Market Signal Briefing

In the three-year period from 2023 to the end of 2025, simply buying and holding an S&P 500 (^GSPC 1.33%) exchange-traded fund (ETF) was the simplest way to punch your ticket to epic stock market returns.

The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO 1.34%) -- which is the largest S&P 500 ETF, with $1.51 trillion in net assets -- produced a total return (including dividends) of 26.3% in 2023, 25% in 2024, and 17.8% in 2025. These gains are well above the long-term S&P 500 average annual total return of 9% to 10% per year.

The S&P 500 crushed value stocks and outperformed most sectors during that stretch, with the megacap growth stocks adding trillions in market cap and carrying the market to new heights. Nvidia alone added over $4.1 trillion in market cap during that three-year period.

But the opposite is happening in 2026. The flagship Vanguard S&P 500 ETF is currently down 0.2% year to date (YTD) at the time of this writing -- ranking 51 out of 65 Vanguard equity ETFs.

Here's why the Vanguard S&P 500 has gone from one of the investment management firm's top-performing funds to the bottom 22% and whether it's a buy now.

Image source: Getty Images.

The S&P 500's performance tells only part of the market's story The 14 Vanguard equity ETFs that are performing even worse than the Vanguard S&P 500 are growth-focused, large-cap, and sector ETFs, including those in technology, consumer discretionary, communications, and financials.

Meanwhile, mid caps, small caps, value stocks, international stocks, dividend stock ETFs, and value-focused sectors are outperforming the S&P 500. And all of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks -- Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Tesla -- are down more than the S&P 500 year to date.

Many of the most valuable U.S. companies are dragging the S&P 500. But look outside those high-profile names, and there are plenty of stocks roaring higher.

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Strength in numbers Since the S&P 500 is market cap-weighted, there's virtually nothing stopping the index from becoming very top-heavy if the largest companies keep outperforming. The divide reached jarring levels last year. In November, I noted that the Magnificent Seven accounted for 35% of the S&P 500, and the top 20 stocks in the index accounted for half of the index.

The S&P 500 had become less representative of the broader market and more of a megacap growth stock index. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing, as tech is far more important to the U.S. economy than a few decades ago, when some of the largest U.S. stocks by market cap were industrials, consumer staples, and energy giants. But it does make the S&P 500 prone to higher volatility if key sectors like tech, communications, consumer discretionary, and financials sell off.

One of the best ways to uncover what's driving the index is to compare the S&P 500's performance to the S&P 500 equal-weight index. The S&P 500 equal-weight index ranks stocks equally, rather than by market cap. So Nvidia gets the same representation as a relatively small S&P 500 component like Clorox.

The S&P 500 equal-weight index is up 5.3% YTD, while the S&P 500 is down slightly. This means if you threw a dart at a board of each S&P 500 component, chances are that stock is up over 5% in barely more than two months -- a fantastic return. Additionally, over 310 S&P 500 components have positive YTD returns at the time of this writing, showcasing that the majority of the market is gaining.

Using ETFs to your advantage The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF is an extremely low-cost way to get exposure to the largest U.S. companies, but it presents concentration risk and isn't very diversified, given the low impact of most of its holdings. Components outside the top 100 make up 0.2% or less of the S&P 500.

The index is a great buy if you're looking for a simple plug-and-play way to get exposure to megacap stocks. But investors may be better off combining individual stocks with ETFs that better align with their investment objectives and risk tolerance. This is especially true because so many platforms offer commission-free trading, and even $100,000 invested in a low-cost fund like the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF incurs just $30 in annual fees.

In sum, don't assume that just because the S&P 500 is up or down that the majority of stocks are doing well. This year is a great example of that, as the individual stocks that are posting exceptional returns simply aren't collectively large enough to move the needle if all the Magnificent Seven members are down.

Before Nvidia (NVDA 2.94%) released the results for its 2026 fiscal fourth quarter last week, I thought the only way that the stock would rise in the report's wake was if management provided a stellar outlook. I was wrong, though. Nvidia provided both an outstanding report and a stellar outlook, and the stock still fell after earnings.

In previous articles, I did note that with the market in high anticipation, it could be challenging for Nvidia to meet its bar for satisfaction under any circumstances. There are nearly insurmountable fears about the future that are propelling negative investor sentiment, and there's little the company can do to quell those fears.

It creates a strange dynamic for investors. Nvidia stock looks cheap, trading at only 17 times one-year forward earnings. That looks like a bargain price for a company growing as fast as Nvidia is. But the market doesn't seem to be interested in pushing the stock higher.

Can Nvidia stock bounce back? And could it double your money by 2030?

Image source: Nvidia.

A nearly flawless performance By all accounts, Nvidia had a phenomenal fiscal fourth quarter. In the period, which ended Jan. 25, revenue increased 73% year over year, and earnings per share were $1.62, up from $0.89 last year and beating Wall Street's consensus estimate of $1.54. In its fiscal 2027 first quarter, management is guiding for revenue to increase 77% year over year, keeping up the momentum.

Even more, it sees a clear path forward. Demand for its wares remains strong, and it's launching new, more powerful products to generate higher engagement and sales.

On the fiscal Q4 earnings call, CFO Collette Kress said that Nvidia's data center business is now 13 times the size it was when ChatGPT first came out about three years ago, and while data center chip supply is constrained, the company believes that it has the ability to fulfill demand into 2027.

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The road to doubling your money In a typical situation, a business doubling its top line should lead to the stock price doubling too, with many caveats. Nvidia's price-to-sales ratio of 20 is actually fairly expensive. Keeping that ratio constant and theorizing that it manages a 50% compound annual sales growth rate over the next four years, Nvidia's revenues and its stock price would more than quadruple. That would bring its market cap to about $22 trillion. Even if its price-to-sales ratio slid to 10, it would hit $10 trillion, more than double today's market cap.

On an earnings basis, it's quite cheap, trading at only 36 times trailing earnings. If it keeps that ratio constant, and the bottom line grows at a compound annual rate of 25% over the next four years -- lower than its fourth-quarter increase of 34% -- net income would reach $292 billion in four years -- well more than double its 2026 total of $120 billion.

All this is just an exercise to see if it's reasonably and mathematically possible for Nvidia to double your money by 2030. I can't guess what the likelihood is that it will, especially considering the state of the market's sentiment recently -- but it certainly looks like a possibility.

You don't have to hunt for speculative growth stocks to outperform the S&P 500 index. Looking within the famed benchmark can lead you to plenty of winners that have solid long-term fundamentals.

Alphabet (GOOG 0.87%) (GOOGL 0.75%) may be one of the smartest growth stocks to buy with $3,000. The company is gaining market share in key industries and has high profits and a strong balance sheet that support expansion into new opportunities.

Image source: Getty Images.

Alphabet's opportunities translate to greater profits... Alphabet is one of many companies investing significant capital and resources in artificial intelligence (AI). Its self-driving Waymo vehicles demonstrate the high potential AI has, but these investments require significant upfront capital before they generate meaningful profits.

This barrier to entry gives Alphabet an incredible advantage since the company has immense profits. For instance, the company reported $132 billion in net income throughout 2025. That figure was up by more than 30% year over year.

The elevated net income is also supported by rising revenue, which was up by 15% year over year throughout 2025. That growth rate accelerated to 18% year over year in Q4 2025.

Alphabet also has $126.8 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and securities. That cash is part of the $206 billion in total current assets.

...as these opportunities expand across high-growth areas Waymo has the potential to contribute significantly to future revenue growth rates and rising profitability. Alphabet's Gemini AI model can also generate substantial profits in the long run through its subscription model. Gemini already has more than 750 million monthly active users, making it an important part of Alphabet's future.

The company is willing to play the long game. For instance, Google Cloud reported its first profitable quarter 15 years after its 2008 launch. Now it's a key revenue growth engine that delivers impressive profits.

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Google Cloud revenue surged by 48% year over year in Q4 as more enterprise AI customers used the platform. The company's cloud computing segment closed the quarter with $5.3 billion in net operating income, more than doubling its total from last year.

There's also Google search, which continues to generate the bulk of Alphabet's total revenue and profits. Google Services revenue increased by 14% year over year to $95.9 billion in Q4.

