Market Signal Briefing

Top investors say the global economy could continue growing in 2026, but financial markets may enter a more complex phase as the focus moves beyond a handful of dominant U.S. technology stocks. At a recent conference in Miami, leading asset managers highlighted that while the artificial intelligence boom remains strong, the easiest investment gains from the theme may already be behind investors.

Instead of concentrating capital in mega-cap technology companies, portfolio managers are increasingly diversifying into new sectors where growth, pricing power, and innovation are emerging. This shift could influence crypto markets, particularly bitcoin, which has often moved alongside high-growth technology stocks during strong risk-on periods.

Bitcoin currently trades around $67,377 and continues to attract attention as investors consider alternative assets outside traditional equities. However, bitcoin has not consistently acted as a hedge against a weakening U.S. dollar. In recent months, gold has remained the preferred asset when investors seek protection from dollar volatility. Still, as bitcoin matures and institutional adoption grows, its role as a diversification tool could strengthen.

Some investors expect the U.S. economy to remain resilient. Productivity improvements driven by artificial intelligence may help boost growth while moderating inflation pressures. Lower interest rates could also support risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. However, if inflation stays controlled and economic activity improves, investors may feel less urgency to move capital into alternative stores of value like bitcoin.

Meanwhile, equity markets may become more selective. After several years of strong gains in companies building AI infrastructure, investors are beginning to differentiate between long-term winners and weaker players. Capital is increasingly rotating toward industries such as electrification, industrial technology, and healthcare.

As markets evolve, analysts expect fewer easy momentum trades and more emphasis on careful asset selection. In this environment, bitcoin’s appeal may rely less on macroeconomic fear and more on its position as a liquid, decentralized asset offering diversification in an increasingly fragmented global market.

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TLDR: Bitcoin exchange reserves have steadily declined since late 2024, pointing to reduced short-term selling pressure in the market Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows began after BTC hit its ATH, directly reducing institutional demand and influencing overall price direction The pace of Bitcoin ETF outflows has slowed notably, suggesting institutional position adjustments may be nearing their completion point. XWIN Research warns that a return to rising ETF holdings would trigger a full reassessment of the current bearish base scenario.  Bitcoin ETF flows have emerged as a critical structural signal in the current market cycle. Following Bitcoin’s recent all-time high, XWIN Research Japan released Analysis Report No. 228.

The report examines how exchange reserves and ETF holdings interact as key market indicators. Together, these data points offer a clearer picture of institutional demand and overall Bitcoin supply dynamics currently.

Exchange Reserves Reflect a Broader Shift in Holding Behavior CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin exchange reserves have gradually declined since late 2024. Fewer coins on exchanges generally mean less immediate selling pressure in the market.

This trend points to a broader shift toward long-term holding or self-custody transfers. As a result, the available supply for short-term trading appears to be contracting steadily.

Ki Young Ju, Founder of CryptoQuant, shared supporting chart data on this exchange reserve trend. He noted the ongoing decline in Bitcoin balances held across major exchange platforms.

A sustained drop in exchange reserves is often associated with reduced short-term sell-side activity. However, it can equally reflect growing confidence among long-term Bitcoin participants.

XWIN Research indicates the market is currently in a supply-demand rebalancing phase. The short-term bias remains somewhat bearish, though selling pressure shows early signs of easing.

This combination of declining reserves and cautious sentiment creates a layered market picture. Analysts and traders are watching both supply and demand metrics closely at this time.

Supply-side data alone, however, cannot confirm the direction of the next price move. The current period resembles a consolidation phase following the post-ATH correction.

Institutional behavior, particularly as seen through ETF activity, plays a central role here. Both sides of the equation must align before a clearer directional trend can emerge.

ETF Outflow Pace Slows, Stabilization Comes Into View Bitcoin ETF flows turned negative after BTC reached its recent all-time high. Spot ETFs hold actual Bitcoin, so sustained outflows directly reduce available institutional demand.

The pace of these outflows has noticeably slowed in more recent data periods. This development may suggest that institutional position adjustments are approaching completion.

XWIN Research has previously noted that ETF flows act as a structural driver in Bitcoin cycles. The post-ATH outflows and the subsequent price correction broadly align with that earlier framework.

Ki Young Ju’s data, cited in the report, provides a visual representation of this pattern. Monitoring ETF holdings therefore remains essential for assessing near-term market conditions.

Recent observations show that ETF outflows have largely paused in the current period. This pause does not yet confirm that a new inflow cycle has begun.

However, it does reduce near-term selling pressure from the institutional side. XWIN Research states that a return to rising ETF holdings would require a full reassessment of its base scenario.

For now, Bitcoin ETF flows remain the clearest forward-looking indicator to watch. The market continues moving through a transitional period between correction and potential stabilization.

Until consistent institutional inflows return, caution remains the dominant market posture. Participants across the industry are closely watching upcoming ETF data for further directional cues.

Journalist

Posted: March 8, 2026

Market activity across crypto venues increasingly reflects the structural advantage of continuous trading infrastructure. Unlike traditional financial markets, crypto operates without closing hours, enabling uninterrupted price discovery throughout the week.

Traditional equity exchanges such as the NYSE and NASDAQ function for roughly 32.5 hours weekly. On the contrary, crypto markets sustain liquidity and trading activity across the full 168-hour cycle. This structural difference becomes especially relevant when geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks occur outside conventional trading windows.

During recent Middle East tensions, volatility surfaced over the weekend while traditional markets remained closed. Bitcoin [BTC] funding rates briefly turned negative as participants rapidly repriced global risk.

Meanwhile, derivatives dominated this ecosystem. Perpetual Futures volume reached over $92 trillion in 2025, exceeding spot trading by roughly 4.6 times.

At the same time, institutional OTC volumes rose 109% year over year, reinforcing crypto’s expanding role in continuous global risk pricing.

Hyperliquid’s architecture enables always-on derivatives markets Hyperliquid [HYPE] runs on a sovereign Layer-1 designed for high-speed derivatives trading. HyperBFT consensus delivers median block finality near 0.2 seconds, while the 99th percentile remains under 0.9 seconds. As a result, execution latency stays lower than many competing decentralized venues.

At the same time, the fully on-chain central limit order book enables direct price discovery and precise order matching. The cross-margin collateral model also links positions across markets, allowing traders to deploy capital more efficiently.

Market activity is evidence of this structure. At press time, daily perpetual futures volume was around $7.3 billion, while Open Interest stood near $5.8 billion.

Source: CoinGecko

Meanwhile, HIP-3 tokenized markets capture off-hours volatility, generating about $2.2 billion in daily volume.

WTI contracts alone surged 140% to roughly $242 million. HIP-4 outcome markets further expand derivatives coverage beyond price speculation.

Liquidity consolidation or market fragmentation? Hyperliquid is rapidly consolidating liquidity within decentralized derivatives markets. Over the past two years, global crypto derivatives activity has expanded by 75%. At the same time, decentralized exchanges increased their market share to about 10.2%. Within this shift, Hyperliquid has emerged as a major liquidity hub.

Order book depth seemed to reinforce this transition too. Hyperliquid holds roughly $3 million in BTC liquidity near the mid-price. In comparison, Binance maintains about $2.1 million in the same trading range. As a result, larger trades often face lower slippage.

Participation has continued to expand as market makers and institutions monitor liquidity conditions. If liquidity concentrates around shared collateral and composable derivatives, Hyperliquid could anchor a global 24/7 risk-transfer layer.

However, persistent fragmentation may limit its structural advantage.

Final Summary Crypto markets are increasingly functioning as the world’s continuous risk-pricing layer, where 24/7 trading and derivatives liquidity absorb macro shocks beyond traditional market hours. Hyperliquid [HYPE] is emerging as a major decentralized derivatives hub, where liquidity consolidation around shared collateral could redefine global 24/7 risk transfer.

The Shiba Inu exchange netflow has gone extremely negative despite the weak price trend, suggesting that retail and institutional traders are quietly accumulating the asset for cheaper prices.

While a negative netflow is a typical indicator of growing demand, the metric brings a bit of relief to market participants as it has come after multiple days of the leading meme token flashing consistent bearish signals, with the metric showing huge increases day by day.

SHIB exchange flow is hinting at another rallyOn Saturday, March 7, crypto analytics platform CryptoQuant showcased about a 3% decline in the Shiba Inu exchange netflow over the last 24 hours.

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As such, Shiba Inu’s netflow across all supported cryptocurrency exchanges is currently sitting at -131,956,300,000 SHIB. While the metric theoretically seems negative, it is quite bullish for SHIB’s potential price action.

This is because the metric shows that the amount of SHIB scooped out of exchanges for buying purposes over the last 24 hours is massively larger than the amount of tokens returned to exchanges for sales over the same period.

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With the difference being as large as over 131 billion tokens, it appears that traders are increasingly purchasing the leading meme token despite its ongoing price dip.

Although Shiba Inu might be trading in the red territory, this metric signals a potential price rally for SHIB, fueling confidence among traders.

Shiba Inu OI flips positive with 2.24% surgeApart from the promising exchange flows, it appears that Shiba Inu is also flashing bullish signals across its derivatives market despite its current price dip.

Following the growing demand signaled by its exchange movements, it appears that futures traders are also opening new positions in expectations of a potential price rally.

Over the last 24 hours, the Shiba Inu open interest has flipped positive, surging decently by 2.24% as over 10.09 trillion SHIB have been staked in active contracts. Traders on MEXC showed the most interest with a 28.03% surge.

CRCL stock emerged as one of the top gainers in the stock market this week, climbing 22% amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions that have pressured broader risk assets. TradingView data shows CRCL surpassed $100 for the first time this year, peaking above $108 on March 5 before closing the week near $102. The weekly rally pushes the stock up 26% year-to-date, making it one of the few crypto-related stocks showing gains in a bear market that has seen Bitcoin slide from its yearly high above $97,000.

