Market Signal Briefing

Journalist

Posted: February 22, 2026

Institutional ownership of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds) changed only slightly despite BTC’s price decline of 23% in Q4 2025. 

According to aggregated data from 13F filings with the SEC, institutional holdings dropped from 532K BTC (Q3 2025) to 513K BTC (as of Q4 2025)—a 19K BTC decline.

This translated to a 3.5% decline in the institutional holdings of BTC. 

Source: X/Root

Overall, institutions still held over half a million BTC.

With the asset entering a bear market phase in early 2026, it will be interesting to gauge whether institutions can be diamond hands in an extended crypto winter. 

The U.S. spot BTC ETFs debuted in 2024, right at the onset of this cycle’s bull run. BTC price went parabolic afterward, surging from $40K to $72K, then to $100K, and finally topping out at $126K.

This marked a +220% run since they debuted.  

However, BTC’s pullback worsened in 2026, halving its value. In fact, it broke below the average cost basis of BTC ETFs of $84.1K.

Now, the average ETF holder is about 20% underwater based on the press-time BTC price of $68K. 

Since this is the products’ first crypto winter, it’s unclear whether the ETF investors will still hold during the capitulation. The 13F filings for Q1 2026, set to be released in Q2, will help shed light on their action. 

Institutional vs. retail Bitcoin: ETF share From a dominance perspective, the retail still commanded the U.S. spot BTC ETF holdings. Of the 1.27 million BTC held by ETFs, over 700K BTC are held by retail investors. 

Source: X/Root 

Although institutional holdings have been rising since 2024, climbing 10% to a high of 40% by Q3 2025, they stagnated in late 2025.  

However, compared with Q3 2025, institutions’ dominance slipped only 1%. So, despite retail still commanding the market share, institutions were still holding the line.

But based on the number of firms holding BTC ETFs, there was a 14% fall. Firms that reported owning BTC ETFs decreased from 2173 to 1867, the highest drop since 2024. 

Source: X/Root

Even so, 17 out of the top 25 institutional BTC ETF holders increased their exposure in Q4, including major banks (JPMorgan Chase), sovereign wealth funds (Mubadala), and asset managers (BlackRock). 

Overall, the institutional share of BTC ETFs was unchanged last year. But it remains to be seen whether they’ll remain diamond hands after crypto winter in Q1 2026, especially with current ETF outflows rivaling Q4 levels.

Source: Glassnode

Final Summary  Institutional share of BTC ETFs was unchanged in Q4 2025, dropping only 1%. More than half of the top 25 BTC ETF holders increased positions last quarter. 

Amin Ayan

Crypto Journalist

Amin Ayan

Part of the Team Since

Apr 2025

About Author

Amin Ayan is a crypto journalist with over four years of experience in the industry. He has contributed to leading publications such as Cryptonews, Investing.com, 99Bitcoins, and 24/7 Wall St. He has...

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Japanese financial conglomerate SBI Holdings is introducing a blockchain-based bond offering for retail investors, blending traditional fixed-income returns with cryptocurrency incentives.

Key Takeaways:

SBI is issuing 10 billion yen in tokenized bonds recorded on a blockchain platform. Investors will earn fixed interest plus XRP rewards tied to their subscription amount. The launch reflects SBI’s broader push to integrate crypto assets into traditional finance. The new issuance, called the SBI START Bonds, totals 10 billion yen (about $64.5 million) and will be recorded and managed onchain using the “ibet for Fin” platform developed by enterprise blockchain firm BOOSTRY.

The three-year securities carry an indicative annual yield ranging from 1.85% to 2.45%, with interest paid twice a year.

SBI Bond Investors to Receive XRP Rewards Alongside Interest PaymentsIn addition to fixed returns, eligible investors will receive XRP token rewards. Retail buyers and companies investing at least 100,000 yen (roughly $650) and holding an account with SBI VC Trade qualify for the bonus program.

According to the product details, investors will receive XRP equivalent to about 200 yen per 100,000 yen invested.

The rewards will be distributed at issuance and again alongside each interest payment through 2029.

The bonds are expected to begin secondary trading on March 25 via the Osaka Digital Exchange’s proprietary START trading system, marking another step in Japan’s gradual rollout of tokenized securities markets.

SBI’s move reflects its long-standing ties to the XRP ecosystem. The firm partnered with Ripple in 2016 and has since supported XRP-powered remittance services, including cross-border payments between Japan and the Philippines.

Chairman and CEO Yoshitaka Kitao has previously said SBI holds roughly 9% of Ripple Labs, underscoring the company’s strategic alignment with the network.

Founded in 1999 as part of SoftBank before becoming independent in 2006, SBI has grown into a major financial group with more than $8 billion in annual revenue.

BREAKING 🚨🚨🚨 SBI Ripple Asia just confirmed $XRP Ledger is being implemented by financial institutions worldwide!

We're buying this at these prices while global finance is being rebuilt on it

When every institution plugs in, the demand won't be quiet

YOU ARE STILL EARLY!🫵 https://t.co/AuuTxuWu9U pic.twitter.com/TADxEPqiIk

— X Finance Bull (@Xfinancebull) February 21, 2026 Over the years, the company has expanded beyond brokerage and banking into digital assets, stablecoins and blockchain infrastructure.

SBI has also worked with Circle to introduce the USDC stablecoin in Japan and signed a memorandum of understanding with Ripple to distribute its RLUSD stablecoin.

By pairing bonds with crypto incentives, the firm is testing whether traditional investors will adopt tokenized securities that offer familiar yields alongside blockchain-based settlement and rewards.

In August last year, Ripple signed a memorandum of understanding with SBI Holdings and its crypto arm SBI VC Trade to distribute its Ripple USD (RLUSD) stablecoin in Japan.

Ripple Secures UK Regulatory Approval Amid Global ExpansionThe rollout comes amid Ripple’s broader expansion across regulated markets. Earlier this month, the company received approval from the UK’s financial regulator for an Electronic Money Institution license and crypto asset registration.

Ripple has also secured preliminary approval for a similar license in Luxembourg, positioning the firm to expand its payments services across Europe.

In the United States, Ripple applied for a national banking license with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in July 2025, joining a growing list of crypto firms seeking deeper integration with the traditional financial system.