Some companies are mature and produce reliable financials but have limited growth opportunities. Other companies are in start-up mode, generating high growth rates but continuing to burn through cash.

Those common extremes make Alphabet a rare breed. It's tapping into high-growth opportunities now while delivering substantial profits for investors. To top it all off, Alphabet trades at a reasonable P/E ratio of 29. That ratio is fair due to Alphabet's high revenue and net income growth rates.

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The global landscape is experiencing a significant increase in geopolitical instability, which is acting as a powerful catalyst for the defense industry. More than just a cyclical rise in spending, this moment marks a crucial inflection point. A new defense doctrine is emerging, one where victory is determined not by mass, but by information superiority, precision, and autonomous action. For investors, this signals a durable, long-term trend in which the most compelling growth stories belong to companies enabling a smarter, data-centric approach to national security.

Get Northrop Grumman alerts:

Why This Time Is Different for Defense Spending Defense budgets globally are being reshaped to address the realities of 21st-century conflict. The focus is rapidly moving toward technologies that provide a decisive intelligence and operational edge. This includes funding for artificial intelligence (AI) to process data at machine speed, unmanned systems that can be deployed with greater agility, and resilient communication networks and platforms that connect everything. This is different from what has been seen previously in the sector; it is a structural reallocation of capital toward the technology of modern warfare, creating a sustained tailwind for the companies at its forefront.

Palantir: Turning Battlefield Chaos Into Clarity In modern military operations, data is the most valuable ammunition, and Palantir Technologies NASDAQ: PLTR provides the system to aim it. The company has established itself as the central nervous system for intelligence, turning vast streams of battlefield information into actionable insights.

Palantir Technologies Today

PLTR

Palantir Technologies

$157.16 +4.49 (+2.94%)

As of 03/6/2026 04:00 PM Eastern

52-Week Range$66.12▼

$207.52P/E Ratio249.46

Price Target$192.68

Its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) acts as a command-and-control engine, fusing data from satellites, drones, and soldiers to create a single, real-time operational picture that gives commanders a decisive edge. In this environment, the ability to anticipate an adversary’s move seconds before it happens is the ultimate advantage.

The demand for this capability is surging. Palantir’s recent financial results featured a 70% year-over-year revenue increase in its last reported quarter, underscoring explosive growth.

While its deep roots within the U.S. Department of Defense provide a stable foundation of government revenue, its expanding commercial business is a key factor for investors. Growth in the private sector showcases the broad applicability of its technology and helps diversify its revenue streams, mitigating a sole reliance on government spending cycles. This dual-pronged strategy creates a more resilient business model, capable of capturing growth across the entire economy.

Key Investment Takeaway: Palantir offers investors direct exposure to the high-growth AI-in-defense theme, with a premium valuation that reflects its critical role and accelerating adoption curve. AeroVironment: The Unmanned Tip of the Spear AeroVironment NASDAQ: AVAV has solidified its position as the premier provider of small, unmanned systems that are proving indispensable in modern conflicts.

AeroVironment Today

$229.80 +9.24 (+4.19%)

As of 03/6/2026 04:00 PM Eastern

52-Week Range$102.25▼

$417.86Price Target$348.33

Its platforms deliver a level of precision and agility that larger, more expensive systems cannot match. The company’s flagship products, such as the Switchblade loitering munition, often called a kamikaze drone, provide a unique see-and-strike capability, enabling operators to identify and engage targets with incredible accuracy.

This is complemented by a robust portfolio of reconnaissance drones, including the Puma and Raven systems, which provide critical intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) without putting pilots at risk.

This strategic importance is reflected in the company’s powerful financial performance. In its second-quarter 2026 earnings report, AeroVironment posted revenue growth of over 150% year over year, a clear indicator of strong demand. In anticipation of future needs, the company has already announced plans for a domestic manufacturing expansion. This move signals that management is confident in a sustained, high-volume order pipeline from the U.S. military and its allies. The close watch on its major contract negotiations, such as the Space Force SCAR program, is a testament to the immense value the Pentagon places on its next-generation technology.

Key Investment Takeaway: As the go-to provider of combat-proven tactical drones, AeroVironment's growth is directly tied to the undeniable demand for unmanned systems, positioning it as a key beneficiary of this doctrinal shift. Northrop Grumman: The Backbone of Modern Warfare While Palantir provides intelligence and AeroVironment delivers tactical action, Northrop Grumman NYSE: NOC builds the advanced, resilient platforms that underpin the entire ecosystem.

Northrop Grumman Today

NOC

Northrop Grumman

$757.70 +17.69 (+2.39%)

As of 03/6/2026 03:58 PM Eastern

52-Week Range$450.13▼

$774.00Dividend Yield1.22%

P/E Ratio26.01

Price Target$693.60

The company is a leader in strategic programs built for the information age, most notably the B-21 Raider. This platform is not just a stealth bomber; it is a data-fusing, networked asset designed to operate and connect the battlespace in the most contested environments. Its role is to ensure that the data streams needed by systems like Palantir’s are always available.

For investors, Northrop Grumman’s financial strength provides a stable anchor. The company boasts a massive, growing backlog of approximately $95.7 billion, offering unparalleled long-term revenue visibility and insulating it from short-term market volatility.

Its leadership in the space domain, exemplified by the DARC program for deep-space surveillance, is critical for maintaining information superiority. This technological edge is complemented by a 22-year history of consecutive dividend increases, yielding around 1.22%. Trading at a reasonable price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of approximately 26, it offers a more traditional valuation compared to high-growth tech plays, signaling financial health and a commitment to shareholder returns.

Key Investment Takeaway: Northrop Grumman represents a stable, blue-chip investment that anchors this theme, offering exposure to the most advanced defense programs while providing the security of a massive backlog and a reliable dividend. A Modern Portfolio for a New Reality The rules of conflict have been rewritten by technology, and investment strategies must adapt to this new reality. The interconnected strengths of Palantir's AI-driven analysis, AeroVironment's tactical execution, and Northrop Grumman's foundational platforms create a powerful combined effect. These companies are not just responding to current events; they are actively building the future of defense. 

As the world continues to prioritize technological superiority, this new triad of data, drones, and advanced defense systems offers a compelling, forward-looking investment thesis. The shift to a technology-first defense posture is not a fleeting trend but a multi-decade transformation, placing these three companies at the forefront of a new and compelling investment cycle.

Should You Invest $1,000 in Northrop Grumman Right Now?Before you consider Northrop Grumman, you'll want to hear this.

MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Northrop Grumman wasn't on the list.

While Northrop Grumman currently has a Moderate Buy rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.

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Nuclear energy is entering a new growth cycle as rising power demand, expanding data centers, and renewed policy support bring the sector back into focus. After strong gains in recent years, the most impactful phase of nuclear investment may still be ahead. This report highlights seven nuclear energy stocks positioned across the value chain—combining near-term revenue with long-term upside as next-generation technologies scale. Click the link below to unlock the full list.

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REITs have struggled recently, but long term, they have outperformed. Returns are driven by cash flow and growth, as seen with Essential Properties Realty Trust. Today's low valuations may be the real opportunity.

Shares of transformational organ transplant company TransMedics Group (TMDX 7.69%) are up 104% over the last year as the company continues to become the clear leader in its niche. While it is easy for investors to feel like they missed their opportunity to buy a stock once it doubles, The Motley Fool's co-founder, David Gardner -- and his six traits of a Rule Breaker stock -- say the exact opposite is true. Strong past price appreciation is one of the traits that helps investors find the most promising growth stocks on the market, which I believe TransMedics will continue to be. Best yet for investors: This isn't the only Rule Breaker trait that TransMedics is home to.

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TransMedics: Revolutionizing the organ transplant industry TransMedics offers a turnkey, end-to-end offering for organ transplants through its Organ Care System (OCS) and its National OCS Program (NOP). Its OCS is a next-gen array of solutions that "replicate many aspects of the organ's natural living and functioning environment outside of the human body," keeping the donated organs much healthier than traditional ice storage methods. Meanwhile, TransMedics' NOP helps streamline operations on the clinical side, while the company's logistics network of 22 aircraft and 18 hubs across the U.S. provides expedited transportation for organs. Powered by these new innovative solutions, TransMedics looks like a true Rule Breaker.

