at 0.78 and 0.97, respectively. This meant that whales and retail were buying while smart money was selling.

Apart from the lack of clarity in the price direction due to this mixed sentiment, activity was also not looking promising.

As per data from Token Terminal, the daily trading volume of the past week has been growing gradually. This was after a drop from the week’s high of $614 million.

When writing, the volume was at $549 million, a gradual increase from this week’s daily low of $364 million.

Source: Token Terminal

Additionally, active addresses have been stagnant since last year in March, even though there have been a few spikes. There were only 17,691 active addresses on the day.

Source: DefiLlama

Moreover, its stablecoin market cap had not shown growth since August of 2025. This indicated that liquidity could be a problem despite the high cumulative trading volume.

Final Summary Cardano trades above its most important support level with whales and retail going long.  ADA was experiencing lagging network activity, which explained why the altcoin had dropped so hard. 

4 mins mins

Is quantum risk priced into Bitcoin? Partially, signals suggest mixed discountingAnalysts increasingly argue that quantum computing risk is partially reflected in Bitcoin’s valuation, especially where it intersects with scarcity and long-horizon store-of-value narratives relative to gold. In practice, “priced in” implies investors apply a discount or risk premium to potential cryptographic threats that could impair custody or confidence.

Pricing is rarely binary. Some allocation committees and risk disclosures treat quantum as a structural headwind, while others frame it as a distant, mitigable technology risk. The result is a mixed market signal rather than a clear consensus.

What “priced in” quantum risk means for scarcityScarcity is not only about a fixed 21 million supply; it also depends on credible ownership and safe transfer. If a future cryptographically relevant quantum computer undermined signature security, theft fears or loss events could erode effective, circulating scarcity.

According to Coinbase Research, roughly 6.5 million BTC, about 30–33% of supply, are potentially exposed today due to public key visibility in certain address types. This risk targets signature schemes (e.g., ECDSA), not Bitcoin’s proof-of-work issuance or consensus rules. Vulnerability does not equal imminent loss; it highlights why key hygiene and upgrade paths matter to perceived scarcity.

If investors expect part of the stock to be harder to safeguard until upgrades land, they may discount those UTXOs, favoring fresh addresses, minimized key reuse, and custodians with proactive migration plans. That discounting is one way “priced in” scarcity adjustments can appear without a headline shock.

BingX: a trusted exchange delivering real advantages for traders at every level.

Market signals: ETF flows, futures basis, SOPR, leveraged shortsETF inflows alongside heavy leveraged short positioning and a stabilizing Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) point to competing forces on near-term direction, news/crypto/”>crypto.news/bitcoin-faces-quantum-scrutiny-as-leveraged-shorts-eye-liquidation-risk-zone/” target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow noopener”>as reported by crypto.news. The same coverage notes CME gap levels are in focus for traders, adding tactical complexity to any quantum-related narrative.

The difference in futures basis between CME and Deribit reflects varying risk appetite across regions, according to CoinDesk. That divergence can echo how onshore institutions versus offshore participants hedge tail risks, including low-probability technology shocks, though it does not isolate quantum as the driver.

At the time of this writing, Bitcoin traded near $68,996 with very high short-term volatility and neutral momentum readings. Such conditions can amplify how quickly narratives, quantum-related or otherwise, filter into pricing.

Post-quantum roadmap and institutional positioningDevelopers and institutions are mapping a post-quantum path that balances security, compatibility, and coordination costs. The roadmap spans new signature primitives, key rotation practices, and staged migrations designed to minimize disruption.

Developer groundwork and mitigation timelineTechnically, Bitcoin can introduce post-quantum signatures via soft-forkable extensions and new address types, then encourage rotation away from exposed public keys. Coordination across wallets, custodians, and exchanges is essential to scale the transition smoothly.

Timelines remain uncertain because credible quantum attacks require advances far beyond today’s machines. The prudent stance is parallel planning: continue research, test PQC schemes, and prepare operational playbooks while monitoring hardware progress.

BlackRock, Grayscale, Jefferies: disclosures and reallocationsLarge managers have begun formalizing the risk in different ways. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust filing lists “quantum computing risk” among potential long-term threats to digital asset cryptography, an explicit acknowledgment in a regulated risk-factor format.

Grayscale’s 2026 outlook frames quantum as real but unlikely to affect market valuations in 2026, emphasizing long-dated uncertainty and upgradeability. Jefferies’ Christopher Wood removed Bitcoin from a long-term model portfolio and reallocated to gold, citing quantum as a structural concern, as reported by Business Insider.

FAQ about quantum computing riskHow would a cryptographically relevant quantum computer threaten Bitcoin’s security and effective scarcity?It could break ECDSA signatures that protect exposed public keys, enabling theft from vulnerable addresses and weakening perceived scarcity until post-quantum safeguards are adopted.

What is the realistic timeline for quantum attacks on Bitcoin, and can Bitcoin migrate to post-quantum cryptography in time?Estimates vary widely. Planning is underway, and Bitcoin can add post-quantum signatures and rotate keys, but exact timing depends on hardware progress and network-wide coordination.

DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.

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Dogecoin trades at $0.1027 as of writing, down 10.54% in the past 24 hours, even as it holds a 9.01% gain over the last seven days. The meme coin has also declined 25.34% in the past 30 days, giving back part of its recent recovery and placing immediate focus on the $0.10 support zone.

