Market Signal Briefing

February 16, 2026 07:30 ET  | Source: nCino, Inc.

WILMINGTON, N.C., Feb. 16, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- nCino, Inc. (NASDAQ: NCNO), the leading provider of intelligent, best-in-class banking solutions, will report financial results for its fourth quarter ended January 31, 2026, after the market close on Tuesday, March 31, 2026. nCino will host a conference call and webcast that day at 4:30 p.m. ET to discuss its financial results.

Event: nCino’s Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Results Conference Call
Date and Time: Tuesday, March 31, 2026 at 4:30 p.m. ET
Webcast Link: https://investor.ncino.com/
Replay: A webcast replay will be available on the Investor Relations section of nCino’s website following the call.

About nCino  
nCino (NASDAQ: NCNO) is powering a new era in financial services. The Company was founded to help financial institutions digitize and reengineer business processes to boost efficiencies and create better banking experiences. With over 2,700 customers worldwide - including community banks, credit unions, independent mortgage banks, and the largest financial entities globally - nCino offers a trusted platform of best-in-class, intelligent solutions. By integrating artificial intelligence and actionable insights into its platform, nCino is helping financial institutions consolidate legacy systems to enhance strategic decision-making, improve risk management, and elevate customer satisfaction by cohesively bringing together people, AI and data. For more information, visit www.ncino.com.  

Headline CPI may have you believe things are steady, but inflation across essential categories remains hot. Tobacco products and utilities are examples of sectors where YoY rise in prices is 2.5 times higher than CPI. We discuss our top picks from these essential sectors, with yields of up to 6.3%.

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Willy Woo says quantum computing fears broke Bitcoin’s 12-year gold outperformance trend.Markets may be pricing risk from reactivated “lost” BTC amid future quantum threats.Charles Edwards says quantum fears may have contributed to recent Bitcoin price weakness.Quantum computing risks are weighing on Bitcoin’s (BTC) relative valuation against gold, according to analyst Willy Woo.

The development of quantum computing has spread concerns across the tech and financial sectors, as future breakthroughs could potentially undermine current encryption standards. Although such capabilities are not considered imminent, the long-term threat has raised questions about Bitcoin’s security model and how markets price that uncertainty.

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Has Quantum Computing Entered the Bitcoin Valuation Equation? Woo argued that Bitcoin’s 12-year outperformance relative to gold has broken, marking a significant structural shift. He pointed to the rising market awareness of quantum computing risks as a reason behind this shift.

“12 YR TREND BROKEN. BTC should be a valued a LOT HIGHER relative to gold. Should be. IT’S NOT. The valuation trend broke down once QUANTUM came into awareness,” Woo said.

Bitcoin’s Valuation Against Gold Breaks 12-Year Trend as Quantum Computing Awareness Rises. Source: X/Willy WooBitcoin’s security relies on elliptic curve cryptography (ECDSA over secp256k1). A sufficiently advanced, fault-tolerant quantum computer running Shor’s algorithm could theoretically derive private keys from exposed public keys and compromise funds associated with those on-chain addresses.

Such technology is not yet capable of breaking Bitcoin’s encryption. Nonetheless, a key concern, Woo argues, is the potential reactivation of an estimated 4 million “lost” BTC. If quantum breakthroughs made those coins accessible, they could re-enter circulation, effectively increasing supply.

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To illustrate the scale, Woo explained that corporations following MicroStrategy’s 2020 playbook and spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated approximately 2.8 million BTC. The possible return of 4 million lost coins would exceed that total, equivalent to roughly eight years of enterprise-level accumulation at recent rates.

“The market has started pricing in the return of these lost coins ahead of time. This process completes once the Q-Day risk is off the table. Until then, BTCUSD will price in this risk. Q-Day is 5 to 15 years away… that’s a long time trading with a cloud over its head,” he emphasized. 

He acknowledged that Bitcoin would likely adopt quantum-resistant signatures before any credible attack becomes feasible. However, upgrading cryptography would not automatically resolve the status of these coins. 

“I’d say it’s 75% chance that lost coins will not be frozen by a protocol hard fork,”  the analyst remarked. “Unfortunately the next 10 years is when BTC is most needed. It’s the end of the long term debt cycle, it’s where macro investors and sovereigns run to hard assets like gold to shelter from global debt deleveraging. Hence gold moons without BTC.”

Woo’s analysis does not suggest that quantum attacks are imminent. Instead, it positions quantum computing as a long-term variable factored into Bitcoin’s relative valuation, particularly in comparison to gold.

Meanwhile, Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, offered a complementary perspective on how quantum risk may be influencing market behavior. According to Edwards, concerns surrounding the quantum threat were likely a key factor that drove Bitcoin’s price lower.

Google interest in "Quantum Computing Bitcoin" peaked when Bitcoin peaked. Evaluation of the risk was at a maxima when price was, resulting in derisking, a leading indicator to price falling. The Quantum threat drove Bitcoin down. The floor interest in quantum risk to Bitcoin is… pic.twitter.com/a7m3Ucq7wr

— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) February 15, 2026 The quantum threat is also shaping real portfolio moves. Jefferies strategist Christopher Wood reduced a 10% Bitcoin allocation in favor of gold and mining stocks, citing quantum concerns. This highlights that institutional investors see quantum computing as a significant risk, not a remote one.

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Schwab hires stablecoin product manager to accelerate digital assets roadmapcharles schwab is hiring a product manager for stablecoin-related businesses, signaling an acceleration of its digital assets roadmap. As reported by Ledger Insights, the role shifts stablecoins from concept to concrete product development under a large, regulated brokerage.

The move indicates product-cycle rigor and integration with advisor workflows rather than isolated pilots. It positions stablecoins as infrastructure for payments, settlement, and cash-like functionality inside established investment platforms.

Why it matters: client consolidation, RIA workflows, and regulatory clarityAccording to Cointelegraph, large financial institutions are staffing digital-asset roles to meet client demand for asset consolidation under trusted brands and to embed crypto access within Registered Investment Advisor workflows. That context frames Schwab’s hiring as retention- and experience-driven, not speculative.

Leadership has separately outlined a measured product path that prioritizes client utility and compliance over hype. In that vein, said Rick Wurster, CEO of Charles Schwab: “We plan to offer spot trading for Bitcoin and Ethereum and intend to issue a stablecoin; we will explore building in-house or partnering.” He has also been skeptical about tokenizing public equities absent clear client benefit and regulatory clarity.

BingX: a trusted exchange delivering real advantages for traders at every level.

In the near term, the effect is primarily planning and design. The hiring signals resourcing for requirements gathering, risk controls, reserve frameworks, and brokerage/RIA integration rather than immediate product launch.

Existing access to spot bitcoin and ether funds, alongside other crypto-linked products, offers adjacent infrastructure that a Charles schwab stablecoin or direct spot trading could complement. Any rollout would be gated by compliance, custody, and supervisory expectations.

At the time of this writing, SCHW closed at 93.72, down 1.10%, based on data from Yahoo.

Stablecoin structure, reserves, and regulatory treatment signalsCovered stablecoins: 1:1 backing, liquidity, and redeemability expectations (SEC staff)According to staff of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, certain “covered stablecoins” structured with 1:1 backing, ready liquidity, and reliable redeemability are not being treated as securities. That staff posture may reduce registration friction while leaving prudential, disclosure, and operational risk obligations intact.

GENIUS Act: reserve and oversight signals for institutions like Charles SchwabAccording to PwC, the GENIUS Act delineates payment stablecoin parameters, including reserve composition and supervisory touchpoints across the Federal Reserve, OCC, and FDIC. This framework signals how large institutions can structure reserves, controls, and program oversight.

For firms integrating stablecoins into brokerage and advisor channels, the Act’s definitions and oversight map help align treasury operations, redemption mechanics, and disclosures with regulator expectations.

FAQ about Charles Schwab stablecoinHow does the GENIUS Act and recent SEC staff guidance affect Schwab’s ability to issue or support a stablecoin?They clarify payment stablecoin definitions and reserves, while SEC staff signaled some 1:1 coins aren’t securities. That narrows registration hurdles but preserves bank-style oversight and controls.

When will Schwab offer spot Bitcoin and Ethereum trading, and how will it work within existing brokerage and RIA platforms?Leadership placed spot Bitcoin and Ethereum trading on the roadmap, with timing still in planning. Integration would leverage existing brokerage and RIA channels, subject to compliance gating.

DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.

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An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) model estimates that Bitcoin (BTC) will remain relatively stable in the near-term, but also that late February will bring a modest upside following the latest developments. 

Specifically, after several weeks of exceptionally high volatility and downward pressure that wiped some $450 billion from the cryptocurrency’s market capitalization, Bitcoin has stabilized roughly in the $64,000 to $71,000 range and is, at press time, changing hands at about $68,900.

