Market Signal Briefing

Key Takeaways Rio Tinto lifted Pilbara shipments 7% to 91.3 million tons; production rose 4%.RIO's Gudai-Darri hit strong run rates as the new Pilbara Blend strategy improved product mix.Rio Tinto advances Rhodes Ridge and Simandou, targeting 40-50 million tons and commissioning in Guinea. Rio Tinto Group (RIO - Free Report) reported strong growth in iron ore production and shipments in the fourth quarter of 2025. During the quarter, Pilbara iron ore shipments reached 91.3 million tons, increasing 7% from the year-ago-quarter figure. The company’s Pilbara iron ore production stood at 89.7 million tons (up 4% year over year), reflecting robust output despite weather-related disruptions earlier in 2025.

The robust performance was primarily supported by Rio Tinto’s Pilbara operations in Western Australia. The Gudai-Darri project continued its strong performance in the fourth quarter, after achieving a record 51 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) run rate in the previous quarter. The successful rollout of the new Pilbara Blend product strategy also contributed to improved product mix, with lower SP10 volumes as planned.

Also, the company is poised to benefit from several of its major growth projects. In December 2025, RIO’s Rhodes Ridge joint venture approved a $191 million feasibility study to develop one of the world’s major undeveloped iron ore deposits in Western Australia, aiming for an initial annual production of 40-50 million tons. The study is likely to conclude in 2029. In October 2025, at the Simandou iron ore project based in Guinea, the first ore was loaded and transported. It marked the start of commissioning across the mine, rail and port infrastructure.

The company’s strong performance at the Gudai-Darri facility, supported by record output and improved system efficiency, highlights Rio Tinto’s operational strength in iron ore. Its major pipeline of projects, including the likes of Rhodes Ridge and Simandou, is advancing steadily, positioning the company well for long-term growth.

Snapshot of RIO’s PeersAmong its major peers, Vale S.A.’s (VALE - Free Report) iron ore sales totaled 84.9 metric tons (Mt) in the fourth quarter of 2025, which marked 5% growth from last year’s comparable quarter. Vale’s iron ore production was up 6% to 90.4 Mt from the year-ago quarter. Vale’s average realized iron ore fines price increased 1.1% quarter over quarter to $95.40 per ton.

Its other peer, BHP Group Limited (BHP - Free Report) , produced a record 263 Mt of iron ore in fiscal 2025. This came within BHP Group’s guidance of 255-265.5 Mt and was up 1% year over year. Production at BHP Group’s Western Australia Iron Ore was a record of 257 Mt (290 Mt on a 100% basis).

RIO's Price Performance, Valuation and EstimatesShares of Rio Tinto have gained 57.2% in the past six months compared with the industry’s growth of 42.4%.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation standpoint, RIO is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.88X, below the industry’s average of 16.00X. Rio Tinto carries a Value Score of B.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RIO’s 2026 earnings has increased 12.3% over the past 60 days.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Rio Tinto currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Key Takeaways DBX beat Q4 earnings estimates as revenues and ARR declined y/y.DBX posted a 38.2% non-GAAP operating margin, up 130 bps y/y on lower expenses.DBX expects 2026 revenues of $2.485-$2.5B and a free cash flow of $1.04B or above. Dropbox (DBX - Free Report) reported fourth-quarter 2025 non-GAAP earnings of 68 cents per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.52% and decreased 6.8% year over year.

Revenues of $636.2 million declined 1.1% year over year but beat the consensus mark by 1.39%. On a constant-currency (cc) basis, revenues fell 1.6%.

Total annual recurring revenues (ARR) were $2.53 billion, down 1.9% year over year. On a cc basis, ARR decreased 1.7%.

Dropbox shares inched up 0.2% at the time of writing this article. DBX shares have dropped 7.5% in the trailing 12 months, underperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's 22.3% return.

Dropbox Quarter DetailsDBX exited the fourth quarter of 2025 with 18.08 million paying users compared with 18.22 million in the year-ago quarter. The average revenue per paying user was $139.68 compared with $140.06 in the year-ago quarter.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, Dropbox reported a non-GAAP gross margin of 80.8%, down 230 bps year over year.

In the reported quarter, non-GAAP research and development expenses were $130.9 million, down 8.1% year over year. Non-GAAP sales and marketing expenses decreased 13.2% year over year to $92.8 million. Non-GAAP general and administrative expenses decreased 0.8% year over year to $47.6 million.

The company reported a non-GAAP operating margin of 38.2%, up 130 bps year over year.

Dropbox Balance Sheet & Cash FlowAs of Dec. 31, 2025, DBX had cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments of $1.04 billion compared with $925.3 million as of Sept 30.

Cash generated by operating activities was $235.4 million in the reported quarter compared with $302.1 million in the previous quarter.

In the fourth quarter, the company generated a free cash flow of $224.9 million compared with $293.7 million in the previous quarter.

In the reported quarter, the company repurchased 14 million shares for $415 million. As of the end of the fourth quarter, $1.17 billion remained under the existing share repurchase authorizations.

DBX Initiates Q1 & FY26 GuidanceFor the first quarter of 2026, Dropbox expects revenues between $618 million and $621 million. At cc, the company anticipates revenues of $610-$613 million.

The non-GAAP operating margin is expected to be 38%.

For 2026, Dropbox expects revenues between $2.485 billion and $2.5 billion. At cc, revenues are anticipated between $2.458 billion and $2.473 billion.

The company expects the gross margin to be 81.5-82% for the year. The non-GAAP operating margin is expected to be 39-39.5%.

Unlevered free cash flow is expected to be $1.04 billion or above, with the capital expenditure between $20 million and $25 million.

Zacks Rank & Stocks to ConsiderDropbox currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Micron Technology (MU - Free Report) , MongoDB (MDB - Free Report) and Credo Technology Group (CRDO - Free Report) are some better-ranked stocks that investors can consider in the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector.

Micron Technology shares have soared 321.1% in the past 12 months. This Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) company is scheduled to release second-quarter 2026 results on March 19. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

MongoDB shares have rallied 30.4% in the past 12 months. MDB is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2026 results on March 2. The company presently sports a Zacks Rank #1.

 Credo Technology shares have surged 95.2% in the past 12 months . CRDO is set to report third-quarter fiscal 2026 results on March 2. The company currently flaunts a Zacks Rank #1.

AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Invesco RAFI Strategic US ETF offers a 544-stock portfolio blending fundamental size and quality factors. IUS has a more balanced sector allocation than the S&P 500, underweighting technology and financials while maintaining large-cap predominance. IUS has outperformed both the S&P 500 and peer large value ETFs since 2018, making it a compelling long-term core holding alternative to cap-weighted funds.

Key Takeaways Select Medical reported Q4 EPS of 16 cents, missing estimates as expenses climbed 3.2% YoY.SEM saw revenues rise 6.4% to $1.4B, led by 15.2% growth in Rehabilitation Hospital sales.Outpatient Rehabilitation EBITDA fell 57.9%, while 2026 revenues are guided at $5.6-$5.8B. Select Medical Holdings Corporation (SEM - Free Report) reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 16 cents, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 31.6%. The bottom line declined 11.1% year over year.

Net operating revenues advanced 6.4% year over year to $1.4 billion. The top line beat the consensus mark by 2.6%.

The quarterly earnings suffered due to an elevated expense level, a decline in patient days exerted pressure on profitability in the Critical Illness Recovery Hospital segment and lower revenue per visit did the same for the Outpatient Rehabilitation unit. However, the downside was partially offset by solid revenue growth in the Rehabilitation Hospital segment, driven by higher admissions and improved occupancy.

Select Medical’s Q4 PerformanceTotal costs and expenses were $1.3 billion, which increased 3.2% year over year and came higher than our estimate by 3.9%. The year-over-year rise was due to higher costs of services, exclusive of depreciation and amortization.

Adjusted EBITDA declined 9.8% year over year to $104.7 million and missed our estimate of $126.7 million.

Select Medical’s Segmental UpdateCritical Illness Recovery HospitalThe segment recorded revenues of $629.7 million in the fourth quarter, which grew 4.9% year over year, and surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate of $613.3 million. The unit benefited on the back of a 3% year-over-year increase in admissions and a 5.9% rise in revenue per patient day. Patient days slipped 1% year over year. The occupancy rate remained flat year over year at 67%.