1. Top dog and first mover in an important, emerging industry TransMedics' leading-edge OCS makes it a first mover in its industry, where it holds roughly a 20% market share in U.S. transplants for livers, hearts, and lungs. While the organ donation industry isn't an "emerging" market per se, there is an immense opportunity for optimization. Only 20% of hearts, 24% of lungs, and 61% of livers donated in the U.S. get utilized.

As TransMedics' OCS and NOP steadily push these figures higher, the company is essentially turning the industry into an emerging one. Furthermore, donations after circulatory death -- which are typically vastly underutilized compared to donations after brain death -- have jumped sixfold since 2017, highlighting that the company's capabilities are fueling growth.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

2. Sustainable competitive advantage Powered by new generations of its OCS for livers, hearts, lungs, and possibly kidneys, TransMedics and its NOP network are hard for any single company to replicate. This vertical integration from research and development on new iterations of its products, all the way down to providing the logistics to use its products, makes the company's moat quite wide.

3. Strong past price appreciation Not only has TransMedics doubled over the last year, the stock is an eight-bagger since its 2019 initial public offering. While its share price will likely remain volatile thanks to the company's high sales growth rates -- 32% in its latest quarter -- TransMedics' stock has consistently reached new highs.

4. Good management and smart backing TransMedics is founder-led by its Chief Executive Officer, Dr. Waleed Hassanein, who has been working on organ donation products since the early 1990s while he was at Georgetown University. That said, Hassanein owns only 2% of the company's outstanding shares, so investors may not want to give too much weight to insider holdings. Furthermore, TransMedics has a very weak 3.2-star rating on Comparably, and only 44% of employees approve of the CEO, so these low culture scores are worth monitoring for prospective investors.

5. Strong consumer appeal TransMedics doesn't have a strong consumer brand appeal, but its products serve a greater good, making it hard to oppose the company's continued success. In addition to saving more lives than ever before by disrupting traditional ice storage donations, the company alleviates many headaches for its healthcare customers by streamlining the entire organ donation process.

6. "Overvalued" according to the financial media A simple web search will yield an array of negative opinions on TransMedics stock, most stemming from its "high" valuations. The company even faced a short report early in 2025, but it has since more than doubled its share price. Perhaps the strongest signal that the market thinks TransMedics' stock remains overvalued is the hefty 25% of its float that is held short. However, while the market views the premium on the company's stock as a reason to short it, Rule Breaker proponents argue that the company's leadership position and strong growth rates warrant it. This "expensive" valuation is a feature, not a bug.

Pricey but promising Trading at 56 times forward earnings, TransMedics is certainly more "expensive" than the broader market. However, this valuation only views things through a short-term lens. As TransMedics builds out its NOP in Italy, tests its next-gen OCS heart and lung programs, launches an OCS kidney clinical trial, and continues expanding internationally beyond the U.S. and Italy, it could easily outgrow this "overvalued" price tag.

Shares of Domino's Pizza (DPZ +1.42%) traded as high as $533 in 2024, but they currently sit around $405. This stock has been a phenomenal performer over the last 15 years. A $1,000 investment at the end of 2010 would be worth more than $25,000 today.

Should investors take advantage of the dip to start a position in the world's largest pizza company? Domino's business performance and valuation could make a return to $500 a real possibility in the next year or so.

Image source: Getty Images.

Consistent winning There's no shortage of options when you want to buy pizza, but Domino's is one of the most widespread brands in the fast food market. It has more than 22,100 stores in 90 countries, with a 23% share of the U.S. quick-service market.

There are many businesses where having too many stores can lead to cannibalization of sales, higher costs, and pressure on profitability. But Domino's has brilliantly used its large store footprint to put locations in proximity to as many people as possible, allowing it to dominate the market. Roughly half of Domino's U.S. market share was gained in the last 11 years, and it gained another point of market share in the U.S. last year, with same-store sales up 3%.

Management expects its momentum to continue. The company continues to open more stores, but it also should benefit from growth in carryout sales, more customers signing up for the rewards program (now over 37 million active users), and menu adjustments.

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The simple math to $500 Analysts expect earnings per share to reach $19.83 in 2026 and increase to $21.53 in 2027. The stock currently trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 20 -- below its 25.9 three-year average. If it returns to a forward P/E of 25 (where it was trading a year ago) on 2026 estimates, the stock price would hit $495.

If, at this time next year, the stock is trading at a 25 forward P/E on 2027 estimates, the stock would trade at $538. Keep in mind, analysts have been raising their estimates recently, so the company appears on track to meet or beat the current consensus estimate.

However, some headwinds could cause the company to miss earnings estimates. Management noted higher insurance costs for company-operated stores in 2025. It also expects higher food costs and lower supply chain productivity gains than in recent years.

These are minor problems that should be baked into earnings expectations. Overall, barring a recession, weaker consumer spending, or any other executional missteps by management that would cause the company to miss earnings estimates, the stock has a favorable chance of rebounding toward $500 over the next year.

Eldridge BBB-B CLO ETF offers an 8% yield, but recent price declines reflect tighter credit spreads and market volatility. CLOZ's income relies on elevated interest rates; falling rates in 2026 could pressure distributions and necessitate payout cuts. The portfolio is diversified, with 62.6% in CLO BBB tranches and significant exposure to high-tech, banking, and healthcare sectors.

The S&P 500 finished the week at its lowest close since mid-December. Over the past 20 days, the average percent change from the intraday low to the intraday high is 1.22%.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG 4.49%) has a lot of work to do to win back the hearts of the investment community. Shares have fallen 46% from their all-time high in June 2024 (as of March 4). Besides late 2025, they now trade at the same level as they did in October 2023. The market has lost its appetite for this restaurant stock.

Contrarian investors are ready to take action. Could investing $1,000 in Chipotle make you richer?

Image source: The Motley Fool.

The K-shaped economy is taking its toll Based on ongoing U.S. GDP growth, we're not in a situation that warrants preparing for a recession. However, there is definitely a notable portion of the population that is feeling the pressure. After all, consumer confidence in the U.S. recently hit a 12-year low.

We're in what looks like a K-shaped economy. Affluent consumers are generally doing well, but might still be discerning with their spending. At the same time, low-income households struggle with higher costs across the board.

This unfavorable setup is finally starting to take its toll on Chipotle's financials. The company reported same-store sales growth of 7.9% in 2023 and 7.4% in 2024. But this key performance metric declined 1.7% last year, as foot traffic fell.

Investors aren't used to seeing the popular Tex-Mex chain struggle like this. It's worth mentioning that the retail sector overall is experiencing something similar.

Chipotle five years from now The best investors are able to consider a business' past performance while keeping their attention on how things will look in the future. It's not hard to be optimistic about Chipotle five years from now, for example, which is what really matters for long-term market participants.

This company isn't a fad. It has the scale and brand recognition that makes it a leader in the extremely competitive restaurant industry. That supports its durability.

What's more, there is significant growth potential going forward. Despite weaker financial results lately, Chipotle opened 334 net new company-owned restaurants in 2025. It plans to add 350 to 370 in 2026. And the management team still firmly believes that the total opportunity in the U.S. and Canada is 7,000 stores, much higher than the current total of 4,042.

A larger base of restaurants lays the foundation for rising profits. And that can provide a fundamental tailwind for investors.

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Managing expectations is important It's been a while since Chipotle shares have gone on sale. Now is the time for investors to consider buying, as the price-to-earnings ratio of 32.1 is close to a 10-year low. This business is deserving of a $1,000 allocation.

But even if the stock doubles in five years, a wonderful outcome, Chipotle isn't going to make you rich.

Neil Patel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: short March 2026 $42.50 calls on Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

After months of uncertainty, Netflix (NFLX 0.10%) investors got the news they've been waiting for. Late last week, the company walked away from a potential bidding war with Paramount Skydance (PSKY +2.17%). The two media companies were locked in a fierce battle to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD 0.21%). While Netflix only wanted the streaming and studio assets, Paramount wanted the company lock, stock, and barrel -- including its legacy television and cable assets.