Despite geopolitical uncertainty, including oil prices rising above $90, CRCL’s strong performance is tied to Circle’s growing dominance in the AI agent payments sector. Circle, the issuer of USDC, is positioning its stablecoin as the preferred medium of exchange for AI-driven transactions, leveraging its speed and cost efficiency compared with traditional payment systems.

Data from Visa and Allium highlights USDC’s growing adoption, with the stablecoin topping transaction volumes last month. Stablecoins collectively recorded $1.78 trillion in transactions, with USDC accounting for $1.28 trillion, surpassing competitors like USDT. This growing adoption reinforces investor confidence in Circle’s long-term prospects and the CRCL stock.

Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire emphasized the company’s focus on merging AI technology with blockchain and stablecoins to create a new financial ecosystem. He noted that AI agents overwhelmingly prefer USDC for their transactions. Over the past nine months, AI agents completed 140 million payments totaling $43 million, with 98.6% of these transactions settled in USDC.

Analysts are optimistic that the bullish trend could continue, with some predicting CRCL stock may reach $120 in the near term if adoption accelerates. As AI-driven commerce expands, Circle’s focus on AI agent payments positions it at the forefront of this emerging market, offering a potential boost for investors seeking exposure to the intersection of blockchain, stablecoins, and artificial intelligence.

With USDC’s adoption surging and Circle’s AI payment initiatives gaining traction, CRCL stock remains a standout in the crypto stock sector, attracting attention from investors navigating a challenging macroeconomic landscape.

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A large volume of US commercial real estate (CRE) debt is rolling into a very different market from the one that produced it.

The Mortgage Bankers Association says $875 billion of commercial and multifamily mortgages are scheduled to mature in 2026, equal to 17% of the roughly $5 trillion of outstanding balances it tracks.

While that's below the $957 billion that was due in 2025, it's still a massive refinancing event landing in a world where borrowing costs are far higher than they were when many of these loans were made.

That matters because commercial real estate debt doesn't disappear at maturity and usually gets refinanced. In low-rate years, that often meant rolling a loan into new debt with manageable payments. But today, the same property may face a higher coupon, tighter underwriting, and a lower appraised value all at the same time.

The Federal Reserve said in a report last year that transaction-based commercial property prices had been flat, while a sizable number of borrowers would need to refinance maturing loans in the next few years. By November 2025, the Fed said aggregate CRE prices were showing signs of stabilization, though credit standards were still tight and the refinancing issue had not gone away.

The math is simple. A building financed at a low rate can carry its debt as long as rental income covers interest and principal. When the loan matures, the owner has to replace it.

If the new rate is materially higher, annual debt service rises. If the property is worth less than it was a few years ago, the owner may also need to add fresh equity to close the gap. So if cash flow can't support the new payment, the options narrow quickly: sell the asset, negotiate an extension, inject capital, hand the keys back, or default.

That basic vulnerability is a recurring theme in the Fed’s stability work on commercial property refinancing.

Why CRE refinancing risk lands hardest on regional banksThe banking angle matters because small and regional banks are much more concentrated in commercial real estate than the largest institutions.

A 2025 paper found that almost a third of US commercial mortgage dollars sit on regional bank balance sheets. An earlier Cohen & Steers analysis put the figure for regional and community banks at 31.5% of outstanding commercial mortgages.

The exact number is less important than the message: even if commercial real estate isn't a universal banking problem, it can still be a serious problem for a subset of lenders.

Regulators have been making that point for years. Interagency guidance on CRE concentration risk says concentrations add a layer of risk that compounds the risk of individual loans. The FDIC says institutions with CRE concentration risk may require additional supervisory analysis, and its 2023 advisory told banks with CRE concentrations to focus on capital, loan-loss reserves, liquidity, and tighter risk management in what it called a challenging environment.

The Government Accountability Office made the same point in more practical terms. Its 2024 review said the rise in remote and hybrid work, higher rates, and lower prices had made it harder for some property owners to repay loans, especially in office. It also said banks had responded by modifying loans, tightening standards, and drawing heavier regulatory scrutiny where CRE concentrations were high.

This is already a managed stress point. The open question is how smoothly banks can keep managing it as another large maturity year arrives.

The Office of Financial Research framed the risk more sharply. In a 2024 brief, it said future CRE losses could exceed shareholders’ equity for hundreds of smaller banks under severe loss assumptions, especially where institutions also carry large unrealized securities losses and sizable uninsured deposits.

That's not a forecast of imminent bank failures, but a warning about future sensitivity. A bank with a concentrated CRE book doesn't need the whole market to break, just enough loans in the wrong places, at the wrong loan-to-value ratios, to turn a refinancing problem into a capital problem.

The real weakness is the office, and that is where valuation risk lingersCommercial real estate sounds like one trade, but it's not. Apartments, industrial warehouses, neighborhood retail, hotels, and office towers don't all behave the same way.

Offices still carry the heaviest structural baggage because demand changed when hybrid work took hold, and that fed directly into vacancy, rent growth, and valuations. The GAO said those strains were particularly acute for office properties, and MSCI said office underperformed broader US commercial real estate in 2025.

MSCI’s price data shows why that distinction matters. The January 2026 RCA CPPI report said the national all-property index was up just 0.3% from a year earlier and down 0.1% from the previous month, which is a picture of stabilization, not a broad rebound.

MSCI’s wider US market work also described weakening price momentum, with downtown office still acting as a drag on the aggregate market. That doesn't mean every office building is distressed. But it shows that the part of the market with the weakest demand profile is still the part most likely to create refinancing friction and valuation disputes.

The spillover risk comes from what banks do when losses start to crystallize.

They reserve more, get more selective, and pull back from marginal borrowers. The Fed treats CRE as a broader vulnerability because losses never stay neatly inside a single building or one loan file.

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Credit tightening at CRE-heavy banks can spill into construction lending, small-business credit, and local development pipelines. A real estate problem can become a local economy problem well before it becomes a national banking crisis.

Where Bitcoin fits into the spillover storyCommercial real estate stress matters for crypto through the same channels that carry stress into the rest of the market: liquidity, credit, and risk appetite.

If regional banks take losses, tighten lending, or become more defensive, money gets more expensive across the system, and that tends to hit speculative assets first. Bitcoin may be structurally different from tech stocks or real estate, but in periods when markets are repricing growth, credit, and liquidity all at once, it still trades inside the same macro environment.

The immediate effect would probably be how investors react to tighter financial conditions. A refinancing crunch in CRE could push banks to conserve capital, slow loan growth, and reinforce a broader risk-off tone across markets.

Tighter liquidity usually weighs on leverage, reduces demand for high-volatility assets, and makes it harder for bullish positioning to build. In that setup, Bitcoin can come under pressure even if nothing inside crypto itself is broken.

The longer-term effect is more complicated, and it depends on how far the banking stress goes.

If CRE stress stays contained, Bitcoin is likely to trade it mainly as another macro headwind. But if pressure on regional banks starts to revive broader doubts about the stability of the banking system, the asset can start to pick up a different bid.

That's the point where Bitcoin's role as a non-bank financial asset becomes more relevant. It doesn't automatically turn every banking stress event into a bullish crypto story, but a deeper loss of confidence in bank balance sheets, deposit safety, or credit creation could eventually strengthen the case for Bitcoin as an asset outside the traditional financial system.

That larger market reaction is still secondary to the core question in commercial real estate itself, which is whether refinancing stress stays manageable or starts showing up more clearly in bank credit data.

There are signs the strain is real, even if it's still not explosive.

The FDIC’s fourth-quarter 2025 Quarterly Banking Profile said past-due and nonaccrual rates for non-owner-occupied CRE and multifamily CRE were still well above pre-pandemic averages. That tells you two things at once: some stress has already surfaced, and the system is still operating with abnormal credit quality in important CRE books.

That's why the next phase of this story isn't one scary number but four practical indicators:

How much of the 2026 maturity calendar gets refinanced cleanly, and how much gets extended because lenders don't want to force a loss?Do office-heavy markets keep producing discounted sales that reset comparable values lower?Do delinquency and charge-off measures climb at banks with concentrated CRE portfolios?Does tighter bank behavior start to show up in local credit conditions outside real estate?The best way to read the situation is this: the maturity wall is real, the danger is concentrated, and offices still do most of the damage.

A national banking collapse isn't the base case in the public data. A drawn-out credit squeeze at the wrong banks, in the wrong cities, tied to refinancing that no longer pencils out, is much easier to imagine. That's what makes this bigger than a property story. It's a test of how much pain regional balance sheets can absorb before real estate stress starts leaking into the rest of the economy.

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TLDR: Circle launched Arc blockchain and nanopayments, cutting transaction costs to fractions of a penny for AI agents. Stripe and Paradigm built Tempo blockchain, raising $500M at a $5B valuation for stablecoin payment rails. Credit card fees make microtransactions unworkable, giving stablecoins a structural edge in machine-to-machine commerce. Coinbase’s x402 recorded just $24M in volume, exposing a wide gap between agentic payment ambition and adoption.
Circle Internet Group and Stripe are locked in a race to build payment systems for a world that does not yet exist. Both companies are developing infrastructure designed for autonomous AI agents that settle transactions in stablecoins.

The goal is to replace the traditional credit card swipe with programmable, machine-driven payments. Investors are watching closely, with Stripe reaching a $159 billion valuation and Circle shares climbing nearly 30% since the start of 2026. The competition is already reshaping how the payments industry thinks about the future.

Two Companies, One Vision, Different Approaches Circle is moving fast on the infrastructure side. The company launched Arc, a new blockchain built specifically for stablecoin payments.

It also began testing “nanopayments,” a capability that lets autonomous agents hold balances and transact across networks.

Costs run at fractions of a penny per transaction, making high-frequency machine-to-machine commerce economically practical for the first time.

Stripe is taking a different but equally aggressive path. Together with crypto venture firm Paradigm, it is building Tempo, a blockchain designed from the ground up for stablecoin settlement.