In recent months, the company has also secured approvals in Dubai and Abu Dhabi and onboarded partners including Zand Bank and Mamo.

As reported, Ripple is also weighing whether to bring staking to the XRP Ledger (XRPL), a move that would push the decade-old blockchain deeper into the rapidly expanding world of decentralized finance.

Ethereum's co-founder has been disposing of large amounts of ETH for several weeks now.

On-chain data from Arkham Intelligence and Lookonchain showed that Vitalik Buterin has resumed his selling spree of ETH with another multi-million dollar transfer.

The analysts explained that he had withdrawn another batch of 3,500 ETH (worth roughly $7 million at the time) from Aave with the likely intention to sell. At the time of the original post a few hours ago, he had already disposed of 571 ETH ($1.13 million).

After a two-week break, vitalik.eth(@VitalikButerin) is selling $ETH again!

8 hours ago, he withdrew 3,500 $ETH($6.95M) from Aave to sell.

So far, he has already sold 571 $ETH($1.13M).https://t.co/pMvkZHjIyDhttps://t.co/DYpg3yFecJ pic.twitter.com/jLCKLk6hE9

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) February 22, 2026

CryptoPotato has reported a few similar instances in February alone, in which on-chain data indicated that he had begun disposing of some of his ETH fortune. A February 5 report showed that the project’s co-founder had sold off 2,961 ETH ($6.6 million at the time) in just three days.

A day later, Lookonchain informed that the total sales had grown to 6,183 ETH, which was valued at $13.2 million. The average exit price was $2,140.

Arkham Intelligence keeps a close eye on Buterin’s addresses, and a report from earlier this week noted that he still held more than 240,000 ETH, valued at around $467 million. However, that data was before today’s sell-offs.

Meanwhile, ETH’s price has been on a consistent downtrend for months. After it peaked at close to $5,000 in late August last year, it was violently rejected and ended 2025 at around $3,000. The late January/early February crash was brutal, pushing the asset to under $1,800.

You may also like: Inside Vitalik Buterin’s Wallet: How Much Ethereum (ETH) Does He Actually Own? Peter Thiel Exits ETHZilla, Company Sells $74.5M in ETH Amid Market Pressure Ethereum Is Neutral, People Aren’t: Vitalik Buterin Draws a Clear Line Although it has recovered some ground since then, Ether still struggles below $2,000. Popular analyst Ali Martinez outlined the formation of a bullish flag yesterday for ETH, but with a major catch: the chart was inverted, showing in reality that ETH could be primed for another correction to under $1,400.

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About the author

Jordan got into crypto in 2016 by trading and investing. He began writing about blockchain technology in 2017 and now serves as CryptoPotato's Assistant Editor-in-Chief. He has managed numerous crypto-related projects and is passionate about all things blockchain.

XRP holders have endured a brutal wave of capitulation, but new on-chain data shows that the worst of the sell-off may finally be in the rearview mirror. 

According to the crypto analytics firm Santiment, XRP has just recorded its largest spike in on-chain realized losses since late 2022.

Historical patterns indicate that this level of extreme fear often has a tendency to coincide with a structural market bottom.

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Complete capitulationA "realized loss" occurs when an investor sells their coins at a price lower than their original purchase price. It indicates that a large number of traders are panicking and locking in their losses.

According to Santiment, this behavior is a hallmark of "fear taking over" the market. However, it serves as a critical contrarian price signal.

When a wave of heavy realized losses washes over the market, it usually means the "weak hands" have already sold their positions.

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With the panic sellers flushed out, there is a significantly reduced overhang of potential sellers left to drive the price lower.

In simple terms, the heavy damage has already been done, and the market has reached an emotional tipping point.

The chart features a massive, sudden downward spike in the purple line. Over the course of the week, those total realized losses ballooned to a staggering -$1.93 billion.

The last time the XRP network witnessed a weekly realized loss milestone of this exact magnitude (-$1.93 billion) was roughly 39 months ago, in November 2022.

Following that identical capitulation event in 2022, the price of XRP proceeded to jump 114% over the subsequent eight months. 

Not a guarantee Santiment is quick to point out that extreme fear tends to peak before the price actually bottoms. This massive realized loss spike does not guarantee an immediate, overnight rally, but it drastically increases the probability of a bounce. Once the sellers are fully exhausted, even a small influx of new buying pressure can push prices significantly higher.

Morgan’s assessment aligns directly with the psychological lifecycle of a market correction. When traders panic and lock in nearly $2 billion in losses over a single week, it traditionally marks the final, most painful phase of a market flush.

Questions are being raised as to whether 1.66B XRP in futures can be translated to institutional return or retail-driven leverage?

Big tech's spending spree is accelerating, but Nvidia stock is priced like it isn't.

The growth of artificial intelligence (AI) requires massive investment in computing power and data centers. Leading cloud providers, or hyperscalers, continue to see demand for AI cloud services outpacing supply, and this is good news for Nvidia (NVDA +0.94%).

Top hyperscalers (Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet's Google) spent $305 billion on capital expenditures in 2025, and that is expected to grow significantly in 2026. Spending on chips and computing systems accounts for about half of data center spending, meaning the biggest technology companies are fighting for Nvidia's graphics processing units (GPUs) -- the benchmark chip for AI.

Image source: Nvidia.

Explosive demand for Nvidia Nvidia's data center revenue grew 66% year over year in its fiscal third quarter last year, reaching $51 billion and accounting for 89% of its total business. Analysts expect the company's total revenue to increase 67% year over year in the fiscal fourth quarter, according to Yahoo! Finance.

CEO Jensen Huang said, "We've entered the virtuous cycle of AI." More companies are building AI models and agents, driving greater demand for chips and compute capacity in data centers. Nvidia made a deal with OpenAI last year, which has over 800 million ChatGPT users, to deploy at least 10 gigawatts worth of AI data centers powered by Nvidia's technology. This will support OpenAI's eventual use of millions of GPUs, and it's apparent by their level of spending that the top hyperscalers are preparing for the same large-scale deployment of more chips over the long term.