Netflix walked away from the deal, refusing to increase its bid for Warner Bros. Since then, headlines have trumpeted how Paramount "won" the deal. I wouldn't be so quick to call it a win.

Image source: Netflix.

Price is what you pay, value is what you get Paramount paid a high price to convince the Warner Bros. board to accept the deal. After initially offering $30 per share, Paramount increased its bid to $31. In all, the cost of the acquisition stands at roughly $110 billion, in addition to the $2.8 billion breakup fee Paramount paid to Netflix on Warner Bros.' behalf.

Beyond the price tag of the deal, which some believe may have been too high, the combined Paramount/Warner Bros. company will be saddled with $79 billion in debt if the deal closes, in what is being called the "largest leveraged buyout in history." That's not necessarily a good thing.

Mergers and acquisitions are fraught with uncertainty and are uphill battles, even at the best of times. Eminent finance professor Aswath Damodaran is often quoted for saying that acquisitions are "the most value-destroying action a company can take."

For this merger to succeed, the company will have to thread a needle that very few have managed to do successfully, particularly given the size of the deal.

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Parmount expects cost-cutting to produce $6 billion in annual savings over three years, helping to offset the high price and crushing debt the company is taking on to finance the deal. To be clear, there aren't any guarantees that all will go according to plan.

In their book, The M&A Failure Trap: Why Most Mergers and Acquisitions Fail and How the Few Succeed, accounting professors Feng Gu and Baruch Lev approached the subject clinically. They analyzed 40,000 acquisitions between 1980 and 2022 and found that 70% to 75% of those combinations failed. Moreover, the failure rate was higher among larger deals and those that took on substantial debt to finance the acquisition.

Commenting on this specific deal, Gu was not optimistic. He cited the "humongous size of the proposed deal," saying it would be a "major challenge for [Paramount] to get value out of it." He went on to point out that while the "success of acquisition is uncertain, debt service is certain."

There's one major hurdle that remains. Paramount will need to receive regulatory approval not only from the U.S. but also from the European Union and the United Kingdom. While many assume Paramount will sail through the antitrust process, some state attorneys general are considering lining up to challenge the deal.

History is littered with examples of large tie-ups that failed, and while that may not be the case here, Paramount has its work cut out for it.

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$

99.08

On the other hand... It was clear that Netflix shareholders had concerns about the proposed acquisition of Warner Bros. assets from the beginning. From the time the deal was announced on Dec. 5, Netflix stock had fallen as much as 24%. However, since Paramount raised its bid and Netflix subsequently walked away from the deal, its stock has soared 30%, as investors breathed a sigh of relief that there would be no costly bidding war.

Since then, Netflix has been paid the $2.8 billion termination fee for the deal and is going about its business. The company has announced improvements to its Ads Suite adtech platform, giving marketers new ways to target audiences on its ad-supported tier. Netflix also acquired InterPositive, an artificial intelligence (AI) tech company that develops AI tools for filmmakers. Furthermore, the company's founder and CEO, actor, writer, and director Ben Affleck, will join Netflix as a senior advisor.

Even without the Warner Bros. acquisition, Netflix was firing on all cylinders. In the fourth quarter, revenue of $12 billion climbed 18% year over year, driving dilute earnings per share (EPS) of $0.56 up 30%. The company's forecast calls for revenue and EPS to each rise 15% in Q1. Management also noted that in 2025, Netflix "met or exceeded all of our financial objectives."

The Warner Bros. acquisition would have been nice to have, as it would have bolstered Netflix's content library and streaming business -- but it wasn't necessary. Walking away from a pricey deal kept Netflix from paying too much and assuming additional debt, thereby removing the boatload of uncertainty. With that as a backdrop, I would submit that Netflix was the real winner.

And at 31 times forward earnings, Netflix stock is still reasonably priced.

BEIJING — China's top diplomat Wang Yi underscored Sunday the benefits of interacting with the U.S., and signaled preparations are underway for a planned meeting between the two countries' leaders amid differences over the war in Iran and trade tariffs.

"The agenda of high-level exchanges is already on the table," Wang told reporters in Mandarin Chinese, according to an official translation. "What the two sides need to do now is make thorough preparations accordingly, create a suitable environment, manage the risks that do exist and remove unnecessary disruptions."

"Turning our backs on each other would only lead to mutual misperception and miscalculation," he said. "Sliding into conflict or confrontation would only drag the whole world down."

After an in-person meeting in South Korea in the fall, Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump indicated plans to visit each other's countries.

Trump is scheduled to visit China from March 31 to April 2, which would be the first trip to the country by a sitting U.S. president since 2017.

However, Beijing has yet to confirm the exact dates of a Trump visit. Wang did not elaborate either, but noted the U.S. and Chinese presidents' high-level interactions have "provided [an] important strategic safeguard for the China-U.S. relationship to improve and move forward."

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Some analysts have raised doubts over whether the trip will happen on schedule, especially since it would likely come shortly after joint U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran that killed its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the U.S. capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro.

Wang did not name either individual in his remarks to the press Sunday morning but reiterated Beijing's calls for a ceasefire in the Iran conflict.

"This is a war that should not have happened," he said. "It is a war that does no one any good."

Wang has held phone calls with at least seven foreign ministers — including those of Russia, Iran and Israel — since the joint U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran began on Feb. 28, according to official readouts.

He was speaking Sunday to reporters on the sidelines of China's eight-day annual parliamentary meeting that is set to wrap Thursday. China's top leaders, including President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Qiang and Vice Premier He Lifeng, are meeting in Beijing with delegates from across the country.

Tariffs in question

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The bilateral discussions come as the U.S. and China reached a fragile truce in October for lowering tariffs on each other's goods to below 50% for one year. The two countries had previously ratcheted up duties to well over 100% during the height of tensions last spring.

In response to a question about Trump's casting of U.S.-China relations as a new "G2" for leading the world, Wang pushed back against the idea that two countries alone would do so, instead emphasizing multipolarity.

Without naming the U.S., Wang warned against "erecting tariff barriers and pushing [for] economic and technological decoupling."

"This is no different from using kindling to put out a fire," he said. "You will only get burned."

Investors believe in Target's (TGT +0.36%) turnaround plan. That's the takeaway from the stock's near-7% gain following Tuesday's unveiling of said plan, anyway. Despite reporting a 13th consecutive decline in quarterly same-store sales that very same day, the retailer says an overhaul of its merchandise assortment and further investment in its in-store experience will finally start growing revenue again.

And maybe it will.

Target's new CEO, Michael Fiddelke, however, may not fully appreciate what's really standing in the retailer's way at this time.

Image source: Getty Images.

Turnaround ahead... maybe As Fiddelke explained of the turnaround plan, "By putting style, design and value at the center of every decision, we're making big changes to lead with a trend-forward assortment, elevate the guest experience, accelerate with technology and equip our teams to deliver the most delightful experience in retail, for today and over the long term."

Sounds great, right?

Except, perhaps not enough about this plan addresses the retailer's biggest challenge right now.

Today's Change

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0.43

Current Price

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120.79

Think about it. Even if it's not a term used nearly as much as it used to be, Target's "cheap chic" schtick still describes its distinctiveness from its competitors.

The only problem? Much of what's "cheap" (or cool, or exciting) at Target isn't exactly cheap enough for most consumers right now.

Part of the support for such a claim comes from the New York Federal Reserve, which recently reported that total household debt in the United States reached a record of $18.8 trillion as of the end of the fourth quarter, while delinquencies on all this consumer debt combined hit a nine-year high of 4.8% of these loans.

Separately but simultaneously, JD Power reports that a 12-month high of 72% of domestic consumers are considered "financially unhealthy," or vulnerable, with nearly that same proportion of consumers saying prices increased faster than their incomes did in January. In this vein, numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau indicate domestic retail sales fell nearly 1% from December's levels in the month of January, slumping more than anticipated.