Circle Internet Group and Stripe are racing to build payment systems for a world in which autonomous AI agents settle in stablecoins, replacing the swipe of a credit card https://t.co/aUiDzSUqb6

— Bloomberg (@business) March 7, 2026

The project raised $500 million at a $5 billion valuation, with Visa, Mastercard, UBS, and Shopify signing on as partners.

Stripe has also spent more than $1.1 billion acquiring stablecoin infrastructure, including the 2025 purchase of Bridge.

The two companies are effectively building parallel highways toward the same destination. Circle is focused on the settlement layer and the nanopayment capability.

Stripe is focused on merchant integration and blockchain rails. Together, their investments represent the most serious institutional bet yet that stablecoins will power the next generation of commerce.

Why Credit Cards Cannot Compete in an Agent-Driven World The structural argument against credit cards is straightforward. Traditional card networks charge fixed fees and percentage-based pricing on every transaction.

That model works for a consumer buying a $50 item but breaks down entirely when a software agent pays cents for a data request or an API call.

Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire framed the opportunity clearly on the company’s February 25 earnings call. He described a future where AI agents consume services from one another at scale.

A legal skills agent, for instance, might field thousands of micro-requests from external agents daily. Each transaction might be worth only a fraction of a dollar, making card fees prohibitive.

Analyst Mark Palmer of Benchmark-StoneX reinforced that point. “Microtransactions are a poor fit for traditional rails in terms of cost, latency and programmability,” he said.

Stablecoins embedded directly into software workflows, he added, remove the settlement delays and cost structures that make cards unworkable at that scale.

The Road Between Ambition and Adoption Despite the infrastructure race, real-world volume tells a more cautious story. Coinbase’s x402, an open standard built for agentic payments, reported just $24 million in total volume over the past 30 days.

That figure sits against a global e-commerce market projected to reach $6.88 trillion this year. The gap between the two numbers is difficult to overlook.

Merchant adoption presents another hurdle. Chris Donat of BWG Global noted that merchants follow consumer demand.

“They aren’t going to bother accepting something unless they are asked by a meaningful number of consumers to do it,” he said. Right now, consumers are not asking for stablecoin payments in significant numbers.

Stablecoin transactions also lack the fraud protection, dispute resolution, and credit extension built into every card payment.

A practical near-term path may involve AI agents using virtual cards that settle on the back end through stablecoin rails.

That model would allow card networks and stablecoin infrastructure to coexist, rather than forcing an immediate winner-takes-all outcome.

Allaire himself acknowledged that the timeline for meaningful agentic transaction volume remains uncertain, even as the race to build the pipes intensifies.

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SIGN just exploded past 100% gains this week while most markets tanked hard. Sign Global’s native token jumped from $0.02089 to $0.05278 in just days, pretty much doubling investor money when Bitcoin and traditional stocks were bleeding red. Right now it’s trading at $0.04729, pushing the market cap to around $77.56 million according to CoinMarketCap data.

Sign Global caught everyone’s attention with its decentralized infrastructure that’s basically designed to keep countries running when everything else falls apart. The company built blockchain solutions that help nations secure their governance data and identity systems, making them way more resilient against cyberattacks and other disruptions. While legacy systems crumble under pressure with their centralized weak points, Sign’s distributed approach keeps critical services online no matter what hits them. The timing couldn’t be better – geopolitical tensions are through the roof with conflicts involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran adding fuel to the fire that started with Russia-Ukraine. Supply chains are getting hammered and cybersecurity threats are everywhere, creating massive demand for systems that can’t be easily knocked offline.

Traditional infrastructures are sitting ducks. Too centralized, too slow.

Sign offers something completely different – a decentralized alternative that supports national operations through secure, distributed ledgers. Citizens and businesses keep access to essential services even when primary systems get hit by cyberattacks or natural disasters. The blockchain-backed infrastructure operates independently, which is exactly what governments need right now. And investors are clearly betting big on this approach, driving SIGN’s value up fast.

The company didn’t just build cool tech and hope for the best – they’ve been making strategic moves to get their technology into real-world applications. Sign Global partnered with the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic, the Blockchain Centre Abu Dhabi, and Sierra Leone’s Ministry of Communication, Tech, and Innovation. These collaborations focus on modernizing financial systems and expanding digital inclusion across different regions.

Sign doesn’t want to replace existing national systems.

Instead, it acts as a parallel layer that provides redundancy when primary systems fail. Government operations and essential services keep running no matter what happens to the main infrastructure. The surge in SIGN’s value shows investors get the strategic utility here – it’s not just another crypto token, it’s infrastructure that countries actually need.

On March 5, Sierra Leone’s Ministry of Communication, Tech, and Innovation announced they’re integrating Sign’s blockchain solutions into their national identity system. The move aims to boost data security and streamline access to government services, showing how Sign’s technology works in practice for safeguarding national records. It’s one thing to talk about blockchain solutions, but Sierra Leone is actually implementing them for critical government functions. This follows earlier reporting on Dubai Regulator Shuts Down KuCoins Unlicensed.

The Kyrgyzstan partnership with the National Bank is pretty noteworthy too. Since their collaboration started in late 2025, the bank reported better transparency and efficiency in financial transactions. The partnership shows growing trust in blockchain solutions for improving institutional operations and securing financial networks. Banks don’t usually jump into new tech without serious due diligence, so this endorsement carries weight.

Meanwhile, the Blockchain Centre Abu Dhabi revealed on March 3 that it plans to use Sign’s technology for secure data sharing among regional financial institutions. The initiative should create a more interconnected and transparent economic environment in the Middle East. These aren’t small pilot programs – they’re substantial implementations that could reshape how financial institutions operate in the region.

Other nations are watching these partnerships closely and considering similar tech upgrades. Private sector players are also exploring Sign’s decentralized systems to enhance their operational resilience. The interest reflects a broader shift toward adopting blockchain for critical infrastructure needs, not just speculative trading.

On March 4, the Central Bank of the UAE announced it’s evaluating Sign’s digital infrastructure for national payment systems. The move aims to enhance security and efficiency of cross-border transactions as part of UAE’s broader blockchain adoption strategy. When central banks start evaluating your technology, that’s serious validation.

FinTech firm DigitalGrid revealed on March 2 that it plans to integrate Sign’s blockchain framework into its operations. The company wants to leverage the technology for better transaction transparency and fraud reduction in digital payments. Private enterprises are recognizing Sign’s infrastructure can provide enhanced security measures they desperately need.

Investment firm Global Capital announced on March 6 it would include SIGN in its diversified portfolio, citing recent performance and strategic importance. The decision reflects growing confidence in Sign Global’s role in shaping future economic infrastructures. When institutional investors start adding tokens to their portfolios, it usually signals broader market acceptance. More on this topic: Bitcoin rises amid iranian tensions shaking.

Sign Global CEO Elena Koval addressed the recent market movements on March 7, emphasizing their infrastructure’s importance for reliable national economic systems. “Our mission is to ensure that countries have the technological tools to maintain sovereignty over their data and financial networks, especially in times of crisis,” Koval said. The statement highlights the company’s commitment to real-world impact rather than just token speculation.

The Kyrgyz Republic’s blockchain initiative already shows promising results. As of March 6, the National Bank reported a 30% increase in processing speed for cross-border transactions after adopting Sign’s decentralized infrastructure. That’s a concrete improvement in efficiency that demonstrates the technology’s practical benefits beyond theoretical advantages.

The Blockchain Centre Abu Dhabi plans to expand its collaboration with Sign Global further. On March 5, the Centre announced a regional conference for April focusing on blockchain’s role in economic stability. The event will bring together government officials and industry leaders to discuss integrating blockchain technology into national frameworks. These high-level discussions show the strategic importance of blockchain innovations for national infrastructure.

SIGN’s trading volume hit a new high on March 6, with analysts attributing the surge to confidence in Sign Global’s strategic partnerships and expanding technology applications. The heightened activity shows market recognition of the potential in blockchain-backed national infrastructure. Trading volume spikes usually indicate serious institutional interest, not just retail speculation.

As geopolitical tensions continue escalating and traditional systems show their vulnerabilities, Sign Global’s decentralized infrastructure becomes more valuable. Countries need backup systems that can’t be easily disrupted, and Sign provides exactly that capability. The 100% token surge reflects this growing recognition among both governments and investors.

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Quantum computing has the potential to be the big tech breakthrough that comes after artificial intelligence (AI). However, it is an emerging field that still has a lot of technological issues that need to be worked through before it can become useful and then commercialized. As such, stocks involved in the field tend to be speculative.

With that said, let's look at two quantum computing stocks that have a lot of potential.

Image source: Getty Images.

IonQ The biggest issue currently facing quantum computing is that the technology is still error-prone. That's why IonQ (IONQ 0.80%) is one of my favorites in the space, because its trapped-ion technology has shown to be among the most accurate, with the company achieving 99.99% 2-gate fidelity. While 99.99% accuracy may sound like a lot, when you're doing billions or a trillion calculations per second, that still leads to a lot of errors. However, this is the threshold for the company to start using quantum error correction to create a fault-tolerant system.

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Meanwhile, the company has made a lot of smart acquisitions to help it solve pressing problems with scaling and to become a more complete quantum ecosystem player. One of its most important acquisitions was buying Oxford Ionics, which gave it the electronic qubit control technology to better stabilize its trapped-ion system and eventually shrink it. Meanwhile, its pending acquisition of SkyWater will give it control of a leading quantum foundry to help it scale and better incorporate its designs with the manufacturing process.

While quantum computing is still in its very early days, IonQ has seen its revenue skyrocket, as both the private and public sectors become more interested in the technology. In Q4, its revenue surged 429% to $61.9 million, coming in well above its guidance. Meanwhile, IonQ was recently selected for the Missile Defense Agency's SHIELD IDIQ program, which is the procurement backbone of the "Golden Dome" initiative. While the contract has a massive $151 billion ceiling, its true value to IonQ is that it gives the company a seat at the table to compete for specialized Pentagon task orders in quantum sensing, networking, and high-speed simulation.