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All the top cloud providers are among the first to receive Nvidia's new chip generations each year. Nvidia's upcoming Rubin chips will provide even better AI performance over the previous Blackwell generation. This pace of innovation gives hyperscalers even more reason to keep investing in new data center capacity to deploy the most powerful chips available.

What this means for investors The growth opportunity remains quite large for Nvidia, yet its stock price doesn't fully reflect the company's long-term potential. The stock's forward price-to-earnings ratio (currently around 24) is less than the company's expected earnings growth, as analysts anticipate 57% earnings growth this year and 37% annualized over the next few years. This is usually an indicator that a growth stock is undervalued.

That said, there's a reason investors are assigning a relatively modest multiple. Competition in AI chips is intensifying, with many top cloud providers using customized chips to reduce costs. But it's clear Nvidia is still the one all the big tech companies are fighting over, as noted by Nvidia's strong revenue growth and high profit margin. Nvidia earned $99 billion in profit over the last four quarters, representing a 53% margin on revenue.

Still, Nvidia's growth shows that it is in a solid competitive position. There's currently no substitute for the general-purpose computing power of GPUs, which can be used for a wide range of AI applications. At this valuation, Nvidia offers a favorable risk-to-reward proposition for investors.

John Ballard has positions in Amazon and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Vital Farms executive Matthew Ohayer sold 20,000 direct shares for a transaction value of approximately $558,136 on Feb. 2, 2026. This sale represented 0.3% of Ohayer's direct holdings, with 6,341,190 shares remaining directly owned post-transaction.

The U.S. government is softening its stance on greenhouse gases, which is good news for these energy industry giants...for now.

Energy is vital to the modern world, with oil and natural gas expected to play a big role for decades to come. However, the shift toward cleaner energy sources is a long-term headwind that investors have to carefully consider when investing in the energy sector. The U.S. government's softening stance on greenhouse gases is a broad positive, but investors should still stick with industry giants like ExxonMobil (XOM 2.44%) and Chevron (CVX 0.57%). Here's why.

A little bit of everything Exxon and Chevron are both globally diversified integrated energy companies. That means they have operations across the entire energy value chain, including producing oil and natural gas, transporting those fuels, and processing them into chemicals and refined products, such as gasoline. You probably know Exxon and Chevron from the gas stations you see, but they are much bigger entities than that.

Image source: Getty Images.

The diversification in Exxon and Chevron's businesses helps to soften the peaks and valleys inherent in the volatile energy sector. An additional benefit these two energy giants offer is their financial strength, as they have the lowest debt-to-equity ratios in their peer group.

During industry downturns, Exxon and Chevron take on debt to support their businesses and dividends. Notably, each company has increased its dividend annually for over three decades. When energy prices recover, as they always have historically, leverage is reduced.

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Good for now, but for how long? The U.S. government's easing of greenhouse gas restrictions is good for the entire energy sector, so Exxon and Chevron will benefit. That said, they may not benefit as much as more focused businesses.

For example, a refiner that makes gasoline could see higher demand for a longer period of time if internal combustion engine vehicles aren't forced out of the market by strict regulations on emissions.

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But regulations change, and a future administration could reinstate the regulations that are currently being eased. This is why most investors will be better off owning proven industry leaders with widely diversified businesses. Exxon and Chevron will benefit from a friendly regulatory environment, and they are likely to be best prepared to deal with increased regulations if, or perhaps when, they come along.

Given the inherent volatility of the energy sector, all good news needs to be taken with a grain of salt. It is still highly advisable to invest conservatively with reliable dividend payers like Exxon and Chevron. And as a bonus, you'll be able to collect Exxon's well-above-market 2.8% yield or Chevron's 3.9% yield while you ride out the industry's regulatory swings.

Nvidia stock is up 750% over the past three years, while this non-tech AI stock is "only" up around 55%.

Nvidia (NVDA +0.94%), a maker of high-power computer chips, is the poster child of the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution. Wall Street has pushed the stock sharply higher, as the AI opportunity currently seems unlimited. That enthusiasm probably won't last, if Wall Street history is any guide. Which is why you may be better off buying Digital Realty (DLR 0.69%) as your long-term AI play.

What does Digital Realty do? Digital Realty is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns data centers. The business model is more complex than that of a traditional property-owning REIT, but the basic premise is the same. Digital Realty leases out space in its properties to tenants. That said, what gets housed in a data center is really just a lot of computers.

Image source: Getty Images.

This is important for artificial intelligence because AI is really just algotithms running on lots of compute power. Nvidia's chips run AI, but those chips have to live somewhere. That somewhere is usually a data center of some type. Digital Realty is increasingly leaning in to this developing niche, adopting technology that will make it easier for companies to house their AI tech in its properties.

There's more opportunity than you may think While there's no telling what company will eventually lead the AI race, it is pretty clear that AI will have to live somewhere. Right now, investors think the winner is Nvidia, which is why the stock is up 750% over the last three years. By contrast, Digital Realty is "only" up about 55%. That's impressive, but it clearly isn't seeing the same enthusiasm as more direct AI plays.

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Only, there's a longer-term picture here to consider. AI will always need to live somewhere, and each new AI-related customer increases cash flow, supporting Digital Realty's 2.7% yield and expanding its dividend-paying ability. That's step one.

However, many of the AI industry's leaders are building their own data centers. Digital Realty is a logical acquirer of those data centers if, perhaps when, the companies that built them look to sell. That's step two. And it means that, even if Wall Street sours on the AI trade, Digital Realty could still see years of growth ahead for its pick-and-shovel AI business.

To be fair, Digital Realty's stock price has handily outperformed the average REIT. So there's some AI hype built into the shares. However, if you look at the risk-versus-reward profile of AI stocks, it will likely appeal to more conservative investors who want to add some exposure to this odd sector.

These overvalued tech stocks have attracted many baby boomer investors who may be in for an unpleasant surprise.

Value is in the eye of the beholder, and some people are still loading up on overvalued tech stocks that face challenging headwinds.

Despite the seemingly low odds of meaningful long-term growth, older investors are still piling into these big-name stocks. They usually gravitate toward household names that have been around for decades, but that doesn't ensure positive long-term returns. While you never know what can happen in the stock market, some stocks have a lower probability of success than others, including these picks.

Image source: Getty Images.