The latest pullback followed a failed attempt to break above $0.1175. After that rejection, DOGE slipped below $0.1120 and $0.1080, triggering a fresh downside correction. Despite the drop, price action remains above the $0.10 level and the 100-hour simple moving average, a technical detail traders continue to monitor closely.

Double Confluence at $0.10 SupportOn the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair, a horizontal support is in play, and a bullish trendline is forming with support near $0.10. Market data shows buyers stepping in around this zone. The question now centers on whether this level can continue to absorb selling pressure.

Source: TradingView

If DOGE stabilizes above $0.10, analysts suggest the token could attempt another short-term push higher. However, a decisive break below this threshold could open the door to further downside. The price structure currently reflects a tug-of-war between short-term sellers locking in gains and buyers defending a critical technical floor.

Short-term volatility often defines meme coin cycles. Still, technical levels frequently guide momentum shifts. For now, the $0.10 region stands as the line separating renewed optimism from extended weakness.

Trendline Retest Could Offer a Fresh SurgeOn the daily chart, DOGE recently broke above a descending trendline before pulling back to retest it as support. Traders often interpret this pattern as a textbook breakout confirmation. When former resistance flips into support, it reinforces the validity of the move.

The retest appears to have held so far. If DOGE maintains this structure, analysts anticipate the potential for a stronger upward leg. Yet confirmation requires sustained price action above the reclaimed trendline.

Source: TradingView via X

This setup has drawn attention because it mirrors previous consolidation and breakout phases. In earlier cycles, similar structures preceded accelerated rallies. Whether history repeats remains uncertain, but chart watchers continue to track the pattern closely.

Weekly Wedge Structure at Key SupportOn the weekly timeframe, @Ali charts point to a large wedge formation. Historically, DOGE has respected wedge patterns, with prior breaks leading to sharp upside expansions. The current price now sits near the support of this broader structure.

Source: Ali Charts via X

@Ali Charts highlighted that previous interactions with this wedge produced upward breakouts. If DOGE breaks above the upper boundary again, momentum could shift rapidly. Still, wedge patterns require confirmation through volume and follow-through price action.

Looking Back at Past CyclesHistorical cycle analysis adds another layer to the discussion. In earlier bull markets, DOGE delivered significant multiples. The first major cycle produced a 95x move. The second cycle surged roughly 310x. Market participants now speculate about what a third cycle could bring if the broader crypto market turns favorable.

Source: Parody / Elon Musk via X

Such projections rely on pattern repetition and macro conditions aligning. With the broader market experiencing mixed momentum, traders remain cautious while monitoring support levels.

For now, Dogecoin is at a key level. The $0.10 support, daily trendline retest, and weekly wedge structure converge at a pivotal moment. That’s quality confluence. Will buyers defend this zone decisively, or will sellers push the token lower? Let's see what the next few sessions decide at the current market price.

Bitcoin should be crushing gold right now, but it’s not. And according to on-chain analyst Willy Woo, the reason comes down to one word: quantum.

Woo posted a thread on X today alongside a chart tracking how BTC has performed against gold since 2010. For 12 straight years, Bitcoin steadily gained ground on gold in a clear upward trend. That trend just broke.

Woo marks two moments on the chart where things shifted – the first time quantum risk was brought up on Bitcoin’s core developer mailing list, and the Quantum Bitcoin Summit.

“BTC should be valued a LOT HIGHER relative to gold. Should be. IT’S NOT,” Woo wrote. “The valuation trend broke down once QUANTUM came into awareness.”

4 Million Lost BTC Could Come Back Into PlayHere’s where it gets uncomfortable. Quantum computers, once powerful enough, could crack the cryptographic keys protecting around 4 million Bitcoin sitting in lost wallets – coins that nobody currently has access to.

Woo put that number in context. Since MicroStrategy kicked off its buying spree in 2020, every company and spot ETF combined has only scooped up 2.8 million BTC total. So 4 million lost coins is bigger than 8 years of corporate accumulation.

He gives just a 25% chance that the Bitcoin network would hard fork to freeze those coins before they’re recovered.

“The market has started pricing in the return of these lost coins ahead of time,” Woo said.

He estimates Q-Day – the point when quantum computers become a real threat – is still 5 to 15 years out. But markets don’t wait for the event and price it in early.

Also Read: Is Bitcoin Safe From Quantum Computing? CoinShares Data Says Yes For Now

Gold Keeps Climbing, but What About Bitcoin?The timing makes it worse. Woo argues we’re at the tail end of a long-term debt cycle, exactly the kind of environment where big money and sovereign nations pile into hard assets.

“It’s the end of the long term debt cycle, it’s where macro investors and sovereigns run to hard assets like gold,” Woo said. “Hence gold moons without BTC.”

Not Everyone AgreesCrypto investor Jean Michel Libera fired back, calling Woo’s argument a mix-up between technical fears and actual market forces. He argued the BTC/Gold gap is just normal consolidation after hitting resistance, driven by liquidity cycles and not quantum panic.

Woo pointed to satoshi-era whales offloading Bitcoin over the last 12 months as proof that the capital flows tell a different story than simple consolidation.

Trust with CoinPedia:CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017. All content is created by our expert panel of analysts and journalists, following strict Editorial Guidelines based on E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness). Every article is fact-checked against reputable sources to ensure accuracy, transparency, and reliability. Our review policy guarantees unbiased evaluations when recommending exchanges, platforms, or tools. We strive to provide timely updates about everything crypto & blockchain, right from startups to industry majors.