Bitcoin price one-week chart. Source: Finbold The movements led many traders and analysts to conclude that BTC is headed toward the cycle bottom. The prevailing bearish sentiment became starkly apparent earlier in February when the digital assets ‘Fear & Greed Index’ hit record lows.

Elsewhere, however, some institutional experts believe the bear case is very weak and that a rebound towards new highs is the more likely option. 

Between the relative stabilization and clashing views of the future, Finbold decided to consult advanced AI about what Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory might be and where BTC might trade by March 1, 2026.

AI sets Bitcoin price target for March 1, 2026 After tallying the latest moves, ChatGPT was quick to recognize that BTC is in a sideways consolidation phase near a major correction and that, at press time on February 16, there are no evident imminent catalysts for the cryptocurrency’s price.

Thus, OpenAI’s flagship platform concluded that Bitcoin is likely to remain relatively range-bound in the coming weeks, albeit with an upward tint due to the deep correction that affected the market in late January and early February.

Indeed, ChatGPT explained that the overall fearful sentiment, paired with continued institutional adoption and a mixed macroeconomic situation, is most likely to leave Bitcoin exhibiting ‘typical’ two-week behavior.

Therefore, the AI sets its March 1, 2026 BTC price target at $72,300, 4.93% above the press time price of $68,900.

ChatGPT Bitcoin price prediction for March 1, 2026. Source: Finbold & ChatGPT ChatGPT also emphasized that its Bitcoin March price forecast exists within a ‘plausible’ support and resistance range, is not dependent on major news to lead to it, and is, as the model put it, ‘just the most probable outcome given current structure.’

Featured image via Shutterstock

Yesterday's gains were quickly erased in the cryptocurrency markets, with some alts, such as PI, DOGE, and XRP, marking big losses.

Bitcoin’s weekend price rally came to an end at just over $70,000, and the asset was pushed south to $68,000, where it found some support.

Most altcoins have turned red as well, with ETH going below $2,000 and XRP plummeting beneath $1.50. Dogecoin is among the worst performers in the past 24 hours.

BTC Rally Stopped Above $70K The primary cryptocurrency went through some enhanced volatility at the start of the current month, mostly downward. The culmination took place on February 6, when it plunged to a 15-month low at $60,000 after losing $30,000 in just under two weeks.

Then came the bounce-off as BTC rocketed by $12,000 to $72,000. It was stopped there and spent the following few days trading sideways between $72,000 that $68,000. The lower boundary gave in mid-week, and bitcoin slipped to under $66,000.

The bulls finally stepped up after this point and helped prevent another leg down. Just the opposite, BTC started to gain traction at the end of the business week and jumped to over $69,000. It continued to climb above $70,000 on Saturday and Sunday before it was stopped there and driven to $68,000 on Sunday evening.

It has recovered some ground since then, but still trades below $69,000 as of press time. Its market cap is down to $1.375 trillion on CG, while its dominance over the alts stands still at 56.6%.

BTCUSD Feb 16. Source: TradingView Alts Heading South Ethereum was quickly rejected at $2,100 over the weekend and now struggles below the psychological $2,000 level. Ripple’s XRP skyrocketed yesterday to over $1.65 but was stopped and pushed south to under $1.50 as of press time. DOGE was the top gainer yesterday from the larger-caps, but it’s now down to $0.10 after a 9% daily drop.

Other big losers over the past day include XMR, ZEC, WLFI, and MNT. Pi Network’s native token has also faced a violent rejection. It was stopped at over $0.20 yesterday and is now down to just over $0.17 on CoinGecko.

The total crypto market cap has lost $70 billion in a day and is down to $2.425 trillion on CG.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview Feb 16. Source: QuantifyCrypto

The Bitcoin price took a dip below the major $69,000 on Sunday. That said, the price is keeping very close to this level. In addition, a breakout pattern is emerging. If the $BTC price can break up and out of this pattern, $82,000 could be the target.

Triangle pattern emerges

Source: TradingView

The short-term time frame for $BTC shows that the price has dipped back below the major $69,000 level. We are calling it resistance in this time frame because a few candles have closed below, but in the higher time frames this level is still very much support.

The light green candle in the centre of the chart has at least three touches to the top and to the bottom, confirming it as a pattern. At first glance it looks like a very bullish ascending triangle, but it can be noticed that the top of the triangle is tilted, and so it may be a wedge pattern.

The main thing is that it is a bullish pattern and therefore the price is more likely to break out of the top than the bottom. The target for the measured move out of the top of the triangle is $82,000, while if it breaks down, $57,000 is a possible downside target.

It might also be taken into consideration that a CME gap still needs to be filled at a level of around $84,600.

A break up or down out of triangle pattern?

Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows how the bottom trendline of the large falling wedge pattern has become resistance for the $BTC price over the last several days. This is in fact the top trendline of the green triangle. There is only another couple of days left in this triangle before a breakout has to take place in one direction or the other. 

If the major support level holds, the breakout is going to be to the upside. This is probably the more likely option, although a bearish scenario is still very much in the running. 

The first of the indicators below tends to go along with the bearish case. The Stochastic RSI indicators have reached the top and are at the point of rolling over. If they do, the triangle pattern could break down.

In contrast, the MACD at the bottom of the chart illustrates a cross up of the indicator lines, while the first couple of small green bars emerge in the histogram. This supports the bullish case.

Major support is holding … just

Source: TradingView

Zooming out into the weekly time frame, and keeping the same indicators, it can be seen that the $BTC price is managing to hold the major support. The two previous weekly candles both shot wicks down below, but the candle bodies closed above (the last candle close was thereabouts). 

It’s a possibility that the price does break down further, and we can see there are good support levels at $65,000 and $60,000. The $53,000 support is drawn in because it is also the measured move out of the bear flag (in purple). 

While the Stochastic RSI indicators are bottoming nicely again ready for a potential cross back up, the MACD indicators in this time frame are still heading down. In fact, they are at their lowest levels ever - could this be a sound reason for a turnaround from here? The latest histogram bar has turned pink, so perhaps this indicator is on its way back to a bullish green colour?

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Harvard Management Company (HMC), the investment arm of Harvard University’s endowment, reduced its stake in a major Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by roughly 21 %.

Summary

Harvard Management Company cut its Bitcoin ETF holdings by approximately 21%, trimming around 1.5 million shares of the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), according to its latest SEC 13F filing. Despite the reduction, Bitcoin remains one of the endowment’s largest publicly disclosed positions, valued at roughly $265 million at the end of Q4 2025. The filing also shows a new $86.8 million position in the iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA), marking Harvard’s first disclosed allocation to an Ether-linked ETF. Harvard rotates into ETH as Bitcoin ETF holdings shrink 21% Simultaneously, HMC established a new multimillion-dollar position in an Ethereum (ETH) ETF, according to a quarterly 13F filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The filing, which discloses Harvard’s U.S.-listed equity holdings as of December 31, 2025, shows that the endowment cut close to 1.5 million shares of the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) compared with the previous quarter.

Despite this reduction, Bitcoin (BTC) remains HMC’s largest publicly disclosed holding with a reported market value of approximately $265.8 million at year-end.

In a notable strategic move, Harvard initiated a new position in the iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) acquiring about 3.87 million shares valued at an estimated $86.8 million during the same period. This represents the university’s first publicly disclosed allocation into an Ether-linked ETF.

While the filing primarily highlights the adjustment in digital-asset ETFs, it also shows broader shifts in HMC’s publicly reported equity holdings, including both increases and reductions across major tech and industrial names. However, the crypto positions, even after trimming, remain among the most significant individual line items disclosed.

While Aave is the largest DeFi lending protocol with roughly $27 billion in total value locked, its native token is down about 15% in 2026 and more than 80% below its 2021 peak. Despite the price slump, institutional interest appears to be growing, as Grayscale filed with the SEC to convert its Aave trust into a spot ETF.

Aave Predicts $50T Future for Onchain AssetsStani Kulechov, founder of the decentralized lending protocol Aave, believes decentralized finance could unlock as much as $50 trillion in so-called “abundance assets” through tokenization by 2050, which could create an entirely new category of on-chain collateral. 

According to data from RWA.xyz, almost $25 billion worth of real-world assets have already been tokenized on-chain. However, most of that value is tied to familiar asset classes like US Treasury bonds, stocks, commodities, private credit and real estate. Kulechov argues that while these scarce assets will continue to grow on-chain, the greatest long-term impact will come from tokenizing assets that generate increasing supply and productive capacity, particularly in renewable energy and advanced technologies.

X post from Stani Kulechov

In a recent post on X, Kulechov said capital markets are “hungry for new collateral” and that on-chain lending infrastructure could accelerate a broader transformation in how infrastructure and productive assets are financed. He estimates that solar energy alone could account for between $15 trillion and $30 trillion of the projected $50 trillion abundance asset market by mid-century.

As an example, he described how a $100 million solar project could be partially financed through tokenization, allowing developers to borrow $70 million against it and redeploy that capital into additional projects. In such a model, on-chain depositors would gain exposure to scalable, diversified yield streams backed by real-world infrastructure.