Tesla's EV business is losing ground Tesla (TSLA 0.01%) makes most of its money from selling EVs, which is a declining business. The company still has a $1 trillion market cap because Elon Musk is the CEO, and it is working on a pivot to physical artificial intelligence (AI). Musk's business acumen, Tesla's innovation, and the fact that it's been lumped with household tech companies through the "Magnificent Seven" moniker are some of the reasons baby boomers may gravitate toward Tesla.

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The bullish scenario is that Tesla's Cybercabs become a high-margin ride-hailing service, and Optimus robots are in most households. That can happen, but there aren't any meaningful, tangible sales results for that part of the business. There needs to be more than hype to justify a $1 trillion market cap.

Tesla vehicle sales accounted for 77% of total results, and that part of the business was down 11% year over year. The expiration of EV tax credits, Musk's waning popularity among liberal-leaning customers, and intense EV competition in China are three major headwinds that can push the stock lower.

SpaceX and xAI are separate entities from Tesla. Justifying the valuation comes down to how well Optimus robots and Cybercabs perform, but it's not like Tesla is the only company competing for these opportunities. The opportunity is exciting, but a 204 forward P/E ratio should concern investors.

Intel still faces a long road ahead Intel (INTC 1.22%) is a speculative turnaround story, but it's also a legacy blue chip tech company that has an appeal with boomers. The U.S. government recently took a 10% stake in the company, suggesting it will receive plenty of capital to help it catch up in the AI race. It doesn't hurt to get government support, and that's the main reason Intel stock has almost doubled since mid-September.

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However, government backing does not guarantee a transformation, even for a company that has become a household name for many boomers. Even if Intel brings more manufacturing back to the U.S., the stock could stay flat or even recede to where it was before the government's 10% stake was announced.

Intel told investors when announcing the news that it had invested $108 billion in capital and $79 billion in research and development over the past five years to "[expand] U.S.-based manufacturing capacity and process technology."

The government's 10% stake is a small percentage compared to the amount of money Intel has already invested. For all of those investments, Intel ended up with a stock that has dropped by more than 25% over that five-year stretch.

Revenue growth has come to a crawl in recent quarters, with some quarters featuring year-over-year revenue declines. It's a bit too early to call Intel a winner, and that may warrant a correction later.

Bitcoin sometimes sells off hard on days with no crypto headlines. A recurring driver sits outside crypto: a yen-funded carry unwind that forces cross-asset deleveraging, then transmits into BTC through thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and fast position reduction in derivatives.

Here's the core mechanism in one line: if USD/JPY moves fast enough to trigger margin and VAR cuts, BTC can sell off like it got bad news even when crypto headlines stay quiet.

Japan’s FX officials have started speaking in a way that markets treat as a constraint. On Feb. 12, 2026, Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, said Tokyo “has not lowered its guard” against FX volatility after a sharp move in the yen, and he said authorities are watching markets with “high urgency” while staying in close contact with US counterparts.

When messaging shifts toward urgency, carry positioning often becomes more sensitive to speed and to levels that traders associate with intervention risk. That turns USD/JPY into a “don’t get caught” market where traders cut carry exposure earlier and faster.

BIS data helps frame the stakes: yen-denominated loans to non-banks resident outside Japan rose to about ¥40 trillion by March 2024, roughly $250 billion using BIS’ conversion at the time. A channel with that scale can influence global risk conditions, and crypto trades inside those conditions.

The effect on crypto is mechanical. A carry unwind can start in FX, spread into equities and credit via higher volatility and tighter risk limits, then reach Bitcoin as a risk reduction flow. Bitcoin’s price action can look idiosyncratic in the moment, then line up cleanly with global deleveraging once you track what happened to funding conditions and cross-asset volatility.

Yen carry trade, in plain EnglishA carry trade borrows in a low-rate currency and invests in assets with a higher expected return, collecting the rate differential as long as the funding leg stays stable. The yen served as a funding currency for years because Japan ran very low policy rates, and a large domestic savings base supported cheap funding.

Carry thrives when volatility stays contained. Low FX volatility reduces the probability of a fast mark-to-market move against the funding leg that holds the trade together. That lets market participants run more leverage for essentially the same risk budget.

The risk sits in the same place as it does for every carry trade: the funding currency can strengthen quickly, or FX volatility can jump, raising the cost of holding leveraged exposure. At that point, carry income becomes secondary to managing margin requirements and risk limits.

BIS Bulletin No. 90 describes the transmission clearly in its review of the August 2024 turbulence. A spike in volatility tightened margin constraints, and that pressure forced deleveraging in positions associated with carry trades. This is the bridge into crypto: a volatility shock that forces deleveraging across portfolios often turns into correlated selling of liquid risk assets, including bitcoin.

What changed in Japan: urgency, intervention sensitivity, and faster position reductionJapan’s FX messaging matters because it can alter how traders model the distribution of outcomes. When officials emphasize “high urgency” and keep intervention risk in the conversation, positioning tends to become more reactive to fast moves.

On Feb. 12, the yen strengthened to around 153.02 per dollar after rebounding from nearly 160, a level widely treated as a potential intervention line. The move stirred speculation around rate checks, which markets often interpret as a precursor signal around intervention optics.

A fast swing like that matters even when the macro story looks unchanged. A large share of leveraged risk books operate with speed-based limits and VAR-style controls that tighten when volatility picks up. When USD/JPY moves several figures quickly, it can compress risk budgets across multi-asset portfolios, and that compression leads to broad exposure cuts.

On Feb. 13, the yen was on track for its strongest weekly gain in about 15 months, up close to 3% for the week. A weekly move of that magnitude in a funding currency can influence the behavior of carry participants, especially those running leverage through derivatives, where margin requirements are the quickest to reprice. Reuters also noted close coordination of language with US counterparts on FX policy, which can raise the perceived cost of holding large short-yen positions during volatility.

The plumbing that links yen funding to BTCThis is a leverage-to-liquidity chain reaction.

The transmission from yen funding to bitcoin usually runs through portfolios and market structure, rather than through a simple yen-Bitcoin carry trade.