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SBI Holdings has pushed back against claims circulating on social media that it holds $10 billion worth of XRP, clarifying that the figure is inaccurate and misrepresents the company’s actual exposure to Ripple.

Summary

SBI Holdings denied holding $10 billion in XRP, correcting viral social media claims that overstated its token exposure. CEO Yoshitaka Kitao clarified that SBI owns around 9% of Ripple Labs, not a multibillion-dollar stash of XRP tokens. The company described its Ripple equity stake as a potential “hidden asset,” suggesting long-term strategic value rather than direct crypto holdings. SBI Holdings denies $10B XRP claims The confusion appears to have stemmed from a widely shared post stating that SBI, a long-time partner of Ripple, was a “holder of $10 billion in XRP” while expanding its footprint in Asia through the acquisition of Singapore-based crypto platform Coinhako.

However, SBI Holdings Chairman and CEO Yoshitaka Kitao publicly corrected the claim. In a reply on X, Kitao stated: “Not $10 bil. in XRP, but around 9% of Ripple Lab. So our hidden asset could be much bigger.”

Not 💲10 bil. in XRP.but around 9% of
Ripple Lab. So our hidden asset could be
much bigger,

— 北尾吉孝 (@yoshitaka_kitao) February 15, 2026 The clarification makes a key distinction: SBI does not directly hold $10 billion worth of XRP tokens. Instead, the Japanese financial services giant owns approximately 9% of Ripple Labs, the U.S.-based blockchain payments company closely associated with XRP.

SBI has been one of Ripple’s most prominent strategic partners in Asia for years, backing joint ventures and promoting the use of Ripple’s cross-border payment solutions across the region. Its equity stake in Ripple Labs represents a corporate investment, not a treasury holding of XRP tokens.

Kitao’s reference to a “hidden asset” suggests that SBI views its Ripple equity stake as potentially undervalued, particularly if Ripple’s valuation strengthens following regulatory clarity and continued expansion.

The incident shows how quickly misinformation can spread in crypto markets, especially when equity investments and token holdings are conflated. The takeaway is clear: SBI’s exposure to Ripple is significant, but it is tied to ownership in the company itself, not a multibillion-dollar XRP stockpile.

Rebeca Moen Feb 16, 2026 09:20

SUI trades at $0.97 with oversold conditions signaling potential bounce to $1.10 by March 2026, though bearish momentum below key moving averages suggests caution for investors.

SUI Price Prediction Summary • Short-term target (1 week): $1.01 • Medium-term forecast (1 month): $1.10-$1.20 range
• Bullish breakout level: $1.05 • Critical support: $0.91

What Crypto Analysts Are Saying About Sui Recent analyst commentary provides mixed signals for SUI's price trajectory. Luisa Crawford noted on February 10, 2026: "SUI trades at $0.94 with oversold RSI at 27.70. Technical analysis suggests potential bounce to $1.10 by March 2026, but bearish momentum persists below key moving averages."

Caroline Bishop offered a more optimistic view on February 5, 2026: "SUI trades at $1.00 with oversold RSI at 21.64 signaling potential bounce. Technical analysis suggests $1.50-$1.85 recovery targets by March 2026."

While these predictions offer potential upside scenarios, current technical indicators suggest a more conservative approach may be warranted given the ongoing bearish momentum.

SUI Technical Analysis Breakdown Current technical indicators paint a complex picture for SUI's price action. Trading at $0.97, SUI has declined 5.80% over the past 24 hours within a range of $0.96 to $1.03. The substantial trading volume of $36.4 million on Binance indicates significant market participation during this decline.

The RSI reading of 35.78 places SUI in neutral territory, suggesting neither extreme oversold nor overbought conditions. However, the MACD histogram at 0.0000 with both MACD and signal lines at -0.1327 indicates bearish momentum remains intact.

SUI's position relative to its Bollinger Bands shows the token trading at 0.34 of the band range, closer to the lower band at $0.77 than the upper band at $1.34. This positioning suggests potential for upward movement within the band structure.

The moving average structure reveals the challenge facing SUI bulls. Currently below the SMA 20 ($1.06), SMA 50 ($1.41), and significantly below the SMA 200 ($2.35), SUI faces multiple resistance levels on any recovery attempt.

Sui Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case Bullish Scenario The bullish case for this SUI price prediction centers on the oversold technical conditions and key support holding. Immediate resistance at $1.01 represents the first target, followed by strong resistance at $1.05. A break above $1.05 would confirm bullish momentum and open the path toward the $1.10-$1.20 range suggested by recent analyst forecasts.

The Bollinger Band middle line at $1.06 aligns closely with these targets, providing technical confluence for the Sui forecast. Success above this level could extend gains toward the $1.34 upper Bollinger Band over the medium term.

Bearish Scenario The bearish scenario for SUI focuses on the persistent selling pressure and multiple resistance levels overhead. Failure to hold immediate support at $0.94 would target the strong support zone at $0.91. A break below this critical level could accelerate decline toward the Bollinger Band lower boundary at $0.77.

The negative MACD readings and positioning below all major moving averages support this bearish thesis. Weekly closes below $0.91 would invalidate near-term recovery scenarios and suggest deeper correction ahead.