Kulechov also talked about the potential capital efficiency gains from tokenized infrastructure. Unlike traditional infrastructure investments, which often lock up capital for decades, tokenized assets could be traded continuously. This would allow investors to exit positions and redeploy funds into new developments more quickly. This could allow the same capital to finance multiple projects over time. He extended this vision beyond solar to include energy storage batteries, robotics, vertical farming, lab-grown food, semiconductors and 3D printing.

Additionally, he argued that abundance-backed products may ultimately offer stronger returns and better risk characteristics than scarce assets, which he suggested are facing compressing margins and reduced profitability. In his view, tokenized productive infrastructure could outperform because it aligns capital with scalable growth sectors.

Aave is currently still the largest DeFi lending protocol by total value locked, with around $27 billion deposited for borrowing and lending, according to DeFiLlama. Despite its leading position in decentralized lending, Aave’s native token struggled in the market downturn. The AAVE token dropped by about 15% so far in 2026 and is trading more than 80% below its May 2021 all-time high.

AAVE’s YTD price action (Source: CoinCodex)

Grayscale Files for Aave ETF ApprovalDespite AAVE’s price performance over the past few months, crypto asset manager Grayscale Investments filed for regulatory approval to convert its existing Aave trust into a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF). The company submitted a Form S-1 registration statement to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) outlining plans to transform the trust into the Grayscale Aave Trust ETF.

If approved, the fund will list on NYSE Arca under the ticker GAVE. Grayscale said it plans to charge a 2.5% management fee, with Coinbase serving as both custodian and prime broker for the proposed ETF. The structure will hold AAVE tokens directly, offering investors straightforward exposure to the decentralized finance protocol’s native asset.

The filing places Grayscale among a growing group of asset managers looking to launch altcoin-focused ETFs in the United States. This could mean that institutional interest in diversified crypto exposure is still intact, even as digital asset prices cooled from previous highs. 

Grayscale’s application follows a similar move by Bitwise Asset Management, which filed in December to launch the Bitwise AAVE Strategy ETF. Bitwise’s proposal differs in structure, as it plans to allocate up to 60% of its assets directly into AAVE tokens, with the remaining portion invested in securities like other ETFs providing AAVE exposure. By contrast, Grayscale’s proposed fund would hold the token outright.

If approved, the two products will become the first US-based ETFs to provide direct exposure to Aave, joining a limited number of similar offerings overseas. In Europe, 21Shares previously launched an Aave exchange-traded product on the Nasdaq Stockholm, while Global X introduced a comparable product in Germany.

For Grayscale, the Aave filing is another step forward in broadening its lineup beyond flagship Bitcoin and Ethereum vehicles. For now, only time will tell if regulators will extend approval to DeFi-focused tokens.

Journalist

Posted: February 16, 2026

Bitcoin [BTC] traded near $68,700 at press time after a 30% retracement, reflecting controlled deleveraging rather than structural breakdown.

Profit-taking and ETF outflows triggered the decline, while macro risk aversion extended it.

Yet the spot remains well above the $54,900 aggregate realized price, preserving a profitability buffer.

Meanwhile, long-term holders anchor the cost basis near $40,600, steadily absorbing sell pressure. Their inactivity tightens liquid supply, thereby muting full capitulation dynamics.

Source: Glassnode

In contrast, the sub-seven-year supply cohort holds a higher realized cost, leaving recent entrants underwater and sustaining distribution. Thereafter, the MVRV Z-Score compresses toward 0.5, revisiting prior value zones.

Unlike in 2018 and 2022, prices remain structurally elevated as the realized cap expands. Altogether, this divergence signals mid-bear accumulation forming atop a higher cyclical base.

Whale re-accumulation reinforces mid-cycle compression Large-holder activity intensifies as market correction extends and sentiment fatigue deepens. Transaction data shows whales adjusting exposure through Binance’s deep liquidity.

Notably, the 1,000–10,000 BTC cohort now commands 74% of total inflows. This dominance reflects strategic repositioning rather than passive custody transfers.

Source: CryptoQuant

Just days earlier, the 100–1,000 BTC group surged to 43% of inflows, signaling layered distribution. Together, these spikes point to escalating sell-side pressure from heavyweight actors.

Yet Bitcoin has held relatively stable, as residual demand absorbs portions of supply. This absorption slows downside momentum while revealing underlying fragility.

If large-flow pressure persists without stronger bids, structural strain may expand. Thereafter, downside probes could test the $60,000–$72,000 support band, reinforcing a cautious mid-cycle redistribution phase.

Shorts drive orderly redistribution Bitcoin’s correction has matured into a fatigue phase, with price consolidating near $68,000–$69,000 after a 45–50% retracement from $126,000.

The drawdown began through leveraged unwinds and macro risk aversion, which first destabilized short-term holders.

As positions sank underwater, they realized the losses due to exit risk. On February 5, this capitulation peaked at $5.4 billion when the price dropped to $62,000.

Thereafter, seven-day realized losses averaged $2.3 billion, sustaining mechanical sell pressure.

This distribution flowed through spot markets and derivatives deleveraging, where funding briefly flipped negative as the longs closed. Meanwhile, long-term holders withheld supply, absorbing part of the shock.

The realized price held near $55,000, maintaining an 18–25% premium buffer. Altogether, forced selling met passive absorption, driving orderly redistribution and base-building within $55,000–$72,000.

Final Summary Capitulation remains localized to short-term holders, with price still holding above the $55,000 realized structural floor. Absent cost-basis breakdown and LTH distress, conditions reflect mid-cycle compression—not full bear capitulation.

XRP reserves on Binance have dropped to their lowest point since early 2024 as the token’s price remains stuck below the $1.50 mark.

The crypto exchange now holds roughly 2.5 billion XRP, down sharply from around 3.2 billion XRP in November 2024 and back to levels last seen in January 2024, based on new on-chain data accessible on CryptoQuant on February 16. 

Binance XRP reserves. Source: CryptoQuant Historically, declining exchange reserves have signalled reduced immediate selling pressure, particularly when XRP moves into self-custody. Accordingly, such setups tend to be interpreted as a longer-term accumulation strategy on the part of institutions and large holders.

Something similar happened with Ethereum (ETH) earlier this month, when the second-largest crypto saw its on-exchange reserves sink to a ten-year low. The drawdown had unfolded gradually as ETH prices pulled back, not driven by price swings but long-term holding behavior. 

XRP’s current reserve decline accelerated after Binance introduced support for the RLUSD stablecoin on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) late last week. While many expected increased on-chain activity, the more immediate effect appears to be XRP flowing off the exchange instead.

XRP prices down  On the price front, XRP is down nearly 6% over the past 24 hours, trading at $1.47 at the time of writing and underperforming the broader cryptocurrency market.

The decline follows a rejection of the $1.53 mark, marking a decisive momentum shift below $1.50. Now, momentum indicators suggest there may still be room for further downside. 

For example, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 41.82, above oversold territory, indicating bearish momentum is not to be underestimated. The rejection has likely prompted technical traders to reduce exposure, reinforcing the downside move.

Also noteworthy is XRP’s loss of more than $11 billion in market value over the past 24 hours, which fell from $101 billion to $89.31 billion at press time. While the broader market was nothing to write home about either, XRP’s sharp decline appears to have been amplified by heavy selling activity on Upbit, where roughly $50 million worth of the cryptocurrency was reportedly offloaded.

With XRP now trading at $1.47, the $1.50 region may act as near-term resistance. On the other hand, $1.40 stands out as immediate support. In other words, a sustained break below that level could open the door to deeper losses. 

Featured image via Shutterstock

Ripple news: SBI Holdings CEO Yoshitaka Kitao has stepped in to correct misleading claims that the company holds $10 billion worth of XRP, clarifying that its real exposure comes from a significant equity stake in Ripple Labs.

His response comes as Ripple’s native token XRP price is trading around$1.46, and seeing a 4% weekly gain.

Ripple News: SBI CEO Rejects $10B XRP Holdings RumorThe confusion started after an X user named Ledger Man praised Ripple-backed SBI Holdings for expanding its crypto presence in Singapore through the acquisition of Coinhako.

However, what truly grabbed attention was the claim that SBI Holdings owns $10 billion worth of XRP.

Yoshitaka Kitao responded directly to the post and corrected the numbers. He made it clear that SBI does not hold $10 billion in XRP tokens. Instead, the company owns about a 9% equity stake in Ripple Labs.

Not 💲10 bil. in XRP.but around 9% of
Ripple Lab. So our hidden asset could be
much bigger,

— 北尾吉孝 (@yoshitaka_kitao) February 15, 2026 This is an important difference. SBI’s exposure is not through direct XRP holdings, but through its ownership in Ripple itself. The clarification shifts the focus away from token holdings and toward the long-term SBI-Ripple partnership.