Adjusted EBITDA advanced 5.3% year over year to $66.4 million but fell short of the consensus mark and our estimate of $106.1 million. The adjusted EBITDA margin of 10.5% remained constant year over year.

Rehabilitation HospitalThe unit’s revenues rose 15.2% year over year to $339.2 million, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate of $326.9 million. The favorable performance stemmed from year-over-year increases of 9.6% and 9.8%, respectively, in admissions and patient days. The occupancy rate was 82%, which improved 120 bps year over year in the quarter under review.

Adjusted EBITDA improved 11.1% year over year to $69.2 million, which beat the consensus mark and our estimate of $35.1 million. However, the adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.4% deteriorated 80 bps year over year.

Outpatient RehabilitationRevenues totaled $324.6 million in the segment, which rose 1.6% year over year, and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate of $318.1 million. The unit’s performance was aided by a 4.9% year-over-year increase in visits. Revenue per visit dipped 3.9% year over year.

Adjusted EBITDA tumbled 57.9% year over year to $11.2 million and lagged the consensus mark and our estimate of $41.4 million. The adjusted EBITDA margin of 3.4% deteriorated 490 bps year over year.

Select Medical’s Financial Position (As of Dec. 31, 2025)Select Medical exited the fourth quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $26.5 million, which fell 55.6% from the 2024-end level.

Total assets of $5.9 billion increased 4.3% from the 2024-end figure.

Long-term debt, net of the current portion, amounted to $1.8 billion, up 6.6% from the figure as of Dec. 31, 2024.

Total equity of $2 billion inched up 1.5% from the 2024-end level.

Select Medical generated net cash from operations of $64.3 million in the reported quarter, which fell 48.7% year over year.

Select Medical’s Share Repurchase & Dividend UpdateSelect Medical bought back shares worth around $96.5 million in 2025.

On Feb. 12, 2026, management approved a cash dividend of 6.25 cents per share, which will be paid out on March 12 to its shareholders of record as of March 2.

Select Medical’s 2026 OutlookManagement expects revenues within $5.6-$5.8 billion, the mid-point of which represents a 3.6% increase from the 2025 figure.

Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $520 million and $540 million. EPS is anticipated to be within $1.22-$1.32.

Interest expense is projected to be at $118 million, while depreciation and amortization is estimated at $146 million.

SEM’s Zacks RankSEM currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

How Did Peers Perform?Several companies in the Medical space, including The Cigna Group (CI - Free Report) , UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH - Free Report) and Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV - Free Report) , have already reported their financial results for the December quarter of 2025. Here’s how they had performed:

Cigna reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $8.08, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.7%. The bottom line advanced 22% year over year. The results benefited on the back of strong results from its Evernorth Health Services segment, driven by new business and client relationship expansion, Pharmacy Benefit Services’ strength and improved specialty volumes. However, the upside was partly offset by a decline in Cigna’s medical customers following divestitures to Health Care Services Corporation and an elevated expense level.

UnitedHealth reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of $2.11, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.09. However, the bottom line fell 69% from the year-ago period. The earnings were aided by growth in commercial fee-based membership and the strength witnessed in Optum Rx. However, UnitedHealth’s elevated medical costs and declining risk-based membership partially offset the positives.

Elevance reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of $3.33, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.3%. The bottom line rose 3.1% year over year. The earnings benefited on the back of strong growth in premiums. Segment-wise, the Carelon division posted a robust revenue surge, aided by buyout and scaling risk-based services, while Health Benefits saw increased premium yields and Medicare Advantage membership growth. However, the upside was partly offset by a decline in Elevance’s overall medical membership and an elevated expense level.

Key Takeaways ZETA is set to report 4Q25 results on Feb. 24, with revenues expected to rise 20.9% y/y.Zeta Global's Athena AI platform is expected to drive ROI and platform spending.ZETA's OneZeta and LiveIntent cross-sell efforts likely boosted customer additions and ARPU. Zeta Global (ZETA - Free Report) will release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 24, after market close.

ZETA surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in one of the trailing four quarters, met once and missed twice. The average negative surprise is 9.7%.

ZETA’s Q4 ExpectationsThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for the top line is pinned at $380.5 million. The figure is expected to rise 20.9% from the year-ago quarter’s actual.

The most prominent factor that is likely to have contributed to revenue growth is Zeta Global’s leadership in AI-powered marketing. Athena, launched at Zeta Live, is a breakthrough in human-AI collaboration that eliminates the friction between humans and AI, and acts as a real-time voice-activated command center for the Zeta marketing platform. We anticipate Athena to fuel greater ROI and spend on Zeta’s platform.

OneZeta is a vital growth engine and a growth flywheel for its clients. We expect this offering to aid more customer wins, boosting revenues. We anticipate higher cross-sell of LiveIntent customers and the OneZeta initiative to have propelled super-scaled customer additions, driving the average revenues per user.

The consensus estimate for earnings per share is pegged at 23 cents, suggesting a 15% year-over-year increase. Strong margins are expected to have benefited the bottom line.

What Our Model Says About ZETAOur proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Zeta Globalthis time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

ZETA has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks to ConsiderHere are a few stocks from the broader Business Services sector, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this season.

Barrett Business Services (BBSI - Free Report) : The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 revenues is set at $2.4 billion, hinting at 7.6% year-over-year growth. For earnings, the consensus estimate is pegged at 64 cents per share, suggesting a 1.6% rise from the year-ago quarter’s actual. The company beat the consensus estimate in two of the trailing four quarters, met once and missed in another one, with an average surprise of 18.6%.

BBSI has an Earnings ESP of +4.28% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is scheduled to declare fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 25.

Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI - Free Report) : The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 revenues is pinned at $2.4 billion, indicating a 72.7% year-over-year surge. For earnings per share, the consensus mark is pegged at $3.1, suggesting a marginal year-over-year rise. KSPI surpassed the consensus estimate in one of the past four quarters and missed thrice, with an average negative surprise of 11.8%.

KSPI has an Earnings ESP of +16.13% and a Zacks Rank of 3. It is scheduled to declare fourth-quarter 2025 results on March 2.

Key Takeaways Western Union's Q4 EPS rose 12.5% to 45 cents, beating estimates despite a 5% revenue decline.WU's operating margin expanded 300 bps to 20% as total expenses fell 6% year over year.WU sees 6%-9% revenue growth in 2026 and adjusted EPS of $1.75-$1.85. The Western Union Company (WU - Free Report) reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 45 cents, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.3%. The bottom line grew 12.5% year over year.

Total revenues were $1 billion, which fell 5% on a reported basis. The top line missed the consensus mark by 2.7%.

The quarterly earnings benefited on the back of a declining expense level. The Branded Digital business posted transaction growth. However, the upside was partly offset by a revenue drop in the Consumer Money Transfer (CMT) segment, impacted by weaker transactions.

Q4 Performance of WUThe adjusted operating margin of 20% improved 300 basis points (bps) year over year on the back of cost efficiencies achieved.

Total expenses came in at $823.1 million, which declined 6% year over year in the quarter under review and came lower than our estimate of $859.2 million. This resulted from a fall in the cost of services and selling, general and administrative expenses.

Operating income advanced 4% year over year to $185.3 million, which beat our estimate of $184.5 million.

Segment Analysis of WUThe CMT segment recorded revenues of $871.5 million in the fourth quarter, which slipped 7% year over year. The metric fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $889.5 million and our estimate of $893.6 million.

Operating income improved 3% year over year to $175.4 million. The metric beat the consensus mark of $159.1 million and our estimate of $158 million. The operating income margin improved 200 bps year over year to 20%.

Transactions within the CMT segment on an adjusted basis, excluding Iraq, dipped 2% year over year. However, there was 13% transaction growth in the Branded Digital business. Branded Digital revenues, which accounted for 30% of CMT’s fourth-quarter revenues, rose 7% on a reported basis and 6% on an adjusted basis.

The CS segment’s revenues climbed 15% year over year on a reported basis and 26% on an adjusted basis to $136.9 million in the quarter under review. However, the metric missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $147.6 million and our estimate of $150.1 million.