Should You Buy SUI? Entry Strategy Based on current technical analysis, a layered entry approach appears most prudent for SUI. Conservative buyers might wait for a break above $1.01 resistance with volume confirmation before establishing positions, targeting the $1.10 analyst forecast level.

More aggressive traders could consider accumulation near current levels around $0.97, placing stop-losses below the $0.91 strong support. This approach offers favorable risk-reward toward the $1.05-$1.10 target zone.

Risk management remains crucial given the bearish momentum indicators. Position sizing should account for potential volatility, with the daily ATR of $0.09 suggesting significant intraday price swings.

Conclusion This SUI price prediction suggests cautious optimism for the coming weeks. While technical indicators show oversold conditions supporting analyst targets around $1.10 by March 2026, the bearish momentum and multiple resistance levels require careful navigation.

The $0.91-$1.05 range likely defines SUI's near-term trading boundaries, with breakouts in either direction providing clearer directional signals. Investors should monitor volume patterns and moving average reclaims for confirmation of any sustained recovery.

Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency price predictions involve significant risk and uncertainty. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.

Image source: Shutterstock

sui price analysis sui price prediction

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XRP price slipped to $1.45 ahead of the Supreme Court’s ruling on Trump’s tariffs. The Ripple dropped 6% in 24 hours as selling pressure increased across the market. The crypto market also weakened, as total market capitalization was down by 3% to $2.34 trillion.

XRP price recently reached $1.67, but strong profit-taking erased much of its advance.  Bitcoin price hovered at around $68, 000 and Ethereum is still holding above the $2,000 support level.

Supreme Court Set for Feb. 20 Trump Tariff Decision 20th Feb could mark a turning point in a closely watched Supreme Court battle over tariffs. The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to resume issuing opinions after a month-long winter recess. 

One of the pending cases includes a challenge against tariffs by President Donald Trump. The case is about the application of the emergency power under the economic law of the USA.

The case was argued in November by lawyers and deliberated on by the justices since that time. The core issue is whether emergency powers provided a justification to sweep import duties. Critics indicate that the power of tariffs, rather than the executive branch, exists with Congress.

🚨 BREAKING:

🇺🇸 Supreme Court sets February 20 as the next possible date for the “TRUMP TARIFF” ruling. pic.twitter.com/zSVQuLOipa

— Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) February 13, 2026

In case the Supreme Court of United States declares the tariffs unlawful, the businesses are entitled to a refund. These claims might consist of billions of dollars paid over a number of years.

A ruling that could impact the tariff policy of Donald Trump can remake the trade, the crypto markets, such as XRP, and the prices of consumers.

XRP ETFs Maintain Momentum as Total Inflows Reach $1.23B According to Sosovalue data, XRP-focused ETFs attracted solid inflows at the latest close. Daily net inflows totaled $4.50 million as of February 13, reflecting renewed buying activity.

Cumulative inflows grew to $1.23 billion, reflecting continued investor exposure to XRP products. Total trading value was at $19.69 million, indicating consistent turnover throughout listed funds.

Several leading ETFs added to the growth of the asset, while the overall XRP share allocations held steady.

XRP Price Prediction: Can  Ripple Hold Above $1.40 Support Level? The latest XRP price hovered at $1.46 as the market moved through a steady consolidation phase after last week’s surge.

The RSI cooled to the 50 area following the breakout into overbought territory. This was an indicator of a neutral momentum and a momentary halt in the purchasing power. 

The Chaikin Money Flow remained a little positive, and it indicated that the capital inflows were not decreased despite the price movement slowing down.

Breaking decisively above $1.50 could help pave the way to the closest upward target of $1.60. Any breakout of that zone might enable XRP to retest the prior resistance levels and trend structure at $$1.75.

Source: XRP/USDT 4-hour chart: Tradingview Should bearish pressure come back, the initial first lower price is at $1.40, then it is at $1.30 in case of increased selling. The fall below $1.30 would hurt the short-term feeling.

To sum up, XRP price is at an important junction as traders wait the Supreme Court verdict. The consistent ETF inflows can maintain the bullish trend, and it is critical to hold above $1.40 to avoid further downward force.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) XRP declined due to profit-taking and broader market uncertainty surrounding the Supreme Court tariff ruling.

The ruling could impact U.S. trade policy, influencing financial and crypto market sentiment.

XRP recorded $1.2 billion in 24-hour trading volume across top exchanges in South Korea, outpacing BTC and ETH locally by a wide margin. Bithumb and Upbit activity show that XRP pulled in $1.2 billion in 24-hour trading volume, with Tether coming in a distant second at $254.35 million.

The Bithumb and Upbit data also showed that Ethereum ranked second with $304.41 million in 24-hour trading volume, while Bitcoin ranked third with nearly $285 million. Local media reports that XRP rose faster than Bitcoin and ETH after investors engaged in a panic-dip buying spree following the crypto market crash earlier this month. Data from the country’s largest exchanges reveals that domestic traders consistently prioritize XRP for its speed and liquidity when the market heats up.

Upbit records over $1T in 2025 XRP trading volume Dunamu, the operator of Upbit, previously listed XRP as the platform’s most-traded asset for 2025, ranking it ahead of Bitcoin and ETH. Upbit processed over $1 trillion in XRP trading volume, surpassing Bitcoin and Ethereum to become the country’s most traded crypto asset for that year. 