SBI’s Current Ripple HoldingRipple has an important role in cross-border payments and decentralized finance (DeFi). As of now, the company’s valuation is close to $50 billion. This follows a $500 million funding round and its expansion into stablecoins and digital asset custody services.

As per this valuation, SBI’s 9% equity stake in Ripple gives it an estimated exposure of around $4.5 billion.

SBI Ripple Partnership Strengthens Institutional Confidence in XRPThe SBI Ripple partnership has been one of the strongest collaborations driving XRP adoption globally. SBI Holdings has actively supported Ripple’s expansion, especially across Asian markets where demand for faster cross-border payments continues to grow.

Kitao also suggested that SBI’s Ripple stake could be more valuable in the future. 

As of now, XRP price is trading around $1.49, reflecting a drop of 6% today, while showing a 4% rise in a week.

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Pi Network’s native token extended last weekend’s volatile stretch on Monday, albeit not in the direction that investors had expected. After a brief rally that took the token on a 25% run, Pi coin fell about 15% over 24 hours, before reversing some of the losses to minimize the drop. 

Over the weekend, the Pi token touched $0.1985, its highest price since January 20, when it struggled to maintain its upward momentum amid the market-wide correction. Pi was among the weakest performers during that period, repeatedly setting new lows, including a decline to $0.1312 on February 11.

Pi coin Sunday rally comes to a halt, profits shedding continues Looking at the intraday price chart, the Pi Coin Sunday rally occurred amid a mandatory Mainnet node upgrade deadline. After the upgrade window passed, an en masse selling session saw holders lock in profits they had gained from “buying the news.” 

Sunday trading had seen Pi jump more than 30% in a single day and over 55% from its recent all-time low, creating conditions for a pullback once the catalyst faded.

PiScan wallet activity for centralized exchanges shows investors are dropping more coins into exchanges, which could mean the selling pressure has not yet settled. An uptick in exchange balances signals short-term selling pressure, as tokens moved onto trading platforms are readily available for liquidation. 

Seychelles-based trading platform OKX recorded the highest inflows of about 4.33 million PI, against outflows of 1.48 million PI, for a positive netflow of 2.84 million PI. Bitget had the opposite pattern, logging 861,134 PI token entries and 2.37 million PI withdrawals, resulting in a net outflow of 1.51 million PI. 

MEXC posted modest net inflows of around 442,961 PI, while Gate.io registered a stronger positive balance change exceeding 1.09 million PI. 

All CEXs tracked by PiScan recorded total inflows of approximately 7.86 million PI, compared with 4.97 million PI in outflows. The aggregate net flow stood near 2.89 million PI entering exchanges.

Pi Network starts node upgrade timeline This update is a part of a planned roadmap that aims to increase the number of validators and enhance the distributed ledger technology on which the Pi ecosystem is embedded.

The Pi Core development team explained that nodes are integral in validating transactions in the blockchain. Their function is to ensure all participants reach consensus on transaction order while preserving the integrity of the ledger.

Pi uses a consensus mechanism derived from the Stellar Consensus Protocol, in which nodes form trusted clusters known as quorum slices and approve transactions only when those trusted peers agree.

Network operators are required to wait for confirmation of system-wide completion at each stage before proceeding, to reduce any chances of fragmentation during the rollout.

According to Pi Coin community member amrOnChain, the February 15 upgrade deadline covered version 19.6. Upcoming deadlines include February 27 and March 12, while other upgrades will be revealed after the earlier phases are finalized. The development team has advised participants not to attempt installing any future updates before an official announcement.

🧵PI NODE PROTOCOL UPGRADE GUIDE: THE COMPLETE BREAKDOWN! 🧵

The path from v19 to v23 is set. Every node operator needs to understand this. Let's dive in. 👇#PiNetwork #NodeUpgrade #Protocolv23 #Mainnet pic.twitter.com/P65yGmQUr0

— amrOnChain (@amr_nannaware) February 13, 2026

Pi token holders will be hoping that the $0.15-$0.16 technical support range holds, as the token risks dropping further to $0.12 if selling pressure persists. Some market watchers predict the token to fluctuate between $0.16 and $0.20 after the market digests the 24-hour downward-bound volatility. 

Prospera, a Zone for Employment and Economic Development (ZEDE) in Honduras that uses bitcoin as legal tender, faces uncertainty about its future after the highest court declared the framework that created it unconstitutional.

Onchain analyst and early Bitcoin adopter Willy Woo is warning that growing attention to quantum computing risks is starting to weigh on Bitcoin’s long-term valuation case against gold.

Woo argued in a Monday X post that markets had begun to price in the risk of a future “Q‑Day” breakthrough — shorthand for the moment when a powerful enough quantum computer exists to break today’s public key cryptography.

Roughly 4 million “lost” Bitcoin (BTC) — coins whose private keys are presumed gone — could be dragged back into play, Woo argued, if a powerful quantum computer could derive private keys from exposed public keys, undermining part of Bitcoin’s core scarcity narratives.

He estimated only about a 25% chance that the network would agree to freeze those coins via a hard fork, one of the most contentious issues in Bitcoin governance today.

Q‑day risk and “lost” coinsAccording to blockchain researchers, the 4 million exposed coins represent around 25%-30% of the Bitcoin supply and are held in addresses whose public keys are already visible onchain, making them among the first at risk in a quantum attack scenario.

Yet any move to freeze these coins would upend long‑standing norms around fungibility, immutability and property rights.

Freezing the coins could provoke deep splits between those prioritizing backward‑compatible fixes (upgrades that preserve existing rules and coins without invalidating past transactions or requiring a contentious hard fork), and those willing to rewrite rules to protect early balances.

With a 75% likelihood of the coins remaining untouched, investors should assume, Woo said, a non‑trivial probability that an amount of BTC equivalent to roughly “8 years of enterprise accumulation” becomes spendable again.

It’s a prospect that is already being priced in as a structural discount on BTC’s valuation versus gold for the next five to 15 years, Woo argued, meaning that Bitcoin’s long‑term tendency to gain purchasing power when measured in ounces of gold is no longer in play.

BTC vs Gold Chart Price and Ratio. Source: BitboBitcoin’s post‑quantum migration pathMany core developers and cryptographers stress that Bitcoin does not face an imminent “doomsday” situation and has time to adapt.

The emerging roadmap for a post‑quantum migration is not a single emergency hard fork, they argue, but a phased process, eventually steering the network toward new address formats and key management practices over a multi‑year transition. 

Even if quantum did arrive sooner than expected and the coins were recirculated, other Bitcoiners, such as Human Rights Foundation chief strategy officer Alex Gladstein, argue that it is unlikely they would be dumped onto the market. 

Gladstein sees a more likely scenario where the coins are accumulated by a nation-state rather than immediately sold.

Quantum risk goes mainstream in macroStill, Woo’s warning lands in a market where Bitcoin is trading almost 50% off its all-time high, and quantum has already moved from a niche concern to a mainstream risk factor in institutional portfolios.

In January, Jefferies’ longtime “Greed & Fear” strategist Christopher Wood cut Bitcoin from his flagship model portfolio and rotated the position into gold, explicitly citing the possibility that “cryptographically relevant” quantum machines could weaken Bitcoin’s store of value case for pension‑style investors. 

Magazine: Kevin O’Leary says quantum attacking Bitcoin would be a waste of time

​

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Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy

XRP Ledger Draws Interest from Mastercard, BlackRock & Franklin TempletonRising interest in the XRP Ledger from major financial institutions is spotlighting its expanding role in digital assets. 

A senior XRPL Commons executive recently indicated that large institutions are actively evaluating the technology, highlighting a deepening link between traditional finance and blockchain infrastructure.

Speaking in a recent interview at the Digital Assets Forum, Odelia Torteman, Director of Corporate Adoption at XRPL Commons, confirmed that global institutions are evaluating the XRP Ledger for real-world financial applications. 

When asked directly whether firms such as Mastercard, BlackRock, and Franklin Templeton had expressed interest, her response was clear: “Absolutely.”

This endorsement is timely as banks, asset managers, and payment firms face mounting pressure to upgrade cross-border payments, settlement rails, and asset issuance. Blockchain solutions offer faster speeds, lower costs, and greater transparency than many legacy systems—where even marginal efficiency gains can mean major savings at global scale.

Meanwhile, Ripple has reportedly removed a key barrier for banks on the XRP Ledger, a development seen as bullish for unlocking billions in potential institutional flows.

Why XRP Ledger Is Emerging as a Serious Contender for Global Financial InfrastructureTorteman emphasized that the XRP Ledger was purpose-built for financial services, not retrofitted later, focusing on cross-asset payments, transparent flows, real-world asset tokenization, and institutional-grade settlement. 

That design positions it as potential core infrastructure for digital finance, not just a speculative network. Recent payment volumes climbing to 1.88 million further underscore its accelerating real-world adoption.