Operating income totaled $23.2 million, which increased from the year-ago figure of $13.4 million. The metric missed the consensus mark of $35.3 million and our estimate of $34.8 million. The operating income margin improved 600 bps year over year to 17%.

WU’s Financial Position (As of Dec. 31, 2025)Western Union exited the fourth quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $1.2 billion, which plunged 16.3% from the 2024-end level. Total assets of $8.3 billion declined 0.8% from the figure at 2024-end.

Borrowings were $2.9 billion, down 2.1% from the figure as of Dec. 31, 2024.

Total stockholders' equity of $957.8 million slid 1.1% from the 2024-end level.

WU generated net cash from operations of $543.7 million in 2025, which soared 33.8% from the prior-year comparable period.

Western Union’s Capital DeploymentWestern Union rewarded its shareholders with $305 million in the form of dividends and $225 million in share buybacks in 2025.

WU’s 2026 ViewManagement anticipates adjusted revenue growth to be between 6% and 9%.

Adjusted EPS is forecasted to be in the range of $1.75-$1.85, the mid-point of which indicates a 2.9% improvement from the 2025 reported figure of $1.75.

GAAP EPS is currently forecasted within the band of $1.50-$1.60, the mid-point of which implies 2% growth from the 2025 figure of $1.52.

WU’s Zacks RankWU currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

How Did Peers Perform?Several companies in the business services space, including Mastercard Incorporated (MA - Free Report) , Visa Inc. (V - Free Report) and Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH - Free Report) , have also reported their financial results for the December quarter of 2025. Here’s how they had performed:

Mastercard reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $4.76 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 13.3%. The bottom line improved 25% year over year. The quarterly results were aided by growing cross-border volumes, an increase in switched transactions and solid growth in value-added services revenues. However, the upside was partly offset by MA’s elevated operating expenses due to acquisitions and administrative costs.

Visa reported first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings per share (EPS) of $3.17, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.14. The bottom line increased 15% year over year. The quarterly results benefited from higher payments and cross-border volumes. Resilient consumer spending remains a tailwind. However, the upside was partly offset by V’s increased operating expenses and lower-than-expected processed transactions.

Marsh reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of $2.12, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.6%. The bottom line advanced 10% year over year. The quarterly results benefited from solid growth in the Risk and Insurance Services and Consulting unit, particularly from the Guy Carpenter, Mercer and Marsh Management Consulting businesses. However, the upside was partially offset by MRSH’s elevated operating expenses, primarily due to increased compensation and benefits.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

The author always has positions in commodities markets in futures, options, ETF/ETN products, and commodity equities. These long and short positions tend to change on an intraday basis.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Journalist

Posted: February 20, 2026

Institutional interest in a L1 blockchain is a clear indication of conviction. In this context, Solana [SOL] is emerging as a noteworthy example.

On the technical side though, SOL continues to lag behind. Over the past month alone, it has seen a 30% pullback. At the time of writing, there were no signs of a bullish reversal either. 

Despite the pullback, however, Solana’s institutional interest has been strong. In fact, SOL ETFs saw $2.39 million in net inflows, extending a six-day streak. On the other hand, Bitcoin [BTC] and Ethereum [ETH] ETFs have continued to see outflows.

Source: SolanaFloor

From a fundamental perspective, this trend makes sense. 

As a competing L1, Solana has been leading its peers in terms of 24-hour DApp revenue, generating $3.43 million at press time. This is evidence of not only robust network usage, but also strong developer activity. Even amid recent price weakness.

Taken together, the mix of strong institutional flows and high network activity makes it clear that smart money remains bullish on Solana. This highlights a meaningful divergence from typical market behavior.

Naturally, the question remains – What exactly is setting Solana apart?

Solana’s revenue dive masks a boost in capital efficiency In a risk-off market, maintaining confidence in a L1 isn’t easy. 

The logic is simple – Network activity slows down during periods of volatility, which squeezes the capital a chain can generate from transaction fees. In this environment, efficiently managing revenue becomes critical.

However, Solana is demonstrating that it can thrive even when activity cools down. Its app revenue capture ratio (the amount of revenue apps generate per dollar spent in network fees) jumped from 262% to 375% last quarter. 

Source: X

In other words, for every $1 in fees, DApps are pulling in $3.75 in revenue – A sign of how the network is becoming more capital-efficient despite lower activity. This is a key metric that institutional investors closely watch.

Against this backdrop, it’s no surprise that Solana is seeing stronger institutional inflows. Its high revenue per dollar of activity translates into better returns for developers and investors, reinforcing confidence.

Moreover, this creates a bullish signal for developers. It’s evidence that even though SOL is one of the weaker assets amid current FUD, the network is positioned to continue outperforming. This will make Solana a key institutional hub heading into future cycles.

Final Summary Solana has continued to attract institutional money, extending a six-day streak as far as ETF inflows are concerned.  Despite a 30% price pullback, its DApps are earning $3.75 per $1 in network fees.

Dogecoin is once again approaching a technical inflection point that has historically preceded explosive upside. According to crypto chartist and pattern analyst @TATrader_Alan, the meme coin is completing a structural setup that has already delivered two major parabolic advances. If the pattern resolves the same way for a third time, the projected upside could extend toward the $2 level, representing roughly a 2,000% move from the broader base region.

Dogecoin’s Third Solid Base  In a recent monthly timeframe analysis on X, the chartist pointed to what he describes as a recurring “Solid Base” formation. He notes that Dogecoin has completed this structure twice in prior cycles. On both occasions, the base-building phase was followed by rapid vertical expansion in price.

The chart highlights prolonged consolidation zones where the price compresses over an extended period. These zones are characterized by reduced volatility, gradual accumulation, and tightening ranges. In previous cycles, this compression phase acted as stored momentum. Once the price cleared the upper boundary of the structure, the move accelerated quickly into a parabolic markup phase.

Source: Chart from Trader Tardigrade on X The current setup, as shown on the monthly chart, mirrors those earlier formations. Price action has once again spent significant time consolidating within a defined range, forming a clearly visible base. The analyst emphasizes that Dogecoin is now positioned at the edge of this third structure, suggesting that the compression phase may be nearing completion.

Historically, the first two bases led to exponential rallies that dwarfed the preceding consolidation periods. The implication is not based on short-term speculation but on repeating structural behavior visible across multi-year cycles. The measured expansion from previous breakouts, when applied proportionally to the present base, supports the possibility of a move that could extend toward the $2 region if momentum unfolds in a similar fashion.

Cup And Handle Pattern Reinforces Breakout Case On the daily timeframe, the chartist further identifies a classical continuation structure forming within the broader macro base. He outlines a Cup and Handle pattern developing in real time, reinforcing the larger bullish thesis.

According to the chart, Dogecoin formed a rounded bottom with price dipping to approximately $0.08 before gradually recovering. The rally then carried the price to around $0.11, establishing the rim of the cup. Following that advance, the price began consolidating just below resistance, shaping the handle portion of the formation.

This configuration is widely regarded as a bullish continuation setup, particularly when it forms within a larger accumulation structure. The handle reflects short-term profit-taking and controlled pullback. If price breaks decisively above the handle’s resistance level, the pattern typically projects a continuation move in the direction of the prevailing trend.

Combined with the multi-year solid base structure on the monthly chart, the Cup and Handle adds a shorter-term trigger mechanism to the broader breakout narrative. Should resistance give way, the alignment of macro accumulation and classical continuation geometry would position Dogecoin for a move that, based on historical precedent, could extend dramatically higher and potentially validate the $2 target.

DOGE trading at $0.09 on the 1D chart | Source: DOGEUSDT on Tradingview.com Featured Image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com

Published: February 20, 2026 │ 3:59 PM GMT

The analyst behind a recent deep-dive on Bitcoin’s “institutional era” argues that the network hasn’t broken, but its original mission has quietly morphed. Bitcoin was designed as peer-to-peer electronic cash, outside banks and governments.

Today, some of its largest holders are the very institutions it set out to bypass — and that, Fire Hustle says, is reshaping how the asset trades and who holds the real power.

ETFs, Mega-Holders & a New Kind Of “Demand Floor”She also zeroes in on two intertwined trends: spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries. MicroStrategy alone now controls more than 700,000 BTC, according to Fire Hustle, while BlackRock’s IBIT spot ETF has amassed a comparable stash. Together, they hold over 7% of total supply — closer to 9% once lost coins are factored in.