D-Wave Quantum Another interesting stock in the quantum computing space is D-Wave Quantum (QBTS 1.17%). The company started out focusing on quantum annealing, which is a more specialized field within quantum computing that looks to solve optimization problems. Rather than trying to build a do-everything machine, its systems instead are trying to determine the ideal state for a particular problem by landing on the best possible solution.

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It's not as ambitious as a gate-based quantum system, and thus D-Wave is much further along in the commercialization process than companies focused on more universal gate-based systems. With its Advantage II system, it now has a machine that can help organizations solve optimization problems, which can be useful in industries like logistics, finance, and defense. The company is starting to see momentum in this area, announcing that its bookings in January have surpassed its bookings for its entire fiscal 2025. It noted it won a $20 million deal with Florida Atlantic University and that it entered a two-year, $10 million quantum-compute-as-a-service (QCAS) arrangement with a Fortune 100 company.

With the company seeing momentum in quantum annealing, it is also now working on a gate-based system. It will use fluxonium qubits with its gate-based systems, which it believes are comparable to the qubits it uses with quantum annealing. It also recently acquired Quantum Circuits and its dual rail technology. It says this technology combines the speed of superconducting qubits with the fidelity of trapped-ion technology. If true, that would be a game-changer, but at this point, that has not been independently verified. Still, its dual platform approach makes it an interesting option.

Plug Power (PLUG 6.99%) recently published its fourth-quarter results, and the report arrived with plenty for shareholders to be happy about. For starters, the hydrogen-energy-tech company posted a loss of $0.06 per share on sales of $225.2 million -- significantly better than the average analyst estimate's call for a per-share loss of $0.10 on revenue of $217 million.

In addition to posting a smaller-than-expected loss and sales that beat expectations, the company issued promising forward guidance. It also announced that Jose Luis Crespo had become its next CEO, succeeding Andrew Marsh in the role.

Image source: Getty Images.

Could Plug Power be on the verge of becoming an income-generating stock that delivers 10x or greater returns for investors who build positions at today's prices?

What's next for Plug Power? Plug Power saw a dramatic improvement in its gross margin in last year's fourth quarter, with its gross margin of 2.4% standing out against the gross margin of negative 122.5% that it recorded in the prior-year quarter. Sales growth of 17.6% in the fourth quarter also represented a significant acceleration of growth on a sequential quarterly basis.

While the company saw its Q4 loss per share decline to $0.63 from $1.48 in the prior-year period, Plug Power is still operating deep in the red. Additionally, it remains to be seen if the company's margin improvements are sustainable.

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Plug Power's revenue rose 12.9% on an annual basis to reach roughly $710 million last year. The company indicated that 2026's sales growth is expected to be "directionally comparable" to last year's level, with growth driven by the company's electrolyzer and material handling businesses. Meanwhile, management said that the business is expected to achieve positive earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in this year's fourth quarter.

Plug Power closed out 2025 by posting a net loss of approximately $1.69 billion. Meanwhile, the company has a market capitalization of approximately $3.1 billion and ended last year with a cash-and-equivalents and restricted-cash position of roughly $323.5 million against total liabilities of roughly $1.59 billion.

Plug Power is a long way away from generating the net income and free cash flow to support sustainable dividend payments. Companies typically pay dividends when they're generating reliable cash flow, and it makes sense to apportion some of that cash to be directly returned to shareholders. Paying dividends is unlikely to be a sensible move any time within the next five years, but it's not outside the realm of possibility that the company's stock could offer a meaningful payout sometime further down the line.

Plug Power stock continues to look like a very risky play, but the potential for explosive returns accompanies that risk if the company executes at a high level and capitalizes on demand for hydrogen fuel cells. Expecting the company to generate 10x returns and pay sizable dividends within the next five years may not be realistic, but its recent quarterly report points to performance improvements that could support capital appreciation.

Did you buy RARE common stock between August 3, 2023, and December 26, 2025?

Affected Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. Investor Summary

Who: Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ: RARE)What: Securities fraud class action lawsuit filedClass Period: August 3, 2023, through December 26, 2025Deadline to Seek Lead Plaintiff Status: April 6, 2026Key Lawsuit Allegations: Material misstatements and/or omissions concerning the company’s drug, setrusumabInvestor Action: Contact Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP (www.ktmc.com) for recovery options at no cost to investor RADNOR, Pa., March 07, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP (www.ktmc.com) informs investors that a securities fraud class action lawsuit has been filed against Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (Ultragenyx) (NASDAQ: RARE) on behalf of those who purchased or acquired Ultragenyx common stock between August 3, 2023, and December 26, 2025, inclusive. The lawsuit is filed in the United States District Court for the Northern District of California and is captioned Bailey v. Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc., et al, Case No. 3:26-cv-01097 (N.D. Cal.).   Investors have until April 6, 2026, to file for lead plaintiff status.  

CONTACT KTMC TO DISCUSS YOUR LEGAL RIGHTS:
If you purchased or acquired Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. common stock and have lost money on your investment, you are encouraged to contact KTMC attorney Jonathan Naji, Esq. at:

(484) 270-1453
[email protected]
https://www.ktmc.com/rare-ultragenyx-pharmaceutical-inc-class-action-lawsuit?utm_source=Globe&utm_medium=pressrelease&utm_campaign=rare&mktm=PR

There is no cost or obligation to speak with an attorney.

Learn more about Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. on YouTube:

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. Securities Class Action Lawsuit (long video)Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. Securities Class Action Lawsuit (short video) ULTRAGENYX PHARMACEUTICAL INC. CLASS ACTION LAWSUIT - COMPLAINT ALLEGATION SUMMARY:
The complaint alleges that, throughout the Class Period, Defendants made false and/or misleading statements and/or failed to disclose that: (1) Ultragenyx created the false impression that they possessed reliable information pertaining to the effects of the company’s drug, setrusumab, on patients with variable types of Osteogenesis Imperfecta, while also minimizing risk that patients in Ultragenyx’s Phase III Orbit study would fail to achieve a statistically significant reduction in annualized fracture rate (“AFR”), such that the second interim analysis could be performed and presented to the investing public; (2) in truth, Ultragenyx’s optimism in the Phase III Orbit study’s results and interim analysis benchmark were misplaced because Ultragenyx failed to convey the risk associated with basing such threshold figures on Phase II results that had no placebo control group for appropriate comparison and thus had not ruled out that the reduction in AFR from that study could merely be triggered by an increased standard of care and the placebo effect of being provided a novel treatment; and (3) as a result, Defendants’ positive statements about the company’s business, operations, and prospects were materially misleading and/or lacked a reasonable basis.

Why did Ultragenyx’s Stock Drop?
On December 29, 2025, Ultragenyx shocked the market when it revealed that both its Phase III Orbit and Cosmic studies had not “achieved statistical significance against the primary endpoints of reduction in annualized clinical fracture rate compared to placebo or bisphosphonates, respectively.” On this news, Ultragenyx’s stock price fell over 42%, from a close of $34.19 per share on December 26, 2025, to close at $19.72 per share on December 29, 2025.

WHAT RARE INVESTORS CAN DO NOW:

File to be lead plaintiff by April 6, 2026.Contact KTMC for a free case evaluation.Retain counsel of choice or take no action. THE LEAD PLAINTIFF PROCESS FOR ULTRAGENYX PHARMACEUTICAL INC. INVESTORS:
Ultragenyx investors may, no later than April 6, 2026, seek to be appointed as a lead plaintiff representative of the class through Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP or other counsel, or may choose to do nothing and remain an absent class member. A lead plaintiff is a representative party who acts on behalf of all class members in directing the litigation.  The lead plaintiff is usually the investor or small group of investors who have the largest financial interest and who are also adequate and typical of the proposed class of investors. The lead plaintiff selects counsel to represent the lead plaintiff and the class and these attorneys, if approved by the court, are lead or class counsel. Your ability to share in any recovery is not affected by the decision of whether or not to serve as a lead plaintiff.

Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP encourages Ultragenyx investors to contact the firm for more information.

ABOUT KESSLER TOPAZ MELTZER & CHECK, LLP (KTMC):
Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP (KTMC) is a leading U.S. plaintiff-side law firm focused on securities-fraud class actions and global investor protection. The firm represents individual investors as well as institutions, such as major pension funds, asset managers, and international investors. KTMC has led some of the largest recoveries in securities litigation and has been recognized by peers and the legal media with numerous accolades, including The National Law Journal’s Plaintiff’s Hot List and Trailblazers in Plaintiffs' Law, BTI Consulting Group’s Honor Roll of Most Feared Law Firms, The Legal Intelligencer’s Class Action Firm of the Year, Lawdragon’s Leading Plaintiff Financial Lawyers, and Law360’s Titans of the Plaintiffs Bar. The firm operates globally with offices in Pennsylvania and California.  KTMC has recovered over $25 billion for our clients and the classes they represent. For more information about Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP, please visit www.ktmc.com. The complaint in this matter was not filed by KTMC.

CONTACT:

Jonathan Naji, Esq.
(484) 270-1453
280 King of Prussia Road
Radnor, PA 19087
[email protected]

        May be considered attorney advertising in certain jurisdictions. Past results do not guarantee future outcomes.

Since last October, when Microsoft (MSFT 0.43%) surged to an all-time high of $540 per share, the stock has been in free fall. As of March 3, shares are down some 24% from those October highs to $410 per share.

The drop is in part due to investors rotating out of overvalued tech stocks, but there are also Microsoft-specific concerns that have caused the price to tank. Most of the decline came after Microsoft's fiscal second-quarter earnings report for the period ended Dec. 31. Shares plummeted more than 17% to below $400 per share on several concerns.

Image source: Getty Images.