Central to XRP’s vision is its role as a bridge currency, enabling fast, efficient transfers between different currencies and tokenized assets. For institutions, this could minimize the need to pre-fund accounts globally. With the White House Digital Assets Advisor forecasting mainstream tokenization within 1–3 years, the XRP Ledger stands to benefit significantly.

Well, Expressions of interest may not guarantee adoption, but they often spark pilots, partnerships, and integration. If major institutions act, blockchain-based settlement rails could see rapid mainstream uptake. 

Therefore, Torteman’s remarks underscore a clear trend that traditional finance is actively exploring, not just observing, how networks like the XRP Ledger could shape the future of global finance.

ConclusionMastercard, BlackRock, and Franklin Templeton’s growing interest signals that the XRP Ledger is shifting from speculation to enterprise-grade adoption. 

As a bridge currency on a decentralized network, XRP could streamline cross-border payments, tokenization, and institutional settlements. While still early, major institutional attention highlights XRPL’s potential as a foundational infrastructure for global finance.

If Bitcoin is not able to go beyond the $69,500 resistance zone, it could witness another decline.  The major support is at $66,500, and if the price goes below this, then BTC might struggle to recover in the near term.  The price of Bitcoin hasn’t been successful in being stable over the $70,000 mark. It started declining and traded below the $69,200 support zone. Also, at the time of writing, it is exchanging hands at $68,296.87. 

The price went below the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward shift from the $65,072 swing low to the $70,935 high.  At the same time, there was a break below the bullish trend line having support at $69,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. 

With the price being at $68,296.87, the price remains stable above the $68,000 level and gives hope for another attempt at a fresh increase. The immediate resistance resides around the $68,800 level.

The Resistance and Support Zones  Talking about the first key resistance, it is at $69,500, and a close above the $69,500 resistance might push the price higher. In the given situation, the price could move further to test the $70,000 resistance. 

Any further gains will send the price towards the $70,500 level. The other obstacle for the bulls could be either $72,000 or $72,500. If Bitcoin is not able to go beyond the $69,500 resistance zone, it could witness another decline, and the first support is around the $68,200 level. 

After which, the other and the major support is at the $68,000 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $65,072 swing low to the $70,935 high. The third support level is now around the $67,350 zone, and any further losses than this can take the price to the $67,350 support in the near future. 

The major support is at $66,500, and if the price goes below this, then BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. 

Highlighted Crypto News Today: 

Jake Paul Associate Claims “Zero Rug Pull Risk” for New Memecoin, Analysts Push Back

A passionate journalist with a strong foundation in content writing and an experience in the crypto industry. With a commitment to self-growth, Sharmistha aims to make a meaningful impact in the media and communications landscape.

Tokenized US Treasuries are close to $11 billion, but the chain war is shifting from issuance to distribution and utility. Where yield tokens actually sit, how often they move, and whether they plug into stablecoin settlement and collateral workflows are what matters.

Last week, XRP Ledger (XRPL) got two signals that it's trying to matter in that “venue” fight.

First, Aviva Investors said it's partnering with Ripple to tokenize traditional fund structures on the XRP Ledger, framing tokenization as moving from experiments to “large-scale production” over the next decade.

Second, OpenEden's TBILL token supply is skewed toward XRPL: more of the supply resides there than on Ethereum.

Yet the early activity data raises a harder question: is XRPL becoming a real RWA venue, or just another issuance endpoint while trading and collateral gravity remain on Ethereum and layer 2s?

Tokenized T-bills here mean tokenized fund shares or vault tokens backed by short-dated US Treasuries, held and transferred on-chain.

Stablecoins matter because they're the cash leg for subscriptions and redemptions and the settlement rail that makes “24/7 treasury liquidity” plausible.

This story tests three credibility checks to decide whether XRPL is seeing a real venue shift or a narrative spike: issuance, distribution and usage, and financial utility.

Three credibility testsCredibility concerns whether regulated issuers and asset managers are actually choosing XRPL over crypto-native firms.

Distribution and usage ponder whether meaningful balances and transfers live on XRPL, instead of just “launched on XRPL” headlines.

Financial utility assesses whether these assets are used for settlement and collateral flows or are mostly parked.

Collateral is where “venue” becomes durable.

Aviva and OpenEdenAviva Investors and Ripple announced a partnership to tokenize traditional fund structures on XRPL.

The companies explicitly position it as multi-year work “over 2026 and beyond.” Aviva describes “tokenized funds” and “traditional fund structures,” not “T-bills only.” This matters because it's an institutional distribution narrative as much as a specific product narrative.

What success would look like: a named tokenized fund product goes live with prospectus, terms, and eligible investors. Additionally, a growing holder base on XRPL beyond single-digit wallets, and repeated transfer volume consistent with settlement, not just mint-and-sit.

Right now, Aviva's commitment is a partnership intention and a multi-year build, not a launched fund on XRPL today.

OpenEden's TBILL vault token is explicitly a T-bill-backed vault token, consisting of short-dated US Treasuries with 1:1 backing, tracked on RWA.xyz.

TBILL's circulating supply is 54.41 million on XRPL, 32.02 million on Ethereum, and smaller amounts on Solana and Arbitrum. That's roughly 62.6% of TBILL supply sitting on XRPL.

However, usage is the tell. In the same dataset, TBILL's monthly transfer volume is $200 on XRPL, $3.09 million on Ethereum, and $3.62 million on Arbitrum. That's roughly 0.003% of TBILL's monthly transfer volume happening on XRPL.

It's a clean example of “issued and held here” versus “moved and used there.” This is an early indicator, not “XRPL wins.” It can signal controlled distribution, custody preferences, or just low on-chain velocity.

Chart showing XRPL holds 62.6% of TBILL token supply but accounts for only 0.003% of monthly transfer volume, while Ethereum and Arbitrum dominate actual usage.XRPL scoreboardThe tokenized Treasuries market size across all chains is $10.7 billion, per RWA.xyz.

XRPL's share of tokenized treasury value is most clearly reflected in TBILL: XRPL holds 54.41 million of the 86.90 million circulating tokens, representing about 62.6% of the TBILL supply.

Ondo's footprint on XRPL also appears as a meaningful platform line item on the XRPL network table and is up sharply over 30 days, but that's venue momentum, not category dominance.

Stablecoin settlement rails on XRPL show a stablecoin market cap of roughly $424.9 million, up 6.65% over 30 days, and a monthly stablecoin transfer volume of over $1 billion in January, up 34.3%.

Secondary activity for treasury tokens is the venue test. TBILL's total monthly transfer volume is $6.76 million, and the chain split is extremely uneven.

The question is whether these tokens are actually moving, not just where they're minted.

MetricLatest30D changeWhy it mattersSourceTokenized U.S. Treasuries total value (category size)$10.00B (as of 01/28/2026)N/A (public view shows 7D: +2.53%)Sets the TAM for the “venue war”: a large enough category that custody/settlement venues start to matter.RWA.xyz “Tokenized U.S. Treasuries.” (RWA.xyz)XRPL distributed RWA value$422.95M (as of 02/12/2026)+54.76%Measures whether XRPL is becoming a real home for non-stablecoin RWAs (inventory living on-chain).RWA.xyz XRPL network page. (RWA.xyz)XRPL stablecoin market cap$424.87M (as of 02/12/2026)+6.65%Stablecoins are the cash leg—without them, tokenized T-bills can’t be a settlement venue at scale.RWA.xyz XRPL network page. (RWA.xyz)XRPL stablecoin 30D transfer volume$1.19B (as of 02/12/2026)+57.52%“Venue” requires flow, not just balances—this is the best quick proxy for settlement activity on XRPL.RWA.xyz XRPL network page. (RWA.xyz)TBILL supply share on XRPL54.41M / 86.90M ≈ 62.6%—Shows where treasury-token inventory sits (distribution/custody footprint).RWA.xyz TBILL token table (XRPL + total circulating supply). (RWA.xyz)TBILL activity share on XRPL$200 / $6,759,808 ≈ 0.003%—The cleanest “utility” test: if it doesn’t move, XRPL is an issuance/parking venue, not a trading/settlement venue.RWA.xyz TBILL monthly transfer volume (XRPL + total). (RWA.xyz)Issuer credibility signalAviva Investors + Ripple intend to tokenize traditional fund structures on XRPL (announced Feb 11, 2026)—Answers the first credibility test: a major asset manager is signaling XRPL as a target venue (even if product launch is still future-tense).Aviva Investors press release. (avivainvestors.com)XRPL vs. Ethereum layer 2s countercaseXRPL's distribution-first posture shows up in how Aviva and Ripple pitch the ledger: “built-in compliance tools” and near-instant settlement, language that reads like regulated distribution more than DeFi composability.

That framing matters if institutions prioritize operational simplicity and predictable execution over deep liquidity pools.

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XRPL already centers on payments, and the natural bundle is stablecoins as the cash leg and treasury tokens as the yield leg.