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That concentration cuts both ways: on one hand, fewer coins circulating means “any surge in demand has a bigger impact on price.” On the other, forced selling by a few large actors could trigger violent draw-downs.

Fire Hustle points to February 5, when a sharp Bitcoin drop was driven not by retail panic but by “large over-leveraged players forced to liquidate,” cascading into broader losses.

Spot ETFs have already seen tens of billions in net inflows since launch, but the stress test came with the recent correction. Outflows spiked into the hundreds of millions per day, more than a billion over a week, with IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC among the biggest sources.

Yet, a day after one of the sharpest dips, ETFs swung back to over $300 million in net inflows. For the analyst, this shows a volatile but persistent institutional bid — “that’s what a demand floor looks like.”

Bitcoin’s Price Now Trades Like a Tech StockInstitutional adoption hasn’t only changed who owns Bitcoin; it’s changed how it behaves. The analyst notes Bitcoin’s recent price action now tracks a major software ETF (BlackRock’s IGV fund) on weekly and monthly charts. When high-growth tech rallies, Bitcoin rallies; when tech sells off, Bitcoin follows.

That correlation means Bitcoin has become a recognizable “risk asset” for big money, tied to interest-rate expectations, liquidity conditions, and broader risk-on/risk-off sentiment. Retail traders can no longer rely solely on crypto-native catalysts — they now need to watch macro and tech-sector flows.

Shrinking Reserves & The Quiet Structural ShiftUnder the surface, several on-chain and market metrics suggest a more entrenched, institutionalized ecosystem. Exchange reserves sit near multi-year lows at roughly 2.5–3 million BTC across major platforms, even after a 50% draw-down from the top.

In previous cycles, similar drops pushed coins back onto exchanges; this time, the analyst says, “that’s not happening.” More coins are in long-term custody, and fewer are being panic-sold.

Stablecoin supply, around $300 billion, has held up through recent volatility, with fresh minting from Tether and Circle.

Every new dollar of stablecoins is backed by assets such as U.S. Treasuries — Tether alone reportedly holds around $100 billion — creating a feedback loop: stablecoin growth drives Treasury demand, which in turn encourages regulators to keep the plumbing in place.

The analyst also flags the U.S. government’s holdings of over 300,000 seized BTC and the slow creep of Bitcoin into 401(k) retirement plans. Even a 1% allocation across U.S. retirement assets, if it ever materialized, would represent “massive structural demand” with decades-long time horizons.

Has Bitcoin Failed Its Mission— Or Just Evolved?Whether Bitcoin “failed” depends on which mission you emphasize. If the goal was a fully decentralized system with no institutional involvement, the analyst concedes, “we moved away from that.” But the core protocol remains intact: a capped 21 million supply, permissionless transfers, and no single controller.

The bigger shift is sociological: who is accumulating the asset and how it’s being used. Institutions now set the tone, and Bitcoin trades in sync with tech and macro liquidity. For investors, that means opportunity and risk exist on a new playing field.

The analyst urges viewers to track ETF flows, corporate treasury moves, stablecoin minting, exchange reserves, and macro conditions — not just headlines about halvings or on-chain upgrades.

For crypto investors, this institutional turn may not look like Satoshi’s original blueprint, but it is building deeper liquidity, more robust infrastructure, and new channels of demand. The cost is greater exposure to the same forces that move equities and credit markets. Navigating Bitcoin now requires understanding both blockchains and balance sheets.

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People Also Ask:Is institutional ownership bad for small Bitcoin holders?

It raises concentration risk and makes markets more sensitive to large players, but also creates stronger demand floors and deeper liquidity.

Do ETF outflows mean institutions are abandoning Bitcoin?

Not necessarily. The analyst frames recent outflows as rotation and risk management; net inflows since launch remain in the tens of billions.

Why does Bitcoin trade like a tech stock now?

Because institutions treat it as a high-beta risk asset, its price is increasingly driven by the same macro factors that move growth and software equities.

What indicators should investors watch in this new regime?

Exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, corporate treasury disclosures, stablecoin supply changes, exchange reserves, and broader macro liquidity conditions.

DailyCoin's Vibe Check: Which way are you leaning towards after reading this article?

Market Sentiment

100% Bullish

Ethereum’s new roadmap lands in a market that is less interested in vision and more interested in evidence.

That is the core tension behind the Ethereum Foundation’s Protocol Priorities Update for 2026, which breaks the network’s next phase into three tracks, including Scale, Improve UX, and Harden the L1.

The roadmap is technical, but the market question is not. Investors want to know whether these priorities can help ETH recover in this bear market, and whether they can do so by changing risk and economics rather than just developer sentiment.

That is why the Foundation’s framing matters. It is not selling one upgrade. It presents a system-level argument that Ethereum can simultaneously increase capacity, reduce user friction, and harden the base layer.

If that works, the market may assign a lower risk premium to ETH and become more willing to pay for Ethereum’s long-term role as a settlement layer.

Scale is where the economic case gets judgedThe most market-relevant part of the 2026 roadmap sits in the Scale track.

The Ethereum Foundation says the community has already raised Ethereum’s gas limit from 30 million to 60 million, the first significant increase since 2021.

The next target is progress toward and beyond 100 million, with execution and data availability work organized more tightly.

That is not just engineering housekeeping. It is a direct response to a competitive pressure that has defined this cycle.

Ethereum needs to support more economic activity without pricing out users, while preserving the decentralization and neutrality that made institutions comfortable with the chain in the first place.

In light of this, two pieces inside the Scale track matter most for market structure.

One is ePBS (enshrined proposer-builder separation), which the Foundation identifies as part of Glamsterdam’s scaling components, alongside repricings and additional increases to the blob parameter.

ePBS is deeply technical, but its market significance is clearer than it looks. It addresses a long-standing concern about MEV extraction and the centralization pressure in block building.

If block production becomes more predictable and more credibly neutral, Ethereum reduces one of the structural risks that has made some investors cautious about its long-term security and governance profile.

The second is the zkEVM attester client, which the Foundation says is moving from prototype to production readiness.

That is an important signal because it suggests Ethereum’s future scaling is not only about external rollups operating on the base chain. It is also about making verification and proving feel more native to Ethereum’s core stack, and more robust in a way institutions can underwrite.

Put simply, the Scale track is not only about throughput. It is about preserving Ethereum’s economic relevance while reducing the perception that scaling requires too many tradeoffs.

That matters for price, but indirectly. Markets usually reward higher capacity only when they believe the added capacity can support durable, monetizable demand.

UX and L1 hardening are the risk premium storyThe other two tracks, Improve UX and Harden the L1, deliver less immediate headlines, but they may yield more for Ethereum’s discount rate over time.

The Foundation says 2026 usability work will focus on native account abstraction and interoperability, with the goal of making smart contract wallets the default without the bundler and relayer complexity that slowed earlier designs.

It also points to EIP-7701 and EIP-8141 as steps toward embedding smart-account logic more directly in the protocol.

This sounds like product design, but it is also a market issue.

Wallet friction remains one of the biggest hidden obstacles to broader adoption. Cheaper transactions do not matter much if onboarding still feels complex and error-prone.

If Ethereum can reduce the number of signatures, simplify cross-chain behavior, and make wallets safer by default, it improves the odds that consumer and enterprise activity actually sticks.

The Foundation also ties this work to post-quantum readiness, arguing that native account abstraction creates a cleaner migration path away from today’s ECDSA-based authentication, while work continues to make quantum-resistant signature verification more gas-efficient.

That is not a near-term catalyst, but it is exactly the kind of future-proofing that long-duration capital tends to notice.

The Harden the L1 track completes the message.

The Foundation frames it as preserving core properties through security hardening, censorship-resistance research, and stronger test infrastructure to support a faster fork cadence.

It points to the Trillion Dollar Security Initiative and work such as post-execution transaction assertions and trustless RPCs. It also highlights FOCIL (EIP-7805), plus extensions spanning blobs and statelessness research, and an effort to develop measurable censorship-resistance metrics.

For institutional allocators, this is not optional. It is the base case.

Ethereum increasingly competes for roles that demand high trust, including stablecoin settlement, tokenized funds, and other real-world financial use cases.