Part of it was high capital expenditures (capex) and artificial intelligence (AI) spending for 2026. Investors are concerned that while Microsoft's Azure AI cloud computing revenue has been strong, it grew at a slightly slower pace last quarter. And the expectation for next quarter is even a little bit slower. We're talking a 40% growth pace falling to 37% to 38% growth, so it's not like a massive drop-off.

However, it was enough to rattle some investors, particularly when combined with the fact that Microsoft had record capex spending last quarter and anticipates even higher capex spending this fiscal year.

OpenAI concentration risk The other concern is Microsoft's partnership with OpenAI. Much of its massive $625 billion in remaining performance obligations, or RPO -- AI contracts in the pipeline -- comes from OpenAI, about 45% to be exact, according to Microsoft CFO Amy Hood on the latest earnings call.

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There are worries about Microsoft stock because of fears that OpenAI won't be able to fulfill those contracts due to reports that OpenAI expects to lose money in 2026. Also, investors see the RPO numbers as perhaps inflated because some of the OpenAI RPO is from Microsoft's investments in the company.

Overall, it spells concentration risk for Microsoft as investors worry about the true value of the RPO.

Can Microsoft get to $500 per share this year? These are valid concerns, but perhaps a bit overblown. Microsoft Azure's growth rate is still incredibly strong, and it continues to grow faster than Amazon.

OpenAI concentration risk should be watched, but the same report that said it will lose money in 2026 said the company expects to be profitable by 2029. Plus, OpenAI has grown at a historically fast pace, with 233% run rate revenue growth in 2025, so it remains a long-term growth engine for AI.

And Microsoft is actively expanding its AI reach, signing deals with Anthropic as well as inking a $50 billion deal to bring AI to Southern Hemisphere nations as part of the Global South initiative.

The fact is, despite these concerns, some of which are speculative, Microsoft is trading at its lowest valuation in years at 24 times earnings and 20 times forward earnings. Some 92% of analysts rate it as a buy with a median price target of $600 per share, which suggests 48% upside.

The $600-per-share target is for 12 months out, so that would indicate Microsoft would hit $500 per share within a year. Whether or not this happens remains to be seen, but the stock certainly looks well-positioned to do so.

Palm Beach, Florida--(Newsfile Corp. - March 7, 2026) - Korean-inspired skincare brand SeoulCeuticals has launched the Ultra Snail + Volufiline Serum, becoming the first company to combine trending cosmetic ingredient Volufiline with Snail Mucin in a single serum formulated at the manufacturer-recommended 5% concentration. The new formula pairs the trending topical plumping ingredient with K-beauty's most trusted hydration staple.

OVERVIEW

Volufiline has emerged as one of the most talked-about skincare ingredients in 2025 and 2026, going viral on TikTok as a non-invasive topical option for consumers seeking plumper-looking skin. The ingredient is already available in standalone concentrates and peptide-paired formulas, but no brand had previously combined it with Snail Mucin, K-beauty's most recognized hydration ingredient.

SeoulCeuticals' Ultra Snail + Volufiline Serum fills that gap. The four-ingredient formula pairs 5% Volufiline with Snail Mucin, Centella Asiatica, and Hyaluronic Acid to address volume, repair, barrier support, and hydration in a single step.

SeoulCeuticals is the first skincare brand to combine Volufiline and Snail Mucin in a single serum.

KEY RESULTS

Each ingredient in the Ultra Snail + Volufiline Serum is supported by clinical research:

Volufiline at 5% concentration produced a 2.2% increase in volume after 56 days in clinical testing conducted by SPINCONTROL on behalf of ingredient developer Sederma.Hyaluronic Acid demonstrated up to a 96% increase in skin hydration and up to a 40% decrease in wrinkle depth after 8 weeks in a 2014 clinical study.Snail Mucin showed significant improvement in fine lines, crow's feet, and skin luminance after 14 weeks of use in a 25-participant study referenced by the Mayo Clinic.Centella Asiatica is clinically confirmed to support anti-aging, skin barrier repair, and anti-inflammatory treatment, per published PubMed research.The global K-beauty market reached $118.28 billion in 2025, with North America accounting for approximately 25% of global market share.HOW IT WORKS

Volufiline is a patented ingredient developed by Sederma, now part of Croda International. Its active compound, sarsasapogenin, is derived from the root of Anemarrhena asphodeloides, a plant native to China and Mongolia and known in traditional Chinese medicine as Zhi Mu. Sarsasapogenin is a phytosterol that works through a non-hormonal pathway, making it suitable for topical cosmetic use.

Applied topically, sarsasapogenin activates the PPARgamma receptor pathway, the biological switch that governs fat cell maturation. It encourages immature fat cell precursors to develop into mature adipocytes and stimulates those cells to store more lipid, producing a visible volume effect beneath the skin's surface. Sederma's clinical testing used 5% Volufiline, exactly the concentration in SeoulCeuticals' formula.

Snail Mucin provides a complementary layer of benefit. The ingredient is a complex mixture containing hyaluronic acid, glycolic acid, glycoproteins, allantoin, and antimicrobial peptides. While Volufiline works at the level of the hypodermis, Snail Mucin supports hydration, cell regeneration, collagen stimulation, and wound healing at the skin's upper layers.

Centella Asiatica rounds out the formula with four active triterpenoid compounds: asiaticoside, asiatic acid, madecassic acid, and madecassoside. These compounds stimulate collagen synthesis, reduce inflammation, and reinforce the skin barrier. Hyaluronic Acid delivers surface hydration and contributes to the formula's lightweight plumping effect.

"The K-beauty movement has consistently introduced the world to new skincare ingredients years before they become mainstream," said Craig Romero, Founder of SeoulCeuticals. "Snail mucin is a perfect example. What once felt unfamiliar has become a global skincare staple. We believe Volufiline represents another exciting step forward in ingredient innovation."

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

SeoulCeuticals has published a detailed ingredient guide covering how Volufiline and Snail Mucin work together, the clinical research behind each ingredient, and a full breakdown of the four-ingredient formula.

To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/286513

Source: Plentisoft

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Caterpillar (CAT 3.57%) is an iconic industrial company known for its yellow construction equipment. But as artificial intelligence (AI) spreads rapidly, you need to think about Caterpillar in a broader way. Here's how this industrial giant is adapting and evolving to support the AI revolution.

The old Caterpillar is well-positioned Caterpillar is historically known for making construction equipment, like backhoes and dump trucks. The industrial company's giant earth-moving machinery is used to build the world around us, from roads to buildings. The business is somewhat cyclical, as construction tends to ebb and flow with economic activity. However, some positive, big-picture trends are taking shape.

Image source: Getty Images.

For example, companies are increasingly reshoring production. That means new buildings and factories are needed. And artificial intelligence has led to a data center construction boom among companies that are trying to establish themselves as AI technology leaders. If there's a lot of building going on, there's likely to be a huge need for the earth-moving machines for which Caterpillar is best known.

There's more to Caterpillar than backhoes In addition to earth-moving equipment, Caterpillar also makes power equipment. It produces engines that can provide power in remote locations or act as backups when grid power goes down. One of the most important industries for Caterpillar's power products is energy. Extracting oil and natural gas, the latter fuel being integral to the proper functioning of the electric energy grid, will be a material market for years to come.

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But don't stop with oil and gas producers. The utility industry will need to spend heavily to keep up with rising electricity demand. Between 2023 and 2030, electricity demand worldwide is expected to increase by 43%. Demand from data centers is expected to jump 200%.

The grid investment needed will be another key support for Caterpillar's business. And Caterpillar's ability to provide dedicated power options before grid access is available could specifically help support faster data center buildouts. Meanwhile, its ability to provide backup power can help to keep data centers up and running during blackouts.

A lot of opportunities ahead for Caterpillar When you step back and look at the big picture, AI is a huge opportunity for Caterpillar, well beyond its historical construction focus. However, investors aren't exactly ignoring the opportunity, noting that the stock's price-to-sales and price-to-earnings ratios are well above their five-year averages. Still, Caterpillar probably deserves a spot on your AI wish list just the same, given the tendency for sizable drawdowns among cyclical stocks.

This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.

© Sundry Photography / iStock Editorial via Getty Images

Jim Cramer made a pointed observation recently, and it’s worth unpacking for anyone watching the AI chip space. “While Broadcom has been a huge winner in the AI era, up nearly 500% since the beginning of 2023, Marvell has only rallied about 140% over the same period.” The data backs him up almost exactly: Broadcom is up 524% since January 2023, while Marvell has gained 152% over the same stretch. Same AI tailwind, dramatically different outcomes. So what happened, and is the gap finally closing?

Two Companies, One Thesis Both Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) and Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) sit at the center of the custom silicon boom. Hyperscalers don’t want to be entirely dependent on NVIDIA. They want chips designed specifically for their workloads, and these two companies are the architects helping them build it. Broadcom does it for Google. Marvell does it for Amazon Web Services.

The business models rhyme, but the scale doesn’t. Broadcom’s AI revenue alone hit $8.4 billion in a single quarter, while Marvell’s total Q3 FY2026 revenue came in at $2.07 billion. Broadcom’s AI segment is four times the size of everything Marvell sells combined.

Marvell’s Rocky Road Cramer laid out the story plainly. Marvell fell more than 50% in less than three months, largely thanks to a softer than expected quarter last March. That’s a gut-punch for any shareholder. But the company spent the rest of the year rebuilding, posting a series of strong quarters and peaking at $102 in early December before reports emerged that it might lose some Amazon business.

The recent numbers suggest the Amazon fears were overblown. Data center revenue grew 38% year-over-year to $1.52 billion in Q3, representing 73% of total revenue. CEO Matt Murphy didn’t hedge his language either:

“Our data center revenue growth forecast for next year is now higher than prior expectations.”

That’s not a company losing its anchor customer.

The Valuation Picture Here’s where it gets interesting for investors weighing the two. Broadcom trades at roughly 69x trailing earnings with a forward PE around 32x, with analysts targeting $467. Marvell looks cheaper at roughly 27x trailing earnings and 23x forward, with a consensus target of $118 against a current price of $89.57. Marvell also carries a beta of nearly 2.0, meaning it swings harder in both directions.