If institutions prefer “boring rails” first, a venue can win by minimizing moving parts, such as custody, compliance, predictable execution, even if DeFi depth is thinner early on.

However, liquidity gravity is real. Tokenized treasuries become “venues” when they can be swapped against stablecoins and routed through institutional market makers at scale.

Uniswap Labs and Securitize's Feb. 11 integration to make BlackRock's BUIDL tradable on UniswapX is the Ethereum and layer-2 thesis in one announcement.

Ethereum's advantage is that it already has the most mature on-chain liquidity infrastructure, and layer 2s are inheriting that depth while reducing costs.

The collateral loop is the moat. Tokenized treasuries are increasingly discussed as collateral in the broader financial system.

Reuters reported that the Bank of England is exploring broader acceptance of tokenized assets as collateral, and that the European Central Bank is planning around the timing of tokenized collateral.

Ethereum's advantage is that it already has the most mature collateral plumbing, and institutions building settlement and lending flows are defaulting to where the infrastructure already exists.

The fork to name explicitly: Is XRPL choosing “regulated distribution” over “composable finance,” and can that win meaningfully in tokenized treasuries?

If the answer is yes, XRPL becomes a custody and compliance venue where assets sit but don't move much on-chain. If the answer is no, XRPL needs to build liquidity and collateral depth fast, which means competing directly with Ethereum's existing infrastructure.

Scatter plot showing Ethereum dominates both stablecoin infrastructure and RWA distribution, while XRPL has low stablecoin adoption and modest RWA positioning compared to competing chains.Hype or shift potential? The 30-to-90-day watchlistA glimpse of a potential venue shift could emerge over the next 30 to 90 days if XRPL's treasury-token transfer volumes rise materially and chain-level activity starts to match the balances.

TBILL is the stress test. Stablecoin settlement on XRPL continues to scale, with transfer volume growth tracking supply growth, supporting “cash leg plus yield leg” behavior.

A second regulated issuer follows Aviva, or Aviva progresses from “intention” to a live tokenized fund product with measurable holders.

However, it becomes hype if balances are static, holder counts remain small, and activity remains elsewhere. For example, if TBILL moves on Ethereum and layer 2s while remaining on XRPL.

The watchlist is printable: TBILL chain transfer share, XRPL stablecoin 30-day transfer volume, XRPL “distributed asset value” trend, and any Aviva follow-through disclosures.

Right now, the signals are mixed. XRPL has supply skew and stablecoin momentum, but usage is overwhelmingly elsewhere. Aviva is a credible institutional partner, but the commitment is multi-year intent, not a live product.

The next 90 days will show whether XRPL is building a real venue or just hosting another issuance narrative, while the actual settlement and collateral flows occur on Ethereum and layer 2s.

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Ramil Ventura Palafox got slammed with 20 years behind bars. The 61-year-old dual US-Philippines citizen ran Praetorian Group International like his personal piggy bank, stealing over $200 million from roughly 90,000 people who thought they were getting rich off Bitcoin trades.

Palafox basically told everyone PGI was some kind of Bitcoin trading wizard that could deliver daily returns between 0.5% and 3%. Pretty wild promises, right? He set up the whole thing as a multi-level marketing deal, which should’ve been the first red flag for anyone paying attention. But people kept throwing money at him from December 2019 through October 2021. We’re talking $30.3 million in regular cash plus around 8,198 Bitcoin worth $171.5 million back then.

The math didn’t work. Never did.

Turns out PGI wasn’t trading Bitcoin at all – just moving money from new victims to pay off older ones. Classic Ponzi scheme stuff. Palafox created this fake online portal that showed investors their accounts were growing like crazy. People saw these bogus numbers and figured they were making bank, so they kept investing more. The portal ran from 2020 to 2021, and it fooled pretty much everyone who used it.

Meanwhile, Palafox was living it up. Guy dropped $3 million on fancy cars – Porsches, Lamborghinis, the whole deal. Then he bought penthouses and houses in Las Vegas and Los Angeles for over $6 million. And that’s not even counting the $3 million he blew on designer clothes and watches from places like Gucci and Rolex.

He also moved $800,000 and 100 Bitcoin to a family member. Smart move, except investigators caught that too.

The damage was huge. Investors lost more than $62 million when everything collapsed. The Justice Department said victims might get some money back through restitution, but that process isn’t done yet. Nobody knows how much people will actually recover.

The UK stepped in back in 2022 and shut down PGI Global’s British operation. Then in April 2025, the SEC charged Palafox with running the Ponzi scheme. More legal trouble keeps piling up for the guy.

Court records show Palafox’s network stretched across multiple continents. He had victims in North America, Europe, and Asia – basically anywhere people had Bitcoin and wanted more of it. The FBI spent months unraveling all his fake trading records and manipulated financial statements. Pretty sophisticated operation for a scam. Related coverage: SafeMoon Ex-CEO Gets Eight Years Behind.

Assistant Attorney General Kenneth Polite Jr. said schemes like this exploit people’s trust and cause serious damage beyond just the money. He’s right – lots of victims are dealing with stress and anxiety about their financial futures. Some people invested their life savings.

Sarah Thompson, one of the victims, went public with her story about losing everything she’d saved up. The Justice Department knows these psychological impacts matter too, and they’re factoring that into restitution talks.

Civil lawsuits are starting to pop up against Palafox and PGI. Law firms representing groups of investors filed cases in multiple states, trying to get compensation for their clients. These cases could change how much money victims eventually see.

SEC Chair Gary Gensler keeps saying the agency won’t tolerate fraud in the crypto space. The SEC’s involvement here sends a message to anyone thinking about pulling similar stunts. They’re watching.

Asset recovery is the big focus now. Authorities are tracking down money and property linked to Palafox’s scheme. It’s complicated work that involves agencies from different countries, since the fraud crossed borders. How well they do with recovery will determine how much victims actually get back.

The restitution process remains murky. The Justice Department didn’t give specifics about timing or amounts. Victims are stuck waiting to see what happens next. Some might get a decent chunk of their money back, others probably won’t see much. That’s how these things usually go. Related coverage: Young Crypto Fraudster Gets 375-Year Prison.

Palafox’s sentencing wraps up one part of this mess, but the fallout continues. The FBI investigation revealed just how deep the deception went – fake records, manipulated statements, the whole nine yards. He didn’t just steal money; he built an entire fake business to do it.

The 20-year sentence sends a clear message about crypto fraud. Federal prosecutors are taking these cases seriously, especially when they involve this much money and this many victims. Palafox won’t be getting out anytime soon.

Asset forfeiture proceedings are still moving forward. Authorities want to grab everything they can that’s connected to the fraud. Properties, bank accounts, whatever’s left. The more they recover, the better chance victims have of getting something back.

The case shows how easy it is for scammers to exploit people’s excitement about cryptocurrency. High returns sound great until you realize they’re impossible. Palafox counted on that greed, and it worked for almost two years before everything fell apart.

The Ponzi scheme landscape has shifted dramatically since cryptocurrency entered the picture. Federal prosecutors have charged over 150 crypto-related fraud cases since 2019, with total losses exceeding $3.8 billion according to Justice Department data. Bitcoin’s price volatility creates perfect cover for these scams – when legitimate crypto investments swing wildly, fake returns don’t look suspicious.

Palafox’s operation mirrors other major crypto frauds like BitConnect and OneCoin, which collectively bilked investors out of billions. The FBI’s Cyber Division now dedicates entire task forces to tracking cryptocurrency fraud, working with international partners to freeze assets before scammers can move them offshore. Recovery rates remain low though – most victims in similar cases get back less than 30 cents per dollar lost.

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Solana price is catching its breath after a ferocious multi‑month rally, slipping back toward the mid‑$80s as traders reassess how much upside is left in one of this cycle’s most aggressive beta plays. The pullback is sharp, but it is not disorderly; it looks like a market that simply ran too far, too fast.

Summary

Solana price slips toward the mid-$80s after an aggressive multi-month run, with YCharts showing a near 56% drawdown from a year ago. Polymarket contracts still price meaningful odds of SOL above $160 and even new all-time highs by end-2026, highlighting a wide distribution of outcomes. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices frame Solana inside a broader macro risk-on tape, with high Solana volumes keeping liquidity conditions supportive. Solana price cools, prediction markets stay bold As of early U.S. trading, Solana (SOL) changes hands around $86.07, down 4.4% on the session, after trading near $90.03 24 hours ago. Perplexity Finance data show a 24‑hour range between roughly $84.41 and $86.57, with spot market cap hovering near $48.55B and volumes around $57.32M. YCharts puts Solana’s daily reference price at $85.94 for February 16, down from $88.16 yesterday and dramatically below roughly $194.43 a year ago, a drawdown of about 55.8%.