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Those markets care less about headline transaction counts than they do about whether the base layer remains secure, neutral, and predictable under stress.

The Foundation is trying to show that Ethereum can scale without weakening those properties.

If markets believe that, the reward is not only more usage. It is a lower perceived risk premium for ETH.

Ethereum still has gravity, but the fee story looks weakDespite all of these great plans, the problem is that ETH trades on current optics as much as future design.

Right now, Ethereum’s fundamentals describe a network that is functional and active, but optically cheap on the metric many investors still use to judge ETH’s value capture, fees.

Gas prices are around 0.038 gwei on Etherscan’s tracker, which is extremely low. YCharts puts Ethereum network transaction fees per day at about 140.8 ETH, down roughly 40% year over year.

That is good for users and builders. It supports adoption. It makes more applications economically viable.

However, it also weakens the cleanest version of the post-EIP-1559 narrative. If transactions are cheap, and fee revenue stays low, then more usage does not automatically translate into stronger burn and tighter supply.

In other words, Ethereum can be winning on utility while still looking weak on the scoreboard that many ETH investors watch first.

Ethereum Transaction Fees and Network Activity (Source: Token Terminal)This is where Ethereum’s role has shifted rather than shrunk.

The network still anchors a large part of the on-chain economy, but more of that economic activity now sits across its layer 2 networks.

Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum, recently acknowledged this problem and conceded that Ethereum needs “a new path” that relies less on layer-2 networks.

According to him:

“The original vision of L2s and their role in Ethereum no longer makes sense, and we need a new path.”

However, as these networks mature, the open question is how much of that growth accrues to ETH, and how quickly investors can see it in the numbers.

What would make the roadmap matter to ETH price?So, can the Ethereum Foundation’s priorities help ETH recover from this bear market? Yes, but mostly by improving the setup quality.

This is consistent with asset manager 21Shares’ position, which ties ETH upside to specific conditions.

This includes the need for L2 activity to either drive a rebound in ETH burn or introduce structural mechanisms that better align L2 value accrual with mainnet economics.

The new roadmap can help achieve this if Ethereum moves toward and beyond 100 million gas, advances blob scaling, makes smart wallets feel native, and preserves censorship resistance and security at the base layer.

This would improve the odds that Ethereum remains the preferred settlement layer for on-chain dollars and tokenized assets. It can also make the next adoption wave easier to underwrite.

However, what it cannot do on its own is force ETF inflows to reverse or instantly restore a high-fee regime.

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TL;DR: Analyst Remi Relief projects XRP could reach between $1,200 and $1,697 if it replicates the fractal pattern from the 2017/2018 cycle. The approval of the Clarity Act, which Ripple's CEO said could be signed before April, is considered a key regulatory catalyst.

After the aggressive sell-off toward the $1.8K region, the market has transitioned into choppy consolidation, while lower timeframes are now approaching a decisive breakout point. The key question is whether this compression resolves to the upside or results in continuation within the dominant downtrend structure.

Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart On the daily timeframe, ETH continues to trade inside a descending channel, with the midline acting as dynamic resistance and the $1.8K region serving as a firm structural base. Following the aggressive sell-off, the price action has turned increasingly choppy, printing overlapping candles and minor retracements rather than impulsive continuation. This behavior signals equilibrium and indecision.

The consolidation remains confined between the channel’s mid-boundary above and the $1.8K demand zone below. Each attempt to push higher has been capped before reclaiming a meaningful resistance cluster, while sellers have failed to generate a decisive breakdown beneath the base. Until one of these boundaries is violated, the dominant expectation is continued range-bound fluctuation.

A confirmed breakout above the midline would open the path toward the next resistance zone around the $2.3K–$2.5K region. Conversely, losing $1.8K would invalidate the equilibrium and likely trigger another bearish impulse.

ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart On the 4-hour timeframe, the price compression is more evident. ETH has formed a clear triangle pattern, defined by descending resistance and rising support. The structure reflects volatility contraction and is now approaching its apex, suggesting that a breakout is imminent.

The recent higher lows inside the pattern indicate improving short-term demand, increasing the probability of an upside resolution. However, as long as ETH remains capped below the 0.5 Fib at $2,396, the structure remains technically corrective within a broader downtrend.

A confirmed breakout above the triangle, followed by a reclaim of $2,396, would shift short-term momentum toward the 0.618 level at $2,549 and potentially the 0.702–0.786 retracement cluster near $2,658–$2,767, which also coincides with a marked supply zone on the chart.

On the downside, failure to break upward and a decisive loss of the triangle’s ascending support would expose the $1,800–$1,746 base once again. In that scenario, the recent consolidation would resolve as a continuation pattern rather than a reversal attempt.

At this stage, ETH is at a technical inflection point, with Fibonacci resistance levels clearly defining the upside targets and the $1.8K base anchoring the downside risk.

Sentiment Analysis The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio across all exchanges provides additional context for the current equilibrium. The ratio has remained below the 1.0 threshold for a prolonged period, indicating that aggressive market sells have dominated overall order flow. This aligns with the broader bearish structure observed on higher timeframes.

However, the recent rebound in the ratio and the stabilization of its 30-day EMA suggest that selling pressure may be weakening. Although buyers have not yet taken full control, the gradual recovery toward the neutral level signals improving demand. If the ratio decisively moves above 1.0 and sustains that level, it would confirm aggressive market buying and increase the probability of an upside breakout from the triangle structure.

Overall, Ethereum is positioned at a technical and derivatives inflection point. The daily chart reflects equilibrium, the 4-hour chart shows imminent compression resolution, and order-flow metrics suggest that bearish dominance is softening. A decisive break from the current structure will likely define the next impulsive phase.

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Bitcoin ETFs posted a third consecutive day of outflows, shedding $166 million, while ether funds lost $130 million. Solana and XRP ETFs, however, attracted fresh inflows, signaling selective investor positioning. Solana and XRP Gain as Bitcoin, Ether Slide Again Another day, another wave of redemptions for bitcoin funds. Thursday, Feb.

TLDR Table of Contents

TLDRRLUSD Supply ExpansionBroader Ripple Stablecoin ActivityGet 3 Free Stock Ebooks Ripple minted 20 million RLUSD tokens, which increased the stablecoin’s circulating supply. The total RLUSD supply reached 1.53 billion tokens after the latest issuance. Etherscan confirmed that the transaction was completed through the Ripple Deployer wallet. Market data showed RLUSD trading close to its $1 value with strong daily volume. The new mint improved liquidity for exchanges and payments across the Ethereum network. Ripple expanded its Ripple USD (RLUSD) supply after minting new tokens valued at $20 million on Feb. 19, 2026, and the move increased on-chain liquidity across Ethereum as trading activity remained steady.

RLUSD Supply Expansion Ripple increased circulation by issuing 20 million RLUSD tokens from its treasury, and the transfer occurred through a confirmed Ethereum transaction. The issuer used a wallet tagged “Ripple: Deployer,” and the transaction finalized within seconds.

The mint raised the total supply to 1.53 billion tokens, and this placed RLUSD in the mid-range of dollar stablecoins. Market trackers showed its supply well below USD-pegged leaders, and this included USDT at more than $183 billion.

The updated supply followed ongoing plans linked to Ripple’s stablecoin operations, and these plans also include custody features. Ripple has positioned RLUSD for institutional usage, and this extends to settlement and treasury applications.

Market data indicated RLUSD traded near its $1 level, and daily volume passed $100 million. The activity pointed to active movement of tokens, and trackers did not show dormant balances.

Traders saw the new issue expand available liquidity, and this affected exchange pairs on Ethereum. The adjustment improved depth for payment flows, and it also supported potential DeFi integrations.

The 20 million increase supported short-term usage, and analysts observed rising flows in recent sessions. The outcome raised liquidity pools on several platforms, and the movement provided fresh inventory for market operations.

Ripple continued issuing RLUSD when demand increased, and institutions often required new supply for settlements. Treasury rebalancing also influenced issuance timing, and exchanges sometimes requested reserves for trading support.

Data from monitoring platforms confirmed the circulation boost, and the figures aligned with blockchain records. Etherscan listed the transaction with a completed status, and the details confirmed the minting amount.