The Upbit team says XRP occupies a “sweet spot” for South Korean investors because it exhibits sufficient volatility to generate significant short-term returns while maintaining enough liquidity to allow traders to exit positions quickly. 

Upbit also reported that XRP reached 13.26 million users, accounting for up to 22% of daily local trading at times. The exchange’s activity accounts for approximately 70% of South Korea’s crypto market, and XRP dominates locally in terms of volume, liquidity, and usage. 

Meanwhile, Upbit’s review also ranked XRP/KRW as the top trading pair for much of 2025. CoinGlass data supports this pattern, showing that the XRP/KRW market on Upbit surged by 156% in a single hour. Other major exchanges, including Gate, Bybit, Coinbase, and OKX, also saw notable spikes in one-hour XRP trading volumes. The volumes range from $1.4 million to $3.12 million.

On the other hand, Upbit has also disclosed that XRP’s daily volume in South Korea regularly exceeds $95 million and has repeatedly surpassed Bitcoin’s 24-hour trading volume. The flow is driven by local retail engagement, creating a deep self-reinforcing liquidity pool. 

XRP’s price drops 4.5% in 24 hours following a 38% short rally XRP price has dropped by 4.5% to $1.46 over the past 24 hours, a significant turnaround from the brief 38% rally to $1.55 from February 6 to February 15. The performance places the digital asset way ahead of Bitcoin and Ethereum, which gained approximately 15% since February 6. BTC and ETH are currently trading at $68,263 and $1,957, respectively. BTC has lost 3% over the past 24 hours, while ETH has plummeted 6.4% over the same period.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant data indicates that Binance XRP reserves dropped sharply by 192.37 million to ~2.55 billion between February 7 and February 9. The 7% slip marked the lowest level since 2024, although holdings have remained stable since then. XRP’s Bitcoin-beating rally tracks signs of dip-buying on Binance following the February 6 crash.

On the other hand, market analysts typically associate a drop in exchange balances with investor accumulation. The logic is that investors prefer to take direct custody of tokens rather than keep them on exchanges when intending to hold them long-term. Historical trends reinforce this view.

XRP, the fourth-largest cryptocurrency in the world, is back in focus after a bold XRP price prediction from Michel Oliver, head of Tokentus Investment AG. He said XRP could reach between $7 and $9 in the next bull market. 

This comes as the XRP price shows solid recovery and growing institutional interest, despite recent price pressure.

Michel Oliver XRP Price Prediction $9Speaking in a recent interview on the German financial media platform Der Aktionär TV, Michel Oliver said XRP could climb as high as $9 in the next major crypto bull cycle.

One of the main reasons behind the Michel Oliver XRP price prediction is the steady growth in XRP institutional adoption. Also growing partnerships with banks, fintech companies, and payment providers across Europe, Asia, and the Middle East.

Many institutions are using XRP and Ripple’s technology to improve cross-border payments by reducing transaction time and costs. He also pointed out that improving regulatory clarity in several regions has helped improve trust among large investors.

Oliver believes the next bull cycle will reward projects with real-world use cases. If institutional adoption continues and payment integration expands, XRP could benefit from stronger long-term demand.

XRP Outperforming Bitcoin and EthereumAnother key reason behind the Michel Oliver XRP price prediction is XRP’s strong recovery performance. Since the February market downturn, XRP has recovered nearly 19%, outperforming Bitcoin and Ethereum, which recovered only around 6%.

On a weekly basis, XRP is up nearly 4%, while Bitcoin and Ethereum are down about 1.5% and 3.2%, respectively.

This recovery shows strong investor interest and rising XRP demand during market uncertainty. As more institutions and investors adopt XRP, the overall demand is expected to increase further.

As of now, the XRP price is trading around $1.46, down nearly 11% today. On the weekly chart, XRP remains in a corrective phase after completing a five-wave impulsive move to the upside.

The marked (1) to (5) structure signals the end of a full bullish cycle, with wave (5) peaking near the $3.50 region. Since that top, XRP has formed lower highs and lower lows, reflecting sustained medium-term bearish pressure.

Currently, the key support zone sits around $1.40. If buyers manage to defend this level, a relief rally toward the $2.50–$3.00 range could unfold. However, for a confirmed trend reversal, XRP must reclaim the $2.10 level with strong buying volume.

Meanwhile, the weekly RSI is hovering in the mid-30s. This indicates weak momentum but also suggests that selling pressure may be gradually slowing down.

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Journalist

Posted: February 16, 2026

Despite a difficult start to the year, Strategy’s Executive Chairman Michael Saylor has teased more Bitcoin [BTC] buys!

A pat on the back like this, even in uncertain market conditions, is proof of belief in BTC’s long-term future.

Strategy set to buy more Bitcoin? Saylor recently shared the company’s Bitcoin accumulation chart on X, making buzz about another purchase heat up.

The post caption implied that its 99th Bitcoin transaction is all set to take place, which will extend a buying streak that has lasted for 12 straight weeks.

Source: X

Strategy’s latest purchase came on the 9th of February, when it bought 1,142 Bitcoin for over $90 million. This pushed its total holdings to 714,644 BTC.

Strategy is the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. BTC has fallen hard from its peak above $125,000, dropping below Strategy’s average purchase price of $76K.

All this buying… …comes at a time of shaky footing for BTC.