1) Multi-asset funds and macro pods
Many large books run equities, rates, FX, and credit as a single risk system, and some hold BTC exposure through futures, options, or listed products. When FX volatility rises and funding conditions tighten, the risk system often requires gross exposure reduction. Bitcoin frequently sits in the same high beta bucket as growth equities and tighter-spread credit.

2) Prime brokerage and synthetic funding
A large share of leverage runs through instruments that synthesize funding across currencies. FX swaps and forwards can embed yen funding in strategies that never present themselves as carry trades in a simple way. Prime brokers and margin systems then translate higher volatility into higher required collateral. When collateral needs rise, exposure cuts happen quickly.

3) Offshore non-bank channels
BIS research provides scale anchors that help quantify how large the yen-linked channel has become outside Japan. BIS Global Liquidity Indicators show that yen-denominated loans to non-banks resident outside Japan rose to about ¥40 trillion by March 2024, roughly $250 billion using BIS’ conversion at the time. The same BIS bulletin notes that cross-border yen bank claims on certain offshore non-bank segments exceeded ¥80 trillion before the August 2024 episode.

Those numbers matter because they frame capacity. A large yen-funded channel can influence global risk conditions even when a specific asset is not directly financed in yen. When that channel tightens, the tightening can reach Bitcoin through cross-asset deleveraging and liquidity conditions.

BIS also noted that cryptoassets sold off sharply during that August 2024 turbulence, with Bitcoin and Ethereum posting losses of up to 20% during the episode. The value of that reference in February 2026 sits in the mechanism: a volatility shock can force margin-driven selling across assets, and crypto can be part of that selling even when crypto-specific news stays quiet.

What a carry-driven deleveraging wave looks like inside cryptoWhen carry exposure unwinds through a margin channel, crypto markets often show a familiar set of internal moves. Treat them as recurring symptoms that tend to cluster when leverage exits quickly.

Perpetual funding and basis reprice quickly.
Funding rates can swing as leveraged longs cut exposure and hedges become more expensive. Basis compresses when leverage exits, and cash-and-carry positioning gets reduced.

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Open interest compresses as positions close.
A rapid open interest decline often appears during forced exposure reduction. This can happen across exchanges at the same time because the underlying driver sits in risk limits, rather than in an exchange-specific event.

Spreads widen and depth thins.
Liquidity providers often reduce quoted size during volatility spikes. Depth at the top of the book can thin significantly, and execution quality deteriorates. In that environment, smaller market orders can produce larger price movements.

Cross-asset correlation tightens.
Bitcoin can trade closely with equity index futures during the highest-stress window. This behavior often follows a broad risk reduction wave where the marginal seller is cutting exposures across multiple lines.

ETF flow sensitivity increases.
When order books thin out, steady ETF inflows can absorb supply more effectively. When flows turn negative, the market loses a stabilizing buyer during a period when liquidity is already constrained.

The BIS framing is useful because it ties these symptoms back to the same root driver: volatility spikes tighten margins and force synchronized deleveraging across assets.

The 5-signal checklist for a yen-driven deleveraging windowThis checklist helps recognize the regime early and treat Bitcoin price action as a margin event when multiple signals align.

1) USD/JPY speed plus official language
Watch for fast multi-figure moves over one to two sessions, paired with language about vigilance and urgency. Tripwire: a 2 to 3% USD/JPY move in 24 to 48 hours, plus official “vigilance” or “urgency” language. The Feb. 12 Reuters report provides a concrete example of both: a move from near 160 to around 153 and a public emphasis on high urgency.

2) Cross-asset volatility shock
Track equity volatility and short-dated implied volatility behavior. A jump in volatility often travels with higher margins and tighter risk limits.

3) Credit and funding stress proxy
Watch for widening credit spreads, repo frictions, or collateral signals. These often travel with broad deleveraging.

4) Crypto internals: funding, basis, open interest, spreads
Track simultaneous moves: funding reprices, basis compresses, open interest declines, and spreads widen. This combination often accompanies rapid leverage reduction.

5) ETF flow trend as cushion strength
Track the 7-day average of net flows for the major US spot Bitcoin ETFs. A steady inflow pattern can help absorb supply when liquidity thins. A run of outflows can remove that support during a deleveraging window.

A practical way to apply this framework is to treat it as a hierarchy. Start with FX speed and official language, because that is where yen carry stress often shows first. Then check whether cross-asset volatility reprices at the same time. Add a credit or funding proxy to confirm that the stress is systemic rather than localized. Then use crypto internals to identify whether leverage is leaving. When all four layers align, the microstructure outcome tends to be similar: thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and more price movement per unit of flow.

TakeawayA fast USD/JPY move plus a cross-asset volatility jump often creates a margin regime that reaches Bitcoin through deleveraging and liquidity conditions. The scale of the yen-linked channel is large enough to move markets that look far removed from the currency. Bitcoin trades inside that global funding system.

Start with USD/JPY speed plus official language.
Confirm with cross-asset volatility and margin stress.
Validate with crypto internals: funding, open interest, and depth.

That sequence captures the mechanism that links yen carry conditions to BTC price action.

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Posted: February 22, 2026

Chainlink bulls have defended the $8 support level valiantly over the past two weeks. The Chainlink reserve climbed to 2 million tokens, valued at around $17 million.

The positive Spot ETF inflows to LINK also showed steady demand for the altcoin.

AMBCrypto had reported that the token was trading within a long-term symmetrical triangle pattern. The weekly RSI dropped to 32 for the first time in LINK’s history.

A lower-timeframe bullish flag pattern developed in recent weeks, contrasting with the higher-timeframe momentum. This has increased the expectations of a short-term bullish breakout.

Rising accumulation trends reflect long-term holder conviction The Holder Accumulation Ratio metric on Glassnode measures the portion of active holders who are buying or accumulating. It is calculated as the ratio of holders who increased their positions to all holders who saw a change in their balance.

Toward the end of January, the metric fell to a low of 66.06%. This month, the ratio has soared to 74.8%. The ratio has been below the 67%-69% area for most of the past two years.

The rising accumulation trends coincided with sideways price movement and some selling pressure from short-term holders.

Santiment data captured how the 3-month LINK holder cohort was facing sizeable losses. The 90-day MVRV ratio of 24.29% meant that the average LINK buyer in the past three months was facing a 24% loss.