Perhaps most problematic for Target's revitalization efforts, though, is that its most important demographics are being hit hardest by the so-called K-shaped economic recovery. While Bank of America reports America's higher-income households enjoyed a 3.7% year-over-year increase in after-tax wages in January, middle-income consumers' paycheck growth slowed from 2% during the latter half of 2025 to a pace of only 1.6% for the first month of the year. Although not quite as necessary, to the extent Target needs lower-income consumers to step foot in its stores, their household incomes only improved 0.9% in January, failing to keep up with the annualized inflation rate of 2.4% for the same month.

Not yet, and probably not for a while Nothing lasts forever, of course. Target will undoubtedly start reporting meaningful sales growth again at some point, just as the economy will begin growing in a way that measurably benefits workers and consumers of all demographics.

Target's unique value proposition, however, has always hinged on middle-income consumers feeling like they had a little bit of discretionary disposable income with which to splurge. It doesn't seem possible they could feel that way at this time, or at any point in the near future.

That's not to suggest the retailer doesn't have the right idea. Given that it's offering the value that most consumers want (and even need), however, rival Walmart (WMT +0.45%) remains the top investment prospect in a space where there's really only room and reason for one leader right now.

March 2026 is giving long-term investors something rare: legitimate market and company pullbacks despite some accelerating fundamentals. That suggests opportunities to grab onto.

These four companies aren't speculative bets. Each one generates real revenue, grows at double-digit rates, and dominates a market that is part of everyday life and not going away. Let's find out why they might be good investments in March.

Image source: Getty Images.

1. Axon Enterprise Axon (AXON +0.64%) makes TASERs, body cameras, multiple other law enforcement-related products, and the software that ties them together. But describing it that way misses the transformation. Axon has become an artificial intelligence (AI)-powered public safety platform.

Fourth-quarter 2025 revenue hit $797 million, up 39% year over year. Full-year revenue reached $2.8 billion, marking the fourth consecutive year of growth above 30%. Annual recurring revenue surpassed $1.3 billion, growing 35%. Total future contracted bookings stood at $14.4 billion, up 43%.​

Today's Change

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0.64

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3.64

Current Price

$

574.13

The company just set a 2028 target of $6 billion in annual revenue with 28% adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margins. That's more than doubling the business in three years. The roadmap includes Axon 911 (built on acquisitions of Prepared and Carbyne), Axon Vehicle Intelligence, and Axon Assistant -- an AI tool that automates police report writing.

The valuation is rich, but the execution is richer. This is a long-term hold.

2. Vertiv If you operate data centers running AI models, you very likely also need power and cooling to keep them running. Vertiv (VRT 3.13%) supplies both to data centers worldwide, and the demand curve is vertical.

Full-year 2025 revenue reached $10.2 billion, up 28% year over year. Adjusted operating margins expanded to 20.4%. Organic orders surged 81%, and the company exited 2025 with a backlog of $15.0 billion -- more than a full year of revenue. Adjusted free cash flow hit $1.89 billion, up 66%. Q4 earnings jumped 37% to $1.36 per share.

In late February 2026, Vertiv launched its OneCore integrated modular solutions and a Digital Twin platform designed for high-density AI data centers, backed by a partnership with Hut 8. The company also raised $2.1 billion through bond offerings to fund expansion. Management targets 22% to 24% operating margins over the medium term.

The AI infrastructure build-out isn't slowing down, and Vertiv is one of the few companies that physically can't be replaced by software. The stock's metrics look good too, for a safe, long-term hold.

3. TransMedics Group TransMedics Group (TMDX 7.47%) operates the Organ Care System (OCS), a technology that keeps donor organs warm and functioning during transport -- replacing the decades-old method of putting them on ice in a cooler. The company also runs its own aviation fleet for organ transport through its National OCS Program.​

Full-year 2025 revenue hit $605.5 million, up 37%. OCS Liver now accounts for 36% of all U.S. liver transplant procedures. The company performed 5,139 U.S. OCS transplants in 2025, up from 3,735 in 2024. It manages the logistics of this with its fleet of 22 aircraft.

Today's Change

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-10.46

Current Price

$

129.61

Operating profit reached $21.3 million in Q4, representing 13.2% of revenue. Net income for the year was $190.3 million. TransMedics guided for 2026 revenue of $727 million to $757 million, representing 20% to 25% growth. The company holds FDA approvals for heart and lung trials and is expanding into Italy and other European markets.

This is a company building a monopoly in organ logistics -- a market with zero viable competitors and a moral imperative driving adoption.

4. Fair Isaac Fair Isaac (FICO +0.06%) is the credit score company of all credit score companies. I hear its name in commercials, on the radio, and coming out of every salesman's mouth. The vast majority of mortgage, auto loan, and credit card decisions in America are made with the help of a FICO score. It has pricing power that borders on the obscene.

Fiscal year 2025 revenue was $1.99 billion, up 15.9%. Net income hit $651.9 million with a 32.8% net profit margin. Q4 revenue was $512 million with a 45.7% operating margin. Earnings per share (EPS) have grown at an average annual rate of 22.2% over the past decade.

Today's Change

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0.91

Current Price

$

1476.00

The current catalyst is FICO Score 10T, a more predictive scoring model that incorporates trended credit data. I was a bit skeptical at first, but its adoption in the conforming mortgage market will drive incremental licensing revenue for years.

FICO also runs a growing software analytics business that expands its addressable market beyond credit scoring. The stock has pulled back around 25% year to date, creating a rare entry point for a near monopoly with expanding margins.

The company also announced a $1.5 billion stock buyback earlier this month. It's a strong buy with solid financials.

In the past year, shares of Palantir Technologies (PLTR +3.03%) have nearly doubled, and shares of Micron Technology (MU 6.68%) have more than quadrupled. But certain Wall Street analysts think these popular artificial intelligence stocks are wildly overvalued.

Brent Thill at Jefferies has set Palantir with a target price of $70 per share. That implies 55% downside from the current share price of $157. William Kerwin at Morningstar has set Micron with a target price of $225 per diluted share. That implies 40% downside from the current share price of $380. Here's what investors should know about Palantir and Micron.

Image source: Getty Images.

Palantir Technologies: 55% downside implied by Jefferies' target price Palantir develops analytics and artificial intelligence (AI) software that helps clients in the public and private sectors manage and make sense of complex data. Forrester Research has recognized the company as a leader in AI platforms and AI decisioning software, and the International Data Corporation (IDC) has ranked Palantir as a leader in decision intelligence software.

Palantir has differentiated itself with an ontology-based software architecture. In this case, an ontology is a decisioning framework that becomes increasingly effective as underlying machine learning models capture more data. Most analytics software products are built around reporting and visualization, which is less useful in driving operational efficiency.

Palantir reported impressive financial results in the fourth quarter. Revenue increased 70% to $1.4 billion, the tenth consecutive acceleration, and non-GAAP (non-generally accepted accounting principles) net income increased 79% to $0.25 per diluted share. The company also achieved a record Rule of 40 score of 127%, which is simply unprecedented across the software industry.

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3.03

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4.62

Current Price

$

157.29

Sanjit Singh at Morgan Stanley recently wrote, "It's hard to find a better fundamental story in software than Palantir." However, not even the most fundamentally sound company in the world is worth buying at any price. Palantir shares currently trade at 209 times adjusted earnings, a very rich valuation even for a company whose adjusted earnings are forecast to increase at 57% annually through 2027.

Here's the big picture: Palantir is growing at a rapid pace, and its unique software affords the company a competitive advantage. But the stock could fall sharply if Palantir fails to impress the market with future financial reports. I doubt shares will drop 55% in the next year in the absence of a significant catalyst, but investors should still keep positions in Palantir relatively small.

Micron Technology: 40% downside implied by Morningstar's target price Micron develops memory and storage solutions for personal computers, mobile devices, data center servers, and automotive systems. The company specializes in DRAM memory products, including high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and NAND flash memory products. Both types are important for artificial intelligence.

Micron is the third-largest supplier of DRAM and NAND memory, and it gained share in both categories over the past year, while industry leader Samsung lost share. However, those share gains were primarily driven by a supply shortage rather than a competitive moat. Memory chips have been commoditized, which means chips from different companies are basically interchangeable, according to William Kerwin at Morningstar.