The gap between these two stocks since 2023 is real and large. Broadcom earned its premium through sheer scale and execution. Marvell’s data center momentum, custom silicon pipeline, and Amazon relationship will be key factors analysts watch to determine whether the performance gap between the two narrows going forward.

New York, New York--(Newsfile Corp. - March 7, 2026) - WHY: Rosen Law Firm, a global investor rights law firm, reminds purchasers of securities of Smart Digital Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: SDM) between May 5, 2025 and September 26, 2025 at 9:34 AM EST, both dates inclusive (the "Class Period"), of the important March 16, 2026 lead plaintiff deadline.

SO WHAT: If you purchased SDM securities during the Class Period you may be entitled to compensation without payment of any out of pocket fees or costs through a contingency fee arrangement.

WHAT TO DO NEXT: To join the SDM class action, go to https://rosenlegal.com/submit-form/?case_id=50638 or call Phillip Kim, Esq. toll-free at 866-767-3653 or email [email protected] for information on the class action. A class action lawsuit has already been filed. If you wish to serve as lead plaintiff, you must move the Court no later than March 16, 2026. A lead plaintiff is a representative party acting on behalf of other class members in directing the litigation.

WHY ROSEN LAW: We encourage investors to select qualified counsel with a track record of success in leadership roles. Often, firms issuing notices do not have comparable experience, resources, or any meaningful peer recognition. Many of these firms do not actually handle securities class actions, but are merely middlemen that refer clients or partner with law firms that actually litigate the cases. Be wise in selecting counsel. The Rosen Law Firm represents investors throughout the globe, concentrating its practice in securities class actions and shareholder derivative litigation. Rosen Law Firm has achieved, at that time, the largest ever securities class action settlement against a Chinese Company. Rosen Law Firm was Ranked No. 1 by ISS Securities Class Action Services for number of securities class action settlements in 2017. The firm has been ranked in the top 4 each year since 2013 and has recovered hundreds of millions of dollars for investors. In 2019 alone the firm secured over $438 million for investors. In 2020, founding partner Laurence Rosen was named by law360 as a Titan of Plaintiffs' Bar. Many of the firm's attorneys have been recognized by Lawdragon and Super Lawyers.

DETAILS OF THE CASE: According to the lawsuit, defendants throughout the Class Period made false and/or misleading statements and/or failed to disclose that: (1) Smart Digital was the subject of a market manipulation and fraudulent promotion scheme involving social-media based misinformation and impersonators posing as financial professionals; (2) insiders and/or affiliates used and/or intended to use offshore or nominee accounts to facilitate the coordinated dumping of shares during a price inflation campaign; (3) Smart Digital's public statements and risk disclosures omitted any mention of realized risk of fraudulent trading or market manipulation used to drive Smart Digital's stock price; (4) as a result, Smart Digital securities were at unique risk of a sustained suspension in trading by either or both of the SEC and NASDAQ; and (5) as a result of the foregoing, defendants' positive statements about Smart Digital's business, operations and prospects were materially misleading and/or lacked a reasonable basis. When the true details entered the market, the lawsuit claims that investors suffered damages.

To join the SDM class action, go to https://rosenlegal.com/submit-form/?case_id=50638 or call Phillip Kim, Esq. toll-free at 866-767-3653 or email [email protected] for information on the class action.

No Class Has Been Certified. Until a class is certified, you are not represented by counsel unless you retain one. You may select counsel of your choice. You may also remain an absent class member and do nothing at this point. An investor's ability to share in any potential future recovery is not dependent upon serving as lead plaintiff.

Follow us for updates on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-rosen-law-firm, on Twitter: https://twitter.com/rosen_firm or on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/rosenlawfirm/.

Attorney Advertising. Prior results do not guarantee a similar outcome.

-------------------------------

To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/286632

Source: The Rosen Law Firm PA

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New York, New York--(Newsfile Corp. - March 7, 2026) - WHY: Rosen Law Firm, a global investor rights law firm, reminds sellers of Endeavor Group Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: EDR) Class A common stock between January 15, 2025 and March 24, 2025, both dates inclusive (the "Class Period"), of the important March 18, 2026 lead plaintiff deadline.

SO WHAT: If you sold Endeavor Class A common stock during the Class Period you may be entitled to compensation without payment of any out of pocket fees or costs through a contingency fee arrangement.

WHAT TO DO NEXT: To join the Endeavor class action, go to https://rosenlegal.com/submit-form/?case_id=51048 or call Phillip Kim, Esq. toll-free at 866-767-3653 or email [email protected] for information on the class action. A class action lawsuit has already been filed. If you wish to serve as lead plaintiff, you must move the Court no later than March 18, 2026. A lead plaintiff is a representative party acting on behalf of other class members in directing the litigation.

WHY ROSEN LAW: We encourage investors to select qualified counsel with a track record of success in leadership roles. Often, firms issuing notices do not have comparable experience, resources, or any meaningful peer recognition. Many of these firms do not actually litigate securities class actions, but are merely middlemen that refer clients or partner with law firms that actually litigate the cases. Be wise in selecting counsel. The Rosen Law Firm represents investors throughout the globe, concentrating its practice in securities class actions and shareholder derivative litigation. Rosen Law Firm achieved the largest ever securities class action settlement against a Chinese Company at the time. Rosen Law Firm was Ranked No. 1 by ISS Securities Class Action Services for number of securities class action settlements in 2017. The firm has been ranked in the top 4 each year since 2013 and has recovered hundreds of millions of dollars for investors. In 2019 alone the firm secured over $438 million for investors. In 2020, founding partner Laurence Rosen was named by law360 as a Titan of Plaintiffs' Bar. Many of the firm's attorneys have been recognized by Lawdragon and Super Lawyers.

DETAILS OF THE CASE: The lawsuit seeks to recover damages on behalf of investors that were damaged as a result of allegedly false and misleading statements and omissions of material facts in the January 15, 2025 Information Statement (filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") pursuant to the securities laws) and subsequent amendment issued by defendants, and related filings with the SEC. Among other things, the complaint alleges the Information Statement and other solicitation materials misled investors regarding the true value of Endeavor's shares, failed to adequately disclose the earnings of Endeavor's executives under the terms of the Merger (a take-private merger), and failed to disclose conflicts of interests with Endeavor's special committee and financial advisor.

To join the Endeavor class action, go to https://rosenlegal.com/submit-form/?case_id=51048 call Phillip Kim, Esq. toll-free at 866-767-3653 or email [email protected] for information on the class action.

No Class Has Been Certified. Until a class is certified, you are not represented by counsel unless you retain one. You may select counsel of your choice. You may also remain an absent class member and do nothing at this point. An investor's ability to share in any potential future recovery is not dependent upon serving as lead plaintiff.

Follow us for updates on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-rosen-law-firm, on Twitter: https://twitter.com/rosen_firm or on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/rosenlawfirm/.

Attorney Advertising. Prior results do not guarantee a similar outcome.

-------------------------------

To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/286648

Source: The Rosen Law Firm PA

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New York, New York--(Newsfile Corp. - March 7, 2026) - WHY: Rosen Law Firm, a global investor rights law firm, reminds purchasers of securities of REGENXBIO, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGNX) between February 9, 2022 and January 27, 2026, inclusive (the "Class Period"), of the important April 14, 2026 lead plaintiff deadline.

SO WHAT: If you purchased REGENXBIO securities during the Class Period you may be entitled to compensation without payment of any out of pocket fees or costs through a contingency fee arrangement.

WHAT TO DO NEXT: To join the REGENXBIO class action, go to https://rosenlegal.com/submit-form/?case_id=53421 or call Phillip Kim, Esq. toll-free at 866-767-3653 or email [email protected] for information on the class action. A class action lawsuit has already been filed. If you wish to serve as lead plaintiff, you must move the Court no later than April 14, 2026. A lead plaintiff is a representative party acting on behalf of other class members in directing the litigation.

WHY ROSEN LAW: We encourage investors to select qualified counsel with a track record of success in leadership roles. Often, firms issuing notices do not have comparable experience, resources, or any meaningful peer recognition. Many of these firms do not actually handle securities class actions, but are merely middlemen that refer clients or partner with law firms that actually litigate the cases. Be wise in selecting counsel. The Rosen Law Firm represents investors throughout the globe, concentrating its practice in securities class actions and shareholder derivative litigation. Rosen Law Firm has achieved, at that time, the largest ever securities class action settlement against a Chinese Company. Rosen Law Firm was Ranked No. 1 by ISS Securities Class Action Services for number of securities class action settlements in 2017. The firm has been ranked in the top 4 each year since 2013 and has recovered hundreds of millions of dollars for investors. In 2019 alone the firm secured over $438 million for investors. In 2020, founding partner Laurence Rosen was named by law360 as a Titan of Plaintiffs' Bar. Many of the firm's attorneys have been recognized by Lawdragon and Super Lawyers.

DETAILS OF THE CASE: According to the lawsuit, defendants provided investors with material information concerning REGENXBIO's plan to develop and commercialize its product candidate RGX-111, a one-time gene therapy for the treatment of severe Mucopolysaccharidosis Type I, also known as Hurler syndrome. Defendants' statements included, among other things, REGENXBIO's positive assertions of RGX-111's future trial success based on continuing positive biomarker and safety data from the ongoing PhaseI/II study. Defendants provided these overwhelmingly positive statements to investors while, at the same time, disseminating false and misleading statements and/or concealing material adverse facts concerning the efficacy and safety of its RGX-111 trial study. When the true details entered the market, the lawsuit claims that investors suffered damages.

To join the REGENXBIO class action, go to https://rosenlegal.com/submit-form/?case_id=53421 or call Phillip Kim, Esq. toll-free at 866-767-3653 or email [email protected] for information on the class action.