At the same time, the 90-day Mean Coin Age has plunged considerably.

Together, it showed that the 3-month-old Chainlink [LINK] holder cohort, who fell into the short-term holder category, were aggressively selling Chainlink tokens over the past three weeks.

Meanwhile, the 180-day Dormant Circulation remained quiet.

The 180-day Mean Coin Age continued its steady uptrend as well. These metrics suggested that the longer-term holders remained sidelined or were adding to their holdings.

There was no spike in this age group’s dormant circulation, which would have indicated a wave of selling pressure.

Overall, it remained possible that Chainlink bulls can recover from the setbacks in recent months.

However, there was a more pessimistic view that investors should consider, too.

The final capitulation from the long-term holders has not yet taken place. Therefore, there is no rush to buy- it is also possible that LINK prices have to undergo one more bearish impulse wave.

Final Summary The Chainlink accumulation ratio rose in recent weeks alongside evidence that longer-term holders refused to sell their holdings. This could be a sign that the final LINK holder capitulation has not taken place yet, a sobering thought for underwater investors.

Nevertheless, improving sentiment toward the US Senate passing crypto-friendly legislation continued to support a cautiously bullish medium-term outlook.

Below, I consider the key drivers behind recent price trends, the short-term outlook, the medium-term trajectory, and the key technical levels traders should watch.

US BTC-Spot ETF Market Extends Outflow Streak The US BTC-spot ETF market saw net outflows of $315.9 million in the reporting week ending February 20. Significantly, the spot ETF market extended its outflow streak to five weeks, weighing on the supply-demand balance and buying interest in BTC.

According to Farside Investors, key flows for the reporting week ending February 20 included:

iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw net outflows of $303.5 million. Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net outflows of $19.6 million. In total, six ETF issuers reported weekly net outflows, compared to one ETF with weekly net inflows. The five-week outflow streak has weighed heavily on BTC demand. BTC has tumbled 22.44% year-to-date as BTC-spot ETFs have seen YTD outflows of $2.6 billion. Significantly, the spot ETF flow trends continue to support a bearish short-term outlook.

Fading bets on a June Fed rate cut have affected BTC-spot ETF market flow trends. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a June Fed rate cut dropped from 68.6% on February 13 to 53.5% on February 20, following the release of US economic data.

Crucially, elevated borrowing rates would affect liquidity, potentially leading traders to unwind leveraged positions in BTC and delay speculative trades.

Bitcoin and the US Economic Calendar: Labor Market Data and the Fed in Focus Looking at the week ahead, US labor market and consumer confidence data will influence sentiment following last week’s market reaction to key US data.

On Tuesday, February 24, US consumer confidence figures will provide insights into the domestic demand outlook. Economists expect the CB Consumer Confidence Index to rise from 84.5 in January to 86.0 in February. A sharper upswing would signal a pickup in consumer spending, given the tighter labor market. Increased spending would fuel demand-driven inflation, supporting a more hawkish Fed rate path.

On Thursday, February 26, US initial jobless claims will also influence sentiment after last week’s larger-than-expected fall to 206k. Economists forecast initial jobless claims will rise from 206k (week ending February 14) to 211k (week ending February 21). A higher jobless claims reading, nearer 250k, would revive Fed rate cut bets and boost demand for BTC.

Beyond the data, traders should closely monitor FOMC members’ reactions to the recent US economic reports. Their views on inflation, the labor market, and the timing of rate cuts will be crucial for BTC’s near-term price trajectory.

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Signals Bearish Sentiment Despite rebounding from February’s low of $60,000, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index languishes within the Extreme Fear zone. The Fear & Greed Index rose from 8 to 9 on Sunday, February 22, reflecting extreme bearish sentiment. Typically, these conditions suggest a price recovery, reinforcing the bullish medium-term outlook.

BTC Fear & Greed Index – 220226 Downside Risks to Medium-Term Outlook: Central Banks, US Data, and ETF Flows While positive fundamentals support a constructive medium-term bias, downside risks include:

The BoJ indicates a higher neutral interest rate (potentially 1.5%-2%), signaling multiple rate hikes. BoJ rate hikes and Fed rate cuts would narrow US-Japan rate differentials in favor of the yen. A markedly narrower rate differential could trigger a yen carry trade unwind as seen in mid-2024. US economic indicators dampen Fed rate cut bets. Lawmakers delay crypto-friendly legislation. US-Iran tensions intensify. BTC-spot ETFs report extended periods of outflows. These scenarios would likely push BTC toward $60,000, exposing the August 2024 low of $49,351 (the yen carry trade unwind low).

In summary, the short-term outlook remains bearish as fundamentals align with technicals. However, the medium- to longer-term outlook is cautiously bullish, hinged on favorable fundamentals developing. These fundamentals include the progress of the Market Structure Bill, easing geopolitical tensions, and expectations of Fed rate cuts.

Technical Analysis This week’s losses leave BTC trading well below its 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling a bearish bias. However, oversold conditions and evolving fundamentals suggest a rebound from the current levels, countering the negative technicals.

A breakout above $70,000 would bring the 50-day EMA into play. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA would indicate a near-term bullish trend reversal, paving the way toward the 200-day EMA. A sustained move above the 200-day EMA would affirm a bullish trend reversal, opening the door to testing the $100,000 psychological level.

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Bitcoin supply structure is undergoing a notable transformation as the Network Distribution Factor (NDF) declines rapidly. While price action often dominates headlines, shifts in distribution metrics can reveal structural changes. A falling NDF suggests that the balance of BTC holdings across different wallet cohorts is evolving, and potentially signaling a redistribution of market participants.

What The Network Distribution Factor Actually Measures An advanced on-chain data analytics firm, Alphractal, noted on X that the NDF of Bitcoin is declining sharply, and revealing an important structural shift in how the asset supply is distributed across the market. The NDF measures the proportion of the total BTC supply held by larger holders controlling at least 0.01% of the entire circulating supply.

When the metric declines, it indicates that the BTC supply concentration among large holders is decreasing. In practical terms, this shift represents a reduced relative dominance of large holders over the total supply and broader redistribution of BTC among smaller participants and new market entrants.