Micron delivered strong first-quarter financial results. Revenue soared 56% to $13.6 billion, and non-GAAP net income increased 167% to $4.78 per diluted share. While impressive, the driving force behind those numbers was price increases made possible by the supply shortage. But the memory chip industry is cyclical, meaning the shortage will eventually become a supply glut, at which point prices are likely to crater.

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-26.51

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$

370.54

Micron currently trades at 33 times adjusted earnings, a seemingly cheap valuation for a company whose adjusted earnings more than doubled in the last quarter. But the market may afford the company a much lower multiple once memory chip demand has peaked. Indeed, Wall Street estimates that earnings will increase quickly through fiscal 2027, then fall sharply through fiscal 2029.

Here's the bottom line: Micron lacks a material economic moat despite its size, and the stock could fall sharply once the market has visibility beyond the memory chip supply shortage. I doubt shares will decline 40% in the next year, but investors should keep any positions in Micron relatively small.

He may no longer be Berkshire Hathaway's CEO and resident stock-picker. There's no denying, however, that Warren Buffett's fingerprints are still all over the conglomerate's current portfolio.

If you wanted to poach a pick or two from the Oracle of Omaha's selections, there's still time. In fact, here's a couple that you might want to consider buying first -- and one you arguably won't want to.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Buy: American Express Apple is still Berkshire's single-biggest stock holding. Through a combination of growth and attrition, though, credit card outfit American Express (AXP 2.05%) is now the organization's second-biggest trade at just over $47 billion.

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$

300.92

Anyone keeping tabs on this ticker likely knows it's peeled back nearly 20% from December's record high, largely on worries that economic malaise is dragging down consumer spending, and even crimping their ability to repay their loans. For perspective, the New York Federal Reserve reports U.S. household debt now stands at a record-breaking $18.8 trillion, with delinquencies on this debt at a near-decade high of 4.8%. It doesn't bode well for a lender like Amex.

American Express may be better shielded from this trouble than you might think, however. As it serves more than its fair share of affluent borrowers, it's holding up in the midst of this headwind. Indeed, Amex cardholders' luxury spending grew 15% year over year during the fourth quarter, nearly doubling the 8% growth it saw in total billed business. This stock's 20% pullback may be all the discount you're going to get.

Buy: Constellation Brands So far, the position that Berkshire Hathaway first established in beer maker Constellation Brands (STZ 0.46%) back in late 2024 hasn't paid off. Shares of the company behind Corona and Modelo are down since then. In fact, Gallup reports that the proportion of people living in the United States who regularly consume alcohol now stands at a multidecade low of 54%.

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Current Price

$

146.63

This stock's sustained weakness, however, ignores a couple of important details about the booze business in general, and about Constellation in particular.

Broadly speaking, although the decision to cut back on alcohol consumption is rooted in a combination of cost and health, this is a highly cyclical business. The demand that's subdued now will be rekindled again sooner or later, perhaps when consumers are feeling more financially confident again.

In the meantime, the company has been going through a self-imposed overhaul, like last year's decision to divest some of its lower-priced wine brands that are more distracting than beneficial. Incoming CEO Nicholas Fink should also provide some fresh perspective regarding the direction that Constellation Brands needs to take next.

Avoid: DaVita Not every pick that Buffett's been patient with is necessarily a great addition to your portfolio, however. Take kidney dialysis outfit DaVita (DVA +0.55%) as an example. When Berkshire Hathaway first bought into it back in 2011, business was good because demand was strong, and insurers were reasonable regarding reimbursement.

Much of that has changed for the worse in the meantime, though. Despite modest 5% year-over-year revenue growth through the first three quarters of fiscal 2025, net income is down 17%. It's a microcosm of the bigger-picture challenge the entire healthcare industry is facing these days.

This might convince you: After (mostly) leaving it alone for over a decade, Berkshire began steadily scaling out of this holding early last year. New CEO Greg Abel has already picked up where Buffett left off.

This combination of rising inflation risk and slowing hiring created a difficult backdrop for risk assets. Investors also reassessed the path of Federal Reserve policy, questioning whether the central bank will be willing to ease if energy prices push inflation higher.

Despite the pullback, the broader market trend remains constructive. The S&P 500 is still about 17% higher over the past year and sits roughly 3% below its record high, underscoring the strength of the longer-term uptrend.

Looking ahead, traders will focus on inflation data, Fed commentary, and several large earnings releases for direction.

Economic Releases & Notable Earnings Monday, Mar 9
Before the Open:
• BETA Technologies (BETA), est. -$0.52
• Korn/Ferry (KFY), est. $1.24

Economic Releases:
• No releases scheduled

After the Close:
• Casey’s General (CASY), est. $2.99
• Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), est. $0.59
• LifeMD (LFMD), est. -$0.06
• Repay Holdings (RPAY), est. $0.21
• Vail Resorts (MTN), est. $6.17
• Voyager Technologies (VOYG), est. -$0.37
• Yext (YEXT), est. $0.14

Tuesday, Mar 10
Before the Open:
• ABM Industries (ABM), est. $0.87
• BioNTech (BNTX), est. -$0.16
• Kohl’s (KSS), est. $0.86
• Legend Biotech (LEGN), est. $0.00
• Nio (NIO), est. -$0.04
• Stagwell (STGW), est. $0.27
• United Natural Foods (UNFI), est. $0.51

Economic Releases:
• 11:00 GMT – NFIB Small Business Index, forecast 99.8 (prior 99.3)
• 13:15 GMT – ADP Employment Change, prior 12.8K
• 15:00 GMT – Existing Home Sales, forecast 3.89M (prior 3.91M)
• 20:30 GMT – API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

After the Close:
• Oracle (ORCL), est. $1.71
• AeroVironment (AVAV), est. $0.68
• Custom Truck One Source (CTOS), est. $0.07
• Franco-Nevada (FNV), est. $1.67

Wednesday, Mar 11
Before the Open:
• Almonty Industries (ALM), est. $0.00
• Campbell Soup (CPB), est. $0.57
• Sprinklr (CXM), est. $0.10

Economic Releases:
• 12:30 GMT – Core CPI m/m, forecast 0.2% (prior 0.3%)
• 12:30 GMT – CPI m/m, forecast 0.3% (prior 0.2%)
• 12:30 GMT – CPI y/y, forecast 2.5% (prior 2.4%)
• 14:30 GMT – Crude Oil Inventories, prior 3.5M
• 17:01 GMT – 10-year Bond Auction
• 18:00 GMT – Federal Budget Balance, prior -94.6B

After the Close:
• Bumble (BMBL), est. $0.23
• Cadre Holdings (CDRE), est. $0.40
• Descartes (DSGX), est. $0.49
• Firefly Aerospace (FLY), est. -$0.68
• Guardian Pharmacy Services (GRDN), est. $0.27
• HighPeak Energy (HPK), est. -$0.04
• Netskope (NTSK), est. -$0.06
• Petco Health and Wellness (WOOF), est. $0.02
• Stitch Fix (SFIX), est. -$0.05
• UiPath (PATH), est. $0.26

Thursday, Mar 12
Before the Open:
• Alliance Laundry Systems (ALH), est. $0.23
• BRP (DOO), est. $1.46
• Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), est. $2.99
• Li Auto (LI), est. $0.21
• Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI), est. $1.39
• Sleep Number (SNBR), est. -$0.50
• TIC Solutions (TIC), est. $0.06

Economic Releases:
• 12:30 GMT – Unemployment Claims, forecast 216K (prior 213K)
• 12:30 GMT – Building Permits, forecast 1.41M (prior 1.45M)
• 12:30 GMT – Housing Starts, forecast 1.34M (prior 1.40M)
• 12:30 GMT – Trade Balance, forecast -66.1B (prior -70.3B)
• 14:30 GMT – Natural Gas Storage, prior -132B
• 17:01 GMT – 30-year Bond Auction

After the Close:
• Adobe (ADBE), est. $5.86
• EverCommerce (EVCM), est. $0.05
• Green Dot (GDOT), est. -$0.10
• KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC), est. $0.09
• Lennar (LEN), est. $0.95
• Mission Produce (AVO), est. $0.07
• PagerDuty (PD), est. $0.24
• Rubrik (RBRK), est. -$0.11
• SentinelOne (S), est. $0.06
• ServiceTitan (TTAN), est. $0.18