No Class Has Been Certified. Until a class is certified, you are not represented by counsel unless you retain one. You may select counsel of your choice. You may also remain an absent class member and do nothing at this point. An investor's ability to share in any potential future recovery is not dependent upon serving as lead plaintiff.

Follow us for updates on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-rosen-law-firm, on Twitter: https://twitter.com/rosen_firm or on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/rosenlawfirm/.

Attorney Advertising. Prior results do not guarantee a similar outcome.

-------------------------------

To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/286564

Source: The Rosen Law Firm PA

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The shift comes as stablecoins surge in popularity and competitors like Stripe and PayPal add stablecoin options, increasing market pressure. Mar 7, 2026, 5:24 p.m.

Block CEO Jack Dorsey says his company will support stablecoins, despite having long argued that Bitcoin should serve as the internet’s native money protocol.

In an interview with WIRED, Dorsey acknowledged the change while making clear it reflects customer demand rather than a shift in personal belief.

“I don’t like that we’re going to support stablecoins but our customers want to use them,” he said. “I don’t think it’s wise to go from one gatekeeper to another.”

The move marks a pragmatic turn for one of Silicon Valley’s most vocal Bitcoin advocates. For years, Dorsey framed Block’s crypto strategy around Bitcoin alone, backing mining hardware development and integrating the asset into products such as Cash App.

The company first introduced the option for users to buy and sell bitcoin on the Cash App, and the company received a BitLicense from New York regulators the following year.

Block started a Bitcoin development arm and funded Bitcoin and Lightning Network developers in 2019, and started accumulating bitcoin for its corporate treasury in 2020. It currently holds 8,888.3 BTC, worth more than $600 million.

Stablecoins have surged in the meantime. Fiat currency-pegged tokens now circulate widely across crypto markets and cross-border payments, with their total market capitalization reaching $318 billion, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Competition is also intensifying. Payment companies, including Stripe and PayPal, have already integrated stablecoin infrastructure, increasing pressure on Block to offer similar options to avoid losing users, though Dorsey didn’t mention these during the interview.

This isn't the first time Dorsey's Block has reluctantly endorsed stablecoins.

In November last year, Block’s Cash App announced it was adding support for stablecoins, making them “interoperable with a customer’s USD cash balance.” Stablecoin deposits, the firm said, would instantly be converted into U.S. dollars in users’ balances.

That development was notable as back in 2024, when Facebook was working on its since-scrapped Libra stablecoin and the Libra Association behind it, Dorsey said with a definitive “Hell no,” that he would not be joining the crypto payments scheme.

At the time, Dorsey notably said the project “was born out of a company’s intention, and it’s not consistent with what I personally believe and what I want our company to stand for.”

In true bitcoin purist fashion, he continues to argue that Bitcoin’s decentralized design makes it the best candidate for an open financial protocol.

The comments come after the company cut its workforce by roughly 40%, citing structural changes driven by artificial intelligence. While the layoffs sparked controversy over whether the company had overhired, Dorsey brushed off the question during the WIRED interview and doubled down on the AI angle.

“These [AI] tools are presenting a future that entirely changes how a company is structured,” Dorsey said in the interview, noting that the layoffs weren't about fixing the company's cost and revenue per employee, because his firm was "already ahead" of all of its competitors on those metrics.

“I don't know what the ultimate outcome is, but I do know it's going to have a dramatic effect,” Dorsey added.

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Kalshi, approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, was last valued at $11 billion, while Polymarket was valued at $9 billion.

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Kalshi and Polymarket are exploring fundraising rounds that could value each company at approximately $20 billion, doubling their valuations from late 2025. Kalshi, approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, was last valued at $11 billion, while Polymarket was valued at $9 billion.Both platforms are leading the prediction markets sector, with Kalshi's open interest at over $400 million and Polymarket's at $360 million, alongside notable weekly volume figures.

Ripple’s XRP has entered what analyst EGRAG Crypto calls its “face melting phase,” a period he argues will test conviction before any meaningful upside expansion.

According to his latest outlook, even a continuation along a projected downside path could present a generational accumulation opportunity rather than structural failure. The analyst insists that the core principle is that meaningful gains require enduring discomfort first.

Egrag has consistently framed XRP’s current price action as a macro reset within a broader long-term expansion. In an earlier commentary, he maintained that the bullish structure and wave count are intact, identifying $0.85 as a wave two capitulation zone.

Under EGRAG’s framework, wave three usually delivers the strongest advance. The analyst initially outlines expansion targets of $11 to $13, followed by $23 to $27 as a high-probability range, with $100 as a tail-risk outcome if liquidity conditions shift toward risk assets. EGRAG says 2026 is a volatility-driven year designed to shake out weak hands rather than invalidate the broader structure.

However, data from CoinMarketCap show that short-term price action remains fragile. XRP recently dropped 9.1% from $1.42 to $1.30 after a high volume breakdown below $1.36 support, with selling activity surging more than 170% above average during the capitulation phase.

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Moreover, a brief rebound toward $1.33 was swiftly rejected, confirming lower highs and reinforcing that $1.36 to $1.37 now acts as resistance. Traders are monitoring $1.30 as immediate support, with a decisive loss exposing $1.20 to $1.22. XRP trades at $1.37 at press time, down 2.14% over 24 hours, in step with Bitcoin’s move.

Meanwhile, PNC Bank’s partnership with Coinbase to expand digital asset access to millions of users has been cited as evidence of growing institutional integration, reinforcing XRP’s place in global payments and liquidity infrastructure.

Journalist

Posted: March 7, 2026

The memecoin market has seen its collective market capitalization drop by 48% over the past year, and 6.9% over the past month, according to CoinMarketCap. According to Glassnode, the memecoin sector has only gained by 2.2% over the past week, compared to the 4.6% DeFi and L2 sectors managed.

Among memecoins, PEPE’s weakness can be highlighted as an outlier. At the time of writing, the short-term and long-term charts were bearish, and the $0.00000336 local lows were under pressure once again.

The Open Interest was in decline as the prices bled to show speculators were not willing to bet on a price recovery. Combined with Bitcoin’s [BTC] fall below $70k, it would seem that the next few days could see further drawdown for PEPE holders.

A short squeeze can materialize in the coming weeks Just like Bitcoin, PEPE also has a large number of short liquidation levels overhead. The 90-day liquidation map showed that the cumulative short liquidation leverage was much higher than the long liquidation leverage.

In other words, a price move higher would liquidate a lot more short positions than a price move of similar magnitude would wipe out long liquidations. This could be an attractive prospect for counter-trend traders, but they shouldn’t be in a hurry.

Bitcoin has a chance of dropping to $65.3k in the coming days. Whether it can defend the $63k-$65k area, or will plummet to $60k and below, will decide which way PEPE likely goes.

Traders’ call to action – Wait

Source: PEPE/USDT on TradingView

PEPE has not been trading in a feasible area for swing traders. At press time, it was just below the long-term support at $0.00000342. The downtrend could see it fall to the $0.00000303 extension level to the south just as easily as it could bounce to the $0.00000379 local highs.

What is more likely? It is hard to tell because PEPE will likely closely follow Bitcoin trends. As things stand, BTC looks poised for more downside over the weekend.

Swing traders should remember the magnetic zones above $0.0000038 are a valid target. Memecoins tend to rally quickly before retracing the move, like the mid-February rally to $0.000005 that appeared to break the downtrend but didn’t.

Final Summary PEPE traders should expect more losses since Bitcoin has a bearish short-term bias. Traders should respect the capability of memecoins to blast higher even during times of market stress. Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion.

Published: Mar 07, 2026 at 18:04
Updated: Mar 07, 2026 at 18:11

Dogecoin's price has been moving sideways since its drop on February 5.

DOGE price long-term prediction: ranging The cryptocurrency continued to fall, reaching a low of $0.080, but bulls bought the dips. For the past three weeks, the price has been range-bound, remaining above the $0.088 support and below the moving average lines. Three times buyers attempted to push the price above the 21-day SMA but were repelled.

Today, the altcoin has fallen below the 21-day SMA support and reached a low of $0.090. The decline has stalled as the altcoin resumes its range-bound movement above the $0.088 support but below the moving average lines. DOGE is now at $0.090.

Technical indicators Resistance Levels $0.45 and $0.50

Support Levels – $0.30 and $0.25

Dogecoin indicator reading The price is stabilising below the horizontal moving averages. The 21-day SMA acts as a resistance line to the price bars, impeding upward movement. On the 4-hour chart, the moving average lines are horizontal, while the price moves both below and above them, indicating a sideways trend.

What is the next direction for Dogecoin? DOGE's price is consolidating near the bottom of its chart. The price is trading above the $0.080 support. In recent price action, the altcoin fell to a low of $0.079 but recovered.

On the 4-hour chart, the price has slipped below the moving average lines, continuing its sideways movement. The price movement has slowed due to Doji candlesticks.

Disclaimer. This analysis and forecast are the personal opinions of the author. The data provided is collected by the author and is not sponsored by any company or token developer. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell cryptocurrency and should not be viewed as an endorsement by Coinidol.com. Readers should do their research before investing in funds.

Bitcoin price dropped below the $70,000 level as tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher and digital assets lower. At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $67,757, down 0.44% in the last hour and 1.66% over 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap data. The decline comes as analysts flag technical risks, while Bitcoin ETFs recorded significant outflows during the same period.

Analysts Flag Bitcoin Price Risks as Middle East Tensions Drive Volatility Analysts now warn that the Bitcoin price could face deeper declines if key technical levels fail. Their outlook follows rising geopolitical tensions involving Iran and the United States.

According to analyst Captain Faibik on X, Bitcoin shows a bearish flag formation on the eight-hour timeframe. He explained that a confirmed breakdown could push the Bitcoin price toward a $55,000 target. 

The analyst advised the market to wait for a clear downside breakout before entering short positions. However, Ted Pillows offered a more cautious view of current price conditions. He noted that Bitcoin recently dropped below the $68,000 level during rising macroeconomic pressure. 