A declining extreme concentration is often seen during early accumulation phases, and a natural redistribution process follows the periods of strong accumulation by large entities. Historically, extended declines in the NDF tend to occur during phases when the market is mature, and the asset becomes more widely distributed. 

BTC market is undergoing a key shift | Source: Chart from Alphractal on X This often occurs after major bull cycles, when large players accumulate supply and are gradually absorbed by the broader market. Rather than signaling weakness, this dynamic can strengthen BTC economic decentralization and reduce structural risk tied to excessive concentration.

At the same time, it reflects a transition phase where supply is being redistributed globally, reinforcing BTC’s evolution from a relatively concentrated asset into a widely distributed global financial network. However, this does not signal structural weakness, but rather signals maturation and the expansion of BTC’s ownership base.

Why Bitcoin Represents A True Financial Revolution The clearest reasons Bitcoin remains the most compelling asset of our generation are its ownership structure and fixed supply. According to Crypto Patel, roughly 63% of the total circulating supply is held by everyday individual participants, not Wall Street, not the government, or even the institutions.

At the core of this thesis, there are only 21 million BTC in existence, and the number is fixed permanently; no central bank can inflate it, no politician can alter the code, and no corporation can dilute holders.

In a world characterized by aggressive money printing and currency debasement, BTC stands alone as mathematically enforced scarcity, and the majority of that asset belongs to ordinary individuals. Crypto Patel frames BTC’s decentralized ownership and fixed supply not just as a technology, but as a structural revolution.

BTC trading at $68,205 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

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Godspower Owie is my name, and I work for the news platforms NewsBTC and Bitcoinist. I sometimes like to think of myself as an explorer since I enjoy exploring new places, learning new things, especially valuable ones, and meeting new people who have an impact on my life, no matter how small. I value my family, friends, career, and time. Really, those are most likely the most significant aspects of every person's existence. Not illusions, but dreams are what I pursue.

A new Bloomberg analysis argues bitcoin is facing a “$1 trillion identity crisis,” as falling prices, exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows, and rising competition from gold, stablecoins, and prediction markets are testing the asset's long-standing narratives, at least according to the authors.

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Bitcoin is once again testing an important resistance zone, and traders are watching closely to see what happens next.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin recently faced rejection near the $68,300 to $69,800 resistance area. This is not the first time price has struggled in this zone. Sellers have stepped in here before, and we are now seeing another pause in momentum.

So what does this mean for Bitcoin’s short-term outlook?

Bullish Scenario Still AliveThe broader view remains slightly bullish.

Bitcoin appears to have formed a potential “wave two” bottom around February 19. If that structure holds, the market could now be building a third wave to the upside. A third wave is typically the strongest move in a trend, but it still needs confirmation through a clear breakout.

Right now, price action looks messy on lower time frames. There is no strong breakout yet, which means the move higher is not fully confirmed.

A Pullback Could Come FirstEven in the bullish setup, a short-term pullback would not be unusual.

A typical pattern would involve a small correction before continuation higher. If Bitcoin pulls back, the key support zone to watch sits between $66,194 and $66,956. As long as price stays above this range, the bullish structure remains intact.

If this support holds, buyers could step back in and push Bitcoin toward new local highs.

What If Support Breaks?If Bitcoin falls below that support area, the outlook becomes more cautious.

In that case, the next major support zone would be between $64,535 and $62,592. A drop into that area would suggest a deeper correction before any strong rally resumes.

Breakout Level to WatchFor bulls, the most important level is still the $68,300 to $69,867 resistance zone. A strong daily close above this range would signal momentum shifting firmly upward and increase the chances of a move toward higher highs.

Final OutlookBitcoin is at a decision point. A small dip would not damage the overall bullish setup, but holding above key support is critical.

If support stays strong and resistance eventually breaks, Bitcoin could begin its next leg higher. If not, a deeper correction may come first before the next major rally.

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High risk could lead to high reward, but there's no guarantee.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD +0.61%) stock had an incredible run-up until October 2025. Over the three years prior to then, it gained about 1,300%. However, it's been falling since then, down almost 50% from the October high.

The trading platform is still reporting double-digit growth, but there could be more volatility ahead. Here's what to watch for.

Image source: Getty Images.

The prototype fintech company Robinhood is known for its trading platform that attracts retail investors. Although equities trading is its main business, it has expanded into more speculative functions like options and cryptocurrency trading, in addition to many traditional financial services.

At this point, it has high exposure to cryptocurrency movements, which is why the stock has been falling. Bitcoin is down 30% over the past three months, leading the decline. Cryptocurrency trading accounts for a large portion of transaction revenue, and since it declined in the fourth quarter, total revenue growth decelerated from 100% in the third quarter to only 27% in the fourth quarter.

Here's what happened. Transaction revenue increased 15% year over year in the fourth quarter. That included a 41% increase in options revenue, a 54% increase in equities revenue, a 300% increase in other transaction revenue, and a 38% decline in cryptocurrency revenue. In the prior year, cryptocurrency revenue gained 700% and accounted for more than half of transaction revenue, which is why the impact was felt so strongly.

Robinhood doesn't usually provide this "other" revenue figure, but it's being fueled today by the fairly new category of prediction markets. That's why the increase was so high, since last year, the other category didn't have this driver, and instead comprised other new products.

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Risk and reward The obvious thing to look for in Robinhood's trajectory is cryptocurrency trends. That's the main impacting feature in the near term. From a broader perspective, in order to envision Robinhood becoming a long-term viable company with growth potential, I'm watching how well it diversifies into more stable financial services. It already has a credit card and offers some banking services through a partner, and CEO Vlad Tenev says that it's building a "financial superapp."

If it's able to achieve that, it will become a much more stable and investable company.

The Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) has enjoyed a resurgence in 2026. The rest of the year looks good, but watch out for this one thing.

Over the past few years, you could simply invest in the S&P 500 and enjoy strong double-digit annual returns. Tilt more heavily toward megacap growth, and you likely did better. There wasn't a big need to figure out what style, factor, or strategy would lead to outperformance. You could invest in the broad U.S. stock market and do well.

But this year has marked a big change. Tech is no longer leading. Most major sectors are beating the S&P 500 year to date. Many styles and strategies that have gone ignored for years are suddenly looking attractive again.