Friday, Mar 13
Before the Open:
• Buckle (BKE), est. $1.51

Economic Releases:
• 12:30 GMT – Core PCE Price Index m/m, forecast 0.4% (prior 0.4%)
• 12:30 GMT – Prelim GDP q/q, forecast 1.4% (prior 1.4%)
• 12:30 GMT – Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, forecast 0.4% (prior 1.0%)
• 12:30 GMT – Durable Goods Orders m/m, forecast 0.5% (prior -1.4%)
• 12:30 GMT – Prelim GDP Price Index q/q, forecast 3.6% (prior 3.6%)
• 12:30 GMT – Personal Income m/m, forecast 0.4% (prior 0.3%)
• 12:30 GMT – Personal Spending m/m, forecast 0.3% (prior 0.4%)
• 15:00 GMT – JOLTS Job Openings, forecast 6.84M (prior 6.54M)
• 15:00 GMT – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, forecast 55.9 (prior 56.6)
• 15:00 GMT – Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, prior 3.4%

After the Close:
• No reports scheduled.

Central Bank Activity Wednesday: Michelle Bowman (Federal Reserve Governor) – 12:30 GMT
Thursday: Michelle Bowman (Federal Reserve Governor) – 15:00 GMT

Markets will monitor Bowman’s remarks for signals on how policymakers are weighing the recent oil price spike against softer labor data. Any comments suggesting inflation concerns could delay rate cuts may influence Treasury yields and equity positioning.

Technical Outlook Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

At times, making crypto predictions on platforms such as Polymarket or Kalshi can feel a lot like sports betting. Instead of rooting for your hometown team to come away with the victory, you're rooting for your favorite altcoin to hit a certain price target.

But here's the thing: Treating crypto trading like sports betting could be the fastest way to lose money. If you're planning to build a long-term nest egg for retirement, there's a better way to use prediction markets to your advantage.

The wrong way to use prediction markets It's staggering how many different ways you can bet on Bitcoin (BTC 0.38%) these days. You can predict that it will hit a certain price target by a certain date. You can predict that a certain event will happen, such as an S&P 500 company deciding to add Bitcoin to its balance sheet. You can predict whether Bitcoin will outperform a certain asset class (such as gold) within a specific time frame.

Or, if you're feeling really daring, you could bet on all of them at the same time. In sports betting parlance, this would be called a "parlay" because multiple bets are involved at one time. And there's no quicker way to lose money than betting on multi-leg parlays.

Image source: Getty Images.

Where things get really dangerous is when traders start to let their emotions get the better of them. Just like sports gambling, it's easy to get caught up in the moment. When an altcoin has momentum -- either to the upside or the downside -- it's easy to assume that the momentum will continue.

But how many times have you watched a sporting event, only to see momentum turn on a single play? Real-time odds can change in a hurry.

There's another danger, too. In addition to making long-term predictions about the price of Bitcoin, it's also possible to make ultra-short-term predictions about the price of Bitcoin. As in: "What will be the price of Bitcoin in 5 minutes?" Good luck if you think you can consistently make money doing that. It's a bit like trying to guess the outcome of the next play in a football game.

The right way to use prediction markets A better approach is to use data contained within these prediction markets as yet another input in your long-term thinking. As New York Stock Exchange President Lynn Martin recently said at a crypto event, prediction markets can help to calculate the real-time statistical probability of any future event occurring. For that reason, prediction market data can be superior to data from polls or surveys.

But just be careful: Some data from prediction markets might not be as precise as commonly supposed. In a January 2026 research report, Galaxy Digital found that prediction markets tend to overstate consensus in the financial markets. It's often hard to collapse a full set of beliefs, convictions, and assumptions into a binary yes/no outcome.

Can you make money in prediction markets? Admittedly, making accurate predictions about any cryptocurrency can provide a real adrenaline rush, like investing in a hot altcoin that continues to soar in value, or placing a wild sports bet that happens to hit big.

And that's what has me worried. Recent Motley Fool research shows that sports bettors lose an average of $6 for every $100 bet. Will people lose a similar percentage of their money betting in prediction markets?

The XRP Ledger (XRPL) is aiming to establish itself as a heavyweight in decentralized finance (DeFi) with the XLS-66 proposal. 

The aforementioned proposal is supposed to bring native lending and borrowing capabilities directly to the ledger. 

If approved and activated, the amendment will allow users to generate returns on idle capital. This native lending protocol represents "the final DeFi frontier" for the network, according to XRPL validator and active community member Vet.

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The XLS-66 lending protocol, explained Introduced in XRPL version 3.1.0, the XLS-66d specification (officially titled "Lending Protocol") was co-authored by Ripple developers Vytautas Vito Tumas and Aanchal Malhotra.

The protocol introduces the primitives that are required for on-chain credit origination. According to the GitHub proposal, the system facilitates "straightforward on-chain uncollateralized fixed-term loans, utilizing pooled funds with pre-set terms for interest-accruing loans."

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It intentionally skips the rather sophisticated mechanisms of automated on-chain collateral and liquidation management. Instead, the protocol prioritizes flexibility, reusability, and regulatory compliance.

XRPL researcher Vet explained that lenders will not issue funds blindly. The system relies heavily on off-chain underwriting and risk management. "The lender wouldn't give you XRP in the first place without knowing who you are and doing some off-chain checks on you," Vet noted. The XRP Ledger is used purely for "settlement logic largely, ownership and audit trails."

The 80% validator hurdleThe native lending protocol is yet to go live. The amendment must secure an 80% supermajority approval from the network's trusted validators for any new feature to be activated. Moreover, this threshold is supposed to be maintained for two consecutive weeks. It is currently sitting at a 17.14% consensus, with only 6 validators voting "Yes" and 29 voting "No" or abstaining.

Tether announces a strategic investment in fintech innovator Axiym to integrate USDT into regulated treasury and settlement infrastructures. Tether, the largest stablecoin issuer in the world, announced a strategic investment in Axiym on 5 March 2026. This partnership focuses on embedding USDT directly into Axiym's distributed treasury and settlement infrastructure to enhance global financial access.

Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $568.45 million in net inflows for the week ending March 6 and were the second consecutive week of positive flows.

Summary

Bitcoin ETFs recorded $568.45M weekly inflows. A $1.15B buying wave from March 2–4 offset $576M in late-week outflows. Ethereum ETFs added $23.56M, but heavy redemptions erased most midweek gains. Three days of strong buying from March 2-4 totaling $1.15 billion offset outflows on March 5-6 that drained $576.66 million, leaving the week with net positive flows.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded below $67,000 after dropping 2% over 24 hours, while total net assets for Bitcoin ETFs reached $87.07 billion.

March 2-4 buying wave brings $1.15 billion before reversal March 2 and March 4 posted nearly identical inflows of $458.19 million and $461.77 million respectively, bracketing March 3’s $225.15 million in positive flows.

The three-day streak brought $1.15 billion into Bitcoin ETF products. March 5 recorded $227.83 million in outflows, followed by March 6’s larger $348.83 million in redemptions.

Bitcoin ETFs data: SoSo Value The two-day withdrawal period removed just under half of the prior three days’ gains but left the week with $568.45 million in net inflows.

Weekly trading volume reached $25.87 billion for the period ending March 6, up from $15.99 billion during the week ending February 27.

Total net assets climbed from $83.40 billion on February 27 to $87.07 billion on March 6.

Ethereum posts modest $23.56 million in weekly inflows Ethereum spot ETFs recorded $23.56 million in net inflows for the week ending March 6, down sharply from the prior week’s $80.46 million.

March 4 posted the strongest single-day performance at $169.41 million before two consecutive days of heavy outflows.

March 5 saw $90.94 million in redemptions, followed by March 6’s $82.85 million in outflows.

The two-day withdrawal period nearly wiped out March 4’s gains. March 2 added $38.69 million in inflows while March 3 posted a modest $10.75 million in outflows.