For the first time in its history, Bitcoin posted losses in both January and February of the same year. According to CoinGlass, BTC fell by over 10% in January and another 13% in February 2026.

Source: Coinglass

Since Bitcoin has performed better during these months in recent years, this is concerning.

Reassurance despite losses Strategy reported a massive $12.4 billion loss in Q4 2025, which sent its stock down by around 17%. Still, the firm moved quickly to calm concerns.

Source: X

In a recent update on X, the company said it could survive even if Bitcoin falls as low as $8,000.

MSTR’s Bitcoin reserves would apparently still be enough to cover its debt, thanks to its strong balance sheet and staggered debt timelines.

The company has also announced plans to gradually convert some of its debt into equity to reduce pressure.

Final Summary Michael Saylor hints at more Bitcoin buys. Strategy’s holding stands at 714,644 BTC, and it can survive an $8K crash.

Investor attention is turning to the evolving relationship between SBI Holdings and Ripple, as new comments from the Japanese group’s CEO spotlight the scale of the partnership’s impact on the broader crypto ecosystem and the primary keyword sbi holdings ripple.

Summary

Kitao clarifies SBI’s exposure to RippleRipple equity exposure and potential upsideAsia push accelerates with Coinhako acquisitionXRP and Bitcoin ETF ambitions in TokyoSBI Holdings profile and long-term crypto goals Kitao clarifies SBI’s exposure to Ripple Excitement in the XRP community surged after Yoshitaka Kitao, CEO and President of SBI Holdings, corrected claims about the firm’s crypto exposure. An X user alleged that the Japanese financial group holds $10,000,000,000 in XRP, partly tied to its expansion in Asia via the Coinhako deal.

However, Kitao clarified that SBI does not hold $10 billion in XRP. Instead, he revealed that SBI owns around 9% of Ripple Labs. This shifts the narrative from a massive direct XRP stash to a substantial equity position in the US-based fintech firm.

Moreover, Kitao stressed that this equity stake should be viewed against Ripple’s overall corporate value. He noted that when considering Ripple’s total valuation, including its ecosystem and recent expansion, the figure “would be enormous,” highlighting what he called SBI’s “hidden asset.”

Ripple equity exposure and potential upside Prominent XRP community commentator Eri underscored that owning 9% of Ripple means exposure to the company’s full ecosystem. That includes its underlying technology stack, cross-border payment solutions, extensive global partnerships, and the vast XRP reserves held in escrow.

This perspective suggests that SBI’s hidden asset exposure could ultimately exceed the speculative $10 billion in XRP that some had assumed. However, the real upside will depend heavily on how markets value Ripple in any future corporate event, such as an initial public offering.

Market speculation has long floated the idea that a Ripple public listing could value the company at more than $100,000,000,000. That said, no official timetable for an IPO or similar listing has been announced, and Ripple has not provided firm guidance on timing.

Today, Ripple itself holds just over 39 billion XRP, valued at roughly $57,000,000,000 at current prices. At XRP’s peak price of $3.66, the company’s XRP holdings alone were worth more than $142,000,000,000, illustrating the scale of potential valuation swings tied to the token’s market cycles.

Asia push accelerates with Coinhako acquisition The renewed focus on SBI’s relationship with Ripple comes as the Japanese group continues a sharp expansion into digital assets across Asia. In a recent announcement, SBI said its subsidiary SBI Ventures Asset Pte. Ltd. plans to acquire a majority stake in Singapore-based crypto platform Coinhako.

Coinhako operates under Hako Technology, which is licensed by Singapore’s financial regulator, and under Alpha Hako Ltd., regulated in the British Virgin Islands. Moreover, this structure gives SBI regulated access to multiple jurisdictions, strengthening its regional presence.

Once regulatory approvals are secured and the transaction is completed, Coinhako will be folded into SBI Holdings. Kitao described the move as a strategic step to build a stronger digital asset network across Asia, including services for tokenized stocks, stablecoins, and wider crypto market infrastructure.

XRP and Bitcoin ETF ambitions in Tokyo SBI’s confidence in its partnership with Ripple mirrors its broader crypto ambitions in Japan. In recent regulatory filings, the financial group disclosed plans for a Crypto Asset ETF that will include both Bitcoin and XRP, alongside a separate product combining Bitcoin and gold.

The planned ETF would list on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, pending approval by Japanese regulators. However, there is no confirmed launch date yet. Even so, the initiative signals growing institutional momentum for digital assets in Japan’s capital markets.

In this context, the phrase sbi holdings ripple has become shorthand for a broader strategy that ties ETF products, exchange operations, and equity stakes into a single long-term crypto thesis. Moreover, SBI’s ETF plans underscore how traditional financial players are increasingly blending digital and conventional asset classes.

SBI Holdings profile and long-term crypto goals SBI Holdings is a major Japanese financial conglomerate that has been steadily ramping up its presence in digital assets, including Bitcoin and XRP. As of 2025, the group managed around ¥10 trillion in assets under management, reflecting its significant domestic footprint.

The company aims to grow its crypto-related business through a combination of direct investments, ETFs, and strategic equity stakes such as its 9% shareholding in Ripple. Moreover, SBI has indicated that the value of this 9% stake will only be officially reflected on its books after Ripple goes public or undergoes a comparable valuation event.

Earlier commentary from the firm suggested that formally unlocking the value of its Ripple stake could help push SBI’s crypto segment toward a long-term target of ¥1 trillion. That said, the timing and scale of this revaluation depend on external market conditions, as well as on Ripple’s own corporate roadmap.