Despite that drawdown, prediction markets have not written Solana off. A Polymarket market asking whether Solana will hit a fresh all‑time high by December 31, 2026, prices that probability near 16%, while a separate contract on “What price will Solana hit in 2026?” shows traders assigning roughly 32% odds to SOL trading above $160 before year‑end 2026. In that market, downside brackets such as “↓ 60” and “↓ 40” still command substantial probability, underscoring that “the path to new highs is anything but linear.”

Macro risk lens and wider crypto tape This recalibration comes as digital assets continue to trade as the purest expression of macro risk appetite. Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering around $68,000–$69,000, with 24‑hour highs just above $69,000 and lows near $68,150, on roughly $37.8B in trading volume across major BTC/USD venues. Ethereum (ETH) changes hands close to $1,970–$1,975, after printing a 24‑hour high near $2,095.87 and a low around $1,933.97, with market cap near $237B. Solana (SOL) itself trades in the mid‑$80s, with Metamask data putting spot near $85.43 and 24‑hour volumes approaching $9.75B, a sign that “high 24h volume… improves liquidity and reduces slippage for traders.

Solana RWA tokenization efforts intensify Solana’s RWA tokenization value smashing the 1.66 billion dollar mark reinforces the chain’s narrative as real financial infrastructure, not just a speculative L1, and that matters for SOL’s future pricing power. As more real-world assets settle and trade on Solana, fee revenue, demand for blockspace, and (crucially) the incentive to hold SOL for staking and governance all scale with it, giving fundamentals a chance to catch up with and eventually justify higher valuations in the next risk-on phase.

Crypto investment products failed to attract enough inflows last week to reverse negative sentiment and clocked a fourth consecutive week of outflows.

Crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) recorded $173 million in outflows, following the previous week’s $187 million, according to a CoinShares update on Monday.

Although the last two weeks brought relatively minor losses, total outflows over the past four weeks now amount to about $3.8 billion, while total assets under management (AUM) stand at about $133 billion, the lowest since April 2025.

CoinShares’ head of research, James Butterfill, attributed last week’s outflows to broad market negativity and ongoing price weakness. After starting last week at $70,000, Bitcoin (BTC) briefly dropped as low as $65,000 on Thursday, according to Coinbase data.

Bitcoin leads outflows, while XRP and Solana buck the trendBitcoin ETPs drove last week’s negative sentiment, with outflows totaling $133.3 million and AUM declining to about $106 billion.

US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) painted an even bleaker picture, with outflows approaching $360 million last week, according to SoSoValue data.

Weekly crypto ETP flows by asset as of Friday (in millions of US dollars). Source: CoinSharesEchoing Bitcoin’s trend, Ether (ETH) funds recorded $85 million in outflows, though US spot Ether ETFs saw modest inflows of $10 million.

XRP (XRP) and Solana (SOL) ETPs bucked the trend, emerging as the top performers with inflows of $33.4 million and $31 million, respectively.

US crypto products saw more than $400 million in outflowsButterfill highlighted a significant divergence in sentiment between the US and other regions.

While US crypto investment products saw $403 million in outflows, all other regions recorded sizable inflows totaling $230 million.

Weekly crypto ETP flows by country as of Friday (in millions of US dollars). Source: CoinSharesGermany, Canada and Switzerland saw the largest gains, with inflows of $115 million, $46 million and $37 million, respectively.

The outflows came amid Standard Chartered analysts officially lowering their 2026 Bitcoin target from $150,000 to $100,000 last week, while forecasting the crypto asset to drop to $50,000 before recovering.

Magazine: Did a Hong Kong fund kill Bitcoin? Bithumb’s ‘phantom’ BTC: Asia Express

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy

4 US Economic Signals That Could Move Bitcoin in the President’s Day Holiday Week Prefer us on Google

FOMC minutes may shift rate-cut expectations.Jobless claims signal labor strength or slowdown.GDP and PCE data could spark Bitcoin volatility.Bitcoin is entering a pivotal macro week as it hovers near $68,600 on February 16, 2026. After a volatile start to the year, including a sharp retracement from 2025 highs above $126,000, markets remain highly sensitive to US economic data.

Tariff tensions, sticky inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause rate cuts have kept risk assets on edge. With US markets closed Monday for Presidents’ Day, liquidity is thinner than usual, a factor that could amplify volatility once major data begins midweek.

US Economic Data Crypto Traders Must Watch This WeekTraders are focused on four key releases: the January FOMC minutes on Wednesday, initial jobless claims on Thursday, and Friday’s Q4 GDP revision alongside December PCE inflation.

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US Economic Data to Watch This Week. Source: Market WatchAccording to CME FedWatch data, markets are pricing just 9.8% odds of a March rate cut, reflecting skepticism that easing is imminent.

March Interest Rate Cut Probabilities. Source: CME FedWatch ToolIn this environment, even modest surprises could determine whether Bitcoin tests $70,000 resistance or revisits the $60,000 support zone.

FOMC Minutes The release of the January FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee)minutes will likely set the week’s tone.

The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% during its last meeting, signaling caution amid resilient growth and persistent services inflation.

FOMC minutes on Wednesday will provide deeper insight into policymakers’ internal debates, particularly around inflation risks, labor strength, and tariff-related pressures.

A hawkish tone emphasizing sticky inflation or upside risks could reinforce “higher for longer” expectations. Historically, similar signals have triggered 3–5% Bitcoin pullbacks within 24 hours as Treasury yields rise and liquidity expectations tighten.

Conversely, any language suggesting balanced risks or growing concern over slowing growth could revive rate-cut speculation.

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In holiday-thinned trading conditions, even subtle dovish cues may be enough to push Bitcoin toward $70,000.

Initial Jobless ClaimsThursday’s jobless claims report offers a real-time snapshot of labor market health, a core pillar of the Fed’s dual mandate.

Consensus expects roughly 220,000 new filings for the week ending February 14, down from 227,000 previously.

BREAKING: Preliminary US Initial Jobless Claims for 1st week of February: 227,000, down 5,000, but above market expectations of 222,000.

The increase could be attributed to business disruptions from winter storms, which prompted households to apply for unemployment benefits.… pic.twitter.com/TvB8olOII0

— Truflation (@truflation) February 12, 2026 A reading below 210,000 would reinforce labor resilience and reduce the likelihood of near-term easing. That outcome could pressure Bitcoin 1–3% lower as markets recalibrate rate-cut expectations.

On the other hand, claims above 230,000 would raise concerns about softening employment conditions. In past cycles, weaker labor prints have boosted risk assets on the assumption that the Fed may pivot sooner. Such a scenario could lift Bitcoin 2–4% as easing bets increase.

With BTC consolidating between $68,000 and $69,000, this release may serve as a bridge between Wednesday’s Fed insight and Friday’s inflation data.

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Q4 2025 GDP (Final Revision)Friday’s final Q4 GDP revision is expected to show +2.5% annualized growth, a significant step down from the initial +4.4% estimate.

A downside surprise below 2.3% would reinforce slowdown narratives and potentially boost Bitcoin 3–6% as markets price in earlier policy relief. Softer consumer spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of GDP, would be closely watched.

However, a print above 2.7% could complicate the outlook. Strong growth may delay easing, reinforcing “higher for longer” expectations and weighing on crypto markets.

Bitcoin remains highly correlated with equities during major macro releases. Strong growth combined with persistent inflation has historically triggered short-term BTC pullbacks.

PCE & Core PCEThe week’s most important catalyst arrives with December’s PCE inflation report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Expectations call for +0.3% month-over-month increases in both headline and core PCE, with year-over-year readings around 2.8–2.9%.

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A cooler-than-expected 0.2% MoM print would signal further disinflation progress. That outcome could meaningfully increase the probability of a rate cut and spark a 4–8% Bitcoin rally, potentially pushing prices decisively above $70,000.

But a hotter print above 0.3% would reinforce sticky inflation concerns, likely triggering 3–5% downside pressure as yields climb and easing hopes fade.

Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, will carry particular weight for policymakers and traders alike.

From Fed messaging to labor resilience, growth revisions, and inflation data, each release feeds directly into expectations for 2026 monetary policy.

With Bitcoin stabilizing near $68,600 but still well below its 2025 highs, the market remains acutely sensitive to liquidity signals.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: BeInCryptoDovish surprises across the board could reignite risk appetite and drive a breakout toward $70,000 and beyond. Hawkish data, however, may deepen the correction toward $60,000–$65,000.

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Posted: February 16, 2026

Cardano [ADA], which lost 5% in the past 24 hours, is still struggling a week after falling out of the top 10 most-capped cryptos.

The gap between ADA and Bitcoin Cash [BCH], which is at position ten, was widening as it was more than $1.20 billion.

The altcoin has persistently displayed weakness, yet the recent support level may mark a significant turning point.

Cardano holds above a key support level On the three-day chart, Cardano was trading above a demand zone that bulls had defended since mid-2023. The zone at $0.244 initiated the move that reached $1.186 as 2024 came to a close.