That goes for dividend stocks as well. The Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG +0.20%) is up nearly 4% year to date compared to a flat return for the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. Its tilt toward quality and value has been a tailwind as the market continues rotating away from expensive tech stocks.

Let's break down how this ETF looks for the rest of 2026.

Image source: Getty Images.

Why the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF works in 2026 This ETF invests in more than 300 U.S. stocks that have a 10-year-plus track record of annual dividend growth. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are excluded, as are the top 25% highest yields from the eligible universe. That creates a portfolio of large, durable, cash-rich companies that have mature business models and are able to continue rewarding shareholders over time.

As we've seen over the past several years, there was little desire for the S&P 500's 1% to 2% yield when large-cap tech and growth stocks were returning 15% or more per year. That changed in 2026. Investors have grown more cautious about the U.S. economic outlook and the Federal Reserve's willingness to cut interest rates later this year. Valuations are already high, and without the potential catalysts to keep these stocks pushing higher, investors have transitioned over to more defensive, value-oriented areas of the market.

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That's worked well for dividend ETFs, whose portfolios are usually comprised mostly of non-tech stocks. Will this rotation be sustained through the remainder of this year? Given that so many sectors and styles are outperforming the S&P 500 right now, along with Treasuries, which have only recently gotten going, the backdrop is certainly favorable. Anytime the market expects the economy and jobs market to slow and is less willing to target more expensive stocks, that's a good thing for dividend stocks.

What to watch out for I'm not a fan of the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF's market cap-weighting strategy. It makes the largest qualifying stocks the biggest holdings in the fund regardless of dividend quality or history. The fund's current top three holdings are Broadcom, Microsoft, and Apple -- all stocks with less than a 1% yield.

That strategy results in this ETF having a much larger tech allocation (currently 26% of the portfolio) than most other dividend ETFs. That elevated exposure to a sector that's now very much out of favor makes the fund vulnerable to a deeper pullback.

Overall, the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF is filled with companies built to withstand more challenging environments. Its 1.6% yield won't necessarily get income investors excited, but it could beat the S&P 500 this year on total returns.

David Dierking has positions in Apple and Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple, Microsoft, Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF, and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Roblox: Regulatory Fears Will Fade As Bookings Grow

VictoryShares Free Cash Flow ETF earns a reiterated buy rating for its attractive valuation, strong track record, and robust technical setup. VFLO trades at a low 13.5x P/E with a 9.7% EPS growth rate, yielding a compelling PEG ratio below 1.5x. The ETF's portfolio features a barbell approach: overweight Energy, underweight IT versus S&P 500, and significant Health Care exposure.

FMC has reported back to back bad earnings quarters, and seen its stock price cut in half. FMC has a plan for a turnaround -- which includes possibly selling itself.

Universal Health Realty Income Trust: Good For Income Through Cycles

As AI uncertainty weighs on stocks, consider loading up on these dividend-growth blue chips instead.

Uncertainty about corporate spending on generative artificial intelligence (AI) continues to weigh on stocks. As markets remain rocky, long-term investors may want to take advantage of the turbulence by buying blue chip dividend stocks on weakness.

Even with just a small amount of starting capital, you can begin building a portfolio that compounds for decades to come.

Dividend stocks, particularly dividend-growth stocks, can serve as a strong foundation for a long-term portfolio. The steady gains from their respective payouts help to provide a solid baseline for returns.

Right now, three such names that stand out as potential buys are Dover Corp. (DOV +0.34%), NextEra Energy (NEE +0.59%), and Roper Technologies (ROP +1.14%).

Image source: Getty Images.

Dover's on a roll, thanks to its AI data center boom Dover is an industrial conglomerate. Think of it as similar to Danaher or Illinois Tool Works. However, two key factors make Dover stand out. First, it's one of the Dividend Kings, or stocks with at least 50 years of consecutive dividend growth.

Dover Corporation earned this status decades back, as it's nearing its 72nd consecutive annual dividend increase. Yes, as a dividend play, Dover is far from a high-yielder. Currently, shares have a forward yield of just 0.9%. Dividend growth, while steady, has been slow, averaging 1% annually over the past five years.

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Still, this dividend stock could still generate strong returns. Lately, Dover's overall growth has benefited from strong demand for the company's liquid cooling systems, driven by the rise of AI data centers worldwide. With profits surging, further dividend growth and price gains could continue to arrive at a rapid pace.

NextEra Energy is another beneficiary of increased AI spending NextEra Energy, a Florida-based utility company, is yet another "old economy" name with an AI catalyst in its corner. In light of booming energy demand from AI hyperscalers, NextEra has stated that the U.S. is now in "a golden age of power demand."

If NextEra's thesis proves correct, it will bode very well for this longtime dividend growth stock. NextEra Energy has raised its dividend annually for the past 31 years.

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Better yet, dividend growth has averaged 10.1% annually over the past five years. At current prices, the stock has a forward yield of 2.44%. While pricier than peers at 23.5 times forward earnings, this valuation is sustainable if growth trends persist. From there, shares could keep climbing in line with earnings growth.

The recent sell-off creates a unique opportunity to buy Roper Technologies Roper Technologies sells industry-specific enterprise software products, such as DAT Freight and Analytics for trucking and Deltek Costpoint for federal contractors. While previously a strong performer, shares have slumped lately, falling 37% over the past six months. In recent quarters, sales have slowed down.

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AI disruption fears have also placed pressure on the stock. Nevertheless, better times may be just around the corner. Moving forward, Roper's 1.1% dividend yield stands to have a greater impact on total returns. Roper has raised its dividend for 32 years in a row. Dividend growth has averaged 10% annually over the past five years.

More importantly, various catalysts could help drive a rebound, including possible new acquisitions, aggressive share repurchase plans, or even just the potential for Roper to beat walked-back growth expectations.

The Trade Desk has seen its stock collapse from $139 to $25, creating a deep value opportunity. Despite decelerating to 18% annual growth, TTD outpaces the US digital ad sector and improves margins via its AI platform Kokai. TTD trades at a forward PEG of 0.48x, with a pristine balance sheet and 16.8% ROE, signaling strong undervaluation and business efficiency.