Broader Ripple Stablecoin Activity Ripple advanced its ecosystem strategy during the period, and RLUSD remained a core part of this effort. The firm linked the stablecoin to future tokenization channels, and these included institutional workflows.

The ecosystem plan also extended to cross-border settlement, and RLUSD played a role in pilot processes. The stablecoin supported regulated flows, and the updates created new balance points for liquidity teams.

New issuance often reflected fresh institutional requests, and Ripple adjusted supply when market flows changed. Exchanges gained additional resources for trading pairs, and the change bolstered available depth.

Over the years, the UAE has increased its Bitcoin holdings through mining and ETF purchases, with exposure now exceeding $1 billion.

Changpeng Zhao (CZ), founder and former CEO of the world’s largest crypto exchange, Binance, has revealed his role in the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) Bitcoin adoption.

In a tweet highlighting information that the UAE has formally recognized bitcoin (BTC) as a store of value similar to gold, CZ disclosed that his advocacy contributed to the development.

CZ Influenced the UAE’s Bitcoin Adoption “I might have done a tiny bit of advocacy for this,” the Binance founder said.

It is no news that CZ established his primary residence in Dubai in 2021, due to the city’s pro-crypto and forward-thinking environment. His presence in the city and influence on prominent figures have certainly affected their stance on Bitcoin and the crypto industry as a whole.

Over the years, the UAE has increased its Bitcoin exposure through mining and the purchase of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). By 2022, Abu Dhabi’s royal family had ventured into Bitcoin mining through its affiliated firm, Citadel Mining. The royal family, through Citadel, established large-scale mining operations on AI Reem Island and has since amassed over $450 million in bitcoin.

Earlier today, the market intelligence platform, Arkham, revealed that the UAE has mined $453.6 BTC. On-chain data shows the entity has been holding the majority of BTC produced, with its last outflow recorded 4 months ago. The royal family is now $344 million in profit on their BTC, minus energy costs.

UAE’s Bitcoin Exposure Crosses $1B Besides the Bitcoin mining ventures, two major Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth entities, namely Mubadala Investment Company and Al Warda Investments, have purchased millions of shares in spot Bitcoin ETFs. By the end of 2025, the companies had amassed more than $1 billion in combined holdings of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT).

Separate 13F filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) revealed that by the end of last year, Mubadala held over 12.7 million shares in IBIT. On the other hand, Al Warda owned at least 8.21 million shares of the same product. The shares were worth $631 million and $408 million, respectively.

You may also like: Will Crypto Markets React to $2B Bitcoin Options Expiring Today? Bitcoin Network Stagnation: Active Supply Plateaus as Price Volatility Fades Bitcoin Range-Bound Under Pressure as Analysts Eye $55,000 Although the value of the ETF shares has plummeted alongside bitcoin’s price, the combined Bitcoin exposure for the UAE remains well above $1 billion. With the government recognizing BTC as a store of value, the cryptocurrency is likely to be treated as a permanent reserve asset going forward.

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Bitcoin Multi-Year Lifeline Faces Critical Test as Supreme Court Weighs Trump’s Tariffs | US Crypto News Prefer us on Google

Supreme Court weighs legality of Trump tariffs.Prediction markets favor tariffs being struck down.Bitcoin faces volatility amid macro uncertainty.Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

Grab a coffee. Bitcoin’s multi-year lifeline is on the line—not because of anything it did, but because of decisions being made in a courtroom far from Wall Street.

Crypto News of the Day: Supreme Court Ruling on Trump’s Tariffs Poised to Shake Markets and BitcoinBitcoin and risk assets in general face heightened volatility on February 20, 2026, as the U.S. Supreme Court prepares to issue its long-awaited ruling on the legality of President Trump’s 2025 tariffs.

The decision, expected at 10:00 AM ET, could have sweeping implications for trade, government revenue, and global markets.

The case, consolidated as Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump and Trump v. V.O.S. Selections, Inc., challenges whether Trump had the legal authority to impose broad tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977.

While IEEPA allows the President to address “unusual and extraordinary threats” to national security or the economy, it does not explicitly authorize sweeping trade tariffs.

Lower courts have twice ruled against the administration, setting the stage for the Supreme Court’s opinion.

Prediction markets suggest a high likelihood of illegality, with Polymarket pricing roughly a 26% chance that the Supreme Court will uphold the tariffs.

Odds of the Supreme Court Ruling in Favor of Trump’s Tariffs. Source: PolymarketThe odds are almost identical on prediction market Kalshi, where bettors wager on a 25.7% chance that the court rules in favor of Trump’s tariffs. Notably, crowd bets on Kalshi are gaining more authority of late.

Odds of the Supreme Court Ruling in Favor of Trump’s Tariffs. Source: KalshiIf upheld, tariffs would remain in place, potentially escalating trade tensions with Canada, the EU, China, and other partners. If struck down, importers could be entitled to refunds of duties collected since early 2025.

The $600 Billion Tariff Claim: Reality vs. HypeNotably, some media and crypto commentators have cited Trump’s repeated claim that his tariffs generated $600 billion in revenue. However, neutral analyses, including the Penn-Wharton Budget Model, place the actual exposure at $133–$179 billion, a fraction of the widely referenced figure.

Notwithstanding, even at these lower levels, the financial impact could ripple through markets, with traders anticipating “pure chaos” as markets price in:

Potential refunds Emergency replacement tariffs, and Retaliatory actions from trade partners. 🚨 THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE WORST TIME OF 2026!!

Polymarket is pricing a 74% chance the Supreme Court rules Trump’s tariffs illegal TODAY.

US–China tariffs → cancelled
US–EU tariffs → cancelled
US–Canada tariffs → cancelled

And this is the part nobody tells you about:… https://t.co/jcpCdYTvX5 pic.twitter.com/CfxfObqO0w

— 0xNobler (@CryptoNobler) February 20, 2026 Crypto, equities, and bond markets are all expected to experience turbulence, with liquidity swings and risk-off sentiment particularly affecting Bitcoin in the short term.

BTC’s market capitalization was $1.35 trillion, with prices trading for $67,445 as of this writing.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: BeInCryptoA Perfect Storm: Supreme Court Ruling Meets Key Economic DataThe timing of the Supreme Court ruling coincides with other key US economic data releases, including Q4 GDP, the PCE Price Index, and the Manufacturing PMI. These may amplify market volatility.

BIG DAY FOR THE MARKETS 🚨

❶ US Q4 GDP data at 8:30am ET
Expectations: 3%

❷ PCE Price Index at 8:30am ET
Expectations: 2.8%

❸ Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am ET
Expectations: 52.6

Along with this, the Supreme Court tariffs ruling will also happen today at 10am ET. pic.twitter.com/YRKZgla49T

— Max Crypto (@MaxCrypto) February 20, 2026 Meanwhile, the Supreme Court’s decision carries broader implications for executive authority and fiscal policy.

A ruling against Trump could require the Treasury to process hundreds of billions in refunds, widening deficits and potentially prompting emergency legislation or alternative trade measures.

For crypto traders, this translates into a period of elevated uncertainty, in which macro shocks and risk sentiment can drive market swings independent of fundamentals.

Whether Bitcoin holds its multi-year lifeline or succumbs to a volatility surge will depend in large part on the legal and economic fallout of this landmark decision.

Chart of the DayBitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: TradingViewByte-Sized AlphaHere’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:

Metaplanet CEO fires back at critics as $1.2 billion Bitcoin paper losses mount. US spot Bitcoin ETFs post largest cycle drawdown, balances fall by 100,300 BTC. Silver supply crisis looms as Binance hits $70 billion volume in precious metals like gold. Ethereum struggles below $2,000, yet BitMine sees a rebound: Here’s what they’re watching. Blue Owl halts redemptions amid private credit stress: Will crypto feel the impact? Bitcoin hashrate shows a V-Shaped recovery — Will Bitcoin price follow? CZ networks freely at Mar-a-Lago amid Binance’s USD1 surge. Crypto Equities Pre-Market OverviewCompanyClose As of February 19Pre-Market OverviewStrategy (MSTR)$129.45$130.53 (+0.83%)Coinbase (COIN)$165.94$167.03 (+0.66%)Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY)$21.63$21.54 (-0.42%)MARA Holdings (MARA)$7.96$8.00 (+0.50%)Riot Platforms (RIOT)$16.22$16.20 (-0.12%)Core Scientific (CORZ)$17.98$17.68 (-1.67%)Crypto equities market open race: Google FinanceDisclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.