Overall, SBI’s combination of Ripple equity, the Coinhako expansion, and planned Bitcoin and XRP ETFs in Tokyo illustrates a coordinated push to cement its role in the next phase of digital finance across Asia.

Alessia Pannone

Graduated in communication sciences, currently student of the master's degree course in publishing and writing. Writer of articles from an SEO perspective, with care for indexing in search engines.

Strategy says it can survive even if bitcoin drops to $8,000 and will 'equitize' debtStrategy says it can withstand a bitcoin price drop to $8,000 and still cover its roughly $6 billion in net debt. Feb 16, 2026, 9:08 a.m.

Bitcoin BTC$68,770.50 treasury firm Strategy (MSTR) said it can ride out a potential plunge in the price of the largest cryptocurrency to $8,000 and still honor its debt.

"Strategy can withstand a drawdown in $BTC price to $8K and still have sufficient assets to fully cover our debt," the Michael Saylor-led company said on X.

STORY CONTINUES BELOW

The company, which holds more bitcoin than any other publicly traded company, has accumulated 714,644 BTC, worth roughly $49.3 billion at current prices, since adopting it as a treasury asset in 2020.

Over the years, it has stacked bitcoin via debt, a tactic echoed by peers such as Tokyo-listed Metaplanet (3350). It owes about $6 billion — equivalent to 86,956 BTC — against bitcoin holdings over eight times larger.

While these debt-financed bitcoin buys were widely cheered during the crypto bull run, they have become a liability in the wake of the token's crash to nearly $60,000 from its October peak of over $126,000.

If Strategy is forced to liquidate its bitcoin holdings to pay off the debt, it could flood the market and drive prices even lower.

In the Sunday post, Strategy assured investors its bitcoin holdings would still be worth $6 billion even at an $8,000 BTC price, enough to cover its debt.

Strategy's finances. (Strategy)

The company noted that it doesn't have to pay all its debt at once, as the due dates are spread over 2027 and 2032.

To further assuage concerns, Strategy said it plans to switch existing convertible debt into equity to avoid issuing additional senior debt. Convertible debt is a loan that lenders can swap for MSTR shares if the stock price rises high enough.

Not everyone is impressedSkeptics remain.

Critics like pseudonymous macro asset manager Capitalists Exploits point out that while $8,000 bitcoin might technically cover the $6 billion net debt, Strategy reportedly paid around $54 billion for its stash, an average of $76,000 per BTC. A slide to $8,000 would amount to a whopping $48 billion paper loss, making the balance sheet look ugly to lenders and investors.

Cash on hand would cover only about 2.5 years of debt and dividend payments at current rates, the observer argued, and the software business pulls in just $500 million a year. That's way too little to handle the $8.2 billion in convertible bonds plus $8 billion in preferred shares, which demand hefty, ongoing dividends like endless interest bills.

All this means that refinancing may not be readily available if bitcoin drops to $8,000.

"Traditional lenders are unlikely to refinance a company whose primary asset has depreciated significantly, with conversion options rendered economically worthless, deteriorating credit metrics, and a stated policy of holding BTC long-term (limiting collateral liquidity)," the observer said in a post on X. "New debt issuance would likely require yields of 15-20% or higher to attract investors, or could fail entirely in stressed market conditions."

Dump on retail investorsAnton Golub, chief business officer at crypto exchange Freedx, called the "equitizing" move a planned "dump on retail investors."

He explained that buyers of Strategy's convertible bonds have been primarily Wall Street hedge funds, who aren't bitcoin fans but "volatility arbitrageurs."

The arbitrage involves hedge funds profiting from discrepancies between the expected or implied volatility of a convertible bond's embedded options and the actual volatility of the underlying stock.

Funds typically buy cheap convertible bonds and bet against, or "short," the stock. This setup helps them bypass big price swings, while earning from bond interest, ups-and-downs volatility, and a "pull-to-par" boost where deep-discount bonds rise toward full value at maturity.

According to Golub, Strategy's convertible bonds were priced for small ups and downs. But the stock swung wildly, letting hedge funds mint money from the arbitrage: buying the bonds cheaply while betting against the stock.

This setup worked beautifully when shares traded above $400, the trigger for bondholders to convert debt into stock. Hedge funds closed their shorts, bonds vanished via conversion, and Strategy avoided cash payouts.

At $130 a share, conversion makes no sense. So hedge funds will likely demand full cash repayment when the bonds mature, potentially putting Strategy's finances under strain.

Golub expects the firm to respond by diluting shares.

"Strategy will: dilute shareholders by issuing new shares, dump on retail via ATM sales, to raise cash to pay hedge funds," he said in an explainer post on LinkedIn.

"Strategy only looks genius during Bitcoin bull markets. In bear markets, dilution is real and destroys MSTR shareholders," he added.

More For You

Binance's CZ echoes Consensus panelists on lack of privacy blocking crypto adoption

33 minutes ago

Lack of privacy is a barrier to both everyday and institutional use of crypto and blockchain technology, CZ and institutions argue.