Total net assets for Ethereum products reached $11.28 billion with cumulative total net inflow at $11.63 billion. Ethereum price also traded below $1,900 after the 2% daily decline.

Bitcoin remains trapped in a weeks-long sideways grind, with no clean break above a key resistance level that has capped rallies since April of last year. The April low from last year continues to act as a ceiling. A test of that level triggered the current pullback, and the weakness has yet to resolve.

The weekly close looms

The question heading into the weekly close is simple: can buyers hold the line, or does this drift lower? Price is currently probing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $67,000, a level technicians have flagged as a potential floor for a short-term bounce. 

The broader setup through February had pointed to a possible rally first to overhead resistance, and then higher as part of a larger corrective wave structure. That thesis is still alive, but it’s under pressure.

Two paths, one decision point

If $67,000 fails to attract buyers, the next meaningful support sits in the $55,000 to $56,000 range, where a cluster of structural and Fibonacci levels converge. 

That scenario stays off the table as long as the range floor, roughly $61,400 to $62,600, holds intact. In the more constructive case, the current dip is a fourth-wave pullback within a five-wave advance, with one more high still to come. In the bearish case, the market is tracing out a fuller corrective structure that eventually tests the mid-$50,000s.

Cracks beginning to show

Weekend price action complicates the reading. The market has slipped below the lower boundary of its short-term channel, not a confirmed break, but a warning sign. The structure of the current pullback lacks the clean, three-wave characteristics that would signal a straightforward correction. Bulls still hold enough ground to make a case. But the margin for error is shrinking.

Trust with CoinPedia:CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017. All content is created by our expert panel of analysts and journalists, following strict Editorial Guidelines based on E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness). Every article is fact-checked against reputable sources to ensure accuracy, transparency, and reliability. Our review policy guarantees unbiased evaluations when recommending exchanges, platforms, or tools. We strive to provide timely updates about everything crypto & blockchain, right from startups to industry majors.

Investment Disclaimer:All opinions and insights shared represent the author's own views on current market conditions. Please do your own research before making investment decisions. Neither the writer nor the publication assumes responsibility for your financial choices.

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Ripple is quietly repositioning XRP from a cross-border payments token into the backbone of institutional decentralized finance, according to senior company executives. The shift marks one of the most important strategic pivots in the asset’s history and could fundamentally reshape how Wall Street interacts with crypto-native infrastructure.

Speaking at a recent industry event, Ripple’s Ross Edwards outlined an expanding vision for XRP that stretches well beyond its original use case of moving value across borders. While centralized exchange liquidity has historically driven XRP utility, Edwards said the company is now aggressively pushing that activity onto the XRP Ledger itself.

A lending protocol changes the calculus

The centerpiece of that push is a native lending protocol currently being launched on the XRPL. The protocol positions XRP as a source of collateral and borrowing power, opening the door to yield-generating activity that has long been the domain of Ethereum-based DeFi platforms.

“We see XRP as a huge source of capital to be lending and borrowing and using as collateral positions on chains,” Edwards said, describing a dual utility play where XRP benefits both directly and indirectly from growing on-chain activity.

Stablecoins are the missing piece

Perhaps the sharpest insight from Edwards concerns the role of stablecoins in making institutional DeFi actually work. Without them, he argued, the entire structure collapses. A bank holding tokenized real-world assets on chain has no practical way to realize cash value without a dollar-denominated stable counterpart. KYC, AML, and legacy rails make the traditional route redundant.

Ripple’s answer is RLUSD, its own stablecoin, which Edwards described as central to a new generation of tokenized asset markets, including 24/7 swap markets, on-chain distributions, and institutional lending.

The conversation has shifted, Edwards said. Two years ago, Ripple was convincing institutions to tokenize assets at all. Now it is negotiating the mechanics of how those assets generate yield, settle instantly, and operate around the clock.

For XRP holders, that is a materially different story than payments alone.

Trust with CoinPedia:CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017. All content is created by our expert panel of analysts and journalists, following strict Editorial Guidelines based on E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness). Every article is fact-checked against reputable sources to ensure accuracy, transparency, and reliability. Our review policy guarantees unbiased evaluations when recommending exchanges, platforms, or tools. We strive to provide timely updates about everything crypto & blockchain, right from startups to industry majors.

Investment Disclaimer:All opinions and insights shared represent the author's own views on current market conditions. Please do your own research before making investment decisions. Neither the writer nor the publication assumes responsibility for your financial choices.

Sponsored and Advertisements:Sponsored content and affiliate links may appear on our site. Advertisements are marked clearly, and our editorial content remains entirely independent from our ad partners.

The crypto market was highly volatile last week as the war in Iran continued and the US published weak jobs numbers. Bitcoin price soared to $74,000 and then pulled back to $66,000 as inflation concerns remained. This article explores some of the top crypto to watch this week, including Polkadot (DOT), Pi Network (PI), and Sei (SEI).

PI Network in focus ahead of Pi Day Pi Network has been one of the best-performing coins in the crypto industry this month as it surged to its highest level since December. It has jumped by over 80% from its lowest level this year, outperforming Bitcoin and most altcoins.

Pi Network will be in the spotlight this week because March 14th is Pi Day, a global day that commemorates the mathematical constant pi. It is marked that day because it coincides with the dates (3.14).

In most cases, this day is celebrated by mathematicians and often includes things like buying and eating pies. 

Pi Network has historically used this day to make some major announcements, which often impact the price. 

For example, the team released the outcome of a test involving OpenMind, a company it invested in last year. The test involved using its validators to provide computing power to the company. 

Pi released a deep-dive case study into the recent proof-of-concept project for a new Pi Node utility that supports decentralized AI training and computing tasks for third-parties using the spare computing capacity of over 421,000 Pi Nodes. In collaboration with OpenMind, a

In the future, more validators will be enrolled to the program and earn returns. The Pi Day also comes during the ongoing protocol upgrade to v23. A major upgrade is currently underway and will be completed on March 12. Also, there are rumors that the DEX and AMM feature will be launched later this week.

Polkadot tokenomics overhaul Polkadot, a top layer-1 network created by Gavin Wood, an Ethereum creator, will be one of the top cryptocurrencies to watch this week.

One reason it will be in the spotlight is that 21Shares launched TDOT on Friday. TDOT is the first Polkadot ETF in the United States and has over $11 million in assets. Therefore, traders will pay attention to the coin for any signs of demand from American investors.

The other key reason is that the developers will make a major tokenomics overhaul this week. This overhaul will introduce some major changes, including, reducing the maximum number of tokens in circulation to 2.1 billion.

Polkadot’s economic upgrade begins rolling out in 10 days. Enhanced tokenomics increases DOT scarcity and introduces new governance and staking mechanisms. ▸ DOT supply capped at 2.1B ▸ Emissions cut 53.6% ▸ Unbonding from 28 days to 24-48 hours More details ⤵️

Parity Technologies

@paritytech

On March 12, @Polkadot will start upgrading its economic architecture. Capped supply. A new on-chain allocation mechanism. More predictable issuance model. Sustainability baked into the protocol. Full details ↓ parity.io/blog/refining-…

The network will also reduce emissions by 53.6% and reduce the number of unbonding days from 28 to between 24 and 48 hours.

In a statement last week, the team said that the changes will introduce lower emissions, improve validator accountability, and have a governance-directed allocation.

Sei, Pump, Starknet, and ZebecSome of the other top coins to watch are those with token unlocks this week. A token unlock is a situation where new tokens are introduced to the market, a move that increases the number of tokens in circulation. In theory, token unlocks are usually bearish for cryptocurrencies.

Pump, which has a market capitalization of $664 million, will unlock 10 billion tokens worth over $18 million. Sei, a top layer-1 network, will unlock 121 million tokens worth $7.73 million, while Starknet will unlock 163 million coins worth $6.14 million. Zebec Network will unlock 1.04 billion tokens.

On top of all this, the crypto market will react to the ongoing war in Iran that has pushed energy prices higher globally. Hyperliquid data shows that crude oil prices have soared to $110 after some key countries like Kuwait announced production cuts.

The crypto market will also react to the upcoming US consumer inflation report on Wednesday this week.