Large Ethereum [ETH] holders withdrew over 17,000 ETH from major exchanges within hours, intensifying accumulation signals across markets.

Tom Lee’s Bitmine withdrew 10,000 ETH from Kraken in a single transaction, removing a substantial block of liquidity from the exchange. 

In a separate move, another newly created wallet pulled 7,000 ETH from Binance within the same time window. 

The wallet now holds more than 7,100 ETH, reflecting concentrated positioning rather than short-term speculation. These back-to-back withdrawals highlight deliberate accumulation by large players. 

By shifting ETH into private wallets, these entities reduce immediate sell-side supply and reinforce a tightening liquidity environment.

A structural turning point ahead? Ethereum continues to trade within a long‑term descending channel on the daily chart, with price now testing the lower boundary of this structure. Key horizontal levels are marked at $2,797, $2,261, and $1,818. 

Recently, ETH hovered around $1,954, sitting just above the $1,818 support zone, which closely aligns with the channel’s lower trendline.

However, sellers still control the broader structure until price reclaims mid-channel resistance. Buyers must defend this zone to prevent structural breakdown. 

A sustained hold above $1,818 would maintain channel integrity. Conversely, a decisive breach would expose deeper downside risk toward prior demand zones. 

Source: TradingView

Meanwhile, the MACD line at -198.86 has already crossed above the signal line at -223.98, at press time, confirming a bullish crossover on the daily timeframe. 

Although both lines remain below the zero level, momentum clearly shifts in favor of buyers. The histogram printed green bars at 25.11, showing expanding positive momentum after a prolonged bearish phase. 

This crossover signals that selling pressure has weakened considerably. Buyers now attempt to rebuild strength from deeply negative territory. 

Importantly, this shift follows weeks of sustained downside movement inside the descending channel. If histogram expansion continues, momentum could support a broader relief move rather than a minor bounce.

Decoding ETH’s accumulation narrative Spot netflow data shows persistent negative readings across recent sessions. The latest data, at press time, printed -$7.06 million, reflecting net outflows from exchanges. 

Red bars dominate the chart, highlighting sustained capital migration off trading platforms. Large historical spikes also show heavy withdrawals during prior accumulation phases. 

This consistent pattern strengthens the supply contraction thesis. When investors remove ETH from exchanges, they reduce immediate sell pressure. 

Furthermore, outflows often precede structural stabilization phases. Although price remains under pressure, exchange balances continue shrinking. 

This divergence between price weakness and capital outflow supports the broader whale accumulation argument.

Source: CoinGlass

Funding rates explode as leverage builds At press time, Funding Rates were at 0.002620, reflecting a sharp +249.75% surge. Such elevated positive funding reveals aggressive long positioning in perpetual markets. Traders increasingly pay premiums to maintain long exposure. 

This surge signals strong speculative conviction but also increases risk. Crowded long positioning can trigger volatility if the price fails to rebound. 

However, leverage expansion often accompanies early recovery attempts. The divergence between spot accumulation and rising leverage creates a complex structure. 

Whales absorb supply while derivatives traders amplify exposure. This dynamic sets the stage for heightened volatility as both sides test conviction.

Source: CryptoQuant

Are whales quietly building Ethereum’s base? Whales continue absorbing ETH as exchange outflows persist and momentum begins stabilizing. Meanwhile, leveraged traders expand long exposure aggressively. 

Price still trades within a descending channel, yet structural support holds near $1,818. If buyers defend this zone and momentum strengthens further, ETH could attempt a recovery toward mid-channel resistance. 

However, failure to sustain support would increase liquidation risks given elevated funding levels. 

Overall, coordinated accumulation and tightening supply suggest that large players are positioning for a potential stabilization rather than an immediate breakdown.

Final Summary Large holders continue removing supply from exchanges, signaling deliberate long-term positioning. However, sustained accumulation must align with structural strength to confirm a durable base.

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) enters the weekend within striking distance of a key Bollinger Bands level, with the price of the coin now sitting about 2.65% below the midline of it midband, represented by the 20-day moving average — a threshold often associated with a transition from corrective structure to early recovery.

On the daily SHIB/USDT chart by TradingView, the coin is changing hands near $0.00000626, while the 20-day simple moving average, which forms the basis of the Bollinger Bands, stands near $0.00000635. A confirmed close above that zone would position SHIB back inside the upper half of the bands — the one the coin lost this week after a 3.23% sell-off.

Identifying SHIB’s recovery targets and downside risksSince early January, SHIB has trended lower from the $0.000009 region, printing a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. The lower Bollinger Band recently compressed near $0.0000056, where buyers stepped in, producing a bounce that briefly pushed the price toward $0.000007. That rebound stalled, but the token has not revisited its February low, suggesting supply may be thinning at the margin.

HOT Stories

Historically, such compression phases precede directional moves, though not always upward. A daily close above $0.00000635 would open the path toward the upper band near $0.000007, which now aligns with visible horizontal resistance.

Daily SHIB/USDT chart by TradingViewFebruary has historically produced mixed results for SHIB, with prior years showing both double-digit gains and drawdowns of the same scale. Current monthly performance remains negative too.

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For now, a decisive reclaiming of the midband would mark the first improvement since January. Failure to hold above $0.000006 would likely return focus to the $0.0000056 support area, which is 10% below the current price point. 

The 2% gap is small in absolute terms, but in the current market environment for the Shiba Inu coin, it defines the difference between stabilization and continuation.

The tool targets a range of application types including NFT minting portals, token-based games, governance frameworks, and financial protocols.

Sonic Labs, the developer of the Sonic blockchain, has unveiled Spawn, an AI-powered platform designed to convert plain-language prompts into fully deployed decentralized applications.

Spawn runs on Sonic, a high-performance network capable of processing more than 10,000 transactions per second with fast finality and low fees, making it suitable for real-time applications, including gaming and payments.

The platform handles the entire web3 development workflow, including smart contract generation, compilation, on-chain deployment, and frontend creation with wallet integration, as noted by the team. It also includes an AI assistant named Spawny that helps users adjust contracts and interfaces through natural language commands.

Spawn seeks to address the accessibility issue that has kept web3 development out of reach for most people, according to Samuel Harcourt, a core contributor at Sonic Labs. Users can describe their ideas in plain English, and the platform handles the technical deployment behind the scenes.

“With Spawn, we’re removing that barrier entirely. If you can describe your idea, you can deploy it. Simply describe your dApp in plain English, whether it’s a coin flip game where players wager S tokens or an NFT collection with a public mint, and Spawn handles the rest,” Harcourt noted.

Spawn was introduced at ETHDenver 2026 with live demonstrations through a fully playable Snake game, complete with an on-chain leaderboard, from a single text prompt. The tool is set for a limited early-access release ahead of its full public launch.

Bitcoin is once again at a critical level, and traders are asking the big question: how low can Bitcoin price go if support breaks?

In a recent market discussion, one experienced trader outlined the levels he is watching and explained what would confirm further downside for BTC.

The Important Bitcoin Level: $65,800According to Pro trader Koroush, the most important short-term level right now is around $65,800.

This area represents Bitcoin’s most recent significant low. In trending markets, price often tests support and resistance levels before making a decisive move. If support breaks, momentum can accelerate quickly as traders get liquidated and panic selling increases.

The trader explained that in strong trending conditions, it is usually better to bet on continuation rather than reversals. That means:

If support breaks, price often drops fast.
If resistance breaks, price can rally aggressively.
At the moment, Bitcoin appears to be in a downward trend. If the $65,800 level fails, the next major support could be significantly lower.

Next Major Support: $55,000After zooming out to the weekly chart, the next meaningful support appears near $55,000. This level dates back to price action from August 2024.

However, there is a catch.

The further back in time a support level is, the less reliable it may be. Market conditions change, and older price data may not fully reflect current investor sentiment.

Still, based on available chart structure, $55K is the next key downside target if Bitcoin loses the $65.8K level.

Signs of Weakness Before the DropWhile the exact top was not predicted, warning signs were visible.