He noted that oil prices have surged amid heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Historically, higher inflation from energy price spikes tends to weaken risk-on assets such as cryptocurrencies. Because of this, Pillows said Bitcoin must reclaim the $70,000 level soon. 

Otherwise, the Bitcoin price could revisit the $65,000 to $66,000 support zone before a reversal attempt. The geopolitical pressure also intensified after reports that former U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to hit Iran “very hard.” As CoinGape reported, those comments have led to additional selling pressure.

Bitcoin ETFs Record Outflows  Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs experienced notable capital outflows, adding pressure to the market. As per SosoValue data, investors pulled $348.83 million from Bitcoin spot ETFs on March 6.

Source: SosoValue

Fidelity’s FBTC recorded the largest single-day withdrawal during that session. The fund posted $159 million in net outflows, bringing its cumulative historical net outflow to $153 million. Meanwhile, BlackRock sold $143.5 million worth of Bitcoin yesterday, adding pressure to the Bitcoin price. This led to scrutiny and market fear.

However, analyst Crypto Patel pointed to a broader context behind the transaction. He said BlackRock purchased $1.163 billion worth of Bitcoin during the previous ten trading days. That buying included 17,645 BTC. The data show the scale of institutional accumulation compared with sales.

Analyst on Rising Whale Activity On-chain data also shows major investors increasing activity during the current market uncertainty. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost reported growing whale participation in Bitcoin transfers.

According to Darkfost, Middle East tensions around the Strait of Hormuz intensified financial market uncertainty, affecting the Bitcoin price. Oil prices have risen more than 60% since the start of the year. That surge has increased global inflationary pressure and tempered expectations for monetary easing. Markets now estimate only a 4.4% probability of a Fed rate cut at the next meeting.

Earlier in the week, the total crypto market cap grew by roughly 11%, adding nearly $250 billion. However, the rally quickly reversed as liquidity left the market. Within days, approximately $175 billion disappeared from total market capitalization. Darkfost also tracked rising whale inflows to Binance during this volatile period. 

Source: Darkfost

Over several trading days, whale transactions accounted for more than 70% of total exchange inflows. Darkfost defined whales as transactions exceeding 100 BTC. Such activity suggests large holders actively adjusted exposure while volatility remained elevated.

Journalist

Posted: March 8, 2026

The crypto market is starting to price in the possibility of a ceasefire.

The Kobeissi Letter highlighted a key signal. U.S President Donald Trump recently posted on Truth Social that the U.S demands “unconditional surrender” from Iran, implying that any ceasefire could be delayed.

Looking at history, a similar statement by the President was followed six days later by an actual ceasefire. Based on this pattern, analysts are now speculating that a ceasefire could occur on 12 March this year.

Source: X

However, this isn’t just a theory. Market data seemed to support this trend too. 

Recently, the crypto market saw significant inflows while oil prices surged sharply. In fact, U.S. oil is on track for its largest weekly gains on record since 1982, climbing by +34.5% this week alone.

From an economic perspective, these rising oil prices add long-term inflationary pressure. Combined with mounting war-related expenses, the resulting fiscal strain could increase the urgency for a ceasefire.

So far, risk assets have acted as a hedge. The bigger question now is – If the ceasefire holds, will crypto lose that hedge status, or could it instead become the catalyst for the “much-needed” market momentum?

Ceasefire uncertainty tests crypto’s hedge status This week has been a textbook example of crypto volatility.

After nearly $150 billion flowed into the market during the first half of the week, inflows slowed down dramatically. We’re now set to close with only $50 billion, meaning 67% of the gains were wiped out in the second half.

The bigger story, however, lies in the macro context. Early inflows were largely driven by the Middle East conflict, which prompted investors to move capital into Bitcoin [BTC]. Notably, this reinforced its role as a hedge.

Source: TradingView (XAU/BTC)

Now, momentum has weakened, leaving investors to question whether BTC can maintain that status or not. Additionally, the XAU/BTC ratio was up 6% intraday, recovering 50% of the losses it faced earlier this week. 

From a rotational perspective, capital may be shifting away from crypto and back into legacy assets. This raises another key question – Was BTC’s breakout past $70k truly a reflection of its hedge appeal, or was it just another fakeout?

Given the volatility this week, the move feels more like speculation than real momentum. In this context, a ceasefire would be a clear bullish signal for the market, potentially reigniting confidence in crypto as a hedge.

Conversely, what happens if the ceasefire doesn’t hold and oil prices keep climbing? Capital could rotate further into gold, increasing the risk of crypto losing its status and making it harder for BTC to push past $70k.

Final Summary BTC’s breakout past $70k was driven by conflict-driven demand, but weak momentum has been threatening its hedge status. A successful ceasefire could stabilize markets, while a failed ceasefire and rising oil prices may push capital into legacy assets.

Headlines about Bitcoin ETF outflows often mix two things: Bitcoin's price move and actual share redemptions.

If BTC drops, ETF AUM drops in dollars even if nobody sells a single share. That mark-to-market drop gets read as money leaving, and it can look like an institutional exit when the wrapper's Bitcoin holdings and shares outstanding barely move.

To understand whether investors are actually leaving, you have to separate the USD thermometer from the BTC and share-count thermometer.

Two thermometers, two storiesStart with the USD thermometer. ETF assets-under-management (AUM) is a mark-to-market number. A 10% drop in BTC produces a 10% drop in AUM even with zero redemptions. Many dashboards put AUM and net flows side by side, but readers mentally treat both as money in or out. But AUM doesn't show investor behavior, just the asset price plus structure.

The BTC thermometer is closer to behavior. Total Bitcoin held by the complex, plus shares outstanding by fund, answers the real question: did the wrapper lose underlying exposure, or did the price do most of the work? Data from Glassnode puts the total US spot Bitcoin ETF balances at around 1.285 million BTC even after a long stretch of outflows, which is the sort of detail the dollar headlines tend to bury.

Graph showing the BTC-denominated balances of spot Bitcoin ETFs from Jan. 1 to Mar. 6, 2026 (Source: Glassnode)A simple example shows why the USD number misleads. If the complex holds 1.285 million BTC and BTC drops from $70,000 to $63,000, AUM falls from about $89.95 billion to about $70.95 billion.

That's a $19 billion drawdown with zero selling. The headlines would say that billions left, but the wrapper would remain unchanged in BTC terms.

So why do flow tables still feel violent in certain windows? Because a significant chunk of activity is tied to a trade that treats ETFs as a financing leg.

The trade that turns flows into plumbingIt's your run-of-the-mill cash-and-carry trade, or the basis trade.

The idea is straightforward: hold spot exposure and short futures, collecting the futures premium when it exists. When the premium is wide, the trade throws off yield-like returns. But when the premium compresses, the trade stops paying, and desks unwind it. It's attractive when spreads are wide, but that appeal fades quickly as the spread tightens.

For many institutions, the cleanest and easiest way to gain exposure to Bitcoin is through ETFs.

When the trade grows, it shows up as steady ETF demand. When the trade shrinks, it shows up as ETF selling or redemptions. The motivation behind the trade is just spreadsheet math and is rarely a result of a change in sentiment.

You can see the hedge leg in the data that has nothing to do with ETF narratives.

In the CFTC's CME Bitcoin futures positioning, leveraged funds often sit heavily net short, consistent with a hedge against spot exposure held elsewhere. A Jan. 6 report showed leveraged funds held 2,554 long contracts versus 14,294 short contracts in the CME “BITCOIN” futures contract. While that doesn't prove every short is a basis book, it shows how large the hedge constituency can be.

When basis compresses, the unwind starts to matter more than daily flows. One market note in February tied near-neutral futures premium conditions to weaker incentives for basis trades that rely on futures premia to generate carry. CF Benchmarks has also reported on the CME basis behavior, linking it to market structure and positioning rather than pure story-driven sentiment.

Now connect that back to the two thermometers. During a basis unwind, you can get a week where USD AUM drops hard, and dollar flow headlines look catastrophic, while BTC holdings and shares outstanding move less.

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It's the price that does most of the damage in dollar terms. At the same time, desks trim trades, which can create real redemptions in some products and plain secondary-market selling in others. Both can happen at the same time; the point is just that the driver can be structural rather than emotional.

ETFs further amplify the confusion because their creation/redemption mechanism is designed to keep the ETF price close to NAV. Authorized participants create or redeem shares in large blocks, swapping shares for the underlying basket or cash depending on the structure.

Crypto ETP plumbing has also been shifting toward a more commodity-ETF-like model. The SEC has allowed in-kind creations and redemptions for crypto ETFs, which can make the path between redeemed shares and Bitcoin moves more direct. That matters most during trade unwinds, when the exit route gets cleaner.

So how should readers interpret the next flow print?

Treat USD outflows as noise unless you pair them with the BTC and shares numbers. The dollar figure is a mix of mark-to-market and structure. The BTC holdings and shares outstanding are closer to whether the wrapper actually shrank.

A quick decoding framework helps:

Directional exits: BTC held by the complex trends down, and shares outstanding decline across the major products. That's investors leaving the wrapper.Rotation: flows shift between issuers. Aggregate BTC held stays flatter while the plumbing moves underneath.Carry unwind: basis compresses, hedge positioning shifts, and ETF prints show stress that maps to spread math and balance sheet limits more than sentiment.The real hinge for the next market phase isn't whether tomorrow's flows are deeply red, but whether the basis stabilizes at a level that makes carry viable again, or keeps sliding toward zero. The trade's appeal fades when spreads tighten, and other yields compete for capital.

That's a much better way to say what the viral headlines can't. Some of what looks like an $80 billion “exodus” is a unit problem, and some of what looks like panic is just a trade closing. Watch the BTC and shares thermometer for behavior.

Watch basis and futures positioning for plumbing. The rest is mostly the dollar lens doing what it always does when Bitcoin moves.

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