On the 4-hour chart, the $0.537 zone was above where the current downtrend started. Price broke above this descending trendline resistance and was retesting it.

However, the altcoin was trading between the two short-term EMAs. Cardano had broken below the 9 EMA, but the 21 EMA was still holding strong.

Source: TradingView

On the capital flow side, money was moving into ADA, as seen in the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which was at 0.15. This was evident from the data on ADA Futures: longs vs. shorts.

Whales and retail go long  Whales, retail, and smart money had different views. However, in some instances, whales and retail appeared to align, while smart money remained generally bearish.

As per CoinGlass data, the Long/Short Ratio on Binance was bullish, with retail at 2.48, whale accounts at 2.77, and whale positions at 1.58. Smart money sentiment was extremely bearish even on Bybit.

Source: CoinGlass

OKX and Bybit had the same sentiment, but whale positions on both were bearish, at 0.78 and 0.97, respectively. This meant that whales and retail were buying while smart money was selling.

Apart from the lack of clarity in the price direction due to this mixed sentiment, activity was also not looking promising.

As per data from Token Terminal, the daily trading volume of the past week has been growing gradually. This was after a drop from the week’s high of $614 million.

When writing, the volume was at $549 million, a gradual increase from this week’s daily low of $364 million.

Source: Token Terminal

Additionally, active addresses have been stagnant since last year in March, even though there have been a few spikes. There were only 17,691 active addresses on the day.

Source: DefiLlama

Moreover, its stablecoin market cap had not shown growth since August of 2025. This indicated that liquidity could be a problem despite the high cumulative trading volume.

Final Summary Cardano trades above its most important support level with whales and retail going long.  ADA was experiencing lagging network activity, which explained why the altcoin had dropped so hard. 

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Is quantum risk priced into Bitcoin? Partially, signals suggest mixed discountingAnalysts increasingly argue that quantum computing risk is partially reflected in Bitcoin’s valuation, especially where it intersects with scarcity and long-horizon store-of-value narratives relative to gold. In practice, “priced in” implies investors apply a discount or risk premium to potential cryptographic threats that could impair custody or confidence.

Pricing is rarely binary. Some allocation committees and risk disclosures treat quantum as a structural headwind, while others frame it as a distant, mitigable technology risk. The result is a mixed market signal rather than a clear consensus.

What “priced in” quantum risk means for scarcityScarcity is not only about a fixed 21 million supply; it also depends on credible ownership and safe transfer. If a future cryptographically relevant quantum computer undermined signature security, theft fears or loss events could erode effective, circulating scarcity.

According to Coinbase Research, roughly 6.5 million BTC, about 30–33% of supply, are potentially exposed today due to public key visibility in certain address types. This risk targets signature schemes (e.g., ECDSA), not Bitcoin’s proof-of-work issuance or consensus rules. Vulnerability does not equal imminent loss; it highlights why key hygiene and upgrade paths matter to perceived scarcity.

If investors expect part of the stock to be harder to safeguard until upgrades land, they may discount those UTXOs, favoring fresh addresses, minimized key reuse, and custodians with proactive migration plans. That discounting is one way “priced in” scarcity adjustments can appear without a headline shock.

BingX: a trusted exchange delivering real advantages for traders at every level.

Market signals: ETF flows, futures basis, SOPR, leveraged shortsETF inflows alongside heavy leveraged short positioning and a stabilizing Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) point to competing forces on near-term direction, news/crypto/”>crypto.news/bitcoin-faces-quantum-scrutiny-as-leveraged-shorts-eye-liquidation-risk-zone/” target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow noopener”>as reported by crypto.news. The same coverage notes CME gap levels are in focus for traders, adding tactical complexity to any quantum-related narrative.

The difference in futures basis between CME and Deribit reflects varying risk appetite across regions, according to CoinDesk. That divergence can echo how onshore institutions versus offshore participants hedge tail risks, including low-probability technology shocks, though it does not isolate quantum as the driver.

At the time of this writing, Bitcoin traded near $68,996 with very high short-term volatility and neutral momentum readings. Such conditions can amplify how quickly narratives, quantum-related or otherwise, filter into pricing.

Post-quantum roadmap and institutional positioningDevelopers and institutions are mapping a post-quantum path that balances security, compatibility, and coordination costs. The roadmap spans new signature primitives, key rotation practices, and staged migrations designed to minimize disruption.

Developer groundwork and mitigation timelineTechnically, Bitcoin can introduce post-quantum signatures via soft-forkable extensions and new address types, then encourage rotation away from exposed public keys. Coordination across wallets, custodians, and exchanges is essential to scale the transition smoothly.

Timelines remain uncertain because credible quantum attacks require advances far beyond today’s machines. The prudent stance is parallel planning: continue research, test PQC schemes, and prepare operational playbooks while monitoring hardware progress.

BlackRock, Grayscale, Jefferies: disclosures and reallocationsLarge managers have begun formalizing the risk in different ways. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust filing lists “quantum computing risk” among potential long-term threats to digital asset cryptography, an explicit acknowledgment in a regulated risk-factor format.

Grayscale’s 2026 outlook frames quantum as real but unlikely to affect market valuations in 2026, emphasizing long-dated uncertainty and upgradeability. Jefferies’ Christopher Wood removed Bitcoin from a long-term model portfolio and reallocated to gold, citing quantum as a structural concern, as reported by Business Insider.

FAQ about quantum computing riskHow would a cryptographically relevant quantum computer threaten Bitcoin’s security and effective scarcity?It could break ECDSA signatures that protect exposed public keys, enabling theft from vulnerable addresses and weakening perceived scarcity until post-quantum safeguards are adopted.

What is the realistic timeline for quantum attacks on Bitcoin, and can Bitcoin migrate to post-quantum cryptography in time?Estimates vary widely. Planning is underway, and Bitcoin can add post-quantum signatures and rotate keys, but exact timing depends on hardware progress and network-wide coordination.

DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.

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Dogecoin trades at $0.1027 as of writing, down 10.54% in the past 24 hours, even as it holds a 9.01% gain over the last seven days. The meme coin has also declined 25.34% in the past 30 days, giving back part of its recent recovery and placing immediate focus on the $0.10 support zone.

The latest pullback followed a failed attempt to break above $0.1175. After that rejection, DOGE slipped below $0.1120 and $0.1080, triggering a fresh downside correction. Despite the drop, price action remains above the $0.10 level and the 100-hour simple moving average, a technical detail traders continue to monitor closely.

Double Confluence at $0.10 SupportOn the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair, a horizontal support is in play, and a bullish trendline is forming with support near $0.10. Market data shows buyers stepping in around this zone. The question now centers on whether this level can continue to absorb selling pressure.

Source: TradingView

If DOGE stabilizes above $0.10, analysts suggest the token could attempt another short-term push higher. However, a decisive break below this threshold could open the door to further downside. The price structure currently reflects a tug-of-war between short-term sellers locking in gains and buyers defending a critical technical floor.

Short-term volatility often defines meme coin cycles. Still, technical levels frequently guide momentum shifts. For now, the $0.10 region stands as the line separating renewed optimism from extended weakness.

Trendline Retest Could Offer a Fresh SurgeOn the daily chart, DOGE recently broke above a descending trendline before pulling back to retest it as support. Traders often interpret this pattern as a textbook breakout confirmation. When former resistance flips into support, it reinforces the validity of the move.

The retest appears to have held so far. If DOGE maintains this structure, analysts anticipate the potential for a stronger upward leg. Yet confirmation requires sustained price action above the reclaimed trendline.

Source: TradingView via X

This setup has drawn attention because it mirrors previous consolidation and breakout phases. In earlier cycles, similar structures preceded accelerated rallies. Whether history repeats remains uncertain, but chart watchers continue to track the pattern closely.

Weekly Wedge Structure at Key SupportOn the weekly timeframe, @Ali charts point to a large wedge formation. Historically, DOGE has respected wedge patterns, with prior breaks leading to sharp upside expansions. The current price now sits near the support of this broader structure.

Source: Ali Charts via X

@Ali Charts highlighted that previous interactions with this wedge produced upward breakouts. If DOGE breaks above the upper boundary again, momentum could shift rapidly. Still, wedge patterns require confirmation through volume and follow-through price action.

Looking Back at Past CyclesHistorical cycle analysis adds another layer to the discussion. In earlier bull markets, DOGE delivered significant multiples. The first major cycle produced a 95x move. The second cycle surged roughly 310x. Market participants now speculate about what a third cycle could bring if the broader crypto market turns favorable.

Source: Parody / Elon Musk via X

Such projections rely on pattern repetition and macro conditions aligning. With the broader market experiencing mixed momentum, traders remain cautious while monitoring support levels.

For now, Dogecoin is at a key level. The $0.10 support, daily trendline retest, and weekly wedge structure converge at a pivotal moment. That’s quality confluence. Will buyers defend this zone decisively, or will sellers push the token lower? Let's see what the next few sessions decide at the current market price.