In previous bull cycles, when Bitcoin broke major resistance levels like $72K or $108K, price would surge aggressively and rarely look back. Recently, that strength has faded.

New highs were followed by quick pullbacks. Price action became choppy and sideways rather than explosive. That shift signaled weakening momentum.

Instead of aggressively buying new highs, the trader began reducing risk exposure as market conditions became less clean.

What This Means for Bitcoin NowBitcoin is currently in a clear downtrend. If $65,800 breaks, downside momentum could accelerate toward $55,000.

However, if buyers defend this level and create a strong reversal pattern, the market could stabilize.

The key takeaway is not about predicting exact prices. It is about watching structure.

Break below $65.8K: Increased probability of $55K test.
Strong bounce above resistance: Potential trend shift.
For now, Bitcoin sits at a decision point. The next move will likely define whether this is a deeper correction or the beginning of another leg higher.

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Bitcoin pops then drops as Supreme Court strikes down Trump tariffsAs has been typical in crypto markets of late, even the most modest move higher was met with immediate selling.Updated Feb 20, 2026, 3:31 p.m. Published Feb 20, 2026, 3:20 p.m.

The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday struck down President Trump's tariff regime in a 6-3 decision.

"No President has invoked the statute to impose any tariffs, let alone tariffs of this magnitude and scope," the court ruling said.

STORY CONTINUES BELOW

"That 'lack of historical precedent,' coupled with the 'breadth of authority' that the President now claims, suggests that the tariffs extend beyond the President’s 'legitimate reach.'"

Bitcoin knee-jerked about 2% higher on the news, rising past the $68,000 level. As has been typical in crypto lately, though, the gain was reversed within minutes, returning to just below $67,000 at the current time.

Crypto's fleeting gains stood in contrast to what's appearing more sustainable in stocks, with the Nasdaq rising 0.6% to a session high.

Stagflationary dataEarlier Friday, a batch of U.S. economic data showed signs of stagflationary impulses. The U.S. economy grew only a modest 1.4% in the final three months of 2025, the Commerce Department reported. Alongside core personal consumer expenditure prices rose 3% year-over-year, faster than the hoped for 2.9% and up from 2.8% previously.

On a yearly basis, the economy grew 2.2%, which is the slowest growth since Covid year 2020.

"Today’s economic data delivered a messy message of both hotter than expected inflation, and slower than anticipated growth," Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth, said. "The confusing message from today’s data confirms the current Fed bias to take their time with monetary policy."

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What next for XRP as volatility sinks to 2024 lows

2 hours ago

Technical traders see a compression setup, with $1.39 as key support and $1.44 as near-term resistance that could open a move toward $1.50 to $1.62 if reclaimed.

What to know:

XRP is consolidating around $1.42 as volatility falls to levels last seen before a major 2024 rally, prompting speculation that the current downtrend may be nearing exhaustion.Technical traders see a compression setup, with $1.39 as key support and $1.44 as near-term resistance that could open a move toward $1.50 to $1.62 if reclaimed.With volatility near prior cycle lows, analysts say the timing and direction of the next breakout will likely hinge on how long this low-volatility base-building phase can persist.

TL;DR:

Jupiter DAO is debating whether to proceed with the 700M $JUP airdrop or adopt a zero net emissions model funded by treasury buybacks. Holders with more than 1M $JUP staked directed 81.7% of their combined voting weight to the zero emissions option, which is leading with 73.9% of the total. The ten largest wallets backing the zero emissions proposal hold more than 22.5% of the total voting weight, sparking debate over fairness in governance. The Jupiter DAO finds itself at one of the most significant crossroads in its ecosystem’s history. Launched on February 17, the ongoing vote presents two opposing paths for managing the future supply of $JUP: executing the planned airdrop of 700 million tokens, known as Jupuary, or adopting a zero net emissions model that would halt new issuances and begin executing buybacks funded by the protocol’s treasury.

Within 48 hours of the process launching, more than 24,500 votes were recorded. By wallet count, the option to proceed with Jupuary leads with more than 13,000 individual voters. However, DAO governance is not determined by the number of wallets but by the weight of staked tokens behind each vote. Measured in those terms, the zero emissions proposal controls 73.9% of the total voting weight.

Whales Against the Tide: The Weight of Capital An analysis of the onchain distribution reveals a clear fracture between large and small holders. Wallets with more than one million Jupiter (JUP) staked directed 81.7% of their combined weight to the zero emissions option. As stake size increases, support for halting emissions and implementing buybacks has become markedly pronounced. At the opposite end, wallets holding fewer than 1,000 $JUP are overrepresented among airdrop supporters.

Part of the debate has historical roots within the platform. Jupiter emerged from Mercurial Finance, a stablecoin protocol that received 5% of the total $JUP supply, equivalent to 350 million tokens, during the transition. As of the close of February 2026, approximately 182 million were already in vesting. Under the zero emissions model, those tokens would be offset through treasury buybacks to avoid additional selling pressure on the market.

Jupiter: Concentration of Power and Its Limits The distribution of voting power has also generated tension within the community. The ten largest wallets backing zero emissions account for more than 22.5% of the total weight. One of them, holding more than 27.7 million $JUP staked, is the largest whale involved in the process. Meow, co-founder of Jupiter, confirmed that the address belongs to a project co-founder and that the votes originate from allocations with structured vesting.

The debate has been reopened over whether token-weighted governance systems allow concentrated capital to define outcomes independently of majority participation. The counterargument is that large holders assume greater financial exposure and have stronger incentives to preserve long-term value. The vote remains open, and its outcome will define not only the protocol’s emissions policy but also the credibility of its decentralized governance model.

TL;DR

Bitcoin held near $67,000 as $181.69M liquidations hit, while BTC and ETH ETFs saw $165.8M and $130.2M outflows. Traders see stabilization from $66,000 to $68,000; reclaiming $72,000 to $75,000 is the strength test, and $67,581 could liquidate $25M shorts. Ethereum’s bids were repeatedly sold into, with breakdown risk; Solana levels to watch are $74.11 and $50.18. XRP eyes $1.52 as resistance, while SHIB burn rate spiked 1,900%. Dogecoin levels: $0.6533. Bitcoin hovered around $67,000 in a muted session that felt less like conviction and more like risk containment. Sideways pricing is masking heavy repositioning as liquidations totaled $181.69 million over the past 24 hours and exchange-traded flows stayed negative. Spot Bitcoin ETFs logged $165.8 million of net outflows on Thursday, while spot Ethereum ETFs saw $130.2 million exit, reinforcing a defensive institutional posture. Even so, the meme coin sector managed a 0.8% gain, loosely tracking Bitcoin’s bounce and hinting that selective risk still exists. Desks now await a clean catalyst to break the range decisively.

Levels and positioning that traders are underwriting Trader Cyril-DeFi said Bitcoin appears to be stabilizing from $66,000 to $68,000 after a sharp selloff, with price now compressing in a way that often precedes a larger move. Compression is being treated as a pre-breakout setup but he said bulls still need to reclaim the $72,000 to $75,000 zone to show real strength. Separately, chart analyst Ali Martinez flagged a tactical trigger: a move above $67,581 could liquidate more than $25 million in shorts, potentially adding forced buybacks to any rebound. Until that happens, momentum stays fragile and order flow favors mean reversion today.

Castillo Trading offered a blunt read on Ethereum: structure remains fragile, momentum is weak, and bids keep getting sold into. ETH is stuck in a low-confidence tape where the “best case” for bulls is a liquidity sweep of recent lows followed by a strong bounce. The risk, the trader warned, is a clean breakdown through support with little reaction if sellers stay in control. For Solana, Martinez highlighted two downside levels to monitor, $74.11 and $50.18, with a sustained break below $74 opening the door toward $50 if weakness persists. That keeps hedges in place.

On majors, Crypto Tony said a retest of $1.52 would be an ideal setup for XRP before another leg lower, with that area likely acting as resistance and a rejection confirming downside. Altcoin leadership is absent, so micro-level levels matter. For Dogecoin, trader Javon Marks said there are no major resistance targets below $0.6533, with the all-time high at $0.73905; a run toward those marks would imply roughly 550% to 640% upside from current levels if momentum returns. Separately, Shibburn showed a 1,900% burn-rate spike after 1 million SHIB was removed in one transaction recently.