What to know:

Crypto leaders including Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao warn that the radical transparency of public blockchains is deterring mass adoption of crypto. Institutional executives at firms such as Abraxas Capital, JPMorgan and B2C2 say large transactions require privacy so that only authorized parties can see who is behind deals, even as activity remains auditable.A recent $50 million commercial paper issuance on Solana by JPMorgan and Galaxy Digital showcased the promise of tokenized debt but also underscored that institutions will not move assets on-chain at scale until privacy and execution certainty improve.

A cryptocurrency trader on the popular prediction market Polymarket appears to have managed to turn his hobby into a staggering source of wealth, having made approximately $118,000 in just one month.

What makes the success of the trader, designated xdd07070 on the platform, even more remarkable is that their original stake was just $170. This means that, between mid-January and February 16, they achieved a nearly 70,000% return on the investment.

Main statistics for the crypto trader xdd07070. Source: Polymarket The Polymarket esports strategy that generated 70,000% return Additionally, the strategy itself appears not to rely on any complex model or lightning-fast trading bots, such as some of the previously seen highly successful accounts, as xdd07070 made only 40 trades focused on the outcome of esports matches.

Indeed, strategy involves tracking and betting on esports matches in video games, with the vast majority of predictions being focused on popular titles Counter Strike (CS), League of Legends (LoL), and Valorant. 

The outliers to the pattern were two trades centered on Dota 2 – a game similar to LoL that is the direct successor of the Warcraft 3 mod that arguably established the genre.

Crypto trader first lost more than $20,000 before turning $170 into $118,000 Another interesting facet of xdd07070’s trading is their win rate. The initial five trades – four centered on LoL and one on CS – were all losers, with Polymarket displaying losses in excess of $20,000.

Initial trades of xdd07070, including the 5 original losses. Source: Polymarket After these, the trader’s fortunes completely changed, and the subsequent 35 wagers were all successful, leading to the $170-to-$118,000 outcome and an 80% win rate by press time on February 16, 2026.

Featured image via Shutterstock

Solana forms head and shoulders breakdown as traders track $50 to $60 support and $114.35 breakout target.

Tatevik Avetisyan2 min read

16 February 2026, 09:21 AM

Solana faced a tug of war on technical charts after one trader flagged a breakdown setup while another tracked a potential breakout path. The two chart calls focus on the same asset but point to opposite outcomes, with key levels now acting as the main reference points.

Solana Head and Shoulders Breakdown Pressures Price Near $80Solana broke below a key horizontal support after forming a head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart shared by X user Bitcoinsensus. The pattern shows a left shoulder in mid-2024, a higher peak in early 2025 as the head, and a right shoulder later in 2025. After the right shoulder failed, price slid through the neckline zone, which had acted as support during prior pullbacks.

Chart name: Solana U.S. Dollar Daily Chart. Source:  Bitcoinsensus

The chart shows SOL trading near $79.60 at the time of the snapshot. The breakdown pushed price below the former base around the low-$100 area, which now acts as resistance. As a result, the broader structure turned lower, with lower highs and lower lows forming after the neckline loss.

Momentum also weakened on the lower panel. The RSI trended down toward the low-30s, which reflects sustained selling pressure during the breakdown phase. In line with this setup, Bitcoinsensus marked the next support band in the $50 to $60 area as the nearest zone where price previously found demand during earlier market cycles.

Solana Breakout Setup Puts $114.35 Level in FocusMeanwhile, Trader Elja, posting as @Eljaboom on X, highlighted a Solana setup that frames a potential upside move after a rebound from a rising trendline. The 4 hour chart shows price compressing upward into a wide grey resistance band, which has capped several attempts to push higher.

SOLUSDT Spot 4H. Source: Elja (@Eljaboom)

The chart marks that grey zone as the key breakout area. If price clears it, the graphic points to a measured move toward the horizontal level at $114.35, shown as the next major target above. The “Breakout” bracket on the right visualizes the distance between the resistance band and that upper line.

For now, the post says the focus stays on confirmation. The chart keeps the bullish case tied to holding the rising diagonal support line while price tests the overhead zone again.

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Bitcoin

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong says retail users kept buying Bitcoin and Ethereum on price dips, with most Coinbase client balances in February at or above December levels.

Summary

Coinbase internal data shows retail users increased BTC and ETH purchases during recent dips. Most Coinbase client crypto balances in February stayed equal to or higher than December levels. Analysts say resilient retail demand contrasts with softer institutional flows and may impact near-term market structure. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong reported that retail investors increased cryptocurrency purchases during recent market declines, according to internal company data.

Armstrong stated in a post on social media platform X that individual investors on Coinbase demonstrated buying activity during price drops for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The executive cited internal trading data showing increased retail trading volume correlating with price declines.

“According to our data, individual users on Coinbase have been quite resilient in these market conditions: they took advantage of the dips to buy,” Armstrong stated. “We saw increases for retail users across Bitcoin and Ethereum.”

The Coinbase chief executive noted that retail investors exhibited holding behavior during short-term price volatility. Armstrong reported that most client cryptocurrency balances in February remained at or above December levels.

Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoin markets experienced sharp declines in recent weeks, with recovery attempts ongoing, according to market data.

Market analysts noted the contrast between retail buying activity and slower institutional fund inflows during the period. The divergence represents a significant factor in short-term supply and demand dynamics, according to industry observers.

Analysts stated that additional market catalysts would be needed for increased retail demand to shift broader market trends, given current macroeconomic conditions and derivatives market structure.

Coinbase operates as a cryptocurrency exchange platform serving retail and institutional clients.